EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011 [Archive] - Page 28

qblogfan

09-01-2011, 02:32 PM

Just now I searched EB1-C forum and found EB1 only takes 2 months to get approval. One guy submitted his application in June 22nd and already got approved! I think they are rushing to use all the visa numbers on EB1 and EB2 ROW. Frankly they could have waited some time on these EB1/EB2 ROW, but they don't want EB2 I&C to use the 12k visas left. They are rushing to use all the 12k on EB1/EB2 ROW. Even with this speed, I suspect some visas may go wasted this year. They are approving EB1/EB2 ROW at SUPER HIGH SPEED!

They control EB2C-I too tightly and we were supposed to move to 7/1/2011 or even later using the 12k visa numbers, but they decided to hold off on EB2 C/I, instead they chose to rush on EB1/EB2 ROW. Apparently they are RUSHING on EB1/EB2 ROW!

Here is one EB1 case they approved: only 2 months!
EB1-a， TSC
140 Received Date 06/22/2011
485 Received Date 06/30/2011
Fingerprint Date 08/16/2011
140 Approval Date 08/24/2011
485 Approval Date 08/24/2011
Green Card Received Date 08/29/2011

Q and other Gurus,

Would it help if we make an appointment with the CIS Ombudsman regarding this issue?

gcseeker

09-01-2011, 02:51 PM

Fantastic posts Teddy and Q

Proven beyond doubt that USCIS is on purpose not doing quarterly spillovers. I always beleived strongly (without the benefit of the great number crunching you folks do) that politics and policy are playing an much much bigger role.

1.For me it is no surprise 245-I is causing havoc.There have been articles about Illegal Indian immigration .Latimes had a very good article.This trend continues even now.If you read the article some of the Indians tried to settle in south america during the last decade and then use the porous border to illegally (yes ilegally move ) into the Usa.This trend has been there pre 2001 since families used to move into South america and then illegally immigrate into Usa.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/06/nation/la-na-border-indians-20110206

Also with the new intiative announced by the Obama administration please note even without 245-I .Illegals will get the chance to get an EAD.Now if they are Indians as the above article shows.The numbers might not be small and will have to come from the spillover quota.The article talks about few thousands in the last year itself.

2.For me it is also no surprise this nation rewards the illegals more than people who follow the rules. Votebank politics is present very much here too and one of the user's (Gcq) rightly pointed out that Grassley and Obama are buddies ...shaking hands from opposite side of the aisles.Union politics and Anti immigrant rhetoric coupled with the scapegoating syndrome of Corporate america which needs a fall guy will always provide an safe cover for USCIS which has to answer to its political bosses.

This is also the reason 50K visas are given to the diversity lottery from which India and China are excluded. Rep (R) Daryl Issa's bill tried to stop that but did not even get through the judicial sub committee.

3.Teddy and Nishant are also right on the porting .2900 apps coupled with family members will easly give 6K. Also people with 15 yrs experience waiting in line will be frustated enough to ditch the EAD life and get an GC finally.I would not blame them.

I have strongly learnt to keep my sanity intact and my blood pressure in check by making sure ....the most realistic or borderline pessimistic expectation from USCIS is expected. Teddy is absolutely right in Oct 2007 being the mark that might not get breached.The numbers back it up, the politics backs it up, USCIS's behaviour backs it up, the election year backs it up.

I love one quote from Soggadu "aaya to aaya baaki sab maaya" which has helped me maintain my calm .Its the long weekend folks.Have a good one and stay peaceful.

Friends 2 things here. Firstly most of us are aware that South Korea consistently gets more that 2.8K in EB2 because of the definition of retrogressed county being at EB + FB level. For Mexico and Philippines since these countries are classified as retrogressed at EB + FB level their EB utilization is limited to 7% of 140K for EB. Now since these countries do not utilize 2.8K each in EB1 and EB2 in EB3 they are allowed to make up for the deficit. Both these countries have been pulling up 7-8K in EB3 consistently over the last few years. So this is a classic case of the 7% rule hitting the countries that were supposed to benefit by it.
245I is the amnesty for those present illegally before Apr 30 2001. Anyone who could prove that he / she was present before this time illegally (Not Legally) and is not involved in any criminal activity could be eligible for AOS. You can imagine that this demand could be potentially never ending, EB3 - I took 5 years to come out of 2001 and for a major part the PD was magnetically stuck to April 2001. Even now looking at the inventory there is demand from Apr 2001. Additionally Iam not sure if someone claimed that they were in US illegally after Apr 2001 what PD would they have. For EB3 ROW there is a lot of hidden demand at local offices and CP I believe a major part of this could be thanks to 245I people in some cases having later PD's but claiming benefit of that statute. Most of us have nothing against undocumented folks we all understand the American Dream and good quality of life here, however this is a very stark contracts we are being subjected to trial by fire at each and every stage after religiously and rigorously following the law while those who broke the law are being rewarded openly for breaking it, worst thing is that atleast the cap numbers for this should have been separate from the quota that legal people have unfortunately it was mixed up with EB3, so you can imagine how unfair this is and insult to injury.

qesehmk

09-01-2011, 04:08 PM

Trackitt trend updated. Pls check http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716 if interested.

I was pleasantly surprised to see YTD consumption coming in at 121 leaving 19K for september across all categories.

Kanmani

09-01-2011, 04:10 PM

If it is going to happen, Yes it should be in FY 2013 . Just a hope . We are not activists , I dont expect anyone here to go for hunger strike to achieve our goal in a month's time .

What else we can do as an individual ?

nishant2200

09-01-2011, 10:15 PM

That sums it up for me. Well said.

Fantastic posts Teddy and Q

Proven beyond doubt that USCIS is on purpose not doing quarterly spillovers. I always beleived strongly (without the benefit of the great number crunching you folks do) that politics and policy are playing an much much bigger role.

1.For me it is no surprise 245-I is causing havoc.There have been articles about Illegal Indian immigration .Latimes had a very good article.This trend continues even now.If you read the article some of the Indians tried to settle in south america during the last decade and then use the porous border to illegally (yes ilegally move ) into the Usa.This trend has been there pre 2001 since families used to move into South america and then illegally immigrate into Usa.

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/feb/06/nation/la-na-border-indians-20110206

Also with the new intiative announced by the Obama administration please note even without 245-I .Illegals will get the chance to get an EAD.Now if they are Indians as the above article shows.The numbers might not be small and will have to come from the spillover quota.The article talks about few thousands in the last year itself.

2.For me it is also no surprise this nation rewards the illegals more than people who follow the rules. Votebank politics is present very much here too and one of the user's (Gcq) rightly pointed out that Grassley and Obama are buddies ...shaking hands from opposite side of the aisles.Union politics and Anti immigrant rhetoric coupled with the scapegoating syndrome of Corporate america which needs a fall guy will always provide an safe cover for USCIS which has to answer to its political bosses.

This is also the reason 50K visas are given to the diversity lottery from which India and China are excluded. Rep (R) Daryl Issa's bill tried to stop that but did not even get through the judicial sub committee.

3.Teddy and Nishant are also right on the porting .2900 apps coupled with family members will easly give 6K. Also people with 15 yrs experience waiting in line will be frustated enough to ditch the EAD life and get an GC finally.I would not blame them.

I have strongly learnt to keep my sanity intact and my blood pressure in check by making sure ....the most realistic or borderline pessimistic expectation from USCIS is expected. Teddy is absolutely right in Oct 2007 being the mark that might not get breached.The numbers back it up, the politics backs it up, USCIS's behaviour backs it up, the election year backs it up.

I love one quote from Soggadu "aaya to aaya baaki sab maaya" which has helped me maintain my calm .Its the long weekend folks.Have a good one and stay peaceful.

nishant2200

09-01-2011, 10:18 PM

Thanks Q. It will be a real shame if 3k go waste. I hope they can do some game in that case.

Trackitt trend updated. Pls check http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716 if interested.

I was pleasantly surprised to see YTD consumption coming in at 121 leaving 19K for september across all categories.

meso129

09-02-2011, 10:33 AM

USCIS Employment Benefits Request Statistics for FY 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/all-form-types-performance-data-2011-june.pdf

USCIS I-140 Approval Statistics by EB Class and Country of Origin (Calendar Year 2008-2011)

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/I-140-data-2011-june.pdf

What doesn't make sense is the number of I-140 approved from 2008 to 2011 Maybe someone has a better explaination

rdsingh79

09-02-2011, 11:09 AM

This data is for consular-processed I-140s.

USCIS Employment Benefits Request Statistics for FY 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/all-form-types-performance-data-2011-june.pdf

USCIS I-140 Approval Statistics by EB Class and Country of Origin (Calendar Year 2008-2011)

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/I-140-data-2011-june.pdf

What doesn't make sense is the number of I-140 approved from 2008 to 2011 Maybe someone has a better explaination

qesehmk

09-02-2011, 12:08 PM

The first report seems right. The second one is clearly messed up.

USCIS Employment Benefits Request Statistics for FY 2011

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/all-form-types-performance-data-2011-june.pdf

USCIS I-140 Approval Statistics by EB Class and Country of Origin (Calendar Year 2008-2011)

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/I-140-data-2011-june.pdf

What doesn't make sense is the number of I-140 approved from 2008 to 2011 Maybe someone has a better explaination

mesan123

09-02-2011, 04:48 PM

According to that report it shows just 372 approved 140 for india and 111 for china for EB2 catogery....that looks very unrelastic...how did they come up with that account...if that is correct...shuld not they make the dates current :) once date moves 15-Aug-2007

I hope when CO asks USCIS, hey, need to move past 15-Aug-2007, how many 140s, need to decide based on that, and they send this report :)

veni001

09-02-2011, 05:54 PM

The first report seems right. The second one is clearly messed up.

Q,
I-140 data is for those requested for CP.

"This quarterly report shows Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker performance data for consular-processed I-140s and does not include any associated dependents. The number of cases approved are displayed by class and beneficiary country of birth."

Dashboard data shows all.

qesehmk

09-02-2011, 07:00 PM

Thanks Veni.
That explains it.

Alright folks .... adios from my space station!! Going in the jungles for a few days :) Have a great weekend!

Q,
I-140 data is for those requested for CP.

Dashboard data shows all.

mesan123

09-05-2011, 09:16 AM

Hi,

sorry for placing in wrong thread...but needed answer asap...as i am travelling to india in one week....
I am planning for my visa stamping in chennai and have one doubt while booking the appointment. I am not able to know whether i can apply for renewal catogery or new application

My case is my H1b Visa stamping expired on sep30th2009 and going now for getting H1b stamping.( i am in USA on my H1b i-94 extension)

below is the way they have given details for appointment selection

Are you applying for the same class of visa which is currently valid or has expired within the past 12 months?*

yes or no( we have to choose one of this)

VISA RENEWAL CATEGORY INFORMATION - Please Read Carefully.

Visa renewal appointments are available to visa applicants who:

Have the same class of U.S. visa which is still valid or that has expired less than 12 months from the scheduled date of interview.

Wish to apply for the same visa class (e.g. had an H1 work visa, now applying again for an H1 work visa)
Are Indian nationals (hold Indian passports)
Are resident in the New Delhi, Chennai or Mumbai consular districts (Applicants attending the interview at the U.S. Consulates in Kolkata and Hyderabad do not have an option to select the option for visa renewal. They may opt for a regular interview).

The following applicants do NOT qualify for appointments in the visa renewal category:
Applicants who have never had a US visa.

Applicants who have a U.S. visa that expired more than 12 months ago.
Applicants whose last valid visa has been either cancelled or revoked.
Applicants applying for a different visa class (e.g. had a F1 student visa, now applying for a H1 work visa).
Non Indian passport holders
Applicants applying at the U.S. Consulates in Kolkata and Hyderabad.
First time H4 or L2 applicants over 18 years of age. (If you have recently married an H1b or L1 visa holder but have never had a visa interview for an H4 visa or L2 visa, you may not schedule in the renewal category.)
Applicants applying for more than one visa at the same time (e.g. F and B1/B2).
Applicants applying for entertainment/performance visas(P3 category).
Applicants applying for unskilled worker visas (H2b category).
Applicants who have lost their previous passports that had the valid / expired US visa.

CAN ANYONE OF YOU PLEASE LET ME KNOW WHICH OPTION I SHULD CHOOSE...if anyone of you went for stamping in last few months please share your expericne as well
( the problem is my lawyer is in vacation , my company is not H1b based(only 8-10% of total employees or on h1b) so my HR is not 100% sure which option i shuld choose

TeddyKoochu

09-05-2011, 09:46 AM

TeddyKoochu

09-05-2011, 09:49 AM

Friends the October VB is almost round the corner. EB2 China may move by 2 weeks as their inventory for April is ~ 250. EB2 India will mostly remain static for some time, good luck to all.

veni001

09-05-2011, 11:05 AM

mesan123

09-05-2011, 01:28 PM

Thank you Teddy

Refer to the following point - Have the same class of U.S. visa which is still valid or that has expired less than 12 months from the scheduled date of interview.

Based on this your case is that of a new applicant as your visa expired in Sep 2009 which is more than a year from now or the prospective interview date.

qesehmk

09-05-2011, 08:46 PM

That's brutal but true.

Teddy,
Agree, EB2I can skip checking next 6 visa bulletins :).

nishant2200

09-05-2011, 09:00 PM

Teddy,
Agree, EB2I can skip checking next 6 visa bulletins :).

I agree, in a way though, the later gates open may turn out timing wise good for some. Let me explain. Suppose a month already in Q3, they come to extrapolation of say 20k SO possibly. If they have not moved dates till then, they would be blind to PWMB hidden demand, also they would be on the threshold of around 4-5 months processing times expectancy of I-485. So they could then potentially move dates farther then actually would rest at, enabling more people to get EADs.

qblogfan

09-05-2011, 11:39 PM

Yes, it is very likely we will see minimal or no movement before Q3.

We contacted Mr.CO and asked him to do the quarter spillover and make the movement evenly distributed through the four quarters, but he said that the accumulated spillover numbers will be compensated in Q3 and Q4. What he said means two things:

1. It means we can skip all the Visa Bulletins from September to the next April or May. It is very brutal, but it is what CO is doing.
2. A guy with PD 4/14/2007 can get GC almost nine or ten months earlier than a guy with PD 4/16/2007. Is it a fair and humane system?

According to the law, the movement was supposed to appear in Dec, March, June and September. But under CO's personal "law", we will not be able to see any movement until Q3, and the movement is concentrated from May to September.

In Q1 and Q2 of FY 2011, there were around 10k spillover per quarter, but these numbers were not released until May 2011.

I think a steady continuous movement in four quarters is better than sudden movement in late Q3 and Q4.

The whole law is screwed and distored by CO.

Friends the October VB is almost round the corner. EB2 China may move by 2 weeks as their inventory for April is ~ 250. EB2 India will mostly remain static for some time, good luck to all.

qblogfan

09-06-2011, 12:00 AM

Sorry to provide some upsetting thoughts:

I would not be too confident about the "good things" coming out of this.

Mr.CO can do anything he likes and we will not know how he will handle this in the next summer. It's also possible that he may use spillover to solve the EB3 backlog by postponing the admission of new EB2 applicants. EB3 backlog is much worse than EB2 and it does not look good on his book. He may try to balance EB2 and EB3 by using spillover on EB3 next year.

Although I am still hoping he can admit more EB2 next year, you never know what this guy will do. I have followed his comments and actions for many years and he has screwed EB2 C&I for many times.

I agree, in a way though, the later gates open may turn out timing wise good for some. Let me explain. Suppose a month already in Q3, they come to extrapolation of say 20k SO possibly. If they have not moved dates till then, they would be blind to PWMB hidden demand, also they would be on the threshold of around 4-5 months processing times expectancy of I-485. So they could then potentially move dates farther then actually would rest at, enabling more people to get EADs.

qesehmk

09-06-2011, 07:07 AM

qbf

I understand you have some strong opinions about CO - the person and the job he is doing. We don't tell anyone here what to speak and what not to.

But overall the visa bulletin dates are driven by policy and both Visa Office and USCIS (lately). One person may have some influence on it but I doubt it. Criticizing or targeting in a personal manner will not help in any way.

Dont mean to sermon you or anything, but you clearly feel strongly about it and I dont want you to go into a loop over "CO did this"-kind-of-mentality.

Yes, it is very likely we will see minimal or no movement before Q3.

We contacted Mr.CO and asked him to do the quarter spillover and make the movement evenly distributed through the four quarters, but he said that the accumulated spillover numbers will be compensated in Q3 and Q4. What he said means two things:

1. It means we can skip all the Visa Bulletins from September to the next April or May. It is very brutal, but it is what CO is doing.
2. A guy with PD 4/14/2007 can get GC almost nine or ten months earlier than a guy with PD 4/16/2007. Is it a fair and humane system?

According to the law, the movement was supposed to appear in Dec, March, June and September. But under CO's personal "law", we will not be able to see any movement until Q3, and the movement is concentrated from May to September.

In Q1 and Q2 of FY 2011, there were around 10k spillover per quarter, but these numbers were not released until May 2011.

I think a steady continuous movement in four quarters is better than sudden movement in late Q3 and Q4.

The whole law is screwed and distored by CO.

Sorry to provide some upsetting thoughts:

I would not be too confident about the "good things" coming out of this.

Mr.CO can do anything he likes and we will not know how he will handle this in the next summer. It's also possible that he may use spillover to solve the EB3 backlog by postponing the admission of new EB2 applicants. EB3 backlog is much worse than EB2 and it does not look good on his book. He may try to balance EB2 and EB3 by using spillover on EB3 next year.

Although I am still hoping he can admit more EB2 next year, you never know what this guy will do. I have followed his comments and actions for many years and he has screwed EB2 C&I for many times.

TheTexan

09-06-2011, 08:40 AM

Q,

You beat me to this. I seriously doubt that CO can do whatever he wants. He must be answerable to someone. We should not let emotions cloud the analytical process. Just my 2 cents.

Spectator

09-06-2011, 09:14 AM

Friends the October VB is almost round the corner. EB2 China may move by 2 weeks as their inventory for April is ~ 250. EB2 India will mostly remain static for some time, good luck to all.Teddy,

That seems to be the truth.

I still have a lingering doubt that the situation may be even worse. Before continuing, I will say that the error margin in calculating numbers is large enough to make the following completely inaccurate. I am just throwing out my worst thoughts.

Originally, I had thought that CO might have allowed approval of all EB2-IC cases to the Cut Off Date and pushed a number of EB1/EB2-ROW-MP cases into FY2012. The August consumption makes me doubt that scenario.

At the end of August, EB1 appears to have consumed c. 26.2k and EB2-ROW-MP c. 27.8k.

If we consider that EB5 will consume 4k, then consumption by EB1/EB2-ROW-MP/EB5 to the end of August is 58k out of 84.4k available for the year.

That leaves 26.4k spillover and with the 5.6k EB2-IC allocation, 32k SOFAD at the end of August.

We are perhaps expecting at least 12k EB1/EB2-ROW-MP approvals in August/September. In August, consumption by EB1/EB2-ROW-MP was c. 7.8k.

If we allow a further 4.2k in September, then available SOFAD drops to 27.8k.

That is not enough to cover the number of visas needed for approval of all cases to the 15APR07 Cut Off Date announced in the August VB and unchanged in the September VB, whatever level of Porting/PWMB approvals are added on top.

The conclusion would be that FY2012 will not start with 8k EB2-IC demand (as shown in the September Demand Data), but a figure somewhat higher than that.

If that is the case, the outlook for EB2-IC in FY2012 becomes even bleaker.

I will be very interested to see the October Demand Data, which should show the remaining numbers estimated going into FY2012. Will CO be brave enough to show an increase - I'm not sure. If it does, we can expect a note about it in the VB.

If the numbers do increase, even EB2-C is unlikely to move in the October VB. In the worst case, EB2-I might retrogress, although I don't think that will happen.

PS Q, Welcome back from the jungle!

qesehmk

09-06-2011, 09:49 AM

As voted last month, we donated to Hrudaya, $100 today. For more info and suggestions pls see
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=8139#post8139

TeddyKoochu

09-06-2011, 10:03 AM

Teddy,

That seems to be the truth.

I still have a lingering doubt that the situation may be even worse. Before continuing, I will say that the error margin in calculating numbers is large enough to make the following completely inaccurate. I am just throwing out my worst thoughts.

Originally, I had thought that CO might have allowed approval of all EB2-IC cases to the Cut Off Date and pushed a number of EB1/EB2-ROW-MP cases into FY2012. The August consumption makes me doubt that scenario.

At the end of August, EB1 appears to have consumed c. 26.2k and EB2-ROW-MP c. 27.8k.

If we consider that EB5 will consume 4k, then consumption by EB1/EB2-ROW-MP/EB5 to the end of August is 58k out of 84.4k available for the year.

That leaves 26.4k spillover and with the 5.6k EB2-IC allocation, 32k SOFAD at the end of August.

We are perhaps expecting at least 12k EB1/EB2-ROW-MP approvals in August/September. In August, consumption by EB1/EB2-ROW-MP was c. 7.8k.

If we allow a further 4.2k in September, then available SOFAD drops to 27.8k.

That is not enough to cover the number of visas needed for approval of all cases to the 15APR07 Cut Off Date announced in the August VB and unchanged in the September VB, whatever level of Porting/PWMB approvals are added on top.

The conclusion would be that FY2012 will not start with 8k EB2-IC demand (as shown in the September Demand Data), but a figure somewhat higher than that.

If that is the case, the outlook for EB2-IC in FY2012 becomes even bleaker.

I will be very interested to see the October Demand Data, which should show the remaining numbers estimated going into FY2012. Will CO be brave enough to show an increase - I'm not sure. If it does, we can expect a note about it in the VB.

If the numbers do increase, even EB2-C is unlikely to move in the October VB. In the worst case, EB2-I might retrogress, although I don't think that will happen.

PS Q, Welcome back from the jungle!

Spec thanks for your analysis and thoughts. Aug saw a huge acceleration in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals pretty much in line with the clearance rate of the I140 backlog. The figures speak for themselves.

EB2 ROW
========
Aug 2011 - 68
Aug 2010 - 44

EB1
===
Aug 2011 = 37
Aug 2010 = 18

Looking at the ROW and EB1 figures looks like both definitely consumed their regular monthly allocations. I think this year will see huge optimization and speeding up of I140 backlog, September should see even more acceleration in I140 as the resources are virtually free from approving EB2 I/C I485 cases this time. Now another interesting thing to note is that the 485 process is well optimized PWMB cases those who applied in July are all consistently seeing approvals. From SOFAD considerations Q1 trend will hold the key if the consumption of EB2 ROW and EB1 continues at this kind of rate then Q1 may not generate any SOFAD at all. I would tend to agree more with your SOFAD figure of 32K, looks like everyone before 15-APR-20-07 should see approvals since even the PWMB's are being approved. September won't be adding any EB2 I/C PWMB's anyway. I believe more than anything any movement even by 1 week for China will be a good indicator. If China dates do not move then the scenario of unapproved cases before 15-APR may hold true and China does not have significant porting but in essence 250 per month is a very small number so nothing can be said for sure, we can be sure however if China moves by 2 weeks which can match their inventory for later half of April if this holds true then the agencies did a perfect job in setting the cutoff dates.

Spectator

09-06-2011, 10:18 AM

Spec thanks for your analysis and thoughts. Aug saw a huge acceleration in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals pretty much in line with the clearance rate of the I140 backlog. The figures speak for themselves.

EB2 ROW
========
Aug 2011 - 68
Aug 2010 - 44

EB1
===
Aug 2011 = 37
Aug 2010 = 18

Looking at the ROW and EB1 figures looks like both definitely consumed their regular monthly allocations. I think this year will see huge optimization and speeding up of I140 backlog, September should see even more acceleration in I140 as the resources are virtually free from approving EB2 I/C I485 cases this time. Now another interesting thing to note is that the 485 process is well optimized PWMB cases those who applied in July are all consistently seeing approvals. From SOFAD considerations Q1 trend will hold the key if the consumption of EB2 ROW and EB1 continues at this kind of rate then Q1 may not generate any SOFAD at all. I would tend to agree more with your SOFAD figure of 32K, looks like everyone before 15-APR-20-07 should see approvals since even the PWMB's are being approved. September won't be adding any EB2 I/C PWMB's anyway. I believe more than anything any movement even by 1 week for China will be a good indicator. If China dates do not move then the scenario of unapproved cases before 15-APR may hold true and China does not have significant porting but in essence 250 per month is a very small number so nothing can be said for sure, we can be sure however if China moves by 2 weeks which can match their inventory for later half of April if this holds true then the agencies did a perfect job in setting the cutoff dates.Teddy,

Thanks for your thoughts.

It is definitely a wait and see scenario.

I agree that even PWMB who were able to file in July have seen approvals, which makes the danger to available numbers even greater.

I would point out that the 32k SOFAD I mentioned is as at the end of August. For that amount to remain, we would need to see no more EB1/EB2-ROW-MP approvals in September.

That is my worry, although I will stress again that the error margin is high enough to account for that, which is why i gave a pretty big health warning at the beginning.

As a PS, I saw that CM at us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com also posted something their lawyer said. As with all lawyer statements, it needs to be taken with a large pinch of salt - even CM gives a big warning about it.

CM on September 2,2011

So Hurricane Irene is long gone and we are back up and running.

Here is the information on quick chat that I had with our lawyer friend. As per his info - “EB2-IC with PD post December 2006, who are still not pre-adjudicated or our PWMBs should expect less approval for this fiscal Year. Most of the visa numbers available are close to be exhausted by EB1/EB2-ROW, EB3 approvals, and other remaining is expected to be used by EB2-IC strictly based on Priority Date. Any recent porting cases with old PD will see quick approvals and PD upto December 2006 will see approvals in order of PD depending upon visa numbers available. USCIS is currently working to inform DOS on prorated number of visas request that can be used and total demand post December 2006 that still needs to be catered. Based on available numbers, October VB will stay put or retrogress. Goal for USCIS is reduce oldest EB2-IC backlog as much as possible"

CM- The information presented here in should be taken at your own discretion. I have no other way of rationalizing this. Time will tell. Lately, his information has been pretty accurate. Good Luck
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/08/october-2011-visa-bulletin-predictions.html

sidd21

09-06-2011, 10:46 AM

Q's/Gurus..URGENT ADVICE NEEDED!!!!

Little Background about my case:
MY i-485 application ( where I'm Primary is in appeals due to i-140 denial).....
My Wife became Current in AUGust ( she is primary and her i-140 is approved and i'm dependant).

For My wife's application , we HAD FP done and based on advise we asked the congressman to check the status... They got back to us saying that since my case is in appeals... my wife files is also being sent to Appeals....i feel sick in my stomach as the drama never ends(I feel like crying as i type this)........ I thought that since both are application are different, they will not be connected.

SO will this mess will it cause more delays in getting approvals?... is there anything i can do to stop the delay

whereismygclost

09-06-2011, 10:53 AM

qesehmk

09-06-2011, 11:10 AM

Sid

It surely is discomforting. Worst case is the appeal is denied and they evaluate wifes 140. But denying wife's 140 is going to be tough unless they detect fraud - which is very difficult since fraud would implicate employer more than the beneficiary.

So 99.99% your wife's case will move ahead and should get GC eventually. I guess you can work through congressman to move the case. You can also take infopass to understand what are they doing with those cases right now. In fact you can also call USCIS and just talk with them about your cases. Once your case is current they do talk gently and professionally - just start by saying your case is out of normal processing times (I am assuming you guys filed 485s in 2007 fiasco).

Q's/Gurus..URGENT ADVICE NEEDED!!!!

Little Background about my case:
MY i-485 application ( where I'm Primary is in appeals due to i-140 denial).....
My Wife became Current in AUGust ( she is primary and her i-140 is approved and i'm dependant).

For My wife's application , we HAD FP done and based on advise we asked the congressman to check the status... They got back to us saying that since my case is in appeals... my wife files is also being sent to Appeals....i feel sick in my stomach as the drama never ends(I feel like crying as i type this)........ I thought that since both are application are different, they will not be connected.

SO will this mess will it cause more delays in getting approvals?... is there anything i can do to stop the delay

nishant2200

09-06-2011, 11:32 AM

Teddy, I agree with you, especially the EB2-C indicator.

I believe surely the intention of Visa office is to hold the line at 15-April-2007. They could have very well retrogressed in September Bulletin itself if it was not so.

It will really require the worst case, pointed out by Spec also on these lines in posts earlier, to "force" the DOS to retrogress.

I have heard of cases wherein the beneficiaries are repeatedly informed that your case is waiting for a visa number, even when current, when the pace slows down, so that is a valid reason for them to say to beneficiaries.

Now suppose they go back, have to go back, they have tested the waters till 15-April-2007 and many lucky ones would have got in already, including PWMB. So the next jump in the Q3/Q4 should be able to compensate easily for this backwards movement, which I don't think will be past December 2006, especially judging from CM's post mentioned here by Spec and others. Although I agree that mentally and emotionally, it's a bit of a hurt.

Let's see demand data next.

And of course, the small 0.1% chance that CO decides to intake inventory in October itself, with a strict disclaimer that the movement is solely to intake inventory and anyone from 15-April-2007 onwards will not be getting approved, per a deal worked out with USCIS. My dream, since the 0.1% becomes 0 then on, until Q3 :)

Spec thanks for your analysis and thoughts. Aug saw a huge acceleration in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals pretty much in line with the clearance rate of the I140 backlog. The figures speak for themselves.

EB2 ROW
========
Aug 2011 - 68
Aug 2010 - 44

EB1
===
Aug 2011 = 37
Aug 2010 = 18

Looking at the ROW and EB1 figures looks like both definitely consumed their regular monthly allocations. I think this year will see huge optimization and speeding up of I140 backlog, September should see even more acceleration in I140 as the resources are virtually free from approving EB2 I/C I485 cases this time. Now another interesting thing to note is that the 485 process is well optimized PWMB cases those who applied in July are all consistently seeing approvals. From SOFAD considerations Q1 trend will hold the key if the consumption of EB2 ROW and EB1 continues at this kind of rate then Q1 may not generate any SOFAD at all. I would tend to agree more with your SOFAD figure of 32K, looks like everyone before 15-APR-20-07 should see approvals since even the PWMB's are being approved. September won't be adding any EB2 I/C PWMB's anyway. I believe more than anything any movement even by 1 week for China will be a good indicator. If China dates do not move then the scenario of unapproved cases before 15-APR may hold true and China does not have significant porting but in essence 250 per month is a very small number so nothing can be said for sure, we can be sure however if China moves by 2 weeks which can match their inventory for later half of April if this holds true then the agencies did a perfect job in setting the cutoff dates.

cbpds1

09-06-2011, 12:20 PM

I do think the dates will retrogress as I have a friend with PD Jan 2007 who has not got the GC yet. Retrogress for sure as much as I dont like it happening.

Gclongwait

09-06-2011, 12:27 PM

This is CM's statement from his blog which Spectator is referring to. I hope it is okay to post the same.
"Here is the information on quick chat that I had with our lawyer friend. As per his info - “EB2-IC with PD post December 2006, who are still not pre-adjudicated or our PWMBs should expect less approval for this fiscal Year. Most of the visa numbers available are close to be exhausted by EB1/EB2-ROW, EB3 approvals, and other remaining is expected to be used by EB2-IC strictly based on Priority Date. Any recent porting cases with old PD will see quick approvals and PD upto December 2006 will see approvals in order of PD depending upon visa numbers available. USCIS is currently working to inform DOS on prorated number of visas request that can be used and total demand post December 2006 that still needs to be catered. Based on available numbers, October VB will stay put or retrogress. Goal for USCIS is reduce oldest EB2-IC backlog as much as possible"

CM- The information presented here in should be taken at your own discretion. I have no other way of rationalizing this. Time will tell. Lately, his information has been pretty accurate. Good Luck."

Not sure what the big deal about this is. He is specifically referring to non preadjudicated or PWMB between Jan 2007 and April 15 2007. Per our calculation this is not a large number anyways (1000-2000). If they were not pre-adjudicated then it could also mean RFE etc due to which these people are not ready to be approved, please note they filed only 1-2 months ago (July/Aug bulletin) so it will only be 2/3 months since filing before end of FY which is not enough for all I485 to get processed. This is exactly the reason why it is necessary to do BTM and preadjudicate. If this is the case I do expect higher EB3 movement and approvals.

leo07

09-06-2011, 12:52 PM

one is a very small sample to make a case. do you agree?

cbpds1: "I do think the dates will retrogress as I have a friend with PD Jan 2007 who has not got the GC yet. Retrogress for sure as much as I dont like it happening. "

qesehmk

09-06-2011, 12:59 PM

As per the trackitt trend updated recently under FACTS and DATA section - I don't see any reason for retrogression. On the other hand Sep needs to show even more EB1 and EB2ROW approvals to make sure that visas don't go waste.

dec2007

09-06-2011, 01:09 PM

suninphx

09-06-2011, 01:16 PM

Dow and Q's blog is in firm bear grip ....numbers back them solidaly at both places unfortunatly..

qesehmk

09-06-2011, 01:43 PM

I think for you it could be 50-50. We will know better when Oct inventory comes out.

My pd is dec 31,2007, eb2i.
Am i correct in interpreting the forum that i might get my date sometime next year.
Really need to take some career and personal decisions soemtime in oct-dec2012.
If there is a chance of getting my date by then, that will be a huge relief.

Dow and Q's blog is in firm bear grip ....numbers back them solidaly at both places unfortunatly..
As much as we try to be objective .... to be honest there is still a lot that we don't know (e.g. current USCIS consumption by country and category) and how much labor and 140 pipeline is actionable. And thirdly something we will never know .... what's the intent that USCIS and DoS are carrying!

On another note - DOW & S&P 500 future earnings may be overstated. But I am layman's layman on that subject... so ignore my ignorance if I am wrong ;)

suninphx

09-06-2011, 01:50 PM

As much as we try to be objective .... to be honest there is still a lot that we don't know (e.g. current USCIS consumption by country and category) and how much labor and 140 pipeline is actionable. And thirdly something we will never know .... what's the intent that USCIS and DoS are carrying!

On another note - DOW & S&P 500 future earnings may be overstated. But I am layman's layman on that subject... so ignore my ignorance if I am wrong ;)

Lol- agree completely on data part. Reminds me of our former VP who used to tell clients in the meetings (on project estimations)... ' there are known unknowns and unknown unknowns'

nishant2200

09-06-2011, 01:53 PM

My pd is dec 31,2007, eb2i.
Am i correct in interpreting the forum that i might get my date sometime next year.
Really need to take some career and personal decisions soemtime in oct-dec2012.
If there is a chance of getting my date by then, that will be a huge relief.

I think you have a good chance of getting EAD in FY 2012 but not 100%. And GC you will get in FY 2013. This is my current state of thought on this. Everything is subject to change based on as and when new information comes in.

qblogfan

09-06-2011, 02:30 PM

Agree, it is not a sure thing. In order to reach 2008 we need at least 30k SOFAD in FY 2012. There are too many variables. Maybe in one day they will tell us there is a sudden new demand or they find some hidden cases, etc.....

I think you have a good chance of getting EAD in FY 2012 but not 100%. And GC you will get in FY 2013. This is my current state of thought on this. Everything is subject to change based on as and when new information comes in.

cbpds1

09-06-2011, 03:19 PM

Visa bulletin says "October 2011 (Coming Soon)" but no one is interested, guess

Recession+GC Bulletin=Depression;

nishant2200

09-06-2011, 03:24 PM

Visa bulletin says "October 2011 (Coming Soon)" but no one is interested, guess

Recession+GC Bulletin=Depression;

cbpds1, did it change today? interesting. I do have interest in this one especially.

gchopeful123

09-06-2011, 03:36 PM

Nobody cares about the Oct bulletin (or the Nov/Dec)...time to chill out for 7 months...

Visa bulletin says "October 2011 (Coming Soon)" but no one is interested, guess

Recession+GC Bulletin=Depression;

nishant2200

09-06-2011, 03:40 PM

Nobody cares about the Oct bulletin (or the Nov/Dec)...time to chill out for 7 months...

There will be some interesting stuff to watch out for though. Like the trends of EB1/EB2ROW, 140 backlog reduction, 140 processing times (SYAs...) for SOFAD extrapolation, data reports like the pending 485 inventory report, EB2C movement, and so on.

leo07

09-06-2011, 05:15 PM

Right. In a way October VB is important, it kind of sets the tone for the rest of the year. It may very well be that the tone is to "Chill out for 7 months" :)

ravisekhar

09-07-2011, 02:21 PM

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011/09/07/2173339/eb-5-flashing-some-green-for-a.html

murali83

09-07-2011, 02:45 PM

http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2011/09/07/2173339/eb-5-flashing-some-green-for-a.html

Hmm, with the economy tanking like this, I for one don't expect this to become a trend. No rich guy, however rich he maybe want to put his buck in a sinking tank unless his life in his home country is hopeless. But hey, if he is filthy rich to put money here, then why would his life be bad back home.

cbpds1

09-07-2011, 03:04 PM

Bad things stay longer with us my friend......it takes years!!

my pd is jan 2008 , for me
today=2 more years;

cbpds1, did it change today? interesting. I do have interest in this one especially.

tanu_75

09-07-2011, 03:27 PM

Hmm, with the economy tanking like this, I for one don't expect this to become a trend. No rich guy, however rich he maybe want to put his buck in a sinking tank unless his life in his home country is hopeless. But hey, if he is filthy rich to put money here, then why would his life be bad back home.

They'll get around the money part, they always do. This will be abused like any other program and in the end it actually will end up doing more harm to the economy than good.

nishant2200

09-07-2011, 03:48 PM

Bad things stay longer with us my friend......it takes years!!

my pd is jan 2008 , for me
today=2 more years;

yeah I know, I keep going back to what I was doing in early 2007, why wasting time and not filed earlier :) A few months of wasting time is going to lead to 2 years of additional wait for me too!

orangeca

09-07-2011, 03:57 PM

Bad things stay longer with us my friend......it takes years!!

my pd is jan 2008 , for me
today=2 more years;

Another similar Story from Yahoo finance, all these guys will also come in EB5 eventually!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Top-of-Chinese-wealthys-wish-apf-3316521730.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

donvar

09-07-2011, 04:28 PM

No person who has earned his money the hard way will spend 500k for a GC. If you can make 500k in a 3rd world country, you are already a king there. So, why would you come here and become a nobody. Also the GC security for kids concept does not fly since you really need to be here for 5 years(at least most of the days per year) to get the citizenship. Make that 7 years if you include the complete process. Besides, that after becoming a citizen of US, you cannot buy property in your own country(true for people of India), and might even have to sell existing property, shares and what not. So, all the run about for what?

Only family i am aware of having gone through the EB5 program earned their money through real estate boom in India, which was more about timing, than any skill or hard work. So, as you can guess, since they got their money by fluke, they are running clueless for the next opportunity, since hard work to earn 500k is something they dont really know.

But many people have made and still making surplus money in real estate boom. They will surely like to utilize this opportunity.

gcseeker

09-07-2011, 04:30 PM

Nishant

You nailed it. The majority of the Investors coming in as mentioned in all three articles are wealthy south asians and europeans. There a lot of people who are making big bucks in the booming economies and can afford to plunk down the 500k for a better standard of life.Some days ago there was an article about the red hot real estate market in certain neighbourhoods of the bay area where houses are being bought as investments by rich south asians from abroad.The phenomenon is the same.

http://www.insidebayarea.com/top-stories/ci_18495548?source=rss

If people can plunk down 500K for a home half way across the world simply as an investment without worrying about risk in a badly bruised market ...they can easily use the same cash to use the gc for an better quality of life.

quote from the article --

""Your real-estate slump makes this a great time for us to buy," said Cathy Li, a stay-at-home mother from Guangzhou, China. Along with her husband, who "works for the government," she bought a $500,000 single-family home in Fremont last year as an investment property. "I think its value will be way up in five years, so I'm telling all my friends this is the time to find good deals in Silicon Valley."

I do not beleive the numbers will surge significantly though they might increase slightly. There have been press articles about using the EB-5 to lift sagging neighbourhoods but nothing much has materialized. The noise coming from USCIS is just window dressing to please their bosses by showcasing it as job spinners.Same with the EB2-Entrepreneur visa category that was recently created.

The type of investors I do see coming in using this route, in current state of economy, is those who want a better quality of life in their eco-system, or those who believe, it's good for their kids future.

cbpds1

09-07-2011, 06:07 PM

Any new EB5 folks wont matter much, they need to stand in queue anyways.

We need to know how many such EB3 folks have more than 500k :)

Spectator

09-07-2011, 07:18 PM

If you look at USCIS dashboard for I526 - only 1200 or so have been filed through Jun 2011, same as prior year. Q,

Those are not the figures I see.

Receipts Oct 10-Jun 11 -- 2,564

That is versus 1,271 receipts in the corresponding period the year before, or 102% higher.

Oct09 --- 165
Nov09 --- 130
Dec09 --- 127
Jan10 --- 118
Feb10 --- 100
Mar10 --- 194
Apr10 --- 140
May10 --- 118
Jun10 --- 179

Total - 1,271

Oct10 --- 200
Nov10 --- 227
Dec10 --- 274
Jan11 --- 254
Feb11 --- 269
Mar11 --- 348
Apr11 --- 355
May11 --- 330
Jun11 --- 307

Total - 2,564

As you say, the pending applications have risen from 677 to 2,611 over 12 months (1,264 in Oct 10).

Completions, however, are only marginally up over the same period the year before (1,303 vs 1,229).

qesehmk

09-07-2011, 08:07 PM

Spec

I meant completions. Original post corrected.

Q,

Those are not the figures I see.

Receipts Oct 10-Jun 11 -- 2,564

That is versus 1,271 receipts in the corresponding period the year before, or 102% higher.

Oct09 --- 165
Nov09 --- 130
Dec09 --- 127
Jan10 --- 118
Feb10 --- 100
Mar10 --- 194
Apr10 --- 140
May10 --- 118
Jun10 --- 179

Total - 1,271

Oct10 --- 200
Nov10 --- 227
Dec10 --- 274
Jan11 --- 254
Feb11 --- 269
Mar11 --- 348
Apr11 --- 355
May11 --- 330
Jun11 --- 307

Total - 2,564

As you say, the pending applications have risen from 677 to 2,611 over 12 months (1,264 in Oct 10).

Completions, however, are only marginally up over the same period the year before (1,303 vs 1,229).

Spectator

09-07-2011, 08:18 PM

Spec

I meant completions. Original post corrected.Looking at the USCIS data recently published, we also have data for I-526 approvals in FY 2011 Q1-Q3.

Q1 ------ 191 --- 18.2%
Q2 ------ 264 --- 25.2%
Q3 ------ 593 --- 56.6%
Total - 1,048 -- 100.0%

I don't know how many will turn into visa issuances in FY2011 (2.9 per I-526) - most EB5 Consular Process, if I remember correctly.

qesehmk

09-08-2011, 08:05 AM

Read this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44422237/ns/business-world_business/t/top-chinese-wealthys-wish-list-leave-china/

In future, I think we shouldnt take EB5 spillover for granted.

veni001

09-08-2011, 09:27 AM

Read this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44422237/ns/business-world_business/t/top-chinese-wealthys-wish-list-leave-china/

In future, I think we shouldnt take EB5 spillover for granted.

Q,
Agreed, but the increasing demand (EB5) may not sustain for a long period!

grnwtg

09-08-2011, 09:30 AM

This might be true in case of China, but probably different case with India.
Example: If you call some friends in India about property buying in USA they tell one thing, property is liablity in USA and Asset in India, same with businesses.
Apart from it India TV channels advertise as if USA is already 2nd world country.

But most positive thing about USA is cheap real estate, if you go to small town, you can get a nice house for 100k with all nice amenites and very private life ( some people like it)

Read this:

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44422237/ns/business-world_business/t/top-chinese-wealthys-wish-list-leave-china/

In future, I think we shouldnt take EB5 spillover for granted.

qblogfan

09-08-2011, 10:39 AM

Both India and China are over populated and have limited resources. We should immigrate and flood the western countries.

My only contribution to my home country is: I am not using any resources from my home country and the resources can be used by others.

This might be true in case of China, but probably different case with India.
Example: If you call some friends in India about property buying in USA they tell one thing, property is liablity in USA and Asset in India, same with businesses.
Apart from it India TV channels advertise as if USA is already 2nd world country.

But most positive thing about USA is cheap real estate, if you go to small town, you can get a nice house for 100k with all nice amenites and very private life ( some people like it)

qesehmk

09-08-2011, 10:56 AM

QBF its funny you say this because I share similar sentiment but from a slightly different perspective.

In a truly/ideally globalized world the resources will be priced efficiently and legal and state barriers will be equalized across all players and so all world citizens can enjoy fruits of globalizations without having to leave their place. But states are too powerful even today and globalization is patchy. A case in point is Libya where had BP or EXXON Mobil had any stake, Libya wouldn't be attacked. Because there is no such stake, Libya is being attacked and the resources will be looted in no time.

And this situation will continue through our lifetimes. And as such without waiting for globalization to arrive, Indians and Chinese need to go and build alliances all over the world including western world. That is the only way to prevent (rather mitigate) wars over resources. Some people will always want to move to other parts of the world and some people will want to move to India and China. And I think India and China should encourage that.

Specific to India, I think India should welcome migrants from neighboring countries and establish a legal immigration program. Because otherwise India is already seeing migration and those millions of Bangladeshis, Pakistanis and Nepalis are living in the shadows. Besides immigration helps establish bridges with other cultures and economies thus reducing threat of misadventure by other countries.

Anyway ... my rather lenghty 2 cents here!

Both India and China are over populated and have limited resources. We should immigrate and flood the western countries.

My only contribution to my home country is: I am not using any resources from my home country and the resources can be used by others.

10102007

09-08-2011, 11:02 AM

Did any of you watch the GOP debate last night on MSNBC? There was an ad in between paid for by the Californians for Population Stabilization. They were calling for slowing down LEGAL immigration.

qblogfan

09-08-2011, 11:28 AM

Yes, I agree.

Globalization is a good thing for India and China. We got many good opportunities and people's life is becoming better.

We share a lot of things in common. Both of our countires have long history and great cultures and we were invaded by western countries in the 1800s and 1900s. We have huge populations of more than 1 billion. Now we are catching up with the west. My Indian friends told me people's life in India is becoming much better with the economic development. At the same time, we are working here and we can wire money and transfer more technologies and information back home. It's a good thing. We should encourage more Chinese and Indian people to immigrate to the western countries. 7% limit won't stop us.

QBF its funny you say this because I share similar sentiment but from a slightly different perspective.

In a truly/ideally globalized world the resources will be priced efficiently and legal and state barriers will be equalized across all players and so all world citizens can enjoy fruits of globalizations without having to leave their place. But states are too powerful even today and globalization is patchy. A case in point is Libya where had BP or EXXON Mobil had any stake, Libya wouldn't be attacked. Because there is no such stake, Libya is being attacked and the resources will be looted in no time.

And this situation will continue through our lifetimes. And as such without waiting for globalization to arrive, Indians and Chinese need to go and build alliances all over the world including western world. That is the only way to prevent (rather mitigate) wars over resources. Some people will always want to move to other parts of the world and some people will want to move to India and China. And I think India and China should encourage that.

Specific to India, I think India should welcome migrants from neighboring countries and establish a legal immigration program. Because otherwise India is already seeing migration and those millions of Bangladeshis, Pakistanis and Nepalis are living in the shadows. Besides immigration helps establish bridges with other cultures and economies thus reducing threat of misadventure by other countries.

Anyway ... my rather lenghty 2 cents here!

qesehmk

09-08-2011, 11:37 AM

Did any of you watch the GOP debate last night on MSNBC? There was an ad in between paid for by the Californians for Population Stabilization. They were calling for slowing down LEGAL immigration.
They were playing to their bases. But at the end of the day Republicans are slightly friendly towards legal immigration compared to Dems.

Yes, I agree.

Globalization is a good thing for India and China. We got many good opportunities and people's life is becoming better.

We share a lot of things in common. Both of our countires have long history and great cultures and we were invaded by western countries in the 1800s and 1900s. We have huge populations of more than 1 billion. Now we are catching up with the west. My Indian friends told me people's life in India is becoming much better with the economic development. At the same time, we are working here and we can wire money and transfer more technologies and information back home. It's a good thing. We should encourage more Chinese and Indian people to immigrate to the western countries. 7% limit won't stop us.
I think globalization should work for everybody - Indians Chinese and non Indians and non Chinese. Then only it will be meaningful. Life in India is certainly becoming better. Just yesterday there was a news that the life expectancy of women in Bihar (inarguably the most backward state in India) has now increased to a level higher than that of men. I thought that was much more symbolic of how average life in India is becoming better. But even more exciting thing that is happening in India is that people are becoming much more aware about their political rights. But for India it is a long journey ahead albeit a promising one.

qblogfan

09-08-2011, 11:38 AM

cbpds1

09-08-2011, 11:50 AM

Done, hope something good comes out of this.

We are signing a petition to the congress. I don't know whether you are aware of it.

http://www.petition2congress.com/4771/retain-high-skilled-legal-

Let's push the visa recapture! All of us will get freedom soon if they can capture lost visas.

indiasunil

09-08-2011, 12:20 PM

Submitted. Lets hope for the best !!..

Done, hope something good comes out of this.

qblogfan

09-08-2011, 12:31 PM

sure! if everybody speaks out, our voice will be heard in the white house and congress.

if we keep quiet, these people will continue to exploit us and we will have to wait forever.

A visa recapture bill can solve all our problems and everybody will be happy.

The white house will respond to petitions signed by more than 5000 people. Now we have 7000 people already. Let's make it even more significant!

Submitted. Lets hope for the best !!..

RRRRRR

09-08-2011, 12:41 PM

Done, thanks for bringing this on board.

We are signing a petition to the congress. I don't know whether you are aware of it.

http://www.petition2congress.com/4771/retain-high-skilled-legal-

Let's push the visa recapture! All of us will get freedom soon if they can capture lost visas.

valuablehurdle

09-08-2011, 12:59 PM

Done!!
I think we should intrduce this thread to the immigrationvoice website too.

jackbrown_890

09-08-2011, 01:03 PM

We are signing a petition to the congress. I don't know whether you are aware of it.

http://www.petition2congress.com/4771/retain-high-skilled-legal-

Let's push the visa recapture! All of us will get freedom soon if they can capture lost visas.

Thanks guys for signing the petition. Wow there was a huge jump in number of people signing the petition today (over 1000)

Q/veni/spector/sugodu---all, please go thru the petition and give me suggestions to modify few of the facts and figures. Because i think some of the stuff is old in this petition (may not be right today). And you guys have better idea about the facts and figures. or if you have any other suggestions to modify and better d petition.

Thanks

jackbrown_890

09-08-2011, 01:07 PM

Done!!
I think we should intrduce this thread to the immigrationvoice website too.

Thanks.
I asked Immigrationvoice admin to promote this but they turned my proposal down. Forget about their support, they even removed the post i had on IV with the link to this petition.
But still without their help there has been over 7000 letters/email sent. WOW.

qesehmk

09-08-2011, 01:28 PM

Jack
Great job!! Here is my editing of the letter. Spec and others please improve it further so that Jack may incorporate some of those suggestions in his petition.

Dear Mr.President and Members of Congress,

We are legal immigrants living in U. S. A for many years, we are paying taxesand helping the economy grow. We would like to be part of the future growth ofthis country. But today we are held back because of unnatural and unreasonableprocessing delays in the legal immigration system. We feel we have been ignoredfor years by the congress and a president along with the general public andmedia. This country has its foundation based on the immigrants from all aroundthe world, and the immigrants have helped keep foundation strong for decades. Unfortunately,this legal immigrant community is struggling to stay in this country. Wesuggest following steps to ease their pain as well as help the US economy byinfusion of this skilled workforce that is ready to buy new houses and othercapital assets which they defer to buy because of lack of certainty.

1) Remove the artificial cap on EB visas.
An artificial cap of 140,000 EB visas exists today. If an employer provesit that a certain skill is lacking in US economy and accordingly hires foreignperson then it doesn’t make sense to subject that skill to an artificial quota.This skill hurts the employers ability to leverage the employee in a better wayas the employee gains even more expertise, AND it hurts the employee by havingthem wait for upto 10-15 years and thus subjecting them to possible abuse bythe employer. We demand that this limit itself be removed in the interest ofthe employers and immigrants which will certainly provide a boost to theeconomy.

2) RemoveThe per country limits
Per country quotas of 7% exists today. It exacerbates the situation to applicantsfrom high-demand countries like India, China, Mexico and Philippines.Approximately just 10,000 visa numbers are available to India whereas it'sestimated that at least 44% of the applicants may be from India (based on USCISstatistics of around 44% of H1bs being granted to India every year). As spouseand children are counted, considering 4 members per family, on an average only2500 Indian applicants get Green cards in a year. As you can see the numbersare dismal. Meaning, if you are from India, China, Mexico or Philippines, youmay have to wait 10 to 12 years to get your Green Card or more

3) Remove Counting of Family Members towards EB visa Cap.
Today Family members (i.e. dependents of the primary EB applicant) arecounted towards the EB cap. It makes the already paltry and artificial EB capeven smaller allowing approximately only 60K true skilled workers to enter theworkforce every year.

4) Capture Wasted Visas from Prior Years
In the last 17 years 218.000 visas have been wasted because of processingdelays between USCIS and DOS. If those visas were captured and used, the entireEB backlog today can be removed thus reducing a significant pain for employersand immigrants.

We are aware that you are aware of the problems but there has not been anyaction taken from the congress or president to help us. Below are fewsuggestions from us, and we request you consider directing congress to act onthem as soon as possible so that we can contribute even better to the growthand prosperity of this country.

Thank you

Thanks guys for signing the petition. Wow there was a huge jump in number of people signing the petition today (over 1000)

Q/veni/spector/sugodu---all, please go thru the petition and give me suggestions to modify few of the facts and figures. Because i think some of the stuff is old in this petition (may not be right today). And you guys have better idea about the facts and figures. or if you have any other suggestions to modify and better d petition.

Thanks

qblogfan

09-08-2011, 01:36 PM

Yes, all the Chinese news, media and social websites in North America are promoting this link. Many of my country fellows have signed this petition today.

I think more will sign in the next few days. The message takes some days to reach everyone. I expect another 5k-10k signatures soon.

All the Chinese legal immigrants are motivated now and our voice will be loud enough to get recapture of lost visas.

Thanks for editing and signing this petition.

Thanks guys for signing the petition. Wow there was a huge jump in number of people signing the petition today (over 1000)

Q/veni/spector/sugodu---all, please go thru the petition and give me suggestions to modify few of the facts and figures. Because i think some of the stuff is old in this petition (may not be right today). And you guys have better idea about the facts and figures. or if you have any other suggestions to modify and better d petition.

Thanks

manubhai

09-08-2011, 01:45 PM

Just signed the petition, added some more of my own text, and also sent 3 printed letters ($3 a piece thanks to rallycongress.com).

I REALLY think more people need to sign this and spend $3-12 to send printed copies. Our biggest weakness is that we are too divided and don't get down to DOING what needs to be done to bring about our change.

You are here because you love this country. Now, go SHOW it by taking 5 minutes and 9 dollars out of your life. Forget about who else is or is not doing it. YOU - do your part.

Btw... just signed up on this forum. You guys are doing a great job.

We are signing a petition to the congress. I don't know whether you are aware of it.

http://www.petition2congress.com/4771/retain-high-skilled-legal-

Let's push the visa recapture! All of us will get freedom soon if they can capture lost visas.

polarbear

09-08-2011, 01:47 PM

Are we seriously thinking that an online petition will make lawmakers (who are driven by real lobbying and advocacy)to introduce a bill? Have we even spoken to a republican or democratic lawmaker and strategized what is the scope and chance in the current political climate for the provisions listed above? What is the legislative strategy behind this? Or do we just expect to get a mass of online, unverified signatures and shoot this into the dark hoping someone (maybe the same lawmakers who have no interest in high-skilled legislation) will figure out the way. I have met my local republican congressman and have been clearly told there is no way a republican held house will approve of anything that is remotely tied to increase EB numbers. The key is to get a congressman to sponsor a bill..tht is the real goal. Any effort is good, but it should be an educated and well-guided one. I sincerely hope the people who started this (or the people who support it expecting that to be their way of contributing to "advocacy") have a true strategy

qesehmk

09-08-2011, 01:54 PM

polarbear, its better to do something than nothing. Also it is better to sign something you can see read and smell than donating to somebody who is not accountable to anybody and who don't give an account of how YOUR money is spent.

So while what you say is right - the question is - Are you only going to be an armchair pundit and say this or are you going to take lead and do it? And its perfectly fine if the answer is NO - most of us are like that. That's why; if somebody else has taken some lead in doing something ... we might as well support it.

Are we seriously thinking that an online petition will make lawmakers (who are driven by real lobbying and advocacy)to introduce a bill? Have we even spoken to a republican or democratic lawmaker and strategized what is the scope and chance in the current political climate for the provisions listed above? What is the legislative strategy behind this? Or do we just expect to get a mass of online, unverified signatures and shoot this into the dark hoping someone (maybe the same lawmakers who have no interest in high-skilled legislation) will figure out the way. I have met my local republican congressman and have been clearly told there is no way a republican held house will approve of anything that is remotely tied to increase EB numbers. The key is to get a congressman to sponsor a bill..tht is the real goal. Any effort is good, but it should be an educated and well-guided one. I sincerely hope the people who started this (or the people who support it expecting that to be their way of contributing to "advocacy") have a true strategy

manubhai

09-08-2011, 01:54 PM

sswaitinggc

09-08-2011, 02:11 PM

When are we expecting Visa Bulletin this month, will it be tomorrow or its going to be next week. qesehmk any intresting news?

qblogfan

09-08-2011, 02:12 PM

yes, I agree.

I think we are doing something constructive. We all need to show support to improve the condition for our EB immigrants.

If we can't take the lead, we need to support this kind of constructive activities.

Even if there is a 1% success rate, we should fight for our EB community.

polarbear, its better to do something than nothing. Also it is better to sign something you can see read and smell than donating to somebody who is not accountable to anybody and who don't give an account of how YOUR money is spent.

So while what you say is right - the question is - Are you only going to be an armchair pundit and say this or are you going to take lead and do it? And its perfectly fine if the answer is NO - most of us are like that. That's why; if somebody else has taken some lead in doing something ... we might as well support it.

Spectator

09-08-2011, 02:22 PM

Can someone explain to me what this document means?
On page 2: the difference between Jan 1, 2008 and Jan 1, 2011 for EB2 China is 50 (3250-3200) and India is 125 (4925-4800).

I am sure there were more than 50 and 125 EB2 applications in those three years from China and India, respectively.

What am I missing???

Link to the PDF: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Original link grabbed from: http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/ivstats/ivstats_4581.html

Thank you!manubhai,

The DOS Demand Data Report only shows "documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants".

For AOS, that would be pre-adjudicated cases and for Consular Processed cases, those applicants that have returned Packet 3 to the NVC.

Arguably, there should be zero cases beyond 2007 because Chinese and Indian EB2 applicants have never had a chance to submit their application beyond July/August 2007.

Possibly NVC have processed a few CP cases to the point of being "documentarily qualified", or the numbers are just an error.

While there are 10's of thousands of EB2-IC cases beyond the current backlog, none have had the opportunity to apply for AOS and virtually no processing will have occurred on CP cases. None of those cases will be shown in the Demand Data.

In the text it says that:

Notes:
- All totals are approximate values

The imposition of cut-off dates for some categories/countries has limited the amount of applicants who have been able to file for adjustment of status with USCIS and such applicants would not be included in the above totals. In addition, new applicants are constantly becoming eligible for processing in categories for which cutoff dates do not apply or are "upgrading" their petition to a new category. Therefore, the above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand. These totals only represent the amount of demand which was taken into consideration during the determination of the monthly cut-off dates.

soggadu

09-08-2011, 02:39 PM

qesehmk

09-08-2011, 02:45 PM

Polar bhai i didnt' mean to disrespect you. Sorry if I come across rude. I understood your point about advocacy.

Soggadu, keep showing up your Avatar at least once a day. We need it :)

ssvp22

09-08-2011, 02:52 PM

Jack
Great job!! Here is my editing of the letter. Spec and others please improve it further so that Jack may incorporate some of those suggestions in his petition.

Sent this with postal mail option. Thank you for the updated text.

jackbrown_890

09-08-2011, 02:58 PM

Edited...

Thanks Q

Jack
Great job!! Here is my editing of the letter. Spec and others please improve it further so that Jack may incorporate some of those suggestions in his petition.

jackbrown_890

09-08-2011, 03:11 PM

I am glad our Chinese brothers are all over this petition for last 2 days. and the timing of signing this petition could not be better thn this since congress starts new session this week and president & congress members get these many emails/letters on this issue.
Thanks

Yes, all the Chinese news, media and social websites in North America are promoting this link. Many of my country fellows have signed this petition today.

I think more will sign in the next few days. The message takes some days to reach everyone. I expect another 5k-10k signatures soon.

All the Chinese legal immigrants are motivated now and our voice will be loud enough to get recapture of lost visas.

Thanks for editing and signing this petition.

jackbrown_890

09-08-2011, 03:22 PM

qblogfan

09-08-2011, 03:38 PM

Sure, we should work together and push for a change. We have been stuck in the same job for many years and doing something is better than nothing.

600 more signatures happened in 2 hours and now the total number is over 8000.

I am posting the link to more Chinese websites and I hope more people will come forward to sign and mail. I expect it to reach 10000 tomorrow.

I am glad our Chinese brothers are all over this petition for last 2 days. and the timing of signing this petition could not be better thn this since congress starts new session this week and president & congress members get these many emails/letters on this issue.
Thanks

cbpds1

09-08-2011, 04:26 PM

put the link back into IV again :)

imechanix

09-08-2011, 05:10 PM

Done!!
I think we should intrduce this thread to the immigrationvoice website too.

I just tried doing that but the suckers at immigrationvoice have banned the word "petition2congress" So there is no way you can post the correct link. So, I just asked users to search "Retain High-skilled Legal Immigrants in USA" in google.

I don't understand why they wanna do that.

cbpds,

Your link does not work. Just to let you know.

cbpds1

09-08-2011, 05:27 PM

but my post is just below urs and still visible though

imechanix

09-08-2011, 05:32 PM

but my post is just below urs and still visible though

But look carefully at your link. They have removed the word "petition2congress" word. So, if you click your link it does not take you anywhere.

cbpds1

09-08-2011, 05:41 PM

fixed the problem

But look carefully at your link. They have removed the word "petition2congress" word. So, if you click your link it does not take you anywhere.

skpanda

09-08-2011, 06:54 PM

Jack
Great job!! Here is my editing of the letter. Spec and others please improve it further so that Jack may incorporate some of those suggestions in his petition.

Thanks Q!

Signed up and Sent 'PRINTED LETTERS' - $12 ($3 each for President/2 senators/1 representative) is definately worth and the least one could do on this regard.

This may or may not produce any results but I would be very content that I did something towards achieving my freedom (Green Card).

For some reason, your version has supressed lot of spaces between words. I have updated your version for that and made cosmetic changes.

********************

Dear Mr.President and Members of Congress,

We are legal immigrants living in U. S. A for many years, we are paying taxes and helping the economy grow. We would like to be part of the future growth of this country. But today we are held back because of unnatural and unreasonable processing delays in the legal immigration system. We feel we have been ignored for years by the congress and a president along with the general public and media. This country has its foundation based on the immigrants from all around the world, and the immigrants have helped keep foundation strong for decades. Unfortunately,this legal immigrant community is struggling to stay in this country. We suggest following steps to ease their pain as well as help the US economy by infusion of this skilled workforce that is ready to buy new houses and other capital assets which they defer to buy because of lack of certainty.

1) Remove the artificial cap on EB visas.
An artificial cap of 140,000 EB visas exists today. If an employer proves it that a certain skill is lacking in US economy and accordingly hires foreign person then it doesn’t make sense to subject that skill to an artificial quota.This skill hurts the employers ability to leverage the employee in a better way as the employee gains even more expertise, AND it hurts the employee by having them wait for upto 10-15 years and thus subjecting them to possible abuse bythe employer. We demand that this limit itself be removed in the interest of the employers and immigrants which will certainly provide a boost to theeconomy.

2) Remove the per country limits
Per country quotas of 7% exists today. It exacerbates the situation to applicantsfrom high-demand countries like India, China, Mexico and Philippines. Approximately just 10,000 visa numbers are available to India whereas it'sestimated that at least 44% of the applicants may be from India (based on USCIS statistics of around 44% of H1bs being granted to India every year). As spouse and children are counted, considering 4 members per family, on an average only2500 Indian applicants get Green cards in a year. As you can see the numbers are dismal. Meaning, if you are from India, China, Mexico or Philippines, you may have to wait 10 to 12 years or more to get your Green Card.

3) Remove Counting of Family Members towards EB visa Cap.
Today Family members (i.e. dependents of the primary EB applicant) are counted towards the EB cap. It makes the already paltry and artificial EB cap even smaller allowing approximately only 60K true skilled workers to enter the workforce every year.

4) Capture Wasted Visas from Prior Years
In the last 17 years 218.000 visas have been wasted because of processing delays between USCIS and DOS. If those visas were captured and used, the entireEB backlog today can be removed thus reducing a significant pain for employers and immigrants.

We acknowledge that you are aware of the problems but there has not been any action taken from the congress or President to help us. Above are few suggestions from us, and we request you consider directing congress to act on them as soon as possible so that we can contribute even better to the growth and prosperity of this country.

Thank you

*******************

qesehmk

09-08-2011, 07:27 PM

Thanks SK. I did a sloppy job to be honest! Thanks for fixing it. Jack ... if you can still update ... take SK's version.
Thanks Q!

Signed up and Sent 'PRINTED LETTERS' - $12 ($3 each for President/2 senators/1 representative) is definately worth and the least one could do on this regard.

This may or may not produce any results but I would be very content that I did something towards achieving my freedom (Green Card).

For some reason, your version has supressed lot of spaces between words. I have updated your version for that and made cosmetic changes.

********************

Dear Mr.President and Members of Congress,

We are legal immigrants living in U. S. A for many years, we are paying taxes and helping the economy grow. We would like to be part of the future growth of this country. But today we are held back because of unnatural and unreasonable processing delays in the legal immigration system. We feel we have been ignored for years by the congress and a president along with the general public and media. This country has its foundation based on the immigrants from all around the world, and the immigrants have helped keep foundation strong for decades. Unfortunately,this legal immigrant community is struggling to stay in this country. We suggest following steps to ease their pain as well as help the US economy by infusion of this skilled workforce that is ready to buy new houses and other capital assets which they defer to buy because of lack of certainty.

1) Remove the artificial cap on EB visas.
An artificial cap of 140,000 EB visas exists today. If an employer proves it that a certain skill is lacking in US economy and accordingly hires foreign person then it doesn’t make sense to subject that skill to an artificial quota.This skill hurts the employers ability to leverage the employee in a better way as the employee gains even more expertise, AND it hurts the employee by having them wait for upto 10-15 years and thus subjecting them to possible abuse bythe employer. We demand that this limit itself be removed in the interest of the employers and immigrants which will certainly provide a boost to theeconomy.

2) Remove the per country limits
Per country quotas of 7% exists today. It exacerbates the situation to applicantsfrom high-demand countries like India, China, Mexico and Philippines. Approximately just 10,000 visa numbers are available to India whereas it'sestimated that at least 44% of the applicants may be from India (based on USCIS statistics of around 44% of H1bs being granted to India every year). As spouse and children are counted, considering 4 members per family, on an average only2500 Indian applicants get Green cards in a year. As you can see the numbers are dismal. Meaning, if you are from India, China, Mexico or Philippines, you may have to wait 10 to 12 years or more to get your Green Card.

3) Remove Counting of Family Members towards EB visa Cap.
Today Family members (i.e. dependents of the primary EB applicant) are counted towards the EB cap. It makes the already paltry and artificial EB cap even smaller allowing approximately only 60K true skilled workers to enter the workforce every year.

4) Capture Wasted Visas from Prior Years
In the last 17 years 218.000 visas have been wasted because of processing delays between USCIS and DOS. If those visas were captured and used, the entireEB backlog today can be removed thus reducing a significant pain for employers and immigrants.

We acknowledge that you are aware of the problems but there has not been any action taken from the congress or President to help us. Above are few suggestions from us, and we request you consider directing congress to act on them as soon as possible so that we can contribute even better to the growth and prosperity of this country.

Thank you

*******************

Jonty Rhodes

09-08-2011, 07:31 PM

Sent emails and printed 3 letters and sent to Capitol Hill

Spending $9-12 is not going to hurt anyone financially.

I believe everyone who is stuck in this GC mess should sign it and send the letters.

gcseeker

09-08-2011, 07:44 PM

Jackbrown

Nice intiative.Just finished signing the petition.I also forwaded an message copy to Rep (R) Darryl Issa of the 49th district in CA. Darryl Issa was the republican senator who tried to introduce an bill in the house to abolish the diversity lottery and allot those 50K visas to high tech workers. He might be sympathetic to the cause.Practically speaking things will only start moving if somebody sponsors an bill ,might help to get some sympathetic ears on our side.

If anybody else is interested this is his contact information.

http://issa.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=597&Itemid=73

Also it would be good if this study link can be included in the text which shows 5 American jobs are created for every H1-B hired in this country.This was stated by the NASDAQ chief(Robert Griefield) in a senate hearing couple of months ago. This might provide some motivation for the politicians to spin this as good for the economy if more high tech guys are allowed to get green cards.

This is the actual text of the testimony from the senate.gov site.

http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7-26%20Greifeld%20Testimony.pdf

Page 2 of the text
"For example, the National Federation for American Policy says that for every H-1B worker requested, U.S. technology companies increase their employment by five
workers."

Page 3

"I hear from CEOs that the H-1B visa system is inadequate for today’s human capital marketplace and that the back log for green cards is a legitimate threat to their business’s ability to get the right talent. I hear that many great thinkers are not staying here or can’t stay here to pursue their life’s work. I hear that we have these wonderful factories - our colleges and universities - that produce brilliance, and we are depriving our own nation the fruits of this production"

gchopeful123

09-08-2011, 08:48 PM

qblogfan,

Thanks for raising us from our slumber. It's time to stand up and be counted (pun intended). I now agree that it's better to do something about this mess than keep waiting for things to happen.

I work in NYC, so sometimes i spend almost 9 dollars for lunch. I figured that if I cannot go on hunger strike like Anna Hazare, I can atleast give up my lunch money to sign this petition and send signed letters to the representatives.

I humbly request everyone on this board (EB2, EB3 et all) to sign this petition and make sure that you send physical letters using this site. In my opinion, a large volume of physical letters will have more impact than us just selecting the "Send email" option which may just end up in the spam folder.

We are signing a petition to the congress. I don't know whether you are aware of it.

http://www.petition2congress.com/4771/retain-high-skilled-legal-

Let's push the visa recapture! All of us will get freedom soon if they can capture lost visas.

ssvp22

09-08-2011, 09:37 PM

I humbly request everyone on this board (EB2, EB3 et all) to sign this petition and make sure that you send physical letters using this site. In my opinion, a large volume of physical letters will have more impact than us just selecting the "Send email" option which may just end up in the spam folder.
Totally agree. $9 is nothing as compared to the upside in case something changes 'cause of this. Getting GC earlier by 1 year can result in $50-60k gain in income. Not to forget the stress free life. Besides that, I am startup guy, so, used to investing all that i earn in hope of a future jackpot.

jackbrown_890

09-08-2011, 10:29 PM

for the people who don't want to spend $9, Please send an email and if you still want to send letters, just copy petition text print and sign and mail the letter thru USPS. it will cost you only 42 cents.

jackbrown_890

09-08-2011, 10:35 PM

Updated...........
Thanks SKPANDA & Q

Thanks Q!

Signed up and Sent 'PRINTED LETTERS' - $12 ($3 each for President/2 senators/1 representative) is definately worth and the least one could do on this regard.

This may or may not produce any results but I would be very content that I did something towards achieving my freedom (Green Card).

For some reason, your version has supressed lot of spaces between words. I have updated your version for that and made cosmetic changes.

********************

Dear Mr.President and Members of Congress,

We are legal immigrants living in U. S. A for many years, we are paying taxes and helping the economy grow. We would like to be part of the future growth of this country. But today we are held back because of unnatural and unreasonable processing delays in the legal immigration system. We feel we have been ignored for years by the congress and a president along with the general public and media. This country has its foundation based on the immigrants from all around the world, and the immigrants have helped keep foundation strong for decades. Unfortunately,this legal immigrant community is struggling to stay in this country. We suggest following steps to ease their pain as well as help the US economy by infusion of this skilled workforce that is ready to buy new houses and other capital assets which they defer to buy because of lack of certainty.

1) Remove the artificial cap on EB visas.
An artificial cap of 140,000 EB visas exists today. If an employer proves it that a certain skill is lacking in US economy and accordingly hires foreign person then it doesn’t make sense to subject that skill to an artificial quota.This skill hurts the employers ability to leverage the employee in a better way as the employee gains even more expertise, AND it hurts the employee by having them wait for upto 10-15 years and thus subjecting them to possible abuse bythe employer. We demand that this limit itself be removed in the interest of the employers and immigrants which will certainly provide a boost to theeconomy.

2) Remove the per country limits
Per country quotas of 7% exists today. It exacerbates the situation to applicantsfrom high-demand countries like India, China, Mexico and Philippines. Approximately just 10,000 visa numbers are available to India whereas it'sestimated that at least 44% of the applicants may be from India (based on USCIS statistics of around 44% of H1bs being granted to India every year). As spouse and children are counted, considering 4 members per family, on an average only2500 Indian applicants get Green cards in a year. As you can see the numbers are dismal. Meaning, if you are from India, China, Mexico or Philippines, you may have to wait 10 to 12 years or more to get your Green Card.

3) Remove Counting of Family Members towards EB visa Cap.
Today Family members (i.e. dependents of the primary EB applicant) are counted towards the EB cap. It makes the already paltry and artificial EB cap even smaller allowing approximately only 60K true skilled workers to enter the workforce every year.

4) Capture Wasted Visas from Prior Years
In the last 17 years 218.000 visas have been wasted because of processing delays between USCIS and DOS. If those visas were captured and used, the entireEB backlog today can be removed thus reducing a significant pain for employers and immigrants.

We acknowledge that you are aware of the problems but there has not been any action taken from the congress or President to help us. Above are few suggestions from us, and we request you consider directing congress to act on them as soon as possible so that we can contribute even better to the growth and prosperity of this country.

Thank you

*******************

qblogfan

09-08-2011, 10:35 PM

gchopeful, thanks for your support!

Just now the total number pumped to 9200! Just today alone more than 3000 people signed this! It shows that many hard working EB immigrants are not happy about the long wait of GC. The number alone shows the real condition of our EB community. I checked some words left on that website and I found many people are unhappy about the inhumane treatment to the EB immigrants. Although we are not citizens of this country, we have to tell them we are not happy about this long wait!

Tomorrow morning it will reach 10000. I am confident our voice will be heard this time! At the same time, we are contacting different officials in DOS visa office and local congress people. We will make sure every politician hear our voice!

We are hard working tax payers and we deserve a visa recapture bill to solve this endless long wait of GC. We are people, let's stand up!

qblogfan,

Thanks for raising us from our slumber. It's time to stand up and be counted (pun intended). I now agree that it's better to do something about this mess than keep waiting for things to happen.

I work in NYC, so sometimes i spend almost 9 dollars for lunch. I figured that if I cannot go on hunger strike like Anna Hazare, I can atleast give up my lunch money to sign this petition and send signed letters to the representatives.

I humbly request everyone on this board (EB2, EB3 et all) to sign this petition and make sure that you send physical letters using this site. In my opinion, a large volume of physical letters will have more impact than us just selecting the "Send email" option which may just end up in the spam folder.

makmohan

09-08-2011, 11:28 PM

Signed for emails as well signed to send physical letters..

- M

We are signing a petition to the congress. I don't know whether you are aware of it.

http://www.petition2congress.com/4771/retain-high-skilled-legal-

Let's push the visa recapture! All of us will get freedom soon if they can capture lost visas.

visagcinfo

09-09-2011, 02:11 AM

There is a typo in the letter - "In the last 17 years 218.000 visas have been......"
The number should read 218,000 (comma vs period), isn't it?

There is a never a dull moment in this forum, ha?

honesdirec

09-09-2011, 07:49 AM

Signed for emails and physical letters

jackbrown_890

09-09-2011, 08:45 AM

I just saw online that. H.R. 2161 bill has been moved to another subcommittee (education & workforce).
This bill is not perfect but it addresses lot of issues mentioned in the petition including visa recapture. It is not the perfect bill because last I heard it may reduce H1 to 3 years if it is passed. But expedite GC process. So h1 may not matter for most of us as long as we have GC.
everyone - Please keep an eye on that bill. I am hoping that it will make to House for votes soon and pass there even though its introduced by a democrat.

gchopeful123

09-09-2011, 08:53 AM

I hope this movement picks up, we need a lot more than 10,000 entries (so far ~9500).

qblogfan,
Is there a way to get this on the media using your Chinese contacts? I dont think immigration voice guys are going to help on this.

gchopeful, thanks for your support!

Just now the total number pumped to 9200! Just today alone more than 3000 people signed this! It shows that many hard working EB immigrants are not happy about the long wait of GC. The number alone shows the real condition of our EB community. I checked some words left on that website and I found many people are unhappy about the inhumane treatment to the EB immigrants. Although we are not citizens of this country, we have to tell them we are not happy about this long wait!

Tomorrow morning it will reach 10000. I am confident our voice will be heard this time! At the same time, we are contacting different officials in DOS visa office and local congress people. We will make sure every politician hear our voice!

We are hard working tax payers and we deserve a visa recapture bill to solve this endless long wait of GC. We are people, let's stand up!

qblogfan,

Thanks for raising us from our slumber. It's time to stand up and be counted (pun intended). I now agree that it's better to do something about this mess than keep waiting for things to happen.

I work in NYC, so sometimes i spend almost 9 dollars for lunch. I figured that if I cannot go on hunger strike like Anna Hazare, I can atleast give up my lunch money to sign this petition and send signed letters to the representatives.

I humbly request everyone on this board (EB2, EB3 et all) to sign this petition and make sure that you send physical letters using this site. In my opinion, a large volume of physical letters will have more impact than us just selecting the "Send email" option which may just end up in the spam folder.

indiasunil

09-09-2011, 08:54 AM

Received REPLY from SENATOR

Thank you for contacting me to express your support for changes in the immigration system. Your opinion is very important to me, and I appreciate the opportunity to respond to you about this critical issue.

You will be pleased to know that I recently introduced a comprehensive immigration reform bill, which specifically addresses a number of your proposed changes. Among other proposals, this legislation includes the recapture provision which provides that unused visa numbers in a given year will "roll over" to the next fiscal year, and it exempts immediate relatives from the cap on the number of immigrant visas. It also reclassifies the spouse and dependent children of legal permanent residents to the "immediate relative" category. Furthermore, it increases the immigration limits per country for family-based immigration from 7 to 15 percent of total admissions and eliminates the employment-based caps.

I believe we can create reform in a safe, orderly, and legal process that preserves the promise of America for all. It can create a pathway towards citizenship, make the process for receiving green cards more efficient, and create employment systems that are both business and family friendly.

I have continuously worked with my colleagues to create and pass legislation that would enhance border security, while also providing a legitimate way for the estimated 12 million undocumented workers to come out of the shadows and earn United States citizenship. These undocumented workers should pass a series of strict and critical benchmarks, such as paying fines, learning English, and waiting at the back of the citizenship line behind those who have pursued legal means of attaining citizenship.

I believe this legislation provides concrete proposals which we can build upon. We must persistently advocate for the enactment of comprehensive immigration reform since it is the ultimate solution to our nation's broken immigration system. In addition to working for comprehensive immigration reform, I will look for opportunities to pursue independent reforms that would help businesses and families during this Congress.

Again, thank you for sharing your thoughts with me. Please do not hesitate to contact me if I can be of further assistance. I invite you to visit my website (http://menendez.senate.gov) to learn more about how I am standing up for New Jersey families in the United States Senate.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 09:01 AM

Great Sunil. Good to see a positive impact of our actions - howsoever small.

Received REPLY from SENATOR

Thank you for contacting me to express your support for changes in the immigration system. Your opinion is very important to me, and I appreciate the opportunity to respond to you about this critical issue.
.....
Again, thank you for sharing your thoughts with me. Please do not hesitate to contact me if I can be of further assistance. I invite you to visit my website (http://menendez.senate.gov) to learn more about how I am standing up for New Jersey families in the United States Senate.

indiasunil

09-09-2011, 09:07 AM

Push it hard for more emails to senators & president. Use all the best ways & try to post this in all other forums also.. I am doing my best to move this friends & colleagues.

Thanks.

Great Sunil. Good to see a positive impact of our actions - howsoever small.

kd2008

09-09-2011, 09:17 AM

From immigration-law.com

"9/09/2011: Rep. Zoe Lofgren's Bill H.R. 2161 'IDEA ACT of 2011' Moving Aheard in the House 09/08/2011

IDEA stands for 'Immigration Driving Entrepreneurship in America.' This bill literally represents "comprehensive" employment-based immigration system reform legislation to attract and retain foreign brains and to attract small foreign enterpreneurs to boost creation of employment by removing hurdles to application for permanent residence as seen in the following titles and sections of the bill:
TITLE I--ATTRACTING AND RETAINING INNOVATORS AND JOB CREATORS
SEC. 101. U.S. GRADUATES IN SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, ENGINEERING, AND MATHEMATICS.
SEC. 102. ENTREPRENEURS WHO ESTABLISH BUSINESSES AND CREATE JOBS IN THE UNITED STATES.
SEC. 103. ELIMINATING GREEN CARD BACKLOGS.
SEC. 104. IMMIGRANT ENTREPRENEURS AND INNOVATORS PRESENT IN THE UNITED STATES.
TITLE II--INVESTING IN THE NEXT GENERATION OF INNOVATORS AND JOB CREATORS
SEC. 201. INVESTING IN STEM EDUCATION FOR U.S. STUDENTS.
SEC. 202. U.S. STEM EDUCATION AND TRAINING ACCOUNT.
SEC. 203. ACCESS TO STUDENT VISAS FOR IMMIGRANT STUDENTS PRESENT IN THE UNITED STATES.
TITLE III--REDUCING ADMINISTRATIVE HURDLES TO FOSTER INNOVATION AND JOB CREATION
SEC. 301. STREAMLINING LABOR CERTIFICATIONS.
SEC. 302. STREAMLINING PETITIONS FOR ESTABLISHED EMPLOYERS.
SEC. 303. PREMIUM PROCESSING.
TITLE IV--PROTECTING AMERICAN WORKERS
SEC. 401. STRENGTHENING THE PREVAILING WAGE SYSTEM TO PROTECT AMERICAN WORKERS.
SEC. 402. REFORMING THE H-1B VISA PROGRAM TO PROTECT AMERICAN WORKERS.
SEC. 403. REFORMING THE L VISA PROGRAM TO PROTECT AMERICAN WORKERS.
TITLE V--PROMOTING INVESTMENT IN THE AMERICAN ECONOMY
SEC. 501. EB-5 EMPLOYMENT CREATION INVESTOR PROGRAM.
SEC. 502. CONCURRENT FILING; ADJUSTMENT OF STATUS.
SEC. 503. FEES; PREMIUM PROCESSING.
This bill was initially introduced in the House on June 14, 2011, nd referred to the Committee on the Judiciary, and in addition to the Committee on Education and the Workforce. Yesterday, the bill was further referred to the Subcommittee on Early Childhood, Elementary, and Secondary Education and the Subcommittee on Workforce Protections. This bill contains all juicy provisions for the employment-based immigration reform. "

I appreciate the enthusiasm for petition-to-congress and I hope people will carry it over to support the above bill, but most people are not aware of the legislative process and can't understand that we need to get behind a bill. Petitions will not result in a bill. Please support the above bill. Contact your local congressperson and demand that they support this bill. This is our best chance and probably the only one!

BTW, I am back in the US without any probs whatsoever at POE. Very smooth!

tometukuri

09-09-2011, 09:24 AM

I have been following the Blog for the last couple of months...terrific, surprises me as to how folks with full time jobs are able to dedicate so much time...Great work though! esp. the Fab 4...Q, Veni, Spec and Teddy...

I did sign this petition couple of weeks back and recieved responses from 2 senators: Frank Lautenberg and Robert Menendez.

This is part of Senator Robert's response "You will be pleased to know that I recently introduce d a comprehensive immigration reform bill, which specifically addresses a number of your proposed changes . Among other proposals , this legislation includes the recapture provision which provides that unused visa numbers in a given year will "roll over" to the next fiscal year , and it exempts immediate relatives from the cap on the number of immigrant visas. It also reclassifies the spouse and dependent children of legal permanent residents to the "immediate relative" category. Furthermore, it increases the immigration limits per country for family-based immigration from 7 to 15 percent of total admissions and eliminates the employment-based caps."

There have been many proposals on the table but without enough steam....Hopefully, this forum will help build that momentum in terms of numbers, so that the Government atleast takes a note of the issue...

Thanks
Tom Etukuri

imechanix

09-09-2011, 09:57 AM

vizcard

09-09-2011, 09:59 AM

Is there going to be a EB2 Predictions.... - 2012 thread separate from this one? I'll need to change my bookmarks :)

soggadufan

09-09-2011, 09:59 AM

Signed afor emails and physical letters

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 10:06 AM

Yes. We will switch to 2012 thread pretty soon.

Is there going to be a EB2 Predictions.... - 2012 thread separate from this one? I'll need to change my bookmarks :)

imdeng

09-09-2011, 10:58 AM

Just sent the emails as well as printed letters. I request other readers to also spend the $9-$12 and send a printed letter - thousands of letters have a lot more impact than easily ignorable emails. I edited the letter a bit - my version is below:

Dear Mr. President and Members of Congress,

We are legal immigrants living in USA for many years, we are paying taxes and helping the economy grow. We would like to be part of the future growth of this country. But today we are held back because of unnatural and unreasonable processing delays in the legal immigration system. We feel we have been ignored for years by the congress and the president along with the general public and media. This country has its foundation based on the immigrants from all around the world, and the immigrants have helped keep the foundation strong for decades. Unfortunately, this legal immigrant community is struggling to stay in this country. We suggest following steps to ease their pain as well as help the US economy by infusion of this skilled workforce that is ready to buy new houses, start businesses and contribute to the economy.

1) Remove the artificial cap on Employment Based (EB) Green Cards.
An artificial cap of 140,000 EB visas exists today. If an employer proves that a certain skill is lacking in US economy and accordingly hires a suitable foreign person then it doesn’t make sense to subject that skill to an artificial quota. This constraint is hurting the employers who wish to get the best science and technology talent from around the world to support innovation within the US. Our legal immigration policy should be oriented towards getting the best human capital to help our economy, but because of this artificial cap, much of the legal immigration is wasted on family based green cards and diversity lottery visas that add little to the economy.

2) Remove the per country limits
Per country quotas of 7% exists today. It is ridiculous to think that we are willing to accept only as many legal immigrants from India and China as from say Fiji and Panama. Because of this artificial limit, many legal immigrants from India, China, Mexico and Philippines are subjected to inhumane wait of more than 10-12 years for a visa. More than 100,000 students from India and China graduate from US universities every year with advanced degrees - and there are only about 20,000 visas available to absorb them in the US economy. We are effectively forcing this well educated workforce to go back to India and China and use their excellent US based education to compete against the US. In fact, as spouse and children are also counted in the visa limit, considering 4 members per family, on an average only 2500 Indian applicants get Green cards in a year.

3) Remove Counting of Family Members towards EB visa Cap.
Today Family members (i.e. dependents of the primary EB applicant) are counted towards the EB cap. It makes the already paltry and artificial EB cap even smaller allowing approximately only 60,000 true skilled workers to enter the workforce every year.

4) Capture Wasted Visas from Prior Years
In the last 17 years 218,000 EB visas have been wasted because of processing delays between USCIS and DOS. If those visas were re-captured and used, the decades of waiting that legal immigrants are forced to endure can be removed thus reducing a significant pain for employers and immigrants.

We acknowledge that you are aware of the problems but there has not been any action taken from the congress or the President to help the productive, tax paying and patriotic legal immigrants community. We are here because we believe in America and the American Dream. We are being held back by the archaic and counter-productive legal immigration regulations. Above are few suggestions from us, and we request you consider legislation action on the above so that we can contribute even better to the growth and prosperity of this country.

Thank you

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 11:25 AM

Excellent edits imdeng! I would only advise to change the word ridiculous to "unjust and unwise".

Just sent the emails as well as printed letters. I request other readers to also spend the $9-$12 and send a printed letter - thousands of letters have a lot more impact than easily ignorable emails. I edited the letter a bit - my version is below:

Dear Mr. President and Members of Congress,

We are legal immigrants living in USA for many years, we are paying taxes and helping the economy grow. We would like to be part of the future growth of this country. But today we are held back because of unnatural and unreasonable processing delays in the legal immigration system. We feel we have been ignored for years by the congress and the president along with the general public and media. This country has its foundation based on the immigrants from all around the world, and the immigrants have helped keep the foundation strong for decades. Unfortunately, this legal immigrant community is struggling to stay in this country. We suggest following steps to ease their pain as well as help the US economy by infusion of this skilled workforce that is ready to buy new houses, start businesses and contribute to the economy.

1) Remove the artificial cap on Employment Based (EB) Green Cards.
An artificial cap of 140,000 EB visas exists today. If an employer proves that a certain skill is lacking in US economy and accordingly hires a suitable foreign person then it doesn’t make sense to subject that skill to an artificial quota. This constraint is hurting the employers who wish to get the best science and technology talent from around the world to support innovation within the US. Our legal immigration policy should be oriented towards getting the best human capital to help our economy, but because of this artificial cap, much of the legal immigration is wasted on family based green cards and diversity lottery visas that add little to the economy.

2) Remove the per country limits
Per country quotas of 7% exists today. It is ridiculous to think that we are willing to accept only as many legal immigrants from India and China as from say Fiji and Panama. Because of this artificial limit, many legal immigrants from India, China, Mexico and Philippines are subjected to inhumane wait of more than 10-12 years for a visa. More than 100,000 students from India and China graduate from US universities every year with advanced degrees - and there are only about 20,000 visas available to absorb them in the US economy. We are effectively forcing this well educated workforce to go back to India and China and use their excellent US based education to compete against the US. In fact, as spouse and children are also counted in the visa limit, considering 4 members per family, on an average only 2500 Indian applicants get Green cards in a year.

3) Remove Counting of Family Members towards EB visa Cap.
Today Family members (i.e. dependents of the primary EB applicant) are counted towards the EB cap. It makes the already paltry and artificial EB cap even smaller allowing approximately only 60,000 true skilled workers to enter the workforce every year.

4) Capture Wasted Visas from Prior Years
In the last 17 years 218,000 EB visas have been wasted because of processing delays between USCIS and DOS. If those visas were re-captured and used, the decades of waiting that legal immigrants are forced to endure can be removed thus reducing a significant pain for employers and immigrants.

We acknowledge that you are aware of the problems but there has not been any action taken from the congress or the President to help the productive, tax paying and patriotic legal immigrants community. We are here because we believe in America and the American Dream. We are being held back by the archaic and counter-productive legal immigration regulations. Above are few suggestions from us, and we request you consider legislation action on the above so that we can contribute even better to the growth and prosperity of this country.

Thank you

rdsingh79

09-09-2011, 11:59 AM

Justed signed the petition and sent letters too.

ssvp22

09-09-2011, 12:43 PM

It seems VB will not be out today.

casantino

09-09-2011, 12:46 PM

Ok ... the letter is good but we are distracting the reader by adding stuff that doesnt help us.

For example:

Increase 7% quota limit for India & China - This fight is for GC and not H-1B. It doesn't matter what the quota is of the total number of visas per year remains the same. In any case the extra unused visas will be 'spilled over' sooner or later. So i think equal quotas by country is fair. If we want to increase something, it is the total visa number.

Secondly, removing family/dependents from visa allocation will never happen, because for US, it doesn't matter if they are working or not, it matters that they are immigrating. Be careful what you wish for. If we take our family from visa quotas, USCIS/DOS might put family in family visa quota which is an extremely long line. So you will have you green card quick, but your wife and kids will have theirs after 2-3- years and wont be able to join you.

Finally, our focus should only be on visa recapture cause that is right and fair and solves all our problems.

Thanks,

Please feel free to comment

srimurthy

09-09-2011, 12:59 PM

Just signed and sent letters too. Nothing wrong in trying.

imdeng

09-09-2011, 01:02 PM

Idea is not to increase per country quota - but remove it altogether. EB immigration is about economic need - country of origin should not play a part in it. As far as ensuring diversity is concerned - there already is a diversity lottery.

Ok ... the letter is good but we are distracting the reader by adding stuff that doesnt help us.

For example:

Increase 7% quota limit for India & China - This fight is for GC and not H-1B. It doesn't matter what the quota is of the total number of visas per year remains the same. In any case the extra unused visas will be 'spilled over' sooner or later. So i think equal quotas by country is fair. If we want to increase something, it is the total visa number.

Secondly, removing family/dependents from visa allocation will never happen, because for US, it doesn't matter if they are working or not, it matters that they are immigrating. Be careful what you wish for. If we take our family from visa quotas, USCIS/DOS might put family in family visa quota which is an extremely long line. So you will have you green card quick, but your wife and kids will have theirs after 2-3- years and wont be able to join you.

Finally, our focus should only be on visa recapture cause that is right and fair and solves all our problems.

Thanks,

Please feel free to comment

casantino

09-09-2011, 01:10 PM

I understand. However, we dont want to get into the politics of this. It is their country, their ideals and their economic needs. They want to show the world that they give equal weight to all countries. It is more politics than fairness. They will only learn when people start leaving or companies start moving out. It is easy to challenge and change an error/mistake (visa recapture) than challenge and change their ideals and needs (portraying diversity). We will never get them to remove the quota limits and they will reject the letter just by reading the first part.

Idea is not to increase per country quota - but remove it altogether. EB immigration is about economic need - country of origin should not play a part in it. As far as ensuring diversity is concerned - there already is a diversity lottery.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 01:22 PM

Sure it is their country. But it is fair for us to try to influence and change their thinking based on rational arguments that benefit both sides. e.g. a simple thought here - if there is an employer here who wants to hire a foreign person where the skill is not locally available;what sense it makes to subject that to any quota whatsoever? It's stupid to say the least. Honestly if you think about it that would be one way to make education less expensive in US and have the population value education more.

I understand. However, we dont want to get into the politics of this. It is their country, their ideals and their economic needs. They want to show the world that they give equal weight to all countries. It is more politics than fairness. They will only learn when people start leaving or companies start moving out. It is easy to challenge and change an error/mistake (visa recapture) than challenge and change their ideals and needs (portraying diversity). We will never get them to remove the quota limits and they will reject the letter just by reading the first part.

stillanoptimist

09-09-2011, 01:22 PM

really? yeah probably not because of this silly petition thingy..but otherwise we will see :)

I understand. However, we dont want to get into the politics of this. It is their country, their ideals and their economic needs. They want to show the world that they give equal weight to all countries. It is more politics than fairness. They will only learn when people start leaving or companies start moving out. It is easy to challenge and change an error/mistake (visa recapture) than challenge and change their ideals and needs (portraying diversity). We will never get them to remove the quota limits and they will reject the letter just by reading the first part.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 01:23 PM

Thank you for your support! I will ask NIU folks to get some media exposure. I am sure they are working on this. I heard they were trying to put an ad on Washington Post and NY Times. I will ask them.

I hope this movement picks up, we need a lot more than 10,000 entries (so far ~9500).

qblogfan,
Is there a way to get this on the media using your Chinese contacts? I dont think immigration voice guys are going to help on this.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 01:41 PM

Yes, I agree. Although we are not citizens of this country, we have the right to speak out. We are not happy about this long waiting and we need to let them know. That's the whole purpose of doing petition. Otherwise they will never know we are unhappy. It's similar with working in a company. If you are unhappy about your salary, you need to let the boss know, otherwise they think you are happy about the low salary.

They set the 7% limit to prevent a dorminant group of immigrants. It's not for fairness to every country. They don't want to have a group of immigrants with the same ethnic background and it may endanger the power of the white people. Apparently it is a ridiculous rule because the mexicans are the real threat to their power. Indian and Chinese immigrants are not the real threat to their power and our number is less than 10% of mexican population in the US.

In this country it takes years to pass a bill. When they pass the bill, it might be too late already. The endless waiting of GC has killed all the creation and motivation of all these immigrants. Also many talented people have returned to their home countries. If you cheat people and seek a refugee GC, it only takes several months. If you work hard and stay honest and seek for an EB GC, it takes years. Isn't it ridiculous?

The reason for the delay of passing this kind of bills is that there is too much compromise and resistance. Too many different groups are fighting for their own benefits. The spanish group in the congress blocked all the EB GC bills because they want to get benefits for illegals. Although many congress people know a visa reacpture bill is good for this country, they just can't pass it. There are too much bull shit and too much fighting to pass any bill in this country.

Sure it is their country. But it is fair for us to try to influence and change their thinking based on rational arguments that benefit both sides. e.g. a simple thought here - if there is an employer here who wants to hire a foreign person where the skill is not locally available;what sense it makes to subject that to any quota whatsoever? It's stupid to say the least. Honestly if you think about it that would be one way to make education less expensive in US and have the population value education more.

nishant2200

09-09-2011, 01:46 PM

Demand data is out. C-3200, I-4875.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/ivstats/ivstats_4581.html

An increase of just 75 for India.

rdsingh79

09-09-2011, 01:46 PM

demand data for Oct VB

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 01:50 PM

The sqeuaky wheel gets the greese. (pardon any spelling mistakes!)

On another note - nobody would be threat to anybody if everybody focuses on the economic and social benefits of immigration.

Yes, I agree. Although we are not citizens of this country, we have the right to speak out. We are not happy about this long waiting and we need to let them know. That's the whole purpose of doing petition. Otherwise they will never know we are unhappy. It's similar with working in a company. If you are unhappy about your salary, you need to let the boss know, otherwise they think you are happy about the low salary.

They set the 7% limit to prevent a dorminant group of immigrants. It's not for fairness to every country. They don't want to have a group of immigrants with the same ethnic background and it may endanger the power of the white people. Apparently it is a ridiculous rule because the mexicans are the real threat to their power. Indian and Chinese immigrants are not the real threat to their power and our number is less than 10% of mexican population in the US.

In this country it takes years to pass a bill. When they pass the bill, it might be too late already. The endless waiting of GC has killed all the creation and motivation of all these immigrants. Also many talented people have returned to their home countries. If you cheat people and seek a refugee GC, it only takes several months. If you work hard and stay honest and seek for an EB GC, it takes years. Isn't it ridiculous?

The reason for the delay of passing this kind of bills is that there is too much compromise and resistance. Too many different groups are fighting for their own benefits. The spanish group in the congress blocked all the EB GC bills because they want to get benefits for illegals. Although many congress people know a visa reacpture bill is good for this country, they just can't pass it. There are too much bull shit and too much fighting to pass any bill in this country.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 02:00 PM

Alright guys .... so here are two good things coming out of VB data.

1. EB2IC there will no retrogression. Why? Because there is 8K demand prior to Jan 2008. This is pretty much same as the existing total demand post 15th Apr 2007 (current EB2IC date). So VO is indicating that he will be allocate visas to all eligible EB2IC until 15th Apr 2007 by end of September (of course except for the unfortunate cases that have problems).

2. The EB5 quota for china next year is zero. It is a sad news for Chinese EB5 guys ... but good news for EB2IC since it virtually ensures that the EB5 spillover next year could be similar to this year. However there is a caveat here - EB5C can still get the spillover May 2012 onwards. But the idosyncracy that makes EB5C quota ZERO based on some chinese students protection act (why would any chinese stundets go for EB5 directly is beyond me and hence the reduction of EB5C to ZERO doesn't make sense) tells us that VO will not necessarily honor spillover to EB5C either. Making it ZERO shows clear bias against stopping chinese EB5 immigrants. Again ... bad news for them but good news for EB2IC.

demand data for Oct VB

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

needid

09-09-2011, 02:08 PM

Demand data is out. C-3200, I-4875.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/ivstats/ivstats_4581.html

An increase of just 75 for India.

Sep EB2 total = 8,275
Oct EB2 Total = 8350

A difference of 75. If X is net approvals it X+5. Not sure what is X, as they did not move in Sept X could be zero or very less may be like 500. So PWMB+Porting is not in thousands.

nishant2200

09-09-2011, 02:10 PM

Q, point 2 is master catch, I missed it.

The recent push on EB5 might clash with policy on SO interpretation with regards to EB5C vis-a-vis the student protection act.

If it indeed true that the student act trumps SO interpret, this will be much needed help to the beleagured EB2IC community.

I think in bulletin next, EB2C will move by a week at least, and pass Teddy's litmus test.

Alright guys .... so here are two good things coming out of VB data.

1. EB2IC there will no retrogression. Why? Because there is 8K demand prior to Jan 2008. This is pretty much same as the existing total demand post 15th Apr 2007 (current EB2IC date). So VO is indicating that he will be allocate visas to all eligible EB2IC until 15th Apr 2007 by end of September (of course except for the unfortunate cases that have problems).

2. The EB5 quota for china next year is zero. It is a sad news for Chinese EB5 guys ... but good news for EB2IC since it virtually ensures that the EB5 spillover next year could be similar to this year. However there is a caveat here - EB5C can still get the spillover May 2012 onwards. But the idosyncracy that makes EB5C quota ZERO based on some chinese students protection act (why would any chinese stundets go for EB5 directly is beyond me and hence the reduction of EB5C to ZERO doesn't make sense) tells us that VO will not necessarily honor spillover to EB5C either. Making it ZERO shows clear bias against stopping chinese EB5 immigrants. Again ... bad news for them but good news for EB2IC.

ravisekhar

09-09-2011, 02:13 PM

After seeing the text below from 2nd page of demand data. For some reason i think they will move the cut off dates for china and india to capture Future Demand. May be only my heart is working instead of a brain.

The imposition of cut-off dates for some categories/countries has limited the amount of applicants who have been able to file for adjustment of status with USCIS, and such applicants would not be included in the above totals. In addition, new applicants are constantly becoming eligible for processing in categories for which cutoff dates do not apply. Therefore, the above totals should not be interpreted to reflect the total universe of applicant demand. These totals only represent the amount of demand which was taken into consideration during the determination of the monthly cut-off dates.

qriousjunta

09-09-2011, 02:15 PM

Qesehmk, firstly thanks for this forum - keep up the good work.

WRT this demand data . I have 6/2010 as my PD , i now have some decisions to make - If i calculate it correct should i interpret ~8K demand EB2 India till 1/11. With the rate of available visa's per country in the 1st table ~2.8K. I assume i cannot expect EB2 india to become current in anytime 2012, correct? And i see I should can expect my PD to become current only somewhere in 2013 and +vely in 2014 timeline? Please help me , throw your thoughts.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 02:24 PM

You are right. This shows the fallacy of portings and PWMB. If the total in one month is 75. Then the full year number comes to 1K max. That is too low to believe. So lets make it 2-3K. That is more than enough to cover both of them in this economy.

Sep EB2 total = 8,275
Oct EB2 Total = 8350

A difference of 75. If X is net approvals it X+5. Not sure what is X, as they did not move in Sept X could be zero or very less may be like 500. So PWMB+Porting is not in thousands.

After seeing the text below from 2nd page of demand data. For some reason i think they will move the cut off dates for china and india to capture Future Demand. May be only my heart is working instead of a brain.

It is wishful thinking but not impossible. I do think that possibly exists - very small though.

Qesehmk, firstly thanks for this forum - keep up the good work.

WRT this demand data . I have 6/2010 as my PD , i now have some decisions to make - If i calculate it correct should i interpret ~8K demand EB2 India till 1/11. With the rate of available visa's per country in the 1st table ~2.8K. I assume i cannot expect EB2 india to become current in anytime 2012, correct? And i see I should can expect my PD to become current only somewhere in 2013 and +vely in 2014 timeline? Please help me , throw your thoughts.
I will say 2014 is more likely.

nishant2200

09-09-2011, 03:04 PM

Ok, isn't SO from E1 -> E2 -> E3, and E2ROW -> E2IC.

Then we shudnt worry about e5C grabbing from above SO kitty neways is it.

Q, point 2 is master catch, I missed it.

The recent push on EB5 might clash with policy on SO interpretation with regards to EB5C vis-a-vis the student protection act.

If it indeed true that the student act trumps SO interpret, this will be much needed help to the beleagured EB2IC community.

I think in bulletin next, EB2C will move by a week at least, and pass Teddy's litmus test.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 03:06 PM

Its is not about EB5 grabbing from other EBs. Its about EB5C being deprived which can potentially spill over to EB1->EB2->EB2IC.

Ok, isn't SO from E1 -> E2 -> E3, and E2ROW -> E2IC.

Then we shudnt worry about e5C grabbing from above SO kitty neways is it.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 03:39 PM

There is about 2400 EB5 primary applicants in the Q right now. So if 65% are chinese, then that;s about 800 non-chinese which translates to approx 2-3K 2012 EB5 demand. So spillover may not necessarily increase. But it wont go to 2-3K as we were fearing.

Q,
Based on the above article nishant posted and FY2010 data China used about 68% of EB5 visas(issued).

If EB5C is not getting any numbers means FY2012 should expect more spillover from EB5 compared to FY2011?

GCFresher

09-09-2011, 03:48 PM

Q,

If we assume that this demad data is from Apr 15 till Aug 2007,shouldn't the EB2 I be advancing little bit in this coming visa bulletin ?
My PD is Apr 16 2007.This is the reason for my wishful thinking :p

Alright guys .... so here are two good things coming out of VB data.

1. EB2IC there will no retrogression. Why? Because there is 8K demand prior to Jan 2008. This is pretty much same as the existing total demand post 15th Apr 2007 (current EB2IC date). So VO is indicating that he will be allocate visas to all eligible EB2IC until 15th Apr 2007 by end of September (of course except for the unfortunate cases that have problems).

2. The EB5 quota for china next year is zero. It is a sad news for Chinese EB5 guys ... but good news for EB2IC since it virtually ensures that the EB5 spillover next year could be similar to this year. However there is a caveat here - EB5C can still get the spillover May 2012 onwards. But the idosyncracy that makes EB5C quota ZERO based on some chinese students protection act (why would any chinese stundets go for EB5 directly is beyond me and hence the reduction of EB5C to ZERO doesn't make sense) tells us that VO will not necessarily honor spillover to EB5C either. Making it ZERO shows clear bias against stopping chinese EB5 immigrants. Again ... bad news for them but good news for EB2IC.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 03:54 PM

The sliver of EB2I quota is so thin that its entirely possible that the portinsg could consume all that quota. However it is equally possible that the dats could move upto 1-2 months through the year and a couple of weeks per quarter.

I am sorry I can't be more precise than that. I can imagine your anguish having missed it by 1 day.

Q,

If we assume that this demad data is from Apr 15 till Aug 2007,shouldn't the EB2 I be advancing little bit in this coming visa bulletin ?
My PD is Apr 16 2007.This is the reason for my wishful thinking :p

ravisekhar

09-09-2011, 04:04 PM

Today is 2nd friday of the month and visa bulletin is due today. Since it is already 5 PM EST. So, No bulletin. can anyone guess what's causing the delay ?

soggadu

09-09-2011, 04:15 PM

hey guys... Why wouldnt/Shouldnt USCIS move the dates into 2008... Given the known demand to be at 8K ( i understand underlying PWMB is more, but it is still an unknown) and on average we have > 15K spillover from last 4 years... any comments?? why they shouldnt... also if you agree, when would be the right time for this move ? now or next quarter?

cbpds1

09-09-2011, 04:18 PM

USCIS/DOS-->FED GOV-->Obama policy

hey guys... Why wouldnt/Shouldnt USCIS move the dates into 2008... Given the known demand to be at 8K ( i understand underlying PWMB is more, but it is still an unknown) and on average we have > 15K spillover from last 4 years... any comments?? why they shouldnt... also if you agree, when would be the right time for this move ? now or next quarter?

narendarrao

09-09-2011, 04:23 PM

October visa bulletin is released.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5560.html

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 04:25 PM

VB is out and it is 7/15/2007!

It looks like Mr.Co is going to do quarter spillover this year!

It will require 4k-5k visas! It is definitely quarter spillover!

NIU wrote to the boss of Mr.CO and complained seriously. I think CO's boss told him something.

October visa bulletin is released.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5560.html

suninphx

09-09-2011, 04:27 PM

I am glad all bears are proved wrong... ok ...at least for this month :) and congrats to all who are current!!

TeddyKoochu

09-09-2011, 04:32 PM

This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days but can almost see the light now! Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current. QBF I hope they actually do quarterly spillover this time it will be a great step forward and ensure good orderly approvals.

pch053

09-09-2011, 04:33 PM

I am pleasantly surprised with the Oct bulletin and am trying to reason the 3 months forward movement. There are probably 3 - 3.5K pending EB2-I applications up to 15th July'07 (plus there will be PWMBs); so they must be thinking of quarterly spillovers or to fill up the buffer of new applications starting with PWMBs.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 04:34 PM

Alright ... now this is CRAZY!!!!! CO has moved dates for October by 3 months thus releasing exactly 6K of quota. So without any delay lets first congratulate those who are current (including GCFresher and Monica)!

First I thought of taking the credit by saying "I told you "FIRST WEEK OF JULY" for September bulletin. And yes it is very enticing to take credit except for the fact that this movement occured for next year.

I do not know whether they will use 2011 numbers for October approvals or 2012 EB2IC quota. In the past they have used PY number for CY. So its possible. But whatever it is ... guys this takes it one step closer to do a BTM. Lets hope for one ASAP!!

October visa bulletin is released.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5560.html

pch053

09-09-2011, 04:34 PM

This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days. Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current.
Teddy,
Hopefully, you will be current in the next couple of bulletins as you missed the date by just 1 week. Good luck!

doctorp

09-09-2011, 04:34 PM

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5560.html
its here, july 15
this was unexpected!!!!!!!!!!!

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 04:35 PM

definitely a great VB!

One NIU member kept writing to Mr.CO and his boss in the past several weeks to push for the quarter spillover.

I think from now on, their goal is to use 27% of annual quota in the first 3 quarters.

This NIU member said that VB may reach 2008 by December.

This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days. Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 04:36 PM

Well Teddy ... sad for you. Sucker shouldv'e moved the dates by a few more weeks and made it current but he didn't. But now I am thinking is this his BTM so that he can pull in all PWMBs and then retro in november. We will see.

This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days but can almost see the light now! Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current.

suninphx

09-09-2011, 04:37 PM

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 04:40 PM

I think it's possible VB will move again in the next VB and Dec VB.

It may retrogress in January 2012.

He did this to FB last year.

Well Teddy ... sad for you. Sucker shouldv'e moved the dates by a few more weeks and made it current but he didn't. But now I am thinking is this his BTM so that he can pull in all PWMBs and then retro in november. We will see.

pch053

09-09-2011, 04:40 PM

Well Teddy ... sad for you. Sucker shouldv'e moved the dates by a few more weeks and made it current but he didn't. But now I am thinking is this his BTM so that he can pull in all PWMBs and then retro in november. We will see.
That's what I am trying to reason out; is the movement up to 15th July, BTM itself? Because, I don't see enough visas and even with quarterly spillovers, it will be a tough call. We probably need to wait until Nov to see in which direction the visa dates are headed but, I assume almost all PWMBs will go into the pending pool in the next couple of months and PWMB will then probably be a thing of the past!

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 04:41 PM

They may get 5-6k PWMB demand by moving PD to 7/15. Please correct me because I can't remember the data.

Well Teddy ... sad for you. Sucker shouldv'e moved the dates by a few more weeks and made it current but he didn't. But now I am thinking is this his BTM so that he can pull in all PWMBs and then retro in november. We will see.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 04:42 PM

Alright .... so my fears are right:

This is from the bulletin

China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

So basically this is his BTM for now. So that he can general enough demand from PWMBs. It would be interesting to see what he would do if the PWMBs are in a couple of thousands. I wish the BTM was at least till Dec 2007.

shaumack

09-09-2011, 04:42 PM

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5560.html
its here, july 15
this was unexpected!!!!!!!!!!!

I am pretty sure this is not end of it. They will try to get demand as much as possible for this quarter. Congrats to all those who became current.

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current

China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

Mexico: Current
Philippines: Current

doctorp

09-09-2011, 04:43 PM

Well Teddy ... sad for you. Sucker shouldv'e moved the dates by a few more weeks and made it current but he didn't. But now I am thinking is this his BTM so that he can pull in all PWMBs and then retro in november. We will see.

hey Q,
what do you think about i/c having same cut off dates, also it is unprecedented to release this many visas in the 1st month itself. the PWMBS are going to take 4-6 months to become demand, so is he going to go by the number of 485 intakes?
this is crazy
also he has used up india + china annual supply in 1 month, + pwmb...

kd2008

09-09-2011, 04:44 PM

I like the following statement in the bulletin. Clearest sign of BTM:

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current

China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 04:45 PM

It's very likely they will get PWMB into the pool in Q1.

However, I believe they will start approving all the guys before 7/15/2007. They will approve as much as they can.

The other thing is: One NIU member heard USCIS cleared a large percentage of the EB2 ROW/EB1 in August/September. There are not many pending EB2 ROW/EB1 any more.

I think Q1 will reach 27% of annual quota and that means they will approve around 38k in Q1. EB2 ROW and EB1 demand is not high and a large percentage of these numbers have to go to EB2 C&I.

That's what I am trying to reason out; is the movement up to 15th July, BTM itself? Because, I don't see enough visas and even with quarterly spillovers, it will be a tough call. We probably need to wait until Nov to see in which direction the visa dates are headed but, I assume almost all PWMBs will go into the pending pool in the next couple of months and PWMB will then probably be a thing of the past!

dec2007

09-09-2011, 04:49 PM

Well Teddy ... sad for you. Sucker shouldv'e moved the dates by a few more weeks and made it current but he didn't. But now I am thinking is this his BTM so that he can pull in all PWMBs and then retro in november. We will see.

Bulletin also warns about retrogression for eb2ic. But the same warning was there in last recent bulletins too. Willl see if this is the same rhetoric.

Congrats all who got current.

cbpds1

09-09-2011, 04:50 PM

who and what is this NIU?

It's very likely they will get PWMB into the pool in Q1.

However, I believe they will start approving all the guys before 7/15/2007. They will approve as much as they can.

The other thing is: One NIU member heard USCIS cleared a large percentage of the EB2 ROW/EB1 in August/September. There are not many pending EB2 ROW/EB1 any more.

I think Q1 will reach 27% of annual quota and that means they will approve around 38k in Q1. EB2 ROW and EB1 demand is not high and a large percentage of these numbers have to go to EB2 C&I.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 04:53 PM

Mr.CO always put this kind of crap into VB. We saw this kind of words several times.

I suspect what happened is: Q4 of FY 2011 approved too much EB1/EB2 ROW. Now they don't have much demand from these folks. At the same time many folks sent him messages about the low consumption of visas in Q1 and Q2 of FY 2011. Now he wants to meet the 27% goal.

If we can see a large of number of approvals of EB2 C&I in next month, that means he changed his old method of visa assignment. In the past, he always assigned 2800/12 to every month. Apparently he changed his old method.

Bulletin also warns about retrogression for eb2ic. But the same warning was there in last recent bulletins too. Willl see if this is the same rhetoric.

Congrats all who got current.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 04:54 PM

NIU is a organization promoting legal immigration.

www.niunational.org

Many hard working guys are pushing CO and his boss.

who and what is this NIU?

TeddyKoochu

09-09-2011, 05:00 PM

Teddy,
Hopefully, you will be current in the next couple of bulletins as you missed the date by just 1 week. Good luck!

Well Teddy ... sad for you. Sucker shouldv'e moved the dates by a few more weeks and made it current but he didn't. But now I am thinking is this his BTM so that he can pull in all PWMBs and then retro in november. We will see.

pch053 did you also become current, I remember you are also Jul 07 but not sure about your date. Congrats Leo finally!
Friends thanks for your very kind words. Iam happy to finally come this close I need another 2 weeks of movement but Iam seriously hopeful that there will be more testing of the waters. This bulletin passed the litmus test in flying colors.
Based on the below note I believe that the fresh intake will be to atleast have the intake total to match this year’s SOFAD. So say if this year’s SOFAD was 30K then looks like CO will like to have a buffer of 30K (Allowance for porting as 5K) in terms of total 485's for EB2 I/C. The 15% CP ratio is not valid for EB2 India. I believe that another fresh intake of 10K (Max 15K) is very likely but when it will happen is going to be entirely CO's discretion.
China and India: The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India. The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use. Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility.

Kanmani

09-09-2011, 05:03 PM

Something tells me that they have leftover visas from FY2011 which they will tag to PDs apr to july already from inventory .

So PWMBs will be the demand for the next FY 2012

This is just a guess . but who knows.........

Congratulations to everyone PD apr to jul

gchopeful123

09-09-2011, 05:06 PM

This is exciting stuff....yum yum!!! My PD of 24Sep2007...getting closer...aur pass aur pass :)

VB is out and it is 7/15/2007!

It looks like Mr.Co is going to do quarter spillover this year!

It will require 4k-5k visas! It is definitely quarter spillover!

NIU wrote to the boss of Mr.CO and complained seriously. I think CO's boss told him something.

pch053

09-09-2011, 05:06 PM

pch053 did you also become current, I remember you are also Jul 07 but not sure about your date.

Yes, I just scraped through and became current; my PD is 11th July'07. I am sure there will be more testing waters to build the buffer of pending applications as there won't be enough enough applications to approve just by moving dates to 15th July'07. Hopefully, we will see some more movement in the next couple of bulletins.

TeddyKoochu

09-09-2011, 05:10 PM

Yes, I just scraped through and became current; my PD is 11th July'07. I am sure there will be more testing waters to build the buffer of pending applications as there won't be enough enough applications to approve just by moving dates to 15th July'07. Hopefully, we will see some more movement in the next couple of bulletins.

Great that is very good to know, congrats!, mine is 24th so off by just a few days.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 05:12 PM

It's very likely!

In fact I think EB1 and EB2 ROW demand is too low for Q1 of 2012, so he has no other choice but to approve more EB2 C&I.

I saw on mitbbs a Chinese EB1 with PD July 6th was approved this week. You can see they are approving fresh new EB1 new cases in 2 months! I seriously suspect that there are some visas left in FY 2011 because of the stop of EB2 C&I in September VB. Why they are approving fresh EB1 case in 2 months?

This VB movement is not only for BTM, but also because of the low demand of EB1 and EB2 ROW. Last year he only used 15% of annual quota of FY 2011 in Q1 and he got worried that this year the approval in Q1 can be less than 15% if he does not approve EB2 C&I.

Just my two cents.

Something tells me that they have leftover visas from FY2011 which they will tag to PDs apr to july already from inventory .

So PWMBs will be the demand for the next FY 2012

This is just a guess . but who knows.........

Congratulations to everyone PD apr to jul

mesan123

09-09-2011, 05:12 PM

bieber

09-09-2011, 05:13 PM

I believe the next stop will be at 15th Aug 2007, Teddy you will be current very soon, hang in there

TeddyKoochu

09-09-2011, 05:18 PM

first of all...congrats to Monica behen & leo....
Teddy, soggadu and Nishanth....you guys also may see light very soon :) ....happy for all the people who became current...

felt nice to see the 15th JULY 2007 date...as thatz the fiasco month...so all the people with EAD 's will be cleared now... :)

hope in next few months bulliten...we can see more movement....atleast to take extra inventory which gives EAD's for people.

I believe the next stop will be at 15th Aug 2007, Teddy you will be current very soon, hang in there

Also congrats to Veni even he is current now, Bieber & mesan123 thanks for your kind words. The EAD span extends till 15th Aug, 17th Aug was the last filing date.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 05:21 PM

congratulations to all the folks who become current.

hope T will be current next month!

good luck to all! we need to let the congress and DOS hear our voice!

continue to fight for a better treatment to EB immigrants!

Also congrats to Veni even he is current now, Bieber & mesan123 thanks for your kind words. The EAD span extends till 15th Aug, 17th Aug was the last filing date.

bieber

09-09-2011, 05:21 PM

Veni brother congratulations, also to Monica, pch, leo and if i forget any

03may2007, I remember u :)

If CO did this last month, the party would have just continued..

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 05:23 PM

I think he was over conservative on the September VB.

Now he realized that he needs to be less conservative.

Veni brother congratulations, also to Monica, pch, leo and if i forget any

03may2007, I remember u :)

If CO did this last month, the party would have just continued..

nishant2200

09-09-2011, 05:26 PM

This is great news. I am on vacation n stuck on cumbersome typing on iphone.

As I have been saying earlier, they can always move dates to whatever they want and put some disclaimer as to why and any caveats. Like this is for only capturing demand, as they said this time. I had this discussion earlier n Spec responded, as well as Q.

I think they are setting the stage for this year. This is the first BTM, next I think they will goto 15-Aug-2007 as Bieber said, and then new territory of late 2007.

nishant2200

09-09-2011, 05:28 PM

first of all...congrats to Monica behen & leo....
Teddy, soggadu and Nishanth....you guys also may see light very soon :) ....happy for all the people who became current...

felt nice to see the 15th JULY 2007 date...as thatz the fiasco month...so all the people with EAD 's will be cleared now... :)

hope in next few months bulliten...we can see more movement....atleast to take extra inventory which gives EAD's for people.

Thank you for ur wishes. My prayers for everyone. Need a drink now.

bieber

09-09-2011, 05:30 PM

If all PMWBs wait for couple of weeks to file next month and mislead that there is no new demand, CO might just push the dates in 2009 :)

nishant2200

09-09-2011, 05:43 PM

He says the dates will slow stop or retro once enough demand is made. What is enough demand? Is it 30k, 25k, 20k? I think based on that, there will be more bursts. This is not the end of it.

Alright .... so my fears are right:

This is from the bulletin

So basically this is his BTM for now. So that he can general enough demand from PWMBs. It would be interesting to see what he would do if the PWMBs are in a couple of thousands. I wish the BTM was at least till Dec 2007.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 05:49 PM

quarter one goal is 38k for the whole world.

if the whole world consumption in Q1 is much lower than 38k, he may admit more cases. if the whole world consumption exceeds 38k, then stop.

just a wild guess.

He says the dates will slow stop or retro once enough demand is made. What is enough demand? Is it 30k, 25k, 20k? I think based on that, there will be more bursts. This is not the end of it.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 05:50 PM

nobody will hold off, I think people will rush into the pipe. :(

If all PMWBs wait for couple of weeks to file next month and mislead that there is no new demand, CO might just push the dates in 2009 :)

Pedro Gonzales

09-09-2011, 05:53 PM

A) This is the BTM that we've all been waiting for, just not as B as we'd all hoped for.
B) This marks the beginning of an era of quarterly spill over.
C) They were conservative with EB2-IC movement for the Sep VB, and maybe expected EB1 & EB2ROW demand didn't pan out, leaving us with unused 2011 visa numbers; these don't expire on Sep 30, 2011 as we all thought but can be used in October 2011.
D) Between the worsening economy, the lower than expected EB1/EB2ROW runrate demand, the elimination of all EB1/EB2ROW inventory, and the elimination of EB5 C visas (for 2012), we may see a pretty good spillover next year even if not as high as this years.
E) PWMB and Porting figures are lower than the 5K to 6K figure we had calculated earlier, so we may not see a big enough inventory build up of EB2-IC applicants for a retrogression, so dates may continue to move forward in future months.

Is there a sound basis to believe anything above, other than 'A'? We have no way of confirming 'B', 'C', or 'D' for at least another 3 months, although next month's demand data should give us an insight into 'E'.

I'm going to try to stay grounded and not get carried away just yet. My PD of Apr 25, 2008 isn't around the corner.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 05:54 PM

There are so many permuatations combinations and besides he can do what he pleases. As of now he has enough cases with him that he doesn't need to move a single day by May 2012 before spillover starts. However as we have discussed previously, May 2012 will be too late to process newly filed cases post Aug 2007. That's why whereevr the dates are going to land in 2012 September, that date must become current latest by Mar 2012.

It would be quite saddist to move the dates at the last hour and it will be equally saddist to move dates ONLY upto what 2012 will be able to process. It would be much more humane and prudent as well if the October BTM was to make everything current for one or two months OR at least move the dates to Dec 2007.

He says the dates will slow stop or retro once enough demand is made. What is enough demand? Is it 30k, 25k, 20k? I think based on that, there will be more bursts. This is not the end of it.

Gclongwait

09-09-2011, 05:56 PM

I am beginning to believe in those NVC fee receipts now

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 05:56 PM

A - quite likely.
B - False
C - Possible
D - Not necessarily
E - Absolutely.

A) This is the BTM that we've all been waiting for, just not as B as we'd all hoped for.
B) This marks the beginning of an era of quarterly spill over.
C) They were conservative with EB2-IC movement for the Sep VB, and maybe expected EB1 & EB2ROW demand didn't pan out, leaving us with unused 2011 visa numbers; these don't expire on Sep 30, 2011 as we all thought but can be used in October 2011.
D) Between the worsening economy, the lower than expected EB1/EB2ROW runrate demand, the elimination of all EB1/EB2ROW inventory, and the elimination of EB5 C visas (for 2012), we may see a pretty good spillover next year even if not as high as this years.
E) PWMB and Porting figures are lower than the 5K to 6K figure we had calculated earlier, so we may not see a big enough inventory build up of EB2-IC applicants for a retrogression, so dates may continue to move forward in future months.

Is there a sound basis to believe anything above, other than 'A'? We have no way of confirming 'B', 'C', or 'D' for at least another 3 months, although next month's demand data should give us an insight into 'E'.

I'm going to try to stay grounded and not get carried away just yet. My PD of Apr 25, 2008 isn't around the corner.

Spectator

09-09-2011, 05:57 PM

2. The EB5 quota for china next year is zero. It is a sad news for Chinese EB5 guys ... but good news for EB2IC since it virtually ensures that the EB5 spillover next year could be similar to this year. However there is a caveat here - EB5C can still get the spillover May 2012 onwards. But the idosyncracy that makes EB5C quota ZERO based on some chinese students protection act (why would any chinese stundets go for EB5 directly is beyond me and hence the reduction of EB5C to ZERO doesn't make sense) tells us that VO will not necessarily honor spillover to EB5C either. Making it ZERO shows clear bias against stopping chinese EB5 immigrants. Again ... bad news for them but good news for EB2IC.
I am not sure what the excitement is about.

This is nothing new.

Since at least 1993, China has received 1,000 less visas per year, split 300 from EB3 and 700 from EB5.

It was the quid pro quo for the CHINESE STUDENT PROTECTION ACT of 1992 (S.1216 102nd Congress) http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c102:S.1216: .

From the Bill :

(d) OFFSET IN PER COUNTRY NUMERICAL LEVEL-

(1) IN GENERAL- The numerical level under section 202(a)(2) of the Immigration and Nationality Act applicable to natives of the People's Republic of China in each applicable fiscal year (as defined in paragraph (3)) shall be reduced by 1,000.

(2) ALLOTMENT IF SECTION 202(e) APPLIES- If section 202(e) of the Immigration and Nationality Act is applied to the People's Republic of China in an applicable fiscal year, in applying such section--

(A) 300 immigrant visa numbers shall be deemed to have been previously issued to natives of that foreign state under section 203(b)(3)(A)(i) of such Act in that year, and

(B) 700 immigrant visa numbers shall be deemed to have been previously issued to natives of that foreign state under section 203(b)(5) of such Act in that year.

The same reduction was also shown for this year in this document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

It has been that way for as long as I can remember.

Since China represents the bulk of EB5 approvals, CO either has to wait until July to release numbers to China as spillover, or more likely since demand from other Countries has been so low, operate Quarterly Spillover, which would not have the dangers inherent in operating it in EB2.

The effects of the Chinese Student Protection Act will have no bearing on lowering the number of EB5 approvals, either in FY2011 or FY2012

GCFresher

09-09-2011, 06:00 PM

Thanks Q.

It is indeed a great relief ...for now:p

Alright ... now this is CRAZY!!!!! CO has moved dates for October by 3 months thus releasing exactly 6K of quota. So without any delay lets first congratulate those who are current (including GCFresher and Monica)!

First I thought of taking the credit by saying "I told you "FIRST WEEK OF JULY" for September bulletin. And yes it is very enticing to take credit except for the fact that this movement occured for next year.

I do not know whether they will use 2011 numbers for October approvals or 2012 EB2IC quota. In the past they have used PY number for CY. So its possible. But whatever it is ... guys this takes it one step closer to do a BTM. Lets hope for one ASAP!!

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 06:03 PM

In the last FY, Mr.CO only assigned 2803/12=230 visas every month to EB2 China.

If B is false, he will only approve 230 visas for EB2 China, right?

A - quite likely.
B - False
C - Possible
D - Not necessarily
E - Absolutely.

nishant2200

09-09-2011, 06:05 PM

C seems highly possible. Or they just want to do BTMs carefully in bursts to avoid overload on USCIS.

A - quite likely.
B - False
C - Possible
D - Not necessarily
E - Absolutely.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 06:09 PM

As far as I know, the student protection act granted GC to a bunch of people who didn't take part in the students protest in 1989. You only needed to lie to get a GC. It's called "blood card".

Even today some people lied to the US government that they have been abused by the Chinese government and they got GC in several months. Many Chinese folks faked some stories to humuliate China in order to get their green cards. It's a shame. I lived in China for 22 years and nobody bothered me and it's not as bad as the western media described. I will never lose dignity to get GC. I love and support my home country. My only purpose of staying here is to make a living.

Many people lied and got GC much quicker than the guys who work hard and pay tax. It's a ridiculous system.

I am not sure what the excitement is about.

This is nothing new.

Since at least 1993, China has received 1,000 less visas per year, split 300 from EB3 and 700 from EB5.

It was the quid pro quo for the CHINESE STUDENT PROTECTION ACT of 1992 (S.1216 102nd Congress) http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c102:S.1216: .

From the Bill :

The same reduction was also shown for this year in this document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

It has been that way for as long as I can remember.

Since China represents the bulk of EB5 approvals, CO either has to wait until July to release numbers to China as spillover, or more likely since demand from other Countries has been so low, operate Quarterly Spillover, which would not have the dangers inherent in operating it in EB2.

The effects of the Chinese Student Protection Act will have no bearing on lowering the number of EB5 approvals, either in FY2011 or FY2012

Kanmani

09-09-2011, 06:36 PM

Gclongwait

09-09-2011, 06:51 PM

If this movement is purely for building 2012 demand , they should have moved the dates beyond aug 07 also this is the known demand already in the pipeline except for PWMBs .

This movement could not be taken as a BTM too.
I agree. This is not BTM. This is too less for BTM. This is either first stage of BTM that can extend to another 6 to 9 to 12 months or this is simply filling up last years visas (not sure if thats possible). In my opinion BTM has to cover up next SO + a buffer which this obviously does not.

gcseeker

09-09-2011, 06:56 PM

Congratulations to those whose dates became current today.

Kanmani and Gclongwait

The CO appears to be taking a very conservative approach and like Q/Teddy/Nishant pointed out .It could be various scenarios

1.CO is traditionally very conservative and he is taking an slow approach
2.Does not want to burden USCIS with big movements.
3.There will be bursts of BTM to build demand.

It can only be good going forward since dates are moving.CO will have to do another BTM if he truly wants to build demand before March 2012.
Previously I was very pessimistic in my opinion that 2007 will not get cleared in 2012. Now atleast I can dream that 2007 will probably get cleared by Aug 2012.Maybe it doesn't and the dates retrogress like the CO claims but atleast things are looking up.

qesehmk

09-09-2011, 06:59 PM

October is usually an exception. You will find that October does show unusual levels of approvals - possibly because of leftover visas from prior year. That's why I would hesitate to predict that in 2012 suddenyl Qly spillovers will start. I don't think so.

In the last FY, Mr.CO only assigned 2803/12=230 visas every month to EB2 China.

If B is false, he will only approve 230 visas for EB2 China, right?

Spectator

09-09-2011, 07:00 PM

Congrats to everyone who has become Current in the October VB and commiserations to those that just missed out.

nishant2200

09-09-2011, 07:22 PM

October is usually an exception. You will find that October does show unusual levels of approvals - possibly because of leftover visas from prior year. That's why I would hesitate to predict that in 2012 suddenyl Qly spillovers will start. I don't think so.

Q, if this is indeed due to visa numbers being attached from last FY, this is a great news. It wud mean last FY in fact ended on 15 Jul 2007, in line with ur prediction. As well for this FY it means more visas up for grabs.

leo07

09-09-2011, 07:30 PM

WOW...Thanks TeddyK...I really wasn't expecting and so I wasn't even checking threads much. I got to know only from TeddyK's email to my personal address.
Thanks again

It couldn't have come in a better time..I'm on the border line...my company is bought over by a giant-corp and we are in the midst of transition which could take couple of months. I really wanted to file before that transition happens!!!

I must tell you TeddyK, you are the good news bearer :) I really wish it could have moved couple of more weeks. Not sure what difference it would make at this point. It appears purely a gamble from CIS+DOS to gain more apps and test waters

ssvp22

09-09-2011, 07:36 PM

Congratulations to everyone who became current. Another 3 months and 1 week for me :(

soggadu

09-09-2011, 07:39 PM

soggadu

09-09-2011, 07:50 PM

I think he was over conservative on the September VB.

Now he realized that he needs to be less conservative.

qblogfan bhai.... On the contrary I think this movement happened because the CO couldn't take anymore of your nagging( hey just kidding)... Do you still hate him bro???

TeddyKoochu

09-09-2011, 08:17 PM

cooooool.... Chamak chaloooo CO darling....

1. Congratulations to all who made it... Teddy bhai AAP ka number jaroor ayyega....
2. Who ever is thinking this is start of quarterly spillover, they are wrong as spillover occurs at the end and not at the beginning
3. Not sure about using 27% of all numbers every quarter as it is too early to gauge the demand and make the movement accordingly
4. I feel it happened just because of getting more numbers in so that no visas are wasted come 2012.... I believe the movement still has some steam but I don't want to keep hope... Remember ....aaya tho aaya... Baaki sab maaya.....

I know very little about all this.... So feel free to tear apart my logic( if you feel there is some).....

Friends here are some thoughts on what may happen now. Normally all predictions and calculations are done based on consumption rates from all sources however we are not into the next year yet. So lets analyze things in a qualitative way.

The guiding principle is that this year’s SOFAD has been ~ 30K so at all times they should have 30K 485's available.

Now let’s analyze what’s in the system. There is currently 8.5K published demand and the PWMB intake will be ~ 3.5K. This makes it 12K.

We will have atleast 4-6K porting, lets average to 5K. Porting cases are the easiest to approve. So with this ~ 17K demand is there in the system.

CP and local office demand in the system is virtually nothing. Now what’s left is a 13K intake.

There are 2 scenarios now.

There is another intake next month, CO cannot keep the dates at this level for long, the dates have to move back before more 485's can ripen. My guess is that we are in the heaviest zone and EB2 I/C is atleast 2.5 - 3K a month. Based on this if CO takes intake it can go maximum to 31st December 2007, going into 2008 will be very hard.

Next month the dates retrogress, then they may stay there for another quarter or 2 quarters and then the next batch of intake will be more calculated. Any calculated intake will always be lesser than any knee jerk or flashy intake.

Regardless anyone before Oct 2007 should be fairly certain about both EAD and GC this year. Oct 2007 - Dec 2007 may likely get EAD / AP for GC they are borderline. As time goes on this will be revised so nothing is in stone for now. Let’s all hope for the best. Congratulations once again for everyone who is current. I know that everyone’s concern now is more about getting EAD in the near term than GC. 2011 represents the peak of SOFAD for that kind of momentum to continue something phenomenal may happen. The way we can read it is by measuring the rates of EB2 and EB1. Let’s wait, watch and hope for the best in this regard. For now the dates entering 2008 is a very long shot but it’s not impossible.

TeddyKoochu

09-09-2011, 08:28 PM

cooooool.... Chamak chaloooo CO darling....

1. Congratulations to all who made it... Teddy bhai AAP ka number jaroor ayyega....

Thanks Sogaddu, for your kind works. Everyone’s number I hope comes soon. Your quote's and attitude are great man.

WOW...Thanks TeddyK...I really wasn't expecting and so I wasn't even checking threads much. I got to know only from TeddyK's email to my personal address.
Thanks again

It couldn't have come in a better time..I'm on the border line...my company is bought over by a giant-corp and we are in the midst of transition which could take couple of months. I really wanted to file before that transition happens!!!

I must tell you TeddyK, you are the good news bearer :) I really wish it could have moved couple of more weeks. Not sure what difference it would make at this point. It appears purely a gamble from CIS+DOS to gain more apps and test waters

Leo, thanks for your kind words. We have been though this long together. Sometimes things don't come by when we expect them like in Aug & Sep but they come up quite unexpectedly when we least expect them. So this makes the surprise and happiness even more. I think you have probable waited for the longest time, so well deserved congrats again.

TeddyKoochu

09-09-2011, 08:46 PM

congratulations to all the folks who become current.

hope T will be current next month!

good luck to all! we need to let the congress and DOS hear our voice!

continue to fight for a better treatment to EB immigrants!

Many Thanks my friend, I hope your words come true.

This is great news. I am on vacation n stuck on cumbersome typing on iphone.

As I have been saying earlier, they can always move dates to whatever they want and put some disclaimer as to why and any caveats. Like this is for only capturing demand, as they said this time. I had this discussion earlier n Spec responded, as well as Q.

I think they are setting the stage for this year. This is the first BTM, next I think they will goto 15-Aug-2007 as Bieber said, and then new territory of late 2007.

Nishant I think you are correct, this just the first iteration there is more to come by. BTW you are doing great on the iphone.

You are verry close...good luck!!

Many thanks my friend.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 08:53 PM

haha, I don't hate him, but I am angry about what he has done.

I hope he can move EB2 faster this year. Hope all of us will get GC ASAP!

qblogfan bhai.... On the contrary I think this movement happened because the CO couldn't take anymore of your nagging( hey just kidding)... Do you still hate him bro???

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 08:54 PM

I hope they will approve the cases next month.

I am worrying that they may not approve any, or just approve 2800/12 next month.

He only approved 230 per month for EB2-C last FY.

October is usually an exception. You will find that October does show unusual levels of approvals - possibly because of leftover visas from prior year. That's why I would hesitate to predict that in 2012 suddenyl Qly spillovers will start. I don't think so.

mesan123

09-09-2011, 08:59 PM

Hmm...May be people will hate him till the day he makes there date CURRENT.. :)

qblogfan bhai.... On the contrary I think this movement happened because the CO couldn't take anymore of your nagging( hey just kidding)... Do you still hate him bro???

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 09:01 PM

I also have the same concern.

If this movement is only for building pipeline, this movement can only admit 2k new cases. I think 2k is not significant for this pipeline at all.

If they move PD to Dec.31 2007, it will admit more than 10k new cases.

If this movement is purely for building 2012 demand , they should have moved the dates beyond aug 07 also this is the known demand already in the pipeline except for PWMBs .

This movement could not be taken as a BTM too.

gcq

09-09-2011, 09:12 PM

Adding my speculation,

I don't believe CO is really building a pipeline. He is just adding another piece of pipe to his long pipeline of lies. I suspect he miscalculated EB1/EB2 Row demand for September and reserved too many visas for EB1/EB2 ROW. Once he realized his mistake, to prevent the visas from being wasted, he is pushing the dates 3 months to use up the visas that would have been wasted in September. To cover up this he has to come up with an explanation - building the pipeline.

veni001

09-09-2011, 09:34 PM

Looks like i missed the party!
I was busy at work today, i saw the demand data add replied to Q this afternoon did not expected bulletin today! Came home getting ready for the weekend, as my routine(after dinner) came to check our forum to my surprise that October VB is out, EB2IC did move and my PD is "C".

This is a great bulletin for EB2 - India its a big move by 3 months its actually an intake of the PWMB's. EB3-I also moved by a week. All in all a great bulletin. Unfortunately for me I missed by a few days but can almost see the light now! Congrats to all PWMB’s who are finally current. QBF I hope they actually do quarterly spillover this time it will be a great step forward and ensure good orderly approvals.

Teddy,
I was thinking about you when i looked at VB for EB2I cut-off date. It is really tough, hag in there you are very close to the end of the tunnel.

Well Teddy ... sad for you. Sucker shouldv'e moved the dates by a few more weeks and made it current but he didn't. But now I am thinking is this his BTM so that he can pull in all PWMBs and then retro in november. We will see.

Q,
Let's hope not! since the new filings( PWMB) no way appear in November the demand.

Also congrats to Veni even he is current now, Bieber & mesan123 thanks for your kind words. The EAD span extends till 15th Aug, 17th Aug was the last filing date.

Thank you

Veni brother congratulations, also to Monica, pch, leo and if i forget any

bieber,
Thank you

03may2007, I remember u :)

If CO did this last month, the party would have just continued..

Agree.

Congrats to everyone who has become Current in the October VB and commiserations to those that just missed out.

Spec,
Thank you

Congratulations to everyone who became current. Another 3 months and 1 week for me :(

Thanks to all of you and congratulations to those who will be current in Oct'11.

rdsingh79

09-09-2011, 09:41 PM

Not yet done..

My guess is that dates will move forward in Nov and Dec VB..possibly by 3 months each based on this exerpt "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

I don't think 3-4K new demand generated by Oct VB movement will be enough. As Gurus mentioned before, they are probably looking for atleast 10-15k new 485 filings. This means dates moving to Dec'07 before retrogessing in Q2.

My pd is 28 Sep 2007...so there might be some expectancy bias in above statements :)

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 09:45 PM

I have the same suspect. I think EB1/EB2 ROW demand is too thin, so he has to use the visas on EB2 C&I. Some EB1 cases with PD July have been approved in 2 months. It's a strong sign.

The 1 million dollar question is:

Will they approve all the EB2 C&I cases with PDs before July 15? If they approve all these cases, that means it's not BTM.
If they only approve several hundred cases, then it's BTM.

This is also the first time that CO combines C&I in October of the new FY.

Adding my speculation,

I don't believe CO is really building a pipeline. He is just adding another piece of pipe to his long pipeline of lies. I suspect he miscalculated EB1/EB2 Row demand for September and reserved too many visas for EB1/EB2 ROW. Once he realized his mistake, to prevent the visas from being wasted, he is pushing the dates 3 months to use up the visas that would have been wasted in September. To cover up this he has to come up with an explanation - building the pipeline.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 09:47 PM

Keep fingers crossed.

Actually I checked the data and Oct.VB only brings 2-3k new demand. It does not increase his pipeline too much.

Everything is so confusing! Let's see what will happen next month!

Not yet done..

My guess is that dates will move forward in Nov and Dec VB..possibly by 3 months each based on this exerpt "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility."

I don't think 3-4K new demand generated by Oct VB movement will be enough. As Gurus mentioned before, they are probably looking for atleast 10-15k new 485 filings. This means dates moving to Dec'07 before retrogessing in Q2.

My pd is 28 Sep 2007...so there might be some expectancy bias in above statements :)

vedu

09-09-2011, 09:48 PM

I am interpreting the statement in the visa bulletin regarding EB2 IC future movements little differently than others.

The first sentence reads, "The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India". This to me indicates that the current 3 months movement is a natural progress based on the numbers availability.

The second sentence reads, " The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use". I take the word "intended" as "expected" in coming months. After all, this whole statement is about possible future movement.

And the last sentence reads, "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility." This is straightforward. After generating enough demand during the next few months, the movement will eventually slow down, stop or retrogress.

So, the bottom line is that we haven't yet seen the rapid movement. What we have seen in the current bulletin is the normal movement based on the numbers available and most of the cases till July 15th will be cleared soon. And a big movement is on the cards for the next couple of visa bulletins.

Am I reading too much into this statement?

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 09:48 PM

Congratulations to you! Hope CO can approve all the old PDs!

Looks like i missed the party!
I was busy at work today, i saw the demand data add replied to Q this afternoon did not expected bulletin today! Came home getting ready for the weekend, as my routine(after dinner) came to check our forum to my surprise that October VB is out, EB2IC did move and my PD is "C".

Teddy,
I was thinking about you when i looked at VB for EB2I cut-off date. It is really tough, hag in there you are very close to the end of the tunnel.

Q,
Let's hope not! since the new filings( PWMB) no way appear in November the demand.

Thank you

Agree.

Spec,
Thank you

Thanks to all of you and congratulations to those who will be current in Oct'11.

veni001

09-09-2011, 09:50 PM

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 09:52 PM

Add one thing: "Distinct Possibility" means it's very likely the VB will not retrogress.

Another question is: what is the sufficient demand? 20k or 30k?

Second questions is: will USCIS really approve most of the cases with PD earlier than July 15?

Can somebody answer these two questions?

I am interpreting the statement in the visa bulletin regarding EB2 IC future movements little differently than others.

The first sentence reads, "The current cut-off date is approaching the most favorable date previously reached for applicants from China and India". This to me indicates that the current 3 months movement is a natural progress based on the numbers availability.

The second sentence reads, " The rapid forward movement is intended to generate demand based on new filings for adjustment of status at U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services offices, which currently accounts for over 85% of all Employment-based number use". I take the word "intended" as "expected" in coming months. After all, this whole statement is about possible future movement.

And the last sentence reads, "Once the level of demand increases sufficiently, it may be necessary to slow or stop the cut-off movement, and a retrogression of the cut-offs at some point during the year is a distinct possibility." This is straightforward. After generating enough demand during the next few months, the movement will eventually slow down, stop or retrogress.

So, the bottom line is that we haven't yet seen the rapid movement. What we have seen in the current bulletin is the normal movement based on the numbers available and most of the cases till July 15th will be cleared soon. And a big movement is on the cards for the next couple of visa bulletins.

Am I reading too much into this statement?

veni001

09-09-2011, 09:52 PM

Congratulations to you! Hope CO can approve all the old PDs!

qblogfan.
Thank you and i am hoping for quarterly spillover.

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 09:53 PM

I agree with you completely.

These numbers will not become demand in 2-3 months.

I think they will use 6k visas on EB2 C&I in Q1. This will be the first time that they use this big number on EB2 C&I.

rdsingh,

I am kind of feeling the same way.

Based on current processing time frames, none of the new EB2IC PWMB will appear as documentarily qualified demand at least until January 2012!

qblogfan

09-09-2011, 09:54 PM

I hope you will be approved soon!

qblogfan.
Thank you and i am hoping for quarterly spillover.

soggadu

09-09-2011, 09:59 PM

so our dear ol veni is a he ? ..... Oh my god... That's a disappointment.....who told Oct bulletin is all about good news ;-);-);-)

veni.... Tum Jo bhi... CongrAts on getting current.....

veni001

09-09-2011, 10:03 PM

so our dear ol veni is a he ? ..... Oh my god... That's a disappointment.....who told Oct bulletin is all about good news ;-);-);-)

veni.... Tum Jo bhi... CongrAts on getting current.....

soggadu,
Thank you but sorry for disappointing you ! :)

svbmanian

09-09-2011, 10:34 PM

leo07

09-09-2011, 10:35 PM

Congratulations to everyone who will be current on October 1st. Good Luck to people who are on the fence, it's just a matter of weeks now.

veni001

09-09-2011, 10:47 PM

Are you sure the PWMB will not be qualified by Jan 2012, when in the past few months people who filed -1485 in june got the GC by end of july. I know a case who got 1-485 reciept in middle of Aug and getting finger print notice this week.

EB2IC PWBM for PD2006 is negligible and based on PWMB PERM breakdown (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29), EB2IC PWMB with PD-2007 and was able to file in FY2011 is very minimal (~1k).

It is very unlikely that based on current processing time frames for 485 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?92-Processing-Times-as-of-June-30-2011) that any new EB2IC PWMB able to file 485 in October (15APR07 - 15JUL07) will appear in demand data before January 2012.

03May07

09-09-2011, 11:03 PM

Unable to enjoy the happiness of becoming current this VB, becos of payment issues with Vendor(5 months pay) overtaking my mind. Vendor a Psuedo desi.
Thank you Bieber for remembering me and congratulations to all whose dates are current. Good luck to everyone else.
Q, whatever happened to your source? Is he not back from vacation?

veni001

09-09-2011, 11:08 PM

tanu_75

09-10-2011, 01:10 AM

Congratulations to the July 07 folks on becoming current. Past 4 years must have been especially hard having been so close to filing the 485. Hopefully we'll see dates move into 2008 through quarterly spillover.

Monica12

09-10-2011, 03:41 AM

OMG !!!! Is this really true????? cannot believe it.. I think I just got current.................Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!
Q, you were spot on... about the July 15 date in Sep...just that it happened in Oct instead......thanks so much for keeping my hopes alive :)
Soggadu..buddy...can you please change your avatar now and keep dancing ;0
Congrats Veni ! Teddy, hang in there...hope you get current very soon !

GCDespo

09-10-2011, 04:42 AM

I still cannot believe it.My PD May 24 became current.I am a PWMB.So happy that I am crying.

Monica12

09-10-2011, 04:45 AM

I still cannot believe it.My PD May 24 became current.I am a PWMB.So happy that I am crying.

Buddy, you are not alone...I'm crying too and can't stop :D This is such an emotional roller-coaster !

gcoracle

09-10-2011, 07:07 AM

Hearty congratulations to all of those who are current in oct vb. Hoping that Dec 2007 will be current soon. Wife's 6 years H1B expires in november (her company did not sponsor her GC). She is almost depressed that she has to quit working, come november. Getting EAD will make her extremely happy. Keeping our fingers crossed. You've gotta have hope. Without hope life is meaningless. Without hope life is meaning less and less.

qesehmk

09-10-2011, 08:15 AM

3M, honestly I had given up and so didnt bother to check.

Q, whatever happened to your source? Is he not back from vacation?

Monica / GCDespo - truly happy for you all. Soggadu needs new dancing avatar. His current one also is a favorite of my daughter. She bursts into laughter every single time she sees it!!

OMG !!!! Is this really true????? cannot believe it.. I think I just got current.................Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee !!!!
Q, you were spot on... about the July 15 date in Sep...just that it happened in Oct instead......thanks so much for keeping my hopes alive :)
Soggadu..buddy...can you please change your avatar now and keep dancing ;0
Congrats Veni ! Teddy, hang in there...hope you get current very soon !

I still cannot believe it.My PD May 24 became current.I am a PWMB.So happy that I am crying.

Hearty congratulations to all of those who are current in oct vb. Hoping that Dec 2007 will be current soon. Wife's 6 years H1B expires in november (her company did not sponsor her GC). She is almost depressed that she has to quit working, come november. Getting EAD will make her extremely happy. Keeping our fingers crossed. You've gotta have hope. Without hope life is meaningless. Without hope life is meaning less and less.
gcoracle, within 1 Yr both of you will be free of H1B slavery...hope that EAD comes much sooner.

mesan123

09-10-2011, 08:16 AM

congrats monica .... enjoy the moment..

Buddy, you are not alone...I'm crying too and can't stop :D This is such an emotional roller-coaster !

neospeed

09-10-2011, 08:17 AM

wow this is really unexpected. Best of luck to everyone who are current

rdsingh79

09-10-2011, 08:29 AM

I am sure this is true for everyone here....emotions are building up behind a huge wall for last so many years...and the wall will be broken the day I become current (sep 2007)...or when i get GC in hand.:D.

Buddy, you are not alone...I'm crying too and can't stop :D This is such an emotional roller-coaster !

natvyas

09-10-2011, 08:32 AM

ALL,

what does this mean with regards to further (future) movement?

Regards
Nat

druvraj

09-10-2011, 09:23 AM

My PD date is feb 2008 and after the Sept bulletin I have prepared myself for 2 years wait (Which I might have to still) but when such news comes this becomes a true roller coaster ride which is what I hate. I will certainly not complain if I get it earlier but if not then the expectation becomes hard to manage. All in all I guess everyone who intents to immigrate has to go through this ride. Congrats to all to got it and hope rest of us get it soon.

veni001

09-10-2011, 09:26 AM

ALL,

what does this mean with regards to further (future) movement?

Regards
Nat

natvyas,
Looks likes USCIS/DOS worked out a plan to move EB2IC cut-off dates based on EB1/EB2ROW/EB5 demand.

veni001

09-10-2011, 09:28 AM

pakkineni

09-10-2011, 10:02 AM

Guys
Congratulations to all who are current. Came to know about this forum from a friend.

My PD is jul 31'07 (PWMB) , but now am in a situation and trying to find out what is the best option
- My h1b is going to expiry in dec'11 , Am working as a consultant (my employer is desi emp) for a client from last 3+ yrs and now the client is saying i have to take full time or leave , If i choose to leave i have to find another client ASAP and get the letter from the client to apply for visa extension in nov/dec this yr.
If i choose to take FT with client they will start GC only after 1yr . And being this close to my PD am not sure what to do.

any idea/suggestions? thank you.

ssvp22

09-10-2011, 10:19 AM

qesehmk

09-10-2011, 10:42 AM

It seems the client cant afford consulting rate and wants to cut costs but likes you. Is there any way you can delay by at least 2 months .. that way at least you more than likely go past 485. I do think that there is a very good chance of another movement.

Visa extension you are going to need no matter what unfortunately. To go on EAD you need to have 485 filed at least for 6 months.

I agree w SSVP that you shouldn't trust the client to process GC after 1 yr. Tell them its so close that they should do it ASAP and you should have it in writing from them.

Guys
Congratulations to all who are current. Came to know about this forum from a friend.

My PD is jul 31'07 (PWMB) , but now am in a situation and trying to find out what is the best option
- My h1b is going to expiry in dec'11 , Am working as a consultant (my employer is desi emp) for a client from last 3+ yrs and now the client is saying i have to take full time or leave , If i choose to leave i have to find another client ASAP and get the letter from the client to apply for visa extension in nov/dec this yr.
If i choose to take FT with client they will start GC only after 1yr . And being this close to my PD am not sure what to do.

any idea/suggestions? thank you.