EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011 [Archive] - Page 27

Spectator

08-15-2011, 11:41 AM

Spec I am referring to this post of yours , and I marked the line where it doesn't make sense to me .

you are reducing 12K from the left over 29K . Why?

At the end of July EB1 appeared to have used 21.5k, leaving 18.5k left for further approvals and spillover.
EB1 allocation is 40k. If they have used 21.5k by the end of July, then 18.5k remains of that allocation.

At the end of July, EB2-ROW appeared to have used 21k and MP around 3k, leaving about 10.5k left for further approvals and spillover.
EB2-ROW-MP allocation is 34.4k. If they have used 24k by the end of July, then 10.4k remains of that allocation.

That is 29k left for EB1 and EB2-ROW after July.
18.5 + 10.4 = c. 29k That has to cover both further EB1/EB2-ROW approvals and the contribution to SOFAD. The more approvals in August/September, the less available to SOFAD.

Reduce that by the extra 12k leaves 17k, when 19.4k is required for 31k SOFAD.
If another 12k EB1/EB2-ROW cases remain to be approved in August/September then the total spare visas for the year (including the 12k spare announced in May VB) available towards SOFAD from EB1/EB2-ROW becomes 29 - 12 = 17k

That would give SOFAD of 17 + 6 (from EB5) + 5.6 (normal allocation) = 28.6k.

It is a coincidence that the 12k EB1/EB2-ROW extra demand is the same number as the 12k spare EB1 visas announced in the May VB.

gurpreet

08-15-2011, 12:22 PM

Hi Q,
I was just going through trackitt data and found out that you have updated your case status. It says you got approved on August 10th, 2011. CONGRATULATIONS and thanks for everything.

Kanmani

08-15-2011, 12:31 PM

Spectator

08-15-2011, 12:33 PM

Hi Q - when you get time, can you please update your post #1 with the expected or predicted movement and SOFAD for FY2012. Thank you.

ie, thanks. I will update. Thanks for reminding!Q,

Sorry to sound like a broken record, but I think it would best to start a new thread for FY2012 and leave this one for FY2011.

The history of the final prediction is preserved and we start with a manageable sized new thread.

Spectator

08-15-2011, 12:38 PM

Thank you Spec for your patience. Agreed now. I took the 12k as the extras annuounced in May.

Taking a diff route I am also arriving to the same number of 2.4K short , if we consider 12K EB1+ EB2 extra demand still waiting .

Balance left 17K (remove 12K demand ) = 5.0K

Balance required to reach 31K = 7.4K

Shortage is 2.4kKanmani,

Thanks for your patience with me.

The 12k figure for two different items did make it potentially confusing.

Remember though that the calculations probably have an error margin of at least 2.5k either way, so it is only a possibility.

We will only know the truth when the official DOS figures are published in January 2012, although I hope we will get some leaks before then, as we did last year.

qesehmk

08-15-2011, 12:40 PM

Spec

No worries. That's exactly what we should be doing. Lets brainstorm among us, structure teh new thread and then open it up for everybody. Until then as far as 2011 is concerned we will use and preserve this thread.

Q,

Sorry to sound like a broken record, but I think it would best to start a new thread for FY2012 and leave this one for FY2011.

The history of the final prediction is preserved and we start with a manageable sized new thread.

druvraj

08-15-2011, 01:02 PM

Hi All,

I had a visitor from USICS auditing me and my company on my immigration status. I am not too sure he was inquiring about my GC or just H1B. Has anyone been audited like this before and if yes what happened next. I am currently on H1B with approved i140 and currently because of my I140 got an H1b extension of 3 years after my 6 H1b years. My PD is Feb2008.

haripathhi

08-15-2011, 01:49 PM

Druvraj,

USCIS has been auditing companies regarding H1-B processes on a random basis since the past 2-3 years. This is now considered a normal part of their process wherein they make sure that all the processes and procedures w.r.t the client/parent company is in place.

Hi All,

I had a visitor from USICS auditing me and my company on my immigration status. I am not too sure he was inquiring about my GC or just H1B. Has anyone been audited like this before and if yes what happened next. I am currently on H1B with approved i140 and currently because of my I140 got an H1b extension of 3 years after my 6 H1b years. My PD is Feb2008.

druvraj

08-15-2011, 02:04 PM

nishant2200

08-15-2011, 02:08 PM

Mine is a non-consulting company, and even at our workplace, I have heard that couple of times USCIS officers have come to audit. I don't know what details they verified or what they did, but have not seen any problems with any employee in their immigration or H1 matters.

Hi All,

I had a visitor from USICS auditing me and my company on my immigration status. I am not too sure he was inquiring about my GC or just H1B. Has anyone been audited like this before and if yes what happened next. I am currently on H1B with approved i140 and currently because of my I140 got an H1b extension of 3 years after my 6 H1b years. My PD is Feb2008.

Nishant_imt

08-15-2011, 02:54 PM

I had a visit too in late may. It was for H1B, not for GC. They asked me all sorts of questions and then very recently, they asked my company to reply back with similar questions. I don't know what the outcome of this process would be, but the DHS official was very congenial and told me that this was to ensure if there was any visa fraud involved. I asked her about what kind of things they were looking for, and she told me that people don't work at the place they have mentioned on the H1B application, instead are found working at gas stations and all. But the list of questions they sent to my employer were more relating to employer employee relationship. I will post once i know the outcome, but for now, my company lawyer has drafted a reply which will be sent soon to USCIS and DHS.

qesehmk

08-15-2011, 03:02 PM

Friends
For 2011 discussion lets continue to use this thread. In a few days we will start the 2012 thread.
This i.e. 2011 thread will be closed on 1st October. After that 2012 thread will become our default thread.

10102007

08-15-2011, 03:03 PM

she told me that people don't work at the place they have mentioned on the H1B application.

I work for a consulting company and I changed projects recently after I got my H1 extension approval while I was working at another client. I was told that it is enough to just file a new LCA. Is this correct? I'm asking because of the quoted sentence above. Is work location specified in the H1 application?

gcq

08-15-2011, 03:15 PM

I work for a consulting company and I changed projects recently after I got my H1 extension approval while I was working at another client. I was told that it is enough to just file a new LCA. Is this correct? I'm asking because of the quoted sentence above. Is work location specified in the H1 application?

Please refer to these news letters from Ron

H1b Amendments- when are they really required? (http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-6-15/H1B-amendments,html.html)

H1b Amendments- when are they really required? - Part II (http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-6-30/part-2-h1b-amendments.html)

Typically you just need to file LCA

When a beneficiary is transferred from a firm to another firm within the same organization, and the new firm becomes the beneficiary’s employer. The mere transfer of the beneficiary to another work site, in the same occupation, does not require the filing of an amended petition provided the initial petitioner remains the alien’s employer and, provided further, the supporting labor condition application remains valid.

sandeep11

08-15-2011, 03:16 PM

If you don't mind, can you list out the questions you were asked. May be that will help others prepare for a similar situation.

Thanks.

I had a visit too in late may. It was for H1B, not for GC. They asked me all sorts of questions and then very recently, they asked my company to reply back with similar questions. I don't know what the outcome of this process would be, but the DHS official was very congenial and told me that this was to ensure if there was any visa fraud involved. I asked her about what kind of things they were looking for, and she told me that people don't work at the place they have mentioned on the H1B application, instead are found working at gas stations and all. But the list of questions they sent to my employer were more relating to employer employee relationship. I will post once i know the outcome, but for now, my company lawyer has drafted a reply which will be sent soon to USCIS and DHS.

nishant2200

08-15-2011, 06:03 PM

Friends, I have copied a couple of posts giving information on what to do when job location changes with regards to H1 visa to:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?21-H1B-Related-Topics

I have not moved because they are in the flow of a larger discussion going on about H1 audit from USCIS, and hopefully the discussion will get richer further.

qesehmk

08-16-2011, 07:33 AM

Made - what I would consider - final update to the header. We will continue to use this thread for discussion about 2011 until we are ready to move over to 2012 thread.

nishant2200

08-16-2011, 07:56 AM

Q, what an excellent update and summary. This has been a roller coaster emotional ride. Thanks all of you.

memk26

08-16-2011, 09:08 AM

Now PWMB should be -People with PD prior to Jul-2007 who missed the boat again in 2011 :)

gcq

08-16-2011, 09:31 AM

Q,
quoted below from the header. Can we expect the spillover to start earlier than May in 2012 ? Starting spillover earlier is always a risk for DOS as they may run out of visas if surprise EB1 and EB2 row cases become qualified in the last quarter. Considering DOS's experience with EB1 this year, I feel DOS may start spillover only in July next year.

In terms of dates, this would mean the dates moving by about 9-12 months within 1 Year from now. But given the demand cliff that exists in August 2007, USCIS must have at least 6-9 months to process all those 485 cases and as a result in 2012, we don't think that we have to wait until May or June to see dates move in a signficant manner. More than likely we MUST see a movement by Mar 2012.

essenel

08-16-2011, 09:34 AM

Q, thanks for the 2011 update and summary - very useful information. I was just wondering though about the last para:

"In terms of dates, this would mean the dates moving by about 9-12 months within 1 Year from now. But given the demand cliff that exists in August 2007, USCIS must have at least 6-9 months to process all those 485 cases and as a result in 2012, we don't think that we have to wait until May or June to see dates move in a signficant manner. More than likely we MUST see a movement by Mar 2012."

Is this the general opinion now among the gurus, that we will most likely see a movement by Mar 2012, or are there still differing opinions about this? I've been following this thread religiously, so I know there was a lot of discussion about this, but I wasn't able to get a feel for what the consensus was....

qesehmk

08-16-2011, 10:02 AM

gcq we will see as we go ahead. Not moving the dates early enough has the potential to waste visas.

Q,
quoted below from the header. Can we expect the spillover to start earlier than May in 2012 ? Starting spillover earlier is always a risk for DOS as they may run out of visas if surprise EB1 and EB2 row cases become qualified in the last quarter. Considering DOS's experience with EB1 this year, I feel DOS may start spillover only in July next year.

Is this the general opinion now among the gurus, that we will most likely see a movement by Mar 2012, or are there still differing opinions about this? I've been following this thread religiously, so I know there was a lot of discussion about this, but I wasn't able to get a feel for what the consensus was....
I should make it clear this is not necessarily concensus. This is my "opinion".

sidd21

08-16-2011, 10:07 AM

srinivasj

08-16-2011, 11:05 AM

Q's and all the gurus,

Update :We had submitted our 485 /765/131 applications on Aug 1 2011.
Received the reciept date : 08/04/2011.
Check cashed : 08/04/2011.

I was wondering if anyone has an idea or advise the normal wait time to get a fingerprinting notice and EAD's.

Also About the green card, will i get it before this year end.?

All your answers are really appreciated and best of luck to all ( people waiting to submit their application and people waiting for their GC).
I submitted mine on july 1st..got receipt around 20th of july and fingerprint notice on Aug 1st for appointment date of Aug 29th..hope that helps..

as all gurus have been predicting that there will be no retrogression and with that no RFE's on your application..you should get GC in 4 months..I believe that is the current processing time..

srini1976

08-16-2011, 11:37 AM

NSC: Both our cases are approved on 08/11/2011. Received CP ordered notification email on 08/11/2011 and Welcome notices by snail mail on 08/13/2011. Waiting for Green Cards.
Many Thanks to Q, Teddy, Spec and other Gurus.
All the Best.

qesehmk

08-16-2011, 11:43 AM

Congrats srini!

NSC: Both our cases are approved on 08/11/2011. Received CP ordered notification email on 08/11/2011 and Welcome notices by snail mail on 08/13/2011. Waiting for Green Cards.
Many Thanks to Q, Teddy, Spec and other Gurus.
All the Best.

Q's and all the gurus,

Update :We had submitted our 485 /765/131 applications on Aug 1 2011.
Received the reciept date : 08/04/2011.
Check cashed : 08/04/2011.

I was wondering if anyone has an idea or advise the normal wait time to get a fingerprinting notice and EAD's.

Also About the green card, will i get it before this year end.?

All your answers are really appreciated and best of luck to all ( people waiting to submit their application and people waiting for their GC).

FP is a significant thing. Once that is done (including background check), you should receive it in a couple of months max. If everything is in order ... I do agree 4 months you should be all set!

Sandeep2011

08-16-2011, 12:21 PM

Sandeep2011

08-16-2011, 12:29 PM

Question for Gurus

I work for a management consulting company which also has a private equity subsidiary. My I-140 was sponsored by this private equity subsidiary, there are talks about merging this PE subsidiary back with larger managament consulting company. Will that have any impact on my I-140, which has already been approved? I will really appreciate some guidance on this. Thanks.

soggadu

08-16-2011, 12:29 PM

congratulations srini bhai...

leo07

08-16-2011, 06:47 PM

It looks like it will have an impact on your I-140. The new company( who ever owns you) must file a I-140 amendment to your original, with successor of interest clause.

Question for Gurus

I work for a management consulting company which also has a private equity subsidiary. My I-140 was sponsored by this private equity subsidiary, there are talks about merging this PE subsidiary back with larger managament consulting company. Will that have any impact on my I-140, which has already been approved? I will really appreciate some guidance on this. Thanks.

nishant2200

08-16-2011, 07:30 PM

Murthy article on the PERM PWD pause.

http://murthy.com/news/n_dolpwd.html

It says time-frames are uncertain as to when it will be back, and from this one, it looks like apart from H2, even GC and H1 extensions are affected. People needing H1 extension, better contact lawyer to remove any doubt.

Sandeep2011

08-16-2011, 08:52 PM

It looks like it will have an impact on your I-140. The new company( who ever owns you) must file a I-140 amendment to your original, with successor of interest clause.

Thanks Q, Leo. I have gone ahead and scheduled a meeting with my lawyer for next Monday. Will update the group after that. I am sure there will be several of us in similar situation given that M&A activities are picking up.

mesan123

08-16-2011, 09:09 PM

Hmm i see new terminology for all members now..it no longer mentions new members, members and guru....it represent like college years... nice change moderators :)

nishant2200

08-16-2011, 10:05 PM

It will ding us to a certain extent, especially with the PP for EB1C leading to probably more SYA. But I don't think the trend is an increasing trend, it has always been like this. We can monitor situation on trackitt for new FY, when things start rolling for FY 2012. As of now, too early to say how big of an effect it will be. We can start with the assumption that everything is same as this year, and as situation unfolds, change that assumption.

Last year, the surprise help was from FB, then this year, Kazarian for EB1, let's keep fingers crossed that some other factor, like for eg: Economy, helps us this year next year, to achieve a high SOFAD.

My first post here. Great job by the experts in making sense out of this huge amount of data.

knight - i have also personally seen this happening and feel your pain. It is also being done in Intel and MS.

It does look like EB1C is going to be a silent killer.I have known tens of folks who got GCs within a year in this category and earlier my reaction used to be "its good that at least some companies are standing up for their employees...good for them". But over the last 2 years, the number has grown multifold and this category has turned into one big loophole.

iamdeb

08-17-2011, 08:27 AM

You can add companies like Cognizant, Infosys etc to that list who are misusing the EB1 quota.I don't understand how managerial experience of 1 year can be equal to a PhD. It makes no sense at all. There should strict guidelines to follow for this category else people will slip under our nose and come out with GC within a year. I personally know few such people who are in CTS. Its simply nerve wrecking and pathetic.

imechanix

08-17-2011, 09:04 AM

Hypothetical Scenario & Question:

Scenario: As you know recently perm system went down & will not be up & running until October. Let's assume that in the coming quarter or next EB2 ROW demands becomes zero.

Question: Can CO use the argument he used in the last May bulletin "At this time the amount of demand being received in the EB2ROW is extremely low compared with that of recent years" & then decide to move EB2IC dates.

qesehmk

08-17-2011, 09:08 AM

Good point. Theoretically it would be possible if DoS were using quaterly spillover. But they don't. However as we have seen they are capable of pulling any trick out of their hat. So I wouldn't rule it out.

Hypothetical Scenario & Question:

Scenario: As you know recently perm system went down & will not be up & running until October. Let's assume that in the coming quarter or next EB2 ROW demands becomes zero.

Question: Can CO use the argument he used in the last May bulletin "At this time the amount of demand being received in the EB2ROW is extremely low compared with that of recent years" & then decide to move EB2IC dates.

10102007

08-17-2011, 09:23 AM

All,
Not to sidetrack but let us try to refocus here.

One issue that affects most of us while waiting forthe dates to be current is the Stamping issue. We all know about the exhaustive scrutiny and sadism that ishappening these days. I have a few questions:

1. The scrutiny seems to be extremely high for EmP-Vend-client models (EVC).
Does this model violate H1B rules? If yes, why is the USCIS approving it here at the first place. (ie. After verifying all documents by issuing an RFE)

2. This administrative processing seems robe a blackbox. No timeframe is given. Any suggestions on do's and dont's is greatly appreciated.

3. People in similar situations, please post your experiences with the following information.
- # of successful previous stampings
- model (EVC or DCdirect client)
- consulate name
- date
- response (successful/ RFE/ Admin Processing etc.)

Gurus - please create a new thread as it will be very helpful.

gcq

08-17-2011, 09:45 AM

10102007,
You can start new thread from the link http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?19-LIVE-DISCUSSION. Then click the button "+Post New Thread".

qesehmk

08-17-2011, 09:53 AM

Guys ... just a reminder that the poll in the thread http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=7593#post7593 will close in next few days.

Spectator

08-17-2011, 11:20 AM

Posted: August 17, 2011

As of: June 30, 2011

NSC

I-140 - Extraordinary ability ------------------------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Outstanding professor or researcher ----------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Multinational executive or manager ------------------------------------ 4 months
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability -------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Skilled worker or professional ---------------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Unskilled worker ------------------------------------------------------ 4 months
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability requesting a NIW --------------- 4 months
I-140 - Schedule A Nurses ---------------------------------------------- 09 October 2010

I-485 - Employment-based adjustment applications ----------------------- 28 January 2011

TSC

I-140 - Extraordinary ability ------------------------------------------ 02 October 2010
I-140 - Outstanding professor or researcher ---------------------------- 02 October 2010
I-140 - Multinational executive or manager ----------------------------- 02 October 2010
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability ------------------------- 09 October 2010
I-140 - Skilled worker or professional ------------------------------- 30 September 2010
I-140 - Unskilled worker --------------------------------------------- 30 September 2010
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability requesting a NIW ------ 28 September 2010
I-140 - Schedule A Nurses ---------------------------------------------- 09 October 2010

I-485 - Employment-based adjustment applications ---------------------- 03 December 2010

kingcaeser

08-17-2011, 01:14 PM

Friends, I am surprised (pleasantly), when I saw some people saying doors are not closed for EB2 I movement and there are possibilties of movement in October VB and so on.. Can someone throw some light on this?

kingcaeser

08-17-2011, 01:19 PM

The rumors may be wrong but my dead hopes came alive again. I am in Sep17 2007 EB2 I. Friends! your opinions please.. I did not know much abt the calculations though! At the end of the day, it is what it is..

harick

08-17-2011, 01:32 PM

My understanding is, starting October EB2I will get its own quota of 235 visas every month. If all the cases before Apr 15th 2007 are cleared by end of September and there are not many porting number, USCIS have to move the dates by a week or two.

Friends, I am surprised (pleasantly), when I saw some people saying doors are not closed for EB2 I movement and there are possibilties of movement in October VB and so on.. Can someone throw some light on this?

iamdeb

08-17-2011, 02:01 PM

leo07

08-17-2011, 03:33 PM

Guys, let's not speculate and face disappointment.

There's a decent breakdown on us-non-immigrant.blogspot.com---looked bit conservative, but I'd stick to that for now.

Friends, I am surprised (pleasantly), when I saw some people saying doors are not closed for EB2 I movement and there are possibilties of movement in October VB and so on.. Can someone throw some light on this?

leo07

08-17-2011, 03:33 PM

Thanks Spec!
TSC is so pathetic...

Posted: August 17, 2011

As of: June 30, 2011

NSC

I-140 - Extraordinary ability ------------------------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Outstanding professor or researcher ----------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Multinational executive or manager ------------------------------------ 4 months
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability -------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Skilled worker or professional ---------------------------------------- 4 months
I-140 - Unskilled worker ------------------------------------------------------ 4 months
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability requesting a NIW --------------- 4 months
I-140 - Schedule A Nurses ---------------------------------------------- 09 October 2010

I-485 - Employment-based adjustment applications ----------------------- 28 January 2011

TSC

I-140 - Extraordinary ability ------------------------------------------ 02 October 2010
I-140 - Outstanding professor or researcher ---------------------------- 02 October 2010
I-140 - Multinational executive or manager ----------------------------- 02 October 2010
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability ------------------------- 09 October 2010
I-140 - Skilled worker or professional ------------------------------- 30 September 2010
I-140 - Unskilled worker --------------------------------------------- 30 September 2010
I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability requesting a NIW ------ 28 September 2010
I-140 - Schedule A Nurses ---------------------------------------------- 09 October 2010

I-485 - Employment-based adjustment applications ---------------------- 03 December 2010

evoori

08-17-2011, 04:41 PM

Thanks Spec!
TSC is so pathetic...

TSC dates are misleading.. I know atleast two guys who applied under "I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability" in June this year have their I-140 approved last week or so.. so it is arround 2 months processing time..

Spectator

08-17-2011, 05:38 PM

TSC dates are misleading.. I know atleast two guys who applied under "I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability" in June this year have their I-140 approved last week or so.. so it is arround 2 months processing time..evoori,

I agree that the dates aren't necessarily totally representative, but then neither is a sample size of 2 cases! :p

For cases submitted to TSC as regular processing and approved in this FY to date, Trackitt gives a median of:

EB2-ALL - 178 days
EB2-India - 191 days

For NSC, the figures are:

EB2-ALL - 119 days
EB2-India - 120 days

All Service Centers

EB2-ALL - 156 days
EB2-India - 172 days

All Service Centers for approvals in FY2011

EB1A - 263 days - TSC - 272 - NSC - 207
EB1B - 184 days - TSC - 215 - NSC - 107
EB1C - 188 days - TSC - 189 - NSC - 184

Not perfect, but perhaps slightly more representative.

leo07

08-17-2011, 08:51 PM

I'm afraid, I can't say it's misleading:) I'm first hand victim. I applied in October 2010, and my attorney had to withdraw the petition for some errors in the application, that the attorney realized after 8 months. I wouldn't blame the attorney much as the application was an amendment as part of my company's acquisition, it was complicated enough to mess up. My second application was filed in June 2011 in PP; But CIS refused to process the application in PP as the Original-Labor was not attached.( because it's an amendment to an approved 140. :)). Me/Attorney doesn't have original because it's with CIS, with my original 140 :)

Long story short...I'm still waiting for my 140 approval...

TSC dates are misleading.. I know atleast two guys who applied under "I-140 - Advanced degree or exceptional ability" in June this year have their I-140 approved last week or so.. so it is arround 2 months processing time..

Sandeep2011

08-17-2011, 08:52 PM

evoori,

I agree that the dates aren't necessarily totally representative, but then neither is a sample size of 2 cases! :p

For cases submitted to TSC as regular processing and approved in this FY to date, Trackitt gives a median of:

EB2-ALL - 178 days
EB2-India - 191 days

For NSC, the figures are:

EB2-ALL - 119 days
EB2-India - 120 days

All Service Centers

EB2-ALL - 156 days
EB2-India - 172 days

All Service Centers for approvals in FY2011

EB1A - 263 days - TSC - 272 - NSC - 207
EB1B - 184 days - TSC - 215 - NSC - 107
EB1C - 188 days - TSC - 189 - NSC - 184

Not perfect, but perhaps slightly more representative.

Spec, aren't these dates as of June 30, 2011? So, possibly in last month and half TSC may have become better/faster in processing 485s given that we are approaching end of year for USCIS.

Reader

08-17-2011, 09:48 PM

My second application was filed in June 2011 in PP; But CIS refused to process the application in PP as the Original-Labor was not attached.( because it's an amendment to an approved 140. :)). Me/Attorney doesn't have original because it's with CIS, with my original 140 :)

Leo, I will have to go through the same situation due to my company merger coming up during mid 2012. Is it a standard rule that one cannot file in premium processing for I 140 successor in interest amendment?

soggadu

08-18-2011, 08:35 AM

tikkahyd

08-18-2011, 08:59 AM

Received the Cards yesterday !!! End of a 9 year long journey.
A big shout out to Q and everyone on this forum. Thank you !!!!

Though I haven't contributed much to the number crunching, I have always been following the blog religiously almost since inception. It helped me a lot to plan some upcoming career moves.

Will be praying for everyone here to get their cards as soon as possible ...

Cheers.

Spectator

08-18-2011, 09:02 AM

veni001

08-18-2011, 09:20 AM

USCIS dashboard updated with June'11 data.

Shows significant effort to reduce 140 backlog!

qesehmk

08-18-2011, 11:09 AM

tikka, congratulations. Always good to hear good news!

Received the Cards yesterday !!! End of a 9 year long journey.
A big shout out to Q and everyone on this forum. Thank you !!!!

Though I haven't contributed much to the number crunching, I have always been following the blog religiously almost since inception. It helped me a lot to plan some upcoming career moves.

Will be praying for everyone here to get their cards as soon as possible ...

Cheers.

USCIS dashboard updated with June'11 data.

Shows significant effort to reduce 140 backlog!
The 140 graph is worrisome. Last 2 months 5K reduced i.e. equivalent to 10-12K 485. And yet there is almost 30K of 140 remaining. That's a lot. Granted 50% will EB2/3IC. But still the rest 140 is still a lot of impact on future SOFAD.

haripathhi

08-18-2011, 11:31 AM

Agreed Q. However, the stats for the next couple of months could be misleading because of the temporarily suspension of processing of Wage determinations by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings. I guess this figure will be caught up once they start resuming this.

bieber

08-18-2011, 12:45 PM

The 140 graph is worrisome. Last 2 months 5K reduced i.e. equivalent to 10-12K 485. And yet there is almost 30K of 140 remaining. That's a lot. Granted 50% will EB2/3IC. But still the rest 140 is still a lot of impact on future SOFAD.

Q

for fy2011 (till Q3) total 140 receipts 62822
we already know that EB1 140 receipts for fy2011 till July 19th is 13794

so Eb2 receipts for fy2011 are atleast 49028 and pending number from dashboard says 29535. So, may be the pending is mostly from Eb2.

The recently found demand for Eb1 and Eb2 ROW may have directly come from this 140 approval surge/reduction in pending (instead of working on 140s on FIFO basis, they must have sorted out EB1 and EB2 ROW )

veni001

08-18-2011, 01:12 PM

Q

for fy2011 (till Q3) total 140 receipts 62822
we already know that EB1 140 receipts for fy2011 till July 19th is 13794

so Eb2 receipts for fy2011 are atleast 49028 and pending number from dashboard says 29535. So, may be the pending is mostly from Eb2.

The recently found demand for Eb1 and Eb2 ROW may have directly come from this 140 approval surge/reduction in pending (instead of working on 140s on FIFO basis, they must have sorted out EB1 and EB2 ROW )

bieber,
~49k should be both EB2&EB3.

bieber

08-18-2011, 01:26 PM

bieber,
~49k should be both EB2&EB3.
Yes, my bad

Thanks for correcting me Veni

veni001

08-18-2011, 01:37 PM

The 140 graph is worrisome. Last 2 months 5K reduced i.e. equivalent to 10-12K 485. And yet there is almost 30K of 140 remaining. That's a lot. Granted 50% will EB2/3IC. But still the rest 140 is still a lot of impact on future SOFAD.

Q,
Agree, and most of 140 backlog buildup started from FY2010.

Also,
FY 2011 (Q1+Q2) 140 completions ~= 35k
FY 2011 (Q3) 140 completions ~= 27k

At current pace and little more delay in PERM filings (PWD delay), USCIS may be able to caught-up with all 140 backlogs by Q1-2012!

Spectator

08-18-2011, 04:09 PM

The I-526 figures are also interesting.

Receipts YOY are 200% of last year and heading for 175-180% more for a full year.

Completions haven't kept up with that pace, so Pending applications have doubled during the year (although still only a modest 2.6k including those waiting for Customer Action).

Completion numbers are showing the beginnings of an upward trend to keep pace with current Receipt levels.

At the 78.2% approval rate for I-526 and the known 2.9 I-485 per I-526, the backlog represents 5.9k EB5 visas.

The current rate of Receipts (avge. 335/month over last 4 months) would give lead to 3.1k I-526 approvals per year and 9.1k EB5 visas if nothing changed. Probably that worst case might not be reached.

Also bear in mind that the last known use of EB5 in FY2010 of 1.9k stems from a period when receipts were 1/3 of the current level.

We already know that an estimated 2.1k were used in the first half of FY2011.

It is a little early to be sure, but I think we can probably expect much higher numbers of EB5 visas to be used in the future, especially as USCIS have put measures in place to speed up processing.

TeddyKoochu

08-18-2011, 04:26 PM

Q,
Agree, and most of 140 backlog buildup started from FY2010.

Also,
FY 2011 (Q1+Q2) 140 completions ~= 35k
FY 2011 (Q3) 140 completions ~= 27k

At current pace and little more delay in PERM filings (PWD delay), USCIS may be able to caught-up with all 140 backlogs by Q1-2012!

Veni & Q thanks for your analysis. The backlog in Q3 decreased from 34K in April to 29K in June. The number of completions in Jun 9.4K is virtually double of Feb completions of 4.8K. Since the Aug & Sep bulletins did not show much movement its indicative of the fact that several concurrently filed EB2 ROW and EB1 cases became eligible for approvals it correlates very well with the I140 approval trend. You are correct if the current pace of approvals continues then by the end of Q1 2012 i.e. Dec the I140 backlog might reduce significantly. The key factor will really be the rate of incoming i140 and 485 applications, this surge has the potential to fully consume the entire EB2 ROW and EB1 cap for Q1 at the minimum or even significant part of the Q2 cap at maximum. With this trend continuing we might see the lower projection of SOFAD in 2012. There will be no movement probably even by a few days for EB2-I in Q1 2012 as there will be porting demand coming up for India, China might move though.

Following is a rough demand picture

1) Preadjudicated cases - 8K.
2) PWMB - 4K
3) Expected porting that will come constantly over the year 6K, we should stick with 6k because with Eb2-I being at 15th Apr 2007 potentially more people from EB3 can port and expect to get approved right away.
If we add these 3 the demand till 01-SEP-2007 is ~ 18K. Now the trend for I140 is not in favor of SOFAD because they are being approved at an alarming rate. The SOFAD in the upcoming year is expected to be in the range 20K - 30K (This year’s SOFAD). The current rate of approval of I140 will push the SOFAD very close to the lower end, the Aug and September bulletin freeze is a part of his trend. This way this year may end 01-OCT-2007. Only in the best case scenario with the current information is there is a chance of crossing 2007 this year for GC approvals, intake is totally hypothetical and maybe till a point much further if and when it happens, however there seems to be no possibility at all of any intake before Q3. Also the approval rate in Q1 2012 on Trackitt for EB2 ROW and EB1 will be a critical indicator.

leo07

08-18-2011, 04:30 PM

I spoke that too early...we are getting acquired againnnnnnnnnnnnn :)

imechanix

08-18-2011, 06:02 PM

There will be no movement probably even by a few days for EB2-I in Q1 2012 as there will be porting demand coming up for India

Teddy,

Do you expect the porting demand to come down in next two quarters due to temporary suspension of Wage determinations processing by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings.

Thanks.

veni001

08-18-2011, 07:31 PM

Teddy,

Do you expect the porting demand to come down in next two quarters due to temporary suspension of Wage determinations processing by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings.

Thanks.

imechanix,
Not only porting but also EB2ROW demand depends on several factors.....

1. How long this temporary PWD suspension going to last (1 month, 2 months...1 quarter?)
2. Once PWD is restored, there will be a surge in PERM filings
3. How fast DOL can handle this surge, followed by 140 processing by USCIS
4. Volume of porting/EB2ROW in the current 140 backlog
5. How much porting/EB2ROW from the current 140 backlog will be cleared this year.

TeddyKoochu

08-18-2011, 09:26 PM

Teddy,

Do you expect the porting demand to come down in next two quarters due to temporary suspension of Wage determinations processing by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings.

Thanks.

This delay is happening at a off peak time relative to the Sofad season. So even if it lasts for a few more days to a month more it will not impact volumes as they have 10 months to recoup. However in the interest of those whose H1 extensions are approaching I hope they resolve at the soonest possible.

Sandeep2011

08-18-2011, 09:33 PM

Gclongwait

08-18-2011, 11:14 PM

tikkahyd

08-19-2011, 08:10 AM

Congratulations to you and your family tikkahyd. How long did it take for you to receive your cards after your filed your 485.

Thanks Sandeep !!
Applied my 485 during the july fiasco .. so approximately 4 years ..

gchopeful123

08-19-2011, 09:28 AM

Reg effect on H1,in my opinion this would affect only those people who are on their 6th year of H1 and want to apply for Labor so that they can use it for H1 extension using AC21. This should not affect H1 extensions for people who already have Labor or who are in their 3rd year of H1 and want to extend to 6 years. Just my market depreciated 2 cents...

Not sure where you got this info. Per the HR of my company H1 are not affected by this.

Teddy,

Do you expect the porting demand to come down in next two quarters due to temporary suspension of Wage determinations processing by Department of Labor for H1-B extensions and PERM filings.

Thanks.

imechanix

08-19-2011, 11:29 AM

Not sure where you got this info. Per the HR of my company H1 are not affected by this.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_dolpwd.html

imechanix

08-19-2011, 11:42 AM

From Murthy.com Website.

Conclusions and Considerations for FY12
There were no predictions in the Visa Bulletin for the start of FY12 on October 1, 2011. The EB2 India and China advancement at the end of FY11, and the resulting I-485 case approvals, should make a noticeable impact in the pending I-485 inventory for EB2 India and China. This, hopefully, will avoid any need to retrogress the cutoff dates in these categories, and, potentially, allow for at least some forward movement.

The interesting prospect for the upcoming fiscal year is the complete absence of any pending India and China EB2 I-485s with priority dates after mid August 2007. Since cutoff dates are based on predictions of supply and demand, if enough of the older, long-pending I-485 cases are approved, the cutoff date may have to be advanced to fill the "pipeline" with more cases. Thus, at some point, there is likely to be a noticeable, temporary advancement in the EB2 category for India and China in order to allow for additional case filings.

qesehmk

08-19-2011, 11:49 AM

imechanix thanks. Murthy quote is kind of vague .... but nonetheless also contains something we have consistently maintained (in bold below).

From Murthy.com Website.

Conclusions and Considerations for FY12
There were no predictions in the Visa Bulletin for the start of FY12 on October 1, 2011. The EB2 India and China advancement at the end of FY11, and the resulting I-485 case approvals, should make a noticeable impact in the pending I-485 inventory for EB2 India and China. This, hopefully, will avoid any need to retrogress the cutoff dates in these categories, and, potentially, allow for at least some forward movement.

The interesting prospect for the upcoming fiscal year is the complete absence of any pending India and China EB2 I-485s with priority dates after mid August 2007. Since cutoff dates are based on predictions of supply and demand, if enough of the older, long-pending I-485 cases are approved, the cutoff date may have to be advanced to fill the "pipeline" with more cases. Thus, at some point, there is likely to be a noticeable, temporary advancement in the EB2 category for India and China in order to allow for additional case filings.

imechanix

08-19-2011, 01:31 PM

imechanix thanks. Murthy quote is kind of vague .... but nonetheless also contains something we have consistently maintained (in bold below).

I agree, the statement echoes what we have already discussed before. Except instead of BTM they use NTA (Noticeable Temporary Advancement. :-)

qesehmk

08-19-2011, 01:39 PM

familyguy

08-19-2011, 01:51 PM

with a PD of Jan/2008, It pretty much seems like I have to wait at least two more years to get EAD/GC... its very frustrating :(

Yes.

And may be I should have been more clear too. I think the reason it is vague is it kind of vaguely refers to the fact that existing 485 inventory is coming to an end for EB2IC. But doesn't really talk about portings or PWMB or the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW still have significant demand in pipeline and in future or EB5 situation that Spec outlined just yesterday.

qesehmk

08-19-2011, 02:10 PM

That's being on the pessimistic side. On the optimistic side Aug Sep 2012 you could have it.

with a PD of Jan/2008, It pretty much seems like I have to wait at least two more years to get EAD/GC... its very frustrating :(

whereismygclost

08-19-2011, 02:34 PM

As Teddy pointed out we have a known 18K(8K remaining inventory+4K PWMB+6K Porting) potential demand for 2012. So I agree with family guy that it looks more like 2013 for PD Jan'2008. In fact my PD is 03-OCT-07 and I really have doubts if I will be able to make it in 2012. As Spec pointed EB5 spillover will be lesser next year ..Q and other gurus ..what's your best estimate for SOFAD for 2012?

That's being on the pessimistic side. On the optimistic side Aug Sep 2012 you could have it.

qesehmk

08-19-2011, 02:42 PM

pls check the header. Beyond that at this time at least I am not comfortable saying anything .... the simple reason being ... unless you know where 2011 ended the range of prediction is just too wide to be meaningful. Basically I think the range indeed could be Oct 2007 to Apr 2008. Jan 2008 is not such a wild scenario at all.

As Teddy pointed out we have a known 18K(8K remaining inventory+4K PWMB+6K Porting) potential demand for 2012. So I agree with family guy that it looks more like 2013 for PD Jan'2008. In fact my PD is 03-OCT-07 and I really have doubts if I will be able to make it in 2012. As Spec pointed EB5 spillover will be lesser next year ..Q and other gurus ..what's your best estimate for SOFAD for 2012?

familyguy

08-19-2011, 02:44 PM

Thanks Q for encouraging words... :)
b/n nice article in politico...
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61710.html

That's being on the pessimistic side. On the optimistic side Aug Sep 2012 you could have it.

qesehmk

08-19-2011, 02:49 PM

Good article! Scanned it quickly though. I have always felt that if an immigration reform has to take place the best conditions are - second term, republican president and economy doing well. 2007 fiacso as somebody pointed out (gcseeker?) was one such perfect place. Hence the movement. On the other hand current conditions are the worst conditions first term, democratic president and economy on antarctica!

Thanks Q for encouraging words... :)
b/n nice article in politico...
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0811/61710.html

familyguy

08-19-2011, 03:05 PM

with current political situation and economy, chances of Obama becoming a second term president is less than 50%.. which means there is no hope for CIR in near future... hei baghwan plz bachao!!!!

any ways, happy friday guys :)

Good article! Scanned it quickly though. I have always felt that if an immigration reform has to take place the best conditions are - second term, republican president and economy doing well. 2007 fiacso as somebody pointed out (gcseeker?) was one such perfect place. Hence the movement. On the other hand current conditions are the worst conditions first term, democratic president and economy on antarctica!

superdesi2100

08-19-2011, 03:10 PM

with current political situation and economy, chances of Obama becoming a second term president is less than 50%.. which means there is no hope for CIR in near future... hei baghwan plz bachao!!!!

any ways, happy friday guys :)

First two years of Obama had Democrats in control of both champers of Congress. Obama had promised to bring CIR in the first year of his presidency. Democrats are bigger culprits than Republicans when it comes to legal immigration.

veni001

08-19-2011, 03:14 PM

Yes.

And may be I should have been more clear too. I think the reason it is vague is it kind of vaguely refers to the fact that existing 485 inventory is coming to an end for EB2IC. But doesn't really talk about portings or PWMB or the fact that EB1 and EB2ROW still have significant demand in pipeline and in future or EB5 situation that Spec outlined just yesterday.

Q,

EB5 demand in the pipe line is definitely a concern. But, with almost freeze on EB2IC movement in last two bulletins, i am not exactly sure how much EB5 backlog will be cleared this year itself!

Another trend we need to look into is the EB5 receipts, it looks like, May and June show a downward trend and with the current economic situation, I am not sure if monthly EB5 receipts are going to stay around 300 number?

P.S: FY2009, when the economy went south, EB5 monthly receipts are in double digits only.

qesehmk

08-19-2011, 03:18 PM

Veni

I agree and the simple thought in my mind is always that - once a person has "INVESTABLE" 500,000 USD with him, why the hell s/he would want to pursue GC in his life. S/he already will have enough business interests in the home country to not pursue GC.

Q,

EB5 demand in the pipe line is definitely a concern. But, with almost freeze on EB2IC movement in last two bulletins, i am not exactly sure how much EB5 backlog will be cleared this year itself!

Another trend we need to look into is the EB5 receipts, it looks like, May and June show a downward trend and with the current economic situation, I am not sure if monthly EB5 receipts are going to stay around 300 number?

P.S: FY2009, when the economy went south, EB5 monthly receipts are in double digits only.

mesan123

08-19-2011, 03:28 PM

I agree..another thing to watch is people filling H1b's are coming down drastically...it is already end of August and only 25,300 applications filled till now..as the laws for H1b are getting tough and also with people on H1b's leaving the country with problems like H1b extensions and visa...

if the market is same like this for few years i feel the no of people filling for GC also will come down in EB2I/C catorgeries also....

Gurus can correct me...if my analysis is wrong

Veni

I agree and the simple thought in my mind is always that - once a person has "INVESTABLE" 500,000 USD with him, why the hell s/he would want to pursue GC in his life. S/he already will have enough business interests in the home country to not pursue GC.

bieber

08-19-2011, 03:38 PM

Pfizer and Bank of America announced lay-offs in last 1 week, Economic situation and in general hiring is going to be slow if not reverted (there is 33% chance for global recession)

cbpds1

08-19-2011, 03:40 PM

Very good point GCQ !!, why did the gov think someone wud want to do it, may be we need to interview the folks from this category :)

Veni

I agree and the simple thought in my mind is always that - once a person has "INVESTABLE" 500,000 USD with him, why the hell s/he would want to pursue GC in his life. S/he already will have enough business interests in the home country to not pursue GC.

soggadu

08-19-2011, 03:52 PM

guys...i request everyone of you to please go through this link ( Non immigration )... Mods please remove this post once people get to know...

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?154-Save-your-food&p=7809#post7809

Sandeep2011

08-19-2011, 06:50 PM

Reg effect on H1,in my opinion this would affect only those people who are on their 6th year of H1 and want to apply for Labor so that they can use it for H1 extension using AC21. This should not affect H1 extensions for people who already have Labor or who are in their 3rd year of H1 and want to extend to 6 years. Just my market depreciated 2 cents...

Just an update on H1B extension - one of my colleagues filed for H1b extension on 10th Aug at VSC under premium processing, he received an email today from USCIS that his 129 (extension) has been approved. He was filing for extension beyond 6th year and already has an approved 140.

vizcard

08-19-2011, 10:02 PM

That's being on the pessimistic side. On the optimistic side Aug Sep 2012 you could have it.

But looks like aug 2008 PD will be summer of 2013. Hopefully sooner but I'm getting less optimistic about that.

qesehmk

08-19-2011, 10:09 PM

nayekal

08-19-2011, 11:06 PM

mesan123

08-19-2011, 11:42 PM

The PWD is temporarily suspended only for PERM applications. You can file for H1b LCA. My company applied for my H1b extension LCA on 1st week of August and i got it and filled my H1b extension and waiting for approval..

Good news!
But PWD for LCA has been temporarily suspended from mid July, then how he come is able to apply for H1 extension. Did your colleague applied without LCA or with LCA.

mesan123

08-19-2011, 11:47 PM

nice aplit of SOFAD for each year

One question Q...so each year based on each catogery applications we may get roughly around ~20K spillover + country quota...with this my PD(Feb 2011) will be current by end of 2015(4 years from now)....did i get it right..)i know these are estimates)

Here is a rule of thumb for me and I know others may disagree. But in general after vertical spillovers are cancelled, as far as EB2 is concerned 1 yr movement per year especially in this economy is very much possible.

The simple reason being - 1 Yr = approx 24K backlog.

EB5 usually would give 5-8K
EB2ROWMP - 2-10
EB1 - 0 - 10
EB2IC - 6K
------------
So the average case scenario is 23K. Pretty close to 1 Yr backlog. So for everybody - instead of trying to pessimistic or optimistic keep this rule of thumb in mind and then as we go ahead ... ask yourself which category is risk and accordingly what are your chances.

Being pessimistic is not a good strategy. I would rather be an optimist than a pessimist.

qesehmk

08-20-2011, 06:47 AM

Not only it should be current by then but you should have GC by then.

nice aplit of SOFAD for each year

One question Q...so each year based on each catogery applications we may get roughly around ~20K spillover + country quota...with this my PD(Feb 2011) will be current by end of 2015(4 years from now)....did i get it right..)i know these are estimates)

veni001

08-20-2011, 06:47 AM

veni001

08-20-2011, 06:51 AM

Reforming Employment-Based Immigration - NFAP Policy Brief Aug 2011 (http://www.nfap.com/pdf/ReformingEmploymentBasedImmigration.NFAPPolicyBrie f.Aug2011.pdf)

nishant2200

08-20-2011, 08:49 AM

Guys, the thumb rule mentioned by Q, Veni above, makes greater truth when economy is like current. With improvement n boom in economy, I would go more with 6 month movement (12k).

But then in later years, the demand per year itself maybe less, so 12k cud move further.

This of course doesnt take into account porting.

I also think there is increasing chatter about immigration changes needed, n as someone posted earlier, given the right breeding ground, it will happen, I think in the next 10 years.

Fingers crossed.

PlainSpeak

08-20-2011, 09:40 AM

- PERM labor stopped
- CIS relaxing of deportation of illegals
- White house pursing DREAM act

Could the above be signs of clearing of the existing EB backlog (EB1/EB2/EB3) ? for fresh intake of DREAM act applications ?

Sandeep2011

08-20-2011, 09:46 AM

The PWD is temporarily suspended only for PERM applications. You can file for H1b LCA. My company applied for my H1b extension LCA on 1st week of August and i got it and filled my H1b extension and waiting for approval..

I agree with mesan123. I am not too sure if my colleague filed with LCA or not. I wanted to let the forum know that H1B extensions are not impacted with unavailability of PWD, at least not for those folks who have approved PERM and 140.

nishant2200

08-20-2011, 09:56 AM

1. Was due to court case for H2
2. Election coming up, want to appease
3. Being pushed very heavily by hispanic groups, WH already on board since long, but cant get all to agree

In my opinion, nothing to do with EB.

Good brainstorming though!

- PERM labor stopped
- CIS relaxing of deportation of illegals
- White house pursing DREAM act

Could the above be signs of clearing of the existing EB backlog (EB1/EB2/EB3) ? for fresh intake of DREAM act applications ?

vizcard

08-20-2011, 01:00 PM

mesan,
If you look Q's post closely, ~23k include IC country quota.

As a thumb rule EB2I can expect to file for 485/GC in hand, 5 year from the PD.

That's the reason I had a PD of Aug 2008 = Summer 2013. Best case, its PD+4.5 yrs which makes is Winter 2013.

Its interesting timing for my professional career. Around that time, I'll have to make a choice about whether or not I want to pursue a partnership in my Firm (management consultant) or switch jobs to a regular company.

indiasunil

08-20-2011, 09:39 PM

Recently Few Companies like CTS/Qualcom applying for GC in EB1 category. Looks like there is a loophole in EB1, companies showing them as Multinational Managers. Its ridiculous. There are no. of guys having better/best experience & have been waiting in EB2/EB3. Is there anyway to escalate to USCIS ?

03May07

08-20-2011, 10:19 PM

Just an update on H1B extension - one of my colleagues filed for H1b extension on 10th Aug at VSC under premium processing, he received an email today from USCIS that his 129 (extension) has been approved. He was filing for extension beyond 6th year and already has an approved 140.

The PWD is temporarily suspended only for PERM applications. You can file for H1b LCA. My company applied for my H1b extension LCA on 1st week of August and i got it and filled my H1b extension and waiting for approval..

I agree with mesan123. I am not too sure if my colleague filed with LCA or not. I wanted to let the forum know that H1B extensions are not impacted with unavailability of PWD, at least not for those folks who have approved PERM and 140.

True. Upgraded my H1B to Premium after the disappointing sept. bulletin release. Got approved a week later for 3 yrs : EVC model : 9 + 3yr.extension

mesan123

08-20-2011, 10:23 PM

True...but this EBI case filling by this companies are happening from last quater of 2007. It is not something new...i feel USCIS also is aware of this(My personal View)......

Recently Few Companies like CTS/Qualcom applying for GC in EB1 category. Looks like there is a loophole in EB1, companies showing them as Multinational Managers. Its ridiculous. There are no. of guys having better/best experience & have been waiting in EB2/EB3. Is there anyway to escalate to USCIS ?

RMS_V13

08-21-2011, 08:49 AM

I do try to follow the thread(much better than other immi forums out there)..But most of your posts seem to suggest that the outlook is bleak for EB2 this coming year? Isn't Myurthy's thread contradicting your statements?

imechanix thanks. Murthy quote is kind of vague .... but nonetheless also contains something we have consistently maintained (in bold below).

qesehmk

08-21-2011, 09:24 AM

Two things I take care while I predict anything:

1) I try to stick to facts and avoid optimism or pessimism.
2) I never try to align myself with what others are saying. I try to align myself with Facts.

So I do not really know what Murthy is saying that is contradicting with me or what you think is pessimistic in what I am saying. Would be helpful if you clarify then only I can respond more intelligently. Besides, whether I come across as an optimist or pessimist is a function of one's own viewpoint too :) Sure you would agree w at that!

I do try to follow the thread(much better than other immi forums out there)..But most of your posts seem to suggest that the outlook is bleak for EB2 this coming year? Isn't Myurthy's thread contradicting your statements?

RMS_V13

08-21-2011, 09:55 AM

Two things I take care while I predict anything:

1) I try to stick to facts and avoid optimism or pessimism.
2) I never try to align myself with what others are saying. I try to align myself with Facts.

So I do not really know what Murthy is saying that is contradicting with me or what you think is pessimistic in what I am saying. Would be helpful if you clarify then only I can respond more intelligently. Besides, whether I come across as an optimist or pessimist is a function of one's own viewpoint too :) Sure you would agree w at that!

Right..Should have been clearer..
A lot of your posts seem to suggest that 2011 may not be good in terms of movement for EB2 I.
Murthy.com says there will be 'noticable movement' for EB2 I this coming year..

The optimist in me wants to believe the latter statement

qesehmk

08-21-2011, 10:03 AM

I have maintained that the movement will be anywhere between Oct 2007 - Apr 2008 for full year in 2012. I have also said that because of the backlog coming to an end, the dates will move much sooner than usual May timeline.

Again ... that is just based on what I know today, will change over time. One can see that optimistic or pessimistic. And I wouldn't have a problem with somebodys viewpoint.

Right..Should have been clearer..
A lot of your posts seem to suggest that 2011 may not be good in terms of movement for EB2 I.
Murthy.com says there will be 'noticable movement' for EB2 I this coming year..

The optimist in me wants to believe the latter statement

Gclongwait

08-21-2011, 10:12 AM

I do try to follow the thread(much better than other immi forums out there)..But most of your posts seem to suggest that the outlook is bleak for EB2 this coming year? Isn't Myurthy's thread contradicting your statements?

There is nothing new in this. When the applications are close to running out they have to move the dates fwd. The only conclusions that I can draw are

1. If lawyers are saying BTM rather than small movements or current then maybe they have some inside info on this.
2. This is another nail in the coffin of the "current" theory. That was always unlikely now even less.

Also nothing new in the timing. BTM has to happen this FY 2012 sometime and from the NVC fee receipts does look like it may hit June 2008. My guess would be sometime in Jan Feb 2012.

dec2007

08-21-2011, 11:17 AM

I have maintained that the movement will be anywhere between Oct 2007 - Apr 2007 for full year in 2012. I have also said that because of the backlog coming to an end, the dates will move much sooner than usual May timeline.

Again ... that is just based on what I know today, will change over time. One can see that optimistic or pessimistic. And I wouldn't have a problem with somebodys viewpoint.

I'm sure you mean April 2008 not 2007, right? I'm hanging in there with PD of Dec 31st, 2007. In another year or 1.5 years from now, I might have to make a important career decision. waiting for my date....

qesehmk

08-21-2011, 11:59 AM

Oops .... corrected!!

I'm sure you mean April 2008 not 2007, right? I'm hanging in there with PD of Dec 31st, 2007. In another year or 1.5 years from now, I might have to make a important career decision. waiting for my date....

TeddyKoochu

08-22-2011, 09:19 AM

Here is a rule of thumb for me and I know others may disagree. But in general after vertical spillovers are cancelled, as far as EB2 is concerned 1 yr movement per year especially in this economy is very much possible.

The simple reason being - 1 Yr = approx 24K backlog.

EB5 usually would give 5-8K
EB2ROWMP - 2-10
EB1 - 0 - 10
EB2IC - 6K
------------
So the average case scenario is 23K. Pretty close to 1 Yr backlog. So for everybody - instead of trying to pessimistic or optimistic keep this rule of thumb in mind and then as we go ahead ... ask yourself which category is risk and accordingly what are your chances.

Being pessimistic is not a good strategy. I would rather be an optimist than a pessimist.

Q, this upcoming 1 year is probably the heaviest density seen yet. So approximating it to 24K maybe on the liberal side. IMHO there is 2.5K demand every month in this year from Apr 2007 to Apr 2008 for India + China EB2. Here Iam assuming 24K as the SOFAD not as backlog, 24K backlog reduction is ~ 30K SOFAD
.
Secondly porting is set to accelerate for sure as EB2-I dates are Mid Apr 2007 so every EB3 I/C virtually if they port are eligible for immediate 485 approval, so as soon as the labor + 140 + interfiling is complete these cases are eligible for almost an immediate approval. Also the gap between EB2 and EB3 India is higher so he sample space for those who can port and get GC immediately is much larger. 6K might represent the high end; however 4K represents the lower end.

- Assuming 8K as preadjudicated backlog is actually the best case scenario, let’s go with that.

- 4K PWMB till Aug 2007 is also a fair approximation.

- The range of backlog from Apr 2007 to 01-AUG-2007 is in the range of 16-18K.

- Now almost everyone across the board agrees that this year SOFAD of 30K represents the best ever or peak. The upcoming years SOFAD by most estimates maybe 24-25K.
- So the wiggle room ahead of 01-AUG-2007 say with 2kK SOFAD is 6-8K.
- This is only 3 months worth of movement so it makes the date at 01-OCT-2007 for actual GC issuance. I think Trackitt approvals in Q1 2012 will be a key indicator to monitor.
- The extra intake or gate opening is completely in the hypothetical domain they can be to a date much further. There are 2 key things to observe here, I140's are being processed very aggressively and in 2 quarters the backlog will be quite less, this comes at a critical time when the agencies will be estimating SOFAD, almost surely Q1 2010 may not yield any SOFAD for Q1 atleast. The other issue is the prevailing wage issue that is working in our favor right now, however unless this goes on for months it may not cause any significant impact, prevailing wage is one of the earlier steps of perm it takes 2-3 months after that. Any delays here will be largely neutralized by faster I140 process this will be a factor if it extends for say another 3-4 months.

druvraj

08-22-2011, 10:09 AM

Q, this upcoming 1 year is probably the heaviest density seen yet. So approximating it to 24K maybe on the liberal side. IMHO there is 2.5K demand every month in this year from Apr 2007 to Apr 2008 for India + China EB2. Here Iam assuming 24K as the SOFAD not as backlog, 24K backlog reduction is ~ 30K SOFAD
.
Secondly porting is set to accelerate for sure as EB2-I dates are Mid Apr 2007 so every EB3 I/C virtually if they port are eligible for immediate 485 approval, so as soon as the labor + 140 + interfiling is complete these cases are eligible for almost an immediate approval. Also the gap between EB2 and EB3 India is higher so he sample space for those who can port and get GC immediately is much larger. 6K might represent the high end; however 4K represents the lower end.

- Assuming 8K as preadjudicated backlog is actually the best case scenario, let’s go with that.

- 4K PWMB till Aug 2007 is also a fair approximation.

- The range of backlog from Apr 2007 to 01-AUG-2007 is in the range of 16-18K.

- Now almost everyone across the board agrees that this year SOFAD of 30K represents the best ever or peak. The upcoming years SOFAD by most estimates maybe 24-25K.
- So the wiggle room ahead of 01-AUG-2007 say with 2kK SOFAD is 6-8K.
- This is only 3 months worth of movement so it makes the date at 01-OCT-2007 for actual GC issuance. I think Trackitt approvals in Q1 2012 will be a key indicator to monitor.
- The extra intake or gate opening is completely in the hypothetical domain they can be to a date much further. There are 2 key things to observe here, I140's are being processed very aggressively and in 2 quarters the backlog will be quite less, this comes at a critical time when the agencies will be estimating SOFAD, almost surely Q1 2010 may not yield any SOFAD for Q1 atleast. The other issue is the prevailing wage issue that is working in our favor right now, however unless this goes on for months it may not cause any significant impact, prevailing wage is one of the earlier steps of perm it takes 2-3 months after that. Any delays here will be largely neutralized by faster I140 process this will be a factor if it extends for say another 3-4 months.

Teddy and Q your analysis has been great so far and hope it continues. What I want to bring to your attention is

1. Cases that are abandon due to person having left the country or simply upgraded their status. How many of these could there be? Remember the Karzian memo took effect this year. I am sure lot of PWMB might fall into this criteria. My guess for PWMB is only 2K.
2. Once we get to Aug 1 is there a way for USCIS and DOL to make sure all I140s are active? My answer is no and hence I feel like they might move the dates to find out actually how many I140s are active. I am not talking about GC assurance but of EADs.

Your comments please.

qesehmk

08-22-2011, 10:13 AM

Trackitt trend updated in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716

In summary the trend is a bit confusing when compared to the September-non-movement. We should be seeing much more EB1 EB2ROW approvals. But they are not there. The good news is - there shouldn't be any retrogression whatsoever. The other news (not necessarily bad one) is if EB1 EB2ROW don't show uptick in approvals then either EB3 should see some spillover (which I really doubt) or it means PWMB+Portings were higher than we thought they were. Or of course the third possibility of wasting visas (which again I doubt). Sometimes I wonder, by not moving dates has DoS/USCIS boxed itself in a bit of a tricky situation?

Spectator

08-22-2011, 10:24 AM

Trackitt trend updated in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716Q,

I think you need to re-upload the image in a larger size. It is too difficult to read.

I think I mentioned this earlier - Although your table says SOFAD, it is actually Spillover, since it does not include the 5.6k normal allocation. I know the text makes this clear.

TeddyKoochu

08-22-2011, 10:38 AM

Teddy and Q your analysis has been great so far and hope it continues. What I want to bring to your attention is

1. Cases that are abandon due to person having left the country or simply upgraded their status. How many of these could there be? Remember the Karzian memo took effect this year. I am sure lot of PWMB might fall into this criteria. My guess for PWMB is only 2K.
2. Once we get to Aug 1 is there a way for USCIS and DOL to make sure all I140s are active? My answer is no and hence I feel
like they might move the dates to find out actually how many I140s are active. I am not talking about GC assurance but of EADs.

Your comments please.

For the PWMB's 2K maybe a very low figure to assume, only a few may have left or may have upgraded to Eb1 or left. So probably 4K or say 3.5K is a good figure to stay with I agree that for EAD and 485 filing the dates will be further ahead to the date for actual GC issuance. It will be interesting to se how USCIS - DOS go about this and how much of buffer they want. If actual GC issuance date is 01-OCT-2007 then the intake may well be till the end of 2007. For most people EAD /AP is more important than actual GC especially true for those waiting just to file because of H1B is becoming difficult.

iamdeb

08-22-2011, 10:43 AM

As per Sep 2011 demand data EB2IC had backlog of 8,000. Since the date didn't advance I am assuming the backlog is still 8000. Now the EB2IC quota for 2012 is approx 5600 for EB2IC.So I guess only during the spillover quarter (starting May 2012) we can see the PD crossing Aug 2007.
Am i understanding it right?

Deb

qesehmk

08-22-2011, 11:02 AM

Teddy

I actually agree w a lot of things you say (i.e. rationale). What is not so much agreeable (and very little is debatable given the lack of data) is the magnitude of each of the component you quote.
PWMB - I am much more inclined to say is probaby 2-3K max.
Portings - 3K max

Also I think next year ROW will yield 2K more than this year since they seem to be clearing their backlog this year. Same with EB1 - the entire 14K or so we saw this year will NOT go away. We will continue to see 8K or so next year. And as a result overall SOFAD next year - I only see coming down by 4-5K. However the confidence level in anything at this point of time is so low ..... its not worth debating the differences.

Q, this upcoming 1 year is probably the heaviest density seen yet. So approximating it to 24K maybe on the liberal side. IMHO there is 2.5K demand every month in this year from Apr 2007 to Apr 2008 for India + China EB2. Here Iam assuming 24K as the SOFAD not as backlog, 24K backlog reduction is ~ 30K SOFAD
.
Secondly porting is set to accelerate for sure as EB2-I dates are Mid Apr 2007 so every EB3 I/C virtually if they port are eligible for immediate 485 approval, so as soon as the labor + 140 + interfiling is complete these cases are eligible for almost an immediate approval. Also the gap between EB2 and EB3 India is higher so he sample space for those who can port and get GC immediately is much larger. 6K might represent the high end; however 4K represents the lower end.

- Assuming 8K as preadjudicated backlog is actually the best case scenario, let’s go with that.

- 4K PWMB till Aug 2007 is also a fair approximation.

- The range of backlog from Apr 2007 to 01-AUG-2007 is in the range of 16-18K.

- Now almost everyone across the board agrees that this year SOFAD of 30K represents the best ever or peak. The upcoming years SOFAD by most estimates maybe 24-25K.
- So the wiggle room ahead of 01-AUG-2007 say with 2kK SOFAD is 6-8K.
- This is only 3 months worth of movement so it makes the date at 01-OCT-2007 for actual GC issuance. I think Trackitt approvals in Q1 2012 will be a key indicator to monitor.
- The extra intake or gate opening is completely in the hypothetical domain they can be to a date much further. There are 2 key things to observe here, I140's are being processed very aggressively and in 2 quarters the backlog will be quite less, this comes at a critical time when the agencies will be estimating SOFAD, almost surely Q1 2010 may not yield any SOFAD for Q1 atleast. The other issue is the prevailing wage issue that is working in our favor right now, however unless this goes on for months it may not cause any significant impact, prevailing wage is one of the earlier steps of perm it takes 2-3 months after that. Any delays here will be largely neutralized by faster I140 process this will be a factor if it extends for say another 3-4 months.

Teddy and Q your analysis has been great so far and hope it continues. What I want to bring to your attention is

1. Cases that are abandon due to person having left the country or simply upgraded their status. How many of these could there be? Remember the Karzian memo took effect this year. I am sure lot of PWMB might fall into this criteria. My guess for PWMB is only 2K.
2. Once we get to Aug 1 is there a way for USCIS and DOL to make sure all I140s are active? My answer is no and hence I feel like they might move the dates to find out actually how many I140s are active. I am not talking about GC assurance but of EADs.

Your comments please.
I do think #1 is a very possible scenario. But I think the magnitude of such cases will be low since people are resilient and will find any reason to hang on to their application.
As per #2, I believe (just a gut feel) that USCIS/DoS do have some mechanisms to ensure that employment/application is active. Even if they don't, I think they have all the capacity required to push through good number of applications in short amount of time to meet teh quota. Remember we are talking about EB which is 10% or less of their annual green card processing capacity. So they don't have to fine tune their numbers to n'th degree. They can with one stroke go forward and backward and get all the cases they need.

Q,

I think you need to re-upload the image in a larger size. It is too difficult to read.

I think I mentioned this earlier - Although your table says SOFAD, it is actually Spillover, since it does not include the 5.6k normal allocation. I know the text makes this clear.
Thanks spec.. yes it is not SOFAD. Corrected the size, but not sure if it is still any better. will keep trying..

qesehmk

08-22-2011, 12:14 PM

That is unfortunately so very correct.

As per Sep 2011 demand data EB2IC had backlog of 8,000. Since the date didn't advance I am assuming the backlog is still 8000. Now the EB2IC quota for 2012 is approx 5600 for EB2IC.So I guess only during the spillover quarter (starting May 2012) we can see the PD crossing Aug 2007.
Am i understanding it right?

Deb

Gclongwait

08-22-2011, 12:34 PM

Posted by TeddyKoochu
.
Secondly porting is set to accelerate for sure as EB2-I dates are Mid Apr 2007 so every EB3 I/C virtually if they port are eligible for immediate 485 approval, so as soon as the labor + 140 + interfiling is complete these cases are eligible for almost an immediate approval. Also the gap between EB2 and EB3 India is higher so he sample space for those who can port and get GC immediately is much larger. 6K might represent the high end; however 4K represents the lower end.

Teddy,
Agree with most things you said other than above. The assumption that people will port only when they see that their date is current in EB2 may not be right. Its been quite clear for atleast the last 3 years that EB3 is 5 years behind EB2 (minimum). I actually think porting will reduce over time since people who had to would already have.

Also assuming I am person A who has PD of April1 '07 EB3. If I see my date go current in Sep bulletin and decide that I should port to EB2, I willing to bet a sizable sum that Person A will not be able to port within FY 2012, forget before spillover starts. I dont know about desi consulting companies since I never worked for one but I have filed 2 labors and each time its taken me 10 mnths after I joined the company to get my labor filed, and this is after both the companies initiated the process pretty much within 2-3 months of me joining, so if I am someone who has to switch a job to port it should take well over a year.

qesehmk

08-22-2011, 12:42 PM

GCLongwait I agree w this. As long as economy is south this is going to be true.

I actually think porting will reduce over time since people who had to would already have.

pch053

08-22-2011, 12:49 PM

But some people can become eligible for porting with time, e.g. they do not have 5 years of progressive experience at this point of time but might gain that over time and becomes a candidate for porting 2 - 3 years down the line. Just a thought!

qesehmk

08-22-2011, 01:03 PM

Any EB3IC post EB2IC current date is not much of an impact today. Those with dates prior to EB2IC current date ie. 15 March 2007 in this case is what will impact EB2IC.

Most of them already qualify with 5 Yr rule given how much time has lapsed between 2007 and today. So those who could would already have done so. There will be some trickle in future too. But unless economy improves I just don't see how EB3 portings will stay flat to 2011 let alone increase.

p.s. - EB3 ROW on the other hand has totally changed tracks. Very few if any file EB3ROW. They are opting to go for EB2. Which is why EB2ROW was not the #1 contributor to SOFAD previous year or this year and I don't expect it to do so in 2012 as well.

But some people can become eligible for porting with time, e.g. they do not have 5 years of progressive experience at this point of time but might gain that over time and becomes a candidate for porting 2 - 3 years down the line. Just a thought!

superdesi2100

08-22-2011, 01:58 PM

Any EB3IC post EB2IC current date is not much of an impact today. Those with dates prior to EB2IC current date ie. 15 March 2007 in this case is what will impact EB2IC.

Most of them already qualify with 5 Yr rule given how much time has lapsed between 2007 and today. So those who could would already have done so. There will be some trickle in future too. But unless economy improves I just don't see how EB3 portings will stay flat to 2011 let alone increase.

p.s. - EB3 ROW on the other hand has totally changed tracks. Very few if any file EB3ROW. They are opting to go for EB2. Which is why EB2ROW was not the #1 contributor to SOFAD previous year or this year and I don't expect it to do so in 2012 as well.

Do you see a possibility of EB2 ROW becoming retrogressed? Correct me if I am wrong but it this happens, any spillover will first have to go to EB2 ROW due to 7% per country limit.

qesehmk

08-22-2011, 02:10 PM

That is going to be difficult given teh state of economy.
Do you see a possibility of EB2 ROW becoming retrogressed? Correct me if I am wrong but it this happens, any spillover will first have to go to EB2 ROW due to 7% per country limit.

Spectator

08-22-2011, 02:33 PM

Teddy & Q,

I've read your comments with interest. In many ways I think I have a view somewhere in the middle.

As far as SOFAD for FY2012 goes, I would see it somewhere in the range 20-25k.

Although the 12k EB1/EB2-non IC approvals we have heard about will reduce the backlog, it is only reducing it to the extent that it built up this year due to slower processing. Even then, the entire FY2011 created backlog for EB1 doesn't look like it will be eliminated. I don't think that is a big deal, since I don't see the backlog being released in FY2012 either.

The PERM figures for EB2-non IC suggest they can support at least the level of I-485 approvals to be seen this year, although I would like to see the Q3 FY2011 PERM figures.

Porting is a terribly difficult subject. When Porting started in earnest, there were several years worth of people to port and we have seen a lot from 2004 onwards. As time goes by, the % left that cannot port for various reasons increases. The forward movement of the Cut Off Dates for EB2-IC is also a limit to those that count towards visas used.

I guess we will get some idea of this year's level when DOS release the Report of the Visa Office. Until then, I will stick to a figure at the lower end of about 4k to cover all unknowns.

In my own figures, I have allowed a fairly generous 32% for 2007 PERM certifications that never make it to I-485 approvals due to I-140 denial, drop outs etc and a 60:40 split for EB2:EB3. It will be a personal view whether people think this is too much or not enough.

On that basis, the following table shows the Cut Off Dates that would be reached for a minimum of 20k SOFAD and a maximum of 25k for various levels of Porting.

------------------- 20k SOFAD ------ 25k SOFAD

3k Porting ------- 1/8 Nov 07 ------ 15 Jan 08

4k Porting ----- 15/22 Oct 07 ----- 1/8 Jan 08

5k Porting ------- 1/8 Oct 07 --- 15/22 Dec 07

6k Porting ----- 15/22 Sep 07 ----- 1/8 Dec 07

If DOS want to create a buffer then 1-2 months extra might be possible.

Only the more optimistic scenarios reach 2008, so I would say sometime in Q4 2007 seems most likely, based on the information we have to date.

TeddyKoochu

08-22-2011, 02:42 PM

Teddy,
Agree with most things you said other than above. The assumption that people will port only when they see that their date is current in EB2 may not be right. Its been quite clear for atleast the last 3 years that EB3 is 5 years behind EB2 (minimum). I actually think porting will reduce over time since people who had to would already have.

Also assuming I am person A who has PD of April1 '07 EB3. If I see my date go current in Sep bulletin and decide that I should port to EB2, I willing to bet a sizable sum that Person A will not be able to port within FY 2012, forget before spillover starts. I dont know about desi consulting companies since I never worked for one but I have filed 2 labors and each time its taken me 10 mnths after I joined the company to get my labor filed, and this is after both the companies initiated the process pretty much within 2-3 months of me joining, so if I am someone who has to switch a job to port it should take well over a year.

Actually I intended to say about effective porting, i.e. a person who ports when his date is current. Now since the dates for EB2-I are so close virtually every porting case is effective. I agree with you that the gap between EB2 and EB3 has remained in the range of 4-5 years over the last 2 years so nothing significant has changed in that regard. Many people have been trying to port and after 2010 it became clearer that porting is the way out for all later EB3 PD's. The estimates for porting have been quite varied from 3-6K and EB3 backlog is in the 55K - 60K range. Following people will port a) People who have completed 5 years of experience post bachelors, in fact everyone who was able to file in the Jul 2007 fiasco in Eb3 has completed 5 years since then b) Many people are in the process of doing masters in the last 2 years c) Many people are trying to convince the current employers to file another EB2 application d) Many people are trying to change employers or have already made the change and are trying to port. I think the bottom-line is that this number may plateau only it will not come down anytime soon. So the range of 3-6K will stay for a couple of years.

nishant2200

08-22-2011, 03:03 PM

Per Dashboard, 29,535 I-140s now pending nationally. Seems to have reduced. We are now below the 30k.

The trend chart is showing a sharp decline, almost at same slope level as the increase in beginning of the year.

nishant2200

08-22-2011, 03:09 PM

Processing times update on August 17th.

Texas service center is stuck in Oct-Sep 2010 for 140, while Nebraska is saying 4 months for all 140s.

Per dashboard, 2/3 rd almost of all pending 140 is with Texas, while 1/3rd almost is with Nebraska.

qesehmk

08-22-2011, 03:18 PM

Per dashboard, 2/3 rd almost of all pending 140 is with Texas, while 1/3rd almost is with Nebraska.
Is it indicative of their inefficiency or could it be simply because Texas has been asked to handle 2/3rd volume?

nishant2200

08-22-2011, 03:41 PM

Yes, it will be interesting to see the activity of July-Aug-Sep, later on in the year. That would indicate if really they utilized the period for backlog reduction, and the supposed 12k hidden demand materialization was not a cry wolf situation.

Texas I see has, in May-June, 2 months, has had net reduction of 6k 140s from pending status.

They have almost 21k with them. Combined with the fact that PERM is down due to the H2 mess, and no new much influx of EB2 I/C PWMB 140/485s, if they continue this kind of trend, they could very well play catch up with Nebraska around Q2 FY 2012. USCIS may also choose to offload more new 140 incoming to Nebraska to help Texas. Nebraska already showing a net increase instead of a net decrease. Inspite of that, it just might be enough for Nebraska to have a claim of 4 months for processing time for 140.

This means, as Teddy said above, during the crucial Quarters of FY 2012 wherein agencies extrapolate SO, there would be bad indications, which may not necessarily be entirely truth indicative, may also be false positives. But this may lead to starting SO season late, then as compared to the early of May this year.

Is it indicative of their inefficiency or could it be simply because Texas has been asked to handle 2/3rd volume?

nishant2200

08-22-2011, 03:44 PM

Q, I believe the porting + PWMB is higher, it may not be the only reason, but it sure must be more than the total 3k assumed.

Long back I asked if it's possible for DOS to issue a correction to a visa bulletin, when they realized they made a miscalculation. They did so in July 2007 fiasco, but people balked and had to take it back :)

Trackitt trend updated in http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716

In summary the trend is a bit confusing when compared to the September-non-movement. We should be seeing much more EB1 EB2ROW approvals. But they are not there. The good news is - there shouldn't be any retrogression whatsoever. The other news (not necessarily bad one) is if EB1 EB2ROW don't show uptick in approvals then either EB3 should see some spillover (which I really doubt) or it means PWMB+Portings were higher than we thought they were. Or of course the third possibility of wasting visas (which again I doubt). Sometimes I wonder, by not moving dates has DoS/USCIS boxed itself in a bit of a tricky situation?

qesehmk

08-22-2011, 04:04 PM

It truly was an extraordinary event. Of course we wish it happened this time too. But its hoping against hope.
Long back I asked if it's possible for DOS to issue a correction to a visa bulletin, when they realized they made a miscalculation. They did so in July 2007 fiasco, but people balked and had to take it back :)

Spectator

08-22-2011, 04:16 PM

veni001

08-22-2011, 05:34 PM

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/quarterlydata.cfm

Certified/Expired

Q1 - 18,288
Q2 - 16,873
Q3 - 12,744

Total - 47,905

Doesn't quite stack up with the 63% increase in applications, unless the backlog is increasing.

Spec,
Good, Finally Q3 PERM data is out!

June PERM Fact Sheet (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf) was referring increase in receipts and also 22,200 active PERM cases pending as of 05/31/2011.

Spectator

08-22-2011, 05:56 PM

Spec,
Good, Finally Q3 PERM data is out!

June PERM Fact Sheet (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf) was referring increase in receipts and also 22,200 active PERM cases pending as of 05/31/2011.Veni,

I know, but if there are that many extra receipts, we might expect to see higher approvals as well, since the processing time isn't that slow. We don't, so it is a small mystery. The FY2010 approvals for the same period were 55.1k.

The appropriate FACTS & DATA posts have been updated.

veni001

08-22-2011, 09:37 PM

Veni,

I know, but if there are that many extra receipts, we might expect to see higher approvals as well, since the processing time isn't that slow. We don't, so it is a small mystery. The FY2010 approvals for the same period were 55.1k.

The appropriate FACTS & DATA posts have been updated.

Spec,
Looking at Q1,Q2 & Q3 PERM data it is obvious that PERM processing got slowed down from Q1 to Q2 to Q3.

FY2011-Q1:
Certified = 18,288
Denied/Withdrawn = 4,431
Total processed = 22,719

FY2011-Q2:
Certified = 16,873
Denied/Withdrawn = 3,639
Total processed = 20,512

FY2011-Q3:
Certified = 12,744
Denied/Withdrawn = 3,484
Total processed = 16,228

Applications Processed:
Q2 compared to Q1 = 10% less
Q3 compared to Q2 = 21% less
Q3 compared to Q1 = 28.5% less

Denied/Withdrawn (% of completions):
Q1 = 19.5%
Q2 = 17.7%
Q3 = 21.4%
Q1-Q3 = 19.4%

Monthly Completions FY2011(Q1-Q3):
Highest processed in a month = December 2010 = 10,199
Lowest processed in a month = April 2011 = 3,685

From June PERM Factsheet (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf) there are 22,200 active PERM applications pending as of 05/31/2011

June 2011 completions = 6,490, if we assume same amount of receipts for June'11 means 22K PERM pending as of 06/30/2011.

Also based on the processing stastitics from the Fact Sheet (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf) ~75% of these pending cases are from FY 2011 only!

ssvp22

08-23-2011, 08:32 AM

....Also based on the processing stastitics from the Fact Sheet (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf) ~75% of these pending cases are from FY 2011 only!
Veni, can you please explain the impact of these numbers.

veni001

08-23-2011, 09:50 AM

Veni, can you please explain the impact of these numbers.

ssvp22,

Any backlog build-up (140 or PERM) is not good for SOFAD in the long run!

Historically ROW-M-P is averaging about 50-60% of PERM Certifications.

Spec and Q pointed that most of the ROW are applying in EB2 post July 2007.

So, if and when this backlog is cleared will use-up significant VISA numbers, which means less spillover from ROW!

Spectator

08-23-2011, 11:10 AM

veni001

08-23-2011, 11:28 AM

Veni,

Let's be clear, the only problem I had was with the statement *Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010.

Having crunched the numbers further, that does appear to be the case. I had made an error in the data selection before.

It doesn't bode well for SOFAD in the future. Even if ROW-M-P % decreases somewhat (on the basis that a lot of extra numbers may be due to EB3-EB2-I porting), that would still be a net increase in numbers.

Spec,
You are correct, I see somewhat decrease in ROW-M-P numbers (could be the result of backlog) for FY2011(Q1-Q3), when compared to past few years trend.

On porting numbers (EB3-->EB2I) i would stick to your assumptions, rather than diving into deep.

P.S: I have noticed similar decrease in CHINA numbers also.

qesehmk

08-23-2011, 11:34 AM

Spec and Veni

I dont' understand why you are concerned about future SPILLOVER from ROWMP?
Looking at the numbers in FACTS and data, I see 2011 PERM approvals for ROWMP tracking to full year 30% down. So everything else remaining same (denial withdrawal rates at various stages) shouldn't ROWMP next year use 30% less quota for ROWMP EB2?

Veni,

Let's be clear, the only problem I had was with the statement *Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010.

Having crunched the numbers further, that does appear to be the case. I had made an error in the data selection before.

It doesn't bode well for SOFAD in the future. Even if ROW-M-P % decreases somewhat (on the basis that a lot of extra numbers may be due to EB3-EB2-I porting), that would still be a net increase in numbers.

veni001

08-23-2011, 01:01 PM

Spec and Veni

I dont' understand why you are concerned about future SPILLOVER from ROWMP?
Looking at the numbers in FACTS and data, I see 2011 PERM approvals for ROWMP tracking to full year 30% down. So everything else remaining same (denial withdrawal rates at various stages) shouldn't ROWMP next year use 30% less quota for ROWMP EB2?

Q,
That is true on the PERM certifications, and it is clear that the decrease is due to the back-log buildup.

Here are the headwinds for spillover from ROW-M-P for FY2012

1. Significant 140 back-log, not sure how much will be cleared by FY2011.
2. Significant(~22K) PERM backlog (even certified in Q4 may not get VISA from FY2011 numbers)

If we assume the current rate of ROW-M-P demand(PERM) continue & also all current PERM backlog(22K- all countries) will be cleared by Q1/Q2 - 2012 then, it will bring an additional 13.5K EB2ROW-M-P 485 into the pipeline.

If I start ROW-M-P 485 backlog for FY2012 similar to this year, add next year demand(three quarters) + PERM backlog reduction then, the picture is not pretty for SOFAD.

ssvp22

08-23-2011, 03:17 PM

sandeep

both are one and the same things. VO and USCIS need to work together and its a good thing. Increases predictability of the system.

on another note - I am concerned (please see the trackitt predictions thread) about EB1 and EB2ROW not picking up. If they can't use them for EB1 and EB2ROW then the it would be good if VO issues an amendment to the bulletin.
Can you please give link to trackitt predictions thread

Spectator

08-23-2011, 03:35 PM

on another note - I am concerned (please see the trackitt predictions thread) about EB1 and EB2ROW not picking up. If they can't use them for EB1 and EB2ROW then the it would be good if VO issues an amendment to the bulletin.Q,

I don't see why you are concerned. Based on the daily approvals http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010 :

EB1 appears to be heading for around 27k approvals.

EB2-ROW appears to be heading for around 25.5k approvals and EB2-MP for around 3-3.5k approvals.

That gives (40-27) + (34.4-29) = 18.4k spillover.

Add on EB2-IC allocation of 5.6k gives 24k and a further 6-8k from EB5 gives total SOFAD of 30-32k.

Given the amount needed is 26k + Porting etc (4-6k) that appears to be bang on.

Spectator

08-23-2011, 03:37 PM

Can you please give link to trackitt predictions threadssvp22,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections

qesehmk

08-23-2011, 03:46 PM

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716

Can you please give link to trackitt predictions thread

The lower end of projection is also 1 month off (i.e. measured by backlog). But of course that 1 month could ultimately prove to be change. But its the fact that lower end also is off makes me concerned.

p.s. - Last year Sep was not such a good month for EB1 and EB2ROW. If they continue their rate then they will consume the SOFAD otherwise wouldve been avlbl.

Q,

I don't see why you are concerned. Based on the daily approvals http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010 :

EB1 appears to be heading for around 27k approvals.

EB2-ROW appears to be heading for around 25.5k approvals and EB2-MP for around 3-3.5k approvals.

That gives (40-27) + (34.4-29) = 18.4k spillover.

Add on EB2-IC allocation of 5.6k gives 24k and a further 6-8k from EB5 gives total SOFAD of 30-32k.

Given the amount needed is 26k + Porting etc (4-6k) that appears to be bang on.

Spectator

08-23-2011, 03:54 PM

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716

The lower end of projection is also 1 month off (i.e. measured by backlog). But of course that 1 month could ultimately prove to be change. But its the fact that lower end also is off makes me concerned.

p.s. - Last year Sep was not such a good month for EB1 and EB2ROW. If they continue their rate then they will consume the SOFAD otherwise wouldve been avlbl.Q,

If I thought normality was going to be followed, I would agree with you. In fact, it was an assumption I held on to for a long time, assuming more SOFAD was going to be available.

CO's comments and the fact that the extra demand was found so late, pretty much guarantees the pattern will not follow that of previous years.

It does rely on USCIS actually processing them, which is always a worry.

I think there is more a problem of potentially having too many EB1/EB2-ROW cases that could be approved. Had CO known about that before setting the August VB, I am not sure he would have moved it so far. I can see some (probably EB1) approvals being delayed into October.

TeddyKoochu

08-23-2011, 04:25 PM

Q /Spec / Veni & All Friends,
I did a simple query on Trackitt; the trend shows that EB2 ROW approvals are actually accelerating and this year EB2 ROW approvals will actually surpass last year if the accelerating trend continues or come very close.
Country of Chargeability = ROW.
I485 Status = Approved
Category= EB2.
Now using approval and denial date ranges for last year and this year the figures can be obtained.
11 Months of FY 2010 - 496
11 Months of FY 2011 - 475 (We still have a few days to go in Aug 2011).
Over the entire year this trend never crossed the 90% ratio this is now at 95% already completely discounting the few days that we have in Aug. This ratio has always been less than 90% in fact at the beginning of the year it was just at 66%. Now Aug 2010 has 46 approvals so far while Aug 2011 has 37 approvals, since there is a delay in posting approvals and some days still left, the approvals in 2011 may well surpass 2010 for the month of Aug. We all know if ROW usage in 2011 matches 2010 then 2011 SOFAD from ROW will be lesser because of the lower cap minus FB. Now the real question is what proportion of I140 surge will be approved in 2011 itself, the higher the better for the upcoming years SOFAD. If its 50-50 then the first quarter of 2012 will generate virtually no SOFAD from EB2 ROW.

qesehmk

08-23-2011, 04:33 PM

Teddy You are right. ROW this year was not the main story. It was really EB1.

Q /Spec / Veni & All Friends,
I did a simple query on Trackitt; the trend shows that EB2 ROW approvals are actually accelerating and this year EB2 ROW approvals will actually surpass last year if the accelerating trend continues or come very close.
Country of Chargeability = ROW.
I485 Status = Approved
Category= EB2.
Now using approval and denial date ranges for last year and this year the figures can be obtained.
11 Months of FY 2010 - 496
11 Months of FY 2011 - 475 (We still have a few days to go in Aug 2011).
Over the entire year this trend never crossed the 90% ratio this is now at 95% already completely discounting the few days that we have in Aug. This ratio has always been less than 90% in fact at the beginning of the year it was just at 66%. Now Aug 2010 has 46 approvals so far while Aug 2011 has 37 approvals, since there is a delay in posting approvals and some days still left, the approvals in 2011 may well surpass 2010 for the month of Aug. We all know if ROW usage in 2011 matches 2010 then 2011 SOFAD from ROW will be lesser because of the lower cap minus FB. Now the real question is what proportion of I140 surge will be approved in 2011 itself, the higher the better for the upcoming years SOFAD. If its 50-50 then the first quarter of 2012 will generate virtually no SOFAD from EB2 ROW.

veni001

08-23-2011, 08:03 PM

Q,

I don't see why you are concerned. Based on the daily approvals http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010 :

EB1 appears to be heading for around 27k approvals.

EB2-ROW appears to be heading for around 25.5k approvals and EB2-MP for around 3-3.5k approvals.

That gives (40-27) + (34.4-29) = 18.4k spillover.

Add on EB2-IC allocation of 5.6k gives 24k and a further 6-8k from EB5 gives total SOFAD of 30-32k.

Given the amount needed is 26k + Porting etc (4-6k) that appears to be bang on.

Q /Spec / Veni & All Friends,
I did a simple query on Trackitt; the trend shows that EB2 ROW approvals are actually accelerating and this year EB2 ROW approvals will actually surpass last year if the accelerating trend continues or come very close.
Country of Chargeability = ROW.
I485 Status = Approved
Category= EB2.
Now using approval and denial date ranges for last year and this year the figures can be obtained.
11 Months of FY 2010 - 496
11 Months of FY 2011 - 475 (We still have a few days to go in Aug 2011).
Over the entire year this trend never crossed the 90% ratio this is now at 95% already completely discounting the few days that we have in Aug. This ratio has always been less than 90% in fact at the beginning of the year it was just at 66%. Now Aug 2010 has 46 approvals so far while Aug 2011 has 37 approvals, since there is a delay in posting approvals and some days still left, the approvals in 2011 may well surpass 2010 for the month of Aug. We all know if ROW usage in 2011 matches 2010 then 2011 SOFAD from ROW will be lesser because of the lower cap minus FB. Now the real question is what proportion of I140 surge will be approved in 2011 itself, the higher the better for the upcoming years SOFAD. If its 50-50 then the first quarter of 2012 will generate virtually no SOFAD from EB2 ROW.

Teddy You are right. ROW this year was not the main story. It was really EB1.

Agree, Spec's SOFAD calculation looks close to the actual for FY2011!

veni001

08-24-2011, 01:55 PM

Q,
That is true on the PERM certifications, and it is clear that the decrease is due to the back-log buildup.

Here are the headwinds for spillover from ROW-M-P for FY2012

1. Significant 140 back-log, not sure how much will be cleared by FY2011.
2. Significant(~22K) PERM backlog (even certified in Q4 may not get VISA from FY2011 numbers)

If we assume the current rate of ROW-M-P demand(PERM) continue & also all current PERM backlog(22K- all countries) will be cleared by Q1/Q2 - 2012 then, it will bring an additional 13.5K EB2ROW-M-P 485 into the pipeline.

If I start ROW-M-P 485 backlog for FY2012 similar to this year, add next year demand(three quarters) + PERM backlog reduction then, the picture is not pretty for SOFAD.

Q,
Another point to note is 72% of the ROW-M-P PERM Certifications from FY2011(Q1-Q3) are with PD2010 or before.

qblogfan

08-26-2011, 03:16 PM

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/all-form-types-performance-data-2011-june.pdf

From this PDF, totally 82k visas were used in the first three quarters.

Based on this data, we should have 58k visas for the last quarter.

Why our PD stayed the same in the last month? It doesn't make any sense. In July and August our EB2 C&I consumption is only 10-15k based on demand data. That means they have to approve more than 40k EB1&EB2 ROW in the last quarter. I think they will waste some visas in this year.

Updated as of 08/22/11 (http://icert.doleta.gov/)

Analyst Reviews - May 2011
Audits - December2010
Reconsideration Requests to the CO - January 2009
Gov't Error Reconsiderations - Current

Getting ready for another wave of backlog reduction!

veni001

08-26-2011, 04:24 PM

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Static_files/all-form-types-performance-data-2011-june.pdf

From this PDF, totally 82k visas were used in the first three quarters.

Based on this data, we should have 58k visas for the last quarter.

Why our PD stayed the same in the last month? It doesn't make any sense. In July and August our EB2 C&I consumption is only 10-15k based on demand data. That means they have to approve more than 40k EB1&EB2 ROW in the last quarter. I think they will waste some visas in this year.

qblogfan,
Remember USCIS numbers represent only AOS (485), we have to add CP to ~82K.

FY2010 CP(EB1-5) = ~12.5K, If we take same CP number for this year means only ~45k is available to USCIS for Q4.

Assuming EB2IC will be using 15 -18K in Q4, leaves about 27-30k for the rest (EB1,EB2ROW, EB3All, EB4 and EB5).

qblogfan

08-26-2011, 04:26 PM

Thanks for your explanation. It makes perfect sense now.

I think 27k-30k is reasonable.

qblogfan,
Remember 485 numbers only for AOS, we have to add CP to ~82K.

FY2010 CP(EB1-5) = ~12.5K, If we take same CP for this year means only ~45k is available to USCIS for Q4.

Assuming EB2IC will usd 15 -18K leaves about 27-30k for rest (EB1,EB2ROW, EB3All, EB4 and EB5)

veni001

08-26-2011, 04:57 PM

Thanks for your explanation. It makes perfect sense now.

I think 27k-30k is reasonable.

qblogfan,

Not only that let's look at 140 data

FY2011:I140 Data

Q1-Q2:
Completions = 35,331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (12.77%)

Q3:
Completions = 26,838
Approvals = 24,757
Denials = 2,081 (7.75%)

Q1-Q3:
Completions = 62,169
Approvals = 55,577
Denials = 6,592 (10.60%)

Looking at Q3 - 140 approvals are almost doubled and the denial ratio dropped significantly, means more EB2ROW-M-P(485) into the pipeline for Q4.

qblogfan

08-26-2011, 05:22 PM

wow! your further analysis makes 100% sense now!

The Q3 140 number is the key for the Q4 VB.

I think in Q1-Q3 the EB1 cases were not ready for approval because of the memo and once they opened the 140 gate in Q3, a large number of EB2ROW and EB1 are running into the system to block the Q4 pipeline.

The large number of 140 pending cases make FY 2012 very scary! I think SOFAD will drop big time in FY 2012.

qblogfan,

Not only that let's look at 140 data

FY2011:I140 Data

Q1-Q2:
Completions = 35,331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (12.77%)

Q3:
Completions = 26,838
Approvals = 24,757
Denials = 2,081 (7.75%)

Q1-Q3:
Completions = 62,169
Approvals = 55,577
Denials = 6,592 (10.60%)

Looking at Q3 - 140 approvals are almost doubled and the denial ratio dropped significantly, means more EB2ROW-M-P(485) into the pipeline for Q4.

nishant2200

08-27-2011, 10:32 AM

ni hao my friend. Not sure about the big time in there. Let's see at least first few months before thinking that. Hope again.

For china, it shud be quite better movement. Had posted earlier on this.

wow! your further analysis makes 100% sense now!

The Q3 140 number is the key for the Q4 VB.

I think in Q1-Q3 the EB1 cases were not ready for approval because of the memo and once they opened the 140 gate in Q3, a large number of EB2ROW and EB1 are running into the system to block the Q4 pipeline.

The large number of 140 pending cases make FY 2012 very scary! I think SOFAD will drop big time in FY 2012.

veni001

08-27-2011, 10:49 AM

nishant2200

08-27-2011, 11:58 AM

Agree, starting Oct bulletin, EB2C should see at least 2-3 weeks forward movement until FY2012 spillover season start.

Veni, now, I also think that normal movement of EB2C will bring them close to the tipping point of August 2007 around the start of SO season. This brings an interesting puzzle. The SO visas are to be given strictly in order of PD. So the BTM for intake for EB2C, would that also have to be con-joined to EB2I. In other words, could the need to have inventory for EB2C also benefit EB2I, in both timing and the temporary date movement.

Spectator

08-27-2011, 01:29 PM

Veni, now, I also think that normal movement of EB2C will bring them close to the tipping point of August 2007 around the start of SO season. This brings an interesting puzzle. The SO visas are to be given strictly in order of PD. So the BTM for intake for EB2C, would that also have to be con-joined to EB2I. In other words, could the need to have inventory for EB2C also benefit EB2I, in both timing and the temporary date movement.Nishant,

I am not sure why it should have any effect.

At the beginning of FY2012, EB2-C have at least 3,200 cases outstanding, with more PWMB to become qualified as the months and dates progress.

That is more than the initial allocation of 2,803 available for the whole year.

Until the end of the third quarter, DOS cannot allocate more than 81% of total visas anyway (54% by end of Q2). Even if they were to allocate the full 2,803 available to EB2-C, they will not reach the tipping point.

Since EB1 and EB2-non IC demand seems quite strong going into FY2012, DOS may well be constrained how quickly they can use more than the 250ish visas per month allowed to each of EB2-C and EB2-I and stay within the 27% per quarter limit. At that rate, to reach the end of June 2007 for EB2-C would require 6.5 months worth and July 2007 needs the same again.

If usage of visas is low in other Categories, at some point DOS may be able to announce spare visas available to EB2-IC, as they did in the May VB in FY2011.

That seems relatively more unlikely in FY2012 at the same level of numbers (12k) as seen in FY2011. That 12k allowed a further 9.7k (81% of 12k) to be allocated to EB2 in May/June 2011, of which around 9k seems to be used.

In FY2011, DOS stayed completely within the law in starting SO season early IMO. I think it is more difficult for FY2012.

Either they have to ignore the law, or the numbers seen in part of Q3 will be much lower, or SO will not start until July 2012. it remains to be seen which one will happen.

I don't think EB2-C progress will be a factor at all.

veni001

08-27-2011, 04:49 PM

Nishant,

I am not sure why it should have any effect.

At the beginning of FY2012, EB2-C have at least 3,200 cases outstanding, with more PWMB to become qualified as the months and dates progress.

That is more than the initial allocation of 2,803 available for the whole year.

Until the end of the third quarter, DOS cannot allocate more than 81% of total visas anyway (54% by end of Q2). Even if they were to allocate the full 2,803 available to EB2-C, they will not reach the tipping point.

Since EB1 and EB2-non IC demand seems quite strong going into FY2012, DOS may well be constrained how quickly they can use more than the 250ish visas per month allowed to each of EB2-C and EB2-I and stay within the 27% per quarter limit. At that rate, to reach the end of June 2007 for EB2-C would require 6.5 months worth and July 2007 needs the same again.

If usage of visas is low in other Categories, at some point DOS may be able to announce spare visas available to EB2-IC, as they did in the May VB in FY2011.

That seems relatively more unlikely in FY2012 at the same level of numbers (12k) as seen in FY2011. That 12k allowed a further 9.7k (81% of 12k) to be allocated to EB2 in May/June 2011, of which around 9k seems to be used.

In FY2011, DOS stayed completely within the law in starting SO season early IMO. I think it is more difficult for FY2012.

Either they have to ignore the law, or the numbers seen in part of Q3 will be much lower, or SO will not start until July 2012. it remains to be seen which one will happen.

I don't think EB2-C progress will be a factor at all.

Spec,
I am with you, unless USCIS comes up with "testing the waters" concept, it is very unlikely to see any forward movement for EB2I until Q3 of FY2012!

veni001

08-27-2011, 08:50 PM

EB2 - South Korea has been using significant VISAs from past few years.

FY2011(Q1-Q3) saw decrease in PERM completions and also increase in denial rate.

South Korea: PERM Data:

FY2010:
Completions = 5,301
Approved = 4,610
Denied/Withdrawn = 691 (13.04%)

FY2011(Q1-Q3):
Completions = 3,360 (~15.5% decrease)
Approved = 2,632
Denied/Withdrawn = 728 (21.67%)

qesehmk

08-27-2011, 11:04 PM

Spec
Very well said. I agree w you. The dates in 2011 are so cleverly crafted that USCIS has eliminated a lot of backlog but at the same time kept enough to ensure they have discretion to make any further movement. EB2C has just enough backlog that puts them in exactly same fate as EB2I in terms of any SFM or BTM.

Nishant,

I am not sure why it should have any effect.

At the beginning of FY2012, EB2-C have at least 3,200 cases outstanding, with more PWMB to become qualified as the months and dates progress.

That is more than the initial allocation of 2,803 available for the whole year.

Until the end of the third quarter, DOS cannot allocate more than 81% of total visas anyway (54% by end of Q2). Even if they were to allocate the full 2,803 available to EB2-C, they will not reach the tipping point.

Since EB1 and EB2-non IC demand seems quite strong going into FY2012, DOS may well be constrained how quickly they can use more than the 250ish visas per month allowed to each of EB2-C and EB2-I and stay within the 27% per quarter limit. At that rate, to reach the end of June 2007 for EB2-C would require 6.5 months worth and July 2007 needs the same again.

If usage of visas is low in other Categories, at some point DOS may be able to announce spare visas available to EB2-IC, as they did in the May VB in FY2011.

That seems relatively more unlikely in FY2012 at the same level of numbers (12k) as seen in FY2011. That 12k allowed a further 9.7k (81% of 12k) to be allocated to EB2 in May/June 2011, of which around 9k seems to be used.

In FY2011, DOS stayed completely within the law in starting SO season early IMO. I think it is more difficult for FY2012.

Either they have to ignore the law, or the numbers seen in part of Q3 will be much lower, or SO will not start until July 2012. it remains to be seen which one will happen.

I don't think EB2-C progress will be a factor at all.

qesehmk

08-28-2011, 08:00 PM

My understanding is that, as long as renewal is filed, she is in status even if the decision goes beyond her H1 expiry date. (I do think that she should be approved before that though). If a -ve decision comes in (which I doubt) she would be out of status from H1 perspective. But she can enjoy dependent status using her husband's H1.

I am not quite confident about transition from H1 to H4 period and being out of status there. But I think she can change her status from H1 to H4 without having to go to India. Visa is only an entry mechanism. Status can be obtained without getting a visa.

But I am not sure what window for conversion from H1 to H4 keeps her in status all the time.

Q & other Guru's,

I have a question and this is outside of the forum topic. One of my collegaue has a valid H1 till Sept 30, 2011. Despite pushing for renewal since June, her employer recently took up her case. They filed her LCA on Aug 24th and are planning premium processing for H1 renewal. What are her chances of getting approval before Sept 30, 2011? If she gets rejected (God forbid) and files I-539 (her Husband has valid H1 till Feb 2012) and does not hear back before Sept 30.. Is she out of status? Does she have to leave the country before H1 expires and get visa from home country? Please advice as she is not able to get a hold of her company lawyer.

nishant2200

08-29-2011, 03:34 PM

Spec, this puts to rest another theory in my mind.

Thanks a lot for the detailed reply.

Now about another theory which is breeding in my mind.

Now about the sentence about: "Either they have to ignore the law, or the numbers seen in part of Q3 will be much lower, or SO will not start until July 2012. it remains to be seen which one will happen."

In July 2007 fiasco period, I remember reading post analysis somewhere, where in the Ombudsman had worked out a deal with USCIS and DOS that all applicants with PD July 2007 and later will not be given green cards, and shall be only used to build up demand by USCIS.

I frankly see no way out for USCIS/DOS but to "ignore the law" and make a meaningful movement, sometime at least 6 months before the FY 2012 ends, and that movement also has to have a intake of a buffer period of 1 or 2 months also.

Now would this be called "ignoring the law", or rightfully and honestly, specifying the reason why it's being done, add a disclaimer just like they did in July 2007 period, something on the lines that, this movement is only being done to generate demand by USCIS, and you should expect significant retrogression in forthcoming months.

It is extremely sad that we ended months away from the tipping point this FY. If we had indeed rested at the July 1st 2007 whereabouts, the above would have a very strong chance. Even without this, I believe we might be teetering on the edge. Let's say fine, SO is bad, and we come to rest on September 1st 2007. So what then, how do you get more demand generated for FY 2013. The fundamental problem will always remain, and USCIS/DOS have to come to an agreement on how to tackle this.

Nishant,

I am not sure why it should have any effect.

At the beginning of FY2012, EB2-C have at least 3,200 cases outstanding, with more PWMB to become qualified as the months and dates progress.

That is more than the initial allocation of 2,803 available for the whole year.

Until the end of the third quarter, DOS cannot allocate more than 81% of total visas anyway (54% by end of Q2). Even if they were to allocate the full 2,803 available to EB2-C, they will not reach the tipping point.

Since EB1 and EB2-non IC demand seems quite strong going into FY2012, DOS may well be constrained how quickly they can use more than the 250ish visas per month allowed to each of EB2-C and EB2-I and stay within the 27% per quarter limit. At that rate, to reach the end of June 2007 for EB2-C would require 6.5 months worth and July 2007 needs the same again.

If usage of visas is low in other Categories, at some point DOS may be able to announce spare visas available to EB2-IC, as they did in the May VB in FY2011.

That seems relatively more unlikely in FY2012 at the same level of numbers (12k) as seen in FY2011. That 12k allowed a further 9.7k (81% of 12k) to be allocated to EB2 in May/June 2011, of which around 9k seems to be used.

In FY2011, DOS stayed completely within the law in starting SO season early IMO. I think it is more difficult for FY2012.

Either they have to ignore the law, or the numbers seen in part of Q3 will be much lower, or SO will not start until July 2012. it remains to be seen which one will happen.

I don't think EB2-C progress will be a factor at all.

haripathhi

08-29-2011, 03:49 PM

Nishant,

I cent-percent agree with you on this. I hope and pray USCIS/DOS decide to tackle this scenario in the near future rather than "waiting to cross the bridge when they approach it".

Spec, this puts to rest another theory in my mind.

Thanks a lot for the detailed reply.

Now about another theory which is breeding in my mind.

Now about the sentence about: "Either they have to ignore the law, or the numbers seen in part of Q3 will be much lower, or SO will not start until July 2012. it remains to be seen which one will happen."

In July 2007 fiasco period, I remember reading post analysis somewhere, where in the Ombudsman had worked out a deal with USCIS and DOS that all applicants with PD July 2007 and later will not be given green cards, and shall be only used to build up demand by USCIS.

I frankly see no way out for USCIS/DOS but to "ignore the law" and make a meaningful movement, sometime at least 6 months before the FY 2012 ends, and that movement also has to have a intake of a buffer period of 1 or 2 months also.

Now would this be called "ignoring the law", or rightfully and honestly, specifying the reason why it's being done, add a disclaimer just like they did in July 2007 period, something on the lines that, this movement is only being done to generate demand by USCIS, and you should expect significant retrogression in forthcoming months.

It is extremely sad that we ended months away from the tipping point this FY. If we had indeed rested at the July 1st 2007 whereabouts, the above would have a very strong chance. Even without this, I believe we might be teetering on the edge. Let's say fine, SO is bad, and we come to rest on September 1st 2007. So what then, how do you get more demand generated for FY 2013. The fundamental problem will always remain, and USCIS/DOS have to come to an agreement on how to tackle this.

Spectator

08-29-2011, 05:53 PM

I frankly see no way out for USCIS/DOS but to "ignore the law" and make a meaningful movement, sometime at least 6 months before the FY 2012 ends, and that movement also has to have a intake of a buffer period of 1 or 2 months also.Nishant,

There are always alternatives. Of course there are other ways out, even if they don't seem very palatable.

DOS can move the dates when they lawfully can (i.e. when enough visas are deemed to be available). Filing would be possible, with approval, for many, possibly the following year - or USCIS could actually do some work for a change.
If that happens to be too late for USCIS to adjudicate them all, there are plenty of pre adjudicated EB3 applicants who can use the spare visas if qualified adjudicated EB2 applicants run out.

Now would this be called "ignoring the law", or rightfully and honestly, specifying the reason why it's being done, add a disclaimer just like they did in July 2007 period, something on the lines that, this movement is only being done to generate demand by USCIS, and you should expect significant retrogression in forthcoming months.If DOS want to follow the law, they can't add a disclaimer like that. The dates can only move if there are visas immediately available. The law does not provide for movement purely to build demand. It is an area that needs changing, but there is no appetite in Congress to address it, nor have I even seen it suggested. As far as I am aware, there was never a disclaimer published in 2007 - please provide a link if you have one.

It is extremely sad that we ended months away from the tipping point this FY. If we had indeed rested at the July 1st 2007 whereabouts, the above would have a very strong chance. Even without this, I believe we might be teetering on the edge. Let's say fine, SO is bad, and we come to rest on September 1st 2007. So what then, how do you get more demand generated for FY 2013. The fundamental problem will always remain, and USCIS/DOS have to come to an agreement on how to tackle this.I don't think that a movement to July 1, 2007 would have made much difference.

That still would have left 3.8k + 2.7k PWMB + Porting which is still more than the initial allocation. Possibly EB2-C might have been able to push past August 15, 2007.

As it is, there is probably 16-18k EB2-IC demand without even moving beyond August 15, 2007, of which only 4.5k represents PWMB that would take any considerable time to adjudicate. Had the dates reached August 15, 2007 then possibly there was scope to do something about moving COD around CP cases.

The demand can be generated at the end of each yearly cycle. Each alternating year, not all cases might be adjudicated in time, allowing EB3 to potentially progress.

At least, in the broader sense, no EB visas would be wasted.

Who knows what will happen - I certainly don't. I do think it is one of the more interesting questions surrounding FY2012. Whatever happens, DOS cannot win - they will upset one group or the other.

Please treat my reply as playing the "straightest of bats". It is meant to be thought provoking.

qesehmk

08-29-2011, 06:13 PM

Spec

The law talks about visa allocation but moving dates is not something that law really cares about. in other words ... the dates can move without having to allocate visas to all whose dates are current or even those who are documentarily qualified. DoS has done it in the past and there is no reason why they wouldn't do it again - but for 2 reasons: 1) It makes their performance look bad when they can't process applications that are current and documentarily qualified. 2) Is there a motivating factor (e.g. building pipeline) that aligns with policy?

So whilst (oink oink) I do agree with you about why they may not move dates in 2011, I do not believe law has much to do with it.

On another note, laws can be bypassed, bent and outright broken. EB3 mexico date movement (or lack thereof) and "Quarterly Spillovers That Don't Occur" are excelent examples.

Nishant,

The dates can only move if there are visas immediately available. The law does not provide for movement purely to build demand.

nishant2200

08-29-2011, 06:35 PM

Spec, thanks for reply.

about your question, this is link to original good old July 2007 visa bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_3258.html

see Section E:

E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

All Employment Preference categories except for Third “Other Workers” have been made “Current” for July. This has been done in an effort to generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008.

Nishant,

There are always alternatives. Of course there are other ways out, even if they don't seem very palatable.

DOS can move the dates when they lawfully can (i.e. when enough visas are deemed to be available). Filing would be possible, with approval, for many, possibly the following year - or USCIS could actually do some work for a change.
If that happens to be too late for USCIS to adjudicate them all, there are plenty of pre adjudicated EB3 applicants who can use the spare visas if qualified adjudicated EB2 applicants run out.

If DOS want to follow the law, they can't add a disclaimer like that. The dates can only move if there are visas immediately available. The law does not provide for movement purely to build demand. It is an area that needs changing, but there is no appetite in Congress to address it, nor have I even seen it suggested. As far as I am aware, there was never a disclaimer published in 2007 - please provide a link if you have one.

I don't think that a movement to July 1, 2007 would have made much difference.

That still would have left 3.8k + 2.7k PWMB + Porting which is still more than the initial allocation. Possibly EB2-C might have been able to push past August 15, 2007.

As it is, there is probably 16-18k EB2-IC demand without even moving beyond August 15, 2007, of which only 4.5k represents PWMB that would take any considerable time to adjudicate. Had the dates reached August 15, 2007 then possibly there was scope to do something about moving COD around CP cases.

The demand can be generated at the end of each yearly cycle. Each alternating year, not all cases might be adjudicated in time, allowing EB3 to potentially progress.

At least, in the broader sense, no EB visas would be wasted.

Who knows what will happen - I certainly don't. I do think it is one of the more interesting questions surrounding FY2012. Whatever happens, DOS cannot win - they will upset one group or the other.

Please treat my reply as playing the "straightest of bats". It is meant to be thought provoking.

Q, see above, you are absolutely correct I feel, they have in fact done this earlier, as per above.

Spec

The law talks about visa allocation but moving dates is not something that law really cares about. in other words ... the dates can move without having to allocate visas to all whose dates are current or even those who are documentarily qualified. DoS has done it in the past and there is no reason why they wouldn't do it again - but for 2 reasons: 1) It makes their performance look bad when they can't process applications that are current and documentarily qualified. 2) Is there a motivating factor (e.g. building pipeline) that aligns with policy?

So whilst (oink oink) I do agree with you about why they may not move dates in 2011, I do not believe law has much to do with it.

On another note, laws can be bypassed, bent and outright broken. EB3 mexico date movement (or lack thereof) and "Quarterly Spillovers That Don't Occur" are excelent examples.

Spectator

08-29-2011, 08:22 PM

Spec, thanks for reply.

about your question, this is link to original good old July 2007 visa bulletin: http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_3258.html

see Section E:

E. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

All Employment Preference categories except for Third “Other Workers” have been made “Current” for July. This has been done in an effort to generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008.Nishant,

Thanks for the link.

It was to try to get USCIS to complete more cases (generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases) and to avoid wastage of visas (to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit) by allowing DOS to allocate visas to as many CP cases as possible. Generating an Inventory was merely a by-product of not wasting visas.

Also, this was July, the first month of Q4, when limitations are removed. After the event, we know what a disaster that was, so it seems unlikely to be repeated.

A couple of things are different.

DOS now know how many cases USCIS have and USCIS production rates have been sufficient not to waste visas since.

Coming to Q's point, the problem is that there are probably anywhere between 8-18k cases that could be approved if the dates moved forward. The absolute minimum is the 8k demand left at the end of August, which is more than the initial limit.

That means DOS cannot move the date beyond August 15, 2007 until there are enough visas available to cover that date and then some more. By the time that decision can be made, at least 6 months will have elapsed and we can add on another 2k Porting cases. That means more than 10k visas would be needed. If we start with 5.6k visas initially, that means more than 4.4k need to be available to move beyond the backlog.

If that was done in the first month of Q3 (April 2012), then more than 5.4k additional visas would need to be announced. To also account for PWMB in that period would need more than 9k visas to be announced.

To move to October 2007 would need 21k visas to be announced. Given that we might expect quite strong performance from EB1 and EB2-non IC initially, then even 9k would be a very good result.

That really means any substantial movement would need to wait to July 2012, if the law is to be followed.

I agree with you that DOS may not necessarily follow the law religiously. That will possibly create a problem.

There is an EB universe beyond EB2-IC. Others will be looking to make sure that DOS do follow the law.

Whilst no-one in this forum is guilty of this, a certain section of EB2-I in other forums have delighted in rubbing EB3 noses in the dirt about how the revised spillover interpretation is just following the law.

If following the law also has a deleterious effect on EB2 at some point, then EB3 will just say "what is sauce for the goose, is sauce for the gander" and that the law cannot be bent or broken to benefit a particular group.

qesehmk

08-29-2011, 09:11 PM

Spec,

we can't fault EB2IC for being happy about the changed spillover interpretation, can we? After all they too have been waiting upto a decade. EB3ROW is going to have timelines similar to EB2IC. But the worst affected group is EB3IC. I would agree though that this is still an overall unfortunate situation.

But coming back to a key point that I have tried to make - unsuccessfully it seems - is that allocation is something that law does address. Visa dates movement is a DoS privilege and they can do so as per they please. Law - per say - doesn't tie their hands as far as visa dates movement is concerned.

Nishant,

Thanks for the link.

It was to try to get USCIS to complete more cases (generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases) and to avoid wastage of visas (to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit) by allowing DOS to allocate visas to as many CP cases as possible. Generating an Inventory was merely a by-product of not wasting visas.

Also, this was July, the first month of Q4, when limitations are removed. After the event, we know what a disaster that was, so it seems unlikely to be repeated.

A couple of things are different.

DOS now know how many cases USCIS have and USCIS production rates have been sufficient not to waste visas since.

Coming to Q's point, the problem is that there are probably anywhere between 8-18k cases that could be approved if the dates moved forward. The absolute minimum is the 8k demand left at the end of August, which is more than the initial limit.

That means DOS cannot move the date beyond August 15, 2007 until there are enough visas available to cover that date and then some more. By the time that decision can be made, at least 6 months will have elapsed and we can add on another 2k Porting cases. That means more than 10k visas would be needed. If we start with 5.6k visas initially, that means more than 4.4k need to be available to move beyond the backlog.

If that was done in the first month of Q3 (April 2012), then more than 5.4k additional visas would need to be announced. To also account for PWMB in that period would need more than 9k visas to be announced.

To move to October 2007 would need 21k visas to be announced. Given that we might expect quite strong performance from EB1 and EB2-non IC initially, then even 9k would be a very good result.

That really means any substantial movement would need to wait to July 2012, if the law is to be followed.

I agree with you that DOS may not necessarily follow the law religiously. That will possibly create a problem.

There is an EB universe beyond EB2-IC. Others will be looking to make sure that DOS do follow the law.

Whilst no-one in this forum is guilty of this, a certain section of EB2-I in other forums have delighted in rubbing EB3 noses in the dirt about how the revised spillover interpretation is just following the law.

If following the law also has a deleterious effect on EB2 at some point, then EB3 will just say "what is sauce for the goose, is sauce for the gander" and that the law cannot be bent or broken to benefit a particular group.

Spectator

08-29-2011, 09:35 PM

qesehmk

08-29-2011, 09:54 PM

Jitesh

08-29-2011, 10:35 PM

So what do you think guyz - when will dates start moving for EB2I?

Spectator

08-30-2011, 07:34 AM

Spec

Look at the 245 (a):
Quote
The status of an alien who was inspected and admitted or paroled into the United States may be adjusted by the Attorney General, in his discretion and under such regulations as he may prescribe,
Unquote

The law could've been mute about discretion. But instead it chose to explicitely state that even if everything else is fulfiled (including date being current) a visa is allocated with "DISCRETION".Q,

IMO the discretion clause is about having the ability to refuse to adjust a person to LPR for any reason the Secretary of the DHS deems fit, even if they meet the requirements i.e it is not an automatic right.

Ultimately, as I re-read the conversation, I think we are probably talking at cross purposes.

I think we both agree that enough visas need to be available to move the dates within the current backlog.

My point is DOS may find it difficult to find enough visas early enough in FY2012 to move the COD to the end of the backlog.

As an extreme example, DOS couldn't move the COD to 15AUG07 in the October 2011 VB.

Clearly, for the July 2012 VB they could find enough visas and use 202(a)(5).

Really it is a debate about whether they can find enough in Q3.

In the best case, where porting is low and the COD doesn't move from the September VB date (thereby limiting any new PWMB from becoming qualified), DOS might be able to do something in Q3.

In the worst case, DOS won't be able to find enough visas until the July 2012 VB.

That would leave the possibility of some cases failing to be adjudicated within the fiscal year.

Having said that, USCIS were able to process some new PWMB this year in very short time scales. I have always maintained that USCIS can process cases in 3 months if they are motivated enough to do so. In that case it doesn't matter when the dates move.

Because there are so many potential cases even within a 15AUG07 COD, the numbers falling to EB3 would be fairly small anyway.

It's probably time to leave this and just see what happens.

nishant2200

08-30-2011, 08:37 AM

Spec, thanks again for detailed response.

Reason I put forth these theories, so that we get intelligent feedback on them. We can summarize our understanding then, and put rest to doubts possibly.

And can't just wait and see what happens :) too much of a big deal for some.

Now, my takeaway is: If they are able to announce spare visas in May like this year, dates might move to the tipping point. But that will get them PWMB also. Next move can then be only in dying phases of the FY. If no spare visas can be announced early, then anyways it means bad SO and dates move in dying phases will be enough.

People in late 2007, should keep all docs ready, be extremely careful to avoid RFE, if they have any chance of getting GC in next FY. Window if opens might be very small.

Now, if they do realize in dying phases, SO more, EB2IC demand less, processing time left less. Then they should move dates into 2008 to grab CP demand, and also advance EB3 ROW dates. And so we get by-product of inventory again.

And I still think they need a official way to deal with this entire mess to be able to make inventory.

Q,

IMO the discretion clause is about having the ability to refuse to adjust a person to LPR for any reason the Secretary of the DHS deems fit, even if they meet the requirements i.e it is not an automatic right.

Ultimately, as I re-read the conversation, I think we are probably talking at cross purposes.

I think we both agree that enough visas need to be available to move the dates within the current backlog.

My point is DOS may find it difficult to find enough visas early enough in FY2012 to move the COD to the end of the backlog.

As an extreme example, DOS couldn't move the COD to 15AUG07 in the October 2011 VB.

Clearly, for the July 2012 VB they could find enough visas and use 202(a)(5).

Really it is a debate about whether they can find enough in Q3.

In the best case, where porting is low and the COD doesn't move from the September VB date (thereby limiting any new PWMB from becoming qualified), DOS might be able to do something in Q3.

In the worst case, DOS won't be able to find enough visas until the July 2012 VB.

That would leave the possibility of some cases failing to be adjudicated within the fiscal year.

Having said that, USCIS were able to process some new PWMB this year in very short time scales. I have always maintained that USCIS can process cases in 3 months if they are motivated enough to do so. In that case it doesn't matter when the dates move.

Because there are so many potential cases even within a 15AUG07 COD, the numbers falling to EB3 would be fairly small anyway.

It's probably time to leave this and just see what happens.

Spectator

08-30-2011, 09:04 AM

Nishant,

I completely agree with your analysis.

makmohan

08-30-2011, 10:08 AM

All,

Is there any separate thread or discussions that lists all documents that absolutely need to be ready in order to avoid any RFE in case the dates become current?

Thanks,
M

mvinayam

08-30-2011, 10:18 AM

Nishant,

I completely agree with your analysis.

Gurus,

Since the CO was hoping to move the date to July 1 2007 in Sept 2011 Bulletin is there any hope or possibility for the dates to move to July 1st 2007 before the Spill over season or any rough estimate when the dates can move to July 1st for EB2 IC.

Need to make some important career decision so will be better to know how long will be the wait time :( .

gcseeker

08-30-2011, 11:37 AM

Jitesh

Please read through the previous posts and you will notice the majority opinion of the gurus is that dates will only start moving in Q3 of 2012 . However dates might move by 2-3 weeks starting with the next visa bulletin.

So what do you think guyz - when will dates start moving for EB2I?

mvinayam

Based on the great analysis that has been done by the gurus in the forum ,dates might not move in a significant way before June/July 2012 .However Q has said before that CO might be forced to do the movement earlier this year to build the demand pipeline. ( March/April 2012) . At this point all of these are theories with some underlying proof in the numbers. The X factor in all of this is the policy implementation of the CO/USCIS and political and economic factors which have an bearing on SOFAD and policy .

I would take the sound advice given by Nishant that Late 2007 PD guys in the best case will atleast get an EAD in 2012...most realistically will be 2013.So if one wants to take an promotion or change jobs to a better job ,this would be a good time . ( Disclaimer: Weigh the effect of the economy , job security , RFE possibilities with new PERM etc etc ) .

Just to add one small note based purely on my reading of the political tea leaves. Next year is an election year and there will not be an huge movement period. I think they will max clear untill Oct 2007 or Dec 2007 at best. USCIS does have to answer to its political masters . 2013 will decide whether we get an Repub or Democrat and the policy decisions will as usual change. Also the Repubs only need to pick up 4 seats in the senate races of 2012 to take away control of the senate.They already control the house.Even if Obama wins he will be faced with a senate and house that might not help him.Best case scenario would be an Repub president (atleast for Legal Immigration )

Gurus,

Since the CO was hoping to move the date to July 1 2007 in Sept 2011 Bulletin is there any hope or possibility for the dates to move to July 1st 2007 before the Spill over season or any rough estimate when the dates can move to July 1st for EB2 IC.

Need to make some important career decision so will be better to know how long will be the wait time :( .

qblogfan

08-30-2011, 12:02 PM

We have to wait for year after year
I have gone through 5 summers.
I hope the 2012 summer will be the last summer of my GC journey.
It is killing people.

Jitesh

Please read through the previous posts and you will notice the majority opinion of the gurus is that dates will only start moving in Q3 of 2012 . However dates might move by 2-3 weeks starting with the next visa bulletin.

mvinayam

Based on the great analysis that has been done by the gurus in the forum ,dates might not move in a significant way before June/July 2012 .However Q has said before that CO might be forced to do the movement earlier this year to build the demand pipeline. ( March/April 2012) . At this point all of these are theories with some underlying proof in the numbers. The X factor in all of this is the policy implementation of the CO/USCIS and political and economic factors which have an bearing on SOFAD and policy .

I would take the sound advice given by Nishant that Late 2007 PD guys in the best case will atleast get an EAD in 2012...most realistically will be 2013.So if one wants to take an promotion or change jobs to a better job ,this would be a good time . ( Disclaimer: Weigh the effect of the economy , job security , RFE possibilities with new PERM etc etc ) .

Just to add one small note based purely on my reading of the political tea leaves. Next year is an election year and there will not be an huge movement period. I think they will max clear untill Oct 2007 or Dec 2007 at best. USCIS does have to answer to its political masters . 2013 will decide whether we get an Repub or Democrat and the policy decisions will as usual change. Also the Repubs only need to pick up 4 seats in the senate races of 2012 to take away control of the senate.They already control the house.Even if Obama wins he will be faced with a senate and house that might not help him.Best case scenario would be an Repub president (atleast for Legal Immigration )

gcseeker

08-30-2011, 12:21 PM

Qblogfan

I do feel your pain having read your post about not being able to visit your parents and their visas getting denied multiple times. Cheer up friend ,this long journey will end sometime next year or by 2013.I hope it ends soon for you.

Just putting a positive spin on the situation. In the words of Lao Tse ( Laozi) the great chinese philosopher.The journey of hardship teaches one many lessons if one can listen :) . Who knows you might apply one of the lessons learnt in this journey in the future for some other situation.

We have to wait for year after year
I have gone through 5 summers.
I hope the 2012 summer will be the last summer of my GC journey.
It is killing people.

nishant2200

08-30-2011, 12:27 PM

gcseeker, well said on all counts.

Jitesh

Please read through the previous posts and you will notice the majority opinion of the gurus is that dates will only start moving in Q3 of 2012 . However dates might move by 2-3 weeks starting with the next visa bulletin.

mvinayam

Based on the great analysis that has been done by the gurus in the forum ,dates might not move in a significant way before June/July 2012 .However Q has said before that CO might be forced to do the movement earlier this year to build the demand pipeline. ( March/April 2012) . At this point all of these are theories with some underlying proof in the numbers. The X factor in all of this is the policy implementation of the CO/USCIS and political and economic factors which have an bearing on SOFAD and policy .

I would take the sound advice given by Nishant that Late 2007 PD guys in the best case will atleast get an EAD in 2012...most realistically will be 2013.So if one wants to take an promotion or change jobs to a better job ,this would be a good time . ( Disclaimer: Weigh the effect of the economy , job security , RFE possibilities with new PERM etc etc ) .

Just to add one small note based purely on my reading of the political tea leaves. Next year is an election year and there will not be an huge movement period. I think they will max clear untill Oct 2007 or Dec 2007 at best. USCIS does have to answer to its political masters . 2013 will decide whether we get an Repub or Democrat and the policy decisions will as usual change. Also the Repubs only need to pick up 4 seats in the senate races of 2012 to take away control of the senate.They already control the house.Even if Obama wins he will be faced with a senate and house that might not help him.Best case scenario would be an Repub president (atleast for Legal Immigration )

Qblogfan

I do feel your pain having read your post about not being able to visit your parents and their visas getting denied multiple times. Cheer up friend ,this long journey will end sometime next year or by 2013.I hope it ends soon for you.

Just putting a positive spin on the situation. In the words of Lao Tse ( Laozi) the great chinese philosopher.The journey of hardship teaches one many lessons if one can listen :) . Who knows you might apply one of the lessons learnt in this journey in the future for some other situation.

nishant2200

08-30-2011, 12:33 PM

I think what we have is here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?41-Prepare-to-file-I485

also do a google search for documents needed to file I-485, you will come across immihelp and path2usa websites among others. Also one should read the form I-485 and its filing instructions.

Of course, first and foremost, if possible, this should be determined from the company lawyer. If you feel lawyer is missing something, or needs some specifics on your situation (like no birth certificate, wrong name in some document etc.), enlighten him politely.

If you need to get any affidavits, documents etc from India, it's never too late to start from right now. Any affidavit, made right now, will be valid in future. You don't need to wait. So that you don't rush at last moment. Remember it's not easy to get this administrative haggling done in India, and in some cases, it might be upto our old parents to run around for us. Better do it early.

All,

Is there any separate thread or discussions that lists all documents that absolutely need to be ready in order to avoid any RFE in case the dates become current?

Thanks,
M

soggadu

08-30-2011, 01:03 PM

i got my touchpad... i am back to the forum now... just in case if you all r wondering where have i gone... :-)... its been a hell of a hunt...

qblogfan

08-30-2011, 01:12 PM

Thanks for your kind words.

I am glad to know you know Laozi. Your words are so impressive!

Qblogfan

I do feel your pain having read your post about not being able to visit your parents and their visas getting denied multiple times. Cheer up friend ,this long journey will end sometime next year or by 2013.I hope it ends soon for you.

Just putting a positive spin on the situation. In the words of Lao Tse ( Laozi) the great chinese philosopher.The journey of hardship teaches one many lessons if one can listen :) . Who knows you might apply one of the lessons learnt in this journey in the future for some other situation.

qblogfan

08-30-2011, 01:12 PM

Ni hao! thanks for your kind words.

gcseeker, well said on all counts.

qesehmk

08-30-2011, 01:20 PM

Spec

Now you are talking that the bird is not dead..... he is lying down with eyes closed not breathing and cold etc etc... Just acknowledge things for what they are.

Granting LPR is discretionary means that law does NOT require USCIS/DOS to grant LPR even if dates are current.

DoS can legally move dates all over the place and teh law doesn't have a problem with that.

You can ignore this common sense ... and sorry to be persistent and a bit harsh ... but i think you sometimes just can never agree to something contrary to your belief.

Q,

IMO the discretion clause is about having the ability to refuse to adjust a person to LPR for any reason the Secretary of the DHS deems fit, even if they meet the requirements i.e it is not an automatic right.

Ultimately, as I re-read the conversation, I think we are probably talking at cross purposes.

I think we both agree that enough visas need to be available to move the dates within the current backlog.

My point is DOS may find it difficult to find enough visas early enough in FY2012 to move the COD to the end of the backlog.

As an extreme example, DOS couldn't move the COD to 15AUG07 in the October 2011 VB.

Clearly, for the July 2012 VB they could find enough visas and use 202(a)(5).

Really it is a debate about whether they can find enough in Q3.

In the best case, where porting is low and the COD doesn't move from the September VB date (thereby limiting any new PWMB from becoming qualified), DOS might be able to do something in Q3.

In the worst case, DOS won't be able to find enough visas until the July 2012 VB.

That would leave the possibility of some cases failing to be adjudicated within the fiscal year.

Having said that, USCIS were able to process some new PWMB this year in very short time scales. I have always maintained that USCIS can process cases in 3 months if they are motivated enough to do so. In that case it doesn't matter when the dates move.

Because there are so many potential cases even within a 15AUG07 COD, the numbers falling to EB3 would be fairly small anyway.

It's probably time to leave this and just see what happens.

ssvp22

08-30-2011, 01:53 PM

gchopeful123

08-30-2011, 03:09 PM

Hey Soggadu,

Where did you find it? Let me know...i need to get one as well.

Thanks!

i got my touchpad... i am back to the forum now... just in case if you all r wondering where have i gone... :-)... its been a hell of a hunt...

soggadu

08-30-2011, 03:43 PM

Hey Soggadu,

Where did you find it? Let me know...i need to get one as well.

Thanks!

man...its too hard... got mine from circuit city and they are not selling them any more... but whats happening now a days...

P.S. One of friends saying end its eminent next year and get prepared and all... just wondering if we can get our GC before 12/12/2012... I want to catch it once before it gets dark... MY PRECIOUSSSSS....

nishant2200

08-30-2011, 03:44 PM

Take it easy folks. Either way, the discussion is not going to make the dates move earlier or later. They are what they are.

We should not worry. Q and Spec are ok. It's just their passion for the analysis, we mere mortals may sometimes interpret otherwise. I am personally a big fan of them both, as well as Teddy and Veni. And not forgetting the various strong contributors like urself, bieber, neospeed, kanmani, (also sogaddu :) ) forgive me if don't recollect other names here.

We are soon going to start new thread for FY 2012, looking forward to that. All the best for next year to everyone.

cbpds1

08-30-2011, 04:04 PM

I was hunting in vain, u have some pointers? :)

i got my touchpad... i am back to the forum now... just in case if you all r wondering where have i gone... :-)... its been a hell of a hunt...

soggadu

08-30-2011, 04:11 PM

I was hunting in vain, u have some pointers? :)

Get registered with hp.com... they are sending in emails wheh they get these in stock...

Nishant...

You got really involved dude...now i can say fab five instead of 4... i am happy for your contributions... keep it going....

Hey Q... How is ur card... r u going to post it here or not ;-) ...

soggadu

08-30-2011, 04:12 PM

Take it easy folks. Either way, the discussion is not going to make the dates move earlier or later. They are what they are.

arey uncle... lets appreciate for what they are able to do and doing... they are really keeping the forum going in this dull weather... jai ho ...Fab 5...

qesehmk

08-30-2011, 04:57 PM

soggadu ... just now my 2 yr old saw your Avatar and she burst into laughter!! Love that about you.

Spec bhai is the greatest analyst I have seen. But sometimes I have to make extra effort ... but no worries ... we are good.

As per GC ... just now me and spouse were discussing ... that GC indeed is a great peace of mind. Anybody who says life hasn't changed materially may not necessarily be lying but has definitely lost perspective of how it was before GC. So hang in ... and your turn will come :)

Get registered with hp.com... they are sending in emails wheh they get these in stock...

Nishant...

You got really involved dude...now i can say fab five instead of 4... i am happy for your contributions... keep it going....

Hey Q... How is ur card... r u going to post it here or not ;-) ...

Spectator

08-30-2011, 05:59 PM

Q and I are good.

We are both passionate and sometimes disagree on some of the subtleties.

It never lasts - venting clears the air and neither of us hold any grudges. I respect Q and what he has to say too much for that.

Disagreement sometimes leads to the greatest understanding.

Movement one way or another is an evolutionary process - it doesn't happen immediately, which is a good thing.

ssvp22

08-30-2011, 07:09 PM

arey uncle...
That's a first for me

qblogfan

08-31-2011, 09:48 AM

If they can do spill over quarter by quarter, it will be a win win situation.

In the first two quarters, they only used 35%-40% of annual quota.

If we can push them to start spillover from the 1st quarter, the waiting will be less painful for all the applicants.

Ignore if this information is already posted.

3rd quarter USCIS performance data is published

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

nishant2200

08-31-2011, 10:00 AM

srimurthy

08-31-2011, 10:09 AM

One Q guys, why can't we apply for a EAD lets say after a period of I-140 approval? Instead of waiting till the dates become current. My understanding is atleast this would easy the pain. Because once the dates are current usually the EAD and the Card allotment gets completed with in a year timeframe other than the 2007 scenario where they opened the floodgates. I was trying to understand whats is stopping this since a PERM and I-140 approval means the job is there and all related items are cleared. Only thing that needs verification is the background checks and visa availability before GC is allocated, so whats stopping USCIS to allow people to change to EAD?

mesan123

08-31-2011, 10:19 AM

I feel th same...gurus can answer better....why cant USCIS let us file 485 . They can issue us the GC when our date becomes current....Atleast with this way people can get EAD and can work on that....and have no hassles of H1b...

Which law is stopping them from doing so???:confused:

One Q guys, why can't we apply for a EAD lets say after a period of I-140 approval? Instead of waiting till the dates become current. My understanding is atleast this would easy the pain. Because once the dates are current usually the EAD and the Card allotment gets completed with in a year timeframe other than the 2007 scenario where they opened the floodgates. I was trying to understand whats is stopping this since a PERM and I-140 approval means the job is there and all related items are cleared. Only thing that needs verification is the background checks and visa availability before GC is allocated, so whats stopping USCIS to allow people to change to EAD?

iamdeb

08-31-2011, 10:36 AM

qesehmk

08-31-2011, 10:48 AM

CO kind of did it in Q3 this year, and almost sarcastically USCIS got back at him in the end with exact amount as overdue. 12k. IMHO he won't do quarterly.

Secondly, due to 140 surge, quarterly might not gain us much in next FY.

But u never know, by law they can, and will definitely help manage the chaos better n make wait bearable for some.
I doubt it Nishant. Initially I thought their objective was to help ROW. But now I think it is to keep EB-IC numbers utilization as low as possible.
On another note - CO actually did a favor to USCIS by keeping enough numbers available. He would be very well within his authority to deny any numbers since he hadn't seen that demand materialize.

One Q guys, why can't we apply for a EAD lets say after a period of I-140 approval? Instead of waiting till the dates become current. My understanding is atleast this would easy the pain. Because once the dates are current usually the EAD and the Card allotment gets completed with in a year timeframe other than the 2007 scenario where they opened the floodgates. I was trying to understand whats is stopping this since a PERM and I-140 approval means the job is there and all related items are cleared. Only thing that needs verification is the background checks and visa availability before GC is allocated, so whats stopping USCIS to allow people to change to EAD?
They are actively working on it. Some legal wiseguy can point us to a proposed bill that contains this provision.

[QUOTE=mesan123;8026]I feel th same...gurus can answer better....why cant USCIS let us file 485 . They can issue us the GC when our date becomes current....Atleast with this way people can get EAD and can work on that....and have no hassles of H1b...

Which law is stopping them from doing so???:confused:[/QUOTE
Again it is being proposed that people with 140 can obtain an EAD without havign to wait for 485.

nishant2200

08-31-2011, 12:09 PM

I agree with this point of view also. Good angle. Makes a lot of sense. Seems like CO is really conservative and wants to be fair as much as possible, to all he can.

bieber said long back, which I keep remembering. If instead of huge movements early on, they had moved just 2 months slowly, we would have still ended up on 15-april-2007 and would not have been as disappointed!

I doubt it Nishant. Initially I thought their objective was to help ROW. But now I think it is to keep EB-IC numbers utilization as low as possible.
On another note - CO actually did a favor to USCIS by keeping enough numbers available. He would be very well within his authority to deny any numbers since he hadn't seen that demand materialize.

Kanmani

08-31-2011, 01:09 PM

Oct 2010 - June 2011 Total I-485 approvals = 82112

Balance left for 4th qtr = 57888

In July we got news from mittbs that 119K has already elapsed and only 21 K left for aug & Sep .

Contradiction or possible ?

qblogfan

08-31-2011, 01:34 PM

MITBBS data includes CP data and also July approvals/assigned numbers.

USCIS Q1-Q3 ends June.

Oct 2010 - June 2011 Total I-485 approvals = 82112

Balance left for 4th qtr = 57888

In July we got news from mittbs that 119K has already elapsed and only 21 K left for aug & Sep .

Contradiction or possible ?

qesehmk

08-31-2011, 02:13 PM

I always looked at the MITBBS numbers are 485+CP actual and projected allocation through Aug 2011.

Then it makes all sense.

Oct 2010 - June 2011 Total I-485 approvals = 82112

Balance left for 4th qtr = 57888

In July we got news from mittbs that 119K has already elapsed and only 21 K left for aug & Sep .

Contradiction or possible ?

veni001

08-31-2011, 02:25 PM

qblogfan,
Remember USCIS numbers represent only AOS (485), we have to add CP to ~82K.

FY2010 CP(EB1-5) = ~12.5K, If we take same CP number for this year means only ~45k is available to USCIS for Q4.

Assuming EB2IC will be using 15 -18K in Q4, leaves about 27-30k for the rest (EB1,EB2ROW, EB3All, EB4 and EB5).

qblogfan,

Not only that let's look at 140 data

FY2011:I140 Data

Q1-Q2:
Completions = 35,331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (12.77%)

Q3:
Completions = 26,838
Approvals = 24,757
Denials = 2,081 (7.75%)

Q1-Q3:
Completions = 62,169
Approvals = 55,577
Denials = 6,592 (10.60%)

Looking at Q3 - 140 approvals are almost doubled and the denial ratio dropped significantly, means more EB2ROW-M-P(485) into the pipeline for Q4.

Oct 2010 - June 2011 Total I-485 approvals = 82112

Balance left for 4th qtr = 57888

In July we got news from mittbs that 119K has already elapsed and only 21 K left for aug & Sep .

Contradiction or possible ?

Kanmani,
Please see my response to qblogfan on this data above.

chirag.n

08-31-2011, 02:31 PM

the new fiscal year starts in a few days...all the very best to everyone...may everyone in the line get GC asap....

soggadu

08-31-2011, 02:55 PM

soggadu ... just now my 2 yr old saw your Avatar and she burst into laughter!! Love that about you.

Spec bhai is the greatest analyst I have seen. But sometimes I have to make extra effort ... but no worries ... we are good.

As per GC ... just now me and spouse were discussing ... that GC indeed is a great peace of mind. Anybody who says life hasn't changed materially may not necessarily be lying but has definitely lost perspective of how it was before GC. So hang in ... and your turn will come :)

lol...say my hi hello to the princess Q...

I totally agree with u on the GC thing... one of my friend got gc mail in the morning and by evening he has his europe and african safari tickets ready... lol... talk about freedom....

nishant2200

08-31-2011, 03:21 PM

Latest H1b count, just happened to see: only 29,000. Masters is at 15,800.

Less incoming from non I/C, if not advantageous, definitely is not going to harm :)

nishant2200

08-31-2011, 03:22 PM

nishant2200

08-31-2011, 03:26 PM

many times I have dreamt of this day, and always I visualize myself lying down on a cloud and floating peacefully.

lol...say my hi hello to the princess Q...

I totally agree with u on the GC thing... one of my friend got gc mail in the morning and by evening he has his europe and african safari tickets ready... lol... talk about freedom....

TeddyKoochu

08-31-2011, 03:47 PM

Perspective. I myself realized that when we for eg. talk about 6k porting, it's not actually 6,000 people switching from EB3 to EB2, it's more like 2,900 people doing so, which suddenly sounds more realistic than 6k.

Nishant that’s a good way of looking at the situation. I have 3 colleagues with EB3 PD ranging from early 2003 to mid 2005, all of them now have close to 15 years of experience (All of them senior to me), and they are finally doing everything possible to port. Initially I was even surprised to know that these guys are in EB3. Besides that 2 close friends formerly we were neighbors and still keep meeting every month are also nearing 15 years stuck in EB3 but with a big Fortune 100 company which will not file, they are happy with life on EAD for now but have plans to try for porting.
So porting won’t come down anytime soon, effective porting potential is now much higher and anyone before 15-APR-2007 can get GC sooner than most new filers as the 485 must already be adjudicated.

donvar

08-31-2011, 03:58 PM

I doubt it Nishant. Initially I thought their objective was to help ROW. But now I think it is to keep EB-IC numbers utilization as low as possible.

Q

What is your reasoning for the above thought?

TeddyKoochu

08-31-2011, 04:34 PM

Friends the whole idea here is to have a good report to show to the management. The dashboard is nothing but reporting to executive management to whom just absolute figures matter they do not care for real details. So for this case the fresh intake actually hurts because it adds to the backlog, if it were approvable then if there is a current case (EB2 ROW or EB1) waiting for any reason or even appeared slightly later it harms the statistics by showing more backlogs. This situation is in fact perfectly in line with the law as well, we all feel the pain though. Fresh intake also means more work, however if things can be managed by less / none and great results be shown its a win - win situation. So really to accelerate things towards the tipping point it is important that the EB2 ROW and EB1 demand comes down plus the current level of unprecedented backlog of 20K (As per last inventory) be cleared, since both the things combined will be tough and we are literally 8K (Preadjudicated cases) and virtually 16-18K (Preadjudicated + PWMB + Porting) away from the tipping point BTM in the near term is difficult. What makes the situation even worse is that the I140 rates of completion have accelerated to an extent that atleast Q1 2012 may not yield any SOFAD atleast from EB2 ROW. Let’s keep monitoring and checking it’s still very early days every year is a different year. My prediction of 01-OCT-2007 with ~ 22K SOFAD is just Ball Park, I hope I can revise it for the better however this is how the situation looks now, this date is for actual GC issuance, I know most people are really looking to file for just their 485’s this could be a few months further depending on what kind of intake happens and when. Unfortunately the 6 months from now will be slow especially for India, it will be interesting to watch China movement as they don’t have that much of porting. On another interesting note PWMB cases filed in Jul 2011 seem to be getting approved this may also have been a factor in restraining the dates in September.

qesehmk

08-31-2011, 04:35 PM

TeddyKoochu

08-31-2011, 04:56 PM

For following reasons and observed facts:

1. USCIS wrongly interpreted spillover rules until 2007 thus starving EB23ICs.
2. USCIS continues to ignore quarterly spillovers which would directly benefit EB2ICs.
3. After 2007 USCIS cleared all EB1 EB2ROW 485 backlog with unprecedented efficiency. This was especially true for year 2009. Thus preventing any spillover to EB2IC.
4. Then in 2010 when the 485 backlog was reduced, USCIS working with other agencies cleared off record labor backlog for EB2ROW thus preventing significant spillover to EB2IC again.
5. Coming to this year again, USCIS gave advance warning - an unprecedented step - to DoS saying they have 12K in future eligible cases. Thus preventing EB2IC benefit.
6. Additionally EB2I it seems is unfairly targeted for EVC kind of nonsense.
7. USCIS has all along been allocating 7% across FB EB limit and allocating precious EB visas to countries like S Korea.

In all these cases, there is clear bias against IC utilizing more visas. Granted both countries do utilize a lot of visas but then those two countries have a third of world's population between them. So is it a big deal if they consume a lot of visas? But somehow USCIS and DoS it seems favor nationality diversity. I also have thoughts on why ..... but hey I will leave that for people to figure out.

Q amazingly well said all the points are really true. Points 1 - 5 have indeed caused severe damage to EB2 I/C if even one of them were not there then the tipping point would have been broken this year. Point 1 has caused the severest damage I think if that would have been addressed earlier then the tipping point may have well come in 2009 or worst case 2010. Point 6 on the EVC is really something that they have taken very far, if corporate America is fine with that I don't understand why they are hell bent on destroying people’s lives and families quite literally. Point # 7 also harms ROW countries Mexico & Philippines continue to hog huge numbers from EB3 thereby depriving the rest of the ROW countries. Worst thing is the mixing of illegal and legal immigration via 245I this caused severe damage to EB3-I (It was shuttling in 2001 for 5 years) and even now to EB3 ROW (Hidden Demand), despite the fact that there are human issues with the undocumented this mixing is extremely unfair to all people to have followed the law in every sense.

nishant2200

08-31-2011, 05:15 PM

Teddy, Q: totally agree.

Q amazingly well said all the points are really true. Points 1 - 5 have indeed caused severe damage to EB2 I/C if even one of them were not there then the tipping point would have been broken this year. Point 1 has caused the severest damage I think if that would have been addressed earlier then the tipping point may have well come in 2009 or worst case 2010. Point 6 on the EVC is really something that they have taken very far, if corporate America is fine with that I don't understand why they are hell bent on destroying people’s lives and families quite literally. Point # 7 also harms ROW countries Mexico & Philippines continue to hog huge numbers from EB3 thereby depriving the rest of the ROW countries. Worst thing is the mixing of illegal and legal immigration via 245I this caused severe damage to EB3-I (It was shuttling in 2001 for 5 years) and even now to EB3 ROW (Hidden Demand), despite the fact that there are human issues with the undocumented this mixing is extremely unfair to all people to have followed the law in every sense.

gcq

08-31-2011, 05:17 PM

Regarding following Q's points listed below.

1. USCIS wrongly interpreted spillover rules until 2007 thus starving EB23ICs.
Visa office(CO) has a leaning towards ROW. This might have clouded his judgement into overlooking AC21. This is an ongoing issue with Visa office. This is what caused 2009 EB3IC discrimination by visa office. Many times CO forgets the fact that he doesn't have any discretionary power. Only congress has it. He is an official meant to allocate visas as stipulated in the law.

2. USCIS continues to ignore quarterly spillovers which would directly benefit EB2ICs.
Not sure how VO can implement quarterly spillovers. The year isn't over until it is over. If VO spills the visa over each quarter, it will have no option of correcting it if surprise demand shows up in the last quarter.

3. After 2007 USCIS cleared all EB1 EB2ROW 485 backlog with unprecedented efficiency. This was especially true for year 2009. Thus preventing any spillover to EB2IC.
It might have happened that way. May not be intentional.

4. Then in 2010 when the 485 backlog was reduced, USCIS working with other agencies cleared off record labor backlog for EB2ROW thus preventing significant spillover to EB2IC again.

Again, this may not be intentional.

5. Coming to this year again, USCIS gave advance warning - an unprecedented step - to DoS saying they have 12K in future eligible cases. Thus preventing EB2IC benefit.

Isn't DOS and USCIS supposed to co-ordinate in the visa allocation ? I guess that is what happened here.

6. Additionally EB2I it seems is unfairly targeted for EVC kind of nonsense.

When it comes to legal immigration ( especially from India) Grassley and Obama are buddies. They forget that they are from opposing political parties. Obama's union backing plays into the hand of anti-immigrant Grassley.

7. USCIS has all along been allocating 7% across FB EB limit and allocating precious EB visas to countries like S Korea.

Visa office's categorizing of Korea, Mexico and Philippines as ROW by combining FB and EB quotas needs to be looked into. It is a worthwhile action item for us as well as ROW countries. Immigration categories were divided into FB and EB for a reason. FB and EB have their own allocations. When it comes to determining visa usage, CO cannot combine these categories.

qesehmk

08-31-2011, 05:38 PM

Teddy

Could you pls explain what you said below. This will help a lot of people who don't know about it.

Point # 7 also harms ROW countries Mexico & Philippines continue to hog huge numbers from EB3 thereby depriving the rest of the ROW countries. Worst thing is the mixing of illegal and legal immigration via 245I this caused severe damage to EB3-I (It was shuttling in 2001 for 5 years) and even now to EB3 ROW (Hidden Demand), despite the fact that there are human issues with the undocumented this mixing is extremely unfair to all people to have followed the law in every sense.

gcq, i think we agree on most points and others do not have material differences except teh quarterly spillover. Qly spillover if someone wants to do are really simple. Just allcoate extra visas to backlog reduction. And then if EB2ROW or EB1 demand increases .... too bad ... they will have to wait 6 months or so. EB23ICs will ecstatic if their wait times are only a couple of years. Nothing wrong in allocating extra visas on a quarterly basis. It reduces the pain of EB2ICs and possibly even EB3ICs.

Regarding following Q's points listed below.

2. USCIS continues to ignore quarterly spillovers which would directly benefit EB2ICs.
Not sure how VO can implement quarterly spillovers. The year isn't over until it is over. If VO spills the visa over each quarter, it will have no option of correcting it if surprise demand shows up in the last quarter.

gcq

08-31-2011, 05:42 PM

Q,
Quarterly spillover may bring relief to EB-IC, but won't it be against the law to allocate spillover visas through spillover when demand exists for ROW ( EB2 & 1 ) in the same year ?

qesehmk

08-31-2011, 05:47 PM

No because the law allows it.
The same law that allows spillover at the end of the year, says that such spillover should be done quarterly.

Q,
Quarterly spillover may bring relief to EB-IC, but won't it be against the law to allocate spillover visas through spillover when demand exists for ROW ( EB2 & 1 ) in the same year ?

gcq

08-31-2011, 07:53 PM

No because the law allows it.
The same law that allows spillover at the end of the year, says that such spillover should be done quarterly.
By definition spillover is "excess visas" . In this case (as it happened this year) there were less or no spillover visas. When spillover visas itself is absent, how can VO spill it over.

The real problem is that demand could pop up in the last quarter. Lawmakers who wrote the law didn't take this situation into consideration. For them excess visas are there or not there. If additional visas are available, spill it over quarterly. If not, don't spill it over. However reality is somewhere in between these two .

qesehmk

08-31-2011, 08:28 PM

By Jun 2011 88K were used. That's about 29K per quarter. Every quarter there are about 27% (of 140K) avlbl i.e. 38K. So 9K were available for each of first 3 quarters to reduce backlog. This is incremental to any EB2IC quota which lets say was used for any portings and PWMBs etc. So 9K per quarter could've easily be given to EB2IC. But it was not. That's the point I tried to make earlier.

By definition spillover is "excess visas" . In this case (as it happened this year) there were less or no spillover visas. When spillover visas itself is absent, how can VO spill it over.

The real problem is that demand could pop up in the last quarter. Lawmakers who wrote the law didn't take this situation into consideration. For them excess visas are there or not there. If additional visas are available, spill it over quarterly. If not, don't spill it over. However reality is somewhere in between these two .

donvar

09-01-2011, 09:13 AM

GCDespo

09-01-2011, 09:50 AM

Out of all of these point, Can USCIS can be questioned on ignoring the 2nd point? Or do they some other clause to justify that?

Can we sue them on Point 1 since they clearly admitted that they intrepreted the law wrongly and demand that we we should get higher allocation of the visa numbers for EB2IC-From EB2 ROW,until they make up for all the lost visas to EB3 ROW over the years?

qesehmk

09-01-2011, 10:07 AM

This is absolutely possible and must be done. I would suggest those interested form a group on this website and move it forward. Personally I can't devote more time than bringing clarity to GC process.

p.s. - If I were to do it, I would have highlighted this as a way to reduce pain for lots of EB2ICs with the tradeoff that some ROWand EB1 would see increase in wait times upto 6 months. The reason this would be more effective is because VO would otherwise argue that law allows him to do quarterly spillover - not that it is required by law to do Qly spillover.

Out of all of these point, Can USCIS can be questioned on ignoring the 2nd point? Or do they some other clause to justify that?

This one I am not sure and I am less bullish on this one compared to the Qly spillover. But again ... it wouldn't hurt for people to do form a group and try to do something.

p.s. On second thought, very few if any affected parties are now left behind. The only people who could sue USCIS over this are the ones whose dates are prior to 2007. Right?

Can we sue them on Point 1 since they clearly admitted that they intrepreted the law wrongly and demand that we we should get higher allocation of the visa numbers for EB2IC-From EB2 ROW,until they make up for all the lost visas to EB3 ROW over the years?

familyguy

09-01-2011, 10:26 AM

Out of all of these point, Can USCIS can be questioned on ignoring the 2nd point? Or do they some other clause to justify that?

DOS/USCIS is NOT obligated to allocate visas on quarterly basis...

Excerpt from May bulletin:
INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits

You see that 'may be'?

For more info read:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5424.html

gcq

09-01-2011, 12:08 PM

INA 202(a) 5 (http://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/SLB/HTML/SLB/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-29/0-0-0-992.html)

(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.

For this clause to to take effect, "Total number" of visas available for ( EB1+ EB2 + EB3 + EB4 + EB5 ) should exceed the total demand for EB1 through EB5. This is not the case here.

qblogfan

09-01-2011, 12:27 PM

nishant, you are so funny!

Your words are very interesting. I also want to travel freely, but I don't want to lay down on a cloud and float because I am too heavy. :)

many times I have dreamt of this day, and always I visualize myself lying down on a cloud and floating peacefully.

TeddyKoochu

09-01-2011, 12:27 PM

Teddy

Could you pls explain what you said below. This will help a lot of people who don't know about it.

Friends 2 things here. Firstly most of us are aware that South Korea consistently gets more that 2.8K in EB2 because of the definition of retrogressed county being at EB + FB level. For Mexico and Philippines since these countries are classified as retrogressed at EB + FB level their EB utilization is limited to 7% of 140K for EB. Now since these countries do not utilize 2.8K each in EB1 and EB2 in EB3 they are allowed to make up for the deficit. Both these countries have been pulling up 7-8K in EB3 consistently over the last few years. So this is a classic case of the 7% rule hitting the countries that were supposed to benefit by it.
245I is the amnesty for those present illegally before Apr 30 2001. Anyone who could prove that he / she was present before this time illegally (Not Legally) and is not involved in any criminal activity could be eligible for AOS. You can imagine that this demand could be potentially never ending, EB3 - I took 5 years to come out of 2001 and for a major part the PD was magnetically stuck to April 2001. Even now looking at the inventory there is demand from Apr 2001. Additionally Iam not sure if someone claimed that they were in US illegally after Apr 2001 what PD would they have. For EB3 ROW there is a lot of hidden demand at local offices and CP I believe a major part of this could be thanks to 245I people in some cases having later PD's but claiming benefit of that statute. Most of us have nothing against undocumented folks we all understand the American Dream and good quality of life here, however this is a very stark contracts we are being subjected to trial by fire at each and every stage after religiously and rigorously following the law while those who broke the law are being rewarded openly for breaking it, worst thing is that atleast the cap numbers for this should have been separate from the quota that legal people have unfortunately it was mixed up with EB3, so you can imagine how unfair this is and insult to injury.

qesehmk

09-01-2011, 12:34 PM

A great great post Teddy!

For those who may ask why are these people being counted against EB category, the answer is of all the illegal population, there will always be a few who get the college education and then get a job and try to become legal through 245 route. So while not all illegal population will come through EB3, since the population itself is in millions, it is perfectly possible that a few thousand become eligible every year to utilize 245I.

Friends 2 things here. Firstly most of us are aware that South Korea consistently gets more that 2.8K in EB2 because of the definition of retrogressed county being at EB + FB level. For Mexico and Philippines since these countries are classified as retrogressed at EB + FB level their EB utilization is limited to 7% of 140K for EB. Now since these countries do not utilize 2.8K each in EB1 and EB2 in EB3 they are allowed to make up for the deficit. Both these countries have been pulling up 7-8K in EB3 consistently over the last few years. So this is a classic case of the 7% rule hitting the countries that were supposed to benefit by it.
245I is the amnesty for those present illegally before Apr 30 2001. Anyone who could prove that he / she was present before this time illegally (Not Legally) and is not involved in any criminal activity could be eligible for AOS. You can imagine that this demand could be potentially never ending, EB3 - I took 5 years to come out of 2001 and for a major part the PD was magnetically stuck to April 2001. Even now looking at the inventory there is demand from Apr 2001. Additionally Iam not sure if someone claimed that they were in US illegally after Apr 2001 what PD would they have. For EB3 ROW there is a lot of hidden demand at local offices and CP I believe a major part of this could be thanks to 245I people in some cases having later PD's but claiming benefit of that statute. Most of us have nothing against undocumented folks we all understand the American Dream and good quality of life here, however this is a very stark contracts we are being subjected to trial by fire at each and every stage after religiously and rigorously following the law while those who broke the law are being rewarded openly for breaking it, worst thing is that atleast the cap numbers for this should have been separate from the quota that legal people have unfortunately it was mixed up with EB3, so you can imagine how unfair this is and insult to injury.

qblogfan

09-01-2011, 12:37 PM

I think quarter spillover is more humane to the EB immigrants. He did quarter spillover for FB immigrants, but not EB.

Currently EB2 C&I have to wait for the summer time to get GC. If somebody misses the summer, he/she has to wait for 1 extra year! It is not humane!

For example, an Indian EB2 has PD 5/10/2006 and he/she missed the summer of 2010. He/she had to wait for almost 1 year to get his GC because the PD for EB2I stayed on 5/8/2006 for almost 1 year!

It is inhumane! I think quarter spillover is better. It's not too conservative, but it's not too aggressive either! It is a good balance.

Now Mr.CO interprets all the laws based on his own understanding. He does not know what he is doing is causing so much pain to EB C&I.

DOS/USCIS is NOT obligated to allocate visas on quarterly basis...

Excerpt from May bulletin:
INA Section 202(a)(5) provides that if total demand in a calendar quarter will be insufficient to use all available numbers in an Employment preference, then the unused numbers may be made available without regard to the annual per-country limits

You see that 'may be'?

For more info read:
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5424.html

qblogfan

09-01-2011, 12:43 PM

agree with T completely.

I think the immigration system is not fair to the hard working legal EB immigrants. My friends told me that the 245I caused significant delay on labor processing in the first several years of 21st century. My friend had to wait for many years to get labor approved.

The problem is that the government and the officials don't understand the pain we are suffering. They don't understand our situation and nothing has changed. Many people have waitied for many years. This endless waiting is killing all the creativity and motivation of these EB workers. I don't believe people can focus on work during this GC waiting process. For me, I spend more time on Q's forum and mitbbs than work.

Friends 2 things here. Firstly most of us are aware that South Korea consistently gets more that 2.8K in EB2 because of the definition of retrogressed county being at EB + FB level. For Mexico and Philippines since these countries are classified as retrogressed at EB + FB level their EB utilization is limited to 7% of 140K for EB. Now since these countries do not utilize 2.8K each in EB1 and EB2 in EB3 they are allowed to make up for the deficit. Both these countries have been pulling up 7-8K in EB3 consistently over the last few years. So this is a classic case of the 7% rule hitting the countries that were supposed to benefit by it.
245I is the amnesty for those present illegally before Apr 30 2001. Anyone who could prove that he / she was present before this time illegally (Not Legally) and is not involved in any criminal activity could be eligible for AOS. You can imagine that this demand could be potentially never ending, EB3 - I took 5 years to come out of 2001 and for a major part the PD was magnetically stuck to April 2001. Even now looking at the inventory there is demand from Apr 2001. Additionally Iam not sure if someone claimed that they were in US illegally after Apr 2001 what PD would they have. For EB3 ROW there is a lot of hidden demand at local offices and CP I believe a major part of this could be thanks to 245I people in some cases having later PD's but claiming benefit of that statute. Most of us have nothing against undocumented folks we all understand the American Dream and good quality of life here, however this is a very stark contracts we are being subjected to trial by fire at each and every stage after religiously and rigorously following the law while those who broke the law are being rewarded openly for breaking it, worst thing is that atleast the cap numbers for this should have been separate from the quota that legal people have unfortunately it was mixed up with EB3, so you can imagine how unfair this is and insult to injury.

GCDespo

09-01-2011, 12:46 PM

This is absolutely possible and must be done. I would suggest those interested form a group on this website and move it forward. Personally I can't devote more time than bringing clarity to GC process.

p.s. - If I were to do it, I would have highlighted this as a way to reduce pain for lots of EB2ICs with the tradeoff that some ROWand EB1 would see increase in wait times upto 6 months. The reason this would be more effective is because VO would otherwise argue that law allows him to do quarterly spillover - not that it is required by law to do Qly spillover.

This one I am not sure and I am less bullish on this one compared to the Qly spillover. But again ... it wouldn't hurt for people to do form a group and try to do something.

p.s. On second thought, very few if any affected parties are now left behind. The only people who could sue USCIS over this are the ones whose dates are prior to 2007. Right?

The people after 2007 are also effected because of this , If the law was in effective long ago EB2IC would have been current as of now.Or the sitiuation would have been better because all the people would have been out of the queue much earlier

qesehmk

09-01-2011, 12:46 PM

This endless waiting is killing all the creativity and motivation of these EB workers. I don't believe people can focus on work during this GC waiting process. For me, I spend more time on Q's forum and mitbbs than work.

This is so true. I think we have some good people here who have enterprenuerial ambition. Time permitting I intend to start a sub-forum devoted solely to those who have creative minds and feel restricted by this GC nonsense and held back in their careers by crooked managers at work.

qesehmk

09-01-2011, 12:50 PM

I agree. I realized that even as I was typing my earlier post. But was too lazy to type in the caveat. Thanks!

The people after 2007 are also effected because of this , If the law was in effective long ago EB2IC would have been current as of now.Or the sitiuation would have been better because all the people would have been out of the queue much earlier

qblogfan

09-01-2011, 01:00 PM

I agree with you 100%.

One big mistake Mr.Co made was: in 10/1/2005, he created retrogression on EB2 C&I. This was not supposed to happen! He allocated all the spillover visas to EB3from 2005-2007, at the same time controlled EB2 C&I very tightly. He didn't understand the immigration law at all! He mis-interpretted the law and created this EB2 C&I backlog mannully. We were not supposed to have any backlog at all! Until today I really doubt he understands the law.

This mistake alone damaged thousands of Chinese and Indian families! Nobody understands the pain caused by this guy's mistake. He is not paying anything for his mistake and he is eating and sleeping well, but thousands of Chinese and Indian families are paying a heavy price for it!

For following reasons and observed facts:

1. USCIS wrongly interpreted spillover rules until 2007 thus starving EB23ICs.
2. USCIS continues to ignore quarterly spillovers which would directly benefit EB2ICs.
3. After 2007 USCIS cleared all EB1 EB2ROW 485 backlog with unprecedented efficiency. This was especially true for year 2009. Thus preventing any spillover to EB2IC.
4. Then in 2010 when the 485 backlog was reduced, USCIS working with other agencies cleared off record labor backlog for EB2ROW thus preventing significant spillover to EB2IC again.
5. Coming to this year again, USCIS gave advance warning - an unprecedented step - to DoS saying they have 12K in future eligible cases. Thus preventing EB2IC benefit.
6. Additionally EB2I it seems is unfairly targeted for EVC kind of nonsense.
7. USCIS has all along been allocating 7% across FB EB limit and allocating precious EB visas to countries like S Korea.

In all these cases, there is clear bias against IC utilizing more visas. Granted both countries do utilize a lot of visas but then those two countries have a third of world's population between them. So is it a big deal if they consume a lot of visas? But somehow USCIS and DoS it seems favor nationality diversity. I also have thoughts on why ..... but hey I will leave that for people to figure out.

qblogfan

09-01-2011, 01:08 PM

Agree completely.

We should push for this quarter spillover.

Mr.Co already messed up too many things and this is the last thing we can fight for.

Some friends and I are doing a campain to push for quarter spillover. It will benefit both EB2C and EB2I.

This is absolutely possible and must be done. I would suggest those interested form a group on this website and move it forward. Personally I can't devote more time than bringing clarity to GC process.

p.s. - If I were to do it, I would have highlighted this as a way to reduce pain for lots of EB2ICs with the tradeoff that some ROWand EB1 would see increase in wait times upto 6 months. The reason this would be more effective is because VO would otherwise argue that law allows him to do quarterly spillover - not that it is required by law to do Qly spillover.

This one I am not sure and I am less bullish on this one compared to the Qly spillover. But again ... it wouldn't hurt for people to do form a group and try to do something.

p.s. On second thought, very few if any affected parties are now left behind. The only people who could sue USCIS over this are the ones whose dates are prior to 2007. Right?

qblogfan

09-01-2011, 01:32 PM

Comparision of EB and FB visa consumption:

Employment Based:

Q1: total visa usage 24,040, only 17% of annual quota.
Q2: total visa usage 21,944, only 15% of annual quota.
Q3: total visa usage 36,128, only 25% of annual quota.

Family Based:

Q1: total visa usage 62,955, 27.9% of annual quota
Q2: total visa usage 69,730, 30.9% of annual quota
Q3: total visa usage 67,480, 29.9% of annual quota

A quarter spillover will make our life much easier! What Mr.Co is doing is over conservative! Quarter spillover is not conservative, but not too aggressive either!

Currently we are waiting for summer after summer. It is not humane and it causes significant panic!

By Jun 2011 88K were used. That's about 29K per quarter. Every quarter there are about 27% (of 140K) avlbl i.e. 38K. So 9K were available for each of first 3 quarters to reduce backlog. This is incremental to any EB2IC quota which lets say was used for any portings and PWMBs etc. So 9K per quarter could've easily be given to EB2IC. But it was not. That's the point I tried to make earlier.