EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[gc_usa]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf

[gchopeful123]

Looks like VB is not being released today..too late already..sab log apne apne source ko pakadke peeto.. :)

[jackbrown_890]

No movement at all???

[operas]

Its out .. check

[shivarajan]

EB2i: 15APR07

[ssvp22]

no change. OMG!

[neospeed]

main link still down,:

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

[donvar]

No change in dates

Bulletin aa gaya bhai logo.

[mesan123]

No change guys, bulletin is out. the dates for EB2 I/C stays in 15APR07....

[ssvp22]

If someone still interested - http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf . Get back to work folks :(

[chirag.n]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5542.html

[chirag.n]

no change fellas.,.....

[gc_usa]

No change in dates

Bulletin aa gaya bhai logo.

I like this.. I can't stop laughing..

[sha_kus]

Ok DOS you win...

[pdfeb09]

:) Did'nt know about webbrowser..Thanks !
Anyway its of no use to me when I work on the terminal most of the time.. and dont use a regular window manager..

Tri-monitor setup with Awesome window manager (http://awesome.naquadah.org) and plenty of mrxvt terminals is how I work ;)

it worked like a charm .. :) .. too bad the VB didn't do anybody much good ..

[whereismygclost]

where do go from here?

[jackbrown_890]

seems like if there were any spillover visa left, they all went to EB3 instead of EB2 or there were not spillover visas left for EB2 bcuz of PWMB/ROW demand/porting etc.

[gc_usa]

No change in dates

Bulletin aa gaya bhai logo.

I like this.. I can't stop laughing..

[rdsingh79]

i guess nobody predicted that!

[Jonty Rhodes]

No change in EB2I/C but EB3I moved by 5 weeks.

[gchopeful123]

How the freak is there no change in EB2 while EB3 India moved by a month?

[TeddyKoochu]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bul...etin_5542.html
The bulletin is out, this is disappointing beyond words. Everyone had expected some movement atleast but this is really extremely disappointing.
The trend definitely did not look good for EB2 I/C for Aug and it seems that we had ~ 30K SOFAD. All in all this was a great year the last 2 months were definitely disappointing. However good to see that the predictions reached the range fairly accurately.

[whereismygclost]

Gurus,when the dust settles down ..could someone please put this Sep VB in perspective of what we can expect in 2012 ..say Q1/2012,Q2/2012 .....

[10102007]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5542.html

So does this mean no more changes the calendar year? Guru bhais - please shed some light.

[indiasunil]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5542.html

[manipur]

No Change.long wait now till next year

[jackbrown_890]

My first reaction was: WTF happened
thn : drink is not going to work now,, i need some smoke now..
leaving early from work 2nite,,feel free to join anyone

[bleakHope]

Another bulletin...another disappointment :( and the saga continues....

[Spectator]

Very disappointed for everybody waiting.

No notes on movement in EB Categories at all - actually no notes period!

[nishant2200]

Disappointed.

some observations:

1. No Retrogression happened. It did not move back. So folks until 15th April 2007, should definitely be cleared out.
2. All approvable backlog of EB1, EB2 ROW should be cleared, so not carrying forward to next FY.
3. No comments by CO again, very frustrating.

[nishant2200]

My first reaction was: WTF happened
thn : drink is not going to work now,, i need some smoke now..
leaving early from work 2nite,,feel free to join anyone

True. I have stopped, but today will borrow a smoke from co-worker.

[srinivasj]

so disappointing for everybody....its really bothering when they don't provide any notes..everything left to imagination..

[cbpds1]

dont smoke, go have coffee instead dude


True. I have stopped, but today will borrow a smoke from co-worker.

[donvar]

How the freak is there no change in EB2 while EB3 India moved by a month?

Q, Spec, Teddy,Veni
Please enlighten us as to how can we confirm if this movement is due to spillover to EB3. (If that is the case than what is the guarantee that in future we will have spillover to EB2)

[imechanix]

Guru's,

Do you think in next three quarters porting will absorb all the monthly quota & no movement for EB2-I ?

What a disappointment!

[chirag.n]

caffeine = nicotine?


dont smoke, go have coffee instead dude

[leo07]

fkhfuyfukvvliugnbmnbm,bqwetwqrewqreqweqweqwteiipyo io[i[i,mn,m,mn'jhgjhjhjghjjjjjjjj

that's how I feel, if any of you understand

[velugc]

its depressing for every one... only people who would be abt happy with this vb would be all desi company ... they can hold on with consultant for another year...

[imechanix]

fkhfuyfukvvliugnbmnbm,bqwetwqrewqreqweqweqwteiipyo io[i[i,mn,m,mn'jhgjhjhjghjjjjjjjj

that's how i feel, if any of you understand

ditto.........!

[bieber]

They should have just moved the dates
from May to Oct 2006 in July bulletin
from Oct to Mar 2007 in Aug bulletin
from Mar to Apr 2007 in Sept bulletin

we would have all celebrated that just like last year,

[username]

there is no disappointment only our expectation did not went through...

[chirag.n]

weqfrjwerfpewqjf[pewjfkp[jfsdpfjsdp[jfsdpjfsdfmsdl;fmjk[sasdojf[jf as's'lfmksasdp['ofjkasdf[joqfas''j;fasp'jfas'jfa'jklfsdjfssojfdpsdjfap[jf'sja;';fjksdfoaj


fkhfuyfukvvliugnbmnbm,bqwetwqrewqreqweqweqwteiipyo io[i[i,mn,m,mn'jhgjhjhjghjjjjjjjj

that's how I feel, if any of you understand

[pch053]

Disappointed.

some observations:

1. No Retrogression happened. It did not move back. So folks until 15th April 2007, should definitely be cleared out.
2. All approvable backlog of EB1, EB2 ROW should be cleared, so not carrying forward to next FY.
3. No comments by CO again, very frustrating.
Nishnt,
I think yours is a very good summary amidst the major disappointment. For next years PD movement calculation, we will probably can consider that most PDs up to April 15 will be cleared and also most EB1 and EB2-ROW PDs will be cleared by Sep'11. So, for Eb1 and EB2-ROW, we can consider a steady flow as opposed to consider 15 months worth of application in a year. Also, now I think the chances of BTM is surely slim until next April - May. Not sure, whether dates will move at all from 15th April'07 until April-May'12. Any thoughts on this?

[pch053]

They should have just moved the dates
from May to Oct 2006 in July bulletin
from Oct to Mar 2007 in Aug bulletin
from Mar to Apr 2007 in Sept bulletin

we would have all celebrated that just like last year,
Very well said! I think around April'11, most of us would have considered the PD movement up to 15th April'07, very good progress. Probably, our expectation went up too much!

[rahil1]

so diappointed... Is the date not going to move till next year??? I am 3 weeks away...

[srinivasj]

its depressing for every one... only people who would be abt happy with this vb would be all desi company ... they can hold on with consultant for another year... just not desi companies..its about all companies who hold employees hostage around this GC mess..

[superdesi2100]

We used to call this KLPD in college days. Those who know what KLPD means may chuckle. Those who don't - sorry I cannot say what it means in this forum.

[10102007]

so diappointed... Is the date not going to move till next year??? I am 3 weeks away...

Feel sorry for you dude. But don't worry - next year you will be one among the first batch of happy greeners.

[kolugc]

How about DK Bose???? :-)


We used to call this KLPD in college days. Those who know what KLPD means may chuckle. Those who don't - sorry I cannot say what it means in this forum.

[sc09876]

Well, I am 5 days away. All our Guru's predictions were about right when they projected Jan 2007 as 100%, March 2007 as 50-70% and anything beyond is less likely. Every one got carried away with the movement in June bulletin. That August did not yield much and then Sept did not yield anything is a disappointment from what we read into June bulletin, not from where the calculations started for the year.

It is less disappointing if you just think the bulletins were advanced a month..June should actually have been July and so on...

[ChampU]

The song remains the same.. Nose to the grindstone..

[whereismygclost]

i am 5.5 months and still it is very disappointing ..i can feel ur pain ... hopefully u will be green soon ....

Very well said! I think around April'11, most of us would have considered the PD movement up to 15th April'07, very good progress. Probably, our expectation went up too much!

[indiasunil]

All should be happy with NO Retro.. We will achieve at some point for sure.. Next year bulletins will give good movement early. Happy holidays and enjoy..

[whereismygclost]

i am 5.5 months and still it is very disappointing ..i can feel ur pain ... hopefully u will be green soon ....

so diappointed... Is the date not going to move till next year??? I am 3 weeks away...

[10102007]

Now that the VB is out I'll get back to sulking. I'll get back to worrying about everything.

But thanks to all those who made some highly optimistic predictions. Atleast for a while, you had us dreaming.

[qblogfan]

comfort. it's so disappointing!

I can't believe this country:

people who have Phd/MS degrees have to wait for 5 or more years for GC.
people who seek asylum only need to wait for 1 year for GC
people who can win GC lottery obtain GC immediately

this is not a fair system and they are going to the wrong direction little by little.


Now that the VB is out I'll get back to sulking. I'll get back to worrying about everything.

But thanks to all those who made some highly optimistic predictions. Atleast for a while, you had us dreaming.

[Spectator]

Q, Spec, Teddy,Veni
Please enlighten us as to how can we confirm if this movement is due to spillover to EB3. (If that is the case than what is the guarantee that in future we will have spillover to EB2)donvar,

I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that EB3-I has received spillover. In fact it is highly unlikely, since clearly there are other EB2-IC cases that could have used the visas.

Apart from it not conforming to the law, the extra numbers can equally have been made available by higher than anticipated porting of cases with very early PDs.

That said, I will admit to being extremely surprised by the EB3-I movement in the last 2 months.

[imechanix]

Qs. 1: If next year SOFAD is 15K or more then at what time will BTM happen. They need atleast 3-6 months to make application documentarily qualified. Or they will risk wasting visas!

Qs. 2: It was predicted we may get atleast 2K SOFAD. Are they planning to waste the visas this fiscal year.

[cbpds1]

CO will take the life out of everyone and then give them the GC so that they will not feel happy when they do receive the GC !!


Now that the VB is out I'll get back to sulking. I'll get back to worrying about everything.

But thanks to all those who made some highly optimistic predictions. Atleast for a while, you had us dreaming.

[Dojoapril]

Gosh...I am stuck with a PD of 4/18, are we gonna see any movement in future bulletins or are we stuck till April-May nex year...So Cruel....

[qesehmk]

Wow .... i step out for a chick-a-fill and DoS releases this!!!

Very disappointing but Props to Nishant for pointing out correctly the silver line behind this - No EB1 EB2ROW backlog next year!

Basically Apr 07 is SFM ... there shouldn't be retro. But in hindsight it seems they are clearing as much EB1 EB2ROW as possible. Please see 5-7 pages back I had pointed this to Teddy. But I hoped (against the data point obviously now) that it was a spurious trend. But it seems it is not.

Honestly this throws any talk of even a BTM into quite a spin. I don't see under what pretext DoS can allow a BTM to happen. And if they wait till May 2007 then whats going to happen is they will waste visas. So a bit perplexed. Probably we will establish better clarity in the next few days.

On the other hand EB3I movement tell you that porting is only 4K at best. The proof?

Sep 2010 Visa bulletin date for EB2I = Jan 2002
Sep 2011 Visa bulletin date for EB2I = Sep 2002

The difference in visas = 5K.
Less 2.8K allocation = 2.2K in EB2I porting
Assume 1.8K porting for rest of world including china

So as we have been consistently saying total porting is not more than 4K.


i guess nobody predicted that!
touche!


Q, Spec, Teddy,Veni
Please enlighten us as to how can we confirm if this movement is due to spillover to EB3. (If that is the case than what is the guarantee that in future we will have spillover to EB2)
This has nothing to do with EB3 spillover. This has everything to do with EB1 andEB2ROW.


We used to call this KLPD in college days. Those who know what KLPD means may chuckle. Those who don't - sorry I cannot say what it means in this forum.
KLPD is very apt indeed. The funny thing is ... even girls used to say that without knowing what it was!

[TeddyKoochu]

They should have just moved the dates
from May to Oct 2006 in July bulletin
from Oct to Mar 2007 in Aug bulletin
from Mar to Apr 2007 in Sept bulletin

we would have all celebrated that just like last year,

Very well said ! This year the fireworks came earlier, followed by emergency brakes and then complete silence.

[03May07]

16th april07 bhai (I forgot the screen name) better luck next time.

Personally, I was more disappointed with Aug VB than Sep VB.

[gcseeker]

It is disappointing to say the least.Just wanted to cheer up folks

1.Please be careful about your jobs and hold on to them (especially with the economic environment) untill next spillover season.
2.Let us hope the spillover season starts early ( April 2012).
3.Dont put much into the stock market untill it bottoms out completely.This way you reduce one stress factor.
4.People with Post Aug 2007 PD's might be better off accepting promotions and getting back in line....Since who knows what effects will predominate next year and ultimately it might be end of 2012 or early 2013 before they get their Gc's.

Personally I am convinced to take that risk (mine is Nov 2007 PD) and I have already wasted a lot of my opportunities waiting for the damn date to become current.

[ssvp22]

Wow .... i step out for a chick-a-fill and DoS releases this!!!
Q are you working in Charlotte downtown? If yes, lets meet sometime

[rahil1]

Gosh...I am stuck with a PD of 4/18, are we gonna see any movement in future bulletins or are we stuck till April-May nex year...So Cruel....

I think we are stuck till next year...

[mesan123]

This whole year data movement if we take was not good compared to 2010. and CO not giving no details in Aug & Sep bulletin really gives us no scope in understanding what USCIS is assuming. Any way GURU's who are waiting(leo, spec,nishant2000, soggadu.and otehr gurus)...dont loose your heart...will all this turmoils GC dream for everyone is becoming like hoping for something impossible to happen ..

[harick]

and now........ the winner of ....... best prediction award for the month of September..........is ????????? (oh..oh... it has been cancelled due to non availability of VISA numbers)



Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007 (as pointed earlier, didn't Q say 1st week of July, i.e. 8th July?)
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007
skpanda -------- CURRENT
meso129--------Mar 1 2008

[bieber]

Very well said ! This year the fireworks came earlier, followed by emergency brakes and then complete silence.

Teddy brother, I feel your pain and admire your balance

next year for sure [hug]

[TeddyKoochu]

Qs. 1: If next year SOFAD is 15K or more then at what time will BTM happen. They need atleast 3-6 months to make application documentarily qualified. Or they will risk wasting visas!

Qs. 2: It was predicted we may get atleast 2K SOFAD. Are they planning to waste the visas this fiscal year.

SOFAD that includes the annual cap as well 15HK may not be much at all. Following is the rough demand till 01-AUG-2007 a) Preadjudicated Cases 8K b) Porting that will keep coming gradually over the year 6K c) PWMB - 4K.
So 15K SOFAD may just barely clear all backlog till 01-AUG-2007 but IMHO its a very conservative figure. Looks like Aug & Sep will be dedicated to clearing the EB2 ROW and EB1 backlogs which may make next year a little bit more comfortable.
Unfortunately for the next 6 months we may not see any movement at all it definitely hurts those who missed by a few days. Good luck to all, it’s back to the drawing board again now for next year.


Teddy brother, I feel your pain and admire your balance

next year for sure [hug]

Thanks for your kind words, I just hope its finally next year now, Iam optimistic about it :) it cannot be any later now.

[grnwtg]

Now that the VB is out I'll get back to sulking. I'll get back to worrying about everything.

But thanks to all those who made some highly optimistic predictions. Atleast for a while, you had us dreaming.

Disgusting but no words or thoughts. Need to plan India trip some time. Getting irritated about this country first time.
any few cheers as DOW is up 429 thought i am not up by 10% which i lost yesterday.

Common guys... back to work, will try to understand more number crunching as we have lot of time to analyze.
I am not sure how its different from last year when we did not get many eb1 spill over.. could not corelated to last year.

[nishant2200]

One observation: Let's consider that when we say "they are wasting visas by not doing BTM at right moment", is incorrect. The visas can always be given to EB3 ROW. They did not go waste then. EB2 I/C, we, are not center of universe to DOS/USCIS/VO/CO/WH, no one cares specifically for us. To not be disappointed, we need to understand this. This is my opinion. I think it's not the right time to say this, as today everyone, including me, is disappointed. But I did want to make this thought of mine shared.

[neospeed]

Teddy initial prediction came out true. Nice Job teddy. We need to keep focus on numbers not emotions. I know its very hard (:

Teddy's initial prediction:
================================================== ============
If we extrapolate the 33K SOFAD onto the table above then the expected PD movement will be around 15th Feb 2007. There maybe some buffer around this date so the range will be between 01-FEB-2007 and 01-APR-2007.
================================================== ==============

[Spectator]

Some first thoughts.

Teddy, in particular, did try to warn about a small movement.

If we take the reports from mitbbs as valid, there were 19k visas left to cover all approvals in August/September (or alternatively the 19k didn't include the August movement for EB2-IC).

EB2-IC used up about 2.5k for movement in the August VB.
At the end of July, EB3 still appeared to need 5-6k to reach the 40k limit.
If we say EB1 and EB2-ROW each needed 2k per month, that is another 8k (in fact EB1 has been running slightly hotter than that).

That leaves 2.5k left for any movement in EB4/EB5 over 2 months or any acceleration in other Categories or for spillover. It would be an additional 2.5k if the 19k did not include the August use for EB2-IC.

It appears it was all too easy to use up the balance, leaving nothing for EB2-IC in September.

I don't see clearing EB1/EB2-ROW as a pre-requisite for no movement - it's more a case of not slowing it down.

[gcseeker]

Nishant

Nice observation and yes that helps digest the pain better. I always beleive CO will find any way to justify any movement...forward ,backward,stuck and spillover into any visa category.It is totally left to the whim and fancy of CO/DOS.We just have to hope for better results next spillover season.



One observation: Let's consider that when we say "they are wasting visas by not doing BTM at right moment", is incorrect. The visas can always be given to EB3 ROW. They did not go waste then. EB2 I/C, we, are not center of universe to DOS/USCIS/VO/CO/WH, no one cares specifically for us. To not be disappointed, we need to understand this. This is my opinion. I think it's not the right time to say this, as today everyone, including me, is disappointed. But I did want to make this thought of mine shared.

[soggadu]

One observation: Let's consider that when we say "they are wasting visas by not doing BTM at right moment", is incorrect. The visas can always be given to EB3 ROW. They did not go waste then. EB2 I/C, we, are not center of universe to DOS/USCIS/VO/CO/WH, no one cares specifically for us. To not be disappointed, we need to understand this. This is my opinion. I think it's not the right time to say this, as today everyone, including me, is disappointed. But I did want to make this thought of mine shared.

First of all Behes ki aankh...

Secondly... doesnt Eb2 on the whole need to be current to provide any kind of spilover to any category of EB3?

..a moment of silence... it's like miandad's six off chetan all again... but i am sure we are going to bounce back...

I feel we are going to see the train moving from oct with SFM...

[nishant2200]

First of all Behes ki aankh...

Secondly... doesnt Eb2 on the whole need to be current to provide any kind of spilover to any category of EB3?

Well they come to the tipping point, see only 3 months left, last quarter, they say "ooops", and make EB2 current, but still at least for that FY, most of the leftover goes to EB3 ROW. Right.

[10102007]

So does this mean every year it's going to advance by 1 year? That gives a simple formula :
Year of PD + 5 years = GC year +/- 6 months

[evoori]

I Strongly believe it is coz of SA in EB3.. EB2IC didn't loose anything to EB3..


donvar,

I wouldn't jump to the conclusion that EB3-I has received spillover. In fact it is highly unlikely, since clearly there are other EB2-IC cases that could have used the visas.

Apart from it not conforming to the law, the extra numbers can equally have been made available by higher than anticipated porting of cases with very early PDs.

That said, I will admit to being extremely surprised by the EB3-I movement in the last 2 months.

[TeddyKoochu]

It is disappointing to say the least.Just wanted to cheer up folks

1.Please be careful about your jobs and hold on to them (especially with the economic environment) untill next spillover season.
2.Let us hope the spillover season starts early ( April 2012).
3.Dont put much into the stock market untill it bottoms out completely.This way you reduce one stress factor.
4.People with Post Aug 2007 PD's might be better off accepting promotions and getting back in line....Since who knows what effects will predominate next year and ultimately it might be end of 2012 or early 2013 before they get their Gc's.

Personally I am convinced to take that risk (mine is Nov 2007 PD) and I have already wasted a lot of my opportunities waiting for the damn date to become current.

I completely agree with 1), 2) & 3). On 4) there should be some caution getting I140 approved in the past and now may not be the same thing.


Disappointed.

some observations:

1. No Retrogression happened. It did not move back. So folks until 15th April 2007, should definitely be cleared out.
2. All approvable backlog of EB1, EB2 ROW should be cleared, so not carrying forward to next FY.
3. No comments by CO again, very frustrating.

Great Post Nishant!


comfort. it's so disappointing!

I can't believe this country:

people who have Phd/MS degrees have to wait for 5 or more years for GC.
people who seek asylum only need to wait for 1 year for GC
people who can win GC lottery obtain GC immediately

this is not a fair system and they are going to the wrong direction little by little.

Well said, while we feel for all there are human issues on all sides but the way people from retrogressed countries are suffering due to wait is unfair. Right now look at all PWMB's it will take us full 5 years to get EAD / AP. The situation for EB3 for all countries is bad in their own unique way. Pre 2007 folks are stuck with EAD / AP only with dates crawling ROW folks included, post 2007 mostly people are trying to file in EB2.

[leo07]

you'd get out next month. Don't worry. We will see steady movement starting October, at least by a week or two with each VB. Good Luck.

Gosh...I am stuck with a PD of 4/18, are we gonna see any movement in future bulletins or are we stuck till April-May nex year...So Cruel....

[qblogfan]

agree 100%.

Mr.CO always finds different excuses to justify what he does.

the truth is that nobody is monitoring what he does.

he does not give a damn to EB immigrants at all.

While we are suffering, he is still eating/sleeping/shitting very well.

excuse my language. that's the truth.


Nishant

Nice observation and yes that helps digest the pain better. I always beleive CO will find any way to justify any movement...forward ,backward,stuck and spillover into any visa category.It is totally left to the whim and fancy of CO/DOS.We just have to hope for better results next spillover season.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Extremely disappointing visa bulletin with dates not moving at all for EB2IC. I am more frustrated because there is no clarity or transparency offered at all on part of the USCIS or DOS. Bulletin after bulletin, the saga of endless waiting continues.

I am going to quote a world famous unknown personality who said on some other forum:

This whole prediction game is like predicting the number of beans in a jar - except in this case there is a whole other jar that exists but no one knows how many beans are in there. So no matter how accurate your prediction of the number of beans in the visible jar, you will always be wrong since there is a hidden jar that we don't even see.


I rest my case. USCIS wins.

[Sandeep2011]

One observation: Let's consider that when we say "they are wasting visas by not doing BTM at right moment", is incorrect. The visas can always be given to EB3 ROW. They did not go waste then. EB2 I/C, we, are not center of universe to DOS/USCIS/VO/CO/WH, no one cares specifically for us. To not be disappointed, we need to understand this. This is my opinion. I think it's not the right time to say this, as today everyone, including me, is disappointed. But I did want to make this thought of mine shared.

Nishant, we can always count on you to bring a very practical perspective. Though massively disappointed, i think we need to continue to focus on what we need to do to be successful in whatever we are pursuing.

On a lighter note - one of my colleagues has PD of 4/21/2007 and we are working on the same project. He had been preparing all the documents needed to file 485 for last couple of weeks. We were in a client meeting and all of a sudden he blurts out "What the f***", every one is looking at him quizzically as it was totally inappropriate. Only after the meeting we realized that he was checking visa bulletin during the meeting and he was reacting to visa bulletin and not to what client team was saying :-) I need to go and explain this to program manager now :-)

[qesehmk]

Gosh...I am stuck with a PD of 4/18, are we gonna see any movement in future bulletins or are we stuck till April-May nex year...So Cruel....
This is cruel. But you should be current any month now.


It is disappointing to say the least.Just wanted to cheer up folks

1.Please be careful about your jobs and hold on to them (especially with the economic environment) untill next spillover season.
2.Let us hope the spillover season starts early ( April 2012).
3.Dont put much into the stock market untill it bottoms out completely.This way you reduce one stress factor.
4.People with Post Aug 2007 PD's might be better off accepting promotions and getting back in line....Since who knows what effects will predominate next year and ultimately it might be end of 2012 or early 2013 before they get their Gc's.

Personally I am convinced to take that risk (mine is Nov 2007 PD) and I have already wasted a lot of my opportunities waiting for the damn date to become current.
gcseeker great advice. I especially strongly recommend 3 & 4 on your list.


Q are you working in Charlotte downtown? If yes, lets meet sometime
Would've liked to. I belong to the state that has the distinct honor of passing SB1070 ;) Those from here wouldn't be a bad idea to get together for a drink. We will ask Jack Brown to send us whatever he is going to smoke tonight :)


and now........ the winner of ....... best prediction award for the month of September..........is ????????? (oh..oh... it has been cancelled due to non availability of VISA numbers)
Harick ... thanks .. we need this tonight !!

As per next year .... I would bet that the SOFAD next year should be similar to what we will see this year unless Kazarian situation changes.

[tanu_75]

agree 100%.

Mr.CO always finds different excuses to justify what he does.

the truth is that nobody is monitoring what he does.

he does not give a damn to EB immigrants at all.

While we are suffering, he is still eating/sleeping/shitting very well.

excuse my language. that's the truth.

Another example of the crap Washington DC is putting people through. CO could have easily moved the dates (BTM), taken a year to clean up the cases, and keep them ready by April.

[kd2008]

Wow .... i step out for a chick-a-fill and DoS releases this!!!

Very disappointing but Props to Nishant for pointing out correctly the silver line behind this - No EB1 EB2ROW backlog next year!

Basically Apr 07 is SFM ... there shouldn't be retro. But in hindsight it seems they are clearing as much EB1 EB2ROW as possible. Please see 5-7 pages back I had pointed this to Teddy. But I hoped (against the data point obviously now) that it was a spurious trend. But it seems it is not.

Honestly this throws any talk of even a BTM into quite a spin. I don't see under what pretext DoS can allow a BTM to happen. And if they wait till May 2007 then whats going to happen is they will waste visas. So a bit perplexed. Probably we will establish better clarity in the next few days.

On the other hand EB3I movement tell you that porting is only 4K at best. The proof?

Sep 2010 Visa bulletin date for EB2I = Jan 2002
Sep 2011 Visa bulletin date for EB2I = Sep 2002

The difference in visas = 5K.
Less 2.8K allocation = 2.2K in EB2I porting
Assume 1.8K porting for rest of world including china

So as we have been consistently saying total porting is not more than 4K.


touche!


This has nothing to do with EB3 spillover. This has everything to do with EB1 andEB2ROW.


KLPD is very apt indeed. The funny thing is ... even girls used to say that without knowing what it was!

Q, I have bolded what you said. Your argument is incorrect. What it means is: out of the total porting numbers, 2.2K were between Jan 2002 and Sept 2002. The rest were between Sept 2002 and Apr 2007. We really don't yet know how many in total, but a rough estimation may be made by adding the decrease in demand data of EB3-I between Sept 2002 and Apr 2007 and the 2.2K.

[qblogfan]

Yes, agree.

The reason why he is not doing BTM is that he does not care at all........

BTM does not make any difference to his life, he is still eating/sleeping/shitting very well everyday.

Thousands of families are on the edge because of his action, but he just does not care........

We have been stuck to this deep hole for too long. Endless waiting is killing all these talented people. I just don't believe people can focus on work while being treated like shit by DOS/USCIS.



Another example of the crap Washington DC is putting people through. CO could have easily moved the dates (BTM), taken a year to clean up the cases, and keep them ready by April.

[stillanoptimist]

Well said. While we get into the details and intricacies in the calculations here, I feel the Visa Office/CO just think in broad strokes and decide on what is going to be the easiest for the agencies to cope with. Hence, on hindsight, the expectations for "making PD current" etc seem over the top now.
legislative change is the only way out. While our friends who are PWMB or PDs in 2007 can wait for the VB to move one week every month for most of next fiscal year, folks like me with PDs in 2008 (we know there huge density of applications the whole of 2008) and beyond are doomed to wait at the mercy of spillovers.



comfort. it's so disappointing!

I can't believe this country:

people who have Phd/MS degrees have to wait for 5 or more years for GC.
people who seek asylum only need to wait for 1 year for GC
people who can win GC lottery obtain GC immediately

this is not a fair system and they are going to the wrong direction little by little.

[qesehmk]

KD the whole argument is not incorrect. But I agree that it can be made more accurate if we include post 2002 porting cases.

We will know exact number when we see teh Oct 2011 inventory and then compare with Oct 2010.


Q, I have bolded what you said. Your argument is incorrect. What it means is: out of the total porting numbers, 2.2K were between Jan 2002 and Sept 2002. The rest were between Sept 2002 and Apr 2007. We really don't yet know how many in total, but a rough estimation may be made by adding the decrease in demand data of EB3-I between Sept 2002 and Apr 2007 and the 2.2K.

[TeddyKoochu]

agree 100%.

Mr.CO always finds different excuses to justify what he does.

the truth is that nobody is monitoring what he does.

he does not give a damn to EB immigrants at all.

While we are suffering, he is still eating/sleeping/shitting very well.

excuse my language. that's the truth.

Actually if you look at this another way CO is just the administrator his job is to ensure that the allocations are met. Unfortunately the system is so complex with too many rules that intersect each other his job is tough. At the end of the day the problem is that the numbers are way to less. We are all SOFAD dependent in 2009 it was 10K, in 2010 it was 26K now in 2011 its 30K plus, unfortunately it’s time for all of us to set realistic expectations. The dream run has raised expectations to a very high level.

[qesehmk]

I agree w Teddy. CO is trying to do his job best. His hands are tied by the laws and the numbers available.


Actually if you look at this another way CO is just the administrator his job is to ensure that the allocations are met. Unfortunately the system is so complex with too many rules that intersect each other his job is tough. At the end of the day the problem is that the numbers are way to less. We are all SOFAD dependent in 2009 it was 10K, in 2010 it was 26K now in 2011 its 30K plus, unfortunately it’s time for all of us to set realistic expectations. The dream run has raised expectations to a very high level.

[Osaka001]

As every one predicted the Labor clearance caused the ROW to utilize more visas, otherwise they would spilled over to I/C. In May they did not see I-140 demand, which kicked in June/July onwards, then they stopped moving dates.

Only hope for the year is a bill that removes country limit on EB category. Hope for the best.

[neospeed]

ok guys lets crunch some data for coming year. We might get uscis inventory pretty soon.

[TeddyKoochu]

KD the whole argument is not incorrect. But I agree that it can be made more accurate if we include post 2002 porting cases.

We will know exact number when we see teh Oct 2011 inventory and then compare with Oct 2010.

As the inventory was updated in May with the Local office demand I think the only way would be to wait for the next one in October and then extrapolate to a year. Otherwise you can assume that EB3 I itself had atleast 2K LO demand that makes porting 6K. Let me know if Iam missing something.

[nishant2200]

Guys, what are the various data reports we are expecting in upcoming months now, that we should watch out for. So that we can start the analysis again.

[pch053]

I think. to calculate EB3->EB2 porting, we also need to consider CP/district office cases that never showed up in the inventory but I am not sure, how significant is this one.

[qesehmk]

Another way to do it would be to look at EB2 actual approvals and then comparing that with Oct 2010 inventory.

I know either approachs will have some distortion due to LO cases. But may be we can triangulate using 2 -3 different methods.


As the inventory was updated in May with the Local office demand I think the only way would be to wait for the next one in October and then extrapolate to a year. Otherwise you can assume that EB3 I itself had atleast 2K LO demand that makes porting 6K. Let me know if Iam missing something.

[cbpds1]

why not send this mail to the Prez this and he will use it in his campaign speech to gain emotional votes


Yes, agree.

The reason why he is not doing BTM is that he does not care at all........

BTM does not make any difference to his life, he is still eating/sleeping/shitting very well everyday.

Thousands of families are on the edge because of his action, but he just does not care........

We have been stuck to this deep hole for too long. Endless waiting is killing all these talented people. I just don't believe people can focus on work while being treated like shit by DOS/USCIS.

[leo07]

qblogfan,

I understand your pain, trust me it'll be 14 years tomorrow, I really understand what you are talking about.

At the end of the day, CO, as I see is doing much better job than his predecessors. He is doing his best to not waste visa numbers, and wiggle enough room for CI categories with in his bounds.

Like Teddy and Others mentioned, our expectations were high and the information/reasoning provided is not enough to convince either forward movement/no-movement.

Hang in there mate, I really wish you well. If you see the difference between yesterday-today-tomorrow is just our 'expectations'.

Best!




Yes, agree.

The reason why he is not doing BTM is that he does not care at all........

BTM does not make any difference to his life, he is still eating/sleeping/shitting very well everyday.

Thousands of families are on the edge because of his action, but he just does not care........

We have been stuck to this deep hole for too long. Endless waiting is killing all these talented people. I just don't believe people can focus on work while being treated like shit by DOS/USCIS.

[srivi2007]

As the inventory was updated in May with the Local office demand I think the only way would be to wait for the next one in October and then extrapolate to a year. Otherwise you can assume that EB3 I itself had atleast 2K LO demand that makes porting 6K. Let me know if Iam missing something.

Teddy/Q/Spec/Veni,

Do you think there wont be any movements in the coming bulletins till next spill over season which is pretty much May 2012. Or there is chance of one or more weeks movements in each bulletin.

[bieber]

How do we know 2011 number is 30K + ?

Shouldn't it lesser than 30K ?

Count between Apr 2007 and May 2006 is ~26k, porting is atleast 4k

[neospeed]

Count between Apr 2007 and May 2006 is ~26k, porting is atleast 4k

We need to add PWMB also

[jackbrown_890]

This is cruel. But you should be current any month now.


gcseeker great advice. I especially strongly recommend 3 & 4 on your list.


Would've liked to. I belong to the state that has the distinct honor of passing SB1070 ;) Those from here wouldn't be a bad idea to get together for a drink. We will ask Jack Brown to send us whatever he is going to smoke tonight :)


Harick ... thanks .. we need this tonight !!

As per next year .... I would bet that the SOFAD next year should be similar to what we will see this year unless Kazarian situation changes.

You know what i am going to smoke...more thn welcome to join..
I have moved to a state where we have Desi woman as a governor but also have n honor of passing something similar to SB1070 and on top of that some of the TOP dumb state legislators are talking about having border security at state border. Are u Efing kidding me? Are they Efing HIGH? We border GA,NC and Atlantic Ocean. What kind of border security are they talking about?
anyways, jokes aside. It is good that VB didn't retro today. But i was hoping we will have enough movement to have total of 12 months movement for FY year 2011. It was little short. If it averages less thn a year for next few years, GC wait for EB2 will someday reach to EB3 levels.

[bieber]

We need to add PWMB also

that 26k is almost till the end of april and assumed that will take care of PWMB and 90% approval rate

[qblogfan]

thanks for your kind words!

I just feel our EB immigrants are not being treated well.

I am upset because he should have BTMed in this summer, but he didn't.

I seriously doubt it would cause him any trouble if he had BTMed.

People with PD after July 2007 have been waiting for 4 years, how much longer should these people wait?

EB2 should be mad as hell!


qblogfan,

I understand your pain, trust me it'll be 14 years tomorrow, I really understand what you are talking about.

At the end of the day, CO, as I see is doing much better job than his predecessors. He is doing his best to not waste visa numbers, and wiggle enough room for CI categories with in his bounds.

Like Teddy and Others mentioned, our expectations were high and the information/reasoning provided is not enough to convince either forward movement/no-movement.

Hang in there mate, I really wish you well. If you see the difference between yesterday-today-tomorrow is just our 'expectations'.

Best!

[qblogfan]

One Chinese guy cotacted Mr.CO for his hold of EB2 and no explanation in VB, he replied:

I attempt to provide guidance regarding future visa
availability on a quarterly basis, and whenever I anticipate a significant
change. Attempting to make longer range projections is extremely unwise
given the potential changes in demand which can occur at any time. Recent
changes in USCIS processing of Employment cases is a great example.
Despite their trend of a somewhat low/stable rate of non China/India EB1 and
EB2 processing during the first 8+ months, large amounts of demand have
suddenly appeared and prevented movement of the EB2 date. Such a large rate
demand was completely unexpected an unannounced until it began to appear.

It's just like shit as always. He always finds excuses for his decision. Nothing new, just full of bull shit again!


thanks for your kind words!

I just feel our EB immigrants are not being treated well.

I am upset because he should have BTMed in this summer, but he didn't.

I seriously doubt it would cause him any trouble if he had BTMed.

People with PD after July 2007 have been waiting for 4 years, how much longer should these people wait?

EB2 should be mad as hell!

[qesehmk]

Usually there would be max 1-2 weeks once a while. But the major movement won't be until May-Jun onwards 2012.

Except however this year in unusual that they need to build pipeline if SOFAD is going to be more than 16-18K next year. So I would expect a good movement by Q1 2012 ie. calendar year.


Teddy/Q/Spec/Veni,
Do you think there wont be any movements in the coming bulletins till next spill over season which is pretty much May 2012. Or there is chance of one or more weeks movements in each bulletin.


qblogfan,I understand your pain, trust me it'll be 14 years tomorrow,
Leo a few more years and you can start calling yourself "Native Indian"!! Jokes Apart ... but i hope your case sorts out soon in case your kids are going to become college age anytime soon.

[velugc]

again its tough luck for pwmb.. this is range of people who's wounds are bruised all the time...hope 2012 brings in good news...

[bieber]

I attempt to provide guidance regarding future visa
availability on a quarterly basis, and whenever I anticipate a significant
change. Attempting to make longer range projections is extremely unwise
given the potential changes in demand which can occur at any time. Recent
changes in USCIS processing of Employment cases is a great example.
Despite their trend of a somewhat low/stable rate of non China/India EB1 and
EB2 processing during the first 8+ months, large amounts of demand have
suddenly appeared and prevented movement of the EB2 date. Such a large rate
demand was completely unexpected an unannounced until it began to appear.



looks like Q's take is spot on, EB1 and EB2-Row took over the remaining numbers and may be this is good for next year SOFAD

[cbpds1]

can that person ask CO why there was no BTM when it wud be prudent to do so this time?


One Chinese guy cotacted Mr.CO for his hold of EB2 and no explanation in VB, he replied:

I attempt to provide guidance regarding future visa
availability on a quarterly basis, and whenever I anticipate a significant
change. Attempting to make longer range projections is extremely unwise
given the potential changes in demand which can occur at any time. Recent
changes in USCIS processing of Employment cases is a great example.
Despite their trend of a somewhat low/stable rate of non China/India EB1 and
EB2 processing during the first 8+ months, large amounts of demand have
suddenly appeared and prevented movement of the EB2 date. Such a large rate
demand was completely unexpected an unannounced until it began to appear.

It's just like shit as always. He always finds excuses for his decision. Nothing new, just full of bull shit again!

[nishant2200]

A preliminary rough analysis for FY 2012.

8000 - demand data
4000 - PWMB hidden demand
6000 - Porting demand

They are kind of already beginning with above 18k demand in FY 2012, just moving dates back to July 2007 threshold would yield them 12k demand as well as the porting is a throughout the year consistent phenomena.

Let’s assume the 5k for EB2 I/C negates the Porting to be just 1000.

So we can say they are starting with 13k hidden/known/will arise demand.

Let's say each month later on, till Q3 2008 has almost 2500 demand each month.

Half August 2007 : 1250
Each month then on till late 2008 : 2500

SO -- Dates
-- ------
13k -- 15th August 2007
14.25k -- 1st Sep 2007
17k -- 8th Oct 2007
19.5k -- 8th Nov 2007
20k -- 15th Nov 2007
22k -- 8th Dec 2007
24.5k -- 8st Jan 2008
27k -- 8th Feb 2008
29.5k -- 8th March 2008
30k -- 15th March 2008

Positives:
- All EB2 I/C till 15th April 2007 accounted for.
- No 15/12 demand for EB1, EB2 ROW coming into FY 2012, backlog reduced as much as they could, so backlog is not a concern in FY 2012
- EB2 ROW shall continue to remain current

Puzzles:
- what will be patterns of EB1, EB2 ROW, EB5
- will CO consider doing quarterly SO in conjunction with SFM
- is BTM in favor at all
- what will be strategy of CO in terms of SFM, UFM, BTM, and so on to have the pipeline functioning properly

Guys, let me know if something is wrong, or can be better factored in.

[nishant2200]

qbf, actually this answer by CO explains very well. I am really amazed as to how the chinese have this line of communication with him. Hats off.

I understand your disappointment, there is nothing I can say to soothe that. Will pray to God for everyone. Hang on.


One Chinese guy cotacted Mr.CO for his hold of EB2 and no explanation in VB, he replied:

I attempt to provide guidance regarding future visa
availability on a quarterly basis, and whenever I anticipate a significant
change. Attempting to make longer range projections is extremely unwise
given the potential changes in demand which can occur at any time. Recent
changes in USCIS processing of Employment cases is a great example.
Despite their trend of a somewhat low/stable rate of non China/India EB1 and
EB2 processing during the first 8+ months, large amounts of demand have
suddenly appeared and prevented movement of the EB2 date. Such a large rate
demand was completely unexpected an unannounced until it began to appear.

It's just like shit as always. He always finds excuses for his decision. Nothing new, just full of bull shit again!

[ssvp22]

looks like Q's take is spot on, EB1 and EB2-Row took over the remaining numbers and may be this is good for next year SOFAD
I dont think it is good since by next year people filling in EB1 and their attorneys will learn to game the Kazarian memo/system and start eating 100% of EB1 quota. Remember these are smart hard working people and will definitely game the system to their advantage when required. In other words, EB1 folks will make any kinda cock-n-bull stories about their work experience, publish another 4-5 junk papers, which will make it hard to reject their case.

[qblogfan]

thank you sir.

I am very mad about this VB. I think many people feel the same.

I hope all of us can get GC ASAP!



qbf, actually this answer by CO explains very well. I am really amazed as to how the chinese have this line of communication with him. Hats off.

I understand your disappointment, there is nothing I can say to soothe that. Will pray to God for everyone.

[qblogfan]

I don't know that person. He just asked and posted on mitbbs.

Originally he told us that Mr.CO is helping EB2, but it turns out CO f***ed EB2.



can that person ask CO why there was no BTM when it wud be prudent to do so this time?

[ssvp22]

large amounts of demand have
suddenly appeared and prevented movement of the EB2 date. Such a large rate
demand was completely unexpected an unannounced until it began to appear.

I dont believe this theory. This is akin to saying - hey its summer and ice cream sales are going to go up. Only way this can be justified is that EB1 attorneys have figured out a way around the Kazarian memo and are back with full force.

[nishant2200]

I dont think it is good since by next year people filling in EB1 and their attorneys will learn to game the Kazarian memo/system and start eating 100% of EB1 quota. Remember these are smart hard working people and will definitely game the system to their advantage when required. In other words, EB1 folks will make any kinda cock-n-bull stories about their work experience, publish another 4-5 junk papers, which will make it hard to reject their case.

That is true, they will be smarter. It won't be 12k from them again. I think this year was the peak in SOFAD. It should be written in gold in history. itihas ke pannon par suvarn aksharon se likha jaega.

Let's hope USCIS also gets smarter and rejects their cock-n-bull stories.

I am digressing now, but I saw guys from Nepal get their GCs in 8-9 months in EB2 ROW. Perspective :D :(

joke:

chaukidar to my father: aapka beta kya kar raha hai
my father: naukeri kar raha hai, 15 saal se GC ka wait kar raha hai
chaukidar: saabji, mei toh next year GC par jaa raha hun amrika, mera beta toh 6 saal pehle hi citizen ban gaya

[pch053]

A preliminary rough analysis for FY 2012.

8000 - demand data
4000 - PWMB hidden demand
6000 - Porting demand

They are kind of already beginning with above 18k demand in FY 2012, just moving dates back to July 2007 threshold would yield them 12k demand as well as the porting is a throughout the year consistent phenomena.

Let’s assume the 5k for EB2 I/C negates the Porting to be just 1000.

So we can say they are starting with 13k hidden/known/will arise demand.

Let's say each month later on, till Q3 2008 has almost 2500 demand each month.

Half August 2007 : 1250
Each month then on till late 2008 : 2500

SO -- Dates
-- ------
13k -- 15th August 2007
14.25k -- 1st Sep 2007
17k -- 8th Oct 2007
19.5k -- 8th Nov 2007
20k -- 15th Nov 2007
22k -- 8th Dec 2007
24.5k -- 8st Jan 2008
27k -- 8th Feb 2008
29.5k -- 8th March 2008
30k -- 15th March 2008

Positives:
- All EB2 I/C till 15th April 2007 accounted for.
- No 15/12 demand for EB1, EB2 ROW coming into FY 2012, backlog reduced as much as they could, so backlog is not a concern in FY 2012
- EB2 ROW shall continue to remain current

Puzzles:
- what will be patterns of EB1, EB2 ROW, EB5
- will CO consider doing quarterly SO in conjunction with SFM
- is BTM in favor at all
- what will be strategy of CO in terms of SFM, UFM, BTM, and so on to have the pipeline functioning properly

Guys, let me know if something is wrong, or can be better factored in.

This looks a reasonable estimate to me. I will expect the total SOFAD (incl. EB2-I/C quota of 5.6K) to be at least in the range of 20K - 25K; so the dates should surely move to somewhere around late 2007 (if not more).

[neospeed]

qbf, actually this answer by CO explains very well. I am really amazed as to how the chinese have this line of communication with him. Hats off.

I understand your disappointment, there is nothing I can say to soothe that. Will pray to God for everyone. Hang on.

I think IV also got direct line, but they don't share any info. If they share also it will be very cryptic.

[qblogfan]

don't take CO's words seriously.

all these words are just excuses.........

we never know the real time data and nobody is checking him.

he does what he wants, but his words are nothing but BS........


I dont believe this theory. This is akin to saying - hey its summer and ice cream sales are going to go up. Only way this can be justified is that EB1 attorneys have figured out a way around the Kazarian memo and are back with full force.

[qblogfan]

Even they share the info, it won't make any difference.

CO's words are not trustable at all. He played EB community big time.


I think IV also got direct line, but they don't share any info. If they share also it will be very cryptic.

[mesan123]

I understand your frustation....my colleague is from srilanka...he applied with me for his GC...now he has his EAD and waiting for GC card...he is in USA for last 4 years...sometimes i feel like why this difference...but sometimes i feel thinking that way i am becoming selfish and jealous seeing others get GC which is not right too..

Par kya kare...akir hum tho insan hey baghavan tho nahi ....


That is true, they will be smarter. It won't be 12k from them again. I think this year was the peak in SOFAD. It should be written in gold in history. itihas ke pannon par suvarn aksharon se likha jaega.

Let's hope USCIS also gets smarter and rejects their cock-n-bull stories.

I am digressing now, but I saw guys from Nepal get their GCs in 8-9 months in EB2 ROW. Perspective :D :(

joke:

chaukidar to my father: aapka beta kya kar raha hai
my father: naukeri kar raha hai, 15 saal se GC ka wait kar raha hai
chaukidar: saabji, mei toh next year GC par jaa raha hun amrika, mera beta toh 6 saal pehle hi citizen ban gaya

[donvar]

One Chinese guy cotacted Mr.CO for his hold of EB2 and no explanation in VB, he replied:

I attempt to provide guidance regarding future visa
availability on a quarterly basis, and whenever I anticipate a significant
change. Attempting to make longer range projections is extremely unwise
given the potential changes in demand which can occur at any time. Recent
changes in USCIS processing of Employment cases is a great example.
Despite their trend of a somewhat low/stable rate of non China/India EB1 and
EB2 processing during the first 8+ months, large amounts of demand have
suddenly appeared and prevented movement of the EB2 date. Such a large rate
demand was completely unexpected an unannounced until it began to appear.

It's just like shit as always. He always finds excuses for his decision. Nothing new, just full of bull shit again!

If this is true, then CO's hands are not tied by law. He thinks it is not "wise" to do a BTM even if there are ample justifications.(fill up the EB2 queue for similar spillover next year). His statement Attempting to make longer range projections is extremely unwise given the potential changes in demand which can occur at any time says it all. He wants to be conservative.

[valuablehurdle]

My PD is April 15th, 2007. Ha hahhaha. Stuck for the last two months now.

I was hoping that once I get my GC, I would quickly quit my boring IT job and start doing what i really love. I regularly compete in cross-fit sports in our state. I am a certified fitness trainer and wanted to shift into this field..

Well, I am stuck !!!!



This is cruel. But you should be current any month now.


gcseeker great advice. I especially strongly recommend 3 & 4 on your list.


Would've liked to. I belong to the state that has the distinct honor of passing SB1070 ;) Those from here wouldn't be a bad idea to get together for a drink. We will ask Jack Brown to send us whatever he is going to smoke tonight :)


Harick ... thanks .. we need this tonight !!

As per next year .... I would bet that the SOFAD next year should be similar to what we will see this year unless Kazarian situation changes.

[qesehmk]

QBF ... you are super-pissed with CO. Take it easy ... the guy is a good guy. I have personally talked with him. What he says makes a lot of sense. If EB1 and EB2ROW demand appears then he has a legal obligation to fulfil that demand. All of us knew that throughout the year EB1 and EB2ROW demand was subdued. So a day was going to come when all that latent demand would break lose.

Besides, CO simply allocates a visa number, it is USCIS that is requesting those additional numbers from him for EB1 and EB2ROW.



Even they share the info, it won't make any difference.

CO's words are not trustable at all. He played EB community big time.


That hurts! Hopefully you will be C within a couple of months and get out of this mess.

My PD is April 15th, 2007. Ha hahhaha. Stuck for the last two months now.

I was hoping that once I get my GC, I would quickly quit my boring IT job and start doing what i really love. I regularly compete in cross-fit sports in our state. I am a certified fitness trainer and wanted to shift into this field..

Well, I am stuck !!!!

[donvar]

QBF ... you are super-pissed with CO. Take it easy ... the guy is a good guy. I have personally talked with him. What he says makes a lot of sense. If EB1 and EB2ROW demand appears then he has a legal obligation to fulfil that demand. All of us knew that throughout the year EB1 and EB2ROW demand was subdued. So a day was going to come when all that latent demand would break lose.

Besides, CO simply allocates a visa number, it is USCIS that is requesting those additional numbers from him for EB1 and EB2ROW.

I think you are right.

I think we cannot assume anything until Q3 next year. They will first see the trend of EB1 and EB2 Row for first two quarters and then depending upon that, make a SFM or BTM. I dont think they would be proactive to think that this SFM or BTM EB2IC applications would be documentarily qualified to use next year SOFAD. This is something we are thinking.

[haripathhi]

Friends,

Everyone's frustration is understandable. This month's VB did disappoint. However, let us be thankful about the fact that the dates remained stay-put at Apr 15, '07. The way CO commented makes me a little worried about next month's VB bulletin. I hope it does not retrogress from its current state at least.

[zenmaster]

I don't know that person. He just asked and posted on mitbbs.

Originally he told us that Mr.CO is helping EB2, but it turns out CO f***ed EB2.
Huh... so typical americanism.

[donvar]

QBF ... you are super-pissed with CO. Take it easy ... the guy is a good guy. I have personally talked with him. What he says makes a lot of sense. If EB1 and EB2ROW demand appears then he has a legal obligation to fulfil that demand. All of us knew that throughout the year EB1 and EB2ROW demand was subdued. So a day was going to come when all that latent demand would break lose.

Besides, CO simply allocates a visa number, it is USCIS that is requesting those additional numbers from him for EB1 and EB2ROW.


.

May be next time if anyone talks to him , we should ask his opinion that in absence of legislative action , what could be done to provide some relief for people who have been waiting for years (PWMB) to file 485 :-)

The past method of advancing the dates and then retrogressing was better for us than present clarity of USCIS where while they will not retrogress the dates, they will not advance it until they have underlying visas available.

[pg_at_q]

Hey Q and other gurus, question for you all -

We know there's a per-country limit of 7% that translates to around 9000 visas for India, and about 3000 for EB2 India. Are they mandated by law to spread the usage of these 3000 across 12 months, or can they use it in the first month of the FY (i.e October)?

In other words, can they use this 3000 for India EB2 completely in October 2012 given that they already have a demand that is greater then that. Plz reply.

[evoori]

They can not allocate more than 27% in any quarter except last quarter.. This has been discussed many times in this thread but I know this thread has grown large enough..

Hey Q and other gurus, question for you all -

We know there's a per-country limit of 7% that translates to around 9000 visas for India, and about 3000 for EB2 India. Are they mandated by law to spread the usage of these 3000 across 12 months, or can they use it in the first month of the FY (i.e October)?

In other words, can they use this 3000 for India EB2 completely in October 2012 given that they already have a demand that is greater then that. Plz reply.

[veni001]

Hey Q and other gurus, question for you all -

We know there's a per-country limit of 7% that translates to around 9000 visas for India, and about 3000 for EB2 India. Are they mandated by law to spread the usage of these 3000 across 12 months, or can they use it in the first month of the FY (i.e October)?

In other words, can they use this 3000 for India EB2 completely in October 2012 given that they already have a demand that is greater then that. Plz reply.

Yes, it can be as long as EB1/EB2ROWMP usage is less and first quarter overall VISA usage is less than 27% of 140K.

FY2011- EB2I - all FY quota was use by April 2011.

[meso129]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5542.html

[qesehmk]

Friends,

I am little tired of thinking about this bulletin and how this has Effed up a lot of people's hopes. So here is something that I found funny thinking about the distribution of our visitors around the world.

I apologize in advance to anybody who is going to be offended by this. If you get offended please write to QBF and he will straighten you out. QBF sorry my friend ... I am just not in a good mood ... so trying to pick on you. I hope you don't mind.

Enjoy ! And send some suggestions and we will update this graph of our visitors around the world.

p.s. Teddy - Where is Rodnyb? Lets find him :)

[qesehmk]

Jago Mohan Pyaare !!


http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5542.html

[gcq]

I would say don't read too much into what is written in VB other than the dates. CO always fills VBs with lot of gibberish as if he has to create a multi-page document. Sometimes he copy-pastes INA into VB. Other times he adds his own thoughts which will change in the very next bulletin. Look up the dates and ignore the CO's explanations in VB.

[pg_at_q]

They can not allocate more than 27% in any quarter except last quarter.. This has been discussed many times in this thread but I know this thread has grown large enough..

Thanks evoori and veni001

[snathan]

don't take CO's words seriously.

all these words are just excuses.........

we never know the real time data and nobody is checking him.

he does what he wants, but his words are nothing but BS........

He is amazing to give the shitty reason all the time....

[yank]

Q,

The disappointment is a repeat of Sep 2010. Last yr it was a surge of EB1 and Eb2 ROW. Are we sure it's again EB1 and EB2 row or is their some other reason? You also pointed out some time back that their are enough cases from EB1 and EB2 row then why they were kept on hold for 2-3 months. I am not seeing BTM in near future. What a mess?

[qesehmk]

I think the disappointment is due to, as Leo called it, "Elevated Expectations".

And yes, I think I am guilty of not keeping any safety buffer in my projections. So e.g. in this case I thought they would continue to run EB1 and EB2 ROW at the same rate as first 10 months. But it seems 11th and 12th month they seem to expect a pickup in those categories which is why they slowed EB2IC train.

However on a second thought I do wonder how come when August has just started they know that EB1 and EB2ROW are going to pick up. It does suggest some sort of policy decision and arrangement across agencies.



Q,

The disappointment is a repeat of Sep 2010. Last yr it was a surge of EB1 and Eb2 ROW. Are we sure it's again EB1 and EB2 row or is their some other reason? You also pointed out some time back that their are enough cases from EB1 and EB2 row then why they were kept on hold for 2-3 months. I am not seeing BTM in near future. What a mess?

[gchopeful123]

Looks like my prediction came true...unfortunately!! My Sep 2007 PD remains a distant dream


Hey Nishant,
Good to see that u are a LOTR fan as well. Here's what Eomer wud have said :)

“Look for BTM in SEP VB, but do not trust to hope for it has foresaken these lands.”
-- Eomer, The Two Towers

PS: now dont ask me why my username is gchopeful !!!

[gchopeful123]

Sorry guys I have lost it today.....

Oh by God lag gayi…
kya se kya hua…
dekha to katora…
jhaanka to kuan…
ye bheja garden hai
aur tension maali hai

bhaag bhaag GC ke picche bhaag!!!


Saala naseeb hi ga**du toh kya karega soggadu (et al...)

[harick]

Good analysis Nishanth. I have one question, the demana data for EB2IC as of september is 8000. Do you think it's going stay at same level for October or will it reduce by another 2-3k.


A preliminary rough analysis for FY 2012.

8000 - demand data
4000 - PWMB hidden demand
6000 - Porting demand

They are kind of already beginning with above 18k demand in FY 2012, just moving dates back to July 2007 threshold would yield them 12k demand as well as the porting is a throughout the year consistent phenomena.

Let’s assume the 5k for EB2 I/C negates the Porting to be just 1000.

So we can say they are starting with 13k hidden/known/will arise demand.

Let's say each month later on, till Q3 2008 has almost 2500 demand each month.

Half August 2007 : 1250
Each month then on till late 2008 : 2500

SO -- Dates
-- ------
13k -- 15th August 2007
14.25k -- 1st Sep 2007
17k -- 8th Oct 2007
19.5k -- 8th Nov 2007
20k -- 15th Nov 2007
22k -- 8th Dec 2007
24.5k -- 8st Jan 2008
27k -- 8th Feb 2008
29.5k -- 8th March 2008
30k -- 15th March 2008

Positives:
- All EB2 I/C till 15th April 2007 accounted for.
- No 15/12 demand for EB1, EB2 ROW coming into FY 2012, backlog reduced as much as they could, so backlog is not a concern in FY 2012
- EB2 ROW shall continue to remain current

Puzzles:
- what will be patterns of EB1, EB2 ROW, EB5
- will CO consider doing quarterly SO in conjunction with SFM
- is BTM in favor at all
- what will be strategy of CO in terms of SFM, UFM, BTM, and so on to have the pipeline functioning properly

Guys, let me know if something is wrong, or can be better factored in.

[skpanda]

Since there is no movement for EB2IC in Sept 2011, FY 2012 (Oct 2012) start with 8K. No reduction. In addition we have to add porting and PWMB numbers. So total of 18K demand.

Good analysis Nishant. Wanted to do something like this...but i lost it today, did not want to get into 2012 so early and did not want to attract attacks from friends here who are as pissed as me.


Good analysis Nishanth. I have one question, the demana data for EB2IC as of september is 8000. Do you think it's going stay at same level for October or will it reduce by another 2-3k.

[Jan2008]

So what happens to those who have rec'd NVC fee notice? I read somewhere that the fees expire in 12 months.. Is my understanding correct? If that's the case then people who have rec'd these fee notices in March this year will expire by the time the Q3 move kicks in. Articles that I have read on NVC notices have shown movement in few months.. Not sure why the hold up on EB2? This sucks!

[skpanda]

This was discussed few months ago and I think the final verdict was, people have 12 months to pay the NVC fees in response to the notice. However once the fees is paid, it wont expire and will be used as and when their dates are Current.

Why there was an hold on EB2... very simple... DOS/USCIS wanted it. Somebody posted here that Mr. CO said that EB1 and EB2 ROW have surged. Not sure if that is authentic. In any case good luck for FY 2012.


So what happens to those who have rec'd NVC fee notice? I read somewhere that the fees expire in 12 months.. Is my understanding correct? If that's the case then people who have rec'd these fee notices in March this year will expire by the time the Q3 move kicks in. Articles that I have read on NVC notices have shown movement in few months.. Not sure why the hold up on EB2? This sucks!

[nishant2200]

harick, Jan2008, both your questions, skpanda answered very well.

basically, demand data had no significance to decision of EB2 I/C movement for September, it turns out.

skpanda, a very important reason I did this analysis quickly, was I wanted to give reasonable hope and future direction to everyone. I was feeling really sad for everyone, even sogaddu disappeared.

Thanks for your kind words.

It's best, and honestly pragmatic, to take this year by year, hence only did so for FY 2012.

gchopeful123 and fellow LOTR fans, wish we could see some inspiring LOTR quote. But today is a hard day, one has to admit.

[Monica12]

What the ^$&^$%#%#%##^$^$$##!..............sorry guys but this really, really sucks :(
I'm just soooooooooooooo....... disappointed !!!
And Soggadu changed his avatar which is even more depressing ..sigh..

[nishant2200]

About EB3-I movement.

Many people were wondering how so much EB3 I movement. Teddy put a very interesting thought in another forum. Since these dates are so old, USCIS might be issuing EVL RFEs, and they don't get response or don't get proper response to them, and hence they want to move to a larger cushion date, because of this pattern.

One has to think, these dates for EB3 I are in 2002, it is 9 years back. Some folks may have just gone back for good. Or gone to other countries. Or may have found it really difficult to maintain that job profile / job area for such unreasonable period of time.

[vishnu]

As far as BTM goes, they can do that anytime, can't they? The 27% limitation rule applies only to that particularly fiscal years visa usage, but even in Oct or Nov, they can do a BTM to take in the applications and actually assign visa to some of them only in Q4 FY 2012?

[qesehmk]

Any forward movement has to occur ONLY WHEN more visas are available than are demanded by USCIS.

In October even if they consider full year quota for EB2I, that is woefully short to the demand which is basically 8K or so.

An October BTM was a possibility when September showed decent forward movement. Now they have effectively killed prospects of BTM until end of FY 2012 Q1 or Q2. i.e. Dec or March.


As far as BTM goes, they can do that anytime, can't they? The 27% limitation rule applies only to that particularly fiscal years visa usage, but even in Oct or Nov, they can do a BTM to take in the applications and actually assign visa to some of them only in Q4 FY 2012?

[vishnu]

Thanks Q - makes sense.

[kingcaeser]

Friends, what does BTM mean?

[waiting]

Till y'day BTM meant = Big Temporary Movement
Now it means "Blocked Tangled Movement"

[Spectator]

Nishant's excellent work prompted me to also look at the figures.

The figures below are based on the PERM data for China & India for Certifications after August 17 2007.

It assumes 60% EB2 ratio, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio and that only 85% of 2007 I-485 cases actually proceed to approval (90% for 2008).

I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.

------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

Although some of the PWMB has already been approved in FY2011, the starting figure of 8,000 is not the whole universe either, so for simplicity I am cancelling these out.

It looks very difficult to move beyond 2007 next year.

PS I think it is probably time to create a new thread for FY2012 and confine discussion here to what happened in FY2011.

[kingcaeser]

You are right! I feel the second abbreviation looks more appropriate to me.

[memk26]

I agree with what sogaddu has said. skpanda has a great idea if you file the extension at the 11th hour you can stay in status for the maximum amount of time. Ideally even denial should not affect your 485 approval in anyway AFAIK. However times are changing there was some discussion that memo was being applied to I140; hopefully I585 should be outside that purview. Hope that you and many more get current today.

It was really a disappointing bulletin for me, my H1b ext at risk and with PD may2007
Gurus what option I have now.?
Looks like I have to file H1 now..can't wait for EAD anymore
Any suggetions please ?

[rahil1]

It was really a disappointing bulletin for me, my H1b ext at risk and with PD may2007
Gurus what option I have now.?
Looks like I have to file H1 now..can't wait for EAD anymore
Any suggetions please ?

I am also in the same boat.Infact i was so confident that the dates would move, I did not think about the h1b ext.

[gc_usa]

Nishant's excellent work prompted me to also look at the figures.

The figures below are based on the PERM data for China & India for Certifications after August 17 2007.

It assumes 60% EB2 ratio, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio and that only 85% of 2007 I-485 cases actually proceed to approval (90% for 2008).

I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.

------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

Although some of the PWMB has already been approved in FY2011, the starting figure of 8,000 is not the whole universe either, so for simplicity I am cancelling these out.

It looks very difficult to move beyond 2007 next year.

PS I think it is probably time to create a new thread for FY2012 and confine discussion here to what happened in FY2011.

It is same what I have assumed , my PD is 2nd Jan 2008 and think still there will be 25k people ahead of me so it will be 25k SOFAD including regular quota needed to clear all cases before me. Only one thing can save me is is DOS go little bit extra to create a buffer in case if not all PERM approval translate into I 485.. I may barely get a chance for 2012. For 2013 may be I will get it.

But data points different that what if holds true NVC is doing. NVC is sending out email for fee as late as Sep 2008 ( as per some one recent post ) If that is true then we are looking EB2 will be C next fall. YES I am not kidding it will be Current.

[rahil1]

But data points different that what if holds true NVC is doing. NVC is sending out email for fee as late as Sep 2008 ( as per some one recent post ) If that is true then we are looking EB2 will be C next fall. YES I am not kidding it will be Current.

Dude... please stop giving false hopes... no one knows what will happen...

[neospeed]

Nishant's excellent work prompted me to also look at the figures.

The figures below are based on the PERM data for China & India for Certifications after August 17 2007.

It assumes 60% EB2 ratio, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio and that only 85% of 2007 I-485 cases actually proceed to approval (90% for 2008).

I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.

------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

Although some of the PWMB has already been approved in FY2011, the starting figure of 8,000 is not the whole universe either, so for simplicity I am cancelling these out.

It looks very difficult to move beyond 2007 next year.

PS I think it is probably time to create a new thread for FY2012 and confine discussion here to what happened in FY2011.

Spillover consumption starts from April 15th 2007 onwards right for the next FY (2012), since the last cutoff for 2011 is april 15th 2007?

[gchopeful123]

We might as well name it "Big Time Mess".

I was seriously hoping to file for EAD/AP (PD SEP 2007) so that I dont have to continue on lousy H1 extensions. I was in a very bad mood/depression yesterday until I went home and hugged my kids. At that time I realized that there's more to life than just chasing after these VB bulletins month after month. I need to concentrate on and cherish what I have right now.So now onto filing for H1 extension.

Nishant's and my case are so much similar. Even I wanted to get this GC stuff over with so that I am no longer bound to H1, can take up projects which really interest me, visit India and peacefully come back whenever I want, sponsor my parents to come to the US and stay with me so that they dont have to stay alone back in India.

At least I find solace in the fact that my PD may be current in the next 6 months or so and GC processing may be faster beacuse of the backlog clearance. I truly feel for ppl who have PDs in 2008 and later. It seems without any congressional action this problem is never going to end.


Till y'day BTM meant = Big Temporary Movement
Now it means "Blocked Tangled Movement"

[Spectator]

Spillover consumption starts from April 15th 2007 onwards right for the next FY (2012), since the last cutoff for 2011 is april 15th 2007?neospeed,

In theory, yes, but 8,000 is only the number that DOS know about.

In fact, the USCIS Inventory suggests there are a few more than that.

The number is pretty much cancelled out by the PWMB cases to April 15 2007, so you should read the numbers from January, even though you will only be interested in those from April onwards. The Jan-Mar figures are purely theoretical and of no practical use.

I could have used a starting figure of > 8,000, then estimated how many PWMB had been approved in FY2011, but I thought that would have been even more confusing.

No offset of the numbers is required, other than if you wish to assume a different level of Porting.

I hope that explains it.

[ssvp22]

neospeed,

In theory, yes, but 8,000 is only the number that DOS know about.

In fact, the USCIS Inventory suggests there are a few more than that.

The number is pretty much cancelled out by the PWMB cases to April 15 2007, so you should read the numbers from January, even though you will only be interested in those from April onwards.

I could have used a starting figure of > 8,000, then estimated how many PWMB had been approved in FY2011, but I thought that would have been even more confusing.

No offset of the numbers is required, other than if you wish to assume a different level of Porting.

I hope that explains it.
Wont the 8k number go down after the approvals in September 2011?

[veni001]

neospeed,

In theory, yes, but 8,000 is only the number that DOS know about.

In fact, the USCIS Inventory suggests there are a few more than that.

The number is pretty much cancelled out by the PWMB cases to April 15 2007, so you should read the numbers from January, even though you will only be interested in those from April onwards.

I could have used a starting figure of > 8,000, then estimated how many PWMB had been approved in FY2011, but I thought that would have been even more confusing.

No offset of the numbers is required, other than if you wish to assume a different level of Porting.

I hope that explains it.

Spec,
This is little bit misleading because, however you look there will not be 12K EB2CI cases pending(including porting) before 15APR2007.

Similar to FY2011 there will be 1k-2k EB2CI cases pending before 15APR2007 by 10-1-2011.

At least for newbies, it would be easy to understand if you start with April 2007

[gchopeful123]

I think the 8,000 number will come down after they complete processing in Sep 2011, wouldn't it?


neospeed,

In theory, yes, but 8,000 is only the number that DOS know about.

In fact, the USCIS Inventory suggests there are a few more than that.

The number is pretty much cancelled out by the PWMB cases to April 15 2007, so you should read the numbers from January, even though you will only be interested in those from April onwards. The Jan-Mar figures are purely theoretical and of no practical use.

I could have used a starting figure of > 8,000, then estimated how many PWMB had been approved in FY2011, but I thought that would have been even more confusing.

No offset of the numbers is required, other than if you wish to assume a different level of Porting.

I hope that explains it.

[veni001]

I think the 8,000 number will come down after they complete processing in Sep 2011, wouldn't it?


Wont the 8k number go down after the approvals in September 2011?


I don't think so, unless they move EB2CI dates in October.

Look at the June EB-485 inventory update (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf) for EB2CI cases pending for 15APR2007 to AUG2007.

[donvar]

However on a second thought I do wonder how come when August has just started they know that EB1 and EB2ROW are going to pick up. It does suggest some sort of policy decision and arrangement across agencies.

It seems quite straight forward to me, its just they waited for the last. In the last 2 months, they checked how much documentary qualified EB1 and EB2 ROW (by this time EB1 with RFE must have responded) they can reduce before closing the year. If none were there, they would have given to EB2IC. Yes, this must have been their strategy, that before closing the year, have one last look at EB1 and EB2ROW and approve what you can.

[TeddyKoochu]

About EB3-I movement.

Many people were wondering how so much EB3 I movement. Teddy put a very interesting thought in another forum. Since these dates are so old, USCIS might be issuing EVL RFEs, and they don't get response or don't get proper response to them, and hence they want to move to a larger cushion date, because of this pattern.

One has to think, these dates for EB3 I are in 2002, it is 9 years back. Some folks may have just gone back for good. Or gone to other countries. Or may have found it really difficult to maintain that job profile / job area for such unreasonable period of time.

Nishant I just read another interesting explanation for EB3 movement on IV from user named Caliber.

Originally Posted by Caliber
This may not be spill over. Two of my friends with PD April 2002 got their GC's about 6 years back, but they were not married at the time of their 485 filing and their wife's came on H1 and applied 485 on their own during June/July fiasco. Now these guys became Citizens and sponsored their wife's on immediate family visa. One more friend will be citizen in next six months and his wife will not need her EB based 485 any more.

If I know 3 guys, there could be few others who are becoming citizens and their spouses no more required to be in EB queue.

Due to this, 2002/2003 first qrtr should at least move faster as those who got GC's in June/July 2007 will become Citizens in 2012 and their spouses who applied 485's during that time will no more be in EB queue.

[qesehmk]

My dirty calculation for 2012 is as follows:

1) Prior to Apr 15 = X . But then X always stays there wherever teh date goes. So X doesn't matter.
2) Apr 15- Aug = 8K
3) PWMB = 3K
4) Portings = 4K
5) Per Month = 2.2K

Gives us -

Aug 07 - 17K
Dec 07 - 26K
Mar 07 - 33K

-------

This years SOFAD = ~ 28K

Next year if everything goes just like this year then assuming 28K .... backlog should be cleared through Jan 2008. For Jan 2008 dates to be processed by Sep 2012 then need to be in the system by Mar 2012.

In other words ... the dates must move Jan 2008 by Mar 2012.

Rough logic ... but tear it apart!


Spec,
This is little bit misleading because, however you look there will not be 12K EB2CI cases pending(including porting) before 15APR2007.

Similar to FY2011 there will be 1k-2k EB2CI cases pending before 15APR2007 by 10-1-2011.

At least for newbies, it would be easy to understand if you start with April 2007

[bieber]

Nishant's excellent work prompted me to also look at the figures.

The figures below are based on the PERM data for China & India for Certifications after August 17 2007.

It assumes 60% EB2 ratio, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio and that only 85% of 2007 I-485 cases actually proceed to approval (90% for 2008).

I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.

------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

Although some of the PWMB has already been approved in FY2011, the starting figure of 8,000 is not the whole universe either, so for simplicity I am cancelling these out.

It looks very difficult to move beyond 2007 next year.

PS I think it is probably time to create a new thread for FY2012 and confine discussion here to what happened in FY2011.

Spec,

may be the 8000 needed to be split in to 4 parts and assign to Apr/May, May/June, June/July. July/Aug. how about the following, also 1000 of porting to each month just to spread it

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 62
February 2007 -------------- 157
March 2007 ----------------- 281
April 2007 ----------------- 1,041
May 2007 ------------------- 3,625
June 2007 ------------------ 7,051
July 2007 ------------------ 10,054
August 2007 ---------------- 13,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

[gchopeful123]

Thanks Q!

But I have a basic question, since the USCIS/DOS will be bound by quarterly limits starting financial year 1OCT2011, how is it going to be possible for them to move PD dates until Jan 2008? It would have made sense to do it in the SEP VB bulletin, staring Oct I think their hands are tied by the law. Any comments/suggestions?


My dirty calculation for 2012 is as follows:

1) Prior to Apr 15 = X . But then X always stays there wherever teh date goes. So X doesn't matter.
2) Apr 15- Aug = 8K
3) PWMB = 3K
4) Portings = 4K
5) Per Month = 2.2K

Gives us -

Aug 07 - 17K
Dec 07 - 26K
Mar 07 - 33K

-------

This years SOFAD = ~ 28K

Next year if everything goes just like this year then assuming 28K .... backlog should be cleared through Jan 2008. For Jan 2008 dates to be processed by Sep 2012 then need to be in the system by Mar 2012.

In other words ... the dates must move Jan 2008 by Mar 2012.

Rough logic ... but tear it apart!

[qesehmk]

Agree completely. And I do not have an answer to that. I have only laid out the thought process. If you think about it .... "Jan-08" is immaterial. Whatever that month is ..... call is "X",
If SOFAD is less than 28K then: X < Jan 2008
if SOFAD is more than 28K then : X > Jan 2008

But DoS must move dates to X by Mar 2012. That's the argument.


Thanks Q!

But I have a basic question, since the USCIS/DOS will be bound by quarterly limits starting financial year 1OCT2011, how is it going to be possible for them to move PD dates until Jan 2008? It would have made sense to do it in the SEP VB bulletin, staring Oct I think their hands are tied by the law. Any comments/suggestions?

[soggadu]

not bad we still have 73 people sucking info...

Q, on other note...its been 10 days and you havent given us any good news abt ur GC... whats up??

[gc_usa]

My dirty calculation for 2012 is as follows:

1) Prior to Apr 15 = X . But then X always stays there wherever teh date goes. So X doesn't matter.
2) Apr 15- Aug = 8K
3) PWMB = 3K
4) Portings = 4K
5) Per Month = 2.2K

Gives us -

Aug 07 - 17K
Dec 07 - 26K
Mar 07 - 33K

-------

This years SOFAD = ~ 28K

Next year if everything goes just like this year then assuming 28K .... backlog should be cleared through Jan 2008. For Jan 2008 dates to be processed by Sep 2012 then need to be in the system by Mar 2012.

In other words ... the dates must move Jan 2008 by Mar 2012.

Rough logic ... but tear it apart!

Agree.. Q since this site is dedicated on number crunching should we ask DOS to publish usage report every month.We can do either by submitting FOIA every month or having sending email to CO to publish it. That will help us lot .. same way USCIS publish I 140 data based on country of Origin and category..

[neospeed]

Agree.. Q since this site is dedicated on number crunching should we ask DOS to publish usage report every month.We can do either by submitting FOIA every month or having sending email to CO to publish it. That will help us lot .. same way USCIS publish I 140 data based on country of Origin and category..


Yes this is a great idea, we can also collect some funds to make this happen.

[qesehmk]

soggadu, i hope the days come when you once again revert back to your old profile picture!
I still don't have good news. Crossing fingers.

p.s. - I noticed you have now formally also become a Guru!


not bad we still have 73 people sucking info...

Q, on other note...its been 10 days and you havent given us any good news abt ur GC... whats up??


Agree.. Q since this site is dedicated on number crunching should we ask DOS to publish usage report every month.We can do either by submitting FOIA every month or having sending email to CO to publish it. That will help us lot .. same way USCIS publish I 140 data based on country of Origin and category..
That is an interesting idea. Spec Teddy and others what do you guys think?

[evoori]

I think the 8,000 number will come down after they complete processing in Sep 2011, wouldn't it?

We can divide earlier PWMBs into two now.. those before 15APR07 who did get a chance to file 485 but still are not documentarily qualified.. they are not included in 8000 but with time they will be qualified and increase the number..
second types of PWMBs are still PWMBs with PD after 15APR07.. they are also not included in 8000 and will be included only when PD moves forward..

depending upon how many first type of PWMBs are there and how many EB2 visa they approve, 8000 may go up or down (most likely will go up because there are already 7800+ qualified I485 pending between Apr and July07).

[soggadu]

soggadu, i hope the days come when you once again revert back to your old profile picture!
I still don't have good news. Crossing fingers.

p.s. - I noticed you have now formally also become a Guru!



I know...though i didnt speak much... i was disappointed...but no problem... new day new hope... i wish u get ur cards soon... i guess u might have to open a SR or something after 2 weeks... it worked in my frnds group...

Good idea by gc_usa... count my yes on it...

[evoori]

I made a graph of GC movement for the last 4 years.. the disconnects are Unavailable numbers.. if someone wants I can post or send the raw data I used..


87

[skpanda]

Yes.. if i were you i would file for H1b Extension with as much required paper work as possible. I would do that even if ur date becomes current in next 1 or 2 months.



It was really a disappointing bulletin for me, my H1b ext at risk and with PD may2007
Gurus what option I have now.?
Looks like I have to file H1 now..can't wait for EAD anymore
Any suggetions please ?

[whereismygclost]

Q and other gurus,
Can someone quickly come up with a quick dirty most pessimistic SOFAD for 2012 adding expected spillovers from Family,EB1,EB2-ROW,EB5 etc? I just wanted to gauge what will be the worst case for 2012 ....treat it like as worse as Sehwag getting out first ball duck today morning(and I woke up at 3 am with alarm to watch him)!

Agree completely. And I do not have an answer to that. I have only laid out the thought process. If you think about it .... "Jan-08" is immaterial. Whatever that month is ..... call is "X",
If SOFAD is less than 28K then: X < Jan 2008
if SOFAD is more than 28K then : X > Jan 2008

But DoS must move dates to X by Mar 2012. That's the argument.

[soggadu]

Q and other gurus,
Can someone quickly come up with a quick dirty most pessimistic SOFAD for 2012 adding expected spillovers from Family,EB1,EB2-ROW,EB5 etc? I just wanted to gauge what will be the worst case for 2012 ....treat it like as worse as Sehwag getting out first ball duck today morning(and I woke up at 3 am with alarm to watch him)!

last i heard 18K... Q had posted it some where in the back pages...

[neospeed]

I think we will at least get 5k from each eb1,eb5,and eb2 row, which totals to 15k.

[natvyas]

I think we will at least get 5k from each eb1,eb5,and eb2 row, which totals to 15k.

With Premium Processing of 1-140 for EB1 folks I dont think Eb1 will yield 5 K next year. The only thing that can help the Eb2 community is if the economy continues to sink.

[ssvp22]

With Premium Processing of 1-140 for EB1 folks I dont think Eb1 will yield 5 K next year. The only thing that can help the Eb2 community is if the economy continues to sink.
I agree with this. Only option is to upgrade yourself to EB1 and give it a shot. At most you will loose $10k and you will know in 3-5 months time from start to finish.

[neospeed]

With Premium Processing of 1-140 for EB1 folks I dont think Eb1 will yield 5 K next year. The only thing that can help the Eb2 community is if the economy continues to sink.

I think they only added eb1c, the rest of the eb1 categories already have the option of PP. Any way if cis have an agenda of clearing the eb1 and eb2 row backlogs at the end of the last quarter which happened this year and last year, it doesn't make any difference having PP or not.

[iamdeb]

Hi Friends,

We can see that everyone with PD date after July 2007 are stuck there. Way the CO has been going, no idea when people with PD in 2008 and later will be able to file for I 485.What are the options for persons whose I 140 has been approved but havn't been able to file I 485 yet?
So I want to know if the following options are possible.
a) Move to a different city and different project with same employer and working on different tools and platform but similar role.
b) Move to a different city and different project with same employer and with different role as well.
c) Staying in same project but getting promoted.
d) Switching jobs to a new employer. Will I be able to capture my old PD if my employer withdraws my I 140?

Thanks,
Deb

[vishnu]

Qblogfan - any further comments on the mittbs blogs on CO's insights? Or is it really just what was posted yesterday.

[imechanix]

My dirty calculation for 2012 is as follows:

1) Prior to Apr 15 = X . But then X always stays there wherever teh date goes. So X doesn't matter.
2) Apr 15- Aug = 8K
3) PWMB = 3K
4) Portings = 4K
5) Per Month = 2.2K

Gives us -

Aug 07 - 17K
Dec 07 - 26K
Mar 07 - 33K

-------

This years SOFAD = ~ 28K

Next year if everything goes just like this year then assuming 28K .... backlog should be cleared through Jan 2008. For Jan 2008 dates to be processed by Sep 2012 then need to be in the system by Mar 2012.

In other words ... the dates must move Jan 2008 by Mar 2012.

Rough logic ... but tear it apart!

This is very useful & gives a peek in the box.

I think there is a typo: it should be Mar 08 instead of Mar07

[imechanix]

Nishant's excellent work prompted me to also look at the figures.

The figures below are based on the PERM data for China & India for Certifications after August 17 2007.

It assumes 60% EB2 ratio, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio and that only 85% of 2007 I-485 cases actually proceed to approval (90% for 2008).

I have assumed only 4,000 porting numbers for FY2012.

------------------------------ Req.
FY2012 ---------------------- SOFAD

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 12,062
February 2007 -------------- 12,157
March 2007 ----------------- 12,281
April 2007 ----------------- 12,541
May 2007 ------------------- 13,125
June 2007 ------------------ 14,051
July 2007 ------------------ 15,054
August 2007 ---------------- 16,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

Although some of the PWMB has already been approved in FY2011, the starting figure of 8,000 is not the whole universe either, so for simplicity I am cancelling these out.

It looks very difficult to move beyond 2007 next year.

PS I think it is probably time to create a new thread for FY2012 and confine discussion here to what happened in FY2011.

Thanks to Nishanth & Spec.

Spec,

Why is there still demand from Jan 2007 to April 2007. Shouldn't it be zero since the dates are current until 15April 07.
May be you can update your post # 3 with this data. Also, I agree on new thread for FY 2012.

Thanks.

[imechanix]

Spec,

may be the 8000 needed to be split in to 4 parts and assign to Apr/May, May/June, June/July. July/Aug. how about the following, also 1000 of porting to each month just to spread it

Pre adjudicated --- 8,000 --- 8,000
Porting ----------- 4,000 -- 12,000

January 2007 --------------- 62
February 2007 -------------- 157
March 2007 ----------------- 281
April 2007 ----------------- 1,041
May 2007 ------------------- 3,625
June 2007 ------------------ 7,051
July 2007 ------------------ 10,054
August 2007 ---------------- 13,809
September 2007 ------------- 18,727
October 2007 --------------- 20,924
November 2007 -------------- 22,959
December 2007 -------------- 24,837
January 2008 --------------- 27,402
February 2008 -------------- 29,819
March 2008 ----------------- 31,805
April 2008 ----------------- 34,208
May 2008 ------------------- 36,431
June 2008 ------------------ 38,321
July 2008 ------------------ 40,123
August 2008 ---------------- 41,896
September 2008 ------------- 43,533
October 2008 --------------- 45,618
November 2008 -------------- 47,352
December 2008 -------------- 49,175

I don't understand why we should include demand for months before April 2007 (as it is current now).

[bieber]

I don't understand why we should include demand for months before April 2007 (as it is current now).

Those are the PERMs approved post Aug15th 2007 so they filed 485 in last month or will file very soon, those numbers are not part of existing inventory or demand data. (essentially PWMB)

[Spectator]

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[imechanix]

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226


Nice! I like this better. I'll probably go in hibernation now.

[neospeed]

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

This looks better, thanks Spec.

[veni001]

Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

Spec,

This looks better, you may want to replace Post#3 with this one.

[TeluguBidda]

Whoever is carrying out Predictions for next year may want to factor in most likely upcoming economic recession. It could very well be the case that EB1 and EB2ROW do not consume the same amount of visas as that of this fiscal year.

[qblogfan]

People are mad as hell on mitbbs. EB2C had a high hope and the last VB was a crash landing finally.

Many people's dreams have been destroyed. Sadly our strength is too small and we can't change anything.


Qblogfan - any further comments on the mittbs blogs on CO's insights? Or is it really just what was posted yesterday.

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your analysis. It's very helpful.


Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[gcseeker]

Spec and Q

Thanks for taking the time for the quick analysis.It would help most of us to use the worst worst case estimate so that people with PD's post July 2007 can take important career decisions. With both of your inputs and if the Oct inventory reveals porting is peaking at 6K ( Worst case again ....) and EB1 usage surges...

It would mean since the SOFAD being expected for next year ( 5K from each category +3k) so maybe 18K worst case will only clear cases untill Oct 2007 by March 2012.

And since CO is now using new strategy of only advancing dates very carefully would this mean 2007 inventory will be cleared by end of 2012 .(Just looking for the worst worst case analysis ...thinking it might spill a little over into 2008 ) .

Also the CO would have to find an way around the policy of not allocating more than 27% in a single quarter for even this to happen...I guess.


Thanks for all the comments.

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).



Agree completely. And I do not have an answer to that. I have only laid out the thought process. If you think about it .... "Jan-08" is immaterial. Whatever that month is ..... call is "X",
If SOFAD is less than 28K then: X < Jan 2008
if SOFAD is more than 28K then : X > Jan 2008

But DoS must move dates to X by Mar 2012. That's the argument.

[10102007]

It is very dispiriting. I want to sit and whine, but again I'm in this position by choice. So only have myself to blame. It was almost like the scene were the big black cloud comes rolling in and passes off without raining in Lagaan.

[whereismygclost]

I have PD of 03-OCT-07 EB2-I. Frankly looking at the numbers needed to reach my date to be around 20K(15K +5K porting) based on Spec's table,I am seriously rethinking if I will be lucky in 2012 ,,or is it more like 2013? Sorry but I wanted to lay this out.What do you guys think?

It is very dispiriting. I want to sit and whine, but again I'm in this position by choice. So only have myself to blame. It was almost like the scene were the big black cloud comes rolling in and passes off without raining in Lagaan.

[veni001]

Spec and Q

Thanks for taking the time for the quick analysis.It would help most of us to use the worst worst case estimate so that people with PD's post July 2007 can take important career decisions. With both of your inputs and if the Oct inventory reveals porting is peaking at 6K ( Worst case again ....) and EB1 usage surges...

It would mean since the SOFAD being expected for next year ( 5K from each category +3k) so maybe 18K worst case will only clear cases untill Oct 2007 by March 2012.
And since CO is now using new strategy of only advancing dates very carefully would this mean 2007 inventory will be cleared by end of 2012 .(Just looking for the worst worst case analysis ...thinking it might spill a little over into 2008 ) .

Also the CO would have to find an way around the policy of not allocating more than 27% in a single quarter for even this to happen...I guess.

gcseeker,

I think you mean by September 2012!

[michaelclarke]

I believe the issue is with the number of Visas DOS is issuing - simply put 140K is just not enough based on the high demand. Hopefully the next Fiscal year the number of total Visas that will be allocated will be much more.

[doctorp]

Hi, I am new to the blog,
here is my prediction for 2012,
as far as i understand INA and what i think DOS does, what CO will do is advance slowly for the 1st 2 quarters per normal country limit, that may get the demand down to about 5 K, as there will be porting and also some pwmb. in april they will have much more clear idea as to what the appx SOFAD is going to be, thats the earliest they will do some spillover, historically they have not done it before that ever. now it may take till june 2012 till they finish that 5 k.
Now as far as my reading goes DOS gets its demand from NVC as well as USCIS, and USCIS demands a number only after 485 is adjudicated/approved. so only known demand is NVC ( appx 4372 till today) now whenever they decide to open up the gates they have to go by visible demand, ( thus the 2007 fiasco, DOS knew tht there was demand, but no visible demand was there)
i think post 2007 they have improved their act and they communicate well, but there is no indication that uscis knows the exact breakdown of 140 as they do for 485 ( i read somewhere that they are working on it and may be ready by april 2012) also even if they know the number for the 140 extrapolation from there to 485 is a big guess, and whatever they do if uscis gets inendentated with thousands of 485 they will not be able to approve anything before 6 months, so the only way forward in my opinion is to go by NVC demand and give a big BTM and retrogress in oct 2012, i doubt there can be SFM after aug 07, as the demand from USCIS is unknown and it takes 6 months to develop the pipeline
please comment

[10102007]

I have PD of 03-OCT-07 EB2-I. Frankly looking at the numbers needed to reach my date to be around 20K(15K +5K porting) based on Spec's table,I am seriously rethinking if I will be lucky in 2012 ,,or is it more like 2013? Sorry but I wanted to lay this out.What do you guys think?

I don't want to think it will be in 2013. I hope it happens by fallnext year.

[whereismygclost]

Hope you are correct my friend. But the big unknown is SOFAD for 2012 ... if it is not close to 20K ,it's curtains for us in 2012 ..

I don't want to think it will be in 2013. I hope it happens by fallnext year.

[harick]

I liked the idea suggested by Spec and others on having a new thread of next year. Instead of going to a new thread I think it woud be better to move all posts starting from #4 to the comments entered till 08/08/2011 to a read only thread for future reference and keep this thread for next year's predictions.

I think due to high popularity of this specific thread, the search index for this thread in all search engines would be high. This would make it easy for any new comers to search this thread. If we start a new thread may be it might not be as easily searchable as this one.

Just a thought.

[velugc]

I don't want to think it will be in 2013. I hope it happens by fallnext year.

PD date looks close (6 months) but we are too far...

[needid]

Thanks Spec, But this is demand,

Projected Visa Allocation(Allow to file I-485 and eligibility for EAD,AP):
Supply 5K is guaranteed. SOFAD does not happen till July( No March, No April, Let us not have false hopes), They'll do only in July.Even in July they need to keep aside some number for unexpected surge of ROW. So in July they'll make it Current for EB2 IC. If they don't have any application in their kitty, they make it Current, that is what they have been doing, that is what they do. They are not doing it for all categories as in 2007, only for extra two(I,C) in EB2. I don't think they'll buy into concept of controlled forward movement.

Actual Visa Allocation*Green Card):
Stop anywhere in 2007

One thing is true, They don't care how it effects us, Their decision is based purely on how they did it in the past.Even with greater visibility of data, there are unknown especially demand of EB2 ROW and EB1, so they go buy history rather than increased visibility.

I followed prediction by Q,Teddy since IV times , 2010 it was spot on, 2011 we bought into the idea of early spill over implies more spillover. Pre-May projection by Teddy was spot on April 2007, that what he said.



Thanks for all the comments.

I don't want to add Porting as a monthly figure because, depending on the amount of SOFAD and how far the dates move, the Porting number changes too much. In reality, because of earlier PDs, it will be a reasonably fixed number.

Perhaps this makes it clearer. The figures are for EB2-IC.

The numbers assume all PWMB to the end of March are approved. The figure going into FY2012 is assumed to be 8,332 (derived from the USCIS Inventory).

The monthly figures include the proportion of the 8,332 remaining at the end of FY2011 (spread proportionately to the monthly USCIS figures) and any PWMB whose PERM was Certified after August 17 2007.

Again, the figures are based on 60% EB2, 20% denial rate, 2.05 dependent ratio, 85% of 2007 applications remain (90% for 2008).

Add your assumed Porting figure to the numbers e.g. if you think Porting will be 5,000, then to reach the end of December 2007 will require 25,888 visas (SOFAD).

Remaining from FY2011 - 8,332 (spread April 15 to Aug)

------------------- SOFAD
------------------ FY2012
Not including any Porting

April 2007 -------- 1,293
May 2007 ---------- 3,498
June 2007 --------- 6,282 (without spillover or Porting) FY2012 would end in June 2007)
July 2007 -------- 10,675
August 2007 ------ 12,860
September 2007 --- 14,778
October 2007 ----- 16,975
November 2007 ---- 19,010
December 2007 ---- 20,888 (if porting were 5,000 then 25,888 visas required to clear Dec 2007)
January 2008 ----- 23,453
February 2008 ---- 25,870
March 2008 ------- 27,856
April 2008 ------- 30,259
May 2008 --------- 32,482
June 2008 -------- 34,372
July 2008 -------- 36,174
August 2008 ------ 37,947
September 2008 --- 39,584
October 2008 ----- 41,669
November 2008 ---- 43,403
December 2008 ---- 45,226

[makmohan]

I think the whole PWMB and EB3->EB2 Porting demand is hyped. It's very hard to see any empirical evidence on the ground for the kind of demand experts are suggesting.

PWMB can be split between EB3 and EB2. EB3 PWMB do not affect any EB2 calculations. Most of EB2 PWMBs are the ones who either could not get their labor cleared in time or they waited for marriage related reasons. I think this number won't be similar to what experts are projecting.

EB3->EB2 porting looks very rosy in theory but it is equally difficult to achieve on ground. I have seen so many people "trying" for porting but haven't seen anyone really successful in doing that yet. I agree that there is a lot of talk, interest, enthusiasm about porting on forums or in lawyer offices. But this does not mean that the same number of people can have their cases converted. I think only 25% people will be successful in doing it.

Disclaimer: I am not against porting. It is a legal option available for EB3 and they have every right to use it. A person shall choose the best path suitable to him or her.

[Gclongwait]

I don't want to think it will be in 2013. I hope it happens by fallnext year.

I think if your PD is before Nov 07 you can be quite sure of getting it next year. This bulletin is disappointing but doesn't affect people with these PDs that much since it was always going to be 2012 for you. Its worst for Jan/Feb 08 PDs (like me Feb 1st 08) who were hoping for 2012 but could very well be 2013 and of course people with May/Jun 07 PD's who just missed it.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec, But this is demand,

Projected Visa Allocation(Allow to file I-485 and eligibility for EAD,AP):
Supply 5K is guaranteed. SOFAD does not happen till July( No March, No April, Let us not have false hopes), They'll do only in July.Even in July they need to keep aside some number for unexpected surge of ROW. So in July they'll make it Current for EB2 IC. If they don't have any application in their kitty, they make it Current, that is what they have been doing, that is what they do. They are not doing it for all categories as in 2007, only for extra two(I,C) in EB2. I don't think they'll buy into concept of controlled forward movement.

Actual Visa Allocation*Green Card):
Stop anywhere in 2007

One thing is true, They don't care how it effects us, Their decision is based purely on how they did it in the past.Even with greater visibility of data, there are unknown especially demand of EB2 ROW and EB1, so they go buy history rather than increased visibility.

I followed prediction by Q,Teddy since IV times , 2010 it was spot on, 2011 we bought into the idea of early spill over implies more spillover. Pre-May projection by Teddy was spot on April 2007, that what he said.needid,

Welcome to the forum.

What happened in the past is no guide to the future, but it is a fair point.

There is a fairly credible report that said that CO has asked USCIS for a breakdown of approved I-140 and will move the dates based on estimated demand from that data.

I have no idea how many pages back it is buried.

There is only one time when the debate will be settled. Either scenario is possible.

[imechanix]

SOFAD does not happen till July( No March, No April, Let us not have false hopes), They'll do only in July.Even in July they need to keep aside some number for unexpected surge of ROW. So in July they'll make it Current for EB2 IC. If they don't have any application in their kitty, they make it Current, that is what they have been doing, that is what they do.

There is one problem. If they wait until July 2012 then 2-3 months is not good enough to adjudicate cases. And there is a risk of wasting visas. The million dollar question is when will CO decide to make BTM so that we get zero visas wasted in FY 2012!

[srimurthy]

Looks like everything has gone up in smoke and the situation is as useless as it was earlier. It would have been a great idea if people are allowed to get a EAD after the 140 approval and wait till the dates are current to get the GC. That way many people from I&C in both EB 2 and 3 would be better off along with the dependents.

[bieber]

Hi, I am new to the blog,
here is my prediction for 2012,
as far as i understand INA and what i think DOS does, what CO will do is advance slowly for the 1st 2 quarters per normal country limit, that may get the demand down to about 5 K, as there will be porting and also some pwmb. in april they will have much more clear idea as to what the appx SOFAD is going to be, thats the earliest they will do some spillover, historically they have not done it before that ever. now it may take till june 2012 till they finish that 5 k.
Now as far as my reading goes DOS gets its demand from NVC as well as USCIS, and USCIS demands a number only after 485 is adjudicated/approved. so only known demand is NVC ( appx 4372 till today) now whenever they decide to open up the gates they have to go by visible demand, ( thus the 2007 fiasco, DOS knew tht there was demand, but no visible demand was there)
i think post 2007 they have improved their act and they communicate well, but there is no indication that uscis knows the exact breakdown of 140 as they do for 485 ( i read somewhere that they are working on it and may be ready by april 2012) also even if they know the number for the 140 extrapolation from there to 485 is a big guess, and whatever they do if uscis gets inendentated with thousands of 485 they will not be able to approve anything before 6 months, so the only way forward in my opinion is to go by NVC demand and give a big BTM and retrogress in oct 2012, i doubt there can be SFM after aug 07, as the demand from USCIS is unknown and it takes 6 months to develop the pipeline
please comment

Welcome to the forum, I think your post makes a lot of sense

[nishant2200]

There is one problem. If they wait until July 2012 then 2-3 months is not good enough to adjudicate cases. And there is a risk of wasting visas. The million dollar question is when will CO decide to make BTM so that we get zero visas wasted in FY 2012!

Even if they do it late, and not enough EB2 I/C get documentarily qualified for visa number, then the numbers can flow down to EB3 ROW, so no wastage. Now there are theories that before doing that, they need to make EB2 Current. I do see language in the Numerical Allocation Process on DOS website which may be behind this reasoning, but is it really Law, are they bound to it. I need to be educated on that.

[neospeed]

Even if they do it late, and not enough EB2 I/C get documentarily qualified for visa number, then the numbers can flow down to EB3 ROW, so no wastage. Now there are theories that before doing that, they need to make EB2 Current. I do see language in the Numerical Allocation Process on DOS website which may be behind this reasoning, but is it really Law, are they bound to it. I need to be educated on that.

wow nice to see nishanth back into action after some break :).

[nishant2200]

btw, we broke the 387 concurrent users record yesterday.

"Most users ever online was 424, Yesterday at 01:08 PM."

[nishant2200]

wow nice to see nishanth back into action after some break :).

neospeed. Thanks for the welcome. You are the internet search zen-master. Your skills have not gone un-noticed sensei :)

[vedu]

Guys,

I was looking at the trackitt I-485 inventory and noticed that some cases show nationality as "India" and Country of Chargeability as some other country. What does this mean? Is it possible that these cases are counted towards ROW?

Another related thing I noticed is that there are approximately 200 cases on trackitt with Indian nationality and with priority dates ranging from March 2011 to August, 2007. Most of these cases are already greened because the country of chargeability is different. So, the question is do we need to reduce our PERM (India) inventory accordingly. We obtained the existing PERM India numbers by filtering on the "Nationality", and not necessarily on the "Country of chargeability".

[nishant2200]

Some lessons learnt, just self talking here.

1. CO really meant it when he said that when dates reach August 15th 2007, he will look into 140 statistics obtained from USCIS with regards to deciding how much to move forward. No indication obtained about timing for this, with regards to doing it on time, to utilize the SO for EB2 I/C as much as possible. This also kind of reduces merit to the hope that they would make EB2 Current at this tipping point. I hope good sense prevails and he realizes need to do some movement early on to make pipeline.
2. The VO seems to be a fair processor in my opinion. When they saw 12k could officially be given from EB1 early on in the FY, they did so with a proper announcement. When they saw later that they need to throttle back because more EB1, EB2 ROW are being qualified, they did so. I personally don't think there is any hidden agenda, or anything personal, against any particular category, group or country.
3. CO will not shy away from doing early SO next FY too, if EB1 continues to be tormented by Kazarian. However, he does monitor progress closely each month, on a VB by VB basis.
4. NVC fee notices are no guarantee that the dates will move so shortly. You have to pay fees within a year, or your case is considered abandoned. Once you pay fees, they are valid forever.
5. Trackitt trend is surprisingly quite reliable.

[bieber]

Guys,

I was looking at the trackitt I-485 inventory and noticed that some cases show nationality as "India" and Country of Chargeability as some other country. What does this mean? Is it possible that these cases are counted towards ROW?

Another related thing I noticed is that there are approximately 200 cases on trackitt with Indian nationality and with priority dates ranging from March 2011 to August, 2007. Most of these cases are already greened because the country of chargeability is different. So, the question is do we need to reduce our PERM (India) inventory accordingly. We obtained the existing PERM India numbers by filtering on the "Nationality", and not necessarily on the "Country of chargeability".

If spouce is from a different country (other than India, China), applicant can use her nationality as country of chargeability and use ROW visa

[vedu]

If spouce is from a different country (other than India, China), applicant can use her nationality as country of chargeability and use ROW visa

So, do we need to deduct these cases from our current annual perm number calculations?

[nishant2200]

Country of Chargeability is what counts.

Where you born, that's the country of chargeability. In fact, you can even count your spouse's country of birth as chargability if that favors you. The lawyer puts a letter to USCIS indicating to charge spouse's country of birth, as there is no official box in the forms for this.

Let me give you one workflow, which I believe causes significant bleeding from EB2 ROW, which could have come to us.

Many indians settled in middle east many years back. Many of them are quite well off. Their kids born in middle east (Dubai, UAE, etc). They send these kids to India on engineering, medical etc, they can afford the donation fees needed. Next these guys come to USA to do masters. And next when they start working, few years down the line, EB2 ROW, since they were not born in India. I believe children of Indians born in foreign countries like this, are occupying a fair chunk of EB2 ROW. Trackitt trend maybe analysed to come to some formal percentage.

Very good observation vedu. I was just telling Teddy of this few days back.

Note: whatever I say, is for observation, learning, analysis purpose. Should not be counted as my positive or negative opinion about such events or workflows. It is what it is..


Guys,

I was looking at the trackitt I-485 inventory and noticed that some cases show nationality as "India" and Country of Chargeability as some other country. What does this mean? Is it possible that these cases are counted towards ROW?

Another related thing I noticed is that there are approximately 200 cases on trackitt with Indian nationality and with priority dates ranging from March 2011 to August, 2007. Most of these cases are already greened because the country of chargeability is different. So, the question is do we need to reduce our PERM (India) inventory accordingly. We obtained the existing PERM India numbers by filtering on the "Nationality", and not necessarily on the "Country of chargeability".

[bieber]

4. NVC fee notices are no guarantee that the dates will move so shortly. You have to pay fees within a year, or your case is considered abandoned. Once you pay fees, they are valid forever.


May be they will use that number to setting up cut off date incase CIS doesn't have demand (temporarily)

[veni001]

I have a doubt

After all the documentarily qualified E1, E2 row are alloted visa numbers , let us imagine there is some extras remaining say 100 could it be alloted to IC already pre- adjudicated with PD post Apr 15 , eventhough the PD is not moved .

Nope, as per law they can not assign/issue VISA number unless PD is current!

[bieber]

So, do we need to deduct these cases from our current annual perm number calculations?

Certainly, Veni and Spec did the thourough analysis around this and let's see if if they think this is significant

[nishant2200]

So, do we need to deduct these cases from our current annual perm number calculations?

Hmm. good point. Here is meaning of the column in PERM as per the flddatacenter website.

COUNTRY_OF_CITZENSHIP Country of citizenship of the foreign worker being sponsored by the employer for permanent employment in the United States.

So now, this is different than what actually counts, which is the Country of Chargeability.

Need to find out from trackitt trend, how many people with Nationality India, but Chargeability Not India, which can give some sort of indicator. Maybe it's very small. Maybe its not that small.

[rahil1]

Any amount of calculations cannot predict anything about the bulletin movement and there is nno rhyme or reason..It is just random. I have been a little bitter as I missed the date by 17 days... However I am happy that my pd is not april15 and that would have been terrible..

[whereismygclost]

Spot on Nishant. I know at least 3 cases which exactly comply point by point to what you laid out of Indians born in Dubai/UAE. They were my engineering classmates in India,did their Masters and got GC in EB2-ROW (long long ago and I am still in the rut ). However I don't know if we extrapolate will these cases amount to a significant number.

Country of Chargeability is what counts.

Where you born, that's the country of chargeability. In fact, you can even count your spouse's country of birth as chargability if that favors you. The lawyer puts a letter to USCIS indicating to charge spouse's country of birth, as there is no official box in the forms for this.

Let me give you one workflow, which I believe causes significant bleeding from EB2 ROW, which could have come to us.

Many indians settled in middle east many years back. Many of them are quite well off. Their kids born in middle east (Dubai, UAE, etc). They send these kids to India on engineering, medical etc, they can afford the donation fees needed. Next these guys come to USA to do masters. And next when they start working, few years down the line, EB2 ROW, since they were not born in India. I believe children of Indians born in foreign countries like this, are occupying a fair chunk of EB2 ROW. Trackitt trend maybe analysed to come to some formal percentage.

Very good observation vedu. I was just telling Teddy of this few days back.

Note: whatever I say, is for observation, learning, analysis purpose. Should not be counted as my positive or negative opinion about such events or workflows. It is what it is..

[Spectator]

Hmm. good point. Here is meaning of the column in PERM as per the flddatacenter website.

COUNTRY_OF_CITZENSHIP Country of citizenship of the foreign worker being sponsored by the employer for permanent employment in the United States.

So now, this is different than what actually counts, which is the Country of Chargeability.

Need to find out from trackitt trend, how many people with Nationality India, but Chargeability Not India, which can give some sort of indicator. Maybe it's very small. Maybe its not that small.As has been pointed out, the only information in the PERM data is on Nationality.

To date, this year, about 3.5% of EB2 approvals with Indian Nationality have a different Country of Chargeability.

Last year, the figure was around 2.5%.

There are a smaller number where the Nationality is ROW and the C of C is Indian.

In my own calculations, I am discarding 30% of the original PERM cases as making it to I-485 approval.

I am happy that this can include any C of C discrepancies.

Your mileage may vary.

[gcseeker]

Kanmani

Maybe the next step will be for lobby groups to challenge the Kazarian memo legally in a pro business court district and get it overturned. There are too many unknowns from the policy side which can completely throw all these calculations out of the window.

1.Kazarian memo and implications-Legal overturn---or Lawyers learn to game the system next year can cause EB1 surge
2.Porting -Nobody knows..6K is the upper limit...will it increase beyond that...possibility ? maybe ?
3.We are continously assuming the CO will not waste visas and there is some law somewhere which mandates that the spillover flow to EB2.He might very well decide not to build an pipeline and make the visas flow down to EB3-ROW.

Only positive might be the economic recession which is looming on the horizon and might increase SOFAD(keyword might...)

CO might be an nice human being.He might be acting rationally without bias towards any particular visa category.At the end of the day movement for next year beyond 2007 is not guaranteed in any way .Even movement within 2007 is at the mercy of the economy , kazarian memo , porting and internal guidelines.


Regarding Kazarian memo , AILA shared their concerns over numerous RFEs and rejections, but USCIS replied that as per the judgement they have no other choice other than to verify both quantity and quality of the evidences separately i.e, in two steps .

So until the filers find a route to tackle the RFEs , Eb1 usage is expected to be same.

[iamdeb]

Under these trying conditions, what are the options for persons whose I 140 has been approved but havn't been able to file I 485 yet?

a) Move to a different city and different project with same employer and working on different tools and platform but similar role.
b) Move to a different city and different project with same employer and with different role as well.
c) Staying in same project but getting promoted.
d) Switching jobs to a new employer. Will I be able to capture my old PD if my employer withdraws my I 140?
Which one of the above 4 is a feasible option?

[soggadu]

On a lighter vein, my minds eye view of what Q looks like has suddenly become the spitting image of Shrek!

I can't shake it for the moment.

who said number crunchers doesn't have sense of humor...:-) :-)

[Sandeep2011]

If spouce is from a different country (other than India, China), applicant can use her nationality as country of chargeability and use ROW visa

Also, your country of chargeability is dependent on your country of birth. So, if an Indian citizen was born in Kuwait, they will be considered under ROW.

[RRRRRR]

Hi All,

We have been talking about that visa numbers will be wasted if a BTM or a Small Movement does not happen in Q1/Q2 for EB2. I might be wrong but isn't that possible that CO stays put on EB2 and rather then opening the gates he will trickle the visa numbers down to Eb3 which will give the Eb3 people an opportunity to be happy about. I mean we have a huge backlog of Eb3 and i don't think visa will be wasted in that case. Please suggest

[soggadu]

Hi All,

We have been talking about that visa numbers will be wasted if a BTM or a Small Movement does not happen in Q1/Q2 for EB2. I might be wrong but isn't that possible that CO stays put on EB2 and rather then opening the gates he will trickle the visa numbers down to Eb3 which will give the Eb3 people an opportunity to be happy about. I mean we have a huge backlog of Eb3 and i don't think visa will be wasted in that case. Please suggest

By law, all EB2 has to be current to spill visas over to any EB3

[skpanda]

This is possible. If USCIS does not have enough approved EB2 applications to meet next year's spillover, the numbers will trickle down to EB3 (ROW).

However they can do that only when Entire EB2 category is current.

Example: There were around 10K EB1 and 20K EB2-ROW 485s pending 2 months ago. However EB2 IC got spillover inspite of pending applications. Only reason for that was that EB1 and EB2-ROW were CURRENT.

So yes, there is a chance that EB3 (ROW) may get spillover if EB2 does not have enough approved applications but the caveat for DOS/USCIS is they will have to make EB2 current (which i think will be a blessing in disguise for EB2 people.. although there will be a slight delay in getting their GCs.. but then good news is you can have EAD/AP and may not really care about the actual GC).

Makse sense?


Hi All,

We have been talking about that visa numbers will be wasted if a BTM or a Small Movement does not happen in Q1/Q2 for EB2. I might be wrong but isn't that possible that CO stays put on EB2 and rather then opening the gates he will trickle the visa numbers down to Eb3 which will give the Eb3 people an opportunity to be happy about. I mean we have a huge backlog of Eb3 and i don't think visa will be wasted in that case. Please suggest

[nishant2200]

sogaddu, who are the three ladies standing behind you in your avatar.

[nishant2200]

skpanda, I am starting to believe more in this now. So then two observations:
1. They realize SO more, need pipeline, late in the game, leading to Current for EB2 and SO to EB3 ROW. Good for bigger picture because lots of guys get EAD/AP.
2. They realize SO more, need pipeline, early in the game, leading to BTM/UFM, and few people get guaranteed GC, and a few get EAD, and very less SO to EB3 ROW.

Of course these are just two hypothetical situations out of a myriad of scenarios.


This is possible. If USCIS does not have enough approved EB2 applications to meet next year's spillover, the numbers will trickle down to EB3 (ROW).

However they can do that only when Entire EB2 category is current.

Example: There were around 10K EB1 and 20K EB2-ROW 485s pending 2 months ago. However EB2 IC got spillover inspite of pending applications. Only reason for that was that EB1 and EB2-ROW were CURRENT.

So yes, there is a chance that EB3 (ROW) may get spillover if EB2 does not have enough approved applications but the caveat for DOS/USCIS is they will have to make EB2 current (which i think will be a blessing in disguise for EB2 people.. although there will be a slight delay in getting their GCs.. but then good news is you can have EAD/AP and may not really care about the actual GC).

Makse sense?

[skpanda]

Actually when i was talking to my gal before Sept 2011 VB, I talked about these scenarios. Ofcourse there were three more scenarios for Sept 2011 at the time

0a. EB2 IC move by 2+ months
0b. EB2 IC move to around April 2008 for BTM.
0c. EB2 IC are current to take extreme BTM

All these 3 have gone down the bin....hopefully scenario 1 that you mentioned occurs (keeping in mind the large picture that entire EB2 community will get help and few thousand GCs will go down to EB3 which badly needs a break)



skpanda, I am starting to believe more in this now. So then two observations:
1. They realize SO more, need pipeline, late in the game, leading to Current for EB2 and SO to EB3 ROW. Good for bigger picture because lots of guys get EAD/AP.
2. They realize SO more, need pipeline, early in the game, leading to BTM/UFM, and few people get guaranteed GC, and very less SO to EB3 ROW.

[nishant2200]

I wouldn't mind Case 1, everyone gets EAD, although I may "loose" my GC that year because of this.


Actually when i was talking to my gal before Sept 2011 VB, I talked about these scenarios. Ofcourse there were three more scenarios for Sept 2011 at the time

0a. EB2 IC move by 2+ months
0b. EB2 IC move to around April 2008 for BTM.
0c. EB2 IC are current to take extreme BTM

All these 3 have gone down the bin....hopefully scenario 1 that you mentioned occurs (keeping in mind the large picture that entire EB2 community will get help and few thousand GCs will go down to EB3 which badly needs a break)

[skpanda]

thats very kind heart of yours speaking... good news is your GC will be delayed by a maximum of 1 year. You will have EAD and AP.. so will the entire EB2 community.


However.. i have set my expectations low and will stick to the rule of PD + 4 years for EAD in EB2. (Mine is Dec 2010 and 2014 is the magic year for me.. if I choose to wait that long :) ).


I wouldn't mind Case 1, everyone gets EAD, although I may "loose" my GC that year because of this.

[mvinayam]

Gurus,

Is there any possibilty for the PD to go forward atleast till July 1st 2007 before the Spillover season begins in May/June 2012????

[skpanda]

It may be possible.. but that is a speculation. No body can accurately predict that.

If DOS/USCIS decide to be ultra conservative like the current year, the dates will be stuck at 15 Apr 2007 till April/May 2012. Reason for that is PWMBs and Porting applications with PD beofre 15 Apr 2007 will eat away the monthly allocations of 230.

I know you know this... but good news is that you will definately have your GC by end of FY 2012. I know the wait time is painful but then there is nothign that you can do about it. If you set your expecations low and dates actually move to July 2007 before May/ June 2012.. that will be a pleasent outcome. Easier said than done... neways.. Good Luck!


Gurus,

Is there any possibilty for the PD to go forward atleast till July 1st 2007 before the Spillover season begins in May/June 2012????

[iamdeb]

skpanda, I am starting to believe more in this now. So then two observations:
1. They realize SO more, need pipeline, late in the game, leading to Current for EB2 and SO to EB3 ROW. Good for bigger picture because lots of guys get EAD/AP.
2. They realize SO more, need pipeline, early in the game, leading to BTM/UFM, and few people get guaranteed GC, and a few get EAD, and very less SO to EB3 ROW.

Of course these are just two hypothetical situations out of a myriad of scenarios.

I also hoping for option 1. Do you see either of the options being exercised in near future?

[nishant2200]

I also hoping for option 1. Do you see either of the options being exercised in near future?

I personally don't see them making EB2 current. July 2007 will not be repeated. They will strategize, work their way around it. How, I don't know yet.

But since I don't have any data/facts yet to base this on, and neither do we have any data/facts yet to say they will make it current, we just have to base it on perception and intent of trend. CO uses words like he thinks it's extremely unwise ... So he believes in "wisdom". Can't read his mind. Also I don't think he is only person deciding all this, his hands are tied by law and consensus with USCIS, I would like to say.