EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

My entire portfolio is down 10% today! 50% tied to Chinese stocks. They are getting a beating 3-5 times DJI.


Q

give some good news from your source, almost puked when i just saw the afternoon market update. 15% down in 1 week

[leo07]

Thanks Spec.
I understand that they represent net change, +X and -X cancel out and may not show up in the entire result.

On a higher level, say EB3I in a given year must get 3k visas and if the inventory & demand data, compared to the demand data go down by more than 3k, that is porting?



leo,

Both the Demand Data and USCIS Inventories provide net changes between them.

That is, there are additions and subtractions. If you don't know one of these, you can't calculate the other.

e.g. a net reduction of 100 might be zero additions and 100 reductions, or it can equally be 50 additions and 150 reductions. Without knowing the additions, it is impossible to know the reduction.

If you assume no additions, you will underestimate the reductions.

[kkurasa]

I guess I had the same question as Mesan as to what effect this stock market is going to affect immigration in the long term ? Most people speculate that we might be headed into a double dip recession and what are the Feds going to do about it ? Short term might not have any affect for the next couple of months, but if things aren't going to improve by April / May of 2012, what are the long term effects ?

Sorry for going off topic from the calculations, but felt i just had to chime in here.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends now we have more approvals coming up on Trackitt. This based on the Approval date in Aug.

EB2 - India - 16
EB2 - China - 2
EB2 and NIW - ROW - 6
EB1 - 5
EB3 - 15

The percentage share of EB2 - I +C is below 50% now, EB3 India cases are being posted in large numbers. EB2 ROW and EB1 seem to e normal bounds, the volume of EB2 I/C needs to be higher considering the fact that even Jul cases are being approved now.

[soggadu]

Actually, I have a different take here. There will be a direct impact of market-direction ON immigration on a long-term basis ( 1-2 years). Sudden fluctuations will NOT have impact on immigration. Any sustained/continued fluctuation will also NOT have impact on immediate (3-6 months) Visa bulletins.

So explain me what we gained/lost from 2008-2011 w.r.t immigration in conjunction with market... Please dont tell me about spilover as the spilover starting from 2007 was being applied to EB2 as an adminstrative fix... anything else?

[belmontboy]

my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....

yes, either of those will cause gas! :)

[soggadu]

Beans or potatos you have something to eat....:)

I am not mixing anything shoban babu, just wanted to understand, as i saw few posts where gurus mentioned that 2008 & 2009( less EB1) bcoz of recession.

Actually i dont mind if it doesnt change....but i will feel bad if the dates retrogress bcoz of this changes in USA... :)

already atleast i have long wait....i dont want other changes bring evenmore wait for us (people with priority date 2010 nd 2011)

wohi toh...everybdy say's about less EB1 in 2008 and 2009 but not much spilover available if u see the real numbers... those numbers (EB1) decreased recently due to stringent rules rather than market down trend...and i am not a real supporter of market vs immigration numbers theory....

[qesehmk]

I thought this was discussed earlier but wouldn't hurt to repeat. IMHO bad economy means more SOFAD.

The bumber crop of SOFAD we have this year owes a lot to bad economy as much as it owes to kazarian memo. Otherwise there obviously would be much more applications in EB1 and EB2ROW. So going forward if the economy tanks ... the chances of better SOFAD increases.



I guess I had the same question as Mesan as to what effect this stock market is going to affect immigration in the long term ? Most people speculate that we might be headed into a double dip recession and what are the Feds going to do about it ? Short term might not have any affect for the next couple of months, but if things aren't going to improve by April / May of 2012, what are the long term effects ?

Sorry for going off topic from the calculations, but felt i just had to chime in here.

[harick]

I did a comparison between June Demand data and September demand data for EB3I for calculating porting numbers. it came to roughly 230 cases per month. Here are my calculations


As per June demand data

On Jan 01, 2003 EB3I has a demand of 6.900
by Jan 01, 2011 EB3I has a demand of 57,400

Demand added betwenn Jan 2003 and Jan 2011 by June is 50,500

As per September demand data

On Jan 01, 2003 EB3I has a demand of 5,675
on Jan 01, 2011 EB3I has a demand of 55,250

demand added between Jan 2003 and Jan 2011 by Sepetember is 49,725.

From June to September the demand for EB3I has reduced from 50,500 to 49,725 which is a reduction of 925 for four months (or 232 per month). Most likely all these might have ported to EB2, if we think there are no denials.

I took Jan 01. 2003 as starting date because CUD did not cross this date so there is no chance of getting approvals under EB3I category for anybody applied after Jan01, 2003.

Gurus, Does it make sense?


How big is Porting actually?

There is big talk in internet forums about Porting being happening left and right but I believe it’s not as big as we all think.

There are total of 5 scenarios possible in Porting:

i) Porting within the same company - We all know that this involves lot of risk as the new job responsibility (2nd PERM) has to be 50% different to that of the original PERM. Having said that still the case may go into an Audit queue and could get stuck there for months and even years. It also needs a lot of convincing because it costs lot of money.

ii) Moving from Desi consultant to Full Time - This is by far the best option why people go for Porting. Even in this route the person may have to wait 6 months/ 1 year before the employer can start the process. Add to that 8 months for Labor and 140 and another 6 months for USCIS to eventually get to the case and close it based on earlier priority date. We are talking 2 years easily.

iii) Moving from Full Time to Desi Consultant- People generally don't go for this because typically full time employees enjoy lots of benefits and would have bought houses and kind of settled. They don't want to get into an unpredictable world of Consulting with market being as bad as it is. Moreover Desi consultants will not get any benefit out of this person if he stays for less than a year. Hence they would not be in any hurry to start the GC processing.

iv) Moving from one Desi to another Desi - I don't see any advantage because of reasons seen above.

v) Moving from Full Time to another Full Time - This is worth a gamble but still no one would risk their current employment in the present market.

Finally there is this biggest fear in everyone's mind that what if something goes wrong in the middle. Let’s play it safe….

I feel this whole Porting stuff has been simply blown out of proportion.
Comments are welcome!!!

[soggadu]

I thought this was discussed earlier but wouldn't hurt to repeat. IMHO bad economy means more SOFAD.

The bumber crop of SOFAD we have this year owes a lot to bad economy as much as it owes to kazarian memo. Otherwise there obviously would be much more applications in EB1 and EB2ROW. So going forward if the economy tanks ... the chances of better SOFAD increases.

Q, i am not sure on that...if it is about bad economy, then what happened in 2008 and 2009 when the economy is worse than 2010... i guess we have seen steady flow is EB1's and only less than 3 or 4K spilover from EB1 each season... last year SOFAD is due to family visas which is irrespective of economy... please correct me if i am wrong...

[soggadu]

I guess I had the same question as Mesan as to what effect this stock market is going to affect immigration in the long term ? Most people speculate that we might be headed into a double dip recession and what are the Feds going to do about it ? Short term might not have any affect for the next couple of months, but if things aren't going to improve by April / May of 2012, what are the long term effects ?

Sorry for going off topic from the calculations, but felt i just had to chime in here.

If at all there would be a double dip...the immigration scenario would be same as what happened between 2008 and 2010...i.e. nothing big happens...

[kkurasa]

Thanks Q, I must have missed that discussion since I do try to read every night from the last bookmark, but sometimes notice that some of the discussions may have been moved. Well hopefully this does lead to more SOFAD for next year with less people applying in EB1 but lets see what the next 3 -4 months look like.


I thought this was discussed earlier but wouldn't hurt to repeat. IMHO bad economy means more SOFAD.

The bumber crop of SOFAD we have this year owes a lot to bad economy as much as it owes to kazarian memo. Otherwise there obviously would be much more applications in EB1 and EB2ROW. So going forward if the economy tanks ... the chances of better SOFAD increases.

[kkurasa]

Thanks Q, I must have missed that discussion since I do try to read every night from the last bookmark, but sometimes notice that some of the discussions may have been moved. Well hopefully this does lead to more SOFAD for next year with less people applying in EB1 but lets see what the next 3 -4 months look like.


I thought this was discussed earlier but wouldn't hurt to repeat. IMHO bad economy means more SOFAD.

The bumber crop of SOFAD we have this year owes a lot to bad economy as much as it owes to kazarian memo. Otherwise there obviously would be much more applications in EB1 and EB2ROW. So going forward if the economy tanks ... the chances of better SOFAD increases.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Agree with you soggadubhai.

I don't know much about economy but after the Kazarian Memo, EB1 approval has gone down or at least delayed.

One of my senior who is just a general internist had his EB1B approved within 27 days. His application was pretty weak to qualify for EB1B with only 1 or 2 publications but he and his attorney presented his case extremely well to USCIS backed up with some very strong recommendations letters from reputed institutions like Mayo Clinic, Cleveland Clinic, Johns Hopkins etc. This happened before Kazarian Memo came out.

Recently, one of my other senior who did his Pediatric Cardiology from University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, had 6-8 publications as first author and also had very strong recommendation letters, was rejected by USCIS saying that the evidence was not enough for the agency to qualify him to obtain GC under EB1B. It took 4 months to take this decision. He already has his GC filed under EB2NIW and has an approved I140.

The point is there are lot of people I know from my profession who had dubious credentials to qualify under EB1A or EB1B, and still had approvals. Post-Kazarian Memo, I am pretty sure they all would be either denied or at least delayed.

[mesan123]

wohi me bhi boltihum...i saw few posts where they mentioned it has effect , but i couldnot decode how...may be i m bad in grasping stuff, so i asked the question again... mynumber calculation expertise is less( i am still in process of understanding the great people(fab 4) calculations , i am sure i will understand them 100% by the time i become current :) )

Anyway Q cleared my questions that it will be few more SOAFD if the recession happens....

by the way how was the potato curry:)


wohi toh...everybdy say's about less EB1 in 2008 and 2009 but not much spilover available if u see the real numbers... those numbers (EB1) decreased recently due to stringent rules rather than market down trend...and i am not a real supporter of market vs immigration numbers theory....

[qesehmk]

Last 2 years were spent completely cleaning up EB2ROW and EB1 backlogs. And by backlog I mean not just 485, but all teh way back to labor.

That's is like doing a complete transmission flush on EB1 and EB2ROW pipeline. Without that EB2I would already be past Aug2007. Last year, when the 485 and 140 pipelines were already exhausted, there was PERM surge which hindered EB2IC chances.

Going forward Kazarian memo certainly has again done some buildup. But hopefully the demand itself will slow down and we will continue to see healthy SOFAD.


Q, i am not sure on that...if it is about bad economy, then what happened in 2008 and 2009 when the economy is worse than 2010... i guess we have seen steady flow is EB1's and only less than 3 or 4K spilover from EB1 each season... last year SOFAD is due to family visas which is irrespective of economy... please correct me if i am wrong...

[qesehmk]

Right now generally people agree that there will be 16-18K SOFAD next year which would mean EB2IC backlog through Q1 2008 will be cleared by Sep 2012.


Thanks Q, I must have missed that discussion since I do try to read every night from the last bookmark, but sometimes notice that some of the discussions may have been moved. Well hopefully this does lead to more SOFAD for next year with less people applying in EB1 but lets see what the next 3 -4 months look like.

[leo07]

Soggadu,

Spillover, whether it's happening to EB2 or EB3 or some other category is a direct result. Lot of strict regulations, including kazarian memo are all direct results of economy. If Economy is so much better as in 98-99-2000, there will not be enough people crying out for regulations.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one. This would be my last post on this topic:)




So explain me what we gained/lost from 2008-2011 w.r.t immigration in conjunction with market... Please dont tell me about spilover as the spilover starting from 2007 was being applied to EB2 as an adminstrative fix... anything else?

[soggadu]

Last 2 years were spent completely cleaning up EB2ROW and EB1 backlogs. And by backlog I mean not just 485, but all teh way back to labor.

That's is like doing a complete transmission flush on EB1 and EB2ROW pipeline. Without that EB2I would already be past Aug2007. Last year, when the 485 and 140 pipelines were already exhausted, there was PERM surge which hindered EB2IC chances.

Going forward Kazarian memo certainly has again done some buildup. But hopefully the demand itself will slow down and we will continue to see healthy SOFAD.

I understand we need to be hopeful but doesn't want to sound that it is a definite shot... just remembering what i have seen for past 2 yrs... in 2008/2009 i thought i will be able to file for EAD with PD oct 2007 as the economy was like depression...but it didnt happen... and i dont want people to have same hopes to see them go down this time too....
you are saying backlogged labors and 140's for EB1 would go on for more than year and that too in 2008/2009... i am not sure Q bhai... even if that is the case, those unfortunate numbers are really low in comparision...
Anyway i am resting my argument now and let you all deal with numbers... i think i have made my point...

[leo07]

Thanks TeddyK!

So, EB2 is hovering @40%...in your terms, it's down from 80-85% from previous months?
Also, do we know why EB3 picked up major share at this juncture? ( like any possible theories)


Friends now we have more approvals coming up on Trackitt. This based on the Approval date in Aug.

EB2 - India - 16
EB2 - China - 2
EB2 and NIW - ROW - 6
EB1 - 5
EB3 - 15

The percentage share of EB2 - I +C is below 50% now, EB3 India cases are being posted in large numbers. EB2 ROW and EB1 seem to e normal bounds, the volume of EB2 I/C needs to be higher considering the fact that even Jul cases are being approved now.

[jackbrown_890]

If at all there would be a double dip...the immigration scenario would be same as what happened between 2008 and 2010...i.e. nothing big happens...

I think the effect of the recession was felt on EB Category months/years after it ended. That is the reason we got few thousands of extra Spillover visas in 2011. And if there is a double dip (i doubt) next next 2 quarters, we will see more spillover sooner in 2012.

recession = bad economy = fewer jobs = less hiring = less number of immigrants getting jobs = fewer EB ROW applications = more spillover to EB2 I/C

[mesan123]

This shows how much our fab 4 thread is famous...kudos guys ... :)

'There are currently 204 users browsing this thread. (34 members and 170 guests)'

[aary09]

Bro, there you go....easy & hard



mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...

did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...

my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....

[qesehmk]

soggadu I know exactly why you have dim hopes on the linkage between bad economy and SOFAD. But what I have quoted is real. Indeed USCIS scraped through the entire supply chain of GC applications for EB1 and EB2ROW. So the only way EB1 and EB2ROW can hurt is by increases new receipts. And how is that going to happen in this kind of economic environment?

Stay put!! Good things will happen to you.



I understand we need to be hopeful but doesn't want to sound that it is a definite shot... just remembering what i have seen for past 2 yrs... in 2008/2009 i thought i will be able to file for EAD with PD oct 2007 as the economy was like depression...but it didnt happen... and i dont want people to have same hopes to see them go down this time too....
you are saying backlogged labors and 140's for EB1 would go on for more than year and that too in 2008/2009... i am not sure Q bhai... even if that is the case, those unfortunate numbers are really low in comparision...
Anyway i am resting my argument now and let you all deal with numbers... i think i have made my point...

[skpanda]

As in July 2011, the VB is probably going to come out tomorrow (1 day after release of Demand Data).

[bieber]

Q

sorry to hear that, I took a beating with oil.

[skpanda]

Quick Q - Does the demand data numbers include family members as well? or only the primary applicants?

[grnwtg]

soggadu I know exactly why you have dim hopes on the linkage between bad economy and SOFAD. But what I have quoted is real. Indeed USCIS scraped through the entire supply chain of GC applications for EB1 and EB2ROW. So the only way EB1 and EB2ROW can hurt is by increases new receipts. And how is that going to happen in this kind of economic environment?

Stay put!! Good things will happen to you.

Thread is going like Super Fast xpress, unable to follow the posts :(...but i guess its good if everyone is having more discussions.
Already I am 10% down in market ( hopefully this will make very less eb1 applicants in coming days and more SPILL OVER .....)

[qesehmk]

Yes ... it includes ALL "documentarily qualified" cases including AOS and CP.


Quick Q - Does the demand data numbers include family members as well? or only the primary applicants?

[nishant2200]

This shows how much our fab 4 thread is famous...kudos guys ... :)

'There are currently 204 users browsing this thread. (34 members and 170 guests)'

We were at 387 when the last VB was released, at that morning.

[iamdeb]

Yes ... it includes ALL "documentarily qualified" cases including AOS and CP.

Q any idea how many of the SOFAD has been already used and approx how many is remaining for the Sep bulletin?

Thanks,

Deb

[mesan123]

then may be the number will be high tommorow :) hope the server doesnt go down tommrow, like it happened 1 hr before..

waiting for tommorow's bulletin and also guru's responses after that.... :)


We were at 387 when the last VB was released, at that morning.

[qesehmk]

pls refer to the post #1. Also refer to about 10 pages back. There was extensive discussion about it.


Q any idea how many of the SOFAD has been already used and approx how many is remaining for the Sep bulletin?

Thanks,

Deb

[vchirakala]

Good luck to everyone waiting for Sep Bulletin ..hope it comes out tomorrow.
pls refer to the post #1. Also refer to about 10 pages back. There was extensive discussion about it.

[nishant2200]

Curtains for today. It's 5 EST.

[jackbrown_890]

will be checking Mumbai US Consulate website after 11.30 EST time to see if there is any update. in the past, couple of times they have posted VB before DoS.
Link to Mumbai Consulate CoD page: http://mumbai.usconsulate.gov/cut_off_dates.html

[pg_at_q]

There's no smoke without fire guys....As optimistic as I'd like to be...I've read at least at 3 different places that there's not going to be any substantial movement in Sept VB..(I am talking about EB2 here)...

1. Immigration-law firm website (which has just hinted though I admit)
2. Someone posted on that blog http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com saying that it'll actually retrogress a bit instead of advancing.
3. ImmigrationVoice.org website...One of the admin posted "his" analysis, which I suspect is insider news.

So all in all...my hopes of it advancing by a few months is dimmed...instead it might as well advance in weeks rather.

THe only silver lining I am expecting is something from DoS acknowledging that they have to build a pipeline now in expectation of next year SOFAD, and their plans for the same....

[soggadu]

I can see only smoke... clouding our expectations... fire will be on once the VB releases.... either way....

[nishant2200]

1. law firm's website's piece of info was a general generic disclaimer. Which CO himself puts in many bulletins. (in fact it was incorrect, they said, historically in september, dates have not moved or retro, or moved very very less, on those lines, and I put a post some pages back, showing that since last three years, movement has been at least two months or more, with no retro in following october)
2. That someone was just a anonymous user, not CM himself. CM indicates 15th June 2007, as well as his source indicates small movement, and SFM until July in new FY, with stall until May 2012, and then bigger movements, no retro.
3. the admin you mention puts in veiled hints to generate interest in people to join the cause, become donors, and participate in advocacy.

No one predicted the huge movement to March 2007 from 2006 either. So when that happened, no one blamed saying hey you guys saying less movement.

If what they say about retro etc, comes true, we will award them laurels, but if that turns out to be false, in the joy of the moment, we forget the incorrect statements.

You did nothing wrong by sharing your opinion and thoughts, keep them coming I am just putting my thoughts here, and suggesting to friends here, don't panic by such news, or disheartened.


There's no smoke without fire guys....As optimistic as I'd like to be...I've read at least at 3 different places that there's not going to be any substantial movement in Sept VB..(I am talking about EB2 here)...

1. Immigration-law firm website (which has just hinted though I admit)
2. Someone posted on that blog http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com saying that it'll actually retrogress a bit instead of advancing.
3. ImmigrationVoice.org website...One of the admin posted "his" analysis, which I suspect is insider news.

So all in all...my hopes of it advancing by a few months is dimmed...instead it might as well advance in weeks rather.

THe only silver lining I am expecting is something from DoS acknowledging that they have to build a pipeline now in expectation of next year SOFAD, and their plans for the same....

[samudrala]

I think the dates will move to Jun 15th because a similar demand (8000) was in 2008, and the dates moved from from June 1st 2006 to August 1st 2006 in Sept. Visa bulletin. I have not made any calculations, but my guess mate is June 15th 2007.

I would be very happy, If I am wrong and moves forward than 15th June.

Good Luck everyone and I hope you all are green soon.

[shaumack]

There's no smoke without fire guys....As optimistic as I'd like to be...I've read at least at 3 different places that there's not going to be any substantial movement in Sept VB..(I am talking about EB2 here)...

1. Immigration-law firm website (which has just hinted though I admit)
2. Someone posted on that blog http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com saying that it'll actually retrogress a bit instead of advancing.
3. ImmigrationVoice.org website...One of the admin posted "his" analysis, which I suspect is insider news.

So all in all...my hopes of it advancing by a few months is dimmed...instead it might as well advance in weeks rather.

THe only silver lining I am expecting is something from DoS acknowledging that they have to build a pipeline now in expectation of next year SOFAD, and their plans for the same....

Whenever we hovered like hungry dogs in the dust outside the castle for a meat, we are always given loaf of bread. So just relax and be patient, and next bulletin would be the "Feast of Hungry Ghosts".

[qesehmk]

Yes I agree. I guess its ok for people to project whatever projections as long as they don't inflate or pad them for fear or favor. I would hate it if somebody were projecting short just to play safe and tehn if dates overshot .. who remembers the short projection right?

My personal philosophy is try to have a datapoint behind anything you say or do. Because that helps us stay clear of our own emotions and gives more clarity than anything else.

Your advice about not panicking is good. That's what it is. No point in people getting panicky based on any predictions that are not solidly rooted in facts.



....
No one predicted the huge movement to March 2007 from 2006 either. So when that happened, no one blamed saying hey you guys saying less movement.

If what they say about retro etc, comes true, we will award them laurels, but if that turns out to be false, in the joy of the moment, we forget the incorrect statements.

You did nothing wrong by sharing your opinion and thoughts, keep them coming I am just putting my thoughts here, and suggesting to friends here, don't panic by such news, or disheartened.

[mesan123]

Well said Q & Nishant..




Yes I agree. I guess its ok for people to project whatever projections as long as they don't inflate or pad them for fear or favor. I would hate it if somebody were projecting short just to play safe and tehn if dates overshot .. who remembers the short projection right?

My personal philosophy is try to have a datapoint behind anything you say or do. Because that helps us stay clear of our own emotions and gives more clarity than anything else.

Your advice about not panicking is good. That's what it is. No point in people getting panicky based on any predictions that are not solidly rooted in facts.

[nishant2200]

Great point Q. Back it up with datapoint. And whatever you claim based on those data facts, if it comes untrue, or whatever deviation happens, the lesson to learn is, go back and re-calibrate, and see what you missed, so that next time, we come up with more solid prediction, based on better datapoint.

Iterative learning, that's the lifecycle of any prediction model, in any engineering or life science.

[qesehmk]

Yep!!!! Exactly. It could still turn bad. But then you go back to drawing table and recalibrate and learn.


Great point Q. Back it up with datapoint. And whatever you claim based on those data facts, if it comes untrue, the lesson to learn is, go back and re-calibrate, and see what you missed, so that next time, we come up with more solid prediction, based on better datapoint.

Iterative learning, that's the lifecycle of any prediction model, in any engineering or life science.

[pg_at_q]

Am not predicting anything here guys...the way it works atleast for me...it's a better feeling if I get AAA when the expectation is B, rather then getting a C when the expectation is AAA....Believe me..I'd be the happiest if the prediction as it's laid out on the first post of this thread turns out to be true ... I am a July 07 PD so it'll benefit me huge if the dates surpasses this range...

Since there's so many factors here, it's hard to predict the exact movement. Priorities change all the time...atleast in DoS/USCIS offices...sometimes they want to clear EB2-ROW/EB1 before they move EB2 I/C, some other times they feel EB2 I/C will get a huge spillover thus raising our anxiety unnecessarily...sometimes they think there's huge porting, some other times they believe it's been minimal...it's been such a roller-coaster ride...at least in this age of computing, USCIS should clean its house and start publishing accurate demand data as well as supply data too...damn it, it's the single agency which takes in all these applications, and is entirely funded by application fees...it should at least commit to delivering quality service.

[leo07]

pg_at_q, I respect your opinions. There is nothing to be defensive here. You stated your point and Nishanth & Q did theirs quite impressively.

Some of these websites ( excluding CM), have their own agenda, when someone with a hidden agenda says/posts even something useful, the general tendency is to take it with a grain of salt. Like Nishanth mentioned, these websites usually play it safe for donations or whatever it might be they'd have to lose, on the flip side for a incorrect prediction.

You don't have to fear that here:)

Good Luck!


Am not predicting anything here guys...the way it works atleast for me...it's a better feeling if I get AAA when the expectation is B, rather then getting a C when the expectation is AAA....Believe me..I'd be the happiest if the prediction as it's laid out on the first post of this thread turns out to be true ... I am a July 07 PD so it'll benefit me huge if the dates surpasses this range...

Since there's so many factors here, it's hard to predict the exact movement. Priorities change all the time...atleast in DoS/USCIS offices...sometimes they want to clear EB2-ROW/EB1 before they move EB2 I/C, some other times they feel EB2 I/C will get a huge spillover thus raising our anxiety unnecessarily...sometimes they think there's huge porting, some other times they believe it's been minimal...it's been such a roller-coaster ride...at least in this age of computing, USCIS should clean its house and start publishing accurate demand data as well as supply data too...damn it, it's the single agency which takes in all these applications, and is entirely funded by application fees...it should at least commit to delivering quality service.

[pg_at_q]

cool man...we are all in this together...not getting defensive...juz some frustration..chill :)

[leo07]

Agree completely. Keeping fingers crossed. CO would have decided by now... and must be watching tamasha on these forums

cool man...we are all in this together...not getting defensive...juz some frustration..chill :)

[belmontboy]

Nope, only Hillary knows

[ifaith]

Hi Gurus
My brother just received the green card yesterday and he is in China.
Can he travel on his valid H1B or does he needs to show the Green Card while entering US back.

Thank U

[qesehmk]

sorry ... my intention was not to criticize you or others. Just trying to say that try to seek facts ... that usually leads us to better understanding and avoids emotions getting better of us. Best and hope you become C tomorrow.


cool man...we are all in this together...not getting defensive...juz some frustration..chill :)

[mesan123]

Q any luck on information from your source... :)

[qesehmk]

Sorry .... none yet. Will post ASAP when hear anything. But more than likely we are going to have the bulletin tomorrow. So its not going to be useful anyway.
Q any luck on information from your source... :)

[nishant2200]

Valid H1 is ok, I believe. People in this situation have even come back on AP, without valid H1. But on re-entry, the officer will come to know that in fact now he is a permanent resident, and will most probably mark his H1 cancelled without prejudice, and officially enter him into the USA as a permanent resident.


Hi Gurus
My brother just received the green card yesterday and he is in China.
Can he travel on his valid H1B or does he needs to show the Green Card while entering US back.

Thank U

[superdesi2100]

Valid H1 is ok, I believe. People in this situation have even come back on AP, without valid H1. But on re-entry, the officer will come to know that in fact now he is a permanent resident, and will most probably mark his H1 cancelled without prejudice, and officially enter him into the USA as a permanent resident.

My cousin went through this last year. His lawyer advised him to go to the US consulate in India and have his passport stamped with an immigrant visa. The lawyer had told him at that time that as soon as the green card is issued, H1 is automatically null and void. He did go to the US consulate in Mumbai and they stamped his passport with immigrant visa there.

[samudrala]

Hi Gurus,

Sorry for the off topic. How long does it take to get the EAD/AP after filing them? My PD 06/06/2007 and say for example if i'm not current this Sept., I have to wait until May. So, If I apply in May, how many months does it take to get approved? My concern is my H1 gets expired in Aug. 2012, and my company will not give me a Client letter, which I need when I file my H1 extension.

Appreciate your help.

Thanks

[nishant2200]

My cousin went through this last year. His lawyer advised him to go to the US consulate in India and have his passport stamped with an immigrant visa. The lawyer had told him at that time that as soon as the green card is issued, H1 is automatically null and void. He did go to the US consulate in Mumbai and they stamped his passport with immigrant visa there.

very good point. H1 is automatically cancelled. Then does he have AP. I believe AP should be ok, as that's the very purpose of AP, to allow for travel during the period waiting for AOS to be completed. If he does not have AP, then immigrant visa stamp as superdesi said. Actually the immigrant visa stamp seems to be the most safe way. You can also try putting this question on Ron Gotcher's forum. Or best, take least time allowed by a lawyer, pay him, and ask the question, for sure shot answer.

[vizcard]

Hi Gurus,

Sorry for the off topic. How long does it take to get the EAD/AP after filing them? My PD 06/06/2007 and say for example if i'm not current this Sept., I have to wait until May. So, If I apply in May, how many months does it take to get approved? My concern is my H1 gets expired in Aug. 2012, and my company will not give me a Client letter, which I need when I file my H1 extension.

Appreciate your help.

Thanks
Why will your company not give you a letter? If you are a legitimate and legal employee, they should have no problem with it. If it's something less than kosher then its a different issue. I've never heard of a situation where an employer has refused docs to file an extension for their own employee.

[qesehmk]

Yes... at hte least they need the employee to sign all the documents. So did they not have you sign anything?

If I were you, my worst fears would be - whether these guys have filed a GC for you at all. Sorry to be so pessimistic but you need to ask that question hard.


Why will your company not give you a letter? If you are a legitimate and legal employee, they should have no problem with it. If it's something less than kosher then its a different issue. I've never heard of a situation where an employer has refused docs to file an extension for their own employee.

[soggadu]

Yes... at hte least they need the employee to sign all the documents. So did they not have you sign anything?

If I were you, my worst fears would be - whether these guys have filed a GC for you at all. Sorry to be so pessimistic but you need to ask that question hard.

Guys I guess the poster is referring to client providing with a letter which is used for h1 extension now a days... In my opinion nothing relating to his parent company but client where he is working as a consultant not providing the supporting letter...

[vizcard]

Guys I guess the poster is referring to client providing with a letter which is used for h1 extension now a days... In my opinion nothing relating to his parent company but client where he is working as a consultant not providing the supporting letter...
The only situation where this may come up is if his "parent" company is a temp staffing agency (in which case there is no "parent" company). For a regular employment (non-temps), he shouldn't need a letter from a client if he is a full time employee and is getting paid by his parent company.

I work as a management consultant for a Big 4 Firm. I don't need letters from my clients for my H1. The paperwork that my firm submits basically states that I am an employee of the firm, my job role and responsibilities are such and such, they are paying me $xyz and they intend to keep me employed as a full time employee. I have NEVER had an issue with this.

[samudrala]

Yes... at hte least they need the employee to sign all the documents. So did they not have you sign anything?

If I were you, my worst fears would be - whether these guys have filed a GC for you at all. Sorry to be so pessimistic but you need to ask that question hard.


Sorry, I should have been more clear on my question.

I work for a Desi company which has about 100 employees. My client is not willing to give me the client letter(Thank you for Soggadu for referring it in earlier post). Last time when I had my 3 yrs extension, I was with a different client and I could able to get an extension for 3 yrs without any issues since the client provided me a client letter. But this time the Client (one of the biggest banking company in USA) is not ready to provide me the client letter.

If I could get my EAD/AP (Not intrested in AP at this point of time as I dont have plans to travel) I would not need to worry about it.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

I don't think you need a client letter.

As long as your employer gives you an employment letter ... thats fine. I agree w Vizcard, I really don't know why this should be an issue at all.

Sorry, I should have been more clear on my question.

I work for a Desi company which has about 100 employees. My client is not willing to give me the client letter(Thank you for Soggadu for referring it in earlier post). Last time when I had my 3 yrs extension, I was with a different client and I could able to get an extension for 3 yrs without any issues since the client provided me a client letter. But this time the Client (one of the biggest banking company in USA) is not ready to provide me the client letter.

If I could get my EAD/AP (Not intrested in AP at this point of time as I dont have plans to travel) I would not need to worry about it.

Thanks

[samudrala]

I don't think you need a client letter.

As long as your employer gives you an employment letter ... thats fine. I agree w Vizcard, I really don't know why this should be an issue at all.

Thank you Q, but these days you need to provide a client letter to get an extension, also when you go for visa stamping.

[qesehmk]

i wonder whether your company can give you a copy of contract and their own declaration that you will be the resource on this project?


Thank you Q, but these days you need to provide a client letter to get an extension, also when you go for visa stamping.

[visagcinfo]

Q..
If one is employed with a consulting company: Unless you have a client letter, very good chance that you will get an RFE for extension. 221g guaranteed if applying from India. Then, remember proving employer-employee relationship. 2 key documentation one has to have to expect to get thru without RFE while applying extension.

[soggadu]

i wonder whether your company can give you a copy of contract and their own declaration that you will be the resource on this project?

As I mentioned before, we do need a client letter... I just got my extension last weekend and was issued for 3 yrs but I had to get the client letter that too ontheir letter head.... No more discussion on this from my end.... Only persons working for consulting firms as a consultant can understand what I am talking abt.:..

[indiasunil]

Good Morning Soggadu . Waiting for hot hot breakfast news from USCIS

[mesan123]

yeap soggadu is right...i was in consulting till one year before. you need to provide client letter for sure these days for ur h1b extensions.


As I mentioned before, we do need a client letter... I just got my extension last weekend and was issued for 3 yrs but I had to get the client letter that too ontheir letter head.... No more discussion on this from my end.... Only persons working for desi consulting firms as a consultant can understand what I am talking abt.:..

[Nishant_imt]

Hi folks, I am a new member but an old follower.... I have a quick question... Say dates move today beyond July, say to 15 th august... For people who become current, should they even waste money in filing for EAD and AP? Aren't the GCs arriving in less than 6 months these days after dates becoming current?

[veni001]

Hi folks, I am a new member but an old follower.... I have a quick question... Say dates move today beyond July, say to 15 th august... For people who become current, should they even waste money in filing for EAD and AP? Aren't the GCs arriving in less than 6 months these days after dates becoming current?

EAD & AP fee is included as part of 485 filing fee(revised). So applying for EAD/AP or not, will not change filing fee.

[mesan123]

can we expect the sep bulletin today?

[nishant2200]

can we expect the sep bulletin today?

No guarantees for anything, but 99.99 % yes, any time now.

[vchirakala]

May be after the Fed meeting
No guarantees for anything, but 99.99 % yes, any time now.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Gurus,

Sorry for the off topic. How long does it take to get the EAD/AP after filing them? My PD 06/06/2007 and say for example if i'm not current this Sept., I have to wait until May. So, If I apply in May, how many months does it take to get approved? My concern is my H1 gets expired in Aug. 2012, and my company will not give me a Client letter, which I need when I file my H1 extension.

Appreciate your help.

Thanks

I can relate to your situation very well my situation is very similar to yours. Realistically if you get current by May 2012 (Worst Case, you may even get current today) EAD / AP have a 90 day issuance SLA so you should have it by then. Client letter requirements after the E-E memo came into effect are different, for your previous extension it was sufficient that the client gave you the letter and said that they need you long term. Now the client has to say all that in addition they have to say that your day to day work is supervised by your petitioning company and all supervisory control including hiring and firing rests with them, also according to the memo all resources for your work need to be provided by the petitioning company and only limited resources can be provided by the end client. We would have thought that old approved cases are grand fathered but people are having a very tough time at the consulates, every E-E case gets a 221G consistently. If someone gets an adjudicator who wants to apply the memo to the fullest extent any H1B consulting (For Small Companies) approval is hard to come by. Hopefully you will not have to go through H1 it will be tough for all those with small consulting companies, all the best. Let’s all pray for BTM.

[soggadu]

May be after the Fed meeting

dude...really? do you really think any kind of iota of connection between fed meeting and uscis/dos visa bulletin? It reminds me of old days when people used to say somebody is visiting from US and the consulate will give more visas... but anyway... i would say relax and keep doing what you are doing...

[soggadu]

EAD & AP fee is included as part of 485 filing fee(revised). So applying for EAD/AP or not, will not change filing fee.

thank you veni, i was not aware of this....

[vchirakala]

just kidding soggadu ...whole world is tensed about how the market is going to be and we are tensed about Sep bulletin ...

[jackbrown_890]

Change Log of VB Page on DoS website:

https://www.changedetection.com/log/gov/state/travel/bulletin_13603_log.html

[soggadu]

just kidding soggadu ...whole world is tensed about how the market is going to be and we are tensed about Sep bulletin ...

yes darling... isi ki naam hein jindagi... yehi ek picture hein jo sabko alag alag nazariyaa see dik tha hein...

[memk26]

I can relate to your situation very well my situation is very similar to yours. Realistically if you get current by May 2012 (Worst Case, you may even get current today) EAD / AP have a 90 day issuance SLA so you should have it by then. Client letter requirements after the E-E memo came into effect are different, for your previous extension it was sufficient that the client gave you the letter and said that they need you long term. Now the client has to say all that in addition they have to say that your day to day work is supervised by your petitioning company and all supervisory control including hiring and firing rests with them, also according to the memo all resources for your work need to be provided by the petitioning company and only limited resources can be provided by the end client. We would have thought that old approved cases are grand fathered but people are having a very tough time at the consulates, every E-E case gets a 221G consistently. If someone gets an adjudicator who wants to apply the memo to the fullest extent any H1B consulting (For Small Companies) approval is hard to come by. Hopefully you will not have to go through H1 it will be tough for all those with small consulting companies, all the best. Let’s all pray for BTM.

Teddy/Q/Spec/Leo/sogaddu/Nishant/skPanda and all other Gurus,
This is really off topic but its helpful to get input from you guys , I have the same situation and my h1 is expiring in nov2011, whereas my pd 15MAY2007, if I get to file my I-485 in sep2011 , I am planning not to file h1 extension and wait for EAD, I guess one can stay in the country once he/she files I-485 even if h1 expire only can not work. So in my case if I don't get my EAD before nov2011than I might have to take off from work for 1-2 weeks

The main reason for not filing h1 ext is same E-E relationship issue, if I file my h1 and some how its get denied and gets RFE it might create some red during my I-485 approval.

Please share your thought,whatever I am thinking is best for my situation.I appreciate you all , you guys are doing great here.

[vchirakala]

jeena isi kaa naam haiii

[soggadu]

Teddy/Q/Spec/Leo/sogaddu/Nishant/skPanda and all other Gurus,
This is really off topic but its helpful to get input from you guys , I have the same situation and my h1 is expiring in nov2011, whereas my pd 15MAY2007, if I get to file my I-485 in sep2011 , I am planning not to file h1 extension and wait for EAD, I guess one can stay in the country one he/she files I-485 even if h1 expire only can not work. So in my case if I don't get my EAD before nov2011than I might have to take off from work for 1-2 weeks

The main reason for not filing h1 ext is same E-E relationship issue, if I file my h1 and some how its get denied and gets RFE it might create some red during my I-485 approval.

Please share your thought if whatever I am thinking is best for my situation.I appreciate you all , you guys are doing great here.

mem... i am still not a guru...stuck at pandit level... but here is my take on this...

1. You will definitely be current in the coming bulletin and would apply for 485 by beginning of Sep, so it leaves you two more months for H1 renewal. Recently i guess there was a memo which says you can stay in US with no issues
2. The main problem i see is when will ur EAD be approved? I ask this because, you need work authorization if not H1 to continue working. So i wud say (only my opinion) to apply for H1 so that you can continue working
3. I dont think H1 denial (because of client letter or so) will have any effect on GC as it is made for future employment
4. Dont worry about H1, get client letter and other E to E docs and you can get it easily...

My 2 cents...others correct me where i am wrong...the first person to correct will get a free view of bulletin today ;-)

[srimurthy]

my PD is down in 2010, but I still feel the tension and excitement for the VB and following these threads. So whats going through all the people whose PDs are in 2007 is unimaginable. Just keep hoping that whatever comes out is good, since anything good for 2007 is also good for others who are in the Q. Good luck.

[mesan123]

Soggadu most of it is correct.

except getting the client letter..atleast 50% of the clients dont agree to give letter...specially if ur working with financial client your chances of getting client letter is 0-10% i shuld say.

but as soggadu mentioned you can apply for you h1b extension one or 2 months ahead of your expirey in slow processing, by the time you can get RFE if you get your EAD ...i think you have a chance of revoking your h1b extension...this is way....but i dont know whether this will effect your GC...may be gurus can answer here


mem... i am still not a guru...stuck at pandit level... but here is my take on this...

1. You will definitely be current in the coming bulletin and would apply for 485 by beginning of Sep, so it leaves you two more months for H1 renewal. Recently i guess there was a memo which says you can stay in US with no issues
2. The main problem i see is when will ur EAD be approved? I ask this because, you need work authorization if not H1 to continue working. So i wud say (only my opinion) to apply for H1 so that you can continue working
3. I dont think H1 denial (because of client letter or so) will have any effect on GC as it is made for future employment
4. Dont worry about H1, get client letter and other E to E docs and you can get it easily...

My 2 cents...others correct me where i am wrong...the first person to correct will get a free view of bulletin today ;-)

[srimurthy]

I would suggest wait till 30 days before H1 expiry and then apply for extension, since once you have applied you can still continue working on the H1 itself. And hopefully either before H1 gets approved or any other thing from USCIS.. you will get the EAD.


mem... i am still not a guru...stuck at pandit level... but here is my take on this...

1. You will definitely be current in the coming bulletin and would apply for 485 by beginning of Sep, so it leaves you two more months for H1 renewal. Recently i guess there was a memo which says you can stay in US with no issues
2. The main problem i see is when will ur EAD be approved? I ask this because, you need work authorization if not H1 to continue working. So i wud say (only my opinion) to apply for H1 so that you can continue working
3. I dont think H1 denial (because of client letter or so) will have any effect on GC as it is made for future employment
4. Dont worry about H1, get client letter and other E to E docs and you can get it easily...

My 2 cents...others correct me where i am wrong...the first person to correct will get a free view of bulletin today ;-)

[mvinayam]

mem... i am still not a guru...stuck at pandit level... but here is my take on this...

1. You will definitely be current in the coming bulletin and would apply for 485 by beginning of Sep, so it leaves you two more months for H1 renewal. Recently i guess there was a memo which says you can stay in US with no issues
2. The main problem i see is when will ur EAD be approved? I ask this because, you need work authorization if not H1 to continue working. So i wud say (only my opinion) to apply for H1 so that you can continue working
3. I dont think H1 denial (because of client letter or so) will have any effect on GC as it is made for future employment
4. Dont worry about H1, get client letter and other E to E docs and you can get it easily...

My 2 cents...others correct me where i am wrong...the first person to correct will get a free view of bulletin today ;-)

Yes Soggadu is correct its better to apply for the H1B extension. Our case is sort of similar to yours. My husband's H1B is getting expired on Dec 2011 & his PD is 20/06/2011 (EB2) but after discussing with the company lawyers they mentioned its safe to apply for H1B extension which they will be filing this week & also we have a I-485 pending based on my I-140 which is Eb3 so we have also filied for our AP renewal & have the EAD valid till next yr 2012. We keep everything current just to try to do an interfiling when is date become current.

mvinayam

[skpanda]

I would recommend that you apply for H1 extension just before its expiration. It will take USCIS atleast 3 months to process your application. So you will have about 5 months to give for EAD approval. Hopefully you will get your EAD in 3 months. At that point you can withdraw your H1 Extension application (even if there is an RFE).




Teddy/Q/Spec/Leo/sogaddu/Nishant/skPanda and all other Gurus,
This is really off topic but its helpful to get input from you guys , I have the same situation and my h1 is expiring in nov2011, whereas my pd 15MAY2007, if I get to file my I-485 in sep2011 , I am planning not to file h1 extension and wait for EAD, I guess one can stay in the country once he/she files I-485 even if h1 expire only can not work. So in my case if I don't get my EAD before nov2011than I might have to take off from work for 1-2 weeks

The main reason for not filing h1 ext is same E-E relationship issue, if I file my h1 and some how its get denied and gets RFE it might create some red during my I-485 approval.

Please share your thought,whatever I am thinking is best for my situation.I appreciate you all , you guys are doing great here.

--------------

Not a legal advise.

[memk26]

Yes Soggadu is correct its better to apply for the H1B extension. Our case is sort of similar to yours. My husband's H1B is getting expired on Dec 2011 & his PD is 20/06/2011 (EB2) but after discussing with the company lawyers they mentioned its safe to apply for H1B extension which they will be filing this week & also we have a I-485 pending based on my I-140 which is Eb3 so we have also filied for our AP renewal & have the EAD valid till next yr 2012. We keep everything current just to try to do an interfiling when is date become current.

mvinayam

Thank you everyone for the reply, my only worry is if I get H1 ext denied by USCIS or withdrawn by employer(as mentioned in one of above post to apply and withdraw after getting EAD) USCIS might say there is no valid job when they process my I-485 approval thats the reason of not applying h1 ext. Question : is there any issue if I don't work for 2-3 weeks(period between h1 expiration and getting EAD to resume work, My client is ok to give me 2-3 weeks leave)

[skpanda]

You will withdraw your H1 Extension only after you have EAD in hand which hopefully will be before Dec 2011. From that point on you will be on the Job on EAD so there is no need to have a H1 for job offer. In my opinion I485 will not have any issues for this. However if USCIS denies your application for H1 extension before you get EAD then you will be out of status and in the same situation as you would be if you do not apply for H1 and take leave.

Difference is in the former case (apply for H1 extension), you will have extra time (about 2 or 3 months) to wait for EAD and continue to work. However in the latter case (do not apply for H1 extension) you may not want to sit at home for few months just because your EAD takes time)

my 2 cents..


Thank you everyone for the reply, my only worried is if I get H1 ext denied by USCIS or withdrawn by employer(as mentioned in one of above post to apply and with draw) USCIS will say there is no valid job when they process my I-485 approval thats the reason of not applying h1 ext. Question : is there any issue if I don't work for 2-3 weeks(period between h1 expiration and getting EAD to resume work, My client is ok to give me 2-3 weeks leave)

[qesehmk]

soggadu i am not a consultant. Never worked as one. So this is interesting to me :) Thanks. I guess this is a special treatment for non-US based companies. Because I never heard this from my friends who work for IBM CSC McKinsey etc.

As I mentioned before, we do need a client letter... I just got my extension last weekend and was issued for 3 yrs but I had to get the client letter that too ontheir letter head.... No more discussion on this from my end.... Only persons working for consulting firms as a consultant can understand what I am talking abt.:..

soggadu with this reply of yours we confer you the honorary title of Guru!! I do think this guy will get his GC within 6 months and its prudent to apply for EAD and H1. And as many others said ... apply for H1 just before expiry date.

mem... i am still not a guru...stuck at pandit level... but here is my take on this...

1. You will definitely be current in the coming bulletin and would apply for 485 by beginning of Sep, so it leaves you two more months for H1 renewal. Recently i guess there was a memo which says you can stay in US with no issues
2. The main problem i see is when will ur EAD be approved? I ask this because, you need work authorization if not H1 to continue working. So i wud say (only my opinion) to apply for H1 so that you can continue working
3. I dont think H1 denial (because of client letter or so) will have any effect on GC as it is made for future employment
4. Dont worry about H1, get client letter and other E to E docs and you can get it easily...

My 2 cents...others correct me where i am wrong...the first person to correct will get a free view of bulletin today ;-)

[Spectator]

Thank you everyone for the reply, my only worry is if I get H1 ext denied by USCIS or withdrawn by employer(as mentioned in one of above post to apply and withdraw after getting EAD) USCIS might say there is no valid job when they process my I-485 approval thats the reason of not applying h1 ext. Question : is there any issue if I don't work for 2-3 weeks(period between h1 expiration and getting EAD to resume work, My client is ok to give me 2-3 weeks leave)memk26,

Since you would have a pending I-485, which allows you to remain in the USA, that should be fine, if that is the course of action you decide on.

I would suggest you document the period when you are not working, since USCIS may well raise an RFE at a later point, if there is a gap between your H1B expiring and the EAD being approved.

I hope it all works out.

[mesan123]

Memk26..skapnda response are the 2 options i believ you have, and if you are in confusion to decide which one to take...i would suggest you consult a attorny also once before you make the choice..discuss with your attorney to make sure you will not be out of status... :)


You will withdraw your H1 Extension only after you have EAD in hand which hopefully will be before Dec 2011. From that point on you will be on the Job on EAD so there is no need to have a H1 for job offer. In my opinion I485 will not have any issues for this. However if USCIS denies your application for H1 extension before you get EAD then you will be out of status and in the same situation as you would be if you do not apply for H1 and take leave.

Difference is in the former case (apply for H1 extension), you will have extra time (about 2 or 3 months) to wait for EAD and continue to work. However in the latter case (do not apply for H1 extension) you may not want to sit at home for few months just because your EAD takes time)

my 2 cents..

[qesehmk]

H1 and GC are two different things: Your 140 has already established the job offer and all that. Now all you are waiting for is adjustment of of status. So as long as your job with your employer is in good health (meaning either current or future) you should be ok.

Generally when they adjudicate your 485 that time you need to be either employed in that job or have an offer in hand for that job.


Thank you everyone for the reply, my only worry is if I get H1 ext denied by USCIS or withdrawn by employer(as mentioned in one of above post to apply and withdraw after getting EAD) USCIS might say there is no valid job when they process my I-485 approval thats the reason of not applying h1 ext. Question : is there any issue if I don't work for 2-3 weeks(period between h1 expiration and getting EAD to resume work, My client is ok to give me 2-3 weeks leave)

[memk26]

You will withdraw your H1 Extension only after you have EAD in hand which hopefully will be before Dec 2011. From that point on you will be on the Job on EAD so there is no need to have a H1 for job offer. In my opinion I485 will not have any issues for this. However if USCIS denies your application for H1 extension before you get EAD then you will be out of status and in the same situation as you would be if you do not apply for H1 and take leave.

Difference is in the former case (apply for H1 extension), you will have extra time (about 2 or 3 months) to wait for EAD and continue to work. However in the latter case (do not apply for H1 extension) you may not want to sit at home for few months just because your EAD takes time)

my 2 cents..

Thank you skpanda, I looked at your views and feel the safest for my situation, I hope once my employer withdraw my h1 ext petition after I have myt EAD USCIS should not get confused with Job offer and say if there is not job why do you need GC :):).. but this the safest I guess.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thank you everyone for the reply, my only worried is if I get H1 ext denied by USCIS or withdrawn by employer(as mentioned in one of above post to apply and with draw) USCIS will say there is no valid job when they process my I-485 approval thats the reason of not applying h1 ext. Question : is there any issue if I don't work for 2-3 weeks(period between h1 expiration and getting EAD to resume work, My client is ok to give me 2-3 weeks leave)

I agree with what sogaddu has said. skpanda has a great idea if you file the extension at the 11th hour you can stay in status for the maximum amount of time. Ideally even denial should not affect your 485 approval in anyway AFAIK. However times are changing there was some discussion that memo was being applied to I140; hopefully I585 should be outside that purview. Hope that you and many more get current today.

[soggadu]

Thank you everyone for the reply, my only worry is if I get H1 ext denied by USCIS or withdrawn by employer(as mentioned in one of above post to apply and withdraw after getting EAD) USCIS might say there is no valid job when they process my I-485 approval thats the reason of not applying h1 ext. Question : is there any issue if I don't work for 2-3 weeks(period between h1 expiration and getting EAD to resume work, My client is ok to give me 2-3 weeks leave)

mem... i feel you are unnecessarily taking tension... can you get a client letter from your work place? if yes, then go ahead with extension as all others are recommending and make sure you talk with your lawyer about your scenario when u r preparing the docs...

[skpanda]

Once you filed for I485 and have EAD in hand.. you need not worry about H1 at all. You will update your immigration status in I9 and wherever applicable. USCIS is not going to look for H1.

There are more than 200K people who have applied during the 2007 July fiasco. Atleast 50% (I guess) would be working on EAD now without H1. Their I485 is still pending since dates are not current.

Bottom line.. you will be fine. However just for your peace of mind.. please check with your immigration attorney.


Thank you skpanda, I looked at your views and feel the safest for my situation, I hope once my employer withdraw my h1 ext petition after I have myt EAD USCIS should not get confused with Job offer and say if there is not job why do you need GC :):).. but this the safest I guess.

---------------------
Not a legal advise.

[immitrickz]

you just keep blathering these inane comments and you are a GC-Pandit..Bravo !!!

soggadu
Originally Posted by vchirakala
just kidding soggadu ...whole world is tensed about how the market is going to be and we are tensed about Sep bulletin ...
yes darling... isi ki naam hein jindagi... yehi ek picture hein jo sabko alag alag nazariyaa see dik tha hein...

[memk26]

H1 and GC are two different things: Your 140 has already established the job offer and all that. Now all you are waiting for is adjustment of of status. So as long as your job with your employer is in good health (meaning either current or future) you should be ok.

Generally when they adjudicate your 485 that time you need to be either employed in that job or have an offer in hand for that job.

Thank you Q, if h1 gets denied don't you think that during AOS they will see the reason of h1 denial(no proper E-E , small consulting company etc.), and if they figure it out that there os no valid job with the employer then why do you need GC ? this is the only worried for me.

[soggadu]

soggadu with this reply of yours we confer you the honorary title of Guru!!


Originally Posted by immitrickz View Post
you just keep blathering these inane comments and you are a GC-Pandit..Bravo !!!

Thank you :-)...

[memk26]

Once you filed for I485 and have EAD in hand.. you need not worry about H1 at all. You will update your immigration status in I9 and wherever applicable. USCIS is not going to look for H1.

There are more than 200K people who have applied during the 2007 July fiasco. Atleast 50% (I guess) would be working on EAD now without H1. Their I485 is still pending since dates are not current.

Bottom line.. you will be fine. However just for your peace of mind.. please check with your immigration attorney.



---------------------
Not a legal advise.

Thank you , I got it now.

[mesan123]

He is not blathering immitrickz....he is making few people ease there tensions who are waiting eagerly for there SEP bulletin and GC ...

Yes he is a GURU...if you follow the thread from past few pages....his comments do help people on this forum...


you just keep blathering these inane comments and you are a GC-Pandit..Bravo !!!

soggadu
Originally Posted by vchirakala
just kidding soggadu ...whole world is tensed about how the market is going to be and we are tensed about Sep bulletin ...
yes darling... isi ki naam hein jindagi... yehi ek picture hein jo sabko alag alag nazariyaa see dik tha hein...

[skpanda]

Easy my friend... Soggadu is our Chief Humor Officer. He along with some other folks here.. keep the forum jovial and friendly. Its a good fabric thread. He is definately a Guru in that regard!! Also if you check his posts he has contributed wherever he could w.r.t GC questions.

Soggadu and other friends.. keep it going....


you just keep blathering these inane comments and you are a GC-Pandit..Bravo !!!

soggadu
Originally Posted by vchirakala
just kidding soggadu ...whole world is tensed about how the market is going to be and we are tensed about Sep bulletin ...
yes darling... isi ki naam hein jindagi... yehi ek picture hein jo sabko alag alag nazariyaa see dik tha hein...

[qesehmk]

Does USCIS adjudicator have visibility to all of your "Kundali"? May be? By law, can he use H1 denial to deny 485? I do not think so. He will look at the underlying 140.

But let me ask you this - if there is no valid job offer then how is your 140 approved? 140 is where the employer formally says and this is what the job is.

Unless you think your 140 is in jeopardy I wouldnt be worried about your H1 denial.



Thank you Q, if h1 gets denied don't you think that during AOS they will see the reason of h1 denial(no proper E-E , small consulting company etc.), and if they figure it out that there os no valid job with the employer then why do you need GC ? this is the only worried for me.

[skpanda]

Exactly. GC is for a future job offer (not necessarily the current one for which you have H1). Your I140 tells USCIS that your employer has a job offer for you once you get your EAD/GC.



Does USCIS adjudicator have visibility to all of your "Kundali"? May be? By law, can he use H1 denial to deny 485? I do not think so. He will look at the underlying 140.

But let me ask you this - if there is no valid job offer then how is your 140 approved? 140 is where the employer formally says and this is what the job is.

Unless you think your 140 is in jeopardy I wouldnt be worried about your H1 denial.

[nishant2200]

Not an expert in consulting, but one thought. You do have to be in valid status throughout stay in USA for AOS even though GC is for future job. This is something which Veni reminded me long back.

[memk26]

Exactly. GC is for a future job offer (not necessarily the current one for which you have H1). Your I140 tells USCIS that your employer has a job offer for you once you get your EAD/GC.

Thanks for clearing my confusion. so here is what I have in my mind to go with, apply h1 ext at 15-20 days before it expire I will make sure this will be in normal process(no premium, funny right) :). Once I get my EAD I will ask employer to withdraw my h1 even if there is no RFE :)
So I will be one of in million who does not want to file h1 in premium and withdraw h1 even no RFE :), I will definitly check with Company Attorny also.
Q- I have a clean approved I-140 and I missed just for a day in 2007 for concurrent filing.

sogaddu you don't have to tell us who you are, we know you are already a Guru

Thank you all and wish you all the best.

[10102007]

Sorry this might be a repeat post. Am a newbie here. Just wanted a take on how guys with a PD in Oct 2007 are feeling. What are the realistic and worst case scenarios?

[memk26]

Not an expert in consulting, but one thought. You do have to be in valid status throughout stay in USA for AOS even though GC is for future job. This is something which Veni reminded me long back.

I guess one can stay in USA legally after filing AOS, only can't work, correct me if I am wrong.

[indiasunil]

No More predictions !.. Just reality show in few hours !!.. Good luck.. Hope for the best...
Sorry this might be a repeat post. Am a newbie here. Just wanted a take on how guys with a PD in Oct 2007 are feeling. What are the realistic and worst case scenarios?

[skpanda]

Good Luck.. I hope you get your EAD even before you have to file for H1 extension..... worst case by end of this year (before USCIS even tries to do anything with your H1 Extension).


Thanks for clearing my confusion. so here is what I have in my mind to go with, apply h1 ext at 15-20 days before it expire I will make sure this will be in normal process(no premium, funny right) :). Once I get my EAD I will ask employer to withdraw my h1 even if there is no RFE :))
So I will be one of in million who does not want to file h1 in premium and withdraw h1 even no RFE :)), I will definitly check with Company Attorny also.
Q- I have a clean approved I-140 and I missed just for a day in 2007 for concurrent filing.

Thank you all and wish you all the best, sogaddu you don't have to tell us who you are, we know you are already a Guru

[druvraj]

No More predictions !.. Just reality show in few hours !!.. Good luck.. Hope for the best...

My 2 cents

Dates will move to July 15 and USCIS along with DOL will make sure that in the next visa cycle nobody who is current is remaining(this includes porters, PWMB etc...) and then and then only go for some kind of BTM.

[immitrickz]

Q - I sometimes get this feeling that too much thinking only adds to the fear of the unknown.. Knowledge is indeed power : - )



Does USCIS adjudicator have visibility to all of your "Kundali"? May be? By law, can he use H1 denial to deny 485? I do not think so. He will look at the underlying 140.

But let me ask you this - if there is no valid job offer then how is your 140 approved? 140 is where the employer formally says and this is what the job is.

Unless you think your 140 is in jeopardy I wouldnt be worried about your H1 denial.

[soggadu]

Sorry this might be a repeat post. Am a newbie here. Just wanted a take on how guys with a PD in Oct 2007 are feeling. What are the realistic and worst case scenarios?

10102007, i am 10222007 speaking... dont really expect miracles... i dont think we have a chance till Nov/dec 2011...

[immitrickz]

Quality always triumphs over Quantity ..


Thank you :-)...

[soggadu]

No More predictions !.. Just reality show in few hours !!.. Good luck.. Hope for the best...

whats your PD sunil...you look all prepared from morning... i like your energy... keep it going...

[indiasunil]

July 2007 or 2008 ? .. Just kidding .. I know what do you mean here..
Somehow my strong feeling still will go to Mar 2008. Lets wait for the rock & roll.



My 2 cents

Dates will move to July 15 and USCIS along with DOL will make sure that in the next visa cycle nobody who is current is remaining(this includes porters, PWMB etc...) and then and then only go for some kind of BTM.

[indiasunil]

My PD - JAN 15 2008. Long way to gooo


whats your PD sunil...you look all prepared from morning... i like your energy... keep it going...

[leo07]

come on guys...when would VB be released????
Q, did you get any information from your source. Sorry, these pages are scrolling so fast I could barely keep up. Not sure you'd get to this post today:)

[10102007]

10102007, i am 10222007 speaking... dont really expect miracles... i dont think we have a chance till Nov/dec 2011...

Thanks Soggadu. Your prediction is great. I'm looking for some relief atleast by Feb-Mar 2012

[soggadu]

Quality always triumphs over Quantity ..

dude... really... usually i ignore comments like yours but, you got lucky...

I dont think i am a guru/pandit as i know more of this GC stuff... i just post what i think and what i feel... if it's blathering to you...it's ok dost... it's a free country after all... atleast i am not saying u have to do what i say because i am a guru/pandit... in the end when i go out... i am just a normal desi working my way up... so who cares abt guru/pandit titles...right...

one down... :-)...what your next trick ;-)..chil maro dost... jiyoo aur jeene doo...

[Reader]

Thanks Soggadu. Your prediction is great. I'm looking for some relief atleast by Feb-Mar 2012

Mine is 12122007 and expecting relief by May 2012...

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends this news is from user rodnyb on IV all credit to him, please translate

Heard from a friend, Chinese immigration site were saying Sept VB Eb2C is 09/01/2007.
Anyone know how to translate, or details?
ÂäµØÉú¸ù(Immigration)°æͬÖ÷Ìâģʽ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)
http://www.mitbbs.com/bbsdoc/Immigration.html

[qesehmk]

And inspite of that you are quite calm! Good luck!

Q- I have a clean approved I-140 and I missed just for a day in 2007 for concurrent filing.


I am not very sure on this one. Check w a Lawyer.

I guess one can stay in USA legally after filing AOS, only can't work, correct me if I am wrong.

I agree. But hey the guy missed filing by a day and it seems his job is in trouble. So cut him some slack. BTW any news from your source for the visa bulletin this time around?

Q - I sometimes get this feeling that too much thinking only adds to the fear of the unknown.. Knowledge is indeed power : - )

[natvyas]

Anyone taking a peek at the US Consulate Mumbai's website ?

[soggadu]

Friends this news is from user rodnyb on IV all credit to him, please translate

Heard from a friend, Chinese immigration site were saying Sept VB Eb2C is 09/01/2007.
Anyone know how to translate, or details?
ÂäµØÉú¸ù(Immigration)°æͬÖ÷Ìâģʽ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)

does that mean EB2 I/C or just C??

[natvyas]

Friends this news is from user rodnyb on IV all credit to him, please translate

Heard from a friend, Chinese immigration site were saying Sept VB Eb2C is 09/01/2007.
Anyone know how to translate, or details?
ÂäµØÉú¸ù(Immigration)°æͬÖ÷Ìâģʽ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)
http://www.mitbbs.com/bbsdoc/Immigration.html


the date of Sept 1 doesnt make sense because the CO has mentioned that there will be a need to take in more applications if the cut-off date moves to Aug 07. Hence either it should be in July or somewhere late 07/early 08

Regards
Nat

[qesehmk]

Friends our source told us the bulletin will be published today afternoon. There was no other information provided. But I saw Teddy's post and I think that post could very well be true.

[mesan123]

Hope itz current....Everyone here will get EAD :) and GC in few years


does that mean EB2 I/C or just C??

[skpanda]

May be Q's theory of BTM in October 2011 may come true... by just clearing as many applications as possible in Sept 2011, they will be able to focus on just BTM in Oct 2011 and have about 500 (I + C) earmarked for Oct 2011 approvals.


the date of Sept 1 doesnt make sense because the CO has mentioned that there will be a need to take in more applications if the cut-off date moves to Aug 07. Hence either it should be in July or somewhere late 07/early 08

Regards
Nat

[mesan123]

Nice reply soggadu....

This is one form where we dont go over indivijuals...so chill out immitrickz


dude... really... usually i ignore comments like yours but, you got lucky...


I dont think i am a guru/pandit as i know more of this GC stuff... i just post what i think and what i feel... if it's blathering to you...it's ok dost... it's a free country after all... atleast i am not saying u have to do what i say because i am a guru/pandit... in the end when i go out... i am just a normal desi working my way up... so who cares abt guru/pandit titles...right...

one down... :-)...what your next trick ;-)..chil maro dost... jiyoo aur jeene doo...

[soggadu]

May be Q's theory of BTM in October 2011 may come true... by just clearing as many applications as possible in Sept 2011, they will be able to focus on just BTM in Oct 2011 and have about 500 (I + C) earmarked for Oct 2011 approvals.

I feel there will be SFM starting from OCT till end of Q1... which should take us to Q1 2008...

[ChampU]

I was browsing through the posts someone being worried about the H1B extension. At the same time, I read about people with a E-V-C model (premium processing) get their H1 extensions until the date listed on the work order in 3 days with no RFEs. My friend in this model had applied for his extension (Regular processing) in May.. and is still waiting..

Not to belittle anyone's worries, but this is confusing. I was wondering, if situations are indeed that bad?

I read about the E-E RFEs also showing up for non-consulting jobs.My 7th year H1 extension is coming up on 10/31, and HR said that they would send out the paper work by 2nd/3rd week of September (they said they are waiting on some clarification for Q4 budgets).
1. Should I ask them to expedite the process?
2. Should I apply in premium processing??

My PD is 02/22/2008.. It would really really take a miracle for me to file for the I-485 this month.










I agree with what sogaddu has said. skpanda has a great idea if you file the extension at the 11th hour you can stay in status for the maximum amount of time. Ideally even denial should not affect your 485 approval in anyway AFAIK. However times are changing there was some discussion that memo was being applied to I140; hopefully I585 should be outside that purview. Hope that you and many more get current today.

[bieber]

May be Q's theory of BTM in October 2011 may come true... by just clearing as many applications as possible in Sept 2011, they will be able to focus on just BTM in Oct 2011 and have about 500 (I + C) earmarked for Oct 2011 approvals.

Is it one year movement (BTM) in Oct bulletin?

[snathan]

Friends this news is from user rodnyb on IV all credit to him, please translate

Heard from a friend, Chinese immigration site were saying Sept VB Eb2C is 09/01/2007.
Anyone know how to translate, or details?
ÂäµØÉú¸ù(Immigration)°æͬÖ÷Ìâģʽ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)
http://www.mitbbs.com/bbsdoc/Immigration.html

After transalation, I couldnt find any thread showing this info.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends our source told us the bulletin will be published today afternoon. There was no other information provided. But I saw Teddy's post and I think that post could very well be true.

Q Thanks, I believe you have been very consistent in predicting the higher end, this date if true matches it. It will be a dream come true for all PWMB's. This date if true may not be SFM though.

QBLOGFAN paging for you, you are the man of the hour.

[natvyas]

Is it one year movement (BTM) in Oct bulletin?

How can they move dates in Oct if they have more applications than the monthly/quarterly supply of visas?

Have I misunderstood the law/rule?

[qblogfan]

That is false information.

Nobody on mitbbs provided such information.

Until now Mr.Co didn't release any information to NIU or other chinese guys.

I think we have to wait.......


Friends this news is from user rodnyb on IV all credit to him, please translate

Heard from a friend, Chinese immigration site were saying Sept VB Eb2C is 09/01/2007.
Anyone know how to translate, or details?
ÂäµØÉú¸ù(Immigration)°æͬÖ÷Ìâģʽ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)
http://www.mitbbs.com/bbsdoc/Immigration.html

[immitrickz]

Q - I am afraid i have to hold back this time. I already got my share of slack today (on other matter ) :-) and i am not ready for more.. Hope that 9/1 date holds true..




I agree. But hey the guy missed filing by a day and it seems his job is in trouble. So cut him some slack. BTW any news from your source for the visa bulletin this time around?

[TeddyKoochu]

That is false information.

Nobody on mitbbs provided such information.

Until now Mr.Co didn't release any information to NIU or other chinese guys.

I think we have to wait.......

Thanks for clarifying this, we are all back to normal state again.

[qesehmk]

Champu, you are more or less similar to the other person we have been discussing all this morning. Its hard to give you advice since not sure why they want to wait exactly. Budgets seems like a frivolous reason. May be the lawyer thinks you could be current and avoid H1 expense. But my advice would be to continue H1 regardless 485 is filed. So carefully nudge HR. Unfortunately HRs always behave as if they are the masters of the world.



I was browsing through the posts someone being worried about the H1B extension. At the same time, I read about people with a E-V-C model (premium processing) get their H1 extensions until the date listed on the work order in 3 days with no RFEs. My friend in this model had applied for his extension (Regular processing) in May.. and is still waiting..

Not to belittle anyone's worries, but this is confusing. I was wondering, if situations are indeed that bad?

I read about the E-E RFEs also showing up for non-consulting jobs.My 7th year H1 extension is coming up on 10/31, and HR said that they would send out the paper work by 2nd/3rd week of September (they said they are waiting on some clarification for Q4 budgets).
1. Should I ask them to expedite the process?
2. Should I apply in premium processing??

My PD is 02/22/2008.. It would really really take a miracle for me to file for the I-485 this month.

[bieber]

How can they move dates in Oct if they have more applications than the monthly/quarterly supply of visas?

Have I misunderstood the law/rule?

We have never heard of applying spillover in fy Q3, that happened this year. I believe they can justify BTM if they WANT to

[skpanda]

It is just a thoery. This is a unique situation without any prececdant. So how DOS will handle is just a speculation. They may make exceptions similar to what they did in FY 2011. They allocated spillover in Q3 itself although by law/rule they should do it in Q4. So if they want they can make an exception to do SFM or BTM starting Oct 2011.



How can they move dates in Oct if they have more applications than the monthly/quarterly supply of visas?

Have I misunderstood the law/rule?

[leo07]

Guys, there could be few heart-aches here...with heart swinging like pendulum from both extremes.

please post ONLY credible information:) and limit the swings if possible :)

qblogfan, I respect you commenting very quickly without leading into much hype. TeddyK same with you...man hang in there...we will be through.

[qblogfan]

You are welcome.

I kept checking mitbbs today and yesterday.

If I hear anything new, I will post here.

Several Chinese guys called Mr.CO, but they didn't get any credible information.

I think Mr.CO wants to give us a surprise.



Thanks for clarifying this, we are all back to normal state again.

[sha_kus]

I always get a feeling that USCIS has a Sholay coin (both sides heads). It is always USCIS wins because they always call heads.. And look at this data '09/01/2007' this looks like the coin didnt fall either side its standing still vertical to the ground.. na udhar ka na eedhar ka...



That is false information.

Nobody on mitbbs provided such information.

Until now Mr.Co didn't release any information to NIU or other chinese guys.

I think we have to wait.......

[skpanda]

Cautiously optmistic - Hope that surprise is CURRENT for entire EB2.


You are welcome.

I kept checking mitbbs today and yesterday.

If I hear anything new, I will post here.

Several Chinese guys called Mr.CO, but they didn't get any credible information.

I think Mr.CO wants to give us a surprise.

[mesan123]

Dont worry friend...as you missed by one day...it would have been hard on you.... i hope your date and who ever on year 2007 get there dates current this time... :)


Q - I am afraid i have to hold back this time. I already got my share of slack today (on other matter ) :-) and i am not ready for more.. Hope that 9/1 date holds true..

[evoori]

You are welcome.

I kept checking mitbbs today and yesterday.

If I hear anything new, I will post here.

Several Chinese guys called Mr.CO, but they didn't get any credible information.

I think Mr.CO wants to give us a surprise.

How come we don't have his number ? Can I have his direct number ? I want to know when 09262007 will be current..:)

[qesehmk]

Teddy 1 sep 2007 is end of my comfort zone for SFM. Anything after that must retrogress. That is the reason I liked the date. But as qbf pointed out it could be false. Rodnyb is my old friend from IV ;) Say hello to him.


Q Thanks, I believe you have been very consistent in predicting the higher end, this date if true matches it. It will be a dream come true for all PWMB's. This date if true may not be SFM though.


Q - I am afraid i have to hold back this time. I already got my share of slack today (on other matter ) :-) and i am not ready for more.. Hope that 9/1 date holds true..
immitrickz, last time your source said there won't be any movement for August bulletin and that didn't pan out quite well. But still thought if there is any information it would be useful to people.

[sc09876]

BTM, SFM, et all..
Except for 2007 fiasco, which benefited a lot among us (including me), there never was any flood gates that got opened or any effort to build any movement. I also believe that 2007 July was because of several factors including the happenings at the time in terms of immigration debate, and not necessarily because of an intent to build any kind of movement. What makes us think that USCIS' only job is to process EB2I applications, and they do not have any work to do otherwise. Some of us have even suggested that that is indeeed the case (to keep USCIS busy). Let us remember that EB2IC is only one of the areas of work for USCIS. If indeed, 2800 odd visas are to be processed during a quarter (not too good at numbers), why would they need to build any kind of inventory in terms of pre-adj. I would rather argue that over time, USCIS has build efficiencies in the ways they would pre-process, so they would not need to build any kind of inventory at all. From what I have understood so far, what is remaining and it is significantly higher than any normal allocation, would take us a month further. In that case, is it not correct to say that at any time, to fulfil a quarter worth of allocation, they only need to advance the dates by a month or there abouts? Reason that collecting fee is also not really convincing because..H1B gives them more fee than 485+EAD together, and by the way, recently, H1Bs in a lot of cases are not being issued for a full 3 year term.

I do not wish to sound pessimistic nor trying to pour water on hopes of several on this thread. Just my opinion - take it for what it is worth

[qesehmk]

You made my day!!

I always get a feeling that USCIS has a Sholay coin (both sides heads). It is always USCIS wins because they always call heads.. And look at this data '09/01/2007' this looks like the coin didnt fall either side its standing still vertical to the ground.. na udhar ka na eedhar ka...

[TeddyKoochu]

Guys, there could be few heart-aches here...with heart swinging like pendulum from both extremes.

please post ONLY credible information:) and limit the swings if possible :)

qblogfan, I respect you commenting very quickly without leading into much hype. TeddyK same with you...man hang in there...we will be through.


You are welcome.

I kept checking mitbbs today and yesterday.

If I hear anything new, I will post here.

Several Chinese guys called Mr.CO, but they didn't get any credible information.

I think Mr.CO wants to give us a surprise.

Leo I can really understand your feelings, hoping for the best my friend. Thanks to our friend qblogfan for putting all speculation to rest so quickly.

[gchopeful123]

evoori,

My PD is 09/24/2007 :) Let's hope we get thru today!!!


How come we don't have his number ? Can I have his direct number ? I want to know when 09262007 will be current..:)

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy 1 sep 2007 is end of my comfort zone for SFM. Anything after that must retrogress. That is the reason I liked the date. But as qbf pointed out it could be false. Rodnyb is my old friend from IV ;) Say hello to him.

Q I will go by our friend qbf on this, we accept his authority. However if rodnyb's news really turns out to be true I will give him a hi5.

[immitrickz]

Thanks for the Reminder !! To be fair to my source, the movement differed by a month (Which definitely means a lot to most of us here) compared to huge forward movements predicted earlier for that bulletin . And no, i don't have any information to share this time around...




immitrickz, last time your source said there won't be any movement for August bulletin and that didn't pan out quite well. But still thought if there is any information it would be useful to people.

[skpanda]

Have you heard of 'spillover' that has been happening for last few years in EB2ICs favor? USCIS will need inventory. Please PM me if you want to discuss further on this...


BTM, SFM, et all..
Except for 2007 fiasco, which benefited a lot among us (including me), there never was any flood gates that got opened or any effort to build any movement. I also believe that 2007 July was because of several factors including the happenings at the time in terms of immigration debate, and not necessarily because of an intent to build any kind of movement. What makes us think that USCIS' only job is to process EB2I applications, and they do not have any work to do otherwise. Some of us have even suggested that that is indeeed the case (to keep USCIS busy). Let us remember that EB2IC is only one of the areas of work for USCIS. If indeed, 2800 odd visas are to be processed during a quarter (not too good at numbers), why would they need to build any kind of inventory in terms of pre-adj. I would rather argue that over time, USCIS has build efficiencies in the ways they would pre-process, so they would not need to build any kind of inventory at all. From what I have understood so far, what is remaining and it is significantly higher than any normal allocation, would take us a month further. In that case, is it not correct to say that at any time, to fulfil a quarter worth of allocation, they only need to advance the dates by a month or there abouts? Reason that collecting fee is also not really convincing because..H1B gives them more fee than 485+EAD together, and by the way, recently, H1Bs in a lot of cases are not being issued for a full 3 year term.

I do not wish to sound pessimistic nor trying to pour water on hopes of several on this thread. Just my opinion - take it for what it is worth

[Nishant_imt]

guys, did any of you had an DHS officer visit at your workplace regarding the H1B visa? Did they contact your consulting company later? what was the outcome?

[imechanix]

This feel like the last over of India Vs. Pakistan (USCIS) match. The excitement is crazy.

[immitrickz]

lol...so true..
This feel like the last over of India Vs. Pakistan (USCIS) match. The excitement is crazy.

[indiasunil]

We will see sep bulletin match statistics around 3:50 pm et .. :-)

[gc_usa]

guys, did any of you had an DHS officer visit at your workplace regarding the H1B visa? Did they contact your consulting company later? what was the outcome?

Yes they did at my workplace and I am full time so except checking some facts nothing happened.

[immitrickz]

Well..The trick came from you this time around.. playing the victim card ..
dude... really... usually i ignore comments like yours but, you got lucky...

I dont think i am a guru/pandit as i know more of this GC stuff... i just post what i think and what i feel... if it's blathering to you...it's ok dost... it's a free country after all... atleast i am not saying u have to do what i say because i am a guru/pandit... in the end when i go out... i am just a normal desi working my way up... so who cares abt guru/pandit titles...right...

one down... :-)...what your next trick ;-)..chil maro dost... jiyoo aur jeene doo...

[gc_usa]

This bulletin will be a big bumper :) I see people having very high hope and in the end it will be little movement with no comment...

[kd2008]

There are currently 280 users online. 43 members and 237 guests

We still have a long way to go to break the record of 387.

[gc_usa]

There are currently 280 users online. 43 members and 237 guests

We still have a long way to go to break the record of 387.

It will be around when bulletin get published. not now :(

[qesehmk]

Error on prediction is acceptable/understandable depending on the magnitude. But error on "insider information" hurts credibility. Wish your source provides first credible information sometime soon in future.
Thanks for the Reminder !! To be fair to my source, the movement differed by a month (Which definitely means a lot to most of us here) compared to huge forward movements predicted earlier for that bulletin . And no, i don't have any information to share this time around...


BTM, SFM, et all..
Except for 2007 fiasco, which benefited a lot among us (including me), there never was any flood gates that got opened or any effort to build any movement. I also believe that 2007 July was because of several factors including the happenings at the time in terms of immigration debate, and not necessarily because of an intent to build any kind of movement. What makes us think that USCIS' only job is to process EB2I applications, and they do not have any work to do otherwise. Some of us have even suggested that that is indeeed the case (to keep USCIS busy). Let us remember that EB2IC is only one of the areas of work for USCIS. If indeed, 2800 odd visas are to be processed during a quarter (not too good at numbers), why would they need to build any kind of inventory in terms of pre-adj. I would rather argue that over time, USCIS has build efficiencies in the ways they would pre-process, so they would not need to build any kind of inventory at all. From what I have understood so far, what is remaining and it is significantly higher than any normal allocation, would take us a month further. In that case, is it not correct to say that at any time, to fulfil a quarter worth of allocation, they only need to advance the dates by a month or there abouts? Reason that collecting fee is also not really convincing because..H1B gives them more fee than 485+EAD together, and by the way, recently, H1Bs in a lot of cases are not being issued for a full 3 year term.

I do not wish to sound pessimistic nor trying to pour water on hopes of several on this thread. Just my opinion - take it for what it is worth

I think you laid it out quite well. I agree with you a lot on this. The only thing is .. USCIS knows that every year there is Spillover and so they need to move dates by that much at a min to not let those visas go waste. Thats why BTM. SFM is what otherwise they do every month - move the dates by 0-1 weeks!

[jackbrown_890]

We will see sep bulletin match statistics around 3:50 pm et .. :-)
It feels like a long test match.
Lunch break..now
i guess, VB will be released after Tea in 4th session.

[ifaith]

very good point. H1 is automatically cancelled. Then does he have AP. I believe AP should be ok, as that's the very purpose of AP, to allow for travel during the period waiting for AOS to be completed. If he does not have AP, then immigrant visa stamp as superdesi said. Actually the immigrant visa stamp seems to be the most safe way. You can also try putting this question on Ron Gotcher's forum. Or best, take least time allowed by a lawyer, pay him, and ask the question, for sure shot answer.

Thanks superdesi and nishant2000
He does not have a AP or EAD as he just applied for AOS on June 3rd and the green card came before AP could come.

[nishant2200]

This bulletin will be a big bumper :) I see people having very high hope and in the end it will be little movement with no comment...

if that happens, still at the end of FY, more data points will be obtained, and we will see if we could have done better in analysis, and re-calibrate ourselves.

Even last time, hopes were high, but small movement with no comments. But we survived!

[immitrickz]

Point taken..I wish my source is Mr.Charles Oppenheim
Error on prediction is acceptable/understandable depending on the magnitude. But error on "insider information" hurts credibility. Wish your source provides first credible information sometime soon in future.

[qesehmk]

While we are waiting ... those interested in making a living by starting a visa bulletin predictions blog this would be quite interesting statistics for today since morning:
Views: 7226. Ad Revenue: 0.39 dollars :-)



Product (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Page views (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Clicks (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Page CTR (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) CPC (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Page RPM (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Estimated earnings (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0))
AdSense for Content (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) 7,226 0 0.00% — $0.05 $0.39

[tiger_of_web]

I just get a feeling that there wont be any BTM in this bulletin. Also, i feel that DS under CO operates differently. They dont like to move the dates and then retrogress. One small movement to get new applications will happen somewhere in May/June 2012 which will account for the expected spillover for that year and wont retrogress back again. USCIS is very capable of processing 485's in 30-45 days. Another movement can happen in July/Aug 2012 to make sure that visa numbers are not wasted. I think going forward this is the fashion in which we will see the DS operates. Its good in a way, brings some predictability into the system.

[qesehmk]

I am sorry. Sometimes I do talk like a Jerk. Thanks for taking it easy.


Point taken..I wish my source is Mr.Charles Oppenheim

[belmontboy]

I just get a feeling that there wont be any BTM in this bulletin. Also, i feel that DS under CO operates differently. They dont like to move the dates and then retrogress. One small movement to get new applications will happen somewhere in May/June 2012 which will account for the expected spillover for that year and wont retrogress back again. USCIS is very capable of processing 485's in 30-45 days. Another movement can happen in July/Aug 2012 to make sure that visa numbers are not wasted. I think going forward this is the fashion in which we will see the DS operates. Its good in a way, brings some predictability into the system.

If the new intake happens in may/june 2012, there will be visa wastage for sure. Also 30-45 days for processing new 485's is impossible - as procedures like biometrics, security check take lot of time.
Any new intake has to happen no later than Q2 of 2012 (USCIS calendar year)

[ssvp22]

While we are waiting ... those interested in making a living by starting a visa bulletin predictions blog this would be quite interesting statistics for today since morning:
Views: 7226. Ad Revenue: 0.39 dollars :-)



Product (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Page views (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Clicks (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Page CTR (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) CPC (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Page RPM (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Estimated earnings (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0))
AdSense for Content (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) 7,226 0 0.00% — $0.05 $0.39
No one has become rich from Adsense/Adwords combo except Google.

[pdfeb09]

While we are waiting ... those interested in making a living by starting a visa bulletin predictions blog this would be quite interesting statistics for today since morning:
Views: 7226. Ad Revenue: 0.39 dollars :-)
Product (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Page views (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Clicks (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Page CTR (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) CPC (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Page RPM (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) Estimated earnings (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0))
AdSense for Content (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0)) 7,226 0 0.00% — $0.05 $0.39

Just to show my appreciation for your efforts Q, I clicked on a couple of your add banners ..!! :)

[nishant2200]

Just to clarify on behalf of Q, the money made is donated to charities.

See: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made

[vchirakala]

wow ...no updates for 1Hr 10 min s...
Still waiting for the bulletin :-)

[nishant2200]

wow ...no updates for 1Hr 10 min s...
Still waiting for the bulletin :-)

Yeah dude, I will say it again. This wait is killing me.

When the fate is already decided, why so much delay. Last time they released it like 6.45 AM PST, the next day after demand data released.

[vchirakala]

May be it will be current ..thats why so much suspense...

[pg_at_q]

as someone said earlier...maybe they are waiting for the fed minutes to come out ;)

[vchirakala]

that was me ...

[zenmaster]

The web developer who is suppose to move the link from UAT to Prod. is on lunch break guys.... wait until his lunch is over :)

[pg_at_q]

dude...u got a lot of theories...maybe it'll be current...maybe it's due to fed minutes...you'll make it good in the law field..or even CSI :)...(jk...u know that...lol!)

[mesan123]

is it normal??? do they release bulletin in late afternoon's . i also know last time they released by 10am EST and removed it again for few hours and then re-released it


Yeah dude, I will say it again. This wait is killing me.

When the fate is already decided, why so much delay. Last time they released it like 6.45 AM PST, the next day after demand data released.

[neospeed]

Yeah dude, I will say it again. This wait is killing me.

When the fate is already decided, why so much delay. Last time they released it like 6.45 AM PST, the next day after demand data released.

CO might be crunching numbers left over from family based that will go to employment for the next year, based on that they will move dates accordingly.

[nishant2200]

is it normal??? do they release bulletin in late afternoon's . i also know last time they released by 10am EST and removed it again for few hours and then re-released it

yes, the bulletin which got released and raised dates to March 8th, 2007, was released at PST lunchtime around. I remember because I was driving back from an excellent pizza lunch around 12.45 PST, when my friend, who always calls me as soon as VB is out, called me up to inform. so it can be in fact released that late too.

[qesehmk]

Just to show my appreciation for your efforts Q, I clicked on a couple of your add banners ..!! :)
Appreciate the gesture ... even if its a joke. But please don't unless there is genuine interest.


Just to clarify on behalf of Q, the money made is donated to charities.
See: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made
Thanks Nishant. So far we have made more in donations than received revenues. But I repeat - DO NOT CLICK UNLESS GENUINELY INTERESTED. We don't really need a lot of money to run this site. So dont worry about financials of the site.


is it normal??? do they release bulletin in late afternoon's . i also know last time they released by 10am EST and removed it again for few hours and then re-released it
CO did say the bulletin is definitely coming today afternoon.

[chinni27]

SEP 11 VB PD will be 8th May 07 or 16th Jun 07.

[vchirakala]

chinni ...

please let us know the source.

[dec2007]

My pd is dec31,2007, eb2i. That was a very odd date chosen by my lawyer..by the way, he was great. Back in 07, He used to call me after work hrs and forced me to get the papers quickly...bad luck he is no more working in that firm..

For me to get current, im hoping the news about NVC receipt dates is correct, so that dates move to 2008.

[pdfeb09]

Just to clarify on behalf of Q, the money made is donated to charities.

See: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made

Thanks nishant2200 !! My post was in a lighter vein....but Knowing, what I know now, just increases my respect for Q.

[natvyas]

since we are all waiting for the VB to come out, in the meantime should be discuss the implications of the COD moving to Sept 1?

Just a thought

[Gclongwait]

My pd is dec31,2007, eb2i. That was a very odd date chosen by my lawyer..by the way, he was great. Back in 07, He used to call me after work hrs and forced me to get the papers quickly...bad luck he is no more working in that firm..

For me to get current, im hoping the news about NVC receipt dates is correct, so that dates move to 2008.

I can assure you the news is correct, atleast for fee receipts until Mar 2008. The bigger issue is if that news even means anything. I guess we will come to know soon. tick..tock..tick..tock

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your kind words.

maybe rodnyb's news is accurate. what I meant was that mitbbs does not have this information flowing around. maybe rodnyb got this news from other sources.


Q I will go by our friend qbf on this, we accept his authority. However if rodnyb's news really turns out to be true I will give him a hi5.

[nishant2200]

I can assure you the news is correct, atleast for fee receipts until Mar 2008. The bigger issue is if that news even means anything. I guess we will come to know soon. tick..tock..tick..tock

I have always been very curious on this. Have you actually seen such a notice receipt, or know personally a person who got it and can vouch for him/her. Just really curious.

[nishant2200]

since we are all waiting for the VB to come out, in the meantime should be discuss the implications of the COD moving to Sept 1?

Just a thought

The biggest implication would be, PWMB would be removed out of the calculations, and then only unknowns left for predictions would be porting and of course, the SO sources of EB1, EB2 ROW, EB5 and theoretically EB4, their usage pattern.

[vchirakala]

where is rodnyb's news ...if someone can please brief us about it

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks for your kind words.

maybe rodnyb's news is accurate. what I meant was that mitbbs does not have this information flowing around. maybe rodnyb got this news from other sources.

Let’s wait for the official VB to set the record straight. Some other posters commented that the 09/01 was an individual’s prediction and someone else just commented the news is authentic. Right now everything is in complete flux. However let’s rely on our predictions and if this news is correct be pleasantly surprised.

[TeddyKoochu]

where is rodnyb's news ...if someone can please brief us about it

Let’s wait for the official VB to set the record straight. Right now the discussion is in complete flux with varying opinions. let’s rely on our predictions and if this news is correct be pleasantly surprised.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum14-members-forum/1944033-eb2-eb3-predictions-rather-calculations-ii-216.html#post2734606

[pdfeb09]

Appreciate the gesture ... even if its a joke. But please don't unless there is genuine interest.


I do appreciate all the efforts.
After looking at your post about making money on a blog, I assumed you were in a lighter mood until the VB comes out and couldn't resist responding to it.. was twiddling my thumbs anyways.. :)
I seriously did not mind clicking on the ads here (usually I cautiously avoid them on any other site .. TOI anyone ?) and that was "before" I knew what u did with the money.. After Nishant's post however, I am glad I did.

Enough of this now.. not a perfect timing for this given how many ppl are watching the thread waiting for something other than this stupid explanation .. :)

[ssvp22]

I predict this site will go down as soon as VB is out ;)

[qesehmk]

Before people jump on ssvp22 .... let me clarify what he means ... .he means the site is going to crash. (last time it happend a couple of times!).


I predict this site will go down as soon as VB is out ;)

[vchirakala]

i think we need to register to view the message in the forum.

Let’s wait for the official VB to set the record straight. Right now the discussion is in complete flux with varying opinions. let’s rely on our predictions and if this news is correct be pleasantly surprised.

http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/forum14-members-forum/1944033-eb2-eb3-predictions-rather-calculations-ii-216.html#post2734606

[gcoracle]

Going to Britney Spears concert tonight. It would be even more sweeter if my PD (Dec 2007) gets current. If it doesn't, I have an excuse to have fun tonight.

[operas]

My PD is 2010 Feb : EB2.. I know I have a loooong time to go yet.. But really really hope the guys who missed it by a whisker last month & 07 get through. You guys have been waiting for too long.. :(

Glad to see this amazing community.. even though I haven't been actively posting, have been actively monitoring this thread :)

Cheers !

[TeddyKoochu]

i think we need to register to view the message in the forum.

Unfortunately registration is a requirement there unlike this forum. The wait for the VB should be over today evening anyway. Good luck to you and everyone. Since QBF does not certify any of that as authentic its best not to believe in it and be pleasantly surprised if it’s true.

[pg_at_q]

For the benefit of people who hate to register on IV, here's what rodnyb posted


Heard from a friend, Chinese immigration site were saying Sept VB Eb2C is 09/01/2007.
Anyone know how to translate, or details?
ÂäµØÉú¸ù(Immigration)°æͬÖ÷Ìâģʽ - δÃû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)

[pg_at_q]

And then several other people discounted it saying it's just a prediction from one user...no weightage in that news.


AND THEN ... someone posted saying the news might carry some weightage (posting reproduced below)....I guess VB will be out anytime now...so don't take all of this seriously...



mitbbs news seems to be authentic
One of my chinese friends contacted the guy who posted the Sept VB date on mittbbs and found that he got the information from his lawyer. VB is supposed to be released today.
It looks reliable.

DOS & USCIS need not work as per our predictions! The date is not too far from what is plausible as well. Let us hope that the news is true!

Anyway in the mean time one can check for any changes in the VB web page by going to
https://www.changedetection.com/log/...13603_log.html

[username]

I am just wondering way we are not seeing many I-485 approval this month (august) where as previous month (July) excuses was long weekend...

[TeddyKoochu]

I am just wondering way we are not seeing many I-485 approval this month (august) where as previous month (July) accuse was long weekend...

This has exactly been my concern, we had some discussions couple of pages back. The smaller number of EB2 I/C when compared with other categories are concerning and do not augur well for the Sep VB. However lets hope for the best.

[kingcaeser]

Dear Friends, Can some one indicate to me on what are the possibilities of getting my PD current? 17-Sep-2007 EB2. In a way my life is so dependent on this upcoming Visa bulletin..

[qblogfan]

I have been monitoring MITBBS for almost everyday.

I never heard such predictions.

I think somebody made it up to mislead folks on IV website.

I highly doubt the accuracy of this news.


And then several other people discounted it saying it's just a prediction from one user...no weightage in that news.


AND THEN ... someone posted saying the news might carry some weightage (posting reproduced below)....I guess VB will be out anytime now...so don't take all of this seriously...



mitbbs news seems to be authentic
One of my chinese friends contacted the guy who posted the Sept VB date on mittbbs and found that he got the information from his lawyer. VB is supposed to be released today.
It looks reliable.

DOS & USCIS need not work as per our predictions! The date is not too far from what is plausible as well. Let us hope that the news is true!

Anyway in the mean time one can check for any changes in the VB web page by going to
https://www.changedetection.com/log/...13603_log.html

[qesehmk]

kingcaesar what's your timeline i.e. how much time do you need? This date will need a BTM. However I am very certain regardless of when you file .. you should have your GC by Mar 2012.


Dear Friends, Can some one indicate to me on what are the possibilities of getting my PD current? 17-Sep-2007 EB2. In a way my life is so dependent on this upcoming Visa bulletin..

[kingcaeser]

I am really getting so confused by so many theories.. I do not understand most of them. Some strogly say, it will not move more than a month at the most, while some are strongly saying that it will go into 2008.. OMG.. I have no clue..

[pg_at_q]

I agree my friend...!






I have been monitoring MITBBS for almost everyday.

I never heard such predictions.

I think somebody made it up to mislead folks on IV website.

I highly doubt the accuracy of this news.

[qesehmk]

Guys ...
With QBFs explanation below - lets stop talking about it. Rumour begets rumour. So just be patient and not fan rumours in the interest of everybody.


I have been monitoring MITBBS for almost everyday.

I never heard such predictions.

I think somebody made it up to mislead folks on IV website.

I highly doubt the accuracy of this news.

[qblogfan]

EB2-China got some approvals in last weekend. Totally I saw at least 20 approvals.

I think they are approving PD prior to 4/15/2007.

I think we will see more approvals in this month. The number between 3.2007-4.2007 is much smaller than 10.2006-3.2007. that's why we are not seeing huge number of approvals.



This has exactly been my concern, we had some discussions couple of pages back. The smaller number of EB2 I/C when compared with other categories are concerning and do not augur well for the Sep VB. However lets hope for the best.

[username]

EB2-China got some approvals in last weekend. Totally I saw at least 20 approvals.

I think they are approving PD prior to 4/15/2007.

I think we will see more approvals in this month. The number between 3.2007-4.2007 is much smaller than 10.2006-3.2007. that's why we are not seeing huge number of approvals.

your explanation makes complete sense to me. Thanks.

[kingcaeser]

Dear qesehmk, I do not have enough job security at the moment and I have a family depending on me, both, here as well as in India. Hence the pressure. What happens when some one loses job after filing 485? Thanks for the encouraging thought you gave me! If I get my GC soon, I tell you, I cant thank you enough!!

[qesehmk]

6 months after filing 485, you become eligible to change jobs under AC21. However if you lose a job before that, your employer may withdraw the 140 and/or USCIS may cancel 485. The chance for either is small. But it can happen.

Regardless make sure that work with a lawyer if you accrue unlawful presence after losing your job. My advice will be to remain honest. Most of the American systems are designed to account for common sense. So they won't reject your 485 solely based on accrual of some unlawful presence if any.

But of course lets hope and pray you don't lose your job.


Dear qesehmk, I do not have enough job security at the moment and I have a family depending on me, both, here as well as in India. Hence the pressure. What happens when some one loses job after filing 485? Thanks for the encouraging thought you gave me! If I get my GC soon, I tell you, I cant thank you enough!!

[gcseeker]

KG

It depends on case to case.If the job loss is after six months of having filed the 485 or if the EAD has been received and six months have passed... one can use AC-21 portability rules and move to another job and complete the GC process in the new job.One will not need to do the labour or I-140 .

However if job loss is before the six months period , it essentially resets the entire process and one will have to find another employer and restart the GC process and can recapture the Old priority date.




Dear qesehmk, I do not have enough job security at the moment and I have a family depending on me, both, here as well as in India. Hence the pressure. What happens when some one loses job after filing 485? Thanks for the encouraging thought you gave me! If I get my GC soon, I tell you, I cant thank you enough!!

[operas]

Time to get back to work... Ill let this take care.. (python on linux)


import os, time, urllib
while True:
for x in xrange(5519,5650):
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_%d.html" % x)
if conn.code == 200:
os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(10*60)

[Jonty Rhodes]

Has visa bulletin ever been released so late in the day in past few years? Just asking as I am little curious. Most of the time what I have observed that they are released around late morning to early afternoon. It is already 2:45 PM per EST.

[ssvp22]

Time to get back to work... Ill let this take care.. (python on linux)


import os, time, urllib
while True:
for x in xrange(5519,5650):
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_%d.html" % x)
if conn.code == 200:
os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(10*60)

Already have this in place ;)

[neospeed]

Time to get back to work... Ill let this take care.. (python on linux)


import os, time, urllib
while True:
for x in xrange(5519,5650):
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_%d.html" % x)
if conn.code == 200:
os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(10*60)

You can just poll this url instead of checking those random html pages:

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf

[pg_at_q]

Maybe CO was attending the fed meeting...it just ended ... so maybe now he'll go back to his office while grabbing a sandwich from subway...look up his e-mails on the way..and then reply to the IT guy letting him know to publish the VB on the website.

[nishant2200]

Has visa bulletin ever been released so late in the day in past few years? Just asking as I am little curious. Most of the time what I have observed that they are released around late morning to early afternoon. It is already 2:45 PM per EST.

I mentioned in earlier post that the bulletin this year which moved dates to march 8th 2007, was released around 12:45 PST afternoon, as that's when I got call from my friend, who always calls me immediately as soon as VB is released, to inform. so it is possible. After 2PST , the probability goes almost 0. then it's curtains for one more day. When that happens, we can further discuss conspiracy theories as to why they did not release today :)

[indiasunil]

It will be updated around 3:50 ET (or) 10:30 AM ET.

Has visa bulletin ever been released so late in the day in past few years? Just asking as I am little curious. Most of the time what I have observed that they are released around late morning to early afternoon. It is already 2:45 PM per EST.

[harick]

I think if you replace the URL with http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf, you don't need the for loop.


Time to get back to work... Ill let this take care.. (python on linux)


import os, time, urllib
while True:
for x in xrange(5519,5650):
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_%d.html" % x)
if conn.code == 200:
os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(10*60)

[Jonty Rhodes]

Thanks nishant2200 and indiasunil for shedding some light on it. My PD is in 2011 but I still feel very excited and sometimes tense awaiting those VBs. I can imagine the tension and excitement among people with PDs in 2007 and 2008. Hope, you guys get current this VB.

[pg_at_q]

I think they are wising up now...maybe CO is talking with W.H. about the implication of recent announcement on the Visa Bulletin...they announced they'll let Entrepreneurs apply in EB2...but if EB2 is so messed up with almost 4-5 year wait for I/C, then they rule out I/C investing money or opening companies...

[polapragada]

This wait is killing me. I will stop refreshing the bulletin and get a coffee

[operas]

I think if you replace the URL with http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf, you don't need the for loop.

Thanks updated..

import os, time, urllib

while True:
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf")
if conn.code == 200: os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(2*60)

[Spectator]

Whilst it might seem perverse, I am more interested to see whether CO includes some notes on future movement in the VB.

They have been spectacularly lacking for some time.

The dates will be what they will be.

[pdfeb09]

Thanks updated..

import os, time, urllib

while True:
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf")
if conn.code == 200: os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(2*60)

import webbrowser

webbrowser.open("http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf")

will automatically open the link in your default browser.. !!

Here's my version:
if __name__ == "__main__":

import os, time, urllib,datetime,webbrowser
urlstr = "http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf"
while True:
print str(datetime.datetime.now())
conn = urllib.urlopen(urlstr)
print conn.code
if conn.code == 200:
webbrowser.open(urlstr)
break
time.sleep(2*60)

[ssvp22]

Thanks updated..

import os, time, urllib

while True:
conn = urllib.urlopen("http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf")
if conn.code == 200: os.system("notify-send -u critical -t 1000000000 \"Check bulletin..\"")
time.sleep(2*60)

Make it work every month ;)

from google.appengine.api import urlfetch
import logging
import datetime
from dateutil.relativedelta import relativedelta

now = datetime.datetime.now() + relativedelta( months = +1 )
month_name = now.strftime("%B")
year = now.strftime("%Y")
url = 'http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_%s%s.pdf' % (month_name, year)
try:
response = urlfetch.Fetch(url)
except Exception, e:
logging.exception(e)
return
if response.status_code == 404:
logging.info('HTTP Error while fetching Visa Bulletin. Error Code: %s' % response.status_code)
return
util.send_log_mail('Visa Bulletin Updated', 'Visa Bulletin Updated')
util.send_log_sms('Visa Bulletin Updated')

[gc_usa]

Make it work every month ;)

from google.appengine.api import urlfetch
import logging
import datetime
from dateutil.relativedelta import relativedelta

now = datetime.datetime.now() + relativedelta( months = +1 )
month_name = now.strftime("%B")
year = now.strftime("%Y")
url = 'http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_%s%s.pdf' % (month_name, year)
try:
response = urlfetch.Fetch(url)
except Exception, e:
logging.exception(e)
return
if response.status_code == 404:
logging.info('HTTP Error while fetching Visa Bulletin. Error Code: %s' % response.status_code)
return
util.send_log_mail('Visa Bulletin Updated', 'Visa Bulletin Updated')
util.send_log_sms('Visa Bulletin Updated')

I am not IT guy but if you guys get headache come see me... :) I have solution for post VB depression.

[michaelclarke]

Alcohol can be used to celebrate and to commiserate. Let's hope that more people will be celebrating once the VB is released and we see some good movement.

[neospeed]

are we sure about seeing sept vb today. Its already 3:30pm est. May be too late for today?

[vchirakala]

20 more mins to go ....if it is assumed to be released at 3:50 EDT

[operas]

import webbrowser

webbrowser.open("http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf")

will automatically open the link in your default browser.. !!

:) Did'nt know about webbrowser..Thanks !
Anyway its of no use to me when I work on the terminal most of the time.. and dont use a regular window manager..

Tri-monitor setup with Awesome window manager (http://awesome.naquadah.org) and plenty of mrxvt terminals is how I work ;)

[memk26]

are we sure about seeing sept vb today. Its already 3:30pm est. May be too late for today?

I rescheduled my doctor appointment for next friday :)

[rahil1]

My priority date is 05/02/2007...I cannot take it anymore

[jackbrown_890]

lets have a QBlog drinking party....BYOB

[Zoroark]

are we sure about seeing sept vb today. Its already 3:30pm est. May be too late for today?

Will know in about 30 minutes. Don't think they will release after 4 EST.

[gc_usa]

bulletin is out date is same :(