EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[donvar]

I vote for removing the dependents from being counted for visa numbers

I heard dependents from Diversity lottery are not counted towards the quota.
All controlled movements and restrictive policies are only for EB2 and EB3.

[rahil1]

There was a news while ago that H4 can get EAD where H1b is on AC21 , which means are on H1b ext beyond 6th year based on pending labor more than 365 days , approved labor and/ or approved I 140 and who does not have got chance to apply for I 485 because of retrogression. It can't be done through just internal memo but it has to go through rule making process where uscis , dhs or dos will publish rule for comment for 90 days and after that they can send out internal memo to all officer to approve such a request and also modify EAD form to accommodate such category.

Just to make it clear in past pre filling I 485 without date being current was on rule making agenda for 2 years and never make through finally DHS took it off.

No. The memo stated that EAD will be given to dependents of primary who has filed 485 but dependents haven't. One case will be primary applying 485 when single and dates retgrogress, when he gets married he is unable to file 485for his wife as priority date is not current. So such dependents will be given EAD

[leo07]

come on now...what did the poor H1B holder do to not deserve EAD?
EAD for spouse and not for the primary applicant:( Can you please point me to source, if you don't mind.

Thanks!

Recently there was a report saying, with H1b extension H4 will be eligilbe for EAD (starting in Q2 2012)

[Spectator]

I understand spec...but where are those numbers accounted? can they have an un accounted category?... there is always a category when they issue GC from lottery to family... where do the dependents fit in? should they be charged with family? Lot of questions arise with this...There are already classes that are not subject to numerical limitations :


INA 201(b)(1) Aliens Not Subject to Direct Numerical Limitations. - Aliens described in this subsection, who are not subject to the worldwide levels or numerical limitations of subsection (a), are as follows:

(1) (A) Special immigrants described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of section 101(a)(27) .

(B) Aliens who are admitted under section 207 or whose status is adjusted under section 209 .

(C) Aliens whose status is adjusted to permanent residence under section 210 , or 245A .

(D) Aliens whose removal is canceled under section 240A(a) .

(E) Aliens provided permanent resident status under section 249 .

All that is needed is to add Dependents of EB cases to that list.

In fact, this is provided for in Zoe Lofgren's H.R.2161 Bill which says :


(b) Spouses and Minor Children- Section 201(b)(1) of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151(b)(1)), as amended by this Act, is further amended by adding at the end the following:

`(G) Aliens who are the spouse or child of an alien admitted as an employment-based immigrant under section 203(b).'.

In case you are wondering, (F) would exempt STEM graduates with a Masters or Higher from designated Institutions as well as Outstanding Professors and Researchers (EB1B).

It is just a matter of who gets counted against the limited numbers.

[Monica12]

come on now...what did the poor H1B holder do to not deserve EAD?
EAD for spouse and not for the primary applicant:( Can you please point me to source, if you don't mind.

Thanks!

yes, I was thinking the same thing..good point Leo! it doesn't sound fair...

[donvar]

come on now...what did the poor H1B holder do to not deserve EAD?
EAD for spouse and not for the primary applicant:( Can you please point me to source, if you don't mind.

Thanks!

Ha ha Ha.Poor H1B is a slave :-)

My guess is they are not talking about I485 EAD, they are talking about working authorization (EAD) , something like the spouse of L1B visa holder get. This EAD is not related with GC.
I485 EAD will only be given after filing I485.

[soggadu]

Hmm...now i agree with that spec... thanks for letting me know...it's really great you do so much research before posting...increases the value...

on other note... i am a changed man now....eureka eureka....

[Spectator]

I heard dependents from Diversity lottery are not counted towards the quota.
All controlled movements and restrictive policies are only for EB2 and EB3.donvar,

Having looked at the yearly statistics, that appears to be a baseless rumour.

FY2010
Principal ----- 27,383
Dependent -- 22,380
Total ------- 49,763

FY2009
Principal ----- 26,243
Dependent -- 21,636
Total ------- 47,879

etc

Source DHS Yearbook 2009 and 2010

[leo07]

That was v.quick and informative.

and...you are from commonwealth:)

donvar,

Having looked at the yearly statistics, that appears to be a baseless rumour.

FY2010
Principal ----- 27,383
Dependent -- 22,380
Total ------- 49,763

FY2009
Principal ----- 26,243
Dependent -- 21,636
Total ------- 47,879

etc

Source DHS Yearbook 2009 and 2010

[donvar]

donvar,

Having looked at the yearly statistics, that appears to be a baseless rumour.

FY2010
Principal ----- 27,383
Dependent -- 22,380
Total ------- 49,763

FY2009
Principal ----- 26,243
Dependent -- 21,636
Total ------- 47,879

etc

Source DHS Yearbook 2009 and 2010

You are correct. I looked again and got hold of a USCIS briefing.

QUESTION: So on that question – so everyone, including the spouse and children are
included in the 50,000?
MR. WILCOCK: Yes, yes. They’re not over and above the 50,000. The 50,000 is
total diversity visa recipients, be they the principal applicant or the spouse or
children. Yeah.

Source : http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=33266

[rahil1]

Ha ha Ha.Poor H1B is a slave :-)

My guess is they are not talking about I485 EAD, they are talking about working authorization (EAD) , something like the spouse of L1B visa holder get. This EAD is not related with GC.
I485 EAD will only be given after filing I485.

The memo stated that EAD will be given to dependents of primary who has filed 485 but dependents haven't. One case will be primary applying 485 when single and dates retgrogress, when he gets married he is unable to file 485for his wife as priority date is not current. So such dependents will be given EAD

[indiaeb2]

Hello Guys - I just looked at Trackitt and some one with id "skgctrack" who has PD 08 Apr 2007 Eb2I got approved. This is a good news. we are seeing approval right of the bat.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Hello people,

I came across this blog couple of weeks back while searching for some more advanced information regarding priority dates. And I must tell you, I have been following it religiously from that point. In fact, I check this blog every 1-2 hours every day. It is becoming kind of an addiction now. The gurus and many other have been doing an amazing job churning out these difficult calculations and logically predicting the PDs. To be honest, I suck at Math and Statistics. I am a General Internist Physician working in a decent size hospital in a mid-size town and doing these calculations is not my cup of tea. But I truly appreciate the effort from all of you to provide more clarity about the process. Many thanks to those who have become current or have obtained their GCs but still extending their helping hands.

I am also a part of the EB2 mess. The only difference is that my PD is in 2011 unlike some of you have who have their PDs in 2007 and 2008. No hospital files for our green card during our 3 years of post-graduation training (MD) since they know we are going to leave once our training is over. So we always end up wasting 3 years of H1B. Unfortunately, I did my post-graduation from a small community hospital and I don't meet criteria for EB1A or EB1B since I didn't find a good opportunity to do research and publications. My attorney advised me not to file for EB2NIW saying that the applications are complex and it takes a long time these days to approve those applications. Also, there is no significant advantage over regular EB2 either except LC requirement is waived since the PDs are retrogressed.

I don't want to sound too pessimistic in my first post but I believe the waiting times for people in EB2IC remain terrible and will remain terrible (EB3 is out of question obviously with even longer wait times) unless the Congress brings some kind of legislation to recapture the unused visa numbers from previous years, remove the country limit or stop counting dependents on the available visa numbers. Just my 2 cents on this.

Thanks again for all the effort people are putting in. Good luck to those who are waiting to be current and congrats to those who are about to be current and those who have been greened.

Regards.

[ragx08]

Hello people,

There are, in general, two ways to predict the future. For example, you can use horoscopes, tea leaves, tarot cards, crystal ball, and so forth. Collectively, these are known as the “nutty methods.” Or you can put well-researched facts into sophisticated computer models, more commonly referred to as “a complete waste of time.” While all these approaches have their advantages, I find it’s a lot easier and economical to simply make stuff up.

Regards.

The later is called 'Nerdy' method :-)! Welcome to the forum!!!

[nishant2200]

From April 15th 2007 to August 15th 2007, how many PWMB are we expecting.

[bieber]

come on now...what did the poor H1B holder do to not deserve EAD?
EAD for spouse and not for the primary applicant:( Can you please point me to source, if you don't mind.

Thanks!
leo, it's more like some J1 dependent and L1 dependent where spouce of non-imigrant visa holder can work, it's restricted only for h1.
I will try to find source, but it was from Q&A session from CIS

[mesan123]

it does not sound fair....but i feel atleast this law gives little relief(50%) atleast as there spouses can get EAD's and need not go through this H1b tensions....what i mean is they also can work like the L2 visa....that is v good move if this is made.... :)


yes, I was thinking the same thing..good point Leo! it doesn't sound fair...

[Spectator]

From April 15th 2007 to August 15th 2007, how many PWMB are we expecting.nishant,

Conservatively, I think probably 3.5 to 4k for EB2-IC. I don't expect those to be approved this year, even if the COD moves that far.

Others may disagree.

[rahil1]

leo, it's more like some J1 dependent and L1 dependent where spouce of non-imigrant visa holder can work, it's restricted only for h1.
I will try to find source, but it was from Q&A session from CIS

It is not for all h1bs. It's only for h1b's who filed their aid and dependents didn' t

[mesan123]

Welcome to the form.....well if it helps....my priority date is also in feb 2011...my guess is we can hope our date may be current in next 4-5 years, if get the SOFAD every year...

If some miracle happens and these congressmen do pass the bill... where they will use the unused visa, remove spouses from counting, yes we can be current in 2 years.....




Hello people,

I came across this blog couple of weeks back while searching for some more advanced information regarding priority dates. And I must tell you, I have been following it religiously from that point. In fact, I check this blog every 1-2 hours every day. It is becoming kind of an addiction now. The gurus and many other have been doing an amazing job churning out these difficult calculations and logically predicting the PDs. To be honest, I suck at Math and Statistics. I am a General Internist Physician working in a decent size hospital in a mid-size town and doing these calculations is not my cup of tea. But I truly appreciate the effort from all of you to provide more clarity about the process. Many thanks to those who have become current or have obtained their GCs but still extending their helping hands.

I am also a part of the EB2 mess. The only difference is that my PD is in 2011 unlike some of you have who have their PDs in 2007 and 2008. No hospital files for our green card during our 3 years of post-graduation training (MD) since they know we are going to leave once our training is over. So we always end up wasting 3 years of H1B. Unfortunately, I did my post-graduation from a small community hospital and I don't meet criteria for EB1A or EB1B since I didn't find a good opportunity to do research and publications. My attorney advised me not to file for EB2NIW saying that the applications are complex and it takes a long time these days to approve those applications. Also, there is no significant advantage over regular EB2 either except LC requirement is waived since the PDs are retrogressed.

I don't want to sound too pessimistic in my first post but I believe the waiting times for people in EB2IC remain terrible and will remain terrible (EB3 is out of question obviously with even longer wait times) unless the Congress brings some kind of legislation to recapture the unused visa numbers from previous years, remove the country limit or stop counting dependents on the available visa numbers. Just my 2 cents on this.

Thanks again for all the effort people are putting in. Good luck to those who are waiting to be current and congrats to those who are about to be current and those who have been greened.

Regards.

[nishant2200]

Spec, what is your other opposite end estimate, this time, not conservative.


nishant,

Conservatively, I think probably 3.5 to 4k for EB2-IC. I don't expect those to be approved this year, even if the COD moves that far.

Others may disagree.

[soggadu]

rahil bhai... kaise baatien kartien ho aap... read below...

"The proposed change would allow spouses in H-4 status to apply for employment authorization in a limited circumstance in which the principal H-1B visa holder has started the green card process and has had to extend his or her visa status under specific circumstances."

Most important one is

"The USCIS memo was only a list of administrative proposals that could be used to solve some current immigration problems. It is not possible to say how many of these proposals are being considered, or will ever be implemented."

Is the new EB2 category recently discussed part/becoz of this memo?

waise the real unedited doc is

http://abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/memo-on-alternatives-to-comprehensive-immigration-reform.pdf

[bieber]

It is not for all h1bs. It's only for h1b's who filed their aid and dependents didn' t
Yes, I answered leo in response to why not for h1s

Great find Kanmani, very quick

[Spectator]

Spec, what is your other opposite end estimate, this time, not conservative.As far as I can tell, the theoretical maximum for EB2-IC would be about 6k.

[soggadu]

The H4 EAD memo has the following....Does this mean the rule is approved... What do you guys think????


Ex tend employment authorization to H-4 dependent. Spouses of H-I B pr'incipals where the principals are also applicants for lawful permanent residence under AC 21.

USCIS Senior Leaders have already approved this course of action; it is therefore recommended
in the context of identifying administrative relief options that their decision be communicated to
the Department of Homeland Security and to the White House.

Implementation Method: Notice of Proposed Rule making (NPRM).

Resources/Considerations: Coordinate with DHS Policy and White House prior to rule drafting.
uscis systems (CLAIMS, etc.) will need to be modified 10 accommodate EADs for this group
of H-4s.

Target! Date: Minimum of 12 months to issue final rule.

[qesehmk]

That sounds plenty. If you think about both bounds 3K and 6K and then calculate per month - that comes to about 500-1000 per month - given that it is highly unlikely that somebody prior to Mar 2007 couldn't file. (p.s. Mar-Aug is 6 months. )

500-1000 is almost 25-50% of the EB2IC rate per month. It is highly unlikely that more than 50% people missed the boat. But its entirely possible that the lower bound could be less than 25%.



As far as I can tell, the theoretical maximum for EB2-IC would be about 6k.

[Spectator]

soggadu,

Here's my opinion.

The White House asked the various agencies for some creative suggestions to alleviate problems in the system that could be implement by regulation rather than a change to the law.

In that context, USCIS suggested this proposal and how it might be implemented.

USCIS are unlikely to implement it of their own back and it has gone deathly quiet since this surfaced. There was intense criticism of some of the other suggestions after the memo was leaked.

At various times USCIS have also proposed moving to an I-485 pre-registration scheme - again something that appears to have been quietly dropped.

It is good that people have thought about this issue, but I would be surprised if it actually happens.

[nishant2200]

As far as I can tell, the theoretical maximum for EB2-IC would be about 6k.

Thank you. muchos gracias.

[nishant2200]

Here is the memo copy ..........

http://www2.nationalreview.com/memo_UCIS_072910.html

Excellent.

Now I see that it only says H4 for those whose principal applicant is already extended H under AC21. It does not mention that the principal applicant needs to have a pending I-485.

You can have your H1 extended for a year or three years under AC21 law, if your labor is approved and 140 pending, or 140 approved , respectively, and you belong to a retrogressed country.

[TeddyKoochu]

That sounds plenty. If you think about both bounds 3K and 6K and then calculate per month - that comes to about 500-1000 per month - given that it is highly unlikely that somebody prior to Mar 2007 couldn't file. (p.s. Mar-Aug is 6 months. )

500-1000 is almost 25-50% of the EB2IC rate per month. It is highly unlikely that more than 50% people missed the boat. But its entirely possible that the lower bound could be less than 25%.

Guys I agree with you that we would hardly find any April PWMB's, this count starts from May. PWMB's mostly had their labors filed in the Atlanta service center which was taking 2-3 months those days as opposed to Chicago which was taking 2-3 days. In the inventory that I had created long back, I had put in the following figures May - 500, Jun - 1000, Jul -2000. These figures are guesstimates based on the demand in those months and a likelihood of people being PWMB's. In that light Jul figures are high because Jul had a very high number of applicants and most Atlanta folks for Jul would have missed for sure. This calculation is not as elegant as what Veni & Spec have calculated in facts and data but Ball Park the guesstimates will be ok. Jul 2007 really represented the peak of filing.

[Spectator]

That sounds plenty. If you think about both bounds 3K and 6K and then calculate per month - that comes to about 500-1000 per month - given that it is highly unlikely that somebody prior to Mar 2007 couldn't file. (p.s. Mar-Aug is 6 months. )

500-1000 is almost 25-50% of the EB2IC rate per month. It is highly unlikely that more than 50% people missed the boat. But its entirely possible that the lower bound could be less than 25%.Q,

I think the upper bound is totally unrealistic. The figures are based on the PERM data for Certifications after August 17 2007

The assumptions I used for the 3.5k were:

PERM to I-485 -------- 80%
I-140 to I-485 -------- 2.05
EB2 % ---------------- 60%
Still Active ------------- 85%

which converted to

Part April ------- 130
May ------------ 584
June ----------- 926
July ---------- 1,003
Part August ---- 878
Total --------- 3,521

I leave it to you to decide whether that is realistic.

[nishant2200]

Guys I agree with you that we would hardly find any April PWMB's, this count starts from May. PWMB's mostly had their labors filed in the Atlanta service center which was taking 2-3 months those days as opposed to Chicago which was taking 2-3 days. In the inventory that I had created long back, I had put in the following figures May - 500, Jun - 1000, Jul -2000. These figures are guesstimates based on the demand in those months and a likelihood of people being PWMB's. In that light Jul figures are high because Jul had a very high number of applicants and most Atlanta folks for Jul would have missed for sure. This calculation is not as elegant as what Veni & Spec have calculated in facts and data but Ball Park the guesstimates will be ok. Jul 2007 really represented the peak of filing.

Teddy, I also think that once dates got current in July, many individuals got "awakened" to the big guy called GC, and they pushed their companies to start the GC process. There was also a layman logic of since everyone till now is current, the next opening will take us in, not everyone thought about movement with retrogression can be this serious or slow. I have got this input after talking with various acquaintances. Hence, there is a definite bulge in 2007-2008.

[soggadu]

soggadu,

Here's my opinion.

The White House asked the various agencies for some creative suggestions to alleviate problems in the system that could be implement by regulation rather than a change to the law.

In that context, USCIS suggested this proposal and how it might be implemented.

USCIS are unlikely to implement it of their own back and it has gone deathly quiet since this surfaced. There was intense criticism of some of the other suggestions after the memo was leaked.

At various times USCIS have also proposed moving to an I-485 pre-registration scheme - again something that appears to have been quietly dropped.

It is good that people have thought about this issue, but I would be surprised if it actually happens.

Thank you Spec... I really felt it was done deal as they said it is already approved...but as you said, it can be dropped at any time... also the controversies surrounding this leaked memo are mostly for other suggestions and i see/read no controversies for this H4 suggestion... keeping my fingers crossed....

[Stemcell]

Hello people,

I came across this blog couple of weeks back while searching for some more advanced information regarding priority dates. And I must tell you, I have been following it religiously from that point. In fact, I check this blog every 1-2 hours every day. It is becoming kind of an addiction now. The gurus and many other have been doing an amazing job churning out these difficult calculations and logically predicting the PDs. To be honest, I suck at Math and Statistics. I am a General Internist Physician working in a decent size hospital in a mid-size town and doing these calculations is not my cup of tea. But I truly appreciate the effort from all of you to provide more clarity about the process. Many thanks to those who have become current or have obtained their GCs but still extending their helping hands.

I am also a part of the EB2 mess. The only difference is that my PD is in 2011 unlike some of you have who have their PDs in 2007 and 2008. No hospital files for our green card during our 3 years of post-graduation training (MD) since they know we are going to leave once our training is over. So we always end up wasting 3 years of H1B. Unfortunately, I did my post-graduation from a small community hospital and I don't meet criteria for EB1A or EB1B since I didn't find a good opportunity to do research and publications. My attorney advised me not to file for EB2NIW saying that the applications are complex and it takes a long time these days to approve those applications. Also, there is no significant advantage over regular EB2 either except LC requirement is waived since the PDs are retrogressed.

I don't want to sound too pessimistic in my first post but I believe the waiting times for people in EB2IC remain terrible and will remain terrible (EB3 is out of question obviously with even longer wait times) unless the Congress brings some kind of legislation to recapture the unused visa numbers from previous years, remove the country limit or stop counting dependents on the available visa numbers. Just my 2 cents on this.

Thanks again for all the effort people are putting in. Good luck to those who are waiting to be current and congrats to those who are about to be current and those who have been greened.

Regards.


Jonty
I hear you man.
Very similar situation as your's.
I have been hanging in there waiting to do Fellowship since past 5 years and the wait is killing me.....If i had to start all over again i would do Fellowship first and then wait it out. If your happy being a General Internist there is nothing wrong with that of course.

[nishant2200]

Coming back to PWMB which have not yet surfaced. 3.5k to 6k. Let's say I am taking 4.5k, and adding 500 for PWMB who surfaced in last bulletin.

Last demand data has around 10k people left.

last movement reduced that demand by 3k and now 7k are left.

Suppose dates move to full extent of PWMB grabbing.

7k demand left + 5k PWMB = 12k demand to begin new FY 2012 with.

Each month, let's say 500 porting, worst case, leading to 6k porting in a year.

So they already have a demand of 12k/12 + 6k/12 = 1500 visas per month.

just speaking loud rough calculations.

we desperately need good SOFAD next FY :(

[nishant2200]

Found a hole.

This September bulletin will further reduce the 7k demand left by something. Let's say 3k.

so 4k demand left + 5k PWMB = 9k demand to begin FY 2012 with.

9k/12 + 6k/12 = 1250 visas per month.


Coming back to PWMB which have not yet surfaced. 3.5k to 6k. Let's say I am taking 4.5k, and adding 500 for PWMB who surfaced in last bulletin.

Last demand data has around 10k people left.

last movement reduced that demand by 3k and now 7k are left.

Suppose dates move to full extent of PWMB grabbing.

7k demand left + 5k PWMB = 12k demand to begin new FY 2012 with.

Each month, let's say 500 porting, worst case, leading to 6k porting in a year.

So they already have a demand of 12k/12 + 6k/12 = 1500 visas per month.

just speaking loud rough calculations.

we desperately need good SOFAD next FY :(

[qesehmk]

Spec

I agree. That's why I said 6K is plenty.

In fact 3.5K itself seems reasonably accurage. May be + or - 1K.

Teddy, your numbers match Specs but I guess the PERM approvals are more spread out than your assumptions.

I remember on IV, I had done some calculations and I had thought that 7% people missed filing between Jan and Aug. So that number itself was probably less than 3.5K. May be 4K could be used as upper bound with very high certainty.


Q,

I think the upper bound is totally unrealistic. The figures are based on the PERM data for Certifications after August 17 2007

The assumptions I used for the 3.5k were:

PERM to I-485 -------- 80%
I-140 to I-485 -------- 2.05
EB2 % ---------------- 60%
Still Active ------------- 85%

which converted to

Part April ------- 130
May ------------ 584
June ----------- 926
July ---------- 1,003
Part August ---- 878
Total --------- 3,521

I leave it to you to decide whether that is realistic.


Guys I agree with you that we would hardly find any April PWMB's, this count starts from May. PWMB's mostly had their labors filed in the Atlanta service center which was taking 2-3 months those days as opposed to Chicago which was taking 2-3 days. In the inventory that I had created long back, I had put in the following figures May - 500, Jun - 1000, Jul -2000. These figures are guesstimates based on the demand in those months and a likelihood of people being PWMB's. In that light Jul figures are high because Jul had a very high number of applicants and most Atlanta folks for Jul would have missed for sure. This calculation is not as elegant as what Veni & Spec have calculated in facts and data but Ball Park the guesstimates will be ok. Jul 2007 really represented the peak of filing.

[nishant2200]

continuing my above psots, so this projection says, 15k known demand.

5.6k for regular I/C available.

reduces to 9.4k known demand projection.

leftover visas: EB4 - 7k , EB5 - 4k, EB1 - 3k, EB2 ROW - 4k = 18k

18k - 9.4k = 8.6k

8.6k / 2.5k approx new demand a month = 3.5

3.5 months post August 15 2007 is 1st December 2007. Add some buffer for safety for intake in BTM. Hence anywhere from 1st December 2007 to Q1 2008, by the most conservative calculations

[qesehmk]

Nishant

I was going to say that. But you found it yourself! Agree overall. PWMB I think would be lower than 6K. May be 3K is more than enough and some of that is already factored into ROW. So the real hit for EB2IC could be 2K.


Found a hole.

This September bulletin will further reduce the 7k demand left by something. Let's say 3k.

so 4k demand left + 5k PWMB = 9k demand to begin FY 2012 with.

9k/12 + 6k/12 = 1250 visas per month.

[nishant2200]

excellent Q.

so then:

continuing my above psots, so this projection says, 15k - 2k (PWMB reduction, I am counting 3k PWMB instead of 5k) = 13k known demand.

5.6k for regular I/C available.

reduces to 7.4k known demand projection.

leftover visas projection worst case for FY 2012: EB4 - 7k , EB5 - 4k, EB1 - 3k, EB2 ROW - 4k = 18k

18k - 7.4k = 10.6k

10.6k / 2.5k approx new demand a month = 4.25

4.25 months post August 15 2007 is 22nd December 2007. Add some buffer for safety for intake in BTM. Hence anywhere from 22nd December 2007 to Q1 2008, by the most conservative calculations

[qesehmk]

I agree. Some people may have disagreement by one or two months here and there. But the grand picture is that if USCIS needs to approve all these cases by Sep 2012 then they must be in the system latest by March 2012.


excellent Q.

so then:

continuing my above psots, so this projection says, 15k - 2k (PWMB reduction, I am counting 3k PWMB instead of 5k) = 13k known demand.

5.6k for regular I/C available.

reduces to 7.4k known demand projection.

leftover visas projection worst case for FY 2012: EB4 - 7k , EB5 - 4k, EB1 - 3k, EB2 ROW - 4k = 18k

18k - 7.4k = 10.6k

10.6k / 2.5k approx new demand a month = 4.25

4.25 months post August 15 2007 is 22nd December 2007. Add some buffer for safety for intake in BTM. Hence anywhere from 22nd December 2007 to Q1 2008, by the most conservative calculations

[zenmaster]

Guys,
I am tempted to make one final bet for this FY ! :p
Sep Bulletin is going to go for BTM until mid2008 !

[kolugc]

My friend with PD 22 march 2007 got 485 approved today. He is not on Trackitt....

[nishant2200]

K, I am really happy to know that CO acknowledges this being a area which is being looked upon. That also to me shows that he is aware that people would love a BTM just to get EAD :)

Ron is correct, without changing the language of the legislation, this cannot happen potentially.

However, just like in case of CP, when the DOS happily sends for a invoice on the assumption the date may become current in the next few months, "interpreting" the language to be "an immigrant visa may be available in the immediate future", and hence justifying a BTM on the grounds of enabling the adjudicating agency (USCIS) to in turn enable the DOS to not waste visas and follow their SO law, could be theoritically possible. This is a very important premise of CP workflow already. If that is not possible, DOS is afraid to take that step, then to my mind, we would have to wait for the point when demand becomes 0, visa available is > 0, and DOS makes the category current, whilst supplying the >0 visas in meantime to the next eligible category, and if there is no next eligible, the visas would go to FB next FY, and if they don't consume, waste.

(In above we can also say that demand is such that visas are more than it, and can be assigned to in the next bulletin month, so if you say that only 100 demand, and 500 visas ready to be allocated next month to this demand, then basically to me, it sounds same as 0 and > 0)


Ron Gotcher says..

"At the AILA California Conference last November, Charlie Oppenheim was asked if he saw any chance of a repeat of the July 2007 situation. He replied that he didn't, but that there were active talks being held with an idea toward allowing those with approved preference petitions (I-130/I-140) to apply for adjustment of status immediately, even if their priority dates were not yet current. I'm not quite sure how they could square that with the requirement of Section 245(a)(3) "an immigrant visa is immediately available to him at the time his application is filed." Still, if they offer it, I won't turn it down."


What do you guys think?

[qesehmk]

Guys.

After nnnn's name change, I received another request today and I did it.

But in future for such requests I am going to have to ask you to reregister. Apologize in advance for the same.

Regards
Q

[Jonty Rhodes]

Jonty
I hear you man.
Very similar situation as your's.
I have been hanging in there waiting to do Fellowship since past 5 years and the wait is killing me.....If i had to start all over again i would do Fellowship first and then wait it out. If your happy being a General Internist there is nothing wrong with that of course.

That is true my friend. I want to do fellowship also. Applied for fellowship during residency but did not get many interviews. Whatever interviews I gave, I was told that they will prefer Citizen and GC holders first. If they don't get them, then they will look for people with J1. H1Bs are last priority.

And being from the same profession, I can understand how difficult it must be for you to be waiting from last 5 years waiting to do fellowship. I hope the situation improves soon especially when this country has such a shortage of Primary Care Physicians.

When I signed the job, my employer told me that he was looking for eligible candidates from last 6-7 months and only 5 people came for interview. All of them were on H1B and not a single US citizen or GC holder applied. That is the story with every recruiter and hospital with Primary Care Physicians, be it a big city or small town.

Sorry, this was a comment deviating from the main topic. Administrators, please feel free to remove if it is not suitable.

[druvraj]

I agree. Some people may have disagreement by one or two months here and there. But the grand picture is that if USCIS needs to approve all these cases by Sep 2012 then they must be in the system latest by March 2012.

I feel like there might be a lot of people from EB2IC who have left for their country of birth to take on more lucrative offer or simple many companies in US give fellow Indians and Chinese similar pay but work in their respective countries. Is there any place which can calculate these dropouts?

[vishnu]

Gurus - have a question. If there are any spare visas (not saying there will be, but just an IF) and they have to pass them down to EB3, can they do so without making the EB category current?

[vchirakala]

nishanth,

can you please let me know what these acronymns stand for ..

BTM , SOFAD and so on ...

thanks
K, I am really happy to know that CO acknowledges this being a area which is being looked upon. That also to me shows that he is aware that people would love a BTM just to get EAD :)

Ron is correct, without changing the language of the legislation, this cannot happen potentially.

However, just like in case of CP, when the DOS happily sends for a invoice on the assumption the date may become current in the next few months, "interpreting" the language to be "an immigrant visa may be available in the immediate future", and hence justifying a BTM on the grounds of enabling the adjudicating agency (USCIS) to in turn enable the DOS to not waste visas and follow their SO law, could be theoritically possible. This is a very important premise of CP workflow already. If that is not possible, DOS is afraid to take that step, then to my mind, we would have to wait for the point when demand becomes 0, visa available is > 0, and DOS makes the category current, whilst supplying the >0 visas in meantime to the next eligible category, and if there is no next eligible, the visas would go to FB next FY, and if they don't consume, waste.

(In above we can also say that demand is such that visas are more than it, and can be assigned to in the next bulletin month, so if you say that only 100 demand, and 500 visas ready to be allocated next month to this demand, then basically to me, it sounds same as 0 and > 0)

[natvyas]

nishanth,

can you please let me know what these acronymns stand for ..

BTM , SOFAD and so on ...

thanks

Please refer to page 1 of the thread

[druvraj]

nishanth,

can you please let me know what these acronymns stand for ..

BTM , SOFAD and so on ...

thanks


BTM - Big Temporary Movement

SOFAD - Spill Over Fall Across Demand

Q has done an amazng job on the first page itself. Please refer to that page on this very forum.

[qesehmk]

I haven't tried before but a rough way to calculate could be as follows:

Look at trackitt EB2IC cases w PD in 2006 that are pending. Note the number down. Then filter those cases that were last updated in Sep 2010 or before. More than likely these people whose cases are current but are still pending and hte people don't care to update them is the right population to look at. I will assume 80% cases are either already appproved but not updated or withdrawn etc. Then of that I will assume 80% cases actually approved and 20% withdrawn. That 20% would be the 2006 cases that were withdrawn. I will take that as a % of total approved cases from 2006. That would be the % people typically going back to India.

Again ... a very rough estimate. You can change your assumptions and figure out yourself.




Gurus - have a question. If there are any spare visas (not saying there will be, but just an IF) and they have to pass them down to EB3, can they do so without making the EB category current?

[Spectator]

excellent Q.

so then:

continuing my above psots, so this projection says, 15k - 2k (PWMB reduction, I am counting 3k PWMB instead of 5k) = 13k known demand.

5.6k for regular I/C available.

reduces to 7.4k known demand projection.

leftover visas projection worst case for FY 2012: EB4 - 7k , EB5 - 4k, EB1 - 3k, EB2 ROW - 4k = 18k

18k - 7.4k = 10.6k

10.6k / 2.5k approx new demand a month = 4.25

4.25 months post August 15 2007 is 22nd December 2007. Add some buffer for safety for intake in BTM. Hence anywhere from 22nd December 2007 to Q1 2008, by the most conservative calculationsnishant,

Glad to see you are really getting into this!

Here's some figures that might help you.

On the same basis as I reached 3.5k above, the number to clear the rest of August through the end of December 2007 would be 8.9k. The total number from April 15 2007 through the end of December 2007 would be 12.4k.

That, of course excludes any porting cases.

A question. Where is the 7k for EB4 coming from? EB4 has not been a contributor to spillover to date.

Looking forward to the next iteration.

[soggadu]

I agree. Some people may have disagreement by one or two months here and there. But the grand picture is that if USCIS needs to approve all these cases by Sep 2012 then they must be in the system latest by March 2012.

Team... so everybody is now anticipating the aug bulletin to go beyond Aug 07 ?

[vchirakala]

I think the sep bulletin ..thats what you meant right soggadu ??

Team... so everybody is now anticipating the aug bulletin to go beyond Aug 07 ?

[stillanoptimist]

Isn't this memo old news? The preliminary memo (which is what I think this was) was to just propose a rule which would go through committees and discussions towards final rule-making.The USCIS abandoned this approach when pressured by legislators who wanted to go with CIR.


The H4 EAD memo has the following....Does this mean the rule is approved... What do you guys think????


Ex tend employment authorization to H-4 dependent. Spouses of H-I B pr'incipals where the principals are also applicants for lawful permanent residence under AC 21.

USCIS Senior Leaders have already approved this course of action; it is therefore recommended
in the context of identifying administrative relief options that their decision be communicated to
the Department of Homeland Security and to the White House.

Implementation Method: Notice of Proposed Rule making (NPRM).

Resources/Considerations: Coordinate with DHS Policy and White House prior to rule drafting.
uscis systems (CLAIMS, etc.) will need to be modified 10 accommodate EADs for this group
of H-4s.

Target! Date: Minimum of 12 months to issue final rule.

[Spectator]

Team... so everybody is now anticipating the aug bulletin to go beyond Aug 07 ?soggadu,

This is talking about next year FY2012.

[bieber]

nishant,

Glad to see you are really getting into this!

Here's some figures that might help you.

On the same basis as I reached 3.5k above, the number to clear the rest of August through the end of December 2007 would be 8.9k. The total number from April 15 2007 through the end of December 2007 would be 12.4k.

That, of course excludes any porting cases.

A question. Where is the 7k for EB4 coming from? EB4 has not been a contributor to spillover to date.

Looking forward to the next iteration.

Spec,

is this EB2I only or EB2IC? I have 16k that you calculated for EB2IC for 2007 which excludes existining inventory and porting

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends I just saw the approval trend for Trackitt. We should note that this month has seen all working days. There are only 14 approvals so far. A point to note is that EB1 approvals seem to be up and EB2-I approvals are just 50% of the pie.
Lets see how the trend shapes up in the next 4-5 days, right now the figures are small we should not be judgmental about it, however its prudent to note that when this year began even small Trackitt numbers gave a very good indicator of the trend. The small numbers seem to indicate that numbers overall maybe close to exhaustion otherwise we could have expected more approvals.

EB1 - C - 3
EB1 - B - 1
EB2 ROW - 2
EB2 - I - 7
EB3 - I - 1

[Spectator]

Spec,

is this EB2I only or EB2IC? I have 16k that you calculated for EB2IC for 2007 which excludes existing inventory and portingIt is for EB2-IC with the assumptions I gave above.

The 16k (actually the 15.5k I mentioned) is still valid, but didn't, for instance, include any assumptions about abandonments and I have also lowered the ratio from 2.1 to 2.05 in the latest figures.

[nishant2200]

My bad. Wrong impression about EB4 then. Need to re-calibrate why I have this 18k worse case SO in my mind.

I am currently in a meeting looking at spreadsheets etc presentation by the chief architect, and internally my mind is thinking about this :)


nishant,

Glad to see you are really getting into this!

Here's some figures that might help you.

On the same basis as I reached 3.5k above, the number to clear the rest of August through the end of December 2007 would be 8.9k. The total number from April 15 2007 through the end of December 2007 would be 12.4k.

That, of course excludes any porting cases.

A question. Where is the 7k for EB4 coming from? EB4 has not been a contributor to spillover to date.

Looking forward to the next iteration.

[vedu]

This site lists I-140 and I-485 approval rate on yearly basis. How authentic is this information? Did people already discuss this on this forum?

http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html

[bieber]

It is for EB2-IC with the assumptions I gave above.

The 16k (actually the 15.5k I mentioned) is still valid, but didn't, for instance, include any assumptions about abandonments and I have also lowered the ratio from 2.1 to 2.05 in the latest figures.
Thanks Spec

[Spectator]

Friends I just saw the approval trend for Trackitt. We should note that this month has seen all working days. There are only 14 approvals so far. A point to note is that EB1 approvals seem to be up and EB2-I approvals are just 50% of the pie.
Lets see how the trend shapes up in the next 4-5 days, right now the figures are small we should not be judgmental about it, however its prudent to note that when this year began even small Trackitt numbers gave a very good indicator of the trend. The small numbers seem to indicate that numbers overall maybe close to exhaustion otherwise we could have expected more approvals.

EB1 - C - 3
EB1 - B - 1
EB2 ROW - 2
EB2 - I - 7
EB3 - I - 1Teddy,

There is always a lag before the true numbers seem to appear on Trackitt.

Whilst compiling the daily figures, probably 80% (a guess, but certainly the vast majority) of the those I have added in August have had a July approval date.

It is an interesting observation and I have also noticed a slight upswing in EB1 approvals.

I note and agree with your caution.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

Check your filters. I can see 40+ Indian cases alone for this month. Roughly 10 EB2IC per day are being approved.

However this is still too less. We should be seeing 22 or so per day.



Friends I just saw the approval trend for Trackitt. We should note that this month has seen all working days. There are only 14 approvals so far. A point to note is that EB1 approvals seem to be up and EB2-I approvals are just 50% of the pie.
Lets see how the trend shapes up in the next 4-5 days, right now the figures are small we should not be judgmental about it, however its prudent to note that when this year began even small Trackitt numbers gave a very good indicator of the trend. The small numbers seem to indicate that numbers overall maybe close to exhaustion otherwise we could have expected more approvals.

EB1 - C - 3
EB1 - B - 1
EB2 ROW - 2
EB2 - I - 7
EB3 - I - 1

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

Check your filters. I can see 40+ Indian cases alone for this month. Roughly 10 EB2IC per day are being approved.

However this is still too less. We should be seeing 22 or so per day.

Q if you sort the list without any criteria by the I485 / Approval denial date there are only 14 cases for 08/2011. Alternately in the advanced settings put Aug 2011 to Aug 2011 as the 485 approval range. Please let me know if Iam missing something. Are you looking at Jul by any chance ?

[cantwaitlonger]

Many people who applied during Jul 2007 could have abandoned their applications and left for their home countries, courtesy the 2008 crisis and lousy job market. Before approving these preadjudicated cases that have been pending for ~4yrs, does USCIS check to see if the people behind the applications are indeed available to receive their GCs? Woudn't this lead to serious wastage if these applications were abandoned?
If there has been a prior discussion on this, pls point me to it. Thanks!

[qesehmk]

Teddy

You are right! I was only looking at last update date in August.

If the trend continues through Tue next week - this could be a very good news (BTM) or very bad news (Retro) in Sep bulletin. Lets see.



Q if you sort the list without any criteria by the I485 / Approval denial date there are only 14 cases for 08/2011. Alternately in the advanced settings put Aug 2011 to Aug 2011 as the 485 approval range. Please let me know if Iam missing something. Are you looking at Jul by any chance ?

[Spectator]

This site lists I-140 and I-485 approval rate on yearly basis. How authentic is this information? Did people already discuss this on this forum?

http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.htmlvedu,

I have seen the site and searched for an explanation of what the figures represent and the source of the figures, but but I have not found that information.

The totals for I-140 and I-485 do not match the data published by USCIS on the dashboard or recent reports.

I prefer to use the official data that USCIS provide.

The approval % data would be useful, but I can't trust the data without knowing how it is compiled.

[nishant2200]

Q, I think if its retro, then it means DOS/USCIS/VO themselves caught by surprise. I think their antics seem highly in favor of moving cautiously and avoiding dates retro.


Teddy

You are right! I was only looking at last update date in August.

If the trend continues through Tue next week - this could be a very good news (BTM) or very bad news (Retro) in Sep bulletin. Lets see.

[qesehmk]

i m thinking the antics are to make a case for btm. SPEC may have some insight how law ties their hands for moving dates and how such kind of artificial stalling might allow them to move dates
Q, I think if its retro, then it means DOS/USCIS/VO themselves caught by surprise. I think their antics seem highly in favor of moving cautiously and avoiding dates retro.

[leo07]

Good one Teddy.
Historically, Trackitt data from first 5-7 working days of every month had been a good indicator of the direction of the vb. Let's keep our fingers crossed. So far it correlates to 3-4 weeks of VB movement as of now?

Friends I just saw the approval trend for Trackitt. We should note that this month has seen all working days. There are only 14 approvals so far. A point to note is that EB1 approvals seem to be up and EB2-I approvals are just 50% of the pie.
Lets see how the trend shapes up in the next 4-5 days, right now the figures are small we should not be judgmental about it, however its prudent to note that when this year began even small Trackitt numbers gave a very good indicator of the trend. The small numbers seem to indicate that numbers overall maybe close to exhaustion otherwise we could have expected more approvals.

EB1 - C - 3
EB1 - B - 1
EB2 ROW - 2
EB2 - I - 7
EB3 - I - 1

[TeddyKoochu]

Q / Nishant, Guys there is another angle to this, spillover to EB2 I/C should only happen if there are insufficient number of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases. The inventory shows almost an unprecedented backlog of both EB2 ROW and EB1 so this could definitely be a way to show good results within the approvable inventory, cases of EB2 I/C beyond 15th Apr are not approvable. Iam sure a lot of management reporting must be happening within USCIS / DOS and after Jul this point must have caught their attention. Overall I feel this is an indicator that there will be conservative movement in September, BTM is more likely if the dates can come closer to 15th Aug at the first place or there is a danger of SOFAD falling down, I don't think that’s the case. Iam sure spec can give us the legal angle, the concern here is that the further we are away from 15-AUG-2007 by the Sep VB greater will be the delay in BTM or any kind of intake.

[qesehmk]

Teddy
so do we see ROW EB2 or Overall eB1 surge? At least till July end it was not there.


Q / Nishant, Guys there is another angle to this, spillover to EB2 I/C should only happen if there are insufficient number of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases. The inventory shows almost an unprecedented backlog of both EB2 ROW and EB1 so this could definitely be a way to show good results within the approvable inventory, cases of EB2 I/C beyond 15th Apr are not approvable. Iam sure a lot of management reporting must be happening within USCIS / DOS and after Jul this point must have caught their attention. Overall I feel this is an indicator that there will be conservative movement in September, BTM is more likely if the dates can come closer to 15th Aug at the first place or there is a danger of SOFAD falling down, I don't think that’s the case. Iam sure spec can give us the legal angle, the concern here is that the further we are away from 15-AUG-2007 by the Sep VB greater will be the delay in BTM or any kind of intake.

[Spectator]

i m thinking the antics are to make a case for btm. SPEC may have some insight how law ties their hands for moving dates and how such kind of artificial stalling might allow them to move datesQ,

I don't think you need any special insight from me on this.

DOS have to set the Cut Off Dates for the September VB shortly.

The only real thing of any concern now is that visas are not wasted.

If there appear to be low approvals, DOS might justifiably claim that they had to move the EB2-IC COD because there was a danger that visas would be wasted. % wise it would fill the shortfall.

I'm not entirely convinced all the possible July cases have been approved yet.

I speculated quite a while ago that RFEs could be used strategically to reduce apparent demand to engineer an outcome. I was only being semi-serious.

After the VB is published, if demand "miraculously" increases, then it is too late to alter the COD movement.

It probably is a little early to form an opinion. By the time it becomes possible, the VB will be published anyway.

I love a good conspiracy theory!

[qesehmk]

Exactly my thoughts !! And hence the conspiracy theory! Otherwise how do we justify being a Guru ;)


Q,
...
After the VB is published, if demand "miraculously" increases, then it is too late to alter the COD movement.

[nishant2200]

I still think if the will is strong, based on current climate of politics and attitudes towards immigration, and favor of policymakers, you just have to say same reasons we are saying, namely, projection of Spillover, time being taken to adjudicate 485s, and hence need of an inventory.

As we all know, the current political and economic climate is polarizing on this and in fact may be hostile. That is why the conspiracies and drama.

Isn't the NVC premise to send invoices based on just possibility of dates being current in the near future. So what's the big deal in USCIS 485.

[cbpds1]

I do not think the citizens are aware of EB Immigration or monthly visa bulletin for that matter, a simple survey points that most of the citizens are not even aware of the debt crisis recently.

I do not think there is any political pressure in terms of 485 although there is persistent pressure on H1B category


I still think if the will is strong, based on current climate of politics and attitudes towards immigration, and favor of policymakers, you just have to say same reasons we are saying, namely, projection of Spillover, time being taken to adjudicate 485s, and hence need of an inventory.

As we all know, the current political and economic climate is polarizing on this and in fact may be hostile. That is why the conspiracies and drama.

Isn't the NVC premise to send invoices based on just possibility of dates being current in the near future. So what's the big deal in USCIS 485.

[leo07]

Processing stats & times are off CIS data, they look accurate. Some of the predictive analysis using the probabilistic distribution looks interesting, could close-in with more data. That site IMO, is poorly maintained and rarely updated. Idea and direction is good, but need more man-hours to get it right. Not very reliable as it stands.

This site lists I-140 and I-485 approval rate on yearly basis. How authentic is this information? Did people already discuss this on this forum?

http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html

[nishant2200]

Processing stats & times are off CIS data, they look accurate. Some of the predictive analysis using the probabilistic distribution looks interesting, could close-in with more data. That site IMO, is poorly maintained and rarely updated. Idea and direction is good, but need more man-hours to get it right. Not very reliable as it stands.

Leo, you are in DC. can you sniff something in the air or read the mind of CO who might be nearby.

[leo07]

You know I definitely would, if my noses permit me, with all these tree-pollen allergies :)

Leo, you are in DC. can you sniff something in the air or read the mind of CO who might be nearby.

[mesan123]

Hi All Guru's

Will the S&P downgrading U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ affect our Sep bulletins anyway???

[qesehmk]

Teddy
I checked out overall approvals. They just are not there. Only 17 total cases approved across all categories ... all countries in Aug.

So something is stalled. Not sure what it is. But now that Spec has talked about conspiray theory ;) let me say that yes ... i do smell something that could result in some sort of BTM. We will see ... only a matter of 4-5 days from now.


Q / Nishant, Guys there is another angle to this, spillover to EB2 I/C should only happen if there are insufficient number of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases. The inventory shows almost an unprecedented backlog of both EB2 ROW and EB1 so this could definitely be a way to show good results within the approvable inventory, cases of EB2 I/C beyond 15th Apr are not approvable. Iam sure a lot of management reporting must be happening within USCIS / DOS and after Jul this point must have caught their attention. Overall I feel this is an indicator that there will be conservative movement in September, BTM is more likely if the dates can come closer to 15th Aug at the first place or there is a danger of SOFAD falling down, I don't think that’s the case. Iam sure spec can give us the legal angle, the concern here is that the further we are away from 15-AUG-2007 by the Sep VB greater will be the delay in BTM or any kind of intake.


Teddy
so do we see ROW EB2 or Overall eB1 surge? At least till July end it was not there.

[nishant2200]

Hi All Guru's

Will the S&P downgrading U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+ affect our Sep bulletins anyway???

Not this bulletin. In long run, stuff like this may scare EB5 n the new EB2-entrepreneur, as well as cautious hiring by US companies with global investors may lead to less EB2ROW, EB1, porting. And hence more SOFAD n EB2 IC grab it.

[Spectator]

Teddy
so do we see ROW EB2 or Overall eB1 surge? At least till July end it was not there.Q,

I suppose it depends what you call a surge, or whether a surge is necessary.

EB2-ROW (No MP) was at around 21k by the end of July, so another 2k a month would be 25k for the year, yielding only 4k towards spillover. The average over the last 5 months is 2.3k per month.

EB1 was approaching 22k by the end of July, so another 2k per month would be 26k for the year, yielding only 14k towards spillover. Given there were zero ROW EB1 approvals in July, there must be a chance of an upswing in those numbers. The average over the last 5 months is 2.8k per month.

[Sandeep2011]

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/the-eb5-program-create-american-jobs-get-a-green-card-08042011.html?chan=magazine+small_business+channel _focus+on+enterprise

Slightly off topic but help us kill some time before Sept VB.

Nice article on how EB5 is perceived by biz community. Since inception of EB5 program, US has been able to attract 1.5 Bn of investment and create 31000 jobs using this visa category.

[pch053]

If at all there is any BTM, then will April 15, i.e. the PDs that current in Aug be considered as the SFM date? The reason I am bit unsure on how things will pan out if there is any BTM is how USCIS will decide on the dates that will get I485 approval in the month of Sep. As an example, lets say that USCIS has enough visas to clear until 15th June and the PDs move to Jan'08, what are the range of PDs that will get approval in Sep'11. Will it be in any random order for I485s submitted until Aug'07 (as PDs after June 15 will also be current) until the visas are exhausted? Or will there be very few approvals with the sole purpose of the forward movement being to build the buffer of new applications?

[qesehmk]

Spec what you say would've been true ONLY IF DoS would've actually allocated all those numbers. As of now hardly 17K have been allocated to EB2IC. So almost another 12-17K to go.

If Teddy's fears were to turn true, then we not only wouldn't see movement in Sep bulletin. But also would see retrogression in subsequent bulletins.

What I have suggested is - I would buy into those fears if I see surge in EB1 and EB2ROW approvals. I wouldn't be worried about 1-2 K approvals (ie. equivalent in trackitt), because 1-2K would only affect Sep movement. But if the surge is real surge as in 8-10K approvals then EB2IC dates must retrogress.

Since as of now we don't see any surge, since we see EB2IC approvals very thin, since there is a large visas available and since Sep bulletin is so close - naturally I am wondering if this is yet another ploy to do a calculated BTM.

We will know soon :) BTM or not, as of now I really don't see any signs of retrogression. So when I responded to Teddy, that's what I had on my mind. Hope its clear now.


Q,

I suppose it depends what you call a surge, or whether a surge is necessary.

EB2-ROW (No MP) was at around 21k by the end of July, so another 2k a month would be 25k for the year, yielding only 4k towards spillover. The average over the last 5 months is 2.3k per month.

EB1 was approaching 22k by the end of July, so another 2k per month would be 26k for the year, yielding only 14k towards spillover. Given there were zero ROW EB1 approvals in July, there must be a chance of an upswing in those numbers. The average over the last 5 months is 2.8k per month.

[veni001]

PERM applications proced in April'11-May'11
Oct'10-May'11 Receipts = ~45K
FY2011(Q1+Q2) approvals = 7.1K (only cases filed in FY2011)
FY2011(Q1+Q2) Denials = 0.4K (only cases filed in FY2011)

DOL June'11 PERM document (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf)shows both audits and review dates are in FY2011, which means 73% of the 22,000 pending PERM should be from FY2011 only.
Since FY2009 saw the bottom, most of the appeals (24%) should also from FY 2011.

Let's take 85% of the pending PERM cases (=~19K) are from FY2011.
PERM processed in April'11-May'11 = 45K-7.1K-0.4k-19K = 18.5K
From FY2011(Q1+Q2) PERM data Approval to Denial ratio is 81:19

April'11-May'11 PERM approvals = 15K



Teddy
I checked out overall approvals. They just are not there. Only 17 total cases approved across all categories ... all countries in Aug.

So something is stalled. Not sure what it is. But now that Spec has talked about conspiray theory ;) let me say that yes ... i do smell something that could result in some sort of BTM. We will see ... only a matter of 4-5 days from now.

Q,Spec,Teddy,
Here is my take on this...

Based on trackitt update history most of first week approvals are updated after the week-end!

Let's assume the reporting remain low .... based on our calculations the chances of numbers being exhausted by now is very less...

DOL fact-sheet (June update) provides about 15K PERM approvals in the months of April and May...

Historically ROWMP is averaging about 55-60% PERM approvals but for FY2011(Q1+Q2) it is about 40% .

If we take 50% of April-May PERM approvals as ROWMP and EB2:EB3 ratio as 60:40 then this would potentially bring 4K -140 applications, considering two month lag between PERM approval and i140 receipt all these should be in the pipeline by now.

In this case we should at least see increased(proportionate on trackitt) ROWMP approvals, if ROWMP PERMs are still low in April-May and assume most of approvals are IC and potentially porting then we should see the same result on IC approvals....

Based on the July EB1-140 statistics, there may not be very many documentarily qualified EB1's left....

Le't hope there is some +ve smell here?

[qesehmk]

PCH, the movement so far is SFM. The reason being we are seeing EB1 and EB2 ROW consuming less visas and the EB2IC movement corresponds well to the underage in EB1 EB2ROW consumption.


If at all there is any BTM, then will April 15, i.e. the PDs that current in Aug be considered as the SFM date? The reason I am bit unsure on how things will pan out if there is any BTM is how USCIS will decide on the dates that will get I485 approval in the month of Sep. As an example, lets say that USCIS has enough visas to clear until 15th June and the PDs move to Jan'08, what are the range of PDs that will get approval in Sep'11. Will it be in any random order for I485s submitted until Aug'07 (as PDs after June 15 will also be current) until the visas are exhausted? Or will there be very few approvals with the sole purpose of the forward movement being to build the buffer of new applications?

[Spectator]

Spec what you say would've been true ONLY IF DoS would've actually allocated all those numbers. As of now hardly 17K have been allocated to EB2IC. So almost another 12-17K to go.

If Teddy's fears were to turn true, then we not only wouldn't see movement in Sep bulletin. But also would see retrogression in subsequent bulletins.

What I have suggested is - I would buy into those fears if I see surge in EB1 and EB2ROW approvals. I wouldn't be worried about 1-2 K approvals (ie. equivalent in trackitt), because 1-2K would only affect Sep movement. But if the surge is real surge as in 8-10K approvals then EB2IC dates must retrogress.

Since as of now we don't see any surge, since we see EB2IC approvals very thin, since there is a large visas available and since Sep bulletin is so close - naturally I am wondering if this is yet another ploy to do a calculated BTM.

We will know soon :) BTM or not, as of now I really don't see any signs of retrogression. So when I responded to Teddy, that's what I had on my mind. Hope its clear now.Q,

I can't agree that EB2-ROW are consuming less visas - they are on track to consume more visas this year than last year, if they continue at their present rate.

EB2-I appears to have consumed anywhere between 14k and 20k visas by the end of July (compared to the c. 16k + porting + PWMB expected), depending how you calculate it. EB2-C consumption is impossible to determine. Movement to the July bulletin would give a potential figure of 6.9k + PWMB. If the actuals approvals from the July movement haven't yet been completed, there is plenty of time to finish them.

Lets call that 28k. August movement gives a further usage of c. 2.5k bringing the total usage to 30.5k.

SOFAD might be 34.5k, leaving 4k for September. It could be less but it doesn't look like it will be much more. Even a modest increase in other approvals over two months can wipe that out.

I can't really see where your 12-17k still to go comes from, because far more than 17k have surely been allocated to EB2-IC already, both theoretically and in practice.

I am saying that I think Teddy's caution is well founded and is a possibility.

[nishant2200]

I think our fate is more or less sealed by now. CO knows what he going to do.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Sorry if I conveyed ROW EB2 is consuming less visa. Not at all. EB2ROW is on track to consume more visas than last year. We are in synch.

I do not understand the basis behind you assertion - "Far more than 17K have been assigned". Why do you think so? The reason I think 16K is consumed is based on YTD trackitt approvals and assuming ratio of actuals to approvals at the same level as prior year for EB2IC.

Now exactly because so far only 16K have been assigned to EB2IC, the concern would be that the remaining of 34.5K SOFAD also should be applied to EB2IC. But if what Teddy said is true, then that Jeopardizes that. What he says is a possibility but right now the trend of EB1 EB2ROW consumption doesnt support that possibility.

If EB1 and EB2ROW cruise control at YTD average rate then there is absolutely no need to worry. And as I said, the data doesn't show that they are moving at a faster rate at all.



Q,

I can't agree that EB2-ROW are consuming less visas - they are on track to consume more visas this year than last year, if they continue at their present rate.

EB2-I appears to have consumed anywhere between 14k and 20k visas by the end of July (compared to the c. 16k + porting + PWMB expected), depending how you calculate it. EB2-C consumption is impossible to determine. Movement to the July bulletin would give a potential figure of 6.9k + PWMB. If the actuals approvals from the July movement haven't yet been completed, there is plenty of time to finish them.

Lets call that 28k. August movement gives a further usage of c. 2.5k bringing the total usage to 30.5k.

SOFAD might be 34.5k, leaving 4k for September. It could be less but it doesn't look like it will be much more. Even a modest increase in other approvals over two months can wipe that out.

I can't really see where your 12-17k still to go comes from, because far more than 17k have surely been allocated to EB2-IC already, both theoretically and in practice.

I am saying that I think Teddy's caution is well founded and is a possibility.

[ifaith]

Hi
My brother who missed the boat in July 2007 got his card today
Time Line
Priority Date Aug 2006, I140 Approved
Changed jobs in May 2007 and hence missed the July 2007.
The New labour was stuck in audit for 2 years
Got New I140 approved in 2010
The Date became current on June 1st
Filed The papers on June 8th
June 20th got the receipt notice
July 20th got the Finger Printing done
Aug 5th got the confirmation of 485 approval and cards together.

Best of luck everyone, hang in there, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

[nishant2200]

Congrats. Grab a big gift this upcoming rakshabandhan.

Guys, this is lightning fast. As I and pch053 said earlier, seen 2 month 485 approvals.


Hi
My brother who missed the boat in July 2007 got his card today
Time Line
Priority Date Aug 2006, I140 Approved
Changed jobs in May 2007 and hence missed the July 2007.
The New labour was stuck in audit for 2 years
Got New I140 approved in 2010
The Date became current on June 1st
Filed The papers on June 8th
June 20th got the receipt notice
July 20th got the Finger Printing done
Aug 5th got the confirmation of 485 approval and cards together.

Best of luck everyone, hang in there, there is light at the end of the tunnel.

[Spectator]

Spec

Sorry if I conveyed ROW EB2 is consuming less visa. Not at all. EB2ROW is on track to consume more visas than last year. We are in synch.

I do not understand the basis behind you assertion - "Far more than 17K have been assigned". Why do you think so? The reason I think 16K is consumed is based on YTD trackitt approvals and assuming ratio of actuals to approvals at the same level as prior year for EB2IC.

Now exactly because so far only 16K have been assigned to EB2IC, the concern would be that the remaining of 34.5K SOFAD also should be applied to EB2IC. But if what Teddy said is true, then that Jeopardizes that. What he says is a possibility but right now the trend of EB1 EB2ROW consumption doesnt support that possibility.

If EB1 and EB2ROW cruise control at YTD average rate then there is absolutely no need to worry. And as I said, the data doesn't show that they are moving at a faster rate at all.Q,

We don't seem to disagree, other than where the figures might go.

The figures for visas assigned to EB2-I come from my monthly breakdowns http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010

An explanation of how Cumulative, Cumulative 2 and Cumulative 3 are derived from Trackitt data is explained in the post.

Even if there are still approvals from July to be made (I agree there might be), with only 2.5k from August movement itself, there is plenty of resource to catch up in the early part of August.

EB2-C has to be added to this. Unfortunately, Trackitt does not give good data for EB2-C approvals. Either way, it is still more than 17k IMHO.

I think it can go either way - it is quite finely balanced. Ultimately, it is probably a policy decision.

Have a good weekend.

[mesan123]

Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for fulltime company.

[qesehmk]

Spec

I think there is a difference in what we are saying. I think you dont recognize that a very very large % of EB2IC cases are current-yet-unapproved (CYU). If you use trackitt data, then the % is almost 40%. Even if you say people dont update approvals immediately the % remains at least 25%. These CYU cases could get hurt if we see EB1 and EB2ROW 485-approval-surge.

While I do agree EB2IC approvals haven't come in August, I would be concerned for EB2IC CYU cases if we see more than YTD average approvals in EB1 and EB2ROW. That would mean YTD EB2IC movement may not be SFM and could be retrogressed.

I think you are looking at Aug and Sep and trying to speculcate how much a surge can hurt or not hurt. And I am looking in the prior months and thinking that almost 40% CYU cases are yet to approved and so if the surge is more then there is a tremendous potential for damage. Fortunately I just don't see the EB1 EB2ROW approvals that could hurt CYU cases for EB2IC.

I think the argument is going in circles. May be just try to find out yourself what % of EB2IC cases are CYU. That will immediately throw a light on what I am trying to convey.

p.s. - The reason I spent so much time on this discussion is because, I am not such a big believer in randomness when it comes to immigration approvals. At an individual level it may exists. But on large scale things need to move in a reasonable predictable way and when that doesn't happen as in August approvals (i..e this month) it smells fishy!


Q,

We don't seem to disagree, other than where the figures might go.

The figures for visas assigned to EB2-I come from my monthly breakdowns http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010

An explanation of how Cumulative, Cumulative 2 and Cumulative 3 are derived from Trackitt data is explained in the post.

Even if there are still approvals from July to be made (I agree there might be), with only 2.5k from August movement itself, there is plenty of resource to catch up in the early part of August.

EB2-C has to be added to this. Unfortunately, Trackitt does not give good data for EB2-C approvals. Either way, it is still more than 17k IMHO.

I think it can go either way - it is quite finely balanced. Ultimately, it is probably a policy decision.

Have a good weekend.

[qesehmk]

My own experience has been that first time I extended they gave 1 year. Next they gave 3 years. My 485 was already filed when I the first extension was required. May be they thought it would be approved within 1 yr. But I would hope you get 3 yrs if you haven't yet filed.


Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for fulltime company.

[mesan123]

Oh ok.Thank you for the reply. I am applying next week for my extension. just thought if i get 3 years would be good, as i am going to india, so that i can visa stamped for 3 years...listening to that visa stamping problem in india, thought 3 years extension would give me peace of mind for 3 years if i get my stamping this year :)




My own experience has been that first time I extended they gave 1 year. Next they gave 3 years. My 485 was already filed when I the first extension was required. May be they thought it would be approved within 1 yr. But I would hope you get 3 yrs if you haven't yet filed.

[Sandeep2011]

3 years, I was in the same situation as you last year.

QUOTE=mesan123;6582]Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for fulltime company.[/QUOTE]

[vizcard]

Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for full-time company.

You are eligible for a 3-yr extension based on an approved I-140. I had mine extended by 3 yrs. If you don't then there are extenuating circumstances (like q's). It could also be a stupid money-making racket where you not only have to apply twice for the 797, but also pay the visa fee twice to get it stamped...although i doubt this is the case.

[haripathhi]

Yes, you could use your approved I140 for your 3-yr extension. Since you are employed full time for a company, the chances of extending your H1-B visa for
another 3 years are pretty good. Good Luck!


Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for fulltime company.

[mesan123]

Thank you for replies guys...hope i will get my 3 years extension ... :)

Yes, you could use your approved I140 for your 3-yr extension. Since you are employed full time for a company, the chances of extending your H1-B visa for
another 3 years are pretty good. Good Luck!


You are eligible for a 3-yr extension based on an approved I-140. I had mine extended by 3 yrs. If you don't then there are extenuating circumstances (like q's). It could also be a stupid money-making racket where you not only have to apply twice for the 797, but also pay the visa fee twice to get it stamped...although i doubt this is the case.


3 years, I was in the same situation as you last year.

QUOTE=mesan123;6582]Hi All,

This question is realted to H1b extension..i am on my 5th year and extending my H1b, i have 13 months left in 6 year H1b time, i have approved 140, when i extend now, will i get 3 year extension or 1 year extension...Can i use my 140 for 3 year extension??
i am working for fulltime company.[/QUOTE]

[nishant2200]

Thank you for replies guys...hope i will get my 3 years extension ... :)






I got 3 years too. Just approved 140 receipt number lawyer mentioned in the form in some box. If you want more detail I can look up. I have copies of everything.

[nishant2200]

I was trolling through the net, and in July 2007, the explanation given by DOS for making current was:

"EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILITY DURING THE COMING MONTHS

All Employment Preference categories except for Third “Other Workers” have been made “Current” for July. This has been done in an effort to generate increased demand by Citizenship and Immigration Services (CIS) for adjustment of status cases, and to maximize number use under the annual numerical limit. However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008. "

Just a revisit on perspective, as to how a slight gamesmanship of showing chances of number waste under annual limit may lead to this kind of step.

[mesan123]

Thank you nishant, can you look up and message me(that would be great)... Thank you once again for your help :)



I got 3 years too. Just approved 140 receipt number lawyer mentioned in the form in some box. If you want more detail I can look up. I have copies of everything.

[Sandeep2011]

Mesan

With an approved I140 , You are eligible for 3 years of H1 extension beyond 6 years.

But getting 3 years extension is at the discretion of the officer handling your case. He/She might extend your status for 1 or 2 or 3 years truly based upon "nothing"

Any objections to my thought ?

I agree, there is no clear logic based on which consulates determine duration of your visa; at least I am not aware of any. In my case, I went to Delhi consulate and the consulate officer just asked me where am I in my GC process and he granted me a three year extension. Please check your passport expiration date though, make sure that you have at least more than a year left before your passport expires.

[Sandeep2011]

Folks, I just heard from one of my Chinese colleague that he received his 485 approval email yesterday. His PD was 03/12/07 and applied for his 485 when the dates became current for him this year.

[shaumack]

Folks, I just heard from one of my Chinese colleague that he received his 485 approval email yesterday. His PD was 03/12/07 and applied for his 485 when the dates became current for him this year.

This does not sound right. If he is EB2 then he must be current in August bulletin. Even if he applied on 01 August, there is no way he can approved in 4 days. Am I missing anything?

[Spectator]

Spec

I think there is a difference in what we are saying. I think you dont recognize that a very very large % of EB2IC cases are current-yet-unapproved (CYU). If you use trackitt data, then the % is almost 40%. Even if you say people dont update approvals immediately the % remains at least 25%. These CYU cases could get hurt if we see EB1 and EB2ROW 485-approval-surge.

While I do agree EB2IC approvals haven't come in August, I would be concerned for EB2IC CYU cases if we see more than YTD average approvals in EB1 and EB2ROW. That would mean YTD EB2IC movement may not be SFM and could be retrogressed.

I think you are looking at Aug and Sep and trying to speculcate how much a surge can hurt or not hurt. And I am looking in the prior months and thinking that almost 40% CYU cases are yet to approved and so if the surge is more then there is a tremendous potential for damage. Fortunately I just don't see the EB1 EB2ROW approvals that could hurt CYU cases for EB2IC.

I think the argument is going in circles. May be just try to find out yourself what % of EB2IC cases are CYU. That will immediately throw a light on what I am trying to convey.

p.s. - The reason I spent so much time on this discussion is because, I am not such a big believer in randomness when it comes to immigration approvals. At an individual level it may exists. But on large scale things need to move in a reasonable predictable way and when that doesn't happen as in August approvals (i..e this month) it smells fishy!Q,

I keep saying that I don't think all the July approvals on Trackitt are in yet.

I agree, for all possible cases, the figure is around 40% still to come for the July VB movement.

Teddy has previously calculated that 20% of cases never get updated, so really there are only 20% missing at the moment.

It will take about 2 weeks for those to trickle in on Trackitt. Only then can we say if the figure is low. Even then, USCIS are probably still approving some July VB Current cases in August, because the later the PD made Current in the July VB, the more that have yet to be shown as approved.

The more that are unapproved, the better chance of BTM.

I agree that if that happens and later PD cases then get approved, that visas may run out before some of the earlier PDs get approval. Alternatively, as you say, if there is a big surge in EB1/EB2-ROW approvals, then the numbers available can disappear. In any scenario, there are enough visas for EB2-IC for the movement through the August VB COD, as long as later EB2-IC cases are not approved ahead of them.

Unfortunately, that has always been the case, since USCIS have never been able to follow FIFO very well.

I think we just have a different perspective on what it means and how much the gap can be closed.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Whatever that % is - it will be a common factor across all years. So when we do YoY comparison that information doesn't matter. So you can't take that X% out of the 40%. What you can however take out is the slow trickle of prior month cases. I would argue that majority of the trickle will be completed in a matter of 2 weeks. Its already 1 week. And when you look at full year numbers, the rest of trickle wouldn't lower the 40% to any significant %.

Anyway thats my last word on this online. Offline we can chat.



Q,

Teddy has previously calculated that 20% of cases never get updated, so really there are only 20% missing at the moment.

[veni001]

Q,

Teddy has previously calculated that 20% of cases never get updated, so really there are only 20% missing at the moment.


Spec

Whatever that % is - it will be a common factor across all years. So when we do YoY comparison that information doesn't matter.

Spec/Q,
Assuming most of the EB2I with PD before 08MAR2007 (~10k movement, July bulletin cut-off) received approvals by now then 340 represents 10K (17/day,85/week)
At this rate for August (~3k movement) we should be expecting ~4/day(or 22/week) EB2I approvals reported on trackitt? Am I correct?

[Jitesh]

How much spillover is expected for Sep 11 Visa Bulletin.
From 3rd post on 1st page,8,159 is needed for dates to move to Aug -07.

[Sandeep2011]

This does not sound right. If he is EB2 then he must be current in August bulletin. Even if he applied on 01 August, there is no way he can approved in 4 days. Am I missing anything?

My bad, the PD for him is 2/12 and not 3/12. Even in that case, we are talking about 5 weeks for approval. I couldn't believe it either that is why I thought of sharing it with forum. Please let me know if there is anything else that i should be asking him, which will give us more insight.

[Spectator]

Spec/Q,
Assuming most of the EB2I with PD before 08MAR2007 (~10k movement, July bulletin cut-off) received approvals by now then 340 represents 10K (17/day,85/week)
At this rate for August (~3k movement) we should be expecting ~4/day(or 22/week) EB2I approvals reported on trackitt? Am I correct?For the period that is Current because of the August VB (March 8 to April 14 2007), there are only 77 primary applicant cases for EB2-I on Trackitt currently.

On top of that, we should also see further approvals from the period made Current by the July VB and any further porting cases.

[nishant2200]

Trackitt as of Saturday end.

EB1A - 0
EB1B - 2
EB1C - 3 (2 from India, one guy done in 107 days...)

EB2 Total : 18
EB2 I - 10, EB2 I NIW - 1
EB2 C - 2
EB2 ROW - 4, EB2 ROW NIW - 1 (out of the EB2 ROW, two from UAE, Bahrain, but Indian nationality, doesn't matter in our analysis, just an observation which Teddy will relate to in my offline discussions with him)

[superdesi2100]

Of 10 EB2 India approval on Trackitt, here are the priority dates -

01/13/2004 (porting?)
03/18/2004 (porting?)
12/28/2004 (porting?)
07/10/2006 (June Bulletin)
11/02/2006 (July Bulletin)
11/28/2006 (July Bulletin)
03/09/2007 (August Bulletin)
03/14/2007 (August Bulletin)
03/19/2007 (August Bulletin)
04/08/2007 (August Bulletin)

Only 4 August approval for EB2 India so far.

[nishant2200]

Guys, I have an observation. Porters use trackitt more than non porters sample size proportion wise. Agree?

[qesehmk]

Veni

Spec is right. So the total picture is:

for EB2I - ~900 approved YTD. ~800 pending.
of which ~300 are prior to Apr 2006 so one can easily discard them.
But still ~500 are pending as of today. That is a very significant number. And we should be seeing at least 15-20 approvals per day ... just to clear backlog till where the dates are today. If the dates move and THEY WILL move, we should be seeing close to 20 approvals.

My guess is approvals will pick up speed later part of this week AFTER bulletin is published.


Spec/Q,
Assuming most of the EB2I with PD before 08MAR2007 (~10k movement, July bulletin cut-off) received approvals by now then 340 represents 10K (17/day,85/week)
At this rate for August (~3k movement) we should be expecting ~4/day(or 22/week) EB2I approvals reported on trackitt? Am I correct?



How much spillover is expected for Sep 11 Visa Bulletin.
From 3rd post on 1st page,8,159 is needed for dates to move to Aug -07.
Jitesh - welcome. So far 17K applied. 17K more to go. 10K will be utilized to clear through Apr 15 i.e. the date made current in last bulletin. 7K will be utilized to advance date till first week of July. This is educated guess... there is of course no guarantee ;)

[veni001]

For the period that is Current because of the August VB (March 8 to April 14 2007), there are only 77 primary applicant cases for EB2-I on Trackitt currently.

On top of that, we should also see further approvals from the period made Current by the July VB and any further porting cases.


Veni

Spec is right. So the total picture is:

for EB2I - ~900 approved YTD. ~800 pending.
of which ~300 are prior to Apr 2006 so one can easily discard them.
But still ~500 are pending as of today. That is a very significant number. And we should be seeing at least 15-20 approvals per day ... just to clear backlog till where the dates are today. If the dates move and THEY WILL move, we should be seeing close to 20 approvals.

My guess is approvals will pick up speed later part of this week AFTER bulletin is published.

Spec/Q,
I have to admit that i am not good at trackitt based predictions.

Looking at EBI 01JUL2006 to 15OCT2006 (June'11 VB) & 15OCT2006 to 08MAY2007 (July'11 VB), 485 inventory shows a ratio of 1:1.4
Comparing trackitt approvals for June'11 & July'11 show 1:1.3. When I apply teddy's 20% factor to these, i thought the numbers are very close!

I am hoping too, that the approvals (reported on trackitt) will pickup after this weekend, either way we will get a better picture by Friday when the demand data/bulletin is out.

[gchopeful123]

Eagerly awaiting any updates from "Source Baba" !!!

[nayekal]

Do we really need to have our I485 pending for more than 180 days to start using our EAD? What happens if we decide to leave the current job and go to a new one, before 180 days with pending I485 by using EAD? Is it illegal to use it or does it stop us from invoking AC21?

What happens to the pending I485 in case if I leave the company after applying before 180 days of pending status?

If we decide to join a new company with H1, then can spouse be able to retain the EAD?
After applying I485 and if I move to next company with H1, then if the 180 days pending period is over for I485, then will I be able to use EAD from that point of time.

[qesehmk]

nayekal pls see the answers (per my best knowledge) in blue

Do we really need to have our I485 pending for more than 180 days to start using our EAD? For the same employer - No. For a different employer Yes. What happens if we decide to leave the current job and go to a new one, before 180 days with pending I485 by using EAD? You are not protected by AC21 in that case. Which means if your employer withdraws I-140 then your 485 could be cancelled immediately. Is it illegal to use it or does it stop us from invoking AC21? The use of EAD itself shouldn't be illegal.

What happens to the pending I485 in case if I leave the company after applying before 180 days of pending status? If employer withdraws 140, 485 will be cancelled. If USCIS finds out you switched companies, they may cancel 485 since you don't have AC21 protection.

If we decide to join a new company with H1, then can spouse be able to retain the EAD? Yes as long as 485 is still in place.
After applying I485 and if I move to next company with H1, then if the 180 days pending period is over for I485, then will I be able to use EAD from that point of time. You need to read whether the 180 days condition is only on the period of ellapsed or period ellapsed with the GC sponsor. I think its the former but I am not sure.

[leo07]

like it :)

Eagerly awaiting any updates from "Source Baba" !!!

[Monica12]

like it :)
Cali baba ..Source baba.. Please arrive from India soon and grace us with your insights...:)

[nishant2200]

If no BTM, one more year :)

I still think it will be FY 2012 for BTM as they won't be able to give proper reason of demand vs visas vs danger of waste. It can be accomodated by SFM as we are as of yet far away from Aug 15 2007. if we had got even 5k FB, and were periliously close to July last bulletin, it cud have been the tipping point. So near yet so far.

Main aur meri tanhai
Aksar ye batein karte hain
Tum hoti to kaisa hota
tum hoti to aisa hota, tum hoti to waisa hota
Main aur meri tanhai ,aksar yeh baten karte hain

[mesan123]

Looks like we will have sep Bulletin before Source baba comes back....


Cali baba ..Source baba.. Please arrive from India soon and grace us with your insights...:)

[shivarajan]

If no BTM, one more year :)

I still think it will be FY 2012 for BTM as they won't be able to give proper reason of demand vs visas vs danger of waste. It can be accomodated by SFM as we are as of yet far away from Aug 15 2007. if we had got even 5k FB, and were periliously close to July last bulletin, it cud have been the tipping point. So near yet so far.

Main aur meri tanhai
Aksar ye batein karte hain
Tum hoti to kaisa hota
tum hoti to aisa hota, tum hoti to waisa hota
Main aur meri tanhai ,aksar yeh baten karte hain


"This wait has made so many people loose it"

[nishant2200]

shivarajan, I agree. But a positive is, when I get really obsessed about something, typically in life, that event has happened in near future and I have got what I wanted :)

On a serious note, I do really believe in what I said above. We are not close to the tipping point yet, and such a point can indeed be obtained by Q2 FY 2012, by which DOS/USCIS would have projections on demand and existing backlog estimate of EB1, EB2 ROW, and would be in a better place to make an educated BTM. A BTM right now would lead to chaos in terms of any FIFO and anyone from April 15th to August 2007 would get his GC mostly by luck of the draw, I do not think they can enforce FIFO very very strictly, also BTM would also mean CP cases in even later 2007 or even 2008 grabbing interviews. Also at the time when waste of visas is of utmost importance to prevent, USCIS would be burdened in issuing receipts, EADs, APs etc instead of adjudicating and assigning GCs fast.

If we were close to July in last bulletin itself, I would give BTM a big probability, but since we are so far, I am going to stick with FY 2012 for BTM. If situation was like 2007, when communication and transparency between DOS, USCIS, VO and the public was very less, we would have absolutely seen a BTM or C for everyone.

Please feel free to critic this, I know I am playing the unpopular tune here, but I want to be realistic. I will be the most happiest person if am proved wrong.

[ssvp22]

I know I am playing the unpopular tune here, but I want to be realistic. I will be the most happiest person if am proved wrong.

Its not unpopular. It is the fact. So, as we take the double dip of recession, hope we make it on the other side with GC in hand. Else, you always have Citizenship of your Country to content with :)

[nishant2200]

In my opinion, for upcoming bulletin:

SFM - Anywhere up until 1st August 2007
BTM - 1 January 2008 to April 15th 2008
UFM - 1st September 2007 to 1st November 2007


Nishant,

Can you pls give us an example of the following with current situation of COD?

SFM - Sustainable Forward Movement
BTM - Big Temporary Movement
UFM - Unsustainable Forward Movement

[leo07]

last week guys...hold your breath.

Nishanth, I agree with your perception of these terms.

I see EB1 140 approvals but not EB1 485, did any one calculate the time frame for Eb1: b/n 140 approval and 495 approval?

That could be key for the last month vb. ( same holds for Eb2 ROW)

[soggadu]

"This wait has made so many people loose it"

shiv bhai...nishant didnt loose it... he is our inspiration... no more words needed i guess...

[soggadu]

bro's and gals... some interesting takes on S&P downgrade...yes i know, it wud be moved to GD...until then have fun :-)...

"Yo momma so poor she raised her debt ceiling and the S&P STILL downgraded her."

"Until today I didn't even know America ran on batteries, never mind what size"

"They've changed the US from AAA to AA. All this time and they didn't realise they were using the wrong batteries."

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec what you say would've been true ONLY IF DoS would've actually allocated all those numbers. As of now hardly 17K have been allocated to EB2IC. So almost another 12-17K to go.

If Teddy's fears were to turn true, then we not only wouldn't see movement in Sep bulletin. But also would see retrogression in subsequent bulletins.

What I have suggested is - I would buy into those fears if I see surge in EB1 and EB2ROW approvals. I wouldn't be worried about 1-2 K approvals (ie. equivalent in trackitt), because 1-2K would only affect Sep movement. But if the surge is real surge as in 8-10K approvals then EB2IC dates must retrogress.

Since as of now we don't see any surge, since we see EB2IC approvals very thin, since there is a large visas available and since Sep bulletin is so close - naturally I am wondering if this is yet another ploy to do a calculated BTM.

We will know soon :) BTM or not, as of now I really don't see any signs of retrogression. So when I responded to Teddy, that's what I had on my mind. Hope its clear now.

Q I believe atleast 30K SOFAD has been allocated this is purely using the difference of demand data. The I/C regular cap is 5.5K, I believe that India alone contributes 6K of porting, assuming India's cap went just for porting this makes it 8.5K. May & June bulletins accounted for ~ 9K Allocation and Jul bulletin accounted for another 11.5K. So the total usage thus far is already 30K adding say 500 -1000 PWMB. For some reason I think people have been far less excited to maybe update their cases on Trackitt. My prediction for September has therefore always been conservative because I believe that maybe ~ 3K of SOFAD is left. Retrogression definitely is highly unlikely things is definitely not that bad. It is true that there are still people waiting from Jul but most of the cases are either complicated or in RFE. I see people are getting approvals quite fast after responding to RFE requirements.

The concern really is about the Aug approval trend, since the first week was a full working week the relative count of EB2-I approvals is 50% to all others, if you look at Jul the trend was a whitewash. This indicates that USCIS is struggling to close EB2-I cases in relative terms to other categories. Agreed less number of people are current however the trend does indicate a rise in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals. It needs further watching though. I believe there is huge pressure to approve atleast the cases of EB2 ROW and EB1 in the inventory considering that their I140 is approved, its a better report card for the agencies to approve these cases and not move the dates for EB1 I/C as dates after the PD are un-approvable, even by all the rules the spillover can only come by if EB2 ROW and EB1 cases are not there.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy
I checked out overall approvals. They just are not there. Only 17 total cases approved across all categories ... all countries in Aug.

So something is stalled. Not sure what it is. But now that Spec has talked about conspiray theory ;) let me say that yes ... i do smell something that could result in some sort of BTM. We will see ... only a matter of 4-5 days from now.

Q / Spec its really getting closer to the climax now. Till now EB2 ROW approvals on Trackitt have hovered around 90% of last year. I do feel that actuals are higher, Q you may also see that there is a pretty large number of un-updated cases for EB2 - I as well but not that many number of people are complaining. So EB2 ROW will definitely yield lesser SOFAD this year if we use a factor to boost he lower numbers. For some reason updating cases is not that popular anymore maybe its due to the increased clarity. However any skew or tilt that reduces the percentage of EB2 - I approvals to other categories diminishes the prospects of BTM.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec

I think there is a difference in what we are saying. I think you dont recognize that a very very large % of EB2IC cases are current-yet-unapproved (CYU). If you use trackitt data, then the % is almost 40%. Even if you say people dont update approvals immediately the % remains at least 25%. These CYU cases could get hurt if we see EB1 and EB2ROW 485-approval-surge.

While I do agree EB2IC approvals haven't come in August, I would be concerned for EB2IC CYU cases if we see more than YTD average approvals in EB1 and EB2ROW. That would mean YTD EB2IC movement may not be SFM and could be retrogressed.

I think you are looking at Aug and Sep and trying to speculcate how much a surge can hurt or not hurt. And I am looking in the prior months and thinking that almost 40% CYU cases are yet to approved and so if the surge is more then there is a tremendous potential for damage. Fortunately I just don't see the EB1 EB2ROW approvals that could hurt CYU cases for EB2IC.

I think the argument is going in circles. May be just try to find out yourself what % of EB2IC cases are CYU. That will immediately throw a light on what I am trying to convey.

p.s. - The reason I spent so much time on this discussion is because, I am not such a big believer in randomness when it comes to immigration approvals. At an individual level it may exists. But on large scale things need to move in a reasonable predictable way and when that doesn't happen as in August approvals (i..e this month) it smells fishy!

Q I fully agree with you that the larger picture is still the same. However its almost like emergency brakes were applied for the Aug bulletin after things just rocketed in July. So yes the overall trend is great however the Aug trend with the limited visibility is not that good. We would need more people to come forward to post their approvals this would boost things up. On another note we are all awaiting good news with regards your approval. I remember your quote from 2 years back that all backlog till Mar 2007 - Jul 2007 will be cleared by Sep 2011 it has worked so well.

[TeddyKoochu]

If no BTM, one more year :)

I still think it will be FY 2012 for BTM as they won't be able to give proper reason of demand vs visas vs danger of waste. It can be accomodated by SFM as we are as of yet far away from Aug 15 2007. if we had got even 5k FB, and were periliously close to July last bulletin, it cud have been the tipping point. So near yet so far.


Nishant I fully agree with you, coming as close as possible to the tipping point is almost an essential condition for BTM. However September still represents the best time for the agencies to effect BTM, it is not about giving GC's so no allocation rules will be broken but it will help them to build a good pipeline.

[leo07]

TeddyK,

I agree with the bold part. Trying to understand, what trend/parameters indicate rise in EB1 & EB2ROW in the recent months?

"trend does indicate a rise in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals"


Q I believe atleast 30K SOFAD has been allocated this is purely using the difference of demand data. The I/C regular cap is 5.5K, I believe that India alone contributes 6K of porting, assuming India's cap went just for porting this makes it 8.5K. May & June bulletins accounted for ~ 9K Allocation and Jul bulletin accounted for another 11.5K. So the total usage thus far is already 30K adding say 500 -1000 PWMB. For some reason I think people have been far less excited to maybe update their cases on Trackitt. My prediction for September has therefore always been conservative because I believe that maybe ~ 3K of SOFAD is left. Retrogression definitely is highly unlikely things is definitely not that bad. It is true that there are still people waiting from Jul but most of the cases are either complicated or in RFE. I see people are getting approvals quite fast after responding to RFE requirements.

The concern really is about the Aug approval trend, since the first week was a full working week the relative count of EB2-I approvals is 50% to all others, if you look at Jul the trend was a whitewash. This indicates that USCIS is struggling to close EB2-I cases in relative terms to other categories. Agreed less number of people are current however the trend does indicate a rise in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals. It needs further watching though. I believe there is huge pressure to approve atleast the cases of EB2 ROW and EB1 in the inventory considering that their I140 is approved, its a better report card for the agencies to approve these cases and not move the dates for EB1 I/C as dates after the PD are un-approvable, even by all the rules the spillover can only come by if EB2 ROW and EB1 cases are not there.

[leo07]

Like the bold much :)

bro's and gals... some interesting takes on S&P downgrade...yes i know, it wud be moved to GD...until then have fun :-)...

"Yo momma so poor she raised her debt ceiling and the S&P STILL downgraded her."

"Until today I didn't even know America ran on batteries, never mind what size"

"They've changed the US from AAA to AA. All this time and they didn't realise they were using the wrong batteries."

[TeddyKoochu]

TeddyK,

I agree with the bold part. Trying to understand, what trend/parameters indicate rise in EB1 & EB2ROW in the recent months?

"trend does indicate a rise in EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals"

Thanks, USCIS - DOS kind of applied the emergency brakes in Aug. Till Aug the trends were holding quite well. Now if we look at the limited Trackitt approvals in Aug, EB2 I just represents 50%. Normally this ratio would have been 80-85%. The numbers are small so this might skew up the numbers but it seems to be fairly consistent with the direction of the Aug VB.
EB1 - C – 3, EB1 - B – 1, EB2 ROW – 2, EB2 - I – 7, EB3 - I - 1

[leo07]

Thanks for the explanation. I see the discrepancy you are referring now. I agree with you. Just laying out an alternate thought as well: Approvals might be the effect of not-so-much-movement of EB2I in August and not the actual cause?

Comparing EB1 and EB2ROW numbers for last 7 months--as %change from previous month might give a different picture.


Thanks, USCIS - DOS kind of applied the emergency brakes in Aug. Till Aug the trends were holding quite well. Now if we look at the limited Trackitt approvals in Aug, EB2 I just represents 50%. Normally this ratio would have been 80-85%. The numbers are small so this might skew up the numbers but it seems to be fairly consistent with the direction of the Aug VB.
EB1 - C – 3, EB1 - B – 1, EB2 ROW – 2, EB2 - I – 7, EB3 - I - 1

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks for the explanation. I see the discrepancy you are referring now. I agree with you. Just laying out an alternate thought as well: Approvals might be the effect of not-so-much-movement of EB2I in August and not the actual cause?

Comparing EB1 and EB2ROW numbers for last 7 months--as %change from previous month might give a different picture.

Totally agree with you, I also expressed similar thoughts in post # 5866 in my response to Q. Million dollar question is that have we already reaped and enjoyed those benefits and in what proportion. Really the VB is going to give the answer; this will certainly be a very important week for all of us. Good luck to everyone.

[aguy007]

It has been a while since i thought about this stuff, since the dates were so far off.

A question - I have an approved I140 (august 2009), waiting for I485 to become current. If I understand it correctly, I cannot file for I485 right now. Will USCIS contact me when dates for I485 are current or when I am eligible to file I485? Or is it that I have to monitor the dates and have to file only when I am sure that the dates are current? How does this work?

I will appreciate any guidance on this.

[aary09]

Bro, Funny to compare with batteries, at least batteries are better than these ratings, INSIDE JOB movie gives a whole picture of these rating agencies & their ratings





wi
bro's and gals... some interesting takes on S&P downgrade...yes i know, it wud be moved to GD...until then have fun :-)...

"Yo momma so poor she raised her debt ceiling and the S&P STILL downgraded her."

"Until today I didn't even know America ran on batteries, never mind what size"

"They've changed the US from AAA to AA. All this time and they didn't realise they were using the wrong batteries."

[leo07]

Onus is on you to file for Adjustment of Status. In fact, that's when the application becomes yours, until then it's your employer's petition. Any communication will ONLY be with your employer uptil 485 stage. Once you file for AOS, CIS starts communicating with you directly.

It has been a while since i thought about this stuff, since the dates were so far off.

A question - I have an approved I140 (august 2009), waiting for I485 to become current. If I understand it correctly, I cannot file for I485 right now. Will USCIS contact me when dates for I485 are current or when I am eligible to file I485? Or is it that I have to monitor the dates and have to file only when I am sure that the dates are current? How does this work?

I will appreciate any guidance on this.

[nishant2200]

Department of State issues the cut off dates.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/ivstats/ivstats_4581.html

Familiarize yourself with the above two links and their reaches. Operation of the Numerical Control Process will tell you how around the 8th of each month, a visa bulletin is issued, that contains the cut off dates.

You want to check each month, as you never know. Although realistically, you are in for a long haul. As and when you familiarize yourself with the process, you will know which months to lay low, and which months to be on the lookout for.

You have to do this. No one, is going to inform you when you are eligible.


It has been a while since i thought about this stuff, since the dates were so far off.

A question - I have an approved I140 (august 2009), waiting for I485 to become current. If I understand it correctly, I cannot file for I485 right now. Will USCIS contact me when dates for I485 are current or when I am eligible to file I485? Or is it that I have to monitor the dates and have to file only when I am sure that the dates are current? How does this work?

I will appreciate any guidance on this.

[qesehmk]

Q I believe atleast 30K SOFAD has been allocated this is purely using the difference of demand data....

The concern really is about the Aug approval trend, since the first week was a full working week the relative count of EB2-I approvals is 50% to all others, if you look at Jul the trend was a whitewash. This indicates that USCIS is struggling to close EB2-I cases in relative terms to other categories. ...
Teddy if its a belief then that is where we can't have a rational argument. If its belief then that's the end of the road for either agreement or disagreement.

Depending on how much is already consumed will change the explanation for low consumption in August. In my judgement this is artificially subdued. Its possible they artificially subdued it to make a case for a BTM. We will see ... "Dilli Door Nahin!".


Q / Spec its really getting closer to the climax now. Till now EB2 ROW approvals on Trackitt have hovered around 90% of last year.

Teddy I think we are in strong agreement. ROW consumption this year for EB2 is slightly higher than last year. Plus the ROW EB2 allocation is less - resulting in less SOFAD contribution overall.

On another note .... where you been !

p.s. - Until Friday when i checked trackitt data, it was still showing favorable EB1 EB2ROW trend. Just today I checked it again and it shows 19 EB1 approvals and 14 EB2ROW approvals in first 7 days of August. That is indeed a worrisome rate. On other hands EB2IC have had close to 45 approvals in first 2 weeks.

[nishant2200]

Trackitt - nothing unusual spike in approvals posted even at end of today, in either category.

Saw a guy with Nationality India, but country of chargeability Nepal, in EB2 ROW approved ... Makes you wonder what happens if born on the plane, does the airlines' nationality count, or the airspace you are in count :)

[nishant2200]

Q, I have been reading old IV posts, the original EB2-EB3 Predictions thread. I kind of wanted to see the legacy and how this blog took birth. A lot of things make sense to me now.

Thanks for making this a safe haven for fellow aspirants, to freely, speak their minds, and understand this intricate process. To not fear asking questions. To not burn anyone on the stake.

I am late to this party, just beginning to get a grasp of the glorious stage you, Teddy, and various other heroes I see on IV set. I hope their avatars are still lingering on here.

To boldly go where no one has gone before, with the enigmatic 'Q' of Star Trek, this time on your side.

[kaella]

I finally got greened. I have been regular visitor on this forum since it started

Checked mail box yesterday and found green cards for me and my wife and welcome letters for both.

Priority date : Apr 06 2007
Category : EB2
Approval date : Aug 02 2011

I wish good luck for all the folks waiting to be greened.

[gc_usa]

Two thing can happen this week. If bulletin get published early means DOS has less supply for sure than demand and no need to wait for whole week to see consumption rate till last minute. If it gets delay means they have higher or moderate supply and they want to see how USCIS can handle approval rate. Since August movement for backlogged country was not that great I see first one happening , bulletin may be released today or tomorrow itself.

[mesan123]

Congrats To you and your family... :)


I finally got greened. I have been regular visitor on this forum since it started

Checked mail box yesterday and found green cards for me and my wife and welcome letters for both.

Priority date : Apr 06 2007
Category : EB2
Approval date : Aug 02 2011

I wish good luck for all the folks waiting to be greened.

[shreyasai2004]

Hi,

My employer has not given my PERM and I-140 documents. Intially they said my PD is XX-XX-XXXX and now they are saying different date. How can i get my documents copy.
If I am not wrong we can use G-639 form to get information from USCIS. If yes please let me know to which address we need to send this form.


Thanks in advance.

[nishant2200]

Sep 2008, 2009 & 2010 bulletins dates:

Aug 8th 2008 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 june 06 to 8 august 06
Aug 10th 2009 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 Oct 2003 to 8 Jan 2005, did not retro in Oct
Aug 9th 2010 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 Mar 06 to 8 May 06

So past 3 years, sep bulletin only 5 business days ino week, always movement, and no retro in next October.

[GCDespo]

In the past fw years it moved atleast 2 months . So this year it may move 5-6 weeks since the demand is twice as thick , So I am gussing MAY20 or MAY 27. I hope there is a bigger movement though

[ssvp22]

Sep 2008, 2009 & 2010 bulletins dates:

Aug 8th 2008 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 june 06 to 8 august 06
Aug 10th 2009 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 Oct 2003 to 8 Jan 2005, did not retro in Oct
Aug 9th 2010 - 5 business days into month, moved from 1 Mar 06 to 8 May 06

So past 3 years, sep bulletin only 5 business days ino week, always movement, and no retro in next October.

Restating the obvious, but we are on the 6th working day. Hope it comes today and we get done with it once for good and sit out and wait till May 2012.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy if its a belief then that is where we can't have a rational argument. If its belief then that's the end of the road for either agreement or disagreement.

Depending on how much is already consumed will change the explanation for low consumption in August. In my judgement this is artificially subdued. Its possible they artificially subdued it to make a case for a BTM. We will see ... "Dilli Door Nahin!".



Teddy I think we are in strong agreement. ROW consumption this year for EB2 is slightly higher than last year. Plus the ROW EB2 allocation is less - resulting in less SOFAD contribution overall.

On another note .... where you been !

p.s. - Until Friday when i checked trackitt data, it was still showing favorable EB1 EB2ROW trend. Just today I checked it again and it shows 19 EB1 approvals and 14 EB2ROW approvals in first 7 days of August. That is indeed a worrisome rate. On other hands EB2IC have had close to 45 approvals in first 2 weeks.

Q I believe atleast 30K SOFAD has been allocated this is purely using the difference of demand data. The I/C regular cap is 5.5K, I believe that India alone contributes 6K of porting, assuming India's cap went just for porting this makes it 8.5K. May & June bulletins accounted for ~ 9K Allocation and Jul bulletin accounted for another 11.5K. So the total usage thus far is already 30K adding say 500 -1000 PWMB. I agree we differ by a wide margin on the perception of how much SOFAD is used. There was a discussion between me and Veni several posts back even he tended to agree with the 30K consumption till Aug.

Thanks for your predictions even Iam praying for BTM. I agree with you ROW consumption will be higher I believe we look at Trackitt differently I go by the "485 Approval Denial date" while I believe as you mentioned you look at the last update date that’s causing the discrepancy. I use primary applicant only in addition to the date filter for the 485 approval / denial date.


Nishant, sometimes I just feel plain lucky that people liked objective analysis and then they felt it worthwhile to join hands and actively contribute. Many from the beginning continue to participate. Especially Teddy, who still runs a great thread on IV by the same name and of course is our Guru as well :)

Thanks for your kind words.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

I am not saying BTM is certainty. But I do think Jul 8th has a very decent chance.

As per 30 K consumption - I think you are assuming that all of May-Jul visas are allocated. That doesn't seem to be the case when you look so many cases pending that are current in trackitt. Cross the fingers :)


Q I believe atleast 30K SOFAD has been allocated this is purely using the difference of demand data. The I/C regular cap is 5.5K, I believe that India alone contributes 6K of porting, assuming India's cap went just for porting this makes it 8.5K. May & June bulletins accounted for ~ 9K Allocation and Jul bulletin accounted for another 11.5K. So the total usage thus far is already 30K adding say 500 -1000 PWMB. I agree we differ by a wide margin on the perception of how much SOFAD is used. There was a discussion between me and Veni several posts back even he tended to agree with the 30K consumption till Aug.

Thanks for your predictions even Iam praying for BTM. I agree with you ROW consumption will be higher I believe we look at Trackitt differently I go by the "485 Approval Denial date" while I believe as you mentioned you look at the last update date that’s causing the discrepancy. I use primary applicant only in addition to the date filter for the 485 approval / denial date.



Thanks for your kind words.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

I am not saying BTM is certainty. But I do think Jul 8th has a very decent chance.

As per 30 K consumption - I think you are assuming that all of May-Jul visas are allocated. That doesn't seem to be the case when you look so many cases pending that are current in trackitt. Cross the fingers :)

Q I agree with you Trackitt approvals do not indicate that all cases have been approved but looks like at some point they will be approved prior to Sep end so both ways are different approaches to look at the same thing. However by your approach there is a possibility that if there are some genuine issues with the cases that are current they can move further this is the silver lining that I see. I agree BTM will always be in the speculative domain there can be no certainty around it, we can only pray for it. All the best to you on your personal front, we all hope to hear your good news this week. 8th Jul is also a great point to settle down it will be 14 months of movement from last year through one of the densest zones.

[superdesi2100]

Demand data for September 2011 posted..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[qblogfan]

Search USCIS FOIA in google.

I got all my PERM/140 documents through FOIA.

I waited for almost six months. FOIA has a huge backlog of 8000 or sth.

Not only GC has backlog, FOIA also has backlog, everything is slow in the immigration agencies.



Hi,

My employer has not given my PERM and I-140 documents. Intially they said my PD is XX-XX-XXXX and now they are saying different date. How can i get my documents copy.
If I am not wrong we can use G-639 form to get information from USCIS. If yes please let me know to which address we need to send this form.


Thanks in advance.

[TeddyKoochu]

Demand data for September 2011 posted..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Thanks for posting the I+C demand is just in the excess of 8K. If we assume that a cap number was attached to every case that does not figure here then let’s do a rough calculation of SOFAD consumed. When this year started we saw 34K as the total on the demand data, so 34-8 = 26K is the absolute reduction in the demand data. If we assume 4-6K of porting then definitely 30K or more SOFAD has been consumed or cap number allocated. Looks like the VB will come out in a day or two now, all the very best to everyone.

[qblogfan]

thanks for posting.

we need 8000 visa numbers to finish 2007 July fisaco.


Demand data for September 2011 posted..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[Spectator]

Q I agree with you Trackitt approvals do not indicate that all cases have been approved but looks like at some point they will be approved prior to Sep end so both ways are different approaches to look at the same thing. However by your approach there is a possibility that if there are some genuine issues with the cases that are current they can move further this is the silver lining that I see. I agree BTM will always be in the speculative domain there can be no certainty around it, we can only pray for it. All the best to you on your personal front, we all hope to hear your good news this week. 8th Jul is also a great point to settle down it will be 14 months of movement from last year through one of the densest zones.Teddy,

I agree with your summary.

One element we have never taken into account is any approvals direct from LO when the PD was Current at time of interview.

These are cases that DOS would have not had foreknowledge of and would be in addition to the apparent drop in Demand.

The numbers may appear to be small compared to EB3, but they are not zero. In an end game where the numbers are close, those may have a role to play.

September Demand figures are exactly as expected. I had already filled them in in my spreadsheet and was within 75 on all figures for EB2.

Time to wait for the VB itself!

[nishant2200]

Demand data for September 2011 posted..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

I always get beat to this by someone :)

Thank you. 8000 left, hopefully they reduce it by half to 4k in this FY. Then if EB1 is merciful, stage is set for a tipping/decision point in around May 2012.

[skpanda]

Demand Data Question:

The total demand data 8,275 for EB2 is the number of applications that will carry forward to FY 2012 OR the september numbers will be subtracted from it (Say 2-3K numbers available for sept 2011)?? I think that the later will happen but want to make sure.

Also on another note - I see that EB3 China has only 5K demand that means they will be better than ROW by FY 2013 and will have BTM around that time. Same thing for EB3 Mexico (3K demand data).

EB2 China should see a BTM some time sooner than EB2-I since they have less than 3k demand. If they wait too late (say May 2012), then they may not be able to process as many applications to meet the SOFAD. It would be interesting to see if Sept 2011 will set a precedent as to what DOS does when Demand data is zero or just enough for annual consumption.
EB2 India does not have the issue since they are going to have more demand (atleast 10K as per calcualtions from Gurus here) carried forward to FY 2012 (Pending + PWMB).

[velugc]

I always get beat to this by someone :)

Thank you. 8000 left, hopefully they reduce it by half to 4k in this FY. Then if EB1 is merciful, stage is set for a tipping/decision point in around May 2012.

Sep demand data out :)... Start Music...

[gchopeful123]

Can someone pl comment on how much this demand has reduced based on last month's numbers? I am unable to find the data for last month.Thanks!

Also why are there ONLY 275 cases between Jan 2008 and Jan 2011 i.e 8275 - 8000.



Demand data for September 2011 posted..

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[whereismygclost]

appropiate song ...."who let the dogs out???" :D

Sep demand data out :)... Start Music...

[natvyas]

Can someone pl comment on how much this demand has reduced based on last month's numbers? I am unable to find the data for last month.Thanks!

I was looking at the Aug demand data this morning (waiting for the Sept Demand Data) and EB2 India was around 6400.

[qesehmk]

Sep will reduce it but then new demand will flow in. So it can go eitherway. The reason being demand data is "documentarily qualified".

EB2ROW is zero which looks strange.

BTM will be common for EB2IC. But if there is no BTM then in 2012 FY EB2C will have much faster SFM compared to EB2I. Makes sense?


Demand Data Question:

The total demand data 8,275 for EB2 is the number of applications that will carry forward to FY 2012 OR the september numbers will be subtracted from it (Say 2-3K numbers available for sept 2011)?? I think that the later will happen but want to make sure.

Also on another note - I see that EB3 China has only 5K demand that means they will be better than ROW by FY 2013 and will have BTM around that time. Same thing for EB3 Mexico (3K demand data).

EB2 China should see a BTM some time sooner than EB2-I since they have less than 3k demand. If they wait too late (say May 2012), then they may not be able to process as many applications to meet the SOFAD. EB2 India does not have the issue since they are going to have more demand (atleast 10K as per calcualtions from Gurus here) carried forward to FY 2012 (Pending + PWMB).

[nishant2200]

Demand Data Question:

The total demand data 8,275 for EB2 is the number of applications that will carry forward to FY 2012 OR the september numbers will be subtracted from it (Say 2-3K numbers available for sept 2011)?? I think that the later will happen but want to make sure.

Also on another note - I see that EB3 China has only 5K demand that means they will be better than ROW by FY 2013 and will have BTM around that time. Same thing for EB3 Mexico (3K demand data).

EB2 China should see a BTM some time sooner than EB2-I since they have less than 3k demand. If they wait too late (say May 2012), then they may not be able to process as many applications to meet the SOFAD. It would be interesting to see if Sept 2011 will set a precedent as to what DOS does when Demand data is zero or just enough for annual consumption.
EB2 India does not have the issue since they are going to have more demand (atleast 10K as per calcualtions from Gurus here) carried forward to FY 2012 (Pending + PWMB).

Very very astute observation. I can't think of any hole in this. I think they need to do BTM for EB2 C right now! At the very worst in October when they show that demand is, let's say only 2600 (taking into account 1000 approvals as well as 400 chinese PWMB, just a hypothetical scenario), which is less than 2800, which China is projected to consume easily. And their BTM's B would be bigger than us potentially.

[vchirakala]

Hi Everyone,

So can someone predict the cut off date for September bulletin based on this link ....
Can someone pl comment on how much this demand has reduced based on last month's numbers? I am unable to find the data for last month.Thanks!

Also why are there ONLY 275 cases between Jan 2008 and Jan 2011 i.e 8275 - 8000.

[nishant2200]

On second thoughts, maybe they have to do simultaneous BTM, as otherwise, they might violate the strict order of PD for SO visa assignment. And as Q said above, can instead do SFM for C.

[nishant2200]

Hi Everyone,

So can someone predict the cut off date for September bulletin based on this link ....

vchirakala,

I attribute these post 2008 numbers to:
1. CP demand (does this show up in demand data?)
2. Porting, the PDs have yet not been interfiled to the EB3 date.

It can't be clerical error, as we have been seeing these post 2008 number consistently.

They maybe useful if DOS needs to show there is demand in 2008 and need to move dates to reach there, but that applies only to 1 above. Brings back all the talk of NVC Notices for CP in EB2 I 2008 PDs.

[skpanda]

Thanks! But SFM may not be possible since EB2 China will not have enough applications that are 'documentarily qualified' for atleast 2 months from when they decide to make BTM. It would make more sense if they have BTM for EB2 China right now.... but then USCIS and DOS have their own way of doing things...

I have a feeling that EB2 China will set a precedent for EB2 India and that would happen soon. Best case would be that they will be forced to have BTM for EB2 India at the same time as that EB2 China. So EB2 China demand going below 2800 in sept 2011 could be a blessing for EB2 India.

All the best to everybody for Sept 2011.




BTM will be common for EB2IC. But if there is no BTM then in 2012 FY EB2C will have much faster SFM compared to EB2I. Makes sense?


On second thoughts, maybe they have to do simultaneous BTM, as otherwise, they might violate the strict order of PD for SO visa assignment. And as Q said above, can instead do SFM for C.

[waiting]

Can someone explain this ?
EB-2 I demand before Jan 1st 2008 is 4800 and before Jan 1st 2011 is 4925 -- how come 125 documantory qualified immigrants between these dates.. COD for EB2 India were never current during this time.. Are they CP cases by any chance?

[gchopeful123]

qblogfan,
Any updates/rumors from our chinese friends on the mittbs blog?

[vchirakala]

Nishanth,

Thank you ..but seriously what does that mean ..please explain...;-)
vchirakala,

I attribute these post 2008 numbers to:
1. CP demand (does this show up in demand data?)
2. Porting, the PDs have yet not been interfiled to the EB3 date.

It can't be clerical error, as we have been seeing these post 2008 number consistently.

They maybe useful if DOS needs to show there is demand in 2008 and need to move dates to reach there, but that applies only to 1 above. Brings back all the talk of NVC Notices for CP in EB2 I 2008 PDs.

[Spectator]

skpanda, My comments are inline.


Demand Data Question:

The total demand data 8,275 for EB2 is the number of applications that will carry forward to FY 2012 OR the september numbers will be subtracted from it (Say 2-3K numbers available for sept 2011)?? I think that the later will happen but want to make sure.

You are correct. The numbers represent those expected at the end of August 2011 and before any further reduction as a result of COD movement in the September VB.

Also on another note - I see that EB3 China has only 5K demand that means they will be better than ROW by FY 2013 and will have BTM around that time. Same thing for EB3 Mexico (3K demand data).

EB2 China should see a BTM some time sooner than EB2-I since they have less than 3k demand. If they wait too late (say May 2012), then they may not be able to process as many applications to meet the SOFAD. It would be interesting to see if Sept 2011 will set a precedent as to what DOS does when Demand data is zero or just enough for annual consumption.
EB2 India does not have the issue since they are going to have more demand (atleast 10K as per calcualtions from Gurus here) carried forward to FY 2012 (Pending + PWMB).

No 7% limited Country may have a COD later than that set for Worldwide (ROW).

Once a Country reaches the ROW COD, they can only consume as many visas as forward movement of the ROW COD allows, since they will also have this date.

Also bear in mind that EB3-C has up to 50% CP demand, not all of which will be shown in the DOS figures yet.

EB3-M has consistently consumed more visas than the apparent demand.

EB2-C COD will move faster than EB2-I initially in any year, but then EB2-I and EB2-C will become the same during "Spillover Season"

EB2-C have too many pending visas between the present COD and today to become Current on their own. They probably have enough PWMB of their own that DOS don't have to BTM them before EB2-I, since DOS can just throttle back the monthly approvals to suit the actual number.

[nishant2200]

Refer to my post # 5907 above.


Can someone explain this ?
EB-2 I demand before Jan 1st 2008 is 4800 and before Jan 1st 2011 is 4925 -- how come 125 documantory qualified immigrants between these dates.. COD for EB2 India were never current during this time.. Are they CP cases by any chance?

[nishant2200]

1. Two ways you can get Permanent Residency in Employment based category. First is AOS (Adjustment of Status), in which you have to be in USA when you file for the last stage, and the form is I-485, this is what most of us here are. The USCIS adjudicates your application and obtains a visa number from Department of State, if approved, for you and your dependents. Second is CP (Consular Processing), most commonly seen in family based category. Here they applicant has to go to a consulate (just like you go for H1 etc), for a interview, and if approved, the consulate attaches a visa number. The agency here is not USCIS, but National Visa Center (NVC) and consulate. The common factor is DOS (Department of State).

2. When someone ports from EB3 to EB2, he may have a EB2 PD of say somewhere in 2010, but his actual PD will be used is his EB3 PD (maybe somewhere say in 2005). The lawyer does a process of interfiling and officially lets know USCIS to use the EB3 PD.

This is in simple words I tried.


Nishanth,

Thank you ..but seriously what does that mean ..please explain...;-)

[jackbrown_890]

Demand Data:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[vchirakala]

thanks Nishanth

[waiting]

Nishant - thanks,

1) CP cases - do not understand why there are CP cases who had their interviews without being current.

2) 125 Porting cases - This sounds too good to be true. Only 125 poring cases so far.

[vchirakala]

Does that mean anytime soon EB2 is going to be current ...reading 1) CPcases who had their interviews without being current ??????

Nishant - thanks,

1) CP cases - do not understand why there are CP cases who had their interviews without being current.

2) 125 Porting cases - This sounds too good to be true. Only 125 poring cases so far.

[nishant2200]

1. To be here, means, these guys paid their fees to NVC notice, and submitted documents, are documentarily qualified, actual interview will be scheduled only if dates are current. NVC notices are sent in anticipation of dates being current in sometime soon, unlike 485 which can only be filed when date is current.

2. This I am just speculating, and maybe just some errors on USCIS/DOS side because of the porting confusion. They may all be just CP.

It may also be just pure mistakes, but hard to see that happening consistently in each and every demand data report.


Nishant - thanks,

1) CP cases - do not understand why there are CP cases who had their interviews without being current.

2) 125 Porting cases - This sounds too good to be true. Only 125 poring cases so far.

[nishant2200]

Side by side, markets are falling worldwide because of the S&P downgrade.

[gchopeful123]

Yes - because the US credit rating was marked as poor standards by standard poors...he he he


Side by side, markets are falling worldwide because of the S&P downgrade.

[soggadu]

Fab 4... a summary of the demand data is needed...please post ur analysis so that lot of our questions are answered and we keep our fingers crossed till VB rather than use them to type more questions...

[la_2002_ch]

Gurus, one of my colleagues with a similar PD as mine (Sep 2008) just heard from our common attorney that he has received the fee notice for his CP case. (dont know why the HR decided to file my case as AOS and his as CP).

Does this help us in predicting any good/bad news (Hoping good... so that I can file the EAD for my wife).

[Spectator]

Fab 4... a summary of the demand data is needed...please post ur analysis so that lot of our questions are answered and we keep our fingers crossed till VB rather than use them to type more questions...soggadu,

The Demand Data is exactly as expected (8k EB2-IC left before the September VB).

The Demand Data does not tell us how many visas might be allocated in September and therefore how far the COD might move in the September VB.

We all have to wait I'm afraid.

[soggadu]

soggadu,

The Demand Data is exactly as expected (8k EB2-IC left before the September VB).

The Demand Data does not tell us how many visas might be allocated in September and therefore how far the COD might move in the September VB.

We all have to wait I'm afraid.

Spec...couple of Questions then...

1. Why is EB2 ROW showing 0...no documentarily qualified pending ? If so why are we afraid of increase in numbers for EB2 ROW and EB1...
2. How many visas were issued for the month of July and approx for Aug... Also, does 8K number include people those r current in Aug?
3. WHat is the final figure of left over SOFAD we are looking at?

[leo07]

Reduction in backlog from the previous month is 2225. Last month's demand showed as 10500 for EB2

I was looking at the Aug demand data this morning (waiting for the Sept Demand Data) and EB2 India was around 6400.

[soggadu]

Gurus, one of my colleagues with a similar PD as mine (Sep 2008) just heard from our common attorney that he has received the fee notice for his CP case. (dont know why the HR decided to file my case as AOS and his as CP).

Does this help us in predicting any good/bad news (Hoping good... so that I can file the EAD for my wife).

la.... as mentioned before these NVC notices would be given 1 yr prior to get all the documents in place... for your other question...read what Spec had to say...

[gc_usa]

Gurus, one of my colleagues with a similar PD as mine (Sep 2008) just heard from our common attorney that he has received the fee notice for his CP case. (dont know why the HR decided to file my case as AOS and his as CP).

Does this help us in predicting any good/bad news (Hoping good... so that I can file the EAD for my wife).

If it is Sep 2008 then big question is why nvc is moving ahead so fast ? Does that mean DOS sees more number falling next year ? I am big fan of this NVC theory :)

[nishant2200]

If it is Sep 2008 then big question is why nvc is moving ahead so fast ? Does that mean DOS sees more number falling next year ? I am big fan of this NVC theory :)

I need someone to actually put a scan of the NVC notice, of course after crossing out any identifying details, then I will be convinced. It keeps on bothering me that I have not seen actual proof of this. However, I must say that I found a post by a paralegal on Ron Gotcher's forum, who said that their firm has indeed obtained NVC Notices for EB2 I in year 2008.

This wait is killing me. I am going to put some nasty bugs in code today.

[qesehmk]

soggadu its hard to decipher demand data & coming to a conclusion about one month movement. The reason being what they show is important but what it hides could be vital! The demand data shows "documentarily qualified" but hides "not qualifed" cases as well as "current" cases. So the 8K that EB2 is showing is nothing but mathematical calculation of numbers from 15 Apr onwards till August. So nothing surprising or exciting in there.

The only thing I can think of is - indeed they are commited to allocate visas through Apr 15 since they seem to have excluded all those cases from demand data.

Another thing I can say is - there is nothing bad in the demand data. Something that will catch your eyes and go .... whoa these are guys are going to retro. But other than that difficult to say what these guys are thinking.

Here is one last point - if they are showing demand of 8K for EB2 category and the entire category has more than 8K left ....that gives them a very good pretext to make the entire category current. By law they can do it if they choose to.






Fab 4... a summary of the demand data is needed...please post ur analysis so that lot of our questions are answered and we keep our fingers crossed till VB rather than use them to type more questions...

[tiger_of_web]

Feb Demand : 32975
Sept Demand : 8000

Total backlog cleared : 24975. That's cool.

[soggadu]

I need someone to actually put a scan of the NVC notice, of course after crossing out any identifying details, then I will be convinced. It keeps on bothering me that I have not seen actual proof of this. However, I must say that I found a post by a paralegal on Ron Gotcher's forum, who said that their firm has indeed obtained NVC Notices for EB2 I in year 2008.

This wait is killing me. I am going to put some nasty bugs in code today.

chil Nishant... remember this mantra... aaya toh aaya, baaki sab maaya... u have to relax a bit bro.... go have a beer...take ur family out or have a fight with wife...

[soggadu]

soggadu its hard to decipher demand data & coming to a conclusion about one month movement. The reason being what they show is important but what it hides could be vital! The demand data shows "documentarily qualified" but hides "not qualifed" cases as well as "current" cases. So the 8K that EB2 is showing is nothing but mathematical calculation of numbers from 15 Apr onwards till August. So nothing surprising or exciting in there.

The only thing I can think of is - indeed they are commited to allocate visas through Apr 15 since they seem to have excluded all those cases from demand data.

Another thing I can say is - there is nothing bad in the demand data. Something that will catch your eyes and go .... whoa these are guys are going to retro. But other than that difficult to say what these guys are thinking.

Here is one last point - if they are showing demand of 8K for EB2 category and the entire category has more than 8K left ....that gives them a very good pretext to make the entire category current. By law they can do it if they choose to.

Thank you Q... yes i did get the point that this has nothing new and we stand at the same place still.... But i really cant imagine going current...

[neospeed]

Are we expecting the VB today itself or tomorrow and what is movement for sept?.

[Spectator]

DOS Demand for EB2-IC has reduced (for periods Current in each release) by 25,750 in the months October 2010 to August 2011 inclusive.

Any porting numbers etc should be added to this figure.

[iamdeb]

Any idea how much of the SOFAD is still left?

[skpanda]

Here is one last point - if they are showing demand of 8K for EB2 category and the entire category has more than 8K left ....that gives them a very good pretext to make the entire category current. By law they can do it if they choose to.

Q.. I hope this comes true.. this will help people like me who have PD farther from July 2007 (mine is Dec 2010). Not very super optimistic about it.. but just hope...

[velugc]

Are we expecting the VB today itself or tomorrow and what is movement for sept?.

Q is ur source back... can we get any updates from him on the movement...

no words yet from any source (Q's source, mitbbs.com etc) looks like CO would like to keep the cards closed till the release of VB and suprise us... hope it turns out good... with a big BTM or even with EB2 as current :)

[qesehmk]

Me too. The thing is .... the pretext is there it seems. Whether they will use it - who knows ?


Q.. I hope this comes true.. this will help people like me who have PD farther from July 2007 (mine is Dec 2010). Not very super optimistic about it.. but just hope...

[leo07]

for this to hold true, they need to have 8k+ visas ready-to-be-allocated for EB2 as a whole. Given it's the last month, it's extremely unlikely that they will sit on so many visas until last minute.

Me too. The thing is .... the pretext is there it seems. Whether they will use it - who knows ?

[iamdeb]

Pulled up Aug 2011 demand data.
For EB2 China it was 4050 and for EB2 India it was 6400. So I guess 2450 has been consumed.

[srimurthy]

Q.. I hope this comes true.. this will help people like me who have PD farther from July 2007 (mine is Dec 2010). Not very super optimistic about it.. but just hope...

I hope too as this will leave a lot of people happy including me (PD - Sep'2010)who can get a EAD.

[qesehmk]

Yes that is the basic condition. They had 19K for Aug + Sep excluding the EB2IC SOFAD.
So is it likely they will have more than 8K for Sep for EB2. Somewhat likely. But as I said that is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for a BTM. Of course C is the most extreme BTM. Lets see.

On another note.... nothing heard so far from source.


for this to hold true, they need to have 8k+ visas ready-to-be-allocated for EB2 as a whole. Given it's the last month, it's extremely unlikely that they will sit on so many visas until last minute.

[evoori]

BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM ......

This wait is killing me..

BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM .. BTM or NO BTM ..

[vchirakala]

BTM Hurray ... sorry guys just kidding ...i know this wait is killing

[veni001]

DOS Demand for EB2-IC has reduced (for periods Current in each release) by 25,750 in the months October 2010 to August 2011 inclusive.

Any porting numbers etc should be added to this figure.


Yes that is the basic condition. They had 19K for Aug + Sep excluding the EB2IC SOFAD.
So is it likely they will have more than 8K for Sep for EB2. Somewhat likely. But as I said that is a necessary (but not sufficient) condition for a BTM. Of course C is the most extreme BTM. Lets see.

On another note.... nothing heard so far from source.

In addition, considering August'11 PD progression, i do not see any significant change in EB3I demand data. Which means the porting numbers are less than our estimates?

[leo07]

Good point Veni. It's basically going to the last ball of the match.

Q, Thanks for your response. As you said in one of your earlier posts, it's in the corridor of belief, 'How likely' it is :)

[Pdmar08]

I am not sure if i m not reading it on the blog or plain not reading it right..sorry monday morning but demand data is out. Sorry if i am posting it again.
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Cumulative
Demand Prior To China- 3,250 India- 4,925

[qesehmk]

Not to belabour the point but there is slight difference.

Belief would be if someone says "it is going to happen". I don't think there is any guarantee. All I am saying is the condition may be present to make the move.



Q, Thanks for your response. As you said in one of your earlier posts, it's in the corridor of belief, 'How likely' it is :)

[cbpds1]

Going by the past few years, Sept bulletin has remained the same or has moved by 2-3 months, so dont expect this time to be anything different :(

[sha_kus]

The answer lies in the statement only "fall-up" happens from E4/E5 to E1.


The Demand Data standard verbiage quotes :


So this means spillover from E5 and E4 first go to E3 then to E2 and then to E1.

Am i understanding this correctly ?

[vishnu]

CBPDS1 - of course the bulletin may very well only move a bit, but the issue this time is unpredented. That is, the backlog of documentarily qualified I-485s is nearing zero and hence some move has to be made, either now or in Q3/Q4 FY12 to take in a truck load of fresh I-485s.

[Spectator]

In addition, considering August'11 PD progression, i do not see any significant change in EB3I demand data. Which means the porting numbers are less than our estimates?Veni,

I don't think Demand Data is very good for gauging porting, since it is only a net change.

Trackitt data suggests a figure of at least 3.5-4k based on PDs of EB2 approvals and cases approved as EB3 with PD later than EB3 Cut Off Date. Any Porting within dates that were also Current for EB2-I is difficult to judge and is not included in that figure.

The estimates between different members were quite wide ranging.

It is a really hard number to arrive at with any degree of certainty and may provide some "wiggle room" compared to the highest estimates.

[grnwtg]

In addition, considering August'11 PD progression, i do not see any significant change in EB3I demand data. Which means the porting numbers are less than our estimates?

I am not positive if this demand data calculated porting numbers. In database will they mark EB3 record inactive/delete it if that record gets ported to eb2?
I am sure in some of the previous bulletin we have found out reduction of eb3 data which we thought that it is because of porting.

orelse is it just somebody did not choose a condition while pulling data for eb3?.

Anyways we might get bulletin by Thursday( or tomorrow?).. hopefully there will be BTM..

[venkat]

How big is Porting actually?

There is big talk in internet forums about Porting being happening left and right but I believe it’s not as big as we all think.

There are total of 5 scenarios possible in Porting:

i) Porting within the same company - We all know that this involves lot of risk as the new job responsibility (2nd PERM) has to be 50% different to that of the original PERM. Having said that still the case may go into an Audit queue and could get stuck there for months and even years. It also needs a lot of convincing because it costs lot of money.

ii) Moving from Desi consultant to Full Time - This is by far the best option why people go for Porting. Even in this route the person may have to wait 6 months/ 1 year before the employer can start the process. Add to that 8 months for Labor and 140 and another 6 months for USCIS to eventually get to the case and close it based on earlier priority date. We are talking 2 years easily.

iii) Moving from Full Time to Desi Consultant- People generally don't go for this because typically full time employees enjoy lots of benefits and would have bought houses and kind of settled. They don't want to get into an unpredictable world of Consulting with market being as bad as it is. Moreover Desi consultants will not get any benefit out of this person if he stays for less than a year. Hence they would not be in any hurry to start the GC processing.

iv) Moving from one Desi to another Desi - I don't see any advantage because of reasons seen above.

v) Moving from Full Time to another Full Time - This is worth a gamble but still no one would risk their current employment in the present market.

Finally there is this biggest fear in everyone's mind that what if something goes wrong in the middle. Let’s play it safe….

I feel this whole Porting stuff has been simply blown out of proportion.
Comments are welcome!!!

[mesan123]

If it gets current...that will be the best for many of us....atleast current for one month and retrogress( i am ok with it :) )


Q.. I hope this comes true.. this will help people like me who have PD farther from July 2007 (mine is Dec 2010). Not very super optimistic about it.. but just hope...

[sunny4gc]

Can someone predict what would be the EB2 India date on September bulletin?

[veni001]

Veni,

I don't think Demand Data is very good for gauging porting, since it is only a net change.

Trackitt data suggests a figure of at least 3.5-4k based on PDs of EB2 approvals and cases approved as EB3 with PD later than EB3 Cut Off Date. Any Porting within dates that were also Current for EB2-I is difficult to judge and is not included in that figure.

The estimates between different members were quite wide ranging.

It is a really hard number to arrive at with any degree of certainty and may provide some "wiggle room" compared to the highest estimates.

Spec,

Based on some high porting number estimates and the recent surge in PERM filings/approvals ( June'11 DOL PERM Fact Sheet (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf) ) i was expecting significant change in EB3I demand data.

But i agree it's not as simple as comparing the demand, when comes to porting number calculations.

[leo07]

First post, first page of this very same thread has the information.

As far porting numbers, I think change-in-demand EB3 numbers,along with change in the EB3 inventory from October through September of a given year, would give a close estimate for porting number.

At this point, it's anybody's guess as to how much they've consumed this year.


Can someone predict what would be the EB2 India date on September bulletin?

[veni001]

I am not positive if this demand data calculated porting numbers. In database will they mark EB3 record inactive/delete it if that record gets ported to eb2?
I am sure in some of the previous bulletin we have found out reduction of eb3 data which we thought that it is because of porting.

orelse is it just somebody did not choose a condition while pulling data for eb3?.

Anyways we might get bulletin by Thursday( or tomorrow?).. hopefully there will be BTM..


grnwtg,

As spec pointed porting number calculation is little trickey.

Irrespective of EB3-EB2 porting is reported in EB2 demand data or deleted from EB3 upon approval as EB2, we should see the net change in EB3 demand data (reduction) at some point!

[Spectator]

grnwtg,

As spec pointed porting number calculation is little trickey.

Irrespective of EB3-EB2 porting is reported in EB2 demand data or deleted from EB3 upon approval as EB2, we should see the net change in EB3 demand data (reduction) at some point!Veni. In the past that was probably possible.

Now, it is pretty impossible, because non current cases from LO are being returned to TSC after the interview takes place. Once TSC adds the details into the system, they will be additions to the totals and mask the true reduction due to porting.

[veni001]

First post, first page of this very same thread has the information.

As far porting numbers, I think change-in-demand EB3 numbers,along with change in the EB3 inventory from October through September of a given year, would give a close estimate for porting number.

At this point, it's anybody's guess as to how much they've consumed this year.

Leo07,
Agree, YOY could give us better picture on porting calculations.

But, we need to keep in mind that the porting dynamics changes as the gap between EB3 and EB2 COD increases....!

[veni001]

Veni. In the past that was probably possible.

Now, it is pretty impossible, because non current cases from LO are being returned to TSC after the interview takes place. Once TSC adds the details into the system, they will be additions to the totals and mask the true reduction due to porting.

Spec,

Agree, with the change in processing they started transferring all non current EB cases from LO to TSC in January 2011.

Don't you think most of these pending cases from LO should have been transferred to TSC by now?

[mesan123]

Will The debt ceiling ,S&P rating and stock markets tumbling today have effect on our SEP & OCT bulletin ???

Or will we have no effect bcoz of this on our date movements?

[qesehmk]

veni

Spec is right. Although they are by now, since they were not in Oct 2010, one can't look at demand data from today, compare with Oct 2010 and do the math.
In simple words demand data today and in OCt 2010 is not on teh same basis.


Spec,

Agree, with the change in processing they started transferring all non current EB cases from LO to TSC in January 2011.

Don't you think most of these pending cases from LO should have been transferred to TSC by now?

[chikitsak]

The demand data should also start representing atleast the starting trickle of PWMB in the lastest report. Not much of an impact yet and this includes the first 7 days of August.

[username]

How big is Porting actually?

There is big talk in internet forums about Porting being happening left and right but I believe it’s not as big as we all think.

There are total of 5 scenarios possible in Porting:

i) Porting within the same company - We all know that this involves lot of risk as the new job responsibility (2nd PERM) has to be 50% different to that of the original PERM. Having said that still the case may go into an Audit queue and could get stuck there for months and even years. It also needs a lot of convincing because it costs lot of money.

ii) Moving from Desi consultant to Full Time - This is by far the best option why people go for Porting. Even in this route the person may have to wait 6 months/ 1 year before the employer can start the process. Add to that 8 months for Labor and 140 and another 6 months for USCIS to eventually get to the case and close it based on earlier priority date. We are talking 2 years easily.

iii) Moving from Full Time to Desi Consultant- People generally don't go for this because typically full time employees enjoy lots of benefits and would have bought houses and kind of settled. They don't want to get into an unpredictable world of Consulting with market being as bad as it is. Moreover Desi consultants will not get any benefit out of this person if he stays for less than a year. Hence they would not be in any hurry to start the GC processing.

iv) Moving from one Desi to another Desi - I don't see any advantage because of reasons seen above.

v) Moving from Full Time to another Full Time - This is worth a gamble but still no one would risk their current employment in the present market.

Finally there is this biggest fear in everyone's mind that what if something goes wrong in the middle. Let’s play it safe….

I feel this whole Porting stuff has been simply blown out of proportion.
Comments are welcome!!!

Due to jobs loss in year 2008 & 2009, lots of people have move to new employer starting GC process all over again and have option of upgrading from EB3 to EB2 category (base on experience gained with old employer). Here were porting will come into account. Does this make sense?

[soggadu]

Will The debt ceiling ,S&P rating and stock markets tumbling today have effect on our SEP & OCT bulletin ???

Or will we have no effect bcoz of this on our date movements?

mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...

did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...

my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....

[soggadu]

The demand data should also start representing atleast the starting trickle of PWMB in the lastest report. Not much of an impact yet and this includes the first 7 days of August.

rememeber... demand data includes only documentarily qualified cases... pwmb will take atleast 1 or 2 months to be in the list...

[cbpds1]

Atleast u got something to eat :), I thght beans were costlier than potatoes....duhh


mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...

did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...

my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....

[veni001]

veni

Spec is right. Although they are by now, since they were not in Oct 2010, one can't look at demand data from today, compare with Oct 2010 and do the math.
In simple words demand data today and in OCt 2010 is not on teh same basis.

Q,
My point is if they are(most of the LO inventory) transferred by now then we could rely on month to month demand data to a get a feel for it?

Agree, it will be hard to get the clear picture based on YOY comparison due to the recent changes in processing EB applications.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Agree, with the change in processing they started transferring all non current EB cases from LO to TSC in January 2011.

Don't you think most of these pending cases from LO should have been transferred to TSC by now?

I'll refrain from answering that question, except to say that the LO only have to return the case after the interview has taken place and it has been pre-adjudicated.

Who knows how many other cases physically located at LO are still awaiting interview and how many are still in storage locations awaiting call up to the LO.

I think USCIS are being very careful with the words they use when they say "at LO". Since December 2010, when the ALL pre-adjudicated cases were mandated to be sent to TSC, the number of pre-adjudicated cases per month reported by LO has (or is) settled down to a steady number above zero.

Certainly for EB3-ROW, it is noticeable that additions to their Inventory between the Jan 2011 and June 2011 Inventories come from dates just ahead of the present Cut Off Date.

Do you think that LO have conducted every interview for every case they have up to a PD of July 2007, when that is years away for EB3 categories?

Draw your own conclusions.

[qesehmk]

Veni

Yes I would think that LO cases are transferred by now and going forward one can do month over month comparison.


Q,
My point is if they are(most of the LO inventory) transferred by now then we could rely on month to month demand data to a get a feel for it?

Agree, i will be hard to get the clear pictured based on YOY comparison due to the recent changes in processing EB applications.

[leo07]

Actually, I have a different take here. There will be a direct impact of market-direction ON immigration on a long-term basis ( 1-2 years). Sudden fluctuations will NOT have impact on immigration. Any sustained/continued fluctuation will also NOT have impact on immediate (3-6 months) Visa bulletins.




mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...

did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...

my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....

[leo07]

Spec,

Not today, but some other day, I'd like to understand why we can't calculate porting numbers from YOY changes in inventory, along with change in demand YOY.
For today, I'll take your word that it's NOT possible to calculate porting numbers:) ( I did take many formulas that way, without questioning :))


I'll refrain from answering that question, except to say that the LO only have to return the case after the interview has taken place and it has been pre-adjudicated.

Who knows how many other cases physically located at LO are still awaiting interview and how many are still in storage locations awaiting call up to the LO.

I think USCIS are being very careful with the words they use when they say "at LO". Since December 2010, when the ALL pre-adjudicated cases were mandated to be sent to TSC, the number of pre-adjudicated cases per month reported by LO has (or is) settled down to a steady number above zero.

Certainly for EB3-ROW, it is noticeable that additions to their Inventory between the Jan 2011 and June 2011 Inventories come from dates just ahead of the present Cut Off Date.

Do you think that LO have conducted every interview for every case they have up to a PD of July 2007, when that is years away for EB3 categories?

Draw your own conclusions.

[TeddyKoochu]

Veni

Yes I would think that LO cases are transferred by now and going forward one can do month over month comparison.

Guys you are correct the YOY approach won’t work out. IMHO neither will demand data because the demand data is also a WIP document and believe me even 2002 folks are porting. The only we we can get to it is the inventory once we see the latest one then do a subtraction of the non current portion and extrapolate to 12 months. The LO cases addition to the inventory made the calculation impossible by the YOY method.

[bieber]

Q

give some good news from your source, almost puked when i just saw the afternoon market update. 15% down in 1 week

[veni001]

I'll refrain from answering that question, except to say that the LO only have to return the case after the interview has taken place and it has been pre-adjudicated.

Who knows how many other cases physically located at LO are still awaiting interview and how many are still in storage locations awaiting call up to the LO.

I think USCIS are being very careful with the words they use when they say "at LO". Since December 2010, when the ALL pre-adjudicated cases were mandated to be sent to TSC, the number of pre-adjudicated cases per month reported by LO has (or is) settled down to a steady number above zero.

Certainly for EB3-ROW, it is noticeable that additions to their Inventory between the Jan 2011 and June 2011 Inventories come from dates just ahead of the present Cut Off Date.

Do you think that LO have conducted every interview for every case they have up to a PD of July 2007, when that is years away for EB3 categories?

Draw your own conclusions.

Spec,

Since 485 could be any AOS, i was checking on i140 completion/pending/approvals at LO from the dashboard to get a feel for EB485 still pending at field office locations.

Based on the dahboard data, i can only go as far as two years, it looks to me there aren't very many still at LO. My be I am wrong, but i leave it at that!

[Spectator]

Spec,

Not today, but some other day, I'd like to understand why we can't calculate porting numbers from YOY changes in inventory, along with change in demand YOY.
For today, I'll take your word that it's NOT possible to calculate porting numbers:) ( I did take many formulas that way, without questioning :))leo,

Both the Demand Data and USCIS Inventories provide net changes between them.

That is, there are additions and subtractions. If you don't know one of these, you can't calculate the other.

e.g. a net reduction of 100 might be zero additions and 100 reductions, or it can equally be 50 additions and 150 reductions. Without knowing the additions, it is impossible to know the reduction.

If you assume no additions, you will underestimate the reductions.

[mesan123]

Beans or potatos you have something to eat....:)

I am not mixing anything shoban babu, just wanted to understand, as i saw few posts where gurus mentioned that 2008 & 2009( less EB1) bcoz of recession.

Actually i dont mind if it doesnt change....but i will feel bad if the dates retrogress bcoz of this changes in USA... :)

already atleast i have long wait....i dont want other changes bring evenmore wait for us (people with priority date 2010 nd 2011)


mesan... dont mix markets with immigration... for that matter anything with immigration or immigration with anything... even though we had bad 2008 and 2009 didnt get awesome spillover from EB1/EB2 ROW... so nothing is dependent...

did anything big happened for immigration when market crashed in 2008? nope...nada... both are different things...

my wife cooked beans instead of potatoes... is this going to have any effect? nope...not at all....