EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011 [Archive] - Page 22

TeddyKoochu

08-02-2011, 01:42 PM

Friends I just went through all the details posted, neospeed thanks for the AILA doc. I agree almost completely with what Spec is saying. This is another classification in EB2, the usage will squarely depend on how the term entrepreneur is defined. If the definition is qualitative that this will increase EB2 usage quite a bit from the non retrogressed countries however if it is something as stringent as the Kazarian memo then they will only a few qualifying applicants. This visa seems to be more of a junior version to EB5; probably they realized that getting top level entrepreneurs and investors is hard so let’s get the next level. With the current situation for I/C the entrepreneurs from these countries are almost implicitly excluded because entrepreneurs do not wait for 5 years to realize their dreams they are impulsive enough to go after them ASAP. The trigger for this category may have been the urgency to create new jobs, most testimonies and articles are skewed to the fact that US is losing out on entrepreneurs more than anything most of us in regular high skilled jobs aka EB2 and EB3 do not figure that prominently so are either more easily dispensable or no real sadness in losing us. Coming to NIW it’s very hard to qualify for this anyway mostly it requires 10 years of work experience and the most common profession if I may say IT is almost excluded from the list. If implemented this will definitely reduce SOFAD (I can understand the concerns that many have expressed) which EB2 I/C have assumed to part of the process so in that respect it definitely does not augur well, I believe we all must accept SOFAD as a privilege than a given and respect it, no one knows how long the current levels can be sustained, this year definitely is the peak or is very close to it. Let’s wait and watch for details

indiasunil

08-02-2011, 01:46 PM

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
Qesehmk--------July 1st
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
Qesehmk--------July 1st
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil ---------22-June-2007/01-July-2007

TeddyKoochu

08-02-2011, 01:47 PM

Here is the latest one I confirm my prediction again, just added the link for Spec's table.

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo :) Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?115-How-Much-Spillover-is-Required-In-September-2011-to-Move-to-a-Particular-Cut-Off-Date

nishant2200

08-02-2011, 01:53 PM

Pasting again because of over-writes above.

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June, most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil ---------22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani ------1st August 2007

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...r-Cut-Off-Date

soggadu

08-02-2011, 01:54 PM

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008

Phir vohi sawal khada hota hein....Have i made it Large....

cbpds1

08-02-2011, 01:57 PM

nishant2200

08-02-2011, 01:57 PM

sogaddu, if your prediction comes true, I will find you wherever you are and have a party.

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008

Phir vohi sawal khada hota hein....Have i made it Large....

pch053

08-02-2011, 02:02 PM

Adding mine to the list:

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007 (as pointed earlier, didn't Q say 1st week of July, i.e. 8th July?)
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007

soggadu

08-02-2011, 02:06 PM

sogaddu, if your prediction comes true, I will find you wherever you are and have a party.

No problem...we will have a large... blue label...

P.S. Jyaada doond ne ka nahi... place batao haajir ho javunga...

soggadu

08-02-2011, 02:08 PM

Soggadu bhai

I wanted 1st july 2009 , then thought it would be silly.
moreover all others are pointing out where the PD is going to halt at the end of this FY

why worry abt others... batao Nostradamus ne aeroplane ko predict kiya hoga if he thought about his peers? ( would Nostradamus have predicted aeroplane if he thought about his peers predictions? ).... you never know sistah...others predictions may look silly come Aug 10...

Gclongwait

08-02-2011, 02:08 PM

indiaeb2

08-02-2011, 02:13 PM

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007 (as pointed earlier, didn't Q say 1st week of July, i.e. 8th July?)
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007

cbpds1

08-02-2011, 02:20 PM

[QUOTE=indiaeb2;6127]Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007 (as pointed earlier, didn't Q say 1st week of July, i.e. 8th July?)
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007
cbpds1------------15th Apr 2007 - 30 Apr2008

skpanda

08-02-2011, 02:23 PM

I guess most people have covered all likely dates. There is one outcome that is highly unlikely. I will go with that!

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007 (as pointed earlier, didn't Q say 1st week of July, i.e. 8th July?)
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007
skpanda -------- CURRENT

meso129

08-02-2011, 02:28 PM

GCFresher

08-02-2011, 02:30 PM

No of predictions is competing with no of pending applications.:p
Anyways..My PD is Apr 16 2007...Missed by 2 days..

I hope to be current by coming bulletin.

ssvp22

08-02-2011, 02:31 PM

ssvp22

08-02-2011, 02:38 PM

mesan123

08-02-2011, 02:39 PM

Hope this is happens skpanda comes true.....I know this impossible...with current scenario....but we Never no.... :) but it will bring peace to few souls who will get EAD's atleast which will easy on there spouses...

I guess most people have covered all likely dates. There is one outcome that is highly unlikely. I will go with that!

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007 (as pointed earlier, didn't Q say 1st week of July, i.e. 8th July?)
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007
skpanda -------- CURRENT

soggadu

08-02-2011, 02:40 PM

Folks, this is a very trackitt way of doing things. IMHO, we are not adding any value by this approach.

you are right... i was about to mention that... this site is more of predictions with backed up numerical calculations...

PlainSpeak

08-02-2011, 02:56 PM

nishant

I must admit I haven't understood nor can I guess the motive behind this move. The move itself is unclear in how it is different from EB5 and EB2-NIW. The only thing I can think of is that it possibly creates some sort of backdoor for EB3's to qualify for EB2.

soggadu thanks for kind words. I will add helping hands to our list for next month and later this month we can all vote!

EB3 already have porting option to move to EB2 category. There is no reason to make thsi option look like a backdoor entry for EB3 alone.

indiasunil

08-02-2011, 02:59 PM

http://www.immigrationwatch.com/uscis-processing-statistics.html

Please see updates. Is it useful for predictions ?

gchopeful123

08-02-2011, 03:03 PM

Why isnt anyone talking about BTM anymore? If dates reach July 2007 (in Sep VB), doesnt it mean all backlog will be cleared? I am just wondering when my Sep 24th 2007 date will be eligible. Desperately waiting to apply for EAD.

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007 (as pointed earlier, didn't Q say 1st week of July, i.e. 8th July?)
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007
skpanda -------- CURRENT
meso129--------Mar 1 2008

skpanda

08-02-2011, 03:06 PM

The WSJ article (see Post 5411 by KD2008) and the USCIS FAQ (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36456) is not very clear yet.

But I guess.. reason why this can be a separate channel than porting for EB3 friends is -

An EB3 applicant who qualifies for a EB2 category (Advanced degree/Speciality skills) does not need have an employer file again from scratch in EB2 and use AC21 for porting. They can self petition in EB2-Enterprenuor category.

The FAQs just say that the petition employer should have had a labor approved but does not specify if it has to be in EB2.

EB3 already have porting option to move to EB2 category. There is no reason to make thsi option look like a backdoor entry for EB3 alone.

nayekal

08-02-2011, 03:08 PM

It might look silly, but almost 2 weeks ago early in the morning I had a dream, where the Sept VB has a date of Dec 2007. Sorry I didn't dream or I don't remember the exact date.

But, mostly my early morning dreams come true and thought of sharing, but felt like it is silly to share some thing like this.

But, when I see these predictions, my dream is not at all silly and might be true as well.

natvyas

08-02-2011, 03:12 PM

Your statement cracked me up !!!

Thanks for that.

skpanda

08-02-2011, 03:13 PM

Amen..

That will be relief to people who have missed the July 2007 boat by few months and we can get rid of PWMB variable.

It might look silly, but almost 2 weeks ago early in the morning I had a dream, where the Sept VB has a date of Dec 2007. Sorry I didn't dream or I don't remember the exact date.

But, mostly my early morning dreams come true and thought of sharing, but felt like it is silly to share some thing like this.

But, when I see these predictions, my dream is not at all silly and might be true as well.

familyguy

08-02-2011, 03:17 PM

Can u dream that dates would move till Jan 15 2008 :D

It might look silly, but almost 2 weeks ago early in the morning I had a dream, where the Sept VB has a date of Dec 2007. Sorry I didn't dream or I don't remember the exact date.

But, mostly my early morning dreams come true and thought of sharing, but felt like it is silly to share some thing like this.

But, when I see these predictions, my dream is not at all silly and might be true as well.

leo07

08-02-2011, 03:19 PM

I'm glad we stopped it, I didn't expect it to discuss, just random predictions.:)

I reality, most of the predictions on the list are backed up by data. Either on this forum or some other forum

you are right... i was about to mention that... this site is more of predictions with backed up numerical calculations...

TeddyKoochu

08-02-2011, 03:22 PM

raj888

08-02-2011, 03:23 PM

Why isnt anyone talking about BTM anymore? If dates reach July 2007 (in Sep VB), doesnt it mean all backlog will be cleared? I am just wondering when my Sep 24th 2007 date will be eligible. Desperately waiting to apply for EAD.

I agree with the above question...same time last month we all were so much hopeful about BTM and dates moving to Q1/Q2 2008.. I guess a disappointing previous bulletin is leading for people to be more conservative....But the reasons everyone was giving last month for BTM is still valid

iamdeb

08-02-2011, 03:30 PM

Hi Gurus,

I have a question regarding the below scenario.
My I 140 is approved and I have stayed for more than 180 days with my employer A( who applied for my current PERM and I140).I get an offer from employer B who agrees to do my GC process. I know Employer B must start from stratch, however I will be able to carry my previous PD to the new GC Process.
In case employer A withdraws my GC application what will happen?Will I lose my PD which I had with employer A?
This is not case of porting but I just want to know if I can switch jobs?
I think AC21 portability applies only when I 485 has been filed.

Sorry for diverting from the topic, but I couldn't keep myself from asking here.

Thanks,
Deb

qblogfan

08-02-2011, 03:32 PM

I agree with you completely!

Our pie is already too small. Even with the current level of SOFAD, we still need to wait for years. I can't imagine how bad it can become if they add another group of people into the queue.

We have proposed many things to them including giving people EAD/AP, giving H4 EAD, etc. They didn't give a damn about these proposals. Now they are trying to squeeze more from EB2.

Friends I just went through all the details posted, neospeed thanks for the AILA doc. I agree almost completely with what Spec is saying. This is another classification in EB2, the usage will squarely depend on how the term entrepreneur is defined. If the definition is qualitative that this will increase EB2 usage quite a bit from the non retrogressed countries however if it is something as stringent as the Kazarian memo then they will only a few qualifying applicants. This visa seems to be more of a junior version to EB5; probably they realized that getting top level entrepreneurs and investors is hard so let’s get the next level. With the current situation for I/C the entrepreneurs from these countries are almost implicitly excluded because entrepreneurs do not wait for 5 years to realize their dreams they are impulsive enough to go after them ASAP. The trigger for this category may have been the urgency to create new jobs, most testimonies and articles are skewed to the fact that US is losing out on entrepreneurs more than anything most of us in regular high skilled jobs aka EB2 and EB3 do not figure that prominently so are either more easily dispensable or no real sadness in losing us. Coming to NIW it’s very hard to qualify for this anyway mostly it requires 10 years of work experience and the most common profession if I may say IT is almost excluded from the list. If implemented this will definitely reduce SOFAD (I can understand the concerns that many have expressed) which EB2 I/C have assumed to part of the process so in that respect it definitely does not augur well, I believe we all must accept SOFAD as a privilege than a given and respect it, no one knows how long the current levels can be sustained, this year definitely is the peak or is very close to it. Let’s wait and watch for details

qblogfan

08-02-2011, 03:34 PM

[QUOTE=meso129;6130]Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 1st 2007 (as pointed earlier, didn't Q say 1st week of July, i.e. 8th July?)
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007
skpanda -------- CURRENT
meso129--------Mar 1 2008
qblogfan--------April 15, 2008

qesehmk

08-02-2011, 03:36 PM

skpanda explained it well. The differnce is with the new option EB3 probably won't need to port at all. They can directly file as EB2 as long as they are otherwise qualified and can stay in the current job.

EB3 already have porting option to move to EB2 category. There is no reason to make thsi option look like a backdoor entry for EB3 alone.

The WSJ article (see Post 5411 by KD2008) and the USCIS FAQ (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36456) is not very clear yet.

But I guess.. reason why this can be a separate channel than porting for EB3 friends is -

An EB3 applicant who qualifies for a EB2 category (Advanced degree/Speciality skills) does not need have an employer file again from scratch in EB2 and use AC21 for porting. They can self petition in EB2-Enterprenuor category.

The FAQs just say that the petition employer should have had a labor approved but does not specify if it has to be in EB2.

It might look silly, but almost 2 weeks ago early in the morning I had a dream, where the Sept VB has a date of Dec 2007. Sorry I didn't dream or I don't remember the exact date.

But, mostly my early morning dreams come true and thought of sharing, but felt like it is silly to share some thing like this.

But, when I see these predictions, my dream is not at all silly and might be true as well.

Nayekal, I am a man of numbers ... but your post is so honest ... I really want to set all my rationality aside and hope that your dream come true!!

I agree with the above question...same time last month we all were so much hopeful about BTM and dates moving to Q1/Q2 2008.. I guess a disappointing previous bulletin is leading for people to be more conservative....But the reasons everyone was giving last month for BTM is still valid
BTM kind of started going off the table AFTER august bullein. See the trouble is .... if DoS sees 3K of demand which is worth of 1.5month for EB2IC then they can carry an entire year on that 3K and not have to move dates at all. Doesn't mean today BTM is completely ruled out. Only that it is not as strong possibility as many of us thought a few months back. Finally regardless where dates move, the dates must reach Q1 2008 by Q1 end of 2012. That is teh only way to ensure DoS has sufficient cases to approve during spillover season of 2012.

qesehmk

08-02-2011, 03:38 PM

PD stays but its a new GC application since 485 was not outstanding for 180 days.

Hi Gurus,

I have a question regarding the below scenario.
My I 140 is approved and I have stayed for more than 180 days with my employer A( who applied for my current PERM and I140).I get an offer from employer B who agrees to do my GC process. I know Employer B must start from stratch, however I will be able to carry my previous PD to the new GC Process.
In case employer A withdraws my GC application what will happen?Will I lose my PD which I had with employer A?
This is not case of porting but I just want to know if I can switch jobs?
I think AC21 portability applies only when I 485 has been filed.

Sorry for diverting from the topic, but I couldn't keep myself from asking here.

Thanks,
Deb

gchopeful123

08-02-2011, 03:40 PM

familyguy

08-02-2011, 03:49 PM

Secretary Napolitano Announces Initiatives to Promote Startup Enterprises and Spur Job Creation

http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/releases/20110802-napolitano-startup-job-creation-initiatives.shtm

cantwaitlonger

08-02-2011, 04:04 PM

The changes to the EB2 program feels like this: Its like the doctor is treating you for a common cold when you walk in to the emergency room with a gaping wound to your knee. Meanwhile, the hospital's PR is standing outside and assuring the media that everything is being taken care of.

ravisekhar

08-02-2011, 04:09 PM

Secretary Napolitano Announces Initiatives to Promote Startup Enterprises and Spur Job Creation

http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/releases/20110802-napolitano-startup-job-creation-initiatives.shtm

In response to stakeholder feedback, USCIS has also updated existing FAQs to clarify that an H-1B beneficiary who is the sole owner of the petitioning company may establish a valid employer-employee relationship for the purposes of qualifying for an H-1B nonimmigrant visa – which is used by U.S. businesses to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise in specialized fields, such as science, engineering, and computer programming.

Spectator

08-02-2011, 04:10 PM

It seems they have now added premium processing for EB1 - 140s - http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=971b60657dd68210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=db029c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRDssvp22,

Good spot.

I read it in the DHS article familyguy mentioned.

USCIS has also announced the expansion of its Premium Processing Service to immigrant petitions for multinational executives and managers (often referred to as "E13"). The Premium Processing Service allows employers to expedite processing of their petitions, absent evidentiary deficiencies, fraud or national security concerns.

The USCIS page doesn't seem to have been updated yet.

That will be yet another factor that could lead to more EB1 approvals in FY2012, since to date EB1-C, accounting for 50% of EB1 approvals, was not eligible for PP.

nishant2200

08-02-2011, 04:30 PM

I guess the second H1 extension for 3 years I got this year, will come good for me after all, reading all the stuff today :)

leo07

08-02-2011, 04:40 PM

Instead of dealing with the problem head-on, this administration is looking to induce steroids so that the employment-numbers look good come election-year. It'll backfire big time.

Because potential fraud over-weighs the benefit at this point. Since there is already a category for the same and genuine people who would have filed in that category would have already filed anyways, but the new folks are those switching from other EB categories trying to look genuine. Which in itself is a recipe for disaster.

nishant2200

08-02-2011, 04:57 PM

In response to stakeholder feedback, USCIS has also updated existing FAQs to clarify that an H-1B beneficiary who is the sole owner of the petitioning company may establish a valid employer-employee relationship for the purposes of qualifying for an H-1B nonimmigrant visa – which is used by U.S. businesses to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise in specialized fields, such as science, engineering, and computer programming.

good find ravisekhar

fraud alert bells...ding ding

bieber

08-02-2011, 05:05 PM

The unemployment report due this friday must be terrible, it will be atleast or more than 9.2%

high time adminstration to do things that actually work, not the campaign tools/promises. With the exisintg policies current businesses are not hiring and govt welcomes new businesses to create jobs, r u kidding me dear *****

qblogfan

08-02-2011, 05:06 PM

These government officials never experienced the pain of EB2/3 CI.

Put them into our situation and let them face ten years of waiting, full of risk and uncertainty.

These people never really cared about us. They just want to work with the employers and get more juice from us.

Enough is enough. Many people have worked for them for a decade. How much more juice do they want from us?

They are supposed to reduce the backlog of CI EB2/3 backlog, but on the contrary, they want to add more people into the pie.

It's shocking to know they want to put this s**t on us again.

Instead of dealing with the problem head-on, this administration is looking to induce steroids so that the employment-numbers look good come election-year. It'll backfire big time.

Because potential fraud over-weighs the benefit at this point. Since there is already a category for the same and genuine people who would have filed in that category would have already filed anyways, but the new folks are those switching from other EB categories trying to look genuine. Which in itself is a recipe for disaster.

murali83

08-02-2011, 05:23 PM

veni001

08-02-2011, 05:55 PM

My take on this new initiative is not to read too much into it. I mean how many people will really qualify under the broad terms described there is for anyone to guess. IMHO, it is going to be as difficult as a self petition in EB1 category.

murali83,
Agree, in-addition applicant need to prove NIW.

We will get a better picture once guidelines are released by USCIS, till then we are good to go with our predictions.

mesan123

08-02-2011, 06:05 PM

Can any guru please tell us, with this new catogery, will visa numbers be allocated from current 140K visa's and is this visa class same as EB2 NIW, who will get first the spill over before EB2???

Will this Even Delay the regular EB2/3 (India & China) catogeries even more..

And also will the people who file in this category will have better luck as there dates will be CURRENT !!!!!!!!!! :(

murali83,
Agree, in-addition applicant need to prove NIW.

We will get a better picture once guidelines are released by USCIS, till then we are good to go with our predictions.

nishant2200

08-02-2011, 06:16 PM

This is my take:

- 140k remains as it is
- I am calling this category EB2-ENT (ent for entrepreneur)
- Since it is still second preference, it is not higher in preference to existing EB2, folks from I/C are still screwed even if they get into this EB2-ENT category, with regards to place in queue.

Can any guru please tell us, with this new catogery, will visa numbers be allocated from current 140K visa's and is this visa class same as EB2 NIW, who will get first the spill over before EB2???

Will this Even Delay the regular EB2/3 (India & China) catogeries even more..

And also will the people who file in this category will have better luck as there dates will be CURRENT !!!!!!!!!! :(

mesan123

08-02-2011, 06:24 PM

It really SUCKS big time.....

This is my take:

- 140k remains as it is
- I am calling this category EB2-ENT (ent for entrepreneur)
- Since it is still second preference, it is not higher in preference to existing EB2, folks from I/C are still screwed even if they get into this EB2-ENT category, with regards to place in queue.

victorian

08-02-2011, 06:27 PM

PlainSpeak

08-02-2011, 06:29 PM

skpanda explained it well. The differnce is with the new option EB3 probably won't need to port at all. They can directly file as EB2 as long as they are otherwise qualified and can stay in the current job.

Nayekal, I am a man of numbers ... but your post is so honest ... I really want to set all my rationality aside and hope that your dream come true!!

BTM kind of started going off the table AFTER august bullein. See the trouble is .... if DoS sees 3K of demand which is worth of 1.5month for EB2IC then they can carry an entire year on that 3K and not have to move dates at all. Doesn't mean today BTM is completely ruled out. Only that it is not as strong possibility as many of us thought a few months back. Finally regardless where dates move, the dates must reach Q1 2008 by Q1 end of 2012. That is teh only way to ensure DoS has sufficient cases to approve during spillover season of 2012.

Ok i am in EB3 and I cannot port to EB2 because
1. I have 3 years bachelors degree
2. No company wants to file for GC .

Lost some offers because i am on EAD and not GC because company does not want to involve in the AC21 process at all.

Now i got another offer which will consider EAD and provide AC21 supporting document but will not do EB2.

Now i have 12 years of experience working in companies as an employee all this time. How can this new law help me an EB3.

ssvp22

08-02-2011, 06:31 PM

Spec

Any idea about EB2-ENT NIW applications having to go through country quota? Or are they waived?

natvyas

08-02-2011, 06:48 PM

I think the premium processing of I-140 for EB1 folks Is more harmful for us than the creation of this new category.

The only thing that can help us in 2012 is slowing down of the economy

Regards
Nat

PS we are screwed !!!!!

ssvp22,

Good spot.

I read it in the DHS article familyguy mentioned.

The USCIS page doesn't seem to have been updated yet.

That will be yet another factor that could lead to more EB1 approvals in FY2012, since to date EB1-C, accounting for 50% of EB1 approvals, was not eligible for PP.

leo07

08-02-2011, 06:56 PM

The law is not clear yet. It could take any where between 6-12 months, if there are no cases to be filed against CIS for violating some rule already.

As of now with the information that's out, it appears that you can start your own company and potentially file for your own EB2 application with your experience to backup any claims. Which wasn't the case before. Obviously, it'll all depend on your ability to "prove" to CIS that you really are helping US.

My 2 cents worth

Ok i am in EB3 and I cannot port to EB2 because
1. I have 3 years bachelors degree
2. No company wants to file for GC .

Lost some offers because i am on EAD and not GC because company does not want to involve in the AC21 process at all.

Now i got another offer which will consider EAD and provide AC21 supporting document but will not do EB2.

Now i have 12 years of experience working in companies as an employee all this time. How can this new law help me an EB3.

mesan123

08-02-2011, 06:58 PM

I think both the changes will defnitely have more effect on US..... Hoping atleast they use the unused visa's now or else it is really putting us in shit hole....where people like me with priority date in 2011 will have to wait for 10 more years...

Already had one bad luck this year where i could not port my 2009 date as i dont have copy of previous 140( as my previous employer doesnt wnat to share as i left the company) or even the A number so that port it.... :(

I think the premium processing of I-140 for EB1 folks Is more harmful for us than the creation of this new category.

The only thing that can help us in 2012 is slowing down of the economy

Regards
Nat

PS we are screwed !!!!!

nishant2200

08-02-2011, 07:01 PM

nnnnn123, you can request a copy of your approved I-140, A number, all that. just google search USCIS FOIA, and it will take you to USCIS links for FOIA. It will take sometime, but you will get them. The procedure is you apply first, they examine request, and get back to you within 30 days I believe about what the fees will be, then you pay the fees, and they further do the processing. the website indicates how much time it takes, what priority your application gets etc.

At least you will be in 2009 then...

I think both the changes will defnitely have more effect on US..... Hoping atleast they use the unused visa's now or else it is really putting us in shit hole....where people like me with priority date in 2011 will have to wait for 10 more years...

Already had one bad luck this year where i could not port my 2009 date as i dont have copy of previous 140( as my previous employer doesnt wnat to share as i left the company) or even the A number so that port it.... :(

mesan123

08-02-2011, 07:07 PM

Thank you nishant...hope i can get the results.....Thank you somuch once again....

one question here. i left my previous company when my i-140 was pending? i can port my 140 if it is approved right? i couldnot get answer form previous employer whether it is approved or not also, as he is not willing to disclose anything

nnnnn123, you can request a copy of your approved I-140, A number, all that. just google search USCIS FOIA, and it will take you to USCIS links for FOIA. It will take sometime, but you will get them. The procedure is you apply first, they examine request, and get back to you within 30 days I believe about what the fees will be, then you pay the fees, and they further do the processing. the website indicates how much time it takes, what priority your application gets etc.

At least you will be in 2009 then...

nishant2200

08-02-2011, 07:23 PM

Yes you can port as long as it is approved or even cancelled but not cancelled due to fraud.

Second, some service center, I forget which one, has electronic handling of A numbers, so if your first 140 was with them, and second one also goes to them, they automatically, based on same A number, give you the older PD. I forget which service center does that, maybe someone on the forum knows. I think that's the future, all service centers will get there. A Number is assigned only once to an alien, and you will retain it forever.

Did you by any chance have OPT if you studied here, if you did, you would have got EAD, and that EAD has an A Number, so your A number would be the same on your 140s also.

mesan123

08-02-2011, 07:41 PM

Thank you nishant for detailed message...no i was not in OPT. on work visa for last 5 years. My lawyer when i filled my 140 with current employer asked whether i have 140 copy or A number. i told i have none....so anyway will track the way you mentioned...i just pray my previous employer didnt revoke it before it got approved...fingers crossed...

Yes you can port as long as it is approved or even cancelled but not cancelled due to fraud.

Second, some service center, I forget which one, has electronic handling of A numbers, so if your first 140 was with them, and second one also goes to them, they automatically, based on same A number, give you the older PD. I forget which service center does that, maybe someone on the forum knows. I think that's the future, all service centers will get there. A Number is assigned only once to an alien, and you will retain it forever.

Did you by any chance have OPT if you studied here, if you did, you would have got EAD, and that EAD has an A Number, so your A number would be the same on your 140s also.

veni001

08-02-2011, 07:42 PM

I think the premium processing of I-140 for EB1 folks Is more harmful for us than the creation of this new category.

The only thing that can help us in 2012 is slowing down of the economy

Regards
Nat

PS we are screwed !!!!!

natvyas,
It could be in the short-term, but in the long-run other things will play a bigger role....in determining Spillover from EB1

1. EB1-demand itself (increase/decrease from FY2011 level)
2. EB1 Approval/denial ratio ( in light of increased scrutiny)
3. Economy..etc

nishant2200

08-02-2011, 07:42 PM

No EB2 approvals in trackitt so far for August. Guys you seen any news anywhere else, someone getting approved.

Spectator

08-02-2011, 07:45 PM

Spec

Any idea about EB2-ENT NIW applications having to go through country quota? Or are they waived?ssvp22,

I will say with 99.99999% certainty that these will be treated exactly the same as any other EB2, whether it be an EB2 sponsored by a start-up company or a self petitioned NIW.

A law change is required to create a new category, add visas or exempt anything from numerical limits of any kind, be it the overall numbers or the per Country limits. That is beyond the powers of USCIS.

This is just clarification that entrepreneurs may apply under EB2. Unless they are applying under Exceptional Ability, the need for an Advanced Degree or equivalent is the same.

Call me cynical, but I think the announcement has more to do with

These actions mark the six-month anniversary of Startup America, a White House-led initiative to reduce barriers and accelerate growth for America's job-creating entrepreneurs. They have also been one key focus of the President's Council on Jobs and Competitiveness, which has recommended taking action to help ensure that America can out-innovate and out-compete the world in a global economy.
http://www.dhs.gov/ynews/releases/20110802-napolitano-startup-job-creation-initiatives.shtm

and the subject being the flavor of the month, than any real attempt to make things any better for anyone.

DHS just wants to look good and suck up to the President.

GCFresher

08-02-2011, 07:54 PM

skpanda explained it well. The differnce is with the new option EB3 probably won't need to port at all. They can directly file as EB2 as long as they are otherwise qualified and can stay in the current job.

Nayekal, I am a man of numbers ... but your post is so honest ... I really want to set all my rationality aside and hope that your dream come true!!

BTM kind of started going off the table AFTER august bullein. See the trouble is .... if DoS sees 3K of demand which is worth of 1.5month for EB2IC then they can carry an entire year on that 3K and not have to move dates at all. Doesn't mean today BTM is completely ruled out. Only that it is not as strong possibility as many of us thought a few months back. Finally regardless where dates move, the dates must reach Q1 2008 by Q1 end of 2012. That is teh only way to ensure DoS has sufficient cases to approve during spillover season of 2012.

Q, Are you saying that there is a possiblity of PD not moving at all from Apr 15 2007 in september

natvyas

08-02-2011, 07:55 PM

In this economy It's difficult to find an employer who would pay for green card let alone finding an investor in ones idea

However, the premium processing for EB1 folks is going to be painful

nishant2200

08-02-2011, 07:56 PM

Spec, this also means that many things are up-to will and discretion of the administration, the elements in power.

Something like making dates Current every few years by citing some need, is not all that impossible, if there is the will.

Something like providing EAD to H4.

For instance, they happily made OPT more than 2 years, and expanded the eligible STEM areas, just like that.

victorian

08-02-2011, 07:56 PM

You missed my post! I got an approval email!

No EB2 approvals in trackitt so far for August. Guys you seen any news anywhere else, someone getting approved.

Guys, I just got a status update e-mail with status "Card Document/Production" status. PD- Mar 09, 2007. However, there is a slight twist in the tale. I changed my address a couple of days ago and called them to verify the change. Level 1 said that my document has been mailed out and transferred me to Level 2 to get my tracking number. Level 2 confirmed the address change, but said that my I-485 has not been approved. The online status says the same thing as the e-mail.

Is there any cause for concern that this might be a tech glitch with USCIS?

veni001

08-02-2011, 07:57 PM

ssvp22,

I will say with 99.99999% certainty that these will be treated exactly the same as any other EB2, whether it be an EB2 sponsored by a start-up company or a self petitioned NIW.

A law change is required to create a new category, add visas or exempt anything from numerical limits of any kind, be it the overall numbers or the per Country limits. That is beyond the powers of USCIS.

This is just clarification that entrepreneurs may apply under EB2. Unless they are applying under Exceptional Ability, the need for an Advanced Degree or equivalent is the same.

Call me cynical, but I think the announcement has more to do with

and the subject being the flavor of the month, than any real attempt to make things any better for anyone.

DHS just wants to look good and suck up to the President.

Spec

Any idea about EB2-ENT NIW applications having to go through country quota? Or are they waived?

ssvp22,
I agree with Spec, Only difference i could see between EB2-entrepreneur, when implemented, and EB5 is that EB5 require capital investment.

bestin

08-02-2011, 08:38 PM

My chip is also on 1ST week of JULY 2007...for sep bulletin
As per the recent posting in "us non immigrant blog" the eb1 demand for this year is 26301 which closely matches our 27k approx.However this figure was based on extrapolation of data from 9.5 months in the former's case .ie 8712* 2.39(INCLUDING DEPENDENTS)*12/9.5...I believe that with the processing times of eb1 and taking this into consideration the premium cases it is better to multiply it by 10.5 for the demand this year instead of 12. ie 8700*2.39*10.5/9.5 which is approx 23k.Total available =40000-23000=17000-12000(already allocated)=5000 approx which makes me think that dates would move to first week of july 2010.

ssvp22

08-02-2011, 08:53 PM

ssvp22,

I will say with 99.99999% certainty that these will be treated exactly the same as any other EB2, whether it be an EB2 sponsored by a start-up company or a self petitioned NIW.

A law change is required to create a new category, add visas or exempt anything from numerical limits of any kind, be it the overall numbers or the per Country limits. That is beyond the powers of USCIS.

This is just clarification that entrepreneurs may apply under EB2. Unless they are applying under Exceptional Ability, the need for an Advanced Degree or equivalent is the same.

Call me cynical, but I think the announcement has more to do with

and the subject being the flavor of the month, than any real attempt to make things any better for anyone.

DHS just wants to look good and suck up to the President.

Thank you for the response spec. I agree with you on the "suck up to the President". If you look at the words "Entrepreneur will be working for a U.S. employer who files a petition on the entrepreneur’s behalf", i cant make sense of them in any fashion. How can an Entrepreneur be employed with someone else? This clause in itself is going to cause the complete program to fail. All this seems to be similar to the trick a lazy developer will pull off in front of his manager - see i said you, this is not going to work.

Or maybe i am hung up on the words while they mean something else.

Spectator

08-02-2011, 09:14 PM

Guys, I just got a status update e-mail with status "Card Document/Production" status. PD- Mar 09, 2007. However, there is a slight twist in the tale. I changed my address a couple of days ago and called them to verify the change. Level 1 said that my document has been mailed out and transferred me to Level 2 to get my tracking number. Level 2 confirmed the address change, but said that my I-485 has not been approved. The online status says the same thing as the e-mail.

Is there any cause of concern that this might be a tech glitch with USCIS?victorian,

I did see your post, but I have been holding off on the congratulations because of your twist in the tale, particularly since you also said you have had an address change.

If the "Card Document/Production" status explanation said "On August 02, 2011, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you."

then it will be an approval.

If it said "On August 02, 2011 we mailed the document to the address we have on file. You should receive the new document within 30 days."

then it is likely only a confirmation of the address change.

Can you confirm what the text said?

Spectator

08-02-2011, 09:18 PM

This is curious. Now, my status has gone back to "Decision" from "Document/Card Production"

Here is the text -

On August 2, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status. Please follow any instructions on the notice. Your new permanent resident card should be mailed within 60 days following this registration or after you complete any ADIT processing referred to in the welcome notice, whichever is later.
During this step the formal decision (approved/denied) is written and the decision notice is mailed and/or emailed to the applicant/petitioner. You can use our current processing time to gauge when you can expect to receive a final decision.

I guess this means that my case is still not approved? Anyone have any insight?victorian,

We were obviously typing at the same time! My last post now seems fairly redundant.

Many congratulations!!

The status bouncing around seems very common - don't worry about it - you are definitely green.

PS I know that is easy for me to say. You must be so excited.

victorian

08-02-2011, 09:28 PM

Thanks Teddy and Spectator! LOL. The last paragraph completely reinforced my naturally pessimistic leanings. Wish all of you guys the very best of luck! I would pray, but being an atheist, my prayers might just not find a sympathetic ear.

victorian,

We were obviously typing at the same time! My last post now seems fairly redundant.

Many congratulations!!

The status bouncing around seems very common - don't worry about it - you are definitely green.

PS I know that is easy for me to say. You must be so excited.

TeddyKoochu

08-02-2011, 09:31 PM

Friends both the news from Today will be headwinds for SOFAD.

1) The entrepreneur category is a great avenue for inviting and giving a chance to good and deserving people to get GC. From the SOFAD purpose though it increases ROW consumption and hence will surely reduce SOFAD, it will really depend on how effective this new sub - category will be and how much traction it will attract. This category is like Eb5 junior.

2) Resumption of EB1 premium processing, I remember Spec's 15 month analogy, this year we enjoyed the SOFAD due to slower pace, next year might well be backlog alleviation + back to regular pace so it will be significantly less SOFAD it is almost like debt payment time. I think there will be huge money to cash in by premium processing.
These developments must be being planned at the time of the Aug bulletin, they kind of reinforce the fact that Sep nay not be very optimistic. Also if both 1 & 2 take place they will significantly reduce the chance of BTM happening before May 2012 if it does not happen in Sep 2011.

snathan

08-02-2011, 09:38 PM

The USCIS FAQ have been updated (LUD 08/02) to include the enterpreneur category. So looks like this has been implemented right away.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=93da6b814ba81310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=6abe6d26d17df110VgnVCM1000004718190a RCRD

They will implement everything right away, if it will screw the IC category. But they are talking about allowing people to file I-485 when PD is not current for couple of years now...but still talking.

TeddyKoochu

08-02-2011, 09:41 PM

snathan

08-02-2011, 09:42 PM

veni001

08-02-2011, 09:46 PM

ssvp22,
I agree with Spec, Only difference i could see between EB2-entrepreneur, when implemented, and EB5 is that EB5 require capital investment.

They will implement everything right away, if it will screw the IC category. But they are talking about allowing people to file I-485 when PD is not current for couple of years now...but still talking.

snathan,
Even if they implement this right away, i would assume the new EB2-entrepreneur(s) from I&C should wait in the line, unless they have earlier PD from an approved EB3 application!

TeddyKoochu

08-02-2011, 10:00 PM

Ok i am in EB3 and I cannot port to EB2 because
1. I have 3 years bachelors degree
2. No company wants to file for GC .

Lost some offers because i am on EAD and not GC because company does not want to involve in the AC21 process at all.

Now i got another offer which will consider EAD and provide AC21 supporting document but will not do EB2.

Now i have 12 years of experience working in companies as an employee all this time. How can this new law help me an EB3.

Besides this new rule there are ways you can try results are not guaranteed however all that will be lost is money only, if successful the outcome is priceless.

Refer to the following article on Murthy - http://www.murthy.com/news/ukmurtak.html

People with 3 year degrees only (Iam not sure if you have another degree after that in that case you should be good) can give it a try to apply in EB2. With your 12 years of experience its worth a try in Exceptional Ability Group (This is different from US masters or BS + 5), if your experience was anything less than 8-10 years the case would be likely denied for sure. All depends on how well the attorney can make a case. Try doing credits from any accredited university to cover the additional credits to make it equivalent to a 4 years US degree, followed by an educational evaluation. After that it should be very easy to get EB2. One of my colleagues had a EB3 PD of Sep 2002 unfortunately his I140 was denied in Oct 2007, now his PD is Dec 2007 EB3 and he is trying this way out.

mesan123

08-02-2011, 10:05 PM

Thank you Teddy for your reply....i dont have receipt number...so will follow the path nishant mentioned...

AFAIK you can port your date if your i140 is approved if it is revoked after its approved its fine, it should not be withdrawn before approval. If you have the receipt number you can track it yourself. FOIA is the way to go as Nishant has suggested.

TeddyKoochu

08-02-2011, 10:09 PM

Ok i am in EB3 and I cannot port to EB2 because
1. I have 3 years bachelors degree
2. No company wants to file for GC .

Lost some offers because i am on EAD and not GC because company does not want to involve in the AC21 process at all.

Now i got another offer which will consider EAD and provide AC21 supporting document but will not do EB2.

Now i have 12 years of experience working in companies as an employee all this time. How can this new law help me an EB3.

Besides this new rule there are ways you can try results are not guaranteed however all that will bee lost is money only, if successful the outcome is priceless.

Refer to the following article on Murthy - http://www.murthy.com/news/ukmurtak.html

People with 3 year degrees only (Iam not sure if you have another degree after that in that case you should be good) can give it a try to apply in EB2. With your 12 years of experience its worth a try in Exceptional Ability Group, if your experience was anything less than 8-10 years the case would be likely denied for sure. All depends on how well the attorney can make a case. Try doing credits from any accredited university to cover the additional credits to make it equivalent to a 4 years US degree, followed by an educational evaluation. After that it should be very easy to get EB2. One of my colleagues had a EB3 PD of Sep 2002 unfortunately his I140 was denied in Oct 2007, now his PD is Dec 2007 EB3 and he is trying this way out.

TeddyKoochu

08-02-2011, 10:18 PM

May be, USCIS delayed the EB1 I-140 on purpose?

In reality really it’s the tough interpretation of the Kazarian memo that caused the delay. However bigger the delay more likely the applicants will go for premium, good for the applicant (lets be happy for all legal immigrants) as an avenue to speed it up, money for the agencies to do their great job faster, apologies to SOFAD :)

They will implement everything right away, if it will screw the IC category. But they are talking about allowing people to file I-485 when PD is not current for couple of years now...but still talking.
Many of us waited for this kind of relief; sadly we must accept that this moved to the next level. There were talks of pre-registration many times it never took off. Lets hope for BTM in September else its next year in May.

qesehmk

08-02-2011, 10:53 PM

Q, Are you saying that there is a possiblity of PD not moving at all from Apr 15 2007 in september
Not at all. If there is BTM it would be in addition to the SFM of July 8th, 2007 in the Sep Bulletin.
p.s. - Yes, I am suggesting Jul 8th rather than 1st.

In this economy It's difficult to find an employer who would pay for green card let alone finding an investor in ones idea
However, the premium processing for EB1 folks is going to be painful
natvyas that's fortunately so untrue. Finding investor is actually very very easy. Having an idea is somewhat difficult. But more difficult is creating financially viable plan, the associated business model and then creating a prototype and finally proving that somebody will actually buy it. Not all investors would require all of it. But if you can do all of it then in all likelihood you will find more than one investors ready to fund your idea.

....
On August 2, 2011, we mailed you a notice that we had registered this customer's new permanent resident status.
...
I guess this means that my case is still not approved? Anyone have any insight?
There you go! Thats the decision in your favor! Congrats.

Lets hope for BTM in September else its next year in May.
Teddy I am going to be in strong disagreement over this statement. I would suggest try working backwords from 2012 Spillover Season. How much will be the SOFAD - best and worst case? If that were to be fully utilized then how many new cases should be in and by what timeline they should be in to fully utilize SOFAD? The answers to these questions point to Q1 or 2012 as the latest by which any BTM must occur.

TeddyKoochu

08-02-2011, 11:49 PM

Teddy I am going to be in strong disagreement over this statement. I would suggest try working backwords from 2012 Spillover Season. How much will be the SOFAD - best and worst case? If that were to be fully utilized then how many new cases should be in and by what timeline they should be in to fully utilize SOFAD? The answers to these questions point to Q1 or 2012 as the latest by which any BTM must occur.

Q let me explain this in greater detail.
- In September 2011 there are no quarterly restrictions in place so BTM could be as large as this years SOFAD to have a good buffer.
- Today we have had 2 inputs a) EB2 investor via b) I140 premium for Eb1. Both these factors especially the premium processing will give a huge boost to Eb1 processing. With this Q1 may not yield Eb1 SOFAD because of the backlog and newer cases coming much faster.
- Now it may only be in Q2 that some SOFAD is generated, refer to Specs analogy I think it may be fair to say that this was a 9 month year for Eb1 and next year may well be a 15 month year because of the I140 acceleration. So even at the end of Q2 we may not have that large a SOFAD, Eb1 using most of its cap.
- Probably by May there will be BTM it will be further diminished by porting as newer cases will come in. We have seen that newly filed cases are getting approved in 4 months almost consistently so May is really not late.
So in theory its really Sep 2011 or May 2012 (Diminished BTM). Also if 20K is the lower end of SOFAD expected next year then BTM if it happens in May when DOS has all the visibility may not be much. The push on I140 is good for all EB1 applicants happening at a very bad time atleast for SOFAD, we should accept it as part of streamlining and improvement though.

Pdmar08

08-03-2011, 12:44 AM

this didnt gain much ground but this idea was floated a couple of years ago. See the story on NPR http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=103769788

This is the first time I am hearing about this suggestion. I think it will be good if implemented. But there is a possibility that everyone in line for GC goes and buys a home just to get exempt from the quota. It does require to have a good credit history which may eliminate a few people new to the country.

qesehmk

08-03-2011, 06:43 AM

Teddy

Thanks. I dont disagree w all these things. But try working with numbers and work it backwords starting with 2012 spillover season.
Even if we go with 20K sofad calculations will look as follows:

20 k = leftover till Aug 2007 + pwmb + porting + 2 X M

where M = months beyond and including August

20 = 3 + (3+3) + 2 X M

so M = 5.5 months

That brings us to Mid January 2008

So if USCIS needs to clear a case in January, when should they have that case in? I think India/China and ROW have different standardsfor 485 processing. 6-9 months is minimum. Even if you go with 6 months, it means by end of Q2 i.e. Mar 2012 - Mid Jan 2008 has to be reached.

If USCIS does that then they are left with Zero cases in their hopper in Sep 2012 unless they move another couple of months between May - Sep 2012.

In my judgement they wont move so much on the edge of knife! At all times they would want to maintain a healthy buffer or work in progress inventory. Thats why rather than mid Jan 2008, the movement should at least be till Mar 2008 for EB2IC by Mar 2012.

Q let me explain this in greater detail.
- In September 2011 there are no quarterly restrictions in place so BTM could be as large as this years SOFAD to have a good buffer.
- Today we have had 2 inputs a) EB2 investor via b) I140 premium for Eb1. Both these factors especially the premium processing will give a huge boost to Eb1 processing. With this Q1 may not yield Eb1 SOFAD because of the backlog and newer cases coming much faster.
- Now it may only be in Q2 that some SOFAD is generated, refer to Specs analogy I think it may be fair to say that this was a 9 month year for Eb1 and next year may well be a 15 month year because of the I140 acceleration. So even at the end of Q2 we may not have that large a SOFAD, Eb1 using most of its cap.
- Probably by May there will be BTM it will be further diminished by porting as newer cases will come in. We have seen that newly filed cases are getting approved in 4 months almost consistently so May is really not late.
So in theory its really Sep 2011 or May 2012 (Diminished BTM). Also if 20K is the lower end of SOFAD expected next year then BTM if it happens in May when DOS has all the visibility may not be much. The push on I140 is good for all EB1 applicants happening at a very bad time atleast for SOFAD, we should accept it as part of streamlining and improvement though.

Spectator

08-03-2011, 07:48 AM

T & Q,

This is a really interesting discussion you are having and you are both making extremely valid points.

I did think earlier that, with the numbers getting reasonably close to exhaustion, that September 2011 provided the perfect opportunity to advance the Cut Off Dates (COD) to bring in the next wave of applications.

The signs are that this opportunity is going to be wasted, despite the multiple advantages of doing so. Maybe we will still be surprised.

The fact that there are so many potential cases either just filed or that can be filed as the COD moves through July 2007 does complicate things, especially if we add on potential porting (although I don't think those numbers will be as large as some people suggest).

As for when BTM could happen - April at the earliest seems most likely to me. The reason I say that is that April is the first month of Q3, when the number of visas that can be used jumps from 54% to 81% of the total.

The other alternative would be to pseudo implement a quarterly spillover, something DOS has shied away from to date.

In hindsight, I wonder whether August/September 2008 represented BTM to pull in unfiled cases. The COD eventually moved to August 2006, having been April 2004 in July.

We didn't have Inventories in those days, but the first USCIS Inventories suggest that either large numbers of new cases with 2006 PDs were filed then, or that not many approvals were made for PDs in most of CY2006.

There doesn't appear to have been the prospect of enough visas being available to approve the number of existing cases to the end of July 2006, yet the COD was moved a very long way.

It seems such a wasted opportunity, if it doesn't happen in September. Possibly transparency is not always a good thing. These days we can estimate the numbers left and the Demand Data shows how unlikely there are to be sufficient numbers.

Nonetheless, I still believe the benefits of more transparency far out way any inadvertent down sides.

qesehmk

08-03-2011, 08:03 AM

Spec

As always you make some great points.

Let me start with #3. I think that is unlikely. A BTM by deifnition should be quick (and clean). Clean means one that doesn't disrupt FIFO process. Movement in Jul or August hardly fits the bill.

I do like number 1 and before we go there ... let me ask this ... the quarterly numbers you quote ... are they minimum that DoS must do. Or the max DoS could do? Secondly, is it by law or by discretion of DoS? Once we establish that then only we can speak of it intelligently.

As per #2, I think it is extremely hard to achieve this without great coordination between USCIS and DoS in terms of information sharing and policy objectives. I think the 2007 fiasco was a cat and mouse between DoS and USCIS. while data transparency has increased, if I were DoS why would I simply trust the data and run on the edge of knife and then be whacked by congress or whoever for failing to use the quota? I would rather always maintain a healthy buffer of cases w USCIS and make USCIS work hard.

....

1) As for when BTM could happen - April at the earliest seems most likely to me. The reason I say that is that April is the first month of Q3, when the number of visas that can be used jumps from 54% to 81% of the total.

2) The other alternative would be to pseudo implement a quarterly spillover, something DOS has shied away from to date.

3) In hindsight, I wonder whether August/September 2008 represented BTM to pull in unfiled cases. The COD eventually moved to August 2006, having been April 2004 in July.

gchopeful123

08-03-2011, 08:05 AM

Q,

Any news from your source, or is it too early to ask? Thanks!

imdeng

08-03-2011, 08:11 AM

imdeng

08-03-2011, 08:12 AM

and how is it that I have a higher reputation score (the green bars) than Q? :-)

qesehmk

08-03-2011, 08:15 AM

Yes. BTM matters in two ways: 1) it provides people some security w EAD/AC21 etc. 2) It improves the chances that SOFAD Will not be wasted.

Here is a silver lining if there is no BTM in Sept. If DOS does not build a sufficient pipeline, then we may find ourselves in a situation next Aug/Sept where we have visa numbers available for EB2IC but no qualified 485s to approve. This is a situation similar to 07/07 - either make the category current or increase PD by a long enough margin that CP cases cover the slack. No pipeline would mean a very interesting spillover season next year since I am confident that DOS/USCIS are not going to waste available EB2IC visa numbers - there will be too much hue and cry if that were to happen.

In any event, BTM doesn't really matter - SOFAD does. BTM is just a methodology for accommodating SOFAD. While BTM is important for people currently on the margins of PD since it gives you EAD/AP, it as such does not make any material long term difference to the EB2IC GC prospects.

qesehmk

08-03-2011, 08:19 AM

LoL!! I retrogressed!
and how is it that I have a higher reputations score (the green bars) than Q? :-)

imdeng

08-03-2011, 08:20 AM

That is my point - DOS/USCIS will try their best to NOT waste visa numbers - there is too much transparency in numbers to do that these days. So, assuming that visa numbers will not be wasted, no BTM increases the likelihood of something interesting happening next SOFAD season.

Yes. BTM matters in two ways: 1) it provides people some security w EAD/AC21 etc. 2) It improves the chances that SOFAD Will not be wasted.

indiasunil

08-03-2011, 08:26 AM

That is my point - DOS/USCIS will try their best to NOT waste visa numbers - there is too much transparency in numbers to do that these days. So, assuming that visa numbers will not be wasted, no BTM increases the likelihood of something interesting happening next SOFAD season.

If that is the case, DOS/USCIS will take huge intake(probably around mid of 2008) and will make retrogress in Oct. Bulletin.

Spectator

08-03-2011, 08:32 AM

Spec

As always you make some great points.

Let me start with #3. I think that is unlikely. A BTM by deifnition should be quick (and clean). Clean means one that doesn't disrupt FIFO process. Movement in Jul or August hardly fits the bill.I do think it was quick and clean. The dates advanced only in August/September 2008 and in October 2008 retrogressed to April 2003.

The fact that very few later cases appear to have been approved tends to say that FIFO was not disrupted. Rather, it was a ploy to allow filing. Maybe we differ on the definition of quick.

I do like number 1 and before we go there ... let me ask this ... the quarterly numbers you quote ... are they minimum that DoS must do. Or the max DoS could do? Secondly, is it by law or by discretion of DoS? Once we establish that then only we can speak of it intelligently.Really good questions. Answers in reverse order.

It is the law, as laid down in the INA. INA 201 (a)(2) says:

INA: ACT 201 - WORLDWIDE LEVEL OF IMMIGRATION

Sec. 201. [8 U.S.C. 1151]

(a) In general. - Exclusive of aliens described in subsection (b), aliens born in a foreign state or dependent area who may be issued immigrant visas or who may otherwise acquire the status of an alien lawfully admitted to the United States for permanent residence are limited to-

(2) employment-based immigrants described in section 203(b) (or who are admitted under section 211(a) on the basis of a prior issuance of a visa to their accompanying parent under section 203(b) ), in a number not to exceed in any fiscal year the number specified in subsection (d) for that year, and not to exceed in any of the first 3 quarters of any fiscal year 27 percent of the worldwide level under such subsection for all of such fiscal year;

It represents a maximum and there is no corresponding minimum that must be allocated. The maximum is calculated on the total EB allocation and does not have to be prorated for individual Categories or Countries.

As per #2, I think it is extremely hard to achieve this without great coordination between USCIS and DoS in terms of information sharing and policy objectives. I think the 2007 fiasco was a cat and mouse between DoS and USCIS. while data transparency has increased, if I were DoS why would I simply trust the data and run on the edge of knife and then be whacked by congress or whoever for failing to use the quota? I would rather always maintain a healthy buffer of cases w USCIS and make USCIS work hard.

I agree. Ultimately, if USCIS request more visas than are available, DOS can stop issuing them. By all accounts, that happened last year in FB and the full quota was exhausted 2 weeks before the end of the FY. You won't find any disagreement from me on this point. I absolutely think they should have BTM in September.

Spectator

08-03-2011, 08:59 AM

Here is a silver lining if there is no BTM in Sept. If DOS does not build a sufficient pipeline, then we may find ourselves in a situation next Aug/Sept where we have visa numbers available for EB2IC but no qualified 485s to approve. This is a situation similar to 07/07 - either make the category current or increase PD by a long enough margin that CP cases cover the slack. No pipeline would mean a very interesting spillover season next year since I am confident that DOS/USCIS are not going to waste available EB2IC visa numbers - there will be too much hue and cry if that were to happen.

In any event, BTM doesn't really matter - SOFAD does. BTM is just a methodology for accommodating SOFAD. While BTM is important for people currently on the margins of PD since it gives you EAD/AP, it as such does not make any material long term difference to the EB2IC GC prospects.imdeng,

Good post.

A very good summation of what would have to happen in that situation. You clearly understand the ramifications of such a situation.

Making it Current or advancing a very long way at the end of the year would not generate any extra approvals and the visas would be wasted anyway.

I agree that DOS/USCIS will not allow that situation to happen. It would, in an instant, undo all the bridge building since 2007. I would imagine that DOS do now consult with USCIS on what production is possible.

I think that USCIS are quite capable of processing I-485 consistently in 4 months (or less) given the right motivation, so movement of COD in April/May gives enough time. As Q says, I think DOS would build some buffer into the numbers.

Movement in September 2011 would make these problems completely moot, which is why I had hoped for it so much.

ssvp22

08-03-2011, 09:21 AM

From Rajiv Khanna's blog (http://forums.immigration.com/entry.php?298-Important-updates-for-business-and-employment-based-immigration) on Entrepreneur Visa

"In response to stakeholder feedback, USCIS has also updated existing FAQs to clarify that an H-1B beneficiary who is the sole owner of the petitioning company may establish a valid employer-employee relationship for the purposes of qualifying for an H-1B nonimmigrant visa – which is used by U.S. businesses to employ foreign workers in specialty occupations that require theoretical or technical expertise in specialized fields, such as science, engineering, and computer programming."

qblogfan

08-03-2011, 10:06 AM

I hope they can BTM in September, but I doubt it.

Mr.CO does not want to build a pipeline and he wants to wait for the last minute to do it.

I will not be surprised if Mr.CO builds the pipeline in the last month.

imdeng,

Good post.

A very good summation of what would have to happen in that situation. You clearly understand the ramifications of such a situation.

Making it Current or advancing a very long way at the end of the year would not generate any extra approvals and the visas would be wasted anyway.

I agree that DOS/USCIS will not allow that situation to happen. It would, in an instant, undo all the bridge building since 2007. I would imagine that DOS do now consult with USCIS on what production is possible.

I think that USCIS are quite capable of processing I-485 consistently in 4 months (or less) given the right motivation, so movement of COD in April/May gives enough time. As Q says, I think DOS would build some buffer into the numbers.

Movement in September 2011 would make these problems completely moot, which is why I had hoped for it so much.

nishant2200

08-03-2011, 10:11 AM

There's one possibility which Q has mentioned earlier. About BTM in October. That also removes burden on USCIS to do additional work during the finishing stages of FY 2011.

I hope they can BTM in September, but I doubt it.

Mr.CO does not want to build a pipeline and he wants to wait for the last minute to do it.

I will not be surprised if Mr.CO builds the pipeline in the last month.

natvyas

08-03-2011, 10:12 AM

I hope they can BTM in September, but I doubt it.

Mr.CO does not want to build a pipeline and he wants to wait for the last minute to do it.

I will not be surprised if Mr.CO builds the pipeline in the last month.

If I'm not wrong the Mr. CO has mentioned that there will be movement once the date reaches Aug. Now the question is when will they reach Aug. Per the current calculations we'll hit June end by Sep 1 and then 1-2 weeks every month. Based on that we should see BTM or STM in first qtr next year.

nishant2200

08-03-2011, 10:16 AM

I see 3 EB2-I approvals in Trackitt for August. One of them has PD which was current in August Bulletin. this one has PD of 3/9/07, so maybe our Victorian itself.

I also see 1 EB2-C approval in August, but his PD was current as of July Bulletin.

One EB1-B approval in August, and no EB1-C (our favorite bashing category :) ) so far.

slow going so far from trackitt in first two days. although we should of course give people time to update their profiles. also just like last time, they maybe slow to begin, notifications maybe down again, and so on.

But they are working.

kd2008

08-03-2011, 10:20 AM

Q, any news from your source?

mesan123

08-03-2011, 10:28 AM

Does Q have source from USCIS ?????

Q, any news from your source?

kd2008

08-03-2011, 10:37 AM

No, not from USCIS.

neospeed

08-03-2011, 10:49 AM

soggadu

08-03-2011, 10:55 AM

Does Q have source from USCIS ?????

Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)

qblogfan

08-03-2011, 11:04 AM

One guy called USCIS and USCIS said that they are still working on the cases that became current in July. Because the number is huge, so they didn't finish processing yet. Several guys on mitbbs became current in July, but their cases are still pending.

I see 3 EB2-I approvals in Trackitt for August. One of them has PD which was current in August Bulletin. this one has PD of 3/9/07, so maybe our Victorian itself.

I also see 1 EB2-C approval in August, but his PD was current as of July Bulletin.

One EB1-B approval in August, and no EB1-C (our favorite bashing category :) ) so far.

slow going so far from trackitt in first two days. although we should of course give people time to update their profiles. also just like last time, they maybe slow to begin, notifications maybe down again, and so on.

But they are working.

gchopeful123

08-03-2011, 11:06 AM

Ajmeri Baba??? Lolz...I heard he resolves all life problems within 7 days!!!

Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)

ssvp22

08-03-2011, 11:27 AM

Ajmeri Baba??? Lolz...I heard he resolves all life problems within 7 days!!!

Prem Jyotish is another one. I could never figure out if he started off by solving "prem" related problems or that was his name ;)

Spectator

08-03-2011, 11:36 AM

There's one possibility which Q has mentioned earlier. About BTM in October. That also removes burden on USCIS to do additional work during the finishing stages of FY 2011.The problem with that is the potential outstanding cases left after the September VB.

If the Sept VB moves, say, to the end of June 2007, that leaves around 3.7k pre-adjudicated cases left plus any PWMB that become ready to adjudicate plus porting.

Moving the COD beyond August 15 2007 for BTM in October 2011, makes all those cases eligible for approval in October itself. That is around 70% of the initial 5,606 allocation to EB2-IC.

In Q1 only 27% of the overall EB total is available.

It isn't impossible, but it does have difficulties.

If the September VB can approach August 15 2007, or even late July 2007 then it becomes very possible. Both China and India have large numbers in July 2007.

That, at least, is my concern.

qesehmk

08-03-2011, 11:41 AM

qbf I was thinking about exactly the same thing yesterday and so I checked trackitt.
Here are some interesting things I found:

~900 YTD approved
~900 pending which are current
~500 pending from above were last updated prior to April 2011. (i.e. its possible they are already approved but never updated).

But still that leaves 400 EB2I cases that current as well as updated on trackitt in the last 3 months but are still pending!!!

In fact this statistics made me seriously think about what Spec suggested - "Was the movement in Jul / Aug BTM"???

That is too pessimistic a thought for now. I really don't know.

One guy called USCIS and USCIS said that they are still working on the cases that became current in July. Because the number is huge, so they didn't finish processing yet. Several guys on mitbbs became current in July, but their cases are still pending.

As per our source ...(its a california baba - one can say Kali Baba!!) he was in India until recently .... said was going to return first week of August. We will check w him late this week or early next week.

mesan123

08-03-2011, 11:45 AM

Shayad wo baba ap to nahi... :)

Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)

Monica12

08-03-2011, 11:47 AM

qbf I was thinking about exactly the same thing yesterday and so I checked trackitt.
Here are some interesting things I found:

~900 YTD approved
~900 pending which are current
~500 pending from above were last updated prior to April 2011. (i.e. its possible they are already approved but never updated).

]But still that leaves 400 EB2I cases that current as well as updated on trackitt in the last 3 months but are still pending!!!
In fact this statistics made me seriously think about what Spec suggested - "Was the movement in Jul / Aug BTM"??? [/B]
That is too pessimistic a thought for now. I really don't know.

As per our source ...(its a california baba - one can say Kali Baba!!) he was in India until recently .... said was going to return first week of August. We will check w him late this week or early next week.

Man.. that doesn't look good at all...:(
Q, hopefully, your source returns soon and can give us more info

qesehmk

08-03-2011, 12:02 PM

Spec

My bad. I didn't realize you were talking about Aug / Sep 2008. I thought you were talking about this Jul/Aug movement. As per 2008 I don't have any comments.

As per BTM - My "theory" is it should happen early in the year preferably Q1 or latest Q2. If its Q2 or Q3 then it might as well be SFM rather than BTM.
Thanks for the info on Min Max and Law. So in that case - I do like your suggestion about April May moevment. But then I would be worried about the ability to process intake that late in the year. So I do not know how they will sovle this problem.

We alread agree in terms of coordination between agencies and the difficulty in maintain sustained slow forward movement.

I do think it was quick and clean. The dates advanced only in August/September 2008 and in October 2008 retrogressed to April 2003.

The fact that very few later cases appear to have been approved tends to say that FIFO was not disrupted. Rather, it was a ploy to allow filing. Maybe we differ on the definition of quick.

Really good questions. Answers in reverse order.

It is the law, as laid down in the INA. INA 201 (a)(2) says:

It represents a maximum and there is no corresponding minimum that must be allocated. The maximum is calculated on the total EB allocation and does not have to be prorated for individual Categories or Countries.

I agree. Ultimately, if USCIS request more visas than are available, DOS can stop issuing them. By all accounts, that happened last year in FB and the full quota was exhausted 2 weeks before the end of the FY. You won't find any disagreement from me on this point. I absolutely think they should have BTM in September.

qesehmk

08-03-2011, 12:04 PM

I am sorry. Just a thought ... of course based on facts.
But there are some other good facts that run contrary to these facts. Basically the trackitt approved trend still points to a very favorable result i.e. clearing of all backlog till Jul 8th, 2007. Will post later in the day.

Man.. that doesn't look good at all...:(
Q, hopefully, your source returns soon and can give us more info

familyguy

08-03-2011, 12:15 PM

Guys, Instead of wondering how the dates will move post July/Aug 2007, is there a way to contact DOS asking them to explain their plans? Couple of days ago I sent an email to visabulletin@state.gov and so far I haven't received any reply yet.. Is there any other way to contact them?

victorian

08-03-2011, 12:24 PM

I see 3 EB2-I approvals in Trackitt for August. One of them has PD which was current in August Bulletin. this one has PD of 3/9/07, so maybe our Victorian itself.

Yup, that's me. Looks like I am the first one to be approved in Aug. I finished off half a bottle of Laphroaig yesterday and I am sitting bleary eyed in the office today and hoping nobody notices it :P

soggadu

08-03-2011, 12:29 PM

Shayad wo baba ap to nahi... :)

namakool!!!!!!!...amazon wale amazing baba...iss ko maaf kardo...bacha hein ji...theek se ek alphabet bhi nahi bol saktha... dekho naam mein kitne baar 'n' hein.. ;-) ....

nnnnnnn bhai... hum woh nahi hein jo aap samaj rahe ho...

soggadu

08-03-2011, 12:30 PM

Yup, that's me. Looks like I am the first one to be approved in Aug. I finished off half a bottle of Laphroaig yesterday and I am sitting bleary eyed in the office today and hoping nobody notices it :P

So you are the one who is saying YES to all the things in our business conference meeting without even thinking!!!!!!!!!!!!...

Congratz bhai...

mesan123

08-03-2011, 12:36 PM

Hum bhai nahi sir....gender change math karoo....

anyway is there a way to change your profile name????

namakool!!!!!!!...amazon wale amazing baba...iss ko maaf kardo...bacha hein ji...theek se ek alphabet bhi nahi bol saktha... dekho naam mein kitne baar 'n' hein.. ;-) ....

nnnnnnn bhai... hum woh nahi hein jo aap samaj rahe ho...

Monica12

08-03-2011, 12:39 PM

Hum bhai nahi sir....gender change math karoo....
nnnnnn behen... waise hi Sep VB ka itna confusion hai...now all this gender confusion also..;)

soggadu

08-03-2011, 12:41 PM

nnnnnn behen... waise hi Sep VB ka itna confusion hai...now all this gender confusion also..;)

abhi tak aap yehi pe hooo... javoo jaake september vaali line mein khada ho javoo.... move itttttt....

Monica12

08-03-2011, 12:47 PM

abhi tak aap yehi pe hooo... javoo jaake september vaali line mein khada ho javoo.... move itttttt....
Buddy, If I get current in September,I will find you and treat you and your wife to martinis and margaritas...:)
btw, I'm standing in the September line and waiting for Q's source to give us some good news

soggadu

08-03-2011, 12:48 PM

Hum bhai nahi sir....gender change math karoo....

woh toh mein waise bhi nahi kar saktha ji...bahut costly padegi....

cbpds1

08-03-2011, 12:54 PM

you made my day !!

Nah... he has a Baba in deep forests of amazon who predicts the number movement every time...;-)

srimurthy

08-03-2011, 01:08 PM

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?

gchopeful123

08-03-2011, 01:27 PM

We should officially name him "Source Baba"!!!

As per our source ...(its a california baba - one can say Kali Baba!!) he was in India until recently .... said was going to return first week of August. We will check w him late this week or early next week.

soggadu

08-03-2011, 01:32 PM

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?

murty garu... r u back from hibernation already? ... anyway check the facts and data section spec and veni has the perm numbers divided on monthly basis...

bieber

08-03-2011, 01:33 PM

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?

That's very good point, the overall new perms for fy2012 will be less than fy2010/fy2011 if not at the same level of fy2009, companies not hirings, no job growth, tougher immigration practices all lead to lower filings

bieber

08-03-2011, 01:34 PM

woh toh mein waise bhi nahi kar saktha ji...bahut costly padegi....

I keep away myself from posting on such replies to improve the signal but this is hilarious

vchirakala

08-03-2011, 01:38 PM

Hi Friends,

Please let me know when I can expect my PD to be current. Can it happen this year or do I have to wait for another 1 -2 years.

- VC

ssvp22

08-03-2011, 01:41 PM

Hi Friends,

Please let me know when I can expect my PD to be current. Can it happen this year or do I have to wait for another 1 -2 years.

- VC
My date is Oct 22 2007. Right now i am doubting if i will get through in 2012.

veni001

08-03-2011, 01:41 PM

Any chance with the economic condition as it was from 2008 to 2010, there are less PERM filing and PD dates moving faster from next year or so?

srimurthy,
You can chek PERM Certification Data (CY-FY Matrix) under FACTS AND DATA Section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI)

That's very good point, the overall new perms for fy2012 will be less than fy2010/fy2011 if not at the same level of fy2009, companies not hirings, no job growth, tougher immigration practices all lead to lower filings

bieber,
Based of FY2011(Q1+Q2) data and recent Fact Sheet (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf) released by DOL it doesn't look that way, let's wait and see.

soggadu

08-03-2011, 01:45 PM

My date is Oct 22 2007. Right now i am doubting if i will get through in 2012.

you got to be kidding me... mine is same PD ssvp... and dont be so pessimistic ss bhai... according to Q, we should be cool by end of Q1 2012...

VC bhai...you neednt wait chirakaalam(forever) for your PD to be current...expect it to be blipping on the radar by/before end of FY 2012...

imdeng

08-03-2011, 01:56 PM

Awesome - Thanks Spec. You guys do great work here and if I understand the process a little better now - its all due to the awesome content you guys have here. Also a HT to Teddy for his IV thread - I no longer participate there - but I did learn a lot there.

imdeng,

Good post.

A very good summation of what would have to happen in that situation. You clearly understand the ramifications of such a situation.

bieber

08-03-2011, 01:59 PM

bieber,
Based of FY2011(Q1+Q2) data and recent Fact Sheet (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf) released by DOL it doesn't look that way, let's wait and see.

Veni, when do u think Q3 perm numbers will be released? also, if you happen to create a table with approved dates for calculating EB1 140s, can you please share it?

mesan123

08-03-2011, 02:02 PM

Hum tho line me last ...my priority date is 2/2011...humara number tab ayyaga....when all you guys are green.... :)

abhi tak aap yehi pe hooo... javoo jaake september vaali line mein khada ho javoo.... move itttttt....

grnwtg

08-03-2011, 02:11 PM

Hi Friends,

Please let me know when I can expect my PD to be current. Can it happen this year or do I have to wait for another 1 -2 years.

- VC

There are 20% chances that you will get chance to file 485 to get EAD this year and GC next year.
There are 80% chances that you will get GC by next year end. Actually by next year there are good possibilities but uscis is not leaving any chance to delay this. Example: recent addition of new category to eb2 with out increasing the number of visas.
There are 100% chances that you will get GC in next 2 years.

rahil1

08-03-2011, 02:17 PM

That's very good point, the overall new perms for fy2012 will be less than fy2010/fy2011 if not at the same level of fy2009, companies not hirings, no job growth, tougher immigration practices all lead to lower filings

I do not agree with you. The job growth is very good especially in IT and companies are in hiring frenzy. I have personally seen too manny recruiter calling.. Please read the article in businessweek called " hiring like its 1999"

nishant2200

08-03-2011, 02:18 PM

But are they doing it for people needing visa, or GC, or EB2 etc. any input on that.

I do not agree with you. The job growth is very good especially in IT and companies are in hiring frenzy. I have personally seen too manny recruiter calling.. Please read the article in businessweek called " hiring like its 1999"

rahil1

08-03-2011, 02:20 PM

thats the million dollar question.. but its is not a fact that "companies not hirings, no job growth"

vchirakala

08-03-2011, 02:21 PM

Thx soggadu. May be another 1 year to get my EAD atleast ;-(

vchirakala

08-03-2011, 02:22 PM

Atleast if i get my EAD I will be happy.

There are 20% chances that you will get chance to file 485 to get EAD this year and GC next year.
There are 80% chances that you will get GC by next year end. Actually by next year there are good possibilities but uscis is not leaving any chance to delay this. Example: recent addition of new category to eb2 with out increasing the number of visas.
There are 100% chances that you will get GC in next 2 years.

Spectator

08-03-2011, 02:24 PM

Veni, when do u think Q3 perm numbers will be released? also, if you happen to create a table with approved dates for calculating EB1 140s, can you please share it?bieber,

The Q2 file was released on 4/29/2011, so it should be any time now.

My only worry is that if all resources are diverted to sorting out the PWD mess, the publication might be delayed.

evoori

08-03-2011, 02:29 PM

My first post here.. Was a silent spectator here for long but couldn't resist in getting involved in such an interesting forum..

Regarding PWMBs..
I see around 23K PERM approvals from India itself for 2007 in FACTS AND DATA.. If we take 7/12 approvals 2007. we have around 14K Perm approvals leading to 30K I485.. If we assume 40% to be EB2, that leads 12K PWMBs.. Anything wrong with my assumption..

Regarding BTM..
If DoS does go for BTM now, they have to issue GCs to all the preadj. cases.. otherwise next month when they retrogress, those who don't get GC (late July and Aug 2007) will start crying..

My first post, so don't beat me..

Teddy

Thanks. I dont disagree w all these things. But try working with numbers and work it backwords starting with 2012 spillover season.
Even if we go with 20K sofad calculations will look as follows:

20 k = leftover till Aug 2007 + pwmb + porting + 2 X M

where M = months beyond and including August

20 = 3 + (3+3) + 2 X M

so M = 5.5 months

That brings us to Mid January 2008

So if USCIS needs to clear a case in January, when should they have that case in? I think India/China and ROW have different standardsfor 485 processing. 6-9 months is minimum. Even if you go with 6 months, it means by end of Q2 i.e. Mar 2012 - Mid Jan 2008 has to be reached.

If USCIS does that then they are left with Zero cases in their hopper in Sep 2012 unless they move another couple of months between May - Sep 2012.

In my judgement they wont move so much on the edge of knife! At all times they would want to maintain a healthy buffer or work in progress inventory. Thats why rather than mid Jan 2008, the movement should at least be till Mar 2008 for EB2IC by Mar 2012.

kolugc

08-03-2011, 02:31 PM

Because of this economy I am thinking of moving to a Product Co which I know closely from the consulting firm I am in. My PD is 09-June-2008 and have my I140 approved from my consulting firm.

If I move to the new Co, what would have to do for keeping my PD. AFAIK,

1. I have to apply for a new Labor Cert from the new job (in the new location)
2. When I transfer my H-1B visa I should use the approved I140, so that I can get the visa extended to 3 more years along with the H-1B transfer.

Other questions
1. Is there anything else I have to take care of?
2. New labor should not take more than 3-6 months right?
3. If I joined the new Co by Jan 2012 and if the my PD becomes current sometime in Mar 2012, then if my labor cert is not through with the new job, what should I do?
4. Can I join back at my Old Co and apply 485 from there (I can do this with out another H-1B transfer (back to old Co), because I do have a valid H-1B with them through 2013 Jan.

Please let me know what you guru's think about my options? Or do you think its a risk to join the new firm?

natvyas

08-03-2011, 02:49 PM

The Visa Bulletin offers valuable information about immigration*.

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: September 2011 (Coming Soon)

I think the demand data (if USCIS wants to publish one) should be out tomorrow and the bulletin on Friday

nishant2200

08-03-2011, 02:56 PM

natvyas, this is usual for them to update the page on the early first week of the month.

It does not necessarily imply anything about the timeline of the bulletin release, IMHO.

But good information regardless, keep the news coming! At least it means there will be a bulletin :)

The Visa Bulletin offers valuable information about immigration*.

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: September 2011 (Coming Soon)

I think the demand data (if USCIS wants to publish one) should be out tomorrow and the bulletin on Friday

indiasunil

08-03-2011, 02:58 PM

Surely Visa Bulletin will surprise again by moving one year forward.

vchirakala

08-03-2011, 02:58 PM

Isn't that they put out the bulletin sometime like 11th or 12th of August ??

vchirakala

08-03-2011, 03:03 PM

nishant,

why is that the dates stop moving after (or rather move 1 or 2 weeks) after September bulletin?

natvyas, this is usual for them to update the page on the early first week of the month.

It does not necessarily imply anything about the timeline of the bulletin release, IMHO.

But good information regardless, keep the news coming! At least it means there will be a bulletin :)

vchirakala

08-03-2011, 03:07 PM

I like you positive attitude Sunil

03May07

08-03-2011, 03:13 PM

you got to be kidding me... mine is same PD ssvp... and dont be so pessimistic ss bhai... according to Q, we should be cool by end of Q1 2012...

Q, is there any way that you can scoop all the profile names and corresponding priority dates (from 'View profile') of this close knit community that we have here? or is it a Personally Identifiable Information violation? You can post in FACTS and DATA section :)

As per our source ...(its a california baba - one can say Kali Baba!!) he was in India until recently .... said was going to return first week of August.

Why did you let him go to India this FY? 'Cali Baba' could've waited until start of FY2012, as not many of us would be breathing on his neck come October VB

nishant2200

08-03-2011, 03:16 PM

vchirakala,
After September Bulletin, new FY 2012 will begin, with the October Bulletin.

There is a limit of how many visas can be allocated per Quarter to retrogressed countries like India or China, out of their maximum quota of approx 2800 visas. If the Family Based categories of these retrogressed countries, don't consume their share completely, then in Employment based, they may obtain more than their 2800, like for example South Korea benefits from this.

Now, as rough idea, if you divide 2800 by a quarter, that is just around 700 for three months.

When the dates became Current for everyone in July 2007, there were many people whose labor was not yet approved, and hence they could not file the concurrent I-140 and I-485. Also many people were bachelors at that time, who are now married, and their spouse needs to file yet. Some may be unfortunate to not have all the documents ready or some other critical reason, due to which they could not submit their applications. We call these people PWMB (People who missed the boat).

So as dates are moving back again into the mid 2007 territory, these people are getting eligible to file, this is new demand.

Some folks in EB3 upgrade to EB2, hence again this is new demand in the above eligible timeline.

This new demand, as and when gets discovered, leads to constant consumption of the 700 visas.

Hence dates don't move much in the beginning.

Now in last Quarter, there is no restriction on visas being allocated to retrogressed countries, if there is projection of un-used visas from other categories. As well as there is no restriction on visas in earlier quarter, if it's officially declared that a certain category is not going to use all its visas and how much they are releasing. Hence, accordingly dates can move fast.

nishant,

why is that the dates stop moving after (or rather move 1 or 2 weeks) after September bulletin?

nayekal

08-03-2011, 03:16 PM

Thx soggadu. May be another 1 year to get my EAD atleast ;-(

For us EAD is not useful. We still need to stay with the present company for 180 days of pending I485. By the time, we are eligible for jumping out, we might be greened.

bieber

08-03-2011, 03:18 PM

I do not agree with you. The job growth is very good especially in IT and companies are in hiring frenzy. I have personally seen too manny recruiter calling.. Please read the article in businessweek called " hiring like its 1999"
If companies are hiring like 1999,

the unemployment rate won't stay at 9% level, even more specific to our EB the h1b quota should have been already exhausted.

yes, IT sector hiring may be better than other sectors (i haven't read the article you suggested yet) but my statement was just on overall economy and I re-presented it, not derived :)

vchirakala

08-03-2011, 03:19 PM

Thanks nishant for a wonderful reply.

vchirakala

08-03-2011, 03:20 PM

you are right...but atleast we know we will get it in near future after we get EAD.

bieber

08-03-2011, 03:26 PM

bieber,

The Q2 file was released on 4/29/2011, so it should be any time now.

My only worry is that if all resources are diverted to sorting out the PWD mess, the publication might be delayed.
Thanks Spec

soggadu

08-03-2011, 03:35 PM

Beiber

stats suggest that unemployment rate for people with bachelors degree is around 4.6% and the same of people with High Schoool degree and lower is around 10.2%

This explains why the PERM filings continue to remain high

Very very very good response... makes so much sense in the present scenario... arre tabhi 2008 aur 2009 mein bhi perm filings 30K se voopar hein...

username

08-03-2011, 03:46 PM

bieber

08-03-2011, 04:04 PM

The important thing I have notice is my perm was filed in Nov-2007 and it was listed under '2008MDB Text' not under '2007MDB Text'. I guess it may be listed in 2008 because my perm got approved in Jan-2008.

may be because fy begins in october

vchirakala

08-03-2011, 04:04 PM

Hi
How come my A number has only 9 digits whereas the files you say have A-xxxxx-xxxxx

This link have detailed PERM information: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

I think if someone wants to take specific perm applications for calculation like CERTIFIED, CERTIFIED-EXPIRED and not DENIED or WITHDRAWN can use this link http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx.

It is interesting that you can find company names and sponsored people in this database. With job titles you can even guess who they are. I found mine(using my perm case number A-xxxxx-xxxxx), my job title being so specific.

The important thing I have notice is my perm was filed in Nov-2007 and it was listed under '2008MDB Text' not under '2007MDB Text'. I guess it may be listed in 2008 because my perm got approved in Jan-2008.

bieber

08-03-2011, 04:12 PM

arre tabhi 2008 aur 2009 mein bhi perm filings 30K se voopar hein...
fy2007 85k
fy2008 49k
fy2009 29k
fy2010 70k
fy2011(H1) 35k

nishant2200

08-03-2011, 04:13 PM

http://www.kkeane.info/all-faqs/general/75-what-is-the-a-and-the-alien-registration-number-are-they-the-same-thing.html

Hi
How come my A number has only 9 digits whereas the files you say have A-xxxxx-xxxxx

Spectator

08-03-2011, 04:16 PM

Hi
How come my A number has only 9 digits whereas the files you say have A-xxxxx-xxxxxvchirakala,

I think that is because the A number you are talking about is your Alien number, while the A-xxxxx-xxxxx is the PERM case number.

I believe the A in that designates Atlanta. Previously, some case numbers had a C designating Chicago.

bieber

08-03-2011, 04:31 PM

I think we should not be too concerned about unemployment rate. It doesn;t mean much. The unemployment for people in IT is 3.5 which means.. no unemployment

if you plot the perm numbers from my previous post and compare it with DOW, you will be amazed with the corelation (just an observation)

mesan123

08-03-2011, 07:35 PM

I know we already have this details in our thread, but just pasting this link for newbie's like me for whom it is little easy to decode... :)

http://www.jessieho.com/xwView.asp?xw_id=518

It is EB1 approval denial nd RFE for 2010

murali83

08-03-2011, 07:52 PM

vchirakala,

I think that is because the A number you are talking about is your Alien number, while the A-xxxxx-xxxxx is the PERM case number.

I believe the A in that designates Atlanta. Previously, some case numbers had a C designating Chicago.

Guys, I need some help here

the flc data center, says my case is certfied-expired. What does this mean. I still work for the same employer, never changed anything with it. the uscis case status stays the same, approved i-140. What can be the reason why it says certified expired.

nishant2200

08-03-2011, 08:04 PM

They all supposed to be marked as expired after 180 days. don't worry.

Guys, I need some help here

the flc data center, says my case is certfied-expired. What does this mean. I still work for the same employer, never changed anything with it. the uscis case status stays the same, approved i-140. What can be the reason why it says certified expired.

murali83

08-03-2011, 08:08 PM

They all supposed to be marked as expired after 180 days. don't worry.

Thanks Nishant for explaning.

qesehmk

08-03-2011, 08:22 PM

Guys trackitt based predictions updated. Pls check out ... http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716

In summary I am holding to a movement at least to 8th July 2007 for EB2IC in september bulletin.

nishant2200

08-03-2011, 09:43 PM

If these guys are also doing EB2, porting will get a boost . 6k estimated by Teddy doesn't seem far fetched then.

Some positive notes

Hiring Like It's 1999
The tech boom is fueling a surge in jobs and creative recruiting

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/hiring-like-its-1999-08012011.html

nishant2200

08-03-2011, 09:54 PM

Let me summarize today's stuff before Teddy beats me to it :D

"Nothing important happened today"

All waiting!

Q did again confirm trackitt trend - July 8 2007

Monica12

08-03-2011, 10:10 PM

Let me summarize today's stuff before Teddy beats me to it :D

"Nothing important happened today"
Ok.. so I'm checking the forum for some news before I hit the bed....and I see this. Now I don't have to check-out the previous posts.. thanks for the update Nishant ;)
Haripathhi, that is hilarious !!!!! :D:D

username

08-04-2011, 07:49 AM

may be because fy begins in october

yes you are right, I have understood wrong at first instant. Thanks ;)

username

08-04-2011, 07:52 AM

vchirakala,

I think that is because the A number you are talking about is your Alien number, while the A-xxxxx-xxxxx is the PERM case number.

I believe the A in that designates Atlanta. Previously, some case numbers had a C designating Chicago.

Yes here 'A-xxxxx-xxxxx' is PERM CASE NUMBER NOT Alien number. If your PERM CASE is with Atlanta than you will get A#, if it is with Chicago than you will get C#, etc.

vchirakala

08-04-2011, 08:11 AM

So if i want to check for the status in the links he sent what do I need to do ???
vchirakala,

I think that is because the A number you are talking about is your Alien number, while the A-xxxxx-xxxxx is the PERM case number.

I believe the A in that designates Atlanta. Previously, some case numbers had a C designating Chicago.

familyguy

08-04-2011, 08:14 AM

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 08:17 AM

http://icert.doleta.gov/

vchirakala, here u can check case status for labor. U cant find underlying USCIS petetion (H1, 140, etc.) status.

Spectator

08-04-2011, 08:27 AM

Spec,
In the Facts and Data thread - Perm data analysis section, I used your formulae (=DATE(2000+INT(MID(A2,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A2,3,5),1000))) against my case number and I got 8/7/2006 as my priority date (received date). But my actual priority date is 1/10/2008... Did I miss something?

Thanks much...familyguy,

Can you either post or PM me the date part of your PERM case number? I don't want the full personally identifiable number.

If your number was A-08273-91471 I only want you to provide the 08273 part.

Thanks

familyguy

08-04-2011, 08:38 AM

Spec, I just sent you a PM.. Thanks a lot :)

vchirakala

08-04-2011, 08:51 AM

nishanth

I have only SRC number and A xxx xxx xxx in my approved I140. Am I missing something here ?
http://icert.doleta.gov/

vchirakala, here u can check case status for labor. U cant find underlying USCIS petetion (H1, 140, etc.) status.

Spectator

08-04-2011, 08:59 AM

Spec, I just sent you a PM.. Thanks a lot :)familyguy,

I checked the number you gave me and it gives a Received Date of January 10, 2008 which is correct from your previous post.

Given the first 2 digits are 08 then it can't report a date in 2006.

Possibly the problem is with the explanation in the description. Using =DATE(2000+INT(MID(A2,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A2,3,5),1000)) then the case number needs to be in cell A2. If the Case Number was in cell B2684, then the formula would need changing accordingly.

I will change the post to say A1 and make it clear which part refers to the location of the Case Number.

Could you try again and report back please?

mesan123

08-04-2011, 08:59 AM

Vchirakala,

in the below site you can know your labor status, with SRC number you need to check in USCIS website. If you have approved I140 , what are you trying to find out? just to know so that if i know i can help you better :)

nishanth

I have only SRC number and A xxx xxx xxx in my approved I140. Am I missing something here ?

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 09:00 AM

nishanth

I have only SRC number and A xxx xxx xxx in my approved I140. Am I missing something here ?

Ok so u have 140. On that, the SRC is Texas service center case receipt number that you can use for 140 status inquiries on USCIS website and anywhere you need to add a pointer to 140. The A number on ur 140 is ur Alien number (A #), this is like ur immigration SSN, u are now bound to it. Can be used in USCIS FOIA.

familyguy

08-04-2011, 09:13 AM

Spec, I got the result now :)
Earlier it looks like it took A2 only so it got messed up...

Thanks a lot :)

familyguy,

I checked the number you gave me and it gives a Received Date of January 10, 2008 which is correct from your previous post.

Given the first 2 digits are 08 then it can't report a date in 2006.

Possibly the problem is with the explanation in the description. Using =DATE(2000+INT(MID(A2,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A2,3,5),1000)) then the case number needs to be in cell A2. If the Case Number was in cell B2684, then the formula would need changing accordingly.

I will change the post to say A1 and make it clear which part refers to the location of the Case Number.

Could you try again and report back please?

Spectator

08-04-2011, 09:19 AM

Spec, I got the result now :)
Earlier it looks like it took A2 only so it got messed up...

Thanks a lot :)familyguy,

I have updated the post in FACTS & DATA. Could you take a look at it and tell me whether, with the revision, you would now make the same mistake. Is it now clearer? I want to avoid it happening again.

Thanks

familyguy

08-04-2011, 09:43 AM

Spec, It looks great now.. Earlier, for some reason, formula did not copied over properly to other cells and that's what caused the problem.. when i did second time, excel automatically updated the cell values appropriately...

Thanks :)

familyguy,

I have updated the post in FACTS & DATA. Could you take a look at it and tell me whether, with the revision, you would now make the same mistake. Is it now clearer? I want to avoid it happening again.

Thanks

vchirakala

08-04-2011, 10:24 AM

Thank you. This is what it is ... in feb 2007 company A filed my perm and I got it approved in Mar 2007. I sent the docs for I140 to company A. I dont know if they filed / approved/ denied for that I140. Later in April 2008 different company filed my PERM and my current PD is Apr 2008. So I need to find out if the previous company applied for my I140 and it got approved so that I can port that.

regards
Chirakala
Vchirakala,

in the below site you can know your labor status, with SRC number you need to check in USCIS website. If you have approved I140 , what are you trying to find out? just to know so that if i know i can help you better :)

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 10:25 AM

la_2002_ch

08-04-2011, 10:30 AM

My Labor Approval date is Jun 2009. I am looking at Date of Acceptance for
Processing: Sep xx, 2008

Spectator

08-04-2011, 10:38 AM

Spec, I used the above formula in the excel sheet to calculate my priority date. My Case number is A-08113 and I had my case number in Cell A1. I got a date of Apr 2008, while the approvaed labor certificate sent to me by by employer states Sep 2008. Please advise where am I making a mistake.la_2002_ch,

You are not necessarily making a mistake.

That number gives me a Received Date of April 22, 2008.

As discussed in another post, the calculation is not foolproof. It can only be a best attempt.

I think it was kd2008 who told us that the number is generated when the lawyer first enters the case in the system. Some lawyers do this early in the process (perhaps when the PWD is obtained or when the advertising is in progress) and only actually submit the final application at a later date when the application can be completed.

In this case, the generated number will give a date earlier than the actual Received Date.

Possibly this is the case for you.

In general, lawyers don't change their behaviour. At an individual level, the calculation may not work, but overall it is likely that they did the same for other applicants and this should balance out.

username

08-04-2011, 10:54 AM

This link have detailed PERM information: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

I think if someone wants to take specific perm applications for calculation like CERTIFIED, CERTIFIED-EXPIRED and not DENIED or WITHDRAWN can use this link http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx.

It is interesting that you can find company names and sponsored people in this database. With job titles you can even guess who they are. I found mine(using my perm case number A-xxxxx-xxxxx), my job title being so specific.

The important thing I have notice is my perm was filed in Nov-2007 and it was listed under '2008MDB Text' not under '2007MDB Text'. I guess it may be listed in 2008 because my perm got approved in Jan-2008.

Very very very good response... makes so much sense in the present scenario... arre tabhi 2008 aur 2009 mein bhi perm filings 30K se voopar hein...

Here we go...
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/d5649http://www.freeimagehosting.net/t/d5649.jpg (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/d5649)

Somebody told in previous posts that Certified labor will later become Certified-Expired labor which dose not sound right as per MDB Text data. All perm case numbers are different in Certified and Certified-Expired. The Certified and Certified-Expired data holds unique perm case numbers.

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 11:24 AM

I think the H1 labors do expire after 180 days. Let me research on google. Bottomline is both certified and certified expired are to be counted for analysis for GC labors PERM. Also a certified expired does not mean it was denied or withdrawn.

Here we go...
http://www.freeimagehosting.net/d5649http://www.freeimagehosting.net/t/d5649.jpg (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/d5649)

Somebody told in previous posts that Certified labor will later become Certified-Expired labor which dose not sound right as per MDB Text data. All perm case numbers are different in Certified and Certified-Expired. The Certified and Certified-Expired data holds unique perm case numbers.

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 11:29 AM

I think the H1 labors do expire after 180 days. Let me research on google. Bottomline is both certified and certified expired are to be counted for analysis for GC labors PERM. Also a certified expired does not mean it was denied or withdrawn.

Gotcha:

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_procha.html

Uscis did this in July 2007 for GC PERM too, trying to prevent a big bodyshop labor trading loophole, IMHO

username

08-04-2011, 11:30 AM

I think the H1 labors do expire after 180 days. Let me research on google. Bottomline is both certified and certified expired are to be counted for analysis for GC labors PERM. Also a certified expired does not mean it was denied or withdrawn.

nishant, this data are purely green card labor data and don't include H1B labor. If you click the link(http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx) you will see following as first line..
Permanent Program Data

The data available for the Permanent Labor Certification Program is for applications that have been received and entered into the Department of Labor tracking system. On your left hand navigation there is link to see H1B labor..

la_2002_ch

08-04-2011, 11:33 AM

la_2002_ch,

You are not necessarily making a mistake.

That number gives me a Received Date of April 22, 2008.

As discussed in another post, the calculation is not foolproof. It can only be a best attempt.

I think it was kd2008 who told us that the number is generated when the lawyer first enters the case in the system. Some lawyers do this early in the process (perhaps when the PWD is obtained or when the advertising is in progress) and only actually submit the final application at a later date when the application can be completed.

In this case, the generated number will give a date earlier than the actual Received Date.

Possibly this is the case for you.

In general, lawyers don't change their behaviour. At an individual level, the calculation may not work, but overall it is likely that they did the same for other applicants and this should balance out.

Got it Thanks. This makes total sense, as my case was earlier supposed to be filed in early May, but then got delayed due to internal politics.

kd2008

08-04-2011, 11:33 AM

This link have detailed PERM information: http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx

I think if someone wants to take specific perm applications for calculation like CERTIFIED, CERTIFIED-EXPIRED and not DENIED or WITHDRAWN can use this link http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx.

It is interesting that you can find company names and sponsored people in this database. With job titles you can even guess who they are. I found mine(using my perm case number A-xxxxx-xxxxx), my job title being so specific.

The important thing I have notice is my perm was filed in Nov-2007 and it was listed under '2008MDB Text' not under '2007MDB Text'. I guess it may be listed in 2008 because my perm got approved in Jan-2008.

PERM data is a snapshot in time on a particular day. Please understand this first. Next, DOL go by fiscal year and not Calendar year. So your case was in FY 2008 hence it shows up in 2008 file.

The day DOL collects the PERM data determines what it certified-expired and what is certified. Case approved more than six months ago from the date of snapshot is certified-expired while others are certified.

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 11:35 AM

Agree. We both typing same time. See above this post of urs for link to rule info about PERM expiry.

nishant, this data are purely green card labor data and don't include H1B labor. If you click the link(http://www.flcdatacenter.com/CasePerm.aspx) you will see following as first line..
Permanent Program Data

The data available for the Permanent Labor Certification Program is for applications that have been received and entered into the Department of Labor tracking system. On your left hand navigation there is link to see H1B labor..

qesehmk

08-04-2011, 01:23 PM

Guys .... great discussion on economy ...

Moved to the General Immigration Thread at
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?52-General-Immigration-Discussion

belmontboy

08-04-2011, 01:29 PM

Qesehmk,

Any news from the source about Sep VB?
If no, when can we expect to know something?

whereismygclost

08-04-2011, 01:54 PM

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 02:10 PM

This time it's different. They always had luxury of huge inventory remaining previously.

And remaining what they have written, that's kind of generic and a common sense verbiage, and it's the kind of language which earlier CO always used to put in the visa bulletins. I wouldn't be too afraid.

Not so good news from The Oh Law firm regarding Sept visa bulletin:

"08/04/2011: History of Visa Cut-Off Dates in Visa Bulletin for the Last Month of a Fiscal Year and Advised Filing of New EB-485 Applications in August During Visa Number Available

Historically, the movement of EB visa cut-off dates tends to be either slow or in the worst situation, even move backward. There is no information available about the exact EB-2 visa numbers available for September 2011, the last month of FY 2011. The two factors may affect this: One is the filter-down numbers from EB-1 and the other is the new demand for EB-2 numbers. Currently the first factor may remain in favor of the EB-2 for the Indians and Chinese, but the pressure for increasing new EB-2 numbers is likely to continue since more and more Indians and Chinese with EB-3 cases have been filing new EB-2 cases to recapture the EB-3 priority date, thereby they can move their EB-2 cases closer to the EB-2 visa cut-off dates. Those whose EB-2 visa number became current in the August 2011 may not want to delay their filing of EB-485 applications when their visa numbers are current in August, "out of precaution." "

chirag.n

08-04-2011, 02:18 PM

this guys always takes the extreme position. look at his previous posts, using words/phrases like "precaution", "do not delay", "pressure" and my favorite "!". i personally try to stay away from fear mongerers, that's why i like this site so much...

Not so good news from The Oh Law firm regarding Sept visa bulletin:

"08/04/2011: History of Visa Cut-Off Dates in Visa Bulletin for the Last Month of a Fiscal Year and Advised Filing of New EB-485 Applications in August During Visa Number Available

Historically, the movement of EB visa cut-off dates tends to be either slow or in the worst situation, even move backward. There is no information available about the exact EB-2 visa numbers available for September 2011, the last month of FY 2011. The two factors may affect this: One is the filter-down numbers from EB-1 and the other is the new demand for EB-2 numbers. Currently the first factor may remain in favor of the EB-2 for the Indians and Chinese, but the pressure for increasing new EB-2 numbers is likely to continue since more and more Indians and Chinese with EB-3 cases have been filing new EB-2 cases to recapture the EB-3 priority date, thereby they can move their EB-2 cases closer to the EB-2 visa cut-off dates. Those whose EB-2 visa number became current in the August 2011 may not want to delay their filing of EB-485 applications when their visa numbers are current in August, "out of precaution." "

veni001

08-04-2011, 02:26 PM

Not so good news from The Oh Law firm regarding Sept visa bulletin:

"08/04/2011: History of Visa Cut-Off Dates in Visa Bulletin for the Last Month of a Fiscal Year and Advised Filing of New EB-485 Applications in August During Visa Number Available

Historically, the movement of EB visa cut-off dates tends to be either slow or in the worst situation, even move backward. There is no information available about the exact EB-2 visa numbers available for September 2011, the last month of FY 2011. The two factors may affect this: One is the filter-down numbers from EB-1 and the other is the new demand for EB-2 numbers. Currently the first factor may remain in favor of the EB-2 for the Indians and Chinese, but the pressure for increasing new EB-2 numbers is likely to continue since more and more Indians and Chinese with EB-3 cases have been filing new EB-2 cases to recapture the EB-3 priority date, thereby they can move their EB-2 cases closer to the EB-2 visa cut-off dates. Those whose EB-2 visa number became current in the August 2011 may not want to delay their filing of EB-485 applications when their visa numbers are current in August, "out of precaution." "

This time it's different. They always had luxury of huge inventory remaining previously.

And remaining what they have written, that's kind of generic and a common sense verbiage, and it's the kind of language which earlier CO always used to put in the visa bulletins. I wouldn't be too afraid.

this guys always takes the extreme position. look at his previous posts, using words/phrases like "precaution", "do not delay", "pressure" and my favorite "!". i personally try to stay away from fear mongerers, that's why i like this site so much...

Just looking at PWMB PERM breakdown (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), EB2IC - new filers (not counting porting and dependents who missed July 2007) for August 2011 should be less than 500.

qesehmk

08-04-2011, 02:34 PM

Agree w all of you. I think its fear mongering .... especially the talk about portings doesnt make sense given what we saw this year and given where economy is headed.

This time it's different. They always had luxury of huge inventory remaining previously.

And remaining what they have written, that's kind of generic and a common sense verbiage, and it's the kind of language which earlier CO always used to put in the visa bulletins. I wouldn't be too afraid.

this guys always takes the extreme position. look at his previous posts, using words/phrases like "precaution", "do not delay", "pressure" and my favorite "!". i personally try to stay away from fear mongerers, that's why i like this site so much...

Just looking at PWMB PERM breakdown (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), EB2IC - new filers (not counting porting and dependents who missed July 2007) for August 2011 should be less than 500.

username

08-04-2011, 02:42 PM

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June (Leo Point), most likely 01-JUN-2007.
Qesehmk--------July 8th 2007 min.
Spec------------8th June to 22nd June 2007 (I hope)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007
Sunil -------- 22-June-2007/01-July-2007
Kanmani -----1st August 2007
Soggadu ----- April 15 2008
pch053 -------- 15thJune 2007 to 1st July 2007
gclong --------- July 1st 2008 or April 1st 2008
Indiaeb2 -------- 15th Aug 2007
skpanda -------- CURRENT
meso129--------Mar 1 2008
qblogfan--------April 15, 2008
gchopeful123-------- 1st Oct 2007
username------------ greater than Nov 2007

leo07

08-04-2011, 02:43 PM

It's just an attorney trying to make quick money off his client's worst fears. 99% of immigrants would just be waiting to become current and file 485 ASAP. This guys might have had clients who have not filed yet.

This specific site, had always been a shady one for me. The two reasons he mentioned are absolute no-brainers, any novice EBIC immigrant would know that.

This time it's different. They always had luxury of huge inventory remaining previously.

And remaining what they have written, that's kind of generic and a common sense verbiage, and it's the kind of language which earlier CO always used to put in the visa bulletins. I wouldn't be too afraid.

veni001

08-04-2011, 03:07 PM

ssvp22,
I agree with Spec, Only difference i could see between EB2-entrepreneur, when implemented, and EB5 is that EB5 require capital investment.

Here is some more clarification on Entrepreneur Visa....

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9218825/White_House_clarifies_H_1B_green_card_rules_to_att ract_investment?source=toc

It is clear that EB2IC-entrepreneur has to wait it line unless he/she can recapture PD from previous i140.

cantwaitlonger

08-04-2011, 03:09 PM

It is clear that EB2IC-entrepreneur has to wait it line unless he/she can recapture PD from previous i140.

Not true if the entrepreneur can be charged to ROW

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 03:20 PM

Not true if the entrepreneur can be charged to ROW

I/C entrepreneur can be charged to ROW only if he marries someone who is not born in I/C :) , also we are assuming the I/C ent is either single or willing to get divorced :)

you can't change your place of birth.

iamdeb

08-04-2011, 03:21 PM

qesehmk

08-04-2011, 03:26 PM

That is true. And the fact that enterprenuer needs to wait in line (long or short or current) makes one question then how is it different than EB2 unless one can self-sponsor by opening a business. And even if self-sponsorship is allowed then really how many people will qualify? So overall as somebody said earlier - this looks like just some show-and-tell move by USCIS without much substance.

Not true if the entrepreneur can be charged to ROW

username

08-04-2011, 03:26 PM

So far we had below movement for EB2 India in previous FYs..

----------------FY2011--------FY2010--------FY2009--------FY2008------FY2007---------FY - 2006
Oct------------5/8/2006------1/22/2005-----4/1/2003-----4/1/2004-----6/15/2002-----11/1/1999
Sep-----------4/15/2007-----5/8/2006------1/8/2005-----8/1/2006-----4/1/2004-------1-Jan-03
Total Days----342-----------471-------------648-----------852-----------656-------------1157

Minimum days priority date had moved is 471 if we look at all prior FY (2010,2009,2008,2007,2006) movements.

This FY (2011), priority date had moved 342 days so far.

If I am not wrong we did not get less SOFAD than FY 2010. So as per me this could be a possibility:

471 - 342 = 129 days difference

If I add 129 days to 4/15/2007 (Aug/2011 EB2 India date) than it will come to 8/22/2007.

qesehmk

08-04-2011, 03:28 PM

Bravo! That's what we call facts based discussion. Right .... wrong ... .who agrees or disagree doesn't matter.

Great insight!

P.S. - I think Oct is the start of USCIS FY and Sep is the end of FY. If so please update original post to clarify.
To stress again why I like this is because generally speaking law of regression kicks in and so over time we will see different statistics converge to the averages. Doesnt mean it will happen this year. But helps to understand big picture and most probably course of action.

So far we had below movement for EB2 India in previous FYs..
FY - 2011 FY - 2010 FY - 2009 FY - 2008 FY - 2007 FY - 2006
Oct 5/8/2006 1/22/2005 4/1/2003 4/1/2004 6/15/2002 11/1/1999
Sep 4/15/2007 5/8/2006 1/8/2005 8/1/2006 4/1/2004 1-Jan-03
Total Days 342 471 648 852 656 1157

Minimum days priority date had moved is 471 if we look at all prior FY (2010,2009,2008,2007,2006) movements.

This FY (2011), priority date had moved 342 days so far.

If I am not wrong we did not get less SOFAD than FY 2010. So as per me this could be a possibility:

471 - 342 = 129 days difference

If I add 129 days to 4/15/2007 (Aug/2011 EB2 India date) than it will come to 8/22/2007.

srimurthy

08-04-2011, 03:34 PM

I would love to see the 2006 kind of movement of 1157 days - that would make it June'2009.

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 03:40 PM

misunderstanding. I thought cantwaitlonger is saying I/C can be charged to ROW somehow. I think he is saying that ROW can benefit from this, which is true. Veni was also only saying for I/C btw.

I/C entrepreneur can be charged to ROW only if he marries someone who is not born in I/C :) , also we are assuming the I/C ent is either single or willing to get divorced :)

you can't change your place of birth.

rahil1

08-04-2011, 03:43 PM

leo07

08-04-2011, 03:53 PM

Good one.

The way you determined that dates would move to 8/22/2007, by looking at spec's table(??) is agreeable.
Number of days moved in previous years, is a relatively unstable parameter to depend upon. Because the movement is based, at least on two high-level variables, X & & Y. X being the SOFAD and Y being the number of applications in that particular date range.

It's definitely encouraging to see a different perspective. Good Luck!

So far we had below movement for EB2 India in previous FYs..

----------------FY2011--------FY2010--------FY2009--------FY2008------FY2007---------FY - 2006
Oct------------5/8/2006------1/22/2005-----4/1/2003-----4/1/2004-----6/15/2002-----11/1/1999
Sep-----------4/15/2007-----5/8/2006------1/8/2005-----8/1/2006-----4/1/2004-------1-Jan-03
Total Days----342-----------471-------------648-----------852-----------656-------------1157

Minimum days priority date had moved is 471 if we look at all prior FY (2010,2009,2008,2007,2006) movements.

This FY (2011), priority date had moved 342 days so far.

If I am not wrong we did not get less SOFAD than FY 2010. So as per me this could be a possibility:

471 - 342 = 129 days difference

If I add 129 days to 4/15/2007 (Aug/2011 EB2 India date) than it will come to 8/22/2007.

Gclongwait

08-04-2011, 03:55 PM

But last year there were fewer applicants if you look from 2005april to 2005 nov there were less than 3k

The spillover was also much lesser. I believe it was about 20K last year. This year we are sure of atleast 30K

TeddyKoochu

08-04-2011, 04:03 PM

Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September :). It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year :).

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 04:07 PM

;)

u said it. engineering days, copying notes, mugging up huge texts on electromagnetics - and I still can't explain how antennas work... sigh

Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September :). It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year :).

qesehmk

08-04-2011, 04:10 PM

Teddy

You are right. Our fundamental demand supply model stays in place. However I think this additional insight is also worthwhile data point because over time things tend to reverse to mean.

Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September :). It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year :).

mesan123

08-04-2011, 05:40 PM

There was no demand data released for august month today.....so i think the sep bulletin will be released only by next week tuesday or so...

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 06:46 PM

There was no demand data released for august month today.....so i think the sep bulletin will be released only by next week tuesday or so...

n*5+123, frankly I see no chance of demand data or bulletin this week. On monday 8/8, they would have had just 5 business days into the month, so even that is not a guarantee. What can be said for sure is that it will be out by 8/12 friday, the bulletin, and hopefully the demand data a day before that.

Of course, Q's source may enlighten us earlier on the release dates, and / or any trend in movement.

qesehmk

08-04-2011, 06:50 PM

We should hear by Tuesday or Monday. The bulletin will most likely come out Tue-Fri next week.

Q's source may enlighten us earlier on the release dates, and / or any trend in movement.

nishant2200

08-04-2011, 07:28 PM

Great point K. So it now does not seem far fetched to expect the Bulletin on Monday. And much better chances on tuesday.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

describes like this .....

"VO attempts to establish the cut-off dates for the following month on or about the 8th of each month "

So we can assume that , Dos is not ready before 8th . I Didnt verify the dates of previous ones , but i think we can expect the bulletin after 8th .

neospeed

08-04-2011, 10:47 PM

Hmm scary, cis missing files:

http://fcw.com/articles/2011/06/20/uscis-telework-privacy-risks.aspx

username

08-05-2011, 08:22 AM

But last year there were fewer applicants if you look from 2005april to 2005 nov there were less than 3k
agreed, last year we had fewer applicants if you look from 2005april to 2005 nov there were less than 3k, but current FY we are having approx >13K extra SOFAD.
So approx each month we can accommodate 1100 extra application. And more thing to notice is there was no movement in first 2 quarter of current FY (Sep 2010 to Apr 2011).

Good one.

The way you determined that dates would move to 8/22/2007, by looking at spec's table(??) is agreeable.
Number of days moved in previous years, is a relatively unstable parameter to depend upon. Because the movement is based, at least on two high-level variables, X & & Y. X being the SOFAD and Y being the number of applications in that particular date range.

It's definitely encouraging to see a different perspective. Good Luck! so far in all the theories (methods) we had discuss on this form, X and Y are more or less assumptions. for quick reference I have copied Assumptions form first page of this form:
Assumptions:
0. VB provided correct info in terms of 50% reduction in eB1 demand.
1. USCIS Published data of current 485 backlog (dated 1st Oct 2010) was correct and includes all Emp based cases including dependents.
2. 2011 NVC inventory will be similar to 2010 NVC inventory. (since the latest we have is from last year).
3. USCIS doesn't waste any visas during 2011.
4. There is NO family spillover of visas from year 2010 into year 2011.
5. 30% people w PDs bet Jan-Jul 2007 missed the 2007 boat. (calculated from trackitt data) (not included but doesn't matter until after dates move into Jan 2007)
6. 3-4K EB3 convert to EB2 in 2011.
7. EB1 demand stays same as last year and EB1 clears its backlog
8. R485 at 100%
9. SYA at 37-50%
9. CP allocation factored in demand. So SOFAD is free of CP. From EB2 perspective assumed minimal even otherwise.

Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September :). It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year :). I totally agree with you TK. I must mentioned that you have good insight on all theories so far we had discuss. The beauty of your analysis is you most of the time stick with the real DOS or USCIS release data.

Teddy

You are right. Our fundamental demand supply model stays in place. However I think this additional insight is also worthwhile data point because over time things tend to reverse to mean. I think all (or most of ) models we have discussed so far on this form should stay in place because none of them are proven even 50% accurate :)

Actualy every month Charles Oppenheim personally visit first 7 days to prediction forms and make sure none of our GC-Guru theory prove to be right, otherwise his job will be on risk and TeddyK/Spec/Nishanth/Leo07/etc would replace him (Charles Oppenheim) and from next visa bulletin somebody here will say "Of course, Q's source may enlighten us earlier on the release dates, and / or any trend in movement." :)

Good Luck everybody!

imdeng

08-05-2011, 09:26 AM

Completely agree with TK. Number of days is a result of SOFAD and 485 density. We have just passed through the absolutely highest 485 density ever - the early 2007 - that is why the number of days movement is lower even though we cleared the highest number of EB2IC visas ever. The good news is that the density now declines continuously (except for the unusual spike in 2010) - and the current data (2011) seems downright pre-2005 like.

In my view, the whole EB2IC crisis is a result of the fact that H1B limit was raised to 195K for a few years in Y2K and later without a corresponding increase in EB GC numbers. All these H1B people hit the EB GC market in a few years and there was no supply. Now that H1B has gone back to 65K (and lower - actual usage this year might not reach the limit), the economy is in shambles, there is competition for skilled labor from other countries, and the supplier countries are doing much better themselves, I am confident that the EB2IC backlog will revert to its early 2000 levels - a very manageable few months to a year backlog. We are unfortunate to live through the messy time in the middle, but as Q says, everything regresses to mean eventually - and I think people who are getting into the queue right now will have a much easier time than people getting in the line in 2006-2009.

Friends the movement by number of days is just statistics or information the real thing is how much was the SOFAD or how many cases were cleared. Number of days does not quite adequately represent this. This year we have moved through a very heavy density zone which is probably double density when compared to last year, so we may have moved far more in terms of absolute days last year but this year SOFAD is much higher even though the movement is less in terms of days. If number of day’s model is to be approved current then we must have huge BTM in September :). It may remind a lot of us about our college days, the last day before the exam was quite an important day of study when compared with all days in the semester / academic year :).

zenmaster

08-05-2011, 09:48 AM

Completely agree with TK. Number of days is a result of SOFAD and 485 density. We have just passed through the absolutely highest 485 density ever - the early 2007 - that is why the number of days movement is lower even though we cleared the highest number of EB2IC visas ever. The good news is that the density now declines continuously (except for the unusual spike in 2010) - and the current data (2011) seems downright pre-2005 like.

In my view, the whole EB2IC crisis is a result of the fact that H1B limit was raised to 195K for a few years in Y2K and later without a corresponding increase in EB GC numbers. All these H1B people hit the EB GC market in a few years and there was no supply. Now that H1B has gone back to 65K (and lower - actual usage this year might not reach the limit), the economy is in shambles, there is competition for skilled labor from other countries, and the supplier countries are doing much better themselves, I am confident that the EB2IC backlog will revert to its early 2000 levels - a very manageable few months to a year backlog. We are unfortunate to live through the messy time in the middle, but as Q says, everything regresses to mean eventually - and I think people who are getting into the queue right now will have a much easier time than people getting in the line in 2006-2009.

+1
That is my view too...
Hopefully CO is able to visualize this declining density and is able to move the dates relatively fast to build the inventory - give enough time to USCIS to adjudicate - and lastly not waste visas due to insufficient time !

soggadu

08-05-2011, 09:53 AM

Completely agree with TK. Number of days is a result of SOFAD and 485 density. We have just passed through the absolutely highest 485 density ever - the early 2007 - that is why the number of days movement is lower even though we cleared the highest number of EB2IC visas ever. The good news is that the density now declines continuously (except for the unusual spike in 2010) - and the current data (2011) seems downright pre-2005 like.

In my view, the whole EB2IC crisis is a result of the fact that H1B limit was raised to 195K for a few years in Y2K and later without a corresponding increase in EB GC numbers. All these H1B people hit the EB GC market in a few years and there was no supply. Now that H1B has gone back to 65K (and lower - actual usage this year might not reach the limit), the economy is in shambles, there is competition for skilled labor from other countries, and the supplier countries are doing much better themselves, I am confident that the EB2IC backlog will revert to its early 2000 levels - a very manageable few months to a year backlog. We are unfortunate to live through the messy time in the middle, but as Q says, everything regresses to mean eventually - and I think people who are getting into the queue right now will have a much easier time than people getting in the line in 2006-2009.

imdeng...

i may not agree with your point that EB2 is in crisis becoz of 195K H1B at some point of time. You remember till 2005 or so Eb2 was current mostly... also most of Y2K'rs filed in EB3 so EB3 can curse for that. Now it doesnt matter what numbers H1B are, everybody will start/started applying in EB2 through what ever means... The best bet to reduce this mess would be to take STEM graduates from the quota which will definitely almost make EB2 current...

neospeed

08-05-2011, 10:02 AM

imdeng...

i may not agree with your point that EB2 is in crisis becoz of 195K H1B at some point of time. You remember till 2005 or so Eb2 was current mostly... also most of Y2K'rs filed in EB3 so EB3 can curse for that. Now it doesnt matter what numbers H1B are, everybody will start/started applying in EB2 through what ever means... The best bet to reduce this mess would be to take STEM graduates from the quota which will definitely almost make EB2 current...

I vote for removing the dependents from being counted for visa numbers

Spectator

08-05-2011, 10:08 AM

Moved some posts to General Discussion http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?52-General-Immigration-Discussion

soggadu

08-05-2011, 10:13 AM

I vote for removing the dependents from being counted for visa numbers

I dont understand that logic.. then are we looking at same SSN for the whole family? When u get 2 Alien numbers... U use 2 GC's right.... I might make some angry on this but i dont understand how it is possible... yes, they can for documentation purpose issue different A numbers but have to count for a single umbrella GC...but doesnt sound logical....as they might be separated, divorced, go back to their country and all...

nishant2200

08-05-2011, 10:22 AM

I dont understand that logic.. then are we looking at same SSN for the whole family? When u get 2 Alien numbers... U use 2 GC's right.... I might make some angry on this but i dont understand how it is possible... yes, they can for documentation purpose issue different A numbers but have to count for a single umbrella GC...but doesnt sound logical....as they might be separated, divorced, go back to their country and all...

A # is not visa number. You get that even on OPT EAD.

I see where u r coming from. To solve that, they could simply devise a schema where there is a main visa number : xyz-n, where xyz counts for the allocation, while n from 1 to m, m is a +ve integer, denotes beneficiaries under that allocation.

As far as divorce etc goes, ppl marry citizen and get divorced after 5 years, would they deport him? My friends parents are citizens but they live in India on PIO card. So what.

Technalities like this can be solved a number of ways if there is a will in policymakers.

neospeed

08-05-2011, 10:26 AM

soggadu

08-05-2011, 10:29 AM

A # is not visa number. You get that even on OPT EAD.

I see where u r coming from. To solve that, they could simply devise a schema where there is a main visa number : xyz-n, where xyz counts for the allocation, while n from 1 to m, m is a +ve integer, denotes beneficiaries under that allocation.

As far as divorce etc goes, ppl marry citizen and get divorced after 5 years, would they deport him?

Technalities like this can be solved a number of ways if there is a will in policymakers.

Divorcies dont get deported but they do have a file of their own rather than under an umbrella as being suggested... this is just an example i am using ...

Also, the solution u mentioned is a complex one when it needs to get political approval... IMHO there are other ways than not counting dependents as once they get GC no one is depended any more... The one i recently heard and like is Staple Visa... Degree ke liye aavoo GC pavoo... No H1/L1 ... people spend on degrees, US retains them... no brain drain... but i am really not 100% on this as everybody should get an oppurtunity to come into this country... but there should be a mid way... my 2 cents...discussion overr....

soggadu

08-05-2011, 10:29 AM

well how are they doing this with h-4?. they need to come up with similar solution.

H4 is just like a sit at home visa neo.... they are not eligible for anything which use govt funds... but GC people are...

Spectator

08-05-2011, 10:33 AM

I dont understand that logic.. then are we looking at same SSN for the whole family? When u get 2 Alien numbers... U use 2 GC's right.... I might make some angry on this but i dont understand how it is possible... yes, they can for documentation purpose issue different A numbers but have to count for a single umbrella GC...but doesnt sound logical....soggadu,

I think you misunderstand how it would work.

Everything would be the same as now - individual A# etc.

The only difference would be that only the Primary applicant visa would be counted against the allocation. The 3 visas received by the Dependents would not, even though they were still issued.

Presently, taking a family of four, they consume 4 visas, all of which are counted against the overall numerical limit of 140k and any other limit due to Preference Category or Country.

If Dependents are not counted against the allocation, only one visa (the Primary applicant) would be used from the limited numbers.

So, if we say the average numbers of Dependents per primary is 1.25, then 140k visas effectively becomes 140 * 2.25 = 315k even though only 140k are still being used.

neospeed

08-05-2011, 10:35 AM

H4 is just like a sit at home visa neo.... they are not eligible for anything which use govt funds... but GC people are...

Lol, is there a rule for H-4 needs to work once H-4 gets a GC?

nishant2200

08-05-2011, 10:36 AM

H4 is just like a sit at home visa neo.... they are not eligible for anything which use govt funds... but GC people are...

There is an internal memo that march 2012 on, H4 because primary is on AC21 caused H extension, would get EAD.

soggadu

08-05-2011, 10:37 AM

I understand spec...but where are those numbers accounted? can they have an un accounted category?... there is always a category when they issue GC from lottery to family... where do the dependents fit in? should they be charged with family? Lot of questions arise with this...

soggadu

08-05-2011, 10:40 AM

There is an internal memo that march 2012 on, H4 because primary is on AC21 caused H extension, would get EAD.

H4 has always been able to get EAD once they apply for AOS right and somebody is on AC21 because s/he(primary) has already applied for AOS right... am i missing something...

bieber

08-05-2011, 10:55 AM

Not clear Nishant
Pls explain

Recently there was a report saying, with H1b extension H4 will be eligilbe for EAD (starting in Q2 2012)

gc_usa

08-05-2011, 10:56 AM

There was a news while ago that H4 can get EAD where H1b is on AC21 , which means are on H1b ext beyond 6th year based on pending labor more than 365 days , approved labor and/ or approved I 140 and who does not have got chance to apply for I 485 because of retrogression. It can't be done through just internal memo but it has to go through rule making process where uscis , dhs or dos will publish rule for comment for 90 days and after that they can send out internal memo to all officer to approve such a request and also modify EAD form to accommodate such category.

Just to make it clear in past pre filling I 485 without date being current was on rule making agenda for 2 years and never make through finally DHS took it off.