EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends following is the YouTube link of Dr. Arora's testimony, I hope you will all find it useful. This link was posted by user smuggymba on IV, Iam posting it here for everyone’s benefit.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtRXsP1-jDM

[qblogfan]

It's a great testimony. Thanks for sharing.

The current crazy long wait of green card is killing all the motivations of chinese and indian eb immigrants.

Many talented eb immigrants got locked up for many years in the same spot. this system is killing all of us.

It's hurting eb immigrants, but also hurting the employers. EB immigrants are not happy and I can't believe people can work hard when they are not happy.



Friends following is the YouTube link of Dr. Arora's testimony, I hope you will all find it useful. This link was posted by user smuggymba on IV, Iam posting it here for everyone’s benefit.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtRXsP1-jDM

[veni001]

veni .... great. so we are converging nicely. Thats where my head is.



Q,
Actually i have to offset 9.6k for IC for full year in calculating SOFAD instead of 4.8k (half year) in my calculation. This brings net SOFAD from my calculations to 39k for FY2011.

SOFAD Breakdown
EB1-18,000
EB2ROWMP - 8,400
EB2IC Reg - 5,600
EB3- 0
EB4 -0
EB5- 7,000
Total = 39k

I have updated my previous post.

[qesehmk]

I have moved all the distractions from yesterday into our "dirty linen bucket" at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?110-Arguments-Fights-Disagreements-Trolls-and-Everything-That-You-Don-t-Want-To-Read

If anybody wants to further speak on all those topics ... then that's the thread. Lets refocus on what we do best here - calculations - predictions and clarity.

[mvinayam]

Leo, for some reason I thought you are on 22nd June, not 8th June. I felt actually remorseful writing 15th June, was thinking of you all the while :)

Glad you are on the 8th, and sincerely hope you can make it!

Nishant2200,

Just for the mental statisfaction can you move the dates by one more week to June22 :). It really makes you to worry a lot when you have wait till May2012 for the dates to move past Jun 20th :( .

[soggadu]

Q,
Actually i have to offset 9.6k for IC for full year in calculating SOFAD instead of 4.8k (half year) in my calculation. This brings net SOFAD from my calculations to 39k for FY2011.

SOFAD Breakdown
EB1-18,000
EB2ROWMP - 8,400
EB2IC Reg - 5,600
EB3- 0
EB4 -0
EB5- 7,000
Total = 39k

I have updated my previous post.

My dear veni... thanks a lot for the numbers... can you please please please also tell me how much will be left for this sep bulletin...

[veni001]

My dear veni... thanks a lot for the numbers... can you please please please also tell me how much will be left for this sep bulletin...

soggadu,

Based on the inventory and demand data, at least 32K SOFAD must have been applied until August'11 Visa Bulletin.
Assuming no surge in EB1/EB2ROWMP processing/demand in the second half of FY2011, we can expect additional 7k to be applied to EB2IC in September Visa Bulletin.

Note: Any increase in EB1/EB2ROWMP usage for Q3-Q4(compared to Q1-Q2) could bring that number down to 2-3K or even to zero for Sept VB .

[rahil1]

Note: Any increase in EB1/EB2ROWMP usage for Q3-Q4(compared to Q1-Q2) could bring that number down to 2-3K or even to zero for Sept VB .[/QUOTE]

Don't say that please....

[soggadu]

soggadu,

Based on the inventory and demand data, at least 32K SOFAD must have been applied until August'11 Visa Bulletin.
Assuming no surge in EB1/EB2ROWMP processing/demand in the second half of FY2011, we can expect additional 7k to be applied to EB2IC in September Visa Bulletin.

Note: Any increase in EB1/EB2ROWMP usage for Q3-Q4(compared to Q1-Q2) could bring that number down to 2-3K or even to zero for Sept VB .

Thank u so much veni... that means... this should clear the backlog or near end of backlog... which is good... i am tired looking at people's backs standing in the line...not that they are bad!!!... meera number aage laooooo.....

[veni001]

no...
Note: Any increase in EB1/EB2ROWMP usage for Q3-Q4(compared to Q1-Q2) could bring that number down to 2-3K or even to zero for Sept VB .

Don't say that please....

rahil1,
Even though i am optimistic about Sept VB, i like to keep it conservative for predictions.

[nishant2200]

rahil1,
Even though i am optimistic about Sept VB, i like to keep it conservative for predictions.

Only if those AILA EB1 stats cud be seen now. I am afraid to ask my lawyer as he is kind of moody, n don't want to invoke his ire!

Hopefully Someone will get it for us.

[neospeed]

Only if those AILA EB1 stats cud be seen now. I am afraid to ask my lawyer as he is kind of moody, n don't want to invoke his ire!

Hopefully Someone will get it for us.

I hope some one can get this info. Does any one have a lawyer friend affiliated with aila that can share this doc ?.

[cantwaitlonger]

I know this is not the latest data - the latest data has 485 approval info. This one is I-140 approvals for EB-1 posted in Feb 2011. Hope this helps!

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

[kd2008]

EB1 data posted on immigration-law.com

http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png

[bieber]

kd2008, there is no one faster than you bringing the data to our forum, kudos to you

[Monica12]

kd2008, there is no one faster than you bringing the data to our forum, kudos to you
Yeah..kd2008.. that was super-fast. Thank you!
I thought we would have to wait till next week before we'd find it :)

[bieber]

2011 total EB1 140 approvals sofar 8,712,
According to Veni, Q1+Q2 approvals 75% of 7k = 5250

Q3 is close to 3000, atleast avg 1000 per month which is higher than previous 6 months, so EB1 small surge is happened and hence the movement in Aug bulletin

another observation

EB1-C receipts increased from 47% to 53% of total EB1 from fy2010 to fy2011 while approval rate changed from 52% to 50%

[neospeed]

EB1 data posted on immigration-law.com



Thanks KD for the info, that was fast

[veni001]

EB1 data posted on immigration-law.com



Kd2008,
Great information.

Quick Summary

EB1-i140 Denial rate
2010 -23%
2011 -14.5%
Overall is about 19%

EB1-i140 RFE rate
2010 -37.6%
2011 -31.2%
Overall is about 35%

Bottom line only 8,712 EB1-i140 approvals(FY2011) as of July 19, 2011 - which reflect to about 21k demand for almost 10 months or 25k demand for full year. Which is very close to waht we have calculated(27k) in our i140 data and calculations (FACTS AND DATA SECTION (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations))

[nishant2200]

I hope some one can get this info. Does any one have a lawyer friend affiliated with aila that can share this doc ?.

I am indeed srisanth it seems. I thought of this again, and voila, in few minutes, kd2008 got the info!

[nishant2200]

Kd2008,
Great information.

Quick Summary

EB1-i140 Denial rate
2010 -23%
2011 -14.5%
Overall is about 19%

EB1-i140 RFE rate
2010 -37.6%
2011 -31.2%
Overall is about 35%

Bottom line only 8,712 EB1-i140 approvals(FY2011) as of July 19, 2011 - which reflect to about 21k demand for almost 10 months or 25k demand for full year. Which is very close to waht we have calculated(27k) in our i140 data and calculations (FACTS AND DATA SECTION (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations))

So it means we are still on course for the at least 4k SOFAD more, if I am interpreting correctly.?

[pch053]

Veni,
Just a quick clarification: in your SOFAD calculation, you have 18K FD from EB1. From the above EB1 data, the yearly demand is estimated to be 25K; in that case we should be expecting 15K FD from EB1, right? Or in other words, the FY11 SOFAD for EB2-I/C will reduce by 3K from your estimate of 39K (i.e. ~around 36K). Or, in other words, we will have around 4K remaining for the Sep bulletin. Am I interpreting the data correctly?

[natvyas]

Kd2008,
Great information.

Quick Summary

EB1-i140 Denial rate
2010 -23%
2011 -14.5%
Overall is about 19%

EB1-i140 RFE rate
2010 -37.6%
2011 -31.2%
Overall is about 35%

Bottom line only 8,712 EB1-i140 approvals(FY2011) as of July 19, 2011 - which reflect to about 21k demand for almost 10 months or 25k demand for full year. Which is very close to waht we have calculated(27k) in our i140 data and calculations (FACTS AND DATA SECTION (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations))

These are 140 approvals.....does this mean these applicants are documentarily qualified as well? Will USCIS to able to attach a visa to all the applicants in time?
Regards
Nat

[Monica12]

I am indeed srisanth it seems. I thought of this again, and voila, in few minutes, kd2008 got the info!
Sri.. in that case, please start thinking more and more that....in Sep VB , dates move towards Veni's upward projected target of 7K :)

[nishant2200]

Numbers have come in. Now the Spec, Veni, Teddy and Q will rise again :) fun fun fun

this is the moment we strive here for! New data!

[natvyas]

True....infact I look forward to their analysis more than the VB itself......its like watching tendulkar bat, rather than see the number of runs he scored....

[veni001]

So it means we are still on course for the at least 4k SOFAD more, if I am interpreting correctly.?

Could very well be


Veni,
Just a quick clarification: in your SOFAD calculation, you have 18K FD from EB1. From the above EB1 data, the yearly demand is estimated to be 25K; in that case we should be expecting 15K FD from EB1, right? Or in other words, the FY11 SOFAD for EB2-I/C will reduce by 3K from your estimate of 39K (i.e. ~around 36K). Or, in other words, we will have around 4K remaining for the Sep bulletin. Am I interpreting the data correctly?

Good question,
Considering the current 485 processing times, EB1 demand could verywell be from the approvals until end of July (today:)), which is about 21K. In this case EB2IC could get upto 19K from EB1


These are 140 approvals.....does this mean these applicants are documentarily qualified as well? Will USCIS to able to attach a visa to all the applicants in time?
Regards
Nat

See my response above, USCIS my be able to attach a VISA number for the approvals until July 2011 from FY 2011 quota.

[whereismygclost]

bottom line guys ..whats the prediction final date for sep visa bulletin? as per spec's table 7k will lead to almost 1-Aug-2007? or is it only 4K?

[natvyas]

Could very well be



Good question,
Considering the current 485 processing times, EB1 demand could verywell be from the approvals until end of July (today:)), which is about 21K. In this case EB2IC could get upto 19K from EB1



See my response above, USCIS my be able to attach a VISA number for the approvals until July 2011 from FY 2011 quota.


This means we could get anywhere from 4k to 19K?

[veni001]

This means we could get anywhere from 4k to 19K?

natvyas,
19k is total Spillover possible from EB1 to EB2IC for FY2011.

[familyguy]

Guys, it looks like only 4401 (RFE) applications are pending.. which means we can get FY2011 kind of SOFAD in FY2012 as well... did i miss something?

[nishant2200]

This means we could get anywhere from 4k to 19K?

I think anywhere from 4k to 7k. 19k - 12k already got is 7k.

[whereismygclost]

so sept visa bulletin anywhere from 22-Jun-07 till 01-Aug-07?

this is spec's table :
22-Jun-07 -- 1,207 -- 2,665 -- 3,872 ---- 424
01-Jul-07 -- 1,371 -- 3,048 -- 4,419 ---- 547
08-Jul-07 -- 1,758 -- 3,409 -- 5,167 ---- 748
15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,534 -- 4,132 -- 6,666 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,089 -- 4,649 -- 7,738 -- 1,072


I think anywhere from 4k to 7k. 19k - 12k already got is 7k.

[nishant2200]

Veni, can we rest in peace now regarding 0k :) I don't think that's a possibility. I would give it a 0.01 probability now.

[TeddyKoochu]

For a simplistic calculation I will use only 2011 approvals.
EB1 I 140's approved in 2011 are 8712. However this report is dated Jul 19th So probably the data maybe from Jul 01 itself. So we should extrapolate this data for 12 months proportionately this would be 12/9 * 8712 = 11616.
I would like to assume the dependent factor for EB1 to be slightly higher; especially the EB1 C folks however lets use 2.25 and assume a 100% throughput to 485 approvals. This gives the approximate usage to ~ 26K. If we would have assumed the dependent factor to be 2.5 then the usage comes to 29K. Averaging this out we can settle at 27.5K.
Also note that there is an unprecedented level of EB1 backlog there is likelihood that in addition to this year some old cases will be approved. There are several examples on Trackitt for concurrently filed cases wherein people see direct approval of the 485 itself because both 140 and 485 are processed in parallel with 140 being the tougher part. The SOFAD from EB1 being ~ 12K is very much in line with all calculations.
I agree with Veni on the ball park figure of 32K SOFAD being already used with this there may not be more than 2-3K (From all sources) left for September. Additionally porting has now started in EB2 ROW as well because EB3 ROW have not moved much this year, EB2 ROW approvals are fairly consistent on Trackitt. I believe that the line for the September bulletin if its truely for approval puposes will be somewhere in Jun 2007.

[neospeed]

Not only Eb1 usage we also need to look at eb2 row-M-P usage for overall sofd

[veni001]

Veni

I am in the process of learning number crunching . Please bear with my questions .

you have completely omitted 5.6 K IC quota from the totals ( If not pls clarify)

If so ......then SOFAD = 140K- { (55345-4.8)*2 + (5.6) }

= approx 33k

Kanmani,
Total AOS and CP demand calculated( Q1+Q2 )= 55.3k which include 2.8k EB2I approvals( based on CO statement) and 2k EB2C approvals(based on EB2C - PD movement)

All approvals for Q1+Q2 not including EB2IC = 55.3-4.8 = 50.5k , at this rate full year demand as 50.5*2 = 101k (not including EB2IC approvals, since it will be counted towards net SOFAD)

Now total SOFAD to EB2IC = 140 -101 = 39K

Hope this makes it clear.

[iatiam]

Fellas, I am one of the "guests" who has been lurking in the background reading all the posts but not contributing to any thing in the forum. I registered a few minutes back and I am writing to let all of you know how much I appreciate the great contributions made by every one to this forum. I happened to visit the charity section of the forum and found the link to Sankara Netralaya. Happy to say that I have signed up for monthly contributions to the charity.I am impressed to find that even those questions which sound silly to me ("when will my date be current") are answered with patience. So again, I thank you for all the work done in bringing clarity to this otherwise completely unclear immigration process . May all be greened soon.

Regards

IATIAM

[nishant2200]

For a simplistic calculation I will use only 2011 approvals.
EB1 I 140's approved in 2011 are 8712. However this report is dated Jul 19th So probably the data maybe from Jul 01 itself. So we should extrapolate this data for 12 months proportionately this would be 12/9 * 8712 = 11616.
I would like to assume the dependent factor for EB1 to be slightly higher; especially the EB1 C folks however lets use 2.25 and assume a 100% throughput to 485 approvals. This gives the approximate usage to ~ 26K. If we would have assumed the dependent factor to be 2.5 then the usage comes to 29K. Averaging this out we can settle at 27.5K.
Also note that there is an unprecedented level of EB1 backlog there is likelihood that in addition to this year some old cases will be approved. There are several examples on Trackitt for concurrently filed cases wherein people see direct approval of the 485 itself because both 140 and 485 are processed in parallel with 140 being the tougher part. The SOFAD from EB1 being ~ 12K is very much in line with all calculations.
I agree with Veni on the ball park figure of 32K SOFAD being already used with this there may not be more than 2-3K (From all sources) left for September. Additionally porting has now started in EB2 ROW as well because EB3 ROW have not moved much this year, EB2 ROW approvals are fairly consistent on Trackitt. I believe that the line for the September bulletin if its truely for approval puposes will be somewhere in Jun 2007.

garibi mei atta gila :D

sometimes I wish I was born few months earlier, would have been then in early mid 2007 PD, if all other laws of physics hold true.

[veni001]

Guys, it looks like only 4401 (RFE) applications are pending.. which means we can get FY2011 kind of SOFAD in FY2012 as well... did i miss something?


DOL data shows surge in PERM filing ( discussed few pages back) so EB2 ROWMP will be key for net 2012 SOFAD calculations. We need to wait until Q3-Q4 PERM data release.


bottom line guys ..whats the prediction final date for sep visa bulletin? as per spec's table 7k will lead to almost 1-Aug-2007? or is it only 4K?

Looks like good possibility for upto 7k, at this point!


Veni, can we rest in peace now regarding 0k :) I don't think that's a possibility. I would give it a 0.01 probability now.
Agree, but it's hard to believe in USCIS :) based on their history.

[veni001]

Full year demand 101K does not include 5.6 K correct ? so where is that 5.6K ?

Kanmani,
5.6k is part of the net SOFAD(39k) or you can break it as

EB2IC regular quota - 5.6k and,
SOFAD from EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB5 - 33.4k

[TeddyKoochu]

Veni, can we rest in peace now regarding 0k :) I don't think that's a possibility. I would give it a 0.01 probability now.

Nishant the possibility for both the extremes 0 and 7K is extremely minimum the answer is probably closer to the middle. The extremes are theoretical possibilities at best. Roughly 30-32K SOFAD has happened, another 7K happening is the best of the best case scenario and nothing happening is way way too conservative. Realistically the pace of the September bulletin should be slightly less than Aug which was only 2.5K. Even though this may seem theoretical in reality the range for September seems to be in the range 2.5K to 3K. Even last year September was more of a finisher month this maybe even more true because Jul was way too long a shot they tested the waters sufficiently in July. Lets hope for the best in September. The only possibility of 7-8K movement is if the agencies are slightly unsure of Eb1 + EB2 ROW and they may just move the dates to 15-AUG-2007 to play safe. If that happens then only some not all people current will get approved.

[bieber]

garibi mei atta gila :D

sometimes I wish I was born few months earlier, would have been then in early mid 2007 PD, if all other laws of physics hold true.

on a lighter note, if all the laws hold true, everybody else would have been earlier too, so your net position remains unchanged

[bieber]

Full year demand 101K does not include 5.6 K correct ? so where is that 5.6K ?

It's in the 39k

Total EB2IC = 39k, quota = 5.6k, Spillover from Eb5,Eb1,Eb2-ROW is 39 - 5.6 = 33.4k

[TeddyKoochu]

Kanmani,
Total AOS and CP demand calculated( Q1+Q2 )= 55.3k which include 2.8k EB2I approvals( based on CO statement) and 2k EB2C approvals(based on EB2C - PD movement)

All approvals for Q1+Q2 not including EB2IC = 55.3-4.8 = 50.5k , at this rate full year demand as 50.5*2 = 101k (not including EB2IC approvals, since it will be counted towards net SOFAD)

Now total SOFAD to EB2IC = 140 -101 = 39K

Hope this makes it clear.


Veni I believe you should use 2.25 as the dependent factor, 2 maybe very liberal, this will actually reduce the SOFAD by 12K.

[soggadu]

Fellas, I am one of the "guests" who has been lurking in the background reading all the posts but not contributing to any thing in the forum. I registered a few minutes back and I am writing to let all of you know how much I appreciate the great contributions made by every one to this forum. I happened to visit the charity section of the forum and found the link to Sankara Netralaya. Happy to say that I have signed up for monthly contributions to the charity.I am impressed to find that even those questions which sound silly to me ("when will my date be current") are answered with patience. So again, I thank you for all the work done in bringing clarity to this otherwise completely unclear immigration process . May all be greened soon.

Regards

IATIAM

Very good deed done by you... Welcome to the forum officially...

[qesehmk]

garibi mei atta gila :D

cute one! I will say ... "uskee chapati banao". Be a cat that falls on its four feet no matter from where it falls down.

[qesehmk]

IATIAM .... you have a large heart. God bless you.


Fellas, I am one of the "guests" who has been lurking in the background reading all the posts but not contributing to any thing in the forum. I registered a few minutes back and I am writing to let all of you know how much I appreciate the great contributions made by every one to this forum. I happened to visit the charity section of the forum and found the link to Sankara Netralaya. Happy to say that I have signed up for monthly contributions to the charity.I am impressed to find that even those questions which sound silly to me ("when will my date be current") are answered with patience. So again, I thank you for all the work done in bringing clarity to this otherwise completely unclear immigration process . May all be greened soon.

Regards

IATIAM

[soggadu]

Thank you Veni for the breakdown and clarification . It makes sense now .
I thought Spill over visas are extra numbers from other EB classifications . I just learnt the usual quota is also included in the SOFAD .


Thank you Bieber

JJ bhai i think SO is spilover which we get from EB1/ROW etc and SOFAD is term used to include across and down spillover which means everything included from inside and out...

[soggadu]

Veni I believe you should use 2.25 as the dependent factor, 2 maybe very liberal, this will actually reduce the SOFAD by 12K.

Teddy.... veni might have used 2 because this ratio is applied for all over EB category than just EB2 IC... just wondering...

[veni001]

Veni thanks. I understood 13%. Great way of looking at it. What about 25% and 10 and 5%? Whats teh logic?




Q,
You are correct, 4.5K denials = 100%, i have updated my post above.
Once we assume one variable (X) we can bring it down to two variables and two equations with Y>Z constraint.

Q,
When i plug 19% EB1 denial ratio (FY 2011 data) in the equations then based on PERM breakdown
EB2-i140 denial rate will be ~13% and EB3-i140 denial rate will be ~3%.

[veni001]

Veni thanks. I understood 13%. Great way of looking at it. What about 25% and 10 and 5%? Whats teh logic?


Spec you are right. CP is incremental. But now that has made it complicated since CP should be at least 10K. Right?
As per beating this to death ... it always helps to look at it from multiple angles. May be we used this data source. May be I am being senile!



The difference is backlog (ALL ... not just EB2IC though).


Teddy.... veni might have used 2 because this ratio is applied for all over EB category than just EB2 IC... just wondering...

I am using 2.4 from EB1-140 to 485 ratio based info from our FACTS AND DATA section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics))

My approach is use 10 months EB1-i140 approval data and 10-01-2010 EB1 pending inventory to calculate FY 2011 EB1 demand.

[neospeed]

http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png

In the above article, what does he referring to:

The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases. It is not too bad at all for the Indian and Chinese EB-2 waiters

[pch053]

Nishant the possibility for both the extremes 0 and 7K is extremely minimum the answer is probably closer to the middle. The extremes are theoretical possibilities at best. Roughly 30-32K SOFAD has happened, another 7K happening is the best of the best case scenario and nothing happening is way way too conservative. Realistically the pace of the September bulletin should be slightly less than Aug which was only 2.5K. Even though this may seem theoretical in reality the range for September seems to be in the range 2.5K to 3K. Even last year September was more of a finisher month this maybe even more true because Jul was way too long a shot they tested the waters sufficiently in July. Lets hope for the best in September. The only possibility of 7-8K movement is if the agencies are slightly unsure of Eb1 + EB2 ROW and they may just move the dates to 15-AUG-2007 to play safe. If that happens then only some not all people current will get approved.

Teddy,
My feeling (not backed by thorough number crunching though, just my hunch) is also similar to what you are saying that reality might be somewhere between two extremes of 0K and 7K and going by last year's trend, the Sep bulletin was more like putting the finishing touches on the yearly spillover. I will surely be happy if I am proven wrong and the option of dates moving to Aug'07 even though all the current PDs don't get approval should be also a good thing. In this scenario, at least all the PWMBs can apply for I485 and from next year onwards, PWMB will be a thing of the past!

[Spectator]

I think I am pretty much in line with TK.

There appears to be a mistake in the table for NSC 2010 RFE. Either the total is 4,003 based on 2,470 EB1C RFE, or it is the 3,003 shown, in which case the EB1C total should probably be 1,470.

Based on prorating the numbers for the rest of the year then I saw the following.

Receipts for 2011 would be 17.6k which is slightly higher than 2010.

Approvals for 2011 would be 10.9k, a reduction of 20.5% based on 2010.

At the fairly constant rate of 2.4 I-485 approvals per I-140 for EB1, this would translate to 26.2k. I feel that is possible slightly high.

Using Approvals and Denials as Completions, the Denial Rate in 2010 was 22% and is 19% in 2011 to date.

Broken down, the denial rates were :

2010
EB1A -- 40%
EB1B --- 9%
EB1C -- 16%

2011 to Date
EB1A -- 38%
EB1B --- 8%
EB1C -- 11%

The lower approvals seems to reflect much longer processing times.

The RFE rates were 38% in 2010 and 31% in 2011 to date based on the receipt numbers, although it is not clear whether RFEs also include previously backlogged cases as well.

Unless there are many more adjudicators handling EB1 cases at TSC, those people can expect a much longer wait for adjudication.

The % breakdown of Approvals per sub category in 2011 to date is :

EB1A -- 24%
EB1B -- 26%
EB1C -- 50%

which isn't that much different from last year.

All the above said, some strange patterns in EB1 approvals can be seen in the final 2 months of the FY. It is difficult to tell what will happen this year. There are factors for both continued healthy approvals and the drop usually seen.

Given the backlog, my best guess would be around 24k EB1 approvals for the year, although it could be slightly higher or lower. August will be an interesting month to watch.

[TeddyKoochu]

I am using 2.4 from EB1-140 to 485 ratio based info from our FACTS AND DATA section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics))

My approach is use 10 months EB1-i140 approval data and 10-01-2010 EB1 pending inventory to calculate FY 2011 EB1 demand.

Veni, I mis-read your multiplication was actually for the 2 quarters thanks for clarifying. We are coming up with different outcomes and values based on different approaches. I will definitely hope that you are right. Sogaddu, Veni calculation is great :).

[Spectator]

http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png

In the above article, what does he referring to:

The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases. It is not too bad at all for the Indian and Chinese EB-2 waitersneospeed,

You are not alone.

I couldn't work out what that statement meant either!

[soggadu]

Soggadu

SO and SOFAD both gives the same meaning visas spilled from other categories . I dont find any diff

they may sound as same but i think the difference is with including the regular quota for IC in SOFAD..otherwise why would we have two acronyms... my lay man logic...

[soggadu]

http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png

In the above article, what does he referring to:

The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases. It is not too bad at all for the Indian and Chinese EB-2 waiters

Wait a minute... so as of July 2011 only 4200 EB1 140 approvals...if we can treat this document official, then why are we doing other calculations... 4200*2.x = ~8.5K ... if we even consider prev years 140's etc... we should still have atleast 20K+ from EB1 right... why are we not considering this document????

[veni001]

The following is the breakdown i derived after going through various data sources for Q1&Q2

I140 Denials(Average EB1-2-3)

FY2011(Q1+Q2)
Completions = 35,3331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (~13%)

If we take EB1 denial rate as 25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at 10% and EB3 will be at 5%.

AOS(485) Breakdown (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics))

EB1 = 10,692 (including ROW-M-P EB2 NIW)
EB2ROWMP = 13,645
EB2I = 2,800
EB2C = 2,000
EB3 = 12,563
EB4 = 4,690
EB5 = 419
Total AOS approvals = 46,812
USCIS Data shows 45,981 (diff =1.8% )

CP Breakdown (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics))(Based on AOS Vs CP %)

EB1 = 1,253
EB2 = 599
EB3 = 3,969
EB4 = 1,735
EB5 = 978
Total CP approvals = 8,533
Total EB Usage(Q1+Q2) = AOS+CP = 55,345





http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png

In the above article, what does he referring to:

The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases. It is not too bad at all for the Indian and Chinese EB-2 waiters


neospeed,

You are not alone.

I couldn't work out what that statement meant either!

Spec; neospeed,

Even though i have used 25% EB1 denial rate in my above analysis (actual is 19%), EB1 usage (AOS & CP) per month is averaging about 2k.
Since the EB1-i140 data is dated July 19, 2011, i am assuming that it is referring estimated EB1 usage for August and September.

[soggadu]

Spec; neospeed,

Even though i have used 25% EB1 denial rate in my above analysis, EB1 usage (AOS & CP) per month is averaging about 2k.
Since the EB1-i140 data is dated July 19, 2011, i am assuming that it is referring estimated EB1 usage for August and September.

Veni...it is clearly stated that "The statistics reflect that as of JULY 2011 the usage is 4.2K..." very clear that it is for the current FY upto July ... bache log... if this document is true... 20K + more from EB1... then the question why didnt they move the dates in August if that is the case... god...i hate who ever invented the words "if" and "but"... or might be there is more to the document which we need to read...

[veni001]

Veni...it is clearly stated that "The statistics reflect that as of JULY 2011 the usage is 4.2K..." very clear that it is for the current FY upto July ... bache log... if this document is true... 20K + more from EB1... then the question why didnt they move the dates in August if that is the case... god...i hate who ever invented the words "if" and "but"...

soggadu,
Here is the language....i am not an attorney :)

"Since it is a statistics compiled as of July 19, 2011, it is fresh enough to get the picture of the two Service Center's I-140 processing volumes and processing backlogs in EB-1 category and total annual EB-1 numbers consumed or to be consumed by the end of this fiscal year. The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases."

[familyguy]

4.2K number is not from the official document... I think attorney added some masala (comments) :)...

[soggadu]

soggadu,
Here is the language....i am not an attorney :)

"Since it is a statistics compiled as of July 19, 2011, it is fresh enough to get the picture of the two Service Center's I-140 processing volumes and processing backlogs in EB-1 category and total annual EB-1 numbers consumed or to be consumed by the end of this fiscal year. The statistics reflect that as of July 19, 2011, the total EB-1 number that will consume is estimated to be less than 4,200, excluding denied cases."

"total annual EB-1 numbers consumed or to be consumed by the end of this fiscal year" ...doesnt it mean total annual number? here they use "or to be consumed" clause so that might be the reason why they used "Will consume" instead... then what is the 8.7K total number then?... might be out of 8.7K total approvals only 4.2K approvals are used for approving 485's?

[veni001]

These statistics are for I-140, so a further 4.2k I-140 would translate to 10k I-485.

Adding the 4.2k to the 8.7k already approved would give around 31k I-485.

Adding 4.2k I-485 approvals to the 21k implied by the I-140 figures to date would give 25.1k I-485 approvals, which sounds fairly sensible. If that were the case, the "excluding denied cases" is totally superfluous.

I still can't work out what is means, given the language used.

Spec,
The document is referring "EB-1 numbers consumed..." which i would take it as 485 instead of i140.

[veni001]

"total annual EB-1 numbers consumed or to be consumed by the end of this fiscal year" ...doesnt it mean total annual number? here they use "or to be consumed" clause so that might be the reason why they used "Will consume" instead...

soggadu,
As i said i am not very good at interpreting language used by attorneys :(, but based on the trending (FY2011 to-date) i would take it as estimated EB1 usage for August and September.

[soggadu]

soggadu,
As i said i am not very good at interpreting language used by attorneys :(, but based on the trending (FY2011 to-date) i would take it as estimated EB1 usage for August and September.

i understand veni...all of us are trying to get the best out of it in our opinion's... my final take before i shut my brains off... 4.2K total 140 turing into 8.7K 485, i know not very convincing but... over and out...

[qesehmk]

Friends thanks to neospeed the data is quite useful. It establishes the biggest piece in SOFAD which is EB1. Looking at the data ... its clear EB1 will yield about 17K SOFAD (i.e. 23K full year usage.). Can the usage be more or less? Its possible. But the trend is towards 17K SOFAD which is wonderfully supported by trackitt calculations as well. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections

So its quite reasonable to assume that the mean of the two projections in the link above is a reasonable estimate. i.e. 29K net SOFAD. Adding 5.6K EB2IC brings to 34.6K as mean scenario which predicts teh dates to be in first week of JULY if the movement is SFM.

Its absolutely possible that the movement could be larger than that but then that would be BTM.

p.s. - In terms of receipts one can clearly see that the fundamental demand hasn't come down at all between 2010 and 2011. In fact even denial rate was higher in 2010 than 2011. Its the suspended state of many 140s in RFEs which is a beneficial thing for EB2ICs. On another note if in 2010 there weren't the ROW PERM surge in Q2/Q3 then EB2IC would already start the year at Mar 2007 in OCt 2010. But that not meant to be!



Additionally porting has now started in EB2 ROW as well because EB3 ROW have not moved much this year
Teddy is it significant enough to make a dent? EB3IC which are large buckets are not seeing any significant porting (2-3K max). So how much do you think ROW will offer? Besides porting is not just a function of applicant's desperation, its a function of job market as well. So wonder if you think ROW will be substantial.


Kanmani,
Total AOS and CP demand calculated( Q1+Q2 )= 55.3k which include 2.8k EB2I approvals( based on CO statement) and 2k EB2C approvals(based on EB2C - PD movement)

All approvals for Q1+Q2 not including EB2IC = 55.3-4.8 = 50.5k , at this rate full year demand as 50.5*2 = 101k (not including EB2IC approvals, since it will be counted towards net SOFAD)

Now total SOFAD to EB2IC = 140 -101 = 39K

Hope this makes it clear.
That was the simplistic approach I had used earlier but Spec rightly pointed out that CP numbers are not in there. So 39K is not realistic.


Q,
When i plug 19% EB1 denial ratio (FY 2011 data) in the equations then based on PERM breakdown
EB2-i140 denial rate will be ~13% and EB3-i140 denial rate will be ~3%.
Thats great! I am feeling quite comfortable about EB1 SOFAD at around 17K.



There appears to be a mistake in the table for NSC 2010 RFE. Either the total is 4,003 based on 2,470 EB1C RFE, or it is the 3,003 shown, in which case the EB1C total should probably be 1,470.


Spec I think the reason those numbers don't add up is because they are not additive. There are ebs and flows of USCIS processing and only show snapshot of their work in progress.

[skpanda]

Veni...it is clearly stated that "The statistics reflect that as of JULY 2011 the usage is 4.2K..." very clear that it is for the current FY upto July ... bache log... if this document is true... 20K + more from EB1... then the question why didnt they move the dates in August if that is the case... god...i hate who ever invented the words "if" and "but"... or might be there is more to the document which we need to read...

Statment may be a mistake:

From the Table -
In 2011 - There were
13,794 Receipts <-> 8712 Approvals (includes some RFEs that got approved) <-> 1998 Denials <-> 4401 RFEs (includes some RFEs that got approved later)

This to me means 8712 Approvals have already happened i.e. 19,602 numbers are gone (8712 * 2.25 for family). There could be atleast 2 to 3K numbers consumption for EB1 for rest of the FY 2011. This would yild us around 18 to 19K SOFAD from EB1.

PS: In my opinion, some of the RFEs that got approved later on are double counted in Approvals and RFEs.

I could be wrong.. but this is my understanding. Please feel free to tear my logic apart.

[Spectator]

Veni,

I was being picky and have deleted my post.

I think we can all agree it is very poorly worded.

I agree on balance, it is talking about I-485. But the article is about I-140.

No mention is made of I-485 in the entire article. There is no context given to the comment. We can work out how many I-485 might have been consumed to date - most people cannot.

So to say 4,200 for the rest of the year, without saying how many might have already been consumed adds no value. And what do denied cases have to do with it - they will never become additions. Why not just say approvals?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy is it significant enough to make a dent? EB3IC which are large buckets are not seeing any significant porting (2-3K max). So how much do you think ROW will offer? Besides porting is not just a function of applicant's desperation, its a function of job market as well. So wonder if you think ROW will be substantial.

I read several instances on Trackitt that people with EB3 ROW 2006 PD are porting or considering porting, for ROW I don’t think its appropriate to call it porting a new application in EB2 works well. This trend is beginning to pickup this year because EB3 ROW folks are frustrated with the way it is moving for a variety of reasons. The numbers would be less than what we are used to see for India but It would not be surprising if this causes up 2K uptick in EB2 ROW demand.

[nishant2200]

when we say there is delays in processing of EB1 and huge backlog, which may impact next year, doesn't it also mean that apps coming in into next year will also be hence actually be given visas late, assuming the delays remain same, and hence effectively this wont affect SOFAD next year, unless they ramp up processing times.

[veni001]

That was the simplistic approach I had used earlier but Spec rightly pointed out that CP numbers are not in there. So 39K is not realistic.



Q,
If you look at my calculation it does include CP based on (AOS/CP ratios (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics))), in any event the difference is only 4k net at the end.


Veni,

I was being picky and have deleted my post.

I think we can all agree it is very poorly worded.

I agree on balance, it is talking about I-485. But the article is about I-140.

No mention is made of I-485 in the entire article. There is no context given to the comment. We can work out how many I-485 might have been consumed to date - most people cannot.

So to say 4,200 for the rest of the year, without saying how many might have already been consumed adds no value. And what do denied cases have to do with it - they will never become additions. Why not just say approvals?

Spec,
Agree.

[Spectator]

when we say there is delays in processing of EB1 and huge backlog, which may impact next year, doesn't it also mean that apps coming in into next year will also be hence actually be given visas late, assuming the delays remain same, and hence effectively this wont affect SOFAD next year, unless they ramp up processing times.nishant,

That's a fair point, but this is how I look at it.

Processing times have increased this year by (for example) 3 months. So, 3 months worth of applications would have missed approval this year. So in effect, we only have 9/12 worth of approvals this year.

If nothing changes, we will have 12/12 next year, so an increase.

If processing times decreased to the previous level, we might get 15/12 in a year. Unlikely.

Only if processing times increased a further 3 months next year would the same number of approvals be seen.

Don't get hung up on the actual numbers, they are an example only to illustrate the point..

[soggadu]

nishant,

That's a fair point, but this is how I look at it.

Processing times have increased this year by (for example) 3 months. So, 3 months worth of applications would have missed approval this year. So in effect, we only have 9/12 worth of approvals this year.

If nothing changes, we will have 12/12 next year, so an increase.

If processing times decreased to the previous level, we might get 15/12 in a year. Unlikely.

Only if processing times increased a further 3 months next year would the same number of approvals be seen.

Don't get hung up on the actual numbers, they are an example only to illustrate the point..

very meaningful explanation...good point...

[Spectator]

I don't know if this is of any interest to anyone.

Based on the average rate of usage to date and purely prorating the numbers to the end of the year, EB1 and EB2-ROW would end up at:

EB1 -------- 25,145
EB2-ROW -- 24,648

Generally, EB2-ROW has hovered at around that + or - for some time. EB1 has been nearer 24k + or -.

You would need to add EB2-MP to those figures - I would guess around 3-3.5k. I don't have any good data on those.

[soggadu]

I read several instances on Trackitt that people with EB3 ROW 2006 PD are porting or considering porting, for ROW I don’t think its appropriate to call it porting a new application in EB2 works well. This trend is beginning to pickup this year because EB3 ROW folks are frustrated with the way it is moving for a variety of reasons. The numbers would be less than what we are used to see for India but It would not be surprising if this causes up 2K uptick in EB2 ROW demand.

Teddy and others... If per country limit is removed for IC...then will EB2 ROW be current? little offtopic but i had this question .... this may also discourage EB3 ROW to port...

P.S. I am not at all making this as a discussion grounds for merits and demerits of the per country limits issue... please take my question as it is...

[soggadu]

I don't know if this is of any interest to anyone.

Based on the average rate of usage to date and purely prorating the numbers to the end of the year, EB1 and EB2-ROW would end up at:

EB1 -------- 25,145
EB2-ROW -- 24,648

Generally, EB2-ROW has hovered at around that + or - for some time. EB1 has been nearer 24k + or -.

You would need to add EB2-MP to those figures - I would guess around 3-3.5k. I don't have any good data on those.

Spec... good post... so in theory... when CO opened SO from EB1 this year, he was of the opinion that EB1 would not be able to use its regular numbers (24K) right... so doesnt this point us to more SO from EB1 itself... ~20K ( as 16K SO is usual from your numbers )...or did anything really change since Apr 2011?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy and others... If per country limit is removed for IC...then will EB2 ROW be current? little offtopic but i had this question .... this may also discourage EB3 ROW to port...

P.S. I am not at all making this as a discussion grounds for merits and demerits of the per country limits issue... please take my question as it is...

Currently there is 75-80K I/C demand + 10K ROW demand for EB2. So in theory if the country limits were abolished today EB2PD will be somewhere in Q1 2008.

[bieber]

Veni

for fy2010, the calculations you made for EB1, based on (total 140 receipts - Perm), is around 7000

while http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png shows fy2010 total EB1 receipts 16,894

I know perm numbers will not immediately materialize into 140 receipts considering the time it takes for perm to be approved and the front and back numbers should cancel each other.
But the magnitude of inequality (almost double the number) is not suggesting just that

What's ur take?

[neospeed]

Veni

for fy2010, the calculations you made for EB1, based on (total 140 receipts - Perm), is around 7000

while http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png shows fy2010 total EB1 receipts 16,894

I know perm numbers will not immediately materialize into 140 receipts considering the time it takes for perm to be approved and the front and back numbers should cancel each other.
But the magnitude of inequality (almost double the number) is not suggesting that

What's ur take?

Hmm i believe no perm for eb1 ?.

[bieber]

Hmm i believe no perm for eb1 ?.

yes, total 140 receipts - perm (eb2+eb3) = total eb1 receipts

[geterdone]

I have a general question and this has nothing to do with number crunching, so remove/delete if it is not appropriate. After the start of recession has there been a significant reduction in GC filing in EB2 I? The key word here is significant.
Also are more people returning to India due to improved opportunities there or lack of opportunities here? I don't have a large circle of indian friends, so I am trying to get this information here.
Thanks

[nishant2200]

Unless more data comes in, my final take now after today's information, for September 2011 bulletin is:

1st June 2007 with 3k movement.

I think EB1 approvals will pick up some steam beginning 1st August.

(This is unless they have some idea of a BTM, to which I don't know what probability to assign to. My heart wants it, but somehow my mind is saying they will wait and see until late Q2 FY 2012)

[veni001]

Hmm i believe no perm for eb1 ?.

You are correct, that's why we are using PERM data and i140 receipts from USCIS dashboardto derive EB1-i140 data.


Veni

for fy2010, the calculations you made for EB1, based on (total 140 receipts - Perm), is around 7000

while http://i52.tinypic.com/neuxqf.png shows fy2010 total EB1 receipts 16,894

I know perm numbers will not immediately materialize into 140 receipts considering the time it takes for perm to be approved and the front and back numbers should cancel each other.
But the magnitude of inequality (almost double the number) is not suggesting that

What's ur take?

bieber,
Very good point, which is bringing very good observation. After thoroughly examining the monthly PERM & i140 data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) , off set between PERM approval and i140 receipt is 2 months. Once you take this into account then i140 receipts data from USCIS dashboard matches with PERM approvals+EB1 i140 (validates FY2010 as well as FY2011 to-date)

[soggadu]

Unless more data comes in, my final take now after today's information, for September 2011 bulletin is:

1st June 2007 with 3k movement.

I think EB1 approvals will pick up some steam beginning 1st August.

(This is unless they have some idea of a BTM, to which I don't know what probability to assign to. My heart wants it, but somehow my mind is saying they will wait and see until late Q2 FY 2012)

Abhi final mat Karo yaar... Aur dus din bore hojayenge....

[bieber]

bieber,
Very good point, which is bringing very good observation. After thoroughly examining the monthly PERM & i140 data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) , off set between PERM approval and i140 receipt is 2 months. Once you take this into account then i140 receipts data from USCIS dashboard matches with PERM approvals+EB1 i140 (validates FY2010 as well as FY2011 to-date)

So, instead of using the PD if we use (approval date + 2 months) that will yield the exact EB1 140 numbers?

I was hoping either you or spec will discover something in the lines of just considering certified or certified+expired but that's a lot to expect :)

[veni001]

So, instead of using the PD if we use (approval date + 2 months) that will yield the exact EB1 140 numbers?

I was hoping either you or spec will discover something in the lines of just considering certified or certified+expired but that's a lot to expect :)

bieber,
That's correct. Not exact number but very close.

I think we beat Certified/Ciertified+Expired PERM discussion to death long time back :)

[veni001]

Few more observations from EB1-i140 statistics:

EB1 -i140 completions (not including RFEs)
FY2010
13,744+3,886 = 17,630 (Avg. 1,500 per month)
FY2011 to-date
8,712+1,998 = 10,710 (Avg. 1,100 per month)

EB1-i140 completions are 4% more than the receipts in FY2010.
EB1-i140 completions are 24% less than the receipts in FY2011 to-date.

2011 to-date receipts compared to 2010 receipts:
EB11 - 3% decrease
EB12 - 3% decrease
EB13 - 6% increase

[Stemcell]

Guys,
The demand data as of July shows 6000 odd EB2I pending. Assuming by September the demand drops to 4000, starting next fiscal quota in October, will EB2 take in 2800 in one go as there is demand pending or will it allocate ~250 per month ?

[veni001]

Guys,
The demand data as of July shows 6000 odd EB2I pending. Assuming by September the demand drops to 4000, starting next fiscal quota in October, will EB2 take in 2800 in one go as there is demand pending or will it allocate ~250 per month ?

Stemcell,
In theory USCIS has to stick to monthly/quarterly limits from Q1-Q3. But based on the leads received for FY2011, USCIS issued all 2.8k to EB2I in the first half (Q1+Q2) of the year (~500 per month).
IMHO, as long as EB1 usage is low then USCIS may repeat the same for FY2012!

[Spectator]

Guys,
The demand data as of July shows 6000 odd EB2I pending. Assuming by September the demand drops to 4000, starting next fiscal quota in October, will EB2 take in 2800 in one go as there is demand pending or will it allocate ~250 per month ?Stemcell,

I agree with Veni.

The law proscribes that only a maximum of 27% of the total visas can be issued in each of the first three quarters.

Over the last 2 years, DOS has shown themselves to be quite creative within this law and has allocated 5-600 visas per month to EB2-I at the beginning of the year. I think they were able to do this without breaking the OVERALL limit for the month.

Perhaps more worrying is that the EB1 statistics just released suggest far higher approvals in FY2012 and that the low approvals in FY2011 are more a function of longer processing times than lower actual demand.

That may ties DOS hand in how many visas they can say will be unused, which is vital to strong movement earlier than July.

It will be interesting to see how DOS handle that. They may have to flout the law a bit to get the next batch of cases beyond July 2007 in time to stand a chance of USCIS adjudicating them within FY2012.

[Stemcell]

Stemcell,

I agree with Veni.

The law proscribes that only a maximum of 27% of the total visas can be issued in each of the first three quarters.

Over the last 2 years, DOS has shown themselves to be quite creative within this law and has allocated 5-600 visas per month to EB2-I at the beginning of the year. I think they were able to do this without breaking the OVERALL limit for the month.

Perhaps more worrying is that the EB1 statistics just released suggest far higher approvals in FY2012 and that the low approvals in FY2011 are more a function of longer processing times than lower actual demand.

That may ties DOS hand in how many visas they can say will be unused, which is vital to strong movement earlier than July.

It will be interesting to see how DOS handle that. They may have to flout the law a bit to get the next batch of cases beyond July 2007 in time to stand a chance of USCIS adjudicating them within FY2012.


Thank you Veni and Spec.

[nishant2200]

In 2010, found that Sep bulletin was released on the aug 9th, monday of the second business week. Hence maybe, we can expect it this year on the 8th, similar monday.

[veni001]

In 2010, found that Sep bulletin was released on the aug 9th, monday of the second business week. Hence maybe, we can expect it this year on the 8th, similar monday.

nishant,
Hopefully demand data on Monday(08/08) and Bulletin on Tuesday (08/09)

[Spectator]

I've been looking at these a bit further to try to understand what it might mean for next year.

First there is a slight inconsistency with the 2010 figures.

We know that there were 41,026 I-485 approvals in FY2010

The figures show 13,744 total EB1 I-140 approvals for 2010.

This gives a ratio of 2.99 to reach 41,026. We know from the DHS Statistics that the ratio was 2.4, so this is inconsistent.

Taking the figures at face value and assuming the same conversion ratios as 2010, 17,676 prorated receipts in 2011 should have turned into 14,380 I-140 approvals, which would be around 35k I-485 approvals. In fact, because denial rates are slightly lower in 2011, the number would be slightly higher than that.

If we assume that the FY2011 figure will actually become 26k I-485 approvals, then that is c. 25% less than expected (about 3 months worth).

If we assume that everything continues at the present rate in 2012, then we might expect at least 35k EB1 I-485 approvals in FY2012. The substantially lower denial rate on EB1C, if continued, would bring the figure over the 40k allocation.

This might cause some concern for spillover numbers in FY2012, since it suggests that EB1 will not contribute very much next year, when it has been the major contributor this year.

Bear in mind that the above makes quite a few assumptions and is a rather rough calculation.

This is not something we didn't know already, but I wanted to start the process of quantifying it and prompting discussion.

[nishant2200]

agreed. early 2nd week it is.

nishant,
Hopefully demand data on Monday(08/08) and Bulletin on Tuesday (08/09)

[nishant2200]

thank you !

nishant,

That's a fair point, but this is how I look at it.

Processing times have increased this year by (for example) 3 months. So, 3 months worth of applications would have missed approval this year. So in effect, we only have 9/12 worth of approvals this year.

If nothing changes, we will have 12/12 next year, so an increase.

If processing times decreased to the previous level, we might get 15/12 in a year. Unlikely.

Only if processing times increased a further 3 months next year would the same number of approvals be seen.

Don't get hung up on the actual numbers, they are an example only to illustrate the point..

[kd2008]

Spec,

The 2010 I-485 approvals had a quite a few cases whose I-140 was approved in 2009. The same thing happened this year. Quite a few I-485 approvals this year had their I-140 approved in 2010.

I think that data is good for two purposes: Understanding denial rates for EB-1 and %age of EB1 applications out of the total pool of I-140 applications.

[nishant2200]

One thing totally apparent to me is the stupid rule of one visa number per dependent. Suppose it was not so, then just 14k EB1, leading to 26k SO to EB2, which would clean out 55k 485s, even if the rule begins being applied right now, EB2 would have around a 2 year wait only at worst. Sorry for digressing, couldn't help but see the benefits of this hypothetical proposal. I think this one, plus of course re-capture, are the two most uncontroversial and suitable proposals in a legislative fix.


I've been looking at these a bit further to try to understand what it might mean for next year.

First there is a slight inconsistency with the 2010 figures.

We know that there were 41,026 I-485 approvals in FY2010

The figures show 13,744 total EB1 I-140 approvals for 2010.

This gives a ratio of 2.99 to reach 41,026. We know from the DHS Statistics that the ratio was 2.4, so this is inconsistent.

Taking the figures at face value and assuming the same conversion ratios as 2010, 17,676 prorated receipts in 2011 should have turned into 14,380 I-140 approvals, which would be around 35k I-485 approvals. In fact, because denial rates are slightly lower in 2011, the number would be slightly higher than that.

If we assume that the FY2011 figure will actually become 26k I-485 approvals, then that is c. 25% less than expected (about 3 months worth).

If we assume that everything continues at the present rate in 2012, then we might expect at least 35k EB1 I-485 approvals in FY2012. The substantially lower denial rate on EB1C, if continued, would bring the figure over the 40k allocation.

This might cause some concern for spillover numbers in FY2012, since it suggests that EB1 will not contribute very much next year, when it has been the major contributor this year.

Bear in mind that the above makes quite a few assumptions and is a rather rough calculation.

This is not something we didn't know already, but I wanted to start the process of quantifying it and prompting discussion.

[pch053]

One thing I am a bit puzzled is that if the denial rate of EB1 (especially EB1C) is lower in 2011 than 2010, then why are we having so few EB1 approvals in 2011 as compared to 2010. Is it because the processing time of EB1 has increased substantially in 2011? Also, the primary to dependent ratio of 2.99 for 2010 (as Spec mentioned in his post) seems to be a bit on the higher side. I think Spec's earlier argument is very intuitive to understand; this year, we have 9 / 12 month worth of EB1 approvals and in the coming years we expect to have 12 / 12 months of EB1 approvals (assuming we consider similar processing times for EB1).

Now, if EB1 usage in the next year is 35K (from Spec's calculation), then the overall spillover EB2-I/C can expect is 8K (EB2-ROW+MP) + 6K (EB5) + 5K (EB1) = 19K (assuming things don't change for EB5 and EB2-ROW). EB2-ROW has a big backlog too; so, I am not sure whether it means fewer FA from EB2-ROW to EB2-I/C. This is surely a very rough calculation and has too many unknowns but with this assumption, the total # of visas that EB2-I/C will be receiving is of the order of 25K (incl. regular quota of 5.6K). I will assume that there will be 3K - 4K pending EB2-I/C applications (up to Aug'07) + approx 4K PWMB (assuming 1K will be cleared this year) + 3K - 4K EB3 -> EB2 porting. So this will account for 10K - 12K visas up to mid-Aug'07 that will be allocated next year. This will leave us with around 13K - 15K visas for the period after mid-Aug'07. Not sure how far the PDs need to move to consume these ~15K visas; maybe around early 2008? But, again this is a very very simplistic calculation and might have some flaws in my assumptions.

[veni001]

I've been looking at these a bit further to try to understand what it might mean for next year.

First there is a slight inconsistency with the 2010 figures.

We know that there were 41,026 I-485 approvals in FY2010

The figures show 13,744 total EB1 I-140 approvals for 2010.

This gives a ratio of 2.99 to reach 41,026. We know from the DHS Statistics that the ratio was 2.4, so this is inconsistent.

Taking the figures at face value and assuming the same conversion ratios as 2010, 17,676 prorated receipts in 2011 should have turned into 14,380 I-140 approvals, which would be around 35k I-485 approvals. In fact, because denial rates are slightly lower in 2011, the number would be slightly higher than that.

If we assume that the FY2011 figure will actually become 26k I-485 approvals, then that is c. 25% less than expected (about 3 months worth).

If we assume that everything continues at the present rate in 2012, then we might expect at least 35k EB1 I-485 approvals in FY2012. The substantially lower denial rate on EB1C, if continued, would bring the figure over the 40k allocation.

This might cause some concern for spillover numbers in FY2012, since it suggests that EB1 will not contribute very much next year, when it has been the major contributor this year.

Bear in mind that the above makes quite a few assumptions and is a rather rough calculation.

This is not something we didn't know already, but I wanted to start the process of quantifying it and prompting discussion.

Spec,
Please check i140 Receipts & Completion for Q4 of FY2009 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations), there are 14.5k receipts Vs 25.2k completions. If you look at the PERM approvals for the same period it is only 2.5k, which mean more than 80% receipts & completions are EB1! Considering the 485 processing times, most of these EB1-i140 approvals (FY2009-Q4) got VISA assigned from FY2010 quota.

P.S: Even if i offset 2 months from PERM approval to i140 receipt, the result is almost the same.

[nishant2200]

Pch, 2.5k a month for post mid 2007 to late 2008, per month is my thumb rule for EB2 retrogess demand, in my rough calculations from data obtained by analysis of gurus n bit of my hacking.

I am with u in ur rough estimates. I feel we will barely cross 2007, and any date movement into 2008 will mostly just help get EAD.

As years progress, EB2 itself might be just at mercy of E4, E5, FB if any, and a consistent headwind of porting.


One thing I am a bit puzzled is that if the denial rate of EB1 (especially EB1C) is lower in 2011 than 2010, then why are we having so few EB1 approvals in 2011 as compared to 2010. Is it because the processing time of EB1 has increased substantially in 2011? Also, the primary to dependent ratio of 2.99 for 2010 (as Spec mentioned in his post) seems to be a bit on the higher side. I think Spec's earlier argument is very intuitive to understand; this year, we have 9 / 12 month worth of EB1 approvals and in the coming years we expect to have 12 / 12 months of EB1 approvals (assuming we consider similar processing times for EB1).

Now, if EB1 usage in the next year is 35K (from Spec's calculation), then the overall spillover EB2-I/C can expect is 8K (EB2-ROW+MP) + 6K (EB5) + 5K (EB1) = 19K (assuming things don't change for EB5 and EB2-ROW). EB2-ROW has a big backlog too; so, I am not sure whether it means fewer FA from EB2-ROW to EB2-I/C. This is surely a very rough calculation and has too many unknowns but with this assumption, the total # of visas that EB2-I/C will be receiving is of the order of 25K (incl. regular quota of 5.6K). I will assume that there will be 3K - 4K pending EB2-I/C applications (up to Aug'07) + approx 4K PWMB (assuming 1K will be cleared this year) + 3K - 4K EB3 -> EB2 porting. So this will account for 10K - 12K visas up to mid-Aug'07 that will be allocated next year. This will leave us with around 13K - 15K visas for the period after mid-Aug'07. Not sure how far the PDs need to move to consume these ~15K visas; maybe around early 2008? But, again this is a very very simplistic calculation and might have some flaws in my assumptions.

[qesehmk]

Spec

Few days back I pointed out this possible oversight you are making. The numbers are not all on the same basis and do include ebbs and flows of the processing. Lets use some terminology to support formula

Approvals - A
Pending - P
Denied - D
I485 - 485
I140 - 140
2010 - '10
Unknown-Factor - F1 F2 F3 ..... etc
function - f

The formula you are proposing is a simple one

485'10A = F * 140'10A

In reality the formula would be

485'10A = f (140'10A, 485'09P)
<= F1*140'10A - 485'10P + 485'09P

p.s. -1) The factors themselves will vary from year to year. 2) I personally like to keep things at high level rather than get too much technical and forecasty.... (if there is such a word!!). So I would really not use such an equation .... I only put it down to illustrate the point that the data published is not all on the same basis.



First there is a slight inconsistency with the 2010 figures.

We know that there were 41,026 I-485 approvals in FY2010

The figures show 13,744 total EB1 I-140 approvals for 2010.

This gives a ratio of 2.99 to reach 41,026. We know from the DHS Statistics that the ratio was 2.4, so this is inconsistent.





I think that data is good for two purposes: Understanding denial rates for EB-1 and %age of EB1 applications out of the total pool of I-140 applications.
You are right!


One thing totally apparent to me is the stupid rule of one visa number per dependent. Suppose it was not so, then just 14k EB1, leading to 26k SO to EB2, which would clean out 55k 485s, even if the rule begins being applied right now, EB2 would have around a 2 year wait only at worst. Sorry for digressing, couldn't help but see the benefits of this hypothetical proposal. I think this one, plus of course re-capture, are the two most uncontroversial and suitable proposals in a legislative fix.
That is true Nishant .... the more I think about it .... the more I am convinced that dependent limit if removed .... is the most effective relief for EB category as a whole which will benefit all countries. For India/China removing country limit may make sense but ironically removal of dependent counting will actually be more beneficial for India/China too.

[Spectator]

Spec,

The 2010 I-485 approvals had a quite a few cases whose I-140 was approved in 2009. The same thing happened this year. Quite a few I-485 approvals this year had their I-140 approved in 2010.

I think that data is good for two purposes: Understanding denial rates for EB-1 and %age of EB1 applications out of the total pool of I-140 applications.kd,

Quite right and that does explain the 2.99 ratio. Thanks for pointing that out. Sometimes it is easy to forget such simple things and compare apples to oranges.

The same will be true of FY2012 I-485 approvals, so I think the main point of the post still holds true. We can expect much higher EB1 I-485 approvals in FY2012, unless either receipts drop, denials increase or processing times increase further.

Thanks again.

[Spectator]

Q,

You're right. In trying to do something quickly I overreached what the data can tell us.

Originally in the May VB, the spare visas numbers from EB1 were portrayed as being available because of low demand in EB1.

It was true that DOS were seeing low demand as processing times and the backlog increased.

The figures just released reveal that the USCIS side of the equation actually shows flat or slightly increased demand for EB1 compared to FY2010 and the backlogs are now probably higher (certainly no less). The lower approvals in FY2011 are a function of increased processing times.

Unless it is a blip in the data (quite possible) the denial rates for EB1A/B have stayed about the same, but EB1C denials rates have reduced by over 30%.

Both those factors tell of increased I-485 approvals in EB1 for FY2012.

[veni001]

Spec,

The 2010 I-485 approvals had a quite a few cases whose I-140 was approved in 2009. The same thing happened this year. Quite a few I-485 approvals this year had their I-140 approved in 2010.

I think that data is good for two purposes: Understanding denial rates for EB-1 and %age of EB1 applications out of the total pool of I-140 applications.

kd2008,
We talked about the processing delays with 140's & 485's before. This is the reason we are safe to take EB1 approvals until July 2011 & EB1-485 applications pending until 10-01-2010, in calculating EB1 demand for FY 2011.

[veni001]

Q,

You're right. In trying to do something quickly I overreached what the data can tell us.

Originally in the May VB, the spare visas numbers from EB1 were portrayed as being available because of low demand in EB1.

It was true that DOS were seeing low demand as processing times and the backlog increased.

The figures just released reveal that the USCIS side of the equation actually shows flat or slightly increased demand for EB1 compared to FY2010 and the backlogs are now probably higher (certainly no less). The lower approvals in FY2011 are a function of increased processing times.

Unless it is a blip in the data (quite possible) the denial rates for EB1A/B have stayed about the same, but EB1C denials rates have reduced by over 30%.

Both those factors tell of increased I-485 approvals in EB1 for FY2012.

Spec,
I have a little different view point on EB1-i140 backlogs in-light of recent statistics USCIS released to AILA.
Based on June 2011 EB inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf) there are not very many EB1 pending from FY 2009 , So let's ignore FY2009 EB1 for a moment.

Looking at FY 2010 and FY2011 to-date receipts and completions together

Receipts = 16,894 + 14,092 = 30,986

Completions = 13,744 + 1,988 + 8,712 + 5,884 = 28,340

Pending EB1 (as of Jul 2011) = 2,646 only (not sure this is higher or lower compared to beginning of FY2011)

If we assume similar to FY2011 demand (~1,100 EB1-140 receipts per month), approval/denial ratio (81:19) for next year then , estimated EB1 demand will be about 30K

[Spectator]

Spec,
I have a little different view point on EB1-i140 backlogs in-light of recent statistics USCIS released to AILA.
Based on June 2011 EB inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf) there are not very many EB1 pending from FY 2009 , So let's ignore FY2009 EB1 for a moment.

Looking at FY 2010 and FY2011 to-date receipts and completions together

Receipts = 16,894 + 14,092 = 30,986

Completions = 13,744 + 1,988 + 8,712 + 5,884 = 28,340

Pending EB1 (as of Jul 2011) = 2,646 only (not sure this is higher or lower compared to beginning of FY2011)

If we assume similar to FY2011 demand (~1,100 EB1-140 receipts per month), approval/denial ratio (81:19) for next year then , estimated EB1 demand will be about 30KVeni,

I differ slightly.

Let's look at the June 2011 USCIS Inventory and ignore anything before 2010.

That leaves 8,016 cases shown on the Inventory for 2010 and 2011 still waiting at the end of May 2011 for approval.

Those cases only represent the numbers where the underlying I-140 has already been approved.

Any cases where the I-140 has not yet been adjudicated do not appear in the USCIS Inventory. Adjudication of I-140 for EB1 is now taking a very long time, so there are certainly far more potential I-485 cases than the Inventory shows.

I won't try to calculate it, but it will be a big number - the Inventory just shows a subset.

There will still be a big backlog of EB1 cases going into FY2012 - far bigger I believe than you are calculating.

Completion data is not necessarily from the same year as Receipt, so your calculation ignores any existing or continuing backlog. The number left pending is likely to be far higher.

The July EB1 data tells us that average I-140 receipts is around 1.5k per month (14,092/291 days * (365/12) = 1,473), so your calculation will be proportionately higher.

[murali83]

Gurus here,

This is a really good forum, I have a stupid and dumb question. While most guys and forums would agree that FY 2011 has been a great year for Eb2. Let me ask a basic question (just looking at the big picture). The movement in FY 2010 was almost 15 months, while the movement in FY 2011 will at most be 1 yr unless a miracle shows up. So is it like, 2011 is a great yr considering the number of people in line with PD's in 2006-07 (this is what was mostly done in 2011) compared to PD's in 05-06 (dates cleared in FY 2010). Keeping that in mind, just looking at general picture, are PD's in 07-08 more than the last 2 yrs. Becos overall it all averages out to the standard 10 - 11 months per yr progression.

Thanks guys

[Spectator]

Gurus here,

This is a really good forum, I have a stupid and dumb question. While most guys and forums would agree that FY 2011 has been a great year for Eb2. Let me ask a basic question (just looking at the big picture). The movement in FY 2010 was almost 15 months, while the movement in FY 2011 will at most be 1 yr unless a miracle shows up. So is it like, 2011 is a great yr considering the number of people in line with PD's in 2006-07 (this is what was mostly done in 2011) compared to PD's in 05-06 (dates cleared in FY 2010). Keeping that in mind, just looking at general picture, are PD's in 07-08 more than the last 2 yrs. Becos overall it all averages out to the standard 10 - 11 months per yr progression.

Thanks guysmurali,

That is most definitely not either a stupid or a dumb question.

The movement in FY2010 was far greater, even with fewer spare visas because less cases remained unapproved for that period.

The Cut Off dates had briefly covered a lot of the period when they moved to June and August 2006 at the end of FY2008 and many of the 2005 cases appear to have been cleared then.

The USCIS Inventories have showed about 1.8 times more cases in 2006 than 2005 (18k vs 10k).

The monthly numbers in 2007/2008 are likely to be similar to those seen this year rather than last year.

The progression is dependent on the number of spillover visas available.

Although there were more numbers to get through this year, spillover has been much higher than FY2010.

Unfortunately, the signs are that spillover available may be less in FY2012, so progression next year may not be as good. The real work on determining that has not really begun yet.

Another factor to consider is that no one yet really knows quite how many I-485s there are waiting to be submitted. Some educated guesses have been made, but there is no good data from either DOS or USCIS.

Welcome to the forum.

[murali83]

Hi Spec,

Thanks for your patient reply. So as I understand it, they will have to process almost same number of cases for 07-08 transition as they did for 06-07 (it was much lesser for 05-06), but they just may not have the same spill over. Ok to sum up for a layman, there are 2 unknowns here, monthly demand for the transition from 07-08 (do we have the numbers by month or are we making an educated guess that they are likely to be similar to 06-07) and the 2nd unknown is much more complicated which is expected spill over. I did see in the prior discussion that some numbers on monthly demand for 07 has been posted, do we have any for 2008?
Yup, u are right demand is one thing and it is another ball game as to how many are still going to avail it by filing a 485. If you have any links to the numbers or any summary on that, it will be great. I don't want to get it all reposted, that way I can just lookup and read it before I can be on the page as u guys. I am assuming it is easier to lookup at demand by month rather than predicting spill over.

Thanks again Spec

[veni001]

Hi Spec,

Thanks for your patient reply. So as I understand it, they will have to process almost same number of cases for 07-08 transition as they did for 06-07 (it was much lesser for 05-06), but they just may not have the same spill over. Ok to sum up for a layman, there are 2 unknowns here, monthly demand for the transition from 07-08 (do we have the numbers by month or are we making an educated guess that they are likely to be similar to 06-07) and the 2nd unknown is much more complicated which is expected spill over. I did see in the prior discussion that some numbers on monthly demand for 07 has been posted, do we have any for 2008?
Yup, u are right demand is one thing and it is another ball game as to how many are still going to avail it by filing a 485. If you have any links to the numbers or any summary on that, it will be great. I don't want to get it all reposted, that way I can just lookup and read it before I can be on the page as u guys. I am assuming it is easier to lookup at demand by month rather than predicting spill over.

Thanks again Spec

Murali,
You can find PWMB Monthly PERM breakdown (I&C) (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)) numbers here...

You may use PW data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Dertermination-Data-Analysis) to derive EB2:EB3 demand and i140 to 485 ratios (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)) to estimate demand for IC once dates move past July 2007

[pch053]

Since, we have reached the end of July, I am summarizing the trackitt EB2I approvals in the past 3 months from Spec's meticulously updated data. For the July, we have seen 313 approvals and the corresponding numbers for May and June are 162 and 266 respectively. So, even though approvals were slow at the beginning of July, it picked up from 2nd week onwards. Plus, I have seen (and others have pointed out) that several 2007 cases have received RFEs with medical details being one of the most common reason. I guess these RFE cases will be approved in Aug - Sep and will boost up the approval numbers for cases that became current during July.

[TeddyKoochu]

Stemcell,
In theory USCIS has to stick to monthly/quarterly limits from Q1-Q3. But based on the leads received for FY2011, USCIS issued all 2.8k to EB2I in the first half (Q1+Q2) of the year (~500 per month).
IMHO, as long as EB1 usage is low then USCIS may repeat the same for FY2012!


Guys,
The demand data as of July shows 6000 odd EB2I pending. Assuming by September the demand drops to 4000, starting next fiscal quota in October, will EB2 take in 2800 in one go as there is demand pending or will it allocate ~250 per month ?


Stemcell,

I agree with Veni.

The law proscribes that only a maximum of 27% of the total visas can be issued in each of the first three quarters.

Over the last 2 years, DOS has shown themselves to be quite creative within this law and has allocated 5-600 visas per month to EB2-I at the beginning of the year. I think they were able to do this without breaking the OVERALL limit for the month.

Perhaps more worrying is that the EB1 statistics just released suggest far higher approvals in FY2012 and that the low approvals in FY2011 are more a function of longer processing times than lower actual demand.

That may ties DOS hand in how many visas they can say will be unused, which is vital to strong movement earlier than July.

It will be interesting to see how DOS handle that. They may have to flout the law a bit to get the next batch of cases beyond July 2007 in time to stand a chance of USCIS adjudicating them within FY2012.

Friends Spec makes some great points. Honestly if some kind of extra intake does not happen in September it may take a while to actually happen, May 2012 is definitely worse case scenario but not impossible. Here is why.

Most likely we will be left with 5K Preadjudicated cases, 6K new porting cases that will keep coming constantly over the year. This is will be more than sufficient to fully consume the EB2 I/C Cap.

Additionally once the new year starts 485 approvals will come to a normal level because there will be more regular case approvals unlike EB2 I/C in the last quarter are Preadjudicated and easier to approve.

USCIS will have more bandwidth to approve I140's as the spillover season is done this will help to have higher number of current cases being approved, it will spike up EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals. This factor will be really crucial because USCIS - DOS will be making assessments based on the first few months and if I140 rates pick up the assessment may not be that optimistic towards SOFAD.

Many have pointed out that especially EB1 SOFAD has largely been possible due to slower approval process however the receipts or incoming volume is not down. Let us consider the following analogy, up until the previous years EB1 approvals have been around the 40K mark this makes it 3.33K a month. This year most calculations are projecting anywhere from 12 - 18K of SOFAD, lets average out at 15K this makes 25K usage or ~ 2K per month. Now if we say that most of these deficient cases are say delayed by 4 months (This is based on 8 months approval time currently v/s 4 moths regular), so even though with the slowness in place the situation will completely normalize in 4 - 6 months with the backlog stabilizing, the deficient slow / cases will start coming at the regular constant pace. So in short the slowness of approvals for these cases will not be a factor in the coming year as it was this year unless the number of applications comes down. If for reason the rate of approvals start picking up just like it happened for perm it can very significantly impact SOFAD because the backlog is almost unprecedented.

[nishant2200]

Teddy, does this mean that if BTM does not happen in Sep VB, then we shall have to wait till May 2012, since there won't be anything similar to this years 12k which could be announced in advance and hence move dates without breaking law.

I also think if no BTM in Sep, we all should keep docs 110% ready to facilitate quick approval.

Another thing, Q, why do u think BTM can happen in Oct VB too

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, does this mean that if BTM does not happen in Sep VB, then we shall have to wait till May 2012, since there won't be anything similar to this years 12k which could be announced in advance and hence move dates without breaking law.

I also think if no BTM in Sep, we all should keep docs 110% ready to facilitate quick approval.

Another thing, Q, why do u think BTM can happen in Oct VB too

This is more of a theoretical discussion; BTM may only happen when there is either a compelling case for it or it is legally feasible. The legal feasibility can be justified in Sep followed by retro in Oct. However when the next year starts because the allocations are limited by the month or quarters the numbers for EB2 I/C will be limited. Anything will be completely contingent on EB1 and EB2 rates which will take atleast a quarter to assess. So I believe that BTM is less likely for numerical reasons in Q1 2012. The only thing that may expedite the process if they accept this year’s SOFAD as a benchmark for next year irrespective of how things work out early next year. It's really going to be a wait and watch situation. May 2012 is the absolute worst case scenario date for BTM however this possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.

[pch053]

Last year, the PDs remained constant for the 1st 2 quarters. So, if the PD for EB2-I/C in the Sep bulletin is around May - June'07, then it can be stuck at that point for the next 2 quarters. In the past year, they didn't move the PDs for EB2I (there was some movement for EB2C) since there were enough porting cases to consume the regular quota. I guess we can have a similar situation this year too and in that case, the PDs can only start moving from April'12. Maybe this is a worst case scenario and hopefully we will have earlier PD movement.

[qesehmk]

Veni

In your formular below ... you also need to add the 2010 pending at the start of the period to arrive at pending at teh end of 2011.


...
Looking at FY 2010 and FY2011 to-date receipts and completions together
Receipts = 16,894 + 14,092 = 30,986
Completions = 13,744 + 1,988 + 8,712 + 5,884 = 28,340
Pending EB1 (as of Jul 2011) = 2,646 only


Another thing, Q, why do u think BTM can happen in Oct VB too
Because possibly they don't want to comingle BTM with 2011 quota. So they could rather move in Oct and then retro immediately. The fact is - there are so many combinations that they could try ... so its worthless to list all of them - But what is 100% certain is that there will be at least 18K SOFAD next year. The rationale is EB1 will eat its quota. EB5 will yield ~7K. EB2ROW will yield same as this year i.e. ~6K. Considering that 2007 has about 11K post July and the rest 7K will probably be sufficient through Mar 2008. Now if DoS must allocate all this by Sep 2012, & if processing time for EB2IC is 6-9 months (which is clearly more than ROW) then Mar 2008 needs to be current at least by Mar 2012. I would say Dec 2011 to play it safer. So bottomline - we must see Mar 2008 EB2IC current between Dec 11 - Mar 12. So either the BTM happens Sep or Oct. Or Dec-Mar. It would rather make sense to make the move Sep or Oct than Dec-Mar since it gives USCIS additional 3 months to adjudicate. The question is - is Sep any better than Oct? Actually the answer is Sep is worse than Oct. Sep is when USCIS is busy wrapping up 2011. So they shoudl rather do BTM in Oct.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani ... ironically the bad ecomony and double dip will help EB2. The worst case for next year IMHO would be 18K SOFAD which is not too bad! So I wouldn't say EB2 has indefinite wait. EB2 has decent future. Its EB3 that doesn't look good at all. That's the reason why Indians and Chinese and ROW should join hands to abolish counting of dependents towards quota. Anyway ... keep happy. Getting GC is just a matter of time. Focus on things that are more valuable than GC :)



Friends

Eventhough all the available data denotes a low Spillover in the upcoming years , it is very hard to digest without a sugar coating . Too much of worst case scenario analysis breaks our heart (with later PDs) .

Actually, my husband who is the primary, never bothers for all these datas and number crunching . I , somehow got into this and ofcourse it is really interesting to read immigration related data analysis . But whenever I comeacross things like future of eb2 is indefinite , oh my God , ignorance is bliss.

"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies " (The Shawshank Redemption )

Let me hope for the best .

[veni001]

Veni,

I differ slightly.

Let's look at the June 2011 USCIS Inventory and ignore anything before 2010.

That leaves 8,016 cases shown on the Inventory for 2010 and 2011 still waiting at the end of May 2011 for approval.

Those cases only represent the numbers where the underlying I-140 has already been approved.

Any cases where the I-140 has not yet been adjudicated do not appear in the USCIS Inventory. Adjudication of I-140 for EB1 is now taking a very long time, so there are certainly far more potential I-485 cases than the Inventory shows.

I won't try to calculate it, but it will be a big number - the Inventory just shows a subset.

There will still be a big backlog of EB1 cases going into FY2012 - far bigger I believe than you are calculating.

Completion data is not necessarily from the same year as Receipt, so your calculation ignores any existing or continuing backlog. The number left pending is likely to be far higher.

The July EB1 data tells us that average I-140 receipts is around 1.5k per month (14,092/291 days * (365/12) = 1,473), so your calculation will be proportionately higher.


Spec,
Irrespective of when EB1-140 applicants are going to reflect as part of 485 invetrory, they must be part of monthly i140 receipts first and i would assume, at the end, EB1 backlog must come from this number only!

I agree that completions are not necessarily from the same year of receipt. So let's look at EB1-140 receipts and completions from FY2009 in calculating EB1 backlog.

Looking at EB1 i140 receipts and EB1 485 usage for FY2009 & FY2010 it is clear that FY2010 cleared ~4k EB1-140 backlog from FY2009.

FY2009 EB1-140 receipts (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations) ~ 27.5K [assume 100% of these cases processed by end of FY2010, approvals~21.8K (81%),denials 5.2k(19%)]

Based on 485 approval data:
FY2009 EB1-485 = 40,979 (i140 = 16.7k)
FY2010 EB1-485 = 41,026 (i140 = 17.1k)

FY2009+FY2010
EB1-140 Approvals = 21.8k + 13.7k = 35.5k
EB1-140 Usage = 16.7k + 17.1k = 33.8k

Difference = 35.5k - 33.8k = 1.7k (should be part of FY2011 demand)

Adding all EB1-140 receipts from FY2009 to FY2011 to-date, applying approval/denial rate (81:19) and substracting FY2009, FY2010 and FY2011 to-date usage/denials , i can't see anything more ~2.7k backlog!

Only way i can think of more EB1-140 backlog is by assume higher EB1-140 approval % in FY2009, even then I believe the difference can't be more than ~2k!

P.S: I hope i am not beating this horse to death!

[veni001]

Veni

In your formular below ... you also need to add the 2010 pending at the start of the period to arrive at pending at teh end of 2011.


Q,
Please check my post above and see if at all makes any sense, I have used data from FY2009.

[Spectator]

August 1 has finally arrived.

The very best of luck to everybody who has become Current, particularly Q.

May all your cases be picked up early.

[veni001]

Q,
All the best, hope you will get approval this week.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q and everyone who is current, all the very best may you all see approvals soon. All friends waiting good luck for the Sep VB.

[nishant2200]

I feel it. I have been at times thinking of doomsday sceanarios, and will be more realistically positive from now. A happy n clear mind leads to good direction.

I am glad ur husband is able to keep away. I am addicted to Q's forum :)


Thank you Q . Thats a A+++ .

Sorry I was emotional . Permanent Residentship is not going to make much diff in my life, except for travel , but without it there is a feeling of uncertainity in all aspects. I dont know how many of you feel it .

[Monica12]

Thank you Q . Thats a A+++ .

Sorry I was emotional . Permanent Residentship is not going to make much diff in my life, except for travel , but without it there is a feeling of uncertainity in all aspects. I dont know how many of you feel it .
JJ behen ( sister)...It's good to know you are female..we all have been calling you bhai all this time :)
Nishant, Q ... amen to that...realistically positive sounds good..good way to start the new month, so many hopes built in this month..
Q and others who are current. May all of you get your GC soon!
Good luck to everyone, including me who are hoping to be current in Sep VB!

[kd2008]

From Immigration-law.com

http://i53.tinypic.com/2na32pe.png

As prevailing wage determination (PWD) has stopped, the PERM application process has stalled and hence a just a few PERM will be filed ..the ones that were in process before PWD was stopped. I also checked trackitt. Really tiny number of PERM filings in July. Of course we will follow to see if the trend continues. This is temporary as the process is supposed to be back up on 1 Oct, 2011 based on the publication of final rule today.

[veni001]

From Immigration-law.com

As prevailing wage determination (PWD) has stopped, the PERM application process has stalled and hence a just a few PERM will be filed ..the ones that were in process before PWD was stopped. I also checked trackitt. Really tiny number of PERM filings in July. Of course we will follow to see if the trend continues. This is temporary as the process is supposed to be back up on 1 Oct, 2011 based on the publication of final rule today.

kd2008,
If my interpretation is correct, it is only affecting H2-B?

[TeddyKoochu]

From Immigration-law.com

http://i53.tinypic.com/2na32pe.png

As prevailing wage determination (PWD) has stopped, the PERM application process has stalled and hence a just a few PERM will be filed ..the ones that were in process before PWD was stopped. I also checked trackitt. Really tiny number of PERM filings in July. Of course we will follow to see if the trend continues. This is temporary as the process is supposed to be back up on 1 Oct, 2011 based on the publication of final rule today.

This is only for H2B cases. Prevailing wage request is required even for H1.

The H-2B working visa is a nonimmigrant visa which allows foreign nationals to enter into the U.S. temporarily and engage in nonagricultural employment which is seasonal, intermittent, a peak load need, or a one-time occurrence.

[kd2008]

Teddy, Veni,

You are correct in the sense that the dispute is about H-2B. But if you read carefully, the note it says, "Pending the foregoing court battle jig jags, the agency's prevailing wage determination has been suspended. It is uncertain whether the determination of prevailing wage, ETA 9141, can be resumed soon or will have to wait until 10/01/2011"

So all PWD is stopped for now. So it affects PERM also. Hence the title of post says, "Causing Delays in Recruiting for and Filing of PERM Applications" which applies to the green card process.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, Veni,

You are correct in the sense that the dispute is about H-2B. But if you read carefully, the note it says, "Pending the foregoing court battle jig jags, the agency's prevailing wage determination has been suspended. It is uncertain whether the determination of prevailing wage, ETA 9141, can be resumed soon or will have to wait until 10/01/2011"

So all PWD is stopped for now. So it affects PERM also. Hence the title of post says, "Causing Delays in Recruiting for and Filing of PERM Applications" which applies to the green card process.

kd2008 I agree you are probably right even though the dispute is related to H2B it sems to affect the entire process. Lets wait for further updates.

[mesan123]

82

just found this EB1 stats of Aila from other sites....may be it will be usefull for calculations

[veni001]

82

just found this EB1 stats of Aila from other sites....may be it will be usefull for calculations

nnnnn123,
Please check few pages back, we analyzed this data extensively last Friday(07/29/11) itself.

[qesehmk]

veni

Looking at that post you referred ... I still don't see any reference to pending 485s as of end of FY 2008 and 2010. Perhaps you need to consider that.

But as you say ... we have beaten this to death. I guess you and spec were trying to figure out if there was a surge in EB1 processing. And the answer is absolutely there was a surge last year when they cleared all EB1 backlog.


Q,
Please check my post above and see if at all makes any sense, I have used data from FY2009.


Teddy, Veni,
You are correct in the sense that the dispute is about H-2B. But if you read carefully, the note it says, "Pending the foregoing court battle jig jags, the agency's prevailing wage determination has been suspended. It is uncertain whether the determination of prevailing wage, ETA 9141, can be resumed soon or will have to wait until 10/01/2011"

So all PWD is stopped for now. So it affects PERM also. Hence the title of post says, "Causing Delays in Recruiting for and Filing of PERM Applications" which applies to the green card process.
KD you have become a de-facto Guru! Good find!


Everybody, thanks for the wishes! For those who are current - "Din hai suhana aaj pehali taarikh hain! Khush hain jamana aaj pehli tarikh hain (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fkljv7ZzHf8)"! Watch the song on youtube :) Bow to Kishorda!


August 1 has finally arrived.
The very best of luck to everybody who has become Current, particularly Q.
May all your cases be picked up early.

Q,
All the best, hope you will get approval this week.

Q and everyone who is current, all the very best may you all see approvals soon. All friends waiting good luck for the Sep VB.

..
Q and others who are current. May all of you get your GC soon!
Good luck to everyone, including me who are hoping to be current in Sep VB!

[qesehmk]

Friends,

Based on people's wishes from the poll we recently conducted - We will NOT be mandating registration to view Live Discussion forum.

Although I and some others had a different view - I guess - if majority feels differently then that's what we will do.

Thanks for participation.

[soggadu]

Friends

Eventhough all the available data denotes a low Spillover in the upcoming years , it is very hard to digest without a sugar coating . Too much of worst case scenario analysis breaks our heart (with later PDs) .

Actually, my husband who is the primary, never bothers for all these datas and number crunching . I , somehow got into this and ofcourse it is really interesting to read immigration related data analysis . But whenever I comeacross things like future of eb2 is indefinite , oh my God , ignorance is bliss.

"Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies " (The Shawshank Redemption )

Let me hope for the best .

Sorry :-( all the while i refered to u as u were JJ bhai...sorry JJ ben...

All the guys /gals who got current... jaldi khush kabri de doo...

[gc_usa]

Friends,

Based on people's wishes from the poll we recently conducted - We will NOT be mandating registration to view Live Discussion forum.

Although I and some others had a different view - I guess - if majority feels differently then that's what we will do.

Thanks for participation.

Thanks and good luck to you...

[veni001]

veni

Looking at that post you referred ... I still don't see any reference to pending 485s as of end of FY 2008 and 2010. Perhaps you need to consider that.

But as you say ... we have beaten this to death. I guess you and spec were trying to figure out if there was a surge in EB1 processing. And the answer is absolutely there was a surge last year when they cleared all EB1 backlog.



Q,
Let's assume EB1 pending at the end of FY2008 as "delta". As we can see from the 485 approval data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)) EB1 did not use all its quota in FY 2008 and i would assume this "delta" should be small.

In addition for FY2009, pending i140 at the beginning of FY+ i140 receipts for FY2009 = Total i140 completions at the end of FY. (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations)

Before i put this to bed, my point is even if we assume same "delta" (EB1 backlog at the end of FY 2008) carried through EB1 backlog reduction last year, it wouldn't be very significant.

[mvinayam]

Good Luck to all who are Current. Hope you all receive your approvals at the earliest.

Q, is it possible for us to get any info from your source regarding the Sep VB. Also, Gurus what is the final intake on SPOFAD for EB2IC for Sep VB??

[qesehmk]

Yep fair enough.


Q,
Let's assume EB1 pending at the end of FY2008 as "delta". As we can see from the 485 approval data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)) EB1 did not use all its quota in FY 2008 and i would assume this "delta" should be small.

In addition for FY2009, pending i140 at the beginning of FY+ i140 receipts for FY2009 = Total i140 completions at the end of FY. (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations)

Before i put this to bed, my point is even if we assume same "delta" (EB1 backlog at the end of FY 2008) carried through EB1 backlog reduction last year, it wouldn't be very significant.

[kd2008]

Q,
Let's assume EB1 pending at the end of FY2008 as "delta". As we can see from the 485 approval data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)) EB1 did not use all its quota in FY 2008 and i would assume this "delta" should be small.

In addition for FY2009, pending i140 at the beginning of FY+ i140 receipts for FY2009 = Total i140 completions at the end of FY. (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations)

Before i put this to bed, my point is even if we assume same "delta" (EB1 backlog at the end of FY 2008) carried through EB1 backlog reduction last year, it wouldn't be very significant.

With reference to the item I have bolded (?) and underlined, it may not be necessarily true as lower number of approvals may be due to FBI name check delays, esp, in 2008/2009. So the delta can still be large. I would be expect this delta to be small this year do to the overall efficiency improvements in processing from USCIS but one cannot be always sure.

Q, thank you for your kind words. I contribute what I can just as everyone else.

[murali83]

Q,

One follow up question,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29

Based on that perms in Jan 2008-June 2008 for example are more than Jan 2007 - June 2007, did the economy dip just lower what would have been more.


Kanmani ... ironically the bad ecomony and double dip will help EB2. The worst case for next year IMHO would be 18K SOFAD which is not too bad! So I wouldn't say EB2 has indefinite wait. EB2 has decent future. Its EB3 that doesn't look good at all. That's the reason why Indians and Chinese and ROW should join hands to abolish counting of dependents towards quota. Anyway ... keep happy. Getting GC is just a matter of time. Focus on things that are more valuable than GC :)

[veni001]

With reference to the item I have bolded (?) and underlined, it may not be necessarily true as lower number of approvals may be due to FBI name check delays, esp, in 2008/2009. So the delta can still be large. I would be expect this delta to be small this year do to the overall efficiency improvements in processing from USCIS but one cannot be always sure.

Q, thank you for your kind words. I contribute what I can just as everyone else.

kd2008,
We are talking about EB1-i140 backlogs, i don't think 140 processing has anything to do with FBI name-check delays?

[bieber]

Veni,

originally with your calculations it appeared that fy2010 eb1 140 receipts < fy 2011 but based on the recent information, fy2011 140 receipts must be less thatn fy2010 (we need to wait for 1-2 months though) if not equal.

is this correct?

[kd2008]

kd2008,
We are talking about EB1-i140 backlogs, i don't think 140 processing has anything to do with FBI name-check delays?

Veni, you are correct. my bad. Could the delay be due to 2007 july fiasco and its load? I really don't know.

[qesehmk]

murali,

First of all Kudos to Spec for terrific compilation of data. The data is for IC only but i think directionally it very well represents the entire PERM situation.

So to answer your question, although 2008 H1 was slighly higher than 2007 H1; full year 2008 came in lower than full year 2007. The recession although technically started in 2007 H2, only started feeling in 2008 and all the lehman crisis etc happened during H2 of 2008. That's why you see 2008 H2 was bad, 2009 full year was terrible. And then the stimulus in 2009 gave a fake sense of recovery which is why 2010 PERMs were higher than 2009. Come 2011 that sense of recovery is vanishing and now we will see 2011 PERMs will be lower than 2010 - which is what I called double dip.

While its bad for people who haven't even started their GC or barely begun it; the double dip will be beneficial to those who are in the hopper.

Makes sense?


Q,

One follow up question,

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29

Based on that perms in Jan 2008-June 2008 for example are more than Jan 2007 - June 2007, did the economy dip just lower what would have been more.

[murali83]

Yes Sir, It does make sense now.


murali,

First of all Kudos to Spec for terrific compilation of data. The data is for IC only but i think directionally it very well represents the entire PERM situation.

So to answer your question, although 2008 H1 was slighly higher than 2007 H1; full year 2008 came in lower than full year 2007. The recession although technically started in 2007 H2, only started feeling in 2008 and all the lehman crisis etc happened during H2 of 2008. That's why you see 2008 H2 was bad, 2009 full year was terrible. And then the stimulus in 2009 gave a fake sense of recovery which is why 2010 PERMs were higher than 2009. Come 2011 that sense of recovery is vanishing and now we will see 2011 PERMs will be lower than 2010 - which is what I called double dip.

While its bad for people who haven't even started their GC or barely begun it; the double dip will be beneficial to those who are in the hopper.

Makes sense?

[imdeng]

Q - there was a line of thought that higher number of PERM in 2010 may have been due to lots of people losing jobs and joining new places and hence filing new PERM. If that is correct then we have some duplication in the PERM numbers. It seems logical that the duplication will show up in 2010 PERM since many people lost their jobs in 2008/2009 and most companies file PERM after one year of employment. Otherwise I really see no reason why we should have the 2010 PERM numbers as high as they seem to be (higher than 2007 IIRC).

My PD is Aug-09 and I am hopeful that the lower 2009 numbers will be helpful. I am also encouraged by the continuing bad economy - it has to affect EB1/EB2-ROW negatively - which is good for EB2IC. I am aware of the placement figures for a top business school - and the year I graduated (2008) - almost all international students got US based jobs - maybe 5% went back - that too sometimes because of better options back home, the year after that some 25% had to go back, and for 2010 graduating class about half of international students went back to home countries. The pattern has been so severe that international student arrivals from IC in top business schools has reduced significantly. There still are a lot of Korean students coming - but a higher proportion of them tend to go back historically.

EB2 GC pipeline really originates at the H1B level, which is filled partially by the international students in US. Both of these are down significantly - and perhaps for many years considering the economy and hiring restrictions on international students. This is potentially a tailwind for EB2IC PD in the long term.




murali,

First of all Kudos to Spec for terrific compilation of data. The data is for IC only but i think directionally it very well represents the entire PERM situation.

So to answer your question, although 2008 H1 was slighly higher than 2007 H1; full year 2008 came in lower than full year 2007. The recession although technically started in 2007 H2, only started feeling in 2008 and all the lehman crisis etc happened during H2 of 2008. That's why you see 2008 H2 was bad, 2009 full year was terrible. And then the stimulus in 2009 gave a fake sense of recovery which is why 2010 PERMs were higher than 2009. Come 2011 that sense of recovery is vanishing and now we will see 2011 PERMs will be lower than 2010 - which is what I called double dip.

While its bad for people who haven't even started their GC or barely begun it; the double dip will be beneficial to those who are in the hopper.

Makes sense?

[Spectator]

Q - there was a line of thought that higher number of PERM in 2010 may have been due to lots of people losing jobs and joining new places and hence filing new PERM. If that is correct then we have some duplication in the PERM numbers. It seems logical that the duplication will show up in 2010 PERM since many people lost their jobs in 2008/2009 and most companies file PERM after one year of employment. Otherwise I really see no reason why we should have the 2010 PERM numbers as high as they seem to be (higher than 2007 IIRC). imdeng,

I agree that the FY2010 PERM figures aren't as bad as they look.

In addition to the factors you have mentioned, a number must be due to PERM certified for Porting purposes. These will actually have an earlier PD to attach to it.

The underlying figures are probably no worse than FY2009, which was the lowest yearly total.

[bieber]

If there is no surge in overall I140 receipts for q3 and q4, that proves that EB1 demand for H2 will be much less than H1.

[veni001]

Veni, you are correct. my bad. Could the delay be due to 2007 july fiasco and its load? I really don't know.

Based on I140 data almost all of July 2007 load (backlogs) was cleared by end of FY2009.


Veni,

originally with your calculations it appeared that fy2010 eb1 140 receipts < fy 2011 but based on the recent information, fy2011 140 receipts must be less thatn fy2010 (we need to wait for 1-2 months though) if not equal.

is this correct?


biber,
All we are trying to derive from the data is EB1 backlogs as of July 2011( EB1 to-date data availability).

From FY2009,FY2010 and FY2011 to-date data, it should be

EB1-140 Backlog = EB1-140 Receipts - EB1-140 Completions + "delta" (= EB1-140 backlog at the end of FY2008)

[qesehmk]

H1 = First half of year
H2 = Second half of year
Q
I agree with you regarding double dip , CNN also forecast the same few weeks ago.
what is H2 here ?

imdeng - whoever those PERMs belong to ... higher numbers means there are employers willing to sponsor PERMs!! Right? I do agree however that PERM labor market is not exactly same as general labor market. In other words .. the need for high skilled labor (H1 & EB1/2/3 GC) is somewhat different from normal labor market. But the fact is banks bounced back in 2010 big time, big businesses turned to significant profits ... which is exactly whats good for the high skilled labor.

I think you are right about future outlook for EB1 and EB2ROW receipts (not necessarily consumption though - which has some backlog built now).

Regarding your MBA experience - its very interesting. I do think that the allure of US MBA will go away as India and China (more so) continue to achieve parity in terms of salary offered for top MBAs. Obtaining jobs in US for Indians and Chinese MBA graduates is extremely tough even otherwise unless the job is highly analytical as in financial industry. If recession deepens ... its going to be uglier. When I graduated I remember almost 10% of MBAs were Indians in all schools and about 30% total were foreign students. Wonder if that % has dropped now?


Q - there was a line of thought that higher number of PERM in 2010 may have been due to lots of people losing jobs and joining new places and hence filing new PERM. If that is correct then we have some duplication in the PERM numbers. It seems logical that the duplication will show up in 2010 PERM since many people lost their jobs in 2008/2009 and most companies file PERM after one year of employment. Otherwise I really see no reason why we should have the 2010 PERM numbers as high as they seem to be (higher than 2007 IIRC).

My PD is Aug-09 and I am hopeful that the lower 2009 numbers will be helpful. I am also encouraged by the continuing bad economy - it has to affect EB1/EB2-ROW negatively - which is good for EB2IC. I am aware of the placement figures for a top business school - and the year I graduated (2008) - almost all international students got US based jobs - maybe 5% went back - that too sometimes because of better options back home, the year after that some 25% had to go back, and for 2010 graduating class about half of international students went back to home countries. The pattern has been so severe that international student arrivals from IC in top business schools has reduced significantly. There still are a lot of Korean students coming - but a higher proportion of them tend to go back historically.

EB2 GC pipeline really originates at the H1B level, which is filled partially by the international students in US. Both of these are down significantly - and perhaps for many years considering the economy and hiring restrictions on international students. This is potentially a tailwind for EB2IC PD in the long term.


In the year 2008 , there was a huge scrutiny followed by the DoL , even they audited the perm by coming down to the employer's place. If the company had any lay offs earlier , employers certainly delayed the perm process of other employees. May be this is one among the various other reasons for high numbers in 2010
I agree. But I see all these scrutinies and throwing up different rules and change of procedures as ways to implement policy! In other words ... market has its own behavior in terms of labor market. But then the government also has a set of immigration policies to implement that usually go together with the market and political environment.

[bieber]

biber,
All we are trying to derive from the data is EB1 backlogs as of July 2011( EB1 to-date data availability).

From FY2009,FY2010 and FY2011 to-date data, it should be

EB1-140 Backlog = EB1-140 Receipts - EB1-140 Completions + "delta" (= EB1-140 backlog at the end of FY2008)

Thx veni, I understood that and how you arrived at ~2k could be the delta. My point is our Facts&Data section shows that EB1 I140 receipts for fy 2010 < fy2011 but in reality it could be quite opposite (based on recent CIS information)

[piratla]

In the year 2008 , there was a huge scrutiny followed by the DoL , even they audited the perm by coming down to the employer's place. If the company had any lay offs earlier , employers certainly delayed the perm process of other employees. May be this is one among the various other reasons for high numbers in 2010

The same continued later as well. For example Microsoft had lay-offs in the first half of 2009. They didn't encourage filing for new PERM applications almost till 2010 June. Also even though lay offs were in 2009, all those people who filed for PERM from MSFT in late 2008 got an audit in late 2009.

[soggadu]

guys... i understand all of you are spending great deal of time on these new calculations... Can some1 please post a bottom line analysis in lay man's words please.... will be helpful for all of us "the lurkers"...

[skpanda]

I do not think the 2010 PERM numbers (that we are discussing) will matter much:

Data from a previous discussion:

PERM Approvals:

EB- INDIA
PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K

EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K

Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this total)

70K EB2IC primary applicants (About 150K GCs including family members - needed to clear the backlog).

Even if we consider Denials (140/485), People left for their own country etc, there will be around 55K EB2IC primary applicants (around 120K GCs needed including family members). Long way to go.

Hopefully the 7% country limit and counting the dependents are scrapped by passing a legislation in next 1 or 2 years. It should clear the backlog in a single shot.

[skpanda]

Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy and others...

Do we have better numbers than the below PERM ones?

Something like Approved EB2 I140 beyond Aug 2007? If yes, that would provide a good estimate (although there will be duplicate I140s for porting cases i think).



I do not think the 2010 PERM numbers (that we are discussing) will matter much:

Data from a previous discussion:

PERM Approvals:

EB- INDIA
PD2007 - 14.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 23.3k
PD2009 - 16.0k
PD2010 - 21.0k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 74.5K

EB- China
PD2007 - 3.2k (approval after July 2007)
PD2008 - 4.1k
PD2009 - 2.2k
PD2010 - 2.3k (up to FY2011 Q2 PERM disclosure)
Total - 11.8K

Combined (EBI&C) Total = 86.3k (assume porting in = porting out, from this total)

70K EB2IC primary applicants (About 150K GCs including family members - needed to clear the backlog).

Even if we consider Denials (140/485), People left for their own country etc, there will be around 55K EB2IC primary applicants (around 120K GCs needed including family members). Long way to go.

Hopefully the 7% country limit and counting the dependents are scrapped by passing a legislation in next 1 or 2 years. It should clear the backlog in a single shot.

[mesan123]

I agree with soggadu....i also belong to "the lukers" list


guys... i understand all of you are spending great deal of time on these new calculations... Can some1 please post a bottom line analysis in lay man's words please.... will be helpful for all of us "the lurkers"...

[leo4ever]

@Soggadu,

Why don't you read the whole thread rather than asking questions.
.
..
...
Just kidding man, i know you are comedy king :-)
Anyway, Mein ne app ko kahi pe dekha??????
Do you come on TV?

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends those of you who are looking for a brief summary, here is one.
- The resting point in the Sep VB will be between 15-MAY-2007 to 15-JUN-2007. Extreme scenarios like no movement or 01-AUG-2007 are unlikely.
- For next year the estimated SOFAD in the worst case doomsday scenario maybe 18K, this may just be able to set the date to 01-SEP-2007. In the best of the best case scenario we might see 35K SOFAD in the coming year something similar to this year with this number the dates will reach somewhere in Q1 2008. The real truth will be somewhere in between but it will be possible to predict this with some more visibility and information. A balanced guess at best for next year can be 25K which maybe sufficient to clear out most of 2007 likely will put dates somewhere in Dec 2007. Right now there are many factors that need to be watched a) EB1 and EB2 ROW approvals it needs atleast a quarter of observation b) I 140 approval rates.

[qesehmk]

on this thread and through private messages some of you are asking what the gist is:
a) Future outlook for EB2 in 2012 and beyond.
b) September bulletin

The answer to a) is outlook for EB2 is ok. I haven't done detailed calculation as others might have. But as I said .... the economy will help EB2IC. If others have the calculations pls provide. In any case I will undertake that work a couple of months down the line as 2011 is behind us.

The answer to b) is different depending on who you ask. I can give you my "opinion" more than "analysis". I think the dates will move at least upto first week of July. This is based on YTD trackitt trend that is converging very nicely to 30K NET SOFAD (i.e. 35K total sofad). That easily brings dates to July first weeek.

The movement could be much bigger if DoS goes for BTM.

p.s. - Teddy thanks for a nice summary. I think directionally we are aligned. The difference in terms of September movement is easily less than "NOISE". So I wouldn't worry about it.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy and others...

Do we have better numbers than the below PERM ones?

Something like Approved EB2 I140 beyond Aug 2007? If yes, that would provide a good estimate (although there will be duplicate I140s for porting cases i think).

You might like to look at the following, this is closest to what you are looking for.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations

[sswaitinggc]

TeddyKoochu, I remember from previous posts (think 2 week back) thre prediction for sep vb was Mid Aug 2007, Did that change with any new data? Pls let me know.


Friends those of you who are looking for a brief summary, here is one.
- The resting point in the Sep VB will be between 15-MAY-2007 to 15-JUN-2007. Extreme scenarios like no movement or 01-AUG-2007 are unlikely.
- For next year the estimated SOFAD in the worst case doomsday scenario maybe 18K, this may just be able to set the date to 01-SEP-2007. In the best of the best case scenario we might see 35K SOFAD in the coming year something similar to this year with this number the dates will reach somewhere in Q1 2008. The real truth will be somewhere in between but it will be possible to predict this with some more visibility and information. A balanced guess at best for next year can be 25K which maybe sufficient to clear out most of 2007 likely will put dates somewhere in Dec 2007. Right now there are many factors that need to be watched a) EB1 and EB2 ROW approvals it needs atleast a quarter of observation b) I 140 approval rates.

[TeddyKoochu]

TeddyKoochu, I remember from previous posts (think 2 week back) thre prediction for sep vb was Mid Aug 2007, Did that change with any new data? Pls let me know.

Many experts here have suggested that there is a possibility of 7-8K so that’s not entirely impossible, however personally I would attribute a very low probability to it. After the August bulletin I have maintained that the SOFAD for SEP will be ~ 3-4K which may just put the dates somewhere in June.

[soggadu]

Friends those of you who are looking for a brief summary, here is one.
- The resting point in the Sep VB will be between 15-MAY-2007 to 15-JUN-2007. Extreme scenarios like no movement or 01-AUG-2007 are unlikely.
- For next year the estimated SOFAD in the worst case doomsday scenario maybe 18K, this may just be able to set the date to 01-SEP-2007. In the best of the best case scenario we might see 35K SOFAD in the coming year something similar to this year with this number the dates will reach somewhere in Q1 2008. The real truth will be somewhere in between but it will be possible to predict this with some more visibility and information. A balanced guess at best for next year can be 25K which maybe sufficient to clear out most of 2007 likely will put dates somewhere in Dec 2007. Right now there are many factors that need to be watched a) EB1 and EB2 ROW approvals it needs atleast a quarter of observation b) I 140 approval rates.

Thank you Big T... very well put...

[soggadu]

@Soggadu,

Why don't you read the whole thread rather than asking questions.
.
..
...
Just kidding man, i know you are comedy king :-)
Anyway, Mein ne app ko kahi pe dekha??????
Do you come on TV?

yes i read the whole thread, in the mean while my wife asked something and i asked back...Who are You, Do i know you!!!... it took some time to come back... i thought there should be a better way ....

Leo bhai/ben... if u r asking abt my Avatar...yes i am featured in family guy... if you are asking at the personal level... You got to be kidding me or you are watching Discovery channel...

[murali83]

Many experts here have suggested that there is a possibility of 7-8K so that’s not entirely impossible, however personally I would attribute a very low probability to it. After the August bulletin I have maintained that the SOFAD for SEP will be ~ 3-4K which may just put the dates somewhere in June.

Hi Teddy,

If 3-4 K SOFAD can put it into mid-June, which is a 2 month movement (lets even say 1st week of june which makes it 7 week movement), looking at the numbers every month (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29) which indicate very similar numbers for every month between 2000 and 2500. Why do you predict that a 18000 SOFAD for the full yr will only take it to Sep 2007. And Q also had written a couple of pages back that 18000 sofad is enuf to take it to Mar 2008. He assumed that there 11 K in 2007 post July and 7 K can clear upto Mar 2008. Even if we account for 4 K between Mid June to July end, It should at least reach Jan 2008 with 18K SOFAD.

Am I missing something?

[TeddyKoochu]

Why do you predict that a 18000 SOFAD for the full yr will only take it to Sep 2007. And Q also had written a couple of pages back that 18000 sofad is enuf to take it to Mar 2008. He assumed that there 11 K in 2007 post July and 7 K can clear upto Mar 2008. Even if we account for 4 K between Mid June to July end, It should at least reach Jan 2008 with 18K SOFAD.

Am I missing something?

The prediction of 18K SOFAD for the next year is a absolute doomsday prediction by all experts here its not my individual one. We should all be positive and hope it does not happen. You are missing 14K folks who will also be there to grab the SOFAD a) Unapproved preadjudicated cases 5K b) PD Porting 6K c) PWMB - 3K. So what is left is just 4K for movement after 01-AUG-2007 in this scenario.

[nishant2200]

The prediction of 18K SOFAD for the next year is a absolute doomsday prediction by all experts here its not my individual one. We should all be positive and hope it does not happen. You are missing 14K folks who will also be there to grab the SOFAD a) Unapproved preadjudicated cases 5K b) PD Porting 6K c) PWMB - 3K. So what is left is just 4K for movement after 01-AUG-2007 in this scenario.

I would like to add that around 2.5k a month is a good rough estimate for demand in each month in post july 2007 to mid 2008.

[gc_usa]

Hi Teddy,

If 3-4 K SOFAD can put it into mid-June, which is a 2 month movement (lets even say 1st week of june which makes it 7 week movement), looking at the numbers every month (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29) which indicate very similar numbers for every month between 2000 and 2500. Why do you predict that a 18000 SOFAD for the full yr will only take it to Sep 2007. And Q also had written a couple of pages back that 18000 sofad is enuf to take it to Mar 2008. He assumed that there 11 K in 2007 post July and 7 K can clear upto Mar 2008. Even if we account for 4 K between Mid June to July end, It should at least reach Jan 2008 with 18K SOFAD.

Am I missing something?

What I think is there will be at least 5-6 k Porting and 2-3k people who could not file for AOS in 2007. total so far is 7-8k and each month average has 2.5k in 2007 upto july so if we take same then it will be another 12.5k from Aug - Dec 2007. which is 19-20k just before 2007 end.

Now if DOS sees there can be enough supply of visas in next year they will move date to that level. from history I can say that there is 20-30k visa supply to EB2 IC including their regular quota in last 2-3 years. going with same level date can move till Dec 2007 - March 2008 next year if all above assumptions true.


What can go wrong is less EB1 spill over once pending app from 2011 start getting clear in 2012 and more porting since it will be 5th year after so many EB3 who had filled AOS, they might be eligible for EB2 just without doing master.

[veni001]

Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy and others...

Do we have better numbers than the below PERM ones?

Something like Approved EB2 I140 beyond Aug 2007? If yes, that would provide a good estimate (although there will be duplicate I140s for porting cases i think).

Few things to note while estimating future demand based on PERM Certification Data:

1.Porting numbers are less than our estimates,and will not be significant while calculating demand from PERM data (Ex: 4.0k porting/year ~= 1K PERM)

2.In most cases while using PERM numbers, Porting out ~= Porting in(future), this will neutralize the effect for calculations.

3.PERM is a costly and time consuming process, So all most all PERM approvals will have 140 filing.

4.Based on PW data you can use following breakdown for EB2:EB3 to derive EB2/EB3 demand

IC - 75:25
ROWMP - 65:35

4. You can use following approval to denial ratio's at 140 stage in calculating 485 demand

EB1 - 81:19
EB2 - 87:13
EB3 - 97:3

or 15% across the board

5. At the end you can use i140 to 485 ratio to estimate 485 demand.

[neospeed]

aila eb1 data bit clear over here:

http://www.jessieho.com/xwView.asp?xw_id=518

[srivi2007]

The prediction of 18K SOFAD for the next year is a absolute doomsday prediction by all experts here its not my individual one. We should all be positive and hope it does not happen. You are missing 14K folks who will also be there to grab the SOFAD a) Unapproved preadjudicated cases 5K b) PD Porting 6K c) PWMB - 3K. So what is left is just 4K for movement after 01-AUG-2007 in this scenario.

Hi Teddy,

If we assume the dates for Sep VB resides somewhere in June 07 in that case will it remain in the same date till next spill over season (May 2012) are there is a possibilty for the dates to move in the forthcoming VB's starting from Oct 2011.

Thanks

[soggadu]

aila eb1 data bit clear over here:

http://www.jessieho.com/xwView.asp?xw_id=518

Woooowww...so it is really true that only 8.7K 140's approved till July 2011 for this FY...that might be around 17.5K total 485's...i.e. 22.5K spilover... even new 140 applications come after July 20 2011, they will take 4 months to process, so no more real demand.... What do you guys think???

Neo...thanks for the info...

[veni001]

Woooowww...so it is really true that only 8.7K 140's approved till July 2011 for this FY...that might be around 17.5K total 485's...i.e. 22.5K spilover... even new 140 applications come after July 20 2011, they will take 4 months to process, so no more real demand.... What do you guys think???

Neo...thanks for the info...

soggadu,
Don't forget to add 7.6k EB1-485 pending as of 10-01-2010. :(

[soggadu]

soggadu,
Don't forget to add 7.6k EB1-485 pending as of 10-01-2011. :(

shouldn't that number be equal to this year waiting 485's for next year... i mean think about it... we can't really count all the 485's to be worked this year itself right...just like last year...what do u say...

What i meant is, there might b aprox 5K numbers which would be counted as FY 2012 from this year...

[veni001]

shouldn't that number be equal to this year waiting 485's for next year... i mean think about it... we can't really count all the 485's to be worked this year itself right...just like last year...what do u say...

What i meant is, there might b aprox 5K numbers which would be counted as FY 2012 from this year...

soggadu,
You can not double-dip by not counting EB1-140 approvals for the last 10 weeks of FY2011 and at the same time assuming EB1 backlog at the beginning of FY= EB1 backlog at the end of FY!

[leo07]

I think Veni meant 10-01-2010. Which partially would have appeared in 140 approvals listed.

[Spectator]

4. You can use following approval to denial ratio's at 140 stage in calculating 485 demand

EB1 - 81:19
EB2 - 87:13
EB3 - 97:3

or 15% across the boardVeni,

I wanted to ask about denial rates, since I was looking into this further this morning.

I know there is a previous post somewhere, but can you remind me how the EB2 and EB3 denial rate is calculated?

From the EB1 data, although the straight average is 19%, not all EB1 subcategories have equal percentages of cases or denial rates. In this case, the weighted average is 16.58%.

The USCIS Dashboard data and the recently published report http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf appear to be consistent. For I-140, the number of Receipts in the report exactly match those from the Dashboard. That should give some hope that other figures are also consistent.

For I-140, the Dashboard gives Completion data and the Report gives Approval data. Since Completions are Approvals + Denials, then by subtraction, we now know the Denial numbers.

This gives the following overall Denial rates for I-140 Completions in FY2011:

Quarter 1 ----- 14.90%

January 2011 -- 14.01%
February 2011 - 11.13%
March 2011 ----- 7.91%

Quarter 2 ----- 10.86%

Q1 + Q2 ------- 12.77%

Although the data is over a slightly longer period, we might assume that EB1 still has a denial rate of 16.6% within that.

In light of that information, what do the relative EB2 and EB3 denial rates look like?

Thanks in advance.

[soggadu]

soggadu,
You can not double-dip by not counting EB1-140 approvals for the last 10 weeks of FY2011 and at the same time assuming EB1 backlog at the beginning of FY= EB1 backlog at the end of FY!

Yes I agree but what I wanted to say is that there would be a number pending into next ur from this yr too right....

[nishant2200]

aila eb1 data bit clear over here:

http://www.jessieho.com/xwView.asp?xw_id=518

neospeed , your google/internet search kung-fu is amazing.

[veni001]

Here it is ....

From FY2011 Q1+Q2 PERM data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI)
Total Approvals=35k
IC approvals = 20k
ROWMP approvals = 15k

Using 70/30 for IC and 50/50 for ROWMP will give following EB2:EB3 breakdown
EB2 = 21.5k
EB3 = 13.5k
Total = 35k


From FY2011 i140 Receipts data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations)
Total i140 Receipts = 42K
EB1=7.0k
EB2=21.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
EB3=13.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
Total =42k

FY2011 Q1+Q2 I140 denials =4.5k (from my previous post)

Now, I am using the following logic for i140 denials

%EB1 denials>%EB2 denials>%EB3 denials, which means

4.5k = 7.0k(x%)+21.5k(y%)+13.5k(z%)
100%= 4.5k denials & x>y>z

Based on previous USCIS EB11&EB12 -i140 denial data (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) i am assuming X as 25% and solving for Y&Z

If you wish you can plug different number for X and then solve for Y & Z





Q,
When i plug 19% EB1 denial ratio (FY 2011 data) in the equations then based on PERM breakdown
EB2-i140 denial rate will be ~13% and EB3-i140 denial rate will be ~3%.



Veni,

I wanted to ask about denial rates, since I was looking into this further this morning.

I know there is a previous post somewhere, but can you remind me how the EB2 and EB3 denial rate is calculated?

From the EB1 data, although the straight average is 19%, not all EB1 subcategories have equal percentages of cases or denial rates. In this case, the weighted average is 16.58%.

The USCIS Dashboard data and the recently published report http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf appear to be consistent. For I-140, the number of Receipts in the report exactly match those from the Dashboard. That should give some hope that other figures are also consistent.

For I-140, the Dashboard gives Completion data and the Report gives Approval data. Since Completions are Approvals + Denials, then by subtraction, we now know the Denial numbers.

This gives the following overall Denial rates for I-140 Completions in FY2011:

Quarter 1 ----- 14.90%

January 2011 -- 14.01%
February 2011 - 11.13%
March 2011 ----- 7.91%

Quarter 2 ----- 10.86%

Q1 + Q2 ------- 12.77%

Although the data is over a slightly longer period, we might assume that EB1 still has a denial rate of 16.6% within that.

In light of that information, what do the relative EB2 and EB3 denial rates look like?

Thanks in advance.

Spec,
Please see the methodology i was using above.
For EB1, I am using straight denial rate of 19% for EB1 instead of weighted average.
This methodology provide a way to calculate EB2/EB3 denial rates by assuming one (or if we know one out of the three variables)
Please don't take this as 100% accurate since there are assumptions on receipts Vs Completions Vs Denials.

P.S: If you think this approach got any validity, we can work towards improving it.

[veni001]

Yes I agree but what I wanted to say is that there would be a number pending into next ur from this yr too right....

That's right, my point is if you want to assume the same EB1-485 backlog(beginning of FY= end of FY) then take full-year (12 months) EB1 demand into consideration, not just until July 19, 2011.

[kd2008]

Few things to note while estimating future demand based on PERM Certification Data:

1.Porting numbers are less than our estimates,and will not be significant while calculating demand from PERM data (Ex: 4.0k porting/year ~= 1K PERM)

2.In most cases while using PERM numbers, Porting out ~= Porting in(future), this will neutralize the effect for calculations.

3.PERM is a costly and time consuming process, So all most all PERM approvals will have 140 filing.

4.Based on PW data you can use following breakdown for EB2:EB3 to derive EB2/EB3 demand

IC - 75:25
ROWMP - 65:35

4. You can use following approval to denial ratio's at 140 stage in calculating 485 demand

EB1 - 81:19
EB2 - 87:13
EB3 - 97:3

or 15% across the board

5. At the end you can use i140 to 485 ratio to estimate 485 demand.

Q, Spec, Veni, Could we add the above algorithm to the place where Spec has his algorithm to calculate PERM data in Facts and Data? May be also mention that I-485/I-140 ratio for Eb2IC is 2.04 avg. I think this will help newbies calculate the number of people ahead of them and verify what we all are talking about.

[qesehmk]

Veni / Spec

Good suggestion by KD. If its not already there may be in the next week or earlier I will put together a simple picture of how to calculate how much demand is ahead of somebody. If you have it already ready please go ahead. Otherwise I will do it as I said.


Q, Spec, Veni, Could we add the above algorithm to the place where Spec has his algorithm to calculate PERM data in Facts and Data? May be also mention that I-485/I-140 ratio for Eb2IC is 2.04 avg. I think this will help newbies calculate the number of people ahead of them and verify what we all are talking about.

[Spectator]

Veni,

I wanted to have one last comment about EB1 backlog going into FY2012, then I am going to leave it alone.

First, let's forget any previous backlog from previous years.

We have the EB1 July figures and we also know from the USCIS Processing times that TSC is taking 8 months to adjudicate EB1 I-140 and NSC is taking slightly over 4 months.

The July data is approximately 10 months into the FY.

So we might surmise that when the report was generated, that 8/10 of TSC receipts have yet to be adjudicated and 4/10 of NSC receipts remain unadjudicated.

That gives a total of just over 9.6k backlog at the date of the report.

As the months continue to the end of the year, eventually that amount will fall off the end of FY2011 into FY2012 as the starting backlog.

In fact, because Completions are less than Receipts, we might expect the backlog to increase before reaching the end of the FY to around 10.3k.

If Receipts and Processing Times at the respective Service Centers remain unchanged in FY2012, enough further I-140s can be approved such that c. 35k I-485s could be approved (taking into account the I-140 denial rate) in FY2012.

Possibly, this is one we may have to agree to disagree on.;)

[veni001]

Veni,

I wanted to have one last comment about EB1 backlog going into FY2012, then I am going to leave it alone.

First, let's forget any previous backlog from previous years.

We have the EB1 July figures and we also know from the USCIS Processing times that TSC is taking 8 months to adjudicate EB1 I-140 and NSC is taking slightly over 4 months.

The July data is approximately 10 months into the FY.

So we might surmise that when the report was generated, that 8/10 of TSC receipts have yet to be adjudicated and 4/10 of NSC receipts remain unadjudicated.

That gives a total of just over 9.6k backlog at the date of the report.

As the months continue to the end of the year, eventually that amount will fall off the end of FY2011 into FY2012 as the starting backlog.

In fact, because Completions are less than Receipts, we might expect the backlog to increase before reaching the end of the FY to around 10.3k.

If Receipts and Processing Times at the respective Service Centers remain unchanged in FY2012, enough further I-140s can be approved such that c. 35k I-485s could be approved (taking into account the I-140 denial rate) in FY2012.

Possibly, this is one we may have to agree to disagree on.;)

Spec,
We always agree to disagree:)

In theory what you said is exactly correct, but those processing times are averages.

Remember i had to remove some of the USCIS average processing times from the update in FACTS AND DATA section after you provided clarification.

In practice irrespective of processing times numbers should match ( Receipts = Completions + Backlog + "delta" )

I think we will get better picture once we know full year EB1-140 receipts Vs FY2011 usage, probably early FY2012!

Until then we can leave it here...

[vedu]

Veni,

I wanted to have one last comment about EB1 backlog going into FY2012, then I am going to leave it alone.

First, let's forget any previous backlog from previous years.

We have the EB1 July figures and we also know from the USCIS Processing times that TSC is taking 8 months to adjudicate EB1 I-140 and NSC is taking slightly over 4 months.

The July data is approximately 10 months into the FY.

So we might surmise that when the report was generated, that 8/10 of TSC receipts have yet to be adjudicated and 4/10 of NSC receipts remain unadjudicated.

That gives a total of just over 9.6k backlog at the date of the report.

As the months continue to the end of the year, eventually that amount will fall off the end of FY2011 into FY2012 as the starting backlog.

In fact, because Completions are less than Receipts, we might expect the backlog to increase before reaching the end of the FY to around 10.3k.

If Receipts and Processing Times at the respective Service Centers remain unchanged in FY2012, enough further I-140s can be approved such that c. 35k I-485s could be approved (taking into account the I-140 denial rate) in FY2012.

Possibly, this is one we may have to agree to disagree on.;)

Spec/Veni,

Many of the EB1 applicants (approximately 50%) apply for premium processing. So I don't think that USCIS processing time delays affect them. They get their I-140's approved within days.

[Spectator]

Spec/Veni,

Many of the EB1 applicants (approximately 50%) apply for premium processing. So I don't think that USCIS processing time delays affect them. They get their I-140's approved within days.vedu,

A fair point, but I don't think the % is correct.

EB1C cannot use Premium Processing at all.

Trackitt suggests PP for EB1 is around 10-14%.

Trackitt EB1 data is heavily loaded towards Indian applicants, who are far more likely to use PP. ROW, who form the majority of EB1 may not be quite so concerned, but are not very well represented on Trackitt.

Since many, if not most EB1 seem to attract an RFE, the number who would actually be approved within days, is probably far less than even that number.

[vedu]

Trackitt EB1 data is heavily loaded towards Indian applicants, who are far more likely to use PP. ROW, who form the majority of EB1 may not be quite so concerned, but are not very well represented on Trackitt.



Spec,

What makes you think that Indian EB1 applicants are far more likely to use PP than ROW EB1 applicants? Is there any evidence to suggest that? Just asking....

[veni001]

Spec,

What makes you think that Indian EB1 applicants are far more likely to use PP than ROW EB1 applicants? Is there any evidence to suggest that? Just asking....

vedu,
This is based on trackitt data.

[mesan123]

Is it true by default can people in EB3 file to EB2 ????

"What can go wrong is less EB1 spill over once pending app from 2011 start getting clear in 2012 and more porting since it will be 5th year after so many EB3 who had filled AOS, they might be eligible for EB2 just without doing master. "


What I think is there will be at least 5-6 k Porting and 2-3k people who could not file for AOS in 2007. total so far is 7-8k and each month average has 2.5k in 2007 upto july so if we take same then it will be another 12.5k from Aug - Dec 2007. which is 19-20k just before 2007 end.

Now if DOS sees there can be enough supply of visas in next year they will move date to that level. from history I can say that there is 20-30k visa supply to EB2 IC including their regular quota in last 2-3 years. going with same level date can move till Dec 2007 - March 2008 next year if all above assumptions true.


What can go wrong is less EB1 spill over once pending app from 2011 start getting clear in 2012 and more porting since it will be 5th year after so many EB3 who had filled AOS, they might be eligible for EB2 just without doing master.

[pch053]

Teddy, Veni,

You are correct in the sense that the dispute is about H-2B. But if you read carefully, the note it says, "Pending the foregoing court battle jig jags, the agency's prevailing wage determination has been suspended. It is uncertain whether the determination of prevailing wage, ETA 9141, can be resumed soon or will have to wait until 10/01/2011"

So all PWD is stopped for now. So it affects PERM also. Hence the title of post says, "Causing Delays in Recruiting for and Filing of PERM Applications" which applies to the green card process.


kd2008 I agree you are probably right even though the dispute is related to H2B it sems to affect the entire process. Lets wait for further updates.

Does this imply that there will be no Labor certification and prevailing wage certification for new H1B applicants or any H1B transfer cases too?

[pch053]

Is it true by default can people in EB3 file to EB2 ????

"What can go wrong is less EB1 spill over once pending app from 2011 start getting clear in 2012 and more porting since it will be 5th year after so many EB3 who had filled AOS, they might be eligible for EB2 just without doing master. "

No, people from EB3 won't be eligible to apply in EB2 category by default. If an individual with an approved I140 under EB3 category, joins a new job that fulfills the requirement pertaining to EB2 category and the individual meets the necessary qualification, then s/he can apply for a green card under EB2 category. In this case, the individual can use the PD from the earlier approved I140 under EB3 category. The average estimate is that there are around 3K - 4K EB3 -> EB2 porting cases every year.

[mesan123]

Thank you for the reply..


No, people from EB3 won't be eligible to apply in EB2 category by default. If an individual with an approved I140 under EB3 category, joins a new job that fulfills the requirement pertaining to EB2 category and the individual meets the necessary qualification, then s/he can apply for a green card under EB2 category. In this case, the individual can use the PD from the earlier approved I140 under EB3 category. The average estimate is that there are around 3K - 4K EB3 -> EB2 porting cases every year.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

This month we made yet another small donation. ($85 Sankara Netralaya). This will cover one free cataract surgery for a needy person.

Some of the site users asked us if THIS SITE needed donations. Forunately we don't. But if you want to donate, then please donate to our Charity of the Month. (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?135-Sankara-Netralaya&p=6057#post6057)

You can find individual credits listed at the top of the donations thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=6058#post6058).

p.s. - Also for next month we have two suggestions so far. 1) Hrudaya (http://hrudaya.com/) 2) Udavum Karangal (Helping Hands) (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?132-Udavum-Karangal-(Helping-Hands)). We can select one of these as our Charity of Month for next month (or any other if there are more suggestions). So please feel free to add more suggestions to the different thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=6058#post6058) - as long as the charity has a registered US based non-profit front to accept donations in US. I will add a poll to select one of these charities after 10th of this month.

[kolugc]

On a bit different note, are we heading to another recession or what? I am sure that would affect most of us in one way or other. I hope its not another recession coming and just small phase of recovery. Please share your inputs.

[ishore]

Friends, Do you think dates are going to retrogress this october because of new filings? i filed mine in july with PD Dec 29, 2006

[qesehmk]

IMHO any movement upto Mid July 2007 will not require retrogression.


Friends, Do you think dates are going to retrogress this october because of new filings? i filed mine in july with PD Dec 29, 2006

[kd2008]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904292504576482573203358158.html?m od=googlenews_wsj

Also on immigration-law.com:
"08/02/2011: USCIS Reportedly to Announce Today Administrative Fix Plan for Employment-Based Immigrants

Report indicates that the USCIS Director disclosed yesterday that he will unveil today a plan to make it easier for some foreigners to qualify for legal permanent residence, or green cards, if they can demonstrate their work will be in the U.S. national interest. The changes will also include a way for entrepreneurs to obtain work visas without a job offer from an established company. Reportedly he also plans to announce that USCIS will be training its examiners on how visa-eligibility requirements apply to entrepreneurs. As part of the new initiatives, foreign entrepreneurs will be eligible for a so-called EB-2 immigrant visa without a specific job offer, as long as they demonstrate that their business endeavors will be in the U.S. national interest. As part of the new measures, a sole entrepreneur can also qualify for an H-1B if the individual's employment is decided by a corporate board or shareholders of the start-up company. The USCIS is reportedly also seeking to speed up the approval process by hiring additional adjudicators to evaluate applications and enabling petitioners to make their case before an expert panel should their application require further evidence or be denied. The moves apparently come as demand for H-1B visas has fallen.
Please stay tuned to this website for the scheduled release of the plan. "

[ravisekhar]

Looks like some changes will be announced today regarding Eb2 and Investor visa.

As part of the new initiatives, foreign entrepreneurs will be eligible for a so-called EB-2 immigrant visa without a specific job offer, as long as they demonstrate that their business endeavors will be in the U.S. national interest.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904292504576482573203358158.html?m od=googlenews_wsj

[Pedro Gonzales]

The same continued later as well. For example Microsoft had lay-offs in the first half of 2009. They didn't encourage filing for new PERM applications almost till 2010 June. Also even though lay offs were in 2009, all those people who filed for PERM from MSFT in late 2008 got an audit in late 2009.

Ditto with Intel, they didn't file any PERMs until early 2011. Not sure when they stopped issuing PERMS, but it was at least all of 2009 and 2010, potentially even late 2008.

[ssvp22]

Looks like some changes will be announced today regarding Eb2 and Investor visa.

As part of the new initiatives, foreign entrepreneurs will be eligible for a so-called EB-2 immigrant visa without a specific job offer, as long as they demonstrate that their business endeavors will be in the U.S. national interest.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111904292504576482573203358158.html?m od=googlenews_wsj
This is great news guys. Finally the employee-employer tethering is going away. Personally, i never liked working for a big co.

[natvyas]

This is great news guys. Finally the employee-employer tethering is going away. Personally, i never liked working for a big co.

Am I missing something here?


I dont understand how this is good news...this is like creating another category with the same number of visas (140K ). To allocate visa to this new category they will have take some away from another category. Then the rules of FD will have to outlined.....

[nishant2200]

Bingo. Bad bad bad.


Am I missing something here?


I dont understand how this is good news...this is like creating another category with the same number of visas (140K ). To allocate visa to this new category they will have take some away from another category. Then the rules of FD will have to outlined.....

[PlainSpeak]

Am I missing something here?


I dont understand how this is good news...this is like creating another category with the same number of visas (140K ). To allocate visa to this new category they will have take some away from another category. Then the rules of FD will have to outlined.....

Good news is that CIS is moving towards removing the employer - employee tethering for applicants who can shows national interest. I think this will nto amount to a hugh number as not everyone can prove this except for people who are working towards starting their own startup companies and remember that national interest does not mean any business (Like starting a dunkins donouts) or anything like that but a business which is in the national interest of the country. I think the parameters will be very rigid and i for one hope CIS does due diligence based on their experinece till now to not allow fraud in this category.

Bad news is that this count will come from the existing 140 k.

[leo07]

Too early to Call on this. On the face of it, with the limited information and poorly worded WJ article, it's hard to predict what's going to be in the package. i'm sure it'd include more than just adding EB2IC in the already crowded line. which, btw doesn't serve any purpose what so ever.




Bingo. Bad bad bad.

[svbmanian]

Hi All,

I have seen a case of my friend who had applied for I-485 for himself and spouse on June 1 2011, he had finger printing in first week of July and today both of them recieved the green card.

Looks like the I-485 processing completes in 2 months or less. This may cause PWMB or other EB categories (EB2ROW,EB1) if they filed for I-485 recently to eat into the spillover. Has this been considered in predicting the sep. bulletin. ?

There is a high possibility that PWMB with PD till Apr 15 2007, will get approved in this year quota and possibly very slight date movement in sep. bulletin.

[qesehmk]

How can it be bad. It opens the possibility for enterprenuers who then don't have to be backlogged for years. Secondly it removes people from the clutches of the big companies and frees them to do what they want to do.

We don't know yet if they will count E2 towards the 140K. If they don't then that's a definite plus. If they do, even then its a plus considering it creates a short cut for those who feel limited in their current career.


Bingo. Bad bad bad.

[Spectator]

It seems I was not the only one who was distinctly un-wowed by the contents of the article.

The ramping up of resources to deal with EB-5 we already knew about.

As I read it, entrepreneurship would be deemed worthy of a NIW under EB2. A job offer was never a pre-requisite for this.

So we can eventually look forward to increased approvals in both EB2-NIW and EB5.

Any increase in EB5 approvals reduces the available spillover.

In EB2-NIW, the proposals seem particularly unfair, given the present situation.

If you happen to be anyone other than IC, then it is a potentially quick route to a GC, but it is likely to create additional demand against the allocation and would further reduce available spillover.

For IC, it is still a fairly long wait, by which time the whiff of entrepreneurship may have died. I accept that the changes to the H1B are designed to avoid this, but still. Exempting from numerical limitations would have done the trick, but that needs legislation.

It seems a bit of the cart before the horse.

I will reserve judgement until the details are officially released. The devil is often in the detail. If the requirements to qualify are anything like the proposed EB-6 visa, it won't be that easy. It becomes more like window dressing.

Maybe I have just lost the ability to see the good in proposals. :(

[qesehmk]

Spec did they say E2 will be counted against existing EB visas?


It seems I was not the only one who was distinctly un-wowed by the contents of the article.

The ramping up of resources to deal with EB-5 we already knew about.

As I read it, entrepreneurship would be deemed worthy of a NIW under EB2. A job offer was never a pre-requisite for this.

So we can eventually look forward to increased approvals in both EB2-NIW and EB5.

Any increase in EB5 approvals reduces the available spillover.

In EB2-NIW, the proposals seem particularly unfair, given the present situation.

If you happen to be anyone other than IC, then it is a potentially quick route to a GC, but it is additional demand against the allocation and would further reduce available spillover. Potentially, enough demand from EB2-NIW-ROW-M-P could actually use spillover.

For IC, it is still a fairly long wait, by which time the whiff of entrepreneurship may have died. I accept that the changes to the H1B are designed to avoid this, but still. Exempting from numerical limitations would have done the trick, but that needs legislation.

It seems a bit of the cart before the horse.

I will reserve judgement until the details are officially released. The devil is often in the detail. If the requirements to qualify are anything like the proposed EB-6 visa, it won't be that easy. It becomes more like window dressing.

Maybe I have just lost the ability to see the good in proposals. :(

[familyguy]

Here we go (Employment-Based Second Preference Immigrant Visa Category)...

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=93da6b814ba81310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=6abe6d26d17df110VgnVCM1000004718190a RCRD

Q5. Can an entrepreneur qualify as an individual of exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business?
A5. Yes. An entrepreneur can qualify if the:

Entrepreneur will be working for a U.S. employer who files a petition on the entrepreneur’s behalf
Entrepreneur will be working in the sciences, arts, or business
Entrepreneur has exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business
Entrepreneur will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy, cultural or educational interests, or welfare of the United States
Petitioning employer has received an individual labor certification from the Department of Labor; and
Entrepreneur meets all the specific job requirements listed on the individual labor

[natvyas]

How can it be bad. It opens the possibility for enterprenuers who then don't have to be backlogged for years. Secondly it removes people from the clutches of the big companies and frees them to do what they want to do.

We don't know yet if they will count E2 towards the 140K. If they don't then that's a definite plus. If they do, even then its a plus considering it creates a short cut for those who feel limited in their current career.

This will have to count towards the 140K....adding more green cards on top of 140K for any reason will have to be passed by Congress. USCIS does not have the authority to increase the numbers.

[Spectator]

Spec did they say E2 will be counted against existing EB visas?Q,

The article said:


The measures won't require congressional approval because they don't constitute changes in current immigration law. Instead, clarifications will be issued for existing visa categories with the objective of enabling more entrepreneurs to gain entry into the U.S. and of bringing more speed and efficiency to the visa-application process.

Both additional visas, or exemption from existing numbers, require congressional approval for changes to the law and are therefore outside the scope of any changes USCIS can announce.

That's how I read it anyway.

[qesehmk]

You are absolutely right then. It will be counted against existing 140K. But its still a minor plus whenever it happens. Doesn't hurt anybody ..... but creates an opportunity for waannabe enterprenuers.


Q,

The article said:



Both additional visas, or exemption from existing numbers, require congressional approval for changes to the law and are therefore outside the scope of any changes USCIS can announce.

That's how I read it anyway.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. This is good. I am wondering if this opens up EB2 door for a lot of EB3 guys if they can try to qualify in the same job by doing something on the side and qualifying as an enterprenur.


Here we go (Employment-Based Second Preference Immigrant Visa Category)...

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=93da6b814ba81310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=6abe6d26d17df110VgnVCM1000004718190a RCRD

Q5. Can an entrepreneur qualify as an individual of exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business?
A5. Yes. An entrepreneur can qualify if the:

Entrepreneur will be working for a U.S. employer who files a petition on the entrepreneur’s behalf
Entrepreneur will be working in the sciences, arts, or business
Entrepreneur has exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business
Entrepreneur will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy, cultural or educational interests, or welfare of the United States
Petitioning employer has received an individual labor certification from the Department of Labor; and
Entrepreneur meets all the specific job requirements listed on the individual labor

[soggadu]

Friends,

This month we made yet another small donation. ($85 Sankara Netralaya). This will cover one free cataract surgery for a needy person.

Some of the site users asked us if THIS SITE needed donations. Forunately we don't. But if you want to donate, then please donate to our Charity of the Month. (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?135-Sankara-Netralaya&p=6057#post6057)

You can find individual credits listed at the top of the donations thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=6058#post6058).

p.s. - Also for next month we have two suggestions so far. 1) Hrudaya (http://hrudaya.com/) 2) Udavum Karangal (Helping Hands) (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?132-Udavum-Karangal-(Helping-Hands)). We can select one of these as our Charity of Month for next month (or any other if there are more suggestions). So please feel free to add more suggestions to the different thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=6058#post6058) - as long as the charity has a registered US based non-profit front to accept donations in US. I will add a poll to select one of these charities after 10th of this month.

Q, awesome... I am big fan of yours because of these activities rather than number crunching... Not everybody has such a big heart you know... Coming to your question... For next month i would suggest our donations to go to Helping hands...

[nishant2200]

Q, perhaps I should have elaborated more.

They already have EB5, as well as EB2 NIW. So this additional program is certainly planning to carve out a new category in EB2, without any increase in existing 140k allocation.

I am the sole earner, in a family of five, supporting parents in India, and wife and young child here. I will complete 10 years in the USA this week. I am certainly not lion hearted enough to be happy with the above proposal. I want the stability and peace of mind for my family.

Another thing, we talk about entrepreneurs here. There is going to be fraud. I personally know one Indian, who on H1B itself, had opened a consulting company, with the usual training, fake interviews, falsifying resumes, taking advantage of students needing a job, or people back home in country who want to come here, has rented apartments with 4 people in one room, and the day he got green card, he plans to leave his job with employer and totally focus on his "entrepreneurship". Last weekend I was in a friend's place and this guy was there, and he was casually joking how stupid the entire system is, and how he makes exorbitant billing rates. Many other topics were talked about which I will not digress here but you get the idea.

This is just an example which I know, there would be many such from various cultures and countries we don't know of. I am personally not vilifying anyone here, not vilifying any job here, it is what it is, I am not here to do advocacy or say what is fraud. Whatever law didn't catch, that's legal, who am I to say it's wrong.

I think that existing EB2 NIW, and EB5 are enough, and they should focus on streamlining them, rather than creating one more potential loop hole.


How can it be bad. It opens the possibility for enterprenuers who then don't have to be backlogged for years. Secondly it removes people from the clutches of the big companies and frees them to do what they want to do.

We don't know yet if they will count E2 towards the 140K. If they don't then that's a definite plus. If they do, even then its a plus considering it creates a short cut for those who feel limited in their current career.

[bieber]

Exempting legal immigrants from quota when they purchase a house is the most creative solution that they can implement, this is not from me, many high profile people already suggested this to the govt

It won't solve the housing crisis but just acts like cash for clunkers program

[leo07]

I agree with this. Any extra visa numbers must pass through congress. So, looks like they are just relaxing the existing laws, to make use of the existing numbers. If that's the case then IC categories are royally screwed.

Even if the IC qualify for these visas, they will be seriously retrogressed. So, they are hoping to rope in & benefit from investors from all over the world but IC??

Given H1B is consumed < 22K this year, there may not be much interest from ROW, given the debt-threats and economy these days.


This will have to count towards the 140K....adding more green cards on top of 140K for any reason will have to be passed by Congress. USCIS does not have the authority to increase the numbers.

[qblogfan]

I agree with you 100%.

This program will not help us at all. This will not reduce our waiting time. On the contrary, it may reduce the SOFAD significantly.

It's like putting salt on our wounds again.


Q, perhaps I should have elaborated more.

They already have EB5, as well as EB2 NIW. So this additional program is certainly planning to carve out a new category in EB2, without any increase in existing 140k allocation.

I am the sole earner, in a family of five, supporting parents in India, and wife and young child here. I will complete 10 years in the USA this week. I am certainly not lion hearted enough to be happy with the above proposal. I want the stability and peace of mind for my family.

Another thing, we talk about entrepreneurs here. There is going to be fraud. I personally know one Indian, who on H1B itself, had opened a consulting company, with the usual training, fake interviews, falsifying resumes, taking advantage of students needing a job, or people back home in country who want to come here, has rented apartments with 4 people in one room, and the day he got green card, he plans to leave his job with employer and totally focus on his "entrepreneurship". Last weekend I was in a friend's place and this guy was there, and he was casually joking how stupid the entire system is, and how he makes exorbitant billing rates. Many other topics were talked about which I will not digress here but you get the idea.

This is just an example which I know, there would be many such from various cultures and countries we don't know of. I am personally not vilifying anyone here, not vilifying any job here, it is what it is, I am not here to do advocacy or say what is fraud. Whatever law didn't catch, that's legal, who am I to say it's wrong.

I think that existing EB2 NIW, and EB5 are enough, and they should focus on streamlining them, rather than creating one more potential loop hole.

[gc_usa]

Q, perhaps I should have elaborated more.

They already have EB5, as well as EB2 NIW. So this additional program is certainly planning to carve out a new category in EB2, without any increase in existing 140k allocation.

I am the sole earner, in a family of five, supporting parents in India, and wife and young child here. I will complete 10 years in the USA this week. I am certainly not lion hearted enough to be happy with the above proposal. I want the stability and peace of mind for my family.

Another thing, we talk about entrepreneurs here. There is going to be fraud. I personally know one Indian, who on H1B itself, had opened a consulting company, with the usual training, fake interviews, falsifying resumes, taking advantage of students needing a job, or people back home in country who want to come here, has rented apartments with 4 people in one room, and the day he got green card, he plans to leave his job with employer and totally focus on his "entrepreneurship". Last weekend I was in a friend's place and this guy was there, and he was casually joking how stupid the entire system is, and how he makes exorbitant billing rates. Many other topics were talked about which I will not digress here but you get the idea.

This is just an example which I know, there would be many such from various cultures and countries we don't know of. I am personally not vilifying anyone here, not vilifying any job here, it is what it is, I am not here to do advocacy or say what is fraud. Whatever law didn't catch, that's legal, who am I to say it's wrong.

I think that existing EB2 NIW, and EB5 are enough, and they should focus on streamlining them, rather than creating one more potential loop hole.

I understand your pain my friend. They are not creating new loophole but they are helping themselves. By doing this EB IC will be stuck forever and more money on EAD / AP and possibly AC21 filling coming next year. Go figure how much this agency going to make from EB IC people.

[qblogfan]

We don't have enough numbers. People have waited for ten years, but these politicians don't care about the people who have paid tax for 10 years. All they want is to get the exsiting backlog more congested and use GC to enslave the poor guys.


I agree with this. Any extra visa numbers must pass through congress. So, looks like they are just relaxing the existing laws, to make use of the existing numbers. If that's the case then IC categories are royally screwed.

Even if the IC qualify for these visas, they will be seriously retrogressed. So, they are hoping to rope in & benefit from investors from all over the world but IC??

Given H1B is consumed < 22K this year, there may not be much interest from ROW, given the debt-threats and economy these days.

[qesehmk]

nishant

I must admit I haven't understood nor can I guess the motive behind this move. The move itself is unclear in how it is different from EB5 and EB2-NIW. The only thing I can think of is that it possibly creates some sort of backdoor for EB3's to qualify for EB2.


Q, perhaps I should have elaborated more.

They already have EB5, as well as EB2 NIW. So this additional program is certainly planning to carve out a new category in EB2, without any increase in existing 140k allocation.

I am the sole earner, in a family of five, supporting parents in India, and wife and young child here. I will complete 10 years in the USA this week. I am certainly not lion hearted enough to be happy with the above proposal. I want the stability and peace of mind for my family.

Another thing, we talk about entrepreneurs here. There is going to be fraud. I personally know one Indian, who on H1B itself, had opened a consulting company, with the usual training, fake interviews, falsifying resumes, taking advantage of students needing a job, or people back home in country who want to come here, has rented apartments with 4 people in one room, and the day he got green card, he plans to leave his job with employer and totally focus on his "entrepreneurship". Last weekend I was in a friend's place and this guy was there, and he was casually joking how stupid the entire system is, and how he makes exorbitant billing rates. Many other topics were talked about which I will not digress here but you get the idea.

This is just an example which I know, there would be many such from various cultures and countries we don't know of. I am personally not vilifying anyone here, not vilifying any job here, it is what it is, I am not here to do advocacy or say what is fraud. Whatever law didn't catch, that's legal, who am I to say it's wrong.

I think that existing EB2 NIW, and EB5 are enough, and they should focus on streamlining them, rather than creating one more potential loop hole.


.. For next month i would suggest our donations to go to Helping hands...

soggadu thanks for kind words. I will add helping hands to our list for next month and later this month we can all vote!

[qblogfan]

I agree with you. I am in pain too. The purpose of GC system is to exploit people and get profit as much as they can. During the GC process, the employers have too much power. Based on the immigration law, we don't have any legal base to interfere the PERM/140 process. They keep people in dark for five or six years. The attorneys want to make more money and collabrate with the employers to manipulate these poor guys. These agencies represent the rich employers and the evil attorneys. They don't care about EB immigrants at all. We are powerless...........


I understand your pain my friend. They are not creating new loophole but they are helping themselves. By doing this EB IC will be stuck forever and more money on EAD / AP and possibly AC21 filling coming next year. Go figure how much this agency going to make from EB IC people.

[romanitaly]

This is the first time I am hearing about this suggestion. I think it will be good if implemented. But there is a possibility that everyone in line for GC goes and buys a home just to get exempt from the quota. It does require to have a good credit history which may eliminate a few people new to the country.


Exempting legal immigrants from quota when they purchase a house is the most creative solution that they can implement, this is not from me, many high profile people already suggested this to the govt

It won't solve the housing crisis but just acts like cash for clunkers program

[ssvp22]

Entrepreneur will be working for a U.S. employer who files a petition on the entrepreneur’s behalf

I am not too sure how an Entrepreneur can work for someone. In that case you just go back to the old employer-employee relationship



I will complete 10 years in the USA this week.
It is now 11 years for me. To live and survive in this country you need to understand this country. If you want to live here you have to pay the immigrant tax aka slavery till you get the GC. You can watch the movie "Gangs of New York" and you will realize its the same culture over the past 200-300 years.

Also, everyone needs to look at the bigger picture. Only Entrepreneurs add new jobs to economy. Big cos are always like - hire some, fire some mode. Besides that, no immigrant worth his salt came to US to be a 9-5 DBA or software engineer. If you did, you were mistaken, and hence the resulting exploitation of you and your kids(you start seeing the impact on them by the time they are 5-6 years of age. Trust me on this).

Besides that, from what i have read, for this Entrepreneur visa, you will have to have a company with a Board of Directors. I suspect each of the Directors will need to be an accredited investor (http://www.sec.gov/answers/accred.htm), which is not easy to build. So dont expect that you will be able to qualify by opening a body shopping firm or EB3 folks will use it to jump the ship. INS is not that naive.

[nishant2200]

I am not too sure how an Entrepreneur can work for someone. In that you just go back to the old employer-employee relationship



It is now 11 years for me. To live and survive in this country you need to understand this country. If you want to live here you have to pay the immigrant tax aka slavery till you get the GC. You can watch the movie "Gangs of New York" and you will realize its the same culture over the past 200-300 years.

Also, everyone needs to look at the bigger picture. Only Entrepreneurs add new jobs to economy. Big cos are always like - hire some, fire some mode. Besides that, no immigrant worth his salt came to US to be a 9-5 DBA or software engineer. If you did, you were mistaken, and hence the resulting exploitation of you and your kids(you start seeing the impact on them by the time they are 5-6 years of age. Trust me on this).

Besides that, from what i have read, for this Entrepreneur visa, you will have to have a company with a Board of Directors. I suspect each of the Directors will need to be an accredited investor (http://www.sec.gov/answers/accred.htm), which is not easy to build. So dont expect that you will be able to qualify by opening a body shopping firm or EB3 folks will use it to jump the ship. INS is not that naive.

good points. but would like to mention that body shopping firms are not that naive either, don't underestimate them :)

[ssvp22]

good points. but would like to mention that body shopping firms are not that naive either, don't underestimate them :)

Yeah till the time you find them chaaki peesing in Tihar Jail or something similar in US. Anyhow, all i want to say is, look at the positives of the change. There will always be people who abuse laws, but that does not mean change should not happen. Its akin to saying of NJ gov - lets not repair the highways since it going to break anyway next year after snow season.

[qesehmk]

I echo every single word you say here... For a casual person, this movie is a great window into the history of rivalry between different immigrant groups.



...To live and survive in this country you need to understand this country. If you want to live here you have to pay the immigrant tax aka slavery till you get the GC. You can watch the movie "Gangs of New York" and you will realize its the same culture over the past 200-300 years.

[nishant2200]

Now only if some new data comes in, we can get back to numbers and predictions :)

really looking fwd to the demand data release and later on down the line, the pending I-485 report

[pch053]

As we are approaching the day for the Sep bulletin (maybe it will be a week from today) where the consensus lies on the most expected PD for EB2-I/C? I think Teddy is predicting another 2K - 3K spillover which will move the dates to May-June'07 time frame and Q is a bit optimistic (another 5K+ spillover) & expects the dates to move to July'07. Any feedback from Q's source or any input from CO in the Chinese immigration website yet?

[nishant2200]

There is a blog of a person called CM USA non immigrant blog , and last time when everyone was expecting huge movement, he had put a comment, in which he said, he has a source in a law firm, who told him that movement will be small, because USCIS is concerned of the backlog in EB1 and EB2 ROW (his words were reduction in demand in these categories). And that turned out to be true, small movement. Now many things over there looks like he may actually be copying over from Q's blog, or maybe both are quite accurate on similar crunching, but he also caters to all other non -immigrant related categories and visas. Take this on your own merit. This time he is saying below:

"So here is the update from my friend at the law firm. This is what they expect in September bulletin and Q1 of FY 2011. I am just posting the facts he quoted. How accurate it is unknown to me like everyone here who is speculating some good movement for next visa bulletin.

1) There is decent increase in the I-485 filings for EB1 in last two months. On average EB1 approvals are not that high but are coming regularly. They are hoping for some increase in approvals in last two months.

2) EB2 filings are still at same level like previous few months. No surge in EB2 approvals. Trend in approval is shifting more downwards compared to last few months.

3) They have filed lot of I-485 cases for EB2-IC since May 2011. These are mostly those who did not file in July 2007 (primary + dependent) and only for dependents of primary applicants who filed in July 2007. The firm alone has filed around 250-300 such applications For May-July VB.

4) They at the firm believe movement for September 2011 VB will be equivalent to last month’s VB. They believe dates will just cross PD May 2007.

5) After September 2011 VB, dates will keep on moving by one week until Q1 of FY 2012 and then stall until May 2012.

6) They believe that EB3-ROW-M-P and EB3-I will move more than usual in Sep VB. (I am very surprised at this statement. This is only possible if some visa numbers are left from annual quota for each category)

CM – This is update from our friend. My take for EB2-IC is still at 15 June 2007 for September VB"

[neospeed]

There is a blog of a person called CM USA non immigrant blog , and last time when everyone was expecting huge movement, he had put a comment, in which he said, he has a source in a law firm, who told him that movement will be small, because USCIS is concerned of the backlog in EB1 and EB2 ROW (his words were reduction in demand in these categories). And that turned out to be true, small movement. Now many things over there looks like he may actually be copying over from Q's blog, or maybe both are quite accurate on similar crunching, but he also caters to all other non -immigrant related categories and visas. Take this on your own merit. This time he is saying below:

"So here is the update from my friend at the law firm. This is what they expect in September bulletin and Q1 of FY 2011. I am just posting the facts he quoted. How accurate it is unknown to me like everyone here who is speculating some good movement for next visa bulletin.

1) There is decent increase in the I-485 filings for EB1 in last two months. On average EB1 approvals are not that high but are coming regularly. They are hoping for some increase in approvals in last two months.

2) EB2 filings are still at same level like previous few months. No surge in EB2 approvals. Trend in approval is shifting more downwards compared to last few months.

3) They have filed lot of I-485 cases for EB2-IC since May 2011. These are mostly those who did not file in July 2007 (primary + dependent) and only for dependents of primary applicants who filed in July 2007. The firm alone has filed around 250-300 such applications For May-July VB.

4) They at the firm believe movement for September 2011 VB will be equivalent to last month’s VB. They believe dates will just cross PD May 2007.

5) After September 2011 VB, dates will keep on moving by one week until Q1 of FY 2012 and then stall until May 2012.

6) They believe that EB3-ROW-M-P and EB3-I will move more than usual in Sep VB. (I am very surprised at this statement. This is only possible if some visa numbers are left from annual quota for each category)

CM – This is update from our friend. My take for EB2-IC is still at 15 June 2007 for September VB"


fifth point doesn't sound realistic. But heard the same in some other forum.

[leo07]

Thanks Nishanth!

It more or less resonates with the analysis and predictions of many in this forum. Can you post the link to the blog? ( I think I may know it already, just want to confirm)


There is a blog of a person called CM USA non immigrant blog , and last time when everyone was expecting huge movement, he had put a comment, in which he said, he has a source in a law firm, who told him that movement will be small, because USCIS is concerned of the backlog in EB1 and EB2 ROW (his words were reduction in demand in these categories). And that turned out to be true, small movement. Now many things over there looks like he may actually be copying over from Q's blog, or maybe both are quite accurate on similar crunching, but he also caters to all other non -immigrant related categories and visas. Take this on your own merit. This time he is saying below:

"So here is the update from my friend at the law firm. This is what they expect in September bulletin and Q1 of FY 2011. I am just posting the facts he quoted. How accurate it is unknown to me like everyone here who is speculating some good movement for next visa bulletin.

1) There is decent increase in the I-485 filings for EB1 in last two months. On average EB1 approvals are not that high but are coming regularly. They are hoping for some increase in approvals in last two months.

2) EB2 filings are still at same level like previous few months. No surge in EB2 approvals. Trend in approval is shifting more downwards compared to last few months.

3) They have filed lot of I-485 cases for EB2-IC since May 2011. These are mostly those who did not file in July 2007 (primary + dependent) and only for dependents of primary applicants who filed in July 2007. The firm alone has filed around 250-300 such applications For May-July VB.

4) They at the firm believe movement for September 2011 VB will be equivalent to last month’s VB. They believe dates will just cross PD May 2007.

5) After September 2011 VB, dates will keep on moving by one week until Q1 of FY 2012 and then stall until May 2012.

6) They believe that EB3-ROW-M-P and EB3-I will move more than usual in Sep VB. (I am very surprised at this statement. This is only possible if some visa numbers are left from annual quota for each category)

CM – This is update from our friend. My take for EB2-IC is still at 15 June 2007 for September VB"

[leo07]

This is where the advocacy dollars should help. If we are not capable of getting any legislative help, we must at the least be able to defend existing position through advocacy.

I echo every single word you say here... For a casual person, this movie is a great window into the history of rivalry between different immigrant groups.

[nishant2200]

Thanks Nishanth!

It more or less resonates with the analysis and predictions of many in this forum. Can you post the link to the blog? ( I think I may know it already, just want to confirm)

Welcome Leo.

I was not sure if I should quote the link that is why tried to describe the source so that google search may provide it.

I am putting the link, admins, please remove if should not be pasted.

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/eb1-statistics-for-i-140-approval-and.html

see in the comments section.

[neospeed]

More info regarding E-2 stuff:

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36456

[gcseeker]

Nishant2200

Amen brother...Well said .I too like the peaceful atmosphere of this forum and helping nature of the members.Some truths however need to be spoken loud and clear. Fleecing people in the name of consultancies is not entrepreneurship ,it is called gamemanship and gaming the system using each and every loophole possible.

I can go on a rant about buying pre certified labours ( pre 2006) to current day fake resumes , fake experiences and multiple PERM posting using different consultants.Anywaz it will only make my BP shoot through the roof.

I too wish this does not pass.




Q, perhaps I should have elaborated more.

They already have EB5, as well as EB2 NIW. So this additional program is certainly planning to carve out a new category in EB2, without any increase in existing 140k allocation.

I am the sole earner, in a family of five, supporting parents in India, and wife and young child here. I will complete 10 years in the USA this week. I am certainly not lion hearted enough to be happy with the above proposal. I want the stability and peace of mind for my family.

Another thing, we talk about entrepreneurs here. There is going to be fraud. I personally know one Indian, who on H1B itself, had opened a consulting company, with the usual training, fake interviews, falsifying resumes, taking advantage of students needing a job, or people back home in country who want to come here, has rented apartments with 4 people in one room, and the day he got green card, he plans to leave his job with employer and totally focus on his "entrepreneurship". Last weekend I was in a friend's place and this guy was there, and he was casually joking how stupid the entire system is, and how he makes exorbitant billing rates. Many other topics were talked about which I will not digress here but you get the idea.

This is just an example which I know, there would be many such from various cultures and countries we don't know of. I am personally not vilifying anyone here, not vilifying any job here, it is what it is, I am not here to do advocacy or say what is fraud. Whatever law didn't catch, that's legal, who am I to say it's wrong.

I think that existing EB2 NIW, and EB5 are enough, and they should focus on streamlining them, rather than creating one more potential loop hole.

[leo07]

yes, it's the same blog that we have discussed before on first 10-15 pages of the same thread. The link was quoted before, and it's become much popular since. IMO, we must acknowledge the source and that's what you've done and nothing wrong with it :)

PS: At first I misread "15 June 2007 for September VB" as your position. Wanted to ask you what made you upgrade from last week's "final". But, now that I see you are still on your 'final position', there's no need for more questions:)

[gcseeker]

Q

This is what motivates me to read your forum.The large hearted nature of this group. I have personally volunteered for Udavum karangal in the past and they do amazing work. All of the money contributions and tax stuff is documented on their site and anybody who is interested can definetly see for themselves.

Also they often conduct cultural programs in various cities and they often need volunteers on the weekends. These shows have tickets which do generate a fair amount of money which is spent 100% on the schools they run and other activities.I hope some of the members will check out sulekha or local websites and will find time in the future to volunteer with them.




Friends,

This month we made yet another small donation. ($85 Sankara Netralaya). This will cover one free cataract surgery for a needy person.

Some of the site users asked us if THIS SITE needed donations. Forunately we don't. But if you want to donate, then please donate to our Charity of the Month. (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?135-Sankara-Netralaya&p=6057#post6057)

You can find individual credits listed at the top of the donations thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=6058#post6058).

p.s. - Also for next month we have two suggestions so far. 1) Hrudaya (http://hrudaya.com/) 2) Udavum Karangal (Helping Hands) (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?132-Udavum-Karangal-(Helping-Hands)). We can select one of these as our Charity of Month for next month (or any other if there are more suggestions). So please feel free to add more suggestions to the different thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=6058#post6058) - as long as the charity has a registered US based non-profit front to accept donations in US. I will add a poll to select one of these charities after 10th of this month.

[nishant2200]

Yes, I am still sticking to 1st June 2007 :)

Man I wish I was born earlier, (all laws of physics not holding same, else bieber had a valid point, it wouldn't make a difference then :D )


yes, it's the same blog that we have discussed before on first 10-15 pages of the same thread. The link was quoted before, and it's become much popular since. IMO, we must acknowledge the source and that's what you've done and nothing wrong with it :)

PS: At first I misread "15 June 2007 for September VB" as your position. Wanted to ask you what made you upgrade from last week's "final". But, now that I see you are still on your 'final position', there's no need for more questions:)

[rahil1]

Yes, I am still sticking to 1st June 2007 :)

Man I wish I was born earlier, (all laws of physics not holding same, else bieber had a valid point, it wouldn't make a difference then :D )

One thing that I find amazing abt this forum is taht everything one is so nice. No name calling .. no ranting... and last but not the least great calculations and predictions

[soggadu]

Yes, I am still sticking to 1st June 2007 :)

Man I wish I was born earlier, (all laws of physics not holding same, else bieber had a valid point, it wouldn't make a difference then :D )

arey...if u were born earlier...it would have been a longer wait N bhai...

[qesehmk]

Generally people are of helping nature. Its the environment that makes good or bad things come out. So that's why we need to maitain the right spirit on this forum.
As per helping hands ... thanks for the info. Soggadu also suggested the same charity I believe.


Q

This is what motivates me to read your forum.The large hearted nature of this group. I have personally volunteered for Udavum karangal in the past and they do amazing work. All of the money contributions and tax stuff is documented on their site and anybody who is interested can definetly see for themselves.

Also they often conduct cultural programs in various cities and they often need volunteers on the weekends. These shows have tickets which do generate a fair amount of money which is spent 100% on the schools they run and other activities.I hope some of the members will check out sulekha or local websites and will find time in the future to volunteer with them.

[leo07]

Let's list everyone's prediction for Sept VB and let us all give a * for the winner

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
Qesehmk--------July 1st
Spec------------?
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.

any one else to add their names to the list of predictions?


Yes, I am still sticking to 1st June 2007 :)

Man I wish I was born earlier, (all laws of physics not holding same, else bieber had a valid point, it wouldn't make a difference then :D )

[rahil1]

Let's list everyone's prediction for Sept VB and let us all give a * for the winner

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
Qesehmk--------July 1st
Spec------------?
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 May 2007

any one else to add their names to the list of predictions?

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
Qesehmk--------July 1st
Spec------------?
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007

[neospeed]

Let's list everyone's prediction for Sept VB and let us all give a * for the winner

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
Qesehmk--------July 1st
Spec------------?
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.

any one else to add their names to the list of predictions?

I think Q prediction was July 1st week, July 8th ?

[Spectator]

Nishanth-------1st June 2007
TeddyK---------15th May to 15th June??
Qesehmk--------July 1st
Spec------------22nd May to 22nd June 2007 (I hope i.e. 2-4k for September VB)
Leo07-----------08th June 2007 to 1st August 2007.
CM( from us-non-immigrant-blogspot)---------15th June 2007.
Rahil----------08 June 2007