EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[leo07]

When renewing my passport I have filled in my current US address at that time. That was 4 years ago and did not have any problems for the address.

Thank you all for the advice.
One more question on it.

In the application form which address shall I fill for Address to be Printed in Passport?
Will it be my Indian home address or the current US Address?
Pertaining to the same section, what will be the Other Address?
I am confused about the address issue.

Appreciate all your help.

Deb

[nishant2200]

In few hours, I will be in office. I have my passport app saved as pdf. I will see n let u know. I wud like to say US address for current n India for permanent. Will confirm.


Thank you all for the advice.
One more question on it.

In the application form which address shall I fill for Address to be Printed in Passport?
Will it be my Indian home address or the current US Address?
Pertaining to the same section, what will be the Other Address?
I am confused about the address issue.

Appreciate all your help.

Deb

[veni001]

Friends,
The following is the breakdown i derived after going through various data sources for Q1&Q2

I140 Denials(Average EB1-2-3)

FY2011(Q1+Q2)
Completions = 35,3331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (~13%)

If we take EB1 denial rate as 25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at 10% and EB3 will be at 5%.

AOS(485) Breakdown

EB1 = 10,692 (including ROW-M-P EB2 NIW)
EB2ROWMP = 13,645
EB2I = 2,800
EB2C = 2,000
EB3 = 12,563
EB4 = 4,690
EB5 = 419
Total AOS approvals = 46,812
USCIS Data shows 45,981 (diff =1.8% )

CP Breakdown(Based on AOS Vs CP %)

EB1 = 1,253
EB2 = 599
EB3 = 3,969
EB4 = 1,735
EB5 = 978
Total CP approvals = 8,533
Total EB Usage(Q1+Q2) = AOS+CP = 55,345

I will try to post my calculations over the weekend, in the mean time if this breakdown doesn't make any sense, rip it apart!

[Academic]

I would greatly appreciate any feedback on the following issue. My PD is March 19 2007 and my date will be current beginning August 1st. I applied for my advance parole document in early May (almost 80 days)and have not received it to date. Would it reasonable to assume that USCIS will process my greencard application and will simply cancel my AP application? Also, I have only been fingerprinted once. The fingerpriting took place when I applied for my first EAD card in the fall of 2007. Do I need to contact USCIS about getting the fingerprinting updated? Will not doing so hold up my the processing of my green card application? Is it unusal for people to not get a new fingerprinting appointment with every EAD/AP renewal?

[new2gc]

Thank you all for the advice.
One more question on it.

In the application form which address shall I fill for Address to be Printed in Passport?
Will it be my Indian home address or the current US Address?
Pertaining to the same section, what will be the Other Address?
I am confused about the address issue.

Appreciate all your help.

Deb

We should mention Indian Address...(I have done the same last year).

[kd2008]

New members are so very welcome to this wonderful forum. Everybody here looks to your active participation and contribution. Please keep the thread postings relevant to the topic. If you need to ask questions not related to the thread, please start a new thread. It helps to lessen the load on our moderators who work on a voluntary basis. Thank you for your cooperation.

[superdesi2100]

I was just checking Trackitt approvals for EB2 India -

May 2011 approvals - 154

June 2011 approvals - 264

July 2011 approvals so far - 257

[grnwtg]

We should mention Indian Address...(I have done the same last year).

I vaguely remember that we need to give two addresses. Permanent is Passport address and for communication ( Dont remember, How its named in the application form) its US address.
Coming to Notary, in previous occasions i got free notary done at wachovia, citi and bank of america ( probably some branches act tough on it). I still remember doing notary to around 50 documents for my wife's Master's and Citi bank guy signed it on every document and stamped it freely( if you have any account with them). I will be disappointed to pay for notary when we are getting less then 2% of interest rates from Banks.

[Monica12]

New members are so very welcome to this wonderful forum. Everybody here looks to your active participation and contribution. Please keep the thread postings relevant to the topic. If you need to ask questions not related to the thread, please start a new thread. It helps to lessen the load on our moderators who work on a voluntary basis. Thank you for your cooperation.
I agree with kd..Please open a new thread for questions not related to this thread....
But Academic, I will quickly try since you asked...
First welcome to the forum... I dont know if they will just approve GC or the AP first.
but it's not unusual for them to approve GC with just one set of FP ...there are many cases on Trackitt where GC were approved where the applicants were FP just once in 2007 (What I noticed though was that most of these people never applied again for AP/ EAD renewal)
I on the other hand, have got a FP notice every year when I applied for AP renewal..Good luck in August :)

[grnwtg]

So did we already calculated percentage of indian/china folks in EB1 category rejected? . If it is row, most likely it might come to eb2 affected next year quota but if they are India/china they come to eb2 but stand in queue.


Friends,
The following is the breakdown i derived after going through various data sources for Q1&Q2

I140 Denials(Average EB1-2-3)

FY2011(Q1+Q2)
Completions = 35,3331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (~13%)

If we take EB1 denial rate as 25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at 10% and EB3 will be at 5%.

AOS(485) Breakdown

EB1 = 10,692 (including ROW-M-P EB2 NIW)
EB2ROWMP = 13,645
EB2I = 2,800
EB2C = 2,000
EB3 = 12,563
EB4 = 4,690
EB5 = 419
Total AOS approvals = 46,812
USCIS Data shows 45,981 (diff =1.8% )

CP Breakdown(Based on AOS Vs CP %)

EB1 = 1,253
EB2 = 599
EB3 = 3,969
EB4 = 1,735
EB5 = 978
Total CP approvals = 8,533
Total EB Usage(Q1+Q2) = AOS+CP = 55,345

I will try to post my calculations over the weekend, in the mean time if this breakdown doesn't make any sense, rip it apart!

[harick]

I agree wiht Leo and Nishant, the current address would be your US address and and Permanent/other addres would be your India address. That is what I filled in my application and I have US address in my new passport.


When renewing my passport I have filled in my current US address at that time. That was 4 years ago and did not have any problems for the address.


In few hours, I will be in office. I have my passport app saved as pdf. I will see n let u know. I wud like to say US address for current n India for permanent. Will confirm.

[sandeep11]

Thank you all for the advice.
One more question on it.

In the application form which address shall I fill for Address to be Printed in Passport?
Will it be my Indian home address or the current US Address?
Pertaining to the same section, what will be the Other Address?
I am confused about the address issue.

Appreciate all your help.

Deb


Hope this helps. I have used this for my renewal with no issues.

http://www.immihelp.com/nri/indianpassport/online-application-guide.html

[nishant2200]

I agree wiht Leo and Nishant, the current address would be your US address and and Permanent/other addres would be your India address. That is what I filled in my application and I have US address in my new passport.

confirmed.

permanent address: I put India

Other address: I put USA

[nishant2200]

Hope this helps. I have used this for my renewal with no issues.

http://www.immihelp.com/nri/indianpassport/online-application-guide.html

actually I remember now, I too used this same website :) thanks sandeep

[veni001]

So did we already calculated percentage of indian/china folks in EB1 category rejected? . If it is row, most likely it might come to eb2 affected next year quota but if they are India/china they come to eb2 but stand in queue.

grnwtg,
EB1ROWMP Vs EB1IC are 2/3:1/3, if we translate EB1-i140 denials in the same ratio then it is 1000 and 500.

[valuablehurdle]

It is my earnest request to please stick to the topic. 'Passports' etc can be easily discussed in aother thread. If you have questions related to any other topic, open a new thread. This defeats the purpose of this valuable thread altogether and causes distractions.

I am pretty sure all your questions would be answered.

[leo07]

Veni,

Thanks for the numbers. Shouldn't the entire/complete number be of consequence for us at this point?.(for this year, not for next years sofad)
How would splitting the EB1 denials help? This question is out of curiosity to understand, not being smart pants here:)

Best!

PS:btw, I agree with moving the misc items to a different thread. I have contributed to those items as felt appropriate to answer the question first:)


grnwtg,
EB1ROWMP Vs EB1IC are 2/3:1/3, if we translate EB1-i140 denials in the same ratio then it is 1000 and 500.

[indiaeb2]

Hi Spec/ Q - What is the expected moment sepetember moment. will my PD AUg6th07 be current or atleast do you guys see in 1 or 2nd Q of 2012. your thoughts. Thanks

[soggadu]

http://wws.princeton.edu/research/pwreports_f09/591d_2010.pdf just in case we need a break from regular activities...

indiaeb2... Q is in the Q to get his GC next month, Spec is speculating on something important... in the mean while, i can answer your question...

Currently the rumour/word on the street is that we have 7K visa numbers available for EB category. So out of 7K we can expect around >4K to be spilled over or used for EB2 I/C. If you look at the header of this thread, you can play a small math game... spec has a wonderful table suggesting number of visas needed for movement ahead. So you can get an idea min 4K max 7K...

Scenario 2: As we are reaching end of backlog, CO (not computer operator) can go for BTM which will be for an year or so and move back dates to current levels, or else SFM which mean moving in bits and pieces but in forward direction... No real formula or algorithm to say what will happen, prediction itself is a pre addiction which everybody wants to know and tell...but not that easy in this situation...my 2 cents have either irritated you or calmed you down...but this is reality... no sure shot number in this game for now... adios...

update: It seems all the 7k is for us and only us(EB2 I/C)... so look for atleast 01 Aug

[soggadu]

It is my earnest request to please stick to the topic. 'Passports' etc can be easily discussed in aother thread. If you have questions related to any other topic, open a new thread. This defeats the purpose of this valuable thread altogether and causes distractions.

I am pretty sure all your questions would be answered.

Hurdle bhai... This is a good point... but to make this happen we all have to promise that we visit those threads too and make valuable contributions without any hurdles than just taking these posts off our way in this thread... agree? disagree? or like my wife does agree to disagree? :-) ...live and let live...

[indiaeb2]

Thanks Soggadu for your views. I keep asking this coz i am really stuck with my desi firm and wanted EAD to move out of him and work. I find jobs but he get the money. Atleast i hope by end of FY2012 i can file my i485 for my EAD.

[iamdeb]

confirmed.

permanent address: I put India

Other address: I put USA

Thanks for the confirmation.
As always I received the best possible answers here.

Cheers to this forum!

Deb

[qblogfan]

Based on my understanding, Mr.Co said 7k will be applied to EB2 China/India.

He said the number is slightly lower than the demand left in September.

I read the original posts and this is my understanding.


http://wws.princeton.edu/research/pwreports_f09/591d_2010.pdf just in case we need a break from regular activities...

indiaeb2... Q is in the Q to get his GC next month, Spec is speculating on something important... in the mean while, i can answer your question...

Currently the rumour/word on the street is that we have 7K visa numbers available for EB category. So out of 7K we can expect around >4K to be spilled over or used for EB2 I/C. If you look at the header of this thread, you can play a small math game... spec has a wonderful table suggesting number of visas needed for movement ahead. So you can get an idea min 4K max 7K...

Scenario 2: As we are reaching end of backlog, CO (not computer operator) can go for BTM which will be for an year or so and move back dates to current levels, or else SFM which mean moving in bits and pieces but in forward direction... No real formula or algorithm to say what will happen, prediction itself is a pre addiction which everybody wants to know and tell...but not that easy in this situation...my 2 cents have either irritated you or calmed you down...but this is reality... no sure shot number in this game for now... adios...

[valuablehurdle]

Hurdle bhai... This is a good point... but to make this happen we all have to promise that we visit those threads too and make valuable contributions without any hurdles than just taking these posts off our way in this thread... agree? disagree? or like my wife does agree to disagree? :-) ...live and let live...

Agreed!! I will contribute in whatever way I can in the other threads.

[soggadu]

Thanks Soggadu for your views. I keep asking this coz i am really stuck with my desi firm and wanted EAD to move out of him and work. I find jobs but he get the money. Atleast i hope by end of FY2012 i can file my i485 for my EAD.

Your story is same as most of the people here bud...please hang in there.... sabr ka phal GC hota hein meere dost...

[soggadu]

Based on my understanding, Mr.Co said 7k will be applied to EB2 China/India.

He said the number is slightly lower than the demand left in September.

I read the original posts and this is my understanding.

Jr.Q bhai(bro)...Awesome, we would be looking at least Aug 01 2007 in Sep then... don't know how to bless in Chinese...but b blessed for all the info you bring to us....

[indiaeb2]

cmon Soggadu. please add 6 more days and says Aug07 in sep.. atleast i will remember this post and enjoy my weekend.

[Spectator]

Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

Av.
EB2-I ------- When
SOFAD ------- Current
16,000 ------ Never
17,000 ------ FY2096
18,000 ------ FY2054
19,000 ------ FY2040
20,000 ------ FY2033
21,000 ------ FY2028
22,000 ------ FY2026
23,000 ------ FY2024
24,000 ------ FY2022
25,000 ------ FY2021
26,000 ------ FY2020
27,000 ------ FY2019
28,000 ------ FY2019
29,000 ------ FY2018
30,000 ------ FY2018
31,000 ------ FY2017
32,000 ------ FY2017
33,000 ------ FY2016
34,000 ------ FY2016
35,000 ------ FY2016

Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.

[soggadu]

cmon Soggadu. please add 6 more days and says Aug07 in sep.. atleast i will remember this post and enjoy my weekend.

i added "atleast" .... think about it...if they reach Aug 01 by next month...where wud they go in oct...tadaaaaaa... > Aug 06...

[soggadu]

Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

Av.
EB2-I ------- When
SOFAD ------- Current
16,000 ------ Never
17,000 ------ FY2096
18,000 ------ FY2054
19,000 ------ FY2040
20,000 ------ FY2033
21,000 ------ FY2028
22,000 ------ FY2026
23,000 ------ FY2024
24,000 ------ FY2022
25,000 ------ FY2021
26,000 ------ FY2020
27,000 ------ FY2019
28,000 ------ FY2019
29,000 ------ FY2018
30,000 ------ FY2018
31,000 ------ FY2017
32,000 ------ FY2017
33,000 ------ FY2016
34,000 ------ FY2016
35,000 ------ FY2016

Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade.

You are so very amazing...thanks a ton for these numbers...

[leo07]

Since you already have numbers in Excel sheet, you can add one more column that indicates , when a given EB2I PD could get out of the system, keeping the 16k intake/year constant.
It's averaging about 4.5 years now, but that page would help lot of people.

Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

Av.
EB2-I ------- When
SOFAD ------- Current
16,000 ------ Never
17,000 ------ FY2096
18,000 ------ FY2054
19,000 ------ FY2040
20,000 ------ FY2033
21,000 ------ FY2028
22,000 ------ FY2026
23,000 ------ FY2024
24,000 ------ FY2022
25,000 ------ FY2021
26,000 ------ FY2020
27,000 ------ FY2019
28,000 ------ FY2019
29,000 ------ FY2018
30,000 ------ FY2018
31,000 ------ FY2017
32,000 ------ FY2017
33,000 ------ FY2016
34,000 ------ FY2016
35,000 ------ FY2016

Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.

[BamBam]

I did my renewal with US Address for both current and permanent


In few hours, I will be in office. I have my passport app saved as pdf. I will see n let u know. I wud like to say US address for current n India for permanent. Will confirm.

[qblogfan]

It is very interesting analysis.

Great work!


Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

Av.
EB2-I ------- When
SOFAD ------- Current
16,000 ------ Never
17,000 ------ FY2096
18,000 ------ FY2054
19,000 ------ FY2040
20,000 ------ FY2033
21,000 ------ FY2028
22,000 ------ FY2026
23,000 ------ FY2024
24,000 ------ FY2022
25,000 ------ FY2021
26,000 ------ FY2020
27,000 ------ FY2019
28,000 ------ FY2019
29,000 ------ FY2018
30,000 ------ FY2018
31,000 ------ FY2017
32,000 ------ FY2017
33,000 ------ FY2016
34,000 ------ FY2016
35,000 ------ FY2016

Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.

[BamBam]

Wow! Great work. I wonder what it would be for EB3.....


Out of interest, I plugged some figures in to give me a very rough idea.

It is based on the current backlog being fully cleared and an (what I think is a very conservative) estimate of I-1485 waiting to be filed, based on :

a) only 80% of PERM make it to I-485 stage
b) 60:40 split for EB2:EB3
c) 2.1 I-485 per I-140
d) Continuing demand from FY2010 onwards is only at FY2009 levels (the lowest seen to date = 16,000 per year for EB2-I).

Going in to FY2012, that would be about 84k I 485 waiting to be adjudicated, including PWMB.

As each year passes, more demand from the current year is being added ie. by the end of FY2011, the number needed to become TRULY Current is the backlog from August 2007 to the end of FY2011.

Each year reduces the number by the amount of SOFAD to India, but it increases by the new year's demand EB2-I at the same time. e.g. 25,000 EB2-I SOFAD and 16,000 new EB2-I demand reduces the real EB2-I backlog by only a net 9,000.

The SOFAD figure below is for India alone and represents the average amount EB2-I receives over the years. It is based on a demand of 16,000 a year.

EB2-I Demand -- 16,000

Av.
EB2-I ------- When
SOFAD ------- Current
16,000 ------ Never
17,000 ------ FY2096
18,000 ------ FY2054
19,000 ------ FY2040
20,000 ------ FY2033
21,000 ------ FY2028
22,000 ------ FY2026
23,000 ------ FY2024
24,000 ------ FY2022
25,000 ------ FY2021
26,000 ------ FY2020
27,000 ------ FY2019
28,000 ------ FY2019
29,000 ------ FY2018
30,000 ------ FY2018
31,000 ------ FY2017
32,000 ------ FY2017
33,000 ------ FY2016
34,000 ------ FY2016
35,000 ------ FY2016

Although EB2-C demand drops just below the 7% allocation, they almost certainly can't become Current until the same time as EB2-I, because the numbers accumulated between August 2007 and the end of FY2011 (around 12k) cannot be cleared fast enough.

You don't need to agree exactly with the assumptions, but it is obvious it is not going to happen in the next couple of years.

I have to conclude that EB3 will not be seeing any regular spillover soon, possibly not in this decade, unless EB2-I demand starts to fall dramatically. There does not seem to be evidence that this is happening to date.

[srimurthy]

great work Spec. I am going to be current in 2015, so let me take a nap. ;-)

[nishant2200]

http://wws.princeton.edu/research/pwreports_f09/591d_2010.pdf just in case we need a break from regular activities...



dude, I am amazed. don't know what to say, ppl writing research papers about us . But it is really interesting find. amzing, truly.

[soggadu]

dude, I am amazed. don't know what to say, ppl writing research papers about us . But it is really interesting find. amzing, truly.

yes...thanks to sum guy on trackitt... this shows how badly US needs to amend the current immigration laws...

[soggadu]

great work Spec. I am going to be current in 2015, so let me take a nap. ;-)

nap wont work murthy garu.... go into hibernation....

[nishant2200]

Based on my understanding, Mr.Co said 7k will be applied to EB2 China/India.

He said the number is slightly lower than the demand left in September.

I read the original posts and this is my understanding.

feel like crying, banging my head. man if only the number was not slightly lower than the demand left, but a bit higher, if only FB had given something. or maybe just being within reach of certain percentage is enough for CO to go for a BTM. Or maybe he will be cautious and let this new intake (PWMBs, dependents, porting, few pre-adj which maybe/will be left out in FY 2011) play its course out for the first 6 months of FY 2012.

[srimurthy]

nap wont work murthy garu.... go into hibernation....

nap because I need to wake up and keep reading Q's blog.

[bieber]

Spec

do you mind sharing your exisintg calculations for expected 485 demand in fy2008,fy2009,fy2010,fy2011

[Pdmar08]

I have heard rumors that CO refers to this blog to validate his numbers...sort of peer review ;)


dude, I am amazed. don't know what to say, ppl writing research papers about us . But it is really interesting find. amzing, truly.

[Pdmar08]

Aur isi prakar Qblog ka dohra shatak poora hua..bahut badhiya ballebaji
Xlation-This is it...Qblog completes a fine double ton.

[soggadufan]

i added "atleast" .... think about it...if they reach Aug 01 by next month...where wud they go in oct...tadaaaaaa... > Aug 06...

I have been following this thread from a month, this is great place with nice people. Thanks to Q for setting up such a nice website. I am ready to contribute if this website need any kind of financial support.

I always enjoy soggadu posts. YOU ROCK man. many times I wonder how you could be that spontaneous. you keep rocking... char din ki jandagi muskuraanaa..

[soggadu]

I have been following this thread from a month, this is great place with nice people. Thanks to Q for setting up such a nice website. I am ready to contribute if this website need any kind of financial support.

I always enjoy soggadu posts. YOU ROCK man. many times I wonder how you could be that spontaneous. you keep rocking... char din ki jandagi muskuraanaa..

thank you dost...i am flattered... dont know what to say dude (bhagwan please let it be a "she"....)

[Monica12]

I have been following this thread from a month, this is great place with nice people. Thanks to Q for setting up such a nice website. I am ready to contribute if this website need any kind of financial support.

I always enjoy soggadu posts. YOU ROCK man. many times I wonder how you could be that spontaneous. you keep rocking... char din ki jandagi muskuraanaa..

OMG! Soggadu... buddy !!! I'm so glad .... YIPPPPPPEEEEEE!!!!!!!

[Monica12]

thank you dost...i am flattered... Dont know what to say dude (bhagwan please let it be a "she"....)
lol!!!!!!!!

[soggadufan]

thank you dost...i am flattered... dont know what to say dude (bhagwan please let it be a "she"....)

hahahaha. "he" not "she"

[BamBam]

My dear friends,

Thanks for everything that you do. Thanks for keeping me sane for the last couple of months. Freedom Express has arrived for me today.

My details:

TSC
PD:15 Feb 2007
EB2I
I-485 Filed on : 11 July 2007
I-485 Receipt Date: 10 Sept 2007

I buckled under pressure and opened an SR on 18 July 2011 10am. I did not talk to L2, actually I did not even try or ask for L2 officer.

Decision Email and SMS: 18 July 2011 9:50pm CST
Post Decision Email and SMS: 20 July 2011 10:15pm CST
Welcome Notice for spouse (derivative): 22 July 2011

Green Cards for both of us: 22 July 2011

Thanks again for everything. I accidentally stumbled upon this site a couple of months back. I forgot to bookmark. Searched in google for sometime before I entered names of the Gurus that I could remember. Reading all the pages ever since. I find the discussions on this site very engaging and informative. And I love the tone of the discussions.

I will still continue to read (now it has become an habit).

All the best for you all. Hope to see you all on board the Freedom Express soon!!! ;:D:cool:

[soggadu]

hahahaha. "he" not "she"

damn itt.... kya kami thi meere laddu mein (last time prashad chadaya tha na)... why god why...

Jokes apart...thanks for your appreciation....have fun...this is a nice forum... people tolerate me... have any questions, shoot them... fab 4 r always there for us...

[soggadu]

My dear friends,

Thanks for everything that you do. Thanks for keeping me sane for the last couple of months. Freedom Express has arrived for me today.

My details:

TSC
PD:15 Feb 2007
EB2I
I-485 Filed on : 11 July 2007
I-485 Receipt Date: 10 Sept 2007

I buckled under pressure and opened an SR on 18 July 2011 10am. I did not talk to L2, actually I did not even try or ask for L2 officer.

Decision Email and SMS: 18 July 2011 9:50pm CST
Post Decision Email and SMS: 20 July 2011 10:15pm CST
Welcome Notice for spouse (derivative): 22 July 2011

Green Cards for both of us: 22 July 2011

Thanks again for everything. I accidentally stumbled upon this site a couple of months back. I forgot to bookmark. Searched in google for sometime before I entered names of the Gurus that I could remember. Reading all the pages ever since. I find the discussions on this site very engaging and informative. And I love the tone of the discussions.

I will still continue to read (now it has become an habit).

All the best for you all. Hope to see you all on board the Freedom Express soon!!! ;:D:cool:

Bam bam bholeeeeeeeeee... ho gaye GC waleeeeeeeeeeee.... congrats dude... hang around... dont leave...we need ur experience...

[Monica12]

My dear friends,

Thanks for everything that you do. Thanks for keeping me sane for the last couple of months. Freedom Express has arrived for me today.

My details:

TSC
PD:15 Feb 2007
EB2I
I-485 Filed on : 11 July 2007
I-485 Receipt Date: 10 Sept 2007

I buckled under pressure and opened an SR on 18 July 2011 10am. I did not talk to L2, actually I did not even try or ask for L2 officer.

Decision Email and SMS: 18 July 2011 9:50pm CST
Post Decision Email and SMS: 20 July 2011 10:15pm CST
Welcome Notice for spouse (derivative): 22 July 2011

Green Cards for both of us: 22 July 2011

Thanks again for everything. I accidentally stumbled upon this site a couple of months back. I forgot to bookmark. Searched in google for sometime before I entered names of the Gurus that I could remember. Reading all the pages ever since. I find the discussions on this site very engaging and informative. And I love the tone of the discussions.

I will still continue to read (now it has become an habit).

All the best for you all. Hope to see you all on board the Freedom Express soon!!! ;:D:cool:
Congrats bam bam and Amen to that.:)
Friends... I just noticed...200 pages of this incredible thread today. WOW !
A big thank you to the FAB 4 : Q,V, S, T and others. Also, a big thank you to the incredible friends I have made here :)

[Spectator]

Spec

do you mind sharing your exisintg calculations for expected 485 demand in fy2008,fy2009,fy2010,fy2011bieber,

I think everyone uses different assumptions. On the ones I gave above, the figures of I-485 for each PD year were:

2007 still to file - 12,559
2008 - 23,359
2009 - 16,130
2010 - 16,134 (assumed that 5,000 PERM were Porting for previous PDs, although I haven't added those back anywhere - I probably should have done, since this leads to an underestimate)
2011 onwards - 16,000

On those assumptions, the total PERM number pretty much became the EB2 I-485 number, due to a quirk in the % used.

Please understand, the table is just a quick and dirty attempt to understand the timelines - don't over analyze it! For instance, it doesn't try to include any porting numbers.

I can plug in a different set of assumptions if you provide them:

i) PERM to I-140 approval rate (including any primary I-485 denial rate) i.e. 80% if you think 20% of PERM never make it to the primary's I-485 approval)
ii) No of I-485 per I-140 e.g. 2.1
iii) % EB2 e.g, 60%

[Spectator]

Aur isi prakar Qblog ka dohra shatak poora hua..bahut badhiya ballebaji
Xlation-This is it...Qblog completes a fine double ton.Pdmar08,

I thought you were referring to Kevin Pietersen for a moment.

Bloody fine knock! (as the English might say)

Can the Little Master respond?

[veni001]

Veni,

Thanks for the numbers. Shouldn't the entire/complete number be of consequence for us at this point?.(for this year, not for next years sofad)
How would splitting the EB1 denials help? This question is out of curiosity to understand, not being smart pants here:)

Best!

PS:btw, I agree with moving the misc items to a different thread. I have contributed to those items as felt appropriate to answer the question first:)

leo07,
Our intention is to figure out how USCIS is distributing EB-VISAs based on the demand/completions and other factors. We may not be able to get exact picture but may get close to reality.
This way we can predict future allocations based on various data sources available now, instead of guessing.

EB1 Denials: Most of the EB1ROWMP denials will apply, if not already, in EB2. (In our calculations we are already accounting thins number based on PERM data.)

Again the main intent is not just for the month/quarter/year spillover calculations but, the overall picture so that it will be easy for us to help our future EB community.

[bieber]

bieber,

I think everyone uses different assumptions. On the ones I gave above, the figures of I-485 for each PD year were:

2007 still to file - 12,559
2008 - 23,359
2009 - 16,130
2010 - 16,134 (assumed that 5,000 PERM were Porting for previous PDs, although I haven't added those back anywhere - I probably should have done, since this leads to an underestimate)
2011 onwards - 16,000

On those assumptions, the total PERM number pretty much became the EB2 I-485 number, due to a quirk in the % used.

Please understand, the table is just a quick and dirty attempt to understand the timelines - don't over analyze it!

I can plug in a different set of assumptions if you provide them:

i) PERM to I-140 approval rate (including any primary I-485 denial rate) i.e. 80% if you think 20% of PERM never make it to the primary's I-485 approval)
ii) No of I-485 per I-140 e.g. 2.1
iii) % EB2 e.g, 60%

Spec, thanks :)

I will ask more questions later eventhough I remember your ealier calculation for EB2IC for CY2007 is 16k, could you please verify if it still stands true (not including any of the inventory)

[Spectator]

Spec, thanks :)

I will ask more questions later eventhough I remember your ealier calculation for EB2IC for CY2007 is 16k, could you please verify if it still stands true (not including any of the inventory)bieber,

Close enough.

Using those assumptions for both I & C it comes out as 15,471. China's conversion rate is a little better, so the figure for both combined is a bit over 16k.

I'm away for a few days starting tomorrow, so no answers over the weekend.

[leo07]

He said the number is slightly lower than the demand left in September.

I read the original posts and this is my understanding.

To me this statement translates to :July 15th 2007 to August 1st 2007 movement in September VB.

fwiw, unlike TeddyK, Spec, Q, Veni and few others, I have built-in bias, no hiding there:)

btw, I just noticed we reached 200 pages:)

[yesman]

Hi Guys, I have been following this thread for a while. Thanks for all the great work people are doing here. Like many others, I was hoping for significant movement in the Aug VB but was disappointed. I've been working for my current employer for over 5 1/2 years now and would really like a change. But my PD is April 4 2008. I have a couple of questions for the forum:

- What are the chances of my PD becoming current next year?
- How long will it take for a new employer to start a new GC and get me to the same stage by the time my PD is current?
- This part is a little subjective, but if you were me would you stick with the same employer or move?

Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.

[yesman]

Forgot to mention that my GC is filed under EB2 India with a PD of 04/04/2008.


Hi Guys, I have been following this thread for a while. Thanks for all the great work people are doing here. Like many others, I was hoping for significant movement in the Aug VB but was disappointed. I've been working for my current employer for over 5 1/2 years now and would really like a change. But my PD is April 4 2008. I have a couple of questions for the forum:

- What are the chances of my PD becoming current next year?
- How long will it take for a new employer to start a new GC and get me to the same stage by the time my PD is current?
- This part is a little subjective, but if you were me would you stick with the same employer or move?

Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.

[gcseeker]

Yesman welcome to the forum.In general people are being pointed to read the whole thread to improve their own understanding and reduce their anxiety.However let me offer my thoughts ,do take them with a pinch of salt.They are nowhere close to the insight the fab4 or gang of 4 ( too much deficit news on my mind :) ) might be able to provide.

1.Depending on movements in Sep and Oct bulletin your PD has a very good chance of becoming current by the later half of next year ( May 2012) .If an miracle happens and CO decides to fill pipeline it could be as soon as Jan 2012 or Dec 2011 .I would not bet the farm on it being before that.

2.New employer will usually take six months to get the advertisements done for the LC stage and depending on the approval times for PERM which are ranging from two months to 4 months you might be back in line by Oct 2012 if you change your job right now and no queries actually follow through on the recapture of PD.

3.I would atleast stick untill Oct VB to notice movement to make an decision..

P.S By the way my PD is in Nov 2007 and am stuck in a similar quandry...though being borderline am more confused and pulled in both directions .Heart says CO will fill the pipeline by Oct.Mind firmly says ...no way too good to be true and gates will close by August.

:) I noticed some fan posts for LOTR..here goes..Sep VB is the gates of Mordor for me.....

Boromir: One does not simply walk past the Sep VB . Its black gates are guarded by the bumbling staff of the mumbai consulate. There is evil there that does not print even one date properly . The great eye (CO) is ever watchful. It is a barren excel sheet , riddled with mistypes, html errors, and procedural delays. Many a man and woman had to go to the ER unable to bear this torture. Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly.




Forgot to mention that my GC is filed under EB2 India with a PD of 04/04/2008.

[leo07]

Veni001, Thanks for the explanation!


leo07,
Our intention is to figure out how USCIS is distributing EB-VISAs based on the demand/completions and other factors. We may not be able to get exact picture but may get close to reality.
This way we can predict future allocations based on various data sources available now, instead of guessing.

EB1 Denials: Most of the EB1ROWMP denials will apply, if not already, in EB2. (In our calculations we are already accounting thins number based on PERM data.)

Again the main intent is not just for the month/quarter/year spillover calculations but, the overall picture so that it will be easy for us to help our future EB community.

[yesman]

gcseeker, Thanks for providing your take on my situation. The pain of going through this process with another employer is certainly something I'm not looking forward to. Although, my career could certainly use the change. Oct 2012 seems like it would be cutting it too close plus the fear of additional queries is always there. I decided to ask just so that that I can get different perspectives on the situation.

OTOH, I'm not sure when we get over all pre-adjudicated cases, if my PD would become current as part of next year's overflow (if it's the same amount as this year). I've read predictions where they say it'll move to Q1 2008 as part of next year's overflow. That's cutting it too close for me and dangerously close to slipping to 2013.

Your case seems more of no brainer though. I know you didn't ask for my opinion, but here it is anyway.. If I were you, I'd wait :) Good luck with your GC!


Yesman welcome to the forum.In general people are being pointed to read the whole thread to improve their own understanding and reduce their anxiety.However let me offer my thoughts ,do take them with a pinch of salt.They are nowhere close to the insight the fab4 or gang of 4 ( too much deficit news on my mind :) ) might be able to provide.

1.Depending on movements in Sep and Oct bulletin your PD has a very good chance of becoming current by the later half of next year ( May 2012) .If an miracle happens and CO decides to fill pipeline it could be as soon as Jan 2012 or Dec 2011 .I would not bet the farm on it being before that.

2.New employer will usually take six months to get the advertisements done for the LC stage and depending on the approval times for PERM which are ranging from two months to 4 months you might be back in line by Oct 2012 if you change your job right now and no queries actually follow through on the recapture of PD.

3.I would atleast stick untill Oct VB to notice movement to make an decision..

P.S By the way my PD is in Nov 2007 and am stuck in a similar quandry...though being borderline am more confused and pulled in both directions .Heart says CO will fill the pipeline by Oct.Mind firmly says ...no way too good to be true and gates will close by August.

:) I noticed some fan posts for LOTR..here goes..Sep VB is the gates of Mordor for me.....

Boromir: One does not simply walk past the Sep VB . Its black gates are guarded by the bumbling staff of the mumbai consulate. There is evil there that does not print even one date properly . The great eye (CO) is ever watchful. It is a barren excel sheet , riddled with mistypes, html errors, and procedural delays. Many a man and woman had to go to the ER unable to bear this torture. Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly.

[Spectator]

Spec ... are you aware Little MAster is "Sunil Gavaskar" not "Tendulkar".Are you sure? It made me check.

I am happy to acknowledge that "Sunny" may have been the original Master, although I have never heard him referred to in that way. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunil_Gavaskar

According to Wikipedia and many other searches, ST is the "Little Master" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sachin_Tendulkar and that is what I have known him as for most of his career.

Anyway, the match is all set up for him to produce another great innings, weather permitting of course.

PS I've seen both play - which probably shows my age.

[donvar]

- This part is a little subjective, but if you were me would you stick with the same employer or move?

Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.

Tempted to reply as similar case here with 6 years in same company with PD Jan 2008.
Stick with it and see it through whatever it takes as it is just a year.

I expect my PD to be current around Feb 2012.

[mars76]

Hi All,

Lets say the Sep Bulletin moves the cutoff date to AUG 1st . Then when the new Fiscal Year starts from Oct Bulletin aren't the Dates supposed to move based on monthly allocation ?? (How ever small that allocation might be)..

I checked the last year's bulletins from Oct 2010 to May 2011 and the dates only moved in May's bulletin. I thought it's because of so much backlog. This time the backlog is not what we had in 2010..

Could some one pls respond why the Dates only moved in May or ( in third or last quarter as it did in the prior years..)

Thanks..



Yesman welcome to the forum.In general people are being pointed to read the whole thread to improve their own understanding and reduce their anxiety.However let me offer my thoughts ,do take them with a pinch of salt.They are nowhere close to the insight the fab4 or gang of 4 ( too much deficit news on my mind :) ) might be able to provide.

1.Depending on movements in Sep and Oct bulletin your PD has a very good chance of becoming current by the later half of next year ( May 2012) .If an miracle happens and CO decides to fill pipeline it could be as soon as Jan 2012 or Dec 2011 .I would not bet the farm on it being before that.

2.New employer will usually take six months to get the advertisements done for the LC stage and depending on the approval times for PERM which are ranging from two months to 4 months you might be back in line by Oct 2012 if you change your job right now and no queries actually follow through on the recapture of PD.

3.I would atleast stick untill Oct VB to notice movement to make an decision..

P.S By the way my PD is in Nov 2007 and am stuck in a similar quandry...though being borderline am more confused and pulled in both directions .Heart says CO will fill the pipeline by Oct.Mind firmly says ...no way too good to be true and gates will close by August.

:) I noticed some fan posts for LOTR..here goes..Sep VB is the gates of Mordor for me.....

Boromir: One does not simply walk past the Sep VB . Its black gates are guarded by the bumbling staff of the mumbai consulate. There is evil there that does not print even one date properly . The great eye (CO) is ever watchful. It is a barren excel sheet , riddled with mistypes, html errors, and procedural delays. Many a man and woman had to go to the ER unable to bear this torture. Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly.

[qesehmk]

LoL Spec you are letting your guard fall!! Disclosing the age and all :)

Well you are not alone. Me too have seen India - England matches w Gavaskar, Vishwanaath on Indian side and Tony Greg, Chapel bros, Geoffrey Boycott (OMG!). Albeit I was in my single digits then. But still that doesn;t make me look very young does it?

Anyway .... so to my recollection Gavaskar is original little master. I think Tendlya is Little Champ not Master. People in Mumbai consider him GOD. But that's another matter ;) I just loved him when he debuted against Pakistan. Oh poor little Abdul Qadir almost came to tears. He plays well even today but I think its better he retire today when he is still doing good. Otherwise its painful to watch once great players struggling to keep up.

My personal opinion .... Sachin Fans dont jump on me. I am his fan too.


Are you sure? It made me check.

I am happy to acknowledge that "Sunny" may have been the original Master, although I have never heard him referred to in that way. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunil_Gavaskar

According to Wikipedia and many other searches, ST is the "Little Master" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sachin_Tendulkar and that is what I have known him as for most of his career.

Anyway, the match is all set up for him to produce another great innings, weather permitting of course.

PS I've seen both play - which probably shows my age.

[Spectator]

Hi All,

Lets say the Sep Bulletin moves the cutoff date to AUG 1st . Then when the new Fiscal Year starts from Oct Bulletin aren't the Dates supposed to move based on monthly allocation ?? (How ever small that allocation might be)..

I checked the last year's bulletins from Oct 2010 to May 2011 and the dates only moved in May's bulletin. I thought it's because of so much backlog. This time the backlog is not what we had in 2010..

Could some one pls respond why the Dates only moved in May or ( in third or last quarter as it did in the prior years..)

Thanks..mars76,

The generally accepted theory is that there were enough Porting cases with earlier PDs to consume the 250 or so visas available every month at the beginning of the year.

The dates only moved in May because it was announced that EB1 would provide at least 12k visas, otherwise they could not have moved until July.

At the beginning of FY2012, as well as any Porting cases, there are also likely to be an increasing number of PWMB and derivative cases becoming ready for adjudication.

I hope that at least partly answers your question.

[nishant2200]

Hi Guys, I have been following this thread for a while. Thanks for all the great work people are doing here. Like many others, I was hoping for significant movement in the Aug VB but was disappointed. I've been working for my current employer for over 5 1/2 years now and would really like a change. But my PD is April 4 2008. I have a couple of questions for the forum:

- What are the chances of my PD becoming current next year?
- How long will it take for a new employer to start a new GC and get me to the same stage by the time my PD is current?
- This part is a little subjective, but if you were me would you stick with the same employer or move?

Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.

I would put chances of you being current and getting EAD as 90% for next year. I would put chances of you getting green card as 50% next year. This if you stick with same job.

When you join a new employer, most employers start GC after a year, except if it's a consulting company or a small company with less strict rules, or if during hiring, you get to convince them about your situation, sometimes even set in stone place bulge. Suppose you manage to convince to start after six months, they would need to go for a recruiting effort and advertising campaign for the GC job position. Then they would file PERM labor. I am assuming this in total will take 6 months. So suppose you leave in September 2011, then in September 2012 you would have an approved PERM. Now if in September 2012, your date, April 2008, is current, which is a 50-50 chance as per me (it would be 90% few months earlier in 2012 assuming CO is doing some BTM), you can file 140 and 485 concurrently, or just file 140. Now, suppose your 140 takes 4 months to approve, then in January 2013, at which time around (few months after), I am putting 90% chance you would be current (again), and could get 485 approved or be able to file. If you had filed 485 concurrently, you would get GC in late 2012, early 2013, if not, then late mid 2013.

If staying with current employer is making your life miserable, and if you are going to get new job in a non consulting company, which shall be able to prove ability to pay and will do a bonafide recruiting campaign, then leave. Else just stick around and get done with it. One more year, you should get EAD.

ps: LOTR quote to inspire: “The quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little and it will fail. But hope remains, if friends stay true.”

[qesehmk]

yesman it depends on how terrible your situation is. I would wait till October to see if BTM happens (refer first page of thread). If it doesn't then the only time it will reach April 2008 will be May 2012 onwards. Once you become current then you can switch jobs only 6 months after filing 485. So that a total of 1 yr from Oct 2011.

Your new employer may be able to process everything within 1 yr. But that's a risk. So its your call. ..how unhappy you are today vs r you willing to take risk w new employer. If everything goes fine ... timeline wise I don't think you will lose if you change jobs.



Hi Guys, I have been following this thread for a while. Thanks for all the great work people are doing here. Like many others, I was hoping for significant movement in the Aug VB but was disappointed. I've been working for my current employer for over 5 1/2 years now and would really like a change. But my PD is April 4 2008. I have a couple of questions for the forum:

- What are the chances of my PD becoming current next year?
- How long will it take for a new employer to start a new GC and get me to the same stage by the time my PD is current?
- This part is a little subjective, but if you were me would you stick with the same employer or move?

Thanks in advance for your valuable comments.

[03May07]

Tempted to reply as similar case here with 6 years in same company with PD Jan 2008.
Stick with it and see it through whatever it takes as it is just a year.

I expect my PD to be current around Feb 2012.

While everyone is talking about 200th page on this thread, another important record passed by. donvar's post was #5000 and it happened on the 200th page. (This is significant in similar ways to Fletcher's 100th test as a coach in the 2000th International test match, which is a 100th test match between eng & India where there is an anticipation of Sachin scoring a 100th 100 in which Kevin got a 200 .....who in the world keeps track of coach's number of matches??)

Even I remember Little master to be SG.

Happy to see Spec getting involved in discussions(Indian cricket) other than crunching #'s. And because of this I'm guessing he's not Sangiano(whose profile says UK) ;)

[gchopeful123]

Sep VB :)
One VB to rule them all, One VB to find them,
One VB to bring them all and in the darkness bind them




Yesman welcome to the forum.In general people are being pointed to read the whole thread to improve their own understanding and reduce their anxiety.However let me offer my thoughts ,do take them with a pinch of salt.They are nowhere close to the insight the fab4 or gang of 4 ( too much deficit news on my mind :) ) might be able to provide.

1.Depending on movements in Sep and Oct bulletin your PD has a very good chance of becoming current by the later half of next year ( May 2012) .If an miracle happens and CO decides to fill pipeline it could be as soon as Jan 2012 or Dec 2011 .I would not bet the farm on it being before that.

2.New employer will usually take six months to get the advertisements done for the LC stage and depending on the approval times for PERM which are ranging from two months to 4 months you might be back in line by Oct 2012 if you change your job right now and no queries actually follow through on the recapture of PD.

3.I would atleast stick untill Oct VB to notice movement to make an decision..

P.S By the way my PD is in Nov 2007 and am stuck in a similar quandry...though being borderline am more confused and pulled in both directions .Heart says CO will fill the pipeline by Oct.Mind firmly says ...no way too good to be true and gates will close by August.

:) I noticed some fan posts for LOTR..here goes..Sep VB is the gates of Mordor for me.....

Boromir: One does not simply walk past the Sep VB . Its black gates are guarded by the bumbling staff of the mumbai consulate. There is evil there that does not print even one date properly . The great eye (CO) is ever watchful. It is a barren excel sheet , riddled with mistypes, html errors, and procedural delays. Many a man and woman had to go to the ER unable to bear this torture. Not with ten thousand men could you do this. It is folly.

[soggadu]

LoL Spec you are letting your guard fall!! Disclosing the age and all :)

Well you are not alone. Me too have seen India - England matches w Gavaskar, Vishwanaath on Indian side and Tony Greg, Chapel bros, Geoffrey Boycott (OMG!). Albeit I was in my single digits then. But still that doesn;t make me look very young does it?

Anyway .... so to my recollection Gavaskar is original little master. I think Tendlya is Little Champ not Master. People in Mumbai consider him GOD. But that's another matter ;) I just loved him when he debuted against Pakistan. Oh poor little Abdul Qadir almost came to tears. He plays well even today but I think its better he retire today when he is still doing good. Otherwise its painful to watch once great players struggling to keep up.

My personal opinion .... Sachin Fans dont jump on me. I am his fan too.

Q and S.... Sachin is more popularly called S master blaster by commentators....

[nishant2200]

2 more weeks to go. Does anyone know if historically DOS puts in demand data before Sep VB.

[soggadu]

2 more weeks to go. Does anyone know if historically DOS puts in demand data before Sep VB.

Nishant bhai.... You want a trailer before the movie release then hmm...

[familyguy]

Interesting Doc:

http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf

[kd2008]

Interesting Doc:

http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf

That is a great find, familyguy!

From that document, "Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010"

Oh boy! Not good, not good!

[mesan123]

That is a great find, familyguy!

From that document, "Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010"

Oh boy! Not good, not good!

May be 50% of the filling are porting folks from EB3 to EB2......

[veni001]

Interesting Doc:

http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf

familyguy,
Good find.

[nishant2200]

Also one has to remember, FY 2010 was at bottom of recession. All indications to me are FY 2012 will be lucky to get 20k SO. That wud be the goal to reach.

[veni001]

That is a great find, familyguy!

From that document, "Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010"

Oh boy! Not good, not good!

My calculations validate this, see below...


May be 50% of the filling are porting folks from EB3 to EB2......

We don't know for sure...


Also one has to remember, FY 2010 was at bottom of recession. All indications to me are FY 2012 will be lucky to get 20k SO. That wud be the goal to reach.

FY2010 Receipts (cases filed in FY2010 only)

From FY2010 PERM data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI)
FY2010 IC approvals = 10,173
FY2010 ROWMP approvals = 7,877
FY2010 Denials/Withdrawn= 2,040

From FY2011(Q1+Q2) PERM data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI)
FY2010 IC approvals = 13,213
FY2010 ROWMP approvals = 9,220
FY2010 Denials/Withdrawn= 477

From above data FY2010 PERM receipts = ~ 43K (or ~28K for first 8 months of FY2010)
From the FY2011 PERM document Oct'10-May'11 Receipts = ~45K (this validates 63% increase in first 8 months of FY2011 )

PERM applications proced in April'11-May'11
Oct'10-May'11 Receipts = ~45K
FY2011(Q1+Q2) approvals = 7.1K (only cases filed in FY2011)
FY2011(Q1+Q2) Denials = 0.4K (only cases filed in FY2011)

Above document (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf)shows both audits and review dates are in FY2011, which means 73% of the 22,000 pending PERM should be from FY2011 only. Since FY2009 saw the bottom, most of the appeals (24%) should also from FY 2011.

Let's take 85% of the pending PERM cases (=~19K) are from FY2011.
PERM processed in April'11-May'11 = 45K-7.1K-0.4k-19K = 18.5K
From FY2011(Q1+Q2) PERM data Approval to Denial ratio is 81:19

April'11-May'11 PERM approvals = 15K (from USCIS dashboard i140 receipts(include EB1&EB2NIW) are ~14K for the same period)

If we add the delay (~1 month) from PERM approval time to i140 receipt, then the delta between PERM approvals and i140 receipts is ~2.4K, which mean EB1 140 receipts (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI)for April & May are at the same level as Q1&Q2

[druvraj]

First of all I would like to congratulate everyone who have their PD current and to those as well who might become current in the sept bulletin to bring curtains on this visa year. I must say this year was great for all those who are from EB2IC and expecting such Spill over in the coming years will be stupid. Here are my 2 cents

1. I see very little help from EB2row for the visa year 2012 as i feel the economy will get better and more EB2row applicants will come. Do not underestimate people from pak , bangladesh etc... This year we got a few thousand from this category.
2. EB1 I feel like next year we should see some spillover but not a lot. Even though there is a backlog and and a potential to receive new cases one cannot get the required expertise in one year. I am very hopeful that USCIS will review all EB1 cases strictly and clear only the ones who are qualified. we might not get 12K but 6-8K is possible.
3. EB4-5 will help EB2IC for sure.
4. EB2C will get even less I guess but not sure.
5. Family based I have no clue. Can anyone tell me why we got spillover last year and not this year and is there is any for next year?

Please feel free to critique or comment. Anyways I have a PD of Feb 2008 and I just like others want to move on but am stuck.

[veni001]

First of all I would like to congratulate everyone who have their PD current and to those as well who might become current in the sept bulletin to bring curtains on this visa year. I must say this year was great for all those who are from EB2IC and expecting such Spill over in the coming years will be stupid. Here are my 2 cents

1. I see very little help from EB2row for the visa year 2012 as i feel the economy will get better and more EB2row applicants will come. Do not underestimate people from pak , bangladesh etc... This year we got a few thousand from this category.
2. EB1 I feel like next year we should see some spillover but not a lot. Even though there is a backlog and and a potential to receive new cases one cannot get the required expertise in one year. I am very hopeful that USCIS will review all EB1 cases strictly and clear only the ones who are qualified. we might not get 12K but 6-8K is possible.
3. EB4-5 will help EB2IC for sure.
4. EB2C will get even less I guess but not sure.
5. Family based I have no clue. Can anyone tell me why we got spillover last year and not this year and is there is any for next year?

Please feel free to critique or comment. Anyways I have a PD of Feb 2008 and I just like others want to move on but am stuck.

druvraj,
Agree we may not get similar to this year's SOFAD moving forward, but you never now!

Also looking at history and I-360 trend, i don't think there will be any spillover from EB4

Any prior year unused VISAs from FB will spillover to current year EB and viceversa. Based Q1+Q2 FB usage by USCIS (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf), i don't think there will be any FB spillover next year!

[druvraj]

druvraj,
Agree we may not get similar to this year's SOFAD moving forward, but you never now!

Also looking at history and I-360 trend, i don't think there will be any spillover from EB4

Any prior year unused VISAs from FB will spillover to current year EB and viceversa. Based Q1+Q2 FB usage by USCIS (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf), i don't think there will be any FB spillover next year!

Veni,

In that case I feel like we might get only 8-10K of spill over along with 2.8K of regular quota. This effectively means that we might reach Jan 1 2008 at the most if no BTM happens.

[qblogfan]

Q, yes, I agree.

Mr.CO never told people accurate information in the past. Also he changes his mind quickly.

I would not put too much trust into the rumors on mitbbs. We have to use our own judgement. Let's see what will happen in the next VB.



BamBam - Congratulations! Joy when shared increases.




qbf - to be honest while I do believe its possible - I doubt CO will say it so clearly. In terms of disclosing useful information he is only next to Alan Greenspan.


Spec ... a very interesting statistic I will tell you ... if you look at the historical (i.e. 2000 till date) EB2I approvals and add the 2011 backlog of EB2I. The total number comes exactly to 16K per year. So it means while demand is 16K per year, EB2I also sees approvals of 16K per year over extended periods. So EB2I will most likely never be current as a category but the great news is they will always get GC in 4-5 years start to finish as long as no other category's demand increases in a fundamental manner.


Spec ... are you aware Little MAster is "Sunil Gavaskar" not "Tendulkar". That point beside.... I feel happy as well as lucky to have such a community we have built. The way people react and respond and share to help others - proves that given a chance people generally are good and of helping nature. Lets keep it that way.

[nishant2200]

Veni,

In that case I feel like we might get only 8-10K of spill over along with 2.8K of regular quota. This effectively means that we might reach Jan 1 2008 at the most if no BTM happens.

In an old post 4538, I had done some simple calculation from just PERM data compiled in the facts and data section by the gurus.

I am re-pasting some of it here, but that will show you that with just 8-10k, plus 2.8, say 12.8k, porting will eat away half. and remaining 7k will not even cross 2007. My figures are bit higher, per others, but still, just 10k will not be good to cross 2007.

Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143

BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.

Hence scenarios:

BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand

[veni001]

Veni,

In that case I feel like we might get only 8-10K of spill over along with 2.8K of regular quota. This effectively means that we might reach Jan 1 2008 at the most if no BTM happens.

druvraj,
Based on the information we have to-date EB1 demand is really low(less than 12k in Q1+Q2) and EB2ROWMP usage is more or less the same as last year. With the increased efforts from USCIS EB5 may pick-up some new demand but not sure how long it is going to sustain.

So the key for future years SOFAD will be based on how EB1,EB2ROWMP and EB5 is going to behave!

[nishant2200]

For me, 11/2007, I think it's going to go down to the last ball of the over. btw, yesterday I won 3 dollars in the Mega Millions Lottery draw. seriously.

[veni001]

For me, 11/2007, I think it's going to go down to the last ball of the over. btw, yesterday I won 3 dollars in the Mega Millions Lottery draw. seriously.

nishant,
Good, you can buy three more tickets now! :)

[indiasunil]

nishant,
Good, you can buy three more tickets now! :)

I got $12, bought for $5. lost .. hahah. :o

Sunil.

[BamBam]

I found this on Murthy.com. I do not see any potential benefit other than being a source of revenue for USCIS and causing more hurdles for EB-IC who are waiting for in terms of decades.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_mtaacr.html

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your hard work!


In an old post 4538, I had done some simple calculation from just PERM data compiled in the facts and data section by the gurus.

I am re-pasting some of it here, but that will show you that with just 8-10k, plus 2.8, say 12.8k, porting will eat away half. and remaining 7k will not even cross 2007. My figures are bit higher, per others, but still, just 10k will not be good to cross 2007.

Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143

BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.

Hence scenarios:

BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand

[nishant2200]

I found this on Murthy.com. I do not see any potential benefit other than being a source of revenue for USCIS and causing more hurdles for EB-IC who are waiting for in terms of decades.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_mtaacr.html

U r correct in ur observations. Thanks for sharing.

My additional take. More they tighten screws on EAD folks, more porting.

[qesehmk]

Absolutely ...

Murthy's website doesn't clearly state their stand on this proposal. I hope they oppose it.


I found this on Murthy.com. I do not see any potential benefit other than being a source of revenue for USCIS and causing more hurdles for EB-IC who are waiting for in terms of decades.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_mtaacr.html

[nishant2200]

Absolutely ...

Murthy's website doesn't clearly state their stand on this proposal. I hope they oppose it.

Q, law firms will not vehemently oppose something which may lead to porting, or fees in terms of people hiring them to renew apps, fill out forms, pay for advice on same or similar prioir to changing, sign onto G28s to appear as attorney. They don't really care about anyone's well being, it's a business. Lobby groups, ombudsman, AILA, ... These guys I have seen take up well being issues.

[Sandeep2011]

I joined the forum today but have been following all the discussions for last couple of days. I would like to sincerely thank all gurus and everyone else who have been active on this forum, for their amazing work and support to each other. I need some advice - my PD is EB2I 19th Sept 07 and I have to be outside US for the months of Feb and Mar' 12 for work. What is the likelihood of me filing 485 before Feb'12 and also is there any documentation that I need to have to make my return to US easier. I'll have a valid H1B visa, do I need anything else? Any comments or pointers to where I can find relevant information will be really appreciated. Thank you.

[gcq]

I found this on Murthy.com. I do not see any potential benefit other than being a source of revenue for USCIS and causing more hurdles for EB-IC who are waiting for in terms of decades.

http://www.murthy.com/news/n_mtaacr.html
IMO this is not just a revenues source. It is a necessary formality to ensure that our AC21 reaches our file. Today there is no way of guaranteeing that our AC21 letters are filed properly along with our I-485 resulting in unnecessary RFEs and NOID. As long as the fee is nominal, it should be fine.

[qesehmk]

I wouldn't worry too much if its a 2 month stay abroad. Worst case is you file CP. As per reentry - valid H1 visa is usually enough. I personally always take a letter from HR stating that I am employed and was traveling abroad for personal or business reasons.


I joined the forum today but have been following all the discussions for last couple of days. I would like to sincerely thank all gurus and everyone else who have been active on this forum, for their amazing work and support to each other. I need some advice - my PD is EB2I 19th Sept 07 and I have to be outside US for the months of Feb and Mar' 12 for work. What is the likelihood of me filing 485 before Feb'12 and also is there any documentation that I need to have to make my return to US easier. I'll have a valid H1B visa, do I need anything else? Any comments or pointers to where I can find relevant information will be really appreciated. Thank you.


IMO this is not just a revenues source. It is a necessary formality to ensure that our AC21 reaches our file. Today there is no way of guaranteeing that our AC21 letters are filed properly along with our I-485 resulting in unnecessary RFEs and NOID. As long as the fee is nominal, it should be fine.
I may be wrong but I thought the news stated that today there is NO requirement that one file anything. AC21 is just a provision that one can benefit without filing anything. Which if true beats any new form / requirement that USCIS will put forth. Then the GC applicant will have to go through an additional "approval" process for AC21 , isn't it?

[gcq]

I may be wrong but I thought the news stated that today there is NO requirement that one file anything. AC21 is just a provision that one can benefit without filing anything. Which if true beats any new form / requirement that USCIS will put forth. Then the GC applicant will have to go through an additional "approval" process for AC21 , isn't it?

AC21 is invoked when someone changes job as per law. If USCIS doesn't come to know about this, they won't do anything. If the old employer withdraws I-140, USCIS will have no way of knowing whether you have a qualifying same/similar job so that they can continue processing I-485. With no former process of notifying AC21, the AC21 letter send may not even reach the file.

When they have a formal process, AC21 is guaranteed to reach your file as you already paid the fee with the proper forms.

[skpanda]

FYI,
just noticed that USCIS has officially posted the I485 inventory (May 2011) on their site.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Earlier we had access to this somewhere in the site but not along with prior inventory.

[qesehmk]

Trackitt based predictions updated. You can read at

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716

In summary - the trend is holding strong. backlog clearance through Aug 2007 is not ruled out.

[natvyas]

Q

Can we expect to receive a heads-up from your source this month as well?

Regards
Nat

[qesehmk]

Of course we will try.


Q

Can we expect to receive a heads-up from your source this month as well?

Regards
Nat

[qblogfan]

I agree. It's all about money.

The law firms don't give a damn to our EB immigrants who have been waiting for many years. They only want to squeeze more money from us. The employers don't want us to have freedom because they want to squeeze more money from us. The USCIS/DOS don't give us a damn and plan to squeeze more fees from us.


Q, law firms will not vehemently oppose something which may lead to porting, or fees in terms of people hiring them to renew apps, fill out forms, pay for advice on same or similar prioir to changing, sign onto G28s to appear as attorney. They don't really care about anyone's well being, it's a business. Lobby groups, ombudsman, AILA, ... These guys I have seen take up well being issues.

[grnwtg]

Yes, as per lawyer it is valid secondary evidence. Actually he told me I will be ok, but I want to be careful. I also found a 'one and same person' affidavit on a immigration website, maybe I will just keep that ready.

Thats good, but in my case is 'affidavit' fine? . I am not sure how to justify in affidavit. I am still not sure why last names were omitted/why they cannot correct for my FIL, MIL.
Nishant/OthersPlease suggest me if anyone has this experience

[kd2008]

Testing image in a post

http://www.uscis.gov/images/layout/logo.jpg

Q, OK here is how you may post your image and not have people login to view it.

the task is to "host" the image and obtain a URL for it. There are many "free image hosting" services. One example is tinypic (http://www.tinypic.com/) . These free image hosting sites are usually supported by advertising. Moderate caution is advisable as in any Internet situation where you appear to be getting something for nothing. Once you have the finished image in a file, in one of the standard formats such as .jpg or .png, you go to the free hosting site, upload the image, and the site will give you the address of the place where it's hosted the image. Tinypic is an example of one that helpfully formats the complete "IMG code"--the url surrounded by the two IMG tags--so you can copy and paste it in directly.

For example,

http://www.uscis.gov/images/layout/logo.jpg shows the above USCIS image. (There is no space between MG] and http and no space between .jpg and [/ )

[grnwtg]

Affidavit works great. My wife submitted the same. Dont expect any hiccups. I am not aware of any "Required" format. We just made up our own.


Amen to that. TATAs were / are / and will be the best Corporate house in India. I have nothing but outstanding experience with them.




Nishant no worries ... I personally like this one thread model better because it works better for people. I and others will work in the background to move appropriate topicss to appropriate threads.


Revocation is legal only if employers revokes within 6 months. After 6 months AC21 applies and I-140 becomes irrevocable. That's my understanding. Others please correct me if I am wrong.

Thanks Q for confirming.

[druvraj]

FYI,
just noticed that USCIS has officially posted the I485 inventory (May 2011) on their site.

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Earlier we had access to this somewhere in the site but not along with prior inventory.


Can some tell me how can people after July File 485? Could someone also help me understand the numbers in the document titled All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers and Field Offices as of June 2011?

Thanks in advance.

[testuser]

Hi All,

Before I ask my question I want to say thanks to all the gurus who are contributing to this forum. This is possibly the best forum for EB2 Information.

Thank you guys. You are helping hundreds of people looking for more information about the process.

My question is about the PERM Breakdowns For PD...

I downloaded the PERM data from www.flcdatacenter.com, for the years 2008,2009,2010.
Opened the Data in Excel.
Added filter and then filtered only data for India and China for PERMs which are certified and I found these were number of PERMs Certified...

Financial Year - Certified PERM(China) - Certified PERM(India) - Total
2008 - 1210 - 7198 - 8408
2009 - 1090 - 6403 - 7493
2010 - 1778 - 14872 - 16650

My question is, I don't want to offend anyone by asking this, are there more ways of filing PERM as the data in the flcdatacenter and FACTS and DATA section do not match.

Looking at the data from flcdatacenter, I was under the impression that the priority date might move to 2010 in a year or two as there were fewer PERMS. But I am not sure looking at the data in FACTS and DATA section.

Thanks in advance.

[Gclongwait]

Hi All,

Before I ask my question I want to say thanks to all the gurus who are contributing to this forum. This is possibly the best forum for EB2 Information.

Thank you guys. You are helping hundreds of people looking for more information about the process.

My question is about the PERM Breakdowns For PD...

I downloaded the PERM data from www.flcdatacenter.com, for the years 2008,2009,2010.
Opened the Data in Excel.
Added filter and then filtered only data for India and China for PERMs which are certified and I found these were number of PERMs Certified...

Financial Year - Certified PERM(China) - Certified PERM(India) - Total
2008 - 1210 - 7198 - 8408
2009 - 1090 - 6403 - 7493
2010 - 1778 - 14872 - 16650

My question is, I don't want to offend anyone by asking this, are there more ways of filing PERM as the data in the flcdatacenter and FACTS and DATA section do not match.

Looking at the data from flcdatacenter, I was under the impression that the priority date might move to 2010 in a year or two as there were fewer PERMS. But I am not sure looking at the data in FACTS and DATA section.

Thanks in advance.

You need to change your search to certified or certified expired

[nishant2200]

Hi All,

Before I ask my question I want to say thanks to all the gurus who are contributing to this forum. This is possibly the best forum for EB2 Information.

Thank you guys. You are helping hundreds of people looking for more information about the process.

My question is about the PERM Breakdowns For PD...

I downloaded the PERM data from www.flcdatacenter.com, for the years 2008,2009,2010.
Opened the Data in Excel.
Added filter and then filtered only data for India and China for PERMs which are certified and I found these were number of PERMs Certified...

Financial Year - Certified PERM(China) - Certified PERM(India) - Total
2008 - 1210 - 7198 - 8408
2009 - 1090 - 6403 - 7493
2010 - 1778 - 14872 - 16650

My question is, I don't want to offend anyone by asking this, are there more ways of filing PERM as the data in the flcdatacenter and FACTS and DATA section do not match.

Looking at the data from flcdatacenter, I was under the impression that the priority date might move to 2010 in a year or two as there were fewer PERMS. But I am not sure looking at the data in FACTS and DATA section.

Thanks in advance.

Unless a PERM is withdrawn or rejected, it counts. They all automatically expire after 180 days.

[July2007PD]

whats going on :)

[whereismygclost]

Silence before the Storm or is it the sadness at losing the first test match with England?

[soggadu]

whats going on :)

complaints of Noise to signal ratio increasing, making most of the frequent visitors to just read than comment...

[soggadu]

Silence before the Storm or is it the sadness at losing the first test match with England?

sach bolo bhai... r u applying for GC (labor+140+485 again) because the first one was lost?

[testuser]

I checked the data for Certified and Certified Expired too, but the data doesn't match.

Here is the data:
Financial Year Certified(China) Expired(China) Certified(India) Expired(India) Total
2008 1210 2118 7198 9371 19897
2009 1090 1022 6403 4984 13499
2010 1778 2274 14872 14058 32982

Also, why would the USCIS consider the Expired PERMs as they cannot be used again by the company for any other employee.

Thanks in advance.

[whereismygclost]

haan bhai ..saachi main my labor filed in 2003 was lost in the manual labor backlog reduction centers era before PERM started.All waste. I now have a PD of 3 Oct,2007 EB2-I. Dekhte hain mera number finally kab ayega!!

[Monica12]

still 2 weeks before Sep VB comes out...this wait is killing me...sighhh...
How to pass time ??????

[orangeca]

Gurus- No more analysis on the '63% increase'. Should it give 'full tension' to guys with PD in FEB-2008 as in PD might not reach that date even in FY2012? Will appreciate any comments..


That is a great find, familyguy!

From that document, "Note there has been a 63% increase in cases filed FY 2011 over cases filed in FY 2010"

Oh boy! Not good, not good!

[kd2008]

I checked the data for Certified and Certified Expired too, but the data doesn't match.

Here is the data:
Financial Year Certified(China) Expired(China) Certified(India) Expired(India) Total
2008 1210 2118 7198 9371 19897
2009 1090 1022 6403 4984 13499
2010 1778 2274 14872 14058 32982

Also, why would the USCIS consider the Expired PERMs as they cannot be used again by the company for any other employee.

Thanks in advance.

A reading of about 40-50 pages of this thread may be useful or should I say is needed. Search terms like certified expired etc and you will get you answers. I understand that you are trying to satisfy your curiosity. So no offense taken at your questions. But the Gurus have been put through a wringer before they were able to put that data out.

DOL takes a snapshot of its database before publishing. If an application has been approved 6 months a ago then its appears as certified-expired, if less than 6 months then certified. Even then there are more nuances to it that's why this thread is over 200 pages long. DOL does not care what happens to the application and USCIS has nothing to do with this database.

Q, Spec, V, would it be possible to post a simple algorithm on how go about calculating PERM data. Every newbie wants to know how to do that themselves.

[soggadu]

haan bhai ..saachi main my labor filed in 2003 was lost in the manual labor backlog reduction centers era before PERM started.All waste. I now have a PD of 3 Oct,2007 EB2-I. Dekhte hain mera number finally kab ayega!!

Sorry to hear about that bhai jaan... chodo issi bahane hum dono ek hi mahiney ka PD vaale hue...

[qesehmk]

Spec / Veni

KD has a good point. Can you please post your magic formula where it is not clear?

Also ... I just chcked the FACTS section ... and wondere if some of those threads are redundant.

Personally I do not update any of those threads EXCEPT "TRACKITT BASED PREDICTION". So the rest started by "admin" can be deleted if you have already them covered somewhere. Pls advise.

A reading of about 40-50 pages of this thread may be useful or should I say is needed. Search terms like certified expired etc and you will get you answers. I understand that you are trying to satisfy your curiosity. So no offense taken at your questions. But the Gurus have been put through a wringer before they were able to put that data out.

DOL takes a snapshot of its database before publishing. If an application has been approved 6 months a ago then its appears as certified-expired, if less than 6 months then certified. Even then there are more nuances to it that's why this thread is over 200 pages long. DOL does not care what happens to the application and USCIS has nothing to do with this database.

Q, Spec, V, would it be possible to post a simple algorithm on how go about calculating PERM data. Every newbie wants to know how to do that themselves.

[soggadu]

I checked the data for Certified and Certified Expired too, but the data doesn't match.

Here is the data:
Financial Year Certified(China) Expired(China) Certified(India) Expired(India) Total
2008 1210 2118 7198 9371 19897
2009 1090 1022 6403 4984 13499
2010 1778 2274 14872 14058 32982

Also, why would the USCIS consider the Expired PERMs as they cannot be used again by the company for any other employee.

Thanks in advance.

arey uncle... yehi baat pe itni behas hui hein ki voh topic ki behes ki aank bhi ho gayi... best thing is to either PM/wait for S/V to respond or ithihas ki pannon ko pado... i mean read the previous pages ...

Testuser naam rakh ke... humara knowledge test toh nahi kar rahe ho na...

[soggadu]

still 2 weeks before Sep VB comes out...this wait is killing me...sighhh...
How to pass time ??????

pray for my PD to get current :-)

[Monica12]

pray for my PD to get current :-)
LOL ! buddy...I'm praying everyday! still time pass nahi ho raha....
Your sense of humor and the analysis on this forum is keeping me sane :)

[Monica12]

just went for the movie " Zindagi na milegi dobara"
PS: USCIS people : my life is passing me by....PLEASE give me GC soon or I'm seriously going to Spain for scuba and sky diving :)

[haripathhi]

Well said kd!


A reading of about 40-50 pages of this thread may be useful or should I say is needed. Search terms like certified expired etc and you will get you answers. I understand that you are trying to satisfy your curiosity. So no offense taken at your questions. But the Gurus have been put through a wringer before they were able to put that data out.

DOL takes a snapshot of its database before publishing. If an application has been approved 6 months a ago then its appears as certified-expired, if less than 6 months then certified. Even then there are more nuances to it that's why this thread is over 200 pages long. DOL does not care what happens to the application and USCIS has nothing to do with this database.

Q, Spec, V, would it be possible to post a simple algorithm on how go about calculating PERM data. Every newbie wants to know how to do that themselves.

[Spectator]

I checked the data for Certified and Certified Expired too, but the data doesn't match.

Here is the data:
Financial Year Certified(China) Expired(China) Certified(India) Expired(India) Total
2008 1210 2118 7198 9371 19897
2009 1090 1022 6403 4984 13499
2010 1778 2274 14872 14058 32982

Also, why would the USCIS consider the Expired PERMs as they cannot be used again by the company for any other employee.

Thanks in advance.I agree with your numbers.

So :

FY2008 China = 1,210+2,118 = 3,328
FY2008 India = 7,198+9,371 = 16,569

FY2009 China = 1,090+1,022 = 2,112
FY2009 India = 6,403+4,984 = 11,387

FY2010 China = 1,778+2,274 = 4,052
FY2010 India = 14,872+14,058 = 28,930

In the table in FACTS & DATA http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI you can see these figures

CHINA ----- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 186 ------- 8 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------------- 0 ------- 194
2006 ------- 3,053 ------ 39 ------ 16 ------- 3 ------------- 0 ----- 3,111
2007 ------- 3,607 --- 1,916 ----- 179 ----- 198 ------------- 5 ----- 5,905
2008 ----------- 0 --- 1,365 --- 1,915 ----- 666 ----------- 188 ----- 4,134
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 2 --- 2,169 ------------ 60 ----- 2,231
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 1,016 --------- 1,369 ----- 2,385
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----------- 493 ------- 493
Total ------ 6,846 --- 3,328 --- 2,112 --- 4,052 --------- 2,115 ---- 18,453


INDIA ----- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 Q1-Q2 -- CY Total
2005 --------- 393 ------ 27 ------- 5 ------- 1 ------------- 0 ------- 426
2006 ------ 11,461 ----- 108 ------ 54 ------ 11 ------------- 1 ---- 11,635
2007 ------ 12,719 --- 8,335 ----- 962 --- 1,005 ------------ 43 ---- 23,064
2008 ----------- 0 --- 8,099 -- 10,358 --- 3,702 --------- 1,193 ---- 23,352
2009 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 8 -- 15,054 ----------- 940 ---- 16,002
2010 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 9,157 -------- 11,849 ---- 21,006
2011 ----------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --------- 3,804 ----- 3,804
Total ----- 24,573 -- 16,569 -- 11,387 -- 28,930 -------- 17,830 ---- 99,289

As has already been said, DOL automatically mark Certifications as Certified Expired after 180 days.

They do not check whether or not an I-140 has been submitted within 180 days or not and there does not appear to be any communication between DOL and USCIS about this.

There are numerous examples from people whose PERM shows as Certified Expired where they have an approved I-140 as a result of it.

[mesan123]

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9218607/House_Republicans_consider_high_skills_immigration _bill

found this website in trackitt......dont know howmuch of it will work...may be thought GURU's can shed some light to it ....:)

[Spectator]

Q, Spec, V, would it be possible to post a simple algorithm on how go about calculating PERM data. Every newbie wants to know how to do that themselves.kd,

The simple version is as follows:

Import Access file into Excel. If you are using an older version of Excel and the Access file has more than 64k records, you will have to set a filter on the import to bring the number below 64k. You can then import the rest of the records by excluding those from the first import when you import a second time. I eventually just upgraded to Excel 2010 because of the limit of 64k rows in Excel 2003. Having the data in more than one sheet makes things more complicated and leads to the risk of not importing all the data.

Add extra columns as necessary.

The one that is absolutely necessary to work with Priority Dates is the derived Received Date.

Assuming the Case Number is in A2 then the formula =DATE(2000+INT(MID(A2,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A2,3,5),1000)) gives the Received Date for that Case Number.

Depending on which version of Excel you are using, you may also need to derive the Calendar Month and Calendar Year of the Received Date in additional columns.

I then use a Pivot Table to analyze the data directly. Within the Pivot Table, I first group all Countries that are not China, India, Mexico or Philippines into ROW, so my result match the DOS groupings.

It is then just a case of dragging headings to the relevant areas. Simple ones would be a breakdown of cases by Case Status, or numbers by DOS Grouping. Since you can apply filters, it is very easy to look at a particular Country or groups such as IC or ROW-M-P.

If you haven't discovered Pivot Tables, I recommend them highly. They take a bit of getting used to initially , but there are some good web tutorials. Far better than sorting and counting rows, I assure you!

Some of the Pivot Table tools in Excel 2010 make additional groupings trivial, so I only have to add the Received Date to the original data.

You can make groups by Calendar or Fiscal Year for Received or Adjudication Date - whatever takes your fancy.

I have combined all the PERM data from FY2006 to date into a single large spreadsheet which is currently 121MB in size and has 429,867 rows to make reporting PD numbers over several FY a single step process.

If you have any questions, just ask.

[ssvp22]

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9218607/House_Republicans_consider_high_skills_immigration _bill

found this website in trackitt......dont know howmuch of it will work...may be thought GURU's can shed some light to it ....:)
One can read the comments there and conclude what will happen to the bill. Kam khud nahi karna, poora din leadership ki baataein, aur blame immigrants ko karo.

[nishant2200]

One can read the comments there and conclude what will happen to the bill. Kam khud nahi karna, poora din leadership ki baataein, aur blame immigrants ko karo.

I still believe one should not lose heart. I am happy to see such persistent efforts. I am fairly confident that within next decade, something will be done.

[veni001]

kd,

The simple version is as follows:

Import Access file into Excel. If you are using an older version of Excel and the Access file has more than 64k records, you will have to set a filter on the import to bring the number below 64k. You can then import the rest of the records by excluding those from the first import when you import a second time. I eventually just upgraded to Excel 2010 because of the limit of 64k rows in Excel 2003. Having the data in more than one sheet makes things more complicated and leads to the risk of not importing all the data.

Add extra columns as necessary.

The one that is absolutely necessary to work with Priority Dates is the derived Received Date.

Assuming the Case Number is in A2 then the formula =DATE(2000+INT(MID(A2,3,5)/1000),1,MOD(MID(A2,3,5),1000)) gives the Received Date for that Case Number.

Depending on which version of Excel you are using, you may also need to derive the Calendar Month and Calendar Year of the Received Date in additional columns.

I then use a Pivot Table to analyze the data directly. Within the Pivot Table, I first group all Countries that are not China, India, Mexico or Philippines into ROW, so my result match the DOS groupings.

It is then just a case of dragging headings to the relevant areas. Simple ones would be a breakdown of cases by Case Status, or numbers by DOS Grouping. Since you can apply filters, it is very easy to look at a particular Country or groups such as IC or ROW-M-P.

If you haven't discovered Pivot Tables, I recommend them highly. They take a bit of getting used to initially , but there are some good web tutorials. Far better than sorting and counting rows, I assure you!

Some of the Pivot Table tools in Excel 2010 make additional groupings trivial, so I only have to add the Received Date to the original data.

You can make groups by Calendar or Fiscal Year for Received or Adjudication Date - whatever takes your fancy.

I have combined all the PERM data from FY2006 to date into a single large spreadsheet which is currently 121MB in size and has 429,867 rows to make reporting PD numbers over several FY a single step process.

If you have any questions, just ask.

Spec,
Good, i just copied this post to Facts and Data Section under PERM data and calculations for future newbies(readers) reference.

[Pdmar08]

U know u can do that here 2 right unless this place in Spain u get to do both in one go ;)

just went for the movie " Zindagi na milegi dobara"
PS: USCIS people : my life is passing me by....PLEASE give me GC soon or I'm seriously going to Spain for scuba and sky diving :)

[vizcard]

U know u can do that here 2 right unless this place in Spain u get to do both in one go ;)

Jump out of the plane over the sea, open your parachute at 500 feet ..... you'll do deep sea diving and sky diving in the same jump :)

On a more serious note, I'm getting less optimistic that Aug 2008 PD will be current in FY 2012. But who knows ...

[PlainSpeak]

I still believe one should not lose heart. I am happy to see such persistent efforts. I am fairly confident that within next decade, something will be done.

Next Decade Seriously !!!!!!!!!

[ssvp22]

Next Decade Seriously !!!!!!!!!

@nishant2200 you are planning really long term. I already lost my hair in the GC loop. Hope we dont loose hearts, lungs and few more parts before we get the GC.

[PlainSpeak]

@nishant2200 you are planning really long term. I already lost my hair in the GC loop. Hope we dont loose hearts, lungs and few more parts before we get the GC.

MAybe Nishant is ayoung dude (20-25 years of age) so next decade would make him 35. Yes i guess he can still wait till 35.

Me i guess i will get my GC when i have lost all my hair and my teeth and have above 65

CIS : Congratulations Heres your GC !!!!
Me : Please wait as it wil take time for me to stand up from my wheelchair and walk towards you to take my GC

[Monica12]

Jump out of the plane over the sea, open your parachute at 500 feet ..... you'll do deep sea diving and sky diving in the same jump :)

On a more serious note, I'm getting less optimistic that Aug 2008 PD will be current in FY 2012. But who knows ...

Pdmarch08, Vizcard...LOL! now you guys are starting to give me ideas....
On a side note, I will refrain myself from any kind of diving till the Sep VB comes out...:p

[indiaeb2]

Getting Current is all luck and no one can decide it ..i pray for all you to become current like July fisco.

[gc_usa]

I think demand data will be released on 8th and same day bulletin. If they want to open gate till Mid 2008 then.

[soggadu]

Pdmarch08, Vizcard...LOL! now you guys are starting to give me ideas....
On a side note, I will refrain myself from any kind of diving till the Sep VB comes out...:p

socho on a lighter note, there will be lot of people who want to dive once the sep bulletin is out...

book one for me...the one without oxygen tank... just direct behes ki ankh ...

[Monica12]

socho on a lighter note, there will be lot of people who want to dive once the sep bulletin is out...

book one for me...the one without oxygen tank... just direct behes ki ankh ...

Damn... I didn't think of that. Now, my diving plans are also based on Sep VB....:)
Soggadu...chal mil kaar diving karenge ....whether we will use oxygen tank or not , will depend on what comes out on Aug 8

[soggadu]

MAybe Nishant is ayoung dude (20-25 years of age) so next decade would make him 35. Yes i guess he can still wait till 35.

Me i guess i will get my GC when i have lost all my hair and my teeth and have above 65

...GC aneke baad kya karne ka iraada hein bhaiyooo...

CIS : Congratulations Heres your GC !!!!
Me : Please wait as it wil take time for me to stand up from my wheelchair and walk towards you to take my GC

chaddo ji...male karva leena ;-)


******************************

[soggadu]

Damn... I didn't think of that. Now, my diving plans are also based on Sep VB....:)
Soggadu...chal mil kaar diving karenge ....whether we will use oxygen tank or not , will depend on what comes out on Aug 8

aap ki GC ki supari nikal chuki hein ji... tension na loo...

[RRRRRR]

Hi All,

Just came across this link, I am sure most of you would have seen this before. This seems to be a very accurate prediction based on the fact that it was done in Nov/2010. Also the remaining visa number 5-6k is in line with what we are expecting in SEP VB. Hope this will help.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions-15/eb2-india-and-china-preditions-12708/

[nishant2200]

Hi All,

Just came across this link, I am sure most of you would have seen this before. This seems to be a very accurate prediction based on the fact that it was done in Nov/2010. Also the remaining visa number 5-6k is in line with what we are expecting in SEP VB. Hope this will help.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions-15/eb2-india-and-china-preditions-12708/

Yes. Also Q updated trackitt based projections few days back, and they also seem to indicate similarly some movement similarly.

I think it's dependent on how many in the EB1 and EB2 ROW backlog are documentarily qualified as well as new incoming from them in last few months got straightforward qualified, and more than the actual numbers now, the trend in that which CO sees. We are at that mercy.

[nishant2200]

Here is my latest feelings on the movement. Of course with any new information coming in, it can change.

Dates would move 8 weeks to 15th June 2007, 4k movement.

Then in FY 2012, dates will move slowly, a week or two weeks, each bulletin, until it hits 15th August 2007. By this time, they will be in end of Q2, beginning of Q3, and CO/DOS will have a projection trend of expected SO, as well as accumulated demand for EB2 I/C and Porting so far till that point in time, then based on this, they will do the BTM. They may realize at this point, that they only need applications until 2007 year end, but still may move by a few more months, in 2008, to make inventory, as well as hold promise to the NVC notices. So far from internet extensive searching, I have never found a situation where they sent NVC notices and dates did not move in the coming year.

[dreamer]

Just came across this link, looks close enough from predictions wise
http://www.myprioritydate.com/

Didn't mean to promote the link or anything, just found it as interesting and sharing it. I was not that happy looking at my own priority date i.e., Sep 29, 2008, I hate to see May 2013 as expected date but can't do anything rather than just accepting the fact unless there is BTM ;)

[natvyas]

Here is my latest feelings on the movement. Of course with any new information coming in, it can change.

Dates would move 8 weeks to 15th June 2007, 4k movement.

Then in FY 2012, dates will move slowly, a week or two weeks, each bulletin, until it hits 15th August 2007. By this time, they will be in end of Q2, beginning of Q3, and CO/DOS will have a projection trend of expected SO, as well as accumulated demand for EB2 I/C and Porting so far till that point in time, then based on this, they will do the BTM. They may realize at this point, that they only need applications until 2007 year end, but still may move by a few more months, in 2008, to make inventory, as well as hold promise to the NVC notices. So far from internet extensive searching, I have never found a situation where they sent NVC notices and dates did not move in the coming year.

Nishant

The authentic information we have on the NVC receipt, is from someone with a PD of June 08, right?

Regards
Nat

[nishant2200]

Nishant

The authentic information we have on the NVC receipt, is from someone with a PD of June 08, right?

Regards
Nat

Nat, the only June 08 I know of, is a user called Vick something, on IV. He claims he has June 08 and got NVC notice. Otherwise most of the chatter or noise I saw on internet forums, was all people until March-April 2008, this is my impression.

No one has actually scanned a notice and put it up, so with regards to "authentic", can't really say we have verified proof.

[soggadu]

Nat, the only June 08 I know of, is a user called Vick something, on IV. He claims he has June 08 and got NVC notice. Otherwise most of the chatter or noise I saw on internet forums, was all people until March-April 2008, this is my impression.

No one has actually scanned a notice and put it up, so with regards to "authentic", can't really say we have verified proof.

Nishant... i guess these are mostly emails which people have copy pasted...

[soggadu]

Here is my latest feelings on the movement. Of course with any new information coming in, it can change.

Dates would move 8 weeks to 15th June 2007, 4k movement.

Then in FY 2012, dates will move slowly, a week or two weeks, each bulletin, until it hits 15th August 2007. By this time, they will be in end of Q2, beginning of Q3, and CO/DOS will have a projection trend of expected SO, as well as accumulated demand for EB2 I/C and Porting so far till that point in time, then based on this, they will do the BTM. They may realize at this point, that they only need applications until 2007 year end, but still may move by a few more months, in 2008, to make inventory, as well as hold promise to the NVC notices. So far from internet extensive searching, I have never found a situation where they sent NVC notices and dates did not move in the coming year.

My prediction... Now as we all have confirmed that we would have around 5K-7K visas for IC in sep, the dates will move to the end of back log and from then onwards, we can see a SFM a month or couple of months each VB... below is the scenario which CO has taken to explain what would happen going forward from the chinese site... YES YES YES... i can decode the code... It says if a house have 12K income per year, the house head might want to budget 1K per month and change the number accordingly with the income...with this approach they will reach Apr 2008 before end of Q2...which is in line with NVC receipts.... i dont have the link for now... so please dont interrogate asking me for it... as i say...belief lies in the head of the beholder... read how it suites you...

[nishant2200]

My prediction... Now as we all have confirmed that we would have around 5K-7K visas for IC in sep, the dates will move to the end of back log and from then onwards, we can see a SFM a month or couple of months each VB... below is the scenario which CO has taken to explain what would happen going forward from the chinese site... YES YES YES... i can decode the code... It says if a house have 12K income per year, the house head might want to budget 1K per month and change the number accordingly with the income...with this approach they will reach Apr 2008 before end of Q2...which is in line with NVC receipts.... i dont have the link for now... so please dont interrogate asking me for it... as i say...belief lies in the head of the beholder... read how it suites you...

sogaddu, u are a GC-Pandit now with ur 200th post. congratulations.

on 'read how it suites you', I would like to say that, sure, read how it suits, but share what your mind says without bias. your heart may read what it suits, but ur mind should share only what sounds reasonable as per facts, analysis and measured interpretation.

[indiaeb2]

Hi Dreamer - Thank you for sharing the link. For me it comes to Dec 17th 2011. If this happens then i will be the happiest person .

[qesehmk]

Friends ...

Just a few thoughts that linger in my head as we are waiting for September bulletin.

1. A request to all newbies - PLEASE READ THROUGH PRIOR PAGES before you ask questions. Its ok to ask questions. But its more appropriate when you have done your part and then still have questions.

2. Another request to all newbies - If you read the information on this forum, you will find that people here have really done better work than anywhere else. So while we don't and will never discourage posting links to other site - there is a huge chance that all those other sites are not providing anything incremental value than what already is discussed here. And I am concerned about quality of discussion on this thread than web traffic redirection and such silly stuff. We are not concerned about other sites getting hits from our site. If there value there by all means - lets do it. But we request that you exercise good judgement in determining is the other site really providing ANY incremental information not available here.

3. A request to all - As we are growing, the noise indeed sometimes gets too big. So while posting anything lets ask ourselves .... does this really help somebody one step closer to establishing better clarity? We don't believe in censorship - so everybody needs to use his/her best judgement to ask whether our posts are helping somebody.

Didnt mean to sermon or preach. But only if each one of us is concerned about sharing USEFUL information - then all of us will benefit. So pardon any offense - none is intended.

Appreciate the discussion.

[soggadu]

Q... i understand what you say... But not every time does we have useful information... as for me... yes i do believe my posts help people... some help by number crunching and i contribute in a different way, no offense Q bhai... If you all think that everybody should crunch numbers and everybody should get information from CO or everybody should analyze data.... then this world should only be made of edisons but not with people who use the bulb without knowing how it works but use it to light up their lives... No offense again....

[qesehmk]

soggadu .... Point well taken. I wouldn't dispute yours or anybody else's judgement. Its your call. You are our Chief Humor Officer :)

Q... i understand what you say... But not every time does we have useful information... as for me... yes i do believe my posts help people... some help by number crunching and i contribute in a different way, no offense Q bhai... If you all think that everybody should crunch numbers and everybody should get information from CO or everybody should analyze data.... then this world should only be made of edisons but not with people who use the bulb without knowing how it works but use it to light up their lives... No offense again....


nothing new but very interesting testimony from Bob Greifeld of Nasdaq. you can also read testimony by others.
http://judiciary.senate.gov/pdf/11-7-26%20Greifeld%20Testimony.pdf
That is extremely powerful testimony. Impossible to better job than this guy. Thanks for posting!

[pch053]

My prediction... Now as we all have confirmed that we would have around 5K-7K visas for IC in sep, the dates will move to the end of back log and from then onwards, we can see a SFM a month or couple of months each VB... below is the scenario which CO has taken to explain what would happen going forward from the chinese site...
Are we now more or less certain on the 5K - 7K visas that will be allocated to EB2-I/C? Has there been any new input from CO and/or the Chinese website? Going by Spec's calculation, if we have 5K then the dates that will be cleared will be 1st week of July and 7K for EB2-I/C can clear PDs up to end of July.

[grnwtg]

Are we now more or less certain on the 5K - 7K visas that will be allocated to EB2-I/C? Has there been any new input from CO and/or the Chinese website? Going by Spec's calculation, if we have 5K then the dates that will be cleared will be 1st week of July and 7K for EB2-I/C can clear PDs up to end of July.

I went back through few posts, but dont see any collective evidence that says 5k to 7k visa for next month. Is it confirmed in Chinese website - did qblogfan confirmed it from chinese?

[yesman]

Thanks! That was helpful. I know nothing is a 100% but do you feel that there is a very high probability of my PD becoming current next year (May or June)?


yesman it depends on how terrible your situation is. I would wait till October to see if BTM happens (refer first page of thread). If it doesn't then the only time it will reach April 2008 will be May 2012 onwards. Once you become current then you can switch jobs only 6 months after filing 485. So that a total of 1 yr from Oct 2011.

Your new employer may be able to process everything within 1 yr. But that's a risk. So its your call. ..how unhappy you are today vs r you willing to take risk w new employer. If everything goes fine ... timeline wise I don't think you will lose if you change jobs.

[superdesi2100]

I don't want to create a falser rumor here - but a discussion thread on trackitt claims that a link to September visa bulletin was active on USCIS website last week and it showed the EB2 I priority date 22JUN07.

Here is the trackitt discussion thread: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/719097115/september-2011-visa-bulletin-predictions/page/last_page

Also here is the visa bulletin link that was supposedly active last week (it is not active anymore): http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf

I apologize if it is purely a prank or rumor on somebody's part.

[yesman]

nishant, You played a couple of scenarios for me very well. I'm inclined to stay put at the moment with the current employer and pursue other projects/opportunities within the company. Thanks everyone for your inputs.


I would put chances of you being current and getting EAD as 90% for next year. I would put chances of you getting green card as 50% next year. This if you stick with same job.

When you join a new employer, most employers start GC after a year, except if it's a consulting company or a small company with less strict rules, or if during hiring, you get to convince them about your situation, sometimes even set in stone place bulge. Suppose you manage to convince to start after six months, they would need to go for a recruiting effort and advertising campaign for the GC job position. Then they would file PERM labor. I am assuming this in total will take 6 months. So suppose you leave in September 2011, then in September 2012 you would have an approved PERM. Now if in September 2012, your date, April 2008, is current, which is a 50-50 chance as per me (it would be 90% few months earlier in 2012 assuming CO is doing some BTM), you can file 140 and 485 concurrently, or just file 140. Now, suppose your 140 takes 4 months to approve, then in January 2013, at which time around (few months after), I am putting 90% chance you would be current (again), and could get 485 approved or be able to file. If you had filed 485 concurrently, you would get GC in late 2012, early 2013, if not, then late mid 2013.

If staying with current employer is making your life miserable, and if you are going to get new job in a non consulting company, which shall be able to prove ability to pay and will do a bonafide recruiting campaign, then leave. Else just stick around and get done with it. One more year, you should get EAD.

ps: LOTR quote to inspire: “The quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little and it will fail. But hope remains, if friends stay true.”

[Monica12]

I don't want to create a falser rumor here - but a discussion thread on trackitt claims that a link to September visa bulletin was active on USCIS website last week and it showed the EB2 I priority date 22JUN07.

Here is the trackitt discussion thread: http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/719097115/september-2011-visa-bulletin-predictions/page/last_page

Also here is the visa bulletin link that was supposedly active last week (it is not active anymore): http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf

I apologize if it is purely a prank or rumor on somebody's part.

no ..no...this is a rumor. There is a guy on trackitt called anadprahha...or something like that, who's been chanting that date and praying to God etc...because that date was mentioned on another popular EB prediction forum. I think that he thinks that if he keeps posting this date a few 100 times, it will become true.

[nishant2200]

I dont agree that Republicans are anti immigrants... please understand the difference in opinion... anti illegal immigration is not anti immigration on the whole... when i talk to tea baggers, it really puzzles me that people at the grass root are so not aware of the plight of the legal immigrants... and they are pro legal immigration... I see a lot of rep senators introduce bills for helping legal immigration...but Dem's on the other hand are using the card w.r.t illegals and trying to gain mileage....

This was my understanding too. You are absolutely correct.

As I said earlier, it is good to see these persistent efforts. And I am serious when I say, something will happen in the next 10 years. It will be too late for a lot of us here, we would be done either way by then. But think about time few years from now, when economy is improving, there is good demand in all EB categories, also EB3 from 2002 to xyz, are able to port more easily, and most people are filing EB2 in I/C, and hence effectively SO is also less, if any to I/C. There might hence come a time when both EB3 and EB2 will be similarly stuck, in fact EB3 may fare better than EB2. This is a doomsday scenario, but not an impossible one I think. So as they say, the guy asked the old man, why are you planting mango tree, you will die before it gets fruit, the old man said, I am planting it for future generations.

[nishant2200]

no ..no...this is a rumor. There is a guy on trackitt called anadprahha...or something like that, who's been chanting that date and praying to God etc...because that date was mentioned on another popular EB prediction forum. I think that he thinks that if he keeps posting this date a few 100 times, it will become true.

I agree. It is too far fetched.

If only one could examine the web-server logs for the website, we could see if any request for http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_September2011.pdf met with a HTTP 200 or 304 :)

[Spectator]

I have moved the discussion about the Senate Committee Testimony to the General Immigration Discussion http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?52-General-Immigration-Discussion

[qblogfan]

I didn't get any new information regarding the visa number. At the same time, I would not trust their information too much. Nobody really confirmed this information. Mr.CO also provided inaccurate information to the public in the past.


I went back through few posts, but dont see any collective evidence that says 5k to 7k visa for next month. Is it confirmed in Chinese website - did qblogfan confirmed it from chinese?

[nishant2200]

On a trackitt thread, there is talk of Wipro informing its employees that they won't do EB1 unless a Division Head approves. So it seems like the big consulting companies are feeling the heat.

I would also like to say though, I looked at the immigrant visa statistics on the DOS website, and it also looks like Canada and UK also grabbing a lot of these! Looking at FY 2010, around 7k grabbed by EB1 I, I think around 2k-3k of these could be additionally saved due to above policy procedures of big indian consulting companies. Just an estimation.

[indiaeb2]

Good Morning Guys - Just wanted to share this link. someone is predicting a momement between 1-6 months for september. whats your take on this.
http://www.ezdia.com/immigration/september-2011-visa-bulletin-predictions/180/

[gc_usa]

1-6 months ???? Any one can say that. Even my 6 year old son can guess if I ask him to do so.

[gc_usa]

Good Morning Guys - Just wanted to share this link. someone is predicting a momement between 1-6 months for september. whats your take on this.
http://www.ezdia.com/immigration/september-2011-visa-bulletin-predictions/180/

1-6 months ? These sites are just generating ad revenues from this bulletin news. My Pre-K kid can guess better that this.

[grnwtg]

no ..no...this is a rumor. There is a guy on trackitt called anadprahha...or something like that, who's been chanting that date and praying to God etc...because that date was mentioned on another popular EB prediction forum. I think that he thinks that if he keeps posting this date a few 100 times, it will become true.

ha ha....every one has their own way. Probably many of us are doing poojas/prardhanas/vraths for GC.
Looking at the current scenario, it all depends on their logic and its difficult to get into their head unless some body hack uscis's Brain using B-Mail ( Brain mail) technology

[grnwtg]

July approvals slowed down?
Right now
All Nationalities = 325
India= 298

[leo07]

Folks, lets not give undue recognition to some of these forums. Unfortunately, most of those sites, including some of the paid sites, are holding our emotions hostage.

Use your own judgement to decide if the news holds any water. If you personally don't think it would, then please don't bother posting here. It's waste of time to even discuss the merits/demerits.


Good Morning Guys - Just wanted to share this link. someone is predicting a momement between 1-6 months for september. whats your take on this.
http://www.ezdia.com/immigration/september-2011-visa-bulletin-predictions/180/

[leo4ever]

I agree, there are some 20 sites on predictions if we google it. Each site publishes some random dates and big movements just to get more eye-balls. There is no logic or argument for their conclucsions (probably they write month in chits and draw one of them :-) ). I tried it few months back and believe me most of them are trash.


Folks, lets not give undue recognition to some of these forums. Unfortunately, most of those sites, including some of the paid sites, are holding our emotions hostage.

Use your own judgement to decide if the news holds any water. If you personally don't think it would, then please don't bother posting here. It's waste of time to even discuss the merits/demerits.

[indiaeb2]

i apologize if i have hurted you guys posting the link. Like you all even i wanted to see some movements and get my GC. after reading the information from the above site . i was very happy and wanted a feeling from you guys. Again iam really sorry.

[MeraNoAayega]

July approvals slowed down?
Right now
All Nationalities = 325
India= 298

the numbers look good when you compare them to may & june approvals/bulletin.

[nishant2200]

i apologize if i have hurted you guys posting the link. Like you all even i wanted to see some movements and get my GC. after reading the information from the above site . i was very happy and wanted a feeling from you guys. Again iam really sorry.

No need to apologize. You thought it's meaningful in your judgement, you posted. That's what Q said earlier. If you feel it might be helpful in your judgement, no one is stopping you.

We all learn and fine tune our judgements as time passes. Criticism if any by fellow members should be taken in that respect!

Off late, this year, I have myself seen a surge in prediction and immigration related websites. Seems "elements" have realized there is money to be made from this, and are hence doing it.

Guys, it's time. Last week of July. Let the sources awaken, let more reports, data sharing be done by USCIS, DOS, NIU (chinese organization), so that we calibrate further. As of now, it's anyone's guess.

[qesehmk]

An interesting observation about EB2I. YTD there are 885 approvals. However trackitt has ~900 pending EB2I w PD prior to 30th March 2007. Does it mean 50% applications prior to Mar 30, 2007 are yet to be processed? Or does it show how people are quite late in updating their trackitt data?

I think its a bit of both. Just a data point to consider. Don't be alarmed. Just one of those things that should keep our enthusiasm for over-optimism in check!

p.s. - The cases after 7th march are not yet current. However their proportion in the pending cases mentioned above is much less. The pending consist of cases that are current but somehow not yet approved or updated on trackitt.

[pch053]

I do think the cause of 50% pending EB2I in trackitt is a combination of both the factors that Q mentioned but I feel that many people don't update their case after approval. Many of the trackitt approvals that we see are cases that gets added after they have gotten their I485 approved. A substantial number of people don't even add their case. To know the real estimate of cases that are current but not yet approved, I guess we have to wait for the pending inventory in the Fall quarter.

[leo07]

No need for apologies... and I certainly wasn't hurt :) if it helps any, most of those guys copy the calculations, information including the acronyms from this site:)

Best of Luck!


i apologize if i have hurted you guys posting the link. Like you all even i wanted to see some movements and get my GC. after reading the information from the above site . i was very happy and wanted a feeling from you guys. Again iam really sorry.

[soggadu]

Q bhai...thoda apna source ko phone gumao yaar please...

[nishant2200]

I do think the cause of 50% pending EB2I in trackitt is a combination of both the factors that Q mentioned but I feel that many people don't update their case after approval. Many of the trackitt approvals that we see are cases that gets added after they have gotten their I485 approved. A substantial number of people don't even add their case. To know the real estimate of cases that are current but not yet approved, I guess we have to wait for the pending inventory in the Fall quarter.

Apart from one obvious observation, that there might be indeed some genuine slowdown, I have also noticed amount of people getting Medical RFE is higher as we move into 2007. Seems like the 2007 year 485 pre-adjudication was not as clean a job as earlier years.

About the slowdown if any, it might also be because of huge amount of workload due to big movement in the bulletin which took us to March 8th 2007, and also it might mean, the visa number tokens being dried up a bit, or anticipation that future movements will not be huge and USCIS can take its time processing the one's they are having. And of course, trackitt just not being accurate enough.

[bieber]

I think trackitt update is little late or may be we don't ever see their cases getting updated,

People up to mar5,2007 PD got approved and I heard several cases from every month Oct-mar getting approvals

[pch053]

Apart from one obvious observation, that there might be indeed some genuine slowdown, I have also noticed amount of people getting Medical RFE is higher as we move into 2007. Seems like the 2007 year 485 pre-adjudication was not as clean a job as earlier years.


I agree with this and one reason is that during July-Aug'07, people were allowed to submit I485 application without the medical details. I am also in that category and I submitted my I485 but couldn't finish the medical tests within time; else I would have missed the deadline. I asked about the status of my application and got a reply from NSC saying that pre-adjudication has been completed. But, I know that I have incomplete medical test reports and will get a RFE when my PD is current and my case is ready for adjudication.

[TeddyKoochu]

Here are some observations about Trackitt.
- Historically ~ 20% people do not update their profiles, I had done this research long back based on 2004 and 2003 data. So those cases that are not un-updated for EB2-I could really be unapproved or un-updated.
- On most forums people seem to be quite satisfied with the approvals, even those who are complaining are getting them now, so looks like the percentage of those who do not update their profiles has gone up steeply. If there are no unlucky member complaints then we should assume all is well.
- July had a very slow start, in any other month most people would have gotten approved far sooner, this time due to sheer numbers looks like things are slow. However based on the demand data for the Aug bulletin all Jul current cases were already erased out so irrespective of RFE all the cases have a cap number with them.
- Besides medical RFE's looks like EVL RFE counts have also gone up steeply, this may be due to the long time that has elapsed from Jul 2007.
- EB2 ROW approvals are still at 90% level from last year, however if these are factored up we may actually see lower SOFAD from EB2 ROW.
- Another interesting trend is that the number of cases in Trackitt for EB2 India for those current by the Jul bulletin is far lower in fact close to 50% that the previous year’s corresponding period.
- There are hardly EB1 cases on Trackitt showing up these days, only the next inventory can show the true picture if the EB1 backlog is really coming down.
- Let’s hope for the best in the September bulletin, the most conservative SOFAD projection is EB1 - 12K, EB2 ROW - 7K, EB5 - 7.5K, Regular Cap 5.5K ~ 32K. If we look at the actual SOFAD that has been applied we may just be 2-3K short of this mark. I believe EB1 approvals especially this month hold the key; EB2 ROW trend has been quite consistent. In reality I hope there is more SOFAD than the conservative projection, good luck to everyone.

[veni001]

Here are some observations about Trackitt.
- Historically ~ 20% people do not update their profiles, I had done this research long back based on 2004 and 2003 data. So those cases that are not un-updated for EB2-I could really be unapproved or un-updated.
- On most forums people seem to be quite satisfied with the approvals, even those who are complaining are getting them now, so looks like the percentage of those who do not update their profiles has gone up steeply. If there are no unlucky member complaints then we should assume all is well.
- July had a very slow start, in any other month most people would have gotten approved far sooner, this time due to sheer numbers looks like things are slow. However based on n the demand data for the Aug bulletin all Jul current cases were already erased out so irrespective of RFE all the cases have a cap number with them.
- Besides medical RFE's looks like EVL RFE counts have also gone up steeply, this may be due to the long time that has elapsed from Jul 2007.
- EB2 ROW approvals are still at 90% level from last year, however if these are factored up we may actually see lower SOFAD from EB2 ROW.
- Another interesting trend is that the number of cases in Trackitt for EB2 India for those current by the Jul bulletin is far lower in fact close to 50% that the previous year’s corresponding period.
- There are hardly EB1 cases on Trackitt showing up these days, only the next inventory can show the true picture if the EB1 backlog is really coming down.
- Let’s hope for the best in the September bulletin, the most conservative SOFAD projection is EB1 - 12K, EB2 ROW - 7K, EB5 - 7.5K, Regular Cap 5.5K ~ 32K. If we look at the actual SOFAD that has been applied we may just be 2-3K short of this mark. I believe EB1 approvals especially this month hold the key; EB2 ROW trend has been quite consistent. In reality I hope there is more SOFAD than the conservative projection, good luck to everyone.

Teddy,
Not sure you got a chance to look at Post 5016 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)/page201), I don't think there is increase in EB1 demand for Q3 when compared to Q1&Q2.

[leo07]

Thanks TeddyK. You are stuck to your guns:)

Can you elaborate this?
"However based on n the demand data for the Aug bulletin all Jul current cases were already erased out so irrespective of RFE all the cases have a cap number with them"

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
Not sure you got a chance to look at Post 5016 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)/page201), I don't think there is increase in EB1 demand for Q3 when compared to Q1&Q2.

Veni, thanks I just went through that post again. The more significant component of EB1 for now is the existing backlog rather than the new filings. The huge acceleration in clearing I140's will give a big impetus to EB1 cases, however as of now there seems to be no evidence of that atleast on Trackitt. Postings or otherwise are only suggesting delays in processing, I heard from one of my friends he has applied in EB1C (He has a very long and painful immigration journey almost 10 years now, now he works as Director in the company famous for EB1C filing) that EB1 approvals even for concurrently filed cases are taking 8 months. So if the agencies are unable to clear their targeted cases for EB1 in Aug then we may see slightly higher SOFAD in September. Current filing rates will be significant for the coming year.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks TeddyK. You are stuck to your guns:)

Can you elaborate this?
"However based on n the demand data for the Aug bulletin all Jul current cases were already erased out so irrespective of RFE all the cases have a cap number with them"

What I meant to say is that when DOS published the Aug bulletin demand data they seem to have subtracted 11.5K from that meaning that USCIS may have informed that that they have been able to attach a cap number or identify the cases exactly. So sooner or later these cases will be approved so we don't really need to worry about the Trackitt rates for this time period.
Unfortunately I feel that too much of SOFAD is really not left this projection matches with the lower range being given by other posters and Gurus. If you ask me my mind is with the lower range but heart is praying every moment for the best :). Wish you all the best again; I hope you sail through you are definitely in for a photo finish.

[veni001]

Veni, thanks I just went through that post again. The more significant component of EB1 for now is the existing backlog rather than the new filings. The huge acceleration in clearing I140's will give a big impetus to EB1 cases, however as of now there seems to be no evidence of that atleast on Trackitt. Postings or otherwise are only suggesting delays in processing, I heard from one of my friends he has applied in EB1C (He has a very long and painful immigration journey almost 10 years now, now he works as Director in the company famous for EB1C filing) that EB1 approvals even for concurrently filed cases are taking 8 months. So if the agencies are unable to clear their targeted cases for EB1 in Aug then we may see slightly higher SOFAD in September. Current filing rates will be significant for the coming year.

Teddy,
As we can see from the DOL document (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf) there are about 15K PERM approvals (don't have the breakdown between IC/ROWMP) in April/May2011, which reflected in i140 receipts (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=71&charttype=1) as-well. Agree there is acceleration in clearing i140 in May 2011, but we do not know what % of them are EB1/EB2ROWMP in-addition i140 data provided is completions which include both approvals & denials.

I think we need some more data points(Q3-PERM or 140 approval/denial % or july EB inventory) to get a better picture!

[gc_usa]

Teddy

Is this a possibility ?

Let's assume that DOS has 19k visas available for Aug - Sep , they hold on date movement in Aug because if they allocate 9k visas to EB2 IC they will have 10k left for EB1 for Aug - Sep. and if demand in Aug + Sep is more than 10k then they are forced to setup cutoff date to EB1 or EB2 row which can create problem for DOS.

But they only allocated few thousands in Aug and now in Sep they will allocate more to EB2 IC and move date into Mid 2008 with less visas allocated to EB1 still keep them "C" and towards middle of month just stop approving EB1 cases if they run out of visas. Again in 15 days which is start of new month / year they can resume EB1 approval.

This will serve dual intent. Building pipeline and avoiding cutoff date for EB1 & 2 ROW. Only problem is EB1 and 2 ROW will get their gc 15 days delayed.

[Pdmar08]

Nishant,
What you said about medical RFE is right. One of my friends' PD became current in last bulletin and he had missed the boat in 2007 as he was travelling. I had called him up to ask about the process (hope lives on ;) )after the date becomes current and he said that there was significant difference between medical related forms and requirements last time and what he had to go thru this time. May be they are applying the newer requirements now leading to RFEs.


Apart from one obvious observation, that there might be indeed some genuine slowdown, I have also noticed amount of people getting Medical RFE is higher as we move into 2007. Seems like the 2007 year 485 pre-adjudication was not as clean a job as earlier years.

About the slowdown if any, it might also be because of huge amount of workload due to big movement in the bulletin which took us to March 8th 2007, and also it might mean, the visa number tokens being dried up a bit, or anticipation that future movements will not be huge and USCIS can take its time processing the one's they are having. And of course, trackitt just not being accurate enough.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
As we can see from the DOL document (http://icert.doleta.gov/includes/modules/callDoc.cfm?RequestedDocument=PERM_Factsheet_6_27_ 11.pdf) there are about 15K PERM approvals (don't have the breakdown between IC/ROWMP) in April/May2011, which reflected in i140 receipts (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=71&charttype=1) as-well. Agree there is acceleration in clearing i140 in May 2011, but we do not know what % of them are EB1/EB2ROWMP in-addition i140 data provided is completions which include both approvals & denials.

I think we need some more data points(Q3-PERM or 140 approval/denial % or july EB inventory) to get a better picture!

Veni I agree with you. Somehow we need to get more statistics on denials, because theoretically if there is a slow down due to the Kazarian memo the rates may just catch up sometime in that case the contributor will be the backlog as opposed to recent filings.


Teddy

Is this a possibility ?

Let's assume that DOS has 19k visas available for Aug - Sep , they hold on date movement in Aug because if they allocate 9k visas to EB2 IC they will have 10k left for EB1 for Aug - Sep. and if demand in Aug + Sep is more than 10k then they are forced to setup cutoff date to EB1 or EB2 row which can create problem for DOS.

But they only allocated few thousands in Aug and now in Sep they will allocate more to EB2 IC and move date into Mid 2008 with less visas allocated to EB1 still keep them "C" and towards middle of month just stop approving EB1 cases if they run out of visas. Again in 15 days which is start of new month / year they can resume EB1 approval.

This will serve dual intent. Building pipeline and avoiding cutoff date for EB1 & 2 ROW. Only problem is EB1 and 2 ROW will get their gc 15 days delayed.

1. You are correct about the Aug bulletin that there may have been extremely guarded caution in moving EB2 I/C slowly as according to the rules they cannot do spillover if they have EB2 ROW and EB1 cases. In essence as you say EB2 ROW and EB1 just get delayed by a few weeks to a month. The real key is what exactly is happening in Aug and the 10 days leading to the bulletin in September, if they find that they do not have enough EB2 ROW and EB1 cases then there is a possibilility (Probability close to 5%) that all preadjudicated numbers are exhausted. I see that EB2 ROW cases are coming at the usual rate while EB1's seem to have almost disappeared on Trackitt. Another reason for BTM in September was outlined by Spec earlier is that if it does not happen in September we might have to wait till as late as May 2012 to happen. Any talk of BTM is really speculative and discretionary we can only hope for the best. IMHO there seems to be only 3-4K SOFAD left I hope there is more its good for all of us, 3-4K additional (Total 7-8K in Sep) can be really significant to catalyze BTM.

[pravara]

Here are some observations about Trackitt.
- Historically ~ 20% people do not update their profiles, I had done this research long back based on 2004 and 2003 data. So those cases that are not un-updated for EB2-I could really be unapproved or un-updated.
- On most forums people seem to be quite satisfied with the approvals, even those who are complaining are getting them now, so looks like the percentage of those who do not update their profiles has gone up steeply. If there are no unlucky member complaints then we should assume all is well.
- July had a very slow start, in any other month most people would have gotten approved far sooner, this time due to sheer numbers looks like things are slow. However based on the demand data for the Aug bulletin all Jul current cases were already erased out so irrespective of RFE all the cases have a cap number with them.
- Besides medical RFE's looks like EVL RFE counts have also gone up steeply, this may be due to the long time that has elapsed from Jul 2007.
- EB2 ROW approvals are still at 90% level from last year, however if these are factored up we may actually see lower SOFAD from EB2 ROW.
- Another interesting trend is that the number of cases in Trackitt for EB2 India for those current by the Jul bulletin is far lower in fact close to 50% that the previous year’s corresponding period.
- There are hardly EB1 cases on Trackitt showing up these days, only the next inventory can show the true picture if the EB1 backlog is really coming down.
- Let’s hope for the best in the September bulletin, the most conservative SOFAD projection is EB1 - 12K, EB2 ROW - 7K, EB5 - 7.5K, Regular Cap 5.5K ~ 32K. If we look at the actual SOFAD that has been applied we may just be 2-3K short of this mark. I believe EB1 approvals especially this month hold the key; EB2 ROW trend has been quite consistent. In reality I hope there is more SOFAD than the conservative projection, good luck to everyone.

-->Not to mention that 1 in 5 of my friends who are in GC process never heard of trackit and wouldn't care either :)

[Monica12]

-->Not to mention that 1 in 5 of my friends who are in GC process never heard of trackit and wouldn't care either :)

I tend to agree.. even though I had visited trackitt a couple of times in the past few years, I never bothered to add my case there until recently.

[neospeed]

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://niunational.org/forum/viewforum.php%3Ff%3D30%26sid%3Db48b1e0795b5feb0003 a45b4548a4891


looks like CO is saying EB3 I moved more than EB3 C becos of less usage of I in family based visas. Not sure if the translation is correct. We don't get any Family to Employment spillover right in the middle of fiscal year?

[leo07]

Thanks for clarification. This part has always been an enigma for me, as to when CIS actually reserves/assigns a number for a particular case. My understanding was that as soon as they determine that a particular case is Documentarily qualified or Pre-Adjudicated and if the dates are current+numbers available, they assign the visa number to application.

What I meant to say is that when DOS published the Aug bulletin demand data they seem to have subtracted 11.5K from that meaning that USCIS may have informed that that they have been able to attach a cap number or identify the cases exactly. So sooner or later these cases will be approved so we don't really need to worry about the Trackitt rates for this time period.
Unfortunately I feel that too much of SOFAD is really not left this projection matches with the lower range being given by other posters and Gurus. If you ask me my mind is with the lower range but heart is praying every moment for the best :). Wish you all the best again; I hope you sail through you are definitely in for a photo finish.

[Spectator]

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://niunational.org/forum/viewforum.php%3Ff%3D30%26sid%3Db48b1e0795b5feb0003 a45b4548a4891


looks like CO is saying EB3 I moved more than EB3 C becos of less usage of I in family based visas. Not sure if the translation is correct. We don't get any Family to Employment spillover right in the middle of fiscal year?neospeed,

Whilst not impossible, it seems a little implausible.

The only Country we know this happens for is South Korea, who use less than 2k FB visas a year.

India in contrast is in the top 6 of FB users of visas and hit the 7% limit last year.

In addition, since there is no actual transfer of visa numbers from FB to EB, EB3-I could only receive more than 2.8k visas at the expense of those given to EB3-ROW.

It somehow just doesn't add up, but the one month forward movement in the August VB for EB3-I was certainly real.

I admit to being slightly confused at the moment.

[qesehmk]

If you look at the Oct 2010 inventory there were hardly 3300 EB3I 485 applications for EB3I upto Jun 2002. Between porting and denials 500 can easily be covered and so 2800 is teh usual quota which should bring dates to jun 2002.

Just like you I am skeptical too. I just don;t believe India has so little FB demand that India starts consuming EB visas in EB3.

p.s. - I do think its terribly unfair that the unused FB visas for a country don't come from FB but rather EB. That just goes to show once again the lattitude/discretion DoS/USCIS exercise time and again. This is also a good area to do advocacy.



neospeed,

Whilst not impossible, it seems a little implausible.

The only Country we know this happens for is South Korea, who use less than 2k FB visas a year.

India in contrast is in the top 6 of FB users of visas and hit the 7% limit last year.

In addition, since there is no actual transfer of visa numbers from FB to EB, EB3-I could only receive more than 2.8k visas at the expense of those given to EB3-ROW.

It somehow just doesn't add up, but the one month forward movement in the August VB for EB3-I was certainly real.

I admit to being slightly confused at the moment.

[neospeed]

USCIS Releases EB-1 Statistics for FY2010 and FY2011 (.pdf 19 KB) USCIS statistics for FY2010 and FY2011, showing EB-1 receipts, approvals, denials, and RFE issuance by service center. FY2011 data is presented through July 19, 2011. AILA Doc. No. 11072860.

http://www.aila.org/RecentPosting/RecentPostingList.aspx

The above doc is posted in aila site. which might be useful for our projections. Not sure if any one on this forum got access to that doc

[Spectator]

neospeed,

Good spot!

Hopefully someone like the Oh Law Firm or Ron Gotcher will publish the data.

[gc_usa]

I read some where that there is a word out there they want to clear all pending EB1 cases before moving into new year so we may see less approval till July but in Aug/Sep they may focus more on EB1 and less spillover to India. I think it make sense for them to clear EB1 as much as possible in these two months if they have pending EB1 cases more than 10k. Because DOS can release up to 10k in first qtr of 2012 for EB1 and if they see pending demand + projected for 1st qtr demand > 10k then there is a possibility of setting cutoff date which can lead a lawsuit etc.. So DOS might try to clean all pending EB1 before going into q1. which means less spill over to EB2 IC. And we can't do anything since this spill over is not our right it just a benefit.

[rahil1]

My PD is May 02 2007. Is there a chance I would be current in next bulletin?:)

[veni001]

USCIS Releases EB-1 Statistics for FY2010 and FY2011 (.pdf 19 KB) USCIS statistics for FY2010 and FY2011, showing EB-1 receipts, approvals, denials, and RFE issuance by service center. FY2011 data is presented through July 19, 2011. AILA Doc. No. 11072860.

http://www.aila.org/RecentPosting/RecentPostingList.aspx

The above doc is posted in aila site. which might be useful for our projections. Not sure if any one on this forum got access to that doc

neospeed,
Let's hope USCIS make it available on their site, It would be helpful if we can get the approval/denial ratio.

[veni001]

My PD is May 02 2007. Is there a chance I would be current in next bulletin?:)

rahil1,
03May07 is also eagerly waiting, hope we will have the demand data/bulletin in two more weeks! :)

[nishant2200]

This maybe true also. I still think one month's movement should at least occur. And then as hypothesized by me earlier, very gradual movement until SO season, maybe one possibility positively thinking.

I will put a post on ron gotcher's forum requesting the aila eb1 info once I reach office. Btw I work 10 minutes walking distance from Ron Gotcher's office! My eye doctor is in same building as him :D


I read some where that there is a word out there they want to clear all pending EB1 cases before moving into new year so we may see less approval till July but in Aug/Sep they may focus more on EB1 and less spillover to India. I think it make sense for them to clear EB1 as much as possible in these two months if they have pending EB1 cases more than 10k. Because DOS can release up to 10k in first qtr of 2012 for EB1 and if they see pending demand + projected for 1st qtr demand > 10k then there is a possibility of setting cutoff date which can lead a lawsuit etc.. So DOS might try to clean all pending EB1 before going into q1. which means less spill over to EB2 IC. And we can't do anything since this spill over is not our right it just a benefit.

[meso129]

See if this helps for the calculations

http://blog.lucidtext.com/category/eb-5-statistics/

[TeddyKoochu]

-->Not to mention that 1 in 5 of my friends who are in GC process never heard of trackit and wouldn't care either :)


I tend to agree.. even though I had visited trackitt a couple of times in the past few years, I never bothered to add my case there until recently.

Your thoughts are pretty much in line with reality. When predictions had started the ratio of EB2 India on Trackitt to the backlog was calculated, Q had the highest at that time as 26, and many other came up with lower values down to 10. In reality we have now gone away from this model but Trackitt is still very good in estimating ROW usage.


If you look at the Oct 2010 inventory there were hardly 3300 EB3I 485 applications for EB3I upto Jun 2002. Between porting and denials 500 can easily be covered and so 2800 is teh usual quota which should bring dates to jun 2002.

That’s a great explanation, in addition since these cases are older there is higher likelihood of EVL and medical RFE's as some of these folks filed their 485's even before the Jul fiasco.


I read some where that there is a word out there they want to clear all pending EB1 cases before moving into new year so we may see less approval till July but in Aug/Sep they may focus more on EB1 and less spillover to India. I think it make sense for them to clear EB1 as much as possible in these two months if they have pending EB1 cases more than 10k. Because DOS can release up to 10k in first qtr of 2012 for EB1 and if they see pending demand + projected for 1st qtr demand > 10k then there is a possibility of setting cutoff date which can lead a lawsuit etc.. So DOS might try to clean all pending EB1 before going into q1. which means less spill over to EB2 IC. And we can't do anything since this spill over is not our right it just a benefit.

Very nicely said - "spill over is not our right it just a benefit".

[TeddyKoochu]

My PD is May 02 2007. Is there a chance I would be current in next bulletin?:)

Refer to Spec's post in Facts and Data. - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?115-How-Much-Spillover-is-Required-In-September-2011-to-Move-to-a-Particular-Cut-Off-Date

Based on this your case is virtually sure shot as even by the most conservative estimate the dates should cross your PD.

[rahil1]

thanks teddy:D

[qesehmk]

Your thoughts are pretty much in line with reality. When predictions had started the ratio of EB2 India on Trackitt to the backlog was calculated, Q had the highest at that time as 26, and many other came up with lower values down to 10. In reality we have now gone away from this model but Trackitt is still very good in estimating ROW usage.

Teddy you are right. Trackitt is pretty good ....but one need to be mindful of these things that keep moving. Those interested in using trackitt data to do some analysis on their own .. the best way to use it is always in relative terms rather than absolute.

e.g. look at EB1 this year and compare to last year's EB1 and see what the drop/increase is. Then use that multiple on prior years actual usage.

This trick is useful on almost all categories except EB4 EB5 and EB2ROW-NIW. Of course the more you try to slice and dice the data by country or any other filter.... the data starts becoming less useful. That is the reason why one needs to keep it generally at a high level.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy you are right. Trackitt is pretty good ....but one need to be mindful of these things that keep moving. Those interested in using trackitt data to do some analysis on their own .. the best way to use it is always in relative terms rather than absolute.

e.g. look at EB1 this year and compare to last year's EB1 and see what the drop/increase is. Then use that multiple on prior years actual usage.

This trick is useful on almost all categories except EB4 EB5 and EB2ROW-NIW. Of course the more you try to slice and dice the data by country or any other filter.... the data starts becoming less useful. That is the reason why one needs to keep it generally at a high level.

Q as you said the key is the best way to use it is always in relative terms rather than absolute this has been used in mine and your approaches here, I give you all credit for pioneering this approach being the first one to do so. Somehow EB1 cases have virtually dried of Trackitt that’s a bit puzzling; SOFAD though is completely at the mercy of EB1 usage though :).

[soggadu]

thanks teddy:D

rahil bhai apko sahil toh milhi jayega...not to worry aap ka aur 03May bhai ka bhi date current hona hi hien...

[qesehmk]

Yes soggadu. If my date is by end of May 2007 I will be highly anticipating to be current. Very good chance for people upto June end actually. After that it becomes dicey and at the whim of DoS / USCIS.


rahil bhai apko sahil toh milhi jayega...not to worry aap ka aur 03May bhai ka bhi date current hona hi hien...

[Monica12]

Q, as we begin the countdown towards D-day....any news from your source regarding VB release date or movement ? Please keep us posted :)

[satya1]

Someone posted the following link in trackitt on visa number usage - please check if it helps us in estimates.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

[essenel]

Hi all,

I'm a newbie and just wanted to introduce myself. I've been checking this forum for a couple of months. Recently, I have been following all the posts. While the in depth analysis goes over my head, I am understanding the bottom lines enough not to ask 'When will my PD become current? :-D Just kidding. Like most people on this forum, the green card wait and associated uncertainty is an issue that weighs on my mind, at times heavily. My PD is Aug 2007.

So having said all that, I actually have a specific question. What type of RFE is 'EVL'?

Thanks,
essenel

[Monica12]

Hi all,

I'm a newbie and just wanted to introduce myself. I've been checking this forum for a couple of months. Recently, I have been following all the posts. While the in depth analysis goes over my head, I am understanding the bottom lines enough not to ask 'When will my PD become current? :-D Just kidding. Like most people on this forum, the green card wait and associated uncertainty is an issue that weighs on my mind, at times heavily. My PD is Aug 2007.

So having said all that, I actually have a specific question. What type of RFE is 'EVL'?

Thanks,
essenel
Welcome to the forum. EVL stands for " employment verification letter"

[pch053]

When are we expecting the Sep bulletin? Will it be around 5th of Aug or will it be the following week (11th - 12 Aug)?

[TeddyKoochu]

When are we expecting the Sep bulletin? Will it be around 5th of Aug or will it be the following week (11th - 12 Aug)?

I believe the following week (11th - 12 Aug) looks more likely, it will give USCIS / DOS more time to see how things are actually moving in Aug since this is the final bulletin of the year.

[Monica12]

When are we expecting the Sep bulletin? Will it be around 5th of Aug or will it be the following week (11th - 12 Aug)?
March 2011 VB came out on the 5th... but the last few have come out around the 10th. My guess would be the 10th-12th August this time too....but I'm hoping it comes out on the 5th.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Satya. Useful information.

There are 3 pieces of information that caught my attention over first 2 Quarters:
1. 485-EB receipts and approvals (36K receipts vs 46K approvals)
2. 140-worker receipts and approvals (42K receipts vs 31K approvals)
3. 485-FB receipts and approvals (150K vs 131K)

Roughly the most conclusive is third piece which tells us there probably won't be any SPILLOVER from FB to EB next year.
The other two pieces are interesting. #1 is basically all EB1 and EB2ROW numbers. So even if you double them - that's 92K. Add 8K buffer for extra approvals. It still gives 40K SOFAD!!!! That's not counting 8K from EB5 and 5.6K EB2IC allocation.
#2 tells you why there is slowdown in consumption. The approvals are far short of receipts. And then not all 140 are eligible to file 485 (almost 13K I should say which are EB-IC and some EB3-ROW).

So is 40+8+5.6K SOFAD real? Does this mean there could be a massive movement? I think following test will tell you.

Look at trackitt consumption of EB1+EB2ROW for Oct-Mar & then compare that with Apr-Today. Of course prorate the Apr-Today to make it semi-annual. I will do it myself when have some time. But till then if some of you have time do it and lets see what we get.



Someone posted the following link in trackitt on visa number usage - please check if it helps us in estimates.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

[vishnu]

Q - the total EB allocation is 140,000 (including EB4 and 5). So why do you add the spillover from EB4 and 5 seperately?

[veni001]

The following is the breakdown i derived after going through various data sources for Q1&Q2

I140 Denials(Average EB1-2-3)

FY2011(Q1+Q2)
Completions = 35,3331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (~13%)

If we take EB1 denial rate as 25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at 10% and EB3 will be at 5%.

AOS(485) Breakdown

EB1 = 10,692 (including ROW-M-P EB2 NIW)
EB2ROWMP = 13,645
EB2I = 2,800
EB2C = 2,000
EB3 = 12,563
EB4 = 4,690
EB5 = 419
Total AOS approvals = 46,812
USCIS Data shows 45,981 (diff =1.8% )

CP Breakdown(Based on AOS Vs CP %)

EB1 = 1,253
EB2 = 599
EB3 = 3,969
EB4 = 1,735
EB5 = 978
Total CP approvals = 8,533
Total EB Usage(Q1+Q2) = AOS+CP = 55,345

I will try to post my calculations over the weekend, in the mean time if this breakdown doesn't make any sense, rip it apart!


Someone posted the following link in trackitt on visa number usage - please check if it helps us in estimates.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

satya1,
This is old info, this has been discussed about 20 pages back.

[natvyas]

Thanks Satya. Useful information.

There are 3 pieces of information that caught my attention over first 2 Quarters:
1. 485-EB receipts and approvals (36K receipts vs 46K approvals)
2. 140-worker receipts and approvals (42K receipts vs 31K approvals)
3. 485-FB receipts and approvals (150K vs 131K)

Roughly the most conclusive is third piece which tells us there probably won't be any SPILLOVER from FB to EB next year.
The other two pieces are interesting. #1 is basically all EB1 and EB2ROW numbers. So even if you double them - that's 92K. Add 8K buffer for extra approvals. It still gives 40K SOFAD!!!! That's not counting 8K from EB5 and 5.6K EB2IC allocation.
#2 tells you why there is slowdown in consumption. The approvals are far short of receipts. And then not all 140 are eligible to file 485 (almost 13K I should say which are EB-IC and some EB3-ROW).

So is 40+8+5.6K SOFAD real? Does this mean there could be a massive movement? I think following test will tell you.

Look at trackitt consumption of EB1+EB2ROW for Oct-Mar & then compare that with Apr-Today. Of course prorate the Apr-Today to make it semi-annual. I will do it myself when have some time. But till then if some of you have time do it and lets see what we get.

This can also be confirmed if we manage to get the EB1 numbers that have been posted on AILA website.

[qesehmk]

Vishnu

you are right .... can't add EB5. But certainly can add 5.6K since they are embedded in the total approvals. Also found another flaw .... it doesn't take into account EB3.

Alright so starting all over again....
36K 485 receipts. Assuming 100% approval rate and @full year = 72K.

So 72K EB1 + EB2ROW + some EB3 that become current because dates move + EB4+EB5. So total full year approvals could be max 72K + 40K (for EB3) = 112K.

That gives 28K net SOFAD. Adding 5.6K (which is alread factored in 72K above) gives us 33.6K.

So unless EB1+EB2ROW have accelerated we should be looking at ~34K SOFAD.


Q - the total EB allocation is 140,000 (including EB4 and 5). So why do you add the spillover from EB4 and 5 seperately?

[gc_usa]

Vishnu

you are right .... can't add EB5. But certainly can add 5.6K since they are embedded in the total approvals. Also found another flaw .... it doesn't take into account EB3.

Alright so starting all over again....
36K 485 receipts. Assuming 100% approval rate and @full year = 72K.

So 72K EB1 + EB2ROW + some EB3 that become current because dates move + EB4+EB5. So total full year approvals could be max 72K + 40K (for EB3) = 112K.

That gives 28K net SOFAD. Adding 5.6K (which is alread factored in 72K above) gives us 33.6K.

So unless EB1+EB2ROW have accelerated we should be looking at ~34K SOFAD.

I think you forgot CP usage for whole year. Even if you take few thousands it will bring down SOFAD.

[qesehmk]

won't that be factored into the 72K and 40k?


I think you forgot CP usage for whole year. Even if you take few thousands it will bring down SOFAD.

[Spectator]

won't that be factored into the 72K and 40k?


I think you forgot CP usage for whole year. Even if you take few thousands it will bring down SOFAD.Yes to 40k , but no to 72k.

These are USCIS figures and don't include CP. CP does not involve an I-485.

I think we did this to death earlier. The I-485 approval figures are consistent with the Chinese figures without CP to the end of April of 52,475. Since then, we believe a lot of spillover has been released and the figure (including CP) reached 121k by the end of July.

[soggadu]

So is 40+8+5.6K SOFAD real? Does this mean there could be a massive movement? I think following test will tell you.

Look at trackitt consumption of EB1+EB2ROW for Oct-Mar & then compare that with Apr-Today. Of course prorate the Apr-Today to make it semi-annual. I will do it myself when have some time. But till then if some of you have time do it and lets see what we get.

haan ji bhaiya... test bhi aap hi rakho aur answer bhi aap hi doo... aur koi chaara bhi toh nahi hein naa...

[veni001]

Vishnu

you are right .... can't add EB5. But certainly can add 5.6K since they are embedded in the total approvals. Also found another flaw .... it doesn't take into account EB3.

Alright so starting all over again....
36K 485 receipts. Assuming 100% approval rate and @full year = 72K.

So 72K EB1 + EB2ROW + some EB3 that become current because dates move + EB4+EB5. So total full year approvals could be max 72K + 40K (for EB3) = 112K.

That gives 28K net SOFAD. Adding 5.6K (which is alread factored in 72K above) gives us 33.6K.

So unless EB1+EB2ROW have accelerated we should be looking at ~34K SOFAD.

Q,
If you look at the i140 data from the same document (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf) and compare with i140 completions from USCIS dash board (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=71&charttype=1) for the same period
FY2011(Q1+Q2)
i140 Completions = 35,3331
i140 Approvals = 30,820
which gives Denials = 4,511
I140 Denial (EB1-2-3) ratio =~13%

If you take EB1 denial rate as ~25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at ~10% and EB3 will be at ~5%.

[Tomtuat]

Hi guys,

My company filed my EB2 I-140 around Feb first week and it still pending (6 months so far). The online status shows "Initial Review" and the LUD is 2/24/2011. The NSC processing time for EB2 is 4 months. As per the Trackitt I-140 tracker, may cases filed after mine are already approved. Is it usual?

[veni001]

Q

The Report says the 36 K received during Q1&Q2, how can we include 5.6K within 72K , those 5.6k were already received during 2007 and getting approved from the inventory. The diff in receipt Vs approval (36K vs 46 K) arrived from backlog approval . correct me

72k will be EB1/EB2ROWMP/EB4/EB5 estimated AOS receipts for full year and 91k will be total projected EB1-5(485) approvals, not including SOFAD but 5.6k regular EB2-IC quota.

[qesehmk]

Q,
If you look at the i140 data from the same document (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf) and compare with i140 completions from USCIS dash board (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=71&charttype=1) for the same period
FY2011(Q1+Q2)
i140 Completions = 35,3331
i140 Approvals = 30,820
which gives Denials = 4,511
I140 Denial (EB1-2-3) ratio =~13%

If you take EB1 denial rate as ~25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at ~10% and EB3 will be at ~5%.

Veni thanks. I understood 13%. Great way of looking at it. What about 25% and 10 and 5%? Whats teh logic?


won't that be factored into the 72K and 40k?

Yes to 40k , but no to 72k.

These are USCIS figures and don't include CP. CP does not involve an I-485.

I think we did this to death earlier. The I-485 approval figures are consistent with the Chinese figures without CP to the end of April of 52,475. Since then, we believe a lot of spillover has been released and the figure (including CP) reached 121k by the end of July.
Spec you are right. CP is incremental. But now that has made it complicated since CP should be at least 10K. Right?
As per beating this to death ... it always helps to look at it from multiple angles. May be we used this data source. May be I am being senile!



Q
The Report says the 36 K received during Q1&Q2, how can we include 5.6K within 72K , those 5.6k were already received during 2007 and getting approved from the inventory. The diff in receipt Vs approval (36K vs 46 K) arrived from backlog approval . correct me
The difference is backlog (ALL ... not just EB2IC though).

[veni001]

So 5.6K should not be included in the 72K right?

Kanmani,
You are ccorrect.

[qesehmk]

kanmani when you look at receipts and assume all will be approved then clearly 5.6K is outside. When you look at approvals and double them for full year then obviously 5.6K is included in that number.

Makes sense?


So 5.6K should not be included in the 72K right?

[veni001]

Veni thanks. I understood 13%. Great way of looking at it. What about 25% and 10 and 5%? Whats teh logic?



Q,
Here it is ....

From FY2011 Q1+Q2 PERM data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI)
Total Approvals=35k
IC approvals = 20k
ROWMP approvals = 15k

Using 70/30 for IC and 50/50 for ROWMP will give following EB2:EB3 breakdown
EB2 = 21.5k
EB3 = 13.5k
Total = 35k


From FY2011 i140 Receipts data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations)
Total i140 Receipts = 42K
EB1=7.0k
EB2=21.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
EB3=13.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
Total =42k

FY2011 Q1+Q2 I140 denials =4.5k (from my previous post)

Now, I am using the following logic for i140 denials

%EB1 denials>%EB2 denials>%EB3 denials, which means

4.5k = 7.0k(x%)+21.5k(y%)+13.5k(z%)
100%= 4.5k denials & x>y>z

Based on previous USCIS EB11&EB12 -i140 denial data (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) i am assuming X as 25% and solving for Y&Z

If you wish you can plug different number for X and then solve for Y & Z

Hope i am not making any blunder!

[03May07]

My PD is May 02 2007. Is there a chance I would be current in next bulletin?:)


rahil1,
03May07 is also eagerly waiting, hope we will have the demand data/bulletin in two more weeks! :)

ohhhh...my little brother rahil1...where have you been all these days!! Is it the frustration that made you speak up? Don't worry we have a good help group here.
I was all gung-ho before Aug bulletin, but not anymore - back to my zombie state of 2007-2010.
Looks like Sep bulletin will be promising for majority of us, as per gurus. (so, if you are a PWMB, no harm in checking on Immunizations appointments & costs as it varies from one civil surgeon to the other.

Also chotey bhaiyya rahil1, do you know you need to hate 01-May-07 = 01+05+07=13 => Evil #

[rahil1]

I should be your bada bhai as my PD is earlier than yours;)
Me too I was so excited abt aug... not I am phuusssssssssss....
I have already filed my 485 in 2007 waiting to file AOS for my dear wife...



ohhhh...my little brother rahil1...where have you been all these days!! Is it the frustration that made you speak up? Don't worry we have a good help group here.
I was all gung-ho before Aug bulletin, but not anymore - back to my zombie state of 2007-2010.
Looks like Sep bulletin will be promising for majority of us, as per gurus. (so, if you are a PWMB, no harm in checking on Immunizations appointments & costs as it varies from one civil surgeon to the other.

Also chotey bhaiyya rahil1, do you know you need to hate 01-May-07 = 01+05+07=13 => Evil #

[qesehmk]

Veni

That's quite an effort. If your assumptions hold then the calculations look good. I only wonder how do you solve 2 variable equation with just one set of values?

Also I think you meant "X+Y+Z is not = 100%"



Q,
Here it is ....

From FY2011 Q1+Q2 PERM data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI)
Total Approvals=35k
IC approvals = 20k
ROWMP approvals = 15k

Using 70/30 for IC and 50/50 for ROWMP will give following EB2:EB3 breakdown
EB2 = 21.5k
EB3 = 13.5k
Total = 35k


From FY2011 i140 Receipts data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-EB1-Demand-Calculations)
Total i140 Receipts = 42K
EB1=7.0k
EB2=21.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
EB3=13.5k (taking from PERM breakdown)
Total =42k

FY2011 Q1+Q2 I140 denials =4.5k (from my previous post)

Now, I am using the following logic for i140 denials

EB1 denials>EB2 denials>EB3 denials, which means

4.5k = 7.0k(x%)+21.5k(y%)+13.5k(z%)
100%= x+y+z & x>y>z

Based on previous USCIS EB11&EB12 -i140 denial data (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2be702798785e210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=cdfd2f8b69583210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) i am assuming X as 25% and solving for Y&Z

If you wish you can plug different number for X and then solve for Y & Z

Hope i am not making any blunder!

[veni001]

Veni

That's quite an effort. If your assumptions hold then the calculations look good. I only wonder how do you solve 2 variable equation with just one set of values?

Also I think you meant "X+Y+Z is not = 100%"

Q,
You are correct, 4.5K denials = 100%, i have updated my post above.
Once we assume one variable (X) we can bring it down to two variables and two equations with Y>Z constraint.

[nishant2200]

I asked on Ron Gotcher forum in morning for help with the AILA EB1 stats on FY 2010 and FY 2011. no reply so far. generally they reply fast. seems they are not going to help.

u can see my question in their forum under adjustment of status section.

[nishant2200]

Let's get back to the numbers, analysis, predictions!

fellow web crawlers, keep mining the net for data points! Lets keep on trackitt for seeing EB1 trends picking up if any.

Latest tally in my opinion: 3k to 4k movement. Per Spec's table, brings to around 15th June 2007. (Sorry Leo :) )

Quoting one of my fav Robert Browning poem here:

At times I almost dream
I too have spent a life the sages' way,
And tread once more familiar paths. Perchance
I perished in an arrogant self-reliance
Ages ago; and in that act a prayer
For one more chance went up so earnest, so
Instinct with better light let in by death,
That life was blotted out -- not so completely
But scattered wrecks enough of it remain,
Dim memories, as now, when once more seems
The goal in sight again

[leo07]

no worries...06/08/2007 :)

I'm sticking to mine still...June 8th to August 1st.


Let's get back to the numbers, analysis, predictions!

fellow web crawlers, keep mining the net for data points! Lets keep on trackitt for seeing EB1 trends picking up if any.

Latest tally in my opinion: 3k to 4k movement. Per Spec's table, brings to around 15th June 2007. (Sorry Leo :) )

Quoting one of my fav Robert Browning poem here:

At times I almost dream
I too have spent a life the sages' way,
And tread once more familiar paths. Perchance
I perished in an arrogant self-reliance
Ages ago; and in that act a prayer
For one more chance went up so earnest, so
Instinct with better light let in by death,
That life was blotted out -- not so completely
But scattered wrecks enough of it remain,
Dim memories, as now, when once more seems
The goal in sight again

[ssvp22]

Nishanth is our Srisanth.
OMG ;) This very well means that EBI will get BTM next month since all that Srisanth bring is good luck.

[nishant2200]

no worries...06/08/2007 :)

I'm sticking to mine still...June 8th to August 1st.

Leo, for some reason I thought you are on 22nd June, not 8th June. I felt actually remorseful writing 15th June, was thinking of you all the while :)

Glad you are on the 8th, and sincerely hope you can make it!

[nishant2200]

OMG ;) This very well means that EBI will get BTM next month since all that Srisanth bring is good luck.

ssvp22, I really hope that comes true. I will be more than happy to grow curly wild hair like Srisanth if there is a BTM. I will post a pic of me dancing in joy.

[veni001]

The following is the breakdown i derived after going through various data sources for Q1&Q2

I140 Denials(Average EB1-2-3)

FY2011(Q1+Q2)
Completions = 35,3331
Approvals = 30,820
Denials = 4,511 (~13%)

If we take EB1 denial rate as 25% then based on PERM breakdown EB2 will be at 10% and EB3 will be at 5%.

AOS(485) Breakdown (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics))

EB1 = 10,692 (including ROW-M-P EB2 NIW)
EB2ROWMP = 13,645
EB2I = 2,800
EB2C = 2,000
EB3 = 12,563
EB4 = 4,690
EB5 = 419
Total AOS approvals = 46,812
USCIS Data shows 45,981 (diff =1.8% )

CP Breakdown (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics))(Based on AOS Vs CP %)

EB1 = 1,253
EB2 = 599
EB3 = 3,969
EB4 = 1,735
EB5 = 978
Total CP approvals = 8,533
Total EB Usage(Q1+Q2) = AOS+CP = 55,345

I will try to post my calculations over the weekend, in the mean time if this breakdown doesn't make any sense, rip it apart!


See if this helps for the calculations

http://blog.lucidtext.com/category/eb-5-statistics/


Someone posted the following link in trackitt on visa number usage - please check if it helps us in estimates.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Let's get back to action....
After applying my i140 denial % breakdown to10-01-2010 inventory, FY2011 Q1&Q2 EB-485 receipts and i140,i360&I526 data for Q1&Q2, full year(AOS&CP) approvals = 55,345*2 = 110.6k (include 4.8 k EB2IC approvals from Q1&Q2)

This gives net SOFAD to EB2IC = 140k -(110.6 - 4.8 - 4.8) = 39k