EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[makmohan]

Over past 3 years we are talking so much about July 2007 "fiasco" and now it's amazing to see us reaching to the end of the pool that got built during that "fiasco". Hopefully, it's now turn for all PWMBs and people with PD post August 2007!

Good luck all !

[familyguy]

I am badly waiting to file 485.... I don't care about green card and its OK if it takes another 2 years, but it would be really great if I get an EAD+AP right away...


Over past 3 years we are talking so much about July 2007 "fiasco" and now it's amazing to see us reaching to the end of the pool that got built during that "fiasco". Hopefully, it's now turn for all PWMBs and people with PD post August 2007!

Good luck all !

[makmohan]

I am badly waiting to file 485.... I don't care about green card and its OK if it takes another 2 years, but it would be really great if I get an EAD+AP right away...

We all are PWBA (People Waiting for the Boat to Arrive).. hang in there..

[nishant2200]

Over past 3 years we are talking so much about July 2007 "fiasco" and now it's amazing to see us reaching to the end of the pool that got built during that "fiasco". Hopefully, it's now turn for all PWMBs and people with PD post August 2007!

Good luck all !

Over past four years!

Well said. May this be the year, let the planets align. CO, have mercy!

[qesehmk]

makmohan

I am actually going to use that terminology now on. PWBA!! Makes sense to call all those waiting to file 485!!

Thanks.


We all are PWBA (People Waiting for the Boat to Arrive).. hang in there..

[skpanda]

We all are PWBA (People Waiting for the Boat to Arrive).. hang in there..

Good one.. this should be used for all people post july 2007 fiasco

Edit: Q beat me to the punch... its a good idea to update the header with this term.

[makmohan]

makmohan

I am actually going to use that terminology now on. PWBA!! Makes sense to call all those waiting to file 485!!

Thanks.

Thanks Q! Glad I could contribute at least something.

[soggadu]

makmohan

I am actually going to use that terminology now on. PWBA!! Makes sense to call all those waiting to file 485!!

Thanks.

Very true...missed the boat is negative talk and waiting for the boat is positive hope....

[vizcard]

I am badly waiting to file 485.... I don't care about green card and its OK if it takes another 2 years, but it would be really great if I get an EAD+AP right away...

I'm with you. I would love to have my EAD and more so my wife. Thankfully I love my job but it would be nice to have some flexibility and security.

[ChampU]

PWBA - :-).. hats off to whoever who coined it.. reminds me of the ferry that takes people to Ellis Island.. the former site of naturalization..

[ChampU]

The guideline on taking in fresh applications... is in VO's words - "as much as they could clear next year". So it rules out making teh category current. But keepsthe dooropen for 6-12 months movement past Aug 2007.

I hear the boat horn:
http://www.soundsnap.com/node/57054

[qblogfan]

I am on the same boat. I want to tell you guys my miserable story. My PD is in January 2008. I had very bad luck. I started working in 2004 and stayed on the same job for 7 years already. I got another job offer in December 2005, but my current employer gave me a counter offer and promised me green card. At the same time they asked me to sign a contract that I can't leave this company until one year after the green card is approved. In April 2006, I asked my company about the progress and they told me they started posting ads on newspaper, etc. I asked again in December 2006 and they told me it's in progress. I waited to March 2007 and I didn't hear anything. I asked them again and the company told me they didn't do anything yet.............Finally I figured out that they cheated me and tried to delay my GC process as long as they could. I was so naive.........Finally I got PERM filed in January 2008. I waited for 2 years from starting this process to get a PD. The company did everything evil to control me using green card as a tool. This delay caused significant impact on my life....... I was so naive to trust the company and the truth is that they only want to use GC as a tool to control employees.


I'm with you. I would love to have my EAD and more so my wife. Thankfully I love my job but it would be nice to have some flexibility and security.

[Monica12]

I am on the same boat. I want to tell you guys my miserable story. My PD is in January 2008. I had very bad luck. I started working in 2004 and stayed on the same job for 7 years already. I got another job offer in December 2005, but my current employer gave me a counter offer and promised me green card. At the same time they asked me to sign a contract that I can't leave this company until one year after the green card is approved. In April 2006, I asked my company about the progress and they told me they started posting ads on newspaper, etc. I asked again in December 2006 and they told me it's in progress. I waited to March 2007 and I didn't hear anything. I asked them again and the company told me they didn't do anything yet.............Finally I figured out that they cheated me and tried to delay my GC process as long as they could. I was so naive.........Finally I got PERM filed in January 2008. I waited for 2 years from starting this process to get a PD. The company did everything evil to control me using green card as a tool. This delay caused significant impact on my life....... I was so naive to trust the company and the truth is that they only want to use GC as a tool to control employees.
OMG! I'm so sorry to hear this qblogfan. I was also once with a company on H1B who used a similar strategy...so I can relate.
I wonder how these people sleep at night ...?

[qblogfan]

I experienced too much pain in this company (this company is not managed by asian, but by a white man). I just want to get my green card and get out asap.

His "stratgy" caused significant impact on my life and he never gave a damn to it. I was so stupid that I signed the contract without thinking. In the contract he asked me to stay one year after GC, but he didn't list any restriction to his side such as when to start the GC, etc. I couldn't do anything, although he abused me big time.

I was so naive and thought people are all honest. The truth is so cold blooded. Until today I didn't get a copy of my I140 yet. I asked for it and the company refused to give me a copy. They told me they filed EB2 for me, but I am in serious doubt whether they did EB2 for me. I have requested a copy for my I140 through FOIA, but I am still waiting for this copy. If this copy turns out to be EB3, I will have no other choice, but go back to China immediately.


OMG! I'm so sorry to hear this qblogfan. I was also once with a company on H1B who used a similar strategy...so I can relate.
I wonder how these people sleep at night ...?

[sujan_vatrapu]

I am on the same boat. I want to tell you guys my miserable story. My PD is in January 2008. I had very bad luck. I started working in 2004 and stayed on the same job for 7 years already. I got another job offer in December 2005, but my current employer gave me a counter offer and promised me green card. At the same time they asked me to sign a contract that I can't leave this company until one year after the green card is approved. In April 2006, I asked my company about the progress and they told me they started posting ads on newspaper, etc. I asked again in December 2006 and they told me it's in progress. I waited to March 2007 and I didn't hear anything. I asked them again and the company told me they didn't do anything yet.............Finally I figured out that they cheated me and tried to delay my GC process as long as they could. I was so naive.........Finally I got PERM filed in January 2008. I waited for 2 years from starting this process to get a PD. The company did everything evil to control me using green card as a tool. This delay caused significant impact on my life....... I was so naive to trust the company and the truth is that they only want to use GC as a tool to control employees.

I am in the same boat but my employer is totally unaware of GC process and its the parent company who bought us that screwed up the process, I was in a research position which requires masters in CS but we still filed in EB3 just to be safe, my first GC process started in mar, 2005 and parent company withdrew my app in early 2006 and they told me the same in summer 2006, my boss was totally pissed off and he confronted HR dept regarding the same and they promised to start the GC process ASAP, they dint have any updated till summer 2007 at which point i quit my job and joined a startup who started my GC process in late 2008,

comint to predicitons, i hope i can file 485 in 2012, gurus is my prediction accurate?

[mesan123]

I am on the same boat. I want to tell you guys my miserable story. My PD is in January 2008. I had very bad luck. I started working in 2004 and stayed on the same job for 7 years already. I got another job offer in December 2005, but my current employer gave me a counter offer and promised me green card. At the same time they asked me to sign a contract that I can't leave this company until one year after the green card is approved. In April 2006, I asked my company about the progress and they told me they started posting ads on newspaper, etc. I asked again in December 2006 and they told me it's in progress. I waited to March 2007 and I didn't hear anything. I asked them again and the company told me they didn't do anything yet.............Finally I figured out that they cheated me and tried to delay my GC process as long as they could. I was so naive.........Finally I got PERM filed in January 2008. I waited for 2 years from starting this process to get a PD. The company did everything evil to control me using green card as a tool. This delay caused significant impact on my life....... I was so naive to trust the company and the truth is that they only want to use GC as a tool to control employees.

i am in the smae boat like you qblogfan..was supposed to start my GC in may 2007 by my employer, kept on posponing, changed to another full time mid of last year...and having priority date of feb 2011...i know my wait is another 3 years at the least before i can file my 485... :(

[Monica12]

I experienced too much pain in this company (this company is not managed by asian, but by a white man). I just want to get my green card and get out asap.

His "stratgy" caused significant impact on my life and he never gave a damn to it. I was so stupid that I signed the contract without thinking. In the contract he asked me to stay one year after GC, but he didn't list any restriction to his side such as when to start the GC, etc. I couldn't do anything, although he abused me big time.

I was so naive and thought people are all honest. The truth is so cold blooded. Until today I didn't get a copy of my I140 yet. I asked for it and the company refused to give me a copy. They told me they filed EB2 for me, but I am in serious doubt whether they did EB2 for me. I have requested a copy for my I140 through FOIA, but I am still waiting for this copy. If this copy turns out to be EB3, I will have no other choice, but go back to China immediately.

This is terrible !!!! I'm speechless :(

[qblogfan]

I wish you can get GC as soon as possible. Once we get our green card, we will not need to work/live under the company's mercy.

Some companies are real honest and treat employees well, but some companies use GC as a tool to control employees. We do have a choice to move back to our home countries, but once we get stuck in this system for so long, it's so costly to give it up.



i am in the smae boat like you qblogfan..was supposed to start my GC in may 2007 by my employer, kept on posponing, changed to another full time mid of last year...and having priority date of feb 2011...i know my wait is another 3 years at the least before i can file my 485... :(

[qblogfan]

I am sorry to hear your story. I can understand your pain.

The good thing about this forum is that we get a lot of mental support from all the folks.

Best wishes to you and your family.


I am in the same boat but my employer is totally unaware of GC process and its the parent company who bought us that screwed up the process, I was in a research position which requires masters in CS but we still filed in EB3 just to be safe, my first GC process started in mar, 2005 and parent company withdrew my app in early 2006 and they told me the same in summer 2006, my boss was totally pissed off and he confronted HR dept regarding the same and they promised to start the GC process ASAP, they dint have any updated till summer 2007 at which point i quit my job and joined a startup who started my GC process in late 2008,

comint to predicitons, i hope i can file 485 in 2012, gurus is my prediction accurate?

[ssvp22]

I am on the same boat. I want to tell you guys my miserable story. My PD is in January 2008. I had very bad luck. I started working in 2004 and stayed on the same job for 7 years already. I got another job offer in December 2005, but my current employer gave me a counter offer and promised me green card. At the same time they asked me to sign a contract that I can't leave this company until one year after the green card is approved. In April 2006, I asked my company about the progress and they told me they started posting ads on newspaper, etc. I asked again in December 2006 and they told me it's in progress. I waited to March 2007 and I didn't hear anything. I asked them again and the company told me they didn't do anything yet.............Finally I figured out that they cheated me and tried to delay my GC process as long as they could. I was so naive.........Finally I got PERM filed in January 2008. I waited for 2 years from starting this process to get a PD. The company did everything evil to control me using green card as a tool. This delay caused significant impact on my life....... I was so naive to trust the company and the truth is that they only want to use GC as a tool to control employees.

You are not alone my friend. Although my employer was good, i wasted lot of years trusting people and working hard in American companies while waiting for GC to come. All that came out of it was exploitation just cause i was on a visa. And now, situation is so bad that i dont trust anyone. Not even my family. This GC nonsense had destroyed me and my family. Sad but true.

Will be 11 years for me in US soon.

[qblogfan]

Yes, the company told me I140 is company's asset and I have no right to check or obtain a copy of it.

Luckily I got information from IV website and the Indian folks told me how to get a copy through FOIA process.

I filed my FOIA on Feb.8th, but it's still pending. I am in 528 out of 8000. I should be able to get a copy in the middle of August.

If this FOIA copy shows they filed EB3 for me, I will leave this country as soon as possible. I am 31 years old and it's not too late to move back yet. I really miss my family very much. I haven't seen my father for three years and I will have plenty of opportunities to visit my parents if I move back. It may turn out to be a good thing.


This is terrible !!!! I'm speechless :(

[ragx08]

I experienced too much pain in this company (this company is not managed by asian, but by a white man). I just want to get my green card and get out asap.

His "stratgy" caused significant impact on my life and he never gave a damn to it. I was so stupid that I signed the contract without thinking. In the contract he asked me to stay one year after GC, but he didn't list any restriction to his side such as when to start the GC, etc. I couldn't do anything, although he abused me big time.

I was so naive and thought people are all honest. The truth is so cold blooded. Until today I didn't get a copy of my I140 yet. I asked for it and the company refused to give me a copy. They told me they filed EB2 for me, but I am in serious doubt whether they did EB2 for me. I have requested a copy for my I140 through FOIA, but I am still waiting for this copy. If this copy turns out to be EB3, I will have no other choice, but go back to China immediately.

Man, unbelievable!!! I'm surprised to know that you are still honoring that contract and still working for the same guy! WHY???

[trackitgc]

:) I had to store the copy of the acronyms seperatley until I can remember them.... !!!!

[Monica12]

Yes, the company told me I140 is company's asset and I have no right to check or obtain a copy of it.

Luckily I got information from IV website and the Indian folks told me how to get a copy through FOIA process.

I filed my FOIA on Feb.8th, but it's still pending. I am in 528 out of 8000. I should be able to get a copy in the middle of August.

If this FOIA copy shows they filed EB3 for me, I will leave this country as soon as possible. I am 31 years old and it's not too late to move back yet. I really miss my family very much. I haven't seen my father for three years and I will have plenty of opportunities to visit my parents if I move back. It may turn out to be a good thing.
qblogfan, I just don't know what to say :(
I really, really hope and pray it's EB2.
I think I have tears in my eyes after hearing all these stories..(choking)

[qblogfan]

I hope you will feel better.

There are plenty of good people in the world. I got bad luck to get into this kind of situation, but I am still trying to treat people well.

I will continue to do good things for others despite of my miserable experience.



You are not alone my friend. Although my employer was good, i wasted lot of years trusting people and working hard in American companies while waiting for GC to come. All that came out of it was exploitation just cause i was on a visa. And now, situation is so bad that i dont trust anyone. Not even my family. This GC nonsense had destroyed me and my family. Sad but true.

Will be 11 years for me in US soon.

[soggadu]

Ghar Ghar ki ek hi kahani
wohi baatein sab ki jhubhani
koi peeche hein koi aage
magar sab GC ke peeche hein bhaage....

I know not the best but trying to put some words to everybdy's problems...

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your understanding of my situation.

It's not a big deal. Everything has two sides. I still want to get a green card because the life here is a little easier for me. The average income in China is still lower than US and the competition is more intensive because of the population and limited resources. But I believe I can get an average living standard there too. Plus I may get more good opportunities to have reunion with my family.

If it turns out to be EB2, I will wait for some extra time to get GC. If it turns out to be EB3, I will just pack and leave. After three weeks or so, I will find it out and make my final choice.


qblogfan, I just don't know what to say :(
I really, really hope and pray it's EB2.
I think I have tears in my eyes after hearing all these stories..(choking)

[qblogfan]

I am not working for the man who delayed my GC. My direct boss is a nice guy.

The reason why I chose to stay is that my H1B was close to 5 years when I figured out they didn't file my GC. I could not take the risk to change job at that time. Also they claimed they had paid some money to the attorney (although nothing was done) and I had to pay them in order to leave.


Man, unbelievable!!! I'm surprised to know that you are still honoring that contract and still working for the same guy! WHY???

[soggadu]

Thanks for your understanding of my situation.

It's not a big deal. Everything has two sides. I still want to get a green card because the life here is a little easier for me. The average income in China is still lower than US and the competition is more intensive because of the population and limited resources. But I believe I can get an average living standard there too. Plus I may get more good opportunities to have reunion with my family.

If it turns out to be EB2, I will wait for some extra time to get GC. If it turns out to be EB3, I will just pack and leave. After three weeks or so, I will find it out and make my final choice.

Qblogfan.. i understand it is very depressing... but are you really willing to leave if it turns out to be EB3? is all this wait only worth to leave it in middle? i would recommend you to get into a new job file for EB2 again and then get it... whats the fun in leaving Q bhai(brother)... i understand the reunion with loved one's and your situation might be different... but if you can get it to work out, i would request you to please look into other options too... remember you can always port... we will then be cursing you for being a porting applicant (lol)...

P.S. Please understand that this only applies if it turns out to be EB3 which i pray shouldnt be the case...

[Monica12]

Qblogfan.. i understand it is very depressing... but are you really willing to leave if it turns out to be EB3? is all this wait only worth to leave it in middle? i would recommend you to get into a new job file for EB2 again and then get it... whats the fun in leaving Q bhai(brother)... i understand the reunion with loved one's and your situation might be different... but if you can get it to work out, i would request you to please look into other options too... remember you can always port... we will then be cursing you for being a porting applicant (lol)...
P.S. Please understand that this only applies if it turns out to be EB3 which i pray wouldnt be the case...

Soggadu,I'm glad we can always rely on you for some laughs, buddy :)

[qblogfan]

Thank you for your advice. Yes, I will consider it and may find another job for EB2 if it turns out to be EB3.

I will keep you guys posted. I will get this copy in 3 weeks.

My company is not aware of my FOIA request. They told me I should not ask/query anything regarding PERM/140 because this is company's property. The reason why I requested FOIA is because I really need to make sure it's EB2, not EB3.

PS: I am sorry to cause a long discussion that is not related to PD prediction.



Qblogfan.. i understand it is very depressing... but are you really willing to leave if it turns out to be EB3? is all this wait only worth to leave it in middle? i would recommend you to get into a new job file for EB2 again and then get it... whats the fun in leaving Q bhai(brother)... i understand the reunion with loved one's and your situation might be different... but if you can get it to work out, i would request you to please look into other options too... remember you can always port... we will then be cursing you for being a porting applicant (lol)...

P.S. Please understand that this only applies if it turns out to be EB3 which i pray wouldnt be the case...

[soggadu]

Thank you for your advice. Yes, I will consider it and may find another job for EB2 if it turns out to be EB3.

I will keep you guys posted. I will get this copy in 3 weeks.

My company is not aware of my FOIA request. They told me I should not ask/query anything regarding PERM/140 because this is company's property. The reason why I requested FOIA is because I really need to make sure it's EB2, not EB3.

PS: I am sorry to cause a long discussion that is not related to PD prediction.

dont be sorry for everything Q bhai... if they dont like it they will delete the posts.... simple... i wish you good luck...

[nishant2200]

Thanks for your understanding of my situation.

It's not a big deal. Everything has two sides. I still want to get a green card because the life here is a little easier for me. The average income in China is still lower than US and the competition is more intensive because of the population and limited resources. But I believe I can get an average living standard there too. Plus I may get more good opportunities to have reunion with my family.

If it turns out to be EB2, I will wait for some extra time to get GC. If it turns out to be EB3, I will just pack and leave. After three weeks or so, I will find it out and make my final choice.

You can port to EB2. Don't give up. Think about it patiently.

[waiting]

Just came across this link - http://www.myprioritydate.com/ - not sure if you all know about this.

[Feb2008]

What can I say? I am so so sorry to hear your story. I am sure everybody has miserable experience in this country. That is the reason we should help each other.

Never trust what your employer told you. I had been told by my previous employer I was the top candidate when I was hired. It turns out I was their 3rd choice after two Americans declined the offer. I was also required to signed a contact for a period of time after green card. I resigned anyway after my I-140.........

Hope we all will have better life!!


Thank you for your advice. Yes, I will consider it and may find another job for EB2 if it turns out to be EB3.

I will keep you guys posted. I will get this copy in 3 weeks.

My company is not aware of my FOIA request. They told me I should not ask/query anything regarding PERM/140 because this is company's property. The reason why I requested FOIA is because I really need to make sure it's EB2, not EB3.

PS: I am sorry to cause a long discussion that is not related to PD prediction.

[superdesi2100]

Just came across this link - http://www.myprioritydate.com/ - not sure if you all know about this.

I have tried that website. It is not reliable at all. My priority date is 5/30/07 - EB2. Last I checked about a month ago, it showed that my priority date would become current by last week of September 2013! I don't know if they have updated it since then.

[soggadu]

Soggadu,I'm glad we can always rely on you for some laughs, buddy :)

cant crunch the numbers... so this is my way of contributing .... hope it is working...

[vizcard]

My Firm started my labor as an EB3 (with very good reason) but I got promoted so they re-started the labor in EB2. Due to this I missed the boat in 2007. Ended up with a PD of Aug 2008.

My brother in law came to the US in 2005...already has his GC (pre-adjudicated EB3... just became current). Timing and luck.

[vizcard]

Just came across this link - http://www.myprioritydate.com/ - not sure if you all know about this.

This does not make me feel good but que sera sera :)

[qblogfan]

Dear friends, thank you for your kind words and good suggestions.

I wish all of us can get GC and get a free/easier life.

Good luck to all EB-2/3 immigrants!


What can I say? I am so so sorry to hear your story. I am sure everybody has miserable experience in this country. That is the reason we should help each other.

Never trust what your employer told you. I had been told by my previous employer I was the top candidate when I was hired. It turns out I was their 3rd choice after two Americans declined the offer. I was also required to signed a contact for a period of time after green card. I resigned anyway after my I-140.........

Hope we all will have better life!!

[TeddyKoochu]

Dear friends, thank you for your kind words and good suggestions.

I wish all of us can get GC and get a free/easier life.

Good luck to all EB-2/3 immigrants!

With the FOIA request most importantly you will get your A#. All that is required to port is the A# to recapture the earlier date, Iam sure if you can find another employer if your case is not EB2 then you should be good to get GC by porting. Not worth going back after having toiled so much. I have a question for you though we always estimate porting for India and now I see even ROW folks are porting, how many Chinese folks are porting any idea?

[thetruealmighty]

Guys,
Am really moved by some of the sad stories from our friends. Its unfortunate to have such employers but there are good people around as well. The key is to make a list of those employers and make sure that their atrocities are known to the world. Good luck.

[PlainSpeak]

I am on the same boat. I want to tell you guys my miserable story. My PD is in January 2008. I had very bad luck. I started working in 2004 and stayed on the same job for 7 years already. I got another job offer in December 2005, but my current employer gave me a counter offer and promised me green card. At the same time they asked me to sign a contract that I can't leave this company until one year after the green card is approved. In April 2006, I asked my company about the progress and they told me they started posting ads on newspaper, etc. I asked again in December 2006 and they told me it's in progress. I waited to March 2007 and I didn't hear anything. I asked them again and the company told me they didn't do anything yet.............Finally I figured out that they cheated me and tried to delay my GC process as long as they could. I was so naive.........Finally I got PERM filed in January 2008. I waited for 2 years from starting this process to get a PD. The company did everything evil to control me using green card as a tool. This delay caused significant impact on my life....... I was so naive to trust the company and the truth is that they only want to use GC as a tool to control employees.

When you signed stating you will stay with the company for 1 year after GC why did you not ask the company to include in the same document that they will start the GC process immediatley. If you woudl have done that they would not have been able to wiggle out of the situation by delaying up your GC process by 3 years.

[soggadu]

When you signed stating you will stay with the company for 1 year after GC why did you not ask the company to include in the same document that they will start the GC process immediatley. If you woudl have done that they would not have been able to wiggle out of the situation by delaying up your GC process by 3 years.

PS... you are adding spices to his wounds( trying to translate)... "WHY" is the problem for all the problems... everybdy does mistakes... let him move on...

[PlainSpeak]

Thank you for your advice. Yes, I will consider it and may find another job for EB2 if it turns out to be EB3.

I will keep you guys posted. I will get this copy in 3 weeks.

My company is not aware of my FOIA request. They told me I should not ask/query anything regarding PERM/140 because this is company's property. The reason why I requested FOIA is because I really need to make sure it's EB2, not EB3.

PS: I am sorry to cause a long discussion that is not related to PD prediction.

Is there a law which states that the company will not tell you whether 140 is for EB2 or EB3. Yes they can deny 140 origional but i am sure you can get a copy of teh 140, plus they can deny showing 140 but they cannot deny telling you which categroy it was filed in. Make ity official in an official email ask them for copy of 140 or the cateogry filed under and see what happens

[qblogfan]

Exactly. I didn't pay attention and I thought they would start it immediately. I was so naive.

I was not smart at all. I would suggest our younger EB immigrants be more careful and don't make the same mistakes like I did.


When you signed stating you will stay with the company for 1 year after GC why did you not ask the company to include in the same document that they will start the GC process immediatley. If you woudl have done that they would not have been able to wiggle out of the situation by delaying up your GC process by 3 years.

[PlainSpeak]

What can I say? I am so so sorry to hear your story. I am sure everybody has miserable experience in this country. That is the reason we should help each other.

Never trust what your employer told you. I had been told by my previous employer I was the top candidate when I was hired. It turns out I was their 3rd choice after two Americans declined the offer. I was also required to signed a contact for a period of time after green card. I resigned anyway after my I-140.........

Hope we all will have better life!!

Never believe you are the top candidate for an job especially when you are on H1B visa. I had got selected for a new job and they stated they will provide documentataion for AC21 and suddenly out of the blue the offer was cancelled. Now when i see the ad for the same postion they ad says GC and Citizens only and thsi line was missing in the ad when i applied.

[qblogfan]

I asked, but they didn't tell me. I asked for the PERM progress and they told me it's none of my business and I should not ask/interfere with the PERM process. That's another reason I didn't ask for too many details. I have been kept in the dark for six years. I found the FOIA method and went ahead to send a request to FOIA. I will get it soon. In a word, I am the stupidest man.


Is there a law which states that the company will not tell you whether 140 is for EB2 or EB3. Yes they can deny 140 origional but i am sure you can get a copy of teh 140, plus they can deny showing 140 but they cannot deny telling you which categroy it was filed in. Make ity official in an official email ask them for copy of 140 or the cateogry filed under and see what happens

[PlainSpeak]

PS... you are adding spices to his wounds( trying to translate)... "WHY" is the problem for all the problems... everybdy does mistakes... let him move on...

Aplogies qbolgfan if this sounds like salt on the wound but the fact is stating what i stated in this specific case will be read by other people on this fourm and they at least wil be able to use that knowledge to better their situation

[PlainSpeak]

Exactly. I didn't pay attention and I thought they would start it immediately. I was so naive.

I was not smart at all. I would suggest our younger EB immigrants be more careful and don't make the same mistakes like I did.

As someone suggested try and get a EB2 upgrade if you can instead of making going back and losing all teh effort put in all the years here in USA.

[ragx08]

cant crunch the numbers... so this is my way of contributing .... hope it is working...

Working? It rocks man!!!! Keep it going :-)

[qblogfan]

There are only 5500 China EB3 before 2007.08 and very few of them are porting.

I didn't see many porting cases on MITBBS.

Most of the China-PERM are for EB2 and very few of them are EB3. Many people also returned home after 2005.

The long wait has scared many people away.


With the FOIA request most importantly you will get your A#. All that is required to port is the A# to recapture the earlier date, Iam sure if you can find another employer if your case is not EB2 then you should be good to get GC by porting. Not worth going back after having toiled so much. I have a question for you though we always estimate porting for India and now I see even ROW folks are porting, how many Chinese folks are porting any idea?

[PlainSpeak]

I asked, but they didn't tell me. I asked for the PERM progress and they told me it's none of my business and I should not ask/interfere with the PERM process. That's another reason I didn't ask for too many details. I have been kept in the dark for six years. I found the FOIA method and went ahead to send a request to FOIA. I will get it soon. In a word, I am the stupidest man.

Yes it is better to not cause too much of an agaitation expecially if you got a FOIA going on but i am surprised that a company can deny a copy of 140 if not the origional.

Any way no call to call yourself stupid. It could have happened to anyone out here.

[Feb2008]

My 1st employer( I had to keep changing jobs :)) didn't even want to file H-1b for me at the very beginning. I found out they only filed one year H-1b for me (I thought it was automatocally three years). Luckly, I was prepared and had secured a new job.
We must always always be prepared.


Never believe you are the top candidate for an job especially when you are on H1B visa. I had got selected for a new job and they stated they will provide documentataion for AC21 and suddenly out of the blue the offer was cancelled. Now when i see the ad for the same postion they ad says GC and Citizens only and thsi line was missing in the ad when i applied.

[Monica12]

I asked, but they didn't tell me. I asked for the PERM progress and they told me it's none of my business and I should not ask/interfere with the PERM process. That's another reason I didn't ask for too many details. I have been kept in the dark for six years. I found the FOIA method and went ahead to send a request to FOIA. I will get it soon. In a word, I am the stupidest man.

Nahhh... we all make mistakes, one time or another..especially when we are young. But the silver lining is that we learn from them..That's why old men are supposed to be wiser :)

[qblogfan]

No problem. I feel totally fine.

The truth is that I should be more careful, but I failed big time. It's a heavy price lesson.

The younger EB applicants should learn from my lesson.


Aplogies qbolgfan if this sounds like salt on the wound but the fact is stating what i stated in this specific case will be read by other people on this fourm and they at least wil be able to use that knowledge to better their situation

[Monica12]

Working? It rocks man!!!! Keep it going :-)

Soggadu, buddy !!!! You have another fan ....yipeeee !!! I thought I was the only one :)

[ragx08]

Never believe you are the top candidate for an job especially when you are on H1B visa. I had got selected for a new job and they stated they will provide documentataion for AC21 and suddenly out of the blue the offer was cancelled. Now when i see the ad for the same postion they ad says GC and Citizens only and thsi line was missing in the ad when i applied.

I disagree with you..... always believe that you are the best (Hum kisi se kum nahi!!!) - no mater what others think or say!!!!

[PlainSpeak]

Soggadu, buddy !!!! You have another fan ....yipeeee !!! I thought I was the only one :)

In soem language Soggadu means "Handsome" :P

[Monica12]

In soem language Soggadu means "Handsome" :P

PlainSpeak, Soggadu is probably blushing right now ..ha..haaa.

[soggadu]

In soem language Soggadu means "Handsome" :P

soggadu is a telugu word for some one flamboyant i guess, didnt think about the meaning while choosing the name, have been using this name for long time... thank you rag, mon and ps...

[soggadu]

PlainSpeak, Soggadu is probably blushing right now ..ha..haaa.

aap bhi naa....

[Monica12]

aap bhi naa....
lol!!!!!!!

[srimurthy]

qblogfan and others...
Everyone was new to the process and had their own set of trials and errors. And atleast now we have this forum and other places to follow and learn. Earlier the data available may not have been so exhaustive. Even now for every step I have to follow up with 10 mails and 20 calls to initiate a response from the employer. Life goes on and we keep fighting.

[nishant2200]

19-20 days to go. Need to make a VB release ticker.

[Monica12]

19-20 days to go. Need to make a VB release ticker.

yeah... Nishant! We need a timer... 20 days still? Damn...

[soggadu]

wow, Next month I will also complete my 10 years in US.

we both have many things in common... human beings..men..indian..waiting for gc...simillar pd...first entry at same time... dude r u sure u r not that bichada hua twin of mine... yes, i went to the khumbh mela!!!!!!...

[PlainSpeak]

yeah... Nishant! We need a timer... 20 days still? Damn...

Aati nahin .. Aati nahin .. Sammne hain magar Aati nahin .. Aati nahin ..

[soggadu]

Aati nahin .. Aati nahin .. Sammne hain magar Aati nahin .. Aati nahin ..

kuch lethein kyoun nahi...

p.s. pun intended

[Monica12]

Aati nahin .. Aati nahin .. Sammne hain magar Aati nahin .. Aati nahin ..

PlainSpeak, Sogaddu, you guys are fuunnny !!! I'm cracking up!
Chalo...till the gurus decide to banish us for trying to create a ruckus OR till the next number crunching starts OR till Sep VB comes out ..... we can atleast have some FUN!!!!
PS: Gurus PLEASE dont banish us ..LOL!

[Spectator]

Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224

I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.

[PlainSpeak]

kuch lethein kyoun nahi...

p.s. pun intended

Was referring to the next VB :p

Chingari koi badake to sawan use bhujaye
Sawan jo aag lagaye usee koun bhujaye
usee koun bhujaye ..

H1B pe life tight thi t0o company ne GC shurru ki
Company ne EB3 me kar di mujhe koun bacahye
mujhe koun bacahye ..

[valuablehurdle]

Ok, I just joined the this blog. I consider this blog more valuable than immigrationvoice.

Well, here is my story: My priority date is 04/15/2007 (EB2). I know I missed it by one day. Today, I went with an Infopass to the local office. The officer was very cordial. He said I have been pre-adjugated. However, they said the dates 'might' retrogress in the next visa bulletin. However, I am not sure whether I should believe him or not. I guess DOS decides on it. I doot think they share the information with the DHS so early.

[Monica12]

Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224

I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.
Spec, this is GREAT! I was wondering how much spillover is rquired to reach my PD . Thank you :)

[Monica12]

Was referring to the next VB :p

Chingari koi badake to sawan use bhujaye
Sawan jo aag lagaye usee koun bhujaye
usee koun bhujaye ..

H1B pe life tight thi t0o company ne GC shurru ki
Company ne EB3 me kar di mujhe koun bacahye
mujhe koun bacahye ..
LOL ! PlainSpeak, tumhe sirf CO hee bachayenge :)

[PlainSpeak]

LOL ! PlainSpeak, tumhe sirf CO hee bachayenge :)

Who is this CO you guys keep referrring too ...

[pch053]

So, if the estimate is that there are 5K - 8K spillovers is still available, the dates might move to anywhere between beginning of July to mid Aug. Porting, PWMB, etc might push back the movement by a few weeks from the above calculation.

[PlainSpeak]

Ok, I just joined the this blog. I consider this blog more valuable than immigrationvoice.

Well, here is my story: My priority date is 04/15/2007 (EB2). I know I missed it by one day. Today, I went with an Infopass to the local office. The officer was very cordial. He said I have been pre-adjugated. However, they said the dates 'might' retrogress in the next visa bulletin. However, I am not sure whether I should believe him or not. I guess DOS decides on it. I doot think they share the information with the DHS so early.

The keyword here is Might

[Monica12]

Ok, I just joined the this blog. I consider this blog more valuable than immigrationvoice.

Well, here is my story: My priority date is 04/15/2007 (EB2). I know I missed it by one day. Today, I went with an Infopass to the local office. The officer was very cordial. He said I have been pre-adjugated. However, they said the dates 'might' retrogress in the next visa bulletin. However, I am not sure whether I should believe him or not. I guess DOS decides on it. I doot think they share the information with the DHS so early.
WHAT...? OMG ! are you kidding me? I hope the Officers there don't know anything about the next VB...

[Spectator]

Who is this CO you guys keep referrring too ...PlainSpeak,

CO is an abbreviation for Charles Oppenheim, the Head of the Visa Office. He is the man who is responsible for setting the Cut Off Dates in each Visa Bulletin.

[srimurthy]

I know I am moving aways from the thread in asking this Q, but better now when the VB is not out.
A complany agreed to file H1 for my spouse on who is on H4. Does a H1 approval automatically change her status to from H4->H1, or only when we apply for a change of status that the H1 is considered active and till that time the H4 and i-94 are considered in status?

[PlainSpeak]

I know I am moving aways from the thread in asking this Q, but better now when the VB is not out.
A complany agreed to file H1 for my spouse on who is on H4. Does a H1 approval automatically change her status to from H4->H1, or only when we apply for a change of status that the H1 is considered active and till that time the H4 and i-94 are considered in status?

COS - Change of status
If H1 is approved COS is automatic.
H1 approval with I94 card at the bottom. She is good.
H1 approval with missing I94 card at the bottom. She has to go to home country for stamping and come back with stamp.
Since this is COS she will have to wait for H1B approval papers in hand with I94 before she can start working.

[srimurthy]

Thanks for the quick response.
"H1 approval with missing I94 card at the bottom". If she doesn't go back to home country for stamping does that mean H4 and I94 are valid and status is active or she is out of status?

[kd2008]

USCIS dashboard now updated up to May 2011. Massive number of I-140 approvals in May: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

[PlainSpeak]

Thanks for the quick response.
"H1 approval with missing I94 card at the bottom". If she doesn't go back to home country for stamping does that mean H4 and I94 are valid and status is active or she is out of status?

Last action rule willcome into effect. Last action rule states that which ever event happened last (latest) wil be used to determine the status of the case. In this case if 194 missing in approved H1B then she is has changed to H1B and needs to go to india to get stamping done before working and her H4 and H4 I94 is invalid. If you does nto go to india and doe snto work then she wil be on bench and out of status. In such case she can try and revert back to H4 based on your H1B. If H4 approved then H1B gets invalidated (Last Action rule) and she is back on H4

[PlainSpeak]

USCIS dashboard now updated up to May 2011. Massive number of I-140 approvals in May: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

Was this expected ?

[grnwtg]

we both have many things in common... human beings..men..indian..waiting for gc...simillar pd...first entry at same time... dude r u sure u r not that bichada hua twin of mine... yes, i went to the khumbh mela!!!!!!...

Oh My God....i too went to Khumbh Mela ...ha ha..

[srinivasj]

soggadu used to be yesteryear and late telugu hero shobhan babu nickname..he is very famous for his handsome looks and was know to be as "nuttokka jillaliki andadgadu"(most handsome person among 101 districts)...he was so attached to that name he didnt comeout in public in his later years so that people would always remember him as the handsome person...

[Monica12]

Oh My God....i too went to Khumbh Mela ...ha ha..
BREAKING NEWS: Q ke blog pe, bhai se bhai milay...chamtkar ho gaya !!!!
Congrats, grnwtg and Soggadu !!!!!! LOL !

[nishant2200]

The keyword here is Might

"Might" is always possible for reasons unknown before the fact, and in fact, used to be a standard comment in all Visa Bulletins in employment based section notes. Last few bulletins are exceptions, they don't have any notes.

[mvinayam]

Thank you for your advice. Yes, I will consider it and may find another job for EB2 if it turns out to be EB3.

I will keep you guys posted. I will get this copy in 3 weeks.

My company is not aware of my FOIA request. They told me I should not ask/query anything regarding PERM/140 because this is company's property. The reason why I requested FOIA is because I really need to make sure it's EB2, not EB3.

PS: I am sorry to cause a long discussion that is not related to PD prediction.

Hi Qblogfan,

Do you have a copy of the LCA filed for your PERM. They would have sent it to you for your signature. In that Perm you should see under what category they have filied your petition.

Btw I hope & pray they filed it under EB2. I always grib about our GC journey as we are waiting to do an interfile between spouse on our 4th labour petition provided if the date comes current after 12 yrs of US stay. So dont give up & All the Best.

[PlainSpeak]

"Might" is always possible for reasons unknown before the fact, and in fact, used to be a standard comment in all Visa Bulletins in employment based section notes. Last few bulletins are exceptions, they don't have any notes.

I would say standard comment in employment based section notes in last few Vb is missing because that way there will be no way for EB community to anticipate if CIS moves the dates in in an unexpected direction or fashion. Keeps us in the dark and we have less to go on. All predictions are great and mathematically correct but when there is no guidance in VB, CIS has more leeway to go any way they want with the VB dates.

[bieber]

USCIS dashboard now updated up to May 2011. Massive number of I-140 approvals in May: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1
you beat me, I was going to check this soon :)
Receipts are inline and approvals went up, overall pending isdown by 2k, wish they update this for June also

[soggadu]

BREAKING NEWS: Q ke blog pe, bhai se bhai milay...chamtkar ho gaya !!!!
Congrats, grnwtg and Soggadu !!!!!! LOL !

yee bandhan toh gc wait ka bandhan hein... kya tumhara bhi sirr pe baal, aakhien laal, tondh gol hein kya... oh my god... i am super excited...

[TeddyKoochu]

USCIS dashboard now updated up to May 2011. Massive number of I-140 approvals in May: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

This explains the Aug bulletin implicitly. If the overall number of I140 approvals rise the EB1 and EB2 ROW will also rise, so looks like they may focus on these categories to ensure that all the corresponding 485's are approved this FY itself. That may explain why the Aug bulletin was a bit guarded. The next inventory can give us some idea if EB2 ROW + EB1 Reduce.


Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224

I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.

Great post Spec, what a huge difference betweeen Jun and Jul. Looks like with conservative estimate the dates might just touch June.

[soggadu]

USCIS dashboard now updated up to May 2011. Massive number of I-140 approvals in May: http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

jokes apart, gurus please tell us how this new data is going to effect the 19K spare we are relying on?

[nishant2200]

jokes apart, gurus please tell us how this new data is going to effect the 19K spare we are relying on?

Your question is directed to gurus, but I will still try to put my thought here :)

The range of SO for us was 3k to 10k , in my opinion, from this 19k. So if this dashboard trend continues on, and USCIS clears the concurrently applied 485s this FY itself, then I think, we would get the bottom range of 3k approximately, and dates would barely reach June. And looks like then, for sure, wait till late Q2 or beginning Q3 for the dates to reach August 15th 2007, ideally in one move, and then the next move might range from 6 months to a year.

[soggadu]

Your question is directed to gurus, but I will still try to put my thought here :)

The range of SO for us was 3k to 10k , in my opinion, from this 19k. So if this dashboard trend continues on, and USCIS clears the concurrently applied 485s this FY itself, then I think, we would get the bottom range of 3k approximately, and dates would barely reach June. And looks like then, for sure, wait till late Q2 or beginning Q3 for the dates to reach August 15th 2007, ideally in one move, and then the next move might range from 6 months to a year.

i know i shouldnt keep my hopes high... hope it reach Apr 15 and more atleast... a very good friend of mine needs it more than me as of now...

P.S. N bhai... you are no less than guru...

[nishant2200]

i know i shouldnt keep my hopes high... hope it reach Apr 15 and more atleast... a very good friend of mine needs it more than me as of now...

P.S. N bhai... you are no less than guru...

sogaddu, I am flattered! If only my H1B mazdoori job or my naughty 3 year old would let me spend more time on analysis and crunching numbers, I could maybe try reach the heights of Spec, Teddy, Veni, Q.... :)

damn the EB1 and EB2 ROW, what bad economy, all these dudes are applying merrily .. grrrrr... just kidding :)

[leo07]

I agree that it's a cautious move from CIS to not let EB2IC trump deserving EB2ROW & EB1 applications visas.

However, they don't have to be cautious in the last month of the FY, i.e Sept bulletin. 30 days is barely sufficient for any PWMB to get through system. At the same time, 60 days is also a tight for Eb1/EB2-ROW to get cleared.

I believe that DOS planned this throttle of flow for August-VB much before. Since they allotted sofad more or less equally for July-August-Septmeber in 2010, they tried to front-load this year. I still think there's at least 4-7 k of visas for EB2IC for the month of September alone.


Your question is directed to gurus, but I will still try to put my thought here :)

The range of SO for us was 3k to 10k , in my opinion, from this 19k. So if this dashboard trend continues on, and USCIS clears the concurrently applied 485s this FY itself, then I think, we would get the bottom range of 3k approximately, and dates would barely reach June. And looks like then, for sure, wait till late Q2 or beginning Q3 for the dates to reach August 15th 2007, ideally in one move, and then the next move might range from 6 months to a year.

[Monica12]

i know i shouldnt keep my hopes high... hope it reach Apr 15 and more atleast... a very good friend of mine needs it more than me as of now...

P.S. N bhai... you are no less than guru...
Nishant, you are doing a tremendous job , dude! Thank you!
Soggadu, Please make that May 1, 2007. Oops ! sorry, we have a friend here who is keeping note of everyone who mentions that date, so let's make it atleast June,2007 :)
But buddy, for you we will wish for November, 2007

[nishant2200]

Nishant, you are doing a tremendous job , dude! Thank you!
Soggadu, Please make that May 1, 2007. Oops ! sorry, we have a friend here who is keeping note of everyone who mentions that date, so let's make it atleast June,2007 :)
But buddy, for you we will wish for November, 2007

:D

ELROND: Andúril, Flame of the West, forged from the Shards of Narsil.
ARAGORN: Sauron will not have forgotten the Sword of Elendil. The blade that was broken shall return to Minas Tirith.

ELROND: The man who can wield the power of this sword can summon to him an army more deadly than any that walks this earth. Put aside the Ranger. Become who you were born to be. Take the Dimholt road.

ELROND: Ónen i-Estel Edain. (I give hope to Men)

ARAGORN: Ú-chebin estel anim. (I keep none for myself.)

[leo07]

Someone correct me,
If Dates were to move from
April 15th to June 15th 2007++++++++~2800 additional visas are needed/
to July 1st 2007+++++++++++++++++~3400 additional visa numbers are needed
to August 1st 2007++++++++++++++~5000

[soggadu]

Someone correct me,
If Dates were to move from
April 15th to June 15th 2007++++++++~2800 additional visas are needed/
to July 1st 2007+++++++++++++++++~3400 additional visa numbers are needed
to August 1st 2007++++++++++++++~5000

leo in the previous page spec has given the numbers for each month and scenario...

[soggadu]

nishant, you are doing a tremendous job , dude! Thank you!
Soggadu, please make that may 1, 2007. Oops ! Sorry, we have a friend here who is keeping note of everyone who mentions that date, so let's make it atleast june,2007 :)
but buddy, for you we will wish for november, 2007

amen amen amen

[leo07]

Thanks. How did I miss that :)--but my numbers are little off...I trust Spec more than self at this point :)

leo in the previous page spec has given the numbers for each month and scenario...

[03May07]

Nishant, you are doing a tremendous job , dude! Thank you!
Soggadu, Please make that May 1, 2007. Oops ! sorry, we have a friend here who is keeping note of everyone who mentions that date, so let's make it atleast June,2007 :)
But buddy, for you we will wish for November, 2007

Yup, very much here!! I read every post, refreshing every few minutes, although not logged in all the time. I'm one of those guests who is lurking around most of the time.

Spec's data posted a little while ago, is keeping my hopes alive for this FY. (I promised myself that I will not get disappointed whatever the cut off date might be in Sept Bulletin)

Q must be really busy today trying to meet his/her project deadline at work.

[Monica12]

Yup, very much here!! I read every post, refreshing every few minutes, although not logged in all the time. I'm one of those guests who is lurking around most of the time.

Spec's data posted a little while ago, is keeping my hopes alive for this FY. (I promised myself that I will not get disappointed whatever the cut off date might be in Sept Bulletin)

Q must be really busy today trying to meet his/her project deadline at work.
Hey 03May07, we missed you. Bet you were secretly making note of everyone who mentioned May 1,2007.
Dude, my date is near yours and I sincerely wish we get current (electric) soon!
Yes, Q is away so we can play.... :cool:

[imechanix]

Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224

I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.

Spec,

Thanks, this is useful info.

Qs. Does the PWMB numbers matter for CUD in next VB since it takes atleast few months to make it documentarily qualified & then added to the demand.

Thanks.

P.S: Recently noise-to-signal ratio in this thread is increasing unlike past.

[leo07]

If so, NO, PWMB's does not matter for for moving future cut-off dates. If there were PWMB's before April 15th, 2007, they'd obviously apply b/n August 1st through August 12th or whenever VB is released and that 10 days is not enough to make a dent.


Spec,

Thanks, this is useful info.

Qs. Does the PWMB numbers matter for CUD in next VB since it takes atleast few months to make it documentarily qualified & then added to the demand.

Thanks.

P.S: Recently noise-to-signal ratio in this thread is increasing unlike past.

[veni001]

I heard it from a very reliable source that USCIS wants to clear all the pending EB1/EB2 ROW before end of this FY...thats the main reason for the dismal show of Aug movement...

I heard this info last month itself and refused to believe till Aug. bulletin. So I dont have much hope for Sep. bulletin, if the same holds ture...

Unless the current i140 processing rate doubles, it is not a possibility. At the same time we may not have much SOFAD left for the remainder of FY.

[leo07]

It absolutely makes sense that CIS wants to clear all the EB1/2ROW back log. However, there are not enough of them, as per inventory data released along with August VB.

I appreciate your comment, it definitely will make us little more cautious.


I heard it from a very reliable source that USCIS wants to clear all the pending EB1/EB2 ROW before end of this FY...thats the main reason for the dismal show of Aug movement...

I heard this info last month itself and refused to believe till Aug. bulletin. So I dont have much hope for Sep. bulletin, if the same holds ture...

[leo07]

Exactly my point. I'm in a tight-spot, where my 140 is pending, I can't even hope that they process 140 faster:)

I have to write a complicated sql query to God in my prayers:)


Unless the current i140 processing rate doubles, it is not a possibility. At the same time we may not have much SOFAD left for the remainder of FY.

[ragx08]

P.S: Recently noise-to-signal ratio in this thread is increasing unlike past.

When the signal is not clear (not sure whats going to happen in Sep) and the noise is entertaining - lets enjoy it :-)

[ragx08]

Exactly my point. I'm in a tight-spot, where my 140 is pending, I can't even hope that they process 140 faster:)

I have to write a complicated sql query to God in my prayers:)

Don't make the query too complicated lest God takes his own time to process it - adding more delay :-)

[gchopeful123]

Hey Nishant,
Good to see that u are a LOTR fan as well. Here's what Eomer wud have said :)

“Look for BTM in SEP VB, but do not trust to hope for it has foresaken these lands.”
-- Eomer, The Two Towers

PS: now dont ask me why my username is gchopeful !!!



:D

ELROND: Andúril, Flame of the West, forged from the Shards of Narsil.
ARAGORN: Sauron will not have forgotten the Sword of Elendil. The blade that was broken shall return to Minas Tirith.

ELROND: The man who can wield the power of this sword can summon to him an army more deadly than any that walks this earth. Put aside the Ranger. Become who you were born to be. Take the Dimholt road.

ELROND: Ónen i-Estel Edain. (I give hope to Men)

ARAGORN: Ú-chebin estel anim. (I keep none for myself.)

[nishant2200]

Hey Nishant,
Good to see that u are a LOTR fan as well. Here's what Eomer wud have said :)

“Look for BTM in SEP VB, but do not trust to hope for it has foresaken these lands.”
-- Eomer, The Two Towers

PS: now dont ask me why my username is gchopeful !!!

Touche!

Fearful of digressing more, Tolkien is my passion.

We all can relate though to the title of the first chapter of the LOTR saga: "A long awaited party"

Btw, my company lawyer says, he is very hopeful that next FY, dates will reach 12/2007. Kind of nothing extraordinary news, but thought would share.

[angryclubs]

my inbox has an email from uscis stating 485 application was approved yesterday. my new avatar reflects my mood.
Thanks to everyone in this forum for keeping my hopes alive in this long awful journey.

PD: March 7, 2007
NSC
Opened SR on Friday, July 15. Do not know if sr helped or not. I wish you all good luck and hoping that everyone gets through without any hassles or delays.

[natvyas]

Spec/Q/ Veni

Will the surge in I-140 approvals have an impact on the latest predicitions of 4-10K visas for Sept?

Regards
Nat

[veni001]

Spec/Q/ Veni

Will the surge in I-140 approvals have an impact on the latest predicitions of 4-10K visas for Sept?

Regards
Nat

natvyas,
Yes, we discussed this before, any increase in i140 processing (approvals/denials) will have its(-ve/+ve) impact on SOFAD. USCIS dash board only provides the number of applications processed in each month, does not include approval/denial ratio or percentages. Also based on PERM(Q1&Q2) data and June 485 pending inventory only 1/3rd of the pending i140 are EB1/Eb2ROW-M-P.

[Spectator]

Spec/Q/ Veni

Will the surge in I-140 approvals have an impact on the latest predicitions of 4-10K visas for Sept?

Regards
NatNat,

Not an easy question to answer.

If you are talking about the surge shown in the recent reports, that is several months ago. It is quite possible that those are already accounted for, since EB2-ROW performed well in Apr-Jun 2011 according to Trackitt.

For the figures to have increased from 58k (52k + CP) at the end of April to 121k at the end of July, suggests increased approvals somewhere outside of the spillover given to EB2-IC.

It still needs watching for signs of a new surge.

[kd2008]

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

TSC and NSC are now back on track with I-485 processing time of 4 months.

I-140 processing delay is still quite a bit. So the surge in approvals has only been st start of things. We may see quite a large volume of approvals in coming months.

This was expected given the 70K PERM approval surge of last year and its continuation this year.

On trackitt we see regular I-140 from April 2011 being processed so the processing times need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

[qesehmk]

My god ... public is in full swing out here. Its hardly a few hours i haven't posted!

First of all Spec your table is good. Might be a good idea to copy paste in the header if you wish so. Would also be helpful since somebody complained about noise to signal ratio - so that if somebody is not interested in general discussion / personal stories or whatevere tehy can go to either header or FACTS section.



You are not alone my friend. Although my employer was good, i wasted lot of years trusting people and working hard in American companies while waiting for GC to come. All that came out of it was exploitation just cause i was on a visa. And now, situation is so bad that i dont trust anyone. Not even my family. This GC nonsense had destroyed me and my family. Sad but true.

Will be 11 years for me in US soon.
ssvp .... felt sad reading what you wrote. You need to put things in perspective and hold onto the most important things and most likely GC wouldn't even figure in top 5. I may not be qualified to advise you ... but just my friendly 2 cents.


Ok, I just joined the this blog. I consider this blog more valuable than immigrationvoice.

Well, here is my story: My priority date is 04/15/2007 (EB2). I know I missed it by one day. Today, I went with an Infopass to the local office. The officer was very cordial. He said I have been pre-adjugated. However, they said the dates 'might' retrogress in the next visa bulletin. However, I am not sure whether I should believe him or not. I guess DOS decides on it. I doot think they share the information with the DHS so early.
As multiple people said .. "might" ? Yes. Will? No.



However, they don't have to be cautious in the last month of the FY, i.e Sept bulletin. 30 days is barely sufficient for any PWMB to get through system.
Leo ... while that is true, my judgement is that DoS' preference is to do SFM in general. Its possible they will make BTM as well - but as I said ... given how they have tried to establish visibility and coordination with USCIS ... SFM goes better with the DoS policy implementation.



P.S: Recently noise-to-signal ratio in this thread is increasing unlike past.
point well taken IM. But one of the key things that we can and we should try to do is empathize. None of us can get a GC to anybody. But visibility matters and seeing others share experience matters. Just yesterday one of you contacted me and said that because of the information he received here he made a case for promotion and his boss already recommended him for a promotion. So while what you say is true ... i think it is important for people to vent their feelings and share common experiences/information.

Appreciate your patience. If you are time pressed you can always go to header and FACTS section.

[soggadu]

Nat,

Not an easy question to answer.

If you are talking about the surge shown in the recent reports, that is several months ago. It is quite possible that those are already accounted for, since EB2-ROW performed well in Apr-Jun 2011 according to Trackitt.

For the figures to have increased from 58k (52k + CP) at the end of April to 121k at the end of July, suggests increased approvals somewhere outside of the spillover given to EB2-IC.

It still needs watching for signs of a new surge.

Spec i agree with the above statement and makes me feel strongly that we would have 19K still left to play with...

[iamdeb]

Spec i agree with the above statement and makes me feel strongly that we would have 19K still left to play with...

Just curious to know if there is any chance of EB2 being current temporarily in the near future?

[bieber]

I have the following doubts ........

Do all Row population start their GC ( initiate to start ) in their first year of H1b?

Is there any correlation between low H1b quota usage and Spillover within the same year ?
If they start in 1st year, it will be most likely EB3
Generally companies (non consulting and most of the ROW is not into that) take 2 years time to start the process, The co-relation between h1b quota and EB exists for India (for new filings)

[bieber]

Just curious to know if there is any chance of EB2 being current temporarily in the near future?Highly unlikely, miracle needed

[soggadu]

Just curious to know if there is any chance of EB2 being current temporarily in the near future?

I am very positive that Eb2 wont be current anytime soon. Once 2007 backlog is cleared Eb2 still has lot of applications to deal with. Going into next year the SOFAD itself will be less and it is all about Sustained movement going forward with a possibility of STM ( short temp movements, <1 yr is short ) as needed...

[soggadu]

Soggadu I too like your sense of humour
But can't follow u in Hindi , add eng version also pls

JJ bhai... i will note this point going forward...

[nishant2200]

I am very positive that Eb2 wont be current anytime soon. Once 2007 backlog is cleared Eb2 still has lot of applications to deal with. Going into next year the SOFAD itself will be less and it is all about Sustained movement going forward with a possibility of STM ( short temp movements, <1 yr is short ) as needed...

Very well summarized. I agree.

[soggadu]

I have the following doubts ........

Do all Row population start their GC ( initiate to start ) in their first year of H1b?

Is there any correlation between low H1b quota usage and Spillover within the same year ?

i dont think spillover from Eb1/EB2 ROW = Less number of H1B used by those categories... even if they apply for 485 in their first year... It is happening because of new rules applied for approving 140's and pending 140's...

[Spectator]

Spec your table is good. Might be a good idea to copy paste in the header if you wish so. Would also be helpful since somebody complained about noise to signal ratio - so that if somebody is not interested in general discussion / personal stories or whatevere tehy can go to either header or FACTS section.Q,

It exceeded the maximum character count when I tried to put it in the header, so I have put it in FACTS & DATA http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?115-How-Much-Spillover-is-Required-In-September-2011-to-Move-to-a-Particular-Cut-Off-Date

[grnwtg]

If they start in 1st year, it will be most likely EB3
Generally companies (non consulting and most of the ROW is not into that) take 2 years time to start the process, The co-relation between h1b quota and EB exists for India (for new filings)

I heard of lot of Russian origin/Pakistan origin/other european origin consulting companies acting like Desi consultancies.
Some of them probably might start GC process in 1 year.
But i am not sure how many people apply GC from these companies.

[nayekal]

Q, Good to see that site is back up and running.
What caused this issue. Can it be prevented or can the down time be reduced in the future if similar problem arises.

I am not sure it happened to any one else, but I got DB Error until last 10 minutes.

[qesehmk]

i think its the hosting service. it happened 2 weeks back too.


Q, Good to see that site is back up and running.
What caused this issue. Can it be prevented or can the down time be reduced in the future if similar problem arises.

I am not sure it happened to any one else, but I got DB Error until last 10 minutes.

[nishant2200]

It might be a software upgrade. I noticed that for first time, when I clicked on thread main link, it took me directly to the last page last post I had last looked at

Powered by vBulletin™ Version 4.0.6

was it less than 4.0.6 earlier, don't know.

or maybe it's always been like this, and I never noticed.

[leo07]

I agree. CIS/DOS being Govt orgs, open to questions from congress and other groups alike, would want to do SFM.

Next question is: What might be SFM

Remaining sofad for EB2IC + 3800??

Remaining sofad for September, depending on who you ask is ranging from 3k - 10k on the forum.

so is it decent enough to define SFM(Sustainable Forward Movement) as: 6.8k to 13.8k worth of movement?

Best!




Leo ... while that is true, my judgement is that DoS' preference is to do SFM in general. Its possible they will make BTM as well - but as I said ... given how they have tried to establish visibility and coordination with USCIS ... SFM goes better with the DoS policy implementation.

[srimurthy]

The site was down and even I could not access, great its back up now.

********
Jun 2011
Year --EB1 ---EB2C ---EB2I --EB2ROW ---EB3C ---EB3I --EB3M ---EB3P --EB3ROW
2002 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 ------0 -----25 -----0 ------0 -------0
2003 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 -----25 --6,900 -----0 ------0 ------50
2004 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 -----50 -19,000 ----25 -----25 ------75
2005 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 --2,075 -33,050 ---550 -----50 -----100
2006 ----0 ------0 ------0 -------0 --3,800 -42,125 -1,925 --2,725 ---9,200
2007 ----0 --3,675 -10,425 -------0 --5,000 -53,250 -3,725 -15,300 --30,550
2008 ----0 --9,200 -20,225 -------0 ------- ------- ------ ------- --------
2011 ----0 --9,250 -20,350 -----125 --5,550 -57,450 -4,550 -17,775 --38,650

**********
One Q, in the facts and data for the demand data present it shows no data for 2009 and 2010. Just captured the June details. Doesn't that reflect the right picture and there is no demand for EB2 or EB3 during this period or was it a miss? As earlier 2010 data shows there was demand for 2010 and not for 2009.

Does it imply people applying in 2011 will have less wait time?

[qesehmk]

Good question. What is SFM.
For us SFM is one that never retrogresses. However DoS is nearing the Aug 2007 cliff and must replenish inventory. Theoretically they may progress a month or two each month. However, I do not know if that is their preference.

What CO seems to have said is that (not hist exact words) - movememnt would be necessary generate enough demand equivalent to next years' possible visa availability. So yes its possible that he will do a quick BTM and then keep moving VB date slowly. The BTM could be upto 1 yr or 1.5 yrs. It seems highly unlikely that they will make it C.


I agree. CIS/DOS being Govt orgs, open to questions from congress and other groups alike, would want to do SFM.

Next question is: What might be SFM

Remaining sofad for EB2IC + 3800??

Remaining sofad for September, depending on who you ask is ranging from 3k - 10k on the forum.

so is it decent enough to define SFM(Sustainable Forward Movement) as: 6.8k to 13.8k worth of movement?

Best!

[leo07]

I agree that C is ruled out. BTM, not so sure about it. Because, internally they may not talk/refer in terms of year(s) movement but look at the Demand & supply instead.

Thanks for rephrasing CO,it definitely implies SFM. Assuming replenishing visas as Not their priority, because without sufficient ammo to backup they could be in trouble, what do you think SFM would be in terms of visa numbers? ( or a formula :) )

Less important: Can you point to CO's quote, only if it's online and you know off the top of your head:)
In that sense SFM

Good question. What is SFM.
For us SFM is one that never retrogresses. However DoS is nearing the Aug 2007 cliff and must replenish inventory. Theoretically they may progress a month or two each month. However, I do not know if that is their preference.

What CO seems to have said is that (not hist exact words) - movememnt would be necessary generate enough demand equivalent to next years' possible visa availability. So yes its possible that he will do a quick BTM and then keep moving VB date slowly. The BTM could be upto 1 yr or 1.5 yrs. It seems highly unlikely that they will make it C.

[qesehmk]

Leo .... SFM would be different at different time. During normal months it would be either zero or a few weeks. During spillover season it would be 2-3-4-6 months.

The quote was mentioned in one of those chinese webpages.
I agree that C is ruled out. BTM, not so sure about it. Because, internally they may not talk/refer in terms of year(s) movement but look at the Demand & supply instead.

Thanks for rephrasing CO,it definitely implies SFM. Assuming replenishing visas as Not their priority, because without sufficient ammo to backup they could be in trouble, what do you think SFM would be in terms of visa numbers? ( or a formula :) )

Less important: Can you point to CO's quote, only if it's online and you know off the top of your head:)
In that sense SFM

[Spectator]

Less important: Can you point to CO's quote, only if it's online and you know off the top of your head:)
Leo,

The quote is on something like page 182 here and originally on mitbbs.com


Mr Oppenheim (Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS) said that

Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur.

I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs.

That information will then be compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.

[nishant2200]

Leo .... SFM would be different at different time. During normal months it would be either zero or a few weeks. During spillover season it would be 2-3-4-6 months.

The quote was mentioned in one of those chinese webpages.

An important thing to keep in mind is SFM with pre-adjudicated apps vs SFM with new apps which have not even made in yet. I think you can never have SFM with new apps scenario, there will always be a BTM, the amount of big we don't know.

[nayekal]

Irrespective of whether it is SFM or BTM, irrespective of what CO says right now, they are supposed to take fresh I485 apps for EB2I&C until Dec 2007 before Dec 2011.
Otherwise, they will be at a loss of not being able assign visa numbers for any kind of spill over for next FY 2012.
By taking new apps by Dec 2011, they will have enough time to process them (4-6 months duration) and be ready to assign visa numbers. If they don't do it right now and if SOFAD is close to 15 - 20 k, then there is a greater possibility of spill over to EB3, which is not that bad, but will eventually force them to make EB2I&C current against their own wishes. If that's what they have to do next year, then why not do it right now.

[vizcard]

Nishant
It may be semantics but SFM implies that there won't be retrogression (as I understand it). So it could work for new applications as well.

Q- maybe you can correct me but as I understand
SFM = Small move (1Q at a time?) -> Hold -> Adjudicate
BTM = Major move (a year at a time?) -> Retrogress -> Adjudicate

[leo07]

Spec, Thanks for the link. I also agree that SFM would vary depending on the time-frame we are looking at. my question is more related to the last month of fy, more like stemming from CO's quote.



An important thing to keep in mind is SFM with pre-adjudicated apps vs SFM with new apps which have not even made in yet. I think you can never have SFM with new apps scenario, there will always be a BTM, the amount of big we don't know.

Nishanth, if we keep the reference as 'numbers' available as opposed to monthly movement, then pre-adj or not does not matter. We can add that filter on top, if need be. But, in general, I agree that Pre-Adj matters for dates-movement. I'm more talking about visa-numbers being available...



The quote is on something like page 182 here and originally on mitbbs.com

[nishant2200]

Nishant
It may be semantics but SFM implies that there won't be retrogression (as I understand it). So it could work for new applications as well.

Q- maybe you can correct me but as I understand
SFM = Small move (1Q at a time?) -> Hold -> Adjudicate
BTM = Major move (a year at a time?) -> Retrogress -> Adjudicate

If the small move is 1Q, then I may agree with you. I was thinking more on lines of 4-5 weeks which would just not give them enough ammo to work with. It maybe possible. And the only reason why they would do that I think is because of communication between DOS and USCIS, and USCIS not ready to accept a swarm of applications. In 2007, since there was lack of communication, we know what DOS did. They made it current.

I have been trying to read CO's words for the umpteenth time, to try to see what's going on in his mind. And frankly, it goes one way or the other. Sometimes I think he means go for a year, grab and retrogress, but this is what I think with heart, with mind when I think, I feel he will more likely to do in batches of few months and see how goes. Like 1Q as you said.

ps: hopefully its 2Q and I can get in :D

[vizcard]

If the small move is 1Q, then I may agree with you. I was thinking more on lines of 4-5 weeks which would just not give them enough ammo to work with. It maybe possible. And the only reason why they would do that I think is because of communication between DOS and USCIS, and USCIS not ready to accept a swarm of applications. In 2007, since there was lack of communication, we know what DOS did. They made it current.

I have been trying to read CO's words for the umpteenth time, to try to see what's going on in his mind. And frankly, it goes one way or the other. Sometimes I think he means go for a year, grab and retrogress, but this is what I think with heart, with mind when I think, I feel he will more likely to do in batches of few months and see how goes. Like 1Q as you said.

ps: hopefully its 2Q and I can get in :D

I'm hoping its till Aug 22 2008 ....... so I can get in :)

[RRRRRR]

Hi Q,SPEC,T & Others

I have been following this forum and appreciate all the hard work put in by you guys. Thanks for all the information & Calculations you have been providing regarding the GC Process....:)

Thanks

[nishant2200]

Spec, Thanks for the link. I also agree that SFM would vary depending on the time-frame we are looking at. my question is more related to the last month of fy, more like stemming from CO's quote.




Nishanth, if we keep the reference as 'numbers' available as opposed to monthly movement, then pre-adj or not does not matter. We can add that filter on top, if need be. But, in general, I agree that Pre-Adj matters for dates-movement. I'm more talking about visa-numbers being available...

Leo, let us know your thoughts on what you interpret when CO says, " the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for use during FY-2012,". Will he base that on the SOFAD this year, will he drill down to factors like backlog of EB1, EB2 ROW, economy improvement signals, increased 140 filings. I am trying to think on this sentence by CO a lot, it's a very important one.

The wordings of the quotes by CO, frankly, speaking, look quite genuine, and sound as if they would come from a important guarded official. thanks to our chinese friends.

[harick]

Q and other gurus, Do you think using post #3 to add any additional information is a good idea?

Thanks


Q,

It exceeded the maximum character count when I tried to put it in the header, so I have put it in FACTS & DATA http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?115-How-Much-Spillover-is-Required-In-September-2011-to-Move-to-a-Particular-Cut-Off-Date

[nishant2200]

btw, the fiasco where in the link to August visa bulletin was put and then removed , on OH law firm's website (google and find it), this is the reason put for it:

07/12/2011: August 2011 Visa Bulletin Link Restored

The August Visa Bulletin was released this morning, but later the link was broken. This problem has been fixed by the State Department. It appears that while they reset up the link into a different line to give a room for future release of September Visa Bulletin, the link was temporarily removed

[natvyas]

I may be hung up on the I-140 processing information that has come through from the dashboards but here is another scenario....

Given the I-140 filings and approvals the CO might draw a conclusion that there will be little to none SOFAD for EB2 I/C next year and hence wouldnt see the need for SFM or BTM this year.

[nishant2200]

I'm hoping its till Aug 22 2008 ....... so I can get in :)

:)

one more thing, for all the people who have PDs on 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd, this is a very nightmarish possibility that PD gets to that date, and they have to wait due to one day.

mine is on an 8th ...

[nishant2200]

I may be hung up on the I-140 processing information that has come through from the dashboards but here is another scenario....

Given the I-140 filings and approvals the CO might draw a conclusion that there will be little to none SOFAD for EB2 I/C next year and hence wouldnt see the need for SFM or BTM this year.

I think in this case, he would still go for at least 1Q movement. He don't want to be caught with pants down later on in the FY. I frankly, don't think, that he will think there will be little or none SOFAD, given the fact that since last three years we are having SO.

[natvyas]

:)

one more thing, for all the people who have PDs on 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd, this is a very nightmarish possibility that PD gets to that date, and they have to wait due to one day.

mine is on an 8th ...

Those individuals should see the silver lining which is the next time the date moves it will definitely cross their PD date. I know its easier said than done.

Regards
Nat

[leo07]

"Remaining sofad for EB2IC + 3800??

Remaining sofad for September, depending on who you ask is ranging from 3k - 10k on the forum.

so is it decent enough to define SFM(Sustainable Forward Movement) as: 6.8k to 13.8k worth of movement?"

As far as CO's quote, I think he will look at what's sustainable for a year, plain 2800*2 for IC. Not sure, if he can/will/want to extrapolate the sofad for entire fy 2012 so early. That was my interpretation. ( with my masala obviosuly :))

My initial number 3800 was a typo, I meant 2800 only for I or 5600 for IC and it is for September bulletin. September bulletin is a special case for the entire year, because CO will have some liberty to move the dates forward. Come October, he strictly have to move by 250-270 numbers per month.


Leo, let us know your thoughts on what you interpret when CO says, " the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for use during FY-2012,". Will he base that on the SOFAD this year, will he drill down to factors like backlog of EB1, EB2 ROW, economy improvement signals, increased 140 filings. I am trying to think on this sentence by CO a lot, it's a very important one.

The wordings of the quotes by CO, frankly, speaking, look quite genuine, and sound as if they would come from a important guarded official. thanks to our chinese friends.

[leo07]

I can't agree more with you on this ..mine is June 8th 2007. I haven't been lucky so far.

:)

one more thing, for all the people who have PDs on 1st, 8th, 15th, 22nd, this is a very nightmarish possibility that PD gets to that date, and they have to wait due to one day.

mine is on an 8th ...

[soggadu]

My PD is on 22 ... Abb mein kya karoon... Didn't get a chance to choose to get on to the earth, my skin color, my tongue, my religion, my first toy , my sippie cup and not even the PD... Damn ittttt.....

[shaumack]

One thing to think about is whether reduction in I-485 processing time back to 4 months by Texas Service Center after clearing some good backlog from past few months, is it an indication of USCIS getting ready for some big influx of applications during September?

[neospeed]

Any new news from mitbbs ? Hard to read those threads using translator (:

[MeraNoAayega]

Irrespective of whether it is SFM or BTM, irrespective of what CO says right now, they are supposed to take fresh I485 apps for EB2I&C until Dec 2007 before Dec 2011.
Otherwise, they will be at a loss of not being able assign visa numbers for any kind of spill over for next FY 2012.
By taking new apps by Dec 2011, they will have enough time to process them (4-6 months duration) and be ready to assign visa numbers. If they don't do it right now and if SOFAD is close to 15 - 20 k, then there is a greater possibility of spill over to EB3, which is not that bad, but will eventually force them to make EB2I&C current against their own wishes. If that's what they have to do next year, then why not do it right now.

I still don't understand how visas will be wasted... In case USCIS cannot approve EB2 then EB2 visas wil ltrickle down to EB3....:cool:

[soggadu]

I still don't understand how visas will be wasted... In case USCIS cannot approve EB2 then EB2 visas wil ltrickle down to EB3....:cool:

for this EB2 on the whole have to be current which is very unrealistic at this point...

[MeraNoAayega]

for this EB2 on the whole have to be current which is very unrealistic at this point...

but is realistic in Q4 2012... :)

[soggadu]

but is realistic in Q4 2012... :)

kya uncle(for fun) aap bhi... 2011 mein hi itna mushkil ho raha hein... but i think it would be more difficult for 2012 as SOFAD would be lesser than this year...

[PlainSpeak]

for this EB2 on the whole have to be current which is very unrealistic at this point...

If there are no EB2 cases to process visas, then the numbers trickle down to EB3, and for that to happen why does EB2 need to be current. Even if EB2 is current the visa numbers cannot be used by EB2 because visas numbers are assigned after adjudication is complete and EB2 becoming current does not make the apps eligible for visa given the 1 month time frame (end of year October) left to use the visas

[soggadu]

If there are no EB2 cases to process visas, then the numbers trickle down to EB3, and for that to happen why does EB2 need to be current. Even if EB2 is current the visa numbers cannot be used by EB2 because visas numbers are assigned after adjudication is complete and EB2 becoming current does not make the apps eligible for visa given the 1 month time frame (end of year October) left to use the visas

bhaiya... Eb2 woh nadi hein jo kabhi sukha nahi reh sak tha... we have seen people getting approved in 2 months once they file 485... look at numbers from spec (FACTS AND DATA)... loads to clear... phir PWBA ... phir neendien vunda ne vaali porting... lagta nahi ki khaali padega EB2 in near future...

[qesehmk]

Nishant
It may be semantics but SFM implies that there won't be retrogression (as I understand it). So it could work for new applications as well.

Q- maybe you can correct me but as I understand
SFM = Small move (1Q at a time?) -> Hold -> Adjudicate
BTM = Major move (a year at a time?) -> Retrogress -> Adjudicate
Agree. This is good.


Hi Q,SPEC,T & Others

I have been following this forum and appreciate all the hard work put in by you guys. Thanks for all the information & Calculations you have been providing regarding the GC Process....:)

Thanks
Welcome to the forum to you and all those who have recently joined.


Q and other gurus, Do you think using post #3 to add any additional information is a good idea?

Thanks
Of course ... Spec Teddy Veni what do you think guys?

[TeddyKoochu]

One thing to think about is whether reduction in I-485 processing time back to 4 months by Texas Service Center after clearing some good backlog from past few months, is it an indication of USCIS getting ready for some big influx of applications during September?

This couldmean either way, it may also mean that they have a good hold of the 485 backlog and they can clean up more in the last2 months it couldmean as many EB1 and EB2 ROW. Shorter processing time would favour the current categories over the preadjudicated cases of the retrogressed ones because here potentially they have a higher chance of approving the cases from categories that are current with only the left over numbers going as spillover.


=Mr Oppenheim (Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS) said that

Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur.

I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs.

That information will then be compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.

Spec this statement may also imply that the movement may not necessarily be BTM it could well be small steps in order to comply with 81% for the first 3 quarters, 19% in the last 3 using say previous 3 months as reference and taking small demand several times. It could be multiple capsules of SFM except for the fact that it may take time say 2-3 months to adjudicate 485, this may well be the reason for streamlining 485 process. If its ok can we call this term CSFM – Capsules of Sustainable forward movement.

[whythewait]

Thanks Spectator for the following data.

Does it make sense to estimate the EB2-IC date movements for FY2012 based on an estimated spillover data (using I-140 approval data)?

#########################
Originally Posted by Spectator
Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224

I hope you find it useful, since various numbers have been suggested for spillover in September.

[neospeed]

This couldmean either way, it may also mean that they have a good hold of the 485 backlog and they can clean up more in the last2 months it couldmean as many EB1 and EB2 ROW. Shorter processing time would favour the current categories over the preadjudicated cases of the retrogressed ones because here potentially they have a higher chance of approving the cases from categories that are current with only the left over numbers going as spillover.



Spec this statement may also imply that the movement may not necessarily be BTM it could well be small steps in order to comply with 81% for the first 3 quarters, 19% in the last 3 using say previous 3 months as reference and taking small demand several times. It could be multiple capsules of SFM except for the fact that it may take time say 2-3 months to adjudicate 485, this may well be the reason for streamlining 485 process. If its ok can we call this term CSFM – Capsules of Sustainable forward movement.

If we look back 2009 and 2010 thats what happened (CSFM), they never moved the dates back (Retrogress). Probably that is long term approach also. PWMB (untill it reaches aug 15th) and porting providing the neccesary cushion of not wasting any visas and they will intake new ones in capsules.

Most of the cases of EB2 I/C only waiting on I-485's which usually takes 4 months to process, cis and dos will be able to react fast if things change at the end of third quater of fy 2012.

[Spectator]

Q and other gurus, Do you think using post #3 to add any additional information is a good idea?

Thanksharick,

Good idea.

I have added the table to post #3 as well. Hopefully people should be able to find it in one location or the other.

[Spectator]

Spec this statement may also imply that the movement may not necessarily be BTM it could well be small steps in order to comply with 81% for the first 3 quarters, 19% in the last 3 using say previous 3 months as reference and taking small demand several times. It could be multiple capsules of SFM except for the fact that it may take time say 2-3 months to adjudicate 485, this may well be the reason for streamlining 485 process. If its ok can we call this term CSFM – Capsules of Sustainable forward movement.Teddy,

I agree it can be read either way. If you take the phrase "begin advancing the cut-off date", that implies doing it in steps.

PS Even I am starting to forget what some of the acronyms stand for!

[sandeep11]

This couldmean either way, it may also mean that they have a good hold of the 485 backlog and they can clean up more in the last2 months it couldmean as many EB1 and EB2 ROW. Shorter processing time would favour the current categories over the preadjudicated cases of the retrogressed ones because here potentially they have a higher chance of approving the cases from categories that are current with only the left over numbers going as spillover.



Spec this statement may also imply that the movement may not necessarily be BTM it could well be small steps in order to comply with 81% for the first 3 quarters, 19% in the last 3 using say previous 3 months as reference and taking small demand several times. It could be multiple capsules of SFM except for the fact that it may take time say 2-3 months to adjudicate 485, this may well be the reason for streamlining 485 process. If its ok can we call this term CSFM – Capsules of Sustainable forward movement.

"I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs."

Why does he have to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending. He can always ask for the already approved list, isn't it? Am I missing something here?

[qesehmk]

I took that as a good possibility of making a BTM equivalent to 1 Yr supply of visas after factoring in future x (may be 9) months of non-EB2IC demand.


"I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs."

Why does he have to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending. He can always ask for the already approved list, isn't it? Am I missing something here?

[TeddyKoochu]

"I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs."

Why does he have to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending. He can always ask for the already approved list, isn't it? Am I missing something here?

This is more like communication between different govt departments its USCIS which approved the I140's but DOS where CO is the big boss that assigns the visa numbers.

[sandeep11]

I took that as a good possibility of making a BTM equivalent to 1 Yr supply of visas after factoring in future x (may be 9) months of non-EB2IC demand.

Thanks Q, so he meant Non-EB2IC pending numbers.

[qesehmk]

no no no ...

think this way. The EB2IC 140 demand is huge. His visa numbers are 140K. So if he were to make a move based on 140s that are ready to go into adjustment mode, he already has more than 140K possible applicants. But he cant move dates by that much because throughout the year he has to maintain the country quota etc. So what he is going to do is - my best guess but nonetheless - take a realistic measure of non-EB2IC non-EB3 demand first. And then stack 40K for EB3 on top of that. Then everything else that remains he is going to possibly consider the EB2IC dates to cover that much ground. In other words he will move the EB2IC dates just enough to generate demand for next years SOFAD.Once he takes them in then he will retrogress and then throuhout year will make SFM.

But again this is just one interpretation. Who knows what will happen!



Thanks Q, so he meant Non-EB2IC pending numbers.

[cantwaitlonger]

Following is an excerpt from I-140 instruction sheet on USCIS website. It says at the time of filing and not at the time of approval.

"Information on Spouse and All Children of the Person for Whom You are Filing

Part 7 of Form I-140 requests information about dependent spouse and children of the alien beneficiary of the petition to assist in visa processing and in order for USCIS to better determine the demand for employment-based immigrant visas at the time of filing of the Form I-140 petition.

[leo07]

CSFM is for post October 2011, depending upon the inventory levels as of October 1st 2011 obviously. This is what's been happening for last 3 years. The story-line could be slightly different, if CIS runs out of the inventory.(chances??)

TK, are you saying CSFM for September as well? I think we are trying to interpret CO's statement in different time frames, for september month alone and for the entire fy 2012?

Best!


This couldmean either way, it may also mean that they have a good hold of the 485 backlog and they can clean up more in the last2 months it couldmean as many EB1 and EB2 ROW. Shorter processing time would favour the current categories over the preadjudicated cases of the retrogressed ones because here potentially they have a higher chance of approving the cases from categories that are current with only the left over numbers going as spillover.



Spec this statement may also imply that the movement may not necessarily be BTM it could well be small steps in order to comply with 81% for the first 3 quarters, 19% in the last 3 using say previous 3 months as reference and taking small demand several times. It could be multiple capsules of SFM except for the fact that it may take time say 2-3 months to adjudicate 485, this may well be the reason for streamlining 485 process. If its ok can we call this term CSFM – Capsules of Sustainable forward movement.

[leo07]

IMHO, this is to ensure that no EB2IC trumps a deserving EB2ROW.

"I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs."

Why does he have to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending. He can always ask for the already approved list, isn't it? Am I missing something here?

[Spectator]

"I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs."

Why does he have to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending. He can always ask for the already approved list, isn't it? Am I missing something here?
I took that to mean the number of approved I-140 pending with USCIS with a PD of 15 Aug 07 or later.

USCIS have previously said they do not capture any information on Category, PD and Country of Chargeability until the I-140 is adjudicated.


In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory.

No one knows for sure whether USCIS have fully compiled a list of Approved I-140 by Category, PD and CofC. It took them long enough to compile one for I-485.

I am almost certain one does not exist for I-140 that have yet to be adjudicated.

[leo07]

This was my interpretation as well...as applicable to September vb. Not sure about the retrogression though, he'll gradually catchup with the monthly allocation, without actually moving the dates until next May.
no no no ...

think this way. The EB2IC 140 demand is huge. His visa numbers are 140K. So if he were to make a move based on 140s that are ready to go into adjustment mode, he already has more than 140K possible applicants. But he cant move dates by that much because throughout the year he has to maintain the country quota etc. So what he is going to do is - my best guess but nonetheless - take a realistic measure of non-EB2IC non-EB3 demand first. And then stack 40K for EB3 on top of that. Then everything else that remains he is going to possibly consider the EB2IC dates to cover that much ground. In other words he will move the EB2IC dates just enough to generate demand for next years SOFAD.Once he takes them in then he will retrogress and then throuhout year will make SFM.

But again this is just one interpretation. Who knows what will happen!

[nishant2200]

Following is an excerpt from I-140 instruction sheet on USCIS website. It says at the time of filing and not at the time of approval.

"Information on Spouse and All Children of the Person for Whom You are Filing

Part 7 of Form I-140 requests information about dependent spouse and children of the alien beneficiary of the petition to assist in visa processing and in order for USCIS to better determine the demand for employment-based immigrant visas at the time of filing of the Form I-140 petition.

this is in fact, a really great find. thank you.

[veni001]

Following is an excerpt from I-140 instruction sheet on USCIS website. It says at the time of filing and not at the time of approval.

"Information on Spouse and All Children of the Person for Whom You are Filing

Part 7 of Form I-140 requests information about dependent spouse and children of the alien beneficiary of the petition to assist in visa processing and in order for USCIS to better determine the demand for employment-based immigrant visas at the time of filing of the Form I-140 petition.

"only if the alien beneficiary is married", I believe good chunk of EB2 advanced degree applicants may not be married at the time of applying i140.
Example: I am not married at the time of my i140 filing.

[veni001]

Agree. This is good.

Of course ... Spec Teddy Veni what do you think guys?


harick,

Good idea.

I have added the table to post #3 as well. Hopefully people should be able to find it in one location or the other.

Agree, it's a good idea.

[myfr66]

FYI. Guys it is confirmed from mitbbs that the well-discussed "19k" figure reduced to less than 7K for EB2 for Sept only. It is not nearly enough to clear the prior "Wave" numbers. Sorry but it may mean no BTM this year, I guess.

[pch053]

If that's the case, I think there will be hardly a few weeks to a month of forward movement and the likely dates for EB2-I/C will be anywhere between 1st May and 1st June.

[BamBam]

Hello all, This is my first post on this forum. Thank you very much for all that you do here. I feel that I know most of you, they way you answer, the way you react, etc. In short, I feel that I am in a good company of friends. I have been following this thread for a few months now and watched all the major milestones. For the last couple of days I did not read here. Like a novel, I bookmark every time I visit and am done reading and then continue from there during my subsequent visit. What prompted me today to register and finally speak up is the post by qblogfan. I am really sorry that you are in a situation that you are in. Unless you are in a God forsaken state, most of the states have right to work laws. The BS contract that your employer made you sign may in some cases be deemed as illegal. Just because your company lawyer is in bed with this will not make it an legal. There are a lot of unscrupulous lawyers out there. For a hundred or two, you can have your contract examined by an Employment lawyer and they should be able to tell you if the contract would hold water. Stick it to the man, man! There is no point in working for such a company. They cannot force you to pay money for the fees spent till now. When you resign and leave, if they hold the paycheck, it is illegal. You can sue them for it. You can complain to DOL, etc. There are options. As I said before, stick it to the man!

Good luck!


I experienced too much pain in this company (this company is not managed by asian, but by a white man). I just want to get my green card and get out asap.

His "stratgy" caused significant impact on my life and he never gave a damn to it. I was so stupid that I signed the contract without thinking. In the contract he asked me to stay one year after GC, but he didn't list any restriction to his side such as when to start the GC, etc. I couldn't do anything, although he abused me big time.

I was so naive and thought people are all honest. The truth is so cold blooded. Until today I didn't get a copy of my I140 yet. I asked for it and the company refused to give me a copy. They told me they filed EB2 for me, but I am in serious doubt whether they did EB2 for me. I have requested a copy for my I140 through FOIA, but I am still waiting for this copy. If this copy turns out to be EB3, I will have no other choice, but go back to China immediately.

[shivarajan]

FYI. Guys it is confirmed from mitbbs that the well-discussed "19k" figure reduced to less than 7K for EB2 for Sept only. It is not nearly enough to clear the prior "Wave" numbers. Sorry but it may mean no BTM this year, I guess.



Honeymoon ain't even started yet and bride ran away!

:p

[natvyas]

FYI. Guys it is confirmed from mitbbs that the well-discussed "19k" figure reduced to less than 7K for EB2 for Sept only. It is not nearly enough to clear the prior "Wave" numbers. Sorry but it may mean no BTM this year, I guess.

19k was for the whole of EB community and not just for EB2. per the discussions
it was concluded that it was for aug and sept.

[Spectator]

FYI. Guys it is confirmed from mitbbs that the well-discussed "19k" figure reduced to less than 7K for EB2 for Sept only. It is not nearly enough to clear the prior "Wave" numbers. Sorry but it may mean no BTM this year, I guess.myfr66,

Any chance of posting a link to the thread(s) on mitbbs.com where this was discussed?

I had a look, but couldn't find anything beyond the original threads.

Thanks.

[harick]

Thank you Spec, Can you also add a comment at the end of post #1 that more information available in post #3 just to make sure people scroll down there.

I have already referred to that table many times, today when myfr66 quoted the available number reduced down to 7K I went back to refer your table to see where the cut of date might end. Thank you for putting this table together.


harick,

Good idea.

I have added the table to post #3 as well. Hopefully people should be able to find it in one location or the other.

[soggadu]

Honeymoon ain't even started yet and bride ran away!

:p

sorry dude... but here we are happy... one less dependent visa number for GC ;-) ... jokes apart... this news is still waiting for authenticity approval from fab 4... dont worry, rumours float around...

[Spectator]

Thank you Spec, Can you also add a comment at the end of post #1 that more information available in post #3 just to make sure people scroll down there.

I have already referred to that table many times, today when myfr66 quoted the available number reduced down to 7K I went back to refer your table to see where the cut of date might end. Thank you for putting this table together.harick,

Glad you find it useful. Post #1 updated to refer to it.

[harick]

I wanted to post this for some time, I like your quotaion "Without an irritant, there can be no pearl". I am thinking about adding a improvised version to my profile like "Without a movement, there can be no GC"


harick,

Glad you find it useful. Post #1 updated to refer to it.

[meso129]

My bad, i didn't notice the numbers were only for India and i was looknig at wrong column.


Spec

I appreciate the number crunching here but for some reason I am trying to co-relate it, since the demand prior to 2008 is 6400 and they have known demand until Aug 15 (july fiasco) but for some reason it doesn't make sense 6400 v/s 8256. the 6400 includes both cis and nvc numbers combined.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

#############################################


Originally Posted by Spectator
Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224

[TeddyKoochu]

CSFM is for post October 2011, depending upon the inventory levels as of October 1st 2011 obviously. This is what's been happening for last 3 years. The story-line could be slightly different, if CIS runs out of the inventory.(chances??)

TK, are you saying CSFM for September as well? I think we are trying to interpret CO's statement in different time frames, for september month alone and for the entire fy 2012?

Best!

My estimation for September is a little conservative because I feel we have almost run out of SOFAD, I feel that there is absolutely no chance of the inventory running out. IMHO the SOFAD that we could see in the September bulletin may just be ~ 3K this will push the dates likely to the range 01-JUN-2011 to 08-JUN-2011 (Based on Spec's table). I wish you and all PWMB's/PWBA's the very best, looks like you will have a touch and go case I sincerely wish you are on the better side.

I agree with you only BTM can happen in September or for that matter any time to their discretion, CO's statement is really intended for next year. CSFM or any form of SFM will happen in the coming year after they have made an assessment. One critical thing would be how fast can I485 be processed, veni has provided 1 example of 2 months, if however we see many constant examples of 2-3 months range then it will be CSFM / SFM and not the BTM approach. It’s really wait and watch and a little bit of luck. When the new year starts the rates of approval will be like an early lead, comparable or lower approval rates for EB1 and EB2 ROW will be catalyst for anything to happen earlier.

[leo07]

We'll have to take into account total demand before 2008, which is 10,450.

Which btw, will NOT include PWMB after march 8th 2007 and spouses and children if any to the original 485 applications.


My bad, i didn't notice the numbers were only for India and i was looknig at wrong column.


Spec

I appreciate the number crunching here but for some reason I am trying to co-relate it, since the demand prior to 2008 is 6400 and they have known demand until Aug 15 (july fiasco) but for some reason it doesn't make sense 6400 v/s 8256. the 6400 includes both cis and nvc numbers combined.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

#############################################


Originally Posted by Spectator
Here is a table that shows how much spillover is required in September to reach a particular Cut Off Date (CUD).

It is based purely on the numbers in the USCIS Inventory as at June 2011.

It does not include any Porting or PWMB numbers that might be required, nor the small number of CP cases, but gives a rough idea of where the CUD might move to for a given spillover.

-- CUD -- -- China -- India -- Total --- Diff
22-Apr-07 ---- 138 ---- 318 ---- 456 ---- 456
01-May-07 ---- 336 ---- 773 -- 1,109 ---- 653
08-May-07 ---- 453 -- 1,014 -- 1,467 ---- 358
15-May-07 ---- 571 -- 1,255 -- 1,826 ---- 359
22-May-07 ---- 688 -- 1,497 -- 2,185 ---- 359
01-Jun-07 ---- 855 -- 1,842 -- 2,697 ---- 512
08-Jun-07 ---- 982 -- 2,139 -- 3,121 ---- 424
15-Jun-07 -- 1,109 -- 2,436 -- 3,545 ---- 424
22-Jun-07 -- 1,237 -- 2,733 -- 3,970 ---- 425
01-Jul-07 -- 1,400 -- 3,116 -- 4,516 ---- 546
08-Jul-07 -- 1,788 -- 3,477 -- 5,265 ---- 749
15-Jul-07 -- 2,176 -- 3,839 -- 6,015 ---- 750
22-Jul-07 -- 2,564 -- 4,200 -- 6,764 ---- 749
01-Aug-07 -- 3,118 -- 4,717 -- 7,835 -- 1,071
08-Aug-07 -- 3,197 -- 4,835 -- 8,032 ---- 197
15-Aug-07 -- 3,286 -- 4,970 -- 8,256 ---- 224

[sandeep11]

no no no ...

think this way. The EB2IC 140 demand is huge. His visa numbers are 140K. So if he were to make a move based on 140s that are ready to go into adjustment mode, he already has more than 140K possible applicants. But he cant move dates by that much because throughout the year he has to maintain the country quota etc. So what he is going to do is - my best guess but nonetheless - take a realistic measure of non-EB2IC non-EB3 demand first. And then stack 40K for EB3 on top of that. Then everything else that remains he is going to possibly consider the EB2IC dates to cover that much ground. In other words he will move the EB2IC dates just enough to generate demand for next years SOFAD.Once he takes them in then he will retrogress and then throuhout year will make SFM.

But again this is just one interpretation. Who knows what will happen!

Thanks Q once gain for your detailed explanantion. Let us hope he would go this route.

But I believe that he would prefer SFM (a month or two in the first few months and bump it up to 4-5 months in the last Q) for the reason that they would want to stream line the 485 process with all the mess they had for the last few years. The important question remains though is that with the SFM way would they be sure not to waste any numbers.

[nishant2200]

My estimation for September is a little conservative because I feel we have almost run out of SOFAD, I feel that there is absolutely no chance of the inventory running out. IMHO the SOFAD that we could see in the September bulletin may just be ~ 3K this will push the dates likely to the range 01-JUN-2011 to 08-JUN-2011 (Based on Spec's table). I wish you and all PWMB's/PWBA's the very best, looks like you will have a touch and go case I sincerely wish you are on the better side.

I agree with you only BTM can happen in September or for that matter any time to their discretion, CO's statement is really intended for next year. CSFM or any form of SFM will happen in the coming year after they have made an assessment. One critical thing would be how fast can I485 be processed, veni has provided 1 example of 2 months, if however we see many constant examples of 2-3 months range then it will be CSFM / SFM and not the BTM approach. It’s really wait and watch and a little bit of luck. When the new year starts the rates of approval will be like an early lead, comparable or lower approval rates for EB1 and EB2 ROW will be catalyst for anything to happen earlier.

Extremely well said. Makes complete sense.

[nishant2200]

btw, for those of you who want to find out comparable salaries being given in comparable companies or titles, positions etc, I found a website salaryquest.com, what these guys have done is grabbed the publicly available labor and PERM data for H visas and GC (you can get txt as well as mdb and data structure also explained on http://www.flcdatacenter.com/ and they have put it in their Database, and made search available against it.

I found it really really interesting, it is very genuine, I found my own stuff in it.

Might help give an insight on how much to ask employer in next raise, or if the employer is fleecing you, or if changing job, what these guys are already giving to foreign immigrants!

[leo07]

Thanks TK.

I can see your point. You are one of the few guys who never let any bias get-into your calculations, although you are very close to the date. I like it that way, actually.

I have a wide range though,as it could be any where b/n 8th June 2007 to 1st August 2007. I obviously don't prefer the low end.


My estimation for September is a little conservative because I feel we have almost run out of SOFAD, I feel that there is absolutely no chance of the inventory running out. IMHO the SOFAD that we could see in the September bulletin may just be ~ 3K this will push the dates likely to the range 01-JUN-2011 to 08-JUN-2011 (Based on Spec's table). I wish you and all PWMB's/PWBA's the very best, looks like you will have a touch and go case I sincerely wish you are on the better side.

I agree with you only BTM can happen in September or for that matter any time to their discretion, CO's statement is really intended for next year. CSFM or any form of SFM will happen in the coming year after they have made an assessment. One critical thing would be how fast can I485 be processed, veni has provided 1 example of 2 months, if however we see many constant examples of 2-3 months range then it will be CSFM / SFM and not the BTM approach. It’s really wait and watch and a little bit of luck. When the new year starts the rates of approval will be like an early lead, comparable or lower approval rates for EB1 and EB2 ROW will be catalyst for anything to happen earlier.

[gc_usa]

My estimation for September is a little conservative because I feel we have almost run out of SOFAD, I feel that there is absolutely no chance of the inventory running out. IMHO the SOFAD that we could see in the September bulletin may just be ~ 3K this will push the dates likely to the range 01-JUN-2011 to 08-JUN-2011 (Based on Spec's table). I wish you and all PWMB's/PWBA's the very best, looks like you will have a touch and go case I sincerely wish you are on the better side.

I agree with you only BTM can happen in September or for that matter any time to their discretion, CO's statement is really intended for next year. CSFM or any form of SFM will happen in the coming year after they have made an assessment. One critical thing would be how fast can I485 be processed, veni has provided 1 example of 2 months, if however we see many constant examples of 2-3 months range then it will be CSFM / SFM and not the BTM approach. It’s really wait and watch and a little bit of luck. When the new year starts the rates of approval will be like an early lead, comparable or lower approval rates for EB1 and EB2 ROW will be catalyst for anything to happen earlier.

My take is, if they won't do BTM in sep then , its not likely to happen until July 2012 unless CO does qtr spillover. then it may happen in dec 2012 or march 2012 depends on available sofad and pwmb , porting demand.

[imdeng]

Excellent find Nishant. I have downloaded everything from FLCDataCenter for my research - but SalaryQuest is much easier to query. I wish they would give row-by-row details rather than just summary statistics.


btw, for those of you who want to find out comparable salaries being given in comparable companies or titles, positions etc, I found a website salaryquest.com, what these guys have done is grabbed the publicly available labor and PERM data for H visas and GC (you can get txt as well as mdb and data structure also explained on http://www.flcdatacenter.com/ and they have put it in their Database, and made search available against it.

I found it really really interesting, it is very genuine, I found my own stuff in it.

Might help give an insight on how much to ask employer in next raise, or if the employer is fleecing you, or if changing job, what these guys are already giving to foreign immigrants!

[self.coach]

USCIS has just announced that they are launching a new website which is intended to provide new data reports covering agency performance in a number of areas.

The website can be accessed at http://www.uscis.gov/data/.

Data Reports Available
Currently, there are ten data sets available on the website. Four of the data sets will be updated monthly; they include processing times and performance data for Form N-400, Application for Naturalization; performance data for Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status; and statistics on Form I-914, Application for T Nonimmigrant Status, and Form I-918, Petition for U Nonimmigrant Status. Forms I-914(T) and I-918(U) are used for victims of trafficking and victims of crime.
Additionally, information about the total number of receipts and approvals by quarter and year-to-date for all form types will be published quarterly.

[self.coach]

The USCIS Ombudsman office has released a report (http://www.laborimmigration.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/EAD-Ombudsman-Recommendation.pdf?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+ Law+Group+Newsletter&utm_campaign=af85d3c389-Weekly_Newsletter_Jul_21_2011&utm_medium=email)and a recommendation to USCIS regarding changing policies with respect to I-765 Application for Employment Authorization Document (EAD) cases.

The Problem

Many employers and individuals who rely on EAD cards for employment find it frustrating that there are no reliable processing times for the EAD cards. For most employment with EAD cards, employment is authorized only when the employee has a valid EAD card. In other words, if an EAD card expires and a renewal is not filed on time (with or without fault of the employee) or if the EAD application takes long time to be approved, then the employee, upon expiration of the EAD card and while waiting for the renewal to be approved, must stop working. This brings a lot of difficulty to employees and employers.
USCIS is required to issue EAD cards within 90 days. However, often USCIS is not able to do so. Several years ago, local service centers were permitted to issue interim cards for EAD applications pending for more than 90 days. This option is not currently available and the only redress an EAD applicant has is to seek expedited processing of his or her EAD application. Expedited processing, however, is discretionary and unpredictable.

The Ombudsman’s Recommendations
To address some of the problems with the current EAD application process, the Ombudsman makes several recommendations to USCIS, after making a very thorough, interesting (for some) and somewhat critical review of the current EAD application review framework.
The Ombudsdam report, after reviewing the currently-available options for EAD applicants, and after concluding that such options are inadequate, makes five recommendations.
1. Establish methods at local USCIS offices where EAD applications can be resolved;
2. Establish a uniform processing time goal of 45 days for adjudication and 60 days for issuance of an EAD;
3. Improve monitoring and ensure real-time visibility through an automated system for tracking processing times;
4. Follow established internal procedures for issuing interim EADs in cases where background checks are pending; and
5. Issue replacement EADs with validity dates beginning on the date the old EAD expires.

[Spectator]

My estimation for September is a little conservative because I feel we have almost run out of SOFAD, I feel that there is absolutely no chance of the inventory running out. IMHO the SOFAD that we could see in the September bulletin may just be ~ 3K this will push the dates likely to the range 01-JUN-2011 to 08-JUN-2011 (Based on Spec's table). I wish you and all PWMB's/PWBA's the very best, looks like you will have a touch and go case I sincerely wish you are on the better side.

I agree with you only BTM can happen in September or for that matter any time to their discretion, CO's statement is really intended for next year. CSFM or any form of SFM will happen in the coming year after they have made an assessment. One critical thing would be how fast can I485 be processed, veni has provided 1 example of 2 months, if however we see many constant examples of 2-3 months range then it will be CSFM / SFM and not the BTM approach. It’s really wait and watch and a little bit of luck. When the new year starts the rates of approval will be like an early lead, comparable or lower approval rates for EB1 and EB2 ROW will be catalyst for anything to happen earlier.Teddy,

I agree that 3-4k is a reasonable number, if approvals carry on as they have over recent months.

I suspect EB1 and EB2-ROW might slow slightly, so more might be available.

I think it is a bit of a stretch to clear the backlog entirely. Possibly it can get as far as 22JUL07 Cut Off Date, if the Chinese figure of 7k mentioned earlier today is correct.

I find that hard to say, knowing that your PD is 24 Jul 2007.

[Spectator]

We'll have to take into account total demand before 2008, which is 10,450.

Which btw, will NOT include PWMB after march 8th 2007 and spouses and children if any to the original 485 applications.Leo,

My table is for September only, so it takes into account the 2.6k allocated in the August VB to EB2-IC, leaving 7.8-7.9k demand going into September itself.

The USCIS Inventory figures slightly overstate that number at 8.2k.

[leo07]

Thanks Spec. I appreciate it.

is it possible to assume that the delta(10450 - 8256 =2194 ), could be some PWMB's + spouses + new EB2ROW + porting in one month? ( i.e June 1st to July 10th 2011)
trying to see if it's even worth to reconcile those numbers. ( actually that 2194 could make or break lot of our cases :))



Leo,

My table is for September only, so it takes into account the 2.6k allocated in the August VB to EB2-IC, leaving 7.8-7.9k demand going into September itself.

The USCIS Inventory figures slightly overstate that number at 8.2k.

[Monica12]

Hi Meso

Your question is little confusing. If you want to know , Aug Demand Data table shows 6400 as remaining demand and Why Spec's table shows 8256 ? If this is ur doubt the answer would be ............

DoS Demand data table shows demand after 08 Mar 07 ( cutoff date in July bulletin)

Spec's Demand data table shows demand after 15 Apr 07 ( Cutoff date in Aug bulletin)

6400 Vs 8256

6400 is India total only ( from Mar 07 to Aug 07)
8256 is India + China ( from Apr 07 to Aug 07)
Thanks for the clarity JJ bhai, I was confused about this too !

[soggadu]

guys..

someone on trackitt is arranging for a phone conference on GC issues, not a lawyer but might be one of those experienced persons... Just thought it might help some1 if i post it here...

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/722890953/phone-conf-today/page/last_page

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. I appreciate it.

is it possible to assume that the delta(10450 - 8256 =2194 ), could be some PWMB's + spouses + new EB2ROW + porting in one month? ( i.e June 1st to July 10th 2011)
trying to see if it's even worth to reconcile those numbers. ( actually that 2194 could make or break lot of our cases :))The delta on the Demand Data figure of 10,450 versus the USCIS Inventory would be 304 or 2.9% (USCIS Inventory = 10,754 for 08 March 2007 to end of backlog).

The 8,256 represents the number left on the USCIS Inventory after incorporating the movement of the Cut Off Date to 15APR07 in the August VB.

In fact I noticed a small mistake, so the 8,256 has become 8,159. Therefore the movement in August VB used 10,754 - 8,159 = 2,595 visas from the USCIS Inventory.

I will update the tables.

[leo07]

perfect. In order to move to 1st August 2007, we will need exactly 7,835 + PWMBs uptil April 15th 2007 + any new apps(spouses etc)
Is it safe to say the remaining all will add up to 1000 max? ( so that the grand number is 8835 visas needed )

[soggadu]

perfect. In order to move to 1st August 2007, we will need exactly 7,835 + PWMBs uptil April 15th 2007 + any new apps(spouses etc)
Is it safe to say the remaining all will add up to 1000 max? ( so that the grand number is 8835 visas needed )

Small correction...in order to move to Aug 1st 07 we need just 7835.. In order to approve all cases until Aug 01 2007 we would need what you mentioned... moving dates at this point doesnt really count PWMBs and Porting... think about it...

[Spectator]

perfect. In order to move to 1st August 2007, we will need exactly 7,835 + PWMBs uptil April 15th 2007 + any new apps(spouses etc)
Is it safe to say the remaining all will add up to 1000 max? ( so that the grand number is 8835 visas needed )Leo,

I have updated the tables now, so the figure to move to 01AUG07 Cut Off Date has become 7,738.

Given that the USCIS Inventory figures are slightly higher than the DOS Demand Data figures, then the numbers in the table probably incorporate some extra demand already. Personally, I doubt PWMB etc that can get approved in time will add up to 1k in September anyway.

As I said, treat the table as a ready reckoner and add what you feel is correct. If you think it needs another 1,000, then the the figure would become 8,738 to reach a Cut Off date of 01AUG07.

[neospeed]

http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://niunational.org/forum/viewtopic.php%3Ff%3D30%26t%3D1899&usg=ALkJrhgsVs3FJu66e4aD30txQy9a1XFstQ

Found this in mitbbs. Im still going thu it.

[leo07]

Thanks Spec. I agree that 60 days is too less for any pwmb to grab a visa number. ( 30 days much less). 22nd July looks likely, but I'm thinking DOS would like to err on the higher side and 01 August 2007 is not very unrealistic at this time.

[neospeed]

Here is the actual link

http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mitbbs.com%2F

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://niunational.org/forum/viewforum.php%3Ff%3D30%26sid%3Db48b1e0795b5feb0003 a45b4548a4891

[ravisekhar]

qblogfan can you translate the above information correctly for us. We appreciate your help.

[leo07]

Thanks neospeed!!! I appreciate it.

One thing that a translation couldn't mess up and that conveys the gist of the messages is EB2-less-than-7000 for September. ( we were thinking of 3-10k anyways )

qblogfan, you are the man of the hour. Can you please translate and enlighten us :)


Here is the actual link

http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.mitbbs.com%2F

http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http://niunational.org/forum/viewforum.php%3Ff%3D30%26sid%3Db48b1e0795b5feb0003 a45b4548a4891

[srimurthy]

Any idea if the govt shutdown will have an impact on the VBs, with the budget deficit discussions going on?

[leo07]

On a lighter note, one thing that I failed to understand was the followup post:
(Google Translation was)..." The focus seems to be to persuade the British to establish the heart of his pants to make chopsticks to deposit. Otherwise he will drag on, big Bright waves boiling SO next year. "

Obviously our Chinese friends don't seem to be too happy with CO and there's some slang involved there :) LOL


Thanks neospeed!!! I appreciate it.

One thing that a translation couldn't mess up and that conveys the gist of the messages is EB2-less-than-7000 for September. ( we were thinking of 3-10k anyways )

qblogfan, you are the man of the hour. Can you please translate and enlighten us :)

[nishant2200]

Any idea if the govt shutdown will have an impact on the VBs, with the budget deficit discussions going on?

govt shutdown shall not affect USCIS which is a self-funded agency. CP will be affected as overseas consulates might stop issuing visas. DOL will be affected (PERM will not be done) as DOL is funded by government.

I do not think shutdown will happen, the country's credit rating is at stake. it's a political game and they will avoid by short term measures, until they get to actual one.

[leo07]

That is one of the last things that you need to worry now. CIS is almost funded by future-immigrants, self-sufficient with funds. DOS, is not, but since your dates are current, that might not be your worry :)

[Monica12]

On a lighter note, one thing that I failed to understand was the followup post:
(Google Translation was)..." The focus seems to be to persuade the British to establish the heart of his pants to make chopsticks to deposit. Otherwise he will drag on, big Bright waves boiling SO next year. "

Obviously our Chinese friends don't seem to be too happy with CO and there's some slang involved there :) LOL
LOL!!! Leo, that is hilarious ! It's so funny what comes up in google translation :)

[leo07]

yeah, it is hilarious. I'm just as much interested to get the second post translated as the first one, by our very own qblogfan :)

LOL!!! Leo, that is hilarious ! It's so funny what comes up in google translation :)

[Spectator]

On a lighter note, one thing that I failed to understand was the followup post:
(Google Translation was)..." The focus seems to be to persuade the British to establish the heart of his pants to make chopsticks to deposit. Otherwise he will drag on, big Bright waves boiling SO next year. "

Obviously our Chinese friends don't seem to be too happy with CO and there's some slang involved there :) LOLLeo,

That's funny.

In my translation, CO is often referred to as the "Austrian".

As best I could work out, 19k is the theoretical figure (for August/September) "First, he said 19,000 of the remaining completely inaccurate, because of their monthly batch of inventory than we see thousands more".

However, CO is worried about the usage he has seen in June other than EB2-IC "EB1 Has increased in June".

Also, the "monthly batch of inventory than we see thousands more" seems to suggest greater usage than expected?

At the moment, he has determined there might be less than 7k available to EB2 in September (it isn't clear whether that is all EB2 or just EB2-IC) "So, he scheduled in September that is used to determine the actual EB2 remaining places will be less than 7000.".

I think the pictogram type languages just don't lend themselves very well to machine translation to a letter based grammar and sentence construction. It needs a fluent speaker of both to do so.

[soggadu]

Qblogfan where art thou .... The translators are putting hearts in the pants... Come here soon And provide the translation... Save your language....

[qblogfan]

I agree with Spec and his translation is good.

I think Mr.CO always changes his mind in the last minute and all these communications only reflect his current thinking. Nobody really knows what he will do in the next VB.


Leo,

That's funny.

In my translation, CO is often referred to as the "Austrian".

As best I could work out, 19k is the theoretical figure (for August/September) "First, he said 19,000 of the remaining completely inaccurate, because of their monthly batch of inventory than we see thousands more".

However, CO is worried about the usage he has seen in June other than EB2-IC "EB1 Has increased in June".

Also, the "monthly batch of inventory than we see thousands more" seems to suggest greater usage than expected?

At the moment, he has determined there might be less than 7k available to EB2 in September (it isn't clear whether that is all EB2 or just EB2-IC) "So, he scheduled in September that is used to determine the actual EB2 remaining places will be less than 7000.".

I think the pictogram type languages just don't lend themselves very well to machine translation to a letter based grammar and sentence construction. It needs a fluent speaker of both to do so.

[goforgreen]

Qblogfan where art thou .... The translators are putting hearts in the pants... Come here soon And provide the translation... Save your language....


Soggadu ... you are so funny. :D

[leo07]

That's all:)

We were hoping you'd translate everything for us, including the jokes:)

Thanks for confirmation, btw.

Ok, jokes apart. If we assume < 7k to be 6000 visas then according to Spec's table it must reach July 15th 2007 at least? ("15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750")


I agree with Spec and his translation is good.

I think Mr.CO always changes his mind in the last minute and all these communications only reflect his current thinking. Nobody really knows what he will do in the next VB.

[Spectator]

That's all:)

We were hoping you'd translate everything for us, including the jokes:)

Thanks for confirmation, btw.

Ok, jokes apart. If we assume < 7k to be 6000 visas then according to Spec's table it must reach July 15th 2007 at least? ("15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750")Leo,

That would depend whether the < 7k only has to cover EB2-IC or all of EB2. That part was not clear.

[nishant2200]

That's all:)

We were hoping you'd translate everything for us, including the jokes:)

Thanks for confirmation, btw.

Ok, jokes apart. If we assume < 7k to be 6000 visas then according to Spec's table it must reach July 15th 2007 at least? ("15-Jul-07 -- 2,146 -- 3,771 -- 5,917 ---- 750")

Leo, I think at this point, I feel anything can happen. 7K is for EB2 I/C, EB2 entire .... who knows. Also 7k left is a projection by him based on what he thinks EB1 will also gobble up from the overall, what if that deviates a lot. It's all in flux, and will boil down to numbers which CO crunches until the last day before VB. This is the crucial one, he has to try to ensure no visas are wasted, as well as they are allocated fairly. And this time he has the flexibility of a pre-adjudicated buffer to play around with, which might be the last FY to have so.

[leo07]

Hi Nishanth,

IMHO, for the month of September, there is no difference between EB2IC & EB2ROW. They are just raw visa numbers, whichever visa-processor gets their hand on the visa number first, will hold the visa to that application. Only thing we can assume and that can throw us off is any sudden rise of approve-able EB2ROW and EB1 cases. 140 approval surge( &485 apps) in last 30 days, is unlikely to create such rise. For Eb2ROW or Eb1 to throw any monkey wrench in September bulletin, 140 approval( &485 apps) surge must have happened in April-May-June months. July-August surge is unlikely to grab visa numbers this year.

Leo, I think at this point, I feel anything can happen. 7K is for EB2 I/C, EB2 entire .... who knows. Also 7k left is a projection by him based on what he thinks EB1 will also gobble up from the overall, what if that deviates a lot. It's all in flux, and will boil down to numbers which CO crunches until the last day before VB. This is the crucial one, he has to try to ensure no visas are wasted, as well as they are allocated fairly. And this time he has the flexibility of a pre-adjudicated buffer to play around with, which might be the last FY to have so.

[iamdeb]

Sorry for diverting from the topic again.

Regarding my Passport renewal I have 2 questions.

1. How do I get my documents notarized?
2. My I94 is stapled in the passport. Do I need to take it off while sending the passport.

Thanks in advance.

Deb:confused:

[nishant2200]

Hi Nishanth,

IMHO, for the month of September, there is no difference between EB2IC & EB2ROW. They are just raw visa numbers, whichever visa-processor gets their hand on the visa number first, will hold the visa to that application. Only thing we can assume and that can throw us off is any sudden rise of approve-able EB2ROW and EB1 cases. 140 approval surge( &485 apps) in last 30 days, is unlikely to create such rise. For Eb2ROW or Eb1 to throw any monkey wrench in September bulletin, 140 approval( &485 apps) surge must have happened in April-May-June months. July-August surge is unlikely to grab visa numbers this year.

Leo, thanks for the explanation. It makes sense to me what you are saying.

[nishant2200]

Sorry for diverting from the topic again.

Regarding my Passport renewal I have 2 questions.

1. How do I get my documents notarized?
2. My I94 is stapled in the passport. Do I need to take it off while sending the passport.

Thanks in advance.

Deb:confused:

This is from my own experience:

1. Notaries have a cover sheet facility, where in, on cover sheet, they write down what documents beneath they are notarizing, and on the main cover sheet, they put down the main stamp and much more details, while on the actual document copies, the simple stamp. This way you save money, one notary fee, instead of a fee per document. You can get notarized at local UPS store, or even many companies Human Resource department. I am pretty sure you can even google and find out.

2. You need not send I-94. I did not.

[superdesi2100]

Sorry for diverting from the topic again.

Regarding my Passport renewal I have 2 questions.

1. How do I get my documents notarized?
2. My I94 is stapled in the passport. Do I need to take it off while sending the passport.

Thanks in advance.

Deb:confused:

I just renewed my wife's passport. You can go to local AAA office or your bank - they have a notary in the office. I did remove I-94 stapled in the passport before sending the latter for renewal. I also wrote a letter asking them to send the original passport back along with the new one.

[leo07]

Any post office or UPS will have a certified notary that can notarize, for a small fee of course.
Yes, you will have to un-staple I-94(white card ) off your passport and staple( clip) it to new one.
I-94 is a bond between you & US. Passport is b/n you and your home-country :)

Sorry for diverting from the topic again.

Regarding my Passport renewal I have 2 questions.

1. How do I get my documents notarized?
2. My I94 is stapled in the passport. Do I need to take it off while sending the passport.

Thanks in advance.

Deb:confused:

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Nishanth,

IMHO, for the month of September, there is no difference between EB2IC & EB2ROW. They are just raw visa numbers, whichever visa-processor gets their hand on the visa number first, will hold the visa to that application. Only thing we can assume and that can throw us off is any sudden rise of approve-able EB2ROW and EB1 cases. 140 approval surge( &485 apps) in last 30 days, is unlikely to create such rise. For Eb2ROW or Eb1 to throw any monkey wrench in September bulletin, 140 approval( &485 apps) surge must have happened in April-May-June months. July-August surge is unlikely to grab visa numbers this year.

Leo the Jul - Aug surge in I140 will grab visa numbers for all concurrently filed cases for EB2 ROW and EB1, IMHO around 50%of these cases are filed concurrently, so for I/C SOFAD this is peaking at a slightly inopportune time, it may pull down this year’s SOFAD and make it increase next year. CO will have to do a real last minute estimation / guesstimation, the EB2 I/C cases will be governed by the set PD. The EB2 ROW and EB1 cases can provide the buffer to CO to close the deal. For all concurrently filed cases the 485 review process happens pretty much in parallel and FP happens within 1.5 months so as soon as 140 is approved these cases are also as good as preadjudicated.

[leo07]

I see your point. I also agree with your point that most of these cases are concurrently filed. I would think more than 90% of these ROW cases would be concurrently filed, there is no reason for them not to file concurrent for a EB petition. However, my only hanging-thread of assumption is that it is not possible for a case to move from 140-approved status to Documentarily-qualified for Visa ( or Pre-Adj) status in 30-60 days.

If someone were to tell me that these two processes are parallel, while 140 gets approved, CIS simultaneously works on preparing the ground for 485 on the same app, my assumption falls totally apart.

[nishant2200]

I see your point. I also agree with your point that most of these cases are concurrently filed. I would think more than 90% of these ROW cases would be concurrently filed, there is no reason for them not to file concurrent for a EB petition. However, my only hanging-thread of assumption is that it is not possible for a case to move from 140-approved status to Documentarily-qualified for Visa ( or Pre-Adj) status in 30-60 days.

If someone were to tell me that these two processes are parallel, while 140 gets approved, CIS simultaneously works on preparing the ground for 485 on the same app, my assumption falls totally apart.

I found this link on OH law firm website:
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=2002_register&docid=02-19249-filed
which basically is about some memo long back in 2002 which led to the allowing of concurrent filing of I-140 and I-485. I have not read every detail, but if you see summary, the primary reason being listed for doing so is:

The current Immigration and Naturalization Service (Service)
regulations provide that an alien worker who wants to apply for
permanent resident by filing the appropriate Form I-485, Application to
Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, cannot do so until he or
she obtains approval of the underlying petition, Form I-140, Immigrant
Petition for Alien Worker. This procedure has resulted in an
unnecessary delay for certain alien workers. This interim rule amends
the Service's regulations by allowing the Form I-485 to be filed
concurrently when a visa is immediately available, thereby improving
the efficiency of the process as well as customer service.

To me this indicates, that they do simultaneously work on preparing the 485, since the basic premise of allowing concurrent filing was to reduce delay.

And next notice the line in Bold, this thing kills us.

[leo07]

Good find, I lost my battle more than half :)

The only defense is trackitt data for past 6 months, average time b/n 140 approval & 485 approval for ROW concurrent is:72.85 days. ( I excluded anything larger than 200 days and 0s and 1 day processing times)

Now, I'm back to square one, at the mercy of CO :)

Thanks Nishanth and Teddy for your comments.


I found this link on OH law firm website:
http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=2002_register&docid=02-19249-filed
which basically is about some memo long back in 2002 which led to the allowing of concurrent filing of I-140 and I-485. I have not read every detail, but if you see summary, the primary reason being listed for doing so is:

The current Immigration and Naturalization Service (Service)
regulations provide that an alien worker who wants to apply for
permanent resident by filing the appropriate Form I-485, Application to
Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, cannot do so until he or
she obtains approval of the underlying petition, Form I-140, Immigrant
Petition for Alien Worker. This procedure has resulted in an
unnecessary delay for certain alien workers. This interim rule amends
the Service's regulations by allowing the Form I-485 to be filed
concurrently when a visa is immediately available, thereby improving
the efficiency of the process as well as customer service.

To me this indicates, that they do simultaneously work on preparing the 485, since the basic premise of allowing concurrent filing was to reduce delay.

And next notice the line in Bold, this thing kills us.

[sai999]

Good find, I lost my battle more than half :)

The only defense is trackitt data for past 6 months, average time b/n 140 approval & 485 approval for ROW concurrent is:72.85 days. ( I excluded anything larger than 200 days and 0s and 1 day processing times)

Now, I'm back to square one, at the mercy of CO :)

Thanks Nishanth and Teddy for your comments.

Hi Leo please don't disappoint about the visa moment , I know how much hard work you are doing on the analysis and other activities and I am big fan of this forum and I just registered and posting a first post.

My humble bow to Q, Spec, Leo,T and other great guru's .Please don’t loose the hope on moment ,if not today, tomorrow or some day we will reach our destiny.

My personal thanks all great gurus in this forum for number crunching and moment prediction.

Nishanth as you mentioned in earlier post your wife and daughter complain about spending most of the time in Q’s forum this is what exactly happing in my home also…;);)

[neospeed]

Good find, I lost my battle more than half :)

The only defense is trackitt data for past 6 months, average time b/n 140 approval & 485 approval for ROW concurrent is:72.85 days. ( I excluded anything larger than 200 days and 0s and 1 day processing times)

Now, I'm back to square one, at the mercy of CO :)

Thanks Nishanth and Teddy for your comments.

Leo good point about trakitt data. Here is the shortest approval i saw so far:

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/discuss/i485-eb/22257

concurrently filed one with I-140 premium, I-140 and I-485 approval gap is approx 2 months.

[iamdeb]

Any post office or UPS will have a certified notary that can notarize, for a small fee of course.
Yes, you will have to un-staple I-94(white card ) off your passport and staple( clip) it to new one.
I-94 is a bond between you & US. Passport is b/n you and your home-country :)

Thank you all for the advice.
One more question on it.

In the application form which address shall I fill for Address to be Printed in Passport?
Will it be my Indian home address or the current US Address?
Pertaining to the same section, what will be the Other Address?
I am confused about the address issue.

Appreciate all your help.

Deb

[myfr66]

FYI. Key info made available by the mitbbs:
1) 7K is for EB2 (not EB2IC) Sept
2) EB2IC cut-off date will proceed steadily
3) EB2 waiting time (pd-current) will be less than 4-1/2 years

[qesehmk]

Guys .. I have been away a bit and haven't been able to read a lot of the things. But let me point out a simple thing:

If EB2 Sep Quota is 7K then why is it such a bad news? At 28.7% of 19K one would expect Sep+Aug EB2 quota at ~5-6K. So Sep quota would've been ~3K. So ~7K should beconsidered a good news if true.

On the other hand 7K for Sept alone is a great thing - if true. To be honest... predictions stuff works better at a macro level. I wouldn't dare to try to calculate and predict for a single month and so it might be a better idea to apply common sense to Sep situation. The fact is - in the past, DoS has made movement in Sept. The fact is - DoS seems to be determined to clear backlog. The fact is - EB1 is clogged due to Kazarian. The fact is - CO has expressed cautious interest in getting in new cases. So more than likely, there could be a decent couple of months movement in Sept coupled with a BTM in Sept or Oct.

Its a general principle that at a micro level the noise kills any ability to predict. So a single EB1/EB2ROW wave of applications could easily wipe out the entire SOFAD. Will it happen? Most likely not. As I said the likelihood of a couple of months movement remains strong and all we need to do is wait and watch. Good luck!

[nishant2200]

sai999, here I am again. 4.50 AM PST.

Q just put a wonderful summary.

N thanks for ur post, welcome!


Hi Leo please don't disappoint about the visa moment , I know how much hard work you are doing on the analysis and other activities and I am big fan of this forum and I just registered and posting a first post.

My humble bow to Q, Spec, Leo,T and other great guru's .Please don’t loose the hope on moment ,if not today, tomorrow or some day we will reach our destiny.

My personal thanks all great gurus in this forum for number crunching and moment prediction.

Nishanth as you mentioned in earlier post your wife and daughter complain about spending most of the time in Q’s forum this is what exactly happing in my home also…;);)