EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011 [Archive] - Page 18

neospeed

07-15-2011, 10:53 AM

Q I very sincerely hope that this model that you project is the correct one I agree with you that the 52K applied to 6 months or 7 months can yield different results. I have a question about CP, traditionally the consulates return their results in the last few months typically before the last VB so could it be that the CP approvals are not added, and this could deduct a good number out of the 19K.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

Looks like they allocate some numbers every month to CP and are supposed to return the unused monthly. Quoted the same below

Allocations to Foreign Service posts outside the regular monthly cycle are possible in emergency
or exceptional cases, but only at the request of the office processing the case. Note that should
retrogression of a cut-off date be announced, VO can honor extraordinary requests for additional
numbers only if the applicant's priority date is earlier than the retrogressed cut-off date.

Not all numbers allocated are actually used for visa issuance; some are returned to VO and are
reincorporated into the pool of numbers available for later allocation during the fiscal year. The
rate of return of unused numbers may fluctuate from month to month, just as demand may
fluctuate. Lower returns mean fewer numbers available for subsequent reallocation. Fluctuations
can cause cut-off date movement to slow, stop, or even retrogress. Retrogression is particularly
possible near the end of the fiscal year as visa issuance approaches the annual limitations.

TeddyKoochu

07-15-2011, 11:01 AM

52K was the number of all visas issued by DoS. So if CP is going to return some then that actually will be upside.

Q I believe I did not phrase my question correctly, I think by using "Returns" I confused it further by saying that these ae the excessive numbers that consulates would return.

I am trying to outline another scenario that the 19K visas for a moment let’s assume are September only. Is there a possibility that these do not include ALL the CP approvals for the year thus far? I feel there could have possibly been 8-10K CP approvals this year. Thinking otherwise I do not feel it’s prudent to have left 19K for the last month, Aug just applied 3K, so potentially 22k was left for the Aug bulletin I feel they should have allocated a lot more for the Aug bulletin in that case. The scenario that Iam trying to outline maybe completely hypothetical just another possible scenario. Non inclusion of CP approvals may run contrary to the fact that demand data must include CP.

soggadu

07-15-2011, 11:02 AM

Teddy

As you know I always like to triangulate to a conclusion from multiple dimensions. So here is one more perspective.

If we use 52K consumption for 6 months, it is more conservative than 7 months. So lets use 6 months. So what is 52K? It is teh normal run rate without SO. All of us know that for first 8 months at least there was no SO. So the full year normal rate would be 104.

At 140K quota, thats 36K net SOFAD since EB2IC 5.6K is baked into normal run rate. So the total SOFAD should be 41.6K. So far 29K SOFAD is applied through Apr 15th 2007. This includes August bulletin. So it leaves 12.6K SOFAD available over and above normal run rate for September (9K approx). So the total left for September should be 12.6K+ 9K = 21.6K.

So even if we assume its 19K, the september SOFAD comes to 10K. Even if you are extremely conservative and allocate 5K to eliminate additional EB1 and EB2ROW backlog, that still leaves 5K for EB2IC. That's the reason I am now very comfortable with 1 July (yes July) 2007 and in fact there could be even more upside to July. We will see.

Also, does this mean that they are saving all these numbers for last month?

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 11:17 AM

So far solely from MITBBS. But the reason I believe its credible is because teh chinese have a very effective lobbying groups that apparently get this information periodically.. So this probably isn't the first time they have done it. As somebody said earlier, this couldve been obtained under right to information act/s.

It would be a shame on the Indian groups that collect thousands in donations if they never tried to get such kind of information.

Q

Is this 52K number available somewhere on DOS/USCIS websites or solely based on MITBBS....thanks

ct, cant thank you enough. Welcome to forum.

From MITBBS:

(Translation) Regarding the number of 121000, I asked a few times. He (Mr. O) was clear that it covers the published August number (VB?). I asked twice whether 19000 is for September. He was not willing to answer directly.

bieber

07-15-2011, 11:18 AM

Spec

general question,
Is it possible to to give the spillover numbers to EB3 without making EB2 current? sameway will EB2 receive numbers from EB5 only if EB1 is current?

gc_usa

07-15-2011, 11:26 AM

T ,

VO may had numbers but hold on to it so he can blow PWMB , in case USCIS approves then in a month ( All we know they can't but VO doesn't have control over that ) and once put into demand he can't ignore them. So what he may did is limit supply for August. Now if he has 19k left for Sep , he can allocate 8 - 8.5 k needed for EB2 IC and rest for EB1 , EB2 Row etc. He could do same in August too but what if allocated all those 9k to India / China and EB1 and rest demand surge in Sep, then he end up applying cutoff date for those. while doing more spill over in Sep , here is what might happen. It will clear Eb2 IC and those 10k left over will go to Eb1 & rest , now if they run out of visas for them in last week of Sep VO don't need to worry since in new month they will have more supply. So date will not retro for those categories.

I think its a calculated move by DOS. Even USCIS can't spoil it. ( To spoil USCIS needs to show up with demand more than 15k for Eb1 & rest categories in Sep demand data ).

leo07

07-15-2011, 11:26 AM

With all due respect to this source-- the same source after talking to CO had predicted several months movement for August VB. If we go several pages back on this thread, you'll see it. ( source from 'unknown space station')

I was pumped up last night about this 19k left-over, but this morning I have a different feeling :)

From MITBBS:

(Translation) Regarding the number of 121000, I asked a few times. He (Mr. O) was clear that it covers the published August number (VB?). I asked twice whether 19000 is for September. He was not willing to answer directly.

发信人: cnus (会飞的猪), 信区: EB23
标题: Re: 公布２０１１年前７个月审批数据具体情况
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jul 15 11:35:57 2011, 美东)

这个１２１０００到哪，我问了好几次了，比较明确是COVER他已经公布的８月排期。
直接问１９０００是不是给９月的，两遍，不同角度，他就不愿意正面直接回答。

【在 mozhu (墨猪) 的大作中提到: 】
: cnus我是菜鸟对你的计算有一个问题
: 7.13后还剩19k明额
: 这19k是要批完EB1和中国印度以外EB2后才会给EB2IC
: 也就是2个半月的EB1和中国印度以外EB2
: 根据你以下的计算(在二楼）一个月要7631用在EB1和中国印度以外EB2
: 那两个半月7631*2.5=19078. 岂不正好是19k?
: then nothing left?

【在 seansoon (商裔) 的大作中提到: 】
: CNUS, thanks for the data.
: There is a critical question about the 19K. O said :" As of July 13th,
: there are 19k available..."
: Does this 19k include EB2 Rest of the world, EB1 and Eb5 from July 13th
to
: September 30th? Because there is no "Pai Qi" for them. Could you clarify
: this?
: If this 19k does include those, then there would not be much left for
EB2
: CI.
: Thanks

haripathhi

07-15-2011, 11:28 AM

Thanks for the link K. Looks like the author of this blog is a regular reader amongst us :). Whatever is written on his blog has been discussed here by the Guru's which cannot be co-incidence cause of the use of certain terms (ex: PWMB). Anyway, I guess this is another traffic routing gimmick. My 2 cents on this anyways!

Not sure if somebody had posted this here before, did check couple of last pages and did not find it and so posting this here.

I felt its a good read and reflects whats discussed here...

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/eb2-india-china-what-to-expect-in-fy.html

I hope posting a link here is fine... If not please remove my post.

iamdeb

07-15-2011, 11:29 AM

haripathhi

07-15-2011, 11:30 AM

Good point Leo. I second this!

With all due respect to this source-- the same source after talking to CO had predicted several months movement for August VB. If we go several pages back on this thread, you'll see it. ( source from 'unknown space station')

I was pumped up last night about this 19k left-over, but this morning I have a different feeling :)

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 11:30 AM

Teddy

I think we have passed the hurdle of being comfortable with teh numbers. As discussed offline the 52K doesn't include CP, but it is a 7 month number. So I think those two factors are a wash to each other. So again ... the full year normal rate consumption = 52/7 * 12 + 10K for CP = 100. It implies 40K net sofad + 5.6K EB2IC = 46K. That sounds too good to be true. But 5K seems like a lower bound for any movement.

As per why would they allocate less for August, it could be because they want to artificially create a situation where supply way exceeds demand and thereby creating a justifiable ground for BTM. I already hinted at this in one of my previous posts .... but really this is just a theory. We can never know for sure.

Q I believe I did not phrase my question correctly, I think by using "Returns" I confused it further by saying that these ae the excessive numbers that consulates would return.

I am trying to outline another scenario that the 19K visas for a moment let’s assume are September only. Is there a possibility that these do not include ALL the CP approvals for the year thus far? I feel there could have possibly been 8-10K CP approvals this year. Thinking otherwise I do not feel it’s prudent to have left 19K for the last month, Aug just applied 3K, so potentially 22k was left for the Aug bulletin I feel they should have allocated a lot more for the Aug bulletin in that case. The scenario that Iam trying to outline maybe completely hypothetical just another possible scenario. Non inclusion of CP approvals may run contrary to the fact that demand data must include CP.

Also, does this mean that they are saving all these numbers for last month?
Yes and something more as mentioned above.

haripathhi

07-15-2011, 11:35 AM

Deb,

Here is the link to the passport renewal service at Indian Embassy (SFO): http://www.cgisf.org/contents/view/79. I am sure the DC one would have a separate link too. I renewed my passport through post (from the Indian Embassy embassy at SFO) and it took a couple of weeks. Some of my friends renewed theirs and the max it took for them was a month. Check out the link. You have all the required information there.

Sorry Q/Gurus,

This has deviated off the topic. Maybe this needs to be moved to a different thread (Indian Passport Renewals?) Aye? :)

Hi,

I know this is offtrack but I couldn't resist posting my personal query here as there are so many veterans posting on this forum.
My Indian passport expires in Sep 2011. I plan to go to Washington DC to renew it.
Any idea on how long I will have to stay there to get it done?
Also, what are the steps and documents needed for passport renewal.

Appreciate any suggestion or advice.

Thanks,
Deb

donvar

07-15-2011, 11:36 AM

Hi,

I know this is offtrack but I couldn't resist posting my personal query here as there are so many veterans posting on this forum.
My Indian passport expires in Sep 2011. I plan to go to Washington DC to renew it.
Any idea on how long I will have to stay there to get it done?
Also, what are the steps and documents needed for passport renewal.

Appreciate any suggestion or advice.

Thanks,
Deb

Go to their website, they must be having information. Houston Consulate website has detailed information and forms for renewing passport. Mine is expired and they say you can get in a day.

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 11:39 AM

I agree. This is also very logical.

T ,

VO may had numbers but hold on to it so he can blow PWMB , in case USCIS approves then in a month ( All we know they can't but VO doesn't have control over that ) and once put into demand he can't ignore them. So what he may did is limit supply for August. Now if he has 19k left for Sep , he can allocate 8 - 8.5 k needed for EB2 IC and rest for EB1 , EB2 Row etc. He could do same in August too but what if allocated all those 9k to India / China and EB1 and rest demand surge in Sep, then he end up applying cutoff date for those. while doing more spill over in Sep , here is what might happen. It will clear Eb2 IC and those 10k left over will go to Eb1 & rest , now if they run out of visas for them in last week of Sep VO don't need to worry since in new month they will have more supply. So date will not retro for those categories.

I think its a calculated move by DOS. Even USCIS can't spoil it. ( To spoil USCIS needs to show up with demand more than 15k for Eb1 & rest categories in Sep demand data ).

I would wait until Sep to pass judgement on the source. DoS can't delay any move beyond September.

With all due respect to this source-- the same source after talking to CO had predicted several months movement for August VB. If we go several pages back on this thread, you'll see it. ( source from 'unknown space station')

I was pumped up last night about this 19k left-over, but this morning I have a different feeling :)

Why not just FeDEX it?

Hi,

I know this is offtrack but I couldn't resist posting my personal query here as there are so many veterans posting on this forum.
My Indian passport expires in Sep 2011. I plan to go to Washington DC to renew it.
Any idea on how long I will have to stay there to get it done?
Also, what are the steps and documents needed for passport renewal.

Appreciate any suggestion or advice.

Thanks,
Deb

iamdeb

07-15-2011, 11:52 AM

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 11:56 AM

If they are only going to stamp passport then its its a few minutes affair. But if they will issue you new one then I am not sure. Honestly its not worth spending time physically visiting consulate. But you can try! At least don't walk in. Make a proper appt.

Thank you all for your replies. The link really helped as I good much of the needed info.

Q,
Since I will be going to Baltimore for work in August I thought of getting my passport also renewed then. My only question is that since I will be going there only for couple of days will I be able to get my new passport in hand if I personally handover all the documents in the embassy.

Sorry I don't want to digress from the topic here.

Thanks,
Deb

bieber

07-15-2011, 12:02 PM

VO may had numbers but hold on to it so he can blow PWMB , in case USCIS approves then in a month ( All we know they can't but VO doesn't have control over that ) and once put into demand he can't ignore them. So what he may did is limit supply for August. Now if he has 19k left for Sep , he can allocate 8 - 8.5 k needed for EB2 IC and rest for EB1 , EB2 Row etc. He could do same in August too but what if allocated all those 9k to India / China and EB1 and rest demand surge in Sep, then he end up applying cutoff date for those. while doing more spill over in Sep , here is what might happen. It will clear Eb2 IC and those 10k left over will go to Eb1 & rest , now if they run out of visas for them in last week of Sep VO don't need to worry since in new month they will have more supply. So date will not retro for those categories.

I think its a calculated move by DOS. Even USCIS can't spoil it. ( To spoil USCIS needs to show up with demand more than 15k for Eb1 & rest categories in Sep demand data ).

I must say this is very compelling argument, It's good if DOS/CIS are actually planning these things

Spectator

07-15-2011, 12:06 PM

From MITBBS:

(Translation) Regarding the number of 121000, I asked a few times. He (Mr. O) was clear that it covers the published August number (VB?). I asked twice whether 19000 is for September. He was not willing to answer directly.
I too want to thank ct0651 for this information.

I think CO may have been extremely careful with his choice of words.

He would not confirm the 19k visas were for September alone, even when asked twice.

He said it :

covers the published August number

The only numbers that have been published for August are in the Demand Data. That is the position going into August (or at the end of July, if you prefer) when approx 10.5k spare visas are required to reach the end of the backlog for EB2-CI.

The original poster, who actually talked to CO, makes it clear that they do not know if it refers to the VB; they say (VB?).

The VB contains dates, not numbers.

So the 19k may still have to cover 2 months worth of demand for EB1-EB5, plus any remaining spillover (of which 2.6k appears to have been allocated in August).

Possibly, I have over analyzed it, but CO is generally very careful about the words he uses.

The jury is still out on this one - for me at least.

soggadu

07-15-2011, 12:28 PM

If they are only going to stamp passport then its its a few minutes affair. But if they will issue you new one then I am not sure. Honestly its not worth spending time physically visiting consulate. But you can try! At least don't walk in. Make a proper appt.

Q, interesting point... my wife applied for passport renewal but got her passport stamped with extension rather than getting a new passport... so is it ok get it extended through a stamp rather than a new PP?

vishnu

07-15-2011, 12:30 PM

Soggadu - it is totally ok to get it extended through the stamp. The occassion airport security officer will ask you to show the page with the stamp but immigration around the world know to look for the stamp.

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 12:31 PM

Here is a test I would propose to validate this claim.

If 19K is for August and Sept. then VO issued 121-52 = 70K for May Jun Jul. = 140% approvals in 3 months compared to first 7 months.

So will trackitt approvals for all EB categories for those 3 months be 140% of first 7 months? Lets see.

I too want to thank ct0651 for this information.

I think CO may have been extremely careful with his choice of words.

He would not confirm the 19k visas were for September alone, even when asked twice.

He said it :

The only numbers that have been published for August are in the Demand Data. That is the position going into August (or at the end of July, if you prefer) when approx 10.5k spare visas are required to reach the end of the backlog for EB2-CI.

The original poster, who actually talked to CO, makes it clear that they do not know if it refers to the VB; they say (VB?).

The VB contains dates, not numbers.

So the 19k may still have to cover 2 months worth of demand for EB1-EB5, plus any remaining spillover (of which 2.6k appears to have been allocated in August).

Possibly, I have over analyzed it, but CO is generally very careful about the words he uses.

The jury is still out on this one - for me at least.

soggadu

07-15-2011, 12:32 PM

03May07

07-15-2011, 12:33 PM

Thank you all for your replies. The link really helped as I good much of the needed info.

Q,
Since I will be going to Baltimore for work in August I thought of getting my passport also renewed then. My only question is that since I will be going there only for couple of days will I be able to get my new passport in hand if I personally handover all the documents in the embassy.

Sorry I don't want to digress from the topic here.

Thanks,
Deb

Talked to a friend who got extension done in DC 2 months ago.
He was saying if you drop it off, you need to pick it up. If you mail it ,you need to add $20 for return mail. You can't drop it off and ask them to mail or the other way around.
But you can double check with the consulate(who never answer your call and voicemail is always full and hence cant leave a message).

My friend dropped it off and had to go back after a month to pick it, so its not a one day job. He would suggest you mail it in, as Baltimore to DC drive is pretty hectic during morning/evening rushhour. With the cost of gas, driving back and forth is not feasible unless you plan to tour DC. And more importantly, if it is early August, you'll miss atleast 2-3 pages of postings on this thread while you are driving -- using phone (to read this thread etc) while driving is strictly prohibited in MD and DC. There is a 2 hr free street parking just across the consulate building, you should be able to read the signs beforehand using Google street view

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 12:47 PM

soggadu stamping is done on passsports that were issued for 5 years. After 10 years of use a passport must be replaced. No exceptions.

Q, interesting point... my wife applied for passport renewal but got her passport stamped with extension rather than getting a new passport... so is it ok get it extended through a stamp rather than a new PP?

indiasunil

07-15-2011, 12:48 PM

I have been to NY Consulate in person last week of January for Passport Renewal.. First of you have to know which zone/region you are.. For ex. OH, PA,NY, NJ address people should go to NY.

You can drop off your Passport and they will return passport by USPS Courier(by paying $20), within 10 business day you will receive surely. No need to go back again to collect unless you are willing to collect personally.

Thanks.

leo07

07-15-2011, 12:49 PM

I wasn't intending to pass a judgement on the source. I was "For" the news y'day and not so much after a good-night's sleep. Just stating my switched positions since y'day, as I recollect the past-breaking-news from the 'source'.

In all honesty, I want the source to be RIGHT and me wrong :)

I would wait until Sep to pass judgement on the source. DoS can't delay any move beyond September.

soggadu

07-15-2011, 12:58 PM

soggadu stamping is done on passsports that were issued for 5 years. After 10 years of use a passport must be replaced. No exceptions.

yes you are right...her's was a 5 yr one... just wanted to make sure we wont have any problems traveling around...

indiasunil

07-15-2011, 12:58 PM

Talked to a friend who got extension done in DC 2 months ago.
He was saying if you drop it off, you need to pick it up. If you mail it ,you need to add $20 for return mail. You can't drop it off and ask them to mail or the other way around.
But you can double check with the consulate(who never answer your call and voicemail is always full and hence cant leave a message).

My friend dropped it off and had to go back after a month to pick it, so its not a one day job. He would suggest you mail it in, as Baltimore to DC drive is pretty hectic during morning/evening rushhour. With the cost of gas, driving back and forth is not feasible unless you plan to tour DC. And more importantly, if it is early August, you'll miss atleast 2-3 pages of postings on this thread while you are driving -- using phone (to read this thread etc) while driving is strictly prohibited in MD and DC. There is a 2 hr free street parking just across the consulate building, you should be able to read the signs beforehand using Google street view

I have been to NY Consulate in person last week of January for Passport Renewal.. First of you have to know which zone/region you are.. For ex. OH, PA,NY, NJ address people should go to NY.

You can drop off your Passport and they will return passport by USPS Courier(by paying $20), within 10 business day you will receive surely. No need to go back again to collect unless you are willing to collect personally.

TeddyKoochu

07-15-2011, 01:04 PM

There are 2 main points in the MITTBS – Chinese forum discussion the information has come out of a FOIA request.

Í¬Ñ§ÃÇ£¬ÓÖÈÌ²»×¡´òÁË¸öOµÄµç»°¡£ - Î´Ãû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)
NIUÕþ¸®¹«¹Ø×é»ñÈ¡ÉóÅúÊý¾ÝÈ¡µÃ½øÕ¹ - Î´Ãû¿Õ¼ä(mitbbs.com)

1) 52,475 is 1st 7 month’s consumption - Logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin. Another coincidence is 33K is the exact SOFAD that we calculated as well.

2) 19K more numbers available – This part is disputed, the FOIA request outcome says that 19K numbers are available post Aug. Most of the posters believe that 19K is available for September itself if this is true (Personally Iam not optimistic about it) then we could see another 8-10K SOFAD in September for EB2 I/C and this can easily push the dates to the Jul / Aug 2007 range. Realistically if these numbers are for Aug and Sep then we would see only 2-3K additional SOFAD which puts the dates between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.

I wasn't intending to pass a judgement on the source. I was "For" the news y'day and not so much after a good-night's sleep. Just stating my switched positions since y'day, as I recollect the past-breaking-news from the 'source'.

In all honesty, I want the source to be RIGHT and me wrong :)

Me too Leo Iam also praying for the same I want the news to be correct and myself wrong :) personally for you and me that’s the olive branch of hope this year :).

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 01:06 PM

Alright friends .... so here is the answer to my own question.

Oct - Apr Total EB Approvals = 925
May - Jul 15 i.e. Today Total EB Approvals = 828
Jul 2011 Approvals As of 15 July = 158
Second half of July possible approvals = 158 MAX (based on June trend of 30% approvals in second half and 70% in first half).

if 925 = 52K, then 828 = 47K. Assuming remaing July yields another 158 approvals = 9K.

Thus trackitt approximation of total allocated through end of July = 108K.

That leaves 13K for August spillover + normal allocation. That sounds more than enough to cover entire August leaving 19K purely for September.

Here is a test I would propose to validate this claim.

If 19K is for August and Sept. then VO issued 121-52 = 70K for May Jun Jul. = 140% approvals in 3 months compared to first 7 months.

So will trackitt approvals for all EB categories for those 3 months be 140% of first 7 months? Lets see.

Kanmani all we have here is a blog. We don't have organizational structure to make it happen. Personally I don't think I have the skills and time to do advocacy. I know that I do have skills to bring clarity to GC process. But if a group emerges from this community that wants to do advocacy... I will sure support the group and follow the lead.

Yes shameful

Can we try ? Is it possible for us to get Visa information from USCIS at least next year ?

But , one request for info takes 6 months to get a reply from them . ( one person is waiting for his I-140 copy for 5+ months requesting via foia )

Leo I should say sorry. I didn't mean to criticize you. Just tried to say what I said, as a matter of fact. But probably it came out a bit strong.

I wasn't intending to pass a judgement on the source. I was "For" the news y'day and not so much after a good-night's sleep. Just stating my switched positions since y'day, as I recollect the past-breaking-news from the 'source'.

In all honesty, I want the source to be RIGHT and me wrong :)

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 01:11 PM

vishnu

07-15-2011, 01:11 PM

Q - it is SOO impressive that you are still working on calculations/predictions on behalf of all of us, despite having been greened. The commitment and selflesness is impressive!

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 01:20 PM

well that's because .... its fryeeday, fryeeday. I started this out of selfish reasons but later on also enjoyed helping out people.

As per my GC ..... if everything goes well hopefull next month.
Q - it is SOO impressive that you are still working on calculations/predictions on behalf of all of us, despite having been greened. The commitment and selflesness is impressive!

TeddyKoochu

07-15-2011, 01:35 PM

Teddy

In the 33K you have calculated, I agree w the number. But additionally it should also include 5.6K for EB2IC normal allocation. Sincethat 5.6K would otherwise be burried in the normal rate of approval.

Overall, I think I have thought this through from multiple angles and made a very compelling case for more than 5K SOFAD for september bulletin. So now I am going to rest my pen on this topic unless there are questions directed at me.

Q the SOFAD value that I had is 33K that includes the regular I/C cap. I agree that 5K is almost sure even if this news is partially true. Your approaches are also flawless in their own right we all working on assumptions.

Alright friends .... so here is the answer to my own question.

Oct - Apr Total EB Approvals = 925
May - Jul 15 i.e. Today Total EB Approvals = 828
Jul 2011 Approvals As of 15 July = 158
Second half of July possible approvals = 158 MAX (based on June trend of 30% approvals in second half and 70% in first half).

if 925 = 52K, then 828 = 47K. Assuming remaing July yields another 158 approvals = 9K.

Thus trackitt approximation of total allocated through end of July = 108K.

That leaves 13K for August spillover + normal allocation. That sounds more than enough to cover entire August leaving 19K purely for September.

I just read your post after posting my summary understanding, this calculation looks quite good it definitely makes me veer towards 19K for September.

gchopeful123

07-15-2011, 01:46 PM

Q & T,

In that case, is PD of Sep 2007 a possibility in the Sep 2011 VB - either with business as usual or with BTM?

Thanks

kolugc

07-15-2011, 01:53 PM

True, I did not realize until you pointed this out. I am pretty new and wandering around for any piece of info and found this. Thanks H...

Thanks for the link K. Looks like the author of this blog is a regular reader amongst us :). Whatever is written on his blog has been discussed here by the Guru's which cannot be co-incidence cause of the use of certain terms (ex: PWMB). Anyway, I guess this is another traffic routing gimmick. My 2 cents on this anyways!

sswaitinggc

07-15-2011, 02:06 PM

Kanmani should it be like -> aarambichitangaiya !!!!!!!!!! aarambichitangaiya !!!!!!!!!! :)

aarambichitangaiya !!!!!!!!!!

whereismygclost

07-15-2011, 02:25 PM

gch, SFM is less likely. BTM is possible . Can someone please help me understand what SFM and BTM means? FYI, I looked at the header of the thread but couldn't find SFM or BTM? From the context these look like something related to new 485 intake ...

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 02:28 PM

sorry header updated.
gch, SFM is less likely. BTM is possible . Can someone please help me understand what SFM and BTM means? FYI, I looked at the header of the thread but couldn't find SFM or BTM? From the context these look like something related to new 485 intake ...

whereismygclost

07-15-2011, 02:31 PM

Thanks Q! That was FAST!

iamdeb

07-15-2011, 02:33 PM

soggadu stamping is done on passsports that were issued for 5 years. After 10 years of use a passport must be replaced. No exceptions.

Thanks Q for pointing this out. In my case 10 years is going to be up so it will be a new passport.
Will it work if I hand deliver all my documents in Washington( I am in Memphis which falls under that zone) and give a $20 check so that they can mail my new passport? Or,
do I need to personally go again to pick up my passport?

suninphx

07-15-2011, 02:58 PM

Thanks Q for pointing this out. In my case 10 years is going to be up so it will be a new passport.
Will it work if I hand deliver all my documents in Washington( I am in Memphis which falls under that zone) and give a $20 check so that they can mail my new passport? Or,
do I need to personally go again to pick up my passport?

Check on immihelp.com. You will find there all information you are looking for.

soggadu

07-15-2011, 02:58 PM

Thanks Q for pointing this out. In my case 10 years is going to be up so it will be a new passport.
Will it work if I hand deliver all my documents in Washington( I am in Memphis which falls under that zone) and give a $20 check so that they can mail my new passport? Or,
do I need to personally go again to pick up my passport?

hey deb...

http://www.indianembassy.org/index.php?option=com_content&id=167 this link has all the info, you can call or email them if any questions...

soggadu

07-15-2011, 03:01 PM

Just for the heck of it... Why do they call it Green Card? We all need a break from predictions... take a break...

Stemcell

07-15-2011, 03:22 PM

Just for the heck of it... Why do they call it Green Card? We all need a break from predictions... take a break...

I asked this question to a friend long time ago and his instantaneous response was " I guess becoz its not green ! " :cool:

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 03:27 PM

Its like what does GNU stands for ? The answer is "GNU stands for GNU is not UNIX" :)

I asked this question to a friend long time ago and his instantaneous response was " I guess becoz its not green ! " :cool:

soggadu

07-15-2011, 03:31 PM

I asked this question to a friend long time ago and his instantaneous response was " I guess becoz its not green ! " :cool:

i was thinking more on the lines of getting more greenery in the bank account... or might be environment friendly... damn every thing needs assumptions!!!!!!!

Monica12

07-15-2011, 03:37 PM

i was thinking more on the lines of getting more greenery in the bank account... or might be environment friendly... damn every thing needs assumptions!!!!!!!
LOL !
Soggadu, I love your avatar :)

familyguy

07-15-2011, 03:39 PM

Me 2 love it.. its very funny... Stewie is awesome!!!

LOL !
Soggadu, I love your avatar :)

soggadu

07-15-2011, 03:41 PM

This is my first visit/post but I am sure several ppl who come to this site also strongly believe in other orgs who are sincerely working/advocating for the EB community.
We should focus here just on predictions and data analysis instead of taking a dig at others. If the latter happens, I doubt I personally am interested in coming here.

So all you want to say is concentrate on predictions right...dont worry dude...once we are into Aug first week we will be in full swing doing that... until then i recommend look into old posts and ask any questions... as you are already here.. just chill and know people around... not playing a good guy here, but can't see someone having a bad friday... chil and let chil...

soggadu

07-15-2011, 03:42 PM

LOL !
Soggadu, I love your avatar :)

:) i am as eager and would be doing as much dancing once i receive my cards...

Monica12

07-15-2011, 03:45 PM

:) i am as eager and would as much dancing once i receive my cards...

LOL! I wonder how I would celebrate once I get mine........:)

soggadu

07-15-2011, 03:46 PM

LOL! I wonder how I would celebrate once I get mine........:)

dont worry there would be someone singing "Monicaaaaaa" song for you lol...

Monica12

07-15-2011, 03:48 PM

dont worry there would be someone singing "Monicaaaaaa" song for you lol...

Soggadu...You are cracking me up....... :D

Monica12

07-15-2011, 03:49 PM

Q, Have you thought of how you are going to celebrate once you get greened ....:) :)

soggadu

07-15-2011, 03:50 PM

Soggadu...You are cracking me up....... :D

remember it's friday... Ye Friday na milegi dubaara... (there would be another friday though)... glad someone is able to smile amidst all this... chiloooraama...

soggadu

07-15-2011, 03:51 PM

Q, Have you thought of how you are going to celebrate once you get greened ....:) :)

he would be standing in Q to visit more places...i remember he wants to take his kids to tour india on train...

Monica12

07-15-2011, 03:58 PM

he would be standing in Q to visit more places...i remember he wants to take his kids to tour india on train...
Soggadu, you are toooo... funny!
La..la.laaa.... It's Fryeeeeday..... (trying to break the tension...):cool:

grnwtg

07-15-2011, 04:00 PM

he would be standing in Q to visit more places...i remember he wants to take his kids to tour india on train...

I also like to know how you are going to celebrate after getting GC...

soggadu

07-15-2011, 04:19 PM

Thank you sir for the request.. i was about to do that..

damn you guys(sarcastic way)... people just started thinking i am funny and you want to remove those pages!!!!! remove them as needed... but make sure to acknowledge that i am funny...

Monica12

07-15-2011, 04:21 PM

damn you guys(sarcastic way)... people just started thinking i am funny and you want to remove those pages!!!!! remove them as needed... but make sure to acknowledge that i am funny...
LOL ! I agree...:D

soggadu

07-15-2011, 04:28 PM

LOL ! I agree...:D

:) thnx... anyway so long my friends...this GC mess cant stop me from watching Harry Puthar...bole toh first day first show... will definitely open a new thread posting the review ;-)...

July2007PD

07-15-2011, 04:48 PM

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

Alright friends .... so here is the answer to my own question.

Oct - Apr Total EB Approvals = 925
May - Jul 15 i.e. Today Total EB Approvals = 828
Jul 2011 Approvals As of 15 July = 158
Second half of July possible approvals = 158 MAX (based on June trend of 30% approvals in second half and 70% in first half).

if 925 = 52K, then 828 = 47K. Assuming remaing July yields another 158 approvals = 9K.

Thus trackitt approximation of total allocated through end of July = 108K.

That leaves 13K for August spillover + normal allocation. That sounds more than enough to cover entire August leaving 19K purely for September.

Kanmani all we have here is a blog. We don't have organizational structure to make it happen. Personally I don't think I have the skills and time to do advocacy. I know that I do have skills to bring clarity to GC process. But if a group emerges from this community that wants to do advocacy... I will sure support the group and follow the lead.

Leo I should say sorry. I didn't mean to criticize you. Just tried to say what I said, as a matter of fact. But probably it came out a bit strong.

sjkumar

07-15-2011, 04:51 PM

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

That will be Prediction with Assumptions.

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 04:54 PM

19K is total left. Of that how much comes to EB2IC is the question. The estimates are
3K - Jun 2011
5K - Jul 2011
8K - Aug 2011 + possible BTM

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

pch053

07-15-2011, 04:58 PM

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

As Q mentioned in the earlier posts, 19K of visas will translate to 5K of spillovers (another calculation estimated around 8K spillovers) to EB2-I/C. So, if 5K spillovers are available, the dates should move to end of June/1st week of July (there are ~4,400 people for EB2-I/C with PDs between April 15 and June 30). If the spillover is greater than 5K, the dates will go well into July or maybe into or past Aug, if the number is 8K.

tanu_75

07-15-2011, 05:05 PM

So if we will still have 19K left does that mean dates will move into Aug 2007 in September is that the conclusion or prediction ?

To get beyond July 2007, i.e to clear the inventory, after next month (assuming demand is cleared till mid April 2007), it'll need approximately 7.5k visas. However the new 485 apps (from PWMB + Porting) could eat into that mix.

pch053

07-15-2011, 05:40 PM

I think some of the porting cases can consume a portion of the available spillovers but I doubt whether that many PWMB cases (most of PWMB cases will be on or after March-April'07) will be approved by the end of this year (in that case, it needs to be approved in less than 3 months which is a bit unlikely). I think PWMB cases will come into play much more in the coming year.

whereismygclost

07-15-2011, 06:04 PM

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 06:08 PM

Bingo! That's exactly where my head is.

Based on the news of 19K spillover left in September out of which 5K to 8K might got to EB2-I/C,NVC Fee Notices(nobody is talking about them anymore!),Only 6 weeks movement in Aug bulletin,I would like to put forward a theory here.May be in Sept bulletin we see BTM(upto Q1 2008) and also NOTE agencies have a cover to justify that supply(if around 8K) is more than demand (around 7.5K) based on the latest demand data(10.5K) and subsequent reduction based on Aug bulletin(3K).Also by moving the dates conservatively in Aug bulletin they have temporarily shut out PWMB demand showing up.All ducks in place for BTM?Gurus,please comment.May be I am trying to add some positive spin to my weekend! Hope is always eternal!

gchopeful123

07-15-2011, 06:35 PM

If this is indeed true, then it's a master stroke from CO. If there is BTM in Sep VB, then CO deserves honorary citizenship of India and China.

Bingo! That's exactly where my head is.

Originally Posted by whereismygclost
Based on the news of 19K spillover left in September out of which 5K to 8K might got to EB2-I/C,NVC Fee Notices(nobody is talking about them anymore!),Only 6 weeks movement in Aug bulletin,I would like to put forward a theory here.May be in Sept bulletin we see BTM(upto Q1 2008) and also NOTE agencies have a cover to justify that supply(if around 8K) is more than demand (around 7.5K) based on the latest demand data(10.5K) and subsequent reduction based on Aug bulletin(3K).Also by moving the dates conservatively in Aug bulletin they have temporarily shut out PWMB demand showing up.All ducks in place for BTM?Gurus,please comment.May be I am trying to add some positive spin to my weekend! Hope is always eternal!

Gclongwait

07-15-2011, 06:37 PM

Bingo! That's exactly where my head is.

Thats precisely what I have been thinking. I just cant believe that the NVC fee notices were a random occurance. Also if you start mapping the dates then reported fee notices are till June 2008. It looks like there are enough visa numbers till July1 07 right now. That makes it almost exactly a 1 year fwd movement. Not just that if you start looking at next year Q1 2008 is kind of at the boundary where people in Mar 2008 may or may not get a visa. Taking applications till Q2 2008 will ensure that there will be more applicants than visas, and also they wont flood USCIS with more I485's than they can adjudicate in 9 months.

Just my optimistic thoughts on this. The only actual supporting arguments I have are the fee notices.

Pdmar08

07-15-2011, 08:27 PM

Hahaha...savva rupaya, naral, shawl and Indian citizenship.[Rs.1.25, coconut, shawl(doh) and indian citizenship(dooohhh)]. i wonder how CO would look in that.
And for those who are wondering..no i m not back from happy hours...still at work.

If this is indeed true, then it's a master stroke from CO. If there is BTM in Sep VB, then CO deserves honorary citizenship of India and China.

Pdmar08

07-15-2011, 08:30 PM

I pledge not to get my hopes of applying for AOS this year.

Thats precisely what I have been thinking. I just cant believe that the NVC fee notices were a random occurance. Also if you start mapping the dates then reported fee notices are till June 2008. It looks like there are enough visa numbers till July1 07 right now. That makes it almost exactly a 1 year fwd movement. Not just that if you start looking at next year Q1 2008 is kind of at the boundary where people in Mar 2008 may or may not get a visa. Taking applications till Q2 2008 will ensure that there will be more applicants than visas, and also they wont flood USCIS with more I485's than they can adjudicate in 9 months.

Just my optimistic thoughts on this. The only actual supporting arguments I have are the fee notices.

veni001

07-15-2011, 08:30 PM

Based on the news of 19K spillover left in September out of which 5K to 8K might got to EB2-I/C,NVC Fee Notices(nobody is talking about them anymore!),Only 6 weeks movement in Aug bulletin,I would like to put forward a theory here.May be in Sept bulletin we see BTM(upto Q1 2008) and also NOTE agencies have a cover to justify that supply(if around 8K) is more than demand (around 7.5K) based on the latest demand data(10.5K) and subsequent reduction based on Aug bulletin(3K).Also by moving the dates conservatively in Aug bulletin they have temporarily shut out PWMB demand showing up.All ducks in place for BTM?Gurus,please comment.May be I am trying to add some positive spin to my weekend! Hope is always eternal!

Bingo! That's exactly where my head is.

Thats precisely what I have been thinking. I just cant believe that the NVC fee notices were a random occurance. Also if you start mapping the dates then reported fee notices are till June 2008. It looks like there are enough visa numbers till July1 07 right now. That makes it almost exactly a 1 year fwd movement. Not just that if you start looking at next year Q1 2008 is kind of at the boundary where people in Mar 2008 may or may not get a visa. Taking applications till Q2 2008 will ensure that there will be more applicants than visas, and also they wont flood USCIS with more I485's than they can adjudicate in 9 months.

Just my optimistic thoughts on this. The only actual supporting arguments I have are the fee notices.

Assuming that the information our friends (MITBBS) received through FOIA is accurate and NVC fee requests reported until few months back are legitimate and SOFAD available for September is at least equal to EB2CI pending inventory until July 2007 then ... there is strong possibility for BTM in Sept 2011 Bulletin.

snathan

07-15-2011, 08:48 PM

Assuming that the information our friends (MITBBS) received through FOIA is accurate and NVC fee requests reported until few months back are legitimate and SOFAD available for September is at least equal to EB2CI pending inventory until July 2007 then ... there is strong possibility for BTM in Sept 2011 Bulletin.

Sorry for this question. How authentic this FOIA news is...when the Aug. bulletin was taken off for couple of hours, the same website claimed there was a error and the actual PD is going to be 2008 Apr. But it was not true...

nishant2200

07-15-2011, 09:44 PM

Sorry for this question. How authentic this FOIA news is...when the Aug. bulletin was taken off for couple of hours, the same website claimed there was a error and the actual PD is going to be 2008 Apr. But it was not true...

snathan, I think that someone had just given a suggestion that it might be a typo, but it got portrayed as if it's official information. This is my impression at least.

MeraNoAayega

07-15-2011, 09:48 PM

myfr66

07-15-2011, 10:32 PM

qesehmk

07-15-2011, 11:02 PM

I wouldn't be surprised because we havebeen speculating that for quite a while.
The other information that was posted in hte morning if true could mean that EB2IC could be cleared through Aug 2007 (except PWMBs). So the next logical step is to take in fresh applications.

Question is how large intake is enough. Apparently 1 yr supply worth is the right answer rather than 1 yr demand. So what is 1 yr supply? My first reaction is 15-20K for next year given EB1 and EB2ROW demand may be higher next year. So this could very well be Q2 2008. I need to check.

Q and others, this is posted on mitbbs today. Mr Oppenheim (Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS) said that
Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to
: begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur. I will be
: consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘
: s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the
: advancement of the China/India cut-offs. That information will then be
: compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for
: use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.

Any comments?

whereismygclost

07-15-2011, 11:57 PM

I agree Q . In line to what we have been discussing today evening regarding BTM ....one more confirmation from mitbbs .... we can now infer that Sep Bulletin will be at least till Q1'08 or may be even Q2'08. This is also inline with the NVC Fee Notices sent apparently up to June'08!!

I wouldn't be surprised because we havebeen speculating that for quite a while.
The other information that was posted in hte morning if true could mean that EB2IC could be cleared through Aug 2007 (except PWMBs). So the next logical step is to take in fresh applications.

Question is how large intake is enough. Apparently 1 yr supply worth is the right answer rather than 1 yr demand. So what is 1 yr supply? My first reaction is 15-20K for next year given EB1 and EB2ROW demand may be higher next year. So this could very well be Q2 2008. I need to check.

veni001

07-16-2011, 07:53 AM

Sorry for this question. How authentic this FOIA news is...when the Aug. bulletin was taken off for couple of hours, the same website claimed there was a error and the actual PD is going to be 2008 Apr. But it was not true...

Q and others, this is posted on mitbbs today. Mr Oppenheim (Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS) said that
Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to
: begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur. I will be
: consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘
: s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the
: advancement of the China/India cut-offs. That information will then be
: compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for
: use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.

Any comments?

I wouldn't be surprised because we havebeen speculating that for quite a while.
The other information that was posted in hte morning if true could mean that EB2IC could be cleared through Aug 2007 (except PWMBs). So the next logical step is to take in fresh applications.

Question is how large intake is enough. Apparently 1 yr supply worth is the right answer rather than 1 yr demand. So what is 1 yr supply? My first reaction is 15-20K for next year given EB1 and EB2ROW demand may be higher next year. So this could very well be Q2 2008. I need to check.

I hope the source is credible, we had this discussion before any BTM could be similar to F2A movement last year.

qesehmk

07-16-2011, 10:19 AM

Yesterday was an interesting day when we received the information about 19K possible visas in September of which 5-8K could come to EB2IC. I have updated the head with all that information gist now.

victorian

07-16-2011, 10:40 AM

I hope the source is credible, we had this discussion before any BTM could be similar to F2A movement last year.

I don't think BTM quite conveys the sentiment. It should be Big Ass Movement aka BAM!

Sorry, that is about as much as my intellect allows me to contribute here.

Congratulations to Q and all others who are current in the Aug Bulletin (including me, WOOOT!!). Good luck to all others in the Sept bulletin. This site is my go to source for all news/analysis/questions GC related. Thanks for everything and do let us know if/when you start accepting donations.

P.S - Nice handling of the troll there, Q. My suggestion - Do not feed the Troll.

GCDespo

07-16-2011, 11:51 AM

Q,The calculation that you did with the trackitt number to prove the information is simply awesome... My hopes are up again. Applying Mathematics for practical use.. simply awesome

qblogfan

07-16-2011, 01:55 PM

The other interesting thing I found is that EB1-China has slowed down significantly from July 1st. They have another forum for China-EB1 on MITBBS. I checked the EB1 forum and I found totally only 2 China-EB1 got approved in the past 16 days. In June EB1-China approval speed was not serisouly slowed down and more than 50 got approved, but this month it is a totally different story, only 2 were approved so far. Trackitt also shows that very limited EB1 and EB2 ROW got approved in July. Although the data is a little thin, I strongly smells the slow down of EB1.

I think it's possible that EB1 will not get too many visas in the last quarter. Maybe EB2-China and India will get the most of the 19k visas due to this reason. The slow down of EB1 is good news for EB2 China and India.

Yesterday was an interesting day when we received the information about 19K possible visas in September of which 5-8K could come to EB2IC. I have updated the head with all that information gist now.

neospeed

07-16-2011, 03:10 PM

The other interesting thing I found is that EB1-China has slowed down significantly from July 1st. They have another forum for China-EB1 on MITBBS. I checked the EB1 forum and I found totally only 2 China-EB1 got approved in the past 16 days. In June EB1-China approval speed was not serisouly slowed down and more than 50 got approved, but this month it is a totally different story, only 2 were approved so far. Trackitt also shows that very limited EB1 and EB2 ROW got approved in July. Although the data is a little thin, I strongly smells the slow down of EB1.

I think it's possible that EB1 will not get too many visas in the last quarter. Maybe EB2-China and India will get the most of the 19k visas due to this reason. The slow down of EB1 is good news for EB2 China and India.

WOW interesting finding. Thanks for the info. Very hard to navigate thru that site.

qblogfan

07-16-2011, 03:28 PM

Spectator

07-16-2011, 05:05 PM

The other interesting thing I found is that EB1-China has slowed down significantly from July 1st. They have another forum for China-EB1 on MITBBS. I checked the EB1 forum and I found totally only 2 China-EB1 got approved in the past 16 days. In June EB1-China approval speed was not serisouly slowed down and more than 50 got approved, but this month it is a totally different story, only 2 were approved so far. Trackitt also shows that very limited EB1 and EB2 ROW got approved in July. Although the data is a little thin, I strongly smells the slow down of EB1.

I think it's possible that EB1 will not get too many visas in the last quarter. Maybe EB2-China and India will get the most of the 19k visas due to this reason. The slow down of EB1 is good news for EB2 China and India.qblogfan,

Thank you for posting such interesting information.

The number of China cases on Trackitt is too low to get meaningful information such as you have provided on trends.

I think it generally true that EB1 approvals dry up a bit at the end of the year as the focus shifts to EB2-CI. For instance, EB1-ROW did not receive any approvals on Trackitt in September 2010.

Spectator

07-16-2011, 05:45 PM

Q and others, this is posted on mitbbs today. Mr Oppenheim (Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS) said that

Once the date reaches August 15, 2007 it will be necessary to begin advancing the cut-off date so that filings can occur.

I will be consulting with USCIS in an attempt to determine the amount of EB-2 I-40 ‘s which are pending, and eligible for potential filing based on the advancement of the China/India cut-offs.

That information will then be compared with the amount of numbers which I believe will be available for use during FY-2012, and that will determine how I move the cut-offs.

Any comments?myfr66,

If true, that would seem to answer one of the big questions.

Many have said that if actual demand reaches zero, that CO must make the dates Current.

That does not appear to be the case from the above statement.

The Cut Off Dates will move consistent with how much demand CO believes will be generated, whether it is documentarily qualified or not at the time the Cut Off Dates are advanced to allow a new intake.

I guess DOS could ensure they have at least one CP case documentarily qualified with a late enough PD.

It also might mean that the advancement could take place at any time, if the dates are moved purely to generate a new intake. Perhaps that's a bit speculative.

Overall, I think that is a good thing.

I am surprised that DOS do not already have this information, since there have been rumours about this for some time.

I hope it is an update rather than an attempt to get this information from USCIS for the first time. If not, who knows how long it might take to compile!

One thing is clear. There are no thoughts of making EB2-CI Current.

veni001

07-16-2011, 07:49 PM

Yes, I searched the China EB1 forum and found China EB1 only got 2 approved. In the past, at least 50-70 EB1-China approvals were reported monthly. This month I only saw 2. The China EB1 are saying that USCIS is focusing on EB2 China/India now, so EB1 is very slow in this month. They are complaining about the low speed of EB1 due to spillover season. We have been waiting for 4-5 years and they only waited for several months, but they are complaining about EB2. I can't believe it. There is a slight chance the EB1 speed may pick up in the end of this month after all the EB2 China/Inida cases before March 8 2007 are approved. I think this month USCIS is overwhelmed by China/India EB2. Today alone I saw at least 40-50 China EB2 approvals on MITBBS.

qblogfan,

Thank you for posting such interesting information.

The number of China cases on Trackitt is too low to get meaningful information such as you have provided on trends.

I think it generally true that EB1 approvals dry up a bit at the end of the year as the focus shifts to EB2-CI. For instance, EB1-ROW did not receive any approvals on Trackitt in September 2010.

It could also be most of the pending EB1C485 got processed(approval/denial)?
Looking at June 2011 EB Pending Inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf) provide the following breakdown...

EB1C - 13.6%
EB1I -18.7%
EB1ROW - 67.05%
EB1M-P - 0.65%

desi4green

07-16-2011, 07:54 PM

qblogfan

07-16-2011, 09:18 PM

No, actually many EB1-China applicants are complaining in their forum. Apparently a bunch of these guys are still waiting, but very few got approved in this month.

This EB1 China forum has much traffic and they seldom use trackitt. Most of the EB1-China applicants discuss applications and progress on this forum, so it has a huge pool for me to observe this trend. In June EB1-China was not slowing down too much, but this month very very few cases got approved. As far as EB2 C&I can keep USCIS busy, very few EB1 cases can be approved. This will help EB2 C&I in a short run, and it may yield more spillover for the last VB. Keep fingers crossed.

It could also be most of the pending EB1C485 got processed(approval/denial)?
Looking at June 2011 EB Pending Inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf) provide the following breakdown...

EB1C - 13.6%
EB1I -18.7%
EB1ROW - 67.05%
EB1M-P - 0.65%

qblogfan

07-16-2011, 09:26 PM

Yes, I agree. I think it's very possible that USCIS are focusing on EB2 China and India in this month. Totally they need to approve around 11k cases in this month. The EB1-China forum has such a large pool that almost every EB1-China I know visits that forum on a regular basis. I am confident about this trend that EB1 is slowing down in July.

Keep fingers crossed and wish all of us good luck.

qblogfan,

Thank you for posting such interesting information.

The number of China cases on Trackitt is too low to get meaningful information such as you have provided on trends.

I think it generally true that EB1 approvals dry up a bit at the end of the year as the focus shifts to EB2-CI. For instance, EB1-ROW did not receive any approvals on Trackitt in September 2010.

veni001

07-16-2011, 10:48 PM

No, actually many EB1-China applicants are complaining in their forum. Apparently a bunch of these guys are still waiting, but very few got approved in this month.

This EB1 China forum has much traffic and they seldom use trackitt. Most of the EB1-China applicants discuss applications and progress on this forum, so it has a huge pool for me to observe this trend. In June EB1-China was not slowing down too much, but this month very very few cases got approved. As far as EB2 C&I can keep USCIS busy, very few EB1 cases can be approved. This will help EB2 C&I in a short run, and it may yield more spillover for the last VB. Keep fingers crossed.

qblogfan,
I am not sure the volume of EB1C cases vs the approvals on the other forum. The reason behind my assumption is, June 2011 inventory was out (if i remember correct) some time end of May 2011, so if there are more EB1C approvals reported in June means there may not be very many (filed after May 2011) to approve under current processing time frame by Q4(July-Sept)?

trackitgc

07-16-2011, 11:14 PM

Hi Q, If you don't mind can you please add a section "Last Updated Date" at the top of the section on the first page, so that when we start reading we know when you have updated it. I visit ur section almost every other day and just check to see if you have updated the first page :) and I'm sure there are a lot like me.

qesehmk

07-16-2011, 11:31 PM

trackitgc, any post if updated has "Last edited by xxxxx; <Day> at xx:xx " line at hte bottom of the post. Just check one post above yours here that veni has updated.

Similarly the first post will have the same information. This is built in forum software.

Hi Q, If you don't mind can you please add a section "Last Updated Date" at the top of the section on the first page, so that when we start reading we know when you have updated it. I visit ur section almost every other day and just check to see if you have updated the first page :) and I'm sure there are a lot like me.

qblogfan

07-16-2011, 11:59 PM

I looked further into the inventory data. I checked the previous inventory reports.

Oct 2010: EB1-China has 1053 pending cases

Jan 2011: EB1-China has 1079 pending cases

June 2011: EB1-China has 1359 pending cases

You can see the EB1-China inventory number has been stable in the previous three inventory reports. Therefore, I think the decrease of EB1-China approvals in July is not a result of decreased demand. In the past, I could see approved EB-1 China cases almost everyday, but it is not happening any more in July. On that forum many EB1-China cases were submitted in Feburary, but they are still pending.

qblogfan,
I am not sure the volume of EB1C cases vs the approvals on the other forum. The reason behind my assumption is, June 2011 inventory was out (if i remember correct) some time end of May 2011, so if there are more EB1C approvals reported in June means there may not be very many (filed after May 2011) to approve under current processing time frame by Q4(July-Sept)?

veni001

07-17-2011, 04:43 PM

nishant2200

07-17-2011, 05:02 PM

Noticed following approval posted in Murthy Forums
================================================== ====
Priority Date: June, 2006
Category: EB2
Country: India
I-485 Receipt Date (For me and Spouse): May 11th, 2011
FP Done: June 17th, 2011
I-485 approved and cards received (For me and Spouse): July 11th, 2011
================================================== =====

Veni, this is good information. A while back I had posted on this forum, that for clear cut cases, I am seeing 2 months approval times, and not just for India, also for EB2-ROW. This confirms that hypothesis.

This also might indicate why CO might have chosen to have short movement in July, to limit the number of PWMBs who could get in and be eligible for demand. This may be taken as fuel to the fire about the meticulous planning being attempted to have a BTM in upcoming bulletin(s).

veni001

07-17-2011, 05:04 PM

Hi Q, T, V,..... experts.

Have some questions for you guys

First our situation: We are one of those folks that are part of July 2007 fiasco with our pd in Dec 2007. To explain our pd, we had two cases and one with EB3I 2006 and EB2I Dec 2007 and we had to pick one because of an RFE. With no hopes of EB3, we selected EB2 2007. We both have our EAD and AP and way past the 180 day period.

Situation: Primary applicant now has a job offer in a different company with better pay + more but new company was told that they DON'T need to sponsor anything.
New employer need to support AC21

Problem: We are not sure whether the old company will pull out the I140 or not.
As long as you file AC21, this shouldn't be an issue.

What should we do. Is it better to let the new company know. From what I understand, At the 485 stage, we just need a job that matches the description and dont really need a company's sponshorship and hence we said "no" to requires sponsorship.
New employer doesn't have to start from scratch, but should support AC21

What happens if old company pulls out 140?As long as you file AC21, nothing happens.Otherwise you may receive RFE for employment offer/verification
What happens if old company does not and USCIS asks for job verification letter later when they are ready to process the file? You have(with help from employer) to submit AC21 documentation

What would you guys do?File for AC21 as soon as accepting new offer.

Please see my responses above!

nishant2200

07-17-2011, 05:04 PM

I looked further into the inventory data. I checked the previous inventory reports.

Oct 2010: EB1-China has 1053 pending cases

Jan 2011: EB1-China has 1079 pending cases

June 2011: EB1-China has 1359 pending cases

You can see the EB1-China inventory number has been stable in the previous three inventory reports. Therefore, I think the decrease of EB1-China approvals in July is not a result of decreased demand. In the past, I could see approved EB-1 China cases almost everyday, but it is not happening any more in July. On that forum many EB1-China cases were submitted in Feburary, but they are still pending.

qbf, thanks for the info. everything helps in extrapolating the vision.

It must be a good place to be in for EB1 I or C in any case, you know the light is always at the end of the tunnel, albeit a few twist or turns maybe, unlike the rest of us still groping around!

veni001

07-17-2011, 05:13 PM

Veni, this is good information. A while back I had posted on this forum, that for clear cut cases, I am seeing 2 months approval times, and not just for India, also for EB2-ROW. This confirms that hypothesis.

This also might indicate why CO might have chosen to have short movement in July, to limit the number of PWMBs who could get in and be eligible for demand. This may be taken as fuel to the fire about the meticulous planning being attempted to have a BTM in upcoming bulletin(s).

nishant2200,
Based on PERM certification breakdown for CY2007 after July 2007 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), there are not very many EB2IC PWMBs until June 2007.
Up-to 15APR2007(August 2011 Visa Bulletin) EB2IC PWMb should be about 1K !

nishant2200

07-17-2011, 05:21 PM

nishant2200,
Based on PERM certification breakdown for CY2007 after July 2007 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), there are not very many EB2IC PWMBs until June 2007.
Up-to 15APR2007(August 2011 Visa Bulletin) EB2IC PWMb should be about 1K !

Got it, it removes a mis-conception from my head then. So are they in June to August 15th in a considerably higher number?

nishant2200

07-17-2011, 05:23 PM

veni001

07-17-2011, 05:29 PM

Got it, it removes a mis-conception from my head then. So are they in June to August 15th in a considerably higher number?

Acutally the link you have posted has my answer, very good information analysis. thanks. let me read through it and think over.

nishant2200,
EB2IC PWMB should be about1.5k per month in June'07 and July'07.
Aug'07-Dec'07 we will consider it as normal demand (since dates are never "C" for these PDs), EB2IC should average about 2.5k - 3.0k per month based on above PERM data.

qesehmk

07-17-2011, 05:51 PM

Added to header one more explanation of why September may have about 19K numbers of which 5-10K could easily come to EB2IC.

mesan123

07-17-2011, 06:26 PM

Is there a way to findout how many i-140 are approved in eb2( for years 2008,2009,2010 &2011). wanted to know the number of people waiting in this years. tnx in advance

qblogfan

07-17-2011, 06:56 PM

Thanks for posting this information.

It makes perfect sense that Mr.Co moved August PD in a smaller step in order to control the PWMB approvals. Therefore, the number of visas can be saved for the next big jump.

I think Mr.Co and USCIS really want to clean the 2007 wave. It will make his book look good and his boss happy. It will be a win-win situation.

Noticed following approval posted in Murthy Forums
================================================== ====
Priority Date: June, 2006
Category: EB2
Country: India
I-485 Receipt Date (For me and Spouse): May 11th, 2011
FP Done: June 17th, 2011
I-485 approved and cards received (For me and Spouse): July 11th, 2011
================================================== =====

veni001

07-17-2011, 07:46 PM

Is there a way to findout how many i-140 are approved in eb2( for years 2008,2009,2010 &2011). wanted to know the number of people waiting in this years. tnx in advance

nnnnn123,
We have monthly PERM approval and i140 receipts data since October 2008 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI) posted in FACTS AND DATA section.

veni001

07-17-2011, 07:50 PM

mesan123

07-17-2011, 08:06 PM

to Veni:

thank you for the reply.

Based on the link you provided are there 66426(EB2 & EB3 for india and china together)? can you tell me how to know how many are eb2 out of this?

thanx in advance

imdeng

07-17-2011, 08:14 PM

I had written earlier that the last VB actually made it more likely that there would be BTM - it seems the newly available data supports that. I think it will all get tied together with the fee receipts in the end. Who knew that USCIS/DoS actually have a plan and seems like a pretty good plan as well. Makes me almost hopeful for future, Almost.

veni001

07-17-2011, 08:18 PM

to Veni:

thank you for the reply.

Based on the link you provided are there 66426(EB2 & EB3 for india and china together)? can you tell me how to know how many are eb2 out of this?

thanx in advance

nnnnn123,
Assuming all certified PERMs will make it to i140 stage, Calender Year(CY) monthly PERM breakdown (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown))(by Spec) will give you better picture of projected EB2IC demand.

I would take the following split(average) for EB2:EB3 (both I&C)
FY 2007 & 2008 - 65:35
FY 2009 & 2010 - 70:30
FY2011 forward - 75:25
You may also want to check PERM FY-CY Matrix (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI).

nishant2200

07-17-2011, 09:22 PM

nnnnn123,
Assuming all certified PERMs will make it to i140 stage, Calender Year(CY) monthly PERM breakdown (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown))(by Spec) will give you better picture of projected EB2IC demand.

I would take the following split(average) for EB2:EB3 (both I&C)
FY 2007 & 2008 - 65:35
FY 2009 & 2010 - 70:30
FY2011 forward - 75:25
You may also want to check PERM FY-CY Matrix (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI).

Veni, just based off the Perm breakdowns by PD, I have done some analysis.

I must admit, I started looking at the facts and data seriously today. I am just finished understanding: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29

Spec, and all of you guru's, this is really stupendous. Bow down.

Below, I am trying to attempt a calculation of what a BTM would yield in terms of demand by each month beginning from August 2007.

For 2007, I am taking the recommended 65:35 split and since not all PERM lead to a 140, and not all 140 are approved, and also even for an approved 140, it may not be the case that an 485 will necessarily be filed, it may be an abandoned 140. So I am going to say only 90% of the PERMs lead to a 485. I am going to take 2.2 as the dependant factor.

For 2007, I am only looking at certifications made after August 17th, 2007 table. Also I am only counting from April 2007 onwards, and taking 310 / 2 = 155 for April 15th to end of april. I am going to list the data then based on above and information already compiled in fact and data section, cumulatively, until Q1 2008, to try to understand the answer the query of CO to USCIS, “How many approved I-140 for EB2 upto Q1 2008 until when I have sent NVC notices, so that I can estimate 485 demand and move dates, based on the SOFAD data of FY 2011, now for year 2012?”

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 90% factor -- 2.2 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 3070 -- 6,754
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 4,411 -- 9,705
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,948 -- 13,084
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 7,371 -- 16,216
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 8,685 -- 19,107

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 19,107 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 10,510 -- 23,122
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 12,230 -- 26,906
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 13,643 -- 30,015

Hence, BTM upto Q1 2008 is yielding approximately 30k demand. If we assume 6k porting, that’s 36k demand, which is comparing very nicely on the projected SOFAD of this year.

Friends, please feel free to comment on this logic, as well as draw interpretations based on this. If anything incorrect, let me know, I will correct.

This is my first attempt at actual calculations, based on existing data already gathered with hard work by the gurus here.

veni001

07-17-2011, 09:48 PM

Veni, just based off the Perm breakdowns by PD, I have done some analysis.

I must admit, I started looking at the facts and data seriously today. I am just finished understanding: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29

Spec, and all of you guru's, this is really stupendous. Bow down.

Below, I am trying to attempt a calculation of what a BTM would yield in terms of demand by each month beginning from August 2007.

For 2007, I am taking the recommended 65:35 split and since not all PERM lead to a 140, and not all 140 are approved, and also even for an approved 140, it may not be the case that an 485 will necessarily be filed, it may be an abandoned 140. So I am going to say only 90% of the PERMs lead to a 485. I am going to take 2.2 as the dependant factor.

For 2007, I am only looking at certifications made after August 17th, 2007 table. Also I am only counting from April 2007 onwards, and taking 310 / 2 = 155 for April 15th to end of april. I am going to list the data then based on above and information already compiled in fact and data section, cumulatively, until Q1 2008, to try to understand the answer the query of CO to USCIS, “How many approved I-140 for EB2 upto Q1 2008 until when I have sent NVC notices, so that I can estimate 485 demand and move dates, based on the SOFAD data of FY 2011, now for year 2012?”

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 90% factor -- 2.2 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 3070 -- 6,754
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 4,411 -- 9,705
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,948 -- 13,084
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 7,371 -- 16,216
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 8,685 -- 19,107

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 19,107 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 10,510 -- 23,122
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 12,230 -- 26,906
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 13,643 -- 30,015

Hence, BTM upto Q1 2008 is yielding approximately 30k demand. If we assume 6k porting, that’s 36k demand, which is comparing very nicely on the projected SOFAD of this year.

Friends, please feel free to comment on this logic, as well as draw interpretations based on this. If anything incorrect, let me know, I will correct.

This is my first attempt at actual calculations, based on existing data already gathered with hard work by the gurus here.

nishant2200,
Your numbers are somewhat on the high side, If you look at EBIC PERM Certifications (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), CY2007 & CY2008 have almost same number of (I&C) PERM Certifications! If we use the known IC demand for 2007 and do the projections (Spec discussed this approach few pages back) then we are looking at an additional 10K EB2I and 4K EB2C demand until 01JAN2008. Same approach will yield about 30K EB2IC demand for CY 2008 (or about 7.5K per quarter).

You may want to check i140 to 485 ratios (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)) posted under FACTS AND DATA section(EB2 averaging about 2.04).

qblogfan

07-17-2011, 10:38 PM

nishant, thanks for your analysis and hard work.

Your number is very close to my estimation. My number is a little lower than yours, but really close. Several months ago on MITBBS I estimated the demand before 6/30/2008 will be around 35k plus porting number.

Your logic makes perfect sense. My personal feeling is that in the next VB they may move PD exactly one year ahead-4/15/2008. Keep fingers crossed!

Veni, just based off the Perm breakdowns by PD, I have done some analysis.

I must admit, I started looking at the facts and data seriously today. I am just finished understanding: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29

Spec, and all of you guru's, this is really stupendous. Bow down.

Below, I am trying to attempt a calculation of what a BTM would yield in terms of demand by each month beginning from August 2007.

For 2007, I am taking the recommended 65:35 split and since not all PERM lead to a 140, and not all 140 are approved, and also even for an approved 140, it may not be the case that an 485 will necessarily be filed, it may be an abandoned 140. So I am going to say only 90% of the PERMs lead to a 485. I am going to take 2.2 as the dependant factor.

For 2007, I am only looking at certifications made after August 17th, 2007 table. Also I am only counting from April 2007 onwards, and taking 310 / 2 = 155 for April 15th to end of april. I am going to list the data then based on above and information already compiled in fact and data section, cumulatively, until Q1 2008, to try to understand the answer the query of CO to USCIS, “How many approved I-140 for EB2 upto Q1 2008 until when I have sent NVC notices, so that I can estimate 485 demand and move dates, based on the SOFAD data of FY 2011, now for year 2012?”

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 90% factor -- 2.2 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 3070 -- 6,754
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 4,411 -- 9,705
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,948 -- 13,084
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 7,371 -- 16,216
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 8,685 -- 19,107

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 19,107 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 10,510 -- 23,122
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 12,230 -- 26,906
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 13,643 -- 30,015

Hence, BTM upto Q1 2008 is yielding approximately 30k demand. If we assume 6k porting, that’s 36k demand, which is comparing very nicely on the projected SOFAD of this year.

Friends, please feel free to comment on this logic, as well as draw interpretations based on this. If anything incorrect, let me know, I will correct.

This is my first attempt at actual calculations, based on existing data already gathered with hard work by the gurus here.

nishant2200

07-17-2011, 11:28 PM

nishant2200,
Your numbers are somewhat on the high side, If you look at EBIC PERM Certifications (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), CY2007 & CY2008 have almost same number of (I&C) PERM Certifications! If we use the known IC demand for 2007 and do the projections (Spec discussed this approach few pages back) then we are looking at an additional 10K EB2I and 4K EB2C demand until 01JAN2008. Same approach will yield about 30K EB2IC demand for CY 2008 (or about 7.5K per quarter).

You may want to check i140 to 485 ratios (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)) posted under FACTS AND DATA section(EB2 averaging about 2.04).

nishant, thanks for your analysis and hard work.

Your number is very close to my estimation. My number is a little lower than yours, but really close. Several months ago on MITBBS I estimated the demand before 6/30/2008 will be around 35k plus porting number.

Your logic makes perfect sense. My personal feeling is that in the next VB they may move PD exactly one year ahead-4/15/2008. Keep fingers crossed!

Veni, qblogfan, I made some adjustments. Thanks for feedback. I kind of wanted to get hands dirty and get a feel of things myself, for personal satisfaction and education.

I understand the model of Spec, where in since PERM certifications are same, we are projecting similar trend. Still for academic sake, I would like to further refine this simple model I earlier thought. Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143

BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.

Hence scenarios:

BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand

qblogfan, for reasons unknown to my own mind, I too get a feeling of April 15th 2008, same as you. Sometimes, matters of the heart, cannot really be understood by mind, and have no scientific explanation.

Now if we say that FY 2012 demand generation fresh intake would be based on SOFAD of FY 2011, and if FY 2011 SOFAD is around 35k which it looks like based on recent FOIA - invoke - cause effect news, then at least Q1 2008 sounds very plausible.

At this point, I feel that anyone upto Jan 1st, 2008, should be almost certain of a green card in FY 2012, while upto April 15th 2008 to July 1st 2008, may get EAD for certain. When the fresh intake will be taken for the above to happen, that if the 19k left for September news is true, may happen next bulletin, and if that news is not true, then may "start" in around Q3 beginning or late Q2 in FY 2012.

imdeng

07-18-2011, 12:00 AM

I am thinking of a scenario that might have an effect on SOFAD calculations in future. Right now South Korea gets a lot of EB2 numbers (4793 in FY2010, compared to 19961 for India and 6505 for China, as per the DOS annual report) and should really be retrogressed - but avoids that fate because its FB+EB numbers are below the 7% threshold. Now, if it happens to hit that limit, then it will be subject to the usual EB2 quota of 2.8K and anything over that will be part of the backlog - so essentially 2K extra numbers for the across portion of SOFAD to India/China.

Do we know if Korea is close to hitting the 7% limit like India and China already have?

Update: Turns out that Korea's FB usage is really low - just 2592 in FY2010 compared to 16022 for India and 14551 for China - data from DOS annual report. So I guess its not hitting the 7% limit anytime soon. The 7% rule sucks BTW - its horrible that even in EB3, some countries get a lot more than 2.8K that India and China get. Similarly in EB2, Korea crosses 2.8K without any retrogression. Why link FB with EB - makes no sense!

nishant2200

07-18-2011, 12:12 AM

imdeng, a Korean co-worker tells me of wide spread fraud by Korean companiea here, who are twisting tweaking stuff n Koreans working crazy long hours to get their EB2s. Too much detail don't know, but for sure that explains high EB usage by Korea.

imdeng

07-18-2011, 12:13 AM

Regarding BTM - I know we are all wishing for a large BTM (or BAM as was suggested a few posts before) - we should keep in mind though that we actually would not want the BTM to be too large - it should be just enough to finish by the end of next spillover season with small enough gap between demand and supply (demand > supply) that the gap can be filled by CP and a new BTM can be generated for the year after.

In case the BTM right now is too large and the SOFAD next year is not large enough to cover it then at this time next year we will not have the possibility of the next BTM. This will be a bad situation because then we will not have pre-adjudicated cases for the 2014 spillover season.

shreyasai2004

07-18-2011, 12:22 AM

Hi Gurus.

What is the chances of September VB. What will next PD in September VB.

Thanks,

Shreya

imdeng

07-18-2011, 12:24 AM

Nishant - I personally don't have a problem with Koreans (or anybody) working crazy hours to file EB2 - but I have a problem with stupid rules that allow one country to be retrogressed for close to a decade and allow other countries to get more visas than the retrogressed countries.

BTW - the whole idea of a fixed numerical limit that is same for China and for Chad (less population than Shanghai itself) is completely ridiculous. Anyways - its just a rant - the rules are what they are - we need to work with the system - so lets get back to calculations and predictions. Great work on calculating demand sizes for different BTMs Nishant.

imdeng, a Korean co-worker tells me of wide spread fraud by Korean companiea here, who are twisting tweaking stuff n Koreans working crazy long hours to get their EB2s. Too much detail don't know, but for sure that explains high EB usage by Korea.

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 12:37 AM

I have the same feelings with you. I have no issue with other ethnic groups. Some South Koreans can get EB2 in several months, but China/India applicants need to wait for at least 4-5 years. Our waiting time is almost 10 times of South Koreans. Every year a large number of South Korean applicants can get EB2 done in several months. Even for EB3, China EB3 only has several thousand demand, but the PD for China EB3 only moved 1 week in this bulliten. Indian EB3 applicants have to wait for ten years or more to get a green card. Many people gave up opportunities to visit family back in India/China because of the long wait of GC. Many Indian/China applicants have to stay on the same position for ten years or more. This system is not humane at all. The purpose of this 7% limit is to keep a balance of immigration from different countries, but it does not help much because several millions Mexican folks already crossed border without paper work. This 7% rule was designed to prevent the appearance of a dorminant immigration group, but it already failed big time.

I wish all the Indian/Chinese EB2/EB3 applicants can end this long wait and get GC as soon as possible.

Nishant - I personally don't have a problem with Koreans (or anybody) working crazy hours to file EB2 - but I have a problem with stupid rules that allow one country to be retrogressed for close to a decade and allow other countries to get more visas than the retrogressed countries.

BTW - the whole idea of a fixed numerical limit that is same for China and for Chad (less population than Shanghai itself) is completely ridiculous. Anyways - its just a rant - the rules are what they are - we need to work with the system - so lets get back to calculations and predictions. Great work on calculating demand sizes for different BTMs Nishant.

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 12:41 AM

Your updated version is perfect! Thanks for your analysis.

Let's keep our fingers crossed and see what will happen in the next VB.

Veni, qblogfan, I made some adjustments. Thanks for feedback. I kind of wanted to get hands dirty and get a feel of things myself, for personal satisfaction and education.

I understand the model of Spec, where in since PERM certifications are same, we are projecting similar trend. Still for academic sake, I would like to further refine this simple model I earlier thought. Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143

BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.

Hence scenarios:

BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand

qblogfan, for reasons unknown to my own mind, I too get a feeling of April 15th 2008, same as you. Sometimes, matters of the heart, cannot really be understood by mind, and have no scientific explanation.

Now if we say that FY 2012 demand generation fresh intake would be based on SOFAD of FY 2011, and if FY 2011 SOFAD is around 35k which it looks like based on recent FOIA - invoke - cause effect news, then at least Q1 2008 sounds very plausible.

At this point, I feel that anyone upto Jan 1st, 2008, should be almost certain of a green card in FY 2012, while upto April 15th 2008 to July 1st 2008, may get EAD for certain. When the fresh intake will be taken for the above to happen, that if the 19k left for September news is true, may happen next bulletin, and if that news is not true, then may "start" in around Q3 beginning or late Q2 in FY 2012.

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 12:52 AM

Something off the topic: I think the other reason for the huge number of Korean applicants is that a large number of Korean students are studying in the graduate schools in US. The number of Korean students is very close to Chinese/Indian students in US. I heard the average income in South Korea is pretty high, but the living cost is even higher. Every immigrant just wants to have a better life here, it's understandable.

imdeng, a Korean co-worker tells me of wide spread fraud by Korean companiea here, who are twisting tweaking stuff n Koreans working crazy long hours to get their EB2s. Too much detail don't know, but for sure that explains high EB usage by Korea.

imdeng

07-18-2011, 07:54 AM

If the objective of the BTM is to build a pipeline for next spillover season then it does not make sense to keep different PDs for India and China since they will come together during spillover season anyway. If there would be a BTM then I imagine it would have the same PD for India and China. There is really no reason to keep them different and add another reason of complexity.

If it is so, and If Uscis look into the I140 approval statistics to discuss with Dos for moving dates , I dont think they combine I&C data for decision.
I guess , I &C will get diff cut off dates even if it is 1 year movement .

Spectator

07-18-2011, 07:57 AM

Nishant

Is it the demand includes China figues too?

If it is so, and If Uscis look into the I140 approval statistics to discuss with Dos for moving dates , I dont think they combine I&C data for decision.

I guess , I &C will get diff cut off dates even if it is 1 year movement .Kanmani,

I understand why you are saying that, but since those numbers could only be allocated during spillover season, wouldn't they have to share the same Cut Off date?

In that case, combining China & India totals presents no problems. I agree China and India will have different Cut Off Dates leading up to the FY2012 spillover season.

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 09:02 AM

Total EB2-China demand before 1/1/2008 should be around 3k.

I also calculated the EB2-China demand before 6/30/2008 should be around 5k.

I think it's possible EB-2 China will get ahead of EB-2 India during the first 2 or 3 quarters, but still the yearly visa number for China can not meet the yearly demand. We will have to rely on spillover in the next summer.

Kanmani,

I understand why you are saying that, but since those numbers could only be allocated during spillover season, wouldn't they have to share the same Cut Off date?

In that case, combining China & India totals presents no problems. I agree China and India will have different Cut Off Dates leading up to the FY2012 spillover season.

grnwtg

07-18-2011, 09:26 AM

Veni, qblogfan, I made some adjustments. Thanks for feedback. I kind of wanted to get hands dirty and get a feel of things myself, for personal satisfaction and education.

I understand the model of Spec, where in since PERM certifications are same, we are projecting similar trend. Still for academic sake, I would like to further refine this simple model I earlier thought. Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143

BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.

Hence scenarios:

BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand

qblogfan, for reasons unknown to my own mind, I too get a feeling of April 15th 2008, same as you. Sometimes, matters of the heart, cannot really be understood by mind, and have no scientific explanation.

Now if we say that FY 2012 demand generation fresh intake would be based on SOFAD of FY 2011, and if FY 2011 SOFAD is around 35k which it looks like based on recent FOIA - invoke - cause effect news, then at least Q1 2008 sounds very plausible.

At this point, I feel that anyone upto Jan 1st, 2008, should be almost certain of a green card in FY 2012, while upto April 15th 2008 to July 1st 2008, may get EAD for certain. When the fresh intake will be taken for the above to happen, that if the 19k left for September news is true, may happen next bulletin, and if that news is not true, then may "start" in around Q3 beginning or late Q2 in FY 2012.

Veni, qblogfan, I made some adjustments. Thanks for feedback. I kind of wanted to get hands dirty and get a feel of things myself, for personal satisfaction and education.

I understand the model of Spec, where in since PERM certifications are same, we are projecting similar trend. Still for academic sake, I would like to further refine this simple model I earlier thought. Just based on simple PERM data. I adjusted the rate of PERM to 485 to 80% ( I had earlier thought 80% instead of 90% but thought maybe I am being too negative, but after being pointed out the Spec’s projection model and qblogfan’s calculation, I think 80% is good enough), and also downed the dependent to 2.04 from 2.2.

Upto End of month year (cumulative) -- PERMs -- EB2 split -- 80% factor -- 2.04 dependant factor and hence the demand generated for movement until this end of month date

August 2007 -- 5,248 -- 3,411 -- 2,729 -- 5,567
September 2007 -- 7,541 -- 4,902 -- 3,922 -- 8,001
October 2007 -- 10,167 -- 6,608 -- 5,286 -- 10,784
November 2007 -- 12,600 -- 8,190 -- 6,552 -- 13,366
December 2007 -- 14,846 -- 9,650 -- 7,720 -- 15,748

BTM upto Jan 1st, 2008 would yield 15,748 demand. For below 2008, I am assuming 70:30 split for EB2

January 2008 -- 17,743 -- 11,678 -- 9,342 -- 19,058
February 2008 -- 20,473 -- 13,589 -- 10,871 -- 22,177
March 2008 -- 22,716 -- 15,159 -- 12,127 -- 24,739
April 15th 2008 -- 24,072 -- 16,109 -- 12,887 -- 26,289
April 30th 2008 -- 25,429 -- 17,058 -- 13,646 -- 27,839
May 2008 -- 27,939 -- 18,815 -- 15,052 -- 30,706
June 2008 -- 30,073 -- 20,309 -- 16,247 -- 33,143

BTM upto April 15th 2008 would yield 26k demand, and upto June 2008 33k demand.

Hence scenarios:

BTM to Jan 1st 2008: 15.5k + 6k porting = 21.5k demand
BTM to April 15th 2008: 26k + 6k porting = 32k demand
BTM to July 1st 2008: 33k + 6k porting = 39k demand

qblogfan, for reasons unknown to my own mind, I too get a feeling of April 15th 2008, same as you. Sometimes, matters of the heart, cannot really be understood by mind, and have no scientific explanation.

Now if we say that FY 2012 demand generation fresh intake would be based on SOFAD of FY 2011, and if FY 2011 SOFAD is around 35k which it looks like based on recent FOIA - invoke - cause effect news, then at least Q1 2008 sounds very plausible.

At this point, I feel that anyone upto Jan 1st, 2008, should be almost certain of a green card in FY 2012, while upto April 15th 2008 to July 1st 2008, may get EAD for certain. When the fresh intake will be taken for the above to happen, that if the 19k left for September news is true, may happen next bulletin, and if that news is not true, then may "start" in around Q3 beginning or late Q2 in FY 2012.

Nishant,
Calculations look pretty neat according to the numbers available.

1) In 2007, from previous inventory, i see that there are average ~2000 pending applicants/months for IC ( July is unusual as lot more used some others labor certs) with many labors being substitutes ( from my friends sample, 50% are substitutes).
2) If i look at my Masters friends, many people got married to fellow students ( especially girls), 80 to 90% of those labors/I140 did not/will not convert to 485's ( we can consider most of them are Girls)
3) My friends/peers close to 100 students community and around 30H1B friends who did not file/used labors till July 2007 -- only 10-15 of us did not get a chance to file I-485 and almost 90% of remaining people got their GC's already.

Looking at above personal sample - i am feeling 33k from August'2007 to June'2008 is little more??
Probably my circle of friends are different?
Does any one have this kind of experience?

2.04 dependent factor is probably good number.

nishant2200

07-18-2011, 09:42 AM

imdeng, qblogfan, Yes, me too not having any problems with any group or country. It is what it is, just knowing information helps in planning our lives and better prepared, as is the motto of this forum. qblogfan, I agree with your point about students from K, in my time at university, lots of graduate students almost equaling I were from K, and most of them took lot of smoke breaks below the library :D . My co-worker tells me it's a very common scene along all US universities.

Kanmani, the numbers are for I and C combined. Thanks to Spectator for having the base data compiled to allow further interpretations like this. I agree that C has much less demand and they would be in much better place if not for starvation due to backlogged I. So they may be in a forward date already next year before SO, but in SO season, as well all know, the assignment of visas is strictly in PD order, so I would like to say, they will be pegged at a same date as India, and hence, to make things simpler, I think the BTM will also be for a same date for I and C.

grnwtg, I agree with your thoughts. Even one of my friends recently married a citizen. And also other points you mentioned. Basically, people realize the problems and are trying to work their way around them. This is human behavior, to adapt and survive! My figures admittedly are on high side, but I like to be conservative. We may introduce one more factor into the final column, called hardship factor, maybe say a 0.9, and say the real figure is only 90% of the last column. That would make the 33k a 29.7k and added with porting, would equal the 35k approximated by qblogfan.

I also said my thoughts about people with Jan 1st 2008, getting GC for almost sure, while after that, EAD for sure, because of my feeling that next year, actual SOFAD might be less, because of various factors, like backlog reduction of EB1 & EB2 ROW, policy favoring EB5, economy being bit better than this year, Porting gaining a bit of a traction because of people having qualified due to side by side education or gaining in experience, people in EB1 and EB2 NIW learning from this year's scrutiny and being better prepared... and so on, more maybe thought. But a 20k SOFAD seems to be very certain inspite of all this, hence I thought until Jan 1st 2008, very good chance.

bieber

07-18-2011, 09:56 AM

Expecting BTM in septemeber bulletin may be stretch, as per the information posted CO said once Aug15th 2007 is reached then there will be considerations for intake.

so, If infact the dates will move to Aug15 in next bulletin, may be then BTM can be expected in the following month.

familyguy

07-18-2011, 10:10 AM

Guys, not sure if I missed something, but is the source reliable? are we over reacting? Few days ago when the bulletin was pulled back there were rumors saying that the date will be moved to April 2008.. is this the same guy who is saying that there are 19K visas left?

Expecting BTM in septemeber bulletin may be stretch, as per the information posted CO said once Aug15th 2007 is reached then there will be considerations for intake.

so, If infact the dates will move to Aug15 in next bulletin, may be then BTM can be expected in the following month.

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 10:19 AM

The other thing I want to add is that many NIW applicants have got their GC through EB1. As far as I know, many Chinese NIW applicants published more papers during the waiting and upgraded to EB1. It's possible the real demand is smaller than our expectation. I agree that 20k SOFAD is the least number we can get next year.

Keep fingers crossed.

imdeng, qblogfan, Yes, me too not having any problems with any group or country. It is what it is, just knowing information helps in planning our lives and better prepared, as is the motto of this forum. qblogfan, I agree with your point about students from K, in my time at university, lots of graduate students almost equaling I were from K, and most of them took lot of smoke breaks below the library :D . My co-worker tells me it's a very common scene along all US universities.

Kanmani, the numbers are for I and C combined. Thanks to Spectator for having the base data compiled to allow further interpretations like this. I agree that C has much less demand and they would be in much better place if not for starvation due to backlogged I. So they may be in a forward date already next year before SO, but in SO season, as well all know, the assignment of visas is strictly in PD order, so I would like to say, they will be pegged at a same date as India, and hence, to make things simpler, I think the BTM will also be for a same date for I and C.

grnwtg, I agree with your thoughts. Even one of my friends recently married a citizen. And also other points you mentioned. Basically, people realize the problems and are trying to work their way around them. This is human behavior, to adapt and survive! My figures admittedly are on high side, but I like to be conservative. We may introduce one more factor into the final column, called hardship factor, maybe say a 0.9, and say the real figure is only 90% of the last column. That would make the 33k a 29.7k and added with porting, would equal the 35k approximated by qblogfan.

I also said my thoughts about people with Jan 1st 2008, getting GC for almost sure, while after that, EAD for sure, because of my feeling that next year, actual SOFAD might be less, because of various factors, like backlog reduction of EB1 & EB2 ROW, policy favoring EB5, economy being bit better than this year, Porting gaining a bit of a traction because of people having qualified due to side by side education or gaining in experience, people in EB1 and EB2 NIW learning from this year's scrutiny and being better prepared... and so on, more maybe thought. But a 20k SOFAD seems to be very certain inspite of all this, hence I thought until Jan 1st 2008, very good chance.

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 10:21 AM

I think it is reliable. This guy/girl emailed Mr. CO and this information is from the email.

Last time the rumor about VB typo was a joke and nobody was serious about it.

Guys, not sure if I missed something, but is the source reliable? are we over reacting? Few days ago when the bulletin was pulled back there were rumors saying that the date will be moved to April 2008.. is this the same guy who is saying that there are 19K visas left?

Feb2008

07-18-2011, 10:23 AM

Like a lot of us, s/he was hoping it was a typo when the August VB was out.
NO, somebody else dug out 19k.

Guys, not sure if I missed something, but is the source reliable? are we over reacting? Few days ago when the bulletin was pulled back there were rumors saying that the date will be moved to April 2008.. is this the same guy who is saying that there are 19K visas left?

iamdeb

07-18-2011, 10:33 AM

I am not sure its reliable at all.It was way off mark with Aug prediction.It predicted massive movement in August.
Q,Spec,Veni and Teddy do a much better job here backed with solid data and stats.

qesehmk

07-18-2011, 10:50 AM

Friends ... i wouldn't have quoted the chiense source had i not sensed some credibility. We will know better in September of course.

I am not sure its reliable at all.It was way off mark with Aug prediction.It predicted massive movement in August.
Q,Spec,Veni and Teddy do a much better job here backed with solid data and stats.

qbf why woud you say that? Next year EB1 and EB2ROW might come back roaring. Especially EB1? This year we received sofad not because the demand itself was low. But because that demand became backlogged in those 2 categories.

I agree that 20k SOFAD is the least number we can get next year.

bieber

07-18-2011, 10:57 AM

This year we received sofad not because the demand itself was low. But because that demand became backlogged in those 2 categories.

Q,

EB1 demand was considerably low for fy2011, right? are you saying the 12k that CO announced in April was due to backlog not because of existing low demand and projecting low demand?

grnwtg

07-18-2011, 11:04 AM

Just a Look at trackitt data for month of July '2011 - EB2 Approvals:
India: 176
China: 2
rest of world: 11
Total : 189

sunny4gc

07-18-2011, 11:11 AM

What would be the prediction for Cutoff date for September '2011 ?

iamdeb

07-18-2011, 11:13 AM

Friends ... i wouldn't have quoted the chiense source had i not sensed some credibility. We will know better in September of course.

qbf why woud you say that? Next year EB1 and EB2ROW might come back roaring. Especially EB1? This year we received sofad not because the demand itself was low. But because that demand became backlogged in those 2 categories.

Q, I will take your word on it. But I am wondering why Mr. CO will reply to any persons e-mail. If such was the case then any of us could open up that communication channel to know about potential movements. Am I missing something here?

grnwtg

07-18-2011, 11:19 AM

qesehmk

07-18-2011, 11:25 AM

Q,

EB1 demand was considerably low for fy2011, right? are you saying the 12k that CO announced in April was due to backlog not because of existing low demand and projecting low demand?
The fundamental demand at labor 140 level is not any lower. It was denied/choked at 485 level. The one that was denied doesn't come back in 2012 to EB1. It could still come back to EB2ROW. The one that was choked i.e. backlogged (~6-8K) will come back in EB1 itself.

Q, I will take your word on it. But I am wondering why Mr. CO will reply to any persons e-mail. If such was the case then any of us could open up that communication channel to know about potential movements. Am I missing something here?
My gut feel more than anything. Maybe other chinese people on this forum can explain better; the google translation is difficult but what i read told me they have a standing mechanism - a legal one - to get info from VO. And I think its something different that FOIA (freedom of information act) that you and I also have.

desi4green

07-18-2011, 11:34 AM

leo07

07-18-2011, 11:37 AM

This sounds interesting...could have been the consequence of their court-case last year.
If some of our Chinese friends can confirm that would be great.

VO communicating with people had happened before, CO's emails that got posted on the forum looked authentic too. Only thorn for me is the 'several months' movement that was speculated for August-VB, that did not happen. It could have been a translation error too, because it did move more than a month forward?

...they have a standing mechanism - a legal one - to get info from VO. And I think its something different that FOIA (freedom of information act) that you and I also have.

qesehmk

07-18-2011, 11:42 AM

I that should be all you need from employer. Just like 485 - AC21 is a form filed by candidate not by the employer. It is another matter some employers keep filing 485 and keep paying all EAD and 131 expenses.

What does it mean when you say "New employer needs to support AC21". They do provide a immigration verification letter that states all the criteria except for detailed job description. Is involvement of new employer really required other than providing immigration verification letter + detailed job description?

Thanks for your help in advance.

This sounds interesting...could have been the consequence of their court-case last year.
If some of our Chinese friends can confirm that would be great.

VO communicating with people had happened before, CO's emails that got posted on the forum looked authentic too. Only thorn for me is the 'several months' movement that was speculated for August-VB, that did not happen. It could have been a translation error too, because it did move more than a month forward?
Thank you Leo. I think that is probably right. Again if the chinese source himself could come here and help us understand that would be best. If not anybody else who may have insight is welcome to explain.

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 11:49 AM

The news of "several months movement" was from a guy who had communications with Mr.CO. Nobody could verify his identity. Additionally that email was from Mr.CO three weeks before the VB, so it's possible Mr.Co changed his mind or something came up.

The news of 19k visa left was from the Chinese NIU immigration organization, which has some credibility. People donated money to NIU and I think they are serious/responsible for what they say.

This sounds interesting...could have been the consequence of their court-case last year.
If some of our Chinese friends can confirm that would be great.

VO communicating with people had happened before, CO's emails that got posted on the forum looked authentic too. Only thorn for me is the 'several months' movement that was speculated for August-VB, that did not happen. It could have been a translation error too, because it did move more than a month forward?

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 11:54 AM

Yes, I think my estimation of 20k is a little optimistic. Considering the increasing EB1/EB2 ROW I-140 pending numbers, we may see less than 20k next year. It will be tough next year. I hope it will not go too bad because there are still tons of Indian/Chinese 2008-2011 EB2 waiting for 485 submission.

Friends ... i wouldn't have quoted the chiense source had i not sensed some credibility. We will know better in September of course.

qbf why woud you say that? Next year EB1 and EB2ROW might come back roaring. Especially EB1? This year we received sofad not because the demand itself was low. But because that demand became backlogged in those 2 categories.

leo07

07-18-2011, 11:55 AM

Thanks qblogfan!

I was under the impression that both the news is from same source. If that's not true, my whole premise falls apart. Actually, I want it fall apart :) Thanks again!

The news of "several months movement" was from a guy who had communications with Mr.CO. Nobody could verify his identity. Additionally that email was from Mr.CO three weeks before the VB, so it's possible Mr.Co changed his mind or something came up.

The news of 19k visa left was from the Chinese NIU immigration organization, which has some credibility. People donated money to NIU and I think they are serious/responsible for what they say.

iamdeb

07-18-2011, 12:01 PM

veni001

07-18-2011, 12:04 PM

I that should be all you need from employer. Just like 485 - AC21 is a form filed by candidate not by the employer. It is another matter some employers keep filing 485 and keep paying all EAD and 131 expenses.

What does it mean when you say "New employer needs to support AC21". They do provide a immigration verification letter that states all the criteria except for detailed job description. Is involvement of new employer really required other than providing immigration verification letter + detailed job description?

Thanks for your help in advance.

It basically employment verification letter(similar to the one filed with 485) from new employer. Remember new Job must to "similar" to the JD in i140 on-file. Once you have this letter either you/your attorney can send a memo explaining that you want to invoke AC21 and change employer.

In most cases when some one doesn't file AC21, when the old employer request USCIS to withdraw underlying i140, will get NOID/RFE for employment verification.

vizcard

07-18-2011, 12:06 PM

familyguy

07-18-2011, 12:15 PM

qblogfan, thanks for the clarification.. hope we will get out of this mess soon....

The news of "several months movement" was from a guy who had communications with Mr.CO. Nobody could verify his identity. Additionally that email was from Mr.CO three weeks before the VB, so it's possible Mr.Co changed his mind or something came up.

The news of 19k visa left was from the Chinese NIU immigration organization, which has some credibility. People donated money to NIU and I think they are serious/responsible for what they say.

soggadu

07-18-2011, 12:25 PM

Just a Look at trackitt data for month of July '2011 - EB2 Approvals:
India: 176
China: 2
rest of world: 11
Total : 189

r u sure about the numbers? Spec have them at 159 for India...

soggadu

07-18-2011, 12:27 PM

I know individual cases cannot (will not?) be answered but I figured its worth a shot. All the projections for BTM point to Q2 2008-ish. Any idea what the implications are for those PDs in July / Aug / Sept 2008.

I'm a 8/20/2008 PD so this obviously means something to me.

PS: Brilliant job on these analyses. These are all projections and may be off but the analysis and logic is solid.

Viz... if you look at the analysis, if there is any BTM this year then it might go up to Q1 2008. For ur PD i guess it would be the same time next year ( if we have any BTM this FY )...

nishant2200

07-18-2011, 12:40 PM

Yes, I think my estimation of 20k is a little optimistic. Considering the increasing EB1/EB2 ROW I-140 pending numbers, we may see less than 20k next year. It will be tough next year. I hope it will not go too bad because there are still tons of Indian/Chinese 2008-2011 EB2 waiting for 485 submission.

guys, I also think so, didn't want to put it too forcefully as it would kind of disappoint. But 20k sounds like the plateau to reach next year. Honestly, EB2 I needs a SO each year to move at all, because the normal quota will be eaten up by porting totally.

qesehmk

07-18-2011, 12:56 PM

grnwtg

07-18-2011, 12:57 PM

r u sure about the numbers? Spec have them at 159 for India...
My filter are I485 approved on July 2011 to July 2011

category EB2,

For India alone there are 177 cases.

soggadu

07-18-2011, 01:19 PM

My filter are I485 approved on July 2011 to July 2011

category EB2,

For India alone there are 177 cases.

oh ok... might be those cases were added after 8:30 EDT... but anyway thanks for the update... i hope this number goes above 400 by EOM...

pch053

07-18-2011, 01:23 PM

i case some of you missed it, i have updated the header to reflect a visa-usage-equation that Spec introduced. Based on that info basically we concluded that movement in August bulletin is based on spillover created upto end of July.

Any additional spillover from August or September will come from the 19K numbers - minimum being 4-5K but decent chance of upto 10K. Indicating that Sep bulletin dates could move in a sustainable manner between last week of June to mid august. Sustainable => there won't be any retrogression into 2012 prior to these dates.
Q,
If there are 10K spillovers in the month of Sep, then some of the spillovers will go to EB3, right? Even though Veni pointed out a PWMB case that got approved in ~2 months, I guess it will be difficult to approve PWMB cases that might be submitted in Sep within 30 days (and most of PWMBs have June, July'07 PDs). My understanding is that if there are 4-5K spillovers, EB2-I/C PDs will be somewhere around July (maybe BTM might also come into play to take in new cases) and if there are 10K spillovers, EB2-I/C will be approved up to mid Aug'07 and there will be 2K - 3K spillovers for EB3-ROW. Am I correct in my understanding here?

krishnav

07-18-2011, 01:27 PM

i case some of you missed it, i have updated the header to reflect a visa-usage-equation that Spec introduced. Based on that info basically we concluded that movement in August bulletin is based on spillover created upto end of July.

Any additional spillover from August or September will come from the 19K numbers - minimum being 4-5K but decent chance of upto 10K. Indicating that Sep bulletin dates could move in a sustainable manner between last week of June to mid august. Sustainable => there won't be any retrogression into 2012 prior to these dates.

Hi Q and other Gurus,

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept?? It will be painful for someone to wait for 6-8 months for a date movement of 2-3 weeks.

qesehmk

07-18-2011, 01:27 PM

Theoretically possible. But if they are approving PWMBs in a couple of month then the possibility is extremely SMALL.
Q,
If there are 10K spillovers in the month of Sep, then some of the spillovers will go to EB3, right? Even though Veni pointed out a PWMB case that got approved in ~2 months, I guess it will be difficult to approve PWMB cases that might be submitted in Sep within 30 days (and most of PWMBs have June, July'07 PDs). My understanding is that if there are 4-5K spillovers, EB2-I/C PDs will be somewhere around July (maybe BTM might also come into play to take in new cases) and if there are 10K spillovers, EB2-I/C will be approved up to mid Aug'07 and there will be 2K - 3K spillovers for EB3-ROW. Am I correct in my understanding here?

qesehmk

07-18-2011, 01:29 PM

Borderline cases are painful unfortunately. The silver line is .... it only delays your EAD and AC21 status and in no way it will delay your time to GC by more than 6 months MAX that what it would be otherwise had you been able to file this year itself.

Hi Q and other Gurus,

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept?? It will be painful for someone to wait for 6-8 months for a date movement of 2-3 weeks.

soggadu

07-18-2011, 01:32 PM

Q,
If there are 10K spillovers in the month of Sep, then some of the spillovers will go to EB3, right? Even though Veni pointed out a PWMB case that got approved in ~2 months, I guess it will be difficult to approve PWMB cases that might be submitted in Sep within 30 days (and most of PWMBs have June, July'07 PDs). My understanding is that if there are 4-5K spillovers, EB2-I/C PDs will be somewhere around July (maybe BTM might also come into play to take in new cases) and if there are 10K spillovers, EB2-I/C will be approved up to mid Aug'07 and there will be 2K - 3K spillovers for EB3-ROW. Am I correct in my understanding here?

Q... EB3 can get the spilover only when EB2 on the whole is current right....and they are not making EB2 I/C current anytime soon...

qesehmk

07-18-2011, 01:35 PM

Very good point! Agree. In my mind reaching Aug 2007 is becoming current and hence the mistake. I stand corrected by you.

Q... EB3 can get the spilover only when EB2 on the whole is current right....and they are not making EB2 I/C current anytime soon...

soggadu

07-18-2011, 01:43 PM

Very good point! Agree. In my mind reaching Aug 2007 is becoming current and hence the mistake. I stand corrected by you.

Those who make no mistakes are making the biggest mistakes of all — they are attempting nothing new...by someone famous

Spectator

07-18-2011, 01:47 PM

My filter are I485 approved on July 2011 to July 2011

category EB2,

For India alone there are 177 cases.grnwtg,

Don't worry about the difference

The numbers are apples and oranges.

For instance, I only consider Primary approvals, since Trackitt Dependent approvals don't correctly reflect the the 1.1 approvals per Primary seen in real life. I adjust for that later, when converting to "real world" numbers.

The numbers are also adjusted for Country of Chargeability issues and Porting cases still shown as EB3 in Trackitt, plus a few other corrections.

I also include EB2-NIW.

It would be quite difficult to exactly match my figures.

krishnav

07-18-2011, 01:56 PM

Borderline cases are painful unfortunately. The silver line is .... it only delays your EAD and AC21 status and in no way it will delay your time to GC by more than 6 months MAX that what it would be otherwise had you been able to file this year itself.

Agreed..but honestly, I am fine with my GC being late than my EAD being late as it will be useful for my wife to start working. I have a job and dont need any stamping atleast till 2013. So, at this point, I just need an EAD so that my wife can start working as its difficult for her to sit at home doing nothing as she was a working person back in India. I am sure a lot of members here have the same issue.

By the way, I still did not get an answer for my other question..Sorry if it was already answered earlier. I follow the forum regularly..but could have missed it somehow.

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept??

Thanks.

srimurthy

07-18-2011, 01:57 PM

This is quite an active and useful blog. A friend of mine suggested and have been trying to follow for a couple of weeks before joining. Great work guys and a lot of info from the experts for someone like me who is new to the race. keep it up.

indiaeb2

07-18-2011, 02:06 PM

soggadu

07-18-2011, 02:15 PM

Hello Friends - I just joined as a member after reading the post .Awsome predictions. Please can you quide me. My PD is 6th Aug 2007. when do you expect me to atleast file for i485. I missed the last july fisco. Please help me.

you would have got an idea if you have already read the pages... i understand it is hard to cover them all, but just browse last couple and you will find an answer...

soggadu

07-18-2011, 02:18 PM

Agreed..but honestly, I am fine with my GC being late than my EAD being late as it will be useful for my wife to start working. I have a job and dont need any stamping atleast till 2013. So, at this point, I just need an EAD so that my wife can start working as its difficult for her to sit at home doing nothing as she was a working person back in India. I am sure a lot of members here have the same issue.

By the way, I still did not get an answer for my other question..Sorry if it was already answered earlier. I follow the forum regularly..but could have missed it somehow.

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept??

Thanks.

krish... i guess the movement should be same as discussed in the last two pages... please give them a read... and whether it would be a sustained movment or a BTM... as of now it is only guess work... cant say for sure...by the way my pd is oct 22 2007... same boat...

indiaeb2

07-18-2011, 02:18 PM

Thanks Soggadu. I read but not sure what is the final prediction. can you please summarize it or please let me know if i have a chance in sep 2011 to file my 485

Spectator

07-18-2011, 02:19 PM

If the dates move to last week of June to mid August, do you guys think someone with a PD of mid Sept 2007 (13th) will have to wait till the spillover period next year (around May-June) or do you think there will be a slow paced movement of week or two every month after Sept??

Thanks.krishnav,

Because porting and PWMB cases coming on stream can use up the normal allocation, my feeling is that dates wouldn't move much until next spillover season, unless it is done specifically to allow a new intake. The numbers of PWMB ramp up significantly from May onwards.

gc_usa

07-18-2011, 02:26 PM

Agree with this. I checked their site and found that some of their emails from CO in 2010 were accurate for July 2010 bulletin. I had also heard from NIU member on some forum/ call. I do think they work for same cause and may have channel established with CO.

krishnav

07-18-2011, 02:31 PM

krish... i guess the movement should be same as discussed in the last two pages... please give them a read... and whether it would be a sustained movment or a BTM... as of now it is only guess work... cant say for sure...by the way my pd is oct 22 2007... same boat...

Thanks soggadu..I hope the process for both of us gets done as soon as possible if not next month. Good luck!!

krishnav,

Because porting and PWMB cases coming on stream can use up the normal allocation, my feeling is that dates wouldn't move much until next spillover season, unless it is done specifically to allow a new intake. The numbers of PWMB ramp up significantly from May onwards.

OK..thats what I thought..Thanks Spec.

soggadu

07-18-2011, 02:49 PM

Thanks soggadu..I hope the process for both of us gets done as soon as possible if not next month. Good luck!!

Thanks bud... as of now just enjoying with what i have...lets see what sep has in store for us...dont want to keep hopes high... aaya toh aaya baaki sab maaya...

soggadu

07-18-2011, 02:52 PM

Thanks Soggadu. I read but not sure what is the final prediction. can you please summarize it or please let me know if i have a chance in sep 2011 to file my 485

summary is that there is some speculation of more numbers left over for this FY... so they may clear the back log... what they do after that is anybody's guess... this scenario has not come before for EB category...may be an year move or sustained couple of months move or even stay put at July end and clear the PWMBs and porting cases before going forward for a move... all billion dollar questions no body can answer with confidence... i am not sure if i answered ur question or added more confusion to it...but this the reality for now...

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 03:00 PM

I agree with S.

If they don't move PD intentionally for new intake, Indian folks may have to wait for another year to get PD move again. In this FY, Mr.CO didn't move Indian EB2 PD at all before spillover season started in May. For China EB2, they may move PD slowly because there are still around 3000 new demand for 2007 if they can clear 2007 wave.

krishnav,

Because porting and PWMB cases coming on stream can use up the normal allocation, my feeling is that dates wouldn't move much until next spillover season, unless it is done specifically to allow a new intake. The numbers of PWMB ramp up significantly from May onwards.

indiaeb2

07-18-2011, 03:02 PM

Thanks Soggadu. Your last sentense made my day " am not sure if i answered ur question or added more confusion to it."....
I am clear now.. looks like only God knows

vizcard

07-18-2011, 03:02 PM

summary is that there is some speculation of more numbers left over for this FY... so they may clear the back log... what they do after that is anybody's guess... this scenario has not come before for EB category...may be an year move or sustained couple of months move or even stay put at July end and clear the PWMBs and porting cases before going forward for a move... all billion dollar questions no body can answer with confidence... i am not sure if i answered ur question or added more confusion to it...but this the reality for now...

Perfect summary. It's painful to wait especially for those on the cusp both of reality (2007 PDs) and of projections (Q1, Q2 2008).

neospeed

07-18-2011, 03:14 PM

Thanks bud... as of now just enjoying with what i have...lets see what sep has in store for us...dont want to keep hopes high... aaya toh aaya baaki sab maaya...

lol this is so funny :)

aaya toh aaya baaki sab maaya...

soggadu

07-18-2011, 03:19 PM

Perfect summary. It's painful to wait especially for those on the cusp both of reality (2007 PDs) and of projections (Q1, Q2 2008).

not even my PD...but my date of birth is also on cusp.... damn it...now i see the reason why it is all like this... lol...

Monica12

07-18-2011, 03:27 PM

not even my PD...but my date of birth is also on cusp.... damn it...now i see the reason why it is all like this... lol...

LOL!
btw, great summary Soggadu :)

soggadu

07-18-2011, 03:30 PM

LOL!
btw, great summary Soggadu :)

hey...moniiiiicaaaaa... where have you been... i guess with the summary i added more confusion...now everybody is so confused that they stopped asking questions ...lol....welcoming all to the C club... refer to the header to know what C is ;-)....

Monica12

07-18-2011, 03:38 PM

hey...moniiiiicaaaaa... where have you been... i guess with the summary i added more confusion...now everybody is so confused that they stopped asking questions ...lol....welcoming all to the C club... refer to the header to know what C is ;-)....

LOL !
you are toooo... funny Soggadu :) :)
I can't stay away from the C club for too long, now can I ? especially when there is entertainment involved too......

soggadu

07-18-2011, 03:42 PM

LOL !
you are toooo... funny Soggadu :) :)
I can't stay away from the C club for too long, now can I ? especially when there is entertainment involved too......

No you cant... we are all ABCD's for this reason... entertainment is just a by product of C club...

ABCD --> American based confused desi...

Monica12

07-18-2011, 03:47 PM

No you cant... it's in our life style... we are all ABCD's for no reason... entertainment is just a by product of C club...

ABCD --> American based confused desi...

LOL! That is correct.
Hopefully Sep VB will take care of some of that confusion....
Actually, whenever I need some entertainment...I just look at your avatar...it totally cracks me up...

soggadu

07-18-2011, 03:51 PM

LOL! That is correct.
Hopefully Sep VB will take care of some of that confusion....
Actually, whenever I need some entertainment...I just look at your avatar...it totally cracks me up...

yes...through my avatar, i tirelessly keep dancing giving a hope to the EB community... damn... where is my EB2 ratna...

Monica12

07-18-2011, 03:53 PM

lol this is so funny :)

aaya toh aaya baaki sab maaya...

As we get closer and closer to Sep VB, I will start chanting this mantra more and more....:)

Monica12

07-18-2011, 03:54 PM

yes...through my avatar, i tirelessly keep dancing giving a hope to the eb community... Damn... Where is my eb2 ratna...

lmao !!!!!!

cantwaitlonger

07-18-2011, 04:00 PM

I don't know if this is useful data for the number crunchers in this forum...though I'd post anyway.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/i-485-data-2011-april.pdf

qesehmk

07-18-2011, 04:24 PM

Thanks!

This is quite unprecedented. USCIS published demand and split all kinds of 485 into various categories by year EB vs FB vs station.

As you can see the denial rate is huge .. almost 25% for EB this year. This is a good news for next years EB spillover since those people wont be backlogged anymore. Will post later if I find something more interesting.

I don't know if this is useful data for the number crunchers in this forum...though I'd post anyway.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/i-485-data-2011-april.pdf

kd2008

07-18-2011, 04:26 PM

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

bieber

07-18-2011, 04:29 PM

nishant2200

07-18-2011, 04:31 PM

soggadu

07-18-2011, 04:32 PM

man they are denying a lot!

we are not seeing any I/C screaming about denials right... is it happening in ROW domain mainly? just wondering...

Monica12

07-18-2011, 04:34 PM

we are not seeing any I/C screaming about denials right... is it happening in ROW domain mainly? just wondering...

I was thinking the same... there is not much about denials on Trackitt.

kd2008

07-18-2011, 04:35 PM

Spectator

07-18-2011, 04:37 PM

I don't know if this is useful data for the number crunchers in this forum...though I'd post anyway.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/i-485-data-2011-april.pdfcantwaitlonger,

A great find!

It gives insight into the number of approvals from local offices, even if we don't know which EB Category or Country they are in.

It shows how the backlog has reduced, the number of cases that were Current and could be approved from the LO itself. It also shows the Approval /Denial rate.

It perhaps also shows a baseline of cases that are now pending on a monthly basis after the USCIS memo requesting pre-adjudicated cases were sent to TSC.

I don't think I have ever seen a document giving such a detailed peek into the Local Office processing.

soggadu

07-18-2011, 04:37 PM

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

If you look at this document... the denial rate is around 12 %...Oct 10 to Mar 11 only data...

Emp based 485 receipts = 150,227 (damn...isnt 140K for whole year???????????)
approval = 132,603

nishant2200

07-18-2011, 04:39 PM

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

So in Q1, approvals are 24,040 and in Q2 end, 45,981. In Q3 we say at last I and C backlog reduction by more than 20k, so I would put something like 30k for Q3. And one 485 approval means one visa number, so until Q3, 70k only. That don't sound right. I am missing something major here.

About 140, in two Q if we see 30k approvals, and if we extrapolate blindly and say 60k approvals for FY, and each application has a 2 dependant factor, then 120k, which shows demand is not that less, but scrutiny, denials etc is more.

Guys, what thoughts.

Spectator

07-18-2011, 04:40 PM

man they are denying a lot!True, but they were sent to a Local Office for a reason. We might expect the denial rate to be much higher.

Since we don't know what EB Category they are, it is possible many are in EB4, for instance.

kd2008

07-18-2011, 04:40 PM

If you look at this document... the denial rate is around 12 %...Oct 10 to Mar 11 only data...

Emp based 485 receipts = 150,227
approval = 132,603

Not necessarily! Remember Q's equation. You have to take into account actual pending and denied cases to come to a conclusion. We cannot do that based on just receipts and approvals. The approvals may include cases received last year.

soggadu

07-18-2011, 04:46 PM

Not necessarily! Remember Q's equation. You have to take into account actual pending and denied cases to come to a conclusion. We cannot do that based on just receipts and approvals. The approvals may include cases received last year.

ok... but 132K approvals this year already... doesnt that number leave us with 8K (assuming 140K to be total for EB category) for rest of two quarters?....something is not right...either my understanding or the numbers printed...

haripathhi

07-18-2011, 04:47 PM

Thanks for the info KD. However, I am curious about this: How can Approvals be more than Receipts? Or do they count the Approvals for the each individual(s) in a 485 app?

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

qesehmk

07-18-2011, 04:48 PM

Thanks KD. This is yet another great find.

Two GOOD observations (and I am sorry I have to be quick since very busy in the work).

1. The receipts vs approvals for 485 EB is in favor of backlog clearance. So yes a great deal of backlog is cleared. How much is built in EB1 and EB2 ROW can be deduced from the first document that somebody posted an hour earlier.
2. Luckily enough EB5 is not going to lose any of last years sofad. So we will get all of that it looks like.

So bottomline .... the indications are they are serious about clearing backlog as close to Aug 2007 as possible AND take in fresh applications at the same time.

The guideline on taking in fresh applications... is in VO's words - "as much as they could clear next year". So it rules out making teh category current. But keepsthe dooropen for 6-12 months movement past Aug 2007.

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

kd2008

07-18-2011, 04:48 PM

Thanks for the info KD. However, I am curious about this: How can Approvals be more than Receipts? Or do they count the Approvals for the each individual(s) in a 485 app?

Approvals also come from pending cases from previous years, especially the quarter before the start of the fiscal year.

soggadu

07-18-2011, 04:49 PM

Thanks for the info KD. However, I am curious about this: How can Approvals be more than Receipts? Or do they count the Approvals for the each individual(s) in a 485 app?

HP...as KD mentioned "The approvals may include cases received last year" but the receipts are this FY numbers...

bieber

07-18-2011, 04:49 PM

Veni

I140 number of receipts 42,096 is exactly matching with the monthly total that you update in Facts & Data section, approval rate is 73% for 1st half.
If we consider same approval rate for EB2, that will leave us with 5k Eb1

kd2008

07-18-2011, 04:50 PM

ok... but 132K approvals this year already... doesnt that number leave us with 8K (assuming 140K to be total for EB category) for rest of two quarters?....something is not right...either my understanding or the numbers printed...

You are looking the incorrect line. You are looking at I-485 family based. Look one line above that.

soggadu

07-18-2011, 04:53 PM

You are looking the incorrect line. You are looking at I-485 family based. Look one line above that.

cool thanks... i told ya...something is wrong...

Spectator

07-18-2011, 04:54 PM

If you look at this document... the denial rate is around 12 %...Oct 10 to Mar 11 only data...

Emp based 485 receipts = 150,227 (damn...isnt 140K for whole year???????????)
approval = 132,603soggadu,

I think those figures are for Family based I-485.

This provides good validation of the figures obtained by NIU.

Given it is USCIS data, it doesn't include CP cases.

When it rains, it pours!!!!

kd2008

07-18-2011, 05:00 PM

Monica12

07-18-2011, 05:04 PM

soggadu,

I think those figures are for Family based I-485.

This provides good validation of the figures obtained by NIU.

Given it is USCIS data, it doesn't include CP cases.

When it rains, it pours!!!!

Spec, so this data does give even more credibilty to the news Q gave us earlier ?

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 05:06 PM

Yes, the NIU data covers 7 months (10/1/2010-4/30/2011) and this data covers the first 2 quarters.

The difference between the NIU number and this number is about 7k. I think in April USCIS approved 7k.

Now all the data add up and make sense.

soggadu,

I think those figures are for Family based I-485.

This provides good validation of the figures obtained by NIU.

Given it is USCIS data, it doesn't include CP cases.

When it rains, it pours!!!!

Spectator

07-18-2011, 05:09 PM

Spec, doesn't this usage data raise a lot of questions? Especially if DoS decides BTM for next year. I just cannot fathom why DoS hasn't started building the pipeline. There is no way USCIS can intake 40k cases and process them in last 3 months of the year to avoid visa wastage. The first half of the fiscal year would be a perfect time to pre-adjudicate cases. I hope BTM happens in September bulletin.I agree the ideal situation is to take in new cases sooner rather than later, to give the maximum amount of time to adjudicate them. Waiting till July would be far too late, considering background checks etc.

Remember, the figures are for Oct-Mar and there were constraints on how many I-485s could be approved for China & India and possibly Mexico and Philippines.

It therefore doesn't tell us what the "full throttle" capability is.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments. I was hoping the new intake might be taken in as early as September. Now I am not so sure.

whereismygclost

07-18-2011, 05:11 PM

Q,
Thanks for your analysis. What is your personal opinion on the timing of BTM? Is it as early as Sept bulletin or is it more like May'12 bulletin? With PD of Oct,2007 you can understand my anxiety over the same.

Thanks KD. This is yet another great find.

Two GOOD observations (and I am sorry I have to be quick since very busy in the work).

1. The receipts vs approvals for 485 EB is in favor of backlog clearance. So yes a great deal of backlog is cleared. How much is built in EB1 and EB2 ROW can be deduced from the first document that somebody posted an hour earlier.
2. Luckily enough EB5 is not going to lose any of last years sofad. So we will get all of that it looks like.

So bottomline .... the indications are they are serious about clearing backlog as close to Aug 2007 as possible AND take in fresh applications at the same time.

The guideline on taking in fresh applications... is in VO's words - "as much as they could clear next year". So it rules out making teh category current. But keepsthe dooropen for 6-12 months movement past Aug 2007.

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 05:11 PM

I think so.

Everything matched up.

USCIS data shows the total approval is about 45k from Oct.1 to March 30th. The average approval is about 7.5k/month.

Q's news shows the total approval is about 52k from Oct.1 to April 30th. The average approval is about 7.43k/month.

It's really close.

Spec, so this data does give even more credibilty to the news Q gave us earlier ?

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 05:14 PM

I agree with S.

The best situation is that they can accept new cases from September.

However, Mr.CO may postpone it to the next summer. He may think 2-3 months are enough for 485 approval. We should never over estimate the IQ of these officials. They may hold off to the last moment.

I agree the ideal situation is to take in new cases sooner rather than later, to give the maximum amount of time to adjudicate them. Waiting till July would be far too late, considering background checks etc.

Remember, the figures are for Oct-Mar and there were constraints on how many I-485s could be approved for China & India and possibly Mexico and Philippines.

It therefore doesn't tell us what the "full throttle" capability is.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments. I was hoping the new intake might be taken in as early as September. Now I am not so sure.

Spectator

07-18-2011, 05:14 PM

Spec, so this data does give even more credibility to the news Q gave us earlier ?Monica,

Spell out to me what you believe the message was.

Monica12

07-18-2011, 05:15 PM

I think so.

Everything matched up.

USCIS data shows the total approval is about 45k from Oct.1 to March 30th. The average approval is about 7.5k/month.

Q's news shows the total approval is about 52k from Oct.1 to April 30th. The average approval is about 7.43k/month.

It's really close.
qblogfan, Thanks for clearing that up. BTW, I'm really glad you are on this forum :)

kd2008

07-18-2011, 05:18 PM

I agree the ideal situation is to take in new cases sooner rather than later, to give the maximum amount of time to adjudicate them. Waiting till July would be far too late, considering background checks etc.

Remember, the figures are for Oct-Mar and there were constraints on how many I-485s could be approved for China & India and possibly Mexico and Philippines.

It therefore doesn't tell us what the "full throttle" capability is.

I wholeheartedly agree with your sentiments. I was hoping the new intake might be taken in as early as September. Now I am not so sure.

Spec, in some ways September might be an ideal time. Remember last year they ran out of quota around September 15? That way if they do BTM in September then, they approve only the cases for which there are visas available and rest is BTM. This seems logical to me. But who knows what goes thru' CO's mind.

Monica12

07-18-2011, 05:18 PM

I think so.

Everything matched up.

USCIS data shows the total approval is about 45k from Oct.1 to March 30th. The average approval is about 7.5k/month.

Q's news shows the total approval is about 52k from Oct.1 to April 30th. The average approval is about 7.43k/month.

It's really close.

Spec, this is what I was asking. The 19K for September...if that made more sense now.

Spectator

07-18-2011, 05:22 PM

1. The receipts vs approvals for 485 EB is in favor of backlog clearance. So yes a great deal of backlog is cleared. How much is built in EB1 and EB2 ROW can be deduced from the first document that somebody posted an hour earlier.The down side is that although for I-485 there were around 9.5k more approvals than receipts, for I-140 there were 11.3k more Receipts than Approvals.

kd2008

07-18-2011, 05:24 PM

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=820b4b220ea11310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD

Initial Posting Includes Naturalization and Adjustment of Status Performance Data

Released July 18, 2011

WASHINGTON—U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) today announced the availability of new data reports covering agency performance in a broad range of data and operational areas. The reports, prepared at the request of agency stakeholders, advance agency efforts to enhance transparency and improve customer service.

“We are proud to announce that, for the first time, we are able to share performance data in critical areas of this agency’s work,” said USCIS Director Alejandro Mayorkas. “We remain committed to continuing our efforts to be responsive, open and transparent.”

USCIS’ Office of Performance and Quality has now made 10 data sets available to the public on our website at the following address: www.uscis.gov/data. Four of the data sets will be updated monthly; they include processing times and performance data for Form N-400, Application for Naturalization; performance data for Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status; and statistics on Form I-914, Application for T Nonimmigrant Status, and Form I-918, Petition for U Nonimmigrant Status. Forms I-914(T) and I-918(U) are used for victims of trafficking and victims of crime.

Additionally, the following data sets have been published and will be updated quarterly:

Total number of receipts and approvals by quarter and year-to-date for all form types
For Form N-400, Application for Naturalization; performance data for Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status; and statistics on Form I-914, Application for T Nonimmigrant Status, and Form I-918, Petition for U Nonimmigrant Status. Forms I-914(T) and I-918(U) are used for victims of trafficking and victims of crime

USCIS will continue to add more data sets to the web page in the future.

Spectator

07-18-2011, 05:29 PM

Spec, this is what I was asking. The 19K for September...if that made more sense now.Monica,

Sorry for asking - that was exactly the information I needed.

I believe both Q and I believe the 19k covers both August and September.

For different reasons we both believe that in the best case, 8-10k spillover might be available in September, but it is too early to say for sure.

Both of us believe around 4k probably represents the lowest amount.

If I have misrepresented Q's latest thinking, I am sure he will correct me, but I know he is busy with work currently.

neospeed

07-18-2011, 05:31 PM

Monica12

07-18-2011, 05:34 PM

Monica,

Sorry for asking - that was exactly the information I needed.

I believe both Q and I believe the 19k covers both August and September.

For different reasons we both believe that in the best case, 8-10k spillover might be available in September, but it is too early to say for sure.

Both of us believe around 4k probably represents the lowest amount.

If I have misrepresented Q's latest thinking, I am sure he will correct me, but I know he is busy with work currently.
Thanks Spec, Neospeed,
It all makes sense now! :)

mesan123

07-18-2011, 05:48 PM

The down side is that although for I-485 there were around 9.5k more approvals than receipts, for I-140 there were 11.3k more Receipts than Approvals.

I heard there were I-140 rejections this year...as scrutiny is more...heard few of my friends i-140 got rejeceted...

veni001

07-18-2011, 05:59 PM

I don't know if this is useful data for the number crunchers in this forum...though I'd post anyway.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/i-485-data-2011-april.pdf

Q, Please also check out this!

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/all-forms-2011-2nd-Qtr.pdf

Form Receipts Approvals
I-485 36,492 45,981
I-140 42,096 30,820

cantwaitlonger, kd2008;

Great Information!

cantwaitlonger,

A great find!

It gives insight into the number of approvals from local offices, even if we don't know which EB Category or Country they are in.

It shows how the backlog has reduced, the number of cases that were Current and could be approved from the LO itself. It also shows the Approval /Denial rate.

It perhaps also shows a baseline of cases that are now pending on a monthly basis after the USCIS memo requesting pre-adjudicated cases were sent to TSC.

I don't think I have ever seen a document giving such a detailed peek into the Local Office processing.

Spec,
Just looking at the document (EB-485), there is hardly any EB 485 demand left with the local offices as of April 2011?

neospeed

07-18-2011, 06:02 PM

cantwaitlonger, kd2008;

Great Information!

Spec,
Just looking at the document (EB-485), there is hardly any EB 485 demand left with the local offices as of April 2011?

Yes there was memo in dec 2010 to transfer all the local office employment cases to Texas and family based to Nebraska to better manage the pending numbers

Spectator

07-18-2011, 06:06 PM

Info from non immigrant site. Looks like numbers we got from mittbs match:

I-485 Employment Adjustment upto March 2011 approvals are 45,981. At this rate , aprovals for I-485 for full year becomes, 91962. Adding unused visa numbers used so far, total EB visas used for this year becomes 91962+30000 (SO used so far) = 121,962. So atleast 19K looks is still left from whole fiscal year. This suggest published information on www.mitbbs.com is very authentic and we might have anywhere from 12k-19k total EB visas avaiable for EB category for September. Even if we think 9K can be used for all other categories, EB2-IC can receive anywhere from 5k-10K. Even EB3-ROW can end up getting some number.neospeed,

This how I think the 19,000 is derived.

Theoretically, the number of visas issued by the end of July is (9 * 9) + (19/3)% * 140,000 = 122,267 leaving 17,733 remaining for August / September.

Number reported by mitbbs.com = 121,000

Difference = 1,267

Number remaining for 140,000 = 17,733 + 1,267 = 19,000 for August / September

qesehmk

07-18-2011, 06:20 PM

Spec

with the caveat of course that the 19K for Sep+Aug EXCLUDES any EB2IC spillover which is already allocated through end of August.

neospeed,

This how I think the 19,000 is derived.

Theoretically, the number of visas issued by the end of July is (9 * 9) + (19/3)% * 140,000 = 122,267 leaving 17,733 remaining for August / September.

Number reported by mitbbs.com = 121,000

Difference = 1,267

Number remaining for 140,000 = 17,733 + 1,267 = 19,000 for August / September

nishant2200

07-18-2011, 06:33 PM

Dear gurus, once you get time, please put forth summary of any new insight or corroboration on existing views / info we had, based on today's data sheet findings by the forum members.

imdeng

07-18-2011, 06:52 PM

Its a minor quibble - but man is the document difficult to read. I wish they would provide these information in a Excel file as well :-) It is quite amazing data though - its quite a reach for USCIS, which has always been secretive, to start sharing previously hidden data.

I don't know if this is useful data for the number crunchers in this forum...though I'd post anyway.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Reports/Forms-Data/i-485-data-2011-april.pdf

Spectator

07-18-2011, 07:01 PM

Its a minor quibble - but man is the document difficult to read. I wish they would provide these information in a Excel file as well :-) It is quite amazing data though - its quite a reach for USCIS, which has always been secretive, to start sharing previously hidden data.imdeng,

Both sets of data are also available in csv format, which I have imported into Excel.

You can find them if you go to the data home page, then find the relevant report. http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=098a211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=098a211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

veni001

07-18-2011, 07:01 PM

Its a minor quibble - but man is the document difficult to read. I wish they would provide these information in a Excel file as well :-) It is quite amazing data though - its quite a reach for USCIS, which has always been secretive, to start sharing previously hidden data.

imdeng,
Download the CSV format from here (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e093211f28ff0310VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) and open it up in excel.

Spectator

07-18-2011, 07:09 PM

Spec,
Just looking at the document (EB-485), there is hardly any EB 485 demand left with the local offices as of April 2011?Veni,

I think that is possibly a little misleading.

As neospeed noted, the pre-adjudicated cases awaiting a visa have now been sent to TSC.

I have been laboriously compiling the figures of preadjudicated cases at LO all year and there appears to be a churn of around 1-2k that become preadjudicated each month. That is in line with further additions to the USCIS Inventory.

So I think the LO may have a number of different cases pending in any one month. Whether they are sent by the NBC or just come from storage, I don't know.

The LO only appear to be interviewing EB cases just ahead of where the Cut Off Dates are, so I am convinced there are still a very large unknown number of cases still to come through the LO system. The data just provides a snapshot of the situation.

veni001

07-18-2011, 08:04 PM

Veni,

I think that is possibly a little misleading.

As neospeed noted, the pre-adjudicated cases awaiting a visa have now been sent to TSC.

I have been laboriously compiling the figures of preadjudicated cases at LO all year and there appears to be a churn of around 1-2k that become preadjudicated each month. That is in line with further additions to the USCIS Inventory.

So I think the LO may have a number of different cases pending in any one month. Whether they are sent by the NBC or just come from storage, I don't know.

The LO only appear to be interviewing EB cases just ahead of where the Cut Off Dates are, so I am convinced there are still a very large unknown number of cases still to come through the LO system. The data just provides a snapshot of the situation.

Spec,
Since the document only providing information from October 2009 - April 2011, you think still large volume of EB cases are at LO?

I think we discussed this extensively back in January 2011 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)/page27)(posts 661-666) and agreed that this demand will be post August 2005, if existed.

Just looking at PERM Certifications/485 inventories and 485 approvals, i don't think this ("dark demand") is significant!

veni001

07-18-2011, 09:00 PM

Thanks KD. This is yet another great find.

Two GOOD observations (and I am sorry I have to be quick since very busy in the work).

1. The receipts vs approvals for 485 EB is in favor of backlog clearance. So yes a great deal of backlog is cleared. How much is built in EB1 and EB2 ROW can be deduced from the first document that somebody posted an hour earlier.
2. Luckily enough EB5 is not going to lose any of last years sofad. So we will get all of that it looks like.

So bottomline .... the indications are they are serious about clearing backlog as close to Aug 2007 as possible AND take in fresh applications at the same time.

The guideline on taking in fresh applications... is in VO's words - "as much as they could clear next year". So it rules out making teh category current. But keepsthe dooropen for 6-12 months movement past Aug 2007.

Q,
In addition EB485 receipts dropped almost 15% from Q1 to Q2 (19.6k to 16.8k) and pending EB1&EB2ROW-M-P(485) increased by 22%(17.4k to 21.1k) at the same time.

qblogfan

07-18-2011, 10:53 PM

Sure, I am glad that I can help.

Nowadays this website is the first site I visit every morning after I turn on my computer.

qblogfan, Thanks for clearing that up. BTW, I'm really glad you are on this forum :)

qesehmk

07-18-2011, 11:12 PM

qbf, I too share the same sentiment. And not just you, I truly welcome all chinese friends. After all, we are more similar than different.

When in college, I developed a wonderful friendship some of my Japanese Chinese and Korean friends. Me and my wife had our first child while I was in college and one of my chinese friends and his wife helped us a lot. In fact they gave us tons of baby clothes and it was funny to see my son wearing chinese style baby clothes :) When I considered sending my wife back to India for deliverying the baby, my friends wife came and scolded me until I was blue! That's when I realized that the chinese are very similar to Indians. Those were just 2 years of my life and it has been 10 years now ... but I still call him. In fact I just called him a month back and he was unfortunately quite frustrated because he couldn't cope up with the environment there. BTW he is interested in coming back and in pursuing a PHD. I do not know what advice to give him since he is probably 42 now. But anyway ... just wanted to say that i am glad you guys found it worthwhile to visit here and share information. Appreciate the spirit.

Sure, I am glad that I can help.

Nowadays this website is the first site I visit every morning after I turn on my computer.

Q,
In addition EB485 receipts dropped almost 15% from Q1 to Q2 (19.6k to 16.8k) and pending EB1&EB2ROW-M-P(485) increased by 22%(17.4k to 21.1k) at the same time.
veni, yes ... absolutely. That's where the majority of spillover is coming from.

TeddyKoochu

07-18-2011, 11:31 PM

neospeed,

This how I think the 19,000 is derived.

Theoretically, the number of visas issued by the end of July is (9 * 9) + (19/3)% * 140,000 = 122,267 leaving 17,733 remaining for August / September.

Number reported by mitbbs.com = 121,000

Difference = 1,267

Number remaining for 140,000 = 17,733 + 1,267 = 19,000 for August / September

Spec Iam in complete agreement with you.

TeddyKoochu

07-18-2011, 11:32 PM

Friends thanks for all your postings. Here are my thoughts.

- The document shows an interesting impact of the Kazarian memo I140 receipts are higher than the approvals there is no talk about denials as such but the numbers seem to suggest a 20% denial rate. I485 backlog is coming down and approvals exceed receipts.

- The document validated the part # 1 of the mittbs news about approvals in the first 7 months the figures bear a very close correlation.

- With regards the second part of the mittbs news Iam definitely more inclined to believe that the 19K is for both Aug and Sep, here is why a) If its for September only the best of the most optimistic scenario can justify that; SOFAD may well exceed 40 K in that scenario b) In that case the Aug bulletin would have been far more positive than conservative. c) logically as well in the last 2 months there should be 17-19K left in terms of visa numbers (Refer to Spec's Analysis) and because of PWMB filings happening the agencies may have needed some buffer. My personal take is that there will be 3-4K SOFAD in the September bulletin. There is some chance that pipeline building might happen in September but this is something totally hypothetical and at the discretion of the agencies.

qesehmk

07-19-2011, 01:27 AM

There is a lot of confusion about September leftover visas (news courtesy MITBBS). So I have once again tried to simplify the explanation in the HEADER.

If you still don't get it or have doubts .. my advice is leave it ... its not worth it. The bottomline is the dates will certainly move in September. Min 6 weeks (SFM). Max could beanything upto 18 months (BTM).

bababless

07-19-2011, 08:48 AM

I am sorry if its dumb question but I missed the terminology..what does it mean by BTM.

There is a lot of confusion about September leftover visas (news courtesy MITBBS). So I have once again tried to simplify the explanation in the HEADER.

If you still don't get it or have doubts .. my advice is leave it ... its not worth it. The bottomline is the dates will certainly move in September. Min 6 weeks (SFM). Max could beanything upto 18 months (BTM).

gchopeful123

07-19-2011, 08:57 AM

Refer to the 1st page for terminology.

I am sorry if its dumb question but I missed the terminology..what does it mean by BTM.

qblogfan

07-19-2011, 09:19 AM

Q, I am very glad to know your story.

My best friend in graduate school was from Southern India. We went to class together and studied together for 2 years. When I had trouble finding a job after graduation, this Indian friend encouraged me and helped me. Finally I settled my job offer with his help and left the city where we studied together, but I still have a good memory of the time spent with this friend. I like the Indian culture because Indian folks are conservative and family oriented.

qbf, I too share the same sentiment. And not just you, I truly welcome all chinese friends. After all, we are more similar than different.

When in college, I developed a wonderful friendship some of my Japanese Chinese and Korean friends. Me and my wife had our first child while I was in college and one of my chinese friends and his wife helped us a lot. In fact they gave us tons of baby clothes and it was funny to see my son wearing chinese style baby clothes :) When I considered sending my wife back to India for deliverying the baby, my friends wife came and scolded me until I was blue! That's when I realized that the chinese are very similar to Indians. Those were just 2 years of my life and it has been 10 years now ... but I still call him. In fact I just called him a month back and he was unfortunately quite frustrated because he couldn't cope up with the environment there. BTW he is interested in coming back and in pursuing a PHD. I do not know what advice to give him since he is probably 42 now. But anyway ... just wanted to say that i am glad you guys found it worthwhile to visit here and share information. Appreciate the spirit.

veni, yes ... absolutely. That's where the majority of spillover is coming from.