EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[sidd21]

Q and all the Gurus

Good Afternoon, We became current today(EB2I :09-March-2007). My wife is the primary applicant . We had few questions, can you please kindly respond

1) My application ( eb3 -2003 ,I was primary ) was denied due to ability to pay and is in appeals.
will this cause any problems for me or my wife when we apply her i-485, since we are using the A# from that application.

2) Coming back to my wife's application , since we have become current, we go ahead and submitt our application in Aug 1 2011.. how long will it take for the Fingerprinting and name check to be completed?.Can we expect to see a GC by year end?

We would really appreciate your responses as we can have some idea as to what to expect... it has been a long wait for us..... Thank you in advance




No I was not sarcastic. Strict FIFO will not happen for multiple reasons. But if your date is current then you should get it within a month max. Otherwise its a problem.



Spec answered this. The only thing I would correct is that China will actually see faster date movements simply because their demand is thinner than India. And then again May 2012 onwards India and China will catch together.

100% chance that people until Q1 2008 will be able to file 485 by Sep 2012.

[kolugc]

Q, S, T, V..

If the dates won't move to June 2008 how can they issue the NVC receipts for those dates? Should I consider that to be false information (that the NVC receipts have been sent to June 2008 dates) or there is no rule that the dates for which NVC receipts have been send need to be current soon. I could not find an answer for this so far and so this questions to you gurus...

[mvinayam]

We were really hoping for some light at the end of the tunnel this Fiscal Yr. But now based on the discussions it looks like our PD jun 20th 2007 wont be current till next yr spill over season.

Is it possible that for EB2 I the dates will remain stagnant starting for Sept till May 2012 like last yr????

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. Keeping fingers crossed.

On another note I just want to thank everybody for their positive attitude on this site. Some people may have noticed that our thread just passed half million views this morning. It means a lot to me given that we started from scratch. I was not sure if we would be able to serve as many people as we are serving today. But I was unhappy enough about IV that I took the step of going aware from it anyway. Today I feel happy that we had 385 users hitting the site at teh same time. Just yesterday there were 26000 views. I am sure it was more than what IV received today and yesterday. I do wish them well. However, I can't and don't want to hide the pride and joy of this.

More than numbers, whats important is that people do it by and large in a cooperative and respectful manner. Some people may be thinking that its my personal quest or business enterprise or whatever. And I wouldn't deny that. I don't know where this will go. But I am confident of one thing - that I derive happiness out of helping and sharing and so do a lot of other people on this site. And while we have done that ... we have also donated more (literally) than we have earned through advertisement. So all in all its all goodness. I really appreciate eveyrbody;s support and contribution. Even if you have made a single post ... you have contributed positively to this forum. So thank you just for that.



Q,

Now the hiatus has finally died down, I can finally congratulate you on becoming Current from 01 August.

Wishing you a short wait until they pick up your case and approve it!

[03May07]

Q

congrats

I think the chances of dates going beyond 2007 July is almost none, obviously buliding pipeline is something they may not consider until the reality hits. Bad news for PWMB, may be this fy will settle at May1,2007 and till May2012 the dates may reach Aug2007 and the only choice will be making EBIC Current or atleast pushing it to 2010/2011 to approve all the CP cases and send the spillover to EB3

bieber,

Be nice...don't say May 1, 2007. I started to dread to hear that.


As this year, whilst Countries are using their initial 7% allocation, we might expect the EB2-C Cut Off Date to advance more rapidly than EB2-I at the beginning of FY2012 because they have the same number of visas available as EB2-I but less cases per month.

Spec(or other gurus),
If, in the Sept Bulletin, the cutoff date remains 15 Apr 07 or moves to 01 May 07 (don' say that..), what would happen to someone like me in FY2012? There will be only a few hundred cases prior to my date...so can I be hopeful in First quarter and Second Quarter (assuming dates dont retrogress) or have to wait until May 2012?:confused:

[Spectator]

Q, S, T, V..

If the dates won't move to June 2008 how can they issue the NVC receipts for those dates? Should I consider that to be false information (that the NVC receipts have been sent to June 2008 dates) or there is no rule that the dates for which NVC receipts have been send need to be current soon. I could not find an answer for this so far and so this questions to you gurus...kolugc,

I think there were enough reports to say the fee receipts probably were issued.

To my knowledge, fee receipts can be issued as much as a year in advance of the PD becoming Current, although 6-9 months seems more common. They may well still become Current within that timescale.

Alternatively, DOS may have genuinely thought, at the time the fee receipts were issued, that there was a reasonable prospect of those dates becoming Current and that the situation has changed. I don't remember many recent reports of fee requests being issued.

I have no hard facts for either explanation.

[veni001]

Q, S, T, V..

If the dates won't move to June 2008 how can they issue the NVC receipts for those dates? Should I consider that to be false information (that the NVC receipts have been sent to June 2008 dates) or there is no rule that the dates for which NVC receipts have been send need to be current soon. I could not find an answer for this so far and so this questions to you gurus...


kolugc,

I think there were enough reports to say the fee receipts probably were issued.

To my knowledge, fee receipts can be issued as much as a year in advance of the PD becoming Current, although 6-9 months seems more common. They may well still become Current within that timescale.

Alternatively, DOS may have genuinely thought, at the time the fee receipts were issued, that there was a reasonable prospect of those dates becoming Current and that the situation has changed. I don't remember many recent reports of fee requests being issued.

I have no hard facts for either explanation.

Spec,
Agree, Once paid, Fee is valid until their CP interview. So no worries to those already paid!

[veni001]

bieber,

Be nice...don't say May 1, 2007. I started to dread to hear that.



Spec(or other gurus),
If, in the Sept Bulletin, the cutoff date remains 15 Apr 07 or moves to 01 May 07 (don' say that..), what would happen to someone like me in FY2012? There will be only a few hundred cases prior to my date...so can I be hopeful in First quarter and Second Quarter (assuming dates dont retrogress) or have to wait until May 2012?:confused:

03May07,
Just comparing 2010 movement with 2011, even though 2011 Spillover started in May itself....

July 2010
EB2I- 6.1k
EB2C- No Movement

August 2010
EB2I- 7.7k
EB2C- 1.4k

Sept 2010
EB2I- 3.1k
EB2C- 1.3k

October 2010
EB2I- No Movement
EB2C- 0.3k

July 2011
EB2I- 7.8k
EB2C- 0.7k

August 2011
EB2I- 1.6k
EB2C- 0.9k

Sept 2011
EB2I- ??
EB2C- ??


There will be some movement in Sept 2011(unless available VISAs = EB1/EB2ROW qualified applicants) and let's hope you will be current. If no movement in Sept 2011, then starting October 2011 EB2I PD movement will be based on depending on no.of documentarily qualified PWMB's plus no.of porting cases on monthly basis.

Bottom line is , no forward movement in September VB could mean small forward movement starting October 2011!

[Spectator]

Spec(or other gurus),
If, in the Sept Bulletin, the cutoff date remains 15 Apr 07 or moves to 01 May 07 (don' say that..), what would happen to someone like me in FY2012? There will be only a few hundred cases prior to my date...so can I be hopeful in First quarter and Second Quarter (assuming dates dont retrogress) or have to wait until May 2012?:confused:03May07,

That would be a very tricky situation.

You would be at the mercy of how many PWMB and porting cases with PDs earlier than yours were also adjudicated.

With so few visas per month available, there would be the danger that, like this year, the Cut Off Date stalls at that set in the last month of the previous FY. The numbers shouldn't be as big next year.

Hopefully, it is not a bridge you will have to cross.

[bieber]

bieber,

Be nice...don't say May 1, 2007. I started to dread to hear that.



point noted :), I didnot have any backup to say May1, so don't spend any time thinking about that

If indeed dates stop before May3, I don't think you need to wait till Q3/Q4 of fy2012, there will definitely be monthly movement starting Oct 2011. But as spec said PWMB will be big factor but your date may be way too early to get that kind of impact, so in other words your world won't stop till next spillover season

[qesehmk]

I do not see why your EB2 application should be affected. I think you should certainly have a GC by end of this year.


Q and all the Gurus
Good Afternoon, We became current today(EB2I :09-March-2007). My wife is the primary applicant . We had few questions, can you please kindly respond

1) My application ( eb3 -2003 ,I was primary ) was denied due to ability to pay and is in appeals.
will this cause any problems for me or my wife when we apply her i-485, since we are using the A# from that application.
2) Coming back to my wife's application , since we have become current, we go ahead and submitt our application in Aug 1 2011.. how long will it take for the Fingerprinting and name check to be completed?.Can we expect to see a GC by year end?


Q, S, T, V..
If the dates won't move to June 2008 how can they issue the NVC receipts for those dates? Should I consider that to be false information (that the NVC receipts have been sent to June 2008 dates) or there is no rule that the dates for which NVC receipts have been send need to be current soon. I could not find an answer for this so far and so this questions to you gurus...
There is no true and false. Most of the time people are guessing (including us on this forum). We will know better depending on where Sep bulleting comes at whether there will be any big temporary movement. (lets call it BTM)


We were really hoping for some light at the end of the tunnel this Fiscal Yr. But now based on the discussions it looks like our PD jun 20th 2007 wont be current till next yr spill over season.
Is it possible that for EB2 I the dates will remain stagnant starting for Sept till May 2012 like last yr????
Spec already answered this for 3M. And yes this is tricky. It could remain stagnant based on how many PWMB and portings are there. As per any BTM .. that is at the mercy of where Sep bulletin takes us. If it ends up Jun or earlier then the chances of BTM in Oct/Nov are nill given that there will be at least 3K demand after Jun 2007 which is more than sufficient for 2012 quota.
However most likely there will be a BTM by Q1 2012 otherwise there will be a risk that in 2012 visas numbers could go waste as far as EB2 is concerned.

[familyguy]

It would be very interesting to see how EB2C dates willl be moved once the EB2 china's inventory is 0 or close to 0. At present EB2C has about 4000 pending cases. Out of 4000 about 1000 cases will be cleared in August/2011, which brings total to 3000. Starting FY2012, china will get 2800 visas that will pretty much wipe the entire inventory.

Question to gurus: will 2800 visas be distributed in four quarters? If this is the case then we wont know immediately how EB2C dates will be moved...

[Dec13th2007]

Friends.

Visa bulletin is out. It is a kind a disappointing to me. Unfortunately EB2 just got advanced by one month to 15-Apr 2007

[03May07]

03May07,

That would be a very tricky situation.

You would be at the mercy of how many PWMB and porting cases with PDs earlier than yours were also adjudicated.

With so few visas per month available, there would be the danger that, like this year, the Cut Off Date stalls at that set in the last month of the previous FY. The numbers shouldn't be as big next year.

Hopefully, it is not a bridge you will have to cross.

I dont want to get on that bridge :) . (missing it by a 1/2 day in 2007 and missing it by 2 weeks now..I'm thinking of ..."Jab Kismat hai G..NDU kya kareyga PAANDU"...)

Q, can we get Spec a big 'S' like you and Veni have a Big 'Q' and Big 'V' beside your username.(before Sangiano joins this forum and stakes a claim for Big 'S' ;) )

[veni001]

I dont want to get on that bridge :) . (missing it by a 1/2 day in 2007 and missing it by 2 weeks now..I'm thinking of ..."Jab Kismat hai G..NDU kya kareyga PAANDU"...)

Q, can we get Spec a big 'S' like you and Veni have a Big 'Q' and Big 'V' beside your username.(before Sangiano joins this forum and stakes a claim for Big 'S' ;) )

Come on 03MAY07,
You missed the big "S"here our "Spectator"

[qesehmk]

Q, can we get Spec a big 'S' like you and Veni have a Big 'Q' and Big 'V' beside your username.(before Sangiano joins this forum and stakes a claim for Big 'S' ;) )

I simply wanted to have a profile picture but was too lazy to spend much time in doing that. So just typed Q in ppt and gave it a font 42 and saved as a jpeg and uploaded. Spec is welcome to claim S before sangiano!! I am sure sangiano is already on this forum. Just not sure who he is.

[Spectator]

I dont want to get on that bridge :) . (missing it by a 1/2 day in 2007 and missing it by 2 weeks now..I'm thinking of ..."Jab Kismat hai G..NDU kya kareyga PAANDU"...)

Q, can we get Spec a big 'S' like you and Veni have a Big 'Q' and Big 'V' beside your username.(before Sangiano joins this forum and stakes a claim for Big 'S' ;) )03May07,

Good idea!

I'm jealous :p and completely useless as far as avatars go.

So, Q and V,

Where did you get your letters? Are they built into the forum somewhere already?

The "Big T" needs one as well.

PM or email me.

[soggadu]

03May07,

Good idea!

I'm jealous :p and completely useless as far as avatars go.

So, Q and V,

Where did you get your letters? Are they built into the forum somewhere already?

The "Big T" needs one as well.

PM or email me.

I am sacrificing "S" for you spec...

[gchopeful123]

Experts,
For the last month of this FY2011, apart from EB1 spillover is there any possibility of more spillover of other categories into EB2I? or do you guys think they have been already counted and allocated to EB2 so far?

[veni001]

I simply wanted to have a profile picture but was too lazy to spend much time in doing that. So just typed Q in ppt and gave it a font 42 and saved as a jpeg and uploaded. Spec is welcome to claim S before sangiano!! I am sure sangiano is already on this forum. Just not sure who he is.

...and I just followed Q with my V...:)


03May07,

Good idea!

I'm jealous :p and completely useless as far as avatars go.

So, Q and V,

Where did you get your letters? Are they built into the forum somewhere already?

The "Big T" needs one as well.

PM or email me.

Spec,
I just used MS Paint...

[TeddyKoochu]

03May07,

Good idea!

I'm jealous :p and completely useless as far as avatars go.

So, Q and V,

Where did you get your letters? Are they built into the forum somewhere already?

The "Big T" needs one as well.

PM or email me.

Spec & Other friends Iam small "t" not big "T". Lets try and find the avatar files / icons.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

[gc_usa]

Could this happened ? DOS got less demand for Rest of categories from USCIS and DOS started spill over early to IC. Later USCIS changed their mind and came with lots of demand for ROW and EB1. do DOS has to limit spill over ?

[Spectator]

Could this happened ? DOS got less demand for Rest of categories from USCIS and DOS started spill over early to IC. Later USCIS changed their mind and came with lots of demand for ROW and EB1. do DOS has to limit spill over ?gc_usa,

As has been discussed many times, the elephant in the corner was always the ever increasing backlog of EB1 and EB2-ROW applications.

Maybe it has woken up.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

Just now Leo and Sogaddu brought it to my attn that custom avatars are not allowed. I have made the change (or so do i think) so that now you can use your own avatars.

Please let me know if you face issues.

Thanks
Q

[veni001]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

Teddy,
What ever be our porting estimate(2k,4k,6k,8k...etc) for next FY, all of it is not going to be there on First day/First month/Q1 of FY2012. So we need to prorate it at least until next spillover season starts(May/June 2012). Agree, we should wait until September'11 bulletin before crunching numbers for FY2012.

[angryclubs]

Testing avatar

[belmontboy]

Friends,

Just now Leo and Sogaddu brought it to my attn that custom avatars are not allowed. I have made the change (or so do i think) so that now you can use your own avatars.

Please let me know if you face issues.

Thanks
Q

I am Mr N now.
Thanks for fixing

[neospeed]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

Thanks for the excellent insight Teddy.

Looking at the June inventory it appears they allocated only 2.6k for this VB.

DOS and CIS might have reserved some extra numbers for the worst case scenario with respect to eb1 and eb2 (row) allocation.

My take on this is depending on the eb1 and eb2 row usage dos might release more numbers in Sept VB.

[suninphx]

Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

6K porting? hmm...

[sha_kus]

Shouldn't the 6k porting stretch for all of the year...



Friends its a little early but lets analyze the current situation. Realistically I think we may get 30K SOFAD instead of 33K. Iam expecting minor movement only in September. Now with this said ~ 5K preadjudicated cases will be left. In addition to that there will be 6K porting and 4K PWMB. So even upto the point of 01-AUG-2007 there is 15K demand. Now since there are 5K preadjudicated cases there maybe no urgency to move the dates early on in the year. The next intake may happen anytime after end of Q1 to as late as May 2012. One point to not however is that the guiding principle of any intake would be this year’s SOFAD, so if it is 30K the next intake will not be in the excess of 35K. Now we know that 15K is ready there till 01-AUG-2007, so realistically till the end of 2007 they will get 15K with Q1 2008 serving as a buffer. I believe if the next intake happens in a timely manner there is a good chance that everyone in 2007 will have their GC in hand by Sep 2012, Q1 2008 folks are a little borderline right now because we may see 30K SOFAD instead of 33K so this effectively translates to a deficit of 6K. However let’s wait and watch and see where exactly the September bulletin lands us. I don't think that fresh intake will happen in September 2011. If the timely intake happens next years range will be 01-JAN-2008 to 31-MAR-2008.

[sjkumar]

Congrats Q and others becoming current.
Thanks a lot T,V,S & others for your valuable analysis effort and time.
I really learned so much about this long ... frustrating GC process in this forum.
Keep up your good work.

[krishnav]

Testing avatar

Awesome avatar...that cracks me up!!

[pch053]

Irrespective of what the porting number is (anywhere between 3K - 6K), I think Teddy's analysis provides very good insight on the current scenario. I think the point he is trying to make is there will be more than enough pre-adjudicated cases (some of them might be PWMB cases from this year) for USCIS to approve in the 1st (and maybe 2nd) quarter of 2012 without moving the dates at all. So, the expected big push in PDs might happen after that. I think the different estimates of EB3->EB2 porting will alter the movement of PDs by hardly 1 to 1 and 1/2 months.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
What ever be our porting estimate(2k,4k,6k,8k...etc) for next FY, all of it is not going to be there on First day/First month/Q1 of FY2012. So we need to prorate it at least until next spillover season starts(May/June 2012). Agree, we should wait until September'11 bulletin before crunching numbers for FY2012.

Agree with you Veni on the porting, unfortunately even if 5K of the preadjudicated demand stays the dates wont move at all.

[Monica12]

Testing avatar

That is just too funny!

[ssvp22]

Going by the VB today, i doubt there will be BTM anytime soon. There were numbers and reasons to do a BTM this month, but DoS thought otherwise. Clearly, DoS wants to leave immigrants to dry out in the ugly economy. Whoever falls, they get direct ticket to India. Whoever survives, gets the GC. There is no way out except working 12-14 hours a day and maintaining your status till next summer.

And we should really stop comparing to 2007 since at that time economy was doing great. These are different times and DoS has to serve the citizens first. I dont think DoS by any means wants to help out immigrants, especially if you look at EB3 India folks.

[kd2008]

gc_usa,

As has been discussed many times, the elephant in the corner was always the ever increasing backlog of EB1 and EB2-ROW applications.

Maybe it has woken up.

Given the continuing surge in EB2-ROW PERM approvals and I-140 filings since July 09 (which resulted in ballooning the demand since Oct 10, the new fiscal year, and finally now getting around to consume visa after USCIS processing delays), this is not a surprise. I had previously expressed deep reservations on the rosy scenarios. Still I am happy considering how far things have come. I guess the June visa bulletin movement caught everybody off-guard and raised hopes a bit too much.

Following trackitt, I see unprecedented and gigantic surge in PERM filings in March and April 2011. But its mostly EB2-I. Some of it is sure porting demand. But as others have pointed out, that number is still miniscule.

PS: Oh boy! I am old now I guess. Senior member, eh? Better rein in that bitter tongue of mine lest I come across as curmudgeon.

[leo07]

In addition to Veni's point--Porting that has to(could) happen before March/April/May of 2007, IMHO, would have happened already(90-95%). Remaining porting that could fall into June-July-August 2007 would be minimal ( < 500 at best ).

So there is no great danger from porting as such for PDs below August 1, 2007. PWMB's, yes there is a danger of that; Luckily for us, DOS would get true picture of this number ONLY if they move the dates forward.

Danger/threat for the PD's from both of the above parameters, progressively increases as we move farther from August 1st 2007.


Agree with you Veni on the porting, unfortunately even if 5K of the preadjudicated demand stays the dates wont move at all.

[suninphx]

Irrespective of what the porting number is (anywhere between 3K - 6K), I think Teddy's analysis provides very good insight on the current scenario. I think the point he is trying to make is there will be more than enough pre-adjudicated cases (some of them might be PWMB cases from this year) for USCIS to approve in the 1st (and maybe 2nd) quarter of 2012 without moving the dates at all. So, the expected big push in PDs might happen after that. I think the different estimates of EB3->EB2 porting will alter the movement of PDs by hardly 1 to 1 and 1/2 months.

I think every one gets that. Was wondering if 6K is backed by some hard numbers. We really need to wait till Sep bulletin to see where we land - as Venni said. Plus PWMB , porting are guesstimates and there are more unknowns than before now.

[gcseeker]

Leo007

I am confused with the below statement of yours. If porting is expected to be in range of 6K total for the year why would the risk increase substantially post 2007 ? I can definetly agree that as the date progresses the scope would be more for further porting applications to fill the pipeline ...but would it really be substantial.

Also would like to get some advice from the forum. I am in a dilema with the present bulletin. My PD is Nov 2007 and with all reasonable estimates might not get an chance to file for 485 before Sep 2012 and if the pessimistic scenario with porting and other factors being considered ...it might drag on as far as 2013. I am almost toying with the idea of changing my job to a different title altogether ( Engineering to Program Management ) and attempting to refile labour and recapture the PD and get back in line ...the alternative for me is too painful...wait till early 2013 or late 2012 to even file 485 and then slog through the treacherous rules of AC-21 portability to prove position equivalence and then be forced to hold on tight to the position untill the gc finally gets approved.

What is the general opinion for post Aug 2007 cases.....please enlighten me on the most pessimistic scenario so that can make an decision on my career.I am pretty sure many others would have an similar question.

Thanks


In addition to Veni's point--Porting that has to(could) happen before March/April/May of 2007, IMHO, would have happened already(90-95%). Remaining porting that could fall into June-July-August 2007 would be minimal ( < 500 at best ).

So there is no great danger from porting as such for PDs below August 1, 2007. PWMB's, yes there is a danger of that; Luckily for us, DOS would get true picture of this number ONLY if they move the dates forward.

Danger/threat for the PD's from both of the above parameters, progressively increases as we move farther from August 1st 2007.

[RMS_V13]

Yeah, let me know...so that I better be prepared if the date moves to 01 May 2007(as guru's have started predicting) in Sept bulletin.

Are you sure? Your disp name is 03 May and assuming its your PD too, why would you be prepared for a May 1st move :)

[haripathhi]

I think you should have your GC in hand by Sep 2012. Maybe my comment is clouded by my own PD which is the same as yours but its a case of "close but yet so far...." scenario. I'd rather stay put than start the process again. Just my 2 cents...


Leo007

I am confused with the below statement of yours. If porting is expected to be in range of 6K total for the year why would the risk increase substantially post 2007 ? I can definetly agree that as the date progresses the scope would be more for further porting applications to fill the pipeline ...but would it really be substantial.

Also would like to get some advice from the forum. I am in a dilema with the present bulletin. My PD is Nov 2007 and with all reasonable estimates might not get an chance to file for 485 before Sep 2012 and if the pessimistic scenario with porting and other factors being considered ...it might drag on as far as 2013. I am almost toying with the idea of changing my job to a different title altogether ( Engineering to Program Management ) and attempting to refile labour and recapture the PD and get back in line ...the alternative for me is too painful...wait till early 2013 or late 2012 to even file 485 and then slog through the treacherous rules of AC-21 portability to prove position equivalence and then be forced to hold on tight to the position untill the gc finally gets approved.

What is the general opinion for post Aug 2007 cases.....please enlighten me on the most pessimistic scenario so that can make an decision on my career.I am pretty sure many others would have an similar question.

Thanks

[nishant2200]

I think you should have your GC in hand by Sep 2012. Maybe my comment is clouded by my own PD which is the same as yours but its a case of "close but yet so far...." scenario. I'd rather stay put than start the process again. Just my 2 cents...

I am also in similar problem. I have good chances of being a development manager but need to probably hold off on it because of similar problems mentioned by gcseeker.

man hope you say comes true, GC in hand by Sep 2012. I will not forget you if that comes true :)

[leo4ever]

Q,

I wanted to analyze and see how many PERM applications we have before me (11/01/2008). I am using the data from FLCDataCenter.
I need help from you with this if possible. I dont see the approval dates on the file and not priority dates. So can i use approval date-9 months to get the records i want.

Thanks for the help.
Leo


Friends .... check with a good lawyer. I have risen from a business analyst to manager to sr manager to director during GC process. So I would imagine its perfectly possible as long as its a promotion in the same line of work.

[nayekal]

I am also in similar problem. I have good chances of being a development manager but need to probably hold off on it because of similar problems mentioned by gcseeker.

man hope you say comes true, GC in hand by Sep 2012. I will not forget you if that comes true :)

Same here. With Oct 12 2007, this VB is depressing for me and if there is no hope for until next May / June 2012, I better leave my current job. I don't want to get stuck for next year and a half at the same place.
Gurus, please through some light on what options , we have at this time to change job and still be able to get back in line by 2nd qtr next year. Is it feasible thing to do?

[veni001]

Q,

I wanted to analyze and see how many PERM applications we have before me (11/01/2008). I am using the data from FLCDataCenter.
I need help from you with this if possible. I dont see the approval dates on the file and not priority dates. So can i use approval date-9 months to get the records i want.

Thanks for the help.
Leo

leo4ever,
Please check our PERM Monthly Breakdown (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), approvals post July 2007.
You may want to check PERM Matrix (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) also, all posted in FACTS AND DATA section.

[vipulgupta470]

on a positive note - lets not expect anything from Sep 2011 bulletin like we didnt expect anything from June 2011 bulletin (read between the lines :))

[veni001]

Given the continuing surge in EB2-ROW PERM approvals and I-140 filings since July 09 (which resulted in ballooning the demand since Oct 10, the new fiscal year, and finally now getting around to consume visa after USCIS processing delays), this is not a surprise. I had previously expressed deep reservations on the rosy scenarios. Still I am happy considering how far things have come. I guess the June visa bulletin movement caught everybody off-guard and raised hopes a bit too much.

Following trackitt, I see unprecedented and gigantic surge in PERM filings in March and April 2011. But its mostly EB2-I. Some of it is sure porting demand. But as others have pointed out, that number is still miniscule.

PS: Oh boy! I am old now I guess. Senior member, eh? Better rein in that bitter tongue of mine lest I come across as curmudgeon.

kd2008,
Agree, we all predicted July'11 VB will move EB2IC to Jan'07 instead moved to March'07, which in-turn raised hopes until August bulletin brought the reality back.
Bottom line is FY predictions are in-line with our calculations.

[natvyas]

Here is my take on the situation-

1) With SOFAD numbers still available USCIS chose to move the dates only by about a month---- this to me indicates that they wanted to slow down things a little bit so that they could process the applications already received and use as many visas as possible to avoid wastage. In April CO announced 12K additional visas from EB1 however USCIS moved the dates only by 5 weeks in the next bulletin.

2) The CO does have visas available in his back pocket ---- this will allow them to move dates ahead in Sep bulletin since on paper he can show the supply is more than the demand till this point (demand = documentarily qualified).

3) the NVC receipts are not a random event but a strategy setting move which will materialize/unfold in next month.

Please feel free to critique my understanding...

Regards
Nat

[indiasunil]

So what is your expectation based on above PERM data matrix for next bulletin. For me based on analysis it will go till Aug 2007 or March 2008 in Sep/Oct Bulletin.

[natvyas]

I guess it would be somewhere in 2008 (Jan, Mar or maybe Jun 08)

[qesehmk]

Same here. With Oct 12 2007, this VB is depressing for me and if there is no hope for until next May / June 2012, I better leave my current job. I don't want to get stuck for next year and a half at the same place.
Gurus, please through some light on what options , we have at this time to change job and still be able to get back in line by 2nd qtr next year. Is it feasible thing to do?
It depends on how much frustrated you are. Obviously there is some time lost and who knows how fast the next company might act and how fast your labor may get trhoguh etc etc. Waiting at least through mid sep would be prudent so that you know whether oct 2007 will be reached at all at least through Oct 2011.


Here is my take on the situation-

1) With SOFAD numbers still available USCIS chose to move the dates only by about a month---- this to me indicates that they wanted to slow down things a little bit so that they could process the applications already received and use as many visas as possible to avoid wastage. In April CO announced 12K additional visas from EB1 however USCIS moved the dates only by 5 weeks in the next bulletin.

2) The CO does have visas available in his back pocket ---- this will allow them to move dates ahead in Sep bulletin since on paper he can show the supply is more than the demand till this point (demand = documentarily qualified).

3) the NVC receipts are not a random event but a strategy setting move which will materialize/unfold in next month.

Please feel free to critique my understanding...

Regards
Nat
I think this is logical and possible. It would be nice if some sort of evidence exists to back it up as a valid explanation.

[ssvp22]

this to me indicates that they wanted to slow down things a little bit so that they could process the applications already received and use as many visas as possible to avoid wastage.
Best way to avoid wastage is to take in more applications and approve pre adjudicated cases. Besides that waiting for the last month to take 5-8k applications has more chances of wastage.


the NVC receipts are not a random event but a strategy setting move which will materialize/unfold in next month.
Right now they look nothing more than a mistake. You can compare to mistake done by Mumbai consulate last month where they said EB2I was current. Or VB vanishing earlier today. Or maybe some guy at INS didnt know the rules and he sent the fee notice. Shit happens. Also, the number of reported NVC fee notices(3-4 at max) is too low to confirm this is really happening for everyone who applied for CP.

[Zoroark]

leo4ever,
Please check our PERM Monthly Breakdown (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), approvals post July 2007.
You may want to check PERM Matrix (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) also, all posted in FACTS AND DATA section.

I am trying to find out the ratio between Perm and I-485 based on 2006 data to determine future demand. Below data includes both EB2 and EB3

PD - 2006 Perm Data
FY 2006 - 14046 , FY 2007 - 11461 , FY08-11 - 175
TOTAL ~ 25700

PD - 2006 I-485 Inventory data - 18551 + 10587 = 29138

So its 1.13 times Perm data.

If we take 2008 the total Perm is 23352.
So demand is ~ 26387

If we split 70/30 between EB2 and EB3.

2008 EB2 - 18471
2008 EB3 - 7915

:o

[TeddyKoochu]

6K porting? hmm...


I think every one gets that. Was wondering if 6K is backed by some hard numbers. We really need to wait till Sep bulletin to see where we land - as Venni said. Plus PWMB , porting are guesstimates and there are more unknowns than before now.

This is actually a guesstimate value for next year. In 2010 porting was calculated at 3K, this year it was guesstimated at 6K, I feel it will stay at that level because the disparity between EB2 and EB3 is extreme and people have started to even upgrade their qualifications. This year porting could not be calculated because of the fact that Eb3 inventory was incremented by the local office cases. Porting cannot grow exponentially but it will be proportionate to the disparity between EB2 and Eb3 and than plateau out. So 6K is more of a guesstimate in that light.


In addition to Veni's point--Porting that has to(could) happen before March/April/May of 2007, IMHO, would have happened already(90-95%). Remaining porting that could fall into June-July-August 2007 would be minimal ( < 500 at best ).

So there is no great danger from porting as such for PDs below August 1, 2007. PWMB's, yes there is a danger of that; Luckily for us, DOS would get true picture of this number ONLY if they move the dates forward.

Danger/threat for the PD's from both of the above parameters, progressively increases as we move farther from August 1st 2007.

The scope of that post was a forecast to guesstimate the demand for the upcoming year. Completely agree with your points.

[TeddyKoochu]

For EB2-I the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing, the movement is ~3K in terms of numbers. I believe that a maximum of 4-5K worth of SOFAD is what maybe left (It may well be less) and the farthest that we could reach with that maybe most likely somewhere in early May 2007. The final range for 2011 will be between 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007. Lets wait and watch.

Friends some guidance and corrections from Veni, all along porting was assumed to be 6K however I had attributed only 3K via India’s cap in the ballpark calculation for the SOFAD consumed, additionally 1-1.5K PWMB as well. So indeed ~30K SOFAD is already allocated an only 3K may be really left for Sep. Thanks a lot Veni for the correction. As a result I believe that 2011 may end between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.

[imdeng]

The silver lining in the small movement in EB2I PD is that it increases the chances of pipeline building in Sept VB. If they had taken the PD far out in Aug and the flood of applications have accounted for all visa numbers then it would not have been possible for DoS to increase PD in the next bulletin. By being conservative for Aug, they can make sure that at the time of Sept bulletin, they still have visa numbers left and hence have a viable legal route to moving the PD forward.

[03May07]

Friends some guidance and corrections from Veni, all along porting was assumed to be 6K however I had attributed only 3K via India’s cap in the ballpark calculation for the SOFAD consumed, additionally 1-1.5K PWMB as well. So indeed ~30K SOFAD is already allocated an only 3K may be really left for Sep. Thanks a lot Veni for the correction. As a result I believe that 2011 may end between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.

ie 08-May-2007...WooHOOO......

Man....making decisions is becoming tougher these days...Should I be an Optimist or a Pessimist?:confused:

Ps: Sorry guys, I'm being selfish as I can't think of anyone else's PD except mine.

[leo4ever]

Hi Veni,

Thanks a lot buddy. This info is a lot helpful.


kd2008,
Agree, we all predicted July'11 VB will move EB2IC to Jan'07 instead moved to March'07, which in-turn raised hopes until August bulletin brought the reality back.
Bottom line is FY predictions are in-line with our calculations.

[kkurasa]

I tend to agree and also think they could move the dates farther ahead in the next VB to build a pipeline before retrogressing it a little. That way, they would know the demand and can then decide what to do as the next spill over season starts.




The silver lining in the small movement in EB2I PD is that it increases the chances of pipeline building in Sept VB. If they had taken the PD far out in Aug and the flood of applications have accounted for all visa numbers then it would not have been possible for DoS to increase PD in the next bulletin. By being conservative for Aug, they can make sure that at the time of Sept bulletin, they still have visa numbers left and hence have a viable legal route to moving the PD forward.

[leo4ever]

@03May07,

Dont be Optimist or Pessimist, be a Sthithapragyudu...just kidding.
I know making decisions these days are a lot tougher. I wanted to buy a house and wanted to settle at once place but i can not. H1 they extend it for 1 yr, Drivers license is based on I94 now..Every one is little selfish and there should not be any issue.


ie 08-May-2007...WooHOOO......

Man....making decisions is becoming tougher these days...Should I be an Optimist or a Pessimist?:confused:

Ps: Sorry guys, I'm being selfish as I can't think of anyone else's PD except mine.

[Monica12]

ie 08-May-2007...WooHOOO......

Man....making decisions is becoming tougher these days...Should I be an Optimist or a Pessimist?:confused:

Ps: Sorry guys, I'm being selfish as I can't think of anyone else's PD except mine.

I totally understand your frustation. I need to make some really tough decisions and right now feel as if my life is completely on hold. I'm living one VB to another.....
That is why I love this site, it can help people like me make informed decisions about their lives...
I'm trying to be an optimist.. :)

[qesehmk]

Team, the poll we posted on name change etc has so far consistently yield about 1/3rd people advocating some change (either domain name or blog name) while 2/3rd saying don't change anything.

I do not think the numbers will move much %wise even if we keep teh poll alive for another few weeks. So I am going to take this poll down today. If anybody has objections/suggestions .. let me know.

Based on the poll results, we will keep everything as is.

[kpt112107]

I am P now...

[suninphx]

Friends some guidance and corrections from Veni, all along porting was assumed to be 6K however I had attributed only 3K via India’s cap in the ballpark calculation for the SOFAD consumed, additionally 1-1.5K PWMB as well. So indeed ~30K SOFAD is already allocated an only 3K may be really left for Sep. Thanks a lot Veni for the correction. As a result I believe that 2011 may end between 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007.

So total of about 33K SOFAD this yr.. Is that lower side of the estimated numbers? From memory we were estimating 38 K to 40K of SOFAD on upper side?

[pdmay2008]

This is actually a guesstimate value for next year. In 2010 porting was calculated at 3K, this year it was guesstimated at 6K, I feel it will stay at that level because the disparity between EB2 and EB3 is extreme and people have started to even upgrade their qualifications. This year porting could not be calculated because of the fact that Eb3 inventory was incremented by the local office cases. Porting cannot grow exponentially but it will be proportionate to the disparity between EB2 and Eb3 and than plateau out. So 6K is more of a guesstimate in that light.



The scope of that post was a forecast to guesstimate the demand for the upcoming year. Completely agree with your points.

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

[SDAKSHIN]

Guys I got a Question. I will be applying for 485 this august since my PD is 10APR2007. Hypothetically if they retrogress the dates in SEP (sincerely hope they dont) what would be the impact. Elsewhere I read there should be visa # available to approve 485. Am I safe if I apply in august or should I keep be worried about these VB till I get approval.

[qesehmk]

My 2 cents on portings:

Whatever the porting this year, one needs to ask, why would that change next year? Is economy getting better?

No matter what individual frustration level is - one still needs a sponsor. Finding a sponsor to file GC is tough in itself. Finding one to file second when first is already filed is huge. Job change could do this miracle ...but then how many have that luxury?


I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.


Guys I got a Question. I will be applying for 485 this august since my PD is 10APR2007. Hypothetically if they retrogress the dates in SEP (sincerely hope they dont) what would be the impact. Elsewhere I read there should be visa # available to approve 485. Am I safe if I apply in august or should I keep be worried about these VB till I get approval.
The dates movement so far are completely sustainable i.e. will NOT retrogress. You should be clear by end of this year for sure.

[bieber]

not even 1/3rd of H1b quota is used in this year, filing new h1s, getting extensions are really not smoother now, this should be a leading indicator for porting and EB1C demand

[ssvp22]

No matter what individual frustration level is - one still needs a sponsor. Finding a sponsor to file GC is tough in itself. Finding one to file second when first is already filed is huge. Job change could do this miracle ...but then how many have that luxury?
Besides that, there is nothing stopping pre August 2007 EB3s from porting all these years. I dont see any sudden increase in porting as a result.

[suninphx]

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

I have slightly different view point. Majority of us believe that Eb2/EB3 ratio post 2007 is ~70/30. If you add 6K of porting..are we saying ~90% of applicants will be in EB2? That sounds unrealistic to me.

[velugc]

I agree, i know many of my EB3 friends with PD after July 2007 already switched / seriously planning to switch jobs to come into EB2.


I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

[Spectator]

I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.I haven't entirely decided on what the level of Porting might be next year.

I do agree that the number porting (or at least attempting to port) per "PD month" post July 2007 will probably be higher because many with earlier PDs in EB3 have the benefit of EAD/AP. As Teddy has subsequently pointed out, post July 2007 many people just did not file in EB3 at all, so this is a counteracting factor.

However, we didn't really see any effect from porting until FY2010 (as it became clear how fast EB2-I was progressing as a result of the revised spillover interpretation).

Therefore the porting numbers encompassed people with PDs ranging from say, 2003 to at least May 2006 in FY 2010 and up to April 2007 in FY2011.

A lot of those who can port with earlier PDs will have already done so, so numbers from older PDs might be expected to decline.

How those lower numbers, combined with perhaps higher numbers post backlog turn into a final number, I haven't yet decided.

At the moment, 6k for porting alone in FY2012 feels slightly on the high side.

I need to think about it a bit more.

[neospeed]

Last year sept 2010 vb got around 5k eb2 I/C movement. I hope we will have the same movement in the coming vb. They might dump all the unused number in the coming vb in order not to waste any single one this time (heard last year they wasted around 600, which translates to one week movement (: )

[TeddyKoochu]

I have slightly different view point. Majority of us believe that Eb2/EB3 ratio post 2007 is ~70/30. If you add 6K of porting..are we saying ~90% of applicants will be in EB2? That sounds unrealistic to me.

Suninphx, actually post July 2007 most people are applying in EB2 anyway. Most of the 6K will come from years 2003, 2004 and 2005 as people realize that they will have an eternal wait. Personally I know many people who are waking upto this reality all of them have 10+ years of experience many of them were just stuck with the current employer. Most of the folks are pushing the current employer or switching jobs for GC now. Only perm takes a while I140 can be done fairly quickly. Now in 2012 the disparity between EB2 and EB3 becomes more theoretically everyone who filed in 2005 has 5 years of additional experience from the initial EB3 filing. So porting most likely will be easily be sustained at the 6K level.

[Spectator]

Last year sept 2010 vb got around 5k eb2 I/C movement. I hope we will have the same movement in the coming vb. They might dump all the unused number in the coming vb in order not to waste any single one this time (heard last year they wasted around 600, which translates to one week movement (: )Theoretical Spillover for EB2 in FY was 20,524 and Spillover used was 20,434 , so only 90 visas were wasted in EB2.

In EB3, 657 visas were wasted.

EB4 received 351 more visas than the allocation.

[pdmay2008]

Suninphx, actually post July 2007 most people are applying in EB2 anyway. Most of the 6K will come from years 2003, 2004 and 2005 as people realize that they will have an eternal wait. Personally I know many people who are waking upto this reality all of them have 10+ years of experience many of them were just stuck with the current employer. Most of the folks are pushing the current employer or switching jobs for GC now. Only perm takes a while I140 can be done fairly quickly. Now in 2012 the disparity between EB2 and EB3 becomes more theoretically everyone who filed in 2005 has 5 years of additional experience from the initial EB3 filing. So porting most likely will be easily be sustained at the 6K level.

Here are the scenarios I can think of:

1. EB3 Priority Date Before July 2007 : Most of them were not eligible for EB2 due to Bachelors + 5 Year experience requirement. Now most of them who got 5 + Year experience are going to port even though they have EAD/AP. Just to get out of this mess as soon as possible.

2. EB3 Priority Date Before July 2008 : Some of them got 5 + years experience now and also with too much scrutiny in H1B extensions, they want to get ready for next spill over and atleast get EAD/AP (They do not want to become PWMB)

3. EB3 Priority Date After July 2008 : Most of them switching jobs as they still not exceeded their H1B 6 year limit. Trying to find employers who can sponsor them under EB2 so that they can port.

Keep adding if you think of any other scenarios.

[tiger_of_web]

Just having EAD/AP is not a reason to have less porting prior to 2007. With EAD, one can make a switch to same or similar job. Most people are moving up the value chain and find it useless to use the role created 7/8 years in past to switch today. Hence, there is a double benefit for those who want to upgrade. Better position and also port to EB2. I think this is the single most important driving factor for upgrading.

I have also heard that upgrade in the same company different position is hard to come by these days. CIS is asking for proper justifications and also questioning whether the old position will be filled. That leaves the option of changing employers and filing for a new position. In this economy, such a option is also not easy. I know many people in EB3 beyond 2007 who are wondering if upgrade is the way to go. From what i have seen, most consulting companies always file in Eb3 whatever your qualification and experience is.


I agree with Teddy on this. Until July-2007 most of the EB3s are having EADs and APs. So they are not bothered that much to upgrade, but after July 2007 no one has this previlage. We will see more EB3 to EB2 moves for the priority dates after July 2007.

[Spectator]

A quick and dirty calculation.

If in FY2012, 7.5% of EB3-I with PD of 2003 to July 2007 ported, that would be approx 3,750 cases. 7.5% is slightly less than the possible FY2011 figure, but higher than the FY2010 derived figure.

If we say that EB3 cases waiting to file between the backlog and mid 2008 is 9,000 cases and that 5% of those port, then that is an additional 450 cases.

In total, that is 4,200 cases, so for the moment I will set my maximum at 5,000.

To reach 6k would need a flat rate of around 10.2%. That is not impossible, but is beyond my current comfort level.

For context, my assumed figure for FY2011 is 4.5k rather than 6k.

Perhaps I am saying the same as Teddy, that the numbers will be relatively unchanged - we only differ on what that number is. :)

[ssvp22]

While we are at it, there are 86800 pending EB3 485s prior to Jan 1 2007. By year end, all the 86k cases will have 5+ years of experience on paper be elegible for filing EB2. Now, how many of them really switch, time will tell. Basic math says 10% switch can result in 9k porting. However, most likelihood of porting is for years 2003, 2004, 2005 since those people already have the required experience and motivation(priority date, frustration, move up, get out, have a life....) to port. Total for these 3 years is 34k cases. If 20% of these port, thats 7k cases.

[familyguy]

Even thought they have 5+ years of experience, not every one will have a 4 year degree, so they are NOT eligible for Eb2....


While we are at it, there are 86800 pending EB3 485s prior to Jan 1 2007. By year end, all the 86k cases will have 5+ years of experience on paper be elegible for filing EB2. Now, how many of them really switch, time will tell. Basic math says 10% switch can result in 9k porting. However, most likelihood of porting is for years 2003, 2004, 2005 since those people already have the required experience and motivation(priority date, frustration, move up, get out, have a life....) to port. Total for these 3 years is 34k cases. If 20% of these port, thats 7k cases.

[bieber]

How about chances of spillover to EB3 (due to non-pro active measure from DOS/CIS) causing demotivation for porting :)

[kd2008]

not even 1/3rd of H1b quota is used in this year, filing new h1s, getting extensions are really not smoother now, this should be a leading indicator for porting and EB1C demand

Excellent point, B. I wouldn't be concerned about H1B quota usage. It doesn't matter if the quota is consumed on day 1 or day 365 as long as it is consumed. I still feel that quota will be exhausted by Feb 2012. Getting extensions has been problematic in some cases for sure.

[qesehmk]

Here are two counter arguments to EB3 portings increase in 2012:

1. Even if one accumulates experience - the sponsors still have to go through teh hassle of sponsoring a second green card. (that's what a porting is).
2. The universe of EB3 is pretty much closed. The ones that were easy to convert and / or people in good positions to bargain a second GC already have done it so far. Now the ones remaining are the ones that are pretty much stuck. Forget everybody i know personally people from the most premier institutes in India having stuck in stupid jobs. Life is not fair. But that's what it is.

So unfortunately while the level frustration in EB3 will grow exponentially, in 2012 we will see portings at most equal to 2011. My belief is that in 2011 there were not mor ethan 3-4K portings.

[ssvp22]

Now the ones remaining are the ones that are pretty much stuck.
Or the lazy ones are left behind. I personally know few who will never port unless they loose the current job. They are happy with 9-5+paycheck

[Stemcell]

Or the lazy ones are left behind. I personally know few who will never port unless they loose the current job. They are happy with 9-5+paycheck

Lazy is probably a strong word to use.
Always its the Risk Vs Benefits before you consider anything. Also most folks have families, kids in school, owning homes, social circle. Needing to change all that is a huge deal and should not be interpreted as lazy IMHO.

[nishant2200]

I slept for 11 hours yesterday. And today morning, again following the aftermath :)

The discussion about portings, I think to be on conservative side, I would go with the 6k figure.

It is my belief that as the economy improves, there will be more people in EB1 and EB2 ROW, as well as EB5 will have more interest due to government will behind it as well as more bang for the buck being shown by economy. FB will also be dried out in terms of spillover, as people will not abandon their number and show up. And also as things improve, there maybe more willingness in organizations to take up people needing EB2 GC. So yes, this year and the next year are really important in terms of movement. This year, SOFAD was huge, but the months it had to travel were "fat", and hence time wise, the movement has not been even a year by now, but quantity wise, huge.

The economy is giving mixed signals, I am not an expert, but I don't see huge improvements for the next one year.

Apart from points already mentioned, most simple reason is, changing job is a hassle. Most people are quite senior by now who are in EB3 2002 to 2007, and many of them have working spouses because of EAD, they have houses, children going to school. It's not a split second decision for them. The EAD led to lot of life decisions being taken, which might also act as a hindrance in this life decision of job.

so on different topic, in last few months, I was wanting to start write a children's book. This is the first line of it, dedicated to my daughter.

"Stupefied by the constant bumbling of beings and life's very marshes, I many times thought of a very bothersome question. Why, why when the life is finite, and end unknown, such a quarrel to obtain the most neediest of things, and greed to grab the not so ones. I really could not figure it out, but found happiness in thinking about you, my daughter, and knowing that, life may end one day, but it sure would give me an endless beginning by your coming."

[qesehmk]

Yes. Absolutely. Most of the backlogged EB-I are not in their 20s anymore. Family and kids certainly creates restrictions and people tend to play it safe.


Lazy is probably a strong word to use.
Always its the Risk Vs Benefits before you consider anything. Also most folks have families, kids in school, owning homes, social circle. Needing to change all that is a huge deal and should not be interpreted as lazy IMHO.

[immitrickz]

I slept for 11 hours yesterday. And today morning, again following the aftermath :)

The discussion about portings, I think to be on conservative side, I would go with the 6k figure.

It is my belief that as the economy improves, there will be more people in EB1 and EB2 ROW, as well as EB5 will have more interest due to government will behind it as well as more bang for the buck being shown by economy. FB will also be dried out in terms of spillover, as people will not abandon their number and show up. And also as things improve, there maybe more willingness in organizations to take up people needing EB2 GC. So yes, this year and the next year are really important in terms of movement. This year, SOFAD was huge, but the months it had to travel were "fat", and hence time wise, the movement has not been even a year by now, but quantity wise, huge.

The economy is giving mixed signals, I am not an expert, but I don't see huge improvements for the next one year.

Apart from points already mentioned, most simple reason is, changing job is a hassle. Most people are quite senior by now who are in EB3 2002 to 2007, and many of them have working spouses because of EAD, they have houses, children going to school. It's not a split second decision for them. The EAD led to lot of life decisions being taken, which might also act as a hindrance in this life decision of job.

so on different topic, in last few months, I was wanting to start write a children's book. This is the first line of it, dedicated to my daughter.

"Stupefied by the constant bumbling of beings and life's very marshes, I many times thought of a very bothersome question. Why, why when the life is finite, and end unknown, such a quarrel to obtain the most neediest of things, and greed to grab the not so ones. I really could not figure it out, but found happiness in thinking about you, my daughter, and knowing that, life may end one day, but it sure would give me an endless beginning by your coming."

I am no expert on children books - but that's a very heavy duty stuff for a child to comprehend. My 2 cents :)

[nishant2200]

I am no expert on children books - but that's a very heavy duty stuff for a child to comprehend. My 2 cents :)

that's a sound advice. Rest of the stuff is simple. I will move it to the preface , dedications kind of section :)

[Stemcell]

Yes. Absolutely. Most of the backlogged EB-I are not in their 20s anymore. Family and kids certainly creates restrictions and people tend to play it safe.

Just like Vishy Anand who in his 20's would play super sharp like the sicilian dragon but now prefers Queens's gambit Lasker variation to be safe....if anyone is into chess. ;)

[qesehmk]

In a few more years he will move to golf and later to angrybirds :)


Just like Vishy Anand who in his 20's would play super sharp like the sicilian dragon but now prefers Queens's gambit Lasker variation to be safe....if anyone is into chess. ;)

[Stemcell]

In a few more years he will move to golf and later to angrybirds :)

Q,
You seem to like angry birds.... i just cant stand its music.....my kids think differently which is another story.
Check out World of Goo.

[nishant2200]

I spent last half an hour trying out various avatars, editing in Paint, uploading, trying. I can now understand why my wife likes to spend hours in the trial room in mall.

I wanted N, but it's taken. So I went with Snoopy!

[Spectator]

I spent last half an hour trying out various avatars, editing in Paint, uploading, trying. I can now understand why my wife likes to spend hours in the trial room in mall.

I wanted N, but it's taken. So I went with Snoopy!


I slept for 11 hours yesterday. And today morning, again following the aftermath :)nishant,

Perhaps your should be ZZZ. :D

[gcq]

I would recommend everyone to take their personal situation out of predictions and calculations. What I am seeing is (apart from Q, T, S etc) , people tend to paint a rosy picture for themselves. That is when predictions turn into speculations.

I had observed VDL Rao's predictions for a while. Initially his approach was based on facts. Then everybody including Rao himself turned overly optimistic and his predictions didn't reflect reality anymore. Keep emotions or personal situations out when predicting and making assumptions.

[neospeed]

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36144

updated processing times. I -140 are severely backlogged (:.

[PlainSpeak]

It seems like a waste of time worrying about porting numbers. EB3 I people who can port will port and those who cannot will not port. Porting depends on mutiple variables some of which are 4 years degree, economy, job being EB2, company willing to do EB2, family stability w.r.t. move to a different city for EB2 offer and a whole bunch of other variables. The variables are so many that is not possible to accurately predict porting numbers. All that can be done is using confirmed numbers from past demand data and making predictions for future which by definition is a prediction and not hard numbers. Unlike in the past we do get demand data for each month which can be used to come up with confirmed numbers.

[ssvp22]

It seems like a waste of time worrying about porting numbers. EB3 I people who can port will port and those who cannot will not port. Porting depends on mutiple variables some of which are 4 years degree, economy, job being EB2, company willing to do EB2, family stability w.r.t. move to a different city for EB2 offer and a whole bunch of other variables. The variables are so many that is not possible to accurately predict porting numbers. All that can be done is use confirmed numbers from past demand data and make predictions for future which by definition is a prediction and not hard numbers. Unlike in teh past we do get demand data for each month which can be used to come up with confirmed numbers.
Completely agree with this.

[Gclongwait]

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36144

updated processing times. I -140 are severely backlogged (:.

Not sure what this is. On USCIS website, NSC I-140 are now current. They were slightly backlogged some time back. TSC is still showing backlogged about 9 - 4 = 5 months. Although I have seen trackiitt approvals even though the priority dates were ahead of those shown on the website. I dont think these times are updated properly.

[Spectator]

Not sure what this is. On USCIS website, NSC I-140 are now current. They were slightly backlogged some time back. TSC is still showing backlogged about 9 - 4 = 5 months. Although I have seen trackiitt approvals even though the priority dates were ahead of those shown on the website. I dont think these times are updated properly.Gclongwait,

The processing times in the document are for cases sent to the Administrative Appeals Office (AAO) after a denial is appealed. They are notoriously slow, but it is interesting to see the latest figures.

[TeddyKoochu]

Not sure what this is. On USCIS website, NSC I-140 are now current. They were slightly backlogged some time back. TSC is still showing backlogged about 9 - 4 = 5 months. Although I have seen trackiitt approvals even though the priority dates were ahead of those shown on the website. I dont think these times are updated properly.

Most cases actually get approved before the processing dates, the dates are set quite liberally to have buffer time for the agencies and to dissuade people from calling.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. That explains it. I also was puzzled that those wait times didn't make any sense.


Gclongwait,

The processing times in the document are for cases sent to the Administrative Appeals Office (AAO) after a denial is appealed. They are notoriously slow, but it is interesting to see the latest figures.

[grnwtg]

Looks like everybody is having chilled talk...:) Good to take a break

[Pdmar08]

Need help. I was trying to see how the gurus are doing the calculations so naturally started with my own case PD MAR 2008.

Assuming current PD is Mar2007, i added all the Perms filed between April 2007 and March 2008.(including both months and all approvals not post august alone).
But these are I+C and EB2+EB3.
Do we have guestimate proportions for these to arrive at EB2I PERM cases? I was assuming 50-50 EB2-EB3 split and 20-80 C-I split. I am assuming 0 I140 rejections.
I know i will have to multiply the resulting number by 2.5-3for I485 application. Also will have to consider CP, Porting, others?
Am i on the right track?

[indiasunil]

Does Porting numbers making really any difference ?? Personally I doubt it.. After July 2007 either EB2 or EB3 cases are very less till end of Dec 2008 due to economy crisis. EB2 Cut of date is Apr 15 2007 now, porting numbers before April 15th will effect on dates movement ? I don't think so. After Apr 15 till July end assume that there 7K EB3 Applications, in that all will not go for porting.. We can expect atmost 10 to 20% max.(1500 ). As per my understanding the dates are keep on moving may be a month less or mote from last two VB's. We can expect the same movement in next SEP VB .. Surely it will reach March 2008 this year.

Please feel free to comment on my understanding.. Thanks.

[Stemcell]

Not sure if this has been addressed before.
Once EB2C backlog is cleared, there are 4125 pending,assuming if the remaining spillover in September 2011 just about clears it....assuming...or if there are less than 1000 remaining after spillover, the monthly quota of 250 should clear all the demand by Q1 2008 right?
What happens next is again unknown weather the dates are made current or if they move the dates to a given future date, either way there should be a flood of applications.....causing retrogression of EB2C, will they continue to treat EB2I and EB2C the same way as far as date movement ?

[grnwtg]

Need help. I was trying to see how the gurus are doing the calculations so naturally started with my own case PD MAR 2008.

Assuming current PD is Mar2007, i added all the Perms filed between April 2007 and March 2008.(including both months and all approvals not post august alone).
But these are I+C and EB2+EB3.
Do we have guestimate proportions for these to arrive at EB2I PERM cases? I was assuming 50-50 EB2-EB3 split and 20-80 C-I split. I am assuming 0 I140 rejections.
I know i will have to multiply the resulting number by 2.5-3for I485 application. Also will have to consider CP, Porting, others?
Am i on the right track?

I guess all these calculation are already done, refer to
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA

You will get more insight. And eb2 vs eb3 i do not believe that its 50-50, most of the people started filing eb2's in late 2007 and after.

[vizcard]

A CIR bill that was introduced last month. I don't expect any movement on this until after the re-election but it's worth keeping in mind. It has all the things that we know and expected previously.

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c112:S.1258:

[grnwtg]

Does Porting numbers making really any difference ?? Personally I doubt it.. After July 2007 either EB2 or EB3 cases are very less till end of Dec 2008 due to economy crisis. EB2 Cut of date is Apr 15 2007 now, porting numbers before April 15th will effect on dates movement ? I don't think so. After Apr 15 till July end assume that there 7K EB3 Applications, in that all will not go for porting.. We can expect atmost 10 to 20% max.(1500 ). As per my understanding the dates are keep on moving may be a month less or mote from last two VB's. We can expect the same movement in next SEP VB .. Surely it will reach March 2008 this year.

Please feel free to comment on my understanding.. Thanks.

Why do you thing porting of people whose priority date is before april 2007 do not count? there are lot of people who are porting with pd before april '07, as Q suggested there might not be increase from 2011 trend but it definetly affect eb2 atleast certain extent. overall if there are around 5k porting cases, i might play a big role next year.

[indiasunil]

My assumption : Last time when it dates were current in July/Aug. 2007, 90% of them applied for 485 & got EAD, AP. they will not go for any changes right. Only thing who did not apply for 485 in July/Aug 2007 - EB3 cases, in that hardly 10 to 20% eligible for porting.

[familyguy]

I asked similar question :)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)&p=4617#post4617


Not sure if this has been addressed before.
Once EB2C backlog is cleared, there are 4125 pending,assuming if the remaining spillover in September 2011 just about clears it....assuming...or if there are less than 1000 remaining after spillover, the monthly quota of 250 should clear all the demand by Q1 2008 right?
What happens next is again unknown weather the dates are made current or if they move the dates to a given future date, either way there should be a flood of applications.....causing retrogression of EB2C, will they continue to treat EB2I and EB2C the same way as far as date movement ?

[Stemcell]

I asked similar question :)
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)&p=4617#post4617

Family guy, you and i seem to be having the same frequency as they say....
But i am more worried about how the two categories are treated once EB2C retrogresses.Because right now both categories are being given spillover according to the backlog to even them out....

[neospeed]

Teddy and others,
when compared to last year eb2 row spill over was 12.5, why are we projecting only 8k this year from eb2 row, is there any specific reason?.

[qesehmk]

EB2C will not retrogress since they can't get spillover to get ahead of india. SO is given strictly in PD order.


Family guy, you and i seem to be having the same frequency as they say....
But i am more worried about how the two categories are treated once EB2C retrogresses.Because right now both categories are being given spillover according to the backlog to even them out....


Teddy and others,
when compared to last year eb2 row spill over was 12.5, why are we projecting only 8k this year from eb2 row, is there any specific reason?.
One particular reason is that 10 FB spillover to EB category is absent this year.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy and others,
when compared to last year eb2 row spill over was 12.5, why are we projecting only 8k this year from eb2 row, is there any specific reason?.

As Q answered is the missing FB spillover. In fact this missing FB spillover deprived us of ~ 7K SOFAD, things would have been very interesting this year if had this 7K SOFAD. The preadjudicated numbers would have gone to 0.

[Spectator]

Teddy and others,
when compared to last year eb2 row spill over was 12.5, why are we projecting only 8k this year from eb2 row, is there any specific reason?.Spillover from EB2-ROW last year was not 12.5, however you define it.

Spillover in FY2010 was made up as follows:

EB1 ------ 2,062
EB2-M ---- 2,199
EB2-P ------ 854
EB2-ROW -- 6,597 --- EB2-ROW-M-P -- 9,650
EB5 ------ 8,812
Total --- 20,524

Of this 20,434 was used by EB2-IC.

[PlainSpeak]

My assumption : Last time when it dates were current in July/Aug. 2007, 90% of them applied for 485 & got EAD, AP. they will not go for any changes right. Only thing who did not apply for 485 in July/Aug 2007 - EB3 cases, in that hardly 10 to 20% eligible for porting.

Why would you assume that those who are on EAD/AP will not port? I would assume that these poeple have been in wait and watch mode and seeing that EB3 I is not getting any spillover now and will not get in the future, they will have decide to start porting. Yes porting is a painfull process but it is better than waiting with no end is sight.

If anything porting will increase rather than decrease. Only question is what will be the % of increase. Some one here stated that a 9k porting count for 2012. I would hazard to guess lower at 6-7k, but this 6-7k increasing for every year.

[suninphx]

Why would you assume that those who are on EAD/AP will not port? I would assume that these poeple have been in wait and watch mode and seeing that EB3 I is not getting any spillover now and will not get in the future, they will have decide to start porting. Yes porting is a painfull process but it is better than waiting with no end is sight.

If anything porting will increase rather than decrease. Only question is what will be the % of increase. Some one here stated that a 9k porting count for 2012. I would hazard to guess lower at 6-7k, but this 6-7k increasing for every year.

You seem to have time now (to waste)..in your very first post you said discussing about porting is waste of time :)..just kdding

[Spectator]

Not sure if this has been addressed before.
Once EB2C backlog is cleared, there are 4125 pending,assuming if the remaining spillover in September 2011 just about clears it....assuming...or if there are less than 1000 remaining after spillover, the monthly quota of 250 should clear all the demand by Q1 2008 right?
What happens next is again unknown weather the dates are made current or if they move the dates to a given future date, either way there should be a flood of applications.....causing retrogression of EB2C, will they continue to treat EB2I and EB2C the same way as far as date movement ?Stemcell,

I agree it will be interesting to see what happens when EB2-C reaches the end of the current backlog and how DOS handle that. That might not happen until at least mid/late FY2012 and isn't likely to be independent of EB2-I.

Remember that EB2-C has 1,718 cases showing as July 2007 alone (which is more than EB2-I) in the June 2011 USCIS Inventory. This would prevent movement beyond July 2007 in Q1 and Q2 FY2012, if the backlog is not entirely eliminated in FY2011.

I don't understand why you feel EB2-C would retrogress. It might stall at July 2007, as PWMB demand comes on stream to be adjudicated, but I don't think it would retrogress (other than a month if PWMB came through quickly).

When spillover visas become available in Q3 or Q4, EB2-C would progress at the same rate as EB2-I, once EB2-I has reached the same Cut Off Date as EB2-C might have moved to.

[veni001]

Stemcell,

I agree it will be interesting to see what happens when EB2-C reaches the end of the current backlog and how DOS handle that. That might not happen until at least mid/late FY2012 and isn't likely to be independent of EB2-I.

Remember that EB2-C has 1,718 cases showing as July 2007 alone (which is more than EB2-I) in the June 2011 USCIS Inventory. This would prevent movement beyond July 2007 in Q1 and Q2 FY2012, if the backlog is not entirely eliminated in FY2011.

I don't understand why you feel EB2-C would retrogress. It might stall at July 2007, as PWMB demand comes on stream to be adjudicated, but I don't think it would retrogress (other than a month if PWMB came through quickly).

When spillover visas become available in Q3 or Q4, EB2-C would progress at the same rate as EB2-I, once EB2-I has reached the same Cut Off Date as EB2-C might have moved to.

Spec,
Assuming that the dates will not have jerky movement in the next two visa bulletins, EB2C movement will be key in predicting EB2I movement for next year
By October 2011 EB2C pending inventory will be more or less equal to FY2012 allocation and also PWMB+poring numbers for China will be about 1k(until Aug2007) and new demand will be about 2k(Sept-Dec 2007). Whatever be the SOFAD in FY2012 EB2I will get the lion share of it!

Q,
You can add less EB2C demand to you tailwinds for FY2012!

[Spectator]

Spec,
Assuming that the dates will not have jerky movement in the next two visa bulletins, EB2C movement will be key in predicting EB2I movement for next year
By October 2011 EB2C pending inventory will be more or less equal to FY2012 allocation and also PWMB+poring numbers for China will be about 1k(until Aug2007) and new demand will be about 2k(Sept-Dec 2007). Whatever be the SOFAD in FY2012 EB2I will get the lion share of it!

Q,
You can add less EB2C demand to you tailwinds for FY2012!Veni,

If the Cut Off Dates reach the end of May 2007 in the Sept VB, EB2-C would have around 2.4k cases left plus another 1.2k potential PWMB cases up to the end of July - a total of 3.6k.

If the Cut Off Dates reach the end of June 2007 in the Sept VB, EB2-C would have around 1.9k cases left plus another 1.2k potential PWMB cases up to the end of July - a total of 3.1k.

In both cases, the number of remaining pre-adjudicated cases is enough to use the new allocation in FY2012 until the PWMB cases are ready to adjudicate and the overall total is also more than the initial yearly 7% allocation.

This means that EB2-C would not run out of demand until Spillover Season and wouldn't have moved beyond July 2007 by that point.

Since EB2-I would have an earlier Cut Off Date at that point, EB2-I and EB2-C Cut Off Dates could only move together beyond the backlog, which would happen during Spillover Season (assuming enough spare visas), so no advance warning of how DOS intended to handle it would come from EB2-C.

I calculate new demand for EB2-C for the period August-December 2007 would be around 3.6k max, compared to India's 7.8k.

[veni001]

Veni,

If the Cut Off Dates reach the end of May 2007 in the Sept VB, EB2-C would have around 3.2k cases left plus another 1.2k potential PWMB cases up to the end of July - a total of 4.4k.

If the Cut Off Dates reach the end of June 2007 in the Sept VB, EB2-C would have around 1.9k cases left plus another 1.2k potential PWMB cases up to the end of July - a total of 3.1k.

In both cases, the number of remaining pre-adjudicated cases is enough to use the new allocation uin FY2012 ntil the PWMB cases are ready to adjudicate and the overall total is also more than the initial yearly 7% allocation.

This means that EB2-C would not run out of demand until Spillover Season and wouldn't have moved beyond July 2007 by that point.

Since EB2-I would have an earlier Cut Off Date at that point, EB2-I and EB2-C Cut Off Dates could only move together beyond the backlog, which would happen during Spillover Season (assuming enough spare visas), so no advance warning of how DOS intended to handle it would come from EB2-C.

I calculate new demand for EB2-C for the period August-December 2007 would be around 3.6k max, compared to India's 7.8k.

Spec,
I am in agreement with your EB2C numbers but little confused with 7.8k EB2I calculation for Aug-Dec2007.
Just looking at PERM data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) for that period EBC:EBI is 1:4, if we take same EB2:EB3 ratio for both I&C then EB2I demand for the same period should be 4 times EBC demand? am I missing sth ?

[veni001]

USCIS Interim Memo on Changes to RFE Timeframes (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Feedback%20Opportunities/Interim%20Guidance%20for%20Comment/change-timeframes-rfe.pdf)

[Spectator]

Spec,
I am in agreement with your EB2C numbers but little confused with 7.8k EB2I calculation for Aug-Dec2007.
Just looking at PERM data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) for that period EBC:EBI is 1:4, if we take same E2:EB3 ratio for both I&C then EB2I demand for the same period should be 4 times EBC demand? am I missing sth ?Veni,

I am basing the figures on the real life conversion ratio seen in Jan-July 2007. I think that is fair for the remainder of 2007, but I don't use it beyond then.

Although the PERM figures show a 4 to 1 ratio, there seem to be different conversion rates to I-485 for China and India.

We know the reality in the USCIS Inventory and Demand Data for 2007 to date is that the ratio of I-485 cases is nearer 2 to 1 for India to China.

I have taken that into account, as well as the actual monthly totals individually for China and India in the period August to December 2007.

If I use exactly the same figures in August to December 2007 as Jan to July 2007, the India number rises to 9.1k, if that helps you.

Possibly my China figures might be slightly high and India's slightly low post July 2007, but I don't think by huge margins.

[veni001]

Veni,

I am basing the figures on the real life conversion ratio seen in Jan-July 2007. I think that is fair for the remainder of 2007, but I don't use it beyond then.

Although the PERM figures show a 4 to 1 ratio, there seem to be different conversion rates to I-485 for China and India.

We know the reality in the USCIS Inventory and Demand Data for 2007 to date is that the ratio of I-485 cases is nearer 2 to 1 for India to China.

I have taken that into account, as well as the actual monthly totals individually for China and India in the period August to December 2007.

If I use exactly the same figures in August to December 2007 as Jan to July 2007, the India number rises to 9.1k, if that helps you.

Possibly my China figures might be slightly high and India's slightly low post July 2007, but I don't think by huge margins.

Spec,
Agree, conversion ratios are different for I&C. I am comfortable with your second approach (EBI Jan-July'07 PERM vs i485) than the first.

[PlainSpeak]

You seem to have time now (to waste)..in your very first post you said discussing about porting is waste of time :)..just kdding

I said discussing about porting and predicting the count of porting is waste of time. Instead wait till the next demand data is released and then make calculation not prediction.

A smile and Just kidding at the end of your statement does not make your post any less arrogant and destable. Instead of insulting others here on this forum which has some decorum why dont you try doing the same in another forum (which wil not be named ...) where actions such as yours are welcome nay thrived upon.

[familyguy]

Spec,
If all May 2007 cases are cleared then as per USCIS inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20January%2005 ,%202011.pdf) EB2C will have around 2346 cases (June 2007 - 558 and July 2007 - 1788)... Not sure how you got 3.2K?


Veni,

If the Cut Off Dates reach the end of May 2007 in the Sept VB, EB2-C would have around 3.2k cases left plus another 1.2k potential PWMB cases up to the end of July - a total of 4.4k.

If the Cut Off Dates reach the end of June 2007 in the Sept VB, EB2-C would have around 1.9k cases left plus another 1.2k potential PWMB cases up to the end of July - a total of 3.1k.

In both cases, the number of remaining pre-adjudicated cases is enough to use the new allocation uin FY2012 ntil the PWMB cases are ready to adjudicate and the overall total is also more than the initial yearly 7% allocation.

This means that EB2-C would not run out of demand until Spillover Season and wouldn't have moved beyond July 2007 by that point.

Since EB2-I would have an earlier Cut Off Date at that point, EB2-I and EB2-C Cut Off Dates could only move together beyond the backlog, which would happen during Spillover Season (assuming enough spare visas), so no advance warning of how DOS intended to handle it would come from EB2-C.

I calculate new demand for EB2-C for the period August-December 2007 would be around 3.6k max, compared to India's 7.8k.

[Spectator]

Spec,
If all May 2007 cases are cleared then as per USCIS inventory (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20January%2005 ,%202011.pdf) EB2C will have around 2346 cases (June 2007 - 558 and July 2007 - 1788)... Not sure how you got 3.2K?familyguy,

Good spot! Maybe I was being numerically dyslexic and meant 2.3k at the time! I don't know.

It should read 2.4 - 2.5k. From June 2011 USCIS Inventory (June - 545, July - 1,718, August - 168)

I will edit the original posting.

Thanks.

[neospeed]

Spillover from EB2-ROW last year was not 12.5, however you define it.

Spillover in FY2010 was made up as follows:

EB1 ------ 2,062
EB2-M ---- 2,199
EB2-P ------ 854
EB2-ROW -- 6,597 --- EB2-ROW-M-P -- 9,650
EB5 ------ 8,812
Total --- 20,524

Of this 20,434 was used by EB2-IC.

Thanks Spec for the detailed breakup of numbers.


Just wondering how the spillover happens, are there any rules when they are going to apply vertical spillover vs horizontal spillover?.

Just wondering if horizontal spillover only happens during last two months of fy. any thoughts

[suninphx]

I said discussing about porting and predicting the count of porting is waste of time. Instead wait till the next demand data is released and then make calculation not prediction.

A smile and Just kidding at the end of your statement does not make your post any less arrogant and destable. Instead of insulting others here on this forum which has some decorum why dont you try doing the same in another forum (which wil not be named ...) where actions such as yours are welcome nay thrived upon.

Thanks for polite response. If you read your post again you also predicted some numbers.

[indiasunil]

http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/august-2011-visa-bulletin-and.html

Find detailed explanation on Calculations.

[familyguy]

Spec, You are preeminent in number crunching :)... I think it was just a typo...




familyguy,

Good spot! Maybe I was being numerically dyslexic and meant 2.3k at the time! I don't know.

It should read 2.4 - 2.5k. From June 2011 USCIS Inventory (June - 545, July - 1,718, August - 168)

I will edit the original posting.

Thanks.

[ssvp22]

Is there a possibility that EB2C gets current, in Q1-Q3 2012 FY, while India being retrogressed? If yes, that can lead to EB2C PWMBs and the rest to file 485. Will that impact EB2I in any way?

[pdfeb09]

August Visa Bulletin is out <EOM>

EB2IC = 15 Apr 07

Congrats to all who will be current come August !

[soggadu]

So have all the guru's reached a conclusion that in FY 2011 we dont see India going > July 07 ?? People after july need to wait till next year Q2 or Q3?...

[soggadu]

August Visa Bulletin is out <EOM>

EB2IC = 15 Apr 07

Congrats to all who will be current come August !

yes it is... nothing exciting in that bulletin... but Q and some others got electric... so somethings better than nothing... something to celebrate...

[TeddyKoochu]

So have all the guru's reached a conclusion that in FY 2011 we dont see India going > July 07 ?? People after july need to wait till next year Q2 or Q3?...

This is just my personal opinion ~ 30K SOFAD has already been applied and probably around 2-3K maybe left. The date movement will be in the range 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007. The chances of large date movement are significantly less so have to wait really for the next spillover season / fresh intake.

[imechanix]

I found an interesting correlation between "Number of Perm Filings for India/China" & "Dow Jones Industrial Average". I wish I could share the graph plots. There is a good correlation within 5-10% error.

Formula as stated below:
Monthly Average DJIA Index / 4.5 = "Approximate Number of Perm Filings"

I also found that there is a few months lag between DJIA & Number of Filings. So, I guess you can possibly predict out future PERM filings.

This exercise was just for fun, I was curious about the effect of economy on perm filings.

Note: Data studied between Jan 2007 & Dec 2010 from Spec's Fact & Data.

[ssvp22]

I found an interesting correlation between "Number of Perm Filings for India/China" & "Dow Jones Industrial Average". I wish I could share the graph plots. There is a good correlation within 5-10% error.

Formula as stated below:
Monthly Average DJIA Index / 4.5 = "Approximate Number of Perm Filings"

I also found that there is a few months lag between DJIA & Number of Filings. So, I guess you can possibly predict out future PERM filings.

This exercise was just for fun, I was curious about the effect of economy on perm filings.

Note: Data studied between Jan 2007 & Dec 2010 from Spec's Fact & Data.
You are on the way to become Ramanujan 2.0

[PlainSpeak]

Thanks for polite response. If you read your post again you also predicted some numbers.

If you see my post you will notice that I did not say (predict) 9 k or 15 k or 1k. I stated 6 k based on hard facts by the number crunchers out here and the demand data.
In any case all this back and forth doees not make any sense so will it make you happy if i just say you are right and end it here.

[GC-Utopic]

Spec, R u lrindy from trackitt by any chance? just curious because of the usage of the word "whilst" by both, which I dont see very often,, It doesnt bother me either way, U rock!!!, v r lucky to hv u r insights,,, cheers,,





familyguy,

Good spot! Maybe I was being numerically dyslexic and meant 2.3k at the time! I don't know.

It should read 2.4 - 2.5k. From June 2011 USCIS Inventory (June - 545, July - 1,718, August - 168)

I will edit the original posting.

Thanks.

[srinu_chirala]

Thanks for updates.... Teddykoochu is rock.

[Spectator]

This is just my personal opinion ~ 30K SOFAD has already been applied and probably around 2-3K maybe left. The date movement will be in the range 01-MAY-2007 to 15-MAY-2007. The chances of large date movement are significantly less so have to wait really for the next spillover season / fresh intake.Teddy I agree with you.

If the VO are purely moving by the numbers and give the same amount in September as August, the CUD might scrape to 01JUN07. The absolute best I can see is 22JUN07, but that would require more visas in September than August, which would be unusual.

The trend for total numbers of pending cases for EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P in successive USCIS Inventories tells a chilling tale.

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,934
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964
27 May 2010 -- 14,138
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130

Bear in mind that, according to the Ombudsman's response document last year, an I-485 where the Category/Country is Current is not shown in the Inventory unless the underlying I-140 has already been adjudicated, so these cases are merely awaiting adjudication of the I-485 itself.


This includes cases for which visas are currently available but have not yet been adjudicated to completion, and cases that have been pre-adjudicated because the applicant is otherwise eligible but a visa is not currently available.

In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory.
This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times.

However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report.

[qesehmk]

I think we all were reasonably close anyway. I think as of now we just dont have enough evidence to rule out 3-4 months movement in September. But I am going to rule out completely any talk of FD to EB3. That's for sure.

So as far as SFM (sustainable forward movement) for EB2IC is concerned ... it wouldnt be imprudent to expect another 6 weeks movement. i.e. 1 Jun 2007. Anything beyond that would be a bit stretch.

As far as BTM (big temporary movement) for EB2IC is concerned ... that would ONLY be possible if next month there an SFM of at least 8 weeks.



So have all the guru's reached a conclusion that in FY 2011 we dont see India going > July 07 ?? People after july need to wait till next year Q2 or Q3?...


I found an interesting correlation between "Number of Perm Filings for India/China" & "Dow Jones Industrial Average". I wish I could share the graph plots. There is a good correlation within 5-10% error.

Formula as stated below:
Monthly Average DJIA Index / 4.5 = "Approximate Number of Perm Filings"

I also found that there is a few months lag between DJIA & Number of Filings. So, I guess you can possibly predict out future PERM filings.

This exercise was just for fun, I was curious about the effect of economy on perm filings.

Note: Data studied between Jan 2007 & Dec 2010 from Spec's Fact & Data.

With all teh anti-immigrant sentiment, it would be interesting to see if the correlation holds as economy bounces!

[leo4ever]

Thats a different and intresting thought. But Dow Jones or Nasdaq is not a good indicator of economy i guess.
I still think its intresting though..


I found an interesting correlation between "Number of Perm Filings for India/China" & "Dow Jones Industrial Average". I wish I could share the graph plots. There is a good correlation within 5-10% error.

Formula as stated below:
Monthly Average DJIA Index / 4.5 = "Approximate Number of Perm Filings"

I also found that there is a few months lag between DJIA & Number of Filings. So, I guess you can possibly predict out future PERM filings.

This exercise was just for fun, I was curious about the effect of economy on perm filings.

Note: Data studied between Jan 2007 & Dec 2010 from Spec's Fact & Data.

[qesehmk]

plainspeak, not to take sides with suninphx .... but he has been around for a while and I haven't seen him engage in nasty behavior. So may be ... just may be ... give him some benefit of doubt.

Thanks for your contributions.

[Stemcell]

Teddy I agree with you.

If the VO are purely moving by the numbers and give the same amount in September as August, the CUD might scrape to 01JUN07. The absolute best I can see is 22JUN07, but that would require more visas in September than August, which would be unusual.

The trend for total numbers of pending cases for EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P in successive USCIS Inventories tells a chilling tale.

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,934
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964
27 May 2010 -- 14,138
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130

Bear in mind that, according to the Ombudsman's response document last year, an I-485 where the Category/Country is Current is not shown in the Inventory unless the underlying I-140 has already been adjudicated, so these cases are merely awaiting adjudication of the I-485 itself.


Spec,

This is my main question. Lets say all the pending applications for EB1 and EB2ROW are approved in 2012, will there be any spillover left for EB2IC for 2012 ?
Looks like with PD of October 07 i missed out this year but i want to know where i stand next year ....
Thanks again.

[TeddyKoochu]

Bear in mind that, according to the Ombudsman's response document last year, an I-485 where the Category/Country is Current is not shown in the Inventory unless the underlying I-140 has already been adjudicated, so these cases are merely awaiting adjudication of the I-485 itself.

Spec thanks for all the details, you always provide the best information. Its a really scary situation of all these cases have an approved I140 and are just awaiting I485 adjudication. I believe 95% or even 98% of them will materialize and this is very scary for the coming years SOFAD. I think in the next inventory it will be very prudent to see the number of I485's for EB1 and EB2 ROW.


Spec,

This is my main question. Lets say all the pending applications for EB1 and EB2ROW are approved in 2012, will there be any spillover left for EB2IC for 2012 ?
Looks like with PD of October 07 i missed out this year but i want to know where i stand next year ....
Thanks again.

I believe that Aug and Sep will be a 30-40% of these cases being approved but when the next inventory comes out we may not see any changes. Such a large backlog of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases could diminish next year’s SOFAD to a level of ~ 20-22K. In that case assuming extra intake is done in a timely manner your case may become borderline, this however is a worst case scenario. In normal scenario or a good one you will definitely be covered to be able to file for 485 if not GC. Your chances of getting GC by Sep 2012 are definitely higher than 80%.

[bieber]

I believe that Aug and Sep will be a 30-40% of these cases being approved but when the next inventory comes out we may not see any changes. Such a large backlog of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases could diminish next year’s SOFAD to a level of ~ 20-22K. In that case assuming extra intake is done in a timely manner your case may become borderline, this however is a worst case scenario. In normal scenario or a good one you will definitely be covered to be able to file for 485 if not GC. Your chances of getting GC by Sep 2012 are definitely higher than 80%.

Teddy

If you are projecting 22k sofad, entire 2007 should be getting gcs. trying to understand why did you say 80% for October PD

[bieber]

Kanmani

JJ for jayalalitha?

[qesehmk]

Spec / Teddy,

Absolutely. That's why I say that what's been a good news is going to turn into a pain next year. However if you notice there is a silver lining to EB1. The quota is 40K, the inventory as of June is 10K. And the projected spillover is 15K-20K implying that the full year demand was around 30-35K which is certainly less than prior years. So in other words, the kazarian memo has not only resulted in delays in approvals of the cases filed but has also discouraged filing of EB1 cases to a very significant extent.

The EB2-ROWMP picture is a bit unclear to me since there SOFAD is not that clear until September is behind us. But as of now it seems ROWMP EB2 was unaffected YoY. Which is why the FA from them will be adjusted down by approx portion of 10K FB spillover last year.

So what it means for next year is that the worst case SOFAD will be as follows:

1. EB5 (6-7K).
2. EB1 (0 - (-2K))
3. EB2 ROW (3-5K)
4. EB2IC (5.6K)
------------------
Total (14K average).

So even in worst case EB2IC should positively reach a level where they have to take fresh applications in. The best case however could be that the kazarian situation contines to haunt EB1. There is not much wrong with EB2ROWMP really since 10K of Jun Inventory this year is only 3-4K higher than equivalent last year. So the real moving piece will come from EB1 as far as next year is concerned. The upside to 14K would be then 15-20K just like this year. So one can do the math and say the date could move between Aug 2007-Q1 2008 in FY 2012 (as far as SFM is concerned). The BTM is still in play at DoS' mercy.



Spec thanks for all the details, you always provide the best information. Its a really scary situation of all these cases have an approved I140 and are just awaiting I485 adjudication. I believe 95% or even 98% of them will materialize and this is very scary for the coming years SOFAD. I think in the next inventory it will be very prudent to see the number of I485's for EB1 and EB2 ROW.



I believe that Aug and Sep will be a 30-40% of these cases being approved but when the next inventory comes out we may not see any changes. Such a large backlog of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases could diminish next year’s SOFAD to a level of ~ 20-22K. In that case assuming extra intake is done in a timely manner your case may become borderline, this however is a worst case scenario. In normal scenario or a good one you will definitely be covered to be able to file for 485 if not GC. Your chances of getting GC by Sep 2012 are definitely higher than 80%.


Spec,

This is my main question. Lets say all the pending applications for EB1 and EB2ROW are approved in 2012, will there be any spillover left for EB2IC for 2012 ?
Looks like with PD of October 07 i missed out this year but i want to know where i stand next year ....
Thanks again.

[vizcard]

so does that mean an Aug 08 PD is in doubt for FY12 without a BTM ?

[qesehmk]

Based on today's understanding - yes - unfortunately.
so does that mean an Aug 08 PD is in doubt for FY12 without a BTM ?

[nishant2200]

perspective. I think more than 300k visa numbers wasted due to in-efficiency in years before last few years, and of course, they don't roll over. This is part of the visa re-capture proposal, that as we all know, is having bleak future. And here we are in situation where even 5k visas can make someone's dreams come true!

[ssvp22]

Based on today's understanding - yes - unfortunately.
Wooow. That's real bad. Looks like 4 year GC thumb rule is turning out be 6 years now.

[neospeed]

perspective. I think more than 300k visa numbers wasted due to in-efficiency in years before last few years, and of course, they don't roll over. This is part of the visa re-capture proposal, that as we all know, is having bleak future. And here we are in situation where even 5k visas can make someone's dreams come true!

Coming to visa recapture, there is a bill in congress:

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h2161/show

I request everyone to sign up and support this bill, that's only hope for long waiting eb3 folks

[leo07]

I slightly differ here with TeddyK and you...
I think 5 week forward movement in August VB was a cautious move from CO -- remember he was holding until last minute to see the numbers for July VB?

At the end of the day, everyone wants to cover their backs first. I think there will be atleast 4-7k of visas(EB1+EB2) together left, to be allocated in the month of September.(August vb).(80/12)


Teddy I agree with you.

If the VO are purely moving by the numbers and give the same amount in September as August, the CUD might scrape to 01JUN07. The absolute best I can see is 22JUN07, but that would require more visas in September than August, which would be unusual.

The trend for total numbers of pending cases for EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P in successive USCIS Inventories tells a chilling tale.

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,934
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964
27 May 2010 -- 14,138
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130

Bear in mind that, according to the Ombudsman's response document last year, an I-485 where the Category/Country is Current is not shown in the Inventory unless the underlying I-140 has already been adjudicated, so these cases are merely awaiting adjudication of the I-485 itself.

[ssvp22]

Coming to visa recapture, there is a bill in congress:

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h2161/show
I request everyone to sign up and support this bill, that's only hope for long waiting eb3 folks
Given the fact that we are non-citizens, does voting on the bill really help?

[qesehmk]

Leo I agree with you for 3 reasons:
1. Last year there was quite a good movement in September.
2. The trackitt trend is still supporting decent SOFAD remaining.
3. Its prudent on DoS' part to keep some SOFAD for September lest they don't prioritize backlog over those who are already current (read EB1 and EB2ROW)

p.s. - I think Spec is still predicting a range larger than Teddy. Teddy has become a bit conservative. But all in all these are minor differences really. The fact is now the difference is really between gut feel and hope.

I slightly differ here with TeddyK and you...
I think 5 week forward movement in August VB was a cautious move from CO -- remember he was holding until last minute to see the numbers for July VB?

At the end of the day, everyone wants to cover their backs first. I think there is at least 4-7k of visas(EB1+EB2) together will be left to be allocated in the month of September.(August vb).(80/12)

[kolugc]

I was really excited when I read/learned about the June 2008 NVC (my PD is June 9, 2008).... And so was sure I will get the chance apply for 485 before 2012 May-June. I also read some where that the NVC is is only valid for one year. But now with what we know it does not look realistic. So the NVC funda is not the right assumption I guess. Do you guys agree?

[nishant2200]

Coming to visa recapture, there is a bill in congress:

http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h2161/show

I request everyone to sign up and support this bill, that's only hope for long waiting eb3 folks

Done. the website itself is like a real democratic dream come true. I glossed over the bill text too. At least someone paid a thought.

[soggadu]

Spec / Teddy,

Absolutely. That's why I say that what's been a good news is going to turn into a pain next year. However if you notice there is a silver lining to EB1. The quota is 40K, the inventory as of June is 10K. And the projected spillover is 15K-20K implying that the full year demand was around 30-35K which is certainly less than prior years. So in other words, the kazarian memo has not only resulted in delays in approvals of the cases filed but has also discouraged filing of EB1 cases to a very significant extent.

The EB2-ROWMP picture is a bit unclear to me since there SOFAD is not that clear until September is behind us. But as of now it seems ROWMP EB2 was unaffected YoY. Which is why the FA from them will be adjusted down by approx portion of 10K FB spillover last year.

So what it means for next year is that the worst case SOFAD will be as follows:

1. EB5 (6-7K).
2. EB1 (0 - (-2K))
3. EB2 ROW (3-5K)
4. EB2IC (5.6K)
------------------
Total (14K average).

So even in worst case EB2IC should positively reach a level where they have to take fresh applications in. The best case however could be that the kazarian situation contines to haunt EB1. There is not much wrong with EB2ROWMP really since 10K of Jun Inventory this year is only 3-4K higher than equivalent last year. So the real moving piece will come from EB1 as far as next year is concerned. The upside to 14K would be then 15-20K just like this year. So one can do the math and say the date could move between Aug 2007-Q1 2008 in FY 2012 (as far as SFM is concerned). The BTM is still in play at DoS' mercy.

Thank you for the detailed analysis... i guess i just became too optimistic as dates started moving before spilover season this year. But now i am back and agree that PD Oct 07 have to wait till next year...

[neospeed]

Given the fact that we are non-citizens, does voting on the bill really help?

Just a public opinion. Nothing to do if you are citizen or not. If they see more votes, atleast be considered to go thru the commitee.

[ssvp22]

I was really excited when I read/learned about the June 2008 NVC (my PD is June 9, 2008).... And so was sure I will get the chance apply for 485 before 2012 May-June. I also read some where that the NVC is is only valid for one year. But now with what we know it does not look realistic. So the NVC funda is not the right assumption I guess. Do you guys agree?
I think Spec or someone commented earlier that NVC fee does not really expire. If that is true, the complete theory collapses

[ssvp22]

Just a public opinion. Nothing to do if you are citizen or not. If they see more votes, atleast be considered to go thru the commitee.

okay. I will vote anyway

[nishant2200]

Leo I agree with you for 3 reasons:
1. Last year there was quite a good movement in September.
2. The trackitt trend is still supporting decent SOFAD remaining.
3. Its prudent on DoS' part to keep some SOFAD for September lest they don't prioritize backlog over those who are already current (read EB1 and EB2ROW)

Q, I also think one simple reason might be they don't have any mechanism to have "sorted" queue distribution to their officers. It seems to me that whatever files the officer lays hands on, they win. The last bulletin may have been a move to "throttle" the assignments. I think 2 months is also otherwise enough for a clear lucky case of a PWMB or a dependent to go through.

I don't think they have a process where they can say that although I have opened the gate to certain date, only people with some other date priori to this one will be considered. They kind of try to say that saying visas will be assigned from SO in order of PD, but I think they don't have a process to verify/enforce it, except having careful movement in the bulletins.

[qblogfan]

I checked the trackitt data and analyzed it by approval date. I analyzed the June and July approval data.

I found totally 8% of the total approvals are EB2 ROW and EB1 from July1st to July 13th.

Totally 17% of the total approvals are EB2 ROW and EB1 in June.

I think EB1 and EB2 are still being approved, but at a slow speed.


Leo I agree with you for 3 reasons:
1. Last year there was quite a good movement in September.
2. The trackitt trend is still supporting decent SOFAD remaining.
3. Its prudent on DoS' part to keep some SOFAD for September lest they don't prioritize backlog over those who are already current (read EB1 and EB2ROW)

[nishant2200]

I think Spec or someone commented earlier that NVC fee does not really expire. If that is true, the complete theory collapses

The fee, once paid, is valid forever. But you have to pay fee within one year from the notice date, else your case is considered abandoned. Unless of course, the applicant is able to change his intent from CP to AOS if possible for his situation.

[qblogfan]

I agree with your analysis.

I think 4k-7k is a reasonable estimation.

My personal estimation is 5k-10k spillover should be expected in September.



I slightly differ here with TeddyK and you...
I think 5 week forward movement in August VB was a cautious move from CO -- remember he was holding until last minute to see the numbers for July VB?

At the end of the day, everyone wants to cover their backs first. I think there will be atleast 4-7k of visas(EB1+EB2) together left, to be allocated in the month of September.(August vb).(80/12)

[druvraj]

Q what is your feeling about Feb 2008 in 2012?

[Spectator]

Guys,

I have been looking a little more at this.

Here's a more detailed breakdown (correcting a small error I found).

- Inv Date ---- Total ---- EB2 ----- EB1

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,918 --- 5,950 --- 2,968
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964 --- 3,657 --- 2,307
27 May 2010 -- 14,138 --- 6,763 --- 7,375
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510 --- 9,915 --- 7,595
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388 --- 8,935 --- 8,453
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130 -- 10,142 --- 9,988

The Kazarian case was heard in March 2010, so the rise in numbers is post Kazarian.

Is it possible that the rise in pending EB2 cases represent NIW (which generally are also Exceptional Ability cases)?

It does seem possible that a final decision might have been postponed until the adjudicators received training on adjudicating EB1 and EB2-NIW after the decision.

Subsequent processing times seem to have increased substantially, which would also raise the figures.

I have never found any statistics as to what % of total EB2 approvals that NIW represent. I don't think that Trackitt necessarily provides reliable figures, but it suggests around 10% for ROW (excl. M-P).

Post Kazarian, NIW should also become more difficult and perhaps less people will therefore apply or get approved, just like EB1A and EB1B.

Just talking out loud to add to the discussion.

[SChowdary]

So if its a 4 - 7 k estimate it would atleast move to end of June, which would be the estimated movement that you had before the bulletin came out....

[qesehmk]

neospeed thanks. I voted and would encourage everybody to vote too.

Coming to visa recapture, there is a bill in congress:
http://www.opencongress.org/bill/112-h2161/show
I request everyone to sign up and support this bill, that's only hope for long waiting eb3 folks

nishant yes they don't have a strict FIFO. They have gained high level control but at micro level of course this certainly seems quite random.

Q, I also think one simple reason might be they don't have any mechanism to have "sorted" queue distribution to their officers. It seems to me that whatever files the officer lays hands on, they win. The last bulletin may have been a move to "throttle" the assignments. I think 2 months is also otherwise enough for a clear lucky case of a PWMB or a dependent to go through.

I don't think they have a process where they can say that although I have opened the gate to certain date, only people with some other date priori to this one will be considered. They kind of try to say that saying visas will be assigned from SO in order of PD, but I think they don't have a process to verify/enforce it, except having careful movement in the bulletins.

qblogfan one caution with trackitt data. For certain categories for certain months the data becomes so thin that I do not dare to come to any conclusion. So I ALWAYS ALWAYS look at teh cumulative data to overcome this shortcoming.


I think EB1 and EB2 are still being approved, but at a slow speed.

[qesehmk]

Spec one would argue that in 2010 DoS zealously overcleared EB1 and EB2ROW. So of all the data points you provide I would rather look at teh May 2010 level and compare to Jun 2011 inventory. The delta is really Kazarian impact. The rest movement in SOFAD would be attributable to timing of USCIS and DoS processing.


Guys,

I have been looking a little more at this.

Here's a more detailed breakdown (correcting a small error I found).

- Inv Date ---- Total ---- EB2 ----- EB1

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,918 --- 5,950 --- 2,968
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964 --- 3,657 --- 2,307
27 May 2010 -- 14,138 --- 6,763 --- 7,375
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510 --- 9,915 --- 7,595
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388 --- 8,935 --- 8,453
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130 -- 10,142 --- 9,988

The Kazarian case was heard in March 2010, so the rise in numbers is post Kazarian.

Is it possible that the rise in pending EB2 cases represent NIW (which generally are also Exceptional Ability cases)?

It does seem possible that a final decision might have been postponed until the adjudicators received training on adjudicating EB1 and EB2-NIW after the decision.

Subsequent processing times seem to have increased substantially, which would also raise the figures.

I have never found any statistics as to what % of total EB2 approvals that NIW represent. I don't think that Trackitt necessarily provides reliable figures, but it suggests around 10% for ROW (excl. M-P).

Post Kazarian, NIW should also become more difficult and perhaps less people will therefore apply or get approved, just like EB1A and EB1B.

Just talking out loud to add to the discussion.

[Spectator]

I slightly differ here with TeddyK and you...
I think 5 week forward movement in August VB was a cautious move from CO -- remember he was holding until last minute to see the numbers for July VB?

At the end of the day, everyone wants to cover their backs first. I think there will be atleast 4-7k of visas(EB1+EB2) together left, to be allocated in the month of September.(August vb).(80/12)Leo,

No problem. :cool:

My dates were based on how much SOFAD I think is remaining (30.5k used, 4k remaining for September). Even for me, there is the possibility that EB1/EB2/EB5 slow down slightly, releasing a bit more or the date is a week or two later to ensure no wastage.

We all, individually have our own estimates of how much SOFAD there will be and how many visas have been used to date.

It is not an exact science and it is natural that each of us will have a different result - some more pessimistic than others. Everybody needs to understand that.

Of course, if the August VB was a typo ............. :o Let's not go there!

[pch053]

On the # of trackitt EB2I approvals for the month of July, we are almost in the middle of the month and have about 103 approvals so far. For the months of May and June there were 162 and 259 approvals respectively. In addition, we also need to consider the fact the PD movement was much more in July than it was in May or even June. We know that there were very few approvals in the 1st week of July but I think the approvals have picked up since then. So, if this rate of approval continues in trackitt for the month of July, we will fall short of the # of approvals we saw in June. Does this indicate that there will be non-negligible number of cases that are not going to be approved even though they are current?

[qesehmk]

Nope .... if that was the situation they wouldn've have moved dates for August.
On the # of trackitt EB2I approvals for the month of July, we are almost in the middle of the month and have about 103 approvals so far. For the months of May and June there were 162 and 259 approvals respectively. In addition, we also need to consider the fact the PD movement was much more in July than it was in May or even June. We know that there were very few approvals in the 1st week of July but I think the approvals have picked up since then. So, if this rate of approval continues in trackitt for the month of July, we will fall short of the # of approvals we saw in June. Does this indicate that there will be non-negligible number of cases that are not going to be approved even though they are current?

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

If you are projecting 22k sofad, entire 2007 should be getting gcs. trying to understand why did you say 80% for October PD

This is actually the worst case scenario I hope that it does not turn out to be true. Actually the entire SOFAD cannot be attributed towards forward movement from Aug the following demand is also going to be there a) 5-6K Preadjudicated cases b) 4K PWMB c) 6K porting this will constantly come by. So when it comes for actual GC approval these numbers will also count. We are now so used to 30K SOFAD that anything less will really hurt.

[Spectator]

On the # of trackitt EB2I approvals for the month of July, we are almost in the middle of the month and have about 103 approvals so far. For the months of May and June there were 162 and 259 approvals respectively. In addition, we also need to consider the fact the PD movement was much more in July than it was in May or even June. We know that there were very few approvals in the 1st week of July but I think the approvals have picked up since then. So, if this rate of approval continues in trackitt for the month of July, we will fall short of the # of approvals we saw in June. Does this indicate that there will be non-negligible number of cases that are not going to be approved even though they are current?pch,

It has been noted by, (TK) I think, that the % of Trackitt cases is starting to vary for the period made Current per VB. i.e 100 Trackitt approvals represent a different number of "real" approvals in different months. This means that using the overall average % for last year may understate approvals.

In the FACTS & DATA section, I have already added a couple of extra columns to EB2-I (with explanations) to try to address this issue, but I don't know how successfully.

It might be worth checking out.

[TeddyKoochu]

Based on today's understanding - yes - unfortunately.

Most PWMB's are examples that even getting to 485 maybe difficult in the 4Yr timeframe, 5 years is pretty realistic.

[angryclubs]

can anyone try checking the status of their case on USCIS website? I keep getting the below error:

Validation Error(s)
You must correct the following error(s) before proceeding:
Login failed. Your User ID and/or Password are invalid.
Multiple duplicate SRs already exist for the customer

i know that there is nothing wrong with user id or password. why is the status website showing information about duplicate sr's ?

[TeddyKoochu]

I slightly differ here with TeddyK and you...
I think 5 week forward movement in August VB was a cautious move from CO -- remember he was holding until last minute to see the numbers for July VB?

At the end of the day, everyone wants to cover their backs first. I think there will be atleast 4-7k of visas(EB1+EB2) together left, to be allocated in the month of September.(August vb).(80/12)


Leo I agree with you for 3 reasons:
1. Last year there was quite a good movement in September.
2. The trackitt trend is still supporting decent SOFAD remaining.
3. Its prudent on DoS' part to keep some SOFAD for September lest they don't prioritize backlog over those who are already current (read EB1 and EB2ROW)

p.s. - I think Spec is still predicting a range larger than Teddy. Teddy has become a bit conservative. But all in all these are minor differences really. The fact is now the difference is really between gut feel and hope.

Guys firstly I agree that the movement in the Jul bulletin wa way beyond all expectations. However irrespective of whether the cases were actually approved or not due to sheer volume and NSC lagging behind TSC they are omitted from the August demand data. So DOS believes that USCIS will close them.

Now for the last month as Leo puts it the allocation ~ for EB2 ROW + EB1 maybe 5K, we may get a maximum of 2-3K out of that, I think EB5 was mainly burnt out in Jul, I won't be surprised if EB5 gave significantly less SOFAD this year.

Now coming to last year Jul-Aug-Sep was 7-6.5-5 so it was a gradual fall. This year it has been 11-2.5-TBD. This seriously weakens the chances of anything great happening in September. Also in terms of SOFAD we are around 30k which is already higher than last year even without the FB spillover. Now on Trackitt the EB2 ROW approvals are coming quite consistently I don't see very many EB1's though, but the inventory of Eb1 and Eb2 ROW is at an unprecedented level, as Spec advised these are just waiting for 485 approvals I think there will be huge pressure to approve these. With regards the point of keeping some SOFAD for those current I think when the dates have been moved forward there is almost like a 1-1 mapping of those who were current because the demand data was reduced almost matching he inventory.

We all had different calculations for SOFAD in my calculation I feel that only 2-3K is left so I am a bit conservative about te Sep bulletin.

Leo good luck I still have some hopes in my heart (mind disagrees completely) that we may just make it but it requires some wonder else its next year.

[Monica12]

can anyone try checking the status of their case on USCIS website? I keep getting the below error:

Validation Error(s)
You must correct the following error(s) before proceeding:
Login failed. Your User ID and/or Password are invalid.
Multiple duplicate SRs already exist for the customer

i know that there is nothing wrong with user id or password. why is the status website showing information about duplicate sr's ?

Angryclubs, my User ID and password is working fine. Did you open any SR's recently?

[TeddyKoochu]

On the # of trackitt EB2I approvals for the month of July, we are almost in the middle of the month and have about 103 approvals so far. For the months of May and June there were 162 and 259 approvals respectively. In addition, we also need to consider the fact the PD movement was much more in July than it was in May or even June. We know that there were very few approvals in the 1st week of July but I think the approvals have picked up since then. So, if this rate of approval continues in trackitt for the month of July, we will fall short of the # of approvals we saw in June. Does this indicate that there will be non-negligible number of cases that are not going to be approved even though they are current?


pch,

It has been noted by, (TK) I think, that the % of Trackitt cases is starting to vary for the period made Current per VB. i.e 100 Trackitt approvals represent a different number of "real" approvals in different months. This means that using the overall average % for last year may understate approvals.

In the FACTS & DATA section, I have already added a couple of extra columns to EB2-I (with explanations) to try to address this issue, but I don't know how successfully.

It might be worth checking out.
When I had checked Trackitt last time for those current in July the number of cases in Trackitt was half of those current in last July. This Jul 11K are current v/s 7K last Jul. This would roughly indicate that every approval is worth 3 times than last year, however what happens in reality is that a very large segment of people actually put their case only after approval, so this years Jul approvals will rise. On the bright side the demand data decrease of 11k kind of shows that every Jul 2011 case current will likely see an approval.

[Stemcell]

Spec thanks for all the details, you always provide the best information. Its a really scary situation of all these cases have an approved I140 and are just awaiting I485 adjudication. I believe 95% or even 98% of them will materialize and this is very scary for the coming years SOFAD. I think in the next inventory it will be very prudent to see the number of I485's for EB1 and EB2 ROW.



I believe that Aug and Sep will be a 30-40% of these cases being approved but when the next inventory comes out we may not see any changes. Such a large backlog of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases could diminish next year’s SOFAD to a level of ~ 20-22K. In that case assuming extra intake is done in a timely manner your case may become borderline, this however is a worst case scenario. In normal scenario or a good one you will definitely be covered to be able to file for 485 if not GC. Your chances of getting GC by Sep 2012 are definitely higher than 80%.


Teddy, Q, Spec,Veni and others.
Thank you all for taking the time and answering individual questions. You all are really amazing !

[Monica12]

Guys firstly I agree that the movement in the Jul bulletin wa way beyond all expectations. However irrespective of whether the cases were actually approved or not due to sheer volume and NSC lagging behind TSC they are omitted from the August demand data. So DOS believes that USCIS will close them.

Now for the last month as Leo puts it the allocation ~ for EB2 ROW + EB1 maybe 5K, we may get a maximum of 2-3K out of that, I think EB5 was mainly burnt out in Jul, I won't be surprised if EB5 gave significantly less SOFAD this year.

Now coming to last year Jul-Aug-Sep was 7-6.5-5 so it was a gradual fall. This year it has been 11-2.5-TBD. This seriously weakens the chances of anything great happening in September. Also in terms of SOFAD we are around 30k which is already higher than last year even without the FB spillover. Now on Trackitt the EB2 ROW approvals are coming quite consistently I don't see very many EB1's though, but the inventory of Eb1 and Eb2 ROW is at an unprecedented level, as Spec advised these are just waiting for 485 approvals I think there will be huge pressure to approve these. With regards the point of keeping some SOFAD for those current I think when the dates have been moved forward there is almost like a 1-1 mapping of those who were current because the demand data was reduced almost matching he inventory.

We all had different calculations for SOFAD in my calculation I feel that only 2-3K is left so I am a bit conservative about te Sep bulletin.

Leo good luck I still have some hopes in my heart (mind disagrees completely) that we may just make it but it requires some wonder else its next year.

Great explaination Teddy, I too have a feeling that only 2-3 K might be left. Also, usually in Sep the dates move less than previous months.
BTW, great analysis Teddy, Q , Spec and others! KUDOS !!!!
So, according to the worst case scenerio, dates might move only till May 1, 2007 in Sep, that would be a 2 week movement. What are the chances of the dates moving less than 2 weeks/no movement in September?

[gcwait2007]

can anyone try checking the status of their case on USCIS website? I keep getting the below error:

Validation Error(s)
You must correct the following error(s) before proceeding:
Login failed. Your User ID and/or Password are invalid.
Multiple duplicate SRs already exist for the customer

i know that there is nothing wrong with user id or password. why is the status website showing information about duplicate sr's ?

Did you create multiple SRs?

[leo07]

Thanks T,S & Q: I see your points.
This is interesting, they are almost identical in terms of numbers flow w.r.t August 2010.
2010...7 & 6.5 & 5:
2011...11 & 2.5 & x:

25 days to go:)


Guys firstly I agree that the movement in the Jul bulletin wa way beyond all expectations. However irrespective of whether the cases were actually approved or not due to sheer volume and NSC lagging behind TSC they are omitted from the August demand data. So DOS believes that USCIS will close them.

Now for the last month as Leo puts it the allocation ~ for EB2 ROW + EB1 maybe 5K, we may get a maximum of 2-3K out of that, I think EB5 was mainly burnt out in Jul, I won't be surprised if EB5 gave significantly less SOFAD this year.

Now coming to last year Jul-Aug-Sep was 7-6.5-5 so it was a gradual fall. This year it has been 11-2.5-TBD. This seriously weakens the chances of anything great happening in September. Also in terms of SOFAD we are around 30k which is already higher than last year even without the FB spillover. Now on Trackitt the EB2 ROW approvals are coming quite consistently I don't see very many EB1's though, but the inventory of Eb1 and Eb2 ROW is at an unprecedented level, as Spec advised these are just waiting for 485 approvals I think there will be huge pressure to approve these. With regards the point of keeping some SOFAD for those current I think when the dates have been moved forward there is almost like a 1-1 mapping of those who were current because the demand data was reduced almost matching he inventory.

We all had different calculations for SOFAD in my calculation I feel that only 2-3K is left so I am a bit conservative about te Sep bulletin.

Leo good luck I still have some hopes in my heart (mind disagrees completely) that we may just make it but it requires some wonder else its next year.

[indiasunil]

Thanks TeddyK & Spec...
Thanks T,S & Q: I see your points.
This is interesting, they are almost identical in terms of numbers flow w.r.t August 2010.
2010...7 & 6.5 & 5:
2011...11 & 2.5 & x:

w.r.t Aug. 2010.. So the dates will move another 6 months ?? that means we can expect dates somewhere in March 2008.

Thanks.

[tanu_75]

Thanks T,S & Q: I see your points.
This is interesting, they are almost identical in terms of numbers flow w.r.t August 2010.
2010...7 & 6.5 & 5:
2011...11 & 2.5 & x:

25 days to go:)

Nice pick Leo. Maybe its internal policy perhaps to keep 5k then for the last month?? We'll know soon I guess.

[angryclubs]

I spoke with Level 2 io yesterday. He opened an SR without asking me. That's about it. What I really do not get is what does an SR have anything to do with getting logon denied for checking the status of a case.
Q, I know this is a thread for predictions/calculations. If you think my posts are taking the focus away please feel free to delete them.

[Monica12]

I spoke with Level 2 io yesterday. He opened an SR without asking me. That's about it. What I really do not get is what does an SR have anything to do with getting logon denied for checking the status of a case.
Q, I know this is a thread for predictions/calculations. If you think my posts are taking the focus away please feel free to delete them.

Yes, I agree. An SR shouldn't prevent you from logging in. I too had opened an SR last week but don't have a problem logging in. Maybe if you check tomorrow again, it should be fine ?

[qesehmk]

You are good. No worries. Right now we are small enough and tightly knit that it makes more sense to discuss everything under one thread. We can always pull relevant posts and create special threads so that offline readers can read only.

p.s. - I just love your Avatar!


I spoke with Level 2 io yesterday. He opened an SR without asking me. That's about it. What I really do not get is what does an SR have anything to do with getting logon denied for checking the status of a case.
Q, I know this is a thread for predictions/calculations. If you think my posts are taking the focus away please feel free to delete them.

[sandeep11]

Friends you all are doing a great job by maintaining the sanctitiy of this forum.

Q, Spec, Teddy and all other contributors thanks for your time a patience. Believe me this forum turned out to be a kind of addiction for me for the last few days. I inadvertantly go into the forum and check if there are any positive updates almost every hour or so.

We all are waiting for our turn to be greened and the wait is frustrating for few. It is the same with me too (PD 11/2007). Infact this frustration is so bad to few that I have personally seen two of my collegues disappointed and leave office the day VB was released.

You guys keep up the good work and good luck to you all.

[qesehmk]

Sandeep, glad you found and liked this forum. Felt sad about your colleagues' frustration. There are so many others who are also frustrated. Clarity about GC process and backlogs will reduce the frustration to a good degree. But I think (and I dont claim to have mastered this) the real way to keep frustration out is to keep doing things that you really are passionate about. Not having GC certainly creates some significant barriers. But if one at least keeps working on things that are under one's control, the frustration wouldn't be as consuming.



Friends you all are doing a great job by maintaining the sanctitiy of this forum.

Q, Spec, Teddy and all other contributors thanks for your time a patience. Believe me this forum turned out to be a kind of addiction for me for the last few days. I inadvertantly go into the forum and check if there are any positive updates almost every hour or so.

We all are waiting for our turn to be greened and the wait is frustrating for few. It is the same with me too (PD 11/2007). Infact this frustration is so bad to few that I have personally seen two of my collegues disappointed and leave office the day VB was released.

You guys keep up the good work and good luck to you all.

[03May07]

25 days to go:)

Leo, you are starting it again..:) / (5 members and 46 guests as of now.-rest of the 300 will be returning soon.../ sleepless nights to nishant will return again..../

I thought I was good at Math and calculations...somehow dont understand the number crunching that everyone is doing...helpless to the forum..Thanks to everyone who is involved in calculations...keep it going.

BTW, I'm making note of everyone who is predicting 01-May 07 ;)

[Monica12]

Leo, you are starting it again..:) / (5 members and 46 guests as of now.-rest of the 300 will be returning soon.../ sleepless nights to nishant will return again..../

I thought I was good at Math and calculations...somehow dont understand the number crunching that everyone is doing...helpless to the forum..Thanks to everyone who is involved in calculations...keep it going.

BTW, I'm making note of everyone who is predicting 01-May 07 ;)

Ha.. sorry, I might have been one of those who mentioned that date. Guilty !!!
I was very optmistic about the Aug VB and had my hopes dashed, so was trying to play it down this time.I sincerely hope, it moves a couple of months atleast in Sep and we all get greened soon :)
25 days to go....

[nishant2200]

Leo, you are starting it again..:) / (5 members and 46 guests as of now.-rest of the 300 will be returning soon.../ sleepless nights to nishant will return again..../

I thought I was good at Math and calculations...somehow dont understand the number crunching that everyone is doing...helpless to the forum..Thanks to everyone who is involved in calculations...keep it going.

BTW, I'm making note of everyone who is predicting 01-May 07 ;)

:) I am already eternally here, refreshing every few so often. My own mind internally I was saying, countdown begins, until the next 10th of August. As the D-day comes, my sleeplessness will rise exponentially.

Man proposes, God disposes. However much we may calculate and analyse, CO has the power to dispose all of us in one shot!

[Monica12]

:) I am already eternally here, refreshing every few so often. My own mind internally I was saying, countdown begins, until the next 10th of August. As the D-day comes, my sleeplessness will rise exponentially.

Man proposes, God disposes. However much we may calculate and analyse, CO has the power to dispose all of us in one shot!

So true Nishant, I feel the same way !
May the force aka CO be with us :) :)

[sandeep11]

Q, you are right.

[qesehmk]

3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...

rest of the 300 will be returning soon.../ sleepless nights to nishant will return again..../
.....
BTW, I'm making note of everyone who is predicting 01-May 07 ;)


Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html)
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html)

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

[Monica12]

3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...



Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html)
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html)

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

Yipeee..... finally some good news.
Q, thanks for the update !
PS: Looks like I will have to learn to decipher Chinese after all !!! :)

[ssvp22]

Yipeee..... finally some good news.
Q, thanks for the update !
PS: Looks like I will have to learn to decipher Chinese after all !!! :)
Love the words "BBS Unnamed Space Station". Reminds me of radio days.

[28thJune2007]

3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...



Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html)
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html)

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

Q
That's a good new. ...I want to ask one question though. If 5k is left for EB2 than should we not add to this number meaning we should have 5k +1K+2k = 8K fpr September VB

[nayekal]

Friends you all are doing a great job by maintaining the sanctitiy of this forum.

Q, Spec, Teddy and all other contributors thanks for your time a patience. Believe me this forum turned out to be a kind of addiction for me for the last few days. I inadvertantly go into the forum and check if there are any positive updates almost every hour or so.

We all are waiting for our turn to be greened and the wait is frustrating for few. It is the same with me too (PD 11/2007). Infact this frustration is so bad to few that I have personally seen two of my collegues disappointed and leave office the day VB was released.

You guys keep up the good work and good luck to you all.

Man..are you one of colleague..just kidding.
I left my office early with out telling any one...

[pch053]

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.
Q,
Won't another 5K of spillovers move the EB2-I/C dates to end of June or even 1st week of July. The # of pending visas for EB2-I for after 15th April to end of June (assuming 50% of April pending numbers are after 15th April) is 3047 and the same for EB2-C is 1370. So, overall pending EB2-I/C #'s from mid-April to end of June is 4417 and another 5K spillovers (if available) might push dates into 1st week of July.

[qesehmk]

The entire 5K available to EB2 will not go to EB2IC. However including FD from EB1 and EB5 the SOFAD should easily be 5K.


Q
That's a good new. ...I want to ask one question though. If 5k is left for EB2 than should we not add to this number meaning we should have 5k +1K+2k = 8K fpr September VB

[qesehmk]

Or even further if its more than 5K....
Yep ... absolutely agree.
So Aug bulletin is not that bad afterall!

Q,
Won't another 5K of spillovers move the EB2-I/C dates to end of June or even 1st week of July. The # of pending visas for EB2-I for after 15th April to end of June (assuming 50% of April pending numbers are after 15th April) is 3047 and the same for EB2-C is 1370. So, overall pending EB2-I/C #'s from mid-April to end of June is 4417 and another 5K spillovers (if available) might push dates into 1st week of July.

[Feb2008]

I think you should use more appropriate language in your post #3958 on page 159. we are all foreigners and should respect each other.

[hoping4thebest]

To put things in perspective, the chinese (especially EB3) have been pissed off for a while that EB india takes away most of the spillover (ratio of 3:1 or 5:1 or 6:1 depending on which analysis you look at). Their main focus of all their analysis is to add to their constant campaign to push DoS/USCIS not to allott spillover numbers based on PD. But then I wonder what else could visa numbers be based on.
Anyway, I have followed that forum for a while and their attitude towards EB-India is belligerent at best. Their goal is for EB-India to NOT receive ANY spillover visas until EB-China backlog is eliminated. The same was one of the points in their failed lawsuit. And I of course find that idea ridiculous.



Yipeee..... finally some good news.
Q, thanks for the update !
PS: Looks like I will have to learn to decipher Chinese after all !!! :)

[Monica12]

Guys, Please let's not start any kind of war here. We are all going through this painful process together and should help each other in any way we can...
We will benefit if we work together on this and will not gain anything by attacking each other.
Your co-operation is highly appreciated.
PEACE !!!!!! :) :) :)

[pravara]

Guys,

What does this mean? Does it mean my case has been approved?

Card/ Document Production

"On July 14, 2011, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283."

[soggadu]

3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...



Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html)
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html)

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

Damn... So hopes going high again? Also these 121k used visas are excluding aug month right...

As some one said, hope is a tough weed, the more I try to keep it underwraps... The more it grows up....

[vishNov07]

I think you should use more appropriate language in your post #3958 on page 159. we are all foreigners and should respect each other.

Feb2008, the post you mentioned does not have anything offensive about it or at least I'm pretty sure it was not meant to be be offensive to anybody. Its a common phrase which you may have interpreted out of context.

[veni001]

Guys,

I have been looking a little more at this.

Here's a more detailed breakdown (correcting a small error I found).

- Inv Date ---- Total ---- EB2 ----- EB1

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,918 --- 5,950 --- 2,968
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964 --- 3,657 --- 2,307
27 May 2010 -- 14,138 --- 6,763 --- 7,375
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510 --- 9,915 --- 7,595
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388 --- 8,935 --- 8,453
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130 -- 10,142 --- 9,988

The Kazarian case was heard in March 2010, so the rise in numbers is post Kazarian.

Is it possible that the rise in pending EB2 cases represent NIW (which generally are also Exceptional Ability cases)?

It does seem possible that a final decision might have been postponed until the adjudicators received training on adjudicating EB1 and EB2-NIW after the decision.

Subsequent processing times seem to have increased substantially, which would also raise the figures.

I have never found any statistics as to what % of total EB2 approvals that NIW represent. I don't think that Trackitt necessarily provides reliable figures, but it suggests around 10% for ROW (excl. M-P).

Post Kazarian, NIW should also become more difficult and perhaps less people will therefore apply or get approved, just like EB1A and EB1B.

Just talking out loud to add to the discussion.




Teddy I agree with you.

If the VO are purely moving by the numbers and give the same amount in September as August, the CUD might scrape to 01JUN07. The absolute best I can see is 22JUN07, but that would require more visas in September than August, which would be unusual.

The trend for total numbers of pending cases for EB1 and EB2-ROW-M-P in successive USCIS Inventories tells a chilling tale.

11 Dec 2009 --- 8,934
08 Mar 2010 --- 5,964
27 May 2010 -- 14,138
01 Oct 2010 -- 17,510
05 Jan 2011 -- 17,388
-- Jun 2011 -- 20,130

Bear in mind that, according to the Ombudsman's response document last year, an I-485 where the Category/Country is Current is not shown in the Inventory unless the underlying I-140 has already been adjudicated, so these cases are merely awaiting adjudication of the I-485 itself.

Spec,
That may be true for the monthly demand data used for VB cutt-off dates.
Looking at i140 receipts(EB1/EB2-NIW) data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI) is telling me it is not the case for i485 inventory.

[leo07]

it means you can thank your Pravara men loudly :) ( in your office if you wish)

Good Luck!

Guys,

What does this mean? Does it mean my case has been approved?

Card/ Document Production

"On July 14, 2011, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service at 1-800-375-5283."

[qblogfan]

All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.



To put things in perspective, the chinese (especially EB3) have been pissed off for a while that EB india takes away most of the spillover (ratio of 3:1 or 5:1 or 6:1 depending on which analysis you look at). Their main focus of all their analysis is to add to their constant campaign to push DoS/USCIS not to allott spillover numbers based on PD. But then I wonder what else could visa numbers be based on.
Anyway, I have followed that forum for a while and their attitude towards EB-India is belligerent at best. Their goal is for EB-India to NOT receive ANY spillover visas until EB-China backlog is eliminated. The same was one of the points in their failed lawsuit. And I of course find that idea ridiculous.

[leo07]

Good one. I agree.

btw, I could not help notice on their website they refer it EB2CI:) It's only natural instinct, I guess, for all humans/animals alike.

All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.

[leo07]

I thought the 19k referred from FOIA might be of April 30th?


3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...



Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html)
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html)

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

[qesehmk]

They say they expect 19K to be distributed in Sep.
19K is a good number even otherwise.
140/12 = ~12K.

Indicating 12K would be normal monthly allocation. So why 19K left. May be that's 7K SOFAD rather than 5K!!! ;)




I thought the 19k referred from FOIA might be of April 30th?

[Monica12]

All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.

Qblogfan, well said !!!!
I sincerely hope you are not leaving us :)

[Spectator]

All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.qblogfan,

I too hope you will not be abandoning us. I like your contributions and personally value the different perspective you bring to the discussion.

I am sure no offence was intended.

On a lighter note - Google Translate or any other similar service are absolutely crap (if you'll excuse my French) at translating Chinese into plain English!

[28thJune2007]

They say they expect 19K to be distributed in Sep.
19K is a good number even otherwise.
140/12 = ~12K.

Indicating 12K would be normal monthly allocation. So why 19K left. May be that's 7K SOFAD rather than 5K!!! ;)

Guys

I tried using google translation to make sense of the mitbbs post. It mentioned something about extra CIS. Could anyone do correct translation (Maybe qblogfan can help us)......Thanks in advance

[Spectator]

I thought the 19k referred from FOIA might be of April 30th?Leo,

At the moment, that is what concerns me as well. The Google Translation says:


Sender: NIUNATIONAL (NIU), the letter area: EB23
Title: NIU government relations group to obtain the approval letter stand progress data: BBS Unnamed Space Station (Thu Jul 14 11:47:42 2011, U.S. East)

Government Relations Group ERIC JI through FOIA channels have access to employment-based immigration approval of FY 2011 data, in the first half ended April 30, approved a total payment of employment-based immigration quota of 52,475 a green card. Oppenheimer also public relations group of volunteers and the communication, as yesterday informed career has approved a quota of 121,000 green cards.
NIU volunteers will be on data and analysis obtained from the first half of 2011 FOIA monthly approval data for further analysis, looking forward to their follow-up discussion and analysis

That is a bit ambiguous. It can be taken to mean 121k as of 13 July, 2011 or it could be the figure as at the end of July.

Since 14 July, 2011 post dates the August VB date of July 11, 2011, it is also possible that it includes visas allocated to August, but not actually used yet, since USCIS have not made the final approval.

Without more explanation, I can't decide what the figures mean.

Subsequent discussion in the thread seems to confirm equal confusion and I did not see a definitive answer. There were plenty of posts where they were discussing 19-20k over 2 months - in fact that seemed the general consensus.

The second thread seems to start with the presumption that the full 19k are available in September, but that seems to be an assumption, rather than fact.

[Allenone]

Guys

I tried using google translation to make sense of the mitbbs post. It mentioned something about extra CIS. Could anyone do correct translation (Maybe qblogfan can help us)......Thanks in advance

Not too much info beyond the first post. I only half believe it on the claim that it is from a personal phone call with co.
CIS is USCIS, I believe.

[nishant2200]

Leo,

At the moment, that is what concerns me as well. The Google Translation says:



That is a bit ambiguous. It can be taken to mean 121k as of 13 July, 2011 or it could be the figure as at the end of July.

Since 14 July, 2011 post dates the August VB date of July 11, 2011, it is also possible that it includes visas allocated to August, but not actually used yet, since USCIS have not made the final approval.

Without more explanation, I can't decide what the figures mean.

Subsequent discussion in the thread seems to confirm equal confusion and I did not see a definitive answer. There were plenty of posts where they were discussing 19-20k over 2 months - in fact that seemed the general consensus.

The second thread seems to start with the presumption that the full 19k are available in September, but that seems to be an assumption, rather than fact.

Spec, I am on vacation on friday. On Monday, I will try to enlist help of a Chinese co-worker in company to translate this. Meanwhile, if any of you guys have a Chinese co-worker, just get help from them.

[myfr66]

3M you are really funny!! You cracked me big with these two ...



Anyway .... listen guys here is some interesting information to support decent september movement.

The chinese it seems have pretty credible sources .... so thanks to them all. Take a look at these two pages.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31370131.html)
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31369099.html)

Basically they are saying that 19K or so is left over for the entire EB category. It implies 5K is left for EB1, EB3, EB2 each and 3-4K for EB4. So if conservatively if you take 1K from EB5, 2K from EB1 and 2K from EB2... there is your 5K for Sept bulletin which is equivalent to more than 6 weeks of movement!!

The info looks credible and thanks again to our friends on the other side of the hill.

The first link says the following:

"19k could be for September. please get excited. he (inside connection in "0" aka USCIS office? ) says that in recent months, every month USCIS approves a few k more. Now we need to see how much is approved for July and August. The rest is for September.

The key data in the second link are:

"52,475 GC has been allocated by April 30th (CP not included)
121,000 EB GC is approved by July 13th"

BTW, wanted to say Hi to all. I have just registered today. It is a great forum.

[myfr66]

The first link says the following:

"19k could be for September. please get excited. he (inside connection in "0" aka USCIS office? ) says that in recent months, every month USCIS approves a few k more. Now we need to see how much is approved for July and August. The rest is for September.

The key data in the second link are:

"52,475 GC has been allocated by April 30th (CP not included)
121,000 EB GC is approved by July 13th"

BTW, wanted to say Hi to all. I have just registered today. It is a great forum.

Actually the author mentioned that there is no end date associated with 121,000 number

[qesehmk]

myfr66 appreciate your help. Welcome to the forum!

Somebody said to me that 121K is through August. That's why I mentioned 19K for september. 121K through august is believable because first half only allocated 52K. (although first half ended on Mar 31st rather than Apr 30th!!). At 52K for 6 months, 78K would be consumed in 9 months leaving 62K for Q3. If you take a third in each month then that gives you approx 20K. So 19K for September is in my opinion more logical.

The reason why USCIS probably slowed down movement in August is probably to ensure that PWMBs don't file now. Probably USCIS wants to defer those case to 2012. Another piece of the same "THEORY" is that by making a small movement in August and having large visas available, they can justify a huge movement in September. But this one is just a theory. I have nothing to back it up.



The first link says the following:

"19k could be for September. please get excited. he (inside connection in "0" aka USCIS office? ) says that in recent months, every month USCIS approves a few k more. Now we need to see how much is approved for July and August. The rest is for September.

The key data in the second link are:

"52,475 GC has been allocated by April 30th (CP not included)
121,000 EB GC is approved by July 13th"

BTW, wanted to say Hi to all. I have just registered today. It is a great forum.


Actually the author mentioned that there is no end date associated with 121,000 number

[Spectator]

The problem is the ambiguity of the statements. Without input from the person who actually talked to CO, It is probably unresolvable.

Having slept on it, I think the more conservative interpretation is more likely.

There is ambiguity even about the 52,475. In one breath it says the first half of the year, but then say it is to 30 April, which is 7 months.

A low amount is not inconsistent. In that period, EB1 had low demand and no spillover had been allocated. Since then, to the end of July, a large amount of spillover has been released, so a big acceleration might be expected.

After 10 months, we would expect a figure of 122k [((9 * 9) + (19 / 3))% * 140], so 121k is about the correct figure to the end of July.

19k for 2 months is potentially not a huge amount to cover the EB1-EB5 normal run rate, so it would explain the relatively low amount of spillover released in the August VB. We have already surmised that 2.6k has been released for spillover in the August VB, so that leaves 16.4k to cover that normal run rate in August/September and any additional spillover in September.

Any final amount can be released after observing actual demand.

I don't think it alters the numbers we were talking about before the news.

I think it is something we will not get unanimous agreement upon and only the September VB can resolve it.

Until then, I will refrain from further comment on these figures.

[veni001]

Spec thanks for all the details, you always provide the best information. Its a really scary situation of all these cases have an approved I140 and are just awaiting I485 adjudication. I believe 95% or even 98% of them will materialize and this is very scary for the coming years SOFAD. I think in the next inventory it will be very prudent to see the number of I485's for EB1 and EB2 ROW.



I believe that Aug and Sep will be a 30-40% of these cases being approved but when the next inventory comes out we may not see any changes. Such a large backlog of EB1 and EB2 ROW cases could diminish next year’s SOFAD to a level of ~ 20-22K. In that case assuming extra intake is done in a timely manner your case may become borderline, this however is a worst case scenario. In normal scenario or a good one you will definitely be covered to be able to file for 485 if not GC. Your chances of getting GC by Sep 2012 are definitely higher than 80%.

Teddy,
I140 receipts data does not support that, please see my response to Spec's post.

[TeddyKoochu]

All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.

These are some great thoughts, I believe we should have empathy and support all those who are in the legal immigration queue, waiting and waiting irrespective of which country or category we may belong to.

[kpt112107]

So, Will it move till End of 2007 in Sep Bulletin?


myfr66 appreciate your help. Welcome to the forum!

Somebody said to me that 121K is through August. That's why I mentioned 19K for september. 121K through august is believable because first half only allocated 52K. (although first half ended on Mar 31st rather than Apr 30th!!). At 52K for 6 months, 78K would be consumed in 9 months leaving 62K for Q3. If you take a third in each month then that gives you approx 20K. So 19K for September is in my opinion more logical.

The reason why USCIS probably slowed down movement in August is probably to ensure that PWMBs don't file now. Probably USCIS wants to defer those case to 2012. Another piece of the same "THEORY" is that by making a small movement in August and having large visas available, they can justify a huge movement in September. But this one is just a theory. I have nothing to back it up.

[kpt112107]

Q!!
So, Will it move till End of 2007 in Sep Bulletin?

[grnwtg]

Q!!
So, Will it move till End of 2007 in Sep Bulletin?

Everybody's hopes are are raising again. We need little of this after disappointed last week. After seeing all the calculation i personally feel that it really difficult to predict as there are many assumptions.
example: 2 months ago i thought 3-4 of my friends where telling that they already started porting process, but now some how they are asking me if there are chances of eb3I becoming current. Similary EB1 is in the same stage as they are not accepting everybody and we are not certain if investment visas spill over will be 5k or 8k ( huge difference now as July has over 3k pending).

Out of all these Odds, one should appreciate Q, Veni,Spec, Teddy( and also qblogfan for bringing some news from our counterparts) for calculating almost right numbers. Let us hope there me atleast 3k to 5k number spill overs.

[kabhishek]

I request all immigrant community to sign this petition and ask all your friends and family members to sign and send emails to congress and President.
Link to the petition: http://www.petition2congress.com/4771/retain-high-skilled-legal-immigrants-in-usa/

Thank you

[grnwtg]

All of us came here to look for a better life. Both Indian and Chinese folks have the same goal. We want to have GC to travel freely and change job easily. There is not much difference between an Indian and a Chinese immigrant.

I wish all of our Indian and Chinese folks can get GC as soon as possible. I feel sad when I read some posts that EB2/EB3 applicants can not see their families because of the GC issue. It's inhumane. We have missed too many opportunities to have reunions with our families back home.

No matter you are an Indian guy or a Chinese guy, I wish you get your GC and spend more time with parents back home. That's my final and best wish to all our friends here.

Its disheartining to listen when one says i am in virtual Jail ( My parents visa got rejected twice with out any reason couple of months back). I sincerely wish dates move to atleast 2009 and people get chance to file their I-485 and get chance to go to India/China.

[qesehmk]

I dont know my friend. Based on August Bulletin I would;ve said no. Based on the new information about what's used and left I feel decently optimistic.

In terms of SFM (sustainable forward movement) - Dec 2007 is just not possible. In terms of BTM yes its possible. But I can't say with any confidence how much BTM if any at all will DoS undertake and when.


So, Will it move till End of 2007 in Sep Bulletin?

[TeddyKoochu]

Q - I believe that if the 19K is indeed available for September then at minimum EB2 I/C will receive 5K of SOFAD, it maybe even as high as 8K. Iam slightly more inclined towards Spec's guidance with my mind, but with my heart I would like to completely believe yours.

Spec - Let’s assume 52,475 is for 7 months as indicated by Apr 30th, logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin. There is definitely huge confusion where those 19K stand if they are September only then it’s great news (There are more postings supporting this version) but all calculations do correlate with the fact that they are probably Aug + Sep.

Veni - Noted your response on the EB1 and EB2 ROW numbers they are at an unprecedented level any interpretation around them could be very significant.
Friends to summarize only the September bulletin itself or additional information on mittbs can help clear this puzzle.

[ssvp22]

Even otherwise, i dont see INS leaving 19k cases to be approved in last month. This is not like a sales target they need to achieve to get bonus. There is almost 0% incentive for them to slog in the last month.

[qesehmk]

Teddy

As you know I always like to triangulate to a conclusion from multiple dimensions. So here is one more perspective.

If we use 52K consumption for 6 months, it is more conservative than 7 months. So lets use 6 months. So what is 52K? It is teh normal run rate without SO. All of us know that for first 8 months at least there was no SO. So the full year normal rate would be 104.

At 140K quota, thats 36K net SOFAD since EB2IC 5.6K is baked into normal run rate. So the total SOFAD should be 41.6K. So far 29K SOFAD is applied through Apr 15th 2007. This includes August bulletin. So it leaves 12.6K SOFAD available over and above normal run rate for September (9K approx). So the total left for September should be 12.6K+ 9K = 21.6K.

So even if we assume its 19K, the september SOFAD comes to 10K. Even if you are extremely conservative and allocate 5K to eliminate additional EB1 and EB2ROW backlog, that still leaves 5K for EB2IC. That's the reason I am now very comfortable with 1 July (yes July) 2007 and in fact there could be even more upside to July. We will see.



Q - I believe that if the 19K is indeed available for September then at minimum EB2 I/C will receive 5K of SOFAD, it maybe even as high as 8K. Iam slightly more inclined towards Spec's guidance with my mind, but with my heart I would like to completely believe yours.

Spec - Let’s assume 52,475 is for 7 months as indicated by Apr 30th, logically by this time 81K out of 140K cases should have been approved. This indicated ~19K SOFAD by that time, now extrapolating that SOFAD over 12 months actually yields ~ 33K. With that said I feel there maybe only 3K more to apply for the Sep bulletin. There is definitely huge confusion where those 19K stand if they are September only then it’s great news (There are more postings supporting this version) but all calculations do correlate with the fact that they are probably Aug + Sep.

Veni - Noted your response on the EB1 and EB2 ROW numbers they are at an unprecedented level any interpretation around them could be very significant.
Friends to summarize only the September bulletin itself or additional information on mittbs can help clear this puzzle.

[bieber]

qblogfan

I hope you didnot mean that was your last post here.

It's very fair if chinese friends think they are losing because of huge demand from India, that's true. Eventhough their demand is slightly over the annual quota, they have to be pegged with India numbers to see any further movement. I think for 2009/2010 and later PD Chinese have better chances to file 485 than Indian counterparts.

[soggadu]

Teddy

As you know I always like to triangulate to a conclusion from multiple dimensions. So here is one more perspective.

If we use 52K consumption for 6 months, it is more conservative than 7 months. So lets use 6 months. So what is 52K? It is teh normal run rate without SO. All of us know that for first 8 months at least there was no SO. So the full year normal rate would be 104.

At 140K quota, thats 36K net SOFAD since EB2IC 5.6K is baked into normal run rate. So the total SOFAD should be 41.6K. So far 29K SOFAD is applied through Apr 15th 2007. This includes August bulletin. So it leaves 12.6K SOFAD available over and above normal run rate for September (9K approx). So the total left for September should be 12.6K+ 9K = 21.6K.

So even if we assume its 19K, the september SOFAD comes to 10K. Even if you are extremely conservative and allocate 5K to eliminate additional EB1 and EB2ROW backlog, that still leaves 5K for EB2IC. That's the reason I am now very comfortable with 1 July (yes July) 2007 and in fact there could be even more upside to July. We will see.

AMEN to "there could be even more upside to July"

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

As you know I always like to triangulate to a conclusion from multiple dimensions. So here is one more perspective.

If we use 52K consumption for 6 months, it is more conservative than 7 months. So lets use 6 months. So what is 52K? It is teh normal run rate without SO. All of us know that for first 8 months at least there was no SO. So the full year normal rate would be 104.

At 140K quota, thats 36K net SOFAD since EB2IC 5.6K is baked into normal run rate. So the total SOFAD should be 41.6K. So far 29K SOFAD is applied through Apr 15th 2007. This includes August bulletin. So it leaves 12.6K SOFAD available over and above normal run rate for September (9K approx). So the total left for September should be 12.6K+ 9K = 21.6K.

So even if we assume its 19K, the september SOFAD comes to 10K. Even if you are extremely conservative and allocate 5K to eliminate additional EB1 and EB2ROW backlog, that still leaves 5K for EB2IC. That's the reason I am now very comfortable with 1 July (yes July) 2007 and in fact there could be even more upside to July. We will see.

Q I very sincerely hope that this model that you project is the correct one I agree with you that the 52K applied to 6 months or 7 months can yield different results. I have a question about CP, traditionally the consulates return their results in the last few months typically before the last VB so could it be that the CP approvals are not added, and this could deduct a good number out of the 19K.

[qesehmk]

52K was the number of all visas issued by DoS. So if CP is going to return some then that actually will be upside.




Q I very sincerely hope that this model that you project is the correct one I agree with you that the 52K applied to 6 months or 7 months can yield different results. I have a question about CP, traditionally the consulates return their results in the last few months typically before the last VB so could it be that the CP approvals are not added, and this could deduct a good number out of the 19K.

[kolugc]

Not sure if somebody had posted this here before, did check couple of last pages and did not find it and so posting this here.

I felt its a good read and reflects whats discussed here...

EB2 India & China - What to expect in FY 2012?
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/07/eb2-india-china-what-to-expect-in-fy.html

I hope posting a link here is fine... If not please remove my post.

[ct06511]

From MITBBS:

(Translation) Regarding the number of 121000, I asked a few times. He (Mr. O) was clear that it covers the published August number (VB?). I asked twice whether 19000 is for September. He was not willing to answer directly.

发信人: cnus (会飞的猪), 信区: EB23
标 题: Re: 公布２０１１年前７个月审批数据具体情况
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Fri Jul 15 11:35:57 2011, 美东)

这个１２１０００到哪，我问了好几次了，比较明确是COVER他已经公布的８月排期。
直接问１９０００是不是给９月的，两遍，不同角度，他就不愿意正面直接回答。


【 在 mozhu (墨猪) 的大作中提到: 】
: cnus我是菜鸟对你的计算有一个问题
: 7.13后还剩19k明额
: 这19k是要批完EB1和中国印度以外EB2后才会给EB2IC
: 也就是2个半月的EB1和中国印度以外EB2
: 根据你以下的计算(在二楼）一个月要7631用在EB1和中国印度以外EB2
: 那两个半月7631*2.5=19078. 岂不正好是19k?
: then nothing left?


【 在 seansoon (商裔) 的大作中提到: 】
: CNUS, thanks for the data.
: There is a critical question about the 19K. O said :" As of July 13th,
: there are 19k available..."
: Does this 19k include EB2 Rest of the world, EB1 and Eb5 from July 13th
to
: September 30th? Because there is no "Pai Qi" for them. Could you clarify
: this?
: If this 19k does include those, then there would not be much left for
EB2
: CI.
: Thanks

[28thJune2007]

52K was the number of all visas issued by DoS. So if CP is going to return some then that actually will be upside.


Q

Is this 52K number available somewhere on DOS/USCIS websites or solely based on MITBBS....thanks