EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[Spectator]

Spec - I think the fee requests represent the floor and not the ceiling. Fee requests indicate that they are ready to issue the visa in next few months - hence they can't send a fee request for a date too far in future. PD on the other hand, can go into future beyond the latest fee request.

Plus I don't think DoS/USCIS need too persuasive a rationale for being very aggressive in PDs. Something on the line of "Uncertainty regarding whether a significant number of PERM approvals will convert into 485 demand because of weaker economy and layoffs" will be enough I think. It is a policy decision and once they arrive at a policy it is not too difficult to find arguments to substantiate it.imdeng,

I agree that the DOS thinking can be quite loose in justifying any movement. I also think they have known what they were eventually going to do for several months.

State have a history of ensuring they look after their own (CP cases), which is why I think if there was going to be significant movement beyond mid 2008, we would have heard that NVC were taking further action on later cases.

The problem with moving beyond the CP cases is that then Demand reaches zero and all that entails.

I feel DOS have ensured there are 2008 cases in the demand to ensure that does not happen.

I might well be wrong.

[qesehmk]

Guys .... pay close attention to what Spec is saying here. That is a very astute and logical statement.



State have a history of ensuring they look after their own (CP cases), which is why I think if there was going to be significant movement beyond mid 2008, we would have heard that NVC were taking further action on later cases.
I feel DOS have ensured there are 2008 cases in the demand to ensure that does not happen.

[imdeng]

Spec - moving PD beyond CP cases does not mean a zero demand since the new PD will create a substantial 485 queue in no time. I think the fee requests have to be conservative since they do not have a waiting mechanism like EAD in CP. PD on the other hand can be aggressively increased since you can have people waiting in post-485 phase for years. Thats why my assertion that fee requests represent a floor rather than a ceiling for the future PD movement.


imdeng,
The problem with moving beyond the CP cases is that then Demand reaches zero and all that entails.

[immitrickz]

My source tells me there won't be any forward movement in this VB..I am real worried now..

[pdmay2008]

My source tells me there won't be any forward movement in this VB..I am real worried now..

Who is your source?

[qesehmk]

You better be correct on this one for your own sake. Otherwise you have just made a lot of people unhappy :(


My source tells me there won't be any forward movement in this VB..I am real worried now..

[nishant2200]

You better be correct on this one for your own sake. Otherwise you have just made a lot of people unhappy :(

I am going to stick with the calculations and analysis model, which predicts forward movement.

[iamdeb]

I guess you are referring to this article

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31336477.html

As you mentioned NVC sent CP dates is the floor and not the ceiling. How far ahead of 2008 it goes is just guesswork for now..

[immitrickz]

You better be correct on this one for your own sake. Otherwise you have just made a lot of people unhappy :(

I am just a messenger..don't shoot the messenger.. I would have to ditch my source if the info turns out false..

[ssvp22]

My source tells me there won't be any forward movement in this VB..I am real worried now..
There is no real thing to worry. At worst, everyones state remains the same and we can continue working. Only thing that VB has to offer is upside.

[Spectator]

Spec - moving PD beyond CP cases does not mean a zero demand since the new PD will create a substantial 485 queue in no time. I think the fee requests have to be conservative since they do not have a waiting mechanism like EAD in CP. PD on the other hand can be aggressively increased since you can have people waiting in post-485 phase for years. Thats why my assertion that fee requests represent a floor rather than a ceiling for the future PD movement.imdeng,

I think we will just have to agree to disagree on this point.

The Cut Off Date is established by the last case that cannot be allocated a visa.

In theory at least, if there is just one case more than the number of available visas, the Cut Off Date will become the PD of that case.

If there are more visas than there are qualified cases, then there is no Cut Off Date and the category is Current.


moving PD beyond CP cases does not mean a zero demand since the new PD will create a substantial 485 queue in no time.

The point is that it is not no time. Even for CP cases, which can be adjudicated faster than AOS cases, it does take some time.

Since there are, to our knowledge, no cases with a PD beyond about mid 2008 that might be qualified to immediately issue a visa to, any movement beyond that case would make the category Current.

[waiting]

Q - any thing from ur source beside when VB will be out?

[pdmay2008]

Nothing wrong in conveying your message. But most of us here believe in numbers and facts around the numbers.

[soggadu]

ok guys.... what do you suggest...

PD Oct 22 2007 Eb2 I...Shall i book my appointment for medicals? I know if the dates move , there will lot of people looking to get the medicals done... on the down side the medicals are eligible for certain time only...so what do you guys suggest???

[victorian]

I am just a messenger..don't shoot the messenger.. I would have to ditch my source if the info turns out false..

I am assuming that your source has been reliable so far?

[iamdeb]

Very logically put Spec.
Totally agree with your point.

[veni001]

Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.


Q - any thing from ur source beside when VB will be out?

Today/Tomorrow.

[dontcareaboutGC]

Spec- Logically and lawfully your points make sense- CIS/ DOS specially since they are answerable and we are not...but who is going to question them if they move the cutoff to Dec 2008?




imdeng,

I think we will just have to agree to disagree on this point.

The Cut Off Date is established by the last case that cannot be allocated a visa.

In theory at least, if there is just one case more than the number of available visas, the Cut Off Date will become the PD of that case.

If there are more visas than there are qualified cases, then there is no Cut Off Date and the category is Current.



The point is that it is not no time. Even for CP cases, which can be adjudicated faster than AOS cases, it does take some time.

Since there are, to our knowledge, no cases with a PD beyond about mid 2008 that might be qualified to immediately issue a visa to, any movement beyond that case would make the category Current.

[immitrickz]

I am assuming that your source has been reliable so far?

We will soon find out..

[qblogfan]

who is your source? your attorney?

did he/she provide reliable information before?

this is no joke, you have to be serious about what you say.


I am just a messenger..don't shoot the messenger.. I would have to ditch my source if the info turns out false..

[kpt112107]

Already 3 PM. No update @ http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

[qesehmk]

I am saying the same. I am just a messenger on behalf of whoever will actually shoot you down!! Hey just kidding. Actually I should thank you for the info.

I just wanted to point out that the information runs contrary to the calculations. So bigger the surprise ... the source will gain bigger credibility right?


I am just a messenger..don't shoot the messenger.. I would have to ditch my source if the info turns out false..

[victorian]

We will soon find out..

But, what about his past record?

[immitrickz]

Nothing wrong in conveying your message. But most of us here believe in numbers and facts around the numbers.

Absolutely..this forum excels and differentiates itself from plethora of other such forums..sole reason why i visit it so often..

[immitrickz]

Wow..Managed to get a Database Error.. Everyone already started hating me :)

Database error
The database has encountered a problem.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Please try the following:
•Load the page again by clicking the Refresh button in your web browser.
•Open the www.qesehmk.org home page, then try to open another page.
•Click the Back button to try another link.

The www.qesehmk.org forum technical staff have been notified of the error, though you may contact them if the problem persists.

We apologise for any inconvenience.

[haripathhi]

Wow....list of currently logged on folks are as follows:

28thJune2007, Airbender, angryclubs, belmontboy, bharadwajvs, chirag.n, dontcareaboutGC, EB2Dec2007, gcoracle, gc_usa, goforgreen, gregspirited, haripathhi, iamdeb, immitrickz, Kanmani, khushraho, kolugc, kpt112107,kramani, lazydesi, new2gc, nikar29, nishant2200,pdmay2008, PDWait09, qblogfan, qesehmk, self.coach, sha_kus, soggadu, Spectator, srini1976, srinivasj, ssvp22, sswaitinggc,
suninphx, sunny4gc, tackle, th5000th, victorian, waiting, wantgcnow


Q,

Looks like the site is being put to test now. I already got the 404 error twice while trying to refresh....:) Hopefully we will all get good news today/tomorrow :)

[qesehmk]

150 dollars mein pet nahi bharata ....yeh site kahanse chalegi...

p.s. - that's how much we pay in hosting charges :). The beauty of the forum software is that anybody can install it and use it. But when something goes wrong ... its going to be aweful. May be its a signal that we need to open a fresh thread!


Wow....list of currently logged on folks are as follows:

28thJune2007, Airbender, angryclubs, belmontboy, bharadwajvs, chirag.n, dontcareaboutGC, EB2Dec2007, gcoracle, gc_usa, goforgreen, gregspirited, haripathhi, iamdeb, immitrickz, Kanmani, khushraho, kolugc, kpt112107,kramani, lazydesi, new2gc, nikar29, nishant2200,pdmay2008, PDWait09, qblogfan, qesehmk, self.coach, sha_kus, soggadu, Spectator, srini1976, srinivasj, ssvp22, sswaitinggc,
suninphx, sunny4gc, tackle, th5000th, victorian, waiting, wantgcnow


Q,

Looks like the site is being put to test now. I already got the 404 error twice while trying to refresh....:) Hopefully we will all get good news today/tomorrow :)

[Monica12]

My source tells me there won't be any forward movement in this VB..I am real worried now..
Ok, guys, I'm getting really, really nervous now. I really hope your source is not correct. The predictions on this forum have always been spot on and I sincerely believe Aug VB will show significant forward movement. Biting nails....

[Monica12]

[QUOTE=qesehmk;4370]150 dollars mein pet nahi bharata ....yeh site kahanse chalegi...

LOL, Q !!!

[03May07]

I am planning on refreshing the last page/s on this forum, than refreshing the visa bulletin page. (Is this a bad idea, as I saw Database error too!)

I did the same last bulletin too, and news of bulletin release was posted within a minute of its official release on its official site :).

[velugc]

Almost 4 now i guess VB will be out tomorrow... dont know if will have any nail's left by then...


Already 3 PM. No update @ http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

[Spectator]

Very logically put Spec.
Totally agree with your point.

There are two schools of thought.

imdeng's post gave a great chance to show the consequences of the "literal" interpretation, which says that if demand ever reaches zero, the category must become Current.

Ultimately, the problem is that the law was not written with this scenario in mind - it never envisaged multi year backlogs.

Two dates are necessary - one to file and another to be eligible for approval. The proposal to establish a pre-registration system might have achieved that.

PS Lost my first reply due to load on the server - not sure this one is as good.

PPS I could probably argue black is white!:D

[new2gc]

Absolutely..this forum excels and differentiates itself from plethora of other such forums..sole reason why i visit it so often..

You are trying to spoil the sanctity of this forum....Pls stop the non-sense...we are tired of such topics on the other forum..

[gc0907]

May be Mumbai US Consulate's website gets updated tonight. Hope.

Almost 4 now i guess VB will be out tomorrow... dont know if will have any nail's left by then...

[immitrickz]

I am saying the same. I am just a messenger on behalf of whoever will actually shoot you down!! Hey just kidding. Actually I should thank you for the info.

I just wanted to point out that the information runs contrary to the calculations. So bigger the surprise ... the source will gain bigger credibility right?

or notoriety in this case.. I should leave predictions to you and others.. You understand that you now have the power to divert mass hysteria right? just kidding..

[immitrickz]

You are trying to spoil the sanctity of this forum....Pls stop the non-sense...we are tired of such topics on the other forum..

Q - Please remove all my posts on this topic..

[donvar]

Q - Please remove all my posts on this topic..

People dont want to remove your posts, they just want you to know/establish credibility of your source.

In these moments of wait, I remember sometime back while waiting for some bulletin, one over anxious filer wrote that he was changing the html page number (1360 etc) from the old bulletin link in hope he may get the newly made bulletin page.

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

[qesehmk]

Hey take it easy. We shouldn't be afraid of inconvenient truths. Sorry if I contributed to the hysteria.

I wouldn't remove the posts. But you being the author can easily do it if you wish so. My "advice" is if in your judgement teh information is worthwhile then don't remove it.


Q - Please remove all my posts on this topic..

[Monica12]

Guys, this forum is very clean and peaceful....let's just keep it this way. Emotions are running high and we are all in the same boat....please, let us all be respectful to each other. Thank you !!!!

[nishant2200]

May be Mumbai US Consulate's website gets updated tonight. Hope.

Yeah I think we will need to wait one more day. If they know what to do, why delay the inevitable. I think putting on a website for them must be also a process, where it needs to go through several stamps of approval, review, testing (hopefully) on a test server before making it out to actual production. At some point, it has to come out of administration into the IT department, which would take time. Since their mechanism is always to put on static pages, it's not a dynamic page which fetches information from some data source. This is my positive take on this.

Meanwhile the information is already out on wire to consulates around the world, which when beginning the next business day, may update it a priori to commencing the day.

[bhayzone]

PS Lost my first reply due to load on the server - not sure this one is as good.

PPS I could probably argue black is white!:D

I have felt the frustration of loosing a post too. For that reason, after having finished typing the post, I copy it to another text editor before hitting the submit button. :-)

[neospeed]

we had same delay for June vb (released on may 11th). Dates moved from may 06 to oct 06 (5 months). I hope there will be similar movement for the aug vb as they got it delayed so long already 07/11.

[ssvp22]

I think putting on a website for them must be also a process, where it needs to go through several stamps of approval, review, testing (hopefully) on a test server before making it out to actual production. At some point, it has to come out of administration into the IT department, which would take time.
Itna complex naa hai ek page update karna. They have a CMS where they go and update the html of the page, click save, and done. Page loads and gets cached preventing HTTP 500s and 404s

[bieber]

Q

I hope you give the news even if it's not as per expectations :)

[qesehmk]

I always have and wish everybody does the same and will continue to do the same. For the simple reason that it avoids hype and establishes better clarity which is what our objective is.



Q

I hope you give the news even if it's not as per expectations :)

[Monica12]

I always have and wish everybody does the same and will continue to do the same. For the simple reason that it avoids hype and establishes better clarity which is what our objective is.

Well said !!! :)

[bieber]

I always have and wish everybody does the same and will continue to do the same. For the simple reason that it avoids hype and establishes better clarity which is what our objective is.

Thanks Q, you rock :)

Monica, Kanmani
all the calculations/predictions of our forum came pretty close and I think we need to depend on that than any non-backed up information.

[vizcard]

i don't get why people are so anxious over the VB. If they really want to be the first to know then subscribe to it. All this hand wringing is not healthy. I have a PD of Aug 2008 so I know i have to wait. But all I can do is prepare if it does get current. A few hours or even days is not going to change reality one way or another.

[nishant2200]

i don't get why people are so anxious over the VB. If they really want to be the first to know then subscribe to it. All this hand wringing is not healthy. I have a PD of Aug 2008 so I know i have to wait. But all I can do is prepare if it does get current. A few hours or even days is not going to change reality one way or another.

vizcard, the bulletin subscription is very untrustworthy. Many times the alert comes days late, many times it does not at all, and many times, I have got spam from people trying to assume the government identity and sent me fake bulletin for me to click on it. This is from my personal experience.

Apart from the excitement etc, the main thing is scheduling medicals appointment for people who have not applied yet. plus getting other documents in order.

[chirag.n]

vizcard,

i am a subscriber to the visa bulletin...and the last time it came to me a weeks after it was posted on the DOS site....

there's no need to be confrontational about this. we all are human beings and have innate desires and aspirations...you are entitled to yours and i am entitles to mine...


i don't get why people are so anxious over the VB. If they really want to be the first to know then subscribe to it. All this hand wringing is not healthy. I have a PD of Aug 2008 so I know i have to wait. But all I can do is prepare if it does get current. A few hours or even days is not going to change reality one way or another.

[qesehmk]

Everybody .... calm down. I usually would agree with VizCard but the excitement this time around is understandable because most of these people have been waiting for date to be current for four years now.

Lets be patient and lets not jump on anybody. Cross the finger and hope that the bulletin brings good news as per our calculations.

[Spectator]

Q, Spec, V, T Please check out this:

http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/mark_07142011.html

Notice a "Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act" It does not even have a number. I wonder how it showed up on the mark-up agenda.

Markups are a big deal. That means they are ready to take a vote on the committee and send it from the committee to the house floor for vote.

Of course, Senate Democrats will never vote on any thing that does not include CIR. So its going to be dead on arrival in Senate.

Its really interesting how the legislative process works in the U.S.kd,

Sadly, I note it has now been crossed off.

[tanu_75]

You are trying to spoil the sanctity of this forum....Pls stop the non-sense...we are tired of such topics on the other forum..

Good luck with that. Popularity will in general result in a quality decline as you seem to define it. Then you start policing and offend folks etc etc.

[michaelclarke]

Every body calm down and do not spoil a good thing going.

[pch053]

we had same delay for June vb (released on may 11th). Dates moved from may 06 to oct 06 (5 months). I hope there will be similar movement for the aug vb as they got it delayed so long already 07/11.

I think the movement was 3 and 1/2 months from 1st July'06 - 15th Oct'06. But, still it was a good advancement of PDs.

[kolugc]

So its its beyond 5pm. Do they normally update off office hours? So its going to be tomorrow morning after 9am or so?

[natvyas]

Whilst we wait for the August VB, it occurred to me that there is one scenario that we haven't really discussed much, probably because it seems so unlikely.

It would be a gutsy move by the VO but has some advantages.

That would be to move the Cut Off Date to the latest date in the August VB itself (e.g. June 2008).

That then sets up two possibilities for for September VB.

a) Leave the Cut Off Date Unchanged - this allows two whole months for new I-485 filing before retrogressing the dates in October.

b) Retrogress the Cut Off Date to the true number of visas available - This could be done citing unexpected extra demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW. The advantage is that they would already have allowed new people to file and there would be no uncertainty going into FY2012 as to either when dates would retrogress, or advance and retrogress if they hadn't moved in FY2011. The year could start by using visas for cases that hadn't been approved due to lack of visas.

I haven't really thought it through, so there might be holes in the argument. Please feel free to criticize. I thought I would throw it out there whilst we all wait.



As a PS to imdeng. DOS have to have some plausible story as to the movement IMO. Moving it years, clearly invites demand way beyond the number of visas they could reasonably expect to have a visa immediately available, which is the definition for setting the Cut Off Date. I do see DOS having difficulties eventually in this regard. As noted, anything is possible.

Spec

I agree that this a possibility and had posted this scenario about a week ago.

regards
Nat

[imdeng]

I was looking at past demand data and it seems in last 12 months (July'2010 to July'2011), EB2I inventory came down from 30,500 to 6,400 (24,100 change) while E2C inventory came down from 13,675 to 4,050 (9,625 change). Total change is 33,725. This is not new information but I just wanted to mention how amazing this year is shaping out to be - we still have two VBs left - who knows where we will end up. I don't think anybody envisioned this kind of PD movement until the 12K SOFAD from EB1 news came out.

Now, looking forward, all the factors that made this the bumper year will continue next year as well. Job market is still weak. The H1B demand is extremely weak - which is important since H1B acts as the feeder for EB. Higher scrutiny of EB1 applications is likely to continue. Despite the higher PERM numbers, I have a feeling that EB2I 485 demand for 2008 will be lower than the peak of 1700 per month in early 2007. EB2I demand for 2009 is known to be on the low side. It all adds up to continued aggressive forward movement of EB2I PD.

I am looking forward to DoS opting for building a pipeline so that we can get a better visibility into potential EB2I PD movement post 07/07.

[veni001]

I was looking at past demand data and it seems in last 12 months (July'2010 to July'2011), EB2I inventory came down from 30,500 to 6,400 (24,100 change) while E2C inventory came down from 13,675 to 4,050 (9,625 change). Total change is 33,725. This is not new information but I just wanted to mention how amazing this year is shaping out to be - we still have two VBs left - who knows where we will end up. I don't think anybody envisioned this kind of PD movement until the 12K SOFAD from EB1 news came out.

Now, looking forward, all the factors that made this the bumper year will continue next year as well. Job market is still weak. The H1B demand is extremely weak - which is important since H1B acts as the feeder for EB. Higher scrutiny of EB1 applications is likely to continue. Despite the higher PERM numbers, I have a feeling that EB2I 485 demand for 2008 will be lower than the peak of 1700 per month in early 2007. EB2I demand for 2009 is known to be on the low side. It all adds up to continued aggressive forward movement of EB2I PD.

I am looking forward to DoS opting for building a pipeline so that we can get a better visibility into potential EB2I PD movement post 07/07.

imdeng,
We need to add porting numbers to this reduction.
Comparing September 2010 EB3I demand with August 2011 show a net reduction of 3,925, which means 1,125 more than it's annual allocation.

[khushraho]

Just to create a pipeline for next year's movement, I think they will push the PD to 12/31/2009.

There is a high possibility that then can clear upto this point in next spillover season and theat is the rational behind this thought.

[tanu_75]

I was looking at past demand data and it seems in last 12 months (July'2010 to July'2011), EB2I inventory came down from 30,500 to 6,400 (24,100 change) while E2C inventory came down from 13,675 to 4,050 (9,625 change). Total change is 33,725. This is not new information but I just wanted to mention how amazing this year is shaping out to be - we still have two VBs left - who knows where we will end up. I don't think anybody envisioned this kind of PD movement until the 12K SOFAD from EB1 news came out.

Now, looking forward, all the factors that made this the bumper year will continue next year as well. Job market is still weak. The H1B demand is extremely weak - which is important since H1B acts as the feeder for EB. Higher scrutiny of EB1 applications is likely to continue. Despite the higher PERM numbers, I have a feeling that EB2I 485 demand for 2008 will be lower than the peak of 1700 per month in early 2007. EB2I demand for 2009 is known to be on the low side. It all adds up to continued aggressive forward movement of EB2I PD.

I am looking forward to DoS opting for building a pipeline so that we can get a better visibility into potential EB2I PD movement post 07/07.

I hope it moves too. But something we discussed a few pages back needs to kept in mind. The EB2 ROW pending 485 number is pretty high and if it converts into demand next year and if processing times improve for current EB2ROW then it'll cut into how much dates could move next year.

[nishant2200]

I was looking at past demand data and it seems in last 12 months (July'2010 to July'2011), EB2I inventory came down from 30,500 to 6,400 (24,100 change) while E2C inventory came down from 13,675 to 4,050 (9,625 change). Total change is 33,725. This is not new information but I just wanted to mention how amazing this year is shaping out to be - we still have two VBs left - who knows where we will end up. I don't think anybody envisioned this kind of PD movement until the 12K SOFAD from EB1 news came out.

Now, looking forward, all the factors that made this the bumper year will continue next year as well. Job market is still weak. The H1B demand is extremely weak - which is important since H1B acts as the feeder for EB. Higher scrutiny of EB1 applications is likely to continue. Despite the higher PERM numbers, I have a feeling that EB2I 485 demand for 2008 will be lower than the peak of 1700 per month in early 2007. EB2I demand for 2009 is known to be on the low side. It all adds up to continued aggressive forward movement of EB2I PD.

I am looking forward to DoS opting for building a pipeline so that we can get a better visibility into potential EB2I PD movement post 07/07.

there can be some chinks in the armor, EB1 EB2 ROW cases which become qualified for demand from pending right now, as well as porting. But yes, other factors are true for now what you said, I feel.

Meanwhile I am thinking of ideas as to how I will sleep tonight if the mumbai consulate also does not put any updates in evening.

[qesehmk]

There are tailwinds next years as follows:
- Continued weakness in H1 market and economy in general.
- No resolution on Kazarian memo yet.

But there are strong headwinds too.
- EB1 EB2ROW backlog from 2011.
- PWMBs get added (estimated 6K)
- Portings (2-4K at least)
- Possible EB5 reforms/improvements

And then there is one white SWAN
- Possible spillover from FB to EB

So all in all ... its too early to predict EB future for 2012. But everything else being equal. 2012 will not be as much a bumper year as 2011 is turning out to be.

[Monica12]

Around what time does the Mumbai Consulate post the VB usually? Looks like tonite that is a possibility there...

[pch053]

imdeng,
We need to add porting numbers to this reduction.
Comparing September 2010 EB3I demand with August 2001 show a net reduction of 3,925, which means 1,125 more than it's annual allocation.

Veni,
If we assume that 3/4 quota (~2100) of EB3-I has been allocated so far, then the # of porting cases is 1,125 + 700 = 1,825. Do you think this is a fair estimate for EB3->EB2 porting cases so far? In my calculation, I am totally disregarding CP cases which is probably more for EB3 than EB2 but still the point I am trying to make is that porting is not significant (maybe in the vicinity of 2K). It's not that new information but I wonder why people were conjecturing the EB3->EB2 porting numbers to be as high as 10K (especially in trackitt; people always had reasonable estimate in this forum)!

[shivarajan]

Around what time does the Mumbai Consulate post the VB usually? Looks like tonite that is a possibility there...


9.00pm to 12.00am PST

[indiasunil]

My PD 01/15/2008 - EB2 .. Can we expect in Aug or Sep VB ?

[haripathhi]

GEICO: 15 minutes of reading the header on the first page could save 15% or more of our time! Lol! Jk! Please read the header (which is updated regularly)...its hard for the gurus to predict for individual pd's

My PD 01/15/2008 .. Can we expect in Aug or Sep VB ?

[veni001]

GEICO: 15 minutes of reading the header on the first page could save 15% or more of our time! Lol! Jk! Please read the header (which is updated regularly)...its hard for the gurus to predict for individual pd's

Correction QESEHMK inplace of GIECO :)

[veni001]

Veni,
If we assume that 3/4 quota (~2100) of EB3-I has been allocated so far, then the # of porting cases is 1,125 + 700 = 1,825. Do you think this is a fair estimate for EB3->EB2 porting cases so far? In my calculation, I am totally disregarding CP cases which is probably more for EB3 than EB2 but still the point I am trying to make is that porting is not significant (maybe in the vicinity of 2K). It's not that new information but I wonder why people were conjecturing the EB3->EB2 porting numbers to be as high as 10K (especially in trackitt; people always had reasonable estimate in this forum)!

pch053,
I think 2K EB3I->EB2I porting between October 2010 and July 2011 is a fair estimate.
Let's how many more porting cases will get approval in Q4.

[mygctracker]

Aug 2011 demand data released... indicates 10k demand was used for Aug VB cut-off dates. Hopefully VB should be out tomorrow with gr8 news... :-)

[nishant2200]

Aug 2011 demand data released... indicates 10k demand was used for Aug VB cut-off dates. Hopefully VB should be out tomorrow with gr8 news... :-)

the demand data I saw hours ago while I was beginning my day in the bathroom ritual in the morning. And wanted to post about it but Spec beat me to it. We have all been wrecking our brains on it on last few pages. Anyways, welcome to the party, no harm in sharing when you found it, and we are all waiting for the news!

[pravara]

the demand data I saw hours ago while I was beginning my day in the bathroom ritual in the morning.

-->It's a bit TMI, bro :) Hang in there, I had the same feeling until last bulletin too...

[pg_at_q]

Wouldn't it be great if CO also publishes the supply data (i.e. no of Visas available) when he publishes the demand data? Wouldn't that make life easy for everyone?

[Nishant11]

In my opinion, delay for visa bulletin may have nothing unusual reason except that in first 11 days of this month, there were 4 weekends plus one holiday and they need minimum working days to complete their tasks before they can publish data.

[nishant2200]

Wouldn't it be great if CO also publishes the supply data (i.e. no of Visas available) when he publishes the demand data? Wouldn't that make life easy for everyone?

Too much transparency can be a negative too, in the absence of laws which take into account multi-year backlogs and how to deal with that.

[03May07]

Meanwhile I am thinking of ideas as to how I will sleep tonight if the mumbai consulate also does not put any updates in evening.

:)
Same here!!

[pch053]

In my opinion, delay for visa bulletin may have nothing unusual reason except that in first 11 days of this month, there were 4 weekends plus one holiday and they need minimum working days to complete their tasks before they can publish data.
This can very well be the reason; in general, the visa bulletin comes out a day after the I485 data. So, it will be on the expected lines if the bulletin comes out tomorrow. As of now, we only had 6 working days in July. If I remember correctly, last month the visa bulletin was released on 8th June, which was the 6th working day of the month.So, if we see the bulletin tomorrow (7th working day of the month), it won't be anything unusual.

On a different note, this can also explain the fewer trackitt approvals so far. This is in addition to the fact that USCIS had issues with their online system, emails, etc. In the 1st 11 days, the # of approvals during May, June and July are 100, 150 and 73 respectively. Out of those 11 days, both May and June had 8 working days and July had 6 working days. I will expect # of approvals for the later half of July to be higher than May and June.

[Pdmar08]

Glad everyones calmed down after what could have been an unusual day on the forum.
For a lot of time i was feeling like i m watchin india vs (ne1) ..last over.

Anyways,
1. Can someone Enlighten me on how there are pds after aug 2007 in the demand data?
2. If we are saying next year is not going to be bumper, wht kind of numbers are we looking at?

[shivarajan]

Waiting waiting... "firefox reloadEvery plugin" too was of no help :)

Looks like Mumbai consulate decided it will not be the one to pull the pin ...
Guess dos/uscis will do the honor of breaking the ice t'mm!

Had to skip dinner since all fingers were crossed ;)

:rolleyes:

[tanu_75]

Waiting waiting... "firefox reloadEvery plugin" too was of no help :)

Looks like Mumbai consulate decided it will not be the one to pull the pin ...
Guess dos/uscis will do the honor of breaking the ice t'mm!

Had to skip dinner since all fingers were crossed ;)

:rolleyes:

Frankly I would hope Mumbai Consulate keeps its mouth shut. I know of at least 2 times when they have f***ed up the dates and not in a good way. They gave a date which was current for EB2 India when it only moved a week or so (changed it once official VB was out). I would much rather wait for the official VB than get one VB from Mumbai and then wonder wtf is going on.

[GCDespo]

Glad everyones calmed down after what could have been an unusual day on the forum.
For a lot of time i was feeling like i m watchin india vs (ne1) ..last over.

Anyways,
1. Can someone Enlighten me on how there are pds after aug 2007 in the demand data?
2. If we are saying next year is not going to be bumper, wht kind of numbers are we looking at?

To answer your 1 st question. There was a explanation long time ago,I forgot the source, but it was from some Official USCIS/DOS Source.There are 2 reasons for this.
1)Some applicants who changed their country of chargability and submitted I-485 were still shown under original bucket.
2)Some applicants who were under EB3 and had a priority date earlier than July 2007 and ported to EB2 were shown with the date of their EB3 porting date rather than the earlier prority date by mistake

[vipulgupta470]

I guess D-Day has arrived for Aug 2011 bulletin. Keeping my fingers crossed as its a long shot for me (PD Feb 2008). But all the best for those who are going to get current this month's bulletin.

[ssvp22]

Last night went by in confusion. I was getting up in dreams and in real, checking my phone in case VB has been updated. Even dreamt that my PD is current. OMG.

[nishant2200]

Last night went by in confusion. I was getting up in dreams and in real, checking my phone in case VB has been updated. Even dreamt that my PD is current. OMG.

I have been there n know what u r saying. I even by mistake saw some family based category which is in 2008 first on the page when I refreshed on iphone and almost had a anxiety attack due to happiness.

Let's see. A lot of people's hopes are being carried on this one. May good sense prevail.

[Monica12]

Last night went by in confusion. I was getting up in dreams and in real, checking my phone in case VB has been updated. Even dreamt that my PD is current. OMG.

same here :)

[gc_usa]

Seems like I am not alone.. there are thousands like me out there. I woke up early and checked in my iphone. Oh my GOD ! Once we get GC we all need 30 days vacation to get out from this stress

[th5000th]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_August2011.pdf

[qesehmk]

:) sure we all do.

Seems like I am not alone.. there are thousands like me out there. I woke up early and checked in my iphone. Oh my GOD ! Once we get GC we all need 30 days vacation to get out from this stress

[qesehmk]

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_August2011.pdf

Bow to you my friend. I tried that trick until it seems to have worked with you!!

[SDAKSHIN]

Good news for me my PD is 10APR2007...For all those who dint make wish you very good luck in next SEP VB

[vishnu]

Q - does this mean they don't have enough numbers left and hence only the 1 month forward movement? The only silver lining is that they continue to not provide any commentary about EB visas going forward where for the FB category, they do say that there would be retrogression. Appears that they still want to keep their options open.

[GCDespo]

I have to Cancel the doctors appointment now. Mine is May ,2007.

[ravisekhar]

I think Engine Lost steam for the year. Time to wait for May/June 2012 Bulletin.

[snathan]

Bow to you my friend. I tried that trick until it seems to have worked with you!!

Alright ... so here it goes EB2IC is moved to 15 Apr 2007.

Practically no movement...disappointing

[velugc]

Disappointed on personal front... only 5 weeks movement in Aug... Looks like the spillover has dried up and Sep would have even lesser movement...:(

[angryclubs]

Q,
Congratulations for being current

[soggadu]

I am very much disappointed by this move of 1 mon... Not sure if oct 07 has any hopes this year.... But anyway... All the best to all of them who got current.... Yipppiieeeee....

[nishant2200]

It's up officially now on html. 15 april 2007.

Have no clue why. Maybe because EB1 n EB2 ROW picking up

[ssvp22]

Time to wait for May/June 2012 Bulletin.Nooooo :( :( :(

[snathan]

It's up officially now on html. 15 april 2007.

Have no clue why. Maybe because EB1 n EB2 ROW picking up

USCIS wants to clear up all the pending EB1 and EB2 ROW cases....

[Spectator]

The August VB also confirms (as if we didn't know already) that the EB limit for the year is 140,000. USCIS have finally provided the information for the final determination.


E. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the CIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On June 9th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2011 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2011 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 140,000

Under INA Section 202(A), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2011 the per-country limit is 25,620. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,320.

[Monica12]

Oh nooo... this is very disappointing. Wonder now if dates will move for september ? :(

[sidd21]

Congratulation all who are current(inlcuding me..... had missed being current last month by 1 day). Best of luck to all of us.

I Hope Sept bulletin has more movement for fellow forum members


Bow to you my friend. I tried that trick until it seems to have worked with you!!

Alright ... so here it goes EB2IC is moved to 15 Apr 2007.

[qesehmk]

Overall the bulletin is a bit disappointing really. 5 weeks of movement is about 2-3K movement. Its possible but not probable that they might have left another 4-5K for September. As Spec pointed out earlier yes now its confirmed there isn't going to be in any FB spillover for this year.

What it means for massive movement forward and back?
As of now it doesnt mean much eitherway. However, if DoS stays the dates where they are today, then DoS has the luxury to defer any intake of fresh applications as late as Mar 2012.

What does it mean for 2012 SOFAD?
Any bad news this year reduces the bad news for 2012. If 2011 would've cleared the backlog then 2012 would've been a very dull year. But it seems DoS/USCIS are choosing to not withheld EB1 or EB2ROW and clear as much of them as possible this year itself. So effectively this is good for 2012. However the pain and misery of PWMBs as well as the rest waiting to file 485 continues.

Congratulations to those who are current including oink oink! Lets chew on it further. Best ...



Q - does this mean they don't have enough numbers left and hence only the 1 month forward movement? The only silver lining is that they continue to not provide any commentary about EB visas going forward where for the FB category, they do say that there would be retrogression. Appears that they still want to keep their options open.
I agree. I do not think everything is lost.


I have to Cancel the doctors appointment now. Mine is May ,2007.
Postpone it if you can.


I think Engine Lost steam for the year. Time to wait for May/June 2012 Bulletin.
I wouldn't give up yet.


Practically no movement...disappointing snathan we go back to IV ...I remember you very well. Don't give up so easily.


Disappointed on personal front... only 5 weeks movement in Aug... Looks like the spillover has dried up and Sep would have even lesser movement...:( Its possible that Sep has no movement. But we don't know that until we saw it. Given that they can churn out GCs like candies once visas are available means they can - if they want to - reserve some movement for september as well.


Q,
Congratulations for being current Thank you angryclubs.


Oh nooo... this is very disappointing. Wonder now if dates will move in september ? :( Yeah it was certainly disappointing. Mostly because now they have kept themselves enough buffer to feed entire 2012 EB2IC quota. But lets hope that either September brings fresh sustainable movement or a massive temporary movement.

[velugc]

bought a Black Label to celebrate Aug (thinking i will be current)... all went in vain... now will drink this BL to forget my disappointment....

[ravisekhar]

Only Funny thing is http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html is already talking about Spetemeber bulletin.

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: September 2011 (Coming Soon)

This month's visa bulletin: August 2011

Archived visa bulletins: July 2011 and before

[veni001]

Congratulations to Q and other, will be current in August 2011.

Let's get back to the numbers game one last time for FY 2011 :)

[TeddyKoochu]

For EB2-I the bulletin is beyond doubt disappointing, the movement is ~3K in terms of numbers. I believe that a maximum of 4-5K worth of SOFAD is what maybe left (It may well be less) and the farthest that we could reach with that maybe most likely somewhere in early May 2007. The final range for 2011 will be between 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007. Lets wait and watch.

[tikkahyd]

My priority date is March 20th, 2007 and receipt date is April 25th, 2007
Can I start to unclench my stomach now or do I have to wait till next month ?

[velugc]

June July and Aug PWMBs are the worst sufferers… we missed the boat and where cursing our luck and now again looks like we are going to miss the boat again in 2011… (Hoping May 2007 will get current in SEP bulletin)

[TeddyKoochu]

Congratulations to Q and other, will be current in August 2011.

Let's get back to the numbers game one last time for FY 2011 :)

+1 Many Congratulations to Q and everyone current by the Aug bulletin and to everyone who got approved in July.

[qesehmk]

What matters is PD. However I am not clear what is Apr 25th? Receipt for labor?


My priority date is March 20th, 2007 and receipt date is April 25th, 2007
Can I start to unclench my stomach now or do I have to wait till next month ?

[tikkahyd]

Thanks for the quick reply ..
Yes .. the receipt date is the date on my I140

[shreyasai2004]

Visa Bulletine is not available now

[qesehmk]

What keeps the hopes alive is that the trackitt trend calculations (please refer to FACTS and DATA section) keep pointing us to a minimum of Jun 2007 date.

So probably there is some more to come. Or may be one of our assumptions is wrong:
1. EB1 or EB2ROW consumption is higher
2. EB5 spillover is less
3. Portings are a bit higher

or a piece of all of teh above.

But all in all ... to be honest .. we are reasonably in the ballpark. As I have always said, policy drives a lot of these movements equally along with demand and supply. So who knows whats cooking there.


June July and Aug PWMBs are the worst sufferers… we missed the boat and where cursing our luck and now again looks like we are going to miss the boat again in 2011… (Hoping May 2007 will get current in SEP bulletin)

[ssvp22]

Ah man, cant believe this VB. Seems like will have to wait for another year, while every single day at work is like hell.

[shreyasai2004]

There is no visa bulliten in webpage is it showing August 2011 Comming soon......

[immitrickz]

VB still shows -

The Visa Bulletin offers valuable information about immigration*. Click on the appropriate link below to find the desired bulletin.

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: August 2011 (Coming Soon)
This month's visa bulletin: July 2011

Archived visa bulletins: June 2011 and before

..

I did clear my cache and all..

[zenmaster]

bought a Black Label to celebrate Aug (thinking i will be current)... all went in vain... now will drink this BL to forget my disappointment....

lol............

[ssvp22]

Visa Bulletine is not available now

Oh yeah. Its gone.

[veni001]

Visa Bulletine is not available now


There is no visa bulliten in webpage is it showing August 2011 Comming soon......


VB still shows -

The Visa Bulletin offers valuable information about immigration*. Click on the appropriate link below to find the desired bulletin.

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: August 2011 (Coming Soon)
This month's visa bulletin: July 2011

Archived visa bulletins: June 2011 and before

..

I did clear my cache and all..


Le't hope they are not changing it!

[shreyasai2004]

Whats going on with USCIS

[ssvp22]

Oh yeah. Its gone.
But this is still working - http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_August2011.pdf

[veni001]

Looks like Bollywood movie Premier :):):)
My be its a typo should be 15AUG2007 instead of 15APR2007

[ssvp22]

Looks like Bollywood movie Premier :):):)
My be its a typo should be 15AUG2007 instead of 15APR2007
How about 15th November :). I will be current in that case!!

[mvinayam]

Oh yeah. Its gone.


I hope they change it to April, 15th 2008 :) .

[snathan]

Le't hope they are not changing it!

May be something is cooking...hope to see as APR 15 2008/2009

[veni001]

How about 15th November :). I will be current in that case!!


May be something is cooking...hope to see as APR 15 2008/2009

USCIS is considering all possibilities now!

[qblogfan]

I heard DOS made a typo in this VB. The date was supposed to be April 15, 2008.

They removed the VB immediately after they found the error. They will republish shortly.


Oh yeah. Its gone.

[ssvp22]

I heard DOS made a typo in this VB. The date was supposed to be April 15, 2008.

They removed the VB immediately after they found the error. They will republish shortly.Can you please disclose your source.

[kpt112107]

Should be 21st Nov

How about 15th November :). I will be current in that case!!

[qblogfan]

I saw it on MITBBS.


Can you please disclose your source.

[ssvp22]

I saw it on MITBBS.

Can you please provide the link to the post

[abhimad]

I heard DOS made a typo in this VB. The date was supposed to be April 15, 2008.

They removed the VB immediately after they found the error. They will republish shortly.

Isn't that extreme wishful thinking? :)

Somehow I need to cope with this disappointment. Maybe we should form a self-help group "Visa bulletin-aholics anonymous"

[snathan]

I heard DOS made a typo in this VB. The date was supposed to be April 15, 2008.

They removed the VB immediately after they found the error. They will republish shortly.

Are you serious...the VB is still there if you type the direct url. Only the linking page is gone

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html

[qesehmk]

USCIS is considering all possibilities now!
For all we know they may be playing angrybirds :)


Thanks for the quick reply ..
Yes .. the receipt date is the date on my I140
So your PERM was approved in a few days and you immediately filed for I-140? Quite lucky!
But anyway ... the PD mentioned on I-140 is what is important. It doesn't matter wehn USCIS received your I-140.

[ssvp22]

Looks like Bollywood movie Premier :):):)
How about India Australia World Cup Quarterfinal match :)

[gchopeful123]

qblogfan,

Tere mooh mere ghee shakkar aur sau laddoo. I hope you are right buddy :)

If you are right, I will find you till the end of this earth and take you out for beer...


I heard DOS made a typo in this VB. The date was supposed to be April 15, 2008.

They removed the VB immediately after they found the error. They will republish shortly.

[ssvp22]

For all we know they may be playing angrybirds :)
And we are refreshing all pages possible to get the latest VB

[mpurna77]

Oh yeah. Its gone.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html

is august bulletin.

They removed from main page may be correcting again :-)

[GCDespo]

They must have taken the pointing page to correct the page to show Augst as comng months bulletin. Earlier when it was up it showed September bulliten is coming soon. They must be correcting this.

Just Cosmetic corrections. Dont get your hopes up and get dissopointed later.

I am keeping my fingers crossed though

[Monica12]

They must have taken the pointing page to correct the page to show Augst as comng months bulletin. Earlier when it was up it showed September bulliten is coming soon. They must be correcting this.

Just Cosmetic corrections. Dont get your hopes up and get dissopointed later.

I am keeping my fingers crossed though

Kya Yaar....these USCIS people will give me a heart-attack one day :(
Congratulations Q and others who are current :) :)

[veni001]

They must have taken the pointing page to correct the page to show Augst as comng months bulletin. Earlier when it was up it showed September bulliten is coming soon. They must be correcting this.

Just Cosmetic corrections. Dont get your hopes up and get dissopointed later.

I am keeping my fingers crossed though

Some drama is always good!

[qesehmk]

gchopeful, qbf is a chinese person. He wouldn't understand what you just said! But instead of "laddoes" he may appreciate some chinese sweets!

qblogfan if your assertion about 15-Aug-2008 turns true ... you just have won tons of friends here! Lets see. Hope is a pretty tough weed!

qblogfan,

Tere mooh mere ghee shakkar aur sau laddoo. I hope you are right buddy :)

If you are right, I will find you till the end of this earth and take you out for beer...

[TeddyKoochu]

I heard DOS made a typo in this VB. The date was supposed to be April 15, 2008.

They removed the VB immediately after they found the error. They will republish shortly.

The bulletin is still accessible by the original URL so chances of it being incorrect are low. Thanks to you for providing the MITTBS updates here. If what you say turns out to be true than you ae the hero and this will be remembered as the Aug 2011 fiasco. We are all living on hope here more than anything so your postings are greatly appreciated.

[sha_kus]

Hai Rama kya hai yeh Drama... Bheja ko milraha hai Trauma....

[sha_kus]

And really i think if they have to change anything in the published Bulletin they have to put in another amendment explaining the same... I think so...

[wantgcnow]

what is MITTBS?

[ssvp22]

what is MITTBS?

http://www.mitbbs.com/

[Stemcell]

There has to be a reason for them pulling the VB right ?
Now was it a typo for EB2 or some other category....God only know, but boy if its April 08.....i am gonna hit the bar right now !


Q,
On a lighter vein you source was dead on about Mon/Tue but he didnt give a heads up about the 'drama'.....next time i will have a aspirin and nitroglycerin for the heartaches ready...;)

[gchopeful123]

Q - thanks for pointing that out :)

qblogfan - my apologies!!! But my offer still holds true :) Praying that you are right!!



gchopeful, qbf is a chinese person. He wouldn't understand what you just said! But instead of "laddoes" he may appreciate some chinese sweets!

qblogfan if your assertion about 15-Aug-2008 turns true ... you just have won tons of friends here! Lets see. Hope is a pretty tough weed!

[lprseeker]

I heard DOS made a typo in this VB. The date was supposed to be April 15, 2008.

They removed the VB immediately after they found the error. They will republish shortly.

If that is true, I bet a lot of people on this site with PD between 15-APR-2007 and 15-APR-2008 are going to remember you forever.

[mpurna77]

THey not moving backwards so its fine I think. they don't need any amentment for this.

[gigabytes]

what is MITTBS?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_BBS

[lprseeker]

Looks like somebody in USCIS had incorrectly setup a task in their outlook calendar to enable the bulletin today instead of doing it tomorrow!

[kpt112107]

I am not sure how much trustable this information is....
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31362401.html


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_BBS

[Monica12]

I am not sure how much trustable this information is....
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31362401.html

trying to decipher Chinese.... never thought it will come to this. Yeh USCIS waale to jaan lake he rahen gey....

[vizcard]

read my post from yesterday. Calm down everyone. No need to get anxiety attacks and lose sleep (like some have) over this. I get that it's been a long wait but seriously relax. Its not healthy.

I use a combination of single malt scotch and Family Guy to keep me sane. That and 12 hr work days ofcourse.

[qblogfan]

Dear friends, never lose hope. We will win sooner or later.

I will keep fingers crossed and hope they can change the VB to 2008.


If that is true, I bet a lot of people on this site with PD between 15-APR-2007 and 15-APR-2008 are going to remember you forever.

[qesehmk]

You have developed some bad habits. And I am not talking about scotch or family guy.

I use a combination of single malt scotch and Family Guy to keep me sane. That and 12 hr work days ofcourse.

[ChampU]

Hi Q,

Yesterday a few people reported getting "Database errors" while viewing this blog and it happened to me twice this morning. It is understandable considering the traffic this blog gets for being a source/platform for members/users to contribute/discuss and analyze GC related information.
Personally, this blog is one of the websites that I visit at least once a day and getting the error is at times disheartening. If I could contribute in any way to enable you to buy more bandwidth, please let me know.

Keep up the good work!

Champ

[nishant2200]

If this turns out true I am going to start believe in my stupid instincts more, as first thought I had when I saw bulletin was it must be a mistake, can't be 2007 :D

Serious note, they may just want to add some comment, as well as there are plenty other categories whose date may need change.

Qblogfan, if ur mitbbs turns out true, u shud be awarded honorary PhD.

[tackle]

I think they tried to fix the issue with "September Bulletin - coming soon" being shown and broke the link to August bulletin. And since it is taking such a long time, I think they don't actually realize that they broke the link. So, as soon as they realize that the link is gone, they'll just fix it and add the link back to that page. So, personally, I don't have any hopes for any change in the dates. PS: My PD is Sep 12 2007.

[vizcard]

You have developed some bad habits. And I am not talking about scotch or family guy.

lol. well its paid off ... literally... got a 50% hike in pay this year. I can't imagine what my market value will be when I can actually change jobs with an EAD or GC.

[rinku1112]

Congrats Q and everyone else who are current with this bulletin.

PWMBs - hang on guys, end is near for us even if it may not be next month. Dont fall apart now. I am one of you too and enjoyed following all your comments here for a very long time.

Cheers.

[nishant2200]

I think they tried to fix the issue with "September Bulletin - coming soon" being shown and broke the link to August bulletin. And since it is taking such a long time, I think they don't actually realize that they broke the link. So, as soon as they realize that the link is gone, they'll just fix it and add the link back to that page. So, personally, I don't have any hopes for any change in the dates. PS: My PD is Sep 12 2007.
It's not uncommon for the coming soon being posted same day, have seen earlier.

[gchopeful123]

tackle,
lets be optimistic. MY PD is Sep 24,2007


I think they tried to fix the issue with "September Bulletin - coming soon" being shown and broke the link to August bulletin. And since it is taking such a long time, I think they don't actually realize that they broke the link. So, as soon as they realize that the link is gone, they'll just fix it and add the link back to that page. So, personally, I don't have any hopes for any change in the dates. PS: My PD is Sep 12 2007.

[srini1976]

Q and other Congrats

[qesehmk]

ChampU,

Really appreciate the gesture and will sure ask you if we need anything.

For now the site is hosted on hostmonster.com which engages in throttling to avoid one application using all the bandwidth.

I noticed that the database error comes when reader count hits 360 or so. So let me check if there is a limit on database connections or users etc. Thanks again!


Hi Q,

Yesterday a few people reported getting "Database errors" while viewing this blog and it happened to me twice this morning. It is understandable considering the traffic this blog gets for being a source/platform for members/users to contribute/discuss and analyze GC related information.
Personally, this blog is one of the websites that I visit at least once a day and getting the error is at times disheartening. If I could contribute in any way to enable you to buy more bandwidth, please let me know.

Keep up the good work!

Champ

[indiasunil]

I guess its TYPO - Apr 2008 instead of APR 2007 - Hope for the best in few hours !!..:cool:

[visagcinfo]

More drama folks...
The VB main page is now not showing the link to August VB. It is as if August VB is not published yet.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

Did anyone notice or is it just me?

[skpanda]

Can somebody translate/write down what is in that MITBBS site? For some reason, i am not able to do it using the translation websites. Thanks!


If this turns out true I am going to start believe in my stupid instincts more, as first thought I had when I saw bulletin was it must be a mistake, can't be 2007 :D

Serious note, they may just want to add some comment, as well as there are plenty other categories whose date may need change.

Qblogfan, if ur mitbbs turns out true, u shud be awarded honorary PhD.

[skpanda]

EB2IC's dream run for FY 2011 comes to an end with August Bulletin. People with PDs beyond July 2007 - Good luck next year!!

[ssvp22]

Given the fact that this is still live - http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_August2011.pdf , i doubt the typo theory.

[ssvp22]

lol. well its paid off ... literally... got a 50% hike in pay this year. I can't imagine what my market value will be when I can actually change jobs with an EAD or GC.

Not sure what you are making, in tech 150-170k is easy once GC is in hand.

[kolugc]

Both these links are intact

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_August2011.pdf
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html

So typo may not be true, great if its true though.... But keep the hopes low, at the least its less disappointment..

[tackle]

Thanks gchopeful123. I was optimistic until earlier today. I was disappointed when I saw the bulletin. Now, I'm at a state where I do not want to get my hopes back up to be disappointed again. Let us just wait for them to put the link back up. Best wishes to all :).


tackle,
lets be optimistic. MY PD is Sep 24,2007

[lprseeker]

Hi Q,

Yesterday a few people reported getting "Database errors" while viewing this blog and it happened to me twice this morning. It is understandable considering the traffic this blog gets for being a source/platform for members/users to contribute/discuss and analyze GC related information.
Personally, this blog is one of the websites that I visit at least once a day and getting the error is at times disheartening. If I could contribute in any way to enable you to buy more bandwidth, please let me know.

Keep up the good work!

Champ

I second ChampU's thoughts, and would like to help in any way possible, monetory or technical. No effort should go in vain, to help keep this site running. I, personally have learnt much from this site, than from any other sources.

[gchopeful123]

If it was really a typo, they have to rectify the front page/html first - the pdfs and other underlying links come later. Maybe that's why these are still unchanged...just being optimistic...aall is well...aall is well !!!


Both these links are intact

http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_August2011.pdf
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html

So typo may not be true, great if its true though.... But keep the hopes low, at the least its less disappointment..

[natvyas]

if this is a typo then USCIS will weigh the legal ramifications (if any) before making a change.....

Regards
Nat

[leo4ever]

I think its a typo as both the links for Aug VB are up. If they have to correct the bulletin those pages should have been donw. Probably they wanted to remove September comming soon. They might be correcting the main page now.


If it was really a typo, they have to rectify the front page/html first - the pdfs and other underlying links come later. Maybe that's why these are still unchanged...just being optimistic...aall is well...aall is well !!!

[leo07]

Congratulations, if there's any silver lining in the bulletin for all, this is it. I'm happy for you.

Best!

ChampU,

Really appreciate the gesture and will sure ask you if we need anything.

For now the site is hosted on hostmonster.com which engages in throttling to avoid one application using all the bandwidth.

I noticed that the database error comes when reader count hits 360 or so. So let me check if there is a limit on database connections or users etc. Thanks again!

[srini1976]

Q,
Can you check with your source about all this drama on Aug VB?
Thanks.

[leo07]

Guys,

Please stop the conspiracy theories. I know it's exciting to 'believe' that DOS will change the VB, but try to get real. DOS/CIS had taught us to digest the bad news for month over month for more than a decade, we must be used to the bad news more than the good news. Relax and we'll get back to calculations for next VB shortly.

I think its a typo as both the links for Aug VB are up. If they have to correct the bulletin those pages should have been donw. Probably they wanted to remove September comming soon. They might be correcting the main page now.

[polapragada]

USCIS is considering all possibilities now!
LOL .. USCIS always believes in surprises

[ssvp22]

Please stop the conspiracy theories
conspiracy theories are part of being human. Else we will be machines where we do the assigned set of work and stop.

[gc0907]

I heard their email notification is not reliable but wondering if anyone received aug2011 notification via email?

It's like hoping 3rd umpire will declare that Sachin is not out though our eyes saw he is out.

[pch053]

Q/Spec/Teddy/Veni and others,
This bulletin might be in sync with the lower estimates of spillovers. As mentioned in the earlier posts, there can be anywhere between 3.6K - 9.6K spillovers available. This 5 weeks of movement will consume nearly ~2.5K - 3K spillovers. If we see similar movement in the Sep bulletin, the dates will be around late May'07 (or even 1st June) and that is still within the range of estimates that we have. I now see two possibilities in Sep bulletin: i) USCIS advances the dates drastically in Sep bulletin by appox 1 year (and then retrogresses in Oct or Nov bulletin) or ii) they advance another few weeks to months to consume the remaining spillovers available. This bulletin is a disappointing for sure but I still feel that there is a possibility of option (i). In the worst case, all PWMB and early - mid 2012 PDs will probably get a chance to file their I485 by March - April'2012. Any thoughts!

[ssvp22]

It's like hoping 3rd umpire will declare that Sachin is not out though our eyes saw he is out.
OMG. My childhood went hoping that every time Sachin would play. But Pakistan made that dream come true in WorldCup when they dropped him 4 times.

[pdmay2008]

OMG. My childhood went hoping that every time Sachin would play. But Pakistan made that dream come true in WorldCup when they dropped him 4 times.

Underlying html link also removed

[pdmay2008]

Sorry. Looked at the wrong link. My anxiety won against my frustration.

[SaturnRing]

No, the underlying link http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html is still active. I am still able to view the dates. As others have pointed out, even if this is a typo, they might not correct it this month....

One optimistic thought I have is they probably will have about 4 k (3 K movement in Aug bulletin leaving ~4K spillover left for september), and this 4k is probably going to be given to CP to bring the dates to Mid 2008 next bulletin .... :)

[shreyasai2004]

Guru's

Is there any update on Visa Bulletin

[ChampU]

Guys,

Please stop the conspiracy theories. I know it's exciting to 'believe' that DOS will change the VB, but try to get real. DOS/CIS had taught us to digest the bad news for month over month for more than a decade, we must be used to the bad news more than the good news. Relax and we'll get back to calculations for next VB shortly.

Here'z a quick poll.. How many of us are focussed on work at hand at this moment and what percentage of your attention is focussed on the VB and the blog??
Personally for me, 95% on the blog/VB.. 10% on work that pays bills.. I know thats more than 100% but hey.. its the spillover season...... :)

[tanu_75]

Guru's

Is there any update on Visa Bulletin

good morning. come sit.

[veni001]

Q/Spec/Teddy/Veni and others,
This bulletin might be in sync with the lower estimates of spillovers. As mentioned in the earlier posts, there can be anywhere between 3.6K - 9.6K spillovers available. This 5 weeks of movement will consume nearly ~2.5K - 3K spillovers. If we see similar movement in the Sep bulletin, the dates will be around late May'07 (or even 1st June) and that is still within the range of estimates that we have. I now see two possibilities in Sep bulletin: i) USCIS advances the dates drastically in Sep bulletin by appox 1 year (and then retrogresses in Oct or Nov bulletin) or ii) they advance another few weeks to months to consume the remaining spillovers available. This bulletin is a disappointing for sure but I still feel that there is a possibility of option (i). In the worst case, all PWMB and early - mid 2012 PDs will probably get a chance to file their I485 by March - April'2012. Any thoughts!

pch053,
Yes, EB2IC PD movement so far this year is exactly in-line with our initial estimates! Irrespective of September 2011 Visa Bulletin EB2I dates will settle down around JUN-JUL 2007 until next(FY2012) spillover season.

[SDAKSHIN]

OMG why haven't they restore Aug VB link, is there any chance they might retrogress or revert it to July VB dates?... I know I am in panic mode...but cant hlp thinking all kinds of worst case scenario...Was excited my PD got current but since the link went missing I am back in panic mode...

[nishant2200]

I think they are trying to focus attention now on EB1 and EB2 ROW after focusing on EB2 I/C for last few months. They want to make more of them documentarily qualified and assign visa numbers. Many of them must have responded to the RFEs by now.

I think we can think that they are never going to make gutsy moves, but always move in the line of caution, and they are ok with wasting few visas, say 400, instead of moving aggressively.

I also think this 15 APRIL 2007 is a result of communication between DOS, USCIS and VO. If this would not have been there, DOS would have advanced substantially or a repeat of the July 2007, because they would have just gone by the demand data of 10.5k visas demand left. Instead because of communication, they must have been apprised of the situation about EB1 and EB2 ROW by USCIS, and hence the decision.

This means that EB2 ROW will continue remaining current, which is a good thing.

[victorian]

OMG why haven't they restore Aug VB link, is there any chance they might retrogress or revert it to July VB dates?... I know I am in panic mode...but cant hlp thinking all kinds of worst case scenario...Was excited my PD got current but since the link went missing I am back in panic mode...

Save the earlier visa bulletin PDF for a lawsuit if this comes pass. :P . My PD is 09 Mar 2007, I am not panicking .................. yet. But if you must panic, panic first!

[orangeca]

Bulleting is back online again. It is the same:

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5518.html

[Monica12]

vb is up again and it's the same dates, I THINK :(

[GC-Utopic]

bulletin is up

[chirag.n]

ok..its back...no change from original..

[ssvp22]

ok..its back...no change from original..
This sucks man.

[03May07]

OMG why haven't they restore Aug VB link, is there any chance they might retrogress or revert it to July VB dates?... I know I am in panic mode...but cant hlp thinking all kinds of worst case scenario...Was excited my PD got current but since the link went missing I am back in panic mode...

SDAKSHIN,
The link is restored. I think you can switch off your Panic mode.

[nishant2200]

My life was on pause since last few months. My daughter and wife saying something, I was occupied on iPhone reading information and websites. thinking , hoping , dreaming.

I can get back to my same old life now for one more year, and enjoy what I have already.

[pdmay2008]

vb is up again and it's the same dates, I THINK :(

Hope for the best in June 2012. I do not see any light in the near future.

[SDAKSHIN]

SDAKSHIN,
The link is restored. I think you can switch off your Panic mode.

lol atlast.

[GC-Utopic]

So true buddy, well said



My life was on pause since last few months. My daughter and wife saying something, I was occupied on iPhone reading information and websites. thinking , hoping , dreaming.

I can get back to my same old life now for one more year, and enjoy what I have already.

[mygctracker]

OMG, I don't believe this.... This sucks...What a bummer! Gurus, Does anyone see any kind of bright side from this VB?

[03May07]

'qblogfan' any info to add from your site?

Congratulations to Q and to all those whose PD became current. (Looks like Q is off to his immunization appt.)

[Zoroark]

The PD will not cross June 1st, 2007 this FY year. Next real movement may be during May'12. c u all in 9 months.

[imechanix]

My source tells me there won't be any forward movement in this VB..I am real worried now..


Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

I guess both of your source are pretty close to reality.

[grnwtg]

Looking from the negative side, Does Guru's here think have any chance to move into early 2008 atleast by end of 2012?
Since there are lot of eb2 row and eb1 pending and apart from it more than expected portings, is there any chance that eb2 IC will see atleast 5000 to 10000 spill overs for next year?
personally with this depressing mood, i feel that dates might not cross July '2007 even by the end of 2012. Not sure my depressing mood is thinking...
Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy any input FY2012?

[gc0907]

I can get back to my same old life now for one more year, and enjoy what I have already.

Not yet, we still have Sept'11.

Sachin is Out but Yuvi is coming.

[pch053]

pch053,
Yes, EB2IC PD movement so far this year is exactly in-line with our initial estimates! Irrespective of September 2011 Visa Bulletin EB2I dates will settle down around JUN-JUL 2007 until next(FY2012) spillover season.

I think this bulletin also means that more number of EB1 and EB2-ROW will get approved this year and so the backlog from EB1 + EB2-ROW will be less for FY 2012. I think new EB1 (unless there is any change to Kazaran memo), EB2-ROW and EB3->EB2 porting for the coming year will be similar to the current year. So, the biggest 'tail wind' for EB2 forward movement will be ~5K PWMB cases. Assuming the EB2-I/C approval dates are around late May (or early June) in the Sep bulletin, then we will still have ~5K pending EB2-I/C cases + there will be around 5K PWMB + around 2K - 3K EB3-EB2 porting cases for the next year. To clear all EB2-I/C cases up to Aug'07 in FY'2012, I think we will require around 12K - 14K visas.

[familyguy]

I was wondering how did you get the bulletin in memo/pdf style... I think I figured out.. clicking on "View as Printer Friendly PDF" in the visa bulletin page will re direct to the PDF link...


http://travel.state.gov/pdf/visabulletin/VisaBulletin_August2011.pdf

[nishant2200]

The PD will not cross June 1st, 2007 this FY year. Next real movement may be during May'12. c u all in 9 months.

Zoroark, don't really just disappear. We need people to at least occasionally drop by and keep the flame going.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q/Spec/Teddy/Veni and others,
This bulletin might be in sync with the lower estimates of spillovers. As mentioned in the earlier posts, there can be anywhere between 3.6K - 9.6K spillovers available. This 5 weeks of movement will consume nearly ~2.5K - 3K spillovers. If we see similar movement in the Sep bulletin, the dates will be around late May'07 (or even 1st June) and that is still within the range of estimates that we have. I now see two possibilities in Sep bulletin: i) USCIS advances the dates drastically in Sep bulletin by appox 1 year (and then retrogresses in Oct or Nov bulletin) or ii) they advance another few weeks to months to consume the remaining spillovers available. This bulletin is a disappointing for sure but I still feel that there is a possibility of option (i). In the worst case, all PWMB and early - mid 2012 PDs will probably get a chance to file their I485 by March - April'2012. Any thoughts!

I almost completely agree with you. There has been ~ 3K totaling to 28K of movement by this bulletin and the best case maximum we could expect would be another 5K. Looks like the conservative calculation of 33K SOFAD will be either barely be satisfied or we may miss it by 2K. Realistically the dates may range from 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007. Most PWMB's will miss it again this year, as Spec had written earlier the dates may open only by May 2012, I hope they put in some thought about having the fresh intake a little earlier though. Even this year they started the SOFAD application much earlier than the last quarter. Since this scenario is unprecedented let’s wait and watch.


I think this bulletin also means that more number of EB1 and EB2-ROW will get approved this year and so the backlog from EB1 + EB2-ROW will be less for FY 2012. I think new EB1 (unless there is any change to Kazaran memo), EB2-ROW and EB3->EB2 porting for the coming year will be similar to the current year. So, the biggest 'tail wind' for EB2 forward movement will be ~5K PWMB cases. Assuming the EB2-I/C approval dates are around late May (or early June) in the Sep bulletin, then we will still have ~5K pending EB2-I/C cases + there will be around 5K PWMB + around 2K - 3K EB3-EB2 porting cases for the next year. To clear all EB2-I/C cases up to Aug'07 in FY'2012, I think we will require around 12K - 14K visas.

Completely agree with you, well said.

[ssvp22]

Zoroark, don't really just disappear. We need people to at least occasionally drop by and keep the flame going.

I will be here. And hopefully so would be quite a few others.

[beeooh]

Not the best of the days for many on this forum, But I've just joined the forum and was wondering why is it that most of the movement happens in the summer every year, I have a vague understanding its the spillovers, But can somebody, not necessarily a Guru :) share their gyan on this aspect.
Thanks

[veni001]

I think this bulletin also means that more number of EB1 and EB2-ROW will get approved this year and so the backlog from EB1 + EB2-ROW will be less for FY 2012. I think new EB1 (unless there is any change to Kazaran memo), EB2-ROW and EB3->EB2 porting for the coming year will be similar to the current year. So, the biggest 'tail wind' for EB2 forward movement will be ~5K PWMB cases. Assuming the EB2-I/C approval dates are around late May (or early June) in the Sep bulletin, then we will still have ~5K pending EB2-I/C cases + there will be around 5K PWMB + around 2K - 3K EB3-EB2 porting cases for the next year. To clear all EB2-I/C cases up to Aug'07 in FY'2012, I think we will require around 12K - 14K visas.

pch053,
EB2IC should at least move to early/late July 2007 to see 5k PWMB.
If EB2IC stay at 15APR2007 in September'11 bulletin also, then USCIS will only see about 1.5k EB2IC-PWMB!

[Dojoapril]

How does someone with April18, 2007 PD react...?:D

[veni001]

How does someone with April18, 2007 PD react...?:D

Same as the one with 16April2007 PD, which is a Monday!

[03May07]

How does someone with April18, 2007 PD react...?:D

Yeah, let me know...so that I better be prepared if the date moves to 01 May 2007(as guru's have started predicting) in Sept bulletin.

[Gclongwait]

It isn't that bad guys. Just a few months ago may '07 was better than the best prediction and we probably will still hit that.

1. I am still very very hopeful that the dates will move into early 2008 (April/may) in the next bulletin and then retrogress in order to pre-adjudicate for next year since next year for sure the current backlog will clear. I thought they may move in this bulletin since if they could clear the AoS backlog this FY then CP could have used any leftover visas, but they don't seem to have enough visas.

2. Its a little disappointing for people with PD's in June/July '07 since it looks like they are going to just miss it, but for people with PD's ahead of July '07 it was always a long shot this year.

3. If they have restricted the movement to provide visas to EB2ROW and EB1 (not sure of that but that's what folks here are saying), that in the long run is a good thing since restricting categories that are current to provide visas to IC will cause more delays in the future. Your viewpoint on this may depend upon where your PD is.

Also, Since 2006 and 2007 are the same as far as Perm is concerned, all things remaining the same can we expect the same movement next year, of about 1 year? Maybe too early to say that....

[TeluguBidda]

Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, pch and other Experts,

After looking at the August Bulletin, do you think there is a possibility that Visa #s for this fiscal year would be exhausted in August itself? I know of a few cases last year when they were current in July, did not get approved until September and finally they were told by local offices and USCIS service centers that no more visa #s are available.

My PD is 11/29/2006, transferred from VSC to TSC in 2007. God knows what is going on although I have been fortunate enough to know via InfoPass that it has been pre-adjudicated in 2009. I am now scared with the dreaded possibility of not hearing anything until August and then finally they tell me that no more Visa #s are available? Can you please advise on the overall issue as it would benefit everyone. Thank you.

[Pdmar08]

How does someone with April18, 2007 PD react...?:D

Aaaiga...nem chukala

[rough translation] Darn it ...missed it

[Read in the tone of hindi cricket commentator] Ek aur jhandi ka patan

[Rough translation] another one bites the dust.(though in a sad way)

Just trying to lighten the mood guys...i know its depressing, whats more depressing is light at the end of the tunnel is may 2012. shouldnt be complaining, i know people have been waiting for long. But what happened since morning is a testament to the saying the world lives on hope.

[qesehmk]

I second ChampU's thoughts, and would like to help in any way possible, monetory or technical. No effort should go in vain, to help keep this site running. I, personally have learnt much from this site, than from any other sources.
Thanks lprseeker. Appreciate it. Will count on you should we need something.


My life was on pause since last few months. My daughter and wife saying something, I was occupied on iPhone reading information and websites. thinking , hoping , dreaming.
I can get back to my same old life now for one more year, and enjoy what I have already.
Couldn't be said any better what you just said here.


OMG, I don't believe this.... This sucks...What a bummer! Gurus, Does anyone see any kind of bright side from this VB?
The silven line is that Sep is yet to come and secondly any bad news this year reduces the bad news next year.


'qblogfan' any info to add from your site?
Congratulations to Q and to all those whose PD became current. (Looks like Q is off to his immunization appt.)
Thanks 3M and all others for their wishes. Appreciate it. I will be around regardless.


Looking from the negative side, Does Guru's here think have any chance to move into early 2008 atleast by end of 2012?
Since there are lot of eb2 row and eb1 pending and apart from it more than expected portings, is there any chance that eb2 IC will see atleast 5000 to 10000 spill overs for next year?
personally with this depressing mood, i feel that dates might not cross July '2007 even by the end of 2012. Not sure my depressing mood is thinking...
Q, Veni, Spec, Teddy any input FY2012?
Next year as I said the low end for SOFAD is 12-15K. But with this bad news .. I would bump it up to at least 20K. I know that also is not assuring for those waiting to file 485. Unfortunately don't want to create false hope.


Not yet, we still have Sept'11.
Sachin is Out but Yuvi is coming.
Its more like bhajji. The bulletin could be a dark horse or could be a bummer.


In general, if there is going to be any movement in September then the EB2 ROW and EB1 consumption shouldn't be too high during July. That's our only hope for any further movement in September. So we will keep watching trackitt and update our thinking on whether Sep will bring any further good news.

[kpt112107]

Does this bulletin proves all our calculations are wrong????????????????

[neospeed]

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36095

I-140 Validity and Portability
�� AC21 §106(c)
�� Matter of Al Wazzan
o Application for “same or similar” adjudication
�� USCIS is considering a proposal to require aliens to file an application
with fee for adjudication by USCIS to determine whether the new position
is in the “same or similar” occupational classification which could be
adjudicated prior to the adjustment application greatly benefitting visa
regressed cases;

does it mean no need to file new perm and I-140 when moved to different employer?

[qesehmk]

Q, Spec, Teddy, Veni, pch and other Experts,

After looking at the August Bulletin, do you think there is a possibility that Visa #s for this fiscal year would be exhausted in August itself? I know of a few cases last year when they were current in July, did not get approved until September and finally they were told by local offices and USCIS service centers that no more visa #s are available.

My PD is 11/29/2006, transferred from VSC to TSC in 2007. God knows what is going on although I have been fortunate enough to know via InfoPass that it has been pre-adjudicated in 2009. I am now scared with the dreaded possibility of not hearing anything until August and then finally they tell me that no more Visa #s are available? Can you please advise on the overall issue as it would benefit everyone. Thank you.

Given what an excellent visibility exists to the demand, I would say the chance of wasting visas or running out of visas is extremely small.

[Pdmar08]

also Q ...congrats and congrats to all others who got current.

[gcq]

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=36095

I-140 Validity and Portability
.....
o Application for “same or similar” adjudication
...................
does it mean no need to file new perm and I-140 when moved to different employer ?
I don't think they are referring to filing a separate perm and I-140. As of now there is no formal way to file AC21. This proposal may introduce a formal form and fees to file AC21.

[leo07]

You can feel a lil better than the 15th April 2007 folks:)

How does someone with April18, 2007 PD react...?:D

[TeluguBidda]

Given what an excellent visibility exists to the demand, I would say the chance of wasting visas or running out of visas is extremely small.

Thanks Q. When you said, "given what an excellent visibility exists to the demand", I hope you did not mean anything sarcastic :) I am sure you were depressed like many others (including myself) seeing the August visa bulletin.

On a side note, it is depressing to note that both NSC and TSC are approving cases in a completely random fashion. Sucks big time ! People who have filed I-485s after me are approved, people who have PDs weeks / months after me are approved.

[bieber]

Q

congrats

I think the chances of dates going beyond 2007 July is almost none, obviously buliding pipeline is something they may not consider until the reality hits. Bad news for PWMB, may be this fy will settle at May1,2007 and till May2012 the dates may reach Aug2007 and the only choice will be making EBIC Current or atleast pushing it to 2010/2011 to approve all the CP cases and send the spillover to EB3

[leo07]

Demand Data that's released yesterday shows that there's a 10.5 k demand still with CIS.
Add another 3 k for this 5 week movement.
Add another 250-500 porting cases + Misc

This will bring inventory to 14 K. Unless DOS has anything closer to 10k visas in kitty for September, I'd be surprised to see any movement. It's not DOS+CIS's job to build inventory, at least that's what they appeared to convey with VB movement this time. may be I turned pessimistic with the outcome or through shear despair:(

[gchopeful123]

Can it be that USCIS is just trying to play it safe for this month so that they can open a mini floodgate (for PDs till early 2008) next month?

I still cant make sense of why people are saying that we have to wait until May 2012 for further movement? That would be weird isn't it because the USCIS would have no EB2 demand in the pipeline (because no I-485s have been filed after Jul/Aug 2007)? So how will they use the usual EB2 visa numbers for 2012 + any spillovers if there is nothing in the pipeline - it is taking at least 6 months for I-485 to be adjudicated.

[bieber]

Can it be that USCIS is just trying to play it safe for this month so that they can open a mini floodgate (for PDs till early 2008) next month?

I still cant make sense of why people are saying that we have to wait until May 2012 for further movement? That would be weird isn't it because the USCIS would have no EB2 demand in the pipeline (because no I-485s have been filed after Jul/Aug 2007)? So how will they use the usual EB2 visa numbers for 2012 + any spillovers if there is nothing in the pipeline - it is taking at least 6 months for I-485 to be adjudicated.
The difference is you are assuming there will be spillover in next year and DOS/CIS will not assume that till they see atleast 2 quarters and confirm

everyone used to say July but this year it all started in May, so hope they will do it sooner than May in next year and that would give may be enough time to use the spillover for EB2

[ssvp22]

also Q ...congrats and congrats to all others who got current.
Wish the same from my side.

[sha_kus]

gurus i have questions now.... lets assume some small movements happens next month and china's remaining demand goes below 2800 yearly quota in October. Will it be considered as ROW for some time... Even though i am assuming this to happen to india at later stage.. Will EB2-I also be considered EB2 - ROW for atleast some time.... obviously there will be no EB2 -ROW if this thing really happens...

[grnwtg]

Thanks lprseeker. Appreciate it. Will count on you should we need something.


Couldn't be said any better what you just said here.


The silven line is that Sep is yet to come and secondly any bad news this year reduces the bad news next year.


Thanks 3M and all others for their wishes. Appreciate it. I will be around regardless.


Next year as I said the low end for SOFAD is 12-15K. But with this bad news .. I would bump it up to at least 20K. I know that also is not assuring for those waiting to file 485. Unfortunately don't want to create false hope.


Its more like bhajji. The bulletin could be a dark horse or could be a bummer.


In general, if there is going to be any movement in September then the EB2 ROW and EB1 consumption shouldn't be too high during July. That's our only hope for any further movement in September. So we will keep watching trackitt and update our thinking on whether Sep will bring any further good news.


Thanks Q, atleast good to hear 10-15k will be low end of spill overs for next year, which says that people in early 2008 do have chance to get EAD atleast end of next year.

[velugc]

"Apirl Fool" may be now it should be changed as "Augest Fool"... USCIS restored the same site and paying hide and seek.. no changes what so ever.. lets hold on and wait till next bullitin to know if the there is going to be a full \ mini \ No flood gates open...:(

[Spectator]

gurus i have questions now.... lets assume some small movements happens next month and china's remaining demand goes below 2800 yearly quota in October. Will it be considered as ROW for some time... Even though i am assuming this to happen to india at later stage.. Will EB2-I also be considered EB2 - ROW for atleast some time.... obviously there will be no EB2 -ROW if this thing really happens...sha_kus,

No, because China is shown as an individual Country due to its expected usage in FB & EB. That won't change.

As this year, whilst Countries are using their initial 7% allocation, we might expect the EB2-C Cut Off Date to advance more rapidly than EB2-I at the beginning of FY2012 because they have the same number of visas available as EB2-I but less cases per month.

Once EB2-C starts using spillover visas next year, they will share the same Cut Off Date as EB2-I.

[Spectator]

Q,

Now the hiatus has finally died down, I can finally congratulate you on becoming Current from 01 August.

Wishing you a short wait until they pick up your case and approve it!

[kkurasa]

Here goes my first post after following this blog for quite sometime now.

Congrats to all those folks who got current with the latest VB.

As far as to why dates haven't moved that well, I know folks have been giving their thoughts on the same but does the current state of the economy have anything to do with being cautious about the dates ? Perhaps they didn't want to get too aggressive with the dates and cause a stir.

On the other hand, we have to accept the reality that dates might not make more jumps as good as we have seen the last few VB's.

Now that the VB has come out wonder what the Guru's of this forum think about the number crunching and what can we expect in the next few VB.

Cheers,
KK

[qesehmk]

Thanks Q. When you said, "given what an excellent visibility exists to the demand", I hope you did not mean anything sarcastic :) I am sure you were depressed like many others (including myself) seeing the August visa bulletin.

On a side note, it is depressing to note that both NSC and TSC are approving cases in a completely random fashion. Sucks big time ! People who have filed I-485s after me are approved, people who have PDs weeks / months after me are approved.
No I was not sarcastic. Strict FIFO will not happen for multiple reasons. But if your date is current then you should get it within a month max. Otherwise its a problem.



gurus i have questions now.... lets assume some small movements happens next month and china's remaining demand goes below 2800 yearly quota in October. Will it be considered as ROW for some time... Even though i am assuming this to happen to india at later stage.. Will EB2-I also be considered EB2 - ROW for atleast some time.... obviously there will be no EB2 -ROW if this thing really happens...
Spec answered this. The only thing I would correct is that China will actually see faster date movements simply because their demand is thinner than India. And then again May 2012 onwards India and China will catch together.


Thanks Q, atleast good to hear 10-15k will be low end of spill overs for next year, which says that people in early 2008 do have chance to get EAD atleast end of next year. 100% chance that people until Q1 2008 will be able to file 485 by Sep 2012.

[pch053]

Q,
Also, a big thank to your source for such accurate feedback on visa bulletins. The predictions have been spot on for the last couple of bulletins. Hope we will get similar input in future too and wishing you a quick GC approval!