EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[pg_at_q]

I believe the range will be 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007 with 6K to 8K numbers being allocated.

Teddy, apologize if this has been answered before...but did your numerical analysis had the assumption that all the cases before this date range have been adjudicated a visa number? Certainly you can see that there are a lot of people who've not been approved from 2006 and before in EB2 category. I am assuming that's because their 485 had some delays due to either background-check/finger-printing/medical etc.

Also, there isn't any way to know how many of the visa numbers have already been allocated thus far this FY, correct?

[qesehmk]

I just did a simple test to check if all cases are preadjudicated positively. Just check how many EB2I cases are approved this year on trackitt and what %is denied.

The result is less than 1% denials for all EB2I approvals this year. Of that one case is a clear mistake on behalf of USCIS and the other is a possible mistake.

So in nutshell, there is 99% chance that every backlogged EB2IC case is positively preadjudicated and all one has to do is sit back and wait to become current.


Teddy, apologize if this has been answered before...but did your numerical analysis had the assumption that all the cases before this date range have been adjudicated a visa number? Certainly you can see that there are a lot of people who've not been approved from 2006 and before in EB2 category. I am assuming that's because their 485 had some delays due to either background-check/finger-printing/medical etc.

Also, there isn't any way to know how many of the visa numbers have already been allocated thus far this FY, correct?

[pg_at_q]

I just did a simple test to check if all cases are preadjudicated positively. Just check how many EB2I cases are approved this year on trackitt and what %is denied.

The result is less than 1% denials for all EB2I approvals this year. Of that one case is a clear mistake on behalf of USCIS and the other is a possible mistake.

So in nutshell, there is 99% chance that every backlogged EB2IC case is positively preadjudicated and all one has to do is sit back and wait to become current.

Hey Q, thanks for replying. You are doing a great service to our community!

Actually my question was not probing denials of 485's, but just that I see a lot of cases in 2006/07 which are possibly pre-adjudicated but not approved for green card yet. This could becoz these people are stuck with namecheck/background/finger-printing etc. It may be likely that they may be given a visa number this year, or it's possible they are not.

For the case they are not, i.e they are not adjudicated, wouldn't DoS have to move dates farther so the next guy in queue who has everything ready can be adjudicated?

My question to Teddy was if these kind of cases were included in his numerical analysis.

[haripathhi]

I guess someone answered this question of yours a few pages back. I believe the answer was that in such cases, these particular visa numbers may get wasted. Gurus, please correct me if I am wrong.


Hey Q, thanks for replying. You are doing a great service to our community!

Actually my question was not probing denials of 485's, but just that I see a lot of cases in 2006/07 which are possibly pre-adjudicated but not approved for green card yet. This could becoz these people are stuck with namecheck/background/finger-printing etc. It may be likely that they may be given a visa number this year, or it's possible they are not.

For the case they are not, i.e they are not adjudicated, wouldn't DoS have to move dates farther so the next guy in queue who has everything ready can be adjudicated?

My question to Teddy was if these kind of cases were included in his numerical analysis.

[qesehmk]

Let wait to hear from Teddy then.

But generally this number would be miniscule. I wouldn't worry about it. These numbers would already be factored into the dates movement, so I wouldn't count on any upside because of tehse kind of cases.

p.s. - A lot of people here are helping by sharing. I am also doing my bit.


Hey Q, thanks for replying. You are doing a great service to our community!

Actually my question was not probing denials of 485's, but just that I see a lot of cases in 2006/07 which are possibly pre-adjudicated but not approved for green card yet. This could becoz these people are stuck with namecheck/background/finger-printing etc. It may be likely that they may be given a visa number this year, or it's possible they are not.

For the case they are not, i.e they are not adjudicated, wouldn't DoS have to move dates farther so the next guy in queue who has everything ready can be adjudicated?

My question to Teddy was if these kind of cases were included in his numerical analysis.


I guess someone answered this question of yours a few pages back. I believe the answer was that in such cases, these particular visa numbers may get wasted. Gurus, please correct me if I am wrong.
I would tend to disagree that the numbers will be wasted. Its hard to imagine with ssuch a large preadjudicated backlog any number will be wasted.

[skpanda]

Q.. any news from your source... on date movement. Thanks!

[kd2008]

People who have received approvals/cards etc have started updating trackitt I-485 tracker. Good to see that.

The status update system of emails/sms etc seems to be out of service for now.

[cbpds1]

Q.. any news from your source... on date movement. Thanks!

Q has replied that visa bulletin will come on next wed/thu

[Jan2008]

I came across this website while searching for details on VB's and was amazed to see the amount of data you guys have up here.. Amazing!!

PD in Jan 2008.. Waiting to see some light at the end of the tunnel :-)

Great job you guys.. Specially Q :-)

[ssvp22]

Trackitt is now showing 6 approvals for EB2 India on 7/1/2011.

[vipulgupta470]

Guys - now that EB2 PDs are moving fast - it has made me join my first immigration forum and I found this one to be the most informative and accurate..Great work guys.
Now the million dollar question - My EB2 PD is Feb 27, 2008 - Should I expect something +ve before the end of FY 2011?

[belmontboy]

Q has replied that visa bulletin will come on next wed/thu

Question to Q: Has the source commented on probable date movement?

[pch053]

Trackitt is now showing 6 approvals for EB2 India on 7/1/2011.

Plus, there is at least 1 (maybe 2) person without a trackitt profile that posted in one of the threads saying that s/he has gotten I485 approval in July. Lets hope for more approvals in the coming week.

As of late Thurs (7/7) evening, 8 approvals in trackitt for 1st July + a couple of cases (with no trackitt profiles) reported in separate threads + 3 (or more) approvals reported separately in IV.

[dec2007]

Guys - now that EB2 PDs are moving fast - it has made me join my first immigration forum and I found this one to be the most informative and accurate..Great work guys.
Now the million dollar question - My EB2 PD is Feb 27, 2008 - Should I expect something +ve before the end of FY 2011?

Vipul,
Please read few pages back or the header. As mentioned earlier few times by Q and others, it is difficult to give response to individual cases.

[vipulgupta470]

That was quite a disappointing reply to my first ever post..and you spent few minutes in saying I dont want to answer..you could have not answered instead..
I have already read 146 pages but still would have liked someone (preferably gurus) to reply if they ever get a chance..else pls ignore!

[ssvp22]

That was quite a disappointing reply to my first ever post..and you spent few minutes in saying I dont want to answer..you could have not answered instead..
I have already read 146 pages but still would have liked someone (preferably gurus) to reply if they ever get a chance..else pls ignore!
Jo chauka udta jai use chakka kehte hain(courtesy Aamir Khan). Problem is we dont know if its going to be a chauka. If it is, chakka to Q1 2008 is possible.

[vipulgupta470]

you are a "guru" for me ssvp22..thats what we all want to hear..even if it doesnt happen :-)

[svbmanian]

most of the approvals in July are from TSC ,so may be the trackitt is not getting updated :-) , if TSC is approving dates from oct to feb, the other service center should also catch up. is it not ?

[sandeep11]

Vipul,

If you are extremely lucky you might be current this FY. We are all anxious as your are.

To be more precise for your understanding:

-With the numbers available for this FY (based on the experts' calculations in this forum) USCIS can easily come close to June or Aug 2007 PDs. As per Q this range could be anywhere between June-August 2007.
- If at all USCIS/DOS decides to build an inventory for the next FY they might ('they might') advance the dates into first quarter of 2008. This has to be taken with a grain of salt, it is upto their policy to decide if they would move dates well in advance and have applications and have them ready for the next FY (reg numbers + Spill Overs) or if they would only move it slowly in the next FY or wait until the 3/4Q of next FY before they advance the dates.

We believe and hope that 'they might' want to build an inventory for the next FY for the reason that they don't have enough numbers to calculate the demand data post July 2007. To ensure that they don't waste any numbers ( regular numbers+spillover numbers if any) next FY and to coordinate efficiently with DOS to move dates they need to build an inventory for themselves. But again this purely at their discretion. One other point that added fuel to this duscussion is the NVC notices that were sent to people (who opted for CP processing) with PD of April 2008 and in one case June or Oct of 2008.

Hope this helps answering your question and expectations. We all are in the same boat as yours. Good Luck.

-Sandy.






That was quite a disappointing reply to my first ever post..and you spent few minutes in saying I dont want to answer..you could have not answered instead..
I have already read 146 pages but still would have liked someone (preferably gurus) to reply if they ever get a chance..else pls ignore!

[qesehmk]

Nope. Nothing yet. But I think Teddy Spec and of course myself are in agreement that probably 8K is what is left and so may be Jun 2007 should be quite possible.

Question to Q: Has the source commented on probable date movement?


Guys - now that EB2 PDs are moving fast - it has made me join my first immigration forum and I found this one to be the most informative and accurate..Great work guys.
Now the million dollar question - My EB2 PD is Feb 27, 2008 - Should I expect something +ve before the end of FY 2011?
Since you read 140 odd pages (!!) - there is some probability the date will current in Sep 2011 but a very good probability that it will be current in Oct 2011.


I saw lots people joining today. Welcome everybody. Just a small request - if you want to acknolwedge this forum then please feel free to do so. But when people acknowledge me personally its a bit awkward since neither this work nor the work we did at IV was an individual effort. Probably I should change the name of the website. Please feel free to send me suggestions.

[ssvp22]

Probably I should change the name of the website. Please feel free to send me suggestions.
Domain name changes are a mess. Personally, i am okay with the domain name.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hey Q, thanks for replying. You are doing a great service to our community!

Actually my question was not probing denials of 485's, but just that I see a lot of cases in 2006/07 which are possibly pre-adjudicated but not approved for green card yet. This could becoz these people are stuck with namecheck/background/finger-printing etc. It may be likely that they may be given a visa number this year, or it's possible they are not.

For the case they are not, i.e they are not adjudicated, wouldn't DoS have to move dates farther so the next guy in queue who has everything ready can be adjudicated?

My question to Teddy was if these kind of cases were included in his numerical analysis.


Teddy, apologize if this has been answered before...but did your numerical analysis had the assumption that all the cases before this date range have been adjudicated a visa number? Certainly you can see that there are a lot of people who've not been approved from 2006 and before in EB2 category. I am assuming that's because their 485 had some delays due to either background-check/finger-printing/medical etc.

Also, there isn't any way to know how many of the visa numbers have already been allocated thus far this FY, correct?

Let me try to answer your question in a couple of ways let me know if I understood correctly.
- Actually on Trackitt people would update their case for RFE and never come back to update that it is resolved. I had done some research on 2004 EB2 data ideally all cases with this PD should have been approved I figured out based on that 15-20% cases people do not update approvals. So in reality these cases are approved but not closed on Trackitt.
- Now coming to old cases in general if we look at the latest inventor cases prior to May 2006 are less than 1000, in reality half of them maybe PD porting, so now hen the dates are moving forward its almost water tight they are in fact approving every case that can possibly be approved.
- Name check and background check is an issue primarily for those who belong to countries of interest. Unfortunately genuinely good people have been held ransom for years; all these countries are part of ROW.
- The trackitt research I did today was pretty high level it assumed a 0 denial rate for 485 it was all cases for Eb2 India current this July V/S all cases current last July. The summary is that the Trackitt representation for those current in Jul 2011 is far less than Jul 2010 so fewer approvals probably 1/3rd might mean the same but because of the general online systems failure we do not see much at all this year.
- In the Trackitt prediction model that I have also in facts and data I have used a starting offset of 2000 which actually accounts for the old cases, these cases go away very slowly so for monthly VB projections we can ignore them.
- As Q has reiterated as well I also believe that realistically only 8K more SOFAD is left, this number is unfortunately not backed by a very sound calculation but it is what SOFAD was projected by calculation minus what has been allocated in approximation.

[TeddyKoochu]

I proposed this theory a while back that their IT systems maybe down, never thought it maybe closer to reality as much.

I saw this post by a user on trackitt, reading which shows that there is great chance above is true, they say they are getting tons of calls from people.

"I called USCIS and the customer rep. clearly told me that they are not going to transfer calls to Tier2 because apparently they have been inundated with calls all day asking them to transfer to tier 2. All she said is she can open an SR which I had already done on July 1. She did look at the details of that SR and tell me that the case has been transferred to a service center but no officer has been assigned to it yet to look at it. I was glad that she was able to give me that information. I think now I am going to wait until July 29 before I call them again. I absolutely felt guilty for calling them and bothering them and/or wasting their time because she kept repeating over and over that they have been getting calls all day asking for transfer to tier 2. I was very polite and she was too but she just kept repeating the same things over and over. I felt sorry for the woman.

Good luck to everyone. I think I am just going to take it easy now and drink my cup of chai :)!"

Nishant I remember you were the first one to say this looks like something is really not functional, even though that release was planned for later the online system has either just crashed or its not showing any updates. Thanks for posting the latest update.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nope. Nothing yet. But I think Teddy Spec and of course myself are in agreement that probably 8K is what is left and so may be Jun 2007 should be quite possible.



Friends If I may just add to what Q has said, most of the movement should come by in the Aug bulletin itself the September bulletin in all likelihood would just be a finishing touch or intake of fresh demand (This is completely in the hypothetical domain). The real numerical allocation that would count toward approvals will likely happen in Aug.

[pch053]

Just adding to Teddy's excellent summary: we need ~11K to clear all pending I485 cases. If 8K spillovers is still available, the the PDs that will be cleared will be around end of June'07 to 1st week of July'07 time frame. Any more spill over visas (if available) than 8K will clear July - Aug'07 PDs. So, to sum up, as of now we know the following (this probably has been mentioned in many earlier posts, but I am just reiterating the conclusion):
i) EB2-I/C PDs anywhere up to June - Aug'07 will be cleared by the end of this year
ii) Any further visa movement will be dictated by USCIS policy of how they want to build a buffer of applications for approving in future.

[Zoroark]

Prediction
August Bulletin - May 8, 2007

[pravara]

Domain name changes are a mess. Personally, i am okay with the domain name.

IMO, a catchy domain would definitely be easier to spread by word of mouth. However, you can simply use that to direct to this existing domain and not touch a thing.

[shivarajan]

+1 on domain name change.

"why?"

Once i lost my bookmark and just struggled to spell domain name correctly (given Google is yet to do spell corrections for this site).

Before suggestions come in, please check if the domain name is available.

;)

[victorian]

Probably I should change the name of the website. Please feel free to send me suggestions.
BTW, What does the current name mean? It is quite cryptic :)

[Monica12]

IMO, a catchy domain would definitely be easier to spread by word of mouth. However, you can simply use that to direct to this existing domain and not touch a thing.

Q, I agree with Pravara, don't change this domain name. Just create a new catchy one and simply use the new name to direct to this existing domain. That is what most people do these days :)

[vckomara]

I have been quietly following the forum too. I too agree the domain name is a bit mysterious. I bookmarked this on my work computer which I check regularly but I was travelling for days and wanted to check on my ipad, I had no idea how to find this website, had to use 10 different keywords in Google without success, finally I was successful with the search string "EB2 calculations Teddy, Vani, Spec, Q" :), Sorry if I omitted some key contributors in the search:).

[vishnu]

q's immigration blog is good enough - among first sites on google search results, so this page has a high search rank.

[TeddyKoochu]

Nishant I remember you were the first one to say this looks like something is really not functional, even though that release was planned for later the online system has either just crashed or its not showing any updates. Thanks for posting the latest update.

Friends there are reports at many places now that the online systems are working atleast for EAD / AP, even Trackitt approvals are picking up now. Just saw a report on IV, User - abhay "My online status got changed after 2 Plus years, Now it says post decision activities and I got email and SMS last night. I think they are fixing the online system.
".

[la_2002_ch]

I have been a mute spectator so far... but please dont change the domain name. It represents a legacy started way back at IV. This blog can be easily searched in google as well.

[imdeng]

My first post here - with a suggestion - the domain name eb2predictions.com is available. If we get that and auto forward to the current domain then we have an intuitive domain name and the legacy name continues as well.

[nishant2200]

Friends there are reports at many places now that the online systems are working atleast for EAD / AP, even Trackitt approvals are picking up now. Just saw a report on IV, User - abhay "My online status got changed after 2 Plus years, Now it says post decision activities and I got email and SMS last night. I think they are fixing the online system.
".

Yes trackitt definitely picking up steam now. One guy put approval date as 7/7 but I believe it is also 7/1 since he got the cards also on 7/7, can't get on same day.

I know from designing similar e-mail notification alerts system, albeit on a smaller scale as compared to USCIS, it's not easy. A lot of things can go wrong, and mail servers are notorious.

I see people with february 27th 2007 getting approved. Although I am not even in yet, I feel like crying tears of joy, in my lifetime, I see people in same year as me getting green cards.

[kpt112107]

To imdeng,
But we are discussing lot of things here..not only EB2 predictions...
We may need to make more generalized....

[bieber]

I voted for 'do nothing'

Q, I think eventhough it's team effort, you initiated the site and everybody is participating. As long as, Teddy/Spec/Veni don't mind, domain name should stay same.

I see many new users suggesting the name change and understandable because it took long time for them to know about our site, I'm sure they don't consider this after couple of weeks

[saky007]

3. I-485 Approval Possibility Issues: Job Changes

Due to forward movement in EB2 India and China Visa Bulletin cutoff dates, many EB2 applicants became eligible for approval during July 2011. The immigrant community is abuzz with the excited prospect of finally receiving approvals for applications for adjustment of status (I-485s, or "green cards") filed long ago. The wonderful news of the forward movement of priority dates for July and August 2011 has resulted in some questions and topics for consideration.

The above was posted in the Murthy bulletin that came out today. Not sure if the reference to forward movement in August 2011 is a typo or if they have some inside information pertaining to the Aug 2011 movement.

[kolugc]

I been googling regarding EB2 or GC or any immigration related information for that past 2-3 years and never found this site & I don't blame anybody for this. The only sensible site i found so far was http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html. Though I use to follow murthy, trackitt etc if I need more information.

But once I found this site, I was really excited to learn more information and also understand how many of these numbers work. I was really impressed myself. I always thought why I haven't found this site earlier. Name of the site is good and unique.

If domain name is bit more SEO friendly, I was hoping many more people like us can be educated and can help to spread these very useful information across.

Just a thought and also I am very new here, may be a month old here & so I might not be very right with my suggestions...

[grnwtg]

It was difficult to pass on this site to my friends, even though i asked to search it on google, for some reason many of them failed and they call me.
It would be good if we keep this for few months but create a new name and redirect to this site as is ( i mean we should be able to use both the names for couple of months or longer based on cost), But i am not sure how costly it will be.
I definetly agree with beiber that since Q has initiated this, his name should be apt but i suggest that if new new name is created, any way " Q's Immigration Blog" exists on the top of the page.

[PD1006]

Received approval notice alert via e-mail today
Approval date seems to be July 5 - note says they mailed us a notice of approval
EB2I - PD 17 Oct 2006
Filed at TSC

[angryclubs]

Received approval notice alert via e-mail today
Approval date seems to be July 5 - note says they mailed us a notice of approval
EB2I - PD 17 Oct 2006
Filed at TSC

Congrats PD1006!

[TeddyKoochu]

I voted for 'do nothing'

Q, I think eventhough it's team effort, you initiated the site and everybody is participating. As long as, Teddy/Spec/Veni don't mind, domain name should stay same.

I see many new users suggesting the name change and understandable because it took long time for them to know about our site, I'm sure they don't consider this after couple of weeks

Bieber, I also voted for the no change option. I believe its entirely upto Q to decide. However if there is a more generic domain and site title then yes it may be changed by Q, the only thing I hope is that no members / people are lost in the process. I believe a lot of people found about this forum by doing a search for "QESEHMK" so if a redirect can be setup it will really help or if the new site is somehow searchable by "QESEHMK". It is very generous of yourself, others and Q to give me any credit. Visiting immigration forums has almost become a part of life now for me since atleast 2 years.

[grnwtg]

Received approval notice alert via e-mail today
Approval date seems to be July 5 - note says they mailed us a notice of approval
EB2I - PD 17 Oct 2006
Filed at TSC

Congrats!!! Looks like we are seeing more number on trackitt too, i see that they are totally 18 approvals and earliest date approved is feb 27 2007. So happy to see 2007 on approval list.

[vizcard]

In your case.......
Your wife is on H1 and you are using AC21. So there is no question arising of she converting from H1 to H4 ever, because she cannot !
Unless you get current, she will have to stop working after usage of 6 years of H1. Even worse she might have to go out of US between the period of her H1 expiration and 485 application(because H4 is not an option for her - as you are no longer on H1).

Best thing is to change to employer who could file for her PERM seperately... that way she can keep working on H1 until you file 485 for her.
-------------------------

Why do you say I am not on H1 ?

Let me clarify, I am on H1 right now (extended beyond the 6 yrs for another 3 yrs according to the AC21 rules 106 or something like that). She is on H1 right now and MAY need to change to H4 before her H1 expires. There is absolutely nothing that prevents her from doing this. She can stay on H4 till I become current as I will be on H1 till I become current.

The basic question was when I do file my 485, will she get an EAD along with me. Her status potentially could be H4 at that time.

[Monica12]

Bieber, I also voted for the no change option. I believe its entirely upto Q to decide. However if there is a more generic domain and site title then yes it may be changed by Q, the only thing I hope is that no members / people are lost in the process. I believe a lot of people found about this forum by doing a search for "QESEHMK" so if a redirect can be setup it will really help or if the new site is somehow searchable by "QESEHMK". It is very generous of yourself, others and Q to give me any credit. Visiting immigration forums has almost become a part of life now for me since atleast 2 years.

I agree 100 % with Teddy. It should be left to Q on what should be done, knowing him he would consult with Vini, Teddy, Spec and others who have been the biggest contributors to this forum.
The important thing is none of the old members/forum followers should be lost. If a redirect can be arranged, it would be great.
This is indeed the best source of info for people like us. Great job everyone!! BRAVO !!!!

[Spectator]

Q,

When you next update the front page, please also change my figures in the jpg as follows:

Avge. -- EB3->2+PWMB -- Net SOFAD -- Low -- High
35.0 ------- 5.0 --------- 30.0 --- 33.0 -- 38.0

I voted Do Nothing.

A redirect from a friendly name would be my second option, but that costs money and reduces the donations to good causes, unless the traffic is much higher.

On Google, the search term "Q Immigration" gives the third result and "Q Immigration Calculations" gives the second result.

Terms such as "Q Forum" or "Q Blog" do not return results on the first page, but as soon as the term "Immigration" is also included, the results become #3 and #1 respectively.

[GCDespo]

"Q s EB2 predictions" gives first result . "EB2 Predictions "gives the
third result.

[ssvp22]

Although I am not even in yet, I feel like crying tears of joy, in my lifetime, I see people in same year as me getting green cards.
You are not alone, friend. I hope we get through soon and lead a normal life.

[TeddyKoochu]

You are not alone, friend. I hope we get through soon and lead a normal life.

Guys + 1 even I have exactly the same feeling, the Jul bulletin was the game changer that brought is straight to 2007. Even though I have not filed for 485 I definitely relieved now that the end is very much in sight.

[wantgcnow]

I only hope it would go well into 2008

[soggadu]

Q,

Can you plan for a tracker like trackitt... I vote for doing nothing name wise...

[imechanix]

Guys + 1 even I have exactly the same feeling, the Jul bulletin was the game changer that brought is straight to 2007. Even though I have not filed for 485 I definitely relieved now that the end is very much in sight.

Teddy & other PWMB's,

Finally, the end of the struggle is near soon. I hope you have your medicals done & ready to go. I just got it done (My PD June 07 & hoping to become current soon). It takes 20-30 days just to get immigration doctor's appointment. By the way, I did not have any vaccination records. They did a blood test & found antibodies present. So, I received only tetanus shot, my PPD was positive so the Dr. sent me to chest xray which was clear & marked Latent B TB which is ok. He did not write aything in Part 3 & 4 of the medical form.

Q,

I voted do nothing. I think people who have genuine interest in understanding visa allocation process & predictions will find this website by some way or other. Your forum is the least polluted & highly focused.

Thanks.

[MeraNoAayega]

Friends there are reports at many places now that the online systems are working atleast for EAD / AP, even Trackitt approvals are picking up now. Just saw a report on IV, User - abhay "My online status got changed after 2 Plus years, Now it says post decision activities and I got email and SMS last night. I think they are fixing the online system.
".

Even 485 approval emais/sms are working...:)

trackitt says 15 on 07/01 & 7 on 07/05....

[qesehmk]

Spec yes I did. Thank you.

1) Updated the head to reflect your numbers as well as current collective understanding.
2) Regarding name change.... so far people are favoring doing nothing. So if the trend continues the same, we will act immediately upon "Do Nothing"!! May be we can take down the poll in 2-3 days.
3) Last month I did submit the site to search engines that seems to have helped.



Q,

When you next update the front page, please also change my figures in the jpg as follows:

Avge. -- EB3->2+PWMB -- Net SOFAD -- Low -- High
35.0 ------- 5.0 --------- 30.0 --- 33.0 -- 38.0

I voted Do Nothing.

A redirect from a friendly name would be my second option, but that costs money and reduces the donations to good causes, unless the traffic is much higher.

On Google, the search term "Q Immigration" gives the third result and "Q Immigration Calculations" gives the second result.

Terms such as "Q Forum" or "Q Blog" do not return results on the first page, but as soon as the term "Immigration" is also included, the results become #3 and #1 respectively.


Q,
Can you plan for a tracker like trackitt... I vote for doing nothing name wise...

Soggadu, I think as long as trackitt keeps their data open, we can use it. Introducing a tracker would involve programming and customizing the vBulletin software which could be costly to code and then maintain.

p.s. sorry I didn't mean to say its not useful. Its just that we r running this site already in red.

[haripathhi]

Spec,

Well said! IMHO that's one factor that should be considered before going the redirect route. As always, you nailed it :)


Q,

When you next update the front page, please also change my figures in the jpg as follows:

Avge. -- EB3->2+PWMB -- Net SOFAD -- Low -- High
35.0 ------- 5.0 --------- 30.0 --- 33.0 -- 38.0

I voted Do Nothing.

A redirect from a friendly name would be my second option, but that costs money and reduces the donations to good causes, unless the traffic is much higher.

On Google, the search term "Q Immigration" gives the third result and "Q Immigration Calculations" gives the second result.

Terms such as "Q Forum" or "Q Blog" do not return results on the first page, but as soon as the term "Immigration" is also included, the results become #3 and #1 respectively.

[imdeng]

The fact is that this forum is quite difficult to find. I reached here only because Teddy's forum in IV mentioned the exact phrase to be googled. If the site starts becoming visible on search results for things like "EB2 Priority Date" or "EB2I PD Current" etc then there is no need to change anything. Even otherwise - I think people who need this info manage to find this site - the additional effort may not be worth the extra eyeballs.

[imdeng]

In case anyone ever had a doubt - Q's source was right - no VB on Fri.

I am intrigued by the lack of Demand Data for last two months. Why would USCIS go in data-hide-mode after sharing the same data for so long. Could it be that they are planning something that runs counter to the data - for example - extending PD beyond 07/07 while the data suggests that there are no more visa numbers available for doing that. Wishful thinking??

[qesehmk]

That is my hunch too! That is the reason I am thinking a 1 year forward and jump back movement is quite possible.


Why would USCIS go in data-hide-mode after sharing the same data for so long. Could it be that they are planning something that runs counter to the data ?

[Spectator]

In case anyone ever had a doubt - Q's source was right - no VB on Fri.

I am intrigued by the lack of Demand Data for last two months. Why would USCIS go in data-hide-mode after sharing the same data for so long. Could it be that they are planning something that runs counter to the data - for example - extending PD beyond 07/07 while the data suggests that there are no more visa numbers available for doing that. Wishful thinking??imdeng,

That is what I am thinking as well.

Sometimes visibility is not a good thing.

CO apparently said the failure to publish the data for July was due to other urgent business and that it would resume.

If the VB isn't being published until next week, it might be a little early to see the Demand Data anyway. It has been provided as late as the 15th of the month.

We'll see, but I wouldn't be surprised if we don't see it again this year.

[pch053]

As far as the demand data is concerned, I think it should be fine if they publish it Oct'11 or later. In that case, we will know the demand for the next year. Assuming they have filled in their buffer of new applications by moving the PD to 2008, we will also get a good feel of how the dates might move from May'12 and onwards. I think for this year, we pretty much know that the range of EB2I PDs that will be approved will be anywhere between June'07 - Aug'07.

[pdmarch282008]

After following this blog for so many weeks now, I finally took the plunge and registered myself. Like others here, this forum has been an amazing source of hope and fact driven information. Great work Q, Teddy and the others. I follow you guys on IV as well. I'd love to be supremely optimistic but knowing my luck I think I may have to wait for another year for my PD to be current. I'll be the happiest though if my PD becomes current in the next 2 months. I'll be celebrating 11 years iin America on the 26th of this month. The wait has been agonizing but it's been worse for many others. I always re-assure myself that if I am destined to get a green card, I will come what may. If I am not, I won't get one, no matter how hard I try. So why stress over it!!!

[haripathhi]

I have a similar question however, its slightly reversed. I am currently on H1-B w/ a pd of Nov, '07. My wife is on H4 visa. We are anticipating employment opportunity for my wife and her potential employer has already filed for her H1-B visa. My question is, when my date becomes current, I can file for my I485 along with my wife's application (hopefully she would be on H1-B visa then), Right?


Why do you say I am not on H1 ?

Let me clarify, I am on H1 right now (extended beyond the 6 yrs for another 3 yrs according to the AC21 rules 106 or something like that). She is on H1 right now and MAY need to change to H4 before her H1 expires. There is absolutely nothing that prevents her from doing this. She can stay on H4 till I become current as I will be on H1 till I become current.

The basic question was when I do file my 485, will she get an EAD along with me. Her status potentially could be H4 at that time.

[immitrickz]

Annual IV Waiting List Report document page 8 states that "approximately ninety percent of all Employment preference
immigrants are currently being processed as adjustment of status cases at CIS offices".

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

EB2IC totals 4,372 which equates to 10% of the total waiting list. The total waiting list (100%) would be 43,720.

But "EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates" Link: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf Updated on 5/10/2011
has 29,600 as the demand.

How can one account for ~14k discrepancy here? Appreciate if you throw more light on this one.


Thanks

[Spectator]

Annual IV Waiting List Report document page 8 states that "approximately ninety percent of all Employment preference
immigrants are currently being processed as adjustment of status cases at CIS offices".

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/WaitingListItem.pdf

EB2IC totals 4,372 which equates to 10% of the total waiting list. The total waiting list (100%) would be 43,720.

But "EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates" Link: http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf Updated on 5/10/2011
has 29,600 as the demand.

How can once account for ~14k discrepancy here? Appreciate if you throw more light on this one.

Thanksimmitrickz,

The NVC data is based on I-140 numbers received and dependents mentioned on them.

So the 4,372 is for all PDs of approved I-140 up to around October/ November 2010. Although received, most have not been processed to the point that they are considered "documentarily qualified". That only happens as the case approaches becoming Current.

On the other hand, the DOS demand data only shows demand for documentarily qualified cases (up to July/August 2007).

So it is comparing apples with oranges. Unfortunately, the NVC data is not further subdivided into year of PD.

PS It would be worse than you have calculated. For EB2, the CP rate historically is only 1-2%, so 4,372 would actually represent a much higher total figure (although the rate has probably increased for cases post the current backlog).

Calculations from the PERM data suggest, in the worst case, the number of I-485 still to be filed could be double the 44k you mention, although it is probably not quite that high.

[qesehmk]

Absolutely possible.

I have a similar question however, its slightly reversed. I am currently on H1-B w/ a pd of Nov, '07. My wife is on H4 visa. We are anticipating employment opportunity for my wife and her potential employer has already filed for her H1-B visa. My question is, when my date becomes current, I can file for my I485 along with my wife's application (hopefully she would be on H1-B visa then), Right?

[gchopeful123]

Hi imechanix,

All the best to you. I am sure that you will be current in this bulletin. BTW, can you pl tell me how much the doctor charged for the entire process?



Teddy & other PWMB's,

Finally, the end of the struggle is near soon. I hope you have your medicals done & ready to go. I just got it done (My PD June 07 & hoping to become current soon). It takes 20-30 days just to get immigration doctor's appointment. By the way, I did not have any vaccination records. They did a blood test & found antibodies present. So, I received only tetanus shot, my PPD was positive so the Dr. sent me to chest xray which was clear & marked Latent B TB which is ok. He did not write aything in Part 3 & 4 of the medical form.

Q,

I voted do nothing. I think people who have genuine interest in understanding visa allocation process & predictions will find this website by some way or other. Your forum is the least polluted & highly focused.

Thanks.

[immitrickz]

Spec -

Thanks for the explanation. I am missing something here, not sure what it is :).. I will get back in time..

[kpt112107]

Are we going to see Aug bulletin today? If yes, by what time in http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

[harick]

How does the 6 year rule work here. If someone is in US for more than 6 years on H4 (without applying for I-485), Can they still apply for H1-B? I was in an impression that during H4 to H1B conversion, USCIS also count the number of years one spent on H4.

Thanks

[sssbpgmgc]

Regarding the domain name change, I voted for Do Nothing. But it doesn't mean literally do nothing. As I said in my earlier post, this forum needs serious SEO. It is really hard to find it via the normal keywords. There is no doubt if you google "q's immigration blog" it comes as number one result. But how a person who doesn't know this website exists can search that way? Common searches would be like "eb2 india predictions 2011, august 2011 visa bulletin, august visa bulletin predictions". None of these brings qesehmk.org on the first page. I am not a SEO pro, but with the little knowledge I have these are some things that will improve the forum's visibility:
1. Use most popular key words as much as possible through out the website (for example in the title, I mean in <title>here</title> helps a LOT. To get an idea look at slickdeals.net title :) )
2. Use meta words, this is a old technique, it helps, but I am not sure how much.
3. Links from other sites (greatly improves SE ranking). To achieve this, let us refer to this forum in all other immigration websites.
4. A relevant url helps a lot, but at this point I wouldn't recommend that. Rather you can register a catchy domain and redirect to here.
5. Use social networks like facebook and twitter. It helps spread the word as well as improving the SE ranking.
6. The homepage needs some work too. A site map kind of thing works really nice. Joomla would be cool and easy.
Also, monitor the ranking closely: http://www.alexa.com/search?q=www.qesehmk.org. If you see, currently "Sites Linking In" is 1. That needs to be improved.

[wantgcnow]

Are we going to see Aug bulletin today? If yes, by what time in http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

I will ask and let you know.....:D

[harick]

Absolutely possible.

Originally Posted by haripathhi
I have a similar question however, its slightly reversed. I am currently on H1-B w/ a pd of Nov, '07. My wife is on H4 visa. We are anticipating employment opportunity for my wife and her potential employer has already filed for her H1-B visa. My question is, when my date becomes current, I can file for my I485 along with my wife's application (hopefully she would be on H1-B visa then), Right?




How does the 6 year rule work here. If someone is in US for more than 6 years on H4 (without applying for I-485), Can they still apply for H1-B? I was in an impression that during H4 to H1B conversion, USCIS also counts the number of years one spent on H4.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

Really appreciate your suggestions. I will try to work on them and get back to you.

p.s. - Meta tags is a really big thing we are missing. The SEO score is 1 out of 100 as far as meta tags is concerned. I do not know how to insert meta tags and where.

We already facebook connected. pls see at the top. But people are yet to adopt it in a big way.


Regarding the domain name change, I voted for Do Nothing. But it doesn't mean literally do nothing. As I said in my earlier post, this forum needs serious SEO. It is really hard to find it via the normal keywords. There is no doubt if you google "q's immigration blog" it comes as number one result. But how a person who doesn't know this website exists can search that way? Common searches would be like "eb2 india predictions 2011, august 2011 visa bulletin, august visa bulletin predictions". None of these brings qesehmk.org on the first page. I am not a SEO pro, but with the little knowledge I have these are some things that will improve the forum's visibility:
1. Use most popular key words as much as possible through out the website (for example in the title, I mean in <title>here</title> helps a LOT. To get an idea look at slickdeals.net title :) )
2. Use meta words, this is a old technique, it helps, but I am not sure how much.
3. Links from other sites (greatly improves SE ranking). To achieve this, let us refer to this forum in all other immigration websites.
4. A relevant url helps a lot, but at this point I wouldn't recommend that. Rather you can register a catchy domain and redirect to here.
5. Use social networks like facebook and twitter. It helps spread the word as well as improving the SE ranking.
6. The homepage needs some work too. A site map kind of thing works really nice. Joomla would be cool and easy.

[Spectator]

How does the 6 year rule work here. If someone is in US for more than 6 years on H4 (without applying for I-485), Can they still apply for H1-B? I was in an impression that during H4 to H1B conversion, USCIS also count the number of years one spent on H4.

Thanks

That used to be the case up until 2006.

Time in H4 or L2 no longer counts towards the 6 year limit.

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2007,0116-mehta.shtm (Article)
http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/news/2006,1222-admission.pdf (USCIS Memo)
http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_122006.html (Article)

[kpt112107]

That used to be the case up until 2006.

Time in H4 or L2 no longer counts towards the 6 year limit.

http://www.ilw.com/articles/2007,0116-mehta.shtm (Article)
http://www.ilw.com/immigrationdaily/news/2006,1222-admission.pdf (USCIS Memo)
http://www.murthy.com/nflash/nf_122006.html (Article)

Does L1 period counts even after moved from L1 to H1?

[Spectator]

Q, Thanks for upadating the information on the first page.

A typo and some comments.

EB3-M at Jul-11 must be a typo. It can't be more than EB3-ROW, which is at Jan-06.

You are optimistic today - August 2007 in the August VB! Do you have insider knowledge you aren't telling us about? ;)

EB3 Silver Lining. Perhaps you should show the date in the table without any spillover.

As you know, many people do not believe that any spillover to EB3 will go to EB3-I, but rather to EB3-ROW. Maybe the text should reflect the ambiguity of the interpretation and just mention where each would end up if they received the spillover (unlikely as it seems).

[qesehmk]

Oh Spec .... sorry for all the typos. You are my only serious reader it seems!!! Let me fix them ASAP.

p.s. - The Jul 11 date for EB3 mexico is supported by analysis. There just isn't enough demand there. but still DoS has held those dates back. I do not know why? Check it out.


Q, Thanks for upadating the information on the first page.

A typo and some comments.

EB3-M at Jul-11 must be a typo. It can't be more than EB3-ROW, which is at Jan-06.

You are optimistic today - August 2007 in the August VB! Do you have insider knowledge you aren't telling us about? ;)

EB3 Silver Lining. Perhaps you should show the date in the table without any spillover.

As you know, many people do not believe that any spillover to EB3 will go to EB3-I, but rather to EB3-ROW. Maybe the text should reflect the ambiguity of the interpretation.

[Spectator]

Oh Spec .... sorry for all the typos. You are my only serious reader it seems!!! Let me fix them ASAP.

p.s. - The Jul 11 date for EB3 mexico is supported by analysis. There just isn't enough demand there. but still DoS has held those dates back. I do not know why? Check it out.Q,

Believe me, I know how difficult it is updating existing text and tables!

Two pairs of eyes are better than one!

Looking at EB3-ROW progress, I think they will struggle to reach 2006. In the worst case, they probably won't get beyond November 2005 IMO and EB3-M will probably catch them up.

Similarly, EB3-I don't appear to have much prospect of moving beyond May-02.

EB3-C based on recent progress might reach August-04 but I don't have any data on them, so it is trend based. Depending how many visas they have already used, they might slow or stop.

PS No doubt I will now be proved to be an idiot!!

EB3-M is an enigma. They never appear to have much demand, but they still managed to use 7,740 visas last year. Despite that, their USCIS Inventory figures in June 2011 are still higher than they were in December 2009. I have given up trying to analyze them! In any case, by law, they cannot have a Cut Off Date later than ROW.

[imdeng]

As you know, many people do not believe that any spillover to EB3 will go to EB3-I, but rather to EB3-ROW.

My impression was that until all countries reach their Max(2800, 7% FB-EB) limit, there are no excess visas available for backlog reduction. Since in EB2, all countries except India and China are current, any SOFAD goes to I/C in order of PD. In EB3, individual countries have additional demand while they are below 7% country limit - so any SOFAD there will go to them first. Once there is no demand from countries still within the 7% cap, then any further available visas will go to EB3I/C depending upon PD. At least in my mind this is pretty much resolved. I think the confusion is because of the term ROW - there is no queue called ROW - there are only individual country queues that are labeled in aggregate for convenience.

[Spectator]

My impression was that until all countries reach their Max(2800, 7% FB-EB) limit, there are no excess visas available for backlog reduction. Since in EB2, all countries except India and China are current, any SOFAD goes to I/C in order of PD. In EB3, individual countries have additional demand while they are below 7% country limit - so any SOFAD there will go to them first. Once there is no demand from countries still within the 7% cap, then any further available visas will go to EB3I/C depending upon PD. At least in my mind this is pretty much resolved. I think the confusion is because of the term ROW - there is no queue called ROW - there are only individual country queues that are labeled in aggregate for convenience.imdeng,

That would be my position as well, although not everybody does agree with that interpretation, so I have to acknowledge that.

I put my reasoning in the FAQ http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs Post #16

I agree that the aggregating of 100+ Countries into a single group can make it difficult for people to understand the concept and the application of the law as they think of ROW as if were a Country.

[pg_at_q]

Let me try to answer your question in a couple of ways let me know if I understood correctly.
- Actually on Trackitt people would update their case for RFE and never come back to update that it is resolved. I had done some research on 2004 EB2 data ideally all cases with this PD should have been approved I figured out based on that 15-20% cases people do not update approvals. So in reality these cases are approved but not closed on Trackitt.
- Now coming to old cases in general if we look at the latest inventor cases prior to May 2006 are less than 1000, in reality half of them maybe PD porting, so now hen the dates are moving forward its almost water tight they are in fact approving every case that can possibly be approved.
- Name check and background check is an issue primarily for those who belong to countries of interest. Unfortunately genuinely good people have been held ransom for years; all these countries are part of ROW.
- The trackitt research I did today was pretty high level it assumed a 0 denial rate for 485 it was all cases for Eb2 India current this July V/S all cases current last July. The summary is that the Trackitt representation for those current in Jul 2011 is far less than Jul 2010 so fewer approvals probably 1/3rd might mean the same but because of the general online systems failure we do not see much at all this year.
- In the Trackitt prediction model that I have also in facts and data I have used a starting offset of 2000 which actually accounts for the old cases, these cases go away very slowly so for monthly VB projections we can ignore them.
- As Q has reiterated as well I also believe that realistically only 8K more SOFAD is left, this number is unfortunately not backed by a very sound calculation but it is what SOFAD was projected by calculation minus what has been allocated in approximation.

Teddy, thanks I actually didn't look at Trackitt yet. I've been looking at the pending I-485 inventory list released by USCIS on June 1, 2011.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

As you can see in the list, there is a significant number in 2006 (15,000 +) that have not been granted a visa number, yet DoS went ahead and advanced the date to March 2007. All of us know that USCIS doesn't work strictly on FIFO basis, they've approved applications randomly although within the confines of visa bulletin.

I guess, CO must be thinking what a jerk USCIS is, I better move the dates ahead otherwise these guys because of their random picking/approvals, will waste visas.

That theory above should lead CO to advance the dates much farther then the numerical analysis suggests...just a thought.

Maybe that's why they've stopped releasing demand data because they'll look stupid. The demand data will dictate that there is demand from prior year, but yet DoS advanced the dates (because of inefficiency of USCIS).

[nishant2200]

My impression was that until all countries reach their Max(2800, 7% FB-EB) limit, there are no excess visas available for backlog reduction. Since in EB2, all countries except India and China are current, any SOFAD goes to I/C in order of PD. In EB3, individual countries have additional demand while they are below 7% country limit - so any SOFAD there will go to them first. Once there is no demand from countries still within the 7% cap, then any further available visas will go to EB3I/C depending upon PD. At least in my mind this is pretty much resolved. I think the confusion is because of the term ROW - there is no queue called ROW - there are only individual country queues that are labeled in aggregate for convenience.

Perfect. That's my understanding too.

[July2007PD]

quick question from the first page predictions: under EB3 Silver Lining :Because of the unusual slowdown in EB1 / EB2 ROW processing, EB2IC will be almost completely cleared. In the best case scenario some SOFAD will actual go to EB3 (2-3K).

So this means that EB2IC will be completely cleared till Aug 17th 2007 (atleast prediction) ? the reason why i ask this is if i am not wrong all applications which are pre-adjuciated under eb2 until Aug 17 2007 needs to be cleared before any spillover to EB3.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, thanks I actually didn't look at Trackitt yet. I've been looking at the pending I-485 inventory list released by USCIS on June 1, 2011.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

As you can see in the list, there is a significant number in 2006 (15,000 +) that have not been granted a visa number, yet DoS went ahead and advanced the date to March 2007. All of us know that USCIS doesn't work strictly on FIFO basis, they've approved applications randomly although within the confines of visa bulletin.

I guess, CO must be thinking what a jerk USCIS is, I better move the dates ahead otherwise these guys because of their random picking/approvals, will waste visas.

That theory above should lead CO to advance the dates much farther then the numerical analysis suggests...just a thought.

Maybe that's why they've stopped releasing demand data because they'll look stupid. The demand data will dictate that there is demand from prior year, but yet DoS advanced the dates (because of inefficiency of USCIS).

I believe that although the inventory was dated as June 1st it was created much before. Folks on this forum and others were able to find it much before. So looks like even the May bulletin current cases appear on this document. To have a clearer idea we will have to wait for the next inventory or demand data. The approvals for July are now pouring in so we can have high hopes for August; typically 90-95% of those who are current are getting approved in the same month.

[nishant2200]

July bulletin is already in the archive, don't know since when. Seems like they already decided what they are going to put on, just matter of wait and watch. Hopefully monday or tuesday.

[qesehmk]

That is teh correct - it is a decent possibility - the average case scenario is mid july 2007 (teddy spec probably are thinking Jun 2007).

Of course the recently filed 485s (or the PWMBs) won't be cleared by Sep 2011. But the backlog could be cleared.

Another thing to remember is that backlog clearance is one thing .... but the dates could still move ahead and then come back. So date movement especially in sep-oct-nov is not necessarily tied to visa availability.


quick question from the first page predictions: under EB3 Silver Lining :Because of the unusual slowdown in EB1 / EB2 ROW processing, EB2IC will be almost completely cleared. In the best case scenario some SOFAD will actual go to EB3 (2-3K).

So this means that EB2IC will be completely cleared till Aug 17th 2007 (atleast prediction) ? the reason why i ask this is if i am not wrong all applications which are pre-adjuciated under eb2 until Aug 17 2007 needs to be cleared before any spillover to EB3.

[TeddyKoochu]

@spec - Looks like the way EB3 ROW is moving this year M & P may even exceed last year. I completely agree with you on the spillover logic. The version that you have in facts and data was even quoted by Sangiano recently. Unfortunately EB3-I is in a terrible situation they however did not lose anything though in the change of interpreation it w going to EB3-ROW earlier now EB2 I/C.

@q - I personaly believe that the version of fall down that spec has incase of a default the numbers will go to EB3 ROW is the correct one, maybe you would like to review thefirst post in light of that. Whether this situation of fall down will happen is another question the probability of that happening is less as we all are in agreement that true SOFAD left is ~ 8K and USCIS has a stockpile of EB2 ROW and EB1 Apps the totals are unprecedented atleast in the alst couple of years. I see that you have a probability of 30% for this scenario IMHO probably its only 10%. Another point to note is EB2 ROW aprovals are also coming quite regularly on Trackitt besides EB2 I.

[TeddyKoochu]

That is teh correct - it is a decent possibility - the average case scenario is mid july 2007 (teddy spec probably are thinking Jun 2007).

My belief is that we will reach 01-JUN-2007 in the August bulletin and in the Sep bulletin there won't be much of movement and around 2K SOFAD will be left if there are a few more numbers then the dates may go to 15th Aug 2007 to make every pre - adjudicated case approvable. Personally Iam hoping that the dates cross Jul but honestly the chances are 50-50.

[Spectator]

p.s. - The Jul 11 date for EB3 mexico is supported by analysis. There just isn't enough demand there. but still DoS has held those dates back. I do not know why? Check it out.Q,

I am going to repost this, since it was a later edit in a previous post and may not have been seen.


EB3-M is an enigma. They never appear to have much demand, but they still managed to use 7,740 visas last year.

Despite that, their USCIS Inventory figures in June 2011 are still higher than they were in December 2009 and the DOS Demand figures are only 500 less in June 2011 than March 2010 [the first available]).

I have given up trying to analyze them! In any case, by law, they cannot have a Cut Off Date later than ROW.

The THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf mentions this (at the very end).


Note that visa availability cut-off dates for oversubscribed areas may not be later than worldwide cut-off dates, if any, for the respective preferences.

Therefore, EB3-M cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB3-ROW, however few remaining cases they might (or might not) have.

[gchopeful123]

But wouldnt the USCIS atleast try to advance the dates in Sep 2011 so as to get some new applications in the pipeline and not have their employees sitting idle. This way they will atleast have some I-485 work to do end-of-2011/early 2012. I think for the past 4 years all they were working on were applications submitted on/before July 2007. Now since it's likely that everyone falling in that category will be allocated a visa, there are going to be almost 0 items in their queue.



My belief is that we will reach 01-JUN-2007 in the August bulletin and in the Sep bulletin there won't be much of movement and around 2K SOFAD will be left if there are a few more numbers then the dates may go to 15th Aug 2007 to make every pre - adjudicated case approvable. Personally Iam hoping that the dates cross Jul but honestly the chances are 50-50.

[shaumack]

@spec - Looks like the way EB3 ROW is moving this year M & P may even exceed last year. I completely agree with you on the spillover logic. The version that you have in facts and data was even quoted by Sangiano recently. Unfortunately EB3-I is in a terrible situation they however did not lose anything though in the change of interpreation it w going to EB3-ROW earlier now EB2 I/C.

Do we still believe in here that Sangiano and Spectator are different? I am surprised. I believe they are same and share same level of knowledge and have similar writing style. I may be wrong but that is what I assumed through out this never ending immigration journey on this wonderful website. i beleive that is why we (atleast me) do not know his PD.:). At end of the day it's all good, he is doing wonderful job and I admire his knowledge and passion.

[imdeng]

Although we would like to think that we are the center of USCIS's world - we are actually a very small part of their caseload. There are more than 1 million green cards issued every year - EB accounts for only 140K of it. FB is much more important to USCIS from a workload point of view than is EB. Add to it the many millions of AOS requests, H1B Extensions, AP/EAD etc - and EB GC is a very small part of what USCIS does.


But wouldnt the USCIS atleast try to advance the dates in Sep 2011 so as to get some new applications in the pipeline and not have their employees sitting idle. This way they will atleast have some I-485 work to do end-of-2011/early 2012. I think for the past 4 years all they were working on were applications submitted on/before July 2007. Now since it's likely that everyone falling in that category will be allocated a visa, there are going to be almost 0 items in their queue.

[Spectator]

My belief is that we will reach 01-JUN-2007 in the August bulletin and in the Sep bulletin there won't be much of movement and around 2K SOFAD will be left if there are a few more numbers then the dates may go to 15th Aug 2007 to make every pre - adjudicated case approvable. Personally Iam hoping that the dates cross Jul but honestly the chances are 50-50.Teddy,

Agree about August, but I believe DOS must move the dates beyond August 2007 in the September 2011 VB.

Otherwise, once we are in FY2012, the initial limits apply and DOS will be constrained by only moving as far as the 253rd applicant to whom a visa is available in a month, or 758th if you consider the quarter as a whole.

Existing PWMB and Porting cases from FY2011 movement that are adjudicated in FY2012 can use up that number.

It is easy to fudge the figures in September, but virtually impossible in early FY2012. Any large movement would almost certainly be in violation of the law.

As has been pointed out, moving the dates in September 2011 gives the maximum possible time to preadjudicate the cases before the spillover season starts again in FY2012.

That, in part, is why I don't think they want complete transparency about the actual demand left to fulfil.

Another viewpoint at least.

[angryclubs]

Is trackitt down for everyone?

[TeddyKoochu]

But wouldnt the USCIS atleast try to advance the dates in Sep 2011 so as to get some new applications in the pipeline and not have their employees sitting idle. This way they will atleast have some I-485 work to do end-of-2011/early 2012. I think for the past 4 years all they were working on were applications submitted on/before July 2007. Now since it's likely that everyone falling in that category will be allocated a visa, there are going to be almost 0 items in their queue.

Creating pipeline is imperative but it is totally upto the agencies when they wan't to create it. Even at the end of FY2011 i.e. Sep bulletin even if they don't do it most likely they will be able to follow all the rules. I believe they must defintely create it by Q2 2012.


Do we still believe in here that Sangiano and Spectator are different? I am surprised. I believe they are same and share same level of knowledge and have similar writing style. I may be wrong but that is what I assumed through out this never ending immigration journey on this wonderful website. i beleive that is why we (atleast me) do not know his PD.:). At end of the day it's all good, he is doing wonderful job and I admire his knowledge and passion.

Spec's brilliance, hard work, thoroughness and details can be matched only by a few people. I will leave it to him to answer if both he and Sangiano are the same :). I also note a good deal of similarity between what they both say maybe the reason is that both of them are mostly correct and match up. I greatly appreciate Spec's work like all of us, Sangiano is considered to be very thorough and knowledgeable on Trackitt so it was a compliment to Spec that his postings are being quoted outside of our blog as well. Thanks to Spec on enriching all of us, he is a unique and rare combination of tireless work, brilliance and thoroughness.

[kd2008]

Looks like trackitt I-485 tracker http://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/i485-eb has crashed. Too many approvals/sms at once? :D

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Agree about August, but I believe DOS must move the dates beyond August 2007 in the September 2011 VB.

Otherwise, once we are in FY2012, the initial limits apply and DOS will be constrained by only moving as far as the 253rd applicant to whom a visa is available in a month, or 758th if you consider the quarter as a whole.

Existing PWMB and Porting cases from FY2011 movement that are adjudicated in FY2012 can use up that number.

It is easy to fudge the figures in September, but virtually impossible in early FY2012. Any large movement would almost certainly be in violation of the law.

As has been pointed out, moving the dates in September 2011 gives the maximum possible time to preadjudicate the cases before the spillover season starts again in FY2012.

Another viewpoint at least.

Spec thanks for posting this, this is good information I believe you posted it earlier as well. So in reality it’s legally untenable to move the dates to have say a year’s worth on intake in early / mid FY 2012. Let’s hope then it happens in September because otherwise if the fresh intake is delayed to Q3 / Q4 2012 there will be insufficient time to adjudicate the newly filed EB2 cases. Let’s wait and watch really looks like the coming 2 VB's will be really interesting.

[nishant2200]

Is trackitt down for everyone?

yup. crashed.

[veni001]

Teddy,

Agree about August, but I believe DOS must move the dates beyond August 2007 in the September 2011 VB.

Otherwise, once we are in FY2012, the initial limits apply and DOS will be constrained by only moving as far as the 253rd applicant to whom a visa is available in a month, or 758th if you consider the quarter as a whole.

Existing PWMB and Porting cases from FY2011 movement that are adjudicated in FY2012 can use up that number.

It is easy to fudge the figures in September, but virtually impossible in early FY2012. Any large movement would almost certainly be in violation of the law.

As has been pointed out, moving the dates in September 2011 gives the maximum possible time to preadjudicate the cases before the spillover season starts again in FY2012.

That, in part, is why I don't think they want complete transparency about the actual demand left to fulfil.

Another viewpoint at least.

Spec,
I am back...

FY 2011 USCIS used all 2.8k(7%) allocation in the first two quarters itself(averaging 500 month) for EB2I.
If EB1 demand continue similar to this year then USCIS may issue 500 per month to EB2I again in FY2012!

[Spectator]

Spec thanks for posting this, this is good information I believe you posted it earlier as well. So in reality it’s legally untenable to move the dates to have say a year’s worth on intake in early / mid FY 2012. Let’s hope then it happens in September because otherwise if the fresh intake is delayed to Q3 / Q4 2012 there will be insufficient time to adjudicate the newly filed EB2 cases. Let’s wait and watch really looks like the coming 2 VB's will be really interesting.Teddy,

We are talking about DOS, so anything is possible, but it strikes me that they might want to avoid that scenario.

They can get around that by announcing extra visas being available from EB1/2/5, but realistically it is difficult for them to do that any earlier than the May VB.

To me (and as you point out) that doesn't leave enough time to guarantee adjudication within the FY.

It may be that staying within the law is not something that DOS are concerned about, in which case they can do what they like, but it would open them up to cases brought by EB3, who might otherwise possibly get some spillover at the end of FY2012.

In addition, again theoretically, if they followed the law, they might run out of demand within EB2 and face the possibility of making it Current at the end of FY2012.

Conversely, EB3 could never prove that there was no basis for moving the dates beyond August 2007 in September 2011. That is a judgement call (consular return rate etc etc.)

It's as much a philosophical discussion point as one based on tangible facts.

The wait is killing me!

[July2007PD]

Spec.. same here wait is really horrible :-) Hope we get the bulletin soon. But one thing is amazing how you guys are dedicated to this blog answering every question that's just fantastic.

From our "sources" do we have any info on date movement, source was dead-on with the VB not coming out today. just curious

[qesehmk]

Teddy I am beginning to come to terms with Specs theory about EB3 spillover going to ROW before IC. Teddy your point about SOFAD spillover to EB3 is also well taken. The trackitt trend that I calculated under FACTS and DATA section gave me those numbers. The best case scsenario is still 39K SOFAD which can easily put us over Aug 2007. But that trend has certainly narrowed in last 1-2 months.



@spec - Looks like the way EB3 ROW is moving this year M & P may even exceed last year. I completely agree with you on the spillover logic. The version that you have in facts and data was even quoted by Sangiano recently. Unfortunately EB3-I is in a terrible situation they however did not lose anything though in the change of interpreation it w going to EB3-ROW earlier now EB2 I/C.

@q - I personaly believe that the version of fall down that spec has incase of a default the numbers will go to EB3 ROW is the correct one, maybe you would like to review thefirst post in light of that. Whether this situation of fall down will happen is another question the probability of that happening is less as we all are in agreement that true SOFAD left is ~ 8K and USCIS has a stockpile of EB2 ROW and EB1 Apps the totals are unprecedented atleast in the alst couple of years. I see that you have a probability of 30% for this scenario IMHO probably its only 10%. Another point to note is EB2 ROW aprovals are also coming quite regularly on Trackitt besides EB2 I.

Spec ... bow to you. I loved this thing that you have brought forth. The rule makes perfect sense ...if an area is oversubscribed then for an individual country to be separately identified the country has to be overly retrogressed compared to others. The not so funny thing is that they do not apply 7% rule for such countries. So that explains why S Korea gets 6-7K in EB2 and Mexico doesn't get as much in EB3.



Q,

The THE OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf mentions this (at the very end).



Therefore, EB3-M cannot have a Cut Off Date later than that for EB3-ROW, however few remaining cases they might (or might not) have.

I think both are great guys (or girls!). But most likely they are different. The reason being I had never seen the kind of clarity of thought and depth of analysis that Spec brought to this forum. I don't know where he was hiding so long. May be I haven't read enough of Sangiano's writings. Sangiano by the way is very appreciate of teh work of this forum and is very kind in referring people to our site.

Do we still believe in here that Sangiano and Spectator are different? I am surprised. I believe they are same and share same level of knowledge and have similar writing style. I may be wrong but that is what I assumed through out this never ending immigration journey on this wonderful website. i beleive that is why we (atleast me) do not know his PD.:). At end of the day it's all good, he is doing wonderful job and I admire his knowledge and passion.

imdeng kudos to you for saying that. That is the truth... we are not the center of universe and us getting a GC is nobody's concern. The sooner one realizes it .... the less frustrated s/he will feel.

Although we would like to think that we are the center of USCIS's world - we are actually a very small part of their caseload. There are more than 1 million green cards issued every year - EB accounts for only 140K of it. FB is much more important to USCIS from a workload point of view than is EB. Add to it the many millions of AOS requests, H1B Extensions, AP/EAD etc - and EB GC is a very small part of what USCIS does.

Spec you really believe that? Who is going to punish them if they do so? At the most they will get a slap on the wrist.


It is easy to fudge the figures in September, but virtually impossible in early FY2012. Any large movement would almost certainly be in violation of the law.

[pch053]

yup. crashed.

trackitt is up again; so far, we see around 25 approvals for the month of July (plus a few who reported it in the threads but didn't create or update their profile).

[Spectator]

Spec,
I am back...

FY 2011 USCIS used all 2.8k(7%) allocation in the first two quarters itself(averaging 500 month) for EB2I.
If EB1 demand continue similar to this year then USCIS may issue 500 per month to EB2I again in FY2012!Veni,

An interesting insight.

The above is true (and they appear to have issued even more in FY2009) - DOS might claim that they did not violate the overall 27% limit for all Categories / Countries. But even 400 - 500 a month doesn't seem sufficient to make much headway with the EB2-IC Cut Off Dates IMO particularly as PWMB adjudications start to ramp up. The net extra numbers would still be relatively small.

Maybe it would be just enough to use up the CP cases to May/June 2008.

It might work, but it would be quite a risky move and still presents a timing problem to adjudicate the resulting AOS cases in time.

I'll have to think about it a bit more.

[Spectator]

Spec you really believe that? Who is going to punish them if they do so? At the most they will get a slap on the wrist.Q,

DOS managed to get away with that in 2007.

Congress is not very appreciative of Departments that break the laws they set and a few representatives would probably like nothing better than to knock State around a bit.

It could also be a crushing blow to the perception of legal immigration.

I wouldn't dismiss it so lightly.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

We are talking about DOS, so anything is possible, but it strikes me that they might want to avoid that scenario.

They can get around that by announcing extra visas being available from EB1/2/5, but realistically it is difficult for them to do that any earlier than the May VB.

To me (and as you point out) that doesn't leave enough time to guarantee adjudication within the FY.

It may be that staying within the law is not something that DOS are concerned about, in which case they can do what they like, but it would open them up to cases brought by EB3, who might otherwise possibly get some spillover at the end of FY2012.

In addition, again theoretically, if they followed the law, they might run out of demand within EB2 and face the possibility of making it Current at the end of FY2012.

Conversely, EB3 could never prove that there was no basis for moving the dates beyond August 2007 in September 2011. That is a judgement call (consular return rate etc etc.)

It's as much a philosophical discussion point as one based on tangible facts.

The wait is killing me!

Spec you are right the discussion is more philosophical than numerical. I would also agree with Veni that EB2-I cap was fully burnt out much earlier. Now since there are no approval statistics published monthly but just an annual report so all that can be audited is whether the allocations were followed in he letter and spirit. Now in 2011 it probably will be ok. In 2012 if extra intake is not taken in 2011 there will surely be a conflict between the law and the letter and spirit because the adjudication process is slow, EB3 ROW will get the spillover for sure if EB2 intake is not done in a timely manner. It’s a matter of wait and watch now, the wait getting long for everyone of us.

[veni001]

Veni,

An interesting insight.

The above is true (and they appear to have issued even more in FY2009) - DOS might claim that they did not violate the overall 27% limit for all Categories / Countries. But even 400 - 500 a month doesn't seem sufficient to make much headway with the EB2-IC Cut Off Dates IMO particularly as PWMB adjudications start to ramp up. The net extra numbers would still be relatively small.

Maybe it would be just enough to use up the CP cases to May/June 2008.

It might work, but it would be quite a risky move and still presents a timing problem to adjudicate the resulting AOS cases in time.

I'll have to think about it a bit more.

Spec,
I think as long as monthly EB1 and EB2ROW usage is low, USCIS can try to use EB2I 7% annual allocation in the first two quarters!

[Spectator]

Spec,
I think as long as monthly EB1 and EB2ROW usage is low, USCIS can try to use EB2I 7% annual allocation in the first two quarters!Veni,

I don't have much of a problem with that.

The problem is more about how they would balance actual demand left, the timing of PWMB/Porting Demand, the movement of the Cut off Dates, CP demand in the future, not actually running out of demand in doing that and getting applications in early enough that they can be adjudicated in time. It becomes very convoluted and complicated.

Occam's Razor says it is a hell of a lot easier to do in FY2011 and save that pain.

Who knows!

[TexDBoy]

Hi all, approval email with PD Jan 23, 2007. Thanks for all the help. Hope this data point helps that they are covering all month cases in the first week itself.

[nishant2200]

Veni,

I don't have much of a problem with that.

The problem is more about how they would balance actual demand left, the timing of PWMB/Porting Demand, the movement of the Cut off Dates, CP demand in the future, not actually running out of demand in doing that and getting applications in early enough that they can be adjudicated in time. It becomes very convoluted and complicated.

Occam's Razor says it is a hell of a lot easier to do in FY2011 and save that pain.

Who knows!

You gurus are now reaching the stage of enlightenment, tending towards Buddha.

[imechanix]

Hi imechanix,

All the best to you. I am sure that you will be current in this bulletin. BTW, can you pl tell me how much the doctor charged for the entire process?

300$ per person + Chest X ray charges (they took my insurance card)

[MorningSun]

Hello everyone, my application was approved on the first day of July. My priority date is 1/28/07. Best wishes to everyone waiting.

[veni001]

Veni,

I don't have much of a problem with that.

The problem is more about how they would balance actual demand left, the timing of PWMB/Porting Demand, the movement of the Cut off Dates, CP demand in the future, not actually running out of demand in doing that and getting applications in early enough that they can be adjudicated in time. It becomes very convoluted and complicated.

Occam's Razor says it is a hell of a lot easier to do in FY2011 and save that pain.

Who knows!

Spec,
I am with you.

Looks like trackitt updates picked up steam!

[PD1006]

Received approval notice alert via e-mail today
Approval date seems to be July 5 - note says they mailed us a notice of approval
EB2I - PD 17 Oct 2006
Filed at TSC


Received the cards as well

[veni001]

Received the cards as well

PD1006,
Congratulations.

[amitk81]

Got green cards in the mail this evening.

Contacted the senator on 28th June, she confirmed that the card was approved on 1st July.

I strongly suggest that people who are current contact the senator this really help.

Amit

[nuvikas]

I was greened on 7/7. I called customer service and talked to a second level rep who confirmed that both my and my wife's cards were approved. EB2-I, Dec 2006 PD. Filed in Aug 2007. This is the best immigration related blog out there. Thanks for all you contribution.

[pch053]

Prediction
August Bulletin - May 8, 2007

What is the general consensus now on the Aug bulletin? Does the majority expect that it will be around May'07 - June'07 time frame? I think another 8K spillover will push the dates to end of June'07 and additional 3K will cover remaining pending applications up to Aug'07. As we have seen in the past, our estimates can go wrong and there can be surprises but still prediction is always a fun game. We will come to know next week for sure!

[imdeng]

Folks - I think we should explore archiving all the discussion and starting a new thread. We anyway have the summary on the first page - so no information will be lost - and it will become easier to navigate for the newbies.

[gchopeful123]

Take a look at this. This dude was pretty close in his predictions - cud be an alias for some of the experts here, who knows :)

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/general-immigration-questions-15/eb2-india-and-china-preditions-12708/

[nuvikas]

Thanks for your wishes. Enclosed is the summary of my case. EB2-I PD Dec 14, 2006 filed in TSC in Aug 2007. Case was transferred to NBS and was called for interview in Sept 2009. Immigration officer asked few questions, verified few documents and told me that she would have approved my case if my priority date was current. None the less she requested a visa number. Case stayed in NBS for over a year and then it was transferred back to TSC in Mar 2011. I finally received the email on 7/7/2011 about the approvals. I was a regular reader of this forum. Q, Teddy, V and others were very knowledgeable and diligently answered all the question. This forum was spot on with its predictions. Hats off to you all. Thank you Q for starting this forum.

[neospeed]

Thanks for your wishes. Enclosed is the summary of my case. EB2-I PD Dec 14, 2006 filed in TSC in Aug 2007. Case was transferred to NBS and was called for interview in Sept 2009. Immigration officer asked few questions, verified few documents and told me that she would have approved my case if my priority date was current. None the less she requested a visa number. Case stayed in NBS for over a year and then it was transferred back to TSC in Mar 2011. I finally received the email on 7/7/2011 about the approvals. I was a regular reader of this forum. Q, Teddy, V and others were very knowledgeable and diligently answered all the question. This forum was spot on with its predictions. Hats off to you all. Thank you Q for starting this forum.


Thanks for the info, mine also similar case. Did you rise any SR once current?.

[gccool]

Thank you nuvikas for the info.

[angryclubs]

Trackitt is showing approvals for today i.e. Saturday. Good that USCIS is working on weekends

[qblogfan]

I saw many China EB2 got approved today with PD as late as March 2007.

It looks like that many EB2 are approved already. After PD March 7, 2007 there should be only 10k demand left.



Trackitt is showing approvals for today i.e. Saturday. Good that USCIS is working on weekends

[nishant2200]

I saw many China EB2 got approved today with PD as late as March 2007.

It looks like that many EB2 are approved already. After PD March 7, 2007 there should be only 10k demand left.

qblogfan, are you saying they are claiming that they approval date is today, or they just see the card today in their mailbox. on trackitt, for India, I do see around 8-9 approvals posted by people, which they claim approval date is 7/9 i.e. today saturday.

if indeed, people are getting approval date notifications of today, it means USCIS is working on the weekend. Now, what can we interpret from that.

A thought from me.

The workload is quite high, lots of eligible demand, but also lots of available visas, and they do want to assign as much current people they can, because they know next month, more will be current, and more visas are going to be available. That is why the extra push and effort.

Now, if such was above, then why not just release the visa bulletin on friday, why wait for the inevitable. Maybe there is a good faith rule adhered by them, that they will work n number of work days, and realize a certain pattern of assignment and demand, before they officially release, what is in fact already decided.

Again, this is just my thoughts on the positive side. Of course, the truth is not known to me.

qblogfan, 10k is not much left. I am really hopeful that folks in USCIS, DOS, have realized that adjudication takes time, and they will need to take fresh intake, if they want to give the appropriate spillover to EB2 I/C next year. If they have not realized this, or taken this into account in their policy matters, I am really afraid that next year's spillover, which may not be as high as this year, might go to EB3 ROW and EB2 I/C just get EADs.

[pch053]

From 8th March to mid-Aug'07, there are nearly 11K (few hundred less) EB2-I/C applications that are pending. As seen in the predictions, we might not have another 11K spillover available. The consensus is more towards 8K but no one can exactly say the actual number. We also need to keep in mind that there was a significant number of pending EB2-ROW and EB1 applications from the June data (around 10K EB1 and 9K EB2-ROW). Out of these, a decent percentage of applications is from 2010. So, I will expect those getting approved unless there is any complication with the specific case. The PDs that will be cleared for EB2-I/C will be anywhere between June'07 - Aug'07 (which has been mentioned in earlier posts also).

With all this being said, I do think USCIS needs to advance the dates to 2008 to take in new applications and create a buffer pool. This depends entirely on their policy rather than visa availability; so all we can do is wait for few more days for the Aug bulletin. As Q mentioned in his earlier posts, even if the dates move to 2008 (probably in Sep bulletin, if that happens), it doesn't imply that all pending PDs up to Aug'07 will be cleared as the sole purpose of advancing the dates will be to create the buffer of applications.

[qblogfan]

nishant2200, I saw several Chinese EB2 got emails today. It looks like they are working on Saturday.

At the same time, a bunch Chinese EB2 got GC in mail without email notification. Around 30 Chinese EB2 reported green today and yesterday.

The PDs range from Oct.2006 to March 2007. The latest one I saw is March 5, 2007.


qblogfan, are you saying they are claiming that they approval date is today, or they just see the card today in their mailbox. on trackitt, for India, I do see around 8-9 approvals posted by people, which they claim approval date is 7/9 i.e. today saturday.

if indeed, people are getting approval date notifications of today, it means USCIS is working on the weekend. Now, what can we interpret from that.

A thought from me.

The workload is quite high, lots of eligible demand, but also lots of available visas, and they do want to assign as much current people they can, because they know next month, more will be current, and more visas are going to be available. That is why the extra push and effort.

Now, if such was above, then why not just release the visa bulletin on friday, why wait for the inevitable. Maybe there is a good faith rule adhered by them, that they will work n number of work days, and realize a certain pattern of assignment and demand, before they officially release, what is in fact already decided.

Again, this is just my thoughts on the positive side. Of course, the truth is not known to me.

qblogfan, 10k is not much left. I am really hopeful that folks in USCIS, DOS, have realized that adjudication takes time, and they will need to take fresh intake, if they want to give the appropriate spillover to EB2 I/C next year. If they have not realized this, or taken this into account in their policy matters, I am really afraid that next year's spillover, which may not be as high as this year, might go to EB3 ROW and EB2 I/C just get EADs.

[getgreened2010]

Got the CPO (Card Production Ordered) email yesterday.
Priority Date: 12/27/2006
Country: India
Service Centre: TSC

Thanks to all the gurus who gave us peace of mind, especially Q, Teddy, Spec, Veni001.....I have been following Q and Teddy from immigrationvoice......and I want to thank them for their contribution......all the best to rest of the folks....hope you guys get greened pretty soon.

[pch053]

So far, I see 57 approvals in trackitt for the month of July with 41 of them from TSC and 16 from NSC. Is the distribution of applicants even between these two centers? The # of approvals seem to be biased in favor of TSC over NSC but this might just be a random coincidence.

[nishant2200]

nishant2200, I saw several Chinese EB2 got emails today. It looks like they are working on Saturday.

At the same time, a bunch Chinese EB2 got GC in mail without email notification. Around 30 Chinese EB2 reported green today and yesterday.

The PDs range from Oct.2006 to March 2007. The latest one I saw is March 5, 2007.

Guys, have we seen this earlier, them working on a weekend. Anything we should be happy/concerned about, any thoughts about why they are working on a saturday, if they are.

[veni001]

So far, I see 57 approvals in trackitt for the month of July with 41 of them from TSC and 16 from NSC. Is the distribution of applicants even between these two centers? The # of approvals seem to be biased in favor of TSC over NSC but this might just be a random coincidence.

pch053,
Both TSC & NSC show almost same number of pre-adjudicated cases. NCS got more 485 receipts and completions in the last two quarters.

[Spectator]

Previously, there was a good discussion about the numbers of Trackitt applications for recent movements in the VB.

It noted that these appeared to be lower than the overall numbers for movement in FY2010 and the number of "real world" approvals per Trackitt approval would therefore be higher.

I have added a second running total column to the EB2-I figures at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010

From June onwards it attempts to take account of the number of applications in Trackitt vs the movement in the VB.

Also, as I had noted in the text, CO's comments in the May VB could be interpreted as EB2-I reaching the 7% limit either in March or April. The existing figure uses the more conservative approach, whereas the new column is more aggressive in the interpretation.


Cum. No. 2 tries to take into account that months that have become Current in FY2011 may have different Trackitt % to the overall FY2010 figure. From June onwards, these become potentially significant. It also assumes that the 7% limit was reached in March 2011. Please recognize that trying to convert Trackitt approvals to total "real world" approvals is an imprecise science.

Because it assumes that all pending Trackitt cases will be approved (which probably isn't true), it might still understate the real numbers. Be aware of that and accept that it is the best I can do currently. Remember that all the figures are just "best attempts" and subject to quite wide error margins. Please view them with that in mind.

[qesehmk]

Trackitt trends updated. The trend has deteriorated. The worst case scenario is still May 2007 for EB2I. The best case being Aug 2007. But now I do not think there will be anything given to EB3. Check it out.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716

[Monica12]

Trackitt trends updated. The trend has deteriorated. The worst case scenario is still May 2007 for EB2I. The best case being Aug 2007. But now I do not think there will be anything given to EB3. Check it out.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716

Q, I'm a little confused, worst case May 2007 for EB2I.... is this for Aug VB or this fiscal year. Thank you.

[qesehmk]

Both.

Additional movement (if any) in Sep/Oct will be towards intaking additional applications rather than backlog clearance if FY 2011.


Q, I'm a little confused, worst case May 2007 for EB2I.... is this for Aug VB or this fiscal year. Thank you.

[qblogfan]

Yesterday and Friday totally 31 Chinese EB2 got approved.

14 from NSC and 17 from TSC. It looks like both of these two centers are working hard.


pch053,
Both TSC & NSC show almost same number of pre-adjudicated cases. NCS got more 485 receipts and completions in the last two quarters.

[pch053]

Both.

Additional movement (if any) in Sep/Oct will be towards intaking additional applications rather than backlog clearance if FY 2011.

Q,
This is more for my understanding of USCIS behavior in relation to advancing dates. Lets say we have X spillovers remaining where X can be anything up to 11K with 8K being the average consensus as of now. So, will USCIS advance the dates to advance so that the entire quota of X can be approved in the Aug bulletin itself? Or, will they advance the dates to consume a portion of X (say 80%) in the Aug bulletin and leave the remaining (20%) for the Sep bulletin. I am thinking of this possibility as there are significant number of pending EB1 and EB2-ROW applications even from 2010 and USCIS might exercise some caution while moving the dates.

If we go by last year's movement, the dates advanced by similar amounts in July and Aug bulletin (~5 months) and advanced a bit (albeit much less, ~2 months) for the Sep bulletin. We know this year's situation is different as there is the possibility of dates moving forward for taking in new applications; so, it might not directly correlate to 2010.

[qesehmk]

Wherever they move dates in August ... I believe everybody should get a visa this year itself. The movement in September though doesn't mean everybody who is current gets a visa.


Q,
This is more for my understanding of USCIS behavior in relation to advancing dates. Lets say we have X spillovers remaining where X can be anything up to 11K with 8K being the average consensus as of now. So, will USCIS advance the dates to advance so that the entire quota of X can be approved in the Aug bulletin itself? Or, will they advance the dates to consume a portion of X (say 80%) in the Aug bulletin and leave the remaining (20%) for the Sep bulletin. I am thinking of this possibility as there are significant number of pending EB1 and EB2-ROW applications even from 2010 and USCIS might exercise some caution while moving the dates.

If we go by last year's movement, the dates advanced by similar amounts in July and Aug bulletin (~5 months) and advanced a bit (albeit much less, ~2 months) for the Sep bulletin. We know this year's situation is different as there is the possibility of dates moving forward for taking in new applications; so, it might not directly correlate to 2010.

[Pdmar08]

New user ..first post.. Love the forum....thank you gurus.

I am curbing my enthu after being almost positive to be C this year, neways.

Wanted to throw this in, could USCIS be working on the weekend due to possibility of govt shutdown later in the month?
Not sure if this is connected or if it is considered essential service.

[veni001]

New user ..first post.. Love the forum....thank you gurus.

I am curbing my enthu after being almost positive to be C this year, neways.

Wanted to throw this in, could USCIS be working on the weekend due to possibility of govt shutdown later in the month?
Not sure if this is connected or if it is considered essential service.

Pdmar08,
Welcome! Most of them are e-mail updates from the system.

[nishant2200]

New user ..first post.. Love the forum....thank you gurus.

I am curbing my enthu after being almost positive to be C this year, neways.

Wanted to throw this in, could USCIS be working on the weekend due to possibility of govt shutdown later in the month?
Not sure if this is connected or if it is considered essential service.

I am myself trying to wreck my brains over why they worked on saturday.

But it's not because if any govt shutdown. The federal budget is already passed for this FY. Also, USCIS is funded by user fees and hence AOS won't be affected.

What would be affected in a shutdown is PERM since DOL does not charge for labor, as well as consulates abroad would not issue visas.

I think we can relax. Also March 2008 is still a possibility this year in sep oct or nov.

[28thJune2007]

Any chances of VB coming out on Monday ?

[veni001]

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.


Any chances of VB coming out on Monday ?

28thJune2007,
Nope, most likely it will be Wed/Thu.

[28thJune2007]

Thanks Veni

I hope we get some indications from Q's source though

[pch053]

Trackitt trends updated. The trend has deteriorated. The worst case scenario is still May 2007 for EB2I. The best case being Aug 2007. But now I do not think there will be anything given to EB3. Check it out.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-Trackitt-based-projections&p=1716#post1716
Just clarifying: I think we have used approx 24K spillovers so far (3K for May, 9K for June and 12K for July). This chart shows the spillover range between 26K - 32K. So, if we go by the pessimistic estimate, then we only have 2K spillover left and the expected spillover (based on last year's trackitt approval trend) is 8K. Am I interpreting the data correctly here?

For another 8K spillover, the dates can move around 4 months or up to 8th July'07. If we have only 2K spillover left, it will move only a month or so. But, I think I might be missing something here as the worst case scenario still says May'07.

[qesehmk]

You need to add 5.6K EB2IC quota to that.


Just clarifying: I think we have used approx 24K spillovers so far (3K for May, 9K for June and 12K for July). This chart shows the spillover range between 26K - 32K. So, if we go by the pessimistic estimate, then we only have 2K spillover left and the expected spillover (based on last year's trackitt approval trend) is 8K. Am I interpreting the data correctly here?

For another 8K spillover, the dates can move around 4 months or up to 8th July'07. If we have only 2K spillover left, it will move only a month or so. But, I think I might be missing something here as the worst case scenario still says May'07.

[neospeed]

You need to add 5.6K EB2IC quota to that.

So we got around 24k - 5.6k = 18.4k from other categories so far ( eb5/eb1/eb2 row) ?

[pch053]

You need to add 5.6K EB2IC quota to that.
But hasn't the 5.6K (at least 2.8K for EB2-I) been consumed till April'07 for EB3->EB2 porting and any prior EB2-I pending applications?

[veni001]

But hasn't the 5.6K (at least 2.8K for EB2-I) been consumed till April'07 for EB3->EB2 porting and any prior EB2-I pending applications?

pch053,
You are correct 2.8k EB2I allocation was utilized until April 2011 to clear porting + pending cases until 08MAY2006.
Similarly, 2.8k EB2C allocation was utilized until June 2011 to clear porting + pending cases until 01AUG2006.
Which means, we saw an additional ~21k movement+porting numbers(if any, since April 2011) as of July 2011 Bulitten, based on 10-01-2010 inventory.

Total VISA numbers allocated to EB2IC before AUG2011VB ~= 5.6k+21k ~= 27k

[Spectator]

Just clarifying: I think we have used approx 24K spillovers so far (3K for May, 9K for June and 12K for July). This chart shows the spillover range between 26K - 32K. So, if we go by the pessimistic estimate, then we only have 2K spillover left and the expected spillover (based on last year's trackitt approval trend) is 8K. Am I interpreting the data correctly here?

For another 8K spillover, the dates can move around 4 months or up to 8th July'07. If we have only 2K spillover left, it will move only a month or so. But, I think I might be missing something here as the worst case scenario still says May'07.pch,

I look at it slightly differently, like veni using the October Inventory.

To reach 08MAR07 EB2-IC required 23k visas. If we add on 5k for porting/pwmb then EB2-IC needs 28k to reach 08MAR07.

Q's figures of 26-32k Spillover translate to 31.6 - 37.6k SOFAD.

That leaves 3.6 - 9.6k left for August/September.

At the bottom end that is enough to reach May 07 and the top end well into July 07.

My take anyway.

[pch053]

Thanks Veni, Spec and Q for the detailed explanation and it surely clarified my doubts. Another 3.6K - 9.6K makes perfect sense and it translates to May'07 to mid/late July'07 range. This also explains why ~8K is taken as the consensus as the reality is probably somewhere between 3.6 and 9.6K.

[Spectator]

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[nishant2200]

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Spec, this is a testimony to u guys calculations. Spot on.

Wov, only 10.5 k to go. Man that's not much, that's my first feeling.

[neospeed]

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Great. So are we going to get VB today itself ?. Does anything change with our predictions?.

[nishant2200]

Also have to say, great job USCIS.

I feel that DOS in fact has a demand vs visas release model and for demand u need inventory. Really hopeful they grab a year's worth.

[vishnu]

Looks like we'll have just about enough SOFAD to clear EB2 IC thru to July 07 - as Q pointed out, don't think there will be #s left for EB3 spillover. Probably means less pressure for them to make EB2 current?

[kd2008]

Did anybody notice that EB-3 Phillipines has a demand of zero! It makes me wonder.....

[natvyas]

it says demand till 1 Jan 2008 is about ~10K ...so if they have around 4-8K then lower end could be May/Jun and upper end could be oct/nov.....right?

Regards
Nat

[gc_usa]

Q , this is my first post on this forum. Did u get any clue from your source yet ? seems like data is out and we may see bulletin today.

[iamdeb]

Great. So are we going to get VB today itself ?. Does anything change with our predictions?.
Hi,

I am new to this forum and this might be a dumb question.

What does the last row for 2011 imply?

January 1, 2011 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

Thanks,
Deb

[ssvp22]

Hi,

I am new to this forum and this might be a dumb question.

What does the last row for 2011 imply?

January 1, 2011 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

Thanks,
Deb

I guess those are from the countries that are current. Hence year 2011 for them

[iamdeb]

Sorry I meant the last row for EB2 in the demand data.

Cumulative Demand Prior To China India All Other Grand Total
1-Jan-11 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

What does it imply?

[nishant2200]

Maybe CP demand for fee notices replied to in 2008. Not sure if CP is included here.

It may also be porters who have ported and their old PD are still not registered.


Sorry I meant the last row for EB2 in the demand data.

Cumulative Demand Prior To China India All Other Grand Total
1-Jan-11 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

What does it imply?

[angryclubs]

Sorry I meant the last row for EB2 in the demand data.

Cumulative Demand Prior To China India All Other Grand Total
1-Jan-11 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

What does it imply?

Sum of the other columns?
4125 + 6525 + 125 = 10775

[Spectator]

Did anybody notice that EB-3 Phillipines has a demand of zero! It makes me wonder.....kd,

Just another cock up I think. Quite common for the Demand Data.

The missing spaces are blank not zero.

In any case, it is impossible for EB3-P to have received visas beyond 2005 because ROW-P Cut Off Date limits them.

In addition, the overall EB 7% limit would come into play.

Historically, when there are errors, the table is not updated and uploaded. I hope this will be an exception.

PS:- I also noticed that EB3-I numbers later than 2002 have reduced by a net 625 since the last Demand Data report (presumably porting cases in the main?).

[grnwtg]

Sorry I meant the last row for EB2 in the demand data.

Cumulative Demand Prior To China India All Other Grand Total
1-Jan-11 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

What does it imply?

It implies that there are 10,775 applicants who are wating for visa number ( Till 2011 Jan) to get their GC, out of them 4125 are from china , 6525 are from Indian and 125 from other countries.
You cannot take count of 2011 Jan for India and China as priority dates got retrogressed for these countries. For example, China as 4125 applicants pending till July'2007 ( probably few more) and not Jan 2011.

I understand this is what you are asking.

[iamdeb]

It implies that there are 10,775 applicants who are wating for visa number ( Till 2011 Jan) to get their GC, out of them 4125 are from china , 6525 are from Indian and 125 from other countries.
You cannot take count of 2011 Jan for India and China as priority dates got retrogressed for these countries. For example, China as 4125 applicants pending till July'2007 ( probably few more) and not Jan 2011.

I understand this is what you are asking.

Yes you got the import of my question.
How come for India demand is 6400 till Jan 1 2008 and only 6525 till Jan 2011?
Does it mean that total 6525 people applied from India in EB2 category in span of 3 years from 2008- 2010.

[harick]

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Looking at the demand numbers for EB2-I, till Jan1st 2008 it has a demand of 6400. By Jan 1st 2011 EB2-I has a demand of 6525. Does anyone know how they got 125 applications between Jan 2008 to Jan 2011 as EB2-I PD never went into 2008?

[grnwtg]

Yes you got the import of my question.
How come for India demand is 6400 till Jan 1 2008 and only 6525 till Jan 2011?
Does it mean that total 6525 people applied from India in EB2 category in span of 3 years from 2008- 2010.

Nope, after July'2007 - priority dates for India have retrogressed. There are lot of applicants from India From July 2007 to till date (another 3k to 5k applicant before July'2007) who got their I140 approved but waiting to file I485 and these numbers are not counted yet.

Example: In next bulletin if priority date of India move to June'2008, we can expect atleast 15,000 new Indian applicants.( rought estimates but Gurus here have given right number ealier)

[Spectator]

Hi,

I am new to this forum and this might be a dumb question.

What does the last row for 2011 imply?
January 1, 2011 4,125 6,525 125 10,775

Thanks,
DebDeb,

The figures are cumulative, so the actual numbers beyond 2007 become:

China - 75
India - 125
ROW - 200

These figures have remained fairly constant over the months, so I believe they represent the rolling monthly number of CP cases that become Documentarily Qualified for ROW and have not yet had the interview and Documentarily Qualified CP cases for China and India with a PD later than the current Cut Off date.

Some of them may have reached that state in July 2007 and been waiting ever since because they became documentarily qualified, but the Cut Off dates retrogressed before the interview date could be set.

I'm not convinced they yet include the cases that were recently sent fee notices.

[victorian]

Yes you got the import of my question.
How come for India demand is 6400 till Jan 1 2008 and only 6525 till Jan 2011?
Does it mean that total 6525 people applied from India in EB2 category in span of 3 years from 2008- 2010.

If I am not mistaken, 6400 is the number of people who have yet to be assigned a visa and filed before the dates retrogressed in July 2007. I am guessing that the 125 comes from porting to EB2 from EB3 and spouses who were able to file once dates got current (for people who were not married in 2007).

[RMS_V13]

Yes you got the import of my question.
How come for India demand is 6400 till Jan 1 2008 and only 6525 till Jan 2011?
Does it mean that total 6525 people applied from India in EB2 category in span of 3 years from 2008- 2010.

I am familiar but not so much with the whole demand data/Visa bullettin etc. I tried to go back as much as I could to catch up but have some questions..

I also have the same question. What does this number 10000 odd mean? How do they know how many ppl waitin in line after 2007 ?

[grnwtg]

Looking at the demand numbers for EB2-I, till Jan1st 2008 it has a demand of 6400. By Jan 1st 2011 EB2-I has a demand of 6525. Does anyone know how they got 125 applications between Jan 2008 to Jan 2011 as EB2-I PD never went into 2008?

I might be wrong here, but i know few cases where their spouses applied I485 after 2008( their spouses priority dates in < July 2007). I guess these numbers are count of applicants from Jan'2008 to now.

[Stemcell]

When i compare June 2011 demand data to August demand data i see that EB2C came down from 9250 to 4125 and EB2I came down from 20,350 to 6525.
It looks like DOS/USCIS is making sure India and China are on the same page.
Is there a rule to keep retrogressed countries at around the same priority date?

[iamdeb]

Deb,

The figures are cumulative, so the actual numbers beyond 2007 become:

China - 75
India - 125
ROW - 200

These figures have remained fairly constant over the months, so I believe they represent the rolling monthly number of CP cases that become Documentarily Qualified for ROW and have not yet had the interview and Documentarily Qualified CP cases for China and India with a PD later than the current Cut Off date.

Some of them may have reached that state in July 2007 and been waiting ever since. I'm not convinced they yet include the cases that were recently sent fee notices.

Thanks for the clarification Spec. Now it makes better sense to me.

[grnwtg]

When i compare June 2011 demand data to August demand data i see that EB2C came down from 9250 to 4125 and EB2I came down from 20,350 to 6525.
It looks like DOS/USCIS is making sure India and China are on the same page.
Is there a rule to keep retrogressed countries at around the same priority date?

I guess there is one, but not sure if its legal binded or not.

[veni001]

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf


Spec, this is a testimony to u guys calculations. Spot on.

Wov, only 10.5 k to go. Man that's not much, that's my first feeling.


I am glad that we are on track!

[Spectator]

When i compare June 2011 demand data to August demand data i see that EB2C came down from 9250 to 4125 and EB2I came down from 20,350 to 6525.
It looks like DOS/USCIS is making sure India and China are on the same page.
Is there a rule to keep retrogressed countries at around the same priority date?Stemcell,

The spare visas are being allocated under Section 202(a)(5) to both China and India.

The visas have to be allocated on a strictly PD basis, so the Cut Off Date has to be the same for both Countries.

CO explained in the May VB why China and India had different Cut Off Dates despite Section 202(a)(5). http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5424.html (see Section D)

In May it was in operation for India alone, but China had not used their 7% allocation and could have a later PD.

From June, both Countries have been using visas under Section 202(a)(5) and therefore must share the same Cut Off Date.

CO mentioned in the June VB http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5452.html (section D) that "The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference."

[28thJune2007]

Latest demand data says "Demand Data Used in the Determination of the August 2011 Employment Preference Cut-Off Dates"
Does this mean they have already made the decision for Aug VB ? May be we can see the bulletin today.

[Stemcell]

Stemcell,

The spare visas are being allocated under Section 202(a)(5) to both China and India.

The visas have to be allocated on a strictly PD basis, so the Cut Off Date has to be the same for both Countries.

CO explained in the May VB why China and India had different Cut Off Dates despite Section 202(a)(5). http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5424.html (see Section D)

In May it was in operation for India alone, but China had not used their 7% allocation and could have a later PD.

From June, both Countries have been using visas under Section 202(a)(5) and therefore must share the same Cut Off Date.

CO mentioned in the June VB http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5452.html (section D) that "The same cut-off date will apply to both China and India Employment Second preference."

Thank you Spec
Again its very complicated for me...i am fine as long as the numbers of India are going down :)

[Stemcell]

Yes there is a rule when Spillover is issued to retrogessed countries , Visas should be alloted in PD ascending order wise . Spillover Visas are not split equally. For example when 10,000 nos to be shared between I and C , Visas cannot be issued like 5000+5000. Instead they combine both I and C demand together and start alloting Visas according to earlier PD wise. During this allocation , when 10000 visas finished up , the very first I and C applicant who was not alloted Visa will have the same PD.

Thank you Kanmani.
Always learning something new.

[TeddyKoochu]

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. The demand data confirms that USCIS will be able to or has been able to attach cap numbers to all cases current in July.
By a conservative calculation only 8K SOFAD is left while demand data indicates 10.5 preadjudicated cases are left. Now for the upcoming bulletin I believe that they should go full blast and allocate the 6-8K numbers bringing the dates to the range 01-JUN-2007 (6K) to 01-JUL-2007.

Now coming to new intake though this is completely in the hypothetical domain, the NVC fee receipts should be the guideline. By those standards it should be end of Q1 20008 which is 03/31/2008, I would say anyone with a PD in 2007 is virtually sure of being part of the next intake. I believe that this intake must happen soon but when is entirely hypothetical. Most people believe that it will be either in Aug - Sep 2011 if not it will get delayed to May 2012. Lets wait and watch.
All the best to everyone. If you ask me for 1 figure it will be EB2-I - 01-JUN-2007 for Aug 2011.

[MeraNoAayega]

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

Data as fo Aug 10,2011....

WOW that is impressive.... Looks like USCIS approve and send out lots of GC's in the last 2 months...

[sunny4gc]

Is there a chance that my PD 12/07 will be current by AUG bulletin?

[leo4ever]

Hi,

Demand data will have data of those who already filed I-485. So far for EB2 dates have reached until Jul 2007 (Mamimum; when current). There are so many people who applied for I-140 but haven't filed for 485 yet as their dates are not current. Once the know demand data (10K+) we have now is used they might move dates for 6 months to an year so that they can get move i-485 and thus they showup on demand data file again and USCIS can work on it.

To check how many people are waiting after Jul 2007, use PERM data

-Leo


I am familiar but not so much with the whole demand data/Visa bullettin etc. I tried to go back as much as I could to catch up but have some questions..

I also have the same question. What does this number 10000 odd mean? How do they know how many ppl waitin in line after 2007 ?

[neospeed]

A few quick observations:
1. The demand data doesnt include cases upto Mar 8 2007, implies the cases were applied visa numbers as soon as they became current. So expect the same for whoever next becomes current.
2. The demand for EB2 is ~10K ... so its very much possible that the dates could move much ahead of that in Sep.
3. Also based on demand for EB2 our predictions are on track and it seems we all are doing kumbaya as far as Jun 2007 is concerned for Aug 2007.
4. Kudos to Spec for pointing out the EB3 reduction. In reality the conversion is more .... but i think its just not reflected in the data.
5. No news from source yet. Lets wait a few more hours.






Agree here. Could be upto first week of Jul 2007. But that's a minor difference.


Thanks Q for your analysis. Do they usually release VB same day as demand data? how was the historical pattern?

[soggadu]

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

[qesehmk]

I haven't kept track. But my memory says usually next day.
Thanks Q for your analysis. Do they usually release VB same day as demand data? how was the historical pattern?

[qesehmk]

Amen! Tathaastu!

i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

[nishant2200]

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

AMEN.

God bless!

[RMS_V13]

Hello:

Sorry to digress..What if my PD is current and I am in India and cannot travel immediately? Can I apply for processing from the US embassy in India? What are my options?

Know this is not a legal advice :)

Update : Me is not the principal applicant

[imdeng]

Following is the reduction in EB3I demand from the last demand data two months back. The important figure is the last column - incremental reduction.

Year--July-10'2011--May-09'2011--Reduction--Incremental Reduction
2002--20--25--5--0
2003--6400--6900--500--495
2004--18325--19000--675--175
2005--32150--33050--900--225
2006--41125--42125--1000--100
2007--52125--53250--1125--125

If we consider any reduction in years 2004-2007 as a result of EB3->2 upgrades, then we get a total of (175+225+100+125) = 625 porting cases in two months. Now, it is possible that some of the 2003 reduction is porting as well - but that number is unlikely to be large.

This indicates that porting continues to be within reasonable limits.

[soggadu]

Amen! Tathaastu!

Thank you sir ji.... my PD is OCT 22 2007... have been waiting... i know my wait is not much in comparison...

[mpurna77]

Very impressive analysis and calculations guys, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate and analytical. your predictions are very accurate with some basis.

I think you should be in Economic Reform Team to protect this country and world from this economic conditions.:-)

Great Job guys..Thank you.

[qesehmk]

Very good. Thanks imdeng.

Following is the reduction in EB3I demand from the last demand data two months back. The important figure is the last column - incremental reduction.

Year--July-10'2011--May-09'2011--Reduction--Incremental Reduction
2002--20--25--5--0
2003--6400--6900--500--495
2004--18325--19000--675--125
2005--32150--33050--900--225
2006--41125--42125--1000--100
2007--52125--53250--1125--125

If we consider any reduction in years 2004-2007 as a result of EB3->2 upgrades, then we get a total of (125+225+100+125) = 575 porting cases in two months. Now, it is possible that some of the 2003 reduction is porting as well - but that number is unlikely to be large.

This indicates that porting continues to be within reasonable limits.

You need to come back if you want to file AOS. That's what my wife had to do when we filed ours in 2007.



Hello:

Sorry to digress..What if my PD is current and I am in India and cannot travel immediately? Can I apply for processing from the US embassy in India? What are my options?

Know this is not a legal advice :)

Update : Me is not the principal applicant

[belmontboy]

Thank you sir ji.... my PD is OCT 22 2007... have been waiting... i know my wait is not much in comparison...

My PD is 8 days later than your's :)

[goforgreen]

Thanks Q, Teddy and Spec on your thoughts. With 12/2007 priority date I'll be eagerly waiting for the bulletin and your analysis ( or guidance?? like what companies give for the next quarter and year). Thanks a lot for your time and efforts in making predictions and calculations based on numbers and not shots in the dark or wishful thinking.

Q and Teddy -> I'm following your predictions from Immigration Voice site. Thanks a lot for your time, efforts and passion towards this. Also thanks a lot to Spectator and Veni for joining in Q and Teddy's efforts and making this site a very positive one where everyone respects one another. I used to visit other sites for info and news but now I've stopped visiting those alltogether. This is because here I dont have to go through pages of fights, bad behaviour, irrelevent posts to get to useful information that gives some hope.

Hats off to you guys, VDLRao was predictions 1.0 who started predictions with what ever data was available. You guys are Predictions 2.0 with numbers based intelligent predictions and calculations :)

[qblogfan]

Two thumbs up to Predictions 2.0!


Thanks Q, Teddy and Spec on your thoughts. With 12/2007 priority date I'll be eagerly waiting for the bulletin and your analysis ( or guidance?? like what companies give for the next quarter and year). Thanks a lot for your time and efforts in making predictions and calculations based on numbers and not shots in the dark or wishful thinking.

Q and Teddy -> I'm following your predictions from Immigration Voice site. Thanks a lot for your time, efforts and passion towards this. Also thanks a lot to Spectator and Veni for joining in Q and Teddy's efforts and making this site a very positive one where everyone respects one another. I used to visit other sites for info and news but now I've stopped visiting those alltogether. This is because here I dont have to go through pages of fights, bad behaviour, irrelevent posts to get to useful information that gives some hope.

Hats off to you guys, VDLRao was predictions 1.0 who started predictions with what ever data was available. You guys are Predictions 2.0 with numbers based intelligent predictions and calculations :)

[ragx08]

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....

AMEN!!!

Stay cool man! You should get there pretty soon!

[neospeed]

Hmm, trackitt down (:, looks like everyone bombarding it with requests.

[Spectator]

Very impressive, Q,S,V,TD... you guys are so accurate...making me feel spooky... One more example of the quality of discussions/predictions happening on this forum...

Bow to the calculations and predictions... you are spot on, on the remaining numbers pending... i pray you go wrong on the remaning SOFAD numbers and may they have more SOFAD than you predict.... someone quickly say AMEN....soggadu,

In the great scheme of things 2.5k is nothing (if that were the figure).

Often there is a slow down in approvals in Q4 for EB1 and EB2-ROW, possibly EB5, so available SOFAD can rise.

As I've said before, the numbers appear close enough that DOS can now probably do what they want to do, regardless of the exact numbers left.

I hope so anyway!

[mpurna77]

Its not down...its crawling with requests:-)

[soggadu]

soggadu,

In the great scheme of things 2.5k is nothing (if that were the figure).

Often there is a slow down in approvals in Q4 for EB1 and EB2-ROW, possibly EB5, so available SOFAD can rise.

As I've said before, the numbers appear close enough that DOS can now probably do what they want to do, regardless of the exact numbers left.

I hope so anyway!

I agree...

[kolugc]

Q,S,V,TD....

Been following this forum for a month or so now... Every day I am learning new things... Excellent work guys...

From what ever I understood from this forum, this is what I have figured...

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even June 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

or

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even Apr 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: Apr 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)
May 2012: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

Is this a good assumption? I mean realistic, All this is based on what I read here as well as thinking that NVC is a good indication to predict as T mentioned above.

[pch053]

The latest Demand Data is out!

Shows 10,450 IC to end of 2007 and 10,650 total IC Demand.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf
Spec,
I guess these pending numbers are probably from March'07 - Aug'07; they are saying that there are no pending numbers from 2006. So, I think they are considering almost all pending I485 up to March'07 have been approved, right? If our assumption of remaining spillovers is more towards 9,600 then PDs up to somewhere July'07 should get approval by the end of this year with a slim possibility of all remaining I485s might get approval. So the calculations are right on target so far.

P.S.: I think Q already answered the above question. Sorry, I missed Q's answer before posting!

[qesehmk]

A bit different ...

Aug 2011 - Jun 2007
Sep 2011 - Late 2007 upto Late 2008
Oct 2011 - Late 2007 upto Late 2008
Nov 2011 - Late 2007 upto Late 2008 & bounce back to Mid 2007
Dec 2011 - Mid 2007




Q,S,V,TD....

Been following this forum for a month or so now... Every day I am learning new things... Excellent work guys...

From what ever I understood from this forum, this is what I have figured...

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even June 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

or

Aug 2011: June 2007 - Aug 2007 (Or even Apr 30, 2008)
Sep 2011: Apr 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)
May 2012: June 30, 2008 (Based on the NVC receipt)

Is this a good assumption? I mean realistic, All this is based on what I read here as well as thinking that NVC is a good indication to predict as T mentioned above.

[iamdeb]

Gurus,

Pardon my understanding, but I thought PD has to be current once July 2007 is reached for EB2 as there is no data ahead of that. So once they consume the 10K numbers for completing 2007 shouldn't the EB2 PD become current briefly till they get in the fresh numbers?

[zenmaster]

Gurus,

Pardon my understanding, but I thought PD has to be current once July 2007 is reached for EB2 as there is no data ahead of that. So once they consume the 10K numbers for completing 2007 shouldn't the EB2 PD become current briefly till they get in the fresh numbers?

Not really. Check this Link (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf) - Para2.

VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into
monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported
to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The
determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables,
including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of
Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is
done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order
of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.

[kd2008]

Q, Spec, V, T Please check out this:

http://judiciary.house.gov/hearings/mark_07142011.html

Notice a "Fairness for High-Skilled Immigrants Act" It does not even have a number. I wonder how it showed up on the mark-up agenda.

Markups are a big deal. That means they are ready to take a vote on the committee and send it from the committee to the house floor for vote.

Of course, Senate Democrats will never vote on any thing that does not include CIR. So its going to be dead on arrival in Senate.

Its really interesting how the legislative process works in the U.S.

[Spectator]

Gurus,

Pardon my understanding, but I thought PD has to be current once July 2007 is reached for EB2 as there is no data ahead of that. So once they consume the 10K numbers for completing 2007 shouldn't the EB2 PD become current briefly till they get in the fresh numbers?Deb,

There is already demand into 2008, as the Demand Data already shows and probably more to come, as the recent cases that received fee requests submit Packet 3 and become documentarily qualified.

If DOS estimate available visas as less than the AOS cases to July/August 2007 + documentarily qualified CP cases to sometime in 2008, then there is no need to make the Category Current, since there would be at least one case that couldn't be approved with a PD in 2008. That would become the Cut Off Date.

I actually think ensuring there was some Demand in 2008 was something of a master stroke by DOS and pretty much ensures EB2 does not have to be made Current.

Certainly, the August Demand Data figures set that scenario up quite nicely, since it appears that at best, the available visas might just be enough to clear the current backlog plus a few.

I could be wrong, but it is a viable scenario.

[iamdeb]

Not really. Check this Link (http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf) - Para2.

VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into
monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported
to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment. The
determination of how many numbers are available requires consideration of several of variables,
including: past number use; estimates of future number use and return rates; and estimates of
Citizenship and Immigration Service demand based on cut-off date movements. Once this is
done, the cut-off dates are established and numbers are allocated to reported applicants in order
of their priority dates, the oldest dates first.

As Spec pointed earlier to me
totals of documentarily qualified applicants (EB2) which have been reported
to VO is 125 plus the ones who got the NVC receipt recently(which I believe wont be much). the estimates of future number use and return rates is an unknown quantity so I guess there isn't any parameter to advance the date.
experts please share your views.

Thanks,

Deb

[gc_usa]

Deb,

There is already demand into 2008, as the Demand Data already shows and probably more to come, as the recent cases that received fee requests submit Packet 3 and become documentarily qualified.

If DOS estimate available visas as less than the AOS cases to July/August 2007 + documentarily qualified CP cases to sometime in 2008, then there is no need to make the Category Current, since there would be at least one case that couldn't be approved with a PD in 2008. That would become the Cut Off Date.

I actually think ensuring there was some Demand in 2008 was something of a master stroke by DOS and pretty much ensures EB2 does not have to be made Current.

Certainly, the August Demand Data figures set that scenario up quite nicely, since it appears that at best, the available visas might just be enough to clear the current backlog plus a few.

I could be wrong, but it is a viable scenario.

If we know how many left than we can say if it will be current this month or next ? Do you guys have any numbers ?

[qesehmk]

Spec

On a second thought on Deb's point .... when they reach Sep 2011 or Oct 2011, if you look at EB2 as a category, if the date is still Aug 2007, the max numbers they will have in USCIS pipeline (not DOS pipeline) will be ROW (10K or less) and EB2IC (6K or less).

Which means DoS numbers will be even less... which would demand making teh entire category current because 16K is less than 40K annual quota. The only exception is if they look at 16K and compare to quarterly quota 10K.

If its the former then category should become current in Oct 2007. If USCISwants more gradual movement then they need to move it much farther in Sep then in Oct and in Nov and then stagnate. I am wondering even a swift forward and backward movement will continue to starve DOS pipeline since 485 takes some time to process.

Just a few thoughts.




Deb,

There is already demand into 2008, as the Demand Data already shows and probably more to come, as the recent cases that received fee requests submit Packet 3 and become documentarily qualified.

If DOS estimate available visas as less than the AOS cases to July/August 2007 + documentarily qualified CP cases to sometime in 2008, then there is no need to make the Category Current, since there would be at least one case that couldn't be approved with a PD in 2008. That would become the Cut Off Date.

I actually think ensuring there was some Demand in 2008 was something of a master stroke by DOS and pretty much ensures EB2 does not have to be made Current.

Certainly, the August Demand Data figures set that scenario up quite nicely, since it appears that at best, the available visas might just be enough to clear the current backlog plus a few.

I could be wrong, but it is a viable scenario.

[orangeca]

Don't know whether it is already posted: Fresh Demand Data

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[nishant2200]

Don't know whether it is already posted: Fresh Demand Data

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

It is already being discussed in last few pages. But nevertheless thanks for posting.

I know if it was some other website forums, people would pounce upon you for this, I have been there :)

[pch053]

This is probably a very basic question: for cumulative demand for EB2-ROW, it says 125 prior to Jan'11. But in the June data, we have seen a significant # of EB2-ROW pending cases from 2010 and 2011 (~10K - 11K). Does this mean, all (or most) of those EB2-ROW pending cases have been assigned a visa number, just like we are saying that all (or most) or EB2-I/C cases up to 7th March'07 have been allocated a visa number.

Thanks!

[qblogfan]

Those ROW EB2 are not ready for approval, so they are not counted as demand.



This is probably a very basic question: for cumulative demand for EB2-ROW, it says 125 prior to Jan'11. But in the June data, we have seen a significant # of EB2-ROW pending cases from 2010 and 2011 (~10K - 11K). Does this mean, all (or most) of those EB2-ROW pending cases have been assigned a visa number, just like we are saying that all (or most) or EB2-I/C cases up to 7th March'07 have been allocated a visa number.

Thanks!

[qblogfan]

Very good thought.

USCIS didn't accept any new 485 case (PD later than 07.07) in the past four years.

4 years!!!

Now it's time to open this gate, otherwise people have to wait for next summer. It will be 5 years!!!



Spec

On a second thought on Deb's point .... when they reach Sep 2011 or Oct 2011, if you look at EB2 as a category, if the date is still Aug 2007, the max numbers they will have in USCIS pipeline (not DOS pipeline) will be ROW (10K or less) and EB2IC (6K or less).

Which means DoS numbers will be even less... which would demand making teh entire category current because 16K is less than 40K annual quota. The only exception is if they look at 16K and compare to quarterly quota 10K.

If its the former then category should become current in Oct 2007. If USCISwants more gradual movement then they need to move it much farther in Sep then in Oct and in Nov and then stagnate. I am wondering even a swift forward and backward movement will continue to starve DOS pipeline since 485 takes some time to process.

Just a few thoughts.

[qesehmk]

Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

[sswaitinggc]

Hi Experts , I understand most of you know acronym of the terms related to GC "ROW","EB2IC","USCIS","DOS" etc....but i am sure few (like me) does not know what they mean (i dont know what ROW, EB2IC mean), Can some one expand these acronym's or direct where we can get this info pls...

[qblogfan]

I have a question.

Based on my understanding, DOS determines PD using monthly quota.

India and China only have 250 quota monthly. Since we may have 6000 or less China and India EB2 left after this FY, so our number will be bigger than 250. But at the same time, the demand from ROW is only 10k. Do you think they will increase our monthly quota to 500/month or sth?

My point is that the PD movement next FY will be determined based on two factors:

1.)will DOS look at the demand at a monthly level, a quarter level or a yearly level?
2.)will DOS constrain India/China EB2 visa allocation to 250/month or consider EB2 as a whole?


Spec

On a second thought on Deb's point .... when they reach Sep 2011 or Oct 2011, if you look at EB2 as a category, if the date is still Aug 2007, the max numbers they will have in USCIS pipeline (not DOS pipeline) will be ROW (10K or less) and EB2IC (6K or less).

Which means DoS numbers will be even less... which would demand making teh entire category current because 16K is less than 40K annual quota. The only exception is if they look at 16K and compare to quarterly quota 10K.

If its the former then category should become current in Oct 2007. If USCISwants more gradual movement then they need to move it much farther in Sep then in Oct and in Nov and then stagnate. I am wondering even a swift forward and backward movement will continue to starve DOS pipeline since 485 takes some time to process.

Just a few thoughts.

[ragx08]

Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

Thats great! Thanks to you and your source!!!

[ifaith]

Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

Amen, lets hope it comes today.
Thanks for the information

[sha_kus]

I like the Quote from the Identity theft company(Credit report).

"No news is good news"

I hope it holds same here. :)



Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your information!

I think it's possible that there will be a huge movement or minimum movement. Let's see.



Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

[imdeng]

Q - I agree with you and my sense is that DoS/USCIS have no choice but to take a large intake by Sept'11. The way I am seeing the publishing of Demand Data this month after the gap last month is that DOS/USCIS have determined that the numbers actually meet their policy objectives and they don't need to hide it anymore. That objective, in my mind, is that of taking a large intake - which would have been difficult if the demand data showed some demand left in Sept. I think that they are now convinced that they have 10K numbers this year to finish the remaining demand and hence would be able to push forward in Sept - so no harm done by publishing the demand data.

Now, we can argue that if you are taking a future demand intake - then why restrict it to 1 year - why not take an intake to say 2010 and have complete visibility for next couple years. This is less controversial than making it C and still meets the purpose of providing relief to people stuck in limbo of waiting to file 485. The concern that this will swamp USCIS is really not valid - USCIS does not need to process everything right away - they just need to store them until the PD becomes current. Further, they process a million GC every year - another 100K applications will not really overstretch them materially.

This summer has been one of pleasant surprises - I expect the trend to continue. I am boldly projecting EB2IC cutoff of 15-Aug-2007 in the Aug VB. If that happens then I am (even more boldly) projecting EB2IC cutoff of 15-Aug-2010 in Sept VB. However, people - please don't get your hopes too high on my word - I am perhaps projecting what I wish should happen into what I think would happen.


Spec

On a second thought on Deb's point .... when they reach Sep 2011 or Oct 2011, if you look at EB2 as a category, if the date is still Aug 2007, the max numbers they will have in USCIS pipeline (not DOS pipeline) will be ROW (10K or less) and EB2IC (6K or less).

Which means DoS numbers will be even less... which would demand making teh entire category current because 16K is less than 40K annual quota. The only exception is if they look at 16K and compare to quarterly quota 10K.

If its the former then category should become current in Oct 2007. If USCISwants more gradual movement then they need to move it much farther in Sep then in Oct and in Nov and then stagnate. I am wondering even a swift forward and backward movement will continue to starve DOS pipeline since 485 takes some time to process.

Just a few thoughts.

[nishant2200]

Hi Experts , I understand most of you know acronym of the terms related to GC "ROW","EB2IC","USCIS","DOS" etc....but i am sure few (like me) does not know what they mean (i dont know what ROW, EB2IC mean), Can some one expand these acronym's or direct where we can get this info pls...

see the first page of the forum, for Q's post about this acronyms and detailed logic about predictions.

[qesehmk]

1.)will DOS look at the demand at a monthly level, a quarter level or a yearly level?
2.)will DOS constrain India/China EB2 visa allocation to 250/month or consider EB2 as a whole?

Answer to the first is - most likely monthly.

Answer to teh second is - First they must look at EB as a whole then EB2 and then at country level.

[leo07]

Thank our 'Source', hez still trying to help us after getting his/her GC. That is something

Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your reply! Two thumbs up for your efforts!

Let's keep our fingers crossed.




Answer to the first is - most likely monthly.

Answer to teh second is - First they must look at EB as a whole then EB2 and then at country level.

[nishant2200]

Q - I agree with you and my sense is that DoS/USCIS have no choice but to take a large intake by Sept'11. The way I am seeing the publishing of Demand Data this month after the gap last month is that DOS/USCIS have determined that the numbers actually meet their policy objectives and they don't need to hide it anymore. That objective, in my mind, is that of taking a large intake - which would have been difficult if the demand data showed some demand left in Sept. I think that they are now convinced that they have 10K numbers this year to finish the remaining demand and hence would be able to push forward in Sept - so no harm done by publishing the demand data.

Now, we can argue that if you are taking a future demand intake - then why restrict it to 1 year - why not take an intake to say 2010 and have complete visibility for next couple years. This is less controversial than making it C and still meets the purpose of providing relief to people stuck in limbo of waiting to file 485. The concern that this will swamp USCIS is really not valid - USCIS does not need to process everything right away - they just need to store them until the PD becomes current. Further, they process a million GC every year - another 100K applications will not really overstretch them materially.

This summer has been one of pleasant surprises - I expect the trend to continue. I am boldly projecting EB2IC cutoff of 15-Aug-2007 in the Aug VB. If that happens then I am (even more boldly) projecting EB2IC cutoff of 15-Aug-2010 in Sept VB. However, people - please don't get your hopes too high on my word - I am perhaps projecting what I wish should happen into what I think would happen.

As Teddy said, things have happened which were not expected so far, so no harm in expecting the unexpected.

[MeraNoAayega]

Our source indicated that the visa bulletin will come out today afternoon or tomorrow morning. There was no other word on the movement itself.

mostly today afternoon around 3:00pm...:p

[Spectator]

Whilst we wait for the August VB, it occurred to me that there is one scenario that we haven't really discussed much, probably because it seems so unlikely.

It would be a gutsy move by the VO but has some advantages.

That would be to move the Cut Off Date to the latest date in the August VB itself (e.g. June 2008).

That then sets up two possibilities for for September VB.

a) Leave the Cut Off Date Unchanged - this allows two whole months for new I-485 filing before retrogressing the dates in October.

b) Retrogress the Cut Off Date to the true number of visas available - This could be done citing unexpected extra demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW. The advantage is that they would already have allowed new people to file and there would be no uncertainty going into FY2012 as to either when dates would retrogress, or advance and retrogress if they hadn't moved in FY2011. The year could start by using visas for cases that hadn't been approved due to lack of visas.

I haven't really thought it through, so there might be holes in the argument. Please feel free to criticize. I thought I would throw it out there whilst we all wait.



As a PS to imdeng. DOS have to have some plausible story as to the movement IMO. Moving it years, clearly invites demand way beyond the number of visas they could reasonably expect to have a visa immediately available, which is the definition for setting the Cut Off Date. I do see DOS having difficulties eventually in this regard. As noted, anything is possible.

[Stemcell]

Whilst we wait for the August VB, it occurred to me that there is one scenario that we haven't really discussed much, probably because it seems so unlikely.

It would be a gutsy move by the VO but has some advantages.

That would be to move the Cut Off Date to the latest date in the August VB itself (e.g. June 2008).

That then sets up two possibilities for for September VB.

a) Leave the Cut Off Date Unchanged - this allows two whole months for new I-485 filing before retrogressing the dates in October.

b) Retrogress the Cut Off Date to the true number of visas available - This could be done citing unexpected extra demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW. The advantage is that they would already have allowed new people to file and there would be no uncertainty going into FY2012 as to either when dates would retrogress, or advance and retrogress if they hadn't moved in FY2011. The year could start by using visas for cases that hadn't been approved due to lack of visas.

I haven't really thought it through, so there might be holes in the argument. Please feel free to criticize. I thought I would throw it out there whilst we all wait.



As a PS to imdeng. DOS have to have some plausible story as to the movement IMO. Moving it years, clearly invites demand way beyond the number of visas they could reasonably expect to have a visa immediately available, which is the definition for setting the Cut Off Date. I do see DOS having difficulties eventually in this regard. As noted, anything is possible.



Spec,
You probably havn't thought of this but i have been dreaming,wishing and dont know what else for this to happen (dates moving to 08 in Aug VB).

[Spectator]

My point is that the PD movement next FY will be determined based on two factors:

1.)will DOS look at the demand at a monthly level, a quarter level or a yearly level?
2.)will DOS constrain India/China EB2 visa allocation to 250/month or consider EB2 as a whole?qblogfan,

1. According to the OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document, it is monthly:


VO subdivides the annual preference and foreign state limitations specified by the INA into monthly allotments. The totals of documentarily qualified applicants which have been reported to VO, are compared each month with the numbers available for the next regular allotment.

but frankly I think they do what suits them best.

2. Again, depending on their aims, I suspect they will do what best fits.

The law only specifies the maximum number of visas that can be allocated in each of the first three quarters. There is no corresponding law stating a minimum. In theory, DOS don't have to allocate any visas in a given month. In theory, they can just wait to the known future demand comes on stream IMO.

[qblogfan]

I think it's very possible they may have significant movement in this August VB.

I looked at the family based VB and they moved the PD significantly in August 2010.

I think it's very likely this VB will move into 2008.


Whilst we wait for the August VB, it occurred to me that there is one scenario that we haven't really discussed much, probably because it seems so unlikely.

It would be a gutsy move by the VO but has some advantages.

That would be to move the Cut Off Date to the latest date in the August VB itself (e.g. June 2008).

That then sets up two possibilities for for September VB.

a) Leave the Cut Off Date Unchanged - this allows two whole months for new I-485 filing before retrogressing the dates in October.

b) Retrogress the Cut Off Date to the true number of visas available - This could be done citing unexpected extra demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW. The advantage is that they would already have allowed new people to file and there would be no uncertainty going into FY2012 as to either when dates would retrogress, or advance and retrogress if they hadn't moved in FY2011. The year could start by using visas for cases that hadn't been approved due to lack of visas.

I haven't really thought it through, so there might be holes in the argument. Please feel free to criticize. I thought I would throw it out there whilst we all wait.



As a PS to imdeng. DOS have to have some plausible story as to the movement IMO. Moving it years, clearly invites demand way beyond the number of visas they could reasonably expect to have a visa immediately available, which is the definition for setting the Cut Off Date. I do see DOS having difficulties eventually in this regard. As noted, anything is possible.

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your explanation! What you said makes sense.

Let's keep fingers crossed and wait for the August VB.


qblogfan,

1. According to the OPERATION OF THE IMMIGRANT NUMERICAL CONTROL SYSTEM document, it is monthly:



but frankly I think they do what suits them best.

2. Again, depending on their aims, I suspect they will do what best fits.

The law only specifies the maximum number of visas that can be allocated in each of the first three quarters. There is no corresponding law stating a minimum. In theory, DOS don't have to allocate any visas in a given month. In theory, they can just wait to the known future demand comes on stream IMO.

[pdmay2008]

This is my first post in this forum. First of all Thanks to our GC Gurus (Spec,Q, Teddy and Veni) for their hard work in putting all their experience and perspectives on these predictions.

I wish all of us to become current, but that's not what I am hearing. Let us all hope for the best.

[dontcareaboutGC]

Spec- CIS/ DOS advanced the date for FB by 2 years when they arrived at a similar situation- I wonder what reasoning they were able to use then!!


Whilst we wait for the August VB, it occurred to me that there is one scenario that we haven't really discussed much, probably because it seems so unlikely.

It would be a gutsy move by the VO but has some advantages.

That would be to move the Cut Off Date to the latest date in the August VB itself (e.g. June 2008).

That then sets up two possibilities for for September VB.

a) Leave the Cut Off Date Unchanged - this allows two whole months for new I-485 filing before retrogressing the dates in October.

b) Retrogress the Cut Off Date to the true number of visas available - This could be done citing unexpected extra demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW. The advantage is that they would already have allowed new people to file and there would be no uncertainty going into FY2012 as to either when dates would retrogress, or advance and retrogress if they hadn't moved in FY2011. The year could start by using visas for cases that hadn't been approved due to lack of visas.

I haven't really thought it through, so there might be holes in the argument. Please feel free to criticize. I thought I would throw it out there whilst we all wait.



As a PS to imdeng. DOS have to have some plausible story as to the movement IMO. Moving it years, clearly invites demand way beyond the number of visas they could reasonably expect to have a visa immediately available, which is the definition for setting the Cut Off Date. I do see DOS having difficulties eventually in this regard. As noted, anything is possible.

[nishant2200]

Whilst we wait for the August VB, it occurred to me that there is one scenario that we haven't really discussed much, probably because it seems so unlikely.

It would be a gutsy move by the VO but has some advantages.

That would be to move the Cut Off Date to the latest date in the August VB itself (e.g. June 2008).

That then sets up two possibilities for for September VB.

a) Leave the Cut Off Date Unchanged - this allows two whole months for new I-485 filing before retrogressing the dates in October.

b) Retrogress the Cut Off Date to the true number of visas available - This could be done citing unexpected extra demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW. The advantage is that they would already have allowed new people to file and there would be no uncertainty going into FY2012 as to either when dates would retrogress, or advance and retrogress if they hadn't moved in FY2011. The year could start by using visas for cases that hadn't been approved due to lack of visas.

I haven't really thought it through, so there might be holes in the argument. Please feel free to criticize. I thought I would throw it out there whilst we all wait.



As a PS to imdeng. DOS have to have some plausible story as to the movement IMO. Moving it years, clearly invites demand way beyond the number of visas they could reasonably expect to have a visa immediately available, which is the definition for setting the Cut Off Date. I do see DOS having difficulties eventually in this regard. As noted, anything is possible.

Spec, I have been with this scenario since a while, I proposed bits and parts of it here earlier, but seeing not much agreement on this hypothesis, thought maybe it's just my PD coloring my view and biasing me. Now since VB can be out anytime, I am just letting the VB vindicate this view point. Let's see.

[harick]

Spec,
I agree with your predictions. I am also thinking that in August VB dates might move to Dec 2007, this will give them an opportunity to assess the demand correctly. Depending upon the demand received in August, in September VB either they can advance the PD by couple of months or stay at Dec'07.


Whilst we wait for the August VB, it occurred to me that there is one scenario that we haven't really discussed much, probably because it seems so unlikely.

It would be a gutsy move by the VO but has some advantages.

That would be to move the Cut Off Date to the latest date in the August VB itself (e.g. June 2008).

That then sets up two possibilities for for September VB.

a) Leave the Cut Off Date Unchanged - this allows two whole months for new I-485 filing before retrogressing the dates in October.

b) Retrogress the Cut Off Date to the true number of visas available - This could be done citing unexpected extra demand from EB1 and EB2-ROW. The advantage is that they would already have allowed new people to file and there would be no uncertainty going into FY2012 as to either when dates would retrogress, or advance and retrogress if they hadn't moved in FY2011. The year could start by using visas for cases that hadn't been approved due to lack of visas.

I haven't really thought it through, so there might be holes in the argument. Please feel free to criticize. I thought I would throw it out there whilst we all wait.



As a PS to imdeng. DOS have to have some plausible story as to the movement IMO. Moving it years, clearly invites demand way beyond the number of visas they could reasonably expect to have a visa immediately available, which is the definition for setting the Cut Off Date. I do see DOS having difficulties eventually in this regard. As noted, anything is possible.

[Spectator]

Spec- CIS/ DOS advanced the date for FB by 2 years when they arrived at a similar situation- I wonder what reasoning they were able to use then!!


I agree it probably isn't totally explainable.

DOS should have better visibility of FB because most are Consular Processed and therefore at the NVC.

Because the wait times are so long and the people are not in the USA, there is a high attrition rate, so when their appointments became due, people simply didn't pursue it. The poor state of the US economy probably didn't help.

That would have led to visas being available but not enough demand and the Cut Off Dates had to be advanced.

At a certain point, people, especially those who hadn't been waiting quite as long, all responded and visa numbers available became less than demand. Some of the older PDs, who had put off final action probably thought we had better do something now, fearing all the visas would be used, adding to the numbers.

You're correct though, we can't entirely rule out an aggressive movement, although the fact that fee requests don't appear to have been sent out much beyond June 2008 seems to count against that.

[imdeng]

Spec - I think the fee requests represent the floor and not the ceiling. Fee requests indicate that they are ready to issue the visa in next few months - hence they can't send a fee request for a date too far in future. PD on the other hand, can go into future beyond the latest fee request.

Plus I don't think DoS/USCIS need too persuasive a rationale for being very aggressive in PDs. Something on the line of "Uncertainty regarding whether a significant number of PERM approvals will convert into 485 demand because of weaker economy and layoffs" will be enough I think. It is a policy decision and once they arrive at a policy it is not too difficult to find arguments to substantiate it.


You're correct though, we can't entirely rule out an aggressive movement, although the fact that fee requests don't appear to have been sent out much beyond June 2008 seems to count against that.


As a PS to imdeng. DOS have to have some plausible story as to the movement IMO. Moving it years, clearly invites demand way beyond the number of visas they could reasonably expect to have a visa immediately available, which is the definition for setting the Cut Off Date. I do see DOS having difficulties eventually in this regard. As noted, anything is possible.

[28thJune2007]

Here is some shayari to cheer up everyone who is waiting

"Kaate Nahin Kat Te Lamhe Intezaar Ke, Nazaren Bichaein Baithe Hain Raste Pe Yaar Ke"

My prediction for this VB : July 01 2007

[veni001]

Spec- CIS/ DOS advanced the date for FB by 2 years when they arrived at a similar situation- I wonder what reasoning they were able to use then!!


I agree it probably isn't totally explainable.

DOS should have better visibility of FB because most are Consular Processed and therefore at the NVC.

Because the wait times are so long and the people are not in the USA, there is a high attrition rate, so when their appointments became due, people simply didn't pursue it. The poor state of the US economy probably didn't help.

That would have led to visas being available but not enough demand and the Cut Off Dates had to be advanced.

At a certain point, people, especially those who hadn't been waiting quite as long, all responded and visa numbers available became less than demand. Some of the older PDs, who had put off final action probably thought we had better do something now, fearing all the visas would be used, adding to the numbers.

You're correct though, we can't entirely rule out an aggressive movement, although the fact that fee requests don't appear to have been sent out much beyond June 2008 seems to count against that.


Spec,
You are correct, here is the explanation provided by DOS regarding rapid FB movement last year.

"There continues to be extremely rapid forward movement of most Family preference cut-off dates. This is a direct result of the lack of demand by potential applicants who have chosen not to pursue final action on their cases, or who may no longer be eligible for status. The rapid movement provides the best opportunity to maximize number use under the FY-2010 annual numerical limitations. Should applicants eventually decide to pursue action on their cases it will have a significant impact on the cut-off dates."

[nishant2200]

Spec,
You are correct, here is the explanation provided by DOS regarding rapid FB movement last year.

"There continues to be extremely rapid forward movement of most Family preference cut-off dates. This is a direct result of the lack of demand by potential applicants who have chosen not to pursue final action on their cases, or who may no longer be eligible for status. The rapid movement provides the best opportunity to maximize number use under the FY-2010 annual numerical limitations. Should applicants eventually decide to pursue action on their cases it will have a significant impact on the cut-off dates."

And I think this is exactly what they are doing right now, thinking of what wording to put, and that is why no VB so far :)

[Spectator]

Spec,
You are correct, here is the explanation provided by DOS regarding rapid FB movement last year.

"There continues to be extremely rapid forward movement of most Family preference cut-off dates. This is a direct result of the lack of demand by potential applicants who have chosen not to pursue final action on their cases, or who may no longer be eligible for status. The rapid movement provides the best opportunity to maximize number use under the FY-2010 annual numerical limitations. Should applicants eventually decide to pursue action on their cases it will have a significant impact on the cut-off dates."Veni,

Thanks for digging that up.

I must have subliminally remembered it! :D