EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[gcq]

While many people believe July fiasco was to build an inventory for USCIS, here is an interesting explanation.

http://ebimmigrationreference.blogspot.com/2010/07/cir-2007-hypothesis.html



IMO July fiasco (making everything current) was the effect of CIR 2007. That was intentional move by DOS in anticipation of a passage of CIR. When they were sure that CIR won't pass, they reverted the bulletin back and rest is history.


Here are the dates:

CIR 2007 introduced in Senate on: May 9, 2007
CIR Vote on cloture fails in Senate: June 7 2007July 2007 visa bullettin released on :June 12 2007.

A related bill S. 1639 fails on: June 28, 2007
Bulletin was reversed on :July 2, 2007

S. 1639 failed on June 28, visa bulletin was reversed on July 2
July visa bulletin had already come out on June 12 2007.
The decision to publish this bulletin might have been taken sometime in May 2007.
Even if we base the events on the Original CIR 2007 which failed on June 7 2007, it would have taken sometime to communicate the decision to revert the bulletin to USCIS.

Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Immigration_Reform_Act_of_2007)

[qesehmk]

certainly very interesting thanks! Gave you a props for this.


While many people believe July fiasco was to build an inventory for USCIS, here is an interesting explanation.

http://ebimmigrationreference.blogspot.com/2010/07/cir-2007-hypothesis.html

[bieber]

Q

since QE2 ended yesterday, for time being, dollar will be strong till we wait FOMC meeting in later this year. we should have this discussion in 'general immigration discussion' :)

I'm not an expert either but learnt enough to act like one :)

[Spectator]

Making EB2 current won't result in uncontrolled intake of applications. Remember unlike July 2007 where many categories were current, this time we are looking only EB2 to be current. Intake may be around 65000-140000 at best. Right now amongst all categories USCIS receives about 50000-45000 applications per month anyways.KD,

I humbly disagree.

NSC and TSC (which is all that counts for EB) take in about 16k applications a month (averaged Oct 2009 to April 2011) and some of those are refugee and asylum cases.

Last time, it took over a year to pre-adjudicate the cases, once they started in around September 2008.

Whilst that was for a larger number (170k), I don't think they have that sort of resource available to them now for a repeat performance.

The best the two Service Centers have ever managed in a single month for receipts since October 2008 is just over 20k.

[gcseeker]

Q

Nice thoughts on the policy direction and why they will not make EB2 current.I agree fully and do not wish to sidetrack the attention from the calculations effort being put in the thread.Just some brief thoughts... It is an matter of policy which is heavily influenced by politics and special interest groups.Obama has an tough election ahead of him and general unemployment is close to 20% (U6 numbers not U3 9.5% unemployment numbers..including those who quit looking for work) . Tech unemployment might be 4-5% but these are not the huge votebanks that will keep Obama in power.No party ..I repeat no party will even touch Immigration with a barge pole right now.If the Latino segment which is huge and has an huge votebank and with almost 10-11 serving Latino senators cannot even arm twist the democrats into passing CIR ...what to say of the Indian/Chinese segment which is so fragmented and does not have any political weight to throw around

99.9% Neither EB2 nor EB3 will be current. USCIS will move dates in a controlled manner.Its political masters will make sure it does that no matter how much effort they have to put .

[qesehmk]

agree lets take it there!
Q

since QE2 ended yesterday, for time being, dollar will be strong till we wait FOMC meeting in later this year. we should have this discussion in 'general immigration discussion' :)

I'm not an expert either but learnt enough to act like one :)

[Gclongwait]

Q

Nice thoughts on the policy direction and why they will not make EB2 current.I agree fully and do not wish to sidetrack the attention from the calculations effort being put in the thread.Just some brief thoughts... It is an matter of policy which is heavily influenced by politics and special interest groups.Obama has an tough election ahead of him and general unemployment is close to 20% (U6 numbers not U3 9.5% unemployment numbers..including those who quit looking for work) . Tech unemployment might be 4-5% but these are not the huge votebanks that will keep Obama in power.No party ..I repeat no party will even touch Immigration with a barge pole right now.If the Latino segment which is huge and has an huge votebank and with almost 10-11 serving Latino senators cannot even arm twist the democrats into passing CIR ...what to say of the Indian/Chinese segment which is so fragmented and does not have any political weight to throw around

99.9% Neither EB2 nor EB3 will be current. USCIS will move dates in a controlled manner.Its political masters will make sure it does that no matter how much effort they have to put .

I agree. I dont think they are going to make it current. Infact I think if they have to move ahead to Q1/Q2 '08 or wherever (based on NVC fee receipts), they should do it in the August bulletin rather than Sep. The reasoning is

1. They would move it for 2 reasons, to get an idea of the future pipeline and to make sure they dont waste visas. They probably wont waste visas even if they probably dont move it but they dont know that for sure

2. From what I heard if you are current in August, your interview is scheduled for Sep at the consulate and you have to be current at the time of the interview, so moving in August is the only way to use CP folks for consuming visas.

So if it doesnt happen next week, I think the chances in Sep may be even lesser.

[Stemcell]

While many people believe July fiasco was to build an inventory for USCIS, here is an interesting explanation.

http://ebimmigrationreference.blogspot.com/2010/07/cir-2007-hypothesis.html

In a lighter vein.....CIR was introduced again in June 2011 so lets see :p

[kolugc]

I am fairly new here. It took 3 days for me to go through those 136 pages here, but was really a great experience reading it. Never been to an informative site as this one before. I had seen some other predictions, but was thinking those were just guesses, may be they were not, but here I see the technical backings for any predictions and so its more convincing and makes sense.

Thank you guys for putting up something together and holding it out there. Mostly its very informative and helps to understand how these things work. And it really helps to have some calculated plans for my life and career.

With all those reliable information and assumptions we have now, is it realistic to assume the following predictions to happen?

Aug - 01-JUN-2007
Sep - 15-AUG-2007 (or/between) 15-Jun-2008
Oct - 15-Jun-2008 (or/between) 01-JUN-2007 (retrogressed)

I am such a rookie and so had never heard about the NVC fee requests or CP before, now that I read that NVC fee was requested for a June 14, 2008 PD EB2 I, can I assume that the EB2I dates are going to move to June 15, 2008 in another 2-4 months for sure (100%)? or its not necessarily that way all the time?

My PD is June 9, 2008 and thats how I got so keen to investigate more on this NVC fee for this EB2I guy and its after affects...

Once again thanks guys for educating me and many here...

[nishant2200]

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processing-14/eb2-india-priority-dates-consular-processing-14436/index2.html

see here the reply by Peter Clark on 6/29/2011. This is coming from reputed attorney, he is partner of Ron Gotcher.

"The NVC will proactively send the immigrant visa Fee bill in advance of your priority date becoming current. This is particularly true if they feel that it is likely that your priority date will become current soon. Our firm has seen cases with 2008 priority dates where the NVC has issued the immigrant visa fee bill and we have proceeded with the filing of the consular processing application. Now it is a matter of waiting for the priority date to become current."

[suninphx]

In a lighter vein.....CIR was introduced again in June 2011 so lets see :p

On another lighter note most of the recent posts ( including mine) prove the fact that our thoughts are primarily driven by our PD. :)

[veni001]

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/consular-processing-14/eb2-india-priority-dates-consular-processing-14436/index2.html

see here the reply by Peter Clark on 6/29/2011. This is coming from reputed attorney, he is partner of Ron Gotcher.

"The NVC will proactively send the immigrant visa Fee bill in advance of your priority date becoming current. This is particularly true if they feel that it is likely that your priority date will become current soon. Our firm has seen cases with 2008 priority dates where the NVC has issued the immigrant visa fee bill and we have proceeded with the filing of the consular processing application. Now it is a matter of waiting for the priority date to become current."

I think this is the first time, since we started seeing NVC Fee request posts, some one from a law firm confirming it.
Which means, most like we will see EB2IC cutoff dates move to early 2008 in August '11 VB itself, to accommodate CP interviews at consulates abroad before end of FY 2011!(Aug & Sept)!

[kd2008]

KD,

I humbly disagree.

NSC and TSC (which is all that counts for EB) take in about 16k applications a month (averaged Oct 2009 to April 2011) and some of those are refugee and asylum cases.

Last time, it took over a year to pre-adjudicate the cases, once they started in around September 2008.

Whilst that was for a larger number (170k), I don't think they have that sort of resource available to them now for a repeat performance.

The best the two Service Centers have ever managed in a single month for receipts since October 2008 is just over 20k.

Spec, I think most of the applications now go to a lockbox. But still, application intake is totally different than adjudication process. Moreover, considering USCIS transformation expenses, fall in revenue from past years etc, USCIS would more than welcome an infusion of cash whether or not the have the capacity to handle it.

[neospeed]

While many people believe July fiasco was to build an inventory for USCIS, here is an interesting explanation.

http://ebimmigrationreference.blogspot.com/2010/07/cir-2007-hypothesis.html

Here is another explaination from Ron Gotcher regarding the July fiasco:

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/reason-behind-july-2007-fiasco-anything-to-do-with-comprehensive-immigration-reform-13887/

First, I have to object to the use of the term "fiasco." That is a CIS term. To them it was a fiasco, but one that was prompted by their incompetence. For everyone else, it was a welcome slap in the face of the CIS that forced them to get their act together and start doing their job.

The CIS did not then and does not now have anything at all to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. The cutoff dates are managed by the State Department. That agency is responsible for allocating visas each year and, more importantly, seeing to it that visas are not wasted under the quota. According to the USCIS Ombudsman, prior to 2007 the INS and the CIS, through their incompetence, had wasted more than 600,000 visas in the 1995-2006 interval. They did this by failing to approve enough adjustment of status applications each year to use up the quota. If visas are not used in the year in which they are allocated, they are lost forever.

In 2007, the State Department saw that the CIS was on pace to approve about 85,000 adjustment applications. That would have resulted in at least 40,000 visas being wasted. To prevent that from happening, the State Department decided to make everyone "current" in the month of July. That allowed overseas consular posts to issue visas to people who had opted for consular processing and those additional visa issuances would have then exhausted the quota. It also acted as a humiliating slap in the face to the CIS and forced them to start approving cases at a faster rate.

[veni001]

Here is another explaination from Ron Gotcher regarding the July fiasco:

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/reason-behind-july-2007-fiasco-anything-to-do-with-comprehensive-immigration-reform-13887/

First, I have to object to the use of the term "fiasco." That is a CIS term. To them it was a fiasco, but one that was prompted by their incompetence. For everyone else, it was a welcome slap in the face of the CIS that forced them to get their act together and start doing their job.

The CIS did not then and does not now have anything at all to do with setting Visa Bulletin cutoff dates. The cutoff dates are managed by the State Department. That agency is responsible for allocating visas each year and, more importantly, seeing to it that visas are not wasted under the quota. According to the USCIS Ombudsman, prior to 2007 the INS and the CIS, through their incompetence, had wasted more than 600,000 visas in the 1995-2006 interval. They did this by failing to approve enough adjustment of status applications each year to use up the quota. If visas are not used in the year in which they are allocated, they are lost forever.

In 2007, the State Department saw that the CIS was on pace to approve about 85,000 adjustment applications. That would have resulted in at least 40,000 visas being wasted. To prevent that from happening, the State Department decided to make everyone "current" in the month of July. That allowed overseas consular posts to issue visas to people who had opted for consular processing and those additional visa issuances would have then exhausted the quota. It also acted as a humiliating slap in the face to the CIS and forced them to start approving cases at a faster rate.


Q,
Which is true prior to July 2007 fiasco, but not any more!

Please check this out....

Collaboration with DOS (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=71f24d6c52c99110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD)

"USCIS works with DOS more closely than ever to exchange information that is critical for managing visa allocation and for targeting future production efforts. We are now in weekly contact with the Chief of DOS’s Visa Unit to communicate current inventories per country and preference class to better determine each month’s visa bulletin. DOS provides regular updates to USCIS on past visa number usage and remaining numeric allocations per country and preference class. DOS also shares its forecast for priority date movement in upcoming visa bulletins so that USCIS can adjust production in advance for maximum visa number usage.

USCIS and DOS are also working together on a plan to forward all approved family-based visa petitions to DOS, including those where the petitioner indicates the beneficiary will apply for adjustment of status in the United States. This will enhance the ability of DOS to accurately forecast demand for visa numbers and more precisely manage the establishment of priority dates to meter the intake of applications for adjustment of status to match visa availability."

neospeed,
Which is true before July 2007 but not any more......

[Osaka001]

kd2008,
Based on the PERM certification data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI), there are ~100k EBIC PERM since July 2007 and another 100K ROWMP PERM. If we use 70-30 for IC and 60-40 for ROWMP, then there isn't big difference between making EB2IC current Vs making every one current! (140k new filings Vs 300k)

Just for number sake, EB2IC demand ~= EB3IC+EB3ROWMP demand.

What DOS is supposed to do, when more visas are available than the number of documentarily qualified people, They need to make it current? or It is their discretion to move it to any date?, Is there any policy about it.
Can USCIS guide them to move date as per the I-140 data available with them.

[qesehmk]

Technically visas cant fall down to EB3 unless EB2 category becomes current. That's why the August movement will be so much critical because it will be indicative of whether there is enough SOFAD that can result in FD to EB3.


What DOS is supposed to do, when more visas are available than the number of documentarily qualified people, They need to make it current? or It is their discretion to move it to any date?,
Can USCIS guide them to move date as per the I-140 data available with them.

[gcq]

As far as Ron Gotcher is concerned, I have observed that he has a "soft corner" for DOS(visa office). I have never seen him criticize CO despite CO making lots of mistakes.

Some of them.
Incorrectly interpreting AC21 spillover.
EB3-I/C discrimination in 2009.
Latest, COs rumor(predictions) about EB3-to Eb2 upgrades and how it is going to slow down EB2 PDs. This caused panic in internet forums which was later proven wrong by date movement in last 2 visa bulletins.

IMO CO should be making a lawful progression of PDs rather than speculating and creating sensation.

[veni001]

What DOS is supposed to do, when more visas are available than the number of documentarily qualified people, They need to make it current? or It is their discretion to move it to any date?, Is there any policy about it.
Can USCIS guide them to move date as per the I-140 data available with them.

Osaka001,
In that case what could happen is...

1. Significant forward movement for EB2IC cut-off dates( or even "C") so that CP cases can consume those additional VISAs
2. In-addition to #1, significant forward movement for EB3ROWMP cut-off dates to utilize any spillover that may be available( chances are minimal to none) from EB2-->EB3

But i would guess, just like other Guru's here, the reality will be in between and the actual decision will be based on DOS/USCIUS coordination/discretion.

[shivarajan]

I think this is the first time, since we started seeing NVC Fee request posts, some one from a law firm confirming it.
Which means, most like we will see EB2IC cutoff dates move to early 2008 in August '11 VB itself, to accommodate CP interviews at consulates abroad before end of FY 2011!(Aug & Sept)!

Sounds great & exciting!
(all we need is damm ead)

May the force be with us. :o

[TeddyKoochu]

Osaka001,
In that case what could happen is...

1. Significant forward movement for EB2IC cut-off dates( or even "C") so that CP cases can consume those additional VISAs
2. In-addition to #1, significant forward movement for EB3ROWMP cut-off dates to utilize any spillover that may be available( chances are minimal to none) from EB2-->EB3

But i would guess, just like other Guru's here, the reality will be in between and the actual decision will be based on DOS/USCIUS coordination/discretion.

Veni, you are right now it’s really upto DOS / USCIS discretion. Another 12 of SOFAD is possible and that can clean all the preadjudicated cases completely in reality I believe only ~8-10K maybe left assuming 25-26K SOFAD is already consumed, additionally they are also sitting on a huge stockpile of EB2 ROW and EB1 cases. One interesting thing to note is that on Trackitt EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals are still coming by but EB3 ROW approvals and even EB3 India are very less this may indicate that numbers on that side are exhausted. Bulk of the movement atleast till 01-JUN-2007 (6-7K SOFAD) should happen in the Aug bulletin itself. August bulletin will be very critical litmus test atleast with regards if they plan to have additional intake in FY2011 itself. Lets wait and watch. Today due to the long weekend there have been virtually no reports of approvals. But I hope they will start next week and they will have good indicators before the next bulletin.

[qesehmk]

Guys ...trackitt trend updated. Please check the trackitt based predictions thread in FACTS and DATA section.

Basically the trend has deteriorated slightly. Yet ...I feel confident that through Sep 2011 most 485 EB2IC cases through Jun 2007 will be assigned a visa. The best case will be that all EB2IC cases through Aug 2007 that are already filed will be assigned visa plus there could be some miniscule FD given to EB3.

[Spectator]

Teddy, that is an interesting observation about EB3.

I agree that EB3-I appears to have used or nearly used the allocation for the year. DOS, compared to last year, appeared to front load the approvals. I suspect any remaining are Consular returns. Even allowing for error in the Trackitt ratio, there can't be more than a few hundred visas left. I would not be surprised if EB3-I becomes Unavailable before the end of the FY.

EB3-ROW, on the other hand is a bit of a mystery. Like EB3-I, the approvals have been more front loaded this year (55% of all Trackitt EB3-ROW approvals were in August-September in FY2010). USCIS seem very slow in closing EB3-ROW cases out. There are still several thousand's worth pending in Trackitt that became current as early as the May VB.

Even by the most pessimistic estimates, EB3-ROW should receive at least 22k visas this year. To date, they only appear to have received around 15.7k. Either EB3-M&P are receiving unprecedented numbers of visas this year (difficult because P shares the same Cut Off Date as ROW and M can only get about 8k max in EB3 [which they did last year]), or there are a lot of EB3-ROW approvals still to come. Otherwise, EB3 will not reach the 28.6% allocation and ROW will lose visas again.

The other alternative is that the Trackitt % for EB3-ROW has dropped significantly. That could be the case, but my gut feeling from looking at Trackitt threads by ROW, is that is not the case.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, that is an interesting observation about EB3.

I agree that EB3-I appears to have used or nearly used the allocation for the year. DOS, compared to last year, appeared to front load the approvals. I suspect any remaining are Consular returns. Even allowing for error in the Trackitt ratio, there can't be more than a few hundred visas left. I would not be surprised if EB3-I becomes Unavailable before the end of the FY.

EB3-ROW, on the other hand is a bit of a mystery. Like EB3-I, the approvals have been more front loaded this year (55% of all Trackitt EB3-ROW approvals were in August-September in FY2010). USCIS seem very slow in closing EB3-ROW cases out. There are still several thousand's worth pending in Trackitt that became current as early as the May VB.

Even by the most pessimistic estimates, EB3-ROW should receive at least 22k visas this year. To date, they only appear to have received around 15.7k. Either EB3-M&P are receiving unprecedented numbers of visas this year (difficult because P shares the same Cut Off Date as ROW and M can only get about 8k max in EB3 [which they did last year]), or there are a lot of EB3-ROW approvals still to come. Otherwise, EB3 will not reach the 28.6% allocation and ROW will lose visas again.

The other alternative is that the Trackitt % for EB3-ROW has dropped significantly. That could be the case, but my gut feeling from looking at Trackitt threads by ROW, is that is not the case.

Spec I fully agree with you both Mexico and Philippines will grab huge amount of visas for EB3 this year even more because the EB2 and EB1 usages are down. So if their EB1 and EB2 usage is less they can grab as much as 7K each so EB3 ROW cap might be reduced to as low as 22K with India and China getting their fair share, agree it can’t get any more drastic. 245I demand is still coming by. The more important point as you say is that approvals have been front loaded this year. Even for EB2 this time the spillover started in May rather than July. We should all be cognizant to the fact 25-26K SOFAD has been burnt out. The maximum we could really see over this would be another 12K. I believe they really intend to have September more as a finishing month we should see most of the spillover in Aug with September being spillover for spillover generated in the last quarter. Now how this 12K would come by I believe they used up 50% of EB5 so it could really be 4K each from EB1, EB2 ROW and EB5 we cannot ignore the stockpile of the EB1 and Eb2 ROW applications that are there. I agree with Q that in reality the numbers are available only to approve pre-adjudicated cases till June. The coming 2 bulletins will have a huge element of discretion by the agencies if they decide to take up extra demand. Taking fresh intake till Q1 2008 is almost imperative but it is entirely discretionary when that’s going to happen. Today has not been a good day with regards approvals I did not see even a single approval anywhere I hope it’s the long weekend. The next VB will depend on how confident USCIS is about clearing cases that are current so early next week is critical the VB might come out the week following the next week.

[Gclongwait]

Does the pre adjudication process mean that all I 485 up for visas will be approved? At least I haven't come across any denials in blogs etc. So if you are pre adjudicated and not denied as yet that means you are through or do they approve or deny only after your date is current.

[qesehmk]

Teddy nice thought process. See that's what I think people need to understand. That none of us have crystal balls really. There are lots of ifs and buts to lots of things and finally there is USCIS's discretion/policy.


Spec I fully agree with you both Mexico and Philippines will grab huge amount of visas for EB3 this year even more because the EB2 and EB1 usages are down. So if their EB1 and EB2 usage is less they can grab as much as 7K each so EB3 ROW cap might be reduced to as low as 22K with India and China getting their fair share, agree it can’t get any more drastic. 245I demand is still coming by. The more important point as you say is that approvals have been front loaded this year. Even for EB2 this time the spillover started in May rather than July. We should all be cognizant to the fact 25-26K SOFAD has been burnt out. The maximum we could really see over this would be another 12K. I believe they really intend to have September more as a finishing month we should see most of the spillover in Aug with September being spillover for spillover generated in the last quarter. Now how this 12K would come by I believe they used up 50% of EB5 so it could really be 4K each from EB1, EB2 ROW and EB5 we cannot ignore the stockpile of the EB1 and Eb2 ROW applications that are there. I agree with Q that in reality the numbers are available only to approve pre-adjudicated cases till June. The coming 2 bulletins will have a huge element of discretion by the agencies if they decide to take up extra demand. Taking fresh intake till Q1 2008 is almost imperative but it is entirely discretionary when that’s going to happen. Today has not been a good day with regards approvals I did not see even a single approval anywhere I hope it’s the long weekend. The next VB will depend on how confident USCIS is about clearing cases that are current so early next week is critical the VB might come out the week following the next week.


Does the pre adjudication process mean that all I 485 up for visas will be approved? At least I haven't come across any denials in blogs etc. So if you are pre adjudicated and not denied as yet that means you are through or do they approve or deny only after your date is current.
I think so. If it was not approved-adjudicated why would it wait for a visa to be assigned.

[neospeed]

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35288

This pdf gives some insight about eb5 approvals

FY11 Q1&Q2 2,129*

*Preliminary Estimate of FY11 Q1&Q2 Visas Issued

[qesehmk]

This is great info. Thanks neospeed. In summary it would mean 3200 EB5 visa grants for full year thus yielding approx 7K SOFAD.


http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35288

This pdf gives some insight about eb5 approvals

FY11 Q1&Q2 2,129*

*Preliminary Estimate of FY11 Q1&Q2 Visas Issued

[Spectator]

Thanks neospeed for the great information.


This is great info. Thanks neospeed. In summary it would mean 3200 EB5 visa grants for full year thus yielding approx 7K SOFAD.

Q,

Those figures are for visas issued in Q1 & Q2, so the total for the year could be as high as 4.2k of the 9.9k available, if the trend continued in Q3 and Q4.

That would only be 5.7k towards spillover. Probably the truth lies somewhere between.

[qesehmk]

Spec

So yes ... 1600 for Q1/2 means 3200 for full year right?


Thanks neospeed for the great information.



Q,

Those figures are for visas issued in Q1 & Q2, so the total for the year could be as high as 4.2k of the 9.9k available, if the trend continued in Q3 and Q4.

That would only be 5.7k towards spillover. Probably the truth lies somewhere between.

[Spectator]

Spec

So yes ... 1600 for Q1/2 means 3200 for full year right?Q,

You need to look at page 13 of the PDF.

Fiscal Year and/or Quarters -- Total EB-5 Visas Issued
---- FY11 Q1&Q2 ---------------- 2,129*

*Preliminary Estimate of FY11 Q1&Q2 Visas Issued

That is the total number of visas issued, as mentioned by neospeed.

I believe the 1,601 mentioned on page 9 is the number of I-526 filing receipts.

The USCIS Dashboard http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=18&office=2&charttype=1 shows that receipts of I-526 are on the increase and the pending backlog is more than sufficient for a repeat number of visas to be issued in the second half of the year.

Perhaps more importantly, there appears to be the political will to speed up the processing time for EB5. With that in mind, a return to the level seen in FY2009 of 4.2k does not seem inconceivable.

[qesehmk]

This whole thing is quite confusing. I don't claim to know it well. But from what I understand, EB5 visa issued is not necessarily same as the DoS EB5 green card visa number. Pls check the EB5 process at
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=8bf89ea1c35be210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=8bf89ea1c35be210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

That EB5 visa is the visa issued at overseas posts. Now its possible that people with approved 526 from prior year are choosing to stamp passports this year and hence the visas issued in passport are at a higher level.

But if you think YoY increase .... its quite clear the increase is only 30%. So probably we should expect to see 2480*1.3 = 3224 numbers issued this year. That means 7K SOFAD. Makes sense?

p.s. - I tried to tie all these numbers with each other and the prior actual data for prior years .... but nothing matches quite well. Its a mystery why DoS publishes non-sensical data. But as always I like YoY data which is very safe to use and hence 130% increase when applied to last year approvals should be a good indicator of where things will stand this year. What do you think?




Q,

You need to look at page 13 of the PDF.

Fiscal Year and/or Quarters -- Total EB-5 Visas Issued
---- FY11 Q1&Q2 ---------------- 2,129*

*Preliminary Estimate of FY11 Q1&Q2 Visas Issued

That is the total number of visas issued, as mentioned by neospeed.

I believe the 1,601 mentioned on page 9 is the number of I-526 filing receipts.

The USCIS Dashboard http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=18&office=2&charttype=1 shows that receipts of I-526 are on the increase and the pending backlog is more than sufficient for a repeat number of visas to be issued in the second half of the year.

Perhaps more importantly, there appears to be the political will to speed up the processing time for EB5. With that in mind, a return to the level seen in FY2009 of 4.2k does not seem inconceivable.

[Spectator]

This whole thing is quite confusing. I don't claim to know it well. But from what I understand, EB5 visa issued is not necessarily same as the DoS EB5 green card visa number. Pls check the EB5 process at
http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=8bf89ea1c35be210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=8bf89ea1c35be210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

That EB5 visa is the visa issued at overseas posts. Now its possible that people with approved 526 from prior year are choosing to stamp passports this year and hence the visas issued in passport are at a higher level.

But if you think YoY increase .... its quite clear the increase is only 30%. So probably we should expect to see 2480*1.3 = 3224 numbers issued this year. That means 7K SOFAD. Makes sense?

p.s. - I tried to tie all these numbers with each other and the prior actual data for prior years .... but nothing matches quite well. Its a mystery why DoS publishes non-sensical data. But as always I like YoY data which is very safe to use and hence 130% increase when applied to last year approvals should be a good indicator of where things will stand this year. What do you think?

Q,

It is possible that people are delaying the Consular Interview, but that is probably still the case, so it evens out. The pending numbers for I-526 mean there are more than enough applications for high approvals this FY.

The figures of 1,885 for FY2010 and 4,218 for FY2009 visa issuance on page 13 match exactly to the figures published by DOS on the Visa Statistics page http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_1476.html. The earlier years don't match exactly, but close enough.

The 30% increase is on filings in HALF a year compared to a WHOLE year, although the dates given in the table on page 7 are actually only for a QUARTER of a year (10/01/2010 – 12/31/2010), so the underlying increase is far higher than 30%. e.g 110 in all FY2010 versus 146 in Q1-Q2 FY2011. The actual underlying increase is actually 165%, not 33% as presented in the table.

I am not saying the figures WILL double, only that there is no underlying reason why they cannot. Clearly the numbers will be far higher than last year, although it still isn't a large number in the grand scheme of things.

PS I can't work out where your 2,480 came from, but your calculation would become 2,480*2.65 = 6,596. I would see it more as 1,855*2.65 = 4,916 but I think that is too high. Double the Q1-Q2 FY visa issuance of 2,129 would give an increase of 130% on the FY2010 figure of 1,885.

[veni001]

Q,

It is possible that people are delaying the Consular Interview, but that is probably still the case, so it evens out. The pending numbers for I-526 mean there are more than enough applications for high approvals this FY.

The figures of 1,885 for FY2010 and 4,218 for FY2009 visa issuance on page 13 match exactly to the figures published by DOS on the Visa Statistics page http://travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_1476.html. The earlier years don't match exactly, but close enough.

The 30% increase is on filings in HALF a year compared to a WHOLE year, although the dates given in the table on page 7 are actually only for a QUARTER of a year (10/01/2010 – 12/31/2010), so the underlying increase is far higher than 30%. e.g 110 in all FY2010 versus 146 in Q1-Q2 FY2011. The actual underlying increase is actually 165%, not 33% as presented in the table.

I am not saying the figures WILL double, only that there is no underlying reason why they cannot. Clearly the numbers will be far higher than last year, although it still isn't a large number in the grand scheme of things.

PS I can't work out where your 2,480 came from, but your calculation would become 2,480*2.65 = 6,596. I would see it more as 1,855*2.65 = 4,916 but I think that is too high. Double the Q1-Q2 FY visa issuance of 2,129 would give an increase of 130% on the FY2010 figure of 1,885.

Spec,
Yes, it is possible that USCIS may be able to process more EB5 application in Q3-Q4, with their new efforts.
But couple of points to note , 1) based on Q1&Q2 completions, EB5 approval rate is about 81% 2) EB5 approvals are taking about 5.5 months (as of Q2).

[veni001]

Under the U.S. Department of State policy, the visa numbers are allocated quaterly in compliance with certain standards such that the visa numbers are managed and distributed in a regulated and orderly matter considering the trend of demands for the visa numbers by the USCIS and Visa Posts outside of the United States. The last quarter allocation has historally shown unpredictable fluctuation depending on the pace of demand by the USCIS and Visa Posts since the annual visa quota numbers will have to be used before September 30, 2011 not to waste the annual visa quota numbers. One famous record with devastating and embarassing consequences was so-called FY 2007 Visa Bulletin fiasco. The State Department determined that there had been a large number of EB visa numbers yet to be consumed during the 4th quarter of FY 2007 that starts on July 2007 and in order not to waste any visa numbers, it released July 2007 Visa Bulletin with all the EB-2 and EB-3 visa numbers "current." As usual, the July 2007 Visa Bulletin was released in June 2007. It led to the complete exhaustion of the FY 2007 EB visa numbers in a matter of days in July 2007, overpowering the capacity of the USCIS to manage the avalanche of I-485 applications and ancillary applications of EAD and Advance Parole. Worse yet, the State Department apparently belatedly miscalculated the USCIS demand, which was detected by the USCIS fax to the Visa Bureau, the State Department released amended July 2007 Visa Bulletin with cut-off dates on July 1, 2007. Facing legality of such action, followed by class action lawsuits, apparently the USCIS and the State Department reached an unusual agreement that the earlier release of Visa Bulletin will not allow the USCIS and visa posts to approve immigrant visas or approve I-485 unless the priority date was earlier than July 2007, but the USCIS will accept new I-485 applications regardless of the priority date, no matter whether there were any remaining visa numbers for FY 2007 or not. This literally opened a flood gate! This decision took time with very complicated legal and administration process within the government. This created another problem. The USCIS released final regulation changing immigration filing fees effective end of July 2007. Consequently, the action of the Visa Bureau tremendously disrupted the USCIS financial plan involving the fee structure changes and fee increases for its funding. Literally there was a mess. That is why it was called a "FIASCO."

The agencies have learned a good lesson on importance of close coordination between the State Deparment and the USCIS and this reproter guarantees that "It Ain't Going to Repeat" in August Visa Bulletin. The eyes of the Indians and Chinese are focused on the upcoming Visa Bulletin because they know that depending on the demand data and the total of the reserve for the rest of the fiscal year 2011, it can go either way - continuing EB visa number progression for Indians and Chinese or halt or even backward movement of the cut-off dates for Indians and Chinese in the worst case. No one knows the answer at this time, even though there is a speculation that it may remain stand-still in August. But we will find it out soon. Until that time, please enjoy the nation's important Independence Day, the Fourth of July. There will be lots of fireworks and concerts around. Lots of Red/Blue/White color decorations, not to mention American flags all over. Let's celebrate!

Courtesy: Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html)(07/02/11)

[Spectator]

Spec,
Yes, it is possible that USCIS may be able to process more EB5 application in Q3-Q4, with their new efforts.
But couple of points to note , 1) based on Q1&Q2 completions, EB5 approval rate is about 81% 2) EB5 approvals are taking about 5.5 months (as of Q2).
Veni,

That is why I said in my original post that "Probably the truth lies somewhere between."

Using the 81% figure and the 2,064 pending plus 429 awaiting Customer action as of April (which have time to be approved this FY) gives 2,022 approvals in Q3-Q4 FY2011.

Adding that to the 2,129 visas issued in Q1-Q2 FY2011 gives 4,151 approvals for the year, or more than double the number approved in FY2010.

On that basis, spare visas from EB5 would be about 5.8k, compared to the 8.8k received in FY2010.

That is just an example, since it is impossible to know what is going to happen. Perhaps 500 either way.

[veni001]

Veni,

That is why I said in my original post that "Probably the truth lies somewhere between."

Using the 81% figure and the 2,064 pending as of April (which have time to be approved this FY) gives 1,674 approvals in Q3-Q4 FY2011.

Adding that to the 2,129 visas issued in Q1-Q2 FY2011 gives 3,803 approvals for the year, or about double the number approved in FY2010.

On that basis, spare visas from EB5 would be about 6.1k, compared to the 8.8k received in FY2010.

That is just an example, since it is impossible to know what is going to happen.

Spec,
I agree, definitely we are not going to get similar spillover form EB5 this year, and most likely not in the coming year(s) also.

[veni001]

Is available online.

On June 29, 2011, Ombudsman January Contreras submitted the 2011 Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman’s Annual Report (http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-annual-report-2011.pdf) to Congress

[Spectator]

Is available online.

On June 29, 2011, Ombudsman January Contreras submitted the 2011 Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman’s Annual Report (http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-annual-report-2011.pdf) to CongressVeni,

Thanks for the heads up. I'll read it when I have the time.

[qesehmk]

Spec Veni

I think now I have better understanding of EB5 thanks to our discussion. First lets establish EB5 process. So here it goes.

It seems I526 is equivalent to I140. And then an investor can either adjust status using 485 or CP (where EB5 visa is physically stamped). I829 just an additional step of confirming the conditional residence granted under EB5 program. So I829 is consequential since the visa numbers were already allocated under I526.

So forget everything else and simply focus on 526 completions. Following table shows rolling 12 months receipts & completions respectively. Receipts as you can see are increasing very fast (some combination of economic conditions and growing frustration in other categories). BUT .... and this is a big BUT ... the USCIS processing is not keeping pace and so I am 99% confident this year the SOFAD from EB5 will be very very similar to last year. Take a look at rolling 12 months data below.


Rolling 12 months numbers for EB5
Month Receipts Completions
Feb10 1241 1117
Mar10 1345 1304
Apr10 1404 1281
May10 1425 1231
Jun10 1509 1317
Jul10 1524 1335
Aug10 1565 1307
Sep10 1660 1315
Oct10 1733 1272
Nov10 1842 1204
Dec10 2016 1179
Jan11 2076 974
Feb11 2205 952
Mar11 2435 1045
Apr11 2611 1042

So lets calculate now. Full year approvals of 526 will be probably between 1000-1300 (even if USCIS accelerates). YTD they are 407 per the aila report (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35288) page 10. So full year 1000-1300 matches with that. Now applying a factor of 2.65 for dependents that's 2.7-3.5K visas. It means the SOFAD from EB5 will be just like last year between 8-7K.

Critique and tear this logic.

[veni001]

Spec Veni

I think now I have better understanding of EB5 thanks to our discussion. First lets establish EB5 process. So here it goes.

It seems I526 is equivalent to I140. And then an investor can either adjust status using 485 or CP (where EB5 visa is physically stamped). I829 just an additional step of confirming the conditional residence granted under EB5 program. So I829 is consequential since the visa numbers were already allocated under I526.

So forget everything else and simply focus on 526 completions. Following table shows rolling 12 months receipts & completions respectively. Receipts as you can see are increasing very fast (some combination of economic conditions and growing frustration in other categories). BUT .... and this is a big BUT ... the USCIS processing is not keeping pace and so I am 99% confident this year the SOFAD from EB5 will be very very similar to last year. Take a look at rolling 12 months data below.

..............
..............
..............

So lets calculate now. Full year approvals of 526 will be probably between 1000-1300 (even if USCIS accelerates). YTD they are 407 per the aila report (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35288) page 10. So full year 1000-1300 matches with that. Now applying a factor of 2.65 for dependents that's 2.7-3.5K visas. It means the SOFAD from EB5 will be just like last year between 8-7K.

Critique and tear this logic.

Q,
Let me present the worst case scenario...

Based on USCIS presentation(AILA report (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35288)) as of Q2 there are 407 approval (~81%) and 96 denials(~19%) and from USCIS dash board report (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=18&office=2&charttype=1) there are 2,257 pending I-526 applications(as of March 2011).

Now let's assume USCIS will process all pending I-526 as of Q2 (in reality some new applications will be processed and some old still remain pending) and apply Q1&Q2 approval percentages to that number.

Which means an additional 1,828 approvals and brings total I-526 approvals for FY2011 to 2,235.

Not sure why you are using 2.65 multiplication factor but i will stick to our EB5-485 ratio calculation (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics))(2.90) from FACTS AND DATA section.

This brings total EB5 usage for FY 2011 to 6,482 and yield only 3,458 to EB1-->EB2IC.

[qesehmk]

I am ok with whatever teh factor is 2.65 or 2.9

But I think I am in diagreement over USCIS processing the pending inventory. The reason being ... just look at the rolling 12 months data. The inventory has nt built in a day.. It's result of systemic delays driven most likely by the eligibility of the applications rather than ability of USCIS to process them.



Q,
Let me present the worst case scenario...

Based on USCIS presentation(AILA report (http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35288)) as of Q2 there are 407 approval (~81%) and 96 denials(~19%) and from USCIS dash board report (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=18&office=2&charttype=1) there are 2,257 pending I-526 applications(as of March 2011).

Now let's assume USCIS will process all pending I-526 as of Q2 (in reality some new applications will be processed and some old still remain pending) and apply Q1&Q2 approval percentages to that number.

Which means an additional 1,828 approvals and brings total I-526 approvals for FY2011 to 2,235.

Not sure why you are using 2.65 multiplication factor but i will stick to our EB5-485 ratio calculation (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics))(2.90) from FACTS AND DATA section.

This brings total EB5 usage for FY 2011 to 6,482 and yield only 3,458 to EB1-->EB2IC.

[veni001]

I am ok with whatever teh factor is 2.65 or 2.9

But I think I am in diagreement over USCIS processing the pending inventory. The reason being ... just look at the rolling 12 months data. The inventory has nt built in a day.. It's result of systemic delays driven most likely by the eligibility of the applications rather than ability of USCIS to process them.

Q,
I wouldn't argue on that. Unless otherwise USCIS is convinced that the legibility of the investor & the investment, they will not approve I-526.
I was just presenting the worst case scenario based on the pending applications. In either case i would at least count EB5 usage for FY2011 at FY2009 level.

[Spectator]

..... so I am 99% confident this year the SOFAD from EB5 will be very very similar to last year.

Unless there are no further visas issued in Q3 & Q4, that is impossible, based on the figures presented in the pdf.

Page 13 shows that 2,129 visas have already been issued in Q1 & Q2 FY2011.

The allocation this year is 9,940, so SOFAD at the end of Q2 stands at 7,811.

Last year, SOFAD from EB5 was 10,697 - 1,885 = 8,812, so it is already 1K less after only 6 months.

Ultimately, we are only talking about 1-3k, so it is not worth disagreeing over.

[Spectator]

Is available online.

On June 29, 2011, Ombudsman January Contreras submitted the 2011 Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman’s Annual Report (http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/cisomb-annual-report-2011.pdf) to Congress
I had a skim through it and it is very disappointing as far as EB is concerned.

About the only good note, is that he continues to bring up the extended approval times for EADs and the wish to reinstate interim EADs issued at Local Offices.

[qesehmk]

We already discussed. Those it seems are visa stampings rather than 2011 visa allocation.

Otherwise to equate 407 cases to 2129 means every family get 5 numbers. Thats impossible especially considering most of the EB5s are chinese!! Just kidding!

But 5 is a terrible factor and can only mean that those 2129 can't be correlated with 407 approvals of I-526 this year.


Page 13 shows that 2,129 visas have already been issued in Q1 & Q2 FY2011.

[veni001]

I had a skim through it and it is very disappointing as far as EB is concerned.

About the only good note, is that he continues to bring up the extended approval times for EADs and the wish to reinstate interim EADs issued at Local Offices.

Spec,
Agree, not much other than the improved visibility they have been providing since last couple of years.

[Spectator]

We already discussed. Those it seems are visa stampings rather than 2011 visa allocation.

Otherwise to equate 407 cases to 2129 means every family get 5 numbers. Thats impossible especially considering most of the EB5s are chinese!! Just kidding!

But 5 is a terrible factor and can only mean that those 2129 can't be correlated with 407 approvals of I-526 this year.Q,

Let's just say that the approval of the I-526 is only the first step towards the final issuance of a visa, so it is an erroneous assumption to equate 407 approvals to 2,129 visas issued.

I would say it is unlikely that many, if any, visas have yet been issued as a result of those 407 approvals.

I will leave it at that.

[veni001]

We already discussed. Those it seems are visa stampings rather than 2011 visa allocation.

Otherwise to equate 407 cases to 2129 means every family get 5 numbers. Thats impossible especially considering most of the EB5s are chinese!! Just kidding!

But 5 is a terrible factor and can only mean that those 2129 can't be correlated with 407 approvals of I-526 this year.

Q,
First,USCIS presentation (aila document) shows EB5 usage as preliminary estimate!
Second, USCIS dash board shows 582 completion(I-526) from Q1&Q2, if we take Sept 2010 completions(100) towards 2011-485 usage(considering delay related to IV appointments at consular posts) then EB5 ratio will be 3.85 ( remember 2006 EB5 usage ratio is 3.16)

So the conclusion is, USCIS used ballpark numbers in it's presentation!

[qesehmk]

Sorry I didnt understand ... but lets agree to disagree.


Q,

Let's just say that the approval of the I-526 is only the first step towards the final issuance of a visa, so it is an erroneous assumption to equate 407 approvals to 2,129 visas issued.

I would say it is unlikely that many, if any, visas have yet been issued as a result of those 407 approvals.

I will leave it at that.


Q,
First,USCIS presentation (aila document) shows EB5 usage as preliminary estimate!
Second, USCIS dash board shows 582 completion(I-526) from Q1&Q2, if we take Sept 2010 completions(100) towards 2011-485 usage(considering delay related to IV appointments at consular posts) then EB5 ratio will be 3.85 ( remember 2006 EB5 usage ratio is 3.16)

So the conclusion is, USCIS used ballpark numbers in it's presentation!

I didn't understand. But I agree that the numbers in presentation could be ballpark. Anyway ... that's enough discussion. I think we are quite convinced that the dashboard approvals don;t time well with the EB5 usage in the aila document. The question is why?

[neospeed]

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/showthread.php?t=14625&p=60691#post60691


lets see what ron comes up with :)

[nishant2200]

Ron G crunching numbers, the earlier post by OH law firm etc. One thing is for sure, this bulletin has got everyone on edge n thinking caps on. There is huge anticipation building up. I hope it's not too disappointing!

A few back, there was a post about needing to make it into 2008 upcoming bulletin itself if need to give visa via CP this FY. What are the merits in that argument?

[veni001]

Ron G crunching numbers, the earlier post by OH law firm etc. One thing is for sure, this bulletin has got everyone on edge n thinking caps on. There is huge anticipation building up. I hope it's not too disappointing!

A few back, there was a post about needing to make it into 2008 upcoming bulletin itself if need to give visa via CP this FY. What are the merits in that argument?

nishant2200,
Let's see what he is going to come-up with, if any, before August Visa Bulletin is out.
I am not expecting any one coming up with better calculations/predictions than what we have done so far here!

[qesehmk]

Amen to that! Its flattering nonetheless to see Ron engaging in calcultions based predictions!
nishant2200,
Let's see what he is going to come-up with, if any, before August Visa Bulletin is out.
I am not expecting any one coming up with better calculations/predictions than what we have done so far here!

[qblogfan]

agree, I don't think Ron G can get better calculations than this forum. The analysis and calculations here are the best I have ever seen. Anyway, happy July 4th holiday!


nishant2200,
Let's see what he is going to come-up with, if any, before August Visa Bulletin is out.
I am not expecting any one coming up with better calculations/predictions than what we have done so far here!

[nishant2200]

trying to read bits of english mixed in the chinese at mitbbs. never thought it would come to this :)

[veni001]

trying to read bits of english mixed in the chinese at mitbbs. never thought it would come to this :)

nishant2200,
No need to try that hard, you are reading same information(from this forum) in chinese (on mitbbs) :)

[qblogfan]

There is no news on MITBBS. Only one guy said he got internal information from Mr.CO. Mr. CO said the PD will move forward for several months.

I can't validate the accuracy of this news, so please make your own judgement call. I am not sure whether it's a scam or not, but previously this guy provided some good info.

Here is the link of his email with Mr.CO:

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31344329.html


nishant2200,
No need to try that hard, you are reading same information(from this forum) in chinese (on mitbbs) :)

[neospeed]

There is no news on MITBBS. Only one guy said he got internal information from Mr.CO. Mr. CO said the PD will move forward for several months.

I can't validate the accuracy of this news, so please make your own judgement call. I am not sure whether it's a scam or not, but previously this guy provided some good info.

Here is the link of his email with Mr.CO:

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31344329.html

Great. Did we get any info from our souce?

[qesehmk]

I checked this link. And somehow I couldn't see anything except what looked like a fake message of one liner in very odd english.

We encourage listing other credible sources from other websites. But listing fake sources would be a waste of this forum's readers' time.

I am keeping your original posting as is for now. Let others read it too. Lets see if anybody else saw any useful information out of that posting.


There is no news on MITBBS. Only one guy said he got internal information from Mr.CO. Mr. CO said the PD will move forward for several months.

I can't validate the accuracy of this news, so please make your own judgement call. I am not sure whether it's a scam or not, but previously this guy provided some good info.

Here is the link of his email with Mr.CO:

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31344329.html

[ssvp22]

We encourage listing other credible sources from other websites. But listing fake sources would be a waste of this forum's readers' time.
Agree with this 100%. Sometimes, for reality check, i visit trackitt. OMG. All i see is people squabbling over pettiest of issues. What a waste of time. We really need to maintain sanity of this forum.

[qblogfan]

No problem. I provided this link because this guy has been on MITBBS forum for several years and provided some reliable information in the past. Please remove it if you think it's inappropriate.


I checked this link. And somehow I couldn't see anything except what looked like a fake message of one liner in very odd english.

We encourage listing other credible sources from other websites. But listing fake sources would be a waste of this forum's readers' time.

I am keeping your original posting as is for now. Let others read it too. Lets see if anybody else saw any useful information out of that posting.

[leo07]

How did you decode? everything is in Chinese on that link?

you did what you thought is right. Just put a disclaimer that you are not too sure about the source.


No problem. I provided this link because this guy has been on MITBBS forum for several years and provided some reliable information in the past. Please remove it if you think it's inappropriate.

[qesehmk]

Lets wait and hear from a few others. I dont' want to be a dictator around here.


No problem. I provided this link because this guy has been on MITBBS forum for several years and provided some reliable information in the past. Please remove it if you think it's inappropriate.


You can translate the page using google toolbar.

How did you decode? everything is in Chinese on that link?

you did what you thought is right. Just put a disclaimer that you are not too sure about the source.

[qblogfan]

Yes, sir. I did have a note on my post and disclaimed that I am not 100% sure about the accuracy. Of course I would trust Q's source better.

I didn't need to use Google Toolbar because I am a Chinese guy. :) I don't want to mislead people here. I just want to share information to my Indian friends here. Best wishes to all.


How did you decode? everything is in Chinese on that link?

you did what you thought is right. Just put a disclaimer that you are not too sure about the source.

[qblogfan]

No problem, sir. I hope you guys will not be confused by my post. My only intention was to pass some information from MITBBS because one guy was searching there for information.

Have a great day.


Lets wait and hear from a few others. I dont' want to be a dictator around here.




You can translate the page using google toolbar.

[soggadu]

In my opinion we are thinking too much about it.... who ever put in the information from other sources should just mention their reliability in their own opinion...thats all.. case khatam dukhan bandh... kaiko itna locha... live and let live friends... Q, you rock bud... i like your transparency on this forum...

[Stemcell]

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31344329.html

On a lighter vein.
I am not Chinese and am soley relying on Google translation.

All the messages say from 'Unknown space station'.
I would be happy if the dates move forward as long as the messages are not coming from space ;)

[leo07]

I think they ("Unknown space station") might have better hang of these numbers than CIS+DOS put together :)

Of course, after Q,V,Spec,TeddyK :0

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31344329.html

On a lighter vein.
I am not Chinese and am soley relying on Google translation.

All the messages say from 'Unknown space station'.
I would be happy if the dates move forward as long as the messages are not coming from space ;)

[bieber]

qblogfan,

good to know that you are from China

[qesehmk]

good to know he is from earth!!

qblogfan i like you my friend. Sorry if you are offended.


qblogfan,

good to know that you are from China

[iamdeb]

Less than 3 days left so I guess there going to be some tidbits from people having sources inside the CIS.
Last month I remember some insider correctly predicted about the massive movement.

[ssvp22]

How did you decode? everything is in Chinese on that link?
Following jpeg is attached to the first post (http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31344329.html) - http://www.mitbbs.com/article2/EB23/31344329_225.jpg

[bieber]

good to know he is from earth!!

qblogfan i like you my friend. Sorry if you are offended.

lol

i'm thinking about the 8 letter member you hinted few days back

[qblogfan]

Thank you very much.

I am glad to visit this forum. We share the same goal.


qblogfan,

good to know that you are from China

[qblogfan]

Thank you for your hard work.

I like this forum very much. I appreciate all the information from you and your source.

I am not offended at all. I don't want to cause troubles to this forum. I want to keep this forum clean.


good to know he is from earth!!

qblogfan i like you my friend. Sorry if you are offended.

[qesehmk]

Those who were offline over teh weekend ...we had a decent and in my opinion consequential discussion on EB5 consumption this year. We didn't come to much conclusion. But good info nonetheless.

Check a couple of pages back.

[Stemcell]

Q,

When will you be posting 'BREAKING NEWS' ?
(Biting nails) Have you heard from your source yet ?

[soggadu]

Q,

When will you be posting 'BREAKING NEWS' ?
(Biting nails) Have you heard from your source yet ?

ground breaking one's or heart breaking one's? lol... i guess he will post it as soon as he has the info... give the guy a break friends... on the other hand, i am also anxious but cant do mich than wait it out...

[ChampU]

Sorry folks, if i am digressing from the discussion about the August Visa bulletin. I am posting this question on my friend's behalf..
She has an approved I-140 (EB2-I) with a PD in Nov. 2007. Her 7th year H1 extension is coming up in September 2011. She is into IT consulting. Her current assignment is up for extension on July 15th. She thinks that she would get an extension but it might not be for more than 3 months (1-2 months is what she believes would happen).
I told her that based on what I have read on this forum, her PD might be current as early as next month. Her questions were:

1. What would happen if she is not on a project and her PD is current? Is a client letter/LCA/work order required while filing for I-485?
2. Even if she is able to file for I-485, she will not be getting an EAD before her H1 expires (September). Can she continue to work, based on the pending AOS application, without the EAD?
4. Given the kind of scrutiny that H1B applications are receiving these days, would it be a wise idea for her to apply for the extension based on her current work order or the one with an 2 month extension (09/15, the client refuses to give the client letter.) She has been working on the same project for more than 4 years.

I have little idea about IT consulting. I suggested that she look for a new project and file documents (H1 and I-485) based on the new assignment.


Thanks
Champ

[bieber]

champU

I heard, taking a letter from client saying they cannot issue a letter itself is enough sometimes for h1 renewal

[ChampU]

champU

I heard, taking a letter from client saying they cannot issue a letter itself is enough sometimes for h1 renewal

Thanks Bieber! Is Client Letter/LCA/Work order needed while I-485? Can someone who filed I-485 please chime in?

Champ

[ssvp22]

Thanks Bieber! Is Client Letter/LCA/Work order needed while I-485? Can someone who filed I-485 please chime in?

Champ
I doubt it is needed. From the list of documents requested by my attorney, client letter is not listed.

[justintime]

485 Approved - TSC Sep 2006 PD.
Card sent to old address (even after filing AR 11).
Need to follow up but that's for another forum.
Thank you all for your predictions.
I wish you all get greened this year. Good luck!

[H1GC140]

Q, Vanni, Teddy and others

Thank you for this wonderful blog. This blog is hope for many people likes me, waiting to file I-485. I am silent member of this community from last 2 months and trying to understand how the USCIS system works.

This is my first post and here is the question for you guys, (please forgive me if this question doesn’t belong here) :

Do we have to update our address (AR-11) whenever we moved? I am using one of my friend’s permanent home address as my mailing address. I always get mails from USCIS on time from my friend. I moved to new apartment before 10 days(just 2 miles away from my friend's home). Should I have to report USCIS about my new address or not? I do not want to report my new address because I will leave this place next year. But if it is required by law then I don't have choice.

Please advise urgently because for me today is last day(10th day) to file AR-11.


Those who were offline over teh weekend ...we had a decent and in my opinion consequential discussion on EB5 consumption this year. We didn't come to much conclusion. But good info nonetheless.

Check a couple of pages back.

[qesehmk]

Best wishes and thanks for letting us know. We share your joy!


485 Approved - TSC Sep 2006 PD.
Card sent to old address (even after filing AR 11).
Need to follow up but that's for another forum.
Thank you all for your predictions.
I wish you all get greened this year. Good luck!


H1G, welcome. I have moved 4-5 times in last 6-7 years and have always kept USCIS informed. Although its a minor thing ... why take a wrong step howsoever minor. p.s. - You can do it online in case you didn't know.


Q, Vanni, Teddy and others

Thank you for this wonderful blog. This blog is hope for many people likes me, waiting to file I-485. I am silent member of this community from last 2 months and trying to understand how the USCIS system works.

This is my first post and here is the question for you guys, (please forgive me if this question doesn’t belong here) :

Do we have to update our address (AR-11) whenever we moved? I am using one of my friend’s permanent home address as my mailing address. I always get mails from USCIS on time from my friend. I moved to new apartment before 10 days(just 2 miles away from my friend's home). Should I have to report USCIS about my new address or not? I do not want to report my new address because I will leave this place next year. But if it is required by law then I don't have choice.

Please advise urgently because for me today is last day(10th day) to file AR-11.

[leo07]

Please don't neglect this. It takes < 5 min to update. Don't wait to hear horror stories :)

It is definitely not a minor issue if they ever had find out through various documents that you submit them.

Q, Vanni, Teddy and others

Thank you for this wonderful blog. This blog is hope for many people likes me, waiting to file I-485. I am silent member of this community from last 2 months and trying to understand how the USCIS system works.

This is my first post and here is the question for you guys, (please forgive me if this question doesn’t belong here) :

Do we have to update our address (AR-11) whenever we moved? I am using one of my friend’s permanent home address as my mailing address. I always get mails from USCIS on time from my friend. I moved to new apartment before 10 days(just 2 miles away from my friend's home). Should I have to report USCIS about my new address or not? I do not want to report my new address because I will leave this place next year. But if it is required by law then I don't have choice.

Please advise urgently because for me today is last day(10th day) to file AR-11.

[svbmanian]

dont want to scare you, but it is a misdemeanor crime if the address change is not reported with in 10days. Better update your latest move by filing the AR-11 form online.

[leo07]

I was told it's more than a misdemeanor crime by my para legal when I was negligent couple of years ago. So, I started being careful. Although "10 days" is not as rigid. When you are signing on a line, always be sure that your providing the correct information to the best of your knowledge. Just read about Casey Anthony's acquitta on murderl and guilty charge on willful misrepresentation :)

dont want to scare you, but it is a misdemeanor crime if the address change is not reported with in 10days. Better update your latest move by filing the AR-11 form online.

[TeddyKoochu]

Q, Vanni, Teddy and others

Thank you for this wonderful blog. This blog is hope for many people likes me, waiting to file I-485. I am silent member of this community from last 2 months and trying to understand how the USCIS system works.

This is my first post and here is the question for you guys, (please forgive me if this question doesn’t belong here) :

Do we have to update our address (AR-11) whenever we moved? I am using one of my friend’s permanent home address as my mailing address. I always get mails from USCIS on time from my friend. I moved to new apartment before 10 days(just 2 miles away from my friend's home). Should I have to report USCIS about my new address or not? I do not want to report my new address because I will leave this place next year. But if it is required by law then I don't have choice.

Please advise urgently because for me today is last day(10th day) to file AR-11.

As others have suggested I would say that it is very important to file for AR-11. I did it myself early this year. Also if you file online you have the option of applying this to any pending petition. Online is definitely the best option as you get an instant acknowledgement which you can print for your records. Also remember to change the address on your driving license or any government id to be consistent. Additionally I read on another forum today about an individual who was unlucky to receive a speeding ticket, he was residing in that state for 5 months but had not transferred his license he got into more trouble on account of that.

[nishant2200]

My friend, apart from doing AR-11 online, also called the USCIS customer service, and updated his address on his I-485 filed with them. He told me that they still had old address in their system, inspite of the online AR-11 filed few days back. Good he called. He got his green card on the correct new updated address a month later.

[natvyas]

Not a single approval has been reported on any of the sites today. I hope its not a bad omen.

[TeddyKoochu]

Not a single approval has been reported on any of the sites today. I hope its not a bad omen.

You are correct there seem to be no approvals at all. I hope its the long weekend. On Trackitt there is only 1 EB2 approval which can be attributed to cross chargeability. There should be a huge string of approvals this week only then we can we expect movement in the August bulletin.

[qesehmk]

Considering the long weekend .... thats not surprising. We will see much more approvals flooding in this week and next.


Not a single approval has been reported on any of the sites today. I hope its not a bad omen.

[natvyas]

Someone with a PD of Mar 07 getting his green card this week or next , indicate the visa availability?

[TeddyKoochu]

Someone with a PD of Mar 07 getting his green card this week or next , indicate the visa availability?

Approvals normally happen randomly within the range that is current. The volume of approvals with a very small number of unlucky members is a good trend.

[H1GC140]

Thank you friends for very quick response,

I just filed AR-11(address change). I didn't file AR-11 last time when I moved in 2007, so USCIS does not have my last apt address. I entered my friend's home address as my previous address to match USCIS record.

Que:
1) Should I have to file AR-11 for dependents?
2) I didn't use my previous apartment address as my previous address. Does it matter?

Thank you, Q, Teddy, leo07 and all members who answered my questions.


Best wishes and thanks for letting us know. We share your joy!




H1G, welcome. I have moved 4-5 times in last 6-7 years and have always kept USCIS informed. Although its a minor thing ... why take a wrong step howsoever minor. p.s. - You can do it online in case you didn't know.

[cantwaitlonger]

I was under the impression that if the remaining number of visas to be allocated is high and if the number of actual approvals coming through are less, this would cause significant date movement to prevent wastage.
I don't quite understand how a flurry of actual approvals would cause date movement. If this has been discussed before, please pardon me. Appreciate if anyone can point me to the relevant discussion. Thanks!

[natvyas]

I was under the impression that if the remaining number of visas to be allocated is high and if the number of actual approvals coming through are less, this would cause significant date movement to prevent wastage.
I don't quite understand how a flurry of actual approvals would cause date movement. If this has been discussed before, please pardon me. Appreciate if anyone can point me to the relevant discussion. Thanks!

Since the cases this time are pre-adjudicated they should approve them if they have visas. Not approving pre-adjudicated cases implies lack of visa availibility which in turn would imply no movement as the visas have been exhausted.

I think your understanding is correct for same year filings but in EB2I-C the cases are pre-adjudicated.

[qesehmk]

Generally this is true except during Q4 when SPILLOVER season starts!

I was under the impression that if the remaining number of visas to be allocated is high and if the number of actual approvals coming through are less, this would cause significant date movement to prevent wastage.
I don't quite understand how a flurry of actual approvals would cause date movement. If this has been discussed before, please pardon me. Appreciate if anyone can point me to the relevant discussion. Thanks!


When I do it I do it separately for my wife and myself. Since Kids were born here they are not an issue. But I think YES you must do it for all people and all live cases with USCIS 485 or 140 or EAD or whatever.


Thank you friends for very quick response,

I just filed AR-11(address change). I didn't file AR-11 last time when I moved in 2007, so USCIS does not have my last apt address. I entered my friend's home address as my previous address to match USCIS record.

Que:
1) Should I have to file AR-11 for dependents?
2) I didn't use my previous apartment address as my previous address. Does it matter?

Thank you, Q, Teddy, leo07 and all members who answered my questions.

[gchopeful123]

My priority date is Sep 24, 2007 (EB2). Do the experts here think I have any chance of being current in the Sep 2011 visa bulletin. Obviously, I had missed the July 2007 fiasco and waiting since ages to apply for I-485 and EAD/AP. Thanks.

[gchopeful123]

I am a n00b here and will therefore defer to the experts here and their analysis. Can someone volunteer to reply to Ron G's post here with some analysis so that there is some sharing of information. This will really help everyone to get insight on expected cut off dates for upcoming visa bulletins.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/some-thoughts-14625/

[bieber]

I am a n00b here and will therefore defer to the experts here and their analysis. Can someone volunteer to reply to Ron G's post here with some analysis so that there is some sharing of information. This will really help everyone to get insight on expected cut off dates for upcoming visa bulletins.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/some-thoughts-14625/
Do you know if Ron ever answered the latest PD in 2008 of the NVC notice that they received?

[qesehmk]

gchopeful .... checked the site you refer to. RonG is saying he is going to publish his findings. So there is nothing there to really comment on.

Besides we pretty much do a lot better discussions here itself. So unless there is something new that other sources point to.... not sure what you are requesting of us.


I am a n00b here and will therefore defer to the experts here and their analysis. Can someone volunteer to reply to Ron G's post here with some analysis so that there is some sharing of information. This will really help everyone to get insight on expected cut off dates for upcoming visa bulletins.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/some-thoughts-14625/

[Spectator]

I am a n00b here and will therefore defer to the experts here and their analysis. Can someone volunteer to reply to Ron G's post here with some analysis so that there is some sharing of information. This will really help everyone to get insight on expected cut off dates for upcoming visa bulletins.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/visa-quota-and-cutoff-date-issues-66/some-thoughts-14625/gchopeful,

I agree with Q.

Besides, a couple of people have raised legitimate questions in that thread which Ron can either not understand or wishes to ignore, since he didn't answer either satisfactorily (at all actually).

His previous attempts (when talking about EB2-I and EB3-I) have not only been hopeless, but factually incorrect.

I am sure we will discuss his findings, once they are published.

[sandeep11]

Can one of us point him to this wonderful discussion forum??

Ron somehow always abstained from any calculations or predictions pending any credible information about the numbers at the district offices. Ron indulging in some data analysis is surprising.

[nishant2200]

In the months of Jan - Feb '11 he was giving information like " the porting numbers were around 15000 , and all the available visa numbers would goto the eb3 to eb2(porting) guys" , which in turn he was inviting clients indirectly for consultation .

3 months later , he drew a diff picture . I think he is forgetting things or different persons in his law firm are answering for him .

I completely agree. There is a big banner on his website, asking if you want to upgrade. Even of late, murthy bulletins are always talking about how they can help in upgrade. So basically, all these lawyers are just looking at this new opportunity as their new cash cows.

[leo07]

If you see my older posts on this forum or IV, you'd see me defending RonG religiously. Not any more.

My current impressions about RonG is that he just gives information from the top of the stack. Nothing really serious there, beyond a show to attract clients. He does provide quick legal answers that would cost money in some other places. I will give him that much credit. But, please don't count on him for serious answers in the public forum. He picked up the numbers game, just because it's the talk-of-the-town this time of the year.



In the months of Jan - Feb '11 he was giving information like " the porting numbers were around 15000 , and all the available visa numbers would goto the eb3 to eb2(porting) guys" , which in turn he was inviting clients indirectly for consultation .

3 months later , he drew a diff picture . I think he is forgetting things or different persons in his law firm are answering for him .

[gchopeful123]

Wow...I had no intention of opening a can of worms. My suggestion was just to see if such a discussion with Ron G would help anyone as currently these are the only 2 forums which provide some good info. Anyways, lets drop this and I would request the experts here to continue their good work.

[gcwait2007]

I do not see any EB2India approvals in July 2011 so far in trackit. Last approval was on 06/27.

Any one has any update?

[nishant2200]

Data for 7/2011 to 6/2012 is now available at
http://www.flcdatacenter.com/OESWizardStart.aspx

they have changed some job codes. for eg, 15-1032 is now 15-1133

[Spectator]

Wow...I had no intention of opening a can of worms. My suggestion was just to see if such a discussion with Ron G would help anyone as currently these are the only 2 forums which provide some good info. Anyways, lets drop this and I would request the experts here to continue their good work.gchopeful,

No can of worms opened as far as I am concerned.

As with Leo, I like Ron and he performs a really good service to people on his site for free.

There is nothing wrong with trying to attract clients - that's his business after all.

Everybody says he is an excellent lawyer - I just think number crunching or analysis is not his forte.

[qesehmk]

pls don't worry about it. people here are nice and helpful. pls don't take any offense. as spec said we all too read Ron's letters. And i have also found them useful. Its just that his predictions is not something that i have been particularly fond of. pls continue to contribute. I am very confident none of these people wanted to discourage you from posting.

p.s. - If you haven't read. ... just read some of the analysis done in FACTS and DATA section primarily by Spec and Veni. Its fabulous. Teddy who runs his own thread on IV also contributes very significantly here. I hope you get to read their perspectives and find them useful.


Wow...I had no intention of opening a can of worms. My suggestion was just to see if such a discussion with Ron G would help anyone as currently these are the only 2 forums which provide some good info. Anyways, lets drop this and I would request the experts here to continue their good work.

[nishant2200]

I do not see any EB2India approvals in July 2011 so far in trackit. Last approval was on 06/27.

Any one has any update?

damn this has me on edge too. still nothing on trackitt.

[PDWait09]

This is a really good forum for good information. I hope EB2 Jan 09 would be current atleast by sept 2012. Any chances? Little worried about the EB3 porting to EB2.

[pch053]

damn this has me on edge too. still nothing on trackitt.

This has left me a bit surprised too! I wasn't expecting that many approvals on 7/1 as it was the start of the long weekend. But I was hoping that the floodgates of approval will open from today. Hopefully, we will see approvals coming in later this week; else, I will be a touch worried on any further progress of EB2-I/C PDs.

[nishant2200]

Maybe their IT system has some problem. So people are just not notified yet.

[ifaith]

Someone posted at my work that they r PWMB with Aug 2006 PD and they filed for 485 in June and they have got a finger printing notice for July 20, does this mean they will get greened within This fiscal year numbers

[qesehmk]

S/he may get lucky. But more than likely not. S/he is going to have to wait upto 6-9 months from the dates of filing 485.


Someone posted at my work that they r PWMB with Aug 2006 PD and they filed for 485 in June and they have got a finger printing notice for July 20, does this mean they will get greened within This fiscal year numbers

[pch053]

If they will be fingerprinted in July, then chances are that they will be greened within this years numbers as there will be still 2+ months after the fingerprint date. I was seeing in trackitt that clean cases have been approved within 3 months but I am totally relying on the posts in trackitt. However, most of the PWMB cases have their PDs after March'07, so they will probably need to wait for next year's quota.

Q,
Do you think even clear cases without any RFEs are taking 6 - 9 months? I know the current USCIS processing dates to be Oct/Dec'10 but we have seen 2011 approvals in trackitt.

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

The average time to get GC for ROW EB2 is 6 months. The median time is 4 months. So an Indian EB2 once becomes current should take similar time.

9 months may be is overkill. I agree with that. But its still unlikely that unless somebody filed in or before May, that they will get a number from 2011 quota. They will get it pretty soon. But it could come out of 2012 quota rather than 2011.


If they will be fingerprinted in July, then chances are that they will be greened within this years numbers as there will be still 2+ months after the fingerprint date. I was seeing in trackitt that clean cases have been approved within 3 months but I am totally relying on the posts in trackitt. However, most of the PWMB cases have their PDs after March'07, so they will probably need to wait for next year's quota.

Q,
Do you think even clear cases without any RFEs are taking 6 - 9 months? I know the current USCIS processing dates to be Oct/Dec'10 but we have seen 2011 approvals in trackitt.

Thanks!

[shivarajan]

Q,

As last time can you get 'ur sources' to give hints for this aug bull movement?
(You can obfuscate the info further if you think its not good to reveal in full ;)

[gchopeful123]

My priority date is Sep 24, 2007 (EB2). Do the experts here think I have any chance of being current in the Sep 2011 visa bulletin. Obviously, I had missed the July 2007 fiasco and waiting since ages to apply for I-485 and EAD/AP. Thanks.

[qesehmk]

Yes. Very good chance. If you spend some time reading the thread you will understand much more why. If u r short on time, just read the header of the thread.
My priority date is Sep 24, 2007 (EB2). Do the experts here think I have any chance of being current in the Sep 2011 visa bulletin. Obviously, I had missed the July 2007 fiasco and waiting since ages to apply for I-485 and EAD/AP. Thanks.

[gchopeful123]

Great stuff..thanks

[sidd21]

Hi Gurus,

We moved over the weekend to a new home and i changed mine and my wife's address and submitted AR-11 yesterday.Unfortunately,My AR-11 was submitted twice and in one of the submission info about my nationality was given wrong and the second submission had all correct information.

Will this cause any delay in my GC process or will this come up during Name check?.We are exepcting to be current in AUg 2011 bulletin( My wife is primay applicant). Please advise


Thank you friends for very quick response,

I just filed AR-11(address change). I didn't file AR-11 last time when I moved in 2007, so USCIS does not have my last apt address. I entered my friend's home address as my previous address to match USCIS record.

Que:
1) Should I have to file AR-11 for dependents?
2) I didn't use my previous apartment address as my previous address. Does it matter?

Thank you, Q, Teddy, leo07 and all members who answered my questions.

[TeddyKoochu]

Hi Gurus,

We moved over the weekend to a new home and i changed mine and my wife's address and submitted AR-11 yesterday.Unfortunately,My AR-11 was submitted twice and in one of the submission info about my nationality was given wrong and the second submission had all correct information.

Will this cause any delay in my GC process or will this come up during Name check?.We are exepcting to be current in AUg 2011 bulletin( My wife is primay applicant). Please advise

The purpose for AR-11 is just that the agencies are aware of your latest address. Nationality and other information are just other pieces of information that they may be using to uniquely identify your record, it is just like validation questions that maybe posed to you when you call any helpline or call center. Since you submitted twice you should be ok but you can call up just to be sure by providing the confirmation numbers. When you file for your 485 they will surely update this information with the latest one so nothing to worry.

[TeddyKoochu]

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. So really USCIS should not have any problems approving these cases unless the numbers have run out, the lack of approvals not only for EB2-I but for all other categories is very intriguing. We may not be able to attribute it just to the long weekend if there are no reports of approvals in the next 2 days if the online systems are functional. So for now lets wait and watch. I believe that realistically they may have another 8K (4K in the worst case and 12K in the best case) more to approve the preadjudicated cases. Now if really the numbers have run out then there will be no urgency for the agencies to push the dates sooner or build a buffer for next year. Let’s wait and watch the August bulletin (Movement expected till 01-JUN-2007) and the approval trend both are critical.

[sidd21]

Thank You!!

The purpose for AR-11 is just that the agencies are aware of your latest address. Nationality and other information are just other pieces of information that they may be using to uniquely identify your record, it is just like validation questions that maybe posed to you when you call any helpline or call center. Since you submitted twice you should be ok but you can call up just to be sure by providing the confirmation numbers. When you file for your 485 they will surely update this information with the latest one so nothing to worry.

[nishant2200]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2d438b6ee9af0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e7801c2c9be44210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Uscis website alerts says their efiling system is down, n message was last updated on the 5th. Hopefully this is reason why no online notifications.


---------

Edit: apologies, dont know why I thought today is 9th.

[neospeed]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2d438b6ee9af0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e7801c2c9be44210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Uscis website alerts says their efiling system is down, n message was last updated on the 5th. Hopefully this is reason why no online notifications.

Good link, thanks. That explains the delay in seeing the approvals.

[TeddyKoochu]

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=2d438b6ee9af0310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=e7801c2c9be44210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD

Uscis website alerts says their efiling system is down, n message was last updated on the 5th. Hopefully this is reason why no online notifications.

Nishant thanks for posting something is really intriguing. For this one if you refer to the details they are suggesting that the system maybe down from 9th to 10th which is future dates. Probably these are linked as you suggest and the online notification system may well be down.

[gc_vbin]

I don't think this could be the reason as it seems like this one is a scheduled downtime on the night of July 9th..

[ssvp22]

Can someone, who has filed 485, just call and check with them?

[natvyas]

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. So really USCIS should not have any problems approving these cases unless the numbers have run out, the lack of approvals not only for EB2-I but for all other categories is very intriguing. We may not be able to attribute it just to the long weekend if there are no reports of approvals in the next 2 days if the online systems are functional. So for now lets wait and watch. I believe that realistically they may have another 8K (4K in the worst case and 12K in the best case) more to approve the preadjudicated cases. Now if really the numbers have run out then there will be no urgency for the agencies to push the dates sooner or build a buffer for next year. Let’s wait and watch the August bulletin (Movement expected till 01-JUN-2007) and the approval trend both are critical.

Teddy

Per your calculations you expect the date to move to June 1st in Aug Bulletin and then move into 2008 in Sept Bulletin.

If building up the pipeline is indeed the strategy USCIS is going to adopt this year than dont you think that USCIS would move further than June 07 in Aug Bulletin and then into 2008 in Sept Bulletin.

Regards
Nat

[nishant2200]

Sorry guys, I put a edit note. I goofed up. Only ray of hope is that somehow these are linked.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

Per your calculations you expect the date to move to June 1st in Aug Bulletin and then move into 2008 in Sept Bulletin.

If building up the pipeline is indeed the strategy USCIS is going to adopt this year than dont you think that USCIS would move further than June 07 in Aug Bulletin and then into 2008 in Sept Bulletin.

Regards
Nat

I believe that probably 8K numbers are left and the dates would move till Jun in the Aug bulletin. When they want to build the pipeline is entirely upto them for now but definitely it would happen the timing is entirely the agencies discretion. For now the very critical thing is Aug approvals we must see approvals to confirm that numbers are indeed available.


Sorry guys, I put a edit note. I goofed up. Only ray of hope is that somehow these are linked.

Nishant don't worry every piece of information is greatly appreciated, like you I also hope that these are related.

[SChowdary]

I saw one person in another form called the service center and got the info that his case has been approved (current for july) but his online status is still initial review or something.

[veni001]

By my individual calculation 33K is the SOFAD that we could expect by a conservative calculation. Now out of that 25K has already been applied if we take the Jul bulletin into account. So really USCIS should not have any problems approving these cases unless the numbers have run out, the lack of approvals not only for EB2-I but for all other categories is very intriguing. We may not be able to attribute it just to the long weekend if there are no reports of approvals in the next 2 days if the online systems are functional. So for now lets wait and watch. I believe that realistically they may have another 8K (4K in the worst case and 12K in the best case) more to approve the preadjudicated cases. Now if really the numbers have run out then there will be no urgency for the agencies to push the dates sooner or build a buffer for next year. Let’s wait and watch the August bulletin (Movement expected till 01-JUN-2007) and the approval trend both are critical.

Teddy,
I assume your 25k calculation include EB2IC - FY2011 7% allocation (5.6k), am i correct?

[nishant2200]

I saw one person in another form called the service center and got the info that his case has been approved (current for july) but his online status is still initial review or something.

http://murthyforum.atinfopop.com/4/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=1024039761&f=1474093861&m=6161026022

technocrat10 writes:
I just called the service center and got an update that my application (including family members) is approved and a request has been sent for card printing. I should expect card withing 2 weeks. Let's hope this is correct (online status does not reflect that).

Btw - has anybody noticed an issue of late status updates online. My AP papers are approved and received yesterday. Online status still shows 'Initial Review'. That's strange.

PD: October 24, 2006
Service Center: TSC
Status: Initial Review
----------------
technocrat10 ko bahot bahot badhai, munh mei ghee sakkar. may he be the fore bearer of lots of such good news pouring in from people.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
I assume your 25k calculation include EB2IC - FY2011 7% allocation (5.6k), am i correct?

Veni, Yes you are right SOFAD includes the annual cap of 5.6K.


http://murthyforum.atinfopop.com/4/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=1024039761&f=1474093861&m=6161026022

technocrat10 writes:
I just called the service center and got an update that my application (including family members) is approved and a request has been sent for card printing. I should expect card withing 2 weeks. Let's hope this is correct (online status does not reflect that).

Btw - has anybody noticed an issue of late status updates online. My AP papers are approved and received yesterday. Online status still shows 'Initial Review'. That's strange.

PD: October 24, 2006
Service Center: TSC
Status: Initial Review
----------------
technocrat10 ko bahot bahot badhai, munh mei ghee sakkar. may he be the fore bearer of lots of such good news pouring in from people.

Nishant thanks for posting this may the start of good news. If there are more cases like that it may indicate that online system is not working consistently or is overwhelmed.

[meso129]

USCIS Public Engagement: Invitation to AC21 Stakeholder Engagement : This is certainly a good forum to address some questions on AC21 and Job portability.

We can try consolidating the questions and someone can attend and ask them.

http://content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd/USDHSCIS-a45d2

[leo07]

TeddyK,

Difference b/n June 1st and July 1st is ~1800, do you think it could be that tight this month?

Best!

Veni, Yes you are right SOFAD includes the annual cap of 5.6K.



Nishant thanks for posting this may the start of good news. If there are more cases like that it may indicate that online system is not working consistently or is overwhelmed.

[TeddyKoochu]

TeddyK,

Difference b/n June 1st and July 1st is ~1800, do you think it could be that tight this month?

Best!

Leo its only a ball park figure with ~ 6K numbers worth of movement if its 8K then its entirely possible. Good luck to you, I hope you and me get our chance to file for 485 this year. Iam pretty sure that the dates will hit June atleast by September, I feel 8K in total movement is definitely possible. For now we must see mass approvals to see movement in the Aug bulletin.

[leo07]

Just as FYI, my 3rd 140 is only 24 days old, so i still have a long way to go :) I cannot even make it a PP as CIS won't allow that application for Premium processing.

[victorian]

For now we must see mass approvals to see movement in the Aug bulletin.

I am sorry but I don't quite understand this. This is my current understanding of the process. DOS advanced the dates significantly in the July bulletin, presumably to gauge the pending demand. It starts getting applications starting July 1st. It then has 10 days or so, to estimate whether it has enough applications to exhaust the available visa numbers, and publish the next bulletin. How do the number of approvals figure into this?
Apologies if this has been answered before. Q said that the rules change for spill over season but I didn't quite get that.

[TeddyKoochu]

I am sorry but I don't quite understand this. This is my current understanding of the process. DOS advanced the dates significantly in the July bulletin, presumably to gauge the pending demand. It starts getting applications starting July 1st. It then has 10 days or so, to estimate whether it has enough applications to exhaust the available visa numbers, and publish the next bulletin. How do the number of approvals figure into this?
Apologies if this has been answered before. Q said that the rules change for spill over season but I didn't quite get that.

Your understanding is correct, consider the scenario if DOS advanced the date a point further than till which numbers are actually available, in that case USCIS will not be able to close the cases. 11K additional people became current by the Jul bulletin so there should have been a large number of approvals daily if demand and supply match if the supply (Numbers are less) we will see far fewer approvals that does not augur well.

[qesehmk]

I think Teddy answered it well. Just to add a little bit to that, basically current months' bulletin movement is based on current-2 month's visa allocations. So the movement for July was determined by the results of May rather than June.



I am sorry but I don't quite understand this. This is my current understanding of the process. DOS advanced the dates significantly in the July bulletin, presumably to gauge the pending demand. It starts getting applications starting July 1st. It then has 10 days or so, to estimate whether it has enough applications to exhaust the available visa numbers, and publish the next bulletin. How do the number of approvals figure into this?
Apologies if this has been answered before. Q said that the rules change for spill over season but I didn't quite get that.

[Gclongwait]

I am sorry but I don't quite understand this. This is my current understanding of the process. DOS advanced the dates significantly in the July bulletin, presumably to gauge the pending demand. It starts getting applications starting July 1st. It then has 10 days or so, to estimate whether it has enough applications to exhaust the available visa numbers, and publish the next bulletin. How do the number of approvals figure into this?
Apologies if this has been answered before. Q said that the rules change for spill over season but I didn't quite get that.

I agree with this. They already know the demand till 08 mar 07, other than PWMB + new dependents which should not be so much as to completely throw them completely off. If they didnt have enough visas they wouldnt have moved it this far.
I dont know much about online status but if it has to be manually updated then i would rather they spend their time in approving GC's rather than bothering with the online status.

[sandeep11]

More approvals means that they have not yet met the demand (including the spillovers for this year), in other words there are still numbers available to be allocated. In this case the numbers calculated by Venni, Spector, Q and their analysis is close to being true.

If the approvals stop abruptly, it means that they ran out of the numbers or are close to running out. In this case the next VB we wouldn't see much movement.

[victorian]

11K additional people became current by the Jul bulletin so there should have been a large number of approvals daily if demand and supply match if the supply (Numbers are less) we will see far fewer approvals that does not augur well.

I agree with that, but isn't the window of 10 days quite restrictive because there seem to a number of steps involved in approvals from a purely logistical point of view since the system is not completely electronic, which probably preclude immediate approvals of 11K applications, assuming that they all arrived at the USCIS office on July 1st, no?
Also, was this phenomenon of large number of approvals observed prior to the July bulletin?

Edit: Duh, checked the Facts and Data section, and there were relatively large number of approvals in May and June (well, it is not hard to beat 0) as compared to July, and this is definitely a big negative for August.
:Clucthing at Straws: - Long weekend means that both USCIS and Trackitt members not diligently updating their status :p

[sandeep11]

Sorry this was in reply to victorian's question above. But Teddy and Q have explained it much better.


More approvals means that they have not yet met the demand (including the spillovers for this year), in other words there are still numbers available to be allocated. In this case the numbers calculated by Venni, Spector, Q and their analysis is close to being true.

If the approvals stop abruptly, it means that they ran out of the numbers or are close to running out. In this case the next VB we wouldn't see much movement.

[Spectator]

I agree with that, but isn't the window of 10 days quite restrictive because there seem to a number of steps involved in approvals from a purely logistical point of view since the system is not completely electronic, which probably preclude immediate approvals of 11K applications, assuming that they all arrived at the USCIS office on July 1st, no?
Also, was this phenomenon of large number of approvals observed prior to the July bulletin?

Edit: Duh, checked the Facts and Data section, and there were relatively large number of approvals in May and June (well, it is not hard to beat 0) as compared to July, and this is definitely a big negative for August.
:Clucthing at Straws: - Long weekend means that both USCIS and Trackitt members not diligently updating their status :pvictorian,

No need to be so hard on yourself! :)

The other point is that the 11k additional people who became current because of the July bulletin refers to previous pre-adjudicated I-485s already in USCIS possession.

New applications as a result of becoming Current for the first time, as you rightly pointed out, do not have time to be approved this FY.

[neospeed]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

vb site just got updated now with this message:

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: August 2011 (Coming Soon)


hoping to get the VB out by this friday

[saky007]

victorian,

No need to be so hard on yourself! :)

The other point is that the 11k additional people who became current because of the July bulletin refers to previous pre-adjudicated I-485s already in USCIS possession.

New applications as a result of becoming Current for the first time, as you rightly pointed out, do not have time to be approved this FY.

This whole argument is based on the assumption that the cases current in July are pre-adjudicated. How do we know this for sure? May be USCIS only pre-adjudicated cases up to Oct 2006 and not the later ones. I might be totally wrong but just trying to think of alternate explanations that might explain what we are seeing.

[qesehmk]

USCIS had 4 years to preadjudicate. Secondly by their own admission they have preadj'd majority of cases.

I think lets not panic .... just wait and watch. Not having trackitt showup anything is not any cause of worry as yet.



This whole argument is based on the assumption that the cases current in July are pre-adjudicated. How do we know this for sure? May be USCIS only pre-adjudicated cases up to Oct 2006 and not the later ones. I might be totally wrong but just trying to think of alternate explanations that might explain what we are seeing.

[nishant2200]

http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html

vb site just got updated now with this message:

Upcoming month's visa bulletin: August 2011 (Coming Soon)


hoping to get the VB out by this friday

dude this is great news. seems like they are officially calling it open season now. And I think by this time they already know what bulletin they are going to release.

Two optional things may occur before friday.
- DOS demand data may or may not be updated
- Mumbai consulate website may or may not be updated tomorrow night

I think this bulletin is very critical and it will surely have notes, unlike last time.

I will always remember these times I shared with all of you guys, you all are almost like my online family.

[neospeed]

This whole argument is based on the assumption that the cases current in July are pre-adjudicated. How do we know this for sure? May be USCIS only pre-adjudicated cases up to Oct 2006 and not the later ones. I might be totally wrong but just trying to think of alternate explanations that might explain what we are seeing.

Mine is in June 2007, preadjudicated in Feb 2009. I know becos i attended interview at local uscis office. So i think pretty much all the cases applied during JUly 07 fiasco are preadjudicated

[nishant2200]

http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/714819325/current-in-july-got-fp-notice

this person got a second FP notice postmarked on July 1st, today in mail, no change in his online status This is after he got current. his PD is Jan 2007.

[Spectator]

This whole argument is based on the assumption that the cases current in July are pre-adjudicated. How do we know this for sure? May be USCIS only pre-adjudicated cases up to Oct 2006 and not the later ones. I might be totally wrong but just trying to think of alternate explanations that might explain what we are seeing.saky,

That is a very good question.

The simple answer would be that we can never know for sure.

As Q said, they have had a long time to adjudicate them.

More telling I think is that the USCIS numbers in the Inventory for EB2-IC have always matched the Demand Data figures very well.

Since EB2 has very low CP demand, if there were significant numbers not pre-adjudicated by USCIS, we might expect the DOS figures to be lower than the USCIS figures.

Since we don't see that, we can perhaps conclude that virtually all EB2-IC cases are indeed pre-adjudicated.

[pg_at_q]

USCIS had 4 years to preadjudicate. Secondly by their own admission they have preadj'd majority of cases.

I think lets not panic .... just wait and watch. Not having trackitt showup anything is not any cause of worry as yet.

Seeing this great thread, I feel obliged to throw in a theory as well :)

The reason why we don't see any approvals this week in July: I guess USCIS might be doing an internal audit to supply the required numbers to DoS for setting up the date for August visa bulletin. They may have put a freeze on adjudicating visa petitions until they get a complete picture of the remaining visa applications filed during July 2007 fiasco. Once they are able to audit, and send the required information to DoS, they'll lift the moratorium and start adjudicating again.

Just my 2 cents....

[veni001]

This whole argument is based on the assumption that the cases current in July are pre-adjudicated. How do we know this for sure? May be USCIS only pre-adjudicated cases up to Oct 2006 and not the later ones. I might be totally wrong but just trying to think of alternate explanations that might explain what we are seeing.


saky,

That is a very good question.

The simple answer would be that we can never know for sure.

As Q said, they have had a long time to adjudicate them.

More telling I think is that the USCIS numbers in the Inventory for EB2-IC have always matched the Demand Data figures very well.

Since EB2 has very low CP demand, if there were significant numbers not pre-adjudicated by USCIS, we might expect the DOS figures to be lower than the USCIS figures.

Since we don't see that, we can perhaps conclude that virtually all EB2-IC cases are indeed pre-adjudicated.

In addition, we can see the no. of receipts, pre-adjudicated and pending AOS (include all I-485) applications from USCIS dashboard!

[veni001]

Seeing this great thread, I feel obliged to throw in a theory as well :)

The reason why we don't see any approvals this week in July: I guess USCIS might be doing an internal audit to supply the required numbers to DoS for setting up the date for August visa bulletin. They may have put a freeze on adjudicating visa petitions until they get a complete picture of the remaining visa applications filed during July 2007 fiasco. Once they are able to audit, and send the required information to DoS, they'll lift the moratorium and start adjudicating again.

Just my 2 cents....

Based on the Facts and Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA) on hand we are not expecting very many PWMB until 08MAR2007. So I think DOS should have that info already.
As we have been observing, it will take few days before folks update their cases on trackitt or other sources.

[TeddyKoochu]

Based on the Facts and Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA) on hand we are not expecting very many PWMB until 08MAR2007. So I think DOS should have that info already.
As we have been observing, it will take few days before folks update their cases on trackitt or other sources.

Veni, agree with you on the PWMB, however by now considering that 11K folks are current we should have seen anywhere from 25-50 approvals on Trackitt we don't see any yet. Lets wait till Friday looks like the VB itself will come by then and answer all questions.

[ssvp22]

Seeing this great thread, I feel obliged to throw in a theory as well :)

The reason why we don't see any approvals this week in July: I guess USCIS might be doing an internal audit to supply the required numbers to DoS for setting up the date for August visa bulletin. They may have put a freeze on adjudicating visa petitions until they get a complete picture of the remaining visa applications filed during July 2007 fiasco. Once they are able to audit, and send the required information to DoS, they'll lift the moratorium and start adjudicating again.

Just my 2 cents....
In my opinion and experience with government kinda babus(US or India), they never decide so late. Whatever happens next VB has been decided since mid of last month.

[nishant2200]

atlperm1 user on trackitt , this guy just updated, he got I-485 approved on July 1st. PD was 7th Nov 2006

[sandeep11]

Hopefully we all get to hear the good news and it jumps over to 2008. Such a relief and peace of mind for so many people. Too Optimistic I know but atleast the thought make me happy.


dude this is great news. seems like they are officially calling it open season now. And I think by this time they already know what bulletin they are going to release.

Two optional things may occur before friday.
- DOS demand data may or may not be updated
- Mumbai consulate website may or may not be updated tomorrow night

I think this bulletin is very critical and it will surely have notes, unlike last time.

I will always remember these times I shared with all of you guys, you all are almost like my online family.

[TeddyKoochu]

atlperm1 user on trackitt , this guy just updated, he got I-485 approved on July 1st. PD was 7th Nov 2006

Finally this is good news, I hope more people update their cases. Hopefully more people will get notifications today evening / tomorrow morning and post.

[veni001]

Veni, agree with you on the PWMB, however by now considering that 11K folks are current we should have seen anywhere from 25-50 approvals on Trackitt we don't see any yet. Lets wait till Friday looks like the VB itself will come by then and answer all questions.

Teddy,
No of approvals reported on trackitt also depend on the volume of cases registered for that period (current Visa Bulletin).
I assume(did not check) the volumes on trackitt for different periods may not be proportional!

[sandeep11]

Do any of you have any information on how numbers were wasted last year??

[veni001]

Do any of you have any information on how numbers were wasted last year??

I don't think any EB VISA number(s) wastage in FY 2010!

[nishant2200]

Do any of you have any information on how numbers were wasted last year??

see
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/statistics/statistics_5240.html

in that, click on link:
Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2010

You will see no visas were wasted, in fact we got a few from FB.

[Spectator]

Do any of you have any information on how numbers were wasted last year??sandeep,,

I'm not entirely sure what your question means.

The limit for EB was 150,657 visas in FY2010.
DOS used 150,262 visas in EB in FY2010.

So, DOS failed to use 395 or 0.26% of the available visas.

EB3 fell short of the 43,088 allocation by 657 visas or 1.52%

The only group who failed to receive their proper allocation was EB3-ROW, as all other groups in EB3 exceeded the 7% limit.

You can also find the figures for last year here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?48-485-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI where they are split up into the various Countries / Groups.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
No of approvals reported on trackitt also depend on the volume of cases registered for that period (current Visa Bulletin).
I assume(did not check) the volumes on trackitt for different periods may not be proportional!

Country of Chargeability - India
Category - EB2
Status - Pending
PD Range Oct 2006 to Feb 2007 to correlate to 15th Oct 2006 to 08 - Mar 2007
The number of cases obtained is 373.
Now this is the 4th business day of the month we do know that mostly the approvals are loaded early in the month but lets give the benefit of doubt and consider it as only 2 business days and assuming 20% people don't update their profiles since its early days. This gives 2/20*80/100*373 = 29.84 ~ 30. I distinctly remember last year in July only 7K folks were current but by the end of the first day itself page 1 on Trackitt which is 50 cases was almost full. One interesting thing is besides EB2-I no other category is also posting approvals. Even in the last 2 months when far fewer people have been current we have seen more approvals in the earlier days. Now when I compare last years counts on Trackitt those current in Jul 2010 were from Feb 2005 to Sep 2005 this gives 734 cases this would mean that there has been a pretty steep fall in those who posted their cases. I also noted that some people just add their cases when they are approved. So I believe that we should reduce the expected approvals on Trackitt to 15 only (50%). Each posted approval will carry more value this year than last year because more people are current and lesser representation.

[Gclongwait]

Hey Guys,

I had a question. Have you heard of any denials for people who filed in July 2007 but who were not current after that? I am kind of new to this and haven't seen any. Assuming they are preadjudicated there must have been 10-15% denials right?

That was my previous question a few pages back. Does everybody who is preadjudicated mean they are approved? If USCIS cannot approve someone without the PD being current can they deny? I am just trying to figure out if

Demand data published = visas that will be used for people who filed in July 07.

[sandeep11]

Thanks Nishant/Spector for pointing me to the right links.


sandeep,,

I'm not entirely sure what your question means.

The limit for EB was 150,657 visas in FY2010.
DOS used 150,262 visas in EB in FY2010.

So, DOS failed to use 395 or 0.26% of the available visas.

EB3 fell short of the 43,088 allocation by 657 visas or 1.52%

The only group who failed to receive their proper allocation was EB3-ROW, as all other groups in EB3 exceeded the 7% limit.

You can also find the figures for last year here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?48-485-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI where they are split up into the various Countries / Groups.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

This month we donated to IDRF (USD 111) and St. Jude (USD 50). For prior months pls see
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-Account-of-Donations-We-Made&p=3577#post3577

Thanks to all visitors to this site whose visits make the ad revenue and hence the donations possible.

[neospeed]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!
Any breaking news coming this month?

[pch053]

Hey Guys,

I had a question. Have you heard of any denials for people who filed in July 2007 but who were not current after that? I am kind of new to this and haven't seen any. Assuming they are preadjudicated there must have been 10-15% denials right?

That was my previous question a few pages back. Does everybody who is preadjudicated mean they are approved? If USCIS cannot approve someone without the PD being current can they deny? I am just trying to figure out if

Demand data published = visas that will be used for people who filed in July 07.

Why do you think that there will be 10 - 15% denials? One scenario is that I485 will be denied if the underlying I140 get denied but I am not sure how much denials will happen for approved I140s. Another probable reason for denial that I can think of is USCIS issues a RFE on employment letter and the candidate is unable to provide the same. I don't think everybody who are pre-adjudicated will be approved right away; I have seen in trackitt that pre-adjudicated cases have received RFEs on employment letters, pay stubs, etc. I think USCIS can still deny one's application irrespective of whether the PD is current or not but I don't know how proactively this has been done.

[veni001]

Country of Chargeability - India
Category - EB2
Status - Pending
PD Range Oct 2006 to Feb 2007 to correlate to 15th Oct 2006 to 08 - Mar 2007
The number of cases obtained is 373.
Now this is the 4th business day of the month we do know that mostly the approvals are loaded early in the month but lets give the benefit of doubt and consider it as only 2 business days and assuming 20% people don't update their profiles since its early days. This gives 2/20*80/100*373 = 29.84 ~ 30. I distinctly remember last year in July only 7K folks were current but by the end of the first day itself page 1 on Trackitt which is 50 cases was almost full. One interesting thing is besides EB2-I no other category is also posting approvals. Even in the last 2 months when far fewer people have been current we have seen more approvals in the earlier days. Now when I compare last years counts on Trackitt those current in Jul 2010 were from Feb 2005 to Sep 2005 this gives 734 cases this would mean that there has been a pretty steep fall in those who posted their cases. I also noted that some people just add their cases when they are approved. So I believe that we should reduce the expected approvals on Trackitt to 15 only (50%). Each posted approval will carry more value this year than last year because more people are current and lesser representation.

Teddy,
Agree, that is why we need to be little cautious with trackitt updates. I would wait couple more days (my be August VB is out by then, and no need to look :)!) to translate approvals into numbers.

[pg_at_q]

Based on past trends, usually the bulletin dates for August and September have advanced much much rapidly then the June/July months bulletin in a fiscal year

Check out the last 2 pages

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

for FY-2008, 2009, and 2010 to see the rapid advance in Aug/Sept bulletins. My optimistic side is thumping loudly that there's no reason DoS will not follow the same trend this FY :)

[veni001]

Based on past trends, usually the bulletin dates for August and September have advanced much much rapidly then the June/July months bulletin in a fiscal year

Check out the last 2 pages

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentIndia.pdf

for FY-2008, 2009, and 2010 to see the rapid advance in Aug/Sept bulletins. My optimistic side is thumping loudly that there's no reason DoS will not follow the same trend this FY :)

pg_at_q,
When referring to previous years PD progression to predict this year movement, we need consider few other things .....

1. FY2011 is the first year (in recent past) we saw Spillover VISAs being applied to EB2 before Q4.
2. Spillover available for prior years is different from what we are predicting for FY2011.
3. Demand (i485) for prior years cutoff dates is different from this year. (example PD2005 got minimal AOS application)

[nishant2200]

Trying to put in some positive thinking on. I know I can fall flat on my face tomorrow, but putting out two thoughts.

USCIS knows the upcoming bulletin dates or knows that they are going to be advanced significantly, and that their actions in the first few days which in turn may impact the DOS demand data will have no bearing on the bulletin, and hence there is no pressure to crank the visas to reduce demand. Just like last time, no demand data will be even published.

Second, the 485s from this last few months of the fiasco period, would technically be the last ones to be pre-adjudicated, and seems that they may not all been "perfectly" pre-adjudicated, or levels of adjudication became stricter by the time they got to it, and they are sitting on them, and now, issuing RFEs for medicals, birth certificates, or EVLs, FP notices, etc. Also I think there was a lot of 485s in the last bulletin itself to do, and they maybe even a bit backlogged. Pre-adjudication may not always mean just putting a visa number, I am sure, it goes through a second "quick" review and checklist again. And now since USCIS-DOS communication for both of these above, that's why we see the NVC notices, as a last ditch effort to maximize visa usage for EB2I/C before they can give up and go to EB3.

Now if they are doing NVC for the reason above, then they need to advance this upcoming bulletin itself, so that NVC can grab those visa numbers in advance, schedule the interviews in September first week, and do it's quota, and return whatever was not used. Then in remaining part of September, they can spillover unused to EB3 if we get there.

Something is surely cooking, we can only try to guess. Sometimes, biased due to our own PDs, but trying to put some positive thoughts so that can live one more day until tomorrow.

[zenmaster]

Trying to put in some positive thinking on. I know I can fall flat on my face tomorrow, but putting out two thoughts.

USCIS knows the upcoming bulletin dates or knows that they are going to be advanced significantly, and that their actions in the first few days which in turn may impact the DOS demand data will have no bearing on the bulletin, and hence there is no pressure to crank the visas to reduce demand. Just like last time, no demand data will be even published.

Second, the 485s from this last few months of the fiasco period, would technically be the last ones to be pre-adjudicated, and seems that they may not all been "perfectly" pre-adjudicated, or levels of adjudication became stricter by the time they got to it, and they are sitting on them, and now, issuing RFEs for medicals, birth certificates, or EVLs, FP notices, etc. Also I think there was a lot of 485s in the last bulletin itself to do, and they maybe even a bit backlogged. Pre-adjudication may not always mean just putting a visa number, I am sure, it goes through a second "quick" review and checklist again. And now since USCIS-DOS communication for both of these above, that's why we see the NVC notices, as a last ditch effort to maximize visa usage for EB2I/C before they can give up and go to EB3.

Now if they are doing NVC for the reason above, then they need to advance this upcoming bulletin itself, so that NVC can grab those visa numbers in advance, schedule the interviews in September first week, and do it's quota, and return whatever was not used. Then in remaining part of September, they can spillover unused to EB3 if we get there.

Something is surely cooking, we can only try to guess. Sometimes, biased due to our own PDs, but trying to put some positive thoughts so that can live one more day until tomorrow.
+1 ...........

[ssvp22]

...then they need to advance this upcoming bulletin itself, so that NVC can grab those visa numbers in advance, schedule the interviews in September first week, and do it's quota, and return whatever was not used. Then in remaining part of September, they can spillover unused to EB3 if we get there.
One can only wish INS was that efficient. Anyhow, D day is near now. We will know by today night or tomorrow. Fortunately Test match with West Indies can help kill time.

[Monica12]

Spec, what does IBIS check and EVL mean? Thanks!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
Agree, that is why we need to be little cautious with trackitt updates. I would wait couple more days (my be August VB is out by then, and no need to look :)!) to translate approvals into numbers.

Veni, I completely agree with you in principal, since the density on Trackitt is less right now however more people are current from the corresponding period so each number is worth more. What is worrying is that there are very few approvals on all forums. There have been reports to suggest that people have been getting their approval information from attorneys or by calling the service centers and some are getting the card in the mail. You are right the Aug bulletin will come sooner and answer all questions. USCIS definitely has the full month to close all cases let’s wait and watch. All our calculations also indicate that there are numbers left and the way to go is forward.


Trying to put in some positive thinking on. I know I can fall flat on my face tomorrow, but putting out two thoughts.

USCIS knows the upcoming bulletin dates or knows that they are going to be advanced significantly, and that their actions in the first few days which in turn may impact the DOS demand data will have no bearing on the bulletin, and hence there is no pressure to crank the visas to reduce demand. Just like last time, no demand data will be even published.

Second, the 485s from this last few months of the fiasco period, would technically be the last ones to be pre-adjudicated, and seems that they may not all been "perfectly" pre-adjudicated, or levels of adjudication became stricter by the time they got to it, and they are sitting on them, and now, issuing RFEs for medicals, birth certificates, or EVLs, FP notices, etc. Also I think there was a lot of 485s in the last bulletin itself to do, and they maybe even a bit backlogged. Pre-adjudication may not always mean just putting a visa number, I am sure, it goes through a second "quick" review and checklist again. And now since USCIS-DOS communication for both of these above, that's why we see the NVC notices, as a last ditch effort to maximize visa usage for EB2I/C before they can give up and go to EB3.

Now if they are doing NVC for the reason above, then they need to advance this upcoming bulletin itself, so that NVC can grab those visa numbers in advance, schedule the interviews in September first week, and do it's quota, and return whatever was not used. Then in remaining part of September, they can spillover unused to EB3 if we get there.

Something is surely cooking, we can only try to guess. Sometimes, biased due to our own PDs, but trying to put some positive thoughts so that can live one more day until tomorrow.

Nishant, nice perspective. I agree with you that approving the preadjudicated cases is probably not a push of a button they are probably doing a high level review that explains why people are getting RFE's and FP requests. The NVC fee requests are a shining positive in the whole thing that is what gives real hope that there will be fresh intake for the next year. Other than that as you say I agree completely it’s really wait and watch and hope for the best. All our calculations also indicate that there are numbers left and the way to go is forward.

[Spectator]

Spec, what does IBIS check and EVL mean? Thanks!

IBIS = Interagency Border Inspection Services (the result must be not more than 90 days old to approve the I-485 application)

EVL = Employment Verification Letter

[Monica12]

IBIS = Interagency Border Inspection Services (the result must be not more than 90 days old to approve the I-485 application)

EVL = Employment Verification Letter

Spec, is Background and Name check already completed for the pre-adjudicated applicants? or is this part of the IBIS check? Wondering because these probably take a long time and therefore, delay the process for the people who are current.

[nayekal]

07/07/2011: Interesting USCIS Idea on the Horizon to Make a Rule to Allow EAD to H-4 Spouses of H-1B Professionals Working Under AC 21 Sections 104(c) or 106(a)
This is from http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

The USCIS is considering to initiate a proposed rule next March 2012 to extend the availability of EAD to H-4 dependent spouses of principal H-1B nonimmigrants who have begun the process of seeking lawful permanent resident (LPR) status through employment and have extended their authorized period of admission or "stay" in the U.S. under section 104(c) or 106(a) of AC 21 (Public Law 106-313). Apparently this concept is conceived to allow the eligible class of H-4 dependent spouses to work and thereby encourage professionals with high demand skills to remain in the country and help spur the innovation and growth of U.S. companies, and thus allow the United States to remain a world leader in high technology. Very stimulating idea! This may be perceived as an administrative fix of the broken employment-based immigration system. It will certainly help to stop ongoing reverse exodus of these talented foreign professionals, particularly from California, to their home countries. We will watch how far and how fast this concept will move ahead. Please stay tuned to this website for development of this news.

[Spectator]

Spec, is Background and Name check already completed for the pre-adjudicated applicants? or is this part of the IBIS check? Wondering because these probably take a long time and therefore, delay the process for the people who are current.
Not necessarily, as far as I am aware, although it would have been initiated (and completed for the vast majority of applicants).

To be approved, the FBI fingerprint and IBIS checks must have been completed satisfactorily.

If the FBI name check has been pending more than 150 days, the case shall be referred to USCIS HQ for a decision on I-485 approval. If HQ gives a positive guidance after having contacted the FBI, the I-485 can be approved, but is still subject to revocation if the FBI name check eventually returns negative results.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/2009/national-security-adjudication-reporting-020909.pdf

In the past (from Feb. 4, 2008), all cases where the FBI name check had been pending for more than 180 days could be approved automatically, but that policy was rescinded effective Feb. 9, 2009 as a result of the above memo.

[Monica12]

Thanks for the wonderful explaination, Spec!
This wait for VB is excruciating. Hoping for the best :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends user - tspace posted on IV that his / her case is approved. Looks like the attorney received the notice no mention of email / sms. If there are more reports of attorney's receiving notices then looks like the electronic notification systems have crashed as no one is reporting email / sms notifications this may well be the cause of delayed postings and attorneys would receive hard copies via snail mail.

[Monica12]

Friends user - tspace posted on IV that his / her case is approved. Looks like the attorney received the notice no mention of email / sms. If there are more reports of attorney's receiving notices then looks like the electronic notification systems have crashed as no one is reporting email / sms notifications this may well be the cause of delayed postings and attorneys would receive hard copies via snail mail.

Great news, Teddy. Thanks for keeping us posted....and USCIS.. keep them coming :)

[pch053]

On pre-adjudication: I think there are cases that hasn't been perfectly pre-adjudicated. I can talk of my own case as an example. I know I have incomplete medical reports that I couldn't complete while trying to meet Aug 17th, 2007 deadline. I had send an email to Nebraska Center asking for the status of my application. This is the reply I got from them:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Good afternoon,

USCIS records indicate that your I-485 is pending and waiting to be assigned to an officer for further review, since the pre-adjudicating process has been completed.

It appears that your fingerprints are now good until January 7, 2012.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, they are saying that pre-adjudication is complete even though they don't have all the medical details. I think I will receive a RFE for medical documents when my PD gets current and is assigned to an officer for further review. On the other hand, I do feel that they have all remaining documents in place, like i) I forwarded all AC21 documents and received an acknowledgement from USCIS on the same, ii) my last fingerprint was done on Oct'10 and that being the reason it is valid until Jan'12, etc.

[pch053]

Friends user - tspace posted on IV that his / her case is approved. Looks like the attorney received the notice no mention of email / sms. If there are more reports of attorney's receiving notices then looks like the electronic notification systems have crashed as no one is reporting email / sms notifications this may well be the cause of delayed postings and attorneys would receive hard copies via snail mail.
So far, is this the 2nd approval for the month of July in all forums? I think there has been 1 approval in trackitt and 1 in IV.

[vizcard]

07/07/2011: Interesting USCIS Idea on the Horizon to Make a Rule to Allow EAD to H-4 Spouses of H-1B Professionals Working Under AC 21 Sections 104(c) or 106(a)
This is from http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

The USCIS is considering to initiate a proposed rule next March 2012 to extend the availability of EAD to H-4 dependent spouses of principal H-1B nonimmigrants who have begun the process of seeking lawful permanent resident (LPR) status through employment and have extended their authorized period of admission or "stay" in the U.S. under section 104(c) or 106(a) of AC 21 (Public Law 106-313). Apparently this concept is conceived to allow the eligible class of H-4 dependent spouses to work and thereby encourage professionals with high demand skills to remain in the country and help spur the innovation and growth of U.S. companies, and thus allow the United States to remain a world leader in high technology. Very stimulating idea! This may be perceived as an administrative fix of the broken employment-based immigration system. It will certainly help to stop ongoing reverse exodus of these talented foreign professionals, particularly from California, to their home countries. We will watch how far and how fast this concept will move ahead. Please stay tuned to this website for development of this news.

does this mean that a H4 cannot get an EAD today ? My wife is currently on H1 but she might run out of her 6 yrs before my PD (Aug 2008) becomes current. Her company is not filing for her GC. She is hoping to continue working on an EAD but if she cannot apply for one (through me), then that will be a problem for her. She will have to manage expectations with her employer.

PS: I fall in the AC21 category.

[soggadu]

guys... is this something we have already seen?? confued with so much data flying around...

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

[bieber]

guys... is this something we have already seen?? confued with so much data flying around...

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

yes, they had it in a different place in the site before (the link is available in facts & data section)

[soggadu]

yes, they had it in a different place in the site before (the link is available in facts & data section)

so now as dates are in Mar 2007 already, they would need just around 7K more numbers to move till end of the backlog going forward and expected is 6-14K still left... makes me wonder why some people say it may or may not cross the previous landmark (Aug 01 2007)....

[neospeed]

Below from trackitt:

Finally got the good news. My attorney recieved the welcome/approval notices for me and my wife today in the mail. Here are the details:

PD Dec 1 2006
EB2
TCS
Receipt Date Sept 17, 2007
FP Once in 2007
No RFE
Online Status: Initial Review

I have been reading and getting useful info from this forum. Thanks you all. I will be happy to answer any questions.

[dec2007]

Guys,

might be a very basic question on EB2 - I.

USCIS knows the demand till August 2007. But they have I 140 data after Aug 2007.
So can they use that data to know approximate demand and move dates accordingly.

Thanks,

[tanu_75]

so now as dates are in Mar 2007 already, they would need just around 7K more numbers to move till end of the backlog going forward and expected is 6-14K still left... makes me wonder why some people say it may or may not cross the previous landmark (Aug 01 2007)....

One reason : PWMB & Porting

[Spectator]

so now as dates are in Mar 2007 already, they would need just around 7K more numbers to move till end of the backlog going forward and expected is 6-14K still left... makes me wonder why some people say it may or may not cross the previous landmark (Aug 01 2007)....soggadu,

7k sounds about correct for India.

Once you add in China as well, the figure is about 11k.

As has been pointed out, that doesn't include any PWMB or Porting cases that can also be approved.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

[zenmaster]

does this mean that a H4 cannot get an EAD today ? My wife is currently on H1 but she might run out of her 6 yrs before my PD (Aug 2008) becomes current. Her company is not filing for her GC. She is hoping to continue working on an EAD but if she cannot apply for one (through me), then that will be a problem for her. She will have to manage expectations with her employer.

PS: I fall in the AC21 category.

In your case.......
Your wife is on H1 and you are using AC21. So there is no question arising of she converting from H1 to H4 ever, because she cannot !
Unless you get current, she will have to stop working after usage of 6 years of H1. Even worse she might have to go out of US between the period of her H1 expiration and 485 application(because H4 is not an option for her - as you are no longer on H1).

Best thing is to change to employer who could file for her PERM seperately... that way she can keep working on H1 until you file 485 for her.
-------------------------

[vishnu]

Delayed bulletin isn't really a bad thing, no?

[Stemcell]

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

Q,

Delayed is ok.
But did your source get to feel the vibes in DOS ?
Thanks.

[TeddyKoochu]

So far, is this the 2nd approval for the month of July in all forums? I think there has been 1 approval in trackitt and 1 in IV.

Another one user - hotscud21 on IV reported that he received the cards directly (case in Initial Review :)), looks like nobody is receiving email / sms notifications. I hope these reports pick up in volume soon.


Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

Q the bulletin coming late is probably a good sign, I believe they are themselves trying to assess how many cases are getting closed before publishing the VB. Right now by all standards the approval volume is way too low. I sincerely hope it picks up.

[08OCT2008]

My brother n sis in law has received their GCs today in mail. Online status was not updated neither did he get any SMS or emails.
His PD was 15 Feb 2007. He applied his 485 during Jul 07.

[pch053]

Another one user - hotscud21 on IV reported that he received the cards directly (case in Initial Review :)), looks like nobody is receiving email / sms notifications. I hope these reports pick up in volume soon.



I hope these approvals keep coming. If people are only receiving snail mails, then we will probably see more approvals from next week onwards as it will take at least 3 - 4 days to reach the lawyer. I wonder why there are no emails and updates in online status!

[soggadu]

soggadu,

7k sounds about correct for India.

Once you add in China as well, the figure is about 11k.

As has been pointed out, that doesn't include any PWMB or Porting cases that can also be approved.

Spec... i have been arguing this point from last couple of months... IMO pwmb doesnt matter as they stand no chance of getting into the system this FY and i believe the same with the new porting applications... i also feel porting is not a big issue any more as more people applied for EB2 after 2007 and majority of the porting cases are already in... so porting is no more a big devil and we can comfortably ignore it...

[srini1976]

My brother n sis in law has received their GCs today in mail. Online status was not updated neither did he get any SMS or emails.
His PD was 15 Feb 2007. He applied his 485 during Jul 07.

Congrats to your Bro & S-I-L. What is their Service center?
Thanks.

[nishant2200]

My brother n sis in law has received their GCs today in mail. Online status was not updated neither did he get any SMS or emails.
His PD was 15 Feb 2007. He applied his 485 during Jul 07.

mucho felicitations sir. The most happy part of this is that his PD was 15 FEB 2007. This shows to me they are comfortable with the visa numbers they have in ample quantity so as to give a number to such a late PD as compared to Nov, Dec or Jan. 15th FEB 2007 is quite close to 8th March 2007.

[qesehmk]

I wouldn't call it delay. My observation is that it is approx 8-10th working day of the month. So there is no cause of concern.



Delayed bulletin isn't really a bad thing, no?


Q,
But did your source get to feel the vibes in DOS ?
Thanks.
None. I have good vibes though based on how things have gone so far!



Q the bulletin coming late is probably a good sign, I believe they are themselves trying to assess how many cases are getting closed before publishing the VB. Right now by all standards the approval volume is way too low. I sincerely hope it picks up.
Teddy I am not so concerned about lack of approvals online .... at least not yet. The numbers are there ... the dates have moved and we MUST see approvals. Its just a matter of time before we start seeing them.

[soggadu]

from trackitt... " Posted by msrini (5) 1 hour 22 minutes ago
Initiated a SR on July 1st and received the physical cards in mail today. No changes in online status so far!!! "

[bieber]

Spec... i have been arguing this point from last couple of months... IMO pwmb doesnt matter as they stand no chance of getting into the system this FY and i believe the same with the new porting applications... i also feel porting is not a big issue any more as more people applied for EB2 after 2007 and majority of the porting cases are already in... so porting is no more a big devil and we can comfortably ignore it...

Together IC needs atleast 11k to clear backlog, if the available number is less or equal to 11k, they may just want to wait and see for 1/2 qtrs to estimate the supply.

I think there is consensus on this forum that almost entire backlog will be cleared this fy but what happens next is more of policy issue and that's where we just have to wait

[Spectator]

Spec... i have been arguing this point from last couple of months... IMO pwmb doesnt matter as they stand no chance of getting into the system this FY and i believe the same with the new porting applications... i also feel porting is not a big issue any more as more people applied for EB2 after 2007 and majority of the porting cases are already in... so porting is no more a big devil and we can comfortably ignore it...
soggadu,

I agree that any PWMB or Porting numbers as a result of the movement will be quite small and Porting was never the devil that some people portrayed it as. At best, only a few hundred PWMB cases became current early enough to stand a chance of being approved this FY.

Even discounting those entirely, I don't think there are 11k visas left to allocate on top of the movement seen to date.

[qesehmk]

I tend to agree w Spec Teddy and others.

Just to be clear here are 2 things:
1. What is leftover is a range. Nobody knows. The possibility of backlog clearance are May 2007-Aug 2007. So Aug 2007 is not a slam dunk.
2. Date movement especially in Sep or Oct could be beyond what's possible to clear backlog. So just because dates move doesn't mean the numbers are there to support it.


soggadu,

I agree that any PWMB or Porting numbers as a result of the movement will be quite small and Porting was never the devil that some people portrayed it as. At best, only a few hundred PWMB cases became current early enough to stand a chance of being approved this FY.

Even discounting those entirely, I don't think there are 11k visas left to allocate on top of the movement seen to date.

[soggadu]

I tend to agree w Spec Teddy and others.

Just to be clear here are 2 things:
1. What is leftover is a range. Nobody knows. The possibility of backlog clearance are May 2007-Aug 2007. So Aug 2007 is not a slam dunk.
2. Date movement especially in Sep or Oct could be beyond what's possible to clear backlog. So just because dates move doesn't mean the numbers are there to support it.

i agree...

[pch053]

Another person with ID 'spyindia' reports in trackitt that his I485 has been approved. So, approvals have probably started coming. The user doesn't have a profile, so take a look at Page 3 of the thread:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/712935369/post-only-july2011-current-eb2-approvals-rfe/page/last_page

[08OCT2008]

Thanks !!

It was Texas Service Center


Congrats to your Bro & S-I-L. What is their Service center?
Thanks.

[soggadu]

soggadu,

I agree that any PWMB or Porting numbers as a result of the movement will be quite small and Porting was never the devil that some people portrayed it as. At best, only a few hundred PWMB cases became current early enough to stand a chance of being approved this FY.

Even discounting those entirely, I don't think there are 11k visas left to allocate on top of the movement seen to date.

I agree on porting with you... I am not sure on correct numbers still available as no concrete predictions have been made on this one... personal feeling is around 15K still available... lets see...

[nishant2200]

I agree on porting with you... I am not sure on correct numbers still available as no concrete predictions have been made on this one... personal feeling is around 15K still available... lets see...

There would still be some EB1 and EB2 ROW who will occupy some of the numbers which are there.

[shreyasai2004]

Gurus,

It's time to predict August Visa Bulliten. Let's predict it.

[TeddyKoochu]

Thanks !!

It was Texas Service Center

Congrats to your bro and sis in law. Looks like the online system is really not working, I haven’t heard one example thus far where somebody saw approved status online or received email / sms. So the updates looks will come by snail mail to the applicant (GC) or approval notice (Attorney), consequently the reporting will be significantly slower.

[TeddyKoochu]

Gurus,

It's time to predict August Visa Bulliten. Let's predict it.

I believe the range will be 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007 with 6K to 8K numbers being allocated.

[tnayar78]

There would still be some EB1 and EB2 ROW who will occupy some of the numbers which are there.

either aug01-2007 or July15-2008

[qblogfan]

Q, Thanks for this update.


Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

[natvyas]

GC Time from Trackitt

"I received my physical GC today in mail and have been reading lot of post from Trackitt, thought of sharing my experience for someone else who can benefit:

My Priority Date: 14-Feb-2007 EB2 TSC
RFE received for my 485 in Jan 2009 "

[pch053]

It then seems that approvals are happening with the main catch being it will reported late as the online system is not getting updated. So, probably visa numbers are still available and we will hopefully see some forward movement in the Aug bulletin.

[Spectator]

I tend to agree w Spec Teddy and others.

Just to be clear here are 2 things:
1. What is leftover is a range. Nobody knows. The possibility of backlog clearance are May 2007-Aug 2007. So Aug 2007 is not a slam dunk.
2. Date movement especially in Sep or Oct could be beyond what's possible to clear backlog. So just because dates move doesn't mean the numbers are there to support it.Q,

Beautifully explained.

[nishant2200]

and also as I saw earlier too in a post, this is the second approval seen with date in Feb 2007. Which is really close to 8th March 2007. so they are feeling comfortable in approving these later dates, which are coming much later to the nov, dec, jan. I think that's a really good sign, touchwood.

[TeddyKoochu]

I tend to agree w Spec Teddy and others.

Just to be clear here are 2 things:
1. What is leftover is a range. Nobody knows. The possibility of backlog clearance are May 2007-Aug 2007. So Aug 2007 is not a slam dunk.
2. Date movement especially in Sep or Oct could be beyond what's possible to clear backlog. So just because dates move doesn't mean the numbers are there to support it.


Q,

Beautifully explained.

Q well said + 1 to Spec. Slowly the approval reports are also picking up which is good news. Iam hopeful of 01-MAY-2007 to 01-JUN-2007 for the Aug bulletin.

[gc0907]

Friends,

We learnt from our source, most likely there won't be a bulletin this week. Sorry to take your hopes down. Likely we will see one next Wed/Thu.

Why it has to be Wed/Thu and not Mon?
This feeling of wait / anticipation is similar to the wait of 12th board exam results when the results would decide whether you would be doctor / engineer or don't know what.

[soggadu]

and also as I saw earlier too in a post, this is the second approval seen with date in Feb 2007. Which is really close to 8th March 2007. so they are feeling comfortable in approving these later dates, which are coming much later to the nov, dec, jan. I think that's a really good sign, touchwood.

my 100th post...

Once current i guess they don't follow PD to approve...so cant say for sure...

[TeddyKoochu]

my 100th post...

Once current i guess they don't follow PD to approve...so cant say for sure...

+ 1 Guys I believe within the cluster that is current they don't really seem to look at PD, it is just the lucky ones they are able to lay their hands on. The real litmus test is most people say that they are approved.

[neospeed]

Priority Date Total Cases Pending Approved Denied RFEs % Processed % Approved Average Processing Time

Mar 2007 62 59 2 1 16 5% 3% 2 years 3 months
Feb 2007 67 66 1 0 10 1% 1% 4 years 4 months
Jan 2007 75 74 1 0 17 1% 1% 2 years 2 months
Dec 2006 99 99 0 0 20 0% 0% N/A
Nov 2006 93 86 4 3 10 8% 4% 3 years 6 months
Oct 2006 81 59 22 0 17 27% 27% 4 years 7 months

[pch053]

So we have 8 approvals from Nov'06 - March'07 with probably a few more from later half of Oct'06 for PDs that got current in the month of July. Considering that we are not seeing any email or online updates and all are through snail mail, this probably isn't that much a slowdown in # of approvals. I will assume this number to rise up in a week or so.

[haripathhi]

Great Point! I second this. However, as long as we hear approvals ticking, we should be good :)


my 100th post...

Once current i guess they don't follow PD to approve...so cant say for sure...

[sswaitinggc]

Hi all, been following this forum for few weeks and its a great forum and excellent analysis, good job all GC Gurus :), my question - what is the normal trend for approval for the period in which it becomes current, is 8 normal (from pch053) or its lesser than normal....

[TeddyKoochu]

So we have 8 approvals from Nov'06 - March'07 with probably a few more from later half of Oct'06 for PDs that got current in the month of July. Considering that we are not seeing any email or online updates and all are through snail mail, this probably isn't that much a slowdown in # of approvals. I will assume this number to rise up in a week or so.


Priority Date Total Cases Pending Approved Denied RFEs % Processed % Approved Average Processing Time

Mar 2007 62 59 2 1 16 5% 3% 2 years 3 months
Feb 2007 67 66 1 0 10 1% 1% 4 years 4 months
Jan 2007 75 74 1 0 17 1% 1% 2 years 2 months
Dec 2006 99 99 0 0 20 0% 0% N/A
Nov 2006 93 86 4 3 10 8% 4% 3 years 6 months
Oct 2006 81 59 22 0 17 27% 27% 4 years 7 months

Guys I checked the I485 tracker, ordered by I485 approval / denial date with filters category = EB2 and country of chargeability = India there are only 2 approvals in Jul 2011 viz. vkkkantssv, atlperm1. Looks like something is definitely wrong with the online systems. Just saw another approval on IV - "nuvikas", he checked from the service centre.

[soggadu]

Hi all, been following this forum for few weeks and its a great forum and excellent analysis, good job all GC Gurus :), my question - what is the normal trend for approval for the period in which it becomes current, is 8 normal (from pch053) or its lesser than normal....

check the trend analysis in facts and data section... spec has the data day by day for last 3 months...

[qesehmk]

Teddy

Just playing devil's advocate....

Even if something is wrong with USCIS/DOS systems.... what's teh problem with people updating trackitt once they get notification from their attorney?


Guys I checked the I485 tracker, ordered by I485 approval / denial date with filters category = EB2 and country of chargeability = India there are only 2 approvals in Jul 2011 viz. vkkkantssv, atlperm1. Looks like something is definitely wrong with the online systems. Just saw another approval on IV - "nuvikas", he checked from the service centre.

[natvyas]

Here is my take on the rate of approvals for this month and date movement. Please feel free to correct me....

Rate of Approvals - USCIS and DOS know the demand and supply of the visas. They have about 3 months to use up all the visas which they plan to do but they dont plan/cant approve the people who became current right away because of the backlog they have owing to rapid movements over the last couple of months. They have probably set a deadline of Sept 31st to use up the supply. Hence the approval rate for people this month is low. We may want to check the approval rate overall (people who have become current in May and June) and see if approvals for those people are still coming through. Another point is that people who are calling up are getting responses such as "your case is with an officer ..please call back in 30/60 days"

PD movement - After the movements in May, June and July bulletin, USCIS and DOS have made up their mind for the cut-off dates in Aug and Sept. This movement is strictly policy related.

Regards
Nat

[Spectator]

Hi all, been following this forum for few weeks and its a great forum and excellent analysis, good job all GC Gurus :), my question - what is the normal trend for approval for the period in which it becomes current, is 8 normal (from pch053) or its lesser than normal....sswaiting,

It is not normal. Usually we would see the odd approval on the day or day after, but it usually takes about a week for most approvals to come in for a particular date.

I think the on-line system being down is probably to blame.

The number of approvals towards the end of June is also lower than I would have expected, possibly for the same reason.

Until on-line notifications come back up, the delay may stretch to a couple of weeks.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

Just playing devil's advocate....

Even if something is wrong with USCIS/DOS systems.... what's teh problem with people updating trackitt once they get notification from their attorney?

Q if everyone updates their status then it would be great service to those of us waiting because it helps to increase visibility and traceability and helps us the project better a certain percentage 10-20% normally don't update historically. I see 2 categories a) Snail Mail to Attorney (Approval Notice) / Snail Mail (GC) to the applicant b) Checking with Service Centre. Now we may say that the long weekend caused the slow start but we had a long weekend last year as well, most of the approvals are from category a) which I believe will pick up next week considering mail delivery may take 4 business days, not all people have been able to reach level 2 IO's so category b) numbers are lower. As part of all the research (Refer my discussion with Veni) we can see a trend that even though the number of people current are more this time, the number of cases on Trackitt is less, so we should expect 1/3rd to 1/4th reports on Trackitt. However even after applying all the drastic scenarios we just have 2 approvals on Trackitt that leads me wondering, the situation definitely is still bad and needs to improve I hope by the next bulletin. The online systems definitely are not working.

[ssvp22]

I looked up the data from trackitt for same time but last year:

485s_Approved Date
28 07/01/2010
26 07/02/2010
0 07/03/2010
1 07/04/2010
0 07/05/2010
14 07/06/2010
37 07/07/2010
34 07/08/2010

[TeddyKoochu]

I looked up the data from trackitt for same time but last year:

485s_Approved Date
28 07/01/2010
26 07/02/2010
0 07/03/2010
1 07/04/2010
0 07/05/2010
14 07/06/2010
37 07/07/2010
34 07/08/2010

Thanks for this compilation, only a complete failure of the online system assuming numbers are available can justify this.

[nishant2200]

Thanks for this compilation, only a complete failure of the online system assuming numbers are available can justify this.

I proposed this theory a while back that their IT systems maybe down, never thought it maybe closer to reality as much.

I saw this post by a user on trackitt, reading which shows that there is great chance above is true, they say they are getting tons of calls from people.

"I called USCIS and the customer rep. clearly told me that they are not going to transfer calls to Tier2 because apparently they have been inundated with calls all day asking them to transfer to tier 2. All she said is she can open an SR which I had already done on July 1. She did look at the details of that SR and tell me that the case has been transferred to a service center but no officer has been assigned to it yet to look at it. I was glad that she was able to give me that information. I think now I am going to wait until July 29 before I call them again. I absolutely felt guilty for calling them and bothering them and/or wasting their time because she kept repeating over and over that they have been getting calls all day asking for transfer to tier 2. I was very polite and she was too but she just kept repeating the same things over and over. I felt sorry for the woman.

Good luck to everyone. I think I am just going to take it easy now and drink my cup of chai :)!"