EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[bieber]

bieber,
USCIS updated dash board with April data earlier this week.

April 2011- i140
Receipts -7,464
Completions - 8,073
Awaiting Cust. Action - 2,491
All Other Pending - 34,352

I am waiting on Q3 FY2012 PERM data( probably next month) to update FACTS AND DATA section.

Thanks veni :)

[Gclongwait]

Hi All,

With all the calculations that Q, Venni, Spector have provided, 1st Quarter of 2008 seems more realsitic by Sep 2011 VB. Somehow, I feel this would be a repeat of Aug/Sep of 2008 where dates advanced by 2+ years and then retrogessed.

I agree with this. Looking at the NVC receipts it looks like it may actually go to about mid 2008. I think July 1 2008 by August or September and then come back to around July 1 2007 by Nov or Dec.

On another note, why do you guys think that next year SOFAD will be less. My PD is 1st week of Feb 2008 and I was thinking that next year GC would be nearly assured. Do you think it will be so less as to not even cover 7-8 mnths including PWMB + porting?

Another question I had was that my wife should soon be porting her Sep 2007 date from EB3 to EB2. Assuming I am able to file my I485 in the next few months does it make any sense for her to go the AOS route or CP is better now.

[pg_at_q]

pg_at_q why don't you email the man and see what he replies:)

If I had the contact info for the "man", I would have :p

[qesehmk]

The reason being EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are artificially low this year. But the receipts for those 485 applications is the same compared to 2010. So in 2012 we expect EB1 EB2ROW to not only receive 2012 demand but also the backlogged 2011 demand. Thats why 2012 may not be a great year for EB2IC.

As per your situation it seems you will get GC based on your wife's EB2 in 2012. I know some lawyers say CP is better. My opinion is that in this case this wont matter.


I agree with this. Looking at the NVC receipts it looks like it may actually go to about mid 2008. I think July 1 2008 by August or September and then come back to around July 1 2007 by Nov or Dec.

On another note, why do you guys think that next year SOFAD will be less. My PD is 1st week of Feb 2008 and I was thinking that next year GC would be nearly assured. Do you think it will be so less as to not even cover 7-8 mnths including PWMB + porting?

Another question I had was that my wife should soon be porting her Sep 2007 date from EB3 to EB2. Assuming I am able to file my I485 in the next few months does it make any sense for her to go the AOS route or CP is better now.

[cbpds1]

Qesehmk is predicting something different these days :) just kidding

"As per your situation it seems you will get wife based on your wifes EB2 in 2012"


The reason being EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are artificially low this year. But the receipts for those 485 applications is the same compared to 2010. So in 2012 we expect EB1 EB2ROW to not only receive 2012 demand but also the backlogged 2011 demand. Thats why 2012 may not be a great year for EB2IC.

As per your situation it seems you will get wife based on your wifes EB2 in 2012. I know some lawyers say CP is better. My opinion is that in this case this wont matter.

[shreyasai2004]

Hi Gurus,

Can uou please let me know is there any chances of PD will move to for EB2 india June 2008.
My PD is under EB2 19th May 2008. When Can I expect my PD wil current.

Thanks,
Shreya

[qesehmk]

Oops! Corrected now.


Qesehmk is predicting something different these days :) just kidding

"As per your situation it seems you will get wife based on your wifes EB2 in 2012"

I am sorry friends .... please read the thread .... its impossible to address everybody in individual manner.

Hi Gurus,

Can uou please let me know is there any chances of PD will move to for EB2 india June 2008.
My PD is under EB2 19th May 2008. When Can I expect my PD wil current.

Thanks,
Shreya

[qblogfan]

I agree with this too. I think it's very likely they will move the PD like what you said here.


I agree with this. Looking at the NVC receipts it looks like it may actually go to about mid 2008. I think July 1 2008 by August or September and then come back to around July 1 2007 by Nov or Dec.

On another note, why do you guys think that next year SOFAD will be less. My PD is 1st week of Feb 2008 and I was thinking that next year GC would be nearly assured. Do you think it will be so less as to not even cover 7-8 mnths including PWMB + porting?

Another question I had was that my wife should soon be porting her Sep 2007 date from EB3 to EB2. Assuming I am able to file my I485 in the next few months does it make any sense for her to go the AOS route or CP is better now.

[pch053]

I feel that if they want to move the dates to 2008 for taking in new I485 applications, it will more likely happen in the Sep bulletin as the purpose will be primarily to fill up the queue. The movement in the Aug bulletin will be probably anywhere around May'07 - July'07 (as all the estimates say), i.e. the range of PDs they can surely approve using this year's SOFAD. The two big unknowns are: i) how much the PDs will move in the Aug bulletin such that they will be approved by Sep'11 and ii) how much the PDs will move in Sep'07 such that a big enough buffer of I485 applications will be created for consuming the spillovers in 2012.

[tanu_75]

The reason being EB1 and EB2ROW approvals are artificially low this year. But the receipts for those 485 applications is the same compared to 2010. So in 2012 we expect EB1 EB2ROW to not only receive 2012 demand but also the backlogged 2011 demand. Thats why 2012 may not be a great year for EB2IC.

As per your situation it seems you will get GC based on your wife's EB2 in 2012. I know some lawyers say CP is better. My opinion is that in this case this wont matter.

So have denials gone up or has pending gone up? If approvals are less and receipts are same, then at least one of those two must have gone up.

[Spectator]

So have denials gone up or has pending gone up? If approvals are less and receipts are same, then at least one of those two must have gone up.

tanu,

The pending numbers have gone up consistently since February 2010 from a low of 11k to 34k in April 2011.

They have risen from 24k at the beginning of the FY.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

It isn't possible to identify the number of denials.

Hope that helps.

[leo4ever]

@Spectator,
I am new here and having a look at dashboard for the first time. So parson me if its obvious.
I chose the link you sent and its shows pending form type 140, does it mean that those are all pending I-140 which or not approved? Or are they approved I140's pending to file I485?


tanu,

The pending numbers have gone up consistently since February 2010 from a low of 11k to 34k in April 2011.

They have risen from 24k at the beginning of the FY.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=7&office=5&charttype=1

It isn't possible to identify the number of denials.

Hope that helps.

[vishnu]

If I may answer on behalf of Spec - these are I-140's that are yet to be approved.... nothing to do with 485s.

[cantwaitlonger]

Great forum providing great (and timely) information - kudos to all gurus.
Here's my first post!

Even after the '07 visagate, the trend has been significant forward movement (13-15 months) during the last quarter followed by retrogression during the first month of the new FY. I can see most of the reasons that argue for a similar movement this time around (including buffering the pipeline).
I'm trying to understand the factors that would prevent a similar trend as we approach the end of this FY. Thoughts?

[nishant2200]

I wanted to share some firsthand information I know. My co-worker is from South Korea, hence in EB2 ROW, after his labor got approved, he applied concurrently for 140-485 both in around March end this year. And he got his green card, the actual card, in two months, in May end. He has a masters in engineering from US, 4 year degree from South Korea, and his EB2 position was for Computer and Information Systems Managers, Level II wage for Los Angeles area (around 108k). My company is a small privately owned company, with our own software products.

Also I know of another guy, who was in EB3 ROW, his date somewhere in 2005, he too got a green card this year without any hassle, as soon as date became current. He had applied in July 2007, so had already approved 140, 485. Not that it matters here, it's EB3 ROW, but he too has a masters degree from US, and is from a similar, somewhat larger company that is also publicly traded.

So I do think, that it's not that they are delibrately slowing down process for other chargabilities or categories, that they are just more stricter in adjudicating, and maybe asking for more evidence, or denying if sufficient evidence not provided. That is why we are seeing less approvals materializing.

[neospeed]

I wanted to share some firsthand information I know. My co-worker is from South Korea, hence in EB2 ROW, after his labor got approved, he applied concurrently for 140-485 both in around March end this year. And he got his green card, the actual card, in two months, in May end. He has a masters in engineering from US, 4 year degree from South Korea, and his EB2 position was for Computer and Information Systems Managers, Level II wage for Los Angeles area (around 108k). My company is a small privately owned company, with our own software products.

Also I know of another guy, who was in EB3 ROW, his date somewhere in 2005, he too got a green card this year without any hassle, as soon as date became current. He had applied in July 2007, so had already approved 140, 485. Not that it matters here, it's EB3 ROW, but he too has a masters degree from US, and is from a similar, somewhat larger company that is also publicly traded.

So I do think, that it's not that they are delibrately slowing down process for other chargabilities or categories, that they are just more stricter in adjudicating, and maybe asking for more evidence, or denying if sufficient evidence not provided. That is why we are seeing less approvals materializing.

Yep that sounds accurate from my experience also.

[Gclongwait]

I wanted to share some firsthand information I know. My co-worker is from South Korea, hence in EB2 ROW, after his labor got approved, he applied concurrently for 140-485 both in around March end this year. And he got his green card, the actual card, in two months, in May end. He has a masters in engineering from US, 4 year degree from South Korea, and his EB2 position was for Computer and Information Systems Managers, Level II wage for Los Angeles area (around 108k). My company is a small privately owned company, with our own software products.

Also I know of another guy, who was in EB3 ROW, his date somewhere in 2005, he too got a green card this year without any hassle, as soon as date became current. He had applied in July 2007, so had already approved 140, 485. Not that it matters here, it's EB3 ROW, but he too has a masters degree from US, and is from a similar, somewhat larger company that is also publicly traded.

So I do think, that it's not that they are delibrately slowing down process for other chargabilities or categories, that they are just more stricter in adjudicating, and maybe asking for more evidence, or denying if sufficient evidence not provided. That is why we are seeing less approvals materializing.

Even on trakkit there are many people with 2011 PD in EB2 ROW who are already approved even though the Processing times for I485 are still in 2010, which means that the processing times cannot be relied upon. I am not sure how the dashboard is calculated so I cant say.
But I disagree with the gurus who think that EB1 and EB2 ROW are being slowed down to give visas to EB2IC. That would not make sense since that would only make a bad situation worse and could end up backlogging countries that are not backlogged. Maybe they have become more stringent or there are more checks.

[pch053]

Great forum providing great (and timely) information - kudos to all gurus.
Here's my first post!

Even after the '07 visagate, the trend has been significant forward movement (13-15 months) during the last quarter followed by retrogression during the first month of the new FY. I can see most of the reasons that argue for a similar movement this time around (including buffering the pipeline).
I'm trying to understand the factors that would prevent a similar trend as we approach the end of this FY. Thoughts?

One line of thought for not moving the dates significantly past July - Aug'07 is that there will be sufficient number of PWMB cases up to July'07 (~5K) + EB3->EB2 porting cases (~4K) for USCIS to adjudicate during the 1st 2 quarters of 2012. In that case, USCIS might move the dates during April'12 (and onwards) and take in more cases & approve accordingly based on demand & PD. To me, the better option is to advance the dates sufficiently and then retrogress as it will ensure that there will be always enough cases in the queue and no spillover visas will be wasted. But, I just wanted to mention the other possibility and have no idea what USICS will do at the end.

[cbpds1]

well u are talking of 9k cases in total till Apr 2012, however USCIS cannot adjudicate remaining 20K cases in 2-3 months before the next spillover (they need to keep 20k-30k cases in pipeline) .


One line of thought for not moving the dates significantly past July - Aug'07 is that there will be sufficient number of PWMB cases up to July'07 (~5K) + EB3->EB2 porting cases (~4K) for USCIS to adjudicate during the 1st 2 quarters of 2012. In that case, USCIS might move the dates during April'12 (and onwards) and take in more cases & approve accordingly based on demand & PD. To me, the better option is to advance the dates sufficiently and then retrogress as it will ensure that there will be always enough cases in the queue and no spillover visas will be wasted. But, I just wanted to mention the other possibility and have no idea what USICS will do at the end.

[TeddyKoochu]

One line of thought for not moving the dates significantly past July - Aug'07 is that there will be sufficient number of PWMB cases up to July'07 (~5K) + EB3->EB2 porting cases (~4K) for USCIS to adjudicate during the 1st 2 quarters of 2012. In that case, USCIS might move the dates during April'12 (and onwards) and take in more cases & approve accordingly based on demand & PD. To me, the better option is to advance the dates sufficiently and then retrogress as it will ensure that there will be always enough cases in the queue and no spillover visas will be wasted. But, I just wanted to mention the other possibility and have no idea what USICS will do at the end.


well u are talking of 9k cases in total till Apr 2012, however USCIS cannot adjudicate remaining 20K cases in 2-3 months before the next spillover (they need to keep 20k-30k cases in pipeline) .

Friends you are right the dates should be pushed forward well in advance, now if we are going to really touch 01-AUG-2011 and all preadjudicated cases are to be approved the SOFAD has to be ~ 42-43K. However in the real world if it happens then probably for the next year thy might have the following a) 6K PWMB, b) 6K Porting c) 2-3K preadjudicated cases which will be ~ 15K. It is entirely prudent to take atleast 30K more cases in the system probably draw a line at 01-APR-2008, taking extra cases as you mention will not cause any harm. Now the real essential condition for anything to happen is that we should see another 6-8K movement in the Aug bulletin this would peg the dates between 01-JUN-2007 and 01-JUL-2007 this way an interesting stage will be setup for September. What is going to happen is entirely speculative there is no precedent for that.

[qesehmk]

Teddy hit the bulls eye when he said "There is no precedent". That's what makes this so unique this time around.



Friends you are right the dates should be pushed forward well in advance, now if we are going to really touch 01-AUG-2011 and all preadjudicated cases are to be approved the SOFAD has to be ~ 42-43K. However in the real world if it happens then probably for the next year thy might have the following a) 6K PWMB, b) 6K Porting c) 2-3K preadjudicated cases which will be ~ 15K. It is entirely prudent to take atleast 30K more cases in the system probably draw a line at 01-APR-2008, taking extra cases as you mention will not cause any harm. Now the real essential condition for anything to happen is that we should see another 6-8K movement in the Aug bulletin this would peg the dates between 01-JUN-2007 and 01-JUL-2007 this way an interesting stage will be setup for September. What is going to happen is entirely speculative there is no precedent for that.

[pch053]

Surely agree that this time is unique and we are keeping our fingers crossed! On a slightly unrelated question, USCIS advanced the PDs to Aug'06 during the spillover season in 2008. At that time, there was surely not enough spillover visas to approve all cases up to Aug'06. Was there any specific reason for advancing the dates so much? Or was it primarily to clear out the CP cases with PDs up to Aug'06?

[sha_kus]

I hope they do the Aug - Sep 2008 again if not July 2007....



Surely agree that this time is unique and we are keeping our fingers crossed! On a slightly unrelated question, USCIS advanced the PDs to Aug'06 during the spillover season in 2008. At that time, there was surely not enough spillover visas to approve all cases up to Aug'06. Was there any specific reason for advancing the dates so much? Or was it primarily to clear out the CP cases with PDs up to Aug'06?

[gcq]

As for pushing dates forward for EB2, most people on this thread being EB2 assume Eb application means EB2 applications. That is incorrect. Spillovers are not meant to be exclusively for EB2. If there are pending applications in EB2, they will be assigned to them. Otherwise CO would make EB2 current and let the spillover flow down to EB3. IMO that is what is likely to happen.

When there are no "documentarily qualified" (read pre-adjudicated ) applications in EB2, visa office has to make Eb2 current. As for I-140s in pipeline, visa office has no guarantee that I-1485 filed based on this new I-140 has the potential of becoming "documentarily qualified".

[kd2008]

Surely agree that this time is unique and we are keeping our fingers crossed! On a slightly unrelated question, USCIS advanced the PDs to Aug'06 during the spillover season in 2008. At that time, there was surely not enough spillover visas to approve all cases up to Aug'06. Was there any specific reason for advancing the dates so much? Or was it primarily to clear out the CP cases with PDs up to Aug'06?

After July 2007 fiasco USCIS wasn't processing cases methodically in order of PD. Additionally, Many cases were stuck in FBI checks. So DoS moved the dates to get as many approvable/documentarily qualified cases as possible to use up the available visa numbers.

Remember USCIS does not move the dates. Ever! Its DoS.

[qesehmk]

You are right. I have mentioned that in my posts in last few weeks. At the bottom side we will see dates around May-Jun 2007. At top side. the dates could move well beyond Aug 2007 and tehn of course the extra SOFAD will be given to EB3.


As for pushing dates forward for EB2, most people on this thread being EB2 assume Eb application means EB2 applications. That is incorrect. Spillovers are not meant to be exclusively for EB2. If there are pending applications in EB2, they will be assigned to them. Otherwise CO would make EB2 current and let the spillover flow down to EB3. IMO that is what is likely to happen.

When there are no "documentarily qualified" (read pre-adjudicated ) applications in EB2, visa office has to make Eb2 current. As for I-140s in pipeline, visa office has no guarantee that I-1485 filed based on this new I-140 has the potential of becoming "documentarily qualified".

[pch053]

This is just for FYI: I had send an email to NSC a while back to check whether my I485 application has been pre-adjudicated or not. Today, I got the following reply below. My PD is July'07 and I am not current yet. Plus, I know I have incomplete medical records for which I expect to get a RFE at some point of time. I am not sure what the reply exactly means but it seems that irrespective of whether a case has been pre-adjudicated or not, an officer will probably review it once before approval.

-----------------------------------------Reply from NSC-----------------------------------------
Good afternoon,

USCIS records indicate that your I-485 is pending and waiting to be assigned to an officer for further review, since the pre-adjudicating process has been completed.

It appears that your fingerprints are now good until January 7, 2012.

Regards,
USCIS Nebraska Service Center
EX0050

[nishant2200]

This proves to me that they do have an official pre-adjudication process, since they officially and openly use this terminology. Which further gives hope that to facilitate this process, they would like to take applications in advance.

Any information is good to know and helps to make this all clearer. Thanks a lot friend for posting.


This is just for FYI: I had send an email to NSC a while back to check whether my I485 application has been pre-adjudicated or not. Today, I got the following reply below. My PD is July'07 and I am not current yet. Plus, I know I have incomplete medical records for which I expect to get a RFE at some point of time. I am not sure what the reply exactly means but it seems that irrespective of whether a case has been pre-adjudicated or not, an officer will probably review it once before approval.

-----------------------------------------Reply from NSC-----------------------------------------
Good afternoon,

USCIS records indicate that your I-485 is pending and waiting to be assigned to an officer for further review, since the pre-adjudicating process has been completed.

It appears that your fingerprints are now good until January 7, 2012.

Regards,
USCIS Nebraska Service Center
EX0050

[veni001]

Even on trakkit there are many people with 2011 PD in EB2 ROW who are already approved even though the Processing times for I485 are still in 2010, which means that the processing times cannot be relied upon. I am not sure how the dashboard is calculated so I cant say.
But I disagree with the gurus who think that EB1 and EB2 ROW are being slowed down to give visas to EB2IC. That would not make sense since that would only make a bad situation worse and could end up backlogging countries that are not backlogged. Maybe they have become more stringent or there are more checks.

Gclongwait,
Agree, artificial slowdown is really speculation. We have seen some new policy memos/review guidelines from USCIS regarding on EB1/2 i140 criteria since last year, which I believe is the main reason for the delay with all new EB1&EB2(all countries) i140/485 processing.

[bhayzone]

As for pushing dates forward for EB2, most people on this thread being EB2 assume Eb application means EB2 applications. That is incorrect. Spillovers are not meant to be exclusively for EB2. If there are pending applications in EB2, they will be assigned to them. Otherwise CO would make EB2 current and let the spillover flow down to EB3. IMO that is what is likely to happen.

When there are no "documentarily qualified" (read pre-adjudicated ) applications in EB2, visa office has to make Eb2 current. As for I-140s in pipeline, visa office has no guarantee that I-1485 filed based on this new I-140 has the potential of becoming "documentarily qualified".

"When there are no "documentarily qualified" (read pre-adjudicated ) applications in EB2, visa office has to make Eb2 current."

Can someone confirm this? Does this mean that once USCIS exhausts its current Inventory, it will open the gates for everyone to apply for the I-485?

[gcq]

"When there are no "documentarily qualified" (read pre-adjudicated ) applications in EB2, visa office has to make Eb2 current."

Can someone confirm this? Does this mean that once USCIS exhausts its current Inventory, it will open the gates for everyone to apply for the I-485?

While nobody can confirm this is going to happen, there is a strong possibility this may happen. The following link is enlightening.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

"By no means has every applicant with a priority date earlier than a prevailing cut-off date been processed for final visa action. On the contrary, visa allotments are made only on the basis of the total applicants reported documentarily qualified each month. Demand for visa numbers can fluctuate from one month to another, with the inevitable impact on cut-off dates."

[leo07]

a. This document is undated.
b. DOS has done that before, moving dates to current and had to face ire from all quarters. Sadly, from the ones who benefited from that dates-movement as well.
c. IMO, this document, applies to all but retrogressed countries. I'm sure there would be a corresponding internal memo addressed to concerned folks on the job, to apply the document as such.

Thanks for sharing the information.

While nobody can confirm this is going to happen, there is a strong possibility this may happen. The following link is enlightening.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

"By no means has every applicant with a priority date earlier than a prevailing cut-off date been processed for final visa action. On the contrary, visa allotments are made only on the basis of the total applicants reported documentarily qualified each month. Demand for visa numbers can fluctuate from one month to another, with the inevitable impact on cut-off dates."

[veni001]

While nobody can confirm this is going to happen, there is a strong possibility this may happen. The following link is enlightening.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

"By no means has every applicant with a priority date earlier than a prevailing cut-off date been processed for final visa action. On the contrary, visa allotments are made only on the basis of the total applicants reported documentarily qualified each month. Demand for visa numbers can fluctuate from one month to another, with the inevitable impact on cut-off dates."

gcq,
This is the example given in that document

"For example: If the monthly allocation target is 3,000 and we only have demand for 1,000 applicants the category can be "Current”."

First, if the demand is less the available VISA numbers then the category can be "C", so it is not a requirement.

Second, based on June inventory data USCIS need minimum SOFAD of 11.3k+porting(if any) VISAs available in the next two months to conclude that the supply is more then EB2IC (and EB2ROW) demand.

The key for SOFAD in the next two months will be based on how many of the ~20k pending EB1&EB2ROW are documentarily qualified!

As we know once FY hit OCTOBER, DOS/USCIS has to stick to monthly/quarterly limitations.

Bottom line is, (we believe) PD movement in the next two VB will be based on the policy than the numbers(demand)!

[qesehmk]

This statement is true. And that is the reason they will move dates far enough before they exhaust current backlog. The question is how far are they going to make it.

Now that is where policy & discretion comes into the picture. If their preference is to take in all then they will let the backlog vanish and then make it current in Oct-Nov. If they only want reasonably controlled movement they can move as little as 3 months ahead and still generate enough demand to take care through May 2012.

The reality could be somewhere in between. Most likely 1 yr movement so that tehy have enough to process throughout 2012 and be ready to use all SOFAD in 2012.


"When there are no "documentarily qualified" (read pre-adjudicated ) applications in EB2, visa office has to make Eb2 current."

Can someone confirm this? Does this mean that once USCIS exhausts its current Inventory, it will open the gates for everyone to apply for the I-485?

[leo4ever]

Based on lots of reading looks like VB might be for Aug'11 is moved by 3-4 months, so it will reach Jun/Jul 07.
Scenario 1: If they want to build the pipeline they might move dates for an year? they it might be moved to Apr'08 in Sep bulletin. But this will add several new cases, porting, high volume 07 and 08, will this does not cause any retro later.

And also if they move dates to say Apr'08 then this demand will be enough since most are predicting that spillover might be less next year..as..EB2 has high pending cases, labor gets approved quick these days, etc...so i think in this case it might take 2013 just to reach mid/3Q of 2008?

Scenario 2: If they move dates to say Jun 07 in Aug VB and say since they have 10K+ cases already and want to move little to gather another 20K-30K they might just move it to end of 2007. But in this case i think next year same time they will move dates to end of 2008 or beginning of 2009.

Does it make sense?


This statement is true. And that is the reason they will move dates far enough before they exhaust current backlog. The question is how far are they going to make it.

Now that is where policy & discretion comes into the picture. If their preference is to take in all then they will let the backlog vanish and then make it current in Oct-Nov. If they only want reasonably controlled movement they can move as little as 3 months ahead and still generate enough demand to take care through May 2012.

The reality could be somewhere in between. Most likely 1 yr movement so that tehy have enough to process throughout 2012 and be ready to use all SOFAD in 2012.

[neospeed]

I think cis definitely needs to move the dates to create some demand. Here are the reasons:

1) I believe most of the backlog is due to the i-140 approval delay where eb2 ROW-M-P/eb1 got stuck
2) Since most of the backlog countries (EB2I/C) have already cleared the I-40 stage and they just need to process only I-485 stage which usually takes at least 6 to 8 months.
3) the next spillover season starts around May/June/July/aug/sep 2012 , which is 8 months from August.
4) they need to start intake either in Aug/sep vb only and they cannot start once the next fiscal year starts (oct 2011),becos of the limitation with the number of monthly available visas in the first two quarters that doesn't give proper justification for cis to move the dates.

From the above factors it is evident that, they will certainly move the dates at least to the end of the 2007.

[pch053]

If the NVC fees are any indication, they might even advance the dates to at least April 2008. Based on the predictions of relatively low SOFAD for the next year, probably advancing the dates to Dec'07 will generate enough applications in the queue. However, moving it to April'08 will ensure that there is absolutely no possibility of wasting spillover visas. But, as Teddy and Q pointed out, we haven't faced this situation before and this is somewhat of an unknown territory as far as prediction of PDs is concerned.

[ssvp22]

All the analysis is really exciting resulting in 100 pageviews/day from me alone. Can we also have a counter on top of the forum showing the days, hours, minutes and seconds to the next bulletin ;)


If the NVC fees are any indication, they might even advance the dates to at least April 2008. Based on the predictions of relatively low SOFAD for the next year, probably advancing the dates to Dec'07 will generate enough applications in the queue. However, moving it to April'08 will ensure that there is absolutely no possibility of wasting spillover visas. But, as Teddy and Q pointed out, we haven't faced this situation before and this is somewhat of an unknown territory as far as prediction of PDs is concerned.

[sunny4gc]

My PD 12/05/2007.Is there a chance that I will be current by this FY?

[victorian]

This is just for FYI: I had send an email to NSC a while back to check whether my I485 application has been pre-adjudicated or not.

Hey pch053, did you open a SR before sending an e-mail? I had sent a similar e-mail to TSC, but got a reply within a couple of days telling me that I needed to open a SR before asking about the status of my application.

[self.coach]

sunny4gc, I had asked similar question on this forum (PD Aug 2009) and based on the answers I received and what I read on the forum, I think you have a good chance considering there is possibility the PD may move to 2008. Now only reason why your PD could not be current is if the movement is not made beyond July 2007 which although a possibility, seems less likely (based on what I have read).

I noticed and understood that it is extremely difficult for the gurus to keep responding to individual chances (although they were generous enough to respond back to mine, some other members were later requested to read the forum and evaluate).

Frankly I dont understand all the calculations (trying though) and this 'analysis' is strictly based on what the gurus have posted here.


My PD 12/05/2007.Is there a chance that I will be current by this FY?

[sunny4gc]

Thanks Self.coach for the response.Iam hoping that I would be current by september bulletin

[sha_kus]

I have a Question. Reading from other threads i find that people are frustrated that because of 2007 fiasco things have slowed down.. if it is true... would the cutoff date have been different or i would say some thing in 2008 at this time instead of Mar 2007?

[pch053]

Hey pch053, did you open a SR before sending an e-mail? I had sent a similar e-mail to TSC, but got a reply within a couple of days telling me that I needed to open a SR before asking about the status of my application.
No, I didn't open any SR; I just send an email requesting my status update.

[qesehmk]

That's completely untrue. Because of 2007 fiasco a lot of good things happened.

1. EB2/EB3 got to file 485 which allowed them to avail of EAD and APs and AC21. For EB3IC w a PD of 2006 and above this is a practical green card since their cases will not be touched for next 5-10 years and they can have an EAD and so keep working and keep changing jobs.
2. USCIS seemed to get their act together and started preadjudicating and sharing tons of data (w DoS and w applicants)
3. Improved perception of government agencies in the minds of applicants who had a negative image of USCIS and DoS.

There may be others too ... but the problem is neither DoS nor USCIS. The problem is with the extremely limited quota of EB. That needs to be addressed.


I have a Question. Reading from other threads i find that people are frustrated that because of 2007 fiasco things have slowed down.. if it is true... would the cutoff date have been different or i would say some thing in 2008 at this time instead of Mar 2007?

[kpt112107]

Could you please tell us the id to which you mailed?

[pch053]

My PD 12/05/2007.Is there a chance that I will be current by this FY?
I am summarizing the discussion so far. Based on the spillover estimates, the range of PDs that will be cleared this year ranges from May'07 (pessimistic) to Aug '07 w/some spillover to EB3-ROW (optimistic). The reality might be somewhere in between and may be something around June - July'07. Now, USCIS will need to fill in their queue for having enough applications for the next spillover season in 2012. At this point, it is very difficult to estimate what the ballpark of spillovers will be in 2012. More importantly, there hasn't been any previous instance of USCIS advancing the dates to create a buffer of applications that can be approved when the PDs become current. So, this is an unique situation in some sense with no earlier precedence and thus all the PD movement after July'07 is a mere speculation. If the NVC fees are any indication, they might even advance the dates to at April 2008 but nobody really knows what to expect. So, everybody is holding their breath for Aug and Sep bulletin. For PDs to go past July'07 in the Sep bulletin, we need at least 3 - 4 month movement (i.e. up to June'07 - July'07) in the Aug bulletin itself.

[pch053]

Could you please tell us the id to which you mailed?

ncscfollowup.nsc@dhs.gov

[shaumack]

I am summarizing the discussion so far. Based on the spillover estimates, the range of PDs that will be cleared this year ranges from May'07 (pessimistic) to Aug '07 w/some spillover to EB3-ROW (optimistic). The reality might be somewhere in between and may be something around June - July'07. Now, USCIS will need to fill in their queue for having enough applications for the next spillover season in 2012. At this point, it is very difficult to estimate what the ballpark of spillovers will be in 2012. More importantly, there hasn't been any previous instance of USCIS advancing the dates to create a buffer of applications that can be approved when the PDs become current. So, this is an unique situation in some sense with no earlier precedence and thus all the PD movement after July'07 is a mere speculation. If the NVC fees are any indication, they might even advance the dates to at April 2008 but nobody really knows what to expect. So, everybody is holding their breath for Aug and Sep bulletin. For PDs to go past July'07 in the Sep bulletin, we need at least 3 - 4 month movement (i.e. up to June'07 - July'07) in the Aug bulletin itself.

Very well summarized.

[sandeep11]

Yes we all are basing our assumptions on the calculations done by the Gurus here. We truly appreciate their efforts and to the most part thier calculations have proven true in the last couple of VBs. Again, we can only predict and be optimistic but can't be sure.

My take:

1. This would be a repeat of Aug/Sep of 2008 (I mentioned this few days back) and we should see dates move by another year, my reasoning behind this that DOS wouldn't want to waste any numbers this FY, so they would push USCIS to reveal their true potential in processing the cases this FY and lay a foundation for the next FY. The first two quarters of next year would be wait and watch because until then they wouldn't have spillover data.

2. Dates would move ~1 year ( hoping Mar/April 2008). Though not pinning on the mails that NVC has sent, my take on this that DOS would look at the earliest possible date in the future that can be picked and processed at the Conuslar Posts. We all know that if one who opted CP and has a PD of Mar/Apr 2008 gets current he/she has a fair chance of having their GC approved well in advance of someone who opted for AOS with a earlier PD. This ensures use of Visa Number for the DOS.

3. Dates would retrogess in Oct 2011 and fall back to Jun/Jul 2007 and remain there for the first two quarters of next FY.

4. More applications/More money to USCIS scenario is not a possbility. If the dates move they would be purely based on the numbers used/available or procedural ( which is internal to USCIS/DOS).

-Sandy










sunny4gc, I had asked similar question on this forum (PD Aug 2009) and based on the answers I received and what I read on the forum, I think you have a good chance considering there is possibility the PD may move to 2008. Now only reason why your PD could not be current is if the movement is not made beyond July 2007 which although a possibility, seems less likely (based on what I have read).

I noticed and understood that it is extremely difficult for the gurus to keep responding to individual chances (although they were generous enough to respond back to mine, some other members were later requested to read the forum and evaluate).

Frankly I dont understand all the calculations (trying though) and this 'analysis' is strictly based on what the gurus have posted here.

[qblogfan]

what you said makes perfect sense.

keep our fingers crossed!



Yes we all are basing our assumptions on the calculations done by the Gurus here. We truly appreciate their efforts and to the most part thier calculations have proven true in the last couple of VBs. Again, we can only predict and be optimistic but can't be sure.

My take:

1. This would be a repeat of Aug/Sep of 2008 (I mentioned this few days back) and we should see dates move by another year, my reasoning behind this that DOS wouldn't want to waste any numbers this FY, so they would push USCIS to reveal their true potential in processing the cases this FY and lay a foundation for the next FY. The first two quarters of next year would be wait and watch because until then they wouldn't have spillover data.

2. Dates would move ~1 year ( hoping Mar/April 2008). Though not pinning on the mails that NVC has sent, my take on this that DOS would look at the earliest possible date in the future that can be picked and processed at the Conuslar Posts. We all know that if one who opted CP and has a PD of Mar/Apr 2008 gets current he/she has a fair chance of having their GC approved well in advance of someone who opted for AOS with a earlier PD. This ensures use of Visa Number for the DOS.

3. Dates would retrogess in Oct 2011 and fall back to Jun/Jul 2007 and remain there for the first two quarters of next FY.

4. More applications/More money to USCIS scenario is not a possbility. If the dates move they would be purely based on the numbers used/available or procedural ( which is internal to USCIS/DOS).

-Sandy

[svbmanian]

Hi,

Appreciate the effort put in folks(Q,Teddy,veni etc.) for predicting and analysis on the visa movement.

I have PD of May-15 2007, and i have not filed my I-485 (PWMB) . I see that there is a good probability i will be current in the next few months and can file my I-485.Any prediction when i will get I-1485 approved ?

[pch053]

I will assume your I485 will be approved sometime late 2011; I think it will take approx 6 months to approve PWMB cases.

[ssvp22]

From what i have seen, it takes 5-6 months or more only with RFEs. If all docs are good and there are no RFEs, you can get in 3 months.


I will assume your I485 will be approved sometime late 2011; I think it will take approx 6 months to approve PWMB cases.

[nishant2200]

From what i have seen, it takes 5-6 months or more only with RFEs. If all docs are good and there are no RFEs, you can get in 3 months.

I would agree with that. For a perfect case, 3 months and even less, I posted earlier about my co-worker from South Korea who got it in 2 months including 140-485 concurrent filing and approvals. This is from what I have seen going around in my company as well as other friend's companies. And in fact, for EB2 ROW I am saying.

[Osaka001]

I would agree with that. For a perfect case, 3 months and even less, I posted earlier about my co-worker from South Korea who got it in 2 months including 140-485 concurrent filing and approvals. This is from what I have seen going around in my company as well as other friend's companies. And in fact, for EB2 ROW I am saying.

My prediction,
In June bulletin EB2 IC got ~11K visas, expect ~22K visas for next 2 months, that would clear all the pending applications with PD upto 12/2007. They may advance date by 1 year to get new applications and pre adjucate them for next season starting May/June 2012. So we can expect date is moved to 12/2008 , otherwise Current.

[natvyas]

Yes we all are basing our assumptions on the calculations done by the Gurus here. We truly appreciate their efforts and to the most part thier calculations have proven true in the last couple of VBs. Again, we can only predict and be optimistic but can't be sure.

My take:

1. This would be a repeat of Aug/Sep of 2008 (I mentioned this few days back) and we should see dates move by another year, my reasoning behind this that DOS wouldn't want to waste any numbers this FY, so they would push USCIS to reveal their true potential in processing the cases this FY and lay a foundation for the next FY. The first two quarters of next year would be wait and watch because until then they wouldn't have spillover data.

2. Dates would move ~1 year ( hoping Mar/April 2008). Though not pinning on the mails that NVC has sent, my take on this that DOS would look at the earliest possible date in the future that can be picked and processed at the Conuslar Posts. We all know that if one who opted CP and has a PD of Mar/Apr 2008 gets current he/she has a fair chance of having their GC approved well in advance of someone who opted for AOS with a earlier PD. This ensures use of Visa Number for the DOS.

3. Dates would retrogess in Oct 2011 and fall back to Jun/Jul 2007 and remain there for the first two quarters of next FY.

4. More applications/More money to USCIS scenario is not a possbility. If the dates move they would be purely based on the numbers used/available or procedural ( which is internal to USCIS/DOS).

-Sandy

If building up a pipeline is what USCIS has in mind then I would expect them to move dates in to 2008 in Aug bulletin and hold it till Sept end and retrogress in Oct. That would give the applicants sufficient time to file their paperwork.

[nishant2200]

http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html

VOL. XVII, no. 25; Jun 2011, week 4
Posted : 24.Jun.2011

(putting the date etc of bulletin as above web link may point to newer bulletins in future)

See number 3, for

"The forward movement of the DOS visa bulletin has resulted in the approval of a significant number of I-485 applications filed by the Murthy Law Firm for our clients. Most of these I-485 applications were filed in the months of June, July, and August of 2007. The approvals are arriving, literally, on a daily basis - sometimes in batches. This is expected to increase in July 2011. "

Generally I do see Murthy bulletins regularly, but this one I must give credit for informing to 'Irs' user on IV.

[TeddyKoochu]

http://www.murthy.com/bulletin.html

VOL. XVII, no. 25; Jun 2011, week 4
Posted : 24.Jun.2011

(putting the date etc of bulletin as above web link may point to newer bulletins in future)

See number 3, for

"The forward movement of the DOS visa bulletin has resulted in the approval of a significant number of I-485 applications filed by the Murthy Law Firm for our clients. Most of these I-485 applications were filed in the months of June, July, and August of 2007. The approvals are arriving, literally, on a daily basis - sometimes in batches. This is expected to increase in July 2011. "

Generally I do see Murthy bulletins regularly, but this one I must give credit for informing to 'Irs' user on IV.

Thanks for posting what this implies are that the movement is very real, those who are current will see approvals. If the early days in July see good approvals the Aug bulletin has a higher chance of showing big movement. I read that EB3-ROW folks are having to wait for months despite being current this suggests that their cap is nearing exhaustion while EB2- I numbers are in sufficient quantity for those who are current.

[beeku123]

october 2007 eb2 predictions pls?

[meso129]

This one is a great blog. Q, I pmed you how to embed/put the jpg to show up without logging in

[makmohan]

Gurus,

Is it possible to estimate the double filers and approximately how many people would there be? If one of the spouses gets the GC the other one gets it as a dependent. Does this reduction in Eb2 or even Eb3 compensate for porting?

makmohan

[qesehmk]

Meso

Thanks. I tried but its not working. Pls see first page.

Regardless WELCOME!


This one is a great blog. Q, I pmed you how to embed/put the jpg to show up without logging in


Gurus,

Is it possible to estimate the double filers and approximately how many people would there be? If one of the spouses gets the GC the other one gets it as a dependent. Does this reduction in Eb2 or even Eb3 compensate for porting?

makmohan
Mak, since I thought it would be miniscule, i never thought of it. Besides these kind of things make our estimates conservative and so my bias is always to exclude them. If you have an idea how to estimate .... would like to hear.

[Gclongwait]

Meso

Thanks. I tried but its not working. Pls see first page.

Regardless WELCOME!




Mak, since I thought it would be miniscule, i never thought of it. Besides these kind of things make our estimates conservative and so my bias is always to exclude them. If you have an idea how to estimate .... would like to hear.

I don't think there is anyway to figure that out. Most of our friend circle actually comes in the dbl filing where both spouses have perms and I140, but who knows what the percent is.

My guess would be
Pwmb +new dependents=dbl filings+non porting repeat filers + people who voluntarily or involuntarily quit the process.

[pch053]

If the above equation is true, then won't the contribution of PWMB in the PD movement predictions diminish quite a bit. I think currently it's estimated that there are about 5K - 6K PWMB cases up to Aug'07 and that number will reduce if there are similar order of 'double filings', people quitting the GC process, etc.

[nishant2200]

I do think that there are certainly somethings we have been a bit overestimating to be on conservative side, and the large movements are certainly indicative of that so far. CO surely knows something we don't, and so far, that what he knows has been on the good news side for us. I have no doubt in my mind, that if the NVC invoice notices for CP till Q1 2008 are really true, then we will get there in September bulletin. If those NVC notice news are not true, then I am not sure what the gameplan would be. (No one has actually put any actual invoice scan or pdf with demographic detail blanked out etc. just to prove, so it's all just based on some blog posts by few people, at least that's my impression).

I may sound biased because of my PD, but really honestly, it's common sense to have applications pre-adjudicated to not waste visas. It's sailing smooth for USCIS this year because of the pre-adjudicated apps, to whom they are simply stamping visa numbers each month.

If one were to ask me, that give me one answer with no ifs and buts, I would say Q1 2008 in September bulletin.

[pch053]

I do think it is most logical to move the PD to somewhere in 2008 for the Sep bulletin. This will ensure enough pre-adjudicated visas for spillover visas and no chance of wasting spillover visas. Plus, it will give USCIS enough time (Oct'11 - May'12) to pre-adjudicate the visas when the PDs won't be current. However, as mentioned earlier there has been no earlier precedence of this and other than the July-Aug'07 fiasco there hasn't been any situation where USCIS has created a buffer of I485 pending applications. So, whatever they do this time will be something new which also makes it a bit hard to predict. With all that being said, I do feel they will move the dates past July - Aug'07 (probably somewhere into 2008) with the NVC fees (I think it is true, else we wouldn't have heard it in different forums/threads) being one indicator for the same.

[qblogfan]

Last year they moved family based PDs two years in August/September, and retrogressed back in December.

If you take a look of the previous VBs, you will find the pattern of FB based movement last summer.

I think they will do the same to employment based.


I do think it is most logical to move the PD to somewhere in 2008 for the Sep bulletin. This will ensure enough pre-adjudicated visas for spillover visas and no chance of wasting spillover visas. Plus, it will give USCIS enough time (Oct'11 - May'12) to pre-adjudicate the visas when the PDs won't be current. However, as mentioned earlier there has been no earlier precedence of this and other than the July-Aug'07 fiasco there hasn't been any situation where USCIS has created a buffer of I485 pending applications. So, whatever they do this time will be something new which also makes it a bit hard to predict. With all that being said, I do feel they will move the dates past July - Aug'07 (probably somewhere into 2008) with the NVC fees (I think it is true, else we wouldn't have heard it in different forums/threads) being one indicator for the same.

[veni001]

Let's solely look at PERM data

PD2006: INDIA
Approved in 2006 = 14,068
Approved in 2007-10 = 11,635
Total = 25,703
PD2006: CHINA
Approved in 2006 = 3,943
Approved in 2007-10 = 3,111
Total = 7,054
PD2006 EBIC PERM Certifications~= 32.7k

We know that PD2006 for I&C was current during July 2007 & AUG-SEPT 2008, we do not know how many PD2006 485's got approved during this time!
Not including the approvals known demand for PD2006 - EB2IC was about 27k (from Dec 2009 EB Inventory)
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 13.0k
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 21.7k

Assume 3-5k PD2006 approved during 2007&2008, PWMB & other, then PD2006 EB2IC demand ~= EBIC PERM Labor Certifications.
If we assume all other factors, we are debating here, cancel each other then this approach should be valid for CY2007 (assuming EB2:EB3 remain same for CY2006 &CY2007).

Look at EBIC PERM data for CY 2007 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) = 29k

Known demand for EB2IC PD 2007(10-01-2010 demand data) = 15.5k
So we will see atleast an additional 13.5k EB2IC demand until Dec 2007

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your analysis.

It makes sense.

Based on PERM data, we can estimate there is 13.5k demand before 1/1/2008 and 35k demand before 7/1/2008.

If they move the PD to 7/1/2008, totally there will be 35k demand for next year's spillover. I think 7/1/2008 is an optimized choice.



Let's solely look at PERM data

PD2006: INDIA
Approved in 2006 = 14,068
Approved in 2007-10 = 11,635
Total = 25,703
PD2006: CHINA
Approved in 2006 = 3,943
Approved in 2007-10 = 3,111
Total = 7,054
PD2006 EBIC PERM Certifications~= 32.7k

We know that PD2006 for I&C was current during July 2007 & AUG-SEPT 2008, we do not know how many PD2006 485's got approved during this time!
Not including the approvals known demand for PD2006 - EB2IC was about 27k (from Dec 2009 EB Inventory)
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 13.0k
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 21.7k

Assume 3-5k PD2006 approved during 2007&2008, PWMB & other, then PD2006 EB2IC demand ~= EBIC PERM Labor Certifications.
If we assume all other factors, we are debating here, cancel each other then this approach should be valid for CY2007 (assuming EB2:EB3 remain same for CY2006 &CY2007).

Look at EBIC PERM data for CY 2007 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) = 29k

Known demand for EB2IC PD 2007(10-01-2010 demand data) = 15.5k
So we will see atleast an additional 13.5k EB2IC demand until Dec 2007

[pch053]

Last year they moved family based PDs two years in August/September, and retrogressed back in December.

If you take a look of the previous VBs, you will find the pattern of FB based movement last summer.

I think they will do the same to employment based.
Thanks for pointing me this out. One thing I see is that USCIS moved the dates both in Aug & Sep'10 and didn't retrogress until Jan'11. Is it possible to do a similar thing for employment based cases too? For example, they advance the dates a bit in Aug and more in Sep (and even Oct) and then retrogress the dates after a couple of months in Dec'11 or Jan'12. From what I have read, I understand this might violate the quarterly limits, etc but shouldn't this be applicable for Family based visas too.

The basic question I have is that is if they can advance (or at least, don't retrogress) the Family based visa dates for the 1st quarter, can the same thing be also done for employment based visas. As an example (this is just for illustration), lets say if they move the dates to June - July'07 and clear most of the pending applications by Sep, can they move forward the dates by 1 year in Oct bulletin (or Sep bulletin) and keep it like that for few months before retrogressing in the Dec or Jan bulletin? I guess one reason for retrogression from Oct onward is then the I485's can then be approved based on PDs but isn't this argument also valid for Family based visas?

[veni001]

Last year they moved family based PDs two years in August/September, and retrogressed back in December.

If you take a look of the previous VBs, you will find the pattern of FB based movement last summer.

I think they will do the same to employment based.


Thanks for pointing me this out. One thing I see is that USCIS moved the dates both in Aug & Sep'10 and didn't retrogress until Jan'11. Is it possible to do a similar thing for employment based cases too? For example, they advance the dates a bit in Aug and more in Sep (and even Oct) and then retrogress the dates after a couple of months in Dec'11 or Jan'12. From what I have read, I understand this might violate the quarterly limits, etc but shouldn't this be applicable for Family based visas too.

The basic question I have is that is if they can advance (or at least, don't retrogress) the Family based visa dates for the 1st quarter, can the same thing be also done for employment based visas. As an example (this is just for illustration), lets say if they move the dates to June - July'07 and clear most of the pending applications by Sep, can they move forward the dates by 1 year in Oct bulletin (or Sep bulletin) and keep it like that for few months before retrogressing in the Dec or Jan bulletin? I guess one reason for retrogression from Oct onward is then the I485's can then be approved based on PDs but isn't this argument also valid for Family based visas?

pch053,
Here is the explanation provided by DOS for rapid forward movement of FB cut-off dates

"There continues to be extremely rapid forward movement of most Family preference cut-off dates. This is a direct result of the lack of demand by potential applicants who have chosen not to pursue final action on their cases, or who may no longer be eligible for status. The rapid movement provides the best opportunity to maximize number use under the FY-2010 annual numerical limitations. Should applicants eventually decide to pursue action on their cases it will have a significant impact on the cut-off dates."

Which may not be true for EB cases...

[Gclongwait]

Let's solely look at PERM data

PD2006: INDIA
Approved in 2006 = 14,068
Approved in 2007-10 = 11,635
Total = 25,703
PD2006: CHINA
Approved in 2006 = 3,943
Approved in 2007-10 = 3,111
Total = 7,054
PD2006 EBIC PERM Certifications~= 32.7k

We know that PD2006 for I&C was current during July 2007 & AUG-SEPT 2008, we do not know how many PD2006 485's got approved during this time!
Not including the approvals known demand for PD2006 - EB2IC was about 27k (from Dec 2009 EB Inventory)
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 13.0k
EB2IC 485 approvals FY2007 = 21.7k

Assume 3-5k PD2006 approved during 2007&2008, PWMB & other, then PD2006 EB2IC demand ~= EBIC PERM Labor Certifications.
If we assume all other factors, we are debating here, cancel each other then this approach should be valid for CY2007 (assuming EB2:EB3 remain same for CY2006 &CY2007).

Look at EBIC PERM data for CY 2007 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) = 29k

Known demand for EB2IC PD 2007(10-01-2010 demand data) = 15.5k
So we will see atleast an additional 13.5k EB2IC demand until Dec 2007

Veni,
If I understand you correctly then according to our calculations we would have expected =~ 65K I485 for 2006 but we had only about 32000. Adjusting for people who may have added a dependent after July 2007 or Aug 2008, say add another 5K, that would take us only to 40K. That would mean we are off by 20K+ for 2006, thats HUGE and if the same applies for 2007 that would make a big difference in the predictions...right???

[veni001]

Veni,
If I understand you correctly then according to our calculations we would have expected =~ 65K I485 for 2006 but we had only about 32000. Adjusting for people who may have added a dependent after July 2007 or Aug 2008, say add another 5K, that would take us only to 40K. That would mean we are off by 20K+ for 2006, thats HUGE and if the same applies for 2007 that would make a big difference in the predictions...right???

Gclongwait,
No,we never estimated 65k EB2IC485 demand for any one year!
Based on the PERM numbers (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) we are(at least i am) using 65:35 split for EB2IC:EB3IC until CY 2007 and 70:30 for 2008 & 2009, 75:25 from CY2010 onward...
And i am using 20% factor for denial/rejection, dropout, double filing...etc at 140 stage. 140 to 485 ratio is 2.1 for EB2 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)) (average 2.04 only)

So for CY 2006 EBIC PERM certifications = 32.7k

If we apply the above factors to PERM data, CY2006 EB2IC demand = 32.7K*0.65*0.8*2.1 = 35.7k (this number is very close to the actual)
If we apply the same for CY 2007 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), EB2IC demand = 29k*0.65*0.8*2.1= 31.7k (which i believe again going to be very close to actual)

My be you are reading CY2006&2007 together!

[suninphx]

Gclongwait,
No,we never estimated 65k EB2IC485 demand for any one year!
Based on the PERM numbers (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) we are(at least i am) using 65:35 split for EB2IC:EB3IC until CY 2007 and 70:30 for 2008 & 2009, 75:25 from CY2010 onward...
And i am using 20% factor for denial/rejection, dropout, double filing...etc at 140 stage. 140 to 485 ratio is 2.1 for EB2 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)) (average 2.04 only)

So for CY 2006 EBIC PERM certifications = 32.7k

If we apply the above factors to PERM data, CY2006 EB2IC demand = 32.7K*0.65*0.8*2.1 = 35.7k (this number is very close to the actual)
If we apply the same for CY 2007 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)), EB2IC demand = 29k*0.65*0.8*2.1= 31.7k (which i believe again going to be very close to actual)

My be you are reading CY2006&2007 together!

I would expect this percentage to be higher for 2008. I personally know 4-5 people who have gone back to India and dont intend to come back even if their PD becomes current.

[veni001]

I would expect this percentage to be higher for 2008. I personally know 4-5 people who have gone back to India and dont intend to come back even if their PD becomes current.

suninphx,
Agree, this factor changes with economy/trend. Bout we can average it out to 20%(80:20)

[veni001]

As we have been discussing on processing delays(Kazarian guidance, memos...etc)
Read more on USCIS Open Forum Update at this link (http://www.visalawyerblog.com/2011/06/uscis_open_forum_june_2011_upd.html)

[makmohan]

Mak, since I thought it would be miniscule, i never thought of it. Besides these kind of things make our estimates conservative and so my bias is always to exclude them. If you have an idea how to estimate .... would like to hear.

Q,

At least 5 of my friends here are double filers - mixed EB2 and Eb3s.

Assumption of 10% double filer estimates would only change our factor of 2.2 to 2.15 which I don't think will make a big change in our final calculations (may be I am wrong) - 90*2.2 + 10*1.73 = 198 + 17.3 = 215.3/100 = 2.153. I think 10% of EBIC being double filers is a fair assumption for several reasons.

My feeling (not backed by any numbers) is that this factor is powerful enough to cancel out any porting.

- makmohan

[neospeed]

Q,

At least 5 of my friends here are double filers - mixed EB2 and Eb3s.

Assumption of 10% double filer estimates would only change our factor of 2.2 to 2.15 which I don't think will make a big change in our final calculations (may be I am wrong) - 90*2.2 + 10*1.73 = 198 + 17.3 = 215.3/100 = 2.153. I think 10% of EBIC being double filers is a fair assumption for several reasons.

My feeling (not backed by any numbers) is that this factor is powerful enough to cancel out any porting.

- makmohan

Im one of those double filers :)

[happyboy]

Im one of those double filers :)

I think there will be at least 20% member either double files including the wife and husbad both having labors. I know few coples both having the labor and 140.

[qesehmk]

Thank you Veni. This is an excellent article that lays out the reasons why EB1 is having such a difficult time this year. What is mentioned here tells you that there is a good likelihood that EB1 woes might continue into 2012. The problem lies with USCIS' stance / need to have discretion in determining whether the evidence provide by an EB1 applicant is "good enough". That "good enough" (my words) is the problem... that provides USCIS sufficient discretion.


For those who don't know what this is all about .... a brief summary -

Just a year back or so - USCIS would count the EB1 evidences and if the count was ok ... they would approve the case without (much) looking into the quality of the evidence. Then came a russian scientist/professor/researcher named Kazarian whose case was denied by USCIS because they said he failed to provide 3 counts of evidences. Courts upon examining his case directed USCIS to count evidence without checking quality and then separately do a quality check. So in essence the courts asked USCIS to not reject kazarian case because he in fact had provided 3 evidences. But courts allowed USCIS to reject kazarian case based on the quality of the evidence.

Now that's what is happening. Because of this 2 stage or 2 prong approach. USCIS is forced to do a quality check on all evidences which is delaying EB1. Additionally there are not very many good guidelines or templates for officers to determine "quality" of each evidence. So you can imagine - the officers tend to deny cases where the evidence is not overwhelming.

This situation is going to continue for foreseeable future until somebody restores sanity to this process. So EB2IC guys this is a good news to you until EB1 guys start filing in EB2!!!




As we have been discussing on processing delays(Kazarian guidance, memos...etc)
Read more on USCIS Open Forum Update at this link (http://www.visalawyerblog.com/2011/06/uscis_open_forum_june_2011_upd.html)

[qesehmk]

Again ... its fine if somebody calculates this and incorportes in their forecast. But my "personal" tendency is to keep these kind of things out of the equation especially when they create upside to the forecast. This way if the actuals turn out better for us that is a pleasant surprise. And if the assumption doesn't hold then at least we are not disappointed.

As per 10% assumption ... that seems a bit high to me. Just gut feeling .... I don't have any solid reason to say why I think 10% is high.

Q,

At least 5 of my friends here are double filers - mixed EB2 and Eb3s.

Assumption of 10% double filer estimates would only change our factor of 2.2 to 2.15 which I don't think will make a big change in our final calculations (may be I am wrong) - 90*2.2 + 10*1.73 = 198 + 17.3 = 215.3/100 = 2.153. I think 10% of EBIC being double filers is a fair assumption for several reasons.

My feeling (not backed by any numbers) is that this factor is powerful enough to cancel out any porting.

- makmohan

[veni001]

Thank you Veni. This is an excellent article that lays out the reasons why EB1 is having such a difficult time this year. What is mentioned here tells you that there is a good likelihood that EB1 woes might continue into 2012. The problem lies with USCIS' stance / need to have discretion in determining whether the evidence provide by an EB1 applicant is "good enough". That "good enough" (my words) is the problem... that provides USCIS sufficient discretion.


For those who don't know what this is all about .... a brief summary -

Just a year back or so - USCIS would count the EB1 evidences and if the count was ok ... they would approve the case without (much) looking into the quality of the evidence. Then came a russian scientist/professor/researcher named Kazarian whose case was denied by USCIS because they said he failed to provide 3 counts of evidences. Courts upon examining his case directed USCIS to count evidence without checking quality and then separately do a quality check. So in essence the courts asked USCIS to not reject kazarian case because he in fact had provided 3 evidences. But courts allowed USCIS to reject kazarian case based on the quality of the evidence.

Now that's what is happening. Because of this 2 stage or 2 prong approach. USCIS is forced to do a quality check on all evidences which is delaying EB1. Additionally there are not very many good guidelines or templates for officers to determine "quality" of each evidence. So you can imagine - the officers tend to deny cases where the evidence is not overwhelming.

This situation is going to continue for foreseeable future until somebody restores sanity to this process. So EB2IC guys this is a good news to you until EB1 guys start filing in EB2!!!

Q,
Agree, even lawyers are talking about post Kazarian era now!
Not only EB1 but EB2 Exceptional ability cases also affected by the USCIS Policy Memorandum (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/i-140-evidence-pm-6002-005-1.pdf) resulted from USCUS vs Kazarian case. (http://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2010/03/04/07-56774.pdf)

[nishant2200]

Q,
Agree, even lawyers are talking about post Kazarian era now!
Not only EB1 but EB2 Exceptional ability cases also affected by the USCIS Policy Memorandum (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/i-140-evidence-pm-6002-005-1.pdf) resulted from USCUS vs Kazarian case. (http://www.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2010/03/04/07-56774.pdf)

So some thoughts on this. EB1 for these exceptional aliens and EB2 exceptional ability with NIW, both of these were used by organizations like Universities, Hospitals, Non Profit Organizations, and big companies like Cisco or Qualcomm for PhD candidates, post doc grads, professors, intellecutals and so on. Now if you can't do this, you need to go through a very important step. Labor. Which means Prevailing Wage Determination by SWA and attesting to paying that. And also that implies paying a high salary, you can't escape with just anything. Also means a bonafide recruiting effort, advertising, burden of proof for legal and audit purposes.

The organizations mentioned above, except for companies like Cisco, Intel who are big in research and engineering, the universities, hospitals, Non profit's are typically now facing a new process, and something which they didn't face too much before. And they can't just go into EB2 with NIW, they will again face same scrutiny, they need to get into EB2 with Labor, just like us, if they want to reduce the evidence for exceptional research etc.

Until so far on this analysis I have put, let's keep in mind that we should not think just of Indians or Chinese, but other thousands of countries folks, like russians, europeans, who would occupy these visas. and now below an example I will give, which will show, that for a Indian, who would be in EB1 and get his GC asap, now he is into EB2, and that one EB1 visa is going to spill over into EB2.

My friend's relative, Indian, has a PhD, and got a job in Cisco for 100k. Even at this salary, for a PhD, in bay area, normally they would happily go EB1. But now they are not, they know, they can't. So they will have to go through EB2 route with Labor, not NIW.

I think that the criteria for EB1 or EB2 with NIW is quite high, which is great, but only anamoly is the multi-national manager thing in EB1, which is being exploited by some Indian companies. If you say EB1 for researchers has such high criteria, you need research papers, recognition in international journals, scholars in the field to give reference letters, etc then I don't get how a project manager in some huge indian company is level to that :) They still don't need a labor, and they get into EB1 with even 90k salary in California. That is then being unfair to the professors and PhDs!

[veni001]

So some thoughts on this. EB1 for these exceptional aliens and EB2 exceptional ability with NIW, both of these were used by organizations like Universities, Hospitals, Non Profit Organizations, and big companies like Cisco or Qualcomm for PhD candidates, post doc grads, professors, intellecutals and so on. Now if you can't do this, you need to go through a very important step. Labor. Which means Prevailing Wage Determination by SWA and attesting to paying that. And also that implies paying a high salary, you can't escape with just anything. Also means a bonafide recruiting effort, advertising, burden of proof for legal and audit purposes.

The organizations mentioned above, except for companies like Cisco, Intel who are big in research and engineering, the universities, hospitals, Non profit's are typically now facing a new process, and something which they didn't face too much before. And they can't just go into EB2 with NIW, they will again face same scrutiny, they need to get into EB2 with Labor, just like us, if they want to reduce the evidence for exceptional research etc.

Until so far on this analysis I have put, let's keep in mind that we should not think just of Indians or Chinese, but other thousands of countries folks, like russians, europeans, who would occupy these visas. and now below an example I will give, which will show, that for a Indian, who would be in EB1 and get his GC asap, now he is into EB2, and that one EB1 visa is going to spill over into EB2.

My friend's relative, Indian, has a PhD, and got a job in Cisco for 100k. Even at this salary, for a PhD, in bay area, normally they would happily go EB1. But now they are not, they know, they can't. So they will have to go through EB2 route with Labor, not NIW.

I think that the criteria for EB1 or EB2 with NIW is quite high, which is great, but only anamoly is the multi-national manager thing in EB1, which is being exploited by some Indian companies. If you say EB1 for researchers has such high criteria, you need research papers, recognition in international journals, scholars in the field to give reference letters, etc then I don't get how a project manager in some huge indian company is level to that :) They still don't need a labor, and they get into EB1 with even 90k salary in California. That is then being unfair to the professors and PhDs!

nishant2200,
Increased scrutiny not only requires labor process(EB1-->EB2) but also cost additional $$ to the employer, in most cases result in delaying the process.

Until last year EB1C usage (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-(From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics)) was averaging about 55% of EB1.
EB1C misuse was across the board even though EB1IC exploited to the max due to EB2IC retrogression. I think in light of new scrutiny not only for EB1/EB2 but also on other VISAs (H1B,L1A/B, B1...ect) we should see significant decrease(EB1 usage) across the board.

At some point USCIS has to catch-up with all EB1/EB2ROW pending inventory, this could be in FY2013 or FY2014..., which may not be a good year for EB2IC counting on SOFAD.

[aary09]

Thanks for the info on kazarian

Thank you Veni. This is an excellent article that lays out the reasons why EB1 is having such a difficult time this year. What is mentioned here tells you that there is a good likelihood that EB1 woes might continue into 2012. The problem lies with USCIS' stance / need to have discretion in determining whether the evidence provide by an EB1 applicant is "good enough". That "good enough" (my words) is the problem... that provides USCIS sufficient discretion.


For those who don't know what this is all about .... a brief summary -

Just a year back or so - USCIS would count the EB1 evidences and if the count was ok ... they would approve the case without (much) looking into the quality of the evidence. Then came a russian scientist/professor/researcher named Kazarian whose case was denied by USCIS because they said he failed to provide 3 counts of evidences. Courts upon examining his case directed USCIS to count evidence without checking quality and then separately do a quality check. So in essence the courts asked USCIS to not reject kazarian case because he in fact had provided 3 evidences. But courts allowed USCIS to reject kazarian case based on the quality of the evidence.

Now that's what is happening. Because of this 2 stage or 2 prong approach. USCIS is forced to do a quality check on all evidences which is delaying EB1. Additionally there are not very many good guidelines or templates for officers to determine "quality" of each evidence. So you can imagine - the officers tend to deny cases where the evidence is not overwhelming.

This situation is going to continue for foreseeable future until somebody restores sanity to this process. So EB2IC guys this is a good news to you until EB1 guys start filing in EB2!!!

[makmohan]

But my "personal" tendency is to keep these kind of things out of the equation especially when they create upside to the forecast.

I agree 100% with you as these factors can be negligible and can mess real calculations. These factors can only add some optimism which can be a pleasant surprise for us. Let's wait and watch. Thanks!

- makmohan

[pch053]

Q, Veni, Nishant,
I think what you guys are saying makes perfect sense. I know of two current EB1A cases of my friends that are pending o& going through RFEs (I feel there is a good chance of getting denied) that would have gotten approved 2 years back. I have seen multiple average cases getting approved in 2008 - 2009 and the catch now is the "quality" of evidence. Previously, someone with a few publications in not so high impact factor journals, few citations of his/her work and having reviewed a couple of papers have been accepted because s/he satisfied 3 criteria of i) publication, ii) others have cited his/her work and iii) the person has judged other's work. But, now these cases will almost surely be rejected. I think the big employers like Cisco, Intel, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Adobe and many others won't have issues in taking the EB2 route and based on my personal experience, they are quite stringent while applying under EB1B category. The lawyer specifically told me that unless your job is a 100% research job we can't go for EB1B; some companies use the 100% research job duties very strictly and some companies are not that stringent on this issue. I think the real problem will be for Post Doctoral researchers, research scientists in universities, etc who now have to go with EB2 option. I also do feel that number of EB2 applicants will increase. As Q mentioned, many of the EB1A, EB1B and EB2NIW will now apply under EB2 category; so, not sure at the end of the day how much beneficial it will be for EB2I/C.

[veni001]

Q, Veni, Nishant,
I think what you guys are saying makes perfect sense. I know of two current EB1A cases of my friends that are pending o& going through RFEs (I feel there is a good chance of getting denied) that would have gotten approved 2 years back. I have seen multiple average cases getting approved in 2008 - 2009 and the catch now is the "quality" of evidence. Previously, someone with a few publications in not so high impact factor journals, few citations of his/her work and having reviewed a couple of papers have been accepted because s/he satisfied 3 criteria of i) publication, ii) others have cited his/her work and iii) the person has judged other's work. But, now these cases will almost surely be rejected. I think the big employers like Cisco, Intel, Qualcomm, Microsoft, Adobe and many others won't have issues in taking the EB2 route and based on my personal experience, they are quite stringent while applying under EB1B category. The lawyer specifically told me that unless your job is a 100% research job we can't go for EB1B; some companies use the 100% research job duties very strictly and some companies are not that stringent on this issue. I think the real problem will be for Post Doctoral researchers, research scientists in universities, etc who now have to go with EB2 option. I also do feel that number of EB2 applicants will increase. As Q mentioned, many of the EB1A, EB1B and EB2NIW will now apply under EB2 category; so, not sure at the end of the day how much beneficial it will be for EB2I/C.

pch053,
If EB1 trend continue similar to this year( 50% or less usage) in future, then EB2 can bank on 20k from EB1 and 5-8k from EB5 every year.
Even if EB2ROW takes all spillover from EB5 due to increased filings, since EBC is getting less PERM filings,EB2I can continue to receive 20K on average every year, which could help EB2I to stick to the 5 year rule to get GC!

[snathan]

Thank you Veni. This is an excellent article that lays out the reasons why EB1 is having such a difficult time this year. What is mentioned here tells you that there is a good likelihood that EB1 woes might continue into 2012. The problem lies with USCIS' stance / need to have discretion in determining whether the evidence provide by an EB1 applicant is "good enough". That "good enough" (my words) is the problem... that provides USCIS sufficient discretion.


For those who don't know what this is all about .... a brief summary -

Just a year back or so - USCIS would count the EB1 evidences and if the count was ok ... they would approve the case without (much) looking into the quality of the evidence. Then came a russian scientist/professor/researcher named Kazarian whose case was denied by USCIS because they said he failed to provide 3 counts of evidences. Courts upon examining his case directed USCIS to count evidence without checking quality and then separately do a quality check. So in essence the courts asked USCIS to not reject kazarian case because he in fact had provided 3 evidences. But courts allowed USCIS to reject kazarian case based on the quality of the evidence.

Now that's what is happening. Because of this 2 stage or 2 prong approach. USCIS is forced to do a quality check on all evidences which is delaying EB1. Additionally there are not very many good guidelines or templates for officers to determine "quality" of each evidence. So you can imagine - the officers tend to deny cases where the evidence is not overwhelming.

This situation is going to continue for foreseeable future until somebody restores sanity to this process. So EB2IC guys this is a good news to you until EB1 guys start filing in EB2!!!

It should not have any impact for the EB2IC. Once the EB2 ROW consumes its annual quota, it has to wait for spill over from the EB1. But the spill over visas will be given to the oldest PD first. So the EB2Ic will get the visa.

[veni001]

It should not have any impact for the EB2IC. Once the EB2 ROW consumes its annual quota, it has to wait for spill over from the EB1. But the spill over visas will be given to the oldest PD first. So the EB2Ic will get the visa.

snathan,
EB2IC will only get spillover VISAs after satisfying EB2ROW demand!

[snathan]

snathan,
EB2IC will only get spillover VISAs after satisfying EB2ROW demand!

Can you explain....Shouldnt it go to olderst PD first when it comes to spill over?

[qesehmk]

Why not? this year EB2IC are benefitting from the woes of EB1. As EB1 moves to EB2 the ROW demand will be higher than usual. That's how EB2IC will stop benefitting from the kazarian situation.


It should not have any impact for the EB2IC. Once the EB2 ROW consumes its annual quota, it has to wait for spill over from the EB1. But the spill over visas will be given to the oldest PD first. So the EB2Ic will get the visa.


Can you explain....Shouldnt it go to olderst PD first when it comes to spill over?

Spec had explained this a while back and I would say jury is out on this one. But the theory is that EB2ROW doesn't spillover to EB2IC until ALL ROW countries reach their 7%. Practically EB2ROW demand finishes much before consuming their own quota and hence we haven't seen if Spec's theory is true.

[Spectator]

Can you explain....Shouldnt it go to olderst PD first when it comes to spill over?

snathan,

Probably the best thing is to read post #16 in this thread http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs

If EB2-ROW had demand in excess of their allocation, they would be "qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas", since Countries within it would not yet have reached their individual 7% limits.

Only when demand from such cases had been satisfied can the provisions of INA 202 (a)(5) come into play which allows visas to be allocated to Countries who have reached their own 7% limit.

It is only then that the provisions of INA 203(e), which stipulates that visas are awarded "to eligible immigrants in the order in which a petition in behalf of each such immigrant is filed with the Attorney General" come into play for China and India.

Until that point, China and India are not eligible to receive spare visas, so it would be the earliest PDs in the pool of ROW applicants.

[neospeed]

Just wondering what will be the conservative, realistic and maximum movement for Aug vb based on the data we have?

[veni001]

Just wondering what will be the conservative, realistic and maximum movement for Aug vb based on the data we have?

neospeed,
My predictions never came true, but let me try!

EB2IC for AUG2011VB
Conservative:01JUN2007
Realistic:01AUG2007
Maximum:01JAN2008

[qesehmk]

Veni

The only thing I might wonder is whether they will move dates post Jul 2007 prior to Sep 2011? I would think they should do it either in Sep or Oct if at all they are going to do it.


neospeed,
My predictions never came true, but let me try!

EB2IC for AUG2011VB
Conservative:01JUN2007
Realistic:01AUG2007
Maximum:01JAN2008

[veni001]

Veni

The only thing I might wonder is whether they will move dates post Jul 2007 prior to Sep 2011? I would think they should do it either in Sep or Oct if at all they are going to do it.

Q,
As long as DOS/USCIS have plan to move EB2IC dates post July 2007 in CY2011 then i don't think it will make any difference if they move it in AUG Vs OCT, they would rather move dates earlier than FY start!

[pch053]

I think in the last 3 bulletins, roughly 24K spillovers have been used for EB2-I/C. We need another 10K - 11K spillovers to clear the pending I485 applications. To move the PDs to 1st Aug'07 (i.e. clearing almost all of the pending applications), it will be a similar forward movement (~20 weeks) like the July bulletin. If USCIS estimates that another 11K spillover is available, will they move the dates to Aug'07 in the Aug bulletin itself or will they move the dates forward by 2 - 3 months in Aug bulletin and then provide the final surge in Sep bulletin (i.e. split the movement into 2 steps). I guess no one knows the real answer but I think Q mentioned in one of the earlier posts about the pros of moving the dates to Aug'07 in the Aug'11 bulletin itself. On the flip side, if USCIS feels that there are not 11K spillovers left, they will probably move the dates to anywhere around May'07 - Aug'07 depending on their spillover estimates.

[pch053]

On a different note, this trackitt thread emphasizes on "quality" of one's credentials (publications, citations, etc) for EB1 approval:
http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i140/704699543/eb1-ea-approved-after-noid/page/last_page

[snathan]

neospeed,
My predictions never came true, but let me try!

EB2IC for AUG2011VB
Conservative:01JUN2007
Realistic:01AUG2007
Maximum:01JAN2008

Oh no....please move it till Feb 2008...;)

[qesehmk]

Friends, we made yet another small donation from our advertisement revenues. Thanks to you all .... whatever meagre revenues we have, we will continue to make donations to good causes. So feel free to make suggestions.

You can find the list here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-List-of-Donations&goto=newpost

[leo07]

IMO, Kazarian memo will only 'delay' the processing, but will NOT have a impact on EB2IC numbers in the long run.( span of > 2 years). Any date movements that we can attribute to this memo are temporary, will have an opposite effect subsequent FY.

Let's call the total number of people who are affected by Kazarian memo, who either because of denials or fear tend apply in EB2 as:'X'

Until last year this X used to be in EB1.
Starting this year this, this X moved to Eb2.

Starting this year, EB1 spill over(SO) increased by X
Starting next year EB2 FAD will be decreased by same X

If you average out 2 year numbers, this effect must be canceled out. If I make any sense, that is:)



snathan,

Probably the best thing is to read post #16 in this thread http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs

If EB2-ROW had demand in excess of their allocation, they would be "qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas", since Countries within it would not yet have reached their individual 7% limits.

Only when demand from such cases had been satisfied can the provisions of INA 202 (a)(5) come into play which allows visas to be allocated to Countries who have reached their own 7% limit.

It is only then that the provisions of INA 203(e), which stipulates that visas are awarded "to eligible immigrants in the order in which a petition in behalf of each such immigrant is filed with the Attorney General" come into play for China and India.

Until that point, China and India are not eligible to receive spare visas, so it would be the earliest PDs in the pool of ROW applicants.

[vishnu]

Leo - I agree broadly but a HUGE difference between EB1 and EB2 is labor, which is a big impediment for filings. Companies are often hesitant or reluctant to go through the laborious process. So I think not all EB1s will end up via EB2.

[veni001]

Leo - I agree broadly but a HUGE difference between EB1 and EB2 is labor, which is a big impediment for filings. Companies are often hesitant or reluctant to go through the laborious process. So I think not all EB1s will end up via EB2.


IMO, Kazarian memo will only 'delay' the processing, but will NOT have a impact on EB2IC numbers in the long run.( span of > 2 years). Any date movements that we can attribute to this memo are temporary, will have an opposite effect subsequent FY.

Let's call the total number of people who are affected by Kazarian memo, who either because of denials or fear tend apply in EB2 as:'X'

Until last year this X used to be in EB1.
Starting this year this, this X moved to Eb2.

Starting this year, EB1 spill over(SO) increased by X
Starting next year EB2 FAD will be decreased by same X

If you average out 2 year numbers, this effect must be canceled out. If I make any sense, that is:)

leo07,
In addition, that "x" contain an average of 10k -12k EB1IC for which EB2 is retrogressed, even if you take EB1IC will be affected 50% only, then EB2I can bank on an additional 5k towards ( in-addition to regular 2.8k) backlog reduction.

[Spectator]

leo07,
In addition, that "x" contain an average of 10k -12k EB1IC for which EB2 is retrogressed, even if you take EB1IC will be affected 50% only, then EB2I can bank on an additional 5k towards ( in-addition to regular 2.8k) backlog reduction.
I can see a mid point between Leo and Veni's viewpoints.

Much of the lower demand that DOS have seen this year for EB1 can be attributed to the longer processing times since Kazarian, which has led to fewer cases being adjudicated in FY2011.

Even if USCIS do not address the backlog that has built up, the pipeline has now been established and I can see EB1 approvals rising in future years to nearer 30k.

That would give a potential 10k FD to EB2.

If, using figures from the above posts, only 50% of former EB1 cases are now filed in EB2 in future years, then the effective FD would reduce to 5k.

If IC accounted for 25% of those extra EB2 cases, they would have later PDs, so that would add 1.25k extra numbers to be used for the oldest IC PD cases.

Overall, the effect would be around 6-7k FAD to EB2 retrogressed cases.

You can play around with the figures to give more optimistic or pessimistic scenarios, but I don't think we will see FAD from EB1 at anything like this year's level again.

In addition, the present USCIS approach post Kazarian is controversial and AILA have pointed out that it flies in the face of other court decisions. At some point, I suspect it will be the subject of further litigation.

I agree that presently, some types of institutions that previously applied under EB1B will be hesitant to use EB2, since they don't have the experience at present. I think that will be temporary, because to retain these people, they will have to do so in the future. In the main though, it is easier to prove EB1B in an academic research setting, so the reductions in EB1B applications may simply not materialize.

[TeddyKoochu]

@leo / Q / Veni,

There is 1 segment of EB1 - A, artists, writers and a few others who would not be able to find direct employment with a US employer. These folks possibly cannot file in EB1-B and even EB2 so this segment will almost completely be eliminated by the Kazarian memo unless someone is really well acclaimed for example Sonu Nigam. I don't know how many cases these folks would be accounting for. Also denials are definitely on the rise but people would be hesitant to discuss or track them openly. There is no qualitative way to count or track the denials or those who cannot possibly apply in EB1-B or EB2. Many folks from India / China especially those with a Phd are applying for EB1-A simply because they are stuck in EB2 and getting the EB1 - I140 approved self filed can be more of a jackpot. EB1-A approvals are normally harder to come by when compared with EB1-B.

[TeddyKoochu]

snathan,

Probably the best thing is to read post #16 in this thread http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs

If EB2-ROW had demand in excess of their allocation, they would be "qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas", since Countries within it would not yet have reached their individual 7% limits.

Only when demand from such cases had been satisfied can the provisions of INA 202 (a)(5) come into play which allows visas to be allocated to Countries who have reached their own 7% limit.

It is only then that the provisions of INA 203(e), which stipulates that visas are awarded "to eligible immigrants in the order in which a petition in behalf of each such immigrant is filed with the Attorney General" come into play for China and India.

Until that point, China and India are not eligible to receive spare visas, so it would be the earliest PDs in the pool of ROW applicants.

Spec your explanation in the facts and data seems to be absolutely perfect to me. However for those who are not inclined to read the details the following simple one may suffice. If you like you can edit what I posted below and add it at the top of your post in facts and data.

Rule A - 7% Rule across EB, to classify as retrogressed it has to be EB + FB.
Rule B - Fall down.
EB2 - India gets spillover because EB2 ROW is current since Rule A is satisfied then Rule B can be applied. So the most important thing for Eb2 I/C is that EB2 ROW stays current.
EB3 ROW - Prior to AC 21 rule B was not being applied until rule A was being applied to all categories so EB3 ROW was getting the spillover. EB3 ROW is bleeding additional numbers because Mexico and Philippines are under utilizing EB1 and EB2 and they continue to use 6-7K visas per annum which are extracted from EB3 ROW.
EB3 - I / C Unfortunately because of process streamlining and clearing of labor and to a large extent I140 backlog there are huge reserves of EB3 ROW and EB2 I/C applications. Note that the spillover rule did not change anything for EB3-I whether it goes to EB2 I/C or EB3 ROW is more a choice of devil and deep sea.

[gcq]

.................................................. .................................................. ......
.................................................. .................................................. .
EB3 ROW - .................................................. ............................. EB3 ROW is bleeding additional numbers because Mexico and Philippines are under utilizing EB1 and EB2 and they continue to use 6-7K visas per annum which are extracted from EB3 ROW.

Teddy,
When EB Mexico and Philippines hasn't reached their country limit, can they even be considered a retrogressed category in visa bulletin ( listing them under a separate column for EB3) ? Shouldn't they be listed as part of ROW ?

Also there could be many other ROW countries under utilizing EB1/EB2 visa numbers. The only difference being Mexico and Philippines has older PD.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
When EB Mexico and Philippines hasn't reached their country limit, can they even be considered a retrogressed category in visa bulletin ( listing them under a separate column for EB3) ? Shouldn't they be listed as part of ROW ?

Also there could be many other ROW countries under utilizing EB1/EB2 visa numbers. The only difference being Mexico and Philippines has older PD.

The classification for retrogressed is based on EB + FB so Mexico and Philippines are classified as retrogressed. However the 7% rule is also within EB so it allows them to extract much higher numbers at the expense of EB3 ROW. Philippines has already caught up with ROW and Mexico is expected to be there soon. Even after catch up these countries will extract more because their demand under EB3 ROW is higher.

[qesehmk]

That's because they do fulfil their 7% quota when looked across EB+FB


Teddy,
When EB Mexico and Philippines hasn't reached their country limit, can they even be considered a retrogressed category in visa bulletin ( listing them under a separate column for EB3) ? Shouldn't they be listed as part of ROW ?

Also there could be many other ROW countries under utilizing EB1/EB2 visa numbers. The only difference being Mexico and Philippines has older PD.

[qblogfan]

thanks for your hard work and charity donations. you are doing the right thing.


Friends, we made yet another small donation from our advertisement revenues. Thanks to you all .... whatever meagre revenues we have, we will continue to make donations to good causes. So feel free to make suggestions.

You can find the list here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?90-List-of-Donations&goto=newpost

[Spectator]

Teddy,
When EB Mexico and Philippines hasn't reached their country limit, can they even be considered a retrogressed category in visa bulletin ( listing them under a separate column for EB3) ? Shouldn't they be listed as part of ROW ?

Also there could be many other ROW countries under utilizing EB1/EB2 visa numbers. The only difference being Mexico and Philippines has older PD.

A country can still have a Cut Off Date earlier than ROW if they can still reach the 7% limit (even the larger overall one) with cases with a PD earlier than the ROW Cut Off Date.

As an example, in FY2010 Mexico, before becoming Unavailable in the May 2010 VB, had a Cut Off Date of 01JUL02.

At that time ROW had a Cut Off Date of 01FEB03 and finally reached 15DEC04 in September 2010.

Despite that, EB3-M received 7,740 EB3 visas and 11,385 visas overall in EB versus the overall 7% limit for EB of 10,546 in FY2010.

Had Mexico shared the ROW Cut Off Date, who knows how many visas would have been allocated!

I suspect that EB3-M had an awful lot of 245(i) cases that were appearing out of the woodwork.

This year, the Cut Off Date for EB3-M has advanced rapidly to 01JUL05 whilst ROW now stands at 08OCT05.

It seems likely that the EB3-M Cut Off Date will be the same as ROW towards the end of the year.

Once Mexico has caught up ROW, their ability to "steal" visas from ROW should be diminished, since they will compete with ROW (and Philippines) on the same PD basis.

There are other Countries who do not reach the overall 7% limit, but they are constrained from receiving more by the 28.6% overall limit for EB3. They do not have anywhere from which to "steal" additional visa numbers.

Mexico and Philippines do so by reducing the ROW allocation within EB3 - quite unfairly in my opinion.


That's because they do fulfil their 7% quota when looked across EB+FB

The only Country in ROW that uses the entire overall EB 7% (and a bit more) is South Korea because of the FB interpretation (11,889 in FY2010).

No other Country comes even remotely close. Even Philippines (6,786 in FY2010), who share the same Cut Off Date as ROW do not even approach the overall EB 7% limit .

The constraint becomes the overall number of visas available to EB3 as a whole.

[TeddyKoochu]

thanks for your hard work and charity donations. you are doing the right thing.

Q, + 1 you are doing a great job by donating the proceeds to charity. The amount really does not matter it is the good intentions; I hope they bring good luck to all of us and especially to you in the next VB.

[kd2008]

Spec, Could you please give your thoughts on this?

I am imagining that EB2-C will go current sometime in FY 2012 or FY 2013 given their meager demand. This will alter the dynamics even further for EB2. I don't know how so. Mostly likely even less fall across for EB2-I.

[Spectator]

Spec, Could you please give your thoughts on this?

I am imagining that EB2-C will go current sometime in FY 2012 or FY 2013 given their meager demand. This will alter the dynamics even further for EB2. I don't know how so. Mostly likely even less fall across for EB2-I.
kd,

I am not sure how EB2-C could become Current ahead of EB2-I.

Compared to India, they do have much lower demand, but it is still in excess of the 7% limit.

So, whilst the initial allocation is in place, the EB2-C Cut Off Date would progress at a faster rate than EB2-I.

However, they would still need Spillover to become Current. Since the Cut Off Dates for IC have to be the same during Spillover season, they would be constrained from moving any faster than EB2-I and could not become Current. As the disparity in the first part of the year increases, EB2-C will receive less and less of the Spillover, since China PDs will be much later than India PDs.

Unless EB2-C demand becomes less than the 7% limit, China and India have to become Current together.

Am I missing something?

[vishnu]

Spec - you are right. The 7% is based on EB and FB categories, not purely based on EB demand.

[leo07]

@Veni, I see your point and agree, about I&C being the major consumers of EB1 and when they move to EB2, they stand farther in line to not impact the existing EB2 line. I did think that number would be insignificant initially, in the range of 2-2.5k max. I could very well be wrong. Thanks for your comments!

@Teddy & @Vishnu, My views over GC process and paths have changed many times over my journey and they are still evolving to say the least. So, in my view(current :)), if X number of people seek GC, irrespective of category/path/family/EB etc, then there WILL be X GC applications. The applications could end up in one lane or the other depending on their individual situations and whatever maximizes their chances. So, I still think that X remains constant. It can move to LHS or RHS of the equation depending on the prevailing Socio-economic & political factors.

@Spector,

Veni did bring out a good point, the more I think about it, the more I tend to agree, which I thought insignificant to begin with:) Do you have any numbers or hunch on EB1IC numbers that move into EB2?

Best!


@leo / Q / Veni,

There is 1 segment of EB1 - A, artists, writers and a few others who would not be able to find direct employment with a US employer. These folks possibly cannot file in EB1-B and even EB2 so this segment will almost completely be eliminated by the Kazarian memo unless someone is really well acclaimed for example Sonu Nigam. I don't know how many cases these folks would be accounting for. Also denials are definitely on the rise but people would be hesitant to discuss or track them openly. There is no qualitative way to count or track the denials or those who cannot possibly apply in EB1-B or EB2. Many folks from India / China especially those with a Phd are applying for EB1-A simply because they are stuck in EB2 and getting the EB1 - I140 approved self filed can be more of a jackpot. EB1-A approvals are normally harder to come by when compared with EB1-B.

[Spectator]

@Veni, I see your point and agree, about I&C being the major consumers of EB1 and when they move to EB2, they stand farther in line to not impact the existing EB2 line. I did think that number would be insignificant initially, in the range of 2-2.5k max. I could very well be wrong.

I & C only account for around 30% of EB1 approvals.

Whilst that is a lot for only two Countries, there are still 70% of approvals from other Countries. That limits the effect of later PDs for EB2-IC as 70% of the new EB2 cases will be Current (or at least ahead of EB2-IC for FD).

[gcq]

IMO EB3 Mexico stealing numbers from EB3 ROW is not only unfair, it is wrong as per INA.

If visa office is allocating additional number to EB3 Mexico because of its less consumption in EB1/EB2 mexico, these numbers has to come from EB1/EB2 mexico quota ( affecting EB2 IC spillover fest). This direct transfer is blocked by AC21 laws. Each subcategory has a limit in itself ( 7%). The only thing visa office can do is categorize EB3-Mexico as ROW. Everything else is illegal.

[kd2008]

kd,

I am not sure how EB2-C could become Current ahead of EB2-I.

Compared to India, they do have much lower demand, but it is still in excess of the 7% limit.

So, whilst the initial allocation is in place, the EB2-C Cut Off Date would progress at a faster rate than EB2-I.

However, they would still need Spillover to become Current. Since the Cut Off Dates for IC have to be the same during Spillover season, they would be constrained from moving any faster than EB2-I and could not become Current. As the disparity in the first part of the year increases, EB2-C will receive less and less of the Spillover, since China PDs will be much later than India PDs.

Unless EB2-C demand becomes less than the 7% limit, China and India have to become Current together.

Am I missing something?

In reference to the item I made in bold: Exactly, I agree that this will happen. But continue the thinking forward. The demand for EB2-C from Jan 08 onwards is dramatically different. 9K PERM approved for EB2&3-C vs 64k PERM approved for EB2&3-I. Now apply the usual 0.7 for EB2, 2.09 multiplier for I-485 count, 0.8 to account for denials, withdrawn, abandoned etc. So even if EB2-I gets all the spillover, the EB2-C dates could move much faster even when getting just 2,800 visa per year. Thereby going current. It may not happen in FY 2012, but can happen in FY 2013 or 2014 or later. But it will happen. Its something to consider, I think.

[qesehmk]

KD

Thank for your thoughts... Here is my perspective on EB2C.

By your own calculations EB2-C comes to about 9.6K 08 onwards. That's about sufficient to fulfil annual quota for EB2-C. Regardless ... to be honest EB2C is not a big factor anyway. EB2-Korea gets more visas than EB2C!!!

So whatever happens to EB2C is incosequential to EB2I. What really matters going forward is - EB1, EB2ROW and EB5. All those 3 things matter huge for EB2I. Another thing is ... EB3 - believe it or not. Thats because people might stop filing in EB3 altogether. that puts stress on EB2.

So the real solution to this whole thing is changing EB numbers or at least getting some temporary relief (visa recapture) or permanent relief ( counting only primary applicant).


In reference to the item I made in bold: Exactly, I agree that this will happen. But continue the thinking forward. The demand for EB2-C from Jan 08 onwards is dramatically different. 9K PERM approved for EB2&3-C vs 64k PERM approved for EB2&3-I. Now apply the usual 0.7 for EB2, 2.09 multiplier for I-485 count, 0.8 to account for denials, withdrawn, abandoned etc. So even if EB2-I gets all the spillover, the EB2-C dates could move much faster even when getting just 2,800 visa per year. Thereby going current. It may not happen in FY 2012, but can happen in FY 2013 or 2014 or later. But it will happen. Its something to consider, I think.

[kd2008]

Q, thank you for your insight. From what you explained it follows that if only one country is backlogged major way in EB2 then the advocating for any relief sounds hollow. No politician is ever going to buy it. So it makes it increasingly important to get a fix before EB2-C goes current. My 2-cents.

[qblogfan]

Q, I have a quick question. I noticed South Korea got around 5000 EB2 annually in the past several years. Why didn't they get retrogressed? South Koreans never had to wait for a long time for GC. Most of them get EB2 GC in 1 or 2 years. They exceeded EB2 annual quota every year.


KD

Thank for your thoughts... Here is my perspective on EB2C.

By your own calculations EB2-C comes to about 9.6K 08 onwards. That's about sufficient to fulfil annual quota for EB2-C. Regardless ... to be honest EB2C is not a big factor anyway. EB2-Korea gets more visas than EB2C!!!

So whatever happens to EB2C is incosequential to EB2I. What really matters going forward is - EB1, EB2ROW and EB5. All those 3 things matter huge for EB2I. Another thing is ... EB3 - believe it or not. Thats because people might stop filing in EB3 altogether. that puts stress on EB2.

So the real solution to this whole thing is changing EB numbers or at least getting some temporary relief (visa recapture) or permanent relief ( counting only primary applicant).

[qesehmk]

Don't forget EB3! Most of them are backlogged and retrogressed.


Q, thank you for your insight. From what you explained it follows that if only one country is backlogged major way in EB2 then the advocating for any relief sounds hollow. No politician is ever going to buy it. So it makes it increasingly important to get a fix before EB2-C goes current. My 2-cents.

Spec probably has addressed this very eloquently somewhere else. Basically the answer is that DoS looks across EB & FB for 7%. Since S Korea has very little FB demand they are given upto 7% (of EB+FB) in EB.

Yet another example of how laws are interpreted to meet policy objectives.



Q, I have a quick question. I noticed South Korea got around 5000 EB2 annually in the past several years. Why didn't they get retrogressed? South Koreans never had to wait for a long time for GC. Most of them get EB2 GC in 1 or 2 years. They exceeded EB2 annual quota every year.

[kd2008]

Yes Q, EB3 is backlogged. so what? If only one category is truly backlogged in terms of multiple countries retrogressed it makes the advocacy push even harder. Moreover, EB3 folks have been traditionally very unenthusiastic about advocacy. It's sad but true. So the whole thing gets doomed. Do you see what I am saying?

[qesehmk]

You may be right. Frankly I only meant to say that EB2-C being current is not a big factor for EB2I movement which is driven by EB1, EB5, EB2ROW & EB3 (ironically!). Do not know much about advocacy. So I will take others lead in learning about those things :) and restrict myself to predictions.


Yes Q, EB3 is backlogged. so what? If only one category is truly backlogged in terms of multiple countries retrogressed it makes the advocacy push even harder. Moreover, EB3 folks have been traditionally very unenthusiastic about advocacy. It's sad but true. So the whole thing gets doomed. Do you see what I am saying?

[kd2008]

Yeah I agree with you. I will keep following you guys as you have been so reliable.

[bieber]

Q

based on the recent developments (last 5 pages of this thread), would you mind projecting rough SOFAD range for fy 2012, I know you want to see Oct inventory and date movement in next 2 bulletins but i'm just anxious :)

[qesehmk]

Not many developments really. We continue to see total SOFAD of about 31-37K+5.6K = 36-43K total SOFAD suffient to clear EB2 through Jun (low end)-Aug 2011(w spillover to EB3).

Will update the trackitt based projections and header of this thread at teh end of this month.


Q

based on the recent developments (last 5 pages of this thread), would you mind projecting rough SOFAD range for fy 2012, I know you want to see Oct inventory and date movement in next 2 bulletins but i'm just anxious :)

[Spectator]

Q, I have a quick question. I noticed South Korea got around 5000 EB2 annually in the past several years. Why didn't they get retrogressed? South Koreans never had to wait for a long time for GC. Most of them get EB2 GC in 1 or 2 years. They exceeded EB2 annual quota every year.

qblogfan,

See post #8 here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs for an explanation.

[Spectator]

IMO EB3 Mexico stealing numbers from EB3 ROW is not only unfair, it is wrong as per INA.

If visa office is allocating additional number to EB3 Mexico because of its less consumption in EB1/EB2 mexico, these numbers has to come from EB1/EB2 mexico quota ( affecting EB2 IC spillover fest). This direct transfer is blocked by AC21 laws. Each subcategory has a limit in itself ( 7%). The only thing visa office can do is categorize EB3-Mexico as ROW. Everything else is illegal.

gcq,

I totally agree with you.

Using real visa numbers, it shouldn't be possible for the reasons you have outlined.

CO seems to use virtual numbers, which means the under-use by M-P is given to both EB2-IC and EB3-MP at the expense of EB3-ROW.

I agree it is illegal under the INA.

Similarly, if SK are allowed to use unused FB visas, the FB allocation should be reduced accordingly and added to SK's EB allocation.

[qblogfan]

Thank you for your directions. It makes sense now.


qblogfan,

See post #8 here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?6-FAQs for an explanation.

[qblogfan]

I agree. CO is not very fair.



gcq,

I totally agree with you.

Using real visa numbers, it shouldn't be possible for the reasons you have outlined.

CO seems to use virtual numbers, which means the under-use by M-P is given to both EB2-IC and EB3-MP at the expense of EB3-ROW.

I agree it is illegal under the INA.

Similarly, if SK are allowed to use unused FB visas, the FB allocation should be reduced accordingly and added to SK's EB allocation.

[qesehmk]

Kanmani Thanks.

Bieber, I am sorry, I wasn't careful enough to read your question.

Simply based on what I have heard and read (and without doing any calculations) I would suggest following approach.

This year SOFAD = 40K approx - of which probably 20K is due to backlogged EB1 / EB2ROW ( I could be wildly off here. And that's why wanted to wait till Oct inventory is out).

Next year there are two drastically different scenarios depending on whether USCIS sticks to Kazarian memo's current interpretation OR they change their tune.

Scenario 1 - Interpretation is eased out and normalcy is restored to EB1.

In this case, I would imagine EB1 to resume their usual run rate of 40K per year. Plus they are going to have 20K backlog. So EB1 demand will be approx 60K full year. Which means we should not expect any SOFAD from EB5 or EB1.

That only leaves us with EB2ROW. Depending on whether EB2ROW will have any unprocessed applications at the end of this year and assuming EB2ROW will come in at teh same run rate in 2012 as 2011, we can expect probably 2-8K from EB2ROW. That means total SOFAD will be between 8-14K. It means the dates will move around Dec 2007 at the end of Sep 2012.

Scenarios 2 - Kazarian memo interpretation stays same in 2012
In this case EB1 will come in at 20K demand in 2012 + about 5-10K backlog from 2011. That means total SOFAD for EB2IC = 5-10K FD from EB1 + all 5-8K from EB5 + 2-8K from EB2ROW + 5.6K = 18K - 32K

In this case dates will move to about Q3 of 2008.

p.s. - I am really very hesitant to predict 2012.. but since you asked I have penned it down. Please understand these are really very rough estimates.



HI Q

Bieber is looking for FY 2012 SOFAD if I am understanding right , you have given 2011 calculations .

[bieber]

Q

thanks for doing that, I understand you want to see more information to draw the conclusions

Kanmani, thanks for pointing out that it's fy 2012 :)

[tanu_75]

I was going through the Kazarian memo, but it does not refer to EB-1C, i.e MNC managers, right? (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Interim%20Guidance%20for%20Comment/Kazarian%20Guidance%20AD10-41.pdf) In EB-1 quota, it seems that Eb-1C has the highest percentage of applicants (from Trackitt).

If I look at Trackitt, EB1 trend appears steady for the past 2 years as far as demand, but wait times sure have gone up. So yes, unless denial percentage goes up (which it could but Trackitt doesn't show it now), I am inclined to agree that Eb1 spillover could be lesser from next year.


Kanmani Thanks.

Bieber, I am sorry, I wasn't careful enough to read your question.

Simply based on what I have heard and read (and without doing any calculations) I would suggest following approach.

This year SOFAD = 40K approx - of which probably 20K is due to backlogged EB1 / EB2ROW ( I could be wildly off here. And that's why wanted to wait till Oct inventory is out).

Next year there are two drastically different scenarios depending on whether USCIS sticks to Kazarian memo's current interpretation OR they change their tune.

Scenario 1 - Interpretation is eased out and normalcy is restored to EB1.

In this case, I would imagine EB1 to resume their usual run rate of 40K per year. Plus they are going to have 20K backlog. So EB1 demand will be approx 60K full year. Which means we should not expect any SOFAD from EB5 or EB1.

That only leaves us with EB2ROW. Depending on whether EB2ROW will have any unprocessed applications at the end of this year and assuming EB2ROW will come in at teh same run rate in 2012 as 2011, we can expect probably 2-8K from EB2ROW. That means total SOFAD will be between 8-14K. It means the dates will move around Dec 2007 at the end of Sep 2012.

Scenarios 2 - Kazarian memo interpretation stays same in 2012
In this case EB1 will come in at 20K demand in 2012 + about 5-10K backlog from 2011. That means total SOFAD for EB2IC = 5-10K FD from EB1 + all 5-8K from EB5 + 2-8K from EB2ROW + 5.6K = 18K - 32K

In this case dates will move to about Q3 of 2008.

p.s. - I am really very hesitant to predict 2012.. but since you asked I have penned it down. Please understand these are really very rough estimates.

[pch053]

Scenario 1 - Interpretation is eased out and normalcy is restored to EB1.

In this case, I would imagine EB1 to resume their usual run rate of 40K per year. Plus they are going to have 20K backlog. So EB1 demand will be approx 60K full year. Which means we should not expect any SOFAD from EB5 or EB1.

That only leaves us with EB2ROW. Depending on whether EB2ROW will have any unprocessed applications at the end of this year and assuming EB2ROW will come in at teh same run rate in 2012 as 2011, we can expect probably 2-8K from EB2ROW. That means total SOFAD will be between 8-14K. It means the dates will move around Dec 2007 at the end of Sep 2012.

Scenarios 2 - Kazarian memo interpretation stays same in 2012
In this case EB1 will come in at 20K demand in 2012 + about 5-10K backlog from 2011. That means total SOFAD for EB2IC = 5-10K FD from EB1 + all 5-8K from EB5 + 2-8K from EB2ROW + 5.6K = 18K - 32K

In this case dates will move to about Q3 of 2008.

p.s. - I am really very hesitant to predict 2012.. but since you asked I have penned it down. Please understand these are really very rough estimates.

If Scenario I happens, then EB1 might be retrogressed for countries using more than 2.8K per year like India, right? If we consider the total EB1 demand to be 60K (40K + 20K backlog) and the spillover available from EB5 to be around 5K - 8K we will still have an additional demand of 12K - 15K EB1 visas. Am I correct in my understanding here?

[qesehmk]

yes you are. Mind you this is truly the WORST case scenario.


If Scenario I happens, then EB1 might be retrogressed for countries using more than 2.8K per year like India, right? If we consider the total EB1 demand to be 60K (40K + 20K backlog) and the spillover available from EB5 to be around 5K - 8K we will still have an additional demand of 12K - 15K EB1 visas. Am I correct in my understanding here?

[veni001]

If Scenario I happens, then EB1 might be retrogressed for countries using more than 2.8K per year like India, right? If we consider the total EB1 demand to be 60K (40K + 20K backlog) and the spillover available from EB5 to be around 5K - 8K we will still have an additional demand of 12K - 15K EB1 visas. Am I correct in my understanding here?

pch053,
Only if the documentarily qualified EB1 demand is more than the available visas for that Quarter/FY!

IMHO, estimated 40k EB1 regular demand will not show-up in the first day/month of FY.

[gcwait2007]

I was going through the Kazarian memo, but it does not refer to EB-1C, i.e MNC managers, right? (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Interim%20Guidance%20for%20Comment/Kazarian%20Guidance%20AD10-41.pdf) In EB-1 quota, it seems that Eb-1C has the highest percentage of applicants (from Trackitt).

If I look at Trackitt, EB1 trend appears steady for the past 2 years as far as demand, but wait times sure have gone up. So yes, unless denial percentage goes up (which it could but Trackitt doesn't show it now), I am inclined to agree that Eb1 spillover could be lesser from next year.

Most International managers make it to EB1 quota by coming thru' L1A and L1B visas.

It has become almost near to impossible to get L1B visa approval these days. L1B is for specialized knowledge employees. Again in L1A, the organizational hierarchy and reporting structure are questioned. Why a company such as CTS needs 4000 International managers in USA while their total US based operations do not exceed 15K to 20K employees. There is suspicion going on for misuse of L1 by corporates.

All of us may be aware that Infosys is in news for misuse of B1 visas and as a result, DoS is seriously considering abolishing issuing B1 visas to corporate employees. Another point discussed was raising H1B to 100K+ and maximum validity period is 3 years, in the absence of B1 visa issued to corporate employees. Setting limit to L1 visas was also considered. Above topics were discussed in AILA meeting in May 2011 and many Immig attorneys circulated these points.

[qesehmk]

Yes. You are right.

However, trackitt continue to show 30% or so decline in EB1-C India approvals and almost 50% decline in overall EB1-C.


I was going through the Kazarian memo, but it does not refer to EB-1C, i.e MNC managers, right? (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Interim%20Guidance%20for%20Comment/Kazarian%20Guidance%20AD10-41.pdf) In EB-1 quota, it seems that Eb-1C has the highest percentage of applicants (from Trackitt).

If I look at Trackitt, EB1 trend appears steady for the past 2 years as far as demand, but wait times sure have gone up. So yes, unless denial percentage goes up (which it could but Trackitt doesn't show it now), I am inclined to agree that Eb1 spillover could be lesser from next year.


Most International managers make it to EB1 quota by coming thru' L1A and L1B visas.

It has become almost near to impossible to get L1B visa approval these days. L1B is for specialized knowledge employees. Again in L1A, the organizational hierarchy and reporting structure are questioned. Why a company such as CTS needs 4000 International managers in USA while their total US based operations do not exceed 15K to 20K employees. There is suspicion going on for misuse of L1 by corporates.

All of us may be aware that Infosys is in news for misuse of B1 visas and as a result, DoS is seriously considering abolishing issuing B1 visas to corporate employees. Another point discussed was raising H1B to 100K+ and maximum validity period is 3 years, in the absence of B1 visa issued to corporate employees. Setting limit to L1 visas was also considered. Above topics were discussed in AILA meeting in May 2011 and many Immig attorneys circulated these points.

Thanks for the info. This might explain why EB1-I shows decline when the business is still strong for them.

[samudrala]

Hi All,

I've been a silent spectator of this site for a while now. Thank you for all of your valueble analysis and Calculations. Escepcially, Q, Veni, Beiber, Spectator, pch053 for keeping the latest data together.

Well, I am checking my luck with my PD 06/06/2007 EB2 India in the comming 2 months?

Gurus - Any predictions?

Also, I am one of them who missed the July Fiasco in 2007? So, if my dates gets current sometime in next two months or any time, when can I expect my GC Approval?

Thanks,
-Sravan

[qesehmk]

Current guess - 6-9 months after you file 485.

Hi All,

I've been a silent spectator of this site for a while now. Thank you for all of your valueble analysis and Calculations. Escepcially, Q, Veni, Beiber, Spectator, pch053 for keeping the latest data together.

Well, I am checking my luck with my PD 06/06/2007 EB2 India in the comming 2 months?

Gurus - Any predictions?

Also, I am one of them who missed the July Fiasco in 2007? So, if my dates gets current sometime in next two months or any time, when can I expect my GC Approval?

Thanks,
-Sravan

[samudrala]

Thank you Q, Any predictions my date gets currents in Aug or Sept. VB?

Thanks,
-Sravan

[geterdone]

Nice blog- good to see people not fighting over trivial things.
got a question- Many of you might have come across another site where you can enter your chargeability, country and PD to determine the time to become current and get GC (i can post the link if you want, but i guess everyone knows which site i am talking about). When i entered my PD (Sept 2009) it shows 4 yrs to become current from now. i wanted to know everyone's opinion on this. Sorry if this has already been discussed before. i have not gone through all the 130+ pages.

[tanu_75]

Yes. You are right.

However, trackitt continue to show 30% or so decline in EB1-C India approvals and almost 50% decline in overall EB1-C.





Thanks for the info. This might explain why EB1-I shows decline when the business is still strong for them.

Thanks Q,gcwait.

Q, when you mention 50% decline you are talking about approvals, not filings correct? If so, yes it aligns with my earlier observation about increase in wait times and a pessimistic scenario for next year (assuming most of the filings get approved). If you are talking about filings then it's good news but I didn't notice that.

[qesehmk]

Sorry. But you need to spend some time reading the thread. Its impossible to answer all individual questions,


Thank you Q, Any predictions my date gets currents in Aug or Sept. VB?

Thanks,
-Sravan

[geterdone]

Is there any hope with this?
H.R.2161 - Immigration Driving Entrepreneurship in America Act of 2011
or is it like other bills that just die?

[grnwtg]

Nice blog- good to see people not fighting over trivial things.
got a question- Many of you might have come across another site where you can enter your chargeability, country and PD to determine the time to become current and get GC (i can post the link if you want, but i guess everyone knows which site i am talking about). When i entered my PD (Sept 2009) it shows 4 yrs to become current from now. i wanted to know everyone's opinion on this. Sorry if this has already been discussed before. i have not gone through all the 130+ pages.

As it is discussed in this thread, i thought of replying what i have read through various posts here. Thumb rule for GC is 4-5 yrs from Labor Date. Again there are several factors involved into this such as spill over numbers eb4,eb5,eb2 row, Family visa spill over and current strict rules for EB1
There might be 3 scenarios for your date
1) If Luck favors, dos/uscis might make dates current ( optimism level -high), you can get your EAD, and GC might take another 2-3 yrs.
2) You get to file 485 by next July/August bulletin and expect GC again another 2-3 yrs ( optimism level -Medium)
3) You get to file 485 by 2013 June/July/August bulletin and expect GC again another 1-2 yrs from then ( optimism level -Low)

I personally think, by end of next year you will definetly have your EAD.
If we do not get enough spill over next 2 years then the other website you are talking might become truth ( probably it might take 3 more years)

Anyone please correct me if i am wrong.

[veni001]

Thanks Q,gcwait.

Q, when you mention 50% decline you are talking about approvals, not filings correct? If so, yes it aligns with my earlier observation about increase in wait times and a pessimistic scenario for next year (assuming most of the filings get approved). If you are talking about filings then it's good news but I didn't notice that.

tanu_75,
It's both, Please check i140 data link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI) for receipts.

[ssvp22]

From what i have read, there are no plans for immigration related bills until after presidential election in end of 2012. Even after that, democrats(if they win) might pick up the cause, but there is no guarantee if any bill will ever get passed. In other words, if you are planning to move back to India 'cause your priority date is in 2010 or 2011, you should factor in 4 years of 0 career growth in US.


Is there any hope with this?
H.R.2161 - Immigration Driving Entrepreneurship in America Act of 2011
or is it like other bills that just die?

[pch053]

I think you summarized pretty well. There are several uncertainties for predicting 2009 time frame which will be take at least a few years for adjudication. To split up the situation into two parts:
i) When 2009 will be current so that one can file I485: this depends on how USCIS moves the dates forward to take in new applications or create a buffer of applications. Since there hasn't been any precedence of this before, it makes it even harder to guess how USCIS will act on this.
ii) When 2009 PD will be approved: this will depend a lot on spillovers for the coming years; people are predicting that there will be fewer spillovers in coming years (see some of the earlier posts in this thread) but again, nothing is clear yet. One can see the # of PERM applications submitted in the 'FACTS' section and that might give an idea on how many EB2-I applications might be prior to a 2009 date.

So, to sum up, I don't have any new conclusion. There are too many unknowns at this point of time to predict anything as far as 2009. As of now, I will stick to 4 - 5 years thumb rule from PD as the approx time line for getting GC approval.

[tanu_75]

tanu_75,
It's both, Please check i140 data link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?49-140-Data-and-Calculations-CREDIT-to-VENI) for receipts.

I'm probably late to the party, but that's pretty cool data veni. Can you clarify on this though :

(FY 2009 EB1485 approvals = 40,979, translates to 17,075 EB1-i140)
(FY 2010 EB1485 approvals = 41,026, translates to 17,094 EB1-i140)


Are you saying the above is the quota for the year or are you saying these were actual approvals? If these are actual approvals, then why is there diff of 10k between the 17k (from 485) and the 27k that we get from the 140 calculation. Thanks.

[veni001]

I'm probably late to the party, but that's pretty cool data veni. Can you clarify on this though :

(FY 2009 EB1485 approvals = 40,979, translates to 17,075 EB1-i140)
(FY 2010 EB1485 approvals = 41,026, translates to 17,094 EB1-i140)


Are you saying the above is the quota for the year or are you saying these were actual approvals? If these are actual approvals, then why is there diff of 10k between the 17k (from 485) and the 27k that we get from the 140 calculation. Thanks.

tanu_75,
Those i140 numbers are estimated based on approved i485 from each year (2009&2010). Check the 140 to 485 link (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-%28From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics%29) for ratio used.

As you can see from the data EB1 i140 receipts in 2009 are higher compared to 2010 but 485 approvals are almost the same in both years, which means more than half of FY2010 EB1-485approvals are actually from 2009 filers.

[nishant2200]

I came across this:
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31333641.html

Most of the stuff in chinese, search for a post by rocketsfan which contains "My dream is to have a green card and then I can visit my parents in every
spring festival" and read that. Very touching.

Let me know if I should not post links to this or other websites like this. Apologize if I did wrong, you can delete my post or ask me to edit and remove :)

[qesehmk]

Nishant

No worries.... Thanks for posting.

I agree with this person. I too have missed every single Diwali and Every single Ganesh Festival for over a decade now. What he has written certainly resonates with a lot of us!

p.s. reproducing the content from "Rocketsfan" who is a contributor on our forum too. But I will not disclose :)



Written by Rocketsfan from Mittbbs.com

My dream is to have a green card and then I can visit my parents in every
spring festival. This is my 9th year in USA. I only spent one spring
festival with my parents in the past nine years. My major is sensitive and
they checked me every time. I have to take at least 1 month vacation every
time and it caused many troubles. I feel so frustrated about this.

In this spring festival, I watched some news that some Chinese migrant
workers used their whole year's saving to go back home to visit their family
in the country side. Some migrant workers couldn't afford a train ticket and they rided bikes from Guangdong to Hunan to see their family. I was so moved by this news. I am making more money than Chinese migrant workers, but I can't spend spring festival with my family.

I don't want to make more money using green card, but I really want to spend
every spring festival with my parents from 2012. Life is not unlimited and
we need to grasp every opportunity to spend more time with family.

I sincerely wish every Chinese folk here can get GC and have great family
reunions using GC. The love from family and friends is the greatest thing in the world.


I came across this:
http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31333641.html

Most of the stuff in chinese, search for a post by rocketsfan which contains "My dream is to have a green card and then I can visit my parents in every
spring festival" and read that. Very touching.

Let me know if I should not post links to this or other websites like this. Apologize if I did wrong, you can delete my post or ask me to edit and remove :)

[soggadu]

Nishant

No worries.... Thanks for posting.

I agree with this person. I too have missed every single Diwali and Every single Ganesh Festival for over a decade now. What he has written certainly resonates with a lot of us!

p.s. reproducing the content from "Rocketsfan" who is a contributor on our forum too. But I will not disclose :)


I totally agree with an emotionally heavy heart... Waiting to get my EAD/GC so that i can visit my folks and spend some time... recently my collegue asked me what i am going to do once i get GC whether i am going to buy a house or look for a better paid job... my answer was to go to india for 3 months irrespective if i will have a job when i get back or not... Money is not worth what i am missing but immigration status is as it has effect on my family in the long run... anyway... Lets hope for the best...

[nishant2200]

Thanks Q, Sogaddu.

My parents visitor visa rejected two times. Now they have given hope and I feel even afraid to ask them to try again. At this age, they have to travel two times, once to vfs office, and once to consulate. Using rickshaws, trains, buses, in unknown cities.

My biggest dream is that after getting GC, become Citizen asap in 5 years later, and then sponsor their GC so that they can come see their only son, their only child, his wife and grand-daughter, whom they will not see growing up, their home, at least once in their life. I know they are not going to stay here forever. They never had a car, at least once in life, they can travel in their son's, their own, car.

[makmohan]

I too have missed every single Diwali and Every single Ganesh Festival for over a decade now.

I too have missed Diwali and more importantly Ganesh Festival for last 9 years now! Really missing it to-date.

- makmohan

[qesehmk]

Amen! That my dream too. I hope I gather the courage to do so. I am a travel freak. Have shows almost all US to my kids who are in their single digits yet. I hope I can show them half of India in next 5 years (and that too by train!).



I totally agree wit an emotionally heavy heart... Waiting to get my EAD/GC so that i can visit my folks and spend some time... recently my collegue asked me what i am going to do once i get GC whether i am going to buy a house or look for a better paid job... my answer was to go to india for 3 months irrespective if i will have a job when i get back or not... Money is not worth what i am missing but immigration status is as it has effect on my family in the long run... anyway... Lets hope for the best...

Thats very touching Nishant. I hope your wish is fulfilled ASAP and hope your parents remain healthy enough to enjoy US travel. That's a drawback I have seen with my own parents and friends' parents. As they become old they simply enjoy your company and are quite reluctant to travel because of knee problems or other health issues.

Thanks Q, Sogaddu.

My parents visitor visa rejected two times. Now they have given hope and I feel even afraid to ask them to try again. At this age, they have to travel two times, once to vfs office, and once to consulate. Using rickshaws, trains, buses, in unknown cities.

My biggest dream is that after getting GC, become Citizen asap in 5 years later, and then sponsor their GC so that they can come see their only son, their only child, his wife and grand-daughter, whom they will not see growing up, their home, at least once in their life. I know they are not going to stay here forever. They never had a car, at least once in life, they can travel in their son's, their own, car.



Getting too much senti out here!! So long for now!

I too have missed Diwali and more importantly Ganesh Festival for last 9 years now! Really missing it to-date.

- makmohan

[veni001]

Folks,
Let's hope next Visa Bulliten will bring light to our colorful lives.

[victorian]

Sorry. But you need to spend some time reading the thread. Its impossible to answer all individual questions,

Hey, My PD is Mar 09, 2007. Any ideas when I will get current? :p :D

[suninphx]

Thanks Q, Sogaddu.

My parents visitor visa rejected two times. Now they have given hope and I feel even afraid to ask them to try again. At this age, they have to travel two times, once to vfs office, and once to consulate. Using rickshaws, trains, buses, in unknown cities.

My biggest dream is that after getting GC, become Citizen asap in 5 years later, and then sponsor their GC so that they can come see their only son, their only child, his wife and grand-daughter, whom they will not see growing up, their home, at least once in their life. I know they are not going to stay here forever. They never had a car, at least once in life, they can travel in their son's, their own, car.

Thats very touchy.
As for parent visa.... please keep trying and they will get visa surely one day. Many of my friends parents got visa in 3 even 4 attempts.

[veni001]

Hey, My PD is Mar 09, 2007. Any ideas when I will get current? :p :D

victorian,
Not for another 33 days!:)

[pch053]

Folks,
Let's hope next Visa Bulliten will bring light to our colorful lives.

Are we expecting the next VB on July 8th, i.e. Friday of next week? Maybe, we will have some input from Q's source 1 - 2 days prior to that.

[ssvp22]

Are we expecting the next VB on July 8th, i.e. Friday of next week? Maybe, we will have some input from Q's source 1 - 2 days prior to that.
Wow, didnt realize VB comes next Friday. Need to get 485 docs ready in case date gets current.

[gc_vbin]

Just read this on Ron Gotcher's site. This could be another reason for delay in I-140 approvals this year..

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-6-15/recent-trends-RFEs.html

[samudrala]

Hi,

My PD is 06/06/2007 EB2 INDIA. Any predictions, when I would be current?

[whereismygclost]

Since seniors have decided not to give individual predictions. Let me try here. For 6/06/2007 EB2 INDIA, based on my readings in this forum I would say with almost 95% certainty that you will be current in either next month's or the month later visa bulletin.
Good Luck!!

[samudrala]

Thank you whereismygclost, I wish your predictions comes true

[whereismygclost]

Hang in there my friend samudrala. Hope your long wait is going to get over soon!

[veni001]

Just read this on Ron Gotcher's site. This could be another reason for delay in I-140 approvals this year..

http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-6-15/recent-trends-RFEs.html

gc_vbin,
Good post, no wonder why i140 and EB1/EB2ROW pending inventory doubled in the last year.

Few bullets to note from the above news letter... (http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-6-15/recent-trends-RFEs.html)

"First, they now seem to be issuing RFEs on the "ability to pay" issue for every employer that has filed multiple I-140s in the past".
......
......
"Second, they are questioning the qualifications of any beneficiary who has a three year undergraduate degree. It doesn't matter that the employee may have a U.S. master's degree or even PhD, if he or she has a three year undergraduate degree, the USCIS is going to challenge the validity of all higher degrees for the same person".
.......
.......
"Third, the service centers have finally decided to try to apply the illegitimate "employer-employee" memo standards to I-140 petitions for consulting companies".
.......
.......

[pch053]

The second point surprises me. If the individual has a MS or Phd degree from a credible US university, then the university authorities must have found the credential of the individual to be equivalent to a Bachelors degree holder during the admission procedure; else, they wouldn't have admitted the individual in the first place. I don't see the point questioning the Bachelors degree at this point of time when the person has finished a Phd. I recently came across a thread in trackitt where a person with a Phd in some scientific discipline (I forgot the exact subject) and probably having a 3 year undergrad degree had his/her I140 denied.

[veni001]

The second point surprises me. If the individual has a MS or Phd degree from a credible US university, then the university authorities must have found the credential of the individual to be equivalent to a Bachelors degree holder during the admission procedure; else, they wouldn't have admitted the individual in the first place. I don't see the point questioning the Bachelors degree at this point of time when the person has finished a Phd. I recently came across a thread in trackitt where a person with a Phd in some scientific discipline (I forgot the exact subject) and probably having a 3 year undergrad degree had his/her I140 denied.

pch053,
Things are different form Federal to State, State to Local, within Federal Departments....etc. For example in certain cases even 4-yr degrees are required evaluation!
I am not sure the legality behind this new approach, but i think it is clear that USCIS is tightening all the screws.

But it is obvious now why we have seen very minimal porting demand compared to what we have been predicting here.

[kd2008]

The second point surprises me. If the individual has a MS or Phd degree from a credible US university, then the university authorities must have found the credential of the individual to be equivalent to a Bachelors degree holder during the admission procedure; else, they wouldn't have admitted the individual in the first place. I don't see the point questioning the Bachelors degree at this point of time when the person has finished a Phd. I recently came across a thread in trackitt where a person with a Phd in some scientific discipline (I forgot the exact subject) and probably having a 3 year undergrad degree had his/her I140 denied.

Job requirements, job requirements, job requirements! It does not matter how many degrees you have. It matters which one of the degrees you have satisfies the job requirements. If the job said BS+5yrs then having a PhD is not much of use if you cannot document you have that single-source 4 yr BS in first place.

[pch053]

The case from trackitt that I am mentioning didn't have the requirement of BS + 5 years requirement; it specifically wanted an advanced degree (MS and/or Phd) and the job is for a research scientist position. However, I should add though that I am not fully sure (and the post was not very clear either) on whether the 4 year degree was the only issue or whether it had other problems too.

[qesehmk]

gcq your anguish is understandable. But it would be quite a stretch to compare USCIS operations to gunda raj. They try to operate within a framework and there always is lattitude. Sending an RFE is within their rights. Denying it on flimsy grounds would be questionable but the act of sending RFE is hardly questionable.
Now a days USCIS is run by goonda raj. They come up with their own crazy rfes which does not have any legal basis. How is the underlying degree relevant when a US university has conferred MS on this candidate ?

[natvyas]

Now a days USCIS is run by goonda raj. They come up with their own crazy rfes which does not have any legal basis. How is the underlying degree relevant when a US university has conferred MS on this candidate ?

This would also mean somebody who has done 3 year degree won't be eligible for a post graduate degree in his life ( as per USCIS )

The point is that they are doing a thorough review at the I-140 stage and raising an RFE if they have an ioata of doubt when it comes to 3 yr degrees.

Bear in mind that in India if you have a diploma then BE is a 3 yrs program.

[gcq]

I agree they can send RFEs for relevant issues. They should. Now a days they are sending lot of crazy RFEs. If you noted recent AILA meeting with DHS, AILA brought up the point that USCIS was sending lot of template RFEs sometimes for the information lawyer has submitted already. Along with this 3 year degree rfes, employer-employee rfes also have no legal basis.

Coming to 3 year degree, congress instituted the EB immigration primarily for foreign graduates. US standards for a Bachelors degree is different from the standard being followed by many nations. Congress included the wording bachelors equivalent to accommodate that. Now USCIS says single source 4 year degree is the only bachelors equivalent. This is incorrect. It isn't listed anywhere in the law that bachelor's equivalent has to be a "4 year single source degree". That is USCIS own invention which is wrong.

[vishnu]

If this 'strict' regime becomes the norm, then EB1 and for that matter, EB2 approvals will continue to be on the 'low' side. So there will continue to be significant SOFAD and for that reason, there will be a greater incentive for them to pre-adjudicate applications to avoid wastage of visas. I think the likelihood of moving dates to 2008 and even beyond is significant.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. Good information.
I agree they can send RFEs for relevant issues. They should. Now a days they are sending lot of crazy RFEs. If you noted recent AILA meeting with DHS, AILA brought up the point that USCIS was sending lot of template RFEs sometimes for the information lawyer has submitted already. Along with this 3 year degree rfes, employer-employee rfes also have no legal basis.

Coming to 3 year degree, congress instituted the EB immigration primarily for foreign graduates. US standards for a Bachelors degree is different from the standard being followed by many nations. Congress included the wording bachelors equivalent to accommodate that. Now USCIS says single source 4 year degree is the only bachelors equivalent. This is incorrect. It isn't listed anywhere in the law that bachelor's equivalent has to be a "4 year single source degree". That is USCIS own invention which is wrong.

[grnwtg]

Wow, that is touching and I too have some feelings but i have brother and sister ( and their children) back home. Came to this country after fighting in each office i visited for not doing their work. My parents visa got rejected two times( 2nd time interviewer had rejection letter before my Dad gave his required documents and then he was almost pushed by a lady when he tried to ask reason), it was like monopoly in Consulate.
Its been 10 yrs in usa and Finally Got my new Home last week hoping that i will get GC in coming year.

Apology for deviating from main forums...Really Touched with Nishant's Post.

[donvar]

Now a days USCIS is run by goonda raj. They come up with their own crazy rfes which does not have any legal basis. How is the underlying degree relevant when a US university has conferred MS on this candidate ?

This would also mean somebody who has done 3 year degree won't be eligible for a post graduate degree in his life ( as per USCIS )

I don't think prerequisite for MS degree can be related with prerequiste for degree qualification for immigration.
But I understand they are tightening the screws. When you have so much fraud going ( CTS is misusing the GC process and just this year they have filed 482 EB1C applications, 15-20 times more than any other Indian IT consultancy (and nobody is asking how come they need so many international managers. The golden words said are that they have legal documents and we all know how difficult is to show someone in a manager role)

This was bound to happen, we (esp Indians) tend to ignore the fraud as long as we get our card in time , but then the rest of community suffers. Employer-Employee memo, denied H1B stamping etc are all the fruits of our indifference.

[neospeed]

http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35594

[veni001]

I agree they can send RFEs for relevant issues. They should. Now a days they are sending lot of crazy RFEs. If you noted recent AILA meeting with DHS, AILA brought up the point that USCIS was sending lot of template RFEs sometimes for the information lawyer has submitted already. Along with this 3 year degree rfes, employer-employee rfes also have no legal basis.

Coming to 3 year degree, congress instituted the EB immigration primarily for foreign graduates. US standards for a Bachelors degree is different from the standard being followed by many nations. Congress included the wording bachelors equivalent to accommodate that. Now USCIS says single source 4 year degree is the only bachelors equivalent. This is incorrect. It isn't listed anywhere in the law that bachelor's equivalent has to be a "4 year single source degree". That is USCIS own invention which is wrong.

gcq,
In almost all these cases PERM Labor is key, if the min job requirement is BS+5-yrs and the lawyer is trying to show BS equivalent there come the conflict.

[Spectator]

I agree that USCIS have "invented" their own definitions regarding equivalence to a US Baccalaureate.

In many ways, it not a "3 Year Degree" problem but maybe one of total years of education.

I would argue that the US system has to be a 4 year program simply because the education system turns out high school graduates with such poor skills that they need an additional year's worth of general education to attain the level required for a Bachelors Degree.

Virtually all of European education comes under the Bologna Accord (or Process or Declaration) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bologna_Process where Bachelors are 3 year degrees. That has always been the model for some European Countries such as the UK.

One has to assume that these degrees are accepted by USCIS (although I think most European Countries have a year extra Secondary Education before proceeding to University studies), since a 4 year Baccalaureate course is not available to most people in Europe.

The following links discuss the Bologna degree system and how it is accepted by the USA. Most are rather old and I suspect all Bologna Degrees are accepted these days (at least from the major European Countries).

http://www.wes.org/ewenr/04march/feature.htm
http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2006/11/06/bologna
http://www.wes.org/educators/pdf/BolognaPacket.pdf

Some interesting quotes from this document http://www.cgsnet.org/portals/0/pdf/mtg_am06scott.pdf


WHAT OTHERS ARE SAYING

•In the end you will all accept the Bologna degree.
Les Sims, former CGS/NSF Dean-in-Residence, former graduate dean, University of Iowa, May, 2005

•“Globalization is, and will continue to be, one of the salient features of higher education in the 21stCentury. Informed mutual recognition of higher education degrees is a corollary of globalization.”
Myron Thompson, Associate Provost and Executive Director,graduate school, University at Buffalo, SUNY, April, 2006

•“Within the US system a Bachelor is not a Bachelor, not even from the same institution, let alone from different types of institutions. Also within your system the answer to the problem lies in individual assessment….US institutions have always accepted British Bachelor graduates and can therefore not in principle deny continental Europeans the same treatment.”
Christian Bode, Secretary General of the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD), November, 2006

I think that the Indian Government could have been much more pro-active in tackling this issue (perhaps even by signing up to the Bologna Accord as Australia appears to have done - it is not an EU initiative).

[donvar]

Amen! That my dream too. I hope I gather the courage to do so. I am a travel freak. Have shows almost all US to my kids who are in their single digits yet. I hope I can show them half of India in next 5 years (and that too by train!).


Getting too much senti out here!! So long for now!

I also wanted to pent but then this couplet came out.

Zakhm kitne teri chahat ne diye hain mujhko, sochta hoon kahoon kisi se, magar Jane de. :-)

But this wait has done some irreversible damage.

[donvar]

Nishant

No worries.... Thanks for posting.

I agree with this person. I too have missed every single Diwali and Every single Ganesh Festival for over a decade now. What he has written certainly resonates with a lot of us!

p.s. reproducing the content from "Rocketsfan" who is a contributor on our forum too. But I will not disclose :)

I have a hunch, contributor's screen name has 8 letters.

[TeddyKoochu]

gc_vbin,
Good post, no wonder why i140 and EB1/EB2ROW pending inventory doubled in the last year.

Few bullets to note from the above news letter... (http://www.imminfo.com/News/Newsletter/2011-6-15/recent-trends-RFEs.html)

"First, they now seem to be issuing RFEs on the "ability to pay" issue for every employer that has filed multiple I-140s in the past".
......
......
"Second, they are questioning the qualifications of any beneficiary who has a three year undergraduate degree. It doesn't matter that the employee may have a U.S. master's degree or even PhD, if he or she has a three year undergraduate degree, the USCIS is going to challenge the validity of all higher degrees for the same person".
.......
.......
"Third, the service centers have finally decided to try to apply the illegitimate "employer-employee" memo standards to I-140 petitions for consulting companies".
.......
.......

Veni thanks for posting. I believe that 1 out of 3 such cases may eventually face a denial that is precisely the reason why we are seeing huge spillover this year. Also it is important for everyone who intends to change jobs to make note that even though in the past labor and 140 was approved it may not be the same again especially if you fall in any of the groups that you mentioned above. Many employers were pushing people who were about to complete 6 years to EB3 saying that its safer to get the extension also may not find it that easy. Also another thought I believe someone had posted that his colleagues got speedy approvals for 140, the straight cases are still being approved fast it is where they are issuing well researched RFE's are taking longer and many will see denials. With this said I believe even next year thee may not be that much of EB2 ROW and EB1 backlog to truly approve as is being projected in the worst case scenarios because denials will rise steeply, unfortunately no good way to calculate or quantify these.

[velugc]

my edu is 3 + 3... and 140 cleared... going though the post seems like there is more RFE & denials in 140 because of 3 + 3 edu... my question is once 140 is cleared would 3 + 3 edu cause any issues in 485? i hope there is no educational evaluation in 485... but just want to make sure...

[TeddyKoochu]

my edu is 3 + 3... and 140 cleared... going though the post seems like there is more RFE & denials in 140 because of 3 + 3 edu... my question is once 140 is cleared would 3 + 3 edu cause any issues in 485? i hope there is no educational evaluation in 485... but just want to make sure...

Normally for 485 they should not re-evaluate I140 I think otherwise if we apply all the guidelines that Veni (Ron newsletter) has posted more than 50% people are in trouble.
I believe you have an MCA what was the requirement in the labor was it Masters + X years of exp or bachelors + (X+5) years. I believe of it was the bachelors case your are absolutely safe. Typically B.Tech / BE and MCA are equivalent, I have read about some cases wherein the MCA was evaluated equal to MS from USA I don't think those cases can pass by now.

[qesehmk]

Spec, US high school graduates may be sub-par. But the graduate degree over here is quite competent. This is what Akio Morita (ex chief / founder Sony Corporation) said about US vs Japanese universities - It is very difficult to get into a Japanese University but very easy to get your degree. US universities on the other hand are very easy to be admitted into but then one has to earn the degree hard way. I think the same is true about US vs Indian universities.

US seems stupid sometimes but they need to keep things stupid because this country is quite egalitarian. Other countries resort to elitism in education (emphasis on IITs e.g. in India) whereas US goes by common sense and what works. And so while the degree may take a year more ... does produce a quite capable individual.

p.s. - But of course USCIS' basis for RFEs is probably quantitative rather than qualitative. Don/t deny that.



I agree that USCIS have "invented" their own definitions regarding equivalence to a US Baccalaureate.

In many ways, it not a "3 Year Degree" problem but maybe one of total years of education.

I would argue that the US system has to be a 4 year program simply because the education system turns out high school graduates with such poor skills that they need an additional year's worth of general education to attain the level required for a Bachelors Degree.

Virtually all of European education comes under the Bologna Accord (or Process or Declaration) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bologna_Process where Bachelors are 3 year degrees. That has always been the model for some European Countries such as the UK.

One has to assume that these degrees are accepted by USCIS (although I think most European Countries have a year extra Secondary Education before proceeding to University studies), since a 4 year Baccalaureate course is not available to most people in Europe.

The following links discuss the Bologna degree system and how it is accepted by the USA. Most are rather old and I suspect all Bologna Degrees are accepted these days (at least from the major European Countries).

http://www.wes.org/ewenr/04march/feature.htm
http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2006/11/06/bologna
http://www.wes.org/educators/pdf/BolognaPacket.pdf

Some interesting quotes from this document http://www.cgsnet.org/portals/0/pdf/mtg_am06scott.pdf



I think that the Indian Government could have been much more pro-active in tackling this issue (perhaps even by signing up to the Bologna Accord as Australia appears to have done - it is not an EU initiative).


my edu is 3 + 3... and 140 cleared... going though the post seems like there is more RFE & denials in 140 because of 3 + 3 edu... my question is once 140 is cleared would 3 + 3 edu cause any issues in 485? i hope there is no educational evaluation in 485... but just want to make sure...
I think they may look at it. But if you already filed 3-4 years back ... then you shouldnt be worried as this is a reasonably recent issues in last 1 year or so.



But this wait has done some irreversible damage.
Donbhai ...take care and take it easy. Since you engaged in some shayari ... i would recommend a sher from galib - "Na tha kuch to khuda tha. Na hota kuch to bhee khuda hota. Duboya mujhako honene. Na hota mein to kya hota.". Probably most of people after getting GC do think that it has caused some irreversible damage.

[Spectator]

Spec, US high school graduates may be sub-par. But the graduate degree over here is quite competent. This is what Akio Morita (ex chief / founder Sony Corporation) said about US vs Japanese universities - It is very difficult to get into a Japanese University but very easy to get your degree. US universities on the other hand are very easy to be admitted into but then one has to earn the degree hard way. I think the same is true about US vs Indian universities.

Q,

Sorry if you misunderstood - I totally agree. My comment was not about the value or quality of the US graduate degree.

I was pointing out that the US Baccalaureate needs to be 4 years to correct the potential deficiencies of those leaving high school.

My point was more towards total education needed to achieve a Bachelors degree in different Countries and the USCIS interpretation.

To graduate from College in US would be 10+2+4 = 16
To graduate from University in Europe would be 11+2+3 = 16
To graduate from University in India could be 10+2+3 = 15

So, I wonder if this is the real problem, not a 3 year degree per se, and that is why the AACRAO EDGE database that USCIS uses does not equate 3 year Indian Bachelors to a US Bachelors.

Just thinking out loud really and trying to understand the USCIS thought process.

I've never understood USCIS attitude to "single source" degrees and why a 1 year PG cannot be considered, as long as it is enhancing the education. It always seems a bit of a "not invented here" mentality.

What if there was a one year course prior to completing the 3 years Bachelors? That would make it 16 years total. I don't see how that is any different to completing 16 years in a slightly different manner, if that is what it takes.

Frankly, the educational achievement should be the determining factor, not how many years it took to achieve. Unfortunately, USCIS seem fixated on the latter and it can only really be changed by Congress informing them that it was not their intent. Fat chance of that happening!

Just venting!

[veni001]

Q,

Sorry if you misunderstood - I totally agree. My comment was not about the value or quality of the US graduate degree.

I was pointing out that the US Baccalaureate needs to be 4 years to correct the potential deficiencies of those leaving high school.

My point was more towards total education needed to achieve a Bachelors degree in different Countries and the USCIS interpretation.

To graduate from College in US would be 10+2+4 = 16
To graduate from University in Europe would be 11+2+3 = 16
To graduate from University in India could be 10+2+3 = 15

So, I wonder if this is the real problem, not a 3 year degree per se, and that is why the AACRAO EDGE database that USCIS uses does not equate 3 year Indian Bachelors to a US Bachelors.

Just thinking out loud really and trying to understand the USCIS thought process.

I've never understood USCIS attitude to "single source" degrees and why a 1 year PG cannot be considered, as long as it is enhancing the education. It always seems a bit of a "not invented here" mentality.

What if there was a one year course prior to completing the 3 years Bachelors? That would make it 16 years total. I don't see how that is any different to completing 16 years in a slightly different manner, if that is what it takes.

Frankly, the educational achievement should be the determining factor, not how many years it took to achieve. Unfortunately, USCIS seem fixated on the latter and it can only really be changed by Congress informing them that it was not their intent. Fat chance of that happening!

Just venting!

Spec,
You are correct, 10+2+3 is the main reason for USCIS questioning the validity.
Even to get admission into Graduate Program in accredited US schools 16 years of education is required. So 10+3+3 suffice that requirement and 10+2+3 need to enroll in pre-requisites courses to fulfill 16 year education requirement.

Most of the 10+2+3 cases tray to include non accredited certifications(Ex: NIIT,APTECH...etc) to fulfill 16 year education requirement, and that's where i believe USCIS raising red-flag!.

[nishant2200]

suninphx, grnwtg, and all, thanks.

I know I am not the only one or anything special, many have their own stories, reasons, and needs. I got sentimental. Since days, this is all I have been thinking about. Dreaming, wishing, justifying with my own analysis to myelf, self -talking, about date being current in next bulletin.

The discussion about educational equivalency. I think there are certain services which USCIS may provide.

1. Determine Educational Equivalency

2. Certified Translation of foreign documents

They can make a small sibling agency or institution to provide these services, and charge applicants for that, and earn revenue. And since it's their own agency, they can trust the evaluation.

I also am on same page as Q about bachelors education in US. Both India and US are vastly different countries, different demographics, different seeds of culture, and has led to quite different education systems. The number 1 above should resolve any problems for educational equivalency determination.

I have a 4 years engineering degree from India, and two masters degrees in engineering in US, wish they would put me in EB1.5 if there was such category :)

For the shape of dreams for all of you to come, this is my own poem, dedicated to all of you, your dreams, may you all get current!

Sapnon ka aakar
-------------------------

baitha tha kabhi, taaron ke neeche,
soch raha tha, lamhon ke kitne prakar,
kitni saari yaadein, kitne saare kaam,
itne saare sapne, kaise karun saakar

durr kahin brahmand mein, kisi aur prithvi par,
tim-timate honge sapne, jaise atma ke alankar,
aaj mein yahan hun, kal mei wahan hun,
bheegi si hai hawa, hai jane kis sparsh ka intezaar

zindagi ka maqsad, upparwale ki disha,
phir kahin se aayi, ek anhoni si pukar,
muskarahaton ko jeet, ho ja har khushi pe nishar,
apni hi kalam se bana, tere sapnon ka aakar...

[qesehmk]

Hey Spec

No need to be sorry. Its just discussion. You are right they are looking at single source 16 years!! The reason USCIS probably insists on single source is because they don't want to be in teh business to establish equivalence of different combinations of years spent in different schools/colleges.

But then I think that is exactly the reason why they should stop sending RFEs to people who already have MS in US where the US university accepted the undergrad requirements based on Indian degree! But as many of us feel, sometimes these RFEs appear quite driven by some underlying objective that USCIS or DoS are trying to drive. But hey if they clear the backlog through Aug 2007 this year ... we all will give them 2 thumbs up!


Q,

Sorry if you misunderstood - I totally agree. My comment was not about the value or quality of the US graduate degree.

I was pointing out that the US Baccalaureate needs to be 4 years to correct the potential deficiencies of those leaving high school.

My point was more towards total education needed to achieve a Bachelors degree in different Countries and the USCIS interpretation.

To graduate from College in US would be 10+2+4 = 16
To graduate from University in Europe would be 11+2+3 = 16
To graduate from University in India could be 10+2+3 = 15

So, I wonder if this is the real problem, not a 3 year degree per se, and that is why the AACRAO EDGE database that USCIS uses does not equate 3 year Indian Bachelors to a US Bachelors.

Just thinking out loud really and trying to understand the USCIS thought process.

I've never understood USCIS attitude to "single source" degrees and why a 1 year PG cannot be considered, as long as it is enhancing the education. It always seems a bit of a "not invented here" mentality.

What if there was a one year course prior to completing the 3 years Bachelors? That would make it 16 years total. I don't see how that is any different to completing 16 years in a slightly different manner, if that is what it takes.

Frankly, the educational achievement should be the determining factor, not how many years it took to achieve. Unfortunately, USCIS seem fixated on the latter and it can only really be changed by Congress informing them that it was not their intent. Fat chance of that happening!

Just venting!


Kya baat hai! Beautiful! If you are ok we will copy this to the poems section.


For the shape of dreams for all of you to come, this is my own poem, dedicated to all of you, your dreams, may you all get current!

Sapnon ka aakar
-------------------------

baitha tha kabhi, taaron ke neeche,
soch raha tha, lamhon ke kitne prakar,
kitni saari yaadein, kitne saare kaam,
itne saare sapne, kaise karun saakar

durr kahin brahmand mein, kisi aur prithvi par,
tim-timate honge sapne, jaise atma ke alankar,
aaj mein yahan hun, kal mei wahan hun,
bheegi si hai hawa, hai jane kis sparsh ka intezaar

zindagi ka maqsad, upparwale ki disha,
phir kahin se aayi, ek anhoni si pukar,
muskarahaton ko jeet, ho ja har khushi pe nishar,
apni hi kalam se bana, tere sapnon ka aakar...

[nishant2200]

Sure Q, please move

[Spectator]

But then I think that is exactly the reason why they should stop sending RFEs to people who already have MS in US where the US university accepted the undergrad requirements based on Indian degree!
Q,

I absolutely agree.

There is no basis in law for such an RFE. The law only requires an advanced degree granted by, or equivalent to one from, an accredited US Institution of Higher Education. There is no mention of the underlying degree.

If the advanced degree was granted by a US University, that should be the end of it.

I think Ron Gotcher is correct. If this trend persists, USCIS will eventually be taken to court over the issue and they will lose. Unfortunately, when challenged, USCIS always relent, so the case never gets that far and the practice can continue.

It appears to be a mean spirited attempt by USCIS to either delay the case or make it as painful, time consuming and expensive as possible for the applicant.

I hope the Ombudsman will mention it in his next report.

My last on the subject of education.

Feel free to move it to the existing thread on the subject http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?88-Educational-Qualifications-Discussion

[tnayar78]

Back to predictions:

Aug - Aug 1, 2007
Sep - Jul 15, 2008
Oct - Jul 15, 2008
Nov - Oct 8, 2007

[03May07]

I have a hunch, contributor's screen name has 8 letters.

I guess, I can guess..thanks for the clue;)

[nishant2200]

this comes quite close to mine.

Aug - 15 Aug 2007
Sep - 22 June 2008
Oct - 22 June 2008
Nov - 15 June 2007

Now to wait for July 8th. In fact will be browsing mumbai consulate website on the day before evening i.e. july 7th evening. Although I have a feeling it's going to be released first here on July 8th, just like last time. CO is "bossing" his way this time, seems, he has a particular agenda, and wants to go for it. I am not complaining :)


Back to predictions:

Aug - Aug 1, 2007
Sep - Jul 15, 2008
Oct - Jul 15, 2008
Nov - Oct 8, 2007

[sandeep11]

Well the interpretation by USCIS of their own procedural code is at fault here. Sometimes it leads us to believe that They are delibrately trying to be ignorant.

But I have seen some of my friends with 3 Yrs Bachelor's and 3 yr Masters getting RFE's and infact few them have their 1-2 yr Graduation from US (masters). Looking at some of their cases I was of the opinion that the Job Description that was initially posted led to some confusion with their I-140s. Some of them were posted as BA or Foreign Equivalent Degree plus 'n' yrs of experience or MS or Foreign Equivalent Degree plus 'n-1' yrs of experience.

This I guess kind of misleads USCIS to expect or look for 4 yrs (foriegn equivalent)degree when it comes to Bachelors ( friend with 4 yr engineering BE degree didn't have such RFE's). On the better side, in all these cases a proper evaluation of the Indian degrees stating that they are equivalent to the degrees in US was sufficient.

-Sandy.




Q,

I absolutely agree.

There is no basis in law for such an RFE. The law only requires an advanced degree granted by, or equivalent to one from, an accredited US Institution of Higher Education. There is no mention of the underlying degree.

If the advanced degree was granted by a US University, that should be the end of it.

I think Ron Gotcher is correct. If this trend persists, USCIS will eventually be taken to court over the issue and they will lose. Unfortunately, when challenged, USCIS always relent, so the case never gets that far and the practice can continue.

It appears to be a mean spirited attempt by USCIS to either delay the case or make it as painful, time consuming and expensive as possible for the applicant.

I hope the Ombudsman will mention it in his next report.

My last on the subject of education.

Feel free to move it to the existing thread on the subject http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?88-Educational-Qualifications-Discussion

[Osaka001]

Normally for 485 they should not re-evaluate I140 I think otherwise if we apply all the guidelines that Veni (Ron newsletter) has posted more than 50% people are in trouble.
I believe you have an MCA what was the requirement in the labor was it Masters + X years of exp or bachelors + (X+5) years. I believe of it was the bachelors case your are absolutely safe. Typically B.Tech / BE and MCA are equivalent, I have read about some cases wherein the MCA was evaluated equal to MS from USA I don't think those cases can pass by now.

My company applied I-140 for me in Feb'11, the job Req was Masters + 1yr exp, I got my I-140 cleared in a week (Applied in Premium). I have Bsc, MCA (3+3), edu eval states that MCA is equivalent to MS in US. If USCIS is not going with education evaluation, then how it is going to determine 1000 universities, 1000s of diplomas from all over the world. or Are they just focussing Indian diplomas.

[TeddyKoochu]

My company applied I-140 for me in Feb'11, the job Req was Masters + 1yr exp, I got my I-140 cleared in a week (Applied in Premium). I have Bsc, MCA (3+3), edu eval states that MCA is equivalent to MS in US. If USCIS is not going with education evaluation, then how it is going to determine 1000 universities, 1000s of diplomas from all over the world. or Are they just focussing Indian diplomas.

I completely agree with you that educational evaluation should be the basis because this process was designed to equivalence qualifications from the world over to a corresponding US degree. But with the additional scrutiny in place they can go to any extent, it is something like a fault finding mission if and only if nothing is found then only you are good. However if you have 5 years of experience you could have been safer with the bachelors + 5 rule, in India most companies consider BE/BTech similar to MCA, ME or MTech comes after both these degrees as a Masters, however this is open to wide interpretation. Personally I believe that as soon as its Indian + IT + Consulting the red flag gets raised it will be fair to say more than 50% folks on H1 including me fall in this bracket so every time it will be trial by fire be it H1 extn, labor, I140 or I485.

[skpanda]

folks... i know there has been discussions about processing times. TSC has a processing time of 7.1 months for I140. Just FYI, my I140 was approved in 4.5 months (Receipt date: 24 Jan 2011, Approval Date: 10 June 2011).

Looks like when they give a hard date on their website (at this point it is Sept 2010), that does not mean they are not looking at applications beyond that date.

[qesehmk]

That is true. It seems those processing times are only directional and unlike priority date they DO NOT indicate a cut off.


folks... i know there has been discussions about processing times. TSC has a processing time of 7.1 months for I140. Just FYI, my I140 was approved in 4.5 months (Receipt date: 24 Jan 2011, Approval Date: 10 June 2011).

Looks like when they give a hard date on their website (at this point it is Sept 2010), that does not mean they are not looking at applications beyond that date.

[haripathhi]

Teddy,

Just out of curiosity, is the I-485 applications for Indian + IT + Consulting apps being scrutinized that closely? I do know that they are scrutinizing for H1, H1 extn, labor, I140 but I am not so sure about that level of scrutiny for I-485 apps too. If that's true then what is the rejection level? Any idea?


I completely agree with you that educational evaluation should be the basis because this process was designed to equivalence qualifications from the world over to a corresponding US degree. But with the additional scrutiny in place they can go to any extent, it is something like a fault finding mission if and only if nothing is found then only you are good. However if you have 5 years of experience you could have been safer with the bachelors + 5 rule, in India most companies consider BE/BTech similar to MCA, ME or MTech comes after both these degrees as a Masters, however this is open to wide interpretation. Personally I believe that as soon as its Indian + IT + Consulting the red flag gets raised it will be fair to say more than 50% folks on H1 including me fall in this bracket so every time it will be trial by fire be it H1 extn, labor, I140 or I485.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

Just out of curiosity, is the I-485 applications for Indian + IT + Consulting apps being scrutinized that closely? I do know that they are scrutinizing for H1, H1 extn, labor, I140 but I am not so sure about that level of scrutiny for I-485 apps too. If that's true then what is the rejection level? Any idea?

Till now we have not heard about I485 cases because the Indian cases that they are approving are all pre-adjudicated but there are reports posted on this blog that they are doing it for I140. I believe if at all this happens they may just do it for new I485 cases but there are no reports to suggest that this is happening. Let’s hope for the best. I think not to discourage anybody who wants to change jobs but they should consider that they will have to go through labor and I140 again and it may not be the same this time with the additional scrutiny.

[gcseeker]

Teddy

I absolutely agree and you have given a very good advice.The process is tightening at various points and if anybody has an PD in late 2007 or early 2008 they probably would be better off waiting untill they get the I-485 +180 days to invoke portability to move rather than jump ship right now and go through the Labour and I-140 process.Rules have changed so much from Labours filed in 2006/2007 to 2011 and they are changing even more with all the memo's.

If scrutiny starts for post 485...people will have to be very careful to make sure the codes match along with job descriptions and titles .


Till now we have not heard about I485 cases because the Indian cases that they are approving are all pre-adjudicated but there are reports posted on this blog that they are doing it for I140. I believe if at all this happens they may just do it for new I485 cases but there are no reports to suggest that this is happening. Let’s hope for the best. I think not to discourage anybody who wants to change jobs but they should consider that they will have to go through labor and I140 again and it may not be the same this time with the additional scrutiny.

[ssvp22]

Till now we have not heard about I485 cases because the Indian cases that they are approving are all pre-adjudicated but there are reports posted on this blog that they are doing it for I140. I believe if at all this happens they may just do it for new I485 cases but there are no reports to suggest that this is happening. Let’s hope for the best. I think not to discourage anybody who wants to change jobs but they should consider that they will have to go through labor and I140 again and it may not be the same this time with the additional scrutiny.

485 is Adjustment of Status, which really means you have gone through all the checks and now converting over to a legal immigrant. If you have valid proof of work for your stay in US, tax returns, marriage certificate, birth certificate, and Medical exam, there is not much INS can do about it. If they can find a loophole in the law, the way they are doing with employer-employee relationship for contracting jobs, or proof of LCA posting on client side, it will be hard to block 485 approvals by law.

[qesehmk]

That's mostly right. But don't forget FBI background check and medical tests. That is part of 485 process.


485 is Adjustment of Status, which really means you have gone through all the checks and now converting over to a legal immigrant. If you have valid proof of work for your stay in US, tax returns, marriage certificate, birth certificate, and Medical exam, there is not much INS can do about it. If they can find a loophole in the law, the way they are doing with employer-employee relationship for contracting jobs, or proof of LCA posting on client side, it will be hard to block 485 approvals by law.

[pch053]

I was taking a peek at the regularly updated section for May and June EB2I approvals in trackitt. As of now, we have around 249 approvals for the month of June and 162 approvals for May. For both May and June, approvals have slowed down during the later half of the month. The PD movement during the May and June'11 visa bulletins have been 7 and 1/2 weeks and 15 weeks respectively. The trackitt approval ratio (249/162 = 1.53), seems to be a bit on the lower side as compared to the ratio of PD date movements (15 / 7.5 = 2). If most of the current PDs are getting approvals, then shouldn't the ratio of approvals be closer to the ratio of the PD movements (actually, it should be the # of cases that are getting current due to forward movement of PDs and I might have over-simplified this calculation). I wanted to add though that based on what I have seen amongst my colleagues and at websites like murthy.com, etc, USCIS is approving current PDs in large numbers. So, maybe this might not be of that concern at all!

[haripathhi]

Good point Pch! However, I guess that the approvals are snap-and-go for pre-adjudicated apps since most of their requirements are/were already met. If there is any concern then it'll be for the PWMB and post-Aug-2007 fiasco apps.


I was taking a peek at the regularly updated section for May and June EB2I approvals in trackitt. As of now, we have around 249 approvals for the month of June and 162 approvals for May. For both May and June, approvals have slowed down during the later half of the month. The PD movement during the May and June'11 visa bulletins have been 7 and 1/2 weeks and 15 weeks respectively. The trackitt approval ratio (249/162 = 1.53), seems to be a bit on the lower side as compared to the ratio of PD date movements (15 / 7.5 = 2). If most of the current PDs are getting approvals, then shouldn't the ratio of approvals be closer to the ratio of the PD movements (actually, it should be the # of cases that are getting current due to forward movement of PDs and I might have over-simplified this calculation). I wanted to add though that based on what I have seen amongst my colleagues and at websites like murthy.com, etc, USCIS is approving current PDs in large numbers. So, maybe this might not be of that concern at all!

[03May07]

folks... i know there has been discussions about processing times. TSC has a processing time of 7.1 months for I140. Just FYI, my I140 was approved in 4.5 months (Receipt date: 24 Jan 2011, Approval Date: 10 June 2011).

Looks like when they give a hard date on their website (at this point it is Sept 2010), that does not mean they are not looking at applications beyond that date.

Anyone got their H1B extension done recently? How long is it taking? Processing time at Vermont & California shows 2 months. Apologize for hijacking this thread.

As I am a PWMB, I'm readying my money this month for all the applications ie., (H1B extension - premium, EAD, AP, 485, medical etc) times 2 (have a h4 dependent).

[nishant2200]

Anyone got their H1B extension done recently? How long is it taking? Processing time at Vermont & California shows 2 months. Apologize for hijacking this thread.

As I am a PWMB, I'm readying my money this month for all the applications ie., (H1B extension - premium, EAD, AP, 485, medical etc) times 2 (have a h4 dependent).

I had applied for my second extension for H1. I got my three year extension in 1.5 months from California Service Center.

[waitingEB2]

My PD date is Dec 2007 EB2. I got I-140 approved in 2008. My salary was above prevailing wages (65K) from 2006-2008. But due to some economic and personal reasons in the last two years my salary was below prevailing wages (2009-35K and 2010-45K). This year (2011) it is now back upto the prevailing wages. Everything else is fine. Now what are my chances just because of salary reduction my I-485 getting rejected. I had leave of absence, should that be fine?? really nervous about this. any guidance would be highly appreciated.

[kpt112107]

I had applied for my second extension for H1. I got my three year extension in 1.5 months from California Service Center.

Going to apply this week in premium. I will update back soon in a week.

[kpt112107]

So.. Finally what is our forum prediction for EB2 in Aug & Sept bulletins??

[TeddyKoochu]

So.. Finally what is our forum prediction for EB2 in Aug & Sept bulletins??

You are correct, thanks for bringing on track. My prediction is Aug - 01-JUN-2007, Sep - 15-AUG-2007. Good luck to all.

[qesehmk]

That proves that preadjudicated cases can be assigned visas very quickly and there is absolutely no danger of wasting any visas.

approvals have slowed down during the later half of the month.


So.. Finally what is our forum prediction for EB2 in Aug & Sept bulletins??
The date movement in forthcoming bulletins is not just a matter of backlog reduction, now it will also be a function of intake of new applications. So the date movement could be as wild as totally being current between now and Novemeber. Or as muted as Jun 2007. Best probability being the dates will move through Aug 2007.

I am planning to update the trackitt predictions thread by tomorrow morning as Jun is coming to an end. So far the indications are that trackitt trend is holding quite well.

[veni001]

I was taking a peek at the regularly updated section for May and June EB2I approvals in trackitt. As of now, we have around 249 approvals for the month of June and 162 approvals for May. For both May and June, approvals have slowed down during the later half of the month. The PD movement during the May and June'11 visa bulletins have been 7 and 1/2 weeks and 15 weeks respectively. The trackitt approval ratio (249/162 = 1.53), seems to be a bit on the lower side as compared to the ratio of PD date movements (15 / 7.5 = 2). If most of the current PDs are getting approvals, then shouldn't the ratio of approvals be closer to the ratio of the PD movements (actually, it should be the # of cases that are getting current due to forward movement of PDs and I might have over-simplified this calculation). I wanted to add though that based on what I have seen amongst my colleagues and at websites like murthy.com, etc, USCIS is approving current PDs in large numbers. So, maybe this might not be of that concern at all!

pch053,
Did you check the volume of the cases reported for the 7 and 1/2 weeks Vs 15 weeks?
Approval % based on the volumes reported may give better picture.

[bieber]

I think aiming at H1b dependent companies (read it as desi consultancies) will target the maximum abuse in h1bs or 140s. I'm actually amazed with the clarity they are targeting.

if genuine cases are in the line, they are really approving at super speed.

[veni001]

My PD date is Dec 2007 EB2. I got I-140 approved in 2008. My salary was above prevailing wages (65K) from 2006-2008. But due to some economic and personal reasons in the last two years my salary was below prevailing wages (2009-35K and 2010-45K). This year (2011) it is now back upto the prevailing wages. Everything else is fine. Now what are my chances just because of salary reduction my I-485 getting rejected. I had leave of absence, should that be fine?? really nervous about this. any guidance would be highly appreciated.

waitingEB2,
What ever be the reason(s), your pay should be at least the wage promised on LCA filed along with your H1B until you receive you GC.
From the day of your GC approval your salary should be at least the prevailing wage promised on PERM labor.

[Spectator]

I was taking a peek at the regularly updated section for May and June EB2I approvals in trackitt. As of now, we have around 249 approvals for the month of June and 162 approvals for May. For both May and June, approvals have slowed down during the later half of the month. The PD movement during the May and June'11 visa bulletins have been 7 and 1/2 weeks and 15 weeks respectively. The trackitt approval ratio (249/162 = 1.53), seems to be a bit on the lower side as compared to the ratio of PD date movements (15 / 7.5 = 2). If most of the current PDs are getting approvals, then shouldn't the ratio of approvals be closer to the ratio of the PD movements (actually, it should be the # of cases that are getting current due to forward movement of PDs and I might have over-simplified this calculation). I wanted to add though that based on what I have seen amongst my colleagues and at websites like murthy.com, etc, USCIS is approving current PDs in large numbers. So, maybe this might not be of that concern at all!

Firstly, I am glad that at least one person follows the updates - it makes the effort worthwhile!

I had noticed that as well.

Using the USCIS Inventory, the number of cases is also c. 2:1 as well.

I would caution that it takes at least a week for the majority of people to update their cases, so it is possible we are only seeing 75% of the June cases at the moment.

In that case, 249 would become 332, or just over twice the May figure.

I think the number probably won't get that high, because there does seem to some real tailing off from the 20th onwards, but it will definitely rise from the current figure.

[ssvp22]

Q

Any chance your contact will get inside info for the next VB?

[neospeed]

Q

Any chance your contact will get inside info for the next VB?

Might be next week before the VB release?

[qesehmk]

Yes. I am quite positive.


Q

Any chance your contact will get inside info for the next VB?


Might be next week before the VB release?

[soggadu]

Firstly, I am glad that at least one person follows the updates - it makes the effort worthwhile!

I had noticed that as well.

Using the USCIS Inventory, the number of cases is also c. 2:1 as well.

I would caution that it takes at least a week for the majority of people to update their cases, so it is possible we are only seeing 75% of the June cases at the moment.

In that case, 249 would become 332, or just over twice the May figure.

I think the number probably won't get that high, because there does seem to some real tailing off from the 20th onwards, but it will definitely rise from the current figure.

Dr.S ... your hard work is not going un noticed... i have that page book marked and is the first thing i go thru in the morning... many people i believe are doing the same... but not being vocal about it... keep it going...

[nishant2200]

My PD date is Dec 2007 EB2. I got I-140 approved in 2008. My salary was above prevailing wages (65K) from 2006-2008. But due to some economic and personal reasons in the last two years my salary was below prevailing wages (2009-35K and 2010-45K). This year (2011) it is now back upto the prevailing wages. Everything else is fine. Now what are my chances just because of salary reduction my I-485 getting rejected. I had leave of absence, should that be fine?? really nervous about this. any guidance would be highly appreciated.

You are fine. The salary is to be paid when you get the actual green card in hand. So when you get green card, and your company changes I-9 to match actual status, they need to meet the prevailing wage needs.

The green card is for a future job offer, and that job becomes a bona-fide job when you get the green card.

[nishant2200]

I think aiming at H1b dependent companies (read it as desi consultancies) will target the maximum abuse in h1bs or 140s. I'm actually amazed with the clarity they are targeting.

if genuine cases are in the line, they are really approving at super speed.

H1B dependent applies to a lot of companies, not just consulting. For company with 50 employees or more, if 15% of their employees are H1, then they are called H1b dependent. I think one of the red flag might be the employer employee relationship. for an H1b dependent employer, he has to attest that he did not displace any US worker in similar job profession 90 days around the proposed employment date for the foreign worker, and additionally he has to do recruiting effort and maintain proof of that for providing if asked.

[veni001]

Firstly, I am glad that at least one person follows the updates - it makes the effort worthwhile!

I had noticed that as well.

Using the USCIS Inventory, the number of cases is also c. 2:1 as well.

I would caution that it takes at least a week for the majority of people to update their cases, so it is possible we are only seeing 75% of the June cases at the moment.

In that case, 249 would become 332, or just over twice the May figure.

I think the number probably won't get that high, because there does seem to some real tailing off from the 20th onwards, but it will definitely rise from the current figure.

Spec,
We all check it every day.

[bieber]

Spec

I check your update everyday

[Spectator]

Thanks guys for confirming that you do look at the post. That's very gratifying to hear.

When the June approvals appear to all be in (in a week to 10 days), I'll post the histograms for May and June at the bottom of the thread as a separate post. I think they show the picture much better than the figures alone.

[pch053]

Thanks, Spec for all this work. I think one of your observation that some of the cases (~25%) get reported in trackitt after a while will push the current ratio of June:May approvals from 1.53 to the vicinity of the expected ratio of 2.0.

[svbmanian]

My H1-B extension took a week in TSC . it was premium processing :-) around 1st week of may



Anyone got their H1B extension done recently? How long is it taking? Processing time at Vermont & California shows 2 months. Apologize for hijacking this thread.

As I am a PWMB, I'm readying my money this month for all the applications ie., (H1B extension - premium, EAD, AP, 485, medical etc) times 2 (have a h4 dependent).

[iamdeb]

That proves that preadjudicated cases can be assigned visas very quickly and there is absolutely no danger of wasting any visas.



The date movement in forthcoming bulletins is not just a matter of backlog reduction, now it will also be a function of intake of new applications. So the date movement could be as wild as totally being current between now and Novemeber. Or as muted as Jun 2007. Best probability being the dates will move through Aug 2007.

I am planning to update the trackitt predictions thread by tomorrow morning as Jun is coming to an end. So far the indications are that trackitt trend is holding quite well.

I am new to this forum.I thought all the movements could be by September as from October new fiscal year starts. Is there chances of movement in Oct and Nov 2011 too?

Deb

[veni001]

I am new to this forum.I thought all the movements could be by September as from October new fiscal year starts. Is there chances of movement in Oct and Nov 2011 too?

Deb

iamdeb,
Any movement(forward/backward) in October 2011 depends on where EB2IC cutoff date going to be in September 2011 Visa Bulletin.

As usual, let's hope next Visa Bulletin going to shed some light.

[veni001]

My PD date is Dec 2007 EB2. I got I-140 approved in 2008. My salary was above prevailing wages (65K) from 2006-2008. But due to some economic and personal reasons in the last two years my salary was below prevailing wages (2009-35K and 2010-45K). This year (2011) it is now back upto the prevailing wages. Everything else is fine. Now what are my chances just because of salary reduction my I-485 getting rejected. I had leave of absence, should that be fine?? really nervous about this. any guidance would be highly appreciated.


You are fine. The salary is to be paid when you get the actual green card in hand. So when you get green card, and your company changes I-9 to match actual status, they need to meet the prevailing wage needs.

The green card is for a future job offer, and that job becomes a bona-fide job when you get the green card.

nishant2200,
Irrespective of his/her GC, in 2008 & 2009 waitingEb2 salary(W-2 wages) must be at least the minimum wage promised on LCA filed along with H1B petition by his/her employer!
For USCIS to approve AOS one must prove that he/she maintained continuous legal status while in US.

[venkat]

So.. Finally what is our forum prediction for EB2 in Aug & Sept bulletins??

According to my friend's attorney regarding predictions on visa number movement, it seems he said it all depends to a great extent on things going on in Charley Oppenheim’s (CO) head rather than something that can be easily analyzed and predicted.

[qesehmk]

The movement in Oct-Nov this year - if any - will be purely to build USCIS pipeline and then retrogress.
Its possible they will make sufficient movement in August or September itself. Or its possible (although very little probability) that USCIS may not even cross Jun 2007 during this FY. If either of these two is true then USCIS will NOT need any movement in OCt-Nov.

We will know whether USCIS will need any movement in next 10 days. If August bulletin shows almost


I am new to this forum.I thought all the movements could be by September as from October new fiscal year starts. Is there chances of movement in Oct and Nov 2011 too?

Deb

[suninphx]

The movement in Oct-Nov this year - if any - will be purely to build USCIS pipeline and then retrogress.
Its possible they will make sufficient movement in August or September itself. Or its possible (although very little probability) that USCIS may not even cross Jun 2007 during this FY. If either of these two is true then USCIS will NOT need any movement in OCt-Nov.

We will know whether USCIS will need any movement in next 10 days. If August bulletin shows almost

If USCIS is really putting focused efforts towards eliminating EB2IC backlog (by delaying processing of other categories and thus making available max spill over possible to EB2IC etc) - then I have a feeling their line of thought could be to make it EB2IC current soon...(for few days)...no backlog gives them solid technical reason...what say guys?

[Spectator]

If USCIS is really putting focused efforts towards eliminating EB2IC backlog (by delaying processing of other categories and thus making available max spill over possible to EB2IC etc) - then I have a feeling their line of thought could be to make it EB2IC current soon...(for few days)...no backlog gives them solid technical reason...what say guys?suninphx,

Whist it is possible, I think it is highly unlikely.

DOS can't (or rather won't) make the category Current for just a few days - look what happened in July 2007 when they tried that stunt!

If there are any visas available beyond the current backlog, I don't think the numbers involved will be large.

Since DOS know how many CP cases there are, and cases up to perhaps June 2008 are now becoming documentarily qualified, DOS only need to move the Cut Off Dates sufficient to cover enough CP cases. Demand would never drop to zero in this case.

Making it Current would be unnecessary. If DOS were seriously contemplating making it Current, we should have seen fee requests for much later PDs.

DOS, according to their own document, can also use estimates of demand when setting the Cut Off Dates. They now have sufficient information (unlike July 2007) to move the Cut Off Dates in a controlled manner beyond July 2007.

Apart from anything else, I think both DOS and USCIS are aware of the chaos that would be caused to the system by the uncontrolled intake of applications that a Current Cut Off Date would unleash.

So, whilst it is not an impossible scenario, I seriously doubt it will happen.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Whist it is possible, I think it is highly unlikely.

DOS can't (or rather won't) make the category Current for just a few days - look what happened in July 2007 when they tried that stunt!

If there are any visas available beyond the current backlog, I don't think the numbers involved will be large.

Since DOS know how many CP cases there are, and cases up to perhaps June 2008 are now becoming documentarily qualified, DOS only need to move the Cut Off Dates sufficient to cover enough CP cases. Demand would never drop to zero in this case.

Making it Current would be unnecessary. If DOS were seriously contemplating making it Current, we should have seen fee requests for much later PDs.

DOS, according to their own document, can also use estimates of demand when setting the Cut Off Dates. They now have sufficient information (unlike July 2007) to move the Cut Off Dates in a controlled manner beyond July 2007.

Apart from anything else, I think both DOS and USCIS are aware of the chaos that would be caused to the system by the uncontrolled intake of applications that a Current Cut Off Date would unleash.

So, whilst it is not an impossible scenario, I seriously doubt it will happen.

Yeah agree with you.

PS: By few days i meant for a month ( For a VB bulletin)

[kd2008]

Making EB2 current won't result in uncontrolled intake of applications. Remember unlike July 2007 where many categories were current, this time we are looking only EB2 to be current. Intake may be around 65000-140000 at best. Right now amongst all categories USCIS receives about 50000-45000 applications per month anyways.

[veni001]

Making EB2 current won't result in uncontrolled intake of applications. Remember unlike July 2007 where many categories were current, this time we are looking only EB2 to be current. Intake may be around 65000-140000 at best. Right now amongst all categories USCIS receives about 50000-45000 applications per month anyways.

kd2008,
Based on the PERM certification data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI), there are ~100k EBIC PERM since July 2007 and another 100K ROWMP PERM. If we use 70-30 for IC and 60-40 for ROWMP, then there isn't big difference between making EB2IC current Vs making every one current! (140k new filings Vs 300k)

Just for number sake, EB2IC demand ~= EB3IC+EB3ROWMP demand.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Whist it is possible, I think it is highly unlikely.

DOS can't (or rather won't) make the category Current for just a few days - look what happened in July 2007 when they tried that stunt!

If there are any visas available beyond the current backlog, I don't think the numbers involved will be large.

Since DOS know how many CP cases there are, and cases up to perhaps June 2008 are now becoming documentarily qualified, DOS only need to move the Cut Off Dates sufficient to cover enough CP cases. Demand would never drop to zero in this case.

Making it Current would be unnecessary. If DOS were seriously contemplating making it Current, we should have seen fee requests for much later PDs.

DOS, according to their own document, can also use estimates of demand when setting the Cut Off Dates. They now have sufficient information (unlike July 2007) to move the Cut Off Dates in a controlled manner beyond July 2007.

Apart from anything else, I think both DOS and USCIS are aware of the chaos that would be caused to the system by the uncontrolled intake of applications that a Current Cut Off Date would unleash.

So, whilst it is not an impossible scenario, I seriously doubt it will happen.

On second thought--

While DOS may have lot of data points compared to 2007 there are still unknowns like how many people are still around who have PD of 2008(and early 2009). For me thats big factor and no one can predict it precisely.

If dates are moved in controlled manner then they have to put their resources to do some tedious calculations each time they make such move. I am sure they will weigh this repeated effort against curent (kinda) set process (of pre-adj cases)..which has proven to be smooth and more predictable.

[qesehmk]

One of the key reasons that 2007 event happened was because DoS didn't have sufficient visibility into USCIS pipeline. Which it seems led DoS to manhandle USCIS by moving dates aggresively. Its quite possible somebody wanted to make it happen (remember this was second last year of an outgoing president. so his admin would be immune from consequences).

This year DoS certainly has visibility to 485. The president is NOT outgoing. So if his admin (DoS chief is part of his admin) makes dates current while country hs 9.2% official unemployment, that won;t be good.

There are very good reasons - economic, moral why the dates should be current. But I do not think now that's going to happen.


If USCIS is really putting focused efforts towards eliminating EB2IC backlog (by delaying processing of other categories and thus making available max spill over possible to EB2IC etc) - then I have a feeling their line of thought could be to make it EB2IC current soon...(for few days)...no backlog gives them solid technical reason...what say guys?


Making EB2 current won't result in uncontrolled intake of applications. Remember unlike July 2007 where many categories were current, this time we are looking only EB2 to be current. Intake may be around 65000-140000 at best. Right now amongst all categories USCIS receives about 50000-45000 applications per month anyways.
There are EB3s too. If its just a matter of intake, they can do it in controlled manner. If its a matter of immigration policy and job continuity and needing the workforce to stay in this country..... then they will and should make everything current. But as I said above the chances of being C are much less.

[bieber]

Q

skilled workforce unemployemnt is around the avg 4-5%, current political administration targeted the wrong area for jobs growth and as everyone can see there is not much improvement and no optimistic foresight. They are very adamant about that and the outcome will be pessimitic for domestic and extraordinary for overseas. It's amazing that they want to bring gone overseas jobs back but all they do is sending out more work. Those manufacturing jobs will never comeback for 2 reasons, they can make it cheaper outside, h1bs/legal immigration is not majorly corelated with those jobs.
while trying to bring back industrial sector in failed mission, they are giving away the service sector jobs

you can not fight with businesses to create jobs, you have to provide incentives

[qesehmk]

I agree w you. And remember H1 or GC by definition is meant where they can't find workers!

As per bringing back lost jobs etc .... I think there are conflicting objectives that various constituencies want. And over time government is now controllled by very small special interests which is making it difficult to keep sanity to the policy. A sane policy would be to let dollar devalue and let manufacturing pickup. But that economic policy is not supported by foreign policy objectives ... which dictates the need for a strong dollar.

p.s. - I am not an expert by any mean. Just a few uneducated thoughts really.




Q

skilled workforce unemployemnt is around the avg 4-5%, current political administration targeted the wrong area for jobs growth and as everyone can see there is not much improvement and no optimistic foresight. They are very adamant about that and the outcome will be pessimitic for domestic and extraordinary for overseas. It's amazing that they want to bring gone overseas jobs back but all they do is sending out more work. Those manufacturing jobs will never comeback for 2 reasons, they can make it cheaper outside, h1bs/legal immigration is not majorly corelated with those jobs.
while trying to bring back industrial sector in failed mission, they are giving away the service sector jobs

you can not fight with businesses to create jobs, you have to provide incentives