EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[veni001]

Veni great catch, I believe this will bring the numbers to the 6K range.

Teddy,
That's correct, about 2k EB2IC PWMB from Jan 2007 to 01JUN2007 or 5-6k from Jan 2007 to 01JUL2007

[kd2008]

bieber,
Good, i like your rule of thumb

EB2(I+C) 485 demand in a CY ~= PERM(I+C) approvals in that CY

EB2:EB3 split is actually 70:30 for I+C. Dependents ratio is 2.09. - From Facts and Data. And I think approval/conversion to I-485 rate cannot be as low as 80% even after accounting for abandoned cases, duplicate cases, denials etc. Considering how expensive it is to go through the process, very unlikely that the rate would be this low. And I thought the dependents ratio included all these in it. Doesn't it? The rule of thumb may be

EB2(I+C) 485 demand in a CY ~= 1.5 PERM(I+C) approvals in that CY

I am reallya pessimist, am I not? LOL!

[soggadu]

All.... Going through the recent pages onthis thread... I understood that most of the people are in agreement that dates will move past 01 Aug 2007 for sure... I guess most of the disagreement/argument is till when the dates would move forward and where the retrogression will bring th dates back to.... Right??:cool:

I am just hoping that I will have a chance to apply for 485 with a PD of oct 22 2007....This year...

[nayekal]

Me too and some of my colleagues with the same PD..Oct 12th 2007

[imechanix]

Guru's & Others,

Thanks for the clarification on PWMB estimation. Now, based on your feedbacks I have better equation to estimate demand data for EB2IC from Jan'07 to July'07 after Sep 2011. This demand includes both PWMB & EB3 Conversions assuming preadjucated cases are approved.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Worst Case Demand per Month= PermIC Per Month*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)*(Percent Denial)+(EB3 Conversions Per Month);
where, EB2:EB3 Ratio = 0.75, Dependent Factor =2.1, Percent Denial = 10%, EB3 Conversions = 4000/12 = 333

Worst Case Demand (PWMB +EB3 Conversions):
Jan'07 -> 486
Feb'07 -> 610
Mar'07 -> 811
Apr'07 -> 1467
May'07 -> 1761
Jun'07 -> 2068
July'07 -> 3075
Total -> 10,278
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Best Case Demand per Month= PermIC Per Month*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)+(EB3 Conversions Per Month);
where, EB2:EB3 Ratio = 0.50, Dependent Factor =2, Percent Denial = 20%, , EB3 Conversions = 2000/12 = 167

Best Case Demand (PWMB +EB3 Conversions):
Jan'07 -> 253
Feb'07 -> 323
Mar'07 -> 436
Apr'07 -> 807
May'07 -> 972
Jun'07 -> 1146
July'07 -> 1714
Total -> 5,651
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If India & China recieve 250 visas each month the following can be approximate visa bulletin movement post Sep 2011.

**********************************
Worst Case VB Movement 2011-2012
Oct' 11 -> Jan' 07
Nov' 11 -> Feb' 07
Dec' 11 -> Feb' 07
Jan' 12 -> Feb' 07
Feb' 12 -> Mar' 07
Mar' 12 -> Mar' 07
Apr' 12 -> Mar' 07
May' 12 -> Apr' 07
After this VB movement can be big jumps
**********************************

**********************************
Best Case VB Movement 2011-2012
Oct' 11 -> Feb' 07
Nov' 11 -> Mar' 07
Dec' 11 -> Apr' 07
Jan' 12 -> Apr' 07
Feb' 12 -> Apr' 07
Mar' 12 -> May' 07
Apr' 12 -> May' 07
May' 12 -> May' 07
After this VB movement can be big jumps
**********************************

This is just an attempt for estimating post Sep 2011 movement. Gurus & others any critic is welcome.

Thanks.

[kd2008]

Imechanix,

India: China ratio is 3:1 or 4:1, so retrogression is not going to be same for both. Moreover, after retrogression, the movement of dates forward won't be same either. China will move at least 3 months faster than India and at most 9 months faster.

[nayekal]

Imechanix,

India: China ratio is 3:1 or 4:1, so retrogression is not going to be same for both. Moreover, after retrogression, the movement of dates forward won't be same either. China will move at least 3 months faster than India and at most 9 months faster.
Which means India will utilize more spill over visas before it matches with China's date movement.

[ifaith]

My colleague at work(PWMB) just posted today that his PD is Aug 2006 and he became current with June bulletin, he submitted his papers and got a receipt notice of June 9th 2011. Is there any chance of his application being approved by end of Sept 2011.

[imechanix]

Which means India will utilize more spill over visas before it matches with China's date movement.

kd2008/nayekal,

I agree China movement will be different as it willl be far ahead after Sep 2011 Bulletin. Ok, I corrected my calculations and added 4:1 split in the estimated demand data (PWMB+EB3 Conversions) between India and China.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Anticipated Demand (PWMB + EB3 Conversions)
---------------Worst Case---------------Best Case----------Worst Case---------------Best Case
---------------India---------------India-----------------China---------------China
Jan' 07---------------365---------------90---------------122---------------63
Feb' 07---------------457---------------242---------------152---------------81
Mar' 07---------------608---------------327---------------203---------------109
Apr' 07---------------1101---------------605---------------367---------------202
May' 07---------------1321---------------729---------------440---------------243
Jun' 07---------------1551---------------859---------------517---------------286
Jul' 07---------------2306---------------1285---------------769---------------428
Total---------------7709---------------4238---------------2570---------------1413
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


************************************************** **********
Estimated VB 2011-2012 Movement Subject to 250 visas per month allowable visa
------------------------------India---------------------------------------China---------------
----------------------Worst---------------Best---------------Worst---------------Best
Oct'11---------------Jan' 07---------------Mar' 07---------------Mar' 07---------------Jul' 07
Nov'11---------------Feb' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Aug' 07
Dec'11---------------Mar' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Aug' 07
Jan'12---------------Mar' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Jun' 07---------------Apr' 07
Feb'12---------------Mar' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Jul' 07 ---------------Apr' 07
Mar'12---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Jul' 07 ---------------Aug' 07
Apr'12---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Aug' 07---------------Sep' 07
May'12---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Aug' 07---------------Sep' 07
After this VB movement can be big jumps
************************************************** **********

Let me know what you think.

[pch053]

My colleague at work(PWMB) just posted today that his PD is Aug 2006 and he became current with June bulletin, he submitted his papers and got a receipt notice of June 9th 2011. Is there any chance of his application being approved by end of Sept 2011.
Its unlikely that his case will be approved by Sep'11 as USCIS is currently processing Oct'10/Dec'10 (depending on service center) submitted applications. However, he will surely get approved once it crosses Sep'11. Even if EB2-I retrogress at that point, it will surely not retrogress until Aug'06.

[veni001]

EB2:EB3 split is actually 70:30 for I+C. Dependents ratio is 2.09. - From Facts and Data. And I think approval/conversion to I-485 rate cannot be as low as 80% even after accounting for abandoned cases, duplicate cases, denials etc. Considering how expensive it is to go through the process, very unlikely that the rate would be this low. And I thought the dependents ratio included all these in it. Doesn't it? The rule of thumb may be

EB2(I+C) 485 demand in a CY ~= 1.5 PERM(I+C) approvals in that CY

I am really pessimist, am I not? LOL!

kd2008,
It can't be 1.5 times! Just look at PERM & 485data for I&C for CY 2006

I&C 2006 PD Certified in FY2006 = 18,011
I&C 2006 PD Certified FY2007-11 =14,746
I&C 2006 PD Total = 32,757
EB2I&C 2006 PD 485 known demand =27,159+porting based on Dec 2009 inventory update.

Ratio ~= 0.83

Note:This is only for discussion purposes for people like to get EB2IC ballpark estimate based on PERM approvals.

[kd2008]

kd2008,
It can't be 1.5 times! Just look at PERM & 485data for I&C for CY 2006

I&C 2006 PD Certified in FY2006 = 18,011
I&C 2006 PD Certified FY2007-11 =14,746
I&C 2006 PD Total = 32,757
EB2I&C 2006 PD 485 known demand =27,159+porting based on Dec 2009 inventory update.

Ratio ~= 0.83

Note:This is only for discussion purposes for people like to get EB2IC ballpark estimate based on PERM approvals.

Cool, thanks for correcting.

EB3 I+C inventory with PD 2006 in Dec 2009 inventory report was ~ 12,300. So roughly the split was 70/30.

[veni001]

Cool, thanks for correcting.

EB3 I+C inventory with PD 2006 in Dec 2009 inventory report was ~ 12,300. So roughly the split was 70/30.

kd2008,
Agree with 70/30 split for EBI&C, this was discussed and confirmed earlier also.
In-addition this discussion brings two interesting observations
1. In any given CY(2007-2010) EB2IC demand is less than 30k
2. EB2IC known demand(2007PWMB - Q1CY2011) will be about 85k

[kd2008]

kd2008,
Agree with 70/30 split for EBI&C, this was discussed and confirmed earlier also.
Yup, I saw the recent prevailing wage data analysis and this checks out. Excellent confirmation...
In-addition this discussion brings two interesting observations
1. In any given CY(2007-2010) EB2IC demand is less than 30k
This another important and astute observation...
2. EB2IC known demand(2007PWMB - Q1CY2011) will be about 85k

I agree with this one and personally this is a huge relief for me. The number thrown around in IV were 120k + ....

Do you think this demand might shrink on account of porting cases which have been already issues GCs in 2007-2011 but their PERMs and I-140 we still endup adding to our demand estimate?


Veni, thanks a bunch! You are a peach!

[Spectator]

kd2008/nayekal,

I agree China movement will be different as it willl be far ahead after Sep 2011 Bulletin. Ok, I corrected my calculations and added 4:1 split in the estimated demand data (PWMB+EB3 Conversions) between India and China.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Anticipated Demand (PWMB + EB3 Conversions)
---------------Worst Case---------------Best Case----------Worst Case---------------Best Case
---------------India---------------India-----------------China---------------China
Jan' 07---------------365---------------90---------------122---------------63
Feb' 07---------------457---------------242---------------152---------------81
Mar' 07---------------608---------------327---------------203---------------109
Apr' 07---------------1101---------------605---------------367---------------202
May' 07---------------1321---------------729---------------440---------------243
Jun' 07---------------1551---------------859---------------517---------------286
Jul' 07---------------2306---------------1285---------------769---------------428
Total---------------7709---------------4238---------------2570---------------1413
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------


************************************************** **********
Estimated VB 2011-2012 Movement Subject to 250 visas per month allowable visa
------------------------------India---------------------------------------China---------------
----------------------Worst---------------Best---------------Worst---------------Best
Oct'11---------------Jan' 07---------------Mar' 07---------------Mar' 07---------------Jul' 07
Nov'11---------------Feb' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Aug' 07
Dec'11---------------Mar' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Aug' 07
Jan'12---------------Mar' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Jun' 07---------------Apr' 07
Feb'12---------------Mar' 07---------------Apr' 07---------------Jul' 07 ---------------Apr' 07
Mar'12---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Jul' 07 ---------------Aug' 07
Apr'12---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Aug' 07---------------Sep' 07
May'12---------------Apr' 07---------------May'07---------------Aug' 07---------------Sep' 07
After this VB movement can be big jumps
************************************************** **********

Let me know what you think.imechanix,

One thing you might want to consider is the cycle time for the PWMB I-485 to be adjudicated.

I'll use 8 months as an example only.

Essentially, dates to the end of Feb 2007 are Current from July 2011 and the applications probably won't reach the Service Centers (from the lockboxes) until August.

They only count as demand to DOS when USCIS requests a visa, so that wouldn't happen until March/April 2012, when the application is adjudicated.

Until that time, the Cut Off dates wouldn't be affected by PWMB / New applicants. Probably only Porting cases would be counted as demand, since they have underlying pre-adjudicated I-485 cases.

Say for the May 2012 VB, that more unused visas are announced from EB1. Then the numbers per month jump and retrogression is less likely.

Given all that, I don't think the dates would ever retrogress as far back as Jan 2007. There aren't that many early PWMB and they won't become demand until well after October 2012.

The largest PWMB demand might not appear until more visas were available from EB1. This might have the effect of stalling forward movement, but it likely wouldn't cause further retrogression.

It is something to consider at least.

[qesehmk]

On a different topic, Ron Gotcher's newsletter yesterday discussed 3 key reasons behind delays in 140.
1. Ability to pay is being questioned
2. 3 Yr undergrad degree is being questions regardless whether teh applicant has MS or PHD from US.
3. Employer-employee relationship in consulting companies is being scrutinized.

The net effect is increase in I-140 inventory. This of course bodes well for current EB2IC backlog reduction. However, here is something that is baffling to me. Hope somebody might be able to throw light on this.

If you look at the increase in pending 140 (P), it is incosistent with the receipts (R) and approvals (A) and awaiting customer action increase (W).

Theoretically P = R - A - W

But somehow the formula doesn't work on the data published on USCIS dashboard.

Wonder if anybody has any better insights?

[vishnu]

Q - that is on the processing delays. But why is there less demand itself for EB1?

[kd2008]

Q, that means the USCIS data is unreliable. I am quoting form a trackitt thread:


They said that they may be able to get more accurate up-to-date information once they go completely digital, but not right now, as they need to compile the data from different sources and match it to their database along with other checks and balances.

[qesehmk]

Less demand is in terms of visas due to delay in 485 processing. But 485 receipts are not low by any means.
Q - that is on the processing delays. But why is there less demand itself for EB1?

[08OCT2008]

People who port from EB3 to EB2 should be counted with the prior PD and not the new PERM filing date. I just wanted to bring it up so you don't double count these numbers. If the estimates are correct then ~ 5-6K GCs every year goes to this porting bucket. So we might have to reduce ~ 2800 K each year in PERM numbers.

[Spectator]

On a different topic, Ron Gotcher's newsletter yesterday discussed 3 key reasons behind delays in 140.
1. Ability to pay is being questioned
2. 3 Yr undergrad degree is being questions regardless whether teh applicant has MS or PHD from US.
3. Employer-employee relationship in consulting companies is being scrutinized.

The net effect is increase in I-140 inventory. This of course bodes well for current EB2IC backlog reduction. However, here is something that is baffling to me. Hope somebody might be able to throw light on this.

If you look at the increase in pending 140 (P), it is incosistent with the receipts (R) and approvals (A) and awaiting customer action increase (W).

Theoretically P = R - A - W

But somehow the formula doesn't work on the data published on USCIS dashboard.

Wonder if anybody has any better insights?Q,

Not had time to think about it much, but one immediate thought is that not all of A reduces P.

Completions (either Approvals or Denials) also come from the Pre-adjudicated total, so it would only be a % of A.

The basis of the pre-adjudicated total has also changed with the return of cases from LO in January 2011.

As others have said, the data is probably not good enough either for such precise calculations.

Hope that helps.

[vishnu]

ok thanks Q - I thought that applications were also lower...

[TeddyKoochu]

On a different topic, Ron Gotcher's newsletter yesterday discussed 3 key reasons behind delays in 140.
1. Ability to pay is being questioned
2. 3 Yr undergrad degree is being questions regardless whether teh applicant has MS or PHD from US.
3. Employer-employee relationship in consulting companies is being scrutinized.

The net effect is increase in I-140 inventory. This of course bodes well for current EB2IC backlog reduction. However, here is something that is baffling to me. Hope somebody might be able to throw light on this.

If you look at the increase in pending 140 (P), it is incosistent with the receipts (R) and approvals (A) and awaiting customer action increase (W).

Theoretically P = R - A - W

But somehow the formula doesn't work on the data published on USCIS dashboard.

Wonder if anybody has any better insights?

Q I believe that this discrepancy can be explained in the following way. In their jargon Completion means approval's + denials and essentially 1 record has just 1 status for the month, so if for any reason a case see's an approval or denial in the same month the report is only showing it as a completion, even though every thing would have started as a receipt. The dashboard is kind of more intended towards management reporting with management really more interested in seeing the volumes ball park. The equation you give will add up if all states of the application are captured by the dates within every month.

[vishnu]

Teddy - whats the E2E memo?

[qesehmk]

Spec I am not sure about this. I think whether a 485 is preadjudicated or not the corresponding 140 case would be classified as P or W until it is approved or denied.

Secondly, 485 adjudication will not happen unless the underlying 140 is approved. So not sure what you mean by preadj.

However I do agree that the data itself is not quite clean and so probably not much helpful.

Q,

Completions (either Approvals or Denials) also come from the Pre-adjudicated total, so it would only be a % of A.


As others have said, the data is probably not good enough either for such precise calculations.




Teddy completions do include denials as well. So the formula should still work. I don't understand the logic behind what you are saying. Please illustrate.


Q I believe that this discrepancy can be explained in the following way. In their jargon Completion means approval's + denials and essentially 1 record has just 1 status for the month, so if for any reason a case see's an approval or denial in the same month the report is only showing it as a completion, even though every thing would have started as a receipt. The dashboard is kind of more intended towards management reporting with management really more interested in seeing the volumes ball park. The equation you give will add up if all states of the application are captured by the dates within every month.

[leo07]

This must be applied ONLY to H1b, but Ron Gotcher feels that it's being applied to 140 cases as well.

Teddy - whats the E2E memo?

[Spectator]

Spec I am not sure about this. I think whether a 485 is preadjudicated or not the corresponding 140 case would be classified as P or W until it is approved or denied.

Secondly, 485 adjudication will not happen unless the underlying 140 is approved. So not sure what you mean by preadj.

However I do agree that the data itself is not quite clean and so probably not much helpful.



Teddy completions do include denials as well. So the formula should still work. I don't understand the logic behind what you are saying. Please illustrate.Q,

Actually it is my fault. I was talking about I-485 dashboard figures rather than the I-140 you were actually talking about. I really must learn to read more carefully!

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy completions do include denials as well. So the formula should still work. I don't understand the logic behind what you are saying. Please illustrate.
Q consider the folowing scenarios. So if the case is receipted in the same month and at the end of the month its pending its fine however next month this record gets orphaned there is another possibility its receipted then it goes to RFE (W) and then pending then this equation breaks down. What if they are recording only the latest even then the equation breaks down. So at best the dashboard is a snapshot.

[pch053]

Ability to pay is definitely going to hit small and typical consulting companies hard, many of them are compelling people to apply in EB3 due to this. I have a colleague who with 10 plus years of work experience being pushed to EB3 as the company says EB2 will be denied.


I thought "Ability to Pay" can be an issue for all categories of employment based GC sponsorship. For example, if the employer mentions that the employee will get paid X in the labor certification, then the employer has to show that it is capable of paying X to the employee irrespective of the category of GC sponsorship. The payscale in EB2 might be a bit higher than EB3 but often the difference might not be that significant.

[TeddyKoochu]

I thought the issue of "Ability to Pay" can be an issue for all categories of employment based GC sponsorship. For example, if the employer mentions that the employee will get paid X in the labor certification, then the employer has to show that it is capable of paying X to the employee irrespective of the category of GC sponsorship. The payscale in EB2 might be a bit higher than EB3 but often the difference might not be that significant.

I don’t know if my colleague was taken for a ride but for EB2 they will definitely scrutinize to the fullest as you say the difference may not be that much in terms of the numbers but probably the justification of high salary in a small company is harder to give they would ask for the details of every employee in the company. With EB3 maybe they are a little lenient. Like for example the position is senior analyst its harder to justify for a smaller company they have to justify how many analysts / developers what each of them is paid and then what the senior analyst will pay, this literally goes beyond what exactly ability to pay should be. The practice of EB3 being safe is still being sold to people who a) Don't know about EB3-I situation b) Who are in their late H1 years and want to play it safe for a 3 yr extension.

[Tomtuat]

Hi Gurus & other members,

Though I've been following several immigration forums, I never posted enthing anywhere. So this is my first post and here I must say that "this is THE BEST forum in terms of prediction, facts, statistics, mutual respect ...." Thanks to Q for starting such a wonderful forum and thanks to all other gurus and members for their valuable and sincere input.

My PD is June 05 2008. Can you please let me know how soon I can "file my 485" (bast case and worst case) based on the available data and assumptions? Really appreciate your help.

Cheers
Tom

[qesehmk]

Teddy

We will never know. But I common sense would say if tehy make it W then its no longer P. Anyway ... but just wanted to point out that 140 data is not useful because of tehse issues.


Q consider the folowing scenarios. So if the case is receipted in the same month and at the end of the month its pending its fine however next month this record gets orphaned there is another possibility its receipted then it goes to RFE (W) and then pending then this equation breaks down. What if they are recording only the latest even then the equation breaks down. So at best the dashboard is a snapshot.

PCH you are absolutely right. The issue however is not ability to pay for all cases. Its really situations where the employer has applied multiple 140s for teh same candidate, that's where USCIS is asking ability to pay for all those different positions. I would imagine these kind of situations are lingering on the border of fraud.

I thought "Ability to Pay" can be an issue for all categories of employment based GC sponsorship. For example, if the employer mentions that the employee will get paid X in the labor certification, then the employer has to show that it is capable of paying X to the employee irrespective of the category of GC sponsorship. The payscale in EB2 might be a bit higher than EB3 but often the difference might not be that significant.

[qesehmk]

perhaps as soon as Sep-Nov 2011 (60% chance) or as late as (sep-nov 2013 - 100% chance).

p.s. - Regardless when you file, you should have a GC w you by Dec 2013 (assuming u r EB2).



My PD is June 05 2008. Can you please let me know how soon I can "file my 485" (bast case and worst case) based on the available data and assumptions? Really appreciate your help.

[leo07]

I believe Q meant Sep-Nov 2012

perhaps as soon as Sep-Nov 2011 (60% chance) or as late as (sep-nov 2013 - 100% chance).

p.s. - Regardless when you file, you should have a GC w you by Dec 2013 (assuming u r EB2).

[gcq]

I thought "Ability to Pay" can be an issue for all categories of employment based GC sponsorship. For example, if the employer mentions that the employee will get paid X in the labor certification, then the employer has to show that it is capable of paying X to the employee irrespective of the category of GC sponsorship. The payscale in EB2 might be a bit higher than EB3 but often the difference might not be that significant.

Ability to pay was a standard RFE for small companies all the time. For bigger companies, USCIS generally never bothered about ability to pay. Not sure whether Ron means USCIS is going after bigger companies too.

Anyways this is not an issue as most of the companies take A2P into consideration before they apply for GC for any employee.

[kd2008]

Q, Veni, Spec,

Would be possible to create a data page similar to i140 to i1485 Ratios (From DHS Year Books of Statistics) but with PERM certifications to i1485 Ratios?

I know this wouldn't be as accurate at the i140 to i485 ratios due to nearly 8 months of cycle time for ROW and inherent backlogs for EB2 I & C, EB3 all, but it will give us some sense of what percentage of PERM certifications do get translated into i485 filings.

Thanks!

[Tomtuat]

Thanks Q and Leo!

I hope Q meant 2012 :)


I believe Q meant Sep-Nov 2012

[hoping4thebest]

I have been following this thread and understand that we probably have visibility into late 2007 or even mid 2008 PDs. But based on the PERM/I140 and other data for post-July 2007 cases...do you guys have a rough estimate of when the VB might reach early 2009 [My pd is Jan 2009 :( ]. Any likely of this happening towards end of FY2012 (July-Sep 2012)??
As always, thanks for your excellent analysis and efforts.

[vizcard]

first time poster.

The earlier posts seem to indicate that the USCIS may move the PD to mid 2008 some time in Oct 2011 and then retrogress in Nov or Dec 2011.

I think regardless, it would be prudent to keep your documentation ready to pull the trigger as soon as it becomes current.

[kd2008]

kd2008,
It can't be 1.5 times! Just look at PERM & 485data for I&C for CY 2006

I&C 2006 PD Certified in FY2006 = 18,011
I&C 2006 PD Certified FY2007-11 =14,746
I&C 2006 PD Total = 32,757
EB2I&C 2006 PD 485 known demand =27,159+porting based on Dec 2009 inventory update.

Ratio ~= 0.83

Note:This is only for discussion purposes for people like to get EB2IC ballpark estimate based on PERM approvals.

Veni,

I am looking at Jan 2007-July 2007 data:

EB2I&C 2007 PD 485 known demand from Dec 2009 inventory = 15800
I&C 2007 PD certified in jan-july 2007 = 11500 (from PERM Breakdowns For PD (including Monthly Breakdown), 16326 - 4842 = 11484)

Surely, here the ratio is 1.4

Please help me understand how the ratio was 0.83 in 2006 but 1.4 in jan-july 2007.

[Spectator]

Veni,

I am looking at Jan 2007-July 2007 data:

EB2I&C 2007 PD 485 known demand from Dec 2009 inventory = 15800
I&C 2007 PD certified in jan-july 2007 = 11500 (from PERM Breakdowns For PD (including Monthly Breakdown), 16326 - 4842 = 11484)

Surely, here the ratio is 1.4

Please help me understand how the ratio was 0.83 in 2006 but 1.4 in jan-july 2007.

I don't think the calculation for 2006 is valid, since the Inventory for 2006 cases never represented the full picture.

PDs in 2006 were Current both in July 2007 and August-September 2008. By the time the Inventory was first published in 2009, numbers had already been approved and it is impossible to know the original starting number. China had reached January 2006 in June 2007 and Sep-Nov 2007.

It is unlikely that many (if any) 2007 cases were approved in July 2007, as all were new applications and the dates had never moved into 2007 until the July VB. All Inventories published should therefore represent the total number of cases filed to date.

[veni001]

Veni,

I am looking at Jan 2007-July 2007 data:

EB2I&C 2007 PD 485 known demand from Dec 2009 inventory = 15800
I&C 2007 PD certified in jan-july 2007 = 11500 (from PERM Breakdowns For PD (including Monthly Breakdown), 16326 - 4842 = 11484)

Surely, here the ratio is 1.4

Please help me understand how the ratio was 0.83 in 2006 but 1.4 in jan-july 2007.


I don't think the calculation for 2006 is valid, since the Inventory for 2006 cases never represented the full picture.

PDs in 2006 were Current both in July 2007 and July-September 2008. By the time the Inventory was first published in 2009, numbers had already been approved and it is impossible to know the original starting number.

It is unlikely that many (if any) 2007 cases were approved in July 2007 and the dates had never moved into 2007 until very recently.

Spec,
I agree 2006 was current few months before the first inventory was out.

In any event adding EB3IC inventory till July 2007 to EB2IC and assuming minimal denials/rejections at 140, then 485 data is only representing 85% of the EBIC labor certifications?

EBIC(2+3) 485 ~= 21,000( Jan 2007 - Jul 2007)
PERM certifications~= 11,500

[leo07]

lol. your PD is in 2008, you must hope that Q meant 2011 :)

Thanks Q and Leo!

I hope Q meant 2012 :)

[kd2008]

I don't think the calculation for 2006 is valid, since the Inventory for 2006 cases never represented the full picture.

PDs in 2006 were Current both in July 2007 and July-September 2008. By the time the Inventory was first published in 2009, numbers had already been approved and it is impossible to know the original starting number. China had reached January 2006 in June 2007 and Sep-Nov 2007.

It is unlikely that many (if any) 2007 cases were approved in July 2007, as all were new applications and the dates had never moved into 2007 until the July VB. All Inventories published should therefore represent the total number of cases filed to date.

I see. Thanks for the explanation. So I am going to stick with my 1.5 multiplier. :p

[cbpds1]

leo.....I think Q meant worst case is 2012 as its likely that the buffer date will move till Apr 2008, hence Tom may have to wait for 1 more year :(


lol. your PD is in 2008, you must hope that Q meant 2011 :)

[qblogfan]

I am a big fan of this blog. I have followed this blog for several weeks. I really like the data analysis done by you guys. This blog contains so much useful information. Now I just want to publish my first post to thank you guys for the great work!

[Spectator]

Hi Spec

I have a doubt regarding 2006 PDs approved before 2009 inventory. Because, considerable numbers of 2005 PD were approved in 2010, how can a later PD gets approved even before 2005 PDs i.e., before 2009 inventory numbers .
That is why I said it is impossible to know the original number. It would come down to the luck of the draw on how fast the PERM was approved and whether the case was adjudicated when the window was actually open.

[qblogfan]

My personal opinion is that you can submit 485 in this summer or next summer. It depends on how many new applications DOS wants to admit in this summer. I estimate there are around 35k C&I EB2 new demand before June 2008. If DOS wants to prepare 35k for next year's spillover, you will have some chance to submit 485. I think the worst case is that you can submit in the next summer. I am confident we will have at least 15-20k spillover next year despite of the slow processing speed of EB1 and EB2 ROW. I am not a guru. Just my personal opinion.

[Spectator]

Spec,
I agree 2006 was current few months before the first inventory was out.

In any event adding EB3IC inventory till July 2007 to EB2IC and assuming minimal denials/rejections at 140, then 485 data is only representing 85% of the EBIC labor certifications?

EBIC(2+3) 485 ~= 21,000( Jan 2007 - Jul 2007)
PERM certifications~= 11,500
That assumes that the Inventory is the whole universe.

There are CP cases in addition (15% for India and 30-50% for China in EB3) and an unknown number of cases still awaiting interview at LO.

The Inventory almost certainly under represents the true numbers, especially for EB3.

[qblogfan]

What I did was I calculated the numbers from 06/2006 to 07/2007. VB never crossed 06/2006 after 2007.

[kd2008]

What I did was I calculated the numbers from 06/2006 to 07/2007. VB never crossed 06/2006 after 2007.

I like your username!

[Spectator]

What I did was I calculated the numbers from 06/2006 to 07/2007. VB never crossed 06/2006 after 2007.
Apart from September 2008, when it reached 01AUG06 http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_4328.html

[qblogfan]

I am sorry. I typed a wrong month.

What I meant was I calculated the number of cases from 08/2006 to 07/2007 (12 months totally). This number should be close to our future annual demand. My estimation is that our future annual demand of I&C EB2 should be around 30k.

The PERM numbers in 2006, 2007 and 2008 are at similar levels.


Apart from September 2008, when it reached 01AUG06 http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_4328.html

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your comment! I really like this blog and created this name. I like the friendly environment here. There is not much argument, but much friendship and care. I don't want to ruin it. :)

[Spectator]

I am sorry. I typed a wrong month.

What I meant was I calculated the number of cases from 08/2006 to 07/2007 (12 months totally). This number should be close to our future annual demand. My estimation is that our future annual demand of I&C EB2 should be around 30k.

The PERM numbers in 2006, 2007 and 2008 are at similar levels.

Don't worry.

Sorry if I sounded a bit sharp.

Actually, the PD history data on the IV website has (or had - I haven't looked recently) that very same error. It had 01JUN06 for July-Sep 2008. I used that as the initial data for a spreadsheet I keep and only very recently noticed the error.

I think prior to DOS actually publishing the history, most people used it and probably still do.

Welcome to the forum.

PS My reservations are more about trying to extrapolate a year we know to be incomplete. It is already hard enough when we think a year shows the complete picture.

[qblogfan]

No problem, sir. I like your analysis and your information is very useful. You guys have done so much deep analysis based on solid data. I am glad to join this forum. I have a PD of 2008.01. I hope I can submit 485 in this summer. Keep my fingers crossed. Two of my coworkers have PDs of 2008.02 and 2008.04, but they got NVC fee notices two days after the June VB was released. I heard usually NVC is very careful about these notices and they only send fee notices 4-6 months before a PD becomes current. Both of my coworkers have paid the fee and they said the fee is only valid for 12 months. I think it is a strong sign they may move PD to April 2008 within 12 months, or even within 4-6 months. What do you guys think about this? I am not a guru, but I just heard this information from coworkers.

[Gclongwait]

[/QUOTE]Two of my coworkers have PDs of 2008.02 and 2008.04, but they got NVC fee notices two days after the June VB was released. I heard usually NVC is very careful about these notices and they only send fee notices 4-6 months before a PD becomes current. Both of my coworkers have paid the fee and they said the fee is only valid for 12 months. I think it is a strong sign they may move PD to April 2008 within 12 months, or even within 4-6 months.[/QUOTE]

What do you guys say about this? Specially the fact that the fees are only valid for 12 months (I didnt know that). That means not only do they have to be current but their interviews must be held within the next 12 months. Otherwise they would make people pay twice. That would at a minimum be wrong and at a maximum open them for lawsuits.

[tonyromo]

Gurus,

Something does not add up in PERM numbers and I-485 Inventory for July 2007. Total PERM approved for IC in July 2007 is 665. EB2-EB3 I-485 total inventory for July 2007 is 4506 (EB2I = 1574, EB2C = 1867, EB3I = 890, EB3C = 175).

How can it be possible? Even considering 100% approval at I-140 stage, each perm got converted to approx 6.5 I-1485. Am I missing something here ?



Spec,
I agree 2006 was current few months before the first inventory was out.

In any event adding EB3IC inventory till July 2007 to EB2IC and assuming minimal denials/rejections at 140, then 485 data is only representing 85% of the EBIC labor certifications?

EBIC(2+3) 485 ~= 21,000( Jan 2007 - Jul 2007)
PERM certifications~= 11,500

[qblogfan]

Yes, sir! Originally I thought they got spam and finally they told me it's real deal. They also thought it was scam. Then we thought maybe DOS and USCIS are playing games again, but yesterday my coworkers told me they paid the fee and the $795 fee is only valid for 12 months. I think this is a very serious deal. Usually they won't ask you to pay the fees unless they are 90% confident about the future movement. DOS/NVC won't play a game on real money, right?

Another interesting thing is that a friend with PD Nov. 2007 got his notice right after the release of VB in April. My coworkers with PD 2008 got their notices right after the release of VB in May. June VB mentioned the upgrade from EB3-EB2 is very small, so I guess DOS informed NVC to send out more fee notices to cover some of PD 2008.

I suspect there is some relationship between the fee notices and the estimation from DOS. DOS notices NVC on a monthly basis. Maybe we will see more fee notices after the next VB.



Two of my coworkers have PDs of 2008.02 and 2008.04, but they got NVC fee notices two days after the June VB was released. I heard usually NVC is very careful about these notices and they only send fee notices 4-6 months before a PD becomes current. Both of my coworkers have paid the fee and they said the fee is only valid for 12 months. I think it is a strong sign they may move PD to April 2008 within 12 months, or even within 4-6 months.[/QUOTE]

What do you guys say about this? Specially the fact that the fees are only valid for 12 months (I didnt know that). That means not only do they have to be current but their interviews must be held within the next 12 months. Otherwise they would make people pay twice. That would at a minimum be wrong and at a maximum open them for lawsuits.[/QUOTE]

[veni001]

Q, Veni, Spec,

Would be possible to create a data page similar to i140 to i1485 Ratios (From DHS Year Books of Statistics) but with PERM certifications to i1485 Ratios?

I know this wouldn't be as accurate at the i140 to i485 ratios due to nearly 8 months of cycle time for ROW and inherent backlogs for EB2 I & C, EB3 all, but it will give us some sense of what percentage of PERM certifications do get translated into i485 filings.

Thanks!

Considering all the variables it will take some brain storming before we can start on this.


That assumes that the Inventory is the whole universe.

There are CP cases in addition (15% for India and 30-50% for China in EB3) and an unknown number of cases still awaiting interview at LO.

The Inventory almost certainly under represents the true numbers, especially for EB3.

Spec,
I missed the CP cases, which is significant piece of the pie when comes to EB3!

[Spectator]

Gurus,

Something does not add up in PERM numbers and I-485 Inventory for July 2007. Total PERM approved for IC in July 2007 is 665. EB2-EB3 I-485 total inventory for July 2007 is 4506 (EB2I = 1574, EB2C = 1867, EB3I = 890, EB3C = 175).

How can it be possible? Even considering 100% approval at I-140 stage, each perm got converted to approx 6.5 I-1485. Am I missing something here ?tonyromo,

I take my hat of to you! You have obviously been looking at the data with a very keen eye.

I had noticed this too and was rather hoping nobody else would! ;)

A couple of possible solutions.

If I push the date from the end of July towards the last day filing were accepted, then the figure increases to 1,400 although that is perhaps somewhat cheating. It does however introduce a small number of August PD cases, which is what we see in the Inventory.

Secondly, we know that extracting the received date is not a perfect match for PD, because kd2008 explained that the case number was generated when the electronic process was initiated, rather than when the PERM was actually submitted.

Because some lawyers pre-filled forms ready to submit, some cases might appear to have earlier PDs in our analysis than they actually have. This would have the effect of increasing the July 2007 PERM numbers Certified before the end of July. Since the shift is likely reasonably constant it shouldn't alter the overall monthly totals, but it would mean more PERMs with a July 2007 PD Certified before the end of July 2007.

I accept it probably isn't a very satisfactory explanation. It's the best I can give presently and reflects the imperfect data we have to work with.

Great analysis! Do you have any ideas?

[qesehmk]

tonyromo if Spec tips his hat to you .... bask in this glory! Welcome to the forum!


tonyromo,

I take my hat of to you! You have obviously been looking at the data with a very keen eye.

I had noticed this too and was rather hoping nobody else would! ;)

[gcwait2007]

tonyromo,

I take my hat of to you! You have obviously been looking at the data with a very keen eye.

I had noticed this too and was rather hoping nobody else would! ;)

A couple of possible solutions.

If I push the date from the end of July towards the last day filing were accepted, then the figure increases to 1,400 although that is perhaps somewhat cheating. It does however introduce a small number of August PD cases, which is what we see in the Inventory.

Secondly, we know that extracting the received date is not a perfect match for PD, because kd2008 explained that the case number was generated when the electronic process was initiated, rather than when the PERM was actually submitted.

Because some lawyers pre-filled forms ready to submit, some cases might appear to have earlier PDs in our analysis than they actually have. This would have the effect of increasing the July 2007 PERM numbers Certified before the end of July. Since the shift is likely reasonably constant it shouldn't alter the overall monthly totals, but it would mean more PERMs with a July 2007 PD Certified before the end of July 2007.

I accept it probably isn't a very satisfactory explanation. It's the best I can give presently and reflects the imperfect data we have to work with.

Great analysis! Do you have any ideas?

I knew some reality at least in my prior organization. Wherever PERM approval was not received for the applications filed in May, June and July 2007, Attorneys took calculated risk of submitting concurrent I-140 and I-485 in August 2007, without PERM approval. They were correct that they would get the PERM approval before receipt of RFE and submit the same. They did this upto August 15th, 2007.

[Spectator]

I knew some reality at least in my prior organization. Wherever PERM approval was not received for the applications filed in May, June and July 2007, Attorneys took calculated risk of submitting concurrent I-140 and I-485 in August 2007, without PERM approval. They were correct that they would get the PERM approval before receipt of RFE and submit the same. They did this upto August 15th, 2007.
gcwait,

Thanks for the first hand experience. That is quite useful.

Even in this case, the PERM themselves (and therefore the I-485) would still have a PD of May, June or July wouldn't they?

So any August PD cases should not be considered as filed under the July VB. I still can't understand why there are ANY August 2007 PD cases in the Inventory at all, given the memo discussed earlier.

I might consider replacing the End of July table with one to August 17, 2007 decision date, since it does make quite a big difference to the July 2007 PD numbers. I can put a note about the August cases.

What do others think?

[qesehmk]

A quick note. Sometime in last couple of hours this thread surpassed 300K views. What's interesting is we had passed 200K just on 24th May. So the next 100K came in just 22 days!

Thanks to all contributors for a meaningful, valuable and respectful dialogue. All the best!

[qblogfan]

I am very exciting to know this too. It's great news! Thanks for sharing!

[qblogfan]

Frankly it's a great blog. I was watching quietly before, but I feel I should post something, so I registered an account today. I am sure many others are watching quietly. Thank you for providing such a nice forum to discuss about GC issues.


A quick note. Sometime in last couple of hours this thread surpassed 300K views. What's interesting is we had passed 200K just on 24th May. So the next 100K came in just 22 days!

Thanks to all contributors for a meaningful, valuable and respectful dialogue. All the best!

[ifaith]

A quick note. Sometime in last couple of hours this thread surpassed 300K views. What's interesting is we had passed 200K just on 24th May. So the next 100K came in just 22 days!

Thanks to all contributors for a meaningful, valuable and respectful dialogue. All the best!

You are talking like Apple's Steve Jobs now, our App Store downloaded x apps in 9 months and do it 2x we did in 3 months:)

[qesehmk]

LoL !!!!!!


You are talking like Apple's Steve Jobs now, our App Store downloaded x apps in 9 months and do it 2x we did in 3 months:)

[sssbpgmgc]

A quick note. Sometime in last couple of hours this thread surpassed 300K views. What's interesting is we had passed 200K just on 24th May. So the next 100K came in just 22 days!

Thanks to all contributors for a meaningful, valuable and respectful dialogue. All the best!
Congratulations Q! I have been following this forum since last week. I didn't know until last week this forum exists. Every month when the visa bulletin releases, I read some forums, and feel they don't have enough information. Last week I saw Q's post in one of the trackitt's thread and followed to here. Just few minutes after entering forum, I was amazed with the amount of USEFUL info. I spent couple of hours on that day and next day I want to show this forum to my friend, but it took 30 minutes to search on Google to find this forum. One of the major problem for me was remembering the name of the website. Another thing is unfortunately Google didn't return any results from this forum for the popular searches like july visa predictions, eb2 visa predictions etc... For the past one week, I am trying to do my best to spread the word about this forum (now I am suggesting my friends to search "Q's immigration blog" on Google). Hats off to the wonderful forum, I am glad that I found this atleast now! Thanks to Q, Veni and Spec for the valuable information. My sincere suggestion for this forum is, it needs some Search Engine Optimization. Then it will sure reach 1M views very soon. I was a silent viewer till today, and after seeing Q's post I registered to post this. Once again thank you for a WONDERFUL forum.

[ssvp22]

Frankly it's a great blog. I was watching quietly before, but I feel I should post something, so I registered an account today. I am sure many others are watching quietly. Thank you for providing such a nice forum to discuss about GC issues. @qblogfan not to sound rude, but this is really a forum. Blog definition - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blog

[veni001]

gcwait,

Thanks for the first hand experience. That is quite useful.

Even in this case, the PERM themselves (and therefore the I-485) would still have a PD of May, June or July wouldn't they?

So any August PD cases should not be considered as filed under the July VB. I still can't understand why there are ANY August 2007 PD cases in the Inventory at all, given the memo discussed earlier.

I might consider replacing the End of July table with one to August 17, 2007 decision date, since it does make quite a big difference to the July 2007 PD numbers. I can put a note about the August cases.

What do others think?

Appreciate a fairly quick reply, because I will be out of the loop for a week beginning on Saturday and unable to update anything.

Spec,
During 2007, lot of PERM cases got approved within a week upon receiving(electronic) at DOL. So there are cases applied between 01AUG2007(Wednesday) - 15AUG2007 and received approvals between 08AUG2007 - 15AUG2007.

In some cases, as gcwait pointed, attorneys took calculated risk in submitting 140 & 485 without the actual PERM approval and provided copy of labor approval to USCIS upon receiving RFE.

[Spectator]

Spec,
During 2007, lot of PERM cases got approved within a week upon receiving(electronic) at DOL. So there are cases applied between 01AUG2007(Wednesday) - 15AUG2007 and received approvals between 08AUG2007 - 15AUG2007.

In some cases, as gcwait pointed, attorneys took calculated risk in submitting 140 & 485 without the actual PERM approval and provided copy of labor approval to USCIS upon receiving RFE.
Veni,

I understand that, but although it is fine to have the Decision Date in August, there should be no August PDs accepted.

I accept that there should be more 2007 cases up to July 2007 PDs because of that. It is probably worth updating the table for that alone.

But I-140/I485 with August PD should not have been Current according to the memo. The August 2007 VB was published on July 13, 2007 and showed all Categories as Unavailable.

What is still weird is the fact that there are any August PD cases on the Inventory at all. The memo only allowed applicants who were Current in the original July VB to apply up to 17th August, so there should not have been any August PDs, since they were (by definition) not Current in the July VB and the VB retrogressed in August 2007. Otherwise, they were Current before before even the PERM was submitted!

It is a fact that some Aug 2007 cases do appear in the Inventory, but they appear to have been mistakenly accepted based on what the memo actually says. http://www.murthy.com/uscis_update.pdf

It is just one of those quirks.

[baba2s]

I am also an silent reader of this forum. I started reading this thread from IV days.
Thanks to Q, Teedy, vini, spec and others for such wonderful info.

Last week i got my GC still can't resist reading this forum daily and help some of my friends.

As sssbpgmgc said, there ares some free ways to add our site to search engines..

Q, can you pls check this link for 'free url submission on google, yahoo...'

http://www.submitexpress.com/free-submission.html




Congratulations Q! I have been following this forum since last week. I didn't know until last week this forum exists. Every month when the visa bulletin releases, I read some forums, and feel they don't have enough information. Last week I saw Q's post in one of the trackitt's thread and followed to here. Just few minutes after entering forum, I was amazed with the amount of USEFUL info. I spent couple of hours on that day and next day I want to show this forum to my friend, but it took 30 minutes to search on Google to find this forum. One of the major problem for me was remembering the name of the website. Another thing is unfortunately Google didn't return any results from this forum for the popular searches like july visa predictions, eb2 visa predictions etc... For the past one week, I am trying to do my best to spread the word about this forum (now I am suggesting my friends to search "Q's immigration blog" on Google). Hats off to the wonderful forum, I am glad that I found this atleast now! Thanks to Q, Veni and Spec for the valuable information. My sincere suggestion for this forum is, it needs some Search Engine Optimization. Then it will sure reach 1M views very soon. I was a silent viewer till today, and after seeing Q's post I registered to post this. Once again thank you for a WONDERFUL forum.

[veni001]

Veni,

I understand that, but although it is fine to have the Decision Date in August, there should be no August PDs accepted.

I accept that there should be more 2007 cases up to July 2007 PDs because of that. It is probably worth updating the table for that alone.

But I-140/I485 with August PD should not have been Current according to the memo. The August 2007 VB was published on July 13, 2007 and showed all Categories as Unavailable.

What is still weird is the fact that there are any August PD cases on the Inventory at all. The memo only allowed applicants who were Current in the original July VB to apply up to 17th August, so there should not have been any August PDs, since they were (by definition) not Current in the July VB and the VB retrogressed in August 2007. Otherwise, they were Current before before even the PERM was submitted!

It is a fact that some Aug 2007 cases do appear in the Inventory, but they appear to have been mistakenly accepted based on what the memo actually says. http://www.murthy.com/uscis_update.pdf

It is just one of those quirks.

Spec,
Either that or those filed on July 30/31,2007 (Fee change) are grouped under August for USCIS convenience in the report?

[Spectator]

Spec,
Either that or those filed on July 30/31,2007 (Fee change) are grouped under August for USCIS convenience in the report?

I have now updated the post to reflect Decision dates later than August 17, 2007. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29

After the recent conversations, I believe it reflects reality better. I think that shows the power of the forum.

If the consensus is that this is wrong, it is a trivial matter to return it to Decision Dates later than July 31, 2007, but as tonyromo mentioned, the numbers for July 2007 prior to July 31, 2007 then look quite stupid. The change doesn't entirely address that criticism, but does at least go part way to it.

[dreamGC]

Hi Saky007,
Can you post the IV link? I don't find any such entry.

Thanks

<< Saky007 said

NVC letter to send payment for EB2I PD June 12, 2008

A user posted on IV that their lawyer received a mail around a month ago from NVC to pay filing fees. Exciting !!
>>

[tonyromo]

Spec,

Thanks ! It really reflects reality much better now. Just for an example if my PD was july 15 2007 and I got perm approved on Aug 10, I would have definetly filed for I-485.

On the side note, did you notice the effect this change has done to PWMB numbers. Now total PWMB perms (talking cut off date of July 31st) from your table for IC is 3651 only. Considering EB2:EB3 ratio as 70:30 and 2.1 as primary to dependant ratio for EB2 and having 100% approval rate at I-140 stage, we have PWMB numbers as 5.3K max. (Instead of 7-8K PWMB numbers we have calculated before).

Let us know your thoughts !

On the other note, only recently I have started looking into whole immigration process. I would like to mention that there is no single source of information better than this website when it comes to EB immigration. Thanks to you, Q, veni, Teddy ...etc. !!


I have now updated the post to reflect Decision dates later than August 17, 2007. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29

After the recent conversations, I believe it reflects reality better. I think that shows the power of the forum.

If the consensus is that this is wrong, it is a trivial matter to return it to Decision Dates later than July 31, 2007, but as tonyromo mentioned, the numbers for July 2007 prior to July 31, 2007 then look quite stupid. The change doesn't entirely address that criticism, but does at least go part way to it.

[saky007]

Folks,

With all due respect to these 'my friend received letter' and ' my friend's friend received a letter', can we start a new thread and use that thread for such comments.
I know I would have had some comments that are out-of-place on this thread, but Admin can feel free to remove all these comments.

Since these pages are getting filled up so fast over the last month, I'm worried that if I'm missing out on some thing here:) Hope you can understand my pain :)

Nothing personal, just my own opinion

Best Regards!

Edit by Spec ;- I have moved the posts, but I don't want to create another post saying so.

PD's of folks getting NVC letters gives a sense of what DOS/NVC intends to do in the coming months. In that context, these comments are relevant to the predictions thread.

[Spectator]

PD's of folks getting NVC letters gives a sense of what DOS/NVC intends to do in the coming months. In that context, these comments are relevant to the predictions thread.

I partly agree with you.

What DOS is doing with CP cases is very important and has a place in this thread for the very reasons you have outlined.

I have left at least two recent comments on the subject in this thread for that reason.

Have I gone too far? Possibly. The original posts can now be found here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?87-Consular-Processing-and-NVC-Receipt-Requests

I'll leave Q to make a final decision. It is very easy to restore the posts to this thread.

I have also moved a discussion about Educational Requirements (including my own post) to Extracted Discussion & Q&As For Reading

It is a difficult balancing act. Forgive me if I have got it wrong. It is easy to do.

[saky007]

I partly agree with you.

What DOS is doing with CP cases is very important and has a place in this thread for the very reasons you have outlined.

I have left at least two recent comments on the subject in this thread for that reason.

Have I gone too far? Possibly. The original posts can now be found here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?87-Consular-Processing-and-NVC-Receipt-Requests

I'll leave Q to make a final decision. It is very easy to restore the posts to this thread.

I have also moved a discussion about Educational Requirements (including my own post) to Extracted Discussion & Q&As For Reading

It is a difficult balancing act. Forgive me if I have got it wrong. It is easy to do.

No problem. As long as folks can go to some place on this forum to get this information, that should be sufficient.

[bieber]

saky007

as someone asked, if possible please provide the thread name and page no of iv related information

[Spectator]

I compared 2007 perm Certifications from Spec's Perm breakdown thread VS total I-485 submissions from inventory. I took the available break down data and guestimated for the perm certifications after aug 17/07
Kanmani,

I wouldn't use the figures from the original August 2009 Inventory. USCIS admitted there were errors.

There are pros and cons to which other Inventory you use.

Unfortunately, there is no way of knowing whether the Inventory is complete. Some cases might still be at LO, especially in EB3.

For EB3 in particular, you need to increase the Inventory numbers to account for CP cases, or your ratios will be wrong.

The EB3 rates are China - 30 to 50% and India - 12-15%. 1 or 2% is about right for EB2 cases.

Hope that helps.

[qesehmk]

Its ok since this is somewhat relevant. Keeping this discussion on this main thread is useful until we establish a solid understanding of the topic. It might be a good idea to move it to a separate thread (existing or new) for people to go and refer too.

Spec feel free to do it or let me know when to do it.



I partly agree with you.

What DOS is doing with CP cases is very important and has a place in this thread for the very reasons you have outlined.

I have left at least two recent comments on the subject in this thread for that reason.

Have I gone too far? Possibly. The original posts can now be found here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?87-Consular-Processing-and-NVC-Receipt-Requests

I'll leave Q to make a final decision. It is very easy to restore the posts to this thread.

I have also moved a discussion about Educational Requirements (including my own post) to Extracted Discussion & Q&As For Reading

It is a difficult balancing act. Forgive me if I have got it wrong. It is easy to do.

[self.coach]

My EB-2 priority date is August 2009.
1) When do you gurus think I be able to apply for i-485, and
2) Get greencard?

I just joined this forum and you guys are simply awsome (not to mention that I dont understand any of this math)!

[Spectator]

Its ok since this is somewhat relevant. Keeping this discussion on this main thread is useful until we establish a solid understanding of the topic. It might be a good idea to move it to a separate thread (existing or new) for people to go and refer too.

Spec feel free to do it or let me know when to do it.Q,

It is already done. See the new thread here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?87-Consular-Processing-and-NVC-Receipt-Requests

If you think I have been too zealous, or the discussions should have been moved at a later date, then feel free to move them back.

It was not an easy decision anyway, so I certainly wouldn't be upset. I can see both sides of the "argument".

I have left a couple of posts in the original thread so that the topic is not sidelined - it is very important to the predictions.

[qesehmk]

Spec ... we seem to be beating this to death. So thats fine. NExt time somebody has questions ... we can point him/her to the new location. Thanks for moving the topic to an offline thread.

p.s. - I think this scheme works the best. Lets discuss everything under this thread nad once the topic is well established we can move to a more relevant threat that acts as depository of knowledge.


Q,

It is already done. See the new thread here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?87-Consular-Processing-and-NVC-Receipt-Requests

If you think I have been too zealous, or the discussions should have been moved at a later date, then feel free to move them back.

It was not an easy decision anyway, so I certainly wouldn't be upset. I can see both sides of the "argument".

I have left a couple of posts in the original thread so that the topic is not sidelined - it is very important to the predictions.

[bieber]

Q

if your source reveals that dates will be C and it happens, then we will hit 1million mark in matter of days i guess :)

[qesehmk]

And if the info turns out wrong then we will get 1 million "Joote" !!


Q, if your source reveals that dates will be C and it happens, then we will hit 1million mark in matter of days i guess :)


sssbpgmgc (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/member.php?982-sssbpgmgc), thanks for your information. I have submitted the site for SEO. Lets see if that helps. Also appreciate you referring to friends.

baba2, big congrats on your GC!! Also feel sorry that we may not see you around as much. But appreciate taking the time and penning down a few words. Everything helps! We are all quite weary here!!

[saky007]

saky007

as someone asked, if possible please provide the thread name and page no of iv related information

Page 170 of the EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II).. thread.

[leo07]

I kind of agree with your argument too. My worry was more about false posts which we don't have a way of validating the information. If we start going that path there could be more of those. No worries, I had deleted my posts.

PD's of folks getting NVC letters gives a sense of what DOS/NVC intends to do in the coming months. In that context, these comments are relevant to the predictions thread.

[bieber]

Page 170 of the EB2-EB3 Predictions (Rather Calculations II).. thread.

I could locate the post meanwhile, thanks

it looks like they sent this notice after june bulletin, if this keeps happening Dec2008 may be the possibility

[ChampU]

I could locate the post meanwhile, thanks

it looks like they sent this notice after june bulletin, if this keeps happening Dec2008 may be the possibility

That would be awesome!!

Can we have a "like" button on the forum like they have on facebook??

[ssvp22]

I suspect there might be some SEO option that you might have disabled in VBulletin as part of the initial install(going by my experience with Wordpress). Also Google PageRank for this post - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29 - is 0, which is really strange in my opinion. There ought to be some SEO setting that is disabled right now.

And if the info turns out wrong then we will get 1 million "Joote" !!




sssbpgmgc (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/member.php?982-sssbpgmgc), thanks for your information. I have submitted the site for SEO. Lets see if that helps. Also appreciate you referring to friends.

baba2, big congrats on your GC!! Also feel sorry that we may not see you around as much. But appreciate taking the time and penning down a few words. Everything helps! We are all quite weary here!!

[desi4green]

First of all before I start with my question, let me tell you that I didnt know about this blog until day before yesterday when I saw Q's post on Trackitt. After reading through this discussion (read through atleast few pages of this topic) I have to hand it that you guys have quite good understanding of the H1 + GC + issues. Keep it up.

Here is my question. Its about PWMB's (People Who missed the boat) -> people who missed filling completely or missed their dependents. I have heard over and over that if they push the date to August 2007, we will have suddent surge of all the PWMB. Is that accurate statement. As they moved the date forward, wouldnt some if not most PWMB would have filed when their date became current. May be I dont understand the topic. What are your thoughts on this?

FYI... I am a EB2I PD: Dec 2007

[imechanix]

First of all before I start with my question, let me tell you that I didnt know about this blog until day before yesterday when I saw Q's post on Trackitt. After reading through this discussion (read through atleast few pages of this topic) I have to hand it that you guys have quite good understanding of the H1 + GC + issues. Keep it up.

Here is my question. Its about PWMB's (People Who missed the boat) -> people who missed filling completely or missed their dependents. I have heard over and over that if they push the date to August 2007, we will have suddent surge of all the PWMB. Is that accurate statement. As they moved the date forward, wouldnt some if not most PWMB would have filed when their date became current. May be I dont understand the topic. What are your thoughts on this?

FYI... I am a EB2I PD: Dec 2007

Yes, there will be a surge in PWMB if the dates reach Aug 2007 in next VB. It takes about 6 months to approve 485. So, it is highly unlikely that PWMB will get approved in FY 2011. Hence, there is an estimation of around 5K PWMB demand that will be added in FY 2012 which most likely is going to retrogress the VB dates post Sep 2011.

[pch053]

Most of the PWMB's have their PDs in the range of Jan'07 - July'07 and even within this range the significant # of PWMB's will be in the later half (i.e. with PDs around May - June - July'07). Since the current PD for EB2-I is March'07, most of the PWMB's haven't got the opportunity to file their I485 yet. However, if the dates move past July - Aug'07 in the next two bulletins, all the PWMB's will have the chance to file their I485 and that being the reason for the surge of PWMB's.

[imechanix]

Hypothetically,
1. If EB3 porting number is around 250 per month, and
2. All the ported applications are pre 2007, and
3. Every month 250 ported applications are approved

Then,
Is it possible that starting FY2012, EB2-India dates will retrogress in 2006 & will never reach 2007 atleast in first 3 quarters due to per country IC limit ~ 250 visas.

[qblogfan]

It's great news! thanks for sharing!

[qblogfan]

It is great news! I found the same information on IV.


That would be awesome!!

Can we have a "like" button on the forum like they have on facebook??

[qblogfan]

I agree and I support your decision.


Its ok since this is somewhat relevant. Keeping this discussion on this main thread is useful until we establish a solid understanding of the topic. It might be a good idea to move it to a separate thread (existing or new) for people to go and refer too.

Spec feel free to do it or let me know when to do it.

[gcforever]

Q,

It has lot to do with timing. People get more excited when PDs move fast and start looking for as much information as possible.


A quick note. Sometime in last couple of hours this thread surpassed 300K views. What's interesting is we had passed 200K just on 24th May. So the next 100K came in just 22 days!

Thanks to all contributors for a meaningful, valuable and respectful dialogue. All the best!

[bieber]

this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name :)

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html

[leo07]

the least they could do is to give credit. I guess, they did it anyways:)
this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name :)

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html

[leo07]

Congrats Baba. Thanks for the information.


Last week i got my GC still can't resist reading this forum daily and help some of my friends.

http://www.submitexpress.com/free-submission.html

[qesehmk]

We already have one. Dont we? Pls check the right hand side top place in the menu bar. Or right near the words "welcome" at the top ther should be a facebook connect. Once you connect you will see the like button.


That would be awesome!!

Can we have a "like" button on the forum like they have on facebook??

Thanks ssvp. How did you find out the pagerank is zero?

I suspect there might be some SEO option that you might have disabled in VBulletin as part of the initial install(going by my experience with Wordpress). Also Google PageRank for this post - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?4-EB2-Predictions-%28Rather-Calculations%29 - is 0, which is really strange in my opinion. There ought to be some SEO setting that is disabled right now.

[gcwait2007]

this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name :)

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html

Q seems to be Q Chang ;) :D

[qesehmk]

You almost got it right. Its Quing Quong!

Apologies to my chinese friends!


Q seems to be Q Chang ;) :D

[ssvp22]

Thanks ssvp. How did you find out the pagerank is zero?
On Google Chrome, you can install following extension - https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/pneoplpmnpjoioldpodoljacigkahohc?hl=en-US . Actually page rank is not 0. Its just not set. I think there might be issues in the way the url is built since i have never really seen urls like this before. Google Webmaster can help find issues - http://www.google.com/webmasters/ - but i cannot be too sure of that.

[Spectator]

For anyone interested, the number of EB2-I Trackitt approvals for June has now exceeded the total for the whole of May.

On the other hand, approvals tailed off dramatically in the second half of May, although I don't expect that to happen this month.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your hard work! It's very good data analysis.



For anyone interested, the number of EB2-I Trackitt approvals for June has now exceeded the total for the whole of May.

On the other hand, approvals tailed off dramatically in the second half of May, although I don't expect that to happen this month.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010

[tanu_75]

this chinese website copied content and forgot to remove Q's name :)

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31189769.html

Thanks for the conspiracy theory. For what it's worth, Q's blog didn't exist then. He/She was still on the IV thread he had started and the Chinese website's thread does mention that this is IV's prediction right in the title. Besides, most of these websites don't allow you to link directly to another website.

[qesehmk]

I am sure Bieber said it jokingly. Our efforts though mostly helpful to EB2I, are not restricted to Indians only. If chinese find value in it, they are welcome to learn and benefit.

To be fair with MITTABS website, once we complained about not being properly credited, they have mostly given us the credit for any information they have reproduced. Anyway ... but lets move on. Its not worth arguing over.

p.s. - I just want to reiterate that either this website or the work done on IV was all a team effort. Many people contributed then and many people contribute now. Just want to make sure all of us generally insist on collective credit - unless of course when somebody contributes very specific things.


Thanks for the conspiracy theory. For what it's worth, Q's blog didn't exist then. He/She was still on the IV thread he had started and the Chinese website's thread does mention that this is IV's prediction right in the title. Besides, most of these websites don't allow you to link directly to another website.

[bieber]

Thanks for the conspiracy theory. For what it's worth, Q's blog didn't exist then. He/She was still on the IV thread he had started and the Chinese website's thread does mention that this is IV's prediction right in the title. Besides, most of these websites don't allow you to link directly to another website.

Conspiracy theory, such a loaded word. as Q mentioned I did not post that seriously at least I don't use smiley if I'm serious about something .

[veni001]

I140: (EB1-3 Primary)
NSC – 4.0 months
TSC – 7.5 months
VSC – 39.5 months
USCIS National Goal = 4.0 months
USCIS National Average = 17.0 months

EBI485:
CSC – 4.0 months
NSC – 4.9 months
TSC – 6.0 months
VSC – 5.6 months
USCIS National Goal = 4.0 months
USCIS National Average = 4.8 months

I360: (EB4 Primary)
CSC – 5.0 months
NSC – 5.0 months
TSC – 9.1 months
VSC – 5.0 months
USCIS National Goal = 5.0 months
USCIS National Average = 5.0 months

I526: (EB5 Primary)
CSC – 5.0 months
NSC – 5.0 months
TSC – 31.4 months
VSC – 5.0 months
USCIS National Goal = 5.0 months
USCIS National Average = 11.3 months


CSC – California Service Center
NSC – Nebraska Service Center
TSC – Texas Service Center
VSC – Vermont Service Center

[qesehmk]

That's a nice compilation Veni. May be worthwhile mentioning which date is being processed today. Also this is worthy of copying to facts and data section.
I140: (EB1-3 Primary)
NSC – 4.0 months
TSC – 7.5 months
VSC – 39.5 months
........

[qblogfan]

yes, agree, we should be friendly on this forum. It's not a big deal and keep cool!



I think anyone who comeacross Q's forum, they can immediately find a friendliness , which is very rare . Let us hope to maintain the same forever.

[veni001]

That's a nice compilation Veni. May be worthwhile mentioning which date is being processed today. Also this is worthy of copying to facts and data section.

Q,
Will post it in FACTS AND DATA section, we can update it on a regular basis to see how fast or slow the inventory is moving.

USCIS is not providing the receipt date they are processing for all application types, when ever available we can post it here.

[qesehmk]

Thanks. I think when they provide a range (e.g. 3 months) it means for all applications it will take 3 months to process. When they provide a date .... it means they are backlogged and they are processing applications only prior to that date. Correct me if I am wrong.


Q,
Will post it in FACTS AND DATA, we can update it on a regular basis to see how fast or slow the inventory is moving.

USCIS is not providing the receipt date they are processing for all application types, when ever available we can post it here.

[veni001]

Thanks. I think when they provide a range (e.g. 3 months) it means for all applications it will take 3 months to process. When they provide a date .... it means they are backlogged and they are processing applications only prior to that date. Correct me if I am wrong.

Q,
I think you are absolutely correct.

[Spectator]

Veni,

Can I introduce a slight note of caution in using simple averages across all the Service Centers.

I-140s are only dealt with by NSC and TSC these days. There are historic outliers, but VSC only had 4 cases in March 2011 and CSC had none.

Whilst the average shows 17 months because of the VSC 39.5 months, a weighted average would show a different picture.

Similarly, for I485, NSC and TSC now handle all EB cases, but they don't ONLY handle EB cases.

Can I recommend this document http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35245 which I referenced in Significant Sources of Data for use in Calculations http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?66-Significant-Sources-of-Data-for-use-in-Calculations

Buried in the document is some fantastic information about what each of the Service Centers handle (and what they do not).

[veni001]

Veni,

Can I introduce a slight note of caution in using simple averages across all the Service Centers.

I-140s are only dealt with by NSC and TSC these days. There are historic outliers, but VSC only had 4 cases in March 2011 and CSC had none.

Whilst the average shows 17 months because of the VSC 39.5 months, a weighted average would show a different picture.

Similarly, for I485, NSC and TSC now handle all EB cases, but they don't ONLY handle EB cases.

Can I recommend this document http://www.aila.org/content/default.aspx?docid=35245 which I referenced in Significant Sources of Data for use in Calculations http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?66-Significant-Sources-of-Data-for-use-in-Calculations

Buried in the document is some fantastic information about what each of the Service Centers handle (and what they do not).

Spec,
Good information, I have made changes to the processing times post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?92-USCIS-Processing-Times)in FACTS AND DATA section.
I have deleted national averages (agree doesn't make much sense) and only left respective processing centers under each category.

[Spectator]

Veni,

Good Stuff.

I know USCIS are starting a trial of a more real time system. It will be interesting if we can see the difference that makes.

[dokuparthi]

Hi Gurus,

My PD is 19 May 2008 in EB2 Category India. Can any one tell when can I expect my PD is current.

Thank,
Enjoy007

[Zoroark]

You will be able to file for EAD during Jul-Sep 2012 and 100% chance of getting GC between Jul-Sep 2013.




Hi Gurus,

My PD is 19 May 2008 in EB2 Category India. Can any one tell when can I expect my PD is current.

Thank,
Enjoy007

[nishant2200]

You will be able to file for EAD during Jul-Sep 2012 and 100% chance of getting green card between Jun-Aug 2013.

I agree.

Mine is Nov 2007, good Lord, bless me this year and at least get me the EAD.

[qblogfan]

My PD is Jan 2008. Bless me this year and at least get me the EAD/AP.



I agree.

Mine is Nov 2007, good Lord, bless me this year and at least get me the EAD.

[qblogfan]

I think he has some chance of filing EAD in this summer.



You will be able to file for EAD during Jul-Sep 2012 and 100% chance of getting GC between Jul-Sep 2013.

[makmohan]

If the date passes Aug 2007 (or the last date when people could file 485 during the 2007 fiasco) during this year by September or any bulletin; then there are no 485 filings. Will the dates become current then or the dates will still be moved on a month-to-month basis?
I think the PERMs really dip south only in 2009 so there will be significant (yet unknown) number of filings in rest of 2007 and 2008.

- makmohan

[veni001]

If the date passes Aug 2007 (or the last date when people could file 485 during the 2007 fiasco) during this year by September or any bulletin; then there are no 485 filings. Will the dates become current then or the dates will still be moved on a month-to-month basis?
I think the PERMs really dip south only in 2009 so there will be significant (yet unknown) number of filings in rest of 2007 and 2008.

- makmohan

makmohan,
Please check PWMB and AUG-DEC 2007 PERM numbers (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29)(and beyond) posted in FACTS AND DATA section. You can apply EB2:EB3 factor (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?59-Prevailing-Wage-Dertermination-Data-Analysis)to PERM numbers and 485 ratio (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-%28From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics%29)to estimate expected EB2IC new demand based PD progression in the next couple of months.

Depending where EB2IC PD is going to be set in SEPT2011 VB either dates will stagnate if not retrogress to a point where USCIS can use FY 2012 EB2I regular quota in the first two quarters!

[ifaith]

Spec,
Good information, I have made changes to the processing times post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?92-USCIS-Processing-Times)in FACTS AND DATA section.
I have deleted national averages (agree doesn't make much sense) and only left respective processing centers under each category.
Hi Veni
Does the processing time for 485 means it is taking 5 months or 6 months depending on the center for new applications(PWMB) or is it for the pre adjudicated cases?

Thanks

[veni001]

Hi Veni
Does the processing time for 485 means it is taking 5 months or 6 months depending on the center for new applications(PWMB) or is it for the pre adjudicated cases?

Thanks

ifaith,
It is for the new applications including EB1 and EB2ROW.

[makmohan]

Depending where EB2IC PD is going to be set in SEPT2011 VB either dates will stagnate if not retrogress to a point where USCIS can use FY 2012 EB2I regular quota in the first two quarters!

Thanks for the information, veni.
Assuming that USCIS has processed everyone till Aug 2007, as USCIS does not have any information about future 485 demand (as no one from IC filed 485 and no one is pre-adjudicated). Will they be making dates current then or there is something I am missing?
- mahmohan

[veni001]

Thanks for the information, veni.
Assuming that USCIS has processed everyone till Aug 2007, as USCIS does not have any information about future 485 demand (as no one from IC filed 485 and no one is pre-adjudicated). Will they be making dates current then or there is something I am missing?
- mahmohan

makmohan,
This was extensively discussed here before. Unlike in 2007 USCIS/DOS are coordinating together in setting monthly cutoff dates now, and also they have more visibility in to the data and expected demand.So we are believing that they will move EB2IC dates in controlled fashing, moving forward, rather than making cureent. But you will never now!

[qblogfan]

I found a post on the Chinese immigration website. I think it is an interesting post. If you guys think it's not good to post it here. Please remove. I just want to share this information with you guys. It has a strong indication of future PD movement.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31336477.html

In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
and PD movement.

I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
several months.

I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
online.

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicationSubCategoryId=64

In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.
At that time FB4 Phillipine VB date was 12/7/1987. He/she asked an attorney
online and this attorney said that he/she may have to wait for years to get
current. The attorney said it was surprising to know NVC sent fee notice so
early because he/she thought this case would not be current for years.

This attorney said: "In the past, the NVC would typically send out the
paperwork a few months before the priority date is current— not years
before, as they are apparently doing now."

In August 2010, the VB was released and Phillipine FB4 PD moved from 1987 to
1//1/1990!

NVC fee notice is definitely connected to the future VB movement. NVC will
not send out these notices if they don't think these cases can be current in
several months!

[veni001]

I found a post on the Chinese immigration website. I think it is an interesting post. If you guys think it's not good to post it here. Please remove. I just want to share this information with you guys. It has a strong indication of future PD movement.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31336477.html

In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
and PD movement.

I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
several months.

I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
online.

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx...1561&publicati

In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.
At that time FB4 Phillipine VB date was 12/7/1987. He/she asked an attorney
online and this attorney said that he/she may have to wait for years to get
current. The attorney said it was surprising to know NVC sent fee notice so
early because he/she thought this case would not be current for years.

This attorney said: "In the past, the NVC would typically send out the
paperwork a few months before the priority date is current— not years
before, as they are apparently doing now."

In August 2010, the VB was released and Phillipine FB4 PD moved from 1987 to
1//1/1990!

NVC fee notice is definitely connected to the future VB movement. NVC will
not send out these notices if they don't think these cases can be current in
several months!

qblogfan,
Good info, thanks for posting.

[qesehmk]

Thanks for sharing .... No worries with quoting the source. That's the way to do it.

It is high time EB2I is made current so that people can start filing. (Realistically 1 Yr movement though is more probable).


I found a post on the Chinese immigration website. I think it is an interesting post. If you guys think it's not good to post it here. Please remove. I just want to share this information with you guys. It has a strong indication of future PD movement.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31336477.html

In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
and PD movement.

I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
several months.

I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
online.

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx...1561&publicati
............

[Spectator]

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the April figures.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm

[makmohan]

veni, I see. Got it. Thanks very much. It just adds more uncertainty even to be able to file EAD. If they go in controlled manner, my PD being April 08, the real predictable relief will come in or after July 2012. But we never know!

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your kind understanding and support.



Thanks for sharing .... No worries with quoting the source. That's the way to do it.

It is high time EB2I is made current so that people can start filing. (Realistically 1 Yr movement though is more probable).

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your kind words. I am glad you liked this post.


qblogfan,
Good info, thanks for posting.

[ChampU]

I found a post on the Chinese immigration website. I think it is an interesting post. If you guys think it's not good to post it here. Please remove. I just want to share this information with you guys. It has a strong indication of future PD movement.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31336477.html

In this weekend I did further analysis of the relationship of NVC fee notice
and PD movement.

I have an interesting finding: In this summer the EB2 will definitely move
to April 2008 or further! NVC is not sending these fee notices randomly.
They won't send fee notices until they think it is going to be current in
several months.

I searched more topics about NVC fee notice and came cross this article
online.

http://www.philstar.com/Article.aspx?articleId=571561&publicationSubCategoryId=64

In May 2010, a Phillipine FB4 case got fee notice and he/she has PD of 1989.
At that time FB4 Phillipine VB date was 12/7/1987. He/she asked an attorney
online and this attorney said that he/she may have to wait for years to get
current. The attorney said it was surprising to know NVC sent fee notice so
early because he/she thought this case would not be current for years.

This attorney said: "In the past, the NVC would typically send out the
paperwork a few months before the priority date is current— not years
before, as they are apparently doing now."

In August 2010, the VB was released and Phillipine FB4 PD moved from 1987 to
1//1/1990!

NVC fee notice is definitely connected to the future VB movement. NVC will
not send out these notices if they don't think these cases can be current in
several months!

1987??
There are times when I crib and fret about my PD moving slow.. someone has been waiting for over 2 decades.. makes me feel lucky and good about where I am at..

[qblogfan]

Yes, I agree. At the same time, I feel sad for this family. EB2-C&I should feel lucky.

FB4 is the slowest category in family based green card. I checked the visa bullitens to verify this post. The PD of PH FB4 was in 1987 in May 2010 VB and it moved to 1/1/1991. It is accurate. For the phillipines they were surprised to receive NVC notice in May 2010, but the PD did move into 1991 in September 2010. It is very possbiel DOS notified NVC the PD movement in advance. I believe they already have a preliminery list of dates. At the same time, these dates are the most conservative dates they determined. In another word, CO's office is confident that the PD will move to at least those dates on their list. Just my two cents.

May 2010-1987 (DOS realized the demand was not enough, notified NVC)

Sep 2010-1/1/1991 (many new cases rushed into their system)

Oct/Nov 2010-4/1/1991 (sticked to 1991 because not many cases were ready to use visa number, newly submitted case takes 3-4 months to become demand)

Dec 2010-1/1/1988 (they got enough cases ready for approval, then retrogress)

July 2011-5/15/1988



1987??
There are times when I crib and fret about my PD moving slow.. someone has been waiting for over 2 decades.. makes me feel lucky and good about where I am at..

[Spectator]

It seems clear, or is at least increasingly unlikely, that DOS are not going to publish this data.

I wonder if we will see it again this year.

Possibly, it is a telling omission. DOS can move the dates with no visibility into the process, not that there is much anyway.

[pch053]

Does anyone know the latest PD for which one has received NVC fee notice (from different forums)? Going by the above example in the FB-4 category, the PDs should move to at least the latest PD for which one has received the NVC fee notice in the next few months.

[qblogfan]

Only one case with PD June 2008 received fee notice. I am not sure whether it's false info. or not.

Several PD April 2008 got fee notice and it's more reliable.


Does anyone know the latest PD for which one has received NVC fee notice (from different forums)? Going by the above example in the FB-4 category, the PDs should move to at least the latest PD for which one has received the NVC fee notice in the next few months.

[pch053]

On a slightly unrelated note, the Dates Movement chart in the 1st page shows EB3-Mexico's likely PD to be July'11. I assume it is a typo error, since the current PD for EB3-Mexico is July'05.

[qblogfan]

A Chinese guy contacted Mr. Co and he replied:

http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html

Look at the attachment in English.


It seems clear, or is at least increasingly unlikely, that DOS are not going to publish this data.

I wonder if we will see it again this year.

Possibly, it is a telling omission. DOS can move the dates with no visibility into the process, not that there is much anyway.

[qesehmk]

It can only mean that they want to move dates at their own discretion. Generally this would be a bad news ... but in this case I think it bodes well for the retrogressed countries.


A Chinese guy contacted Mr. Co and he replied:

http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html

Look at the attachment in English.

[pch053]

Based on CO's input, I think we can see the employment demand numbers in the Aug bulletin (during early July), right?

[polapragada]

Well...my PD is Mar, 2008...LOL

recent 2 pages of discussions making me Excited!!!!

[Osaka001]

Thanks for the information, veni.
Assuming that USCIS has processed everyone till Aug 2007, as USCIS does not have any information about future 485 demand (as no one from IC filed 485 and no one is pre-adjudicated). Will they be making dates current then or there is something I am missing?
- mahmohan

Hi Mahmohan,

DOS is going to make it Current for next 2 bulletins for India & China, they are not going with any demand Data or the data USCIS has. better prepare for 2007 fiasco for EB2 this time.

[self.coach]

My priority date is August 2009.

Am I too optimistic in thinking that possibly in 2011 I will be able to apply for i-485 EAD and by 2012 I will get GC?

Please correct me (hopefully I am not horribly optimistic).

Appreciate it...you guys rock!

[makmohan]

Osaka,
USCIS/DOS are unpredictable; hence the probability of they making EB2IC categories current is same as they not making them current. Let's hope for the best though.
- makmohan

[qblogfan]

Yes, based on the email from CO, he will publish the demand data next month.



Based on CO's input, I think we can see the employment demand numbers in the Aug bulletin (during early July), right?

[qblogfan]

Yes, I agree.

It's hard to predict their next move. They always give people surprises.


Osaka,
USCIS/DOS are unpredictable; hence the probability of they making EB2IC categories current is same as they not making them current. Let's hope for the best though.
- makmohan

[vishnu]

"If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "Current"".

That statement is from:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

Now, lets assume that by August, they have cleared current backlog.
PWMBs and 2007 Sep - 2011 I-140s would not be considered documentarily qualified anyway. So purely on their own policies, wouldn't they need to make dates current. Or have I got this completely wrong?

[qblogfan]

I hope you can be current too. However, it's just some prediction and analysis. We have to watch for CO's next move. There are many GC gurus here and we should listen to what they say.


Well...my PD is Mar, 2008...LOL

recent 2 pages of discussions making me Excited!!!!

[qblogfan]

It's possible.

But now we are not sure whether the Spillover can clear all the demand yet.

If the spillover can clean up the demand, I think there is some chance to become current.


"If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "Current"".

That statement is from:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

Now, lets assume that by August, they have cleared current backlog.
PWMBs and 2007 Sep - 2011 I-140s would not be considered documentarily qualified anyway. So purely on their own policies, wouldn't they need to make dates current. Or have I got this completely wrong?

[mvinayam]

Hi,

Could somebody guide me where to see the attachment for the message in the below link.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html

Thanks

[neospeed]

Hi,

Could somebody guide me where to see the attachment for the message in the below link.

http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html

Thanks

http://www.mitbbs.com/article2/EB23/31329095_349.jpg

I hope that helps :)

[GCDespo]

It Says:

Demand Data:There were number of pressing issues going on at the time which demanded my attention leading up to the determination of the July dates. The posting of the employment demand is done strictly as a courtesy to the individuals who have an intrerest in that type od data.Had I taken time to update it last week that would have caused a delay in the determination /posting of the July dates. It will be published when the August dates are announced in early July.Further movement will be dependent upon the demand patterns between now and early July,and consultations with USCIS

[veni001]

The USCIS Dashboard has been updated with the April figures.

http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm

Thanks Spec,
i140 completions are almost exactly same as FY2010 (OCT - APR). But the pending application number is increasing month after month, which is not a good news for next year SOFAD!

[neospeed]

"If there are sufficient numbers in a particular category to satisfy all reported documentarily qualified demand, the category is considered "Current"".

That statement is from:
http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf

Now, lets assume that by August, they have cleared current backlog.
PWMBs and 2007 Sep - 2011 I-140s would not be considered documentarily qualified anyway. So purely on their own policies, wouldn't they need to make dates current. Or have I got this completely wrong?

I think they are going to move the dates until DEC 2007 or early 2008, so that they will have enough processed demand for the coming spill over season. Now a days dos and cis acting very cautiously regarding the date movements. Date movement to early 2008 + pwmb + porting will create enough demand for the next spillover season.

And also the spillover will be not that much for 2012 as the eb1 approvals getting diminished, this people will move to eb2 (row) which will eat up some of the spillover. In short there are so many moving variables dos and cis are monitoring going forward.

[veni001]

veni, I see. Got it. Thanks very much. It just adds more uncertainty even to be able to file EAD. If they go in controlled manner, my PD being April 08, the real predictable relief will come in or after July 2012. But we never know!

makmohan,
Assuming the sources providing NVC fee request e-mails are genuine, then EB2I&C should at least hit April 2008 before bouncing back into 2007.

[qblogfan]

I agree with Veni001. I think the current info. points to a date later than April 2008. Maybe Q1 and Q2 of 2008 will be able to submit 485. The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months. Almost all the folks already paid the fee.

Another news is that the same Chinese guy asked the CO office regarding the next VB. CO office replied that the PD in August VB will move forward for "several months". It was writen in Chinese, so I can't post the link here. "Several months" usually means more than three months. This Chinese guy has provided reliable information in the past. I think the next VB will reach July 2007. I mention this info here just for your reference.

Keep our fingers crossed.





makmohan,
Assuming the sources providing NVC fee request e-mails are genuine, then EB2I&C should at least hit April 2008 before bouncing back into 2007.

[qesehmk]

I don't mean to dispute or demean anybody. But these guys are simply copying our information and sometimes publishing as their own.

If you look back a few pages we broke info about VB which was shamelessly copied and circulated as their own. Thought you should know this since you are clearly unaware of this.



I agree with Veni001. I think the current info. points to a date later than April 2008. Maybe Q1 and Q2 of 2008 will be able to submit 485. The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months. Almost all the folks already paid the fee.

Another news is that the same Chinese guy asked the CO office regarding the next VB. CO office replied that the PD in August VB will move forward for "several months". It was writen in Chinese, so I can't post the link here. "Several months" usually means more than three months. This Chinese guy has provided reliable information in the past. I think the next VB will reach July 2007. I mention this info here just for your reference.

Keep our fingers crossed.

[bieber]

I think any date beyond Aug1 2007 is pure speculation, moving dates cautiously when you have known demand is entirely different from estimating the future demand and moving the dates.

They can control the date movement only if they have sufficient cases to pre adjudicate and know the exact demand, the rules to build pipeline should technically be as much as they can allow and timing is working out perfect. if they assign all the visa numbers and still some left there will be only 2 possibilites
1. make the date C and accept everyone
2. move the dates according to CP demand and try to give them visa and meanwhile build the inventory based on that date

I don't think DOS/CIS is against anybody and want to stop ppl in line, if there is a chance I believe they will let everyone apply

[qblogfan]

I have to apologize for this if they used the data from here without listing the reference. I will pass the message to them and ask them to add reference if they want to use any data from Q's forum.



I don't mean to dispute or demean anybody. But these guys are simply copying our information and sometimes publishing as their own.

If you look back a few pages we broke info about VB which was shamelessly copied and circulated as their own. Thought you should know this since you are clearly unaware of this.

[qesehmk]

That's ok. No apologies required from anybody.
Lets continue to focus on topics that are valuable to readers of this forum.


I have to apologize for this if they used the data from here without listing the reference. I will pass the message to them and ask them to add reference if they want to use any data from Q's forum.

[qblogfan]

Thanks for your kind understanding. I need to thank everyone for your hard work. I learnt a big deal from this forum.


That's ok. No apologies required from anybody.
Lets continue to focus on topics that are valuable to readers of this forum.

[neospeed]

I agree with Veni001. I think the current info. points to a date later than April 2008. Maybe Q1 and Q2 of 2008 will be able to submit 485. The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months. Almost all the folks already paid the fee.

Another news is that the same Chinese guy asked the CO office regarding the next VB. CO office replied that the PD in August VB will move forward for "several months". It was writen in Chinese, so I can't post the link here. "Several months" usually means more than three months. This Chinese guy has provided reliable information in the past. I think the next VB will reach July 2007. I mention this info here just for your reference.

Keep our fingers crossed.

Can you pls paste chinese link for the above information?

[qblogfan]

http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/EB23/31332681.html

It was writen in Chinese. If you use translator, you can find some info from it.




Can you pls paste chinese link for the above information?

[leo07]

The guy contacting CO might be real and the response from CO makes sense too. However, there is no doubt that he was acting on the information grabbed from this site.

Not that it should matter to me or anybody else, if only he could address/refer the source. Instead of passing it as his own.


I don't mean to dispute or demean anybody. But these guys are simply copying our information and sometimes publishing as their own.

If you look back a few pages we broke info about VB which was shamelessly copied and circulated as their own. Thought you should know this since you are clearly unaware of this.

[nayekal]

Referring the source is important and it should be mandatory. I read it some where in back pages before or after July VB, that this Chinese web site (http://www.mitbbs.com/article/EB23/31329095_3.html) mentioned what Q said earlier as their information and said Indians got the same info. It would be really great if they have mentioned Q's blog as the source.
But, I guess they are worried mentioning the source, thinking that viewers might join Q's blog instead of going to their site.

10 years ago, my Professor threatened me saying that he will give me E before gave me B, saying that I copied the info, but didn't give reference of the source.

[makmohan]

The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months.

I don't buy this NVC story. I have said the USCIS process is random not that it is foolish. Good mistakes like 2007 fiasco only happen once in lifetime. In last few years, I have seen so many rumors spreading each time that I no longer believe them.

- makmohan

[nishant2200]

I think the NVC fee is valid only for 12 months is not correct, what is correct is the notice you get from them, that is only valid for 12 months, you need to act on it, and pay up within 12 months, or that notice is expired.

[leo07]

On a lighter note...and with all due respect.

This is a completely different movie scene :) LOL


10 years ago, my Professor threatened me saying that he will give me E before gave me B, saying that I copied the info, but didn't give reference of the source.

[pch053]

I think the NVC fee is valid only for 12 months is not correct, what is correct is the notice you get from them, that is only valid for 12 months, you need to act on it, and pay up within 12 months, or that notice is expired.

I don't know the rule and so am I am just clarifying. Based on what you mention, if one pays the NVC fee anytime during the 1 year duration from receipt date of the notice, then the fee paid will remain valid for future I485 processing (irrespective of whether the I485 is processed within 12 months or not from the date of payment). To me this makes more sense, as even if someone's PD becomes current in year's time, it is not always guaranteed that the I485 will be adjudicated within that time window.

Thanks!

[veni001]

I think the NVC fee is valid only for 12 months is not correct, what is correct is the notice you get from them, that is only valid for 12 months, you need to act on it, and pay up within 12 months, or that notice is expired.

nishant2200,
I think you are correct, i found this old NVC DS-230 package (http://dakotaweb.net/immigration/forms/NVC_DS_230_Package.pdf) on the web. Please check language (bold) on page 2.

[nishant2200]

nishant2200,
I think you are correct, i found this old NVC DS-230 package (http://dakotaweb.net/immigration/forms/NVC_DS_230_Package.pdf) on the web. Please check language (bold) on page 2.

Excellent, I too was feverishly searching for proof, and I found something similar:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/28967711/Visa-Processing-Fee

this guy also has similar language on the second page. Nice to get confirmation of doubts. thank you.

[hoping4thebest]

Could anyone tell me how much was the total spillover received by EB2-IC during FY2010and FY2009. This is just for my curiosity. I couldnt find this in any of the recent posts and therefore sorry if this is a redundant question.

Adding another question which is actually why I asked above. So with a PD of Feb 2009, I see from the PERM data analysis that there are around 50k (if I take aggresive "factors" into my calc) to 63K (conservative "factors" in calc) ahead of me post July/Aug 2007. This year most of you Gurus estimate VB will go to early/mid 2008 by end of FY2011 and then retrogress. But what is likely to happen after that. I know it is difficult to predict too far out but was just curious on your insights.
Will we have to wait till Q3/Q4 of FY 2012 to see any benefits of SOFAD and even then will it be enough for dates to enter 2009? In other words will people like me with early 2009 PDs be in the situation same time next year as people with early-mid 2008 dates are today. Or will we not be that lucky and have to wait for FY2013 :(.

[veni001]

Could anyone tell me how much was the total spillover received by EB2-IC during FY2010and FY2009. This is just for my curiosity. I couldnt find this in any of the recent posts and therefore sorry if this is a redundant question.

hoping4thebest,

FY2009 - 7,545
FY2010 - 20,449

[leo07]

It could have been anywhere b/n 24k to 27k of SOFAD in the previous CIS-Year.

[qesehmk]

This kind of spillover tells you that wherever we end this year in terms of clearing the backlog, to clear next 1 year of backlog could take 1 or 2 years.

So the spillover this year could very well be 20-30 or even 40K. And next year it could be 6-10K or yet another 20K. It all depends on how much latent demand is sitting in labor 140 and 485 pipelines of EB2ROWMP and EB1.

That's what makes predictions difficult.


hoping4thebest,

FY2009 - 7,545
FY2010 - 20,449

[veni001]

This kind of spillover tells you that wherever we end this year in terms of clearing the backlog, to clear next 1 year of backlog could take 1 or 2 years.

So the spillover this year could very well be 20-30 or even 40K. And next year it could be 6-10K or yet another 20K. It all depends on how much latent demand is sitting in labor 140 and 485 pipelines of EB2ROWMP and EB1.

That's what makes predictions difficult.

Q,
Agree,pending inventories at the beginning of FY, processing times, new demand, economy....lot of variables.
All most all the time it is better not think beyond current FY!

[pch053]

I am curious to hear opinion from others regarding EB1 usage in future. This year, EB1 usage has decreased dramatically due to the Kazaran memo. I will assume that this reduction can be attributed to more stringent criteria for all EB1A, EB1B and EB1C categories. Do we expect the EB1 usage to be on the lower side (at least as compared to the previous years) in the coming years too? If the above memo is followed then my feeling is that EB1 usage will be similar to the current year. However, this may lead to more EB2-ROW cases and that will impact the spillover visas to EB2-I/C at the end; so, effectively decrease in EB1 usage and increase in EB2-ROW visas might just cancel out each other.

The other issue (as pointed out in earlier posts) that will be relevant is that we already have ~19K EB1 + EB2-ROW cases from the June inventory. There will surely be another 5K+ EB1 + EB2-ROW cases that will be submitted during the last quarter (July - Sep). So, overall we will have 25K+ (maybe 25K - 30K) pending EB1 + EB2-ROW applications already in the pipeline for next year by Oct'11. To me, this might indicate fewer spillovers for the next year, irrespective of EB1 and EB2-ROW usage in 2012.

[veni001]

I am curious to hear opinion from others regarding EB1 usage in future. This year, EB1 usage has decreased dramatically due to the Kazaran memo. I will assume that this reduction can be attributed to more stringent criteria for all EB1A, EB1B and EB1C categories. Do we expect the EB1 usage to be on the lower side (at least as compared to the previous years) in the coming years too? If the above memo is followed then my feeling is that EB1 usage will be similar to the current year. However, this may lead to more EB2-ROW cases and that will impact the spillover visas to EB2-I/C at the end; so, effectively decrease in EB1 usage and increase in EB2-ROW visas might just cancel out each other.

The other issue (as pointed out in earlier posts) that will be relevant is that we already have ~19K EB1 + EB2-ROW cases from the June inventory. There will surely be another 5K+ EB1 + EB2-ROW cases that will be submitted during the last quarter (July - Sep). So, overall we will have 25K+ (maybe 25K - 30K) pending EB1 + EB2-ROW applications already in the pipeline for next year by Oct'11. To me, this might indicate fewer spillovers for the next year, irrespective of EB1 and EB2-ROW usage in 2012.

pch053,
Again lot of variables, not only pending EB1&EB2ROW485 demand but also i140 pipeline (pending numbers almost doubled in the last 12 months), which could definitely include some porting cases!.

[Stemcell]

This kind of spillover tells you that wherever we end this year in terms of clearing the backlog, to clear next 1 year of backlog could take 1 or 2 years.

So the spillover this year could very well be 20-30 or even 40K. And next year it could be 6-10K or yet another 20K. It all depends on how much latent demand is sitting in labor 140 and 485 pipelines of EB2ROWMP and EB1.

That's what makes predictions difficult.



Q and the other experts
First of all thank you for all the hard work you all put in. Being a silent spectator it is just amazing to see all of you doing the crunching of numbers.
I have one questions and pardon me if its been asked and answered before.
Assuming this year when the July 07 point is cleared or even lets say July 07 is reached by May 2012, what are the guidelines for the dates to be moved forward.

Will the DOS arbitrarily choose a date, for example with all the rumors of NVC fee notices uptill June 2008, does that mean they arbitrarily chose June 2008 or does the guidelines say that when the demand has been met, the dates should be made 'current'....weather there will be a 'fiasco' or not...

Thank you in advance for answering my question.

[qesehmk]

That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.



Q and the other experts
First of all thank you for all the hard work you all put in. Being a silent spectator it is just amazing to see all of you doing the crunching of numbers.
I have one questions and pardon me if its been asked and answered before.
Assuming this year when the July 07 point is cleared or even lets say July 07 is reached by May 2012, what are the guidelines for the dates to be moved forward.

Will the DOS arbitrarily choose a date, for example with all the rumors of NVC fee notices uptill June 2008, does that mean they arbitrarily chose June 2008 or does the guidelines say that when the demand has been met, the dates should be made 'current'....weather there will be a 'fiasco' or not...

Thank you in advance for answering my question.

[saky007]

That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.

Q,

I might be totally out of line here but do you think we will get an answer from DOS/CO if we posed this question to them. A clarification in this regard would help so many of us plan better.

[Teja9999]

New to Forum, Liked it - Kudos Guys

Question here regarding Facts and data Table
did you guys account for following scenario when you are calculating Data
My PD is DEC 2007 however it took 26 Months to get my Labor Certified ( FEB 2010), does my number got included in dec data or feb 2010 data ?

just curious

[Stemcell]

That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.



Thank you for answering Q.
When July 07 happened do you all know how the situation was, was the demand zero at that time or was it just an accidental opening of gates.
Because if the the dates were made current in July 07 when demand was zero maybe it will be applicable this year or whenever we reach zero demand isnt it?

[srini1976]

Q,

What are the chances for this scenario:

Based on spillover received in 2011, Clear all EB2 (I & C) up to July 2007 by fiscal year 2011, Then in FY 2012 beginning Oct 2011 - April/May/Jun 2012 use the regular EB2 (I) quota for portings and then move dates EB2 & EB3 till Oct or Dec 2007. This way they will receive new filings (gradually) and also use the spill over (2012) to clear up cases in EB3(ROW & I)?

Does EB2 need to be current for any spillover to EB3?



That's the million dollar questions on everybody's mind. While the immigration laws provide a framework for agencies to work, my understanding is that there is always room for agencies to interpret them according to the policy of DoS or DHS.

There are indications so far that the agencies are serious about clearing EB2IC backlog upto Jul 2007. If they reach Jul 2007, technically the demand falls to zero after Aug 2007 and so USCIS would need to make the category current. So there will be a significant forward movement followed by immediate retrogression within 1-2 months.

How much forward movement is the question. My "belief" is that it depends on what agencies choose to do. They can move upto a year and fall back or move 2 years and fall back or make it current. I really do not know. I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. Nobody would aske me for a recommendation on this one - but my recommendation would be to make teh category current to allow everybody to file 485.

I know this is not precise answer. But I hope this clarifies things a little bit for you.

p.s. - I wouldn't call such a move a fiasco unless DoS DHS are not synchronized on such a move.

Since so many people may have this question ... after other people are done answering we will move this dialogue to Q&A session.

[veni001]

New to Forum, Liked it - Kudos Guys

Question here regarding Facts and data Table
did you guys account for following scenario when you are calculating Data
My PD is DEC 2007 however it took 26 Months to get my Labor Certified ( FEB 2010), does my number got included in dec data or feb 2010 data ?

just curious

Teja9999,
Yes, please check FY-CY Matrix (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) for PERM approvals (2007 to Q2-2011).

Your PERM certification should be part of the 1,005 certifications for PD 2007 in FY 2010.

[veni001]

Thank you for answering Q.
When July 07 happened do you all know how the situation was, was the demand zero at that time or was it just an accidental opening of gates.
Because if the the dates were made current in July 07 when demand was zero maybe it will be applicable this year or whenever we reach zero demand isnt it?

Stemcell,
I don't think DOS/USCIS was tracking demand closely or had coordination in setting monthly VB cut-off dates in 2007

[Teja9999]

Thanks for clarification, now i understood ( i am still a rookie :))

[veni001]

Thanks for clarification, now i understood ( i am still a rookie :))

Teja9999,
Welcome, we all started as rookie(s) :):)

[Stemcell]

Stemcell,
I don't think DOS/USCIS was tracking demand closely or had coordination in setting monthly VB cut-off dates in 2007

Thank you Veni for the clarification.

[Stemcell]

' I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. '

Q,

If the person who received the NVC letter with the priority date of June 08 is to be believed someone in DOS may be thinking like you...to move the dates by 1 year. July 07 to June 08.....I am not a number cruncher but just your statement and the NVC letters seemed a coincidence....

[qesehmk]

its a good coincidence. People receiving NVC notices corroborates to some extent our argument. But our argument is primarily based in the logic that come May 2012 DoS doesnt want to find itself in a situation where SOFAD exists but not enough approvable demand exists. They need 9 months to process 1 year worth demand from EB2IC + ROWMP.

While its possible that SOFAD in 2012 could very well be very limited, DoS can't make decision about it on that chance.


' I think they should move it at least 1 year ahead to ensure sufficient utilization of any possible SOFAD at the end of FY 2012. '

Q,

If the person who received the NVC letter with the priority date of June 08 is to be believed someone in DOS may be thinking like you...to move the dates by 1 year. July 07 to June 08.....I am not a number cruncher but just your statement and the NVC letters seemed a coincidence....

[Stemcell]

its a good coincidence. People receiving NVC notices corroborates to some extent our argument. But our argument is primarily based in the logic that come May 2012 DoS doesnt want to find itself in a situation where SOFAD exists but not enough approvable demand exists. They need 9 months to process 1 year worth demand from EB2IC + ROWMP.

While its possible that SOFAD in 2012 could very well be very limited, DoS can't make decision about it on that chance.


So maybe DOS and USCIS have become very efficient (monthly demand data is evidence of that) we may see a situation where they do not want to waste any spillover. In the past there has been visa wastage is my understanding.All this makes me very nervous with a PD of October 2007. Till late i was a living a learned helplessness life and now i see hope....which sometimes causes anxiety.
Thanks again guys.

[qblogfan]

comfort. I hope you will get your green card soon!

best wishes to you.


So maybe DOS and USCIS have become very efficient (monthly demand data is evidence of that) we may see a situation where they do not want to waste any spillover. In the past there has been visa wastage is my understanding.All this makes me very nervous with a PD of October 2007. Till late i was a living a learned helplessness life and now i see hope....which sometimes causes anxiety.
Thanks again guys.

[leo07]

DOS & CIS would also remain how the July 2007 applications brought the system to a screeching halt for months.

Agreeing that they would move the dates far enough, IMO, they would do it in phases. Validating the lines at each point.


its a good coincidence. People receiving NVC notices corroborates to some extent our argument. But our argument is primarily based in the logic that come May 2012 DoS doesnt want to find itself in a situation where SOFAD exists but not enough approvable demand exists. They need 9 months to process 1 year worth demand from EB2IC + ROWMP.

While its possible that SOFAD in 2012 could very well be very limited, DoS can't make decision about it on that chance.

[qesehmk]

Leo you are right. The question is how far each line should be? 3 months 6 months or 9 months or something else?



DOS & CIS would also remain how the July 2007 applications brought the system to a screeching halt for months.

Agreeing that they would move the dates far enough, IMO, they would do it in phases. Validating the lines at each point.

[leo07]

If they look back last 2-3 years, conservatively they will need a inventory of 6-9 months to traverse smoothly in 2012. Like without having to waste visas or go through a mad rush of allocating visas at random.

Here is where I think, DOS/CIS, with their past experience, will responsibly move the dates in phases of 3-4 months at a time to cover the inventory, without taxing the CIS pipelines.

Again, this is all hypothetical and my own view, if it helps any, CIS had traditionally/historically proven me wrong. :)


Leo you are right. The question is how far each line should be? 3 months 6 months or 9 months or something else?

[donvar]

Here is where I think, DOS/CIS, with their past experience, will responsibly move the dates in phases of 3-4 months at a time to cover the inventory, without taxing the CIS pipelines.


They will move dates very conservatively.
I agree with your 3-4 month at a time estimate and I firmly believe that dates will not reach early 2008 until Nov-Dec 2011 . They will get so much PWMB demand that they will have a buffer so they will proceed with caution.

[Stemcell]

Leo you are right. The question is how far each line should be? 3 months 6 months or 9 months or something else?

I wonder if feedback from advocacy groups have an impact on DOS setting the future dates during the next couple of visa bulletins.What i mean if the DOS does not have a plan as to what to do next.... whether to make dates current or to slowly move the dates, they can feel the pulse of the immigration community and do so accordingly. I may be way out of line here but again just a thought......

[self.coach]

My priority date is August 2009.

Am I too optimistic in thinking that possibly in 2011 I will be able to apply for i-485 EAD and by 2012 I will get GC?

Please correct me (hopefully I am not horribly optimistic) and let me know a scenario that is more probable in this case.

Appreciate it...you guys rock!

[pg_at_q]

I agree with Veni001. I think the current info. points to a date later than April 2008. Maybe Q1 and Q2 of 2008 will be able to submit 485. The NVC fee is only valid for 12 months. Almost all the folks already paid the fee.

Another news is that the same Chinese guy asked the CO office regarding the next VB. CO office replied that the PD in August VB will move forward for "several months". It was writen in Chinese, so I can't post the link here. "Several months" usually means more than three months. This Chinese guy has provided reliable information in the past. I think the next VB will reach July 2007. I mention this info here just for your reference.

Keep our fingers crossed.

Hey Guys,
May be a stupid question here so please pardon in advance. I was curious what does CO above stand for? Is it the visa office in DOS that determines the bulletin? If so, how come the chinese guy is able to get replies from them directly?

I guess what I am trying to get to is, if it's so easy to get replies from the actual "man" himself, then why do we all waste so much time predicting, when we can directly approach the "man" and ask him what's next?

[cbpds1]

I think you have 15% chance of it happening.


My priority date is August 2009.

Am I too optimistic in thinking that possibly in 2011 I will be able to apply for i-485 EAD and by 2012 I will get GC?

Please correct me (hopefully I am not horribly optimistic) and let me know a scenario that is more probable in this case.

Appreciate it...you guys rock!

[veni001]

Q,
Which is true prior to July 2007 fiasco, but not any more!

Please check this out....

Collaboration with DOS (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=71f24d6c52c99110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD)

"USCIS works with DOS more closely than ever to exchange information that is critical for managing visa allocation and for targeting future production efforts. We are now in weekly contact with the Chief of DOS’s Visa Unit to communicate current inventories per country and preference class to better determine each month’s visa bulletin. DOS provides regular updates to USCIS on past visa number usage and remaining numeric allocations per country and preference class. DOS also shares its forecast for priority date movement in upcoming visa bulletins so that USCIS can adjust production in advance for maximum visa number usage.

USCIS and DOS are also working together on a plan to forward all approved family-based visa petitions to DOS, including those where the petitioner indicates the beneficiary will apply for adjustment of status in the United States. This will enhance the ability of DOS to accurately forecast demand for visa numbers and more precisely manage the establishment of priority dates to meter the intake of applications for adjustment of status to match visa availability."


I wonder if feedback from advocacy groups have an impact on DOS setting the future dates during the next couple of visa bulletins.What i mean if the DOS does not have a plan as to what to do next.... whether to make dates current or to slowly move the dates, they can feel the pulse of the immigration community and do so accordingly. I may be way out of line here but again just a thought......


Since DOS & USCIS are coordinating on regular basis in setting monthly VB cutoff dates, i am sure they should have a plan for the next two VB by now!

[self.coach]

Thanks for replying.

cbpds1, what is a better probability - I mean when will I be able to apply for EAD?

[leo07]

IMO, July-Sept 2012 is 70-80% chances for you. It's not pessimistic or nor too optimistic to aim for Sept 2012.

Thanks for replying.

cbpds1, what is a better probability - I mean when will I be able to apply for EAD?

[gcseeker]

self.coach the general rule of thumb is 4.5X the PD. So the best probable estimate is Q2 2013.

The most optimistic estimate is IF Uscis moves the dates into early 2008 and then as you might have read in the previous posts retrogression will follow it back to July 2007 .They might open the pipeline to cover 2008 in 2012 and you will have an chance in 2013.

Untill and unless they make it current which might not happen 99% due to the past fiasco.

Sorry to rain on the parade but just wanted to give you an realistic answer.


Thanks for replying.

cbpds1, what is a better probability - I mean when will I be able to apply for EAD?

[self.coach]

Thanks. This is the best and most helpful forum I have found..


IMO, July-Sept 2012 is 70-80% chances for you. It's not pessimistic or nor too optimistic to aim for Sept 2012.

[self.coach]

Okay. Thanks.


self.coach the general rule of thumb is 4.5X the PD. So the best probable estimate is Q2 2013.

The most optimistic estimate is IF Uscis moves the dates into early 2008 and then as you might have read in the previous posts retrogression will follow it back to July 2007 .They might open the pipeline to cover 2008 in 2012 and you will have an chance in 2013.

Untill and unless they make it current which might not happen 99% due to the past fiasco.

Sorry to rain on the parade but just wanted to give you an realistic answer.

[cbpds1]

As the gurus mentioned there are lots of numbers post Aug 2007 till 2008.

I just realized ur PD is Aug 2009, u will not make it even if they extend by 2 years to July 2009, hence u have a chance only if they make it C,
there fore the probability is really just 10%.....we need to be realistic, thats what I have learnt over the past 4 years while waiting to file for EAD.

just my 2 cents



Thanks for replying.

cbpds1, what is a better probability - I mean when will I be able to apply for EAD?

[self.coach]

What do you gurus think about this suggestion - can we have an excel or plain text attachment that we update after discussing every month's VBs, with a list of PDs by year (maybe first half Jan-June and second half July-Dec) and probable times for being able to apply EAD?

For example:

Priortiy Date Probable EAD
01-06/2007
07-12/2007
01-06/2008
07-12/2008

That's give us all better insight on a monthly basis.

As the gurus mentioned there are lots of numbers post Aug 2007 till 2008.

I just realized ur PD is Aug 2009, u will not make it even if they extend by 2 years to July 2009, hence u have a chance only if they make it C,
there fore the probability is really just 10%.....we need to be realistic, thats what I have learnt over the past 4 years while waiting to file for EAD.

just my 2 cents

[pch053]

I think trackitt stats is a decent indicator for tracking progress of I485 approvals and we are already seeing ~200 approvals (in Spec's separate thread) for the month of June as compared to 161 approvals in May. One of my friend and a cousin had their PDs around Aug'06 and Sep'06 and both of them have got their approvals in the last week. So, my feeling is that USCIS is moving along quite well with the approvals too. Any thoughts from others?

[veni001]

I think trackitt stats is a decent indicator for tracking progress of I485 approvals and we are already seeing ~200 approvals (in Spec's separate thread) for the month of June as compared to 161 approvals in May. One of my friend and a cousin had their PDs around Aug'06 and Sep'06 and both of them have got their approvals in the last week. So, my feeling is that USCIS is moving along quite well with the approvals too. Any thoughts from others?

pch053,
Based on the number of cases on trackitt Vs approvals(for May & June,PD's are current), i think they are on track for June. Looks like the same approval trend(more approvals in first half of the month Vs second half) as well.

[neospeed]

After talking to friend of mine who works at a big law firm, there is word out there that DOS/USCIS is planning to slow down the EB2-IC movement until PD July 2007 for this year and then instead of retrogressing dates, move them in each quarter next fiscal year as per demand and unused visa numbers. He also talked about some concerns that DOS/USCIS have about those who are waiting to file from PD July 2007, which is restricting them from advancing dates than required as those waiting are believed to be significant enough to take some spillover. (I was surprised to see him talking about PWMBs and significant numbers. He is unaware about us running this blog. Question is if all the statistics that is posted on internet by different sites like ours is ever viewed by DOS/USCIS. I doubt it). On asking about if available numbers will be more than the demand, will spillover be used towards EB3-ROW category, he suggested there is no information about it.

So now my take on this is this person has always provided me with mixed information. Sometime it happens to be right and some time wrong. So I am not at all confident in what he is saying. But I just wanted to share this information with our readers.

Personally, I still think EB2-IC will reach atleast December 2007 by end of this fiscal year. If not Q1 and Q2 will see such movement.

Since this whole situation is complicated and is nothing more than a waiting game, we will not make any predictions for EB2-IC for the coming two bulletins. We will just wait and observe what will happen. I had some pdated information that i wanted to share. You can take it or leave it as there is no estimation for what DOS will do with excess visa numbers.

source:
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/06/july-2011-visa-bulletin-and-eb-category.html#comments

[leo07]

neospeed,

Thanks for the update. This information aligns with our thoughts.(at least mine :))

However, we must understand that DOS looks at raw numbers in it's (CIS) hand to move the dates forward. Given the processing rates for 140's and 485's, that number would be bloated in advantage to forward date movements. Luckily, in the current climate, everyone is in favor of the scenario.

Post October 2011 inventory will give a clear picture for dates movement over the next year, for us and DOS alike.

Best!


After talking to friend of mine who works at a big law firm, there is word out there that DOS/USCIS is planning to slow down the EB2-IC movement until PD July 2007 for this year and then instead of retrogressing dates, move them in each quarter next fiscal year as per demand and unused visa numbers. He also talked about some concerns that DOS/USCIS have about those who are waiting to file from PD July 2007, which is restricting them from advancing dates than required as those waiting are believed to be significant enough to take some spillover. (I was surprised to see him talking about PWMBs and significant numbers. He is unaware about us running this blog. Question is if all the statistics that is posted on internet by different sites like ours is ever viewed by DOS/USCIS. I doubt it). On asking about if available numbers will be more than the demand, will spillover be used towards EB3-ROW category, he suggested there is no information about it.

So now my take on this is this person has always provided me with mixed information. Sometime it happens to be right and some time wrong. So I am not at all confident in what he is saying. But I just wanted to share this information with our readers.

Personally, I still think EB2-IC will reach atleast December 2007 by end of this fiscal year. If not Q1 and Q2 will see such movement.

Since this whole situation is complicated and is nothing more than a waiting game, we will not make any predictions for EB2-IC for the coming two bulletins. We will just wait and observe what will happen. I had some pdated information that i wanted to share. You can take it or leave it as there is no estimation for what DOS will do with excess visa numbers.

source:
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/06/july-2011-visa-bulletin-and-eb-category.html#comments

[qblogfan]

That website never provided any reliable information in the past. Their previous predictions were all wrong.

I would not trust the information they provided.



After talking to friend of mine who works at a big law firm, there is word out there that DOS/USCIS is planning to slow down the EB2-IC movement until PD July 2007 for this year and then instead of retrogressing dates, move them in each quarter next fiscal year as per demand and unused visa numbers. He also talked about some concerns that DOS/USCIS have about those who are waiting to file from PD July 2007, which is restricting them from advancing dates than required as those waiting are believed to be significant enough to take some spillover. (I was surprised to see him talking about PWMBs and significant numbers. He is unaware about us running this blog. Question is if all the statistics that is posted on internet by different sites like ours is ever viewed by DOS/USCIS. I doubt it). On asking about if available numbers will be more than the demand, will spillover be used towards EB3-ROW category, he suggested there is no information about it.

So now my take on this is this person has always provided me with mixed information. Sometime it happens to be right and some time wrong. So I am not at all confident in what he is saying. But I just wanted to share this information with our readers.

Personally, I still think EB2-IC will reach atleast December 2007 by end of this fiscal year. If not Q1 and Q2 will see such movement.

Since this whole situation is complicated and is nothing more than a waiting game, we will not make any predictions for EB2-IC for the coming two bulletins. We will just wait and observe what will happen. I had some pdated information that i wanted to share. You can take it or leave it as there is no estimation for what DOS will do with excess visa numbers.

source:
http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/06/july-2011-visa-bulletin-and-eb-category.html#comments

[gcseeker]

I second the same thought.The website that has been mentioned never got the predictions part right.

I would not care much about the predictions being done for the future as well.


That website never provided any reliable information in the past. Their previous predictions were all wrong.

I would not trust the information they provided.

[qesehmk]

Guys ... none of us are opposed to quoting other sources and website. But please don't go around quoting simply to say this is what the other guy is saying. You tell us what YOU think. We on this forum are interested in learning what YOU think .... not what some other people feel.

More analysis ..... less opinion.
Your thoughts ...... not somebody else's gut feel or wish list.

Lets follow these two guidelines. And I say guidelines. I don't want to draw a line because I generally believe in everybody's ability to make the right choice. On this website we do not believe in censorship. So we will not remove other sources or any post unless it is abusive. But before posting anything that conflicts with above two guidelines ... just think whether it will really help others. That's the request I make to you all.

[nayekal]

I second the same thought.The website that has been mentioned never got the predictions part right.

I would not care much about the predictions being done for the future as well.

That website predicted that EB2 I will move to Oct 2006 in April VB and got a big shock, when the actual movement is until July 2006. Until July VB, they gave the most pessimistic predictions, which are proved wrong.

Surprisingly, this time they gave the most optimistic prediction expecting the dates to move until 1st quarter of 2008 before retrogressing to June / July 2007 in Oct VB.
Personally, I don't see any thing wrong with that website and I learnt a lot from that site just like here.

[qesehmk]

Friends,

Our source is greened. He just received the card production notice. He is very thankful to this forum and to all of you. He will continue to help us in future. So dont be alarmed about anything.

One of the many interesting facts about him is he never had any lawyer EVER. Not that I would recommend that to anybody.. but its interesting that people do that. We wish him the very best and thank for his continued support!

[pch053]

Best of luck to your source for all his future endeavors. We are all immensely thankful to him for providing us useful leads on PD movements. On the lawyer issue, I have a couple of friends who successfully got theirs GCs in EB1A category without going through a lawyer. But I am sure those are exceptions and for employment based GCs, in most cases, one probably has to go with the employer's lawyer.

BTW, do we have any leads for PD movement for the month of Aug yet? I guess, it's a bit too premature to ask as for July's PD movement we got the input sometime around 1st week of June.

[ifaith]

pg_at_q why don't you email the man and see what he replies:)


Hey Guys,
May be a stupid question here so please pardon in advance. I was curious what does CO above stand for? Is it the visa office in DOS that determines the bulletin? If so, how come the chinese guy is able to get replies from them directly?

I guess what I am trying to get to is, if it's so easy to get replies from the actual "man" himself, then why do we all waste so much time predicting, when we can directly approach the "man" and ask him what's next?

[qesehmk]

PCH, we should have leads around 7-8th July.

BTW, do we have any leads for PD movement for the month of Aug yet? I guess, it's a bit too premature to ask as for July's PD movement we got the input sometime around 1st week of June.

[bieber]

Q

congrats to your friend and so nice of him to agree for continuing help

[kingjeremy]

Great job all of you guys. This is the most sane and respectful internet forum I have ever seen.

Being a complete n00b, I was wondering if there's a tutorial on how you guys think about the visa movements / predictions and calculations. If not, if someone can break it down in parts / simple english, that will be helpful.

I understand the facts that each country has an annual quota and the spillover concepts. However, what I struggle with is the denominator. Understand there is data available about known 485 demand, backlogs, etc. But not sure how to comprehend it.

For instance, my PD is Nov 2009. How would I know how many applicants would there be in the EB2-I category? Some people have already filed (those who have their PDs current, including the lucky ones from the 2007 fiasco). How do we get that data? Also, how do you estimate what the potential demand is for the people who still have not been able to file 485 (i.e. unknown demand)? I guess, the sum of those two should help us understand the total demand......rest everything is estimation of spill overs and an estimate of how many cases are declined or how many cancel their applications.

Am I thinking about it the right way?

Any help would be appreciated...would then be able to comprehend some of these discussions better.

Cheers.

[pch053]

Some pointers for you to get started. To estimate the future demand up to a particular PD, we have to break it into 2 parts: i) people who have already submitted their I485 applications and ii) people who are waiting to submit their I485 application.

One can get a relatively accurate information about (i) from the I485 pending inventory at USCIS website. The latest release of I485 pending inventory was made during beginning of June and one can see the numbers at:
http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

For the people who are waiting to file (ii), one can only make a rough estimate. The estimate is based on the number of PERM applications submitted/approved, #of of I140 applications submitted. The FACTS & DATA section of this forum (link below) has lots of details regarding the same and one will need to spend some time to digest all the information.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA

[SChowdary]

Hi Veni,

Probably this is a very stupid and a basic question but i was looking at the demand data that you put together from uscis/dol and see that the demand for India for 2008 and 2010 reduced over the months. 2008 was never current so how come the demand reduces.

Sorry if you have ans this questions too many times..

Thanks
SC

[michaelclarke]

Wanted to say Thanks to all you guys for doing a fantastic job. Please keep it up.

Based on your expert knowledge what is the chance of May 2007 PD becoming Current in the next VB?

[qesehmk]

Friends just a brief trackitt update. Based on the trackitt trend till today, we continue to predict 37-47K total SOFAD. At the lower end this will sufficient to clear the backlog through May 2007. At higher end it will clear all existing backlog and provide some spillover to EB3. The reality will lie somewhere in between of course.

Will update our trackitt predictions in Data and Facts section at the end of this month.

Next month expect min 2-3 months movement.

[veni001]

Hi Veni,

Probably this is a very stupid and a basic question but i was looking at the demand data that you put together from uscis/dol and see that the demand for India for 2008 and 2010 reduced over the months. 2008 was never current so how come the demand reduces.

Sorry if you have ans this questions too many times..

Thanks
SC

SChowdary,
The demand data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates) for EB2IC for 2008 and beyond is basically, documentarily qualified EB2IC filers until July2007 + CP demand from NVC
DOS/USCIS don't have AOS demand for EB2IC post July 2007 since both countries PD did never crossed July 2007.

[veni001]

Wanted to say Thanks to all you guys for doing a fantastic job. Please keep it up.

Based on your expert knowledge what is the chance of May 2007 PD becoming Current in the next VB?

michaelclarke
My guess would be 95% chance.

[michaelclarke]

Thanks Q. I had one quick question. On the US DOS Website link for Demand Data which they have updated on 5/10/2011 what does that figure represent. According to their data they have 14,100 until Jan 1 2007 and they have 29,425 until Jan 1 2008. What does this mean exactly.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[qesehmk]

That is DoS demand - which means they are all the 485 applications that have been approved by USCIS (or overseas consulates) and are waiting for a visa number from DoS.

The overall demand is of course includes 485 applications that are not yet approved by USCIS or the overseas consulates as well.


Thanks Q. I had one quick question. On the US DOS Website link for Demand Data which they have updated on 5/10/2011 what does that figure represent. According to their data they have 14,100 until Jan 1 2007 and they have 29,425 until Jan 1 2008. What does this mean exactly.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

[srivi2007]

Hi All,

Any guess / estimate when Jun 20th 2007 will become current .

Thanks

[bieber]

Veni

is 140 data for apr and may available? or they update quarterly? I see the data till mar in facts & Data section

[bieber]

Thanks Q. I had one quick question. On the US DOS Website link for Demand Data which they have updated on 5/10/2011 what does that figure represent. According to their data they have 14,100 until Jan 1 2007 and they have 29,425 until Jan 1 2008. What does this mean exactly.

http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/EmploymentDemandUsedForCutOffDates.pdf

number of people with priority date between Jan1, 2007 and Jan1, 2008 is eqaul to 29425-14100 (15325)

[MeraNoAayega]

Hi All,

Any guess / estimate when Jun 20th 2007 will become current .

Thanks

PD of June 20th 2007 should be current in August 2011 visa bulletin.

[sha_kus]

Q , i have a question.. will there be any difference in movement using the inventory data and the Demand Data?


Friends just a brief trackitt update. Based on the trackitt trend till today, we continue to predict 37-47K total SOFAD. At the lower end this will sufficient to clear the backlog through May 2007. At higher end it will clear all existing backlog and provide some spillover to EB3. The reality will lie somewhere in between of course.

Will update our trackitt predictions in Data and Facts section at the end of this month.

Next month expect min 2-3 months movement.

[qesehmk]

Yes of course.

Movement based on DoS demand data is much more volatile because that demand could fall off the cliff for short durations and then restore in next few months. That is the reason DoS has been asking USCIS to provide visibility to USCIS demand/receipts and processing queue.

Since USCIS has started publishing inventory I am sure DoS has started using that information in addition to their own Demand data. So the movements are much more controlled now. As far as this spillover season goes, DoS has excellent visibility to demand and so they are moving dates according to supply. The million dollar question is will they hit the edge of the cliff (as in Jul-Aug 2007) and what happens then!


Q , i have a question.. will there be any difference in movement using the inventory data and the Demand Data?

[TeluguBidda]

Yes of course.

Movement based on DoS demand data is much more volatile because that demand could fall off the cliff for short durations and then restore in next few months. That is the reason DoS has been asking USCIS to provide visibility to USCIS demand/receipts and processing queue.

Since USCIS has started publishing inventory I am sure DoS has started using that information in addition to their own Demand data. So the movements are much more controlled now. As far as this spillover season goes, DoS has excellent visibility to demand and so they are moving dates according to supply. The million dollar question is will they hit the edge of the cliff (as in Jul-Aug 2007) and what happens then!

My guess: - on an average, they most likely be having 2500 applications, starting August 2007. This was the aggregate # of applicants, considering all chargeability areas, starting 2005. Upward and downward factors should offset each other and 2500 is a reasonably good # to expect.

Of course, I was referring to pure EB-2 applications. Regarding EB-3 conversions, god knows. May be, 500 a month?

[veni001]

Veni

is 140 data for apr and may available? or they update quarterly? I see the data till mar in facts & Data section

bieber,
USCIS updated dash board with April data earlier this week.

April 2011- i140
Receipts -7,464
Completions - 8,073
Awaiting Cust. Action - 2,491
All Other Pending - 34,352

I am waiting on Q3 FY2012 PERM data( probably next month) to update FACTS AND DATA section.

[sandeep11]

My guess: - on an average, they most likely be having 2500 applications, starting August 2007. This was the aggregate # of applicants, considering all chargeability areas, starting 2005. Upward and downward factors should offset each other and 2500 is a reasonably good # to expect.

Of course, I was referring to pure EB-2 applications. Regarding EB-3 conversions, god knows. May be, 500 a month?


Hi All,

With all the calculations that Q, Venni, Spector have provided, 1st Quarter of 2008 seems more realsitic by Sep 2011 VB. Somehow, I feel this would be a repeat of Aug/Sep of 2008 where dates advanced by 2+ years and then retrogessed.