EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

You got it PCH!

Thanks all for the suggestions! I know that his medical details are incomplete, so I will assume that it will generate a RFE while I485 adjudication. Is 30 days the standard time to reply to a RFE on pending I485 apps?

Sure. Will do.

Q...this is very good information which lot of people have questions on....please open a separate thread for this info rather than letting it bury in this thread...

Rule of thumb is 5 years.

Guys,

Can someone tell me when can EB2 with PD 02/2011 expect GC? My PERM was filed in Oct 2008 which was denied after more than 2 years. Then my employer filed new PERM in Feb. 2011 which is approved now. So next stage is I-140. In your opinion, when will my PD become current?

Jun 2008 should get GC in 3 years max from now. I would suggest weigh carefully current slavery for 3 years vs next job slavery for 6 yrs and then make a decision. I wish you could use AC21. But unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case


Hi gurus, I am new to this forum. My PD is June, 2008. I have a job offer at hand and company can hire me in 1 month from now and are willing to file my PERM in 4 to 5 months time frame. With priority dates moving so fast, I am confused. Company is big and position is full-time.

Please share your thoughts or advice. I am thinking I may miss my chance of EAD even if PD moves very fast and goes back in October bulletin. But GC will not come anytime before Sep/Oct of 2012. Please comment.

[sunsrk]

"3 years from now"? why 6 years if I change jobs. I have my PD locked as Jun 2008, so why 6 years just because of changing a job?


You got it PCH!]



Jun 2008 should get GC in 3 years max from now. I would suggest weigh carefully current slavery for 3 years vs next job slavery for 6 yrs and then make a decision. I wish you could use AC21. But unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case

[veni001]

Thanks Q, Teddy. Spec, Veni for your excellent work. Kudos to you all!!! This is one the best thread and I have been silently following this thread since its inception. My PD is Dec 2006 but I missed I-485 filling because of DOL error (PERM denied). If I file my I485 this July do you guys think I will get my GC within this year quota (By Sept 2011)? Or do I need to wait for next year quota..may be 6 months from now? I need to know that information because I need to change my job ASAP.Q, Teddy others, Please share your thought. Thanks in advance.

lagan2006,
Considering the processing time Sept 2011 is kind of tough but definitely before Christmas.

Even if we see jerky movement in the visa bulletins between August 2011 and October 2011 with EB2I&C PD, the chances of retrogressing into 2006 is minimal or none.

[veni001]

"3 years from now"? why 6 years if I change jobs. I have my PD locked as Jun 2008, so why 6 years just because of changing a job?

Not because of changing jobs but based on EB2I&C pipeline and also based on the assumption of SOFAD will continue at the current level for future years. Lot of variables that could change between now and your PD become current. So it could be shorter or longer.

[sunsrk]

Veni, Sorry I still didn't understand. If new company does PERM certification and I-140 captures my old PD, time to get GC should not change whether I am with current job or with new job, right? I may miss chance for EAD if my PD becomes current temporarily for 1 month (to build pipeline for future spill over), but GC time shouldn't change right?


Not because of changing jobs but based on EB2I&C pipeline and also based on the assumption of SOFAD will continue at the current level for future years. Lot of variables that could change between now and your PD become current. So it could be shorter or longer.

[veni001]

Veni, Sorry I still didn't understand. If new company does PERM certification and I-140 captures my old PD, time to get GC should not change whether I am with current job or with new job, right? I may miss chance for EAD if my PD becomes current temporarily for 1 month (to build pipeline for future spill over), but GC time shouldn't change right?

That is key, in the event if you are not able to file if USCIS open a short window to buffer b'se you may not have your new labor approved for that opportunity. But there are 30k EBI&C PERM certifications (~70%EB2)between 2007(incl PWMB) and June 2008 in addition to any porting numbers( may not be very high).

All in all this could generate about 40-45k new EB2I&C demand. Assuming current SOFAD levels will continue for few more years,could take two years to clear that inventory before you get a chance to file your i485 with new i140 and June 2008 PD, if you add processing time and possible FYend/new FY it could be 2-3 years from now.

[qesehmk]

3 Yrs if your PD is retained. 6 if PD is not retained. Does that make sense? Frankly speaking i have a lot of faith in 3 year scenario just because with long horizons the number of unknowns increases.


"3 years from now"? why 6 years if I change jobs. I have my PD locked as Jun 2008, so why 6 years just because of changing a job?

[sunsrk]

Thanks Q. Why PD will not be retained? I have an EB2 approved I-140 with my current employer. So once my PERM is approved, during I-140 with new employer I should retain my PD (it is not even porting, from EB2 to EB2 only).


3 Yrs if your PD is retained. 6 if PD is not retained. Does that make sense? Frankly speaking i have a lot of faith in 3 year scenario just because with long horizons the number of unknowns increases.

[qesehmk]

Sorry I assumed you do not have approved 140. I think there is no way you will get GC even if are able to file 485 now. So you might as well improve career and then get in the line with old PD. Thus career is improved (hopefully) and teh cycle time to GC is the same! Makes sense?


Thanks Q. Why PD will not be retained? I have an EB2 approved I-140 with my current employer. So once my PERM is approved, during I-140 with new employer I should retain my PD (it is not even porting, from EB2 to EB2 only).

[sunsrk]

Thanks Q. That is what I am also thinking. Offer is from a stable company. I was only worried about PERM/I-140 denials? Do you know those % denials? I don't want to think negative cases. New offer (pay and benefits are good), I will anyways get 3 year extension and by then PERM or I-140 should get cleared even if there is any audit (by bad luck). Appreciate your time in helping me here.


Sorry I assumed you do not have approved 140. I think there is no way you will get GC even if are able to file 485 now. So you might as well improve career and then get in the line with old PD. Thus career is improved (hopefully) and teh cycle time to GC is the same! Makes sense?

[qesehmk]

The ONLY thing I would STRONGLY recommend is ask them to start the process ASAP. Tell them you already are more than half way. So don't want to lose time.

Don't want you to regret once you lose this GC process ....

Good luck.



Thanks Q. That is what I am also thinking. Offer is from a stable company. I was only worried about PERM/I-140 denials? Do you know those % denials? I don't want to think negative cases. New offer (pay and benefits are good), I will anyways get 3 year extension and by then PERM or I-140 should get cleared even if there is any audit (by bad luck). Appreciate your time in helping me here.

[sunsrk]

Hi Q, Company agreed to Start GC on the first day of joining. Approx. 3 to 4 months for PERM submission is the time frame Attorney promised.
If no audit, in 2 to 3 months PERM should be approved. So total of 6 to 7 months for PERM process is what is promised by attorney of new company.

[sunsrk]

Hi Q, Company agreed to Start GC on the first day of joining. Approx. 3 to 4 months for PERM submission is the time frame Attorney promised.
If no audit, in 2 to 3 months PERM should be approved. So total of 6 to 7 months for PERM process is what is promised by attorney of new company.

The ONLY thing I would STRONGLY recommend is ask them to start the process ASAP. Tell them you already are more than half way. So don't want to lose time.

Don't want you to regret once you lose this GC process ....

Good luck.

[ifaith]

Hi Veni
For the below comments, I have a question for you.
Till Sept USCIS have to use all the Green Card numbers that would mean till March 2007 or may be higher all the pre adjudicated cases have to be approved else the visa numbers will go waste.
In that case would when would they come back to solve cases like lagan's whose Priority date is Dec 2006. Would that start in Next fiscal year. Is there a chance of hims getting EAD till Sept 11, reason being my bro was also in PWMB as his date was Aug 2006 and he just became current and his filed his papers what are his chances to get EAD or Green card till Sept.


lagan2006,
Considering the processing time Sept 2011 is kind of tough but definitely before Christmas.

Even if we see jerky movement in the visa bulletins between August 2011 and October 2011 with EB2I&C PD, the chances of retrogressing into 2006 is minimal or none.

[pch053]

After this bulletin, will there be any change in the "EB2 PD Predictions" in the first post? As of now, the date is set to be around April'07, though now it is more likely that it will go past that. I think we might have a slightly clearer picture when we have the I485 pending data for the month of July. The key is probably the FD from EB1 and that will dictate the still available SOFAD numbers and hence PD movement for Aug and Sep months.

[ssvp22]

Hi Q, Company agreed to Start GC on the first day of joining. Approx. 3 to 4 months for PERM submission is the time frame Attorney promised.
If no audit, in 2 to 3 months PERM should be approved. So total of 6 to 7 months for PERM process is what is promised by attorney of new company.

If i were you, i will stick back for the GC. Unless you are going to get $1 million+ of stock options, no job is worth the risk.

[veni001]

Hi Veni
For the below comments, I have a question for you.
Till Sept USCIS have to use all the Green Card numbers that would mean till March 2007 or may be higher all the pre adjudicated cases have to be approved else the visa numbers will go waste.
In that case would when would they come back to solve cases like lagan's whose Priority date is Dec 2006. Would that start in Next fiscal year. Is there a chance of hims getting EAD till Sept 11, reason being my bro was also in PWMB as his date was Aug 2006 and he just became current and his filed his papers what are his chances to get EAD or Green card till Sept.

ifaith,
Three things need to happen
First, your i485 must be documentarily qualified (processing should be complete, FP, Background check...etc, usually 4 months)
Second, your PD should be current
Third, VISA number is available to assign

So, even if there are more VISA# available, if your applications is not documentarily qualified then USCIS can not assign a VISA number.

[vedu]

The July visa bulletin is Out. EB-2 India moves to March 8th, 2007.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html

[veni001]

The July visa bulletin is Out. EB-2 India moves to March 8th, 2007.

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html

vedu,
Looks like you have been sleeping all day yesterday :) Wake Up! :)

[qesehmk]

Will do it over the weekend.
After this bulletin, will there be any change in the "EB2 PD Predictions" in the first post? As of now, the date is set to be around April'07, though now it is more likely that it will go past that. I think we might have a slightly clearer picture when we have the I485 pending data for the month of July. The key is probably the FD from EB1 and that will dictate the still available SOFAD numbers and hence PD movement for Aug and Sep months.

[vishnu]

q + others: you've been following these bulletins for a while now. the july 11 bulletin came out before dos demand data and had ZERO commentary on EB. have you seen anything like this before?

[qesehmk]

My understanding is that that's how it always was. In fact Demand data is something that DoS started publishing in last few years. Regardless I do not really believe there is a lot to it.

However there is one thing that really piqued my interest. I never noticed this before (although the language is there for all prior bulletins). It says the EB limit is at least 140,000.

If you look at last year the FB spillover was first mentioned only in August bulletin. So I guess the agency likes to play it close and keep some discretion in providing FB spillover (FBSP) to EB. For year 2010 the FBSP was 10K. However the FB underutilization was 14K. So not all underutilization translated into FBSP.

In year 2010 the underutilization is 11K. So realistically the August bulletin should show FBSP 7-8K.... thereby bumping EB quota to 147-8K. That will a sweet sweet addition to any potential remaining SOFAD from EB1/5/2-ROW.

But as I said, the question is not whether it is there and whether it could be used. The question is whats the objective on DoS' part? The more I think about it, the more I have started to think, they really want to get through Jul 2007 and take in new applications. Don't take it to bank but .. I think they have certainly created the background whereby if the Agencies decide to do so, they will have the ability and means to do so.


q + others: you've been following these bulletins for a while now. the july 11 bulletin came out before dos demand data and had ZERO commentary on EB. have you seen anything like this before?

[vishnu]

Q - so going back to something you mentioned on a previous post, for a visa number to be used (and waste avoided), not sufficient that the i-485 has been submitted - it must be found documentararily complete?

[qesehmk]

Simple answer is yes.

A more complex answer would be a question - Does "Documentarily Qualified = Preadj" ?? If not, intuitively "Preadj > Documentarily Qualified", is that right?

Spec what's your take on these questions?



Q - so going back to something you mentioned on a previous post, for a visa number to be used (and waste avoided), not sufficient that the i-485 has been submitted - it must be found documentararily complete?

[Spectator]

Q,

Not sure why you think that. Comments inline.


For year 2010 the FBSP was 10K. However the FB underutilization was 14K. So not all underutilization translated into FBSP.

In FY2009 FB used 215,333 visas versus an allocation of 226,000. That was an under-use of 10,667. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY09AnnualReport_TableV_1.pdf

In FY2010, EB received an allocation of 150,657 or 10,657 above the initial allocation of 140,000. The difference of 10 can probably be accounted for under special provisions.

In year 2010 the underutilization is 11K. So realistically the August bulletin should show FBSP 7-8K.... thereby bumping EB quota to 147-8K. That will a sweet sweet addition to any potential remaining SOFAD from EB1/5/2-ROW.

In FY2010 FB used 226,651 visas versus a limit of 226,000. There are no spare visas from FY2010 FB to allocate to EB in FY2011. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY10AnnualReport-TableV-PartI.pdf

In fact, unusually, DOS published the Annual Numerical Limits this year http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf which show that EB has 140k.

DOS will still be waiting for USCIS to supply the figures they need, so they can't categorically state the numbers calculated under INA 201, but that doesn't mean they will change.

But as I said, the question is not whether it is there and whether it could be used. The question is whats the objective on DoS' part? The more I think about it, the more I have started to think, they really want to get through Jul 2007 and take in new applications. Don't take it to bank but .. I think they have certainly created the background whereby if the Agencies decide to do so, they will have the ability and means to do so.

[gccool]

Veni,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and time.
I have a quick question for you. I thought if one's PD is current, he/she will be automatically assigned a Visa number. Is that not right? Sorry for my ignorance.
Thanks!


ifaith,
Three things need to happen
First, your i485 must be documentarily qualified (processing should be complete, FP, Background check...etc, usually 4 months)
Second, your PD should be current
Third, VISA number is available to assign

So, even if there are more VISA# available, if your applications is not documentarily qualified then USCIS can not assign a VISA number.

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends, analysis will follow. But I am very glad that prediction from our source (AK) hit bulls eye !!

Those who are current .... many congratulations. May your wait come to a quick sweet end. As per me, I think my date is Mar 28th or so. So its not over yet. But I am confident now that I will get it during this cycle.

Once again friends .... love you all .... for your support, friendship and sharing. Will post some analysis in the evening if there is anything worthwhile.

Q you will definitely be current next month. Frankly movement till 8th March is beyond all expectations.


Some thing wrong with my eyes! Every thing looks 'green' color to me today :D (my PD 02/20/2007)

Congratulations finally your green hour is approaching.


Thanks Q, Teddy and others for the exhaustive work you guys have done over the last several months. I have been following this thread since its inception on IV. At IV, I had seen the threads created by individual needing help or providing some information. Nothing bad in that. Q's thread was the first successful attempt in creating a thread, "owning" the content and collaborating with others for shedding the light on the process that lot of us were clueless about. This is indeed a commendable effort. VDLrao was the first person who started the process and Q and others took it to the next level. Kudos !

Now the business: What are some of the things you could do if your date is current and you have already filed I-485? I am one of those who rode July-07 boat....and curious to know what could be and should be done between now and till the fun begins in July. Thank you for all the replies.

- Carrey

Thanks for your kind words. Just sit back and relax, I sincerely hope you are greened by Sep 2011.


Thanks Q, Teddy. Spec, Veni for your excellent work. Kudos to you all!!! This is one the best thread and I have been silently following this thread since its inception. My PD is Dec 2006 but I missed I-485 filling because of DOL error (PERM denied). If I file my I485 this July do you guys think I will get my GC within this year quota (By Sept 2011)? Or do I need to wait for next year quota..may be 6 months from now? I need to know that information because I need to change my job ASAP.Q, Teddy others, Please share your thought. Thanks in advance.

Many thanks and congratulations I believe you should surely get your GC by Sep 2011, 3 months is sufficient time to process.

[veni001]

Veni,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and time.
I have a quick question for you. I thought if one's PD is current, he/she will be automatically assigned a Visa number. Is that not right? Sorry for my ignorance.
Thanks!

gccool,
Which is true only if that application is documentarily qualified when PD is current.

[mpurna77]

Some thing wrong with my eyes! Every thing looks 'green' color to me today :D (my PD 02/20/2007)

I just see a case with PD 02/20/2007 approved in TSC in trackitt isn't it you:-)

[Spectator]

Simple answer is yes.

A more complex answer would be a question - Does "Documentarily Qualified = Preadj" ?? If not, intuitively "Preadj > Documentarily Qualified", is that right?

Spec what's your take on these questions?Q,

I think that is an interesting question. Here is my take on it.

The Demand Data can only show a number if a visa has been requested.

For AOS, that can only happen when the FBI fingerprint check, the IBIS check and the Name check have been completed (there are provisions if the namecheck has been pending >150 days, but I don't think they would apply if a visa is not immediately available).

The reality is that the visa is not requested until the case has been pre-adjudicated.

A more interesting question to me, is at what point CP cases appear in the Demand Data.

I think it is very late in the process. According to this list of steps, it only occurs at step 5, which is just before the interview is scheduled.


The USCIS (formerly known as the INS) forwards the approved immigrant petition (the I-797 Notice of Action) to the National Visa Center (NVC) if the alien has indicated his desire to apply for consular processing in an immigration petition. Otherwise, he has to file Form I-824 to request consular processing;

The NVC sends Packet 3 to the alien when an immigrant visa number becomes available;

The alien and his family complete Packet 3 and return it to the NVC;

The NVC processes Packet 3;

The NVC notifies the State Department Visa Office of the completed Packet 3 processing and requests allocation of visa numbers for the alien and his family; and

The NVC schedules an immigrant visa processing appointment to be attended by the alien and his family at the nearest U.S. consulate that issues immigrant visas.

http://www.hooyou.com/consularprocess/faq.html
That means most of the CP cases do not appear as part of the Demand Data.

[Spectator]

Veni,
Thank you for sharing your knowledge and time.
I have a quick question for you. I thought if one's PD is current, he/she will be automatically assigned a Visa number. Is that not right? Sorry for my ignorance.
Thanks!A visa will be issued at the time the application is finally adjudicated IF the PD is still Current at that time.

Many people in July 2007 were Current, but the Cut Off Dates retrogressed to a date equal to or earlier than their PD by the time their case was adjudicated.

[grnwtg]

Looks Like many Guru's are going to get green by sep'2011. I wondering about analysis in this site after that. Q, Veni, Teddy, Spectator - i think you are going to greened card shortly i do no expect you to be active after that. What are your suggestions for this forums? . I guess There are few other guru's who are got pd in 2008
And Q, I think you started this website( though i am not sure), are you going to keep this website alive?

[qesehmk]

Spec I was looking at DHS data rather than DoS. That is where the numbers I quoted came from. If DoS data is the final word, (which makes more sense) then you are right.


Q,

Not sure why you think that. Comments inline.


On this one ... I have always thought about "Documentarily Qualified" weaker than preadj. i.e. many people can be qualified but a subset will be preadjudicated. But it seems its the other way round.


Q,

The Demand Data can only show a number if a visa has been requested.



On a different topic ... I think I found why quarterly spillover doesn't happen although we think AC21 specifically asked for it. Here is what AC21 asked for.


The American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21) removed the per-country limit in any calendar quarter in which overall applicant demand for Employment-based visa numbers is less than the total of such numbers available.


Note it says "OVERALL" demand. Not demand for non-retrogressed countries. That's the problem. So yes .... the non-retrogressed countries might show less demand than supply, but the AC21 doesn't allow spillover unless OVERALL demand is less than supply. In other words AC21 would be useful only when countries may be slightly retrogressed rather than severely retrogressed.

[PD1006]

With the dates moving forward rapidly, how do we know a case has been pre-adjudicated?

[qesehmk]

Rest 100% assured this website will go on. And i will continue to contribute.


looks like many guru's are going to get green by sep'2011. I wondering about analysis in this site after that. Q, veni, teddy, spectator - i think you are going to greened card shortly i do no expect you to be active after that. What are your suggestions for this forums? . I guess there are few other guru's who are got pd in 2008
and q, i think you started this website( though i am not sure), are you going to keep this website alive?

[bieber]

Q, Veni

someone asked about June2008 PD and you both were saying it could take 3 years, help me understand here

according to Spec, there will be 16,000 EB2IC in calendar 2007 (PWMB and till dec31st) once the backlog is cleared. from Jan to Jun2008, based on perm numbers, the 485 demand will be around 15,000 (65:35 Eb2 and 80% 140 approval rate with 2.2 dependent ratio)

so the number of 485s can be anywhere from 24k to 36k and even if the spillover goes down to last year level, he should get his gc in 2 years. I do see there is a chance for him to get it by sept2012 too.

eitherway, when do you think he will get a chance to file 485

[qesehmk]

Bieber pls note I said MAX 3 years. I completely agree he may get a chance to file as soon as Sep 2011. And could actually get it by Sep 2012. The reason I am hesitant to go into details is because my suspicion is that this year EB2IC is being favored for backlog reduction which means next year we will see all those EB1 and EB2 ROW come back roaring. But we will know better when Oct 2011 inventory is published.


Q, Veni

someone asked about June2008 PD and you both were saying it could take 3 years, help me understand here

according to Spec, there will be 16,000 EB2IC in calendar 2007 (PWMB and till dec31st) once the backlog is cleared. from Jan to Jun2008, based on perm numbers, the 485 demand will be around 15,000 (65:35 Eb2 and 80% 140 approval rate with 2.2 dependent ratio)

so the number of 485s can be anywhere from 24k to 36k and even if the spillover goes down to last year level, he should get his gc in 2 years. I do see there is a chance for him to get it by sept2012 too.

eitherway, when do you think he will get a chance to file 485

[neospeed]

Q, Veni

someone asked about June2008 PD and you both were saying it could take 3 years, help me understand here

according to Spec, there will be 16,000 EB2IC in calendar 2007 (PWMB and till dec31st) once the backlog is cleared. from Jan to Jun2008, based on perm numbers, the 485 demand will be around 15,000 (65:35 Eb2 and 80% 140 approval rate with 2.2 dependent ratio)

so the number of 485s can be anywhere from 24k to 36k and even if the spillover goes down to last year level, he should get his gc in 2 years. I do see there is a chance for him to get it by sept2012 too.

eitherway, when do you think he will get a chance to file 485

The movement will only occur during last quater. And you need consider PWMB and also porting cases when the next dates move

[bieber]

Q,

I will wait until you get a chance to analyze, if you, veni, teddy, spec would like to participate we should probably open a separate thread for that discussion


The movement will only occur during last quater. And you need consider PWMB and also porting cases when the next dates move

I did consider everything you just mentioned :)

[GCDespo]

Gurus and Pandits,

lets say if the dates move to JUL /AUG 2011 by september. Will USCIS will keep in mind of PWMDS while moving the dates there afterI,e they may have around 300 visas per month to allocate will they keep allocationg them to PWMDs and upgrades through out next year?

Also if the date retrogresses how far it will retrogress . Mine is in May 2007 . So I am wondering if I can get greened within next year before next spillover season starts.


Human mind is so greedy.Earlier I was hopeful that my date will get current and if I would get a chance to file 485 and now that the chances of gettign current are improved, I am hoping to get greencard

[manipur]

In new scenario where we are already in march 07. How the projection looks like. Is there more than 50% chance of dates going beyond July 07

[mpurna77]

With the dates moving forward rapidly, how do we know a case has been pre-adjudicated?

Take Infopass or ask your lawyer or send mail to NCSCFollowup.Nsc@dhs.gov regarding asking about status of your case.

Some people got reply in 3-5 days. As it mentioned under thread 'How to find case got Pre-adjudicated!!!'.

[veni001]

That is key, in the event if you are not able to file if USCIS open a short window to buffer b'se you may not have your new labor approved for that opportunity. But there are 30k EBI&C PERM certifications (~70%EB2)between 2007(incl PWMB) and June 2008 in addition to any porting numbers( may not be very high).

All in all this could generate about 40-45k new EB2I&C demand. Assuming current SOFAD levels will continue for few more years,could take two years to clear that inventory before you get a chance to file your i485 with new i140 and June 2008 PD, if you add processing time and possible FYend/new FY it could be 2-3 years from now.


Q, Veni

someone asked about June2008 PD and you both were saying it could take 3 years, help me understand here

according to Spec, there will be 16,000 EB2IC in calendar 2007 (PWMB and till dec31st) once the backlog is cleared. from Jan to Jun2008, based on perm numbers, the 485 demand will be around 15,000 (65:35 Eb2 and 80% 140 approval rate with 2.2 dependent ratio)

so the number of 485s can be anywhere from 24k to 36k and even if the spillover goes down to last year level, he should get his gc in 2 years. I do see there is a chance for him to get it by sept2012 too.

eitherway, when do you think he will get a chance to file 485

biber,
I clarified in the above post that it could be 2-3 years! 2years if he can apply by Sept 2011, 3-yrs If he miss the boat assuming that USCIS will open gate before end of FY2011 for his/her PD.

[veni001]

Gurus and Pandits,

lets say if the dates move to JUL /AUG 2011 by september. Will USCIS will keep in mind of PWMDS while moving the dates there afterI,e they may have around 300 visas per month to allocate will they keep allocationg them to PWMDs and upgrades through out next year?

Also if the date retrogresses how far it will retrogress . Mine is in May 2007 . So I am wondering if I can get greened within next year before next spillover season starts.


Human mind is so greedy.Earlier I was hopeful that my date will get current and if I would get a chance to file 485 and now that the chances of gettign current are improved, I am hoping to get greencard

GCDespo,
Actually USCIS issued all FY2011 quota for EB2 IND in the first two quarters itself(460 per month), so yes they will continue to issues VISAs for the documentarily qualified/adjudicated applications whose PD is current event if dates retrogress in Oct 2011.

[gccool]

Veni,
Thanks for the clarification.


gccool,
Which is true only if that application is documentarily qualified when PD is current.

[veni001]

Looks Like many Guru's are going to get green by sep'2011. I wondering about analysis in this site after that. Q, Veni, Teddy, Spectator - i think you are going to greened card shortly i do no expect you to be active after that. What are your suggestions for this forums? . I guess There are few other guru's who are got pd in 2008
And Q, I think you started this website( though i am not sure), are you going to keep this website alive?

grnwtg,
Don't worry, we are not going anywhere. But we definitely encourage young-gurus to take the lead.

[grnwtg]

Thank God they release visa bulletin Thursday evening, if it would have been monday, whole week would have gone for discussions. For people beyond July it all depends on fine number of Spill over and uscis thought on whether to accept new applications and if so how many.
My priority is Mar'08 i am very much optimistic in getting EAD in a year, if things go right i might get chance for EAD in sep'11.

Let us hope USCIS to accept new application for 485 atleast till 2008 or make it current.

Thanks to all Guru's for wonderful data you have provided

[gccool]

Spectator,
Thank you for a very clear explanation.
A visa will be issued at the time the application is finally adjudicated IF the PD is still Current at that time.

Many people in July 2007 were Current, but the Cut Off Dates retrogressed to a date equal to or earlier than their PD by the time their case was adjudicated.

[na_dev]

Hi All,

I have been going through this forum for sometime and after seeing July bulletin could not resist myself.

I have a question on Perm Data that is posted in Facts and Data section. I may be wrong. Here is what I did:

1. I downloaded FY2008 perm data from FLCDataCenter.
2. Exported to excel and did a filter on column Country of Citizenship-India. I got 18837 cases. Out of that I again filtered on column Case Status for Certified only( there are other values like Certified-expired, denied and Withdrawn).
3. I Got a Number 7197 as Certified PERM cases for FY 2008 for INDIA.

4. The Fact and Data section in this forum says for FY-2008 total Perm Cases for India are 16,567.

Not sure if FLCdatcenter has correct number of Perms... WIll anyone clarify ?

Thanks!

[vishnu]

na_dev you should include certified and certified-expired. i think fy 08 is about 16500 and fy 09 is about 11500 cases for india (eb2 + eb3). the analysis has been done extensively by veni and is in facts and data.

[lagan2006]

Thank you Veni and ifaith. Sounds like I need to wait for another 6 monts to get my GC in hand. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

[nijor.deha]

hI Gurus,

tHANKS FOR REPLY.If someone can simplify the explanation with regard to na_dev question it will be helpful.
Few simple question

1.How many approved i-140 applicant from Aug-2007 to July 2008 ?Just rough estimate

2.If same spillover takes place how long will it take to clear the case till July 2008?

3.If date become current in sept 2011,what is the chance of getting retrogade back to 2007?Can it even retrogade beyond 2007?








na_dev you should include certified and certified-expired. i think fy 08 is about 16500 and fy 09 is about 11500 cases for india (eb2 + eb3). the analysis has been done extensively by veni and is in facts and data.

[mpurna77]

This is what my lawyer says

"Generally, if a case (I485) is approved before the priority date becomes current, the approval is invalid. Can cause issues in citizenship "

How much is this statement has validity in general sense? any issues anyone faced?

I do see some approvals from 2007 EB2I. which is not current now.

[na_dev]

na_dev you should include certified and certified-expired. i think fy 08 is about 16500 and fy 09 is about 11500 cases for india (eb2 + eb3). the analysis has been done extensively by veni and is in facts and data.


Thanks Vishnu.

I included Certfied and Certified- Expired for FY 2008 and came up with number 16569 Perm Cases for Fy-2008 for India. But I have a question, why we are including Certfied -Expired Perm cases ?

For example , I changed my job and my last perm filed by my then employer was approved but, never used , it must have expired by now (of course it took 20 months to come.. i moved on...)

[bieber]

nijor.deha

if same spill over will come next year, Aug2008 will be cleared

[bieber]

Veni

thanks for response, still need to discuss but may be this is not the right time

what is the difference between certified and certified-expired?

[vishnu]

by default, the system moves it to certified-expired in 6 months time whether or not the i-140 was filed. but yes, you are right, there will be a percentage that never used the perm. which is why it makes sense to apply a haircut on the 16,569 cases (perhaps 10%-20%), before then breaking it down between eb2:eb3 and finally multiplying by 2 to arrive at estimate for 485.

[lagan2006]

Q you will definitely be current next month. Frankly movement till 8th March is beyond all expectations.



Congratulations finally your green hour is approaching.



Thanks for your kind words. Just sit back and relax, I sincerely hope you are greened by Sep 2011.



Many thanks and congratulations I believe you should surely get your GC by Sep 2011, 3 months is sufficient time to process.

Thanks Teddy and Veni.

Teddy, I was happy when I saw your comments but at same time I saw Veni's comment about "Documentarily Qualified" requirement. It sounds like I may or may not get GC by Sept 11.

[kd2008]

Hi All,

I have been going through this forum for sometime and after seeing July bulletin could not resist myself.

I have a question on Perm Data that is posted in Facts and Data section. I may be wrong. Here is what I did:

1. I downloaded FY2008 perm data from FLCDataCenter.
2. Exported to excel and did a filter on column Country of Citizenship-India. I got 18837 cases. Out of that I again filtered on column Case Status for Certified only( there are other values like Certified-expired, denied and Withdrawn).
3. I Got a Number 7197 as Certified PERM cases for FY 2008 for INDIA.

4. The Fact and Data section in this forum says for FY-2008 total Perm Cases for India are 16,567.

Not sure if FLCdatcenter has correct number of Perms... WIll anyone clarify ?

Thanks!

FLCdata for 2008 shows PERM applications approved in 2008. They may have been filed in 2005, 2006, 2007 or 2008. Most PERM applications filed in 2008 were approved in 2009 and 2010. The file number on that data gives the date application was filed - the middle five digits in Julian format. Also one needs to include certified-expired. It simply means the case was approved six months before the data was published. Thats all that it means. Do not exclude them

Gurus on this forum have done extensive research in deciphering that data. That's why their predictions are so rational and close. But more scrutiny is always welcome.


One request to newbies in general --- please please read facts and data first. If you want to compute things yourself first ask how the gurus did it and why and then do your calculations and ask questions.

Please focus on overall predictions and not on when MY MY MY PD is going to be current. Thats why this forum is different. Because it focuses on the collective and is very cordial.

[bieber]

by default, the system moves it to certified-expired in 6 months time whether or not the i-140 was filed. but yes, you are right, there will be a percentage that never used the perm. which is why it makes sense to apply a haircut on the 16,569 cases (perhaps 10%-20%), before then breaking it down between eb2:eb3 and finally multiplying by 2 to arrive at estimate for 485.
if that is the case ,if we are looking at fy2008 data then all cases must appear under certified+expired

[Vishwanathkvs]

Hello Gurus,
My PD is April 23 2008 and would like to know if i stand any chance this year....i want to avoid getting my H1 visa stamped when i got to India in december... at-least get EAD/AP, do you all think it is realistic...

[priyesh]

Hello All,

Could someone please let me know when can I expect to file 485 as per the calculation discussed on this forum ? My PD is April 10, 2008. Min and Max wait time ? Really appreciate your input.

[ragx08]

Though I read this forum regularly this is the first time I'm posting something..... Many people already expressed how good and refreshing the discussion is on this forum - I doubt if anyone disagrees. I just want to add one thing to it...
If I were to build a startup team, I will hire people like you (Q,V,S,T,etc...) - who are competent, collaborate to meet the end result, know how to give space to others - including juniors and make them feel equally important!
Thankyou!

[vishnu]

that is a fair question - but i think the data is as of end fy 2008 (although the file may have been uploaded much later).

[qesehmk]

Even Gods love praise. We are mere mortals!! That is the best praise I have heard. So thank you :)
Though I read this forum regularly this is the first time I'm posting something..... Many people already expressed how good and refreshing the discussion is on this forum - I doubt if anyone disagrees. I just want to add one thing to it...
If I were to build a startup team, I will hire people like you (Q,V,S,T,etc...) - who are competent, collaborate to meet the end result, know how to give space to others - including juniors and make them feel equally important!
Thankyou!

[ragx08]

EB-2I 07/2008, I140 approved. Employer moved operations (> 35mi). Current work location may or may not be operational after a year..... Decided to move to the new location next month. Filing new PERM & I140 from new location - retaining the old PD. Now, before the new PERM is approved if my PD becomes current (remote chances though - but would like to know what I might run into), the company lawyer says I can still apply for I485 with a letter of intent from the employer and me saying the I intend to move back to the current location on greened!
1. Is that possible?
2. If it is and it happens, would it have any impact on AC21 in future - if need arises?
3. What happens if at the time of approval the current location is not operational?

[qesehmk]

1. Possible.
2. If AC21 eligible, no impact.
3. Don't know. You need a lawyer.

Additionally why not stay in place and wait for 485 to be filed. Meanwhile the second PERM at the new location can be applied.
EB-2I 07/2008, I140 approved. Employer moved operations (> 35mi). Current work location may or may not be operational after a year..... Decided to move to the new location next month. Filing new PERM & I140 from new location - retaining the old PD. Now, before the new PERM is approved if my PD becomes current (remote chances though - but would like to know what I might run into), the company lawyer says I can still apply for I485 with a letter of intent from the employer and me saying the I intend to move back to the current location on greened!
1. Is that possible?
2. If it is and it happens, would it have any impact on AC21 in future - if need arises?
3. What happens if at the time of approval the current location is not operational?

[ragx08]

Q,
Thanks for the response. I'm not hoping my PD to become current soon - but if for some reason the PERM gets delayed, I could end up in that situation.

[bieber]

no offense to any one, but the beauty of this forum is helping people understand the procedure and decide themselves.
I feel if someone asks 'this is my PD, when do i get gc',they are ignoring a chance to learn

[bieber]

Though I read this forum regularly this is the first time I'm posting something..... Many people already expressed how good and refreshing the discussion is on this forum - I doubt if anyone disagrees. I just want to add one thing to it...
If I were to build a startup team, I will hire people like you (Q,V,S,T,etc...) - who are competent, collaborate to meet the end result, know how to give space to others - including juniors and make them feel equally important!
Thankyou! on a lighter note, why would you not consider working for them? :)

[kd2008]

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

It says there is no data available.

Whats going on?

[grnwtg]

if that is the case ,if we are looking at fy2008 data then all cases must appear under certified+expired

Probably not all of them as some of them priority date would be in 2007, correct me if I am wrong. So as kd2008 explained, we also need to go by file number which includes date of aplication filed. As mentioned by many this data is already explored but not wrong to do it again by a fresh mind for better calculations or to become a guru and replace some of the wonderful people here

[soggadu]

this guy predicts it to be current for whole EB2 or 1 qtr of 2008 by sep 2011... what do you guys think....


http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/06/july-2011-visa-bulletin-and-eb-category.html

[Spectator]

that is a fair question - but i think the data is as of end fy 2008 (although the file may have been uploaded much later).
As vishnu said, at the time the FY2008 data was published, the last 6 months certifications had not expired.

We have discussed this topic several times in the 100 odd pages and many people have confirmed that, although their case shows as Certified-Expired, they did in fact submit an I-140 within 180 days.

There is not going to be any communication channels between USCIS and DOL to say if an I-140 was ever submitted, so the cases automatically become Certified-Expired after 180 days. In fact, it is a meaningless distinction, which did not exist until FY2008.

Regarding PERMs that are Certified without an I-140 being submitted within 180 days, that will be a vanishingly small number, representing the exception rather than the rule. PERM is expensive and time consuming - it is not entered into lightly, especially after Labor Substitution was stopped.

[bieber]

Probably not all of them as some of them priority date would be in 2007, correct me if I am wrong. So as kd2008 explained, we also need to go by file number which includes date of aplication filed. As mentioned by many this data is already explored but not wrong to do it again by a fresh mind for better calculations or to become a guru and replace some of the wonderful people here
I separately created file for only 2008 (based on the file name julian logic) and it has both certified and certified+expired, I excluded everything before 1st jan 2008. I don't have it right now but will post later

as far as I remember, we collectively agreed to include both to be on safer side for calculations

[Spectator]

this guy predicts it to be current for whole EB2 or 1 qtr of 2008 by sep 2011... what do you guys think....


http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.com/2011/06/july-2011-visa-bulletin-and-eb-category.html
Personally, I have a lot of time for whoever runs that blog.

They also say the dates might not move, so they are just reiterating that DOS may have choices, but no-one can predict what will happen.

I don't think that differs from anyone's view here. Individually, everyone might have their own personal opinion, but beyond that it is guessing.

We'll only know when the September VB is released.

[bieber]

Spec

what's your take on setting up Dec2007 or Q1 2008 or Aug1/Oct1 2008 Date?

If CIS wants to build inventory, it's better for them to collect more than taking a few every year. I'm thinking 'extrapolating their logic of strict movement while inventory is known and applying the same logic for building pipeline is not apt'

having said that I know they can do anything and just may leave the date in 2007 once they see PWMB and will be in a situation to make it C will be their only option left in Q3 fy 2012.

[neospeed]

Q and others, whoever is in contact with the source with CO. Do we have any info from CO how is the trend going forward with AUG and SEP VB?.

happy, happier, happiest ? :)

[ragx08]

on a lighter note, why would you not consider working for them? :)

Well, thats because all I see here is good 'team-play'. Moreover, if you have a team like this, you don't need someone to manage it (beauty of startups - where building a team does not imply you manage it)!!

BTW, I was not referring to just the QVST quartet, you missed my "etc" which includes many others like you that contribute!!! Keep up the good work.....

[03May07]

this guy predicts it to be current for whole EB2 or 1 qtr of 2008 by sep 2011... what do you guys think....


http://us-non-immigrants.blogspot.co...-category.html
-------------------------------------------

Personally, I have a lot of time for whoever runs that blog.

They also say the dates might not move, so they are just reiterating that DOS may have choices, but no-one can predict what will happen.

I don't think that differs from anyone's view here. Individually, everyone might have their own personal opinion, but beyond that it is guessing.

We'll only know when the September VB is released.

That person, whoever is posting the EBI&C prediction on that blogspot, is also using the word "PWMBs". Is that a standard abbreviation in EB2 forums or is this person using the data on this thread and forgetting to quote the source?

[GC-Utopic]

Once the date moves past July 2007, will there be a significant EB3-EB2 porting of late 2007 and 2008 EB3 PD's? Or it will be negated by the fact that actual EB3 filings are low post summer of '07, just curious about that variable,

[kd2008]

Once the date moves past July 2007, will there be a significant EB3-EB2 porting of late 2007 and 2008 EB3 PD's? Or it will be negated by the fact that actual EB3 filings are low post summer of '07, just curious about that variable,

Please take a look at this poll and draw your conclusions:
http://www.micropoll.com/a/mpresult/1067045-399455

[qesehmk]

PWMB, SOFAD, ROWMP and much more is our own lingo (and actually even the concepts at times) that now many people use it.

Its possible that the guy is using our forum ... but that's ok. Let good thoughts come from all directions and go to all directions.


That person, whoever is posting the EBI&C prediction on that blogspot, is also using the word "PWMBs". Is that a standard abbreviation in EB2 forums or is this person using the data on this thread and forgetting to quote the source?

[neospeed]

Total Spill over expected this year = 32k
June VB: 9k released
July VB: 12k released
Aug VB: 9k ?
Sep VB: 2K ?

PWMB will generate some demand for next year with this approach ,any feedback guys?

[Spectator]

PWMB, SOFAD, ROWMP and much more is our own lingo (and actually even the concepts at times) that now many people use it.

Its possible that the guy is using our forum ... but that's ok. Let good thoughts come from all directions and go to all directions.I think you invented a whole new language around the calculations.

I see all those terms used very generically these days, even though they were first coined by you (presumably in the original IV thread).

I think they probably do look at this forum a lot, because some of the modifications have taken place just after they were discussed here (some of the PERM analysis discussions in particular). They should cite the source, but that doesn't always happen. Their tool and calculations are a lot better because of it, so I see that as a positive contribution.

The guy seems pretty knowledgeable and answers everybody's questions.

[pch053]

Hasn't there been some spillover (~3K) already used up by the May bulletin when the PDs moved by ~2 months. The numbers might look like below and the big unknowns are the next two months. My hunch (following last year's trend) is that most of the movement will be in Aug, though dates might move a lot (and then retrogress) if they decide to take in more application during Sep.

Total Spill over expected this year = 30K - 35K?
May VB: 3K released
June VB: 9k released
July VB: 12k released
Aug VB: ??
Sep VB: ??

[neospeed]

Hasn't there been some spillover (~3K) already used up by the May bulletin when the PDs moved by ~2 months. The numbers might look like below and the big unknowns are the next two months. My hunch (following last year's trend) is that most of the movement will be in Aug, though dates might move a lot (and then retrogress) if they decide to take in more application during Sep.

Total Spill over expected this year = 30K - 35K?
May VB: 3K released
June VB: 9k released
July VB: 12k released
Aug VB: ??
Sep VB: ??

I think May was regular cap?

[pch053]

The regular cap is 2800 visas and most of it might have been consumed prior to May through EB3->EB2 porting and any old pending cases. If it was from regular cap, I would have expected the dates to have moved even earlier.

[Spectator]

I think May was regular cap?

CO explained in the notes for the May 2011 VB that EB2-I had already used its annual limit and was now using spillover visas per Section 202(a)(5).


For example, at present the India Employment Second preference cut-off date governs the use of numbers under Section 202(a)(5), India having reached its Employment Second annual limit; the China Employment Second preference cut-off date governs number use under the quarterly limit, since China has not yet reached its Employment Second annual limit.

The latest that EB2-I was using the regular cap was in April 2011.

[ChampU]

Hasn't there been some spillover (~3K) already used up by the May bulletin when the PDs moved by ~2 months. The numbers might look like below and the big unknowns are the next two months. My hunch (following last year's trend) is that most of the movement will be in Aug, though dates might move a lot (and then retrogress) if they decide to take in more application during Sep.

Total Spill over expected this year = 30K - 35K?
May VB: 3K released
June VB: 9k released
July VB: 12k released
Aug VB: ??
Sep VB: ??

If another 12k come through the existing inventory would be exhausted. That would make the SOFAD to 36k which is a lot closer to the high limit of the anticipated SOFAD (37k)..
Hope to undo all my education and start to spell September with a "C"...

[GCPagla]

Hi,
I am new user to the thread. I have been following this thread for quite sometime now. It won't be an exagarration to say that this is the only forum which does realistic data analysis in relation with visa number availibility, keeping aside all the other unwanted and unnecessary stuffs. I have stopped going to all the other forums once I found this forum as this forum maintains more healthy and to the point discussion. Also we have most extraordinary data crunchers and analyzers here. kudos to Q, Spec, veni, Biber all all the significant contributors.

I have one question for you wise ones. I PD is 02/26/07, which is current as per the latest visa bulletin. I had started job hunt couple of months back. Now I have two offer letters, both from two very respected Fortune 500 organizations, in my hand with joining date of July first week. I did not know that my PD was about to be current, which is why I had looked for the job switch in the first place. Now obviously I long for GC more than this opportunity and would let this offerlttters pass. But I read in this thread that after September DOS is going to retrogress the date back. My question is what is the possibility that it would retrogress to a date prior to 02/26/07?

I am just trying to avoid a case where I leave these jobs and ended up in a situation where my PD is not current anymore, few months down the line.

Thanking you in advance.

[pch053]

I am in a somewhat similar situation with my PD being July'07 which might be current in the Aug or Sep bulletin. I am thinking of whether to take a job offer where I am supposed to start the new job sometime during Aug (Sep latest). In my case, I have already used AC21 provision once (I forwarded the docs to USCIS then), so my original petitioner is my ex-employer and I have no issues like employer revoking I140, etc. As of now, I like the job a lot and I am inclined towards taking the new offer but haven't reached a final decision yet.

In your scenario, I don't see an issue if you join your new job during 1st week of July. Not sure, you will be working on EAD or H1Br, but if you have all your documents in place you can switch jobs assuming your new job has similar job duties as the one mentioned in your Labor. It is up to you whether you want to proactively submit AC21 docs or want to wait for USCIS to issue a RFE (if any).

I will look forward to hear others input on this! At the end of the day, every person will have his/her own viewpoint and it boils down to their own decision.

[Spectator]

GCPagla,

It is not entirely clear whether you already have an I-485 pending, whether AC21 portability has been achieved, or are waiting to file an I-485.

To answer your question, personally, I see no prospect of retrogression to a date before your PD of 02/26/07.

[veni001]

Hi,
I am new user to the thread. I have been following this thread for quite sometime now. It won't be an exagarration to say that this is the only forum which does realistic data analysis in relation with visa number availibility, keeping aside all the other unwanted and unnecessary stuffs. I have stopped going to all the other forums once I found this forum as this forum maintains more healthy and to the point discussion. Also we have most extraordinary data crunchers and analyzers here. kudos to Q, Spec, veni, Biber all all the significant contributors.

I have one question for you wise ones. I PD is 02/26/07, which is current as per the latest visa bulletin. I had started job hunt couple of months back. Now I have two offer letters, both from two very respected Fortune 500 organizations, in my hand with joining date of July first week. I did not know that my PD was about to be current, which is why I had looked for the job switch in the first place. Now obviously I long for GC more than this opportunity and would let this offer lttters pass. But I read in this thread that after September DOS is going to retrogress the date back. My question is what is the possibility that it would retrogress to a date prior to 02/26/07?

I am just trying to avoid a case where I leave these jobs and ended up in a situation where my PD is not current anymore, few months down the line.

Thanking you in advance.

At current pace the chances of retrogressing to Feb 2007 is very minimal or none. If you have already applied for AOS and your i485 is pre-adjudicated then you should expect approval by mid July!

[qesehmk]

First I agree w Spec in terms of retro. I will go one step ahead and say .... any date movement upto May 2007 is sustainable. Beyond that the chances that dates will retrogress start increasing.

As per job "offer" - I think an offer works for USCIS. So either it's current job or a job offer. However it is still advisable to talk to a lawyer since I do not know if a gap between GC approved date and Job Start Date is ok? And if so ... how much gap is ok.



Hi,
I am new user to the thread. I have been following this thread for quite sometime now. It won't be an exagarration to say that this is the only forum which does realistic data analysis in relation with visa number availibility, keeping aside all the other unwanted and unnecessary stuffs. I have stopped going to all the other forums once I found this forum as this forum maintains more healthy and to the point discussion. Also we have most extraordinary data crunchers and analyzers here. kudos to Q, Spec, veni, Biber all all the significant contributors.

I have one question for you wise ones. I PD is 02/26/07, which is current as per the latest visa bulletin. I had started job hunt couple of months back. Now I have two offer letters, both from two very respected Fortune 500 organizations, in my hand with joining date of July first week. I did not know that my PD was about to be current, which is why I had looked for the job switch in the first place. Now obviously I long for GC more than this opportunity and would let this offerlttters pass. But I read in this thread that after September DOS is going to retrogress the date back. My question is what is the possibility that it would retrogress to a date prior to 02/26/07?

I am just trying to avoid a case where I leave these jobs and ended up in a situation where my PD is not current anymore, few months down the line.

Thanking you in advance.


I am in a somewhat similar situation with my PD being July'07 which might be current in the Aug or Sep bulletin. I am thinking of whether to take a job offer where I am supposed to start the new job sometime during Aug (Sep latest). In my case, I have already used AC21 provision once (I forwarded the docs to USCIS then), so my original petitioner is my ex-employer and I have no issues like employer revoking I140, etc. As of now, I like the job a lot and I am inclined towards taking the new offer but haven't reached a final decision yet.

In your scenario, I don't see an issue if you join your new job during 1st week of July. Not sure, you will be working on EAD or H1Br, but if you have all your documents in place you can switch jobs assuming your new job has similar job duties as the one mentioned in your Labor. It is up to you whether you want to proactively submit AC21 docs or want to wait for USCIS to issue a RFE (if any).

I will look forward to hear others input on this! At the end of the day, every person will have his/her own viewpoint and it boils down to their own decision.

[pch053]

I do agree its better to consult a good lawyer for the "gap" between the start date of the job and the approved date of GC. Just from a logical standpoint, I feel that if the gap is of the order of weeks to a month, it will be just fine as GC is related to a future job offer and one can need some leeway (say a few weeks) to start the job after receiving the Green Card. However, if the gap is longer (say > 3 months) then it will probably raise questions. But, again these are just my thoughts and I absolutely have no clue about the gap of employment between GC approval date and date of starting the new job. In case, I decide to switch jobs, I will surely check with the company's lawyer on this.

[gcseeker]

Q

I am a little surprised with the post.I hope you mean if the dates move very quickly in the next two bulletins to beyond May 2007 then retrogression is possible for couple of months.Though would not the start of the next Fiscal year start movement in the dates again.I thought from Teddy's post buried a few pages back talking about movement beyond Aug bulletin that USCIS might decide to an inventory buildup for the future and that Q3 2012 might give some good news with folks with PD post May/June 2007.

Could you please clarify what kind of retrogression you would be expecting and the possible timeline till which retrogression might apply.


First I agree w Spec in terms of retro. I will go one step ahead and say .... any date movement upto May 2007 is sustainable. Beyond that the chances that dates will retrogress start increasing.

As per job "offer" - I think an offer works for USCIS. So either it's current job or a job offer. However it is still advisable to talk to a lawyer since I do not know if a gap between GC approved date and Job Start Date is ok? And if so ... how much gap is ok.

[gcforever]

Q,

Appreciate your response. Not that I can do anything about it, why do you think it's gonaa take 5 years? Currently people with PD of Mar 2007 getting green. That's slightly more than 4 years. Based on that don't you think, it will be 4 years or less. Things are getting SLIGHTLY better and predictable. Am I missing something? Is Jul 2007 fiasco has anything to do with?

Another question - do you think they can repeat Jul 2007 in next couple of years?


You got it PCH!


Sure. Will do.


Rule of thumb is 5 years.


Jun 2008 should get GC in 3 years max from now. I would suggest weigh carefully current slavery for 3 years vs next job slavery for 6 yrs and then make a decision. I wish you could use AC21. But unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the case

[GCPagla]

Thanks Q, veni, Spec and all for your response. Yes, I forgot to provide more aspects about my situation. My 485 is filed during the 2007 dream time (AKA fiasco). I have already used AC21 to switch job in 2009 and my current status is AOS (I am on EAD). My 6 years on H1B completed way back in 2008.

As far as preadjudicated or not, is there a way to understand that. My 485 application has a LUD on 08/2010. I do not have any idea why it was touched during that time. But not sure if any action has been done on it. I had sent my Ac21 support letter, provided by current employer, through my lawyer in 2009. But my 485 did not show any LUD then. And then suddenly one fine day in August 2010, I saw the LUD changed.

[veni001]

Thanks Q, veni, Spec and all for your response. Yes, I forgot to provide more aspects about my situation. My 485 is filed during the 2007 dream time (AKA fiasco). I have already used AC21 to switch job in 2009 and my current status is AOS (I am on EAD). My 6 years on H1B completed way back in 2008.

As far as preadjudicated or not, is there a way to understand that. My 485 application has a LUD on 08/2010. I do not have any idea why it was touched during that time. But not sure if any action has been done on it. I had sent my Ac21 support letter, provided by current employer, through my lawyer in 2009. But my 485 did not show any LUD then. And then suddenly one fine day in August 2010, I saw the LUD changed.

Technically you are only few weeks awy from GC approval, If i am in your situation i would for the approval. Good Luck!

[veni001]

Q,

Appreciate your response. Not that I can do anything about it, why do you think it's gonaa take 5 years? Currently people with PD of Mar 2007 getting green. That's slightly more than 4 years. Based on that don't you think, it will be 4 years or less. Things are getting SLIGHTLY better and predictable. Am I missing something? Is Jul 2007 fiasco has anything to do with?

Another question - do you think they can repeat Jul 2007 in next couple of years?

gcforeve,
You might have noticed from our previous posts by now! We wanted to keep predictions/estimates on the conservative side.

We all have to agree that economy played big role when comes to SOFAD in the last couple of years ( less EB1, EB2ROW...etc), which may not be true in the coming years. If economy goes further south we may see more SOFAD,if not it may not be that much. So there are several variables that could impact our predictions here but, based on data on hand Rule of 5 is a good estimate for EB2I&C.

[qesehmk]

May 2007 is sustainable as per our calculations. I could be wrong by +2 months. But I almost guarantee 100% that the dates will retrogress if they move anywhere around Q4 2007 and beyond. My guess would be that the dates will settle around a month where backlog as of Oct 2007 will be around 1000-1500.

Teddy may have slightly different view point. And that's fine because all of us are really guessing - only in a bit intelligent manner.


Q

I am a little surprised with the post.I hope you mean if the dates move very quickly in the next two bulletins to beyond May 2007 then retrogression is possible for couple of months.Though would not the start of the next Fiscal year start movement in the dates again.I thought from Teddy's post buried a few pages back talking about movement beyond Aug bulletin that USCIS might decide to an inventory buildup for the future and that Q3 2012 might give some good news with folks with PD post May/June 2007.

Could you please clarify what kind of retrogression you would be expecting and the possible timeline till which retrogression might apply.

Yes agree. Typically 5 yrs is a rule of thumb.Some people get lucky and get it in 2 years. Some wait till 10 years. Whether they will repeat July 2007? My guess is they should .... just to make sure they don't lose all this talent. If you were an economist or a policy maker... why would you want to lose hundreds of thousands of people who are providing competitive edge to the economy? Trust me .... there are very very pragmatic people up there who decide these kind of policies and these date movements are not as arbitrary as people think.


Q,

Appreciate your response. Not that I can do anything about it, why do you think it's gonaa take 5 years? Currently people with PD of Mar 2007 getting green. That's slightly more than 4 years. Based on that don't you think, it will be 4 years or less. Things are getting SLIGHTLY better and predictable. Am I missing something? Is Jul 2007 fiasco has anything to do with?

Another question - do you think they can repeat Jul 2007 in next couple of years?


If I were to bet I would bet with very high odds that you are already preadjudicated. For the benefit of everybody who filed in Jul 2007, I think the same.


Thanks Q, veni, Spec and all for your response. Yes, I forgot to provide more aspects about my situation. My 485 is filed during the 2007 dream time (AKA fiasco). I have already used AC21 to switch job in 2009 and my current status is AOS (I am on EAD). My 6 years on H1B completed way back in 2008.

As far as preadjudicated or not, is there a way to understand that. My 485 application has a LUD on 08/2010. I do not have any idea why it was touched during that time. But not sure if any action has been done on it. I had sent my Ac21 support letter, provided by current employer, through my lawyer in 2009. But my 485 did not show any LUD then. And then suddenly one fine day in August 2010, I saw the LUD changed.

[gcforever]

Well, my first PERM was denied after 2 years, so I understand luck factor.

Why can't they just give EAD after I-140 and give GC when PD becomes current. In employment category, anyway people are already working and paying taxes. EAD will give them sense of stability, flexibilty in changing jobs etc. It's good quick relief.


May 2007 is sustainable as per our calculations. I could be wrong by +2 months. But I almost guarantee 100% that the dates will retrogress if they move anywhere around Q4 2007 and beyond. My guess would be that the dates will settle around a month where backlog as of Oct 2007 will be around 1000-1500.

Teddy may have slightly different view point. And that's fine because all of us are really guessing - only in a bit intelligent manner.



Yes agree. Typically 5 yrs is a rule of thumb.Some people get lucky and get it in 2 years. Some wait till 10 years. Whether they will repeat July 2007? My guess is they should .... just to make sure they don't lose all this talent. If you were an economist or a policy maker... why would you want to lose hundreds of thousands of people who are providing competitive edge to the economy? Trust me .... there are very very pragmatic people up there who decide these kind of policies and these date movements are not as arbitrary as people think.




If I were to bet I would bet with very high odds that you are already preadjudicated. For the benefit of everybody who filed in Jul 2007, I think the same.

[pch053]

BC affidavit is required only for applicant who don't have BC.

[pch053]

This is a slightly off topic question and more for my knowledge. I have seen in various posts in trackitt and other places where people ask at least how long one should work for the same employer after GC has been approved, i.e what will be a "safe" time to stick with the employer before moving on to a probably better job opportunity. I have heard varying answers ranging from one can move to a different job whenever s/he wants after getting green card to one should at least work for a 6 months to a year with the GC sponsoring employer (or the employer during the time of GC approval). The caveat for not following the 6 month (or 1 year) suggestion is one might face consequences during citizenship interview (5 years down the line) or renewing green card (10 years down the line). Does anyone have any input or first hand experience on this issue?

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

I would imagine that with AC21 that thing has gone out of the window. Others please chime in if you have insights. Its a good question.


This is a slightly off topic question and more for my knowledge. I have seen in various posts in trackitt and other places where people ask at least how long one should work for the same employer after GC has been approved, i.e what will be a "safe" time to stick with the employer before moving on to a probably better job opportunity. I have heard varying answers ranging from one can move to a different job whenever s/he wants after getting green card to one should at least work for a 6 months to a year with the GC sponsoring employer (or the employer during the time of GC approval). The caveat for not following the 6 month (or 1 year) suggestion is one might face consequences during citizenship interview (5 years down the line) or renewing green card (10 years down the line). Does anyone have any input or first hand experience on this issue?

Thanks!

[kd2008]

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Updated on June 11, 11.

Dates as of April 30, 11.

I-485 - EB TSC OCT 31, 2010
I-485 - EB NSC DEC 2, 2010

This is surest sign that all immigration is policy driven. Laws be damned. I wouldn't be surprised if dates go past Aug 2007 next bulletin. USCIS seems to be deliberate in not processing new cases. Something is cooking.

Of Course, in the end it will all cancel out. Next year EB2 I&C will get proportionately less spillover. But hey, if we all get to file our I-485 then amen to that!

[qesehmk]

Agree w everything .... except "Laws be damned". Laws are followed but with an interpretation that suits the policy. And that's how it should be.




https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Updated on June 11, 11.

Dates as of April 30, 11.

I-485 - EB TSC OCT 31, 2010
I-485 - EB NSC DEC 2, 2010

This is surest sign that all immigration is policy driven. Laws be damned. I wouldn't be surprised if dates go past Aug 2007 next bulletin. USCIS seems to be deliberate in not processing new cases. Something is cooking.

Of Course, in the end it will all cancel out. Next year EB2 I&C will get proportionately less spillover. But hey, if we all get to file our I-485 then amen to that!

[veni001]

This is a slightly off topic question and more for my knowledge. I have seen in various posts in trackitt and other places where people ask at least how long one should work for the same employer after GC has been approved, i.e what will be a "safe" time to stick with the employer before moving on to a probably better job opportunity. I have heard varying answers ranging from one can move to a different job whenever s/he wants after getting green card to one should at least work for a 6 months to a year with the GC sponsoring employer (or the employer during the time of GC approval). The caveat for not following the 6 month (or 1 year) suggestion is one might face consequences during citizenship interview (5 years down the line) or renewing green card (10 years down the line). Does anyone have any input or first hand experience on this issue?

Thanks!


I would imagine that with AC21 that thing has gone out of the window. Others please chime in if you have insights. Its a good question.

AC21 gave portability and other provisions while AOS is pending, unless otherwise sponsoring employer can not offer the job right after GC approval, following 6 month (or 1 year) suggestion is the best practice if one want to change employer after GC.

[qesehmk]

The reason I said what i said is .... if somebody can change employment based on same or similar philosophy then there is nothing sacrosanct about when that philosophy could be applied. On the contrary the law has ALWAYS been mute about how long a person should work for teh sponsor? So it could be technically one day and the law is helpless. I do not know instances or examples of people being stripped of GC because of change of job or people having problems with citizenship. If others do please share.


AC21 gave portability and other provisions while AOS is pending, unless otherwise sponsoring employer can not offer the job right after GC approval, following 6 month (or 1 year) suggestion is the best practice if one want to change employer after GC.

[formailer]

Hi any comments on the priority dates for EB2. EB2-I is showing was Mar-07 ? any comments

[nayekal]

To file I485, do we need to submit the offer with current job description or is it going to be with the job that we are in at the time of filing I140.

[veni001]

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Updated on June 11, 11.

Dates as of April 30, 11.

I-485 - EB TSC OCT 31, 2010
I-485 - EB NSC DEC 2, 2010

This is surest sign that all immigration is policy driven. Laws be damned. I wouldn't be surprised if dates go past Aug 2007 next bulletin. USCIS seems to be deliberate in not processing new cases. Something is cooking.

Of Course, in the end it will all cancel out. Next year EB2 I&C will get proportionately less spillover. But hey, if we all get to file our I-485 then amen to that!

kd2008,
I would agree to some extent, but how EB1 & EB2ROW demand change coming next year will be the key.

[veni001]

To file I485, do we need to submit the offer with current job description or is it going to be with the job that we are in at the time of filing I140.

nayekal,
As long as the change in current job description with the job description filed with original i140 is less than 50% you should be Okay. If the change in job description is more then 50% and/or change in job location then one need to start all over again!

[nayekal]

nayekal,
As long as the change in current job description with the job description filed with original i140 is less than 50% you should be Okay. If the change in job description is more then 50% and/or change in job location then one need to start all over again!

Thanks Veni.

[veni001]

Below table include PERM approvals for I&C after July 2007 with PD in 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 - FY2011 -- Total
Jan-07 --- 42 ------ 29 ----- 17 ------ 1 ----- 3 ------ 92
Feb-07 --- 78 ------ 53 ----- 25 ------ 5 ----- 1 ----- 162
Mar-07 -- 167 ------ 56 ----- 17 ------ 4 ----- 1 ----- 245
Apr-07 -- 313 ------ 99 ----- 37 ------ 4 ----- 0 ----- 453
May-07 -- 502 ----- 129 ----- 45 ----- 10 ----- 2 ----- 688
Jun-07 -- 667 ----- 347 ----- 57 ----- 13 ----- 3 --- 1,087
Jul-07 -- 596 ----- 550 ---- 160 ----- 19 ----- 2 --- 1,327
Aug-07 -- 811 --- 1,161 ---- 259 ----- 62 ----- 7 --- 2,300
Sep-07 -- 469 --- 1,958 ---- 303 ---- 116 ----- 6 --- 2,852
Oct-07 -- 793 --- 2,084 ---- 150 ---- 262 ----- 6 --- 3,295
Nov-07 -- 328 --- 1,990 ----- 35 ---- 345 ----- 5 --- 2,703
Dec-07 --- 76 --- 1,805 ----- 36 ---- 362 ---- 12 --- 2,291
Total - 4,842 -- 10,261 -- 1,141 -- 1,203 ---- 48 -- 17,495
Note:This table include both EB2 & EB3 PERM approvals for I&C

[neospeed]

Below table include PERM approvals for I&C after July 2007 with PD in 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 - FY2011 -- Total
Jan-07 --- 42 ------ 29 ----- 17 ------ 1 ----- 3 ------ 92
Feb-07 --- 78 ------ 53 ----- 25 ------ 5 ----- 1 ----- 162
Mar-07 -- 167 ------ 56 ----- 17 ------ 4 ----- 1 ----- 245
Apr-07 -- 313 ------ 99 ----- 37 ------ 4 ----- 0 ----- 453
May-07 -- 502 ----- 129 ----- 45 ----- 10 ----- 2 ----- 688
Jun-07 -- 667 ----- 347 ----- 57 ----- 13 ----- 3 --- 1,087
Jul-07 -- 596 ----- 550 ---- 160 ----- 19 ----- 2 --- 1,327
Aug-07 -- 811 --- 1,161 ---- 259 ----- 62 ----- 7 --- 2,300
Sep-07 -- 469 --- 1,958 ---- 303 ---- 116 ----- 6 --- 2,852
Oct-07 -- 793 --- 2,084 ---- 150 ---- 262 ----- 6 --- 3,295
Nov-07 -- 328 --- 1,990 ----- 35 ---- 345 ----- 5 --- 2,703
Dec-07 --- 76 --- 1,805 ----- 36 ---- 362 ---- 12 --- 2,291
Total - 4,842 -- 10,261 -- 1,141 -- 1,203 ---- 48 -- 17,495
Note:This table include both EB2 & EB3 PERM approvals for I&C

So this adds 4054 (eb2:eb3 = 50:50) additional visa numbers to cover until the end of July 2007 eb2?

[Spectator]

Below table include PERM approvals for I&C after July 2007 with PD in 2007.

- PD -- FY2007 - FY2008 - FY2009 - FY2010 - FY2011 -- Total
Jan-07 --- 42 ------ 29 ----- 17 ------ 1 ----- 3 ------ 92
Feb-07 --- 78 ------ 53 ----- 25 ------ 5 ----- 1 ----- 162
Mar-07 -- 167 ------ 56 ----- 17 ------ 4 ----- 1 ----- 245
Apr-07 -- 313 ------ 99 ----- 37 ------ 4 ----- 0 ----- 453
May-07 -- 502 ----- 129 ----- 45 ----- 10 ----- 2 ----- 688
Jun-07 -- 667 ----- 347 ----- 57 ----- 13 ----- 3 --- 1,087
Jul-07 -- 596 ----- 550 ---- 160 ----- 19 ----- 2 --- 1,327
Aug-07 -- 811 --- 1,161 ---- 259 ----- 62 ----- 7 --- 2,300
Sep-07 -- 469 --- 1,958 ---- 303 ---- 116 ----- 6 --- 2,852
Oct-07 -- 793 --- 2,084 ---- 150 ---- 262 ----- 6 --- 3,295
Nov-07 -- 328 --- 1,990 ----- 35 ---- 345 ----- 5 --- 2,703
Dec-07 --- 76 --- 1,805 ----- 36 ---- 362 ---- 12 --- 2,291
Total - 4,842 -- 10,261 -- 1,141 -- 1,203 ---- 48 -- 17,495
Note:This table include both EB2 & EB3 PERM approvals for I&C

Veni,

I think we've been here before. I pretty much agree with your bottom line totals, but my monthly breakdown is different.

- PD -- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 --- Total ---- %
Jan-07 ---- 58 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 ----- 108 --- 0.62%
Feb-07 --- 125 ------ 42 ------ 22 ------- 5 ------- 1 ----- 195 --- 1.12%
Mar-07 --- 259 ------ 55 ------ 18 ------- 4 ------- 1 ----- 337 --- 1.93%
Apr-07 --- 702 ------ 71 ------ 24 ------- 3 ------- 0 ----- 800 --- 4.58%
May-07 --- 804 ----- 141 ------ 49 ------ 11 ------- 2 --- 1,007 --- 5.76%
Jun-07 --- 838 ----- 303 ------ 68 ------ 13 ------- 2 --- 1,224 --- 7.00%
Jul-07 - 1,206 ----- 523 ----- 176 ------ 26 ------- 3 --- 1,934 -- 11.06%
Aug-07 --- 750 --- 1,189 ----- 251 ------ 85 ------- 7 --- 2,282 -- 13.05%
Sep-07 --- 100 --- 1,781 ----- 297 ----- 109 ------- 6 --- 2,293 -- 13.11%
Oct-07 ----- 0 --- 2,187 ----- 148 ----- 286 ------- 5 --- 2,626 -- 15.02%
Nov-07 ----- 0 --- 2,016 ------ 35 ----- 376 ------- 6 --- 2,433 -- 13.91%
Dec-07 ----- 0 --- 1,914 ------ 36 ----- 284 ------ 12 --- 2,246 -- 12.85%
Total -- 4,842 -- 10,251 --- 1,141 --- 1,203 ------ 48 -- 17,485 - 100.00%

I've checked my data and can't find an error in the month determination.

In your table, you have PD of Oct-Dec 2007 Certified in FY2007. That is not possible, because FY2007 finished on September 30, 2007. The earliest they can have been Certified is FY2008.

[veni001]

So this adds 4054 (eb2:eb3 = 50:50) additional visa numbers to cover until the end of July 2007 eb2?

Based on Spec's numbers we are looking at about 5.6 k I&C PERM approvals until July 2007, also couple of hundreds from FY 2006. I would take 70:30 (or at least 65:35) for EB2:EB3 split, and 15-20% denial rate at i140. This will generate about 6k PWMB until July 2007.


Veni,

I think we've been here before. I pretty much agree with your bottom line totals, but my monthly breakdown is different.

- PD -- FY2007 -- FY2008 -- FY2009 -- FY2010 -- FY2011 --- Total ---- %
Jan-07 ---- 58 ------ 29 ------ 17 ------- 1 ------- 3 ----- 108 --- 0.62%
Feb-07 --- 125 ------ 42 ------ 22 ------- 5 ------- 1 ----- 195 --- 1.12%
Mar-07 --- 259 ------ 55 ------ 18 ------- 4 ------- 1 ----- 337 --- 1.93%
Apr-07 --- 702 ------ 71 ------ 24 ------- 3 ------- 0 ----- 800 --- 4.58%
May-07 --- 804 ----- 141 ------ 49 ------ 11 ------- 2 --- 1,007 --- 5.76%
Jun-07 --- 838 ----- 303 ------ 68 ------ 13 ------- 2 --- 1,224 --- 7.00%
Jul-07 - 1,206 ----- 523 ----- 176 ------ 26 ------- 3 --- 1,934 -- 11.06%
Aug-07 --- 750 --- 1,189 ----- 251 ------ 85 ------- 7 --- 2,282 -- 13.05%
Sep-07 --- 100 --- 1,781 ----- 297 ----- 109 ------- 6 --- 2,293 -- 13.11%
Oct-07 ----- 0 --- 2,187 ----- 148 ----- 286 ------- 5 --- 2,626 -- 15.02%
Nov-07 ----- 0 --- 2,016 ------ 35 ----- 376 ------- 6 --- 2,433 -- 13.91%
Dec-07 ----- 0 --- 1,914 ------ 36 ----- 284 ------ 12 --- 2,246 -- 12.85%
Total -- 4,842 -- 10,251 --- 1,141 --- 1,203 ------ 48 -- 17,485 - 100.00%

I've checked my data and can't find an error in the month determination.

In your table, you have PD of Oct-Dec 2007 Certified in FY2007. That is not possible, because FY2007 finished on September 30, 2007. The earliest they can have been Certified is FY2008.

Spec,
To be honest i did not checked my monthly breakdowns after our previous discussion, but looks like we are close. Since lot of people are asking for FY2007 PWMB labor information i posted my table. Could you or Q post your table under FACTS AND DATA section.

[Spectator]

Based on Spec's numbers we are looking at about 5.6 k I&C PERM approvals until July 2007, also couple of hundreds from FY 2006. I would take 70:30 (or at least 65:35) for EB2:EB3 split, and 15-20% denial rate at i140. This will generate about 6k PWMB until July 2007.



Spec,
To be honest i did not checked my monthly breakdowns after our previous discussion, but looks like we are close. Since lot of people are asking for FY2007 PWMB labor information i posted my table. Could you or Q post your table under FACTS AND DATA section.
Sure. Consider it done.

[veni001]

Sure. Consider it done.

Spec,
As usual, good job.
Thank you

[nishant2200]

The wait begins once more. July 8th where art thou.

Living month to month. When can I say, "mein azad hoon"

Feel like short poem today

Mukti
----------

thak gaye hum, bhagte bhagte,
haar gaye hum, sochte sochte

lakshya kya hai, ummid kyon hai,
rasta pukarta hai, yeh pukar kyon hai

[veni001]

The wait begins once more. July 8th where art thou.

Living month to month. When can I say, "mein azad hoon"

Feel like short poem today

Mukti
----------

thak gaye hum, bhagte bhagte,
haar gaye hum, sochte sochte

lakshya kya hai, ummid kyon hai,
rasta pukarta hai, yeh pukar kyon hai

Not too far from now! :)

[neospeed]

https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplayInit.do

Updated on June 11, 11.

Dates as of April 30, 11.

I-485 - EB TSC OCT 31, 2010
I-485 - EB NSC DEC 2, 2010

This is surest sign that all immigration is policy driven. Laws be damned. I wouldn't be surprised if dates go past Aug 2007 next bulletin. USCIS seems to be deliberate in not processing new cases. Something is cooking.

Of Course, in the end it will all cancel out. Next year EB2 I&C will get proportionately less spillover. But hey, if we all get to file our I-485 then amen to that!

What does this mean CIS still processing first and second quater applications?. Does it mean they will be not able to process q3 and q4 applications on time, we will have more spillover?

[pch053]

If they are processing I485 cases that were filed late 2010, then it means that many of the pending I485 cases in EB2-ROW and EB1 category (almost 20K) as seen in the June I485 pending inventory might not be approved this year. Does this mean more EB2-I/C approvals this year? I think if there are 36K - 37K spillovers (this is probably the max expected number), it will clear the backlog up to July - Aug'07, though the more realistic estimate is that there will be sufficient spillovers to clear up to May'07, right?

[veni001]

If they are processing I485 cases that were filed late 2010, then it means that many of the pending I485 cases in EB2-ROW and EB1 category (almost 20K) as seen in the June I485 pending inventory might not be approved this year. Does this mean more EB2-I/C approvals this year? I think if there are 36K - 37K spillovers (this is probably the max expected number), it will clear the backlog up to July - Aug'07, though the more realistic estimate is that there will be sufficient spillovers to clear up to May'07, right?

pch053,
They may not or they may, assuming that the processing times improve in the next couple of months. But the key for SOFAD applied to EB2I&C in AUG/SEPT 2011 will be based on how many of the 20k (EB1+EB2ROWMP) are documentarily qualified to assign a VISA number by September 20011!

[TeddyKoochu]

May 2007 is sustainable as per our calculations. I could be wrong by +2 months. But I almost guarantee 100% that the dates will retrogress if they move anywhere around Q4 2007 and beyond. My guess would be that the dates will settle around a month where backlog as of Oct 2007 will be around 1000-1500.

Teddy may have slightly different view point. And that's fine because all of us are really guessing - only in a bit intelligent manner.

Let me list down the probability for all dates by Sep 2011. The gate opening or new intake is purely hypothetical this is just based on the numbers; there is a possibility of another 12K SOFAD at maximum, but most likely 8K to happen in the coming 2 bulletins. The 12K maximum can bring the preadjudicated numbers very close to exhaustion with PWMB cases providing the buffer. The chart below is purely out of my gut feeling as Q says there is more guesswork in this than logic. The agencies may push the dates to 15th Aug to get each and every preadjudicated case. Have your hopes high what has happened till now also was considered impossible as late as a few months back but has happened.

01-JUN-2007 - 100%
15-JUN-2007 - 90%
01-JUL-2007 - 80%
15-JUL-2007 - 65%
01-AUG-2007 - 50%
15-AUG-2007 - 35%
01-SEP-2007 - 20%

I believe that most of the movement will be seen in the Aug bulletin itself with the September bulletin being more of finishing touches it may just have the excess numbers which they had buffered for EB2 ROW / EB1 just in case so that any of the cases from these categories does not miss approval. My guess is that the date in the Aug bulletin will be between 15th May to 01-Jun 2007.

[veni001]

Let me list down the probability for all dates by Sep 2011. The gate opening or new intake is purely hypothetical this is just based on the numbers, there is a possibility of another 12K SOFAD at maximum, but most likely 8K to happen in the coming 2 bulletins and that will bring the preadjudicated numbers very close to exhaustion with PWMB cases providing the buffer. The chart below is purely out of my gut feeling as Q says there is more guesswork in this than logic. The agencies may push the dates to 15th Aug to get each and every preadjudicated case. Have your hopes high what has happened till now also was considered impossible as late as a few months back but has happened.

01-JUN-2007 - 100%
15-JUN-2007 - 90%
01-JUL-2007 - 80%
15-JUL-2007 - 65%
01-AUG-2007 - 50%
15-AUG-2007 - 35%
01-SEP-2007 - 20%

Teddy,
Similar to what i said before JULY 2011 bulliten, this is what i think could happen in the next couple of months.

1. USCIS may apply all SOFAD left for FY 2011 in August 2011 itself!
Here is my reason why: No one (EB1&EB2ROW-M-P&EB4-5) can expect GC in two months after filing, so thematically EB1&EB2ROW-M-P&EB4-5 demand left for FY2011 is how many of the ~20K are documentarily qualified by AUG 2011.

2. Also they can avoid any visa wastage by doing this in AUG VB itself.

3. This will give them option of opening gates(up to?) for new inventory in Sept 2011, if they choose to.

[leo07]

Teddy,

DOS must have ~4180 visas in pocket to move to June 1st and 5808 visas to move upto July 1st.( give or take 15%). You think there will not be another 6k numbers available come August bulletin?( with 0.1 probability that is )

I like your over-all probabilities btw

Best!


Let me list down the probability for all dates by Sep 2011. The gate opening or new intake is purely hypothetical this is just based on the numbers; there is a possibility of another 12K SOFAD at maximum, but most likely 8K to happen in the coming 2 bulletins. The 12K maximum can bring the preadjudicated numbers very close to exhaustion with PWMB cases providing the buffer. The chart below is purely out of my gut feeling as Q says there is more guesswork in this than logic. The agencies may push the dates to 15th Aug to get each and every preadjudicated case. Have your hopes high what has happened till now also was considered impossible as late as a few months back but has happened.

01-JUN-2007 - 100%
15-JUN-2007 - 90%
01-JUL-2007 - 80%
15-JUL-2007 - 65%
01-AUG-2007 - 50%
15-AUG-2007 - 35%
01-SEP-2007 - 20%

I believe that most of the movement will be seen in the Aug bulletin itself with the September bulletin being more of finishing touches it may just have the excess numbers which they had buffered for EB2 ROW / EB1 just in case so that any of the cases from these categories does not miss approval. My guess is that the date in the Aug bulletin will be between 15th May to 01-Jun 2007.

[qesehmk]

Header Updated.

The key messages are:

Based on USCIS processing times and Trackitt data it seems EB1 and EB2ROW both are very slow to process cases filed in 2011 FY. This will result in SOFAD large enough to clear all teh way through Aug 2007 for EB2I with a decent chance that there actually will be some SOFAD given to EB3 too.

As per EB2, DoS will probably move the dates into Aug 2007 in Aug 2011 bulletin itself. The reason being they might want to accomodate as much PWMB as possible. Then in Sep or OCt bulleting thtey will probably move dates 1 year ahead to take in large applciations and then retrogress dates in November.

Please check header for details.

[vishnu]

Q - I agree that SOFAD will be quite large but why would they provide SOFAD to EB3 rather than moving EB2 dates even further.

[chikitsak]

@ Vishnu, I agree with Q. Since the PWMB will not be able to get adjudicated in the next 3 months, rather than waste the Visa numbers , they may go to EB3.

[vishnu]

But they could also move the dates for EB2 to 2009 or 2010 and attach visa numbers to consular applications too?

[Spectator]

Header Updated.

The key messages are:

Based on USCIS processing times and Trackitt data it seems EB1 and EB2ROW both are very slow to process cases filed in 2011 FY. This will result in SOFAD large enough to clear all teh way through Aug 2007 for EB2I with a decent chance that there actually will be some SOFAD given to EB3 too.

As per EB2, DoS will probably move the dates into Aug 2007 in Aug 2011 bulletin itself. The reason being they might want to accomodate as much PWMB as possible. Then in Sep or OCt bulleting thtey will probably move dates 1 year ahead to take in large applciations and then retrogress dates in November.

Please check header for details.

I agree that there almost seems to be a conspiracy between DOS and USCIS to slow down processing of Categories that are Current to allow the current backlog in EB2-IC to be cleared and this is likely to happen.

In the header, whilst I agree the approval numbers for EB1 and EB2-MP look possible, the figure for EB2-ROW looks low. It shows approvals of 8,859 + 8,091 = 16,950. EB2-ROW appears to have already reached 16.4k and had reached 100% of the FY2010 level by the end of May. Whilst the approval rate for EB2-ROW may slow in the remaining months, it looks like it will reach at least 20k, if not higher.

I think it is increasingly likely that DOS will push EB2-IC in to Mid/Late 2008 in September, then retrogress it in October. This would allow further use of CP visas, as long as NVC set the interview dates quickly and request the visas from DOS before the FY ends.

I don't believe there will be many, if any spare visas beyond those needed for EB2 and that spillover to EB3 is unlikely, though not impossible.

Even if any spare visas fall to EB3, they will be consumed by EB3-ROW, not EB3-I. As EB3-I appears to have virtually used its allocation for FY2011, I don't expect it to move much from the date set in the July VB.

[grnwtg]

Header Updated.

The key messages are:

Based on USCIS processing times and Trackitt data it seems EB1 and EB2ROW both are very slow to process cases filed in 2011 FY. This will result in SOFAD large enough to clear all teh way through Aug 2007 for EB2I with a decent chance that there actually will be some SOFAD given to EB3 too.

As per EB2, DoS will probably move the dates into Aug 2007 in Aug 2011 bulletin itself. The reason being they might want to accomodate as much PWMB as possible. Then in Sep or OCt bulleting thtey will probably move dates 1 year ahead to take in large applciations and then retrogress dates in November.

Please check header for details.

That should be wonderful news Q for people who missed 2007 bonanza to get EAD. And thanks Veni and Spec for updated data and enlighting us on the pending numbers fy2007. It definetly make sense for DOS to move dates atleast till mid2008 or end 2008 to accomodate new applications and there by avoiding processing delays, getting estimation of the perms.
Looking at the processing time and uscis intention to clear max. eb2I/C, next year might not see more than 18k spill over(hope fully my words are wrong).

But i was wondering if any PWMB will get green cards, I would be glad if some them get their green cards and get out of our way :)

[qesehmk]

vishnu, CP backlog for EB2I is not high enough. On the other hand they can't move dates only for CP, so moving dates to 2009/2010 - while not impossible at all - will depend on how much their appetite is to build future pipeline. I am an advocate of repeating the 2007 July scenario i.e. make it "C" for a couple of months in Oct/Nov and then fall back.


But they could also move the dates for EB2 to 2009 or 2010 and attach visa numbers to consular applications too?

Spec, I agree that ROW may yield less. My 37% is a bit aggressive. If you look at trackitt ROW is running at less than 50% approval for applications filed in 2011. However, even if you assume 50% and calculate, it yields very solid 34K total sofad enough to clear all the way through since PWMBs will not hit demand this year and portings have stayed low. Its as if everything that can go right for EB2I is going right at this time!


I agree that there almost seems to be a conspiracy between DOS and USCIS to slow down processing of Categories that are Current to allow the current backlog in EB2-IC to be cleared and this is likely to happen.

In the header, whilst I agree the approval numbers for EB1 and EB2-MP look possible, the figure for EB2-ROW looks low. It shows approvals of 8,859 + 8,091 = 16,950. EB2-ROW appears to have already reached 16.4k and had reached 100% of the FY2010 level by the end of May. Whilst the approval rate for EB2-ROW may slow in the remaining months, it looks like it will reach at least 20k, if not higher.

As per FD to EB3, it will be given to the applications with oldest dates which is EB3I (or may be there are philipines CP cases that are old enough) but certainly not ROW EB3 485 cases. Wonder why you think it will go to EB3 ROW?

I think it is increasingly likely that DOS will push EB2-IC in to Mid/Late 2008 in September, then retrogress it in October. This would allow further use of CP visas, as long as NVC set the interview dates quickly and request the visas from DOS before the FY ends.

I don't believe there will be many, if any spare visas beyond those needed for EB2 and that spillover to EB3 is unlikely, though not impossible.

Even if any spare visas fall to EB3, they will be consumed by EB3-ROW, not EB3-I. As EB3-I appears to have virtually used its allocation for FY2011, I don't expect it to move much from the date set in the July VB.

[Spectator]

I think it is worth explaining why I believe that spare visa that fall to EB3 will go to EB3-ROW first. I know that some people do not share this view. It may be a subject that we agree to disagree on.

The law setting out the fact that a country may not exceed 7% is given under INA 202 (a)(2):


INA: ACT 202 - NUMERICAL LIMITATION TO ANY SINGLE FOREIGN STATE

(a) Per Country Level. -

(2) Per country levels for family-sponsored and employment-based immigrants. - Subject to paragraphs (3), (4), and (5) the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.

The law which appears to be used for spillover says the following:


(5) RULES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS-

(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.

There is an argument that INA 202 (A)(5) quoted above only deals with Fall Across.

In that case INA 202 (a)(3) contains the same language.


(3) Exception if additional visas available. - If because of the application of paragraph (2) with respect to one or more foreign states or dependent areas, the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who otherwise may be issued such a visa, paragraph (2) shall not apply to visas made available to such states or areas during the remainder of such calendar quarter.

Either way, the argument below is valid.

In EB2, since Mexico, Philippines and ROW are all Current and they have no further demand, the spare visas are allocated to EB2-IC, since there are no "qualified immigrants" who may otherwise be issued such visas.

For EB3, in contrast, Countries within EB3-ROW represent "qualified immigrants", since they have demand and they have not yet reached their own 7% limits.

Spare visas cannot be allocated to EB3-I (who have reached their 7% limit) until either there is no further demand from EB3-ROW or every Country within EB3-ROW has reached its own 7% limit.

As much as EB3-I is constrained by the 7% limit, EB3-ROW is constrained by the overall 28.6% limit of visas available to EB3.

To put this into context, in FY2010, EB3-I received 3,036 visas. Within EB3-ROW, excluding South Korea, only 5 Countries were able to receive even 1,000 visas.

Worse for EB3-I, no Countries in ROW use their full allocations in EB1/2 & EB4/5 and the 7% limit is calculated on the overall total.

For simplicity, taking 9,800 as the the 7% limit for EB, then Pakistan, who used the most EB3 visas at 1,571 only used 3,058 visas in EB overall. They could use an additional 6,742 spillover visas to reach 9,800.

Excluding South Korea, of ROW Countries, Canada used the most overall EB visas at 5,893, so even they would be able to use an additional 3,907 visas to reach the overall 7% limit.

Based on last year, even EB3-P would be able to consume more visas - they share the same Cut Off Date as ROW and are constrained by it from receiving more visas.

[vishnu]

Q - one more question on this issue. Lets assume they make it C and get in tons more 485s. But they still won't be able to utilize the visa numbers though. So is there any point? I get now why you think there is chance for spillover to EB3 - at least its pre-adjuticated and hence the visa #s can be attached to the 485s.

[mpurna77]

@ Vishnu, I agree with Q. Since the PWMB will not be able to get adjudicated in the next 3 months, rather than waste the Visa numbers , they may go to EB3.

With the current pace of I-485 processing they don't even looked upon.

So PWMB will not able to make it this FY.

[mpurna77]

Spec As usual nice explanation. Thank you.

I really want to read INA to get some knowledge - is there any website online to read that :-)

[qesehmk]

Spec yours is a great post. I see your point about 7% limit. I am not sure if it applies to FD though. So will have to chew on it for a while. But I would recommend this post should be put under FAQs or somewhere where people have easy access to it. Its very fine insight into visa allocation.


I think it is worth explaining why I believe that spare visa that fall to EB3 will go to EB3-ROW first. I know that some people do not share this view. It may be a subject that we agree to disagree on.

The law setting out the fact that a country may not exceed 7% is given under INA 202 (a)(2):



The law which appears to be used for spillover says the following:



There is an argument that INA 202 (A)(5) quoted above only deals with Fall Across.

In that case INA 202 (a)(3) contains the same language.



Either way, the argument below is valid.

In EB2, since Mexico, Philippines and ROW are all Current and they have no further demand, the spare visas are allocated to EB2-IC, since there are no "qualified immigrants" who may otherwise be issued such visas.

For EB3, in contrast, Countries within EB3-ROW represent "qualified immigrants", since they have demand and they have not yet reached their own 7% limits.

Spare visas cannot be allocated to EB3-I (who have reached their 7% limit) until either there is no further demand from EB3-ROW or every Country within EB3-ROW has reached its own 7% limit.

As much as EB3-I is constrained by the 7% limit, EB3-ROW is constrained by the overall 28.6% limit of visas available to EB3.

To put this into context, in FY2010, EB3-I received 3,036 visas. Within EB3-ROW, excluding South Korea, only 5 Countries were able to receive even 1,000 visas.

Worse for EB3-I, no Countries in ROW use their full allocations in EB1/2 & EB4/5 and the 7% limit is calculated on the overall total.

For simplicity, taking 9,800 as the the 7% limit for EB, then Pakistan, who used the most EB3 visas at 1,571 only used 3,058 visas in EB overall. They could use an additional 6,742 spillover visas to reach 9,800.

Excluding South Korea, of ROW Countries, Canada used the most overall EB visas at 5,893, so even they would be able to use an additional 3,907 visas to reach the overall 7% limit.

Based on last year, even EB3-P would be able to consume more visas - they share the same Cut Off Date as ROW and are constrained by it from receiving more visas.


Q - one more question on this issue. Lets assume they make it C and get in tons more 485s. But they still won't be able to utilize the visa numbers though. So is there any point? I get now why you think there is chance for spillover to EB3 - at least its pre-adjuticated and hence the visa #s can be attached to the 485s.

Vishnu, the point of massive date movement will be to take in massive # of applications in. Now they can't process most of those applications anyway. Whether USCIS wants to take in massive apps in ... we will see :)

[mpurna77]

Is people observed or not, all people who are current in July VB. if miss July 1 have to wait 3 more days coz of long weekend and
Hope IOs will come out of their holiday mood quick to work on our applications :-((

[Spectator]

I really want to read INA to get some knowledge - is there any website online to read that :-)

I usually go to this USCIS page, where you can go to both the INA and 8CFR http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=02729c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1RCR D&vgnextchannel=02729c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD

The INA is here http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.f6da51a2342135be7e9d7a10e0dc91a0/?vgnextoid=fa7e539dc4bed010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=fa7e539dc4bed010VgnVCM1000000ecd190a RCRD&CH=act

8CFR is here http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.f6da51a2342135be7e9d7a10e0dc91a0/?vgnextoid=fa7e539dc4bed010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=fa7e539dc4bed010VgnVCM1000000ecd190a RCRD&CH=8cfr

Don't you just love those user friendly urls!

[mpurna77]

I usually go to this USCIS page, where you can go to both the INA and 8CFR http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=02729c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1RCR D&vgnextchannel=02729c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD

The INA is here http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.f6da51a2342135be7e9d7a10e0dc91a0/?vgnextoid=fa7e539dc4bed010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=fa7e539dc4bed010VgnVCM1000000ecd190a RCRD&CH=act

8CFR is here http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.f6da51a2342135be7e9d7a10e0dc91a0/?vgnextoid=fa7e539dc4bed010VgnVCM1000000ecd190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=fa7e539dc4bed010VgnVCM1000000ecd190a RCRD&CH=8cfr

Don't you just love those user friendly urls!

Thank you very much for info.

[Spectator]

Spec yours is a great post. I see your point about 7% limit. I am not sure if it applies to FD though. So will have to chew on it for a while. But I would recommend this post should be put under FAQs or somewhere where people have easy access to it. Its very fine insight into visa allocation.

Q,

I'll do that if you wish.

Since it is a subject that people do disagree on (often passionately I've seen on other fora) I will reproduce it in FAQ to start with, including an appropriate disclaimer.

I have never found any law or regulation that says that it does not apply to FD and I do not see how it cannot, especially under (a)(3).

In fact, if I were EB3-ROW, I would be beyond angry if it did not operate as I have outlined, especially as they already lose so many visas in various ways.

At the moment, having studied the relevant sections of the INA, it is a view I hold with great conviction, but it can only be considered interpretation, since we have no real life application of the law to date.

If and When it is proved either way by DOS actions, It might become appropriate to move it to FACTS & DATA.

I hope you consider that an appropriate course of action.

[skpanda]

Friends... I do not want to digress from the purpose of this thread but bring to your attention to an initiative that may help EB2 folks. Please vote and let us know your thoughts.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?84-Efforts-to-persuade-DOS-to-make-EB2IC-current-Poll-amp-Action-Items

PS: I posted this link here since it appears that most people like me have bookmarked the EB2 Predictions thread.

[sidd21]

hang on tight...you will be in by Aug 2011

Thank you all for your replies..

Gosh.. just when i started to relax on the thought of me beingcurrent in AUG 2011... people have started talking about retrogression after september 2011...As always , this brings in a new doubts in my mind....

My PD is MARCH 9 2007, EB2_i, Let us say on AUG 1, when i become current, i send in all papers/applications(I-485,I-765,I-131)
.
How much time will it take to get a GC approximately..( FP ,Name check needs to be done)
What do you gurus expect the realistic date would be if it retrogress?
If the dates retrogress to say MARCH 1 2007, what will happen to my file? will i have to wait again till the date moves beyon MARCH 9 2007

All, Please bare with my questions, as it has been a frustarting four years of missing the boat in july 2007...

[TeluguBidda]

Thank you all for your replies..

Gosh.. just when i started to relax on the thought of me beingcurrent in AUG 2011... people have started talking about retrogression after september 2011...As always , this brings in a new doubts in my mind....

My PD is MARCH 9 2007, EB2_i, Let us say on AUG 1, when i become current, i send in all papers/applications(I-485,I-765,I-131)
.
How much time will it take to get a GC approximately..( FP ,Name check needs to be done)
What do you gurus expect the realistic date would be if it retrogress?
If the dates retrogress to say MARCH 1 2007, what will happen to my file? will i have to wait again till the date moves beyon MARCH 9 2007

All, Please bare with my questions, as it has been a frustarting four years of missing the boat in july 2007...

Knowing that CIS is still processing I-485s (employment-based) from 2010, it will take about an year to get to process your case.

[soggadu]

don't keep an iota of doubt in your mind ......... even if the dates retrogress they will be in later part of 2007.....you will get greened .

[grnwtg]

Thank you all for your replies..

Gosh.. just when i started to relax on the thought of me beingcurrent in AUG 2011... people have started talking about retrogression after september 2011...As always , this brings in a new doubts in my mind....

My PD is MARCH 9 2007, EB2_i, Let us say on AUG 1, when i become current, i send in all papers/applications(I-485,I-765,I-131)
.
How much time will it take to get a GC approximately..( FP ,Name check needs to be done)
What do you gurus expect the realistic date would be if it retrogress?
If the dates retrogress to say MARCH 1 2007, what will happen to my file? will i have to wait again till the date moves beyon MARCH 9 2007

All, Please bare with my questions, as it has been a frustarting four years of missing the boat in july 2007...

From what i have seen/heard from friends, it might take atleast 3 months ( best case scenario) for FP, FBI etc, but i personally do not think dates to retrogress beyond March 9 2007 as many people will get cleared and as our gurus provided data, pwmb numbesr is not enough for dates to retrogress beyond March.

[bieber]

sidd21

People are talking about retogression after considering a big move in next 2-4 months, I think Mar2007 is very safe and the dates won't go back there ever again. In other words, you don't have to worry about date movement

[shaumack]

The law which appears to be used for spillover says the following:

(5) RULES FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS-

(A) EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANTS NOT SUBJECT TO PER COUNTRY LIMITATION IF ADDITIONAL VISAS AVAILABLE- If the total number of visas available under paragraph (1), (2), (3), (4), or (5) of section 203(b) for a calendar quarter exceeds the number of qualified immigrants who may otherwise be issued such visas, the visas made available under that paragraph shall be issued without regard to the numerical limitation under paragraph (2) of this subsection during the remainder of the calendar quarter.



Great post Spec. But sometime I feel that law can be interpretated as DOS wants and as it will be lobbied. I can very well argue with respect to above statement that this rule could be interpretated same throughout across the board not only for Fall Across. As per definition of "qualified immigrants", Spillover should first go to EB2-ROW then EB3-ROW (as they still have not reached 7% limit) and then be allocated to oversubscribed countries again on basis of EB1-retrogressed to EB2-retrogressed to EB3-retrogressed.

[neospeed]

Header Updated.

The key messages are:

Based on USCIS processing times and Trackitt data it seems EB1 and EB2ROW both are very slow to process cases filed in 2011 FY. This will result in SOFAD large enough to clear all teh way through Aug 2007 for EB2I with a decent chance that there actually will be some SOFAD given to EB3 too.

As per EB2, DoS will probably move the dates into Aug 2007 in Aug 2011 bulletin itself. The reason being they might want to accomodate as much PWMB as possible. Then in Sep or OCt bulleting thtey will probably move dates 1 year ahead to take in large applciations and then retrogress dates in November.

Please check header for details.

Thanks Q for your analysis. So spillover left is around: 37636 - 24000 = 13636 ?. I think the remaining s 13k should be able to cover all the eb2 pre adjudicated cases (11k until august) from June inventory. The remaining 2k going to cover any porting cases. PWMB have very little time to get processed this year, so they will get rollover to next fiscal year.

[Spectator]

Great post Spec. But sometime I feel that law can be interpretated as DOS wants and as it will be lobbied. I can very well argue with respect to above statement that this rule could be interpretated same throughout across the board not only for Fall Across. As per definition of "qualified immigrants", Spillover should first go to EB2-ROW then EB3-ROW (as they still have not reached 7% limit) and then be allocated to oversubscribed countries again on basis of EB1-retrogressed to EB2-retrogressed to EB3-retrogressed.shaumack,

I agree with your general point.

I agree that there are different interpretations to these laws.

However, that is not how DOS currently interpret it. In the May VB notes, Charles Oppenheim stated that the FD from EB1 was being dealt with under INA 202 (a)(5)(A).

My description is about how it is currently operating.

[bhayzone]

I was just wondering, what is the cutoff date for an application to be considered PWMB. Is it July 1, 2007 or Aug 17, 2007 or some other date. Put another way, when USCIS opened the gates in 2007, what was the PD cutoff date they established?

[leo07]

They let the folks prior to PD:July 1st 2007 file for 485 until August 17th 2007.

[Spectator]

I was just wondering, what is the cutoff date for an application to be considered PWMB. Is it July 1, 2007 or Aug 17, 2007 or some other date. Put another way, when USCIS opened the gates in 2007, what was the PD cutoff date they established?My view.

The Cut Off Date in July 2007 was Current (apart from EB3-EW which was U), so anyone who was ready to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 package could apply.

The problem was that many people were still waiting for their PERM to be approved to be able to do this. Those who were unable to do so are the PWMB.

Since USCIS eventually accepted I-485 received up to 17 Aug 2007, then something overnighted on the 16th could have made it in time, if the I-140/I-485 package was pre-prepared. That means the latest PD would be 15 Aug 2007 and the PERM was approved in 1 day.

The USCIS figures show very few August PD applications, so I think people generally use a PD of the end of July as the date when most PERM realistically couldn't be approved and the I-140/I-485 sent in time.

Certainly, any dates beyond mid August the end of July are not PWMB, because they never had a chance to board the boat!

Similarly, dependents added the Primary's family after the dates retrogressed would not be considered PWMB for the same reason.

People with PD beyond mid Aug 2007 are just classified as starting the process after retrogression had started.

Edit :- Further discussion has established that only those who were Current in the original July 2007 VB were eligible to file up to August 17, 2007. Therefore, there should be no PWMB beyond July 31, 2007.

Please ignore comments in RED, although I have left them in to show the original post and the mistakes it contained.

[TeddyKoochu]

They let the folks prior to PD:July 1st 2007 file for 485 until August 17th 2007.


My view.

The Cut Off Date in July 2007 was Current (apart from EB3-EW which was U), so anyone who was ready to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 package could apply.

The problem was that many people were still waiting for their PERM to be approved to be able to do this. Those who were unable to do so are the PWMB.

Since USCIS eventually accepted I-485 received up to 17 Aug 2007, then something overnighted on the 16th could have made it in time, if the I-140/I-485 package was pre-prepared. That means the latest PD would be 15 Aug 2007 and the PERM was approved in 1 day.

The USCIS figures show very few August PD applications, so I think people generally use a PD of the end of July as the date when most PERM realistically couldn't be approved and the I-140/I-485 sent in time.

Certainly, any dates beyond mid August are not PWMB, because they never had a chance to board the boat!

Similarly, dependents added the Primary's family after the dates retrogressed would not be considered PWMB for the same reason.

People with PD beyond mid Aug 2007 are just classified as starting the process after retrogression had started.


I was just wondering, what is the cutoff date for an application to be considered PWMB. Is it July 1, 2007 or Aug 17, 2007 or some other date. Put another way, when USCIS opened the gates in 2007, what was the PD cutoff date they established?

Spec I completely agree with what you are saying, also I believe that the agencies may try to get every possible pre-adjudicated case and the dates would likely advance to 15th Aug 2007. Hopefully we should be able to get over this term PWMB for good after this season :). Worst case with my late Jul PD I will be one of the last PWMB torchbearers :)

[sidd21]

sidd21

People are talking about retogression after considering a big move in next 2-4 months, I think Mar2007 is very safe and the dates won't go back there ever again. In other words, you don't have to worry about date movement

Thank you all for the replies

[bieber]

Spec

Thanks for the detailed monthly perm breakdown list, I'm not sure if EB1C category need to apply for labor, if yes then what criteria you used to exclude them in the numbers?

[Spectator]

Spec

Thanks for the detailed monthly perm breakdown list, I'm not sure if EB1C category need to apply for labor, if yes then what criteria you used to exclude them in the numbers?
EB1 and EB2-NIW have no need of LC, so the PERM data only includes EB2 and EB3 cases.

[leo07]

I was incorrect that it was not July 1st. I think it's 31st July, the "current" status was valid only for applications that fit July 2007 VB. They reverted the VB sooner in July and some people could not file. So, with all the pressure that's put on by various parties, they held the VB valid.

So, the applications that had a July PD, but approved before August 17th were eligible. I do not think the "Current" status was applicable to PD's after July 31st 2007.( about 98% sure)


My view.

The Cut Off Date in July 2007 was Current (apart from EB3-EW which was U), so anyone who was ready to file a concurrent I-140/I-485 package could apply.

The problem was that many people were still waiting for their PERM to be approved to be able to do this. Those who were unable to do so are the PWMB.

Since USCIS eventually accepted I-485 received up to 17 Aug 2007, then something overnighted on the 16th could have made it in time, if the I-140/I-485 package was pre-prepared. That means the latest PD would be 15 Aug 2007 and the PERM was approved in 1 day.

The USCIS figures show very few August PD applications, so I think people generally use a PD of the end of July as the date when most PERM realistically couldn't be approved and the I-140/I-485 sent in time.

Certainly, any dates beyond mid August are not PWMB, because they never had a chance to board the boat!

Similarly, dependents added the Primary's family after the dates retrogressed would not be considered PWMB for the same reason.

People with PD beyond mid Aug 2007 are just classified as starting the process after retrogression had started.

[ifaith]

Teddy since you are also PWMB and everyone agrees that PMWB's will not be able to get the visa numbers this year as it takes atleast 3 months for processing and all.
What about EAD, how much time would that take to come?



Spec I completely agree with what you are saying, also I believe that the agencies may try to get every possible pre-adjudicated case and the dates would likely advance to 15th Aug 2007. Hopefully we should be able to get over this term PWMB for good after this season :). Worst case with my late Jul PD I will be one of the last PWMB torchbearers :)

[bhayzone]

I was incorrect that it was not July 1st. I think it's 31st July, the "current" status was valid only for applications that fit July 2007 VB. They reverted the VB sooner in July and some people could not file. So, with all the pressure that's put on by various parties, they held the VB valid.

So, the applications that had a July PD, but approved before August 17th were eligible. I do not think the "Current" status was applicable to PD's after July 31st 2007.( about 98% sure)


USCIS memo on this states that "it will accept employment-based applications to adjust status (Form I-
485) filed by aliens whose priority dates are current under the July Visa Bulletin, No. 107."

And I don't understand if it means everyone with a July PD, or everyone with a PD when the July bulletin was released (that would include only PDs till June 2007)


http://www.murthy.com/uscis_update.pdf

"U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) announced that,
beginning immediately, it will accept employment-based applications to adjust status (Form I-
485) filed by aliens whose priority dates are current under the July Visa Bulletin, No. 107.
USCIS will accept applications filed not later than August 17, 2007."

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy since you are also PWMB and everyone agrees that PMWB's will not be able to get the visa numbers this year as it takes atleast 3 months for processing and all.
What about EAD, how much time would that take to come?

EAD / AP applications have a SLA of 90 days so you can rest assured that will come by. But for all PWMB's being able to file for 485 will itself be a great achievement by Sep 2011.Filing for AOS would keep us in status for 6 months automatically by section 245K so we can be out of the H1b extension loop if need be. I believe if that happens GC may also come by in 4-6 months whenever they can allocate sufficient numbers for these cases. This year one thing is clear that whenever they were able to assess that EB1 / EB2 ROW / EB5 demand is less spillover was applied so we can hope for GC sooner as well.

[Spectator]

I was incorrect that it was not July 1st. I think it's 31st July, the "current" status was valid only for applications that fit July 2007 VB. They reverted the VB sooner in July and some people could not file. So, with all the pressure that's put on by various parties, they held the VB valid.

So, the applications that had a July PD, but approved before August 17th were eligible. I do not think the "Current" status was applicable to PD's after July 31st 2007.( about 98% sure)
Leo,

I agree that sounds sensible and I would have done that, but how do you account for the entries in the USCIS Inventory for EB2-IC and all Countries in EB3 with PDs in August 2007 ?

Edit:- I see the memo makes it pretty clear that only people who were Current under the original July VB were allowed to file.

Maybe, since it was Current, rather than specific Cut Off Date, they allowed PDs beyond July 31st. Even I don't think that sounds a great explanation, but it is the only one I can think of. It could be the USCIS Inventory still has errors, but they should have been eliminated by now (well at least obvious ones like that).

[chikitsak]

Right. and @ Vishnu: "Technically", they would (should) have to make EB2I/C current prior to moving SOFAD to EB3. PWMB are likely looking at May- July 2012 before they can get approved. That is still better than it was looking 3 months ago. We have to remember that all this backlog that is causing the extra SOFAD (EB2 ROW) this year is going to catch up with us next year.

[leo07]

Some people(lawyers) filed for 485 anyways during those days, just because they had nothing to lose. Bigger employers/attorneys where obviously against that.

I think some ( tiny number of those ) got lucky and some could be upgrades. Other than that I can't think any other reasons:)

[Spectator]

Thanks Leo.

Trackitt doesn't show any very reliable August 2007 PD cases.

I appreciate you bringing your knowledge to the discussion and to bhayzone for digging up the memo. I'm leaning towards the USCIS Inventory being in error.

I learn something new every day. :)

[bhayzone]

For EB2-I, I am trying to come up with a rough approximate count of visa numbers that it would require to clear the current inventory and PWMB (and dependents). Do the calculations below make sense? I believe you guys must have already crunched the numbers and discussed it before and I apologize if I am asking you to work all this again, but I just wanted to validate if my numbers are sensible or way out of the generally accepted numbers here.

For EB2-I
7k - current inventory
8k * 2.5 = 20k - PWMB+dependents
Total: 27k (visa numbers required to clear inventory + PWMB and dependents).

[qesehmk]

bhayzone, you should also include china in it since IC move together. Secondly need to add portings.

PWMBs won't matter this year given there is much less time available to adjudicate those. And dependents are covered in inventory.

That way the total number to cover the inventory is 35.6K + portings + CP =42K max.


Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Grand Total
January 3 6 27 26 18 125 2,171 2,376
February - 4 4 7 71 109 2,025 2,220
March 1 4 8 33 217 171 2,037 2,471
April 3 5 22 17 7 116 1,994 2,164
May 1 2 10 24 10 1,503 1,647 3,197
June 3 2 13 20 24 2,362 1,881 4,305
July 5 4 7 30 46 2,114 3,272 5,478
August - 2 11 24 52 2,338 496 2,923
September - 35 9 34 117 2,447 - 2,642
October 1 17 15 15 77 2,448 - 2,573
November 3 1 5 25 97 2,364 - 2,495
December - 4 16 37 120 2,633 - 2,810
Grand Total 20 86 147 292 856 18,730 15,523 35,654



For EB2-I, I am trying to come up with a rough approximate count of visa numbers that it would require to clear the current inventory and PWMB (and dependents). Do the calculations below make sense? I believe you guys must have already crunched the numbers and discussed it before and I apologize if I am asking you to work all this again, but I just wanted to validate if my numbers are sensible or way out of the generally accepted numbers here.

For EB2-I
7k - current inventory
8k * 2.5 = 20k - PWMB+dependents
Total: 27k (visa numbers required to clear inventory + PWMB and dependents).

[Spectator]

bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB5 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.

[soggadu]

bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB4 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.


So does this mean we have enough numbers to clear cases till aug 01 07?? If yes can we hope the numbers to move forward??

[pch053]

I think among the above spillover numbers, the biggest uncertainty is EB1 spillovers, right? For EB2, the spillover numbers estimated are of similar order (slightly higher) as last year and EB5 is roughly assumed to be same as 2010. So, I think the way it stands is if there are 37K spillovers, then almost all EB2-I/C pending cases up to mid Aug'07 will be approved. If the spillover numbers fall short, then EB2-I/C approval dates will be anywhere between May'07 - Aug'07, depending on the # of spillovers. Is this a reasonable estimate at this point of time?

[vishnu]

Gurus - can you please help me understand something. The spillover from Eb1 (18k) + eb2 row (8k) + eb5 (8k) + eb2 ic (6k) = 40k will cover the backlog till July 2007 + porting + maybe some pwmb. Perhaps the numbers are off by a couple of thousand, in which case it covers the backlog till June 2007 etc. Now, gurus have pointed out that processing times are quite long, so even some Eb1 visas that would be attached to FY 2011 applications may not be done. So are those numbers that may spill over IN ADDITION to the numbers I mentioned above??

[qesehmk]

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.

What we see today is a perfect combinations that are suitable for clearing the backlog through Aug 07. It consists of following conditions.
1. Portings low
2. PWMB impact none.
3. 485 processing dates around 31 Oct 2010 (Texas), 02 Dec 2010 (Nebrasca). And 485 split between the two centers is 70-30.
#3 is especially important since it means very less from 2011 will be processed. This chokes up the EB1 and EB2 ROW 485s.

The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.


bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB4 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.

[suninphx]

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.

What we see today is a perfect combinations that are suitable for clearing the backlog through Aug 07. It consists of following conditions.
1. Portings low
2. PWMB impact none.
3. 485 processing dates around 31 Oct 2010 (Texas), 02 Dec 2010 (Nebrasca). And 485 split between the two centers is 70-30.
#3 is especially important since it means very less from 2011 will be processed. This chokes up the EB1 and EB2 ROW 485s.

The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.

While all this looks good for this year - its going to be not so good year for SOFAD next year. But on lighter note people one needs to remember that people with Jan - Jul 07 PD are lot of luckiest people. :) . So no wonder everything going right with those PDs. Good luck guys.

[mvinayam]

Hi All,

Need some suggestion.

We have a pending I-485 (EB3 03/2006) filied July 2007 as myself as primary & my husband as dependent. My husband also has his own approved I-140 (EB2 06/20/2007) . Based on the current Visa Movements I guess we have some chances of being current by end of this fiscal year.

The question I have is if my husbands date become current is there any possibility for us to interfile the I-140 between spouse??? (Is it a good option)

The lawyers are not ready to file secondary I-485 due to which we missed the concurrent filing during July 2007 :( . If interfiling is not an option then should we withdraw the existing I-485 & file a new one. If we do so how long it will take for us to get the GC. I am just concerned that if it retrogress then once again the waiting time will a long one.

Please advice.

Thanks,
mvinayam

[qesehmk]

I do not know about interfiling. However, I am certain that even if the dates retrogress they won't go prior to May 2007 for EB2I. You will certainly get your GC in 2012 cycle if your husband can file a 485.


Hi All,

Need some suggestion.

We have a pending I-485 (EB3 03/2006) filied July 2007 as myself as primary & my husband as dependent. My husband also has his own approved I-140 (EB2 06/20/2007) . Based on the current Visa Movements I guess we have some chances of being current by end of this fiscal year.

The question I have is if my husbands date become current is there any possibility for us to interfile the I-140 between spouse??? (Is it a good option)

The lawyers are not ready to file secondary I-485 due to which we missed the concurrent filing during July 2007 :( . If interfiling is not an option then should we withdraw the existing I-485 & file a new one. If we do so how long it will take for us to get the GC. I am just concerned that if it retrogress then once again the waiting time will a long one.

Please advice.

Thanks,
mvinayam

[cotes_ashish]

Hi Guys,
Any chance that 17May 07 will be reached by the end of this quarter. :confused:

[skpanda]

This may sound stupid question... but i will ask anyway...

Is it possible that out of 42K applications, Few thousand of them are not yet pre-adjudicated (RFE etc). Reason why this occured to me is, we see about 9K numbers in EB2-ROW (4K are in 2010). Even though they appear in inventory report, they will not be approved/greened in FY 2011. Same is true for EB1.

Is that possible for EB2? If yes, then we will have surplus spillover and that may be passed on to EB3


bhayzone,

I agree absolutely with Q.

42k is probably the magic number.

Most dependents that have never had a chance to file I-485, like PWMB, won't have time to be approved this FY.

So, with IC starting with 5.6k allocation, spillover of 37.4k is needed to clear the current backlog.

That is a tall order and needs everything to come in at the top end of expectations - something like:

EB4 -- 8.0
EB1 - 20.0
EB2 -- 9.4
Tot - 37.4

and some of those are looking quite tight.

[bieber]

Q, Spec

howmuch additional spillover you are estimating due to delay in processing times? just trying to understand it's impact on next year sofad

[Spectator]

This may sound stupid question... but i will ask anyway...

Is it possible that out of 42K applications, Few thousand of them are not yet pre-adjudicated (RFE etc). Reason why this occured to me is, we see about 9K numbers in EB2-ROW (4K are in 2010). Even though they appear in inventory report, they will not be approved/greened in FY 2011. Same is true for EB1.

Is that possible for EB2? If yes, then we will have surplus spillover and that may be passed on to EB3
skpanda,

No question is stupid. It's actually a very good question.

It is possible, but I think it less likely for EB2-IC cases.

There are about 1.5k EB2-IC cases on the USCIS Inventory up to the end of 2005 that do not appear in the Demand data. Possibly, they won't get approved, since they appear to be "difficult" cases. On the other hand, there are about 1k more EB2-I cases for 2006 on the USCIS inventory than in the Demand data. They may be new applications from dependents (or PWMB) and stand a better chance of being approved.

The Demand Data for 2007 cases is 15,325 versus the USCIS Inventory number of 15,468. That tends to suggest that DOS are aware of all the cases, which wouldn't be the case if they hadn't already been pre-adjudicated.

It might end up that the factors just cancel each other out. I don't know the answer.

[mvinayam]

Thanks for the update. Hoping to see some good results.

Thanks,
mvinayam

[qesehmk]

agree w spec. there are alwasy nuances like those 1.5K cases. So its always a good thing to stay at macro factors and then try to predict.

Another thing is that we are considering that there won't be any denials which is a bit conservative. In reality there will be some denials (may be 2%) but we haven't factored that in.


Thirdly there are always multiple way to predict. What specifically I am doing is .. following two separate ways to predict.
1. Fundamental model depicted at the head of this thread.
2. Trackitt based model in "FACTS and DATA" section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?53-TRACKITT-BASED-PROJECTIONS

Bieber, I generally try to predict full year. As it is there are so many unknowns in full year prediction. When one tries to figure how much SOFAD is already realized vs what's to come, it increases the probability of error. Sorry I can't answer your question. But Teddy usually does split data this way. Teddy can u pls help Bieber?


skpanda,

No question is stupid. It's actually a very good question.

It is possible, but I think it less likely for EB2-IC cases.

There are about 1.5k EB2-IC cases on the USCIS Inventory up to the end of 2005 that do not appear in the Demand data. Possibly, they won't get approved, since they appear to be "difficult" cases. On the other hand, there are about 1k more EB2-I cases for 2006 on the USCIS inventory than in the Demand data. They may be new applications from dependents (or PWMB) and stand a better chance of being approved.

The Demand Data for 2007 cases is 15,325 versus the USCIS Inventory number of 15,468. That tends to suggest that DOS are aware of all the cases, which wouldn't be the case if they hadn't already been pre-adjudicated.

It might end up that the factors just cancel each other out. I don't know the answer.

[kd2008]

I was thinking about what may happen next year. Going forward, there will be newly filed I-485 cases for EB2 I&C in a sizable volume compared to previous year. This is going to slow down processing time of EB2ROW cases even though they are current. As such our prediction models need to change. Because USCIS processes applications in the order they were received, EB2ROWs that file after the EB2 I&C intake will see markedly longer processing times. Our models will need to account for this. May be this means good news for EB2I&C. It would be illustrative to check what the Eb2ROW processing times were after the July 2007 fiasco.

[coolguy]

Hello Gurus, My PD is Aug-08. Can someone tell me when can I expect to be greened ?

[bieber]

Bieber, I generally try to predict full year. As it is there are so many unknowns in full year prediction. When one tries to figure how much SOFAD is already realized vs what's to come, it increases the probability of error. Sorry I can't answer your question. But Teddy usually does split data this way. Teddy can u pls help Bieber?

Q, thanks, that's ok. Just wondered if fy2011 using 'supposedly' fy2012 spill over.
Do you agree, as long as we don't see huge surge in EB1 demand next year should be atleast better than fy2010

[leo07]

Folks,

Let us say DOS moves the dates to August 1 2007 and brings the EB2 inventory to 35K and there are 35K visas available.
Obviously, CIS cannot go through all these 35k in 2 months.

In this scenario:
a. Would CIS be able to allot a visa to each of these applications first and then process the applications at their own speed? ( since denial rate is 2%, max wastage would be 2% in this case.)
b. Would CIS allot visas at random among all documentarily qualified folks across the EB board.?
c. What would happen to the 35K EB2 inventory built in the case of (b)--they would sit and wait for Visa number for another year?

I know more or less the answer is (b) & (c), but want all your opinions and thoughts :)

[Spectator]

I was thinking about what may happen next year. Going forward, there will be newly filed I-485 cases for EB2 I&C in a sizable volume compared to previous year. This is going to slow down processing time of EB2ROW cases even though they are current. As such our prediction models need to change. Because USCIS processes applications in the order they were received, EB2ROWs that file after the EB2 I&C intake will see markedly longer processing times. Our models will need to account for this. May be this means good news for EB2I&C. It would be illustrative to check what the Eb2ROW processing times were after the July 2007 fiasco.
Or USCIS can decide to priorize their resources on applications that are Current or just about to become Current. Any excess capacity can be used to pre-adjudicate the retrogressed cases. That's what appeared to happen post 2007.

Retrogression will mean that most of the EB2-IC cases won't be Current. That gives USCIS a possible 9 months to work through them before the window opens again in July 2012, if the Cut Off Dates are moved forward in September 2011.

Who knows?

I agree, even pushing forward enough to collect the next year's applications is going to cause logistical problems for USCIS. Currently, their Production rate is not high enough to cope with the influx.

[th5000th]

Q, Can you ask your source to check with VO on the cutoff dates for August and September? Thanks a lot.


Header Updated.

The key messages are:

Based on USCIS processing times and Trackitt data it seems EB1 and EB2ROW both are very slow to process cases filed in 2011 FY. This will result in SOFAD large enough to clear all teh way through Aug 2007 for EB2I with a decent chance that there actually will be some SOFAD given to EB3 too.

As per EB2, DoS will probably move the dates into Aug 2007 in Aug 2011 bulletin itself. The reason being they might want to accomodate as much PWMB as possible. Then in Sep or OCt bulleting thtey will probably move dates 1 year ahead to take in large applciations and then retrogress dates in November.

Please check header for details.

[imechanix]

Spec,

Estimation of PWMB EB2IC per month from Mar07-July07:

I used your approved PERM-IC data & EB2IC-I485 Inventory to get an estimation of PWMB per month from March 2007 - July2007. The formula I used is PWMB = PERM,IC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)-EB2IC,485.
I calculated EB2:EB3 Ratio for every month (but average was around 0.66) and dependent factor used was 2.25. The total PWMB from March'07-July'07 I got was 7,201 with individual months distribution given in the table. Does this makes sense?



---------------EB2 I-485 Applied----------------PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)---------------------PWMB EB2 Prim & Dep
----------------India+China--------------------------------------India+China-------------------------------------India+China
Mar 07-------------2047----------------------------------------------3052-------------------------------------1005
Apr 07-------------2022-----------------------------------------------3632-------------------------------------1610
May 07------------1588----------------------------------------------3182-------------------------------------1594
Jun 07-------------1819----------------------------------------------4010--------------------------------------2191
Jul 07--------------3319---------------------------------------------4119---------------------------------------800
Total---------------10795--------------------------------------------17996------------------------------------7201

Thanks for your your help.

[veni001]

Spec,

Estimation of PWMB EB2IC per month from Mar07-July07:

I used your approved PERM-IC data & EB2IC-I485 Inventory to get an estimation of PWMB per month from March 2007 - July2007. The formula I used is PWMB = PERM,IC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)-EB2IC,485.
I calculated EB2:EB3 Ratio for every month (but average was around 0.66) and dependent factor used was 2.25. The total PWMB from March'07-July'07 I got was 7,201 with individual months distribution given in the table. Does this makes sense?



---------------EB2 I-485 Applied----------------PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor)---------------------PWMB EB2 Prim & Dep
----------------India+China--------------------------------------India+China-------------------------------------India+China
Mar 07-------------2047----------------------------------------------3052-------------------------------------1005
Apr 07-------------2022-----------------------------------------------3632-------------------------------------1610
May 07------------1588----------------------------------------------3182-------------------------------------1594
Jun 07-------------1819----------------------------------------------4010--------------------------------------2191
Jul 07--------------3319---------------------------------------------4119---------------------------------------800
Total---------------10795--------------------------------------------17996------------------------------------7201

Thanks for your your help.

imechanix,
You can use 2007 PWMB PERM Table for I+C (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29) to calculate 485 demand until July 2007.

[veni001]

This may sound stupid question... but i will ask anyway...

Is it possible that out of 42K applications, Few thousand of them are not yet pre-adjudicated (RFE etc). Reason why this occured to me is, we see about 9K numbers in EB2-ROW (4K are in 2010). Even though they appear in inventory report, they will not be approved/greened in FY 2011. Same is true for EB1.

Is that possible for EB2? If yes, then we will have surplus spillover and that may be passed on to EB3

skpanda,
It could be, Just looking at demand data published (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates) since October 2010, show max demand of 23k only for EB2I even though 24.2k is known from OCT2010 inventory update. Similarly 11.3k for EB2C or EB2IC max as 34.2k out of 36.7k known demand!

[pch053]

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.


The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.

Q,
This might be a very basic question. If the EB2ROW approvals are on the higher side (~50%) then EB2-I/C approvals will be in and around June'07 and USCIS already has pending applications to approve for that. On the other hand, if the EB2-ROW approval is on the lower side (~37%), then EB2I/C approvals will go past Aug'07. Now, if it goes beyond Aug'07, then the new applications (along with the PWMB cases from Jan - July'07) are unlikely to be approved this year. So, I assume in that case there might be remaining visas with not enough EB2 I/C applications to approve and the spillovers will go to EB3-ROW category. I guess this situation can happen in future years too if USCIS doesn't have enough I485 applications in pipeline, which might me one reason for advancing and then retrogressing the PDs. Also, for this year, is there a possibility that PWMB cases that are filed during early July'11 might get approved as there will be ~3 months time for approval prior to Sep 30.

Thanks!

[vishnu]

It's because they won't have enough pre-adj applications in the pipleline - they may want to push dates forward to build at least a year's inventory and retrogress - just my humble opinion of course :)

[veni001]

Spec I am sure you meant EB5 below. And I would agree. But may be I would reduce that to 6K.

What we see today is a perfect combinations that are suitable for clearing the backlog through Aug 07. It consists of following conditions.
1. Portings low
2. PWMB impact none.
3. 485 processing dates around 31 Oct 2010 (Texas), 02 Dec 2010 (Nebrasca). And 485 split between the two centers is 70-30.
#3 is especially important since it means very less from 2011 will be processed. This chokes up the EB1 and EB2 ROW 485s.

The calculated number tells us that 37% of 2011 485s will be processed. Trackitt confirms for EB1. For EB2 trackitt shows that it will be 50%.

So varying the number betwee 37% and 50% .... at higher end it will blow past Aug 2007. At lower end it will be Jun 2007 or something.
Q,
Just looking at I-526 approvals from Oct 2010 - Mar2011 (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=18&office=71&charttype=1) (about 700 approvals) and EB5-485 ratio (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-%28From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics%29), i agree that EB2I&C may not be able to get 8K from EB5 this year.

Also i agree with #1 &#2 but for #3, even though USCIS website showing 485 processing 2010 cases, we see 2011(receipt) approvals (EB1&EB2ROW) on Trackitt!

[qesehmk]

Veni, we probably would. But consider this fact.

Per trackitt data, 576 cases were filed in EB1 and EB2ROW in this FY. Of which 322 are still pending.

That is 56% pending.

Of the ones approved 254, 126 i.e. 50% are post Dec 2010. So yes there are cases frm 2011 FY that are approved and there will be such cases. But the overwhelming statistics is that 56% of 2011 demand in EB1 and EB2 ROW will not be processed this year (assuming that trend holds.) We will see!



Also i agree with #1 &#2 but for #3, even though USCIS website showing 485 processing 2010 cases, we see 2011(receipt) approvals (EB1&EB2ROW) on Trackitt!

[victorian]

have forwarded AC21 docs to USCIS and have also received a confirmation saying that the AC21 docs have been appended to my I 485 application, etc.

Hi pch -
I recently filed an AC-21 notice as well and was under the impresssion that USCIS does not provide any indication that this has been accepted. Would you mind elaborating on the form of confirmation that you received?
Apologies if this is thread hijacking.

[pch053]

Hi pch -
I recently filed an AC-21 notice as well and was under the impresssion that USCIS does not provide any indication that this has been accepted. Would you mind elaborating on the form of confirmation that you received?
Apologies if this is thread hijacking.

I think there is no guarantee that USCIS will send an acknowledgment after receiving AC21 docs. In fact, there are many instances where the AC21 docs don't even reach one's I485 file. Its somewhat random on whether one will received an acknowledgment from USCIS after submitting the AC21 docs and this shouldn't have any effect on the pending I485 application. If Q and others suggest, I can open another thread and type the contents of the letter (or just type the contents of the letter in this thread itself); its a simple letter saying they received the AC21 related docs and appended it to my pending I485 application.

[qesehmk]

we have an AC21 thread at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?63-All-about-AC21 we can use that.



I think there is no guarantee that USCIS will send an acknowledgment after receiving AC21 docs. In fact, there are many instances where the AC21 docs don't even reach one's I485 file. Its somewhat random on whether one will received an acknowledgment from USCIS after submitting the AC21 docs and this shouldn't have any effect on the pending I485 application. If Q and others suggest, I can open another thread and type the contents of the letter (or just type the contents of the letter in this thread itself); its a simple letter saying they received the AC21 related docs and appended it to my pending I485 application.

[imechanix]

imechanix,
You can use 2007 PWMB PERM Table for I+C (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-%28including-Monthly-Breakdown%29) to calculate 485 demand until July 2007.

Thanks Veni. I did not pay attention to that information.

[nishant2200]

Maybe I am incorrect, but I think EB1, EB2 ROW since are current, can file 140 and 485 concurrently. So in that case, the 485 cannot be approved until the 140 is approved, so in fact, the time taken for 140 approval maybe the reason, why we think it's taking long for 485 to get approved.

[Spectator]

Maybe I am incorrect, but I think EB1, EB2 ROW since are current, can file 140 and 485 concurrently. So in that case, the 485 cannot be approved until the 140 is approved, so in fact, the time taken for 140 approval maybe the reason, why we think it's taking long for 485 to get approved.nishant,

I am sure that must be true to a certain extent (maybe it the main reason), but it can't be the sole reason.

According to this document http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Ombudsman%20Liaison/Responses%20to%20Annual%20Reports/cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf (page 8 of the pdf) it says about the USCIS Inventory :


B. I-485 Inventory Report

.........

In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory. This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times. However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report.

That means that all cases in the USCIS Inventory already have an approved I-140 and many of them have been pending for some time. They would be in addition to those still within the cycle time for the I-140.

I have to ask - if USCIS can't deal with normal volumes, how are they going to cope with all the extra EB2-IC that will be coming their way shortly? The two Service Centers already had a backlog of 80k I-485 in March 2011.

[nishant2200]

Amazing. Thanks for the helpful response.

Have to say, there is more sense of peace and calm and knowledge gathering and sharing in this forum.


nishant,

I am sure that must be true to a certain extent (maybe it the main reason), but it can't be the sole reason.

According to this document http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Resources/Ombudsman%20Liaison/Responses%20to%20Annual%20Reports/cisomb-2010-annual-report-response.pdf (page 8 of the pdf) it says about the USCIS Inventory :



That means that all cases in the USCIS Inventory already have an approved I-140 and many of them have been pending for some time. They would be in addition to those still within the cycle time for the I-140.

I have to ask - if USCIS can't deal with normal volumes, how are they going to cope with all the extra EB2-IC that will be coming their way shortly? The two Service Centers already had a backlog of 80k I-485 in March 2011.

[cbpds1]

Amazing. Thanks for the helpful response.

Have to say, there is more sense of peace and calm and knowledge gathering and sharing in this forum.

u mean to say after the "quarter" fiasco :)

[nishant2200]

u mean to say after the "quarter" fiasco :)

you got it man ;)

[veni001]

Veni, we probably would. But consider this fact.

Per trackitt data, 576 cases were filed in EB1 and EB2ROW in this FY. Of which 322 are still pending.

That is 56% pending.

Of the ones approved 254, 126 i.e. 50% are post Dec 2010. So yes there are cases frm 2011 FY that are approved and there will be such cases. But the overwhelming statistics is that 56% of 2011 demand in EB1 and EB2 ROW will not be processed this year (assuming that trend holds.) We will see!

Q,
Let's hope for the best for FY 2011, but processing delay(EB1&EB2ROW-M-P) is going to hurt EB2I&C movement in the long run.

Not sure what's cooking behind the doors with DOS/USCIS, no demand data for July 2011, no FY 2011 prediction in July VB and also no update on dashboard for April 2011 processing volumes & trends yet!

[pch053]

As of now, for EB2-I I see the following approvals in trackitt:
May 2011: 138 (only 28 of these approvals are after 15th May)
June 2011: 129 (as of now)
In the month of May, most of the approvals were in the first half of the month and there were only 28 approvals after 15th May. If this trend follows in June too, then we won't have that many more approvals (maybe another 40 - 50 or so in trackitt) for the rest of the month. So, one thing that is surprising to me is that even though the movement in PDs was quite different for the months of May and June (7 weeks vs. 19 weeks), the # of trackitt approvals during these two months is not significantly different. Also, is there a thumb rule on what fraction of overall EB2I is represented inside trackitt (I have seen estimates ranging from 5 - 7%)? If so, it might give us an idea on the # of applicants in the overall EB2I pool that are getting their I485 approvals.

[qesehmk]

bieber I didn't understand what you are asking. In terms of how next FY (i..e 2012) will look like - the favorability in EB1 EB2ROW this year is because of delay in processing. Not the reduction in demand itself. There is 20% reduction in EB2ROW demand yes. So, next year all that unprocessed 2011 demand is going to hit the pipeline and 2012 will be bad for EB2IC. How bad? We will know after Oct 2011 inventory is published. But get this ... at that point most of the backlog will be cleared and hopefully USCIS will have taken in new apps. These people will at least be happy that they have an EAD to work with. While not ideal ... that is better than waiting to file 485.



Q, thanks, that's ok. Just wondered if fy2011 using 'supposedly' fy2012 spill over.
Do you agree, as long as we don't see huge surge in EB1 demand next year should be atleast better than fy2010


Leo, a lot of those 35K are already processed. Secondly I wouldn't doubt USCIS's ability to process 35K in two months when almost all of them are preadjudicated. The visa allocation will proceed mostly by PD. That's what the law says.

Bottomline I do not believe for a second that any visa will be wasted.


Folks,
Let us say DOS moves the dates to August 1 2007 and brings the EB2 inventory to 35K and there are 35K visas available.
Obviously, CIS cannot go through all these 35k in 2 months.

In this scenario:
a. Would CIS be able to allot a visa to each of these applications first and then process the applications at their own speed? ( since denial rate is 2%, max wastage would be 2% in this case.)
b. Would CIS allot visas at random among all documentarily qualified folks across the EB board.?
c. What would happen to the 35K EB2 inventory built in the case of (b)--they would sit and wait for Visa number for another year?

I know more or less the answer is (b) & (c), but want all your opinions and thoughts :)


This aint going to happen before second week of July. There is nothing meaningful he is going to give to us.

Q, Can you ask your source to check with VO on the cutoff dates for August and September? Thanks a lot.



A bit difficult to be honest w you. The reason being, their processing times for 485 are stuck at the ones filed in Q4 2010. But USCIS is strange sometimes and some applications will scrape by. I just wouldn't like to say that generally that's what will happen.

for this year, is there a possibility that PWMB cases that are filed during early July'11 might get approved as there will be ~3 months time for approval prior to Sep 30.

Thanks!

[qesehmk]

That's for sure. The better the 2011 will be the worse 2012 will be from EB2IC perspective.

Q,
Let's hope for the best for FY 2011, but processing delay(EB1&EB2ROW-M-P) is going to hurt EB2I&C movement in the long run.

[vishnu]

Q - you mentioned: the favorability in EB1 EB2ROW this year is because of delay in processing. Not the reduction in demand itself. That could be the case for EB2 row but for EB1, didn't CO say that demand is extremely low - that would mean that the number of applications filed itself is lower, now that processing delays. Or did I understand that incorrectly.

[leo07]

Q, I don't think they will waste visas either. But, I do think that they will not be able to follow fifo all through.

My question is more about the applications that are filed( to be filed) in July-August-September. Will CIS/DOS be able to allocate visas from the current quota, even if they were to be processed post october 2011.

Not sure, if I framed my question clearly:)



Leo, a lot of those 35K are already processed. Secondly I wouldn't doubt USCIS's ability to process 35K in two months when almost all of them are preadjudicated. The visa allocation will proceed mostly by PD. That's what the law says.

Bottomline I do not believe for a second that any visa will be wasted.


.

[neospeed]

Q, I don't think they will waste visas either. But, I do think that they will not be able to follow fifo all through.

My question is more about the applications that are filed( to be filed) in July-August-September. Will CIS/DOS be able to allocate visas from the current quota, even if they were to be processed post october 2011.

Not sure, if I framed my question clearly:)

I dont think they will be able to process any new applications. They are some preadjucated cases July,Aug 2007, they probably clear those.

[pch053]

we have an AC21 thread at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?63-All-about-AC21 we can use that.
Thanks; I have a post in the above thread with the contents of the AC21 acknowledgement letter that I received from USCIS a while back.

[leo07]

So, what are they going to do with these new applications, which they cannot get through the system before October 1st?

One answer is, these applications will sit in the line until next festive season.( Jul-Aug-Sept)
I'm trying to find out if they can allot visas,if available, for these applications from this years pool, but process after October 2011.


I dont think they will be able to process any new applications. They are some preadjucated cases July,Aug 2007, they probably clear those.

[Spectator]

As of now, for EB2-I I see the following approvals in trackitt:
May 2011: 138 (only 28 of these approvals are after 15th May)
June 2011: 129 (as of now)
In the month of May, most of the approvals were in the first half of the month and there were only 28 approvals after 15th May. If this trend follows in June too, then we won't have that many more approvals (maybe another 40 - 50 or so in trackitt) for the rest of the month. So, one thing that is surprising to me is that even though the movement in PDs was quite different for the months of May and June (7 weeks vs. 19 weeks), the # of trackitt approvals during these two months is not significantly different. Also, is there a thumb rule on what fraction of overall EB2I is represented inside trackitt (I have seen estimates ranging from 5 - 7%)? If so, it might give us an idea on the # of applicants in the overall EB2I pool that are getting their I485 approvals.
That information is already available here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010 and is updated at least daily. It is for Primary applicants only and is adjusted for Porting cases, different chargeability etc.

For comparison, the approval profile for May, versus the one in June to date is.

MAY
Date - 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 -- 10 -- 11 -- 12 -- 13 -- 14 -- 15 -- 16 -- 17 -- 18 -- 19 -- 20 -- 21 -- 22 -- 23 -- 24 -- 25 -- 26 -- 27 -- 28 -- 29 -- 30 --31
No. -- 0 - 15 - 23 - 19 - 14 -- 2 -- 0 -- 0 - 14 --- 8 --- 9 --- 7 --- 8 --- 4 --- 2 --- 3 --- 3 ---3 --- 2 --- 2 --- 0 --- 0 --- 2 --- 2 --- 0 --- 6 --- 6 --- 0 --- 0 --- 2 --- 5
Total - 161

JUNE
Date - 1 -- 2 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 -- 6 -- 7 -- 8 -- 9 -- 10 -- 11 -- 12 -- 13 -- 14 -- 15 -- 16 -- 17 -- 18 -- 19 -- 20 -- 21 -- 22 -- 23 -- 24 -- 25 -- 26 -- 27 -- 28 -- 29 -- 30
No. -- 6 - 20 - 23 -- 3 -- 4 -- 5 - 19 - 18 - 11 --- 5 --- 1 --- 0 --- 5 --- 3
Total - 125

The May profile suggests USCIS were able to allocate the available numbers fairly quickly. Since there are more available in June, perhaps the tail won't be so long.

[veni001]

So, what are they going to do with these new applications, which they cannot get through the system before October 1st?

One answer is, these applications will sit in the line until next festive season.( Jul-Aug-Sept)
I'm trying to find out if they can allot visas,if available, for these applications from this years pool, but process after October 2011.

Leo07,
It's not just EB2I&C demand for the next two months, we have to realize the fact that there are ~20k (EB1&EB2ROW-M-P) pending, of which ~15k is from FY 2010 and before.
Since 485 processing dates are almost at the end of 2010, the number of approvable applications out of the 15k in the next two months is key!

[pch053]

That information is already available here http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?60-EB2-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2011-vs.-FY2010 and is updated at least daily. It is for Primary applicants only and is adjusted for Porting cases, different chargeability etc.

The May profile suggests USCIS were able to allocate the available numbers fairly quickly. Since there are more available in June, perhaps the tail won't be so long.

Thanks Spec for the link; it is very informative. Sorry, I missed it before I posted the above!

[Spectator]

So, what are they going to do with these new applications, which they cannot get through the system before October 1st?

One answer is, these applications will sit in the line until next festive season.( Jul-Aug-Sept)
I'm trying to find out if they can allot visas,if available, for these applications from this years pool, but process after October 2011.

The applications can be processed through to pre-adjudication in time for the next spillover season, giving a maximum of 9 months to do so.

USCIS do not request a visa from DOS for a case until it is adjudicated - until then, they don't know if it is approvable.

In any case, if such a mechanism existed, they would have to use it for the backlog of EB1/EB2-ROW cases that are already Current, reducing SOFAD - why only the new EB2-IC cases?

[qesehmk]

vishnu that is visa demand CO talked about. it is completely different from 485 new receipts in 2011 which is what we are talking about.

Q - you mentioned: the favorability in EB1 EB2ROW this year is because of delay in processing. Not the reduction in demand itself. That could be the case for EB2 row but for EB1, didn't CO say that demand is extremely low - that would mean that the number of applications filed itself is lower, now that processing delays. Or did I understand that incorrectly.

Leo, yes strict FIFO is never possible for a lot legitimate reasons. Any applications filed in Jul-Sep have a very less chance of going through regardless they are EB1-5 or which country of chargeability. I do not believe they will allocate visas to them simply because they need to complete all processing before a visa could be requested.

Q, I don't think they will waste visas either. But, I do think that they will not be able to follow fifo all through.
My question is more about the applications that are filed( to be filed) in July-August-September. Will CIS/DOS be able to allocate visas from the current quota, even if they were to be processed post october 2011.


Thanks PCH

Thanks; I have a post in the above thread with the contents of the AC21 acknowledgement letter that I received from USCIS a while back.

[leo07]

I do understand that there are pending applications that will consume some of these visas. If CIS is moving these dates forward, they are moving with a plan.(or without?).

I'm trying to understand what they will do( apart from retrogressing the dates).


Leo07,
It's not just EB2I&C demand for the next two months, we have to realize the fact that there are ~20k (EB1&EB2ROW-M-P) pending, of which ~15k is from FY 2010 and before.
Since 485 processing dates are almost at the end of 2010, the number of approvable applications out of the 15k in the next two months is key!

[leo07]

Thanks Q!

I think the same,like I said before I want more people to say it, as m mind hates to believe the fact that apps sit there pre-adjudicated, until next festive season:)


vishnu that is visa demand CO talked about. it is completely different from 485 new receipts in 2011 which is what we are talking about.


Leo, yes strict FIFO is never possible for a lot legitimate reasons. Any applications filed in Jul-Sep have a very less chance of going through regardless they are EB1-5 or which country of chargeability. I do not believe they will allocate visas to them simply because they need to complete all processing before a visa could be requested.


Thanks PCH

[veni001]

I do understand that there are pending applications that will consume some of these visas. If CIS is moving these dates forward, they are moving with a plan.(or without?).

I'm trying to understand what they will do( apart from retrogressing the dates).


Thanks Q!

I think the same,like I said before I want more people to say it, as m mind hates to believe the fact that apps sit there pre-adjudicated, until next festive season:)

leo07,
If DOS/USCIS move dates similar to what we have been predicting(into Q1 2008) in the next two VB, then they have no option but retrogress dates back to where they will have 1,000 -1,500 before PD in Oct2011 VB for EB2I.
As we know porting is a continuous process, USCIS can utilize 2,800 quota in the first two quarters of FY 2012 (similar to what they did this year) to approve cases pending+porting before OCT VB PD.

If EB1 continue similar trending next year then they can repeat FY 2011 PD progression in FY 2012, starting Q3, if not they can pre-adjudicate cases and wait for SOFAD, if any, to kick in Q4 2012.

[natvyas]

From what I have understood from the different posts it that there are visas available and they are lot more applications available, however owing to the processing time the applications are not being tied to a visa. In this scenario what happens to those visas that are not tied to an application and are sitting out there.

[Spectator]

From what I have understood from the different posts it that there are visas available and they are lot more applications available, however owing to the processing time the applications are not being tied to a visa. In this scenario what happens to those visas that are not tied to an application and are sitting out there.natvyas,

The processing time will only be applicable to new applications submitted, not the existing pre-adjudicated inventory.

I think it is unlikely that there will be more visas available than applications in EB2 that can be immediately approved to consume them. It is a big deal to make sufficient visas available to clear the current backlog.

If there are, some could be used for CP cases ahead of July 2007, if the Cut Off Dates are moved beyond July 2007 because of the different way that NVC process CP cases.

In the worst case, EB3-ROW can be advanced slightly further than otherwise, so that pre-adjudicated cases there can consume the visas.

I think it is unlikely we will see that last scenario, unless there are substantial numbers of previously pre-adjudicated EB2-IC cases that cannot be closed out for some unknown reason.

For new applications that can not be processed in time to approve this FY, they can be processed to the point of pre-adjudication and then wait for the Cut Off Dates to become Current again for approval.

[Spectator]

I am increasing thinking that DOS might (and should) move the date beyond July 2007 in September, regardless of whether there is sufficient SOFAD to cover approvals of all the current backlog.

There need to be sufficient cases ready to be approved next year. Moving the dates once FY2012 starts is problematical because the initial limits apply.

DOS are surely going to get close enough this FY that they can put any excess movement down to unduly pessimistic estimations.

This will allow cases to be collected for next year and give the maximum time for them to be adjudicated.

When FY2012 starts in October, the Cut Off Date can be retrogressed to the real level and progress according to the law.

Under this scenario, depending on the exact level of SOFAD, approvals in September may stop when the visa supply is exhausted. Last year, there were reports that FB visas ran out 2 weeks before the end of the FY.

Of course, this is mere speculation, with no facts to back it up.

[ChampU]

I am increasing thinking that DOS might (and should) move the date beyond July 2007 in September, regardless of whether there is sufficient SOFAD to cover approvals of all the current backlog.

There need to be sufficient cases ready to be approved next year. Moving the dates once FY2012 starts is problematical because the initial limits apply.
Of course, this is mere speculation, with no facts to back it up.

Spec, in your estimates, how far ahead of July 2007 would build enough inventory that would cover approvals in FY 2012.

I agree that moving dates forward and retrogressing in October is a much feasible solution than waiting for the current backlog to exhaust and then opening the doors to accept new applications in Q3/Q4 2012.

[mvinayam]

Found out the link in trackitt for June Inventory Data.

http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment%20Based%20I-485%20Pending%20Inventory%20as%20of%20June%202011. pdf

Thanks,
mvinayam

[haripathhi]

Spec,

Here's what beats me and I may be entirely wrong. If the dates move to Aug, 2007 (which they very well might) in the next bulletin, then would DOS not have an idea about the amount of 485 apps filed? Looking at that count, would they want to move the dates even a month ahead cause they will have sufficient applications for sometime next year (at least for the first two quarters - based on the PWMB population)? My guess is that even if they stay put at Aug 2007 until the first two quarters of next year, they will have enough applications to process till then. After which they can move it next year...Sorry, I am being a little pessimistic here.



I am increasing thinking that DOS might (and should) move the date beyond July 2007 in September, regardless of whether there is sufficient SOFAD to cover approvals of all the current backlog.

There need to be sufficient cases ready to be approved next year. Moving the dates once FY2012 starts is problematical because the initial limits apply.

DOS are surely going to get close enough this FY that they can put any excess movement down to unduly pessimistic estimations.

This will allow cases to be collected for next year and give the maximum time for them to be adjudicated.

When FY2012 starts in October, the Cut Off Date can be retrogressed to the real level and progress according to the law.

Under this scenario, depending on the exact level of SOFAD, approvals in September may stop when the visa supply is exhausted. Last year, there were reports that FB visas ran out 2 weeks before the end of the FY.

Of course, this is mere speculation, with no facts to back it up.

[qesehmk]

While spec gets back to you ... let me try to do something else.

Lets try to pain the picture that DoS / USCIS do not want any new 485s and try to scrape through the inventory they have as much as tehy can.

So lets say they move dates to Jul/Aug 2007. That will allow all PWMBs to file (approx 5K). That is more than sufficient to create demand equal or more than 2012 supply. In fact the ongoing EB3 conversions are covering the entire supply of visas for EB2I. This story will be true until May 2012 hits. Which is when extra SOFAD may be available. How much extra? That's anyone's guess. But I would say at least 10K even if we assume EB1 and EB2ROW come roaring back. So the worst case scenario would require the dates not only move past Aug 2007 but that they move past well in advance to create sufficient pipeline. How much is well in advance? May be 9 months at least. So thats a movement in Oct or November of 2011 latest.

That's why I agree w Spec's logic. If the dates move around Aug 2007 in next couple of months and then they will definitely move at least by 6 months in next 2 months and then retrogress. The retrogression is necessary to allow processing in FIFO manner.



Spec,

Here's what beats me and I may be entirely wrong. If the dates move to Aug, 2007 (which they very well might) in the next bulletin, then would DOS not have an idea about the amount of 485 apps filed? Looking at that count, would they want to move the dates even a month ahead cause they will have sufficient applications for sometime next year (at least for the first two quarters - based on the PWMB population)? My guess is that even if they stay put at Aug 2007 until the first two quarters of next year, they will have enough applications to process till then. After which they can move it next year...Sorry, I am being a little pessimistic here.

[ChampU]

While spec gets back to you ... let me try to do something else.

Lets try to pain the picture that DoS / USCIS do not want any new 485s and try to scrape through the inventory they have as much as tehy can.

So lets say they move dates to Jul/Aug 2007. That will allow all PWMBs to file (approx 5K). That is more than sufficient to create demand equal or more than 2012 supply. In fact the ongoing EB3 conversions are covering the entire supply of visas for EB2I. This story will be true until May 2012 hits. Which is when extra SOFAD may be available. How much extra? That's anyone's guess. But I would say at least 10K even if we assume EB1 and EB2ROW come roaring back. So the worst case scenario would require the dates not only move past Aug 2007 but that they move past well in advance to create sufficient pipeline. How much is well in advance? May be 9 months at least. So thats a movement in Oct or November of 2011 latest.

That's why I agree w Spec's logic. If the dates move around Aug 2007 in next couple of months and then they will definitely move at least by 6 months in next 2 months and then retrogress. The retrogression is necessary to allow processing in FIFO manner.

Q, Assuming the dates move to June/July 2007 in the August bulletin and then X months ahead in the September bulletin and then retrogress in October, the cut off date would be in the June-August 2007 (PD of the PWMB whose case could not be processed in FY 2011) range, right?
From November onwards the date will move @ 250 visas per month until the next spillover season starts..Is that correct?

[pch053]

I think there is a possibility that from Oct/Nov onwards, the cutoff dates might remain static anywhere between June - Aug'07 as there will be enough PWMB cases + a steady flow of EB3 -> EB2 conversions. Probably, the dates will move again from next May but this assumes that USCIS has already moved the dates forward past the Aug'07 mark in this Sep bulletin itself to create a new pipeline of EB2I/C cases. Look forward to hear what Q, Spec and others think on this!

[leo07]

Hi ChampU,

VB Dates will definitely stagnate, if not retrogress.(depending on the forward leap it takes of course). I'd assume the dates would move just as the last two years, but with some technical improvements. Like, 2011 DOS/CIS coordination is better than 2010.

Best!


Q, Assuming the dates move to June/July 2007 in the August bulletin and then X months ahead in the September bulletin and then retrogress in October, the cut off date would be in the June-August 2007 (PD of the PWMB whose case could not be processed in FY 2011) range, right?
From November onwards the date will move @ 250 visas per month until the next spillover season starts..Is that correct?

[ChampU]

Hi ChampU,

VB Dates will definitely stagnate, if not retrogress.(depending on the forward leap it takes of course). I'd assume the dates would move just as the last two years, but with some technical improvements. Like, 2011 DOS/CIS coordination is better than 2010.

Best!

I agree that because of better co-ordination between CIS and DOS, there would be more transparency in the VBs, inventory and the demand data. But I doubt if the movement would anything like the last 2 years.
A consequence of July 2007 activity was that the demand of visas was known and it offered the CIS a 4 year window to pre-adjudicate the applications and provide accurate numbers to the DoS. Thats the reason dates moved smoothly and the prediction models proposed by the experts on this forum were spot on.

With the current inventory nearly depleted, we again encounter muddy waters of unknown demand.. that combined with the economic downturn in 2008/2009.. AND A POSSIBLE BRAIN DRAIN from this forum (the gurus WILL BE greened in the next 1-2 months) we again are left with speculating possible movements in FY 2012.

[leo07]

I understand that the element of uncertainity in Dates-movement is marginally higher for 2012. However, I think the numbers that would come-into system between now and September 30th, plus upgrades, plus regular EB2-row demand should just be sufficient enough for DOS/CIS to not panic for next 9 months.

My thoughts fwiw:)


I agree that because of better co-ordination between CIS and DOS, there would be more transparency in the VBs, inventory and the demand data. But I doubt if the movement would anything like the last 2 years.
A consequence of July 2007 activity was that the demand of visas was known and it offered the CIS a 4 year window to pre-adjudicate the applications and provide accurate numbers to the DoS. Thats the reason dates moved smoothly and the prediction models proposed by the experts on this forum were spot on.

With the current inventory nearly depleted, we again encounter muddy waters of unknown demand.. that combined with the economic downturn in 2008/2009.. AND A POSSIBLE BRAIN DRAIN from this forum (the gurus WILL BE greened in the next 1-2 months) we again are left with speculating possible movements in FY 2012.

[Spectator]

To all that commented:

My point is this.

If DOS wait until FY2012 to take in new applications within the law, they would have to wait until May 2012 (possibly April), supposing they announce extra visas from EB1 are available again. Even that would not be enough for a full year's approvals, even if they could all be adjudicated in time, because they only have 81% of the total to play with.

Leaving it that late this year wasn't a concern, because the existing cases were already pre-adjudicated and there were a sufficient number of them.

Any attempt to move the dates forward before then, would violate the 27% per quarter law, since there will be enough older PWMB and Porting cases to consume the 757 cases allowed in the quarter. I don't believe DOS can make any comment about spare EB1 visas until at least April.

If DOS think they can get even reasonably close to exhausting cases in September 2011, DOS can advance the dates in the September VB and claim they didn't think enough demand was going to materialize and they didn't want to waste visas. Doing it in FY2012 makes it a rather obvious violation.

This also has the advantage of giving USCIS the maximum possible time to adjudicate the cases before the spillover season starts again in May/July to September 2012.

Given the already existing non EB2-IC I-485 backlogs, I think USCIS need as much time as possible. Delaying even a short while into FY2012 jeopardizes the ability of USCIS to adjudicate the cases in a timely fashion ready for the next spillover season.

It may not happen, but I am saying I think there are good reasons why they should.

[ChampU]

I understand that the element of uncertainity in Dates-movement is marginally higher for 2012. However, I think the numbers that would come-into system between now and September 30th, plus upgrades, plus regular EB2-row demand should just be sufficient enough for DOS/CIS to not panic for next 9 months.

My thoughts fwiw:)



I understand that the element of uncertainity in Dates-movement is marginally higher for 2012. However, I think the numbers that would come-into system between now and September 30th, plus upgrades, plus regular EB2-row demand should just be sufficient enough for DOS/CIS to not panic for next 9 months.

My thoughts fwiw:)


I understand that the element of uncertainity in Dates-movement is marginally higher for 2012. However, I think the numbers that would come-into system between now and September 30th, plus upgrades, plus regular EB2-row demand should just be sufficient enough for DOS/CIS to not panic for next 9 months.

My thoughts fwiw:)

I agree that if they decide the dates to stagnate around the Aug 2007 mark, they will have enough cases to process in the first 9 months of FY 2012.
1. When the next spillover season starts, even if we make a conservative estimate of a SOFAD of around 15k, would the CIS be ready to process new I-485 applications from scratch in Q4-2012?
2. What happens if the available inventory of EB2 cases (PWMB+EB3-EB2 Upgrades) runs out before the start of the spillover season in Q2/Q3 of 2012? The 5k PWMB is an estimate and the EB3-EB2 upgrades is not known, therefore a part of the unknown demand. Most of us were wrong in our estimates of porting cases.
3. What if the SOFAD next year is a bonanza (35k+) and the CIS does not have enough cases ready for the DoS? that would lead to wastage of visas (or spillover to EB3, which would open up another can of worms) and with the enhanced accountability, it would not sit well with the Ombudsman.
3. NVC emails: If the DoS follows the approach of stagnating the dates around August 2007, there is noway that the people with PD around April 2008 would be current in FY 2012. In that case, the NVC would not have sent out the emails to those folks.

However, if we consider the model of DoS moving the dates up by 9-12 months in the September bulletin and retrogress in October 2011:
1. It generates a sizeable pipeline for the CIS to pre-adjudicate about 30-40k applications, enough to absorb the biggest of possible Spillovers.
2. Wastage of visas is next to impossible in this model.
3. The DoS will not have to circumvent the 81% rule if there is any fluctuation in demand.
4. Jumping ahead and retrogressing is something that the DoS and USCIS,are pros at.

[bieber]

Q (thanks for multiple posts from u , I'm trying to put my reply in one post)

If they want to accept new applications why would they be conservative and collect from couple of quarters? I know you want the dates to be C than any specific time frame, again they may not make it C but isn't it godd for them to take more and adjudicate in their own sweet time and move dates in controlled manner?

If they move dates to jan 1 2008, they will have enough applications for now and they will be in limbo if fy 2012 sofad is even 1/3rd of fy2011.

EB1 slowing down may be not one year scenario, it's hard to imagine things like this not trending. H1b quota is still taking months to get filled and that was not 1yr event. most likely same thing will happen to EB1 because EB1-C and H1b demand basically comes from same source you know what i mean

I'm thinking they will move dates into 2009 or jan1 2010 and then retogress (I always try to see these things objectively so for sure not because I WANT it :) )

[zenmaster]

Since so many of you folks are writing up, I want to put up something on record too :)

My hunch is that they would make it 'C' in september and then retro. That way, they get 4 years + of visibility again.
Another reasoning i have is the political environment we are in right now (lots of talks all around regarding skilled immigration; bills coming up; looked up as bipartisan issue etc etc....)
This is quite similar environment we had in 2007. We all know that chances of some bill passing is like 1 in a decade :), but if something comes up, USCIS/DOS need to be ready to face the storm anyway.
Anti-Immis. who oppose all immigrant bills could also influence this... by making it current, all get 485s and shut up about immigration :D
Third, they have already streamlined 485 filing (all apps filed to TX center etc.. etc..) which helps them.

Ultimately, as all of us know, its just a guesswork.
Good luck to all of you here...
I wish all of you guys who filed 485 already, get GCs soon; and others get a chance to file 485 :)

[qesehmk]

Directionally I agree with both points you make.

1. What is the sustainable date where the retrogression will come back and stop at. I think May 2007. But if somebody says Jun-Aug 2007 I wouldn't have much problem with that.
2. 2011 Oct onwards the visa allocation for EB2I will be paltry 250 per month or so. Yes. But that is really not the point. The point is that come May 2012 there will be SOFAD and in order for DoS / USCIS to ensure that there is enough demand in EB2, they need to take in applications latest by Oct-Nov 2011 to make sure that the SOFAD will apply to those applications. Spec is stating the same thing only in a much more sophisticated manner!!



Q, Assuming the dates move to June/July 2007 in the August bulletin and then X months ahead in the September bulletin and then retrogress in October, the cut off date would be in the June-August 2007 (PD of the PWMB whose case could not be processed in FY 2011) range, right?
From November onwards the date will move @ 250 visas per month until the next spillover season starts..Is that correct?

[imechanix]

Guru's,

Do you have predictions on where EB2IC dates might stagnate after Sep 2011 Bulletin assuming all the preadjucated cases are approved. I did an estimate of EB2 PWMB India/China based on Spec's perm approval data after July 2007 which is as follows:

Equation Used: PWMB=PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor);
where, EB2:EB3 Ratio = 0.66 and Dependent Factor =2.25

Jan'07 -> 160
Feb'07 -> 290
Mar'07 -> 500
Apr'07 -> 1188
May'07 -> 1495
Jun'07 -> 1818
July'07 -> 2872
Total -> 8323

If this calculation is correct then dates can stagnate as back as Feb or March 07 as the PWMB (+ porting) demand increases significantly after that.

Thanks for the great work.

[qesehmk]

Bieber,

I agree with you. That is where the "Policy" part comes in. Personally I believe there are many good reasons (that I have already talked baout in teh past) why they should make it C keep it there until 31st Oct and then retro back to May-Jun 2007.


Q (thanks for multiple posts from u , I'm trying to put my reply in one post)

If they want to accept new applications why would they be conservative and collect from couple of quarters? I know you want the dates to be C than any specific time frame, again they may not make it C but isn't it godd for them to take more and adjudicate in their own sweet time and move dates in controlled manner?

If they move dates to jan 1 2008, they will have enough applications for now and they will be in limbo if fy 2012 sofad is even 1/3rd of fy2011.

EB1 slowing down may be not one year scenario, it's hard to imagine things like this not trending. H1b quota is still taking months to get filled and that was not 1yr event. most likely same thing will happen to EB1 because EB1-C and H1b demand basically comes from same source you know what i mean

I'm thinking they will move dates into 2009 or jan1 2010 and then retogress (I always try to see these things objectively so for sure not because I WANT it :)



Since so many of you folks are writing up, I want to put up something on record too :)

My hunch is that they would make it 'C' in september and then retro. That way, they get 4 years + of visibility again.
Another reasoning i have is the political environment we are in right now (lots of talks all around regarding skilled immigration; bills coming up; looked up as bipartisan issue etc etc....)
This is quite similar environment we had in 2007. We all know that chances of some bill passing is like 1 in a decade , but if something comes up, USCIS/DOS need to be ready to face the storm anyway.
Anti-Immis. who oppose all immigrant bills could also influence this... by making it current, all get 485s and shut up about immigration :D
Third, they have already streamlined 485 filing (all apps filed to TX center etc.. etc..) which helps them.

Ultimately, as all of us know, its just a guesswork.
Good luck to all of you here...
I wish all of you guys who filed 485 already, get GCs soon; and others get a chance to file 485

I agree and there are good economic reasons why tehy should make it current.

[Spectator]

Guru's,

Do you have predictions on where EB2IC dates might stagnate after Sep 2011 Bulletin assuming all the preadjucated cases are approved. I did an estimate of EB2 PWMB India/China based on Spec's perm approval data after July 2007 which is as follows:

Equation Used: PWMB=PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor);
where, EB2:EB3 Ratio = 0.66 and Dependent Factor =2.25

Jan'07 -> 160
Feb'07 -> 290
Mar'07 -> 500
Apr'07 -> 1188
May'07 -> 1495
Jun'07 -> 1818
July'07 -> 2872
Total -> 8323

If this calculation is correct then dates can stagnate as back as Feb or March 07 as the PWMB (+ porting) demand increases significantly after that.

Thanks for the great work.imechanix,

I haven't checked them, but I am sure your calculations are technically correct.

For EB2, the Dependent Factor is 2.1.

Your figures would represent the theoretical absolute top end. I suspect the figure might be nearer 5k for various reasons, but it is only an estimate and it could be anywhere in between.

I would hope the dates might retrogress to a slightly later date than you propose, but I wouldn't argue with your dates either.

[veni001]

imechanix,

I haven't checked them, but I am sure your calculations are technically correct.

For EB2, the Dependent Factor is 2.1.

Your figures would represent the theoretical absolute top end. I suspect the figure might be nearer 5k for various reasons, but it is only an estimate and it could be anywhere in between.

I would hope the dates might retrogress to a slightly later date than you propose, but I wouldn't argue with your dates either.


Guru's,

Do you have predictions on where EB2IC dates might stagnate after Sep 2011 Bulletin assuming all the preadjucated cases are approved. I did an estimate of EB2 PWMB India/China based on Spec's perm approval data after July 2007 which is as follows:

Equation Used: PWMB=PermIC*(EB2:EB3 Ratio)*(Dependent Factor);
where, EB2:EB3 Ratio = 0.66 and Dependent Factor =2.25

Jan'07 -> 160
Feb'07 -> 290
Mar'07 -> 500
Apr'07 -> 1188
May'07 -> 1495
Jun'07 -> 1818
July'07 -> 2872
Total -> 8323

If this calculation is correct then dates can stagnate as back as Feb or March 07 as the PWMB (+ porting) demand increases significantly after that.

Thanks for the great work.

In addition,when doing PERM to 485 projections, i would use 20% towards denials/rejections at i140 stage and duplicate/unused labors.
Also EC2C % should be higher than 0.66.

[bieber]

Spec, Veni, imechanix

63:37 ratio, 80% approval at 140, 1:2 dependent ratio will exactly match the perm number :) (0.63*0.8*2 ~1)


I'm no longer making calculations, take the perm number and that will be close enough for eb2 485

[veni001]

Spec, Veni, imechanix

63:37 ratio, 80% approval at 140, 1:2 dependent ratio will exactly match the perm number :) (0.63*0.8*2 ~1)

I'm no longer making calculations, take the perm number and that will be close enough for eb2 485

bieber,
Good, i like your rule of thumb

EB2(I+C) 485 demand in a CY ~= PERM(I+C) approvals in that CY

[TeddyKoochu]

In addition,when doing PERM to 485 projections, i would use 20% towards denials/rejections at i140 stage and duplicate/unused labors.
Also EC2C % should be higher than 0.66.

Veni great catch, I believe this will bring the numbers to the 6K range.

[leo07]

That's probably a formula that I can remember :) neat.

Spec, Veni, imechanix

63:37 ratio, 80% approval at 140, 1:2 dependent ratio will exactly match the perm number :) (0.63*0.8*2 ~1)


I'm no longer making calculations, take the perm number and that will be close enough for eb2 485

[Spectator]

Spec, Veni, imechanix

63:37 ratio, 80% approval at 140, 1:2 dependent ratio will exactly match the perm number :) (0.63*0.8*2 ~1)


I'm no longer making calculations, take the perm number and that will be close enough for eb2 485

bieber,

I tend to do exactly that for some of the later years.

I am still not entirely convinced that the EB2:EB3 ratio was quite as high for 2007.

There remains the prospect that EB3 is severely under-represented in the Inventory and Demand Data because significant numbers are still at LO pending interview.

LO are known for only interviewing cases just ahead of them becoming Current.

Because the EB3-I dates move so slowly and are so far in the past, there could be a lot of cases still to emerge from the LO and it will take a decade or more to make a real estimate for EB3-I. There appear to be as many as 3k cases added to the EB3-I Inventory this year.

The EB3-ROW figures (where the dates are later and move somewhat faster) suggest their total Inventory has increased 45% in this FY. The October starting figure was reported as 40k, but it now calculates back to nearly 59k! (40k initial Inventory + 5k higher in June Inventory + 14k cases approved to the end of May 2011). Most of the increase is accounted for in the period up to the end of 2005.

If the EB3-I Inventory were to double for 2007, the effective ratio would be around 50:50.

It is a bit speculative, but it concerns me enough to mention it.