EB2 Predictions (Rather Calculations) - 2011

[qesehmk]

Yep! They are quite rare. But exist nonetheless. No need to consider them separately.
Q,

Also, these anamolies are nearly negligible in number. There are also arguments such as cross-chargeability, etc., which lead to these genuine approvals. Nevertheles, anamolies such as approvals outside of current priority date is perhaps less than 0.001%

[bieber]

Perhaps you meant, all "pre-adjudicated" backlog. If the case has not been pre-adjudicated, it takes about 3 months.
ofcourse, I don't think PWMB and new portings will be approved this fy.

Keeping in mind this is only 6th calendar day of the month and Oct10th PD getting approved appears very efficient effort from CIS.

[TeluguBidda]

ofcourse, I don't think PWMB and new portings will be approved this fy.

Keeping in mind this is only 6th calendar day of the month and Oct10th PD getting approved appears very efficient effort from CIS.

Not really. CIS actually has improved their systems quite-a-bit. In fact, after the 10th of every month, approvals drop down significantly. Most activity happens during 1st and 10th, which inturn lets DOS know the usage vs. demand, in order to prepare upcoming month's visa bulletin.

From what I was told, CIS has a ready-to-go listing every month and they stamp approvals on these "pre-adjudicated" cases, except for few ones which require RFEs, other problems, etc.

[TeddyKoochu]

Not really. CIS actually has improved their systems quite-a-bit. In fact, after the 10th of every month, approvals drop down significantly. Most activity happens during 1st and 10th, which inturn lets DOS know the usage vs. demand, in order to prepare upcoming month's visa bulletin.

From what I was told, CIS has a ready-to-go listing every month and they stamp approvals on these "pre-adjudicated" cases, except for few ones which require RFEs, other problems, etc.

I believe what you are saying is very true, today there are a very large number of reports about approvals for Friday and some people also received approvals over the weekend. So looks like they are setting the stage for the upcoming VB. I hope we advance to 01-Feb2007 atleast in the Jul VB. Good luck to all.

[soggadu]

I am using the Trackitt % from last year. I adjusted EB2-I to account for CO's statement that the limit was reached at the end of April, but I was within a few visa numbers anyway.

The EB2-I number is pretty accurate I think. China isn't very well represented, so the error margin is wider for them.

PS I'm off into the wilds with no internet access shortly. I'll be back late Monday and will update everything then, including adding that thread in the FACTS & DATA section (unless I get eaten by a bear or bitten by a poisonous snake).

Spec...if you are still alive, please update the facts section with number of cases approved for EB2 I for June 2011

[Spectator]

Spec...if you are still alive, please update the facts section with number of cases approved for EB2 I for June 2011

Didn't get eaten by a bear - done (or was doing it as you posted).

[qesehmk]

Spec You have aroused our curiousity. You must disclose this information in public interest :-)


I'm off into the wilds with no internet access shortly. I'll be back late Monday and will update everything then, including adding that thread in the FACTS & DATA section (unless I get eaten by a bear or bitten by a poisonous snake).


Spec...if you are still alive, please update the facts section with number of cases approved for EB2 I for June 2011
sogaddu ... please check the SOFAD PROJECTIONS thread within FACTS and DATA section. I have already updated this info a few days back.
p.s. - If Spec doesn't respond within 48 hours lets start a thread with suggested obituries for Spec's headstone. Here is mine in advance for Spec - "He was a good guy ... until he filed his labor."

[qesehmk]

Hey you beat me!
Didn't get eaten by a bear - done (or was doing it as you posted).

[TeluguBidda]

I believe what you are saying is very true, today there are a very large number of reports about approvals for Friday and some people also received approvals over the weekend. So looks like they are setting the stage for the upcoming VB. I hope we advance to 01-Feb2007 atleast in the Jul VB. Good luck to all.

Well, Feb 2007 seems to be unlikely. After doing calculations based on data from Q, Spec, Yourself and others, I feel like they might push it to Dec 2006 (or, at the most, Jan 2007). Based on their pessimistic tone / note in June visa bulletin, it appears like there will be 1.5 to 2.5 months move.

[TeddyKoochu]

Well, Feb 2007 seems to be unlikely. After doing calculations based on data from Q, Spec, Yourself and others, I feel like they might push it to Dec 2006 (or, at the most, Jan 2007). Based on their pessimistic tone / note in June visa bulletin, it appears like there will be 1.5 to 2.5 months move.

01-FEB-2007 is what Iam hoping so that we stay on Track for 01-AUG-2007 in September. But this date represents a progression of around 8K numbers its not all that hard. 01-JAN-2007 looks almost like a certainty though. The VB projections unfortunately have changed very drastically in some cases take for example porting from the May - Jun bulletin. We should only looks at them for high level guidance, they reevaluate the situation every month. Lets hope for the best.

[qesehmk]

Teddy, for Aug 2007 in Sep Bulletin, the total SOFAD needs to be as follows:

43K (EB2IC backlog) + 2K (EB2IC CP) + 5K (EB2IC Porting and PWMBs) = 50K.

Now of all of this various categories will provide MAX as follows:
EB 5 - 9K
EB 4 - 0K
EB 1 - 20K
EB 2 ROWMP - 8K
EB2 IC QUOTA - 6K

Total - 43K.

So even the most optimistic scenario falls short by 7K.

Wonder where is the mismatch between our understanding?


01-FEB-2007 is what Iam hoping so that we stay on Track for 01-AUG-2007 in September. But this date represents a progression of around 8K numbers its not all that hard. 01-JAN-2007 looks almost like a certainty though. The VB projections unfortunately have changed very drastically in some cases take for example porting from the May - Jun bulletin. We should only looks at them for high level guidance, they reevaluate the situation every month. Lets hope for the best.

[tanu_75]

Teddy, for Aug 2007 in Sep Bulletin, the total SOFAD needs to be as follows:

43K (EB2IC backlog) + 2K (EB2IC CP) + 5K (EB2IC Porting and PWMBs) = 50K.

Now of all of this various categories will provide MAX as follows:
EB 5 - 9K
EB 4 - 0K
EB 1 - 20K
EB 2 ROWMP - 8K
EB2 IC QUOTA - 6K

Total - 43K.

So even the most optimistic scenario falls short by 7K.

Wonder where is the mismatch between our understanding?

Q, wasn't the backlog 34k not 43k. If I look at the demand data used for prep of Oct 2010 VB, the backlog for EB2(mostly IC) is 34,325.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy, for Aug 2007 in Sep Bulletin, the total SOFAD needs to be as follows:

43K (EB2IC backlog) + 2K (EB2IC CP) + 5K (EB2IC Porting and PWMBs) = 50K.

Now of all of this various categories will provide MAX as follows:
EB 5 - 9K
EB 4 - 0K
EB 1 - 20K
EB 2 ROWMP - 8K
EB2 IC QUOTA - 6K

Total - 43K.

So even the most optimistic scenario falls short by 7K.

Wonder where is the mismatch between our understanding?

Q we can come pretty close to it if we see another 24K a month @8k for the next 3 months. The PWMB's will be like virtual demand they may not count and will be a buffer at best. I think the 5K (EB2IC Porting and PWMBs) that you budgeted is primarily PWMB. However the Jul bulletin really will be a litmus test for it if it falls short of 01-Feb-2007 there is no chance then. Now coming to how another 24K is possible a) 8K from EB5 is fairly certain b) 3K from the 12K EB1 is pending and maybe another 5K can be accumulated in the coming months but it is an overstretch c) EB2 ROW I feel that 6-7K is realistic, stretching to 8K maybe hard.

[qesehmk]

Tanu, You are right. My 43K already includes 5K of PWMB & 4K of porting. So the real number is 34K only. Since PWMB do not have much of a chance of processing, AND porting are well contained as we predicted, the 32-36K NET SOFAD (based on TRACKITT TREND) should be sufficient to carry the dates into July 2007.


Q, wasn't the backlog 34k not 43k. If I look at the demand data used for prep of Oct 2010 VB, the backlog for EB2(mostly IC) is 34,325.


Q we can come pretty close to it if we see another 24K a month @8k for the next 3 months. The PWMB's will be like virtual demand they may not count and will be a buffer at best. I think the 5K (EB2IC Porting and PWMBs) that you budgeted is primarily PWMB. However the Jul bulletin really will be a litmus test for it if it falls short of 01-Feb-2007 there is no chance then. Now coming to how another 24K is possible a) 8K from EB5 is fairly certain b) 3K from the 12K EB1 is pending and maybe another 5K can be accumulated in the coming months but it is an overstretch c) EB2 ROW I feel that 6-7K is realistic, stretching to 8K maybe hard.

Teddy, I was doublecounting as I said above. So yes I think we will be very close to July 2007 if TRACKITT TREND holds. I will be able to vote after I see this months bulletin. As per the breakout I think EB1 can give upto 18K. EB2 upto 7K. So yes your 24K isn't far fetched. Now whether trackitt trend will hold, we should beable to say that conclusively by next week when we see teh movement in VB!

[bieber]

Not really. CIS actually has improved their systems quite-a-bit. In fact, after the 10th of every month, approvals drop down significantly. Most activity happens during 1st and 10th, which inturn lets DOS know the usage vs. demand, in order to prepare upcoming month's visa bulletin.

From what I was told, CIS has a ready-to-go listing every month and they stamp approvals on these "pre-adjudicated" cases, except for few ones which require RFEs, other problems, etc.
good to know, thanks

[bieber]

Q

sometimes I get the feeling you just test others by doing mistakes on purpose :)

just kidding bro, you better be here after next month (I'm sure you will get your gc in next 30 days)

[qesehmk]

LoL!! I used to think that way ... but after 10 years of marriage I have started admitting my mistakes :)


Q

sometimes I get the feeling you just test others by doing mistakes on purpose :)

just kidding bro, you better be here after next month (I'm sure you will get your gc in next 30 days)

[tanu_75]

Tanu, You are right. My 43K already includes 5K of PWMB & 4K of porting. So the real number is 34K only. Since PWMB do not have much of a chance of processing, AND porting are well contained as we predicted, the 32-36K NET SOFAD (based on TRACKITT TREND) should be sufficient to carry the dates into July 2007.




Teddy, I was doublecounting as I said above. So yes I think we will be very close to July 2007 if TRACKITT TREND holds. I will be able to vote after I see this months bulletin. As per the breakout I think EB1 can give upto 18K. EB2 upto 7K. So yes your 24K isn't far fetched. Now whether trackitt trend will hold, we should beable to say that conclusively by next week when we see teh movement in VB!

Just thinking out loud here. I think if we assume that they are moving dates too late in the game for approvals and they don't want to waste visas, the PWMB probably won't be accounted for in this year, no? if this is true, then as a conservative estimate we can still get around 12k (eb1) + 6k(quota) + 6k (eb2) + 5k(eb5) = 29k . so conservatively we should move to around mar/apr 2007 (by end of year). then they are left with only 2-5k from eb2 backlog and maybe around 6k more from pwmb so around 8-10k. So then it's perception game in DOS whether they think they should advance the dates now or wait till later. I feel they move dates by a year or so beyond the max approval date (mar/apr 2007), so mar/apr 2008 by sep 2011 knowing that

1. demand is falling post july 2007 through 2008 before building up a little more in 2009 (as per PERM data)
2. they need to have enough time to build the preadj cases to move them off shelf next jun/jul when this opens up again, knowing that they better give time to USCIS otherwise it'll be chaos again next year and visas will be inevitably wasted if opened late.
3. they need to have a pre-adj pipeline of around 25k cases.

[pch053]

I think we are all in agreement and its the most logical conclusion that the PDs will advance to the vicinity of April'07 - July'07 by Sep bulletin. The thing we are unsure is that how USCIS will advance the PDs from then onwards. The options are: i) advance by a year in the Sep bulletin and then retrogress from Oct, ii) advance the dates gradually next year, though they will have enough PWMB cases to adjudicate even without advancing for first 6 - 7 months, iii) advance dates around next May or so such that there will be enough time to adjudicate cases without wasting visas, iv) any other option that I have missed.

I think July's bulletin will give us an idea which way we are headed. If I remember correctly from last year, most of the forward movement happened during July and Aug bulletins and the PDs moved only 2 months for the Sep bulletin. Not sure whether same trend will be followed though for this year. Are we expecting the July bulletin this coming Friday?

Thanks!

[suninphx]

Looking forward for dates to move Jul/aug 2007. That will take out one unknown factor (so called PWMB) factor out of equation. I feel PWMB number is slightly hyped.

[qesehmk]

Are we expecting the July bulletin this coming Friday?
Yes.


Looking forward for dates to move Jul/aug 2007. That will take out one unknown factor (so called PWMB) factor out of equation. I feel PWMB number is slightly hyped.
suniphx that conclusion can be reached after the dates are past May-Jun 2007 at the least AND 485 inventory is published. Most of the PWMBs are bet Jan-Jul 2007 and the dates are yet to go there.

p.s. - I do not call anybody after Jul 2007 as a PWMB since their PD is post July 2007 fiasco. Then it just becomes the normal demand.

[suninphx]

Yes.


suniphx that conclusion can be reached after the dates are past May-Jun 2007 at the least AND 485 inventory is published. Most of the PWMBs are bet Jan-Jul 2007 and the dates are yet to go there.

p.s. - I do not call anybody after Jul 2007 as a PWMB since their PD is post July 2007 fiasco. Then it just becomes the normal demand.

Q, exactly the point. Hence looking for dates to move to Jul 2007 and ofcourse inventory published.

[veni001]

Just thinking out loud here. I think if we assume that they are moving dates too late in the game for approvals and they don't want to waste visas, the PWMB probably won't be accounted for in this year, no? if this is true, then as a conservative estimate we can still get around 12k (eb1) + 6k(quota) + 6k (eb2) + 5k(eb5) = 29k . so conservatively we should move to around mar/apr 2007 (by end of year). then they are left with only 2-5k from eb2 backlog and maybe around 6k more from pwmb so around 8-10k. So then it's perception game in DOS whether they think they should advance the dates now or wait till later. I feel they move dates by a year or so beyond the max approval date (mar/apr 2007), so mar/apr 2008 by sep 2011 knowing that

1. demand is falling post july 2007 through 2008 before building up a little more in 2009 (as per PERM data)
2. they need to have enough time to build the preadj cases to move them off shelf next jun/jul when this opens up again, knowing that they better give time to USCIS otherwise it'll be chaos again next year and visas will be inevitably wasted if opened late.
3. they need to have a pre-adj pipeline of around 25k cases.

tanu_75,
Which is not true please see PERM Matrix (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) in FACTS AND DATA Section.

[veni001]

I believe what you are saying is very true, today there are a very large number of reports about approvals for Friday and some people also received approvals over the weekend. So looks like they are setting the stage for the upcoming VB. I hope we advance to 01-Feb2007 atleast in the Jul VB. Good luck to all.


Tanu, You are right. My 43K already includes 5K of PWMB & 4K of porting. So the real number is 34K only. Since PWMB do not have much of a chance of processing, AND porting are well contained as we predicted, the 32-36K NET SOFAD (based on TRACKITT TREND) should be sufficient to carry the dates into July 2007.


Teddy, I was doublecounting as I said above. So yes I think we will be very close to July 2007 if TRACKITT TREND holds. I will be able to vote after I see this months bulletin. As per the breakout I think EB1 can give upto 18K. EB2 upto 7K. So yes your 24K isn't far fetched. Now whether trackitt trend will hold, we should beable to say that conclusively by next week when we see teh movement in VB!

Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?

[suninphx]

Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?

Veni001 has a very valid point.

[soggadu]

Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?

Veni... If we r expecting 24k for final quarter with around 21k pending applications... Why are the predictions still around April/may 07??

[veni001]

Veni... If we r expecting 24k for final quarter with around 21k pending applications... Why are the predictions still around April/may 07??

soggadu,
As you can see from the discussion, we are counting 24k as upper bound and 18k on the conservative side.

[tanu_75]

tanu_75,
Which is not true please see PERM Matrix (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations-By-SPECTATOR-amp-VENI) in FACTS AND DATA Section.
Yes, you are correct. Demand did not slow in 2008, but was flat and decreased in 2009.

Regardless the point is, C+I PERM is around 28k for a year around that timeframe. Assuming we add an extra year to the max approval date, then total perm received is around 28k for a year. Put a ratio of around 0.5 on EB2 and multiply by around 2.2 for dependents, then we end at around 30k possible new 485 applications. However we'll be missing some non-PERM EB2 like NIW but I think that's a small number. Essentially let's assume USCIS has a safe buffer number which they always like to have, a pre-adjudicated ready number of files they like to have in their shelves come July of every year. If that's 25k-30k, they may move by around 10 months beyond mar/apr 2007, around Jan 2008. My bet is they have become wiser in terms of understanding that they can't expect to do background checks and approve tens of thousands of 485 applications in 3 months. That's not happening, so they will have to open up beyond Jul 2007 sometime in the next 12 months. When and by how much is the only question. My expectation is by Sep 2011 and to Mar/Apr 2008.

[soggadu]

soggadu,
As you can see from the discussion, we are counting 24k as upper bound and 18k on the conservative side.

I understand that is the upper bound , I think you put in the upper bound assuming they might be hitting that date if possible right...so my question is about that possibility... What will happen if it is > 22k of spiller for the last Quarter?

[suninphx]

Yes, you are correct. Demand did not slow in 2008, but was flat and decreased in 2009.

Regardless the point is, C+I PERM is around 28k for a year around that timeframe. Assuming we add an extra year to the max approval date, then total perm received is around 28k for a year. Put a ratio of around 0.5 on EB2 and multiply by around 2.2 for dependents, then we end at around 30k possible new 485 applications. However we'll be missing some non-PERM EB2 like NIW but I think that's a small number. Essentially let's assume USCIS has a safe buffer number which they always like to have, a pre-adjudicated ready number of files they like to have in their shelves come July of every year. If that's 25k-30k, they may move by around 10 months beyond mar/apr 2007, around Jan 2008. My bet is they have become wiser in terms of understanding that they can't expect to do background checks and approve tens of thousands of 485 applications in 3 months. That's not happening, so they will have to open up beyond Jul 2007 sometime in the next 12 months. When and by how much is the only question. My expectation is by Sep 2011 and to Mar/Apr 2008.

If you look for the posts for a 1-2 months back or so...this point has been discussed extensively and every one kind of agrees that concerned authorities may like to go for 'controlled' movement of dates.

[tanu_75]

If you look for the posts for a 1-2 months back or so...this point has been discussed extensively and every one kind of agrees that concerned authorities may like to go for 'controlled' movement of dates.

Thanks, good to know that. I'm looking out for post July 2007 dates given that my PD is in 2008, so while we are discussing which 2007 dates we get to, I'm more interested in the meaning of 'controlled', since mar/apr 2007 is pretty much a given.

[veni001]

Yes, you are correct. Demand did not slow in 2008, but was flat and decreased in 2009.

Regardless the point is, C+I PERM is around 28k for a year around that timeframe. Assuming we add an extra year to the max approval date, then total perm received is around 28k for a year. Put a ratio of around 0.5 on EB2 and multiply by around 2.2 for dependents, then we end at around 30k possible new 485 applications. However we'll be missing some non-PERM EB2 like NIW but I think that's a small number. Essentially let's assume USCIS has a safe buffer number which they always like to have, a pre-adjudicated ready number of files they like to have in their shelves come July of every year. If that's 25k-30k, they may move by around 10 months beyond mar/apr 2007, around Jan 2008. My bet is they have become wiser in terms of understanding that they can't expect to do background checks and approve tens of thousands of 485 applications in 3 months. That's not happening, so they will have to open up beyond Jul 2007 sometime in the next 12 months. When and by how much is the only question. My expectation is by Sep 2011 and to Mar/Apr 2008.

tanu_75,
I agree we all look at our own PD while talking about predictions! Let's put that aside for a moment.

First, Until after July 2007 Fiasco i don't think USCIS had concept of buffering applications for retrogressed countries and i am not sure even today if they have this(buffer) concept in mind.
Second, i don't think USCIS is going to draw conclusions for future year demand/spillover based on current year.
Third, Starting mid 2009 we started seeing move visibility with USCIS processing, data availability and coordination with DOS, so not very many surprises since then!

As far as "controlled" movement, we have seen this with India - F2A last year and i believe they did it based on data available(I130) on hand and i would assume they can do the same with EB!

Since we are all in agreement (more or less) that the remaining SOFAD will only suffice to clear pending EB2I&C cases until August 2007 (not counting PWMBs), USCIS may not see a need to fill their shelves until end of Q2 next year!

Let's hope they will throw their version of prediction for FY 2011 in July 2011 VB.

[suninphx]

Thanks, good to know that. I'm looking out for post July 2007 dates given that my PD is in 2008, so while we are discussing which 2007 dates we get to, I'm more interested in the meaning of 'controlled', since mar/apr 2007 is pretty much a given.

COntrolled as in moving dates for 6-9 months for building future demand against making it current all the way.

[Spectator]

Q, Teddy, Veni,

As promised, I have posted something about sources of information in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?66-Significant-Sources-of-Data-for-use-in-Calculations

It doesn't feel complete as yet.

Please feel free to add anything I have forgotten at the bottom. I will integrate it into a common style. In the same vein, please add any additions or changes to the current explanations at the bottom and I will do likewise. The order of sources may not be correct - fell free to comment on that as well.

[veni001]

Q, Teddy, Veni,

As promised, I have posted something about sources of information in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?66-Significant-Sources-of-Data-for-use-in-Calculations

It doesn't feel complete as yet.

Please feel free to add anything I have forgotten at the bottom. I will integrate it into a common style. In the same vein, please add any additions or changes to the current explanations at the bottom and I will do likewise. The order of sources may not be correct - fell free to comment on that as well.

Spec,
Looks good, you may want to include Monthly Visa Bulletin link (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html) and Pending Employment-Based I-485 Reports (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) to the list.

[ssvp22]

COntrolled as in moving dates for 6-9 months for building future demand against making it current all the way.
Controlled might be more like 1-2 months or at max 3 months.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Looks good, you may want to include Monthly Visa Bulletin link (http://travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1360.html) and Pending Employment-Based I-485 Reports (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.eb1d4c2a3e5b9ac89243c6a7543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=16551543455e5210VgnVCM100000082ca60a RCRD) to the list.
Veni,

Thanks.

How the hell did I miss those!!

No wonder it felt incomplete.

[bieber]

tanu_75

is your pd in 1st quarter of calendar 2008?

[qesehmk]

Spec

Thank you. Pretty good list. I can't think of anything for now to add.

I would list the sources in a way it is useful for readers of our site to comprehend better.

So one way could be to list all sources to figure out what's happening with various stages of GC.

Labor
140
485/CP

I would put various sources under these headings.

Secondly I would also add one more stage "Analysis". So those who are interested in analyzing further... that's where I would put things like TRACKITT or Historical Data etc.

And then I would add one more section (may be called "Other Immigration Resources" where I would list other sites such as Murthy , IV and all other sources where there is good discussion and people can go for advice. )



Q, Teddy, Veni,

As promised, I have posted something about sources of information in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?66-Significant-Sources-of-Data-for-use-in-Calculations

It doesn't feel complete as yet.

Please feel free to add anything I have forgotten at the bottom. I will integrate it into a common style. In the same vein, please add any additions or changes to the current explanations at the bottom and I will do likewise. The order of sources may not be correct - fell free to comment on that as well.

[TeddyKoochu]

Spec firstly sincerest thanks for your hard work and amazing compilation. You might like to add a link for the demand data as well. Overall the compilation looks amazing very comprehensive and complete.

[veni001]

Veni,

Thanks.

How the hell did I miss those!!

No wonder it felt incomplete.

Spec,
Don't worry, missing sth happens with almost all of us.:)

[srini1976]

Hi Q,
Any updates from your source on the EB2(I) movement for July VB?

[Spectator]

Spec firstly sincerest thanks for your hard work and amazing compilation. You might like to add a link for the demand data as well. Overall the compilation looks amazing very comprehensive and complete.Teddy,

I thought I had. I'll check.

PS I thought item 4 covered it. I'll add DOS in front of it to make it clearer.

Do you mean something else?

[03May07]

Will the 100th page of this thread bring all of us The good news :) ?

Spec, thanks for adding the sources!

[tanu_75]

tanu_75,
I agree we all look at our own PD while talking about predictions! Let's put that aside for a moment.

First, Until after July 2007 Fiasco i don't think USCIS had concept of buffering applications for retrogressed countries and i am not sure even today if they have this(buffer) concept in mind.
Second, i don't think USCIS is going to draw conclusions for future year demand/spillover based on current year.
Third, Starting mid 2009 we started seeing move visibility with USCIS processing, data availability and coordination with DOS, so not very many surprises since then!

As far as "controlled" movement, we have seen this with India - F2A last year and i believe they did it based on data available(I130) on hand and i would assume they can do the same with EB!

Since we are all in agreement (more or less) that the remaining SOFAD will only suffice to clear pending EB2I&C cases until August 2007 (not counting PWMBs), USCIS may not see a need to fill their shelves until end of Q2 next year!

Let's hope they will throw their version of prediction for FY 2011 in July 2011 VB.

Thanks veni. Its hard to keep this purely academic but will try :) Very good insight. Can you expand on the family vb movement. I looked at the vb's from jun 2010 to jan 2011 and noticed a lot of movement in f2a till dec followed by retrogression of 2 years. Are you referring to this and any idea on how much movement was made relative to i130?

[ssvp22]

Q any update from your secret source, like last month. Its pretty hard to wait till Friday when every moment on the job sucks.

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,

I thought I had. I'll check.

PS I thought item 4 covered it. I'll add DOS in front of it to make it clearer.

Do you mean something else?

Spec Thanks for changing the description I see it now.

[qesehmk]

guys .. sorry no update yet. Be assured will post as soon as I hear something.

[ChampU]

guys .. sorry no update yet. Be assured will post as soon as I hear something.

I will be keeping an eye on Qs posts as eagerly as some conservative republicans are waiting for Sarah Palin to announce her candidacy..

[bieber]

I will be keeping an eye on Qs posts as eagerly as some conservative republicans are waiting for Sarah Palin to announce her candidacy..
dems are more interested in Palin's ticket than Reps, Since Obama needs some push to get elected for 2nd time Palin may be their best opposition

[ChampU]

dems are more interested in Palin's ticket than Reps, Since Obama needs some push to get elected for 2nd time Palin may be their best opposition

Yep! the DNC, late night comedians/SNL are eagerly waiting for her to run for the office.. the most hillarious ticket would be a Palin/Gingrich ticket.. a loose cannon and a loose character.. :o

[qesehmk]

Are you sure? How about Palin/Trump ticket!!!!


Yep! the DNC, late night comedians/SNL are eagerly waiting for her to run for the office.. the most hillarious ticket would be a Palin/Gingrich ticket.. a loose cannon and a loose character.. :o

[mpurna77]

As Veni told
"Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?"

In that case if USCIS/DOS want to utilize 18K at once, in the July VB we gonna see EB2I/C - APR 2007 (6months) last year it is 8 months?

[ChampU]

Are you sure? How about Palin/Trump ticket!!!!

Ohh boy.. Palin/Trump ticket would provide enough funny material for the media to last 2 presidential election cycles..But it is as likely to happen as the DoS making all EB categories "C" because:

A. The Donald and his supersized ego would refuse to play second fiddle to her highness..
B. My experience with watching reality shows tells me that when two stars collide there can never be peace.
C. Both the "Bachelor" and the "Bachelorette" are experiencing declining popularity..

[TeddyKoochu]

As Veni told
"Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?"

In that case if USCIS/DOS want to utilize 18K at once, in the July VB we gonna see EB2I/C - APR 2007 (6months) last year it is 8 months?

Let me try to clear some of the confusion.
- ~ 24K additional spillover in the last quarter will clear almost the entire backlog - pwmb. Potentially this can bring the dates very close to 01-Aug-2007.
- Everyone has slightly different perception of how much SOFAD we may see in the last quarter but it is mostly less than 24K. It really varies from 16-24K. Based on that the dates may stabilize between 01-Mar-2007 to 01-Aug-2007.A realistic date may probably be 15-APR-2007.
- If last year is a precedent then all the spillover happened only in the last quarter. This year atleast 9k from the 12K EB1 spillover promised at the time of the May bulletin has been applied. In my opinion we should not attribute any percentages to what will be applied when it is entirely discretionary.
- Coming to the 8k what is being hypothesized is that if we have to see 24K spillover in the last quarter it will either be even 8K in the 3 bulletins or higher in the Jul and Aug bulletins. So if the dates have to reach 01-Aug-2007 we should have atleast 8k movement in the Jul bulletin meaning dates advancing to atleast 01-Feb-2007 to keep the hopes alive.

[pch053]

Teddy,
Thanks for the very detailed explanation. During the previous year, most of the movement happened in July and Aug bulletins and the dates merely moved 2 months in the Sep bulletin. Not saying that the trend will be exactly same this year, but for the dates to move past July'07 in the Sep'11, we surely need the dates to be at least around Feb'07 in the July bulletin. Probably, the July bulletin will give us an idea on what to expect by the end of this year. Also, I see around 10K pending EB1 and ~9K pending EB2-ROW applications (with a sizable # of cases pending from 2010) in the last I485 demand data. Will that have any effect on EB2I+C movement?

Thanks!

[ChampU]

Is there a correlation between the PD movements in End of Fiscal Year Visa Bulletins and the data published in the USCIS visa bulletin inventory? The reason I ask this, is that it could answer questions about how much does the DoS relies on the data published by the USCIS.

The demand data is released prior to the VB and this data comes from the USCIS (correct me if I am wrong). But this year, the scenario is different as the USCIS does not have any established numbers.If there is any analysis/data about the correlation between EOY movements and inventory stats, could you please let me know?

[soggadu]

hi all... quick question... i read some where that most of the approvals were done in first two weeks of the month and then the speed of approvals dies down... is this correct historically for any category?

[qesehmk]

Thats quite logical since the ability to allocate visa will exhaust itself quite quickly when the cases are preadj. However there is not a whole lot of historicaly precedent to having tons of preadj cases. To difficult to say whether this is correct historically.

For last few months certainly that seems to be teh case.


hi all... quick question... i read some where that most of the approvals were done in first two weeks of the month and then the speed of approvals dies down... is this correct historically for any category?

[Spectator]

The demand data is released prior to the VB and this data comes from the USCIS (correct me if I am wrong).
ChampU,

The Demand Data is published by DOS not USCIS.

It contains "documentarily qualified" applicants that DOS is aware of. It therefore contains CP cases, but not necessarily all the cases reported in the USCIS Inventory.

Neither is it it absolutely clear at which point CP cases themselves are considered qualified to be included in the report - it is not spelt out specifically. It must be quite late in the process, since the description says they are reported at consular posts, rather than from the NVC (possibly after the interview date has been assigned by NVC and the paperwork shipped to the consulate).

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy,
Thanks for the very detailed explanation. During the previous year, most of the movement happened in July and Aug bulletins and the dates merely moved 2 months in the Sep bulletin. Not saying that the trend will be exactly same this year, but for the dates to move past July'07 in the Sep'11, we surely need the dates to be at least around Feb'07 in the July bulletin. Probably, the July bulletin will give us an idea on what to expect by the end of this year. Also, I see around 10K pending EB1 and ~9K pending EB2-ROW applications (with a sizable # of cases pending from 2010) in the last I485 demand data. Will that have any effect on EB2I+C movement?

Thanks!

Last year the movement was 7+7+6 from the Jul+Aug+Sep bulletins. Unfortunately the Jul & Aug bulletins were through leaner stretches and for the Jul bulletin China was not a factor, in September the EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals were also higher seems like a very sincere attempt was made to approve any of those cases as well. You are correct in identifying that there is a large stockpile of Eb2 ROW and EB1 Applications and if USCIS decides to concentrate on them in the last quarter it will reduce our SOFAD numbers. Another point to note is that most of these applications are concentrated in the months prior to the last 4-5 months this could be a) Concurrent filings coupled with slow I140 approvals b) Stricter scrutiny in general. Additionally these numbers are a little higher this time than the earlier inevntories. I hope nothing nothing unusual happens on these and we are able to get our SOFAD. For us being able to reach the 01-Aug-2007 mark the Jul bulletin is defintely a very critical litmus test we have to reach Feb 2007 in the bulletin otherwise there is virtually no chance. Good luck to all for the Jul VB. The approvals rate has been a good for the June VB this augurs well for us.

[soggadu]

Thats quite logical since the ability to allocate visa will exhaust itself quite quickly when the cases are preadj. However there is not a whole lot of historicaly precedent to having tons of preadj cases. To difficult to say whether this is correct historically.

For last few months certainly that seems to be teh case.

In that case i see a lot more spilover from EB2 ROWMP and EB1 than we are predicting/projecting from July... I say this keeping in mind that Eb2 I/C cases will take priority in the last quarter not because of any other reason but because they are the most retrogressed... This is good for this year but bad for next year spilover... any comments??

[bieber]

Is there a correlation between the PD movements in End of Fiscal Year Visa Bulletins and the data published in the USCIS visa bulletin inventory? The reason I ask this, is that it could answer questions about how much does the DoS relies on the data published by the USCIS.

The demand data is released prior to the VB and this data comes from the USCIS (correct me if I am wrong). But this year, the scenario is different as the USCIS does not have any established numbers.If there is any analysis/data about the correlation between EOY movements and inventory stats, could you please let me know?
Technically, if demand data shows zero DOS should make the date current. If DOS moves dates as per demand data till september, there will be a time in fy2012 when demand goes to zero and if it is in Q3/Q4 then CIS will not have sufficient time to process new 485s and visa numbers will either go waste or will be used by EB3.
so, if you are waiting to file 485, what DOS does is kind of irrelevant as long as there is spillover we will get a chance sometime in next fy.

[neospeed]

Teddy,
Thanks for the very detailed explanation. During the previous year, most of the movement happened in July and Aug bulletins and the dates merely moved 2 months in the Sep bulletin. Not saying that the trend will be exactly same this year, but for the dates to move past July'07 in the Sep'11, we surely need the dates to be at least around Feb'07 in the July bulletin. Probably, the July bulletin will give us an idea on what to expect by the end of this year. Also, I see around 10K pending EB1 and ~9K pending EB2-ROW applications (with a sizable # of cases pending from 2010) in the last I485 demand data. Will that have any effect on EB2I+C movement?

Thanks!

In regard to pending Eb1 10k, may be most of the cases stuck for additional review from long time and piled up for sometime etc. Showing up in the inventory.

[qesehmk]

I agree that EB2IC will be first in line for SPILLOVER/SOFAD. However the rest I didnt understand. Can you please explain. I didn't really understand the rationale.

p.s. - As per your original question..... as I said, preadj exists only for retrogressed countries and so we are seeing this phenomenon of heavy first 2 weeks followed by a trickle.


In that case i see a lot more spilover from EB2 ROWMP and EB1 than we are predicting/projecting from July... I say this keeping in mind that Eb2 I/C cases will take priority in the last quarter not because of any other reason but because they are the most retrogressed... This is good for this year but bad for next year spilover... any comments??

[soggadu]

I agree that EB2IC will be first in line for SPILLOVER/SOFAD. However the rest I didnt understand. Can you please explain. I didn't really understand the rationale.

p.s. - As per your original question..... as I said, preadj exists only for retrogressed countries and so we are seeing this phenomenon of heavy first 2 weeks followed by a trickle.

What i meant is that in the last quarter, most of the cases that would get worked on are Eb2 I/C as they are most retrogressed so more time allocated to free the back log...in due process, there will be pending( not every application but considerable number ) inventory for Eb1 and Eb2 row...

[qesehmk]

No. I wouldn't worry about that. This shouldn't have any effect on next years EB1 and EB2 ROW. If they have eligible EB1 / EB2 ROW this year they will assign visa to them first because their dates are current.


What i meant is that in the last quarter, most of the cases that would get worked on are Eb2 I/C as they are most retrogressed so more time allocated to free the back log...in due process, there will be pending( not every application but considerable number ) inventory for Eb1 and Eb2 row...

[pch053]

Last year the movement was 7+7+6 from the Jul+Aug+Sep bulletins. Unfortunately the Jul & Aug bulletins were through leaner stretches and for the Jul bulletin China was not a factor, in September the EB2 ROW and EB1 approvals were also higher seems like a very sincere attempt was made to approve any of those cases as well. You are correct in identifying that there is a large stockpile of Eb2 ROW and EB1 Applications and if USCIS decides to concentrate on them in the last quarter it will reduce our SOFAD numbers. Another point to note is that most of these applications are concentrated in the months prior to the last 4-5 months this could be a) Concurrent filings coupled with slow I140 approvals b) Stricter scrutiny in general. Additionally these numbers are a little higher this time than the earlier inevntories. I hope nothing nothing unusual happens on these and we are able to get our SOFAD. For us being able to reach the 01-Aug-2007 mark the Jul bulletin is defintely a very critical litmus test we have to reach Feb 2007 in the bulletin otherwise there is virtually no chance. Good luck to all for the Jul VB. The approvals rate has been a good for the June VB this augurs well for us.

I agree with all the explanation but just a minor point. Didn't the visa dates move by ~2 months from Aug - Sep'10 bulletin? I see that EB2-I visa date was 1st March'06 in Aug'10 and 8th May'06 in Sep'10. The reason I was checking into this is to gauge whether USCIS moves the dates for most of the spillovers in the 1st 2 bulletins of the last quarter itself or not.

Thanks!

[ChampU]

I agree with all the explanation but just a minor point. Didn't the visa dates move by ~2 months from Aug - Sep'10 bulletin? I see that EB2-I visa date was 1st March'06 in Aug'10 and 8th May'06 in Sep'10. The reason I was checking into this is to gauge whether USCIS moves the dates for most of the spillovers in the 1st 2 bulletins of the last quarter itself or not.

Thanks!

If that trend continues, we can expect the bulk of the spillover to be alloted in July and August VB. What happens in September VB would be anyone's guess.. in the range Retrogression -No movement - C..

[ChampU]

ChampU,

The Demand Data is published by DOS not USCIS.

It contains "documentarily qualified" applicants that DOS is aware of. It therefore contains CP cases, but not necessarily all the cases reported in the USCIS Inventory.

Neither is it it absolutely clear at which point CP cases themselves are considered qualified to be included in the report - it is not spelt out specifically. It must be quite late in the process, since the description says they are reported at consular posts, rather than from the NVC (possibly after the interview date has been assigned by NVC and the paperwork shipped to the consulate).

Thanks Spec!
If the visa number allocation and PD movement is entirely driven by the DoS and the USCIS acts as the funnel for the immigration process, what happens when the established inventory at the USCIS is depleted? And as a matter of policy, what would happen if this situation arises in Q1/Q2 of 2012?

[TeddyKoochu]

I agree with all the explanation but just a minor point. Didn't the visa dates move by ~2 months from Aug - Sep'10 bulletin? I see that EB2-I visa date was 1st March'06 in Aug'10 and 8th May'06 in Sep'10. The reason I was checking into this is to gauge whether USCIS moves the dates for most of the spillovers in the 1st 2 bulletins of the last quarter itself or not.

Thanks!

You are correct that the movement in the Sep bulletin was 2 months and a week but it had ~ 6K of EB I/C Traffic, so the movement in terms of numbers was not too bad we were passing through a dense zone.

[ChampU]

so, if you are waiting to file 485, what DOS does is kind of irrelevant as long as there is spillover we will get a chance sometime in next fy.

Yes, I am waiting to file 485. With a PD of 02/2008, I might need a mid-sized spillover to reach that goal.
If you notice, most of my questions/comments/queries are more about what happen in FY 2012 than what would happen in July.
As someone had pointed out, in this process all our thoughts/worries and hopes, revolve around our PDs.

[skpanda]

There is no precedent for this kind of situation. Many people including me are waiting for what steps DOS/USCIS will take to build the pipeline once their Demand Data shows '0' for EB2IC. A possible distinct precedent is that last year for a family based category they advanced the dates by 2 years (DID NOT MAKE IT CURRENT) and then retrogessed.

Many theories/possibilities are floating around:

1. DOS will make the dates current to build the pipeline.
2. DOS will follow the family example from last year. Advance by 1+ years to have enough applications for FY 2012. Retrogess in Q1 FY 2012.
3. DOS will advance dates in a controlled manner (2/3 months during Q1/Q2 FY2012) and once they enough applications will retrogess.

We will only know in future which option they will go with. Option 1 above may be highly unlikely since DOS/USCIS may not want to repeat the July 2007 fiasco.

Good Luck!
S




Thanks Spec!
If the visa number allocation and PD movement is entirely driven by the DoS and the USCIS acts as the funnel for the immigration process, what happens when the established inventory at the USCIS is depleted? And as a matter of policy, what would happen if this situation arises in Q1/Q2 of 2012?

[qesehmk]

Nice summary SKpanda. I think #2 is more likely. #1 is next & #3 is least likely.

The reason being USCIS and DOS do not have such fine operations to move dates in a fine manner such as #3. So that leaves #1 & #2. #1 is a bit extreme. So #2 is more likely.


There is no precedent for this kind of situation. Many people including me are waiting for what steps DOS/USCIS will take to build the pipeline once their Demand Data shows '0' for EB2IC. A possible distinct precedent is that last year for a family based category they advanced the dates by 2 years (DID NOT MAKE IT CURRENT) and then retrogessed.

Many theories/possibilities are floating around:

1. DOS will make the dates current to build the pipeline.
2. DOS will follow the family example from last year. Advance by 1+ years to have enough applications for FY 2012. Retrogess in Q1 FY 2012.
3. DOS will advance dates in a controlled manner (2/3 months during Q1/Q2 FY2012) and once they enough applications will retrogess.

We will only know in future which option they will go with. Option 1 above may be highly unlikely since DOS/USCIS may not want to repeat the July 2007 fiasco.

Good Luck!
S

[veni001]

Thanks veni. Its hard to keep this purely academic but will try :) Very good insight. Can you expand on the family vb movement. I looked at the vb's from jun 2010 to jan 2011 and noticed a lot of movement in f2a till dec followed by retrogression of 2 years. Are you referring to this and any idea on how much movement was made relative to i130?

tanu_75,
For FB we do not have data availability by country(like PERM for EB). But USCIS dashboard data shows that USCIS processed about half a million i130 applications between April 2009 and April 2010, and the new receipts are kind of flat during the same period. So F2A PD for most of the countries moved from APR 2006 in March 2010 Bulletin to Jan 2010 by September 2010 bulletin. DOS has provided the following explanation for this rapid movement over 6-7 month period.

"Family-sponsored: During the past fifteen months, the level of demand for numbers in the Family-sponsored preference categories has been very low. As a result, the cut-off dates for most Family preference categories have been advancing at a very rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limits may be fully utilized. If demand for numbers should begin to materialize cut-off date movements may begin to slow or stop."

Coming back to EB cases, we know that USCIS got enough demand for FY 2010, and if EB2I&C PD move any where closer to August 2007, they will get an additional 6-7k PWMB.

USCIS may not be able to estimate FY 2012 demand for all EB categories until end of Q2 for 2012. And also beginning FY 2012 (Oct 2011) they are going to have country/quarterly limitations, in-addition porting cases will be added to pending EB2I&C demand.

So technically there is no need for USCIS to suggest/request/recommend DOS to push EB2I&C dates beyond August 2007 for this year!

[qesehmk]

veni

I agree that technically there may not be a need to actually move dates beyond Aug 2007. I think its going to be very close.

However as per dates movement goes my understanding is that USCIS never really asks or even coordinates with DoS in terms of dates movement. Its solely DoS decision. Right?



tanu_75,
For FB we do not have data availability by country(like PERM for EB). But USCIS dashboard data shows that USCIS processed about half a million i130 applications between April 2009 and April 2010, and the new receipts are kind of flat during the same period. So F2A PD for most of the countries moved from APR 2006 in March 2010 Bulletin to Jan 2010 by September 2010 bulletin. DOS has provided the following explanation for this rapid movement over 6-7 month period.

"Family-sponsored: During the past fifteen months, the level of demand for numbers in the Family-sponsored preference categories has been very low. As a result, the cut-off dates for most Family preference categories have been advancing at a very rapid pace, in an attempt to generate demand so that the annual numerical limits may be fully utilized. If demand for numbers should begin to materialize cut-off date movements may begin to slow or stop."

Coming back to EB cases, we know that USCIS got enough demand for FY 2010, and if EB2I&C PD move any where closer to August 2007, they will get an additional 6-7k PWMB.

USCIS may not be able to estimate FY 2012 demand for all EB categories until end of Q2 for 2012. And also beginning FY 2012 (Oct 2011) they are going to have country/quarterly limitations, in-addition porting cases will be added to pending EB2I&C demand.

So technically there is no need for USCIS to suggest/request/recommend DOS to push EB2I&C dates beyond August 2007 for this year!

[veni001]

veni

I agree that technically there may not be a need to actually move dates beyond Aug 2007. I think its going to be very close.

However as per dates movement goes my understanding is that USCIS never really asks or even coordinates with DoS in terms of dates movement. Its solely DoS decision. Right?

Q,
Which is true prior to July 2007 fiasco, but not any more!

Please check this out....

Collaboration with DOS (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=71f24d6c52c99110VgnVCM1000004718190aRCR D&vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD)

"USCIS works with DOS more closely than ever to exchange information that is critical for managing visa allocation and for targeting future production efforts. We are now in weekly contact with the Chief of DOS’s Visa Unit to communicate current inventories per country and preference class to better determine each month’s visa bulletin. DOS provides regular updates to USCIS on past visa number usage and remaining numeric allocations per country and preference class. DOS also shares its forecast for priority date movement in upcoming visa bulletins so that USCIS can adjust production in advance for maximum visa number usage.

USCIS and DOS are also working together on a plan to forward all approved family-based visa petitions to DOS, including those where the petitioner indicates the beneficiary will apply for adjustment of status in the United States. This will enhance the ability of DOS to accurately forecast demand for visa numbers and more precisely manage the establishment of priority dates to meter the intake of applications for adjustment of status to match visa availability."

[tanu_75]

tanu_75,
For FB we do not have data availability by country(like PERM for EB). But USCIS dashboard data shows that USCIS processed about half a million i130 applications between April 2009 and April 2010, and the new receipts are kind of flat during the same period. So F2A PD for most of the countries moved from APR 2006 in March 2010 Bulletin to Jan 2010 by September 2010 bulletin. DOS has provided the following explanation for this rapid movement over 6-7 month period.


So they have shown that they won't make it current and would rather throttle. I think that will be the case going forward.


Coming back to EB cases, we know that USCIS got enough demand for FY 2010, and if EB2I&C PD move any where closer to August 2007, they will get an additional 6-7k PWMB.



They have enough, but depending on how many visas come through they may have just about enough. If that's the case, there may be a tendency to err on the safe side and push the dates out further. Depends on how much spillover happens I think.




veni

I agree that technically there may not be a need to actually move dates beyond Aug 2007. I think its going to be very close.

However as per dates movement goes my understanding is that USCIS never really asks or even coordinates with DoS in terms of dates movement. Its solely DoS decision. Right?

Yes, I think it could be a close call. If they decide to move beyond July 2007 then I think it'll be around Mar/Apr 2008 (I hope), but they could decide to end around Jul 2007. Quite close to call this and they may just choose to wait till next year to open the floodgates (screwing us post Jul 2007ers) but that's a recipe to waste visas and also very irresponsible to do when the backlog is so high.

[veni001]

So they have shown that they won't make it current and would rather throttle. I think that will be the case going forward.



They have enough, but depending on how many visas come through they may have just about enough. If that's the case, there may be a tendency to err on the safe side and push the dates out further. Depends on how much spillover happens I think.


Yes, I think it could be a close call. If they decide to move beyond July 2007 then I think it'll be around Mar/Apr 2008 (I hope), but they could decide to end around Jul 2007. Quite close to call this and they may just choose to wait till next year to open the floodgates (screwing us post Jul 2007ers) but that's a recipe to waste visas and also very irresponsible to do when the backlog is so high.

tanu_75,
You are correct, how much more SOFAD is the key for PD movement for Jul-Aug-Sept. AS long as EB2I&C PD moves to June/July 2007 the chances of VISA wastage is minimal. Also as Spec & others pointed some of the OCT approvals are possibly from prior year numbers, so it is safe to assume USCIS may not waste VISAS this year or in the coming years.

[veni001]

So they have shown that they won't make it current and would rather throttle. I think that will be the case going forward.



They have enough, but depending on how many visas come through they may have just about enough. If that's the case, there may be a tendency to err on the safe side and push the dates out further. Depends on how much spillover happens I think.


Yes, I think it could be a close call. If they decide to move beyond July 2007 then I think it'll be around Mar/Apr 2008 (I hope), but they could decide to end around Jul 2007. Quite close to call this and they may just choose to wait till next year to open the floodgates (screwing us post Jul 2007ers) but that's a recipe to waste visas and also very irresponsible to do when the backlog is so high.

tanu_75,
You are correct, how much more SOFAD is the key for PD movement for Jul-Aug-Sept. AS long as EB2I&C PD moves to June/July 2007 the chances of VISA wastage is minimal. Also as Spec & others pointed some of the OCTOBER approvals are possibly from prior year numbers, so it is safe to assume USCIS may not waste VISAS this year or in the coming years.

[veni001]

Will the 100th page of this thread bring all of us The good news :) ?

Spec, thanks for adding the sources!

03May07,
We may cross 100 pages before July 2011 VB release! :)

[nuvikas]

We are now predicting when will we cross 100th page :) LOL

[veni001]

We are now predicting when will we cross 100th page :) LOL

:o About this time last year i remember predicting for 200th page for EB2 prediction thread on IV:o

[bieber]

Q, other moderators

would you consider archiving the thread after 100 pages and opening a new part2 thread?

[qesehmk]

I agree that we have to do it sometime & may be soon. Not sure when. The performance of the site seems good. May be we could spawn another thread when it deteriorates?


Q, other moderators

would you consider archiving the thread after 100 pages and opening a new part2 thread?

[grnwtg]

03May07,
We may cross 100 pages before July 2011 VB release! :)

OK let us request DOS to make everybody current on the eve of 100th Page :) ...

[qesehmk]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

[srini1976]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

Thanks to Q and Q's source. BTW did he tell you when the July VB will be released?

[shaumack]

Thanks Q. Great News. Time to make Doctor's appointment. LOL


Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

[Spectator]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!
Q,

Thanks for the update.

The VB moved 3 and a half months in the June VB. If it moved the same in the July VB (as happy) then it would move to 01FEB07 (that would use around 8.5k extra visas).

If people will be "happier", that suggests a bigger movement than even that.

Since we don't know the % split for July/August/September it doesn't necessarily tell us where the year will end, but it is very encouraging.

[mpurna77]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!


Thank you 'Q'. Great News.. I will be current then :-)

[bieber]

Q, great news

Hope your friend will get gc soon and keep giving us good news :)

[srinivasj]

if it croesses Jan 07..I will be current too..Great news Q...thanks..we will pray for your source too...

[bieber]

not to read toomuch in between lines, but happier>happy so definitely more than 3.5 months movement can be expected

[mpurna77]

In Trackitt we didn't see any approvals for last two days. what's going on. is TSC/NSC stopped approving...

[gcwait2007]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

This news is very much fit for 100th page. :) Keeping fingers crossed since PD is very close

[skpanda]

This is good news... I will not be current (PD in 2010) but I am happy for guys who will be current and pray that you get your GC (and freedom) very soon!!

Good Luck!!

[mpurna77]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

Just wondering no one posted this on TRACKITT. though we are using that data too much :-). is there any reason not to post there. LOL

[pravara]

Just wondering no one posted this on TRACKITT. though we are using that data too much :-). is there any reason not to post there. LOL

-->There is nothing wrong on keeping an open secret :) Let them find it themselves. More power to Q forum :)

[qesehmk]

I think the bulletin should come out on Friday. If not next Wednesday.

If the date moves to even Feb 2007, that a strong indication that eventually the date will at least move upto May 2007 - may be even Aug 2007.

[gccool]

Thank you so much Q for the Great news.
Will pray for your friend to get his GC soon.
Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

[ssvp22]

Thank you for the update Q. I guess you will be current.

[qesehmk]

Hey guys ... we believe in open collaborative process. Just like we provide information from other forums and credit them, it would be perfectly alright to talk about our information and quote it somewhere.



Just wondering no one posted this on TRACKITT. though we are using that data too much :-). is there any reason not to post there. LOL


-->There is nothing wrong on keeping an open secret :) Let them find it themselves. More power to Q forum :)

[visagcinfo]

We will cross 100th page before July VB comes out! Everybody will be hitting Mumbai consulate page tomorrow night.
Might be a good idea to start a fresh thread for predictions part-2 once July VB comes out :-)
Just stretch the prediction to end of October'2007 by September VB for my sake.. just kidding.. mine is in Oct'07.
skpanda mentioned GC = Freedom! so true.

[pravara]

Hey guys ... we believe in open collaborative process. Just like we provide information from other forums and credit them, it would be perfectly alright to talk about our information and quote it somewhere.

-->I agree too. I was only being TIC about it.

However, we need to consider the fact that your source shouldn't lose his access to CO because of some anonymous forum talk. I might be making too much out of this too.

Best
-P

[TeddyKoochu]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

Q thanks for posting, Iam really hoping that the dates move to Feb 2007 or further this has greatly increased the hopes. Good luck to everyone.


I think the bulletin should come out on Friday. If not next Wednesday.

If the date moves to even Feb 2007, that a strong indication that eventually the date will at least move upto May 2007 - may be even Aug 2007.

I know May 2007 is realistic but personally Iam praying its Aug 2007 so that the word PWMB can be history and all PWMB's are atleast able to file for 485 this year.

[ChampU]

I think the bulletin should come out on Friday. If not next Wednesday.

If the date moves to even Feb 2007, that a strong indication that eventually the date will at least move upto May 2007 - may be even Aug 2007.

Awesome!!! Thanks a lot Q!! God bless you and your source!!

[soggadu]

Q, Teddy, Veni,

As promised, I have posted something about sources of information in the FACTS & DATA section. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?66-Significant-Sources-of-Data-for-use-in-Calculations

It doesn't feel complete as yet.

Please feel free to add anything I have forgotten at the bottom. I will integrate it into a common style. In the same vein, please add any additions or changes to the current explanations at the bottom and I will do likewise. The order of sources may not be correct - fell free to comment on that as well.

You are still missing one source ;-)

[soggadu]

Awesome!!! Thanks a lot Q!! God bless you and your source!!

i second that... may your source get GC asap... and you get current in July...all the best....

[qesehmk]

Teddy

You became GC-pandit my friend!

p.s. But of course all of us know you are a GURU!



Q thanks for posting, Iam really hoping that the dates move to Feb 2007 or further this has greatly increased the hopes. Good luck to everyone.



I know May 2007 is realistic but personally Iam praying its Aug 2007 so that the word PWMB can be history and all PWMB's are atleast able to file for 485 this year.

[ssvp22]

Everyone who gets a GC is a GC guru since that's what it takes these days :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Teddy

You became GC-pandit my friend!

p.s. But of course all of us know you are a GURU!

Q thanks for your very kind words. I noticed the change after crossing 200 posts. Its really very nice of you and especially Veni & Spec & all others enriching this forum Iam a very small person / contributor here. Thanks again for today’s news words cannot really express the happiness / gratitude, I have very high hopes now for the VB. If the bulletin crosses Feb. 2007 it will be great in my opinion, I hope it goes into March so that you get it this month itself.

[zenmaster]

I think cut off will move somewhere between March - May 2007.

[cbpds1]

My guess is Apr'08 or May'08

[nishant2200]

My guess is Apr'08 or May'08

I am having similar vibes too, especially after the "Source" information. But sometimes we get colored by our own PD, and we tend to see what we want to see. But still, I can dream for two more days at least, before Friday, I get awakened :)

I hope it's friday, else my entire weekend, I will be tense!

[kd2008]

I think the gurus and pandits on this forum are amazing. Thank you for your service to the community. Q, did your contact ask CO about how the dates might move past July 2007? :p

[qesehmk]

That's so true - we do get colored by our own PD.

As per any movement beyond Aug 2007 ... I don't deny the possibility exists. However I firmly believe any such movement won't be sustainable i.e. will be retrogressed in a couple of months after those people are able to file 485s.

I am having similar vibes too, especially after the "Source" information. But sometimes we get colored by our own PD, and we tend to see what we want to see. But still, I can dream for two more days at least, before Friday, I get awakened :)

I hope it's friday, else my entire weekend, I will be tense!

[anuran]

cdpds1:

Are you saying April/May 2008 for July Bulletin or September Bulletin? Did you mean 2007 ? Of course I do not mind 2008.

By the way, Q deserves a thanks for the info. Per my estimate by Sep, the cutoff should hit August'07. And I believe it is going in that direction.

[chirag.n]

does CO stand for consular officer? is that a pretty high ranking position?

[sha_kus]

All Guru's:

I have been a silent reader of this forum and this is somewhat first post for me. firstly i want to thank you people for all the courage you people have given me finally i bought a house even though my PD is Aug 2008. I have learned from this forum that GC is nothing in front of my happiness and family. Thanks Q's Source for this information. I am happy for everybody who will get current.

Thought :

why are all people saying now also they will not do 2007 fiasco. actually this should not be a 2007 fiasco because in 2007 both Eb2 and 3 became current now they are looking at just eb2 current (no offense to eb3). So this is just half the fiasco. just my thought.

S

[zenmaster]

does CO stand for consular officer? is that a pretty high ranking position?
:D
You are not kidding, right ?
CO is Charles Oppenheim. Chief of VO.

He is like charlie of movie 'Ghulam'... jab charlie bhagta hai na, tab rajdhani bhi usko salute karti hai !!!! :D

[chirag.n]

ok..thanks ravi!

i guess i haven't seen the movie ghulam, but the quote drove home the point pretty well...

so how good is this oppenheim's guys words...do we have any intel on his past actions/words and whether what he says comes true or not?


:D
You are not kidding, right ?
CO is Charles Oppenheim. Chief of VO.

He is like charlie of movie 'Ghulam'... jab charlie bhagta hai na, tab rajdhani bhi usko salute karti hai !!!! :D

[nijor.deha]

We are in 100 page today. Thank you so much to Q,Veni,Teddy and Spec.This forum is giving lot of hope and courage to everyone

[skpanda]

we reached Century with a sixer news from Q!! That is a good sign!!

Few members suggested that we open a new thread and archive this one. I would recommend that we archive this thread in October and start a new thread for FY 2012. This will help people go thru archives in a logical way. Also the header will be very meaningful... giving information on where we started and ended in a FY.

[zenmaster]

we reached Century with a sixer news from Q!! That is a good sign!!

Few members suggested that we open a new thread and archive this one. I would recommend that we archive this thread in October and start a new thread for FY 2012. This will help people go thru archives in a logical way. Also the header will be very meaningful... giving information on where we started and ended and a FY.
I second this suggestion !

[cbpds1]

This is not based off my PD, but many folks with PD =Apr 2008 who applied for Consular Processing have got emails to pay their 485 fees.

hence the prediction of apr 2008


I am having similar vibes too, especially after the "Source" information. But sometimes we get colored by our own PD, and we tend to see what we want to see. But still, I can dream for two more days at least, before Friday, I get awakened :)

I hope it's friday, else my entire weekend, I will be tense!

[skpanda]

Quick Q -

EB2

If we see DOS demand data for June 2011 - Demand is almost 0 for 'ROW'.
However USCIS June 2011 inventory - Invenotry/Demand is 9.5K for ROW.

Does this mean that the 9.5K for ROW in inventory have issues like RFE etc and DOS does not consider them as potential demand in near future?

Anybody knows why we have this discrepancy.

[qesehmk]

Or all those 9.5K are taking them time through USCIS processing machine. Right. There doesn't have to be an issue. Even normal processing takes some time.

Quick Q -

EB2

If we see DOS demand data for June 2011 - Demand is almost 0 for 'ROW'.
However USCIS June 2011 inventory - Invenotry/Demand is 9.5K for ROW.

Does this mean that the 9.5K for ROW in inventory have issues like RFE etc and DOS does not consider them as potential demand in near future?

Anybody knows why we have this discrepancy.

[neospeed]

Quick Q -

EB2

If we see DOS demand data for June 2011 - Demand is almost 0 for 'ROW'.
However USCIS June 2011 inventory - Invenotry/Demand is 9.5K for ROW.

Does this mean that the 9.5K for ROW in inventory have issues like RFE etc and DOS does not consider them as potential demand in near future?

Anybody knows why we have this discrepancy.


January 1, 2011 9,250 20,350 125 29,725

Jan 1st 2011 data from dos. USCIS data is from June 2011.

[skpanda]

Understood... but just wondering that DOS does not consider this as demand (since its possible that 75% of those will be approved some time in future)


Or all those 9.5K are taking them time through USCIS processing machine. Right. There doesn't have to be an issue. Even normal processing takes some time.

[leo07]

Thanks Q for the "Breaking News". You,TeddyK and I need to wait for the "happiest" news, "happier" is ok, but wouldn't take us out of the Q.


Best!

[qesehmk]

Demand is only those applications that are "DOCUMENTARILY QUALIFIED".


Understood... but just wondering that DOS does not consider this as demand (since its possible that 75% of those will be approved some time in future)

[shaumack]

Just read this on Chinese website where they also quote Q's blog. Feb 2007 then it be. :)

"The Indians got similar message with my company attorney. I believe this
information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information. information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information."

[skpanda]

yes... happy/happier/happiest has different meanings for individuals.

For my PD in Dec 2010. For July VB

Happy for me is - Feb/March 2007
Happier for me is - Aug 2007
Happiest - CURRENT :)

Good luck to all and may they get 'happiest' information soon!


Thanks Q for the "Breaking News". You,TeddyK and I need to wait for the "happiest" news, "happier" is ok, but wouldn't take us out of the Q.


Best!

[tanu_75]

Just read this on Chinese website where they also quote Q's blog. Feb 2007 then it be. :)

"The Indians got similar message with my company attorney. I believe this
information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information. information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information."

I love how it says the "Indians", as if its a bunch of Chinese folks in an action movie discussing around a table "Our Indian friends are saying that the dates are going to move". No offence taken by the way, just funny and it is true. :D

If anyone measured the productivity on I/C EB immigrants in the first 10 days of every month, god will they be surprised.

[skpanda]

Thanks for clarifying...


Demand is only those applications that are "DOCUMENTARILY QUALIFIED".

[skpanda]

yeah.. this is so addictive...




If anyone measured the productivity on I/C EB immigrants in the first 10 days of every month, god will they be surprised.

[chirag.n]

its like the united nations...the indians are doing this so lets do that...like bush used to call it...strategery :cool:


I love how it says the "Indians", as if its a bunch of Chinese folks in an action movie discussing around a table "Our Indian friends are saying that the dates are going to move". No offence taken by the way, just funny and it is true. :D

If anyone measured the productivity on I/C EB immigrants in the first 10 days of every month, god will they be surprised.

[cbpds1]

USCIS can help us get rid of this addiction :)


yeah.. this is so addictive...

[leo07]

- One who is waiting for Demand Data so that they can estimate how far it goes by September of this year
- One who thinks could become current this VB and anxiously waiting to see the result.

There could be some intersection between these two sets, depending on where the individual falls on the spectrum :)

[veni001]

Friends,

So finally our source had a discussion with CO in Visa Office.

Here is what CO had to say - "There will be significant movement in July. If people were happy with the June movement, they will be happier with the movement in July."

I guess it means the dates will definitely move past Jan 07.

Good luck everybody! And a BIG thanks to our source! He has asked all of us to "pray" for him since he is current and is expecting a GC anytime now. My best wishes to him!!

Q,
Great news Thanks to you and your Source.

[srinivasj]

lol..i fall into second set..I have been waiting for the bulletin to see if my date could be current for the last 4 years..

- One who is waiting for Demand Data so that they can estimate how far it goes by September of this year
- One who thinks could become current this VB and anxiously waiting to see the result.

There could be some intersection between these two sets, depending on where the individual falls on the spectrum :)

[veni001]

All Guru's:

I have been a silent reader of this forum and this is somewhat first post for me. firstly i want to thank you people for all the courage you people have given me finally i bought a house even though my PD is Aug 2008. I have learned from this forum that GC is nothing in front of my happiness and family. Thanks Q's Source for this information. I am happy for everybody who will get current.

Thought :

why are all people saying now also they will not do 2007 fiasco. actually this should not be a 2007 fiasco because in 2007 both Eb2 and 3 became current now they are looking at just eb2 current (no offense to eb3). So this is just half the fiasco. just my thought.

S

sha_kus,
Post July 2007 Fiasco there are more EB2I&C filings than EB3 ( based on the data sources). Making EB2I&C current could result in any where between 100k-150k new i485 filings!

[veni001]

We are in 100 page today. Thank you so much to Q,Veni,Teddy and Spec.This forum is giving lot of hope and courage to everyone

Want to thank each one of you for participation and contribution.

[pravara]

I love how it says the "Indians", as if its a bunch of Chinese folks in an action movie discussing around a table "Our Indian friends are saying that the dates are going to move". No offence taken by the way, just funny and it is true. :D

If anyone measured the productivity on I/C EB immigrants in the first 10 days of every month, god will they be surprised.

-->I too love Z Injians... :)

[tanu_75]

-->I too love Z Injians... :)

Thank you, come again. ;)

No offence meant to I,C or ROW.

[donvar]

This is not based off my PD, but many folks with PD =Apr 2008 who applied for Consular Processing have got emails to pay their 485 fees.

hence the prediction of apr 2008

As read from previous posts, they send fee request a year in advance.
Early 2008 PD will not reach until 2012 Q3 (that too only if USCIS/DOS wish to create a buffer) . Our Gurus have created so much PWMB demand that it has become difficult for dates to progress into early 2008 until 2012 Q3/Q4.

[leo07]

Thanks for the "Facts & Data". Looks cool.

Did anyone correlate PERM for year (A), 140-Data for a year (A+1) & 485 data for year A+2?( for ROW )
and
PERM for year (A), 140-Data for a year (A+1) ( for IC)

Just out of curiosity, of course there would be people who filed I-140 in each of those years and would have contributed to the economy & statistics alike. ( like me? :))

Some crazy thoughts.

[cbpds1]

As read from previous posts, they send fee request a year in advance.
Early 2008 PD will not reach until 2012 Q3 (that too only if USCIS/DOS wish to create a buffer) . Our Gurus have created so much PWMB demand that it has become difficult for dates to progress into early 2008 until 2012 Q3/Q4.

Did u get a chance to calculate till when the PD will move if we need 20K buffer?......there isnt 20k PWMB folks.....plus they dont calculate the excat date for buffer since they might deny some applications, so chill !!

[veni001]

Demand data used for Monthly EB Cutoff Dates for FY 2010 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates-FY-2011) & FY 2011 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates-FY-2011) (March 2010 - June 2011) is available in FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA) section now.

[qesehmk]

veni,

Thanks. Great job. Just a minor suggestion. When you post anything please also put your conclusion and observations about the data as well. Not all people are savvy enough to understand the data immediately. So it might help everybody if you could put your observations down.

Just a suggestion ....


Demand data used for Monthly EB Cutoff Dates for FY 2010 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?67-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates-FY-2010) & FY 2011 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates-FY-2011) (March 2010 - June 2011) is available in FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA) section.

[vishnu]

guys - i think spillover from eb5 will not be as high as previous years. it will still be about 6000 but not 8-9k. in grand scheme of things, doesn't change our views too much, but wanted to highlight. i read an article how the eb5 program is being used by foreign investors to make investments in the real estate sector (through developers) - so its actually much easier than coming here and trying to start your own business from scratch. in 2010 fiscal, they received 1900 applications but in the first 6 months of fiscal 2011, they've received 1927 applications.

[neospeed]

guys - i think spillover from eb5 will not be as high as previous years. it will still be about 6000 but not 8-9k. in grand scheme of things, doesn't change our views too much, but wanted to highlight. i read an article how the eb5 program is being used by foreign investors to make investments in the real estate sector (through developers) - so its actually much easier than coming here and trying to start your own business from scratch. in 2010 fiscal, they received 1900 applications but in the first 6 months of fiscal 2011, they've received 1927 applications.

what is the source for your info regarding 1900 applications?. I think they just streamlined the eb5 process as it was not attracting too many investors.

[grnwtg]

That's so true - we do get colored by our own PD.

As per any movement beyond Aug 2007 ... I don't deny the possibility exists. However I firmly believe any such movement won't be sustainable i.e. will be retrogressed in a couple of months after those people are able to file 485s.

Even to hear this kind of words is quite encouraging, i am not sure if my priority date will be current for atleast 1 month( March '2008) in this fiscal year, but my confidence level at work/home improves with this sought of posts ;).
1) I am not sure if uscis really does not want to take more than 30-40k application for next year( assuming atmost 10k application will be left till June'07).
2) I pray to God USCIS fall short of funds :) and allow another 50k application to file their EAD's

Any I am certain dates will move to atleast June'2007 in this fiscal year and will be very happy to KICK OUT people in those dates out of our Q ;) .

Does any one have numbers to see how many labors were approved from June'2007 to dec'2007 and also 2008, 2009, 2010?

[vishnu]

Source is Bloomberg News - on my Bloomberg system. Unfortunatey not able to send attachment. But clear than FY 2010 saw 1950 applications and FY 2011 as of April, has seen 1927 applications. Approval ratio seems to be only about 70%.

[veni001]

Source is Bloomberg News - on my Bloomberg system. Unfortunatey not able to send attachment. But clear than FY 2010 saw 1950 applications and FY 2011 as of April, has seen 1927 applications. Approval ratio seems to be only about 70%.

vishnu,
Are we talking about 1927 primary applications or total (including derivatives)?

[suninphx]

2007 - 85k certified ( I did not filter by visa class)
out of which 28k are certified in 2006( i am not sure why they have this data in 2007)
So there are around 58k certified in 2006. And out of which till feb end there are around 15k application
with potential prority date in 2006( I know many eb3 are approved in only month but i am elimination eb3 for this
case).

In 2007 July a lot of people have applied for I485 means their labors have been already certified.
in the data till Jun 29 - there are around 36k labors certified.
from June 29 to dec 07 there are around 20k labors certifed for all countries and all visa classes

I am not sure what is ratio of eb2:eb3 in 2007 but these numbers are quite huge

guys, please refer to FACTS AND DATA section. All calculations are already there.

[mpurna77]

Still demand data not out, so VB will on next Wednesday not on this Friday :-(

[grnwtg]

guys, please refer to FACTS AND DATA section. All calculations are already there.

Sorry for my posts. I have deleted my posts. Any way in the FACTS AND DATA section there is raw data and i am sure some body have discussed already about that data and some people might not like further discussion on prediction, Thanks of letting me know. I will just reply if any one starts post on this.

[qesehmk]

i am sure suninphx only meant to let you know that the data already exists. All of us can alwasy discuss the data and put forth our view.

And no need to be sorry. In fact, thank you for participating.


Sorry for my posts. I have deleted my posts. Any way in the FACTS AND DATA section there is raw data and i am sure some body have discussed already about that data and some people might not like further discussion on prediction, Thanks of letting me know. I will just reply if any one starts post on this.

[vishnu]

sorry Veni - does not say.

[neospeed]

Demand data used for Monthly EB Cutoff Dates for FY 2010 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?67-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates-FY-2010) & FY 2011 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?68-Demand-Data-Used-in-the-Determination-of-Monthly-EB-Preference-Cut-Off-Dates-FY-2011) (March 2010 - June 2011) is available in FACTS AND DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php?15-FACTS-AND-DATA) section.

Thanks Veni. This format gives more clarity, how the backlog is being reduced.
march 2010: eb2 I: 37,450
June 2011 : eb2 I: 20,350

It appears backlog got reduced around 17k to 20k , as far the data is available.

I hope the figure drops to zero by the end of this quarter and they start taking new batch of applications.

[veni001]

sorry Veni - does not say.

vishnu,
Assuming it as the total and 70% approval rate you have mentioned, we are talking about 2k demand for FY2011

[veni001]

Thanks Veni. This format gives more clarity, how the backlog is being reduced.
march 2010: eb2 I: 37,450
June 2011 : eb2 I: 20,350

It appears backlog got reduced around 17k to 20k , as far the data is available.

I hope the figure drops to zero by the end of this quarter and they start taking new batch of applications.

neospeed,
Demand data shows only documentarily qualified applicants from the pending list.

"Documentarily qualified applicants are those individuals who have obtained all documents required to meet the formal visa application requirements as specified by their consular office, and, for those applicants, the consular office has completed the necessary processing procedures."

[mpurna77]

Can we have all FACTS AND DATA in excel or in google docs so we can play with better. Thank you.

[03May07]

Still demand data not out, so VB will on next Wednesday not on this Friday :-(

As we know "The later the better" as far as the bulletins are concerned, I don't mind waiting until wednesday or beyond :)

[suninphx]

i am sure suninphx only meant to let you know that the data already exists. All of us can alwasy discuss the data and put forth our view.

And no need to be sorry. In fact, thank you for participating.

correct- meant exactly that. Never meant to offence anyone. Just a pointer.

[pch053]

vishnu,
Assuming it as the total and 70% approval rate you have mentioned, we are talking about 2k demand for FY2011

I think it was meant 1927 applications for the first 6 months, which effectively means ~3.9 - 4K applications for the entire year and hence 6K spillover from EB5. Please correct me though if my interpretation is not correct.

[vishnu]

yes - it should translate into 3.9 - 4k for the year, but we don't know if it includes dependents and what the approval rate would be (historically has been around 70%).

[pch053]

If we consider 70% approval rate and 2.1 (primary to dependent ratio), then EB5 number can be quite high: 4K * 0.7 * 2.1 = 5,880. If this holds true, the spillover will be a little over 4K (though there are many assumptions in this calculation).

[pravara]

Still demand data not out, so VB will on next Wednesday not on this Friday :-(

-->Can someone explain why if the bulletin is not out on Friday, it wont be out till Wednesday? Why cant it be out on Monday or Tuesday?

[03May07]

-->Can someone explain why if the bulletin is not out on Friday, it wont be out till Wednesday? Why cant it be out on Monday or Tuesday?

I read our GC-Guru Q's post #2454 mentioning about that. I am thinking Q's source updated Q.

[mpurna77]

I read our GC-Guru Q's post #2454 mentioning about that. I am thinking Q's source updated Q.

No In June VB they waited for 2 days to grab demand data. so Q mentioning same for this bulletin too.

[qesehmk]

Usually its friday of first full week or wednesday the next week. Just an observation. I am not aware whether DoS has published this as a schedule somewhere.

[neospeed]

neospeed,
Demand data shows only documentarily qualified applicants from the pending list.

"Documentarily qualified applicants are those individuals who have obtained all documents required to meet the formal visa application requirements as specified by their consular office, and, for those applicants, the consular office has completed the necessary processing procedures."

Hello Veni,

You mean to say the all the above demand is pre adjudicated demand,And there is some other demand which is not counted in the demand data?. Anyways if dos is relying on this data to move the dates, that's all we need to consider right?.

[veni001]

If we consider 70% approval rate and 2.1 (primary to dependent ratio), then EB5 number can be quite high: 4K * 0.7 * 2.1 = 5,880. If this holds true, the spillover will be a little over 4K (though there are many assumptions in this calculation).

pch053,
Primary to dependent ratio(avg) for EB5 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-%28From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics%29) is 1:1.9( or multiplication factor of 2.9).

In the past five year we haven't seen EB5 consuming more the 5k. If the demand is as high as we are predicting for this year, i don't think USCIS has to propose recent changes to EB5 visa process (http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=a4b57b52e5800310VgnVCM100000082ca60aRCR D&vgnextchannel=68439c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1 RCRD)

[veni001]

Hello Veni,

You mean to say the all the above demand is pre adjudicated demand,And there is some other demand which is not counted in the demand data?. Anyways if dos is relying on this data to move the dates, that's all we need to consider right?.

neospeed,
That's right, since most of the EB2I&C pending are filed during July 2007 Fiasco, most of them should have been pre-adjudicated by now.

[qesehmk]

Shaumack thanks for pointing it out. There is somebody who is using information from this forum and publishing on MITTBBS. We are perfectly fine with that as long as they credit us. We wish the chinese folks and all kinds of people good luck in their immigration process.

Its possible they might have talked to some lawyer but somehow I find it hard to believe. Anyway ... its not worth further discussion. Just like our source is providing us information we don't mind others using it and posting it on their site.


Just read this on Chinese website where they also quote Q's blog. Feb 2007 then it be. :)

"The Indians got similar message with my company attorney. I believe this
information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information. information is from the same source with mine. My company attorney believes that the PD will be Feb.2007 and 6000-8000 SO will be released in July. The Indians have the same information."

[veni001]

Source is Bloomberg News - on my Bloomberg system. Unfortunatey not able to send attachment. But clear than FY 2010 saw 1950 applications and FY 2011 as of April, has seen 1927 applications. Approval ratio seems to be only about 70%.


If we consider 70% approval rate and 2.1 (primary to dependent ratio), then EB5 number can be quite high: 4K * 0.7 * 2.1 = 5,880. If this holds true, the spillover will be a little over 4K (though there are many assumptions in this calculation).

Also,
Looking at USCIS Dash Board (http://dashboard.uscis.gov/index.cfm?formtype=18&office=71&charttype=1) shows only 1,242 I-526 Receipts(EB5-Primary) from June 2010 - March 2011, 1,134 completions(Q1+Q2 FY2011 = 681) and 915 are pending as of march 2011!

[hsinghjkaur]

From the past observations, Demand Data generally comes out later in the day around 2 PM PST, so there is still a possibility of it...

[sha_kus]

visa bulliten

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html

[hsinghjkaur]

Not sure how it is released before demand data but anyways as it is at official site, we can believe it :)

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html

[neogator]

visa bulliten

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html


Is it really March 07 ??? Holy Cow!!

[03May07]

visa bulliten

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html

WOW!!! Q aren't you in Q

'Happier' is infact greater than 'Happy'

Q your source is awesome!!

[TeddyKoochu]

"08-Mar-2207" - This is really great news for everyone. The movement is close to 10K for EB2. This movement definitely keeps us on track for the Sep bulletin to move beyond Aug 2007. Q congratulations I think you are current now and on track to get GC this month.

[vishnu]

Very interesting that no commentary was provided on EB2 category... that plus no demand data published pre-visa bulletin = VERY interesting

[soggadu]

OMGGGGGGGGG....Q i told ya you & your source will be current...now i wish both of u get ur gc's soon... guys...very positive... i am hoping i too will be able to apply for EAD this year with Oct 22 2007 PD....

LET THE ANALYSIS BEGIN.....

[neospeed]

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html

march 07 wow

[mpurna77]

Is it really March 07 ??? Holy Cow!!

WOWW!!!!!!!!!

This time it broke all rules, before demand data earlier but sweet EB2I March 07.

Then by Sep VB it will current for all to apply EAD or Aug 07.

There is no comments on EB2 or EB3 to EB2 porting that is very good new going forward.

Its assures there will be more happiest movement in coming bulletins.

:-)

[soggadu]

WOWW!!!!!!!!!

This time it broke all rules, before demand data earlier but sweet EB2I March 07.

Then by Sep VB it will current for all to apply EAD or Aug 07.

There is no comments on EB2 or EB3 to EB2 porting that is very good new going forward.

Its assures there will be more happiest movement in coming bulletins.

:-)

I am hoping for year end 2007 by Sep...

[angryclubs]

My PD is March 7 2007. Made it by a day bitchez!!!!!!!!

[donvar]

Q ,
Your source is reliable. Congrats . This is a good movement.

[mpurna77]

My PD is March 7 2007. Made it by a day bitchez!!!!!!!!

Congratulations...you are the lucky man..

[soggadu]

"08-Mar-2207" - This is really great news for everyone. The movement is close to 10K for EB2. This movement definitely keeps us on track for the Sep bulletin to move beyond Aug 2007. Q congratulations I think you are current now and on track to get GC this month.

What are your predictions for coming months...

[pch053]

Wow, almost a 5 month forward movement! Now, my feeling is that it will go past July-Aug'07 in the Sep bulletin.

[sidd21]

Hi Q/All Gurus,

This is my very first post. Congratulations to all who have become current.!

My PD : 09 March 2007. AM I eligible to apply . IF not , Will i be lucky next month?

[qesehmk]

Friends, analysis will follow. But I am very glad that prediction from our source (AK) hit bulls eye !!

Those who are current .... many congratulations. May your wait come to a quick sweet end. As per me, I think my date is Mar 28th or so. So its not over yet. But I am confident now that I will get it during this cycle.

Once again friends .... love you all .... for your support, friendship and sharing. Will post some analysis in the evening if there is anything worthwhile.

[soggadu]

Hi Q/All Gurus,

This is my very first post. Congratulations to all who have become current.!

My PD : 09 March 2007. AM I eligible to apply . IF not , Will i be lucky next month?

hang on tight...you will be in by Aug 2011

[leo07]

so close & yet so far..I'm sure you'll get through this cycle. In fact, TeddyK, you & I could all get out.

[skpanda]

Unfortunately you are not eligible. Good news is you will be current in August Bulletin. Good luck!


Hi Q/All Gurus,

This is my very first post. Congratulations to all who have become current.!

My PD : 09 March 2007. AM I eligible to apply . IF not , Will i be lucky next month?

[03May07]

As per me, I think my date is Mar 28th or so.

Q you started talking like CO...trying not to give your exact PD. We need to start a new thread "Q's EB2 PD Predictions (Rather Calculations)"

[pch053]

Hi Q/All Gurus,

This is my very first post. Congratulations to all who have become current.!

My PD : 09 March 2007. AM I eligible to apply . IF not , Will i be lucky next month?
You have to wait one more month; have your docs ready so that you can apply during Aug'11 when your PD will be current.

[srini1976]

Friends, analysis will follow. But I am very glad that prediction from our source (AK) hit bulls eye !!

Those who are current .... many congratulations. May your wait come to a quick sweet end. As per me, I think my date is Mar 28th or so. So its not over yet. But I am confident now that I will get it during this cycle.

Once again friends .... love you all .... for your support, friendship and sharing. Will post some analysis in the evening if there is anything worthwhile.

Special Thanks to Q & his source. Good luck to all who are current.
I am current next month. Hopefully I should be greened next month.
My PD is 01/26/2007


Cheers.

[snathan]

July 2011 bulletin is out
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html

Really...thanks for sharing with us.:D

[skpanda]

There is no commentary on EB2 (for that matter on anything). For the last few bulletins they have been putting in lot of info and caveats.

I get a feeling that they realized they are going to be able to clear up the backlog and based on the above mentioned 'no commentary' in bulletin - They will make EB2 IC current in August or Sept VB.

I know i am dreaming... but atleast i will be happy for 1 or 2 months with this possible pipe dream.

Congratulations to friends who will get greened in next 1 month or so. Please pray for rest of us!!

[qesehmk]

Honest to God .... I have lost track of all my documentation because I am so much more concerned about my career. Although my career is held back and there were errors in GC processing; I do defer everything to the lawyers - not by choice - but by compulsion. I am 99% confident that date is Mar 28th though and 100% confident it is later than 21st March.



Q you started talking like CO...trying not to give your exact PD. We need to start a new thread "Q's EB2 PD Predictions (Rather Calculations)"

[leo07]

Not at this time. Hang in there, you'll get through this cycle.
Just as FYI and FWIW, Even 08th March 2007 is NOT eligible to file. Only uptil 7th March 2007 are eligible to apply in the month of July 2011.

Mine is 08th June 2007 :)

Hi Q/All Gurus,

This is my very first post. Congratulations to all who have become current.!

My PD : 09 March 2007. AM I eligible to apply . IF not , Will i be lucky next month?

[bieber]

With Aug bulleting, Q will get his gc and teddy gets to file 485

kudos to you both buddies

[bieber]

Really...thanks for sharing with us.:D

don't be harsh on kanmani, he/she didnot read the thread and wanted to share the news, that's so sweet

[snathan]

don't be harsh on kanmani, he/she didnot read the thread and wanted to share the news, that's so sweet

I am not harsh...just kidding.

Bwt...great work guys..

[veni001]

visa bulliten

http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_5489.html

EB2I&C moved to 08Mar2007

This is a big WOW!!!

Congratulations to those going to be C in July

[qesehmk]

I agree. Without doing any number crunching or reading with clarity (trying to juggle many things right now). .... I believe Jul-Aug 2007 is a very fair possibility and listen carefully now .... if July-Aug becomes a fair possibility then moving the dates by at least a year ahead of that i.e. Jul-Aug 2008 is not at all difficult. So those folks with PDs 2008 stay alert and prepared.... there is a decent "chance" that you may become current "for a brief period of time"



I get a feeling that they realized they are going to be able to clear up the backlog and based on the above mentioned 'no commentary' in bulletin - They will make EB2 IC current in August or Sept VB.

[snathan]

EB2I&C moved to 08Mar2007

This is a big WOW!!!

Congratulations to those going to be C in July

What is the chance for PD getting into 2008 in this FY

[gcwait2007]

Happy to see the visa bulletin with cut off date of 08 March 2007. I hope to be greened soon in the coming month :D

[veni001]

Q, Teddy, Spec, Others ...
If we are counting towards ~24k total SOFAD for final quarter, 75% of 24k (=18k) should be coming from the unused visas from Q1-Q3. Since USCIS is not bound to quarterly (or monthly) limitation in Q4 why should they wait until Aug/Sept to apply SOFAD from Q1-Q3?(assume ~=18k)

I am not getting the point of limiting spillover to only ~8k or less than what is available from Q1-Q3(excl EB1), for July VB?

Looks like DOS/USCIS going to use SOFAD from Q1-Q3 in July itself?

[veni001]

I agree. Without doing any number crunching or reading with clarity (trying to juggle many things right now). .... I believe Jul-Aug 2007 is a very fair possibility and listen carefully now .... if July-Aug becomes a fair possibility then moving the dates by at least a year ahead of that i.e. Jul-Aug 2008 is not at all difficult. So those folks with PDs 2008 stay alert and prepared.... there is a decent "chance" that you may become current "for a brief period of time"


Q,
Agree, interestingly enough, they did not throw any prediction this time in July 2011 Visa Bulletin for the remainder of the year.

[bieber]

Looks like DOS/USCIS going to use SOFAD from Q1-Q3 in July itself?
From oct2006-mar8,2007 the china + India inventory number is 10,500. If that's all they have left for SOFAD why would they use all in July

just noticed, the inventory between Mar 2007-Aug2007 is interestingly matches close to 10,500

it it too optimistice to think backlog will be cleared in Aug bulletin and sept is going to give a chance for new filers

[navik_pathak]

My PD is EB2I 14FEB2007 and as per JUL-11 visa bulletin i am current.

My question Is --> I have got Canada visitor visa on Tuesday 7th Jun and i have plan to go to Vancouver for next weekend 17,18,19 Jun on AP. based on this Jul11 Bulletin i am sure i can go but wanted see if there are any hidden adverse affects if at all.

Please share your thoughts...

[qesehmk]

I believe temporary visit abroad doesn't discontinue your AOS process. It might be prudent to check with your lawyer since I am not a lawyer!


My PD is EB2I 14FEB2007 and as per JUL-11 visa bulletin i am current.

My question Is --> I have got Canada visitor visa on Tuesday 7th Jun and i have plan to go to Vancouver for next weekend 17,18,19 Jun on AP. based on this Jul11 Bulletin i am sure i can go but wanted see if there are any hidden adverse affects if at all.

Please share your thoughts...

[veni001]

From oct2006-mar8,2007 the china + India inventory number is 10,500. If that's all they have left for SOFAD why would they use all in July

bieber,
I am looking at least 11 k Between 15OCT2006 to 08MAR2007 for EB2I&C, it may not be 75% of SOFAD leftover for FY2011 but significantly higher than every one thought.

[skpanda]

I would impagine they will have atleast 10K SOFAD for August/Sept VBs. Pending Demand for those two months will be more or less 10K. I have a feeling that they will consume 7K or so to take us June-07 in August VB and leave the rest 3K or so for Sept VB (just in case EB1 and EB2 ROW sees some unexpected approvals).

In the Sep VB they will utlize the 3K SOFAD and advance the dates by atleast 1 year (worst case) to Current (best case) so that they can build EB2IC pipeline for FY 2012 and further.

This is just a possibility!


bieber,
I am looking at least 11 k Between 15OCT2006 to 08MAR2007 for EB2I&C, it may not be 75% of SOFAD leftover for FY2011 but significantly higher than every one thought.

[victorian]

My PD is March 7 2007. Made it by a day bitchez!!!!!!!!

LOL. Mine is March 09, 2007. :shakes fist upstairs:

[ChampU]

EB2I&C moved to 08Mar2007

This is a big WOW!!!

Congratulations to those going to be C in July


A kickass start to the weekend!! Congrats to those who'll be C this month and those who are eligible to file the I-485..
To those who are waiting.. Keep your chins up and spirits high!! Freedom Express is rolling..
Let it Roll, Baby Roll!!!

[bieber]

bieber,
I am looking at least 11 k Between 15OCT2006 to 08MAR2007 for EB2I&C, it may not be 75% of SOFAD leftover for FY2011 but significantly higher than every one thought.
Since the cutoff dates are not aligning with begining of the months, I did some guess work for oct 2006(50%) and march 2007(25%) :)

[TeddyKoochu]

Inventory difference between 15th Oct 2006 and 8th Mar 2007
China : 5529 - 2109 = 3420
India : 15578 - 7206 = 8372

The total inventory difference is 11792. I would say that the movement is ~ 12K. Remember before the July bulletin the target was 24K in 3 months now 50% is completed. This effectively renders the preadjudicated EB2 I + C demand to 10-12K range.
The PWMB total from May to Jul is 5K. PWMB for now are insignificant to date movements because they are like virtual demand will come to the fore only when the dates move till that point. Now the way forward as many of you have asked. The August bulletin is going to be extremely critical; we now have 10-12K preadjudicated numbers post 8th Mar 2007. So even if we get 6K in the next 2 bulletins it should be ok. However looks like the next bulletin will also be a long shot and September will be like finishing touches.

Now we have to be cognizant to the fact that 15 + 12K = 27K SOFAD has been consumed we have crossed last years figures already. So we should keep our optimism a little bit guarded as well as to how much more we can get. I still feel that the preadjudicated numbers will be enough but looks like they will be barely enough so to cover all of them they may move the dates to 01-Aug-2007 or 01-Sep-2007 by the Sep bulletin for sure to get every one of them.

The gate definitely has to be opened it should either happen in Sep 2011 or Oct 2011 bulletin. The intake should be sufficient to maintain a 40K buffer. If the dates hit 01-Aug-2007 which I believe is 60% sure then the next intake should be till mid 2008. We will be adjusting this based on the Aug bulletin. The critical things are that people who are current should get approved that’s the key to move forward. Good luck to everyone.

[veni001]

Inventory difference between 15th Oct 2006 and 8th Mar 2007
China : 5529 - 2109 = 3420
India : 15578 - 7206 = 8372

The total inventory difference is 11792. I would say that the movement is ~ 12K. Remember before the July bulletin the target was 24K in 3 months now 50% is completed. This effectively renders the preadjudicated EB2 I + C demand to 10-12K range.
The PWMB total from May to Jul is 5K. PWMB for now are insignificant to date movements because they are like virtual demand will come to the fore only when the dates move till that point.
Now the way forward as many of you have asked. The August bulletin is going to be extremely critical; we now have 10-12K preadjudicated numbers post
8th Mar 2007. So even if we get 6K in the next 2 bulletins it should be ok. However looks like the next bulletin will also be a long shot and September will be like finishing touches.

Now we have to be cognizant to the fact that 15 + 12K = 27K SOFAD has been consumed we have crossed last years figures already. So we should keep our optimism a little bit guarded as well as to how much more we can get. I still feel that the preadjudicated numbers will be enough but looks like they will be barely enough so to cover all of them they may move the dates to 01-Aug-2007 or 01-Sep-2007 by the Sep bulletin for sure to get every one of them.

The gate definitely has to be opened it should either happen in Sep 2011 or Oct 2011 bulletin. The intake should be sufficient to maintain a 40K buffer. If the dates hit 01-Aug-2007 which I believe is 60% sure then the next intake should be till mid 2008. We will be adjusting this based on the Aug bulletin. The critical things are that people who are current should get approved that’s the key to move forward. Good luck to everyone.


Teddy,
I agree with PWMB, I am not expecting any more than 500 PWMB cases from EB2I&C until 08MAR2007.
Since EB2I&C already reached MARCH2007, DOS/USCIS should move EB2I&C to at-least JULY/AUG 2007 in August 2011 bulletin itself, assuming that they will have another ~10k available.

[ChampU]

Teddy,
I agree with PWMB, I am not expecting any more than 500 PWMB cases from EB2I&C until 08MAR2007.
Since EB2I&C already reached MARCH2007, DOS/USCIS should move EB2I&C to at-least JULY/AUG 2007 in August 2011 bulletin itself, assuming that they will have another ~10k available.

Thats some good stuff, Teddy/Veni !!!

[veni001]

Thats some good stuff, Teddy/Veni !!!


Teddy,
I agree with PWMB, I am not expecting any more than 500 PWMB cases from EB2I&C until 08MAR2007.
Since EB2I&C already reached MARCH2007, DOS/USCIS should move EB2I&C to at-least JULY/AUG 2007 in August 2011 bulletin itself, assuming that they will have another ~10k available.

This will give them an option to invite buffer, if they choose to, before end of FY and retrogress.

[tanu_75]

Pretty cool! Looks like we are on on track folks. Congratulations to all the folks who got current. Q, looks like a month more to the end of the GC road for you. :)

[anuran]

That is some good movement. But where is the assessment for forthcoming bulletins as well as the demand data?
Things must be moving pretty hectic over there in the corridors of USCIS. And it is almost as if they cobbled up a bulletin.
This might also mean that the Aug bulletin will be at least as good as the current one or better.
All the same congratulations to those who are current.

[pch053]

As mentioned earlier, we have already hit the SOFAD usage as compared to last earlier (and now, more is expected in the coming months). I guess, few months back (before USCIS announce of EB1 usage) the expectation was that we will have fewer SOFAD this year with one reason being we have 140K visas this year whereas there were nearly 150K approvals last year. So, is much higher than expected FD from EB1 to EB2I+C the primary source of higher SOFAD numbers? Or are we having fewer EB2-ROW approvals too?

[veni001]

As mentioned earlier, we have already hit the SOFAD usage as compared to last earlier (and now, more is expected in the coming months). I guess, few months back (before USCIS announce of EB1 usage) the expectation was that we will have fewer SOFAD this year with one reason being we have 140K visas this year whereas there were nearly 150K approvals last year. So, is much higher than expected FD from EB1 to EB2I+C the primary source of higher SOFAD numbers? Or are we having fewer EB2-ROW approvals too?

pch053,
Based on Trackitt and all other sources we have been tracking EB2ROW usage is more or less same as FY2010. I agree we did not expect very high FD from EB1 in the beginning of FY but in the end is the prime driver behind this year's movement.

[srd4gc]

hi guys, i am new to this forum.
my PD is nov 2007. any idea when i wud be current.
Congrats to all who are current!

[veni001]

That is some good movement. But where is the assessment for forthcoming bulletins as well as the demand data?
Things must be moving pretty hectic over there in the corridors of USCIS. And it is almost as if they cobbled up a bulletin.
This might also mean that the Aug bulletin will be at least as good as the current one or better.
All the same congratulations to those who are current.

anuran,
We are all expecting that DOS/USCIS will throw their prediction for the remainder of FY2011 in July VB, but as we know we can never bet on DOS/USCIS :)
But based on July VB movement we can now start believe in the NVC fee requests for CP eases as far as early 2008!

[GCDespo]

Q,
Agree, interestingly enough, they did not throw any prediction this time in July 2011 Visa Bulletin for the remainder of the year.


Yes that is intresting they have been saying not to assume anything and now there are no disclaimers as well.Which could be a good news

[veni001]

hi guys, i am new to this forum.
my PD is nov 2007. any idea when i wud be current.
Congrats to all who are current!

srd4gc,
Welcome, It could be as early as next month! or as far far Q3FY2012.

[srd4gc]

Next Month!!! Wow, i hope that really happens.

[veni001]

Next Month!!! Wow, i hope that really happens.

I wish too, i mean Next Bulletin( August 2011)

[neospeed]

Now its time for Aug predictions :)

Aug : July 08th 2007 ?
Sep : Jan 08th 2008 ?

[July2007PD]

I have couple of questions my PD is July 11 2007 Eb2 India

Last week i moved to another company and i have few questions

1) Do i get a letter from USCIS to pay fee when they are approaching to make mine current ?
2) If and when my PD becomes current do i get a email notification ? or mail ? or does the notification goes to my "NEW" lawyers for the company who filed AC 21

Since my new company is a small company i am not really sure how they track it. so Can somebody let me know what are the things i need to do so i dont miss the FEE letter and anyother MISC things i need to take care off.

Lastly i know this may been asked many times is there a chance my PD to become current soon ? just to kinda reassure myself :)

Please let me know!!

[pch053]

pch053,
Based on Trackitt and all other sources we have been tracking EB2ROW usage is more or less same as FY2010. I agree we did not expect very high FD from EB1 in the beginning of FY but in the end is the prime driver behind this year's movement.

Thanks veni for the explanation. I think EB2-I/C have got a huge FD from EB1. Based on what I remember, the EB1 usage last year was around 40K. I feel this year it might be in the range of 25K (or maybe less). Not sure whether this steep decline is due to fewer EB1C usage; I think consistently EB1C has used up around 60% of the EB1 quota.

[gcwait2007]

Some thing wrong with my eyes! Every thing looks 'green' color to me today :D (my PD 02/20/2007)

[cbpds1]

Some thing wrong with my eyes! Every thing looks 'green' color to me today :D (my PD 02/20/2007)

enjoy ur color blindness till it becomes permanent (pun intended)

[veni001]

Thanks veni for the explanation. I think EB2-I/C have got a huge FD from EB1. Based on what I remember, the EB1 usage last year was around 40K. I feel this year it might be in the range of 25K (or maybe less). Not sure whether this steep decline is due to fewer EB1C usage; I think consistently EB1C has used up around 60% of the EB1 quota.


On an average EB1C used to consume 55% (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php?56-i140-to-i1485-Ratios-%28From-DHS-Year-Books-of-Statistics%29) of EB1. But looks like EB1 reduction is across the board this year mainly due to Kazarian Guidance (http://www.uscis.gov/USCIS/Outreach/Interim%20Guidance%20for%20Comment/Kazarian%20Guidance%20AD10-41.pdf)

[veni001]

EB2I Pending with PD before March 2007 =17,381
EB2C Pending with PD before March 2007 = 6,950

Total movement with July 2011 bulletin ~= 25k + Porting Numbers

This include 5,806 EB2I&C regular quota for 2011, so Net SOFAD until July 2011 VB ~=19K

[C_Carrey]

Thanks Q, Teddy and others for the exhaustive work you guys have done over the last several months. I have been following this thread since its inception on IV. At IV, I had seen the threads created by individual needing help or providing some information. Nothing bad in that. Q's thread was the first successful attempt in creating a thread, "owning" the content and collaborating with others for shedding the light on the process that lot of us were clueless about. This is indeed a commendable effort. VDLrao was the first person who started the process and Q and others took it to the next level. Kudos !

Now the business: What are some of the things you could do if your date is current and you have already filed I-485? I am one of those who rode July-07 boat....and curious to know what could be and should be done between now and till the fun begins in July. Thank you for all the replies.

- Carrey

[qesehmk]

Carrey, thanks for the kind words. I really can't think of anything really. More than likely your case is adjudicated AND approved. Because if it were denial they wouldn't wait to tell you. So just sit back and relax.
What are some of the things you could do if your date is current and you have already filed I-485? I am one of those who rode July-07 boat....and curious to know what could be and should be done between now and till the fun begins in July. Thank you for all the replies.
- Carrey


Q: BTW, I want to thank you and everyone over here from whom I learned at lot. I got Current today, I am one of those PWMBs with late 2006 Priority Date who was royally screwed by the attorney for submitting incorrect filing fees on 1 Aug 07. Finally after long wait I will get chance to file I-485, but this does not mean I am going anywhere. I will keep posting whenever I would disagree with Gurus over here or when I will come across any interesting information to share here. Cheers. :)

Stuff happens... aint it? Glad you are finally current. You should get it before Dec for sure (unless some issues with your case of course). Hope to see you around and spread some wisdom!

[gcforever]

Guys,

Can someone tell me when can EB2 with PD 02/2011 expect GC? My PERM was filed in Oct 2008 which was denied after more than 2 years. Then my employer filed new PERM in Feb. 2011 which is approved now. So next stage is I-140. In your opinion, when will my PD become current?

[sunsrk]

Hi gurus, I am new to this forum. My PD is June, 2008. I have a job offer at hand and company can hire me in 1 month from now and are willing to file my PERM in 4 to 5 months time frame. With priority dates moving so fast, I am confused. Company is big and position is full-time.

Please share your thoughts or advice. I am thinking I may miss my chance of EAD even if PD moves very fast and goes back in October bulletin. But GC will not come anytime before Sep/Oct of 2012. Please comment.

[lagan2006]

Thanks Q, Teddy. Spec, Veni for your excellent work. Kudos to you all!!! This is one the best thread and I have been silently following this thread since its inception. My PD is Dec 2006 but I missed I-485 filling because of DOL error (PERM denied). If I file my I485 this July do you guys think I will get my GC within this year quota (By Sept 2011)? Or do I need to wait for next year quota..may be 6 months from now? I need to know that information because I need to change my job ASAP.Q, Teddy others, Please share your thought. Thanks in advance.