EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[qesehmk]

Sep 07 - We have cleaned up this thread and archived all old posts. Those archives of old EB2-3 Calculations can be found HERE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/68-Archives)


General Trends

Tailwinds (+ve things)
· Economy is not doing that bad but the PERM certification show it is not doing great. We expect this trend to continue into 2015.
· Very low EB3 demand
. 4K extra visas from FB.

Headwinds (-ve things)
. High EB2ROW demand and equally high EB2 overall demand.
· Increased EB1 usage & current EB1 backlog.
· EB5 close to being retrogressed.

Impact of Presidential Executive Order on Immigration

The Executive Order issued by President Obama on Nov 20th is directional and not prescriptive. It leaves the agencies and departments to determine the specific course of action. There are two tangible benefits that can be expected in near term (3 months) as a result of this order.
1. The president has asked CBP officers to not consider prior visa violations while giving entry to a person using advanced parole.
2. There is an H4-EAD rule (http://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/05/12/2014-10734/employment-authorization-for-certain-h-4-dependent-spouses) being discussed (even prior to the Executive Order). So as part of the executive order the agencies might finally implement this in next couple of months.

From backlog reduction / visa relief perspective the order leaves it upto agencies to decide what specific action they would take. It is highly likely that ability to file 485 without dates being current would be one of the things the agencies might propose within next 6 months. Somewhat likely also could be visa recapture from prior years. Visa recapture is the process of counting unused visas from prior years and making them available going forward. Such action previously has only been possible with a law being passed by congress. However many experts have opined that it DHS does not need a law to be passed in order to recapture unused visas from prior years. There is a third and less likely option that agencies might consider. It includes not counting EB dependents under EB quota. This will effectively almost double EB quota for every year and could possibly make all categories current for foreseeable future. Please understand these are all possibilities at this point of time.

[Spectator]

As always, please take the following with a pinch of salt. It is a best effort, but the variables mean it can never be truly accurate and has wide error margins.

FY2017

EB1

Without any substantial change, EB1 is likely to use its full allocation again in FY2017. This is even more likely, since EB1 China and India were retrogressed for the final 2 months of FY2016 - therefore up to 14 months of demand will be available in FY2017 for these Countries.

EB4

For EB4, CO has set a 15JUN15 FAD in October for El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras within EB4 and expects slow progress during FY2017. If that's the case, then there will not be any spillover from EB4 in FY2017.

EB5

The EB5 regional center program is currently scheduled to sunset at the end of FY2016. If, as is widely expected, it is extended, then EB5 will not provide SO either. Even if the amounts required to qualify under the RC are substantially increased, there is already a large backlog of Chinese investors under the old system, sufficient for several years. Should the RC program eventually be abolished, it would provide a healthy number of spare visas in the short term.

Family Based Visas from FY2016

All FB Categories and Countries are retrogressed. FB should use all their 226k allocation in FY2016. Any spare visas would be a bonus. CO seems to be doing a better job utilizing them recently. As an update, CO has now published the anticipated Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2017 (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf). This shows no anticipated extra visas from FB use last FY, so the EB limit for FY2017 will be 140k. Although it may get updated at a later date, I don't expect much change - perhaps a few hundred as in FY2016.

PERM

PERM certifications for the last 6-7 months have remained very high, so the pipeline of ROW approvals for the first half of FY2017 is also likely to be quite high.

It's true that the PERM certifications have been high and the backlog has reduced (from 58.9k at the end of FY2015 to 38.6k at the end of Q3 FY2016). At some point, the certifications should slow, but it's not clear when this might happen. Last time (FY2011) OFLC brought the backlog down to 20k.

At the same time, the number of new PERM receipts also appears to have risen (from 87.6k in FY2015 to a prorated 99.4k in FY2016).

EB2

Worldwide

The high PERM pipeline plus retrogression in the last 2 months of FY2016 means that EB2-WW approvals are likely to remain relatively high for at least the first half of FY2017. Due to the retrogression, up to 14 months demand is available in FY2017 for EB2-WW.

India

The prospects for EB2-I in FY2017 look quite bleak. The sources of traditional spillover look to be dry for a second successive year. This might only change late in the FY.

EB3

India

High PERM certifications and a trend towards an increased % of ROW EB3 cases may put the squeeze on available Fall Across within EB3.

EB3-I still has the very difficult last week of March 2005 to traverse. Again, any substantial movement will happen very late in the FY. Until then, it will be glacially slow.

[imdeng]

Placeholder for FY2015 predictions.

[vizcard]

imdeng,

Thanks for the kind words.

I hear what you say about pre-adjudication and I think you are probably correct.

Unfortunately, that also means that the DOS Demand figures will undercount the true numbers, since USCIS will not request the visa until pre-adjudication is complete.

Sometimes it's just nice to wish. Would it have taken so much effort to have added another stage in the online status to reflect pre-adjudication when they changed the system?

I don't think so. It just reflects that USCIS are not, despite what they might want people to believe, very customer orientated.

Which could mean that the dates might move faster (whenever they do move) than they should and then retrogress again.

[YTeleven]

In few hours from now we will be in FY15, this will be my last post in FY14.
I've a very positive prediction for EB3-India folks who are waiting for more than 10 years in the GC Q.
Back in May'14 I was predicting that EB3-India will have bright future ahead in this post: here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/5-EB3-Predictions-amp-Calculations?p=46298#post46298)

After a thorough data analysis I could say that in FY16 we will see a complete wipe out of EB3-I I485 inventory as shown in this graph:EB3-I I485 inventory trends (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92UnBIMC1qRDMzb0U/edit?usp=sharing)
Here I'm comparing the same graph with current EB3-ROW inventory trend:EB3-I I485 inventory trends comparing with EB3-ROW inventory trend (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92NE5OT2lnaGdrSmM/edit?usp=sharing)

After seeing these graphs you might question why would we see 20k spillover to EB3-I in FY16. This is what I'm getting from all the available data pointers.
After FY15 there will not be any demand for EB3 to consume its yearly 40k visas and that gives a massive horizontal spillover to EB3-India.
So this means we will have inventory buildup for EB3-I also in FY16.

Already, this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=53828#post53828) predicts that there is a possibility for EB2-I inventory building in FY16.

[sportsfan33]

No number crunching from me, taking a macro view.

Here are the visa bulletins in the month of September for the last 4 years:

2010: May 8, 2006
2011: Apr 15, 2007
2012: NA
2013: June 15, 2008
2014: May 1, 2009

Salient observations:
- Over the last 4 years, average date advancement is 9 months per calender year.
- Over the last 3 years, the average date advancement is 7.5 months per calender year.
- Even between 2011-2013, when we were hit by increasing EB1 and EB2-ROW demand, the average movement continued at 7 months per calender year.

Tailwinds going forward:
- EB2-ROW: Getting a Perm is going to be very tough going forward.
- Porting from EB3I to EB2I: Read above.

Headwinds going forward:
- EB5: For all practical purposes, consider this out of equation.

Unknown:
- EB1: In particular EB1C. In my opinion, EB1 is one Kazarian-style memo away (that hits EB1C-I hard) from giving 10K+ spillover.
- FB spillover: It is still not clear whether FB spillover will be available.

Overall, we lose EB5, but the damage is contained since EB5 cannot get numbers from anywhere else (thank goodness). We should gain big time due to increasing PERM delays, so everyone whose PERMs and labors are clear gain advantage.

One of the biggest factors though that facilitated all the date movement for the last 2 years was FB spillover in 2013 and 2014. FB gave EB 28K visas combined over the last 2 years, and an estimated 20K of those visas were consumed by EB2I. This is a huge number and made all the difference for EB2I. 20K for EB2I is almost an years worth of advancement. Without the FB numbers, we would be at May 1, 2008 today and not in May 1, 2009.

For FY 2015:
- Not having significant FB spillover will impact the movement negatively.
- The positive effect of PERM delays will not show up significantly for FY 2015. However, increased PERM delays will ensure that EB2-ROW doesn't kill EB2I which was otherwise looking like a real possibility.
- EB1 and EB2-ROW will still provide some spillover. EB2-ROW spillover will only come due to PERM delays.
- Without having any other source of spillover, the movement will be just enough to reach the end of 2009. Going to the 3 year average, my point estimate is December 15, 2009.

[Kanmani]

Notes on Discussion with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control, updated Oct 01 2014.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/10/01/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-eb-3-row-and-china-to-advance-october-1-2014/

[Light@EOT]

Notes on Discussion with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control, updated Oct 01 2014.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/10/01/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-eb-3-row-and-china-to-advance-october-1-2014/
the article says...

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

I hope it is an indication of inventory build up.... any comments/ thoughts

[Light@EOT]

Gurus -

I do not have access to the PERM data docs. ( I don't want to ask the company or attorney!). I am interested in finding the exact job description used in PERM.

I do have the ETA Case number with me. I remember there used to be a way to see the details online in some site.

Can someone please help me with this.

Admin -

Pls move to appropriate thread, if this is not the correct one.

Thank you in advance.

[Spectator]

Unofficial PERM Certifications FY2014

The figures are based on OFLC Data for Q1-Q3 FY2014 and DOL LCR Data for Q4 FY2014.

I have updated the charts (only) in this post. The PERM posts will be updated when the official OFLC disclosure data is released.

The following shows certifications for FY2014 and the increase on certifications in FY2013. Certifications in FY2013 were 35,206.

FY2014 vs FY2013 ------ Increase
China -------- 4,696 ---- 120%
India ------- 35,164 ----- 68%
Mexico ------- 1,293 ----- 80%
Philippines -- 1,508 ----- 63%
ROW --------- 20,018 ----- 91%
ALL --------- 62,679 ----- 78%

The following shows the FY2014 figures for H1 (Q1-Q2) FY2014 and the increase on certifications in H1 FY2013.

FY2014 vs FY2013 H1 - Increase
China -------- 1,831 ----- 37%
India ------- 14,539 ----- 18%
Mexico --------- 603 ----- 31%
Philippines ---- 684 ----- 23%
ROW ---------- 8,543 ----- 33%
ALL --------- 26,200 ----- 24%

The following shows the FY2014 figures for H2 (Q3-Q4) FY2014 and the increase on certifications in H2 FY2013.

FY2014 vs FY2013 H2 - Increase
China -------- 2,865 ---- 257%
India ------- 20,625 ---- 140%
Mexico --------- 690 ---- 166%
Philippines ---- 824 ---- 122%
ROW --------- 11,475 ---- 182%
ALL --------- 36,479 ---- 159%

The following shows the relative % of certifications in FY2014 by half year and the % increase in H2 compared to H1.

FY2014 --------- H1 ---- H2 - H2 vs H1
China --------- 39% --- 61% --- 56%
India --------- 41% --- 59% --- 42%
Mexico -------- 47% --- 53% --- 14%
Philippines --- 45% --- 55% --- 20%
ROW ----------- 43% --- 57% --- 34%
ALL ----------- 42% --- 58% --- 39%

The following shows the relationship between certifications in Q3-Q4 FY2013 and Q1-Q2 FY2014 (likely to translate to FY2014 GC approvals for Current Countries) versus the certifications in Q3-Q4 FY2014 (likely to translate to FY2015 GC approvals for Current Countries). Certifications to come in Q1-Q2 FY2015 are likely to also translate to GC approvals in FY2015.

------------- H2FY13/
------------- H1FY14 - H2FY14 --- %
China -------- 2,633 -- 2,865 - 109%
India ------- 23,116 - 20,625 -- 89%
Mexico --------- 862 ---- 690 -- 80%
Philippines -- 1,056 ---- 824 -- 78%
ROW --------- 12,608 - 11,475 -- 91%
ALL --------- 40,275 - 36,479 -- 91%

[skpanda]

Notes on Discussion with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control, updated Oct 01 2014.

http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2014/10/01/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-eb-3-row-and-china-to-advance-october-1-2014/


Official confirmation that inventory buildup will happen early in the FY.

EB2-I inventory buildup should happen either Oct-Nov-Dec 2015 (Best Case) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2016 (Optimistic) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 (Worst Case).

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

[itsmusa]

@Light@EOT

You can send FOIA request to DOL to send you the copy of PERM. I sent email to DOL just couple of days back to get the certified copy of PERM.

DOL website - http://www.dol.gov/dol/foia/guide6.htm

Google - PERM FOIA to get more details.

[Spectator]

Gurus -

I do not have access to the PERM data docs. ( I don't want to ask the company or attorney!). I am interested in finding the exact job description used in PERM.

I do have the ETA Case number with me. I remember there used to be a way to see the details online in some site.

Can someone please help me with this.

Admin -

Pls move to appropriate thread, if this is not the correct one.

Thank you in advance.Light@EOT,

If the case is certified and the data is available, you can go to the DOL LCR site (https://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?event=ehLCJRExternal.dspLCRLanding).

Choose Case Type PERM and enter your ETA case number. Make sure the Start Date Range covers your case. Choose search and the case will come up. On the right hand side is a link to the redacted ETA 9089 document. Here's an example (https://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?event=ehLCJRExternal.dspCert&doc_id=3&visa_class_id=6&id=863688) from yesterday for case number A-14114-63601.

I hope that helps.

[vizcard]

Light@EOT,

If the case is certified and the data is available, you can go to the DOL LCR site (https://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?event=ehLCJRExternal.dspLCRLanding).

Choose Case Type PERM and enter your ETA case number. Make sure the Start Date Range covers your case. Choose search and the case will come up. On the right hand side is a link to the redacted ETA 9089 document. Here's an example (https://icert.doleta.gov/index.cfm?event=ehLCJRExternal.dspCert&doc_id=3&visa_class_id=6&id=863688) from yesterday for case number A-14114-63601.

I hope that helps.


I believe this system only gives records after some date in 2009. I know I couldn't get mine from 2008.

[CleanSock]

I hope it is an indication of demand generation sometime in near future. Beginning of FY2015 is definitely ruled out as he has already predicted retrogression to early 2005. Also, as gurus here have calculated before, there are almost 28k applications between May 2009 and May 2010 including porters. It is unlikely there will be any demand generation this fiscal year.

Another point might be that he is talking in general about other categories. For example, EB2 China advances every year till last quarter after which it stops till the beginning of next fiscal year. He maybe pointing to such scenarios.




Official confirmation that inventory buildup will happen early in the FY.

EB2-I inventory buildup should happen either Oct-Nov-Dec 2015 (Best Case) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2016 (Optimistic) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 (Worst Case).

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

[Spectator]

I hope it is an indication of demand generation sometime in near future. Beginning of FY2015 is definitely ruled out as he has already predicted retrogression to early 2005. Also, as gurus here have calculated before, there are almost 28k applications between May 2009 and May 2010 including porters. It is unlikely there will be any demand generation this fiscal year.

Another point might be that he is talking in general about other categories. For example, EB2 China advances every year till last quarter after which it stops till the beginning of next fiscal year. He maybe pointing to such scenarios.I think he is reiterating what he said last year (http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/10/23/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-october-23-2013/), using the exact same language.

Without this approach, EB2-I would retrogress in October, since only 252 visas would otherwise be available.

As it impacts inventory build up this year, it suggests that the EB3-WW COD may be advanced rapidly towards Current earlier rather than later, within the constraints of visa availability in Q1 for preadjudicated cases.

As we have seen previously, there is a danger with this approach if the demand generated greatly outstrips the available supply of visas for the year and if the COD is left at too late a date for too long. This isn't likely to be a problem for EB3-WW, but it will be a consideration when EB2-I turn comes.

[CleanSock]

I cannot believe how exact the language is! Maybe cilawgroup used the same text as last year with minor modifications based on what he said. I am not sure how strong the prediction of demand generation is as the same thing was said last year but demand generation did not happen (at least not in EB2I).


I think he is reiterating what he said last year (http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2013/10/23/visa-bulletin-predictions-and-updates-from-charles-oppenheim-major-retrogression-in-eb-2-india-october-23-2013/), using the exact same language.

Without this approach, EB2-I would retrogress in October, since only 252 visas would otherwise be available.

As it impacts inventory build up this year, it suggests that the EB3-WW COD may be advanced rapidly towards Current earlier rather than later, within the constraints of visa availability in Q1 for preadjudicated cases.

As we have seen previously, there is a danger with this approach if the demand generated greatly outstrips the available supply of visas for the year and if the COD is left at too late a date for too long. This isn't likely to be a problem for EB3-WW, but it will be a consideration when EB2-I turn comes.

[Spectator]

CleanSock,

TBH, that is what I think as well. No other article about the meeting has mentioned all the points in the CIL article and it is just too much a duplicate of the 2013 post for my liking. It felt like deja vu when I read the new article.

[Spectator]

I don't know how other people feel, but (apart from EB1C), it seems to have been a rather underwhelming start to FY2015, judging by Trackitt.

[qesehmk]

I don't know how other people feel, but (apart from EB1C), it seems to have been a rather underwhelming start to FY2015, judging by Trackitt.
What do you mean spec?

[jdoe99]

I don't know how other people feel, but (apart from EB1C), it seems to have been a rather underwhelming start to FY2015, judging by Trackitt.

Spec, I assumed it was on par. My rationale is that on Oct 1 USCIS will start asking for visas from DOS. There has to be a few days delay in those processes, right?

[Spectator]

I'm not worried about it.

I had a look back at October 2013.

USCIS were rather faster off the mark. By the end of the third day there were 58 EB2-I approvals alone on Trackitt. Probably not quite that many, since some were only updated a little later.

Currently, there are 11 approvals for EB2-I this year.

If not already allocated on October 1 as CO said he did in his DD comments last year, the visas would be immediately available if requested. That is instant and the approval could be made immediately. Perhaps some are going for supervisory review.

The breakdown on Trackitt at the moment is

EB1A ------ 1
EB1B ------ 0
EB1C ----- 10
EB2-I ---- 11
EB2-ROW --- 1
EB3-I ----- 1
EB3-ROW --- 1

Total ---- 25

That compares to 91 last year.

EB3-WW have been waiting for the COD to advance for months.

I was just hoping for a slightly faster start to the year, more akin to last year. Maybe I was just being over optimistic. The approval pace does need to pick up if the plan is to to use the EB2-I yearly allocation in October.

[ambrosia]

Official confirmation that inventory buildup will happen early in the FY.

EB2-I inventory buildup should happen either Oct-Nov-Dec 2015 (Best Case) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2016 (Optimistic) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 (Worst Case).

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

sorry to sound ignorant, but what does the below mean

"EB2-I inventory buildup should happen either Oct-Nov-Dec 2015 (Best Case) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2016 (Optimistic) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 (Worst Case)."

[vizcard]

sorry to sound ignorant, but what does the below mean

"EB2-I inventory buildup should happen either Oct-Nov-Dec 2015 (Best Case) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2016 (Optimistic) or Oct-Nov-Dec 2017 (Worst Case)."

No such as a dumb question on this forum! Even gurus who have "seen it all" find new things and situations on here every day. Such is the immigration system. Now to answer your question.

first some definitions:
Demand - approved cases that are waiting for a visa number to be assigned.
Inventory - all cases in a category (approved and in process). Demand is a subset of Inventory.

Inventory of EB2I applications for processing has peaks and valleys. Inventory buildup is the "phenomenon" where CO moves the cut off dates way in to the future to have as many people apply as possible (to get to the peak) followed by a major retrogression. USCIS then processes these cases based on subsequent CODs.

CO sets CODs based on his visibility in to pending Inventory (and Demand) of cases to be processed. If he does not feel there is sufficient inventory and demand in the system, that is the trigger to do a "build up".

Last time this happened was Q42011/Q12012 where the dates moved till May 2010. USCIS is still processing the inventory from then. That is why the gurus on here rely on Inventory data quite a bit for calculations. That long with the Demand Data give a pretty good picture of whats left in the hopper for EB2I as well as potential spillover from other categories.

Obviously the dates in that statement are expected timeframes for when this could happen.

Hope that helps.

[imdeng]

So no hope of an EB1C slowdown as yet. Last year's high number consumption by EB1C seems like becoming a regular feature - and if that happens then we are likely not going to see any vertical spillover from EB1.

I don't know how other people feel, but (apart from EB1C), it seems to have been a rather underwhelming start to FY2015, judging by Trackitt.

[ambrosia]

No such as a dumb question on this forum! Even gurus who have "seen it all" find new things and situations on here every day. Such is the immigration system. Now to answer your question.

first some definitions:
Demand - approved cases that are waiting for a visa number to be assigned.
Inventory - all cases in a category (approved and in process). Demand is a subset of Inventory.

Inventory of EB2I applications for processing has peaks and valleys. Inventory buildup is the "phenomenon" where CO moves the cut off dates way in to the future to have as many people apply as possible (to get to the peak) followed by a major retrogression. USCIS then processes these cases based on subsequent CODs.

CO sets CODs based on his visibility in to pending Inventory (and Demand) of cases to be processed. If he does not feel there is sufficient inventory and demand in the system, that is the trigger to do a "build up".

Last time this happened was Q42011/Q12012 where the dates moved till May 2010. USCIS is still processing the inventory from then. That is why the gurus on here rely on Inventory data quite a bit for calculations. That long with the Demand Data give a pretty good picture of whats left in the hopper for EB2I as well as potential spillover from other categories.

Obviously the dates in that statement are expected timeframes for when this could happen.

Hope that helps.

Thank you much for the detailed explanation.

[sportsfan33]

Trackitt update (EB2I approvals starting October 2013):

Oct 2013 - Nov 2013: 665
TSC - 398
NSC - 262
Other - 5

Dec 2013 - June 2014: 49
TSC - 32
NSC - 17
Other - 0

July 2014 - Sept 2014: 1375
TSC - 858
NSC - 495
Other - 22

Total FY 2014: 2089
TSC - 1288 (62%)
NSC - 774 (37%)
Other - 27 (1%)

Current FY 2015:

Total: 22
TSC - 9
NSC - 13

Trackitt data shows that the EB2I approval factor is no longer 13, but has reduced substantially in the range of 8-10. More people have started tracking their cases. Also, so far in October, there are not many approvals yet. Some of the longstanding pending cases with RDs in 2012 continue to be unapproved.

Finally, looking across all 3 different time slices from FY 2014, TSC has about 60% cases and NSC has about 40%. This proportion is remarkably constant in all times.

[imdeng]

Any thoughts on the VB that should land in a couple days? I am thinking EB2I retrogress to irrelevance considering that not many approvals are happening lately - so they might be done with any slack. EB2C doing its usual 1 month per VB march. EB3ROW moves between 6 month to 1 year.

I am looking forward just to see what happens on EB3ROW front.

[Spectator]

Courtesy of Murthy http://www.murthy.com/2014/10/08/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-coming-months/


Visa Bulletin Predictions for Coming Months

October 8, 2014

On October 1, 2014, the Chief of the Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State (DOS), Charles Oppenheim, provided explanations and predictions related to employment-based categories for visa bulletin developments expected during the next few months of fiscal year 2015 (FY15). This information was provided at a recent meeting of the American Immigration Lawyers Association, attended by several Murthy Law Firm attorneys.

Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2) Worldwide

The EB2 category for worldwide, or rest of the world (ROW), is expected to remain current. The projections provided by the DOS only addressed the next three to four months; however, this category historically has remained current.

The DOS continues to observe the results of "upgrading" within the EB2 ROW category by individuals with older priority dates initially granted in the employment-based, third preference (EB3) category. The DOS reports usage of 1,500 to 2,000 visa numbers per month in EB2 ROW from such upgrade cases. While this is not enough of a demand to require a cutoff date, it impacts the availability of excess visa numbers in this category, which would otherwise be made available to EB2 cases from the oversubscribed countries, India and China.

EB2 India

The DOS expects to retrogress the EB2 India category in either November or December. The retrogression is expected to go as far back as early 2005. Once such retrogression occurs, the DOS expects that the EB2 India cutoff date will not advance until approximately June 2015. This is because, even with such extreme retrogression, the DOS expects to continue to see high demand in this category. Even when the cutoff dates retrogressed last year to a 2004 date, the DOS still used approximately 3,000 EB2 visa numbers. This is due to demand from EB3 "upgrade" cases from Indian nationals with earlier priority dates.

The end of the fiscal year is when visa numbers from other categories, which would otherwise not be utilized, can be made available to this category. This is why advancement in June 2015 may be possible. The DOS reports that, for fiscal year 2014 (FY14), approximately 15,000 to 17,000 "extra" numbers were made available to EB2 India. The amount of such excess numbers potentially available towards the end of FY15 depends upon usage and demand levels in the other categories during the fiscal year.

EB2 China

Over the next three to four months, the EB2 China category is expected to advance by approximately three to five weeks each month. This prediction could change, as the demand depends upon the volume of "upgrade" cases from EB3. If the demand increases, the advancement of the EB2 date will slow.

EB3 ROW

The EB3 ROW category has been advancing rapidly in recent months. The reason for this, as explained by Chief Oppenheim, is that the pending demand for visa numbers in this category has been met. The DOS has been able to provide immigrant visa numbers for these pending I-485 adjustment of status cases, filed in the summer of 2007 (when all the categories were current.) With the completion of the 2007 cases, the DOS needed to create greater demand for immigrant visa numbers in the EB3 ROW category. This can be achieved by advancing the cutoff date until such demand materializes. The DOS expects to continue the forward movement of the EB3 ROW cutoff date in upcoming months.

EB3 China

China's EB3 cutoff date is also quite favorable, although it is no longer more favorable than the EB2 China cutoff date, as had been the case previously. Chief Oppenheim expects to be able to continue moving this category forward rapidly in the next few months.

EB3 India

Unfortunately, as expected, the situation for EB3 India is quite different. This category is extremely backlogged with the DOS reporting 25,000 to 30,000 pending immigrant visa requests in the EB3 India queue. This is primarily because of the I-485 filings made in 2007. (This does not include all the EB3 India cases that have not yet made it to the I-485 stage.) As a result of this extraordinarily high demand, the cutoff date in this category is expected to advance by only one to two weeks per month over the next several months.

Employment-Based, Fourth Preference (EB4)

The EB4 category is for "special immigrants," and includes the category of Special Immigrant Juveniles, as well as religious workers. This category is experiencing increased demand. As a result, the DOS expects to establish a cutoff date for EB4 toward the end of FY15 or possibly even fiscal year 2016.

Employment-Based, Fifth Preference (EB5)

The demand for EB5 during FY14 was sufficient for this category to hit its limit of 10,000 for the first time. The majority of the demand within the EB5, immigrant investor category, is from Chinese nationals.

[anuprab]

Courtesy of Murthy http://www.murthy.com/2014/10/08/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-coming-months/

anything new/disappointing in this apart from what we already know I am curious...

[Spectator]

Some takaways from the above (assuming it is reported correctly.


The DOS reports that, for fiscal year 2014 (FY14), approximately 15,000 to 17,000 "extra" numbers were made available to EB2 India.

That would be 18-20k with the initial allocation of 3k.


Even when the cutoff dates retrogressed last year to a 2004 date, the DOS still used approximately 3,000 EB2 visa numbers. This is due to demand from EB3 "upgrade" cases from Indian nationals with earlier priority dates.

Quite a lot for such an early COD.


The DOS reports usage of 1,500 to 2,000 visa numbers per month in EB2 ROW from such upgrade cases.

That seems an awfully high number and isn't supported by the approvals seen. That would be 18-24k porting cases alone. Perhaps his definition of what is an "upgrade" is different.


The EB4 category is for "special immigrants," and includes the category of Special Immigrant Juveniles, as well as religious workers. This category is experiencing increased demand. As a result, the DOS expects to establish a cutoff date for EB4 toward the end of FY15 or possibly even fiscal year 2016.

That would be worrying.

No mention of EB1. That might just be Murthy, or he chose not to talk about it.

[bikenlalan]

If EB2-I received 15k-17k spillover then I think we should see around 20k-22k in the upcoming pending inventory.

July inventory had 31k for EB2-I and this was published in the later half of July, so assuming some spillover had been applied until 7/21 (2000) then we should have 29k.
Taking out another 13k-15k until the end of FY14, we are left with 16k-18k in the inventory.

Add to this people who filed for first time and those who ported, 3k-4k during the date movement, the total pending inventory is around 19k-21k.
Of course if some of the spillover was applied in the beginning of the FY14 then the pending number will be higher.

Considering we have strong headwinds in FY15 for EB2-I as predicted by gurus here, even if we get around 10k visas (SO+ standard allocation), that will take us to end of 2009 by Sep 2015.

We can also expect inventory buildup around Oct/Nov 2015.

[anuprab]

If EB2-I received 15k-17k spillover then I think we should see around 20k-22k in the upcoming pending inventory.

July inventory had 31k for EB2-I and this was published in the later half of July, so assuming some spillover had been applied until 7/21 (2000) then we should have 29k.
Taking out another 13k-15k until the end of FY14, we are left with 16k-18k in the inventory.

Add to this people who filed for first time and those who ported, 3k-4k during the date movement, the total pending inventory is around 19k-21k.
Of course if some of the spillover was applied in the beginning of the FY14 then the pending number will be higher.

Considering we have strong headwinds in FY15 for EB2-I as predicted by gurus here, even if we get around 10k visas (SO+ standard allocation), that will take us to end of 2009 by Sep 2015.

We can also expect inventory buildup around Oct/Nov 2015.

why should there be inventory buildup when are some 19-20k pending in the pipeline...

[CleanSock]

I think the inventory buildup will take place if the pending inventory falls below 10k because historically EB2I has been getting at least 10k spillover visas every year. So, if they have more than 10K in their pipeline then they have less chances of wasting visas that year.



why should there be inventory buildup when are some 19-20k pending in the pipeline...

[bikenlalan]

why should there be inventory buildup when are some 19-20k pending in the pipeline...

By end of next FY, EB2-I should have around 10k pending (+or-) 2k. Although there will be new filers and porters, the demand for that reaches the state dept around 4 months after the date of file.
In order to prevent any wastage of visas for FY16, VO should move the dates to generate demand and get the cases pre-adjudicated as historically EB2-I has received around 12-15k visas on average.
By how much the dates move is anybody's guess.

[vyruss]

So if dates are retrogressed to sometime in 2005, does that mean there will be some visas that are available and anyone before that artificial date is eligible for it? Why cannot they make it "U" instead? How is this date in 2005 set? Any insights??

[qesehmk]

my unnderstanding is that U means no visas are available at all.

Retro means - visas are available for people prior to the retro'd date.
So if dates are retrogressed to sometime in 2005, does that mean there will be some visas that are available and anyone before that artificial date is eligible for it? Why cannot they make it "U" instead? How is this date in 2005 set? Any insights??

[anuprab]

By end of next FY, EB2-I should have around 10k pending (+or-) 2k. Although there will be new filers and porters, the demand for that reaches the state dept around 4 months after the date of file.
In order to prevent any wastage of visas for FY16, VO should move the dates to generate demand and get the cases pre-adjudicated as historically EB2-I has received around 12-15k visas on average.
By how much the dates move is anybody's guess.

thanks for the explanation. I hope that happens as I missed the boat by 3 days with a pd of 05/3/2010. for me any movement is good!

[bikenlalan]

So if dates are retrogressed to sometime in 2005, does that mean there will be some visas that are available and anyone before that artificial date is eligible for it? Why cannot they make it "U" instead? How is this date in 2005 set? Any insights??

They cannot make it "U" at the beginning of the FY, EB2-I gets fresh allocation of 2800 visas, out of which they issue around 200 per month.
As there are sufficient cases prior to sometime in 2005 and to limit the level of porting, they have to retrogress.

[YTeleven]

Looks like it will be tough to get anymore spillover from EB1 & EB5 in future. Read this : LINK (http://www.forbes.com/sites/andyjsemotiuk/2014/10/07/immigration-expert-children-are-being-turned-back-without-due-process/)

[CleanSock]

I am not sure how much to believe this guy. According to the article he is a 'leading U.S immigration attorney who publishes immigration articles' and till now he didn't know about quota in employment based category?
I understand that general American public can have no clue about legal immigration but it is surprising that an immigration attorney didn't know much about it.




Looks like it will be tough to get anymore spillover from EB1 & EB5 in future. Read this : LINK (http://www.forbes.com/sites/andyjsemotiuk/2014/10/07/immigration-expert-children-are-being-turned-back-without-due-process/)

[gcpursuit]

I am not sure how much to believe this guy. According to the article he is a 'leading U.S immigration attorney who publishes immigration articles' and till now he didn't know about quota in employment based category?
I understand that general American public can have no clue about legal immigration but it is surprising that an immigration attorney didn't know much about it.

I don't think he implied that he didn't know about quota. He was alluding to how it may or may not include spouses and kids. That's how I understood it.

[YTeleven]

I don't think he implied that he didn't know about quota. He was alluding to how it may or may not include spouses and kids. That's how I understood it.

TRUE.
What he was saying is that there is no where in the law that dependents should count against the EB quota number: 140,000.
He is also refering to this letter which was sent to President by US law professors : https://pennstatelaw.psu.edu/_file/Law-Professor-Letter.pdf

Overall I see there is a positive and negative news in that article and the positive news is that Obama has a easy task to fix this broken immigration with a small EO and the negative news is that EB2-India will nomore get any spillover from EB1 or EB5 in future.

[Spectator]

TRUE.
What he was saying is that there is no where in the law that dependents should count against the EB quota number: 140,000.INA 245(b) appears to require AOS dependents to count against the preference allocation, since each individual (whether primary or dependent) must currently file a separate I-485. Employment Based applications come under 203(b).


(b) Upon the approval of an application for adjustment made under subsection (a), the Attorney General shall record the alien's lawful admission for permanent residence as of the date the order of the Attorney General approving the application for the adjustment of status is made, and the Secretary of State shall reduce by one the number of the preference visas authorized to be issued under sections 202 and 203 within the class to which the alien is chargeable for the fiscal year then current.

[Fedup14]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-november-2014.html

[Spectator]

The November VB has been released.

EB2-I retrogresses to a COD of 15FEB05.

D. INDIA EMPLOYMENT SECOND PREFERENCE

Increased demand in the INDIA Employment-based Second preference category has required the retrogression of this cut-off date to hold number use within the fiscal year 2015 annual limit.

E. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

Worldwide dates:

F1: Two to three weeks
F2A: Three to five weeks
F2B: Six to eight weeks
F3: One to three weeks
F4: Two or four weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: Three to five weeks
India: No forward movement

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Continued rapid forward movement for the next several months. After such rapid advance of the cut-off date applicant demand for number use, particularly for adjustment of status cases, is expected to increase significantly. Once such demand begins to materialize at a greater rate it will impact this cut-off date situation.

China: Rapid forward movement. Such movement is likely to result in increased demand which may require "corrective" action possibly as early as February.

India: Little if any movement
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date
Philippines: Will remain at the worldwide date. Increased demand may require "corrective" action at some point later in the fiscal year.

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current


The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen during each of the next three months based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.

[qesehmk]

It is interesting and unfortunate to see that CO retrogressed EB2I based on 8 days of data - if that. As I have said earlier - this is going to be a real bad year for EB2I. So people shouldn't expect any miracles.

ROW on the other hand is cruising ahead and the story that YTeleven put forth the other day confirmed - why. Just like EB3IC even EB3ROW is seeing heavy porting.

So as one can see now EB3 as a category is disappearing and most of hte demand is shifting to EB2. Funnily - the reason why demand is shifting to EB2 itself is disappearing. All the extra visas that used to come to EB2 from EB1 and EB5 - are going to dry up - at least this year. That's why I am calling it a bad year.

I just hope I am terribly wrong and one of many things happen - i.e.
1. Suddenly FB spillover is available
2. ROW demand drops.
3. Or better yet Executive Order on family members comes in.

The 3rd one will truly transform EB category. Brace for a tough year friends. My apologies for the tough forecast.

[imdeng]

Hmm... things seem as per expected. No surprises. Winter hibernation begins with the retrogression.

EB3ROW moved by 8 months. That's encouraging. They will cross the high water mark next VB at this speed. Then new inventory, and then Current - and then horizontial spillover to EB3I - How exciting! Something to look forward to in this FY beyond all the gloom and doom coming up everyday.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-november-2014.html

[imdeng]

Q - the current and expected rapid movement in EB3ROW will surely cut down EB3ROW to EB2ROW porting. There may have been significant porting there until last year - but its clear now that it is only a matter of months before EB3ROW waiting vanishes away. So there is no incentive for any new porting from EB3ROW to EB2ROW especially considering the PERM situation.

I would consider the EB3 situation a tailwind. Low porting to EB2ROW and once some horizontal spillover reaches EB3I later this FY, then low porting to EB2I as well.

[imdeng]

This is perhaps too early to worry about it - but we might reach a situation in couple of years when EB3 demand will be less than its quota. Unfortunately, the current law does not provide for any vertical spillover FROM EB3. What will happen to those spare visas if and when we do have spare visas in EB3 category?

Ideally, they should flow up to EB1 - just like EB4 and EB5 spare visas. However, it is my understanding (IIRC Spec posted this some time back) that the current law does not provide for that.

[bikenlalan]

I don't think EB3 visas can go waste in future. It will happen similar to what happened with EB2-C where people downgraded to EB-3. There will be lot more cases in EB-2 than EB-3, very few apply in EB-3 these days.
Even some employers who are applying in EB-3 now to prolong the stay of the employee with the company will then file in EB-2.

[sportsfan33]

This is perhaps too early to worry about it - but we might reach a situation in couple of years when EB3 demand will be less than its quota. Unfortunately, the current law does not provide for any vertical spillover FROM EB3. What will happen to those spare visas if and when we do have spare visas in EB3 category?

Ideally, they should flow up to EB1 - just like EB4 and EB5 spare visas. However, it is my understanding (IIRC Spec posted this some time back) that the current law does not provide for that.

All wasted EB visas --> FB.

We were the beneficiaries of this the last couple of years. If there was a feedback loop within FB in a similar manner, several retrogressed FB categories would have used those 28K visas that instead went to us.

If visas are wasted in EB3, they will unfortunately go to FB. But I think this won't happen due to the number of pending EB3I cases in the next 2-3 years.

[TeddyKoochu]

Folks Nov VB is out and retrogression is back (15-FEB-05).
http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-november-2014.html

[helooo]

Q,Gurus,

Does Gc dream over for me in 2014?

[qesehmk]

Q,Gurus,

Does Gc dream over for me in 2014?
Oh I am sorry ... as far as 2014 is concerned you still have 20 days to go. So you may still get it. So work hard. Followup with USCIS. Harrass them.

[jimmys]

When can we expect Oct '14 inventory? My PD is July 2009 and yet to file I-485. I'm hoping I can file it in FY '15 at least.

[Osaka001]

This is very disappointing to me, I was hoping this year dates would move to second half of 2009, so DOS will moved dates beyond 01-May-2010 in FY'15 to build inventory, so at least we can file I-485 next year. Looks like I have to wait another 2-3 yrs. at least to get EAD or AC21 eligibility. It is very frustrating, I was more conservative as with most post on this forum, but I was little optimistic , when even most conservative Attorney firms stating the date may advance (July/Sept 2010) during 2012.
But the date moved till 01-May-2010, lucky most of people were able to apply I-485 and eligible for AC21.
I am working with Top networking company , with each year layoff, the career/work/life became miserable. To switch other employer, I have to restart the whole GC process PERM & I-140, with delays in PERM processing, my situation may be falling from pan to fire :).

But looks like the more consumption of EB2ROW, no spill over from EB1/EB5 or FB putting dark picture for next year.

I am following this forum last 3-4 yrs, 2-3 times a week, mostly silent viewer.

Thanks you all for your projections and calculations. Sometimes I feel, these numbers are too conservative, but they more are less inline with Reality.

Just want vent my frustration… so I feel relived for this moment .. re focus on my work :).

[Spectator]

When can we expect Oct '14 inventory? My PD is July 2009 and yet to file I-485. I'm hoping I can file it in FY '15 at least.It's usually published around early/mid November.

[Raj0687]

I found this in murthy weekly bulletin..

The DOS reports that, for fiscal year 2014 (FY14), approximately 15,000 to 17,000 "extra" numbers were made available to EB2 India. The amount of such excess numbers potentially available towards the end of FY15 depends upon usage and demand levels in the other categories during the fiscal year.

Does this mean 15 to 17k spill available for next year FY15. Confusing statement though.

[Spectator]

I found this in murthy weekly bulletin..

The DOS reports that, for fiscal year 2014 (FY14), approximately 15,000 to 17,000 "extra" numbers were made available to EB2 India. The amount of such excess numbers potentially available towards the end of FY15 depends upon usage and demand levels in the other categories during the fiscal year.

Does this mean 15 to 17k spill available for next year FY15. Confusing statement though.I'm not sure how that is confusing.

It is saying that:

a) 15-17k SO was available to EB2-I in FY2014 (last year) and that;

b) the amount of SO that will be available to EB2-I in FY2015 (this year) will depend entirely on how many visas other Categories and Countries use in FY2015.

It's not making any statement about how much SO might be available in FY2015.

Reading between the lines, given the comments about other Categories and Countries in the article, you might deduce that the amount of SO in FY2015 is expected to be less than was available in FY2014.

[jimmys]

b) the amount of SO that will be available to EB2-I in FY2015 (this year) will depend entirely on how many visas other Categories and Countries use in FY2015.

It's not making any statement about how much SO might be available in FY2015.

Reading between the lines, given the comments about other Categories and Countries in the article, you might deduce that the amount of SO in FY2015 is expected to be less than was available in FY2014.


That's really scary. The combination of left overs prior to May 1, 2009 and less spillover in FY`15.

[eb2sep09I]

Hello Gurus,
I am pretty much new to the number crunching analysis but have been checking the posts by Spec, Q and all other experts reg EB2 India PD movement.
I guess what I would like to know (even though we just start 2015 fiscal yr) is what's the worst case scenario and best case scenario for EB2 India PD movement?

Thank you

[Spectator]

Hello Gurus,
I am pretty much new to the number crunching analysis but have been checking the posts by Spec, Q and all other experts reg EB2 India PD movement.
I guess what I would like to know (even though we just start 2015 fiscal yr) is what's the worst case scenario and best case scenario for EB2 India PD movement?

Thank youeb2sep09I,

Welcome to the forum.

My initial thoughts are on page 1 of this thread.

Currently, I see no reason to change them. It's likely to be a very difficult year for EB2-I.

[sportsfan33]

Oct 2014 approvals update from trackitt:

Total: 38
TSC - 19
NSC - 19

[Spectator]

Oct 2014 approvals update from trackitt:

Total: 38
TSC - 19
NSC - 19Or you can look here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011) for the figures based on those who have updated their Trackitt profile.

[anuprab]

I am posting here but moderators please feel free to move it. I filed for renewal for ead ap combo in October online. I have been doing this for the last 6 yrs but for the first time I have got a biometrics notice for this time's renewal. I had done my biometrics in 2007 when the dates had opened up. Just curious to know what is going on, is this normal or does it indicate something wrong? I am eb3 2007 India so no such thing as getting current in the near future and hence the question. Thanks

[vizcard]

I am posting here but moderators please feel free to move it. I filed for renewal for ead ap combo in October online. I have been doing this for the last 6 yrs but for the first time I have got a biometrics notice for this time's renewal. I had done my biometrics in 2007 when the dates had opened up. Just curious to know what is going on, is this normal or does it indicate something wrong? I am eb3 2007 India so no such thing as getting current in the near future and hence the question. Thanks

I don't think anything is wrong but I'd definitely call USCIS and ask. You pretty much have to get it done as it very well could have expired.

[Shadowfax4]

Gurus, Senseis and Other Senior Members,

I have been a frequent reader of your posts but I have not posted much. I did see the new VB and read up on all your opinions and calculations. General consensus is, EB2I is facing more headwinds, even from the tail side thus leading to what amounts to be a sh*tty year. I'm sure this is not the first time in recent history that this has happened. So, do bad years generally lead to better ones or do things go from bad to worse and then worst before changing course? Long story short: Can we expect ANYTHING positive in the next FY (FY 2016) for EB2I? If so, (And I know this is asking you to be Nostradamus) what do you see happening? I will take anything I can get with more than just a grain of salt :)

Some days the wait doesn't seem so bad. Then there are those days when you wanna smack BO and the morons on the hill up the head for the lack of rational actions and more importantly: balls..

[anuprab]

Gurus, Senseis and Other Senior Members,

I have been a frequent reader of your posts but I have not posted much. I did see the new VB and read up on all your opinions and calculations. General consensus is, EB2I is facing more headwinds, even from the tail side thus leading to what amounts to be a sh*tty year. I'm sure this is not the first time in recent history that this has happened. So, do bad years generally lead to better ones or do things go from bad to worse and then worst before changing course? Long story short: Can we expect ANYTHING positive in the next FY (FY 2016) for EB2I? If so, (And I know this is asking you to be Nostradamus) what do you see happening? I will take anything I can get with more than just a grain of salt :)

Some days the wait doesn't seem so bad. Then there are those days when you wanna smack BO and the morons on the hill up the head for the lack of rational actions and more importantly: balls..

I agree with you totally. For me it seems like I have been pedaling a bike which is stationary for the last 10 yrs. Everything is on hold in the name of the elusive gc!. I hope things don't turn out to be bad for EB2 India and some miracle happens eg EO or more than expected spillover. since nothing is in our hands I am keeping the faith and hoping something good comes out of all the waiting!

[sportsfan33]

Gurus, Senseis and Other Senior Members,

I have been a frequent reader of your posts but I have not posted much. I did see the new VB and read up on all your opinions and calculations. General consensus is, EB2I is facing more headwinds, even from the tail side thus leading to what amounts to be a sh*tty year. I'm sure this is not the first time in recent history that this has happened. So, do bad years generally lead to better ones or do things go from bad to worse and then worst before changing course? Long story short: Can we expect ANYTHING positive in the next FY (FY 2016) for EB2I? If so, (And I know this is asking you to be Nostradamus) what do you see happening? I will take anything I can get with more than just a grain of salt :)

Some days the wait doesn't seem so bad. Then there are those days when you wanna smack BO and the morons on the hill up the head for the lack of rational actions and more importantly: balls..

Let us recap how EB2I escaped the last 4 years:

2011: Heavy EB2-ROW but amazing spillover from EB1 (almost 16K that year) + almost 7.5K spillover from EB5
2012: Demand cliff. EB2-I received 6K more than it should have.
2013: EB1 and EB2-ROW almost running full, but tremendous FB spillover and some spillover from EB4/5.
2014: EB1 and EB5 almost running full but quite a bit from FB and amazing spillover from EB2-ROW due to PERM slowdowns.

Heading forward:
EB5 is certainly off the table.
EB1 demand seems to be increasing year over year.
EB4 is also off the table.
FB spillover is possibly not there.
EB2-ROW is the only hope. The headwind is heavy PERMs in Q3/4 this year. Tailwind is increased PERM slowdown.

I don't know what to expect this coming year and going forward. It seems a lot of demand from India is shifting to EB1 (I reserve my temptation to use choice words to describe this phenomenon). Other traditionally spillover yielding categories seem to be gobbling up all numbers. However we don't know if it's going to continue in the long or even short term.

Another phenomenon is that with EB3-ROW fast advance, it's possible EB3I may get some spillover numbers and that may reduce porting drastically.

Conclusion: 2015 looks dicey but I won't rule out brighter prospects 2016 onwards.

P.S. The number of approvals in October is alarmingly low. That does not bode well for 2015 as of now.

Edit: EB2I received approximately the following over the last 4 years:
2011: 23K
2012: 17K
2013: 19K
2014: 19-21K (estimated)

So last 4 years, 80K visas have been given out in this category! Minus 12K regular quota, that's a pure spillover of 68K. The spillover is also remarkably similar and it's almost the same in 2 year windows 2011-12 and 2013-14.

Over the last 2 years, pure spillover was almost 34K. 20K of that came from FB and more than 10K came because of PERM slowdowns. You can clearly see that without these two sources, EB2I would be a Titanic by now. EB1/4/5 yielded hardly 5K spillover over the last 2 years by all accounts. These categories are already operating at the edge and are just a small changed dynamic away from retrogression. In EB1, EB1CI will eventually retrogress if left unchecked. EB5 is going to be retrogressed now (confirmed) because of China. I don't know much about EB4 but CO made a specific comment saying that even EB4 was going to see increased demand and possible retrogression.

Unfortunately, if all factors converge together, EB2I will remain retrogressed over the entire FY 2015. That's the worst case scenario. This scenario was actually feared back in early 2013 before Spec came up with the FB spillover news. That was followed by Ted Cruz doing us an indirect favor by shutting down the government and affecting the PERMs in a grand fashion. These two sources have driven the EB2I locomotive the last 2 years.

Let's hope and pray that EB2I has at least positive movement in FY 2015.

[imdeng]

Excellent post Sports. Thank you for taking the time to document past few years so well.

[Shadowfax4]

Let us recap how EB2I escaped the last 4 years:

2011: Heavy EB2-ROW but amazing spillover from EB1 (almost 16K that year) + almost 7.5K spillover from EB5
2012: Demand cliff. EB2-I received 6K more than it should have.
2013: EB1 and EB2-ROW almost running full, but tremendous FB spillover and some spillover from EB4/5.
2014: EB1 and EB5 almost running full but quite a bit from FB and amazing spillover from EB2-ROW due to PERM slowdowns.

Heading forward:
EB5 is certainly off the table.
EB1 demand seems to be increasing year over year.
EB4 is also off the table.
FB spillover is possibly not there.
EB2-ROW is the only hope. The headwind is heavy PERMs in Q3/4 this year. Tailwind is increased PERM slowdown.

I don't know what to expect this coming year and going forward. It seems a lot of demand from India is shifting to EB1 (I reserve my temptation to use choice words to describe this phenomenon). Other traditionally spillover yielding categories seem to be gobbling up all numbers. However we don't know if it's going to continue in the long or even short term.

Another phenomenon is that with EB3-ROW fast advance, it's possible EB3I may get some spillover numbers and that may reduce porting drastically.

Conclusion: 2015 looks dicey but I won't rule out brighter prospects 2016 onwards.

P.S. The number of approvals in October is alarmingly low. That does not bode well for 2015 as of now.

Edit: EB2I received approximately the following over the last 4 years:
2011: 23K
2012: 17K
2013: 19K
2014: 19-21K (estimated)

So last 4 years, 80K visas have been given out in this category! Minus 12K regular quota, that's a pure spillover of 68K. The spillover is also remarkably similar and it's almost the same in 2 year windows 2011-12 and 2013-14.

Over the last 2 years, pure spillover was almost 34K. 20K of that came from FB and more than 10K came because of PERM slowdowns. You can clearly see that without these two sources, EB2I would be a Titanic by now. EB1/4/5 yielded hardly 5K spillover over the last 2 years by all accounts. These categories are already operating at the edge and are just a small changed dynamic away from retrogression. In EB1, EB1CI will eventually retrogress if left unchecked. EB5 is going to be retrogressed now (confirmed) because of China. I don't know much about EB4 but CO made a specific comment saying that even EB4 was going to see increased demand and possible retrogression.Unfortunately, if all factors converge together, EB2I will remain retrogressed over the entire FY 2015. That's the worst case scenario. This scenario was actually feared back in early 2013 before Spec came up with the FB spillover news. That was followed by Ted Cruz doing us an indirect favor by shutting down the government and affecting the PERMs in a grand fashion. These two sources have driven the EB2I locomotive the last 2 years.

Let's hope and pray that EB2I has at least positive movement in FY 2015.

Sportsfan,

Kudos on the great post and for the explanation! We are literally 2 weeks into FY2015 and I've given up hopes for this year. I was looking for insights into FY2016, but when FY2015 by itself is a crap shoot, I don't think it's fair to expect predictions from anybody this early! :) On the flip side, PERM has continually been slow since the Cruz-down of last year even though the economy has picked up marginally. Wishing for that to continue is the same as wishing ill upon your own brethren because hey! they're waiting in line just like we did. But we have little to no choice in this issue. Hope The President can step up and do something for the legal immigrants this year/early next.

[anuprab]

It seems like I wake up every day with one or other nightmare and feel I am never going to get greened. I have a question and need help from experts. MY husband's perm was filed with location as NYC. His office changed to a different address but still in NYC. Will this require a new PERM to be filed again ?

[EB2IndSep09]

It seems like I wake up every day with one or other nightmare and feel I am never going to get greened. I have a question and need help from experts. MY husband's perm was filed with location as NYC. His office changed to a different address but still in NYC. Will this require a new PERM to be filed again ?

It all depends on if the new address falls under the same Metropolitan Statistical Area. Even if the new address is 15-20 miles away, sometimes it would fall into another MSA which needs a new PERM to be filed.
This is not my knowledge but that's what I have been told by Fragomen recently as I bumped into the same issue.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

[anuprab]

It all depends on if the new address falls under the same Metropolitan Statistical Area. Even if the new address is 15-20 miles away, sometimes it would fall into another MSA which needs a new PERM to be filed.
This is not my knowledge but that's what I have been told by Fragomen recently as I bumped into the same issue.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_metropolitan_area

Thanks I hope we don't have to do it again. It just moved from Broadway in NYC to SoHo NYC.

[redwood]

Let us recap how EB2I escaped the last 4 years:

That was followed by Ted Cruz doing us an indirect favor by shutting down the government and affecting the PERMs in a grand fashion.

I disagree with this statement. Ted Cruz indirectly did us a great disfavor, not a favor. If he did not shutdown the Government, then there would have been no new budget deal and sequestration would have been in effect. PERMs would have further slowed down to a trickle (compared to 2013) and more spillover would have accrued to EB2I in 2014. We would have been looking at atleast Jan 2010 EB2I by now.

[vizcard]

Thanks I hope we don't have to do it again. It just moved from Broadway in NYC to SoHo NYC.

Broadway is a loooonnnng road so "Broadway in NYC" is not saying much .. unless of course you meant the Theater district. Regardless, i'm almost certain there's no need for a new PERM. :)

[Spectator]

sportsfan,

Excellent post.

Some comments (not a lot, because you were so comprehensive).


Over the last 2 years, pure spillover was almost 34K. 20K of that came from FB and more than 10K came because of PERM slowdowns.

6k of that SO was over and above what pure spillover would have allowed (2k in FY2012 and 4k in FY2013). It resulted from EB2-I effectively using EB3 quota and the overuse of EB as a whole in FY2013.


In EB1, EB1CI will eventually retrogress if left unchecked.

It would not just be EB1C-I.

There are no sub allocations within EB1, so all of EB1-I would retrogress.

In addition, since they are also using numbers above 7%, EB1-C would also have to retrogress.

It's interesting that CO made a comment about EB4, since he never usually mentions it.

If use in EB4 is increasing (and finally has to retrogress), the current demand pattern would virtually guarantee retrogression (admittedly very late in the FY) of EB1-IC in the absence of FB visas. The demand last year appears to have been well in excess of the 40k normally available. EB1 had 43k available last year (plus EB4/EB5 spare visas) - maybe 46-47k in total, so retrogression was never likely. EB5 spare visas have already disappeared and a loss of the EB4 contribution to EB1 could be bad news for them. 40k may no longer be sufficient.

It's interesting that there have been so many EB1C approvals at the beginning of the year. It almost suggests they were held back so as not to count against the FY2014 numbers (takes off tin foil hat).


Approvals at the beginning of the year have been slower than normal for all Categories (not just EB2-I), other than EB1. I wonder why USCIS are being so lethargic. The Cut Off Dates in effect should be producing far more approvals.

[anuprab]

Broadway is a loooonnnng road so "Broadway in NYC" is not saying much .. unless of course you meant the Theater district. Regardless, i'm almost certain there's no need for a new PERM. :)

yes vizcard thanks so much. it was on 7th Avenue. Soho and 7th should be same MSA! In fact when I researched the NYC MSA area is pretty big. I think I am going crazy. The office changed maybe 9 months back and here I am getting up one fine day and thinking does he need a new PERM and if he does we are screwed. Some days I get nightmare that I missed filing my EAD on time...such is life while waiting for a greencard!

[vizcard]

yes vizcard thanks so much. it was on 7th Avenue. Soho and 7th should be same MSA! In fact when I researched the NYC MSA area is pretty big. I think I am going crazy. The office changed maybe 9 months back and here I am getting up one fine day and thinking does he need a new PERM and if he does we are screwed. Some days I get nightmare that I missed filing my EAD on time...such is life while waiting for a greencard!

My rule was "when in doubt, email the lawyers". Let them earn their $1000 / hr fee. I used to contact them so much that the paralegal assigned to my case used to talk about vacations we took :)

[Kanmani]

Viz,

This is a simple question which would cost her only $150 for a single consultation with Murthy :)

anu, you are good at this point of time, companies are allowed to shift premises within the same metropolitan area without affecting the immigration processes.

[EB2IndSep09]

My rule was "when in doubt, email the lawyers". Let them earn their $1000 / hr fee. I used to contact them so much that the paralegal assigned to my case used to talk about vacations we took :)

Agree with the thumb rule Viz mentioned. It has been the situation for me from past 3 months if I had to consult lawyers outside. But last night the law firm made it official for me that they need to restart my PERM as the new office location is in the same state 25 miles away from the existing office but different MSA. As employer and the law firm employer chooses would have control over PERM, you cannot argue much on the route they want to take in these situations. To my situation, I had to accept the situation and move forward. My 2 cents are do not loose your sleep on this till the time the law firm confirms anything.

[anuprab]

Agree with the thumb rule Viz mentioned. It has been the situation for me from past 3 months if I had to consult lawyers outside. But last night the law firm made it official for me that they need to restart my PERM as the new office location is in the same state 25 miles away from the existing office but different MSA. As employer and the law firm employer chooses would have control over PERM, you cannot argue much on the route they want to take in these situations. To my situation, I had to accept the situation and move forward. My 2 cents are do not loose your sleep on this till the time the law firm confirms anything.

Thanks you all. I did email my lawyer not my husband's don't ask me why(the greencard discussion always results in a fight between us :() but for now we are good. Broadway in Manhattan and Soho are same MSA for now..ha. You all are right and usually I email the lawyer but the paranoid women breed that I am, I also post on forums to get a quick response. Again thanks for all the responses, appreciate the valuable inputs here.

[suninphx]

Is there any EAD/AP renewal 101 available on our blog? Thank you.

[vizcard]

Is there any EAD/AP renewal 101 available on our blog? Thank you.

I don't think so. But here's one on Trackitt -> Trackitt Link (http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussion-forums/i765/1436910277/ead-ap-renewal-detailed-guide)

You could also just check the USCIS site for instructions on the respective forms.
EAD (http://www.uscis.gov/i-765)
AP (http://www.uscis.gov/i-131)

[bikenlalan]

Oct 2014 approvals update from trackitt:

Total: 63
TSC - 26
NSC - 37

Approvals have picked up slightly since the 15th. Out of 63 approved, 13 are new filers since 7/1/2014.

[suninphx]

I don't think so. But here's one on Trackitt -> Trackitt Link (http://www.trackitt.com/uk-discussion-forums/i765/1436910277/ead-ap-renewal-detailed-guide)

You could also just check the USCIS site for instructions on the respective forms.
EAD (http://www.uscis.gov/i-765)
AP (http://www.uscis.gov/i-131)

Thnaks Viz.

[Spectator]

According to AILA, there has been a recent meeting (October 15, 2014) - one of the monthly meetings scheduled - with CO regarding Visa Bulletin progress.


10/20/2014 Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (10/15/2014)

DOS Liaison Committee series of monthly “check-ins” with Charlie Oppenheim, designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections, beyond the basic visa availability updates provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.

AILA Doc. No. 14071401.

Hopefully, the information from this meeting will become available on the usual websites shortly.

[helooo]

Gurus,Q,

Suddenly my 485 status say "your case information is incomplete within the Case Status Online.For further assistance call the no ....".It was in acceptance in the morning.I had congressional inquiry on 14th Oct.

[YTeleven]

According to AILA, there has been a recent meeting (October 15, 2014) - one of the monthly meetings scheduled - with CO regarding Visa Bulletin progress.



Hopefully, the information from this meeting will become available on the usual websites shortly.

Looks like one report got out here :
http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8296-VISA-BULLETIN-PROJECTIONS-FOR-THE-NEXT-FEW-MONTHS

[Spectator]

Thanks YT.

I wasn't expecting anything new for FY2015. I was hoping he might leak some information about the numbers used in FY2014. It would be useful to know roughly how many EB1 used, as well as EB2-ROW/M/P and EB4. He previously mentioned some rough figures for EB2-I and we can probably guess that EB5 was somewhere around the maximum allocation available to them.

[YTeleven]

PERM stats released for FY14-Q4 :
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2014_Q4.pdf

PERM backlog still pending as of 30-Sep-2014 : 59,901.

Total PERM certified for ALL in FY13 was : 35.188
Total PERM certified for INDIA alone in FY14 : 35,092

India is growing like anything. At the current rate of spillovers the people who are filing in EB2-I NOW will have to wait till 2024 to get the GCs.
This is the reason I was suggesting to consider downgrading or filing in EB3-I for all EB2-I whose PDs are from FY12.

Hoping that BO will do something in EO.

[Spectator]

PERM stats released for FY14-Q4 :
http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2014_Q4.pdf

PERM backlog still pending as of 30-Sep-2014 : 59,901.

Total PERM certified for ALL in FY13 was : 35.188
Total PERM certified for INDIA alone in FY14 : 35,092

India is growing like anything. At the current rate of spillovers the people who are filing in EB2-I NOW will have to wait till 2024 to get the GCs.
This is the reason I was suggesting to consider downgrading or filing in EB3-I for all EB2-I whose PDs are from FY12.

Hoping that BO will do something in EO.YT,

Thanks. I noticed they hadn't been updated earlier.

The figures are a good fit to the unofficial figures I published.

PERM received (74,936) represents a 3.4% increase on FY2013.

The pending number is quite worrying. It hovered around 60k for all of FY2014, despite a very productive OFLC and a reduction in processing times in FY2014. It was reduced to about 20k at the end of FY2011 and is now approaching the 67k it reached at the end of FY2009.

I can't guess the level it will reach if OFLC do in fact double the processing times as their FY2015 plan calls for.

The India figure is a little deceptive, since OFLC certified 78% more cases in FY2014 compared to FY2013. In FY2014, India represented 56.0% of certified cases, compared to 59.5% in FY2013. I do agree that % that India represents has increased markedly over the last 5 years.

[helooo]

Q,Spec,

I am first time filer and today my case transferred to local office.What that means?I had initiated congressional inquiry.

[civilengineer]

helooo,
They might have a lot of applications at TSC and so may be doing load balancing. You might get an interview.
https://www.google.com/search?q=case+transferred+to+local+office

[helooo]

helooo,
They might have a lot of applications at TSC and so may be doing load balancing. You might get an interview.
https://www.google.com/search?q=case+transferred+to+local+office

But if the interview is after Nov 1st and everything goes well.Will they issue the GC as dates will retrogress.

[civilengineer]

Reading similar discussions on Trackitt etc from that google search, many of them were told no GC as numbers are not available. Depends on the interview date I guess and also if they allocated a number already. Who knows?

[qesehmk]

heloo

I am not a lawyer. So take my "guess" for what it's worth.

I think xfer to local office may mean an in person interview. I hope it takes place and you get done with. Do keep us updated.


Q,Spec,

I am first time filer and today my case transferred to local office.What that means?I had initiated congressional inquiry.

[eb2ODer]

I read you all everyday... and thought of you guys when the unexpected happened.

My PD is in 06/2011. My spouse's department is going to be dissolved and he is losing his job, right when his PERM was going to be filed. He is looking for a job right now but his 6th year H1B will be expiring in Oct 2015. After applying the months that he was out of the country for, he is eligible to extend the H1B to Jan 2016.

My queries:
1) What are the chances of being able to obtain EAD for 06/2011 PD before Jan 2016?
2) How long is it taking from initiation of PERM filing to I-140 approval in EB2 India category?
3) What should be his current plan of action to be able to qualify for H1B extension before Jan 2016?

PS: Please relocate this thread as per forum rules when appropriate..

[Kanmani]

I read you all everyday... and thought of you guys when the unexpected happened.

My PD is in 06/2011. My spouse's department is going to be dissolved and he is losing his job, right when his PERM was going to be filed. He is looking for a job right now but his 6th year H1B will be expiring in Oct 2015. After applying the months that he was out of the country for, he is eligible to extend the H1B to Jan 2016.

My queries:
1) What are the chances of being able to obtain EAD for 06/2011 PD before Jan 2016?
2) How long is it taking from initiation of PERM filing to I-140 approval in EB2 India category?
3) What should be his current plan of action to be able to qualify for H1B extension before Jan 2016?

PS: Please relocate this thread as per forum rules when appropriate..

1. 10%
2. In general, companies do not initiate GC processing in the first year of employment. Assuming they start in the first year, initiation to perm filing takes 6 months + filing to perm approval at the current pace takes 8 months, a total of 14 months.
3. He may need to convert to H-4 for some time until his perm is pending for 365 days to extend his H1B.

[TeddyKoochu]

I read you all everyday... and thought of you guys when the unexpected happened.

My PD is in 06/2011. My spouse's department is going to be dissolved and he is losing his job, right when his PERM was going to be filed. He is looking for a job right now but his 6th year H1B will be expiring in Oct 2015. After applying the months that he was out of the country for, he is eligible to extend the H1B to Jan 2016.

My queries:
1) What are the chances of being able to obtain EAD for 06/2011 PD before Jan 2016?
2) How long is it taking from initiation of PERM filing to I-140 approval in EB2 India category?
3) What should be his current plan of action to be able to qualify for H1B extension before Jan 2016?

PS: Please relocate this thread as per forum rules when appropriate..

I believe he has a decent shot at EAD next year Oct - Dec 2015, I would say 50-50. This is based on the assumption that the majority of the current 485 filers till May 2010 will get approved by Sep 2015 and then the next intake should happen between Oct - Dec 2015. If the new intake happens you should definitely be in. Its still very early days in this year, good luck.

[jimmys]

I read you all everyday... and thought of you guys when the unexpected happened.

My PD is in 06/2011. My spouse's department is going to be dissolved and he is losing his job, right when his PERM was going to be filed. He is looking for a job right now but his 6th year H1B will be expiring in Oct 2015. After applying the months that he was out of the country for, he is eligible to extend the H1B to Jan 2016.

My queries:
1) What are the chances of being able to obtain EAD for 06/2011 PD before Jan 2016?
2) How long is it taking from initiation of PERM filing to I-140 approval in EB2 India category?
3) What should be his current plan of action to be able to qualify for H1B extension before Jan 2016?

PS: Please relocate this thread as per forum rules when appropriate..


1. Chances are pretty slim. Don't solely rely on this at any cost. June 2011 in Jan 2016 looks far-fetched one at least this point of time.

2. There are no country wise categories or EB2/EB3 categories in PERM. PERM is processed individually irrespective of the country and category. The PERM preparation process (Advertisement, interview, SWA whatnot) is about 6 months (could be less if your company HR/lawyers are proactive) and approval is another 8-10 months(Could be lesser too). In total anywhere between 12-16 months depending on circumstances.

3. To extend H-1B beyond 6 years, a) Your PERM should have been filed 365 days prior to your H-1B expiry. In this case you're eligible for 1 year H-1B extension irrespective of your PERM status (Even if it's in audit after a denial or so). b) If your PERM was filed inside of 365 days then you need to have your I-140 approved to go for H-1B extension beyond 6 years. c) If your PERM was filed inside 365 days of your H-1B expiry then you need to wait for either PERM + I-140 approval or 1 year since filing of your PERM.

[itsmusa]

Impact of salary on I-485

Gurus, please advise.

My PERM prevailing wages are 12X.
As I was out of US during Jan and first week of Feb, I was expecting total wages to be 11X during 2014.
Everything was going good until now, however my employer suddenly changed the way he deposits salary and now I am scheduled to get 10X during 2014 (i.e. 2014 W2 would show only 10X salary).

In Mar-15, when my I-485 would be pending for more than 180 days, I am planning to invoke AC21 and go to another prospective employer. My question is how this 10X salary shown on 2014 W2 would impact me in future.

[Kanmani]

Impact of salary on I-485

Gurus, please advise.

My PERM prevailing wages are 12X.
As I was out of US during Jan and first week of Feb, I was expecting total wages to be 11X during 2014.
Everything was going good until now, however my employer suddenly changed the way he deposits salary and now I am scheduled to get 10X during 2014 (i.e. 2014 W2 would show only 10X salary).

In Mar-15, when my I-485 would be pending for more than 180 days, I am planning to invoke AC21 and go to another prospective employer. My question is how this 10X salary shown on 2014 W2 would impact me in future.

The Salary mentioned in the perm is the amount of prevailing wage that the employer has accepted to pay the candidate upon receiving the GC.

Note that the GC is always for future employment, in other words, the description of job duties and salary kick start into reality only after the GC card is received.

It may take years to get GC in hand, meanwhile, the prevailing wage may sky rocket for the same position. But what described in the perm holds tight with respect to the employer.

When you move jobs, make sure your offered wage matches that of what is noted in the perm ( or above).

[itsmusa]

Thank you Kanmani...

For smaller consulting firms as in my case, lawyer told the employer that I must be paid the prevailing wages from the date PERM is filed to show "ability to pay" throughout the process. With only 10X shown on 2014 W-2, wouldn't USCIS come back or could they come back after me once I invoke AC-21 and join another employer who would pay me higher than PERM prevailing wages. I would not like to get I-485 in trouble due to this salary issue.

[Kanmani]

Thank you Kanmani...

For smaller consulting firms as in my case, lawyer told the employer that I must be paid the prevailing wages from the date PERM is filed to show "ability to pay" throughout the process. With only 10K shown on 2014 W-2, wouldn't USCIS come back or could they come back after me once I invoke AC-21 and join another employer who would pay me higher than PERM prevailing wages. I would not like to get I-485 in trouble due to this salary issue.

itsmusa,

I don't know your actual salary, your first post confuses me to get the scenario. Anyway, you are not expected to display your salary here.

As an example if your salary in the payroll is 80K, but for the same position the salary described in the perm is 90k is always ok until receiving the GC.

I don't know why you endup with a less salary like 10k for the whole year. This might cause questions on whether your job offer is genuine at all. As I said earlier, Gc is for the future position, you may consult an attorney on the prospects of avoiding any potential issues while avail ing AC21 provisions. Good Luck!

[helooo]

heloo

I am not a lawyer. So take my "guess" for what it's worth.

I think xfer to local office may mean an in person interview. I hope it takes place and you get done with. Do keep us updated.

Hello Q,
Received a notice today which says that "this courtesy notice is to advise you of action taken on this case. the official notice has been mailed to the authorized representative.
Any relevant documentation included in the notice was also mailed as part of the official notice.
Preliminary processing of the above application of petition has been completed, and it has been transferred to the uscis office at:
XXXXXX
That office will notify you when they schedule an interview on the application or petition. any further inquiries should be made to that office.
Anybody knows what "Preliminary processing of the above application of petition has been completed" means

Is it good/bad?

[sportsfan33]

itsmusa,

I don't know your actual salary, your first post confuses me to get the scenario. Anyway, you are not expected to display your salary here.

As an example if your salary in the payroll is 80K, but for the same position the salary described in the perm is 90k is always ok until receiving the GC.

I don't know why you endup with a less salary like 10k for the whole year. This might cause questions on whether your job offer is genuine at all. As I said earlier, Gc is for the future position, you may consult an attorney on the prospects of avoiding any potential issues while avail ing AC21 provisions. Good Luck!

I think he meant 10X, where X is the monthly salary.

He seemed to be saying that suppose the salary described in the PERM is P, then X = P/12. He was going to get paid 11X but it was OK since he was on vacation for one month. However for some reason, he is now getting paid 10X and he was worried about it.

In any case, as kanmani described, GC is for future employment, so the salary described in PERM should be given upon the GC receipt. However, if you change the job using AC21, make sure you are getting the salary in PERM.

[itsmusa]

@sportsfan33 - thanks, that is exactly what I meant.

@Kanmani - sorry for the confusion. I updated 10K to 10X.

[EB2IndSep09]

Impact of salary on I-485

Gurus, please advise.

My PERM prevailing wages are 12X.
As I was out of US during Jan and first week of Feb, I was expecting total wages to be 11X during 2014.
Everything was going good until now, however my employer suddenly changed the way he deposits salary and now I am scheduled to get 10X during 2014 (i.e. 2014 W2 would show only 10X salary).

In Mar-15, when my I-485 would be pending for more than 180 days, I am planning to invoke AC21 and go to another prospective employer. My question is how this 10X salary shown on 2014 W2 would impact me in future.

I think you missed the valid, obvious reason here. You were out of country for more than a month and it is your employer who changed the policy which will make you to receive less than expected 12X. I guess the policy is to hold a month's salary or 15 days salary which is expected from smaller consulting firms.
My observation is smaller consulting firms would try to match up the amount (even when employees are on bench) towards the end of the year so that they do not want the case to be questioned later which could come back and bite them. Even if they are not doing that my advise is save all the pay stubs which would have the period of pay to make a case from your side if USCIS questions you in later date.

[itsmusa]

@EB2IndSep09 - thanks, yes, I am aware of these things. My lawyer already told me this would probably not be an issue in the future. However my question was whether someone from us have experience/s USCIS coming after us for such thing in future.

[eb2ODer]

@Kanmani, TeddyKoochu, Jimmys,
Thanks for your responses! I was hoping I would hear something magically better than I knew. Ofcourse always can count on you guys to be supportive but grounded in reality.

[Spectator]

Sadly, for many, October is now history.

Here's some observations.

From the Trackitt numbers, it looks very much that CO has used somewhere around the quarterly allocation of 757 for EB2 in October.

That's probably in line with his rather pessimistic and conservative statements.

PERM Certifications in October, at 5.3k, were around the same (103%) of the monthly average seen for Q4 FY2014.

ROW and WW certifications mirrored that number.

[imdeng]

Anybody knows the details of the process for reverse porting (e.g. EB2C to EB3C, which apparently is happening in decent numbers)? Does that also require a PERM like EB3I to EB2I porting does? Is the process difficult or easy? Takes significant time or no?

Also, I hereby proclaim FY2015 as the year of EB3. I am looking forward to the next VB not for anything in EB2 but for all the good stuff that is likely to happen in EB3. The whole drama with EB2C reverse porting, very low inventory and hence coming inventory building in EB3ROW, demand destruction in EB3P... Wow!

Happy Nov everyone. Another month closer to the spillover season :-)

[vizcard]

Anybody knows the details of the process for reverse porting (e.g. EB2C to EB3C, which apparently is happening in decent numbers)? Does that also require a PERM like EB3I to EB2I porting does? Is the process difficult or easy? Takes significant time or no?

Also, I hereby proclaim FY2015 as the year of EB3. I am looking forward to the next VB not for anything in EB2 but for all the good stuff that is likely to happen in EB3. The whole drama with EB2C reverse porting, very low inventory and hence coming inventory building in EB3ROW, demand destruction in EB3P... Wow!

Happy Nov everyone. Another month closer to the spillover season :-)

i would assume its the exact same process. No reason it should be different.

[Spectator]

Anybody knows the details of the process for reverse porting (e.g. EB2C to EB3C, which apparently is happening in decent numbers)? Does that also require a PERM like EB3I to EB2I porting does? Is the process difficult or easy? Takes significant time or no?

Also, I hereby proclaim FY2015 as the year of EB3. I am looking forward to the next VB not for anything in EB2 but for all the good stuff that is likely to happen in EB3. The whole drama with EB2C reverse porting, very low inventory and hence coming inventory building in EB3ROW, demand destruction in EB3P... Wow!

Happy Nov everyone. Another month closer to the spillover season :-)imdeng,

The general consensus is that a new PERM would not be required to submit a new I-140 under EB3.

The general consensus is also that PP would not be available for the new I-140.

http://nairlaw.com/blog/posts/12
http://www.sumnerimmigration.com/immigration-blog/business-based-immigration/2013/12/december-2013-visa-bulletin-china-and-the-eb-2eb-3-categories-is-a-downgrade-possible/
http://www.immigration-visa-lawyer-blog.com/2013/12/a-unique-opportunity-for-chine.html

I'm pretty sure I have seen a USCIS answer from an AILA liaison meeting confirming this.

In a traditional EB3-EB2 porting scenario, it is very unlikely that the original PERM obtained for the EB3 I-140 would meet the Advanced Degree or Bachelors plus 5 years requirement needed to also file an I-140 under EB2. In that case, a new PERM with minimum requirements meeting the EB2 threshold would be required.

In a reverse porting EB2-EB3 scenario, the original PERM would also support an EB3 I-140 under EB3-Professional (Bachelors) or EB3-Skilled Worker (2 years training or experience).

[imdeng]

That makes sense. So reverse porting is relatively easier to do than regular "upgrade" porting. Good to know. Who knows - we might all be reverse porting into EB3I couple years from now :-)


...
In a reverse porting EB2-EB3 scenario, the original PERM would also support an EB3 I-140 under EB3-Professional (Bachelors) or EB3-Skilled Worker (2 years training or experience).

[Kanmani]

imdeng,

The general consensus is that a new PERM would not be required to submit a new I-140 under EB3.

The general consensus is also that PP would not be available for the new I-140.

http://nairlaw.com/blog/posts/12
http://www.sumnerimmigration.com/immigration-blog/business-based-immigration/2013/12/december-2013-visa-bulletin-china-and-the-eb-2eb-3-categories-is-a-downgrade-possible/
http://www.immigration-visa-lawyer-blog.com/2013/12/a-unique-opportunity-for-chine.html

I'm pretty sure I have seen a USCIS answer from an AILA liaison meeting confirming this.

In a traditional EB3-EB2 porting scenario, it is very unlikely that the original PERM obtained for the EB3 I-140 would meet the Advanced Degree or Bachelors plus 5 years requirement needed to also file an I-140 under EB2. In that case, a new PERM with minimum requirements meeting the EB2 threshold would be required.

In a reverse porting EB2-EB3 scenario, the original PERM would also support an EB3 I-140 under EB3-Professional (Bachelors) or EB3-Skilled Worker (2 years training or experience).


I agree that there is no requirement of new perm for downgrading to eb3.

No offence to the down graders, but there is a group is objecting this practice, you might have come across, saying that the 'original' perm is eligible for I-140 filing for a certain period of time say 90 days (not sure), once 90 days are over, the perm status is expired.

The objection is on approving a new I-140 on a expired perm which sounds correct and lawful to me, what do you think Spec?

[gcq]

It may not be possible to re-use EB2 perm for downgrading to EB3.

When looking from I-140/I-485 perspective one may think EB2 Perm can be re-used for EB3 as EB2 perm holder has a higher qualification than a regular EB3 guy. However looking from a PERM perspective, EB2 perm cannot be used for EB3 as EB2 perm eliminates lot of prospective US citizens from the job based on the job requirement for EB2 ( like 5 years experience after undergrad). However EB3 perm cannot have that higher requirement. So EB2 perm will be a no-no for EB3.

[MATT2012]

I agree that there is no requirement of new perm for downgrading to eb3.

No offence to the down graders, but there is a group is objecting this practice, you might have come across, saying that the 'original' perm is eligible for I-140 filing for a certain period of time say 90 days (not sure), once 90 days are over, the perm status is expired.

The objection is on approving a new I-140 on a expired perm which sounds correct and lawful to me, what do you think Spec?

Kanmani,

http://www.visatopia.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Multiple-I-140s-Priority-Date-Retention-2.pdf

The link could help with the discussion.

[Kanmani]

It may not be possible to re-use EB2 perm for downgrading to EB3.

When looking from I-140/I-485 perspective one may think EB2 Perm can be re-used for EB3 as EB2 perm holder has a higher qualification than a regular EB3 guy. However looking from a PERM perspective, EB2 perm cannot be used for EB3 as EB2 perm eliminates lot of prospective US citizens from the job based on the job requirement for EB2 ( like 5 years experience after undergrad). However EB3 perm cannot have that higher requirement. So EB2 perm will be a no-no for EB3.


Currently it is in practice, Chinese are downgrading their eb2 to eb3 without a perm. As Spec mentioned, I have seen that AILA- USCIS exchange, don't know where to locate now.

PS: Thanks Matt :)

[Spectator]

It may not be possible to re-use EB2 perm for downgrading to EB3.

When looking from I-140/I-485 perspective one may think EB2 Perm can be re-used for EB3 as EB2 perm holder has a higher qualification than a regular EB3 guy. However looking from a PERM perspective, EB2 perm cannot be used for EB3 as EB2 perm eliminates lot of prospective US citizens from the job based on the job requirement for EB2 ( like 5 years experience after undergrad). However EB3 perm cannot have that higher requirement. So EB2 perm will be a no-no for EB3.gcq,

As far as I m concerned, there is no such thing as an EB2 PERM (or EB3 PERM for that matter). The PERM is basically just a statement of the minimum requirements for the job, the wage to be paid for that job and attesting that no US Citizen or LPR holder was available to fill the position.

The question of whether it meets the minimum requirements for EB2 or EB3 is only a matter that USCIS can determine. USCIS are looking at:

a) Do the minimum requirements in the certified PERM qualify for the Category requested in the I-140?

b) Does the beneficiary possess the minimum requirements for the Category requested in the I-140?

USCIS often make this point in AAO decisions. e.g. in this decision (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/err/B5%20-%20Members%20of%20the%20Professions%20holding%20Ad vanced%20Degrees%20or%20Aliens%20of%20Exceptional% 20Ability/Decisions_Issued_in_2014/SEP302014_02B5203.pdf):


It is noted that, although DOL certified the ETA Form 9089, its role is limited to determining whether there are sufficient workers who are able, willing qualified and available, and whether the employment of the alien will adversely affect the wages and working conditions of workers in the United States similarly employed. Section 212(a)(5)(A)(i) ofthe Act; 20 C.F.R. § 656.1(a).

It is left to USCIS to determine whether the offered position and the beneficiary qualify for the requested preference classification, and whether the beneficiary satisfies the minimum requirements of the offered position as set forth on the labor certification.



There is no doubt that the authority to make preference classification decisions rests with INS. The language of section 204 cannot be read otherwise. See Castaneda-Gonzalez v. INS, 564 F.2d 417, 429 (D.C. Cir. 1977). In tum, DOL has the authority to make the two determinations listed in section 212(a)(14).

The necessary result of these two grants of authority is that section 212(a)(l4) determinations are not subject to review by INS absent fraud or willful misrepresentation, but all matters relating to preference classification eligibility not expressly delegated to DOL remain within INS' authority.

Given the language of the Act, the totality of the legislative history, and the agencies' own interpretations of their duties under the Act, we must conclude that Congress did not intend DOL to have primary authority to make any determinations other than the two stated in section 212(a)(14). If DOL is to analyze alien qualifications, it is for the purpose of "matching" them with those of corresponding United States workers so that it will then be "in a position to meet the requirement of the law," namely the section 212(a)(14) determinations.

Madany v. Smith, 696 F.2d 1008, 1012-1013 (D.C. Cir. 1983).

or in more detail in this decision (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/err/B5%20-%20Members%20of%20the%20Professions%20holding%20Ad vanced%20Degrees%20or%20Aliens%20of%20Exceptional% 20Ability/Decisions_Issued_in_2014/OCT092014_01B5203.pdf) in the section titled "The Roles of the DOL and USCIS in the Immigrant Visa Process".

Just because a PERM certification may satisfy the requirements to file under EB2 does not compel the I-140 to be filed under that Category.

Applicants for the position would still have to meet the requirements of the PERM, so it eliminated nobody if the I-140 was filed under EB3 rather than EB2.

The job has not changed, the minimum requirements have not changed, nor has the PW that must be paid for it.

What you touch on is the objection that some EB3 have to the practice, since an EB3 number will be used for a job that no "ordinary EB3 qualified" person could apply for due to the minimum requirements of the PERM.

To answer Kanmani's query, a PERM only becomes invalid if it is not used to support an I-140 filing within 180 days of certification. Once that condition is met, it remains valid for further I-140 filings against it.

[arnab222]

Hello Teddy , Q and old timers ,

I had abandoned my GC in late 2011 and returned to India due to some emergency health issues of some family members. Then had a PD of June 2007 in EB2. Working in India now as a senior architect in a semiconductor company and have restarted the process with PERM process last week. I am planning to port my I140 PD from EB2 2007 to the new I-140 to be filed.My profile is that of a Senior architect with 4 individual patents(single inventor).

Do I have a reasonable chance of a consular interview in 2015 ? Any risks that you see ? I see delays in PERM labor adjucation as a problem of me missing the window when my PD would be current.

[qesehmk]

Arnab - welcome to forum. I think you do have a good chance in late 2015. The dates have already retroed in 2005 but they should spring back in Q4. Good luck.


Hello Teddy , Q and old timers ,

I had abandoned my GC in late 2011 and returned to India due to some emergency health issues of some family members. Then had a PD of June 2007 in EB2. Working in India now as a senior architect in a semiconductor company and have restarted the process with PERM process last week. I am planning to port my I140 PD from EB2 2007 to the new I-140 to be filed.My profile is that of a Senior architect with 4 individual patents(single inventor).

Do I have a reasonable chance of a consular interview in 2015 ? Any risks that you see ? I see delays in PERM labor adjucation as a problem of me missing the window when my PD would be current.

[jimmys]

Does anyone think President is going to act on EO for legal immigration (As per today's statement)?

[sp2008]

Please move to Relevant thread after answered. I have posted this in RFE thread but no traction there.


Hello All,

not sure if they continue to issue Visa's still last date.
I received bunch of emails (as well as case status updates on website) that my I485 is approved, card production stage etc on 29 th October and another one today (3 nov)
my PD is july 3 - 2008.
However there is no update on the status of my wife and daughter. I am primary applicant and they both are dependents.
their status remained same as "RFE response Review" for over two months.

since the dates are retrogressed, i was worried they will not get it this year.
is that a possibility? my understanding was that they process family together.
spoke to L2, he has no clue.


Thanks
Satya

[civilengineer]

Oct 3, 2014 Inventory.
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_Inventory_2014_10_3.pdf

[jimmys]

So, EB2-I still has about 20K pending prior to May 1, 2010. Very interesting. Spillover was less than anticipated in FY 14?

[qesehmk]

Public service announcement:

Friends, please be considerate of moderators' time and efforts and ask your questions in appropriate forums. Only when you have asked it in appropriate forum and haven't gotten a response in 3 days, then it's ok to ask it in this thread.

All other questions will be moved to this thread beginning today. http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2497-Inappropriately-Placed-Questions

Thanks for your understanding.

[bikenlalan]

SO estimation is anywhere between 9k-13k.
Oct 2013 Oct 2014 Diff Std Allocation Est. SO
EB2-I 32539 20263 12276 2802 9474
EB3-I 34336 29422 4914 2802 2112

Demand reduced by 236 for PD between May 2009 and May 2010 for EB-2I
So estimated SO based on the numbers is 9238. Ofcourse this includes new filers/porters who filed between July-Sep 14 (Assuming around 3000-4000)
So adding this to 9238 will give anywhere between 12k-13k.
People may differ on the amount of new filers/porters so the final number may vary.

For EB3-I demand reduced by 2112 excluding the std allocation. There may be new filers or USCIS found files out of nowhere :) (I see in some months of 2003, no of cases increased) , looks like porting is between 3k-4k for the FY.

I have not included the per country allocation based on FB spillover allocation per category per country.

Gurus please opine.

[iatiam]

Oct 3, 2014 Inventory.
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_Inventory_2014_10_3.pdf

Thanks Civilengineer.

Spec,

What do you make out of the inventory? I do see 3k+ pending cases in 2008. Can we assume that this inventory is sort of "interim" and the pending cases would further reduce in the next issue (whenever that is)

Iatiam

[vyruss]

The latest inventory show over 20000 for EB2 before May 2010. Is it possible that these numbers will be lower by the next inventory? This is because the recent approvals may not figure into this data yet.

[suninphx]

Oct 3, 2014 Inventory.
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_Inventory_2014_10_3.pdf

Thanks civilengineer!

Spec - have you come across anything which tells us about amount of spillover EB could be getting from FB? (if any at all?)

[qesehmk]

So between the inventory published in July and Oct, there are no major surprises except EB2ROW where the demand is a bit higher than one would've expected.

[eb2visa]

It looks like the inventory is as of 10/3. Except October approvals it is pretty clear inventory. In October this year quota might be used. If this is true what could be the final inventory pending as of now?



Thanks Civilengineer.

Spec,

What do you make out of the inventory? I do see 3k+ pending cases in 2008. Can we assume that this inventory is sort of "interim" and the pending cases would further reduce in the next issue (whenever that is)

Iatiam

[Spectator]

I'm not around for a few days.

I'll comment next week when I'm back and have had a chance to look at the new Inventory figures.

[jimmys]

The latest inventory show over 20000 for EB2 before May 2010. Is it possible that these numbers will be lower by the next inventory? This is because the recent approvals may not figure into this data yet.

Nope. The approvals starting this October are from FY 15 numbers. The max it could have is 2800. And, we have about 3K-4K porting every year. The new porting will take care of the approvals in Oct 14. So, in 2015 summer, inventory will be about the same. 20K pending inventory - 2.8K approvals in Oct + 3K porting for 9 months = 20K approx in summer of 2015. Oct 2014 approvals won't make any dent to pending inventory come summer.

[Kanmani]

Missed the boat by just two months this year, I am still behind 9000 people in the queue guys, intimidating! I hate you all.

[sportsfan33]

Missed the boat by just two months this year, I am still behind 9000 people in the queue guys, intimidating! I hate you all.

I know it is frustrating. The end never seems to be in sight...does it!

However with everything said and done, I have high confidence your GC will come by Sept 2015. 9000 is not a bad number for EB2I. And the spillover will be > 0. As spec had said, EB2I movement is too sensitive to a slight variation in processing. A 5K variation here and there can push the EB2I date and open the gate for many deserving and long awaiting people.

[Kanmani]

December 2014 Visa bulletin is out guys.............http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-december-2014.html

[gten20]

Missed the boat by just two months this year, I am still behind 9000 people in the queue guys, intimidating! I hate you all.
:(
Well if it makes you feel any better.. I hate you too. ;)
I don't even have an EAD. I can't switch jobs. Been waiting for ever(feels like it) and now you hate me.. :) why do you hate me? :eek:

Hang in there.

[nbk1976]

.... However, if you change the job using AC21, make sure you are getting the salary in PERM.

AC 21 Employers are not bound by PERM wage offer. The job must be same or similar, but the new AC 21 employers are not required to pay PERM wages, nor even prove that they can pay the wages.

That is my understanding. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[imdeng]

Kanmani/Spec - Agree/Disagree? This question might become material for me in coming days - so I am very interested in your opinions. P

AC 21 Employers are not bound by PERM wage offer. The job must be same or similar, but the new AC 21 employers are not required to pay PERM wages, nor even prove that they can pay the wages.

That is my understanding. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[Kanmani]

Kanmani/Spec - Agree/Disagree? This question might become material for me in coming days - so I am very interested in your opinions. P

imdeng,

Honestly speaking I didn't want to answer this question, thought of writing you a pm, later I ended up writing here what I think.

AC21 rules are generally the interpretations of the law used practically with the directions of various memos. As I dig deeper in to the practices of adjudicators, I don't really expect them having enlightened with all those information spread over the memos. What they do is simply shoot an RFE, you can't question them with a quote from the memo really, you must pay the attorney and reply them.

The pay difference of few thousands are negligible, but huge wage difference on the lower end might trigger a doubt, Adjudicators have every right to question us, additionally those memos guides them to make sure the job offer is genuine or not.

So I am going to explain hereafter on my point of view. Myself changing jobs using AC21 portability option, would try as possible I can to make sure, I never get an RFE. I know very well that offered wage is not the criteria there, same or similar job is the key point. I should make sure that the wage offered should not peep in the picture to send me an RFE. Would they send me an RFE? Why not? I can't just hold to one memo as an authority to end up in a RFE situation, when I am that close to getting an GC.

There are situations and successful cases who have changed jobs with a lower salary. It is based on how much comfortable you are on facing situations.

That's all I have. I am not really comfortable discussing further. I came up with the above is just for your sake. Good luck!

[imdeng]

Thanks Kanmani. Appreciate your thoughts.

[sportsfan33]

AC 21 Employers are not bound by PERM wage offer. The job must be same or similar, but the new AC 21 employers are not required to pay PERM wages, nor even prove that they can pay the wages.

That is my understanding. Please correct me if I am wrong.

That may be so. But "same or similar" is a vague concept and you cannot rule out an adjudicator arguing it should transfer to your salary too. My criteria for "same or similar" contains fulfilling 3 things that I made sure held true for my own self when I switched jobs.

1) Similarity: The type of job as described by the labor code in the PERM should be similar. This is the most important requirement. That means the answer to the question: "had this job been advertized, what would the labor code be?" should be same or similar labor code.

2) Salary: Of course, geographic area matters. If you went from Northern California/NYC to midwest/south, you will probably take a large salary reduction. There are always extraneous circumstances. However, once you factor out the cost of living adjustment etc., you better make sure you keep earning a similar wage. If your salary drops too much, it can arouse a suspicion on your original petition itself, and it might end up opening lots of cans of worms.

3) Job requirements: if your original petition was EB2 based, your new job should require the same qualifications as that of an EB2 job (bachelors+5 years, or masters). Again, this may not be stated explicitly anywhere in the AC21 memo, but a tough adjudicator will not buy that the job falls in the "same or similar category" unless this was satisfied.

[gcq]

AC21 Same or similar from USCIS itself.

http://www.uscis.gov/news/questions-and-answers/questions-about-same-or-similar-occupational-classifications-under-american-competitiveness-twenty-first-century-act-2000-ac21



Q2. How does USCIS determine what qualifies as a same or similar occupational classification?
A2. USCIS generally makes a determination as to whether one job is in the “same or similar” occupational classification as another by referring to the DOL’s SOC system. USCIS officers also consider multiple factors to conclude if two jobs are considered to be in similar occupational classifications for porting purposes (see above question for definition of “porting”). USCIS officers may compare factors including, but not limited to:


The job duties of both positions
The SOC code from the Immigrant Petition for Alien Worker (Form I-140) and the appropriate SOC code for the new position
The wages associated with each position
USCIS officers will view the totality of the circumstances to determine if the two jobs are the same or similar for porting purposes.





Q4. The December 27, 2005 AC21 Memo states that a discrepancy between the wages of two jobs may be used to decide if the two positions are the same or similar, but the memo also states that a difference in the wages of the two jobs cannot be used as the sole basis for denial in adjustment of status portability cases. Can USCIS provide further explanation on how wages are used to determine whether two jobs are in the same or similar occupational classification?
A4. Section I, Question 3 from the December 27, 2005 AC21 Memo provides USCIS officers with the flexibility to consider a “substantial discrepancy” in the wages offered in two positions to assist them in deciding if the two jobs are in the same or a similar occupational classification. A “substantial discrepancy” in the wages of the two jobs may be a contributing factor in a denial when the evidence is considered in its totality. However, a USCIS officer should not deny a case solely because a second position pays more or less than the original.


Section 1, Question 5 from the December 27, 2005 AC21 Memo references a “difference” in the wages to inform both USCIS officers and the public that a difference in wages should not be used as the sole basis for a denial. This means there can be an allowance for normal raises that occur through the passage of time to account for inflation and other factors such as higher rates of pay in different metropolitan locations.

[shreyasai2004]

Hi,

My suggestion is talk to your local congressman or senator. Create a request through them.

Then I think you are good that's what I did it.

Thanks,
Shreya




Please move to Relevant thread after answered. I have posted this in RFE thread but no traction there.


Hello All,

not sure if they continue to issue Visa's still last date.
I received bunch of emails (as well as case status updates on website) that my I485 is approved, card production stage etc on 29 th October and another one today (3 nov)
my PD is july 3 - 2008.
However there is no update on the status of my wife and daughter. I am primary applicant and they both are dependents.
their status remained same as "RFE response Review" for over two months.

since the dates are retrogressed, i was worried they will not get it this year.
is that a possibility? my understanding was that they process family together.
spoke to L2, he has no clue.


Thanks
Satya

[sp2008]

Thank you Shreya,

did you work for you?


Hi,

My suggestion is talk to your local congressman or senator. Create a request through them.

Then I think you are good that's what I did it.

Thanks,
Shreya

[shreyasai2004]

It worked for me and one of my friend also.



Thank you Shreya,

did you work for you?

[Spectator]

OFLC Q4 FY2014 PERM Disclosure Data Released

It can be found here (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm).

I have updated all the posts in the PERM section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) to reflect the official figures.

[suninphx]

OFLC Q4 FY2014 PERM Disclosure Data Released

It can be found here (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm).

I have updated all the posts in the PERM section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) to reflect the official figures.

thanks Spec!

[tendlya]

Guys,
One quick question. Can dependent EAD holder work on two full time jobs at once for a period of one month or so? My wife's current company is closing down in December and she might get offer from another company soon. So she might be employed by two employers during the month of December. I am the primary applicant for GC.

Thanks.

[gcq]

Guys,
One quick question. Can dependent EAD holder work on two full time jobs at once for a period of one month or so? My wife's current company is closing down in December and she might get offer from another company soon. So she might be employed by two employers during the month of December. I am the primary applicant for GC.

Thanks.

With EAD, there is no restriction on the number of jobs that can be held or being unemployed even for primary.

If you are the primary applicant, you need to have a job offer when your I-485 is adjudicated.
EAD is almost like a green card.

[tendlya]

Thanks gcq.

[civilengineer]

Did anyone analyze the demand data? Will June 2008 PD people who filed I-485 first time in 2014 get greened next year likely? Thanks in advance.

[Pundit Arjun]

USCIS has released the performance data for the 4th Quarter of FY2014. The data available is as of Sept 30th.
There were 126,939 485 EB applications approved.

http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-all-uscis-application-and-petition-form-types

[jdoe99]

USCIS has released the performance data for the 4th Quarter of FY2014. The data available is as of Sept 30th.
There were 126,939 485 EB applications approved.

http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-all-uscis-application-and-petition-form-types

Am I reading it wrong. Shouldn't the approved numbers be 140K?

[qesehmk]

Am I reading it wrong. Shouldn't the approved numbers be 140K?
It excludes CP. So 150-126 = 24K is the CP number.

[jdoe99]

Completely forgot about that :). thanks.

[imdeng]

USCIS is about to be hit with millions of new applications - expanded DACA will happen in 3 months, Deferred Action for Parents will happen in 6 months. DAP will be several million applications - and would coincide with the summer spillover season. Given this, it would make sense for USCIS to take care of some of its priorities right now when the load is low. For example - making EB3ROW current and building inventory - do it now rather than in summer. Clearing EB2I until 01NOV2009 - do it now rather than waiting for summer and then also run the risk of sending new medical RFEs for many folks. If inventory building for EB2I is going to happen in FY2014 (big if, I know) then do it now rather than wait until deep in summer - and so on.

It's a good idea. Not likely to happen. But would be nice if it did.

[Jonty Rhodes]

USCIS is about to be hit with millions of new applications - expanded DACA will happen in 3 months, Deferred Action for Parents will happen in 6 months. DAP will be several million applications - and would coincide with the summer spillover season. Given this, it would make sense for USCIS to take care of some of its priorities right now when the load is low. For example - making EB3ROW current and building inventory - do it now rather than in summer. Clearing EB2I until 01NOV2009 - do it now rather than waiting for summer and then also run the risk of sending new medical RFEs for many folks. If inventory building for EB2I is going to happen in FY2014 (big if, I know) then do it now rather than wait until deep in summer - and so on.

It's a good idea. Not likely to happen. But would be nice if it did.

It would be too much to expect that kind of strategic planning and competency from this organization. Nothing is going to happen as you said it in your last sentence. I see that one year from now, I would still be here writing the same stuff not being able to file for EAD and you will be awaiting your GC as they would be clearing backlogs till May 1, 2009. Sorry, if I sound too pessimistic.

[Spectator]

Web Annual Numerical Limits For FY2015 Has Been Published (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf).

It seems EB will receive around 4k extra visas from FB in FY2015.

Assuming EB1 (28.6%), EB5 (7.1%) (in addition to EB3 (28.6%)) use their extra allotment from the 4k, around 1.4k extra visas might be available to EB2-I.

That kind of number is not going to make a significant difference.

[gcvijay]

Web Annual Numerical Limits For FY2015 Has Been Published (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf).

It seems EB will receive around 4k extra visas from FB in FY2015.

Assuming EB1 (28.6%), EB5 (7.1%) (in addition to EB3 (28.6%)) use their extra allotment from the 4k, around 1.4k extra visas might be available to EB2-I.

That kind of number is not going to make a significant difference.

Thanks for the update Spec. With these extra's do you still believe its going to be worst\normal\best case scenario you have listed? What is your assumption on what EB2I might end up during July 2015 if they start moving and how far it will move by end of FY 2015? Appreciate your inputs.

[YTeleven]

I don't have any changes from my earlier predictions on EB2-I and it still holds good: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=53828#post53828

[qesehmk]

Header updated for Immigration Executive Order.

Agree with Spec and YT that the new limit of 144K for year 2015 won't make tangible difference to most backlogged folks. 4K extra is still good though.

[suninphx]

Web Annual Numerical Limits For FY2015 Has Been Published (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf).

It seems EB will receive around 4k extra visas from FB in FY2015.

Assuming EB1 (28.6%), EB5 (7.1%) (in addition to EB3 (28.6%)) use their extra allotment from the 4k, around 1.4k extra visas might be available to EB2-I.

That kind of number is not going to make a significant difference.

Thanks Spec!

I will be more optimistic and hope that EB2-I gets more than 1.4K visas (i..e. EB1 and EB5 do not use all of these extra visas allocated to them.). In any case, any number above zero is welcome and I will take it.

[cool_guy_2004]

Guru's,

Have you looked at this report? It shows immigrant visas issued (not sure if it means GC's or H1's) for India as 745 and for the same category for China as 10K+, didn't make sense...
http://www.travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableIII.pdf

[nbk1976]

Guru's,

Have you looked at this report? It shows immigrant visas issued (not sure if it means GC's or H1's) for India as 745 and for the same category for China as 10K+, didn't make sense...
http://www.travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableIII.pdf

H1's are not immigrant visas. You are right China's count shows 10K+. I am not sure how to read that.

[kkruna]

H1's are not immigrant visas. You are right China's count shows 10K+. I am not sure how to read that.

Worldwide emp visa shows 21,365!

[qesehmk]

Guru's,

Have you looked at this report? It shows immigrant visas issued (not sure if it means GC's or H1's) for India as 745 and for the same category for China as 10K+, didn't make sense...
http://www.travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableIII.pdf


H1's are not immigrant visas. You are right China's count shows 10K+. I am not sure how to read that.


Worldwide emp visa shows 21,365!


Friends - They do not include adj of status numbers. In other words they only represent CP cases.

[gkjppp]

Friends - They do not include adj of status numbers. In other words they only represent CP cases.

Quick question: My PD is 03/15/2010. An hour ago i got an email, status changed from Intial Review to Acceptance. whats going on? Is this system glitch?
please move this to appropriate thread.

[harapatta]

Quick question: My PD is 03/15/2010. An hour ago i got an email, status changed from Intial Review to Acceptance. whats going on? Is this system glitch?
please move this to appropriate thread.

I also got text from USCIS that they we be checking on my RFE response ( My PD 04/19/2010).

hope something good is coming

[gkjppp]

I also got text from USCIS that they we be checking on my RFE response ( My PD 04/19/2010).

hope something good is coming

Thanks for reply . when did you got your RFE? I got no RFE's. It says Finger Print Fees was received :-) thats weird though.

[harapatta]

Thanks for reply . when did you got your RFE? I got no RFE's. It says Finger Print Fees was received :-) thats weird though.

I replied to RFE in OCT 2012 and it says they will begin working on my case .

[gkjppp]

I replied to RFE in OCT 2012 and it says they will begin working on my case .

Got it, its a glitch. they would have worked on your case long back. mass update... hahaha....

[kumar777]

I got the same email saying fee is received and now the status is "Accepted. my pd date is 12/15/2009.

[vishnu]

given the text in these messages is the same as what people received back in 2012, looks like a system glitch (i saw more of these messages on trackitt)

that being said, my attorney designated my application as CP (not AoS), PD Sep 2010, so never filed 485. i did receive NVC notice in September to pay the relevant fees - that comes from the DoS, so not a system glitch there

taking both of these items together, perhaps there is a plan to move dates, particular with regards to one of the action points "to utilize all available visas"

anyway lets see what dates do over the next 3 months

[vishnu]

Ok def just a system glitch
Ppl who've received greencard already have also been getting messages

[gcq]

I got an LUD on my I-485 with the status same as received your application in August 2007. Status not changed. looks like a mass update

[PD2008AUG25]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-january-2015.html

[gten20]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-january-2015.html

This is so wrong... I hired a fresher out of college in 2011 and he will get his GC before me. He still wont have enough experience on the day he gets his GC than I had when I hired him.

[YTeleven]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-january-2015.html

It is interesting to watch EB2-C on how aggressively they downgrade to EB3-C in next 3 quarters. Everybody thinks EB3-C will become current by the end of FY15 but they will never become current as there will be continuous downgrades from EB2-C which drags the EB3-C from becoming current. EB2-I need to learn from EB2-C downgrade experiences for next one year and get ready for FY17 when their turn comes to downgrades unless Congress makes legislation for increasing visas or recapturing visas.

[migo79]

that's very well said

[sstest]

Pending CP demand - link from Jan VB

http://www.travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingListItem.pdf

[mk2007]

Hi YTeleven,
do you think the predictions you made in Sept. 2014 still hold true or there is any changes on the positive side, considering the new data points available now?
Gurus on this forum please let us know your views.

Thanks,
Madhuri

In few hours from now we will be in FY15, this will be my last post in FY14.
I've a very positive prediction for EB3-India folks who are waiting for more than 10 years in the GC Q.
Back in May'14 I was predicting that EB3-India will have bright future ahead in this post: here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/5-EB3-Predictions-amp-Calculations?p=46298#post46298)

After a thorough data analysis I could say that in FY16 we will see a complete wipe out of EB3-I I485 inventory as shown in this graph:EB3-I I485 inventory trends (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92UnBIMC1qRDMzb0U/edit?usp=sharing)
Here I'm comparing the same graph with current EB3-ROW inventory trend:EB3-I I485 inventory trends comparing with EB3-ROW inventory trend (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92NE5OT2lnaGdrSmM/edit?usp=sharing)

After seeing these graphs you might question why would we see 20k spillover to EB3-I in FY16. This is what I'm getting from all the available data pointers.
After FY15 there will not be any demand for EB3 to consume its yearly 40k visas and that gives a massive horizontal spillover to EB3-India.
So this means we will have inventory buildup for EB3-I also in FY16.

Already, this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=53828#post53828) predicts that there is a possibility for EB2-I inventory building in FY16.

[YTeleven]

This is what we predicted back in April'14 that EB2-I will get at least 21,000 visas :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2474-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2014?p=52317#post52317
and this is what the actual allocation of visas for EB2-I in FY14: 23,528 Visas
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf
our predictions were 90% accurate.

I've projections for FY2015...will disclose soon.

[YTeleven]

Hi YTeleven,
do you think the predictions you made in Sept. 2014 still hold true or there is any changes on the positive side, considering the new data points available now?
Gurus on this forum please let us know your views.

Thanks,
Madhuri

Yes. Those predictions still hold good. In fact the recent I-485 data was inline to those predictions.

[bittertruth]

YTeleven, Thanks for posting EB2I forecast. Does this prediction take into account the increase in EB1 filings?

[YTeleven]

Pending CP demand - link from Jan VB

http://www.travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingListItem.pdf

I was expecting a huge reduction in demand for EB3-P visas in this NVC waitlist data for FY2014. But I see a moderate reduction of around 5k applications.
Probably the EB3-P discussion in this link : http://www.forbes.com/sites/andyjsemotiuk/2014/10/07/immigration-expert-children-are-being-turned-back-without-due-process/ gives some insight on why the EB3-P demand will not reduce.

On the whole, comparing to last four years first time I'm seeing the cracking in NVC waitlist data and it got reduced to 18.5% in FY2014 in spite of huge EB5 demand: NVC_Waitlist_Data_Reduction_from_FY2011_to_FY2014 (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92eTVDUGJ4YUo0MHc/view?usp=sharing)

[arnab222]

YT any quick insights on where the PD might land in FY2015 based on your insights ?

[YTeleven]

This is what we predicted back in April'14 that EB2-I will get at least 21,000 visas :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2474-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2014?p=52317#post52317
and this is what the actual allocation of visas for EB2-I in FY14: 23,528 Visas
http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf
our predictions were 90% accurate.

I've projections for FY2015...will disclose soon.

As promised, here is the Projections for Visa allocations in FY2015 for EB-INDIA : FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version1 (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92ZVFKWERBMG9Kbmc/view?usp=sharing)

[YTeleven]

YT any quick insights on where the PD might land in FY2015 based on your insights ?



As I said earlier in this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=53828#post53828) the I-485 inventory levels for EB2-India will drop below 8k by 30Sep2015 and the PD movements will be around Dec 2009.

[amulchandra]

As promised, here is the Projections for Visa allocations in FY2015 for EB-INDIA : FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version1 (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92ZVFKWERBMG9Kbmc/view?usp=sharing)

Hi YT,

Thank you very much for sharing your projection.
Sorry for a dumb question but does this mean Eb3 I might receive around 6000 SO from Eb3 Row?

Regards
Amul

[YTeleven]

Hi YT,

Thank you very much for sharing your projection.
Sorry for a dumb question but does this mean Eb3 I might receive around 6000 SO from Eb3 Row?

Regards
Amul

Yes. That's true. I'm expecting around 5k of horizontal spillover from EB3-ROW in FY15.

[gcvijay]

As promised, here is the Projections for Visa allocations in FY2015 for EB-INDIA : FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version1 (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92ZVFKWERBMG9Kbmc/view?usp=sharing)

Thanks for the projection. So you think my PD July 2nd 2009 EB2I will get current around July 2015? If yes do I need to count on GC or EAD given the processing time for 485 being longer for FY2014.

[qesehmk]

Header updated.

[cancer24]

Header updated.

I am seeing new forecast on whereismygc.com and it does not look good but I need to take it with a grain of salt. All I know that Q doesn't provide any pessimistic or optimistic estimate but rather gives "common sense/realistic" one.

[qesehmk]

I am seeing new forecast on whereismygc.com and it does not look good but I need to take it with a grain of salt. All I know that Q doesn't provide any pessimistic or optimistic estimate but rather gives "common sense/realistic" one.
Thanks for your words cancer. WhereismyGC's forecast is not quite different than what Spec has been saying. I haven't quite followed YT's predictions but would be curious to hear his take on 2015.

As far as I am concerned - 2014 shows a picture of high usage coupled of high accumulation. It's a double whammy in 2015 - because in 2015 quite likely the demand may stay the same and then there will be a significant backlog that USCIS has to deal with.

Another thing I would be interested in hearing from others is their take on EB-I portings.

Although the usage for 2014 was 23.5K for EB2I - the inventory of EB2I went down only by ~12K. So the remaining 11.5K visas must go towards portings. But then if you look at EB3I inventory reduction - it only looks like 5K.

A) somebody needs to solve this
B) if this doesn't get solved - I think an immigrant group must raise this with Dept of State and ask an explanation because at a time when thousands are waiting in line - 6.5K visas is a big deal to not have an explanation for.

[YTeleven]

Thanks for your words cancer. WhereismyGC's forecast is not quite different than what Spec has been saying. I haven't quite followed YT's predictions but would be curious to hear his take on 2015.

As far as I am concerned - 2014 shows a picture of high usage coupled of high accumulation. It's a double whammy in 2015 - because in 2015 quite likely the demand may stay the same and then there will be a significant backlog that USCIS has to deal with.

Another thing I would be interested in hearing from others is their take on EB-I portings.

Although the usage for 2014 was 23.5K for EB2I - the inventory of EB2I went down only by ~12K. So the remaining 11.5K visas must go towards portings. But then if you look at EB3I inventory reduction - it only looks like 5K.

A) somebody needs to solve this
B) if this doesn't get solved - I think an immigrant group must raise this with Dept of State and ask an explanation because at a time when thousands are waiting in line - 6.5K visas is a big deal to not have an explanation for.

Q,
Your concern is valid. I see there is 3.5 K reduction in NVC data this time for EB2-I. : Reduction in NVC Waiting List Data for EB2 from FY2011 to FY2014 (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92VVJ2NXMxUERxcEE/view?usp=sharing)
Remaining unaccounted numbers may be due to the portings of EB3-I whose PDs between 2007 and 2009 and they may not reflect in inventory accurately.
This is the reason why I often say there will not be any demand when we clear all of the EB3-I inventory in FY16.

[sportsfan33]

Thanks for your words cancer. WhereismyGC's forecast is not quite different than what Spec has been saying. I haven't quite followed YT's predictions but would be curious to hear his take on 2015.

As far as I am concerned - 2014 shows a picture of high usage coupled of high accumulation. It's a double whammy in 2015 - because in 2015 quite likely the demand may stay the same and then there will be a significant backlog that USCIS has to deal with.

Another thing I would be interested in hearing from others is their take on EB-I portings.

Although the usage for 2014 was 23.5K for EB2I - the inventory of EB2I went down only by ~12K. So the remaining 11.5K visas must go towards portings. But then if you look at EB3I inventory reduction - it only looks like 5K.

A) somebody needs to solve this
B) if this doesn't get solved - I think an immigrant group must raise this with Dept of State and ask an explanation because at a time when thousands are waiting in line - 6.5K visas is a big deal to not have an explanation for.

Answer: Post 2007 porting.

Edit: Just saw YT's answer and realized that we also need to add the NVC approvals. Q, some time back, you had showed that EB2-I had a large pending NVC demand and the number was in the ~5K range up to 2009 itself.

[bikenlalan]

VISA BULLETIN PROJECTIONS FOR 2015...
India EB-2. Mr. Oppenheim suggests that India EB-2 may slightly progress in the first-half of 2015. Historically the Visa Office has waited until the summer to advance the India EB-2 date.
http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8395-VISA-BULLETIN-PROJECTIONS-FOR-2015&

This could also mean June 2015.

[Jonty Rhodes]

VISA BULLETIN PROJECTIONS FOR 2015...
India EB-2. Mr. Oppenheim suggests that India EB-2 may slightly progress in the first-half of 2015. Historically the Visa Office has waited until the summer to advance the India EB-2 date.
http://blogs.ilw.com/entry.php?8395-VISA-BULLETIN-PROJECTIONS-FOR-2015&

This could also mean June 2015.

Read the last paragraph from the link.

"President Obama’s Recent Executive Action. The Visa Office reminds users that the President’s Executive Action is not expected to have any impact on the Visa Bulletin. While the Executive Action suggests that Adjustment of Status applications will be able to be filed much earlier in the green card process, these “pre-filings” will not impact the priority dates."

I think everybody knew and expected from this EO that people will be allowed to file for I-485 even when dates are not current. But bigger question is when will it be implemented? If this is going to take more than a year, than it would be not much helpful for people between May, 2010 to early 2011 since they will most likely be able to file for EAD next year anyways if dates advance.

In reality, they don't even need an executive action for letting people who are not current, file for I-485. All that USCIS needs to do is to make PD current for retrogressed countries for 1-2 months and people will be able to file I-485 and get EAD/AP . After that, they can retrogress it or make it unavailable.

Anyways, some relief is better than no relief. But I still wish that President should have given at least some specific timeline in the EO for legals as well. Instead of that, all we got was some feel good text and a tall promise asking the USCIS and DHS to streamline the legal immigration system. It will probably happen also, but we just don't know when.

Our only hopes are 1) USCIS/DHS starts implementing these reforms quickly which will not happen for sure as it is going to take a long time. or 2) New Congress with GOP majority in House and Senate passes some kind of commonsense (not Comprehensive) immigration reform early next year that would satisfy politicians on both sides and President as well so he doesn't veto it. The chances of this happening is zilch, zero, none, nil, ille. In fact, GOP is planning to stop further funding of DHS (current funding ends in February) so as to stop DHS from implementing EO on immigration (USCIS is funded by all of us so no issue of funding there). There is no way they are going to pass anything on immigration. Somehow, if they manage to pass something for legal immigration, either Democrats will not support it (so it won't pass) or President will veto it if the bill doesn't include illegals.

So I don't expect any action on immigration at least till 2017 since 2016 is an election year and no one will touch a political hot potato named immigration. And if we get a Republican President in 2017, then we should just say bye bye to CIR although ironically, that may actually increase the chances to have something passed for legal immigrants.

[gten20]

Read the last paragraph from the link.

"President Obama’s Recent Executive Action. The Visa Office reminds users that the President’s Executive Action is not expected to have any impact on the Visa Bulletin. While the Executive Action suggests that Adjustment of Status applications will be able to be filed much earlier in the green card process, these “pre-filings” will not impact the priority dates."

I think everybody knew and expected from this EO that people will be allowed to file for I-485 even when dates are not current. But bigger question is when will it be implemented? If this is going to take more than a year, than it would be not much helpful for people between May, 2010 to early 2011 since they will most likely be able to file for EAD next year anyways if dates advance.

In reality, they don't even need an executive action for letting people who are not current, file for I-485. All that USCIS needs to do is to make PD current for retrogressed countries for 1-2 months and people will be able to file I-485 and get EAD/AP . After that, they can retrogress it or make it unavailable.

Anyways, some relief is better than no relief. But I still wish that President should have given at least some specific timeline in the EO for legals as well. Instead of that, all we got was some feel good text and a tall promise asking the USCIS and DHS to streamline the legal immigration system. It will probably happen also, but we just don't know when.

Our only hopes are 1) USCIS/DHS starts implementing these reforms quickly which will not happen for sure as it is going to take a long time. or 2) New Congress with GOP majority in House and Senate passes some kind of commonsense (not Comprehensive) immigration reform early next year that would satisfy politicians on both sides and President as well so he doesn't veto it. The chances of this happening is zilch, zero, none, nil, ille. In fact, GOP is planning to stop further funding of DHS (current funding ends in February) so as to stop DHS from implementing EO on immigration (USCIS is funded by all of us so no issue of funding there). There is no way they are going to pass anything on immigration. Somehow, if they manage to pass something for legal immigration, either Democrats will not support it (so it won't pass) or President will veto it if the bill doesn't include illegals.

So I don't expect any action on immigration at least till 2017 since 2016 is an election year and no one will touch a political hot potato named immigration. And if we get a Republican President in 2017, then we should just say bye bye to CIR although ironically, that may actually increase the chances to have something passed for legal immigrants.

Yep, I don't expect anything will happen until after 2016 election. Everyday it looks more and more like backlogs will remain till people just get tired and demand drops.

What Obama "did" for addressing legal immigration is that he told DHS and USCIS to look busy.

The new congress doesn't seem interested in tackling immigration. Mitch McConnell has said his first order of business when he heads senate will be Keystone pipeline vote. Obama has said he will veto the bill if it comes to his desk. Under such atmosphere I don't think immigration reform can happen.

[bikenlalan]

Read the last paragraph from the link.

"President Obama’s Recent Executive Action. The Visa Office reminds users that the President’s Executive Action is not expected to have any impact on the Visa Bulletin. While the Executive Action suggests that Adjustment of Status applications will be able to be filed much earlier in the green card process, these “pre-filings” will not impact the priority dates."

I think everybody knew and expected from this EO that people will be allowed to file for I-485 even when dates are not current. But bigger question is when will it be implemented? If this is going to take more than a year, than it would be not much helpful for people between May, 2010 to early 2011 since they will most likely be able to file for EAD next year anyways if dates advance.

In reality, they don't even need an executive action for letting people who are not current, file for I-485. All that USCIS needs to do is to make PD current for retrogressed countries for 1-2 months and people will be able to file I-485 and get EAD/AP . After that, they can retrogress it or make it unavailable.

Anyways, some relief is better than no relief. But I still wish that President should have given at least some specific timeline in the EO for legals as well. Instead of that, all we got was some feel good text and a tall promise asking the USCIS and DHS to streamline the legal immigration system. It will probably happen also, but we just don't know when.

Our only hopes are 1) USCIS/DHS starts implementing these reforms quickly which will not happen for sure as it is going to take a long time. or 2) New Congress with GOP majority in House and Senate passes some kind of commonsense (not Comprehensive) immigration reform early next year that would satisfy politicians on both sides and President as well so he doesn't veto it. The chances of this happening is zilch, zero, none, nil, ille. In fact, GOP is planning to stop further funding of DHS (current funding ends in February) so as to stop DHS from implementing EO on immigration (USCIS is funded by all of us so no issue of funding there). There is no way they are going to pass anything on immigration. Somehow, if they manage to pass something for legal immigration, either Democrats will not support it (so it won't pass) or President will veto it if the bill doesn't include illegals.

So I don't expect any action on immigration at least till 2017 since 2016 is an election year and no one will touch a political hot potato named immigration. And if we get a Republican President in 2017, then we should just say bye bye to CIR although ironically, that may actually increase the chances to have something passed for legal immigrants.

Very well said. There is no chance this is happening anytime in 2015/16.
Thinking about the H-4 EAD rule, there were talks about it since early 2013. And we are already at the end of 2014 (supposed to be published this month) and we are yet waiting. Imagine when this will see the light of day.

Sure, they do not need EO to implement this and make everyone current for at least couple of months. This is how they are going to delay it and Obama does not look bad (atleast he is doing something about the legals)

[Jonty Rhodes]

Very well said. There is no chance this is happening anytime in 2015/16.
Thinking about the H-4 EAD rule, there were talks about it since early 2013. And we are already at the end of 2014 (supposed to be published this month) and we are yet waiting. Imagine when this will see the light of day.

Sure, they do not need EO to implement this and make everyone current for at least couple of months. This is how they are going to delay it and Obama does not look bad (atleast he is doing something about the legals)

You know the worst part for legal immigrants like us is that we have to make a choice between Democrats (bad - in the sense of doing nothing for legals till illegals are included) vs Republicans (worst - perceived as totally anti-immigrants) when it comes to getting something done for legal immigration and we get screwed by both sides. When President Obama got elected in 2008, he had majority (he was one short of a supermajority in reality, but had it on paper) in both House and Senate. His 2008 pre-election promise was to address Immigration issues in his first term and make it a priority. Even after being elected and sworn in as a President, there was lot of talk about Immigration Reform. For some unknown reason, the discussion fell silent over few months and completely deviated towards Affordable Care Act. If Democrats and President really wanted to do immigration reform than they would have known better that immigration reform is way more controversial than Affordable Care Act and will be very difficult to pass without majority. But for some reason, they decided to sideline it, make Affordable Care Act their priority and decided to put all their efforts behind it. Now, we can debate about ACA vs CIR forever but that's not the point.

The point is, Democrats had a choice when they had majority - CIR (extremely controversial as it prevented people who broke the law intentionally or unintentionally from deportation there by bending law of the land) vs ACA (again very controversial but little less than CIR, which forced people to buy insurance and forced insurance to cover people with pre-existing conditions). In my opinion, CIR should had been taken up in first term when they had majority. I am not saying this because I am stuck in backlog. I filed my GC in 2011 so CIR in 2008-09 would not have concerned me.

But who knows, what the reality is. May be the Democrats did not take up CIR because they may have wanted to keep the carrot of immigration dangling to Hispanics and just make superficial changes in policy, so as to keep the Hispanic hope alive in order to get their votes election after elections. While Republicans can keep pandering to their vote base to keep their vote share intact.

Anyways, this is my last one on the topic as this is not an appropriate forum to discuss it. Please feel free to remove the post.

[eb2visa]

see Murthy post. There may be good news soon


EB2 India: Potential for Advancement

The EB2 India cutoff date retrogressed to February 15, 2005 in November 2014, and has remained stagnant since. The DOS previously projected that this cutoff date would not move forward before June or July 2015. However, the DOS is now considering whether to advance the cutoff date earlier in the fiscal year. No information is provided regarding when, exactly, this may occur, nor is there any indication yet regarding how far the dates will advance. MurthyDotCom will closely track this development.

[axecapone]

"President Obama’s Recent Executive Action. The Visa Office reminds users that the President’s Executive Action is not expected to have any impact on the Visa Bulletin. While the Executive Action suggests that Adjustment of Status applications will be able to be filed much earlier in the green card process, these “pre-filings” will not impact the priority dates."

The EO had some language around "issuing all visas allocated by Congress" which gave us hope for re-capture. Given this new statement, does that mean re-capture is out of question?

[qesehmk]

So lets talk about any possible movement in VB dates by DOS.

There are two ways DOS moves dates:
1. Purely to build future demand. (In other words quickly move dates forward - accept as many 485s it can and then move dates backward).
2. To actually allocate visas based on visa availability.

If there are any reports out there - including directly from Dept of State - that say they will move dates forward - they are going to fall in either of these two categories.

If it is going to be #1 - then we should expect the dates to move beyond May 2010 which is where the dates were last for EB2I.

If it is going to be #2 - then we should expect a movement of a couple of years max because #2 movement will meant DOS overshot the retrogression and took it too far back and now want to bring it to a level where it can utilize teh monthly EB2I quota.

If you ask me - my guess would be the movement will be #2 (no pun intended!).

p.s. - I also can't possibly think why EO would have any effect on dates movement unless EO somehow makes extra visas available. So far - I haven't come across anything that indicates to visa availability either through recapture or doing away with dependents being counted towards EB quota.

So for now - people shouldn't stay too hopeful about any possible date movement other than just a correction by DOS for any overshooting.

[vizcard]

Its been a while since I posted here. Started a new job and got a vacation as a perk for taking the offer :)

I agree with Q - nothing in the EO has anything to do with date movement. I do think that 485 application prior to dates being current will happen. Not sure when but it will happen.

[geterdone]

to be released tomorrow:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2014-30641.pdf

look at pages 7 & 8


Its been a while since I posted here. Started a new job and got a vacation as a perk for taking the offer :)

I agree with Q - nothing in the EO has anything to do with date movement. I do think that 485 application prior to dates being current will happen. Not sure when but it will happen.

[CleanSock]

What is that link geterdone? I am unable to open it. It says Webpage Not Available.



to be released tomorrow:

https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2014-30641.pdf

look at pages 7 & 8

[geterdone]

What is that link geterdone? I am unable to open it. It says Webpage Not Available.

try this:

https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/12/30/2014-30641/immigration-policy

[Raj0687]

try this:

https://www.federalregister.gov/articles/2014/12/30/2014-30641/immigration-policy

The 16th point is interesting, talking about recapture.

[CleanSock]

Wishing all the forum members and their families a Very Happy New Year!
For some comedy on New Year's eve, here's a video of Stephen Colbert talking about immigrants in Congress and blasting Sen. King in his own way

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ewPburLEZyY

[ramaka02]

A Very Happy New Year to all!

[arnab221]

So lets talk about any possible movement in VB dates by DOS.
If it is going to be #1 - then we should expect the dates to move beyond May 2010 which is where the dates were last for EB2I.

If it is going to be #2 - then we should expect a movement of a couple of years max because #2 movement will meant DOS overshot the retrogression and took it too far back and now want to bring it to a level where it can utilize teh monthly EB2I quota.

If you ask me - my guess would be the movement will be #2 (no pun intended!).

.

Q ,

When you say 2 years are you saying 2 years from Feb 2005 to Feb 2007 , OR is it somewhere close to Feb 2009.

[Spectator]

Happy New Year to everybody.

Here are the unofficial PERM figures for Q1 FY2015 compiled from dolstats and permchecker. I have also shown the corresponding Q1 FY2014 figures for reference.

PERM approvals rose from Q2 FY2014 onwards last FY.


Group ------- No. -- Q1 FY2014
China ----- 1,431 -------- 641
India ----- 9,220 ------ 5,076
Mexico ------ 295 -------- 281
Philippines - 316 -------- 210
ROW ------- 4,947 ------ 2,856

Total ---- 16,209 ------ 9,064

[qesehmk]

I meant - if there is any movement this quarter it will be an adjustment and hence should be relative to where dates arectoday ie from feb 2005 to couple years forward - if that.

Q ,

When you say 2 years are you saying 2 years from Feb 2005 to Feb 2007 , OR is it somewhere close to Feb 2009.

[suninphx]

Happy New Year to everybody.

Here are the unofficial PERM figures for Q1 FY2015 compiled from dolstats and permchecker. I have also shown the corresponding Q1 FY2014 figures for reference.

PERM approvals rose from Q2 FY2014 onwards last FY.


Group ------- No. -- Q1 FY2014
China ----- 1,431 -------- 641
India ----- 9,220 ------ 5,076
Mexico ------ 295 -------- 281
Philippines - 316 -------- 210
ROW ------- 4,947 ------ 2,856

Total ---- 16,209 ------ 9,064


Happy new year all!

Spec- thanks for those numbers.

Looking at the rate the PERM numbers are growing, it appears that Spec's worst case scenario may be in play this year.

[tenyearsgone]

Impact of proposed DHS funding cut on EAD/AP renewals:

Gurus,
The Republicans are proposing to cut funding (or not renew) for DHS when it runs out in late Feb. What would the impact be on EAD/AP renewals in the scenario? Will it also impact visa stamping schedules?

Please move this to an appropriate thread if this is out of place.

[suninphx]

Impact of proposed DHS funding cut on EAD/AP renewals:

Gurus,
The Republicans are proposing to cut funding (or not renew) for DHS when it runs out in late Feb. What would the impact be on EAD/AP renewals in the scenario? Will it also impact visa stamping schedules?

Please move this to an appropriate thread if this is out of place.

link please

[vckomara]

I apologize in advance if the answer for this question has been implied or directly answered already but my PD is sept 1st week 2009. if we consider the worst case, do I need to wait until 2016 for a green card or will I get it sometime during 2015? I want to be out of this company asap and would like to take a chance and move on with another job while on EAD (even though its risky considering my job profile) even if there is 10% chance that I wont get greened this year.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Impact of proposed DHS funding cut on EAD/AP renewals:

Gurus,
The Republicans are proposing to cut funding (or not renew) for DHS when it runs out in late Feb. What would the impact be on EAD/AP renewals in the scenario? Will it also impact visa stamping schedules?

Please move this to an appropriate thread if this is out of place.

I don't think EAD or AP renewals should be affected at all because they are done by USCIS. USCIS is user funded, and does not rely on Federal Government to fund it. So even in case of shutdown, USCIS will be working. (only 10% of USCIS workforce was affected during shutdown last year)

I am not sure about visa stamping because that may require involvement of DHS at some level for security clearance.

DHS is funded right now through February but even if DHS funding is frozen by GOP somehow, it would not stop majority of the DHS employees from work because during last year's 16 day shutdown, 85% of DHS employees continued to work because they were funded with mandatory funds or deemed essential to national security and public safety. Only 15% employees were affected during that shut down.

Now, clearance and granting of visa to an individual may come under national security and hence may not be impacted. If it doesn't then it may be impacted but chances are that it won't.

It is also possible that President may announce that all DHS employee are essential to national security and public safety. If that happens, then DHS would be working regularly even with frozen funding and once the funding issue resolves, President may just pay those employee at once. This is what exactly happened with those 85% of employees last time. They continued to work during shutdown without pay and got paid at once after the shutdown was over.

The best way for GOP is to pass small piecemeal immigration bills and take some action. That is the only way to stop what they call "Total Executive Amnesty" and get some rules and regulations that they desire. No action is not a good choice for them. Lets see what they do. Also, watch out for that law suit where 24 states have sued and have gone to court against this Executive Order.

[tenyearsgone]

Thanks Jonty for the answer. One can only hope that legal immigration won't get further hampered by the Executive Order and the reactions to it.

@suninphx: The question was based on this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2033-Discussion-On-The-Politics-of-Immigration-Reform-(Comprehensive-Or-Otherwise)?p=54936#post54936):
The link in question: http://www.mycentraloregon.com/2015/...e-in-new-year/ (http://www.mycentraloregon.com/2015/01/05/five-things-gop-congress-is-expected-to-tackle-in-new-year/)

[imdeng]

One: it is usually not a good idea to delay career advancement or let go of opportunities because of GC process. Two: it is likely that you will be greened in late summer 2009. It is NOT a certainty. Whether the probability is > 90%: well, there are worst case scenarios moving around, there are always folks whose PD is current but they do not get greened, there are possibilities of RFEs for myriad of things. All in all, I would say that there surely is at least 10% chance that you (and I in fact) will not get GC in FY2015.

I apologize in advance if the answer for this question has been implied or directly answered already but my PD is sept 1st week 2009. if we consider the worst case, do I need to wait until 2016 for a green card or will I get it sometime during 2015? I want to be out of this company asap and would like to take a chance and move on with another job while on EAD (even though its risky considering my job profile) even if there is 10% chance that I wont get greened this year.

[bluelabel]

Apologies for asking this question in wrong forum, Please move it to appropriate place after it's answered.

I have been working for the same employer that sponsored my green card(AOS pending with PD 03/02/2010), recently i found that our office lease is expiring and management is planning to move our office to a different place. New place would be about 4-5 miles from current office but in a different county , different city, different ZIP code and same state.

Is my labor certification and I140 are still good with new office address? Is there anything that i got to do in this situation like AC21?

[surya1975]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-february-2015.html




Employment- Based
WW
CHINA
INDIA
MEXICO
PHILIPPINES


1st
C
C
C
C
C


2nd
C
15-Mar-10
1-Sep-05
C
C


3rd
1-Jan-14
1-Sep-11
22-Dec-03
1-Jan-14
1-Jan-14


Other Workers
1-Jan-14
15-Aug-05
22-Dec-03
1-Jan-14
1-Jan-14


4th
C
C
C
C
C


Certain Religious Workers
C
C
C
C
C


5th
C
C
C
C
C





EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: Three to six weeks
India: Four to six months

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Rapid forward movement for at least another month or two. The rapid movement in recent months should generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. Once such demand materializes at the anticipated rate it will have a direct impact on this cut-off date.

China: Rapid forward movement. Such movement is likely to result
in a dramatic increase in demand which could require
"corrective" action within the next six months.
India: Up to two weeks
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date
Philippines: Will remain at the worldwide date. Increased demand may
require "corrective" action at some point later in the
fiscal year.

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current - for most countries. The expected increase in
China-mainland born demand would require the
establishment of a cut-off date for such applicants
no later than the summer months.

The category will remain "Current" for all other countries
for the foreseeable future.

[CleanSock]

What is this four to six months movement predicted for EB2I all about? Does that mean by the end of FY15?


http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-february-2015.html




Employment- Based
WW
CHINA
INDIA
MEXICO
PHILIPPINES


1st
C
C
C
C
C


2nd
C
15-Mar-10
1-Sep-05
C
C


3rd
1-Jan-14
1-Sep-11
22-Dec-03
1-Jan-14
1-Jan-14


Other Workers
1-Jan-14
15-Aug-05
22-Dec-03
1-Jan-14
1-Jan-14


4th
C
C
C
C
C


Certain Religious Workers
C
C
C
C
C


5th
C
C
C
C
C





EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: Three to six weeks
India: Four to six months

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Rapid forward movement for at least another month or two. The rapid movement in recent months should generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. Once such demand materializes at the anticipated rate it will have a direct impact on this cut-off date.

China: Rapid forward movement. Such movement is likely to result
in a dramatic increase in demand which could require
"corrective" action within the next six months.
India: Up to two weeks
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date
Philippines: Will remain at the worldwide date. Increased demand may
require "corrective" action at some point later in the
fiscal year.

Employment Fourth: Current

Employment Fifth: Current - for most countries. The expected increase in
China-mainland born demand would require the
establishment of a cut-off date for such applicants
no later than the summer months.

The category will remain "Current" for all other countries
for the foreseeable future.

[vishnu]

Very clearly says that this is monthly movement, and only until May...

This estimate is unlikely to include spillover related movement, during Q4

[skpanda]

What is this four to six months movement predicted for EB2I all about? Does that mean by the end of FY15?

From the bulletin


EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

[vizcard]

Apologies for asking this question in wrong forum, Please move it to appropriate place after it's answered.

I have been working for the same employer that sponsored my green card(AOS pending with PD 03/02/2010), recently i found that our office lease is expiring and management is planning to move our office to a different place. New place would be about 4-5 miles from current office but in a different county , different city, different ZIP code and same state.

Is my labor certification and I140 are still good with new office address? Is there anything that i got to do in this situation like AC21?

I'm pretty sure it won't have an impact. If you can change jobs to a different company, staying in the same company a few miles away shouldn't matter.

Perhaps Kanmani or Spec can weigh in.

[transformer123]

AILA has reported after talk with Mr. Oppenheim of the State Department that unlike previous years, EB-2 India visa numbers may move up from four to six months or even faster, but may not go beyond summer of 2009. Apparently, this is determined by the two factors. One is active implementation of Obama's immigration actions beginning May 2015 affected visa demand changes and the other is inscreasing rate of convering from EB-3 to EB-2 by Indians. Frustrating news in a way for the late starter Indian EB-2 professionals.
Obviously, passage of H.R. 213 of 2015 sponsored by Rep. Jason Chavetz removing per country limit for employment-based immigration will change this prediction, but fate of this bill is questionable at the best.

http://immigration-law.com/

[vishnu]

sounds rather silly, when just a week ago they reported that the actions will have no impact on the visa bulletin

no reason for obama's actions to have any impact on EB visa demand

porting very well could be an issue of course

[jdoe99]

AILA has reported after talk with Mr. Oppenheim of the State Department that unlike previous years, EB-2 India visa numbers may move up from four to six months or even faster, but may not go beyond summer of 2009. Apparently, this is determined by the two factors. One is active implementation of Obama's immigration actions beginning May 2015 affected visa demand changes and the other is inscreasing rate of convering from EB-3 to EB-2 by Indians. Frustrating news in a way for the late starter Indian EB-2 professionals.
Obviously, passage of H.R. 213 of 2015 sponsored by Rep. Jason Chavetz removing per country limit for employment-based immigration will change this prediction, but fate of this bill is questionable at the best.

http://immigration-law.com/

Does this also mean that since they will be doing movements in a methodical way, dates wont go back to stone ages once the FY gets done?

[Spectator]

AILA has reported after talk with Mr. Oppenheim of the State Department that unlike previous years, EB-2 India visa numbers may move up from four to six months or even faster, but may not go beyond summer of 2009. Apparently, this is determined by the two factors. One is active implementation of Obama's immigration actions beginning May 2015 affected visa demand changes and the other is inscreasing rate of convering from EB-3 to EB-2 by Indians. Frustrating news in a way for the late starter Indian EB-2 professionals.
Obviously, passage of H.R. 213 of 2015 sponsored by Rep. Jason Chavetz removing per country limit for employment-based immigration will change this prediction, but fate of this bill is questionable at the best.

http://immigration-law.com/Ron Gotcher has posted the text of the AILA release (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/latest-update-from-charlie-oppenheim-jan-2015.17493/).


AILA posted this update from their conference with Charlie Oppenheim this month, regarding India EB2 movement:

"EB-2 India. EB-2 India is expected to advance at a minimum, 4 to 6 months in the coming months and more significant advances should be expected through May. During FY 2013, EB-2 India advanced to June 2008, and then retrogressed almost four years during the first quarter of FY 2014. EB-2 India did not advance again until the summer months, eventually reaching May 2009 in September before retrogressing again in November. Although the decision has been made to start advancing the cut-off date at this time, it is possible EB-2 India may only advance into the summer of 2009 by September. Charlie anticipates that as a result of greater/earlier demand for EB-2 numbers due to EB-3 India applicants "upgrading," there will be less "end of year" movement than in past years."​

There is no mention of the implementation of Obama's immigration actions at all. Oh seems to have made that up.

[sportsfan33]

A 4 to 6 month periodic movement is poison pill for original EB2I filers. I don't get why the DOS is suddenly doing it this way. This guarantees that the dates will not see much advance beyond May 2009 at all, since porting will consume a majority of spillover throughout the year as the date keeps advancing.

[qesehmk]

A 4 to 6 month periodic movement is poison pill for original EB2I filers. I don't get why the DOS is suddenly doing it this way. This guarantees that the dates will not see much advance beyond May 2009 at all, since porting will consume a majority of spillover throughout the year as the date keeps advancing.
4-6 months movement means Originally DOS overshot when they retrogressed. So this is nothing but a correction.

[imdeng]

The worst case scenario of PD not moving more than just a few months seems to be in play. All releases hint at PD not passing the summer of 2009.

Man this sucks! I need ~3.5 months movement; and even that is not a sure shot this year.

[nathang]

The worst case scenario of PD not moving more than just a few months seems to be in play. All releases hint at PD not passing the summer of 2009.

Man this sucks! I need ~3.5 months movement; and even that is not a sure shot this year.

Based on Ron's posting, the dates may move into summer of 2009. Summer starts on 21 June and ends late September. So shouldn't you be current then?

Or does the post mean that dates will not go beyond 21 June?

[helooo]

Hi Gurus,
When will the new inventory release?
thanks

[gcpursuit]

Spec,Q and other gurus,

Forgive me for my ignorance. I was looking at trackitt I-140 data for EB1C from October 2014 to Jan 2015 based on USCIS received date and found that to be very less (1/4th) when compared to the data from October 2013 to Jan 2014.

Is that because people update trackitt very late and may show up in coming months or has the Eb1C filings reduced?

[mechanical13]

Spec,Q and other gurus,

Forgive me for my ignorance. I was looking at trackitt I-140 data for EB1C from October 2014 to Jan 2015 based on USCIS received date and found that to be very less (1/4th) when compared to the data from October 2013 to Jan 2014.

Is that because people update trackitt very late and may show up in coming months or has the Eb1C filings reduced?

I think a more likely explanation is that USCIS is approving E1C so fast and efficiently that the applicants simply never reach a state of mind where they need to register on trackitt. From all indications, EB1C is at an all time high, and EB2 is the new EB3.

It is pretty depressing, but you could be a physician, you may be a NSF fellow with publications in Nature and Science or you may win the Nobel prize...but USCIS will still give you an RFE and you'll be crapping in your pants, expecting to get a 485 denial.

If you are EB1C, however, USCIS is processing applications on a priority basis. It doesn't matter if you're submitting proposals to outsource 100,000 jobs to Asia. You'll get your GC in 6 months or less from the day you get off the boat.

The basis for US skilled immigration has reached a new low in this country, and the definition of extraordinary ability is being massively abused - and there is no reform in sight. Sigh.

[skpanda]

Any body know why DOS stopped publishing the demand data? I do not see it since several months. Is there a way to get the latest information?

Thanks!

[gten20]

Hi Gurus,
When will the new inventory release?
thanks

Gurus.. when will the Jan inventory be released?

[tenyearsgone]

EAD/AP renewal and India travel
-------------------------------------


My spouse's EAD/AP renewal is pending. We are planning on traveling to India and the planned return date is 3-4 days before expiry of current AP. Is there anything to be concerned about during re-entry given the proximity of the AP expiry date?


We are also planning on getting our H1B stamped during our visit since we don't want to deal with the stress of the 120-day EAD deadlines next time around. I am curious to know what happens in a 221G situation. Do they retain our passport or give it back? Can we return to the US using AP for re-entry and effectively refuse further H1B processing?

Gurus, please move to a separate thread after a response. Thanks in advance.

[jimmys]

Hi,
I'm hearing that there are about 4K FB spillover to be applied to EB in FY 15. How that's split between categories? Just EB2I and EB3I(Most retrogressed countries' categories) will get 2K each provided all other categories (EB1, EB4 and EB5) take care of themselves?

[Spectator]

Hi,
I'm hearing that there are about 4K FB spillover to be applied to EB in FY 15. How that's split between categories? Just EB2I and EB3I(Most retrogressed countries' categories) will get 2K each provided all other categories (EB1, EB4 and EB5) take care of themselves?The extra visas are allocated exactly as the original 140,000 would be:

EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%

28.6% of 140,000 (40,040) increases to 28.6% of 144,000 (41,184) based on an extra 4,000 visas from FB.
7.1% of 140,000 (9,940) increases to 7.1% of 144,000 (10,224) based on an extra 4,000 visas from FB.

The 7% limit rises proportionately. Overall it would become 25,900 (from 25,620) across the total for FB and EB. If you prefer, the 7% limit for India in EB2/EB3 would increase from 2,803 to 2,883 in each Category.

See this DOS publication (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf).

[jimmys]

The extra visas are allocated exactly as the original 140,000 would be:

EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%

28.6% of 140,000 (40,040) increases to 28.6% of 144,000 (42,184) based on an extra 4,000 visas from FB.
7.1% of 140,000 (9,940) increases to 7.1% of 144,000 (10,224) based on an extra 4,000 visas from FB.

The 7% limit rises proportionately. Overall it would become 25,900 (from 25,620) across the total for FB and EB. If you prefer, the 7% limit for India in EB2/EB3 would increase from 2,803 to 2,883 in each Category.

See this DOS publication (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf).

I think you meant 41,184. But I got the message. Thanks for the explanation Spec.

[krishn]

looks like last year around march uscis started issuing mass-rfe's for EB3I and EB2I. Will they start around that time to have the medicals etc done and completed valid medical reports be on file by july ? did they give like 60 days time to respond to rfe ?

Generally for the Medicals and EVL how much time does usics give to respond back ?