EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[imdeng]

Folks - anybody got EAD/AP renewed recently? How long did it take? I am at day 67 and am wondering whether some kind of follow-up is needed.

[incredible]

Thank you very much. We have postponed my travel to March just to wait out this whole thing. I do understand a lot more questions. I saw on Trackitt as well people returning back from India visit talking about extra questions but no major issues as such.


Hi Incredible,
I just got back from India recently. While this whole mess is flip flopping, be prepared to answer extra questions even though right now that issue is on hold. I landed 28th with an AP at Newark NJ in the middle of all that sh!t storm and had to answer a lot more questions then I ever did for all my prior trips put together. The stories from other folks are similar even now.

[incredible]

Hi imdeng
I have renewed it back in November and it took less than half of what it already took for you. But May be it was just timing with number of applications etc. Also I heard about the new rule where you can still work for another 180 days or something even if you are waiting for EAD approval (beyond the expiry of current EAD). Is that official already ?


Folks - anybody got EAD/AP renewed recently? How long did it take? I am at day 67 and am wondering whether some kind of follow-up is needed.

[incredible]

Hi imdeng
I have renewed it back in November and it took less than half of what it already took for you. But May be it was just timing with number of applications etc. Also I heard about the new rule where you can still work for another 180 days or something even if you are waiting for EAD approval (beyond the expiry of current EAD). Is that official already ?

I was referring to this :

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Verification/I-9%20Central/FactSheets/Fact-Sheet-AutoExtendEAD.pdf

[tenyearsgone]

Folks - anybody got EAD/AP renewed recently? How long did it take? I am at day 67 and am wondering whether some kind of follow-up is needed.

RD:Oct 11, 2016
EAD Approved: Jan 23, 2017
EAD Received: Jan 30, 2017

It cut very close to the EAD/AP (and DL) expiry date. Although the new rule allows for 180 day extension (even for applications filed before 01/17/2017), the I9 validation method is framed such that, for applications filed in 2016, it is not possible to use the new rule. This is because the validation requires that your receipt notice shows the category under which you applied for extensions is eligible for extension - typically C09. The same was confirmed by company attorneys as well as by the I9 Central team (via email).

New I-9 validation rules/factsheet with screenshots available here: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Verification/I-9%20Central/FactSheets/Fact-Sheet-AutoExtendEAD.pdf

USICS is apparently refusing expedite requests based on the new rule which says that the 120-day approval requirement is no longer valid. That said, there were reports that USICS is trying to speed up and approve the applications filed before Jan 17 to mitigate the issue. I would suggest you to raise SR etc after 75 days irrespective, esp. if you are working on EAD.

[iatiam]

Folks - anybody got EAD/AP renewed recently? How long did it take? I am at day 67 and am wondering whether some kind of follow-up is needed.

Mine took almost 80 days and my wife's took close to 90. I was almost about to contact USCIS when the card was mailed.

Iatiam

[self.coach]

Folks - anybody got EAD/AP renewed recently? How long did it take? I am at day 67 and am wondering whether some kind of follow-up is needed.


Folks - anybody got EAD/AP renewed recently? How long did it take? I am at day 67 and am wondering whether some kind of follow-up is needed.

I had applied for my and spouse's EAD/AP in October, and it was expiring on Feb 2nd. A USCIS Fact Sheet on Jan 30 saved me - it said that all applicants who have applied on a timely manner will get 180 days automatic extension. My HR supported me and updated the i-9 and I continued work. I took the USCIS fact sheet to the local Drivers License office, explained them the automatic extension to get my Drivers License renewed for 180 days (till Aug 2017). Even though the end result looks effortless, there was a lot of hoopla that ensued during this time. Here's the timeline:

Oct 2017: Applied for EAD/AP Renewal (my expired on 2/2, my wife's expired on 1/23)
Jan 22 2017: Called up lawyer, submitted a couple of USCIS inquiries on what is going on
Jan 23 2017: Wife takes furlough from work, as her EAD is expired. Logistical nightmare for me - picking up kids etc. is now an issue. Also a financial impact.
Jan xx 2017: USCIS publishes that all new applicants of EAD renewal (C9 group) going forward will be eligible for extension automatically, for up to 180 days. Lawyer says this does not apply to me because my application was submitted in October.
Jan 30 2017: Lawyer suggests to submit new i765 so that this new application can now be eligible for extension. Company and HR agree and we submitted new i-765. We agreed to NOT withdraw the previous i-765.
Jan 30 2017: As luck would have it, USCIS publishes fact sheet about 180 days EAD extension applying to those who submitted EAD renewals on time. Too bad that we had already fedexed our new i-765 by the time we came to know about this.
Feb 2 2017: My EAD and Drivers License expired. I took the fact sheet and miraculously convinced the drivers license office to extend my license for 180 days. Remember my receipt from my first i-765 application did not contain verbiage about automatic extensions. License is renewed for 180 days for both myself and my wife.
Feb 13 2017: I get a notice indicating card is under production for my first i-765 application, and my wife's (only) i-765 applicatoin. No news about about my second i-765 application. Also, no news about AP renewals yet - so cannot travel out of the country.


Last year, if you check my posts, same thing had happened but since there was no USCIS fact sheet or notification about automatic extension, I had to take a furlough of about 6 weeks (unpaid) from work. Stayed home, played xbox and gained a few pounds. This year, there was same anxiety but work was not affected.

[imdeng]

Thanks folks for all the replies. The EAD Auto-Extend was a nice parting gift from the Obama admin.

[gkjppp]

I had applied for my and spouse's EAD/AP in October, and it was expiring on Feb 2nd. A USCIS Fact Sheet on Jan 30 saved me - it said that all applicants who have applied on a timely manner will get 180 days automatic extension. My HR supported me and updated the i-9 and I continued work. I took the USCIS fact sheet to the local Drivers License office, explained them the automatic extension to get my Drivers License renewed for 180 days (till Aug 2017). Even though the end result looks effortless, there was a lot of hoopla that ensued during this time. Here's the timeline:

Oct 2017: Applied for EAD/AP Renewal (my expired on 2/2, my wife's expired on 1/23)
Jan 22 2017: Called up lawyer, submitted a couple of USCIS inquiries on what is going on
Jan 23 2017: Wife takes furlough from work, as her EAD is expired. Logistical nightmare for me - picking up kids etc. is now an issue. Also a financial impact.
Jan xx 2017: USCIS publishes that all new applicants of EAD renewal (C9 group) going forward will be eligible for extension automatically, for up to 180 days. Lawyer says this does not apply to me because my application was submitted in October.
Jan 30 2017: Lawyer suggests to submit new i765 so that this new application can now be eligible for extension. Company and HR agree and we submitted new i-765. We agreed to NOT withdraw the previous i-765.
Jan 30 2017: As luck would have it, USCIS publishes fact sheet about 180 days EAD extension applying to those who submitted EAD renewals on time. Too bad that we had already fedexed our new i-765 by the time we came to know about this.
Feb 2 2017: My EAD and Drivers License expired. I took the fact sheet and miraculously convinced the drivers license office to extend my license for 180 days. Remember my receipt from my first i-765 application did not contain verbiage about automatic extensions. License is renewed for 180 days for both myself and my wife.
Feb 13 2017: I get a notice indicating card is under production for my first i-765 application, and my wife's (only) i-765 applicatoin. No news about about my second i-765 application. Also, no news about AP renewals yet - so cannot travel out of the country.


Last year, if you check my posts, same thing had happened but since there was no USCIS fact sheet or notification about automatic extension, I had to take a furlough of about 6 weeks (unpaid) from work. Stayed home, played xbox and gained a few pounds. This year, there was same anxiety but work was not affected.

Hi Self.Coach, I am in the same boat. My DL expires in 2 weeks. In which state/City you renewed your DL on pending EAD? I want to give it a try in Frisco/TX. What documents we need to take along with us?

[self.coach]

Hi Self.Coach, I am in the same boat. My DL expires in 2 weeks. In which state/City you renewed your DL on pending EAD? I want to give it a try in Frisco/TX. What documents we need to take along with us?

Iowa.

I took the printout of USCIS factsheet that was published on Jan 30, my i797, a couple of proof of addresses (which they did not really look at), my I-485 application and expired EAD cards. The DL examiner was not prepared to take me in after looking at the docs and did not give me the waiting number because she said that my I-797 receipt (for my EAD renewal application) said all fees were $0.00 and that they should contain a dollar amount of $380 something. I immediately realized she was either confusing me with some other scenario like asylum or simply did not know the rules. So I gave her my I-485 receipt and told her that maybe this is what you are referring to. She got confused, so I got my lawyer on the phone and they exchanged a 30 second conversation (luckily).

She deferred the case to the DL supervisor, who straight away refused to talk to the lawyer first. But she did spend the time to look at all my documents, read the fact sheet, cross-check the fact sheet on the USCIS website. After that she gave us a number and allowed us to sit in the waiting line.

When our numbers were called, the DL examiner in the booth had to call the supervisor and ask what were the next steps, She said to renew DL for 180 days (after initial talks of renewing for 30 days). Finally, my wife and I got a paper license for 30 days and were told that the mailed in license would expire in 180 days.

After I completed the visit, I realized that my company's immigration lawyer had sent me an email asking if it is okay to discuss my case with the local immigration liaison with the Department of Transportation. Since my problem got resolved without that, I respectfully declined, but maybe something to consider in your case? I cannot guarantee the results though as I did not go through that.

I provided a complete snapshot here so you can see the possible options. I believe that in my case it was a bit difficult because I went of Feb 2nd, about 2 days after the USCIS factsheet was published, so mine was the first such case probably at the DL office (also considering the lesser number of Indians in that county).

I hope you don't face so much trouble. Make sure to remain patient, respectful, and assertive during the whole process and best luck!

All of this took a total of about 2.5 hours. My kids seemed a bit shocked going through this experience, as they saw us in that kind of pleading, helpless plight for the first time ever. My son even asked me "why was that lady not nice to us - did we do something wrong".

In all fairness, I believe the DL examiner and supervisor were just doing their jobs, and they made the right decision.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Looks like this thread is a discussion of everything else other than "EB2-3 predictions". It is becoming more like trackitt where people hop on the most active thread and post personal queries.

[self.coach]

Looks like this thread is a discussion of everything else other than "EB2-3 predictions". It is becoming more like trackitt where people hop on the most active thread and post personal queries.

I responded in here because of what was posted. But I am sure that all these posts will be moved to the relevant section by the admin. This has happened before.

[tracgc]

October 2016 I-485 pending inventory for EB2-India shows pending numbers till June 2016,

I485 Pending inventory:
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_October_2016.pdf

Question, visa bulletin priority dates for EB2-India never reached July 2016, how are applicants able to apply I-485 and how there are pending cases in the list up to July 2016?

Thanks in advance!

[almost]

Dear All,
I have an EB2 PD of May 1 2009 and was today talking to a colleague with a PD of May 9 2009. Both of us applied for EAD renewal a month apart (him in nov and myself in Dec) and both of us got the confirmation emails roughly a month apart with mine coming in a few days ago. The peculiar thing in his case is that he also had a mention of his 485 being approved in either the same email or a separate email (I am not entirely sure). Apparently he spoke to his attorney and he was advised to make a call to the service center who said it might take upto 60 days and was given the usual blah blah about processing times. He also mentioned that there have been other cases like his. My question is has anyone heard anything like this? My first reaction was that probably was a bug or a glitch as the priority date is still June 1 08 per the latest bulletin. Any thoughts on this or has anyone else heard anything similar?

[qesehmk]

It's been a while the USCIS has been approving the cases but not adjudicating them unless a visa is available from DOS.

Perhaps that's what this is. In normal cases the visa is available within 60 days. Hence the standard response from the rep.


Dear All,
I have an EB2 PD of May 1 2009 and was today talking to a colleague with a PD of May 9 2009. Both of us applied for EAD renewal a month apart (him in nov and myself in Dec) and both of us got the confirmation emails roughly a month apart with mine coming in a few days ago. The peculiar thing in his case is that he also had a mention of his 485 being approved in either the same email or a separate email (I am not entirely sure). Apparently he spoke to his attorney and he was advised to make a call to the service center who said it might take upto 60 days and was given the usual blah blah about processing times. He also mentioned that there have been other cases like his. My question is has anyone heard anything like this? My first reaction was that probably was a bug or a glitch as the priority date is still June 1 08 per the latest bulletin. Any thoughts on this or has anyone else heard anything similar?

[Nishant_imt]

Folks - anybody got EAD/AP renewed recently? How long did it take? I am at day 67 and am wondering whether some kind of follow-up is needed.

I did. Iit took exactly 3 months.

[imdeng]

According to Greg Siskind, travel on AP is going to get a lot tougher even for AoS folks - as per the new DHS Memo.

[tenyearsgone]

According to Greg Siskind, travel on AP is going to get a lot tougher even for AoS folks - as per the new DHS Memo.

Here's the relevant snippet from his blog:

Source: http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2017/02/19/siskind-summary-dhs-final-memo-on-implementing-borderinterior-enforcement-executive-orders/

"K. Proper Use of Parole Authority Pursuant to Section 212(d)(5) of the INA USCIS, CBP and ICE shall ensure that “pending the issuance of final regulations clarifying the appropriate use of the parole power, appropriate written policy guidance and training is provided to employees within those agencies exercising parole authority, [including advance parole], so that such employees are familiar with the proper exercise of parole under Section 212(d)(5) of the INA and exercise parole under that provision and exercise such parole authority only on a case-by-case basis, consistent with written policy guidance.” This would seemingly jeopardize the entire advance parole process for green card applicants who only have to show travel is needed for business or personal reasons versus showing a humanitarian of public benefit reason for their travel. Parole-in-place and other parole programs are seemingly in jeopardy as well.
"

I think this will come down to how the USCIS/CBP enforce the rule. Just like how everyone thought the "dropbox" has been terminated, but it wasn't.

[iatiam]

According to Greg Siskind, travel on AP is going to get a lot tougher even for AoS folks - as per the new DHS Memo.

Can someone please confirm if 485 AP will be affected? My understanding is that 485 AP does not come under humanitarian clause. Why is Siskind railing against it? As an imm. attorney, he should know better. Or is he trying to generate some free publicity?

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Can someone please confirm if 485 AP will be affected? My understanding is that 485 AP does not come under humanitarian clause. Why is Siskind railing against it? As an imm. attorney, he should know better. Or is he trying to generate some free publicity?

Iatiamiatam,

No-one knows yet whether it will be affected, since the Memo hasn't been published and implemented. The latest version, which Greg refers to can be found here (http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/white-house/article133607789.ece/BINARY/DHS%20implementation%20border%20security%20policie s).

My best guess is that the "written policy guidance" mentioned in the Memo will allow AP for AOS cases to continue as at present, but nothing in the Memo actually exempts it and nobody knows what the "written policy guidance" will be at this time.

AP for AOS applicants is granted under INA Section 212(d)(5). It's a discretionary benefit granted by DHS (USCIS) and the policy has always been that a showing of Urgent Humanitarian Need or Significant Public Benefit has not been required for this type of Advance Parole. There's nothing in the INA guaranteeing the issue of AP to AOS applicants, or the reasons required for it to be granted.

I think Greg is correct to flag the potential issue (although I might have used different words to do so).

a) AP for AOS applicants is issued under the relevant INA statute affected by the EO/Memo.
b) The mention of Advance Parole (as opposed to merely Parole) is new in the latest version of this proposed Memo.

A previous EO on the White House site entitled "Executive Order: Border Security and Immigration Enforcement Improvements (https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/25/executive-order-border-security-and-immigration-enforcement-improvements)" says this in relation to Parole:


(d) The Secretary shall take appropriate action to ensure that parole authority under section 212(d)(5) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(d)(5)) is exercised only on a case-by-case basis in accordance with the plain language of the statute, and in all circumstances only when an individual demonstrates urgent humanitarian reasons or a significant public benefit derived from such parole.

That's quite a draconian statement. There's no "ifs and buts" in it (case-by-case and needing to show urgent humanitarian reasons or significant public benefit).

You see the problem. Ill thought out and poorly written documents potentially introduce unforeseen consequences.



Aside from this issue, I'm very worried about the erosion of protections for large classes of people who habitually reside in the USA. Until now, they have generally been afforded the same protections as anybody else, including citizens.

It seems some of these protections have already been lost (at least for DHS data) due to the EOs. For example, the EO (on the White House site) entitled "Executive Order: Enhancing Public Safety in the Interior of the United States (https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/01/25/presidential-executive-order-enhancing-public-safety-interior-united)" contains this language.


Sec. 14. Privacy Act.

Agencies shall, to the extent consistent with applicable law, ensure that their privacy policies exclude persons who are not United States citizens or lawful permanent residents from the protections of the Privacy Act regarding personally identifiable information.

This is a very slippery slope in my opinion. I just hope other non DHS privacy laws still afford some protections. It has distinct echoes of "First they came for the ......".

[iatiam]

Spec,

Thank you for such an excellent explanation. Hope Mr. President recruits you to his administration! On one side, I have been frustrated by the lack of movement for EB2/3 India and the EB4 visas going to juvenile immigrants. So on one hand I want some level of enforcement to be implemented. However, on the other hand this administration has taken the pendulum all the way to the other side.

Iatiam

[imdeng]

Wow Spec! You don't mince words. It is very disheartening what is happening.

I read through the memo again - and it does feel like it is targeted towards AP granted to folks like DACA recipients. It does not seem to target AOS people - but AOS may get caught in the net here.

[suninphx]

Wow Spec! You don't mince words. It is very disheartening what is happening.

I read through the memo again - and it does feel like it is targeted towards AP granted to folks like DACA recipients. It does not seem to target AOS people - but AOS may get caught in the net here.

No clarity yet.

https://www.murthy.com/2017/02/20/leaked-dhs-memos-detail-how-executive-orders-will-be-implemented/

[imdeng]

Quick news for folks waiting for EAD approvals - the 180 day automatic extension works beautifully. Just gone mine done. If you applied for renewal before the rule got into effect then USCIS will send you another receipt notice that explicitly states the 180 day auto-extension. I would imagine that would be helpful for DL extensions - though I haven't tried that yet.

[vedu]

Quick news for folks waiting for EAD approvals - the 180 day automatic extension works beautifully. Just gone mine done. If you applied for renewal before the rule got into effect then USCIS will send you another receipt notice that explicitly states the 180 day auto-extension. I would imagine that would be helpful for DL extensions - though I haven't tried that yet.

Good to know, Imdeng! Although I just got my EAD renewed and I am now set until 2019. EAD has become like a mini green card. No need to depend on the employer, no need of a lawyer. It's like renewing your driver's license!

[iatiam]

EB-1 Worldwide: expected to remain current through September 2017.

EB-1 China and India: demand had decreased compared to earlier in the fiscal year. If this reduced level of demand is sustained into the summer, a cut-off date may not have to be imposed until August 2017. Of course, if demand goes back up, a cut-off date could be imposed earlier.

EB-2 and EB-3 China: In the March Visa Bulletin, the EB-3 China Final Action date is 15 months ahead of EB-2 China. This will likely result in downgrades from EB-2 to EB-3, but that is not likely to materialize until April or May. This means that EB-2 won’t be able to move as much for now and the gap between EB-2 and EB-3 will likely remain for the spring. Demand for EB-3 China is starting to increase, but it is not a substantial increase and the monthly usage in this category has been below the targeted number. This means there are some reserved in case EB-3 China demand starts to increase more rapidly.

EB-2 India: There seems to be slightly lower demand for upgrades from EB-3 to EB-2 which allowed for more forward movement than previously expected. The date was also moved forward to try to limit the impact of expiring medical exams. It is hoped that this category will advance at a pace of up to one month at a time for April, May and June. However, if EB-3 upgrades increase once again, movement in this category could slow or stop in the coming months.

EB-3 Worldwide: demand remains relatively low. Movement at a pace of up to three months at a time in this category is still expected through the spring.

EB-3 India: extremely limited forward movement expected.

EB-3 Philippines: Lower demand for EB-1 and EB-2 Philippines has allowed additional numbers to fall down to EB-3 Philippines and this category may advance up to six months at a time for April, May, and June.

EB-5 China: should continue to advance at a rate of only 1 to 2 weeks through the spring.


Source: http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-as-of-february-2017/

[username1]

I received EAD for only 1 year this time, all other times it was for 2 years. Does anybody else have similar experience? Why would they renew it for 1 year only this time. Is my PD expected to be current in the coming year? Or is there something else going on?
EAD applied 12/23/16 TSC, received approval notice 2/25/17 4th renewal. PD 8/2009, EB2I. My PD is pretty close to imdeng.

[EB3Iwaiting]

http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-as-of-february-2017/[/url]

EB3ROW demand continues to be low, which is good news for EB3I. Looks like porters have thinned out till 2008 too which is good news for EB2I. The only problem is the vertical SO of EB1-P and EB2-P to EB3-P. As Spec pointed out correctly, more EB3-P numbers essentially mean less ROW quota overall, which could translate to less SO for EB3I.

[iatiam]

EB3ROW demand continues to be low, which is good news for EB3I. Looks like porters have thinned out till 2008 too which is good news for EB2I. The only problem is the vertical SO of EB1-P and EB2-P to EB3-P. As Spec pointed out correctly, more EB3-P numbers essentially mean less ROW quota overall, which could translate to less SO for EB3I.

Overall, this bodes well for EB category. My questions are about EB4 and EB5. With the surge of kids from the south slowing down, can we expect some SO from EB4 this year. CO has indicated forward movement for this category in summer.

Also, the new rules for EB5. If the investment amount is increased, would it provide more SO to EB category? What are the chances of the new rule being implemented. I heard they will publish them for comments in April. Is this true?

Spec, could you please care to comment.

Iatiam

[4WatItsWorth]

Spec or Others who understand this,

EB3 Row is at Dec2016 in March bulletin. Now it is predicted to move forward by another 3 months, which will take it to Feb or Mar2017. For April2017, how is that not practically current? And, how can it move forward another 3 months for the subsequent bulletins? Why do you think the category is not being marked "C"?

[rocketfast]

If approximately 80% of the H1B visas are being given to Indians and around 9% to Chinese, where is the EB2 ROW and EB3 ROW demand getting generated from? It looks like I am missing something very obvious here. Can someone please help me figure out where is approximately 70,000 EB2/3 ROW demand coming from?

[Spectator]

Overall, this bodes well for EB category. My questions are about EB4 and EB5. With the surge of kids from the south slowing down, can we expect some SO from EB4 this year. CO has indicated forward movement for this category in summer.

Also, the new rules for EB5. If the investment amount is increased, would it provide more SO to EB category? What are the chances of the new rule being implemented. I heard they will publish them for comments in April. Is this true?

Spec, could you please care to comment.

Iatiam
Iatiam,

I don't think extra spillover in the short term is likely at all. Any changes take time to propagate and IMO we're talking years, not months to see any changes.

EB4

My understanding is the SIJ process is quite long winded. There's a court process before being able to apply for an I-360.

There is also a substantial backlog of cases (and retrogression), which represent several years of approvals.

During FY2016, 19,475 SIJ I-360 petitions were received (up from 11,500 in FY2015 and 5,776 in FY2014).
During FY2016, 15,101 SIJ I-360 petitions were approved (up from 8,739 in FY2015 and 4,606 in FY2014).

As at the end of FY2016, 8,533 SIJ I-360 petitions were still pending (up from 4,357 in FY2015 and 1,826 in FY2014).

Currently the Countries most affected by SIJ have an EB4 Final Action Date of 15JUL15 (about 20 months) for pending I-485 applications.

Even if the flow from the courts stopped yesterday there appears to be at least 2 1/2 years worth of SIJ cases already in the system.


EB5

Any changes will not be retrospective to I-526 cases that are already pending. There might be a dip in new I-526 petitions initially, but that will probably be offset by a surge of applications before any changes become effective.

The number of existing pending EB5 cases is very large.

As of November 1, 2016, NVC reported 24,629 EB5 cases awaiting Consular Processing, 93% of which were Chinese. EB5-C is currently nearly 3 years retrogressed.

It's currently taking 16 months for USCIS to process an I-526. That's actually significantly down from previous reports.

As at the end of FY2016, there were 20,804 pending I-526 cases. Using the FY2016 approval ratio and historic dependent ratio, that could be demand for another 49.2k visas. The current total known demand could therefore be as high as 73.8k (or slightly over 7 years).

My personal opinion is that a change in the minimum investment from $500k to $1.3M (as I have seen proposed) would likely not produce spillover from EB5. The vast majority of EB5 investors are Chinese and I suspect there are more than enough prepared and able to meet the proposed increased investment amount. At best I think it might lower the amount of retrogression that EB5-C sees in the future.

It's probably academic as far as EB2 is concerned. With increasing retrogression for some Countries within EB1, any spillover from either EB4 or EB5 will be entirely used by EB1.

[iatiam]

Iatiam,
It's probably academic as far as EB2 is concerned. With increasing retrogression for some Countries within EB1, any spillover from either EB4 or EB5 will be entirely used by EB1.

Why did CO then claim that EB1 demand is less. It's been a while since I have seen him use that word. I was hoping to see some SO from EB1 this FY to EB2. If there is no cut-off for EB1I this year, wouldn't that mean SO to EB2.

On similar note, wouldn't reduction in demand from EB2ROW and EB3ROW translate to SO for EB2I and EB3I respectively.

What am I missing?

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Why did CO then claim that EB1 demand is less. It's been a while since I have seen him use that word. I was hoping to see some SO from EB1 this FY to EB2. If there is no cut-off for EB1I this year, wouldn't that mean SO to EB2.

On similar note, wouldn't reduction in demand from EB2ROW and EB3ROW translate to SO for EB2I and EB3I respectively.

What am I missing?

Iatiam

CO didn't say that there wouldn't be a Cut Off Date in EB1.


EB-1 China and India: demand had decreased compared to earlier in the fiscal year. If this reduced level of demand is sustained into the summer, a cut-off date may not have to be imposed until August 2017. Of course, if demand goes back up, a cut-off date could be imposed earlier.

I believe he may be being quite optimistic in that view and that a COD on EB1-IC may be necessary earlier than last year.

The last time CO mentioned EB2-WW (January 2017) he said demand was strong and that EB2-I might not receive more than the per country limit if it continued.


If demand for EB-2 Worldwide remains strong, it is unlikely that EB-2 India will be able to benefit from any unused numbers and may be restricted to its 2,800 per country limit.

Before that, in the December 2016 VB he said:


Second:

Current for the foreseeable future. But, based on the current demand pattern it appears likely that it will be necessary to impose a Worldwide, Mexico, and Philippines Final Action Date no later than July.


That may or may not still be still the case, but it doesn't speak to low demand for EB2-WW either, especially if you consider EB2-WW was retrogressed for 2 months at the end of FY2016 and would have to accommodate 14 months in FY2017 within the numbers available.

Philippines use within their overall 7% limit may well limit the SO available within EB3 to EB3-I. I admit I don't feel I fully understand what's going on in EB3.

[EB3Iwaiting]

I admit I don't feel I fully understand what's going on in EB3.

Spec, can you please elaborate? Would like to pick your brain and know your thought process.

[zenmaster]

I received EAD for only 1 year this time, all other times it was for 2 years. Does anybody else have similar experience? Why would they renew it for 1 year only this time. Is my PD expected to be current in the coming year? Or is there something else going on?
EAD applied 12/23/16 TSC, received approval notice 2/25/17 4th renewal. PD 8/2009, EB2I. My PD is pretty close to imdeng.

Same with me. I got the renewal only for 1 year this time. PD 5/2009.

[srimurthy]

Did everyone read this INA ACT 216:

(e) Every alien, eighteen years of age and over, shall at all times carry with him and have in his personal possession any certificate of alien registration or alien registration receipt card issued to him pursuant to subsection (d). Any alien who fails to comply with the provisions of this subsection shall be guilty of a misdemeanor and shall upon conviction for each offense be fined not to exceed $100 or be imprisoned not more than thirty days, or both.

[self.coach]

Did everyone read this INA ACT 216:

(e) Every alien, eighteen years of age and over, shall at all times carry with him and have in his personal possession any certificate of alien registration or alien registration receipt card issued to him pursuant to subsection (d). Any alien who fails to comply with the provisions of this subsection shall be guilty of a misdemeanor and shall upon conviction for each offense be fined not to exceed $100 or be imprisoned not more than thirty days, or both.

Yes, I did. I believe this has been around for a while, no? This probably means that we must carry GC or i94 or copy of visa at all times. For EAD folks, would the EAD card suffice?

Also do we need to keep original or copy with us?

[imdeng]

Got my EAD yesterday - and it is for 2 years. I have no idea what criteria they are using. Its clearly not PD as people with PD close to mine have received 1 year EAD.

Also - this time they sent an actual approval notice. Before it was just the EAD with a mailer sheet - no separate approval notice.

[kash80]

As I-94 is now electronic, will showing it on a phone suffice?

[EB3Iwaiting]

April VB is out: https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-april-2017.html

EB2I moved 3 weeks - 22ND JUNE 08

EB3I moved 2 days - 24th March 05

Historic day for EB3I! I have never seen movement by days. Its either no movement or 1 week movement. I guess CO did it cos end of March is densely populated.

[anuprab]

April VB is out: https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-april-2017.html

EB2I moved 3 weeks - 22ND JUNE 08

EB3I moved 2 days - 24th March 05

Historic day for EB3I! I have never seen movement by days. Its either no movement or 1 week movement. I guess CO did it cos end of March is densely populated.

haha, i dont know to laugh or cry about this..but seriously wtf. he could have kept it at March 22 for another decade and no one waiting in this category would have raised an eyelid! why 2 days??

[Spectator]

haha, i dont know to laugh or cry about this..but seriously wtf. he could have kept it at March 22 for another decade and no one waiting in this category would have raised an eyelid! why 2 days??
As has been mentioned before, over 2/3 of March 2005 EB3-I cases are concentrated in the period March 22 to March 31.

The 2 days covered in the movement (March 22 and March 23 2005) probably contain between 350-400 cases (likely around 17% of all March 2005 cases). That's more than a week of previous movement in March 2005 contained.

The 2 days after that are the most congested. March 24 and March 25 probably contain around 1,000 cases between them (about 46% of March 2005).

It's quite possible the next movement could be only one day, unless it happens at a time when SO can cover the movement.

PS Although it has happened a very, very, very long time ago, this is the first time I have seen a movement to a date that was not either 1, 8, 15 or 22 in the month. I believe the above figures suggest why it has happened.

[maverick23]

As has been mentioned before, over 2/3 of March 2005 EB3-I cases are concentrated in the period March 22 to March 31.

The 2 days covered in the movement (March 22 and March 23 2005) probably contain between 350-400 cases (likely around 17% of all March 2005 cases). That's more than a week of previous movement in March 2005 contained.

The 2 days after that are the most congested. March 24 and March 25 probably contain around 1,000 cases between them (about 46% of March 2005).

It's quite possible the next movement could be only one day, unless it happens at a time when SO can cover the movement.

PS Although it has happened a very, very, very long time ago, this is the first time I have seen a movement to a date that was not either 1, 8, 15 or 22 in the month. I believe the above figures suggest why it has happened.

In the April visa bulletin - EB3 China final action date is ahead of filing date. Why were the Filing dates not moved with the Final Action date?

Shouldn't DOS move the filing date 3 to 6 months in advance of the final action date catching up to complete the pre-adjudication process (the very intent of the dual chart visa bulletin system) ? Or is it a rule that filing dates would only move once a year at the beginning of the fiscal year?

What happens for EB3 India if we're to get some spillover this summer? If dates do move past march 2005 in summer will we see similar to China where the final action date cross the filing date of 01 JUL 05?

Shouldn't the filing date be moved prior ?

[maverick23]

In the April visa bulletin - EB3 China final action date is ahead of filing date. Why were the Filing dates not moved with the Final Action date?

Shouldn't DOS move the filing date 3 to 6 months in advance of the final action date catching up to complete the pre-adjudication process (the very intent of the dual chart visa bulletin system) ? Or is it a rule that filing dates would only move once a year at the beginning of the fiscal year?

What happens for EB3 India if we're to get some spillover this summer? If dates do move past march 2005 in summer will we see similar to China where the final action date cross the filing date of 01 JUL 05?

Shouldn't the filing date be moved prior ?

[anuprab]

As has been mentioned before, over 2/3 of March 2005 EB3-I cases are concentrated in the period March 22 to March 31.

The 2 days covered in the movement (March 22 and March 23 2005) probably contain between 350-400 cases (likely around 17% of all March 2005 cases). That's more than a week of previous movement in March 2005 contained.

The 2 days after that are the most congested. March 24 and March 25 probably contain around 1,000 cases between them (about 46% of March 2005).

It's quite possible the next movement could be only one day, unless it happens at a time when SO can cover the movement.

PS Although it has happened a very, very, very long time ago, this is the first time I have seen a movement to a date that was not either 1, 8, 15 or 22 in the month. I believe the above figures suggest why it has happened.

Thanks Spec and I understand that. But then if there are so many cases around these dates, why aren't mass RFEs being issued? I am seeing some flurry of activity om trackitt for RFEs..

[bookworm]

Quick news for folks waiting for EAD approvals - the 180 day automatic extension works beautifully. Just gone mine done. If you applied for renewal before the rule got into effect then USCIS will send you another receipt notice that explicitly states the 180 day auto-extension. I would imagine that would be helpful for DL extensions - though I haven't tried that yet.

Does anybody have a link or a guide on what to fill in the boxes on the i-9 for reverification? The drop downs are kind of confusing. Appreciate any guidance that the community can offer.

[Spectator]

FY2016-EB Visa Approvals


- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,711 --- 2,837 --- 2,815 ----- 107 -- 7,516 --- 19,986
INDIA ---- 10,985 --- 3,930 --- 4,617 ----- 720 ---- 149 --- 20,401
MEXICO ---- 1,720 --- 1,449 --- 2,058 ----- 765 ----- 57 ---- 6,049
PHIL. ------- 173 --- 1,985 --- 6,579 ----- 164 ----- 16 ---- 8,917
ROW ------ 24,134 -- 28,910 -- 21,471 --- 8,273 -- 2,209 --- 84,997

TOTAL ---- 43,723 -- 39,111 -- 37,540 -- 10,029 -- 9,947 -- 140,350


S. KOREA -- 1,547 --- 5,157 --- 6,153 ----- 514 -----260 --- 13,631


More detail at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2667-FY2016-DOS-Visa-Report?p=58279#post58279

Original Data - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2016AnnualReport/FY16AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

[amulchandra]

FY2016-EB Visa Approvals


- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,711 --- 2,837 --- 2,815 ----- 107 -- 7,516 --- 19,986
INDIA ---- 10,985 --- 3,930 --- 4,617 ----- 720 ---- 149 --- 20,401
MEXICO ---- 1,720 --- 1,449 --- 2,058 ----- 765 ----- 57 ---- 6,049
PHIL. ------- 173 --- 1,985 --- 6,579 ----- 164 ----- 16 ---- 8,917
ROW ------ 24,134 -- 28,910 -- 21,471 --- 8,273 -- 2,209 --- 84,997

TOTAL ---- 43,723 -- 39,111 -- 37,540 -- 10,029 -- 9,947 -- 140,350


S. KOREA -- 1,547 --- 5,157 --- 6,153 ----- 514 -----260 --- 13,631


More detail at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2667-FY2016-DOS-Visa-Report?p=58279#post58279

Original Data - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2016AnnualReport/FY16AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

Thank you very much Spec.

I am having a complete melt down looking at EB3 allocation. Will this atrocity being committed by USCIS ever end?

At least EB 3 I would have received 2000 more visas and the current date would have been past 2005 March if they did not over allocate EB1 India. I am completely hopeless. USCIS will never learn form its past mistakes.

[imdeng]

Spec - do you foresee South Korea getting a PD anytime soon? They should be close enough to the 7% limit.

I am amazed that right now EB1/2/3 demand from China might be lower than that from S.Korea.

What they are doing to EB3I is nothing short of shocking! 3K more visas that the category deserved would have gone a very long way in helping people waiting for a long long time.

[imdeng]

It is an atrocity. Why even have limits if you are going to not stick to it at all. A couple hundred deviation would make some sense but 3K is not an oversight - it a deliberate attempt at making sure EB1 stays C at the cost of EB3I people waiting for ages.

Thank you very much Spec.

I am having a complete melt down looking at EB3 allocation. Will this atrocity being committed by USCIS ever end?

At least EB 3 I would have received 2000 more visas and the current date would have been past 2005 March if they did not over allocate EB1 India. I am completely hopeless. USCIS will never learn form its past mistakes.

[qesehmk]

Amul

These are not mistakes. These are conscious decisions and choices made.

So there is no question of learning from it.


USCIS will never learn form its past mistakes.

[Spectator]

Spec - do you foresee South Korea getting a PD anytime soon? They should be close enough to the 7% limit.
imdeng,

No.

Under the system where the per Country limit is calculated over the sum of FB and EB, South Korea don't even remotely approach it.

The 7% limit in FY2016 was determined to be 25,644 (see September 2016 VB).

South Korea used 1,250 FB visas and 13,631 EB visas for a total of 14,881 preference visas. They could have used an additional 10,763 visa before reaching the overall 7% limit.



It is an atrocity. Why even have limits if you are going to not stick to it at all. A couple hundred deviation would make some sense but 3K is not an oversight - it a deliberate attempt at making sure EB1 stays C at the cost of EB3I people waiting for ages.
imdeng,

I agree that the overshoot of the EB1 allocation is unforgivable.

EB1-China and EB1-India were retrogressed for the last 2 months of FY2016. Trackitt suggests visas stopped being allocated nearly a month before that.

Whatever the case, it was clearly far too late and retrogression for China and India in EB1 should have started at least 4 months before the end of the FY. Despite EB1-WW having demand under their allocation, once the overall EB1 limit was reached, CO should have retrogressed the entire category.

It wasn't rocket science. At no point in the FY was there any prospect of SO to EB1 from EB4 or EB5.

It makes it even odder that CO said in the March VB that a COD for EB1-IC may not be necessary until August 2017. From the (scant) evidence available, there is no compelling reason to believe that demand has dropped significantly from last year (or at all).

[amulchandra]

Amul

These are not mistakes. These are conscious decisions and choices made.

So there is no question of learning from it.

I am getting very frustrated and restless with July 2006 EB3 I PD. Hoping to see the light at end of the tunnel in the next 10-12 months. This never ending inefficiency in visa allocation by USCIS adds to the long drawn battle and makes it more stressful. Can we write to ombudsman and get an explanation for this?

[newyorker123]

Amul

These are not mistakes. These are conscious decisions and choices made.

So there is no question of learning from it.


Can you please elaborate - why would they do this ? Favor EB1C, and be opposed to EB3C ?
The only reason I can think of is the EB1 WITCH lobbying heavily for EB1.
Can this fraud not be exposed somehow ?

[newyorker123]

Amul

These are not mistakes. These are conscious decisions and choices made.

So there is no question of learning from it.


Can you please elaborate why they would do this ? Favor EB1 and act against EB3C ?
The only reason that I can think of is the EB1 lobby playing behind the scenes.
Can we not bring up this point against them somehow ?

[gcq]

I am getting very frustrated and restless with July 2006 EB3 I PD. Hoping to see the light at end of the tunnel in the next 10-12 months. This never ending inefficiency in visa allocation by USCIS adds to the long drawn battle and makes it more stressful. Can we write to ombudsman and get an explanation for this?
Unless we do something about it, nothing is going to change. CO continues to marginalize EB3-I. It is high time he is kicked out of his office for his incompetence ! Blame ourselves for not doing anything about it !

[newyorker123]

Unless we do something about it, nothing is going to change. CO continues to marginalize EB3-I. It is high time he is kicked out of his office for his incompetence ! Blame ourselves for not doing anything about it !

Did the CO not change with the new Trump administration ?

[qesehmk]

We can only speculate why they do it. But the reason these are not mistakes are 1) They happen time and again. 2) Mistakes imply incompetence. Why would you assume incompetence when on the whole USA is a pretty well run country.

As per DoS' motivations - it is possible that outsourcing companies and their clients have a larger interest in pushing for EB1-C than EB2/3 simply because the EB2/3 are individuals whereas EB1-C particularly is a manager managing teams of people that are driving economic benefit for American companies. EB2/3 on the other hand is taking away a local job right here.


Can you please elaborate why they would do this ? Favor EB1 and act against EB3C ?
The only reason that I can think of is the EB1 lobby playing behind the scenes.
Can we not bring up this point against them somehow ?

[gcq]

Experts, could you briefly explain the over allocation to EB1-I and under allocation to EB3-I. I would like to draft a letter to CO and lawmakers.

[maverick23]

FY2016-EB Visa Approvals


- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,711 --- 2,837 --- 2,815 ----- 107 -- 7,516 --- 19,986
INDIA ---- 10,985 --- 3,930 --- 4,617 ----- 720 ---- 149 --- 20,401
MEXICO ---- 1,720 --- 1,449 --- 2,058 ----- 765 ----- 57 ---- 6,049
PHIL. ------- 173 --- 1,985 --- 6,579 ----- 164 ----- 16 ---- 8,917
ROW ------ 24,134 -- 28,910 -- 21,471 --- 8,273 -- 2,209 --- 84,997

TOTAL ---- 43,723 -- 39,111 -- 37,540 -- 10,029 -- 9,947 -- 140,350


S. KOREA -- 1,547 --- 5,157 --- 6,153 ----- 514 -----260 --- 13,631




More detail at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2667-FY2016-DOS-Visa-Report?p=58279#post58279

Original Data - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2016AnnualReport/FY16AnnualReport-TableV.pdf

Does Philippines allocation 6579 immigrant visas in EB3 (Table V) inclusive of the data reported in Table VI - 5153? Just want to clarify whether Philippines received a total of 6579 visa in the EB3 category or 11732 visas in 2016?

[Spectator]

Does Philippines allocation 6579 immigrant visas in EB3 (Table V) inclusive of the data reported in Table VI - 5153? Just want to clarify whether Philippines received a total of 6579 visa in the EB3 category or 11732 visas in 2016?Yes, the 5,153 is included in the 6,579.

Table VI shows visas issued a Consulates only (CP) : Preference Immigrant Visas Issued (by Foreign State of Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2016

Table V shows AOS approvals and visa issued via CP : Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State of Chargeability):
Fiscal Year 2016

[EB3Iwaiting]

In FY 2015, EB2I was over allocated and some 3K GCs were under allocated to EB3I. In FY 2016, the same thing happened with EB1 being over allocated and EB3I missing out on some 2.5KGCs. Even EB2 got some 900 GCs less. In the EB3I category, where people have been waiting for more than a decade, that's a loss of 5.5K GCs over 2 years. Pushes back the wait time by another 2 years if simply going by annual quota.

There is no doubt that there is huge bias and discrimination going on. Like Spec said, there was no way that EB1 was getting any SO so CO should have immediately stopped issuing visas to EB1 once their 40k was allocated. But in order to keep EB1ROW C, he over allocated them and EB2I to some extend and of course, EB3Is paid the price. In his head, EB1s contribute more to the economy than EB3s, so the discrimination sets in. Also, he may think EB3Is are already waiting for 10+ years - what harm is there is adding 2 more years to the wait.

I am sure this thing will continue again this year for his zeal to keep EB1 Current as long as he can. His other fascination is to keep EB2ROW at C while giving EB3ROW a cutoff date. And EB3Is will continue to pay the price.

[Spectator]

I thought it might be useful to show in a simplified form, who did well and who did not in FY2016, compared to the expected numbers due to retrogression in the categories.

I've had to make some assumptions, such as assuming that Countries in EB1 received an equal % extra allocation of visa numbers.

FY2016 Winners and Losers

EB Allocation - 140,338
EB Actual ----- 140,350
Difference --------- 12

Winners --------- Extra -- % Extra
EB1-C ----------- 1,216 ---- 27.1%
EB1-I ----------- 2,370 ---- 27.1%
EB2-C -------------- 27 ----- 1.0%
EB2-I ----------- 1,120 ---- 39.9%
EB3-C ------------- 305 ---- 12.2%
EB4-ROW ------------ 65 ----- 0.7%
Total ----------- 5,103

Losers ----------- Loss ---- % Loss
EB2-ROW/M/P ---- (2,173) ---- (6.3%)
EB3-non C ------ (2,901) ---- (7.7%) -- (62.8%) if all visas had been allocated to EB3-I
EB5-C ------------- (17) ---- (0.2%)
Total ---------- (5,091)

Net Win ------------ 12

[anuprab]

In FY 2015, EB2I was over allocated and some 3K GCs were under allocated to EB3I. In FY 2016, the same thing happened with EB1 being over allocated and EB3I missing out on some 2.5KGCs. Even EB2 got some 900 GCs less. In the EB3I category, where people have been waiting for more than a decade, that's a loss of 5.5K GCs over 2 years. Pushes back the wait time by another 2 years if simply going by annual quota.

There is no doubt that there is huge bias and discrimination going on. Like Spec said, there was no way that EB1 was getting any SO so CO should have immediately stopped issuing visas to EB1 once their 40k was allocated. But in order to keep EB1ROW C, he over allocated them and EB2I to some extend and of course, EB3Is paid the price. In his head, EB1s contribute more to the economy than EB3s, so the discrimination sets in. Also, he may think EB3Is are already waiting for 10+ years - what harm is there is adding 2 more years to the wait.

I am sure this thing will continue again this year for his zeal to keep EB1 Current as long as he can. His other fascination is to keep EB2ROW at C while giving EB3ROW a cutoff date. And EB3Is will continue to pay the price.

This is outright blasphemy and CO needs to be sacked right now for doing this. Who gave him the authority to overstep the legal limits. I am disgusted, each year I think this is it and CO deliberately under-allocates to EB3I. What's more no one -not one lawyer firm, not one AILA rep questions him on this. Isnt there anything we can do about this? There has to be something...This has to stop or else Eb3I will suffer this year too. I have waited 11 years so I know 12 wont matter but thats not a valid reason for ME!

[EB3Iwaiting]

Looking at the low EB3ROW numbers, I was hoping that EB3I would eventually get some 6k (conservative) to even 10k (optimistic) overall GCs this FY. But what's the point. Even if that happens, CO will probably take away 3k to 5k from EB3 and give it to EB1. EB3I is completely at the mercy at CO and whatever he throws down.

[anuprab]

Looking at the low EB3ROW numbers, I was hoping that EB3I would eventually get some 6k (conservative) to even 10k (optimistic) overall GCs this FY. But what's the point. Even if that happens, CO will probably take away 3k to 5k from EB3 and give it to EB1. EB3I is completely at the mercy at CO and whatever he throws down.

is there anyway we can ask why is he doing this when he has the monthly check-ins with AILA? no wonder he doesnt say anything on this category because all he is interested in is giving away visas to other category and then throw down the leftover to EB3I, despite it being above his authority!!

[gcq]

is there anyway we can ask why is he doing this when he has the monthly check-ins with AILA? no wonder he doesnt say anything on this category because all he is interested in is giving away visas to other category and then throw down the leftover to EB3I, despite it being above his authority!!
We can do this ourselves. And only we will do. Nobody else cares including **. What can we do next ? Let us comeup with a 'scientific' description and calculation as to how Eb3-I was discriminated against. ( This is not something new, he has done in 2009 as well). Once we have this, we will draft a letter to CO himself and all relevant lawmakers pointing this out. Our calculations should be right so that CO cannot rubbish our claims. Once the letter is ready, let us each send this letter. So please come up with the numbers how we were under allocated and why. My INA reading is a bit old, otherwise I could do that. Gurus please help.

My memory leads me here.
EB category has 140K visa per annum. Among these categories visas are equally divided between EB1, EB2 and EB3. So total allocation of each EB1, EB2 and EB3 category should be same. EB1 sees an over allocation in total and EB1-India has over allocation among EB1. Am I right ? Please correct me if I am wrong.

[qesehmk]

Guys - most of you probably may not know this ... but gcq already has received his own GC.

So it is mighty gracious of him to offer his help.

My 2 cents are .. don't make it personal to your category or country. Simply make a point - how fair it is for those waiting in GC line in EB category to be discriminated based on the country origin.

We can do this ourselves. And only we will do. Nobody else cares including **. What can we do next ? Let us comeup with a 'scientific' description and calculation as to how Eb3-I was discriminated against. ( This is not something new, he has done in 2009 as well). Once we have this, we will draft a letter to CO himself and all relevant lawmakers pointing this out. Our calculations should be right so that CO cannot rubbish our claims. Once the letter is ready, let us each send this letter. So please come up with the numbers how we were under allocated and why. My INA reading is a bit old, otherwise I could do that. Gurus please help.

My memory leads me here.
EB category has 140K visa per annum. Among these categories visas are equally divided between EB1, EB2 and EB3. So total allocation of each EB1, EB2 and EB3 category should be same. EB1 sees an over allocation in total and EB1-India has over allocation among EB1. Am I right ? Please correct me if I am wrong.

[gcq]

Thanks Q !

[geniusmag]

Guys - most of you probably may not know this ... but gcq already has received his own GC.

So it is mighty gracious of him to offer his help.

My 2 cents are .. don't make it personal to your category or country. Simply make a point - how fair it is for those waiting in GC line in EB category to be discriminated based on the country origin.

Cannot believe that in this day and age, we have a system where folks are judged and discriminated based on their country of birth. Totally against the basic principal of equality to all.
Only if Indians could stop their infighting and challenge this in a law of court.

[EB3Iwaiting]

January 2017 pending inventory is out:

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_January_2017.pdf

Version does not include numbers from field offices. Most remain unchanged. The big difference: The EB3ROW pending inventory went up from 9.6k to 15.6k. 2015 saw a huge jump from 455 to 6973. How is this possible with 2015 being current in EB3ROW for so long? Where were all these applicants just 3 months ago??

Can the gurus explain? Or I am inclined to think the EB3ROW numbers are fake to show that EB3I will not get any SO as those GCs will be siphoned to EB1.

[bikenlalan]

From the latest inventory, they cleaned up cases for EB2-I 2011 and beyond, and for EB3-I from 2008 and beyond.
There was an addition of 900 cases for EB3-I for PD 2000 (Nov and Dec). Not sure where these cases popped up from.

[newyorker123]

January 2017 pending inventory is out:

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_January_2017.pdf

Version does not include numbers from field offices. Most remain unchanged. The big difference: The EB3ROW pending inventory went up from 9.6k to 15.6k. 2015 saw a huge jump from 455 to 6973. How is this possible with 2015 being current in EB3ROW for so long? Where were all these applicants just 3 months ago??

Can the gurus explain? Or I am inclined to think the EB3ROW numbers are fake to show that EB3I will not get any SO as those GCs will be siphoned to EB1.


Can this be true ? This is so utterly ridiculous - How can they cheat so blatantly ? Experienced Gurus here - can nothing be done to stop this behavior ?

[oraclept]

Experts any affect on GC with 28% reduction on DOS budget ?
Will it help EB2,EB3-I ?
http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/16/politics/trump-budget-cuts/index.html?sr=twCNN031617trump-budget-cuts0605PMVODtopLink&linkId=35543838

[EB3Iwaiting]

Experts any affect on GC with 28% reduction on DOS budget ?
Will it help EB2,EB3-I ?
http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/16/politics/trump-budget-cuts/index.html?sr=twCNN031617trump-budget-cuts0605PMVODtopLink&linkId=35543838

It will lead to 28% more mis-allocation of GCs.

[anuprab]

It will lead to 28% more mis-allocation of GCs.

right said..beyond frustrating to see year after year EB3I being denied their righfull SO quota. YTEleven's chart would have been true had the CO decided not to $%^& this category up royally.

[bourne_ny]

Hello Experts,

I have a question based on the data below which is from the Annual reports from 2008 to 2016.

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Year EB1 EB2 EB3 Total (EB1 + EB2 +EB3) Total (EB2 + EB3)
2008 5,326 14,806 3,745 23,877 18,551
2009 6,672 10,106 2,304 19,082 12,410
2010 6,741 19,961 3,036 29,738 22,997
2011 4,563 23,997 4,002 32,562 27,999
2012 9,506 19,726 2,804 32,036 22,530
2013 9,640 17,193 7,816 34,649 25,009
2014 12,978 23,527 3,526 40,031 27,053
2015 12,253 7,235 7,026 26,514 14,261
2016 10,985 3,930 4,617 19,532 8,547

Avg(08-16) 8,740 15,609 4,320 28,669 19,929
Avg(08-14) 8,350 19,085 3,915 31,350 23,000

I don’t understand the huge drop in spill overs towards EB2 in 2015 (7,235) and 2016 (3,930). In the years before 2015 which I guess were also heavy porting years (some if not all), EB2 averaged around 19,000 (2008 to 2014 reaching as high as almost 24000 in 2011 and 2014) with the minimum in 2009 (10,106).

I see the numbers for EB1 have gone up starting 2012 but not as much. Total for all 3 categories in 2016 is 19,532 (lowest since 2009 when it was 19,082 but that could be becauseEB1 numbers for 2009 are low as well: 6,672). The total for EB2 + EB3 in 2016 is actually the lowest: 8,547 (lowest since 2009 when it was 12,410). Not sure since I only looked at India numbers so it could probably well be due to the high demand from other countries but is this a new trend or will we fall back to higher spillovers for EB2 or EB3, the two most retrogressed categories? If this is the new trend what’s the reason for such a steep drop in EB2 numbers as I’m not sure if porting is the reason?

EB2 + EB3 are at the lowest since 2009, EB1 for 2016 (10,985) has gone up but not in huge numbers, it was 9,640 in 2013.

Please feel free to correct anything that is wrong, I’m just trying to learn and might be mistaken. I understand all the above numbers are higher than the maximum allocation limit of 2800 for EB2 and EB3. I was just wondering because the numbers for EB1 have not gone up by much since 2012(9,506) but the spillover was still pretty large for EB2 from 2012 to 2014 and very small in 2016

1143

[Jonty Rhodes]

It will lead to 28% more mis-allocation of GCs.

2 things.

1. This budget will never pass in Senate as it is. Either it would not be touched at all or it would end up having significant changes before it passes and would look completely different when it comes out. Happened with pretty much all the budgets proposed in the past too over last many decades.

2. To mis-allocate green cards, they don't need to have a lean budget and be short of funds or staff. They are mis-allocating it even when they don't have any budget issue being fully staffed and funded. They are competently incompetent. :p

[qesehmk]

There are two explanations at a high level 1) The improving economy and 2) Systemic discrimination faced by EB-I.

1) The economy became better and better and increased demand across the board including ROW demand. Given how spillovers are entirely dependent on ROW - no wonder EB2/3 are affected. EB5 hasn't helped nor EB4 religious folks. They are coming in droves and so no spillovers.

2) Systemic discrimination - this is a very nuanced point. I have been analyzing GC allocation since 2005. In my observation DoS has a visceral feeling against allocating any GC visas to Indians. They will find every excuse to divert visas to other countries. First they simply used to not give out visas. When there was a huge uproar over this and in 2003 visas were recaptured via a bill ... they started allocating visas by conveniently applying a wrong interpretation of visa allocation (fall down rather than across) interpretation. When that was declared illegal .... for a few years they had to allocated 20-30K visas to EB2I which came to a halt when they started clearing other countries backlogs - first in 485 then in 140 and then at labor level. In last few years we are seeing them allocating EB visas to FB categories under the pretense that 7% rule is across EB and FB categories.

One can argue my arguments here and there ... and that's fine ... what one can't argue is the fact that Indians are the most discriminated people in green card allocation. Just because you were born in India makes you the lowlife of green card allocation.

Hello Experts,

I have a question based on the data below which is from the Annual reports from 2008 to 2016.

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports.html

Year EB1 EB2 EB3 Total (EB1 + EB2 +EB3) Total (EB2 + EB3)
2008 5,326 14,806 3,745 23,877 18,551
2009 6,672 10,106 2,304 19,082 12,410
2010 6,741 19,961 3,036 29,738 22,997
2011 4,563 23,997 4,002 32,562 27,999
2012 9,506 19,726 2,804 32,036 22,530
2013 9,640 17,193 7,816 34,649 25,009
2014 12,978 23,527 3,526 40,031 27,053
2015 12,253 7,235 7,026 26,514 14,261
2016 10,985 3,930 4,617 19,532 8,547

Avg(08-16) 8,740 15,609 4,320 28,669 19,929
Avg(08-14) 8,350 19,085 3,915 31,350 23,000

I don’t understand the huge drop in spill overs towards EB2 in 2015 (7,235) and 2016 (3,930). In the years before 2015 which I guess were also heavy porting years (some if not all), EB2 averaged around 19,000 (2008 to 2014 reaching as high as almost 24000 in 2011 and 2014) with the minimum in 2009 (10,106).

I see the numbers for EB1 have gone up starting 2012 but not as much. Total for all 3 categories in 2016 is 19,532 (lowest since 2009 when it was 19,082 but that could be becauseEB1 numbers for 2009 are low as well: 6,672). The total for EB2 + EB3 in 2016 is actually the lowest: 8,547 (lowest since 2009 when it was 12,410). Not sure since I only looked at India numbers so it could probably well be due to the high demand from other countries but is this a new trend or will we fall back to higher spillovers for EB2 or EB3, the two most retrogressed categories? If this is the new trend what’s the reason for such a steep drop in EB2 numbers as I’m not sure if porting is the reason?

EB2 + EB3 are at the lowest since 2009, EB1 for 2016 (10,985) has gone up but not in huge numbers, it was 9,640 in 2013.

Please feel free to correct anything that is wrong, I’m just trying to learn and might be mistaken. I understand all the above numbers are higher than the maximum allocation limit of 2800 for EB2 and EB3. I was just wondering because the numbers for EB1 have not gone up by much since 2012(9,506) but the spillover was still pretty large for EB2 from 2012 to 2014 and very small in 2016

1143

[amulchandra]

Hi Q/spec and other gurus here,

Any idea when EB3 India might reach 2006? If USCIS and DOS did not screw up the allocation it would have been cleared by this time. Given this incompetence and past trends can you guys provide some insights? Really appreciate your thoughts. This has been a very long frustrating process and now I am becoming restless.

Best Regards
Amulchandra

[eb2visa]

https://www.oig.dhs.gov/assets/TM/2017/OIGtm-JR-031617.pdf

Check this. Are there any allocation errors going on because of the new system rolled out in May 2013? See the last section in page 3 to page 4.



There are two explanations at a high level 1) The improving economy and 2) Systemic discrimination faced by EB-I.

1) The economy became better and better and increased demand across the board including ROW demand. Given how spillovers are entirely dependent on ROW - no wonder EB2/3 are affected. EB5 hasn't helped nor EB4 religious folks. They are coming in droves and so no spillovers.

2) Systemic discrimination - this is a very nuanced point. I have been analyzing GC allocation since 2005. In my observation DoS has a visceral feeling against allocating any GC visas to Indians. They will find every excuse to divert visas to other countries. First they simply used to not give out visas. When there was a huge uproar over this and in 2003 visas were recaptured via a bill ... they started allocating visas by conveniently applying a wrong interpretation of visa allocation (fall down rather than across) interpretation. When that was declared illegal .... for a few years they had to allocated 20-30K visas to EB2I which came to a halt when they started clearing other countries backlogs - first in 485 then in 140 and then at labor level. In last few years we are seeing them allocating EB visas to FB categories under the pretense that 7% rule is across EB and FB categories.

One can argue my arguments here and there ... and that's fine ... what one can't argue is the fact that Indians are the most discriminated people in green card allocation. Just because you were born in India makes you the lowlife of green card allocation.

[bvsamrat]

Thanks Q.
I wonder if this exploitation starts right from the PERM from the employer side and attorney combined.
I think many of the MS guys are offered EB3 at PERM stage itself so that they are stuck in place for decades.
How many new Eb3I would be in the pipeline with PDs' of 2016? despite knowing well that it would take decades to get a result?




There are two explanations at a high level 1) The improving economy and 2) Systemic discrimination faced by EB-I.

1) The economy became better and better and increased demand across the board including ROW demand. Given how spillovers are entirely dependent on ROW - no wonder EB2/3 are affected. EB5 hasn't helped nor EB4 religious folks. They are coming in droves and so no spillovers.

2) Systemic discrimination - this is a very nuanced point. I have been analyzing GC allocation since 2005. In my observation DoS has a visceral feeling against allocating any GC visas to Indians. They will find every excuse to divert visas to other countries. First they simply used to not give out visas. When there was a huge uproar over this and in 2003 visas were recaptured via a bill ... they started allocating visas by conveniently applying a wrong interpretation of visa allocation (fall down rather than across) interpretation. When that was declared illegal .... for a few years they had to allocated 20-30K visas to EB2I which came to a halt when they started clearing other countries backlogs - first in 485 then in 140 and then at labor level. In last few years we are seeing them allocating EB visas to FB categories under the pretense that 7% rule is across EB and FB categories.

One can argue my arguments here and there ... and that's fine ... what one can't argue is the fact that Indians are the most discriminated people in green card allocation. Just because you were born in India makes you the lowlife of green card allocation.

[qesehmk]

BVSamrat, As you observed correctly indeed those filing today in EB3 are in for a very long wait unless something fundamentally changes.

However it is not just EB3 - same is true for EB2 today. Both are severely backlogged for EB-I.


Thanks Q.
I wonder if this exploitation starts right from the PERM from the employer side and attorney combined.
I think many of the MS guys are offered EB3 at PERM stage itself so that they are stuck in place for decades.
How many new Eb3I would be in the pipeline with PDs' of 2016? despite knowing well that it would take decades to get a result?

[bvsamrat]

Q. I just wanted to overview the big picture which is sometimes missed. Select horses for the courses
If it is for jobs and settling in Us, then the route through MS is quite long and uncertain as it has been since last 10 years.
I am not sure if campus recruitment is good and effective.
One of my known friends from IIT got admission in a top US PHD college in 2006, but left after 1 year once he saw the situation. Went back joined an IT firm and came back soon to settle in USA.



BVSamrat, As you observed correctly indeed those filing today in EB3 are in for a very long wait unless something fundamentally changes.

However it is not just EB3 - same is true for EB2 today. Both are severely backlogged for EB-I.

[gcq]

I was looking at april visa bulletin.
EB3-I moved only 2 days from 22-MAR-05 to 24-MAR-05. However EB3 ROW is at 15FEB17.

Doesn't it mean that EB3-ROW is going to be current in not so distant future ?
March 2017 bulletin (https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-march-2017.html)

April 2017 bulletin (https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-april-2017.html)

[EB3Iwaiting]

I was looking at april visa bulletin.
EB3-I moved only 2 days from 22-MAR-05 to 24-MAR-05. However EB3 ROW is at 15FEB17.

Doesn't it mean that EB3-ROW is going to be current in not so distant future ?
March 2017 bulletin (https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-march-2017.html)

April 2017 bulletin (https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-april-2017.html)

Technically, EB3ROW is Current and has been current for a while considering the PERM processing time. EB2ROW has a much higher pending inventory. Considering EB2 will not get any vertical SO, it is still at "C" while EB3ROW is not. It is CO's conservative nature, that is all which eventually leads to mis-allocation of visas. EB3s have always paid the highest price, including EB3ROW.

[qesehmk]

I must say he is a wise guy!
Q. I just wanted to overview the big picture which is sometimes missed. Select horses for the courses
If it is for jobs and settling in Us, then the route through MS is quite long and uncertain as it has been since last 10 years.
I am not sure if campus recruitment is good and effective.
One of my known friends from IIT got admission in a top US PHD college in 2006, but left after 1 year once he saw the situation. Went back joined an IT firm and came back soon to settle in USA.

[richie.rich]

Hello,

I have been following this forum for long and you guys are doing amazing job by helping others. Special thanks to those who are greened already and still answering the questions to the needy. :)

I am EB2-I and my PD is Sep 15, 2010. Can anyone calculate on my Dates for Filling or Final Action Dates to be current?

It's been almost a decade I went to India. I always thought that I will visit India once greened. I know that sounds crazy, but still waiting!!! ;)

[EB3Iwaiting]

Hello,

I have been following this forum for long and you guys are doing amazing job by helping others. Special thanks to those who are greened already and still answering the questions to the needy. :)

I am EB2-I and my PD is Sep 15, 2010. Can anyone calculate on my Dates for Filling or Final Action Dates to be current?

It's been almost a decade I went to India. I always thought that I will visit India once greened. I know that sounds crazy, but still waiting!!! ;)

If you are only looking to get greened and then go to India, you are probably looking at another decade of waiting. Probably more if CO feels more generous towards EB1.

[tenyearsgone]

If you are only looking to get greened and then go to India, you are probably looking at another decade of waiting. Probably more if CO feels more generous towards EB1.
On a cynical note.. you'll probably go to India within the next 10 years due to a immigration snafu than due to getting your GC. ;). There's no light at the end of the tunnel unless you can upgrade yourself to EB1.

Ironically .. have you noticed my username?? :D:D

[Spectator]

CO's remarks to AILA have started being published.

There's not a lot of concrete information on how dates might move (there was no comment about EB2/EB3 India), but CO did give some information about EB1 use by China and India in FY2017.


EB-1 India and China:

Per country limits of 2,800 visas has been reached for both, with EB-1 India using more than 9,000 numbers, and EB-1 China using more than 4,500 numbers. Once the spillover visa numbers from other categories have been used up, Final Action cut-off date "will likely be imposed for both countries at some point this summer."

I suppose it depends on your definition of "summer" and what the worldwide use is compared to last year, but action appears not more than 2 months away at most with that demand pattern.

For reference, EB1-China used 6,711 in FY2016 and EB1-India used 10,985 in FY2016. At the moment, it appears India will use a greater relative % of EB1 visas in FY2017 compared to China at the time "corrective action" is required than was the case in FY2016.


The article can be found here (http://myimmigrationlawyer.blogspot.com/2017/03/visa-bulletin-predictions-april-2017.html).

[suninphx]

CO's remarks to AILA have started being published.

There's not a lot of concrete information on how dates might move (there was no comment about EB2/EB3 India), but CO did give some information about EB1 use by China and India in FY2017.



I suppose it depends on your definition of "summer" and what the worldwide use is compared to last year, but action appears not more than 2 months away at most with that demand pattern.

For reference, EB1-China used 6,711 in FY2016 and EB1-India used 10,985 in FY2016. At the moment, it appears India will use a greater relative % of EB1 visas in FY2017 compared to China at the time "corrective action" is required than was the case in FY2016.


The article can be found here (http://myimmigrationlawyer.blogspot.com/2017/03/visa-bulletin-predictions-april-2017.html).

It looks like we will soon have more "International managers' than developers....wow....way to go

[abcx13]

CO's remarks to AILA have started being published.

There's not a lot of concrete information on how dates might move (there was no comment about EB2/EB3 India), but CO did give some information about EB1 use by China and India in FY2017.



I suppose it depends on your definition of "summer" and what the worldwide use is compared to last year, but action appears not more than 2 months away at most with that demand pattern.

For reference, EB1-China used 6,711 in FY2016 and EB1-India used 10,985 in FY2016. At the moment, it appears India will use a greater relative % of EB1 visas in FY2017 compared to China at the time "corrective action" is required than was the case in FY2016.


The article can be found here (http://myimmigrationlawyer.blogspot.com/2017/03/visa-bulletin-predictions-april-2017.html).


Bet most of the EB1-I usage was EB1-C. Have heard all kinds of stories about how Indian IT companies are making anyone manager.

Ridiculous system - discriminatory for sure but we have also made a total mockery of it.

[iatiam]

Bet most of the EB1-I usage was EB1-C. Have heard all kinds of stories about how Indian IT companies are making anyone manager.

Ridiculous system - discriminatory for sure but we have also made a total mockery of it.

I know two people who happen to be "Multi-national Managers". One guy was working in a shop for 35,000 dollars per year (17 dollar per hour) and the other guy was a manager in a grocery shop. Both got GCs in less than an year. Oh well...

[apsv11]

Is the termination of H-1B premium processing (albeit temporarily for 6 months) expected to have any impact on the availability of visa numbers?

[suninphx]

Bet most of the EB1-I usage was EB1-C. Have heard all kinds of stories about how Indian IT companies are making anyone manager.

Ridiculous system - discriminatory for sure but we have also made a total mockery of it.

I have heard that in some companies same resource reports 4-5 international managers at same time- if we go by org chart 😄😄- very creative... excellent

[smuggymba]

I have heard that in some companies same resource reports 4-5 international managers at same time- if we go by org chart ����- very creative... excellent

Some of this is true but some people who are offshore don't really exist (per companies they left after the applicant got his GC)

I don't get one simple thing - Why doesn't DOL/USCIS get the fact that how can one company need 5K managers every year that too in technology. common sense :(

[iatiam]

Some of this is true but some people who are offshore don't really exist (per companies they left after the applicant got his GC)

I don't get one simple thing - Why doesn't DOL/USCIS get the fact that how can one company need 5K managers every year that too in technology. common sense :(

True. Plus EB1A and EB1B are really scrutinized and hard to get; but not EB1C. I know someone with a PhD and several technical papers in cancer research. Apparently his immigration attorneys told that he doesn't have enough credentials to apply for EB1. Sad!

The biggest issue which will come back and bite this country is the decline in students in the universities.
http://indianexpress.com/article/education/study-abroad/us-universities-note-decline-in-education-applications-from-indian-students-4587412/

As soon as the news gets out that that getting MS and PhD from the US is a waste of time, then the university system will lose millions of dollars of revenue.

Iatiam

[abcx13]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-31/silicon-valley-s-darkest-immigration-secret-hits-u-s-cinemas

[Nishant_imt]

Its only going to be watched by Indians/chinese waiting for greencard. Meaning enough to make ot a commercial success. That's why a VC funded it.. coz it will bring him dough. No American lawmaker or any commoner would watch it. No one cares. Its only going to make few people rich. It will have no affect on policy making.




https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-31/silicon-valley-s-darkest-immigration-secret-hits-u-s-cinemas

[redsox2009]

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_fy2017_qtr1.pdf

Q1 performance data by USCIS.

In the data it showed 33256 approved 485 cases. Based on the trackit data and prevous trackit data, I was able to break down the estimate of the approvals.

EB1 India 6000
Non Indian 7500
EB2 India 714
ROW 9500
C+M+P 1200
EB3 India 1040
ROW 4500
C+M+P 2000

Don't scream at me if your numbers are different from mine.

[Jagan01]

May 2017 VB published.

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-may-2017.html

[zenmaster]

So, no movement in Final Action Dates.
2 Month drop in filing dates. Amazing :)

[EB3Iwaiting]

Yes, that was expected. EB2I finds it hard to move because of porters. But interestingly, look at the EB3I filing dates. It moved to 22nd April 2006. So, that is where they probably expect the dates to be by end of FY 2017. So, good SO coming for EB3I this year it seems.

Unless of course, CO decides to funnel the GCs to another category or DOL/USCIS starts processing ROWs faster to keep Indians waiting longer.

[Justmyself]

I have a basic question - Looking at the latest pending i nventory (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_January_2017.pdf), it is clear that EB2ROW has more demand than EB3ROW. In that case, why is EB2ROW current while EB3ROW is not? For more than a year, EB3ROW has consistently had low demand. What is stopping them from making the category current?

[amulchandra]

But interestingly, look at the EB3I filing dates. It moved to 22nd April 2006. So, that is where they probably expect the dates to be by end of FY 2017. So, good SO coming for EB3I this year it seems.

Unless of course, CO decides to funnel the GCs to another category or DOL/USCIS starts processing ROWs faster to keep Indians waiting longer.

Hi all,

What do you guys think about the filing dates movement for EB3 India. Do you guys think 2006 PDs will finally see the day light.

Thanks
Amul

[EB3Iwaiting]

Hi all,

What do you guys think about the filing dates movement for EB3 India. Do you guys think 2006 PDs will finally see the day light.

Thanks
Amul

Since CO updated the Filing dates very close to Q4, it seems he now has a pretty good idea of the SO that EB3I may end up getting. So, as per his latest calculations, EB3I should have its Final Action date around 22nd April 2006 by end of FY 2017. To reach that date, EB3I should get around 5200 GCs this year considering EB3I started at 1 March 2005. Last year EB3I received around 4500 GCs while taking into factor that some 2500 GCs were taken out from EB3 (which could have resulted in more EB3I GCs) and given to EB1 along with higher ROW PERM processing. This year ROW PERM demand is lower than last year, so India eventually getting 5200 GCs this year is certainly possible.

Considering the low ROW PERMs compared to last year, this year's EB3I GC allocation should actually be higher in my mind, but I presume CO will take out some from EB3 and give it to EB1 and there is also EB3P demand. So, considering these two factors, 5200 EB3I allocation for FY 2017 is certainly possible.

Spec and other gurus can of course provide their thoughts.

[amulchandra]

Since CO updated the Filing dates very close to Q4, it seems he now has a pretty good idea of the SO that EB3I may end up getting. So, as per his latest calculations, EB3I should have its Final Action date around 22nd April 2006 by end of FY 2017. To reach that date, EB3I should get around 5200 GCs this year considering EB3I started at 1 March 2005. Last year EB3I received around 4500 GCs while taking into factor that some 2500 GCs were taken out from EB3 (which could have resulted in more EB3I GCs) and given to EB1 along with higher ROW PERM processing. This year ROW PERM demand is lower than last year, so India eventually getting 5200 GCs this year is certainly possible.

Considering the low ROW PERMs compared to last year, this year's EB3I GC allocation should actually be higher in my mind, but I presume CO will take out some from EB3 and give it to EB1 and there is also EB3P demand. So, considering these two factors, 5200 EB3I allocation for FY 2017 is certainly possible.

Spec and other gurus can of course provide their thoughts.
Thank you very much. Hope your words come true.

[iatiam]

Since CO updated the Filing dates very close to Q4, it seems he now has a pretty good idea of the SO that EB3I may end up getting. So, as per his latest calculations, EB3I should have its Final Action date around 22nd April 2006 by end of FY 2017. To reach that date, EB3I should get around 5200 GCs this year considering EB3I started at 1 March 2005. Last year EB3I received around 4500 GCs while taking into factor that some 2500 GCs were taken out from EB3 (which could have resulted in more EB3I GCs) and given to EB1 along with higher ROW PERM processing. This year ROW PERM demand is lower than last year, so India eventually getting 5200 GCs this year is certainly possible.

Considering the low ROW PERMs compared to last year, this year's EB3I GC allocation should actually be higher in my mind, but I presume CO will take out some from EB3 and give it to EB1 and there is also EB3P demand. So, considering these two factors, 5200 EB3I allocation for FY 2017 is certainly possible.

Spec and other gurus can of course provide their thoughts.

Does it mean that some point in 2018 we will effectively deplete the entire EB3I inventory? If the dates move to April 2016 this year then there is only about 6,000 people more in the inventory left which could all be gone by the next year. Does it also mean the dates will move to generate inventory in 2018?

iatiam

[hope21]

I know two people who happen to be "Multi-national Managers". One guy was working in a shop for 35,000 dollars per year (17 dollar per hour) and the other guy was a manager in a grocery shop. Both got GCs in less than an year. Oh well...

I completely agree with you and I think I stated here previously also here. The only way the companies can be forced not to misuse the system is by forcing them to adhere to competitive salary structure (specifically when they are IT Managers and are paid only 55/65k and any IT Managers get paid more than 100k in the outside market). If these Indian IT companies are forced to follow this salary structure (like LCA salary), more than half of these positions will be gone (along with the GCs they are sponsoring for those Managers/L1 Visas) and lives of EB2 and EB3 folks will be a little easier.

[vedu]

So, no movement in Final Action Dates.
2 Month drop in filing dates. Amazing :)

EB2I situation is not as bad as it appears from the current visa bulletin. It is in a consolidation phase. In upcoming June visa bulletin, you will find that EB2I dates have advanced by a whooping 4 years on year-on-year basis!! Last June the dates were in 2004. It is unfortunate that spill-over/across situation is not good this year, but there are some other tailwinds to compensate for that. Come next year, porting will insignificant. EB3I is getting a good spillover this year and that will help.

All and all, I will be happy if EB3I ends up in 2006 and EB2I leaves 2008 behind by the end of current year! It looks like a certainty for EB3I and for EB2I, we will see!!

[imdeng]

EB3I inventory building is not far away. I would imagine that by the start of FY2019 (i.e Oct 2018) there won't be enough EB3Is left and they will have to shift to inventory building mode.

Does it mean that some point in 2018 we will effectively deplete the entire EB3I inventory? If the dates move to April 2016 this year then there is only about 6,000 people more in the inventory left which could all be gone by the next year. Does it also mean the dates will move to generate inventory in 2018?

iatiam

[imdeng]

I disagree. Situation for EB2I is worse than we even imagine. Yes - we may enter 2009 by end of current FY. But then we are looking at may be 3-5 years just to get out of 2009 - and 2009 is the lightest year in recent history as far as demand density is concerned. 2010 is dense comparatively - it will be not be 9-10 years from now until we reach end of 2010.

Of course things can change. Just see how quickly China demand evaporated in EB2/3. Same may happen to S. Korea. Trump slump may deepen in all immigration activities. We may have another recession that depresses job market. We may even have immigration legislation! But given current trends - EB2I situation is beyond dire - its nearly hopeless for people getting in the queue right now or those who joined in last couple years.

Pre 07/07 people lucked out - got EADs, pre 04/2010 people lucked out as USCIS over-inventoried and got EADs. Folks who joined after that need a similar lucky break as without EAD, I don't know how people will wait out for 8-10-more years.

EB2I situation is not as bad as it appears from the current visa bulletin. It is in a consolidation phase. In upcoming June visa bulletin, you will find that EB2I dates have advanced by a whooping 4 years on year-on-year basis!! Last June the dates were in 2004. It is unfortunate that spill-over/across situation is not good this year, but there are some other tailwinds to compensate for that. Come next year, porting will insignificant. EB3I is getting a good spillover this year and that will help.

All and all, I will be happy if EB3I ends up in 2006 and EB2I leaves 2008 behind by the end of current year! It looks like a certainty for EB3I and for EB2I, we will see!!

[knighthood83]

I disagree. Situation for EB2I is worse than we even imagine. Yes - we may enter 2009 by end of current FY. But then we are looking at may be 3-5 years just to get out of 2009 - and 2009 is the lightest year in recent history as far as demand density is concerned. 2010 is dense comparatively - it will be not be 9-10 years from now until we reach end of 2010.

Of course things can change. Just see how quickly China demand evaporated in EB2/3. Same may happen to S. Korea. Trump slump may deepen in all immigration activities. We may have another recession that depresses job market. We may even have immigration legislation! But given current trends - EB2I situation is beyond dire - its nearly hopeless for people getting in the queue right now or those who joined in last couple years.

Pre 07/07 people lucked out - got EADs, pre 04/2010 people lucked out as USCIS over-inventoried and got EADs. Folks who joined after that need a similar lucky break as without EAD, I don't know how people will wait out for 8-10-more years.

True with EB2. But folks in EB2 in 09 and 10 wont reverse port to EB3?

Will that not help since there might not be many left in EB3 in 08 , 09 and 10?

[Spectator]

To put some of the comments into perspective, here's the number of PERM certifications for India by PD year (from A number)

2007 - 23,098
2008 - 23,746
2009 - 16,672
2010 - 22,355
2011 - 30,014
2012 - 36,850
2013 - 36,145
2014 - 41,318
2015 - 45,427

It's unknowable to us how many cases in each year relate to porting to an earlier year, are new cases in the same category with an earlier PD established, represent cases where both spouses have a case etc etc, but it's probably fair to say that overall numbers have increased substantially since 2009.

[suninphx]

To put some of the comments into perspective, here's the number of PERM certifications for India by PD year (from A number)

2007 - 23,098
2008 - 23,746
2009 - 16,672
2010 - 22,355
2011 - 30,014
2012 - 36,850
2013 - 36,145
2014 - 41,318
2015 - 45,427

It's unknowable to us how many cases in each year relate to porting to an earlier year, are new cases in the same category with an earlier PD established, represent cases where both spouses have a case etc etc, but it's probably fair to say that overall numbers have increased substantially since 2009.
Even if we discount 20% for the factors cited above, and assume a moderate 70:30 EB2:EB3 ratio, the number of potential EB2I 485 applicants for year 2015(only) would be ~50K

[qesehmk]

Pre 07/07 people lucked out - got EADs, pre 04/2010 people lucked out as USCIS over-inventoried and got EADs. Folks who joined after that need a similar lucky break as without EAD, I don't know how people will wait out for 8-10-more years.
True. Here is my view.
Pre 2004 people (both EB2/3) lucked out due to visa recapture.
Pre 2007 EB2 got lucked out due to 2008 economic slow down and got GCs.
Pre 2010 folks at least got EADs during another wave (dont remember the timing).

But the road ahead is terribly tough for EB-India and overall EB category. The first thing that must happen is "Removal of Country Quota" and second thing that must happen is "Lifting or removal of Overall Cap for EB".


To put some of the comments into perspective, here's the number of PERM certifications for India by PD year (from A number)

2007 - 23,098
2008 - 23,746
2009 - 16,672
2010 - 22,355
2011 - 30,014
2012 - 36,850
2013 - 36,145
2014 - 41,318
2015 - 45,427

It's unknowable to us how many cases in each year relate to porting to an earlier year, are new cases in the same category with an earlier PD established, represent cases where both spouses have a case etc etc, but it's probably fair to say that overall numbers have increased substantially since 2009.

Thanks Spec. Excellent view of how demand has increased. Indeed barely 20% increase will be due to porting. But overall these are all H1Bs that have now matured and settled in their roles and are applying for GCs.

It is systemic racism to deny these people green cards.

Friends - this whole country cap is "SYSTEMIC RACISM". Lets start calling it that.

[pragmatic]

Hello everyone,

Real story here: After working in India for 3 years in a top company, I came to the US for Masters in a top university. After graduating in 2009, got a job in a top tech smartphone company. Unfortunately they didn't sponsor in EB2 and had to shift to another top tech company in Silicon Valley. And finally had my place in the EB2 line with a priority date of July 2014.

But after working long hours for so many years, I had a burnout and badly needed a break. After lot of contemplation, I finally had the realization that I'll never get a green card with a PD of July 2014.

So I migrated to Australia and now am working as a senior analyst and earning close to what I was in the US. I have the Australian PR (Green Card) and do not have any restrictions in terms of jobs or travel.

I am also starting my own company and it is off to a good start. I hope to make $500,000 within the next 4-5 years and invest that in the US (or move my company to US) and file for my green card in EB5.

I don't see any other alternative.

I urge all my fellow GC hopefuls to be open minded about other countries (or India) and just follow your dream and passion. If you are not happy at your place, just leave that place and find your next destination. Life is too short to waste hoping for a green card, which seems to take eternity at this pace. My personal view is that all the stress of layoffs, lack of promotions, long hours is just not worth it. Life is supposed to be full of happiness and joy, not stress and tension. At least that is my personal view.

Just my two cents. Thanks for reading.

Best of luck!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

True. Here is my view.
Pre 2004 people (both EB2/3) lucked out due to visa recapture.
Pre 2007 EB2 got lucked out due to 2008 economic slow down and got GCs.
Pre 2010 folks at least got EADs during another wave (dont remember the timing).

But the road ahead is terribly tough for EB-India and overall EB category. The first thing that must happen is "Removal of Country Quota" and second thing that must happen is "Lifting or removal of Overall Cap for EB".



Thanks Spec. Excellent view of how demand has increased. Indeed barely 20% increase will be due to porting. But overall these are all H1Bs that have now matured and settled in their roles and are applying for GCs.

It is systemic racism to deny these people green cards.

Friends - this whole country cap is "SYSTEMIC RACISM". Lets start calling it that.

I totally agree. I am one of those EB3 Folks who 'Lucked out'!! Hopefully folks in line will have some luck coming their way this in July.

[gcq]

Hello everyone,

Real story here:

Best of luck!
Congrats on making the bold move. Thanks for sharing your perspective.

[Mohan34689]

To put some of the comments into perspective, here's the number of PERM certifications for India by PD year (from A number)

2007 - 23,098
2008 - 23,746
2009 - 16,672
2010 - 22,355
2011 - 30,014
2012 - 36,850
2013 - 36,145
2014 - 41,318
2015 - 45,427

It's unknowable to us how many cases in each year relate to porting to an earlier year, are new cases in the same category with an earlier PD established, represent cases where both spouses have a case etc etc, but it's probably fair to say that overall numbers have increased substantially since 2009.

For YR 2009: Since there are 12K EB2-I applications in the 485 inventory, does that mean there are only 4K Eb3-I.

[Jagan01]

I have always been so near but yet so far. Wanted to get inputs from Gurus as to when they think the PD Jan 2009 will be current again.

Am kind of losing hope now. What are others with PD Dec 2008 / Jan 2009 planning? Its so frustrating that CO misallocated some of the visa numbers last year and nothing prohibits him from doing it every year.

After the misallocations from CO, I think its pointless to do any calculations/predictions.

May be this is just some frustration that I am venting on this forum, but its been really a long and endless wait.

[iatiam]

I have always been so near but yet so far. Wanted to get inputs from Gurus as to when they think the PD Jan 2009 will be current again.

Am kind of losing hope now. What are others with PD Dec 2008 / Jan 2009 planning? Its so frustrating that CO misallocated some of the visa numbers last year and nothing prohibits him from doing it every year.

After the misallocations from CO, I think its pointless to do any calculations/predictions.

May be this is just some frustration that I am venting on this forum, but its been really a long and endless wait.

Jagan,

I feel your pain. I am in the same boat, albeit with an Aug 2009 PD. Have you filed for 485?

Iatiam

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

I feel your pain. I am in the same boat, albeit with an Aug 2009 PD. Have you filed for 485?

Iatiam
Filed 485 in 2014. Waiting since then.

[iatiam]

Filed 485 in 2014. Waiting since then.

I am no expert, but there is reason for hope. EB2I has been battered from all sides - EB1C filings, Porting, EB4 going to undocumented and increased EB5 filings and overall improvement in economy. However, a lot of these things might change in the next 6 to 18 months.

1. Spec says that EB4 demand should persist for 2.5 years, and I hope to see less demand before that
2. If EB3I moves to April 2006, porting will come down
3. EB5 has been under lot of limelight because of abuse issues
4. Just a matter of time before EB1C is under scrutiny. Already hearing a lot of USCIS office visits

I think future looks bright. Keep the faith on.

Iatiam

[qesehmk]

I have always been so near but yet so far. Wanted to get inputs from Gurus as to when they think the PD Jan 2009 will be current again.

Am kind of losing hope now. What are others with PD Dec 2008 / Jan 2009 planning? Its so frustrating that CO misallocated some of the visa numbers last year and nothing prohibits him from doing it every year.

After the misallocations from CO, I think its pointless to do any calculations/predictions.

May be this is just some frustration that I am venting on this forum, but its been really a long and endless wait.

Hang in there Jagan. I think you will get through this year.

[imdeng]

I think so too. You are close enough to sniff it - should happen for you this year.


Hang in there Jagan. I think you will get through this year.

[Mohan34689]

To put some of the comments into perspective, here's the number of PERM certifications for India by PD year (from A number)

2007 - 23,098
2008 - 23,746
2009 - 16,672
2010 - 22,355
2011 - 30,014
2012 - 36,850
2013 - 36,145
2014 - 41,318
2015 - 45,427

It's unknowable to us how many cases in each year relate to porting to an earlier year, are new cases in the same category with an earlier PD established, represent cases where both spouses have a case etc etc, but it's probably fair to say that overall numbers have increased substantially since 2009.

Does than mean for YR 2009 there are only 4K Eb3-I, since there are 12K EB2-I applications in the 485 inventory.

[imdeng]

There are some factors to consider - one PERM may result in more than one visa - the average I think is 2 visa per perm. Plus - many of these perm might be for EB3 to EB2 upgrades. Then there are EB2s that do not need perm. So the calculation is not a simple subtraction - but the basic premise is correct - there shouldn't be too many EB3Is in 2009.


Does than mean for YR 2009 there are only 4K Eb3-I, since there are 12K EB2-I applications in the 485 inventory.

[Kanmani]

I think so too. You are close enough to sniff it - should happen for you this year.

How about me ? (just kidding...I stopped dreaming.... never stopped reading Q's forum...)
Just to say 'Hiiiiiiiii' to all.

[Jagan01]

Hang in there Jagan. I think you will get through this year.

Thanks, Q. I really hope so but there have been no RFEs yet. Then again... you never know with USCIS... expect the unexpected...


I think so too. You are close enough to sniff it - should happen for you this year.

Thanks, imdeng.


How about me ? (just kidding...I stopped dreaming.... never stopped reading Q's forum...)
Just to say 'Hiiiiiiiii' to all.

Hiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii Kanmani. How have you been?

Q, imdeng, Kanmani, iatiam, and all other long-time members of this forum. Its been such a long time on this forum, that when I read posts from you guys, it feels like reading posts from friends. Hopefully, we all get GCs soon.

Within the next couple of years, many of those old timers would be citizens and many would have already become citizens.

[chennai09]

Hello guys new to this forum, EB2 - may 2009. would the retrogression of EB2 I filing date indicate that they would allow using filing date to be used? this might be a positive direction i think. am hoping there would be a chance atleast to file for EAD some time in 2018. i have crossed the perm ocean 3 times.. not sure if i could withstand one more of this new job ->wait 6 months to initiate perm -> perm preparation for 6 months (PWD took 4 months!) -> wait for perm approval 6 months!!!

[imdeng]

Hey Kanmani - Nice to see you here after so long.


How about me ? (just kidding...I stopped dreaming.... never stopped reading Q's forum...)
Just to say 'Hiiiiiiiii' to all.

[imdeng]

I think we will all be Senior Citizens before we will ever be Citizens!



Q, imdeng, Kanmani, iatiam, and all other long-time members of this forum. Its been such a long time on this forum, that when I read posts from you guys, it feels like reading posts from friends. Hopefully, we all get GCs soon.

Within the next couple of years, many of those old timers would be citizens and many would have already become citizens.

[nagendra75]

Trump Nominates DHS Insider to Serve as New USCIS Director (https://www.murthy.com/2017/04/19/trump-nominates-dhs-insider-to-serve-as-new-uscis-director/)

Should the folks in the queues be worried? :-( This is getting very depressing every day. Unnecessary stress for the creative minds with no clarity.

[GCdreamz]

Hope EB5 Visa expiry or changes to increase the capital requirement will give some spill over (which might be consumed by EB1 though).....hope for some relief....

[Spectator]

I've updated the PERM Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) with the Q2 FY2017 data release.

[oogway]

Hey All, I am a dependent applicant and our PD is fag end of 2009 EB2-I. We are currently on EAD/AP. Considering the current rate of PD progressions it seems unlikely that this date will be current in next 2-3 years. I am expecting it to be current in 2020-2021. I started a company few months back and we have signed up some paying clients. We can close some more deals in the coming months. We are interested in setting up a offshore office (engineering and local sales). I will be responsible for setting it up and hiring people under me.

So, here is my question.

Can I stay outside of US for more than a year on AP (I can split my time between US and India until the office has stabilized)? If yes, will i qualify for EB1 for Multi National Executive /Manager Category. We are currently not taking substantial salary as we are a very early stage startup. Will this be problem if we decide to go EB1 route.

Thanks everyone.

[aquatican]

I think we will all be Senior Citizens before we will ever be Citizens!

So true. I just realized its now 9 years since i started the process in 08. My PD of 19 Jun 09 has come and retrogressed at least 5 times. What a ride!

[Mohan34689]

So true. I just realized its now 9 years since i started the process in 08. My PD of 19 Jun 09 has come and retrogressed at least 5 times. What a ride!

Seriously!
I see June 2009 being current ONLY ONCE during Feb-March-April 2012. I was never current after.

[aquatican]

Yeah Man! look at this graph. The blue wait line going low is the EB2 wait time in years . The lower part is where it crosses into 2009 and then swings back. Though you are right it didn't reach June.


Seriously!
I see June 2009 being current ONLY ONCE during Feb-March-April 2012. I was never current after.

1182

[Suva2001]

Thanks Spec for your wonderful work.

Thanks

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for your wonderful work.

ThanksSuva2001,

I appreciate you taking the time to say thanks. Nice to know people still look at the data. :)

[redsox2009]

Spec,

Regularly I check your data. Thanks dude for your help.

[Suva2001]

Suva2001,

I appreciate you taking the time to say thanks. Nice to know people still look at the data. :)

Actually you know, I have friends who are waiting in EB2/EB3 line. Some of them have PDs in 2010/2011. They always ask me when they can get GC or how they can calculate the time to get GC. I always show your data so that they can calculate the time. You probably don't know but you are truly doing a selfless job for many others.

Thanks

[GCdreamz]

Thank you All for the insights...

[knighthood83]

I agree . Thanks Spec.

[imdeng]

Spec - Many Thanks for your work. I won't be surprised if there are thousands of folks who regularly look up your data and work. I surely do.

Suva2001,

I appreciate you taking the time to say thanks. Nice to know people still look at the data. :)

[abcx13]

Suva2001,

I appreciate you taking the time to say thanks. Nice to know people still look at the data. :)

Spec, thanks a lot for all the hard work! Your insights and data are priceless! You (and Q of course!) are the MVP!

[Jagan01]

Spec,

You have been immensely helpful. Your data has always driven most of the meaningful discussions on this forum, which happens to be the most knowledgeable forum for people like me.

I noticed that you haven't updated the data at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011 after Oct 2016. Any plans of updating it soon ? OR did you move it to some other location ?

[Spectator]

Spec,

You have been immensely helpful. Your data has always driven most of the meaningful discussions on this forum, which happens to be the most knowledgeable forum for people like me.

I noticed that you haven't updated the data at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011 after Oct 2016. Any plans of updating it soon ? OR did you move it to some other location ?Jagan,

The post you reference is now historical for very mundane reasons.

There's a width limit to posts and I can only fit 6 FY worth of data in the width allowance. The FY2011 to FY2016 post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011) has now been superceded by a FY2012 to FY2017 one (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2655-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2017-vs-FY2016-vs-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012).

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

The post you reference is now historical for very mundane reasons.

There's a width limit to posts and I can only fit 6 FY worth of data in the width allowance. The FY2011 to FY2016 post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011) has now been superceded by a FY2012 to FY2017 one (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2655-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2017-vs-FY2016-vs-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012).

Spec,

Thanks for the link to the new location.

The numbers are indicating that CO should have already retrgresed entire EB1 category. Last year total trackitt approvals were 518 for EB1-ALL and they are already at 515 for this FY. When will CO learn to not misallocate !!

[gcpursuit]

Spec - Thanks for all the number crunching you do. Appreciate it as always.

I have a basic question. If EB2-ROW is retrogressed and if there are any unused visas in EB2M/P, where do they go? Do they go to the most retrogressed country or will they go to the "worldwide pool" for any country to use?

Thanks!

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for the link to the new location.

The numbers are indicating that CO should have already retrgresed entire EB1 category. Last year total trackitt approvals were 518 for EB1-ALL and they are already at 515 for this FY. When will CO learn to not misallocate !!Jagan,

Because India dominates the number of EB1 Trackitt approvals (the opposite to real world), you have to be careful looking at just the total number of all EB1 approvals on Trackitt.

As an example, last year 382 Indian approvals on Trackitt equated to 10,985 actual approvals. That's a 3.48% representation.
Last year, 518 total EB1 approvals on Trackitt equated to 43,728 actual approvals.
Therefore 136 non-Indian EB1 approvals on Trackitt equated to 32,743 actual approvals. That's a 0.42% representation.

Even if those % held for FY2017 (and the % vary from year to year), that would give a current consumption of slightly over 30k, because non-Indian approvals to date on Trackitt are only 72. It's also likely that Indian representation on Trackitt has also increased, since it is unlikely that current consumption has reached 13k.

[Spectator]

Spec - Thanks for all the number crunching you do. Appreciate it as always.

I have a basic question. If EB2-ROW is retrogressed and if there are any unused visas in EB2M/P, where do they go? Do they go to the most retrogressed country or will they go to the "worldwide pool" for any country to use?

Thanks!gcpursuit,

By definition, if EB2-ROW becomes retrogressed, then there should be no spare visas available within EB2 (or falling down from EB1).

Leaving that aside, if CO's calculations were incorrect and all EB2 demand within the Cut Off dates set was satisfied, the visas would fall down to EB3. They would first be available to Countries that had not reached 7%, then to the most retrogressed Country. Given we think EB3-I would be receiving Fall Across anyway, they would (hypothetically) probably go to EB3-I (assuming the numbers within the Cut Off Date allows it).

[mujhegcdedo]

I've updated the PERM Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) with the Q2 FY2017 data release.

hi Spec,
m new to the forum and dont know much about the gc process in general I would like to know what this data means.
my pd is feb 2009 i have ead and have been watching the dates come upto late 2008 and go back for the past 3 years.
does this info help me predict how long my wait will be and how can i do that?

Any help from any of the guru's here greatly appreciated.!

[gcy2k07]

Hi Spec,

I have been following your posts but haven't really gotten into the calculations. However, today I tried something and failed to wrap my head around it. From the Jan 2017 inventory report, there are 5613 visas needed to clear EB2-I up to Q1 2009 (my PD is March 2009). Porting from EB3 has been a cause for EB2-I dates to be stuck in 2008. Hypothetically, if we put all EB3I and EB2I in one bucket (assuming additional 2500, 5000 and 1500 in EB3I for 2007, 2008 & Q1 2009), this bucket would have 5613 + 21895 = 27508. Now throwing 5600 visas (2800 for each category) at this combined bucket, it should take 27508/5600 = 4.9 years to clear up to Q1 2009 (both EB3I and EB2I). Is this not logical?

Where I lost it is, assuming only 70% of the 27508 EB3I port, there are two buckets - the remaining 30% EB3I who get 2800 visas per year and the second bucket with 5613 + (27508 * 70%) = 20940 visas. Now throwing 2800 visas at this second bucket, it takes 20940/2800 = 7.48 years to clear up to Q1 2009!

What am I missing? Why does treating EB3 + EB2 as one single line yield ~5 years vs only 70% porting yields 7.48 years? I'm sure I am missing something obvious - but what is it? Does this mean it is a better process to make EB 2 & 3 as one single line going forward and predict better than live with this unpredictable porting? Or is that what will be achieved once EB3 and EB2 cut off dates start converging?

Thanks!!

[Spectator]

What am I missing? Why does treating EB3 + EB2 as one single line yield ~5 years vs only 70% porting yields 7.48 years? I'm sure I am missing something obvious - but what is it? Does this mean it is a better process to make EB 2 & 3 as one single line going forward and predict better than live with this unpredictable porting? Or is that what will be achieved once EB3 and EB2 cut off dates start converging?

Thanks!!gcy2k07,

In your first example, you are calculating a time that both EB2 and EB3 would take to reach the target at the same time (5,613 + 21,895)/5,600 = 4.91 years.

In the second example, EB2 and EB3 would reach the target at different rates.

I think you made a slight error in that calculation, since the 70% porting should be of the 21,985 EB3 cases, not the total 27,508.

EB2 would take (5,613 + (21,895*70%))/2,800 = 7.48 years but EB3 would only take (21,895*30%)/2,800 = 2.34 years in your example. The average to reach this point remains the same (7.48 + 2.34)/2 = 9.82/2 = 4.91 years.

I hope I have interpreted your post correctly.

[gcy2k07]

Thank you Spec! Makes sense (also yes, I used the wrong number to derive the 70% porting).

So the average comes to be the same - but for someone waiting in the EB2I line, it matters how the entire inventory before him/her is treated? That is, as one big pool or separate pools? It is ironic that Q1 2009 is reached faster for someone in EB2I if everyone (EB 2 & 3) is considered the same or 100% of EB3 port. But anything less makes the wait longer!

[gcpursuit]

gcpursuit,

By definition, if EB2-ROW becomes retrogressed, then there should be no spare visas available within EB2 (or falling down from EB1).

Leaving that aside, if CO's calculations were incorrect and all EB2 demand within the Cut Off dates set was satisfied, the visas would fall down to EB3. They would first be available to Countries that had not reached 7%, then to the most retrogressed Country. Given we think EB3-I would be receiving Fall Across anyway, they would (hypothetically) probably go to EB3-I (assuming the numbers within the Cut Off Date allows it).

Thanks for the clarification, Spec. If I understand it correctly, if M/P don't use their entire allocation, their share is distributed to ROW and then even if there is anything left it will come to most retrogressed country aka EB2 I. I am talking only about Fall across for EB2. Fall down visas are not gonna happen anymore given EB1 demand.

[mujhegcdedo]

gcy2k07,

In your first example, you are calculating a time that both EB2 and EB3 would take to reach the target at the same time (5,613 + 21,895)/5,600 = 4.91 years.

In the second example, EB2 and EB3 would reach the target at different rates.

I think you made a slight error in that calculation, since the 70% porting should be of the 21,985 EB3 cases, not the total 27,508.

EB2 would take (5,613 + (21,895*70%))/2,800 = 7.48 years but EB3 would only take (21,895*30%)/2,800 = 2.34 years in your example. The average to reach this point remains the same (7.48 + 2.34)/2 = 9.82/2 = 4.91 years.

I hope I have interpreted your post correctly.

Hi Spec,
do these number represent all pending cases, I mean does that number (5613 +21895) take into account the family members or just the main applicant.
if it doesnt, than the whole calculation falls apart yeah?

[Spectator]

Thanks for the clarification, Spec. If I understand it correctly, if M/P don't use their entire allocation, their share is distributed to ROW and then even if there is anything left it will come to most retrogressed country aka EB2 I. I am talking only about Fall across for EB2. Fall down visas are not gonna happen anymore given EB1 demand.gcpursuit,

That's correct.

Unused visas by a Country are first made available to other Countries in the Category that have not reached the 7% limit. Once that demand is satisfied, spare visas are made available to the most retrogressed Country that has already reached the 7% limit. Once all demand has been reached in the Category, spare visas fall down to the next Category for use by Countries that have not yet reached the 7% limit. Only after that has been satisfied would visas be available to Countries already at the 7% limit in the lower Category.

As for Fall Down from EB2 to EB3, I agree with you. Demand in EB2 to become Current is likely in the 6 figures. I find it hard to even envisage a date when Fall Down might occur.

[bvsamrat]

Pending Inventory of EB2 is very much appears a moving value.
Is EB2 PD March 2009 is straight EB2? which missed in getting GC in 2014?
Or ported to EB2 from EB3 and if so when? between 2010-2017?
It appears both groups EB2 and EB3 are moving in tandem.
Unless some rules are changed, the progress appears slow





Hi Spec,

I have been following your posts but haven't really gotten into the calculations. However, today I tried something and failed to wrap my head around it. From the Jan 2017 inventory report, there are 5613 visas needed to clear EB2-I up to Q1 2009 (my PD is March 2009). Porting from EB3 has been a cause for EB2-I dates to be stuck in 2008. Hypothetically, if we put all EB3I and EB2I in one bucket (assuming additional 2500, 5000 and 1500 in EB3I for 2007, 2008 & Q1 2009), this bucket would have 5613 + 21895 = 27508. Now throwing 5600 visas (2800 for each category) at this combined bucket, it should take 27508/5600 = 4.9 years to clear up to Q1 2009 (both EB3I and EB2I). Is this not logical?

Where I lost it is, assuming only 70% of the 27508 EB3I port, there are two buckets - the remaining 30% EB3I who get 2800 visas per year and the second bucket with 5613 + (27508 * 70%) = 20940 visas. Now throwing 2800 visas at this second bucket, it takes 20940/2800 = 7.48 years to clear up to Q1 2009!

What am I missing? Why does treating EB3 + EB2 as one single line yield ~5 years vs only 70% porting yields 7.48 years? I'm sure I am missing something obvious - but what is it? Does this mean it is a better process to make EB 2 & 3 as one single line going forward and predict better than live with this unpredictable porting? Or is that what will be achieved once EB3 and EB2 cut off dates start converging?

Thanks!!

[gcy2k07]

Pending Inventory of EB2 is very much appears a moving value.
Is EB2 PD March 2009 is straight EB2? which missed in getting GC in 2014?
Or ported to EB2 from EB3 and if so when? between 2010-2017?
It appears both groups EB2 and EB3 are moving in tandem.
Unless some rules are changed, the progress appears slow

Yes - straight EB2.. PERM went into random audit and missed earlier opportunities.

[zenmaster]

We have a cutoff for EB1 :)

EB1I - 01JAN12
EB2I - 01JUL08
EB3I - 15MAY05

[suninphx]

We have a cutoff for EB1 :)

EB1I - 01JAN12
EB2I - 01JUL08
EB3I - 15MAY05

Oh no! All 'highly qualified' international managers (some waiting in Canada) have to wait longer....:d

Happy for EB3-I - hopefully moves faster going forward

[vhk2009]

Sorry if this is a repeat - the 485 inventory as of April 2017 is released and the numbers seems to be skewed up

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_04-26-2017.pdf

EB2 BackLog(Numbers in Jan 2017 Inventory vs April 2017 Inventory)

2008 - 2267 to 7839
2009 - 12118 to 9092
2010 - 4748 to 1770

[vedu]

Sorry if this is a repeat - the 485 inventory as of April 2017 is released and the numbers seems to be skewed up

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_04-26-2017.pdf

EB2 BackLog(Numbers in Jan 2017 Inventory vs April 2017 Inventory)

2008 - 2267 to 7839
2009 - 12118 to 9092
2010 - 4748 to 1770

Yes, they have certainly messed up 2008 numbers for EB2I. There is no way 598 applicants in April and 886 applications in May pending, and still the date can progress to July 01 as indicated in the most recent visa bulletin.

On the other note, the dates have moved as expected for both EB3I and EB2I!

[vhk2009]

Yes, they have certainly messed up 2008 numbers for EB2I. There is no way 598 applicants in April and 886 applications in May pending, and still the date can progress to July 01 as indicated in the most recent visa bulletin.

On the other note, the dates have moved as expected for both EB3I and EB2I!


Also how can the numbers go down for 2009 and 2010

[Jagan01]

We have a cutoff for EB1 :)

EB1I - 01JAN12
EB2I - 01JUL08
EB3I - 15MAY05Finally !! Glad the correction happened warlier this year. Hopefully there wont be misallocations this time around.

[bourne_ny]

As posted above, I don't understand how the cut off for EB1 matters. Quote from the bulletin:

"OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE CHINA AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIRST (E1) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES

Readers were advised in item D of the May Visa Bulletin number 5, that it would be necessary to impose a date for these two countries in the near future. The continued high level of demand for E1 numbers for USCIS adjustment of status applicants has required the establishment of a date for June. This has been done in an attempt to hold number use within the Worldwide E1 annual limit. The E1 date for these two countries will once again become CURRENT for October, the first month of fiscal year 2018."

The last line from the bulletin clearly states EB1 will be made current for India and China in the new fiscal year. Going by current inventory for EB1 (13,423) there will definitely be misallaocation with regards to spillovers towards EB2 and EB3, since the eventual goal of the immigration department is to make EB1 current which every year is trending up, and biting a huge chunk out of EB2 and EB3 spillovers. Again I might be wrong but reading from what's stated in the visa bulletin it sure looks like that.

Moreover it's gone beyond my imagination and mathematical skills to understand the April 2017 inventory. As pointed out by few posters above, pending inventory for 2008 has gone up by almost 5500 but has gone down for 2009 and 2010. I don't understand what kind of magical porting is going on there. Maybe the immigration god is planning to retrograde again if it's not a mistake. Again I might be wrong.

[amulchandra]

Finally !! Glad the correction happened warlier this year. Hopefully there wont be misallocations this time around.

Exactly my thought. Hopefully this year EB3 India 2006 PDs will see some light.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Exactly my thought. Hopefully this year EB3 India 2006 PDs will see some light.

They are seeing light already. RFE's for April 2006 PD's are also sighted.

[Abhinav3799]

They are seeing light already. RFE's for April 2006 PD's are also sighted.

EB3I is supposed to have rapid movement.However, in last 2 years they didn't allocate that many spillovers to India only for EB3. Considerable spillovers are allocated to Philippines as well even though their queue is shorter than India. Also , I'm not sure about the correctness of the data they have reported . For example , Look at the EB2I inventory . Numbers reduced by 3K from 2010 and no change in 2009. I have outlined analysis in my blog :

http://chatur-chintamani.blogspot.com/

There should be more transparency about visa allocation which will help us to estimate our predictions correctly.

[Maxray]

Where did you see April 2006 RFE? Can you post the link?

[smuggymba]

Are people having any issues with their employers on getting the Supplement J's filled out.

I'm no where near current but had a colleague in my company (big american company) who got an RFE and barely got it signed today. He was on EAD from a diff company and didn't file AC21 when he joined this big company. (Same situation as mine, I didn't file AC21 as well)

Fragomen told him you're not on our records and we can fill out Supplement J. HR said talk to Fragomen, Fragomen said talk to HR. Finally he got it done once Fragomen said they will decide on the occupation code based on their conversations with the manager and HR. I expect to be in the same boat when I'm current. These lawyers are a curse on people in the immigration line. Sorry had to rant.

[Mohan34689]

Are people having any issues with their employers on getting the Supplement J's filled out.

I'm no where near current but had a colleague in my company (big american company) who got an RFE and barely got it signed today. He was on EAD from a diff company and didn't file AC21 when he joined this big company. (Same situation as mine, I didn't file AC21 as well)

Fragomen told him you're not on our records and we can fill out Supplement J. HR said talk to Fragomen, Fragomen said talk to HR. Finally he got it done once Fragomen said they will decide on the occupation code based on their conversations with the manager and HR. I expect to be in the same boat when I'm current. These lawyers are a curse on people in the immigration line. Sorry had to rant.

Are you working for this big american company as a full time or contractor.
If you are working as a full time, how come the company has a problem in issuing Supplement J.
Did your responsibilities change from the one on labor petition?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Are you working for this big american company as a full time or contractor.
If you are working as a full time, how come the company has a problem in issuing Supplement J.
Did your responsibilities change from the one on labor petition?

Fragomen is a POS. Fragomen needs to review your Original LCA filing and see what occupation it was filed for and advice HR, so HR can give the same in the Supplement J. I was lucky to have got my GC before this Sup J came into effect, otherwise, I would also be in the same boat, because Fragomen is also the Attorney for my BIG company.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

EB3I is supposed to have rapid movement.However, in last 2 years they didn't allocate that many spillovers to India only for EB3. Considerable spillovers are allocated to Philippines as well even though their queue is shorter than India. Also , I'm not sure about the correctness of the data they have reported . For example , Look at the EB2I inventory . Numbers reduced by 3K from 2010 and no change in 2009. I have outlined analysis in my blog :

http://chatur-chintamani.blogspot.com/

There should be more transparency about visa allocation which will help us to estimate our predictions correctly.

Pending Inventory has always been fudged. No point in analysing fudged data.

[smuggymba]

Are you working for this big american company as a full time or contractor.
If you are working as a full time, how come the company has a problem in issuing Supplement J.
Did your responsibilities change from the one on labor petition?

Full time. This supp J is so new that HR has no clue. They're thinking they're "sponsoring" a new visa/employee. As soon as "sponsor" word comes into picture everyone pulls back and says we don't sponsor anyone. EVL's were never an issues, HR used to give that on the same day.

[dashingdon]

I've updated the PERM Data (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) with the Q2 FY2017 data release.

Looks like there are only 13388 perms approved for EB India in 2008 as per PERM_DATA. Can you please cross check. All other years matches with my calculations.

Thank you;

[abcx13]

Fragomen is a POS.

Agree. We had to fire them.

[AC_1980]

Sorry posting off-topic, I recently moved and am trying to change address online using online AR-11 form: https://egov.uscis.gov/coa/displayCOAForm.do

When I fill out all information, at the end the form does not submit and throws an error stating not the correct receipt number for the type of form (I485). I have double and triple checked the receipt number, tried different web browsers, office and home, but the problem prevails. Has anyone else encountered this recently?

I called USCIS and after informing me with the current status (we received response to RFE ....in 2014...), they told me that I will have to fill out the form and mail it in:
https://www.uscis.gov/addresschange

Looking through their webpage above, I cannot determine which address to mail it to, the webpage says I-485 but includes as an abused spouse, and requires to be mailed to St. Albans, VT. The actual AR-11 PDF form requires it to be mailed to Harrisonburg, VA.

I believe I should mail it to Harrisonburg, VA being a EB2 I-485. Is my understanding correct? If someone can advise, I will appreciate it.

[nbk1976]

Sorry posting off-topic, I recently moved and am trying to change address online using online AR-11 form: https://egov.uscis.gov/coa/displayCOAForm.do

When I fill out all information, at the end the form does not submit and throws an error stating not the correct receipt number for the type of form (I485). I have double and triple checked the receipt number, tried different web browsers, office and home, but the problem prevails. Has anyone else encountered this recently?

I called USCIS and after informing me with the current status (we received response to RFE ....in 2014...), they told me that I will have to fill out the form and mail it in:
https://www.uscis.gov/addresschange

Looking through their webpage above, I cannot determine which address to mail it to, the webpage says I-485 but includes as an abused spouse, and requires to be mailed to St. Albans, VT. The actual AR-11 PDF form requires it to be mailed to Harrisonburg, VA.

I believe I should mail it to Harrisonburg, VA being a EB2 I-485. Is my understanding correct? If someone can advise, I will appreciate it.

Download the AR-11 form and open it. On the second page, there is a clearly marked box telling you to mail it to Harrisonburg, VA.

Don't forget to send via certified mail with a physical signature return confirmation. Save that confirmation card that is returned.

[Madhu7]

Has anyone filed the I-485 RFE response by themselves for dependents? Also can anyone suggest a good lawyer for filing the RFE response? I changed many jobs after 180 days of filing I-485, never filed AC-21 as per old lawyer's suggestion. Last week I suddenly got the RFE much sooner than expected(March 15, 2006 Eb3-I). Based on my previous experience I do not wish to use the same lawyer. In my current company everyone is either GC holder or citizen. The company does not have any immigration lawyer. I am looking for lawyer suggestions.
Thanks,

[smuggymba]

Has anyone filed the I-485 RFE response by themselves for dependents? Also can anyone suggest a good lawyer for filing the RFE response? I changed many jobs after 180 days of filing I-485, never filed AC-21 as per old lawyer's suggestion. Last week I suddenly got the RFE much sooner than expected(March 15, 2006 Eb3-I). Based on my previous experience I do not wish to use the same lawyer. In my current company everyone is either GC holder or citizen. The company does not have any immigration lawyer. I am looking for lawyer suggestions.
Thanks,

you can hire any reputed lawyer but they will ask you HR to fill out the supplement J. Are there any changes in job duties or is this a straightforward case?

Main question - is your current company supportive or not. That's the main thing. Filling out form/lawyer are things you don't need to worry about.

I'm worried about the day I get the supplement J RFE :( (PD March 2010 EB2) because my company is generally not supportive and just goes by what the stupid ppl in Fragomen tell them.

[Madhu7]

you can hire any reputed lawyer but they will ask you HR to fill out the supplement J. Are there any changes in job duties or is this a straightforward case?

Main question - is your current company supportive or not. That's the main thing. Filling out form/lawyer are things you don't need to worry about.

I'm worried about the day I get the supplement J RFE :( (PD March 2010 EB2) because my company is generally not supportive and just goes by what the stupid ppl in Fragomen tell them.

Fortunately my company is supportive and willing to fill out supp. J form. My primary skill is java and now I am working in SalesForce where Java is also one of the requirements. I have made it a point to keep my job duties similar for all these years :( . The case is kind of straight forward, except for the fact I have too many employers due to the nature of consulting jobs (I had to go on preferred vendor's W-2), and I got G-325 in RFE which asks for last 5 years employment history. I have 4-6 weeks gap twice when I was looking for projects. I am kind of worried about that part. The officer who looks at G325 will not be accustomed to see all 5 lines filled with different employers is my worry :( I know technically we can work for any employer if job is same or similar but after waiting for 12+ years I am totally anxious to say the least. If at all officer raises concerns about this, I need a competent lawyer who can handle this.

[smuggymba]

Fortunately my company is supportive and willing to fill out supp. J form. My primary skill is java and now I am working in SalesForce where Java is also one of the requirements. I have made it a point to keep my job duties similar for all these years :( . The case is kind of straight forward, except for the fact I have too many employers due to the nature of consulting jobs (I had to go on preferred vendor's W-2), and I got G-325 in RFE which asks for last 5 years employment history. I have 4-6 weeks gap twice when I was looking for projects. I am kind of worried about that part. The officer who looks at G325 will not be accustomed to see all 5 lines filled with different employers is my worry :( I know technically we can work for any employer if job is same or similar but after waiting for 12+ years I am totally anxious to say the least. If at all officer raises concerns about this, I need a competent lawyer who can handle this.

get any reputable attorney - murthy, shusterman, Pallavi Ahluwalia etc. or someone from your city if you want local.

Get any lawyer other then Rahul Reddy who is a scumbag who supported the lobby and killed EAD after I-140 approval. He's the reason people in EB2/3 don't have EAD even after I-140 approval.

On a sidenote, it's good to see people getting RFE in 2006 for EB3.

[AC_1980]

yep, that's pretty much what I did, thanks for confirming. I also followed up with a phone call to USCIS customer care (per instructions on their website) and went through address change on pending I485 application. just wanted to add the extra step for benefit to future readers. thanks again!

[nbk1976]

Has anyone filed the I-485 RFE response by themselves for dependents? Also can anyone suggest a good lawyer for filing the RFE response? I changed many jobs after 180 days of filing I-485, never filed AC-21 as per old lawyer's suggestion. Last week I suddenly got the RFE much sooner than expected(March 15, 2006 Eb3-I). Based on my previous experience I do not wish to use the same lawyer. In my current company everyone is either GC holder or citizen. The company does not have any immigration lawyer. I am looking for lawyer suggestions.
Thanks,

If your case is "simple" and there are no issues that you are aware of and your job is very similar to the old one, just use any local lawyer. Always speak to the lawyer over the phone before you sign on. Tell him/her your situation and ask how many EB green cards he/she has handled during the last two years.

I am with Ron Gotcher in California, and I am very happy with him. I spoke with him many times and he is very patient and helpful. Good luck!

[Spectator]

I just saw this on Murthy, so I thought I would share. https://www.murthy.com/2017/05/19/june-2017-visa-bulletin-check-predictions-eb3-india/


June 2017 Visa Bulletin Check-in: Predictions for EB3 India

19 May 2017

Last night, Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of State (DOS), was the featured speaker at the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) D.C. Chapter meeting. During his talk, he provided some updated predictions regarding the employment-based, third preference (EB3) category for people born in India.

EB3 India: Some Advancement Expected in Near Future

Between October 2016, which was the first month of the current fiscal year, and May 2017, the cutoff date in the final action (FA) chart for EB3 India moved forward a total of a measly 24 days. So, the advancement in the June 2017 Visa Bulletin of about seven weeks, to a new cutoff date of May 15, 2005, was rapid movement, by comparison.

Mr. Oppenheim expects this movement to accelerate a bit in the near future. For the July 2017 Visa Bulletin, he hopes to advance EB3 India to a new cutoff date of October 15, 2005. Moreover, if all goes according to plan, he believes he will be able to advance the cutoff date to March 2006 by the end of the fiscal year.

These are Predictions – Not Guarantees

It is important to note that these are Mr. Oppenheim’s current predictions. Circumstances could change that would prevent even this relatively modest advancement from occurring. And, of course, even if this forward progress occurs, it still will leave the vast majority of beneficiaries under the EB3 India banner with a long, long wait ahead of them.

Copyright © 2016, MURTHY LAW FIRM. All Rights Reserved
Some good news for EB3-I at last.

[suninphx]

I just saw this on Murthy, so I thought I would share. https://www.murthy.com/2017/05/19/june-2017-visa-bulletin-check-predictions-eb3-india/


Some good news for EB3-I at last.

Great news indeed.

FY2018 should be even more exciting for EB3-I.

[imdeng]

I am a little skeptical of EB3I optimism. As Spec's recent PERM data analysis showed, ROW demand proportion is moving dramatically towards EB3 from EB2 now that EB3ROW is effectively current. If the movement persists, then coupled with strong EB3P demand, there may not be much left for EB3I movement.

The next recession can't come soon enough. We need a repeat of 2008-09 when EB-ROW demand collapses and EB2I and EB3I get a chance to catch up.

Obviously nothing is going to happen legislatively. The future is indeed grim.


Great news indeed.

FY2018 should be even more exciting for EB3-I.

[suninphx]

I am a little skeptical of EB3I optimism. As Spec's recent PERM data analysis showed, ROW demand proportion is moving dramatically towards EB3 from EB2 now that EB3ROW is effectively current. If the movement persists, then coupled with strong EB3P demand, there may not be much left for EB3I movement.

The next recession can't come soon enough. We need a repeat of 2008-09 when EB-ROW demand collapses and EB2I and EB3I get a chance to catch up.

Obviously nothing is going to happen legislatively. The future is indeed grim.

For FY2018 I am still optimistic. Beyond that let's see how it plays out.

[amulchandra]

Based on this when do you guys think July 2006 might be current? Eagerly waiting.....

[anuprab]

Based on this when do you guys think July 2006 might be current? Eagerly waiting.....

Amul - for both our sake, i hope June-Jul 2006 clears by 2018..fingers crossed. If it indeed reaches early 2006 by this fiscal, 2018 may be our lucky year. Positive sign is CO has at least spoken about EB3I, the long forgotten category. Just hope he doesnt over allocate to his favored categories.

[amulchandra]

I wish the same. If what CO said happens , our PDs will become current in first or second quarter of 2018. Fingers crossed.

[Mohan34689]

Based on this when do you guys think July 2006 might be current? Eagerly waiting.....

Once we enter new FY 2018, I see the dates moving 2 weeks a month (as there are ~500 applications a month).
That should cover you in the Q2 or Q3 of 2018.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Based on this when do you guys think July 2006 might be current? Eagerly waiting.....

You will be current in Dec 2017 or Jan 2018.

[srimurthy]

Did anyone go through the new bill of "Blue Card" "Agricultural Worker Program Act of 2017," S-1034 listed on the OH Law firm.
I guess with a fixed amount of Green Cards, this is going to be more wait times for Employment based Green cards.
Any thoughts.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Immigration girl gave more details of what CO said of the coming VBs:

http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-as-of-may-2017/

Here is what he said of our interested categories:

EB-1 Worldwide is expected to remain current through this fiscal year and into the next.

EB-1 China and EB-1 India. A final action date of January 1, 2012 is being imposed as almost half of the entire EB-1 Worldwide limit has been used up for this fiscal year. This date is expected to hold through the remainder of this fiscal year. It is anticipated that these will return to current on October 1.

EB-2 Worldwide. EB-2 number usage remains high, and a final action cut-off date will be imposed for EB-2 Worldwide by August, and possibly in July. We don’t know how far back this category will retrogress or for how long. It is likely that the date will remain the same through the end of the fiscal year and that the category will again become current on October 1.

EB-2 India. Demand for EB-2 India continues to be strong, in large part due to EB-3 upgrades. Due to the lack of spillover from other categories, it is unlikely that this category will recover to last year’s final action date. The existing final action date will likely stay the same through the remainder of the fiscal year.

EB-2 China and EB-3 China. EB-2 China should continue to advance slowly and is on track to hit the per country limit. EB-3 downgrades are rising and retrogression of this category cannot be ruled out.

EB-3 Worldwide. This category is expected to continue to advance.

EB-3 India. Since EB-3 Worldwide and Mexico demand is low, those otherwise unused numbers should allow the advancement of the final action date for EB-3 India in July and August. The July final action date for EB-3 India is expected advance to October 15, 2005.

EB-5 China. Expect slow forward movement in this category.

[jimmys]

My EB2-I PD is mid-July 2009 and I yet to file.I've been so close in the past but it still didn't happen. Do you think mid-July 2009 PD will be able to file in Oct'17? Since the dates are dilly-dallying past 3 years, I'm unable to make a decision in my career. I hate to do the whole labor/I-140 process again. Meanwhile I'm furious to see the opportunities that were passed by me. It really pisses me of thinking the position I'm in.

[EB3Iwaiting]

My EB2-I PD is mid-July 2009 and I yet to file.I've been so close in the past but it still didn't happen. Do you think mid-July 2009 PD will be able to file in Oct'17? Since the dates are dilly-dallying past 3 years, I'm unable to make a decision in my career. I hate to do the whole labor/I-140 process again. Meanwhile I'm furious to see the opportunities that were passed by me. It really pisses me of thinking the position I'm in.

Unfortunately, no. Looking at what CO told AILA in his latest meeting, it seems EB2I will end another year in 2008 and in a worse position than it was in last year. It will move forward again in FY 2018 but then there will also be many porters who are waiting in file when that happens. EB2I movement will be severely restricted till EB3I eventually catches up with it and there is no incentive to port. It is already happening for those whose PDs are in late 2006 and early 2007. I am sure they will be sitting pat now even if they were thinking of porting since EB3I has now finally started to move. But porting will truly stop only when EB3I gets within 1 year of EB2I.

[vedu]

Spec and other gurus:

Recently I came across a news regarding CO's monthly meeting with AILA. As per the news:

"FB-4 Worldwide should be watched closely. Charlie hopes this category will advance during this fiscal year. Only 40% of FB-4 Worldwide beneficiaries who were sent "Agent of Choice" letters before April 2016 have responded to those letters. Additionally, of those, only 15% provided enough information to schedule an interview."

Source: http://www.sivisalaw.com/immigration-news/2017/05/29/436/

Does this mean we can expect additional visas from FB category next year?

[Spectator]

Spec and other gurus:

Recently I came across a news regarding CO's monthly meeting with AILA. As per the news:

"FB-4 Worldwide should be watched closely. Charlie hopes this category will advance during this fiscal year. Only 40% of FB-4 Worldwide beneficiaries who were sent "Agent of Choice" letters before April 2016 have responded to those letters. Additionally, of those, only 15% provided enough information to schedule an interview."

Source: http://www.sivisalaw.com/immigration-news/2017/05/29/436/

Does this mean we can expect additional visas from FB category next year?vedu,

Not necessarily.

CO has identified the potential problem fairly early and has at least 3 months to correct it. He can move FB4 forward more quickly in the remaining VB and also has the option of moving FB1 forward to use SO within the FB categories.

Given the long wait for FB4 beneficiaries, it is perhaps not surprising that people decide they do not want to follow through with immigration to the USA at the time it finally becomes current. Lives and circumstances change dramatically over the now 13 year minimum waiting time.

[vedu]

vedu,

Not necessarily.

CO has identified the potential problem fairly early and has at least 3 months to correct it. He can move FB4 forward more quickly in the remaining VB and also has the option of moving FB1 forward to use SO within the FB categories.

Given the long wait for FB4 beneficiaries, it is perhaps not surprising that people decide they do not want to follow through with immigration to the USA at the time it finally becomes current. Lives and circumstances change dramatically over the now 13 year minimum waiting time.

Spec,

Thanks for your explanation. We can only hope that under current administration, extreme scrutiny and background check of all the applicants is underway and that may eventually result in some spillover. Of course we can't count on anything these days!

[Spectator]

USCIS have updated the Immigration and Citizenship Data with FY2017 Q2 numbers on this page https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data

[EB3Iwaiting]

July VB is out:

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-july-2017.html

EB3I has moved to 15th Feb 06 Final Action date with Filing Date now moved to 1st October 06. Looks to be a good SO from EB3ROW this year.

[amulchandra]

July VB is out:

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-july-2017.html

EB3I has moved to 15th Feb 06 Final Action date with Filing Date now moved to 1st October 06. Looks to be a good SO from EB3ROW this year.
Finally some good news for eb3 India. Do you guys think it will move past July 2006 this FY?

[Mohan34689]

Finally some good news for eb3 India. Do you guys think it will move past July 2006 this FY?


Very good chance.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Very good chance.

Hit Aug 2006 in Aug VB and Dec 2006 in Sep VB

[redsox2009]

USCIS Performance data for 2nd quarter is released.

Based on the trackitt data which Spectator updates and historical stats, here is breakdown for the 2nd quarter 485 approvals.

I would say +/-5% error




EB1 India 5600
EB1 Row ROW 9000
EB2 India 700
Non Indians 6560
EB3 India 500
Non Indians 6600
28960

[HarepathekaIntezar]

USCIS Performance data for 2nd quarter is released.

Based on the trackitt data which Spectator updates and historical stats, here is breakdown for the 2nd quarter 485 approvals.

I would say +/-5% error




EB1 India 5600
EB1 Row ROW 9000
EB2 India 700
Non Indians 6560
EB3 India 500
Non Indians 6600
28960

A little confusing. Does this number exclude Consular Processing? Do you have Q1+Q2 Numbers to be able to project a trend?

[redsox2009]

A little confusing. Does this number exclude Consular Processing? Do you have Q1+Q2 Numbers to be able to project a trend?

Does this number exclude Consular Processing? YES
Do you have Q1+Q2 Numbers to be able to project a trend? See below

1183


P.S.:- I could be wrong, this is my first time estimating.

Based on these charts, Eb2I might get spill over close to 2k, and Eb3I might get anywhere close to 10k

[EB3Iwaiting]

Here is my very simple back of the envelope calculations solely based on where CO said the filing date for EB3I will be by the end of this FY and based on the April 2017 inventory numbers. Considering where CO moved the final action dates, it seems he considered a SO of 1958 this month considering 233 is monthly quota. If EB3I were to indeed reach cutoff date of 1st October 2006, it will seem that he is considering an additional 2704 SO considering the 2 month quota is 466. So, looking at where Filing date is, CO is considering EB3I to get a SO of around 4662. This will be in addition to the 2800 yearly quota.

Last year EB3 overall missed out on some 2.5K GCs as they were allocated to EB1. The year before, EB3I missed out on some 3.5K GCs as they were over allocated to EB2I before. Considering the misallocations, EB3I should have actually cleared its pending inventory by now.

Last year saw the highest PERM certifications ever and yet, EB3I got a modest spillover and that included the fact that some 2.5K GCs were misallocated. This year, we are seeing the second highest PERM certifications, and yet EB3I seems to be set for some 4.5K SO which could be a conservative calculation from CO. He already moved the filing date with the July VB and if the SO is more, he will simply move the filing date further.

That being said, I am still trying to figure out the high EB3ROW demand.

[EB2-03252009]

Does this number exclude Consular Processing? YES
Do you have Q1+Q2 Numbers to be able to project a trend? See below

1183


P.S.:- I could be wrong, this is my first time estimating.

Based on these charts, Eb2I might get spill over close to 2k, and Eb3I might get anywhere close to 10k

what would be the final action date if we get 2k spill overs for eb2i?

[Spectator]

I see that DOS have started to publish some details of monthly visa issuances at Consulates https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics/immigrant-visas/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html

This might be useful, since it gives some insight into Consular Processed approvals by DOS which lie outside AOS approvals from USCIS (and the USCIS Inventory).

There is only data for March 2017 and April 2017 at the moment. I've had a look at the data for April.

For the April 2017 figures, there were the following number of CP cases approved for EB categories:

Class -- China -- India -- Mexico -- Philippines ---- ROW --- Total
EB1 ------- 56 ------ 7 ------- 0 ------------ 0 ------ 76 ---- 139
EB2 ------- 10 ------ 2 ------- 1 ----------- 25 ----- 140 ---- 178
EB3 ------- 10 ----- 14 ------- 9 ---------- 256 ----- 206 ---- 495
EB4 -------- 1 ----- 13 ------- 0 ------------ 3 ----- 137 ---- 154
EB5 ------ 808 ----- 10 ------- 4 ------------ 0 ------ 79 ---- 901

Total ---- 885 ----- 46 ------ 14 ---------- 284 ----- 638 -- 1,867

For reference, these were the % of CP cases in FY2016:

EB1 - 5.4%
EB2 - 5.5%
EB3 - 27.4% (China and Philippines have high % - 33.9% and 80.2% respectively)
EB4 - 17.3%
EB5 - 89.9%


Here's the March 2017 figures:

Class -- China -- India -- Mexico -- Philippines ---- ROW --- Total
EB1 ------- 70 ------ 4 ------- 5 ------------ 0 ---- 116 ----- 195
EB2 ------- 17 ------ 5 ------- 0 ----------- 24 ---- 196 ----- 242
EB3 ------- 58 ----- 21 ------- 7 ---------- 346 ----- 27 ----- 659
EB4 -------- 0 ----- 20 ------- 0 ----------- 14 ----- 56 ----- 190
EB5 ------ 834 ------ 6 ------- 8 ------------ 0 ---- 121 ----- 969

Total ---- 979 ----- 56 ------ 20 ---------- 384 ---- 816 --- 2,255

[HarepathekaIntezar]

If EB3I were to indeed reach cutoff date of 1st October 2006

Where did you get that from? I am not saying it will not reach 1st October 2006, in fact I am saying that it will blow past that date comfortably.

[Spectator]

CO's latest comments make for interesting reading.

See http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-remainder-of-fiscal-year-2017/

Some highlights:


EB-1 China and India:
.....
So far this fiscal year, EB-1 China has used more than 6,300 numbers and EB-1 India has used more than 12,900 (due to spillover from unused Worldwide EB-1 numbers).

I hope CO didn't leave it too late to retrogress. In FY2016, EB1 used 43.7k when China used 6.7k and India 11.0k before retrogression.


EB-2 Worldwide: A final action cut-off date will be imposed in August and will remain through September.

As expected.


EB-2 India: Minimal advancement is expected through the rest of the fiscal year. The final action date may only get to September or October 2008
....
approximately 40 percent of the available EB-2 India numbers are being used by beneficiaries who have upgraded from EB-3 India.

I'm actually surprised CO thinks it's only 40%.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

CO's latest comments make for interesting reading.

See http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-remainder-of-fiscal-year-2017/
Some highlights:
I hope CO didn't leave it too late to retrogress. In FY2016, EB1 used 43.7k when China used 6.7k and India 11.0k before retrogression.
As expected.
I'm actually surprised CO thinks it's only 40%.

This does not make sense to me. He was talking 1 Week after the July VB was released, so he was not making any predictions, he was just stating a fact.

EB-3 Worldwide: In July, EB-3 Worldwide will advance less than two months to June 8, 2017, keeping this category effectively current.

It looks to me like he is planning on screwing EB3I folks again!! Why would he not predict how many unused EB3ROW numbers would go to EB3I?


EB-3 India should continue to advance.

[EB3Iwaiting]

I'm actually surprised CO thinks it's only 40%.

I agree this is very surprising. I was under the impression that most 2008 original EB2Is have been cleared a while ago and the slow movement is primarily due to porters taking MOST of their quota. 40% seems really low. How is it that 60% of original EB2Is from 2008 and before are getting GCs now? How many times did they miss the boat?

I am still confused why CO prefers to keep a cutoff date for EB3ROW. He seems determined to screw EB3Is as long as he can.

[anuprab]

I agree this is very surprising. I was under the impression that most 2008 original EB2Is have been cleared a while ago and the slow movement is primarily due to porters taking MOST of their quota. 40% seems really low. How is it that 60% of original EB2Is from 2008 and before are getting GCs now? How many times did they miss the boat?

I am still confused why CO prefers to keep a cutoff date for EB3ROW. He seems determined to screw EB3Is as long as he can.

EB3Iwaiting - how does keeping a cut-off date for EB3Row screw EB3I? anyway after all these years trying to keep expectations very low. I had high hope in 2015 only to see it get crushed by CO brilliant allocations to other categories.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3Iwaiting - how does keeping a cut-off date for EB3Row screw EB3I? anyway after all these years trying to keep expectations very low. I had high hope in 2015 only to see it get crushed by CO brilliant allocations to other categories.

If not for the 2015 and 2016 misallocations, EB3I pending inventory would have been cleared out by now. I just hope he does not continue to misallocate GCs. Hope he did not overallocate EB1 again. Because he will then simply take GCs out from EB3I to balance it out.

EB2I moving forward is good news. It also proves that the April 2017 EB2I inventory is bogus.

[EB2-03252009]

I agree this is very surprising. I was under the impression that most 2008 original EB2Is have been cleared a while ago and the slow movement is primarily due to porters taking MOST of their quota. 40% seems really low. How is it that 60% of original EB2Is from 2008 and before are getting GCs now? How many times did they miss the boat?

I am still confused why CO prefers to keep a cutoff date for EB3ROW. He seems determined to screw EB3Is as long as he can.

I think he means fresh porters who have ported this year only are 40% and ppl who have ported last yr and before he is not considering them as porters.

[Nishant_imt]

Good Morning folks.
I am in kind of a bind right now regarding my job situation. I am looking to make certain decisions based on an educated estimate as to when my date would be current. I have been following this blog sonce 2010, but never really understood the calculations in depth. My priority date is 4/3/2009 under EB2I and due to a administrative error, i didn't get my greencard 3 years ago, when my date became current. And now, i really don't see it getting current until next year based on discussions on this thread. Is there a chance that my date would be current by first quarter of 2018?

[Spectator]

Good Morning folks.
I am in kind of a bind right now regarding my job situation. I am looking to make certain decisions based on an educated estimate as to when my date would be current. I have been following this blog sonce 2010, but never really understood the calculations in depth. My priority date is 4/3/2009 under EB2I and due to a administrative error, i didn't get my greencard 3 years ago, when my date became current. And now, i really don't see it getting current until next year based on discussions on this thread. Is there a chance that my date would be current by first quarter of 2018?
Nishant_imt,

Unfortunately, it's hard to see your PD of April 3, 2009 becoming current for FAD in the first quarter of FY2018.

Using the January 2017 Inventory (because I believe that better represents the true numbers for 2008 and 2009 and gives the lowest number required) there are around 2.4k visas in 2009 needed to cover your PD. If the FAD reached 01NOV08 in FY2017, then a further 1.2k would be required for remaining 2008 PD cases - it doesn't seem possible that CO will make 3.6k visas available to EB2-I in the first quarter of FY2018.

That would be my fairly simplistic view.

[Nishant_imt]

Thanks much Spec... you are awesome as always. When do you think there is a possibility of my date getting current... most optimistic and fairly pessimistic estimate.




Nishant_imt,

Unfortunately, it's hard to see your PD of April 3, 2009 becoming current for FAD in the first quarter of FY2018.

Using the January 2017 Inventory (because I believe that better represents the true numbers for 2008 and 2009 and gives the lowest number required) there are around 2.4k visas in 2009 needed to cover your PD. If the FAD reached 01NOV08 in FY2017, then a further 1.2k would be required for remaining 2008 PD cases - it doesn't seem possible that CO will make 3.6k visas available to EB2-I in the first quarter of FY2018.

That would be my fairly simplistic view.

[imdeng]

1Q2018 - No - does not seem likely. Can't explain it any better than Spec already did. There is a chance you may get in by end of the FY - but not in first Q. Optimistic - Summer 2018, Pessimistic - Summer 2019.

Good Morning folks.
I am in kind of a bind right now regarding my job situation. I am looking to make certain decisions based on an educated estimate as to when my date would be current. I have been following this blog sonce 2010, but never really understood the calculations in depth. My priority date is 4/3/2009 under EB2I and due to a administrative error, i didn't get my greencard 3 years ago, when my date became current. And now, i really don't see it getting current until next year based on discussions on this thread. Is there a chance that my date would be current by first quarter of 2018?

[Nishant_imt]

Thanks much imdeng.

1Q2018 - No - does not seem likely. Can't explain it any better than Spec already did. There is a chance you may get in by end of the FY - but not in first Q. Optimistic - Summer 2018, Pessimistic - Summer 2019.

[redsox2009]

DHS Q1 & Q2 report. Source https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/special-reports/legal-immigration

Looks like there is high demand in EB1 category and EB2 is easing. I'm saying easing since EB2 cutoff date was anticipated sometime in May/June and until now that did not happen, I hope it will not happen unless I'm day dreaming.

Below figures are total AOS and consulate processing.





Total
Q1
Q2


Family Total
116634
59570
57064


Employment-based
75262
40789
34473


EB1
25443
13532
11911


EB2
25382
14510
10872


EB3
15239
7934
7305


EB4
5206
3464
1742


EB5
3992
1349
2643

[redsox2009]

Also lately I'm seeing more PERM approvals for out of country under EB3 other workers, don't know how this will effect(+ or -).

[Spectator]

DHS Q1 & Q2 report. Source https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/special-reports/legal-immigration

Looks like there is high demand in EB1 category and EB2 is easing. I'm saying easing since EB2 cutoff date was anticipated sometime in May/June and until now that did not happen, I hope it will not happen unless I'm day dreaming.
redsox2009,

I think the higher Q1 figure for EB2 reflects that EB2-WW was retrogressed for the last 2 months of FY2016 and there was a backlog of cases to be approved when FY2017 started. Approval numbers were very high in October.

It seems that will be the case for next year, since CO has already announced that EB2-WW will retrogress in the August 2017 VB.

Hopefully, EB2-WW can make it through FY2018 without retrogression - a pre-requisite for lateral spillover in EB2.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Hi Spec,

Can you help me understand this table better as I am still a novice at this? You said that the approvals were very high for EB2-WW in the beginning of the fiscal year since they retrogressed at the end of last year. That makes perfect sense and confirms the high EB2 approvals.

It also shows in the first 2 quarters, EB3 got some 10k less GCs issued to them than EB2. Considering the backlogged countries got their monthly quota, is it because EB3-WW demand is low? I don't want to think it has more to do with them loving EB2 more than EB3 because of which they processed more GCs for EB2.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

Can you help me understand this table better as I am still a novice at this? You said that the approvals were very high for EB2-WW in the beginning of the fiscal year since they retrogressed at the end of last year. That makes perfect sense and confirms the high EB2 approvals.

It also shows in the first 2 quarters, EB3 got some 10k less GCs issued to them than EB2. Considering the backlogged countries got their monthly quota, is it because EB3-WW demand is low? I don't want to think it has more to do with them loving EB2 more than EB3 because of which they processed more GCs for EB2.
EB3Iwaiting,

I'm not sure anyone can answer that question.

Some random thoughts that went through my mind.

a) Countries in both EB1 and EB2 that are normally current, retrogressed for the final 2 months of FY2016. That's not the case for EB3, so it probably isn't surprising that EB1 and EB2 saw higher Q1 approvals than EB3.

b) CO has a cap of 27% of the EB total per quarter (37,800). If approvals are higher in some categories, they may need to be lower in others to stay within the limit. CO overshot that in Q1 (40.8k vs 37.8k). By the end of Q2, CO is closer to the expected number (75.3k vs 75.6k).

c) EB3 Q1 and Q2 approvals are roughly similar for Q1 and Q2, so maybe that is what it is.

d) I'm always slightly wary of USCIS figures, especially when they relate to Consular Processing. DOS control the visa allocations in total and the Consular approvals process entirely. EB3 is much more affected by Consular approvals. I'm sure they are probably close, but USCIS figures never match the official DOS statistics.

e) Leaving aside CP, I'm still a bit baffled by EB3-ROW approvals for the YTD, since the USCIS I-485 Inventory has increased by around 6k in FY2017. It started at 11.1k in the October 2016 Inventory Report and has been shown at over 17k in both the January and April 2017 Inventory Reports. Does that suggest slower processing of EB3 AOS cases during the first half of FY2017? I don't know. The fact that CO has started to move EB3-I forward at a rapid rate suggests that it really is a low demand.

I'll stop rambling at this point and reiterate that I really don't have a clue.

[eb3waiting]

My priority date is 05/16/2006 EB3 India, is there any chance it becomes current in the next few months?

[Altima]

My priority date is Nov 22, 2008 in EB2 I.

Would there be another retrogression in EB2I? When can I expect my date to be current please?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Thanks Spec,

For trying to find a method to this madness. The increase in EB3ROW demand is baffling but don't you think part of it is due to the slower approvals in EB3? EB3 got some 5k less approvals in the first 2 quarters combined (considering 20k for the first 2 quarters). If the backlogged countries have gotten their monthly quota and we consider those 5k to all go to EB3ROW, then the EB3ROW pending inventory comes closer to what it was in Oct 2016, right?

You do raise an important point with the quarterly allocations. EB1 and EB2 seem to be over allocated in the first 2 quarters and if CO were to keep them within their annual quotas, their approvals should slow down. The reverse should happen to EB3. That does point to a pretty good SO for EB3I provided EB3ROW demand remains steady. That will probably not be the case but SO to EB3I should still be decent.

But I would be cautious since EB3 has not been getting their fair share of annual GCs for a while now. EB3ROWs as well as EB3Is have paid the price.

[anuprab]

Thanks Spec,

For trying to find a method to this madness. The increase in EB3ROW demand is baffling but don't you think part of it is due to the slower approvals in EB3? EB3 got some 5k less approvals in the first 2 quarters combined (considering 20k for the first 2 quarters). If the backlogged countries have gotten their monthly quota and we consider those 5k to all go to EB3ROW, then the EB3ROW pending inventory comes closer to what it was in Oct 2016, right?

You do raise an important point with the quarterly allocations. EB1 and EB2 seem to be over allocated in the first 2 quarters and if CO were to keep them within their annual quotas, their approvals should slow down. The reverse should happen to EB3. That does point to a pretty good SO for EB3I provided EB3ROW demand remains steady. That will probably not be the case but SO to EB3I should still be decent.

But I would be cautious since EB3 has not been getting their fair share of annual GCs for a while now. EB3ROWs as well as EB3Is have paid the price.

EB3Iwaiting, what is your guesstimate for SO for EB3I and then take away another 2.5k for COs favoritism to other EB categories? What are we looking at after taking into all these factors? trying to gauge where EB3I will be by end of this fiscal.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

My priority date is 05/16/2006 EB3 India, is there any chance it becomes current in the next few months?

YES! You will be current in the next few months, if not next month itself!!

[Spectator]

May 2017 Consular Processing Figures

DOS have published the figures for May 2017 https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics/immigrant-visas/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html

Here's the analysis of the Employment Based Classes.

May 2017 Consular Processing - Employment Classes
Class -- China -- India -- Mexico -- Philippines ---- ROW --- Total
EB1 ------- 99 ------ 6 ------- 4 ------------ 0 ---- 149 ----- 258
EB2 ------- 12 ------ 7 ------- 2 ----------- 27 ---- 212 ----- 260
EB3 ------- 35 ----- 10 ------ 29 ---------- 272 ---- 256 ----- 602
EB4 -------- 4 ----- 26 ------- 0 ------------ 5 ---- 117 ----- 152
EB5 ------ 641 ----- 18 ------- 0 ------------ 0 ----- 22 ----- 681

Total ---- 791 ----- 67 ------ 35 ---------- 304 ---- 756 --- 1,953

[Jagan01]

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-august-2017.html

EB2I is at 22JUL08
EB3I is at 15JUL06

Also important to note, EB2ROW has a cutoff date of 01APR15 and EB3ROW is C.

[itsmusa]

With this speed of Eb2I, I guess, my EB2 PD of Mar'09 would take another couple of years!

[Jagan01]

With this speed of Eb2I, I guess, my EB2 PD of Mar'09 would take another couple of years!

Things might improve next year. EB3I might just move rapidly to match EB2I date and then porting would stop. Hopefully we dont have to port to EB3I... :)

Question for Gurus, Would porting from EB2I to EB3I make sense for 2010 PDs ?

I think that the 27 month OPT is making ROW people to file GC late. Generallly they would be changing jobs in 2 years and hence when their PERM is filed in the next company they are eligible for EB2. As a result, EB2ROW fillings will keep increasing. I kind of feel that EB3ROW inventory will keep shrinking and that means good SO to EB3I in the coming years.

With EB3I inventory being very small after Aug 2007, don't you think that 2010 PDs have better chance in EB3I instead of EB2I ?

[amulchandra]

Finally I will be current on August first. PD July 12 2006. I hope I will get my GC soon. Extremely anxious now. Waiting for RFE..

[gcq]

Finally I will be current on August first. PD July 12 2006. I hope I will get my GC soon. Extremely anxious now. Waiting for RFE..
Congrats amulchandra, happy to see that !

[amulchandra]

Congrats amulchandra, happy to see that !

Thank you. But I am still waiting for my RFE. I hope I get it before August 1st so that I can respond on time.

[Spectator]

Things might improve next year. EB3I might just move rapidly to match EB2I date and then porting would stop. Hopefully we dont have to port to EB3I... :)

Question for Gurus, Would porting from EB2I to EB3I make sense for 2010 PDs ?

I think that the 27 month OPT is making ROW people to file GC late. Generallly they would be changing jobs in 2 years and hence when their PERM is filed in the next company they are eligible for EB2. As a result, EB2ROW fillings will keep increasing. I kind of feel that EB3ROW inventory will keep shrinking and that means good SO to EB3I in the coming years.

With EB3I inventory being very small after Aug 2007, don't you think that 2010 PDs have better chance in EB3I instead of EB2I ?Jagan,

I'll preface this post by saying that speculation about EB3 is likely to make me look very foolish over the passage of time.

Even trying to predict EB3-I is massively hampered by the lack of clarity beyond 2006, compounded by the effect porting / abandonment has had on the numbers.

Remainder of FY2017

If a further 2k SO is made available in September, the Cut Off Date might move to the end of 2006.

2007

For 2007, it's worth noting that only around 75% of cases with a PD of Jan-July 2007 had the PERM certified by the end of July 2007.
For 2007 as a whole, slightly under 40% of PERM cases had been certified by the end of July 2007.
The above can never have filed an I-485 under EB3, since the dates have never been current since July 2007.
Another factor is that there may be a significant number of spouses yet to file I-485 for those cases that have survived and are still in EB3. Most children are likely to be US citizens.

The current USCIS Inventory shows about 2k for Jan-July 2007. Taking the above into account, maybe the total for EB3-I for all of 2007 is nearer 6k.

2008

2008 has similar PERM numbers to 2007.

2009 to mid 2010

There is a dip in PERM certifications for this period. After July 2010 the numbers ramp up considerably.


With very good SOFAD (9k), EB3-I might be able to move as much as 18 months in a FY. That would mean mid 2008 by the end of FY2018 and somewhere in 2010 by the end of FY2019.

However, that sort of movement is likely to trigger reverse porting to EB3 by EB2-I. That is going to be far more messy than the situation seen with China, both because the disparity between EB2/EB3 demand is much greater and also due to the much larger overall demand. Once reverse porting starts, it will halt decent movement in EB3-I completely.

That assumes good SO within EB3. There's still something of a disparity between EB3-ROW Inventory numbers and the number of actual approvals which remains a concern.

The other factor that occurs to me is one of timing of forward movement of Cut Off Dates.

Currently, it seems to be taking 7-8 months for a new I-485 to be approved from submission. The majority of EB3-I movement generally occurs in the last quarter of the FY when the amount of SO can be assessed.

To ensure that sufficient cases are available to be approved, I think CO is going to have to be fairly aggressive in setting the EB3-I Filing Date at the beginning of FY2018 AND USCIS need to accept it.

Otherwise, there is the risk that visas could be available at the end of the FY without a sufficient number of cases in a position to use them. If USCIS don't accept Filing Dates, CO would be a brave man to advance the Final Action Date sufficiently early (the only other alternative) to have sufficient cases ready for approval. That would probably lead to situation of more demand than available visas at that point of time. I'm not convinced he would follow this course of action, particularly if he sees any uptick in EB3-ROW demand.

I accept the above might be a complete load of ill thought out rubbish, but perhaps it can be a starting point for those that wish to discuss the issue.

[gcvijay]

Jagan,

I'll preface this post by saying that speculation about EB3 is likely to make me look very foolish over the passage of time.

Even trying to predict EB3-I is massively hampered by the lack of clarity beyond 2006, compounded by the effect porting / abandonment has had on the numbers.

Remainder of FY2017

If a further 2k SO is made available in September, the Cut Off Date might move to the end of 2006.

2007

For 2007, it's worth noting that only around 75% of cases with a PD of Jan-July 2007 had the PERM certified by the end of July 2007.
For 2007 as a whole, slightly under 40% of PERM cases had been certified by the end of July 2007.
The above can never have filed an I-485 under EB3, since the dates have never been current since July 2007.
Another factor is that there may be a significant number of spouses yet to file I-485 for those cases that have survived and are still in EB3. Most children are likely to be US citizens.

The current USCIS Inventory shows about 2k for Jan-July 2007. Taking the above into account, maybe the total for EB3-I for all of 2007 is nearer 6k.

2008

2008 has similar PERM numbers to 2007.

2009 to mid 2010

There is a dip in PERM certifications for this period. After July 2010 the numbers ramp up considerably.


With very good SOFAD (9k), EB3-I might be able to move as much as 18 months in a FY. That would mean mid 2008 by the end of FY2018 and somewhere in 2010 by the end of FY2019.

However, that sort of movement is likely to trigger reverse porting to EB3 by EB2-I. That is going to be far more messy than the situation seen with China, both because the disparity between EB2/EB3 demand is much greater and also due to the much larger overall demand. Once reverse porting starts, it will halt decent movement in EB3-I completely.

That assumes good SO within EB3. There's still something of a disparity between EB3-ROW Inventory numbers and the number of actual approvals which remains a concern.

The other factor that occurs to me is one of timing of forward movement of Cut Off Dates.

Currently, it seems to be taking 7-8 months for a new I-485 to be approved from submission. The majority of EB3-I movement generally occurs in the last quarter of the FY when the amount of SO can be assessed.

To ensure that sufficient cases are available to be approved, I think CO is going to have to be fairly aggressive in setting the EB3-I Filing Date at the beginning of FY2018 AND USCIS need to accept it.

Otherwise, there is the risk that visas could be available at the end of the FY without a sufficient number of cases in a position to use them. If USCIS don't accept Filing Dates, CO would be a brave man to advance the Final Action Date sufficiently early (the only other alternative) to have sufficient cases ready for approval. That would probably lead to situation of more demand than available visas at that point of time. I'm not convinced he would follow this course of action, particularly if he sees any uptick in EB3-ROW demand.

I accept the above might be a complete load of ill thought out rubbish, but perhaps it can be a starting point for those that wish to discuss the issue.


Hi Spec

Thanks for all the help you are offering to the Immigrant community and in general Indian Immigrant Community. I have few questions regarding my case

1) my priority date is July 2nd 2009 and I ported from EB3 to EB2 to my current company filing under EB2. Assuming if EB3 becomes current before Eb2 for my date. Can i join the company who filed under EB3? Does priority date porting makes the EB3 petition priority date\i-140 invalid.

2) What are the chances of Filing Date for EB2 moving to a better date?

3) Do you recommend my current employer filing a EB3 petition and port my July 2nd 2009 priority date from EB2 to EB3?

Appreciate all your response. Many guys may be in the same boat like me and have these questions. Your answers will help me and many others who are confused with the EB2\EB3 priority date problems.

Thanks
VJ

[Spectator]

Hi Spec

Thanks for all the help you are offering to the Immigrant community and in general Indian Immigrant Community. I have few questions regarding my case

1) my priority date is July 2nd 2009 and I ported from EB3 to EB2 to my current company filing under EB2. Assuming if EB3 becomes current before Eb2 for my date. Can i join the company who filed under EB3? Does priority date porting makes the EB3 petition priority date\i-140 invalid.

2) What are the chances of Filing Date for EB2 moving to a better date?

3) Do you recommend my current employer filing a EB3 petition and port my July 2nd 2009 priority date from EB2 to EB3?

Appreciate all your response. Many guys may be in the same boat like me and have these questions. Your answers will help me and many others who are confused with the EB2\EB3 priority date problems.

Thanks
VJVJ,

Thanks for the kind words.

Please understand that I see my comments as "thinking out loud" and nothing more; I don't categorize it as a prediction. Please read it as such. There is simply not enough data for EB3 to know what will happen and when.

Having said that, I don't see a bright future for EB2-I in the medium term without significant changes. EB5 won't give any spillover for possibly at least 10 years. EB4 probably won't for a few years until SIJ cases work through the system. EB1, as it is, will become gradually more retrogressed for EB1-India and therefore EB1-China. I fully expect it to retrogress in the April 2018 VB next year. That would only leave the possibility of lateral SO from EB2-WW. I'm not sure how much, or how reliable that might be in the future. I sincerely hope i am wrong in that assessment. If history is a guide, PERM processing times will increase at some point which would lead to more SO for one year.

To answer your questions (to the best of my ability):

1) If the I-140 remains valid, then it would be possible. When the PD became current, you would need to inform USCIS of your wish to interfile your I-485 to the EB3 I-140 case. Porting does not invalidate the previous I-140.

2) See discussion above. I'm not sure there's any great need to move it forward greatly from the present 01FEB09, but I don't know what is in CO's mind for October.

3) It's certainly possible to get a new EB3 I-140 approved with your current Company. Assuming your EB2 I-140 is with this Company, you should be able to use your existing PERM as the basis for it. You couldn't ask USCIS to interfile your I-485 to it until the PD became current under EB3.

Although the translations can be a bit perilous, the Chinese sites have quite a lot of information and experience about the process.

I'm not going to recommend anything either way, particularly based on my speculation. I'd find it difficult if I was in the same situation.

Good luck.