EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[EB3Iwaiting]

Does anyone have a summary of the AILA monthly check in with CO this month?

[anuprab]

Does anyone have a summary of the AILA monthly check in with CO this month?

http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-for-august-and-september/

[GCwaiting]

http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-for-august-and-september/
"Based on current usage, there should be sufficient available unused EB-3 numbers worldwide to enable moderate forward movement in India EB-3 in the month of September."
The words 'sufficient available unused EB-3 numbers' sounds encouraging. What to interpret of 'moderate forward movement'. Will March-2005 be cleared? What do gurus here predict will be the date by sept-end for EB3-I? Please do reply.

[immigrant2007]

Without transparency about numbers it indicates that USCIS is not being entirely honest with the applicants.
It doesn't take rocket science to maintain immigration statistics on GC. Only people who are afraid of truth do not disclose.

[iatiam]

Looks like there will be a cut-off date for EB1 India in August bulletin.

https://twitter.com/immigrationgirl/status/745294725142425600?lang=en

Those people who moved to India in hopes of coming back and filing for EB1 might have to change plans now, at least for some time. I personally know of a few people who took such deals from their employers. Their negotiation power lied in taking up some unpopular positions in India (one guy took a job which required 100% travel) in return for a promise to return back and file EB1. Short-term pain but long-term gain.

This might not bode very well for EB2/3 India as well since all SO will now go to EB1 (can any one confirm this?). Which means all EB levels for India are equally screwed.

Fun, Fun, Fun

Iatiam

[Suva2001]

Looks like there will be a cut-off date for EB1 India in August bulletin.

https://twitter.com/immigrationgirl/status/745294725142425600?lang=en

Those people who moved to India in hopes of coming back and filing for EB1 might have to change plans now, at least for some time. I personally know of a few people who took such deals from their employers. Their negotiation power lied in taking up some unpopular positions in India (one guy took a job which required 100% travel) in return for a promise to return back and file EB1. Short-term pain but long-term gain.

This might not bode very well for EB2/3 India as well since all SO will now go to EB1 (can any one confirm this?). Which means all EB levels for India are equally screwed.

Fun, Fun, Fun

Iatiam

Your SO calculation is not right. Only vertical SO from EB1/EB4/EB5 would go to EB1 now instead of EB2-I. But horizontal SO would go to the individual categories first. As example SO from EB3ROW would go to EB3-I and not to EB1.

Thanks

[iatiam]

Your SO calculation is not right. Only vertical SO from EB1/EB4/EB5 would go to EB1 now instead of EB2-I. But horizontal SO would go to the individual categories first. As example SO from EB3ROW would go to EB3-I and not to EB1.

Thanks
Suva,

Thanks. So the implications would be different now. Rather than EB1 sucking up all SO, there is some hope for EB2I to get SO from EB2ROW. Good to know that.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Looks like there will be a cut-off date for EB1 India in August bulletin.

https://twitter.com/immigrationgirl/status/745294725142425600?lang=en

Those people who moved to India in hopes of coming back and filing for EB1 might have to change plans now, at least for some time. I personally know of a few people who took such deals from their employers. Their negotiation power lied in taking up some unpopular positions in India (one guy took a job which required 100% travel) in return for a promise to return back and file EB1. Short-term pain but long-term gain.

This might not bode very well for EB2/3 India as well since all SO will now go to EB1 (can any one confirm this?). Which means all EB levels for India are equally screwed.

Fun, Fun, Fun

IatiamIt's not unexpected and only for the remainder of the FY.

All of EB1 will become current again from October.

The retrogression will also affect China, since they will also have already exceeded 7% and be relying on FA within EB1. Since Cut Off Dates have already been established in EB4 & EB5, we know those categories should not provide any spare numbers to EB1.

As Suva said, it doesn't affect either EB2 or EB3 FA availability, since there is no provision under the INA for these visas to FU to EB1.

[Dondraper]

It looks like going forward EB1 becomes Eb2, EB2 become EB3 and EB3 becomes EB1 for India & China .

[GCwaiting]

Looks like there will be a cut-off date for EB1 India in August bulletin.
Scene for Aug & Sept....
EB1 - India & China will have cut-off dates - So no visas for Aug & Sept.
EB2-I will move 1 week more than EB3 - So no visas for Aug & Sept.
EB2-China & EB3-China - CO has already indicated that dates will nit move.
EB3 ROW - almost current - CO has acknowledged that there will be SO to EB3-I
Eb3 ROW - Co says there is high demand - should get all their quota.
That leaves only EB3-I - CO is saying that there will be sufficient visas to have moderate movement.

The question is to whom will the visas be allotted in Aug & Sept ?
Can we expect good movement in EB3-I?

[Jagan01]

It's not unexpected and only for the remainder of the FY.

All of EB1 will become current again from October.

The retrogression will also affect China, since they will also have already exceeded 7% and be relying on FA within EB1. Since Cut Off Dates have already been established in EB4 & EB5, we know those categories should not provide any spare numbers to EB1.

As Suva said, it doesn't affect either EB2 or EB3 FA availability, since there is no provision under the INA for these visas to FU to EB1.

If EB1I dates are indeed retrogressed/have cut-off in Aug/Sep VB, then it will be very interesting to see what happens next year. Technically CO should then only be allocating the EB1I allocation (approx 2800) until the SO season for FY17 and not allot any FA to EB1I until the SO season. If that does happen then EB1I may see a cut-off date soon after being current in Oct 2016.

The above scenario can lead to EB1I applications reducing as people will not be able to apply concurrently and that might get some relief to EB2I in FY17.

I hope EBIC is choked really badly as it is high time that justice needs to be done. Some users on this forum might find my statement offending but the truth is that EB1C has consistently abused the system in the name of "international managers". The above is my opinion and everyone is entitled to theirs.

The sad part is that truly deserving EB1A and EB1B will also suffer because of the abuse by EB1C.

[Spectator]

If EB1I dates are indeed retrogressed/have cut-off in Aug/Sep VB, then it will be very interesting to see what happens next year. Technically CO should then only be allocating the EB1I allocation (approx 2800) until the SO season for FY17 and not allot any FA to EB1I until the SO season. If that does happen then EB1I may see a cut-off date soon after being current in Oct 2016.Jagan,

I doubt that's what will happen.

With the almost certainty of large numbers of spare visas available as FA within EB1, there's no need to allocate purely against the 7% limits for EB1-C and EB1-I.

CO will use historical data to decide whether a COD is necessary.

That's going to show that ROW/M/P use about 23k EB1 visas per FY, leaving 17k visas available for China and India in EB1 (11k FA).

India and China have used about 19k in each of the last 2 FY. Prior to that, it was below 17k. The numbers for EB1-C/ have risen steadily over the years, whereas ROW/M/P numbers have fallen.

Since EB1 will only have to have been retrogressed once (in FY2016), CO will likely leave the dates Current for FY2017 and only retrogress them in FY2017 if necessary. That's likely to be quite late in the FY again.

If the increased demand in EB1 for India is sustained (or increases further) in FY2017, then CO may have to consider a small sustained retrogression for EB1-C/I in FY2018.

[Jagan01]

CO will use historical data to decide whether a COD is necessary.

CO tried relying on historical data for EB2ROW usage in FY15 and that did not play out well. He ended up over-allocating to EB2I and was aggressive in applying in SO.

He has learnt his lesson and has gone very cautious this year. The same lesson will apply to EB1I as well. I personally think that CO will be less aggressive and apply lesser FA to EB1I in the first 3 quarters and would leave most of the work to be done in the last quarter. If that does happen then it will be too late for EB1I to consume the FA from EB1ROW/M/P and that will be a major relief for EB2I.

I know I am being optimistic. :)

[iatiam]

Spec,

I just went to the first page of predictions and looked at your numbers. When you wrote the post you were predicting 7-11k visas for EB2I. Are the numbers still valid? Or are we going to get much less than what you predicted.

Also is your prediction of EB3I going to 2006 still valid.

Many thanks

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Spec,

I just went to the first page of predictions and looked at your numbers. When you wrote the post you were predicting 7-11k visas for EB2I. Are the numbers still valid? Or are we going to get much less than what you predicted.

Also is your prediction of EB3I going to 2006 still valid.

Many thanks

IatiamIatam,

Absolutely not.

They were initial thoughts from October and are no longer valid. I'll update it to reflect reality.

I thought I had put a warning about the potential (at that time) for EB2-ROW to increase because of the underlying PERM certifications, but I see I did not.

Given I had warned that EB4 use was exploding and that EB1 & EB2 were likely to use close to their allocation, the numbers wouldn't add up to 7-11k anyway. My bad.

[anuprab]

Spec,

I just went to the first page of predictions and looked at your numbers. When you wrote the post you were predicting 7-11k visas for EB2I. Are the numbers still valid? Or are we going to get much less than what you predicted.

Also is your prediction of EB3I going to 2006 still valid.

Many thanks

Iatiam

can anyone update EB3 predictions? all forums have been silent and understandably so as there is no new info and/or rfes...

[GCwaiting]

Hi Spec,

Please include your predictions for EB3-I also.

[iatiam]

Spec,

I see that you have updated the numbers. Thanks.

Is there any logical reason why the visa demands are increasing for every category. EB1 - I understand. EB2 - not sure why, other than the better employment picture. EB4 - did we have too many religious workers trying to get to the US. EB5 - the Chinese stock market crash might be one reason but is the demand increasing this year as well.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Spec,

I see that you have updated the numbers. Thanks.

Is there any logical reason why the visa demands are increasing for every category. EB1 - I understand. EB2 - not sure why, other than the better employment picture. EB4 - did we have too many religious workers trying to get to the US. EB5 - the Chinese stock market crash might be one reason but is the demand increasing this year as well.

IatiamIatiam,

EB1 has always been close to using all their numbers and extra visas from FB, EB4 and EB5 have saved retrogression at year end in the past.

Probably the main factor for increased EB2-ROW numbers this FY is the shortening of PERM processing times and OFLC increased productivity.

At the same, ROW itself has, based on average numbers, only contributed a few thousand extra visas from the base allocation. Philippines average contribution is 1,000 and Mexico's about 1,600.

The big contributors in the past were FB, EB4 and EB5. Currently, all of these sources have dried up.

It is also the case that ROW PERM numbers are increasing from the low number they reached in 2010. My personal belief is that a near current date for ROW/Mexico in EB3 will lead to increased numbers of Consular Processed cases and numbers of EB3-Other Worker cases. These are not going to be represented within any Trackitt numbers. Like India, no amount of retrogression will slow applications from EB3-P, due to the large numbers of RN and PT wishing to come to the USA. These are exempt from PERM and will not reflect in those figures.

EB5' s contribution disappeared several years ago. I-526 applications still continue at a high level and the processing time for an I-526 is now 16.4 months. The backlog of I-526 at the end of Q2 was 20,235. At the present I-526 approval % and dependent number, that represents 36.7k immigrant visas in the queue.

The EB4 situation is caused primarily because of the unaccompanied minors crisis on the southern border. These translate to increased Special Immigrant Juvenile (SIJ) cases under EB4. India's use within EB4 is predominantly driven by Other Religious Workers IMO.

The situation will ease somewhat as PERM certifications slow. There have been recent warnings that PERM certification times will increase due to labor shortages at OFLC

[iatiam]

Iatiam,

EB1 has always been close to using all their numbers and extra visas from FB, EB4 and EB5 have saved retrogression at year end in the past.

Probably the main factor for increased EB2-ROW numbers this FY is the shortening of PERM processing times and OFLC increased productivity.

At the same, ROW itself has, based on average numbers, only contributed a few thousand extra visas from the base allocation. Philippines average contribution is 1,000 and Mexico's about 1,600.

The big contributors in the past were FB, EB4 and EB5. Currently, all of these sources have dried up.

It is also the case that ROW PERM numbers are increasing from the low number they reached in 2010. My personal belief is that a near current date for ROW/Mexico in EB3 will lead to increased numbers of Consular Processed cases and numbers of EB3-Other Worker cases. These are not going to be represented within any Trackitt numbers. Like India, no amount of retrogression will slow applications from EB3-P, due to the large numbers of RN and PT wishing to come to the USA. These are exempt from PERM and will not reflect in those figures.

EB5' s contribution disappeared several years ago. I-526 applications still continue at a high level and the processing time for an I-526 is now 16.4 months. The backlog of I-526 at the end of Q2 was 20,235. At the present I-526 approval % and dependent number, that represents 36.7k immigrant visas in the queue.

The EB4 situation is caused primarily because of the unaccompanied minors crisis on the southern border. These translate to increased Special Immigrant Juvenile (SIJ) cases under EB4. India's use within EB4 is predominantly driven by Other Religious Workers IMO.

The situation will ease somewhat as PERM certifications slow. There have been recent warnings that PERM certification times will increase due to labor shortages at OFLC

Spec,

Thank you for that detailed explanation. If I am reading it correct, the state of US economy only has a minimal impact on SO. One-off, Knightian events have a larger contribution to it. For example, given every thing else being the same, the south border crisis and Chinese stock market crash are not events that happen every day. So do you reckon that the SO would actually increase from these categories in the near future.

Also, do you have any guidance on SO from FB quota?

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thank you for that detailed explanation. If I am reading it correct, the state of US economy only has a minimal impact on SO. One-off, Knightian events have a larger contribution to it. For example, given every thing else being the same, the south border crisis and Chinese stock market crash are not events that happen every day. So do you reckon that the SO would actually increase from these categories in the near future.

Also, do you have any guidance on SO from FB quota?

IatiamThe immigration system certainly isn't immune to the state of the US economy. The 2008/2009 crash had a significant effect on PERM certifications at that time for all Countries.

In general however, my personal view is that other events have positively impacted EB2-I in the past and negatively impacted them now as well as a recovery of the economy.

If PERM certifications slow, then it should be beneficial to the SO situation, at least in the short term. That was going to happen anyway, regardless of any OFLC problems. Currently, they are adjudicating cases faster than new applications, resulting in faster adjudication times and a reduction in the backlogs. Underlying that is a general drift upwards of total PERM applications. I'm not sure where that is heading in terms of future consequences.

There should never be any SO from FB to EB. All Countries and Categories are retrogressed in FB. Even if some ever became Current, the SO rules within FB should ensure those visas are used elsewhere within FB. There is some scope within the overall 7% limit to allow greater use in EB, but let's leave that out of the equation. FB-India is so close to using its allocation of FB visas (mainly in FB4) that it isn't really an issue.

These are my personal views as I see the situation. Others, including yourself, may disagree. I fully respect that and wouldn't argue against a contrary opinion. Mine is a necessarily simplistic view of an extremely complicated issue where quality information is a rare thing.

[GCwaiting]

Iatiam,
It is also the case that ROW PERM numbers are increasing from the low number they reached in 2010. My personal belief is that a near current date for ROW/Mexico in EB3 will lead to increased numbers of Consular Processed cases and numbers of EB3-Other Worker cases. These are not going to be represented within any Trackitt numbers. Like India, no amount of retrogression will slow applications from EB3-P, due to the large numbers of RN and PT wishing to come to the USA. These are exempt from PERM and will not reflect in those figures.

Hi Spec
Thanks for the info.
Can you please throw some light how this will adversely impact SO to EB3-I in FY'16 (only 2 months Aug & sept remain)?
CO has stated "Based on current usage, there should be sufficient available unused EB-3 numbers worldwide to enable moderate forward movement in India EB-3 in the month of September".
What in your opinion would be the movement for EB3-I in FY'16.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec
Thanks for the info.
Can you please throw some light how this will adversely impact SO to EB3-I in FY'16 (only 2 months Aug & sept remain)?
CO has stated "Based on current usage, there should be sufficient available unused EB-3 numbers worldwide to enable moderate forward movement in India EB-3 in the month of September".
What in your opinion would be the movement for EB3-I in FY'16.I've said many times that I think forecasting EB3 is far more difficult than forecasting EB2. I'm hesitant to reply to this question. Here goes anyway!

At present, Trackitt approvals for EB3-ROW are marginally higher than they were at this time last FY. Currently, there is a small but definite increase in EB3-ROW approvals on Trackitt month on month. The total number for FY2016 is set to match or exceed those seen in FY2015, when EB3-ROW received 17k approvals. It's impossible to predict Mexico or Philippines, but it's fairly safe to assume that EB3-P will see a large number of approvals, limited only by use in other categories.

Trackitt is not going to capture any increase in Consular Processed cases IMO - those people do not frequent Trackitt in great numbers. So there is a possibility that the near Current status of EB3-ROW has increased the number of CP approvals. The PERM data suggests an increase in EB3-Other Worker cases where the beneficiary is abroad. Though these are limited to 5k per year out of the total EB3 allocation, in FY2015 only about 2k were used. ROW used about 1k and Mexico 0.3k. There's plenty of room for more approvals.

CO has the most information. He has predicted movement of EB3-I to "early" 2005 by the end of the FY. Although CO has historically been very conservative, that is still probably the best data point. There's simply no reliable information available. Fairly soon, it will just become too late to issue RFE for later dates and process them within the current FY. If the dates were set to move beyond March 2005, then the following months have very few cases and just a few hundred could move the dates to "mid" 2005 and 1k could move the dates to "late" 2005.

Having said the above, I have very little confidence in it. Past history has seen very late movements for EB3-I and the numbers required to make quite large movements of the COD are very moderate.

Frankly, it could be anything, which I know is not a satisfactory reply.

[GCwaiting]

Thanks Spec,

Thanks for answering. Hope dates move at lest another 6 to 8 months.

[GCwaiting]

At present, Trackitt approvals for EB3-ROW are marginally higher than they were at this time last FY. Currently, there is a small but definite increase in EB3-ROW approvals on Trackitt month on month. The total number for FY2016 is set to match or exceed those seen in FY2015, when EB3-ROW received 17k approvals. It's impossible to predict Mexico or Philippines, but it's fairly safe to assume that EB3-P will see a large number of approvals, limited only by use in other categories.

Trackitt is not going to capture any increase in Consular Processed cases IMO - those people do not frequent Trackitt in great numbers. So there is a possibility that the near Current status of EB3-ROW has increased the number of CP approvals. The PERM data suggests an increase in EB3-Other Worker cases where the beneficiary is abroad. Though these are limited to 5k per year out of the total EB3 allocation, in FY2015 only about 2k were used. ROW used about 1k and Mexico 0.3k. There's plenty of room for more approvals.

CO has the most information. He has predicted movement of EB3-I to "early" 2005 by the end of the FY. Although CO has historically been very conservative, that is still probably the best data point. There's simply no reliable information available. Fairly soon, it will just become too late to issue RFE for later dates and process them within the current FY. If the dates were set to move beyond March 2005, then the following months have very few cases and just a few hundred could move the dates to "mid" 2005 and 1k could move the dates to "late" 2005.

Having said the above, I have very little confidence in it. Past history has seen very late movements for EB3-I and the numbers required to make quite large movements of the COD are very moderate.

Frankly, it could be anything, which I know is not a satisfactory reply.

Thanks for your explanation. I was thinking about this.
Yes the approvals this year for EB3-ROW could be more than that of last year. Last year almost 4K Visas of EB3-I got diverted to EB2-I. This year that possibility is not there.
So the total visas to EB3-I could still be the same as last year even though we have less visas available in EB3-ROW for spillover.

Can the have the same Visas to EB3-I as last year ?
What are your thoughts here ?

[asaxena2]

Thanks for your explanation. I was thinking about this.
Yes the approvals this year for EB3-ROW could be more than that of last year. Last year almost 4K Visas of EB3-I got diverted to EB2-I. This year that possibility is not there.
So the total visas to EB3-I could still be the same as last year even though we have less visas available in EB3-ROW for spillover.

Can the have the same Visas to EB3-I as last year ?
What are your thoughts here ?
---------------------

The rfes are still not coming.I am thinking that CO prediction will prove true of early 2005 date

[anuprab]

---------------------

The rfes are still not coming.I am thinking that CO prediction will prove true of early 2005 date

waiting to hear if YTEleven has anything to say...

[asaxena2]

Let us see , what the visa bulletin will tell us ?

[EB2IndSep09]

August Bulletin is out..

EB1 India 01JAN10
EB2 India 15NOV04
EB3 India 08NOV04

EB1-EB2-EB3 China 01JAN10

[Spectator]

August Bulletin is out..

EB1 India 01JAN10
EB2 India 15NOV04
EB3 India 08NOV04

EB1-EB2-EB3 China 01JAN10Personally, I think the other movements and potential trends described in the VB are more revealing:


D. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED FOURTH (E4) AND CERTAIN RELIGIOUS WORKERS (SR) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES

As readers were advised in the May Visa Bulletin number 92, there has been extremely high demand in the E4 and SR categories, primarily for Juvenile Court Dependent cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. Pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act, this has now required the implementation of E4 and SR Application Final Action Dates for India, which has reached its per-country limit. This action will allow the Department to hold worldwide number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2016 annual limits.
The India E4 and SR dates will become CURRENT for October.

E. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE CHINA AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIRST (E1) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES

Readers were advised in item F of the July Visa Bulletin number 94, that it would be necessary to impose a date for these two countries no later than September. The continued high level of demand for E1 numbers for USCIS adjustment of status applicants has required the establishment of a date for August. This has been done in an attempt to hold number use within the Worldwide E1 annual limit. The E1 date for these two countries will once again become CURRENT for October, the first month of fiscal year 2017.

F. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE WORLDWIDE, EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, MEXICO, AND PHILIPPINES EMPLOYMENT-BASED SECOND (E2) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES

Readers were advised in item F of the July Visa Bulletin number 94, that it was likely that a date would be imposed by September. Continued high demand for numbers for USCIS adjustment of status applicants has required the establishment of a date for August. This action has been required to hold number use within the Worldwide E2 annual limit. The date for these countries will once again become CURRENT for October, the first month of fiscal year 2017.

G. VISA AVAILABILITY

Number use in the Worldwide F2A and F3 preference categories has increased dramatically, and is quickly approaching those fiscal year 2016 annual limits. Therefore, it may be necessary to retrogress those final application dates for the month of September. Any retrogression in the F2A and F3 preference categories would be temporary, with those dates returning to the latest reached during FY-2016 when the October dates are announced.

The retrogression of EB2-WW to 01FEB14 seems to seal the deal about any possible SO to EB2-I from any source in FY2016.

The warnings about various FB categories suggests that CO will, again, properly use the full FB allocation and there will be virtually no spare visas available to EB in FY2017.

[4WatItsWorth]

Personally, I think the other movements and potential trends described in the VB are more revealing:


The retrogression of EB2-WW to 01FEB14 seems to seal the deal about any possible SO to EB2-I from any source in FY2016.

The warnings about various FB categories suggests that CO will, again, properly use the full FB allocation and there will be virtually no spare visas available to EB in FY2017.
So, I guess that's it for US immigration for the rest of us. Those who have gotten their GCs, good for them. The rest of us in 2008, 2009 and beyond who do not even have EADs yet should Just move on. Those dates are not going to see the light of day for a long long time. Would you agree?

[derekjbj]

Q, just checking to see when will the forecast on whereismygc be updated?

[asankaran]

Q, just checking to see when will the forecast on whereismygc be updated?

The whole system has been rigged especially in the last one year. No meaningful data, so even if there is spillover they would retrogress the date!

[jimmys]

Why EB3-I is not moved? That means no SO for EB3-I?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Why EB3-I is not moved? That means no SO for EB3-I?

Because as per rule, someone from ROW who has filed in 2015 should get GC first than someone from India who has filed in 2004. All in the name of "diversity".

The faster PERM certifications sealed the deal this year for EB3I. The only question is, will EB3ROW be able to sustain this demand now that PERMs stuck in the pipeline are cleared? If Indians take around 75% of H1Bs, where will all the EB3ROWs continue to come from?

[iatiam]

Not to distract any one from the disappointing VB, but here is an interesting piece on Hillary's position on immigration,
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/the-tech-lobby-should-be-really-nervous-about-what-hillary-clinton-just-said.html

Essentially Silicon valley needs more tech slaves and she will not allow even that, until all the illegal immigrants are "regularized". If she becomes the president, it will be more of the same Obama's dysfunctional stance.

Rejoice!

Iatiam

[gcq]

Not to distract any one from the disappointing VB, but here is an interesting piece on Hillary's position on immigration,
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/12/the-tech-lobby-should-be-really-nervous-about-what-hillary-clinton-just-said.html

Essentially Silicon valley needs more tech slaves and she will not allow even that, until all the illegal immigrants are "regularized". If she becomes the president, it will be more of the same Obama's dysfunctional stance.

Rejoice!

Iatiam

Democrat's policy is going to be the same till election. Because they want latino votes. But once elected, they may change the stance. I think Hillary is much more sensible person in the lines of her husband. Anyways under GOP nobody is going to get anything. So I still support democrats as far as immigration goes.

[iatiam]

Democrat's policy is going to be the same till election. Because they want latino votes. But once elected, they may change the stance. I think Hillary is much more sensible person in the lines of her husband. Anyways under GOP nobody is going to get anything. So I still support democrats as far as immigration goes.

GCQ,

How long do you think it will be before Hillary will change her stance and support high-skilled immigration? The election is in Nov 2016 and she will be in office in January 2017. I am of course assuming a high chance of her becoming the president.

We can perhaps re-visit this thread and see how it went.

BTW, here is a question that was asked in Quora, a seemingly good website. The question was asked to Ms. Clinton as part of her "session" where she answers question posted earlier.

https://www.quora.com/Inhumanely-long-Green-Card-wait-times-are-a-huge-problem-for-many-highly-skilled-workers-What-specifically-will-Hillary-Clinton-do-to-fix-it

Interestingly, she chose not to answer it.


Regards

Iatiam

[geterdone]

GCQ,

How long do you think it will be before Hillary will change her stance and support high-skilled immigration? The election is in Nov 2016 and she will be in office in January 2017. I am of course assuming a high chance of her becoming the president.

We can perhaps re-visit this thread and see how it went.

BTW, here is a question that was asked in Quora, a seemingly good website. The question was asked to Ms. Clinton as part of her "session" where she answers question posted earlier.

https://www.quora.com/Inhumanely-long-Green-Card-wait-times-are-a-huge-problem-for-many-highly-skilled-workers-What-specifically-will-Hillary-Clinton-do-to-fix-it

Interestingly, she chose not to answer it.


Regards

Iatiam

I don't think anything will happen irrespective of who comes to power. I think Q has been always right that the best chance is to fight it in the court arguing discrimination. The question is who will take up this challenge. It may be a long shot but I think the best.

[gcq]

GCQ,

How long do you think it will be before Hillary will change her stance and support high-skilled immigration? The election is in Nov 2016 and she will be in office in January 2017. I am of course assuming a high chance of her becoming the president.

We can perhaps re-visit this thread and see how it went.

BTW, here is a question that was asked in Quora, a seemingly good website. The question was asked to Ms. Clinton as part of her "session" where she answers question posted earlier.

https://www.quora.com/Inhumanely-long-Green-Card-wait-times-are-a-huge-problem-for-many-highly-skilled-workers-What-specifically-will-Hillary-Clinton-do-to-fix-it

Interestingly, she chose not to answer it.


Regards

Iatiam
From what we have seen so far, I don't see how things can improve on immigration front. Democrats had majority in both Senate and House, they didn't even try to fix immigration. Obama care was their priority. Then we had Dem president with GOP house and senate. Again nothing happened. The only thing that is left to try is GOP president with GOP house and Senate. With Trump being GOP candidate and the right wing tilt of GOP, I don't see Trump becoming president. Is hope lost completely ? No. Like cricket, anything is possible in politics. Hillary is smart, also she is the wife of a president who gave us AC21. So I have hope. No idea how soon it is going to happen or whether it will ever happen.

[iatiam]

Since a democratic WH, house and senate didn't work, I think I am ready for a republican WH, house and senate. Absolutely not a fan of Trump at all. But hey, what's there to lose other than what we are facing right now.

The biggest difference between the current administration and the previous ones is that the previous one's had an inclination to work with congress to get things done. So President Bush brought forth the last effort in 2007,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Immigration_Reform_Act_of_2007

At that time democrats were holding both house and senate.

When President Clinton signed AC21 to law, republicans were holding both house and senate.

Part of being a leader is willingness to work with both sides of the aisle. Unfortunately, we haven't seen it with this administration.

[tatikonda]

I have seen a video in which Immigration lawyer (Rahul reddy ) from Reddy & Neumann, P.C seen as pooling H1B employers (collecting money ) and encouraging them to fight against immigration reforms. This appears to be one of the reasons why USCIS proposed - Filing dates have gone back in infamous October 2015 Visa Bulletin.

Please see if this is legal or not.
several people are adversely effected by this process.
Please share this ...

https://youtu.be/uWRzl6_GARQ

[smuggymba]

Since a democratic WH, house and senate didn't work, I think I am ready for a republican WH, house and senate. Absolutely not a fan of Trump at all. But hey, what's there to lose other than what we are facing right now.

The biggest difference between the current administration and the previous ones is that the previous one's had an inclination to work with congress to get things done. So President Bush brought forth the last effort in 2007,
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comprehensive_Immigration_Reform_Act_of_2007

At that time democrats were holding both house and senate.

When President Clinton signed AC21 to law, republicans were holding both house and senate.

Part of being a leader is willingness to work with both sides of the aisle. Unfortunately, we haven't seen it with this administration.

Trump will do what he likes; he won't work with either dems and reps

[tatikonda]

Anyone saw this video ? please see this video and see how greedy companies & lawyers trying to stop/delay immigration reforms. specifically new filing date



I have seen a video in which Immigration lawyer (Rahul reddy ) from Reddy & Neumann, P.C seen as pooling H1B employers (collecting money ) and encouraging them to fight against immigration reforms. This appears to be one of the reasons why USCIS proposed - Filing dates have gone back in infamous October 2015 Visa Bulletin.

Please see if this is legal or not.
several people are adversely effected by this process.
Please share this ...

https://youtu.be/uWRzl6_GARQ

[Sub#Ash]

Hi everyone - Though I have been a regular visitor of Q blog, I have always refrained from posting on this forum as my prediction skills are not good. I thought I will register today and post my thoughts here as I feel very bad for whats going on in Immigration realm, especially EB2. Current situation for EB2 applicants is much worse than what a Criminal OR an Illegal Immigrant goes through in this country. They atleast know that they have done something wrong and are prepared to pay the price. But what EB2 is going through is unprecedented and if am not wrong this started from 2014 onwards. Though I was lucky to scrape thru in 2013 window to get my GC, MY wife is still stuck with a 2010 Feb PD. Even after living in this country for 15+ years I am still made to watch for Visa bulletin every month. I know I am in a better situation than some of my other friends who missed the boat, but my heart goes out to everyone who is looking at this current situation. Back in 2013 we atleast had the hope that the dates will move atleast a year every year, but whats we are seeing now is a 1 month movement or maybe even less than that every year. Someone on this forum put it the right way "Is this the end of US Immigration for all ?" . I personally do not think so. We software folks from India are smart, no question about that and cud do a bit more, I am ready to pitch in if anyone has any ideas. I personally feel that filing a mass lawsuit fighting this discrimination and highlighting the things that have gone wrong earlier might help us here. Also, as someone else on this forum said, I believe Hillary is smart to fix things and hope Dems control both the House and Senate to end this nonsense.

[srimurthy]

Anyone saw this video ? please see this video and see how greedy companies & lawyers trying to stop/delay immigration reforms. specifically new filing date
This video is no longer available and taken out because of copy right issues.

[smuggymba]

This video is no longer available and taken out because of copy right issues.

It's available under different user names.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVxXqAi-y3c

[Raj0687]

It's available under different user names.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EVxXqAi-y3c

Looks like this is not the correct video, the correct one should have the Rahul's presentation on the impact of the original I-140 EAD to the employers and how to lobby/screw up the rule.

Looks like he removed the video every where on the web, If any body has it, please upload and share it.

[smuggymba]

Looks like this is not the correct video, the correct one should have the Rahul's presentation on the impact of the original I-140 EAD to the employers and how to lobby/screw up the rule.

Looks like he removed the video every where on the web, If any body has it, please upload and share it.

Everyone knows now so it doesn't matter. Now it's time to update Itellisofttech and Rahul Reddy's reviews on google. check those out and we should add more.

[qesehmk]

Everyone knows now so it doesn't matter. Now it's time to update Itellisofttech and Rahul Reddy's reviews on google. check those out and we should add more.

Sorry can you elaborate that? I completely missed this conversation.

[na_dev]

Everyone knows now so it doesn't matter. Now it's time to update Itellisofttech and Rahul Reddy's reviews on google. check those out and we should add more.

I think this is the original video.

http://www.veoh.com/watch/v108126019cxrJJ9fa

[arnab221]

Spectator ,
Given there will be no spillover from EB2RoW ,will Eb2 the dates move to Aug 2007 in Oct visa bulletin ? Where will EB2I stabilize in FY2017 ?

[smuggymba]

Sorry can you elaborate that? I completely missed this conversation.

Q - There was a video posted on youtube where ITServ alliance members were having a meeting and Rahul Reddy (Houston attorney) and Intellisofttech CEO Satish Manduva (https://www.linkedin.com/in/satish-manduva-27080b) were talking about the fact that if people get EAD right after filing for 140, it would be a big detriment to their company and they were planning to file a lawsuit against this provision that would have helped people like us stuck in backlogs. Rahul Reddy was also asking them to "take control" and push this forward and asked 100K to be set aside.

The desi suckers who came here on H4/H1/F1 etc themselves are trying to ruin our lives; scumbags. I wish everyone goes there an updates their reviews on google.

[qesehmk]

Q - There was a video posted on youtube where ITServ alliance members were having a meeting and Rahul Reddy (Houston attorney) and Intellisofttech CEO Satish Manduva (https://www.linkedin.com/in/satish-manduva-27080b) were talking about the fact that if people get EAD right after filing for 140, it would be a big detriment to their company and they were planning to file a lawsuit against this provision that would have helped people like us stuck in backlogs. Rahul Reddy was also asking them to "take control" and push this forward and asked 100K to be set aside.

The desi suckers who came here on H4/H1/F1 etc themselves are trying to ruin our lives; scumbags. I wish everyone goes there an updates their reviews on google.
Thank you smuggymba.

Unfortunately EVERYBODY understands this game except the sheeples that are H1B folks. Friends - wake up. I understood this long time back in 2004 and fought with my HR. My exact words to my HR were "I am not a slave".

Friends - tell that you yourself first. The problem today is that almost everybody here has a 6 figure package --- some of you probably have a 300K-500K package. But don't let that blind you. Your worth is more than that damn package. Freedom is invaluable.

I am not here to give you a sermon. This video just confirms what we already know. The question is - as an individual what is the worth of your freedom? Fight back ... take on this unjust system. Use that video in the courts. You are wrong in believing that there are no lawyers who will fight for you. That is absolutely not true. You just haven't found one yet.

[qesehmk]

Hi everyone - Though I have been a regular visitor of Q blog, I have always refrained from posting on this forum as my prediction skills are not good. I thought I will register today and post my thoughts here as I feel very bad for whats going on in Immigration realm, especially EB2. Current situation for EB2 applicants is much worse than what a Criminal OR an Illegal Immigrant goes through in this country. They atleast know that they have done something wrong and are prepared to pay the price. But what EB2 is going through is unprecedented and if am not wrong this started from 2014 onwards. Though I was lucky to scrape thru in 2013 window to get my GC, MY wife is still stuck with a 2010 Feb PD. Even after living in this country for 15+ years I am still made to watch for Visa bulletin every month. I know I am in a better situation than some of my other friends who missed the boat, but my heart goes out to everyone who is looking at this current situation. Back in 2013 we atleast had the hope that the dates will move atleast a year every year, but whats we are seeing now is a 1 month movement or maybe even less than that every year. Someone on this forum put it the right way "Is this the end of US Immigration for all ?" . I personally do not think so. We software folks from India are smart, no question about that and cud do a bit more, I am ready to pitch in if anyone has any ideas. I personally feel that filing a mass lawsuit fighting this discrimination and highlighting the things that have gone wrong earlier might help us here. Also, as someone else on this forum said, I believe Hillary is smart to fix things and hope Dems control both the House and Senate to end this nonsense.

Thanks Sub. Welcome to forum. Why dont you file your wife's green card in Family category. She will get her GC yesterday.

[asaxena2]

In few hours from now we will be in FY15, this will be my last post in FY14.
I've a very positive prediction for EB3-India folks who are waiting for more than 10 years in the GC Q.
Back in May'14 I was predicting that EB3-India will have bright future ahead in this post: here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/5-EB3-Predictions-amp-Calculations?p=46298#post46298)

After a thorough data analysis I could say that in FY16 we will see a complete wipe out of EB3-I I485 inventory as shown in this graph:EB3-I I485 inventory trends (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92UnBIMC1qRDMzb0U/edit?usp=sharing)
Here I'm comparing the same graph with current EB3-ROW inventory trend:EB3-I I485 inventory trends comparing with EB3-ROW inventory trend (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92NE5OT2lnaGdrSmM/edit?usp=sharing)

After seeing these graphs you might question why would we see 20k spillover to EB3-I in FY16. This is what I'm getting from all the available data pointers.
After FY15 there will not be any demand for EB3 to consume its yearly 40k visas and that gives a massive horizontal spillover to EB3-India.
So this means we will have inventory buildup for EB3-I also in FY16.

Already, this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=53828#post53828) predicts that there is a possibility for EB2-I inventory building in FY16.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Any changes in the update ?

[vedu]

Thank you smuggymba.

Unfortunately EVERYBODY understands this game except the sheeples that are H1B folks. Friends - wake up. I understood this long time back in 2004 and fought with my HR. My exact words to my HR were "I am not a slave".

Friends - tell that you yourself first. The problem today is that almost everybody here has a 6 figure package --- some of you probably have a 300K-500K package. But don't let that blind you. Your worth is more than that damn package. Freedom is invaluable.

I am not here to give you a sermon. This video just confirms what we already know. The question is - as an individual what is the worth of your freedom? Fight back ... take on this unjust system. Use that video in the courts. You are wrong in believing that there are no lawyers who will fight for you. That is absolutely not true. You just haven't found one yet.

Q, What freedom are you talking about? Just getting a green card doesn't set anybody free. For example, after getting green card, try quitting the job and sitting at home OR stop making a mortgage payment, etc. and then one will realize how superficial this freedom is! One still has to be slave to his/her employer, or may be if you change one...then to the next employer! The true freedom comes with only complete financial independence, and then GC doesn't make much difference! My two cents...

[qesehmk]

Q, What freedom are you talking about? Just getting a green card doesn't set anybody free. For example, after getting green card, try quitting the job and sitting at home OR stop making a mortgage payment, etc. and then one will realize how superficial this freedom is! One still has to be slave to his/her employer, or may be if you change one...then to the next employer! The true freedom comes with only complete financial independence, and then GC doesn't make much difference! My two cents...
Good point Vedu. I do agree with you on your broader viewpoint. One can take the same even further and beyond financial freedom and ask if one is really free!! Right?

I was only talking about the slavery that H1B has become. I personally felt truly freed when I received my own GC long time back. I just hated the fact that I was tied to an employer, I was given a different badge than regular employees, I couldn't physically go into certain office locations, I had to always worry about visa stampings, couldnt bring the courage to buy a house and so on and so forth.

[vedu]

Good point Vedu. I do agree with you on your broader viewpoint. One can take the same even further and beyond financial freedom and ask if one is really free!! Right?

I was only talking about the slavery that H1B has become. I personally felt truly freed when I received my own GC long time back. I just hated the fact that I was tied to an employer, I was given a different badge than regular employees, I couldn't physically go into certain office locations, I had to always worry about visa stampings, couldnt bring the courage to buy a house and so on and so forth.

Q, I know and agree with what you are referring to. Sorry for diverting the main topic of discussion. I am still waiting for my own GC, but was fortunate to receive EAD by sheer luck once when they temporarily moved the dates all the way to April, 10. Since then life has certainly been easier!

[qesehmk]

Q, I know and agree with what you are referring to. Sorry for diverting the main topic of discussion. I am still waiting for my own GC, but was fortunate to receive EAD by sheer luck once when they temporarily moved the dates all the way to April, 10. Since then life has certainly been easier!
Don't be sorry. Exchange of thoughts is welcome and refreshing!

[gcq]

On a more religious point of view for vedu's comment about freedom. The lack of "freedom" is destined for human beings. :-)

From Bible:

To Adam he said, "Because you listened to your wife and ate fruit from the tree about which I commanded you, 'You must not eat from it,' "Cursed is the ground because of you; through painful toil you will eat food from it all the days of your life.

[qesehmk]

On a more religious point of view for vedu's comment about freedom. The lack of "freedom" is destined for human beings. :-)

From Bible:
LoL!!

Unless you are a swami / baba / priest / or a government babu. Then you get to eat without toiling at all.

[GCwaiting]

I have been following date movement very closely since Sept 2015. It has been very frustrating after every VB. Really fed up. 12 years is a long time. Looking back, I feel I have sacrificed a lot for this. Hope life turns better after I get GC (god knows when). Talking of freedom, at least I am free from watching this stupid date movement.
I feel we must educate every new person coming from our country India ... what is in store. This is absolutely ridiculous. I make it a point to tell everybody to seriously think before taking this step. Coming for higher education here ... looking for an opening thereafter is like death trap.

[iamsam]

Q I am in same boat as Sub#Ash. Can you please elaborate how a spouse can get GC faster in family category as compared to waiting for I-485 approval. F2A dates are somewhere in 2009. So if we apply for our spouse in family category, she shall have a PD of 2016. Please correct me if I am wrong.
We were married before my I-485 was filed; My wife was visiting india when I got current (PD Jan 2009: EB2-I); We missed the window for her hoping that retrogression was temporary.
Had we known that dates will never return; She could have flown back. Anyway that is history.
Even though I have my GC for a while; I still visit this forum to get trends for my wife's pending I-485 :)
Thanks for your help.


Thanks Sub. Welcome to forum. Why dont you file your wife's green card in Family category. She will get her GC yesterday.

[qesehmk]

Q I am in same boat as Sub#Ash. Can you please elaborate how a spouse can get GC faster in family category as compared to waiting for I-485 approval. F2A dates are somewhere in 2009. So if we apply for our spouse in family category, she shall have a PD of 2016. Please correct me if I am wrong.
We were married before my I-485 was filed; My wife was visiting india when I got current (PD Jan 2009: EB2-I); We missed the window for her hoping that retrogression was temporary.
Had we known that dates will never return; She could have flown back. Anyway that is history.
Even though I have my GC for a while; I still visit this forum to get trends for my wife's pending I-485 :)
Thanks for your help.

I thought the date was in 2014/1015. So I checked Aug bulletin and yes I am right.

What am I missing?

[iamsam]

Q
My bad; Yes the dates are in Nov 14 for F2A. But they have only moved ~9 months in an year.
So on that logic; if we apply today for my wife, it will take another 2 years to get GC under F2A. The dilemma is whether EB2-I will reach Jan 5, 2009 (my PD) by then or not?
Or should i just wait to be a citizen by 2019 and then apply for her and get her GC right away and meanwhile we wait for her EB2 and stay on EAD/AP.




I thought the date was in 2014/1015. So I checked Aug bulletin and yes I am right.

What am I missing?

[gcq]

Q
My bad; Yes the dates are in Nov 14 for F2A. But they have only moved ~9 months in an year.
So on that logic; if we apply today for my wife, it will take another 2 years to get GC under F2A. The dilemma is whether EB2-I will reach Jan 5, 2009 (my PD) by then or not?
Or should i just wait to be a citizen by 2019 and then apply for her and get her GC right away and meanwhile we wait for her EB2 and stay on EAD/AP.

Q and others can provide a better response. But from what I see, as long as it is legal to have both FB application and EB application in parallel, it is advisable to to apply in F2A. Take advantage of both routes. You never know which one is going to move faster. In case you have to wait till you get your Citizenship, you can upgrade the F2A application to get it approved as the spouse of a citizen.

[almost]

Hello All,
Seems like there is a petition going on for recapture of unused visa numbers from the past. A friend sent me this via whatsapp; please try and sign this. I know its a broken record but it doesn't harm to sign it.

QUOTING
H1-B,L1,F1 and EAD holders
Please spend 2 minutes of your time to help yourself!
Skilled Immigrants of America has opened a petition to white house to provide update on I140 based EAD and Recapture 500K wasted Green cards
1) How can you help yourself?
We need 100k signs by end of Aug 10, 2016. This is time sensitive!
a)We need your support by you and asking family members, friends to sign the petition. By going to below link and enter name and email details and then click the confirm link in the email.
http://tinyurl.com/z7aqbgr
Or scan this QR code with QR scanner app from your phone.
b) Share above URL in your Facebook timeline and ask tag all your friends to sign the petition and ask them to do the same in their face book timeline.
a) Copy the petition link, paste in your time line. At bottom of your screen click Tag friends/people and select the friends and click Post.
2) What happens after 100k signs are reached?
We will get an official update from white house on I140 EAD and recapture of 500k wasted green cards which will change your life in USA!!
3) How you will benefit?
a) Recapture of 500k Green cards will fetch you green cards within 1 year instead of 20 to 50 years wait time.
b) Using I140 EAD, you can change any employer without H1B visa, not have to be dependent on employer.
Join skilled immigrants of America Face book group. We have 100k members! Go to this link and click join Group:
http://tinyurl.com/FBSK2016

[smuggymba]

The end result of petition is a standard boring response from White House. Yes, signing is a waste of time. It has been many times before, you can read the response from WH on those.

[qesehmk]

Q and others can provide a better response. But from what I see, as long as it is legal to have both FB application and EB application in parallel, it is advisable to to apply in F2A. Take advantage of both routes. You never know which one is going to move faster. In case you have to wait till you get your Citizenship, you can upgrade the F2A application to get it approved as the spouse of a citizen.

Absolutely. I wouldnt suggest anybody abandon EB path.

[almost]

The end result of petition is a standard boring response from White House. Yes, signing is a waste of time. It has been many times before, you can read the response from WH on those.

smuggymba,
As I said there is no harm in trying. Maybe we haven't made a big enough noise earlier or maybe this will be that one more time that does it. The more signatures we get the better chances we have. It takes less time to sign it then grabbing coffee at work and given the stakes we have in this, its certainly worth trying if one can. Even god helps those who try to help themselves.

[smuggymba]

smuggymba,
As I said there is no harm in trying. Maybe we haven't made a big enough noise earlier or maybe this will be that one more time that does it. The more signatures we get the better chances we have. It takes less time to sign it then grabbing coffee at work and given the stakes we have in this, its certainly worth trying if one can. Even god helps those who try to help themselves.

Sorry almost but it's a waste of time; trust me.

The end results is something like this - The White House is committed to making America competitive in the world and we understand the importance of high-skilled workers etc. etc. etc.etc. etc. ...............that's it, nothing else. The outcome is a 5-6 liner standard response.

[almost]

Sorry almost but it's a waste of time; trust me.

The end results is something like this - The White House is committed to making America competitive in the world and we understand the importance of high-skilled workers etc. etc. etc.etc. etc. ...............that's it, nothing else. The outcome is a 5-6 liner standard response.


smuggymba,
I fully understand and appreciate what you say; I believe I accepted that in my first post itself. The fact remains that if you have enough muscle behind it people eventually listen. Honestly, it takes less time to sign it then to keep making a moot point. Also, pessimism has never accomplished anything; the resolve should go up with every failure and eventually you will succeed.

[gcq]

Can FOIA requests be turned down that easily ?

From my understanding all departments are required to comply with FOIA. I was thinking of requesting an yearly FOIA from CO regarding the details of visa bullletin moment decisions - as to why he arrived at a particular decision, what all laws were taken into account. How did he make sure he complying with INA etc.

http://www.murthy.com/2016/07/20/president-signs-law-to-improve-freedom-of-information/

On June 30, 2016, President Obama signed a law aimed at strengthening the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). The Freedom of Information Improvement Act of 2016 implements policies to increase the transparency by the U.S. federal government. These important changes come on the eve of the 50th anniversary of the original FOIA going into effect.Background: 2009 Presidential MandateOn his first day in office, President Obama issued a memorandum that directed government agencies to favor disclosure to the public. The memorandum set forth a policy of timely information disclosure and increased openness and transparency by the federal government.
Increased FOIA Filings and Resources Since 2009Since 2009, the government has processed more than 4.6 million FOIA requests and made publically available more than 180,000 federal datasets and collections. There is now a centralized FOIA resource (http://www.foia.gov/) and a shared FOIA case-management system and public portal (http://www.foiaonline.gov/). The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) also has a mobile FOIA app, due to the large volume of immigration-related FOIA requests.
The Obama administration has provided extensive FOIA outreach, established a FOIA ombudsman, and formed a federal advisory committee for FOIA. More details on these activities are available in the MurthyDotCom NewsBrief, Improved FOIA System for Immigration-Related Requests (http://www.murthy.com/2014/03/20/improved-foia-system-for-immigration-related-requests/) (20.Mar.2014).
Summary of the FOIA Improvement Act of 2016The FOIA Improvement Act lays a foundation for one consolidated FOIA portal for all federal government agencies; prior to the enactment of the bill, 12 agencies were already using this online system. The law also curtails how and to what extent the federal government can deny a records request under any of the nine exemptions provided for under FOIA. The new law further places a 25-year limit on withholding information under "exemption 5," which allows the government to deny a FOIA request for privileged inter- and intra-agency documents, such as privileged attorney work product. Prior to this, such documents could be withheld indefinitely.
The FOIA Improvement Act also creates a new chief FOIA officers council to work with stakeholders inside and outside of the government to identify and address the biggest problems the public encounters when trying to access records via FOIA. The council also looks into the "release to one is a release to all" presumption by having all documents released three or more times under FOIA online.
ConclusionThe streamlined policies and transparency should help to obtain information through FOIA filings. This is of particular importance in the immigration context, given the massive number of immigration-related FOIA requests that are made each year.

[skpanda]

Any Shashank Redemption fans?

Write a letter every week until Govt decides to give atleast part of what you want.
Then you write a letter every day until Govt decides to give what you want.

Similarly:

Open the same petition every month (with updates saying, Govt's empty words to last petition does not help in any way) and get to 100K signatures. They will not be giving the same answer after few months.


Just my thought.




smuggymba,
I fully understand and appreciate what you say; I believe I accepted that in my first post itself. The fact remains that if you have enough muscle behind it people eventually listen. Honestly, it takes less time to sign it then to keep making a moot point. Also, pessimism has never accomplished anything; the resolve should go up with every failure and eventually you will succeed.

[qesehmk]

Any Shashank Redemption fans?

Write a letter every week until Govt decides to give atleast part of what you want.
Then you write a letter every day until Govt decides to give what you want.

Similarly:

Open the same petition every month (with updates saying, Govt's empty words to last petition does not help in any way) and get to 100K signatures. They will not be giving the same answer after few months.


Just my thought.
Great post!!

Do it methodically .. with discipline ... and don't forget to publicize wherever possible. Sitting idle is going to take you nowhere for sure. You might as well do something.

[Jagan01]

Spec,

You have maintained the trackitt approvals at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011

The EB2ROW approvals are lesser than what they were at the same time last year. I do not understand why the EB2ROW retrogression happened. Either the trackitt to real world representation changed OR there is seriously something wrong and we might be in for a surprise where EB2ROW under utilizes and gives some SO to EB2I. Your take ?

[YTeleven]

I know the 140-EAD petitions came several times before but it never crossed the 62K signs though there are more than 100k affected people in this category.
Here is the new petition, please sign it:
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/no-respite-highly-skilled-americans-waiting-need-portable-work-authorization-recapture-500k-green-cards

I urge our F1-OPT friends to take this URL to their groups and sign it to cross 100k Signs before 10-Aug-2016.
You might think how is this useful to you as this is related to 140-EAD.
But after 2 years from now you will be in H1 Q and eventually in GC Q with 140, you will then need this desperately.

[tatikonda]

As of today 77,401 signed. only 22.5k signatures required.
please help in signing this petition.


I know the 140-EAD petitions came several times before but it never crossed the 62K signs though there are more than 100k affected people in this category.
Here is the new petition, please sign it:
https://petitions.whitehouse.gov/petition/no-respite-highly-skilled-americans-waiting-need-portable-work-authorization-recapture-500k-green-cards

I urge our F1-OPT friends to take this URL to their groups and sign it to cross 100k Signs before 10-Aug-2016.
You might think how is this useful to you as this is related to 140-EAD.
But after 2 years from now you will be in H1 Q and eventually in GC Q with 140, you will then need this desperately.

[whereismygc]

As of today 77,401 signed. only 22.5k signatures required.
please help in signing this petition.

Tatikonda / YT

Would you like us to blast an email to WhereismyGC users?

If so please draft content and reply right here.

[Jagan01]

Tatikonda / YT

Would you like us to blast an email to WhereismyGC users?

If so please draft content and reply right here.
I personally think that stating a lie in the petition is not good.

The petition states "Thousands of green cards are being wasted every year, with an estimated 500,000 green cards wasted so far, while the highly-skilled workers continue to wait in a queue that may take 20-50 years.".

"are being" is present progressive tense. I do not believe EB green cards are wasted these days. They used to be wasted. I hope someone corrects it.

[qesehmk]

It may not be a lie. As I said - last year in 2015 - one can't reconcile EB3-I and EB2-I inventory reduction vs visas allocated. There is something fishy there. I do believe that is wastage.

I do not know whoever wrote that petition has actually done the calculation or is just shooting it off in the hope that it will stick.

So those claims may be unsubstantiated but I do not believe they are lies.

I personally think that stating a lie in the petition is not good.

The petition states "Thousands of green cards are being wasted every year, with an estimated 500,000 green cards wasted so far, while the highly-skilled workers continue to wait in a queue that may take 20-50 years.".

"are being" is present progressive tense. I do not believe EB green cards are wasted these days. They used to be wasted. I hope someone corrects it.

[EB3Iwaiting]

It may not be a lie. As I said - last year in 2015 - one can't reconcile EB3-I and EB2-I inventory reduction vs visas allocated. There is something fishy there. I do believe that is wastage.

Interesting you say that. I do remember that when the 2015 report came out originally, Section 5 "Immigrant Visas issued..." was not published. We all thought it was because of the lawsuit going on at that time. Later when it did come out, we all saw the misallocation of EB3 Gcs to EB2.

[qesehmk]

Interesting you say that. I do remember that when the 2015 report came out originally, Section 5 "Immigrant Visas issued..." was not published. We all thought it was because of the lawsuit going on at that time. Later when it did come out, we all saw the misallocation of EB3 Gcs to EB2.
Try to reconcile visas allocated vs inventory reduction. I'd be curious what you find. I have done that. But want to know if others see what I see.

[Spectator]

Interesting you say that. I do remember that when the 2015 report came out originally, Section 5 "Immigrant Visas issued..." was not published. We all thought it was because of the lawsuit going on at that time. Later when it did come out, we all saw the misallocation of EB3 Gcs to EB2.EB3Iwaiting,

Table V is almost always the last to be published and has been as much as 2 months later in previous years. There was nothing new this year.


Try to reconcile visas allocated vs inventory reduction. I'd be curious what you find. I have done that. But want to know if others see what I see.Q,

I'm not sure where you are going with this.

I've also carried out this exercise some time ago and the EB2/EB3-I numbers reconcile to within about 0.2k cases over 14.3k total approvals for FY2015.

The exercise also suggested reductions in the EB3-I inventory related to porting in FY2015 was about 3.8k, split 25% for cases within the COD that EB3-I eventually reached for the FY (22DEC04) and 75% for cases beyond the COD that EB3-I eventually reached.

[saagar_is_cool]

EB3Iwaiting,

Table V is almost always the last to be published and has been as much as 2 months later in previous years. There was nothing new this year.

Q,

I'm not sure where you are going with this.

I've also carried out this exercise some time ago and the EB2/EB3-I numbers reconcile to within about 0.2k cases over 14.3k total approvals for FY2015.

The exercise also suggested reductions in the EB3-I inventory related to porting in FY2015 was about 3.8k, split 25% for cases within the COD that EB3-I eventually reached for the FY (22DEC04) and 75% for cases beyond the COD that EB3-I eventually reached.

Spec and experts,

Now that 2016 turned out to be a damp squib, is there any hope from October onwards for EB2I ? I am EB2I with PD of April 17 2009 and got EAD in Sep 2014 and have been waiting since then. Any projections for hope for upcoming FY17 that starts from October 2016 ?

[Spectator]

Spec and experts,

Now that 2016 turned out to be a damp squib, is there any hope from October onwards for EB2I ? I am EB2I with PD of April 17 2009 and got EAD in Sep 2014 and have been waiting since then. Any projections for hope for upcoming FY17 that starts from October 2016 ?saager,

I am relatively pessimistic for at least the first half of FY2017 (who'd have thought that of me!). None of the issues affecting EB1, EB2-WW, EB4 or EB5 that made FY2016 so difficult will have changed substantially. **

PERM certifications have continued at a higher than normal rate to date. Given there is then a 6-12 month delay from certification to obtaining LPR, we might expect ROW approvals to remain high through at least H1 FY2017. The graph below might help to explain what I am saying, based on a 7 month delay e.g a PERM certification in July 2016 might be reflected as an I-485 approval in February 2017.

1060
As a side note, it's interesting that EB2-ROW approvals pretty much dried up on Trackitt after the August VB was published. That suggests the FAD was internally retrogressed immediately.

Eventually, the level of certifications should subside as the certification times reduce. When that happens, there will be a lag before the benefit is seen as lower EB2-ROW I-485 approvals.

In a FY where there is little spillover, it is really quite difficult for EB2-I to make meaningful progress. There is always going to be a certain amount of porting regardless of COD movement. In a low spillover FY, this represents a much higher % of available visas, which in turn hinders forward movement of the COD.

We need to see the next two USCIS inventories to assess the situation better.

** The EB5 Regional Center program is due to sunset at the end of FY2016. Since almost all EB5 visas are issued under this program, sunsetting it would potentially release a large number of EB5 visas. The sense of those speaking about the possibility, is that Congress will reauthorize the program for a short period while they pass tougher EB5 laws. Tougher laws (e.g. increasing the requirement from $1.0M and $0.5M to $1.2M and $0.8M might lower the number of future applications). However, there are already several years worth of pending applications, so no benefit would be derived in the immediate future.

My thoughts anyway - might not be worth much.

[Jagan01]

Spec,

As per the trackitt approvals data that you maintain, we are seeing lower number of approvals in all categories. What do you think about eB2ROW. They are currently utilizing less than what they did last year. If the trackitt to real world ratio is the same as last year, then we should get some SO from EB2ROW. Should't we ? Whats your take ?

[Spectator]

Spec,

As per the trackitt approvals data that you maintain, we are seeing lower number of approvals in all categories. What do you think about eB2ROW. They are currently utilizing less than what they did last year. If the trackitt to real world ratio is the same as last year, then we should get some SO from EB2ROW. Should't we ? Whats your take ?Jagan,

The fact that the EB2-ROW approvals dropped off immediately the August VB was announced is more indicative that actual approvals are higher than last year's Trackitt ratio would suggest. Therefore it's more likely that the Trackitt ratio is somewhat different this FY.

If spare visas were to be available to EB2-I in September, the FAD would have to move sufficiently far forward to use them. Everything CO has said to date does not suggest movement other than one week ahead of where EB3-I moves.

I wouldn't hold your breath waiting for miracles.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,
Everything CO has said to date does not suggest movement other than one week ahead of where EB3-I moves.
I have more faith in your trackitt data and lesser in CO's comments.

I am still hopeful that there might be some SO, or there will be an avalanche of EB2ROW approvals in September. I do not think that they have used up the annual quota for EB2ROW.

Thanks for your inputs.

[eb2visa]

Interesting report

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42048.pdf

[geterdone]

Interesting report

https://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R42048.pdf

Interesting indeed. Is this something they do every 2-3 years? Is this simply a waste of time?

[gten20]

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-september-2016.html

[jimmys]

I have more faith in your trackitt data and lesser in CO's comments.

I am still hopeful that there might be some SO, or there will be an avalanche of EB2ROW approvals in September. I do not think that they have used up the annual quota for EB2ROW.

Thanks for your inputs.

Unfortunately the CO was right. He always see the data that we don't(or assume). I think the accelerated EB2ROW PERM approvals are eating up EB2ROW numbers. Let's look forward FY '17.

[vedu]

Unfortunately the CO was right. He always see the data that we don't(or assume). I think the accelerated EB2ROW PERM approvals are eating up EB2ROW numbers. Let's look forward FY '17.

One good outcome of this VB is that EB3 and EB2 India will never ever see year 2004 again. The glass is always half full! Now let's see if we can bury year 2005 for good in FY' 17!

[qesehmk]

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-september-2016.html
This is a bad VB because it keeps EB1IC EB2ROW retrogressed which certainly is very harmful for any spillover prospects for EB2I in 2017.

[vyruss]

This is a bad VB because it keeps EB1IC EB2ROW retrogressed which certainly is very harmful for any spillover prospects for EB2I in 2017.

Wow..that is a real ominous prediction coming from you Q!

[Raj0687]

This is a bad VB because it keeps EB1IC EB2ROW retrogressed which certainly is very harmful for any spillover prospects for EB2I in 2017.

I think, we can stop dreaming about EB1 spillover for good.
In fact EB1IC inventory will keep piling up here on and we should see EB1IC retrogression even earlier (around April) in FY17.

[iatiam]

All,

It is now clear that there is no way to get out of this backlog mess unless we come together and take action. As many of you know, bill HR213 is about to be introduced in congress. It is the same as HR3012 which eliminates per country caps and brings fairness to the immigration process. There is a lot of momentum for this bill. If you want to be part of these advocacy efforts please send me a PM and I will be able to connect you with the right people.

Lets get this done!

Iatiam

[qesehmk]

I think, we can stop dreaming about EB1 spillover for good.
In fact EB1IC inventory will keep piling up here on and we should see EB1IC retrogression even earlier (around April) in FY17.
Do not disagree at all.

[sandykolu]

Do not disagree at all.

Apart from no spillovers from EB1, if you also consider the Eb3--> EB2 porting, there will be very few visa's for the original eb2 filers. No way out of this queue without a reform.

[neduguy]

Recent DOL statistics confirm 26% increase in PERM Filings.. would this affect I140 approval? In turn helping EB2IC/3IC approvals.

https://www.murthy.com/2016/08/17/increase-in-perm-labor-certifications-filings/

[EB3Iwaiting]

Spec, YT, Q and other gurus,

This is the latest we got from AILA check-in with CO:

EB-2 and EB-3. Presently, the EB-2 Worldwide final action date lags behind EB-3 Worldwide, but this should not create the same EB-3 downgrade phenomenon we have witnessed in recent years in the China EB categories. According to Charlie, members should expect EB-2 Worldwide to become current again in October. Despite the uncharacteristically low demand in EB-3 Worldwide, members should not expect it to become current. Charlie is concerned that there is demand in this category that has not yet materialized.

In October, EB-2 India will likely move to a date in early 2007. Slow movements of a few weeks at a time are anticipated for EB-3 India, which is likely to remain at a 2005 date in October. EB-3 India is the last category in which Charlie still has strong visibility (from the summer 2007 adjustment of status filings) into pre-adjudicated demand. As a result, there has not been any erratic movement in the final action date for this category in recent years.

The positive that I see is that time EB3I is not expected to retrogress, will continue to move forward and he admitted this is the category he has best visibility. It only retrogressed last time because of his mistake. Took almost the whole year to recover.

Pending inventory as well as EB2ROW retrogressed dates show that EB2ROW has more demand than EB3ROW. If there is no vertical spillover expected from EB1, and both categories getting fresh set of quotas in October, how is EB2ROW expected to be current and not EB3ROW? Even Charlie's sentence says "despite the uncharacteristically low demand in EB3ROW"...he will not make it current and is concerned that there is demand in this category that has not yet materialized. I noticed that since July 2016 and till mid-August 2016, PERM certifications have slightly dropped off and the overall ROW % has dropped too.

The July inventory should give us a good idea on pending EB2ROW vs. EB3ROW demand. But what is it that I am missing that CO still expects EB3ROW high demand to "materialize"?

[Spectator]

Notes on the AILA meeting from ImmigrationGirl (http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-in-the-next-fiscal-year-starting-october-1-2016/).



What to Expect in the Visa Bulletin in the next Fiscal Year starting October 1, 2016

By ImmigrationGirl August 18, 2016

The Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, Charles Oppenheim, at the Department of State recently provided some insight to the American Immigration Lawyers Association regarding potential priority dates for the October visa bulletin as we move into the next Fiscal Year.

EB-2 Worldwide is expected to become current again in October. Despite the uncharacteristically low demand in EB-3 Worldwide is not expected to become current because there is a concern that demand in this category that has not yet materialized.

In October, EB-2 China is expected to advance to a date in late 2011 or early 2012. EB-3 China’s final action date is expected to reach late 2012 or early 2013. This means that we likely see the EB-3 downgrade phenomenon again next fiscal year, at least until the increase in EB-3 China demand generated by the downgrades levels out demand between the two categories.

In October, EB-2 India will likely move to a date in early 2007. Slow movements of a few weeks at a time are anticipated for EB-3 India, which is likely to remain at a 2005 date in October. EB-3 India is the last category in which the Visa Chief has some visibility from the summer 2007 adjustment of status filings. This means that any movement in this category will be more steady and less erratic compared to others.

No predictions are available at this time as to where EB-5 China dates will fall in the next fiscal year. We may have better information by late September to mid-October.

It is expected that EB-1 India and EB-1 China will become current again in October.

Family-Based Projections. We expect movements into the next fiscal year to remain relatively steady. The Administration’s Visa Modernization Proposal compels the State Department to advance the dates as aggressively as possible in the first three quarters of the fiscal year. While doing so helps to ensure that number use is maximized, it also results in fewer numbers being available for use in the final quarter, which can cause retrogression at the end of a fiscal year.

Filing Dates. Most importantly, as we approach the one year anniversary of the new Visa Bulletin format, we do not have any predictions from the visa chief in terms of “filing dates” as he has not yet met with the CIS Ombudsman’s Office.

I’ll post updates whenever I receive them!

[Spectator]

Spec, YT, Q and other gurus,

The positive that I see is that time EB3I is not expected to retrogress, will continue to move forward and he admitted this is the category he has best visibility. It only retrogressed last time because of his mistake. Took almost the whole year to recover.

Pending inventory as well as EB2ROW retrogressed dates show that EB2ROW has more demand than EB3ROW. If there is no vertical spillover expected from EB1, and both categories getting fresh set of quotas in October, how is EB2ROW expected to be current and not EB3ROW? Even Charlie's sentence says "despite the uncharacteristically low demand in EB3ROW"...he will not make it current and is concerned that there is demand in this category that has not yet materialized. I noticed that since July 2016 and till mid-August 2016, PERM certifications have slightly dropped off and the overall ROW % has dropped too.

The July inventory should give us a good idea on pending EB2ROW vs. EB3ROW demand. But what is it that I am missing that CO still expects EB3ROW high demand to "materialize"?EB3Iwaiting,

Given EB3-ROW is so close to being Current, I don't think it makes any difference. IMO CO should just make it Current and be done with it. He can make an adjustment later if need be and would be left with a better idea of actual pending demand at that point.

So, why won't he. I'd speculate that the lag time from a PERM certification to I-485 submission and approval is a few months longer than it is for EB2-ROW. EB3-ROW monthly approvals on Trackitt have started to increase significantly in the last few months. EB3 may have just reached the beginning of the effect of increased PERM certifications. If so, I-485 approvals for EB3-ROW will remain at an elevated level for the majority of FY2017.

It remains to be seen whether ROW certifications dip and whether it is sustained - my figures still show them at a significantly higher level than the previous period that would have resulted in I-485 approvals. Even if they dip now, the effect on I-485 approvals won't be seen until well into FY2017. There's also the unresolved question of whether a higher % of PERM for ROW are now (and have been) submitted for EB3 positions, whether the level of CP for EB3-ROW has changed and whether a higher number of EB3-EW are approved for ROW.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Thanks for the clear explanation Spec. I agree that even if we see a dip in EB3ROW PERM certifications now, EB3I will only see the effect 6-7 months later because of the lag time between PERM approvals and I-485 approvals.


I'd speculate that the lag time from a PERM certification to I-485 submission and approval is a few months longer than it is for EB2-ROW.

This is interesting. I never thought it that way. Why is that?

[gcq]

From CO's comment for EB3-ROW vs EB3-India he seems to be in his biased mode where he is expecting some EB3-ROW applications to hit his demand in future - a pure speculation. He is determined to keep EB3-India severely backlogged because of his bias. As we get into October, it is time to stop his bias and make EB3-ROW current. For him the "demand" is when EB3-ROW I-485 or equivalent is filed. Speculating PERM certification is none of his business. As nobody can determine the EB3-ROW component in perm certifications, all he is doing is speculating to favor his pet category EB3-ROW.

Eb3-India folks, it is time for us to wake up and do something about this. Country cap itself is discriminatory rule. On top of that we should not allow CO to discriminate against us. If someone is willing to join the effort I am willing to join this though I got my GC 1 year back.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Spec pointed out before that EB3ROW has itself faced discrimination because they have not been allocated their full quota for many years. This would have made them become "C" at least 1.5 years before and in turn would have given EB3Is SO much earlier. He seems to discriminate against EB3s in general. Not as important as EB2 in his mind, may be. Even last year, he gave EB2Is too many visas too early and EB3Is paid the price. If not for CO's mistake, EB3I would have crossed the March 2005 hump this year itself and could have gone into 2006.

[gcq]

Spec pointed out before that EB3ROW has itself faced discrimination because they have not been allocated their full quota for many years. This would have made them become "C" at least 1.5 years before and in turn would have given EB3Is SO much earlier. He seems to discriminate against EB3s in general. Not as important as EB2 in his mind, may be. Even last year, he gave EB2Is too many visas too early and EB3Is paid the price. If not for CO's mistake, EB3I would have crossed the March 2005 hump this year itself and could have gone into 2006.

Again that is CO's problem. It is one more proof that CO's decision making is wrong. Let EB3-ROW fight for it if they have been discriminated. Also remember EB3-ROW dates are in 2016 not 2005 like India. EB3-India is 11 years backlogged. Regardless there is no justification for him not to make EB3-ROW current. His only intention is to stop EB3-India from getting fall across visas.

[bornflirt]

Gurus, any thoughts on this, how far the filing dates can move in the next bulletin?

08/24/2016: USCIS "May" Consider Using "Filing Date Chart" in October 2016?

Wow, according to the AILA, at one of the AILA conference in 2016, a USCIS official stated that the USCIS "may" consider using "Filing Date" chart for the purpose of filing of new I-485 applications in October 2016. Caveat: Reportedly this was neither a prediction nor decision of the USCIS. Accordingly, there is no guarantee that, even though the State Department's Visa Bulletin moves ahead for a limited period of time, the USCIS may accept large number of I-485 applications based on the "Filing Date" chart in October, if and only if this information turns into a reality. Dream on, the prospective I-485 filers in October!

Source: http://www.immigration-law.com/

[neduguy]

This is from ImmigrationGirl


August 24, 2016
Any update on the Filing Dates for Oct 2016 ?

Reply

ImmigrationGirl
August 24, 2016
Nothing from Department of State, BUT, there was some recent hinting by AILA that suggested USCIS may be considering allowing both employment- and family-based applicants to use the “Filing Date” chart only for the month of October. Nothing official so we’ll have to wait and see what happens.

[anuprab]

This is from ImmigrationGirl


August 24, 2016
Any update on the Filing Dates for Oct 2016 ?

Reply

ImmigrationGirl
August 24, 2016
Nothing from Department of State, BUT, there was some recent hinting by AILA that suggested USCIS may be considering allowing both employment- and family-based applicants to use the “Filing Date” chart only for the month of October. Nothing official so we’ll have to wait and see what happens.

whats the point when those dates are in 2009 and 2005 for EB2 and EB3 India respectively!!!

[EB3Iwaiting]

whats the point when those dates are in 2009 and 2005 for EB2 and EB3 India respectively!!!

Hardly helps EB2I as there would be very few if at all first time filers. Will help the new porters from EB3I if USCIS accepts 2009 EB2I dates.

[anuprab]

Hardly helps EB2I as there would be very few if at all first time filers. Will help the new porters from EB3I if USCIS accepts 2009 EB2I dates.

beyond pathetic....it will make sense only if they move it post those dates, if they move that is..

[neduguy]

Usually when will the latest pending 485 inventory be released ?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Usually when will the latest pending 485 inventory be released ?

Think last year it came out around mid-August, 12th August I think. No sign of it yet this year.

[nbk1976]

Think last year it came out around mid-August, 12th August I think. No sign of it yet this year.

Didn't it come out on 1 April this year? WhereIsMyGC and TrackItt have been using data from April 2016.

[Suva2001]

It comes out 4 times a year for Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct. People are talking about July one.

Thanks

[EB2Dec2008]

Hey Spec/Q

I am in a peculiar situation and would need your advise on this. I am currently in EB2 - Priority Date Dec'2008. I missed the boat twice and want to take advantage of F2A. My husband has a greencard and would want to file I-130 and 485 under F2A.

1. Can i have 2 pending 485 applications one under Employment and one under Family?
2. Can we send the application to selected service centers where I-130 application processing times are faster?
3. i-130 or I-485 can i file these in premium processing?
4. How long would it take for F2A application to be approved? i am currently eligible to file I-485 application as well without any wait.
5. can i file I-130 and I-485 application at same time?

[qesehmk]

My answers inline EB2D. Good luck!


Hey Spec/Q

I am in a peculiar situation and would need your advise on this. I am currently in EB2 - Priority Date Dec'2008. I missed the boat twice and want to take advantage of F2A. My husband has a greencard and would want to file I-130 and 485 under F2A.

1. Can i have 2 pending 485 applications one under Employment and one under Family? Absolutely YES.
2. Can we send the application to selected service centers where I-130 application processing times are faster? I think not.
3. i-130 or I-485 can i file these in premium processing? I think not.
4. How long would it take for F2A application to be approved? i am currently eligible to file I-485 application as well without any wait. Whatever the processing time is. Generally 4-8 months.
5. can i file I-130 and I-485 application at same time? Absolutely yes.

[EB2Dec2008]

thanks a lot Spec.

what are the chances that Dec 2008 would become current in FY2017?

[EB2Dec2008]

Spec,
One last question: To file for F2A do I need an attorney/lawyer to represent the case

[Jagan01]

OCT VB published https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-october-2016.html

[EB3Iwaiting]

OCT VB published https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-october-2016.html

Failing to understand that if pending inventory of EB2ROW is higher than EB3ROW, how is EB3ROW not current but EB2ROW is? CO still expecting high EB3ROW to come in? He has been expecting it for the last 1 year.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Failing to understand that if pending inventory of EB2ROW is higher than EB3ROW, how is EB3ROW not current but EB2ROW is? CO still expecting high EB3ROW to come in? He has been expecting it for the last 1 year.

My friend, I have given up trying to understand and make sense of it. Being a physician, I am not going to qualify for EB1C. I don't have lot of research papers and I am not working in an academic hospital so I don't qualify for EB1A or EB1B. I am either going to keep waiting in EB2 for long period or earn enough money to file under EB5 regional center (half a million) or worst case scenario, move back to India. Current scenario is not going to change until Immigration Reform happens, comprehensive or piecemeal and there is something in it hopefully for backlogged people when it happens.

On the other hand, I think if our backlogged community wants something done faster, the only way I see it happening is through the way of lobbying. Unfortunately, ** has totally ruined the experience of many like us who could have been potential long term donors for the group. If I am donating to a group, the least I expect is that the group is handling my inquiries appropriately and transparently.

I recently met my wife's cousin. He was laid off during 2008 recession but had a GC at that time. Instead of starting another job, he started a motel business with his friends. He is reasonably successful at this time and doing well in his business. He told me that AHOA (American Hotel Owners Association) which he is a member of, recently started asking its members to pay $500 per year. It has 15,000 registered members (95% Gujaratis and out of those 95%, 99% are Patels) and more are joining in. That gives them $7.5 million. With all that money, they have now hired a lobbying firm on capitol hill to lobby and get those things done what they want. His personal experience was that if you can write a check, then you can get the access and get things done. He got access to Councilman's and Mayor's cellphone by writing a $5000 check and arranging a fundraiser at his motel where he raised $20,000. He asked me, why don't we all backlogged Indians and Chinese and other backlogged communities do something similar?

Although, I found nothing new in what he was telling me, I kind of thought about ** at that time and how bad people's experience has been with them. I strongly feel that if some dedicated souls take the initiative to spend time on capitol hill (not **) and come up with a new organization starting something similar, I am sure many backlogged people will make financial contributions as long as the organization remains loyal to its base and remains transparent, and people know what organization is doing with their money. Problem with ** is a problem of trustworthiness. If they would do things differently, many people would contribute.

[anuprab]

Failing to understand that if pending inventory of EB2ROW is higher than EB3ROW, how is EB3ROW not current but EB2ROW is? CO still expecting high EB3ROW to come in? He has been expecting it for the last 1 year.

yeah not sure why is he expecting demand from EB3RoW to surge and not willing to give the benefit of doubt to heavily backlogged EB3I.....there are still real people waiting in this line although many might have become zombies by now :(

[smuggymba]

Impressive work by the motel association no doubt.

When I talk to my desi friends on similar lines of donating money; they're not even willing to donate 5 dollars. Some are not even willing to go to a politicians office which doesn't cost anything. So, people are themselves responsible for their fate. That's where ****'s frustration is coming from - my exp was ok since I didn't ask or expect, I just gave money.

PS: I have donated around 500 to ** since they're the only one's who are getting off their butt and doing something. Our forum owner even sensors the name of **, so yes they must have rubbed ppl the wrong way, no doubt.




My friend, I have given up trying to understand and make sense of it. Being a physician, I am not going to qualify for EB1C. I don't have lot of research papers and I am not working in an academic hospital so I don't qualify for EB1A or EB1B. I am either going to keep waiting in EB2 for long period or earn enough money to file under EB5 regional center (half a million) or worst case scenario, move back to India. Current scenario is not going to change until Immigration Reform happens, comprehensive or piecemeal and there is something in it hopefully for backlogged people when it happens.

On the other hand, I think if our backlogged community wants something done faster, the only way I see it happening is through the way of lobbying. Unfortunately, ** has totally ruined the experience of many like us who could have been potential long term donors for the group. If I am donating to a group, the least I expect is that the group is handling my inquiries appropriately and transparently.

I recently met my wife's cousin. He was laid off during 2008 recession but had a GC at that time. Instead of starting another job, he started a motel business with his friends. He is reasonably successful at this time and doing well in his business. He told me that AHOA (American Hotel Owners Association) which he is a member of, recently started asking its members to pay $500 per year. It has 15,000 registered members (95% Gujaratis and out of those 95%, 99% are Patels) and more are joining in. That gives them $7.5 million. With all that money, they have now hired a lobbying firm on capitol hill to lobby and get those things done what they want. His personal experience was that if you can write a check, then you can get the access and get things done. He got access to Councilman's and Mayor's cellphone by writing a $5000 check and arranging a fundraiser at his motel where he raised $20,000. He asked me, why don't we all backlogged Indians and Chinese and other backlogged communities do something similar?

Although, I found nothing new in what he was telling me, I kind of thought about ** at that time and how bad people's experience has been with them. I strongly feel that if some dedicated souls take the initiative to spend time on capitol hill (not **) and come up with a new organization starting something similar, I am sure many backlogged people will make financial contributions as long as the organization remains loyal to its base and remains transparent, and people know what organization is doing with their money. Problem with ** is a problem of trustworthiness. If they would do things differently, many people would contribute.

[vedu]

I don't think October Visa bulletin is completely gloom and doom scenario for both EB2I and EB3I. Last year, October bulletin opened with EB3I in March 2004 and EB2I in May 2005. So, we have a solid 1 year progress for EB3I and 1.5 years progress for EB2I on YOY basis.

[GCwaiting]

YT, spec ... any of Gurus here...
CO has said for EB3I the dates will move upto 1 week each time. Now we are on 1st March. When in your opinion will March2005 be cleared.
It has been a very very long & hard wait.... Things are getting pretty tough

[gcq]

YT, spec ... any of Gurus here...
CO has said for EB3I the dates will move upto 1 week each time. Now we are on 1st March. When in your opinion will March2005 be cleared.
It has been a very very long & hard wait.... Things are getting pretty tough
October VB moved 2 weeks for EB3-I. So if we assume a 2 week movement every bulletin, we should be in Aug 2005 by Sep 2017 even with no FA. With FA it should be better.

[asaxena2]

October VB moved 2 weeks for EB3-I. So if we assume a 2 week movement every bulletin, we should be in Aug 2005 by Sep 2017 even with no FA. With FA it should be better.

--------------------------------------
Employment Third:
India: Up to one week.



The above projections for the Family
and Employment categories indicate what is likely to
happen on a monthly basis through January based on current applicant demand patterns."


November 2016 Visa Bulletin---8th March 2005
December 2016 Visa Bulletin---15 March 2005
January 2017 Visa Bulletin-- 22 March 2005
February 2017 Visa bulletin -- 1 april 2005

than stop to clear , March 2005

[vishnu]

gurus - my I-140 was approved (EB1-A) last week, so will file 485 soon...

have a question - I know the answers to this are conflicted - but I am curious to know what your lawyers have said on this...

my wife is on h4 and works on the h4-ead... if she (re)enters the US on the H4 but uses the 485ead to work, does he h4 status get invalidated?

[Suva2001]

gurus - my I-140 was approved (EB1-A) last week, so will file 485 soon...

have a question - I know the answers to this are conflicted - but I am curious to know what your lawyers have said on this...

my wife is on h4 and works on the h4-ead... if she (re)enters the US on the H4 but uses the 485ead to work, does he h4 status get invalidated?

Once 485EAD is used then H4 would be invalidated. His/Her status would changed to "Adjustee".

Thanks

[BBear123]

As someone who waited way too long to do this.. Just do it!

1. Can i have 2 pending 485 applications one under Employment and one under Family?
Yes
2. Can we send the application to selected service centers where I-130 application processing times are faster?
You file to a lockbox and ASC is geo restricted to where you live.

3. i-130 or I-485 can i file these in premium processing?
No
4. How long would it take for F2A application to be approved? i am currently eligible to file I-485 application as well without any wait.
5. can i file I-130 and I-485 application at same time?
Since you are current yes


Hey Spec/Q

I am in a peculiar situation and would need your advise on this. I am currently in EB2 - Priority Date Dec'2008. I missed the boat twice and want to take advantage of F2A. My husband has a greencard and would want to file I-130 and 485 under F2A.

1. Can i have 2 pending 485 applications one under Employment and one under Family?
2. Can we send the application to selected service centers where I-130 application processing times are faster?
3. i-130 or I-485 can i file these in premium processing?
4. How long would it take for F2A application to be approved? i am currently eligible to file I-485 application as well without any wait.
5. can i file I-130 and I-485 application at same time?

[gcforver]

Please can you share more details about EB5 regional center (half a million) programs, What is the success rate for GC and security of money

[Spectator]

USCIS have updated the Immigration and Citizenship Data (https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data) with Q3 figures.

In the All Forms data, EB I-485 approvals are shown as 89,608 for YTD. That is bang on target for 140k, assuming 15% additional CP cases and prorated for the full FY.

[anuprab]

USCIS have updated the Immigration and Citizenship Data (https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data) with Q3 figures.

In the All Forms data, EB I-485 approvals are shown as 89,608 for YTD. That is bang on target for 140k, assuming 15% additional CP cases and prorated for the full FY.

which means no visas are being wasted?

whats with the July inventory report..isnt out yet!

[EB3Iwaiting]

whats with the July inventory report..isnt out yet!

They are also waiting for the EB3ROW demand to show up! :)

[anuprab]

They are also waiting for the EB3ROW demand to show up! :)

so EB3I can wait for 12+ years but its very important to dole out greencards to RoW people who have been waiting for 12+ months I guess...

[EB3Iwaiting]

so EB3I can wait for 12+ years but its very important to dole out greencards to RoW people who have been waiting for 12+ months I guess...

All in the name of diversity my friend. EB GCs are only 14% of the annual quota and they want diversity in it too. Skills are only needed for pass the first 2 stages. After that, it all depends on where you are born. Even though their FB quota (which is a lot higher than EB quota) is dependent on diversity and they have a separate diversity quota for the very reason of promoting diversity. Yet, they need it in EB quotas too. It does not matter to them that they already live here on non immigrant visas or on EAD/AP. As long they do not count as LPRs or citizens, it does not count.

That is the law. We can only try to change it.

[tatikonda]

Gurus,

Sorry to post in wrong group. please move this later.
I am frustrated with waiting for GC.

I need some clarification regarding H1-B Transfer to new employer.

I have approved I-140 from my present employer and applying for 3 years extension but meanwhile I got a good offer from other employer.
If I want to, can my new employer file for H1b extension and apply for 3 years extension based on my current approved I-140.

Please advise.

Regards
tatikonda

[karukon]

YES, as long as your current 140 dont get revoked.

[EB2IndSep09]

OCT VB published https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-october-2016.html

Not sure if this topic has been discussed on the forum yet "DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS" has been retrogressed for EB2 India to 22-Apr-2009, EB2- China to 01-Mar-2013, EB3 - China to 01-May-2014 and no change to EB3 India-stayed at 01-Jul-2005.

So are they going to test the waters again? by making all to use the Dates for Filing instead of Dates for Final Action? Gurus plz chime in.

[GCwaiting]

YT, Spec & other Gurus here
My PD is last week of Mar 2005 EB3I.
When do you think I will be current.
How do you feel will EB3I move in the next couple of months?

[asaxena2]

YT, Spec & other Gurus here
My PD is last week of Mar 2005 EB3I.
When do you think I will be current.
How do you feel will EB3I move in the next couple of months?
--------------------------------------------------------

Till January 2017 , it is a week of movement. After that can't say


November 2016 Visa Bulletin ---8 Mar 2005
December 2016 Visa Bulletin-- 15 Mar 2005
January 2017 Visa Bulletin--- 22 Mar 2005

[kd2008]

https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletin-oct-16

USCIS will accept EB2-I I-485 applications till Apr 2009.

I hope it moves past Apr 2010 soon.

[GCwaiting]

FY 2016 has ended.

Did not see this message anywhere ..... that employment based visas for this year are exhausted.
Some people are still reporting approvals !!
485 July inventory also not released !!

What do gurus here see of this ... what is your interpretation??

[Prabhas]

Guys!

I just wanted to vent out my frustration and this is one of the place where I can find some like-minded people. :)

I was on a good trip to Smoky Mountains this weekend as my kids had a fall recess and we were joined by few other family friends. One of the family recently got greened and they had to go through a lot of hurdles porting from EB3 to EB2 but finally it was a story that ended well.

I was very happy for this guy and congratulated him and as we spoke the topic went on to the current backlogs and extreme wait times that India is currently facing. I went on to say that there should be a congressional change to the current law, remove the existing per country limits, stop calculating dependents towards the GC count, recapture the lost visas etc and surprisingly this guy took a huge exception on these and he said the per country limits should NOT be removed because all other countries will be back logged if the govt makes this change and so instead all the Indians and Chinese waiting in this back log should be given I-140/EAD and they have to wait for their turn.

I debated with him and said that resolves only part of the problem and one should really think about the extreme difficulties people waiting for GC will have to go through, especially their kids who age out due to this non-functional system in place. I also argued that the current system was originally set for the Family based immigration and they just passed on the same rules to EB category and no serious thought was given to it. Also we are not trying to jam the system right away but do it in such a way that 15% of the visas will be allocated to the extremely backlogged countries first and then eventually make the system FIFO. At one point this guy said USA laws are very well set and they don’t discriminate at all and this country limit is set to give other countries a fair chance and diversity in immigration. He also went on say ‘ If the per country limits are removed there will be one other country but only India who will be jamming these categories and USA will soon be overcrowded with Indians’. His tone really sounded as if his skin turned ‘non-Indian’ the moment he got his Green-card. At that point I felt like he should have really been denied a GC from eb2 and made to wait in EB3 (I empathize with EB3 folks) to really feel the struggle from a GC wait. He didn’t seem to really understand the pain he went through during his porting when he really vented out his frustration on various occasions.

I was really at loss for words when this guy started talking against these initiatives and honestly it made me feel that our community is at a serious identity crisis.

So guys my question is – Are we really taking away the diversity of the EB category by this push to remove country limits? I don’t think so because H1-B is a dual intent visa and DOS/USCIS knows 90% of the visas come from India and even if 30% of them decide to stay back that will clog the EB category. They should seriously do something about it.This is really causing a divide within ourselves. Also the immigration influx we are seeing now from Asia is far less than the mass immigration that occurred during the 1930-1970s from Europe. Folks who have a similar impression as my friend , hope they realize it.

V

[axecapone]

Guys!

I just wanted to vent out my frustration and this is one of the place where I can find some like-minded people. :)

I was on a good trip to Smoky Mountains this weekend as my kids had a fall recess and we were joined by few other family friends. One of the family recently got greened and they had to go through a lot of hurdles porting from EB3 to EB2 but finally it was a story that ended well.

I was very happy for this guy and congratulated him and as we spoke the topic went on to the current backlogs and extreme wait times that India is currently facing. I went on to say that there should be a congressional change to the current law, remove the existing per country limits, stop calculating dependents towards the GC count, recapture the lost visas etc and surprisingly this guy took a huge exception on these and he said the per country limits should NOT be removed because all other countries will be back logged if the govt makes this change and so instead all the Indians and Chinese waiting in this back log should be given I-140/EAD and they have to wait for their turn.

I debated with him and said that resolves only part of the problem and one should really think about the extreme difficulties people waiting for GC will have to go through, especially their kids who age out due to this non-functional system in place. I also argued that the current system was originally set for the Family based immigration and they just passed on the same rules to EB category and no serious thought was given to it. Also we are not trying to jam the system right away but do it in such a way that 15% of the visas will be allocated to the extremely backlogged countries first and then eventually make the system FIFO. At one point this guy said USA laws are very well set and they don’t discriminate at all and this country limit is set to give other countries a fair chance and diversity in immigration. He also went on say ‘ If the per country limits are removed there will be one other country but only India who will be jamming these categories and USA will soon be overcrowded with Indians’. His tone really sounded as if his skin turned ‘non-Indian’ the moment he got his Green-card. At that point I felt like he should have really been denied a GC from eb2 and made to wait in EB3 (I empathize with EB3 folks) to really feel the struggle from a GC wait. He didn’t seem to really understand the pain he went through during his porting when he really vented out his frustration on various occasions.

I was really at loss for words when this guy started talking against these initiatives and honestly it made me feel that our community is at a serious identity crisis.

So guys my question is – Are we really taking away the diversity of the EB category by this push to remove country limits? I don’t think so because H1-B is a dual intent visa and DOS/USCIS knows 90% of the visas come from India and even if 30% of them decide to stay back that will clog the EB category. They should seriously do something about it.This is really causing a divide within ourselves. Also the immigration influx we are seeing now from Asia is far less than the mass immigration that occurred during the 1930-1970s from Europe. Folks who have a similar impression as my friend , hope they realize it.

V

This is your typical "I am on the other side now I don't care for others" mentality that specifically Indians seem to suffer from. I know plenty of people who stress about the stupidity of the laws in place while they are in line but once they get their greencard, they are all for shutting down every single form of immigration in this country.

This lack of gratitude and empathy post GC annoys me to no end. Next time when another person gets his GC, just congratulate him and hang up the phone.

[4WatItsWorth]

Spec, Q, anyone who can make sense of this puzzle,
What does the 2017 outlook look like? After 10 years being on H1-B, I am really frustrated. Will my PD of 30Oct2009 ever see day light?

I feel like I gave this country too much time... Should have called it a day and headed elsewhere much earlier when I could but now it is like holding stocks in a bear market in which you have invested all your life's savings.

[Raj0687]

I was talking to this person from EB2I, pd late 2009 and has EAD since 2012, at times when the filing date was first introduced.
He doesn't like that rule and don't want to allow filing AOS when there are no sufficient visas left. He argues that waiting on EAD is pain, already enough people waiting on EAD why new and it will increase the rate of porting etc.
Then the conversation was over, we left.

Later it was running thru my mind quiet some time, it then appeared to me that, its not just people who got GC doesn't like those waiting.
Its the every level up doesn't like all the levels below.

citizen doesn't like GC, GC doesn't like EAD, EAD doesn't like H1, H1 doesn't like the ones trying to come here.

[EB3Iwaiting]

citizen doesn't like GC, GC doesn't like EAD, EAD doesn't like H1, H1 doesn't like the ones trying to come here.

You can add EB2s don't like EB3s porting and EB1Cs. EB3s do not like the change in spillover law. Also, many H1Bs still oppose H4 EAD as they think that more IT professionals will flood the market and lower their wages. They are no different from the SaveJobsUSA people who filed a lawsuit against H4 EAD.

It is hard enough to bring about reform even with a united front. With no unity, no wonder we are in this mess with no light at the end of the tunnel.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Please do not generalize, only the insecure ones do not like the progress of other people, they are enough talented and kind Indians who are willing to help. On this forum, Q & Spec are prime examples.
I know there is lot of frustration out there because on non-movement, but I think this is not the right forum to vent it out. This is where people ask for help and suggestions. I have changed my thinking about immigration by following this forum and moving on with my life and career. Good luck to all.

[qesehmk]

Prabhas - you are 100% right and the other guy is 100% wrong and selfish. Forget him. He is not worth your time.
Guys!

I just wanted to vent out my frustration and this is one of the place where I can find some like-minded people. :)

I was on a good trip to Smoky Mountains this weekend as my kids had a fall recess and we were joined by few other family friends. One of the family recently got greened and they had to go through a lot of hurdles porting from EB3 to EB2 but finally it was a story that ended well.

I was very happy for this guy and congratulated him and as we spoke the topic went on to the current backlogs and extreme wait times that India is currently facing. I went on to say that there should be a congressional change to the current law, remove the existing per country limits, stop calculating dependents towards the GC count, recapture the lost visas etc and surprisingly this guy took a huge exception on these and he said the per country limits should NOT be removed because all other countries will be back logged if the govt makes this change and so instead all the Indians and Chinese waiting in this back log should be given I-140/EAD and they have to wait for their turn.

I debated with him and said that resolves only part of the problem and one should really think about the extreme difficulties people waiting for GC will have to go through, especially their kids who age out due to this non-functional system in place. I also argued that the current system was originally set for the Family based immigration and they just passed on the same rules to EB category and no serious thought was given to it. Also we are not trying to jam the system right away but do it in such a way that 15% of the visas will be allocated to the extremely backlogged countries first and then eventually make the system FIFO. At one point this guy said USA laws are very well set and they don’t discriminate at all and this country limit is set to give other countries a fair chance and diversity in immigration. He also went on say ‘ If the per country limits are removed there will be one other country but only India who will be jamming these categories and USA will soon be overcrowded with Indians’. His tone really sounded as if his skin turned ‘non-Indian’ the moment he got his Green-card. At that point I felt like he should have really been denied a GC from eb2 and made to wait in EB3 (I empathize with EB3 folks) to really feel the struggle from a GC wait. He didn’t seem to really understand the pain he went through during his porting when he really vented out his frustration on various occasions.

I was really at loss for words when this guy started talking against these initiatives and honestly it made me feel that our community is at a serious identity crisis.

So guys my question is – Are we really taking away the diversity of the EB category by this push to remove country limits? I don’t think so because H1-B is a dual intent visa and DOS/USCIS knows 90% of the visas come from India and even if 30% of them decide to stay back that will clog the EB category. They should seriously do something about it.This is really causing a divide within ourselves. Also the immigration influx we are seeing now from Asia is far less than the mass immigration that occurred during the 1930-1970s from Europe. Folks who have a similar impression as my friend , hope they realize it.

V

Raj - that's actually a very good observation. Unfortunately it is true but the only way to change this is start with "ME"! That's all you and I can do.

I was talking to this person from EB2I, pd late 2009 and has EAD since 2012, at times when the filing date was first introduced.
He doesn't like that rule and don't want to allow filing AOS when there are no sufficient visas left. He argues that waiting on EAD is pain, already enough people waiting on EAD why new and it will increase the rate of porting etc.
Then the conversation was over, we left.

Later it was running thru my mind quiet some time, it then appeared to me that, its not just people who got GC doesn't like those waiting.
Its the every level up doesn't like all the levels below.

citizen doesn't like GC, GC doesn't like EAD, EAD doesn't like H1, H1 doesn't like the ones trying to come here.


I have changed my thinking about immigration by following this forum and moving on with my life and career. Good luck to all.
Shekhar - you did the right thing. 10 years is huge amount of time in our lives. The most beautiful time when our children are growing up ... we have all the energy .. come 40 the children will be near high school age .. the health numbers start moving .. parents not doing too well ... god forbid there are worse things too. So don't let the GC ruin your life. I have come to the conclusion that anybody over 30 years and just starting GC in EB23 India category is in a lot of pain and wait that it is not going to be worth it at the end of the day. Unfortunately all this advocacy is proven BS (just as I have always been predicting). The only way forward is a lawsuit. But even the intelligent people don't seem to get it.

Anyway ... that is my Wednesday afternoon rant.

[nbk1976]

Prabhas - you are 100% right and the other guy is 100% wrong and selfish. Forget him. He is not worth your time.

Raj - that's actually a very good observation. Unfortunately it is true but the only way to change this is start with "ME"! That's all you and I can do.



Shekhar - you did the right thing. 10 years is huge amount of time in our lives. The most beautiful time when our children are growing up ... we have all the energy .. come 40 the children will be near high school age .. the health numbers start moving .. parents not doing too well ... god forbid there are worse things too. So don't let the GC ruin your life. I have come to the conclusion that anybody over 30 years and just starting GC in EB23 India category is in a lot of pain and wait that it is not going to be worth it at the end of the day. Unfortunately all this advocacy is proven BS (just as I have always been predicting). The only way forward is a lawsuit. But even the intelligent people don't seem to get it.

Anyway ... that is my Wednesday afternoon rant.

When the I-140 (Immigrant Petition) is approved, it should have some meaning. Never in any country do they approve your immigration petition and refuse to give you even basic benefits of being an immigrant--right to work. The whole "adjustment of status" is absolute bureaucratic nonsense. A visa number should be assigned as soon as the I-140 is approved. If no visa number is available, why even "approve" it? This three-tiered system (PERM/I-140/I-485) is just bullshit.

The theoretical purpose of EB immigration is to allow foreign workers with the right skills that are in short supply to take up jobs. If most of those skills seems to come from country A or B how does it matter? There is no reason why diversity should be part of any EB immigration. In any case, your relative is either uninformed or as not given much thought to about these things.

[EB3Iwaiting]

When the I-140 (Immigrant Petition) is approved, it should have some meaning. Never in any country do they approve your immigration petition and refuse to give you even basic benefits of being an immigrant--right to work. The whole "adjustment of status" is absolute bureaucratic nonsense. A visa number should be assigned as soon as the I-140 is approved. If no visa number is available, why even "approve" it? This three-tiered system (PERM/I-140/I-485) is just bullshit.

The theoretical purpose of EB immigration is to allow foreign workers with the right skills that are in short supply to take up jobs. If most of those skills seems to come from country A or B how does it matter? There is no reason why diversity should be part of any EB immigration. In any case, your relative is either uninformed or as not given much thought to about these things.

I think there are two points that most people miss in this conversation when they say "If country cap goes away, Indians will fill up this country and this will become another India".

One - If someone has PERM and I-140 approved, they have already proven that no American was found to do their job and the company needs their skills and can pay the salary which is why they sponsored the GC in the first place. What does country of birth have to do this? If they want diversity, they have the FB quota which is a lot higher than the EB quota. Heck, they have a separate DV lottery quota simply to increase diversity. Why does EB GC which is skills based need to be based on diversity too?

Two- EB GCs only make up for 14% of the entire yearly quota. How can only 14% of the yearly quota which is dominated by Indians can make Indians fill up this country? People easily forget about the other 86% as they do not directly compete with us - that's the real reason. Finally, if they are worried about Indians filling up, its already happening. Unlike FB quota or DV quota, they are already here, already a part of society. They simply want you to pay taxes, contribute to their Social Security and Medicare but do not want to give you any rights.

Racism is alive and well in the US my friend. They simply re-branded it, now they call it "Diversity". US is the only developed country in the world that takes in more low skilled immigrants than high skilled immigrants as they keep the high skilled on unending visas. It is the only country which gives more importance to a 50 year old sibling of an American than a recent US STEM grad simply because he was born in a certain country. Who do you think will eventually contribute more to society?

All in the name of diversity and "family unity".

[gcq]

Racism is alive and well in the US my friend. They simply re-branded it, now they call it "Diversity".

All in the name of diversity and "family unity".

Yes that summarizes it.

Also take a look at 1965 INA which introduced country cap. What was before it ? even worse --


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immigration_and_Nationality_Act_of_1965

Previous laws restricted immigration from Asia and Africa while it gave preference to northern and western Europeans over southern and eastern Europeans.



So the general intent of people here is clear. Today we see remnants of this in lawmakers like Grassley and King of IOWA.

[nbk1976]

When the I-140 (Immigrant Petition) is approved, it should have some meaning. Never in any country do they approve your immigration petition and refuse to give you even basic benefits of being an immigrant--right to work. The whole "adjustment of status" is absolute bureaucratic nonsense. A visa number should be assigned as soon as the I-140 is approved. If no visa number is available, why even "approve" it? This three-tiered system (PERM/I-140/I-485) is just bullshit.

The theoretical purpose of EB immigration is to allow foreign workers with the right skills that are in short supply to take up jobs. If most of those skills seems to come from country A or B how does it matter? There is no reason why diversity should be part of any EB immigration. In any case, your relative is either uninformed or as not given much thought to about these things.

Here is an article on wait time for EB2/3 India: http://immigrationgirl.com/what-is-the-real-wait-time-for-eb-2-india-82-5-years/

[Jonty Rhodes]

Here is an article on wait time for EB2/3 India: http://immigrationgirl.com/what-is-the-real-wait-time-for-eb-2-india-82-5-years/

Yes, true. But that's if nothing would happen. If CIR or piecemeal reform happens, all this backlog will be wiped out in few months following reforms. But unless they change the visa numbers, the backlog will start again once the effect of reform wanes.

Regarding Q's comment, advocacy/lobbying works. But it can work only when things are favorable for that particular cause. Advocacy or lobbying can facilitate the change. It can never bring the change itself. I will just give you few simple examples. Pakistan spends millions of dollars on capitol hill for lobbying for their interests including getting military aid and weapons, but recently US denied them the F-16s that they were going to give them at discounted prices. Look at example of Saudi Arabia. They are the highest spenders of lobbying money in US but still a law was passed almost unanimously that families of 9/11 victims can sue Saudi Arabia despite that legislation receiving a Presidential veto earlier. They had spent millions of dollars in lobbying to block it for last 1 year. India also spends a lot of money in lobbying in US. But 20 years before, we were not getting results that we wanted because environment was not favorable towards India. Today, US is one of the closest ally of India and environment is favorable for India. So things are moving at a rapid pace and that is why lobbying money spent by India is bringing benefits for the same reason.

The conclusion from these examples is, when there is not a favorable environment for your purpose, it doesn't matter how much money you spent on lobbying or advocacy, things won't move in Washington. But when there is a favorable environment, money spent in lobbying is worth it because it will really help to move things fast.

I believe if Donald Trump loses the election badly and gets even worse vote percentage of minority, Hispanic and immigrant than Mitt Romney (which appears likely), then you will see some momentum towards bringing immigration reform of some sorts even from the GOP. Whether it will be CIR or piecemeal, is tough to say. But things will move for sure. That will be the right time to move in with full force with whatever we have including lobbying, advocacy, petitions, rallies, letters, campagins etc. because window of those kinds of opportunities is usually very narrow. Till that point, we should not sit tight and keep doing whatever we can but there won't be any real movement.

[ashu51]

Immigration Girl is wrong in estimating 82.5 years wait for EB2I candidates. It has not looked at working years of individuals, since Green Card application is for future employment. It is unlikely that any of the candidates will have Job Offers after 80 years of wait. Actual wait will be a lot smaller than 82.5 years for EB2I Candidates waiting for approval. I think immigration girl should be more responsible and stop peddling misleading information.

[Prabhas]

Thanks Q! It was indeed an unnecessary discussion with a novice guy who doesnt understand the whole issue.

So, after yesterday night debate, even though Trump seemed to have had a better day, that wasnt enough to do the damage control. So unless there is some sort a big October surprise, HRC and Dems chances look more promising for holding the oval office the third term as well. Do you guys see any chances of an immigration bill happening? HRC said she will bring /initiate a comprehensive bill in the first 100 days.

I missed an EAD by two months during the last intake.. I read kathopanishad whenever I feel pinched by these wait times ;):D

V

[Jagan01]

Thanks Q! It was indeed an unnecessary discussion with a novice guy who doesnt understand the whole issue.

So, after yesterday night debate, even though Trump seemed to have had a better day, that wasnt enough to do the damage control. So unless there is some sort a big October surprise, HRC and Dems chances look more promising for holding the oval office the third term as well. Do you guys see any chances of an immigration bill happening? HRC said she will bring /initiate a comprehensive bill in the first 100 days.

I missed an EAD by two months during the last intake.. I read kathopanishad whenever I feel pinched by these wait times ;):D

VHRC won't have house control. So chances if any new bill being passed are zero.

I also believe that dems don't want anything done for immigration. Obama promised a lot and had both democratic controlled house and senate for first term. Yet he did not pass any immigration bill. Have you wondered why ?

[idiotic]

HRC won't have house control. So chances if any new bill being passed are zero.

I also believe that dems don't want anything done for immigration. Obama promised a lot and had both democratic controlled house and senate for first term. Yet he did not pass any immigration bill. Have you wondered why ?

True and I do agree with what your are saying. But I hope that since this election is fought on immigration, both sides want to put this issue away after close to 30 years and will find some compromise next year.

[Jagan01]

True and I do agree with what your are saying. But I hope that since this election is fought on immigration, both sides want to put this issue away after close to 30 years and will find some compromise next year.We may hope as much as we wish. The reality does not change. If at all anything has a bleak chance, then it is LEGAL immigration, and that too under REPUBLICANS.

- Bush administration passed the rule of allowing the retention of PD and PD stays with candidate/employee ( a lot of the people are able to change jobs because of that rule)
- Bush administration pushed the DoS to make the dates current, thereby making everyone get EAD/AP
- Reagan did the last amnesty. Again republican.

What have Jimmy Carter/ Bill Clinton/ Obama done for immigration? Obama did some executive orders but we all know executive orders can be repealed easily.

[axecapone]

We may hope as much as we wish. The reality does not change. If at all anything has a bleak chance, then it is LEGAL immigration, and that too under REPUBLICANS.

- Bush administration passed the rule of allowing the retention of PD and PD stays with candidate/employee ( a lot of the people are able to change jobs because of that rule)
- Bush administration pushed the DoS to make the dates current, thereby making everyone get EAD/AP
- Reagan did the last amnesty. Again republican.

What have Jimmy Carter/ Bill Clinton/ Obama done for immigration? Obama did some executive orders but we all know executive orders can be repealed easily.

I cannot agree with Jagan more. Democrats are all talk and if they do anything, its only for the undocumented immigrants. Expect nothing from Hillary Clinton: She will want amnesty for undocumented immigrants even if its at the cost of legal immigration reform.

[axecapone]

Please do not generalize, only the insecure ones do not like the progress of other people, they are enough talented and kind Indians who are willing to help. On this forum, Q & Spec are prime examples.
I know there is lot of frustration out there because on non-movement, but I think this is not the right forum to vent it out. This is where people ask for help and suggestions. I have changed my thinking about immigration by following this forum and moving on with my life and career. Good luck to all.


No disrespect to the people of this forum. I agree that Q and other folks here have been great contributors. Apologies if I came across that way.

[idiotic]

I cannot agree with Jagan more. Democrats are all talk and if they do anything, its only for the undocumented immigrants. Expect nothing from Hillary Clinton: She will want amnesty for undocumented immigrants even if its at the cost of legal immigration reform.

Republican majority plan for fixing immigration. Can you please tell me how it will help backlogged candidates.

http://www.sessions.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/67ae7163-6616-4023-a5c4-534c53e6fc26/immigration-primer-for-the-114th-congress.pdf

I am just hopeful that immigration system will be revamped to address today's pain points including illegal and legal. I hope it happens in next congress only if democrats win senate and white house. There is small minority (freedom caucus) which will be against but they will be silenced next year.

[Jagan01]

Republican majority plan for fixing immigration. Can you please tell me how it will help backlogged candidates.

http://www.sessions.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/67ae7163-6616-4023-a5c4-534c53e6fc26/immigration-primer-for-the-114th-congress.pdf

I am just hopeful that immigration system will be revamped to address today's pain points including illegal and legal. I hope it happens in next congress only if democrats win senate and white house. There is small minority (freedom caucus) which will be against but they will be silenced next year.
You cannot point to one extreme right politician and use his stance as the stance of Republicans.

It is simple. Republicans DID things for immigrants and I have provided you a list. Dems did NOTHING for immigration.

Also, I would encourage you to look at the 2013 immigration bill introduced by the gang of eight. You would notice that all amendments in favor of legal immigration were introduced by Republicans like Sen Orin Hatch, etc.

Republicans even said that the "Diversity" visa needs to be scrapped and in turn, those visas need to be converted to a merit-based system (Employment based system effectively).

Having said that, I totally agree that Trump would not bring any relief to legal immigrants and neither would HRC. Basically, this election is irrelevant to the legal immigrant community.

[qesehmk]

Do you guys see any chances of an immigration bill happening? HRC said she will bring /initiate a comprehensive bill in the first 100 days.

My 2 cents are .. it doesn't matter who is in Oval office.


What have Jimmy Carter/ Bill Clinton/ Obama done for immigration? Obama did some executive orders but we all know executive orders can be repealed easily.
Carter was irrelevant. Immigration was not an issue. Clinton I believe did AC21 ... big deal!! Obama ... didn't he propose executive action only to be shot down by republicans and some texas court?


Basically, this election is irrelevant to the legal immigrant community. AMEN. That's what people should understand. No politician really cares about H1 folks. Rather they are vested in making sure that H1 slavery goes on. Friends this is no different that the cotton economics slavery in south in 18th and 19th century.

[idiotic]

You cannot point to one extreme right politician and use his stance as the stance of Republicans.

It is simple. Republicans DID things for immigrants and I have provided you a list. Dems did NOTHING for immigration.

Also, I would encourage you to look at the 2013 immigration bill introduced by the gang of eight. You would notice that all amendments in favor of legal immigration were introduced by Republicans like Sen Orin Hatch, etc.

Republicans even said that the "Diversity" visa needs to be scrapped and in turn, those visas need to be converted to a merit-based system (Employment based system effectively).

Having said that, I totally agree that Trump would not bring any relief to legal immigrants and neither would HRC. Basically, this election is irrelevant to the legal immigrant community.

He is the head of immigration subcommittee in senate judiciary committee when republicans are in power.
https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/about/subcommittees#immigration

I am not blaming all republicans but I dont want to claim that they are the saviorus of legal immigration. That is just a cover for their anti immigrant stance.

Gang of 8 bill was not taken to house floor because of republican freedom caucus in house. Its a well known fact.

I hope that extreme right wing will be silenced by the other pro immigration reform forces in next congress.

[gcq]

There was a time where GOP could do something for legal immigration. Not because they care for us, but they care for business. Now the situation has changed. Tea Party and Anti-immigrants like Grassley and King controls GOP. Many of the well meaning GOP lawmakers are not willing to take up immigration because anti-immigrant lobby lead by these lawmakers will pour in money to defeat the lawmakers. GOP will not win white house for foreseeable future because of these guys.

[EB3Iwaiting]

S. Korea is dominating ROW. This month they have surpassed China. Unfortunately, their overall numbers across are well below 7% to be considered as a separate country. So, they can continue to dominate ROW.

Also, unless USCIS is going back to the 3 times a year inventory release, the July one is really late. Almost time for the October one to come out. Maybe, they won't even release it anymore. Its not like they have any accountability.

[anuprab]

S. Korea is dominating ROW. This month they have surpassed China. Unfortunately, their overall numbers across are well below 7% to be considered as a separate country. So, they can continue to dominate ROW.

Also, unless USCIS is going back to the 3 times a year inventory release, the July one is really late. Almost time for the October one to come out. Maybe, they won't even release it anymore. Its not like they have any accountability.

just one word - SICK

[srimurthy]

just one word - SICK

Nov visa bulletin is out...
https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-november-2016.html

[saagar_is_cool]

Hi Experts, posting here to get attention, please move after this is answered.

I am a little confused with H1/H4 and EAD/AP status. I was on H1 and my PD became current in Sep 2014. I got EAD/AP then. My PD is Apr 2009 and I got EB3-EB2 upgrade with current employer during I140 which was approved in 2013. My H1 is valid till Nov 29 2016. When I went to India in Dec 2014, I used EAD/AP to reenter in January 2015 and as soon as I came back, I asked my employer to change my I9 to reflect that I am using EAD. So I guess my status is now EAD/AP or AOS. I renewd EAD/AP last year and it is valid till Oct 2017. Given this scenario, I have a full time offer which has the job duties matching to an extent and I have a few questions.

1. Is it a safer option to transfer on H1, so that I have H1 status if my current employer revokes I-140 and I get NOID. Since my I485 was filed in Sep 2014, I have been with the company more than 2 years since filing I485.
2. Can I move on just EAD/AP. If the current company revokes I140, would I get a NOID?
3. If I move on EAD/AP, should I file AC21, or wait till I get an RFE?
4. If I move on EAD/AP right now, can I transfer H1 later on because my new company wants me to join by October 31 to be eligible for bonus. Since my H1 is there till Nov 29, can I join and transfer later on?
5. Do I need to be aware of anything else? Am I missing anything. I didn't change company for more than 4 years with these fears but this is a very good opportunity.

[raj888]

I am no expert, but i can speak from my experience. I was in the same situation as you, a year back.
1) I did not transfer H1 when i switched jobs. Just provided the EAD as work autorization doc for the new job. From my experience, there are no issues with switching on EAD. I dont think you should worry about I140 revoke. Even if your current employer does that, since it is past 6 months after the I140 was approved, it should not impact you. I know there were few cases on trackitt where they got a NOID, but they were able to appeal it and get corrected.
2) refer 1
3) I waited for rfe. my new job title was completely different. the roles and responsibilities were kind of same but not similar. this was not an issue at all. i responded to rfe and the case was approved.
4) dont know
5) It appeared fairly safe to take a better opportunity.


Hi Experts, posting here to get attention, please move after this is answered.

I am a little confused with H1/H4 and EAD/AP status. I was on H1 and my PD became current in Sep 2014. I got EAD/AP then. My PD is Apr 2009 and I got EB3-EB2 upgrade with current employer during I140 which was approved in 2013. My H1 is valid till Nov 29 2016. When I went to India in Dec 2014, I used EAD/AP to reenter in January 2015 and as soon as I came back, I asked my employer to change my I9 to reflect that I am using EAD. So I guess my status is now EAD/AP or AOS. I renewd EAD/AP last year and it is valid till Oct 2017. Given this scenario, I have a full time offer which has the job duties matching to an extent and I have a few questions.

1. Is it a safer option to transfer on H1, so that I have H1 status if my current employer revokes I-140 and I get NOID. Since my I485 was filed in Sep 2014, I have been with the company more than 2 years since filing I485.
2. Can I move on just EAD/AP. If the current company revokes I140, would I get a NOID?
3. If I move on EAD/AP, should I file AC21, or wait till I get an RFE?
4. If I move on EAD/AP right now, can I transfer H1 later on because my new company wants me to join by October 31 to be eligible for bonus. Since my H1 is there till Nov 29, can I join and transfer later on?
5. Do I need to be aware of anything else? Am I missing anything. I didn't change company for more than 4 years with these fears but this is a very good opportunity.

[tenyearsgone]

I used EAD/AP to reenter in January 2015 and as soon as I came back, I asked my employer to change my I9 to reflect that I am using EAD. So I guess my status is now EAD/AP or AOS. I renewed EAD/AP last year and it is valid till Oct 2017.

AFAIK, Once you filled an I-9 to work on EAD, you cannot switch back to H1B just by renewing/transferring your H1. You'll get a H1B approval without an I-94. To get back on to a H1B status you would have to travel outside the country and get a H1B stamping.

1. It is safer .. though not necessarily for the reasons you've stated. The biggest risk I see with EAD is the renewal process - no premium processing, you've to stop working the day the EAD expires and RFEs can really delay the renewal. There are quite a few trackitt threads complaining of delay and having to quit/take a break from work as a result.
2. Yes. This seems to be quite rare and can be handled via the appeals.
3. Your call. If you anticipate your date to be current within a year, then I suggest filing AC21. You'll get an RFE in any case for medicals.
4. Yes, you can transfer H1 later. It'll come without a I-94 anyways and you can keep it as a backup option to be activated if needed.
5. Take the opportunity. You have a fallback with your H1 since you are on EAD. I think you have another 2 years to go to get your GC. Don't skip opportunities for GC.

**Please consult with an attorney. My suggestions above are not professional opinions.**

[GCwaiting]

YT, Spec ... other gurus
How does 2017 look for India EB3? What is your prediction here?
When do you think March 2005 will be cleared?

[bluelabel]

Looks like there are no spill overs from FB.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

[EB3Iwaiting]

Looks like there are no spill overs from FB.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

It is interesting that just when GC wastage in the EB category over the years was released by Ombudsman in 2010 and Indians started making a fuss about it since they are the ones most affected by the wastage, FB spillover to EB started drying up.

[bikenlalan]

Source Oh law,
AILA Reports Charlie Oppenheim's Prediction for Visa Bulletin for the Future

EB-1: No retrogression expected at least for the first half of the fiscal year for Worldwide as well as India and China.
India EB-2: For the Final Action Date Chart for the current I-485 approval waiters, it predicts that it is likely to reach November 2008 no later than March 2017. Between December 2016 and March 2017, EB-2 Final Action Date may move from four (4) months to (9) months in each month. There is no prediction for EB-2 Filing Date Chart for India EB-2 which a large number of EB-2 Indians are waiting for to file I-485 applications.
China EB-2: Likely to reach September 2012 no later than February 2017. Depending on the EB-3 demand, EB-2 China may advance more rapidly.
Worldwide EB-2: Likely remain "current."
EB-3 Philippines: Final action date may be able to advance as much as several months at a time hopefully.
EB-4 for India and Mexico : Likely remain "currnet."
EB-4 El Salvador/Guatemala/Honduras: Any forward movement in the final action date will be slow.

[vishnu]

has anyone applied (and received) for an H4 EAD while already in receipt of an 485/AOS EAD...

the idea would be for the H4 holder to use the H4/EAD and remain on H4 status (assuming primary remains on H1) rather than AOS...

some lawyers say that USCIS will not issue the H4 EAD if they know there is ample validity on the AOS EAD but I think that could be incorrect...

[bloddy1]

This questions may have been answered but given the consequences would like to pose it again.

1. I'm currently in-line with a PD of June 2010 and approved I140
2. Offered a new position with slightly higher roles & responsibility but similar (Manager Technical to Sr. Mgr Business)
3. If I were to take the new position, would I be able file for and port my PD (however bad that PD is)
4. Any suggestions as to can it go horribly wrong that I'm pushed back out ?

Thanks

[srimurthy]

One question on H4 EAD.
While waiting for the dates to become current with an approved I-140, in case I do a H1 transfer to a different company does the H4 EAD stays valid or not? As we would be getting new H1 and H4? Or should we also file for a new H4 EAD?

[raj888]

This questions may have been answered but given the consequences would like to pose it again.

1. I'm currently in-line with a PD of June 2010 and approved I140
2. Offered a new position with slightly higher roles & responsibility but similar (Manager Technical to Sr. Mgr Business)
3. If I were to take the new position, would I be able file for and port my PD (however bad that PD is)
4. Any suggestions as to can it go horribly wrong that I'm pushed back out ?

Thanks

From my experience,

Yes, you can port. I went through this excercise in 2011 and I don't think things can go more wrong than below :)

1) Within 2 months after I changed jobs, my PD became current in 2011
2) However, i had to wait for labor approval, which took a long time, and then it went into audit. And then guess what , the labor got denied.
3) Applied labor again and got it approved this time. Got current again in 2014 Aug. By this time labor and 140 was approved with new employer.so could file for 485. finally got GC in Apr 2016.

In the hindsight, had I not changed jobs in 2011, would have received EAD and could have changed jobs after that. But I got a very good opportunity so do not repent now.

[bloddy1]

Thanks Raj, That makes sense. I may end up in a similar situation, if things go into fantastic land after elections, but if it means I'm making decisions independent of the immigration process, it's almost a win however minor it may be.

A couple of questions;
1. Was moving your job or labor any way influenced for labor getting denied/audited?
2. Did you have to go through an evaluation of job descriptions, etc., or anything of that sort or is it like to like compare.
3. And anything you would suggest to look out for during this process?





From my experience,

Yes, you can port. I went through this excercise in 2011 and I don't think things can go more wrong than below :)

1) Within 2 months after I changed jobs, my PD became current in 2011
2) However, i had to wait for labor approval, which took a long time, and then it went into audit. And then guess what , the labor got denied.
3) Applied labor again and got it approved this time. Got current again in 2014 Aug. By this time labor and 140 was approved with new employer.so could file for 485. finally got GC in Apr 2016.

In the hindsight, had I not changed jobs in 2011, would have received EAD and could have changed jobs after that. But I got a very good opportunity so do not repent now.

[incredible]

Hi All
Please move this to appropriate thread. We are on EAD/AP and do not have any Visa (like H or L etc.). We are planning to visit Cozumel in Mexico along with Caymen Islands in December. Can we visit these places while on AP without any issue? Has anyone done it recently.
Please provide details if you can? All the consulate websites does not mention about EAD/AP situation.

[Umesh1209]

Hi incredible - I assume you are visiting these places in a cruise. If so, I did visit these places(I am on EAD / AP, no H1 or L1) last November and there were no issues. You may want to ensure that you are not staying in one country for more than one day. I believe that there are some restrictions. Enjoy your trip !!

[incredible]

Thanks for your quick reply. Much appreciated.

[mrperfect]

Dec Visa Bulletin is Out : EB2 India FAD moves 3 months: https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2017/visa-bulletin-for-december-2016.html

[mknop1]

What do the experts such as spec, q and others think about the Trump presidency and its impact on eb category folks from India ?

[kingjeremy]

Hi incredible - I assume you are visiting these places in a cruise. If so, I did visit these places(I am on EAD / AP, no H1 or L1) last November and there were no issues. You may want to ensure that you are not staying in one country for more than one day. I believe that there are some restrictions. Enjoy your trip !!

You will need a Mexican tourist visa. EAD/AP alone will not qualify as an entry permit. It's pretty easy to get that visa specially at the NY consulate.

[iatiam]

Spec,

Specific question for you. You had indicated in a previous post of your about the EB4 visa SO to EB2I and the impact of the child migrant crisis. I looked at the Wikipedia page and found this,

1104

The numbers are startling to say the least. Last year itself it was about 8,739 which would have been taken from EB4 bucket which explains why there was no SO to EB2I from EB4 quota.

Given the reduction of migrants from south of the border, do you expect these numbers to come down dramatically and helping forward movement of EB2I this year.

Regards

Iatiam

[Jonty Rhodes]

What do the experts such as spec, q and others think about the Trump presidency and its impact on eb category folks from India ?

I am no expert like Q or Spec but in my opinion, no one really knows what would be the final action plan. It is expected that he would crackdown hard on illegal immigrations and majority of his administration's concentration will be directed towards this agenda. As far as legal immigration is concerned, I don't see anything changing significantly on EB front. There would probably be H1B and L1 reforms. I can only hope that with L1 reform, EB1C loophole will be closed although it depends on what kind of provisions are there in L1 reform. As far as H1B reforms are concerned, it is mostly aimed at targeting outsourcing companies where it would have reforms on rising H1B worker wages and restrictions on hiring H1B workers before American workers. This would impact lot of people especially those who are not making six figure salaries.

Again, this is all mere speculation. What he and Congress would do in reality, no one knows and till that point no one knows who is safe. But my expectation is that at the most, he will reform H1B-L1 visas and won't do anything else about legal immigration.

[meragc]

hello gurus,
looking for some general advice and info for switching jobs on EAD. i am in my 3rd year of ead(EB2 PD Feb 2009) and not sure how long it will be before the GC arrives.
wanted to know about switching jobs on EAD, how the process works, how long it takes, how much does it cost, risk involved in filing ac21 etc, if the new job is similar to the one with my current employer?

[self.coach]

Folks, the i140 EAD rule is out (RIN1615-AC05)! Retention of Eb-1, EB-2, EB-3 Immigrant workers and program improvements affecting high skilled nonimmigrant workers:

Unpublished version can be downloaded here: https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2016-27540.pdf
Announcement can be found here: https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2016/11/18/2016-27540/retention-of-eb-1-eb-2-and-eb-3-immigrant-workers-and-program-improvements-affecting-high-skilled

It is a long document and needs to be vetted out for impacts on our lives.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Specific question for you. You had indicated in a previous post of your about the EB4 visa SO to EB2I and the impact of the child migrant crisis. I looked at the Wikipedia page and found this,

1104

The numbers are startling to say the least. Last year itself it was about 8,739 which would have been taken from EB4 bucket which explains why there was no SO to EB2I from EB4 quota.

Given the reduction of migrants from south of the border, do you expect these numbers to come down dramatically and helping forward movement of EB2I this year.

Regards

Iatiam
Iatiam,

In a word, NO.

The figures above are those published by USCIS. You can find an update until the end of Q3 FY2016 here (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I360_sij_performancedata_fy2016_qtr3.pdf).

To summarize that, for Q1-Q3 FY 2016, there were:

Petitions Received : 14,562
Petitions Approved: 10,552
Petitions Denied: 449
Petitions Pending: 8,044

The numbers are still increasing.

CO said even before FY2017 began, that EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA & HONDURAS would start with a 2015 FAD and only progress very slowly through FY2017. They are currently at 15JUL15 and have moved forward 1 month so far. In the December 2016 VB, MEXICO have also joined those Countries at that date in EB4.

In the December 2016 VB, CO said this:


D. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE MEXICO EMPLOYMENT-BASED FOURTH (E4) AND CERTAIN RELIGIOUS WORKERS (SR) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES

There continues to be high demand in the E4 and SR categories, primarily for Juvenile Court Dependent cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. Therefore, it has been necessary to impose Mexico E4 and SR Final Action Dates in an attempt to hold number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2017 annual limits.

I wouldn't want to speculate beyond FY2017, but my understanding is that it is a long and convoluted process through the court system to get to the stage where an EB4 application could be submitted. The numbers are such that it is quite probable that there remains a considerable backlog in the court system.

[arnab221]

Hello Gurus ,

Could some of you please help me out here ?

I have my consular interview scheduled during Dec 2016 at Mumbai Consulate in EB2 category.I am based out of India for the past 6 years(So no W2s). I do not and have never in the past worked for the Immigrant visa sponsor employer. The work that I do now for my present employer in India is very every similar to the role I am being hired for by the US employer. They are unrelated organisations. I have W2's from prior to 2011 when I was in US. I have valid Income tax returns from 2011 to 2016 as per Indian Govt norms.

The fact that I do not work in US currently on an H1B/L1 (unlike the overwhelming majority) and hence do not have W2 be a problem in the interview ? Barring this document/s I have all the documents that have been specified for the interview. All my documents were sent to the NVC and have been vetted by the NVC in the documentation phase and cleared before the interview was scheduled.

Also can someone provide their experience during the consular interview and what questions they might ask especially in my scenario where I am not working in the US and returning from US for the interview.

[nbk1976]

Regarding the new "automatic" extension rule for EAD-renewal (that are pending for 90-days),---how will this automatic extension happen?

Are we to receive an "interim card"? How shall we have to prove to our employers that we are authorized to work?

Also, will this apply to AP as well?

[arnab221]

Hello Gurus ,

Could some of you please help me out here ?

I have my consular interview scheduled during Dec 2016 at Mumbai Consulate in EB2 category.I am based out of India for the past 6 years(So no W2s). I do not and have never in the past worked for the Immigrant visa sponsor employer. The work that I do now for my present employer in India is very every similar to the role I am being hired for by the US employer. They are unrelated organisations. I have W2's from prior to 2011 when I was in US. I have valid Income tax returns from 2011 to 2016 as per Indian Govt norms.

The fact that I do not work in US currently on an H1B/L1 (unlike the overwhelming majority) and hence do not have W2 be a problem in the interview ? Barring this document/s I have all the documents that have been specified for the interview. All my documents were sent to the NVC and have been vetted by the NVC in the documentation phase and cleared before the interview was scheduled.

Also can someone provide their experience during the consular interview and what questions they might ask especially in my scenario where I am not working in the US and returning from US for the interview.

Can someone come up with any responses ? Are 100% of the posters in the 485 bucket ? I also find very little information elsewhere . Most NVC folks are marriage based.

[redsox2009]

Spec,

Any plans to update Trackitt Data?

[gcq]

Can someone come up with any responses ? Are 100% of the posters in the 485 bucket ? I also find very little information elsewhere . Most NVC folks are marriage based.

Arnab,

Greencard is for a future job. So you not working for the prospective employer is not an issue. Even on I-485 route you can be not working while you are in US and still get the GC. So there is nothing to worry.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Any plans to update Trackitt Data?redsox,

Not at this point, since I can't guarantee they would remain updated.

Here's the current situation for EB1-All and EB2-ROW.

EB1-ALL

---------------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016 ---------- FY2017
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------- 37 ----- 37 ----- 48 ----- 48 ----- 41 ----- 41 ----- 54 ----- 54 ----- 91 ----- 91 ---- 106 ---- 106
November ------ 44 ----- 81 ----- 39 ----- 87 ----- 47 ----- 88 ----- 40 ----- 94 ----- 40 ---- 131 ----- 63 ---- 169
December ------ 51 ---- 132 ----- 44 ---- 131 ----- 32 ---- 120 ----- 45 ---- 139 ----- 37 ---- 168 ------ 0 ---- 169
January ------- 62 ---- 194 ----- 42 ---- 173 ----- 39 ---- 159 ----- 59 ---- 198 ----- 43 ---- 211 ------ 0 ---- 169
February ------ 48 ---- 242 ----- 22 ---- 195 ----- 60 ---- 219 ----- 43 ---- 241 ----- 38 ---- 249 ------ 0 ---- 169
March --------- 63 ---- 305 ----- 45 ---- 240 ---- 103 ---- 322 ----- 52 ---- 293 ----- 67 ---- 316 ------ 0 ---- 169
April --------- 22 ---- 327 ----- 29 ---- 269 ----- 45 ---- 367 ----- 62 ---- 355 ----- 57 ---- 373 ------ 0 ---- 169
May ----------- 58 ---- 385 ----- 36 ---- 305 ----- 61 ---- 428 ----- 80 ---- 435 ----- 55 ---- 428 ------ 0 ---- 169
June ---------- 56 ---- 441 ----- 30 ---- 335 ----- 38 ---- 466 ----- 65 ---- 500 ----- 43 ---- 471 ------ 0 ---- 169
July ---------- 32 ---- 473 ----- 37 ---- 372 ----- 66 ---- 532 ----- 39 ---- 539 ----- 18 ---- 489 ------ 0 ---- 169
August -------- 54 ---- 527 ----- 42 ---- 414 ----- 57 ---- 589 ----- 74 ---- 613 ----- 15 ---- 504 ------ 0 ---- 169
September ----- 16 ---- 543 ----- 10 ---- 424 ----- 49 ---- 638 ----- 23 ---- 636 ----- 14 ---- 518 ------ 0 ---- 169

Total -------- 543 ------------- 424 ------------- 638 ------------- 636 ------------- 518 ------------- 169

Actual ---- 39,387 ---------- 39,058 ---------- 40,608 ---------- 41,990 ---------- ?????

EB1A --- 33 --- 19.5%
EB1B --- 25 --- 14.8%
EB1C -- 111 --- 65.7%
Total - 169 -- 100.0%

FY2016 Percentages
EB1A -- 106 --- 20.5%
EB1B --- 92 --- 17.8%
EB1C -- 320 --- 61.8%
Total - 518 -- 100.0%



EB2-ROW

---------------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016 ---------- FY2017
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 40 ----- 40 ----- 68 ----- 68 ----- 38 ----- 38 ----- 34 ----- 34 ----- 55 ----- 55 ---- 127 ---- 127
November ----- 14 ----- 54 ---- 122 ---- 190 ----- 24 ----- 62 ----- 30 ----- 64 ----- 39 ----- 94 ----- 49 ---- 176
December ----- 60 ---- 114 ----- 44 ---- 234 ----- 21 ----- 83 ----- 48 ---- 112 ----- 51 ---- 145 ------ 0 ---- 176
January ------ 58 ---- 172 ----- 90 ---- 324 ----- 13 ----- 96 ----- 43 ---- 155 ----- 54 ---- 199 ------ 0 ---- 176
February ----- 61 ---- 233 ----- 75 ---- 399 ----- 26 ---- 122 ----- 51 ---- 206 ----- 56 ---- 255 ------ 0 ---- 176
March -------- 64 ---- 297 ----- 65 ---- 464 ----- 51 ---- 173 ----- 78 ---- 284 ----- 80 ---- 335 ------ 0 ---- 176
April -------- 46 ---- 343 ----- 61 ---- 525 ----- 34 ---- 207 ---- 111 ---- 395 ----- 85 ---- 420 ------ 0 ---- 176
May ---------- 50 ---- 393 ----- 57 ---- 582 ----- 49 ---- 256 ----- 81 ---- 476 ----- 72 ---- 492 ------ 0 ---- 176
June --------- 52 ---- 445 ----- 48 ---- 630 ----- 36 ---- 292 ----- 96 ---- 572 ----- 66 ---- 558 ------ 0 ---- 176
July ---------- 3 ---- 448 ----- 45 ---- 675 ----- 35 ---- 327 ----- 37 ---- 609 ----- 26 ---- 584 ------ 0 ---- 176
August -------- 4 ---- 452 ----- 37 ---- 712 ----- 47 ---- 374 ----- 64 ---- 673 ------ 1 ---- 585 ------ 0 ---- 176
September ----- 1 ---- 453 ----- 20 ---- 732 ----- 42 ---- 416 ----- 45 ---- 718 ------ 3 ---- 588 ------ 0 ---- 176

Total ------- 453 ------------- 732 ------------- 416 ------------- 718 ------------- 588 ------------- 176

Actual --- 21,778 ---------- 36,485 ---------- 19,261 ---------- 29,457 ---------- ??????


EB2 ------ 129 -- 73.3%
EB2-NIW --- 47 -- 26.7%
Total ---- 176 - 100.0%

FY2016 Percentages
EB2 ------ 466 -- 79.3%
EB2-NIW -- 122 -- 20.7%
Total ---- 588 - 100.0%


By PD Year & Approval Month
PD ------ 2006 -- 2007 -- 2008 -- 2009 -- 2010 -- 2011 -- 2012 -- 2013 -- 2014 -- 2015 -- 2016 -- Total
October ---- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 7 ---- 90 ---- 29 ---- 127
November --- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 4 ---- 34 ---- 10 ----- 49
December --- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 0
January ---- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 0
February --- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 0
March ------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 0
April ------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 0
May -------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 0
June ------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 0
July ------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 0
August ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 0
September -- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------ 0

Total ------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 2 ---- 11 --- 124 ---- 39 ---- 176


By PD Year & PD Month
PD ------ 2006 -- 2007 -- 2008 -- 2009 -- 2010 -- 2011 -- 2012 -- 2013 -- 2014 -- 2015 -- 2016 -- Total
January ---- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 8 ----- 7 ----- 15
February --- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 2 ----- 7 ---- 10 ----- 20
March ------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 6 ----- 7 ----- 13
April ------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 4 ----- 7 ----- 11
May -------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 8 ----- 2 ----- 11
June ------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ---- 10 ----- 2 ----- 12
July ------- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 1 ---- 11 ----- 3 ----- 15
August ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 3 ---- 14 ----- 0 ----- 17
September -- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 1 ---- 16 ----- 0 ----- 18
October ---- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 2 ---- 15 ----- 1 ----- 18
November --- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ---- 11 ----- 0 ----- 11
December --- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 1 ---- 14 ----- 0 ----- 15

Total ------ 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 2 ---- 11 --- 124 ---- 39 ---- 176

[geniusmag]

Regarding the new "automatic" extension rule for EAD-renewal (that are pending for 90-days),---how will this automatic extension happen?

Are we to receive an "interim card"? How shall we have to prove to our employers that we are authorized to work?

Also, will this apply to AP as well?

I think the way it will work is that you will provide receipt of having filed EAD extension in time to your employer as a valid document , just the way it works for H1B extensions.
I do not think this will work for AP as the purpose is to avoid a gap in employment, one can always file for emergency AP if in need.

Experts may add more.

[singax]

VB Jan 2017 is out.

EB2 India - 15APR08
EB3 India - 15MAR05 (No change)

[admercy]

Hello,

Can someone shed some light on my situation mentioned below?

1. My company is moving the office (to a different state) which was used to file my PERM and I-140. This will be done in 3 months from now.
2. My PD is in 2012
3. My current H-1B expires in November 2017
4. I have a full-time offer from the client where I have been working since last 2 years. Client is ready to process H-1B transfer and GC. I have agreed to accept the offer sometime in summer (didn’t know the development mentioned in step 1 above).
5. Lets see the office is closed in March 2017. I assume my PERM and I-140 will be then invalid as PERM mentions the fixed worksite location.
6. Do you see any issue in my H1 transfer in say July 2017 with the client based on my approved 1-40 to get 3 yrs. extension?
7. Assuming the client does not process my GC immediately, will I be able to do further H-1B extensions in future with my old approved 1-140 and get 3 years H1 extension?

Really appreciate if someone could answer the above. Moderators, please move this to the appropriate forum once the above gets clarified.

Thank you.

[EB2-03252009]

Hi Spec,

Can you please update the trackitt data once a month? it really helps to keep track of what is going on. I know you used to do it almost daily but once a month would be awesome!

[nagendra75]

Happy Holidays Team!

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

Can you please update the trackitt data once a month? it really helps to keep track of what is going on. I know you used to do it almost daily but once a month would be awesome!

I'll publish them again at the end of Q1.

EDIT:- They've now been posted.

[bikenlalan]

I-485 Pending Inventory (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_October_2016.pdf) published

As of October 2016,
EB2-I 19752
EB3-I 12630 (drop of ~5500 from Jan/April 2016 Inventory)

[EB2-03252009]

Thank you!

[EB3Iwaiting]

What is more interesting to see is the EB2ROW vs the EB3ROW inventory. The EB2ROW inventory has actually gone up from 18.8k to 22.4k while the EB3ROW inventory decreased from 12k to 9.6k. If we compare the last few months of pending inventory, EB3ROW has around 600 per month while EB2ROW is anywhere from 1100 to 1500 per month. The data clearly points to higher EB2ROW filings than EB3ROW.

CO continues to be bias waiting for the EB3ROW demand to "show up".

[amulchandra]

What is more interesting to see is the EB2ROW vs the EB3ROW inventory. The EB2ROW inventory has actually gone up from 18.8k to 22.4k while the EB3ROW inventory decreased from 12k to 9.6k. If we compare the last few months of pending inventory, EB3ROW has around 600 per month while EB2ROW is anywhere from 1100 to 1500 per month. The data clearly points to higher EB2ROW filings than EB3ROW.

CO continues to be bias waiting for the EB3ROW demand to "show up".

Exactly my thoughts which I posted in the other thread.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2625-ROW-Implications-Of-Increased-Past-PERM-Certifications-On-Future-I-485-Approvals/page2


May be EB2 is the new EB3 where employees can be held hostage for longer periods of time on H1Bs. So most company HRs are piling in everyone into EB2.Think in that way.

On a separate note , I hope Eb3 I clears 2005/2006 this FY.
Gurus here, really appreciate any thoughts on EB3 I future this year. Please throw some light.

[iatiam]

I was hoping to see some reduction in EB2I inventory whereas it has gone up by 700! In other words, the porting continues unabated and is expected to continue until some thing dramatic happens. Given these circumstances, I have a few questions,

1. What will be the EB3I situation at the end of FY? Can we expect to get some spillover from EB3ROW?
2. What will be effect of processing times of EB2ROW on EB2I
3. If the Trump administration cracks down on illegal immigration, would it have an effect on EB4?

Spec mentioned in a prior post that EB4 (under the Special Immigrant Juvenile) quota is showing high demand, so I am guessing that any impact from increased deportations will be hard to come by for at least one year.

Regards

Iatiam

[knighthood83]

I was hoping to see some reduction in EB2I inventory whereas it has gone up by 700! In other words, the porting continues unabated and is expected to continue until some thing dramatic happens. Given these circumstances, I have a few questions,

1. What will be the EB3I situation at the end of FY? Can we expect to get some spillover from EB3ROW?
2. What will be effect of processing times of EB2ROW on EB2I
3. If the Trump administration cracks down on illegal immigration, would it have an effect on EB4?

Spec mentioned in a prior post that EB4 (under the Special Immigrant Juvenile) quota is showing high demand, so I am guessing that any impact from increased deportations will be hard to come by for at least one year.

Regards

Iatiam

In the coming years we are going to see an intresting dynamic. This is my take. Because of ultra nationalism that is appearing and the incoming President using twitter to shame companies and take credit for keeping jobs , we might see similar behavior when it comes to companies using large number of H1 in the yearly quota.

So for example if TCS uses large nuber of H1b they will get called out on twitter and that will huge PR disaster for them and any company .

As a result we might see companies not file for new H1B and they might see similar dynamics on L1. I dont think companies want to get bad PR and then have the new attorney general come behind them . I think they will adopt a long view and stay away from filing H1 and L1 visas. It might be wait and watch for them.

I know TCS has started to recruit only GC and citizens. I truly belive this will happen. This might lead to more spill over. What we see as a negative might turn into a positive for backlogged folks.

I know my company a big financial firm is unwilling to do even H1 transfers. I know of an airline company which has stopped H1 in response to the election as a wait and watch. I think we will see this wholesale.

We will also see OPT extensions going away. The incentives for students to come here will go down as well as companies will be unwilling to do H1. That will dry up the F1 to H1 pipeline. I do believe we will start seeing this in the coming years. The dynamics which held during Obama years will not hold now due to the rise of nationalism and america first strain. Republicans were free market and competition oriented they are not anymore. Ppl dont trust big corporations they dont belive they create jobs . So faith in free markt captilasim is dwindling and we are seeing a shift towards nationalism and a closed society. This is a result part of the financial crisis , slow growing wages , automation etc.

[SV2007]

What is more interesting to see is the EB2ROW vs the EB3ROW inventory. The EB2ROW inventory has actually gone up from 18.8k to 22.4k while the EB3ROW inventory decreased from 12k to 9.6k. If we compare the last few months of pending inventory, EB3ROW has around 600 per month while EB2ROW is anywhere from 1100 to 1500 per month. The data clearly points to higher EB2ROW filings than EB3ROW.

CO continues to be bias waiting for the EB3ROW demand to "show up".

Can't agree more. In comparison to 2015 October pending inventory, not only EB3ROW but also EB3 P/M/C pending inventory numbers are lesser (though less significant) in October 2016 pending inventory. I hope there is a decent spill over to EB3I and the backlog reduces/clears in 2017.

Spec / YTEleven and Other Guru's - can you please post your thoughts on EB3I for 2017. What would be an approximate timeframe for EB3I inventory up to 2007 Aug to clear?

[Raj0687]

Who are those in the inventory, filled in EB2I and EB3I from 2011 to 2016?

[ajay1234]

chpr123,

Being able to file for an EAD and AP is a benefit of a pending I-485.

At such time as you are able to file an I-485, you will also be eligible to file for an EAD and AP.

You will be able to file for an I-485 when EITHER:

a) The Filing Chart shows a date later than your PD in the your EB category.
AND
b) USCIS allows you to use that chart rather than the Final Action Chart for that month.

OR

c) The Final Action Chart shows a date later than your PD in the your EB category.

For a Q3 2010 PD (presumably in EB2-I), I personally think that neither of the above conditions are likely to be fulfilled in the date range in your post.

Thank you for all the time you put into analyzing USCIS data. my PD is June23rd2010 EB2 India, do you see any possibility my dates would be current for an EAD in Year 2017 ?. I have a full time offer to get into sr.management role with my current client , but worried to restart GC process and loosing EAD opportunity if dates become current this year.

[Spectator]

DOS has started to publish the FY2016 Visa Statistics, although not the most interesting ones as of yet. It may be several weeks before they are published.

We can observe some trends in Consular Processing from the Tables published to date.

Immigrant and Nonimmigrant Visas Issued at Foreign Service Posts Fiscal Years 2012 - 2016

Immigrant Categories ------------- FY2012 ---- FY2013 ---- FY2014 ---- FY2015 ---- FY2016
Immediate Relatives ------------- 235,616 --- 205,435 --- 185,130 --- 243,432 --- 315,352
Special Immigrants ---------------- 5,219 ----- 6,424 ---- 12,084 ----- 9,468 ---- 16,176
Vietnam Amerasian Immigrants --------- 75 -------- 12 -------- 13 -------- 13 --------- 6
Family Sponsored Preference ----- 189,128 --- 189,020 --- 197,760 --- 208,840 --- 215,498
Employment-Based Preference ------ 19,137 ---- 21,144 ---- 21,365 ---- 21,613 ---- 25,056
Armed Forces Special Immigrants ------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0
Diversity Immigrants ------------- 33,125 ---- 51,080 ---- 51,018 ---- 48,097 ---- 45,664

Total --------------------------- 482,300 --- 473,115 --- 467,370 --- 531,463 --- 617,752

Both FB and EB preference category CP approvals have increased.
Of the 226k available for the FB preference, CP accounted for 95% of approvals in FY2016.

EMPLOYMENT BASED CONSULAR PROCESSING
------------- FY2015 --- FY2016 ---- DIFF.
CHINA -------- 9,005 ---- 8,673 --- ( 332)
INDIA ---------- 682 ------ 676 ----- ( 6)
MEXICO --------- 266 ------ 241 ---- ( 25)
PHILIPPINES -- 3,981 ---- 5,664 --- 1,683
ROW ---------- 7,679 ---- 9,802 --- 2,123

TOTAL ------- 21,613 --- 25,056 --- 3,443

SOUTH KOREA -- 1,536 ---- 2,953 --- 1,417


Employment Based CP approvals increased 16% over FY2015 in FY2016. All of the increase came in either Philippines or ROW.
Within ROW, South Korea accounted for a large part of the rise. South Korea CP approvals increased 92% in FY2016 over FY2015.


Employment Categories ------------- FY2012 --- FY2013 --- FY2014 --- FY2015 --- FY2016
EB1 -------------------------------- 1,534 ---- 1,722 ---- 1,680 ---- 1,891 ---- 2,361
EB2 -------------------------------- 1,398 ---- 2,284 ---- 1,880 ---- 1,856 ---- 2,155

EB3 Professional/Skilled ----------- 6,290 ---- 6,903 ---- 6,246 ---- 6,226 ---- 7,961
EB3 Other Worker ------------------- 2,020 ---- 1,634 ------ 842 ---- 1,114 ---- 2,340
EB3 Total -------------------------- 8,310 ---- 8,537 ---- 7,088 ---- 7,340 --- 10,301

EB4 -------------------------------- 1,217 ---- 1,289 ---- 1,489 ---- 1,753 ---- 1,734
EB5 -------------------------------- 6,678 ---- 7,312 ---- 9,228 ---- 8,773 ---- 8,505

Employment-Based Preference Total - 19,137 --- 21,144 --- 21,365 --- 21,613 --- 25,056


EB3-Other Worker CP approvals have doubled in FY2016 over FY2015. Even EB3-Professional/Skilled CP approvals have increased 28%.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

DOS has started to publish the FY2016 Visa Statistics, although not the most interesting ones as of yet. It may be several weeks before they are published.

We can observe some trends in Consular Processing from the Tables published to date.

Immigrant and Nonimmigrant Visas Issued at Foreign Service Posts Fiscal Years 2012 - 2016

Immigrant Categories ------------- FY2012 ---- FY2013 ---- FY2014 ---- FY2015 ---- FY2016
Immediate Relatives ------------- 235,616 --- 205,435 --- 185,130 --- 243,432 --- 315,352
Special Immigrants ---------------- 5,219 ----- 6,424 ---- 12,084 ----- 9,468 ---- 16,176
Vietnam Amerasian Immigrants --------- 75 -------- 12 -------- 13 -------- 13 --------- 6
Family Sponsored Preference ----- 189,128 --- 189,020 --- 197,760 --- 208,840 --- 215,498
Employment-Based Preference ------ 19,137 ---- 21,144 ---- 21,365 ---- 21,613 ---- 25,056
Armed Forces Special Immigrants ------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0 --------- 0
Diversity Immigrants ------------- 33,125 ---- 51,080 ---- 51,018 ---- 48,097 ---- 45,664

Total --------------------------- 482,300 --- 473,115 --- 467,370 --- 531,463 --- 617,752

Both FB and EB preference category CP approvals have increased.
Of the 226k available for the FB preference, CP accounted for 95% of approvals in FY2016.

EMPLOYMENT BASED CONSULAR PROCESSING
------------- FY2015 --- FY2016 ---- DIFF.
CHINA -------- 9,005 ---- 8,673 --- ( 332)
INDIA ---------- 682 ------ 676 ----- ( 6)
MEXICO --------- 266 ------ 241 ---- ( 25)
PHILIPPINES -- 3,981 ---- 5,664 --- 1,683
ROW ---------- 7,679 ---- 9,802 --- 2,123

TOTAL ------- 21,613 --- 25,056 --- 3,443

SOUTH KOREA -- 1,536 ---- 2,953 --- 1,417


Employment Based CP approvals increased 16% over FY2015 in FY2016. All of the increase came in either Philippines or ROW.
Within ROW, South Korea accounted for a large part of the rise. South Korea CP approvals increased 92% in FY2016 over FY2015.

The Pending Inventory suggests EB2I is going to be stagnant this year. What do you think?

[anuprab]

I was looking at pending inventory, EB3 RoW is very little inventory so there has to be good SO to EB3I. Then why the hell are dates for EB3I not moving rapidly, am i missing something?
Also can experts please comment on EB3I situation, Spec, YTEleven, anyone?

[nbk1976]

Feb 2017 Visa Bulletin has been published, and there is no movement for EB2-India, and a week forward for EB3-India. One month forward for EB China.

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin.html

[vedu]

I was looking at pending inventory, EB3 RoW is very little inventory so there has to be good SO to EB3I. Then why the hell are dates for EB3I not moving rapidly, am i missing something?
Also can experts please comment on EB3I situation, Spec, YTEleven, anyone?

The dates will move for sure, but only during the last quarter of the year. EB3I will end up in a good spot by the year end. At the least, all 2005 cases will be cleared. The patience is key here!

[vedu]

Feb 2017 Visa Bulletin has been published, and there is no movement for EB2-India, and a week forward for EB3-India. One month forward for EB China.

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin.html

It will be opposite the next month. EB3I will have no movement, and EB2I will move forward by a couple of months. We will be in this steady-state flow situation till the last quarter of the year.

[jimmykashmir]

Looking at the numbers used for EB3ROW in total for FY2015 were not numbers wasted?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

It will be opposite the next month. EB3I will have no movement, and EB2I will move forward by a couple of months. We will be in this steady-state flow situation till the last quarter of the year.


The dates will move for sure, but only during the last quarter of the year. EB3I will end up in a good spot by the year end. At the least, all 2005 cases will be cleared. The patience is key here!

Your comments seem to contradict each other. If you are saying EB3I 2005 will be cleared, then the RFE's have to start rolling out for <Apr2005 in the next month or 2 and those >Apr2005 folks at least by July 1 (like it happened 2 yrs ago). Otherwise, there is no hopes to clear 2005.

[eb2visa]

Looks like lifting per-country limit with a rule making is not possible according to below: (per Employment-Based Immigration System Modernization Rule)

3. Limits on Employment-Based Immigration by Country Comment. Several commenters suggested that the per-country limits on available immigrant visas disproportionately iscriminate against individuals from India, China, the Philippines, and Mexico. Some commenters stated that the system should be changed so that the number of available mmigrant visas would be proportionate to the percentage of individuals from India and China working as professionals in the United States on H–1B visas. Commenters noted that the per-country limits fail to account for high population countries with larger numbers of well-educated and high-skilled professionals given that smaller countries have the same percentage of visas available to them. One commenter suggested that the percountry limits are not compatible with the equitable concept of responding to applicants on a first-come, first-served basis. Several commenters suggested that DHS increase the number of available immigrant visas or remove the per-country limits completely, both to speed up processing times and to lessen the adverse impact on Indian and Chinese nationals. Another commenter stated that the per-country limits are illogical, unfair and unpredictable, causing individuals from India and China to suffer unfairly. One commenter stated that merit should be the metric for retaining high-skilled workers, not country of birth.

Response. DHS understands the frustration expressed by commenters who have begun the process to obtain lawful permanent residence, but who are subject to long waits efore their priority date becomes current as a result of the per-country visa limits applicable to their country of birth. However, DHS is unable to make immigrant visas available without regard to an individual’s country of birth as these are statutory requirements under the INA. See generally INA 202, 8 U.S.C. 1152. In particular, INA 202(a) (2), requires that, in any fiscal year, individuals born in any given country generally may be allocated no more than seven percent of the total number of immigrant visas. Thus, only Congress can change the percountry limitations in this statutory provision. DHS notes that this Administration supported lifting the per-country cap as a part of commonsense immigration reform legislation that has considered and passed the U.S. Senate in 2013.

[cursedguy]

Looks like lifting per-country limit with a rule making is not possible according to below: (per Employment-Based Immigration System Modernization Rule)

3. Limits on Employment-Based Immigration by Country Comment. Several commenters suggested that the per-country limits on available immigrant visas disproportionately iscriminate against individuals from India, China, the Philippines, and Mexico. Some commenters stated that the system should be changed so that the number of available mmigrant visas would be proportionate to the percentage of individuals from India and China working as professionals in the United States on H–1B visas. Commenters noted that the per-country limits fail to account for high population countries with larger numbers of well-educated and high-skilled professionals given that smaller countries have the same percentage of visas available to them. One commenter suggested that the percountry limits are not compatible with the equitable concept of responding to applicants on a first-come, first-served basis. Several commenters suggested that DHS increase the number of available immigrant visas or remove the per-country limits completely, both to speed up processing times and to lessen the adverse impact on Indian and Chinese nationals. Another commenter stated that the per-country limits are illogical, unfair and unpredictable, causing individuals from India and China to suffer unfairly. One commenter stated that merit should be the metric for retaining high-skilled workers, not country of birth.

Response. DHS understands the frustration expressed by commenters who have begun the process to obtain lawful permanent residence, but who are subject to long waits efore their priority date becomes current as a result of the per-country visa limits applicable to their country of birth. However, DHS is unable to make immigrant visas available without regard to an individual’s country of birth as these are statutory requirements under the INA. See generally INA 202, 8 U.S.C. 1152. In particular, INA 202(a) (2), requires that, in any fiscal year, individuals born in any given country generally may be allocated no more than seven percent of the total number of immigrant visas. Thus, only Congress can change the percountry limitations in this statutory provision. DHS notes that this Administration supported lifting the per-country cap as a part of commonsense immigration reform legislation that has considered and passed the U.S. Senate in 2013.

No surprise there ..Changing per country limit requires Immigration law change.

[vedu]

Your comments seem to contradict each other. If you are saying EB3I 2005 will be cleared, then the RFE's have to start rolling out for <Apr2005 in the next month or 2 and those >Apr2005 folks at least by July 1 (like it happened 2 yrs ago). Otherwise, there is no hopes to clear 2005.

Do they need dates to be current to issue a RFE?

[smuggymba]

Anyone heard about the new I-485 Schedule J form that needs to be filled out in place of an EVL? Can you please confirm if that's for AC21 or for EVL as well. Has that process changed recently.

https://www.uscis.gov/i-485supj

[incredible]

Hi
I reached out to my attorney on this and I was told that it is required to be filed only if USCIS asks for it.


Anyone heard about the new I-485 Schedule J form that needs to be filled out in place of an EVL? Can you please confirm if that's for AC21 or for EVL as well. Has that process changed recently.

https://www.uscis.gov/i-485supj

[axecapone]

There are rumors that Trump would sign an EO that would cut the refugee visas by 50k. Since most refugees need to apply for a greencard within 1 year of entry, this would imply that there would be 50k fewer greencards. Would this result in spillover to EB2 and EB3? Is that legally even possible?

[EB2-03252009]

I'll publish them again at the end of Q1.

EDIT:- They've now been posted.

Hi Spec,

When do you think this section will be updated for 2016? any timeline?

Forum--Calculations and Predictions---FACTS AND DATA (Registration Required to Read)--DHS Data

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

When do you think this section will be updated for 2016? any timeline?

Forum--Calculations and Predictions---FACTS AND DATA (Registration Required to Read)--DHS DataWhen DOS publish the figures - probably sometime in February.

[ragx2012]

Hello,

Can someone shed some light on my situation mentioned below?

1. My company is moving the office (to a different state) which was used to file my PERM and I-140. This will be done in 3 months from now.
2. My PD is in 2012
3. My current H-1B expires in November 2017
4. I have a full-time offer from the client where I have been working since last 2 years. Client is ready to process H-1B transfer and GC. I have agreed to accept the offer sometime in summer (didn’t know the development mentioned in step 1 above).
5. Lets see the office is closed in March 2017. I assume my PERM and I-140 will be then invalid as PERM mentions the fixed worksite location.
6. Do you see any issue in my H1 transfer in say July 2017 with the client based on my approved 1-40 to get 3 yrs. extension?
7. Assuming the client does not process my GC immediately, will I be able to do further H-1B extensions in future with my old approved 1-140 and get 3 years H1 extension?

Really appreciate if someone could answer the above. Moderators, please move this to the appropriate forum once the above gets clarified.

Thank you.

admercy,

I was in similar situation 5 yrs back. Had to reapply perm & 140. The law says if the employer moved more than 30mi (don't remember the exactly - but it is < 50mi) from current location, gc process has to start from perm again; ofcourse the pd will be ported. With the way things are currently changing, I suggest you check with your attorney and follow their advice.

Not sure about your other questions.

-Ragx

[incredible]

Hi Gurus

I have a business visit to India coming up later in February. I have a pending I-485 and approved EAD along with AP (approved till 2018). I have also traveled multiple times out of the country on AP in the last couple of years.
Is it safe to travel to India later this month, in the context of current political situation and return back on AP? Please note that I do not have either H or L Visa.

Thanks for quickly

[EB2-03252009]

admercy,

I was in similar situation 5 yrs back. Had to reapply perm & 140. The law says if the employer moved more than 30mi (don't remember the exactly - but it is < 50mi) from current location, gc process has to start from perm again; ofcourse the pd will be ported. With the way things are currently changing, I suggest you check with your attorney and follow their advice.

Not sure about your other questions.

-Ragx

What if the company moves after you applied your i-485 and in pending status?

[arnab221]

Group ,

Glad to share that my GC was approved through consular processing on 30th December 2016. I had also planned to write a detailed blog for folks choosing consular processing because there exists so little information on it. Please feel free to share the blog with folks choosing consular processing.

Below is blog , just finished it today . Will update it with some more artifacts as soon as I have finished cleansing and securing the confidential information .

http://ebconsularprocessing.blogspot.in/2017/01/employment-based-green-card-by-consular.html

[ragx2012]

What if the company moves after you applied your i-485 and in pending status?

Good question! Unfortunately, I have no idea what to do in this case. Technically, if you could move to a different job following certain process after filing I-485, you could do the same for this case as a worst case scenario. I'm sure there are better alternative which I'm not aware.

[eb2visa]

arnab, Congrats and these details are very much valuable. Will definitely help people in the future.


Group ,

Glad to share that my GC was approved through consular processing on 30th December 2016. I had also planned to write a detailed blog for folks choosing consular processing because there exists so little information on it. Please feel free to share the blog with folks choosing consular processing.

Below is blog , just finished it today . Will update it with some more artifacts as soon as I have finished cleansing and securing the confidential information .

http://ebconsularprocessing.blogspot.in/2017/01/employment-based-green-card-by-consular.html

[nbk1976]

Hi
I reached out to my attorney on this and I was told that it is required to be filed only if USCIS asks for it.

My attorney (Ron Gotcher) advises the same: that nothing needs to be sent (including Form J) until an RFE is raised requesting that information.

[nbk1976]

They normally begin issuing RFEs a few months in anticipation of the PD becoming current. By the way, even after you respond to the RFE in a timely manner, it is very likely that dates will retrogress. Many a folk has had this horrible experience, not once, not twice, but thrice or more.

[Madhu7]

On other note, does anyone has numbers for EB3-I inventory in March 2005 split week wise? I remember I saw this information somewhere on this blog and the OP said most of the ~2000 numbers are concentrated in last week of March. If someone has this information it will give us some guidance into how many months we will be stuck in March 2005.

[Spectator]

On other note, does anyone has numbers for EB3-I inventory in March 2005 split week wise? I remember I saw this information somewhere on this blog and the OP said most of the ~2000 numbers are concentrated in last week of March. If someone has this information it will give us some guidance into how many months we will be stuck in March 2005.I think what you recall is this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/5-EB3-Predictions-amp-Calculations?p=57969#post57969). I have reproduced the salient part below:


As part of the Chinese EB3 lawsuit, CO released the IVAMS figures for EB3 as of July 19, 2010. That showed that EB3-I applications are not distributed evenly for March 2005 - the majority are in the last week.

Mar 1 to Mar 7 ------- 7.8% = FAD of 08MAR05
Mar 8 to Mar 14 ----- 10.7% = FAD of 15MAR05
Mar 15 to Mar 21 ---- 14.2% = FAD of 22MAR05
Mar 22 to Mar 31 ---- 67.3% = FAD of 01APR05

The % are likely to have remained similar over time.

The reason is almost certainly due to the RIR / PERM changeover for labor certification.

[Madhu7]

Thanks Spec. So there are about 1300-1400 after 22nd March based on latest inventory figure. Looks like EB3-I will remain in March 2005 till June at least.

[vedu]

It will be opposite the next month. EB3I will have no movement, and EB2I will move forward by a couple of months. We will be in this steady-state flow situation till the last quarter of the year.

So looks like my prediction did come through in the recent visa bulletin. Things are humming along nicely as expected!!

[almost]

Hi Gurus

I have a business visit to India coming up later in February. I have a pending I-485 and approved EAD along with AP (approved till 2018). I have also traveled multiple times out of the country on AP in the last couple of years.
Is it safe to travel to India later this month, in the context of current political situation and return back on AP? Please note that I do not have either H or L Visa.

Thanks for quickly

Hi Incredible,
I just got back from India recently. While this whole mess is flip flopping, be prepared to answer extra questions even though right now that issue is on hold. I landed 28th with an AP at Newark NJ in the middle of all that sh!t storm and had to answer a lot more questions then I ever did for all my prior trips put together. The stories from other folks are similar even now.

[AC_1980]

Flew into Newark this morning. wife (secondary) and I (primary) are on EAD/AP, children are US citizens. First officer:
Q1 - How long were you out of US?
Q2 - What was the purpose of your trip?

Then went to standard secondary checking. Second officer:
Q1 - How long was your trip for?
Q2 - What are you adjusting status based on?

Stamped paperwork and we walked out. That was it for us.

[abcx13]

Flew into JFK today. No ruder than normal. Standard boilerplate questions - where are you coming from, what do you do, etc.

[imdeng]

"no ruder than normal" :-)

There is a certain amount of rudeness that is just baked into the system now. Just part of normal expectations.


Flew into JFK today. No ruder than normal. Standard boilerplate questions - where are you coming from, what do you do, etc.