EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020 [Archive] - Page 7

givemegc

02-24-2016, 09:11 AM

Here is my take on this: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_01-12-2016.pdf

Earlier I thought FY09 EB2-I PDs will get their GCs in FY16 i.e. this year.
Now I'm thinking this may not be possible completely (not sure what happens to their Medical RFEs) and they have to wait for another year i.e. till FY17, that makes them to wait for +8 years from their PDs to realize their GC dreams.
We are not even talking about FY10 or FY11 PDs (may be their wait times will result in +9yrs or +10yrs from their PDs).
God only knows the fate of FY12 and beyond PDs (I don't want to think of anything beyond 4 years from now).

why are FY09 EB2-I PDs stuck like this?
1) ZERO spillover from EB1 and this will be continued for couple of more years in future until we see another recession.
2) Upward porting from EB3-I to EB2-I. I clearly see that there is 1500 increase in inventory between Oct15 and Jan16.
This is the reason why the USCIS is NOT honoring the filing dates proposed by DOS in the VBs from NOV'15 onwards instead it is using the final action dates. This will continue until the EB3-I catchup the EB2-I dates stopping the upward porting completely.
3) Moderate spillover from EB2-ROW to EB2-I. This will continue until the EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW demand split equally.

What makes the FY09 EB2-I PDs move forward at least next year?
The points 2 & 3 from the above question are directly or indirectly tied up with the actions happening in EB3 category.
Here is what I'm thinking that will happen: Seeing the low demand in EB3-ROW will give a huge spillover to EB3-I by this yearend, I was expecting this should be around 20k spillover for the long time now. If this happens then the EB3-I backlogs will erase till 2007 and CO will get an opportunity to open up the FY08 and FY09 for EB3-I to see that there is not much demand exists (as most of them are ported already), that is when the EB3-I will catch up with EB2-I dates, nullifying the upward porting and making way to downward porting and forward movement in EB2-I beyond FY09 PDs. So KEY here is the huge spillover from EB3-ROW to EB3-I. ( I’m still positive this will happen this year)
Alternatively, based on point 3 above, currently the ROW demand is concentrated in EB2 which should be spread across equally into EB3 once the both categories become CURRENT, which will increase the EB2-ROW spillover but might reduce the EB3-ROW spillover, in either case EB2&3-I will get benefit from the spillover.
Going forward we need to consider these 2 categories EB2 and EB3 together yielding a combined spillover to EB2-I and EB3-I which interns dictates the need of downward porting from EB2-I to EB3-I.

Thanks YTeleven for another great analysis. Hope your predictions for EB3 I come true and we start to see spill overs from EB3 ROW

abcx13

02-24-2016, 09:55 AM

Worry not, people. President Trump will kick us all out next year anyway. No more backlogs then!

gcq

02-24-2016, 10:44 AM

Worry not, people. President Trump will kick us all out next year anyway. No more backlogs then!
Sorry to dampen the spirit. If trump wins GOP primary, GOP is guaranteed to lose in general election ! So backlogs are here to stay :-)

HarepathekaIntezar

02-24-2016, 10:59 AM

This was as of Jan 12 so demand where dates were moved to feb 08. Either way only
Some demand would have cleared at that point, so net increase of 1500 doesn't amount o much porting.

So we wait for spillover and just 6k takes us to June 2009.

This inventory itself doesn't provide insight on spillover - for that we rely on recent co comments that there will be some from eb1 and eb2 row.

If we close year in summer 2009, next year will be more significantly from the trends yteleven pointed out - downgrades etc. I see deep 2010 by end of next year.

I agree that CO comments need to be taken into account when we get a Pending Inventory Report whose numbers are suspect, because DOS would know more about utilization than USCIS does. Even if EB1 SO is 3-4, that would be a welcome relief for EB2I.

As far as net increase of 1500 in a quarter, that is big deal bro. It projects out to 6K for the Year.

iatiam

02-24-2016, 11:16 AM

Keep the spirits up people, its darkest before dawn.

There are a few things I think all of us are overlooking. The first and foremost is economy. If the economy crashes and it looks like it will and EB3I inventory is reduced then EB2I has no were to go but forward.

This is the election year. No one will take drastic steps so the status quo will continue.

My wish is that as we get the next president elected next year, a lot of us with EADs would have gotten their GCs and a whole lot more would have filed for 485.

Amen

Iatiam

geterdone

02-24-2016, 11:32 AM

For EB2I there are roughly 1900 applications pending till end of 2007. These dates have been current for a long time. So are these new ported applications that keeps coming in or are they old applications stuck there for a long time?

akshaya8

02-24-2016, 12:01 PM

From Jan 2016 Pending Inventory
-------------EB2 ---------------EB3
ROW----19,466-----------------12,212
China----2,000------------------2,000 [allocation for next 3 Quarters]
Mexico----899-------------------1,398
Phi-------1,341------------------4,500 [ allocation in net 3 Q, every year PHI gets around 5K to meet 7% EB quota]
----------------------------------------------------
----------23,706--------------- 19,610
--------------------------------------------------------

Assuming next 3 Quarters we have 30K [ My guess it will be more] in EB2 & EB3 each

Assuming cases filed in 2016 [ EB2 @2000 and EB3 @1500] + Consular processing count match Inventory for OCT 2016.

EB2 Still gets around 6K this year, In addition to Already got in Oct-DEc'2015. Final movement PD may stop around April-May 2009.
EB3 Still gets around 10K this year, In addition to Already got in Oct-DEc'2015. Final movement PD may stop around April-May 2006.

I think this will be best optimal case.

EB3Iwaiting

02-24-2016, 01:20 PM

The main variable is larger proportion of EB2/EB3 in ROW domain - this is what is likely to throttle the movement of EB2I this year.

What I don't understand is EB3 ROW is practically current still what drives this larger ratio of EB2/EB3 in ROW.

That is because education around the world has changed but immigration laws in the US are still antique and has not kept up with the times. I too used to think that as EB3ROW gets current, there will be more EB3ROW filings and less EB2ROW filings. Looks like that is not the case as whoever qualifies in EB2 will still file under EB2 as it is also current. The thing is - more people in the world who come to work in the US or study here and then work qualify for EB2 now. There is just few filings in EB3. I think that is what keeps the EB2ROW ratio the way it is with respect to EB3ROW.

qesehmk

02-24-2016, 02:04 PM

My view is that it is matter of when most people come to realize that EB3 is now going to move faster than EB2. As of now that is not happening because EB2ROW is current.

People visiting this forum are generally educated in immigration matters. But quite a few people particularly ROW never need to visit any forums and get GCs pretty quickly.

That is because education around the world has changed but immigration laws in the US are still antique and has not kept up with the times. I too used to think that as EB3ROW gets current, there will be more EB3ROW filings and less EB2ROW filings. Looks like that is not the case as whoever qualifies in EB2 will still file under EB2 as it is also current. The thing is - more people in the world who come to work in the US or study here and then work qualify for EB2 now. There is just few filings in EB3. I think that is what keeps the EB2ROW ratio the way it is with respect to EB3ROW.

EB3Iwaiting

02-24-2016, 02:24 PM

People visiting this forum are generally educated in immigration matters. But quite a few people particularly ROW never need to visit any forums and get GCs pretty quickly.

Agree. If someone can file AOS immediately after their PERM is approved and gets GC once the application is processed, why will anyone bother about pending inventory and quotas etc.? Stuck in the backlog forced us to get educated on these matters and of course get to see the shenanigans of USCIS first hand. Why will ROWs ever want the country cap to go away?

After seeing the Jan inventory, what is your take on the spillovers and movement? Hardly any reduction in EB3I inventory shows that we may be seen the end of pre-July 2007 porting. All who could have ported must have already done so. The 2k porting must be primarily from 08 and 09.

Also, why is EB3 China not "current"? They have less than their yearly quota in the pending inventory. This forces me to believe that even if India has 3k left in inventory after FY 2016, CO will still not move dates past July 07.

EB3Iwaiting

02-24-2016, 02:33 PM

amulchandra

02-24-2016, 02:43 PM

March 2005 EB3 inventory went UP from 2093 to 2136!! How is that possible? Even if these March 05 people forgot to file AOS the last time, they could not have filed since March 05 has never been current since July 07. Did USCIS find these 43 applications hidden in a closet in their basement that they found in the last 3 months?
USCIS visa Bulletins now have two dates. Filing dates and Final action dates. Filing date for EB3 I is Jul 1st 2005. That means these are new 485s that were filed recently.

qesehmk

02-24-2016, 02:44 PM

After seeing the Jan inventory, what is your take on the spillovers and movement? Hardly any reduction in EB3I inventory shows that we may be seen the end of pre-July 2007 porting. All who could have ported must have already done so. The 2k porting must be primarily from 08 and 09.

Also, why is EB3 China not "current"? They have less than their yearly quota in the pending inventory. This forces me to believe that even if India has 3k left in inventory after FY 2016, CO will still not move dates past July 07.
EB3 here are my quick "opinions".

Spillover - I think none are in play yet.
Movement - I believe EB3 should have a good year including EB3India. Not so EB2. We may see EB5 retrogress.
Porting - Yes I agree that porting pre 2007 should come to dead end. However 2K per quarter is very high. If you think about it - DOS is making it equitable to EB3ROW folks to allow them sufficient time to get adjudicated after porting. However their view of visa supply may prove wrong. (in simpler words the filing date for EB2India may be over optimistic).
China EB3 - I haven't checked lately. I wonder if EB3C as large CP backlog. That may prevent it from being current.

kkruna

02-24-2016, 03:20 PM

One rather simplistic spreadsheet calc of "delta" between the two inventories indicating how many visas were issued, and how many added (by counting -ive and +ive separately):

890

(bear in mind that both "issued" and "added" can be higher)

EB3Iwaiting

02-24-2016, 03:23 PM

USCIS visa Bulletins now have two dates. Filing dates and Final action dates. Filing date for EB3 I is Jul 1st 2005. That means these are new 485s that were filed recently.

Not possible as USCIS have rendered the dates useless by not allowing anyone to file using Filing Dates.

anuprab

02-24-2016, 03:28 PM

yeah not possible. Makes me wonder if this is all really cooked up to justify something. I hope not.

amulchandra

02-24-2016, 03:40 PM

One question - from where you got the visas issues?

Raj0687

02-24-2016, 03:55 PM

I think USCIS did accept new cases based on filing date in the month of OCT/2015 and invalidated filing date there after.

kkruna

02-24-2016, 03:59 PM

One question - from where you got the visas issues?

If you are asking me, then I just calculated the delta between corresponding cells of the two inventories:
-ive means "issued"
+ive means "added"

Note that above will miss situations where both addition and subtraction is happening in the same cell. Therefore both numbers are on lower side and kind of represents "minimum"

taraldesai

02-24-2016, 06:13 PM

EB3 here are my quick "opinions".

Spillover - I think none are in play yet.
Movement - I believe EB3 should have a good year including EB3India. Not so EB2. We may see EB5 retrogress.
Porting - Yes I agree that porting pre 2007 should come to dead end. However 2K per quarter is very high. If you think about it - DOS is making it equitable to EB3ROW folks to allow them sufficient time to get adjudicated after porting. However their view of visa supply may prove wrong. (in simpler words the filing date for EB2India may be over optimistic).
China EB3 - I haven't checked lately. I wonder if EB3C as large CP backlog. That may prevent it from being current.

Well, this is my first post in any forum(Visa). I am EB3 Aug 2009 and never got chance to file anything and i am not telling this because i am frustrated well i am already, But after reading all this and i am not that expert in understanding all this quota etc, i am sure about one thing. There is no real algorithm or process that USCIS/ DOS follow. It's just their decision whom to give and whom not to.

amulchandra

02-24-2016, 06:22 PM

If you are asking me, then I just calculated the delta between corresponding cells of the two inventories:
-ive means "issued"
+ive means "added"

Note that above will miss situations where both addition and subtraction is happening in the same cell. Therefore both numbers are on lower side and kind of represents "minimum"

Got it. Thank you!

SV2007

02-24-2016, 08:56 PM

Well, this is my first post in any forum(Visa). I am EB3 Aug 2009 and never got chance to file anything and i am not telling this because i am frustrated well i am already, But after reading all this and i am not that expert in understanding all this quota etc, i am sure about one thing. There is no real algorithm or process that USCIS/ DOS follow. It's just their decision whom to give and whom not to.

Hang in there. Several of us are in the same boat. We must wait and see how things unfold between June and September of this year. YTEleven has come up with a wonderful explanation. There is a chance for EB3I inventory build up in 2017 after a decade.

vishnu

02-25-2016, 11:10 AM

dreamze

02-25-2016, 02:34 PM

I don't get one part... the prediction is for upto 3 months monthly movement thru June...

if spillover is only applied from june (which CO confirmed in comments), then why would there be any movement thru june... wouldn't it just stop here and move in june... why predict upto 3 months? I cant see any scenario where dates would move further without spillover?

You are absolutely right. Both statements - "spillover is only applied from june" and "upto 3 months monthly movement thru June" are contradictory and both cannot be true at the same time. If we see any movement in next bulletin that means they already started applying SO from next bulletin.

dreamze

02-25-2016, 02:36 PM

You are absolutely right. Both statements - "spillover is only applied from june" and "upto 3 months monthly movement thru June" are contradictory and both cannot be true at the same time. If we see any movement in next bulletin that means they already started applying SO from next bulletin.

Zevrap

02-25-2016, 11:12 PM

EB3 here are my quick "opinions".

Spillover - I think none are in play yet.
Movement - I believe EB3 should have a good year including EB3India. Not so EB2. We may see EB5 retrogress.
Porting - Yes I agree that porting pre 2007 should come to dead end. However 2K per quarter is very high. If you think about it - DOS is making it equitable to EB3ROW folks to allow them sufficient time to get adjudicated after porting. However their view of visa supply may prove wrong. (in simpler words the filing date for EB2India may be over optimistic).
China EB3 - I haven't checked lately. I wonder if EB3C as large CP backlog. That may prevent it from being current.

Based on the limited available eb row approval data for last 3 months, can you tell if this year will be a better one for eb2i.
Thamk

HarepathekaIntezar

02-26-2016, 07:11 PM

Based on the limited available eb row approval data for last 3 months, can you tell if this year will be a better one for eb2i.
Thamk

Dude, that is exactly what the post is about - that EB2I is screwed this year!! Which part of it don't you understand?

Zevrap

02-26-2016, 11:44 PM

Dude, that is exactly what the post is about - that EB2I is screwed this year!! Which part of it don't you understand?

If I were to understand I would not had asked.
All I want to know is, will this year eb2i receive 7000 visas?

HarepathekaIntezar

02-27-2016, 10:30 AM

If I were to understand I would not had asked.
All I want to know is, will this year eb2i receive 7000 visas?

Well, there is a possibility of that happening. Given the demand analysis that I saw in another forum that one user Chatpata123 did for EB3, if I use the same logic, the EB2ROW demand has been slowing down from May 2015 (possibly because ROW's stopped upgrading from EB3 to EB2, since EB3 also advanced fast last year).

But if 7000 visas are issued, you have to note that around 10 - 15% of that will go to CP Cases, which does not reflect in USCIS Inventory. The other imponderable is the porters from EB3. So, if you are using that number to predict if you will get GC, it may not work out.

But you will have a clear picture in July for sure. So just relax till July.

vishnu

03-02-2016, 03:23 PM

Hi Spec

Do these predictions (which you made early Feb) change significantly with the published inventory?

As always, please take the following with a pinch of salt. It is a best effort, but the variables mean it can never be truly accurate and has wide error margins.

FY2016

EB1

Even though approvals look slightly lower at this stage, I expect EB1 to use its allocation, or close to it.

EB4

I-360 receipts and approvals have exploded, probably due to use of the SIJ subcategory by unaccompanied minors. Approvals in FY2015 were 26.4k compared to 16.9k in FY2014.

I don't expect any spare visas from EB4.

EB5

EB5-China remains retrogressed and the backlog is increasing, so no spare visas from EB5.

Family Based Visas from FY2015

The published data (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf) suggests that there will be only a few spare FB visas available to EB in FY2016.

EB2

Worldwide

If EB2-ROW approvals continue at a steady state, then they could use c. 25k of their 29k allocation. EB2-M should give FA along with some from EB2-P.

India

From such a long way out, the prospects for FY2016 for EB2-I look moderate, depending on your point of view.

At this point, it looks as if EB2-I might have 10-11k total visas available. That would be in line with the July 2009 filing date accepted by USCIS for a couple of months at the beginning of the FY.

EB3

India

An excellent chance of FA to EB3-I in FY2016. I can see EB3-I progressing into 2006.

Spectator

03-02-2016, 04:44 PM

Hi Spec

Do these predictions (which you made early Feb) change significantly with the published inventory?In the grand scheme of things - probably not.

EB2-ROW is a bit higher currently, but EB1 is lower.

The loss of FB visas is a big blow. 11k is a top end estimate based on the data available at the time.

The Inventory was exactly as I expected.

I'd stress again that the EB2-I Inventory has never dropped by the number of actual approvals in a FY, so it doesn't say that the date will move to one that represents that number in the Inventory, plus there have been approvals from October to January (although the number is uncertain).

vishnu

03-02-2016, 06:59 PM

In the grand scheme of things - probably not.

EB2-ROW is a bit higher currently, but EB1 is lower.

The loss of FB visas is a big blow. 11k is a top end estimate based on the data available at the time.

The Inventory was exactly as I expected.

I'd stress again that the EB2-I Inventory has never dropped by the number of actual approvals in a FY, so it doesn't say that the date will move to one that represents that number in the Inventory, plus there have been approvals from October to January (although the number is uncertain).

Thanks spec... So I take that to mean that the 10,000 visas should get us beyond the date that would currently add up to 10k as per the inventory?

Spectator

03-02-2016, 10:12 PM

Thanks spec... So I take that to mean that the 10,000 visas should get us beyond the date that would currently add up to 10k as per the inventory?Other way round. The Inventory will reduce less than the number of approvals made.

For example, in FY2014 (last figures available), actual EB2-I approvals were 23,527. The USCIS Inventory reduced by only 12,276 between October 2013 and October 2014.

The USCIS Inventory for EB2-I usually only drops about 50-60% of actual approvals. It might be higher this year since more porting cases may have been in the Inventory as EB2.

Spectator

03-07-2016, 12:10 PM

Table V (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2015AnnualReport/FY15AnnualReport-TableV.pdf) of the DOS Visa Statistics has been published.

You can find a breakdown of the statistics here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2623-FY2015-DOS-Visa-Report?p=57439#post57439).

EB1-I received 12,253 visas in FY2015
EB2-I received 7,235 visas in FY2015
EB3-I received 7,026 visas in FY2015

EB4 used their entire allocation.

EB5 used less than their allocation, despite EB5-China being retrogressed.
EB1 used more than their allocation by using the spare EB5 visas.

There was no Fall Down from EB1 - all the SO came from within EB2.

In FB, India exceeded the 7% limit. 65% of approvals were in FB4 and 87% of approvals were in FB3 & FB4.

EB3Iwaiting

03-07-2016, 12:31 PM

Table V (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2015AnnualReport/FY15AnnualReport-TableV.pdf) of the DOS Visa Statistics has been published.

You can find a breakdown of the statistics here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2623-FY2015-DOS-Visa-Report?p=57439#post57439).

EB1-I received 12,253 visas in FY2015
EB2-I received 7,235 visas in FY2015
EB3-I received 7,026 visas in FY2015

Thanks Spec. I was going over the totals and it looks like EB2 got 4.5k visas extra and EB3 got 4.5k less. I thought the totals cannot exceed 40k. Are those all porting numbers from EB3I that were counted against EB2I and not EB3I? That seems to be the only explanation for the grand totals. What do you think?

Spectator

03-07-2016, 12:38 PM

Thanks Spec. I was going over the totals and it looks like EB2 got 4.5k visas extra and EB3 got 4.5k less. I thought the totals cannot exceed 40k. Are those all porting numbers from EB3I that were counted against EB2I and not EB3I? That seems to be the only explanation for the grand totals. What do you think?The total allocation for EB in FY2015 was 144,796 so 28.6% is 41,412.

EB2 can then also receive any spillover from EB4, EB5 and EB1. There's also the question of underuse in FB allowing more use in EB - it's a bit complicated.

Actual visas issued was 143,955 which is 841 less than the allocation - a wastage of 0.6% which is not bad (EB has been overallocated for the last 2 years). EB3 wastage of nearly 4k was very disappointing, so to a certain extent EB2 did receive more at the expense of EB3.

EB3Iwaiting

03-07-2016, 12:59 PM

The total allocation for EB in FY2015 was 144,796 so 28.6% is 41,412.

EB2 can then also receive any spillover from EB4, EB5 and EB1. There's also the question of underuse in FB allowing more use in EB - it's a bit complicated.

Actual visas issued was 143,955 which is 841 less than the allocation - a wastage of 0.6% which is not bad (EB has been overallocated for the last 2 years). EB3 wastage of nearly 4k was very disappointing, so to a certain extent EB2 did receive more at the expense of EB3.

So, EB3Is not only get hosed by the Spillover law and CP cases from P but now overall EB3 quota getting decreased at the expense of EB2 quota getting increased. So, porting had no positive effect on EB3I. EB3Is just cannot catch a break.

qesehmk

03-07-2016, 01:37 PM

....but now overall EB3 quota getting decreased at the expense of EB2 quota getting increased.

That's not exactly what Spec said. S/He is just trying to put an explanation on something that really has no explanation.

What DoS did here is bending if not breaking the visa allocation rules.

EB3Iwaiting

03-07-2016, 02:27 PM

That's not exactly what Spec said. S/He is just trying to put an explanation on something that really has no explanation.

What DoS did here is bending if not breaking the visa allocation rules.

Thanks Q. I understand that Spec is simply trying to make sense as to what happened. But EB3 getting 4k less GCs should never happen specially since EB3I is the most backlogged EB category of all. EB2I should not get more than 41412 and EB3I should not get less than that.

qesehmk

03-07-2016, 02:50 PM

Thanks Q. I understand that Spec is simply trying to make sense as to what happened. But EB3 getting 4k less GCs should never happen specially since EB3I is the most backlogged EB category of all. EB2I should not get more than 41412 and EB3I should not get less than that.
It clearly is unfair towards EB3 that they received less than the full quota. Whereas EB2 received more than what was legally possible. EB2 can receive more than just their own quota because EB4/5/1 can give EB2 some extra visas. But this year as you can see they received 3100 more (from godknowswhere) when they were only supposed to receive 2500 (what spec called "technical spillover).

Again - this is wholly unfair - and should be challenged by EB3-I folks.

Thanks a ton to Spec who has published an outstanding summary of table V from DOS 2015 report.

Spectator

03-07-2016, 03:17 PM

I've also updated this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/193-SOFAD-Spillover-Actuals-FY2008-Onwards?p=9850#post9850) which shows historic allocations / SO from FY2008 to date.

amulchandra

03-07-2016, 04:44 PM

It clearly is unfair towards EB3 that they received less than the full quota. Whereas EB2 received more than what was legally possible. EB2 can receive more than just their own quota because EB4/5/1 can give EB2 some extra visas. But this year as you can see they received 3100 more (from godknowswhere) when they were only supposed to receive 2500 (what spec called "technical spillover).

Again - this is wholly unfair - and should be challenged by EB3-I folks.

Thanks a ton to Spec who has published an outstanding summary of table V from DOS 2015 report.

Now I understand why DHS moved the cut off date to Dec 22 2004 in Sept 2015 visa bulletin for EB3 I. It was USCIS who messed up EB3 processing again. No wonder Eb3 I is stuck forever. Hope they make up for it this year.

anuprab

03-08-2016, 09:09 AM

It clearly is unfair towards EB3 that they received less than the full quota. Whereas EB2 received more than what was legally possible. EB2 can receive more than just their own quota because EB4/5/1 can give EB2 some extra visas. But this year as you can see they received 3100 more (from godknowswhere) when they were only supposed to receive 2500 (what spec called "technical spillover).

Again - this is wholly unfair - and should be challenged by EB3-I folks.

Thanks a ton to Spec who has published an outstanding summary of table V from DOS 2015 report.

who, where and how do we challenge this Q..the Visagate lawsuit is pending despite all the hoopla and not to mention the resources it has...

qesehmk

03-08-2016, 09:36 AM

who, where and how do we challenge this Q..the Visagate lawsuit is pending despite all the hoopla and not to mention the resources it has...
anuprab this is the fight of backlogged candidates particularly from India. I really don't care about legal basis or not but basically people are discriminated based on their country of origin and that should be challenged. All other issues like DoS wasting visas etc are peripheral.

People should go and fight it in American courts. You will be surprised how much you will be heard. But the backlogged folks must realize it is their fight. Nobody else is going to fight it for them.

Spectator

03-08-2016, 09:40 AM

who, where and how do we challenge this Q..the Visagate lawsuit is pending despite all the hoopla and not to mention the resources it has...Chinese EB3 applicants have already gone down this route with a very similar claim and lost. The case was Li versus Kerry and spanned 2010 to 2013.

Here's the appeal judgement (http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-9th-circuit/1625665.html).

qesehmk

03-08-2016, 10:02 AM

EB3Iwaiting

03-08-2016, 10:07 AM

Chinese EB3 applicants have already gone down this route with a very similar claim and lost. The case was L****ersus Kerry and spanned 2010 to 2013.

Here's the appeal judgement (http://caselaw.findlaw.com/us-9th-circuit/1625665.html).

In the Silva v. Bell case, the federal government agreed with plaintiffs that “relief, in the form of a program to recapture and reissue the wrongfully issued visa numbers, is appropriate.” Visas were wrongfully issued in another category and court asked the agency to correct the mistake.

http://openjurist.org/605/f2d/978

In Silva, the court ordered the legacy Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) to recapture immigrant visa numbers that were misallocated; the agency had erred by counting the set-aside immigrant visa numbers of Cuban refugees against the visa quota for all nationals of the Western Hemisphere between 1968 and 1976. Additionally, in Galvez, the court found that the aggrieved plaintiffs had been denied LPR status for which they were eligible and ordered the U.S. Secretary of State to issue visa numbers that would be charged against the remaining visa number allotment from the prior year. According to the Galvez court, the “INS has a statutory obligation to issue visas to qualified applicants to the full extent of the annual quota limits established by Congress.”

8 U.S.C. 1156 - Unused immigrant visas

"If an immigrant having an immigrant visa is denied admission to the United States and removed, or does not apply for admission before the expiration of the validity of his visa, or if an alien having an immigrant visa issued to him as a preference immigrant is found not to be a preference immigrant, an immigrant visa or a preference immigrant visa, as the case may be, may be issued in lieu thereof to another qualified alien."
Congress did not specify what would happen if a visa is wasted by the agency's inefficiency, probably because Congress did not expect any visas to go wasted, specially when there is enough demand. Therefore, agency inefficiency and apathy should not be allowed to defeat legislative intent. Unfortunately, that is exactly what happens.

abcx13

03-08-2016, 11:06 AM

The whole idea of country quota is discriminatory. Challenge that as point #1.

#2 - It is such a shame for bright talented folks (or anybody) to be used as slaves in the American companies. H1B is slavery. GC backlogs facilitate slavery.

Backlogged candidates must understand that path to victory will go through failures. A lot of you have spent enough time that you should have learnt about American values of freedom and justice and the right to pursue happiness.

I agree with challenging the country quotas on the grounds that they are discriminatory. But I don't know if that would be a valid legal argument. Does anyone know? I've posted on multiple legal blogs asking the same question but no one has ever responded.

EDIT: Also, the decision reached in the Galvez case (which is now very old) contradicts the Kerry case as it pertains to recapture. In the Kerry case, the courts said that there is no authority by which USCIS can recapture visas. (Though maybe there is such authority with DoS?)

qesehmk

03-08-2016, 12:09 PM

I agree with challenging the country quotas on the grounds that they are discriminatory. But I don't know if that would be a valid legal argument. Does anyone know? I've posted on multiple legal blogs asking the same question but no one has ever responded.

Sorry to state the obvious .. but nobody else is going to do it for you and other backlogged folks. This can not be a pass time activity. This will require serious commitment. My experience is that people tend to complain about backlogs and how their life is miserable etc but at the end of the day do not have the courage to do anything about it. That's why we have dumb organization asking donations and probably receiving it for making a show about advocacy. Advocacy is cosmetics if at all. Immigration is a much more strategic issue for DoS than you think. USCIS are just paper pushers. It's the DoS that has interest in keeping country quota not USCIS. DoS is not Evil. They have their legitimate objectives but the backlogged community must stand up and highlight the gross injustice. Anyway ... my last on this topic. I already got my GC long time back. I am just highlighting the need to do something beyond advocacy. Take my advice for what it's worth :)

Spectator

03-08-2016, 12:30 PM

In the Silva v. Bell case, the federal government agreed with plaintiffs that “relief, in the form of a program to recapture and reissue the wrongfully issued visa numbers, is appropriate.” Visas were wrongfully issued in another category and court asked the agency to correct the mistake.

http://openjurist.org/605/f2d/978

In Silva, the court ordered the legacy Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) to recapture immigrant visa numbers that were misallocated; the agency had erred by counting the set-aside immigrant visa numbers of Cuban refugees against the visa quota for all nationals of the Western Hemisphere between 1968 and 1976. Additionally, in Galvez, the court found that the aggrieved plaintiffs had been denied LPR status for which they were eligible and ordered the U.S. Secretary of State to issue visa numbers that would be charged against the remaining visa number allotment from the prior year. According to the Galvez court, the “INS has a statutory obligation to issue visas to qualified applicants to the full extent of the annual quota limits established by Congress.”

8 U.S.C. 1156 - Unused immigrant visas

"If an immigrant having an immigrant visa is denied admission to the United States and removed, or does not apply for admission before the expiration of the validity of his visa, or if an alien having an immigrant visa issued to him as a preference immigrant is found not to be a preference immigrant, an immigrant visa or a preference immigrant visa, as the case may be, may be issued in lieu thereof to another qualified alien."
Congress did not specify what would happen if a visa is wasted by the agency's inefficiency, probably because Congress did not expect any visas to go wasted, specially when there is enough demand. Therefore, agency inefficiency and apathy should not be allowed to defeat legislative intent. Unfortunately, that is exactly what happens.
In the L****s Kerry case, the judges at various levels rejected the Silva analogy for what seem fairly clear reasons.

In Silva, the Cuban refugees were originally awarded visas from a preference category allocation. Subsequently, it was determined that they were not preference immigrants.

The law, under INA 206 (8 USC 1156), specifically deals with this situation and those visas that were actually issued erroneously to non preference immigrants may be reissued to preference immigrants.

The EB3 situation is not the same. It involves the non issuance of visas up to the full allocation and possibly the erroneous issuance of visas to a different preference category. Neither case is dealt with under INA 206, nor is there any other law that allows issuance of visas up to the statutory limit after the event, or recapture of previous visas to do so.

In fact, if EB3 had extra visas issued up to their limit, then to stay within the overall FY2015 EB limit, some EB2 approvals might have to be revoked.

I've spoken about the raw deal EB3 has been getting for years - EB3-ROW would have been current some time ago and EB3-I would have benefited from fall across within EB3 for much longer. I think the only viable solution within the existing constraints is to issue all EB3 visas by no later than the end of August and leave September purely to deal with consular returns. That would mean moving the EB3-I dates forward slightly earlier than CO has been prepared to do so up to date - something most people think should be done anyway.

This is my last on the subject.

geterdone

03-08-2016, 12:43 PM

Sorry to state the obvious .. but nobody else is going to do it for you and other backlogged folks. This can not be a pass time activity. This will require serious commitment. My experience is that people tend to complain about backlogs and how their life is miserable etc but at the end of the day do not have the courage to do anything about it. That's why we have dumb organization asking donations and probably receiving it for making a show about advocacy. Advocacy is cosmetics if at all. Immigration is a much more strategic issue for DoS than you think. USCIS are just paper pushers. It's the DoS that has interest in keeping country quota not USCIS. DoS is not Evil. They have their legitimate objectives but the backlogged community must stand up and highlight the gross injustice. Anyway ... my last on this topic. I already got my GC long time back. I am just highlighting the need to do something beyond advocacy. Take my advice for what it's worth :)

I am no expert in this but from what I understood this cannot be challenged in the court. I think there is something in the law that only congress can do something.

I was also going through the manual for I-485 few days back and I saw a statement that no discrimination based on country of origin will be done and below that they have the numerical limitation explained. I think they have worded it such that proving discrimination is difficult.

Again I may be wrong

abcx13

03-08-2016, 02:08 PM

Sorry to state the obvious .. but nobody else is going to do it for you and other backlogged folks. This can not be a pass time activity. This will require serious commitment. My experience is that people tend to complain about backlogs and how their life is miserable etc but at the end of the day do not have the courage to do anything about it. That's why we have dumb organization asking donations and probably receiving it for making a show about advocacy. Advocacy is cosmetics if at all. Immigration is a much more strategic issue for DoS than you think. USCIS are just paper pushers. It's the DoS that has interest in keeping country quota not USCIS. DoS is not Evil. They have their legitimate objectives but the backlogged community must stand up and highlight the gross injustice. Anyway ... my last on this topic. I already got my GC long time back. I am just highlighting the need to do something beyond advocacy. Take my advice for what it's worth :)

Well, I'm not a lawyer and don't intend to quit my day job, hence why I was asking other people! Anyway, I think the statute is clearly discriminatory but it's probably legal since it's survived for so long...and arguably it's not discriminatory since each country gets the same allocation.

Pappu and the others there have gone crazy. The comments from Siskind and Mehta clearly support our position...what a bunch of childish idiots. Oh, and their brief had a number of typos and poor grammar.

vyruss

03-08-2016, 03:25 PM

Well, I'm not a lawyer and don't intend to quit my day job, hence why I was asking other people! Anyway, I think the statute is clearly discriminatory but it's probably legal since it's survived for so long...and arguably it's not discriminatory since each country gets the same allocation.
.

I am not sure if something is non-discriminatory since it survived for a long time. The mere bucketing of people by country of origin should make it discriminatory. Imagine a law that says for a certain job category we will interview 2 whites and 2 blacks. Because we interviewed equal number of whites and blacks it is non-discriminatory. To make it non-discriminatory the broad brush says equal opportunity for all races. If you extrapolate this to the employment based immigration (say H1B for simplicity) is non-discriminatory because apparently the said job was open to person of every race (assuming legal immigrant) and a person from every origin. Where it becomes tricky is the EB based green card. Can it be argued that Green Card is a benefit that should be allowed to all legal immigrants who meet a certain pre-requisite (like a global priority date cut-off) and because the benefit should be distributed to all races that are eligible, it must be equitable and hence the country cap must be eliminated. On this front the immigration lawyers will not be of help is my opinion as they would rather milk this cash-cow of backlog perpetually.

mechanical13

03-08-2016, 10:00 PM

I am not sure if something is non-discriminatory.... of help is my opinion as they would rather milk this cash-cow of backlog perpetually.

Several of us on this forum looked into this several months back and evaluated whether there is any merit in challenging the per-country-limits in court.

The obstacle we found was what is called 'plenary powers of congress', and the 'plenary power doctrine'. The short answer is that we could try to challenge the per-country limits as discriminatory in court, but the courts could very well say that it is not in their power to decide since 'immigration law' in its entirety comes under plenary powers of congress.

The folks who wrote the constitution were idealists, but they were also biased in their own way. It is my understanding that they gave plenary powers to congress to decide on immigration matters precisely because they wanted those 'inside the country' to decide who gets to stay and who gets to not stay.

AND.. if the popularity of Trump is any indication....there is no doubt that there is wide spread anti-immigrant sentiment in this country, and congress is merely reflecting that sentiment.

gcvijay

03-09-2016, 11:11 AM

MOTION TO DISMISS filed. Will this have a positive impact on the filing date movement for INDIA and other countries

https://t.co/HANQQzEktO

gcq

03-09-2016, 11:58 AM

Several of us on this forum looked into this several months back and evaluated whether there is any merit in challenging the per-country-limits in court.

The obstacle we found was what is called 'plenary powers of congress', and the 'plenary power doctrine'. The short answer is that we could try to challenge the per-country limits as discriminatory in court, but the courts could very well say that it is not in their power to decide since 'immigration law' in its entirety comes under plenary powers of congress.

The folks who wrote the constitution were idealists, but they were also biased in their own way. It is my understanding that they gave plenary powers to congress to decide on immigration matters precisely because they wanted those 'inside the country' to decide who gets to stay and who gets to not stay.

AND.. if the popularity of Trump is any indication....there is no doubt that there is wide spread anti-immigrant sentiment in this country, and congress is merely reflecting that sentiment.

mechanic,
That was my exact thought process when I considered this. Country quota is discriminatory and against constitution's spirit, but INA legalized it. Though congress has 'plenary powers' , it doesn't mean that they can act against the constitution or its intend. That is where supreme court has to make a decision. Unless this issue is brought up before supreme court, we will never know whether country cap can be challenged. One of supreme courts role is to validate congress laws against constitution.

qesehmk

03-09-2016, 12:24 PM

mechanic,
That was my exact thought process when I considered this. Country quota is discriminatory and against constitution's spirit, but INA legalized it. Though congress has 'plenary powers' , it doesn't mean that they can act against the constitution or its intend. That is where supreme court has to make a decision. Unless this issue is brought up before supreme court, we will never know whether country cap can be challenged. One of supreme courts role is to validate congress laws against constitution.

Thanks GCQ and mechanic.

I think backlogged candidates must bring this issue serious visibility and let the courts ponder over this topic of how stupid and discriminatory the quotas are. Forget the plenary powers and all other legal jargon. Everybody knows in their heart that such kind of quotas are discriminatory.

This country is not run by idiots. They don't follow the law to the letter. There is a great tradition of following the law in its spirit too. So make an effort. Take small steps. But first organize.

Spectator

03-09-2016, 12:25 PM

The April 2016 VB has been published https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-april-2016.html

EB2-I moves to 08NOV08 (3 weeks)
EB3-I moves to 08AUG04 (3 weeks)

mfd1402

03-09-2016, 01:42 PM

Spectator

03-09-2016, 02:01 PM

As per Q blog http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2016-vs-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011

EB2ROW in 2015 got approx 29K visas , not sure how that is possible I thought the whole reason why EB2I did not move much was because there was a surge in eb2row demand 29K for eb2row seems to suggest approx 6K SO for Eb2I unless I am missing smomething .... Spec pls explainWhat's to explain.

Actual spillover available was :

THEORETICAL SPILLOVER
EB1 ---------- (578)
EB2-M ------- 1,534
EB2-P --------- 679
EB2-ROW ------- 359
EB4 ------------ 10
EB5 ----------- 517
TOTAL ------- 2,521

Taking EB2-ROW, they had an allocation of 29,816 (41,412 - (4*2,899))
EB2-ROW actually used 29,457 visas, which was 359 less than their allocation.

EB1 basically used all the spillover from EB4 and EB5. There should not have been any SO from EB5.

Most spillover came from EB2-Mexico.

EB2-I received 4,336 more visas than their initial allocation of 2,899 for a total of 7,235. That's more than the available SO. It can't have come from FB because India used all their FB allocation (unlike China). It was an over allocation which was ultimately balanced because EB3 could not reach their allocation limit and some visas were wasted.

7,235 may not seem many, but frankly, it could have been under 5,000 if all allocations were made correctly and to the fullest extent.

Let's also not forget that in FY2015, 4.8k extra visas were available to EB from underuse of FB the previous FY.

Without those, it's likely that EB2-I would have received 4k total approvals.
EB1 and EB4 probably would have had some Countries retrogressed.
It was a very fine line and the extra FB visas made a huge difference.

In FY2016, only 0.3k FB visas are available.

EB3Iwaiting

03-09-2016, 02:41 PM

7,235 may not seem many, but frankly, it could have been under 5,000 if all allocations were made correctly and to the fullest extent.

Visas were taken out of EB3 and given to EB2. Is it because EB2I was over allocated in the beginning? Will explain the non movement of EB2I in the last 2 months and also the retrogression of EB3I in October.

vyruss

03-09-2016, 02:43 PM

zenmaster

03-09-2016, 02:46 PM

EB2 is the new EB3 :) i guess wait for good movement continues until last quarter

Jagan01

03-09-2016, 02:49 PM

harapatta

03-09-2016, 03:30 PM

Visa Bulletin for April is out ...

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin.html

vishnu

03-09-2016, 04:12 PM

spec: you don't think CO is already applying spillover do you? he is likely just using EB2 allocation so far..?

gcy2k07

03-09-2016, 05:28 PM

spec: I would like to know your thoughts on the following -
- the pending inventory from January increased most likely because of porting. Since most of the increase is in 2008 which EB3I never reached, these cannot be interfile cases - correct?
- in this case, these would be new upgrade I485 applications which should take many months to process. Then would be be a good assumption that these cases will not eat up the spillover this year?
- also, isn't it good for long pending cases that the dates are not moved until the last quarter because this would reduce the porting applications?
Thanks!

Spectator

03-10-2016, 09:16 AM

spec: you don't think CO is already applying spillover do you? he is likely just using EB2 allocation so far..?

Possibly not to date, but the dates probably can't move any further without doing so.

spec: I would like to know your thoughts on the following -
- the pending inventory from January increased most likely because of porting. Since most of the increase is in 2008 which EB3I never reached, these cannot be interfile cases - correct?

They can't be interfiling cases in the sense that there is not an existing I-485 under EB3. The I-485 submitted would be their first one and under EB2.

- in this case, these would be new upgrade I485 applications which should take many months to process. Then would be be a good assumption that these cases will not eat up the spillover this year?

Yes, it will take some time to adjudicate, but they have 9-12 months of the FY for that to happen. It's likely those cases in the January 2016 USCIS Inventory can be approved this FY.

- also, isn't it good for long pending cases that the dates are not moved until the last quarter because this would reduce the porting applications?
Thanks!

It would reduce the ability of porters with later PD to file an I-485 under EB2 who haven't done so to date. I'm not sure it will make much difference because, in Oct/Nov 2015, people could file an I-485 with a PD up to July 2009. There's nearly 1K of new applications in 2009 up to July. There's plenty of time for those to be preadjudicated before the end of the FY and they will have valid Medical Reports. Currently, the Final Action Date for EB2-I doesn't seem likely to exceed that date.

Silent_Jedi

03-11-2016, 03:03 PM

I am not sure if something is non-discriminatory since it survived for a long time. The mere bucketing of people by country of origin should make it discriminatory. Imagine a law that says for a certain job category we will interview 2 whites and 2 blacks. Because we interviewed equal number of whites and blacks it is non-discriminatory. To make it non-discriminatory the broad brush says equal opportunity for all races. If you extrapolate this to the employment based immigration (say H1B for simplicity) is non-discriminatory because apparently the said job was open to person of every race (assuming legal immigrant) and a person from every origin. Where it becomes tricky is the EB based green card. Can it be argued that Green Card is a benefit that should be allowed to all legal immigrants who meet a certain pre-requisite (like a global priority date cut-off) and because the benefit should be distributed to all races that are eligible, it must be equitable and hence the country cap must be eliminated. On this front the immigration lawyers will not be of help is my opinion as they would rather milk this cash-cow of backlog perpetually.

I am totally in tune with your argument. Country quota is a legally sanctioned discriminatory feature of the immigration laws. In absolute moral sense it is discriminatory but in the US legal sense it is not. Congress has passed such a law. What to say! But the Diversity Visa (lottery) is the worst indiscriminate thing they have thought of and none of the politicians are talking about it. It purportedly makes the immigrant population diverse but then they want geographic diversity in employment-based candidates. It doesn't make any sense why they want to dual-track diversity concept in immigration.

whereismygc

03-11-2016, 03:04 PM

In this interest of this group we are publishing this information here.

While updating the forecast at WhereismyGC we realized that during 2015 there may have been an additional wastage of 4000 across EB23IC. Here is the rationale.

1. The combined visa approvals across EB23IC was approx 14261.
2. The combined inventory reduction across EB23IC was 10658.

Thus there are 3603 visa numbers that are assigned to cases that we can't account for.

The reason we think they can't be accounted for is because EB23IC categories are closed. These categories generally will port to each other (mostly 3 to 2) but not anywhere else. There may be 10-20-30 people who may port to ROW by virtue of marriage to an ROW spouse etc.

So the question is where did 3600 visas go?

The only logical explanation that we can think of is that perhaps those are the porting cases from EB3 I to EB2. We wonder if it is likely that those 3600 cases received 2 visas each one for EB3 case and one for EB2 case.

We do not know. It might be worthwhile for interested people to look into and pursue some action. If our fears are true then it would be such a pitty to have those visas wasted when EB23I is chronically backlogged.

Update
There were 257 EB CP approvals for India in 2015 for EB2-3 categories. Thus the number of unaccounted cases to explain drops from 3600 to approx 3350.

Whether one looks Q over Q or compare look at Y over Y 485 inventory - one is going to arrive at the same number. We prefer Y over Y approach.

In terms of what can be done - guys we leave it to you. WhereismyGC is a business. We only highlighted this issue in public interest of EB-I community.

insane_yogi

03-11-2016, 04:52 PM

vyruss

03-11-2016, 04:54 PM

In this interest of this group we are publishing this information here.

While updating the forecast at WhereismyGC we realized that during 2015 there may have been an additional wastage of 4000 across EB23IC. Here is the rationale.

Thus there are 3603 visa numbers that are assigned to cases that we can't account for.

So the question is where did 3600 visas go?

This is a painful conclusion Q. Thanks for bringing this information to light. What are the avenues that can be explored to shed more light on this issue?

Spectator

03-11-2016, 05:04 PM

I think it is a bit dangerous (certainly difficult) to make any conclusions based on the USCIS Inventory. That only represents an incomplete snapshot, even for India. It only shows net numbers. Addition mask reductions and vice versa.

Receiving 2 visas would be an extreme and unlikely case IMHO.

First, there would have to be 2 independent I-485 applications (1 each in each category), since only one visa can be allocated per approved I-485 application. That would limit the cases to pre August 2007 PD since no EB3-I case could have been submitted post that date.

Secondly, those applications would have to have remained unconsolidated, which means they would probably have to have different A-numbers.

And thirdly, both cases would have to have been independently adjudicated and approved.

It is not a "closed system" because EB3-I have applicants with approved I-140 and PDs later than July 2007 who can retain the PD for an EB2 I-485 application. Those applicants would not (and cannot) be shown in the Inventory under EB3-I.

It's much more likely that missing numbers relate to post July 2007 porters. They would never have appeared in the EB3-I Inventory, so there could be no reduction. Nor would they necessarily appear in the EB2-I Inventory if they were approved before USCIS could include the case in an Inventory.

I'm not claiming that's anywhere close to a perfect explanation, but it is much more likely than the 2 visa theory. I would be have far been more surprised had the reduction in the USCIS Inventory equaled (or even been remotely close to) the actual approval numbers.

Edit:-

If I look at the reductions on a quarterly basis, then I only see a difference of 1k or less based on reductions against the actual DOS figures. Given the net nature of the figures, that's closer than I would have thought.

Edit:-

I went through it a bit more thoroughly :

For Dates that were Current.

------------ Inventory --- Actual ------ Diff
EB2 Change --- (6,125) --- 7,235 ---- 1,110 ***
EB3 Change --- (8,063) --- 7,026 --- (1,037)

Total ------- (14,188) -- 14,261 ------- 73

*** (6,125) reduction for EB2 includes reduction in EB3 for dates that were not current under EB3 (2,742).

Using a YoY approach is fundamentally flawed - the only advantage is speed and simplicity.

a) A YoY approach cannot properly account for COD movement during the FY and therefore the reductions outside the COD. This is particularly true if there are large movements late in the FY.

b) Additions to the Inventory later in the FY will mask reductions apparent in previous periods using a QoQ approach. This leads to underestimating the reductions.

Even using a QoQ approach is imperfect, since it is still susceptible to the net nature of the USCIS Inventories. The best that can be done is to look at months with reductions only and consider months with an addition as a zero reduction. That's not necessarily correct, because there still could have been reductions in that month, but they are masked by higher additions than are apparent from the net increase.

There were 102 EB2-I and 155 EB3-I Consular approvals that would not be part of the USCIS Inventory.

jimmys

03-15-2016, 04:19 PM

Hi All- Wanted to get your feedback on my specific case. Please move to appropriate thread if required.
i have a EB2 application with Oct 2011 priority date (currently on H1). My sister a US passport holder is willing to sponsor my GC.
1. Since Iam already in US, how soon will i get an EAD and then GC?
2. Lets say i get an EAD in few months through sponsorship by my sister, will i be able to keep my EB2 application priority date?
3. What options will i have since i understand getting a GC through family based i.e. FB4 might take atleast 8 - 10 years to be current.

insane Yogi

2. Lets say i get an EAD in few months through sponsorship by my sister, will i be able to keep my EB2 application priority date?

If you have approved I-140, yes, you can retain your earliest priority date.

Spectator

03-15-2016, 04:51 PM

Hi All- Wanted to get your feedback on my specific case. Please move to appropriate thread if required.
i have a EB2 application with Oct 2011 priority date (currently on H1). My sister a US passport holder is willing to sponsor my GC.
1. Since Iam already in US, how soon will i get an EAD and then GC?
2. Lets say i get an EAD in few months through sponsorship by my sister, will i be able to keep my EB2 application priority date?
3. What options will i have since i understand getting a GC through family based i.e. FB4 might take atleast 8 - 10 years to be current.

insane YogiI'm not sure how you think you are going to get an EAD "in a few months through sponsorship by your sister".

Your PD for the FB4 case will be the date the I-130 is received by USCIS. You would not be eligible to file an I-485 under FB4 (and the associated EAD) until that date becomes current.

That's likely to be at least 10 years from now.

An EB case and an FB case can run in parallel. The PD from one cannot be used for the other.

gop999

03-16-2016, 09:00 AM

2. Lets say i get an EAD in few months through sponsorship by my sister, will i be able to keep my EB2 application priority date?

If you have approved I-140, yes, you can retain your earliest priority date..

I dont think you can interchange F and E PD's as rightly pointed out of SPEC. USICS will merely acknowledge the receipt of I130 and you have to wait for the PD to become current to get EAD/GC. Till such times you have to wait maintaining a legal status in US.

Spectator

03-22-2016, 08:26 AM

I'm sure many of you saw that USCIS released the FY2016 Q1 updates to the reports on this page (https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data).

Some selected "highlights".

I-485 approvals for EB were relatively low at 24,836, but fairly similar to last year at that time. Approval rate was 95%.
I-485 receipts were 33,828 which is at the higher end.
I-485 pending cases are 125,161 - up from 116,941 at the end of FY2015.

I-140 approvals were 24,395 which is around normal.
I-140 receipts were 32,739 which is a considerable increase on the average of slightly under 25k for FY2015.
I-140 pending cases are 43,509 - up from around 35k in FY2015.

I-526 approvals were very low at 1,257. That was in contrast to high receipts of 6,277. The number of pending cases now stands at 21,988.

I-360 approvals were 6,133. New receipts remain high at 10,089 - nearly double this time last year. Pending I-360 cases are now 15,411.

The I-360 (and therefore EB4 at a later stage) still seem to be driven by the increased numbers of Special Immigrant Juveniles (SIJ).
In FY2016 Q1 there were 3,117 approvals. Receipts were 4,047 and the number pending is now 4,493.

The I-360 and I-526 figures reiterate what has already been said - there should be no expectation of spare numbers from EB4 or EB5, barring calculation errors from CO.

jimmys

03-28-2016, 01:41 PM

EB2NOV10

04-08-2016, 11:45 AM

Any idea is May Visa bulletin getting released today or Monday?

EB3Iwaiting

04-12-2016, 10:27 AM

redsox2009

04-12-2016, 11:11 AM

More worried about following statement.

"During the past month, there have been extremely high levels of Employment-based demand in most categories for cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. If this sudden and unanticipated change in the demand pattern continues, it could impact final action dates in the coming months and possibly require corrective action in some."

gcq

04-12-2016, 11:46 AM

May Visa Bulletin is out. EB2I 2 weeks movement, EB3I 3 weeks:

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-may-2016.html

EB3ROW dates did not move. But the twist is that El Salvador, Hondurus and Guatemala now has a cutoff date! Their demand is too high in EB3 and now they are getting capped by 7% quota. If they get out of ROW, is this good news for EB3I?

But bulletin says El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras has been oversubscribed due to demand in E4 and SR categories, not EB3.
It should be good news I guess ( not an expert). But how come EB3-ROW remained steady ?

There is currently extremely high demand in the E4 and SR categories for applicants from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. This demand is primarily for Juvenile Court Dependent cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. Pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act, this requires implementing E4 and SR Application Final Action Dates for these countries, which will allow the Department to hold worldwide number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2016 annual limits. Any forward movement during the remainder of FY-2016 is unlikely although no specific prediction is possible.A determination as to whether these countries will remain subject to E4 and SR final application dates under the FY-2017 annual numerical limitation will be made in early September. Future visa availability will depend on a combination of demand for numbers being reported each month, and the extent to which otherwise unused numbers become available.
It is extremely likely that the India and Mexico Employment Fourth Preference categories will also become oversubscribed at some point during the summer months.

EB3Iwaiting

04-12-2016, 12:49 PM

Hondurus/El Salvador/Guatemala hardly took a few hundred visas last year. How can they even be capped in the 7%? Unless their demand is so high in SR and E4, that they got capped in overall 7%? Similar to EB Philippines but in reverse? If that's the case, a few hundred visas will hardly cause a dent in the 19k pending EB3I inventory.

The EB3ROW dates remaining steady is probably the effect of high PERM certifications.

Spectator

04-12-2016, 03:26 PM

I think we should perhaps just look at the El Salvador/Guatemala/Honduras retrogression in EB4 at the simplest face value interpretation at present.

Each of those Countries has demand for more visas than their own EB4 allocation plus any likely FA within EB4 will allow. That is why they have been retrogressed.

That's mainly the result of the large numbers of unaccompanied minors from Central America who crossed the southern border in recent years. The vast majority of the EB4 approvals for those Countries will be as Special Immigrant Juveniles.

Last FY, EB4 approvals accounted for more than 80-90% of EB approvals for each of those Countries. Mexico, India (and South Korea) were the other high users of EB4 visas. Together, those 6 Countries accounted for more than 50% of all EB4 approvals in FY2015.

I agree there is an unanswered ambiguity about the 7% question.

Philippines appear to be able to use more visas in the EB3 Category based on lower usage in the other EB Categories and South Korea are able to use more visas in EB Categories because of their low FB usage.

Why is/should it be any different in this case? The 3 Countries retrogressed in EB4 do not approach either the EB, FB or combined EB/FB 7% figures.

I don't understand it either - perhaps it is not understandable, or there is some obscure law/regulation we are unaware of.

Either way, it will not have an effect on either EB2 or EB3 FA. It wouldn't affect FD from EB1/EB4/EB5 either, but I think that's probably academic this FY. I warned some time ago that there would be none from EB4 this year, based on both last FY approvals and the number of I-360 receipts and approvals. We already knew there should be none from EB5.

PS:- What is it with CO and not using either Current or Unavailable? EB3-ROW/M are clearly Current (the FAD is well in front of the PERM certification dates) and a retrogression in EB4 to 01JAN10 is the same as being made Unavailable in all respects.

GCwaiting

04-12-2016, 04:30 PM

Hi Spec,
Great analysis, Thanks.
Will the EB3I date reach July 1 2005 (FD announced in Oct 15) in FY'16? When do you think it will happen?
Appreciate if you can reply

Spectator

04-12-2016, 06:02 PM

Hi Spec,
Great analysis, Thanks.
Will the EB3I date reach July 1 2005 (FD announced in Oct 15) in FY'16? When do you think it will happen?
Appreciate if you can replyI've stopped trying to second guess CO about EB3.

I fear he will repeat the same mistake as last year with EB3-I. The dates need to move forward early enough to ensure that USCIS issue the RFEs and can then process the cases to an approval after a response.

As I understand it, RFEs have yet to be issued in numbers to cases as late as June 2005 for EB3-I applicants. Last FY, the large movements in the COD were only made in August/September. It appears there was not enough time/visas in September to adjudicate sufficient numbers.

misanthrope

04-12-2016, 06:25 PM

Holy cow! I made the cut-off by 1 day. My PD is Nov 21 2008. Last month I got screwed by 12 days. Is this SLOW dripping of visa expected before they apply their trickle down theory in July VB?

gcvijay

04-13-2016, 12:19 PM

Hi Spec

My pd is july 2nd 2009.. if its not happening this year i don't want to waste my time as i'm taking a beating on my career moves a lot and also getting into 40's and compromising on my financial benefits is a big deal breaker and I have been doing this for last 3 yrs in the hopes of getting GC. Well, sorry for venting out my frustration on you but your service seems to be much respected. The question i have is " Will it happen this year for me?" If not i have a huge task in my hand of moving stuff worth 12 yrs way to INDIA and start preparing.. Appreciate your advice.

Thanks

mfd1402

04-13-2016, 12:25 PM

vishnu

04-13-2016, 02:52 PM

mfd1402

04-13-2016, 03:07 PM

why did you reach that conclusion mfd??? lower or no row spillover?

good thing is eb2 itself is continuing to move with annual allocation...if we can get to end 2008 before spillover season starts, then even the 2400 visas from EB2 M and EB2 Phil should take us to march...and an extra spillover 1000 from eb1 or eb2 row gets us to may/june

if you look at inventory report we are already using SO hence the cautious movt as CO doesn't want to overuse SO .... also as stated SO from EB4, EB5 and maybe EB1 will be nearly 0 or maybe 1k only hope is eb2row say we get approx 4k SO from eb2row I doubt that is sufficient to move dates beyond April 2009 .... I am sticking with my prediction of April 2009 best case .... March 2009 most likely case ... worst case will be Feb 2009

vishnu

04-13-2016, 03:12 PM

I do not disagree with ur spillover estimates..in fact I think row provides no more than 1-2k, but we get another 2 k from eb2 M and eb2 P = total of 4k at least

but I do think we are not using spillover yet...

looking at eb2 I trackit approvals and multiplying by the historical ratio (which has averaged around 48-50 consistently over the years), eb2 I usage still well within the annual quota... remember, the inventory even in 2008 is not going to go to zero

also, CO talked about spillover in june (so the july bulletin)

and if we believe there is spillover application in eb2, then we must surely think there is spillover application in eb3 also...but that's clearly not the case...

Spectator

04-14-2016, 02:28 PM

More than 18 months after the Fiscal Year ended, DHS has finally deigned to publish some figures about Legal Permanent Residents for FY2014, which they have called an "Annual Flow Report".

It's a pathetic 6 page summary which provides no useful information. Where's the proper Yearbook of Immigration Statistics or the data tables?

If you want to waste a few minutes of your life, it can be found here (https://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/LPR%20Flow%20Report%202014_508.pdf).

GCwaiting

04-14-2016, 05:44 PM

I've stopped trying to second guess CO about EB3.

I fear he will repeat the same mistake as last year with EB3-I. The dates need to move forward early enough to ensure that USCIS issue the RFEs and can then process the cases to an approval after a response.

As I understand it, RFEs have yet to be issued in numbers to cases as late as June 2005 for EB3-I applicants. Last FY, the large movements in the COD were only made in August/September. It appears there was not enough time/visas in September to adjudicate sufficient numbers.
Thanks a lot Spec. When, in your opinion, will date move to March2005 (My PD is 23rd). Really appreciate if you can reply !!

Spectator

04-20-2016, 01:50 PM

The article can be found here (http://immigrationview.foxrothschild.com/general-immigration-news-and-updates/immigrant-visa-processing-changes-eb23-india-moves-forward-eb23-china-retrogression-expected-visa-office-on-priority-dates-demand-and-predictions/) at the Fox Rothschild site.

Immigrant Visa Processing Changes – EB2/3 India moves forward; EB2/3 China retrogression expected – Visa Office on Priority Dates, Demand, and Predictions

By Alka Bahal on April 19, 2016

In our continuing series of reports, Charles (“Charlie”) Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, shares his most recent analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories with AILA (the American Immigration Lawyers’ Association).

Below are highlights from the most recent “check-in with Charlie” (April 13, 2016), reflecting his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.
This month, Charlie examines the final action date movements in the May 2016 Visa Bulletin and his analysis of current trends and future projections for the various immigrant preference categories.

Family-Based Projections

Because most family-based demand is generated at overseas posts, Charlie has greater visibility into those categories and is able to move the final action dates more consistently than the employment-based categories, which has a high percentage of USCIS-based (adjustment of status) filings. As a result, dramatic fluctuations in the family-based categories tend to be rare and typically occur only when there is a surge in family-based applicants responding to the agent of choice letter and becoming documentarily qualified.

As noted in the May Visa Bulletin, the final action dates for FB-4 China and India will remain at July 22, 2003, consistent with the final action date for FB-4 Worldwide. However, we can expect to see changes soon due to an increase in demand in both of these categories in recent months. The FB-4 India final action date will likely retrogress, possibly as early as June. It may also be necessary to hold or retrogress the FB-4 China final action date in late summer.

New Final Action Date for EB-4 and Certain Religious Workers (SR) Preference Categories

In May, a final action date of January 1, 2010 will be imposed for EB-4 and certain religious workers from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. The imposition of a final action date for these countries in these categories is primarily attributable to a spike in demand for adjustment of status over the past two months for Special Immigrant Juvenile (SIJS) applicants. As noted in the Bulletin, any forward movement in these categories this fiscal year is unlikely. Charlie advises that the per country limit for this category has already been reached for these countries for this fiscal year. Given EB-4 Worldwide demand, it is unlikely that there will be any additional “otherwise unused numbers” to allocate to these countries.

Similarly, it is extremely likely that EB-4 India and Mexico will also become oversubscribed at some point during the summer months.

EB-5 China.

Although demand in this category is increasing, I-526 petitions are being acted upon more quickly so the final action date may continue to advance slowly. Charlie has good visibility into demand in this category since most of these cases are at the NVC, although they are becoming documentarily qualified at their own pace.

EB-2 and EB-3 Philippines.

EB-2 Philippines remains current and Charlie expects it to remain so for the foreseeable future.

With regard to EB-3 Philippines, Charlie expects the final action date to continue to advance a few months at a time, consistent with movement over the past few months. He does not foresee it returning to the Worldwide final action date this fiscal year.

There is significant pent up demand in this category and given the greater level of visibility into it, Charlie is able to more the final action date consistently. Currently, the Texas Service Center has more than 1,600 EB-3 Philippines cases in the pending demand file and the Nebraska Service Center has more than 1,200. Demand at the U.S. Consulate in Manila is about half of that at USCIS. Charlie hopes that the EB-3 Philippines final action date will advance as far as mid-2010 by the end of this fiscal year.

EB-2 and EB-3 China.

Recently, number usage for EB-3 China has exploded due to the EB-3 downgrade effect that Charlie has been expecting. Although anticipated, there was no advance warning as to when this demand would materialize, to what extent, or for how long. Demand for EB-3 China numbers exceeded 400 in March alone. EB-2 China spiked to 850 in March. April demand in both categories is expected to be at least on par with March demand, and may possibly exceed it. As a result, it would most likely be necessary to retrogress EB-2 and EB-3 China in June in an effort to hold number use within the annual limit.

EB-1 Demand and Impact to Other Categories.

EB-1 demand from USCIS increased almost 100 percent from February (2,500+) to March (5,000+) which reflects more than 95 percent of the EB-1 Worldwide demand. This spike leaves fewer numbers to potentially spill down to other categories, which will impact EB-2 final action dates. Members should expect that the EB categories that typically rely on unused EB-1 numbers, such as EB-2 India, will be impacted. It remains to be seen whether a cut-off date will need to be established for any EB-1 countries this fiscal year.

India Employment-Based Final Action Dates.

The final action date for EB-2 India will advance modestly, from November 8, 2008 in April to November 22, 2008 in May. Similarly, EB-3 India will creep forward from August 8, 2004 in April to September 1, 2004 in May. EB-3 demand, after the initial allocation of numbers, has been increasing by 100 month over month from January to February and February to March.

A number of factors make it difficult for Charlie to accurately predict movement in these categories. Increased EB-1 usage negatively impacts the supply of available visas for EB-2 India, and upgrades are currently driving EB-2 India demand. As a result of these two factors, there may be fewer numbers available to EB-2 India than previously expected.

When USCIS requests an EB-2 number in an upgrade case, it also asks that the previously requested EB-3 number be cancelled. Charlie has no visibility into EB-2 upgrade demand until USCIS completes adjudication of the I-485, requests an EB-2 number, and cancels the EB-3 number. This lack of visibility can potentially result in unexpected and dramatic changes in the EB-2 India final action date, as well as other employment-based preference categories.

No comment about use by other Countries in EB2 or EB3 of any kind. CO has another meeting today with AILA in Florida. It's possible, though unlikely IMO, he will say more at that meeting.

vishnu

04-20-2016, 03:20 PM

these statesment are always vague / hilarious even..

EB1 has not yielded spillover in years, im actually somewhat positive that he even alludes to the possibility that there could be some

Jagan01

04-20-2016, 03:47 PM

Spectator

04-20-2016, 04:10 PM

The important statement is "As a result of these two factors, there may be fewer numbers available to EB-2 India than previously expected.". CO is basically hinting that the July 2009 estimate, that he made earlier, is far fetched.Jagan,

That's my take as well. At the very least he is trying to dampen expectations.

suninphx

04-20-2016, 10:46 PM

Jagan,

That's my take as well. At the very least he is trying to dampen expectations.

Whatever date DOS sets doesn't matter anymore. The dates set by USCIS bulletin matter....

So even if he sticks to initial projection that is of no use for AOS cases anyways

Did I miss something other than one more dose of (known) negative news?

Spectator

04-21-2016, 07:51 AM

Whatever date DOS sets doesn't matter anymore. The dates set by USCIS bulletin matter....

So even if he sticks to initial projection that is of no use for AOS cases anyways

Did I miss something other than one more dose of (known) negative news?suninphx,

I respect your opinion, but I disagree in part.

The Filing Dates for EB AOS applicants have been rendered superfluous by USCIS decision not to honor them. Whether to file an I-485, or for it to be approved, only the DOS FAD matters currently. I think we agree on that.

We'll have to see what happens in the future, but I have the sense/hope (like many others) that the Filing Dates are likely to be reset at the beginning of each FY to cover where the FAD is expected to reach by the end of that FY. USCIS may honor the Filing Dates for a month or two each time that happens.

Where they reset to is therefore dependent on where the FAD reaches in the preceding FY. A failure to reach the previous projection is likely to mean the Filing Date will not move as far as it might have done so.

Judging by what happened when May/June 2009 were open for filing, there are anything from 3.0 - 4.5k more applications to be filed between July 2009 and May 2010 under EB2-I.

I don't think the Filing Date concept will become useful until the current backlog up to May 2010 is nearly exhausted. Only then might the date move more regularly and be accepted by USCIS.

Finally, this is the first time CO has semi-officially acknowledged that the estimated Filing Dates may not be reached. That is newsworthy and significant. Until now, it has only been people like those on this forum who have drawn that conclusion.

vishnu

04-21-2016, 08:32 AM

spec - you are right on the filing dates.... its likely a start of the year phenomenon for a month or two... and will become more in play once the backlog is eliminated

we may see it happen sooner in eb3 india over eb2 india...

and july 1 2009 for final dates was going to be a stretch.... im thinking april-may at this point (only incremental info I have is your database of trackitt approvals)

do you have any guesstimates at this point on where we will see final dates for eb2 india?

qesehmk

04-21-2016, 08:35 AM

..Finally, this is the first time CO has semi-officially acknowledged that the estimated Filing Dates may not be reached. That is newsworthy and significant. Until now, it has only been people like those on this forum who have drawn that conclusion.

Oink oink.

Spectator

04-21-2016, 08:50 AM

Oink oink.Q,

You need to explain. I've seen you use the expression before, but I don't understand its significance.

Other than a pig sounding noise, it means nothing to me.

qesehmk

04-21-2016, 08:59 AM

Sorry .. I thought you understood!

It's my way of agreeing with somebody with an expression - "told you so" !!

p.s. - Don't mean to offend you.

Q,

You need to explain. I've seen you use the expression before, but I don't understand its significance.

Other than a pig sounding noise, it means nothing to me.

Spectator

04-21-2016, 10:17 AM

Sorry .. I thought you understood!

It's my way of agreeing with somebody with an expression - "told you so" !!

p.s. - Don't mean to offend you.Q,

I wasn't offended, just curious. Now I know for future reference.

I remember previously that you thought one of the expressions I used was rude because you were not familiar with it.

suninphx

04-21-2016, 01:10 PM

We'll have to see what happens in the future, but I have the sense/hope (like many others) that the Filing Dates are likely to be reset at the beginning of each FY to cover where the FAD is expected to reach by the end of that FY. USCIS may honor the Filing Dates for a month or two each time that happens.

After spending so much time on various immigration forums and with vast knowledge of the system you have, if you still say above - all I can say is that 'hope is a good thing'

Let's consider positive scenario (for a change :) )- if say FAD ends within reasonable range of initial predicted date of 01 Jul 09 and CO sets date of let's say 01-Jan-10 as next FY FAD , but USCIS still decides to not honor it (for their own reasons), then again then date set by DOS does not mean much.

Currently, I have no reason to believe the scenario you mentioned above would happen. ( won't complain though if it actually happens)

Spectator

04-21-2016, 01:59 PM

Currently, I have no reason to believe the scenario you mentioned above would happen. ( won't complain though if it actually happens)suninphx,

Do I hear correctly! I'm actually more optimistic than you are!!

Wonders will never cease.

vishnu

04-21-2016, 03:00 PM

Spec: I see you haven't updated Eb1 trackitt approvals for a couple of days - nothing has changed since 4/18?

what are your guesstimates for Eb2 India final action dates by end of this FY?

Im going for 1k from EB1, 2k from EB2 M and P and possibly 2k from Eb2 ROW = 5k spillover, so ending around end April 2009, so CO takes it beyond by a month or so to May 2009

HarepathekaIntezar

04-21-2016, 04:47 PM

India Employment-Based Final Action Dates:
The final action date for EB-2 India will advance modestly, from November 8, 2008 in April to November 22, 2008 in May. Similarly, EB-3 India will creep forward from August 8, 2004 in April to September 1, 2004 in May. EB-3 demand, after the initial allocation of numbers, has been increasing by 100 month over month from January to February and February to March.

These could be the unlucky folks who were unable to apply for AOS in July 2007 Fiasco. But anyways, as long as USCIS and DOS continue their quarrel and AILA acts as the wingman for DOS, there is nothing anyone can do about it.

Spectator

04-21-2016, 09:56 PM

Spec: I see you haven't updated Eb1 trackitt approvals for a couple of days - nothing has changed since 4/18?
vishnu,

That would be correct. If I haven't updated the figure, it is only because no new EB1 approvals have been reported on Trackitt.

EB2NOV10

04-22-2016, 11:56 AM

Hi Q/Spec,

Based on the latest information, what are the chances for Nov 2010 PD's to file EAD this year?

vishnu

04-22-2016, 12:08 PM

I am not Q nor Spec, so excuse me in advance for taking the liberty to respond to you ;)

all the predictions/calculations can point to some estimates on Final Action Dates - and for Eb2 India, im going with April 2009 or thereabout...

no way to predict filing dates because that's a function of how CO planning on using them - we don't have enough history to spot the trend

but irrespective of the scenario, nov 2010 would be a stretch for filing dates I think...even if he wants to maintain 1 year of inventory, he can set filing dates at may 2010

vancouverman

04-29-2016, 11:31 AM

Dear experts..I've been following this thread for a long time. Appreciate all of your fact based analysis to ease the pain of many.
Based on CO's comments in the May VB, AOS inventory and approval trends, what are the chances of FA dates retrogressing to pre Aug 2007 in June VB and beyond?
You guessed it ;) my PD is 08/07; RD is 02/16

PD: 08/07
1st EB2 I-140 approved Aug 2008
2nd EB2 I-140 approved PP/Concurrent 2/16 with recaptured 08/07 PD
I-485 filed concurrent NSC 2/16; EAD/AP received; pending as of 04/16

gc_dec_2008

05-01-2016, 03:07 PM

Some action on my case after more than 4 years. I received message that RFE generated on my case. PD Dec 16, 2008

EB2NOV10

05-02-2016, 08:33 AM

In Trackitt, for EB3-I upto Feb 2005 they are receiving RFE's.

4WatItsWorth

05-06-2016, 01:57 PM

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-june-2016.html

EB2-I retrogresses to 01Oct2004. What a bummer!

From the bulletin-
=============
D. RETROGRESSION OF SEVERAL FAMILY-SPONSORED AND
EMPLOYMENT-BASED FINAL ACTION DATES FOR THE
MONTH OF JUNE

INDIA E2: During the past two months, there have been extremely high levels of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. This has necessitated retrogression of the Second preference final action date for the month of June in an effort to hold number use within the FY-2016 annual limit. This date is expected to advance slowly during the last three months of the fiscal year, at a pace consistent with that of the India Employment-based Third preference date.
=============

vyruss

05-06-2016, 02:05 PM

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-june-2016.html

EB2-I retrogreases to 01Oct2004. What a bummer!

Mind-boggling! The explanation for movement in the last three months implies little to no spill over. Wow.

jimmys

05-06-2016, 02:11 PM

Mind-boggling! The explanation for movement in the last three months implies little to no spill over. Wow.

It's more like no SO than little. FY 16 is done for EB2-I. It's much probable now EB3I marching ahead of EB2I.

amulchandra

05-06-2016, 02:27 PM

It's more like no SO than little. FY 16 is done for EB2-I.

Looks like

1. Very less SO for EB2 I this year. Might still get some and move to 2006/2007 in next quarter when SO kicks in.
2.CO is very cautious this FY to not over allocate EB2 I like he did last year.

I do not want to start any class wars here but..... from EB3 I point of view this might be good as USCIS will be able to focus better on allocating SO numbers to non ported EB3 I applications properly while applying EB2 I-- visas to ported EB3 I applications.

I am expecting a good movement for EB3 I next quarter.

vishnu

05-06-2016, 02:35 PM

Prior to FY 2015, CO kept a very 'early' date for EB2 India, only to move aggressively in Q4 for spillover season....

FY 2015 - he moved dates steadily from early on, only to end up overallocating to Eb2 India...

FY 2016 - again he moved dates early on but having learned from FY 2015 went back to an earlier date to avoid overallocating

I remain confident that q4 once he knows spillover trends - and may be he will be super conservative and only allocate in last 2 months, dates will go back to 2009 and end around april 2009... there will be at least 2000 spillover I believe

and as far as his messaging is concerned, well - the less said about that the better

Looks like

1. Very less SO for EB2 I this year. Might still get some and move to 2006/2007 in next quarter when SO kicks in.
2.CO is very cautious this FY to not over allocate EB2 I like he did last year.

I do not want to start any class wars here but..... from EB3 I point of view this might be good as USCIS will be able to focus better on allocating SO numbers to non ported EB3 I applications properly while applying EB2 I-- visas to ported EB3 I applications.

I am expecting a good movement for EB3 I next quarter.

Immigo

05-06-2016, 02:51 PM

Mind-boggling! The explanation for movement in the last three months implies little to no spill over. Wow.

The only silver lining is that this may force USCIS to use filing rather than filing rather than final action dates.

4WatItsWorth

05-06-2016, 03:04 PM

dates will go back to 2009 and end around april 2009... there will be at least 2000 spillover I believe
The visa bulletin mentions the possibility of dates going back to the May VB level (EB2-I~ Nov2008) only next FY. See extract further below. Based on that, it looks like this year is done.

=========
"...Every effort will be made to return the retrogressed dates to those listed in the May 2016 Visa Bulletin as quickly as possible, once the FY-2017 annual limits take effect October 1, 2016..."
=========

amulchandra

05-08-2016, 04:07 PM

The visa bulletin mentions the possibility of dates going back to the May VB level (EB2-I~ Nov2008) only next FY. See extract further below. Based on that, it looks like this year is done.

=========
"...Every effort will be made to return the retrogressed dates to those listed in the May 2016 Visa Bulletin as quickly as possible, once the FY-2017 annual limits take effect October 1, 2016..."
=========

Q and Spec,
I am eagerly waiting to hear your take on June VB. Can you both please share your thoughts?

Thanks
Amul

GCwaiting

05-08-2016, 07:24 PM

suninphx

05-08-2016, 08:35 PM

Spec,

From where can I pick up the EB1C(India) allocation for last 4-5 FYs. I think about time that more attention is needed towards QA/Developer turned international managers.

TIA.

qesehmk

05-09-2016, 01:06 AM

Guys - there is not much to say really. This is an old rinse and repeat process that DoS & other govt. agencies are orchestrating. They have done everything in their power to stop EB-I backlogged folks from benefiting from any possible spillover. Initially it was blatant - the spillovers were applied vertically. When the courts told them to apply them horizontally -- then the agencies cleared backlogs for EB1 EB2 across 485 140 and then PERM. Now a days the same process is going on except in EB3 ROW.

Add to all this - the fact that the economy is doing well and hence there is PERM demand. Thus we are seeing significant demand in EB2ROW as well - not to mention EB1 / 4/ 5.

This has created incredibly bleak picture for EB2-I. June VB is just reiterating the same picture.

On EB3-I the story is better - even better compared to last year. But as you all know - I have stopped doing manual calculations. Use WhereismyGC's free tool to get a sense of prediction.

As I always have said - numbers don't lie. Statistics does .... but hard data rarely lies.

p.s. - My apologies if you think I am careless. I don't mean to be. But the whole thing is so pathetic that I would hate to give anybody a false hope. I would rather people understand the problem and then act accordingly to maximize their happiness and career prospects. My best wishes to everybody.

Q and Spec,
I am eagerly waiting to hear your take on June VB. Can you both please share your thoughts?

Thanks
Amul

Q, Spec & YT
Please mention about EB3-I also in your thoughts. Eagerly waiting to hear. What is your prediction for remainder of FY'16.

vishnu

05-09-2016, 05:45 AM

Wanted to pen my thoughts on EB2 I / particularly related to the June VB.

Spec has been cautioning us that further movement in EB2 I is not possible without spillover...

CO is not going to use spillover now (he refers to 'annual limits' and hence confirms that only the annual quota is being utilized), hence the retrogression.

If spillover amounts to even 1500 visas (just from EB2 M and P), we'll get to Jan 1 2009 at the very minimum in my opinion. This may happen in August and September bulletins, probably not even a month earlier.

With last year's over-allocation, I just feel he is being extremely conservative with regards to moving EB2 India dates forward.

Several members expressed concerns over the messaging - CO sort of indicated that the category would be retrogressed thru the year and be restored only at the start of the next year. This would be an accurate depiction assuming zero spillover and CO is probably just basing this statement off just the annual limits. There will be some spillover, albeit very small but that should be sufficient to ensure the retrogression is reversed even if for 1-2 months in August/September bulletins...

To validate this point, I looked at prior bulletins and CO's messaging.

Jan 2008 - retrogressed:
CO statement: It is likely that the annual limit for this category will be reached within the next few months, at which time the category would become “unavailable” for the remainder of fiscal year 2008"
Reality: dates advanced significantly in Aug and
Sep.

June 2009 - retrogressed
It has been necessary to retrogress the India Employment Second preference cut-off date for June to keep visa issuances within the annual category numerical limit. At this time, it is not possible to estimate whether or not this retrogression will apply throughout the remainder of the fiscal year.
Reality: dates advanced significantly in Sep.

In 2013, he kept dates retrogressed thru-out the year except for rapid advancement in Aug and Sep.

Im not for a second saying we'll have rapid movement in Q4 - just that the retrogression will be reversed and we should be in 2009 by September... the minimum spillover should get us to Jan 2009...and anything further will take us beyond...

Would LOVE Spec's thoughts...

Spectator

05-09-2016, 08:25 AM

Q and Spec,
I am eagerly waiting to hear your take on June VB. Can you both please share your thoughts?

Thanks
Amul

Q, Spec & YT
Please mention about EB3-I also in your thoughts. Eagerly waiting to hear. What is your prediction for remainder of FY'16.

Firstly, I will admit I didn't expect such a savage retrogression of the dates.

Privately, I have been worried about the ability of EB2-I to progress further, but with low SO expected and high error margins the ultimate outcome was very uncertain.

As Q has said, the numbers don't generally lie.

On one hand, there's already been discussion about the possibility of low SO for the year as the historical sources have dried up.

EB2-ROW demand has been high and may even increase if the PERM surge hits. At worst, that has the potential to eat up much of the horizontal SO within EB2.

The other factor is EB2-I demand itself. The scant evidence points to several thousand EB2-I cases before the May 2016 FAD still pending approval. The majority of Trackitt approvals to date have 2015 and 2016 receipt dates for the I-485 as do a large number of the cases that remain pending.

As for EB3-I, I still expect fairly good news on that front, but not necessarily some of the huge numbers that some people have predicted.

As we entered FY2016, the USCIS Inventory showed around 12k EB3/EW cases pending for ROW (excluding M/P). I'll admit the EB3-ROW Inventory looks a little odd, with substantial numbers of cases with quite old PD's compared to the FAD at that time. Despite Q1 approvals, the number pending increased by 1.5k in the January Inventory.

In the first six months of FY2016, 18k PERM have been certified for ROW. A proportion of those will be EB3 and a proportion of those have a chance of a subsequent I-485 being approved in the remainder of FY2016. How many depends on many factors, not least USCIS processing speeds and priorities. However you calculate it, with dependents, it does have the potential to add substantial demand in FY2016.

Some of my comments may be a bit of overreach, but I do want people to get a sense of the multi faceted nature of the situation.

Spectator

05-09-2016, 08:32 AM

Spec,

From where can I pick up the EB1C(India) allocation for last 4-5 FYs. I think about time that more attention is needed towards QA/Developer turned international managers.

TIA.sun,

Those figures have not been published.

You can either find out

a) the overall India EB1 usage (including dependents), which is not broken down into the sub-categories (DOS Visa Report) or

b) you can find out the overall breakdown of the EB1 subcategories by primary applicant, but not by Country (DHS Yearbook Of Immigration Statistics)

Sadly, it is becoming increasingly apparent that DHS have ceased publishing the detailed statistics. The last report is for FY2013.

suninphx

05-09-2016, 08:56 AM

sun,

Those figures have not been published.

You can either find out

a) the overall India EB1 usage (including dependents), which is not broken down into the sub-categories (DOS Visa Report) or

b) you can find out the overall breakdown of the EB1 subcategories by primary applicant, but not by Country (DHS Yearbook Of Immigration Statistics)

Sadly, it is becoming increasingly apparent that DHS have ceased publishing the detailed statistics. The last report is for FY2013.

Thanks Spec!

vishnu

05-09-2016, 09:00 AM

Hi Spec

looks like you think Eb2 India probably can't go beyond Dec 2008 even after spillover?

Firstly, I will admit I didn't expect such a savage retrogression of the dates.

Privately, I have been worried about the ability of EB2-I to progress further, but with low SO expected and high error margins the ultimate outcome was very uncertain.

As Q has said, the numbers don't generally lie.

On one hand, there's already been discussion about the possibility of low SO for the year as the historical sources have dried up.

EB2-ROW demand has been high and may even increase if the PERM surge hits. At worst, that has the potential to eat up much of the horizontal SO within EB2.

The other factor is EB2-I demand itself. The scant evidence points to several thousand EB2-I cases before the May 2016 FAD still pending approval. The majority of Trackitt approvals to date have 2015 and 2016 receipt dates for the I-485 as do a large number of the cases that remain pending.

As for EB3-I, I still expect fairly good news on that front, but not necessarily some of the huge numbers that some people have predicted.

As we entered FY2016, the USCIS Inventory showed around 12k EB3/EW cases pending for ROW (excluding M/P). I'll admit the EB3-ROW Inventory looks a little odd, with substantial numbers of cases with quite old PD's compared to the FAD at that time. Despite Q1 approvals, the number pending increased by 1.5k in the January Inventory.

In the first six months of FY2016, 18k PERM have been certified for ROW. A proportion of those will be EB3 and a proportion of those have a chance of a subsequent I-485 being approved in the remainder of FY2016. How many depends on many factors, not least USCIS processing speeds and priorities. However you calculate it, with dependents, it does have the potential to add substantial demand in FY2016.

Some of my comments may be a bit of overreach, but I do want people to get a sense of the multi faceted nature of the situation.

Spectator

05-09-2016, 09:32 AM

Hi Spec

looks like you think Eb2 India probably can't go beyond Dec 2008 even after spillover?That was my private belief before the June 2016 VB was published.

Given what CO said in the VB, it's likely much worse than that:

EMPLOYMENT-BASED:

INDIA E2: During the past two months, there have been extremely high levels of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. This has necessitated retrogression of the Second preference final action date for the month of June in an effort to hold number use within the FY-2016 annual limit. This date is expected to advance slowly during the last three months of the fiscal year, at a pace consistent with that of the India Employment-based Third preference date.

........

Every effort will be made to return the retrogressed dates to those listed in the May 2016 Visa Bulletin as quickly as possible, once the FY-2017 annual limits take effect October 1, 2016. Speculation on how quickly, or when, a full recovery might occur might not be possible until late summer.
I would take those statements to mean that EB2-I will end FY2016 at FAD similar to that of EB3-I (i.e. in 2005 or 2006).

I think it's possible that the EB2-I date might advance a bit further than that in the September VB, if CO finds that demand in other categories was not as high as he currently expects.

sandykolu

05-09-2016, 09:37 AM

Q/Spec,
Do you think this retrogression has been done to reduce EB3- EB2 porting?

qesehmk

05-09-2016, 09:51 AM

Q/Spec,
Do you think this retrogression has been done to reduce EB3- EB2 porting?
It has been done to set the expectations of backlogged community. It is sending a message that they shouldn't expect much for the remainder of the year.

How accurate that message is - one can debate. But I believe the direction can't be mistaken.

I agree w Spec that the EB2 situation could be worse than earlier thought.

amulchandra

05-09-2016, 10:02 AM

Firstly, I will admit I didn't expect such a savage retrogression of the dates.

Privately, I have been worried about the ability of EB2-I to progress further, but with low SO expected and high error margins the ultimate outcome was very uncertain.

As Q has said, the numbers don't generally lie.

On one hand, there's already been discussion about the possibility of low SO for the year as the historical sources have dried up.

EB2-ROW demand has been high and may even increase if the PERM surge hits. At worst, that has the potential to eat up much of the horizontal SO within EB2.

The other factor is EB2-I demand itself. The scant evidence points to several thousand EB2-I cases before the May 2016 FAD still pending approval. The majority of Trackitt approvals to date have 2015 and 2016 receipt dates for the I-485 as do a large number of the cases that remain pending.

As for EB3-I, I still expect fairly good news on that front, but not necessarily some of the huge numbers that some people have predicted.

As we entered FY2016, the USCIS Inventory showed around 12k EB3/EW cases pending for ROW (excluding M/P). I'll admit the EB3-ROW Inventory looks a little odd, with substantial numbers of cases with quite old PD's compared to the FAD at that time. Despite Q1 approvals, the number pending increased by 1.5k in the January Inventory.

In the first six months of FY2016, 18k PERM have been certified for ROW. A proportion of those will be EB3 and a proportion of those have a chance of a subsequent I-485 being approved in the remainder of FY2016. How many depends on many factors, not least USCIS processing speeds and priorities. However you calculate it, with dependents, it does have the potential to add substantial demand in FY2016.

Some of my comments may be a bit of overreach, but I do want people to get a sense of the multi faceted nature of the situation.

Spec and Q,

Thank you very much for your replies. The situation for EB2 I indeed looks dire.
I am waiting in EB3 I line for a decade now. I hope that EB3 I receives some reasonable SO and moves into 2006. My pd is July 2006. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Good luck to all of us.

Thanks
Amul

anuprab

05-09-2016, 10:43 AM

Spec and Q,

Thank you very much for your replies. The situation for EB2 I indeed looks dire.
I am waiting in EB3 I line for a decade now. I hope that EB3 I receives some reasonable SO and moves into 2006. My pd is July 2006. Keeping my fingers crossed.

Good luck to all of us.

Thanks
Amul

I am with you Amul, EB3I June 2006..losing hope each day though with the VB fiascos...

YTeleven

05-09-2016, 10:16 PM

Q, Spec & YT
Please mention about EB3-I also in your thoughts. Eagerly waiting to hear. What is your prediction for remainder of FY'16.

Here are my thoughts:
As I said earlier, EB2-I don't get any relief until the EB3-I catches up with EB2-I cutoff dates and upward porting gets to ZERO.
Also, I said going forward we should not see the EB3-I and EB2-I separately but both together.
I believe from here on these two categories will move closely with NO differences in the cut of dates.
In fact, I think EB2-I dates will follow the EB3-I dates until the next recession or at least till next 3 years.
Here are how the numbers look for these 2 categories in the next 2 years:
-------------------------------
TotalVisas| EB3-I | Eb2-I
-------------------------------
FY2016 |16000 | 4000
FY2017 |16000 | 4000
FY2018 |16000 | 4000
-------------------------------

Jagan01

05-09-2016, 10:53 PM

That was my private belief before the June 2016 VB was published.

Given what CO said in the VB, it's likely much worse than that:

I would take those statements to mean that EB2-I will end FY2016 at FAD similar to that of EB3-I (i.e. in 2005 or 2006).

I think it's possible that the EB2-I date might advance a bit further than that in the September VB, if CO finds that demand in other categories was not as high as he currently expects.
Call me optimistic, or may be I am indulging in wishful thinking because my PD is Jan 2009. :)

But here is my theory.

1. CO is not at all considering any SO and he has seen enough times that USCIS can sometimes ramp up EB2ROW approvals. After the multiple hits last year, he is going super conservative to avoid a repeat of last year. It was also clear that no SO has been used until now.

2. The trackitt approvals maintained by Spec indicate that we might end up with similar usage as last year for the EB2ROW and EB2M and EB2P. Even if that were to happen, we would get 1000 to 1400 SO and that should help up pull the dates back to Jan 2009.

My take is that in Sep VB we will see the EB2I dates at Jan 2009.

vishnu

05-10-2016, 06:00 AM

agree with you Jagan... eb2 I should get at least 2k spillover.... 1.2k from M&P and c1k from ROW and EB1 (which is tracking lower).

We should get to Jan/Feb 2009 but not beyond... ALL of the pending inventory 2005-2008 won't be approved (some may be redundant, errors, cross chargeability etc etc)

How does YTEleven come up with 16,000 for EB3 each year! Holy... that would means dates in 2010-11 for Eb2 in 2 years... I can't imagine Eb3I demand is significant 2007-2010....

Jagan01

05-10-2016, 02:16 PM

agree with you Jagan... eb2 I should get at least 2k spillover.... 1.2k from M&P and c1k from ROW and EB1 (which is tracking lower).

I had accounted all EB2nonIC SO in the 1000 to 1400 SO estimation.

HarepathekaIntezar

05-10-2016, 03:11 PM

Here are my thoughts:
As I said earlier, EB2-I don't get any relief until the EB3-I catches up with EB2-I cutoff dates and upward porting gets to ZERO.
Also, I said going forward we should not see the EB3-I and EB2-I separately but both together.
I believe from here on these two categories will move closely with NO differences in the cut of dates.
In fact, I think EB2-I dates will follow the EB3-I dates until the next recession or at least till next 3 years.
Here are how the numbers look for these 2 categories in the next 2 years:
-------------------------------
TotalVisas| EB3-I | Eb2-I
-------------------------------
FY2016 |16000 | 4000
FY2017 |16000 | 4000
FY2018 |16000 | 4000
-------------------------------

That is a lot of EB3i available Visas in the next 3 yrs. Would that mean that there will be EB2I to EB3I reverse porting like in the case of China? I am more inclined to believe this prediction if I see RFE's start rolling out for March2005 PD's. Till that time, it is all up in the air.

gcq

05-10-2016, 04:20 PM

That is a lot of EB3i available Visas in the next 3 yrs. Would that mean that there will be EB2I to EB3I reverse porting like in the case of China? I am more inclined to believe this prediction if I see RFE's start rolling out for March2005 PD's. Till that time, it is all up in the air.

Once EB3-I hits 2007, there could be an avalanche of applications hitting EB3-I queue.

EB3Iwaiting

05-11-2016, 10:53 AM

Once EB3-I hits 2007, there could be an avalanche of applications hitting EB3-I queue.
How? Isn't it obvious that most from 07-09 have already ported to EB2? That is evident as EB2I is struggling to move beyond mid-2009.

gcq

05-11-2016, 11:01 AM

How? Isn't it obvious that most from 07-09 have already ported to EB2? That is evident as EB2I is struggling to move beyond mid-2009.
Not everyone in EB3 is a porting candidate. I am guessing there would be lot more non-porting candidates than porting candidates. Moreover once EB3 becomes current, there won't be any motivation for porting.

Dondraper

05-11-2016, 12:30 PM

Does this mean the Eb3-i dates will be flushed quickly and there would be reverse porting

hope21

05-11-2016, 12:55 PM

Thanks YT. Can you please elaborate on this. How did you reach to this calculation of 16000 numbers for EB3I for 2016. As per you, what will be the final action date for EB3 at the end of 2016 and 2017?

******************************************

Here are my thoughts:
As I said earlier, EB2-I don't get any relief until the EB3-I catches up with EB2-I cutoff dates and upward porting gets to ZERO.
Also, I said going forward we should not see the EB3-I and EB2-I separately but both together.
I believe from here on these two categories will move closely with NO differences in the cut of dates.
In fact, I think EB2-I dates will follow the EB3-I dates until the next recession or at least till next 3 years.
Here are how the numbers look for these 2 categories in the next 2 years:
-------------------------------
TotalVisas| EB3-I | Eb2-I
-------------------------------
FY2016 |16000 | 4000
FY2017 |16000 | 4000
FY2018 |16000 | 4000
-------------------------------

******************************************

Suva2001

05-11-2016, 04:51 PM

Not everyone in EB3 is a porting candidate. I am guessing there would be lot more non-porting candidates than porting candidates. Moreover once EB3 becomes current, there won't be any motivation for porting.

You are right. I personally know few EB3I applicants with 2010/2011 PDs and they haven't ported and still in EB3 queue. Their company doesn't in EB2 category. Also they are not in hurry and happy with their current job. So they are not switching the job either.

Thanks

EB2NOV10

05-11-2016, 09:27 PM

You are right. I personally know few EB3I applicants with 2010/2011 PDs and they haven't ported and still in EB3 queue. Their company doesn't in EB2 category. Also they are not in hurry and happy with their current job. So they are not switching the job either.

Thanks

All the people within 01MAY2010 would have migrated from EB3 to EB2. As it was current in the FY2012.

harapatha

05-12-2016, 08:07 AM

All the people within 01MAY2010 would have migrated from EB3 to EB2. As it was current in the FY2012.

Don't think *all* would have ported from Eb3 - As someone said earlier, there are still a huge # of EB3s sitting in EB3 queue. But whosoever ported would have been greened by now. Am still hopeful of YT's projections. Once 2007 is behind for EB3, as projected by YT, that'd bring a huge relief, nevertheless.

Second factor is if CO keeps EB2 at same pace as EB3, it might reduce the porting pace and might bring some 'visibility' for him (in the way he works) to forecast demand better.

EB3Iwaiting

05-12-2016, 10:03 AM

Don't think *all* would have ported from Eb3 - As someone said earlier, there are still a huge # of EB3s sitting in EB3 queue.
We can worry about it once the current inventory is cleared out or is low enough for CO to advance the dates beyond July 07. Once dates go beyond July 07, at least people will be able to file AOS. Whatever the number is, at least it will show up in the inventory report. Most Indians file in EB2 from 2010 onwards. It is apparent from the I-140 data.

Dondraper

05-12-2016, 12:04 PM

So there 56,105 perm certifications for Q1+Q2. If we exclude India + China (30,930 +4764 = 35694) gives a grand ROW total (EB2+EB3) of 20411. Assuming that there is a dependent for each ROW GC filer it will give a grand total of 40822. Total Eb2+EB3 quota is 80800. The net flow should be 80800-11520( Eb2+EB3 India china )= 69280. How in the world are the dates made to retogress.

The whole thing very much cooked up !!

sandykolu

05-12-2016, 02:09 PM

Don't think *all* would have ported from Eb3 - As someone said earlier, there are still a huge # of EB3s sitting in EB3 queue. But whosoever ported would have been greened by now. Am still hopeful of YT's projections. Once 2007 is behind for EB3, as projected by YT, that'd bring a huge relief, nevertheless.

Second factor is if CO keeps EB2 at same pace as EB3, it might reduce the porting pace and might bring some 'visibility' for him (in the way he works) to forecast demand better.

I agree. I dont think there has been a whole lot (maybe minimal) approvals for 2009 eb2 dates for the people who filed in 2012 when the eb2-I filing date moved to May 1, 2010.
A while back someone had given very interesting statistics on how the dates have just gone back on forth for eb2I without any substantial approvals for people who filed in 2012.
I guess I should be happy I was lucky enough to apply then and get an EAD, but GC seems to be far ways out.

EB3Iwaiting

05-13-2016, 10:38 AM

Here are my thoughts:
As I said earlier, EB2-I don't get any relief until the EB3-I catches up with EB2-I cutoff dates and upward porting gets to ZERO.
Also, I said going forward we should not see the EB3-I and EB2-I separately but both together.
I believe from here on these two categories will move closely with NO differences in the cut of dates.
In fact, I think EB2-I dates will follow the EB3-I dates until the next recession or at least till next 3 years.
Here are how the numbers look for these 2 categories in the next 2 years:
-------------------------------
TotalVisas| EB3-I | Eb2-I
-------------------------------
FY2016 |16000 | 4000
FY2017 |16000 | 4000
FY2018 |16000 | 4000
-------------------------------

Hi YT,
I am interested too in how you reached the number 16k from your original 20k. Is it simply because of recent faster PERM processing and the EB3ROW inventory and demand may not be as low as you originally thought? If you can elaborate your calculations on 16k, that will be great. Most of us have a much more conservative number in mind.

hope21

05-16-2016, 10:53 AM

Seems quite a few folks are interested in YT's calculation of 16000 for 2016 and he seems to be busy, let's wait until/when he/YT gets a chance to reply..

=============

Thanks YT. Can you please elaborate on this. How did you reach to this calculation of 16000 numbers for EB3I for 2016. As per you, what will be the final action date for EB3 at the end of 2016 and 2017?

************

Here are my thoughts:
As I said earlier, EB2-I don't get any relief until the EB3-I catches up with EB2-I cutoff dates and upward porting gets to ZERO.
Also, I said going forward we should not see the EB3-I and EB2-I separately but both together.
I believe from here on these two categories will move closely with NO differences in the cut of dates.
In fact, I think EB2-I dates will follow the EB3-I dates until the next recession or at least till next 3 years.
Here are how the numbers look for these 2 categories in the next 2 years:
-------------------------------
TotalVisas| EB3-I | Eb2-I
-------------------------------
FY2016 |16000 | 4000
FY2017 |16000 | 4000
FY2018 |16000 | 4000
-------------------------------

************

=============

Hi YT,
I am interested too in how you reached the number 16k from your original 20k. Is it simply because of recent faster PERM processing and the EB3ROW inventory and demand may not be as low as you originally thought? If you can elaborate your calculations on 16k, that will be great. Most of us have a much more conservative number in mind.

Jonty Rhodes

05-16-2016, 03:42 PM

FYI,

Greg Siskind's lawsuit against USCIS has been dismissed by the judge and government's motion to deny has been approved. This brings an official closure to the Visagate lawsuit. I am little disappointed but this was not unexpected at all so I am at peace with it.

Co-incidentally today I got the news of this lawsuit dismissal and within minutes I got an email from my attorney that my cap-exempt H1B got approved for 3 more years. I will be starting my 10th year on H1B from mid June, 2016. I have 100% confidence that I will not be current before 2019-2020 with a PD of May 20, 2011 in EB2I, unless some kind of immigration reform happens.

Spectator

05-19-2016, 10:34 AM

This has been posted on the Murthy site http://www.murthy.com/2016/05/19/june-visa-bulletin-explanations-for-retrogression/

It gives some insights into why CO felt the need to retrogress EB2-I so severely.

a) EB1 usage is high and a Cut Off Date may be necessary before year end.

b) EB2-ROW use is very high and no SO within EB2 is anticipated.

If true, that would only leave EB2-I with the base 2.8k allocation.

June Visa Bulletin: Explanations for Retrogression

May 19, 2016

The U.S. Department of State (DOS) provides a monthly visa bulletin "check in" with Charles Oppenheim, Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division. The most recent check in provides insights into some of the unexpected developments in the June 2016 Visa Bulletin, as well as some predictions for upcoming visa bulletins. The cutoff dates discussed below are all from the final action (FA) chart. The U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is only allowing the use of the FA chart in June for purposes of filing an adjustment-of-status application (form I-485).

Employment-Based, First Preference (EB1)

The demand for EB1 worldwide visa numbers continues to be very high. The DOS cautions that, if the demand levels continue at the current rate, "corrective action" (i.e. establishment of a cutoff date) may be necessary before the end of the fiscal year.

Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2)

Worldwide and India

The demand for EB2 worldwide is extremely high. As the result of this demand level, the DOS advises that there will not be any unused numbers available to shift to EB2 India and China.

The combination of high levels of demand for visa numbers in the EB2 India category with the lack of excess numbers from EB2 worldwide, made it necessary to retrogress the EB2 India cutoff date to October 1, 2004. Part of the EB2 India demand is attributed to EB3 upgrade cases, which are not visible to the DOS until the visa number is requested. Greater visibility in this area, according to the DOS, would reduce the need to abruptly retrogress the cutoff date. The DOS expects that the EB2 India cutoff date will advance slowly for the rest of the fiscal year, at a pace similar to the EB3 advancement.

China

The June 2016 Visa Bulletin contains retrogression in the EB2 China category, as well. The cutoff date for EB2 China moves back to January 1, 2010, as does EB3 China. Since the cutoff dates for both categories are the same, and are expected to remain so for the rest of the fiscal year, there will no longer be a motivation for applicants chargeable to China to downgrade from EB2 to EB3 in the immediate future.

Employment-Based, Fourth Preference (EB4)

The DOS expects that the FA cutoff date established in the EB4 category for those chargeable to El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras will remain unchanged for the rest of the fiscal year. It is also expected that EB4 for India and Mexico will retrogress to the same January 1, 2010 cutoff date in the near future. The need for this cutoff date is, in part, due to a lack of excess numbers that would otherwise be available.

Conclusion

As always, the explanations and insights provided by Mr. Oppenheim are appreciated. MurthyDotCom will continue to track developments related to the monthly visa bulletin, and will post updates as new information becomes available.

Copyright © 2016, MURTHY LAW FIRM. All Rights Reserved

Spectator

05-19-2016, 10:50 AM

Here's another one from CI Law Group http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2016/05/18/visa-bulletin-predictions-updates-charles-oppenheim-may-18-2016/

This one mentions for EB3-I that "Gradual forward movement is expected with a possible cutoff date around early 2005 by September Visa Bulletin." That's a bit disappointing to say the least.

Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (May 18, 2016)
By Dimo R. Michailov, Esq.|May 18th, 2016|Articles, News Alert, Visa Bulletin

Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim. Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State. For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards. He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month. Our access and proximity to Mr. Oppenheim allows us to provide immediate updates on expected Visa Bulletin movements and we are proud to be among the first to report.

We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current. As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate the opportunity Mr. Oppenheim has afforded us to get some sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa number trends.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points

No movement is expected in EB-2 and EB-3 China. EB-2 India may move forward very gradually over the next few months with EB-2 ROW and EB-1 India/China are expected to have a cutoff date within the last two Visa Bulletins for the fiscal year (August or September 2016).

General Visa Number Trends

Mr. Oppenheim spent a few minutes to describe the visa number allocation process and reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, especially, the demand for visa numbers is greater because of dependents being added — each green card application case is, therefore, “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children). For example, Mr. Oppenheim has previously indicated that in the not-so-distant past, each employment-based India case took 1.4 visa numbers on average while right now, each employment-based India case takes on average 2.5 visa numbers.

As a result, and in recognition of the additional fact that many EB-3 India and China candidates are now eligible for porting and are now applying under the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the EB-3, in addition to EB-2 visa numbers, are expected to remain oversubscribed, particularly for Indian nationals.

He also indicated that there is a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases and the mechanics of the EB-3 to EB-2 porting do not allow advance notification to the Department of State’s Visa Office. This causes a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases to “appear” without advance warning to the Visa Office and, as a result, the Visa Office has to hold cutoff dates back (or to retrogress) to accommodate such porting case.

Unfortunately, today’s comments by Mr. Oppenheim do not bring much good news for those hoping for fast cutoff date advancement. Mr. Oppenheim shared that he sees a significantly higher than normal demand in the employment-based categories – often two times the historical and expected amount. This, naturally, causes him to hold back the cutoff dates or, as we say in the June 2016 Visa Bulletin, to retrogress significantly.

Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the EB-1 and EB-5 categories are relatively “popular” this year and expects more numbers to be used in these categories, compared to the past years. This high demand also means that there will be less “leftover” visa numbers available to allocate to other categories, such as EB-2 India and China which would further contribute to the slow EB-2 India forward movement.

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months. Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-1 Rest of World (ROW). This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-1 India and China. Due to high demand in this category, there is high likelihood that a cutoff date will be instituted by the September Visa Bulletin.

EB-2 ROW. Due to high demand, it is possible that this category will have a cutoff date by the September Visa Bulletin.

EB-2 China. No movement is expected for the remainder of the fiscal year.

EB-2 India. Likely to stay one week ahead of EB-3 India; possible very gradual forward movement over the next few months.

EB-3 ROW. This category is expected to move forward gradually over the next months to continue to stimulate “demand”.

EB-3 China. No movement is expected for the remainder of the fiscal year.

EB-3 India. Gradual forward movement is expected with a possible cutoff date around early 2005 by September Visa Bulletin.

EB-5. Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is at the highest level ever. For the next fiscal year EB-5 is expected to be current for everyone except EB-5 China (which takes most of the EB-5 immigrant visas).

On Predicting the Visa Bulletin Cutoff Dates

Mr. Oppenheim shared his thoughts on the ability of others outside of his office to predict reliably the cutoff date movements. He suggested that while some of the datapoints that go into determining the cutoff dates are available — demand data, number filings — there is so much more (variables and data, some of which is impossible to get) that goes into a cutoff date determination in each visa bulletin that a reliable prediction is impossible for anyone including, sometimes, the Visa Office of Mr. Oppenheim. There are many variables that affect the demand. For example, the recent retrogression of EB-2 India is due to the fact that there are “extraordinary number” of EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases plus an unexpectedly high demand in EB-2 cases generally. Mr. Oppenheim cannot predict how many of the EB-3 India candidates will end up porting into EB-2 — as a result, by the time he “sees” an EB-2 India case, he has not anticipated for it and has to slow down or retrogress EB-2 India to be able to accommodate EB-2 India applicants with early priority dates.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months. We urge EB-2 ROW and EB-1 India/China applicants to be aware of the possibility of a cutoff date being introduced for a month or two late in the summer. With respect to EB-2 India and China, the high demand likely means that there may not be much notable movement until the new fiscal year begins on October 1, 2016 and the annual visa number allocations are reset.

anuprab

05-19-2016, 12:04 PM

qesehmk

05-19-2016, 12:46 PM

This one mentions for EB3-I that "Gradual forward movement is expected with a possible cutoff date around early 2005 by September Visa Bulletin." That's a bit disappointing to say the least.
Disappointing but I wouldn't count on this being the final word yet.

Spectator

05-19-2016, 12:51 PM

Disappointing but I wouldn't count on this being the final word yet.Q,

Agreed.

anuprab

05-19-2016, 01:02 PM

Q,

Agreed.

I hope you both expect it to be better than early 2005

whereismygc

05-19-2016, 01:09 PM

On Predicting the Visa Bulletin Cutoff Dates

Mr. Oppenheim shared his thoughts on the ability of others outside of his office to predict reliably the cutoff date movements. He suggested that while some of the datapoints that go into determining the cutoff dates are available — demand data, number filings — there is so much more (variables and data, some of which is impossible to get) that goes into a cutoff date determination in each visa bulletin that a reliable prediction is impossible for anyone including, sometimes, the Visa Office of Mr. Oppenheim. There are many variables that affect the demand. For example, the recent retrogression of EB-2 India is due to the fact that there are “extraordinary number” of EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases plus an unexpectedly high demand in EB-2 cases generally. Mr. Oppenheim cannot predict how many of the EB-3 India candidates will end up porting into EB-2 — as a result, by the time he “sees” an EB-2 India case, he has not anticipated for it and has to slow down or retrogress EB-2 India to be able to accommodate EB-2 India applicants with early priority dates.

Looks like WhereismyGC has come out of the phase of people not knowing us. CO although doesn't talk about us - he clearly is talking about WhereismyGC - given we are the only commercial GC prediction service available out there.

We are thankful for his attention and thoughtful comments that convey that prediction is an uncertain endeavor.

Prediction by nature is never accurate. If it is accurate, then more than likely it is a scientific law of nature than a forecast.

At WhereismyGC we have modeled the GC process reasonably well. We have modeled key categories, key countries, their limits and how visas overflow from one category to other as time progresses. We have also modeled any category adjustments due to upgrades downgrades. We have modeled the Counselor processing vs 485s.

Finally, we allow the model to operate on dynamic and flexible inputs. So we can wax and wane the inputs to model based on external incidents.

We don't disagree that with all of this - there still is a fair amount of uncertainty in how events will unfold. We can know only AFTER THE FACT certain policy decisions e.g. clearing backlogs by certain agencies. Those kind of things do throw us off. But in terms of "secular" demand itself - and we have been doing it for almost 3-4 years now - we generally don't get things wrong.

Here is the most important thing that our users should remember:
WhereismyGC doesn't aim to tell you precisely which month you are going to get GC. We will consider ourselves successful if we can predict it well within 2 quarters for 80% people. There will always be 20% people whose GC cases have some idiosyncrasies or get caught up in processing idiosyncrasies. Our prediction can't predict idiosyncrasies.

If we can nail down the prediction to two quarters in a year - that is very useful for people who for last 5-6 years have been thinking that they are going to get GC next year. Case in point are the EB2-I 2009 folks. There are ample people from 2007-8 who received GCs in 2011. So naturally 2009 folks have been eagerly waiting for their turn. Unfortunately the dates keep lingering in 2008 and early 2009 with unfortunate retrogression in 2004-5.

Our forecast is there to give a realistic timeline to such people who should plan their life/career with these realistic data points in mind.

There are things we can control and there are things that we can NOT control. For the things we can't control - it helps if we educate ourselves and establish clarity. That's what WhereismyGC's forecast attempts to do. Good luck and best wishes to everybody.

anuprab

05-19-2016, 03:33 PM

gcq

05-19-2016, 04:01 PM

My first advice to CO, stop predicting visa bulletins. It is not his job. His responsibility is to understand INA properly and allocate visas as per the demand, PD and country quota. He need to worry only about the visa requests coming in from USCIS and allocate it appropriately. Q's site is able to predict movement more accurately than CO because Q and team takes into consideration all available data. All CO listens to is the "accurate information" that he gets from USCIS. So what can he do ? Complain about USCIS inefficiency to administration and stop predicting. He won't complain to administration because that will affect his job security. As a government employee he is getting his salary every month regardless of whether he does his job or not !

amulchandra

05-19-2016, 04:43 PM

This is from
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2016/05/18/visa-bulletin-predictions-updates-charles-oppenheim-may-18-2016/

EB-3 ROW. This category is expected to move forward gradually over the next months to continue to stimulate “demand”.

So looks like CO is trying to stimulate the demand which he is not getting from EB3 ROW. But he doesn't want to accept the fact and release the SO to EB3 I. This shows how pathetic the process is. He is reserving visas for people who did not join the line yet while there are others waiting for more than a decade. This is heights of discrimination.

gcq

05-19-2016, 04:49 PM

This is from
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2016/05/18/visa-bulletin-predictions-updates-charles-oppenheim-may-18-2016/

So looks like CO is trying to stimulate the demand which he is not getting from EB3 ROW. But he doesn't want to accept the fact and release the SO to EB3 I. This shows how pathetic the process is. He is reserving visas for people who did join the line yet while there are others waiting for more than a decade. This is heights of discrimination.

It is better for us to reach to congressman and Senators for CO's discriminatory behavior.

vishnu

05-20-2016, 04:35 AM

That may be true... But I thought he could assess possible visas only in the last quarter. So am hopeful we will have more fireworks in eb3 from next month

This is from
http://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2016/05/18/visa-bulletin-predictions-updates-charles-oppenheim-may-18-2016/

So looks like CO is trying to stimulate the demand which he is not getting from EB3 ROW. But he doesn't want to accept the fact and release the SO to EB3 I. This shows how pathetic the process is. He is reserving visas for people who did not join the line yet while there are others waiting for more than a decade. This is heights of discrimination.

rock581

05-20-2016, 01:44 PM

Can someone post what CO thought of in 2015 and 2014 ? I am getting a deja vu feeling. P.S. : I am not trying to be too hopeful but also don't want to feel awful.

This has been posted on the Murthy site http://www.murthy.com/2016/05/19/june-visa-bulletin-explanations-for-retrogression/

It gives some insights into why CO felt the need to retrogress EB2-I so severely.

a) EB1 usage is high and a Cut Off Date may be necessary before year end.

b) EB2-ROW use is very high and no SO within EB2 is anticipated.

If true, that would only leave EB2-I with the base 2.8k allocation.

GCwaiting

05-20-2016, 10:52 PM

Q,

Agreed.
Spec,
What, in your opinion, are the chances of EB3I FAD crossing Mar2005 or reaching the Filing date?

mechanical13

05-23-2016, 12:43 PM

Hi guys,

Any updates to the EB2 predictions for rest of the year and next year, based on the most current information we have available?

Q - the predictions on whereismyGC has been unchanged since the last update. Is that prediction still valid?

Thanks,

richie.rich

05-23-2016, 02:32 PM

ht1234

05-23-2016, 05:23 PM

Sometimes I think, is it really worth the wait? I will be turning 40 in next few months. Had lot of dreams and energy which I see fading away now. My PD is Sep 2010 and not sure when I will get my GC. It's been 8 years since we went to India. Kids are growing fast.

So I still feel if it is worth waiting. Sometimes I feel to pack up everything and just move back to India :mad:. I think we will take that decision also shortly as we do not see any ray of hope here.

Why did you not go to India for 8 years? Worried about stamping? Join a Full time employer and leave the shady desi consultancy!

smithsingh

05-23-2016, 10:35 PM

Sometimes I think, is it really worth the wait? I will be turning 40 in next few months. Had lot of dreams and energy which I see fading away now. My PD is Sep 2010 and not sure when I will get my GC. It's been 8 years since we went to India. Kids are growing fast.

So I still feel if it is worth waiting. Sometimes I feel to pack up everything and just move back to India :mad:. I think we will take that decision also shortly as we do not see any ray of hope here.

If it is getting that difficult then you should do what your heart says.

kd2008

05-24-2016, 03:13 PM

Sometimes I think, is it really worth the wait? I will be turning 40 in next few months. Had lot of dreams and energy which I see fading away now. My PD is Sep 2010 and not sure when I will get my GC. It's been 8 years since we went to India. Kids are growing fast.

So I still feel if it is worth waiting. Sometimes I feel to pack up everything and just move back to India :mad:. I think we will take that decision also shortly as we do not see any ray of hope here.

What has going to India got to do with the wait? I am also Sept 2010. I usually go to India every 8 months or so ..about 3 times every two years. Hopefully twice a year once my company moves to a PTO policy next year.

GCwaiting

05-26-2016, 12:08 AM

http://www.murthy.com/2016/05/25/dos-provides-further-visa-bulletin-details-and-predictions/
In this link there is a comment about EB3

Little Demand for EB3 Worldwide Category

The DOS reports that there is very little demand in the EB3 worldwide, category. Thus, the cutoff date remains close to current. EB3 India will benefit by the shift of some otherwise unused visa numbers from EB3 worldwide. DOS predictions are that EB3 India will advance to February or March 2005 by September 2016.

Looking for opinion of experts here. So will EB3-I move to cover March2005 or mid 2005 or whole of 2005?
Don't see it on any other website.

srisri

05-26-2016, 03:16 PM

smuggymba

05-27-2016, 10:09 AM

I'll be more than happy if EB3-I clears out, those folks (barring few substitute labor) have been waiting for a long time. Hope this is their year and they actually get through this.

Also, is there a way to complain about EB1-C abuse by companies without giving any beneficiary name. I know a company abusing this category but don't want to cause any trouble to its employees.

I hate to bring up the animosity/jealousy or whatever you call it b/w I/C vs ROW, EB2 vs EB3, EB1-C vs other...since in the eyes on American politicians, we're all in one bucket - Immigrants. They don't know and care about EB2, EB3 etc. In fact, when you talk to the admins in office of these politicians, they don't know EB2, EB3, PD etc, all they know is we're "high skilled" and waiting for GC's.

But becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future and it makes me mad when I see these people who work for me as contractors filing in EB1C from Infosys, Genpact, CTS etc. They update documentation, test, run scripts, solve tickets and then end up getting GC in 5 months. I have see 50 people who I know over the last 3-4 years.

Maybe highlighting this EB1C abuse will be the only option for people with later PD's. Mine is 2010 and I have EAD so in 2-3 years I might get GC. But for ppl with PD's in 2011, 2012 and onwards, this might get more ugly.

srimurthy

05-27-2016, 10:53 AM

I hate to bring up the animosity/jealousy or whatever you call it b/w I/C vs ROW, EB2 vs EB3, EB1-C vs other...since in the eyes on American politicians, we're all in one bucket - Immigrants. They don't know and care about EB2, EB3 etc. In fact, when you talk to the admins in office of these politicians, they don't know EB2, EB3, PD etc, all they know is we're "high skilled" and waiting for GC's.

But becoming increasingly pessimistic about the future and it makes me mad when I see these people who work for me as contractors filing in EB1C from Infosys, Genpact, CTS etc. They update documentation, test, run scripts, solve tickets and then end up getting GC in 5 months. I have see 50 people who I know over the last 3-4 years.

Maybe highlighting this EB1C abuse will be the only option for people with later PD's. Mine is 2010 and I have EAD so in 2-3 years I might get GC. But for ppl with PD's in 2011, 2012 and onwards, this might get more ugly.

Its a change to even hear that people doing documentation and testing are being filed in EB1 by companies like Infosys, Genpact, CTS etc when earlier they never used to file for GC until they reach the 6th year or so. Especially knowing very well that once anyone gets a GC, they are free birds.

I am a 2010 prospect and was thinking the dates will come for the last two years and have been pushing it out every year by two year. I am not even sure if I get to file for EAD in the next two year.

mfd1402

05-27-2016, 11:03 AM

Its a change to even hear that people doing documentation and testing are being filed in EB1 by companies like Infosys, Genpact, CTS etc when earlier they never used to file for GC until they reach the 6th year or so. Especially knowing very well that once anyone gets a GC, they are free birds.

I am a 2010 prospect and was thinking the dates will come for the last two years and have been pushing it out every year by two year. I am not even sure if I get to file for EAD in the next two year.

I would like to find out if there is anyway that we can report such blatant abuse .... I have searched online but not found any place where we can email facts viz names, poitions etc to USCIS so they can investigate eb1C abuse .... i have found email where USCIS encourages ppl to report eb5 abuse or fraud but nothing regarding eb1C .....

gcq

05-27-2016, 11:38 AM

anuprab

05-27-2016, 11:58 AM

Being in immigration queue in uncertainty is bad. Doesn't everyone at least agree on that ?
So people will try whatever routes they have at their disposal to get GC. Some try EB2, some try EB1. At the end of day it is just a rat race !

I agree..this is all because the system is all messed up. Given a chance anyone will try this route given that other routes have 10-15 year wait. EB1C abuse is difficult to prove. All the big companies have big lawyers doing these cases. reporting abuse is one thing, proving it is another. Plus i think we will end up digging our own grave

srisri

05-27-2016, 12:11 PM

I agree..this is all because the system is all messed up. Given a chance anyone will try this route given that other routes have 10-15 year wait. EB1C abuse is difficult to prove. All the big companies have big lawyers doing these cases. reporting abuse is one thing, proving it is another. Plus i think we will end up digging our own grave

I think the abuse is blatant these days, I have seen a guy with less than 4 years already hold a GC. I recently heard that CTS is allowing its employees use their choice of attorney and don't have to go thru company attorneys because the company attorneys are becoming a bottleneck. Now coming to the anise of it, if USCIS can ask a simple question on why do they need 600 managers every year and ask for the already approved candidates info all the companies will fall into place.

BTW, I don't want to digress the agenda of this thread, please move my posts to appropriate thread.

na_dev

05-27-2016, 01:18 PM

There was a post in Trackitt by user maveric70 about the general attitude of Government towards Employment immigration especially towards Indians..it definitely deserves at least one read.

************
Posted by maverick70 (62) 21 May 2016#5045
to sath1982:

Look at all of you. Squabbling over a few 2803 EB-1 visas per year for India and a few 'thousand' more that EB-1 India gets and horizontal carryover in that category

The fundamental problem is non-acceptance of Indians as Immigrants. That's the mentality. They have absolutely no problem in keeping you a non-immigrant for decades. In the same token they see DACA children as Americans and DAPA parents as Americans. They have no issues in processing a million DACA applications in 3 months while your extension takes over 9 months. They have absolutely no hesitation in adding more restrictions to your work permit. Change city file an amendment. Change employer file amendment, finishing 3 years file an extension.

Travel outside with a valid extension the department of state has no hesitation in denying you a visa at the consulate knowing very well that you are living the productive part of your career in the country and will have hardships if you can't come back to take kids out of school and sell or donate your belongings house car etc and find a new job back home. In the same token they are ready to hand out 5 million EAD with freedom to work and travel. Not that I have anything against treating undocumented humanely but you handle millions humanely but you put so many restrictions on a few thousand? Why?

Form I-129 is like 30 pages long. DACA/DAPA application is like not even a page. You struggle to get your Drivers License renewed even though doing things the right way while they are doled out without restrictions to thousands.

While you and your children who either born here or brought here as kids are still non-immigrants. They don't see you as Americans contributing to communities, societies, schools paying taxes, making your organization competitive by working hard. Wake up. Smell the coffee. See the reality.

It's a two way street. You are being exploited for decades. At 2803 visas per year for India a person applying in EB2 today will get greened in 2042 and a person applying in EB3 will get greened 2103. Yes do the the math. So why are they accepting and approving I-140 applications knowing very well they will not be able to keep their commitment of giving an immigrant visa for such a long time.

People will die or be in their old age by the time their dates will be current. Do you think they don't know this but have no compassion or empathy and can't even give an EAD to people who are contributing. Really they talk about fairness?

So let whoever can use EB-1 let them use and exploit it. Why talk of fairness when there is no fairness in the system. I would love all 40040 EB-1 visas to be granted to Indians. Let EB2/EB3 categories be overrun by Indians. After all they are allowing the family based and undocumented category to be run over by millions from South America.

Again I will repeat nothing against the people who are getting benefits. Their situation deserves it. And I will repeat it's the mindset that we are not deserving for some reason and need to be restricted choked in freedom of thought, movement and restriction that I have a huge issue with. That mentality needs to go for us to succeed. We are productive lawyers, doctors, nurses, scientists, programmers, equity traders, hedge fund managers CTOs/CIOs, engineers and this is the treatment we get? I am not saying treat us specially but at least treat us fairly worthy of our contributions.

Stop squabbling, thinking of fairness and stop blaming your own country fellows for your situation. The problem resides somewhere else.

gcq

05-27-2016, 01:48 PM

Interesting post. The only difference I see between illegals and us legals are there are employers wanting us to be in this state. In case of illegals, they don't have employers. They need to work only with politicians, Remember how companies successfully screwed up the EAD program for legals. They are large corporations with billions and their people are in all govt departments like USCIS and DHS.

geterdone

05-31-2016, 10:49 AM

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2016-4.pdf

EB3Iwaiting

05-31-2016, 11:25 AM

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB-I-485-PendingInventory-2016-4.pdf

I am pretty happy looking at the April inventory for EB3I:

- EB3ROW has pretty much stayed steady going down from 12,212 to 12,099. Which means the increase in PERM certifications had little effect in the EB3ROW inventory. This is extremely good news.

-EB3I inventory went down from 19,827 to 18,047 a decease in 1780. The quarterly quota is 720 so the rest of inventory thinned (around 1K) thinned out due to porting. Again, good for us.

Looks like the increase in the PERM certifications is yet to show up on the pending inventory. This could lead to more SO this year and less next year???

Spec, YT, other gurus...waiting for your input.

qesehmk

05-31-2016, 01:26 PM

Suva2001

05-31-2016, 01:39 PM

It's mindboggling to see Indians still porting from EB3 to EB2. Guys ... stop this madness. EB2 is not moving any faster than EB3.

The latest inventory insights are as follows:
1. EB4 may be running under and may yield some numbers.
2. EB1 is having more demand than supply. So much so that it will probably eat up any spillover as well.
3. EB3 seems to be holding steady - that is very surprising and kind of bad news for EB3I.
4. EB2 also holding steady - this was expected bad news for EB2I.

So net net - it's #3 that is really surprising.

Why do you say "It's mindboggling to see Indians still porting from EB3 to EB2. Guys ... stop this madness. EB2 is not moving any faster than EB3."?

There is very very low demand till Sep, 2008. Demand up to this date is created by porting applicants. So even with normal quota (2803) any EB3I appicant with PD earlier than this would get GC in 1st 8-9 months of each financial year. So I believe your statement is incorrect.

Thanks

qesehmk

05-31-2016, 01:58 PM

Why do you say "It's mindboggling to see Indians still porting from EB3 to EB2. Guys ... stop this madness. EB2 is not moving any faster than EB3."?

There is very very low demand till Sep, 2008. Demand up to this date is created by porting applicants. So even with normal quota (2803) any EB3I appicant with PD earlier than this would get GC in 1st 8-9 months of each financial year. So I believe your statement is incorrect.

Thanks

Touche. I agree I was a bit over the top. But try to understand the point. EB2-I is at this point positioned worst - worse than EB3-I - except of course the fact that it is still ahead in terms of dates. But in terms of visa availability EB3-I is positioned better.

We don't know how this will play out. So while for a minority porting may still be attractive - for majority the porting to EB2 is no longer any more attractive than the possibility of EB3 dates catching upto EB2 or even exceeding in next few years.

EB3Iwaiting

05-31-2016, 02:09 PM

3. EB3 seems to be holding steady - that is very surprising and kind of bad news for EB3I.

So net net - it's #3 that is really surprising.

Q, why would you say this is bad news for EB3I? EB3ROW PD has moved 4 years in the last year alone but has not retrogressed even with that aggressive movement. The reason is clear as the pending inventory has been steady at 11k to 12k. Even with the faster PERM certifications, EB3ROW (and EB2ROW) inventory have not increased. Considering EB3ROW has remained steady at 12k even though the category is technically current points to a good year for EB3I.

I would like to know why you say this is bad news for EB3I? Were you expecting the EB3ROW inventory to be lower?

qesehmk

05-31-2016, 02:20 PM

Q, why would you say this is bad news for EB3I? EB3ROW PD has moved 4 years in the last year alone but has not retrogressed even with that aggressive movement. The reason is clear as the pending inventory has been steady at 11k to 12k. Even with the faster PERM certifications, EB3ROW (and EB2ROW) inventory have not increased. Considering EB3ROW has remained steady at 12k even though the category is technically current points to a good year for EB3I.

I would like to know why you say this is bad news for EB3I? Were you expecting the EB3ROW inventory to be lower?

Yes I would've expected EB3ROW to be lower than in October.

The aggresive movement you mention already happened last year. It also became clear last year itself that it was sustainable i.e. thre was no need for retrogression.

So teh response of govt agencies is to clear PERMs and 140s... that's how they are trying to generate demand. But the fundamentally EB3ROW has not much demand and that is why I say fundamentals are very strong for EB3I. But in the meantime the agencies it seem are successful in holding back EB3-I from benefitting by doing as much as they can to generate EB3ROW demand.

That's the bad news that EB3-I otherwise should be getting a load of ununsed visas. This report kind of raised a small question mark on those prospects.

anuprab

05-31-2016, 02:48 PM

Yes I would've expected EB3ROW to be lower than in October.

The aggresive movement you mention already happened last year. It also became clear last year itself that it was sustainable i.e. thre was no need for retrogression.

So teh response of govt agencies is to clear PERMs and 140s... that's how they are trying to generate demand. But the fundamentally EB3ROW has not much demand and that is why I say fundamentals are very strong for EB3I. But in the meantime the agencies it seem are successful in holding back EB3-I from benefitting by doing as much as they can to generate EB3ROW demand.

That's the bad news that EB3-I otherwise should be getting a load of ununsed visas. This report kind of raised a small question mark on those prospects.

looks like their sole aim is to dole out visas to RoW than Indians stuck for decades. Between one quarter the pending apps for Eb3 Row category has gone up to 3.8k from 1.7k. so they processed 2k AoS apps for RoW to put them in the pipeline for approval in just 3 months.

Jagan01

05-31-2016, 04:09 PM

4. EB2 also holding steady - this was expected bad news for EB2I.

Q,

I beg to differ from the EB2 analysis. I can see some good news in the EB2ROW pending inventory.

Lets compare FY2015 and FY2016 as far as EB2ROW pending inventory goes.

FY15 Jan PI - 17,994
FY15 Apr PI - 19,878

FY15 had an increase of almost 2k in the PI between Jan and Apr pending inventory in spite of a record number of approvals.

FY16 Jan PI - 19,466
FY16 Apr PI - 18,828

FY16 had a decrease of 600 between Jan and Apr pending inventory. This means there were more processed than the newly available demand.

As of Apr 2016 there are 1000 lesser pending applications as compared to Apr 2015. This makes me hope that number of EB2ROW approvals from Apr - Sep will be lesser in 2016 as compared to 2015.

May be it is my wishful thinking because I would get a chance at GC if EB2ROW yielded 1.5K SO to EB2I :)

qesehmk

05-31-2016, 09:21 PM

Thanks Jagan. I wouldn't conclude anything so conclusively eitherway because the reduction could be noise.

That's why I would stick to last year's consumption pattern + this year's increase in PERMs - both of which together paint a bleak picture.

Q,

I beg to differ from the EB2 analysis. I can see some good news in the EB2ROW pending inventory.

Lets compare FY2015 and FY2016 as far as EB2ROW pending inventory goes.

FY15 Jan PI - 17,994
FY15 Apr PI - 19,878

FY15 had an increase of almost 2k in the PI between Jan and Apr pending inventory in spite of a record number of approvals.

FY16 Jan PI - 19,466
FY16 Apr PI - 18,828

FY16 had a decrease of 600 between Jan and Apr pending inventory. This means there were more processed than the newly available demand.

As of Apr 2016 there are 1000 lesser pending applications as compared to Apr 2015. This makes me hope that number of EB2ROW approvals from Apr - Sep will be lesser in 2016 as compared to 2015.

May be it is my wishful thinking because I would get a chance at GC if EB2ROW yielded 1.5K SO to EB2I :)

GCwaiting

05-31-2016, 11:40 PM

I am pretty happy looking at the April inventory for EB3I:

- EB3ROW has pretty much stayed steady going down from 12,212 to 12,099. Which means the increase in PERM certifications had little effect in the EB3ROW inventory. This is extremely good news.

-EB3I inventory went down from 19,827 to 18,047 a decease in 1780. The quarterly quota is 720 so the rest of inventory thinned (around 1K) thinned out due to porting. Again, good for us.

Looks like the increase in the PERM certifications is yet to show up on the pending inventory. This could lead to more SO this year and less next year???

Spec, YT, other gurus...waiting for your input.

Waiting for input from Spec, YT & other gurus !!

YTeleven

06-01-2016, 06:17 PM

Waiting for input from Spec, YT & other gurus !!

EB3-I folks, Don't get disappointed... I don't see any red flags with this I-485 report with respect to EB3-I expected SO... I'm still hopeful that there will be big SO to EB3-I.
We have predicted that will happen in the last quarter hence urge you guys to wait till the end of the last quarter and see.
I'm not here to provide any false hopes.. when I had projected that chart 2 years ago it was a calculated guess.. I still think it will happen to greater extent unless CO wastes the visas like last year.

one way of looking at this report is :
Compare the numbers under all EB-2 and EB-3 categories.. we know that this year EB2-I will get max 4k out of total 40k of EB-2 and whereas we are expecting in EB3-I, 16k out of total 40K of EB-3.
you should be able to see that difference when you compare all the available numbers under EB-2 and EB-3 categories.
I don't want to speculate any more and would like to wait and watch till the end of September.

mfd1402

06-01-2016, 06:45 PM

what I am surprised is that if eb3row is not getting enough demand why does eb3row have a cutoff date should it be current like eb2row.... this is totally wierd .... why make eb2row current and not eb3row unless eb3row is oversubscribed

HarepathekaIntezar

06-01-2016, 07:07 PM

EB3-I folks, Don't get disappointed... I don't see any red flags with this I-485 report with respect to EB3-I expected SO... I'm still hopeful that there will be big SO to EB3-I.
We have predicted that will happen in the last quarter hence urge you guys to wait till the end of the last quarter and see.
I'm not here to provide any false hopes.. when I had projected that chart 2 years ago it was a calculated guess.. I still think it will happen to greater extent unless CO wastes the visas like last year.

one way of looking at this report is :
Compare the numbers under all EB-2 and EB-3 categories.. we know that this year EB2-I will get max 4k out of total 40k of EB-2 and whereas we are expecting in EB3-I, 16k out of total 40K of EB-3.
you should be able to see that difference when you compare all the available numbers under EB-2 and EB-3 categories.
I don't want to speculate any more and would like to wait and watch till the end of September.

I am totally with you, but like @mfd1402 said, why is EB3ROW not Current when EB2ROW is Current? Why has USCIS not generated RFE's to EB3I beyond Feb2005? These are the head scratchers..

gcq

06-01-2016, 08:44 PM

gcq

06-01-2016, 08:49 PM

I am totally with you, but like @mfd1402 said, why is EB3ROW not Current when EB2ROW is Current? Why has USCIS not generated RFE's to EB3I beyond Feb2005? These are the head scratchers..

USCIS is not generating RFE beyond Feb 2005 probably because CO is "predicting" somehow he is going to get EB3-ROW applications from MARS. So USCIS won't generate RFE unless they are damn sure that application is going to be approved in a year or that EB3-I candidate will be wasting their money, USCIS will be wasting their effort. All this is based on false prediction by CO. IMO what is going to happen by last quarter is very different from what our genius CO is predicting. Dates are going to move drastically. 1 month is all that is needed for an applicant to respond to all standard RFEs. Unless somebody is going to go after CO, he will do this every year.

mfd1402

06-01-2016, 09:03 PM

It's weird ..... I would expect at least 40% eb3i ppl have ported to eb2 over the last few yrs.... At least by moving dates we will get an accurate demand estimate for eb3i and reduction of porting

mfd1402

06-01-2016, 09:06 PM

The only explanation I can think of CO not moving eb3i dates is that he expects every 1 application to generate 3 or 4 apps due to kids , wife etc

suninphx

06-01-2016, 09:37 PM

EB3-I folks, Don't get disappointed... I don't see any red flags with this I-485 report with respect to EB3-I expected SO... I'm still hopeful that there will be big SO to EB3-I.
We have predicted that will happen in the last quarter hence urge you guys to wait till the end of the last quarter and see.
I'm not here to provide any false hopes.. when I had projected that chart 2 years ago it was a calculated guess.. I still think it will happen to greater extent unless CO wastes the visas like last year.

one way of looking at this report is :
Compare the numbers under all EB-2 and EB-3 categories.. we know that this year EB2-I will get max 4k out of total 40k of EB-2 and whereas we are expecting in EB3-I, 16k out of total 40K of EB-3.
you should be able to see that difference when you compare all the available numbers under EB-2 and EB-3 categories.
I don't want to speculate any more and would like to wait and watch till the end of September.

16K to EB3I would be great. In addition to much desrved relief to EB3I people waiting for over a decade this would probably save 2-3K of ported Visas for EB2I.

Dondraper

06-03-2016, 12:57 PM

It looks like once the EB3-i dates move beyond 2007, they will zoom past EB2 for a long time.

Spectator

06-08-2016, 11:44 AM

DHS has finally published the FY2014 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics and the accompanying Tables.

The main page is here (https://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics).

Obviously, no sign of the FY2015 figures!!

Edit:- I know people are interested in the EB1 breakdown. Here it is for the primary applicants:

EB1A -- 24.5%
EB1B -- 18.5%
EB1C -- 57.0%
Total - 100.0%

EB3Iwaiting

06-08-2016, 12:29 PM

EB3Iwaiting

06-08-2016, 02:39 PM

July VB released:

https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-july-2016.html

EB2I - 1 Nov 2004

EB3I - 22nd Oct 2004.

Still no spillover. We have to wait for the last 2 months. CO wants to give every available GC to ROWs before applying SO.

anuprab

06-08-2016, 02:55 PM

gcq

06-08-2016, 03:25 PM

I am scared there will be wastage. Can they process that many visas when they even havent issued that many RFEs yet??

Unless we do something about it, this will continue !

anuprab

06-08-2016, 03:35 PM

Unless we do something about it, this will continue !

depressed and helpless because there is nothing we can do about this...at this rate feel like packing up and going back.

suninphx

06-08-2016, 08:32 PM

smuggymba

06-09-2016, 08:06 AM

Thanks Spec!

So apparently more 'managers' are required than research scholars ...excellent

I have seen a whole team onsite of Infosys/Genpact get EB1C GC's over the last 2-3 years. Some testers will be appying for citizenship when I'll re renewing my EAD for the 4th time.

I was ok with "account managers" getting EB1C GC's (even though they're just resource managers who are onsite), now it's on a ridicoulous scale. Everyone is invited.

gcq

06-09-2016, 09:57 AM

depressed and helpless because there is nothing we can do about this...at this rate feel like packing up and going back.
We are not helpless. If CO was acting as per law and in the spirit of law, it is ok to feel helpless. Even then you can petition lawmakers to change the law. If CO is holding dates for EB3-ROW and EB3-I against law, it should be challenged.

iatiam

06-09-2016, 10:15 AM

I have seen a whole team onsite of Infosys/Genpact get EB1C GC's over the last 2-3 years. Some testers will be appying for citizenship when I'll re renewing my EAD for the 4th time.

I was ok with "account managers" getting EB1C GC's (even though they're just resource managers who are onsite), now it's on a ridicoulous scale. Everyone is invited.

I want to feel optimistic and say that things will get better from now on. There was a time in 2005-2007 when even worse abuses were happening like pre-adjucated I-485's and then USCIS stepped up and put an end to all that non-sense. Now there is all this EB1 abuse and its only a matter of time before it comes in the radar and scrutinized.

When there is a tide, all boats will rise. If and when economy tanks, a lot of people will go under. We just have to be patient till that happens. I am not discounting the power of legislation but given the toxic political situation we are in, the chances of that happening is minimum to none.

Its darkest before the dawn.

Iatiam

hope21

06-09-2016, 03:09 PM

I am totally with you on this..CO and company/law makers think they are doing a great job by abiding by the laws like the per country limit. If they think so, I am okay with that…. Can’t they think rationally that how can they give away GCs to these EB1 folks who are not even managers in the first place (basic definition of LIA Visa). If they know it, how can they let it happen, how can they let them misuse it time and again, especially , when EB2 and EB3 folks are at a stand still and does not even look like situation is going to improve in the next 1/ 1 and half years ahead.

Can’t they think logically for once how easy it is to fix it. All they need to do is - implement minimum wage requirements for these so called managerial categories L1A (to be at par with H1) – meaning, for any managerial categories, minimum wage requirement should be 120k/125k (which is also an industry standard) and also By doing this, 75 to 80% of the L1 folks will not qualify and only real managers will qualify…. But its just basic logic/common sense (which somehow they want to ignore), I don’t know the reason why? Spec/Q and other gurus, do you know why?

We are not helpless. If CO was acting as per law and in the spirit of law, it is ok to feel helpless. Even then you can petition lawmakers to change the law. If CO is holding dates for EB3-ROW and EB3-I against law, it should be challenged.

hope21

06-09-2016, 03:16 PM

Iatiam,

I am also an optimist person, but this abuse is happening for quite a while now, its high time they should take action - not sure what could go wrong if they implement minimum wage requirements for EB1 GCs.... they will certainly be so called within law (which they are mostly worried about)...

qesehmk

06-09-2016, 11:20 PM

hope21 - one can sense your anguish. I will first address your question about salary requirements and then speak about the topic in general.

Wages vary across industries. If wages were the determinant of GC eligibility then you would see candidates mostly from financial, pharmaceutical, healthcare or technology industry in that order.

I have seen individual contributor roles earning north of 300K and managers of 1000 people earning 120K - this is within one industry.

As per the whole debate about who has better claim over GC - L1/EB1 vs US educated (MS MBA etc); USCIS/DOS don't aim to provide GCs to the most bright people. They have an economic objective to meet. And they have made certain categories with certain rules. Those 4-5K indians are actually fulfilling those requirements. Your or mine personal opinion about "who deserves what" don't really matter to USCIS/DOS.

Besides Indians are being robbed of 50K or so visas every year. How? because they are getting 7% of visa supply as opposed to 50-60% demand for visas that Indians constitute. You should be asking - why this discrimination in visa allocation. That law itself is soooooooo discriminatory.

If I were you and felt like doing anything - I would spend my time and energy fighting the per country quota. That is the biggest EVIL in immigration.

EB1-C India folks are not a problem at all.

I am totally with you on this..CO and company/law makers think they are doing a great job by abiding by the laws like the per country limit. If they think so, I am okay with that…. Can’t they think rationally that how can they give away GCs to these EB1 folks who are not even managers in the first place (basic definition of LIA Visa). If they know it, how can they let it happen, how can they let them misuse it time and again, especially , when EB2 and EB3 folks are at a stand still and does not even look like situation is going to improve in the next 1/ 1 and half years ahead.

Can’t they think logically for once how easy it is to fix it. All they need to do is - implement minimum wage requirements for these so called managerial categories L1A (to be at par with H1) – meaning, for any managerial categories, minimum wage requirement should be 120k/125k (which is also an industry standard) and also By doing this, 75 to 80% of the L1 folks will not qualify and only real managers will qualify…. But its just basic logic/common sense (which somehow they want to ignore), I don’t know the reason why? Spec/Q and other gurus, do you know why?

EB3Iwaiting

06-10-2016, 07:37 AM

They have an economic objective to meet. And they have made certain categories with certain rules. Those 4-5K indians are actually fulfilling those requirements. Your or mine personal opinion about "who deserves what" don't really matter to USCIS/DOS.

It applies to everyone who has an approved PERM and I-140. That proves your skills are required by your company here, you are paid the correct wage and the company could not find an American to do your job. So, for an Employment Based GC, why discriminate based on country of birth? It matters for Family Based. The reason is they do not want any country to dominate immigration pattern in any category, be it FB or EB.

If I were you and felt like doing anything - I would spend my time and energy fighting the per country quota. That is the biggest EVIL in immigration.

EB1-C India folks are not a problem at all.

Agree. Removing per country quota is important. We can go on debating this. But for the reason I posted in bold, it is an uphill task. But we should also work to recapture all GCs that still remain wasted.

suninphx

06-10-2016, 08:50 AM

EB1-C India folks are not a problem at all.

for me -this is very disappointing statement from someone like Q! I have observed over the years whenever some one says something about EB1C, there is always always supportive post from Q.

Of course, he is entitled to his own opinion,more so, being owner of the blog. May be one should wait 7-8-9 or more years to get GC to understand the pain.

And btw - are you talking about 4-5k primary applicants? Because EB1C India takes much more than that - AFAIK.

And removing country quota will not solve something overnight. It will stall take years to clear current backlog. May be visa recapture is needed first followed by removing of country quota.

anuprab

06-10-2016, 08:51 AM

It applies to everyone who has an approved PERM and I-140. That proves your skills are required by your company here, you are paid the correct wage and the company could not find an American to do your job. So, for an Employment Based GC, why discriminate based on country of birth? It matters for Family Based. The reason is they do not want any country to dominate immigration pattern in any category, be it FB or EB.

Agree. Removing per country quota is important. We can go on debating this. But for the reason I posted in bold, it is an uphill task. But we should also work to recapture all GCs that still remain wasted.

is there a way we can recapture previously wasted greencards? There was a reference to this in the EO but then nothing happened. This is easily done as those unused greencards were never issued. Why are people waiting in line paying for inefficiencies of USCIS...thats why i said I am frustrated, nothing good has come out of the EO or Obama in his all 8 years..disappointed is an understatement at this point in time.

qesehmk

06-10-2016, 09:49 AM

Sun - it is disappointing because you are approaching it from emotional angle rather than rational one.

please allow me to tell you something about myself. I waited 11 years before I received a green card. Inspite of directly being hired out of mba school by a fortune 100 CIO I had a 11 year wait because I made a stupid mistake of NOT insisting on that they file GC right away. Thus, I know your pain. I am not oblivious to it. It is out of that shared pain that this blog was born.

Your observation is part right. I step not just when someone vents frustration on EB1C India but pretty much when one vents their frustration on any other immigration group.

I do it because the American immigration system is flawed at best and exploitative at worst. First the number 140K is paltry compared to demand. Second it is not FIFO. It discriminates based on country of birth.

I will say it again that EB1C India consumes 5K - perhaps 7K (including dependents). Total EB1India probably consumes 10K at best. You think a country of 1.2B can't produce 5K EB1C?

As I said - your response is emotional and comparative. "Uski kameez meri kameez se safed kaisi" type response. Focus on causes why YOU are waiting in the line for decades. EB1C-India is least of your worries. Imagine what if DoS started using 140K strictly for primary and used family visas or dependents. There wouldn't be any backlog. Imagine if there are no country quotas - then everybody will have a 2-3 year wait time instead of a few waiting decades.

Imagine on the other hand that EB1C India is banned. You tell me what that does other than give YOU a GC (assuming you are somewhere in 2009/2010 EB2 range). It does squat for EB3 because the visas will never reach EB3.

If you think country quota is an impossible task and recapture is more realistic then why don't you go and file a FoI request about an audit of 2015 visa issuance. I have said it previously that I have a strong suspicion that in 2015 visas were wasted most likely because DoS/USCIS applied the visas twice to candidates that ported. Verify that hunch. The math doesn't add up between 2014 inventory and 2015 inventory. Check it out yourself.

EB3waiting - why don't you try that?

for me -this is very disappointing statement from someone like Q! I have observed over the years whenever some one says something about EB1C, there is always always supportive post from Q.

Of course, he is entitled to his own opinion,more so, being owner of the blog. May be one should wait 7-8-9 or more years to get GC to understand the pain.

And btw - are you talking about 4-5k primary applicants? Because EB1C India takes much more than that - AFAIK.

And removing country quota will not solve something overnight. It will stall take years to clear current backlog. May be visa recapture is needed first followed by removing of country quota.

suninphx

06-10-2016, 10:01 AM

Sun - it is disappointing because you are approaching it from emotional angle rather than rational one.

please allow me to tell you something about myself. I waited 11 years before I received a green card. Inspite of directly being hired out of mba school by a fortune 100 CIO I had a 11 year wait because I made a stupid mistake of NOT insisting on that they file GC right away. Thus, I know your pain. I am not oblivious to it. It is out of that shared pain that this blog was born.

Your observation is part right. I step not just when someone vents frustration on EB1C India but pretty much when one vents their frustration on any other immigration group.

I do it because the American immigration system is flawed at best and exploitative at worst. First the number 140K is paltry compared to demand. Second it is not FIFO. It discriminates based on country of birth.

I will say it again that EB1C India consumes 5K - perhaps 7K (including dependents). Total EB1India probably consumes 10K at best. You think a country of 1.2B can't produce 5K EB1C?

As I said - your response is emotional and comparative. "Uski kameez meri kameez se safed kaisi" type response. Focus on causes why YOU are waiting in the line for decades. EB1C-India is least of your worries. Imagine what if DoS started using 140K strictly for primary and used family visas or dependents. There wouldn't be any backlog. Imagine if there are no country quotas - then everybody will have a 2-3 year wait time instead of a few waiting decades.

Imagine on the other hand that EB1C India is banned. You tell me what that does other than give YOU a GC (assuming you are somewhere in 2009/2010 EB2 range). It does squat for EB3 because the visas will never reach EB3.

If you think country quota is an impossible task and recapture is more realistic then why don't you go and file a FoI request about an audit of 2015 visa issuance. I have said it previously that I have a strong suspicion that in 2015 visas were wasted most likely because DoS/USCIS applied the visas twice to candidates that ported. Verify that hunch. The math doesn't add up between 2014 inventory and 2015 inventory. Check it out yourself.

EB3waiting - why don't you try that?

Q- we are talking about the wait time from PD. And if my memory serves me right its less than 5 years for you- The way you calculated 11 years..someone might be waiting for 15 years...so lets not go there. Use of "Uski kameez meri kameez se safed kaisi" is completely out of context. Rest of the post I don't even want to comment.

anuprab

06-10-2016, 10:13 AM

Q- we are talking about the wait time from PD. And if my memory serves me right its less than 5 years for you- The way you calculated 11 years..someone might be waiting for 15 years...so lets not go there. Use of "Uski kameez meri kameez se safed kaisi" is completely out of context. Rest of the post I don't even want to comment.

i agree with Q that Eb1C is least of our problems but in response to Q, I guess this is easy for people to complain and get resolved! imagine trying to get country quota removed or dependents removed or recapture wasted visas! hence the rant against Eb1C

EB3Iwaiting

06-10-2016, 10:13 AM

EB3waiting - why don't you try that?

A few of us had filed FOIA request to USCIS. They denied it saying the info is too much and it will cost them a lot of money to "take printouts" to give us the data. I have the letter saved somewhere, I can post it. Greg submitted an FOIA request too and they asked for $2000 for printouts. I think they did submit that money from the crowdfunding they did. I do not know what happened next.

Some of us also prepared an extensive set of documents showing how many GCs still remain wasted and were never recaptured. We prepared everything to file a lawsuit to get the courts to recapture wasted visas. We prepared a legal brief expressing why USCIS should do it and not wait for Congress. The retrogressed countries are the only ones affected by the visa wastage as ROWs still continue to get GCs when they are processed. Only the wait times of retrogressed countries get longer. In the legal brief, we asked the court to intervene because we are literally paying the price for USCIS' inefficiency. All the talks about only 140k EB GCs and 7% country cap is the law of the land. We can only get Congress to change it. But we never expected USCIS to waste thousands of GCs. That has caused a domino effect to the backlog. S, we got a lawsuit ready with everything and approached AIC as well as Cyrus. We were we could easily fund the lawsuit as there are hundreds of thousands stuck in backlog and some donation will cover the cost.

But we could not find a single lawyer who would represent us. AIC refused to take the case and Cyrus told us that if we file a lawsuit, that permanently closes the door on the next administration wanting to do recapture. USCIS will become more hostile towards us and this could drag on for years. USCIS has all the resources with them to drag this out.

So, I have tried and will continue to try whatever I can to solve this mess. It will be good if we can come together and unite on this front.

suninphx

06-10-2016, 10:17 AM

i agree with Q that Eb1C is least of our problems but in response to Q, I guess this is easy for people to complain and get resolved! imagine trying to get country quota removed or dependents removed or recapture wasted visas! hence the rant against Eb1C

Are you saying if I don't agree with any of the current policy or the way GC are being given out I should not complain? Doesn't sound logical to me.

anuprab

06-10-2016, 10:18 AM

suninphx

06-10-2016, 10:21 AM

I will say it again that EB1C India consumes 5K - perhaps 7K (including dependents). Total EB1India probably consumes 10K at best.

Here is some FY2014 and FY2015 statistics from great Spec

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,167 --- 3,561 --- 3,676 ----- 109 -- 9,128 --- 22,641
INDIA ---- 12,978 -- 23,528 --- 3,526 ----- 732 ----- 96 --- 40,860
MEXICO ---- 1,522 ----- 750 --- 3,738 ----- 965 ---- 129 ---- 7,104
PHIL. ------- 262 --- 1,972 --- 5,685 ----- 251 ------ 2 ---- 8,172
ROW ------ 19,679 -- 19,261 -- 26,074 --- 6,230 -- 1,337 --- 72,581

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,239 --- 4,202 --- 3,211 ------ 81 -- 8,156 --- 21,889
INDIA ---- 12,253 --- 7,235 --- 7,026 ----- 709 ---- 111 --- 27,334
MEXICO ---- 1,435 --- 1,365 --- 2,481 --- 1,022 ----- 77 ---- 6,380
PHIL. ------- 225 --- 2,220 --- 7,658 ----- 249 ----- 11 --- 10,363
ROW ------ 21,838 -- 29,457 -- 17,075 --- 8,210 -- 1,409 --- 77,989

TOTAL ---- 41,990 -- 44,479 -- 37,451 -- 10,271 -- 9,764 -- 143,955

So India EB1 usage is already more than 21% than what you claimed. And please don't say its just 2.2K more than what you stated. Because situation is so bad that every visa counts.

EB3Iwaiting

06-10-2016, 10:30 AM

EB3Iwaiting - i think lawsuit will screw us further. any idea why when the admin itself had recapture as one of the point in EO, USCIS backed off from doing this? We need to unite and do something about this. 10+ years of wait is simply not acceptable when RoW zooms by. can you pm me, i am interested in talking about this and doing something.

USCIS only backed off because WH ordered it to. USCIS is an executive branch controlled by the WH. I think WH knew fully well aboout VB reversal too and backed it and thats why USCIS fought it nail and tooth in the courts. I am pretty confident that recapture was in the cards and that's why they had the RFI to set it up to "collect comments from stakeholders" to protect them from lawsuits. I think everything for legal immigrants was stopped once DAPA got stuck in courts. EO was primarily for undocumented and we were simply allowed to hop on the gravy train so that it looks Obama is fixing "immigration as a whole" and not just doing it for undocumented. So, once DAPA got stuck, we got held hostage. It is the Democrats best interest to club legal immigration reforms with illegal immigration in the name of CIR.

Either way, this administration is done. We only got H4 EAD from them. We will have to restart once the new administration gets sworn in January.

anuprab

06-10-2016, 10:47 AM

USCIS only backed off because WH ordered it to. USCIS is an executive branch controlled by the WH. I think WH knew fully well aboout VB reversal too and backed it and thats why USCIS fought it nail and tooth in the courts. I am pretty confident that recapture was in the cards and that's why they had the RFI to set it up to "collect comments from stakeholders" to protect them from lawsuits. I think everything for legal immigrants was stopped once DAPA got stuck in courts. EO was primarily for undocumented and we were simply allowed to hop on the gravy train so that it looks Obama is fixing "immigration as a whole" and not just doing it for undocumented. So, once DAPA got stuck, we got held hostage. It is the Democrats best interest to club legal immigration reforms with illegal immigration in the name of CIR.

Either way, this administration is done. We only got H4 EAD from them. We will have to restart once the new administration gets sworn in January.

so what happens if DAPA/DACA passes?? where does that leave us or wait a min USCIS suddenly finds that their cooked up inventory number is running very low and they need to move the dates to not waste visas!!

i still dont understand WH role in reversal of the VB, it barely moved to Jul 2011 for India for god's sake...not a whole lot to generate any frenzy in the EBI community...

iatiam

06-10-2016, 10:58 AM

USCIS only backed off because WH ordered it to. USCIS is an executive branch controlled by the WH. I think WH knew fully well aboout VB reversal too and backed it and thats why USCIS fought it nail and tooth in the courts. I am pretty confident that recapture was in the cards and that's why they had the RFI to set it up to "collect comments from stakeholders" to protect them from lawsuits. I think everything for legal immigrants was stopped once DAPA got stuck in courts. EO was primarily for undocumented and we were simply allowed to hop on the gravy train so that it looks Obama is fixing "immigration as a whole" and not just doing it for undocumented. So, once DAPA got stuck, we got held hostage. It is the Democrats best interest to club legal immigration reforms with illegal immigration in the name of CIR.

Either way, this administration is done. We only got H4 EAD from them. We will have to restart once the new administration gets sworn in January.

I don't think the Obama administration is responsible for H4 EAD. It was in the comment period when Obama made his speech on EO. My friend and I were watching it and I told him "I have a feeling people will think H4 EAD was a result of EO" and sure enough, many people still think that.

Which means that WH has done absolutely nothing to help legal community. Never been a fan of Bush Jr. but at least he tried hard to bring CIR. If the administration had a fraction of the will it had to pass healthcare,we would all be in much better shape now. For Obama, it was all talk - at FB and LinkedIn HQ and a bunch of other places and then when it is time to get the goodies, its given to illegals.

This makes me even more optimistic. I don't think it can get any more worse than this. This administration has shown it.

Iatiam

iatiam

06-10-2016, 11:02 AM

EB3Iwaiting - i think lawsuit will screw us further.
This shows how much risk averse we are as a community. Yesterday I saw a lady making a speech at her graduation and proudly announcing to the world that she is undocumented. So if you are here legally and paid your taxes, who is there to be afraid of? Whether or not a lawsuit will do any thing is another question.

anuprab

06-10-2016, 11:10 AM

This shows how much risk averse we are as a community. Yesterday I saw a lady making a speech at her graduation and proudly announcing to the world that she is undocumented. So if you are here legally and paid your taxes, who is there to be afraid of? Whether or not a lawsuit will do any thing is another question.

you saw the benefit of VB lawsuit right? first everyone was on board and then when nothing happened on filing dates everyone wanted the lawsuit stopped. I dont see the dates moving in VB even after the lawsuit has been struck down..we will never figure out if the lawsuit harmed us in any manner. but one thing certain is it will turn USCIS hostile. better to work with them and admin than go the lawsuit way is my 2 cents

srimurthy

06-10-2016, 11:20 AM

I don't think the Obama administration is responsible for H4 EAD. It was in the comment period when Obama made his speech on EO. My friend and I were watching it and I told him "I have a feeling people will think H4 EAD was a result of EO" and sure enough, many people still think that.

Which means that WH has done absolutely nothing to help legal community. Never been a fan of Bush Jr. but at least he tried hard to bring CIR. If the administration had a fraction of the will it had to pass healthcare,we would all be in much better shape now. For Obama, it was all talk - at FB and LinkedIn HQ and a bunch of other places and then when it is time to get the goodies, its given to illegals.

This makes me even more optimistic. I don't think it can get any more worse than this. This administration has shown it.

Iatiam

Agree with you and even on health care they could have done it in the first term itself and seeing the backlash they got that's when they wanted to move ahead on it. And anyway I feel Dems are more inclined to give something for undocumented as that adds to their political vote base and if the documented get anything as a tag on that is ok. And I feel the only way legal can get something is as a add on to the undocumented benefits.

gcq

06-10-2016, 11:21 AM

you saw the benefit of VB lawsuit right? first everyone was on board and then when nothing happened on filing dates everyone wanted the lawsuit stopped. I dont see the dates moving in VB even after the lawsuit has been struck down..we will never figure out if the lawsuit harmed us in any manner. but one thing certain is it will turn USCIS hostile. better to work with them and admin than go the lawsuit way is my 2 cents

I will quote old indian scripts to reply to this

http://www.indiadivine.org/content/topic/1059239-gita-satsangh-chapter-10-verses-3-to-5/

Samam (persuade using reasoning), bhEdam (take the help of common friends), dAnam (provide gainful incentives) and dandam - the last one, force or coercive action, to be undertaken when all else fails. Himsa (violence) should be the last resort even if the purpose was to destroy adharma. Both Ramayana and Mahabharata illustrate the employment of the above mentioned strategy of SAmam, bhEdam, dAnam and andam

Lawsuit is dandam

EB3Iwaiting

06-10-2016, 11:47 AM

I don't think the Obama administration is responsible for H4 EAD. It was in the comment period when Obama made his speech on EO.

Actually, H4 EAD started with the WH petition in 2011. At that time, only 5k signatures were required to get a response and it got 6k. The administration responded that they are working on a proposed rule. USCIS submitted the proposed rule to OMB in 2012 but it was languishing there for 2 years since in 2013 we all go distracted by CIR. Then some of us met with OMB in April 2014 and it moved again. So, yes, H4 EAD started long before the EO but ultimately was clubbed with the EO and many think it is a result of the EO which is not. But it is also true that this administration did H4 EAD. That is the only thing that they did for legal immigrants.

Never been a fan of Bush Jr. but at least he tried hard to bring CIR. If the administration had a fraction of the will it had to pass healthcare,we would all be in much better shape now. For Obama, it was all talk - at FB and LinkedIn HQ and a bunch of other places and then when it is time to get the goodies, its given to illegals.

This makes me even more optimistic. I don't think it can get any more worse than this. This administration has shown it.

Iatiam

Agree with this. This administration clubbed us with the illegals and now Dems will continue to use this in the name of CIR. It was a classic political move by Obama. We will be held hostage unless Dems give relief to illegals (and by that I mean citizenship. Dems get nothing if illegals are not given right to vote.) And thats why we are stuck and passing laws legislatively seems impossible unless one party controls all 3.

qesehmk

06-10-2016, 12:09 PM

Q- we are talking about the wait time from PD. And if my memory serves me right its less than 5 years for you- The way you calculated 11 years..someone might be waiting for 15 years...so lets not go there. Use of "Uski kameez meri kameez se safed kaisi" is completely out of context. Rest of the post I don't even want to comment.
You only want to complain and not do anything - that's what it boils down to. You are happy to do an audit of my 11 years wait. You are happy to blame EB1C. You are happy to put fingers in others' analysis.

But there is no original thinking and analysis. I am sorry to say this but that's what I have seen you from a very long time.

qesehmk

06-10-2016, 12:15 PM

RESPECT my friend. That's a whole lot that I didn't expect from you.

I am mighty surprised that you couldn't find a lawyer. I have highest respect for efforts. I suggest you don't give up. You will find lawyers who will take this up. Also don't go finding the most accomplished lawyers.

When somebody is very accomplished - they are the ones who might get hurt by breaking status quo. You might want to look for a lawyer who is not yet quite established but has the fire to do something and passion to seek justice for backlogged candidates.

p.s. - I am not surprised on your FOIA being turned down. My own one got turned down 2 months back. It was an amazingly simple request but they turned it down. The request was a 5x5 matrix of 2015 visa issuances by country and category. That's it. But they refused to give it away.

A few of us had filed FOIA request to USCIS. They denied it saying the info is too much and it will cost them a lot of money to "take printouts" to give us the data. I have the letter saved somewhere, I can post it. Greg submitted an FOIA request too and they asked for $2000 for printouts. I think they did submit that money from the crowdfunding they did. I do not know what happened next.

Some of us also prepared an extensive set of documents showing how many GCs still remain wasted and were never recaptured. We prepared everything to file a lawsuit to get the courts to recapture wasted visas. We prepared a legal brief expressing why USCIS should do it and not wait for Congress. The retrogressed countries are the only ones affected by the visa wastage as ROWs still continue to get GCs when they are processed. Only the wait times of retrogressed countries get longer. In the legal brief, we asked the court to intervene because we are literally paying the price for USCIS' inefficiency. All the talks about only 140k EB GCs and 7% country cap is the law of the land. We can only get Congress to change it. But we never expected USCIS to waste thousands of GCs. That has caused a domino effect to the backlog. S, we got a lawsuit ready with everything and approached AIC as well as Cyrus. We were we could easily fund the lawsuit as there are hundreds of thousands stuck in backlog and some donation will cover the cost.

But we could not find a single lawyer who would represent us. AIC refused to take the case and Cyrus told us that if we file a lawsuit, that permanently closes the door on the next administration wanting to do recapture. USCIS will become more hostile towards us and this could drag on for years. USCIS has all the resources with them to drag this out.

So, I have tried and will continue to try whatever I can to solve this mess. It will be good if we can come together and unite on this front.

suninphx

06-10-2016, 12:31 PM

You only want to complain and not do anything - that's what it boils down to. You are happy to do an audit of my 11 years wait. You are happy to blame EB1C. You are happy to put fingers in others' analysis.

But there is no original thinking and analysis. I am sorry to say this but that's what I have seen you from a very long time.

Q- you have habit of not accepting your wrong statements when presented with the facts.(And this is not first time) The numbers I shared are available on this very blog for any one to use.(And I have no problem accepting that I don't have analytical ability like Spec to present the numbers way he does). So how does it matter if its original thinking or not. Fact remains that number you stated were not correct. You don't want to accept it is different matter.

So while you are assuming that no one doing anything (and that's why I did not want to respond to rest of your previous post) - you are proven wrong again by another user just today. So please don't assume that if nothing is getting shared on this web site means no one doing anything.

Can I ask what you have done? Or you are agreeing you lost the drive because you already have GC?

And since when complaining against abuse is being perceived so badly as if I have done some crime? With same logic should I draw conclusion that you are supporting abuse?

And oh - I am not looking for any certificate about original thinking and analysis - certainly not from you.

Raj0687

06-10-2016, 01:52 PM

Agree with this. This administration clubbed us with the illegals and now Dems will continue to use this in the name of CIR. It was a classic political move by Obama. We will be held hostage unless Dems give relief to illegals (and by that I mean citizenship. Dems get nothing if illegals are not given right to vote.) And thats why we are stuck and passing laws legislatively seems impossible unless one party controls all 3.[/QUOTE]

and when they have all 3, they don't like to do anything. It's not that they never had 3.

qesehmk

06-10-2016, 02:01 PM

I said "YOU" don't produce original work and only criticize others. There are ample others who do produce original work here. So don't hide behind others.

Q- you have habit of not accepting your wrong statements when presented with the facts.(And this is not first time) The numbers I shared are available on this very blog for any one to use.(And I have no problem accepting that I don't have analytical ability like Spec to present the numbers way he does). So how does it matter if its original thinking or not. Fact remains that number you stated were not correct. You don't want to accept it is different matter.

So while you are assuming that no one doing anything (and that's why I did not want to respond to rest of your previous post) - you are proven wrong again by another user just today. So please don't assume that if nothing is getting shared on this web site means no one doing anything.

Can I ask what you have done? Or you are agreeing you lost the drive because you already have GC?

And since when complaining against abuse is being perceived so badly as if I have done some crime? With same logic should I draw conclusion that you are supporting abuse?

And oh - I am not looking for any certificate about original thinking and analysis - certainly not from you.

EB3Iwaiting

06-10-2016, 02:41 PM