EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[EB3Iwaiting]

Can someone explain to me why the EB3ROW dates are provided the way they are?

[immi2910]

Could someone explain why the wait times are increasing for EB2I? Is it because only a small proportion of Indians are applying in EB3? If so then we may have a situation where EB3I moves ahead of EB2I in next couple of years. I consider this the optimistic scenario.

I have another hypothesis, which points to a bleaker outlook unless there are reforms.

Taking a macro view, there are 65K H1B visas allocated every year and there are 120K GC for EB1/2/3.

Now there are few people in EB1 (NIW i.e. EB1A/B) and few multinational managers (EB1C) on L1 and not on H1B. So there are additional visa categories that may need to be considered. However, there is also a spillover from EB4/5, which will reduce the effects of EB1 A/B and L1 visas.

After factoring all of this in let's reduce the number of GC available for H1B holders to 100K. Assuming that 1 H1B holder takes 2 GCs, you would expect inventory to increase by 30K every year.

As the bulk of the EB applications are from India, this would explain why the wait times are increasing for EB2I. It also indicates, that any recapture, I140 EAD etc. is only a stop gap measure. I think, to actually solve this problem, you would need legislation/executive order that will stop counting dependents for GC numbers or alternatively increase the GC numbers.

[flexan]

Gurus, Going by the predictions posted in the DoS website, it says EB2-I can expect a forward moment of ~ 8 months for each bulletin. So ideally speaking, 3 months from now, we can expect the final action dates to potentially reach 1 JUN 09. Can we can expect forward moment for dates filing I-485 later in this FY?

[zenmaster]

Gurus, Going by the predictions posted in the DoS website, it says EB2-I can expect a forward moment of ~ 8 months for each bulletin. So ideally speaking, 3 months from now, we can expect the final action dates to potentially reach 1 JUN 09. Can we can expect forward moment for dates filing I-485 later in this FY?

Ideally speaking, yes. But there isn't anything ideal going on with EB2I for quite some time now. :) So, pragmatic answer would be NO. We should however see 1JUL09 by end of FY16. How it plays out is just anyone's guess IMHO.

[tenyearsgone]

Ideally speaking, yes. But there isn't anything ideal going on with EB2I for quite some time now. :) So, pragmatic answer would be NO. We should however see 1JUL09 by end of FY16. How it plays out is just anyone's guess IMHO.

I actually read the 8 months as moving forward from 01-Jun-07 to 01-Feb-08 in total for the next few months. Pessimistic, I know....

[suninphx]

On a completely different note, it's very disappointing to see that USCIS have said that, for AOS applicants, the Final Action Dates will govern the ability to file an I-485 in December. That's an effective retrogression of 2 years from the 01JUL09 that is in effect for November. http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

It can't get complicated than this ! sigh

[gten20]

I can't get complicated than this ! sigh
We gotta stop saying this. :) Whenever we say it, USCIS is like .. "Challenge Accepted!"

USCIS sucks! This whole experience sucks!

[gcq]

AILA's latest check-in with CO revealed that he expects EB2I to move 10 months to June 1, 2007 in December. This is largely because of the correction from the roll back before. He also expects EB2I to move around 8 months per VB over the course of the next few months but it could slow down based on porting from EB3I to EB2I. As usual, nothing was said about EB3I. I guess it means business as usual, movement of a few weeks per bulletin.

But here is the silver lining I see. In the Dec VB, CO said this about EB3ROW:

"Employment Third:.

Worldwide: The rapid forward movement during FY-2015 was expected
to generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. If
such demand fails to materialize in the near future it will be
necessary to begin advancing this cut-off date."

Even though he did say India will advance 3 weeks, everything depends on the EB3ROW demand and when CO chooses to apply Spillover. His above statement seems to indicate that there is low EB3ROW demand. Thoughts?

Yes I agree. CO doesn't traditionally say much positive about EB3I even when there are reasons to say. His world revolves around EB3-ROW !

[EB3Iwaiting]

Posting again since it got pushed behind with some posts:

AILA's latest check-in with CO revealed that he expects EB2I to move 10 months to June 1, 2007 in December. This is largely because of the correction from the roll back before. He also expects EB2I to move around 8 months per VB over the course of the next few months but it could slow down based on porting from EB3I to EB2I. As usual, nothing was said about EB3I. I guess it means business as usual, movement of a few weeks per bulletin.

But here is the silver lining I see. In the Dec VB, CO said this about EB3ROW:

"Employment Third:.

Worldwide: The rapid forward movement during FY-2015 was expected
to generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. If
such demand fails to materialize in the near future it will be
necessary to begin advancing this cut-off date."

Even though he did say India will advance 3 weeks, everything depends on the EB3ROW demand and when CO chooses to apply Spillover. His above statement seems to indicate that there is low EB3ROW demand. Thoughts?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

This is even more revealing - from Murthy.com

Impact of Visa Bulletin Changes:

As has been widely discussed, the visa bulletin system changed radically as of October 2015. The DOS reports that it is still too early to know whether the addition of the DF chart will provide the desired insight into visa number demand. The agency notes that the initial data does not reflect that the DF dates utilized by the USCIS are revealing sufficient demand to be meaningful. However, it is too early accurately assess this due to lag times between the submission of I-485 applications and the data being reported by the USCIS to the DOS.

Until the USCIS completes its review of an I-485 application - a process that generally takes at least six months - the agency does not request a visa number from the DOS. So, while the new system has allowed for some additional adjustment-of-status (form I-485) filings over the past two months, the DOS will not receive the related visa number requests before May 2016, at the earliest.

[Spectator]

This is even more revealing - from Murthy.com

Impact of Visa Bulletin Changes:

As has been widely discussed, the visa bulletin system changed radically as of October 2015. The DOS reports that it is still too early to know whether the addition of the DF chart will provide the desired insight into visa number demand. The agency notes that the initial data does not reflect that the DF dates utilized by the USCIS are revealing sufficient demand to be meaningful. However, it is too early accurately assess this due to lag times between the submission of I-485 applications and the data being reported by the USCIS to the DOS.

Until the USCIS completes its review of an I-485 application - a process that generally takes at least six months - the agency does not request a visa number from the DOS. So, while the new system has allowed for some additional adjustment-of-status (form I-485) filings over the past two months, the DOS will not receive the related visa number requests before May 2016, at the earliest.I can't say I am particularly surprised by the statement, although I find it disappointing.

It says that USCIS are not prepared to alter their procedures or do one iota of extra work to make the new system work effectively.

USCIS must have the ability at some level to count the I-485 by Category and Country before the I-485 is actually adjudicated and a visa is requested - after all, that is what the USCIS Inventory represents. It doesn't seem beyond reason that at least rough numbers could be compiled as the applications are processed at the lockboxes.

It seems they just don't want to do that (or at least they are not prepared to pass that information to DOS), which negates most of the benefit that should accrue from the new system of Filing Dates. As written, there is still no advance information about demand. That's particularly important to assess demand from those Categories/Countries that might provide SO to India in EB2 and EB3.

It does beg the question as to how USCIS could make a decision not to use Filing Dates for EB AOS cases in December if they don't know how many cases have been received by Category/Country.




The quoted Murthy article (http://www.murthy.com/2015/11/17/december-2015-visa-bulletin-official-insights-and-predictions/) also adds something to the 8 months per month movement for EB2-I over the next 3 months statement from the December VB.


India: Employment-Based, Second Preference (EB2)

The FA cutoff date for EB2 India advances by seven months in the December 2015 Visa Bulletin. This advancement is primarily the result of the substantial rollback of this cutoff date at the end of the prior fiscal year.

Up to eight months of advancement in this category, per month, are projected over the next several months in the DOS's visa bulletin predictions.

Note, however, that the eight-month projection is the maximum amount of anticipated forward movement. At this time, the DOS believes that the actual progress per month may be closer to four-to-six months.

One reason the DOS believes that the advancement will need to be slowed to something less than eight months per month is that advancement generates demand for visa numbers.

Specifically, as EB2 advances, this generates demand from what are known as EB3-to-EB2 "upgrades."

The eight-month advancement in EB2 will only be possible in the absence of anticipated volumes of EB3 "upgrade" requests.

Here's another article (http://immigrationview.foxrothschild.com/general-immigration-news-and-updates/immigrant-visa-processing-changes-eb2-india-moves-forward-eb2-eb3-china-stays-the-same-visa-office-on-priority-dates-demand-and-predictions/) on the latest check in with CO that occurred on November 12,2015.

[Spectator]

The Q4 FY2015 USCIS Reports are available at http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data

[EB3Iwaiting]

It says that USCIS are not prepared to alter their procedures or do one iota of extra work to make the new system work effectively.

USCIS must have the ability at some level to count the I-485 by Category and Country before the I-485 is actually adjudicated and a visa is requested - after all, that is what the USCIS Inventory represents. It doesn't seem beyond reason that at least rough numbers could be compiled as the applications are processed at the lockboxes.

It seems they just don't want to do that (or at least they are not prepared to pass that information to DOS), which negates most of the benefit that should accrue from the new system of Filing Dates.

You hit the nail on the head with this one Spec. This pretty much proves that USCIS is undoing any reforms that were planned to for the VB, aka modernization and literally have no intention or will to help the legal skilled immigrants stuck in backlog. They are completely undoing the advantages of Filing Dates and my sense is they simply want to do away with it. The EB2I date for the last VB shows just that.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

The Q4 FY2015 USCIS Reports are available at http://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data

I keep thinking these Reports are accurate, but every time I do a smell test, it stinks!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I can't say I am particularly surprised by the statement, although I find it disappointing. It says that USCIS are not prepared to alter their procedures or do one iota of extra work to make the new system work effectively.

I totally agree with you.


USCIS must have the ability at some level to count the I-485 by Category and Country before the I-485 is actually adjudicated and a visa is requested - after all, that is what the USCIS Inventory represents. It doesn't seem beyond reason that at least rough numbers could be compiled as the applications are processed at the lockboxes.

USCIS spent a Billion dollars trying to automate a single Form, God knows how many Billions they will need to implement a Program that can leverage the PERM and I-140 Data to be able to predict accurately the demand trends


It seems they just don't want to do that (or at least they are not prepared to pass that information to DOS), which negates most of the benefit that should accrue from the new system of Filing Dates. As written, there is still no advance information about demand. That's particularly important to assess demand from those Categories/Countries that might provide SO to India in EB2 and EB3. It does beg the question as to how USCIS could make a decision not to use Filing Dates for EB AOS cases in December if they don't know how many cases have been received by Category/Country.

Very true.


The quoted Murthy article (http://www.murthy.com/2015/11/17/december-2015-visa-bulletin-official-insights-and-predictions/) also adds something to the 8 months per month movement for EB2-I over the next 3 months statement from the December VB.

This is like a drop of water in the ocean and will not help make much of a dent in the backlog.

[Spectator]

I keep thinking these Reports are accurate, but every time I do a smell test, it stinks!HarepathekaIntezar,

What in particular are you finding stinky?

[EB3Iwaiting]

When USCIS wasted a billion dollars in the automation program but are still far from it after 15 years, many believe that the USCIS pending I-485 inventory is also cooked up. And since they refuse to disclose the I-140 data, it is difficult to prove. Greg and Cyrus along with Bob submitted the FOIA request to obtain I-140 data which USCIS said in court they need another 10 days to produce after the original 21 days were over. Few others had submitted FOIA requests which were denied stating that the request was "too cumbersome". It is difficult to take anything that USCIS says or produces at face value.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

HarepathekaIntezar,

What in particular are you finding stinky?

I added up the Quarterly Approval totals and the total is just 117,416/-. Am I missing something?

[qesehmk]

I added up the Quarterly Approval totals and the total is just 117,416/-. Am I missing something?
You are missing the CP numbers.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

You are missing the CP numbers.

Do we get the CP numbers somewhere?

[Jagan01]

You are missing the CP numbers.

The percentage of CP cases went up. Any idea about the catalyst there ?

FiscalYear-----Adjustment Cases-----Total Cases-----Percentage of CP Cases
FY15-----------117416-----------------144796----------18.90 %
FY14-----------126940-----------------150000----------15.38 %

[Jagan01]

I can't say I am particularly surprised by the statement, although I find it disappointing.

It says that USCIS are not prepared to alter their procedures or do one iota of extra work to make the new system work effectively.

USCIS must have the ability at some level to count the I-485 by Category and Country before the I-485 is actually adjudicated and a visa is requested - after all, that is what the USCIS Inventory represents. It doesn't seem beyond reason that at least rough numbers could be compiled as the applications are processed at the lockboxes.

It seems they just don't want to do that (or at least they are not prepared to pass that information to DOS), which negates most of the benefit that should accrue from the new system of Filing Dates. As written, there is still no advance information about demand. That's particularly important to assess demand from those Categories/Countries that might provide SO to India in EB2 and EB3.

It does beg the question as to how USCIS could make a decision not to use Filing Dates for EB AOS cases in December if they don't know how many cases have been received by Category/Country.




The quoted Murthy article (http://www.murthy.com/2015/11/17/december-2015-visa-bulletin-official-insights-and-predictions/) also adds something to the 8 months per month movement for EB2-I over the next 3 months statement from the December VB.



Here's another article (http://immigrationview.foxrothschild.com/general-immigration-news-and-updates/immigrant-visa-processing-changes-eb2-india-moves-forward-eb2-eb3-china-stays-the-same-visa-office-on-priority-dates-demand-and-predictions/) on the latest check in with CO that occurred on November 12,2015.

I do agree on your viewpoint about USCIS being sluggish and downright anti-immigrant.

However, I also believe that we are not at loss because of the USCIS delays. Most of the SO we might get this year will be from FA and some might be from FD. Nobody knows those numbers until late in the FY.

I have always been of the opinion that CO does try to help EB2I as much as possible. He would continue moving the dates by 4-6 months and consume the annual quota and that sounds good. SO will remain unknown until Q4 of FY and hence the delay added by USCIS does not affect us as we have time until Q4 to assess the demand increase due to porting.

It is also important to note what is happening to EB2C. They are creating a situation where EB2C candidates might want to downgrade to EB3C. Though not very significant, that phenomenon turns out negative for EB3I and turns out in favor of EB2I as it is indirectly affecting the SO that EB2I and EB3I will end up getting.

[Spectator]

The percentage of CP cases went up. Any idea about the catalyst there ?

FiscalYear-----Adjustment Cases-----Total Cases-----Percentage of CP Cases
FY15-----------117416-----------------144796----------18.90 %
FY14-----------126940-----------------150000----------15.38 %

Using USCIS numbers, it would have been:

FiscalYear-----Adjustment Cases-----Total Cases-----Percentage of CP Cases
FY15-----------117416-----------------144796----------18.90 %
FY14-----------126939-----------------151241----------16.07 %

Actual DOS numbers were slightly different:

FiscalYear-----Adjustment Cases-----Total Cases-----Percentage of CP Cases
FY14-----------129,992-----------------151,357----------14.12 %

So there was a 3,053 difference in the number of AOS cases reported by USCIS and DOS. If you applied the same difference (just for fun), then the FY15 figures would become:

FiscalYear-----Adjustment Cases-----Total Cases-----Percentage of CP Cases
FY15-----------120,469-----------------144,796----------16.80 %

I'm not sure a 2-3% difference, particularly based on USCIS figures is significant enough to get worried about. If it's a real effect, my bet would be on higher EB3-P CP cases.

[qesehmk]

I agree with Spec - my bet is EB3P as well as EB3I.

[Spectator]

I did notice that USCIS have reported significant increases in I-360 figures, which eventually become EB4 approvals.

Receipts ---- FY2014 -- FY2015 -- % Increase
I-360 ------- 20,270 -- 26,489 ------- 31%

Approvals --- FY2014 -- FY2015 -- % Increase
I-360 ------- 16,850 -- 26,357 ------- 56%

USCIS reported very high approvals in Q1. The denial % in FY2015 was 12.1%, compared to the 25.4% seen in FY2014.

The I-360 backlog at the end of FY2015 was 12.8k.

That might give some credence to the warning CO issued some time ago about EB4 becoming retrogressed as early as FY2016.


The EB5 backlog just continues to grow. There were 17.4k I-526 cases pending at the end of FY2015, compared to the 9.7k completed and 8.7k approved. USCIS received 14.3k I-526 receipts in FY2015.

[Spectator]

However, I also believe that we are not at loss because of the USCIS delays. Most of the SO we might get this year will be from FA and some might be from FD. Nobody knows those numbers until late in the FY.

I have always been of the opinion that CO does try to help EB2I as much as possible. He would continue moving the dates by 4-6 months and consume the annual quota and that sounds good. SO will remain unknown until Q4 of FY and hence the delay added by USCIS does not affect us as we have time until Q4 to assess the demand increase due to porting.Jagan,

One of the biggest potential advantages of the new system was that upcoming demand might be more visible. If that applied to Categories/Countries that provided FA/FD, then the possibility existed to apply SO much earlier and even on a quarterly basis.

As you have noted, without that earlier visibility, the timing of SO distribution is likely to remain the same as it always has been.

[Jagan01]

Jagan,

One of the biggest potential advantages of the new system was that upcoming demand might be more visible. If that applied to Categories/Countries that provided FA/FD, then the possibility existed to apply SO much earlier and even on a quarterly basis.
Spec,

I do not see how that helps. The countries/categories that can provide FA/FD to EB2I are already current in the final action dates. So the dual system will not help there. The only place where dual system can help provide more insight into the inventory is for the retrogressed categories and those are not the ones that will be providing SO anyways.

I do agree with you on the part that the system is intended to provide more visibility into all the inventories and USCIS is not putting in its effort to do its part in a timely manner. However, that does not affect us as we anyways need to wait till Q4 to get the insight into the SO numbers.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Here's another article (http://immigrationview.foxrothschild.com/general-immigration-news-and-updates/immigrant-visa-processing-changes-eb2-india-moves-forward-eb2-eb3-china-stays-the-same-visa-office-on-priority-dates-demand-and-predictions/) on the latest check in with CO that occurred on November 12,2015.

This sounds interesting from that article -


Expect to See the “Visa Waiting List” in the January Visa Bulletin: Charlie and his team are currently compiling the “Visa Waiting List” which will provide information on the waiting list at the National Visa Center (NVC) as of November 1, 2015. An announcement should occur in next month’s Visa Bulletin, if not sooner.

There seem to be a lot of interesting things happening in the next few months..

[Spectator]

Spec,

I do not see how that helps. The countries/categories that can provide FA/FD to EB2I are already current in the final action dates. So the dual system will not help there. The only place where dual system can help provide more insight into the inventory is for the retrogressed categories and those are not the ones that will be providing SO anyways.

I do agree with you on the part that the system is intended to provide more visibility into all the inventories and USCIS is not putting in its effort to do its part in a timely manner. However, that does not affect us as we anyways need to wait till Q4 to get the insight into the SO numbers.I think you are missing the point.

It would help if USCIS made some changes so that they could capture the numbers as the applications are received and these were passed to DOS.

That would give DOS visibility of upcoming demand for applicants that were Current. Although it would not be quite as accurate if collected at that point, the denial rates for I-140 and I-485 are known and could be applied to arrive at a rough figure.

At the moment, the earliest an I-485 application is recorded with sufficient detail is after the I-140 has been approved (for the Inventory) and when a visa is requested from DOS. For Current applicants, that is the time of approval, which is of no use whatsoever to DOS to assess future demand. Capturing the statistics as the application is received could give up to 4-6 months of forward visibility.

I think its arguably more important to understand the numbers of cases that can be approved, rather than counting numbers that may not be able to be approved because the former was not understood properly.

Unless USCIS sort this out, there is no prospect EVER of anything else other than the mad scramble towards the end of the FY. I think even USCIS (if they could ever be bothered to think about it) would prefer a more predictable and even workload.

Of course, it's far too much to ask of USCIS and I'm not holding my breath.

[Spectator]

This sounds interesting from that article -



There seem to be a lot of interesting things happening in the next few months..It's just an update to this document (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingListItem.pdf) which currently shows the figures as at November 1, 2014.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

It's just an update to this document (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingListItem.pdf) which currently shows the figures as at November 1, 2014.

I thought it would be in the same format as the USCIS Pending Inventory. Without a yearwise breakup, this report serves limited purpose.

[mesan123]

I140 rule submitted by USCIS to OMB
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201510&RIN=1615-AC05

Q, Spec , Kanmani .... Your insights please.. Thank you in advance

[qesehmk]

Where are the specifics of the proposed rules? Sorry I am being dense in the morning!
I140 rule submitted by USCIS to OMB
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201510&RIN=1615-AC05

Q, Spec , Kanmani .... Your insights please.. Thank you in advance

[Spectator]

I140 rule submitted by USCIS to OMB
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201510&RIN=1615-AC05

Q, Spec , Kanmani .... Your insights please.. Thank you in advanceI don't think it adds anything that wasn't already known. It's a very generic summary.

The devil will be in the detail of the actual rule published for comment.

[mesan123]

Where are the specifics of the proposed rules? Sorry I am being dense in the morning!
As of now i couldnot find more specifics.. This was submitted by USCIS yesterday.. I have no more information yet.. Might be guessing full rule will be published by OMB once he finalizes it... But thought you guys might know the more on the sections mentioned in the current info

[mesan123]

I don't think it adds anything that wasn't already known. It's a very generic summary.

The devil will be in the detail of the actual rule published for comment.

Thank you Spec :) hopefully they do it in way to give EAD, AP .. I know i m asking for more :)

[gs1968]

To fellow forum members
The link that mesan provided above was unavaialble for a while this afternoon but is up again.I feel that the content now has changed compared to the link yesterday.I distinctly remember that there was language towards the end of the rule that suggested that the USCIS might merge this rule with another rule which when searched seemed to include phrases like work authrization etc. The current rule (RIN: 1615-AC05 ) although largely similar to yesterday now now says that
1615-AB97 (another AC21 regulation if you search the database) will be the regulation merged with it. Maybe I am mistaken and there is probably no change.

Also certain sections mentioned in the current rule especially section 274A(h)(3)(B) of the INA and 8 U.S.C. 1324a(h)(3)(B) relate to unlawful employment of aliens and I am not sure how they fit in the current context

Time will tell

[EB3Iwaiting]

The good thing is that this rule has been deemed "Economically Significant". So, OMB has to complete their review within 30 days. Note that the NPRM date is now changed to 12/00/2015. Considering 30 days for review, USCIS expects to publish this proposed rule in the FR for comments late December. As Spec mentioned, the devil is in the details when we get to read the full text of the rule. We have to wait till then.

[delguy]

The good thing is that this rule has been deemed "Economically Significant". So, OMB has to complete their review within 30 days. Note that the NPRM date is now changed to 12/00/2015. Considering 30 days for review, USCIS expects to publish this proposed rule in the FR for comments late December. As Spec mentioned, the devil is in the details when we get to read the full text of the rule. We have to wait till then.
e
Where does it says that "Economically Significant" rules has to be reviewed in 30 days? I couldn't find that anywhere.

[EB3Iwaiting]

e
Where does it says that "Economically Significant" rules has to be reviewed in 30 days? I couldn't find that anywhere.

Go to the OMB dashboard and select DHS. You will see RIN1615-AC05 in "Pending Review" status. It also says "Yes" to Economically Significant.

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/jsp/EO/eoDashboard.jsp

[Positive]

I have been working with a journalism student working on a story on backlogged EB immigrants. I mentioned my estimated wait time for the green card to him and he asked about the source of the estimate. I pointed him to this forum and the experts here. He was wondering if any of the experts here would be willing to talk to him. will be happy to provide his contact details and introductions.

[delguy]

Go to the OMB dashboard and select DHS. You will see RIN1615-AC05 in "Pending Review" status. It also says "Yes" to Economically Significant.

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/jsp/EO/eoDashboard.jsp

That I saw, but where does it say "30 days" period for "Economically Significant" rules?

[AC_1980]

sorry if this post does not belong here, please move as appropriate.

Has anyone applied for EAD renewal recently and seeing any delays? My wife (dependent) and I (primary) sent the paperwork in that was received on Sep 11, 2015. It has been 86 days, online status still says "Case Received". Tried to make an infopass appointment (We are in NJ) for EAD inquiry and it says that at this time there is no information available for appointments. Is infopass still the process to follow or there is some other process now? thanks.

[suninphx]

sorry if this post does not belong here, please move as appropriate.

Has anyone applied for EAD renewal recently and seeing any delays? My wife (dependent) and I (primary) sent the paperwork in that was received on Sep 11, 2015. It has been 86 days, online status still says "Case Received". Tried to make an infopass appointment (We are in NJ) for EAD inquiry and it says that at this time there is no information available for appointments. Is infopass still the process to follow or there is some other process now? thanks.

Contact local Senator / Congressman's office.

[AC_1980]

thanks for the tip, I will do that. One question, is there a specific something I have to do/say when there (try to meet the senator himself/herself, mention about inquiry form #XXYY, process to contact USCIS etc), or should just walk in with a sad face, talk to them, explain the situation, ask if there's anything they can do to help, and they will know the rest?

[suninphx]

thanks for the tip, I will do that. One question, is there a specific something I have to do/say when there (try to meet the senator himself/herself, mention about inquiry form #XXYY, process to contact USCIS etc), or should just walk in with a sad face, talk to them, explain the situation, ask if there's anything they can do to help, and they will know the rest?

Typically you go to their website and download and fill out the form (explaining what kind of help you need /which dept, provide receipt numbers etc) and fax it to them. The office staff is well aware of issues like EAD delays and know the next steps to help you out. IMO -No need to present yourself with a sad face. Just let them know the facts and urgency of the matter (e.g. financial loss if you did not get EAD on time).

[Spectator]

USCIS finally updated the figures (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Citizenship/I360_sij_performancedata_fy2015_qtr4.pdf) (having failed to do so when all others were updated).

Period Petitions by Case Status
Special Immigrant Juvenile
-------Received - Approved - Denied - Pending

Fiscal Year - Total
2010 ---- 1,646 -----1,590 ----- 97 ------ 35
2011 ---- 2,226 -----1,869 ----- 84 ------ 47
2012 ---- 2,968 -----2,726 ---- 119 ----- 220
2013 ---- 3,994 -----3,431 ---- 190 ----- 702
2014 ---- 5,776 -----4,606 ---- 247 --- 1,826
2015 --- 11,500 -----8,739 ---- 412 --- 4,357


I've checked once again that SIJ are actually included in EB4.

From the INA (203(b)(4)) which describes EB4:


(4) Certain special immigrants. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , 2/ and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .

SIJ are shown as special immigrants under INA 101(a)(27)(J) and are not excluded above.

[harapatha]

I have been working with a journalism student working on a story on backlogged EB immigrants. I mentioned my estimated wait time for the green card to him and he asked about the source of the estimate. I pointed him to this forum and the experts here. He was wondering if any of the experts here would be willing to talk to him. will be happy to provide his contact details and introductions.

See if this helps - http://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2015/11/07/increase-labor-mobility-and-end-per-country-limits-for-high-skilled-immigrants/

Too, refer to this document that was reference in the article - http://nfap.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/NFAP-Policy-Brief.Reforms-to-Make-on-Legal-Immigration.Sept-2015.pdf

[nbk1976]

sorry if this post does not belong here, please move as appropriate.

Has anyone applied for EAD renewal recently and seeing any delays? My wife (dependent) and I (primary) sent the paperwork in that was received on Sep 11, 2015. It has been 86 days, online status still says "Case Received". Tried to make an infopass appointment (We are in NJ) for EAD inquiry and it says that at this time there is no information available for appointments. Is infopass still the process to follow or there is some other process now? thanks.

I applied for EAD renewal early this year and it took me longer than 2013. I think it took nearly 100 days. If it goes over 90 days, it can be escalated. Call USCIS on the 91st day.

[srimurthy]

I applied for EAD renewal early this year and it took me longer than 2013. I think it took nearly 100 days. If it goes over 90 days, it can be escalated. Call USCIS on the 91st day.

Very unpredictable. I applied for H4EAD and took more than 100 days, was about to raise a SR when I got the card. The letter informing / confirming that EAD card will be sent came two weeks later. Where as I saw some who applied later than me got cards earlier. Especially if things are going Vermont, expect 90 days response time I guess.

[tatikonda]

VB updated..

EB2 -India.. February 2008.
http://www.travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-january-2016.html

[EB3Iwaiting]

Notice EB3-ROW Filing Date. It is 1st Jan 2016. Why not make it "C"? That will probably anger the rogue elements at USCIS. The filing dates for EB3ROW has moved 4 months. Does this mean there is low EB3ROW demand? They are the only chance for EB3I movement.

[EB3Iwaiting]

DOS data released. However, section V for EB is not there.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2015.html

[qesehmk]

DOS data released. However, section V for EB is not there.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2015.html

That's quite sadist to specifically omit EB information.

[nbk1976]

Notice EB3-ROW Filing Date. It is 1st Jan 2016. Why not make it "C"? That will probably anger the rogue elements at USCIS. The filing dates for EB3ROW has moved 4 months. Does this mean there is low EB3ROW demand? They are the only chance for EB3I movement.

What do you mean "rogue elements"? Are there bureaucrats within USCIS who are working counter to the rest?

[gcq]

Notice EB3-ROW Filing Date. It is 1st Jan 2016. Why not make it "C"? That will probably anger the rogue elements at USCIS. The filing dates for EB3ROW has moved 4 months. Does this mean there is low EB3ROW demand? They are the only chance for EB3I movement.

CO is the one moves the dates. The reason he may not be making it current is he wants to wait a few months at least to ensure all of EB3-ROW is taken care of. Towards the last quarter he can make it current and let fall across come to EB3-I. As EB3-I applications are mostly pre-adjudicated, it is just a matter of getting medicals done( which can take a max of 1 month).

[bluelabel]

As per USCIS visa bulletin - http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You may use the Dates for Filing Visa Applications chart for January 2016.

For Employment-Based Filings:
You must use the Application Final Action Dates chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for January 2016 .

[Immigo]

DOS data released. However, section V for EB is not there.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2015.html

Spec/Gurus - since family shows 208k, does it imply an 18k spillover to EB ?

Edit: 208k looks like CP only

[Spectator]

Spec/Gurus - since family shows 208k, does it imply an 18k spillover to EB ?

Edit: 208k looks like CP onlyImmigo,

As you have already surmised, the 208k represents CP cases only.

To put that into context, in FY2014, FB had 198k CP cases out of a total 221k FB approvals.

Unfortunately, it does appear that the preliminary EB allocation figure (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf) of just 300 extra in FY2016 will be fairly close to the mark.

[AC_1980]

Just wanted to follow up on my original query here. I raised a service request (http://www.uscis.gov/forms/tip-sheet-employment-authorization-applications-pending-more-75-days) on the 88th day, and the online status showed case approved on 91st day. Thanks for everyone's advice, I appreciate it.

[CleanSock]

So, H1B fee has been hiked to $4000 if the employers has more than 50% of its employees on H1B.

http://www.murthy.com/2015/12/18/omnibus-bill-passed-by-congress-includes-several-immigration-provisions/

[abcx13]

Is there still a chance of the EAD rule for pending I485s being passed in 2016? Not sure what happened to that. All talk about that seemed to die out after 'visagate'.

[Raj0687]

Does it ($4000) apply to H1B extensions too or just the first time applicants subjected to cap?
What would be the bill effective date? shouldn't it go to fed register and then the effective date?

[na_dev]

Here is the final Bill Text: https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/BILLS-114hr2029enr/pdf/BILLS-114hr2029enr.pdf

‘‘SEC. 411. 9-11 RESPONSE AND BIOMETRIC ENTRY-EXIT FEE.

‘‘(a) TEMPORARY L-1 VISA FEE INCREASE.—Notwithstanding section
281 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1351)
or any other provision of law, during the period beginning on
the date of the enactment of this section and ending on September
30, 2025, the combined filing fee and fraud prevention and detection
fee required to be submitted with an application for admission
as a nonimmigrant under section 101(a)(15)(L) of the Immigration
and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1101(a)(15)(L)), including an application
for an extension of such status shall be increased by $4,500
for applicants that employ 50 or more employees in the United
States if more than 50 percent of the applicant’s employees are
nonimmigrants admitted pursuant to subparagraph (H)(i)(b) or (L)
of section 101(a)(15) of such Act.
‘‘(b) TEMPORARY H-1B VISA FEE INCREASE.—Notwithstanding
section 281 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1351)
or any other provision of law, during the period beginning on
the date of the enactment of this section and ending on September
30, 2025, the combined filing fee and fraud prevention and detection
fee required to be submitted with an application for admission
as a nonimmigrant under section 101(a)(15)(H)(i)(b) of the Immigration
and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1101(a)(15)(H)(i)(b)), including
an application for an extension of such status, shall be increased
by $4,000 for applicants that employ 50 or more employees in
the United States if more than 50 percent of the applicant’s
employees are such nonimmigrants or nonimmigrants described
in section 101(a)(15)(L) of such Act.
‘‘(c) 9-11 RESPONSE AND BIOMETRIC EXIT ACCOUNT.—
‘‘(1) ESTABLISHMENT.—There is established in the general
fund of the Treasury a separate account, which shall be known
as the ‘9–11 Response and Biometric Exit Account’.
‘‘(2) DEPOSITS.—
‘‘(A) IN GENERAL.—Subject to subparagraph (B), of the
amounts collected pursuant to the fee increases authorized
under subsections (a) and (b)—
‘‘(i) 50 percent shall be deposited in the general
fund of the Treasury; and
‘‘(ii) 50 percent shall be deposited as offsetting
receipts into the 9–11 Response and Biometric Exit
Account, and shall remain available until expended.
‘‘(B) TERMINATION OF DEPOSITS IN ACCOUNT.—After a
total of $1,000,000,000 is deposited into the 9–11 Response
and Biometric Exit Account under subparagraph (A)(ii),
all amounts collected pursuant to the fee increases authorized
under subsections (a) and (b) shall be deposited in
the general fund of the Treasury.
‘‘(3) USE OF FUNDS.—For fiscal year 2017, and each fiscal
year thereafter, amounts in the 9–11 Response and Biometric
Exit Account shall be available to the Secretary of Homeland
H. R. 2029—766
Security without further appropriation for implementing the
biometric entry and exit data system described in section 7208
of the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of
2004 (8 U.S.C. 1365b).’’.
(h) ADMINISTRATIVE COSTS.—Section 1347 of the Full-Year Continuing
Appropriations Act, 2011 (49 U.S.C. 40101 note) is
amended—
(1) by inserting ‘‘and (2)’’ after ‘‘(d)(1)’’; and
(2) by adding at the end the following: ‘‘Costs for payments
for compensation for claims in Group A, as described in section
405(a)(3)(C)(ii) of such Act, shall be paid from amounts made
available under section 406 of such Act. Costs for payments
for compensation for claims in Group B, as described in section
405(a)(3)(C)(iii) of such Act, shall be paid from amounts in
the Victims Compensation Fund established under section 410
of such Act.’’.

[Raj0687]

Thanks na_dev (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/member.php/944-na_dev).

[EB3Iwaiting]

OMB has approved proposed rule RIN 1615-AC05. It will soon be published in the FR and opened for comments. That's when we will get to see the actual text of the rule. It will be interesting:

http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eoDetails?rrid=125729

[na_dev]

This is good news. Now it crossed the first huddle. It's in Rule making stage . Let's wait to see the texts of the rule.

[Jonty Rhodes]

This is good news. Now it crossed the first huddle. It's in Rule making stage . Let's wait to see the texts of the rule.

It looks like that we will still have to show "compelling reasons" to get EAD for limited period and that granting of EAD even on those compelling reasons would be solely at the discretion of DHS. Now we will have to wait to see what does "compelling reasons" mean and what is included in this.

Also, for EAD extensions, the gap between PD and VB cut-off date should be less than 1 year.

So lets assume that if I somehow qualify to get EAD showing "compelling reasons" and end up getting and EAD for 1 or 2 years, I wouldn't be able to get the extension at the end of those 1 or 2 years unless my PD and VB cut-off date is less than 1 year apart, which in short means that I have to still maintain my H1B status regardless of being on EAD or not.

I don't know how many people would benefit ultimately at the end of this rule making. It seems like they are doing something just for the sake of doing it and in the end only couple thousands may qualify at the most.

[jimmys]

H-1B and L-1 application fee increase will fuel EB1-C surge. Top Indian consulting companies will seek a quick way to bring their H-1/L-1 employees down to < 50%. The easiest(only) way to quickly achieve is to file as many as EB1-C and bring the L-1/H-1 numbers down. EB1C in the coming years may have a cut off for Indian applicants. Every action by Dos and/or USCIS on targeting Indian consulting companies will only end up as a nightmare for EB2-I/EB3-I applicants in the form of increased EB1-C usage. This won't be different either.

[rocketfast]

Recently my team made an offer to a fresh grad from Taiwan. The guy insisted that we start the GC process while he was on OPT (so that he no longer depends on H1B lottery). The company lawyers balked at the idea. But it looked like the guy felt it was doable and he rejected our offer.

So the larger question is whether the above is possible? If so, why are more companies like FB, GOOG etc not doing it? If it is indeed doable, woudn't it shutdown one possibility of spillover for GCs (assuming H1B limit is currently a gating factor for ROW applicants)

[abcx13]

It looks like that we will still have to show "compelling reasons" to get EAD for limited period and that granting of EAD even on those compelling reasons would be solely at the discretion of DHS. Now we will have to wait to see what does "compelling reasons" mean and what is included in this.

Also, for EAD extensions, the gap between PD and VB cut-off date should be less than 1 year.

So lets assume that if I somehow qualify to get EAD showing "compelling reasons" and end up getting and EAD for 1 or 2 years, I wouldn't be able to get the extension at the end of those 1 or 2 years unless my PD and VB cut-off date is less than 1 year apart, which in short means that I have to still maintain my H1B status regardless of being on EAD or not.

I don't know how many people would benefit ultimately at the end of this rule making. It seems like they are doing something just for the sake of doing it and in the end only couple thousands may qualify at the most.

Where does it say this? Thx

[Raj0687]

Check this link http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAViewICR?ref_nbr=201511-1615-011

"EAD for a limited period if there are compelling circumstances that, in the discretionary determination of DHS, justify the consideration of such employment authorization"

Not surprised if the limited period is for few seconds.

[abcx13]

Check this link http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAViewICR?ref_nbr=201511-1615-011

"EAD for a limited period if there are compelling circumstances that, in the discretionary determination of DHS, justify the consideration of such employment authorization"

Not surprised if the limited period is for few seconds.

Maybe the word 'limited' is just meant to indicate that it's till we get a GC? Of course that's the most optimistic reading...I guess we'll see. The same or similar job stuff is bullshit too...

[YTeleven]

Merry Christmas to all.

I see this as a positive news even though there are some conditions attached to it.

More details are available in this document:
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/DownloadDocument?objectID=60384600

"USCIS is projecting that approximately 155,067 new respondents will submit this type of request as a result of this rulemaking."

That's a huge number which includes the spouse and children for a primary I-140 approved applicant and that turns out to be an approximation of 75k to 100k primary I-140 approved applicants who will get benefited from this rule making.

As of today we don't know what are those compelling reasons but USCIS already estimated that there are around 155k people in those compelling circumstances currently who will get eligibility to file for I-140 EAD. We need to wait for another 4 to 6 months to see this rule gets approved and active.
All in all I see this as a great start for a new year 2016 with lots of hopes at least for those 155K beneficiaries. The remaining people can only hope their turn comes in subsequent years based on their PD and VB movement.

[nikjoshi]

Gurus - need your opinion here. My PD is July 29, 2011. Is there any chance I would be able to apply for I-485 in 2016?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Gurus - need your opinion here. My PD is July 29, 2011. Is there any chance I would be able to apply for I-485 in 2016?

Yes, Only if EAD for I-140 Regulation gets approved!

[abcx13]

A little more here along with links to the proposed forms:

http://www.immigration-law.com/
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAICList?ref_nbr=201511-1615-006

[Umesh1209]

Thanks for posting. Have few questions related to J-Form but not sure if we have clarity at this point. Gurus please share your views
1. Will it impact those who used 485 Ead and changed the job?

2. Should USCIS approve the J form before we take up the new job? I seriously hope that is not the case, if so EAD will then be like H1B. Most employers will not wait that long even if they do a premium processing

[nagendra75]

Hi, I've been a silent observer on this thread for over a year now and learnt quite a bit on the GC process. Thank you for all the contributors and educators.
I need some of your expert thoughts on my situation. I am in EB2 and my PD is Oct 2008. I was one of those that got eligibility to file for 485 / 765 / 131 in October 2015 due to the Date for Filing process. I missed the earlier boats to file due to various reasons.My application receipt date for all 3 applications is October 5th 2015. Unfortunately, I got let-go-off in mid November by the sponsoring company. I am back on H1 with another company. The immigration department for the old company told me that they do not withdraw I-140s unless there is a specific request from the manager and they are required to withdraw the H1Bs as required by law upon termination. My questions are:

Can I still continue my 485 and file for AC-21 after 180 days since the I-140 will not be withdrawn?
Do I have to re-start my GC process all over again?

My I-140 was approved in Dec 2014. I have not approached any immigration attorneys yet as I have been through a lot trying to get back on track. I am one of those fools who made a mistake of buying a home in anticipation of getting a GC soon. :-( I still have a very heavy heart while writing this and feel very bad for my wrong decision.

[4WatItsWorth]

All the forum discussions regarding forecasts seem to have gotten cold for some reason, which is little surprising.I think that partly because it has limited accuracy, partly because the forum offers a paid forecasting tool, and those involved with it have stopped doing "free" forecasts, and partly some of those who did it actively, have gotten their GCs and have moved on.

[imdeng]

Mostly because there is nothing to do. Basic data is simple and clear and known to everybody. Beyond that there is nothing to base any forecasts on except just raw guessing. Plus the current situation is so depressing with so many headwinds that its not a pleasant thing to basically keep saying that we might not cross the previous high water mark :-(

If there were chances of EB2I getting 16k-20k visas like in many years past then you would have seen a lot more activity.


I think that partly because it has limited accuracy, partly because the forum offers a paid forecasting tool, and those involved with it have stopped doing "free" forecasts, and partly some of those who did it actively, have gotten their GCs and have moved on.

[knighthood83]

Hey guys happy Sunday!!!. I am a novice at crunching the numbers and I was doing some of my own number crunching. I compared the EB2 numbers for ROW starting Oct 2014 to July 2015 and they have hardly changed.

EB2 ROW is current so how come EB2 ROW cases haven't cleared quicker? They seem to be hanging around the same number. One explanation is they are clearing quickly but are also getting filled to the same number but I dont think growth rate for EB2 ROW is that high. Am I missing something?

[nbk1976]

EB2 ROW isn't current: where do you see that? Thanks.

[sean231]

Hi, I've been a silent observer on this thread for over a year now and learnt quite a bit on the GC process. Thank you for all the contributors and educators.
I need some of your expert thoughts on my situation. I am in EB2 and my PD is Oct 2008. I was one of those that got eligibility to file for 485 / 765 / 131 in October 2015 due to the Date for Filing process. I missed the earlier boats to file due to various reasons.My application receipt date for all 3 applications is October 5th 2015. Unfortunately, I got let-go-off in mid November by the sponsoring company. I am back on H1 with another company. The immigration department for the old company told me that they do not withdraw I-140s unless there is a specific request from the manager and they are required to withdraw the H1Bs as required by law upon termination. My questions are:

Can I still continue my 485 and file for AC-21 after 180 days since the I-140 will not be withdrawn?
Do I have to re-start my GC process all over again?

My I-140 was approved in Dec 2014. I have not approached any immigration attorneys yet as I have been through a lot trying to get back on track. I am one of those fools who made a mistake of buying a home in anticipation of getting a GC soon. :-( I still have a very heavy heart while writing this and feel very bad for my wrong decision.

Unfortunately, you would need to start the GC process all over again with the new company and continue to be on H1 until you've crossed the I-140 stage with the new company. Good news is that you can retain your PD (esp considering that your previous company is not going to withdraw it).

[anuprab]

Mostly because there is nothing to do. Basic data is simple and clear and known to everybody. Beyond that there is nothing to base any forecasts on except just raw guessing. Plus the current situation is so depressing with so many headwinds that its not a pleasant thing to basically keep saying that we might not cross the previous high water mark :-(

If there were chances of EB2I getting 16k-20k visas like in many years past then you would have seen a lot more activity.

What about EB3-India? I thought this category was going to get the benefit of spillovers from RoW. too early to predict and hence the silence?

[knighthood83]

I wont ask the gurus on this forum about when my PD will become current. However for ppl having PD's in the second half of 2010 (June to Dec) are these folks looking at another 5 years to even file for AOS? So sometime around 2020 time frame?

It seems to me that with the economy improving the spills into EB2 would only reduce. Or do you think the spike in EB1 and EB2 WW is temporary phenomena?

[qesehmk]

It seems to me that with the economy improving the spills into EB2 would only reduce. Or do you think the spike in EB1 and EB2 WW is temporary phenomena?
Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.

[4WatItsWorth]

Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.
I am hearing that EB2-I final action date may not even cross middle of Calendar Year 2009. Is that your feeling too that it is this bad?

[qesehmk]

I am hearing that EB2-I final action date may not even cross middle of Calendar Year 2009. Is that your feeling too that it is this bad?
Yes. I think so based on current indications.

[anuprab]

Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.

Q, isn't EB3 India supposed to gallop as all things are in its favor? I know I am being selfish and looking for 2005-06 filings, long term trend is ofcourse miserable for all Eb2-3 India applicants

[qesehmk]

Q, isn't EB3 India supposed to gallop as all things are in its favor? I know I am being selfish and looking for 2005-06 filings, long term trend is ofcourse miserable for all Eb2-3 India applicants
It will be a good year for EB3-I but the leap in months / years will come on the back of already thinned out backlog for EB3. In other words - the spillover will not be as huge as we would like (e.g. 20K that EB2I used to enjoy 5 years back!). However even a slight spillover can cause good movement in EB3I because 2004-2007 EB3I has been thinned out due to portings.

Hope this helps!

[anuprab]

It will be a good year for EB3-I but the leap in months / years will come on the back of already thinned out backlog for EB3. In other words - the spillover will not be as huge as we would like (e.g. 20K that EB2I used to enjoy 5 years back!). However even a slight spillover can cause good movement in EB3I because 2004-2007 EB3I has been thinned out due to portings.

Hope this helps!

thanks so if I understand you correctly, thinned out EB3I and spillover should help EB3I this year. when do you think will the movement in EB3I start ?

[nagendra75]

Thank you sean231! I'll be talking to an attorney as well.

[tenyearsgone]

Hi, I've been a silent observer on this thread for over a year now and learnt quite a bit on the GC process. Thank you for all the contributors and educators.
I need some of your expert thoughts on my situation. I am in EB2 and my PD is Oct 2008. I was one of those that got eligibility to file for 485 / 765 / 131 in October 2015 due to the Date for Filing process. I missed the earlier boats to file due to various reasons.My application receipt date for all 3 applications is October 5th 2015. Unfortunately, I got let-go-off in mid November by the sponsoring company. I am back on H1 with another company. The immigration department for the old company told me that they do not withdraw I-140s unless there is a specific request from the manager and they are required to withdraw the H1Bs as required by law upon termination. My questions are:

Can I still continue my 485 and file for AC-21 after 180 days since the I-140 will not be withdrawn?
Do I have to re-start my GC process all over again?

My I-140 was approved in Dec 2014. I have not approached any immigration attorneys yet as I have been through a lot trying to get back on track. I am one of those fools who made a mistake of buying a home in anticipation of getting a GC soon. :-( I still have a very heavy heart while writing this and feel very bad for my wrong decision.

If your I-140 is not withdrawn within 180 days, then you can continue to your existing I-485 and file for AC21 (as long as you satisfy the AC21 requirements). There is no need to restart your GC process all over again.
Even if I-140 is withdrawn within 180 days, it may be possible to continue your I-485 if USCIS does not send a NOIR. This would be risky though and future issues may not be ruled out.

[jimmys]

My PD is July 2009 and yet to file I-485. Does anyone of you think I have a chance of filing and getting approved in CY 2016?

[knighthood83]

Unfortunately that has already happened. Lack of spillovers are a direct result of improved economy.
EB1 is a permanent phenomenon IMHO - because that is a proven way to quickly obtain GC for management in all kinds of companies. Whereas EB2ROW is mixed bag of good economy AND disillusioned EB3ROW portings. But as you can see EB3ROW itself is now becoming currrent so expect reduced EB2ROW in times ahead. Will those reductions be offset by increases due to good economy? Perhaps not entirely.

However EB2/3-India are in a pickle for a very long time short of any immigration fix. And the chances of any fix are the same as they always have been - fundamentally things remain unchanged.

With PERM mordernization they plan to bring in premium processing that too will slow things substantially since demand might start showing up early.

[qesehmk]

With PERM mordernization they plan to bring in premium processing that too will slow things substantially since demand might start showing up early.Yeah but when the wait time is 9 years long - this factor is a drop in the bucket.

p.s. - Sorry I just realized that the non-India applications would only increase thereby putting stress on already sparsely available spillover visas. Yes you are correct.

[knighthood83]

Yeah but when the wait time is 9 years long - this factor is a drop in the bucket.

You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

Thanks

[mechanical13]

You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

Thanks

Probably to just get EAD/AP at this messed up rate.

The US government condemns the arab states for human rights violations, but in many ways, this country is becoming a lot like the Arab state - "if you are from India, you can work however long you want here and contribute to the economy, but can never become a citizen". I think if someone were to file under EB2I now, the wait times are likely 20 years to get GC.

[qesehmk]

You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

Thanks
I was speaking vaguely. If you look at the Visa Bulletin, EB2I folks from 2008 are still waiting. This is 2016. That's 8 years already and we don't even know if all 2008 folks will be cleared this year.

[nagendra75]

Thank you so much Tenyearsgone. The attorney I consulted too opined the same. I hope it is not withdrawn. Thank you again! Best..

[Spectator]

You mean for EB2 India the wait times are PD+9?

Also is that for getting a GC or for having the chance to file for AOS?

ThanksIt may not quite be that yet, but it's not far away and may well accelerate beyond that for later PDs.

From the PERM data, CY2009 PD cases represent the low point in numbers and have increased substantially since then.

Indian PERM Certification by calculated PD:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k

However you spin those numbers to derive EB2-I I-485 applications, it's a substantial increase over time and the numbers of I-485 beyond 01MAY10 are far more than we have seen to date. The period that became current for 2010 (Jan-Apr) only appears to cover 25% of the total number for 2010. Numbers rise substantially from Aug 2010.

[EB3Iwaiting]

It may not quite be that yet, but it's not far away and may well accelerate beyond that for later PDs.

From the PERM data, CY2009 PD cases represent the low point in numbers and have increased substantially since then.

Indian PERM Certification by calculated PD:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k

However you spin those numbers to derive EB2-I I-485 applications, it's a substantial increase over time and the numbers of I-485 beyond 01MAY10 are far more than we have seen to date. The period that became current for 2010 (Jan-Apr) only appears to cover 25% of the total number for 2010. Numbers rise substantially from Aug 2010.

What is the % breakdown of EB2ROW vs. EB3ROW? Over years, EB3ROW has been substantially higher than EB2ROW. But has this changed over the last few years? I also noticed an increase in PERM filings for South Korea - 5715 from 1st Jan to 29th Dec 2015. There is no doubt that there has been a substantial increase in PERM filings for India over the years since 2010. With the H1B lottery, the Indian body shops are gaming the system and taking away most of the H1Bs. Does this also mean there has been a decrease in ROW filings overall? Trying to find some positives here. ROW PERM filings were around 28k last year while India was close to 44k.

Finally, EB3ROW has 11k pending inventory and looking at PERM, I did not see any high demand for them over the last year. Considering they have 2400 visas per month per EB2/3 categories, their demand does not seem close to fulfill the monthly quota. EB2ROW has an 18k pending inventory. Are we expecting the EB3ROW pending inventory to get even lower? Looking at the data, I want to say yes but wanted to know what others think. The last time the pending EB3ROW inventory went to 10k was in Oct 2014 and CO went on to advance the dates by 1.5 years. There is no more place for EB3ROW date advancements other than making it an official "C". Do we think he will do it after the April inventory and that's when he will start applying SO?

[EB2NOV10]

It may not quite be that yet, but it's not far away and may well accelerate beyond that for later PDs.

From the PERM data, CY2009 PD cases represent the low point in numbers and have increased substantially since then.

Indian PERM Certification by calculated PD:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k

However you spin those numbers to derive EB2-I I-485 applications, it's a substantial increase over time and the numbers of I-485 beyond 01MAY10 are far more than we have seen to date. The period that became current for 2010 (Jan-Apr) only appears to cover 25% of the total number for 2010. Numbers rise substantially from Aug 2010.

My priority date is Nov2010. What are the chances of becoming current can it be this year 2016 or next year 2017?

[Spectator]

What is the % breakdown of EB2ROW vs. EB3ROW? Over years, EB3ROW has been substantially higher than EB2ROW. But has this changed over the last few years? I also noticed an increase in PERM filings for South Korea - 5715 from 1st Jan to 29th Dec 2015. There is no doubt that there has been a substantial increase in PERM filings for India over the years since 2010. With the H1B lottery, the Indian body shops are gaming the system and taking away most of the H1Bs. Does this also mean there has been a decrease in ROW filings overall? Trying to find some positives here. ROW PERM filings were around 28k last year while India was close to 44k.

Finally, EB3ROW has 11k pending inventory and looking at PERM, I did not see any high demand for them over the last year. Considering they have 2400 visas per month per EB2/3 categories, their demand does not seem close to fulfill the monthly quota. EB2ROW has an 18k pending inventory. Are we expecting the EB3ROW pending inventory to get even lower? Looking at the data, I want to say yes but wanted to know what others think. The last time the pending EB3ROW inventory went to 10k was in Oct 2014 and CO went on to advance the dates by 1.5 years. There is no more place for EB3ROW date advancements other than making it an official "C". Do we think he will do it after the April inventory and that's when he will start applying SO?Her's the same data for ROW (excludes M&P).

2008 - 30.1k
2009 - 19.1k
2010 - 15.8k
2011 - 17.3k
2012 - 20.0k
2013 - 19.3k
2014 - 21.9k

The low point was 2010. As you said, this might be partly caused by the fact there has been an H1B lottery almost every year since the FY2008 cap season.

I'm always hesitant to specify the relative EB2/EB3 ratios. When I last did a "quick and dirty" analysis for FY2015 data based on the minimum education/experience requirements of the certified PERM, it looked like this:

-------------- EB2 ---- EB3
China ------- 70.1% -- 29.9%
India ------- 74.7% -- 25.3%
Mexico ------ 38.2% -- 61.8%
Philippines - 40.7% -- 59.3%
ROW --------- 58.0% -- 42.0%

All --------- 68.0% -- 32.0%

At the end of Q3 FY2015, the ROW split was 65:35 so it appears there is an increase in EB3 PERM certifications. As you pointed out, many of these are from South Korea and it appears many of those are in the Other Workers category.

[Umesh1209]

Do we have a view/report of how many visas were issued per year / per country / per category similar to the pending inventory? Is so can some one post the link?

[Spectator]

Do we have a view/report of how many visas were issued per year / per country / per category similar to the pending inventory? Is so can some one post the link?Umesh1209,

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics.html

Table V for each FY has the data you are looking for.

The data for FY2015 hasn't been published yet. Keep looking, it will be in the fairly near future.

Some of the data is already compiled here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/62-DHS-Data) into China, India, Mexico, Philippines and ROW

[Umesh1209]

Thanks a lot Spec !

[iatiam]

I was wondering what are the effects of economic slowdown on PERM filings and the overall GC line. The specific questions are,

1. Do you see any slowdown in hiring in your workplace especially for people on visas
2. Has the immigration process slowed down

I am eager to know what is happening in different industries.

I work in the oil and gas and its been a pretty nasty year for us and no end in sight.

Iatiam

[suninphx]

Good to see Spec back in action with lots of numbers and analysis.

[knighthood83]

Thanks Spec and Q. In the past when inventory has needed to built up, the CO had moved the dates aggressively forward and retrogressed it. Folks who got chance to file got lucky and could file. Folks who were not so lucky have been waiting for 4-5 years now. Case in point are the ones in early part of 2010. People who missed out in 2010 back in 2011 are still waiting and will continue to wait.

With the use filing date and final action date, am I right in saying that filing dates will be used to do an inventory build up next time around? If so filing date might hold steady for a long time possibly years and will not retrogress?

The reason I ask this question is if I am contemplating a carrier move, I would need a new PERM , I don't want to be caught out without an approved PERM when the next inventory build up happens.

If filing date holds steady and does not retrogress(I guess FD is not supposed to retrogress). It might give time to ppl to get there PERM's approved.

Q and Spec what are your thoughts on how this next inventory build up might happen.

[qesehmk]

I do not think inventory build up is on CO's mind because there probably isn't much spillover that can clear the backlogs while portings to EB2 are increasing EB2I inventory.
Thanks Spec and Q. In the past when inventory has needed to built up, the CO had moved the dates aggressively forward and retrogressed it. Folks who got chance to file got lucky and could file. Folks who were not so lucky have been waiting for 4-5 years now. Case in point are the ones in early part of 2010. People who missed out in 2010 back in 2011 are still waiting and will continue to wait.

With the use filing date and final action date, am I right in saying that filing dates will be used to do an inventory build up next time around? If so filing date might hold steady for a long time possibly years and will not retrogress?

The reason I ask this question is if I am contemplating a carrier move, I would need a new PERM , I don't want to be caught out without an approved PERM when the next inventory build up happens.

If filing date holds steady and does not retrogress(I guess FD is not supposed to retrogress). It might give time to ppl to get there PERM's approved.

Q and Spec what are your thoughts on how this next inventory build up might happen.

[Spectator]

knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.

[anuprab]

knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.

Spec, that's pretty dire situation for EB2 India folks. I am trying to get an idea here so as to make my life decisions on whether to still stay here in this process or call it quits and go back. To that effect does the situation seem better for EB3 India folks? When is a reasonable time frame for people in 2006 to expect their greencards? I know 2016 might be a stretch but is it likely in 2017?

[geterdone]

I was wondering what are the effects of economic slowdown on PERM filings and the overall GC line. The specific questions are,

1. Do you see any slowdown in hiring in your workplace especially for people on visas
2. Has the immigration process slowed down

I am eager to know what is happening in different industries.

I work in the oil and gas and its been a pretty nasty year for us and no end in sight.

Iatiam

I am also interested in this. I always wonder how Infy/CTS and other companies can keep bringing people every year and I guess it is going up. Do people who get GC under EB1C through these companies stay there long time or do they leave? I am not in IT so now idea things work there.

I saw that there were 12,978 EB1 visas issued to India in 2014. Any idea how much of this is EB1C?

[cool_dude]

So 2020 for EB2 May 2011 seems like a distant dream?

[qesehmk]

I saw that there were 12,978 EB1 visas issued to India in 2014. Any idea how much of this is EB1C?
You can bet 99% of them are EB1C.
p.s. - For the record - I don't see anything wrong with people getting EB1C visas. It is what it is.

[knighthood83]

Thanks I agree with that assessment. The situation for EB2 is quite dire.For folks in 2011 and beyond the situation is just horrible.

Having said that one need not stick to a job in the anticipation that dates might get current all of a sudden. Move one with there carriers and just concentrate on that.

[suninphx]

knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.

To make things worse for people waiting in line RFEs are being issued to people with PD as late as Nov/Dec 2009. That could potentially be waste of money and effort for many of them.

[geterdone]

You can bet 99% of them are EB1C.
p.s. - For the record - I don't see anything wrong with people getting EB1C visas. It is what it is.

Q, don't misunderstand my question. I know it is a very sensitive issue on immigration forums. I was not trying to say people should not get EB!C visa. I do not know anyone personally who got it under C though I know several who got under B. I was just trying to understand the force driving the increasing demand. I am not in IT and so very curious how it works.

I am a little surprised that 99% of them were under C.

[qesehmk]

Q, don't misunderstand my question. I know it is a very sensitive issue on immigration forums. I was not trying to say people should not get EB!C visa. I do not know anyone personally who got it under C though I know several who got under B. I was just trying to understand the force driving the increasing demand. I am not in IT and so very curious how it works.

I am a little surprised that 99% of them were under C.
I didn't misunderstand. I only clarified my own position in case somebody misunderstands my response!

EB1 has PHDs / researchers / outstanding artists-atheletes etc. I personally know Indian PHD folks who are filed in EB2. I do not know ANY body who got a nobel / magassasay or even an olympic gold medal to qualify for EB1-B. That leaves us with eB1C!! Thats my rationale. May be I am wrong by 4-5 %. But I will be mighty surprised if EB1C India approvals are less than 95% of total EB1India approvals!

[4WatItsWorth]

knighthood83,

My personal belief is that the new dual date system will ensure that we will not see rapid date movement again, as was seen in FY2012. That probably allowed 50k people to file under EB2-I.

Under the old single Cut Off Date system, CO had a fairly rare opportunity to move the dates forward as the previous inventory was nearly exhausted. Because the single date controlled both the ability to file and be approved, the window was relatively short - until the new applications started to be adjudicated. It therefore made sense to move the dates a long way during the short and infrequent opportunity afforded.

The new system of a Final Action Date and Application Filing Date separates the approval and filing consequences. Effectively (and this is what has been said), it allows "just in time" filing of applications consistent with the time it takes to adjudicate the application when it is current for approval.

USCIS now have the power to allow or deny inventory buildup of I-485, rather than DOS. Although DOS can set an AFD in the VB, USCIS have the power to reject it for AOS applications (and are prepared to do so). Effectively, they can blackmail DOS to set the date they want, if DOS desire new AOS applications to eventually work their way into the demand file.

So far, USCIS have made it clear by words and action that they will not accept an Application Filing Date that is more than where the Final Application Date is expected to reach in the next one year (or by the end of the current FY).

Therefore, it seems the Application Filing Date is likely to move forward in a fairly steady (if slightly jerky) fashion, based both on the density of applications and expected total visas available.

The density of applications looks like it will increase beyond where the latest date the COD ever reached. The availability of visas in future years is unknown.

USCIS are in a fairly safe place at the moment, with more applications already filed than visas available. It will be interesting to see if they will be less cautious when the Application Filing Date has to exceed 01MAY10.

All that said, my sense is that Application Filing Dates will not move beyond the latest ever seen (01MAY10) until FY2018.

I'd like to (and certainly can be) wrong in that analysis.That's a great summary! Thanks. Though, it is heartbreaking to know how bleak the future for EB-I looks.

Do you see Filing dates moving beyond Jul2009 this year? Secondly when do you see Filing Dates reaching end of 2009, specifically, Nov2009?

[Spectator]

DOS has updated the Annual Immigrant Visa Waiting List Report as of November 1, 2015. This shows of number of Consular Processing cases. For EB1/2/3 it is based on the number of approved I-140 that chose CP sent to NVC by USCIS. It includes dependents if they were specified in the I-140. Itis not analogous to the USCIS Inventory of I-485 because it will cover a far wider range of PD for retrogressed Countries.

You can find it here (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingListItem.pdf).

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. The EB5 China backlog is startling !! That alone can retrogress EB5. But the 7% limit saves the category.


DOS has updated the Annual Immigrant Visa Waiting List Report as of November 1, 2015. This shows of number of Consular Processing cases. For EB1/2/3 it is based on the number of approved I-140 that chose CP sent to NVC by USCIS. It includes dependents if they were specified in the I-140. Itis not analogous to the USCIS Inventory of I-485 because it will cover a far wider range of PD for retrogressed Countries.

You can find it here (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingListItem.pdf).

[EB2NOV10]

Guys....Feb 2016 visa bulletin it out.

Final Action Date
EB2 India -- 01AUG08 ( Advanced by 6 months)
EB3 India -- 15JUN04

[vishnu]

these are final action dates (and not just dates to build inventory), so one has to assume these dates should cover actual GC numbers..

do the experts think quarterly spillover or something to that effect is applied or so far movements are based on the 2400 only?



Guys....Feb 2016 visa bulletin it out.

Final Action Date
EB2 India -- 01AUG08 ( Advanced by 6 months)
EB3 India -- 15JUN04

[mechanical13]

these are final action dates (and not just dates to build inventory), so one has to assume these dates should cover actual GC numbers..

do the experts think quarterly spillover or something to that effect is applied or so far movements are based on the 2400 only?

It's probably just the 2400 - there are only around 2200 total pending inventory (based on oct 2015 data) + porters prior to this date. The folks in 2007 and beyond are probably the porters who are becoming visible, movement to 08/2008 is nothing to celebrate.

Any additional forward movement in subsequent months though, will probably indicate some QSO. The gurus on this forum may have a different viewpoint.

[imdeng]

These EB2I dates have been current before - more than once - so its just porters and any left demand. Doubt that any spillover is being applied. There is some decent inventory in Oct-2008 onwards - so if dates go there then we have something.

There has been no indications of any QSO.

The ridiculous charade in EB3I continues. It will continue until the summer I imagine.


It's probably just the 2400 - there are only around 2200 total pending inventory (based on oct 2015 data) + porters prior to this date. The folks in 2007 and beyond are probably the porters who are becoming visible, movement to 08/2008 is nothing to celebrate.

Any additional forward movement in subsequent months though, will probably indicate some QSO. The gurus on this forum may have a different viewpoint.

[EB2NOV10]

In some of the forum they are saying that for another 4 more visa bulletin it will move either 4 or 6 months per bulletin until mid 2016 (i.e. AUG2009 or DEC2009). Is there any chance in the last quarter to move the dates into 2010 to build inventory?

12/17/2015: DOS Visa Movement Predictions Next Year
•According to the AILA, the following is predicted by the Visa Office: ◦India EB-2: The best scenario of previous prediction is about 8 months per month, but better scenario is now predicted movement ahead from 4 months to 6 months per month. There is a caveat to this prediction. The volume of EB-3 upgradeing to EB-2 appears to rise, which will affect movement of EB-2 for India beginning from around early mid-2016.
◦EB-3 worldwide: It has been moving very rapidly lately but due to the growing demand, the cut-off date may move slow down from here on.
◦EB-5: Unlikely previous alert, it now states that DOS is scheduling visa appointments persuant to the Continuing Resolution and predicted enactment of Omnibums Appropriation Legislation for 2016.

[Spectator]

EB2NOV10,

To directly answer your question: I don't think there is any chance of dates moving (whether FAD or AFD) into 2010 this FY.

Generally, many people took CO's comments to refer to movement through the March 2016 VB. It moved 8 months in January and will move 6 months in February.

The March 2016 VB is likely to move the dates beyond 01OCT08. That period has not been current since October 2014 and contains higher numbers of porting applications that have not been current since they became eligible to port. USCIS cannot complete the interfiling process until the case is current in the VB (according to the Adjudicators Field Manual). These cases will not show in the current USCIS Inventory.

If the dates go beyond 01MAY09 at any point, those dates have not been current since April 2012 and there will be at least 4 years worth of porting cases to be added to the Inventory for those dates.

That's at least partly why CO mentioned that the volume of EB-3 upgrading to EB-2 may affect movement of the Final Action Date for India.

Edit: The AFD was at 01JUL09 for Oct/Nov 2015. Possibly the next Inventory will include some of the cases above.

[qesehmk]

The March 2016 VB is likely to move the dates beyond 01OCT08. That period has not been current since October 2014 and contains higher numbers of porting applications that have not been current since they became eligible to port. USCIS cannot complete the interfiling process until the case is current in the VB (according to the Adjudicators Field Manual). These cases will not show in the current USCIS Inventory.

That's a great insight. EB2-India folks will do well to listen.

[mfd1402]

EB2NOV10,

To directly answer your question: I don't think there is any chance of dates moving (whether FAD or AFD) into 2010 this FY.

Generally, many people took CO's comments to refer to movement through the March 2016 VB. It moved 8 months in January and will move 6 months in February.

The March 2016 VB is likely to move the dates beyond 01OCT08. That period has not been current since October 2014 and contains higher numbers of porting applications that have not been current since they became eligible to port. USCIS cannot complete the interfiling process until the case is current in the VB (according to the Adjudicators Field Manual). These cases will not show in the current USCIS Inventory.

If the dates go beyond 01MAY09 at any point, those dates have not been current since April 2012 and there will be at least 4 years worth of porting cases to be added to the Inventory for those dates.

That's at least partly why CO mentioned that the volume of EB-3 upgrading to EB-2 may affect movement of the Final Action Date for India.

Yes as per my calcs it seems that next VB should have approx 4 mths movt

[EB2NOV10]

EB2NOV10,

To directly answer your question: I don't think there is any chance of dates moving (whether FAD or AFD) into 2010 this FY.

Generally, many people took CO's comments to refer to movement through the March 2016 VB. It moved 8 months in January and will move 6 months in February.

The March 2016 VB is likely to move the dates beyond 01OCT08. That period has not been current since October 2014 and contains higher numbers of porting applications that have not been current since they became eligible to port. USCIS cannot complete the interfiling process until the case is current in the VB (according to the Adjudicators Field Manual). These cases will not show in the current USCIS Inventory.

If the dates go beyond 01MAY09 at any point, those dates have not been current since April 2012 and there will be at least 4 years worth of porting cases to be added to the Inventory for those dates.

That's at least partly why CO mentioned that the volume of EB-3 upgrading to EB-2 may affect movement of the Final Action Date for India.

Edit: The AFD was at 01JUL09 for Oct/Dec 2015. Possibly the next Inventory will include some of the cases above.

Thank you Spec

[vyruss]

EB2NOV10,

If the dates go beyond 01MAY09 at any point, those dates have not been current since April 2012 and there will be at least 4 years worth of porting cases to be added to the Inventory for those dates.

.

That is indeed a very good observation Spec. I was just looking at the pending inventory and thought it does not take much SO to take FAD to mid 2009. So what do EB3 folks post Oct 2008 need to do to become eligible for EB2 dates assuming they have already filed EB2 and have a 140 pending? Do they just file some paper work that is just procedural and is more or less instantaneous? or would it take a couple of months for USCIS to recognize that they now have a new EB2 case?

[Spectator]

That is indeed a very good observation Spec. I was just looking at the pending inventory and thought it does not take much SO to take FAD to mid 2009. So what do EB3 folks post Oct 2008 need to do to become eligible for EB2 dates assuming they have already filed EB2 and have a 140 pending? Do they just file some paper work that is just procedural and is more or less instantaneous? or would it take a couple of months for USCIS to recognize that they now have a new EB2 case?vyruss,

I think most cases will already have an EB2 I-140 approved, given the timescales. Many people will in any case have used PP to benefit from from the approved I-140 for H1B extension purposes.

I don't have any insight into USCIS procedures for handling these cases Other than what is in the AFM), the time required to do so, or whether those procedures have changed since the introduction of Application Filing Dates. I'm sure USCIS are very aware of these cases.

I have a sneaking suspicion that it is no coincidence that USCIS only allowed the 01JUL09 AFD for 2 months. During that time, they could not only accept new applications, but also complete the interfiling for previous cases with an earlier PD that were awaiting becoming current. If so, they just be like any other EB2 case when the FAD becomes current.

If so, there's probably already more than enough cases before the 01JUL09 date compared to available visas for the FY.

The next Inventory will be interesting, but previously it took more than one Inventory for the totality of the numbers to become apparent.

[prodigy_max4]

I have a sneaking suspicion that it is no coincidence that USCIS only allowed the 01JUL09 AFD for 2 months. During that time, they could not only accept new applications, but also complete the interfiling for previous cases with an earlier PD that were awaiting becoming current. If so, they just be like any other EB2 case when the FAD becomes current.

If so, there's probably already more than enough cases before the 01JUL09 date compared to available visas for the FY.


Maybe I've misreading this due to excessive optimism, but does this mean you think final action dates could reach July 2009 in this year? My EB2-I priority date is 6/29/09 - we applied for I-485 in 2012 and got the EAD/AP, just waiting on the GC approval now. Thanks.

[vyruss]

Maybe I've misreading this due to excessive optimism, but does this mean you think final action dates could reach July 2009 in this year? My EB2-I priority date is 6/29/09 - we applied for I-485 in 2012 and got the EAD/AP, just waiting on the GC approval now. Thanks.


I think what Spec merely stated was that USCIS may have enough cases to completely use up this years quota with the current inventory that has piled up prior to July 2009. USCIS may re-calibrate it when they get a complete idea after they let all the porting cases to show up as EB2 (at least internally). Hence Spec is looking for an inventory report. In the next inventory report many porting cases would show up in EB2. Once again USCIS has some estimate of how many porting cases are waiting in line, they just want to confirm it before moving the next bulletins. It may be July 2009, or before that, but definitely after Aug 2008 :p

[delguy]

Hi Gurus,

Thanks for your informative posts that help legal immigrants get clarity on various subjects. I have a question regarding promotions while working for the same employer that files for PERM/I-140. I was working as Sr. Software Engineer and now i got promoted as Technology Manager. Most of the responsibilities remains same but there are few new responsibilities such as delivery, few folks are reporting to me etc. I would say 80% responsibilities are still same as mentioned in my PERM.

What is the USCIS position on title change and also slight variation in job description? Do I have to get my employer refile PERM? If my job responsibilities stays same as before but the title is changed, do I still need to refile PERM? Any memos, field manuals, USCIS guidelines on this subject that I can refer to?

Waiting eagerly for your thoughts.
Thank you.

[EB2NOV10]

Hi Gurus,
Based on the Indian PERM filings over the years:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k
2015 - 43.7k

what are the chances of EB2-I for Nov 2010 to become current?

[vyruss]

Hi Gurus,
Based on the Indian PERM filings over the years:

2008 - 23.7k
2009 - 16.7k
2010 - 22.3k
2011 - 30.0k
2012 - 36.7k
2013 - 36.0k
2014 - 40.0k
2015 - 43.7k

what are the chances of EB2-I for Nov 2010 to become current?

It is a moving time scale. On an average the wait time has been 5 to 6 years in the past. Now the norm is 6-7 years, it may change to 8 years without any major legislation. I would rather look at the averages and not pin hopes on predictions based on number crunching which are very vague to begin with anyway. A lot of factors come into play. The only known thing is the total number of GCs that can be issued in a given year. There are reports that USCIS wastes some visas every year. So even the total number of actual GCs issued becomes a variable. With so many factors, including dependent ratio, porting, WW demand etc., going with the average makes more sense. Also note that the average itself is a number that has been increasing. So you are easily looking at October 2017 to September 2018 if you go by that reasoning.

[EB2NOV10]

It is a moving time scale. On an average the wait time has been 5 to 6 years in the past. Now the norm is 6-7 years, it may change to 8 years without any major legislation. I would rather look at the averages and not pin hopes on predictions based on number crunching which are very vague to begin with anyway. A lot of factors come into play. The only known thing is the total number of GCs that can be issued in a given year. There are reports that USCIS wastes some visas every year. So even the total number of actual GCs issued becomes a variable. With so many factors, including dependent ratio, porting, WW demand etc., going with the average makes more sense. Also note that the average itself is a number that has been increasing. So you are easily looking at October 2017 to September 2018 if you go by that reasoning.

Thank you vyruss.

[Spectator]

There are reports that USCIS wastes some visas every year. vyruss,

No longer. Let's look at the facts for the last few years:

FY ------- Allocation - Visas Issued - Over/(Under)
FY2012 ------ 144,951 ------ 144,647 -------- (304)
FY2013 ------ 158,466 ------ 161,269 ------- 2,803
FY2014 ------ 150,241 ------ 151,359 ------- 1,118

[imdeng]

We are already at 7+ years considering that 2009 people will not be done in 2016. Without legislation we are looking at a situation significantly worse than EB3I. With EB2I density shooting up in 2010 onwards, for folks joining the queue right now 10, 12, 15, 20 years to get GC are all on the table.

We might even reach EB2I downgrades to EB3I sooner than straight EB2I. i.e. EB3I CoD might cross EB2I - like it is for EB-C.


It is a moving time scale. On an average the wait time has been 5 to 6 years in the past. Now the norm is 6-7 years, it may change to 8 years without any major legislation. ...

[iatiam]

I do have a question for every one,

1. When do you expect to see EB3ROW inventory to clear out and for EB3ROW to EB3I SO to happen? If it is summer, is it too late for EB3 folks to complete medicals given the old medicals are expired?

2. If EB3I moves forward and the inventory is cleared out partially or completely, what impact would it have on EB2I. If the porting slowes down (as it should), would it result in more than expected SO to EB2I.

As Deng said, 2009ners are already at PD+7 years so any SO coming that way would be useful, to say the least.

Iatiam

[TampaCoolie]

EB2NOV10,

To directly answer your question: I don't think there is any chance of dates moving (whether FAD or AFD) into 2010 this FY.

Generally, many people took CO's comments to refer to movement through the March 2016 VB. It moved 8 months in January and will move 6 months in February.

The March 2016 VB is likely to move the dates beyond 01OCT08. That period has not been current since October 2014 and contains higher numbers of porting applications that have not been current since they became eligible to port. USCIS cannot complete the interfiling process until the case is current in the VB (according to the Adjudicators Field Manual). These cases will not show in the current USCIS Inventory.

If the dates go beyond 01MAY09 at any point, those dates have not been current since April 2012 and there will be at least 4 years worth of porting cases to be added to the Inventory for those dates.

That's at least partly why CO mentioned that the volume of EB-3 upgrading to EB-2 may affect movement of the Final Action Date for India.

Edit: The AFD was at 01JUL09 for Oct/Nov 2015. Possibly the next Inventory will include some of the cases above.

March VB will progress to 15NOV08.
I think 01OCT08 was PD cut off in Aug-2015 Bulletin for EB2-I. So majority of the porting should have been reflecting in the USCIS Oct, 2015 inventory and interfiling should have been processed.
In October-2014 VB, EB2-I PD cut off is 01MAY09. So its only 27 months ( 2 years and 1 quarter) worth of porting cases to be added not four years porting cases.

In general interfiling happens, when EB3-I folks already filed I-485 and port the existing cases to be processed under EB2. So I don't think anyone beyond PD JULY 2007 PD could have ever filed I-485 with EB3. They either ported to EB2 and filed ( this case they already accounted in the inventory) or just waiting to file since they upgraded to EB2 after PD retrogression.

CO could be indicating both side of porting ( folks who had filed already I-485 or filing new I-485).

[qesehmk]

All - I have moved all RFE discussion in a separate thread HERE (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2607-RFE-Discussion)

Appreciate your cooperation. Lets keep this thread for calculations and predictions.

[simplygc123]

I hope the filing date will start move by 2nd or 3rd quarter of 2016. It will move till Jan 2010 I guess by this year end.

[LeoAugust]

Hi,

I have the same question but PD is DEC-2013. I would appreciate to know whats is the guesstimate year for DEC-2013 to be current.

Appreciate a reply.

[misanthrope]

Oh man... so close... yet so far. My PD is Nov 20th 2008. I am really hoping to get GC before May as I have travel plans. :(

[HarepathekaIntezar]

EB3I folks seem to be getting RFE's upto 31 Dec 04. Anyone wanna predict the March VB EB3I PD Movement?

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3I folks seem to be getting RFE's upto 31 Dec 04. Anyone wanna predict the March VB EB3I PD Movement?

Yes, saw that on trackitt. Hopefully, dates move to Dec 2004 in the next VB.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I do have a question for every one,

1. When do you expect to see EB3ROW inventory to clear out and for EB3ROW to EB3I SO to happen? If it is summer, is it too late for EB3 folks to complete medicals given the old medicals are expired?

2. If EB3I moves forward and the inventory is cleared out partially or completely, what impact would it have on EB2I. If the porting slowes down (as it should), would it result in more than expected SO to EB2I.

As Deng said, 2009ners are already at PD+7 years so any SO coming that way would be useful, to say the least.

Iatiam

1A. EB3ROW should be Current in March 2016 Visa Bulletin and SO should also happen in March VB. Valid medicals are requested and can be done in 1 Week.
2A. The effect of EB3I movement on EB2I will only be known in FY17. Per current trend, EB3I should catch up with EB2I in FY17.

[EB3Iwaiting]

1A. EB3ROW should be Current in March 2016 Visa Bulletin and SO should also happen in March VB. Valid medicals are requested and can be done in 1 Week.
2A. The effect of EB3I movement on EB2I will only be known in FY17. Per current trend, EB3I should catch up with EB2I in FY17.

I agree with 2A. Porting will continue as long as EB3I does not catch up with EB2I.

[akshaya8]

Page 51 of http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/2015%20CISOMB%20Annual%20Report_508.pdf

3.3 I-140 & I-360 Filing Receipts by Preference Category (FY 2009 through 2014)*

EB1 EB2 EB3* EB4
FY Receipts Receipts Receipts Receipts
2009 17,157 19,801 19,959 6,880
2010 17,584 38,563 23,470 4,847
2011 17,106 47,576 19,929 6,639
2012 17,609 45,870 10,926 5,934
2013 20,258 46,720 4,617 8,649
2014 22,874 63,644 485 6,949
Grand
Total 112,588 262,174 79,386 39,898
Source: Information provided by USCIS (Nov. 18, 2014).

From this EB2 I is in trouble? EB3I march ahead of EB2 I - the only spillover hope for EB2 I and EB3 I is from ROW quota from respective EB2 & EB3 category.
prospectives for EB3 I looks good and also EB3 I consuming EB2I quota with porting

[imdeng]

Edited version of akshaya8's post for readability.

I-140 & I-360 Filing Receipts by Preference Category (FY 2009 through 2014)


----------EB1-------EB2-------EB3-------EB4
FY------- Receipts -Receipts -Receipts -Receipts
2009------17,157----19,801----19,959----6,880
2010------17,584----38,563----23,470----4,847
2011------17,106----47,576----19,929----6,639
2012------17,609----45,870----10,926----5,934
2013------20,258----46,720----4,617-----8,649
2014------22,874----63,644----485-------6,949
Total-----112,588---262,174---79,386----39,898

[anuprab]

Edited version of akshaya8's post for readability.

I-140 & I-360 Filing Receipts by Preference Category (FY 2009 through 2014)


----------EB1-------EB2-------EB3-------EB4
FY------- Receipts -Receipts -Receipts -Receipts
2009------17,157----19,801----19,959----6,880
2010------17,584----38,563----23,470----4,847
2011------17,106----47,576----19,929----6,639
2012------17,609----45,870----10,926----5,934
2013------20,258----46,720----4,617-----8,649
2014------22,874----63,644----485-------6,949
Total-----112,588---262,174---79,386----39,898


I genuinely hope this creates some serious fwd movement in EB3 this year, will be interesting to know the EB3 2015 numbers but I guess its too much to ask from DHS

[EB3Iwaiting]

Looking at the EB3 numbers, it is understandable how EB3ROW got cleared of last 3 years inventory last fiscal year. What bothers me is that why is CO still not advancing EB3ROW dates? Seems he is being extra conservative as this is completely unknown territory. Unless there is huge demand in 2015, which I doubt there is, shouldn't EB3ROW be already C? Or is he simply waiting to apply SO to justify making EB3ROW "C"?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Edited version of akshaya8's post for readability.

I-140 & I-360 Filing Receipts by Preference Category (FY 2009 through 2014)


----------EB1-------EB2-------EB3-------EB4
FY------- Receipts -Receipts -Receipts -Receipts
2009------17,157----19,801----19,959----6,880
2010------17,584----38,563----23,470----4,847
2011------17,106----47,576----19,929----6,639
2012------17,609----45,870----10,926----5,934
2013------20,258----46,720----4,617-----8,649
2014------22,874----63,644----485-------6,949
Total-----112,588---262,174---79,386----39,898


I would think the 2014 numbers are not factual. A Typo. Just ignore them. When we get the 2015 report, hopefully the numbers will be revised and corrected.

[Jagan01]

Hopefully they go ahead and release the I485 Pending report for Jan 2016 sometime next week.

This year should be a good year, and I sincerely hope most of us are greened.

[abcx13]

I would think the 2014 numbers are not factual. A Typo. Just ignore them. When we get the 2015 report, hopefully the numbers will be revised and corrected.


Well, even if it's a typo, it's likely still in the 4 digit rage. If there are really only 4-5k EB3 filings, there should still be plenty of spillover for EB3I even at a 2x dependency ratio. Maybe this is the relief valve at least as far as porting is concerned? Spec or someone can chime in about how this would impact EB2-I dates, but I'm guessing it would only benefit...

[akshaya8]

2009 EB2 and EB3 split is 50:50
By 2013 It is 90:10
In 2013 EB3 ROW was pre-2007, Who want to do in EB3? 485 is low or may be incorrect but even if we assume 5K it translates into 10 K demand. The EB3 ROW demand is low for 2014

ROW people can work 5 years on H1B and start Greent card in EB2. Why do they want to start in EB3 when the priority dates are 7 years behind.

Also another factor is for people filed for perm in 2013 rejection ratio was 30% to 40% it used to take 9 - 12 months. so probably another reason for low number 1-140 filing in 2014.

[akshaya8]

EB2 I & EB3 I perm approvals till 2010 vs EB2 India Inventory.
This comparison is trend only, as perm approved in Jan means it might have priority data of at least 4 before that
Comparing EB2 485 Inventory with EB2 perm approvals. looks More than 50% of EB2 I PERM approvals are for porting or employer change.


Month--------EB2I------EB3I------EB2 485 Inevtory
Aug-08------637------212
Sep-08------656------219
Oct-08------487-------162
Nov-08------361------120
Dec-08------65--------22
Jan-09------828-------276------424
Feb-09------539-------180------438
Mar-09----1069-------356------436
Apr-09----2259-------753------428
May-09---1196-------399------1049
Jun-09-----937-------312------1070
Jul-09---------3-------1---------998
Aug-09-----160-------53-------832
Sep-09-----637-------212-----1023
Oct-09----1139-------380-----1147
Nov-09----1028------343-----1009
Dec-09----1230------410-----1186
Jan-10------662------554------1082
Feb-10----1905------635------1094
Mar-10----2762------921------1307
Apr-10----1572------524------1278
May-10----2780------927------7
Jun-10----2030------677
Jul-10-----2426------809
Aug-10----1919------640
Sep-10----1244------415

[akshaya8]

Oct 2014 to Oct 2015 EB2 I & EB3 I inventory reduced by 10,600.
last year EB3 ROW moved 3 years, Still starting inventory at beginning of the year same as last year. So this year EB3 I should be getting good numbers from EB3 ROW quota, potentially it will move in to 2007.

prospects for EB2 is not good till
-----------ROW demand balances between EB2 & EB3
-----------Porting goes down.
we may see some shift in trend for next year 2017 quota.

[anuprab]

Oct 2014 to Oct 2015 EB2 I & EB3 I inventory reduced by 10,600.
last year EB3 ROW moved 3 years, Still starting inventory at beginning of the year same as last year. So this year EB3 I should be getting good numbers from EB3 ROW quota, potentially it will move in to 2007.

prospects for EB2 is not good till
-----------ROW demand balances between EB2 & EB3
-----------Porting goes down.
we may see some shift in trend for next year 2017 quota.

again my same concern. why aren't people beyond 2004 seeing RFEs then, what is USCIS waiting for?

[amulchandra]

again my same concern. why aren't people beyond 2004 seeing RFEs then, what is USCIS waiting for?

Usually USCIS takes a step by step approach. May be they want to clear 2004 first. Might wait and see for the remaining available spill over , calculate the demand and move to the next year. AT that point of time they might start sending RFEs from 2005 onward.

Is USCIS that smart? My wishful thinking may be!

[Spectator]

Saw a link to this article on Trackitt. The article can be found here (http://myimmigrationlawyer.blogspot.com/2016/01/visa-bulletin-predictions-by-charles.html) or here (http://www.szetolaw.com/content/visa-bulletin-predictions-charles-oppenheim-january-2016)

I'm not sure what to make of it. It's an analysis by the author rather than CO's actual words. That is less useful - it's impossible to distinguish which is which. Hopefully Ron Gotcher will publish what he said. Oddly, I cannot find any AILA posting about this, which is strange given that is usually the original source. It's clearly recent, since it references the updated EB3-P numbers from the NVC report. That was only updated on January 8, 2016.



Sunday, January 31, 2016

Visa Bulletin Predictions by Charles Oppenheim - January 2016

The following are the most updated predictions regarding the Visa Bulletin by Charles Oppenheim, Visa Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, U.S. Department of State, through AILA's DOS Liaison Committee:

EB-2 India Advanced More than Expected: Charlie predicted in last November that there would be about eight months of advancement in EB-2 India in the coming months. This category actually has advanced more significantly. For example, in February's Visa Bulletin, it moves forward by six months. There are two reasons for this rapid advancement. First, there has been less demand than previously anticipated because of fewer EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades and USCIS efforts to clear EB-2 India backlog cases. Secondly, it is also part of DOS strategy to advance cut off dates aggressively early on during the year to ensure that visa numbers are used up during the fiscal year. According to Charlie, "USCIS have led him to believe that the rate of demand in the coming months will reduce the rate of cut-off date movement."

EB-2 Other Countries Demand is Lower probably as a result of fewer EB-3 upgrades.

EB-2 and EB-3 China Will Continue to Advance: Demand in EB-2 China has been decreasing. Demand decreased in November by about half, when compared to October. Demand for EB-3 China is also low. In an attempt to meet usage target, Charlie will continue to advance EB-3 China. As a result, more downgrades from EB-2 to EB-3 are expected, which could "rebalance" the cut off dates of these categories. Charlie expects such rebalancing to happen over the next few months.

"Dates for Filing" Chart in the April Bulletin will be Revised by Charlie, primarily in the family-based categories. Charlie also predicts that EB-3 Other Countries filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low.

Q & A:

QUESTION: Do the numbers reported on the Waiting List for EB-3 Philippines reflect actual visa demand for this category? It has been suggested by some that as many as 80% of the 28,102 individuals listed in the report will not pursue their visa applications as a result of the visa backlog and lack of priority date movement over the years. If in fact actual demand to date has been less than expected, are you considering adjusting the priority date cut-off for this category?

ANSWER: Number use for EB-3 Philippines is at a fairly reasonable level for this point in the year. We have 5,000+ applicants which have already been reported to VO, and are only awaiting forward movement of the cut-off date. The cut-off date will continue to advance, but how quickly remains to be seen.

The "lag time" does not seem to have resulted in a lack of demand. The reason for the rapid movement of this date in FY 2015 was that we had worked through the eligible demand which was reported for overseas processing, and USCIS demand (approximately 950) was extremely low during the first four months of FY 2015. During the next three months, demand from USCIS exploded (approximately 3,000), perhaps due to a decreasing processing backlog."


The analysis for EB2-I is incorrect, because it is based on the incorrect premise that CO said EB2-I would move a total of 8 months over coming months. In fact, CO said that EB2-I might move up to 8 months per month (this was later revised downwards to 4-6 months per month).

For those that don't recall, it was also published in the December 2015 VB :


E. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment Second:

India: Up to eight months.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through March based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.



Here's another article (http://www.lewslaw.com/US_Immigration_Updates-current.php#484) that seems a bit better:


Check-In with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim (2016-01-28)

On January 8, 2016, the State Department published its Annual Report of Immigrant Visa Applicants as of November 1, 2015, with the total number of immigrant visa applicants (i.e., principals, spouses, and children) who are subject to the annual numerical limits and whose cases are on file at the National Visa Center. This "Waiting List" does not include individuals whose immigrant visa petitions are pending at USCIS.

In November, Mr. Oppenheim predicted that EB-2 India might advance up to eight months in each of the coming months. In the February 2016 Visa Bulletin, EB-2 India surpassed this earlier prediction, advancing to August 1, 2008. This aggressive forward movement is the result of less demand in the category than that which was previously anticipated and reflects a strategy of advancing dates more aggressively earlier in the year in an effort to ensure that cases can be completed and all visa numbers used within the fiscal year.

The lower demand in recent months may be attributable to fewer EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades than expected, or it may be that the last advancement sufficiently captured the bulk of the demand. Low demand may also be the result of USCIS working through a backlog of EB-2 India cases, which would give the appearance that demand has tapered off. Mr. Oppenheim indicated that recent discussions with USCIS have led him to believe that the rate of demand in the coming months will reduce the rate of cut-off date movement.

EB-2 Worldwide demand is slightly lower than it has recently been which may be the result of fewer EB-3 upgrades.

The EB-2 China Final Action Date will continue to lag behind the EB-3 China Final Action Date in February, though the surge in EB-2 demand seems to be abating. While demand was high for EB-2 China in October, demand decreased in November by about half, and was relatively low in December. Demand for EB-3 China is also on the low side, such that the first quarter usage target for this category was not met. As a result, EB-3 China continues to advance, which may spur an influx of downgrades, which could ultimately rebalance the two categories as in the past two years. Mr. Oppenheim expects this rebalancing to occur at some point over the next few months. In the meantime, both EB-2 and EB-3 China are expected to continue to advance in March.

It is likely that the EB-3 Worldwide filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low.

[harapatha]

Thanks @Spec.

What does this translate to for EB3-I. Any movement ? Any?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Saw a link to this article on Trackitt. The article can be found here (http://myimmigrationlawyer.blogspot.com/2016/01/visa-bulletin-predictions-by-charles.html) or here (http://www.szetolaw.com/content/visa-bulletin-predictions-charles-oppenheim-january-2016)

I'm not sure what to make of it. It's an analysis by the author rather than CO's actual words. That is less useful - it's impossible to distinguish which is which. Hopefully Ron Gotcher will publish what he said. Oddly, I cannot find any AILA posting about this, which is strange given that is usually the original source. It's clearly recent, since it references the updated EB3-P numbers from the NVC report. That was only updated on January 8, 2016.





The analysis for EB2-I is incorrect, because it is based on the incorrect premise that CO said EB2-I would move a total of 8 months over coming months. In fact, CO said that EB2-I might move up to 8 months per month (this was later revised downwards to 4-6 months per month).

For those that don't recall, it was also published in the December 2015 VB :

Hi Spec, I have seen what Ron had posted and it is exactly same the way you have it here. Ron receives this from AILA and it is only handed out to members, AILA does not publish it which means AILA is the only one who has access to CO and ask him questions, we are completely blocked out. AILA also asks their members NOT to post the exact words on their blogs and that's why we see the lawyers' write-ups as THEIR analysis of CO's words and not the actual words. Ron posts the EXACT words in the forum to a certain group of core members and asks them NOT to copy paste but apparently someone always does.

If we look at CO's words as posted in Ron's forum, he makes no mention of EB3ROW low demand or how it could affect EB3I movement. But the links you posted do say that "Charlie also predicts that EB-3 Other Countries filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low." If Charlie did say that, apparently its not in Ron's text. But that should be good news for EB3I.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec, I have seen what Ron had posted and it is exactly same the way you have it here. Ron receives this from AILA and it is only handed out to members, AILA does not publish it which means AILA is the only one who has access to CO and ask him questions, we are completely blocked out. AILA also asks their members NOT to post the exact words on their blogs and that's why we see the lawyers' write-ups as THEIR analysis of CO's words and not the actual words. Ron posts the EXACT words in the forum to a certain group of core members and asks them NOT to copy paste but apparently someone always does.

If we look at CO's words as posted in Ron's forum, he makes no mention of EB3ROW low demand or how it could affect EB3I movement. But the links you posted do say that "Charlie also predicts that EB-3 Other Countries filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low." If Charlie did say that, apparently its not in Ron's text. But that should be good news for EB3I.EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks for the additional info. Could you post the link to where Ron reported this. I can't find it, probably because the forum has become such a mess.

I think EB3-I will have a good year, although not possibly as good as the most optimistic predictions I have seen. I suspect that if USCIS could pick and choose which application filing dates they could use, they would allow EB3-I filing at the same date as NVC. I hope to see the EB3-I FAD advance into 2006 by the end of the FY.

Unless and until USCIS get a handle on which EB3-I cases are likely to interfile and port when the PD becomes current under EB2, it is extremely difficult to manage EB3-I effectively IMHO. I'm not holding my breath for that level of control from USCIS.

On the EB2 side, CO says "EB-2 Worldwide demand is slightly lower than it has recently been which may be the result of fewer EB-3 upgrades". I'm not convinced that means anything. The demand was expected to subside as the PERM peak worked its way through in FY2015. It would be extremely worrying if it had not reduced. It only appears to have reduced to normal historical levels. At the current run rate, it appears there might be some, but not excessive, FA within EB2 from ROW. I can't comment on M or P. I think CO overstates porting in the WW category.

Looking forward to the link.

[gcvijay]

Spec

I'm having hard time decoding this can you help us understand...

"Mr. Oppenheim indicated that recent discussions with USCIS have led him to believe that the rate of demand in the coming months will reduce the rate of cut-off date movement."

[qesehmk]

Spec

I'm having hard time decoding this can you help us understand...

"Mr. Oppenheim indicated that recent discussions with USCIS have led him to believe that the rate of demand in the coming months will reduce the rate of cut-off date movement."
I read it as the demand will increase and hence movement will slow down. (not that I agree or disagree with it ... !)

[gcvijay]

Lol I think i can't understand what do you mean by Not that I agree or disagree with it !!! Lol may be I'm very dumb to understand simple things...

[Spectator]

Spec

I'm having hard time decoding this can you help us understand...

"Mr. Oppenheim indicated that recent discussions with USCIS have led him to believe that the rate of demand in the coming months will reduce the rate of cut-off date movement."It's saying that the demand USCIS believe will occur in the coming months will be sufficiently high that the forward rate of COD movement for EB2-I will have to slow.

Demand from EB2-I itself, or from categories that supply SO would have the same effect.

Looking at the October USCIS Inventory we see that EB2-I demand per month in 2008 in the months through September averages about 135. For October 2008 through April 2009 that increases to at least 440. From May 2009 onward it is in excess of 1,000 per month.

Put another way, the Feb VB advancement (6 months) covered an additional 728 cases in the Inventory. The Jan VB advancement (8 months) covered an additional 554 cases. The Dec VB advancement (10 months) covered an additional 386 cases from the Inventory. All plus any unreported porting. Once the 7% limit is reached, further advancement relies on SO and later dates have a denser number of cases per month. The same number of available visas is going to move the dates relatively less as the dates advance.

In addition until October 2015 (not shown in Inventory), porters with PDs beyond September 2008 have not been current to complete interfiling since October 2014. Porters with PDs beyond April 2009 have not been current to complete interfiling since April 2012. The upcoming Inventory should hopefully give some clue about numbers up to a PD of July 2009, since USCIS accepted that Filing Date in October/November 2015. I hope that USCIS have processed the pending interfiling requests between then and now.

[qesehmk]

Lol I think i can't understand what do you mean by Not that I agree or disagree with it !!! Lol may be I'm very dumb to understand simple things...
It means I haven't given it a lot of thought. I only interpreted the sentence in question.

[jimmys]

Shouldn't they move the filing dates prior to moving final action dates? Any chances of getting new filing date for EB2-I in March VB?

[geterdone]

Hi Spec, I have seen what Ron had posted and it is exactly same the way you have it here. Ron receives this from AILA and it is only handed out to members, AILA does not publish it which means AILA is the only one who has access to CO and ask him questions, we are completely blocked out. AILA also asks their members NOT to post the exact words on their blogs and that's why we see the lawyers' write-ups as THEIR analysis of CO's words and not the actual words. Ron posts the EXACT words in the forum to a certain group of core members and asks them NOT to copy paste but apparently someone always does.

If we look at CO's words as posted in Ron's forum, he makes no mention of EB3ROW low demand or how it could affect EB3I movement. But the links you posted do say that "Charlie also predicts that EB-3 Other Countries filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low." If Charlie did say that, apparently its not in Ron's text. But that should be good news for EB3I.

Why is everything so secret? This is not some intellectual property or a top secret stuff. Why can't CO communicate with everybody and not just with lawyers? So much for transparency!

[imdeng]

Well - what I am reading in all the quotes is that EB2ROW demand is lower (even if slightly) and EB3ROW demand is lower as well. So *some* spillover will happen. That's good enough for me at this point. The bar is quite low for good news these days.

Interesting summer coming up.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks for the additional info. Could you post the link to where Ron reported this. I can't find it, probably because the forum has become such a mess.

I think EB3-I will have a good year, although not possibly as good as the most optimistic predictions I have seen. I suspect that if USCIS could pick and choose which application filing dates they could use, they would allow EB3-I filing at the same date as NVC. I hope to see the EB3-I FAD advance into 2006 by the end of the FY.

Unless and until USCIS get a handle on which EB3-I cases are likely to interfile and port when the PD becomes current under EB2, it is extremely difficult to manage EB3-I effectively IMHO. I'm not holding my breath for that level of control from USCIS.

On the EB2 side, CO says "EB-2 Worldwide demand is slightly lower than it has recently been which may be the result of fewer EB-3 upgrades". I'm not convinced that means anything. The demand was expected to subside as the PERM peak worked its way through in FY2015. It would be extremely worrying if it had not reduced. It only appears to have reduced to normal historical levels. At the current run rate, it appears there might be some, but not excessive, FA within EB2 from ROW. I can't comment on M or P. I think CO overstates porting in the WW category.

Looking forward to the link.

Hi Spec,

It took me a while to find the text in Ron's forum. With so many members, now there are "layers" of protections and different "categories" of members have access to different information. As you said, the forum has become a mess. Below is the text.

"Check-in with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim: January 19, 2016
Waiting List. On January 8, 2016, the State Department published its Annual Report of Immigrant Visa Applicants as of November 1, 2015, with the total number of immigrant visa applicants (i.e., principals, spouses, and children) who are subject to the annual numerical limits and whose cases are on file at the National Visa Center. This "Waiting List" does not include individuals whose immigrant visa petitions are pending at USCIS. Charlie is not aware of any efforts by USCIS to create and/or publish a similar waiting list at this time.

EB-2 India: In November, Charlie predicted that EB-2 India might advance up to eight months in each of the coming months. In the February 2016 Visa Bulletin, EB-2 India surpassed Charlie's earlier prediction, advancing to August 1, 2008. This aggressive forward movement is the result of less demand in the category than that which was previously anticipated and reflects a strategy of advancing dates more aggressively earlier in the year in an effort to ensure that cases can be completed and all visa numbers used within the fiscal year.

The lower demand in recent months may be attributable to fewer EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades than expected, or it may be that the last advancement sufficiently captured the bulk of the demand. Low demand may also be the result of USCIS working through a backlog of EB-2 India cases, which would give the appearance that demand has tapered off. Charlie indicated that recent discussions with USCIS have led him to believe that the rate of demand in the coming months will reduce the rate of cut-off date movement.

EB-2 Worldwide: EB-2 Worldwide demand is slightly lower than it has recently been which may be the result of fewer EB-3 upgrades.

EB-2 and EB-3 China: The EB-2 China Final Action Date will continue to lag behind the EB-3 China Final Action Date in February, though the surge in EB-2 demand seems to be abating. While demand was high for EB-2 China in October, demand decreased in November by about half, and was relatively low in December. Demand for EB-3 China is also on the low side, such that the first quarter usage target for this category was not met. As a result, EB-3 China continues to advance, which may spur an influx of downgrades, which could ultimately rebalance the two categories as we have seen over the past two years. Charlie expects this rebalancing to occur at some point over the next few months. In the meantime, both EB-2 and EB-3 China are expected to continue to advance in March.

Coming Attractions: No special features or future predictions are expected to be published in the March 2016 Visa Bulletin. Charlie may be revising some of the dates in the "Dates for Filing" chart in the April Bulletin, primarily in the family-based categories. It is likely that the EB-3 Worldwide filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low.

QUESTION FOR CHARLIE: Do the numbers reported on the Waiting List for EB-3 Philippines reflect actual visa demand for this category? It has been suggested by some that as many as 80% of the 28,102 individuals listed in the report will not pursue their visa applications as a result of the visa backlog and lack of priority date movement over the years. If in fact actual demand to date has been less than expected, are you considering adjusting the priority date cut-off for this category?

ANSWER: Number use for EB-3 Philippines is at a fairly reasonable level for this point in the year. We have 5,000+ applicants which have already been reported to VO, and are only awaiting forward movement of the cut-off date. The cut-off date will continue to advance, but how quickly remains to be seen.

The "lag time" does not seem to have resulted in a lack of demand. The reason for the rapid movement of this date in FY 2015 was that we had worked through the eligible demand which was reported for overseas processing, and USCIS demand (approximately 950) was extremely low during the first four months of FY 2015. During the next three months, demand from USCIS exploded (approximately 3,000), perhaps due to a decreasing processing backlog."

[Spectator]

EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks so much for the effort in finding this. It's much appreciated.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks so much for the effort in finding this. It's much appreciated.

No problem Spec. I wanted to pick your brain on something, particularly, where you said "Unless and until USCIS get a handle on which EB3-I cases are likely to interfile and port when the PD becomes current under EB2, it is extremely difficult to manage EB3-I effectively IMHO. I'm not holding my breath for that level of control from USCIS."

Now we only have inventory data up to July 07 for EB3I. That date is already current in EB2I, so whoever ports before that date should be able to file AOS. Doesn't the inventory get reduced at that time? At what point does the inventory "actually reduce" from EB3I and get counted into EB2I? Most from 05/06/07 may have already ported so I am trying to understand your statement about difficulty in managing EB3I effectively. People porting after July 07 PDs have no effect on EB3I inventory. It would be great if you can explain this a bit more.

Finally, the PERM stats, the pending inventory report in Oct (I am hoping the one coming out in Feb will give a clearer picture) and even CO said that EB3ROW demand is low. It is probably a matter of time when he starts applying SO. Being conservative, I am expecting around 10k spillover? Is that too much? Even if EB3I gets 10K SO, add the 3k quota and around 2k porting, and EB3I reduces the inventory by 15k taking us to mid 2006.

Is that being too optimistic?

[Spectator]

No problem Spec. I wanted to pick your brain on something, particularly, where you said "Unless and until USCIS get a handle on which EB3-I cases are likely to interfile and port when the PD becomes current under EB2, it is extremely difficult to manage EB3-I effectively IMHO. I'm not holding my breath for that level of control from USCIS."

Now we only have inventory data up to July 07 for EB3I. That date is already current in EB2I, so whoever ports before that date should be able to file AOS. Doesn't the inventory get reduced at that time? At what point does the inventory "actually reduce" from EB3I and get counted into EB2I? Most from 05/06/07 may have already ported so I am trying to understand your statement about difficulty in managing EB3I effectively. People porting after July 07 PDs have no effect on EB3I inventory. It would be great if you can explain this a bit more. EB3Iwaiting,

Here's my understanding.

Firstly, I agree that the effect in the EB3-I Inventory has lessened over time, since EB2-I has regularly surpassed the latest July 2007 Inventory date for EB3-I.

Firstly, USCIS cannot complete interfiling of a case from EB3 to EB2 until the EB2 COD for the PD is current. That's explained in the AFM. Until the interfiling is complete, USCIS cannot show the case under EB2 in the Inventory.

Secondly, CO has said in the past that once a case is interfiled, it shows in both the EB2 and EB3 pending demand ( and presumably also the USCIS Inventory). It is only removed from both files when the case is approved.

The current EB2-I Inventory for later years (Nov 2008 onward) is now probably quite understated because many porting cases have an approved I-140 under EB2, but their ported PD has not yet become current under EB2. It's particularly true for cases beyond a COD of 01MAY09. Hopefully, the pent up demand through June 2009 will reflect in the next published USCIS Inventory, since the Filing Date was set at 01JUL09 for a couple of months in Oct/Nov 2015.

The numbers porting from the period up to July 2007 does not appear to be trivial, even though it is reducing. Between the October 2014 and October 2015 Inventories (FY2015) there was a reduction in the EB3-I Inventory of 2.7k from PDs beyond the EB3-I Cut Off Date. The majority of those were probably porting cases.

For demand planning purposes, it would make more sense if the USCIS Inventory reflected cases ready to be interfiled (when current) as EB2 and remove them from the EB3 Inventory. That would give advance warning of the true likely EB2-I demand and also reflect the lower likely EB3-I demand. The DOS pending demand file would remain unchanged, since the visa could not be requested until the case was current under EB2, but USCIS could communicate their anticipated revised demand to DOS for FAD and Filing Date calculations.

Possibly, when it is working properly, this is the intent of the new Filing Date concept, but it appears only to give more accurate demand for EB2-I, without reducing the EB3-I demand.

[amulchandra]

I feel very sick. EB3 I is not even mentioned in this whole conversation. Looks like, as always, it is a forgotten category. EB3 I is only alive on online forums.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3Iwaiting,

Here's my understanding.

Thanks for taking the time for this detailed explanation Spec. It is true that EB2I demand is probably more than what is reflected as the new porting numbers will only show up when the EB2I Filing Date gets current. We do agree that around 2k with PDs before July 07 continue to port to EB2I and I completely agree with your statement "Between the October 2014 and October 2015 Inventories (FY2015) there was a reduction in the EB3-I Inventory of 2.7k from PDs beyond the EB3-I Cut Off Date. The majority of those were probably porting cases."

Now coming to demand planning purposes, we have no idea of demand for EB3I after July 07. Since its been almost a decade, many may have already ported but there is no data as to how many are remaining in EB3I in late 07, 08 etc. Like you said, that is probably where the Filing Date concept will come in handy, if USCIS actually chooses to use it. DOS will want to move the Final Action date and USCIS will either tell everyone to use the Final Action Date (and undo Filing Date concept like they are doing now), or actually ask people to file as per Filing Date (by moving it forward 1 year or 2) and get a sense of the EB3I demand post July 07. But that will only happen once the current inventory is close to getting wiped out.

Also, did you purposely choose NOT to comment on my last paragraph about expecting around 15k EB3I inventory to be wiped out by end of this FY?

[EB3Iwaiting]

I feel very sick. EB3 I is not even mentioned in this whole conversation. Looks like, as always, it is a forgotten category. EB3 I is only alive on online forums.
Unless and until SO starts going to EB3I, it is business as usual and there will be no mention of it. We should take positive from the statement " It is likely that the EB-3 Worldwide filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low." That will have a direct effect on EB3I, but until that happens, it is a forgotten category.

[anuprab]

Unless and until SO starts going to EB3I, it is business as usual and there will be no mention of it. We should take positive from the statement " It is likely that the EB-3 Worldwide filing date will advance if demand in that category remains low." That will have a direct effect on EB3I, but until that happens, it is a forgotten category.

this is so effed up! so porting will increase EB2I demand in all stats and inventories but wont reduce demand in other categories from where it originally ported from. So in effect both EB2I and EB3I will be stuck until all the porters get their greencards!!! this is ridiculous...why cant they take the case out from Eb3I once the 140 has been interfiled in EB2 is beyond my understanding. Its as if the whole universe is against EB3I here....sorry for being so dramatic but its about time EB3I dates move !!!!!

[Suva2001]

this is so effed up! so porting will increase EB2I demand in all stats and inventories but wont reduce demand in other categories from where it originally ported from. So in effect both EB2I and EB3I will be stuck until all the porters get their greencards!!! this is ridiculous...why cant they take the case out from Eb3I once the 140 has been interfiled in EB2 is beyond my understanding. Its as if the whole universe is against EB3I here....sorry for being so dramatic but its about time EB3I dates move !!!!!

I am EB3-I but I see a valid logic for USCIS here. Officially both the applications are pending only the later application getting the earlier PD. If EB3-I becomes current before EB2-I then they would approve EB3-I application instead of EB2-I and that's the whole reason to keep both the applications alive. Though it's not practical for India but it's practical for China. So don't blame them.

Thanks

[Spectator]

I am EB3-I but I see a valid logic for USCIS here. Officially both the applications are pending only the later application getting the earlier PD. If EB3-I becomes current before EB2-I then they would approve EB3-I application instead of EB2-I and that's the whole reason to keep both the applications alive. Though it's not practical for India but it's practical for China. So don't blame them.

ThanksSuva2001,

You're right of course but there is a twist with USCIS procedures.

Interfiling is a request to change the basis of the I-485 approval from one approved I-140 to another (say EB3 to EB2). The AFM says a written request must be made to do so. Once that has been actioned (when the EB2 PD is current), another written request is needed if the applicant then wishes to change the basis for approval back to the EB3 I-140.

For USCIS, the case can only be approved under one category at a time (the last requested by the applicant). They should not (according to their own procedures) approve the case under a different category just because that becomes current first. So there's no sense in USCIS showing the case in more than one category at any point in time.

Regardless, it shouldn't be rocket science for USCIS to compile figures of potential upcoming category changes due to pending interfiling requests and the number of cases that have I-140 approvals under both EB2 and EB3. They clearly don't have this information, because CO has commented frequently that he has no visibility of porting cases until they are approved.

On the Chinese forums, there are cases where people have downgraded to EB3 then back to EB2 and then back to EB3, chasing and missing a current PD. They have had to inform USCIS of each change.

[self.coach]

Folks, how does USCIS determine change of processing center. I was in a state where the processing center should be Texas and now I have moved to a state where the processing center should be Nebraska. I submitted AR-11 and AC-21 during job change, got my EAD renewed. In the latest document I got from USCIS, I read somewhere that the document was still processed by the Texas center.

1) Will USCIS change the center from Texas to Nebraska?
2) Will it affect my greencard chances positively?
3) Can this relocation have any negative impact on my i485?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Suva2001,

You're right of course but there is a twist with USCIS procedures.

Interfiling is a request to change the basis of the I-485 approval from one approved I-140 to another (say EB3 to EB2). The AFM says a written request must be made to do so. Once that has been actioned (when the EB2 PD is current), another written request is needed if the applicant then wishes to change the basis for approval back to the EB3 I-140.

For USCIS, the case can only be approved under one category at a time (the last requested by the applicant). They should not (according to their own procedures) approve the case under a different category just because that becomes current first. So there's no sense in USCIS showing the case in more than one category at any point in time.

Regardless, it shouldn't be rocket science for USCIS to compile figures of potential upcoming category changes due to pending interfiling requests and the number of cases that have I-140 approvals under both EB2 and EB3. They clearly don't have this information, because CO has commented frequently that he has no visibility of porting cases until they are approved.

On the Chinese forums, there are cases where people have downgraded to EB3 then back to EB2 and then back to EB3, chasing and missing a current PD. They have had to inform USCIS of each change.

Spec, this is great insight. Thanks for the info. If an applicant has to provide a letter to tell USCIS which category they want to belong to (EB3 or EB2), that means the applicant actually exists in only one category and not both. Earlier I was under the impression that since both I-140s are valid, in the eyes of USCIS, the applicant exists in both categories and hence, they were double counted. That can only be removed once GC is issued. But clearly that is not the case. The applicant has to tell USCIS that they want to be either in EB2 or EB3, so shouldn't USCIS be able to make adjustments accordingly?

Just when I think USCIS could not be any more lazy or inefficient, they come back to surprise me.

[Spectator]

EB3Iwaiting,

It's my understanding based on the publicly available information. What happens in practice is another matter.

Suva does raise a very valid point though. It would be an administrative nightmare to keep changing records, particularly when you get into the Chinese situation. Perhaps USCIS resource is better spent actually approving cases. Syncing that with the DOS IVAMS system is another matter. Technically, the applicant does (eventually) have a basis under 2 different employment based categories to become an LPR. The DOS pending demand file reflects that situation we are led to believe. I can see both sides of the coin, even if I would prefer to see one scenario over the other.

[anuprab]

EB3Iwaiting,

It's my understanding based on the publicly available information. What happens in practice is another matter.

Suva does raise a very valid point though. It would be an administrative nightmare to keep changing records, particularly when you get into the Chinese situation. Perhaps USCIS resource is better spent actually approving cases. Syncing that with the DOS IVAMS system is another matter. Technically, the applicant does (eventually) have a basis under 2 different employment based categories to become an LPR. The DOS pending demand file reflects that situation we are led to believe. I can see both sides of the coin, even if I would prefer to see one scenario over the other.

Spec, you are right. I had this conversation with my lawyer as my spouse case is in EB2 and mine in EB3. they said the same thing if we interfile to his EB2 but dates under EB3 move ahead, we have to interfile again asking me to be primary. I know this situation is slightly different than porting cases where the primary applicant is the same but drives home the point that USCIS doesn't take the case out from the other category even when they have interfiling request. However atleast for EB3 I sake I am assuming this will not impact much as most with 2005 or 06 PD will have already ported and got their greencard. It will make a big difference post 2008 dates for both categories.

[asankaran]

Hi Guys,

I will be travelling to India\Chennai after 3 years and would be using EAD/AP. I will be transiting via Doha. Is there anything I have to carry additional documents apart from EAD\AP I may have to carry ? Any recent experiences.

Thanks.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Hi Guys,

I will be travelling to India\Chennai after 3 years and would be using EAD/AP. I will be transiting via Doha. Is there anything I have to carry additional documents apart from EAD\AP I may have to carry ? Any recent experiences.

Thanks.

NO! You don't need to carry anything else.

[givemegc]

asankaran:

Suggest you carry receipt notices for I-485 and paystub for last few months. Additionally will recommend you carry a folder with all immigration docs like previous H1-B, Employment letter, Few Utility bills and proof of address etc. I have never been questioned on these but better to be safe than sorry. A lot of officer still do not understand EAD/AP card properly esp if you are entering US from small airport.

[Spectator]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-march-2016.html

EB2-I - 15OCT08
EB3-I - 15JUL04
EB3-ROW - 01JAN16


D. VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS

FAMILY-sponsored categories (potential monthly movement)

Worldwide dates:

F1: Three to five weeks
F2A: Up to one month
F2B: Up to three weeks
F3: Up to four weeks
F4: Three to four weeks

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First: Current

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current

China: Up to five months.

India: Up to three months.

Employment Third:

Worldwide: The rapid forward movement of this cut-off date during the past ten months should generate a significant amount of
demand for numbers. When such demand begins to materialize it will be necessary to limit movement of this cut-off date.

China: Up to five months.
India: Up to one month.
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date.
Philippines: Up to four months.

Employment Fourth: Current for most countries

Employment Fifth: The category will remain "Current" for most countries.

China-mainland born: Slow forward movement.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through June based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.

Notable compared to any previous predictions is that EB4 is likely to retrogress for some Countries. That means there may be no SO from EB4 in FY2016. Not surprising given the large uptick in I-360 receipts and approvals.

[CleanSock]

Not much movement for EB2I in this bulletin OCT 2008

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-march-2016.html

[Jagan01]

They plan to move the EB2I dates ahead in the coming months. So looks like early conservative amount of SO will be applied.

[CleanSock]

How come DF for China moved but not for India? Is it because we are still far away from reaching that date?

[amulchandra]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-march-2016.html

EB2-I - 15OCT08
EB3-I - 15JUL04
EB3-ROW - 01JAN16



Notable compared to any previous predictions is that EB4 is likely to retrogress for some Countries. That means there may be no SO from EB4 in FY2016. Not surprising given the large uptick in I-360 receipts and approvals.

The Filing dates are finally current for EB3 Row. Do you think they are preparing to make EB3 ROW current in the next VB? Does this mean a good SO for EB3 I? Your thoughts are appreciated.

Thank you very much

Amul

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3ROW Final Action Date has moved to 1 Jan 2016. So, technically the category is current. I think this shows that EB3ROW demand continues to be low. As to what CO said:

"Employment Third:

Worldwide: The rapid forward movement of this cut-off date during the past ten months should generate a significant amount of
demand for numbers. When such demand begins to materialize it will be necessary to limit movement of this cut-off date."

he is being conservative considering this is the first time it has happened since July 07. He is finding it extremely difficult to accept that EB3ROW demand is actually low.

[jimmys]

How come DF for China moved but not for India? Is it because we are still far away from reaching that date?

But aren't these dates only reference? USCIS decides who can file I-485.

https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletin-feb-16

DOS had Jul 1,2009 as filing date for EB2-I in Feb 16 VB but USCIS's filing date was Aug 01,2008.

[imdeng]

Yup - there seems to be this giant resistance to accept that EB3ROW is actually C and has been for a while. After some time there will be no choice but to accept. Changing the FD to C is the first step.

EB-3C might actually catch up with EB-3ROW. EB-2C is going to see bunch of downgrades to EB-3C. EB-C overall might actually catch up to EB-ROW overall. That would be insane!



he is being conservative considering this is the first time it has happened since July 07. He is finding it extremely difficult to accept that EB3ROW demand is actually low.

[GCwaiting]

Was checking ..... http://www.immigration-law.com "THE OH LAW FIRM"

State Department Prediction for Visa Availability in the Coming Month

EB-Based Categories (potential monthly movement)
EB-1: Current
EB-2:
Worldwide: Current
China: Up to five months.
India: Up to three months.
EB-3:
Worldwide: The rapid forward movement of this cut-off date during the past ten months should generate a significant amount of demand for numbers. When such demand begins to materialize it will be necessary to limit movement of this cut-off date.
China: Up to five months.
India: Up to one month.
Mexico: Will remain at the worldwide date.
Philippines: Up to four months.
EB-4: Current for most countries
EB-5: The category will remain "Current" for most countries. China-mainland born: Slow forward movement.

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through June based on current applicant demand patterns. Readers should never assume that recent trends in cut-off date movements are guaranteed for the future, or that "corrective" action will not be required at some point in an effort to maintain number use within the applicable annual limits. The determination of the actual monthly cut-off dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables.

I am a very disappointed by the last statement of DOS.... "The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through June based on current applicant demand patterns" .....
Does this mean that SO to EB3I will happen only in July-Qtr ??
Looking at the EB3 ROW current status, thought that there will be SO to EB3I in Apr-Qtr.

[qesehmk]

....current applicant demand patterns.....
Those are the most important words and the ones that yield their own prediction useless. why? because for backlogged countries due to the retrogression the demand thins out as u go back in time.

[GCwaiting]

Thanks qesehmk !!!
Nice catch.
Definitely "...current applicant demand patterns....." will not remain the same. It would change.
Hope this change turns positive for EB3 I. Brings new hope :-) !!

It has been a very long & painful wait for more than a decade & half. This has really taught me what life is all about.

[imdeng]

Considering that EB2ROW has been Current and EB2I gets spillover only in the last quarter of the year (ignoring exceptions like 2012), the same might happen with EB3I even after EB3ROW becomes C. CO might wait until the last three months of FY for any SO to EB3I.

Have patience everyone - its gonna happen. I know how hard this wait is - but like everything else - this too shall pass.


...
Does this mean that SO to EB3I will happen only in July-Qtr ??
Looking at the EB3 ROW current status, thought that there will be SO to EB3I in Apr-Qtr.

[anuprab]

Considering that EB2ROW has been Current and EB2I gets spillover only in the last quarter of the year (ignoring exceptions like 2012), the same might happen with EB3I even after EB3ROW becomes C. CO might wait until the last three months of FY for any SO to EB3I.

Have patience everyone - its gonna happen. I know how hard this wait is - but like everything else - this too shall pass.

i hope I have my job till then. have been hanging on to it for last so many years and with the current state of stock markets I am just hoping I can hang on for atleast one more year :( cant imagine giving up after enduring so much ...

[misanthrope]

So the spillover will only happen in the last quarter (July/Aug/Sep) and until then the EB2 dates would either crawl or stagnate? Reason I ask is because we have travel plans in April end and my PD is Nov 20, 2008. I am a month + change away from being current and it would suck to get a RFE for medical around the time we have to travel. FYI, I we submitted our medicals in Sep 2014. While I am on this, does EVERYONE with medical records older than a year get a RFE now?

[imdeng]

There will be no SO until last few months - but EB2I dates are moving with regular numbers. Mar VB saw 2.5 months movement from Feb VB. So you may be current in Apr VB.

Medicals are valid for 1 year from the day USCIS receives them. Once they are expired, new valid ones are needed for approval. No way around that I believe.


So the spillover will only happen in the last quarter (July/Aug/Sep) and until then the EB2 dates would either crawl or stagnate? Reason I ask is because we have travel plans in April end and my PD is Nov 20, 2008. I am a month + change away from being current and it would suck to get a RFE for medical around the time we have to travel. FYI, I we submitted our medicals in Sep 2014. While I am on this, does EVERYONE with medical records older than a year get a RFE now?

[4WatItsWorth]

There will be no SO until last few months - but EB2I dates are moving with regular numbers. Mar VB saw 2.5 months movement from Feb VB. So you may be current in Apr VB.

Medicals are valid for 1 year from the day USCIS receives them. Once they are expired, new valid ones are needed for approval. No way around that I believe.
Can up to 3 months' forward movement each month for next three months (Apr-Jun) be supported without SO?

[vyruss]

Can up to 3 months' forward movement each month for next three months (Apr-Jun) be supported without SO?

I am sure the gurus here can make a good assessment of that once they see the inventory :p It should be out by now but for some reason is not yet!

[givemegc]

With respect to FY2016 , can someone advise what month is FY2016 ending for visa category and bulletin. if someone says SO will happen 3 months before fy2016 ends does he mean July 2016 ( 3 months before Oct ) or Sept 2016 ( 3 months before Dec 2016 )

[anuprab]

I am sure the gurus here can make a good assessment of that once they see the inventory :p It should be out by now but for some reason is not yet!

I hope they come out with the inventory report and the pending lawsuit doesn't impact it in any manner...

[imdeng]

Not once we reach into 2009. Latter half of 2008 has been current enough number of times that much of the porting demand from there has already been sucked out. 2009 on the other hand should have more porting cases that will slow down the movement. Even straight inventory in after last year's high water mark is high enough that not much movement will happen there without SO.

Can up to 3 months' forward movement each month for next three months (Apr-Jun) be supported without SO?

[imdeng]

FY starts Oct 1st - so last three month of FY16 would be July-Aug-Sep. Traditionally Aug has been the large spillover month. Sep is for mop-over duty and to make sure quotas are fully used.

[imdeng]

Light@EOT - Do you anticipate your I-140 being withdrawn once you leave your employer. If not then with AC21 you are in good shape.

[Jagan01]

Can up to 3 months' forward movement each month for next three months (Apr-Jun) be supported without SO?
1. Any movement beyond Oct 2008 will be possible only after using SO.
2. CO will be using small chunks of SO to support the forward movement.
3. The prediction is up to 3 months. So it may be anywhere from 0 months to 3 months. I believe it will move in increments of 1 month every VB until June 2009, and after that it will be moving ahead depending on how much SO is unused.

[akshaya8]

Perm Approvals from Jan'09 to Apr'10
Month----EB2----EB3
Jan'09----828----276
Feb'09----539----180
Mar'09---1069----356
Apr'09---2259----753
May'09---1196----399
Jun'09----937----312
Jul'09------3----1
Aug'09----160----53
Sept'09---637----212
Oct'09---1139----380
Nov'09---1028----343
Dec'09---1230----410
Jan'10---1662----554
Feb'10---1905----635
Mar'10---2762----921
Apr'10---1572----524
Total---18926----6309

current 485 inventory for this time frame is 15K, based on EB3 perm approvals potentially 25% more inventory added for this time frame from porting alone.

Moving past April 2010 looks not possible before 2018

[simplygc123]

Perm Approvals from Jan'09 to Apr'10
Month----EB2----EB3
Jan'09----828----276
Feb'09----539----180
Mar'09---1069----356
Apr'09---2259----753
May'09---1196----399
Jun'09----937----312
Jul'09------3----1
Aug'09----160----53
Sept'09---637----212
Oct'09---1139----380
Nov'09---1028----343
Dec'09---1230----410
Jan'10---1662----554
Feb'10---1905----635
Mar'10---2762----921
Apr'10---1572----524
Total---18926----6309

current 485 inventory for this time frame is 15K, based on EB3 perm approvals potentially 25% more inventory added for this time frame from porting alone.

Moving past April 2010 looks not possible before 2018

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Very useful information. So the filing date my move till Mar 2010 and Final date may move till Nov 2009 at the good case. In Best case final date may move till Jan 2010 and Filing date my move till May 2010.

[iatiam]

Perm Approvals from Jan'09 to Apr'10
Month----EB2----EB3
Jan'09----828----276
Feb'09----539----180
Mar'09---1069----356
Apr'09---2259----753
May'09---1196----399
Jun'09----937----312
Jul'09------3----1
Aug'09----160----53
Sept'09---637----212
Oct'09---1139----380
Nov'09---1028----343
Dec'09---1230----410
Jan'10---1662----554
Feb'10---1905----635
Mar'10---2762----921
Apr'10---1572----524
Total---18926----6309

current 485 inventory for this time frame is 15K, based on EB3 perm approvals potentially 25% more inventory added for this time frame from porting alone.

Moving past April 2010 looks not possible before 2018

The numbers for July doesn't make sense. Just 4 applications? Plus the 485 inventory is significantly more.

[akshaya8]

PERM approved in FY2015(9/30/2015)

Determination---FY--------Q1------------Q2--------Q3-------Q4
Certified--------78,938----16,172-----20,173----17,740---24,853
Denied-----------5,851------1,065---------999-----1,779-----2,008
Withdrawn-------4,362------1,103-------1,091----1,072-----1,096

Top Countries of Citizenship

India----------45,670---58%
China-----------6,411 8%
South Korea--4,895----6%
Canada--------2,962---4%

78,938
52,081 (India + China)
--------
26,857- ROW

EB2 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.
EB3 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.

68K - 54K (ROW 27K perms * 2) = 14 K spillover


Assuming similar perm ratios continued in first 2 Quarters of FY16 & USCIS maintains similar inventory in the pipe at the end of Sept'16. We can expect around 14K spillover for India (for EB2 and EB3 together). we can expect at least to clear half of current inventory i.e. 14K + 6K = 20K from 39K Pending india EB2 and EB3 Inventory. how ever high usage of ROW in EB2 and EB3 to EB2 porting in india category majority of reduction around 15K may happen in EB3 India

[4WatItsWorth]

PERM approved in 2015

Determination---FY--------Q1------------Q2--------Q3-------Q4
Certified--------78,938----16,172-----20,173----17,740---24,853
Denied-----------5,851------1,065---------999-----1,779-----2,008
Withdrawn-------4,362------1,103-------1,091----1,072-----1,096

Top Countries of Citizenship

India----------45,670---58%
China-----------6,411 8%
South Korea--4,895----6%
Canada--------2,962---4%

78,938
52,081 (India + China)
--------
26,857- ROW

EB2 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.
EB3 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.

68K - 54K (ROW 27K perms * 2) = 14 K spillover


Assuming similar perm ratios continued in first 2 Quarters of FY16 & USCIS maintains similar inventory in the pipe at the end of Sept'16. We can expect around 14K spillover for India (for EB2 and EB3 together). we can expect at least to clear half of current inventory 14K + 6K = 20K. how ever high usage of ROW in EB2 and EB3 to EB2 in india category majority of reduction around 15K may happen in EB3 IndiaHow far can that move the EB2-I PD to? Is Nov2009 possible?

[anuprab]

How far can that move the EB2-I PD to? Is Nov2009 possible?

same question but for EB3I? Also since EB3 Row filing are less than Eb2 more SO should go to EB3I? Am I correct in assuming that?

[givemegc]

all that would be so easy to predict if we could get the quarterly inventory of pending I-485. But alas we live in the dark ages of exploitation.

[rbusgc]

PERM approved in FY2015(9/30/2015)

Determination---FY--------Q1------------Q2--------Q3-------Q4
Certified--------78,938----16,172-----20,173----17,740---24,853
Denied-----------5,851------1,065---------999-----1,779-----2,008
Withdrawn-------4,362------1,103-------1,091----1,072-----1,096

Top Countries of Citizenship

India----------45,670---58%
China-----------6,411 8%
South Korea--4,895----6%
Canada--------2,962---4%

78,938
52,081 (India + China)
--------
26,857- ROW

EB2 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.
EB3 40K - ~6k (India + china ) = 34K for ROW.

68K - 54K (ROW 27K perms * 2) = 14 K spillover


Assuming similar perm ratios continued in first 2 Quarters of FY16 & USCIS maintains similar inventory in the pipe at the end of Sept'16. We can expect around 14K spillover for India (for EB2 and EB3 together). we can expect at least to clear half of current inventory i.e. 14K + 6K = 20K from 39K Pending india EB2 and EB3 Inventory. how ever high usage of ROW in EB2 and EB3 to EB2 porting in india category majority of reduction around 15K may happen in EB3 India

Please let me know why you have calculated 27K * 2?? ... shouldn't it be just 27K?? (Fiscal Year 2015 was fully considered for 27K and hence the question)...:confused:

[EB3Iwaiting]

Please let me know why you have calculated 27K * 2?? ... shouldn't it be just 27K?? (Fiscal Year 2015 was fully considered for 27K and hence the question)...:confused:

He considered dependents and considered the multiplying factor of 2.0. PERMs are for primary applicants only but AOS applications includes dependents of the primary applicant, hence the multiplication of 2, though it should ideally be 2.1 or 2.2 (some have dependent children).

[usvisas]

From the reports published on the us visas site https://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/statistics.html, it appears Indians got the following numbers. 2015 reports are yet to be published. Do gurus out here know what the 2015 numbers would have been?

EB2 EB3
2015
2014 12978 23527 3465
2013 9640 17193 7763
2012 9506 19726 2758
2011 4563 23997 3954

[EB3Iwaiting]

It is getting pretty obvious that the EB visa stats are purposely not being released because of the pending lawsuit. That also goes for the pending inventory report.

[vyruss]

It is getting pretty obvious that the EB visa stats are purposely not being released because of the pending lawsuit. That also goes for the pending inventory report.

Why is it so "Obvious"? Curious because I saw similar postings on other forums.

[Raj0687]

2014 - EB2I - 23527 .... seems fishy

[qesehmk]

2014 - EB2I - 23527 .... seems fishy
don't forget EB3I->EB2I portings from 2003-2008. All those numbers are included there.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Post July 07 EB3I demand must be very thin. Fewer filings and most have already ported.

[imdeng]

Yup - I expect so too. Just like EB3ROW just zoomed through post 2007, I am expecting that EB3I will move really quickly once it passes the 07/07 threshold.

PS> Although I expected the same for EB2I - that the inventory in low in 2009 so we should zoom through 2009. I couldn't have been more wrong.


Post July 07 EB3I demand must be very thin. Fewer filings and most have already ported.

[knighthood83]

When will 2009 clear? Also once EB3 moves past 2007 where do you think it will stop?

[misanthrope]

So as usual you guys were on the money. I got an email notification of RFE today and I can safely assume it is going to be for Medical Records. I am expected to be current in March VB.

[akshaya8]

copied from other blogs

PERM approval count for countries other than India and china where Decision Year is considered from 01 Jan 2 thru 31st Dec is as given below :

Decision class PERM
Year count
------------------------------------
2007 EB2 1803
2007 EB3 5604
2008 EB2 6546
2008 EB3 15948
2009 EB2 5521
2009 EB3 14816
2010 EB2 11208
2010 EB3 26153
2011 EB2 7338
2011 EB3 13150
2012 EB2 8872
2012 EB3 12201
2013 EB2 4928
2013 EB3 5861
2014 EB2 10718
2014 EB3 13760
2015 EB2 12510
2015 EB3 14870

Probably ROW PERM approved till April'2016 has a chance to be approved in FY2016 Quota.

The number of Green Cards issued under EB2 India category is as follows:

FY 2014 - 23,527
FY 2013 - 17,193
FY 2012 - 19,726
FY 2011 - 23,997
FY 2010 - 19,961
FY 2009 - 10,106
FY 2008 - 14,806

[imdeng]

Several numbers don't make sense. Could you please post a link to the source.

copied from other blogs

PERM approval count for countries other than India and china where Decision Year is considered from 01 Jan 2 thru 31st Dec is as given below :

[akshaya8]

http://chatur-chintamani.blogspot.com/

Eb2/EB3 breakup may be not correct as that analysis is quite difficult. But sum of ROW looks to be correct.

one thing is these number doesn't map to consumption of almost 30K EB2 in ROW consistently in last few years.

last 5 years [ Jan 2011 - Jan 2015] ROW EB3 perms approved max number is 60K perms.

Jan 5 2011 EB3 ROW inventory is ROW- 47,627 + MX- 7,552+ PH- 9,700 = ~65k
Oct 2015 EB3 ROW[MX+PH] inventory is 15K

Average 10K Inventory reduced over 5 years + Assumption is last year EB3 got ~3K spillover.

probably most of EB3 cases may be treated as EB2 in the analysis. these number reinforce that we can expect surprise for EB3 this year As inventory at the start of the year is low and USCIS carry forward this level of inventory to next year

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3ROW pending inventory has been holding steady at around 11k from 07/2014. It went down to 8k at 1/1/2015. All this while the dates moved forward 3 years clearing all its backlog. Now the pending inventory remains at 11k (as per the Oct report, the jan report may have the numbers even lower), and ROW dates have no where else to advance.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

EB3ROW pending inventory has been holding steady at around 11k from 07/2014. It went down to 8k at 1/1/2015. All this while the dates moved forward 3 years clearing all its backlog. Now the pending inventory remains at 11k (as per the Oct report, the jan report may have the numbers even lower), and ROW dates have no where else to advance.

Everyone sees that. Looks like DOS will be making EB3ROW Current for Final Action in April VB, wait for 2 more months and start Spill Over in July VB moving EB3I to 31st Dec, 2004.

[viveksawhney]

So as usual you guys were on the money. I got an email notification of RFE today and I can safely assume it is going to be for Medical Records. I am expected to be current in March VB.

whats your PD ?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Didn't CO say that he will start applying SO from June VB?

"Charlie predicts that the June Visa Bulletin will be more eventful. Charlie expects greater changes to final action dates and for unused numbers to move down to other categories in June."

What I do not get is why was EB3I moved to Dec 04 and then retrogressed? The demand is very well known and there is no need to "generate demand" that the dates need to be moved forward aggressively. Why move it to Dec 04 aggressively only to retrogress it back to March? Now, even with 1 month movement per VB, we get to Sep 04 in the May VB. Reaching Dec 04 with the "first SO" would only take us to where we were in Sep 2015. Is that what you think? Are you basing this on the fact that everyone with Dec 04 PDs have gotten RFEs and no one after that?

[amulchandra]

Pending inventory released.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_01-12-2016.pdf

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Pending inventory released.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_01-12-2016.pdf

The only thing that is obvious is that EB2I is hosed. It has been obvious for a while..but somehow Ostriches refused to believe it! Heavy demand in EB1, heavy demand in EB2ROW and porters will combine to make this FY a nightmare! In fact only porters will be getting GC's this FY.

[rbusgc]

How come the numbers for EB2I increased from previous inventory to new one for 2009 Aug to 2010 Jan dates???... Those dates where never current during the last 3 months for USCIS to accept any new I485s? Not sure what is going on with USCIS. :confused:

[YTeleven]

Here is my take on this: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_01-12-2016.pdf

Earlier I thought FY09 EB2-I PDs will get their GCs in FY16 i.e. this year.
Now I'm thinking this may not be possible completely (not sure what happens to their Medical RFEs) and they have to wait for another year i.e. till FY17, that makes them to wait for +8 years from their PDs to realize their GC dreams.
We are not even talking about FY10 or FY11 PDs (may be their wait times will result in +9yrs or +10yrs from their PDs).
God only knows the fate of FY12 and beyond PDs (I don't want to think of anything beyond 4 years from now).

why are FY09 EB2-I PDs stuck like this?
1) ZERO spillover from EB1 and this will be continued for couple of more years in future until we see another recession.
2) Upward porting from EB3-I to EB2-I. I clearly see that there is 1500 increase in inventory between Oct15 and Jan16.
This is the reason why the USCIS is NOT honoring the filing dates proposed by DOS in the VBs from NOV'15 onwards instead it is using the final action dates. This will continue until the EB3-I catchup the EB2-I dates stopping the upward porting completely.
3) Moderate spillover from EB2-ROW to EB2-I. This will continue until the EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW demand split equally.

What makes the FY09 EB2-I PDs move forward at least next year?
The points 2 & 3 from the above question are directly or indirectly tied up with the actions happening in EB3 category.
Here is what I'm thinking that will happen: Seeing the low demand in EB3-ROW will give a huge spillover to EB3-I by this yearend, I was expecting this should be around 20k spillover for the long time now. If this happens then the EB3-I backlogs will erase till 2007 and CO will get an opportunity to open up the FY08 and FY09 for EB3-I to see that there is not much demand exists (as most of them are ported already), that is when the EB3-I will catch up with EB2-I dates, nullifying the upward porting and making way to downward porting and forward movement in EB2-I beyond FY09 PDs. So KEY here is the huge spillover from EB3-ROW to EB3-I. ( I’m still positive this will happen this year)
Alternatively, based on point 3 above, currently the ROW demand is concentrated in EB2 which should be spread across equally into EB3 once the both categories become CURRENT, which will increase the EB2-ROW spillover but might reduce the EB3-ROW spillover, in either case EB2&3-I will get benefit from the spillover.
Going forward we need to consider these 2 categories EB2 and EB3 together yielding a combined spillover to EB2-I and EB3-I which interns dictates the need of downward porting from EB2-I to EB3-I.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Here is my take on this: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_01-12-2016.pdf

Earlier I thought FY09 EB2-I PDs will get their GCs in FY16 i.e. this year.
Now I'm thinking this may not be possible completely (not sure what happens to their Medical RFEs) and they have to wait for another year i.e. till FY17, that makes them to wait for +8 years from their PDs to realize their GC dreams.
We are not even talking about FY10 or FY11 PDs (may be their wait times will result in +9yrs or +10yrs from their PDs).
God only knows the fate of FY12 and beyond PDs (I don't want to think of anything beyond 4 years from now).

why are FY09 EB2-I PDs stuck like this?
1) ZERO spillover from EB1 and this will be continued for couple of more years in future until we see another recession.
2) Upward porting from EB3-I to EB2-I. I clearly see that there is 1500 increase in inventory between Oct15 and Jan16.
This is the reason why the USCIS is NOT honoring the filing dates proposed by DOS in the VBs from NOV'15 onwards instead it is using the final action dates. This will continue until the EB3-I catchup the EB2-I dates stopping the upward porting completely.
3) Moderate spillover from EB2-ROW to EB2-I. This will continue until the EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW demand split equally.

What makes the FY09 EB2-I PDs move forward at least next year?
The points 2 & 3 from the above question are directly or indirectly tied up with the actions happening in EB3 category.
Here is what I'm thinking that will happen: Seeing the low demand in EB3-ROW will give a huge spillover to EB3-I by this yearend, I was expecting this should be around 20k spillover for the long time now. If this happens then the EB3-I backlogs will erase till 2007 and CO will get an opportunity to open up the FY08 and FY09 for EB3-I to see that there is not much demand exists (as most of them are ported already), that is when the EB3-I will catch up with EB2-I dates, nullifying the upward porting and making way to downward porting and forward movement in EB2-I beyond FY09 PDs. So KEY here is the huge spillover from EB3-ROW to EB3-I. ( I’m still positive this will happen this year)
Alternatively, based on point 3 above, currently the ROW demand is concentrated in EB2 which should be spread across equally into EB3 once the both categories become CURRENT, which will increase the EB2-ROW spillover but might reduce the EB3-ROW spillover, in either case EB2&3-I will get benefit from the spillover.
Going forward we need to consider these 2 categories EB2 and EB3 together yielding a combined spillover to EB2-I and EB3-I which interns dictates the need of downward porting from EB2-I to EB3-I.

I am not a numbers guy but if your predictions are true which I think they are then it just sucks for all of us backlogged people. With May, 2011 PD, I would probably get greened in 2021 or later. Hopefully, I would have made up my mind by that time to either stay here or go back to India and would have got some mental peace. :o

[mfd1402]

Here is my take on this: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_01-12-2016.pdf

Earlier I thought FY09 EB2-I PDs will get their GCs in FY16 i.e. this year.
Now I'm thinking this may not be possible completely (not sure what happens to their Medical RFEs) and they have to wait for another year i.e. till FY17, that makes them to wait for +8 years from their PDs to realize their GC dreams.
We are not even talking about FY10 or FY11 PDs (may be their wait times will result in +9yrs or +10yrs from their PDs).
God only knows the fate of FY12 and beyond PDs (I don't want to think of anything beyond 4 years from now).

why are FY09 EB2-I PDs stuck like this?
1) ZERO spillover from EB1 and this will be continued for couple of more years in future until we see another recession.
2) Upward porting from EB3-I to EB2-I. I clearly see that there is 1500 increase in inventory between Oct15 and Jan16.
This is the reason why the USCIS is NOT honoring the filing dates proposed by DOS in the VBs from NOV'15 onwards instead it is using the final action dates. This will continue until the EB3-I catchup the EB2-I dates stopping the upward porting completely.
3) Moderate spillover from EB2-ROW to EB2-I. This will continue until the EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW demand split equally.

What makes the FY09 EB2-I PDs move forward at least next year?
The points 2 & 3 from the above question are directly or indirectly tied up with the actions happening in EB3 category.
Here is what I'm thinking that will happen: Seeing the low demand in EB3-ROW will give a huge spillover to EB3-I by this yearend, I was expecting this should be around 20k spillover for the long time now. If this happens then the EB3-I backlogs will erase till 2007 and CO will get an opportunity to open up the FY08 and FY09 for EB3-I to see that there is not much demand exists (as most of them are ported already), that is when the EB3-I will catch up with EB2-I dates, nullifying the upward porting and making way to downward porting and forward movement in EB2-I beyond FY09 PDs. So KEY here is the huge spillover from EB3-ROW to EB3-I. ( I’m still positive this will happen this year)
Alternatively, based on point 3 above, currently the ROW demand is concentrated in EB2 which should be spread across equally into EB3 once the both categories become CURRENT, which will increase the EB2-ROW spillover but might reduce the EB3-ROW spillover, in either case EB2&3-I will get benefit from the spillover.
Going forward we need to consider these 2 categories EB2 and EB3 together yielding a combined spillover to EB2-I and EB3-I which interns dictates the need of downward porting from EB2-I to EB3-I.

Thanks for the analysis , do you feel that the dates will move to Jul 2009 or Aug 2009 for EB2I in FY 2016 or is that also not possible due to the porting

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Thanks for the analysis , do you feel that the dates will move to Jul 2009 or Aug 2009 for EB2I in FY 2016 or is that also not possible due to the porting
I would be very surprised if it did. As I mentioned in my post, only porters will gobble up ALL the Visas this year.

[vishnu]

I would be very surprised if it did. As I mentioned in my post, only porters will gobble up ALL the Visas this year.

Too pessimistic in my opinion

The inventory now includes all porting up to July 2009 (sure a few may be missing but not consequential)

This was as of Jan 12 so demand where dates were moved to feb 08. Either way only
Some demand would have cleared at that point, so net increase of 1500 doesn't amount o much porting.

So we wait for spillover and just 6k takes us to June 2009.

This inventory itself doesn't provide insight on spillover - for that we rely on recent co comments that there will be some from eb1 and eb2 row.

If we close year in summer 2009, next year will be more significantly from the trends yteleven pointed out - downgrades etc. I see deep 2010 by end of next year.