EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[skpanda]

Kudos Satya.

Me and my other physician colleague signed the consent forms and emailed Greg back on Sunday evening but seems like you guys were already listed by that time on the lawsuit. This is great and it seems like people are overwhelmingly responding to this injustice. I have always felt that Indians by nature are usually risk averse and I am really feeling happy that everyone is coming together (well not everyone :) ) in this difficult time. We all are in it together and I admire your and everybody else's efforts to get justice. Lets fight this out regardless of its outcome.

May the justice prevail.

Thanks Jonty..
if you sent the consent form, then you are already a plaintiff. The lawsuit is on behalf of more than 1000 people who have been in touch with Gregg. They just needed few names to put on lawsuit. I thank you for taking the step and fighting for injustice.

Hope saner minds in DHS/DOS/USCIS back off and go back to the old VB asap.

Regards!

[Jonty Rhodes]

Thanks Jonty..
if you sent the consent form, then you are already a plaintiff. The lawsuit is on behalf of more than 1000 people who have been in touch with Gregg. They just needed few names to put on lawsuit. I thank you for taking the step and fighting for injustice.

Hope saner minds in DHS/DOS/USCIS back off and go back to the old VB asap.

Regards!

I wasn't aware of that I would be one of the plaintiffs also. That's excellent. Greg has been amazing. I had asked my attorney Michael Sherman on Friday itself about possibility of Greg Siskind filing a lawsuit and whether he would advise joining it. He had all great things to say about him. Michael told me that he and his brother Ted have spoken to Greg many times and they have always found him very honorable and kind person. Those were strong words coming from a lawyer for a fellow lawyer. So I have been spreading the word and encouraging everyone to participate in the lawsuit. I think I have asked at least 50 people to do it and I know for sure that at least 40 have signed the consent forms.

[qesehmk]

Meanwhile, if i possible, kindly send flowers to Jeh Johnson. (Secretary, DHS). I know this is a step promoted by an Organization that is not liked here, but just hoping that it will have an effect.

I have sent 5 separate flower bouquets (one each for me and my wife who are directly Affected. one for my US citizen son. 2 on behalf of my colleagues who share my pain even though they have GC already).

Satya - Doing this is just like those supersmart /extra genius ISRO rocket scientists who performed a Pooja of the Mangalyaan :)

As per the "other organization" - we do NOT dislike them. But we do not respect them either. I think they engage in Voodoo advocacy. One that has no meaningful outcome and one that is almost superstitious. US is a country where one has to earn your right. Nobody hands it out to you. Advocacy has its limitation for a number of reasons that I have spoken at length. I really hate it when ANY organization or person pretend to have insider access to DHS DOS or White house or Senate etc and then they send out breaking news that turns out dud.

The country cap is the real CRAP in immigration. Advocacy is not going to work. Only a legal fight has some chance.

[skpanda]

Satya - Doing this is just like those supersmart /extra genius ISRO rocket scientists who performed a Pooja of the Mangalyaan :)

As per the "other organization" - we do dislike them. But we do not respect them either. I think they engage in Voodoo advocacy. One that has no meaningful outcome and one that is almost superstitious. US is a country where one has to earn your right. Nobody hands it out to you. Advocacy has its limitation for a number of reasons that I have spoken at length. I really hate it when ANY organization or person pretend to have insider access to DHS DOS or White house or Senate etc and then they send out breaking news that turns out dud.

The country cap is the real CRAP in immigration. Advocacy is not going to work. Only a legal fight has some chance.

I agree with you Q. Infact I do not like/respect them either. Its been 3 years, I have visited their website or participate in any of their initiatives. But in the spirit of leaving no stone un-turned, i went ahead and did lot of things (Flowers campaign, signing petitions etc), which i know will not yield any result.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Satya. I certainly understand where you are coming from! You are a good man.
I agree with you Q. Infact I do not like/respect them either. Its been 3 years, I have visited their website or participate in any of their initiatives. But in the spirit of leaving no stone un-turned, i went ahead and did lot of things (Flowers campaign, signing petitions etc), which i know will not yield any result.

[bikenlalan]

Just now received an email from Greg,

"As you may have heard, we filed our complaint yesterday asking DOS and USCIS to revert back to the original Visa Bulletin. We are preparing to file an amended complaint tomorrow and also request a Temporary Restraining Order. We intend to include with our documents declarations from individuals harmed by the government's actions. If you are interested in helping with this effort, please download and complete the form that we have created (available here: http://www.visalaw.com/wp-content/uploads/DECLARATION.docx), sign it and email it back to me at gsiskind@visalaw.com. Please put "Declaration" in the subject line. Also, remember that your declaration will be part of a public record and if that is a problem, you should not participate. Thanks."

[Suva2001]

Does anyone know where I can see pending Perm inventory for ROW? I just want to predict future date movement for EB3.

Thanks

[tatikonda]

Want to send emails to media about this Fiasco..
here you go !

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[Spectator]

Does anyone know where I can see pending Perm inventory for ROW? I just want to predict future date movement for EB3.

ThanksBy definition, there are no figures available for pending PERM cases, other than those selected statistics (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_SelectedStatistics_FY_2015_Q3.pdf) OFLC publish quarterly. At the end of Q3 FY2015, there were 63,097 cases pending for all Countries.

The PERM figures for Certified cases up to Q3 FY2015 broken down various ways can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data).

Here's a comparison of Certified PERM for FY2014 vs FY2015 to date.

Country ------ FY2014 -- FY2015 - Increase - % Increase
CHINA --------- 4,577 --- 6,802 --- 2,225 ---- 48.6%
INDIA -------- 35,092 -- 45,416 -- 10,324 ---- 29.4%
MEXICO -------- 1,295 --- 1,475 ----- 180 ---- 13.9%
PHILIPPINES --- 1,502 --- 1,541 ------ 39 ----- 2.6%
ROW ---------- 20,167 -- 22,919 --- 2,752 ---- 13.6%

Grand Total -- 62,633 -- 78,153 -- 15,520 ---- 24.8%


Hope that helps.

[Suva2001]

By definition, there are no figures available for pending PERM cases, other than those selected statistics (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_SelectedStatistics_FY_2015_Q3.pdf) OFLC publish quarterly. At the end of Q3 FY2015, there were 63,097 cases pending for all Countries.

The PERM figures for Certified cases up to Q3 FY2015 broken down various ways can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data).

Here's a comparison of Certified PERM for FY2014 vs FY2015 to date.

Country ------ FY2014 -- FY2015 - Increase - % Increase
CHINA --------- 4,577 --- 6,802 --- 2,225 ---- 48.6%
INDIA -------- 35,092 -- 45,416 -- 10,324 ---- 29.4%
MEXICO -------- 1,295 --- 1,475 ----- 180 ---- 13.9%
PHILIPPINES --- 1,502 --- 1,541 ------ 39 ----- 2.6%
ROW ---------- 20,167 -- 22,919 --- 2,752 ---- 13.6%

Grand Total -- 62,633 -- 78,153 -- 15,520 ---- 24.8%


Hope that helps.

Spec, Please help me understand. Are you saying 78,153 is total applications in EB category for which 80,000 (EB2+Eb3) are allowed in a year? Also how many of these are in EB3? 40%?

[Spectator]

Spec, Please help me understand. Are you saying 78,153 is total applications in EB category for which 80,000 (EB2+Eb3) are allowed in a year? Also how many of these are in EB3? 40%?Suva,

The figure of 78,153 is the number of PERM Certified in FY2015 to date.

You would need to make estimates of the number of cases that will result in an EB3 I-140, the approval rate, the number of dependents at I-485 etc etc.

The number of dependents overall for EB3 has been around 1.25 in addition to the primary fairly consistently in recent years. I have no idea how that varies between Countries.

I did a rough analysis of the FY2015 PERM certifications up to Q3 based on minimum qualifications required. That gave me the following:

Group -------- EB2 --- EB3
China ------- 73.4% - 26.6%
India ------- 74.4% - 25.6%
Mexico ------ 38.9% - 61.1%
Philippines - 46.4% - 53.6%
ROW --------- 62.5% - 37.5%

Overall ----- 69.8% - 30.2%

You need to takes those figures with a pinch of salt and make your own mind up.

You'll also need to factor in those I-485 cases that do not require a PERM, such as Schedule A cases. For the most part, this is most applicable to Philippines in EB3. You also need to be aware that the 7% limit is an overall figure and that some Countries (currently Philippines) can use more than 2.8k in EB3 and still be within the overall 7% limit. There are many other factors I won't even detail.

Good luck - I don't think it is an easy calculation.

[toomuchguy]

Hi experts,
Can a full-time H1B work 40 hours in 4 days(i.e 10 hours per day and not work on Friday) ?? Does that violate any H1B/LCA norms and cause any potential issues with Green Card.
My company is a regular USA company and not based on EVC model.

Note: The fulltime H1B won't be benched or anything...just to suit his family constraints, he would work 40 hours M-Th and officially not be working on Friday.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

As far as I know there is no requirement when in a week one should work. So you should be just fine.

Also my understanding is that 36 hours per wk is considered full employment. So 40 hours sounds pretty good.


Hi experts,
Can a full-time H1B work 40 hours in 4 days(i.e 10 hours per day and not work on Friday) ?? Does that violate any H1B/LCA norms and cause any potential issues with Green Card.
My company is a regular USA company and not based on EVC model.

Note: The fulltime H1B won't be benched or anything...just to suit his family constraints, he would work 40 hours M-Th and officially not be working on Friday.

Thanks

[Suva2001]

Thanks Spec. I would try to calculate EB3-I movement on your data.

[toomuchguy]

As far as I know there is no requirement when in a week one should work. So you should be just fine.

Also my understanding is that 36 hours per wk is considered full employment. So 40 hours sounds pretty good.

Thanks appreciate your feedback

[skpanda]

Spec,
We need your help!

Do you by any chance have this information that Greg Siskind is asking? Or point me in the direction where i can find this information?

"An estimate of how many people may have potentially filed for I485 based on the Original Oct 2015 Visa Bulletin. Example, for EB2 India, The cutoff date was 1st July 2011. Last time the best date was Apr 2010. So how many people may have potentially filed for I485 going by 1st July 2011. Similar information for all other affected countries"

Appreciate your help!

Regards,
Skpanda



By definition, there are no figures available for pending PERM cases, other than those selected statistics (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_SelectedStatistics_FY_2015_Q3.pdf) OFLC publish quarterly. At the end of Q3 FY2015, there were 63,097 cases pending for all Countries.

The PERM figures for Certified cases up to Q3 FY2015 broken down various ways can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data).

Here's a comparison of Certified PERM for FY2014 vs FY2015 to date.

Country ------ FY2014 -- FY2015 - Increase - % Increase
CHINA --------- 4,577 --- 6,802 --- 2,225 ---- 48.6%
INDIA -------- 35,092 -- 45,416 -- 10,324 ---- 29.4%
MEXICO -------- 1,295 --- 1,475 ----- 180 ---- 13.9%
PHILIPPINES --- 1,502 --- 1,541 ------ 39 ----- 2.6%
ROW ---------- 20,167 -- 22,919 --- 2,752 ---- 13.6%

Grand Total -- 62,633 -- 78,153 -- 15,520 ---- 24.8%


Hope that helps.

[skpanda]

I attempted an educated guess based on historical pending inventory data:

wanted to vet it with you guyz. Please advise if i am missing anything:


Category Year Total Applications Months Average per month
EB2-I 2006 18847 12 1571
EB2-I 2007 14497 12 1208
EB2-I 2008 16027 12 1336
EB2-I 2009 14199 12 1183
EB2-I 2010 4951 4 1238
EB2-I 2006 to 2010 68521 52 1318
EB2-C 2012 2822 12 235
EB3-P 2013 820 12 68


Multiplied the above averages by number of months Benefits that Original October VB was giving.

Potential EB2 India cases between May 2010 - June 2011: 18448
Potential EB2 China cases between Jan 2014 - May 2014: 1176
Potential EB3 Phillipines cases between Oct 2014 - Dec 2014: 205

Total: 19829


Spec,
We need your help!

Do you by any chance have this information that Greg Siskind is asking? Or point me in the direction where i can find this information?

"An estimate of how many people may have potentially filed for I485 based on the Original Oct 2015 Visa Bulletin. Example, for EB2 India, The cutoff date was 1st July 2011. Last time the best date was Apr 2010. So how many people may have potentially filed for I485 going by 1st July 2011. Similar information for all other affected countries"

Appreciate your help!

Regards,
Skpanda

[mesan123]

Will it not be double the number you mentioned as 485 applications will be almost double to I-140( family members are added).
As greg also mentioned he was adding spouses of primary applicants who got affected...

Great job Spanda. Yes i also signed, sent paper work late to him as my got my lawyer confirmation late :( ( i have one of those lawyers )


I attempted an educated guess based on historical pending inventory data:

wanted to vet it with you guyz. Please advise if i am missing anything:


Category Year Total Applications Months Average per month
EB2-I 2006 18847 12 1571
EB2-I 2007 14497 12 1208
EB2-I 2008 16027 12 1336
EB2-I 2009 14199 12 1183
EB2-I 2010 4951 4 1238
EB2-I 2006 to 2010 68521 52 1318
EB2-C 2012 2822 12 235
EB3-P 2013 820 12 68


Multiplied the above averages by number of months Benefits that Original October VB was giving.

Potential EB2 India cases between May 2010 - June 2011: 18448
Potential EB2 China cases between Jan 2014 - May 2014: 1176
Potential EB3 Phillipines cases between Oct 2014 - Dec 2014: 205

Total: 19829

[skpanda]

Good Point mesan! Greg is trying to quantify the amount of money that people may have lost in this process. He has a survey data on total cost spent by each family. So he needs the number of potentially affected applicants so he can multiply that with average cost spent.

But i have informed him about the spouses and children so he knows the total number of 'people' affected. Thanks!

Anybody else, please advise if I am missing anything in my forecast? This is very time critical. I am in touch with Greg and his colleague Andrew Free as I type this. We do not want exact numbers but educated guess backed by credible data.





Will it not be double the number you mentioned as 485 applications will be almost double to I-140( family members are added).
As greg also mentioned he was adding spouses of primary applicants who got affected...

Great job Spanda. Yes i also signed, sent paper work late to him as my got my lawyer confirmation late :( ( i have one of those lawyers )

[Spectator]

Spec,
We need your help!

Do you by any chance have this information that Greg Siskind is asking? Or point me in the direction where i can find this information?

"An estimate of how many people may have potentially filed for I485 based on the Original Oct 2015 Visa Bulletin. Example, for EB2 India, The cutoff date was 1st July 2011. Last time the best date was Apr 2010. So how many people may have potentially filed for I485 going by 1st July 2011. Similar information for all other affected countries"

Appreciate your help!

Regards,
SkpandaSK,

Firstly, good luck with the lawsuit.

From the PERM data and making various allowances (which generally reduce the number), I would estimate that around 22.3k additional cases (primary and dependent) for EB2-I would have been able to file with a PD of May 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011. In addition, there could be an unquantified number of porting cases with an original EB3 PD in the affected range who have subsequently had an EB2 I-140 approved.

EB2-C has previously reached 15DEC13. The extra due to a move to 01MAY14 I would estimate to be about 2k.

EB3-P has previously reached a COD of 01OCT14 versus a filing date of 01JAN15 in the original October VB. I can't guess the effect of the gap. Many (if not most) cases do not need a PERM because they are Schedule A workers and a significant number follow the CP route.

I have no idea of the impact on the FB cases.

It's quite a long time since I have really visited this subject and the underlying assumptions, so take the figures as a best guess. That may not be good enough for the purpose you describe.

PS:- The USCIS Inventory data (which I think you used for your calculation) include dependents. It probably did not capture the true number of EB2-IC cases when the dates moved forward rapidly in FY2012, since cases were also being approved at that time.

[abcx13]

For anyone who is in touch with Siskind, can you please ask him how country caps are legal or Constitutional? They are all but discrimination written into the law. I have asked him this but he never responded. Taking on country caps will make the backlog everyone's problem and then you'll see it getting fixed.

[srimurthy]

Especially on the employment categories, as we say they are equal opportunity for all with same or similar skills.

For anyone who is in touch with Siskind, can you please ask him how country caps are legal or Constitutional? They are all but discrimination written into the law. I have asked him this but he never responded. Taking on country caps will make the backlog everyone's problem and then you'll see it getting fixed.

[jdoe99]

I am quoting one of the users on Ron Gotcher's forum who did a lot of lifting during the H4EAD process and is heavily involved now with the lawsuit process for people here who are affected and can help.


Gene Johnson from Associated Press wants to talk to people directly affected by this VB reversal. I know many of you here who are. It would be great if we can get some media coverage. Talk how this affected you. Other than the money spent, it is more about anguish, mental stress, insecurity etc.

All those affected and are willing to talk, please give him a call at 206-682-1812.

You can also tweet him at @geneAPseattle

[qesehmk]

Guys - do call this reporter GENE JOHNSON - and also tell him that these country caps are completely discriminatory.

A country of 1.2B people that is sending almost 50,000 of its brightest people here - they are subject to the same quota as senegal or nepal or cameroon. Thus resulting into extra ordinary delays for them while people from aforementioned countries are getting GCs in months. Nothing against them - but this is absolute injustice.


I am quoting one of the users on Ron Gotcher's forum who did a lot of lifting during the H4EAD process and is heavily involved now with the lawsuit process for people here who are affected and can help.

[tatikonda]

From Greg Siskand.

On a plane as I’m writing this and will arrive in Seattle close to midnight with a long night of work ahead. Andrew Free and I, along with local counsel Bob Pauw and Bob Gibbons (who are brilliant lawyers who happen to be located in Seattle), are planning on filing a request for temporary restraining order tomorrow and get a hearing later in the day. Of course, we’re very hopeful USCIS will not make it necessary to ask for this.

We have been getting sworn declarations for those harmed by this debacle and will be armed with 100s of them as well as several declarations from some of the best known immigration lawyers in America. We hope strong documentation along with solid arguments will carry the day. The feedback we received on our complaint filed yesterday was gratifying and we’re hoping sensible minds in the government will see Friday’s decision as an unnecessary disaster and will work to rectify quickly.

We’ve been trying to crunch numbers to determine how many people are affected. We’ve heard unofficial estimates of 25,000 or more, but if readers know more please let me know.

Also, we are particularly interested in hearing from people who will suffer unusually severe harm from not being able to file. In particular, if you’ve run out of time on an L-1B, if you’re not AC21 extension eligible for some reason, if you didn’t file an H-1B extension because you were relying on filing to adjust on 10/1, please let me know as well.

Will let you know more tomorrow. Wish us luck.

[bloddy1]

Guys - do call this reporter GENE JOHNSON - and also tell him that these country caps are completely discriminatory.

A country of 1.2B people that is sending almost 50,000 of its brightest people here - they are subject to the same quota as senegal or nepal or cameroon. Thus resulting into extra ordinary delays for them while people from aforementioned countries are getting GCs in months. Nothing against them - but this is absolute injustice.


Agreed, he is probably one of the few who have provided some media coverage. Worth the while to at least hit him up with some additional content.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2278e294d9aa498ea8a5b74ba28a727c/immigrants-say-about-face-visas-costs-them-millions

[feedmyback]

Lot of coverage suddenly:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2278e294d9aa498ea8a5b74ba28a727c/immigrants-say-about-face-visas-costs-them-millions

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/immigrants-face-visas-costs-millions-34155859

http://www.startribune.com/immigrants-say-about-face-on-visas-costs-them-millions/330132341/

http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/state-department-revises-october-2015-50442/

http://www.dailyprogress.com/news/national/wire/immigrants-say-about-face-on-visas-costs-them-millions/article_55dc27af-72ba-5f7e-9d2b-84adbc6a8087.html

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/30/immigrants-say-about-face-on-visas-costs-them-mill/

https://lofgren.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=397996

[immi2910]

Lot of coverage suddenly:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2278e294d9aa498ea8a5b74ba28a727c/immigrants-say-about-face-visas-costs-them-millions

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/immigrants-face-visas-costs-millions-34155859

http://www.startribune.com/immigrants-say-about-face-on-visas-costs-them-millions/330132341/

http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/state-department-revises-october-2015-50442/

http://www.dailyprogress.com/news/national/wire/immigrants-say-about-face-on-visas-costs-them-millions/article_55dc27af-72ba-5f7e-9d2b-84adbc6a8087.html

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/30/immigrants-say-about-face-on-visas-costs-them-mill/

https://lofgren.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=397996

These are all automated feeds from AP and not new reporting except from house.gov, which is a statement by the Congress Rep.

[mechanical13]

Especially on the employment categories, as we say they are equal opportunity for all with same or similar skills.

Guys, we have tried to pull together rationale to contest the constitutionality of the per country limits, but have reason to believe that the courts typically don't hear broad/overarching immigration related issues that go against congress's intent. The courts claim that congresses has 'plenary powers' that they are unwilling to contest.

If anyone has additional knowledge around how to navigate around this plenary power issue, it would be very interesting to re-kindle the initial effort.

[tatikonda]

refreshing this for last 2 hours .. nothing happening :(

https://twitter.com/gsiskind




Lot of coverage suddenly:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2278e294d9aa498ea8a5b74ba28a727c/immigrants-say-about-face-visas-costs-them-millions

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/immigrants-face-visas-costs-millions-34155859

http://www.startribune.com/immigrants-say-about-face-on-visas-costs-them-millions/330132341/

http://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/state-department-revises-october-2015-50442/

http://www.dailyprogress.com/news/national/wire/immigrants-say-about-face-on-visas-costs-them-millions/article_55dc27af-72ba-5f7e-9d2b-84adbc6a8087.html

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2015/sep/30/immigrants-say-about-face-on-visas-costs-them-mill/

https://lofgren.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=397996

[skpanda]

SK,

Firstly, good luck with the lawsuit.

From the PERM data and making various allowances (which generally reduce the number), I would estimate that around 22.3k additional cases (primary and dependent) for EB2-I would have been able to file with a PD of May 1, 2010 to June 30, 2011. In addition, there could be an unquantified number of porting cases with an original EB3 PD in the affected range who have subsequently had an EB2 I-140 approved.

EB2-C has previously reached 15DEC13. The extra due to a move to 01MAY14 I would estimate to be about 2k.

EB3-P has previously reached a COD of 01OCT14 versus a filing date of 01JAN15 in the original October VB. I can't guess the effect of the gap. Many (if not most) cases do not need a PERM because they are Schedule A workers and a significant number follow the CP route.

I have no idea of the impact on the FB cases.

It's quite a long time since I have really visited this subject and the underlying assumptions, so take the figures as a best guess. That may not be good enough for the purpose you describe.

PS:- The USCIS Inventory data (which I think you used for your calculation) include dependents. It probably did not capture the true number of EB2-IC cases when the dates moved forward rapidly in FY2012, since cases were also being approved at that time.

Thanks Spec!

[Jonty Rhodes]

Just came home and tried to check if there was any news on trackitt and it was down. Then tried Ron Gotcher's forum and that's down too. Man, people are just too anxious and trying to access in hordes. :)

Going out. Will check back sometime later. Hopefully, it would be good news.

[mesan123]

Just came home and tried to check if there was any news on trackitt and it was down. Then tried Ron Gotcher's forum and that's down too. Man, people are just too anxious and trying to access in hordes. :)

Going out. Will check back sometime later. Hopefully, it would be good news.

Sailing in the same boat mate 😕

[skpanda]

TRO filed. No hearing today. Hopefully tomorrow morning!

[Spectator]

Greg's Rundown of the Days Events

Visa Bulletin Law Suit Update – 09-30-2015
By Greg Siskind On September 30, 2015 · Add Comment

Hi folks – here is the run down of today’s developments. For the better part of today, we have been in contact with a wide range of people – other groups, people on the Hill, reporters who would tell the story of this injustice – in hopes of seeking a solution that would avoid the need for immediate intervention by a judge. Given the short time frame between now and October 1st – mere hours – we have filed a motion for a temporary restraining order to prevent the government from rejecting applications based on the second released Visa Bulletin. We have also filed an amended complaint that has some new plaintiffs and additional legal arguments.

We have been in contact with the government about our case and will continue to do so. We remain hopeful for a quick and positive outcome.

We are now awaiting a hearing with the court. We hoped for today, but we now think it will be tomorrow morning. We know people are uncertain about whether to file tonight or not and can’t give you a perfect answer to that. We don’t know what is going to happen tomorrow when those first cases are received.

In the mean time, we remind everyone that a lawsuit is just one pressure point. Please work with the advocacy organizations in their campaigns to reach out to Congress and the Administration. Rallies, flower campaigns, calls and visits to your representatives are all critical. And let people in the media know why this is so important. Today, we started to see this happening with stories in Bloomberg BNA, the Associated Press and Law360. We know more stories will be running tomorrow in other media outlets.

A special thanks is in order for Congresswoman Zoe Lofgren and Congressman Mike Honda who both issued press releases noting our lawsuit and urging USCIS to restore stability in our immigration system by honoring the commitments made in the original Visa Bulletin.

Many, many lawyers have been contributing time to helping with this. The lawyers of ABIL – the Alliance of Business Immigration Lawyers – have been fantastic. They put together several teams to help us with declarations for today’s amended complaint. Folks at AILA and AIC have been giving us helpful feedback and advice. Diane Butler’s team at Lane Powell in Seattle jumped in to help at a moment’s notice. When we needed an organization to add as a plaintiff, the IMG Taskforce, an organization that I’ve been involved with for years that advocates on behalf of physician immigrants, stepped in and is our newest named plaintiff. Sheila Hahn of Memphis helped us quickly onboard a new named plaintiff in Seattle.

And many thanks to the thousands of you out there who have been helping to crowdsource this case. When I’ve asked for case examples, you’ve provided them in droves. When I needed some quick research on a question, I’ve gotten great replies. When I’ve needed people to talk to media, you’ve stepped up. Incredible! If we haven’t used you’ve provided just yet, don’t worry. Everything you’re sending is getting read and factored in to our thinking about the solution here.

Tomorrow we’ll have an update on the hearing. After dinner I’ll post the new complaint and the TRO request.

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015/09/30/visa-bulletin-law-suit-update-09-30-2015/

[Jonty Rhodes]

This is some solid work by Greg Siskind, Cyrus Mehta and other attorneys.

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/ofsnyyff7t60crq/AABqHH2Wkjc-QYE1eU9Jz3iOa?dl=0

I am sure we have a solid case or least that's what it seems to be.

Cyrus Mehta's declaration interestingly talks about legality of dual date system and from what I understood from reading it, it seems very legal and defensible in court.

Those are some interesting declarations and Greg by putting those, has tried to cover all the aspects of this issue. Great job.

Now, hopefully the judge would agree with them also.

Please also read this.

http://blog.cyrusmehta.com/2015/09/save-children-under-new-visa-bulletin.html

[mechanical13]

TRO filed. No hearing today. Hopefully tomorrow morning!

Good luck to everyone! May justice prevail!

[tatikonda]

From Greg Twitter Account.

Oct. 1, 2015 - There may be a hearing in Seattle this morning on the motion for TRO. Meanwhile, here are links to key documents in Mehta v. DOS, No. 15cv1543, W.D. Wa.: - See more at: http://www.lexisnexis.com/legalnewsroom/immigration/b/newsheadlines/archive/2015/10/01/visagate2015-litigation-update-oct-1-2015-mehta-v-dos.aspx#sthash.fTN9OPbw.dpuf

[tatikonda]

From Greg Twitter ..

Govt being given time to respond by 4:15 today . Will keep you updated.
To be clear, no hearing until govt has had opportunity to provide written responses.

[mknop1]

I am surprised that there have not been too much discussion related to options for those that would benefit if there was a Temporary Restraining order based on Siskind's lawsuit. Would the experts advice to apply if TRO was in effect later today ? The issue at hand is that if we send the documents and then in the meanwhile, Siskind (We)lose the case, what would be the implications ? Does rejection of a 485 have any negative impact on our regular(H1B) immigration situation ?

[tatikonda]

if TRO is issued, it will be effective immediately.

if we loose, I am seeing 2 different opinions from reputed lawyers..
Murthy site recommends NOT to apply, However both Ron Gotcher and Ohm Law recommends to apply.
even Frogmen is not recomending ... so we have 2 yes and 2 no votes on it..

I think, NOT Applying is better.

[mknop1]

if TRO is issued, it will be effective immediately.

if we loose, I am seeing 2 different opinions from reputed lawyers..
Murthy site recommends NOT to apply, However both Ron Gotcher and Ohm Law recommends to apply.
even Frogmen is not recomending ... so we have 2 yes and 2 no votes on it..

I think, NOT Applying is better.

Thank you very much for the info !

[mknop1]

My relationship with the current lawyer is through the company I work for. He filed my I-140 and labor but he has been a little lukewarm in his response to 485 filing which I understand because my priority date is July 10. But he does not have my documents ready in case the TRO goes through .. With that in mind, I want to know if it is ok to file the 485 documents on my own or through a different lawyer ? What considerations should I have ? This might sound wishful thinking but I want to be prepared. Your opinions would be greatly appreciated !

[richie.rich]

Any idea, when will we hear the results on Siskind case? Tired of pressing refresh button.

[mechanical13]

My relationship with the current lawyer is through the company I work for. He filed my I-140 and labor but he has been a little lukewarm in his response to 485 filing which I understand because my priority date is July 10. But he does not have my documents ready in case the TRO goes through .. With that in mind, I want to know if it is ok to file the 485 documents on my own or through a different lawyer ? What considerations should I have ? This might sound wishful thinking but I want to be prepared. Your opinions would be greatly appreciated !

Technically, there is no need for a lawyer to file I-485. When the date became current in 2012, several people I know chose to file their I-485 by themselves. Unlike the I-140, which is 'owned' by the sponsoring company and typically requires a qualified immigration attorney, the I 485 is owned by the individual and can be self-filed.

The key is to have all the documents ready and ensure that all required documentation is provided at the time of filing.

[anuprab]

While we wait for the visagate thing to pan out, can someone please throw light on eb3 India movement in coming months. I am seeing pessimism on trackitt with couple of people expecting only 1 to 2 weeks movement each VB. I know there are many number crunchers on this forum and good at it. What is the likelihood of VB moving faster than 1 to 2 weeks. I was seeing predictions of 2005 and 2006 for Eb3 India for fy 2016... Is this too far fetched ??

[YTeleven]

Nice explanation from CO on the VB acceptance dates :
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0ZdKB-JAGi7OHJXYjNxRDVLTUdkb0pXUk5qRXdkT2M3anA4/view

[richie.rich]

Nice explanation from CO on the VB acceptance dates :
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0ZdKB-JAGi7OHJXYjNxRDVLTUdkb0pXUk5qRXdkT2M3anA4/view

Yeah. Nice way to say, "Shut up and keep suffering"!!!

[richie.rich]

Yeah. Nice way to say, "Shut up and keep suffering"!!!

Funny Part: Is Modernization of Immigration focussed on predictive analysis and allocation of resources? Looks like, it is not for immigrants.

[YTeleven]

Nice explanation from CO on the VB acceptance dates :
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0ZdKB-JAGi7OHJXYjNxRDVLTUdkb0pXUk5qRXdkT2M3anA4/view

Here is the VB reform story:

We need to understand 3 things here:

The old & new VB cut-off dates (Everyone knows these, no confusion here)

DOS' Qualifying dates, which are the previously unpublished dates internal to DOS. (Not many people know about these dates as they are internal to DOS)

The new VB acceptance date (Everyone is trying to understand what is this now and going forward)


Application Final Action Dates (Visa Cut-off Dates):


The Application Final Action Dates were called cut-off dates in prior Visa Bulletins.
The Application Final Action Dates indicate which priority dates are current for the purpose of issuing immigrant visas and approving applications for adjustment of status filed with USCIS in a particular month consistent with the cut-off dates in prior Visa Bulletins.


DOS or State's Qualifying dates and State's policy on these dates:


State's Qualifying dates are the previously unpublished dates which the Visa Office of the Department of State uses to determine when to send the Instruction Package to an immigrant visa applicant. The Instruction Package tells the applicant what documents need to be prepared for the immigrant visa application.
State establishes qualifying dates based on estimates of where the cut-off dates are likely to be in the next 8 to 12 months. These estimates allow State to efficiently process immigrant visa cases worldwide to ensure maximum usage of visa numbers, which by statute are numerically limited.
Qualifying dates are established in relation to cut-off dates, which are calculated based on the best information available at the time from both State Department and DHS sources. Infrequently, the information underlying the estimates of cut-off dates turns out to be incorrect;
Historically, when State has retrogressed (VB) cut -off dates due to the (non) availability of visas, as a matter of policy, it has not retrogressed the corresponding (State's) qualifying dates.
State has not previously retrogressed qualifying dates, as there was no purpose served in doing so, even when the (VB) cut-off dates failed to advance at the anticipated pace or they retrogressed because of higher-than-expected demand.
neither DHS nor any other agency utilized State's qualifying dates.



Dates for Filing Visa Applications (Acceptance Dates):


Dates for Filing Visa Applications that were published in the September 9,2015 Visa Bulletin were the qualifying dates State had developed for internal purposes, consistent with past practice.
Accordingly, the Dates for Filing Applications in the September 9, 2015 October 2015 Visa Bulletin, including the India and China Employment-Based Second preference (EB-2) dates, were qualifying dates that were established - based upon cut-off dates that have since retrogressed, but the corresponding qualifying dates had not been retrogressed, per State's policy.



Here is what happened in the background:


As part of the President's efforts to modernize the immigrant visa system, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requested that the Department of State (State) include in its monthly Visa Bulletin State's "qualifying dates". DHS explained to State that publishing its qualifying dates would allow DHS to use these dates at least some months to accept applications for adjustment of status. This change would also assist State by providing better control and consistency in determination of the monthly cut-off dates for IVs by providing much needed visibility of applicant demand so that state may maximize visa number use under the various annual limits.

On September 9,2015, State published the Visa Bulletin for October 2015 and included both the "Application Final Action Dates" and the "Dates for Filing Visa Applications".

Following the publication of the October 2015 Visa Bulletin on September 9, 2015, DHS requested State republish the Bulletin for October with all Dates for Filing Visa Applications retrogressed to where State anticipates the Final Action Date likely to be in 8 to 12 months. Due to the lack of retrogression of qualifying dates, DHS had determined that the dates in the Dates for Filing Visa Application charts for some preference categories did not accurately reflect visa availability for DHS's purposes of accepting adjustment applications consistent with section 245 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), 8 U.S.C. 1255.

After consultations with DHS, State published a revised Visa Bulletin for October 2015 on September 25, 2015 in which State retrogressed certain dates in the "Dates for Filing Visa Applications" chart. The "Dates for Filing Visa Application" in the revised Bulletin are where state estimated the Final Action Dates to likely be for each category in the next 8 to 12 months. This resulted in 6 of the categories of the Dates for Filing Visa Applications being changed from the September 9 version of the Bulletin, namely Mexico Family-Sponsored First Preference, Mexico Family-Sponsored Third Preference, China EB-2, India EB-2, Philippines EB-3, and Philippines Other Workers.



From above all what I could conclude is if your PD is under VB cut-off dates then you should be getting your GC in current month and if your PD is under VB acceptance-date then you should be getting your GC in 8 to 12 months timeframe.
And the acceptance dates are estimated dates based on information available to DOS at that time. This means these dates move forward as the State gets more accurate info available and also based on the spillover available.

As for as AOS applicants are considered, the only benefit they get from this VB reform is filing the AOS applications in advance of 8 to 12 months and can expect GC in that timeframe if the DOS estimations are accurate.

[Toeny9]

Need Visa demand data from Jan-March 2012. Can someone provide it ?

This is in reference to the Visagat#2015

[Toeny9]

Need Visa demand data from Jan-March 2012. Can someone provide it ?

This is in reference to the Visagat#2015

PLEASE CONTRIBUTE FOR VISA GATE 2015 FOR GREG

https://crowddefend.com/campaign/visagate2015/#

[Toeny9]

PLEASE CONTRIBUTE FOR VISA GATE 2015 FOR GREG

https://crowddefend.com/campaign/visagate2015/#

[Suva2001]

Here is the VB reform story:

We need to understand 3 things here:

The old & new VB cut-off dates (Everyone knows these, no confusion here)

DOS' Qualifying dates, which are the previously unpublished dates internal to DOS. (Not many people know about these dates as they are internal to DOS)

The new VB acceptance date (Everyone is trying to understand what is this now and going forward)


Application Final Action Dates (Visa Cut-off Dates):


The Application Final Action Dates were called cut-off dates in prior Visa Bulletins.
The Application Final Action Dates indicate which priority dates are current for the purpose of issuing immigrant visas and approving applications for adjustment of status filed with USCIS in a particular month consistent with the cut-off dates in prior Visa Bulletins.


DOS or State's Qualifying dates and State's policy on these dates:


State's Qualifying dates are the previously unpublished dates which the Visa Office of the Department of State uses to determine when to send the Instruction Package to an immigrant visa applicant. The Instruction Package tells the applicant what documents need to be prepared for the immigrant visa application.
State establishes qualifying dates based on estimates of where the cut-off dates are likely to be in the next 8 to 12 months. These estimates allow State to efficiently process immigrant visa cases worldwide to ensure maximum usage of visa numbers, which by statute are numerically limited.
Qualifying dates are established in relation to cut-off dates, which are calculated based on the best information available at the time from both State Department and DHS sources. Infrequently, the information underlying the estimates of cut-off dates turns out to be incorrect;
Historically, when State has retrogressed (VB) cut -off dates due to the (non) availability of visas, as a matter of policy, it has not retrogressed the corresponding (State's) qualifying dates.
State has not previously retrogressed qualifying dates, as there was no purpose served in doing so, even when the (VB) cut-off dates failed to advance at the anticipated pace or they retrogressed because of higher-than-expected demand.
neither DHS nor any other agency utilized State's qualifying dates.



Dates for Filing Visa Applications (Acceptance Dates):


Dates for Filing Visa Applications that were published in the September 9,2015 Visa Bulletin were the qualifying dates State had developed for internal purposes, consistent with past practice.
Accordingly, the Dates for Filing Applications in the September 9, 2015 October 2015 Visa Bulletin, including the India and China Employment-Based Second preference (EB-2) dates, were qualifying dates that were established - based upon cut-off dates that have since retrogressed, but the corresponding qualifying dates had not been retrogressed, per State's policy.



Here is what happened in the background:


As part of the President's efforts to modernize the immigrant visa system, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) requested that the Department of State (State) include in its monthly Visa Bulletin State's "qualifying dates". DHS explained to State that publishing its qualifying dates would allow DHS to use these dates at least some months to accept applications for adjustment of status. This change would also assist State by providing better control and consistency in determination of the monthly cut-off dates for IVs by providing much needed visibility of applicant demand so that state may maximize visa number use under the various annual limits.

On September 9,2015, State published the Visa Bulletin for October 2015 and included both the "Application Final Action Dates" and the "Dates for Filing Visa Applications".

Following the publication of the October 2015 Visa Bulletin on September 9, 2015, DHS requested State republish the Bulletin for October with all Dates for Filing Visa Applications retrogressed to where State anticipates the Final Action Date likely to be in 8 to 12 months. Due to the lack of retrogression of qualifying dates, DHS had determined that the dates in the Dates for Filing Visa Application charts for some preference categories did not accurately reflect visa availability for DHS's purposes of accepting adjustment applications consistent with section 245 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), 8 U.S.C. 1255.

After consultations with DHS, State published a revised Visa Bulletin for October 2015 on September 25, 2015 in which State retrogressed certain dates in the "Dates for Filing Visa Applications" chart. The "Dates for Filing Visa Application" in the revised Bulletin are where state estimated the Final Action Dates to likely be for each category in the next 8 to 12 months. This resulted in 6 of the categories of the Dates for Filing Visa Applications being changed from the September 9 version of the Bulletin, namely Mexico Family-Sponsored First Preference, Mexico Family-Sponsored Third Preference, China EB-2, India EB-2, Philippines EB-3, and Philippines Other Workers.



From above all what I could conclude is if your PD is under VB cut-off dates then you should be getting your GC in current month and if your PD is under VB acceptance-date then you should be getting your GC in 8 to 12 months timeframe.
And the acceptance dates are estimated dates based on information available to DOS at that time. This means these dates move forward as the State gets more accurate info available and also based on the spillover available.

As for as AOS applicants are considered, the only benefit they get from this VB reform is filing the AOS applications in advance of 8 to 12 months and can expect GC in that timeframe if the DOS estimations are accurate.

Thanks YTEleven for your nice explanation. You gave me lot of hope.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Just posting the link here. Can you guys spread the word regrading funding Greg and his team through crowd funding? I donated $200 and if required, will donate more. Request those to donate who are affected by this and also let friends and families know. We are really doing well on the funding aspect and have already crossed 50% mark so please chip in with whatever you can. Thanks.

https://crowddefend.com/campaign/visagate2015/

PS: Please remove this post once funding is completed.

[qesehmk]

Hey guys - while you fund the immigration lawsuit - also consider this hero from Oregon - Cris Mintz. This hero took 7 bullets while he tried to save his fellow students from the gunman at a Oregon school last week. Luckily he is alive.

https://www.gofundme.com/s75ge9y4

Also - those in S Carolina - stay dry and stay safe.

[KingofJoy]

Thanks Q for this info, donated to this cause as well.

[mesan123]

@Jhonty & everyone affected

Followed up with our local congress men office....informed me they are planning for passing bipartisan bill this week before thursday ( Let us wait and watch ...) she also mentioned that they came to know about the Lawsuit and she mentioned she along with other congressmen Immigration secretaries are working on it...she can give update by end of this week....i again re-iterated the trouble we have to go through because of this visa bulletin change, wished that congressman and his colleagues put pressure on DHS , USCIS & DOL.


So please all of you, call your congressmen and senators, if possible meet there immigration reps in local office and give details of your story( i did this early last week)......if many of us do this it will definitely have an effect

[tatikonda]

bipartisan bill in current congress is a big joke... that too on immigration :)


@Jhonty & everyone affected

Followed up with our local congress men office....informed me they are planning for passing bipartisan bill this week before thursday ( Let us wait and watch ...) she also mentioned that they came to know about the Lawsuit and she mentioned she along with other congressmen Immigration secretaries are working on it...she can give update by end of this week....i again re-iterated the trouble we have to go through because of this visa bulletin change, wished that congressman and his colleagues put pressure on DHS , USCIS & DOL.


So please all of you, call your congressmen and senators, if possible meet there immigration reps in local office and give details of your story( i did this early last week)......if many of us do this it will definitely have an effect

[mesan123]

bipartisan bill in current congress is a big joke... that too on immigration :)


Anyway i didnot ask for update on Any bills :) she mentioned it to me....so just posting the msg i heard :)

[Raj0687]

CO reply to TRO... here
(https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0ZdKB-JAGi7OHJXYjNxRDVLTUdkb0pXUk5qRXdkT2M3anA4/view?pli=1)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0ZdKB-JAGi7OHJXYjNxRDVLTUdkb0pXUk5qRXdkT2M3anA4/view?pli=1

[gcq]

CO reply to TRO... here
(https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0ZdKB-JAGi7OHJXYjNxRDVLTUdkb0pXUk5qRXdkT2M3anA4/view?pli=1)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B0ZdKB-JAGi7OHJXYjNxRDVLTUdkb0pXUk5qRXdkT2M3anA4/view?pli=1
Basically CO is saying he just followed DHS directions. Probably he will follow our directions too :-)

[imdeng]

Well said Mesan. We all have to use all tools available to build pressure - it takes only 15 mins to make the call to the local Congressperson's office. I have done so myself and would encourage others to do so as well.


@Jhonty & everyone affected

Followed up with our local congress men office....informed me they are planning for passing bipartisan bill this week before thursday ( Let us wait and watch ...) she also mentioned that they came to know about the Lawsuit and she mentioned she along with other congressmen Immigration secretaries are working on it...she can give update by end of this week....i again re-iterated the trouble we have to go through because of this visa bulletin change, wished that congressman and his colleagues put pressure on DHS , USCIS & DOL.


So please all of you, call your congressmen and senators, if possible meet there immigration reps in local office and give details of your story( i did this early last week)......if many of us do this it will definitely have an effect

[Raj0687]

Wow CO has difficult time doing his job.

How can it be so difficult for someone who is doing that job for 30 years and miss calculation? The year 2011 is kind of a closed year, all I-140 are approved by now, and there is no influx. He is not calculating the demand for year 2015 or 2014 to miss calculate.

We don't have to be a Spec or Q to understand the numbers crunch, in layman terms look at 2009 or 2010 demand, there are about 1200 applicants on avg per month and the new demand for 14 months would be around 1200*14 = 17K, it's that simple.

The biggest joke is, he want the court to ignore his mistake, so that when he continues doing mistakes in future, nobody can to question.

[gcq]

Wow CO has difficult time doing his job.

How can it be so difficult for someone who is doing that job for 30 years and miss calculation? The year 2011 is kind of a closed year, all I-140 are approved by now, and there is no influx. He is not calculating the demand for year 2015 or 2014 to miss calculate.

We don't have to be a Spec or Q to understand the numbers crunch, in layman terms look at 2009 or 2010 demand, there are about 1200 applicants on avg per month and the new demand for 14 months would be around 1200*14 = 17K, it's that simple.

The biggest joke is, he want the court to ignore his mistake, so that when he continues doing mistakes in future, nobody can to question.
And why should he take advise from anyone ( DHS ) without a supporting argument ? There is something fishy behind this. He says, DHS asked him to do so and he did without a question !

[richie.rich]

And why should he take advise from anyone ( DHS ) without a supporting argument ? There is something fishy behind this. He says, DHS asked him to do so and he did without a question !

This should be modernization of immigration and not predictive analysis. This should have been focussed on all candidates whose I-140 got approved so they can get their EADs with AP. The whole thing has changed by helping candidates who will get GC in next 8-10 months.

Also the dates went back to July 2009. How many people are going to take advantage in EB2 India? Most of the candidates with PD May 2010 already got their EAD last time.

[qesehmk]

This should have been focussed on all candidates whose I-140 got approved so they can get their EADs with AP. The whole thing has changed by helping candidates who will get GC in next 8-10 months.

Precisely! Well said.

[dec2010]

This should be modernization of immigration and not predictive analysis. This should have been focussed on all candidates whose I-140 got approved so they can get their EADs with AP. The whole thing has changed by helping candidates who will get GC in next 8-10 months.

Also the dates went back to July 2009. How many people are going to take advantage in EB2 India? Most of the candidates with PD May 2010 already got their EAD last time.

this is the part that confuses me most. since EO came out , there has been no clear indication if it was all 140 approved or sub-section of it. if it is latter, then all decision makers get to draw line in sand without challenge. in all likely hood, USCIS interpreted this as better planning/execution exercise as opposed to "immigrant friendly" policy.

ps - i know this is just rant as opposed to value add to discussion :-(

[richie.rich]

this is the part that confuses me most. since EO came out , there has been no clear indication if it was all 140 approved or sub-section of it. if it is latter, then all decision makers get to draw line in sand without challenge. in all likely hood, USCIS interpreted this as better planning/execution exercise as opposed to "immigrant friendly" policy.

ps - i know this is just rant as opposed to value add to discussion :-(

The whole idea on modernization is to make sure, people waiting in que can change their jobs and travel to and fro their home countries till they get their GC in next few years. What is the use of giving EAD to people who will get GC in next 8-10 months. Anyways, they will wait to get their GC because they will not risk leaving country to visit their families.

[dec2010]

richie.rich , there has been no official communication re 485 for 140. until Oct VB came out http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201504&RIN=1615-AC05 this was the basis to say certain (NOT ALL) population. i have not seen any uscis/gov document that states all 140 approved. ( i could be wrong / may have missed certain updates)

based on this, i find it difficult to say what was included in modernization plan. the frustration ( myself included) is stemming from perceived changes.

[Kanmani]

From Oct Visa Bulletin. Did we have any comments on this topic earlier?

D. SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TWO EMPLOYMENT VISA
CATEGORIES.

Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR): Pursuant to Section 3 of Public Law 112-176, the non-minister special immigrant program expires on September 30, 2015. No SR visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015. Visas issued prior to this date will only be issued with a validity date of September 30, 2015, and all individuals seeking admission as a non-minister special immigrant must be admitted (repeat, admitted) into the U.S. no later than midnight September 30, 2015..

Employment Fifth Preference Categories (I5 and R5): Section 1 of Public Law 112-176 extended this immigrant investor pilot program through September 30, 2015. The I5 and R5 visas may be issued until close of business on September 30, 2015, and may be issued for the full validity period. No I5 or R5 visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015..

The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as "Unavailable" for October. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2016, those cut-off dates would immediately become "Current" for October for all countries except China-mainland born I5 and R5 categories which would be subject to an October 8, 2013 cut-off date..

[CleanSock]

Not sure about EB4 but EB5 has been extended till December 11th.

http://www.murthy.com/2015/09/30/newsflash-government-shutdown-averted-eb5-extended-through-dec-11/




From Oct Visa Bulletin. Did we have any comments on this topic earlier?

D. SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TWO EMPLOYMENT VISA
CATEGORIES.

Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR): Pursuant to Section 3 of Public Law 112-176, the non-minister special immigrant program expires on September 30, 2015. No SR visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015. Visas issued prior to this date will only be issued with a validity date of September 30, 2015, and all individuals seeking admission as a non-minister special immigrant must be admitted (repeat, admitted) into the U.S. no later than midnight September 30, 2015..

Employment Fifth Preference Categories (I5 and R5): Section 1 of Public Law 112-176 extended this immigrant investor pilot program through September 30, 2015. The I5 and R5 visas may be issued until close of business on September 30, 2015, and may be issued for the full validity period. No I5 or R5 visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015..

The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as "Unavailable" for October. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2016, those cut-off dates would immediately become "Current" for October for all countries except China-mainland born I5 and R5 categories which would be subject to an October 8, 2013 cut-off date..

[skpanda]

Guyz.. on the lawsuit front: There is lot of speculation going w.r.t crowdefend, govt response etc.

We had a conference call today with our lawyers. Although due to litigation policies, I am not allowed to disclose the points discussed in the conference call, I wanted to assure friends over here that there is nothing to worry.

We are happy to be where we are right now. We are channeling all our efforts and focus in the right direction. We are hoping for the best!

[skpanda]

Also, I have contacted my local Senator's office. They have been very patient to hear me out. One of the Senator's office has asked me and others who are affected to visit their local office tomorrow in person so they can help us further. Good luck to all of us!!

Keep calling your senators and reps guyz. It takes few minutes. Its not like India etc, where we dread to contact government office. You will feel good and satisfied that you have done your part!

[qesehmk]

Also, I have contacted my local Senator's office. They have been very patient to hear me out. One of the Senator's office has asked me and others who are affected to visit their local office tomorrow in person so they can help us further. Good luck to all of us!!

Keep calling your senators and reps guyz. It takes few minutes. Its not like India etc, where we dread to contact government office. You will feel good and satisfied that you have done your part!

I totally second this. I have excellent experience with Senator John McCain in Arizona. Absolutely no harm in calling your senator or congressman. Just be polite and professional.

[mesan123]

I totally second this. I have excellent experience with Senator John McCain in Arizona. Absolutely no harm in calling your senator or congressman. Just be polite and professional.

Yes following that route....Followed up again with our Local congressmen again....they mentioned they already contacted WH & DHS on this regard and waiting for their reply.... will keep following up

[tatikonda]

I am in Kansas, I know both Senators are anti-immigration crusaders. Do you think, its worth calling them.
I know one of them put an amendment to 2013 immigration reform bill which is now dead.


Yes following that route....Followed up again with our Local congressmen again....they mentioned they already contacted WH & DHS on this regard and waiting for their reply.... will keep following up

[gcq]

I am in Kansas, I know both Senators are anti-immigration crusaders. Do you think, its worth calling them.
I know one of them put an amendment to 2013 immigration reform bill which is now dead.
I would say there is no harm in trying at least once. Who knows a carefully posed argument may cause these lawmakers to change their mind. However I recommend doing it with lot of preparation ( taking help from **) so that you don't provide fodder for them against us.

[mesan123]

I am in Kansas, I know both Senators are anti-immigration crusaders. Do you think, its worth calling them.
I know one of them put an amendment to 2013 immigration reform bill which is now dead.

Yes please try ...no harm in trying....my personal view, you try to draft your own letter and your own story and incase other people are joining you let them have their own stories...it is better to handle that way....just my point of you....i feel no need to put any other organization names in our letter...you can mention about the steps taken...

that is what i Did...yes took some flowers along with me ( to give to the immigration Secretary ...don't know if it is right or wrong , definitely makes her remember me and pick up my calls and respond back :) )

[qesehmk]

that is what i Did...yes took some flowers along with me ( to give to the immigration Secretary ...don't know if it is right or wrong , definitely makes her remember me and pick up my calls and respond back :) )
Don't remember who said it ...
"A hammer may miss its aim. A bouquet never does."

[CleanSock]

Looks like the TRO has been denied.

[vishnu]

Skpanda - I missed this post... when you say nothing to worry, this would be regarding greg siskind's lawsuit or the visa bulletin in general going forward?



Guyz.. on the lawsuit front: There is lot of speculation going w.r.t crowdefend, govt response etc.

We had a conference call today with our lawyers. Although due to litigation policies, I am not allowed to disclose the points discussed in the conference call, I wanted to assure friends over here that there is nothing to worry.

We are happy to be where we are right now. We are channeling all our efforts and focus in the right direction. We are hoping for the best!

[cool_dude]

Is it a good idea to downgrade from EB2 India May 2011 to EB3? Seems like EB3 India will move quicker than EB2 going forward?

[YTeleven]

Is it a good idea to downgrade from EB2 India May 2011 to EB3? Seems like EB3 India will move quicker than EB2 going forward?

I don't think there is any advantage to downgrade to EB3-I for EB2-I FY11 applicants.
From FY12 onwards the applications are dense and the applicants will eventually end up in downgrading to EB3 in future.
To understand the situation here is some predictions:
-----------------------------------
Year----------Expected GC timeframe
FY09----------+7years i.e FY16
FY10----------+7years i.e.FY17
FY11----------+8years i.e FY18-FY19
FY12----------+9years i.e FY20-FY21
FY13-FY15-----+10-12years. i.e FY2025
------------------------------------

[Spectator]

From Oct Visa Bulletin. Did we have any comments on this topic earlier?

D. SCHEDULED EXPIRATION OF TWO EMPLOYMENT VISA
CATEGORIES.

Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR): Pursuant to Section 3 of Public Law 112-176, the non-minister special immigrant program expires on September 30, 2015. No SR visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015. Visas issued prior to this date will only be issued with a validity date of September 30, 2015, and all individuals seeking admission as a non-minister special immigrant must be admitted (repeat, admitted) into the U.S. no later than midnight September 30, 2015..

Employment Fifth Preference Categories (I5 and R5): Section 1 of Public Law 112-176 extended this immigrant investor pilot program through September 30, 2015. The I5 and R5 visas may be issued until close of business on September 30, 2015, and may be issued for the full validity period. No I5 or R5 visas may be issued overseas, or final action taken on adjustment of status cases, after September 30, 2015..

The cut-off dates for the categories mentioned above have been listed as "Unavailable" for October. Congress is currently considering an extension of the SR, I5 and R5 visa categories, but there is no certainty when such legislative action may occur. If there is legislative action extending one or both of these categories for FY-2016, those cut-off dates would immediately become "Current" for October for all countries except China-mainland born I5 and R5 categories which would be subject to an October 8, 2013 cut-off date..


Not sure about EB4 but EB5 has been extended till December 11th.

http://www.murthy.com/2015/09/30/newsflash-government-shutdown-averted-eb5-extended-through-dec-11/I haven't been able to find anything definitive about the part of EB4 that was due to sunset either.

Even if it has expired, the Non Minister Religious Worker part of EB4 would only provide a limited number of extra visas, although every bit counts.

In FY2014, usage in the EB4 subcategory made Unavailable in the October VB was 1,119 of the EB4 total of 8,287 and in FY2013 it was 831 of the 6,446 EB4 total. That's about 13% of total EB4 use.

[jimmys]

Hi Q and others,
Since the lawsuit relief is behind us, where do you see acceptance dates moving in FY 16? Will it cover complete 2009?

[qesehmk]

Skpanda should know it better. But my understanding is that the TRO i.e. temporary restraining order is denied. The lawsuit should still be in good standing and there should be a hearing.

Am I wrong skpanda?


Hi Q and others,
Since the lawsuit relief is behind us, where do you see acceptance dates moving in FY 16? Will it cover complete 2009?

[gcq]

For TRO to be succeed, there should be a compelling reason for a restraining. In this case it is not a serious issue, but can be resolved through regular lawsuit unless the lawsuit drags on beyond an year. -- my guess

[Jonty Rhodes]

Skpanda should know it better. But my understanding is that the TRO i.e. temporary restraining order is denied. The lawsuit should still be in good standing and there should be a hearing.

Am I wrong skpanda?

I am gonna take the liberty to answer that.

TRO has been denied. The lawsuit is still in good standing. But we don't know when the hearing is going to be. It could be days, weeks or months.

Also, personally I would like to read the verdict denying TRO and the comments that judge made denying TRO.

Here is one comment that I saw from the Judge.

"It appears the Revised Visa Bulletin did not in fact substantially alter or diminish the rights of Plaintiffs and potential class members, rather it clarified an erroneous prior statement of their rights. Immigrants cannot point to any law establishing that a Visa Bulletin can create a constitutional right to due process."

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2990f3aadf964d43a7fe49ad458a00c8/us-judge-declines-undo-government-order-green-cards

So basically the judge is saying that the plaintiffs' rights were not diminished or altered with a revised bulletin but agencies just corrected a wrong date pertaining to their rights. Now, this statement was only made in reference to the motion of denial of TRO. The question that needs to be asked is whether it would have any negative impact on the actual lawsuit going forward.

We would have to see when both sides present their full arguments. TRO was a long shot to be honest and as far as I understand, it was more of a strategic move to make government respond quickly and to create more noise in media. If Greg and team would have gone for regular lawsuit without asking for TRO, Government would have taken their own sweet time to respond and everyone knows what that means. They could have asked time to study the case, time to prepare the response and God knows when they would have responded because they could have always asked for more time for more preparations. It would have been like that "Taarikh pe Taarikh" scenario without TRO request.

I would neither be optimistic nor pessimistic about this lawsuit. We just have to wait and watch how it unfolds.

[YTeleven]

Hi Q and others,
Since the lawsuit relief is behind us, where do you see acceptance dates moving in FY 16? Will it cover complete 2009?
Yes. CO believes till Q3FY09, but I believe the whole of FY09 will be cleared in FY16.

[qesehmk]

Hi Q and others,
Since the lawsuit relief is behind us, where do you see acceptance dates moving in FY 16? Will it cover complete 2009?
Based on the statements made by CO it seems they are viewing acceptance dates as dates that can possibly be cleared in next 12 months or so. Oct visa bulletin shows 1 Jul 09 as the acceptance dates for EB2I. Which means CO thinks that the maximum backlog that can be cleared by Oct 2016 for EB2I is upto 30 Jun 2009.

It is anybody's guess whether CO is being conservative or realistic.

[skpanda]

Skpanda should know it better. But my understanding is that the TRO i.e. temporary restraining order is denied. The lawsuit should still be in good standing and there should be a hearing.

Am I wrong skpanda?

Yes. TRO is denied. Lawsuit is very much there. There are lot of activities both in front and behind the scenes. We are continuing to channel our efforts to get an resolution to this issue as quickly as possible.

Objective right now is to get the Govt to provide their calculations that they used to come to the conclusion to revise the bulletin. Once they do that, it will be easy to show, how they have been rolling a dice every month for years to determine the cutoff dates.

Also, do not worry about TRO being denied. Same thing happened in July 2007 fiasco. Eventually common sense prevailed.

Satyamave Jayate (Only Truth Prevails)!!

[skpanda]

For TRO to be succeed, there should be a compelling reason for a restraining. In this case it is not a serious issue, but can be resolved through regular lawsuit unless the lawsuit drags on beyond an year. -- my guess

As mentioned in the judgement, the burden to prove irreparable harm is very high. In this case, even though there unfortunate monetary loss/stess etc, its not life and death situation. There are few families for whom it is life and death situation such as kids aging out etc. We are hoping that Government will provide them relief immediately (There is no assurance from anybody.. just a hope).

My personal situation is very serious and may have severe consequences to me and my family (if i do not file before Nov 2015).... but not sure if USCIS will consider that.

[skpanda]

Very well put!!


I am gonna take the liberty to answer that.

TRO has been denied. The lawsuit is still in good standing. But we don't know when the hearing is going to be. It could be days, weeks or months.

Also, personally I would like to read the verdict denying TRO and the comments that judge made denying TRO.

Here is one comment that I saw from the Judge.

"It appears the Revised Visa Bulletin did not in fact substantially alter or diminish the rights of Plaintiffs and potential class members, rather it clarified an erroneous prior statement of their rights. Immigrants cannot point to any law establishing that a Visa Bulletin can create a constitutional right to due process."

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2990f3aadf964d43a7fe49ad458a00c8/us-judge-declines-undo-government-order-green-cards

So basically the judge is saying that the plaintiffs' rights were not diminished or altered with a revised bulletin but agencies just corrected a wrong date pertaining to their rights. Now, this statement was only made in reference to the motion of denial of TRO. The question that needs to be asked is whether it would have any negative impact on the actual lawsuit going forward.

We would have to see when both sides present their full arguments. TRO was a long shot to be honest and as far as I understand, it was more of a strategic move to make government respond quickly and to create more noise in media. If Greg and team would have gone for regular lawsuit without asking for TRO, Government would have taken their own sweet time to respond and everyone knows what that means. They could have asked time to study the case, time to prepare the response and God knows when they would have responded because they could have always asked for more time for more preparations. It would have been like that "Taarikh pe Taarikh" scenario without TRO request.

I would neither be optimistic nor pessimistic about this lawsuit. We just have to wait and watch how it unfolds.

[Spectator]

I haven't been able to find anything definitive about the part of EB4 that was due to sunset either.

Even if it has expired, the Non Minister Religious Worker part of EB4 would only provide a limited number of extra visas, although every bit counts.

In FY2014, usage in the EB4 subcategory made Unavailable in the October VB was 1,119 of the EB4 total of 8,287 and in FY2013 it was 831 of the 6,446 EB4 total. That's about 13% of total EB4 use.From the November 2015 VB:


D. EXTENSION OF TWO EMPLOYMENT VISA CATEGORIES

An extension of both the Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR) and Employment Fifth Preference Pilot (I5 and R5) Categories was signed into law in late September. As indicated in item D of the Visa Bulletin which announced the October cut-off dates, the extension has resulted in the immediate application of the following cut-off dates for the month of October:

SR: "Current" for all countries

I5 and R5: "Current" for all countries, except China-mainland born. China-mainland born applicants are subject to an October 8, 2013 cut-off date.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-november-2015.html

[Spectator]

http://www.entrylaw.com/blog/go-ask-your-mother-dos-to-uscis


Go Ask Your Mother - DOS to USCIS

"Go ask your mother," is what Department of State has said to aspiring immigrants, referring them to USCIS to see whether the November visa bulletin will be honored or not. This is an embarassing slap in the face to the immigration agency, and exposes infighting and lack of communication between the two agencies responsible for managing the legal immigration process.

On Friday October 9, 2015, the State Department issued its November Visa Bulletin, the first after the October #Visagate2015 fiasco, and for the first time asked readers to look to the USCIS for answers as to whether the bulletin would be accepted. While the October visa bulletin stated, "USCIS has determined that this chart may be used...this month for filing applications for adjustment of status with USCIS," the November bulletin in contrast stated, "Visit http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo for information on whether USCIS has determined that this chart can be used...this month for filing applications for adjustment of status with USCIS." By sending immigrants over to USCIS, they're essentially saying, "Go ask your mother!" Don't ask us whether it is ok or not, just ask USCIS.

USCIS, in turn, has not updated its website to indicate whether the November visa bulletin will be accepted. This is embarrassing. If it was intentional, it is embarrassing, and if it was negligent, it is embarrassing. How can our government operate in such a way, when the stakes are so high? When the two agencies which oversee the orderly immigration process have decided to stop talking and coordinating, what can we come to expect? Can we rely upon the representations made, or will we be left guessing? What is Secretary of State John Kerry saying about all this, or Leon Rodriquez, the USCIS head? One can only assume that the agencies have run amok, and are leaderless, scattered and divided. That does not bode well for immigrants, their families, and the employers who rely upon them for critical support.

[jimmys]

Thanks for all your comments.

I too hope FY 2016 clears FY 2009.

[qesehmk]

http://www.entrylaw.com/blog/go-ask-your-mother-dos-to-uscis
Spec - I always thought DoS is much more in tune with EB immigration while USCIS is almost anti-immigrant.

The whole idea of accepting 485 or not based on Visa Bulletin dates is purely a discretionary policy by USCIS that can be done away with in a heartbeat. It has no basis in any law as far as I know. Correct me if I am wrong.

So USCIS is a significant reason why all the backlogged candidates are in pain.

[kd2008]

I have said this before and repeat it again: Until the undocumented get their pound of flesh, legals will never get anything substantial in their favor from this administration. It has followed this line of thinking to the tee until now. I was surprised by the H-4 EAD regulation but that is also a weak relief and helps the H-1B lobby rather than GC community. Once the primaries for presidential election begin, this administration will wind down all efforts and stop rulemaking process for I-140 EAD etc, and everything will be politically sensitive we will be told. Nothing will get done. So stop the sending money to Greg nonsense and sending flowers to DHS nonsense. It is all a waste of time. The whole thing is rigged against us and we are pawned and played around for political gain. Keep your chin up, keep renewing your H-1, file labor again and again if needed and march on with your life.

[skpanda]

Has anybody noticed the below statement in VB? You can easily guess whats going on b/w DOS and USCIS. In India, children do that... its called 'katti'.

"Visit www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo for information on whether USCIS has determined that this chart can be used (in lieu of the chart in paragraph 5.A.) this month for filing applications for adjustment of status with USCIS".

I am eagerly waiting for DOS/USCIS to release the numbers they use to determine cut off dates. I hope its not a dice that they throw for each category.

Edit: Never mind.. spec had already pointed this.

[asaxena2]

See the VB section A. It clearly shows that the broken ties between USCIS & DOS after the Oct15 fiasco.
DOS has published the acceptance dates but they are asking to go to USCIS website to actually use those dates and file the 485.
The language looks like unless USCIS authorizes those dates in their website then only one should use the acceptance dates:
--------------
Unless otherwise indicated on the USCIS website at www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo, individuals seeking to file applications for adjustment of status with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) in the Department of Homeland Security must use the “Application Final Action Dates” charts below for determining when they can file such applications. When USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for the fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas, USCIS will state on its website that applicants may instead use the "Dates for Filing Visa Applications" charts in this Bulletin.
--------------

Are you still sure about your eb2 and eb 3 predictions for 2016 ?

[Ramsen]

Spec - I always thought DoS is much more in tune with EB immigration while USCIS is almost anti-immigrant.

The whole idea of accepting 485 or not based on Visa Bulletin dates is purely a discretionary policy by USCIS that can be done away with in a heartbeat. It has no basis in any law as far as I know. Correct me if I am wrong.

So USCIS is a significant reason why all the backlogged candidates are in pain.

When there is not enough demand to process the GC then DOS/USCIS can make all the categories current theoretically. But in practical that is not feasible. I would tell one example.For Eb2-I I think they moved up to 2010 April. That means persons with EB2 are processed with finger print and other process and waiting just for visa numbers. So when visa number is availablethey are going to get GC within a few months and some times as early as a few weeks as all of the other processing was completed including FP and medicals. So till PD of April 2010 it willmove slowly. For example when PD April 2010 hits then at that time no one will be available to process. So DOS/USCIS do not have a demand and they can move the date very fast similar to 2012 or 2007The movement will happen until enough persons are done with FP and medicals. So PD could move fast for 3 to 6 months. In that case there might be 300k persons could file I485. But that is a scenariowill play out once in 5 years. That does not mean that they have to move PD arbitarily to give EAD to many thousands. Regarding the October VB they could have moved AD for 2009 on Sept 9th itself.But they might have made a mistake (I am sure many were upset because just they showed the cake and then got back. Instead they would not have give the cake) by time pressure and later they might have realized. We cannot say whether they are correct by legally( That will be decided by court in a few months). But it was very big mistake and thousands were impacted emotionally

[Spectator]

I just noticed a small change to the USCIS Filing dates page http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Earlier today, it said:


Note: The Department of State (DOS) normally posts the new Visa Bulletin the second week of the month before it will take effect. The DOS Visa Bulletin is the official source of these charts. For ease of reference, below is the current chart (posted within two days of DOS’ new Visa Bulletin).

Currently you can check that for yourself by looking at the cached page http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-OlVfBNWHw8J:www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us (that will change over time)

Even though USCIS have not yet updated the figures to the November ones, sometime today, that section was changed to:


Note: The Department of State (DOS) normally posts the new Visa Bulletin the second week of the month before it will take effect. The DOS Visa Bulletin is the official source of these charts. For ease of reference, below is the current chart (posted within two days of DOS’ new Visa Bulletin).

USCIS will determine which chart is effective for the following month approximately one week after DOS publishes the Visa Bulletin and we will post that chart on this page.

It appears they forgot to take out the previous reference to two days.

Sneaky [redacted comment]!!!

[asaxena2]

EB 3 AN EB 2 PREDICTIONS for 2016 .How good they are after this visa bulletin?

[gcvijay]

I just noticed a small change to the USCIS Filing dates page http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Earlier today, it said:



Currently you can check that for yourself by looking at the cached page http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:-OlVfBNWHw8J:www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us (that will change over time)

Even though USCIS have not yet updated the figures to the November ones, sometime today, that section was changed to:



It appears they forgot to take out the previous reference to two days.

Sneaky [redacted comment]!!!




Does this mean CO will move the Filing Dates for EB2 China and INDIA and republish the VISA bulletin? This shows a clear politics of fight b\w Govt Agencies.

[Spectator]

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015/10/09/one-theory-explaining-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.

[Spectator]

Does this mean CO will move the Filing Dates for EB2 China and INDIA and republish the VISA bulletin? This shows a clear politics of fight b\w Govt Agencies.gcvijay,

No, it means AOS applicants won't know whether they can use the Filing Date for up to a week after the VB is published because only USCIS can provide that information.

[mesan123]

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015/10/09/one-theory-explaining-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.

Spec, no one would get it wrong, people like you should enlighten us if you understand what that means... Well damage already done to us by USCIS ... So please go ahead nd explain us... Even if it is harsh truth..:)

[qesehmk]

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015/10/09/one-theory-explaining-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.
Why would you get into trouble Spec. Greg is calculating demand upto Jun 2011 correctly. But I have no idea where he is getting the idea that in 2016 almost 30K visas are going to be available for EB2IC !!

Either he is confusing something or we are missing something huge. Did family under utilize by 30-50K this year?


Our own number crunching Visa Bulletin wonk has come up with a number just over 29,000 as the number of EB-2 India and EB-2 China numbers that will be available in Fiscal Year 2016

[Spectator]

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015/10/09/one-theory-explaining-visagate/

I'm not going to comment because I think I'll get into a lot of trouble if I do so.
Why would you get into trouble Spec. Greg is calculating demand upto Jun 2011 correctly. But I have no idea where he is getting the idea that in 2016 almost 30K visas are going to be available for EB2IC !!

Either he doesn't know what he is talking about. Or we are missing something huge. Did family under utilize by 30-50K this year?


Our own number crunching Visa Bulletin wonk has come up with a number just over 29,000 as the number of EB-2 India and EB-2 China numbers that will be available in Fiscal Year 2016Q,

I'll sleep on it. I wrote a post, but I don't hold back. I don't really like to completely trash an opinion in that way. I quite like Greg and appreciate what he has done. Win or lose, it had to be done and even a loss accomplishes something significant.

You have mentioned most of the important points. Clearly you don't believe 29k for EB2-IC is remotely possible either.

29k for EB2-IC in FY2016 implies around 26k SOFAD for EB2-I, which implies 23k SO.

To reach that level, I think it would require in excess of 25k extra visas from FB assuming EB2-I have access to all the FB visas allotted to EB1, EB2, EB4 and EB5 (28.6% are allotted to EB3 and unavailable to EB2).

That would be a complete failure on CO's part in FY2015 - especially since the majority of FB use Consular Processing which is completely controlled by DOS.

When asked by USCIS to calculate the COD that EB2-I might reach in FY2016 (12 months), he stated 01JUL09. That must include his best estimate for SO, since 2.8k approvals could not possibly reach that date.

By this time, CO should have a pretty good idea of the FB use in FY2015 and therefore how many extra visas might be available to EB in FY2016. At the very least, he would know the usage up to August 11, 2015. That's stated in the September 2015 VB and he would need that information to set the September 2015 VB COD for FB. The FB COD were advanced slightly more for FB1 and FB2A than normal in the September 2015 VB, but not enough to suggest that approvals were so significantly short of the preference limit for FB.

That strongly hints that the number of FB visas available to EB in FY2016 are quite low, or I am mistaken in thinking he has any idea of the number yet. If he doesn't have any idea yet, which I think is unlikely, he can't assume any number from FB when calculating the likely date. Nor should Greg's "numbers man" without explicitly stating it.

PS:- I think his estimate of demand up to 01JUL11 for EB2-I is quite low.

[qesehmk]

I don't really like to completely trash an opinion in that way. I quite like Greg and appreciate what he has done. Win or lose, it had to be done and even a loss accomplishes something significant.
I really didn't mean to trash his opinion but my words indeed came across that way. I do appreciate what he has done. We are on the same page that win-or-lose he and his plaintiffs did something immensely meaningful. I also think CO is trying to do his part.

Anyway ... so as per the numbers yes - I don't see a path to Jun 2011 for EB2I. There is one more probability - I wonder if CO is going to implement the suggestion to NOT count dependents. If implemented that has the potential to simply clear most if not all backlog in EB.

[Spectator]

I really didn't mean to trash his opinion but my words indeed came across that way. I do appreciate what he has done. We are on the same page that win-or-lose he and his plaintiffs did something immensely meaningful. I also think CO is trying to do his part.

Anyway ... so as per the numbers yes - I don't see a path to Jun 2011 for EB2I. There is one more probability - I wonder if CO is going to implement the suggestion to NOT count dependents. If implemented that has the potential to simply clear most if not all backlog in EB.Q,

I was referring to my (unpublished) analysis.

I don't think you were trashing him at all. It was quite considered.

[YTeleven]

Are you still sure about your eb2 and eb 3 predictions for 2016 ?
From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=56028#post56028

[asaxena2]

From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=56028#post56028

Thanks YTEleven

[delguy]

From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=56028#post56028


Hi YT, When do you think June 2010 could be current? I am so frustrated by missing it twice so close :(

[YTeleven]

Hi YT, When do you think June 2010 could be current? I am so frustrated by missing it twice so close :(

The answer is already in there in my previous posts, its FY17.
Here is more explanation to it:
Policies have changed post 25-Sep-2015. Now CO can't move dates to build inventory as he did in 2012 that's when you missed your first opportunity for filing EAD.
This is evident from how he corrected the VB on 25-Sep-2015 that is when you missed your second opportunity.
It seems CO is allowed to move the dates only for those applicants who can get their GC in next 8 to 12 months time frame.
This is the new initiative from DHS under the VISA modernization of VB, the benefit of filing the EAD earlier(8 to 12 months earlier than expected GC timeframe)
So, I believe if CO/USCIS correctly estimates then you should be able to file your EAD in Jul'16 and can safely expect your GC in 8-12 months from that filing date i.e. in FY17 quota.
Now, question is can EB2-I get that much spillover. Yes. I believe it so. We will get more clarity on this as more data pointers gets released in future.

[4WatItsWorth]

From my side no changes to my earlier predictions both for EB2-I & EB3-I.
Here I said what we can expect in next 18 months: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=56028#post56028that post talks about inventory build up etc. Not sure how true that is anymore? My PD is 30Oct2009 EB2-I. In light of new 2-date process, not sure when I should expect to get current to file AoS and eventually get GC. What is your estimate for this date?

Tired of being on stangnant immi life now.

[delguy]

Thanks YT, I will be happy with just getting EAD than the actual GC. Waiting with EAD in hand is less of pain than doing that on H1.


The answer is already in there in my previous posts, its FY17.
Here is more explanation to it:
Policies have changed post 25-Sep-2015. Now CO can't move dates to build inventory as he did in 2012 that's when you missed your first opportunity for filing EAD.
This is evident from how he corrected the VB on 25-Sep-2015 that is when you missed your second opportunity.
It seems CO is allowed to move the dates only for those applicants who can get their GC in next 8 to 12 months time frame.
This is the new initiative from DHS under the VISA modernization of VB, the benefit of filing the EAD earlier(8 to 12 months earlier than expected GC timeframe)
So, I believe if CO/USCIS correctly estimates then you should be able to file your EAD in Jul'16 and can safely expect your GC in 8-12 months from that filing date i.e. in FY17 quota.
Now, question is can EB2-I get that much spillover. Yes. I believe it so. We will get more clarity on this as more data pointers gets released in future.

[harapatha]

The answer is already in there in my previous posts, its FY17.
Here is more explanation to it:
Policies have changed post 25-Sep-2015. Now CO can't move dates to build inventory as he did in 2012 that's when you missed your first opportunity for filing EAD.
This is evident from how he corrected the VB on 25-Sep-2015 that is when you missed your second opportunity.
It seems CO is allowed to move the dates only for those applicants who can get their GC in next 8 to 12 months time frame.
This is the new initiative from DHS under the VISA modernization of VB, the benefit of filing the EAD earlier(8 to 12 months earlier than expected GC timeframe)
So, I believe if CO/USCIS correctly estimates then you should be able to file your EAD in Jul'16 and can safely expect your GC in 8-12 months from that filing date i.e. in FY17 quota.
Now, question is can EB2-I get that much spillover. Yes. I believe it so. We will get more clarity on this as more data pointers gets released in future.

Thanks YT. I am EB3I Jul 09. Hopefully, I can file for AOS during CY 16 based on your forecast. Glad to know that you are still sticking to your forecast, even after the recent fiasco..

[GCwaiting]

Thanks a lot YT.

I am new to this forum. Your explanation and analysis of EB3 I was really good.
My date is 23 Mar 2005 (EB3 I).
Do you still think I should be current in May 2016 ?

[srimurthy]

From OH Law Firm.... Looks like we are going to get USCIS to post dates from Nov. What Spec highlighted earlier...

**************
10/14/2015: Effective November 2015, USCIS Will Post Separate I-485 Filing Availability Date, Separate from State Department Visa Bulletin
•USCIS announces that beginning with the November 2015 Department of State (DOS) Visa Bulletin, if USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for a fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas, USCIS will state on www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo that applicants may use the Dates for Filing Visa Applications chart. Unless otherwise stated on our website, the Application Final Action Date chart will be used to determine when individuals may file their adjustment of status applications. USCIS anticipates making this determination each month and posting the relevant chart on our website within one week of DOS' publication of the Visa Bulletin. USCIS November 2015 Chart has yet to be released.
•What does it mean? When it comes to filing of I-485 applications based on the "Filing Available" track cut-off date in each Visa Bulletin, I-485 should not rely on the monthly Visa Bulletin. They should rely on the USCIS separate posting of the USCIS chart for availability of filing track acceptance cut-off dates for the purpose of the USCIS each month. The dates can be either same or different from the Visa Bulletin Filing Acceptance chart.
•
*********


Thanks a lot YT.

I am new to this forum. Your explanation and analysis of EB3 I was really good.
My date is 23 Mar 2005 (EB3 I).
Do you still think I should be current in May 2016 ?

[Spectator]

I just noticed a small change to the USCIS Filing dates page http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

.......USCIS have now published a further statement under NEWS on their website http://www.uscis.gov/news/updated-instruction-using-dos-visa-bulletin



Updated Instruction for Using the DOS Visa Bulletin

Beginning with the November 2015 Department of State (DOS) Visa Bulletin, if USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for a fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas, we will state on www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo that applicants may use the Dates for Filing Visa Applications chart. Unless otherwise stated on our website, the Application Final Action Date chart will be used to determine when individuals may file their adjustment of status applications.

We anticipate making this determination each month and posting the relevant chart on our website within one week of DOS’ publication of the Visa Bulletin.

About the Visa Bulletin

DOS publishes current immigrant visa availability information in a monthly Visa Bulletin. The Visa Bulletin indicates when statutorily limited visas are available to prospective immigrants based on their individual priority date.


The priority date is generally the date when the applicant’s relative or employer properly filed the immigrant visa petition on the applicant’s behalf with USCIS. If a labor certification is required to be filed with the applicant’s immigrant visa petition, then the priority date is when the labor certification application was accepted for processing by Department of Labor.
Availability of an immigrant visa means eligible applicants are able to take one of the final steps in the process of becoming U.S. permanent residents.


Learn more about adjustment of status and the Visa Bulletin on our website.

Last Reviewed/Updated: 10/14/2015

USCIS have still not updated their page to reflect the November VB.

[srimurthy]

Unless otherwise stated on our website, the Application Final Action Date chart will be used to determine when individuals may file their adjustment of status applications..

Does the above statement mean incase they don't publish that they will consider the "Action Date Chart" for filing which can mean rollback or unavailable for India and China in EB2 / EB3? Is it introducing more complexity than making it simpler to ensure they can mess up anyway they want?

[Spectator]

Does the above statement mean in case they don't publish that they will consider the "Action Date Chart" for filing which can mean rollback or unavailable for India and China in EB2 / EB3? Is it introducing more complexity than making it simpler to ensure they can mess up anyway they want?It means that USCIS have two choices (and only two choices).

a) The Filing Dates published in the VB are for CP cases and relate to sending documentation to NVC.

USCIS can choose to also use the Filing Dates Chart in the VB to accept the AOS cases i.e allow an I-485 to be filed. They will do so IF:


USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for a fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas

If that is the case, they will show the same Filing Chart as the VB on their website at http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Otherwise,

b) USCIS can determine the Final Action Chart in the VB will also apply for the ability to file an I-485.

These are the only two choices available to USCIS. USCIS cannot independently publish a different Filing Date Chart on their website from that published in the VB.

This is no different to the situation when the original October VB was published. The only subtle difference, which may be noteworthy, is that USCIS have used the phrase


more immigrant visas available for a fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas

rather than within the next 8-12 months.

[CleanSock]

But how can they determine whether more visas are available this fiscal year so early in the year? They couldn't do it so far and DoS had to resort to some calculation to determine it only in the 4th quarter. USCIS saying this so early on in the year doesn't smell right to me.


It means that USCIS have two choices (and only two choices).

a) The Filing Dates published in the VB are for CP cases and relate to sending documentation to NVC.

USCIS can choose to also use the Filing Dates Chart in the VB to accept the AOS cases i.e allow an I-485 to be filed. They will do so IF:



If that is the case, they will show the same Filing Chart as the VB on their website at http://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Otherwise,

b) USCIS can determine the Final Action Chart in the VB will also apply for the ability to file an I-485.

These are the only two choices available to USCIS. USCIS cannot independently publish a different Filing Date Chart on their website from that published in the VB.

This is no different to the situation when the original October VB was published. The only subtle difference, which may be noteworthy, is that USCIS have used the phrase



rather than within the next 8-12 months.

[YTeleven]

I see its more of streamlined and saves CO from any lawsuits in future and he can use his age old "qualifying dates" to determine who are qualified for getting ready with their documents for submitting to NVC.
Now USCIS needs to publish their own VB(www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo) as how all consular posts abroad publish their own VBs based on CO's VB.
Yes. USCIS might use CO's qualifying dates as acceptance dates or any date which is lesser than CO's acceptance dates and greater than or equal to CO's final action dates, definitely NOT greater than CO's Acceptance dates.
Also, see this: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=56612#post56612

[qesehmk]

Here are my 2 cents..

I think DoS overreached its mandate in publishing Application dates vs Final Action dates. Accepting a 485 application or not was USCIS' prerogative. So they are not going to let that go. DoS if it was really so pro immigrants should've repeated Jul 2007 again! USCIS couldn't have challenged that.

What baffles me is that USCIS and DoS both fall under the same administration and yet one is so defiant on the executive order. Can't fathom how can they get away with this!

[gcq]

Here are my 2 cents..

I think DoS overreached its mandate in publishing Application dates vs Final Action dates. Accepting a 485 application or not was USCIS' prerogative. So they are not going to let that go. DoS if it was really so pro immigrants should've repeated Jul 2007 again! USCIS couldn't have challenged that.

What baffles me is that USCIS and DoS both fall under the same administration and yet one is so defiant on the executive order. Can't fathom how can they get away with this!

Why would USCIS accept a 2007 like situation whereas it need not accept the current situation ?

[smuggymba]

Here are my 2 cents..

I think DoS overreached its mandate in publishing Application dates vs Final Action dates. Accepting a 485 application or not was USCIS' prerogative. So they are not going to let that go. DoS if it was really so pro immigrants should've repeated Jul 2007 again! USCIS couldn't have challenged that.

What baffles me is that USCIS and DoS both fall under the same administration and yet one is so defiant on the executive order. Can't fathom how can they get away with this!

Janet Napolitano/Rand Beers are part of DHS and were appointed by POTUS. The USCIS director was confirmed by the senate....doesn't USCIS that fall under POTUS's ambit?

Why is USCIS going over board to undermine Obama?

[qesehmk]

Why would USCIS accept a 2007 like situation whereas it need not accept the current situation ?
Because then USCIS wouldn't have a choice. Setting final action date is DoS' prerogative (I don't know the basis for it - but apparently it is).

So USCIS would be forced to accept applications whether they like it or not.

[qesehmk]

Why is USCIS going over board to undermine Obama?

That's what I am puzzled about. And makes me wonder if they really are .....??

[smuggymba]

That's what I am puzzled about. And makes me wonder if they really are .....??

Obama administration went above and beyond their capacity to help us legal immigrants with all the EO's. See all the flak he got for it.

Now, why is USCIS going completely against him is puzzling. Also, I don't think we will have a republican president any time soon, so it's not like USCIS is just waiting out Obama's last year.

[Spectator]

Here are my 2 cents..

I think DoS overreached its mandate in publishing Application dates vs Final Action dates. Accepting a 485 application or not was USCIS' prerogative. So they are not going to let that go. DoS if it was really so pro immigrants should've repeated Jul 2007 again! USCIS couldn't have challenged that.

What baffles me is that USCIS and DoS both fall under the same administration and yet one is so defiant on the executive order. Can't fathom how can they get away with this!Q,

I agree that the Filing Dates published in the original October VB for use by CP applicants was an overreach to be used for AOS filings. I further agree that it is USCIS decision whether to accept them or not for use by AOS applicants.

I'm not sure whether CO hoped to get one over on USCIS and give a last hurrah to EB2-I, or whether it was his sheer laziness in never retrogressing the internal dates, even when they had not been reflecting the situation since 2012.

Either way it doesn't matter, USCIS should not have accepted the filing dates for AOS. Instead, they should have said that they couldn't use the October Dates and please correct them to ones we can use in the November VB.

However, the original October VB makes it clear that the Filing Dates are for NVC and USCIS have to agree if they can be used for AOS applicants. DOS are not forcing the acceptance of the Filing Dates by USCIS (although admittedly the only alternative is to use the Final Action Dates instead).


The chart below reflects dates for filing visa applications within a timeframe justifying immediate action in the application process.
Applicants for immigrant visas who have a priority date earlier than the cutoff date in the chart may assemble and submit required documents to the Department of State’s National Visa Center, following receipt of notification from the National Visa Center containing detailed instructions.

and


Unless otherwise indicated in this bulletin, individuals seeking to file applications for adjustment of status with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) in the Department of Homeland Security must use the “Application Final Action Dates” charts below for determining when they can file such applications. This bulletin may indicate the ability for such individuals to instead use the “Dates for Filing Visa Applications” charts, when USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for the fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas. Applicants for adjustment of status may refer to USCIS for additional information by visiting www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo.

The original October VB also makes it clear that USCIS had agreed that the Filing Date Chart could be used by AOS applicants.

Under the B. DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT BASED VISA APPLICATIONS it clearly states:


USCIS has determined that this chart may be used (in lieu of the chart in paragraph 5.A.) this month for filing applications for adjustment of status with USCIS. Applicants for adjustment of status may visit www.USCIS.gov/visabulletininfo for additional information.

As to your last point, blood is thicker than water. USCIS (previously INS) and now part of DHS has been at war over the allocation of visas since the system was set up. Both the INS and DOS believed they should be in charge of the visa allocation process. Congress decided DOS should be so and the other side has never forgiven that decision. The now USCIS has made it their mission in life to make the DOS job as difficult as possible. The culmination was the events of July 2007, which probably didn't help matters. What's happening now is just another small chapter in the sorry saga. Both sides are culpable, but USCIS the greater offenders and is an organization that is not fit for purpose. The last thing DOS will allow is for USCIS to get greater power over the visa allocation process (thankfully). That's why there is no wiggle room for USCIS to set their own Filing Dates for AOS.

[qesehmk]

As to your last point, blood is thicker than water. USCIS (previously INS) and now part of DHS has been at war over the allocation of visas since the system was set up. Both the INS and DOS believed they should be in charge of the visa allocation process. Congress decided DOS should be so and the other side has never forgiven that decision. The now USCIS has made it their mission in life to make the DOS job as difficult as possible. The culmination was the events of July 2007, which probably didn't help matters. What's happening now is just another small chapter in the sorry saga. Both sides are culpable, but USCIS the greater offenders and is an organization that is not fit for purpose. The last thing DOS will allow is for USCIS to get greater power over the visa allocation process (thankfully). That's why there is no wiggle room for USCIS to set their own Filing Dates for AOS.
Well said Spec. Thanks. This also is a sad commentary on how unimportant the plight of backlogged candidates is. People who believe in advocacy and all should read this and they may understand that there are bigger things at play here and advocacy to work we must understand history and motivations of the other side.

[gcq]

For a glimpse of USCIS's anti-immigrant stance, please read this link. USCIS union had opposed CIR since it won't let them harass immigrants. No wonder H1B applicants has to undergo suffering under USCIS. CBP is not free of these anti-immigrant officers either. Remember the time many H1B candidates were sent back from EWR airport.

http://www.cafeconlecherepublicans.com/uscis-unions-complaint-about-reform-is-unclear/

[gcq]

Because then USCIS wouldn't have a choice. Setting final action date is DoS' prerogative (I don't know the basis for it - but apparently it is).

So USCIS would be forced to accept applications whether they like it or not.

Visas are used by DOS as well as USICS. So one of the agencies had to control visa flow. DOS was the better agency IMO as it has consulates all across the world. So administration decided, let DOS do it. As for acceptance date USCIS didn't like it because DOS was dictating to them or they didn't like letting H1B candidates convert to AOS, or they were not happy they have to process so many EAD-AP applications without a fee. -- my speculations !

[Raj0687]

Correct me if I am wrong, The filing fee for Form I-765 is $380. How come EAD processing free?

[smuggymba]

Correct me if I am wrong, The filing fee for Form I-765 is $380. How come EAD processing free?

For application after 2007 I believe (including me), EAD and AP are free of cost. I just pay 500 to the lawyer but nothing to the USCIS.

applicants prior to 2007 have to pay USCIS a fee for EAD/AP renewal.

[YTeleven]

All Who have approved 1-140 and waiting to file I-485,
Please sign this NEW white house petition : http://wh.gov/iP7z2, https://petitions.whitehouse.gov//petition/allow-filing-i-765-ead-and-i-131-ap-upon-i-140-approval-12
I know there are around 100k+ who is waiting to file I-485.
Please help yourself by signing this petition and promoting it to your known circles.
We need to get the 100k+ signs in next 30 days so that it will get noticed by the President Obama to take an action on it.

Also convey to our OPT friends to help themselves as they will get into this mess once they completes their OPT period.

[srimurthy]

Not sure about the renewal (did not reach that stage yet :) , but the first time filing fee is $380. I just did that for H4 EAD.

For application after 2007 I believe (including me), EAD and AP are free of cost. I just pay 500 to the lawyer but nothing to the USCIS.

applicants prior to 2007 have to pay USCIS a fee for EAD/AP renewal.

[tatikonda]

Signed !! but not having any hopes :(


All Who have approved 1-140 and waiting to file I-485,
Please sign this NEW white house petition : http://wh.gov/iP7z2, https://petitions.whitehouse.gov//petition/allow-filing-i-765-ead-and-i-131-ap-upon-i-140-approval-12
I know there are around 100k+ who is waiting to file I-485.
Please help yourself by signing this petition and promoting it to your known circles.
We need to get the 100k+ signs in next 30 days so that it will get noticed by the President Obama to take an action on it.

Also convey to our OPT friends to help themselves as they will get into this mess once they completes their OPT period.

[tatikonda]

Q/Spec and other Gurus,

Pardon my ignorance but what is USCIS going to loose by agreeing to file AOS ?
I see that, this will generate good revenue for them, which will help them to budget next year and implement new projects.
this is a clear win for USCIS unless top leaders in USCIS have some malign intent on immigrants.



Well said Spec. Thanks. This also is a sad commentary on how unimportant the plight of backlogged candidates is. People who believe in advocacy and all should read this and they may understand that there are bigger things at play here and advocacy to work we must understand history and motivations of the other side.

[bluelabel]

Not sure about the renewal (did not reach that stage yet :) , but the first time filing fee is $380. I just did that for H4 EAD.

EAD/AP are free only if filed along with I-485 or there's a pending I-485 application with USCIS filed after 2007 August. H4 EAD and L2 EAD do not come free.

[Spectator]

Not sure about the renewal (did not reach that stage yet :) , but the first time filing fee is $380. I just did that for H4 EAD.An EAD for the spouse of an H-1B Nonimmiggrant (H4 EAD) is applied for under (c)(26). There is no fee waiver for that category. The initial EAD and any renewals require the fee to be paid.

An EAD based on a pending I-485 is applied for under (c)(9). Applicants applying for one do not need to pay a fee for either the initial EAD or subsequent renewals, as long as their I-485 was applied for under the higher fee structure that came into effect with the August 2007 VB. The application must be made by mail and if not concurrently filed with the I-485, a copy of the I-797C receipt for the I-485 application must be enclosed.

From the I-765 Instructions http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/form/i-765instr.pdf (pages 9-10)


NOTE: If you filed Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, as of July 30, 2007, and you paid the Form I-485 filing fee, no fee is required to also file a request for employment authorization on Form I-765. You may file the Form I-765 with your Form I-485, or you may submit the Form I-765 at a later date. If you file Form I-765 separately, you must also submit a copy of your Form I-797C, Notice of Action, receipt as evidence of the filing of Form I-485 as of July 30, 2007.

and


Renewal EAD. If this is a renewal application and you are applying under one of the following categories, a filing fee is not required:

1. (a)(8) Citizen of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, or Palau;

2. (a)(10) Granted Withholding of Deportation;

3. (c)(l), (c)(4), or (c)(7) Dependent of certain foreign government, international organization, or NATO personnel;

4. (c)(9) or (c)(16) Adjustment applicant who applied after July 30, 2007.

The reference to July 30, 2007 can be a bit confusing due to the July 2007 VB events. Eventually, people current under the July 2007 VB were able to file up to August 17, 2007 under the old lower fee system. Those people are not eligible for the fee waiver. That's why I describe it as those eligible to file in the August 2007 VB or later.

[qesehmk]

..unless top leaders in USCIS have some malign intent on immigrants.
All immigrants - black / white / brown / yellow - always face resistance initially and get assimilated over time. True about italians / irish / jews ... and now about Asians.

What has compounded the problem for Asians is globalization of white collar jobs. In the 60s and 70s when blue collar jobs left - nobody noticed or cried about it in the media because that didn't hurt the middle class. But in the 90s and last decade white collar jobs have left which started hurting a class that had some power. For instance - my ex-manager - a white guy - decent fellow - said this to my face that his brother in law lost his job to outsourcing and now I have to hire YOU on H1. I insist - the fellow was a decent guy - I was initially mad at him but over time was able to let go and even like him - an MIT fellow - it was nice to discuss many things with him.

The point is - it is not just "Top Leaders" nor they have to be EVIL to oppose outsourcing and immigrants. Just plain human nature.

Organizations develop culture over time. You have to understand DoS culture. They shit all over the world. No kidding - and they know it. And hence they are tolerant and wise towards immigration policy. They like immigrants - not for altruistic reasons but at times practical reasons and at times out of personal experience.

Now think about USCIS - these are mostly old white people in their 60s who probably never left the proverbial "scranton". How do you expect them to perceive you coming over here?

p.s. - When I got my first H1 stamped in Mumbai - the American guy behind the window was probably from Michigan and asked me how was Michigan weather. His face lit up for a moment when I talked about Michigan. I feel a pain when I hear about Australia - the first abroad trip ever. USCIS is missing that. They are stuck in fear.

[tatikonda]

thank you Q.


All immigrants - black / white / brown / yellow - always face resistance initially and get assimilated over time. True about italians / irish / jews ... and now about Asians.

What has compounded the problem for Asians is globalization of white collar jobs. In the 60s and 70s when blue collar jobs left - nobody noticed or cried about it in the media because that didn't hurt the middle class. But in the 90s and last decade white collar jobs have left which started hurting a class that had some power. For instance - my ex-manager - a white guy - decent fellow - said this to my face that his brother in law lost his job to outsourcing and now I have to hire YOU on H1. I insist - the fellow was a decent guy - I was initially mad at him but over time was able to let go and even like him - an MIT fellow - it was nice to discuss many things with him.

The point is - it is not just "Top Leaders" nor they have to be EVIL to oppose outsourcing and immigrants. Just plain human nature.

Organizations develop culture over time. You have to understand DoS culture. They shit all over the world. No kidding - and they know it. And hence they are tolerant and wise towards immigration policy. They like immigrants - not for altruistic reasons but at times practical reasons and at times out of personal experience.

Now think about USCIS - these are mostly old white people in their 60s who probably never left the proverbial "scranton". How do you expect them to perceive you coming over here?

p.s. - When I got my first H1 stamped in Mumbai - the American guy behind the window was probably from Michigan and asked me how was Michigan weather. His face lit up for a moment when I talked about Michigan. I feel a pain when I hear about Australia - the first abroad trip ever. USCIS is missing that. They are stuck in fear.

[YTeleven]

Signed !! but not having any hopes :(
Look at this OPT rule: 1653-AA72. OPT students mobilized in big way and cleared 100k+ signs on their white house petition on Sep26th and OMB quickly concluded this rule yesterday and now this rule is going into commenting period.
We had a similar 140-EAD petition started on the same day when the OPT petition started and we could not mobilize that many people to sign the petition and its gone dead.
I'm sure there are more than 100k+ people will be affected with this 140-EAD petition but we need to wake up them to sign it.
Most of them not even aware of that it will take 10 to 12 years to file their EAD
Ex: a person who filled I-140 today in EB2-I has to wait for another 10 years to file the EAD. If any recession comes in between imagine how difficult is to survive. We have seen how much demand destruction happened in the last recession.
AILA & other law firms campaigning the other petition to reverse the Oct'15 VB but the people affected are of 20k and they are sub-set of these 100k+
and the benefit is temporary allowing less people to file AOS for one month. This petition is pointing to a permanent solution and for all the affected people including those 20k.

Q,
Why don't we promote this new petition from this forum? We know the numbers better than others.

Suva & others,
Could you please promote this new petition to other forums like trackitt?

[tatikonda]

Shared this with the Wattsup group..
I think, we need to copy this is trackitt / Ron Gotcher's forum / Murthy / immigration girl and other sites..


Signed !! but not having any hopes :(

[qesehmk]

Q,
Why don't we promote this new petition from this forum? We know the numbers better than others.

Of course YT. Anything that helps folks!

I created a notice for every visitor.

Guys sign it even if you have your EAD - just for folks who are behind you. They are going to be in much longer wait than you. So do your bit.

[CleanSock]

Very well said Q. I am a firm believer of how travels change a person for good. Education has never guaranteed openness to other people and many times common sense too. It is the people who travel who are the most open minded and tolerant of people from other cultures/countries.


All immigrants - black / white / brown / yellow - always face resistance initially and get assimilated over time. True about italians / irish / jews ... and now about Asians.

What has compounded the problem for Asians is globalization of white collar jobs. In the 60s and 70s when blue collar jobs left - nobody noticed or cried about it in the media because that didn't hurt the middle class. But in the 90s and last decade white collar jobs have left which started hurting a class that had some power. For instance - my ex-manager - a white guy - decent fellow - said this to my face that his brother in law lost his job to outsourcing and now I have to hire YOU on H1. I insist - the fellow was a decent guy - I was initially mad at him but over time was able to let go and even like him - an MIT fellow - it was nice to discuss many things with him.

The point is - it is not just "Top Leaders" nor they have to be EVIL to oppose outsourcing and immigrants. Just plain human nature.

Organizations develop culture over time. You have to understand DoS culture. They shit all over the world. No kidding - and they know it. And hence they are tolerant and wise towards immigration policy. They like immigrants - not for altruistic reasons but at times practical reasons and at times out of personal experience.

Now think about USCIS - these are mostly old white people in their 60s who probably never left the proverbial "scranton". How do you expect them to perceive you coming over here?

p.s. - When I got my first H1 stamped in Mumbai - the American guy behind the window was probably from Michigan and asked me how was Michigan weather. His face lit up for a moment when I talked about Michigan. I feel a pain when I hear about Australia - the first abroad trip ever. USCIS is missing that. They are stuck in fear.

[GCwaiting]

Just trying to guess .... will there be spill-over(SO) from EB3 ROW to EB3 I in Dec 2015 Visa?

There was a talk of Quarterly SO & dates moving fast in first 3 quarters and moving back in last if warranted.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/final_visa_modernization_report1.pdf
Page 29
Recommendation 2: Refine monthly allocation of visas: State will increase monthly visa allocation totals during the first three quarters of the fiscal year to the degree permitted by law in order to ensure that fewer numbers are left for the final quarter, thereby ensuring that visa numbers issued are as closely aligned with statutory mandates as possible

Other websites mentioned of this too.

[nth_i140]

Signed !! but not having any hopes :(

I am a silent watcher of this blog almost 3 years.. but we have to make the petition to be signed within the period i.e. Nov 14th. The OPT group has done it with positive approch and made the rule to the next stage ..
We hope something will happen approach and not keeping the momentum to sign the petition. If you look the petition needed per day is 3.3K but we are going very slow and loose the hope and go back to the routine life.

Please keep your hopes high and forward to your friends the petition link through phone text, whats app,Facebook and Twitter other groups to support the EB community. We knew this is going to be kind of loosing hopes every time but please come forward and spread to request the petition to be signed.

Please follow up and request them through your friends families and EAD holders OPT groups and green card holders. This helps to expedite the signatures count to the targets.

Please DON'T LOOSE THE HOPES and move forward to reach target with high momentum.. Rrquest again to all known groups. Recently the OPT group done the petitions to 100K signatures and the rule has been advanced. Please see the link below from Murthy forum..
http://www.murthy.com/2015/10/15/newsflash-omb-clears-stem-opt-rule-for-publication-in-fed-register/

A/ Spec, all Gurus, please add your comments and help the EB community to get atleast the I 140 EAD.

Thanks again everyone's time and achivie this target in great manner.

[Suva2001]

YTEleven

I heard petitions do not help at all. So should we spend our time on these?

Thanks

[Spectator]

Just a little rant about how slow DHS are being in releasing the Yearbook of Immigration Statistics for FY2014.

It's now over a year since FY2014 ended and the Yearbook has still not been published.

The FY2013 Yearbook was published around May/June 2014.

[dec2010]

I don't think there is any advantage to downgrade to EB3-I for EB2-I FY11 applicants.
From FY12 onwards the applications are dense and the applicants will eventually end up in downgrading to EB3 in future.
To understand the situation here is some predictions:
-----------------------------------
Year----------Expected GC timeframe
FY09----------+7years i.e FY16
FY10----------+7years i.e.FY17
FY11----------+8years i.e FY18-FY19
FY12----------+9years i.e FY20-FY21
FY13-FY15-----+10-12years. i.e FY2025
------------------------------------

YT - could you pls comment what is your level of optimism in these numbers?

FY 13/14 ( approved march/2015 ) PDs have lots of porters ( about 1800 from just CTS/I am sure there are more porters from other companies too) IMO , there is going to be higher than normal porting and will show up in 485 by mar-apr/2016.
PS - I don't work for CTS, just have few friends over there who are in same boat

[GCwaiting]

Guys.... Any updates for EB3 I ??? Any RFE / indicators....?? We are now in 3rd week of Oct.

When is the Oct 485 inventory expected ?

Please reply...

[Spectator]

The last two October USCIS pending Inventory have been published in the first week of November. The latest it has been published to date is around November 14.

[redsox2009]

Spectator can you update the approval list in the Trackitt Data section.

[Spectator]

Spectator can you update the approval list in the Trackitt Data section.redsox,

The FY2015 figures are up to date (at least when I looked yesterday).

I haven't decided yet whether to continue them in FY2016. I don't want to start, only to stop updating them later.

Since I've kept them up to date so far, here's the latest for FY2016:

EB1-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------- 15 ---- 15 ----- 32 ----- 32 ----- 40 ----- 40 ----- 34 ----- 34 ----- 50 ----- 50 ----- 46 ----- 46

Total -------- 169 ------------ 413 ------------- 338 ------------- 546 ------------- 498 -------------- 46

Actual ----- 4,563 ---------- 9,506 ----------- 9,640 ---------- 12,978

EB1A --- 10 --- 21.7%
EB1B ---- 6 --- 13.0%
EB1C --- 30 --- 65.2%
Total -- 46 -- 100.0%

FY2015 Percentages
EB1A --- 80 --- 16.1%
EB1B --- 79 --- 15.9%
EB1C -- 339 --- 68.1%
Total - 498 -- 100.0%


EB1-ALL

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------- 19 ---- 19 ----- 37 ----- 37 ----- 48 ----- 48 ----- 41 ----- 41 ----- 54 ----- 54 ----- 53 ----- 53

Total -------- 239 ------------ 543 ------------- 424 ------------- 638 ------------- 630 -------------- 53

Actual ---- 25,229 --------- 39,387 ---------- 39,058 ---------- 40,608

EB1A --- 10 --- 18.9%
EB1B ---- 9 --- 17.0%
EB1C --- 34 --- 64.2%
Total -- 53 -- 100.0%

FY2015 Percentages
EB1A -- 113 --- 17.9%
EB1B -- 106 --- 16.8%
EB1C -- 411 --- 65.2%
Total - 630 -- 100.0%


EB2-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 47 ----- 47 ---- 174 ---- 174 ----- 43 ----- 43 ---- 362 ---- 362 ----- 97 ----- 97 ------ 4 ------ 4

Total ----- 1,182 ----------- 1,470 ----------- 1,338 ----------- 1,952 ------------- 593 --------------- 4

Actual --- 23,997 ---------- 19,726 ---------- 17,193 ---------- 23,527

PD ------ 2001 -- 2002 -- 2003 -- 2004 -- 2005 -- 2006 -- 2007 -- 2008 -- 2009 --- Total
October ---- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 1 ----- 0 ----- 0 ------- 4


EB2-ROW

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 71 ----- 71 ----- 40 ----- 40 ----- 68 ----- 68 ----- 38 ----- 38 ----- 34 ----- 34 ----- 30 ----- 30

Total ------- 570 ------------- 453 ------------- 732 ------------- 416 ------------- 717 -------------- 30

Actual --- 30,161 ---------- 21,778 ---------- 36,485 ---------- 19,261

PD ------ 2006 -- 2007 -- 2008 -- 2009 -- 2010 -- 2011 -- 2012 -- 2013 -- 2014 -- 2015 -- Total
October ---- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 0 ----- 7 ---- 20 ----- 3 ----- 30

EB2 ------- 25 -- 83.3%
EB2-NIW ---- 5 -- 16.7%
Total ----- 30 - 100.0%

FY2015 Percentages
EB2 ------ 601 -- 83.8%
EB2-NIW -- 116 -- 16.2%
Total ---- 717 - 100.0%


EB3-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 15 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 10 ----- 10 ----- 59 ----- 59 ------ 7 ------ 7 ------ 1 ------ 1

Total ------- 181 ------------- 142 ------------- 348 ------------- 152 ------------- 255 --------------- 1

Actual ---- 4,002 ----------- 2,804 ----------- 7,816 ----------- 3,526


EB3-ROW

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 14 ----- 14 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 19 ----- 19 ----- 47 ----- 47 ------ 9 ------ 9 ------ 7 ------ 7

Total ------- 172 ------------- 246 ------------- 258 ------------- 291 ------------- 216 --------------- 7

Actual --- 20,744 ---------- 23,691 ---------- 23,822 ---------- 26,074

[YTeleven]

PERM stats got released for FY15: http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2015_Q4.pdf
A huge increase in India certification: 45670 @ 58%
Bad news is, with this India certifications have reached 200k post-recession i.e. from FY09 and no hope for these 45k applicants, they have to wait at least 15 years to file their EAD in EB2.
Good news to FY09 and FY10 EB2 is they might see a little spillover due to the processing delays created by these 45k applications in the system in near future.
Help yourself and sign this Whitehouse petition: https://petitions.whitehouse.gov//petition/allow-filing-i-765-ead-and-i-131-ap-upon-i-140-approval-12 to get EAD in next 6 months. Obama Administration is on it. Do your part by signing it and showing your support.

[Spectator]

The Full Year FY2015 Disclosure Data (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/docs/py2015q4/PERM_Disclosure_Data_FY15_Q4.xlsx) has also been released.

I've updated this post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2582-PERM-Certifications-FY2015?) with the actual full year figures broken down by Country/Group.

I'll update the other PERM posts in FACTS & DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) as I have time.

Edit:- The forum is too unstable to upload the figures at present. I'll do so when the situation improves.

Edit:- Further updated above post with rough calculation of EB2:EB3 ratios based on minimum educational/experience requirements.

Edit:- All posts were finally updated several hours ago (link added).

[gcy2k07]

Looking at the PERM stats, I couldn't help holding back... one company (C**) has 7198 PERMs... on top of supposedly high EB1 cases which I guess do not show up in the PERM stats....
This is almost 2.5 times the yearly allocation for EB2I.... are there really so many high skilled jobs in one company that need to be filled by immigrant from one country? Also from the I485 july inventory, EB1 has over 700% increase YoY...
Not trying to sound anti-immigrant - but something is terribly wrong....

[Deeplayer]

Hello Everyone!

I would appreciate your advice on my situation.

EB2I with a PD in Nov 2010. Thinking of moving to a different area for job opportunities for the spouse. Just before the 1st Oct 2015 visa bulletin was released, I started searching for opportunities in and around the new location, where we wanted to move. However, based on the 1st bulletin, I stopped the search with the hope that after 6 months of filing for AOS, I could change jobs. Now, as you can see, I can not file for AOS, and not sure if I should resume job search again.

If my PD is likely to get current within the next 9-12 mo, we would like to hold off for now.

I know its not easy to predict if my PD will become current (either for filing or approval), but can you guys comment on the chances of my PD getting current within the next 9-12 months?

Your advice is greatly appreciated!

[asaxena2]

PERM stats got released for FY15: http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2015_Q4.pdf
A huge increase in India certification: 45670 @ 58%
Bad news is, with this India certifications have reached 200k post-recession i.e. from FY09 and no hope for these 45k applicants, they have to wait at least 15 years to file their EAD in EB2.
Good news to FY09 and FY10 EB2 is they might see a little spillover due to the processing delays created by these 45k applications in the system in near future.
Help yourself and sign this Whitehouse petition: https://petitions.whitehouse.gov//petition/allow-filing-i-765-ead-and-i-131-ap-upon-i-140-approval-12 to get EAD in next 6 months. Obama Administration is on it. Do your part by signing it and showing your support.


YT Eleven

Do your EB 2 and eb 3 India 2016 predictions need to be modified ?

[YTeleven]

YT Eleven

Do your EB 2 and eb 3 India 2016 predictions need to be modified ?

No. These 46K Indian PERM certifications will NOT affect my FY16 predictions in any way.
In fact ALL these 46K(except the porting applications) will go into cold storage for next one decade and they will NOT be active unless Obama admin does something in the EO or next congress does any legislation.
All matters is ROW certifications, though there is a raise in ROW(NO-IC) certifications from 22,964(FY14) to 26,857(FY15) which directly affects the spillover to EB2&3-I in FY16,
I still see that these 46K of Indian PERM certifications will create processing delays for ROW applications to get complete and eventually helps EB2&3-I to get more spillover than expected.

I want to remind one more thing here, any predictions for EB2-I applications from FY13 onwards will be a waste of time as these have to go long way at least a decade to become active for EAD/GC.
I'm sorry to say this. They have to wakeup and realize this and do something, otherwise they are gone for good once the next recession comes here.
I'm hoping Obama Administration knows this and will do something in the EO.

[harapatha]

..
I want to remind one more thing here, any predictions for EB2-I applications from FY13 onwards will be a waste of time as these have to go long way at least a decade to become active for EAD/GC.
I'm sorry to say this. They have to wakeup and realize this and do something, otherwise they are gone for good once the next recession comes here.
..


Thanks YT for your insight as always.. This is a clarion call for all EB-I/backlogged ones to get united and push admin/congress for fixes. Otherwise, it aint going no where!

[oraclept]

This is my 1st post.

Visa modernization affect on EB2I/EB3I

Will this help EB2I/EB3I or hurt ?

I think ROW can always do concurrent filing. Only thing delaying is labor.

[LeoAugust]

Hi YTeleven,

I am new to this forum and would like to understand my PD is on Nov-5-2013. Do I come under FY14 or FY13?

Appreciate a response.

[sanjeevsinha05]

October 2015 Demand Data is out

[sanjeevsinha05]

October 2015 Demand Data is out

[jimmys]

The 485 Oct inventory is out. I don't know how far we can believe in these numbers.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I_485_Pending_Inventory_10202015.pdf 485 October Inventory

[EB3Iwaiting]

The 485 Oct inventory is out. I don't know how far we can believe in these numbers.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I_485_Pending_Inventory_10202015.pdf 485 October Inventory

EB3I pending inventory for 2004 went down from 8837 to 4429. 4400 visas cleared. How much spillover are we expecting in FY2016 and how much do we expect to get cleared?

[cursedguy]

Hello Everyone!

I would appreciate your advice on my situation.

EB2I with a PD in Nov 2010. Thinking of moving to a different area for job opportunities for the spouse. Just before the 1st Oct 2015 visa bulletin was released, I started searching for opportunities in and around the new location, where we wanted to move. However, based on the 1st bulletin, I stopped the search with the hope that after 6 months of filing for AOS, I could change jobs. Now, as you can see, I can not file for AOS, and not sure if I should resume job search again.

If my PD is likely to get current within the next 9-12 mo, we would like to hold off for now.

I know its not easy to predict if my PD will become current (either for filing or approval), but can you guys comment on the chances of my PD getting current within the next 9-12 months?

Your advice is greatly appreciated!


Under current conditions Almost zero. Sorry. Even if 'filing' date moves it is of no help to you if you are planning to change Jobs.

[sstest]

The 485 Oct inventory is out. I don't know how far we can believe in these numbers.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I_485_Pending_Inventory_10202015.pdf 485 October Inventory

Thanks Jimmy.

Any guesses on why there are so many EB2ROW applications still open from 2013 and 2014 ? Specially second half of 2014 seems to have quite a few pending 485s..

[asaxena2]

No. These 46K Indian PERM certifications will NOT affect my FY16 predictions in any way.
In fact ALL these 46K(except the porting applications) will go into cold storage for next one decade and they will NOT be active unless Obama admin does something in the EO or next congress does any legislation.
All matters is ROW certifications, though there is a raise in ROW(NO-IC) certifications from 22,964(FY14) to 26,857(FY15) which directly affects the spillover to EB2&3-I in FY16,
I still see that these 46K of Indian PERM certifications will create processing delays for ROW applications to get complete and eventually helps EB2&3-I to get more spillover than expected.

I want to remind one more thing here, any predictions for EB2-I applications from FY13 onwards will be a waste of time as these have to go long way at least a decade to become active for EAD/GC.
I'm sorry to say this. They have to wakeup and realize this and do something, otherwise they are gone for good once the next recession comes here.
I'm hoping Obama Administration knows this and will do something in the EO.


The inventory is out, and the numbers are going as per your prediction

[asaxena2]

The inventory is out, and the numbers are going as per your prediction

[YTeleven]

The inventory is out, and the numbers are going as per your prediction

Yes. Look at this chart and the EB3-I inventory on 1stOct2015.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92NE5OT2lnaGdrSmM/edit?pli=1
Its precisely following the prediction chart for last 1 year and the question is can it follow for current year too.
I strongly say YES and we will see the wipeout of EB3-I backlogs by 1stOct2016 and EB3-I dates moving beyond Jul2007 for the first time after 9 years of waiting.
All good signs for EB3-I.

[4WatItsWorth]

Yes. Look at this chart and the EB3-I inventory on 1stOct2015.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92NE5OT2lnaGdrSmM/edit?pli=1
Its precisely following the prediction chart for last 1 year and the question is can it follow for current year too.
I strongly say YES and we will see the wipeout of EB3-I backlogs by 1stOct2016 and EB3-I dates moving beyond Jul2007 for the first time after 9 years of waiting.
All good signs for EB3-I.Do you have a forecast for EB2-I too?

[GCwaiting]

YT
Wow !!! Really impressive. Your chart has been making rounds across many forums.
I am EB3 I with PD in Mar2005. Hope it will be current in May as you have predicted.
Just one point - do you feel there will be quarterly SO. Your are showing a drop in EB3 in Jan 2016 & another big drop in Jul 2016.

[imdeng]

For USCIS purposes, Oct XX to Sep XX+1 falls under FY XX+1. So you will be FY14. I don't know whats the relevance of that though.

Hi YTeleven,

I am new to this forum and would like to understand my PD is on Nov-5-2013. Do I come under FY14 or FY13?

Appreciate a response.

[imdeng]

So essentially no reduction in EB2I inventory in one whole year. All the visas in this category was taken by porting? Am I missing something here??

[geterdone]

So essentially no reduction in EB2I inventory in one whole year. All the visas in this category was taken by porting? Am I missing something here??

Any idea how many visas EB2-I got last year? 7K?

[Spectator]

Hi YTeleven,

I am new to this forum and would like to understand my PD is on Nov-5-2013. Do I come under FY14 or FY13?

Appreciate a response.Your PD says that your PERM was submitted to DOL in FY2014.

For all other purposes (e.g. Cut Off Dates, Inventory), the more important fact is that your PD comes under CY2013.

[Spectator]

Thanks Jimmy.

Any guesses on why there are so many EB2ROW applications still open from 2013 and 2014 ? Specially second half of 2014 seems to have quite a few pending 485s..The processing time for a PERM, I-140 and I-485 is on average at least a year, even if all goes fairly smoothly, so that shouldn't be too surprising IMO.

Given PERM certifications have only recently reached April 2005 cases, the majority of 2015 cases are likely to be NIW and Schedule A, where no PERM is required.

[Spectator]

Yes. Look at this chart and the EB3-I inventory on 1stOct2015.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92NE5OT2lnaGdrSmM/edit?pli=1
Its precisely following the prediction chart for last 1 year and the question is can it follow for current year too.
I strongly say YES and we will see the wipeout of EB3-I backlogs by 1stOct2016 and EB3-I dates moving beyond Jul2007 for the first time after 9 years of waiting.
All good signs for EB3-I.YT,

I too had an estimate of 20k for EB3-I Inventory (and 18.5k for EB2-I), yet I am having difficulty reconciling that figure with wiping out the EB3-I Inventory in FY2016.

I understand that due to removals associated porting, 20k approvals aren't required to bring the Inventory to zero. Let's say it only requires 15k because 5k (as an example only) will be reductions due to porting, denials etc.

If China and Mexico use 3k each, Philippines uses 5-6k and India uses 15k then that totals 26-27k. That only leaves 13-14k available for ROW approvals.

The demand pipeline for ROW appears to be a fair bit higher than that.

What's your breakdown of where the numbers for EB3-I are coming from?

[Suva2001]

I agree with Spec. Not sure how EB3 inventory would be fully cleared.

One other question I have is EB-SouthKorea usage. As per the report below South Korea (EB1+EB2+Eb3+EB4) usage for 2014 was 11561 though their limit was 9100 (130,000 * .07). How is that possible? EB3-SouthKorea used 6000 visas last year.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableV-PartII.pdf

Thanks

[LeoAugust]

Thanks for your response.

[amulchandra]

YT,

I too had an estimate of 20k for EB3-I Inventory (and 18.5k for EB2-I), yet I am having difficulty reconciling that figure with wiping out the EB3-I Inventory in FY2016.

I understand that due to removals associated porting, 20k approvals aren't required to bring the Inventory to zero. Let's say it only requires 15k because 5k (as an example only) will be reductions due to porting, denials etc.

If China and Mexico use 3k each, Philippines uses 5-6k and India uses 15k then that totals 26-27k. That only leaves 13-14k available for ROW approvals.

The demand pipeline for ROW appears to be a fair bit higher than that.

What's your breakdown of where the numbers for EB3-I are coming from?

Hi Spec,

Can you please provide your conservative estimate for EB3 I for FY2016? Is there a chance for it to touch 2006?

Thank you very much
Amul

[asaxena2]

Yes. Look at this chart and the EB3-I inventory on 1stOct2015.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92NE5OT2lnaGdrSmM/edit?pli=1
Its precisely following the prediction chart for last 1 year and the question is can it follow for current year too.
I strongly say YES and we will see the wipeout of EB3-I backlogs by 1stOct2016 and EB3-I dates moving beyond Jul2007 for the first time after 9 years of waiting.
All good signs for EB3-I.




Hi

India eb 3 will need around 20000 numbers,to clear it ?
Eb 3 row PIPELINE IS AROUND 11000.What is your calculation behind clearing of eb 3 india backlog.?

thanks

[EB3Iwaiting]

Hi

India eb 3 will need around 20000 numbers,to clear it ?
Eb 3 row PIPELINE IS AROUND 11000.What is your calculation behind clearing of eb 3 india backlog.?

thanks

Another thing to consider will be EB3P cases which go through CP. They do not show up in the pending I-485 inventory but shows up in the DOS data. EB3P CP cases have been very high and reducing spillover to EB3I. Ironically EB3P has moved ahead to 2011 too so not sure why some say there are EB3P CP cases with old PDs which take the spillover. Why are they not filing AOS when their PDs get current? EB3P has moved to 2011 very recently. Why did they not apply then?

EB3P CP cases are the thorn to EB3I movement.

[Spectator]

Another thing to consider will be EB3P cases which go through CP. They do not show up in the pending I-485 inventory but shows up in the DOS data. EB3P CP cases have been very high and reducing spillover to EB3I. Ironically EB3P has moved ahead to 2011 too so not sure why some say there are EB3P CP cases with old PDs which take the spillover. Why are they not filing AOS when their PDs get current? EB3P has moved to 2011 very recently. Why did they not apply then?

EB3P CP cases are the thorn to EB3I movement.EB3Iwaiting,

Firstly, it's incorrect to say EB3-P are using any spillover - they're not. They are using numbers within the overall 7% limit.

The majority of EB3-P applicants applicants are nurses. Many are RNs, which USCIS generally deems the qualification needed is the foreign equivalent of an Associate degree. This means most cannot use the H1B visa, then AOS, but must elect Consular Processing.

The EB3-P Cut Off Dates advanced rapidly from 15JUN07 in April 2014 to a peak of 01JUN14 in March 2015.

When their PD became current, many found that the original job offer no longer existed. They have been frantically working to find another employer who will process a new I-140. This takes time. Since they come under Schedule A, no PERM is required.

These applicants, having had a previously approved I-140, retain the PD for any new I-140 approved, so there are (and will be) a lot of EB3-P applicants with quite early PDs.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec for explaining the story of EB3P.

The gist of Spec's post is that EB3I will not be significantly impacted by EB3P backlog because although theroretically EB3P may have older dates - various circumstances prevent assiging a visa to EB3P. DoS wouldn't want to waste visas and hence they might very well assign them to EB3I.

Now that's the theory. We will see how it plays out this year when a good amount of visas are going to become available in EB3. Whether EB3P gets a large share or EB3I - we will know for sure as year progresses.



Firstly, it's incorrect to say EB3-P are using any spillover - they're not. They are using numbers within the overall 7% limit.

The majority of EB3-P applicants applicants are nurses. Many are RNs, which USCIS generally deems the qualification needed is the foreign equivalent of an Associate degree. This means most cannot use the H1B visa, then AOS, but must elect Consular Processing.

The EB3-P Cut Off Dates advanced rapidly from 15JUN07 in April 2014 to a peak of 01JUN14 in March 2015.

When their PD became current, many found that the original job offer no longer existed. They have been frantically working to find another employer who will process a new I-140. This takes time. Since they come under Schedule A, no PERM is required.

These applicants, having had a previously approved I-140, retain the PD for any new I-140 approved, so there are (and will be) a lot of EB3-P applicants with quite early PDs.

[Spectator]

Just so there's no misinterpretation.

I don't believe the rapid forward movement and job offer problems for many applicants will reduce the number of EB3-P approvals. I expect there to be 5-6k EB-P approvals. This group are quite driven and enterprising. Also, the COD reached a fairly recent date where the job offer is likely to still exist.

I think EB3-P will be bounded by reaching the overall 7% limit. At that point, EB3-I will have the earliest COD and receive any SO available.

EB3-P numbers are controlled by the number of EB2-P approvals (there aren't that many in other EB categories and they reach the limit within FB). If EB2-P have high approval numbers,then EB3-P can use less numbers before the overall 7% limit for Philippines is reached (and vice versa).

[EB3Iwaiting]

Just so there's no misinterpretation.

I don't believe the rapid forward movement and job offer problems for many applicants will reduce the number of EB3-P approvals. I expect there to be 5-6k EB-P approvals. This group are quite driven and enterprising. Also, the COD reached a fairly recent date where the job offer is likely to still exist.

I think EB3-P will be bounded by reaching the overall 7% limit. At that point, EB3-I will have the earliest COD and receive any SO available.

EB3-P numbers are controlled by the number of EB2-P approvals (there aren't that many in other EB categories and they reach the limit within FB). If EB2-P have high approval numbers,then EB3-P can use less numbers before the overall 7% limit for Philippines is reached (and vice versa).

Thank you Spec for explaining me the EB3P scenario. This is the first time someone explained this to me clearly.

Coming to the quarterly SO issue, shouldn't that be done simply to reduce visa wastage? CO should have a good idea looking at trends of EB3ROW demand and knowing that they will not utilize their full quota can apply a quarterly SO to EB3I. If demand increased over the year, he can always retrogress the dates back. If all SO is applied in Q4, USCIS will not be able to process them in time and will end up wasting visas. Wasn't this the very reason to have a quarterly SO? If that happens, are we expecting around 4k?

[Suva2001]

Why are we not talking about EB3-SouthKorea. They are also taking 5-6k visas every year. I guess EB3-[Phili+SouthKorea] combined would take close to 14,000 visas in FY16 as South Korea's perm count has doubled in FY15. Would EB3I get any SO after all these.

Thanks

[Spectator]

Why are we not talking about EB3-SouthKorea. They are also taking 5-6k visas every year. I guess EB3-[Phili+SouthKorea] combined would take close to 14,000 visas in FY16 as South Korea's perm count has doubled in FY15. Would EB3I get any SO after all these.

Thanks
Suva,

South Korea has been discussed many times on this forum.

As I have said previously, the damage caused by improved PERM certifications may be limited. Much of the increase seems to be attributable to cases that will be filed under EB3-Other Worker. This has a ceiling within EB3 of 5k of total approvals.

Looking at the PERM data for FY2014 and 2015, it's apparent that a few companies have filed a lot of EB3-EW cases for South Korea in FY2015. 21 companies have 10 or more certifications in FY2015 for South Korea with minimum educational qualifications that suggest EB3-Other Worker. They total 818 cases alone. 8 of those companies did not have a certification in FY2014. They represent 597 of the 818 cases.

[Suva2001]

Thanks Spec

[EB3Iwaiting]

The Annual report on the Immigrant Visa applications will be released next month. Can that provide a better approximation on the SO that EB3I can expect this year?

[axecapone]

http://thinkprogress.org/immigration/2015/10/30/3717991/paul-ryan-immigration-reform-freedom-caucus/

Looks like there is no relief even in the distant future.

[Spectator]

The Annual report on the Immigrant Visa applications will be released next month. Can that provide a better approximation on the SO that EB3I can expect this year?I assume you are talking about the DOS Visa Statistics.

I'll be ecstatic if they are published as early as next month.

Last year the FY2014 Visa Statistics were published very late and came out on March 24, 2015.

Generally, they are published in January/February e.g. the FY2013 Visa Statistics were published on January 15, 2014 and the FY2012 Visa Statistics were published on February 12, 2013.

More correctly, Tables V and VI have been published on those dates - some of the other tables were published earlier.

When they are published, it may well help, as we will get to see exactly how many visas each Country received in each Category. That's generally helpful for forward forecasting, since it confirms or denies the validity of the assumptions that were made for FY2015.

I'll use the opportunity to once again point out that DHS have still not published the 2014 Yearbook of Immigration Statistics - more than a year after the FY ended.

[gs1968]

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2015...ning-visagate/

Is Spec the " Number cruncher" in the article? If not he should offer his services

[gs1968]

On a more substantive note,October 2015 (specifically October 3) marked 50 years since the signing of the Hart-Cellar ACT (Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965) by President Lyndon Johnson which changed forever the immigration patterns into the USA. Setting aside all our grievances about the current state of the system, we should pause to appreciate the courage and forethought of all the Congressmen of that era that produced this and other landmark legislation including the Civil Rights Act(1964) and the Voting Rights Act(1965)

[qesehmk]

gs - i have great regard for Lyndon Johnson for his work on Civil Rights.

Can you please elaborate how the 1965 act changed the immigration patter?


On a more substantive note,October 2015 (specifically October 3) marked 50 years since the signing of the Hart-Cellar ACT (Immigration and Nationality Act of 1965) by President Lyndon Johnson which changed forever the immigration patterns into the USA. Setting aside all our grievances about the current state of the system, we should pause to appreciate the courage and forethought of all the Congressmen of that era that produced this and other landmark legislation including the Civil Rights Act(1964) and the Voting Rights Act(1965)

[YTeleven]

YT,

I too had an estimate of 20k for EB3-I Inventory (and 18.5k for EB2-I), yet I am having difficulty reconciling that figure with wiping out the EB3-I Inventory in FY2016.

I understand that due to removals associated porting, 20k approvals aren't required to bring the Inventory to zero. Let's say it only requires 15k because 5k (as an example only) will be reductions due to porting, denials etc.

If China and Mexico use 3k each, Philippines uses 5-6k and India uses 15k then that totals 26-27k. That only leaves 13-14k available for ROW approvals.

The demand pipeline for ROW appears to be a fair bit higher than that.

What's your breakdown of where the numbers for EB3-I are coming from?
Spec,
Sorry for delayed response. I had to do my homework to answer your query or to justify my prediction.
That chart:https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92NE5OT2lnaGdrSmM/edit?pli=1 I created sometime in Aug’14 and at that time my intention was to show that by FY16Q4 the EB3-I inventory levels will drop to near zero forcing CO to move the cutoff dates beyond the Jul’07 to build the inventory. The 20k figure may not be exact number but it could be less than that and as you said it could be a combination of spillover + reduction due to porting or demand destruction.
I’m still sticking to that timelines and still believe that the EB3-I backlogs will get cleared off in FY16.
I know there is EB3-Row demand in pipeline but we are NOT sure if that will meet the supply in FY16.
I always trust your demand numbers and I treat them as ideal numbers which needs to be factored to use for practical purposes as the processing delays dictates if these demand numbers should meet the supply or not in a particular FY. Nobody knows how to factor the processing delays into the calculations and hence I don’t have any tangible calculations to show how I come to that 20k figure.
Here is how I look at it, since we have both Oct’14 and Oct’15 Inventory charts now I’ll use them to support my prediction to be true. Based on above 2 inventory reports I know what happened in FY15 to EB3-Row & India:
1) Inventory figures are till Sep’2012 on 1stOct’2014
2) Opening inventory balance was 10K on 1stOct’2014
3) Inventory figures are till Aug’2015 on 1stOct’2015
4) Opening inventory balance was 11K on 1stOct’2015
5) That means in FY15, a total 3 years of demand was processed (2.5yaers of PERM data and 3 years of non-PERM data)
6) 6K of inventory before Sep’12 got cleared out of total 10K and 4K was still exists at the end of the year along with a new 7K inventory was added for the above 3 years making it a 11K opening balance on 1stOct2015.
7) Similarly for EB3-I, 7.5K of inventory cleared with 4.5K of SO from EB3-Row, another 2K of inventory cleared with porting to EB2-I.
8) So what I can infer from the above is : In spite of processing 3 years EB3-Row demand in one year(FY15), EB3-I got around 4.5K SO and there is NO significant increase in EB3-Row inventory.
9) Now projecting the same to FY16 where it needs to process only one year demand and all these demand is current demand and considering the more processing delays involved with new EB3 applications I can easily predict that the SO to EB3-I is far more than what we got in FY15 and I strongly believe that FY16 is the best year for EB3-I to wipeout of all the backlogs.
So based on above theory I don’t care what demand is in pipeline unless all of that come out of the pipeline before Sep’2016 to consume the supply.

[harapatha]

Thanks YT for your analysis.

When you say that the EB3I backlogs will be wipedout, what possible priority date could we hope to see on Oct 1 2016 for EB3 I (as things stand now).

Trying to make some sense on the term 'wipeout of backlog'. It certainly would not mean 'C' in visa bulletin for EB3I on Oct 1 2016, correct?

[YTeleven]

Thanks YT for your analysis.

When you say that the EB3I backlogs will be wipedout, what possible priority date could we hope to see on Oct 1 2016 for EB3 I (as things stand now).

Trying to make some sense on the term 'wipeout of backlog'. It certainly would not mean 'C' in visa bulletin for EB3I on Oct 1 2016, correct?

Yes. It will be beyond Aug2007. I'm expecting the dates will move from 2007 to 2010 in a progressive manner in FY 17 based on how much SO can get and how much demand left.

[Spectator]

YT,

Thanks so much for taking the time to reply. Looking at the posting time, you were up quite late, regardless of where you are located!!

Even though you haven’t said how many approvals EB3-ROW might receive, I believe I now understand why you think what you do in regard to EB3-I movement in FY2016.

I can’t agree with some of your assumptions, so I think you are underestimating EB3-ROW quite significantly. To discuss where we differ in detail would be far too long a post and would better be discussed over a beer, so I won’t attempt to do so.

I’ll point out one assumption that appears to be incorrect. In (3), you state that Inventory figures are till August 2015. That might be where the Cut Off Date has reached, but it doesn’t represent where applications in the Inventory have reached if they required a PERM certification first.

Even now, PERM certifications have only reached PDs in April 2015. Considering that an I-485 will only show in the Inventory if the underlying I-140 has been approved and considering I-140 processing times, then it appears few PERM cases, where the I-140 was processed as regular, would appear much beyond about an October 2014 PD.

When the October 2014 Inventory was released, the PERMs for September 2012 cases had been certified since Nov 2012 to Jan 2013 (very fast PERM certification at that time). That left plenty of time for an I-140 to be submitted and approved before October 2014. Most cases may have been in that Inventory. Back then, the EB3-ROW Inventory was still behaving like a retrogressed Country in many respects.

Since that time, EB3-ROW has become essentially Current for a great number of months. Certainly, the COD has been in excess of the latest PD of PERM being certified. Now, the EB3-ROW Inventory is behaving like that for a Country that is Current.

For the October 2015 Inventory, only a subset of EB3-ROW are likely to be shown. No cases where the I-140 remains unadjudicated, even if the case was filed concurrently, will be in the Inventory.

I therefore think a direct comparison between the Inventory sizes is no longer possible. As you pointed out, the latest month with a net reduction over FY2015 was September 2012.

I think we will have to agree to disagree on this subject, at least until the FY2015 Visa Statistics are published.

[4WatItsWorth]

Spec, and other gurus,

When do you plan updating the header page with 2016 predictions? Do you have a sense of how the new acceptance dates might move?

[Spectator]

4WatItsWorth,

I have no plans to update the first page at present.

We don't even know how many visas might be available to EB from FB under use last FY at the moment.

In what's likely to be a low SO scenario, that makes a huge difference. Without that, even the current Acceptance Date of July 2009 seems quite optimistic.

I don't intend to even try to guess about Acceptance Date movement. It probably won't move in the near future, if it's (under USCIS new definition) set at where the Final Action Date might reach by the end of the FY.

[4WatItsWorth]

4WatItsWorth,

I have no plans to update the first page at present.

We don't even know how many visas might be available to EB from FB under use last FY at the moment.

In what's likely to be a low SO scenario, that makes a huge difference. Without that, even the current Acceptance Date of July 2009 seems quite optimistic.

I don't intend to even try to guess about Acceptance Date movement. It probably won't move in the near future, if it's (under USCIS new definition) set at where the Final Action Date might reach by the end of the FY.Thanks, Spec. Deep down, I knew the this year does not look much better than the last but I was hoping that you would say something better. It is such a sad state of affairs!

[Spectator]

For those interested, here's the current number of Trackitt approvals for selected classes in October compared to previous years. The number is subject to change as people get round to updating their case.

EB1-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------- 15 ---- 15 ----- 32 ----- 32 ----- 40 ----- 40 ----- 34 ----- 34 ----- 50 ----- 50 ----- 76 ----- 76


EB1-ALL

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------- 19 ---- 19 ----- 37 ----- 37 ----- 48 ----- 48 ----- 41 ----- 41 ----- 54 ----- 54 ----- 85 ----- 85



EB2-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 47 ----- 47 ---- 174 ---- 174 ----- 43 ----- 43 ---- 362 ---- 362 ----- 97 ----- 97 ------ 6 ------ 6


EB2-ROW

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 71 ----- 71 ----- 40 ----- 40 ----- 68 ----- 68 ----- 38 ----- 38 ----- 34 ----- 34 ----- 50 ----- 50



EB3-India

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 15 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 10 ----- 10 ----- 59 ----- 59 ------ 7 ------ 7 ------ 4 ------ 4


EB3-ROW

---------------- FY2011 ---------- FY2012 ---------- FY2013 ---------- FY2014 ---------- FY2015 ---------- FY2016
-------------- No. -- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum. ---- No. --- Cum.
October ------ 14 ----- 14 ----- 15 ----- 15 ----- 19 ----- 19 ----- 47 ----- 47 ------ 9 ------ 9 ----- 14 ----- 14

[gten20]

http://www.dhs.gov/topic/save-date-fifth-annual-conference

2015 Fifth Annual Conference
Fifth Annual Conference
National Archives and Records Administration
Washington, D.C.
November 5, 2015
8:30 am – 4:30 pm

The Office of the Citizenship and Immigration Services Ombudsman Fifth Annual Conference will be held on Thursday, November 5, 2015.

The conference will include keynote speakers and panel discussions with federal officials and stakeholders from the public and private sectors. Please review the agenda (http://content.govdelivery.com/attachments/USDHS/2015/11/03/file_attachments/443419/DHS%2BOmbudsman%2B2015%2BAnnual%2BConference%2BAge nda.pdf) for additional information on conference topics, which will focus on trends in family, humanitarian, and employment-based immigration.

If you are unable to join us in person, portions of our conference will be live-streamed (http://www.dhs.gov/redirect?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.youtube.com%2Fwatch% 3Fv%3DnUh-VO9k15E) starting at 9:00 am.

Please send questions or comments to CISOmbudsman.PublicAffairs@hq.dhs.gov with “Annual Conference” in the subject line.

[gc_dec_2008]

Hello All, this may not be good question here, but I am EB2 my PD is Dec 2008. I have been told by USCIS for more than 1 year now that my case is under extended review? does anyone know what it is and how long it takes? It has been almost 4 years since i filed and there is no action since fingerprint in March 2012. I have gone to senator/congressman and received same boiler plate response for last one year. Any guidance will be greatly appreciated !!

[qesehmk]

I do not have specific insights but I strongly recommend using right of information and seek this information from USCIS. If I were you I would phrase my question as follows:


For following cases:
1. xxxxxxxx
2. xxxxxxxx
3. xxxxxxxx
......
n. xxxxxxxx

Please let me know.
1. If the case is ready to be approved and is only waiting for a visa.
2. If the answer to above question is "NO" - what specific processing steps are incomplete.


Hello All, this may not be good question here, but I am EB2 my PD is Dec 2008. I have been told by USCIS for more than 1 year now that my case is under extended review? does anyone know what it is and how long it takes? It has been almost 4 years since i filed and there is no action since fingerprint in March 2012. I have gone to senator/congressman and received same boiler plate response for last one year. Any guidance will be greatly appreciated !!

[Spectator]

You can find them here (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf). It's CO's best guess at this stage.

It's potentially quite bad news.

Had the figure been 140,000 for EB, then I would have said CO didn't yet know about FB numbers.

However, the number is 140,300 - an increase of just 300. That suggests that virtually no FB visas were wasted in FY2015.

Last year, the first version predicted 144,000. That was later updated to 144,730 and the final official number was 144,796.


Employment
(estimated limit)


Preference --------- China* -- All Others -- Worldwide
El ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E2 ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E3/EW -------------- 2,509 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126**
E4/SR ---------------- 697 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961
E5 --------------------- 0 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961

Total -------------- 8,821* ------- 9,821 ---- 140,300

*The provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act require that the China annual limit be
reduced by 1,000. A total of 300 numbers are deducted from the E3 category, and 700 from the
E5 category.

**The EW category is currently entitled to up to 5,000 of this total.

Unused numbers can "fall-down" from El to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can "fall-up" from E4
and E5 to EI. That fact is taken into consideration when setting the monthly/annual targets for
number use, and based on historical/recent patterns of number use.


To put this into context, the lower FB visas represents a loss of SO to EB2-I of 2.8k and a loss of SO to EB3-I of 1.0k compared to FY2015.

[mfd1402]

pls could you add the 2016 section to your main page

[harapatha]

Thanks @Spectator

@YTEleven - Do these numbers change your forecast for EB3 I (and the related chart?) or still good?

[suninphx]

You can find them here (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf). It's CO's best guess at this stage.

It's potentially quite bad news.

Had the figure been 140,000 for EB, then I would have said CO didn't yet know about FB numbers.

However, the number is 140,300 - an increase of just 300. That suggests that virtually no FB visas were wasted in FY2015.

Last year, the first version predicted 144,000. That was later updated to 144,730 and the final official number was 144,796.


Employment
(estimated limit)


Preference --------- China* -- All Others -- Worldwide
El ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E2 ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E3/EW -------------- 2,509 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126**
E4/SR ---------------- 697 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961
E5 --------------------- 0 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961

Total -------------- 8,821* ------- 9,821 ---- 140,300

*The provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act require that the China annual limit be
reduced by 1,000. A total of 300 numbers are deducted from the E3 category, and 700 from the
E5 category.

**The EW category is currently entitled to up to 5,000 of this total.

Unused numbers can "fall-down" from El to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can "fall-up" from E4
and E5 to EI. That fact is taken into consideration when setting the monthly/annual targets for
number use, and based on historical/recent patterns of number use.


To put this into context, the lower FB visas represents a loss of SO to EB2-I of 2.8k and a loss of SO to EB3-I of 1.2k compared to FY2015.


Wow ! What a great start for weekend !

[Spectator]

Wow ! What a great start for weekend !suninphx,

Just don't shoot the messenger!!! :(

[Suva2001]

suninphx,

Just don't shoot the messenger!!! :(

Spec, do you still expect SO for EB3-I in FY16? If yes then any guesstimate about how much min?

Thanks

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Just don't shoot the messenger!!! :(

spectator,

That was a reaction to the numbers rather than to your post.

Thankfully, I have much better things to do in life than 'shooting the messengers'.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Thanks @Spectator

@YTEleven - Do these numbers change your forecast for EB3 I (and the related chart?) or still good?

I think his predictions were based on the SO from EB3ROW. So do not think a low SO from FB changes his forecasts. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[qesehmk]

You answer is right - but for a different reason.

An extra visa is an extra visa - no matter where it comes from. 100% of FB SO goes to backlogged candidates in EB.

However 71% of it goes to EB4/5/1/2 and then eventually it is consumed by EB2-I. (unless one of those other categories exceeds it allocation - which rarely happens). Thus EB3 will receive 28.2% of SO - which again is mostly utilized by EB3I.

So any FB SO will make a difference on EB3I predictions depending on how large SO is. Even if FB gave 10K - EB3 (and thus EB3I) will only receive 3K. That is probably at least 3 months if not 6 months of EB3I inventory.


I think his predictions were based on the SO from EB3ROW. So do not think a low SO from FB changes his forecasts. Please correct me if I am wrong.

[amulchandra]

You answer is right - but for a different reason.

An extra visa is an extra visa - no matter where it comes from. 100% of FB SO goes to backlogged candidates in EB.

However 71% of it goes to EB4/5/1/2 and then eventually it is consumed by EB2-I. (unless one of those other categories exceeds it allocation - which rarely happens). Thus EB3 will receive 28.2% of SO - which again is mostly utilized by EB3I.

So any FB SO will make a difference on EB3I predictions depending on how large SO is. Even if FB gave 10K - EB3 (and thus EB3I) will only receive 3K. That is probably at least 3 months if not 6 months of EB3I inventory.

This is how I am looking at EB3 I movement. FY 2015 EB3 ROW started with 3 years worth of inventory. In Oct 2014 the COD for ROW was 01OCT11.
This FY it started being technically current. In FY 2015 it yielded around 4500 SO. So I am assuming the SO will be better than that in 2016-- may around 8000 which is still very good and push EB3 I to early 2006.

[EB3Iwaiting]

You answer is right - but for a different reason.

An extra visa is an extra visa - no matter where it comes from. 100% of FB SO goes to backlogged candidates in EB.

However 71% of it goes to EB4/5/1/2 and then eventually it is consumed by EB2-I. (unless one of those other categories exceeds it allocation - which rarely happens). Thus EB3 will receive 28.2% of SO - which again is mostly utilized by EB3I.

So any FB SO will make a difference on EB3I predictions depending on how large SO is. Even if FB gave 10K - EB3 (and thus EB3I) will only receive 3K. That is probably at least 3 months if not 6 months of EB3I inventory.
Certainly not denying that an extra visa is an extra visa, no matter where it comes from.

[Suva2001]

This is how I am looking at EB3 I movement. FY 2015 EB3 ROW started with 3 years worth of inventory. In Oct 2014 the COD for ROW was 01OCT11.
This FY it started being technically current. In FY 2015 it yielded around 4500 SO. So I am assuming the SO will be better than that in 2016-- may around 8000 which is still very good and push EB3 I to early 2006.

The fallacy to your calculation is EB3-ROW perm applications are also increased. So not sure if we receive more or less in FY16 compared to FY15.

Thanks

[qesehmk]

This is how I am looking at EB3 I movement. FY 2015 EB3 ROW started with 3 years worth of inventory. In Oct 2014 the COD for ROW was 01OCT11.
This FY it started being technically current. In FY 2015 it yielded around 4500 SO. So I am assuming the SO will be better than that in 2016-- may around 8000 which is still very good and push EB3 I to early 2006.
Yes. That seems quite possible.

[geterdone]

If this trend continues then another 3 to 4 years for Nov 2009 EB2I PD? Wow almost 9 to 10 years for EB2I and it is only going to get worse.


You can find them here (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf). It's CO's best guess at this stage.

It's potentially quite bad news.

Had the figure been 140,000 for EB, then I would have said CO didn't yet know about FB numbers.

However, the number is 140,300 - an increase of just 300. That suggests that virtually no FB visas were wasted in FY2015.

Last year, the first version predicted 144,000. That was later updated to 144,730 and the final official number was 144,796.


Employment
(estimated limit)


Preference --------- China* -- All Others -- Worldwide
El ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E2 ----------------- 2,809 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126
E3/EW -------------- 2,509 -------- 2,809 ----- 40,126**
E4/SR ---------------- 697 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961
E5 --------------------- 0 ---------- 697 ------ 9,961

Total -------------- 8,821* ------- 9,821 ---- 140,300

*The provisions of the Chinese Student Protection Act require that the China annual limit be
reduced by 1,000. A total of 300 numbers are deducted from the E3 category, and 700 from the
E5 category.

**The EW category is currently entitled to up to 5,000 of this total.

Unused numbers can "fall-down" from El to E2 to E3. Unused numbers can "fall-up" from E4
and E5 to EI. That fact is taken into consideration when setting the monthly/annual targets for
number use, and based on historical/recent patterns of number use.


To put this into context, the lower FB visas represents a loss of SO to EB2-I of 2.8k and a loss of SO to EB3-I of 1.0k compared to FY2015.

[transformer123]

December Visa Bulletin:
http://www.travel.state.gov/content/visas/en/law-and-policy/bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-december-2015.html
DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED
VISA APPLICATIONS: 01JUL09 (EB2I)
APPLICATION FINAL ACTION DATES FOR
EMPLOYMENT-BASED PREFERENCE CASES: 01JUN07 (EB2I)


VISA AVAILABILITY IN THE COMING MONTHS
Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: Forward movement of this date during FY-2015 has resulted in a
dramatic increase in demand. Little, if any movement is likely
during the coming months.
India: Up to eight months.

[EB3Iwaiting]

This means a quarterly SO has not been applied.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

This means a quarterly SO has not been applied.

That is the only thing we can say confidently!!

[harapatha]

I think his predictions were based on the SO from EB3ROW. So do not think a low SO from FB changes his forecasts. Please correct me if I am wrong.

Thank you!

[EB3Iwaiting]

To the experts in this forum:

Can someone explain to me why the EB3ROW cut-off dates are provided the way they are? I know that technically the dates look Current. But then why not simply write "C"? Is it because CO is not sure of the EB3ROW demand?

Also, they said that EB3I Final Action dates will move a few weeks for the next few months. I am assuming no movement to the Filing Dates. So, when can we expect the Filing dates to move?

[Jagan01]

That is the only thing we can say confidently!!
I guess you are talking about EB3I.

From the EB2I numbers it looks like the quarterly SO has been applied. I would doubt that they pick a different strategy for EB2 and a different one for EB3.

[EB3Iwaiting]

I guess you are talking about EB3I.

From the EB2I numbers it looks like the quarterly SO has been applied. I would doubt that they pick a different strategy for EB2 and a different one for EB3.

So you are saying EB3I has no spillovers from EB3ROW?

[Jagan01]

So you are saying EB3I has no spillovers from EB3ROW?
How would you know the SO coming from EB3ROW so early in the year. That is something that you would only know pretty late in the FY. SO from EB3ROW means the amount EB3ROW does not use in "this" FY.

As of now the only SO is 300 visas (total for all EB) and that really is an insignificant number. So quarterly SO may have been applied for the amount of SO known as of today.

[qesehmk]

Guys as Jagan says - Quarterly Spillover can only be applied in the last month of quarter at the very earliest. This is just November. So ZERO chance of any quartely spillover being applied to any category.

[vyruss]

December Bulletin says forward movement "Upto 8 months". Is this a guesstimate for total movement that can expected by Oct 2016? :confused:

[gcq]

Typically SO is applied only in last quarter. However this is a special year for EB3 in terms of EB3ROW becoming officially current. If CO believes that there is not going to be much EB3 ROW demand, he can confidently do the spillover in advance. However he can easily wait for the last quarter and apply full spillover if he feels confident of less EB3 ROW demand.

IMO the reason EB3I is moving more than 1 week every bulletin is because dates till Dec 2004 was current last year. Many of the applicants from later 2004 got approved. I was approved last year (May 2004 PD). Many from Dec 2004 was also approved. So till Dec 2004 EB3I has less than normal demand. So with 300 visas coming from regular quota every month, dates will easily move more than a week. Once it hits 2005, it will be back to normal movement ( 1 week). I think monthly movement will be more than 3 weeks for EB3I india as CO is unnecessarily holding back EB3I movement because of his bias towards EB3ROW ( yes, I am saying that again !).

[qesehmk]

How is post - GC life GCQ?


Typically SO is applied only in last quarter. However this is a special year for EB3 in terms of EB3ROW becoming officially current. If CO believes that there is not going to be much EB3 ROW demand, he can confidently do the spillover in advance. However he can easily wait for the last quarter and apply full spillover if he feels confident of less EB3 ROW demand.

IMO the reason EB3I is moving more than 1 week every bulletin is because dates till Dec 2004 was current last year. Many of the applicants from later 2004 got approved. I was approved last year (May 2004 PD). Many from Dec 2004 was also approved. So till Dec 2004 EB3I has less than normal demand. So with 300 visas coming from regular quota every month, dates will easily move more than a week. Once it hits 2005, it will be back to normal movement ( 1 week). I think monthly movement will be more than 3 weeks for EB3I india as CO is unnecessarily holding back EB3I movement because of his bias towards EB3ROW ( yes, I am saying that again !).

[gcq]

How is post - GC life GCQ?
I am very relaxed with a GC. Seeing all this craziness going on in immigration front, sometimes I forget I have GC and feel quite disturbed. It is hard to stay away from immigration topics even after getting GC.

[qesehmk]

I can understand. I have exactly the same feelings.
I am very relaxed with a GC. Seeing all this craziness going on in immigration front, sometimes I forget I have GC and feel quite disturbed. It is hard to stay away from immigration topics even after getting GC.

[anuprab]

Typically SO is applied only in last quarter. However this is a special year for EB3 in terms of EB3ROW becoming officially current. If CO believes that there is not going to be much EB3 ROW demand, he can confidently do the spillover in advance. However he can easily wait for the last quarter and apply full spillover if he feels confident of less EB3 ROW demand.

IMO the reason EB3I is moving more than 1 week every bulletin is because dates till Dec 2004 was current last year. Many of the applicants from later 2004 got approved. I was approved last year (May 2004 PD). Many from Dec 2004 was also approved. So till Dec 2004 EB3I has less than normal demand. So with 300 visas coming from regular quota every month, dates will easily move more than a week. Once it hits 2005, it will be back to normal movement ( 1 week). I think monthly movement will be more than 3 weeks for EB3I india as CO is unnecessarily holding back EB3I movement because of his bias towards EB3ROW ( yes, I am saying that again !).

so you are saying post 2005, one week movement ! what does mean for people like me who have a June 2006 EB3 date. from the looks no hope FY16, does FY17 look brighter??

I would also love YTelven to chime in if possible as he has been the most optimistic person with that famous chart of his that's being going across forums...

[geterdone]

December Bulletin says forward movement "Upto 8 months". Is this a guesstimate for total movement that can expected by Oct 2016? :confused:

This is what they had in the visa bulletin:

The above projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through March based on current applicant demand patterns.

So if you take 8 month movements for the next 3 bulletins it can go till June 2009. I am not sure if that will happen but you never know.

[gcq]

so you are saying post 2005, one week movement ! what does mean for people like me who have a June 2006 EB3 date. from the looks no hope FY16, does FY17 look brighter??

I would also love YTelven to chime in if possible as he has been the most optimistic person with that famous chart of his that's being going across forums...
I am no expert like YT, Spec or Q.
By the time dates hits 2005, the fall across from EB3-ROW would have started. So you HAVE hope this year !.

[EB3Iwaiting]

The difference in this year's EB3 category is that EB3ROW is finally current (or sort of current based on the cut-off date). Last year, EB3ROW cleared 3 years worth of backlog and EB3I still got around 4500 SO from that category. So, it is expected that EB3I will get more SO from that category this year. The only thing is, when will CO start applying this? I agree from a post above that he is being conservative and does not want to advance EB3I dates too fast and allowing more time to see EB3ROW demand. So, maybe some time in April we can start seeing SO, or maybe even after that?

[harapatha]

The difference in this year's EB3 category is that EB3ROW is finally current (or sort of current based on the cut-off date). Last year, EB3ROW cleared 3 years worth of backlog and EB3I still got around 4500 SO from that category. So, it is expected that EB3I will get more SO from that category this year. The only thing is, when will CO start applying this? I agree from a post above that he is being conservative and does not want to advance EB3I dates too fast and allowing more time to see EB3ROW demand. So, maybe some time in April we can start seeing SO, or maybe even after that?

Sounds sweet to me. The fact that CO has to apply the spillover (>4500) to EB3I *sometime* this FY is a great outcome - In line with YT's forecasts.. Thanks @EB3IWaiting.

[amulchandra]

The difference in this year's EB3 category is that EB3ROW is finally current (or sort of current based on the cut-off date). Last year, EB3ROW cleared 3 years worth of backlog and EB3I still got around 4500 SO from that category. So, it is expected that EB3I will get more SO from that category this year. The only thing is, when will CO start applying this? I agree from a post above that he is being conservative and does not want to advance EB3I dates too fast and allowing more time to see EB3ROW demand. So, maybe some time in April we can start seeing SO, or maybe even after that?

You echoed exactly what I said. This is what I said.

This is how I am looking at EB3 I movement. FY 2015 EB3 ROW started with 3 years worth of inventory. In Oct 2014 the COD for ROW was 01OCT11.
This FY it started being technically current. In FY 2015 it yielded around 4500 SO. So I am assuming the SO will be better than that in 2016-- may around 8000 which is still very good and push EB3 I to early 2006.

[anuprab]

Sounds sweet to me. The fact that CO has to apply the spillover (>4500) to EB3I *sometime* this FY is a great outcome - In line with YT's forecasts.. Thanks @EB3IWaiting.

yup. I am no expert but from pending inventory we still have 4.4k in 2004 to be cleared out and another 5k in 2005. so not sure if the entire backlog will be wiped out in FY 16 and if the dates can reach even early 2006.

[EB3Iwaiting]

yup. I am no expert but from pending inventory we still have 4.4k in 2004 to be cleared out and another 5k in 2005. so not sure if the entire backlog will be wiped out in FY 16 and if the dates can reach even early 2006.
Early 2006 is a safe bet. Anything more than that would be great. If It happens as per YTEleven's famous graph, he will forever become the hero/savior whatever you may call it of EB3Is.