EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[user017]

On EB3 downgrade rejection, it is isolated to one service center due to a training issue. There is no change in USCIS policy, downgrade must be a new application.

[vsivarama]

Nope. Mailed Oct. 9. EB3 downgrade via new I-140 filing. I think besides the deluge of applications, the USCIS is confused whether they want to reject all downgrades to EB3 that were not filed as I-140 EB2 amendments, which would be a departure from their previous practice. I am thinking we will not get receipts this month. It is tricky in that if they do return these EB3 downgrades that are not amendments to the previously approved EB2 I-140s, and USCIS does not accept filing dates next month, those applicants will probably not get a chance to file AOS (and get EAD/AP) for a long time. At the same time, I think it is risky amending the approved EB2 I-140 and letting USCIS another express opportunity to mess with it,

As per my attorney, AILA verified this with USCIS, and USCIS confirmed that they are accepting applications filed as new and everything else is just conjecture at this point. Even if they reject all the downgrades, the lawyers will refile the application in November regardless of FD or FAD as they were filed in a timely manner and there is no basis in the rules for rejection. I know our trust in govt. is very low at this point, but USCIS cannot just make up rules as they go along. USCIS is in dire need of funds.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Question – Any instance of VB not released at all in the past for a month. What is Rule Book says?

No, you can check the records back to 2002.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Update from Siskind:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1321168498391945216

@gsiskind
Still no November Visa Bulletin. I have heard that the issue is with something having nothing to do with the backlogged folks and has something to do with Trump's EO on Hong Kong. But really no details to add and it's very second hand.

[delguy]

Question – Any instance of VB not released at all in the past for a month. What is Rule Book says?

There is nothing written as such but they should release it before 1st of next month. So we should have it by Friday.

Before Trump admin it was always released around 10th and even a release date of 15 was considered late. Usually we had it before that and rarely around 15th. Dont remember it ever released on 20th or later.

I believe they might be planning to retrogress the dates in the coming VB instead of moving them. Chances are EB-3 may retrogress and EB-2 moves ahead to control the EB-3 downgrades.

[rabp77]

Update from Siskind:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1321168498391945216

@gsiskind
Still no November Visa Bulletin. I have heard that the issue is with something having nothing to do with the backlogged folks and has something to do with Trump's EO on Hong Kong. But really no details to add and it's very second hand.

Its either this. There is also some speculation that they are just delaying it to get to know exact number of application they get in October to decide if filing dates can be accepted for November. That speculation seems strange because after the state dept publishes its bulletin, uscis normally takes a few days to say if filing dates will be accepted. Maybe they are just trying arrive on a combined decision. All speculation.

[inspired_p]

There is nothing written as such but they should release it before 1st of next month. So we should have it by Friday.

Before Trump admin it was always released around 10th and even a release date of 15 was considered late. Usually we had it before that and rarely around 15th. Dont remember it ever released on 20th or later.

I believe they might be planning to retrogress the dates in the coming VB instead of moving them. Chances are EB-3 may retrogress and EB-2 moves ahead to control the EB-3 downgrades.

If we are speculating, then I do not see any reason for USCIS to retrogress the Filling dates for either EB2 or EB3, it only adds more revenue to them. They can control the number of visas allotted using the FAD and they have been conservative on that date even in October 2020. Number of EB3 downgrade petitions are also should not be an issue for USCIS for the same reason as above, its double fees for the same person applying, the visa number consumed stays the same.

I believe the Filling dates will not move for this year anymore. USCIS will only decide to use them or not in every subsequent bulletin while moving the FADs conservatively till December 2020. If the consulates open up . they can see more EB3 demand from outside the country that they can fulfill, else they will start processing AOS within the country (basically the backlogged countries)

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://www.aila.org/advo-media/issues/all/fy2021-visa-bulletins

AILA Doc. No. 20101201 | Dated October 27, 2020

This featured issue page gathers resources related to FY2021 visa bulletins.

November 2020
The November Visa Bulletin remains in clearance at the DOS, due to an internal dispute of some new language unrelated to priority dates. Watch this Roundtable to find out the latest on why AILA expects that we will see forward movement in the November priority dates and that USCIS will continue using Dates for Filing in November. The Roundtable also has helpful practice and ethics information and gives you a rundown of all available resources related to the Visa Bulletin.

FYI, Roundtable is accessible only to AILA members

[Moveon]

If we are speculating, then I do not see any reason for USCIS to retrogress the Filling dates for either EB2 or EB3, it only adds more revenue to them. They can control the number of visas allotted using the FAD and they have been conservative on that date even in October 2020. Number of EB3 downgrade petitions are also should not be an issue for USCIS for the same reason as above, its double fees for the same person applying, the visa number consumed stays the same.

I believe the Filling dates will not move for this year anymore. USCIS will only decide to use them or not in every subsequent bulletin while moving the FADs conservatively till December 2020. If the consulates open up . they can see more EB3 demand from outside the country that they can fulfill, else they will start processing AOS within the country (basically the backlogged countries)

Speaking about revenue, the USCIS might not be too happy with a lot of folks getting the EAD. Will they not make more money with HIB transfers and renewals ? It also keeps the consulates busy in India . For them HIB is a gift that keeps giving .

[inspired_p]

Speaking about revenue, the USCIS might not be too happy with a lot of folks getting the EAD. Will they not make more money with HIB transfers and renewals ? It also keeps the consulates busy in India . For them HIB is a gift that keeps giving .

That is a good point as well. A lot of non immigrants will stop being non immigrants along with their families getting right to work. They do have incentive for not allowing EB3-I apply in mass numbers. As I have speculated, I do believe they are moving the FAD cautiously till December 2020 in hopes that consulates open up around the world and they can siphon more visas away from the spillover to countries other than India. EB3 ROW does not have any limit and can consume as many visas applied in that year eating into the spillover.If consulates remain close only demand will be from within the US and EB3-ROW will have finite number of applicants within US that will be greened in this year for sure.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Cliffs Notes from Siskind's FB video chat:

I-485 filing: Apps HAVE to be in USCIS on Oct 30 or may be rejected

Visa Bulletin Notes:
Should be out by the end of the week
Record for latest bulletin ever released
Likely that they are trying to figure out EB2/EB3 app number
Don't know what FADs are going to be for EB2/EB3
Some in internal circles (Stock) are predicting EB2/EB3 FADs to advanced further
Siskind does not know how many numbers roll over yet and not very optimistic
Thinks Eb2 is going to move forward because of heavy downgrades
From Bill Stock estimates - there is a 120k rollover, 40k each for EB1/2/3 + 40k for a total of 80k each category
ROW gets a crack at 80k, but there is not going to be enough usage as they are current
All extra numbers are going to be used by backlogged categories

Siskind thinks pure EB3 India will use up most of the numbers (i.e. those who filed in EB3 and stayed in that queue)
Question is Eb2 - EB3 downgrades, thinks there are probably 150k - 200k who are going to downgrade
Also heard that delays are due to EO on Hong Kong and those numbers are being counted

Warning: Problems people are having in EB2-EB3 downgrades when filing in Premium
Their firm is yet to see any denials
AILA is reporting that people are sporadically getting denials on premium processing, some are getting outright denials
Recommendation is do regular processing, get receipted and then do premium

Questions:
CSPA
CSPA says age is frozen when visa number is immediately available, i.e. FAD is current, and not DF
Siskind thinks that is a problem because the whole reason DF is available is that they think the numbers are there within the FY, then why does CSPA not follow that. So opens up to potential lawsuits.

Blank fields in I-485
Siskind does not think it is being applied to EB, and it only seems to being applied to asylum applications.

FB to EB Spillover prevention legislation
Don't need to worry about numbers that rolled over already from FY2020 to FY2021.
House bill is not going to happen.
There may be an effect on rollover from FY2021 to FY2022 and they may try to stop that to alleviate pressure on FB applicants.

What to do if you already downgraded in Oct and now EB2 is current in Nov?
If you filed new EB3 I-140 for downgrade, you can again file I-485 with old I-140
If you did not do that, file fresh I-485 interfile based on old I-140. It could be tricky.

[Sebiswaiting]

Prediction game :)
My predictions:
EB2 FAD will move by 4 months.
EB3 FAD will move by 3.5 months.
EB2 FD will remain same
EB3 FD may move back to Jun 2014
Nov will still use filing date.
Just PREDICTION nothing else.

[inspired_p]

Prediction game :)
My predictions:
EB2 FAD will move by 4 months.
EB3 FAD will move by 3.5 months.
EB2 FD will remain same
EB3 FD may move back to Jun 2014
Nov will still use filing date.
Just PREDICTION nothing else.


My predictions:
EB2-I FAD will move by 4 months.
EB3-I FAD will move by 6 months.
EB2-I FD will remain same
EB3-I FD will remain same
Nov will still use filing date.

[usvisas]

My guesstimate (hope it actually is much much better than this)

EB2 FAD will move by 2 months at the most (01NOV09) .
EB3 FAD will move to 30APR2010 at least.
EB2 FD will remain same
EB3 FD will remain same
Nov will still use filing date.

[inspired_p]

Cliffs Notes from Siskind's FB video chat:

I-485 filing: Apps HAVE to be in USCIS on Oct 30 or may be rejected

Visa Bulletin Notes:
Should be out by the end of the week
Record for latest bulletin ever released
Likely that they are trying to figure out EB2/EB3 app number
Don't know what FADs are going to be for EB2/EB3
Some in internal circles (Stock) are predicting EB2/EB3 FADs to advanced further
Siskind does not know how many numbers roll over yet and not very optimistic
Thinks Eb2 is going to move forward because of heavy downgrades
From Bill Stock estimates - there is a 120k rollover, 40k each for EB1/2/3 + 40k for a total of 80k each category
ROW gets a crack at 80k, but there is not going to be enough usage as they are current
All extra numbers are going to be used by backlogged categories

Siskind thinks pure EB3 India will use up most of the numbers (i.e. those who filed in EB3 and stayed in that queue)
Question is Eb2 - EB3 downgrades, thinks there are probably 150k - 200k who are going to downgrade
Also heard that delays are due to EO on Hong Kong and those numbers are being counted

Warning: Problems people are having in EB2-EB3 downgrades when filing in Premium
Their firm is yet to see any denials
AILA is reporting that people are sporadically getting denials on premium processing, some are getting outright denials
Recommendation is do regular processing, get receipted and then do premium

Questions:
CSPA
CSPA says age is frozen when visa number is immediately available, i.e. FAD is current, and not DF
Siskind thinks that is a problem because the whole reason DF is available is that they think the numbers are there within the FY, then why does CSPA not follow that. So opens up to potential lawsuits.

Blank fields in I-485
Siskind does not think it is being applied to EB, and it only seems to being applied to asylum applications.

FB to EB Spillover prevention legislation
Don't need to worry about numbers that rolled over already from FY2020 to FY2021.
House bill is not going to happen.
There may be an effect on rollover from FY2021 to FY2022 and they may try to stop that to alleviate pressure on FB applicants.

What to do if you already downgraded in Oct and now EB2 is current in Nov?
If you filed new EB3 I-140 for downgrade, you can again file I-485 with old I-140
If you did not do that, file fresh I-485 interfile based on old I-140. It could be tricky.

Good notes!

[JoinedToAsk]

I am curious: what happens when USCIS doesn't have the capacity to process so many AOS applications and GC? Will they waste visas/GCs?

[inspired_p]

I am curious: what happens when USCIS doesn't have the capacity to process so many AOS applications and GC? Will they waste visas/GCs?
If they can’t process the visas till September 2021 then yes they have to reset the next years EB Visa availability to 140K + FB spillover of 2021( which might be substantial as well).
I also heard that whatever visas not allotted in EB2 this year ( considering 261K) will move back to FB visas for 2022 year.
So technically visas are not lost they just go back to FB in the next year

[aGCHopefull]

If they can’t process the visas till September 2021 then yes they have to reset the next years EB Visa availability to 140K + FB spillover of 2021( which might be substantial as well).
I also heard that whatever visas not allotted in EB2 this year ( considering 261K) will move back to FB visas for 2022 year.
So technically visas are not lost they just go back to FB in the next year

Do they keep going back in circle? I was under impression they don't go back again to FB. Those visa # would most likely be lost.

[Moveon]

Do they keep going back in circle? I was under impression they don't go back again to FB. Those visa # would most likely be lost.

That is my understanding too. Any unused Visa's will need to be recaptured by a bill I suppose . Did they do that in 2005 when we had close to 250K GCs ?

[Zenzone]

Cliffs Notes from Siskind's FB video chat:

I-485 filing: Apps HAVE to be in USCIS on Oct 30 or may be rejected

Visa Bulletin Notes:
Should be out by the end of the week
Record for latest bulletin ever released
Likely that they are trying to figure out EB2/EB3 app number
Don't know what FADs are going to be for EB2/EB3
Some in internal circles (Stock) are predicting EB2/EB3 FADs to advanced further
Siskind does not know how many numbers roll over yet and not very optimistic
Thinks Eb2 is going to move forward because of heavy downgrades
From Bill Stock estimates - there is a 120k rollover, 40k each for EB1/2/3 + 40k for a total of 80k each category
ROW gets a crack at 80k, but there is not going to be enough usage as they are current
All extra numbers are going to be used by backlogged categories

Siskind thinks pure EB3 India will use up most of the numbers (i.e. those who filed in EB3 and stayed in that queue)
Question is Eb2 - EB3 downgrades, thinks there are probably 150k - 200k who are going to downgrade
Also heard that delays are due to EO on Hong Kong and those numbers are being counted

Warning: Problems people are having in EB2-EB3 downgrades when filing in Premium
Their firm is yet to see any denials
AILA is reporting that people are sporadically getting denials on premium processing, some are getting outright denials
Recommendation is do regular processing, get receipted and then do premium

Questions:
CSPA
CSPA says age is frozen when visa number is immediately available, i.e. FAD is current, and not DF
Siskind thinks that is a problem because the whole reason DF is available is that they think the numbers are there within the FY, then why does CSPA not follow that. So opens up to potential lawsuits.

Blank fields in I-485
Siskind does not think it is being applied to EB, and it only seems to being applied to asylum applications.

FB to EB Spillover prevention legislation
Don't need to worry about numbers that rolled over already from FY2020 to FY2021.
House bill is not going to happen.
There may be an effect on rollover from FY2021 to FY2022 and they may try to stop that to alleviate pressure on FB applicants.

What to do if you already downgraded in Oct and now EB2 is current in Nov?
If you filed new EB3 I-140 for downgrade, you can again file I-485 with old I-140
If you did not do that, file fresh I-485 interfile based on old I-140. It could be tricky.

Great summary my friend!

[Zenzone]

That is a good point as well. A lot of non immigrants will stop being non immigrants along with their families getting right to work. They do have incentive for not allowing EB3-I apply in mass numbers. As I have speculated, I do believe they are moving the FAD cautiously till December 2020 in hopes that consulates open up around the world and they can siphon more visas away from the spillover to countries other than India. EB3 ROW does not have any limit and can consume as many visas applied in that year eating into the spillover.If consulates remain close only demand will be from within the US and EB3-ROW will have finite number of applicants within US that will be greened in this year for sure.

You are absolutely inflating the ROW case here. I want to add that context here to balance out your commentary here.

[AlmostThere]

My predictions for Nov-2020:
EB2-I FAD will move by 3 months.
EB3-I FAD will move by 4 months.
EB2-I FD will remain same for the first half of the year, then a good chance it could jump by 6 months.
EB3-I FD will remain same for the first half of the year, then a good chance it could retrogress by 1 year.
ONLY Nov will still use filing date.

1) Predictions based on last 10 yrs of visa bulletin data, where in FAD continue to move(although slowly) after Oct, but FD usually pauses.
2) The FD announced in the Month of Oct is usually an indication of FAD by the year end(or before). Pretty consistent since 2015.

[iamdeb]

My predictions for Nov-2020:
EB2-I FAD will move by 3 months.
EB3-I FAD will move by 4 months.
EB2-I FD will remain same for the first half of the year, then a good chance it could jump by 6 months.
EB3-I FD will remain same for the first half of the year, then a good chance it could retrogress by 1 year.
ONLY Nov will still use filing date.

1) Predictions based on last 10 yrs of visa bulletin data, where in FAD continue to move(although slowly) after Oct, but FD usually pauses.
2) The FD announced in the Month of Oct is usually an indication of FAD by the year end(or before). Pretty consistent since 2015.

Comparing and predicting this years movement with past 5 years is a fallacy.....none of the previous years had around 120K spillover from FB....also there was no pandemic happening in 2015-2019.........except 2016 none of the year was an election year......also never ever were so many downgrades happening......so too many odds to calculate.......

[AlmostThere]

Agree, but the thought process shouldn't change... its just that now it will get speed up.

[Zenzone]

Comparing and predicting this years movement with past 5 years is a fallacy.....none of the previous years had around 120K spillover from FB....also there was no pandemic happening in 2015-2019.........except 2016 none of the year was an election year......also never ever were so many downgrades happening......so too many odds to calculate.......

This is definitely an outlier year so the historic norms and expectations tend to break. I won't be surprised if the EB2 filing dates are moved in Q2 if downgrades are massive. Also, where is the precedent for visa bulletin not being issued until the 28th?

[vsivarama]

This is definitely an outlier year so the historic norms and expectations tend to break. I won't be surprised if the EB2 filing dates are moved in Q2 if downgrades are massive. Also, where is the precedent for visa bulletin not being issued until the 28th?

I would not bet on Eb2 filing dates movement. 90% of the EB2 downgrades will be after the date of May 15, 2011. Not a lot of folks who can file AOS directly will be willing to downgrade or have the support of their company. If my date was before May 15th, I would not have downgraded and put additional scrutiny on my application (with the current admin and constant rule changes).

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Do they keep going back in circle? I was under impression they don't go back again to FB. Those visa # would most likely be lost.

They don't go back and forth in circles.

This may have been covered here but for FB, the FB limit is the maximum of 226000 or (480000 – IR + SO). IR is immediate relatives. So there are very less chances of EB spillover affecting FB and they will likely be wasted.

Maybe someone else can explain it better.

[inspired_p]

You are absolutely inflating the ROW case here. I want to add that context here to balance out your commentary here.

I was thinking the same. But EB3 -ROW includes Philippines , Skorea, Vietnam which were backlogged last year. And the way 7% country limit is determined is based on total visa and not per category ( Spectator explained it very well in a previous post)
So these three countries can avail a lot more visa through EB3 category ( with FB not being available through comsulate) and will eat out a lot of visa from EB3-ROW category .. and in turn will eat out an horizontal spillover to EB3-I. All I am saying that for EB-I , it will not be 30K-35K extra visas... it will be more like 10K-15K

[2001USA]

Now that there are many of us filing I-485 (AOS), does anyone know how USCIS decides to prioritize processing them? Is it FIFO or do they prioritize AOS for those with current FAD?

[gcconnect]

I was thinking the same. But EB3 -ROW includes Philippines , Skorea, Vietnam which were backlogged last year. And the way 7% country limit is determined is based on total visa and not per category ( Spectator explained it very well in a previous post)
So these three countries can avail a lot more visa through EB3 category ( with FB not being available through comsulate) and will eat out a lot of visa from EB3-ROW category .. and in turn will eat out an horizontal spillover to EB3-I. All I am saying that for EB-I , it will not be 30K-35K extra visas... it will be more like 10K-15K

If thats true, how the FD moved to 2015 for EB3I

[tomhagen]

Hang in there, I'm sure all centers are flooded with tons of applications so they're slow.

My employer confirmed that yesterday USCIS encashed the checks for both me and my wife. So hoping to get the receipt number soon.

[iamdeb]

because they wanted more money from us w.r.t filing fees................

[inspired_p]

If thats true, how the FD moved to 2015 for EB3I

Based on estimated demand( which is zero). I am one of the people who have filed in EB3 thinking it is the best case scenario but gurus here have made several post to temper down the expectations. My observations are based on those posts

[Zenzone]

I would not bet on Eb2 filing dates movement. 90% of the EB2 downgrades will be after the date of May 15, 2011. Not a lot of folks who can file AOS directly will be willing to downgrade or have the support of their company. If my date was before May 15th, I would not have downgraded and put additional scrutiny on my application (with the current admin and constant rule changes).

But if ppl. had originally filed in Eb3 and then upgraded to EB2 later they could opt to adjust using the old EB3 petition without having to amend or file new in EB3. That's a less of a risk and I know people who are doing that. Only large companies are strict about this stuff. Good chunk of small and mid-tier companies are much more flexible. The trend line many attorneys are publishing now is that you can file a brand new AOS concurrently with your EB3 I-140 and retain both your Eb2 and EB3 positions in the line. This is why I believe that EB3 FAD will move faster for next 2-3 months but eventually EB2 has to catch-up once the downgrades kick-in and move in tandem (max. 3-4 months difference) in the FAD category. I think the panic filing in EB3 for mid-late 2010 PDs will heat-up once the EB3 FAD crosses spring 2010.

[rocketfast]

A lot of larger companies that I know of is not filing medicals with the application to reduce their workload. This IMO will force USCIS to waste more GCs than they otherwise would have. A RFE from a place like texas service center pretty much means a 3 month delay.

If you observe trackitt approvals for the months of october, it is mostly EB1-I and EB3-I approvals this month with very few EB2-I being approved. All the EB2-I apps are stuck with medical RFEs.

[Zenzone]

A lot of larger companies that I know of is not filing medicals with the application to reduce their workload. This IMO will force USCIS to waste more GCs than they otherwise would have. A RFE from a place like texas service center pretty much means a 3 month delay.

If you observe trackitt approvals for the months of october, it is mostly EB1-I and EB3-I approvals this month with very few EB2-I being approved. All the EB2-I apps are stuck with medical RFEs.

And Why would EB3-I won't have medicals RFEs as such?

[srimurthy]

A lot of larger companies that I know of is not filing medicals with the application to reduce their workload. This IMO will force USCIS to waste more GCs than they otherwise would have. A RFE from a place like texas service center pretty much means a 3 month delay.

If you observe trackitt approvals for the months of october, it is mostly EB1-I and EB3-I approvals this month with very few EB2-I being approved. All the EB2-I apps are stuck with medical RFEs.

What is adding to the workload by adding a Medical. It is a form where the applicant is filling the minimal information and everything else is filled in and closed by the Doctors.
The only thing the lawyers need to do is add that sealed cover to the list of documents being sent. If we scheduled the docs appointment on time, the forms could have been handed over in a 10 days time (most cases) to the lawyers that would be time by which they can all align the paper work.

[AceMan]

The advancement of Filing dates to materialize for this FY, the final action dates have to move drastically in the next 3 bulletins.

Eb2 I should be 1st March 2010 in November bulletin and
Eb3 I should be 1st March 2011

[rabp77]

And Why would EB3-I won't have medicals RFEs as such?

Rocket fast is right.

Reason is most eb3 movement has happened in the last 2 years. So people who filed in eb3 with pd in late 2009/early 2010 still have valid medical with USCIS. With eb2 there is a much higher likelyhoon of the medicals having expired, as many eb2 cases were filed in 2012.

[inspired_p]

I’m not sure what you mean by “all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year”

There isn’t a 7% limit for the category “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” (sometimes called ROW).

ROW refers to over 200 individual Countries, each of which has their own 7% limit.

If one (or more) of those Countries reaches their 7% limit, then they will be shown separately in the VB with their own Cut Off Dates.

ROW will retrogress in a category when the overall demand is more than overall visas available for that category in the FY.

If overall demand for ROW is less than the number of visas available to them, then horizontal spillover will occur.

As someone else has mentioned, the 7% allocation does not necessarily mean exact prorated numbers in each category.

The 7% figure is calculated based on the total EB & FB allocations
e.g. (271,500 + 226,000) * 7% = 34,825.

Lower use elsewhere can allow more use in a category, so long as total use across all categories (both EB & FB) does not exceed the total 7% figure.

You can't make the blanket statement of "those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year" because it doesn't quite work like that.

Only a handful of Countries even approach 7% overall use.

This is why EB3-ROW will consume a lot more than expected

[gcconnect]

The advancement of Filing dates to materialize for this FY, the final action dates have to move drastically in the next 3 bulletins.

Eb2 I should be 1st March 2010 in November bulletin and
Eb3 I should be 1st March 2011

WOW. They may go like 2 to 3 months rather than one big jump for Final action dates.

[vsivarama]

This is why EB3-ROW will consume a lot more than expected

A lot of usage by Philippines, S. Korea etc. will be offset by low demand in EB3-ROW. I would keep an eye out on the perm applications being filed over the last few months as more and more companies are unwilling to commit long term with recession staring them right in the face.

[inspired_p]

They don't go back and forth in circles.

This may have been covered here but for FB, the FB limit is the maximum of 226000 or (480000 – IR + SO). IR is immediate relatives. So there are very less chances of EB spillover affecting FB and they will likely be wasted.

Maybe someone else can explain it better.

Unfortunately I am not able to find the source anymore for this. If someone has a credible information on this I would love to be wrong. But what I understood , every year the spillover moves from FB-EB and EB-FB ( only USCIS knows why ) . So if EB visa allotment of 261K is not reached this year the balance will go to FB as a spillover next year. Normally EB to FB spillover rarely happens as EB always comsumes 140K ( sometimes a couple thousand more even)

[rocketfast]

For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=64819&viewfull=1#post64819

[gcconnect]

For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=64819&viewfull=1#post64819

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.

To my understanding only unallocated FB visas can flow to EB, not unallocated EBs which already went to FB. I will look for a source for that.

[rocketfast]

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.

The point that post is making is that, unused EBs don't make a change in total allocation numbers in FB. So for all practical purposes, total FB allocation is 226,000.

[2011Feb]

No... waiting.... Mine was sent on Oct 1st. Still waiting for receipt.
Mine is EB3 Feb 2011.

Received my receipts today. (sent on Oct 1st)

[2001USA]

Now that there are many of us filing I-485 (AOS), does anyone know how USCIS decides to prioritize processing them? Is it FIFO or do they prioritize AOS based on applicants with current FAD?

[inspired_p]

Received my receipts today. (sent on Oct 1st)

Congratulations.. how many days after the check clearing did they send you the notice if I may ask?
Currently the only indicator that I have for acceptance is that the checks have cleared.

[Moveon]

What is adding to the workload by adding a Medical. It is a form where the applicant is filling the minimal information and everything else is filled in and closed by the Doctors.
The only thing the lawyers need to do is add that sealed cover to the list of documents being sent. If we scheduled the docs appointment on time, the forms could have been handed over in a 10 days time (most cases) to the lawyers that would be time by which they can all align the paper work.

I would look at it the other way , If everyone were to send their Medicals then there will be further delays . If its not mandatory to send a doc to the USCIS then you might as well wait as sending more info delays things .
Honestly they need the Medicals only when the Final Action dates get closer and I hope they ask for them only when Final action dates are close by as Medicals can anywhere between 500-1000 dollars today . For a family of 4 that will be 4K and most companies don't pay for dependents .
In 2012 I paid $250 , in 2018 it was $550 , just for the doc to sign a few pages . My friend paid 950 last month in the Bay area.

[AceMan]

WOW. They may go like 2 to 3 months rather than one big jump for Final action dates.

2-3 months of forward movement will not ensure effective utilization of the available visas.
Eb2 has a nearly 10,000 with pending 485 for the last 8 years.

Lot of Eb3 applicants from 2009 end are already getting greened. There are no new applicants for Eb1, and 2 from ROW to use any of these numbers 3 will have limited demand that can be covered within a month or 2

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

2-3 months of forward movement will not ensure effective utilization of the available visas.
Eb2 has a nearly 10,000 with pending 485 for the last 8 years.

Lot of Eb3 applicants from 2009 end are already getting greened. There are no new applicants for Eb1, and 2 from ROW to use any of these numbers 3 will have limited demand that can be covered within a month or 2

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.

[inspired_p]

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.

This is provided USCIS/DOS does not want to keep visa numbers available for Consulate applications starting Jan 2021. If Consulates open on Jan 2021 then EB2- ROW & EB3-ROW which is current can receive more applications from outside the country. I believe they will keep some buffer for that possibility and will not move EB2-I and EB3-I on the basis of the demand vs visa availability seen currently

[incredible]

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.

Seems to be in-line with my attorney's prediction that EB2 FAD will go forward by close to 6 + months. Let's hope so.

[Zenzone]

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.

To me for Eb2-I, May-2010 is an important watermark as cases until then should be largely pre-adjudicated and good to go with a click.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

This is provided USCIS/DOS does not want to keep visa numbers available for Consulate applications starting Jan 2021. If Consulates open on Jan 2021 then EB2- ROW & EB3-ROW which is current can receive more applications from outside the country. I believe they will keep some buffer for that possibility and will not move EB2-I and EB3-I on the basis of the demand vs visa availability seen currently

Consular applications are going to be so hard to predict compared to AOS because of Covid. Worldwide cases are only ramping up now so I don't know what will prompt them to open up consulates.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[chhablsa]

To me for Eb2-I, May-2010 is an important watermark as cases until then should be largely pre-adjudicated and good to go with a click.

Could it be possible (wishful thinking) that they assigned visa number from last years lot ( so they don't go waste) and just advancing dates based on the assessment of work load they can manage due to COVID? In in November VB we may see a big jump, again wishful thinking...:)

[Zenzone]

Could it be possible (wishful thinking) that they assigned visa number from last years lot ( so they don't go waste) and just advancing dates based on the assessment of work load they can manage due to COVID? In in November VB we may see a big jump, again wishful thinking...:)

I think the numbers are there this fiscal, its all about USCIS having a strategy on how to allocate them and when to do it. EB2-I cases until May-2010 are clearly the low hanging fruits that can be cleared off right away. Also, remember that interviews could be waived too for many straightforward cases due to COVID. All in all, if you have a PD within the the first half of 2010 I would say you are sitting pretty and could even get greened by the Q1 of this fiscal. By then, the pipeline for H2 of 2010 should begin taking shape too. Also, if JB wins there is a possibility that the interviews for EB GC might be made optional based on case by case. Those are the tailwinds I see that could reduce the wastage of visas by a large extent. We all know what the headwinds are so tried pointing out the brighter side possibilities here.

[AceMan]

It is really astonishing that the November bulletin is not yet released on October 28th.

[Zenzone]

It is really astonishing that the November bulletin is not yet released on October 28th.

That tells me that the filing dates will be kept the same with USCIS continuing to honor them. The delay is really not a big impact then as there are no net new cases that need to be prepared and not a lot of surprise value to it as opposed to what we saw last month.

[vsivarama]

It is really astonishing that the November bulletin is not yet released on October 28th.

I don't think you should be astonished by anything this admin throws at you. I would not be astonished if they decided to release Nov visa bulletin in Dec. Remember when a few folks got H1 approvals with backdated dates?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If they integrate HK into the Mainland China quota for immigration purposes, they may need to carefully word that in the bulletin because trust me, lawsuits are going to be filed. It will be a fiasco if a lawsuit is filed and they have to reissue the bulletin with thousands of people already applying in the meantime. I don't think it's going to alter the numbers, but the language in the bulletin subtext could be what they are sweating out about.

[2011Feb]

No... waiting.... Mine was sent on Oct 1st. Still waiting for receipt.
Mine is EB3 Feb 2011.


Congratulations.. how many days after the check clearing did they send you the notice if I may ask?
Currently the only indicator that I have for acceptance is that the checks have cleared.

checks were cleared on 21st. So it took a week to receive the receipt after checks en cashed.

[AceMan]

That tells me that the filing dates will be kept the same with USCIS continuing to honor them. The delay is really not a big impact then as there are no net new cases that need to be prepared and not a lot of surprise value to it as opposed to what we saw last month.

The possibility of not supporting filing dates any more for the month of November?

[richie.rich]

If they integrate HK into the Mainland China quota for immigration purposes, they may need to carefully word that in the bulletin because trust me, lawsuits are going to be filed. It will be a fiasco if a lawsuit is filed and they have to reissue the bulletin with thousands of people already applying in the meantime. I don't think it's going to alter the numbers, but the language in the bulletin subtext could be what they are sweating out about.

I have a feeling that they want to wait till last minute. If they release early, Applicants will start or stop downgrading. If they release the dates tomorrow evening or Friday, flow will be normal.

[Zenzone]

The possibility of not supporting filing dates any more for the month of November?

I think USCIS will keep the filing dates and honor them in November. After all, why not for more fees when they already let ppl. apply for the 485 and associated benefits by filing in October? I don't see any practical incentive for them to stop it now. I won't be surprised if they honor filing dates in December too. However, I will be surprised if they further advance filing dates within Q1 though.

[Zenzone]

I have a feeling that they want to wait till last minute. If they release early, Applicants will start or stop downgrading. If they release the dates tomorrow evening or Friday, flow will be normal.

They clearly said this delay isn't because of the EB visa issues instead its about some language about Hong Kong and its legalities. So not sure why we still keep speculating about it.

[inspired_p]

They clearly said this delay isn't because of the EB visa issues instead its about some language about Hong Kong and its legalities. So not sure why we still keep speculating about it.

Noone has clearly states anything.. even the HK language reason is speculation. Anyways.. what else do we have other than speculating delay of visa bulletin ? Life ? Ha ha

[Moveon]

To me for Eb2-I, May-2010 is an important watermark as cases until then should be largely pre-adjudicated and good to go with a click.

how much in advance does USCIS send RFEs for the Final Action dates ? I am Dec 2009 and have not received any RFEs.
Do they need the dates to be current before sending the RFEs ?

[rabp77]

They clearly said this delay isn't because of the EB visa issues instead its about some language about Hong Kong and its legalities. So not sure why we still keep speculating about it.

Zenzone, AILA statement as I read it referred to a generic dispute with language. It did not specifically say it was with regard to HK. HK Eo was passed in July. What the language dispute was about is still not completely certain, right ? Did I miss something?

[Zenzone]

Noone has clearly states anything.. even the HK language reason is speculation. Anyways.. what else do we have other than speculating delay of visa bulletin ? Life ? Ha ha

Haha peace!

[inspired_p]

checks were cleared on 21st. So it took a week to receive the receipt after checks en cashed.

Thank you !

[iamdeb]

Just digressing away from the politics....which educational firm/agency's services do you guys recommend for Foreign Academic Equivalency Evaluation...Thanks!

[gcconnect]

Cliffs Notes from Siskind's FB video chat:

I-485 filing: Apps HAVE to be in USCIS on Oct 30 or may be rejected

Visa Bulletin Notes:

Siskind thinks pure EB3 India will use up most of the numbers (i.e. those who filed in EB3 and stayed in that queue)


Why is pure EB3 people getting more . Is this not in the order of PD. I mean whether its downgraded to EB3 or EB3 from the beginning, they should follow the PD . Am i missing something?

[inspired_p]

Why is pure EB3 people getting more . Is this not in the order of PD. I mean whether its downgraded to EB3 or EB3 from the beginning, they should follow the PD . Am i missing something?
I guess because for ‘pure’ EB3 the I-140 is approved in Oct 2020 ; all downgrades are assumed to be applied now in regular processing .
In practice downgraded EB3 already approved would be the same as ‘pure’ EB3

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Why is pure EB3 people getting more . Is this not in the order of PD. I mean whether its downgraded to EB3 or EB3 from the beginning, they should follow the PD . Am i missing something?

Sorry, not sure what he meant by that. So may need to do some digging into that.

Probably gonna be out for a couple of days to protect the house and land from the hurricane. Definitely going to lose a few trees ;-).

[Prabhas]

Just digressing away from the politics....which educational firm/agency's services do you guys recommend for Foreign Academic Equivalency Evaluation...Thanks!


Please try them...$85 for evaluation. You should get it two business days.

https://morningeval.com/

V

[monsieur]

Why is pure EB3 people getting more . Is this not in the order of PD. I mean whether its downgraded to EB3 or EB3 from the beginning, they should follow the PD . Am i missing something?

No body is getting less or more. Its about whose file is in order. They pick up files based on PD, if it has all docs 485J, valid medical etc then that person's file get approved. If its missing anything then RFE is sent. This gives an appearance that GC is being approved without any order.

[GCMirage]

Nov bulletin is out.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

Final action dates Movement for India
Eb2 3 weeks, eb3 2 months

No change in Filing dates

[inspired_p]

Nov bulletin is out.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

Final action dates Movement for India
Eb2 3 weeks, eb3 2 months

No change in Filing dates
Disappointing.. to say the least. At least no harm done.

[GCMirage]

No communication yet from USCIS on Nov bulletin. Hopefully they will continue to honor the filing dates

[idliman]

Final action dates Movement for India
Eb2 3 weeks, eb3 2 months
No change in Filing dates
Looks like they did talk to S.Miller @ COVID ward. DF movements did not progress, following the past trend.

These movements are based on hitting the 5.2K quota for EB2I / EB3I. They agree with earlier predictions. CO is very conservative and looks like he does not want to move beyond the 5.2K numbers. A little disappointing that "rapid forward movement" is less than 1 month for EB2I.

With this rate of movement, people with PDs before Mar 2010 of EB2I may save atleast 6 months if they have readily available EB3I I-140. Once EB2I to EB3I porters or clean EB3I approvals hit the 5.2K, EB3I FA movements will stop or retrogress (before the Hail-Mary SO is applied in the last quarter).

Additional thoughts:


I want to see if CO will change his mindset and start proactively moving dates if there is a Nov upset and JB wins.
Anyone who has a chance of downgrading and getting their EAD/AP's should seriously do it without any second thoughts.
Even if some non-India consulates open in Jan 2021, that will start cutting into EB3I forward movements. Don't know how much of flood will materialize when Indian consulates open. For EB2I, the CP numbers should be balanced by people using EB3I I-140s. So EB2I should not retrogress at all.

[mesan123]

Looks like USCIs is also accepting the filling dates.. breather for few folks whose law firms still didnot send applications

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-to-file-your-adjustment-of-status-application-for-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-57

[inspired_p]

I really thought but hoped not that this would be the case.
They will keep the visa numbers available to EB3-ROW as long as they can and hope that consular processing picks up. The horizontal spillover if any will be applied at the end of the year.

Th filing dates Being open to use are a relief definitely but does that mean they have not received 5.2K EB3-I applications yet ?

[goracer]

Looks like VB is out...22sep09 eb2
01mar10 eb3

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

[AceMan]

We now got the definition for rapid forward movement. 21 days for Eb2 I and 44 days for Eb3 I.

[idliman]

We now got the definition for rapid forward movement. 21 days for Eb2 I and 44 days for Eb3 I.
Ace, you did not like down-porting based on my past recollection. Have you already started making your move to EB3?

[EB2IndSep09]

Looks like USCIs is also accepting the filling dates.. breather for few folks whose law firms still didnot send applications

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-to-file-your-adjustment-of-status-application-for-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-57

And or people who are switching jobs also get a fair shot of applying AOS.

[mesan123]

And or people who are switching jobs also get a fair shot of applying AOS. that i dont know as switching jobs you might need to start from Perm stage..

[longwaitgigu]

that i dont know as switching jobs you might need to start from Perm stage..

Why I dont see bulletin on visa bulletin page?

[usvisas]

My guesstimate (hope it actually is much much better than this)

EB2 FAD will move by 2 months at the most (01NOV09) .
EB3 FAD will move to 30APR2010 at least.
EB2 FD will remain same
EB3 FD will remain same
Nov will still use filing date.


Not even close.. But guess I was the closest predictor...where is my prize ....lol

I guess - its inventory building until Q1.

[EB2IndSep09]

Why I dont see bulletin on visa bulletin page?

Some people were having issues especially who were refreshing many times from past week or so :)
Jokes apart, try with clearing cache.

[AlmostThere]

Feels like attorneys messed it up.
IF they would have filed the applications last week THEN DOS would have known about the "real demand" AND would have moved the date much aggresively.
But probably Now DOS is moving extremely conservatively.

My attorney and several other attorneys have waited till last day to start working on applications.

Again, speculating here... nothing seems true in these times.

[AceMan]

Ace, you did not like down-porting based on my past recollection. Have you already started making your move to EB3?

I never upgraded to Eb2 when I was eligible to do so in 2016 after doing my research. I was telling my Colleague who had upgraded to Eb2 that time not to do that, but the obsession of Eb2 just blinded him and many others till 2018..

Now when I see these people running back to downgrade to Eb3 I really feel pity for them. I can understand people downgrading to get EAD, but some greedy people who can file 485 in Eb2 before May 2011 trying to clog Eb3 claiming child age out and other stories.

[EB2IndSep09]

that i dont know as switching jobs you might need to start from Perm stage..

Someone switched job a year back, and PERM is going to be approved in November 2020 I meant this group of people are going to get a fair shot. Hope it makes sense.

[mesan123]

Why I dont see bulletin on visa bulletin page?


https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

[mesan123]

Someone switched job a year back, and PERM is going to be approved in November 2020 I meant this group of people are going to get a fair shot. Hope it makes sense. it does :) was confused with your initial post ..

[EB2IndSep09]

Feels like attorneys messed it up.
IF they would have filed the applications last week THEN DOS would have known about the "real demand" AND would have moved the date much aggresively.
But probably Now DOS is moving extremely conservatively.

My attorney and several other attorneys have waited till last day to start working on applications.

Again, speculating here... nothing seems true in these times.

Same here, my attorney is going to send the file tonight. It is a deliberate act from law firms especially the big ones with large volumes to keep the DOS and USCIS in dark.
I might be wrong.

[EB2IndSep09]

it does :) was confused with your initial post ..

Speaking with personal experience missed the boat in 2012 by couple of months due to the same reason and had to wait for 81/2 years to file AOS.
Or else would have received cards in Nov 2020 and now I am here still trying to push the attorney's to send the file out this month. :)

[mesan123]

I never upgraded to Eb2 when I was eligible to do so in 2016 after doing my research. I was telling my Colleague who had upgraded to Eb2 that time not to do that, but the obsession of Eb2 just blinded him and many others till 2018..

Now when I see these people running back to downgrade to Eb3 I really feel pity for them. I can understand people downgrading to get EAD, but some greedy people who can file 485 in Eb2 before May 2011 trying to clog Eb3 claiming child age out and other stories.

Just my 2 cents.. each one’s personal situations vary.. there might be genunity too.. so people will do what is best for each case.. this movement now was not guessed before this was because of covid.. this movement helped many familes

Yes EAD helps many people as it gives them another path to survive with the recent H1b changes ..

[mesan123]

Speaking with personal experience missed the boat in 2012 by couple of months due to the same reason and had to wait for 81/2 years to file AOS.
Or else would have received cards in Nov 2020 and now I am here still trying to push the attorney's to send the file out this month. :)

Sorry to hear that... hang in there... similar situation i missed the boat by moving jobs as my perm was pending for more than 10 months and took FT .. guess what it got approved after i moved nd could not file I-140 as moved the company(so missed ealry 2010 date which could have helped me get EAD in 2012) ... yes pretty long wait.. my file sent on 21st.. hoping your lawyer files your case soon

[kb2013]

My FAD has been current this month. But I haven't gotten approval yet. It will be current next month as well. Any suggestions on how to get USCIS to work on my case and have it approved quick?

[gcconnect]

Not even close.. But guess I was the closest predictor...where is my prize ....lol

I guess - its inventory building until Q1.

predictions now with November VB might change . They have inventory available for EB2 till May 2010. Searching for Rapid movement definition:confused:

[vsivarama]

I never upgraded to Eb2 when I was eligible to do so in 2016 after doing my research. I was telling my Colleague who had upgraded to Eb2 that time not to do that, but the obsession of Eb2 just blinded him and many others till 2018..

Now when I see these people running back to downgrade to Eb3 I really feel pity for them. I can understand people downgrading to get EAD, but some greedy people who can file 485 in Eb2 before May 2011 trying to clog Eb3 claiming child age out and other stories.

Child ageout is a genuine reason to downgrade the application. The number of days i-140 is being processed will be deducted from the child's age in addition to the possibility of getting GC earlier. But the rest who can file straight in EB2 need to be careful. It's a risk vs reward situation. Yes EB2 does not seem to be moving for now, but that will pick up next year. Basically it comes down to this, how much risk are you willing to introduce to your application to get GC a few months faster? I am NOT trying to scare anyone here. I for one was fully supportive of people upgrading to EB2 back in the day even though it meant my EB2 application queue would have clogged up. My rationality is simple "What if the shoe was on other foot, then how would I react?". Upgrade made sense back then and downgrade makes sense now in certain situations.

[letmesee]

I never upgraded to Eb2 when I was eligible to do so in 2016 after doing my research. I was telling my Colleague who had upgraded to Eb2 that time not to do that, but the obsession of Eb2 just blinded him and many others till 2018..

Now when I see these people running back to downgrade to Eb3 I really feel pity for them. I can understand people downgrading to get EAD, but some greedy people who can file 485 in Eb2 before May 2011 trying to clog Eb3 claiming child age out and other stories.

what's wrong in downgrading now... folks gotta do what's good for them since everything is uncertain...
good call on your part on not down grading :)

[inspired_p]

Time to start speculating December 2020 bulletin.

[AceMan]

Just my 2 cents.. each one’s personal situations vary.. there might be genunity too.. so people will do what is best for each case.. this movement now was not guessed before this was because of covid.. this movement helped many familes

Yes EAD helps many people as it gives them another path to survive with the recent H1b changes ..

People who downgraded to get EAD when they could have applied and got EAD without downgrading is the group I am referring to.

For example, Eb3 final dates moved to March 1st 2010. A person with Eb2 petition on Feb 2010 with AOS pending decided to downgrade and interfile s what I am referring to. It is absolutely legit, can get the GC faster if the dates did not retrogress, but with the experience for last 2 years, all it does is mess up Eb3 movement and no advantage to Eb2.

[inspired_p]

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.

[inspired_p]

I too didn’t have any issues with upgrade before and I do not have any issue with downgrades either. It all depends on individual risk assessment. Any legal recourse should not be frowned upon.Most people stay on H1B even after getting EAD ; so that advantage is not what most people are looking for; they want to get greened as soon as possible.
And personally having wasted 6-7 months in applying Initial PERM/ I-140 and seeing my wait increased by 10 years because of that ; I can totally get the desire to do whatever is possible to reduce the time for green card even if it’s 6-7 months only. 6-7 months are more than enough to turn the world upside down if unlucky

[incredible]

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.

Seems to have went back to Coming Soon

[incredible]

Seems to have went back to Coming Soon

Never mind. probably cached.

[pdc2014]

261k/12 months=21,791 for each month, subdivided into each EB category using 7% country quota.

EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If uscis intent is righ,150k out of 261k will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around May2011 and Sep2011 respectively by Sep 2021.

[pdc2014]

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.

261k/12 months=21,791 for each month, subdivided into each EB category using 7% country quota.

EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around May2011 and Sep2011 respectively by Sep 2021.

[Umesh1209]

Never mind. probably cached.

Visa Bulletin is release - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

EB2 FAD 22-Sep
EC3 FAD 01MAR10

[abcx13]

Visa Bulletin is release - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

EB2 FAD 22-Sep
EC3 FAD 01MAR10

Looks like USCIS allowing usage of FD again. :)

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/adjustment-of-status-filing-charts-from-the-visa-bulletin

[idliman]

Some people were having issues especially who were refreshing many times from past week or so :)
Jokes apart, try with clearing cache.
EB2IndSep09, I am glad to see that you are not showing your disappointment for missing FA by a few days. So "rapid movement" is 3 weeks for EB2I. The prediction in Oct VB is valid for the first quarter. So the best case scenario can we expect EB2I to be:
Dec Bulletin: 13OCT2009
Jan Bulletin: 03NOV2009

I guess EB3I will be moving at 1.5 months per bulletin and will be 01JUN2010 in Jan bulletin.

All those people supporting DT for the second term, do you really think the SO from FB to EB is going to result in GCs? With the current speed they are on course to waste a record number of GCs. I was hoping that JB presidency will use most of the SO visas. However, it is just a hypothesis. I am just imagining that the grass is greener on the other side. It may just be weeds. (sarcasm)!

[Zenzone]

EB2IndSep09, I am glad to see that you are not showing your disappointment for missing FA by a few days. So "rapid movement" is 3 weeks for EB2I. The prediction in Oct VB is valid for the first quarter. So the best case scenario can we expect EB2I to be:
Dec Bulletin: 13OCT2009
Jan Bulletin: 03NOV2009

I guess EB3I will be moving at 1.5 months per bulletin and will be 01JUN2010 in Jan bulletin.

All those people supporting DT for the second term, do you really think the SO from FB to EB is going to result in GCs? With the current speed they are on course to waste a record number of GCs. I was hoping that JB presidency will use most of the SO visas. However, it is just a hypothesis. I am just imagining that the grass is greener on the other side. It may just be weeds. (sarcasm)!

I won't assume it will only be 3 weeks per bulletin from now on. I do think the pace of this movement will pick-up steam eventually by all means. No way, they honor filing dates this far without that expected to happen. Not this admin.!

[Zenzone]

Looks like USCIS allowing usage of FD again. :)

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/adjustment-of-status-filing-charts-from-the-visa-bulletin

Much needed. Hopefully they honor it next month too.

[Zenzone]

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.

I'm in your camp on this one.

[longwaitgigu]

We all should not forget
VB was set as of oct 12, so they definitely have no clue how many applications in eb2 and eb3
I guess December should see good forward movement and also they have to use 65000 gc per quarter

[vedu]

EB2IndSep09, I am glad to see that you are not showing your disappointment for missing FA by a few days. So "rapid movement" is 3 weeks for EB2I. The prediction in Oct VB is valid for the first quarter. So the best case scenario can we expect EB2I to be:
Dec Bulletin: 13OCT2009
Jan Bulletin: 03NOV2009

I guess EB3I will be moving at 1.5 months per bulletin and will be 01JUN2010 in Jan bulletin.

All those people supporting DT for the second term, do you really think the SO from FB to EB is going to result in GCs? With the current speed they are on course to waste a record number of GCs. I was hoping that JB presidency will use most of the SO visas. However, it is just a hypothesis. I am just imagining that the grass is greener on the other side. It may just be weeds. (sarcasm)!

Idliman,

This is a gem of a post! You have outlined very realistic scenarios for Dec and Jan Bulletins. And also, very balanced view of your expectation from a different immigration friendly administration with full understanding that it may just remain a dream. Let's just hope and pray that future is better than the past.

[getsaby]

I was about to reply to that, the bulletin was materialized on October 12 as mention in the footnote, wonder why they held up for almost 2 weeks.

Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: October 12, 2020


Even for the last bulletin, they did this

Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: September 8, 2020

[2011Feb]

Friends,

Anyone have a metrics (only guesstimate based on previous years number) about EB3 India counselor processing demand for 2009 (June to December) and 2010.
Just curious to know , how the consulate open will impact the final action date for EB3 India. Does it make EB3I to retro-gate ?

[inspired_p]

I won't assume it will only be 3 weeks per bulletin from now on. I do think the pace of this movement will pick-up steam eventually by all means. No way, they honor filing dates this far without that expected to happen. Not this admin.!

I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries

[Zenzone]

I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries

I need more data to believe in this hypothesis. Remember in September some of us were certain that this administration will NOT let ppl. to even file so much in advance and here we are! Therefore, I need a trend line of at east 4-6 month through this Fiscal to comment on the visa wastage. Right now all I see is so much uncertainty and variability with a potential of an admin. change that could be imminent. Its anybody's guess right now. Depending on whether you are a glass half full or empty person you can be living either in a false exuberance or an imminent doom world of yours.

[rabp77]

I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries

I don't think I would jump to that conclusion. At least not yet. By accepting a large number of applicants, the stage is set to approve them quickly in case visa numbers are available at the end of fy, and all processing has been completed. Slow movement initially doesn't mean it will continue to be so for the rest of fy. In the past, pace of movement has been accelerated during the fy at times. I think there is a good probability that eb2 movement can get much faster than 3weeks per month that we saw in November.

[EB2IndSep09]

EB2IndSep09, I am glad to see that you are not showing your disappointment for missing FA by a few days. So "rapid movement" is 3 weeks for EB2I. The prediction in Oct VB is valid for the first quarter. So the best case scenario can we expect EB2I to be:
Dec Bulletin: 13OCT2009
Jan Bulletin: 03NOV2009

I guess EB3I will be moving at 1.5 months per bulletin and will be 01JUN2010 in Jan bulletin.

All those people supporting DT for the second term, do you really think the SO from FB to EB is going to result in GCs? With the current speed they are on course to waste a record number of GCs. I was hoping that JB presidency will use most of the SO visas. However, it is just a hypothesis. I am just imagining that the grass is greener on the other side. It may just be weeds. (sarcasm)!

Idliman,
I am glad that I would be able to file my AOS in Oct 2020 after a long wait so no room for disappointment. Hope my lawyer sends my AOS file tonight fingers crossed.
My perspective on rapid movement is different, may be once we go back and compare to 2018 and 2019 visa bulletins, it is a rapid movement as the dates were crawling one day or two days or none bulletin to bulletin

[bookworm]

I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries

Occams Razor - These are Federal Govt employees who will work like a sloth. They just dont have the processing capacity (and willingness) to move things quickly. Anecdotal evidence is the amount of time it is taking to send out receipts for new filings. If you start seeing a spurt in Card Mailed on Trackitt it will be the forward indicator that dates will move "rapidly" in subsequent VB. Till then keep refreshing the visa bulletin page:(

[suninphx]

Spec,

Is there any technical reason for this sluggish FAD movement in EB2-3I categories? I am aware of 'other' possible reasons.

[AceMan]

One interesting thing I have noticed is Eb1 India FAD moved 6 months. If it can maintain same speed for next couple of bulletins, we can expect it to be current by the end of 2nd quarter and Eb2 can see some long awaited spillover in the April 2021 bulletin.

Hopefully by that time Eb2 reaches possibly March 2010 and the spillover can propel the dates to December 2010.

If the Eb3 final dates did not reach that date by then, 3rd quarter of 2021 is going to be fun.

Oh btw I am expecting Biden to win and the Trump EO for EB interviews might be gone. It may result in the GC allocation faster.

[texas_]

Since there is no USCIS final action date mentioned, what is the Final Action Date for November 2020 for EB2 India and EB3 India ?

[suninphx]

Oh btw I am expecting Biden to win and the Trump EO for EB interviews might be gone. It may result in the GC allocation faster.

That election outcome might result in a push for FB immigration.

[vsivarama]

That election outcome might result in a push for FB immigration.

That is true. But the push mainly will be to allocate additional visas to FB by recapturing unused visa numbers. There were already quite a few bills going around which would help the doctors/essential works by granting them GCs this way. So I would not worry about FB. Dems would be shooting themselves in the foot if they touch the SO visas to EB. Politicians may be useless but not stupid.

[vedu]

Spec,

Is there any technical reason for this sluggish FAD movement in EB2-3I categories? I am aware of 'other' possible reasons.

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)

[suninphx]

Dems would be shooting themselves in the foot if they touch the SO visas to EB. Politicians may be useless but not stupid.

Not sure ! I have seen people being dems before getting GC and moving to red camp the day GC arrives :)

[suninphx]

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)

Vedu, this Is what I am thinking as well. Let's wait for Spec's realistic answer ( if he chooses to reply that is).

[Moveon]

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?

[pdc2014]

261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.

Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.

When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.

EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.

[pdc2014]

SO calculations/ predictions
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.

Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.

When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.

EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.

[pdc2014]

SO calculations/ predictions
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.

Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.

When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.

EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.

[AceMan]

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?

The only rapid movement for India was EB1. June 2018 inventory shows 1006 pending 485 EB2 I applications for September 2009. It appears to follow the pattern of processing around 700 applicants this bulletin instead of around 1700 processed for India in October. We have about 8000 more applicants in EB2 till May 2010 and if they average around 1000 a month it takes till the end of 3rd quarter to clear May 2010.

The good movement for Eb2 I in later half of 2021 needs EB1 India to clear within next 2-3 bulletins, COVID situation ensures the travel ban continue for another quarter. The downgrade to EB3 will make an impact only for Eb2 applicants beyond May 2011.

[Zenzone]

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?

I don't understand your extreme pessimism here. The filing dates were never moved this aggressively in the past decade. This is already unprecedented, I would give a couple more months before doom scrolling here.

[Zenzone]

The only rapid movement for India was EB1. June 2018 inventory shows 1006 pending 485 EB2 I applications for September 2009. It appears to follow the pattern of processing around 700 applicants this bulletin instead of around 1700 processed for India in October. We have about 8000 more applicants in EB2 till May 2010 and if they average around 1000 a month it takes till the end of 3rd quarter to clear May 2010.

The good movement for Eb2 I in later half of 2021 needs EB1 India to clear within next 2-3 bulletins, COVID situation ensures the travel ban continue for another quarter. The downgrade to EB3 will make an impact only for Eb2 applicants beyond May 2011.

Downgrades will happen across the board as and when EB3 FAD starts chugging forward regardless of the PD ranges.

[Zenzone]

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)

That's not a rule. Its been a general practice with exceptions.

[Zenzone]

One interesting thing I have noticed is Eb1 India FAD moved 6 months. If it can maintain same speed for next couple of bulletins, we can expect it to be current by the end of 2nd quarter and Eb2 can see some long awaited spillover in the April 2021 bulletin.

Hopefully by that time Eb2 reaches possibly March 2010 and the spillover can propel the dates to December 2010.

If the Eb3 final dates did not reach that date by then, 3rd quarter of 2021 is going to be fun.

Oh btw I am expecting Biden to win and the Trump EO for EB interviews might be gone. It may result in the GC allocation faster.

All fair points and by mid 2021 lotsa Q1 filers (like us) would be mostly done with admin. processing of adjudications and could be click away when the visas become available (assuming no interviews by then). Obviously painting an optimistic scenario here.

[vsivarama]

Not sure ! I have seen people being dems before getting GC and moving to red camp the day GC arrives :)

Yes, you are right and I have seen those people. I do not see things as D's vs R's issues. That's why I commend the old timers in this group like Q, Spec and others who are principled and consistent on issues (immigration here). And just because people flip from D to R does NOT necessarily mean they are anti-immigrant. It just means some other issue has taken up no 1 priority in their life since they do not have to worry about immigration anymore. There are plenty of issues in the world and frankly to a third party, they are all more important than someone's immigration status. But to most people in this forum immigration is probably one of the top priorities. Does that make us bad people? I don't think so.

[vsivarama]

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?

Your argument might have merit when it comes to EB2 as most of the cases are prejudicated. As far as EB3 is concerned, People from May, 2010 just applied for 485 this month. So it does not really matter if the FAD moves past May 2010, No one is getting greened in a month of applying 485. Not throwing in the towel yet.

[AceMan]

All fair points and by mid 2021 lotsa Q1 filers (like us) would be mostly done with admin. processing of adjudications and could be click away when the visas become available (assuming no interviews by then). Obviously painting an optimistic scenario here.

2009 might have little over 4000 applicants remaining.

2010 has little over 22,500 approved 140’s from India. If if you take the most optimistic count the total numbers for 2010 from India is not going to be less than 30,000.

Under one month movement for Eb2 and 1 and half month movement for Eb3 is way below the par rate for 2021. We got 10 more months to see if things speed up by 2nd quarter.

[delguy]

I don't understand your extreme pessimism here. The filing dates were never moved this aggressively in the past decade. This is already unprecedented, I would give a couple more months before doom scrolling here.

Most likely the Filing Dates moved because uscis need money to survive plus they have planned fee increase for adjustment applications to go in effect from Oct 2 which got striked by a court on Sep 30th. So to me this was simply an exercise to mop up money. The way FADs didnt move as per the Spillover from FB is an indication that they still prefer to waste visas than issue them to backlogged countries.

[vedu]

That's not a rule. Its been a general practice with exceptions.

So far, I didn't see any exceptions to general practice this year. Hope things change in the second quarter for everybody's benefit. Until then, I would like to stick with the most conservative scenario and not be disappointed afterwards. Some of this optimism/pessimism also springs from the fact that people on this forum who filed their I-485 recently are in a different state of mind (happy, so optimistic) than other people like us who have filed our I-485 ten years ago (sad, so pessimistic)!

[vsivarama]

Most likely the Filing Dates moved because uscis need money to survive plus they have planned fee increase for adjustment applications to go in effect from Oct 2 which got striked by a court on Sep 30th. So to me this was simply an exercise to mop up money. The way FADs didnt move as per the Spillover from FB is an indication that they still prefer to waste visas than issue them to backlogged countries.

Putting things in context here -

Sept 2019 Visa Bulletin EB2 FAD - 01 JUN 2009
Sept 2020 Visa Bulletin EB2 FAD - 08 JUL 2009
Oct 2020 Visa Bulleting EB2 FAD - 01 SEP 2009
Nov 2020 Visa Bulletin EB2 FAD - 22 SEP 2009

Maybe you are right but the stats so far are encouraging.

[suninphx]

Yes, you are right and I have seen those people. I do not see things as D's vs R's issues. That's why I commend the old timers in this group like Q, Spec and others who are principled and consistent on issues (immigration here). And just because people flip from D to R does NOT necessarily mean they are anti-immigrant. It just means some other issue has taken up no 1 priority in their life since they do not have to worry about immigration anymore. There are plenty of issues in the world and frankly to a third party, they are all more important than someone's immigration status. But to most people in this forum immigration is probably one of the top priorities. Does that make us bad people? I don't think so.

Just to be clear, I don't paint people as good or bad people based which political party they belong to. Both parties have some outstanding leaders.I was simply countering your point by saying that dems may not have much to loose if they choose to benefit more on FB side than EB side, as EB people tend to change the political affiliation based on GC situation (this is just my observation and may not be general phenomenon. Neither I am suggesting it's good or bad. It's just a personal choice people make). And I certainly don't think either party is anti-immigration.

[srimurthy]

Hello folks - I am in a strange situation and do not know how things will transpire. I am current in Nov bulletin with EB2I PD Sep 2009. My EAD/AP is going to expire on Dec 12, 2020. Will they be issuing me a new EAP/AP combo card? My DL is going to expire on the same day Dec 12, 2020 and I am not sure how I should proceed. I
am worried that I will have to be off payroll if EAD is not issued on time. Any suggestions?

I guess you don't have to be off payroll as you already applied for EAD extension and after you receive the receipt it can be considered and can continue working.

[srimurthy]

So far, I didn't see any exceptions to general practice this year. Hope things change in the second quarter for everybody's benefit. Until then, I would like to stick with the most conservative scenario and not be disappointed afterwards. Some of this optimism/pessimism also springs from the fact that people on this forum who filed their I-485 recently are in a different state of mind (happy, so optimistic) than other people like us who have filed our I-485 ten years ago (sad, so pessimistic)!

Vedu - I missed the boat in 2012 as my PD is late 2010 (Sep), and I am still pessimistic that anything will materialize in the next one year. Ideally USICS could have left the FADs in Dec 2011 or 2012 to get any idea of the filings for both EB2I and EB3I.
It is ridiculous playing around by moving dates to 2015 without the ability of moving the FADs sufficiently last year. They could not plan and move to Apr'2010 for EB2I and EB3I where most of the applications have been lying in Q for 10 years, so expecting FAD to clear 2011 and get into 2012 this year is plain fantasy.

[idliman]

Well this is an interesting read from Sheela Murthy and other senior attorneys of her law firm.

Why was there so little movement in the November visa bulletin? Is there any chance that the dates will move more in the coming months?AnswerWe are not sure why there was not more movement in the November 2020 Visa Bulletin. Our best guess is that the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) has been receiving a flood of I-485 filings over the past several weeks, and the U.S. Department of State (DOS) – which is in charge of the visa bulletin – is waiting for more data before determining how far to move the cutoff dates. Our hope is that, within the coming months (and perhaps as soon as in next month’s visa bulletin,) the USCIS and the DOS will be able to take stock of the remaining immigrant visa numbers for this fiscal year, and then continue to advance the cutoff dates. In the meantime, we are hoping to hear input from Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the DOS, as to what we should expect from the coming visa bulletins. (29.Oct.2020)



We can sit here analyze the heck out of VB. Surely things are happening that are beyond our control. An indication might be seen in recent interview of S.Miller in NBC for his plans for the 2nd term of his president.

[rabp77]

Congratulations to all who are current in the Nov 2020 VB. Could you please post your updates regarding your case in this google spreadsheet. This will help monitor progress, and answer any questions.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14iEldrpq252TDvuTcSVet6j1EZDK6pSIyE4sxfQdgOw/edit?usp=sharing

[rocketfast]

Congratulations to all who are current in the Nov 2020 VB. Could you please post your updates regarding your case in this google spreadsheet. This will help monitor progress, and answer any questions.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/14iEldrpq252TDvuTcSVet6j1EZDK6pSIyE4sxfQdgOw/edit?usp=sharing

I am curious on why there is a trend of creating google spread-sheets when there is already a trackitt tracker for I-485 applications here:
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/i485-eb

[eb2jun2010]

I got to know yesterday that my company will be acquired in 2 weeks by another company. My pd is June, 2010 eb2 and we sent the 485 package on Oct 20th. I am still waiting for the receipts and hope to get them before the acquisition. Is my 485 in pending status even though I did not receive the receipts?

If the job responsibilities and location remains the same, do we need to amend 140?
What if the company name changes?

I will be reaching out to our existing company attorney to understand my next steps.

Thanks in Advance!

[gaurim17]

Hello gurus,

I have been a lurker on this forum since 2012 when my PD became current for the 1st time. PD is 12/10/2009. Great information here and always love to read the analysis. I was hoping the dates would move closer to my PD in Nov bulletin but unfortunately that has not happened. Still hoping to be current in couple of months. I have a question regarding 485 J. I have not received any RFE since I applied for 485 in feb 2012. I have changed jobs in the last 8 years, applied AC21, etc. Recently I was promoted and the immigration lawyer said that new position is not more than 20% change in duties, so he doesn’t see an issue.

In the past when I have asked the lawyers to apply for 485J, they have asked me to wait for RFE. Given that I am so close to being current and if 485J takes a couple of months to approve, do you all suggest that I insist that the lawyers apply for 485J?

[EB2IndSep09]

Well this is an interesting read from Sheela Murthy and other senior attorneys of her law firm.


We can sit here analyze the heck out of VB. Surely things are happening that are beyond our control. An indication might be seen in recent interview of S.Miller in NBC for his plans for the 2nd term of his president.

Well I agree with your statement Idliman that things are beyond our control.

The answer to me looks biased and this is my take based on experiences of my known associates and me.

The law firm helping my employer and employees did not send the AOS documents till last day possible (the signatures were taken in the middle of this week). And we all hundreds and hundreds of people got confirmation yesterday 10/30 that the files were sent out to USCIS. I heard same story from many of my friends that were dealing with big law firms across the board that the petitions were not sent out up until 10/28 through 10/30.

So my take is law firms tried to keep the two organizations in dark as far as possible (to keep the dates status quo) and the organizations just retaliated by not moving the dates as we all expected them to. Hope in next 2-3 weeks the flood of applications are going to be reviewed and more appropriate data will be available for the organizations to take an informed decision on FA Dates.

[mesan123]

Well I agree with your statement Idliman that things are beyond our control.

The answer to me looks biased and this is my take based on experiences of my known associates and me.

The law firm helping my employer and employees did not send the AOS documents till last day possible (the signatures were taken in the middle of this week). And we all hundreds and hundreds of people got confirmation yesterday 10/30 that the files were sent out to USCIS. I heard same story from many of my friends that were dealing with big law firms across the board that the petitions were not sent out up until 10/28 through 10/30.

So my take is law firms tried to keep the two organizations in dark as far as possible (to keep the dates status quo) and the organizations just retaliated by not moving the dates as we all expected them to. Hope in next 2-3 weeks the flood of applications are going to be reviewed and more appropriate data will be available for the organizations to take an informed decision on FA Dates. This might be true too... As USCIS would not be able to guess the load... yeap i heard same story from most of my friends using big law firms... i dont know what they gained doing this , as many were so stressed with their cases not filed till last date...

[gkjppp]

Hello folks - I am in a strange situation and do not know how things will transpire. I am current in Nov bulletin with EB2I PD Sep 2009. My EAD/AP is going to expire on Dec 12, 2020. Will they be issuing me a new EAP/AP combo card? My DL is going to expire on the same day Dec 12, 2020 and I am not sure how I should proceed. I
am worried that I will have to be off payroll if EAD is not issued on time. Any suggestions?

Congrats, getting GC in hand may take a couple of months for you. At least in Texas, they approve DL for a year while you are waiting for your EAD/AP renewal. Take an appointment and check with the DL office, you should be good.Congrats once again.

[EB20112021]

EB3 2011 here as well. Thx for asking :)

[inspired_p]

Question (EB3-I oct 2010) - how many months after the PD becomes current in FAD the GC is issued ? Filed 485 in October; and assuming FAD becomes current may 2021 will the GC issued before Oct 2021

[rabp77]

I am curious on why there is a trend of creating google spread-sheets when there is already a trackitt tracker for I-485 applications here:
https://www.trackitt.com/usa-immigration-trackers/i485-eb

I believe it's mainly because trackitt data cannot be downloaded, people find it easier to follow in google sheets.may be we should just contact the admin of trackitt so the can add this feature, and we can have one source.

[rabp77]

Once it becomes current, the time to approval can vary from 3weeks to 3 months in most cases. The major factor impacting the is wheather there is an rfe. If there is no RFEs, mostly approvals come within 3-6 weeks. In some cases with rfe, it could even take 5 months. But those are exceptions. Also assuming here that the rfe is responded to in a few days.

[newsletter1978]

Gurus, do you think FAD EB2I will advance by one month or more in next bulletin

[SINCE0909]

EB2i movement in Oct VB - 7 weeks
EB2i movement in Nov VB - 3 weeks
EB2i movement in Dec VB - 1 week?
Let’s hope for the best

[bluelabel]

Gurus, do you think FAD EB2I will advance by one month or more in next bulletin

As per July 2018 EB2I pending inventory there are 10727 cases from July 2009 to April 2010. Out of 261000 GC available for FY 2021, EB2 quota is 74780 and India gets 7%(5235) plus spill over.

DOS can issue maximum of 27% of available EB GCs each quarter. If the spillover from 27%(20191) of EB2 is applied quarterly to EB2I then dates should move to May1st 2010 in December Bulletin otherwise 2-3 weeks is the minimum movement we should see.

JULY 968
AUGUST 801
SEPTEMBER 1006
OCTOBER 1127
NOVEMBER 1000
DECEMBER 1148
JANUARY 1086
FEBRUARY 1074
MARCH 1273
APRIL 1244

[ak7419]

This statement from CO is patently false. There is tens of thousands of people from EB-India who are simply waiting for a visa. No processing is needed. All they have to do is simply allocate the visa.

I am one of those but still processing is needed to issue RFEs, isn't it? Almost all of them have expired medicals and we also need to submit 485J. Staff needs to open all of these cases, identify the ones that need RFEs, issue them, wait for their response, re-process the case and then issue GC. Perhaps that is what CO is referring to?

[vsivarama]

Good News ! I would assume very small nuisance removed for EB applicants, but this is huge for FB applicants I am sure.

It may improve the 485 processing times, but my how much? That is the real question.

[srimurthy]

All,
I have moved the Elections and impact discussions to a new thread:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2914-Elections-Results-and-Impact-Discussions

[longwaitgigu]

Why all downgrade petitions go to trxas

[vsivarama]

https://www.uscis.gov/i-485-addresses
It is based on the state one resides. All EB based on I140 are filed either in TX or AZ. I am not sure if the workload transfer applies for 485.

For non downgrade cases you are correct. But if you look at the link, cases to be filed along with i-140 just have the Dallas lockbox address. If you either have a receipt of i-140/approval notice along with your application, then it would depend on your location. So all downgrade cases by the virtue of not having a receipt of i-140 will go to Dallas. Now will it be processed in texas or be transferred to a different location, that's a USCIS call. Anyways, none of this matters as long as we keep getting the receipt notices.

[gcconnect]

Any chance of VB this week?

I hope from this month at least FAD should move minimum 2 to 3 months for EB2I and EB3I

Any predictions number gurus :)

[Pundit Arjun]

Any chance of VB this week?

I hope from this month at least FAD should move minimum 2 to 3 months for EB2I and EB3I

Any predictions number gurus :)

Just take it easy and enjoy the month of Nov, gcconnect :).
I have taken Nov 30th as the day the VB will be out - Better to keep the expectations low and plan for a good holiday season. Zen mode after many years of being there and getting disappointed - LOL

[Positive]

It was filed with Dallas lockbox but the notification came from the National Benefits Center (Receipt number starts with MSC). It’s a regular EB2 case, no downgrade.

My downgrade application was mailed on the Oct. 9. No word yet, checks are yet to be cashed. I have wondered what I will do if they reject it because it was filed as a standalone I-140 for EB3 and not an amendment. I am not worried about running out of time, it will likely be decided this month. The worry is if I want to file as an amendment even if there is time to do so.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

My downgrade application was mailed on the Oct. 9. No word yet, checks are yet to be cashed. I have wondered what I will do if they reject it because it was filed as a standalone I-140 for EB3 and not an amendment. I am not worried about running out of time, it will likely be decided this month. The worry is if I want to file as an amendment even if there is time to do so.

From what I have read, the issue with rejected I-485 downgrades have to majorly do with them being having filed in premium. So attorneys started adjusting for that and recommending to first wait for the receipts first before seeking premium processing.

[Positive]

From what I have read, the issue with rejected I-485 downgrades have to majorly do with them being having filed in premium. So attorneys started adjusting for that and recommending to first wait for the receipts first before seeking premium processing. Thanks, that is reassuring.

[inspired_p]

Whats the prediction from December Visa bulletin?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Whats the prediction from December Visa bulletin?

Wouldn't it be fun if the DoS asks the admin to go pound sand and massively move the dates?

Pessimistic view is the EB2-I will move to Nov 22, 09 and Eb3-I moves to May 1, 10

[1312011_eb2I]

Logically, they should move FAD for both Eb2 and EB3 to 1 May,2010, since almost all the cases are pre-adjudicated and just need a Visa.
Thoughts?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Logically, they should move FAD for both Eb2 and EB3 to 1 May,2010, since almost all the cases are pre-adjudicated and just need a Visa.
Thoughts?

That's what I was also expecting, or at least the dates moving 3 months in Oct and Nov so that as a whole it can move toward May 2011 at a gradual but consistent pace. But nothing is logical and if this continues they will end up wasting visas at the end of the fiscal. The only hope is a new admin coming in Jan and setting things straight and use all the numbers available at least for this fiscal and check if Congress is going to do anything about spillover for FY2022. That's why Democrats not having the Senate is a double edged sword. No immigration reform but no other bills will also pass. That's just my opinion.

[gcconnect]

Wouldn't it be fun if the DoS asks the admin to go pound sand and massively move the dates?


Sounds like Thousandwala:D . Diwali wishes are pouring from Admin.

[1312011_eb2I]

Prediction, EB3I will be 1 May 2010 , EB2I will be 15 Nov 2009.

[ak7419]

Logically, they should move FAD for both Eb2 and EB3 to 1 May,2010, since almost all the cases are pre-adjudicated and just need a Visa.
Thoughts?

They can move as much as they want but the applicants who were current since three months have not even received RFE :(

[1312011_eb2I]

So, what I understand is , current processing time for I-485 is up to 45 Months , timer will start once FAD is current, correct?

[ak7419]

So, what I understand is , current processing time for I-485 is up to 45 Months , timer will start once FAD is current, correct?

45 months might be an exaggeration but it is taking anywhere from 3 to 6 months.

[qesehmk]

Happy Diwali to all. May you and your loved ones live happier healthier and more prosperous lives!

As you celebrate Diwali don't forget India's farmers who have been forced into selling their produce at below cost prices since 1947 and have been driven into abject poverty today. To the extent you can support fair prices for agricultural produce in India.

1717

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Happy Diwali to all. May you and your loved ones live happier healthier and more prosperous lives!

As you celebrate Diwali don't forget India's farmers who have been forced into selling their produce at below cost prices since 1947 and have been driven into abject poverty today. To the extent you can support fair prices for agricultural produce in India.

1717

Happy Diwali to you too, Q and everyone else here!

[inspired_p]

We received Biometric appointment for 1st December.

[raradhya]

We received Biometric appointment for 1st December.

Thank you for the update. looks like you filed on 23rd October. did you receive the receipt notice along with appointment letter?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I know there was some debate on A numbers and whether they change. Well, I was trying to look up my wife's case and they couldn't find it and when we received the notices, her A number was different than what was previously issued for OPT EAD. So it looks like it can change between applications maybe between F1 and other types.

[Spectator]

Friends, happy to inform you all that we just received the approval notice. Extremely thankful to q and spec for the forum, comments, encouragement and advice. You guys rock. Hoping the queue keeps moving ahead fast, and we see lots of approvals in the next year.
rabp77,

Congrats on your approval.




I've updated the FACTS & DATA PERM section (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) with the full FY figures for FY2020.

[mesan123]

Friends, happy to inform you all that we just received the approval notice. Extremely thankful to q and spec for the forum, comments, encouragement and advice. You guys rock. Hoping the queue keeps moving ahead fast, and we see lots of approvals in the next year.. Congratulations rabp77 on your approval

[ak7419]

If the response to a service request came from Texas Service Center, does it mean that my I-485 case is being handled by TSC? My receipt number starts with LIN.

[longwaitgigu]

Inspired p
Did u file at Texas service center?
And file eb2 to eb3 downgrade in premium

[imdeng]

I've updated the FACTS & DATA PERM section (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) with the full FY figures for FY2020.

Thanks Spec. I took another look through the numbers - and man is the situation dire!! More than 50K/year PERMs for India and like 13K for China - and no regulatory relief on the horizon. Covid will help matters for long suffering folks - but those that entered the queue in last couple years are looking at decades of wait.

Interesting that EB-2/3-China will likely be the big sufferer going forward as well. They will soon need spillover as their annual demand will significantly outpace annual quota - but the giant backlog of India will suck up any spillover.

[inspired_p]

Inspired p
Did u file at Texas service center?
And file eb2 to eb3 downgrade in premium

It was filed in Nebraska - EB3 fresh application with PERM

[longwaitgigu]

It was filed in Nebraska - EB3 fresh application with PERM

What is date of filing of i485 in October
Was it file with i140?

[longwaitgigu]

What is date of filing of i485 in October
Was it file with i140?
Also from which state u applying?
I am hearing pure downgrade r going to texas
Rest to Nebraska and Vermont

[inspired_p]

Also from which state u applying?
I am hearing pure downgrade r going to texas
Rest to Nebraska and Vermont

Yes Concurrently filed from California . Mine is not a downgrade application.
Receipt Date 22nd Oct 2020

[Moveon]

Thanks Spec. I took another look through the numbers - and man is the situation dire!! More than 50K/year PERMs for India and like 13K for China - and no regulatory relief on the horizon. Covid will help matters for long suffering folks - but those that entered the queue in last couple years are looking at decades of wait.

Interesting that EB-2/3-China will likely be the big sufferer going forward as well. They will soon need spillover as their annual demand will significantly outpace annual quota - but the giant backlog of India will suck up any spillover.

Yes , that seems to be a steady 50K just for India and another 12K for China. Thanks Spec as always for gathering all the data .
If you assume that there is one dependent for a primary (I guess its 2.2 in reality ) , that will be 100K GCs just for India . Optimistically if remove duplicate filings and both spouses filing , I guess that will still be a minimum of 70K GCs needed each year just for India and another 10K for China . Those filing for GC or those who have filed over the last 4 years desperately need not just reform to the existing GC process (removal of country quota) but also a one time GC grant of about 400K GCs to remove decades of waiting .
With the current state of immigration , i guess the only hope is for kids to file for your GC if you file today .

[inspired_p]

Friends, happy to inform you all that we just received the approval notice. Extremely thankful to q and spec for the forum, comments, encouragement and advice. You guys rock. Hoping the queue keeps moving ahead fast, and we see lots of approvals in the next year.

Congratulations !

[inspired_p]

Yes , that seems to be a steady 50K just for India and another 12K for China. Thanks Spec as always for gathering all the data .
If you assume that there is one dependent for a primary (I guess its 2.2 in reality ) , that will be 100K GCs just for India . Optimistically if remove duplicate filings and both spouses filing , I guess that will still be a minimum of 70K GCs needed each year just for India and another 10K for China . Those filing for GC or those who have filed over the last 4 years desperately need not just reform to the existing GC process (removal of country quota) but also a one time GC grant of about 400K GCs to remove decades of waiting .
With the current state of immigration , i guess the only hope is for kids to file for your GC if you file today .

It is a dire situation. When I filed in 2010, people were saying it will take a decade for getting greened an that seemed unjust and unfair. Now it seems it will take a decade to move 1 year of PD. Its a tragedy that no one in power considers this a gross injustice.

[Moveon]

It is a dire situation. When I filed in 2010, people were saying it will take a decade for getting greened an that seemed unjust and unfair. Now it seems it will take a decade to move 1 year of PD. Its a tragedy that no one in power considers this a gross injustice.

Yes it is . I feel even more for those who came to this country with their kids born in India. Those kids will need to move to F1 and then hope to get an HIB and file for a GC to maintain status and wait until their kids file for a GC. Just imagine their trauma. They did nothing wrong but have to suffer their whole life because no one cares . I wish DACA had a provision for such kids, but then legal immigration is not a vote bank.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Yes it is . I feel even more for those who came to this country with their kids born in India. Those kids will need to move to F1 and then hope to get an HIB and file for a GC to maintain status and wait until their kids file for a GC. Just imagine their trauma. They did nothing wrong but have to suffer their whole life because no one cares . I wish DACA had a provision for such kids, but then legal immigration is not a vote bank.

As the elections indicated, this country is divided almost exactly in half and there are no compromises being visible on the horizon. So we are destined to deal with this outdated immigration rules for a lot more time.

Any ideas as to December bulletin release from sources? Theoretically speaking they can take as late as Nov 30 to release it as it falls on a Monday. Won't be the least surprised if that happens. Hoping for some aggressive movement in Final Action dates at least in Dec bulletin.

[Moveon]

As the elections indicated, this country is divided almost exactly in half and there are no compromises being visible on the horizon. So we are destined to deal with this outdated immigration rules for a lot more time.

Any ideas as to December bulletin release from sources? Theoretically speaking they can take as late as Nov 30 to release it as it falls on a Monday. Won't be the least surprised if that happens. Hoping for some aggressive movement in Final Action dates at least in Dec bulletin.

I was looking at the 2006 fiscal , where dates started to gallop from the december bulletin. Hope it happens again . With the Biden administration we should atleast see the departments getting staffed from Feb , so there is some hope still left to issue the whole 265K GCs.

Month EB2 EB3
10/2005 : 01-Nov-99 : 01-Jan-98
11/2005: 01-Nov-99 : 01-Jan-98
12/2005: 01JUL- 00. : 01-Jan-99
01/2006: 01JAN01. : 01-JUN-99
02/2006: 01-AUG-01. : 01-JAN-00
03/2006: 01-JAN-02. : 01-JAN-01
04/2006: 01-JUL-02. : 01-FEB-01
05/2006: 01-JAN-03. : 01-MAR-01
06/2006: 01-JAN-03. : 08-APR-01
07/2006: 01-JAN-03 : 15-APR-01
08/2006: Unavailable : 01-APR-01
09/2006: Unavailable : 01-APR-01

[srimurthy]

I was looking at the 2006 fiscal , where dates started to gallop from the december bulletin. Hope it happens again . With the Biden administration we should atleast see the departments getting staffed from Feb , so there is some hope still left to issue the whole 265K GCs.

Month EB2 EB3
10/2005 : 01-Nov-99 : 01-Jan-98
11/2005: 01-Nov-99 : 01-Jan-98
12/2005: 01JUL- 00. : 01-Jan-99
01/2006: 01JAN01. : 01-JUN-99
02/2006: 01-AUG-01. : 01-JAN-00
03/2006: 01-JAN-02. : 01-JAN-01
04/2006: 01-JUL-02. : 01-FEB-01
05/2006: 01-JAN-03. : 01-MAR-01
06/2006: 01-JAN-03. : 08-APR-01
07/2006: 01-JAN-03 : 15-APR-01
08/2006: Unavailable : 01-APR-01
09/2006: Unavailable : 01-APR-01

2005 there was no FAD or FD implemented at that time. So that is a factor now and they already have all the required applications in queue for quite some time.
Infact anything before Apr'2010 for EB2 they should have the closest of numbers and can allocate the visas as needed.

[inspired_p]

2005 there was no FAD or FD implemented at that time. So that is a factor now and they already have all the required applications in queue for quite some time.
Infact anything before Apr'2010 for EB2 they should have the closest of numbers and can allocate the visas as needed.

Why would they not work on all the applications already filed starting the first month of the fiscal year (oct 2020)? Is manpower a factor ? I don't really see the reasoning behind not making May 2010 the FAD for the EB2-I as they already have Most of the applications filed till then.

[ak7419]

Why would they not work on all the applications already filed starting the first month of the fiscal year (oct 2020)? Is manpower a factor ? I don't really see the reasoning behind not making May 2010 the FAD for the EB2-I as they already have Most of the applications filed till then. Manpower is definitely a factor because as an example EB2I who got current back in July are yet to receive RFE let alone approval.

[rabp77]

Manpower is definitely a factor because as an example EB2I who got current back in July are yet to receive RFE let alone approval.

That's likely the reason why eb3 moved faster than eb2. Eb3 cases were filed recently, so with unexpired medicals had one less reason for rfe.

[Zenzone]

Manpower is definitely a factor because as an example EB2I who got current back in July are yet to receive RFE let alone approval.

I won't generalize. I know ppl. who have even received their cards from being current in July.

[longwaitgigu]

Inspired p
I am still trying to figure out
How urs i485 applied in Nebraska service center
As most goes to Arizona or Texas service center

[ak7419]

I won't generalize. I know ppl. who have even received their cards from being current in July. Sorry I should have qualified it as "only TSC folks" :)

[vsivarama]

Inspired p
I am still trying to figure out
How urs i485 applied in Nebraska service center
As most goes to Arizona or Texas service center

The applications are NOT sent to a service center. They are sent to a lockbox facility in Texas or Phoenix. The following is the process that ensues in a lockbox facility as per USCIS website.

https://www.uscis.gov/about-us/organization/directorates-and-program-offices/management-directorate/office-of-intake-and-document-production/lockbox-filing-information

When staff at the lockbox receive your package, they will:
Evaluate data from scanned images against acceptance criteria;
Accept or reject forms and related fees based on current regulations and policies;
Verify that you submitted the correct fee
Deposit payments to the U.S. Treasury;
Send receipt notices for accepted forms to you (and your representative, if applicable);
Return rejected forms to you (or your representative, if applicable); and
Send your package to the appropriate USCIS service center or field office for further processing.

[inspired_p]

Inspired p
I am still trying to figure out
How urs i485 applied in Nebraska service center
As most goes to Arizona or Texas service center

No idea. I have zero clue on how this works. I just know the address where application package was sent because lawyer shared the Fedex tracking information

[inspired_p]

What are the December visa bulletin predictions?
Calculations say it should jump 6 month every visa bulletin at least, don't they ?
Giving USCIS the benefit of the doubt, they will now have sufficient application count from Oct/Nov to get a better idea. I think My prediction is FAD will move twice as much as November, EB-I will move 1 and half months and EB3-I will move 3 months.

[gcconnect]

What are the December visa bulletin predictions?
Calculations say it should jump 6 month every visa bulletin at least, don't they ?
Giving USCIS the benefit of the doubt, they will now have sufficient application count from Oct/Nov to get a better idea. I think My prediction is FAD will move twice as much as November, EB-I will move 1 and half months and EB3-I will move 3 months.

If application count is the criteria for the Date movement, i don't think they have an idea of count as the receipts are still pending for OCT filers. Looks like they are not issuing the receipts as the order they received, because some of the OCT 3rd week people got receipts and some of the 2nd week filers did not get .
I am thinking the date movement will be the same for couple of months and start moving rapidly ;).

[Sebiswaiting]

I feel eb2 FAD should move my 4 months, considering they expects it to reach FD my sept21. EB3 is still tricky as they still won't have clear numbers of downgrade, but I think EB3 FAd should move by 3.5 months.
They might still consider FD for December, but more and more I look at numbers and downgrade news , I feel FD for EB3 might be moved up to mid of 2014 as precaution.
By end of December, with reciepts/rejection trend, and possibly CO's insight, we get clearer picture.


What are the December visa bulletin predictions?
Calculations say it should jump 6 month every visa bulletin at least, don't they ?
........

[idliman]

I feel eb2 FAD should move my 4 months, considering they expects it to reach FD my sept21. EB3 is still tricky as they still won't have clear numbers of downgrade, but I think EB3 FAd should move by 3.5 months.
They might still consider FD for December, but more and more I look at numbers and downgrade news , I feel FD for EB3 might be moved up to mid of 2014 as precaution.
By end of December, with receipts/rejection trend, and possibly CO's insight, we get clearer picture.
I think many of us will be surprised by the actual downgrade numbers beyond 2010. It looks like everyone who can downgrade and employer coorperation had downgraded (exception being CTS). Initially I was thinking about 30% downgrades (EB2 to EB3). Now it looks like 60% or more.

[AceMan]

I think many of us will be surprised by the actual downgrade numbers beyond 2010. It looks like everyone who can downgrade and employer coorperation had downgraded (exception being CTS). Initially I was thinking about 30% downgrades (EB2 to EB3). Now it looks like 60% or more.

If you take a look at January 2019, Eb3 had an April 2010 filing date. It will be 2 years when the next bulletin is released and we are still a month away from hitting that date.

I can see the funny side of this. From 2009-2019 most of the people in Eb2 had some kind of discussion at the beginning if they should be in Eb2 or 3. A decade later most of these exceptionally skilled people running backwards to fit under regular skills is hilarious in a sad way. Sad because of the rules governing the system. Hilarious because almost all of them should have been Eb3 to start with and they are back to the place where they really belong.

[vbollu]

I think many of us will be surprised by the actual downgrade numbers beyond 2010. It looks like everyone who can downgrade and employer coorperation had downgraded (exception being CTS). Initially I was thinking about 30% downgrades (EB2 to EB3). Now it looks like 60% or more.


I think upgrade/downgrade doesn't matter as long a they don't use Ead. once applicant start using Ead then you can't switch the category.

[srimurthy]

If you take a look at January 2019, Eb3 had an April 2010 filing date. It will be 2 years when the next bulletin is released and we are still a month away from hitting that date.

I can see the funny side of this. From 2009-2019 most of the people in Eb2 had some kind of discussion at the beginning if they should be in Eb2 or 3. A decade later most of these exceptionally skilled people running backwards to fit under regular skills is hilarious in a sad way. Sad because of the rules governing the system. Hilarious because almost all of them should have been Eb3 to start with and they are back to the place where they really belong.

With the amount of time it takes to even file 485, everyone from India and may be China gains the 5 years experience and become eligible for EB2. We should be considerate and the only place they do not belong is wait for more than a decade to just file for 485. The pace at which things are going, some may actually near retirement before they get greened and that is the sad part.

[AceMan]

With the amount of time it takes to even file 485, everyone from India and may be China gains the 5 years experience and become eligible for EB2. We should be considerate and the only place they do not belong is wait for more than a decade to just file for 485. The pace at which things are going, some may actually near retirement before they get greened and that is the sad part.

The filing date introduced in 2015 was supposed to advance or ease the filing for 485. It is now 5 years and filing date of Eb2 is yet to reach July 2011 which was set in the original September 2015 bulletin which was pulled back.

Without covid the dates for Eb3 would have not even reached 2010. With just 16,000 and 22,000 perm applications for 2009 and 2010 the dates should have zoomed past 2009 and well into 2010 long back. It did not because Eb3 guys within those days first jumped into Eb2 from 2012 and then from 2018 jumped back to Eb3 with a new downgrade.

My biggest concern is why CO is not advancing the Eb2 dates to account for 2800 visas for October itself? And apply the spill over if any later in the last quarter. This nonsense of 700 visas allocation every quarter would be correct when every dates are current.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

The filing date introduced in 2015 was supposed to advance or ease the filing for 485. It is now 5 years and filing date of Eb2 is yet to reach July 2011 which was set in the original September 2015 bulletin which was pulled back.

Without covid the dates for Eb3 would have not even reached 2010. With just 16,000 and 22,000 perm applications for 2009 and 2010 the dates should have zoomed past 2009 and well into 2010 long back. It did not because Eb3 guys within those days first jumped into Eb2 from 2012 and then from 2018 jumped back to Eb3 with a new downgrade.

My biggest concern is why CO is not advancing the Eb2 dates to account for 2800 visas for October itself? And apply the spill over if any later in the last quarter. This nonsense of 700 visas allocation every quarter would be correct when every dates are current.

I would not be surprised if there were some political calculus behind not advancing dates. Remember the orange cheeto and his minions like Miller are still in power and CO may not want to disturb the water. I am actually really glad the idiot is continuing to dispute the elections with his flimsy excuses and digging himself into a deeper hole which will hopefully distract them enough for a couple of months. But as you see with the Military changes that they are rapidly undertaking, I won't be surprised once the results are certified, they will turn inward and start burning down everything inside.

[mrperfect]

The filing date introduced in 2015 was supposed to advance or ease the filing for 485. It is now 5 years and filing date of Eb2 is yet to reach July 2011 which was set in the original September 2015 bulletin which was pulled back.

Without covid the dates for Eb3 would have not even reached 2010. With just 16,000 and 22,000 perm applications for 2009 and 2010 the dates should have zoomed past 2009 and well into 2010 long back. It did not because Eb3 guys within those days first jumped into Eb2 from 2012 and then from 2018 jumped back to Eb3 with a new downgrade.

My biggest concern is why CO is not advancing the Eb2 dates to account for 2800 visas for October itself? And apply the spill over if any later in the last quarter. This nonsense of 700 visas allocation every quarter would be correct when every dates are current.

"This nonsense of 700 visas allocation every quarter would be correct when every dates are current." Good Point Aceman... I am aware of the yearly per country limits (~3k) is there a rule that they can only apply the limits per quarter? i understand the processing efficiency.. what harm will it make to move the FAD to the date (where they can utilize the yearly quota) on the first day of the FY start?

[skpanda]

The EB2-->EB3 is inevitable. It just like how EB3--> Upgrade happened a decade ago. I for one has always supported this. EB2/EB3 category does not matter for Indians. Skills are not vastly different barring few exceptions... its just a matter where one can get the green card sooner.

As YTEleven or somebody else predicted, after the flurry of upgrade/downgrades, EB2/EB3 should move hand in hand. Its a good thing.

[srimurthy]

[QUOTE=mrperfect;68260]"This nonsense of 700 visas allocation every quarter would be correct when every dates are current." Good Point Aceman... QUOTE]
I agree that for all backlogged countries they should allocate the complete 2800 in the first month or first quarter for efficiency and then either allocate more or not based on spillovers.

[mesan123]

Hi, finally got my reciepts... I have quick question my spouse has his priority date on 485 reciept rather than mine which is current. Is this the norm? Or should i get that corrected with USCIS..

[longwaitgigu]

Thanks Spec. I took another look through the numbers - and man is the situation dire!! More than 50K/year PERMs for India and like 13K for China - and no regulatory relief on the horizon. Covid will help matters for long suffering folks - but those that entered the queue in last couple years are looking at decades of wait.

Interesting that EB-2/3-China will likely be the big sufferer going forward as well. They will soon need spillover as their annual demand will significantly outpace annual quota - but the giant backlog of India will suck up any spillover.

Perms for ROW, Mexico and Philippines totalled 30,182
They been current also means less spillover to india by 60,000 if doubled the number counting dependents

[AceMan]

The EB2-->EB3 is inevitable. It just like how EB3--> Upgrade happened a decade ago. I for one has always supported this. EB2/EB3 category does not matter for Indians. Skills are not vastly different barring few exceptions... its just a matter where one can get the green card sooner.

As YTEleven or somebody else predicted, after the flurry of upgrade/downgrades, EB2/EB3 should move hand in hand. Its a good thing.

Eb3 -> Eb2 natural progression. Eb2 -> Eb3 a convenience progression. All it does is to hold up Eb3 dates with no obvious advantage to Eb2. We saw that in mid 2019 when Eb3 moved back to Jan 2009 and was stuck there for over a year and it got a move again only 4 months back, thanks to Covid.

USCIS allows/supports it, end of the story.

[skpanda]

Eb3 -> Eb2 natural progression. Eb2 -> Eb3 a convenience progression. All it does is to hold up Eb3 dates with no obvious advantage to Eb2. We saw that in mid 2019 when Eb3 moved back to Jan 2009 and was stuck there for over a year and it got a move again only 4 months back, thanks to Covid.

USCIS allows/supports it, end of the story.

"with no obvious advantage to Eb2"
Not sure why you feel so.

People who are in EB2 2010/2011 will get green card faster in EB3 than EB2.
All EB2 people after 2011 who downgrade will get EAD/AP. (This is an advantage to most people).

Ofcourse it is disadvantageous to EB3 friends in 2010/2011. Think of it this way, Many people jumped the ship from EB3 to EB2 and as a result EB3 moved faster. Now its just a catch up and balance out. Worst case these friends in EB3 would have been delayed in any way if EB3 to EB2 upgrade did not happen.

In the end basically everybody is doing whatever they can to get out of this backlog. Nothing wrong!

[waitin4gc]

I think upgrade/downgrade doesn't matter as long a they don't use Ead. once applicant start using Ead then you can't switch the category.

For folks who applied 485 in EB2 and used their EAD, can they not interfile in EB3 at a later stage if their PD becomes current in EB3? Assuming that a new I-140 gets approved in EB3.

[inspired_p]

Hi, finally got my reciepts... I have quick question my spouse has his priority date on 485 reciept rather than mine which is current. Is this the norm? Or should i get that corrected with USCIS..

Where on the I-797C do we see the priority date? I do not see any on my receipt notices.

[inspired_p]

EB3 -> EB2 were vilified and now EB2 ->EB3 are being vilified.

The PERM is what determines what qualifications are required for the person to be eligible foe the job. Once that is confirmed,
As long as PERM and job match up to qualify for EB2 , what category the I-140 is filed in is just administrative process.
I see many who like to create buckets to put people in , EB3 == low wage worker , EB2 == high skilled worker etc.

And people having duplicate applications EB2 and EB3 really should not change the wait times , as one person will only apply I-485 once and consume only 1 visa number anyways.
The only duplicate applications that skew USCIS predictions are the ones where both the spouses have I-140 approved and they end up using only one , while the other stays in the system as expected application

[mesan123]

Where on the I-797C do we see the priority date? I do not see any on my receipt notices. i have it on my I-485 reciept notice

[vbollu]

For folks who applied 485 in EB2 and used their EAD, can they not interfile in EB3 at a later stage if their PD becomes current in EB3? Assuming that a new I-140 gets approved in EB3.

If you want to switch the category after using EAD that process is very complicated and will take a long time to complete the process.

[fishelusa]

Hi All, if anyone not received receipt notices, I came to know that uscis chat will give 485 receipt no. Is this true

[AceMan]

"with no obvious advantage to Eb2"
Not sure why you feel so.

People who are in EB2 2010/2011 will get green card faster in EB3 than EB2.
All EB2 people after 2011 who downgrade will get EAD/AP. (This is an advantage to most people).

Ofcourse it is disadvantageous to EB3 friends in 2010/2011. Think of it this way, Many people jumped the ship from EB3 to EB2 and as a result EB3 moved faster. Now its just a catch up and balance out. Worst case these friends in EB3 would have been delayed in any way if EB3 to EB2 upgrade did not happen.

In the end basically everybody is doing whatever they can to get out of this backlog. Nothing wrong!

Eb3 -> Eb2 is natural progression, you grow up the ladder in your career. Now the new format is growing downwards. And when the dates move forward they will attempt Eb2 again.

It is called a zero sum game. Eb3 I moved to jan1st 2015 because people were getting into Eb2. It was clear from the 150 year joke by cato where it had only under 55000 applicants in Eb3 and 216,000 in Eb2.

Even then in 2018,2019 and 2020 the exceptionally skilled were applying in Eb2.

[kash80]

Hi All, if anyone not received receipt notices, I came to know that uscis chat will give 485 receipt no. Is this true

I did try this way with my A#, but didn't get my receipt numbers. They asked me to wait at least 30 calendar days. My application was delivered on 10/23 to the TX location.

[inspired_p]

It is called a zero sum game.

There are many approvals just on this forum which suggests that at a micro level it is not a zero sum game. EB2-I -> EB3-I has given 2 years more on EAD for many people and people have received GCs in last 2 months when their PDs are current in EB3 but not in EB2 ( at least 6-13 months early).

Maybe on the macro level , it will be zero sum game with EB2 and EB3 fluctuating back and forth. There might be a correction again in next 2 years when number of EB3 and EB2 applications equal , but EB2 will not jump ahead of EB3 anymore as most people who have EB3 also have EB2 now and they can choose.

Anyways, my point it is I have direct examples where companies have applied I-140 in EB3 in the 2000's when everything was eligible for EB2.
Also, here is a case in point, I know someone is eligible for EB1-I now with EB3-I PD in mid 2009. Why would one blame anyone in this situation if the employer applies I-140 in EB3 or EB2 and gets the GC instead of going through the extra hassles of EB1-A burden of proof.
Or do you expect the person to stick with EB1-A application

[vsivarama]

Eb3 -> Eb2 is natural progression, you grow up the ladder in your career. Now the new format is growing downwards. And when the dates move forward they will attempt Eb2 again.


I do not see anything wrong in this. The conception that EB1>EB2>EB3 is just in theory. As a practical matter it was never accurate. If it were then the folks in EB2 would be greened before EB3 in every instance. The 7% country cap itself is proof that it was never meant to be a skills based immigration system but instead a diversity first approach. Skills are an afterthought once the diversity requirements are met. So I do not see an argument where upgrading from EB3 to EB2 and then falling back to EB3 is not in line with the spirit of the law. If anything it proves the sham of a high skilled immigration system it always was. Me personally, I decided to wait 1 year because my company had put in the initial effort to apply a EB3 perm for me. Back then wait time for EB2 was around 3-4 yrs or so and EB3 was close to 10 yrs. I do know now that it was the dumbest mistake I ever made in my life.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I do not see anything wrong in this. The conception that EB1>EB2>EB3 is just in theory. As a practical matter it was never accurate. If it were then the folks in EB2 would be greened before EB3 in every instance. The 7% country cap itself is proof that it was never meant to be a skills based immigration system but instead a diversity first approach. Skills are an afterthought once the diversity requirements are met. So I do not see an argument where upgrading from EB3 to EB2 and then falling back to EB3 is not in line with the spirit of the law. If anything it proves the sham of a high skilled immigration system it always was. Me personally, I decided to wait 1 year because my company had put in the initial effort to apply a EB3 perm for me. Back then wait time for EB2 was around 3-4 yrs or so and EB3 was close to 10 yrs. I do know now that it was the dumbest mistake I ever made in my life.

You were operating under the same assumptions as any rational and educated person would, i.e. EB2 is higher priority than EB3 and will get greened faster. So don't blame yourself for this, it's the system that is messed up. The most ridiculous aspect of it other than being diversity focused and not based on skills is counting dependents. A lot more children likely get employment based green cards every year compared to people who are primarily qualified for that. How dumb is that in the 21st century?

[raradhya]

Need advise on how to address this correction of the i-485 application for derivative applicant.
the date of birth for on the parent is entered wrong (entered marriage date instead of birth date). we recently (last month) filed the application and waiting for receipt notice. wondering how to address this correction.

[gcconnect]

Basically, American immigration system is based on family reunification and the needs of employers. Needs of the employers cannot be fulfilled without employee family which is again Children.
On a broader view employment category is developed based on the employer’s requirements in different skills that are valuable to the U.S. economy. Immigration system view is different than us who are in different category lines. They don't care who got in which employment category, as the main objective is the diversity and economy.
I know so many people who does not even know GC process got GC long back. I was also under the same impression that it will come one day. Decade waiting makes me slowly getting into the things around GC and understanding people jumping lines to see the Heaven:). people catch anything when drowning, that may be others leg. Cant blame it.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Need advise on how to address this correction of the i-485 application for derivative applicant.
the date of birth for on the parent is entered wrong (entered marriage date instead of birth date). we recently (last month) filed the application and waiting for receipt notice. wondering how to address this correction.

https://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/made-mistake-immigration-form-how-correct-it.html

[vsivarama]

On a broader view employment category is developed based on the employer’s requirements in different skills that are valuable to the U.S. economy. Immigration system view is different than us who are in different category lines. They don't care who got in which employment category, as the main objective is the diversity and economy.


Here is the biggest problem with this. EB is only 14-15% of American immigration system. The Rest is based on diversity anyway, so not sure what diversity is going to achieve in employment based category, and why family members should count as recipients of EB numbers. I agree that US has the right to decide which immigrants should be prioritized based on occupations or needs of the country (doctors, nurses, scientists). But then to discriminate within the occupations based on country of birth is like trying to plant your hands firmly on the scales and force a winner. You never get innovation (the best and the brightest) by forcing an outcome devoid of logic.

[AceMan]

Basically, American immigration system is based on family reunification and the needs of employers. Needs of the employers cannot be fulfilled without employee family which is again Children.
On a broader view employment category is developed based on the employer’s requirements in different skills that are valuable to the U.S. economy. Immigration system view is different than us who are in different category lines. They don't care who got in which employment category, as the main objective is the diversity and economy.
I know so many people who does not even know GC process got GC long back. I was also under the same impression that it will come one day. Decade waiting makes me slowly getting into the things around GC and understanding people jumping lines to see the Heaven:). people catch anything when drowning, that may be others leg. Cant blame it.


You have hit the nail on the head. American immigration was always on family and the diversity it brings into this country. EB based immigration was created only in 90’s and this was heavily influenced by family based. The 2001 incidents ripped out any possible increase in the number of immigrants which has already been set.

In the big scheme of things these line jumpings does not even matter as they are legit. People who are waiting in this nonsense queue will catch anything to pick them from drowning in the quick sand.