EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

My point was that if one is not in a research or teaching position, then there is no basis for filing EB1b.
Second that, as I have personal experience in this with regard to my wife. She has a PhD and works indirectly for space and defense, but she can’t publish anything or provide details on anything she does. So she has no chance of applying for EB1B. She can easily file EB2-NIW but that offers no advantage from a processing standpoint so we decided to just stick with my application and ride it out.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Not many think and believe this will happen. I was predicting this to happen for several years now. The logic is simple.. if administration is successful in allocating 261K visas by Sep 2021 then atleast 50k visas should go to EB3I and that brings down the EB3I final action dates to 2015 and beyond.

My apologies if this has already been answered. What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another rule I read is that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.

[idliman]

My apologies if this has already been answered. What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another rule I read is that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.
Spec had explained this sometime back. It is 28.6% * 7% * 261,500 = 5,235 GCs (each for EB1, EB2 and EB3) for this year. Then there is horizontal and vertical spillover.
Those depend on how much ROW is using. See posts from YTeleven earlier. He seems to think that EB2I / EB3I will get a huge chunk this year as both EB2/EB3 ROW are current. It all depends on the admin and the speed at which they anticipate and move.

[gcpursuit]

Thanks but I dont think its approval . When we called uscis, the L1 officer told the case status was still in progress.
Hopefully nothing to worry about. will wait and see.

So after a bit of drama with my lawyer not updating the G-28 when they moved a few years back, we finally got our approval and the Green card was delivered to us. It was a nail biting last stretch for us.

This forum has helped me immensely in preserving my sanity for the past several years. Special Thanks to Spec, Q and so many others.

I am very happy to see a lot of people being able to file their I-485 with the expected spillover. Hang in there.

Good luck to everyone ! I will still keep lurking here from time to time :)

[seepz123]

Hello Gurus, I need some advice regarding a job move that I am having to make. My priority date is in March 2010, and I have been on a H1-B (since 2005), and I am planning to take up a new job now as my employment with the current employer (whom I have been with since 2008) is a bit shaky due to external uncertainties. As I plan to make use of my EAD for the new employment, are there any documents that I need to submit to USCIS while making this move?

Bump. I apologize in advance if this has been addressed before, but wasnt able find a clear answer and hoping someone with experience might be able to answer.

[Kanmani]

Thank you all for your kind words.
Congratulations imdeng and gcpursuit.
@Pundit Arjun @Suninphx @Mesan @all old timers waiting - Hope to see you all getting greened very soon.
I am surprised - Green card is Green in color guys - I was told that it is pink.
Another relief for me would be secondary inspection (SI) free travel. For years we were choosing Abu Dhabi transit to avoid hours of wait in SI.
During one of our travel, the officer at SI showed me a spice rack filled with different grains, dried curry leaf, chick peas etc. and asked me whether I have anything similar in my baggage. I definitely had few items in my suitcase and I had no choice because, he advised me no fine if I come out and $500 fine per item if they find out. I was asked to identify which item is packed where - Officer turned his screen towards me and there were scanned image of all my suitcases. I was not sure - so Open and Inspect sticker placed on all my suitcases.
Long story short, from that day onwards all our suitcases had to undergo primary inspection at home and I was not allowed in the packing area.

[ashde1]

Congratulations to all who got green...below is some interesting analysis I found...

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-eb2-downgrade-rapid-forward-movement/

November bulletin will come out this week (by Friday), that will give us more data into how things are going to shake up.

[inspired_p]

Congratulations to all who got green...below is some interesting analysis I found...

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-eb2-downgrade-rapid-forward-movement/

It would be worthwhile to compare the EB3 FAD analysis alongside this one.
With no spillover and USCIS not wasting any numbers and EB2- to EB3 downgrade to 50000, EB2-I is expected to move to Q1 of 2012 according to this analysis.
What date would be current for EB3-I with the same assumptions ? How does that get calculated?

[texas_]

Hey texas,

I am in same situation . However confused about below aspects and havent been able to get a clear answer

a) Incase EB3 I-140 petition gets denied , will that harm existing I-140 petition (under EB2)?
b) In future if EB2 advances then will it be possible to switch back to EB2 queue easily ? Does one have to be on H1 to make that switch or can we switch back to EB2 queue while on EAD also ?

You have lived this situation , so hearing from you will be very helpful

Please let me know

Contact good attorney It looks Murthy is slow right now In creating forms for you. I believe they are awaiting November visa Bulletin and file all their AOS cases end of the month

Sooner the better

[cool_dude]

It would be worthwhile to compare the EB3 FAD analysis alongside this one.
With no spillover and USCIS not wasting any numbers and EB2- to EB3 downgrade to 50000, EB2-I is expected to move to Q1 of 2012 according to this analysis.
What date would be current for EB3-I with the same assumptions ? How does that get calculated?

I would downgrade and get the EAD.With these new H1 wage rule renewal might be difficult.

[sudiva]

Congratulations to all who got green...below is some interesting analysis I found...

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-eb2-downgrade-rapid-forward-movement/

EB1 getting most of the FB SO numbers does not seem correct way of analysis to me. I will wait for the gurus to comment on this analysis.

[inspired_p]

I would downgrade and get the EAD.With these new H1 wage rule renewal might be difficult.

Yes, downgrading if priority date is beyond May 2011 makes perfect sense.
Just curious how the FAD movement compares between EB2-I and EB3-I considering one specific set of assumptions for both calculations. That will drive downgrade decisions for people who are eligible to apply I-485 in EB2-I

For me personally I have an option to apply I-140 in either EB2-I and EB3-I ( fresh petition)and I have chosen EB3-I based on a hunch that EB3-I FAD will stay ahead of EB2-I for the next couple years atleast.

[ashde1]

EB1 getting most of the FB SO numbers does not seem correct way of analysis to me. I will wait for the gurus to comment on this analysis.

Every analysis I've seen so far doesn't seem to account for one constant - "Processing capacity." Even with available visas, you need processing capacity to be stable, and with COVID and Administration overheads, this can be a significant factor in utilization.

[rabp77]

Thank you for this information. I think this can be extrapolated to understand that medicals can be sent in anytime during I-485 is pending and we don't have to wait for an RFE for the same.
Is that correct ?

If you dont submit a medical, USCIS normally sends a pink letter explaining that the medicals can be submitted during interview, or when you get an RFE. One point i noted from this note is that, it explicitly said that you should not mail the medicals unless there is an RFE, and that doing so may delay the case. i dont know what kind of delay they were talking about, but they were pretty clear its not recommended.

So in summary: You can. But from a note i got, sending it without RFE is discouraged by USCIS.

So in case you want to play it safe, you could include the medicals with the form. If the cases are ready to be approved within a year, there is a chance it will prevent an RFE (which can introduce a slight delay). Of late there were a few cases that were approved without interview on trackitt. So in case you are so lucky, submitting medicals now could avoid a delay.

Good Luck.

[EB22010Dec]

Congratulations Kanmani. we rejoice in your freedom. You are famous in this forum.


Can the knowledgeable folk comment on this - https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-eb2-downgrade-rapid-forward-movement/

[sanjeevchhibber]

I have EB2I with priority date of 10th August 2011, my perm. was filed when I was Analyst now I am Director in the same dept.. (natural progression), my employer is ready to downgrade, I ma keeping all my documents ready now my dilemma is choose which option

Option 1) Monitor November visa bulletin, if EB2I filing date moves by 3 months & reach my date then just file I485 and in the future if the final action dates for EB3 reach August 2011 before EB2 then at that time do a downgrade to EB3/I485

Option 2) Should I downgrade to EB3 now and file I140/485 together and assume that EB3 will give GC faster since I140 Inventory in EB3 in 2010/2011 is very low

My lawyer is saying there is some risk in my case because My Title is Changed not sure why this matter because job duties are same, will that risk be more with EB2 or With downgrading to EB3 not sure ?

friends I am new on this site, Any suggestion/advice appreciated

If anyone has some suggestion please help

[JoinedToAsk]

Experts,

My priority date is Nov 2010 EB2I. I am hearing mixed messages from friends and several lawyers that I should continue to file in EB2I. I thought of posting here what I have gathered so far. I'd appreciate honest guidance.

Reasons for staying with EB2I in Oct/Nov 2020:

1. Let's assume that I have filed in EB2I in Oct/Nov 2020, and EB3I FAD becomes current in, say, Jan 2021. Now, if I downgrade to EB3I in Jan 2021, USCIS will not pick my EB3I in Jan 2021 although EB3I is current because I will not have an approved I-140. In other words, I'd be downgrading the month in which EB3I FAD becomes current. So, USCIS will first process those EB3I applications that will have an approved I-140 rather than mine. As a result, my application might be delayed by several months from Jan 2021.

2. I-140 in EB3I can be upgraded to premium no less than 60 days after filing downgrade application. Even then, it's at the discretion of USCIS to convert I-140 from regular processing to premium processing. So, if USCIS processes my application in regular processing (i.e. premium processing is denied), there could be a waiting period of 5-6 months for I-140 approval. Moreover, in this time, EB2I FAD might cross Nov 2010. So, I am better off staying in EB2I.

3. EB2I will get more spillover because EB1 > EB2 > EB3 in terms of priority. So, EB2I will progress faster than EB3I.

4. Sometimes downgrade/interfiling applications get lost without any updates from USCIS for several months. People go to congressmen/women for status updates, and still nothing happens. So, stay with EB2I.


Reasons for downgrading from EB2I to EB3I in Oct/Nov 2020:

1. I-140 data shows less inventory for EB3I than for EB2I in 2009/10, which implies relatively faster movement for EB3I than EB2I for Nov 2010 PD.

2. After downgrading and with approved I140 in EB3I, I will have an option to file through EB2I or EB3I. I will thus be covered either way.

3. For spillover, the priority of EB1 > EB2 > EB3 isn't right. FB spillovers are allocated equally to EB2 and EB3. This point is counter to #3 in EB2I section above.

4. After downgrading to EB3I, if EB2I moves faster than EB2I, I may not be able to upgrade to EB2I since USCIS may restrict such movement in future to make EB2I faster than EB3I.

I have gathered above data after throwing several hundred dollars on consultation. I'm very frustrated because I feel that I am getting incorrect or partially correct information. I'd appreciate if someone can give me an honest advice.


Sorry for bumping this thread. Can experts please guide me with my post below? I'd appreciate any thoughts.

[smuggymba]

Bump. I apologize in advance if this has been addressed before, but wasnt able find a clear answer and hoping someone with experience might be able to answer.

I also have a EB2 PD of March 2010. I got EAD in 2012. Changed jobs in 2014 using EAD and did NOT file anything i.e. AC21 since it's optional. My idea was I'm not a GC for the next 10 yrs so I might end up changing job couple more time.

so, no need to submit or submit if you want. When our PD is near we have to submit it again anyway IMO.

[seepz123]

I also have a EB2 PD of March 2010. I got EAD in 2012. Changed jobs in 2014 using EAD and did NOT file anything i.e. AC21 since it's optional. My idea was I'm not a GC for the next 10 yrs so I might end up changing job couple more time.

so, no need to submit or submit if you want. When our PD is near we have to submit it again anyway IMO.

Thank you smuggy for sharing your experience. This is much appreciated

[inspired_p]

If you dont submit a medical, USCIS normally sends a pink letter explaining that the medicals can be submitted during interview, or when you get an RFE. One point i noted from this note is that, it explicitly said that you should not mail the medicals unless there is an RFE, and that doing so may delay the case. i dont know what kind of delay they were talking about, but they were pretty clear its not recommended.

So in summary: You can. But from a note i got, sending it without RFE is discouraged by USCIS.

So in case you want to play it safe, you could include the medicals with the form. If the cases are ready to be approved within a year, there is a chance it will prevent an RFE (which can introduce a slight delay). Of late there were a few cases that were approved without interview on trackitt. So in case you are so lucky, submitting medicals now could avoid a delay.

Good Luck.

Thank you,lawyers are not yet ready to apply for me and I don't foresee my application being sent out this week, I will keep an eye out for the Nov 2020 bulletin and if that gives an indication of FAD progressing rapidly enough I can reevaluate.

[vsivarama]

Let's bring back the thread to original number crunching. Based on the numbers from the thread below, I came up with some predictions (for fun). I welcome experts to review and let me know the faults in my logic.

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-eb2-downgrade-rapid-forward-movement/

I made a few assumptions for my predictions.
i) USCIS will utilize every single visa number (What am I even smoking, right? LOL!)
ii) The entire spillover of 34k will be applied to EB-I 2&3 because of not enough demand in EB-ROW. No vertical spillover.
iii) I have the combined column of EB2 and Eb3 in the link. I broke it down to individual categories in EB2 and EB3 based on 4:1 allocation.
iv) For years 2009 and 2010, I factored in 20% downgrade. For year 2011 a 30% cases downgrade and 2012, 2013 and 2014 a 40% downgrade.

Below are the numbers I get.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eb2/Eb3 13348 30626 44572 44622 42880 51268
EB2 10678 24501 35658 35698 34304 41014
EB3 2670 6125 8914 8924 8576 10254

EB2(Adjusted) 8542.4 19600.8 24960.6 21418.8 20582.4 24608.4
EB3(Adjusted) 4805.6 11025.2 19611.4 23203.2 22297.6 26659.6

Based on this I see EB2 reaching April 2011 by end of this FY and EB3 reaching Dec 2011 by end of this FY.

Let the bashing begin!!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I am most interested in knowing what will happen by January for EB2I. That will set the tone for the rest of the year. Hoping that they will move FADs by 2-3 months until at least the January bulletin. Saying this especially for folks in 2009 until April 2010 who already filed AOS years back. Will be awesome if the queue is cleared of all the past AOS filers.

[longwaitgigu]

Let's bring back the thread to original number crunching. Based on the numbers from the thread below, I came up with some predictions (for fun). I welcome experts to review and let me know the faults in my logic.

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-eb2-downgrade-rapid-forward-movement/

I made a few assumptions for my predictions.
i) USCIS will utilize every single visa number (What am I even smoking, right? LOL!)
ii) The entire spillover of 34k will be applied to EB-I 2&3 because of not enough demand in EB-ROW. No vertical spillover.
iii) I have the combined column of EB2 and Eb3 in the link. I broke it down to individual categories in EB2 and EB3 based on 4:1 allocation.
iv) For years 2009 and 2010, I factored in 20% downgrade. For year 2011 a 30% cases downgrade and 2012, 2013 and 2014 a 40% downgrade.

Below are the numbers I get.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eb2/Eb3 13348 30626 44572 44622 42880 51268
EB2 10678 24501 35658 35698 34304 41014
EB3 2670 6125 8914 8924 8576 10254

EB2(Adjusted) 8542.4 19600.8 24960.6 21418.8 20582.4 24608.4
EB3(Adjusted) 4805.6 11025.2 19611.4 23203.2 22297.6 26659.6

Based on this I see EB2 reaching April 2011 by end of this FY and EB3 reaching Dec 2011 by end of this FY.

Let the bashing begin!!
Have u calculated dependents?

[idliman]

I also have a EB2 PD of March 2010. I got EAD in 2012. Changed jobs in 2014 using EAD and did NOT file anything i.e. AC21 since it's optional. My idea was I'm not a GC for the next 10 yrs so I might end up changing job couple more time.

so, no need to submit or submit if you want. When our PD is near we have to submit it again anyway IMO.
smuggymba, I think it is better for you if you proactively submit I485-J. This will force an RFE for medicals and G-325A when the I485J is approved in 3 months. The medicals are valid for 2 years. So by the time, you respond to medical RFE, it will be 4 to 6 months from now and you will be current.

Or you can stay put and wait for the RFE when dates are current.

[vsivarama]

@longwaitgigu - yes dependants are included.

[longwaitgigu]

@longwaitgigu - yes dependants are included.
Which dependent calculator u used
Uscis dependent calculator is
Eb2- 2.0 and eb3-2.1
Coz my number is around 44000 till December 2010 for both eb2 and eb3

[vsivarama]

Which dependent calculator u used
Uscis dependent calculator is
Eb2- 2.0 and eb3-2.1
Coz my number is around 44000 till December 2010 for both eb2 and eb3

If you add up my EB2 & EB3 for 2009 and 2010 you get ~44000.

[tomhagen]

If you add up my EB2 & EB3 for 2009 and 2010 you get ~44000.

I would say your calculations are on par and my basic calculations indicate FAD will reach DF if USCIS utilizes all the visa's. Basis for that is below.

[Sudhedup1]

Hello, need help on my case.

I filed my 485 recently for me and my wife on my own. Instead of sending one package with 2 applications, i sent 2 packages separately for 2 applications. Does it cause uscis reject my wife 485 application? Any help on this is greatly appreciated.

[rabp77]

Hello, need help on my case.

I filed my 485 recently for me and my wife on my own. Instead of sending one package with 2 applications, i sent 2 packages separately for 2 applications. Does it cause uscis reject my wife 485 application? Any help on this is greatly appreciated.

USCIS needs to process the principal applicant before processing the derivative applicants if they are mailed separately. If your wife is a derivative applicant, then her application will be rejected if its processed before the principal applicants i-485. You may be able to resend the same application (if nothing has changed), once you get a receipt for your i-485. I would not be worried too much, as long as she has another way to maintain lawful status (such as H4, her own H1b, L1/L2, or F1/F2 etc). Good luck.

[Sudhedup1]

Thank you. Hope they can match to primary.

[harpreetbhatti]

Hello All,

Need your thoughts on my current dilemma. My EB2-I priority date is current for final action as of Oct 1st. I responded to an RFE for medicals & Sup J in November, 2018. My sup J was approved in Feb 2020, my medicals expire mid-November, 2020. I changed my job in August, 2019 and haven't ported my application to current employer. I am currently engaging with an external Fragomen attorney who had once helped me through one of my previous employers just to cover my basis if I get an RFE before approval comes through, as my current employer is suggesting to go with my own attorney as company attorney didn't initiate my AOS application and they will support an provide all paperwork. This attorney is advising me to file for Sup J rather than waiting for an RFE.

I was thinking what if my AOS application is approved while my Sup J application is in mail to USCIS. Positive could be it might get officers attention and quick action on my pending I-485. Any thoughts. As usual, your suggestions are highly appreciated.

thanks,
H

[newyorker123]

Read somewhere that new PERM cannot be started/processed if offices are closed, as notices need to be placed, and employees need to be able to see the notices.
Is this true ?

[idliman]

Hello All,

Need your thoughts on my current dilemma. My EB2-I priority date is current for final action as of Oct 1st. I responded to an RFE for medicals & Sup J in November, 2018. My sup J was approved in Feb 2020, my medicals expire mid-November, 2020. I changed my job in August, 2019 and haven't ported my application to current employer. I am currently engaging with an external Fragomen attorney who had once helped me through one of my previous employers just to cover my basis if I get an RFE before approval comes through, as my current employer is suggesting to go with my own attorney as company attorney didn't initiate my AOS application and they will support an provide all paperwork. This attorney is advising me to file for Sup J rather than waiting for an RFE.

I was thinking what if my AOS application is approved while my Sup J application is in mail to USCIS. Positive could be it might get officers attention and quick action on my pending I-485. Any thoughts. As usual, your suggestions are highly appreciated.

thanks,
H
From my personal experience, the approval time for I485J was 2 to 3 months (before COVID). Normally all attorneys will wait for Supp J RFE, however your PD is current and your medical is about to expire. If I am in your situation, I might wait till the medical is expired (another month or so) and then you can go with new SuppJ. There is a *chance* that your application might be approved as it is. USCIS is not going to approve an application with expired medicals. You might ask your employer attorney what are the chances of application getting approved without a RFE. Explain what you are thinking and make a quick phone call. You can decide based on attorney opinion.

Don't worry a lot about RFE. Consider it as a progress in your case. Once an REF response is received, the GC approval comes quickly. You have waited so long. So another month or two (even though it is inconvenient) is no problemo. Nothing can go wrong in your case as you have attorneys supporting you. Cool down and Relax. Good Luck.

[idliman]

Read somewhere that new PERM cannot be started/processed if offices are closed, as notices need to be placed, and employees need to be able to see the notices.
Is this true ?
There was a clarification from DOL that notices can be placed on the door. See below.


Brandt Carter from the DOL Atlanta National Processing Center had clarified that – Posting Notice for PERM – If a business is all remote because of COVID, it’s okay to post notice on exterior door. This was posted in “Greg Siskind’s” twitter feed on 23JUL2020.
Please see:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1286363602178498561

[letmesee]

Let's bring back the thread to original number crunching. Based on the numbers from the thread below, I came up with some predictions (for fun). I welcome experts to review and let me know the faults in my logic.

https://www.happyschools.com/eb3-to-eb2-downgrade-rapid-forward-movement/

I made a few assumptions for my predictions.
i) USCIS will utilize every single visa number (What am I even smoking, right? LOL!)
ii) The entire spillover of 34k will be applied to EB-I 2&3 because of not enough demand in EB-ROW. No vertical spillover.
iii) I have the combined column of EB2 and Eb3 in the link. I broke it down to individual categories in EB2 and EB3 based on 4:1 allocation.
iv) For years 2009 and 2010, I factored in 20% downgrade. For year 2011 a 30% cases downgrade and 2012, 2013 and 2014 a 40% downgrade.

Below are the numbers I get.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eb2/Eb3 13348 30626 44572 44622 42880 51268
EB2 10678 24501 35658 35698 34304 41014
EB3 2670 6125 8914 8924 8576 10254

EB2(Adjusted) 8542.4 19600.8 24960.6 21418.8 20582.4 24608.4
EB3(Adjusted) 4805.6 11025.2 19611.4 23203.2 22297.6 26659.6

Based on this I see EB2 reaching April 2011 by end of this FY and EB3 reaching Dec 2011 by end of this FY.

Let the bashing begin!!

Looks very reasonable assumptions to me. I like how you used 20,30,40% downgrades to be realisitic. My downgrade assumptions are more like 20,40,80 since any date out of FD in current bulletin for EB2 would wanna start this process asap given the h1b wage level adjustment mess. the only thing that will limit downgrades is misinformation or lawyers processing capacity -- but once this month passes, lawyers will have free time on their hands to work on downgrades and i do not expect dates to change in Nov bulletin

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Looks very reasonable assumptions to me. I like how you used 20,30,40% downgrades to be realisitic. My downgrade assumptions are more like 20,40,80 since any date out of FD in current bulletin for EB2 would wanna start this process asap given the h1b wage level adjustment mess. the only thing that will limit downgrades is misinformation or lawyers processing capacity -- but once this month passes, lawyers will have free time on their hands to work on downgrades and i do not expect dates to change in Nov bulletin

The H1B wage shift is going to be temporary until the lawsuits are filed. This was just election time posturing for a sound bite saying see how we are protecting American jobs. When the lawsuit is filed and the changes are rolled back, there will be nary a peep about that.

[Zenzone]

The H1B wage shift is going to be temporary until the lawsuits are filed. This was just election time posturing for a sound bite saying see how we are protecting American jobs. When the lawsuit is filed and the changes are rolled back, there will be nary a peep about that.

+1. Very less likely it survives an imminent legal challenge, followed by a change of administration (potentially!). Odds are stacked against it from even going into effect to begin with even for a short window (given the target implementation date is 60 days).

[inspired_p]

+1. Very less likely it survives an imminent legal challenge, followed by a change of administration (potentially!). Odds are stacked against it from even going into effect to begin with even for a short window (given the target implementation date is 60 days).

Wage determination went into effect on October 8th. The 60 day window is for the H1-B speciality occupation rule which is a seperate rule.

Anyone who files LCA/PERM or has a pending LCA/PERM on or after 8th october 2020 will need to be paid according to the new wage determination. It's a raise for everyone on H1-B :)

[Zenzone]

Wage determination went into effect on October 8th. The 60 day window is for the H1-B speciality occupation rule which is a seperate rule.

Anyone who files LCA/PERM or has a pending LCA/PERM on or after 8th october 2020 will need to be paid according to the new wage determination. It's a raise for everyone on H1-B :)

Yes. I meant the specialty occupation rue when I said 60 days and thanks for the clarification.

ha! Needless to say that lots of ppl. will be bumped down in these new wage levels. For example, old L4 wage will now probably likely could be new L3 when you are up for next extension. In that case, its probably going to be okay still as long as the role itself is experienced and requires special/specific skills and education specific to it. However, if the increase in levels is too dramatic that an old L3 will now only qualify as a new L1, it might get tricky. One an still make the case that the new L1 is still around the median as such. So I think only time will tell how USCIS adjudicates using these new elevated levels.

There are also professions where wages are negotiated by union contracts. For example, tenured school teachers are paid that way. It will be interesting to see how those situations are approached. I personally have such friends who haven't had any RFE or rejection issues in the past (including the current DT admin.) as they were making the highest wages negotiated by their unions and everyone in the peer group in their school district made the same wage. What if those guys qualify only under the new L2 wage level for example.

[vsivarama]

Looks very reasonable assumptions to me. I like how you used 20,30,40% downgrades to be realisitic. My downgrade assumptions are more like 20,40,80 since any date out of FD in current bulletin for EB2 would wanna start this process asap given the h1b wage level adjustment mess. the only thing that will limit downgrades is misinformation or lawyers processing capacity -- but once this month passes, lawyers will have free time on their hands to work on downgrades and i do not expect dates to change in Nov bulletin

My assumptions for 20% in 2009 and 2010 are obvious. The dates are current in EB2 till May 15th, so I figured I will up the number by 10% and another 10% for subsequent years. The reason I use 40% for 2012 and onwards, is because not everyone who can downgrade will downgrade.

i) They may not have employer support,
ii) The dates may not be current by the time their company attorney's get to it.
iii) I have known people who backed out because of the ability to pay clause where they were not offered the prevailing wages.
iv) May be unable to file because of employer change and PERM pending.
v) Most important of all, if USCIS extrapolates the trend to be around 40-50% people downgrading this month they will likely NOT allow the filing dates to remain current past this month. The purpose of FD is to estimate and allow cases to be filed which may be current by end of the FY 21. To provide AOS to backlogged folks is not it's goal.

[gcconnect]

I expect downgrades from 2012 onwards will reach 80% in couple of months. People could not file this month will be motivated by the coming visa bulletins.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

What are you all thinking regarding release date of Nov Bulletin, this Fri or next?

[inspired_p]

What are you all thinking regarding release date of Nov Bulletin, this Fri or next?

I am guessing next week

[inspired_p]

v) Most important of all, if USCIS extrapolates the trend to be around 40-50% people downgrading this month they will likely NOT allow the filing dates to remain current past this month. The purpose of FD is to estimate and allow cases to be filed which may be current by end of the FY 21. To provide AOS to backlogged folks is not it's goal.

I am also thinking Filing dates will not be allowed by USCIS for the whole year. They will be open only for the next 2-3 months to get the applications in. After January they will rather move FADs based on the demand and processing bandwidth

[longwaitgigu]

I am going by i140 approved
Which in year-2010-
Eb2- 15,313x2
Using dependent calculator- 30,626
Eb3-6682x2.1
Using dependent calculator-14,032.2
That is giving me 44,658.2
Thats just for 2010
Correct me if I am wrong

[Kanmani]

From my personal experience, the approval time for I485J was 2 to 3 months (before COVID). Normally all attorneys will wait for Supp J RFE, however your PD is current and your medical is about to expire. If I am in your situation, I might wait till the medical is expired (another month or so) and then you can go with new SuppJ. There is a *chance* that your application might be approved as it is. USCIS is not going to approve an application with expired medicals. You might ask your employer attorney what are the chances of application getting approved without a RFE. Explain what you are thinking and make a quick phone call. You can decide based on attorney opinion.

Don't worry a lot about RFE. Consider it as a progress in your case. Once an REF response is received, the GC approval comes quickly. You have waited so long. So another month or two (even though it is inconvenient) is no problemo. Nothing can go wrong in your case as you have attorneys supporting you. Cool down and Relax. Good Luck.

I agree with idliman, as it is highly likely that they will look for new medicals. If there is going to be an RFE before approvals, let them shoot it for both J and medicals or if it is going to be a straight approval, let them do it without J or medicals. Anyways it takes weeks to receive RFE hard copy and weeks to re-activate our case after we respond back.

[usvisas]

Hello Everyone - My PD is May 2010. EB3 approved 1st and then EB2 in 2017. Both with same employer. Does anyone think of any possible reason that EB2 may get me the GC before EB3? (Meaning is there any reason I must file in EB2?)

[inspired_p]

Hello Everyone - My PD is May 2010. EB3 approved 1st and then EB2 in 2017. Both with same employer. Does anyone think of any possible reason that EB2 may get me the GC before EB3? (Meaning is there any reason I must file in EB2?)

I would suggest filing using EB3 petition based on what my 'hunch' is. FAD for EB3 will stay 3-4 month ahead of EB2 and that will give you 3-4 months more where your case might get picked and approved.
Worst case scenario is that you don't see any benefit between EB3 vs EB2. There will be no harm done.

[idliman]

Hello Everyone - My PD is May 2010. EB3 approved 1st and then EB2 in 2017. Both with same employer. Does anyone think of any possible reason that EB2 may get me the GC before EB3? (Meaning is there any reason I must file in EB2?)
I am assuming that you have not filed for AOS so far. EB2I is 01SEP09. Assuming that aggressive movement means 2 or 3 months per bulletin, the FA dates movement will be along the following lines for EB2I.
Nov Bulletin - 01NOV09 (average) ; 01DEC09 (optimistic)
Dec Bulletin - 01JAN10 (average) ; 01MAR10 (optimistic)
Jan Bulletin - 01MAR10 (average) ; 01JUN10 (optimistic)

For EB3I, the PD is already at 15JAN10. Movement will be at a minimum of 3 months per bulletin. So you will be current in EB3I first. So you should go with EB3I.

I keep repeating this again and again. So one more time: One of the main benefits of filing I-485 is the 180 day AC21 clock from the date of filing. After 180 days, you essentially become a "free agent" and the law protects you from out of status type situation. You can take up any job in "same or similar" category.

From the above analysis, the benefits of going with EB3I are obvious for your case. Send your application ASAP. For people who had applied for GC, the first goal should always be the 180 day clock. If GC comes before that then it is an added bonus. Opting for EB3I will give you GC at least 3 months earlier than EB2I.

With your PD, don't worry about retrogression. You have very low chances of getting affected either with EB3I or EB2I.

[harpreetbhatti]

I agree with idliman, as it is highly likely that they will look for new medicals. If there is going to be an RFE before approvals, let them shoot it for both J and medicals or if it is going to be a straight approval, let them do it without J or medicals. Anyways it takes weeks to receive RFE hard copy and weeks to re-activate our case after we respond back.

Could there be any impact in the future after my AOS has been approved for not filing Supp J or reporting employment change for my current employer/employment when AOS was approved?

thanks!

[android09]

I am assuming that you have not filed for AOS so far. EB2I is 01SEP09. Assuming that aggressive movement means 2 or 3 months per bulletin, the FA dates movement will be along the following lines for EB2I.
Nov Bulletin - 01NOV09 (average) ; 01DEC09 (optimistic)
Dec Bulletin - 01JAN10 (average) ; 01MAR10 (optimistic)
Jan Bulletin - 01MAR10 (average) ; 01JUN10 (optimistic)

For EB3I, the PD is already at 15JAN10. Movement will be at a minimum of 3 months per bulletin. So you will be current in EB3I first. So you should go with EB3I.

I keep repeating this again and again. So one more time: One of the main benefits of filing I-485 is the 180 day AC21 clock from the date of filing. After 180 days, you essentially become a "free agent" and the law protects you from out of status type situation. You can take up any job in "same or similar" category.

From the above analysis, the benefits of going with EB3I are obvious for your case. Send your application ASAP. For people who had applied for GC, the first goal should always be the 180 day clock. If GC comes before that then it is an added bonus. Opting for EB3I will give you GC at least 3 months earlier than EB2I.

With your PD, don't worry about retrogression. You have very low chances of getting affected either with EB3I or EB2I.

Idliman, do you anticipate movement for any early 2011 cases in this fiscal ? I know its akin to reading tea leaves but just curious on what the thoughts are if DoS thinks cases until May 2011 can be processed in the 2021 fiscal and USCIS accepting Filing Dates.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Hello Everyone - My PD is May 2010. EB3 approved 1st and then EB2 in 2017. Both with same employer. Does anyone think of any possible reason that EB2 may get me the GC before EB3? (Meaning is there any reason I must file in EB2?)

Since I am also May 2010, I had posed the question to my attorney, but I don't have EB3, just EB2 with the same employer who I have been with for 12+ years. She told me to stick to EB2 since I am not 'trapped' or anything with my employer and there is no pressing need for the EAD/AP as I still have my H1 active through next June.

I am still thinking regarding H1 renewal for which I will be eligible to do in January. Maybe by then the wage issues will be more crystallized to take a decision.

[idliman]

Idliman, do you anticipate movement for any early 2011 cases in this fiscal ? I know its akin to reading tea leaves but just curious on what the thoughts are if DoS thinks cases until May 2011 can be processed in the 2021 fiscal and USCIS accepting Filing Dates.
Boss, I am a fellow back-logger who' filed AOS in 2012; So no magic here; We just try to analyze based on available facts and logic. Time and time again, we have been disappointed by the VB movement.

USCIS sets the "DF" in October bulletin based on their internal calculation of where the dates will be at the start of the next year. The "DF" for EB2I is at 15MAY11. What we have seen is that we never reached the "DF" dates in the last so many years (because they had a good inventory from 2012). This year is different; You have a blockbuster SO. Honestly, the only bother for your PD is the processing capacity of USCIS. That depends on the will of the administration. The processing capacity can be increased by getting rid of interview requirement, waiver of new medical, waiving I485J, and so on. They can get back to how it was before 2015 or so.

How many GCs that USCIS processes, depends on the outcome of the US elections. If Joe Biden wins, all immigration guidelines will be relaxed at USCIS. If DT wins, then things will move at the same speed or slower. Unfortunately a lot of GCs will be wasted in that scenario. We can only predict the future from the past.

The movement in the next 3 bulletins should set the tone for the year.

[rabp77]

One strange thing is that there is not a single EB3/E2 approval for priority dates that got current in the october bulletin based cases on trackitt. Hoping we start seing approvals soon. Does anyone know how long its take to get approved for pre-adjudicated cases once the date becomes current ?

[cool_dude]

I am hearing that USCIS is rejecting downgrade applications without origin PERM?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I am hearing that USCIS is rejecting downgrade applications without origin PERM?

I honestly can't tell if this is just scare mongering or actually happening. Unless someone like Siskind or Immigrationgirl actually confirms that, it will be second hand info I guess.

[inspired_p]

Since I am also May 2010, I had posed the question to my attorney, but I don't have EB3, just EB2 with the same employer who I have been with for 12+ years. She told me to stick to EB2 since I am not 'trapped' or anything with my employer and there is no pressing need for the EAD/AP as I still have my H1 active through next June.

I am still thinking regarding H1 renewal for which I will be eligible to do in January. Maybe by then the wage issues will be more crystallized to take a decision.

Yes.I too have similar apprehension for the next H1-B extensions, but I think moving to EAD ( staying with the same employer) is always an option if staying on H1-B becomes impossible

[mknop1]

Hi everyone my priority date is June 2010 in EB3 category. I filed my I485 today. Based on the current situation can someone please give me high-level timelines? What are the key milestones from now on and when should I expect to have them processed? For example receipt notice in 2 to 3 weeks, next steps after that such as biometrics and then finally gc. I know this is all guesstimate but it would be really nice to have some idea about expected timelines. I have been in US for almost 20 years so I would really appreciate your insights on this long awaited opportunity for me and many others like me.

[JoinedToAsk]

I am hearing that USCIS is rejecting downgrade applications without origin PERM?

I asked this thing to 8 outside attorneys and my employer's attorney. It was a nightmare to get attorneys on the call, given they are working 24X7. They told me that one or two occurrences have happened, but the reasons were probably isolated to respective case. They shouldn't be thought of as the norm. My employer (blue chip firm) is filing ~5000 downgrade cases, and my attorney quoted "don't believe everything you read on the Internet." Here's one such example of fake news: https://www.am22tech.com/eb3-india-beats-eb2-in-uscis-gc-priority-race/.

My priority date is Nov 2010, and I am filing EB2->EB3 downgrade. The processing queue can be changed to premium after USCIS receipt.

[rabp77]

Hi everyone my priority date is June 2010 in EB3 category. I filed my I485 today. Based on the current situation can someone please give me high-level timelines? What are the key milestones from now on and when should I expect to have them processed? For example receipt notice in 2 to 3 weeks, next steps after that such as biometrics and then finally gc. I know this is all guesstimate but it would be really nice to have some idea about expected timelines. I have been in US for almost 20 years so I would really appreciate your insights on this long awaited opportunity for me and many others like me.

Please check https://citizenpath.com/form-i-485-processing-time/

Most of that is accurate, except the final step (receiving GC), which is accurate for most other non-backlogged countries. For india, the time for the last step tends to be more unpredictable. Hoping thats not the case this time. Good luck.

[sportsfan33]

Kanmani,

Nice to see you here! Congratulations on getting greened :) Long time standing!

Cheers

[radheys]

I am hearing that USCIS is rejecting downgrade applications without origin PERM?

USCIS rejecting downgrade applications without original PERM is total BS......i think some ROW folks are trying to spread this misinformation on trackit to discourage EB2 folks.......

[cool_dude]

USCIS rejecting downgrade applications without original PERM is total BS......i think some ROW folks are trying to spread this misinformation on trackit to discourage EB2 folks.......

Thats what i was thinking.Since my lawyer has not said anything and i work for fortune 100 and its big law firm.

[raradhya]

When is it safe to change employer after filing I-485 (AOS) application. with Covid sitution i am thinking of finding a safe and better place to work.
is it 6 months or immediately after getting EAD and/or AP
what will happen if there are layoffs while the application is still pending with less then 6 months from filing.

[raradhya]

we have 2 separate Alien numbers, one for me (in I-140 approval as well as H1b extension approval) and a different one for my wife (in H4 approval and EAD card)
while doing the medicals i am required to provide alien number of the form. which one to provide for my wife's application?

[nbk1976]

When is it safe to change employer after filing I-485 (AOS) application. with Covid sitution i am thinking of finding a safe and better place to work.
is it 6 months or immediately after getting EAD and/or AP
what will happen if there are layoffs while the application is still pending with less then 6 months from filing.

If the I-485 is pending for 180 days, you can under the AC21 Act move to another employer and do similar work without the new employer filing another I-140. If you want to move before the 180 days, the new employer must file a fresh I-140.

If you are laid off before 180 days, it won't affect your AOS as long as the employer does not notify the USCIS by revoking the I-140. Most employers will revoke it if they are laying you off unless they plan to rehire you when your case becomes current and ready to be adjudicated.

Now, if the employer revokes the I-140 only after180 days, but you were indeed terminated before the 180 days, that is (at least for me) a gray area. If you are able to find another similar job, you might be OK, but that is something you need to ask a good lawyer.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

we have 2 separate Alien numbers, one for me (in I-140 approval as well as H1b extension approval) and a different one for my wife (in H4 approval and EAD card)
while doing the medicals i am required to provide alien number of the form. which one to provide for my wife's application?

She of course needs to provide her A number since it's her medical form.

[bones20]

According to Fragomen:
1. Your alien number is the one in i140/i797A
2. dependent wife on h4 does not have alien number. the one on her h4 ead should not be mentioned.

[skpanda]

She of course needs to provide her A number since it's her medical form.

My doc did not put A# in the I693 form. Does it matter?

[raradhya]

She of course needs to provide her A number since it's her medical form.

Thank you. My spouse has an Alien number from her I-140 approval. but now she is on H4 with EAD. in both cases she has the same Alien number. how ever she is not he primary applicant for filing AOS now. so i am not sure which Ailen number to use. because some of my friends do not have a Alien number assigned to their spouse they all use the primary applicant's number.

my PD is DEC 2010 if that matters.

[inspired_p]

we have 2 separate Alien numbers, one for me (in I-140 approval as well as H1b extension approval) and a different one for my wife (in H4 approval and EAD card)
while doing the medicals i am required to provide alien number of the form. which one to provide for my wife's application?

This is what my lawyer told me. H4-EAD Alien # is a temporary number and they will not use it in the applications. My wife had a A# based on her own I-140 approval , and that A# is permanent and hence she can use it. If spouse(dependent) has never filed I-140 then Alien # is supposed to be kept blank .

[raradhya]

If the I-485 is pending for 180 days, you can under the AC21 Act move to another employer and do similar work without the new employer filing another I-140. If you want to move before the 180 days, the new employer must file a fresh I-140.

If you are laid off before 180 days, it won't affect your AOS as long as the employer does not notify the USCIS by revoking the I-140. Most employers will revoke it if they are laying you off unless they plan to rehire you when your case becomes current and ready to be adjudicated.

Now, if the employer revokes the I-140 only after180 days, but you were indeed terminated before the 180 days, that is (at least for me) a gray area. If you are able to find another similar job, you might be OK, but that is something you need to ask a good lawyer.

Thank you for clarification

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

This is what my lawyer told me. H4-EAD Alien # is a temporary number and they will not use it in the applications. My wife had a A# based on her own I-140 approval , and that A# is permanent and hence she can use it. If spouse(dependent) has never filed I-140 then Alien # is supposed to be kept blank .

My wife had an OPT EAD, H4 EAD and now H1. The A number is constant in that. I have no idea if the first time you get an H4 EAD without having another A number before, it will be 'temporary'. It does not make any sense to me. My understanding was that the A number that USCIS generates for an individual is a unique number that persists among different applications.

[inspired_p]

My wife had an OPT EAD, H4 EAD and now H1. The A number is constant in that. I have no idea if the first time you get an H4 EAD without having another A number before, it will be 'temporary'. It does not make any sense to me. My understanding was that the A number that USCIS generates for an individual is a unique number that persists among different applications.

I have F1 EAD and I-140 EAD , these are not the same. My wife has F1 EAD which had a different number, I-140 and H4 EAD ( which was after I-140) are the same.

[GCWait2011]

One quick question, My EB2 filing date is current as per filing chart, Can I downgrade to EB3 by filing I-140 and 485 concurrently ?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I have F1 EAD and I-140 EAD , these are not the same. My wife has F1 EAD which had a different number, I-140 and H4 EAD ( which was after I-140) are the same.

Strange, but par for the course when it comes to USCIS.

[powerofzero]

Hello,

i am hoping someone here can advice me on whether to downgrade to EB3. My PD is May2012 in EB2I. I initially thought downgrading to EB3 was a no brainer assuming i could always interfile with EB2I I-140 if EB2I ever moves ahead of EB3I. However, my lawyer told me the following:

"Filing an EB-3 I-140 does not put your earlier EB-2 I-140 at risk. You will have two I-140s with the same priority date, the only difference being the preference category. If EB-2 moves back in front of EB-3, keep in mind that there is no mechanism in place at USCIS to change the underlying I-140 of a pending I-485. Although we can try doing that by sending in a letter to USCIS asking them to use a different I-140 for a pending I-485, there’s no telling if they will agree to do so. Given that, you need to have the expectation that USCIS is going to adjudicate the I-485 based on the I-140 the I-485 is initially filed on.

Note that almost everyone with an EB-2 priority date is now requesting to change to EB-3. The likely outcome of this is that the EB-3 quota may quickly slow down, and EB-2 will once again be faster. Even so, we really don’t know which category will be faster six months from now. There is no way to optimize this by trying to jump back and forth between EB-2 and EB-3 as the visa bulletin changes. Again, thousands of other applicants will be trying to do the same thing. If you choose to file an EB-3 petition and I-485 in October, then you must be committed to remaining in the EB-3 queue."


The part about committing to EB3 perpetually is a bit concerning. Can someone please help me navigate this?

[smuggymba]

smuggymba, I think it is better for you if you proactively submit I485-J. This will force an RFE for medicals and G-325A when the I485J is approved in 3 months. The medicals are valid for 2 years. So by the time, you respond to medical RFE, it will be 4 to 6 months from now and you will be current.

Or you can stay put and wait for the RFE when dates are current.

good point idliman...will take action.

[tomhagen]

good point idliman...will take action.

I second what Idliman said. Filed AOS first time and my attorney sent the following docs for me and wife (except 485J because she is dependent)

I-485
I-485J
I-765
I-131
I-944
G-28

He said when they approve 485J and if they think your date will become current then they will issue RFE for Medicals.

[2011Feb]

Hi Gurus,

My lawyer applied for 485 on Oct 1st. But haven't received the receipt notice yet. Wondering how long will it take to receive receipt notice. I'm just worried of weather something went wrong.

Does any one applied and got the receipt this month?

[idliman]

One quick question, My EB2 filing date is current as per filing chart, Can I downgrade to EB3 by filing I-140 and 485 concurrently ?
Yes. It is called Transfer of Underlying Basis in USCIS language or Interfiling. One of the requirements is that your I-485 should have no breaks in continued eligibility. Note that Interfiling also can apply to retention of PDs via a separate procedure so Transfer of Underlying Basis is a more specific term for downgrade.

Your PD is eligible for both EB2I & EB3I only on "DF" basis. You have to decide whether you want to do transfer the basis now or wait and do it later. Anyway, file AOS as soon as possible (EB2I or EB3I). No one can guarantee that the "DF" will remain open next month. Even top attorneys quoting "DT admin's" past actions recommend filing AOS before the end of October. You never know when the window will open again. If you want to better understand the urgency, talk to someone with EB2I 2010 PDs who missed by mere days and waited many years to file for AOS. Good Luck.

[bones20]

One quick question, My EB2 filing date is current as per filing chart, Can I downgrade to EB3 by filing I-140 and 485 concurrently ?

whats your PD? My PD is April 2010. Fragomen suggested to not downgrade for now. Please do let me know what you end up doing thanks!

[getsaby]

Thank you. My spouse has an Alien number from her I-140 approval. but now she is on H4 with EAD. in both cases she has the same Alien number. how ever she is not he primary applicant for filing AOS now. so i am not sure which Ailen number to use. because some of my friends do not have a Alien number assigned to their spouse they all use the primary applicant's number.

my PD is DEC 2010 if that matters.

Even my spouse has A# from H4 EAD, when I asked the lawyer why not using A in 485, here is her response

We only list the A-number if it is in relation to an underlying petition for the I-485 application. So, they are fine as is.

[tomhagen]

Hi Gurus,

My lawyer applied for 485 on Oct 1st. But haven't received the receipt notice yet. Wondering how long will it take to receive receipt notice. I'm just worried of weather something went wrong.

Does any one applied and got the receipt this month?

During the pandemic time people were receiving the receipts after 3 weeks. With so much of increased work load and shortage of resources, I would say it will take 4-6 before any one will start receiving the receipts. My AOS is sent on 10/06 and received by Texas Service Center on 10/07. I am also waiting

[2011Feb]

During the pandemic time people were receiving the receipts after 3 weeks. With so much of increased work load and shortage of resources, I would say it will take 4-6 before any one will start receiving the receipts. My AOS is sent on 10/06 and received by Texas Service Center on 10/07. I am also waiting


It's going to be some time before they start issuing receipt notices. It may be 3-4 weeks according to my attorney.

Thanks. I was told by my lawyer, it will take two weeks. Hoping to get receipt notice sooner.

[Spurs19]

I have an update that my I-1485 case was received at my local office. My PD is 12/4/2009 and I have approved EB-2 and EB-3 I-140 applications and my interviews are completed. Does this mean I'll get a medical RFE from my local office. I thought NBC usually sends out the medical RFEs?

[newyorker123]

Gurus,
Is there any realistic chance of further EB2 filing date movements to 2012 in the coming few months ?

[tomhagen]

Gurus,
Is there any realistic chance of further EB2 filing date movements to 2012 in the coming few months ?

That really depends on volume of the applications USCIS is going to receive and number of downgrades. It is anybody’s guess at this moment. We will get clarity only by December

[android09]

Gurus,
Is there any realistic chance of further EB2 filing date movements to 2012 in the coming few months ?

Let’s all hope it moves further and helps lots of folks in 2012 and 2013 !

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Gurus,
Is there any realistic chance of further EB2 filing date movements to 2012 in the coming few months ?

I don't know if they will know until a few months into FY2021.

Since EB2 was current until May 1, 2010 before, we can assume most have their AOS filed until that PD. So that leaves people from May 2010 - May 2011. If they can compute how much total spillover from different categories is available for EB2 in FY2021 and get a handle on the number of defections to EB3, they may be able to move the filing further to make sure there is no wastage.

[inspired_p]

I don't know if they will know until a few months into FY2021.

Since EB2 was current until May 1, 2010 before, we can assume most have their AOS filed until that PD. So that leaves people from May 2010 - May 2011. If they can compute how much total spillover from different categories is available for EB2 in FY2021 and get a handle on the number of defections to EB3, they may be able to move the filing further to make sure there is no wastage.

We do know that there are many of the 2012 filers still waiting for their GC. I think around 15K are still in waiting which represents upto May 2010. Considering same amount to file for May 2010 to May 2011 , i think the expected spillover of 30K is used up till May 2011. I do not think EB2-I FAD will move beyond May 2011. I am also quite sure that Eb3-I FAD will not reach Jan 2015 this year. If the spillover is equally distributed between EB1 , EB2 and EB3 as it is said to be I predict EB2-I to get all used up till May 2011 and EB3 might get upto end of 2013 ish

[sandya0823]

I am new to this forum, I need your input my question below.

I work for EMPLOYER B now and when my PD with earlier company EMPLOYER A and my PD got current they agreed to file my i485 /i485 j/ EAD/AP and they asked me to come back to their company as they will rehire me. I agreed to this approach so they filed i485 / i485j . Now I got EAD and got another offer with EMPLOYER C... can I move and work for EMPLOYER C until I get my GC and then I can move to EMPLOYER A. please let me know

-Sandhya

[GCWait2011]

whats your PD? My PD is April 2010. Fragomen suggested to not downgrade for now. Please do let me know what you end up doing thanks!

My PD is April 2011 and I already submitted the documents for EB3 downgrade.

[bones20]

My PD is April 2011 and I already submitted the documents for EB3 downgrade.

thanks. So in your case, that was the only option available for filing AOS.

[dexter2010]

Friends,

I have an odd predicament. My PD is 12/29/2010. In the PERM the Job Title offered was "Senior Computer Programmer Analyst" with an SOC Code 15-1132 and a pay of 93K. My I-140 was filed under EB2. Now that my filing date is current and Im eligible to file my AOS/EAD/AP applications, my attorneys are advising that my case would be high risk as the job that Im currently doing along with my title is much higher that what's in the PERM and USCIS may reject my application. I'm in a Senior Leadership role (Large IT services company) with a base pay that is much higher than the 93K associated with the PERM. They are recommending that we file a new PERM petition that aligns with my current title and job description. I would think given the time it takes from PERM to AOS, career progression is obvious. Would USCIS really reject such an application saying this candidate will not take a demotion from a leadership role to become a programmer.

Has anyone experienced this? Appreciate any advise I can get.

[GCWait2011]

thanks. So in your case, that was the only option available for filing AOS.

I had the option to go with EB2 or EB3. I decided to go with EB3 because my child is near to age 21.

[ferric]

Guys, just got my GC in the mail today. A little under 12 years from when I applied and almost 2 years after I joined this forum.

Just wanted to thank everyone here for their amazing help and support over the last couple of years.

Especially YTEleven - man, thanks for encouraging everyone to downgrade a couple years ago when EB3 forward movement began, your advice was spot on

Spec/redsox — thanks for your detailed analysis, data collection posts and help understanding the minutiae of immigrant law

And finally to Q for not letting this community devolve like trackitt and providing a place for everyone to come and ask questions and expect reasonable answers without trolls or hate. Thank you!

Congrats also to everyone else that just got greened.

[inspired_p]

Guys, just got my GC in the mail today. A little under 12 years from when I applied and almost 2 years after I joined this forum.

Just wanted to thank everyone here for their amazing help and support over the last couple of years.

Especially YTEleven - man, thanks for encouraging everyone to downgrade a couple years ago when EB3 forward movement began, your advice was spot on

Spec/redsox — thanks for your detailed analysis, data collection posts and help understanding the minutiae of immigrant law

And finally to Q for not letting this community devolve like trackitt and providing a place for everyone to come and ask questions and expect reasonable answers without trolls or hate. Thank you!

Congrats also to everyone else that just got greened.


Congratulations! EB3 downgrade cut at least 4-5 months of wait time !

[YTeleven]

Congratulations Ferric.

[gkjppp]

Guys, just got my GC in the mail today. A little under 12 years from when I applied and almost 2 years after I joined this forum.

Just wanted to thank everyone here for their amazing help and support over the last couple of years.

Especially YTEleven - man, thanks for encouraging everyone to downgrade a couple years ago when EB3 forward movement began, your advice was spot on

Spec/redsox — thanks for your detailed analysis, data collection posts and help understanding the minutiae of immigrant law

And finally to Q for not letting this community devolve like trackitt and providing a place for everyone to come and ask questions and expect reasonable answers without trolls or hate. Thank you!

Congrats also to everyone else that just got greened.

Congratulations.

[qesehmk]

Hi ferric, I am very happy for you. Congratulations.

The entire 2020 howsoever dark has also brought a silverlining for tens of thousands of backlogged folks. I truly hope this particularly turns out beneficial for those whose kids are aging out.

The ones that are out of the window for now - don't despair. IMHO country caps will be gone in a few years no matter who is president.


Guys, just got my GC in the mail today. A little under 12 years from when I applied and almost 2 years after I joined this forum.

Just wanted to thank everyone here for their amazing help and support over the last couple of years.

Especially YTEleven - man, thanks for encouraging everyone to downgrade a couple years ago when EB3 forward movement began, your advice was spot on

Spec/redsox — thanks for your detailed analysis, data collection posts and help understanding the minutiae of immigrant law

And finally to Q for not letting this community devolve like trackitt and providing a place for everyone to come and ask questions and expect reasonable answers without trolls or hate. Thank you!

Congrats also to everyone else that just got greened.

[GCMirage]

Gurus and other experts-

Are you aware of any instances where applicants were allowed to revert to previously approved EB2 I140 and were Greened in EB2 after filing a downgrade to EB3 and filing 485 concurrently ?

My attorney was very clear that if we apply for downgrade now then there is likely no going back to EB2.

[YTeleven]

Gurus and other experts-

Are you aware of any instances where applicants were allowed to revert to previously approved EB2 I140 and were Greened in EB2 after filing a downgrade to EB3 and filing 485 concurrently ?

My attorney was very clear that if we apply for downgrade now then there is likely no going back to EB2.
The people whose PD is after May 2011 in EB2 and not eligible for filing 485 this month has only one option i.e. downgrade to EB3 and file 485 concurrently.. based on my understanding of EB3I Q.. I can say that they will never ever get into a scenario of looking back to EB2 again in future.. if they want they can amend the EB2 permanently to EB3.. in current political scenario one must need a backup for the H1B and that is 485 AOS status..

[GCWait2011]

My attorney also said the same. Once we file new I140 for EB3 alone with 485, is highly unlikely that uscis will let us switch back to EB2. My attorney said for Chinese clients they have numerous letters requesting switch to EB2 when it pulled ahead but they never even received an acknowledgment of the request.

This is strange. My attorney said there are no issues, they can switch back to EB2-485 if dates become current.

[delguy]

do you know if we have to send the physical copies of I-485 and other forms to imm lawyers or scanned copies will do?

[inspired_p]

do you know if we have to send the physical copies of I-485 and other forms to imm lawyers or scanned copies will do?

My personal experience based on what my lawyers said. Due to COVID , scanned copies of forms with signatures are allowed, we have to make sure we keep the originals safe if they are asked at a later point

[GCMirage]

It depends on the attorney. For my attorney everything is electronic except for passport photos.

Some of my friends had print and overnight hard copies of all the documentation including forms.

[GCMirage]

Thanks YTEleven. My PD is Aug-2012 so am downgrading to file AOS. If I am understanding your comment correctly you are implying that EB3 will/maybe ahead of EB2 so we will not need to go back EB2 ever. Please correct or confirm my interpretation.

Question: if very high % downgrade wouldn’t that declog EB2 and move all that demand into EB3 allowing EB2 to race ahead?

[incredible]

Guys, just got my GC in the mail today. A little under 12 years from when I applied and almost 2 years after I joined this forum.

Just wanted to thank everyone here for their amazing help and support over the last couple of years.

Especially YTEleven - man, thanks for encouraging everyone to downgrade a couple years ago when EB3 forward movement began, your advice was spot on

Spec/redsox — thanks for your detailed analysis, data collection posts and help understanding the minutiae of immigrant law

And finally to Q for not letting this community devolve like trackitt and providing a place for everyone to come and ask questions and expect reasonable answers without trolls or hate. Thank you!

Congrats also to everyone else that just got greened.

Congratulations. For the benefit of all, can you please share some key information.


When did you file your 485 (was it couple of years back through downgrade)? (I am assuming your PD became current in this month's bulletin for FAD?
When was the last medical and 485 J submitted? Did you receive any RFE in anticipation of FAD becoming current in October bulletin?
And finally when it did become current in October's bulletin, did you have to do anything or USCIS automatically processed your case within the first 20 days of the month.

-Thanks

[2011Feb]

Premium Processing Fee Increase Effective Oct. 19, 2020

https://www.uscis.gov/news/premium-processing-fee-increase-effective-oct-19-2020

Looks like for for us it's going to be $2500. Does the premium processing available for EAD ? It's not clear what are the forms they will accept for premium.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Looks like for for us it's going to be $2500. Does the premium processing available for EAD ? It's not clear what are the forms they will accept for premium.

I mean... it explains that in the same link that was provided.

Pub. L. No. 116-159 increases the fee for Form I-907, Request for Premium Processing, from $1,440 to $2,500, for all filings except those from petitioners filing Form I-129, Petition for a Nonimmigrant Worker, requesting H-2B or R-1 nonimmigrant status. The premium processing fee for petitioners filing Form I-129 requesting H-2B or R-1 nonimmigrant status is increasing from $1,440 to $1,500.

[inspired_p]

Looks like for for us it's going to be $2500. Does the premium processing available for EAD ? It's not clear what are the forms they will accept for premium.

Pub. L. No. 116-159 also gives USCIS the ability to expand premium processing to additional forms and benefit requests, but USCIS is not yet taking that action. Any expansion of premium processing to other forms will be implemented as provided in the legislation.

[Umesh1209]

Does anyone got RFE for medicals whose priority date (eb2) is in December 09? It seems like medicals are valid for only two years, and I got RFE for my medicals in 2018 june, and responded in July 2018. is it advisable to get the medicals ahead of time given current situation?
I got my RFE last Dec, responsed in Feb for me n my wife. I got another RFE only for me in Jun saying they lost my response n asked me to respond again.

[ferric]

Congratulations. For the benefit of all, can you please share some key information.


When did you file your 485 (was it couple of years back through downgrade)? (I am assuming your PD became current in this month's bulletin for FAD?
When was the last medical and 485 J submitted? Did you receive any RFE in anticipation of FAD becoming current in October bulletin?
And finally when it did become current in October's bulletin, did you have to do anything or USCIS automatically processed your case within the first 20 days of the month.

-Thanks

Yes, downgrade from EB2 and I’d never filed AOS before

PD: 12/31/2009
RD: 1/29/2019 (including medical)
Interview: 8/2019 (submitted 485J)
Approved: 10/9/2020
Card received: 10/17/2020

No RFE on 485, but I did get an RFE on my AP renewal in April. Didn’t have to do anything to process my case, just asked Emma agent for status update and the next day the status changed to card production

Happy to answer any other questions

[inspired_p]

No idea why, it was the case with almost all the applicants that went in with this attorney.

Just can't do anything when it is with the lawyers. I thought we are all ready to file my I-140 in PP , I-485 , I-765 , I-131 last week, but for some reason it is still not applied , and PP fee increased starting today. I feel I lost $1020 for no reason. I am now only hoping my application gets postmarked before USCIS decides to ask for separate fees for EAD and AP.

[incredible]

Yes, downgrade from EB2 and I’d never filed AOS before

PD: 12/31/2009
RD: 1/29/2019 (including medical)
Interview: 8/2019 (submitted 485J)
Approved: 10/9/2020
Card received: 10/17/2020

No RFE on 485, but I did get an RFE on my AP renewal in April. Didn’t have to do anything to process my case, just asked Emma agent for status update and the next day the status changed to card production

Happy to answer any other questions

thank you. This helps a lot.

[longwaitgigu]

Anyone working with fragomen
They have still not got i485 and i944 form ready for us to sign
With our oct 2010 eb3 PD- we r trying to push medicals too as I dont want RFE later and then delay in issuing gc if at all our interview gets waived. We r not submitting ead and ap either as we both have our h1bs. But they look hesitant for medicals. I think I have reasoning to submit medicals now.
My question is
For medicals - do I have to wait for my attorney to get i485 draft ready and then take appointment.
Or just start right away the process and then convince them

[inspired_p]

Anyone working with fragomen
They have still not got i485 and i944 form ready for us to sign
With our oct 2010 eb3 PD- we r trying to push medicals too as I dont want RFE later and then delay in issuing gc if at all our interview gets waived. We r not submitting ead and ap either as we both have our h1bs. But they look hesitant for medicals. I think I have reasoning to submit medicals now.
My question is
For medicals - do I have to wait for my attorney to get i485 draft ready and then take appointment.
Or just start right away the process and then convince them

There should be no convincing needed IMHO. My lawyer strongly advised against medicals ( oct 2010 PD here as well) , but asked if we have medicals to add to the package in the final email conversation. I would say get the medicals done and add it to your application. They should not be saying no anyways, it does not cost anything nor they have to do any additional work.

[1312011_eb2I]

https://www.yahoo.com/money/coronavirus-stimulus-white-house-ups-offer-ahead-of-pelosi-tuesday-deadline-143916866.html
Stimulus talks are on AGAIN. Do you think stopping FB spillover is included? if yes, will USCIS pull back dates this (oct) month.

[longwaitgigu]

I dont know the exact process
Can u please guide me.
Do I have to wait for them to do final i485 draft, then do medicals ? Or
Should I take my appointment and get it ready?

[gcconnect]

Before forms ready , i booked the Doctor appointment and gets medicals done. By the time Medicals sealed cover ready, got forms from attorney and sent both signed forms and medicals .
if you plan to send this month, calculate the time - appointment booking, LAB results-> Doctor and sealed cover on your hand, Forms and medicals send to Attorney . If i am not wrong, last date to send USCIS on OCT'29 from your attorney to reach this month.

[Zenzone]

https://www.yahoo.com/money/coronavirus-stimulus-white-house-ups-offer-ahead-of-pelosi-tuesday-deadline-143916866.html
Stimulus talks are on AGAIN. Do you think stopping FB spillover is included? if yes, will USCIS pull back dates this (oct) month.

This has been answered several times before. Any stimulus bill negotiated will be brand new and had to be passed again in the House. This has been confirmed by both Dems and GOP. Also, for any substantial deal going through the chances are very slim.

[Zenzone]

Anyone working with fragomen
They have still not got i485 and i944 form ready for us to sign
With our oct 2010 eb3 PD- we r trying to push medicals too as I dont want RFE later and then delay in issuing gc if at all our interview gets waived. We r not submitting ead and ap either as we both have our h1bs. But they look hesitant for medicals. I think I have reasoning to submit medicals now.
My question is
For medicals - do I have to wait for my attorney to get i485 draft ready and then take appointment.
Or just start right away the process and then convince them

You can do the medicals separately. But if I were you, I will not do the Medicals now.

[1312011_eb2I]

Thank you.
Pelosi has give 48hrs to GOP to provide a plan.
I am worried since my attorney has not filed my application. He is planning to submit by End of this Month.

[Zenzone]

Thank you.
Pelosi has give 48hrs to GOP to provide a plan.
I am worried since my attorney has not filed my application. He is planning to submit by End of this Month.

Even then you have this month to file. Also, retroactive removal of fiscal 2021 SO is not going to happen. This has been also answered by some lawyers including Greg Siskind. So I won't get anxi. about it right now. This year's SO is something EB community can go to bank with. Its real, IMHO.

[inspired_p]

Even then you have this month to file. Also, retroactive removal of fiscal 2021 SO is not going to happen. This has been also answered by some lawyers including Greg Siskind. So I won't get anxi. about it right now. This year's SO is something EB community can go to bank with. Its real, IMHO.

It is as real as USCIS wants it to be. Wasting numbers is not a new thing. Let's really hope that at least 50% of the available visas are issued in all the categories.

[Zenzone]

It is as real as USCIS wants it to be. Wasting numbers is not a new thing. Let's really hope that at least 50% of the available visas are issued in all the categories.

I didn't talk about the potential for visa wastage at all here. The question was about the language in the HEROES Act.

[vsivarama]

Thank you.
Pelosi has give 48hrs to GOP to provide a plan.
I am worried since my attorney has not filed my application. He is planning to submit by End of this Month.

odds of SO being pushed back to FB are about the same of Getting S386 passed in the senate. I would worry about SO being wasted than losing it. So if you want to worry about something at least worry about the right stuff!! LOL! Just to lighten the mood here.

[1312011_eb2I]

Thank you all for clarifying. If we sure shot will get SO , then I will stop worrying about such news.

[inspired_p]

Thank you all for clarifying. If we sure shot will get SO , then I will stop worrying about such news.

All the best. The best we can do is make sure we get our applications in before this month end and get in queue.

[redsox2009]

I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.


I personally wanted to Thank Q and Spec for all their efforts and help in getting this community move forward. I learned a lot through this forum and I helped some of my friends.

Throughout the journey, I made some mistakes, but in the last mile, I made sure I was one step ahead of the game and got my 485 approved.

My first PERM was supposed to be in 2006 and I did not push my management to get the Perm done and in 2007 when I was ready for PERM I requested my employer if there are any unused PERMS which I could use. Employer mentioned to me there are 3 PERMS and I can use them if I my experience falls in any one of the categories to support the documentation. I was out of the country and when I returned back, guess what was new policy!!! PERMS cannot be transferable.

In 2007 my PERM started and due to the economic meltdown and recession, my perm was on hold. In 2009 my company lawyer literally HUNTED me down and begged me to file PERM, I was so absorbed in the carrier goals and aspects and forgot about PERM. If I have to say THANKS she will be the first person. My management put tons of hurdles to stop the PERM and she fought on my behalf and got the PERM done in a timely fashion. At one point my company attorney threatened the company that the company is liable for a civil lawsuit if the company doesn't act accordingly.

In 2011, a bright ambitious guy moved to a new company and in the process, he forgot to push HR about the PERM. Guess who missed the GC filing slot in 2012. You guessed it correctly.

I learned my lesson the hard way and since then I focussed much of my time with family and started running the numbers when and where the dates are and started using this forum for more analysis and forecasting.

In 2014, I changed the company and made sure my PERM was started after the 90 day wait period.

Around Jan 2018, I was 100% confident that by September 2018, my dates will become current under the EB3 category. However, I was a couple of months early to my predictions. My date became current in Nov 2018. Around March 2018, I went to my company management and requested to start the downgrade process and the company HR said the company policy is "no two I-140's for the same employee". It took me 6 months to request them to change and show them the cost-benefit and get the approval. Around Oct 2018, my company finally approved my second I-140 i.e. to downgrade the application. In Nov 2018 My company immigration attorney sent me a form to sign the I-140, I told them "I will sign the document after seeing the Visa Bulletin" and I told them I'm more than 100% confident that my date under EB3 will be current. In a couple of days, Bulletin got released and my date became current. Since I fought and got my downgrade process, some of my colleagues took advantage of the new policy and they got their downgrading started. Around Dec 2018, I filed my I-485.

Believe me, since then I made numerous calls to USCIS to get the ball rolling. My fingerprint was delayed by a week, and made sure the I got fingerprint within the next 10 days. My interview dates were delayed by a month, guess who was on the phone. I did not hesitate to call them when I felt something was needed. This month My final action date was current and I called USCIS on OCT1st and raised the SR. This was my last mile, I was one step ahead of the game plan since Jan 2018.

When some of my colleagues were filing for their PERMS, I literally begged them to file PERM ASAP, and not to argue with the management about the EB2/EB3 category. I advised many folks to file PERM and get the date locked. I advised them if you miss a date by a single day, it could lead you to wait for a month or decade. Some of my colleagues followed my advice and some ignored my advice.

Believe me on Sept 24th when Bulletin was released my phone kept ringing from morning 7:30 AM to 11:30 PM, some of my colleagues called to Thank me and some to know the process of downgrading, some of my friends called to learn the process and asking my inputs. Around Sept 29th, my company said they changed the Policy back to " No two I-140's", but I kept telling my colleagues to keep pushing and some managers were directly in touch with me on how to get the ball rolling, etc..
A couple of days later the company gave in and allowed my colleagues to downgrade the applications. Since Sept 24th I'm getting calls from some of my old friends and they wanted to know the process and asking for help in getting their company to agree to downgrade. I kept calling them and advising accordingly.

Lessons I learned during my GC process. Never give up and keep your spirits high up.

1.) Never delay in filing the PERM.
2.) if you change the company, act fast and swiftly in getting your PERM filed and approved. Always assume your date will be current in the next bulletin or else you will sloppy with filing.
3.) When your date is current, and after you file I-485, keep up with activities and make sure the USCIS is working on your application.
4.) When talking to USCIS, you don't tell them what should happen, ask them where your file should be (in which stage). If your file is behind, I'm pretty sure they will feel guilty and work on your file.

Good Luck to all new filers and Best wishes to all of you.

Keep this community grow and increase your immigration knowledge.

[inspired_p]

I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.


I personally wanted to Thank Q and Spec for all their efforts and help in getting this community move forward. I learned a lot through this forum and I helped some of my friends.

Throughout the journey, I made some mistakes, but in the last mile, I made sure I was one step ahead of the game and got my 485 approved.

My first PERM was supposed to be in 2006 and I did not push my management to get the Perm done and in 2007 when I was ready for PERM I requested my employer if there are any unused PERMS which I could use. Employer mentioned to me there are 3 PERMS and I can use them if I my experience falls in any one of the categories to support the documentation. I was out of the country and when I returned back, guess what was new policy!!! PERMS cannot be transferable.

In 2007 my PERM started and due to the economic meltdown and recession, my perm was on hold. In 2009 my company lawyer literally HUNTED me down and begged me to file PERM, I was so absorbed in the carrier goals and aspects and forgot about PERM. If I have to say THANKS she will be the first person. My management put tons of hurdles to stop the PERM and she fought on my behalf and got the PERM done in a timely fashion. At one point my company attorney threatened the company that the company is liable for a civil lawsuit if the company doesn't act accordingly.

In 2011, a bright ambitious guy moved to a new company and in the process, he forgot to push HR about the PERM. Guess who missed the GC filing slot in 2012. You guessed it correctly.

I learned my lesson the hard way and since then I focussed much of my time with family and started running the numbers when and where the dates are and started using this forum for more analysis and forecasting.

In 2014, I changed the company and made sure my PERM was started after the 90 day wait period.

Around Jan 2018, I was 100% confident that by September 2018, my dates will become current under the EB3 category. However, I was a couple of months early to my predictions. My date became current in Nov 2018. Around March 2018, I went to my company management and requested to start the downgrade process and the company HR said the company policy is "no two I-140's for the same employee". It took me 6 months to request them to change and show them the cost-benefit and get the approval. Around Oct 2018, my company finally approved my second I-140 i.e. to downgrade the application. In Nov 2018 My company immigration attorney sent me a form to sign the I-140, I told them "I will sign the document after seeing the Visa Bulletin" and I told them I'm more than 100% confident that my date under EB3 will be current. In a couple of days, Bulletin got released and my date became current. Since I fought and got my downgrade process, some of my colleagues took advantage of the new policy and they got their downgrading started. Around Dec 2018, I filed my I-485.

Believe me, since then I made numerous calls to USCIS to get the ball rolling. My fingerprint was delayed by a week, and made sure the I got fingerprint within the next 10 days. My interview dates were delayed by a month, guess who was on the phone. I did not hesitate to call them when I felt something was needed. This month My final action date was current and I called USCIS on OCT1st and raised the SR. This was my last mile, I was one step ahead of the game plan since Jan 2018.

When some of my colleagues were filing for their PERMS, I literally begged them to file PERM ASAP, and not to argue with the management about the EB2/EB3 category. I advised many folks to file PERM and get the date locked. I advised them if you miss a date by a single day, it could lead you to wait for a month or decade. Some of my colleagues followed my advice and some ignored my advice.

Believe me on Sept 24th when Bulletin was released my phone kept ringing from morning 7:30 AM to 11:30 PM, some of my colleagues called to Thank me and some to know the process of downgrading, some of my friends called to learn the process and asking my inputs. Around Sept 29th, my company said they changed the Policy back to " No two I-140's", but I kept telling my colleagues to keep pushing and some managers were directly in touch with me on how to get the ball rolling, etc..
A couple of days later the company gave in and allowed my colleagues to downgrade the applications. Since Sept 24th I'm getting calls from some of my old friends and they wanted to know the process and asking for help in getting their company to agree to downgrade. I kept calling them and advising accordingly.

Lessons I learned during my GC process. Never give up and keep your spirits high up.

1.) Never delay in filing the PERM.
2.) if you change the company, act fast and swiftly in getting your PERM filed and approved. Always assume your date will be current in the next bulletin or else you will sloppy with filing.
3.) When your date is current, and after you file I-485, keep up with activities and make sure the USCIS is working on your application.
4.) When talking to USCIS, you don't tell them what should happen, ask them where your file should be (in which stage). If your file is behind, I'm pretty sure they will feel guilty and work on your file.

Good Luck to all new filers and Best wishes to all of you.

Keep this community grow and increase your immigration knowledge.

Congratulations !! Long journey :-) . On a personal note, it's good to see EB3 downgrade working in getting the wait times cut down so much.. gives me hope that I am doing the right thing by asking my employer to apply in EB3 even though EB2 is possible.

[Spectator]

redsox,

Many, many congratulations on your approval. What a relief.

I'm genuinely pleased for you personally.

Thanks for telling your story. What a journey! I think your point about continuing to own the process is well made and applies to many things outside the immigration journey as well.

I feel you are one of the few kindred spirits left who analyze the diminishing data that's left. I hope you'll stick around for a while to continue doing so.

All the best

Spec

[mjaggu]

I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.


I personally wanted to Thank Q and Spec for all their efforts and help in getting this community move forward. I learned a lot through this forum and I helped some of my friends.

Throughout the journey, I made some mistakes, but in the last mile, I made sure I was one step ahead of the game and got my 485 approved.

My first PERM was supposed to be in 2006 and I did not push my management to get the Perm done and in 2007 when I was ready for PERM I requested my employer if there are any unused PERMS which I could use. Employer mentioned to me there are 3 PERMS and I can use them if I my experience falls in any one of the categories to support the documentation. I was out of the country and when I returned back, guess what was new policy!!! PERMS cannot be transferable.

In 2007 my PERM started and due to the economic meltdown and recession, my perm was on hold. In 2009 my company lawyer literally HUNTED me down and begged me to file PERM, I was so absorbed in the carrier goals and aspects and forgot about PERM. If I have to say THANKS she will be the first person. My management put tons of hurdles to stop the PERM and she fought on my behalf and got the PERM done in a timely fashion. At one point my company attorney threatened the company that the company is liable for a civil lawsuit if the company doesn't act accordingly.

In 2011, a bright ambitious guy moved to a new company and in the process, he forgot to push HR about the PERM. Guess who missed the GC filing slot in 2012. You guessed it correctly.

I learned my lesson the hard way and since then I focussed much of my time with family and started running the numbers when and where the dates are and started using this forum for more analysis and forecasting.

In 2014, I changed the company and made sure my PERM was started after the 90 day wait period.

Around Jan 2018, I was 100% confident that by September 2018, my dates will become current under the EB3 category. However, I was a couple of months early to my predictions. My date became current in Nov 2018. Around March 2018, I went to my company management and requested to start the downgrade process and the company HR said the company policy is "no two I-140's for the same employee". It took me 6 months to request them to change and show them the cost-benefit and get the approval. Around Oct 2018, my company finally approved my second I-140 i.e. to downgrade the application. In Nov 2018 My company immigration attorney sent me a form to sign the I-140, I told them "I will sign the document after seeing the Visa Bulletin" and I told them I'm more than 100% confident that my date under EB3 will be current. In a couple of days, Bulletin got released and my date became current. Since I fought and got my downgrade process, some of my colleagues took advantage of the new policy and they got their downgrading started. Around Dec 2018, I filed my I-485.

Believe me, since then I made numerous calls to USCIS to get the ball rolling. My fingerprint was delayed by a week, and made sure the I got fingerprint within the next 10 days. My interview dates were delayed by a month, guess who was on the phone. I did not hesitate to call them when I felt something was needed. This month My final action date was current and I called USCIS on OCT1st and raised the SR. This was my last mile, I was one step ahead of the game plan since Jan 2018.

When some of my colleagues were filing for their PERMS, I literally begged them to file PERM ASAP, and not to argue with the management about the EB2/EB3 category. I advised many folks to file PERM and get the date locked. I advised them if you miss a date by a single day, it could lead you to wait for a month or decade. Some of my colleagues followed my advice and some ignored my advice.

Believe me on Sept 24th when Bulletin was released my phone kept ringing from morning 7:30 AM to 11:30 PM, some of my colleagues called to Thank me and some to know the process of downgrading, some of my friends called to learn the process and asking my inputs. Around Sept 29th, my company said they changed the Policy back to " No two I-140's", but I kept telling my colleagues to keep pushing and some managers were directly in touch with me on how to get the ball rolling, etc..
A couple of days later the company gave in and allowed my colleagues to downgrade the applications. Since Sept 24th I'm getting calls from some of my old friends and they wanted to know the process and asking for help in getting their company to agree to downgrade. I kept calling them and advising accordingly.

Lessons I learned during my GC process. Never give up and keep your spirits high up.

1.) Never delay in filing the PERM.
2.) if you change the company, act fast and swiftly in getting your PERM filed and approved. Always assume your date will be current in the next bulletin or else you will sloppy with filing.
3.) When your date is current, and after you file I-485, keep up with activities and make sure the USCIS is working on your application.
4.) When talking to USCIS, you don't tell them what should happen, ask them where your file should be (in which stage). If your file is behind, I'm pretty sure they will feel guilty and work on your file.

Good Luck to all new filers and Best wishes to all of you.

Keep this community grow and increase your immigration knowledge.

Many Congratulations and thanks for the pointers!!!

[redsox2009]

redsox,

I feel you are one of the few kindred spirits left who analyze the diminishing data that's left. I hope you'll stick around for a while to continue doing so.

Spec

On Sept 24th, my wife was not a happy person as the phone was ringing continuously and on that, she begged me not to take any more calls or do Immigration stuff. On Sept 24th I did not focus on my kid's classes and they missed few classes and she has every right to scream at me.

Yesterday I was on a call with one of my relatives and talking to him, during the conversation multiple times I had to correct him wrt Immigration topic and then I decided " I SHOULD KEEP DOING THE NUMBER ANALYZING and WILL DO THE NUMBERS ANALYZING".

[vedu]

I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.


I personally wanted to Thank Q and Spec for all their efforts and help in getting this community move forward. I learned a lot through this forum and I helped some of my friends.

Throughout the journey, I made some mistakes, but in the last mile, I made sure I was one step ahead of the game and got my 485 approved.

My first PERM was supposed to be in 2006 and I did not push my management to get the Perm done and in 2007 when I was ready for PERM I requested my employer if there are any unused PERMS which I could use. Employer mentioned to me there are 3 PERMS and I can use them if I my experience falls in any one of the categories to support the documentation. I was out of the country and when I returned back, guess what was new policy!!! PERMS cannot be transferable.

In 2007 my PERM started and due to the economic meltdown and recession, my perm was on hold. In 2009 my company lawyer literally HUNTED me down and begged me to file PERM, I was so absorbed in the carrier goals and aspects and forgot about PERM. If I have to say THANKS she will be the first person. My management put tons of hurdles to stop the PERM and she fought on my behalf and got the PERM done in a timely fashion. At one point my company attorney threatened the company that the company is liable for a civil lawsuit if the company doesn't act accordingly.

In 2011, a bright ambitious guy moved to a new company and in the process, he forgot to push HR about the PERM. Guess who missed the GC filing slot in 2012. You guessed it correctly.

I learned my lesson the hard way and since then I focussed much of my time with family and started running the numbers when and where the dates are and started using this forum for more analysis and forecasting.

In 2014, I changed the company and made sure my PERM was started after the 90 day wait period.

Around Jan 2018, I was 100% confident that by September 2018, my dates will become current under the EB3 category. However, I was a couple of months early to my predictions. My date became current in Nov 2018. Around March 2018, I went to my company management and requested to start the downgrade process and the company HR said the company policy is "no two I-140's for the same employee". It took me 6 months to request them to change and show them the cost-benefit and get the approval. Around Oct 2018, my company finally approved my second I-140 i.e. to downgrade the application. In Nov 2018 My company immigration attorney sent me a form to sign the I-140, I told them "I will sign the document after seeing the Visa Bulletin" and I told them I'm more than 100% confident that my date under EB3 will be current. In a couple of days, Bulletin got released and my date became current. Since I fought and got my downgrade process, some of my colleagues took advantage of the new policy and they got their downgrading started. Around Dec 2018, I filed my I-485.

Believe me, since then I made numerous calls to USCIS to get the ball rolling. My fingerprint was delayed by a week, and made sure the I got fingerprint within the next 10 days. My interview dates were delayed by a month, guess who was on the phone. I did not hesitate to call them when I felt something was needed. This month My final action date was current and I called USCIS on OCT1st and raised the SR. This was my last mile, I was one step ahead of the game plan since Jan 2018.

When some of my colleagues were filing for their PERMS, I literally begged them to file PERM ASAP, and not to argue with the management about the EB2/EB3 category. I advised many folks to file PERM and get the date locked. I advised them if you miss a date by a single day, it could lead you to wait for a month or decade. Some of my colleagues followed my advice and some ignored my advice.

Believe me on Sept 24th when Bulletin was released my phone kept ringing from morning 7:30 AM to 11:30 PM, some of my colleagues called to Thank me and some to know the process of downgrading, some of my friends called to learn the process and asking my inputs. Around Sept 29th, my company said they changed the Policy back to " No two I-140's", but I kept telling my colleagues to keep pushing and some managers were directly in touch with me on how to get the ball rolling, etc..
A couple of days later the company gave in and allowed my colleagues to downgrade the applications. Since Sept 24th I'm getting calls from some of my old friends and they wanted to know the process and asking for help in getting their company to agree to downgrade. I kept calling them and advising accordingly.

Lessons I learned during my GC process. Never give up and keep your spirits high up.

1.) Never delay in filing the PERM.
2.) if you change the company, act fast and swiftly in getting your PERM filed and approved. Always assume your date will be current in the next bulletin or else you will sloppy with filing.
3.) When your date is current, and after you file I-485, keep up with activities and make sure the USCIS is working on your application.
4.) When talking to USCIS, you don't tell them what should happen, ask them where your file should be (in which stage). If your file is behind, I'm pretty sure they will feel guilty and work on your file.

Good Luck to all new filers and Best wishes to all of you.

Keep this community grow and increase your immigration knowledge.

Congratulations redsox. Good job buddy!

[suninphx]

redsox,

Many congratulations!

[GCMirage]

Congratulations redsox2009.

[qesehmk]

I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.


Redsox - many congratulations. You seem to be one bright fellow. Employers are after you. Good for you! All the best for life ahead.

p.s. You are the first ever person I have seen where a company lawyer fought for you with the company. Completely unheard of!!

[delguy]

Anyone working with fragomen
They have still not got i485 and i944 form ready for us to sign
With our oct 2010 eb3 PD- we r trying to push medicals too as I dont want RFE later and then delay in issuing gc if at all our interview gets waived. We r not submitting ead and ap either as we both have our h1bs. But they look hesitant for medicals. I think I have reasoning to submit medicals now.
My question is
For medicals - do I have to wait for my attorney to get i485 draft ready and then take appointment.
Or just start right away the process and then convince them

Yes and same experience here too. No medicals this time and still waiting for forms to be signed. Almost 2 weeks since I submitted everything to them.

[YTeleven]

Congratulations Redsox.

[inspired_p]

That time of the month , where we can start speculating / predicting /calculating the dates for the next month 😂
What do the gurus think ? What would ‘rapid movement’ mean according to USCIS ?

[sudiva]

Congratulations !!! Very inspiring.

wow... great narration of your timeline. Really appreciate your time and effort put in to writing your experiences.

I was wondering why you took initiative to call USCIS several times as mentioned below? Was that to get your case moving or to find out where it stood? Request to share the purpose of the calls. Thank you.


I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.

...............................

Believe me, since then I made numerous calls to USCIS to get the ball rolling. My fingerprint was delayed by a week, and made sure the I got fingerprint within the next 10 days. My interview dates were delayed by a month, guess who was on the phone. I did not hesitate to call them when I felt something was needed. This month My final action date was current and I called USCIS on OCT1st and raised the SR. This was my last mile, I was one step ahead of the game plan since Jan 2018.
............................
Keep this community grow and increase your immigration knowledge.

[Prabhas]

I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.


I personally wanted to Thank Q and Spec for all their efforts and help in getting this community move forward. I learned a lot through this forum and I helped some of my friends.

Throughout the journey, I made some mistakes, but in the last mile, I made sure I was one step ahead of the game and got my 485 approved.

My first PERM was supposed to be in 2006 and I did not push my management to get the Perm done and in 2007 when I was ready for PERM I requested my employer if there are any unused PERMS which I could use. Employer mentioned to me there are 3 PERMS and I can use them if I my experience falls in any one of the categories to support the documentation. I was out of the country and when I returned back, guess what was new policy!!! PERMS cannot be transferable.

In 2007 my PERM started and due to the economic meltdown and recession, my perm was on hold. In 2009 my company lawyer literally HUNTED me down and begged me to file PERM, I was so absorbed in the carrier goals and aspects and forgot about PERM. If I have to say THANKS she will be the first person. My management put tons of hurdles to stop the PERM and she fought on my behalf and got the PERM done in a timely fashion. At one point my company attorney threatened the company that the company is liable for a civil lawsuit if the company doesn't act accordingly.

In 2011, a bright ambitious guy moved to a new company and in the process, he forgot to push HR about the PERM. Guess who missed the GC filing slot in 2012. You guessed it correctly.

I learned my lesson the hard way and since then I focussed much of my time with family and started running the numbers when and where the dates are and started using this forum for more analysis and forecasting.

In 2014, I changed the company and made sure my PERM was started after the 90 day wait period.

Around Jan 2018, I was 100% confident that by September 2018, my dates will become current under the EB3 category. However, I was a couple of months early to my predictions. My date became current in Nov 2018. Around March 2018, I went to my company management and requested to start the downgrade process and the company HR said the company policy is "no two I-140's for the same employee". It took me 6 months to request them to change and show them the cost-benefit and get the approval. Around Oct 2018, my company finally approved my second I-140 i.e. to downgrade the application. In Nov 2018 My company immigration attorney sent me a form to sign the I-140, I told them "I will sign the document after seeing the Visa Bulletin" and I told them I'm more than 100% confident that my date under EB3 will be current. In a couple of days, Bulletin got released and my date became current. Since I fought and got my downgrade process, some of my colleagues took advantage of the new policy and they got their downgrading started. Around Dec 2018, I filed my I-485.

Believe me, since then I made numerous calls to USCIS to get the ball rolling. My fingerprint was delayed by a week, and made sure the I got fingerprint within the next 10 days. My interview dates were delayed by a month, guess who was on the phone. I did not hesitate to call them when I felt something was needed. This month My final action date was current and I called USCIS on OCT1st and raised the SR. This was my last mile, I was one step ahead of the game plan since Jan 2018.

When some of my colleagues were filing for their PERMS, I literally begged them to file PERM ASAP, and not to argue with the management about the EB2/EB3 category. I advised many folks to file PERM and get the date locked. I advised them if you miss a date by a single day, it could lead you to wait for a month or decade. Some of my colleagues followed my advice and some ignored my advice.

Believe me on Sept 24th when Bulletin was released my phone kept ringing from morning 7:30 AM to 11:30 PM, some of my colleagues called to Thank me and some to know the process of downgrading, some of my friends called to learn the process and asking my inputs. Around Sept 29th, my company said they changed the Policy back to " No two I-140's", but I kept telling my colleagues to keep pushing and some managers were directly in touch with me on how to get the ball rolling, etc..
A couple of days later the company gave in and allowed my colleagues to downgrade the applications. Since Sept 24th I'm getting calls from some of my old friends and they wanted to know the process and asking for help in getting their company to agree to downgrade. I kept calling them and advising accordingly.

Lessons I learned during my GC process. Never give up and keep your spirits high up.

1.) Never delay in filing the PERM.
2.) if you change the company, act fast and swiftly in getting your PERM filed and approved. Always assume your date will be current in the next bulletin or else you will sloppy with filing.
3.) When your date is current, and after you file I-485, keep up with activities and make sure the USCIS is working on your application.
4.) When talking to USCIS, you don't tell them what should happen, ask them where your file should be (in which stage). If your file is behind, I'm pretty sure they will feel guilty and work on your file.

Good Luck to all new filers and Best wishes to all of you.

Keep this community grow and increase your immigration knowledge.

Redsox,

I am in awe!! First off all congratulations on your freedom .. I can draw some parallels with your journey but man... your preserverance, learning from mistakes and never loosing hope has become the mantra for EB community in recent times and your journey is a cherishable one.. Thanks for sharing it with us all!!

Cheers,

V

[skpanda]

Wow inspiring! Similar story here... was ignorant early on and did not care much about the importance of PERM and locking the PD.

Congratulations! Enjoy!





I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.


I personally wanted to Thank Q and Spec for all their efforts and help in getting this community move forward. I learned a lot through this forum and I helped some of my friends.

Throughout the journey, I made some mistakes, but in the last mile, I made sure I was one step ahead of the game and got my 485 approved.

My first PERM was supposed to be in 2006 and I did not push my management to get the Perm done and in 2007 when I was ready for PERM I requested my employer if there are any unused PERMS which I could use. Employer mentioned to me there are 3 PERMS and I can use them if I my experience falls in any one of the categories to support the documentation. I was out of the country and when I returned back, guess what was new policy!!! PERMS cannot be transferable.

In 2007 my PERM started and due to the economic meltdown and recession, my perm was on hold. In 2009 my company lawyer literally HUNTED me down and begged me to file PERM, I was so absorbed in the carrier goals and aspects and forgot about PERM. If I have to say THANKS she will be the first person. My management put tons of hurdles to stop the PERM and she fought on my behalf and got the PERM done in a timely fashion. At one point my company attorney threatened the company that the company is liable for a civil lawsuit if the company doesn't act accordingly.

In 2011, a bright ambitious guy moved to a new company and in the process, he forgot to push HR about the PERM. Guess who missed the GC filing slot in 2012. You guessed it correctly.

I learned my lesson the hard way and since then I focussed much of my time with family and started running the numbers when and where the dates are and started using this forum for more analysis and forecasting.

In 2014, I changed the company and made sure my PERM was started after the 90 day wait period.

Around Jan 2018, I was 100% confident that by September 2018, my dates will become current under the EB3 category. However, I was a couple of months early to my predictions. My date became current in Nov 2018. Around March 2018, I went to my company management and requested to start the downgrade process and the company HR said the company policy is "no two I-140's for the same employee". It took me 6 months to request them to change and show them the cost-benefit and get the approval. Around Oct 2018, my company finally approved my second I-140 i.e. to downgrade the application. In Nov 2018 My company immigration attorney sent me a form to sign the I-140, I told them "I will sign the document after seeing the Visa Bulletin" and I told them I'm more than 100% confident that my date under EB3 will be current. In a couple of days, Bulletin got released and my date became current. Since I fought and got my downgrade process, some of my colleagues took advantage of the new policy and they got their downgrading started. Around Dec 2018, I filed my I-485.

Believe me, since then I made numerous calls to USCIS to get the ball rolling. My fingerprint was delayed by a week, and made sure the I got fingerprint within the next 10 days. My interview dates were delayed by a month, guess who was on the phone. I did not hesitate to call them when I felt something was needed. This month My final action date was current and I called USCIS on OCT1st and raised the SR. This was my last mile, I was one step ahead of the game plan since Jan 2018.

When some of my colleagues were filing for their PERMS, I literally begged them to file PERM ASAP, and not to argue with the management about the EB2/EB3 category. I advised many folks to file PERM and get the date locked. I advised them if you miss a date by a single day, it could lead you to wait for a month or decade. Some of my colleagues followed my advice and some ignored my advice.

Believe me on Sept 24th when Bulletin was released my phone kept ringing from morning 7:30 AM to 11:30 PM, some of my colleagues called to Thank me and some to know the process of downgrading, some of my friends called to learn the process and asking my inputs. Around Sept 29th, my company said they changed the Policy back to " No two I-140's", but I kept telling my colleagues to keep pushing and some managers were directly in touch with me on how to get the ball rolling, etc..
A couple of days later the company gave in and allowed my colleagues to downgrade the applications. Since Sept 24th I'm getting calls from some of my old friends and they wanted to know the process and asking for help in getting their company to agree to downgrade. I kept calling them and advising accordingly.

Lessons I learned during my GC process. Never give up and keep your spirits high up.

1.) Never delay in filing the PERM.
2.) if you change the company, act fast and swiftly in getting your PERM filed and approved. Always assume your date will be current in the next bulletin or else you will sloppy with filing.
3.) When your date is current, and after you file I-485, keep up with activities and make sure the USCIS is working on your application.
4.) When talking to USCIS, you don't tell them what should happen, ask them where your file should be (in which stage). If your file is behind, I'm pretty sure they will feel guilty and work on your file.

Good Luck to all new filers and Best wishes to all of you.

Keep this community grow and increase your immigration knowledge.

[kb2013]

Any late 2009/ Jan 2010 EB3 filers who are current this month, but never had an AOS interview, have gotten their I485 approved?

[mesan123]

Congratulations Redsox2009.. Agree on all your points .. yes was ignorant like you and many others.. did not file from 2006 and ended up late, filed early 2011 (6th year of H1b)... hard lessons learnt.. but i push everyotger person i know not to delay there GC..

Finally applied fir my 485 .. will follow your advice to keep up with USCIS...

By the way did you post any number crunching with new upgrade scenario ?how you forsee FAD date movements.. when you get a chance do share your perspective ��

[longwaitgigu]

Yes and same experience here too. No medicals this time and still waiting for forms to be signed. Almost 2 weeks since I submitted everything to them.
What is ur PD

[longwaitgigu]

Exact on 10/8 we received email and submitted via email and printed copy on 10/14
Did receive email of confirmation
Still waiting
I am waiting for visa bulletin too
With PD of oct 2010-eb3, I want to submit my medicals too and not wait for rfe

[FlowerPot]

As like you and many others (inspiring backgrounds) that went thru similar situations, came here in 2006 but none to guide thru the process and mention the importance of PERM. I was in an assumption that if I worked 5+ years then I would become eligible for EB2 - thinking about those 2007-08 missing the boat days, i feel like a moron and cry within about my ignorance. Finally after so much struggle and failed PERM attempts, I filed the case during my 6th yr of H1b in May2011. Moved many employers and locations and about to file my 485 this month based on Oct'20 bulletin. My GC journey hasn't ended but reading you guys experiences does make a difference to many passive readers like me and provides confidence.

I think the company (and HR) that sponsors for H1 should also educate on the GC and PERM possibilities.

[QUOTE=redsox2009;67419]I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.

[inspired_p]

As like you and many others (inspiring backgrounds) that went thru similar situations, came here in 2006 but none to guide thru the process and mention the importance of PERM. I was in an assumption that if I worked 5+ years then I would become eligible for EB2 - thinking about those 2007-08 missing the boat days, i feel like a moron and cry within about my ignorance. Finally after so much struggle and failed PERM attempts, I filed the case during my 6th yr of H1b in May2011. Moved many employers and locations and about to file my 485 this month based on Oct'20 bulletin. My GC journey hasn't ended but reading you guys experiences does make a difference to many passive readers like me and provides confidence.

I think the company (and HR) that sponsors for H1 should also educate on the GC and PERM possibilities.

[QUOTE=redsox2009;67419]I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.

Same Story repeated almost with everyone :) , I came here as a graduate student in Jan 2003 , working since 2005, naively had no clue about PERM/GC backlog.. it was an afterthought because H1-B will expire. Looking back now I really chuckle at my naiveness . Same story two fold is true for my wife.
And from my experience, most times companies do not have employees best interest at heart, they are not the right people to educate.

[19YRSNOGC]

Similar story as everyone, tried to file GC in 2006,couldnt complete the process and joined new company and waited too long to file,finally did it in dec 2009. still waiting for the GC

[inspired_p]

What are the predictions for EB3 ?
In oct 2019 Eb3 row , Philippines and Vietnam were current then had a April 2019 as a date in sept 2020.
Assuming ~5000 visas allowed to india China Philippines and Vietnam that’s 20K visas per country ;
I am assuming worst case scenario 20K visas will be allotted to EB3 ROW ( 1 year demand ) to make it current.
That’s leave additional 20K visas to be given to the most backlog category ( EB3-I).
Is this rough math correct ?

[rabp77]

Congratulations Red Sox. Great news. Thanks for sharing.

[YTeleven]

What are the predictions for EB3 ?
In oct 2019 Eb3 row , Philippines and Vietnam were current then had a April 2019 as a date in sept 2020.
Assuming ~5000 visas allowed to india China Philippines and Vietnam that’s 20K visas per country ;
I am assuming worst case scenario 20K visas will be allotted to EB3 ROW ( 1 year demand ) to make it current.
That’s leave additional 20K visas to be given to the most backlog category ( EB3-I).
Is this rough math correct ?

My equation is this:
261k = 150k(EB India) + 111k(EB others)

[gcconnect]

My equation is this:
261k = 150k(EB India) + 111k(EB others)

Can you split further and the expected FAD for EB2I and EB3I( If no Wastage):) . Too much exited after Decade wait.

[Justmyself]

@YTEleven, EB3 March 2011 here. Any chances of FAD reaching our dates by Oct 2021?

[kumareb2]

Hello gurus/pandits,
priority date: Eb2 Dec 2009
How about doing medicals now ( responded to medical RFE in July 2018)as a proactive measure in the anticipation of forwarding movement in EB2? As the medicals are valid for two years, and hopefully EB2 move to December 09 by the end of 2021...any thoughts?

[inspired_p]

My equation is this:
261k = 150k(EB India) + 111k(EB others)

How do you get to that ?
I calculated around 64K each for EB1 , EB2 and EB3 . 7% rule limits visa to 5K for the backlogged countries ( india, China , Vietnam and Philippines and maybe Mexico). Rest 40K are available for EB3- ROW to avail as many as they want. I figure they might use up 20K AOS max ; as many consulates are closed. So rest of the 20-25K should go to most backlogged country in the category that is EB3-I. So only ~30K to EB3-I and not 50k according to your calculations

[smuggymba]

smuggymba, I think it is better for you if you proactively submit I485-J. This will force an RFE for medicals and G-325A when the I485J is approved in 3 months. The medicals are valid for 2 years. So by the time, you respond to medical RFE, it will be 4 to 6 months from now and you will be current.

Or you can stay put and wait for the RFE when dates are current.

My PD is March 2010. on EAD+AP since 2012.

Changed jobs in 2015 and never field AC21. In anticipation of being current now or in the next 6 months - Should I pro-actively file AC21 alone or file AC21 + 485 supplement J together?

[Pundit Arjun]

My PD is March 2010. on EAD+AP since 2012.

Changed jobs in 2015 and never field AC21. In anticipation of being current now or in the next 6 months - Should I pro-actively file AC21 alone or file AC21 + 485 supplement J together?

Smuggymba,

I did file for AC21 rightaway when i switched jobs. I had an RFE in 2018 for Supplement J and provided the Supp J after the .
I did exactly per my attorney's recommendation. My 2 cents is for you to do the same ASAP - atleast AC21.
Plz do consult with your attorney before making final decision.

[YTeleven]

How do you get to that ?
I calculated around 64K each for EB1 , EB2 and EB3 . 7% rule limits visa to 5K for the backlogged countries ( india, China , Vietnam and Philippines and maybe Mexico). Rest 40K are available for EB3- ROW to avail as many as they want. I figure they might use up 20K AOS max ; as many consulates are closed. So rest of the 20-25K should go to most backlogged country in the category that is EB3-I. So only ~30K to EB3-I and not 50k according to your calculations
Why only 64K? why not this: 75K +75K +75K+18K+18K = 261K.
The logic behind my numbers is this:
In any normal processing year, "EB others" will get max 125K yearly and most of those are new applications but this year even though there is abundant of visa supply "EB Others" demand will be less due to various reasons and eventually they all may consume just 111K visas and the remaining 150K should go to India. I'm not calculating at the granular level, key here is to predict how many visas others will consume and the rest of the visas are for India.

[inspired_p]

Why only 64K? why not this: 75K +75K +75K+18K+18K = 261K.
The logic behind my numbers is this:
In any normal processing year, "EB others" will get max 125K yearly and most of those are new applications but this year even though there is abundant of visa supply "EB Others" demand will be less due to various reasons and eventually they all may consume just 111K visas and the remaining 150K should go to India. I'm not calculating at the granular level, key here is to predict how many visas others will consume and the rest of the visas are for India.
Understood. Make sense. It all depends on how the FB spillover is used across the backlogged countries I guess. Based on the rules all the spillover after the 7% limit is counted for other countries should go to India applicants in EB2 and EB3 categories; and EB2 should get some more based on how many are unused in EB-1 as well .
Both EB2 and EB3 FAD should move rapidly based on this.

[monsieur]

@YTEleven, EB3 March 2011 here. Any chances of FAD reaching our dates by Oct 2021?

I am not YTEleven but still taking a stab; Based on approved I-140 for both EB2 and 3; yes there is real good chance. Only disclaimer is visa wastage

[rohanvus]

Why only 64K? why not this: 75K +75K +75K+18K+18K = 261K.
The logic behind my numbers is this:
In any normal processing year, "EB others" will get max 125K yearly and most of those are new applications but this year even though there is abundant of visa supply "EB Others" demand will be less due to various reasons and eventually they all may consume just 111K visas and the remaining 150K should go to India. I'm not calculating at the granular level, key here is to predict how many visas others will consume and the rest of the visas are for India.

YT - My PD is Dec 2, 2011( in EB2) . My company has started working on EB3 downgrade but am not sure if they shall be able to file before 31st Oct .
Having said that , If things return to pre-covid times (consulates open ,etc..) by March 2021 then do you see FD/FAD dates move any further or do you see halt / retrogress ?
In other words , are we saying that for FY21 atleast we are already set for good despite things returning to normal by early spring or summer ?

[YTeleven]

YT - My PD is Dec 2, 2011( in EB2) . My company has started working on EB3 downgrade but am not sure if they shall be able to file before 31st Oct .
Having said that , If things return to pre-covid times (consulates open ,etc..) by March 2021 then do you see FD/FAD dates move any further or do you see halt / retrogress ?
In other words , are we saying that for FY21 atleast we are already set for good despite things returning to normal by early spring or summer ?

You try your best before 30th not 31st Oct. But for your PD the EB3 dates will be current even if there is a retrogress from Jan2015, so you may get several opportunities to downgrade in future.

[YTeleven]

@YTEleven, EB3 March 2011 here. Any chances of FAD reaching our dates by Oct 2021?

99.99% chances are there.

[rohanvus]

You try your best before 30th not 31st Oct. But for your PD the EB3 dates will be current even if there is a retrogress from Jan2015, so you may get several opportunities to downgrade in future.

Thanks YT - Sounds like you are bullish on EB3 . In worst case if I stay put in EB2, then you dont see EB2 dec 2,2011 getting current in a year from now ?
Is EB3 better regardless of whatever vertical spillover (from EB1 ) EB2 may get ?

[inspired_p]

Thanks YT - Sounds like you are bullish on EB3 . In worst case if I stay put in EB2, then you dont see EB2 dec 2,2011 getting current in a year from now ?
Is EB3 better regardless of whatever vertical spillover (from EB1 ) EB2 may get ?

I feel that the only thing that's going to limit the FAD to reach the DF mentioned in the Oct bulletin is the processing capacity/Willingness of USCIS. There are already some reports of USCIS waiving interviews for some EB category applications. So it may seem that USCIS does have willingness to speed up the process.

[inspired_p]

Understood. Make sense. It all depends on how the FB spillover is used across the backlogged countries I guess. Based on the rules all the spillover after the 7% limit is counted for other countries should go to India applicants in EB2 and EB3 categories; and EB2 should get some more based on how many are unused in EB-1 as well .
Both EB2 and EB3 FAD should move rapidly based on this.

Can USCIS give more than 7% visas to EB3-china as well or the rules specifically states that any spillover has to go to the most backlogged country completely ?

[longwaitgigu]

Can USCIS give more than 7% visas to EB3-china as well or the rules specifically states that any spillover has to go to the most backlogged country completely ?

But again as YT says 150k goes to india for eb1, eb2, eb3
Eb1 is backlog for China- so it will be divided I guess
For eb2- it should go to india
For eb3- we still have hidden demand from phillipines, SK
I learnt from trackitt- one user wagecuck seems to be knowledgeable on distribution rules
He or she said for eb3- other workers- 10,000 gc r issued each year regardless of spillover
So if eb3 skilled workers gc remain- that goes to india but if eb3 other workers gc remains that goes to china

[rohanvus]

But again as YT says 150k goes to india for eb1, eb2, eb3

150k going solely to India EB1,2,3 ?
Are you saying FB spillover is NOT equally applied to all countries ?
Because if FB spillover were to be equally applied then EB1 -India , EB2-India and EB3-India each will have is own quota of 5235 to use - this does not change things much for EB2/EB3 unless there is massive vertical spillover from EB1 or horizontal spillover from ROWs (which is anyone's guess at this point)

What am i missing ?

[inspired_p]

150k going solely to India EB1,2,3 ?
Are you saying FB spillover is NOT equally applied to all countries ?
Because if FB spillover were to be equally applied then EB1 -India , EB2-India and EB3-India each will have is own quota of 5235 to use - this does not change things much for EB2/EB3 unless there is massive vertical spillover from EB1 or horizontal spillover from ROWs (which is anyone's guess at this point)

What am i missing ?

I am also trying to understand the mechanism of how the spill over gets allotted but this is what i understand ( and I will use only EB3 as an example)

(261K* 7% )/ 3 gives around 6K visa per country cap in EB3 for FY2021
Also normally there are 40K visa in EB3 per year but this year there will be 75K visas available in EB3 category due to 35K extra visas due to FB spillover.
Backlogged countries are India, China Mexico ,Philippines and Vietnam - so each will be capped to 6K in EB3 category, totally 30K visas in the first pass.
Remaining 75K-30K = 45K visa are available for EB3 - ROW. It is safe to assume that EB3-ROW will not use up all of the 45K, say they use up 20K visa numbers, that leaves additional 25K EB3 visas to be utilized.
Again I believe that it is safe to assume that there would be still more applicants from EB3-China waiting and maybe EB3-philippines as well.
Based on what I have heard from experts, the 25K extra visa numbers still available are expected to be allotted to the MOST backlogged country, which will be India in this case. so India would end up getting 30K EB3 category visas this year.

[inspired_p]

But again as YT says 150k goes to india for eb1, eb2, eb3

For eb3- we still have hidden demand from phillipines, SK

Even if there is a hidden demand, each country has a limit of 7% every year , so I would expect them not be current soon but have some date associated ( FAD) . And once they have a FAD associated - the most backlogged country India would get the extra visas available.
Hence my question can USCIS siphon the extra visa numbers away from India applicants to other countries even though they are not the most backlogged.

[Justmyself]

Thank you. Hope they don’t waste visas. We did our medicals hoping our dates would be current in the next 2 yrs.

[JoinedToAsk]

Even if there is a hidden demand, each country has a limit of 7% every year , so I would expect them not be current soon but have some date associated ( FAD) . And once they have a FAD associated - the most backlogged country India would get the extra visas available.
Hence my question can USCIS siphon the extra visa numbers away from India applicants to other countries even though they are not the most backlogged.

https://ambals.blogspot.com/ claims 90K for EB2 and 40K for EB3.

[inspired_p]

https://ambals.blogspot.com/ claims 90K for EB2 and 40K for EB3.
Yes sounds right at the optimistic end; mine was more realistic/ pessimistic prediction ( 20K visas in EB3-ROW within the US with consulates closed). Considering fall up and fall down spillover EB2 might get more visas .. depending on how many unused visas trickle down to EB2 from EB4, EB5 And EB1, EB2 very well get further more visas than the 30-40K from FB spillover.
Fingers crossed - USCIS is able to process all these this year else they will move back to FB next year and any unused FB visas this year will get added to EB next year ( which might be significant as well if COVID keeps playing havoc in consular processing)

[srimurthy]

https://ambals.blogspot.com/ claims 90K for EB2 and 40K for EB3.

I guess you have not read the below statement:
we know that, EB1, EB4 and EB5 have backlog more than the available numbers for FY2021. If the processing happens properly, all of the visas available for these categories will be used up. That means, no spill over for EB2.
So expect the 5200 (7% overall) + 25 K (horizontal and vertical spillover) = 30K for EB2I to be a good realistic number and it will be more clear where we stand by Jan.

[vsivarama]

I would NOT expect vertical spillover to EB2 at this time as there are enough backlogged cases for EB4, EB5 and EB1. EB-ROW numbers are the ones to keep in mind. Folks who are old enough to remember the 2008 financial crisis, there were no spillovers from FB to EB but EB2-I still did get some substantial (Vertical + Horizontal spillover) numbers because of decline in ROW usage. I do not believe the ROW usage would be business as usual keeping up with the numbers from 2019 in FY 2021 even with the consulates opening up. So there is more of a chance of Horizontal spillover especially for EB2-I (expecting 5-10k). Visa number wastage is the real issue though. However, I recently learned that even if 485 is not completely adjudicated, if it's far along enough in it's processing, USCIS usually does apply a visa number to the pending case to avoid wastage. I cannot speak of the intent, but there is definitely a way for USCIS to use up all the numbers. Will it do so would depend on the intent of the admin.

[Spectator]

The September 2020 CP figures have been published at https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyIVIssuances/SEPT%202020%20-%20IV%20Issuances%20by%20FSC%20and%20Visa%20Class. pdf

I've posted the final analysis for the FY here (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards?p=67475&viewfull=1#post67475).

[bluelabel]

Anyone with Eb2I priority date in 2010 received RFE for medical recently? My priority date is March 2nd 2010 and received Medical and maintenance of status since my last entry on H1 RFE in 2018 and no updates since then. My medicals are already expired as i got them done September 2018.

My EAD/AP renewal just approved last week end and this did not trigger any RFE either for medical on I-485. I never sent Supplement J as it wasn't asked in the RFE in 2018, do i need to send Supplement J if i never changed my Job after applying I-485? Will sending Supplement J voluntarily trigger a medical RFE on I-485?

[longwaitgigu]

The September 2020 CP figures have been published at https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyIVIssuances/SEPT%202020%20-%20IV%20Issuances%20by%20FSC%20and%20Visa%20Class. pdf

I've posted the final analysis for the FY here (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards/page4).
So I guess it's safe to say
272,788 gc might be this EB 2021 limit?

[android09]

So I guess it's safe to say
272,788 gc might be this EB 2021 limit?

Bigger question is, how many will USCIS actually process and how many will it waste? We know empirically that they struggle to process 140,000 a year and in any given year, there is some wastage. Add to this construct, required visa interviews, additional RFEs, intentions and add in a pandemic situation where capacity, efficiency are not exactly optimal and not to mention dwindling operating budgets and you can imagine where we might get with this. Just as the number of spill over green cards added are historic, there is perhaps going to be visa wastage at historic proportions as well. Everyone is looking at their dates and how much the bulletins move forward, just also remember nothing has changed with regards to processing capabilities. Instead of X applications, USCIS will now need to process perhaps 1.8X applications. No additional personnel, no additional supporting vendor orgs to help process this additional workload and in fact, USCIS is sunsetting existing vendor support partners to reduce costs. Add to that, a nation wide injunction issued by the courts that stops USCIS from raising costs. I dont want to sound like an apologist for USCIS, just want everyone to be cognizant of that and have realistic expectations.

[iamdeb]

Bigger question is, how many will USCIS actually process and how many will it waste? We know empirically that they struggle to process 140,000 a year and in any given year, there is some wastage. Add to this construct required visa interviews etc, additional RFEs, intentions and add in a pandemic situation where capacity, efficiency and not to mention dwindling operating budgets and you can imagine where we might get with this. Just as the number of spill over green cards added are perhaps historic, there is perhaps going to be visa wastage at historic proportions as well. Everyone is looking at their dates and how much the bulletins move forward, just also remember nothing has changed with regards to processing capabilities. Instead of X applications, they now will need to process perhaps 1.8X applications. No additional personnel, no additional support vendor orgs and in fact, sunsetting existing vendors to censor costs. Add a nation wide injunction that stops USCIS from raising costs. Just want everyone to be cognizant of that and have realistic expectations.

on top of all this, they need to process the self sufficiency I-944 form as well :(......

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Bigger question is, how many will USCIS actually process and how many will it waste? We know empirically that they struggle to process 140,000 a year and in any given year, there is some wastage. Add to this construct, required visa interviews, additional RFEs, intentions and add in a pandemic situation where capacity, efficiency are not exactly optimal and not to mention dwindling operating budgets and you can imagine where we might get with this. Just as the number of spill over green cards added are historic, there is perhaps going to be visa wastage at historic proportions as well. Everyone is looking at their dates and how much the bulletins move forward, just also remember nothing has changed with regards to processing capabilities. Instead of X applications, USCIS will now need to process perhaps 1.8X applications. No additional personnel, no additional supporting vendor orgs to help process this additional workload and in fact, USCIS is sunsetting existing vendor support partners to reduce costs. Add to that, a nation wide injunction issued by the courts that stops USCIS from raising costs. I dont want to sound like an apologist for USCIS, just want everyone to be cognizant of that and have realistic expectations.

Now if they do the right thing by hiring more personnel on account of getting all the money from moving the filing dates ahead, they will be able to ramp up the approvals. That combined with waiving interviews will help. At this time, a lot hinges on the elections and the decisions made immediately after that until January no matter who wins.

[Spectator]

So I guess it's safe to say
272,788 gc might be this EB 2021 limit?

No, because that's only the CP numbers.

To calculate the limit, you would need to know the AOS approvals as well.

Best to stick with CO's initial estimate for now.

[srimurthy]

Assume they will drag their feet as much as they can. What I really want to know is can USCIS keep all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year, basically siphoning the extra visas to other countries rather than India. I keep hearing "hidden demand" in philippines and South korea in EB3 category.. but ideally that demand should not matter because those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year.

I am not sure but from the previous responses, I guess in previous years it was Philippines or South Korea that got more than 2800 (7% in EB3) because they did not use or reach the 7% in other categories like EB1, EB2 or FB. Not sure exactly they underutilized and overallocated beyond 2800 even through EB2/3 I and C and backlogged.

[vsivarama]

Now if they do the right thing by hiring more personnel on account of getting all the money from moving the filing dates ahead, they will be able to ramp up the approvals. That combined with waiving interviews will help. At this time, a lot hinges on the elections and the decisions made immediately after that until January no matter who wins.

Don't assume that USCIS can only apply a visa number once your case is approved. The USCIS can potentially apply a visa number to your case towards the end of FY 2021 and it will get approved when it does at a later time (FY 2022). Average AOS process time looks like between 12 - 24 months. So if they just waited to apply the numbers once cases got approved, they would be wasting numbers left right and center every year by just accepting filing dates for the next FY.

[racharox]

Hello gurus, Long time visitor of this forum, and would like to ask a question. I'm trying to understand the demand and supply equation here for EB2I/EB3I for this FY, and how the demand will individually play out for each category. For those who already upgraded their I140 from EB3 to EB2, and never filed 485, can those applicants choose to instead file under EB3? If yes - the FAD between these two categories won't be of a big difference, wouldn't it?

[vsivarama]

Greg Siskind's tweet about November bulletin - https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1318980930422427648

"Someone I trust has mentioned on a listserv that Charlie Oppenheim, the DOS official who writes the Visa Bulletin, told him that the November one won't be out, in all likelihood, before next Monday. So you can stop asking me when it's coming out." It looks like they want to wait as long as possible to see how many applications are filed before they release the bulletin. Maybe the fling dates won't be current next month if they are monitoring it so closely.

[idliman]

Greg Siskind's tweet about November bulletin - https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1318980930422427648

"Someone I trust has mentioned on a listserv that Charlie Oppenheim, the DOS official who writes the Visa Bulletin, told him that the November one won't be out, in all likelihood, before next Monday. So you can stop asking me when it's coming out." It looks like they want to wait as long as possible to see how many applications are filed before they release the bulletin. Maybe the fling dates won't be current next month if they are monitoring it so closely.
Great. This means people will not know whether the filing dates will be honored in November 2020 or not. USCIS usually takes a week after the VB to update its website. So anyone who is thinking of sending applications based on "DF", hurry-up and send the applications on or before 29OCT2020.

[ferric]

Bigger question is, how many will USCIS actually process and how many will it waste? We know empirically that they struggle to process 140,000 a year and in any given year, there is some wastage.

[..]

Instead of X applications, USCIS will now need to process perhaps 1.8X applications. No additional personnel, no additional supporting vendor orgs to help process this additional workload and in fact, USCIS is sunsetting existing vendor support partners to reduce costs.

They’re processing the same number of applications, though. Just less family more employment, not sure why any of this should make a difference, it’s not like FB VOs are different from EB VOs...

[YTeleven]

Greg Siskind's tweet about November bulletin - https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1318980930422427648

"Someone I trust has mentioned on a listserv that Charlie Oppenheim, the DOS official who writes the Visa Bulletin, told him that the November one won't be out, in all likelihood, before next Monday. So you can stop asking me when it's coming out." It looks like they want to wait as long as possible to see how many applications are filed before they release the bulletin. Maybe the fling dates won't be current next month if they are monitoring it so closely.
I don't see any logic behind retrogressing the dates so early. Only reason I could think of is the fee hike stay.

[rohanvus]

I don't see any logic behind retrogressing the dates so early. Only reason I could think of is the fee hike stay.

What does next Monday mean - is its 26th Oct or 2nd November ?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

What does next Monday mean - is its 26th Oct or 2nd November ?

Next Monday means the Monday that is coming next, which will be five days from today.

[Zenzone]

Great. This means people will not know whether the filing dates will be honored in November 2020 or not. USCIS usually takes a week after the VB to update its website. So anyone who is thinking of sending applications based on "DF", hurry-up and send the applications on or before 29OCT2020.

I think USCIS will continue to honor the DF charts in the Oct bulletin through Q1 21 fiscal. But that's not to say that you have to file to Idli's point above! Its always prudent to get it done as fast as you can!

[Spectator]

What I really want to know is can USCIS keep all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year, basically siphoning the extra visas to other countries rather than India. I keep hearing "hidden demand" in philippines and South korea in EB3 category.. but ideally that demand should not matter because those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year.

I’m not sure what you mean by “all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year”

There isn’t a 7% limit for the category “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” (sometimes called ROW).

ROW refers to over 200 individual Countries, each of which has their own 7% limit.

If one (or more) of those Countries reaches their 7% limit, then they will be shown separately in the VB with their own Cut Off Dates.

ROW will retrogress in a category when the overall demand is more than overall visas available for that category in the FY.

If overall demand for ROW is less than the number of visas available to them, then horizontal spillover will occur.

As someone else has mentioned, the 7% allocation does not necessarily mean exact prorated numbers in each category.

The 7% figure is calculated based on the total EB & FB allocations
e.g. (271,500 + 226,000) * 7% = 34,825.

Lower use elsewhere can allow more use in a category, so long as total use across all categories (both EB & FB) does not exceed the total 7% figure.

You can't make the blanket statement of "those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year" because it doesn't quite work like that.

Only a handful of Countries even approach 7% overall use.

[inspired_p]

I’m not sure what you mean by “all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year”

There isn’t a 7% limit for the category “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” (sometimes called ROW).

ROW refers to over 200 individual Countries, each of which has their own 7% limit.

If one (or more) of those Countries reaches their 7% limit, then they will be shown separately in the VB with their own Cut Off Dates.

ROW will retrogress in a category when the overall demand is more than overall visas available for that category in the FY.

If overall demand for ROW is less than the number of visas available to them, then horizontal spillover will occur.

As someone else has mentioned, the 7% allocation does not necessarily mean exact prorated numbers in each category.

The 7% figure is calculated based on the total EB & FB allocations
e.g. (271,500 + 226,000) * 7% = 34,825.

Lower use elsewhere can allow more use in a category, so long as total use across all categories (both EB & FB) does not exceed the total 7% figure.

You can't make the blanket statement of "those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year" because it doesn't quite work like that.

Only a handful of Countries even approach 7% overall use.
Thank you Spec. This explains a lot. I did not know 7% is for overall visas and not calculated per country per category. This would mean that Philippines South Korea high demand in EB3 may use up available visas if they don’t have any other visa allocation in other categories
Thank you for clarifying this.

[rabp77]

Thank you Spec. This explains a lot. I did not know 7% is for overall visas and not calculated per country per category. This would mean that Philippines South Korea high demand in EB3 may use up available visas if they don’t have any other visa allocation in other categories
Thank you for clarifying this.

yeah...of late it looks like per country cap is being applied across the EB + FB. But as i recollect, a few years ago, the per country cap used to be applied separately to the EB and FB.

[inspired_p]

yeah...of late it looks like per country cap is being applied across the EB + FB. But as i recollect, a few years ago, the per country cap used to be applied separately to the EB and FB.

Yes. Considering this, the horizontal spillover to EB3-I will be considerably less, also EB3-philipines and EB3-Vietnam might be current for the whole year allowing as many as 34K- other demands). And even when USCIS knows this, they moved the dates for EB3-I to Jan 15 2015. It really just baffles me, but its a step forward for all who can now apply for EAD/AP, even if FAD don't reach that date.

[optimista]

My understanding is that if you lose your job before 180 days after filing your I-485, you have to redo your PERM and I-140, but get to keep your priority date. So assuming many of you who are eligible sent out your applications to reach in the first week of Oct, you will be free in April 2021.

https://www.alllaw.com/articles/nolo/us-immigration/lose-job-while-green-card-processing.html

No, I have not heard anything like this before. Please see my other response on this. I have been told by 2 lawyers to the contrary. Cheers.

[longwaitgigu]

Yes. Considering this, the horizontal spillover to EB3-I will be considerably less, also EB3-philipines and EB3-Vietnam might be current for the whole year allowing as many as 34K- other demands). And even when USCIS knows this, they moved the dates for EB3-I to Jan 15 2015. It really just baffles me, but its a step forward for all who can now apply for EAD/AP, even if FAD don't reach that date.

Based on this explanation
How much horizontal spillover can we expect in eb3 and till what dates would be moved beginning of 2011?

[inspired_p]

Based on this explanation
How much horizontal spillover can we expect in eb3 and till what dates would be moved beginning of 2011?

Considering that EB3 Philippines and Vietnam were current in Oct 2019 and not current in Sept 2020, they used up more than their 7% overall quota of 34K last year , we should not be surprised if they use that up this year as well albeit more in EB3 category and less in FB category.
I really do not know how to make sense of these numbers obviously. Hope we get better answers from the gurus.

[richie.rich]

One of my friend is planning to downgrade and his lawyer sent him this. Anyone hear something similar?

“We wanted to make you aware of some issues arising from EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades in today’s immigration environment.

Some immigration attorneys are reporting that I-140 EB-3 downgrade cases are being returned by the USCIS. Apparently, if we mark that it’s a ‘new’ case and not an ‘amendment’ of a previously filed and approved I-140 EB-2 application, today’s USCIS doesn’t consider the underlying PERM labor certification to be valid for the EB-3 case.

This is contrary to law and past practice in these types of situation. The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) is currently challenging this USCIS procedural issue and we will keep you posted on the outcome.

Having said that, we want to make sure everyone makes an informed decision based on the above, so please note the following:

If we file the I-140 EB-3 downgrade as a ‘new’ case, there is a decent possibility USCIS will return it, along with the accompanying I-485 application(s). If this happens, the employee will still retain the EB-2 I-140 approval and will have to wait until they are eligible to file their AOS under EB-2 and/or when clear guidance is issued by USCIS for EB-3 downgrades. If we file the I-140 EB-3 downgrade as an ‘amended’ case, the USCIS will likely accept it and the accompanying I-485 application(s). As previously discussed, if the USCIS denies the amended I-140 petition, the I-485 applications, will, in turn, be denied. The employee will, however, still retain the I-140 EB-2 approval. If the USCIS approves the EB-3 I-140 as an amendment, the employee will lose the EB-2 approval and will be in EB-3 for the rest of the green card application process.”

[Zenzone]

Yup same here, only started posting since last year. I used to post in Murthy forum a long time back (~2005-2006) and used to remember JoeF lecturing everyone though he did always provide accurate information. I lost interest in GC and other things after that and only picked it back up last year. I do plan to hang around and post and help others after I get my GC. Barring any immigration reform, there is going to be another decade of suffering on the horizon for backlogged EB2/3-I folks, and I plan to provide them with help and support through their difficult times as others have done so here.

For someone who started posting just last year, that's a pretty good run rate of posts :) I appreciate your thoughts!

[chhablsa]

You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control :)

[longwaitgigu]

Any predictions for eb3 india by gurus after spectator post

[qesehmk]

You are absolutely correct COVID has certainly opened up a window that otherwise just was not possible at all.

I just want to say the COVID effect is going to spill over into 2022 as well i.e. next October we will see some more spillover. Imagine this. The consulates won't be operating fully well at least until Feb next year. If biden is elected they will start operating at full capacity IMHO if it's trump, they will find any excuse to stifle FB visas. So EB will be benefited regardless.

There is one more ray of hope for EB folks. That is removal of country caps. Both senate and house are quite educated on country caps and so you should expect to see removal push regardless who wins.

You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control :)

[qesehmk]

You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control :)

And welcome! You said quite aptly that while none of us have any ability to accelerate GC for anybody else, we can certainly soothe nerves by sharing information and experiences in a cooperating and respectful manner.

[chhablsa]

You are absolutely correct COVID has certainly opened up a window that otherwise just was not possible at all.

I just want to say the COVID effect is going to spill over into 2022 as well i.e. next October we will see some more spillover. Imagine this. The consulates won't be operating fully well at least until Feb next year. If biden is elected they will start operating at full capacity IMHO if it's trump, they will find any excuse to stifle FB visas. So EB will be benefited regardless.

There is one more ray of hope for EB folks. That is removal of country caps. Both senate and house are quite educated on country caps and so you should expect to see removal push regardless who wins.

Thank You Q - Yourself, Spec, YTeleven, redsox, Kanmani you all are the studded stars of this forum. Even though my wait (like many of us) for GC is forever, I always find my solace here on this forum. "Turbulent_Dragonfly" inspired me to come out of my "read only" mode by delivering > 200 messages in a year, that rate is actually "turbulent fast". :)
After COVID first time I am hopeful that I may get GC in this lifetime and if a per country bill passes then that day will be true for many of us. Fingers crossed

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Some chatter about aggressive movement of dates in Nov bulletin:

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status/1319606680431329280

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1319651350532247552

[mesan123]

I had submitted my 485 application package on Oct 5th, USCIS received on Oct 6th. On Oct 19th I received text notifications with case numbers for all 3, 485, 131 and 765. USCIS tracker shows that the applications were received and notices are in the mail.

Congratulations. Could let us know Which service center? I m guessing your date was current and filed 485 and not a downgrade?

[tomhagen]

Some chatter about aggressive movement of dates in Nov bulletin:

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status/1319606680431329280

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1319651350532247552

18 months jump ??.. aapkaa muhmee sakkar sarkaar :) .. That will be a blessing of the century

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

18 months jump ??.. aapkaa muhmee sakkar sarkaar :) .. That will be a blessing of the century

Yeah I am a bit surprised that Siskind supported that 18 month prediction. He is usually cagey about making VB date movement predictions.

[redsox2009]

One of my friend is planning to downgrade and his lawyer sent him this. Anyone hear something similar?

“
Some immigration attorneys are reporting that I-140 EB-3 downgrade cases are being returned by the USCIS. Apparently, if we mark that it’s a ‘new’ case and not an ‘amendment’ of a previously filed and approved I-140 EB-2 application, today’s USCIS doesn’t consider the underlying PERM labor certification to be valid for the EB-3 case.”

If you are downgrading with an existing approved EB-2 then you have to file as an amendment. On the I-140 application Part2, Checkbox in Part 1.e should be selected and Part 2a should be selected and provide old EB2 Approved Case number.


The rest of the required info is straight forward as old I-140.

[mcmilers]

I don't think either Siskind or Stock spelled out 18 months. They are simply saying the FAD movement will be big... lets hope thats true.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I don't think either Siskind or Stock spelled out 18 months. They are simply saying the FAD movement will be big... lets hope thats true.

Yeah true that. I thought Siskind was responding to another reply which made the 18 month prediction. He was just responding to Stock's post. I sure hope they move the filing date for EB2 at least another year or so.

[incredible]

Yeah true that. I thought Siskind was responding to another reply which made the 18 month prediction. He was just responding to Stock's post. I sure hope they move the filing date for EB2 at least another year or so.

I have asked our attorney about the movement and what he thinks for my PD (02.10.10) for EB2 FAD. He mentioned that it will be current in the November bulletin. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

[newyorker123]

Gurus,
Question about EB2 NIW and EB3.
Lets say I have an older EB2 approved with a 2012/2013 PD, and recently got my EB2 NIW approved.
Can I file (EB3 I140 + I485) with my employer without PERM ? I have not yet started PERM with my current employer. Please advise.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I have asked our attorney about the movement and what he thinks for my PD (02.10.10) for EB2 FAD. He mentioned that it will be current in the November bulletin. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

Wow, that is pretty optimistic! 5+ month movement will be insane and obviously welcome!

[vsivarama]

Gurus,
Question about EB2 NIW and EB3.
Lets say I have an older EB2 approved with a 2012/2013 PD, and recently got my EB2 NIW approved.
Can I file (EB3 I140 + I485) with my employer without PERM ? I have not yet started PERM with my current employer. Please advise.

If you have a petition approved with EB2 NIW then you cannot downgrade to EB3. As my attorney put it, NIW applications do not have an associated PERM and hence you cannot downgrade to EB3 as you do not have a PERM.

[inspired_p]

If you have a petition approved with EB2 NIW then you cannot downgrade to EB3. As my attorney put it, NIW applications do not have an associated PERM and hence you cannot downgrade to EB3 as you do not have a PERM.

And NIW is only applicable if you file for EB2.

[AlmostThere]

Gurus,

Do you know anything about email from NVC for LIVAOS IV fee.
Does that tell anything about FAD?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

My apologies if this has already been answered. What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another post says that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

The purpose of having 2 dates is to avoid uncertainity or frequent retrogression of FAD.. FD can move back and forth but FAD should have only forward movement except during last month of the FY.

What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another post says that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.

[idliman]

Its the 26th Noon and still no VB yet. Are they waiting for S.Miller's blessings from the COVID ward? Twitteratis any inside scoop on what's going on?

[GCMirage]

Folks - What is NIW(National interest waiver) ? I read somewhere this is filed to maintain EB2 standing when requesting a downgrade to EB3. Is this correct ?

[inspired_p]

I have seen a lot of folks suggesting keeping H1B status active after getting EAD (pending I-485). The reason I heard is the worst-case scenario if I-485 is denied you go out of status from the day you filed I-485. Can someone provide more perspective, because getting a job with H1B is very very difficult and whats are some other considerations if even after getting EAD you want to keep H1B. Also how it is quite often to get I-485 rejected if you move jobs?

I am at similar point -I applied concurrently this October first time.
For me, I am trying to gain some statistical data by general googling. main questions that I am trying to get answered
1) How likely is it that I-485 will be denied ?
2) What are major reasons for I-485 denials?

No real statistics on offer anywhere; but denial rates are very low in EB categories in general.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Folks - What is NIW(National interest waiver) ? I read somewhere this is filed to maintain EB2 standing when requesting a downgrade to EB3. Is this correct ?

EB2-NIW does not need a PERM as the work is in the national interest of the US. There is no special quota and it also comes under the EB2-I so you won't get any benefit of filing early. There is no requirement to do that while downgrading to EB3. You can't downgrade an EB2-NIW petition to EB3 as there is no underlying PERM.

https://www.visalaw.com/downgrading-suddenly-strategy-backlogged-immigrants/

[inspired_p]

How soon should I expect the premium processing check cashed ?
I assume the premium processing clock
Starts on the date of receipt number generation ?

[gcconnect]

Its the 26th Noon and still no VB yet. Are they waiting for S.Miller's blessings from the COVID ward? Twitteratis any inside scoop on what's going on?

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

[Moveon]

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

That seems to be the only logical explanation. There must be Tens of Thousands applying with a majority to downgrade and I am not sure if they are equipped to handle this volume of work .

[rabp77]

That seems to be the only logical explanation. There must be Tens of Thousands applying with a majority to downgrade and I am not sure if they are equipped to handle this volume of work .

i think this is probably one of the latest in the month its come out. It should come out this week, we have never had an instance that i know of where the visa bulletin has not be published in the prior month. But its unusual times, and nothing is surprising anymore :-).

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://twitter.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1320805551262097408

This is the kind of 'Service' that is being provided by USCIS. They need to drop the S at the end, pathetic morons. All they know to do is cash our checks and then deny the services.

[android09]

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

I wonder if it's one of 3 cases:

1. Lets move the dates extensively for a month and then move to pull the Filing dates back again to get a pipeline of cases to process.

2. We need the money flowing given other applications have sort of curtailed and we really need to keep this funding going.

3. We really have green cards to give and the dates lend themselves to be moved forward significantly to help people waiting for years.

[gc_dedo]

Gurus,

Please comment.

https://ambals.blogspot.com/2020/10/spillover-immigrant-visas-to-eb2-india.html#comment-form

It says, if USCIS is able to process the cases at scale, there will not be spillover from EB4/5/1 to EB2/3.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

William Stock preposterously predicting India to move to January 2016, please ignore that. Seems like clickbait.

Siskind replying:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1320858448901361669
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1320862173975977987

@gsiskind
Replying to @wstock215 and @cyrusmehta
I don't even want to put my negative prediction out lest the messenger get blamed. I see modest improvement in EB-2 India and bad news for EB-3 India. But Bill is one of my more pessimistic friends and I would very much like things to play out as he's forecasting.

@gsiskind
Replying to @ejtaub
Or Charlie knows there is a tsunami of applications coming this week and wants as accurate an assessment of demand as possible.

[YTeleven]

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?
I don't see any reason for taking time for FD dates as they should be pre-determined. They might need time for FAD dates to plan as they have to print 22k+ GCs every month till Sep to meet the target of 261k..

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I don't see any reason for taking time for FD dates as they should be pre-determined. They might need time for FAD dates to plan as they have to print 22k+ GCs every month till Sep to meet the target of 261k..

It's good that USPS has ramped up operations to support the extraordinary number of mail-in ballots being pushed through. Will help in mailing all those green cards out, eh? :p

[smuggymba]

Just for fun, Q can delete if irrelevant.

1716

[aGCHopefull]

Hello!!

Question for all who have filed this month, have you gotten the receipt yet?

[inspired_p]

Sorry it was a bad copy paste , I think that is what the lawyer was questioning; USCIS rejected I-765 but accepted everything else as if the no fees are in effect

[rohanvus]

Filed concurrently last week, received I-140 receipt # and both checks (485 and I-140 premium processing ) debited from bank today

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

[inspired_p]

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

No. I was in a unique position where PERM was approved but 140 was not filed yet; so I had the option of concurrent filing with premium without any issues

[inspired_p]

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

But What I understand , premium is allowed for downgrade applications as well , just there is a possibility of USCIS not finding the original PERM quick enough to complete the adjudication in the 15 calendar window.

[2011Feb]

Hello!!

Question for all who have filed this month, have you gotten the receipt yet?

No... waiting.... Mine was sent on Oct 1st. Still waiting for receipt.
Mine is EB3 Feb 2011.

[gcconnect]

Nope. Mailed Oct. 9. EB3 downgrade via new I-140 filing. I think besides the deluge of applications, the USCIS is confused whether they want to reject all downgrades to EB3 that were not filed as I-140 EB2 amendments, which would be a departure from their previous practice. I am thinking we will not get receipts this month. It is tricky in that if they do return these EB3 downgrades that are not amendments to the previously approved EB2 I-140s, and USCIS does not accept filing dates next month, those applicants will probably not get a chance to file AOS (and get EAD/AP) for a long time. At the same time, I think it is risky amending the approved EB2 I-140 and letting USCIS another express opportunity to mess with it,

Any source for downgrade new vs amend confusion? I am thinking due to high Volume, its taking time and will get clarity in couple of weeks

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Nope. Mailed Oct. 9. EB3 downgrade via new I-140 filing. I think besides the deluge of applications, the USCIS is confused whether they want to reject all downgrades to EB3 that were not filed as I-140 EB2 amendments, which would be a departure from their previous practice. I am thinking we will not get receipts this month. It is tricky in that if they do return these EB3 downgrades that are not amendments to the previously approved EB2 I-140s, and USCIS does not accept filing dates next month, those applicants will probably not get a chance to file AOS (and get EAD/AP) for a long time. At the same time, I think it is risky amending the approved EB2 I-140 and letting USCIS another express opportunity to mess with it,

That is a whole lot of conjecture in one post. Too many "I think"s, so unless there is documentary evidence that this is actually happening, we need to be careful not to unnecessarily worry everyone.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Any source for downgrade new vs amend confusion? I am thinking due to high Volume, its taking time and will get clarity in couple of weeks

That in my opinion too, is the safe assumption. I mean, EB3 just got moved to 2015. There's got to be thousands of applications filed by eligible applicants.