EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020 [Archive] - Page 3

YTeleven

05-13-2015, 06:50 PM

YT,

Good for you for sticking to your guns.

A couple of observations about the forecast.

a) You are predicting that EB2-NonIC will use around 24k (compared to 22k in FY2014). I believe that is a very low figure that is not borne out by what has been seen to date in the FY.

b) You show EB5 use as 11.5k, which is slightly over 1k more than the allocation. I'm not sure if you believe EB5 will be over allocated or not, or whether it is a minor error.

Spec,

a) Even though the number 24k looks lower but if I see it as % of total EB2 it is 53% and last year it was only 43%. Also, considering the processing delays and other factors I am predicting that USCIS/DOS will not be able to allocate the visas beyond 54% of total EB2 visas to EB2-no-IC. They have to allocate remaining 46% to the EB2-IC before the midnight of Sep30th, 2015 to avoid the wastage of visas.
b) It will be the case of over allocation and the extra visas will be getting from EB4 as spillover to EB5.

YTeleven

05-13-2015, 06:58 PM

Hey Spec,
It would be nice to have the inventory report, wouldnt it? :)

I don't think upcoming inventory report will have any useful info. In fact we have predictions for EB2I inventory data here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=53828#post53828

YTeleven

05-13-2015, 07:07 PM

If someone has a pd of Dec 1st, 2009 then you have roughly 15K applications till then pending. I do understand that porting will add more applicants. So based on your calculations EB2 India will get roughly 16750. So will the dates move that far? All the calculations are showing June to July 2009 as the best case scenario.
I'm not predicting the PD movements, I'm only predicting what will be the total visas allocated to EB2-I this year. if you see my earlier posts I was also predicting that EB2-I inventory levels will drop to 9k by Sep30th and I'm still confident that it will reduce to that level, may be you can arrive the PD movement from this number.

Spectator

05-13-2015, 07:53 PM

Spec,

a) Even though the number 24k looks lower but if I see it as % of total EB2 it is 53% and last year it was only 43%. Also, considering the processing delays and other factors I am predicting that USCIS/DOS will not be able to allocate the visas beyond 54% of total EB2 visas to EB2-no-IC. They have to allocate remaining 46% to the EB2-IC before the midnight of Sep30th, 2015 to avoid the wastage of visas.
b) It will be the case of over allocation and the extra visas will be getting from EB4 as spillover to EB5.YT,

Thanks for the reply.

For point (a), I understand how you arrived at the number, but a % of a changing total number where the target is more static may not be relevant. Over the last 5 years (the period you are using), the average use by EB2-nonIC is 30k/year. Total numbers of visas available for EB2 has varied between 49k and 67k in an individual year over the same period.

Extra visas available to EB2 in any year are going to be used by India (predominantly). EB2-nonIC won't use more because extra visas are available. EB2-noniC use is affected more by changes in PERM and USCIS processing times.

If you strip away the differences due to varying Fall Down from EB1 and extra visas from FB (ranging from 0 to 18.5k), the average use by EB2-nonIC against the base allocation for EB2 of 40,040 becomes:

FY2010 - 27,406 - 68.4%
FY2011 - 34,550 -- 86.3%
FY2012 - 25,009 -- 62.5%
FY2013 - 42,641 - 106.5%
FY2014 - 21,983 -- 54.9%

Average - 30,318 - 75.7%

I hope you get my point, however badly explained.

For point (b), neither EB4 or EB5 can receive spillover from another Category. They can both only Spill Up spare numbers to EB1.

INA: ACT 203 - ALLOCATION OF IMMIGRANT VISAS

(1) Priority workers. -

Visas shall first be made available in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for the classes specified in paragraphs (4) and (5), to qualified immigrants who are aliens described in any of the following subparagraphs (A) through (C):

(4) Certain special immigrants. -

Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .

(5) Employment creation. -

(A) In general. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified immigrants seeking to enter the United States for the purpose of engaging in a new commercial enterprise (including a limited partnership)--

Note there is no language for EB4 and EB5 allowing them to use unused numbers from any other Category and EB1 says that they get unused visas from EB4 and EB5.

YTeleven

05-13-2015, 10:52 PM

Spec,
Thanks for the info.
For point (b) I was not aware of this law. It is good to know that EB4 & EB5 can’t exceed beyond their quota and EB5 can’t get any spillover from EB4. I’ve corrected my estimation figures accordingly:
FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version2 (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92a3VnNUVlM3l2R2M/view?pli=1)

For point (a) I got your point but still I believe EB2-I will get 16k+ visas this year as I strongly relying on processing delays in spite of huge PERM demand.
Also, I’m quite confident that the EB1 numbers will not go beyond 39k (again I’m relying on processing delays here too)

maverick2Seattle

05-14-2015, 12:57 AM

Hello Gurus,

As of June 2015 VB my PD will be current. My PD July,14 2008. I-485, I-131 and I-765 were filed on July 30, 2014. I did my medical on 06/06/2014. Do you guys think i will get GC before my 1 year medical is expired? Will there an an RFE because of my medical?

Spectator

05-14-2015, 07:20 AM

YT,

Thanks for your reply.

4WatItsWorth

05-14-2015, 07:22 AM

asankaran

05-14-2015, 09:07 AM

For a layman, how far can the dates go this year with this many number of visas?

If the Spillover is around 16,000 then it should easily cross April, 2010

asankaran

05-14-2015, 11:05 AM

asankaran,

I can't resist, I have to ask. :)

Could you explain how you came to that conclusion?

The Jan Inventory showed around 20k needed to reach April 1, 2010. At least 1k approvals had been made by that time and the Inventory figure won't include most porting cases.

PS It isn't 16k SO, it is 16k total EB2-I approvals (16,750 according to YT's breakdown).

Hi Spec,

First I thought as you mentioned, SO is going to 16k. Second even if inventory shows 20,000 what I have noticed is they don't process everything to get it to zero. So if they move dates little bit more (3 months) to use available visas then there will not be any wastage of visas. Otherwise if they plan exactly for 16k they may have only 13-14k visas eligible for green card.

Thanks.

Jagan01

05-14-2015, 12:27 PM

Please see my projections for FY15 which was projected back in Dec'14: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=54877#post54877
I'm still sticking with that predictions as I don't see any significant change in ground realities since then. Also, I used the same mathematical model as I did for FY14 projections and it was 90% accurate. I'm confident this year also it will be as accurate as it was of last year.
Hence my answer to your question is 90% probability that your PD will get current this year.YT,
I have to say that the estimate you provided back in Dec 2014 will not be close to reality in this FY. I feel the EB2 non-IC number is too low in your projections. The lower numbers for that category in previous year was because of lower PERM approvals and slow I-485 processing. In fact those PERM application in the pipeline will come back with vengeance in this FY and hit us big time.

You have predicted total EB2India visas of 16k and that relies heavily on the EB2 non-IC consumption.

aquatican

05-14-2015, 04:05 PM

YT,
30K seems to more of a realistic estimate for EB2 Non IC due to pent up demand from last year. What is your opinion on that?
We could be left with 6 - 8 K for Eb 2 India in that case.

YTeleven

05-14-2015, 08:31 PM

YT,
30K seems to more of a realistic estimate for EB2 Non IC due to pent up demand from last year. What is your opinion on that?
We could be left with 6 - 8 K for Eb 2 India in that case.
See the last 5 year numbers for EB2-I:
MIN: 17193, MAX: 23997 & AVG: 20881

Statistically speaking this year number should be around the average or at the least at the minimum level unless we see any significant change in the system which is different from last 5 years. I don't see any such changes here and hence I do believe the numbers will be around 16k for EB2-I. If at all any system wide change that will spoil this number, it will be the newly introduced expiry dates for medicals.

Spectator

05-15-2015, 10:38 AM

See the last 5 year numbers for EB2-I:
MIN: 17193, MAX: 23997 & AVG: 20881

Statistically speaking this year number should be around the average or at the least at the minimum level unless we see any significant change in the system which is different from last 5 years. I don't see any such changes here and hence I do believe the numbers will be around 16k for EB2-I. If at all any system wide change that will spoil this number, it will be the newly introduced expiry dates for medicals.YT,

There are factors for FY2015 that are significantly different from the last 5 years.

a) There are no longer any spare visas from EB5.

b) FY2011 was an aberration for EB1 because of Kazarian and has never been repeated.

c) The 5 year period contains wildly different numbers of extra FB visa that average about double the number available for FY2015.

Corrected for those factors and with the number of extra FB visas for FY2015, the 5 year average drops to half the headline figure of 21k.

perestroika

05-15-2015, 05:55 PM

YTeleven

05-17-2015, 09:06 PM

YT,

There are factors for FY2015 that are significantly different from the last 5 years.

a) There are no longer any spare visas from EB5.

b) FY2011 was an aberration for EB1 because of Kazarian and has never been repeated.

c) The 5 year period contains wildly different numbers of extra FB visa that average about double the number available for FY2015.

Corrected for those factors and with the number of extra FB visas for FY2015, the 5 year average drops to half the headline figure of 21k.
Spec,

I know where you are coming from. It’s true that we have a reason for every year why EB2-I got so many visas for the last 5 years. I'm hoping that we will figure it out a reason for EB2-I getting 16k visas in FY15 when we discuss this topic in Dec'15. As of now I don't know what is that single big reason which will cause this, I'm thinking it is the processing delays or the efficiency of the USCIS to convert the demand into visas in time. One more factor I want to add here is (which is positive for EB2-I): PERM ratio of INDIA:ROW, in FY08 it was 34:60 and it gradually reversed and in FY15: it is 60:32 (based on FY15Q2 PERM stats). IMO, we all are worrying of this 32% being converted into GC Visas and consume all supply leaving no spillover to EB2-I. On the flip side consider the other 68% will go till I-140 ONLY but at the same time they will clog the system and block the approvals of remaining 32%, creating the processing delays.

I did consider the above factors you mentioned before arriving at the figure 16k and hence I made it to 4k lesser from past average(21k) and 7k lesser from previous year value(23.5k). I don't believe these factors/changes in the system will make EB2-I to get ONLY 10k or lesser in FY15. If it happens it will be a history and we were discussing this will happen for the last 2 years and we haven't seen it happening and my belief is that it will not happen in near future. Also, if we see the past 2 years pattern: FY13:EB2-I:17k, FY14:EB2-I:24k, anybody could predict the pattern for next 2 years based on PERM demand as follows: FY15:EB2-I:10k , FY16:EB2-I:24k But I was predicting something different here: FY15:EB2-I:16k , FY16:EB2-I:18k (stabilizing the fluctuations due to underlying processing characteristics)

This discussion has warranted me to provide a pessimistic view on these predictions and here is another chart I projected with pessimistic view and still I came up with at least 14k visas:
FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_PESSIMISTIC_VIEW (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92S1BRQ3BXVDZsRDQ/view?pli=1)
I see your point on EB2-Row numbers (your approach is ideal one) but somehow I'm so reluctant to guess any lesser number for EB2-I. Let’s wait and see how it goes.

whereismygc

05-18-2015, 09:56 AM

WhereismyGC forecast updated. For details view ..

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/900-WhereismyGC-com-Related-Discussion-amp-Updates?p=55787#post55787

krishn

05-18-2015, 01:35 PM

This discussion has warranted me to provide a pessimistic view on these predictions and here is another chart I projected with pessimistic view and still I came up with at least 14k visas:
FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_PESSIMISTIC_VIEW (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92S1BRQ3BXVDZsRDQ/view?pli=1)

Still looks like 6k FA to EB3I. So the EB3I dates may move into Oct2004 by Sept2015.

Jagan01

05-18-2015, 01:51 PM

I don't believe these factors/changes in the system will make EB2-I to get ONLY 10k or lesser in FY15. If it happens it will be a historyHas happened in the past. Please refer the 2009 annual report statistics. EB2I got 10,106 visas in FY2009.

amulchandra

05-18-2015, 02:00 PM

WhereismyGC forecast updated. For details view ..

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/900-WhereismyGC-com-Related-Discussion-amp-Updates?p=55787#post55787

The following is from Ron Gotcher

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/executive-action-speculation-as-to-what-and-when.18086/page-55

AILA just posted the notes of their monthly meeting with Charlie Oppenheim last Thursday. Highlights include:

Worldwide EB-2. The demand in this category has exploded, far exceeding the historical pattern of the previous five months. There was an 80% increase in demand from February to March, and demand increased more than 100% in April as compared to February. The Visa Office had no advance notice that this demand would materialize, or whether it will be sustained. Despite this unanticipated surge in worldwide EB-2 demand, it is expected that this category will remain current.

While the increase in demand will not impact worldwide EB-2 applications, it will negatively impact EB-2 India in that fewer unused worldwide numbers are likely to be available for EB-2 India. Earlier in the year, Charlie expected that he would be able to advance EB-2 India to July or August 2009 by the end of the fiscal year. That may not be possible now, given the uptick in worldwide usage.

and

Number use during the first six months of the last fiscal year suggested that a significant number of "otherwise" unused EB-1 and EB-2 numbers would be provided to EB-2 India. Therefore, best and worst case scenarios were provided to USCIS regarding the cut-off which might be achieved for FY2014, and USCIS used that information in deciding whether to issue RFEs. The EB-2 India cut-off date advanced very rapidly from July through September, reaching May 1, 2009. Although the worst case scenario cut-off date was surpassed, subsequent increases in EB-1 and EB-2 number use during the summer months did not allow the best case scenario to be achieved. Much of that increase was the result of EB-3 India cases being upgraded to EB-2. The Visa Office has no information regarding the demand that may result from such upgrades until that change is actually reported by USCIS.

The May 1, 2009 cut-off date was held for October, the first month of the new fiscal year, in an attempt to allow final action to occur on cases which had become eligible for processing during the summer months. It was then necessary to retrogress the cut-off date for November in order to limit number use under the FY2015 limits. After discussing the issue with USCIS, the Visa Office decided to begin advancing the cut-off date for EB-2 India much earlier in the fiscal year than in previous years. The hope was that this would provide sufficient time for I-485s that were filed last year to be processed to conclusion prior to the expiration of the medical exams, and provide additional time for those who would be filing this year.

One by-product of the earlier rapid movement of EB-2 India was that the surge in EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades began much earlier than in years past. The Visa Office could not predict volume of demand for upgrades, or the rate at which the increase in demand would be realized. The amount of demand, combined with a staggering increase in overall EB-2 number use during the past two months, will likely slow the advancement of EB-2 India through the rest of the fiscal year. If the March/April demand turns out to be a temporary aberration and demand returns to that which we experienced from October to February, movement of the EB-2 India cut-off date could be more favorable.

Spectator

05-18-2015, 02:44 PM

YT,

Thanks for the reply. I appreciate it.

I think we can both agree it is damn difficult to forecast with so many unknown variables.

I hope your figure is correct and as we have said several times, something has always happened to rescue EB2-I. I just fear it isn't there this year.

In general I am in quite close agreement to your forecast. The only area we differ in is the number use for EB2-WW.

justvisiting

05-18-2015, 03:06 PM

It has been a while since I posted in this forum. I did find the recent discussion about EB2-IC vs E2-NonIC interesting.
To remind:
-PERM processing times in Oct2012 were about 60 days. That has grown to about 8 months
-I-485 processing times in Oct2012 were about 4 months. That has grown to about 8-12 months (based on Trackitt which is way more reliable than the USCIS website)

I think the combination of these two factors has lead to a steady backlog of NonIC cases that are ready to be approved. The visa office has already suggested there was a spike in approvals from USCIS in March and April.
Objectively speaking, I expect NonIC to consume at least 90% of the visas available this year (Around 30-32K). EB2-I/C will get "spillover" in the form of EB-1 and unused FB-cases from FY2014.

perestroika

05-18-2015, 03:06 PM

Still looks like 6k FA to EB3I. So the EB3I dates may move into Oct2004 by Sept2015. It's only 6K total projected allocation, not 6K FA. That will take the EB3I COD only up to April or May 2004, if at all. CO's reticence on EB3I movement is very disconcerting.

gcq

05-18-2015, 03:11 PM

It's only 6K total projected allocation, not 6K FA. That will be enough to take the EB3I COD only up to April or May 2004, if at all. CO's reticence on EB3I movement is very disconcerting.
I had an opportunity to talk to CO couple of years back regarding under allocation of EB3 visas to India. At that time I felt he had a bias towards ROW. He seemed to be more concerned about EB3-ROW than decade old backlogs in EB3-India.

redwood

05-18-2015, 03:25 PM

there is only one hope for EB2I in the near future. It is HR 213.

perestroika

05-18-2015, 04:11 PM

I had an opportunity to talk to CO couple of years back regarding under allocation of EB3 visas to India. At that time I felt he had a bias towards ROW. He seemed to be more concerned about EB3-ROW than decade old backlogs in EB3-India. Interesting observation. It does seem that whenever he speaks, he offers no good information to share on EB3I other than stating the obvious, i.e. EB3I is severely backlogged, and demand outruns supply. I assume he's tired of people asking him about it, and the law doesn't allow him to do much for EB3I. Nevertheless, I will go out on one limb and say that he's done a pretty average job over the years. Same with a succession of USCIS directors who fed him information. I don't think government officials care or possess the competence required to deal with complicated problems efficiently.

idiotic

05-18-2015, 08:41 PM

there is only one hope for EB2I in the near future. It is HR 213.

It is beyond obvious now that nothing will get through 114th congress. Save your time by not following any immigration related legislative stuff.

nbk1976

05-18-2015, 09:58 PM

gcq

05-18-2015, 11:26 PM

Interesting observation. It does seem that whenever he speaks, he offers no good information to share on EB3I other than stating the obvious, i.e. EB3I is severely backlogged, and demand outruns supply. I assume he's tired of people asking him about it, and the law doesn't allow him to do much for EB3I. Nevertheless, I will go out on one limb and say that he's done a pretty average job over the years. Same with a succession of USCIS directors who fed him information. I don't think government officials care or possess the competence required to deal with complicated problems efficiently.
Also he blames EB3-I porters anytime there is a slowdown in EB2-I dates including this time though he never has any clarity as to how many people are actually porting until I-485 is approved !

Spectator

05-19-2015, 07:19 AM

Also he blames EB3-I porters anytime there is a slowdown in EB2-I dates including this time though he never has any clarity as to how many people are actually porting until I-485 is approved !gcq,

I don't think CO blames EB3-I porters.

CO is having a regular dig at USCIS for not providing good enough quality of advance information to determine the true future demand.

As CO often says, he has no idea of that demand until the I-485 is approved and it stops him doing his job properly.

One action I hope will come out of the "modernization" is that USCIS will finally be forced to provide much better information to DOS. They are not going to do it voluntarily. A nice side effect could be that the quality of the USCIS Inventory that we see might also improve. At the very least, people should have improved clarity and it might stop the wild swings in Cut Off Dates in EB2.

As for EB3-ROW, as has been discussed, their theoretical quota is substantially reduced by overuse within EB3 under the 7% rule by some Countries. It is therefore quite important that the reduced numbers of visas available to them are fully used.

I have said many times that it is a scandal every time visas are wasted in EB3, particularly since they do not receive additional visas from other Categories at the moment. China, India, Mexico and ROW have all suffered as a result.

jimmys

05-20-2015, 05:14 PM

Hi YT,
Are there any changes in your prediction for FY 15 after AILA meeting with CO?

YTeleven

05-21-2015, 09:45 PM

Hi YT,
Are there any changes in your prediction for FY 15 after AILA meeting with CO?

No. I’m not changing my predictions post CO comments. I’m still positive on what I predicted before.
We know that the FY15Q1 approvals were 30% lesser than the average (31k) in a typical quarter: I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf) and CO was talking about the surge in demand during Feb15 to Apr15. We still have 5 more months left in the remaining period of FY15. This surge could be expanded further or get subsided. I’m hoping that this is a temporary surge reflecting the underlying processing dynamics. We will know more in next 2 months.

Spectator

05-26-2015, 07:45 AM

Just a heads up for those that follow the Trackitt approvals (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011) in the FACTS & DATA section.

I'll be traveling for the next 2 weeks or so and unable to update the figures.

I'll catch up and update them sometime around the 2nd week of June.

tenyearsgone

05-27-2015, 02:44 PM

Yahoo is reporting a new lawsuit against USCIS claiming that officials delay work authorization documents (EADs). The lawsuit is claiming class action status and is possibly asking for temporary work authorization to be re-instated in case of delays. I think it is very relevant for all folks on EAD who nervously wait during renewal to receive cards on time. Consider signing up... the lawsuit was filed in U.S District Court in Seattle.

http://news.yahoo.com/lawsuit-officials-delay-immigrants-authorization-201617008.html

Gurus .. I posted here for visibility. Please move to a appropriate thread.

suninphx

05-27-2015, 02:57 PM

Thanks Spec! have nice time!

abcx13

05-28-2015, 04:59 PM

Not sure this is the right place to post it, but some might find this article and database interesting:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/view-from-the-valley/at-work/tech-careers/a-tool-for-analyzing-h1b-visa-applications-reveals-tech-salary-secrets

asankaran

05-29-2015, 01:45 PM

gcq

05-29-2015, 01:56 PM

Interesting case. http://www.murthy.com/2015/05/28/bia-decision-brings-uncertainty-to-priority-date-retention-after-i-140-revocation/

Do you folks think this would slow down EB3-EB2 porting? Would be blessing in disguise for EB2.
Right now this is not precedent. Not sure whether decision can be appealed. Even then, the administrative fixes being put in by administration would eventually override this decision. Also murthy states that they are routinely getting PD retention approved.

krishn

05-30-2015, 04:45 PM

any ideas, when will it be released ? will July and April be released together at the same time ;-?

Kanmani

06-02-2015, 04:30 PM

All forms Report 2nd Quarter is released.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all_forms_performancedata_fy2015_qtr2.pdf

YTeleven

06-02-2015, 10:10 PM

No. I’m not changing my predictions post CO comments. I’m still positive on what I predicted before.
We know that the FY15Q1 approvals were 30% lesser than the average (31k) in a typical quarter: I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf) and CO was talking about the surge in demand during Feb15 to Apr15. We still have 5 more months left in the remaining period of FY15. This surge could be expanded further or get subsided. I’m hoping that this is a temporary surge reflecting the underlying processing dynamics. We will know more in next 2 months.

Now we have the I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr2.pdf (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr2.pdf) and it shows a moderate increase in 485 approvals and still 15% lesser than a quarterly average approvals (31k). Also, total FY15H1 approvals comes to 47.6k and still they have to approve ~75k in the next 2 quarters(FY15H2). With the current rate of processing speed it is highly impossible to achieve this without spilling the visas to EB2-I. This is the reason I was betting big on processing delays and hence I'm confident that EB2-I receives at least 14k visas this year in spite of huge EB2Row demand.

Kanmani

06-03-2015, 09:13 AM

YT I appreciate your effort. I do a similar kind of calculation as that of yours, but none other than myself could understand how I arrived with those numbers.

Unless otherwise there is going to be a drastic change in processing timings, 15K is agreeable. Let us see!

imdeng

06-03-2015, 09:49 AM

Another voice in appreciation of your efforts YT. Thank you for sharing your thoughts and calculations with the forum.

YT I appreciate your effort. I do a similar kind of calculation as that of yours, but none other than myself could understand how I arrived with those numbers.

Unless otherwise there is going to be a drastic change in processing timings, 15K is agreeable. Let us see!

geterdone

06-03-2015, 10:00 AM

Now we have the I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr2.pdf (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr2.pdf) and it shows a moderate increase in 485 approvals and still 15% lesser than a quarterly average approvals (31k). Also, total FY15H1 approvals comes to 47.6k and still they have to approve ~75k in the next 2 quarters(FY15H2). With the current rate of processing speed it is highly impossible to achieve this without spilling the visas to EB2-I. This is the reason I was betting big on processing delays and hence I'm confident that EB2-I receives at least 14k visas this year in spite of huge EB2Row demand.

YT -Thank you for your number crunching.

Does that mean there is a better chance of dates to move beyond May/June 2009? From the inventory it looks like there are roughly 10K pending till July 2009. Am I looking at this right or am I missing something? I know porting will add to that 10K but if there is 14K spillover it should be enough to move it to August/September 2009?

In previous years this forum used to be active this time of the year but it is different this time. Hope to see some approvals and activity soon.

4WatItsWorth

06-03-2015, 01:07 PM

YT -Thank you for your number crunching.

Does that mean there is a better chance of dates to move beyond May/June 2009? From the inventory it looks like there are roughly 10K pending till July 2009. Am I looking at this right or am I missing something? I know porting will add to that 10K but if there is 14K spillover it should be enough to move it to August/September 2009?

In previous years this forum used to be active this time of the year but it is different this time. Hope to see some approvals and activity soon.I am not an expert but with 14k total visas, I think that a date much beyond that should become current this year. Getting approved is a different story.

jimmys

06-03-2015, 04:41 PM

Great effort YT. Really appreciate it. I have a feeling at the end of this FY dates will be between Aug 2009 and Oct 2009.

vishnu

06-04-2015, 10:11 AM

cursedguy

06-04-2015, 10:48 AM

I looked at approvals in 2014 and 2013...2015 q1 and q2 #s are def lower

assuming processing rates only increase nominally, there should be 15k + spill over, which goes to EB2 as most retrogressed (till it catches up with EB2 China)

I sure hope it happens that way. One thing or the other comes through for EB2I every year. But we need to be cautious at the same time .. dont count your chickens before they hatch. :)

bikenlalan

06-06-2015, 11:22 AM

YT, When do you expect next inventory build up for EB2-I based on 15k expected SO this FY?
My PD is Feb 2011. Do you think it will be with the start of next FY (oct-nov)?

YTeleven

06-06-2015, 12:21 PM

YT, When do you expect next inventory build up for EB2-I based on 15k expected SO this FY?
My PD is Feb 2011. Do you think it will be with the start of next FY (oct-nov)?

Please follow my earlier posts or this one: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=55783#post55783. The estimated 14k figure was NOT an SO it’s the expected total visa allocations to EB2-I in FY15. I did not do any estimation on PD movements but if you ask me to guess I would say it will be till Sep’09 by this Sep 30th so that CO can grab all the low hanging fruits in that range whose medicals are not expired. Regarding inventory build-up I would expect it will certainly happen in FY16 but the date movements will depend on ROW demand and processing delays, check this old post: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=53828#post53828

Spectator

06-07-2015, 05:17 PM

After a short sojourn, I have updated the Trackitt figures (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011) in FACTS & DATA.

Jagan01

06-08-2015, 06:09 PM

axecapone

06-08-2015, 09:59 PM

EB-5 is up for renewal and looks like Grassley and others plan on renewing it but this time they want to raise the bar. I am wondering if this is likely to have any "significant" side effect on other EB movement (specifically EB2-I and EB3-I).

http://www.grassley.senate.gov/news/news-releases/judiciary-committee-leaders-introduce-legislation-reform-eb-5-regional-center

Spectator

06-09-2015, 08:22 AM

We know that the FY15Q1 approvals were 30% lesser than the average (31k) in a typical quarter: I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf) and CO was talking about the surge in demand during Feb15 to Apr15. We still have 5 more months left in the remaining period of FY15. This surge could be expanded further or get subsided. I’m hoping that this is a temporary surge reflecting the underlying processing dynamics. We will know more in next 2 months.YT,

What you say is true about the typical approval figures for a quarter, but it is possible that this year is not typical.

For instance, compared to Q1 FY2014, Q1 FY2015 had far fewer EB2-I approvals (c. 6k) and far fewer EB3 approvals (c. 10k), so it is not necessarily surprising that quarterly approvals were so low. Similarly, EB1 and EB3 approvals were low in Q2 FY2015 compared to Q2 FY2014.

The USCIS approval numbers to date for FY2015 are quite analogous to FY2011 :

Q1 - 21.4k vs. 24.0k
Q2 - 26.2k vs. 21.9k

In FY2011, EB2-I ultimately received 24k approvals, but only because EB1 gave 15k Fall Down and EB4 and EB5 had fewer approvals at that time. EB2-WW did not contribute Fall Across.

Another factor to consider is that EB5 and EB3-P have probably received large numbers of approvals in the first 2 quarters and both have high CP rates that will not be reflected in the USCIS figures.

In the very best case, it is perhaps possible that your figure might be achieved (as you say, there is some time to the end of the FY), but the possibility of a lower figure cannot be discounted at this stage. EB2-WW approvals remained at elevated levels in May and seem healthy to date in June. They need to collapse significantly for EB2-I to receive significant spillover. The number of pending cases do not suggest that. USCIS processing delays would be a more likely cause, but that can hurt EB2-I as well.

idiotic

06-09-2015, 12:07 PM

YT,

What you say is true about the typical approval figures for a quarter, but it is possible that this year is not typical.

For instance, compared to Q1 FY2014, Q1 FY2015 had far fewer EB2-I approvals (c. 6k) and far fewer EB3 approvals (c. 10k), so it is not necessarily surprising that quarterly approvals were so low. Similarly, EB1 and EB3 approvals were low in Q2 FY2015 compared to Q2 FY2014.

The USCIS approval numbers to date for FY2015 are quite analogous to FY2011 :

Q1 - 21.4k vs. 24.0k
Q2 - 26.2k vs. 21.9k

In FY2011, EB2-I ultimately received 24k approvals, but only because EB1 gave 15k Fall Down and EB4 and EB5 had fewer approvals at that time. EB2-WW did not contribute Fall Across.

Another factor to consider is that EB5 and EB3-P have probably received large numbers of approvals in the first 2 quarters and both have high CP rates that will not be reflected in the USCIS figures.

In the very best case, it is perhaps possible that your figure might be achieved (as you say, there is some time to the end of the FY), but the possibility of a lower figure cannot be discounted at this stage. EB2-WW approvals remained at elevated levels in May and seem healthy to date in June. They need to collapse significantly for EB2-I to receive significant spillover. The number of pending cases do not suggest that. USCIS processing delays would be a more likely cause, but that can hurt EB2-I as well.

You have spoiled my party with your objective thinking :)

tenyearsgone

06-09-2015, 01:19 PM

You have spoiled my party with your objective thinking :)

My thoughts exactly :)... but thanks Spec for the dose of reality. Thanks YT too for the optimism and calculations.. appreciate your efforts! For those of us who are waiting in line, we need checks on both optimism and reality :)

Spectator

06-09-2015, 05:57 PM

I want to make it very clear that I am not saying YT is wrong. The arguments are well thought out. We are very fortunate to have YT as part of the forum and I follow the posts as avidly as anyone else.

I completely understand where YT is coming from, particularly as we enter the last quarter and EB2-I approvals generally ramp up and other approvals slow down.

My thoughts are just a counterpoint to those views. I think it important to understand both sides of the equation. I've suggested a possible reason why approvals in the first half of the FY might be lower than normal - it doesn't follow that those thoughts are correct.

I am concerned that EB2-WW approvals have not shown any signs of slowing down so far and that the gap between current use and the allocation available only narrows as the approvals continue.

Let's just hope for the best, yet recognize that it may not be as good as we hoped for.

YTeleven

06-09-2015, 10:36 PM

Spectator

06-10-2015, 07:20 AM

Spec,

Thanks for your comments.

I too agree with you: the possibility of a lower figure cannot be discounted at this stage.
I see last 4 consecutive quarters’ I-140 approvals are already headed into a historical high: 86k approvals.
Last time we saw this kind of approvals was during FY11Q3 to FY12Q2: 85k approvals and we all know what happened in FY12: EB2-ROW became unavailable.
But there is a difference in then and now: the India share in PERM increased, rate of India porting is increased and I'm hoping that there are more no of India applications in those 86k I-140 approvals which will just go into cold storage.

Still for some reason I’m not able to predict any low figure as low as 10k for EB2-I this year. I would like to see more data pointers to convince myself.YT,

Thanks for your insights.

Here's what I am seeing on PERM approvals this year:

ROW ------ 1,750 / month average
Mexico ------ 115 /month average
Philippines --- 100 / month average

Worldwide - 1,965 / month average

China ------- 480 / month average

India ----- 3,690 / month average **

** Around 5k CTS cases were approved in March and April (which distorted the normal % distribution). Excluding that one off injection of Indian approvals, the India figure becomes:

India ----- 3,060 / month average

and the underlying % of Indian PERM certifications remains fairly constant at around 56%.

China represents around 9% and WW represents around 35%.

Including the CTS approvals raises India to 60%, reduces China to 8% and reduces WW to 32%.

It's important to note that the underlying numbers for China and WW haven't changed. Only the % has reduced due to increased India certifications because of CTS cases coming out of Audit/BALCA.

What we do seem to be seeing lately is the start of slower processing by OFLC. That will ultimately be good for India (since it will depress WW certifications for a period of time), but I think that change has happened too late to have an effect on FY2015 I-485 approvals.

Kanmani

06-10-2015, 08:46 AM

July 2015 Bulletin is out. No movement for EB2I . 01 Oct 2008.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-july-2015.html

cursedguy

06-10-2015, 09:12 AM

July 2015 Bulletin is out. No movement for EB2I . 01 Oct 2008.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-july-2015.html

Does that mean .. it will stay at the date rest of this USCIS year for EB2I?

geterdone

06-10-2015, 10:46 AM

Does that mean .. it will stay at the date rest of this USCIS year for EB2I?

I am wondering if this has to do more with the slow rate of approvals? Not seeing many approvals especially from TSC. I hope they will move forward in the next two bulletins.

With a Nov 2009 PD I was hoping to get it next year, but now even that looks doubtful!

jimmys

06-10-2015, 12:14 PM

Does July 15 VB mean doors shut for EB2I for this FY? It is inline with CO's comments with AILA. Any different opinions?

imdeng

06-10-2015, 12:19 PM

I don't believe the doors are shut for this FY. It just means that they are still waiting to figure out how much spillover will come to EB2-I. We should still see some movement in Aug and Sept.

The problem though is that a good chunk of Medical RFEs were submitted in July last year. All of those are now expired and folks are now looking at another RFE for Medical (and the associated hassle and expense) whenever the time comes. Frustrating so say the least!

Does July 15 VB mean doors shut for EB2I for this FY? It is inline with CO's comments with AILA. Any different opinions?

Spectator

06-10-2015, 12:46 PM

I don't believe the doors are shut for this FY. It just means that they are still waiting to figure out how much spillover will come to EB2-I. We should still see some movement in Aug and Sept.

The problem though is that a good chunk of Medical RFEs were submitted in July last year. All of those are now expired and folks are now looking at another RFE for Medical (and the associated hassle and expense) whenever the time comes. Frustrating so say the least!imdeng,

I agree.

We've seen CO wait until August to move the date as recently as FY2013 (when the date moved from 01SEP04 to 01JAN08).

I think he wants to see how EB2-WW approvals develop over the next month.

As you've said, the problem with that strategy is the expiration of Medicals submitted last year.

krishn

06-10-2015, 12:56 PM

any ideas, when will it be released ? will July and April be released together at the same time ;-?

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

Jagan01

06-10-2015, 01:02 PM

Does July 15 VB mean doors shut for EB2I for this FY? It is inline with CO's comments with AILA. Any different opinions?Agree with Spec and imdeng. There will be forward movement in Aug and Sep. I still believe EB2I would end up getting 10k total visas this FY and that would translate to a movement to May 2009 by the ending of this the FY.

Spectator

06-10-2015, 01:52 PM

From Fragomen.

July 2015 Visa Bulletin: EB-3 Philippines Unavailable; Advancements for EB-2 and EB-5 China, EB-3 Worldwide and India
06/10/2015
According to the State Department’s July Visa Bulletin, the EB-3 subcategory for professionals and skilled workers will become unavailable for the Philippines next month. EB-3 will advance one week for India, to February 1, 2004; will remain unchanged for China, at September 1, 2011; and will advance by six weeks for all other countries, to April 1, 2015.

The EB-3 other worker subcategory will advance one week for India, to February 1, 2004, and by six weeks for most countries, to April 1, 2015. It will remain unchanged for China, at January 1, 2006, and will become unavailable for the Philippines.

EB-2 China will advance by four months, to October 1, 2013, and EB-2 India will remain at October 1, 2008.

EB-5 China – which became subject to a cut-off date for the first time earlier this year – will advance by four months, to September 1, 2013.

Employment-Based Immigrant Visa Projections for the Coming Months

State Department officials project that EB-2 India will not advance further this fiscal year. Because immigrant visa demand from other countries has doubled, it is unlikely that unused visa numbers from other categories will be available for application to EB-2 India, as had been the case in prior years. Priority date advancements for EB-2 China will be slow for the remainder of this fiscal year.

EB-3 China is likely to remain at its current cut-off date for the rest of the year, while EB-3 India will remain at its current pace of one to two weeks of advancement per month. EB-3 Philippines could become available again in September if unused visa numbers from other Philippines subcategories become available. For all other countries, EB-3 is likely to advance by several months through this summer.

EB-5 China is expected to advance further over the coming months.

Not good, if true.

I still don't fully understand what is going on with EB3, since EB3-ROW approvals on Trackitt are still quite low. I was (and still am really) expecting some FA to EB3-I. Surely EB3-P can't have used that many and still stayed within the 7% limit.

http://mail.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=3173

vedu

06-10-2015, 02:18 PM

Spec:

Now that the EB2I date is not going to advance any more for this year, will EB2I retrogress at the beginning of the new year? Or will October, 2008 be the absolute bottom for future years?

From Fragomen.

Not good, if true.

I still don't fully understand what is going on with EB3, since EB3-ROW approvals on Trackitt are still quite low. I was (and still am really) expecting some FA to EB3-I. Surely EB3-P can't have used that many and still stayed within the 7% limit.

http://mail.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=3173

Spectator

06-10-2015, 02:23 PM

Spec:

Now that the EB2I date is not going to advance any more for this year, will EB2I retrogress at the beginning of the new year? Or will October, 2008 be the absolute bottom for future years?vedu,

As I said previously, I don't entirely believe that will be the case for the remainder of the year. I still hope to see further movement in the last 2 months.

As for next FY, that depends on the strategy CO adopts. He's chopped and changed over the years.

The initial allocation of 3k alone is not sufficient to support holding the COD at October 2008 - there are too many cases becoming qualified with much earlier dates than that.

vedu

06-10-2015, 02:35 PM

Thanks for the response, Spec. When Fragomen puts something on their website, most of the time it is fairly close. When I asked you the question, I was thinking may be EB3I will receive some spill across, and thus the porting pressure on EB2I will lessen to some extent, resulting in October 2008 as a new baseline for the next year which can be supported by the quarterly allocation. In case of any retrogression, hope it will not be as bad as this year.

vedu,

As I said previously, I don't entirely believe that will be the case for the remainder of the year. I still hope to see further movement in the last 2 months.

As for next FY, that depends on the strategy CO adopts. He's chopped and changed over the years.

The initial allocation of 3k alone is not sufficient to support holding the COD at October 2008 - there are too many cases becoming qualified with much earlier dates than that.

Jagan01

06-10-2015, 02:36 PM

The initial allocation of 3k alone is not sufficient to support holding the COD at October 2008 - there are too many cases becoming qualified with much earlier dates than that.The recent strategy has been to use the initial 3k in Oct-Nov of the FY. Hence whatever date Sep 2015 will end at (lets say May 2009) will end up consuming the initial allocation. After that retrogression to a date sometime in 2006 would be the most expected outcome.

aquatican

06-10-2015, 03:03 PM

Typically i find that when Fragomen gets information from DOS it has always been accurate. Do not expect dates to move this year and Plan Accordingly.
This statement seems pretty simple to understand - State Department officials project that EB-2 India will not advance further this fiscal year. Because immigrant visa demand from other countries has doubled, it is unlikely that unused visa numbers from other categories will be available for application to EB-2 India, as had been the case in prior years.

Its quite obvious that Eb 2 India will have negligible spillover due to excessive demand in EB2 ROW.
I have now waited 6 years for my PD of June 17 2009 to even get EAD. Bunkered in to wait 12 more months until June 2016.

sandykolu

06-10-2015, 03:52 PM

Please move the discussion to appropriate thread. Dates have been moving to 2009 and back for the last 2 years and it may very well be the case for the next 3-4 years. I believe EB3 - EB2 porting is one of the causes for this. USCIS needs to stop allowing to keep the PD while porting from EB3 to EB2. I am not saying it is fair to the eb3 folks waiting in the queue for ages, but logically it does not make sense that experience gained while in eb3 queue should allow people to port into eb2 keeping the eb3 PD. USCIS should get rid of porting from eb3 to eb2 while keeping the eb3 PD if they want to seriously make any movement for the next few years.
Though not related, they did get rid of labor substitution in 2007. I believe they should do something similar in this case too.
This discussion is not about whether eb2 cases are genuine or not and how eb2 suffers at the hands of eb1 (genuine or not).

suninphx

06-10-2015, 03:59 PM

I am wondering if CO is so certain about the EB2I not moving this year then why was it not put in the comments section of VB?

Jagan01

06-10-2015, 04:13 PM

I am wondering if CO is so certain about the EB2I not moving this year then why was it not put in the comments section of VB?Exactly. I feel that Fragomen has derived the conclusion out of COs previous comments. There has been no official statement regarding no further movement either in the comments section of the VB or via other channels like AILA.

vedu

06-10-2015, 04:45 PM

Exactly. I feel that Fragomen has derived the conclusion out of COs previous comments. There has been no official statement regarding no further movement either in the comments section of the VB or via other channels like AILA.

Jagan,

Don't underestimate Fragomen. Last year in June first week, they released similar news about visa dates movement. That time, no other website (AILA, etc.) had reported it, neither did the prior visa bulletin mentioned about it. Looking back, their news was fairly accurate and played out over the next 2-3 months.

Jagan01

06-10-2015, 06:40 PM

Jagan,

Don't underestimate Fragomen. Last year in June first week, they released similar news about visa dates movement. That time, no other website (AILA, etc.) had reported it, neither did the prior visa bulletin mentioned about it. Looking back, their news was fairly accurate and played out over the next 2-3 months.

We shall see what happens. All indicators point to the fact that there will be forward movement in the remainder of this FY.

perestroika

06-10-2015, 08:36 PM

imdeng,

I agree.

We've seen CO wait until August to move the date as recently as FY2013 (when the date moved from 01SEP04 to 01JAN08).

I think he wants to see how EB2-WW approvals develop over the next month.

As you've said, the problem with that strategy is the expiration of Medicals submitted last year. Hi Spec and YT, what are your prognoses for EB3I? Still expecting FA of 3K to 4K?

jimmys

06-11-2015, 11:19 AM

Spec,imdeng and Jagan:

Thanks for your replies.

We all know that CO didn't communicate anything officially regarding end of FY movement(worst or otherwise) for EB2I. Any upcoming meeting by AILA with CO? Do AILA meet CO every month or so?

EB2-03252009

06-11-2015, 04:06 PM

can this be the reason for not moving the dates?

Last year July bulletin moved to Sept 2008. This year in June itself it moved to Oct 2008, now if they had moved the dates at same pace, then SO would have be exhausted by the time it reached FY end, say Aug-Sept 2015 and then they need to retrogress for just one month and move it again to 2009 to utilize the new FY quota visas. Instead of this, they stalled it for this month to be in sync with last yr movement and move it accordingly so that it can hold moving into new FY. could this be a valid reason?

jimmys

06-11-2015, 05:44 PM

Jagan01

06-11-2015, 06:26 PM

After a short sojourn, I have updated the Trackitt figures (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011) in FACTS & DATA.How frequently do you update this data Spec. This is very critical part of information and I would request you to update it weekly if possible. The EB2ROW approval number is the most vital piece of information and I am thinking it will end up being a perfect sine wave that peaked in April.

Spectator

06-11-2015, 09:01 PM

How frequently do you update this data Spec. This is very critical part of information and I would request you to update it weekly if possible. The EB2ROW approval number is the most vital piece of information and I am thinking it will end up being a perfect sine wave that peaked in April.
Jagan,

The data is updated several times per day.

I did give advance notice of the break in continuity.

The short break was because I was out of the country and did not have access to my files.

Jagan01

06-12-2015, 11:17 AM

Jagan,

The data is updated several times per day.

I did give advance notice of the break in continuity.

The short break was because I was out of the country and did not have access to my files.Spec,
Thanks a lot for the effort. It really provides very useful data.

user_009

06-12-2015, 11:51 AM

YT and Spectator --

My PD is Oct/2004 - eb3-I. Just wondering when the dates would be current.
Appreciate your input.

Suva2001

06-12-2015, 01:33 PM

YT and Spectator --

My PD is Oct/2004 - eb3-I. Just wondering when the dates would be current.
Appreciate your input.

I have same PD and I have the same question.

YTeleven

06-14-2015, 01:12 PM

YT and Spectator --

My PD is Oct/2004 - eb3-I. Just wondering when the dates would be current.
Appreciate your input.

For sure it will be in FY16. If you see my earlier posts, this is what we predicted more than a year now. It’s in 2 stages, in the first stage the EB3-ROW should get current and stay current from there on. This is happening now, for the last 3 months EB3-ROW is technically current and moving towards ‘C’. In second stage we will see not having much demand of EB3-ROW to meet the yearly EB3 quota of 40k. This we will see in early FY16 and at the end of FY16 we will see EB3-ROW giving huge horizontal SO that makes EB3-I clearing existing backlogs quickly.

surya1975

06-15-2015, 07:09 AM

Someone posted in trackitt.com that he got medical RFE for the PD 06/30/2009. Is this good sign?

user_009

06-15-2015, 07:36 AM

For sure it will be in FY16. If you see my earlier posts, this is what we predicted more than a year now. It’s in 2 stages, in the first stage the EB3-ROW should get current and stay current from there on. This is happening now, for the last 3 months EB3-ROW is technically current and moving towards ‘C’. In second stage we will see not having much demand of EB3-ROW to meet the yearly EB3 quota of 40k. This we will see in early FY16 and at the end of FY16 we will see EB3-ROW giving huge horizontal SO that makes EB3-I clearing existing backlogs quickly.

Thanks YT!

jimmys

06-15-2015, 11:52 AM

Someone posted in trackitt.com that he got medical RFE for the PD 06/30/2009. Is this good sign?

No one could tell. Last year they sent RFEs as far as Oct 2009 PDs but nothing happened.

krishn

06-15-2015, 01:28 PM

Someone posted in trackitt.com that he got medical RFE for the PD 06/30/2009. Is this good sign?

Looks like ALL of the rfe's are from Nebraska Service Center for EB3-I. has anyone noticed rfe's from Texas Service Center ?

Suva2001

06-15-2015, 01:37 PM

Looks like ALL of the rfe's are from Nebraska Service Center for EB3-I. has anyone noticed rfe's from Texas Service Center ?

I think that's not EB3-I. That might be EB2-I.

kumar777

06-16-2015, 02:57 PM

from oh-law firm, this is really disappointing..

06/15/2015: EB-2 India Visa Bulletin Prediction by Oppenheim of DOS

AILA reports that according to Mr. Oppenheim, Unexpectedly, during the past few months, the EB-2 demand for worldwide increased more than doubled, and therefore the EB-2 India cut-off date had to hold steady in July 2015. Should this trend continues, Oppenheim predicts that EB-2 India may not move forward during August and September 2015. Ouch!

Need GC soon

06-16-2015, 03:20 PM

YT - Is there a possibility for EB3 India to move in the coming Two Visa bulletins ? If so how much ?
We should get some SO, have been waiting for a decade now. Thanks!

Suva2001

06-16-2015, 03:43 PM

YT - Is there a possibility for EB3 India to move in the coming Two Visa bulletins ? If so how much ?
We should get some SO, have been waiting for a decade now. Thanks!

As per the current trend EB3-ROW would not be able to use their yearly quota in 2015. Isn't EB3-I supposed to receive some SO in 2015 FY? Why haven't we received SO yet?

Spectator

06-16-2015, 03:51 PM

This from Ron Gotcher for EB1, EB2 and EB3. He normally reproduces the text as it was given by AILA.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/general-discussion-1.18172/page-38

Here are some of the highlights from this month's liaison meeting with Charlie Oppenheim:

Employment-Based First and Second Preference Categories.

EB-1 and EB-2 worldwide is expected to remain current for the foreseeable future.

Charlie anticipates continuing forward movement in EB-2 China, but at a slower pace through this fiscal year.

As a result of the advancement of EB-2 India earlier this year, advancement in this category is expected to slow as we approach the end of the fiscal year, primarily due to EB-3 upgrades.
Unexpectedly, demand for EB-2 worldwide has more than doubled over the past few months, causing the EB-2 India cut-off date to hold steady in July.
Unless there is a significant decline in EB-2 worldwide demand, Charlie does not anticipate any forward movement in EB-2 India for the rest of this fiscal year.

Employment-Based Third Preference.

Charlie expects EB-3 worldwide to reach the summer of 2015 by the end of this fiscal year and expects that the cut-off date will hold steady for some time before deciding whether some other type of corrective action is required for the next fiscal year.

The EB-3 China cut-off date is expected to remain the same through the rest of the fiscal year.

EB-3 India is expected to advance by one to two weeks.

EB-3 Mexico will continue to follow EB-3 worldwide.

One of the most dramatic actions for July is that the EB-3 Philippines and "other worker" categories will become unavailable, and will likely remain so through this fiscal year.

QUESTION 1: Because the worldwide EB-3 category has advanced so rapidly since March 2015, is there any indication when corrective action may be required?

ANSWER: I believe that the initial corrective action will begin no later than October, and that will be holding the cut-off date steady for several months. I estimate that it takes at least five months from the day an applicant files their adjustment application until USCIS has finalized all required processing and requests a number. Therefore, I will not see the impact of the May cut-off date movement until October, June movement until November, etc.

It is extremely hard to predict how quickly the level of demand would start to exceed my monthly targets for FY2016 number use. Should the level of demand begin to exceed the targeted level, then further corrective action would be considered.

Even at this stage, CO does not seem to expect EB3-I to receive FA within EB3, as he has stubbornly stuck to his forecast of 1-2 weeks per month. The fact that EB3-ROW is likely to stop moving forward in FY2016, then possibly retrogress at a later stage suggests fairly healthy demand.

perestroika

06-16-2015, 04:44 PM

This from Ron Gotcher for EB1, EB2 and EB3. He normally reproduces the text as it was given by AILA.

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/general-discussion-1.18172/page-38

Even at this stage, CO does not seem to expect EB3-I to receive FA within EB3, as he has stubbornly stuck to his forecast of 1-2 weeks per month. The fact that EB3-ROW is likely to stop moving forward in FY2016, then possibly retrogress at a later stage suggests fairly healthy demand. This is mind boggling, to say the least. What EB3RoW demand is he looking at that would require holding the forecast for EB3I to 1-2 weeks per month? Unless trackitt sampling is way off this year, approvable EB3RoW demand should still render an FA to EB3I.

What could be going on? Has USCIS shared the April inventory with CO? Or an accurate one at that?

Suva2001

06-16-2015, 04:54 PM

This is mind boggling, to say the least. What EB3RoW demand is he looking at that would require holding the forecast for EB3I to 1-2 weeks per month? Unless trackitt sampling is way off this year, approvable EB3RoW demand should still render an FA to EB3I.

What could be going on? Has USCIS shared the April inventory with CO? Or an accurate one at that?

I am also confused. All along it was predicted that there would be excess by end of Aug/Sep 2015. We hoped some SO this year in ranges from 1000 to 5000. Now it seems they might waste some visas in EB3 this year.

ROCK72

06-16-2015, 05:00 PM

This is mind boggling, to say the least. What EB3RoW demand is he looking at that would require holding the forecast for EB3I to 1-2 weeks per month? Unless trackitt sampling is way off this year, approvable EB3RoW demand should still render an FA to EB3I.

What could be going on? Has USCIS shared the April inventory with CO? Or an accurate one at that?

I agree. Have been tracking Trackit approvals on a regular basis & do not see any large # of EB3 ROW approvals (as compared to FY2013 & FY2014). I think this year will follow similar trend like what happen in 2013 Sep VB for EB3I. Any thoughts??

799

gcq

06-16-2015, 05:17 PM

I am again forced to reconfirm my belief that CO is biased towards EB3 ROW. He wants to hold EB3 ROW steady to prevent any fall across to EB3-I thus giving priority to EB3 ROW even if there is no demand in EB3 ROW for this fiscal year. EB3-I guys it is time to take up some action and write to our lawmakers about CO's discriminatory behaviour. It is not a big deal to frame a letter and contact lawmakers. Let us unite and tale action.

Demand means I-485 which are in approvable state. He cannot consider a freshly filed I-485 as "demand". That amounts to wasting visa numbers to favour his favourite category EB3-ROW.

perestroika

06-16-2015, 05:28 PM

I agree. Have been tracking Trackit approvals on a regular basis & do not see any large # of EB3 ROW approvals (as compared to FY2013 & FY2014). I think this year will follow similar trend like what happen in 2013 Sep VB for EB3I. Any thoughts??

Based on I-485 filings up to May end, I am forecasting the approvable EB3RoW trackitt demand sample to be between 190 to 210 for FY2015. Anything more than that will require a substantial reduction in I-485 processing times by USCIS, which is not going to happen. A 190 to 210 trackitt sample would be around 22K actual approvals. So, a 2K to 3K FA is not unrealistic. CO shutting down the possibility of a bigger EB3I movement is a huge concern. Either he has seen something we haven't seen or is just continuing his streak of incompetence (and as gcq mentioned, probably his streak of EB3RoW bias as well.)

Good analysis, by the way!

Spectator

06-16-2015, 05:44 PM

This is mind boggling, to say the least. What EB3RoW demand is he looking at that would require holding the forecast for EB3I to 1-2 weeks per month? Unless trackitt sampling is way off this year, approvable EB3RoW demand should still render an FA to EB3I.

What could be going on? Has USCIS shared the April inventory with CO? Or an accurate one at that?perestroika,

I agree with you.

Everything (at least the information we are privy to) says there should be some FA to EB3-I this year.

Frankly, I've given up trying to understand the situation, given such conflicting "information" from what we see and what Co is saying.

I guess what will be, will be.

vyruss

06-16-2015, 08:08 PM

perestroika,

I agree with you.

Everything (at least the information we are privy to) says there should be some FA to EB3-I this year.

Frankly, I've given up trying to understand the situation, given such conflicting "information" from what we see and what Co is saying.

I guess what will be, will be.

Spec and other Gurus: Are the recent statements by CO a death knell to EB 2I for this year, especially given that there are no RFEs so far for medicals (like last year) ?

gcq

06-16-2015, 08:46 PM

Please let me know if you want to join action against CO's apparently discriminator behavior. We should plan on writing to CO himself and lawmakers. We as a group has done this in the past for under allocation of EB3-****iisas in 2009. We need to take action. Once a proper letter is framed, just post/fax the letter to CO and other lawmakers.

We need to do this quickly as once this fiscal year will come to an end, CO cannot take any corrective action as current law prohibits any corrective action once fiscal year has expired.

YTeleven

06-16-2015, 10:30 PM

I’m not sure where we are heading. It’s not wise to criticize CO here. I see he is doing his best to not to waste any visas, this is what we saw for last few years. I do remember 2 occasions previously he predicted something and ended up doing something else. I think it’s because of not having proper info from other agencies. I was searching for those 2 old posts and could not find them but I found this one year old post which shows how reasonably accurate we are in our assumptions and predictions : http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2474-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)-2014?p=52794#post52794
This year it is really getting tougher to predict anything due to lack of data: No DD from DOS anymore, No monthly processing volume numbers of i-485 & I-140 from USCIS, no April i-485 inventory so far.
But I found one interesting pointer i.e. i-140 approval figures for last 4 consecutive quarters: in FY13 it was 85k and the consequences was high EB2-ROW demand and high visa consumption and EB2-ROW became unavailable. Again now in FY15 for the last 4 quarters the I-140 approvals peaked to 86k and there is no sign of reduction. This is also showing same effect of high EB2-ROW consumption. But we don’t know what is the ratio of ROW applications in this 86k figure, this year EB2-I allocations will be dependent on this ratio.

qesehmk

06-16-2015, 11:26 PM

GCQ - it's not personal. CO is just one man. He is following the law within the DoS policies and objectives. If anything my sense is he is eager to communicate as best as he could to avoid surprises. See all these updates he provides to AILA etc are absolutely not required.

However I do agree that there is a certain anti-India and anti-china bias in the whole immigration system.

Please let me know if you want to join action against CO's apparently discriminator behavior. We should plan on writing to CO himself and lawmakers. We as a group has done this in the past for under allocation of EB3-****iisas in 2009. We need to take action. Once a proper letter is framed, just post/fax the letter to CO and other lawmakers.

We need to do this quickly as once this fiscal year will come to an end, CO cannot take any corrective action as current law prohibits any corrective action once fiscal year has expired.

perestroika

06-16-2015, 11:45 PM

I’m not sure where we are heading. It’s not wise to criticize CO here. I see he is doing his best to not to waste any visas, this is what we saw for last few years.
I agree with you - he has a track record of under-promising and then over-delivering, a time tested strategy for government officials and bureacrats. Manufacturing pleasant surprises in times of manufactured adversity gives the illusion of performance, but when considered objectively, it is a measure of inefficiency. Applying spillover at the very end instead of spreading it out evenly is an inefficient system. Thousands of careers and lives are being put into abeyance, year after year, with no consequence. People affected by CO's modus operandi - deliberate or not - are realizing they are being shortchanged. Criticisms are bound to come; if CO is doing the best he can, he will ignore them.

migo79

06-17-2015, 02:53 AM

I also wonder about CO statement regarding EB3 in general.
I don't think there are sudden surge in PERM that justifies being so pessimistic

I think as many said CO is under promising to over deliver

the economy is picking up but not booming to create a sudden surge in demand and PERM figures prove it.

There is one important thing we have to note, he said that he will see the impact of May movement in October, which is absolutely correct but how many cases he will receive by then? probably will be similar to latest years demand so it won't be significant to affect the cut off date, I can see in this comment that CO is just assuming the demand will be high. I don't also expect a high carry over volume from EB3ROW this year into next.

kumar777

06-17-2015, 06:13 AM

HI gurus,

my priority date is 15/12/09(EB2I), is there a possibility of getting greened next year at least?

vedu

06-17-2015, 08:08 AM

I have this strange feeling that if any cheese is left over for EB3I in next 2 months, it will be moved to EB2I while EB3I applicants are busy responding to RFEs? Can this happen? That way they will get a chance to clear many of the EB2I applicants who responded to RFEs last year and are still waiting in line. As for EB3I, they have become cash cows thanks to the porting phenomenon, so there is no point in killing the hen that lays golden eggs! Maybe after seeing what happened within EB3C and EB2C categories a few months ago, they are determined to not let it happen again. I may be way off on this one, but who knows!

gcpursuit

06-17-2015, 09:47 AM

jdoe99

06-17-2015, 09:54 AM

Sorry if this is a stupid question.

Can someone explain how is EB1 India always current? It looks like EB3 India/EB2 India have to wait till the last minute to get any spillover. Shouldn't it be the same with EB1 India also? Why is that different?

Good question. Going by Spec's Trackitt data parsing and actual visas (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2404-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012-vs-FY2011?p=45907#post45907) given, it looks like EB1I has got ~ 4.5K, 9.5K, 9.5K, and 13K in the last 4 FY's at a pretty even pace. Never paid attention to that but will be interested to know how that happened with EB1's.

qesehmk

06-17-2015, 10:47 AM

Although EB1 India uses more than 7% within overall EB1, the entire category always has numbers to meet the full demand of the entire category. Thus entire category is current even thought individual countries exceed their 7% so-to-speak quota.

Just to illustrate the point further - if suddenly the overall EB quota were to jump to 500K (hypothetically of course) the EB2-India quota would be approximately 10K and the entire EB2 category quota would be 120K approx. Now EB2I certainly will have more demand than 10K per year. But EB2 as a category never has 120K demand. Thus EB2 category will become current and thus EB2I although will have more demand than its quota - will become current.

Hope this explains.

Sorry if this is a stupid question.

Can someone explain how is EB1 India always current? It looks like EB3 India/EB2 India have to wait till the last minute to get any spillover. Shouldn't it be the same with EB1 India also? Why is that different?

Spectator

06-17-2015, 01:28 PM

I have this strange feeling that if any cheese is left over for EB3I in next 2 months, it will be moved to EB2I while EB3I applicants are busy responding to RFEs? Can this happen?
vedu,

The law does not allow spare visas in EB3 to "Fall Up" to EB2.

If EB3 visas remain unused, then they are "wasted" - or rather they will form part of Family Based FY2016 calculation. EB benefits from the reverse where all FB visas are not used.

EB3-I are "cash cows" in the sense that they are now the only group who submitted their I-485 before the fee change that came into effect from the August 2007 VB onwards. Under the old fee, those people have to pay for all renewals of EAD and AP. It's high time that USCIS gave a moratorium on further fees for those people affected (or Congress passed something if that is necessary).

geniusmag

06-17-2015, 01:32 PM

vedu,

The law does not allow spare visas in EB3 to "Fall Up" to EB2.

If EB3 visas remain unused, then they are "wasted" - or rather they will form part of Family Based FY2016 calculation. EB benefits from the reverse where all FB visas are not used.

Are there any indications of any unused FB visas available for EB2 next year or are we in this for the long haul where dates have no net movement YoY and instead keep regressing ! what a sorry state of affairs

Spectator

06-17-2015, 01:46 PM

Are there any indications of any unused FB visas available for EB2 next year or are we in this for the long haul where dates have no net movement YoY and instead keep regressing ! what a sorry state of affairsSince all FB Categories are currently retrogressed, there should never be any spare visas available from FB.

I wouldn't expect any more than EB received this year. Of any that are available, they are allocated in exactly the same way as the initial 140k, so EB2-I would initially only receive about 2% of the number available (28.6% x 7%).

vedu

06-17-2015, 02:10 PM

vedu,

The law does not allow spare visas in EB3 to "Fall Up" to EB2.

If EB3 visas remain unused, then they are "wasted" - or rather they will form part of Family Based FY2016 calculation. EB benefits from the reverse where all FB visas are not used.

EB3-I are "cash cows" in the sense that they are now the only group who submitted their I-485 before the fee change that came into effect from the August 2007 VB onwards. Under the old fee, those people have to pay for all renewals of EAD and AP. It's high time that USCIS gave a moratorium on further fees for those people affected (or Congress passed something if that is necessary).

Spec,

Thanks for correcting me on this. I don't care where EB2I and EB3I cut-off dates land by the end of this year, but wasting visas when so many applicants are waiting in line for years will be too bad.

iatiam

06-23-2015, 04:29 PM

Since all FB Categories are currently retrogressed, there should never be any spare visas available from FB.

I wouldn't expect any more than EB received this year. Of any that are available, they are allocated in exactly the same way as the initial 140k, so EB2-I would initially only receive about 2% of the number available (28.6% x 7%).

Spec,

If the unused or wasted visas (which should have gone to EB3-I, but didn't) are counted against the FB category, does it help EB2I? i.e. would it ease FB congestion and the extra visas go to EB2I.

Also, what do you mean by "EB2-I would initially receive..."? This will be the first few months of the next FY, right? Does it mean dates may potentially move if the entire quota is expended right away?

How much SO do you think EB2I would get this year? Also, what does the view look like for next year, you know from the 20,000 ft elevation.

Iatiam

Spectator

06-23-2015, 08:35 PM

Spec,

If the unused or wasted visas (which should have gone to EB3-I, but didn't) are counted against the FB category, does it help EB2I? i.e. would it ease FB congestion and the extra visas go to EB2I.Iatiam,

We don't know yet whether CO/USCIS will still pull a proverbial rabbit out of the hat. It doesn't help EB2-I at all. The nature of the FB calculation is such that the number available to them does not increase, even if spare EB numbers are available (they'll still get 226k). The reason for this is the number of IR approvals.

Also, what do you mean by "EB2-I would initially receive..."? This will be the first few months of the next FY, right? Does it mean dates may potentially move if the entire quota is expended right away?
I'm talking about the 7% allocation. Before any spillover (either FA or FD). 28.6% (the % EB 2 receive) times 7% = 2.002%.
2% of 140k = 2.8k. If there were 10k spare FB visas (not likely), then EB2-I would have an allocation before SO of 150k * 2% = 3k.

How much SO do you think EB2I would get this year? Also, what does the view look like for next year, you know from the 20,000 ft elevation.

Iatiam
I think both depend on processing speeds. This FY depends on USCIS and next FY depends on DOL. EB2-non IC appear to have lots of pending I-485 cases and PERM demand has not dropped that much to date as far as I can see. There still seem to be significant numbers of EB2-I cases still pending within the current 01OCT08 COD. I can equally see no further movement this FY or some fairly modest forward movement.

EB2-03252009

06-23-2015, 09:03 PM

Texas Service Center------------------------------------------Nebraska Service Center
-------------- Pending---Approved--Denied---RFE----Pending--Approved--Denied-------RFE
June 2015-------424-------13------- 0-----------4-------356-------46-------0-------------- 7
May 2015 -------437-------32------- 0-----------3-------402-------49-------0-------------- 7
April 2015-------469-------41------- 0-----------10------451-------78-------0--------------12
March 2015-----510-------32------- 0-----------5-------529-------48-------0--------------14
Feb 2015--------542-------29------- 0-----------3-------577-------25-------0--------------11
Jan 2015--------571-------16------- 0----------- 2-------602-------27-------0--------------3

Trackitt numbers for EB2ROW
TSC slowed down considerably but NSC is running at same pace or even more..

jimmys

06-24-2015, 05:18 PM

USCIS sudden pick up of processing speed and DOL's quick PERM approvals put a dent on EB2I's hopes.

jdoe99

06-25-2015, 07:33 AM

Are you taking into account the fact that in the first 2 quarters USCIS has approved nearly 15K less of EB 485's. They have approved only 47,600 for the first 2 quarters as opposed to 62,353 last year.

Related or unrelated, for the FB approval, for the first two quarters this year there have been 106,544 approvals where as for the same quarters last year it was 122,822.

I haven't looked at the earlier years and speed to which they can ramp up to. I wonder if they can process all the visas or will we be seeing some spillovers.

gc_dec_2008

06-27-2015, 03:39 PM

May be Question in Wrong forum, my PD is Dec 2008. I opened congressional enquiry for which USCIS responded case in Security check. I called them again last week and still security check. Does it take 3 years for security check? I had filed in Feb 2012 and that time when I called FBI they had told me they verified and sent results back in 4 weeks. Anyone in same situation?

vizcard

06-28-2015, 08:21 PM

Moveon

06-29-2015, 06:51 PM

Any idea on how much time does the USCIS gives to respond to an "Employment Verification Letter" RFE ?

vizcard

06-29-2015, 08:56 PM

Any idea on how much time does the USCIS gives to respond to an "Employment Verification Letter" RFE ?

Its the same for any RFE ~ 90 days

Spectator

06-30-2015, 09:07 AM

The 2015 Ombudsman Report (http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/Final%202015%20CISOMB%20Annual%20Report_0.pdf) has been published.

One interesting snippet of information is contained on page 66. This gives Details for I-140 receipts/Approvals for EB1 to EB4 (EB4 uses an I-360 rather than I-140). It's quite rare to get any I-140 information with this level of detail.

The FY2014 figures for EB3 don't look correct, so I have am only really looking at FY up to 2013.

Some highlights for FY2013:

EB1 Receipts - 20,258 (appears to increase to 22,874 in FY2014)
EB1 approval rate - 87-89%

EB2 Receipts - 46,720 (appears to increase to 63,644 in FY2014)
EB2 approval rate - 93-94%

EB3 Receipts - 4,617 (appears to decrease significantly from 10,926 in FY2012)
EB3 approval rate - 81%

The data also seem to confirm the rise in % of EB2 I-140 versus EB3 I-140.

Trying to adjust the figures for the different I-140 denial rates, the data seems to suggest the following EB2% approvals based on total EB2/EB3 receipts. This is something of a kludge figure, since the receipts and approvals are not the same applications. For trend purposes it is probably adequate.

% EB2 I-140 Approvals of Total EB2/EB3 Approvals
FY2009 - 53%
FY2010 - 67%
FY2011 - 73%
FY2012 - 83%
FY2013 - 92%

People upgrading earlier PD cases will tend to increase the %.

The data also seems to confirm a large increase in EB2 cases from FY10 onwards. I've used 2.05 applicants per approved I-140 and a 5% I-485 denial rate to calculate the figures:

Potential CP/Adjustment Cases for EB2

FY2009 - 35,092
FY2010 - 69,845
FY2011 - 88,021
FY2012 - 83,972
FY2013 - 85,528

Again, this is something of a kludge figure.

With EB2-I accounting for 55-60% of PERM cases, that gives some fairly scary potential numbers for later PD year EB2-I cases. Again, it's worth considering that many of the cases will actually have an earlier PD because they are upgrades from a previous EB3 case.

As ever, I urge you read the above using a large pinch of salt. The quality of the data is uncertain (even though it is the best we will likely see) and a certain amount of assumption is still required. I still hope people find it interesting, but don't over interpret my comments.

perestroika

06-30-2015, 04:41 PM

Spectator

06-30-2015, 06:11 PM

Spec, thanks for the analysis. I was curious about the denial rates, as they seem to be somewhat high and should have resulted in cut-off dates moving a little faster in all categories from everything else we know.

The report makes a statement about the denials, but I'm not sure I understood it. My own understanding is that the denial rates are high because approvals are only counted for petitions approved in a given fiscal year. Petitions filed but not approved in a given fiscal year are counted as denials, even though those petitions might be approved in the subsequent fiscal year. Did I understand this correctly, or is your understanding different from mine?perestroika,

That is not my understanding.

Completions equals Approvals plus Denials i.e. cases that had a final adjudication result.

Completions in a FY are not the same cases that are received in the FY.

Cases filed in a FY but not completed would be classified as Pending. The Pending figure is not given in the data in the report.

At the end of Q2 FY2015, USCIS reported (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all_forms_performancedata_fy2015_qtr2.pdf) they had 36,117 I-140 cases Pending.

gcq

07-01-2015, 12:23 AM

Today I received RFE notification on my and my wife's case with PD of May 2004 - EB3-I. Will wait for RFE details

perestroika

07-01-2015, 08:52 AM

Today I received RFE notification on my and my wife's case with PD of May 2004 - EB3-I. Will wait for RFE details Looks like CO heard you; you are being fast tracked! :-P Keep us posted!

perestroika

07-01-2015, 08:59 AM

perestroika,

That is not my understanding.

Completions equals Approvals plus Denials i.e. cases that had a final adjudication result.

Completions in a FY are not the same cases that are received in the FY.

Cases filed in a FY but not completed would be classified as Pending. The Pending figure is not given in the data in the report.

At the end of Q2 FY2015, USCIS reported (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all_forms_performancedata_fy2015_qtr2.pdf) they had 36,117 I-140 cases Pending. Spec, thanks for clarifying. Now, that makes sense.

It's still staggering to see a 20% denial rate on new EB3 I-140 petitions. Do we know if these denials are proportional to the country chargeabilities, or are they primarily for India?

gcq

07-01-2015, 09:23 AM

Looks like CO heard you; you are being fast tracked! :-P Keep us posted!
:-) should be. I should have done this long back !

amulchandra

07-01-2015, 09:55 AM

:-) should be. I should have done this long back !

Congratulations for getting one step closer to your GC! ( It is funny to congratulate for an RFE though).

On a side note looks like RFEs are being sent for EB3 I. There is one on trackitt with Aug 2004 EB3 I PD. One was reported with a June 2006 PD a week back.

I am hoping for big jump for EB3 I!

gcvijay

07-01-2015, 10:34 AM

"Overall, I favor EB2-I ending FY2015 with a COD somewhere in Q4 2009"
Spec,

Do you still believe on this or changing your perspective in the first page prediction you have said?

krishn

07-01-2015, 11:24 AM

Today I received RFE notification on my and my wife's case with PD of May 2004 - EB3-I. Will wait for RFE details

Hi GCQ, is your case with Nebraska or Texas service center ?

Thanks

Suva2001

07-01-2015, 11:31 AM

Today I received RFE notification on my and my wife's case with PD of May 2004 - EB3-I. Will wait for RFE details

That's a great sign for EB3-I.

gcq

07-01-2015, 11:53 AM

Hi GCQ, is your case with Nebraska or Texas service center ?

Thanks
I think it is Nebraska. Originally sent to texas in 2007, but was transferred and receipted in Nebraska as part of workload balancing it seems.

Kanmani

07-01-2015, 03:05 PM

Kanmani

07-01-2015, 03:22 PM

I-485 inventory - where is the country wise data??

gten20

07-01-2015, 03:25 PM

I-485 inventory - where is the country wise data??
:confused: Don't know whats going on.

Jagan01

07-01-2015, 03:26 PM

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_04-01-2015.pdf

Much awaited ... I-485 pending inventory ....

Ignore if already posted.I always thought that the next inventory report is going to be useless.
You can still derive the per country data by assuming that pending inventory prior to 2010 is mostly belonging to India and the pending inventory in 2013/2014/2015 is mostly belonging to EB2-nonIC.

qesehmk

07-01-2015, 03:32 PM

Shame on USCIS - they are actively working to keep things opaque.
First they release the data late. Then they hide the countrywise data.

On another note - comparing this with January inventory - it is clear that the inventory is increasing across the board - which is a bad sign for backlogged countries.

I-485 inventory - where is the country wise data??

amulchandra

07-01-2015, 03:40 PM

:confused: Don't know whats going on.

I don't see the link on their regular website with other inventory reports. It shows Jan 2015 report on the top.

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

I hope we did not hack into their files

qesehmk

07-01-2015, 04:02 PM

Refresh your browser. Perhaps it's your browser.
I don't see the link on their regular website with other inventory reports. It shows Jan 2015 report on the top.

http://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-through-job/previous-pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory/pending-employment-based-i-485-inventory

I hope we did not hack into their files

amulchandra

07-01-2015, 04:24 PM

Thanks Q. Yes it was by browser. I see it now.

ROCK72

07-01-2015, 07:41 PM

Today I received RFE notification on my and my wife's case with PD of May 2004 - EB3-I. Will wait for RFE details

GCQ,

Which service center was your I-485 applied at?

Thanks

Spectator

07-01-2015, 08:52 PM

"Overall, I favor EB2-I ending FY2015 with a COD somewhere in Q4 2009"
Spec,

Do you still believe on this or changing your perspective in the first page prediction you have said?gcvijay,

I also said:

Worldwide

Unless PERM processing time slow considerably, EB2-WW would generate sufficient demand to use their allocation in FY2015. FA to EB2-I would be limited. However, it seems very likely that PERM processing times will increase, allowing FA to EB2-I.

PERM processing times did not increase, so that scenario has actually happened.

I'll be surprised if there is any further movement for EB2-I this FY.

Worldwide demand remains high and there still appears to be a lot of cases yet to be approved within the 01OCT08 EB2-I COD.

qesehmk

07-01-2015, 09:03 PM

Sometimes I get worried Spec. People don't understand how fundamentally the demand has changed over the years and how EB2 is no longer in that good spot that it has enjoyed for almost a decade now.
gcvijay,

I also said:

PERM processing times did not increase, so that scenario has actually happened.

I'll be surprised if there is any further movement for EB2-I this FY.

Worldwide demand remains high and there still appears to be a lot of cases yet to be approved within the 01OCT08 EB2-I COD.

gcq

07-01-2015, 09:44 PM

GCQ,

Which service center was your I-485 applied at?

Thanks
Nebraska service center

amulchandra

07-02-2015, 10:57 AM

Nebraska service center

Looks like NSC is raining EB3I RFEs. The latest is for OCT 2004. What do you guys think about EB3 I movement.

Thanks
Amul

Suva2001

07-02-2015, 11:16 AM

I came here more than 15 years ago. I hope we get good SO this year.

geterdone

07-02-2015, 12:17 PM

gcvijay,

I also said:

PERM processing times did not increase, so that scenario has actually happened.

I'll be surprised if there is any further movement for EB2-I this FY.

Worldwide demand remains high and there still appears to be a lot of cases yet to be approved within the 01OCT08 EB2-I COD.

Spec,

Based on the inventory till April 01 there are ~6075 cases till Nov 2008. I would imagine most of them are from India. So just 6K total approvals for EB2 I this year?

bluelabel

07-02-2015, 01:58 PM

Total Trackitt Approvals for all EB in FY2015-

1st Quarter - 481 - Resulted in total 21368 approvals as per USCIS performance data so the conversion rate is 44.42412 ( 1 Trackitt approval is around 45 real approvals)

Non Indian approval % is 42.

2nd Quarter - 488 - Resulted in total 26232 approvals as per USCIS performance data so the conversion rate is 54 ( 1 Trackitt approval is 54 real approvals)

Non Indian approval % is 56

3rd Quarter - 945- Non Indian approval % is 49 so if the average conversion ratio is 50, it would result in Approx. 47250 approvals in 3rd quarter alone.

4th Quarter - if we take out 15% CP approvals we'll left with around 35425 GC for 4th quarter.

I am not sure how long these numbers can take EB3 India forward but looks like EB2I may not move further in FY 15.

Spectator

07-02-2015, 04:09 PM

Spec,

Based on the inventory till April 01 there are ~6075 cases till Nov 2008. I would imagine most of them are from India. So just 6K total approvals for EB2 I this year?geterdone,

To that number, you have to add approvals made in the period October-March. In addition, you can't assume that all porting cases that will be approved are actually shown in the EB2 Inventory.

For those reasons, the number of approvals needed to completely clear EB2-I up to the end of September would therefore be much more than the 5-5.k that might represent EB2-I cases.

jimmys

07-02-2015, 10:12 PM

Hi YT,
Any change in your earlier predictions?

aquatican

07-03-2015, 12:49 AM

Spec,
You made a pessimistic calculation in the Page 1 Post also.
That calculation was spot on. I remember reading that a year ago and I thought - No way it will be this bad.
Gotta hand it to you. SPOT ON.

jdoe99

07-03-2015, 06:25 AM

Spec and other experts,
I do not understand the 140 filings data published in the 2015 CISOMB annual report. According to the 140 filings table on page 51 (http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/2015%20CISOMB%20Annual%20Report_508.pdf), the 140 filings for EB3 has been low for the last few years at approximately 20K, and drops off to 5k and 485 for FY 2013 and 2014. Even factoring in the backlogged countries inability to file 485's, shouldn't the table correspond to the 485's and shouldn't we have seen EB3 spillovers in 10s of thousands to the backlogged countries by now. What am I missing? Could you help me understand the 140 table?

tiredtotrack

07-07-2015, 02:09 PM

Any idea why they would do that? Hiding/not giving country wise data. Is it because its difficult to derive that or something else is cooking?

YTeleven

07-07-2015, 09:43 PM

Hi YT,
Any change in your earlier predictions?

If you go back and look at my earlier posts, exactly a year ago I had projected 12k as the EB2I allocations in FY15. At the beginning of FY15 I changed that figure to 16k and 2 months ago I reduced it further to 14k and now if I relook at the available data pointers I’m circling back to 12k or even lesser figure and definitely not more. I don’t want to speculate anymore as we are almost at the end of the year and we will know in 2 or 3 months what could be that number. Instead I wanted to put my thoughts here for a long term view on EB-India. I was advocating for a longtime now that EB3-I backlogs will get wiped off in FY16 and it’s the time for beginning of the action. The brake-ups on the 140 numbers from this document: http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/2015%20CISOMB%20Annual%20Report_508.pdfis incredible and I was looking this kind of a data for long time. Thanks to Spec for pointing to this document. Though Spec rejected the numbers for FY14 from that document thinking that those were erroneous but I’m accepting those breakups even if I append a digit to the EB3-I figure:485 I’m still OK as those breakups will prove my long term prediction on EB3-I : EB3-I Projections (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92UnBIMC1qRDMzb0U/edit?pli=1).We have seen a very less action for last 9 months and even if it continues like that for the next 3 months I don’t worry as I am expecting there will be an intense action takes place in next 18 months and I’m expecting the following things will occur:
1) EB2-I becoming a new EB3-I in terms of backlogs
2) Complete Wipeout of EB3-I backlogs
3) EB2-I getting relief from a complete STOP on porting of EB3I-EB2I
4) People realizing a new avenue to circumvent the dense backlogs of EB2-I by the way of downgrading from EB2-I to EB3-I
5) More importantly inventory building of EB2-I and EB3-I.
6) Continuous domination of India in all the three EB categories 1, 2 & 3. We will not get surprised if EB-India alone gets 50K to 60K visas in these 3 categories put together on yearly basis.
Yes. We will witness all the above in the next 18 months i.e. till the end of CY16.

gc-4-gc

07-07-2015, 11:13 PM

If you go back and look at my earlier posts, exactly a year ago I had projected 12k as the EB2I allocations in FY15. At the beginning of FY15 I changed that figure to 16k and 2 months ago I reduced it further to 14k and now if I relook at the available data pointers I’m circling back to 12k or even lesser figure and definitely not more. I don’t want to speculate anymore as we are almost at the end of the year and we will know in 2 or 3 months what could be that number. Instead I wanted to put my thoughts here for a long term view on EB-India. I was advocating for a longtime now that EB3-I backlogs will get wiped off in FY16 and it’s the time for beginning of the action. The brake-ups on the 140 numbers from this document: http://www.dhs.gov/sites/default/files/publications/2015%20CISOMB%20Annual%20Report_508.pdfis incredible and I was looking this kind of a data for long time. Thanks to Spec for pointing to this document. Though Spec rejected the numbers for FY14 from that document thinking that those were erroneous but I’m accepting those breakups even if I append a digit to the EB3-I figure:485 I’m still OK as those breakups will prove my long term prediction on EB3-I : EB3-I Projections (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92UnBIMC1qRDMzb0U/edit?pli=1).We have seen a very less action for last 9 months and even if it continues like that for the next 3 months I don’t worry as I am expecting there will be an intense action takes place in next 18 months and I’m expecting the following things will occur:
1) EB2-I becoming a new EB3-I in terms of backlogs
2) Complete Wipeout of EB3-I backlogs
3) EB2-I getting relief from a complete STOP on porting of EB3I-EB2I
4) People realizing a new avenue to circumvent the dense backlogs of EB2-I by the way of downgrading from EB2-I to EB3-I
5) More importantly inventory building of EB2-I and EB3-I.
6) Continuous domination of India in all the three EB categories 1, 2 & 3. We will not get surprised if EB-India alone gets 50K to 60K visas in these 3 categories put together on yearly basis.
Yes. We will witness all the above in the next 18 months i.e. till the end of CY16.

Hi YT,
I looked up the data in 2015 USCIS Ombudsman report. Astonishing for EB3. If EB3 ROW becomes current and subsequently undersubscribed, do other EB3 areas get preference for using undersubscribed numbers over EB1, EB2?

Jagan01

07-08-2015, 02:41 PM

EB2-03252009

07-08-2015, 03:01 PM

YT,
I had mentioned back then when you made the prediction 2 months ago that the SO for EB2I will be much lesser. Please refer the post http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=55767#post55767
I would still feel that we can see a total of 8k-9k visas for EB2I (which means SO of approx 5k-6k) and still move into 2009 by the end of this FY.

Will it reach Apr/May 2009?

Jagan01

07-08-2015, 05:07 PM

Will it reach Apr/May 2009?Difficult to talk in terms of PD. I expect approx total of 8k-9k visas for EB2I in this FY. Following factors will decide the date movement.
1. Porting demand increase (there is no official number of this)
2. CO may decide different strategies
-- Consider that EB2I gets 9k total for this FY and CO decides that he is anyways going to use the next years allocation in Oct to Dec then he might advance dates considerably more than what demand-supply dictates. In that event dates might advance more.
-- CO might just stay conservative and wait till the very last minute and move the dates as late as possible. Therefore trying to stick as close to the statistics and just give buffer enough to ensure that there is no visa wastage.

I personally feel that it is difficult to guess the date movement accurately because a lot is left up to the CO to decide. IMO the dates will reach Mar 2009 (realistic) and anything beyond that is a bonus and should be welcomed.

SV2007

07-09-2015, 05:58 PM

Hi YT,

Wonderful analysis.

EB3 applicants with PD up to Dec 2004 are reporting RFE in trackitt, so most likely (and hopefully) EB3I moves at least to Dec 2004 in FY15 (within the next month or two). This would leave the remaining inventory in EB3I at 17K as of Oct 1st, 2015. This is also very much in line with your predictions several months ago.

Would you anticipate CO building inventory for EB3I in FY16 or will it be in FY17?

NewHope

07-10-2015, 10:44 AM

August Bulletin out : http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-august-2015.html
No Movement for EB2I and EB3I 1 Jun 2004

Spectator

07-10-2015, 10:52 AM

Thanks for the heads up.

Also of note is that EB3 China retrogressed over 7 years from 01SEP11 to 01JUN04 (the same as EB3-India and EB3 Philippines(who were Unavailable in July)):

D. CHINA-MAINLAND BORN EMPLOYMENT THIRD, AND THIRD OTHER WORKER VISA AVAILABILITY

There was an extremely large increase in applicant demand reported for consideration in the determination of the August cut-off dates. Therefore, it has been necessary to retrogress the Employment Third, and Third Other Worker cut-off dates to hold number use within the FY-2015 annual limit.

Every effort will be made to return those categories to the previously announced July cut-off dates as quickly as possible under the FY-2016 annual limits. Those limits will take effect October 1, 2015.

EB3-ROW and EB3 Mexico advance 3.5 months to 15JUL15.

EB2 China advanced 2.5 months to 15DEC13.

gcq

07-10-2015, 03:59 PM

Today I received RFE notification on my and my wife's case with PD of May 2004 - EB3-I. Will wait for RFE details
My lawyer received the RFE today
For myself
1.G-325A,
2.Medical,
3. EVL
4. Documentary evidence of all non-immigrant status granted to you since last lawful admission
5. Employment authorization since last lawful admission

For my wife:
1.G-325A,
2.Medical

Moveon

07-10-2015, 04:39 PM

Guru, how much time have they given to reply to the RFEs. Is it 12 weeks std for all including the EVL?.
My question in context of planning an India Trip and that gives me an Idea for how long to stay out.

axecapone

07-11-2015, 10:20 PM

Spectator

07-12-2015, 08:02 AM

Hey guys

I am trying to look at PERM data for some analysis. Basically I am interested in looking at number of PERMs filed by country's chargeability and cross-country chargeability: i.e. when the country of birth is not the same as country of citizenship. Is there anyway to get this data or generally data around PERM?

I thought this link was supposed to work but looks like its not working anymore

http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfmOFLC included the information on both Country of Citizenship an Country of Birth for the first time in the Q2 FY2015 PERM disclosure figures. Technically it has been available in the ETA9089 information within the DOL LCR system.

I have the data for the first half FY2015 PERM Certifications. It should be reasonably accurate. I've only shown numbers for cases where there was a difference.

Birth Country shown below Country of Citizenship.

INDIA Citizenship

CHINA ------------ 2
PHILIPPINES ------ 3
ROW ------------ 156

CHINA Citizenship

ROW -------------- 3

MEXICO Citizenship

CHINA ------------ 1
ROW -------------- 8

PHILIPPINES Citizenship

ROW -------------- 1

ROW Citizenship

INDIA ---------- 208
CHINA ---------- 254
MEXICO ---------- 11
PHILIPPINES ----- 21
ROW ------------ 988 (i.e. Different Country of Birth, but still ROW)

Grand Total ----------- 1,656

Total Certifications - 36,373

Hope that helps you out.

krishn

07-12-2015, 10:17 AM

krishn

07-12-2015, 10:22 AM

is uscis asking to do biometris?

Doesn't USCIS need Biometrics, fingerprints? I have just done it only once in 2k7.

My lawyer received the RFE today
For myself
1.G-325A,
2.Medical,
3. EVL
4. Documentary evidence of all non-immigrant status granted to you since last lawful admission
5. Employment authorization since last lawful admission

For my wife:
1.G-325A,
2.Medical

gcq

07-12-2015, 03:19 PM

is uscis asking to do biometris?

Doesn't USCIS need Biometrics, fingerprints? I have just done it only once in 2k7.
It wasn't asked of me. I did it in 2007 too. Fingerprints probably no since finderprint doesn't change.
Biometrics: photo, they should have our latest from EAD/AP filings I guess.

gcq

07-12-2015, 03:25 PM

I asked for EVL from corporate, they issued a standard 2 line EVL, with job title and salary.
Is it required to have job duties in it?

The HR dept have lost the job posting coz its been several years they have hired me.

Any suggestions on EVL format and contents.

Thanks

My lawyer received the RFE today
For myself
1.G-325A,
2.Medical,
3. EVL
4. Documentary evidence of all non-immigrant status granted to you since last lawful admission
5. Employment authorization since last lawful admission

For my wife:
1.G-325A,
2.Medical
If Title is same as the labor title or same SOC code it should not matter. However if it does not match, you will have to provide job description to prove that your job is "same or similar" as per AC21.

The evl format in the link below should be a good one.

http://forums.immigration.com/threads/urgent-any-draft-for-the-i-485-rfe-evl-letter.210023/

krishn

07-12-2015, 05:27 PM

thanks gcq

axecapone

07-12-2015, 06:05 PM

Hey Spec

As always, thanks sharing! Can you share with me how you got this information? Did you actually go through all the 9089's?

OFLC included the information on both Country of Citizenship an Country of Birth for the first time in the Q2 FY2015 PERM disclosure figures. Technically it has been available in the ETA9089 information within the DOL LCR system.

I have the data for the first half FY2015 PERM Certifications. It should be reasonably accurate. I've only shown numbers for cases where there was a difference.

Birth Country shown below Country of Citizenship.

INDIA Citizenship

CHINA ------------ 2
PHILIPPINES ------ 3
ROW ------------ 156

CHINA Citizenship

ROW -------------- 3

MEXICO Citizenship

CHINA ------------ 1
ROW -------------- 8

PHILIPPINES Citizenship

ROW -------------- 1

ROW Citizenship

INDIA ---------- 208
CHINA ---------- 254
MEXICO ---------- 11
PHILIPPINES ----- 21
ROW ------------ 988 (i.e. Different Country of Birth, but still ROW)

Grand Total ----------- 1,656

Total Certifications - 36,373

Hope that helps you out.

Spectator

07-13-2015, 07:39 AM

Hey Spec

As always, thanks sharing! Can you share with me how you got this information? Did you actually go through all the 9089's?axecapone,

To answer your question, I noticed fairly early on that Permchecker.com was showing the Country of Birth in their data. OFLC was publishing Country of Citizenship.

When the OFLC Quarterly Data Disclosure was published, I always reconciled and combined the two data sources and was left with both Birth and Citizenship data for all Certified cases. It's then a trivial exercise to look at the number of cases where Bith and Citizenship Countries are different.

At various times, I have had to go through over a 1,000 9089 when there was a data gap. Usually this was caused when the DOL LCR didn't update for several days and Permchecker.com did not update their data after the LCR was finally updated.

Hopefully, OFLC will continue to publish the data required quarterly and I will not have to do that again.

almost

07-14-2015, 10:08 AM

geterdone

07-14-2015, 11:41 AM

almost

07-14-2015, 12:31 PM

On Trackitt I saw someone with Dec 2009 -TSC that got an RFE. Do you mind sharing your RD and whether it is TSC or NSC? I guess we have to see more RFEs to see if this means anything.

Geterdone,
As i mentioned above, my RD is 05/01/2009. I believe my application is at TSC. I am hoping this RFE is good news for a lot of us 2009ers.

geterdone

07-14-2015, 01:15 PM

Geterdone,
As i mentioned above, my RD is 05/01/2009. I believe my application is at TSC. I am hoping this RFE is good news for a lot of us 2009ers.

Almost,

RD- Date when TSC received your application. 05/01/09 is your PD.

cursedguy

07-14-2015, 01:43 PM

All,

I have an EB2 priority date of 1st May 2009 and just got a text and email stating that an RFE has been issued on my 485 application. Does this mean that the date might actually move that far from 1st Oct 2008? Maybe there is still hope for the people in early 2009.

Although I will know in a couple of days what the story is but I expect either something for medical or EVL; medical would be a non issue but the odds are low as my wifes application didnt get one. On the EVL part, I am self employed right now through my own LLC. Is there anyone else who has been through an RFE in a similar circumstance? Any information would be helpful.

Thanks

I would not put too much thought in to it, the officer who has your file has no indication where the dates will be next month. It just means he reviewed your file and need additional information to process it. My dates are in April 2009 and replied a RFE in the past. The status went back to

On April XX, 2015, we received your response to our Request for Evidence for your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or to Adjust Status, Receipt Number LIN149... Our Nebraska Service Center office will begin working on your case again. We will mail you a decision or notify you if we need something from you. If you move, go to www.uscis.gov/addresschange to give us your new mailing address.

almost

07-14-2015, 01:49 PM

geterdone,
Will have to check the RD for 485 but if I remember correctly it was within the month that the date became current. Will post an update later in the day after looking at the receipt notice.
Just out of curiosity, what difference does it make?

almost

07-14-2015, 01:51 PM

cursedguy,
Did you receive the RFE sometime around March? and what was it for if I may ask?
Thanks

cursedguy

07-14-2015, 01:54 PM

Yes in March, It was for clear and color copies of passport.

Raj0687

07-14-2015, 03:24 PM

YT,
You still betting big on the processing times, to get 12K SO to EB2I in FY15?

Is it not the EB3 ROW has already realized drop in demand and rising demand towards the end of FY15 and leaving few EB3 spills in FY15 than expected.
Could it leading to sufficient EB3ROW demand and less EB2ROW demand by the end of FY16 itself?

bluelabel

07-15-2015, 10:46 AM

I-485 inventory has country wide classifications now. Looks like USCIS updated it.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_04-01-2015.pdf

CleanSock

07-15-2015, 11:19 AM

EB2ROW applications have doubled in 2014 from 2013. That doesn't look right for EB2I.

I-485 inventory has country wide classifications now. Looks like USCIS updated it.

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_04-01-2015.pdf

tatikonda

07-15-2015, 04:10 PM

Hi All,

Looks like there is an Update of Legal Immigration System Modernization from WhiteHouse.
I quickly looked into it.. nothing great for EB category in short terms..
maybe helpful for next generations folks.. not for some of us you are stuck in EB2/EB3 India.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/final_visa_modernization_report1.pdf

Regards
Tatikonda

CleanSock

07-15-2015, 04:16 PM

Recommendations in the pdf.

Recommendation 1: Update the monthly Visa Bulletin. Later this year, State, in consultation
with DHS, will revise the monthly Visa Bulletin to better estimate immigrant visa availability for
prospective applicants, providing needed predictability to nonimmigrant workers seeking
permanent residency. The revisions will help ensure that the maximum number of available visas
is issued every year, while also minimizing the potential for visa retrogression.26 These changes
will further allow more individuals seeking LPR status to work, change jobs, and accept
promotions. By increasing efficiency in visa issuance, individuals and their families who are
already on the path to becoming LPRs will have increased security that they can stay in the United
States, set down roots, and more confidently seek out opportunities to build lives in our country.

Recommendation 2: Refine monthly allocation of visas. State will increase monthly visa
allocation totals during the first three quarters of the fiscal year to the degree permitted by law
in order to ensure that fewer numbers are left for the final quarter, thereby ensuring that visa
numbers issued are as closely aligned with statutory mandates as possible.

Recommendation 3: Improve numerically controlled immigrant visa appointments. State’s
National Visa Center will alter how numerically controlled immigrant visa appointments are
scheduled for the last month of the fiscal year (September) to provide sufficient time to evaluate
whether there may be potentially unused numbers. This change will allow for the scheduling of
additional cases when necessary in order to maximize the numbers of visas used, consistent with
the annual limits.

Recommendation 4: Clarify and expand protections for employment-based immigrants and
nonimmigrants. DHS intends to publish a regulation clarifying and expanding on the protections
afforded employment-based immigrants and nonimmigrants under the American
Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act of 2000 (“AC-21”), which was meant to increase
job flexibility for individuals who were coming to the United States to perform specialty
occupation services (H-1B) and those on the pathway to permanent residency. This regulation
will:
• Increase the ability of workers waiting for a green card to change jobs or receive
promotions by clarifying when individuals may change jobs or employers because such
employment is “same or similar” to the job that was the original basis for permanent
residency;
• Further increase job flexibility by enabling individuals whose employment-sponsored
immigrant visa petitions have been approved for more than one year to retain eligibility
for LPR status despite the petitioning employer closing its business or seeking to withdraw
the approved petition;
• Provide increased guidance on job flexibility provisions for H-1B workers seeking other H-
1B employment, including changing jobs or employers;
• Extend grace periods for certain nonimmigrant workers whose period of authorized stay
has expired, including because their jobs have been terminated, to better allow them to
obtain other employment without losing their nonimmigrant status;
• Clarify when H-1B nonimmigrants may begin working without required licensure;
• Provide increased guidance on the maximum period of admission for H-1B
nonimmigrants, including for those who are on the path to LPR status, and enable H-1B
nonimmigrants to recapture time spent outside of the United States;
• Clarify which H-1B nonimmigrants are exempt from the statutory cap to ensure that those
nonimmigrants who are contributing to U.S. research and the education of Americans
may remain in the United States; and
• Protect H-1B nonimmigrants who suffered retaliatory actions because they reported
labor violations committed by their employer.

Hi All,

Looks like there is an Update of Legal Immigration System Modernization from WhiteHouse.
I quickly looked into it.. nothing great for EB category in short terms..
maybe helpful for next generations folks.. not for some of us you are stuck in EB2/EB3 India.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/final_visa_modernization_report1.pdf

Regards
Tatikonda

tatikonda

07-16-2015, 12:10 PM

Yes, I read them but none of them are great reforms for those who stuck in the process. except for portability.
- No recapture of visas.
- Not counting Dependents
- Country quota
- Increase visa numbers

where some of the expectations but none are there. ( they may not fall under category of "Rules" these may require action from congress men"

Recommendations in the pdf.

Recommendation 1: Update the monthly Visa Bulletin. Later this year, State, in consultation
with DHS, will revise the monthly Visa Bulletin to better estimate immigrant visa availability for
prospective applicants, providing needed predictability to nonimmigrant workers seeking
permanent residency. The revisions will help ensure that the maximum number of available visas
is issued every year, while also minimizing the potential for visa retrogression.26 These changes
will further allow more individuals seeking LPR status to work, change jobs, and accept
promotions. By increasing efficiency in visa issuance, individuals and their families who are
already on the path to becoming LPRs will have increased security that they can stay in the United
States, set down roots, and more confidently seek out opportunities to build lives in our country.

Recommendation 2: Refine monthly allocation of visas. State will increase monthly visa
allocation totals during the first three quarters of the fiscal year to the degree permitted by law
in order to ensure that fewer numbers are left for the final quarter, thereby ensuring that visa
numbers issued are as closely aligned with statutory mandates as possible.

Recommendation 3: Improve numerically controlled immigrant visa appointments. State’s
National Visa Center will alter how numerically controlled immigrant visa appointments are
scheduled for the last month of the fiscal year (September) to provide sufficient time to evaluate
whether there may be potentially unused numbers. This change will allow for the scheduling of
additional cases when necessary in order to maximize the numbers of visas used, consistent with
the annual limits.

Recommendation 4: Clarify and expand protections for employment-based immigrants and
nonimmigrants. DHS intends to publish a regulation clarifying and expanding on the protections
afforded employment-based immigrants and nonimmigrants under the American
Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act of 2000 (“AC-21”), which was meant to increase
job flexibility for individuals who were coming to the United States to perform specialty
occupation services (H-1B) and those on the pathway to permanent residency. This regulation
will:
• Increase the ability of workers waiting for a green card to change jobs or receive
promotions by clarifying when individuals may change jobs or employers because such
employment is “same or similar” to the job that was the original basis for permanent
residency;
• Further increase job flexibility by enabling individuals whose employment-sponsored
immigrant visa petitions have been approved for more than one year to retain eligibility
for LPR status despite the petitioning employer closing its business or seeking to withdraw
the approved petition;
• Provide increased guidance on job flexibility provisions for H-1B workers seeking other H-
1B employment, including changing jobs or employers;
• Extend grace periods for certain nonimmigrant workers whose period of authorized stay
has expired, including because their jobs have been terminated, to better allow them to
obtain other employment without losing their nonimmigrant status;
• Clarify when H-1B nonimmigrants may begin working without required licensure;
• Provide increased guidance on the maximum period of admission for H-1B
nonimmigrants, including for those who are on the path to LPR status, and enable H-1B
nonimmigrants to recapture time spent outside of the United States;
• Clarify which H-1B nonimmigrants are exempt from the statutory cap to ensure that those
nonimmigrants who are contributing to U.S. research and the education of Americans
may remain in the United States; and
• Protect H-1B nonimmigrants who suffered retaliatory actions because they reported
labor violations committed by their employer.

aquatican

07-16-2015, 04:13 PM

srimurthy

07-17-2015, 09:41 AM

Actually the I140 Portability reform is pretty darn awesome.
The problem with this report is there is NO Timeframe as to when this will happen ( If AT ALL it will happen).
Since November 2014 the only thing which has really happened is H4 EAD ( Which was in motion for months before the November 2014 announcement).
If i hadnt been let down repeatedly by guvment and reports I would say 'I am keeping my fingers crossed'.

We have moved from a 4 year turnaround time for EB2I to more than 6 years now. And I guess in a couple of years EB1 India folks will also start having a similar impact with increasing timelines.
Employment based is purely skill set requirement, so unless we take out country limits for Employment based and get everyone on the same page, and every country pushing for the reforms we won't see much happening. With a Sep/10 PD, and no EAD and not seeing it happening it in 2016 just resigned to fate. Meanwhile the H4EAD atleast has helped providing an avenue for relief instead of running around consulting companies on both spouses.

Spectator

07-17-2015, 01:37 PM

Courtesy of Ron Gotcher - Link (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/general-discussion-2.18400/page-12)

EB-3 Update and Significant Retrogression in EB-3 China.

In August, EB-3 China will retrogress seven years to June 1, 2004. It initially appeared that there would be unused [China] family-sponsored numbers available in this category, allowing for advances in the cut-off date earlier in the year. But, demand in family-sponsored China has changed drastically, making the availability of additional numbers very unlikely. Another reason for the retrogression is that the advancement of the cut-off date for EB-3 China earlier in the fiscal year generated significant demand within the allowable annual limit. The good news is that this category will likely recover at the start of the new fiscal year, moving back to a 2010 or possibly 2011 cut-off date in October. EB-3 Other Workers will also retrogress two years to January 1, 2004.

EB-3 China, EB-3 India and EB-3 Philippines.

All have the potential to move forward a few months in September, depending on demand for EB-3 Worldwide through early August.

EB-3 Worldwide and EB-3 Mexico.

Charlie predicts EB-3 Worldwide and EB-3 Mexico will continue to advance in September but may hold steady starting in October for a month or two to see if significant demand from the recent advancement of the cut-off date materializes.

EB-2 India and China.

EB-2 India remained unchanged this month as predicted. There is sufficient demand in this category based on the current cut-off date and this date is likely to hold until at least October. Movement would only be possible if there were a significant decline in EB-1 and EB-2 demand from all other countries prior to the determination of the September cut-off dates. This situation is being monitored very closely. EB-2 China moved forward by 2 1/2 months to December 15, 2003. Based on current demand, this date is likely to either move slightly or remain the same for September.

F2-A Worldwide.

This category is moving very rapidly and is likely to continue to move rapidly due to a severe lack of demand. This will continue until demand materializes.

There are the actual AILA words, rather than Oh Law Firm's interpretation.

migo79

07-18-2015, 02:38 AM

Thank you Spec,
Finally he admitted the SO from EB3ROW :)
The number of pending EB3ROW applicant is quite low ''11375" (if we trust it)

I think EB3ROW will remain current as long as the current perm trend continue, next year will be interesting for EB3I :-)

gcq

07-18-2015, 10:23 AM

immigrant2007

07-20-2015, 01:03 PM

Based on country data in addendum in the latest USCIS 485 Inventory, what are the estimates for EB3I?
Spec, you still sticking to your earlier dates?

idiotic

07-20-2015, 04:02 PM

abcx13

07-22-2015, 05:39 PM

axecapone

07-22-2015, 08:16 PM

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Laws/FedReg/Draft_I-601A_Unlawful_Presence_Expansion_NPRM_Clean_071415 .pdf

Did I read it correct? They seem to have included Employment based I140 for eligibility into DACA.

This is the only use case I see with this rule: For EB folks, if you lose your job, you can stay in this country forever (unlawfully) till your date becomes current (and hopefully you have not been deported and not voluntarily left the country and your previous employer has not withdrawn your I-140) and then apply for unlawful presence waiver and go through consular processing to get your GC (assuming your waiver has been approved)? Also this rule does not seem to give any benefit for applying for new H1/H4 or F1 or B1/B2 or L1/L2 visas.

This is like Amazon Prime Day: Lot of new rules but nothing that you want.

RGVJSR

07-26-2015, 09:20 PM

nbk1976

07-27-2015, 09:11 PM

Jonty Rhodes

07-28-2015, 09:30 AM

Dear Members,

Sorry to write this in I-485 forum. I am urgently travelling to India and currently on I-485 pending+EAD+ travel parole status. While coming back to US, my passport will be valid for 5 months only. Unfortunately I didn't have time to renew it now. So plan to renew it once I come back.
Will it be a problem to enter with 5 months validity left passport + travel parole status.
Please share any info or experience.
Thanks.

-RGV1

I agree with nbk1976. I have also heard that passport process is much smoother in India now and Tatkaal passports can be obtained within minimum 3 business days. I was in a similar situation like you in December, 2013 except that I had not filed I-485 and didn't have EAD. I was (and still is) on H1B and and I had to have stamping done in India. I had a family emergency so we had to go. I inquired in India about getting a passport under Tatkaal scheme. I was told that it would take anywhere from 3-7 days for the passport. However, I decided against it because I had to get a date for stamping at US Consulate also after getting a new passport and my stay in India was short so I finally decided to apply for passport at Chicago Consulate. And trust me, it was a nightmare to deal with those people at Indian Consulate in Chicago. I had to literally fight with them for 3 consecutive days and spend so many hours at consulate just to get one signature. Also, in my case, my source told me that passport office in Ahmedabad was short of passport books at that time and they were waiting for the new shipment of passport books to arrive which would have taken 21 days. That was another reason I had to opt to get my passport renewed under Tatkaal scheme from Indian Consulate in Chicago.

I would suggest that you ask a friend or family member in India to find out and inquire about the current status of how fast you can get passport under Tatkaal scheme in India. If you are going for a month, I believe you should be able to obtain your new passport in India without any difficulty. You also don't have to worry about stamping unlike my case so you should be fine and that's one factor in your favor also. But be sure, before you go there. Technically, you should be able to travel on an Indian passport with less than 6 months validity also according to articles on Internet but I feel that it is better not to take that risk.

Hopefully, this was helpful. Good luck.

tenyearsgone

07-29-2015, 02:45 PM

I had my passport renewed in the SFO embassy 5 years back and it took 3 hours (yes .. HOURS) under Tatkaal without any emergency.. I know this sounds unbelievable to many folks and I was worried/skeptical about the process when I went in to the office too. I had spent many hours on the consulate website and forums and had every kind of paperwork fully ready. The officer was courteous and took a look at all the paperwork, asked a few questions and sighed "I wish everyone would just be prepared as you are.. it would make our life pleasant". So .. yeah, it is possible to get your passport renewed quickly under Tatkaal in the US.

Caveat: Clearly, not all embassies and officers are equal.. YMMV. As Jonty mentioned, the officer's attitude makes a huge difference.

I agree with nbk1976. I have also heard that passport process is much smoother in India now and Tatkaal passports can be obtained within minimum 3 business days. I was in a similar situation like you in December, 2013 except that I had not filed I-485 and didn't have EAD. I was (and still is) on H1B and and I had to have stamping done in India. I had a family emergency so we had to go. I inquired in India about getting a passport under Tatkaal scheme. I was told that it would take anywhere from 3-7 days for the passport. However, I decided against it because I had to get a date for stamping at US Consulate also after getting a new passport and my stay in India was short so I finally decided to apply for passport at Chicago Consulate. And trust me, it was a nightmare to deal with those people at Indian Consulate in Chicago. I had to literally fight with them for 3 consecutive days and spend so many hours at consulate just to get one signature. Also, in my case, my source told me that passport office in Ahmedabad was short of passport books at that time and they were waiting for the new shipment of passport books to arrive which would have taken 21 days. That was another reason I had to opt to get my passport renewed under Tatkaal scheme from Indian Consulate in Chicago.

I would suggest that you ask a friend or family member in India to find out and inquire about the current status of how fast you can get passport under Tatkaal scheme in India. If you are going for a month, I believe you should be able to obtain your new passport in India without any difficulty. You also don't have to worry about stamping unlike my case so you should be fine and that's one factor in your favor also. But be sure, before you go there. Technically, you should be able to travel on an Indian passport with less than 6 months validity also according to articles on Internet but I feel that it is better not to take that risk.

Hopefully, this was helpful. Good luck.

Jonty Rhodes

07-29-2015, 05:09 PM

I had my passport renewed in the SFO embassy 5 years back and it took 3 hours (yes .. HOURS) under Tatkaal without any emergency.. I know this sounds unbelievable to many folks and I was worried/skeptical about the process when I went in to the office too. I had spent many hours on the consulate website and forums and had every kind of paperwork fully ready. The officer was courteous and took a look at all the paperwork, asked a few questions and sighed "I wish everyone would just be prepared as you are.. it would make our life pleasant". So .. yeah, it is possible to get your passport renewed quickly under Tatkaal in the US.

Caveat: Clearly, not all embassies and officers are equal.. YMMV. As Jonty mentioned, the officer's attitude makes a huge difference.

Man, you were lucky. I had all the required documents with me when I went to Consulate for Urgent Passport but the officer refused to listen to me for 3 consecutive days and even refused to take a look at the application. I asked him to at least look at the application but he was very rude and just kept telling me that we don't issue urgent passport which I knew was a blatant lie. Finally, after 3 consecutive days of going to Consulate, I had enough and I had to raise my voice. I had to shout and yell in the Consulate just to tell him that he was very rude for no good reason and unless he provides me a truthful good reason why he is not even looking at my application and why Consulate is not issuing urgent passport, I would not leave the Consulate. In fact, I went to the extent of threatening to contact MEA and PMO (It was UPA ruling at that time) and the then Indian Ambassador to US S. Jaishankar. Finally, after my shouting episode ended, he called me back to window and took my application. Without checking the documents, he forwarded the documents to Consulate Officer. Within 5 minutes, I was called to the window. Consulate Officer signed the application without asking me any question and I took it back to BLS office. My passport was printed the same evening within 6 hours and I received it next day. I later on felt embarrassed by my own shouting episode but I had no choice as I had a family emergency and I had to leave and these people were completely unresponsive.

Prabhas

07-30-2015, 01:13 PM

Guys!

Apologies for posting this question on a wrong forum, but doing it for the sake of maximum visibility.

I am in a catch 22 situation here. I recently purchased a new house and before I could enjoy the change in my personal situation, my status reality struck me. My H1-B was recently got extended up until 2018 on my approved I-140 and am hoping to get an EAD within this time frame. But, the mandatory amendment has become a pain in the neck. In the mist of my house closing and moving projects which occurred at the same time, I am now delayed by 15 days in applying for new LCA and then the amendment. I already started this new project. The new rule says that I should apply for LCA even before joining this new project ( this has been a rule since day one and my employer was punctual ) except this one time.

Can you guys advice me with any options. Will it be a bludgeon to apply for a LCA now and an ammendment, with the PO/SOW that has a start date in the past?

Regards,

V

NeelVohra

08-06-2015, 12:47 PM

hope21

08-06-2015, 03:06 PM

Just wanted to share with everyone on the forum that my spouse and I received RFE notifications today.

We are on EB2-I with a PD of 12/2009. I expect this to be for EVL and medical. I will update with others when I receive the notice.

Hope that this is a sign of forward movement. However unlikely it seems.

Neel, Thanks for sharing this information. Just curious whether we will see more of these kinds of RFEs(which will surely be a good sign) or its just that you changed jobs, filed AC21 or your company changed hands that triggered this RFE.

hope21

08-06-2015, 03:12 PM

vizcard

08-06-2015, 07:20 PM

Can you guys advice me with any options. Will it be a bludgeon to apply for a LCA now and an ammendment, with the PO/SOW that has a start date in the past?

Regards,

V

Im not sure if it will bludgeon it but it will need quite a bit of explanation.

Spectator

08-06-2015, 08:45 PM

Can you guys advice me with any options. Will it be a bludgeon to apply for a LCA now and an ammendment, with the PO/SOW that has a start date in the past?

Regards,

Im not sure if it will bludgeon it but it will need quite a bit of explanation.vizcard,

That's for sure, but there isn't really an alternative.

Prabhas,

Without the LCA and pending amendment, you are not adhering to the terms of your H1B at the moment. You are therefore out of status, unless you return to the job for which you do have an LCA and H1B petition approval for.

That's the bottom line.

4WatItsWorth

08-07-2015, 01:20 PM

As the year comes to a close and the final VB comes out in a few days, are there any final predictions anyone wants to make this for this year? What about the next year?

Prabhas

08-10-2015, 09:52 AM

Spec/ Viz,

Thank you very much for the valuable suggestions. I have applied for the amendment with the first fifteen days as vacation. Good that I was not onsite due the long weekend and house closing activities. Will keep you posted on the outcome.

Also in the interim I got another role at a new client which we are looking at and this time we had these pre-requisites ( Client and Vendor Letter) already addressed with them. If this works out I may just swap my amendment to this new role. Let me know if there is anything I have to be cautious about.

V

hope21

08-10-2015, 10:39 PM

Long time follower. Very thankful to stalwarts/experts like Spec, Teddy, Q, Kanmani, YT and many more. Based on reading everyone's comments, my little knowledge/observation, here are my two cents:

For EB2I -
Sep Bulletin - Feb to Apr 2009
FY 16 - Feb to Apr 2010
FY 17 (First Quarter) - Inventory Build Up

NeelVohra

08-11-2015, 10:30 PM

Neel, Thanks for sharing this information. Just curious whether we will see more of these kinds of RFEs and there was no other factor that contributed to this RFE(which will surely be a good sign as you stated) or is it that you changed employers/filed AC21/or your company changed hands that might have triggered this RFE(based on my little knowledge on this).

Just an update. Received the RFE notices today.
They have asked for an updated I-693, G-325A, EVL and Proof of Legal Status. For my wife, all these except for the EVL.

I did submit an AC-21 in March-2013 ( 12 months after filing I-485 ). I got a set of address change status updates at that time. Cant say whether the RFE is related to that.

lozolneo

08-12-2015, 06:15 AM

Neel- can you please let me know when you need to submit the requirement documents by? Have they said you need to return the documents in 30 or 60 days or so?

thanks,

NeelVohra

08-12-2015, 08:09 AM

Neel- can you please let me know when you need to submit the requirement documents by? Have they said you need to return the documents in 30 or 60 days or so?

thanks,

They did not specify a deadline. I thot that was weird and had posted on trackitt whether anyone has seen something similar. Especially as the notice also asked me to respond by the deadline which is not mentioned anywhere on either of the notices or gold sheets.

gcpursuit

08-12-2015, 09:07 AM

September VB out

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-september-2015.html

Spectator

08-12-2015, 09:11 AM

So EB2-India and EB2-China have retrogressed to 01JAN06.

I think that answers the question about remaining visa numbers. I wonder whether there will be internal retrogression in August?

Good news for EB3-I. The COD moves to 22DEC04.

The VB also includes the official number of EB visas for the year.

D. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizen and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 28th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2015 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2015 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 144,796

Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2015 the per-country limit is 25,956. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,416.

4WatItsWorth

08-12-2015, 10:04 AM

So EB2-India and EB2-China have retrogressed to 01JAN06.
As opposed to Jan-Mar2009 for EB2-I, as some had speculated. How much do you think EB2-I might have gotten in total? And, what does this mean for the next year?

Spectator

08-12-2015, 02:36 PM

jimmys

08-12-2015, 03:13 PM

EB2-ROW inventory has dropped about 2.1k, which isn't much considering the number of approvals seen in May and June.

Hi Spec,
I don't see this as a positive sign for next FY for EB2-I. Do you feel so too?

Jagan01

08-12-2015, 03:26 PM

The USCIS Inventory as at July 20, 2015 has been released http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/EB_I485_Pending_Inventory_07202015.pdf

EB1 inventory remains almost unchanged.

EB2-ROW inventory has dropped about 2.1k, which isn't much considering the number of approvals seen in May and June.Spec,
You forgot to mention April which based on trackitt numbers was the month when the highest number of EB2ROW approvals occurred.

Don't you think it is hard to believe that inventory for EB2ROW went down by only 2.1 K for April+May+June+ (May be 20 days of July) ?

I am just finding that number published in the inventory hard to believe. Any inputs ?

CleanSock

08-12-2015, 03:37 PM

EB2I has about 17,500 just in 2008,2009 and 2010. That plus porting numbers. If next FY is anything like this FY then I don't think it'll even go beyond 2009 by the end of FY16.

kkruna

08-12-2015, 04:28 PM

For a rough calc, EB1 inventory is 27K and EB2 45K.
Availability next year for these two categories: 83K

Assuming a steady state approval times and queue, this should mean an additional 11K of backlogged EB1 and 2 can be approved.

This should mean EB2 India should move into early 2011 by end-2016. Given the objective to move dates sooner rather than later, this should happen by around Jun 2016.

I am already suspecting above is too simplistic. Gurus please advise.

Spectator

08-12-2015, 05:03 PM

As the year comes to a close and the final VB comes out in a few days, are there any final predictions anyone wants to make this for this year? What about the next year?

As opposed to Jan-Mar2009 for EB2-I, as some had speculated. How much do you think EB2-I might have gotten in total? And, what does this mean for the next year?

Hi Spec,
I don't see this as a positive sign for next FY for EB2-I. Do you feel so too?

I'm hesitant to reply to these questions, but here goes anyway.

As for this FY, I think we're looking at 4 figures rather than 5. If pushed, I'd guess at 6-8k, but with a low confidence level.

It's really too early to talk about next FY.

At a very broad view (speculation really), FY2016 should be better than this FY, but don't expect miracles absent major changes to the system. Maybe a few extra thousands.

There won't be the sharp spike in non IC approvals seen in FY2015, but OFLC have been very productive this FY and the number of certified PERM is heading for well in excess of 70k for the FY.

Although over 6k of these to date are CTS certifications (99% Indian), ROW certifications have been at a continuing healthy level. Many of these will only be seen as I-485 approvals in FY2016.

In addition, OFLC have requested budget in FY2016 for 17 additional employees to reduce the PERM backlog, which is currently in excess of 60k. If granted:

With these resources, OFLC projects that 96,450 PERM applications will be processed – a 36 percent increase from FY 2014 and over 16,000 more applications than are expected to be received in FY 2016.

This means we can expect healthy numbers of certifications to continue as FY2016 begins.

Inevitably, that would result in an increased number of ROW certifications. Whether it impacts FY2016 might be determined by the timing of the new hires.

On the other hand, the budget proposal also mentions the introduction of a fee for PERM. It's possible (although unlikely IMO) that this could deter some from filing PERM.

It's possible more ROW could apply at the I-140 stage under EB3, given that the EB3-ROW COD is virtually Current. On the other hand, unless EB2-ROW retrogresses, there isn't really any advantage or incentive to do so. It isn't analogous to the China situation.

If some kind of preregistration is introduced, it's almost certain that concurrent filing of I-140/I-485 will be discontinued. That may have some effect, dependent on timing, but it will probably just lead to an increase in PP requests for I-140 processing (where available). The effect is possibly limited anyway, since USCIS do very little processing of the I-485 until the I-140 is approved.

If preregistration is introduced, I suspect it will mirror the NVC model where applicants can documentarily qualify 6-12 months before the COD is expected to reach their PD. AOS applicants within 6-12 months of the COD could file their I-485/I-131/I-765 packages. The cases should be preadjudicated (and a visa number requested from DOS) by the time the COD reaches the PD.

This could be a double edged sword. With much more accurate figures available to DOS of preadjudicated cases, the need for large forward movements of the COD to build an Inventory would no longer exist. Eventually, the COD would only move very slowly forward from 01MAY10, rather than a large jump similar to that seen in FY2012.

If DOS move to a quarterly release of spillover model (Q would be pleased), the ongoing COD movement might become small but relatively constant (barring large demand from non IC cases in later quarters). A quarterly spillover model should mean that relatively few approvals are needed in Q4 compared to the present.

I don't think porting will decline as much as some other people do in FY2016.

a) The process is quite long and those who will port in FY2016 have already started the process. There's a delay of at least a year, once porting slows.

b) The majority of porting now seem to come from relatively later PD years. EB3-I won't reach those dates in FY2016, so the advantage of porting still exists.

I don't know if anyone else has noticed that the Inventory only reduces YoY by less than 60% of the actual visa numbers that EB2-I has received.

FY2013
Actual -- 17,193
Change --- 9,834
% ------- 57.20%

FY2014
Actual -- 23,528
Change -- 12,276
% ------- 52.18%

Given the number remaining and the likely availability of visa numbers next year, it seems extremely difficult for EB2-I to move beyond a COD somewhere in the second half of 2009 if that trend continues. Of course, it may not. For instance, porting cases seemed somewhat better represented in the Inventory this FY.

I've outlined some thoughts and concerns - I'll leave it to other people to outline the up sides.

gcvijay

08-12-2015, 10:31 PM

Given the number remaining and the likely availability of visa numbers next year, it seems extremely difficult for EB2-I to move beyond a COD somewhere in the second half of 2009 if that trend continues. Of course, it may not. For instance, porting cases seemed somewhat better represented in the Inventory this FY.

This is seriously scary. What wrong did we do to get a 2009 priority date and later :(. I just need a 10 yr any work Visa to US that will do I will just pass the GC mess.

4WatItsWorth

08-12-2015, 10:42 PM

Given the number remaining and the likely availability of visa numbers next year, it seems extremely difficult for EB2-I to move beyond a COD somewhere in the second half of 2009 if that trend continues. With a PD of Oct 2009, as much as I now feel that I shouldn't have asked and should have blissfully remained ignorant, thank you very much for taking the time to put your thoughts together and answer.

It is so sad that PD+7 years does not look long enough to get current now.

suninphx

08-13-2015, 12:47 AM

With a PD of Oct 2009, as much as I now feel that I shouldn't have asked and should have blissfully remained ignorant, thank you very much for taking the time to put your thoughts together and answer.

It is so sad that PD+7 years does not look long enough to get current now.

I agree ..extremely disappointing day for EB2I

lozolneo

08-13-2015, 06:58 AM

They did not specify a deadline. I thot that was weird and had posted on trackitt whether anyone has seen something similar. Especially as the notice also asked me to respond by the deadline which is not mentioned anywhere on either of the notices or gold sheets.

Thanks Neel- can you pls share your what you find out...i have a similar priority date as you and wondering if i should be expecting a RFE for medical and if yes, then how much time do they give to resubmit.

Spectator

08-13-2015, 07:29 AM

It wasn't my intention to cause unnecessary anguish to people. I'm sorry if I have done so. It was one of the reasons I was hesitant to make the post.

Please treat it as my speaking out loud some of the things I have been thinking about, rather than a considered analysis.

By now, the old timers should realize I tend to see the worst in a given situation, so use my comments in conjunction with your own to make a considered judgement of the prospects for next year.

I think the point I wanted to make was that we knew FY2015 was going to be difficult and that is how it was, but don't expect a return to 20k approvals in FY2016.

qesehmk

08-13-2015, 07:42 AM

but don't expect a return to 20k approvals in FY2016.
I agree Spec. That's the bottomline.

gcpursuit

08-13-2015, 08:06 AM

Spec,

Thank you for that post. It helps me in setting a realistic expectation. Having june 2009 PD and missing the 2012 boat, I am now relying on I-140 EAD. It hurts but its good to know the the worst case scenarios so that my hopes wont get crushed with VB movement ( or lack thereof) .

bvsamrat

08-13-2015, 10:19 AM

Is it the first time in last 8 years, where the COD for EB2-I did not move compared to the previous year?
Every FY it had been moving at least 6 months to 1 year?

Spec,

Thank you for that post. It helps me in setting a realistic expectation. Having june 2009 PD and missing the 2012 boat, I am now relying on I-140 EAD. It hurts but its good to know the the worst case scenarios so that my hopes wont get crushed with VB movement ( or lack thereof) .

Spectator

08-13-2015, 10:35 AM

Is it the first time in last 8 years, where the COD for EB2-I did not move compared to the previous year?
Every FY it had been moving at least 6 months to 1 year?bvsamrat,

That's true, but that movement has been possible because EB2-I has received large numbers of visas due to spillover.

That in turn was possible due to a series of beneficial factors: low EB5 usage in the early years, Kazarian's effect on EB1, beneficial changes in PERM processing times, large numbers of extra visas from FB, over allocation in FY2012 when EB2-WW had to be retrogressed etc.

Underlying those numbers, the situation wasn't as good as it appeared and this year none of those factors are present and EB2-WW has higher than normal demand.

NeelVohra

08-13-2015, 11:20 AM

Thanks Neel- can you pls share your what you find out...

I found thru Trackitt that RFE notices now have standardized to 84 days. Please see Standard RFE Timeframe Memo (http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/2013/I-601A_30-Day_RFE_PM.pdf). Even upon request, we may not get a RFE notice that specifies the deadline. Best is to confirm in an InfoPass or with your lawyer.

You can also review the discussion on Trackitt (http://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/1582484767/no-deadline-specified-in-rfe/page/last_page).

jimmys

08-13-2015, 12:26 PM

Hi Spec,
Thanks for your FY 16 insight.

Is it the first time in last 8 years, where the COD for EB2-I did not move compared to the previous year?
Every FY it had been moving at least 6 months to 1 year?

This year dates started moving much earlier than usually did. This year DoS/USCIS had great control over EB2-I supply/demand than previous years. Only around 2,500 pending prior to Oct 1,2008 based on Apr-June inventory and there are EB2-I approvals in Aug,too. It leaves great probability of dates moving again in 1st Q of FY 16.

gcvijay

08-13-2015, 12:40 PM

bvsamrat,

That's true, but that movement has been possible because EB2-I has received large numbers of visas due to spillover.

That in turn was possible due to a series of beneficial factors: low EB5 usage in the early years, Kazarian's effect on EB1, beneficial changes in PERM processing times, large numbers of extra visas from FB, over allocation in FY2012 when EB2-WW had to be retrogressed etc.

Underlying those numbers, the situation wasn't as good as it appeared and this year none of those factors are present and EB2-WW has higher than normal demand.

Interesting thread from Ron - Not to take the inventory numbers seriously

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/september-bulletin.19153/

Spectator

08-13-2015, 01:35 PM

Interesting thread from Ron - Not to take the inventory numbers seriously

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/september-bulletin.19153/gcvijay,

I agree with him to a point, but not to completely dismissing it as he does.

There has to be an understanding of the limitations of the Inventory data and what can be reliably inferred from it. I don't think people always do that.

We know there is a problem with double counting porting cases in both EB2 and EB3.

For Countries that are Current or near Current, the Inventory does not represent all I-485 submitted. The I-140 associated with it must also be approved.

That means that regular processed I-140 cases may not appear for some time and that the I-485 may be approved between Inventories - it may never appear in an Inventory at all.

That is particularly possible for categories such as EB2-NIW and EB1C where PP is not available.

For habitually retrogressed Countries, the data should be a better indicator. Of course, that does assume that USCIS are showing all the cases. You know what they say about people who assume.

It was very noticeable when EB3-ROW moved forward initially that many more cases were appearing.

Having said that, for retrogressed Countries, the numbers were in fairly good agreement with the Demand Data that DOS used to publish.

People tend not to consider that CP exists and may represent significant numbers for some Countries/Categories in addition to the AOS cases that the Inventory purports to show.

People tend to forget that EB3-EW also use up the EB3 allocation - albeit only 5k per year.

The change in numbers between Inventories only represents a net change - it's impossible to know visa use if you don't also know how many were added during the period.

It's better than nothing. I think we would all agree it's better to have the Inventory published than have no information at all. I certainly feel that way and miss those reports that are no longer published, such as USCIS Dashboard and the DOS Demand Data.

gcvijay

08-13-2015, 02:29 PM

gcvijay,

I agree with him to a point, but not to completely dismissing it as he does.

There has to be an understanding of the limitations of the Inventory data and what can be reliably inferred from it. I don't think people always do that.

We know there is a problem with double counting porting cases in both EB2 and EB3.

For Countries that are Current or near Current, the Inventory does not represent all I-485 submitted. The I-140 associated with it must also be approved.

That means that regular processed I-140 cases may not appear for some time and that the I-485 may be approved between Inventories - it may never appear in an Inventory at all.

That is particularly possible for categories such as EB2-NIW and EB1C where PP is not available.

For habitually retrogressed Countries, the data should be a better indicator. Of course, that does assume that USCIS are showing all the cases. You know what they say about people who assume.

It was very noticeable when EB3-ROW moved forward initially that many more cases were appearing.

Having said that, for retrogressed Countries, the numbers were in fairly good agreement with the Demand Data that DOS used to publish.

People tend not to consider that CP exists and may represent significant numbers for some Countries/Categories in addition to the AOS cases that the Inventory purports to show.

People tend to forget that EB3-EW also use up the EB3 allocation - albeit only 5k per year.

The change in numbers between Inventories only represents a net change - it's impossible to know visa use if you don't also know how many were added during the period.

It's better than nothing. I think we would all agree it's better to have the Inventory published than have no information at all. I certainly feel that way and miss those reports that are no longer published, such as USCIS Dashboard and the DOS Demand Data.

Thanks Spec !!! Another update from Fragomen website says that the date will be back to what it was in Oct or even surpass dates when FY 2016 kicks in. Ofcourse we need to take these with a pinch of salt and pepper.

http://mail.fragomen.com/newsresources/xprNewsDetailFrag.aspx?xpST=USAlerts&news=3242

jimmys

08-13-2015, 02:40 PM

gcvijay:

The dates has to move in Oct 15 VB and will most likely surpass Oct 1,2008 in Oct 15 or coming months. Apr-June inventory shows only about 2.5K pending cases for EB2-I. And, if you reduce the approvals that happened after 7/20/15, the EB2-I inventory will be further depleted. To make use of EB2-I's annual quota for FY 16 the dates has to be moved beyond Oct 1,2008.

Jagan01

08-13-2015, 02:48 PM

Interesting thread from Ron - Not to take the inventory numbers seriously

http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/september-bulletin.19153/ This is exactly what I said in my post yesterday. The approvals in Apr+May+Jun+July(20 days) for EB2ROW were too many and inventory only diminishing for EB2ROW only by 2.1 K is unrealistic.

I pointed it out yesterday and stick by it. The numbers are not accurate for EB2ROW in particular.

April2010

08-13-2015, 03:51 PM

I have received RFE notifications for me and my wife for our I485. My priority date is April 02 2010. I am expecting them to be Medical and EVL related RFE's.

geterdone

08-14-2015, 09:48 AM

I have received RFE notifications for me and my wife for our I485. My priority date is April 02 2010. I am expecting them to be Medical and EVL related RFE's.

Did you recently change job or file AC21? Just curious....

We did not see any mass RFEs. So that should have been a indicator that dates are not going to move forward. I think if the dates are to move forward we will start seeing RFEs.

EB2 = FUBAR

Also, why is EB2C at the same date as EB2 I? That makes me wonder how accurate the numbers are!

gcq

08-14-2015, 09:50 AM

Did you recently change job or file AC21? Just curious....

We did not see any mass RFEs. So that should have been a indicator that dates are not going to move forward. I think if the dates are to move forward we will start seeing RFEs.

EB2 = FUBAR

Also, why is EB2C at the same date as EB2 I? That makes me wonder how accurate the numbers are!

That is what CO always does during spillover season. So that visas are allocated strictly based on priority date regardless of country of birth. Spillover visas has no country cap !

April2010

08-14-2015, 12:27 PM

I did change my job 4 months ago but I doubt it is reg. AC21 as my wife also received RFE notification. I believe it is Medicals and EVL. I will share the details once I receive mail from USCIS.

gcpursuit

08-14-2015, 01:44 PM

Waiting for Spec and other gurus' take on this.

From Ron's forum : http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/general-discussion-2.18400/page-47#post-101349

Here are the notes from the most recent (August 13th) chat with Charlie Oppenheim:

QUESTION 1: Last month you were hopeful that EB-2 India/China would hold steady or possibly advance for September. However both categories have retrogressed significantly. What caused this to occur?

ANSWER: The September retrogression of EB-2 China and India can primarily be attributed to skyrocketing demand for EB-2 Worldwide, which has left fewer numbers available for India and China. Currently, the availability of visas for India and China is largely driven by Worldwide demand. Earlier this year, EB-2 Worldwide demand was around 2,400 per month and started creeping up in March. In June, demand peaked at 6,700, and with July usage totaling 4,400 it was necessary to take corrective action for EB-2 China and India to limit future number use.

Similarly, fewer EB-1 numbers are available to fall down to EB-2 China and India. During the second quarter of the fiscal year, 9,300 EB-1 numbers were used. That jumped to 13,500 EB-1 numbers in the third quarter.

In particular, overall EB-2 India usage is down significantly this year due to the fact that fewer unused numbers are available for this category. Last fiscal year, EB-2 India used approximately 23,000 numbers. This year, it is expected that EB-2 India will use approximately 7,500 numbers. This is approximately 9,700 fewer numbers than that which were used in FY 2013.

QUESTION 2: How likely is it that EB-2 India and China will advance significantly with the start of the fiscal year on October 1?

It is expected that the dates will advance in October as we enter the new fiscal year. EB-2 India is likely to advance to a date between February and April 2005.

QUESTION 3: Is it expected that all numbers in all categories will be exhausted by the end of the fiscal year?

ANSWER: Yes. All visa numbers in all categories will be exhausted. There has been some concern about EB-3 number use because there appeared to be a decrease in demand which caused the Worldwide cut-off date to advanced rapidly. There is sufficient EB-3 India applicants in the pending demand file to ensure that all "otherwise" unused numbers will be used this fiscal year.

QUESTION 4: The "Visa Modernization" proposal promises to refine the monthly allocation of visas, increasing the number of visas allocated during the first three quarters, and implementing new processes for allocation during the final quarter of the fiscal year. Can you please elaborate on this plan? Do you expect to implement the changes effective 10/1/15?

ANSWER: This is still a work in progress but members should be happy with what is ultimately rolled out. Some changes have already been implemented. As stated in the Visa Modernization proposal, members may see more aggressive cut-off date movements for some preference categories earlier in the year. Similar movement occurred earlier this year with regard to EB-2 India; advancement of that category started much earlier than in prior years to allow USCIS sufficient time to complete processing of the cases, many of which were EB-3 upgrades, earlier within the fiscal year. However, aggressive movement earlier in the year can have "negative" consequences during the final quarter when there are fewer numbers available. As a result it could be necessary to take corrective action if it becomes clear that there would be fewer numbers available from other categories.

In addition to accelerating cut-off date movements earlier in the fiscal year, other options are being explored. As plans are refined, the information will be made available to the public.