EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[rocketfast]

Do they apply the 100k SO immediately? What percentage will go to EB2 and EB3 I? If everything holds good, is a substantial movement deep into 2010 or 2011 possible?

You can plugin 100,000 to this post: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62399&viewfull=1#post62399

You will see that EB1, EB2 and EB3 will get 28,600 GCs extra.

* EB1ROW is current and has less demand (based on spillovers to EB1-I this year), so all the 28,600 will go to EB1-I. Generally there is 10,000 EB1-I demand a year, and since they are 2 years backlogged, you can assume that they will take up 20,000 of it and give remaining 8600 to EB2.

* EB2ROW is current. But, it likely has more demand than the yearly available numbers by around 8600. So, you can guess-estimate that around 28,600 will come to EB2-I.

* EB3ROW is not current. Their 1 year worth of extra demand is anybody's guess. But we also know that EB3-I demand is extremely thin as almost everyone has moved on to EB2-I.

On the demand side, we know that in year 2010, 22,000 PERMs were approved for EB-I. So, worst case, there is a demand of 44,000.

Now, it is really up to you on how you want to adjust these numbers for optimistic/pessimistic scenarios. I for one, do believe that if USCIS has the intention to use up all the numbers, dates will need to move to early 2011 in both EB2-I and EB3-I and they will have to do this in the Oct-Dec quarter of this year.

[usvisas]

* But we also know that EB3-I demand is extremely thin as almost everyone has moved on to EB2-I.



Makes sense to me, except this part above.

I do believe that porter numbers (EB2I to EB3I) after around mid-2009 should be far too less relatively. And those that ported beyond mid-2009, would actually come back to their EB3 by interfiling. Thus using EB3I numbers. I dont expect EB3I numbers to be as thin as most have been thinking.

Just my 2 cents..

[H1b2006]

so all of you pray for next 2 weeks dates will move in Oct bulletin

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

You can plugin 100,000 to this post: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62399&viewfull=1#post62399

... dates will need to move to early 2011 in both EB2-I and EB3-I and they will have to do this in the Oct-Dec quarter of this year.

Filing Dates or Final Action? With our luck, they will only move the FD and keep it there for the foreseeable future and not let anyone use it.

[android09]

You can plugin 100,000 to this post: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62399&viewfull=1#post62399

You will see that EB1, EB2 and EB3 will get 28,600 GCs extra.

* EB1ROW is current and has less demand (based on spillovers to EB1-I this year), so all the 28,600 will go to EB1-I. Generally there is 10,000 EB1-I demand a year, and since they are 2 years backlogged, you can assume that they will take up 20,000 of it and give remaining 8600 to EB2.

* EB2ROW is current. But, it likely has more demand than the yearly available numbers by around 8600. So, you can guess-estimate that around 28,600 will come to EB2-I.

* EB3ROW is not current. Their 1 year worth of extra demand is anybody's guess. But we also know that EB3-I demand is extremely thin as almost everyone has moved on to EB2-I.

On the demand side, we know that in year 2010, 22,000 PERMs were approved for EB-I. So, worst case, there is a demand of 44,000.

Now, it is really up to you on how you want to adjust these numbers for optimistic/pessimistic scenarios. I for one, do believe that if USCIS has the intention to use up all the numbers, dates will need to move to early 2011 in both EB2-I and EB3-I and they will have to do this in the Oct-Dec quarter of this year.

Great post. Thanks for the explanation. I wonder what "early" 2011 means from your perspective? Jan 1, 2011 or March 30,2011 or what? Personally, I feel CO will not make any drastic moves for EB2 and EB3 but rather make small but significant changes(2-4 months each bulletin) and raise it through the year and then come August/Sept 2021, waste a boatload of visas.

[vckomara]

2-4 months sounds like massive movement compared to what we have been used to. I am just two months away (Sept 2, 2009). Hope to finally clear it this year and get GC and move on from the current company and become an entrepreneur.

[AceMan]

You can plugin 100,000 to this post: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62399&viewfull=1#post62399

You will see that EB1, EB2 and EB3 will get 28,600 GCs extra.

* EB1ROW is current and has less demand (based on spillovers to EB1-I this year), so all the 28,600 will go to EB1-I. Generally there is 10,000 EB1-I demand a year, and since they are 2 years backlogged, you can assume that they will take up 20,000 of it and give remaining 8600 to EB2.

* EB2ROW is current. But, it likely has more demand than the yearly available numbers by around 8600. So, you can guess-estimate that around 28,600 will come to EB2-I.

* EB3ROW is not current. Their 1 year worth of extra demand is anybody's guess. But we also know that EB3-I demand is extremely thin as almost everyone has moved on to EB2-I.

On the demand side, we know that in year 2010, 22,000 PERMs were approved for EB-I. So, worst case, there is a demand of 44,000.

Now, it is really up to you on how you want to adjust these numbers for optimistic/pessimistic scenarios. I for one, do believe that if USCIS has the intention to use up all the numbers, dates will need to move to early 2011 in both EB2-I and EB3-I and they will have to do this in the Oct-Dec quarter of this year.

My new theory after a string of successful failed theories over the last 5 years.

For FY21, as a ball park, for 2010 PD's, you can put about 1500-2000 total users GC demand per month for EB2/3 combined. This should result in demand of about 24,000 for 2010 PD's alone. 2009 PD's is expected to consume another 10,000-11,000.

So if EB2/3 I can tap in minimum 35,000 visas for FY 2021 the numbers should be good to clear FY 2010 for both.

[android09]

My new theory after a string of successful failed theories over the last 5 years.

For FY21, as a ball park, for 2010 PD's, you can put about 1500-2000 total users GC demand per month for EB2/3 combined. This should result in demand of about 24,000 for 2010 PD's alone. 2009 PD's is expected to consume another 10,000-11,000.

So if EB2/3 I can tap in minimum 35,000 visas for FY 2021 the numbers should be good to clear FY 2010 for both.

Does this factor in Consular processing cases as well or are these only AOS?

[EB2IndSep09]

My new theory after a string of successful failed theories over the last 5 years.

For FY21, as a ball park, for 2010 PD's, you can put about 1500-2000 total users GC demand per month for EB2/3 combined. This should result in demand of about 24,000 for 2010 PD's alone. 2009 PD's is expected to consume another 10,000-11,000.

So if EB2/3 I can tap in minimum 35,000 visas for FY 2021 the numbers should be good to clear FY 2010 for both.

Has there been a guesstimate on the numbers who left the country during economic crisis but continued their GC processing into 2010? Sorry if Spec or other Gurus calculated that number already and I missed to read.
These are people who came back and are yet to file AOS, not waiting for CP. This number might be insignificant but every number adds up and becomes a reason for CO not to move dates as we all expect him to.

[longwaitgigu]

Has there been a guesstimate on the numbers who left the country during economic crisis but continued their GC processing into 2010? Sorry if Spec or other Gurus calculated that number already and I missed to read.
These are people who came back and are yet to file AOS, not waiting for CP. This number might be insignificant but every number adds up and becomes a reason for CO not to move dates as we all expect him to.
IMO the backlog for eb2 and eb3 2010 will clear only if CP stops till atleast june 2021(EO gets extended and DT wins). Again we know numbers can be manipulated, intent of administration and other variables too

[AceMan]

Does this factor in Consular processing cases as well or are these only AOS?

I don’t think CP will have a big demand for 2021. India is still a covid hotspot and the consulates opening up for Jan 2021 is far fetched for now. Most probably only after April 2021. Even then I don’t foresee a huge line waiting to rush into America. The number will be insignificant relative to the spill over we are expecting.

When we hav winky 3000 visas available 1000 CP cases is significant. However if we have 30,000 visas available, even 2000 cp’s also means around 5% to have an impact in the forward movement.

I am visualizing a 3-4 months movement for the first quarter of 2021 for both 2 and 3.

[vedu]

In the absence of any legislation to fix this mess, what is "BAD" is actually "GOOD", and what is "GOOD" is actually "BAD" for applicants who are in the country and waiting in line for a decade. But people don't seem to get it!:D

[jimmys]

I don’t think CP will have a big demand for 2021. India is still a covid hotspot and the consulates opening up for Jan 2021 is far fetched for now. Most probably only after April 2021. Even then I don’t foresee a huge line waiting to rush into America. The number will be insignificant relative to the spill over we are expecting.

When we hav winky 3000 visas available 1000 CP cases is significant. However if we have 30,000 visas available, even 2000 cp’s also means around 5% to have an impact in the forward movement.

I am visualizing a 3-4 months movement for the first quarter of 2021 for both 2 and 3.


There are more than a few retrogressed categories in EB-3. I don't think EB-3 India can avail all the available SO.

[idliman]

In the absence of any legislation to fix this mess, what is "BAD" is actually "GOOD", and what is "GOOD" is actually "BAD" for applicants who are in the country and waiting in line for a decade. But people don't seem to get it!:D
I can cite a few examples.
When the "DF" concept was introduced, everyone (including me) praised BO admin. But this GOOD actually was BAD for backlogged folks.
COVID effectively stopped the functioning of consulates and reduced FB immigration. This BAD is GOOD for EB.
Everyone rejoiced that there is great SO because of above. However this GOOD is offset by trump admin's BAD, which allows the wastage of Visas.


Everything is a wash at the end of the day. Do you have anything else in mind?

[vedu]

Everyone rejoiced that there is great SO because of above. However this GOOD is offset by trump admin's BAD, which allows the wastage of Visas.
[/LIST]

When COVID hit, we were already 6 months into the current year, so the demand wasn't gonna disappear suddenly considering that there are always enough application under processing. I am willing to wait for a couple of more visa bulletins to finally see the effect! But I agree...we have been disappointed so many times in the past, so everything seems a wash at the end of the day. This time may be different, but let's not jinx it.

[android09]

I can cite a few examples.
When the "DF" concept was introduced, everyone (including me) praised BO admin. But this GOOD actually was BAD for backlogged folks.
COVID effectively stopped the functioning of consulates and reduced FB immigration. This BAD is GOOD for EB.
Everyone rejoiced that there is great SO because of above. However this GOOD is offset by trump admin's BAD, which allows the wastage of Visas.


Everything is a wash at the end of the day. Do you have anything else in mind?

Whether or not one gets a green card, the process surely ensures everyone becomes a philosopher. This was really deep @idliman :)

[H1b2006]

even EAD/Advanced Parole helps. i want to do some side hustles after getting EAD/AP, right now h1b is too restrictive.

[AceMan]

There are more than a few retrogressed categories in EB-3. I don't think EB-3 India can avail all the available SO.

I would think EB3-ROW would either be current or start with April 20, in the October bulletin. The regular numbers for 2021 by itself would be good to clear EB3-ROW including Philippines. For all practical purpose I am counting EB2 and 3 India as single entity and 30,000 spillover is for both in my previous calculation.

Eb1 India applicants beyond March 2018 is literally less than half of what has applied before. EB1-ROW current as well. Those will give a head start to EB1 India and China for dates around Mid 2019 in OCt bulletin

[longwaitgigu]

The lawyers have filed lawsuit challenging the EO both april 22 and june 22, diversity lottery
It will be disappointing for AOS
if lawyers win - CP will start, FB will play a role
I hope lawsuit is blocked and EO continues

[vedu]

The lawyers have filed lawsuit challenging the EO both april 22 and june 22, diversity lottery
It will be disappointing for AOS
if lawyers win - CP will start, FB will play a role
I hope lawsuit is blocked and EO continues

This "GOOD" is definitely "BAD".

[NJMavarick]

The lawyers have filed lawsuit challenging the EO both april 22 and june 22, diversity lottery
It will be disappointing for AOS
if lawyers win - CP will start, FB will play a role
I hope lawsuit is blocked and EO continues

Its not going to be possible to consume 100K+ visas in a month even if the Consulates were to open...SO is inevitable but can the visas be wasted? Absolutely...~120K total visas will be added to EB if all goes well. I estimate ~70K visas (incl Spillover) for EB2/3I for next year.

[vedu]

Its not going to be possible to consume 100K+ visas in a month even if the Consulates were to open...SO is inevitable but can the visas be wasted? Absolutely...~120K total visas will be added to EB if all goes well. I estimate ~70K visas (incl Spillover) for EB2/3I for next year.

What you are saying is TRUE and will help people with PDs in 2009, 2010, and maybe even 2011. But people with PDs in 2012 and after, every single thing matters. Before the last recession, waiting time was 5-6 years. Some people got lucky in last recession, and others got stuck in for 10 years. Once again, some people will now get lucky and get out this time, and the rest of them will get stuck...who knows...next it will be 15 years waiting period!

[NJMavarick]

What you are saying is TRUE and will help people with PDs in 2009, 2010, and maybe even 2011. But people with PDs in 2012 and after, every single thing matters. Before the last recession, waiting time was 5-6 years. Some people got lucky in last recession, and others got stuck in for 10 years. Once again, some people will now get lucky and get out this time, and the rest of them will get stuck...who knows...next it will be 15 years waiting period!

Hopefully, JB is able to bring about some reform. Given the amount of visas available for next year, FAD can easily each Q3/4 2011. Visas have been wasted this year and they will be next year as well.

FAD will only move by a few months or maybe less in October Bulletin based on the bare minimum allocation of 5K for both EB2 / EB3. I think DOS needs to be inform USCIS in writing about the SO number before the dates can be moved IMO. I would think Nov / December bulletin is what we need to watch out for.

This is considering USCIS funding bill is passed in September alongwith the Stimulus bill otherwise...we are in for disappointment...

[longwaitgigu]

The spillover will be available until and unless law passes through Congress before September 30- which is least possibility
That's not my concern
Its CP processing which will bring halt to eb3I and again CO will move conservatively and AOS will be stuck for eb3 specifically
Now the argument will be consulates won't open soon for ROW and not able to consume all numbers then they r wasted
So per IMO EO needs to stay put till atleast end of this year for people in eb2 and eb3 end of 2010 to atleast get an ead

[vedu]

Hopefully, JB is able to bring about some reform. Given the amount of visas available for next year, FAD can easily each Q3/4 2011. Visas have been wasted this year and they will be next year as well.

FAD will only move by a few months or maybe less in October Bulletin based on the bare minimum allocation of 5K for both EB2 / EB3. I think DOS needs to be inform USCIS in writing about the SO number before the dates can be moved IMO. I would think Nov / December bulletin is what we need to watch out for.

This is considering USCIS funding bill is passed in September alongwith the Stimulus bill otherwise...we are in for disappointment...

Yes, some visas will be wasted due to sheer laziness of a government agency. This is unfortunately how all government agencies operate. I got to experience that first hand when I visited local DMV recently. That is beyond our control, but what we can do is to focus on what we can control. For example, everybody should keep their papers ready and respond to their RFEs ASAP without wasting any time. That will not only help their case, but will also help people waiting after them.

Regarding USCIS furlough, that is a political spectacle. So, don't pay attention to all that noise. In the worst case scenario, there will be a furlough of 8-10 days, and then the congress will be FORCED to act. USCIS is too important of an agency to be closed for months. That is never going to happen.

Regarding new reforms, I have closely watched all prior reform attempts (one during President Bush and one during President Obama), and also S.386, and stupidly believed after listening to those passionate speeches by the senators on both sides, that it was going to happen back then. The only thing I can say now is, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!" So, take it now what you get and hopefully we can make the most of it.

[NJMavarick]

The spillover will be available until and unless law passes through Congress before September 30- which is least possibility
That's not my concern
Its CP processing which will bring halt to eb3I and again CO will move conservatively and AOS will be stuck for eb3 specifically
Now the argument will be consulates won't open soon for ROW and not able to consume all numbers then they r wasted
So per IMO EO needs to stay put till atleast end of this year for people in eb2 and eb3 end of 2010 to atleast get an ead

CP for EB3I would be negligible given the SO numbers. All things considered, ROW has the potential to be current across all 3 categories and EB3I will also be able to get a sizable number of visas from the SO. There is no way EB3ROW would consume 32K extra visas. I think 20K of that would go to EB3I

[NJMavarick]

Yes, some visas will be wasted due sheer laziness of a government agency. This is unfortunately how all government agencies operate. I got to experience that first hand when I visited local DMV recently. That is beyond our control, but what we can do is to focus on what we can control. For example, everybody should keep their papers ready and respond to their RFEs ASAP without wasting any time. That will not only help their case, but will also help people waiting after them.

Regarding USCIS furlough, that is a political spectacle. So, don't pay attention to all that noise. In the worst case scenario, there will be a furlough of 8-10 days, and then the congress will be FORCED to act. USCIS is too important of an agency to be closed for months. That is never going to happen.

Regarding new reforms, I have closely watched all prior reform attempts (one during President Bush and one during President Obama), and also S.386, and stupidly believed after listening to those passionate speeches by the senators on both sides, that it was going to happen back then. The only thing I can say now is, "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!" So, take it now what you get and hopefully we can make the most of it.

Well, in that case "do not count your chickens before they hatch" can also hold true for all of us :) Here we are, talking about big SO numbers. For all we know, the dates just move a few months for the whole of next fiscal year....anything is possible and government cannot be held accountable for under-utilization of visas. Regardless of who wins the Presidency, this is another possibility....

[vedu]

Well, in that case "do not count your chickens before they hatch" can also hold true for all of us :) Here we are, talking about big SO numbers. For all we know, the dates just move a few months for the whole of next fiscal year....anything is possible and government cannot be held accountable for under-utilization of visas. Regardless of who wins the Presidency, this is another possibility....

Yes, I completely agree. That's why I mentioned in one of my previous posts about not jinxing it. Only seeing is believing. So, "do not count your chickens before they hatch" is very true. Also, historically, USCIS always wasted visas whether DT or no DT.

[idliman]

Yes, I completely agree. That's why I mentioned in one of my previous posts about not jinxing it. Only seeing is believing. So, "do not count your chickens before they hatch" is very true. Also, historically, USCIS always wasted visas whether DT or no DT.
I can see that everyone that missed the 2012 bus has "more wisdom" due to the "life lessons" that has been forced on them. We all know of 2 or 3 people who got in on 2012 and now they are Citizens.

Not jinxing anything, I think we all need to wait for the next Check-in with CO. The admin and CO control the show. I honestly think no one can predict anything (with any cone of probability). Try to stay grounded to avoid any disappointment.

The one positive thing that I am seeing is a lot of EB3I approvals and EB2I RFEs in trackitt in this week. I don't care if it is EB2I or EB3I or ROW as long as they clear most of the people that are current. Bottom line is the "Q" in-front of you needs to clear somehow.

[longwaitgigu]

CP for EB3I would be negligible given the SO numbers. All things considered, ROW has the potential to be current across all 3 categories and EB3I will also be able to get a sizable number of visas from the SO. There is no way EB3ROW would consume 32K extra visas. I think 20K of that would go to EB3I
CP is done by ROW too
So again extra CP numbers won't spillover to EB3 I

[android09]

Hopefully, JB is able to bring about some reform. Given the amount of visas available for next year, FAD can easily each Q3/4 2011. Visas have been wasted this year and they will be next year as well.

FAD will only move by a few months or maybe less in October Bulletin based on the bare minimum allocation of 5K for both EB2 / EB3. I think DOS needs to be inform USCIS in writing about the SO number before the dates can be moved IMO. I would think Nov / December bulletin is what we need to watch out for.

This is considering USCIS funding bill is passed in September alongwith the Stimulus bill otherwise...we are in for disappointment...

I think Q3/Q4 2011 is a bit too optimistic. If anything, maybe Jan or Feb 2011. That too is very doubtful. CO has been on burned before by moving dates aggressively and then having to retrogress things. From what he's said before, he will allocate spillover cautiously and over many months and will continue to monitor ROW demand. I fully expect him to say ROW demand has surged and therefore EB2 and EB3 cannot be given more than their 7% of the spill over.

[NJMavarick]

I think Q3/Q4 2011 is a bit too optimistic. If anything, maybe Jan or Feb 2011. That too is very doubtful. CO has been on burned before by moving dates aggressively and then having to retrogress things. From what he's said before, he will allocate spillover cautiously and over many months and will continue to monitor ROW demand. I fully expect him to say ROW demand has surged and therefore EB2 and EB3 cannot be given more than their 7% of the spill over.

I am in no way suggesting that the dates will reach Q3/4 2011. I am saying in an ideal world where the SO is correctly utilized then that is a possibility!

2 years movement is not unreasonable given the demand and the SO number.

[NJMavarick]

CP is done by ROW too
So again extra CP numbers won't spillover to EB3 I

Sure. You need to understand that EB3 is also going to get ~32-34K visas which is 28.6% of the 100-120K SO number.

With these many visas, EB3ROW will get current so CP or no CP..it does not matter. There is no WAY EB3ROW will utilize so many visas and there will definitely be horizontal SO to EB3I.

Will CO make it current or apply SO? Look EB2/3I in total should get in excess of 70K visas combined. There will be vertical SO from EB1I as well...as EB1ROW is current and EB1 is not having so much demand...

Again, this is in an ideal world...USCIS can do what they feel like with zero accountability...

[vsivarama]

I see two likely scenarios going forward. i) CP is opened up and USCIS utilizes close to the entire spillover available in the next FY or ii) CP remains closed and bulk (if not all) of the spillover visa numbers are wasted. I do NOT see a scenario where CP is closed and USCIS still somehow utilizes the entire spillover as some seem to be indicating. So pick your poison. I am all in for "CP Opening up and entire spillover being utilized"

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I am just glad I quit drinking about 15 years back.

[NJMavarick]

I see two likely scenarios going forward. i) CP is opened up and USCIS utilizes close to the entire spillover available in the next FY or ii) CP remains closed and bulk (if not all) of the spillover visa numbers are wasted. I do NOT see a scenario where CP is closed and USCIS still somehow utilizes the entire spillover as some seem to be indicating. So pick your poison. I am all in for "CP Opening up and entire spillover being utilized"

For " i" - How? Unless you are being satirical of USCIS, I fail to understand that if CP is opened up then how can the entire SO be utilized by EB3ROW? EB1 and EB2ROW is current.

SO can be wasted regardless of CP being open or closed. On October 1st the SO will be available to EB unless Congress passes a law to stop that.

[NJMavarick]

I am just glad I quit drinking about 15 years back.

and I started 15 years back :)

[vedu]

This year CP was closed due to COVID, and hence we can at least dream of getting spill across of 100,000 from FB to EB. Once CP is open, FB will start using the numbers next year (starting from October) and subsequently there will be no or substantially less spill-across in 2022 as compared to what we are expecting in 2021....right? Am I missing something here? And if this is true, then people with PDs in 2012 and onward will suffer. If USCIS uses even 50% of the next year's spill across, 2010 folks will be in the clear. It is for 2012 and to some extent, 2011 folks to pick the poison of CP open OR not open. Glad I am not one of them.

[NJMavarick]

This year CP was closed due to COVID, and hence we can at least dream of getting spill across of 100,000 from FB to EB. Once CP is open, FB will start using the numbers next year (starting from October) and subsequently there will be no or substantially less spill-across in 2022 as compared to what we are expecting in 2021....right? Am I missing something here? And if this is true, then people with PDs in 2012 and onward will suffer. If USCIS uses even 50% of the next year's spill across, 2010 folks will be in the clear. It is for 2012 and to some extent, 2011 folks to pick the poison of CP open OR not open. Glad I am not one of them.

Yes. I do not see much SO for FY2022 if JB wins but if T wins then expect SO. How much? Its too early to gauge...

The only good thing is that Congress is now much more aware of the discriminatory country cap and the effect it has on the backlogged folks. I would think that in the next 4 years, reform of some kind can happen.

[longwaitgigu]

Nothing is in our control
IMO if lawsuit is won- CP starts ( I am not sure lawsuit is filed for EB CP people also), but consulate may not be open soon enough so sure to get some SO. When CP starts CO has one more reason ( on top of slow processing and uscis reduced capacity)about the unknown numbers ( may be with PD from 2007, 2008, 2009) used by CP specifically EB3 INDIA and will not move dates drastically.
So in ideal scenario- if lawsuit is not won and CP closes for rest of year ( more ideal scenario IMO if DT wins and EO extends and CP closes for june 2021, then predictions for 2010 and mid 2011 can come true for dream green card)
Let's see what happens

[vsivarama]

For " i" - How? Unless you are being satirical of USCIS, I fail to understand that if CP is opened up then how can the entire SO be utilized by EB3ROW? EB1 and EB2ROW is current.

SO can be wasted regardless of CP being open or closed. On October 1st the SO will be available to EB unless Congress passes a law to stop that.

I was making a statement with political implications in mind. CP being open means a shift of power in the white house. If that is the case, there maybe some pressure on USCIS to uphold the laws. If there is no change of guard then you can kiss CP and SO goodbye. I am not suggesting that opening up of CP will eat into SO for EBI. My evidence - We had SO from FB last year come to EB which was promptly wasted. I do not foresee a scenario where we get SO from FB and it being properly allocated to EB folks if the current admin persists.

[vedu]

I was making a statement with political implications in mind. CP being open means a shift of power in the white house. If that is the case, there maybe some pressure on USCIS to uphold the laws. If there is no change of guard then you can kiss CP and SO goodbye. I am not suggesting that opening up of CP will eat into SO for EBI. My evidence - We had SO from FB last year come to EB which was promptly wasted. I do not foresee a scenario where we get SO from FB and it being properly allocated to EB folks if the current admin persists.

Did you notice on Trackitt? As idliman mentioned, EB3I approvals and EB2I RFEs are raining. Also, we only had COVID for half of the year, and already since the beginning of the year, EB1I dates jumped by 15.5 months, EB3I dates jumped by 9 months, and EB2I moved through two of the highest demand months in 2009. If there was a malevolent intent, they would have never let that happen. Yes, we do need to discount some visas for their general laziness. Wait for a couple of months, and your remaining doubts will be answered provided that nobody tries to divert SO back to FB.

[vsivarama]

@vedu, I myself would be very happy if I am proven wrong. I don't doubt that the regular 140K will be used up, it's the SO part that I am worried about because they will give some excuse to not honor it. Already you can see breitbart articles terming the SO as a giveaway/handout.

[vedu]

@vedu, I myself would be very happy if I am proven wrong. I don't doubt that the regular 140K will be used up, it's the SO part that I am worried about because they will give some excuse to not honor it. Already you can see breitbart articles terming the SO as a giveaway/handout.

Yes, I understand the fear, but the very fact that the news network like breitbart has started crying foul means they got the inkling that DOS is shifting 100,000 visas to EB. It is happening.

[qesehmk]

@vedu, I myself would be very happy if I am proven wrong. I don't doubt that the regular 140K will be used up, it's the SO part that I am worried about because they will give some excuse to not honor it. Already you can see breitbart articles terming the SO as a giveaway/handout.
Rest assured law here is quite clear. The limit next year will include ALL the unused FB visas from 2020. If the number is 100K then limit next year will be 240K. No question about that.

[Sebiswaiting]

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/Count_of_Approved_I-140_I-360_and_I-526_Petitions_as_of_April_20_2018_with_a_Priority_ Date_On_or_After_May_2018.PDF

This report was created in April 2018. As per report from USCIS, as of April 2018, below were pending i140 numbers for India :
EB1i - ~35k
EB2i - ~216k
EB3i - ~55k
Since then, most of these EB1 are probably cleared as the date had moved to 2018 March. With higher scrutiny, I believe EB1 application is lower after 2018.

For EB2 , average of 25k applications per year (2009 Jan to 2018 april).
For EB3 , average of say 6 k per year.
These average numbers are flawed, but considered for simplicity.

These numbers are applicants only, so actual count will be double.

Can we use these pending numbers as pessimistic base for calculations or am I missing something?

Pessimistic base because, I don't know if an applicant is counted once or twice if s/he has more than 1 i140. Or cases where husband and wife both has pending i140 etc

Based on these numbers and if spillover is really in 100-120k , we can see more than a year movement in eb2 and couple years in eb3. And then the downgrade from eb3 to eb2 will change things. Also distribution of pending cases in all these years can change things.

Question again for the grandmasters/experts - Can we use these numbers for some analysis with your sea of knowledge?
Are you aware of any tracking done anywhere on downgrade ?

We came in 2010's and our priority dates are in 2014 and 2015..And so far never saw any light at end of the tunnel. So , hoping for significant spillover and analysis in search of some light!!

[eb2may2010]

Came here in 2003.. filed first labor in 2008.. company got shutdown in the recession..so had to do a new labor filing in 2010.. it's been nonstop waiting..nowadays I wake up and check immigration news everyday ..checking for visa bulletins and Check-ins with CO.. hope the spillover offers some relief because this is getting very tiring

[rocketfast]

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/Count_of_Approved_I-140_I-360_and_I-526_Petitions_as_of_April_20_2018_with_a_Priority_ Date_On_or_After_May_2018.PDF

This report was created in April 2018. As per report from USCIS, as of April 2018, below were pending i140 numbers for India :
EB1i - ~35k
EB2i - ~216k
EB3i - ~55k
Since then, most of these EB1 are probably cleared as the date had moved to 2018 March. With higher scrutiny, I believe EB1 application is lower after 2018.

For EB2 , average of 25k applications per year (2009 Jan to 2018 april).
For EB3 , average of say 6 k per year.
These average numbers are flawed, but considered for simplicity.

These numbers are applicants only, so actual count will be double.

Can we use these pending numbers as pessimistic base for calculations or am I missing something?

Pessimistic base because, I don't know if an applicant is counted once or twice if s/he has more than 1 i140. Or cases where husband and wife both has pending i140 etc

Based on these numbers and if spillover is really in 100-120k , we can see more than a year movement in eb2 and couple years in eb3. And then the downgrade from eb3 to eb2 will change things. Also distribution of pending cases in all these years can change things.

Question again for the grandmasters/experts - Can we use these numbers for some analysis with your sea of knowledge?
Are you aware of any tracking done anywhere on downgrade ?

We came in 2010's and our priority dates are in 2014 and 2015..And so far never saw any light at end of the tunnel. So , hoping for significant spillover and analysis in search of some light!!

IMO, number of PERMs per year will give you better per year data than averaging out all number of approved I-140s. I don't remember, in which post Spec had summarized it, but here are the numbers:

EB3+Eb2 PERM


India --- Certified
CY2007 --- 23,098
CY2008 --- 23,746
CY2009 --- 16,672
CY2010 --- 22,361
CY2011 --- 30,024
CY2012 --- 37,260
CY2013 --- 36,159
CY2014 --- 41,336
CY2015 --- 45,535
CY2016 --- 49,028

You can read back a few pages for actual rough predictions. Generally, it makes sense to assume that EB2 and EB3 are the same queue. As and when EB3 moves > 6 months ahead, people are going to downport. We cannot guess on duplicates or abandoned applications (that is returned to India for good) with any known data that we have already come across.

[Sebiswaiting]

Thank you. This is helpful.

[NJMavarick]

@vedu, I myself would be very happy if I am proven wrong. I don't doubt that the regular 140K will be used up, it's the SO part that I am worried about because they will give some excuse to not honor it. Already you can see breitbart articles terming the SO as a giveaway/handout.

Your fears are valid! I too do not expect 100% utilization of the EB visas allocated. I would bet that 60% of the SO can still be used which is 72K visas (based in 120K SO ). This can still move the dates considerably.

It all depends upon CO and knowing his conservative approach, the dates will definitely move but not as aggressive as we would like.

[idliman]

Yes, I understand the fear, but the very fact that the news network like breitbart has started crying foul means they got the inkling that DOS is shifting 100,000 visas to EB. It is happening.
DOS (Charlie Oppenheim) in June2020 (https://wolfsdorf.com/blog/2020/06/18/approximately-60000-additional-employment-visas-available-for-fiscal-year-2021-starting-october-1-2020/) already had announced that “FY 2021 Employment limit [could be] at least 200,000 [as opposed to the regular 140,000].” This number has now increased to 220K+. So everyone knows that it is happening. I don't know what more needs to happen officially.

The concern was will it be applied in October 2020 VB or November 2020 VB. I think, it should happen in Oct VB itself. CO will probably calculate the regular quota for EB2I/EB3I (should be around 5K) and apply. If he does only quarterly application, then EB2I FA will move about a month or so. For every month of movement in EB2I FA, EB3I FA should move at least 3 months (unless CO is anticipating EB3 to EB2 down-porting). As far as DF is concerned, EB2I may move to December 2009 (to cover 5K regular quota). EB3I DF should move 10 months (500*10 months = 5K) from Oct 2009 (CURRENT date) to July 2010. This is my crude assessment. With DT admin still ruling, I don't think they will do any "Hail Mary" movements either for DF or FA this year.

Lets keep looking for the Check-in. That would make things clear.

[vedu]

DOS (Charlie Oppenheim) in June2020 (https://wolfsdorf.com/blog/2020/06/18/approximately-60000-additional-employment-visas-available-for-fiscal-year-2021-starting-october-1-2020/) already had announced that “FY 2021 Employment limit [could be] at least 200,000 [as opposed to the regular 140,000].” This number has now increased to 220K+. So everyone knows that it is happening. I don't know what more needs to happen officially.

The concern was will it be applied in October 2020 VB or November 2020 VB. I think, it should happen in Oct VB itself. CO will probably calculate the regular quota for EB2I/EB3I (should be around 5K) and apply. If he does only quarterly application, then EB2I FA will move about a month or so. For every month of movement in EB2I FA, EB3I FA should move at least 3 months (unless CO is anticipating EB3 to EB2 down-porting). As far as DF is concerned, EB2I may move to December 2009 (to cover 5K regular quota). EB3I DF should move 10 months (500*10 months = 5K) from Oct 2009 (CURRENT date) to July 2010. This is my crude assessment. With DT admin still ruling, I don't think they will do any "Hail Mary" movements either for DF or FA this year.

Lets keep looking for the Check-in. That would make things clear.

Your assessment looks very reasonable to me and hope it comes true! It was so unfortunate that our lives were frozen for a decade while the rest of the world kept moving forward without any care for us. In many ways, our situation is like Ellis Red in "The Shawshank Redemption" who finally gets out of the jail after serving a lifetime, and finds his friend's letter that says, "Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things, and no good thing ever dies."

[longwaitgigu]

DOS (Charlie Oppenheim) in June2020 (https://wolfsdorf.com/blog/2020/06/18/approximately-60000-additional-employment-visas-available-for-fiscal-year-2021-starting-october-1-2020/) already had announced that “FY 2021 Employment limit [could be] at least 200,000 [as opposed to the regular 140,000].” This number has now increased to 220K+. So everyone knows that it is happening. I don't know what more needs to happen officially.

The concern was will it be applied in October 2020 VB or November 2020 VB. I think, it should happen in Oct VB itself. CO will probably calculate the regular quota for EB2I/EB3I (should be around 5K) and apply. If he does only quarterly application, then EB2I FA will move about a month or so. For every month of movement in EB2I FA, EB3I FA should move at least 3 months (unless CO is anticipating EB3 to EB2 down-porting). As far as DF is concerned, EB2I may move to December 2009 (to cover 5K regular quota). EB3I DF should move 10 months (500*10 months = 5K) from Oct 2009 (CURRENT date) to July 2010. This is my crude assessment. With DT admin still ruling, I don't think they will do any "Hail Mary" movements either for DF or FA this year.

Lets keep looking for the Check-in. That would make things clear.

Your predictions at first gives me nervousness as with the amount of spillover EB( spec in other post CP- for this year October to July- 92,797, so there is possibility of getting more than 120k spillover) is getting I expect DF to reach 2010 end for eb3 atleast (DF had reached April 2010 for eb3) and for eb2 ( DF had reached may 2010) so I expect that too reaching atleast july 2010.
But then thinking about it makes sense CO will be conservative and who knows how much politically is going on. It puts us to ground not expect gc soon.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Your predictions at first gives me nervousness as with the amount of spillover EB( spec in other post CP- for this year October to July- 92,797, so there is possibility of getting more than 120k spillover) is getting I expect DF to reach 2010 end for eb3 atleast (DF had reached April 2010 for eb3) and for eb2 ( DF had reached may 2010) so I expect that too reaching atleast july 2010.
But then thinking about it makes sense CO will be conservative and who knows how much politically is going on. It puts us to ground not expect gc soon.

It's probably going to be the 18th before they release the Oct bulletin.

What are the board predictions on VB dates for Dec and Jan depending on who wins in Nov?

[EB2IndSep09]

It's probably going to be the 18th before they release the Oct bulletin.

What are the board predictions on VB dates for Dec and Jan depending on who wins in Nov?

Oct and Nov are going to be crucial bulletins for any drastic movement of dates.
Irrespective of who wins the agencies are going to lookup for a direction from the then administration and so my take is we will see a regular movement nothing dramatically going to change as the administration has lot of other things to worry about and immigration comes to the bottom of the list after every election. Just refer to the bulletins every 4 years back..

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Oct and Nov are going to be crucial bulletins for any drastic movement of dates.
Irrespective of who wins the agencies are going to lookup for a direction from the then administration and so my take is we will see a regular movement nothing dramatically going to change as the administration has lot of other things to worry about and immigration comes to the bottom of the list after every election. Just refer to the bulletins every 4 years back..

The need of the hour for USCIS is pretty clear. They want funds, there has been a big void in FB applications which can be filled by EB applications - BY LAW. I hope they do the right thing going into the new FY2021 by moving the dates forward and processing the applications. But it's clear there are other forces at work here and it's going to be a fight.

[vsivarama]

The need of the hour for USCIS is pretty clear. They want funds, there has been a big void in FB applications which can be filled by EB applications - BY LAW. I hope they do the right thing going into the new FY2021 by moving the dates forward and processing the applications. But it's clear there are other forces at work here and it's going to be a fight.

That would be the conventional wisdom, but lately USCIS has been having it's cake and eating it too. All they need to do is drag their feet and go about business as usual. Complain they do not have the funds and hike the fees again. As long as there is no accountability from congress, they can repeat this playbook over and over again.

[NJMavarick]

DOS (Charlie Oppenheim) in June2020 (https://wolfsdorf.com/blog/2020/06/18/approximately-60000-additional-employment-visas-available-for-fiscal-year-2021-starting-october-1-2020/) already had announced that “FY 2021 Employment limit [could be] at least 200,000 [as opposed to the regular 140,000].” This number has now increased to 220K+. So everyone knows that it is happening. I don't know what more needs to happen officially.

The concern was will it be applied in October 2020 VB or November 2020 VB. I think, it should happen in Oct VB itself. CO will probably calculate the regular quota for EB2I/EB3I (should be around 5K) and apply. If he does only quarterly application, then EB2I FA will move about a month or so. For every month of movement in EB2I FA, EB3I FA should move at least 3 months (unless CO is anticipating EB3 to EB2 down-porting). As far as DF is concerned, EB2I may move to December 2009 (to cover 5K regular quota). EB3I DF should move 10 months (500*10 months = 5K) from Oct 2009 (CURRENT date) to July 2010. This is my crude assessment. With DT admin still ruling, I don't think they will do any "Hail Mary" movements either for DF or FA this year.

Lets keep looking for the Check-in. That would make things clear.

I pretty much agree with your assessment except that I do not expect the EB3I filing dates to reach July 2010. CO understands that with this comes down porting and will keep the dates within May 2010 before the big jump IMO. The SO number should be between 110-120K so ~260 EB visas. I do not have a link to substantiate my claim but that is based on pure logic given that 96K FB visas were consumed before everything shut down.

[shaks2020]

Regarding how the USCIS functions these days, I found this while browsing Quora, https://www.quora.com/The-USCIS-will-start-laying-off-thousands-of-employees-August-30th-now-that-the-stimulus-measure-is-dead-So-now-all-immigration-processing-has-stopped-with-the-bans-in-effect-from-Covid-19-Does-this-give-Trump-a
If you scroll down, there is an answer from a USCIS contractor called Mike Block. He seems to be one of the good guys. Perhaps we should upvote his answer on Quora and give him some encouragement :)

[longwaitgigu]

Question
My h1b extension has been filed and supposedly if my filing dates get current this month. Do I need to do h1b extension in premium and approved prior to file my i485?

[idliman]

Question
My h1b extension has been filed and supposedly if my filing dates get current this month. Do I need to do h1b extension in premium and approved prior to file my i485?
In your case, H1B is the underlying status to AOS. You don't need to do premium, as the both are separate and independent applications (unless the company is doing it for you or you need premium for some other reason). One is non-immigrant and other is immigrant. Many people maintain H1B in addition to I485 pending for the following two reasons:

Once you file I485, you have the backup status of I485 pending. If something happens to your H1B, you can fall back to the I485 pending status.
When you work on EAD/AP, the moment your EAD expires you need to stop working. However for H1B, once you apply you have the grace period, so you can keep working even if your H1B application is pending.

What is more awesome is that 180 days after I485 is pending, you become eligible for AC21 provisions (codified by law) that allows job portability.

When you have multiple status after filing AOS, your current status is based on the document you had used to enter USA. If you use EAD/AP, then your status becomes "District Authority / Parolee". If you use a valid H1B stamp to enter, then your status is H1B. A person who entered in "Parolee" status can revert to "H1B" and keep extending H1B. The fine-print is in an USCIS memo. Some people totally get rid of H1B and are comfortable to stay in EAD/AP (Parolee) status for many years. However, before the I485 gets approved they need to show a valid job offer in same or similar category subject to USCIS approval (I485 Supplement J). Once you apply I485, you will start understanding this.

It is widely accepted to keep a H1B status in addition to AOS pending status. This also provides additional revenue stream for the attorneys.

[EB2IndSep09]

Question
My h1b extension has been filed and supposedly if my filing dates get current this month. Do I need to do h1b extension in premium and approved prior to file my i485?

Agree with Idliman one should always have H1B as backup. Just to add cherry on top to idliman's reply. May be I should say chutney on top ;)
You did not mention when you filed the extension for H1B. so hoping you did before USCIS reinstated premium processing. Even if it is after that... below is going to give some info for you to make an informed decision
Trackitt numbers are still promising for a H1B extension averaging around 45 days. BTW my spouse got it last month approved in 32 days in regular filing.
So even if your PD becomes current in Oct bulletin, you have to wait till October to file the AOS petition. You might get your H1 approved even before you file AOS or at least by the time USCIS starts processing your AOS petiton.
I am no Immg Lawyer but I feel it is not worth spending money on PP because your case is not breaking any immigration law.

[longwaitgigu]

Thankyou idli man and eb2indsep09 for your reply
Actually the query is for my spouse( just filed 8/31/20 and expiring h1b 9/30/20). As u mentioned ur spouse got approved in 32 days( which service center?) as mine h1b extension took 4 months in Vermont service center- approved in june 2020.
So I will definitely consider it and not waste my money. Wait for October bulletin and how things changes for us.

[EB2IndSep09]

It was at Nebraska Service Center.

[H1b2006]

anybody explain why there is no premium processing for perm?

[android09]

anybody explain why there is no premium processing for perm?

Because PERM is a department of labor function. The DOL doesn’t care if you are in a hurry. The USDOL is not funded by User fees and has its own line item in the federal budget.

[getsaby]

Morning

Given the most anticipate bulletin for EB2 about to be reveal, want to know if any of EB2 2009 folks recieved any RFE.
I did my third Medical back in 2018, USCIS received it on Aug 15 2018.

[longwaitgigu]

Why are the predictions on mygcvisa.com so pessimistic. Has anyone observed that. It gives a very bad feeling

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Why are the predictions on mygcvisa.com so pessimistic. Has anyone observed that. It gives a very bad feeling

There is no new data or information from CO available that should change anyone's predictions or expectations.

Obligatory: Wait until the next bulletin, it might give you some more insight.

[srinivas20]

Hello All,

Emp A is ready to file my i485 at this time as dates are current. Currently I am working for Emp B.

Now when Emp A is planning to file i485 application .. do they file I485 supplement J or do they just file i485 application. I am not sure i know the difference between i485 and i485 supplement J application as I am filing i485 for the very first time.

[H1b2006]

looks like there are 6500 i-140s approved in eb3 for 2010 and 24000 eb2 i-140 approvals, if dates move till Dec 2010, how long it takes for people to port eb2 to eb3. ideally 4000-5000 people will downgrade if thier employers co-operate. it will eventually become 18k EB2, 12K EB3 for i 140 approvals for 2010.
i have a freind who has may 2010 pd in eb2 and eb3 but moved back to india for good. can they transfer thier cases to Consular processing? how long it takes for CP conversion from india.

[longwaitgigu]

I have calculated based on pending i140 For 2009- 3327- eb2x1.0=3327 2211- eb3x1.1=2432.1 ( I have approximately done half as eb2 and eb3 is in mid 2009) For 2010- 15313-eb2 x1.0=15313 6682-eb3x1.1=7350.2 Total including dependent ( multiply factor is from uscis estimated dependent multiplier)= 28422.3 both eb2 and eb3 folks in india waiting till 2010 end So with country limit- 5000 each eb2 and eb3 gets. We still need excess of horizontal spillover

[Spectator]

I have calculated based on pending i140 For 2009- 3327- eb2x1.0=3327 2211- eb3x1.1=2432.1 ( I have approximately done half as eb2 and eb3 is in mid 2009) For 2010- 15313-eb2 x1.0=15313 6682-eb3x1.1=7350.2 Total including dependent ( multiply factor is from uscis estimated dependent multiplier)= 28422.3 both eb2 and eb3 folks in india waiting till 2010 end So with country limit- 5000 each eb2 and eb3 gets. We still need excess of horizontal spillover

You might want to look at your calculation again.
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/foia/Count_of_Approved_I-140_I-360_and_I-526_Petitions_as_of_April_20_2018_with_a_Priority_ Date_On_or_After_May_2018.PDF

2nd = 1.0 dependent per primary = 2 I-485 (or CP) per I-140 = overall multiplier of 2.0
3rd = 1.1 dependent per primary = 2.1 I-485 (or CP) per I-140 = overall multiplier of 2.1

[altek001]

looks like there are 6500 i-140s approved in eb3 for 2010 and 24000 eb2 i-140 approvals, if dates move till Dec 2010, how long it takes for people to port eb2 to eb3. ideally 4000-5000 people will downgrade if thier employers co-operate. it will eventually become 18k EB2, 12K EB3 for i 140 approvals for 2010.
i have a freind who has may 2010 pd in eb2 and eb3 but moved back to india for good. can they transfer thier cases to Consular processing? how long it takes for CP conversion from india.

If it was mentioned in the I-140 filing that the applicant would proceed with Adjustment of status, then form I-824 (application for action on an approved petition) must be filed with USCIS in order for them to send the approved I-140 petition to NVC/DOS for consular processing. If it was mentioned 'Consular Processing' in I-140 filing, then no action is needed, as its already in file with NVC and they will contact both the applicant and petitioner when priority dates are about to get current.

[longwaitgigu]

You might want to look at your calculation again.
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/foia/Count_of_Approved_I-140_I-360_and_I-526_Petitions_as_of_April_20_2018_with_a_Priority_ Date_On_or_After_May_2018.PDF

2nd = 1.0 dependent per primary = 2 I-485 (or CP) per I-140 = overall multiplier of 2.0
3rd = 1.1 dependent per primary = 2.1 I-485 (or CP) per I-140 = overall multiplier of 2.1

Agree with u spec
Even I doubted my calculation when it came to less number
I hope this should be corrected calculation
I140 for year 2009( approximately taken half as dates in mid 2009)
Eb2- 3327x2.0=6654
Eb3-2211x2.1=4643.1
I140 for year 2010
Eb2- 15313x2.0=30,626
Eb3-6682×2.1=14,032.2
Total number including dependents
Should be 55,955.3
Again we dont know how many duplication
So horizontal spillover massively can only help for FAD to reach 2010 end

[vsivarama]

The total number till end of 2010 is difficult to calculate without the recent 485 pending inventory. For Eb2 at least the multiplier of 2.0 will not be applicable as we kind of know the numbers til April 2010 (though we have no clue of current upto date numbers). If we had recent 485 bulletins we could take the numbers for EB2 and EB3 as is from the inventory and then added the multiplier to the petitions for the rest of the year. But 50K total for EB2+EB3 without knowledge of duplicates or abandoned petitions is a good start. For EB3, I would be surprised if we had anything more than 15K till the end of Dec 2010 (without accounting for the potential downporting).

[amarrecherla]

Assuming that CO is ready to move dates based on extra 100k+ visas to EB, I think dates will be moved aggressively only after October (in Nov/Dec bulletin) based on these factors:
1) Possibility of bill before October to stop spillover (We know this is highly unlikely, but CO would like to wait)
2) Spillover is not official until Nov/Dec

Is my understanding correct?

[EB2IndSep09]

Assuming that CO is ready to move dates based on extra 100k+ visas to EB, I think dates will be moved aggressively only after October (in Nov/Dec bulletin) based on these factors:
1) Possibility of bill before October to stop spillover (We know this is highly unlikely, but CO would like to wait)
2) Spillover is not official until Nov/Dec

Is my understanding correct?

Depends on your definition of aggressively. Irrespective of the SO dates has to move as the new fiscal year quota to begin in October and that quarter's numbers must be allocated.
Now coming to your questions as Q mentioned in his previous post, SO is a right and has to be applied starting new fiscal year that is starting October. There is every possibility CO wants to wait and watch or administration might put their foot down etc all those are speculations which doesn't have any weighted for doing guess work.

Let us all be grounded on the situation of EB2 and EB3 India, we have seen zero movement to 1 or 2 days movement in past 4 years. Personally any movement like June/July Visa Bulletin 1.5 months, I call it aggressive as it became a new normal.

[Crypto]

Question for people whose PD is current post July 2020. Any idea how many of the one's who are current got there GC card mail and what is the wait time for GC printing at this point? I am still waiting and hence wondering what is over all delay expectation I should have?

[Crypto]

Question for people whose PD is current post July 2020. Any idea how many of the one's who are current got there GC card mail and what is the wait time for GC printing at this point? I am still waiting and hence wondering what is over all delay expectation I should have?

Itna Sannata kyu hai bhai !!!!

[android09]

Itna Sannata kyu hai bhai !!!!

Ab bolne ke liye baaki kya reh gaya hai ??

[TB12TB12]

Itna Sannata kyu hai bhai !!!!



Client ko billing karte huey Q ke website pe aney ki aadat lagi hai - Long weekend hai bhai

[qesehmk]

https://cdnaws.sharechat.com/%E0%A4%9A%E0%A5%81%E0%A4%9F%E0%A4%95%E0%A5%81%E0%A 4%B2%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%B2%E0%A4%BE_70c2272a-bf97-4f76-adef-9bde59980d38-c085f069-c9fb-4668-a02f-37441c2a9e54_cmprsd_40.jpg

[rocketfast]

https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/001/301/290/7e6.png

[monsieur]

Calm/Storm pic

Egjactly my thought... Hopefully this is calm before the storm of date movements.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Only if the immigration attorneys lobby and work as hard for EB applicants in preventing visa wastage like they are doing for DV applicants...

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Egjactly my thought... Hopefully this is calm before the storm of date movements.

I feel it's more like the calm before the s*it storm.

[karukon]

Happy to share the good news. Got status change of 485 approval. Wish every one to get greened, all the best!

[EB2IndSep09]

Happy to share the good news. Got status change of 485 approval. Wish every one to get greened, all the best!

Congratulations!!

[rabp77]

Question for people whose PD is current post July 2020. Any idea how many of the one's who are current got there GC card mail and what is the wait time for GC printing at this point? I am still waiting and hence wondering what is over all delay expectation I should have?

If you look at recent trackitt data, currently it takes around 3-4 weeks to get the card after the i-485 has been approved. So the answer to your question is around 3-4 weeks for printing after approval.

[AceMan]

https://cdnaws.sharechat.com/%E0%A4%9A%E0%A5%81%E0%A4%9F%E0%A4%95%E0%A5%81%E0%A 4%B2%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%B2%E0%A4%BE_70c2272a-bf97-4f76-adef-9bde59980d38-c085f069-c9fb-4668-a02f-37441c2a9e54_cmprsd_40.jpg

Shanthi meih dum hai :-)

[lville]

Question for people whose PD is current post July 2020. Any idea how many of the one's who are current got there GC card mail and what is the wait time for GC printing at this point? I am still waiting and hence wondering what is over all delay expectation I should have?

After my interview case was approved next day. From that day 1 it took approximately 3 weeks to get my card in hand. This is for folks with interview, whose files are moving around and active. If you are one of the guys who did not require interview and your file is at main office like NBC and not been touched for years, I've no idea about the timeline. Hopefully not much delay. However they are having significant delays with printing cards after your case is approved.

[EB2IndSep09]

After my interview case was approved next day. From that day 1 it took approximately 3 weeks to get my card in hand. This is for folks with interview, whose files are moving around and active. If you are one of the guys who did not require interview and your file is at main office like NBC and not been touched for years, I've no idea about the timeline. Hopefully not much delay. However they are having significant delays with card printing after your case is approved.

Thanks for sharing Iville. Could you share the dates for the benefit of readers please as things were very volatile during this pandemic.

[lville]

Thanks for sharing Iville. Could you share the dates for the benefit of readers please as things were very volatile during this pandemic.

My Interview was on 07/27/2020. My case was approved on 07/28/2020 and I got my card in hand on 08/20/2020

[GCMirage]

What was the interview like? Was it in person or a voice/video call? Does the officer inspect your certificates/exp letters etc., or is it just a formality ?

[longwaitgigu]

Greg siskind and other AILA have filed a lawsuit for FB immigrants also ( DV is won and ordered to start processing visa but cannot enter till December31 per proclamation). If the court orders FB immigrants to start processing visa( hearing is tomorrow), is it possible from October 1st ( if consulate open)- what lateral spillover we r expecting will not be given
I assumed this also the uscis will not have so much time to consume the FB numbers so possibility of spillover is still there. But not sure how CP will affect from October

[rabp77]

Greg siskind and other AILA have filed a lawsuit for FB immigrants also ( DV is won and ordered to start processing visa but cannot enter till December31 per proclamation). If the court orders FB immigrants to start processing visa( hearing is tomorrow), is it possible from October 1st ( if consulate open)- what lateral spillover we r expecting will not be given
I assumed this also the uscis will not have so much time to consume the FB numbers so possibility of spillover is still there. But not sure how CP will affect from October

Spillover is a certainty, unless laws are changed by Congress.

[longwaitgigu]

Spillover is a certainty, unless laws are changed by Congress.
I am not saying we will not get spillover
Read my post
My concern is the lateral spillover which is given quarterly and other is 7% rule for visas given to each country- that includes EB and FB
So if the lawsuit is won- FB starts and CP EB starts which leaves AOS in limbo and CO not moving dates aggressively

[qesehmk]

Spillover is a certainty, unless laws are changed by Congress.
This is absolutely correct. The year 2020 is practically over and the spillover has become a certainty. It is going to be quite substantial (100K + - 10K).

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Greg siskind and other AILA have filed a lawsuit for FB immigrants also ( DV is won and ordered to start processing visa but cannot enter till December31 per proclamation). If the court orders FB immigrants to start processing visa( hearing is tomorrow), is it possible from October 1st ( if consulate open)- what lateral spillover we r expecting will not be given
I assumed this also the uscis will not have so much time to consume the FB numbers so possibility of spillover is still there. But not sure how CP will affect from October

There's literally 15 working days left in the FY2020. No way they process excess of 100k visas in that time.

[longwaitgigu]

There's literally 15 working days left in the FY2020. No way they process excess of 100k visas in that time.
Please read my post, I am talking from new FY

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Please read my post, I am talking from new FY

Yup my bad! There are people on trackitt who think it's going to happen but thankfully there are saner and more informed heads here :).

[gcpursuit]

Does anyone know what "Document was mailed to you" status means for I-485? We responded to RFE last month and the last status was RFE response received. I was hoping for Approved message and this is confusing.
An ideas?

[karukon]

Mostly approval notice. Usually should say Case Approved. I believe its the same. Congratulations.

[gcpursuit]

Mostly approval notice. Usually should say Case Approved. I believe its the same. Congratulations.

Thanks but I dont think its approval . When we called uscis, the L1 officer told the case status was still in progress.
Hopefully nothing to worry about. will wait and see.

[Prabhas]

Guys,

Hope you all are well , safe and healthy away from this covid thing.

I am one of those ‘old timers’ equally excited and eagerly waiting for the spillover in hopes to be greened soon. I was doing some leisure reading and this caught my eye. All along I was under the impression that I485 interview is waived ONLY for those candidates who applied for AOS/I485 before March6th, 2017 when the EO was released. But from the link below it says that anyone with I140 approved earlier than March6th, 2017 is exempt from an Interview. Is that a fair statement and true?

If this is indeed correct then I ‘Hope’ most of us here waiting in a limbo will be greened soon.

Moderaters I’m quoting the link from another source. Please delete this message if it is not allowed to post it here.

https://www.fragomen.com/insights/alerts/employment-based-adjustment-interviews-what-foreign-nationals-need-know

[qesehmk]

Moderaters I’m quoting the link from another source. Please delete this message if it is not allowed to post it here.

Our website policy is to give credit to whoever owns the data whether users cut and paste data or simply mention it. You did the right thing by including a link.

[jimmys]

Guys,

Hope you all are well , safe and healthy away from this covid thing.

I am one of those ‘old timers’ equally excited and eagerly waiting for the spillover in hopes to be greened soon. I was doing some leisure reading and this caught my eye. All along I was under the impression that I485 interview is waived ONLY for those candidates who applied for AOS/I485 before March6th, 2017 when the EO was released. But from the link below it says that anyone with I140 approved earlier than March6th, 2017 is exempt from an Interview. Is that a fair statement and true?

If this is indeed correct then I ‘Hope’ most of us here waiting in a limbo will be greened soon.

Moderaters I’m quoting the link from another source. Please delete this message if it is not allowed to post it here.

https://www.fragomen.com/insights/alerts/employment-based-adjustment-interviews-what-foreign-nationals-need-know

Not true. My I-140 was approved in 2011 and I was called for in person interview after filing I-485 in 2018.

[maverick2010]

CO might wait end of this month to see whether congress does something for FB spillover - This might make him cautious and cause little movement. If congress does nothing before September then he might move dates in November bulletin. Any thoughts???

[EB2IndSep09]

Guys,

Hope you all are well , safe and healthy away from this covid thing.

I am one of those ‘old timers’ equally excited and eagerly waiting for the spillover in hopes to be greened soon. I was doing some leisure reading and this caught my eye. All along I was under the impression that I485 interview is waived ONLY for those candidates who applied for AOS/I485 before March6th, 2017 when the EO was released. But from the link below it says that anyone with I140 approved earlier than March6th, 2017 is exempt from an Interview. Is that a fair statement and true?

If this is indeed correct then I ‘Hope’ most of us here waiting in a limbo will be greened soon.

Moderaters I’m quoting the link from another source. Please delete this message if it is not allowed to post it here.

https://www.fragomen.com/insights/alerts/employment-based-adjustment-interviews-what-foreign-nationals-need-know

I wish that was true. Digged a little more and found the update that was published in Dec 2017. I believe everyone was interpreting the rules in their own way those days.
https://www.fragomen.com/insights/alerts/update-employment-based-adjustment-interviews-what-foreign-nationals-need-know

[EB2IndSep09]

CO might wait end of this month to see whether congress does something for FB spillover - This might make him cautious and cause little movement. If congress does nothing before September then he might move dates in November bulletin. Any thoughts???

As I mentioned earlier, all those are speculations so doesn't count in the equation as they are many variables. However hope he will be cautious to move dates only to the extent to avoid another 2012 fiasco.
We should not be disappointed if the movement is not each one of us personally expect as the fiscal year is just going to start now and there are 11 more bulletins to go.

[rocketfast]

CO might wait end of this month to see whether congress does something for FB spillover - This might make him cautious and cause little movement. If congress does nothing before September then he might move dates in November bulletin. Any thoughts???

IMO, it is good for the bulletin to come as late as possible. If it comes early, the folks at CIS/UsTechWorkers may have enough time to get it reversed. In my view, ideal movement would be 4-6 months every bulletin from now to December. Hopefully, when it comes out, we don't make too much noise as that will attract the antis.

[EB2IndSep09]

IMO, it is good for the bulletin to come as late as possible. If it comes early, the folks at CIS/UsTechWorkers may have enough time to get it reversed. In my view, ideal movement would be 4-6 months every bulletin from now to December. Hopefully, when it comes out, we don't make too much noise as that will attract the antis.

Not sure why would anyone reverse that too only for EB2 and EB3. If that is the case EB1 should have never moved years together within few months.

[rocketfast]

Not sure why would anyone reverse that too only for EB2 and EB3. If that is the case EB1 should have never moved years together within few months.

If you have been reading CIS articles, they separate EB1 from EB2 and EB3.

[H1b2006]

keeping fingers crossed. Staying put in current job

[Prabhas]

I wish that was true. Digged a little more and found the update that was published in Dec 2017. I believe everyone was interpreting the rules in their own way those days.
https://www.fragomen.com/insights/alerts/update-employment-based-adjustment-interviews-what-foreign-nationals-need-know


Thanks Jimmy and SP. So we should have applied for I485 on or before Mar 6th, 20176 to be exempt from I485 interview.

V

[rabp77]

Thanks Jimmy and SP. So we should have applied for I485 on or before Mar 6th, 20176 to be exempt from I485 interview.

V
Yes. I believe that's right. I had two 140s filed before 2017(2010 and 2012) but still was called for interview.

[Prabhas]

Our website policy is to give credit to whoever owns the data whether users cut and paste data or simply mention it. You did the right thing by including a link.

Thanks Q!:)

[qesehmk]

Thanks Q!:)No worries :) This is for everybody ... if you share external information, then do credit the original person.

[android09]

No worries :) This is for everybody ... if you share external information, then do credit the original person.

Hi Q, this is an unrelated question. What's the deal with the "Check in with Charlie Oppenheim" ? Is that a monthly jig where he meets with members of the immigration lawyer community(AILA)? Who organizes this meeting? Can the public join in to listen or participate?

[jimmys]

Hi Q, this is an unrelated question. What's the deal with the "Check in with Charlie Oppenheim" ? Is that a monthly jig where he meets with members of the immigration lawyer community(AILA)? Who organizes this meeting? Can the public join in to listen or participate?

I think the meeting with Charlie happens few days after the VB was released. AFAIK, public participation is not allowed. Only AILA and its members can be present in that meeting. Carl Shusterman of www.shusterman.com usually publishes the call details with Charlie every month. Hope this helps!

[qesehmk]

Hi Q, this is an unrelated question. What's the deal with the "Check in with Charlie Oppenheim" ? Is that a monthly jig where he meets with members of the immigration lawyer community(AILA)? Who organizes this meeting? Can the public join in to listen or participate?
Thanks to jimmys who answered your question well. My additional 2 cents - I think this is how CO can control the crowd, speak to business stakeholders, and more importantly provide some direction to backlogged folks without being held liable for anything he says.

If some of you have questions that need answered, one of you can volunteer every month and collect and I can send it to his office and see if he might address those during his monthly AILA meetings or directly to us.

[karukon]

Congratulations!!

Got the cards today: Time line below, hope it helps and good luck to all.

PD Current in JULY bulletin
July 7th raised SR online
July 15th Got reply there is no visa available
July 15th : Called and raised SR
July 21 : Got reply there is visa available and 485 will be processed
Jul 27th : Got RFE sms
Aug 8th : received RFE documents (485 J, Biometrics, medicals)
Aug 24th : RFE received by uscis
Aug 29th : 485 Approved online update
Sep 3rd : Again 485 Approved online update
Sep 8th : Approval notices received
Sep 9 : Card mailed online update
Sep 16th : Cards received

[rabp77]

Got the cards today: Time line below, hope it helps and good luck to all.

PD Current in JULY bulletin
July 7th raised SR online
July 15th Got reply there is no visa available
July 15th : Called and raised SR
July 21 : Got reply there is visa available and 485 will be processed
Jul 27th : Got RFE sms
Aug 8th : received RFE documents (485 J, Biometrics, medicals)
Aug 24th : RFE received by uscis
Aug 29th : 485 Approved online update
Sep 3rd : Again 485 Approved online update
Sep 8th : Approval notices received
Sep 9 : Card mailed online update
Sep 16th : Cards received

Congratulations Karukon. We celebrate your freedom !!! Please use it to give back as much as possible to society and needy.

[EB2IndSep09]

Got the cards today: Time line below, hope it helps and good luck to all.

PD Current in JULY bulletin
July 7th raised SR online
July 15th Got reply there is no visa available
July 15th : Called and raised SR
July 21 : Got reply there is visa available and 485 will be processed
Jul 27th : Got RFE sms
Aug 8th : received RFE documents (485 J, Biometrics, medicals)
Aug 24th : RFE received by uscis
Aug 29th : 485 Approved online update
Sep 3rd : Again 485 Approved online update
Sep 8th : Approval notices received
Sep 9 : Card mailed online update
Sep 16th : Cards received

Freeeeedom!!
Is there any specific reason other than grabbing USCIS attention you raised SR on July 7th when your priority date became current?

[karukon]

Got RFE in the end of 2012, 2014, 2016 in anticipation of getting current. Finally current and no RFE.

[karukon]

[QUOTE=rabp77;66120]Congratulations Karukon. We celebrate your freedom !!! Please use it to give back as much as possible to society and needy.[/QUOTE

Irrespective of GC should have compassionate empathy. Agree no better times than these!

[bloddy1]

Got RFE in the end of 2012, 2014, 2016 in anticipation of getting current. Finally current and no RFE.

Better this way! than the other way around ! Congrats

[idliman]

Got RFE in the end of 2012, 2014, 2016 in anticipation of getting current. Finally current and no RFE.
Finally something goes your way unexpectedly. A pleasant surprise! Congratulations.
I get happy seeing approvals from folks who have waited for a long time. People who do not go through this ordeal do not appreciate the importance of this piece of plastic.

[srimurthy]

Finally something goes your way unexpectedly. A pleasant surprise! Congratulations.
I get happy seeing approvals from folks who have waited for a long time. People who do not go through this ordeal do not appreciate the importance of this piece of plastic.

Who ever gets approved in EB2 and EB3 these would have waited a decade for sure. And we would not even have ventured out to do all these calculations and predictions if it was not for these unclear and arbitrary movements.

[idliman]

IMO, it is good for the bulletin to come as late as possible. If it comes early, the folks at CIS/UsTechWorkers may have enough time to get it reversed. In my view, ideal movement would be 4-6 months every bulletin from now to December. Hopefully, when it comes out, we don't make too much noise as that will attract the antis.
I think your wish is coming true. Its 2PM already, so doesn't look like VB is going to be released today.


Who ever gets approved in EB2 and EB3 these would have waited a decade for sure. And we would not even have ventured out to do all these calculations and predictions if it was not for these unclear and arbitrary movements.
I agree. The OP got his GC approved when the RFE reply was pending. Something unexpected but good.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I wanted to check because of curiosity when the first of these threads was started:

10-03-2010, 10:29 AM

(:-O)

[EB22010Dec]

I wanted to check because of curiosity when the first of these threads was started:

10-03-2010, 10:29 AM

(:-O)


One Decade and still waiting. Let that sink in.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

One Decade and still waiting. Let that sink in.

I like to think of that as 25% of my life, hits home better.

[qesehmk]

I wanted to check because of curiosity when the first of these threads was started:

10-03-2010, 10:29 AM

(:-O)
Although many folks who were with us on that day, have moved on - received GC/citizenship and have prospered; personally it makes my head heavy thinking of everybody that is in the backlog today. All I can say is, focus on life, people you love, travel around, enjoy life and propser at your career. Remove the mental block of not having GC. You will surprised how well US workplace will treat you when you are confident.

My best wishes to all.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

RBG is dead. There goes the rest of our civil liberties...

[longwaitgigu]

Question
My spouse h1b extension was filed on 8/31 and has still not received receipt. Can he still work post 9/30 without receiving receipt ( driver's license will also be expiring 10/10)?
We will be asking attorney this week what they recommend or else have to convert to premium.
Thankyou

[TB12TB12]

RBG is dead. There goes the rest of our civil liberties...


Please enlighten us which "civil liberties" have gone with RBG's passing.



Please at least name one because I cannot find even one civil liberty that has gone and here you are talking in plural.

[TB12TB12]

Although many folks who were with us on that day, have moved on - received GC/citizenship and have prospered; personally it makes my head heavy thinking of everybody that is in the backlog today. All I can say is, focus on life, people you love, travel around, enjoy life and propser at your career. Remove the mental block of not having GC. You will surprised how well US workplace will treat you when you are confident.

My best wishes to all.

Well said. Not having GC does not prevent you from enjoying all the good things life has to offer. Don't watch every month's visa bulletin / every bill / every statement from politicos etc etc.


If you think of GC think it as if it were your long term investments. You don't watch what happens to your WMT / AMZN / AAPL every few weeks. You know in 10 years they will be winners and you will be Greened or very close to it.

[altek001]

--Info on FY2021 FB to EB spillover

https://www.adhikarilaw.com/news-and-alerts/unused-family-based-visa-numbers-from-2020-will-likely-make-fy-2021-employment-based-visa-numbers-all-current/

[altek001]

--Info on FY2021 FB to EB spillover

https://www.adhikarilaw.com/news-and-alerts/unused-family-based-visa-numbers-from-2020-will-likely-make-fy-2021-employment-based-visa-numbers-all-current/

" When American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) last spoke with Charlie Oppenheim of the U.S. State Department in July 2020, he anticipated that the infusion of unused family-based visa numbers could increase the FY21 employment-based allocation to at least 250,000 immigrant visas.

To put that into perspective, FY20’s employment-based allocation is the second highest allocation of employment-based numbers in memory, at 156,000, with the highest being 158,000. An employment-based allocation of 250,000 would reflect a 63% increase relative to the highest allocation in recent memory.
"

[idliman]

" When American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) last spoke with Charlie Oppenheim of the U.S. State Department in July 2020, he anticipated that the infusion of unused family-based visa numbers could increase the FY21 employment-based allocation to at least 250,000 immigrant visas.

To put that into perspective, FY20’s employment-based allocation is the second highest allocation of employment-based numbers in memory, at 156,000, with the highest being 158,000. An employment-based allocation of 250,000 would reflect a 63% increase relative to the highest allocation in recent memory.
"
This looks like recycled old info from the law firm. Does not look like fresh news from AILA / Check-in. I am wondering why the official channels and AILA are silent.

What is interesting is that the Law firm still quotes:

Moreover, movement in October may be more measured given that there have been some legislative efforts to recapture unused family-based visas for use by family-sponsored immigrants in FY21. At present, the likelihood of passing of any of these bills remains slim.

With Justice RBG's death and the prevailing political environment, only CR to keep government running will pass. So we can relax on the legislation front (at least till February 2021). I don't think legislation will be able to do it retroactively without harming others. So, each month adds about 10K of spillover from FB pool.

[Spectator]

" When American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) last spoke with Charlie Oppenheim of the U.S. State Department in July 2020, he anticipated that the infusion of unused family-based visa numbers could increase the FY21 employment-based allocation to at least 250,000 immigrant visas.

To put that into perspective, FY20’s employment-based allocation is the second highest allocation of employment-based numbers in memory, at 156,000, with the highest being 158,000. An employment-based allocation of 250,000 would reflect a 63% increase relative to the highest allocation in recent memory.
"
They seem to have a limited memory.

Here's the EB allocation and Use for EB back to 1993:

- FY ------ Alloc. ----- Use
FY1993 --- 161,207 --- 161,207
FY1994 --- 143,213 --- 113,783
FY1995 --- 146,503 ---- 87,809
FY1996 --- 140,000 --- 118,827
FY1997 --- 140,000 ---- 99,290
FY1998 --- 140,000 ---- 86,429
FY1999 --- 160,906 ---- 61,965
FY2000 --- 142,299 --- 111,166
FY2001 --- 192,074 --- 186,536
FY2002 --- 142,632 --- 171,583
FY2003 --- 171,532 ---- 83,020
FY2004 --- 204,422 --- 157,107
FY2005 --- 148,449 --- 242,293
FY2006 --- 143,949 --- 133,622
FY2007 --- 147,148 --- 154,460
FY2008 --- 162,704 --- 162,949
FY2009 --- 140,000 --- 140,987
FY2010 --- 150,657 --- 150,262
FY2011 --- 140,000 --- 139,302
FY2012 --- 144,951 --- 144,648
FY2013 --- 158,466 --- 161,269
FY2014 --- 150,241 --- 151,359
FY2015 --- 144,796 --- 143,954
FY2016 --- 140,338 --- 140,350
FY2017 --- 140,000 --- 139,604
FY2018 --- 140,292 --- 139,483
FY2019 --- 141,918 --- 140,586
FY2020 --- 156,253 --- ???,???

As recently as FY2008, the allocation was more than the 158k mentioned.

The maximum number of approvals in a FY during that period was in FY2005 (during visa recapture) with 242,293 approvals. The 2nd highest was in FY2001 with 186,536 approvals.

[longwaitgigu]

They seem to have a limited memory.

Here's the EB allocation and Use for EB back to 1993:

...............

Awesome spectator
This year 2021 could be highest EB allocation if utilized properly(250k atleast per article)

[NJMavarick]

This looks like recycled old info from the law firm. Does not look like fresh news from AILA / Check-in. I am wondering why the official channels and AILA are silent.

What is interesting is that the Law firm still quotes:


With Justice RBG's death and the prevailing political environment, only CR to keep government running will pass. So we can relax on the legislation front (at least till February 2021). I don't think legislation will be able to do it retroactively without harming others. So, each month adds about 10K of spillover from FB pool.

No! This is published by AILA on their website as a practice pointer! All law firms have access to this document #AILA Doc. No. 20091810 which was published on 09/18

[idliman]

No! This is published by AILA on their website as a practice pointer! All law firms have access to this document #AILA Doc. No. 20091810 which was published on 09/18
The post read it as if it was copied from earlier check-in. Thank you for your reference and validation. If someone has access to the AILA document, please share relevant paragraphs.

Surprised that the DOS did not give advance guidance/info to AILA till now. No idea of what's actually happening behind the scenes. If so, they might even delay the VB till next week.

[rocketfast]

The maximum number of approvals in a FY during that period was in FY2005 (during visa recapture) with 242,293 approvals. The 2nd highest was in FY2001 with 186,536 approvals.

This is a long shot, Spec. But, do you want to create a mini-tsunami by putting your predictions here for 250,000 visa numbers? (based on whatever data is available).

[gs1968]

They seem to have a limited memory.

Here's the EB allocation and Use for EB back to 1993:

- FY ------ Alloc. ----- Use
FY1993 --- 161,207 --- 161,207
FY1994 --- 143,213 --- 113,783
FY1995 --- 146,503 ---- 87,809
FY1996 --- 140,000 --- 118,827
FY1997 --- 140,000 ---- 99,290
FY1998 --- 140,000 ---- 86,429
FY1999 --- 160,906 ---- 61,965
FY2000 --- 142,299 --- 111,166
FY2001 --- 192,074 --- 186,536
FY2002 --- 142,632 --- 171,583
FY2003 --- 171,532 ---- 83,020
FY2004 --- 204,422 --- 157,107
FY2005 --- 148,449 --- 242,293
FY2006 --- 143,949 --- 133,622
FY2007 --- 147,148 --- 154,460
FY2008 --- 162,704 --- 162,949
FY2009 --- 140,000 --- 140,987
FY2010 --- 150,657 --- 150,262
FY2011 --- 140,000 --- 139,302
FY2012 --- 144,951 --- 144,648
FY2013 --- 158,466 --- 161,269
FY2014 --- 150,241 --- 151,359
FY2015 --- 144,796 --- 143,954
FY2016 --- 140,338 --- 140,350
FY2017 --- 140,000 --- 139,604
FY2018 --- 140,292 --- 139,483
FY2019 --- 141,918 --- 140,586
FY2020 --- 156,253 --- ???,???

As recently as FY2008, the allocation was more than the 158k mentioned.

The maximum number of approvals in a FY during that period was in FY2005 (during visa recapture) with 242,293 approvals. The 2nd highest was in FY2001 with 186,536 approvals.

It would be great if all the spillover visas from FB are used without any processing bottlenecks getting in the way. The FB categories are severely backlogged to and it would be a shame to waste those visa numbers without utilizing them in either category

[NJMavarick]

It would be great if all the spillover visas from FB are used without any processing bottlenecks getting in the way. The FB categories are severely backlogged to and it would be a shame to waste those visa numbers without utilizing them in either category

Not to throw a wrench but will the unused FY21 EB numbers SO to FB FY22? Spec, Q?

[rocketfast]

Not to throw a wrench but will the unused FY21 EB numbers SO to FB FY22? Spec, Q?

What are INA laws around FB to EB and EB to FB spillover

* Family spillover goes to EB
* EB spillover goes to FB
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=64774&viewfull=1#post64774

Does this mean that spillovers that go from EB to FB can come back next year?

For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=64819&viewfull=1#post64819

[EB2IndSep09]

Not to throw a wrench but will the unused FY21 EB numbers SO to FB FY22? Spec, Q?

There won't be any unused visa in EB numbers in 2021 with wait times spanning anywhere between a decade to a dozen decades depending on the queue.
I am not a immigration lawyer but even if there is that hypothetical surplus number of visas in EB there is no such provision in INA which will allow circular spill over from one to another. In short visas will lapse if not used in time.

[NJMavarick]

What are INA laws around FB to EB and EB to FB spillover

* Family spillover goes to EB
* EB spillover goes to FB
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=64774&viewfull=1#post64774

Does this mean that spillovers that go from EB to FB can come back next year?

For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=64819&viewfull=1#post64819

Thanks! I knew we did discuss this on the forum but was unable to find the links....Cheers

[mesan123]

Although many folks who were with us on that day, have moved on - received GC/citizenship and have prospered; personally it makes my head heavy thinking of everybody that is in the backlog today. All I can say is, focus on life, people you love, travel around, enjoy life and propser at your career. Remove the mental block of not having GC. You will surprised how well US workplace will treat you when you are confident.

My best wishes to all.

Hi Q, remember the good old days...yes many moved and few goldies like you Spec still supporting the community, few like us still stuck in the line :)

Agree with Q on the GC mindblock... i moved on with that mindset...got better job and GC line doesnot bother me much as it used to few years ago ....it comes when it comes

[amulchandra]

Hi Q, remember the good old days...yes many moved and few goldies like you Spec still supporting the community, few like us still stuck in the line :)

Agree with Q on the GC mindblock... i moved on with that mindset...got better job and GC line doesnot bother me much as it used to few years ago ....it comes when it comes

I got my green card 3 years ago but still can’t move on. I keep visiting this forum, reading the posts and agonizing about people who are still stuck. This journey is incredibly painful and is very hard to get over. Really appreciate the service being done by Q and Spec to this backlogged community. This site provided me solace when I felt depressed. Especially predictions by YTeleven used to create a lot of excitement. Thank you once again to everyone on this forum.

Good luck to all who are still waiting.

Amul

[h1bh1bh1b]

Got my green card today! Fourteen year wait is over.. Thanks for the community and the crystal ball with positive vibes. Thanks a lot and wish the spillover moves the date to 2012 and beyond..

[idliman]

Hi Q, remember the good old days...yes many moved and few goldies like you Spec still supporting the community, few like us still stuck in the line :)

Agree with Q on the GC mindblock... i moved on with that mindset...got better job and GC line doesnot bother me much as it used to few years ago ....it comes when it comes
In most families there is one member who is stressing about GCs and visiting forums. If it is not the husband then it is the wife.

I am not arguing against. However, I am placing alternate views below.

In my opinion other than personal mindset, the stress on backlogged people is dependent on the industry / company. If you are in an industry other than IT services, there is a chance that it can go through unprecedented changes in 10 years (e.g. Automotive, Oil and Gas, Fossil / Nuclear Power, etc.,). For example if you got your Masters / PhD in IC engines and had joined Ford/GM on that expertise, then 10 years down the line you are facing against Tesla and your technology is dying. How are you going to get a job in same or similar category. There is little use to that Masters / PhD other than the course work and process you went through. In that time, the GC will help you to switch industries.

I am sure the IT techies can also provide similar examples. Another thing that hurts some people till getting citizenship is employment in National Labs / EPA / FHA / NOAA / NRC / Govt. research jobs. A few years back these agencies were open to good H1B candidates through contract. Now things have changed dramatically especially under Trump admin. Sometimes we get comments such as he is an expert, however I don't want a H1B candidate. I can just hire 15 citizens and brute force the job. Shockingly that seems to be the mentality in some places.

What i am saying is that, even if you are very good, you need some things to fall in place when you are in H1B status.

[getsaby]

Got my green card today! Fourteen year wait is over.. Thanks for the community and the crystal ball with positive vibes. Thanks a lot and wish the spillover moves the date to 2012 and beyond..

Congrats!

What is your PD, and country of chargeability

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

In most families there is one member who is stressing about GCs and visiting forums. If it is not the husband then it is the wife.

I am not arguing against. However, I am placing alternate views below.

In my opinion other than personal mindset, the stress on backlogged people is dependent on the industry / company. If you are in an industry other than IT services, there is a chance that it can go through unprecedented changes in 10 years (e.g. Automotive, Oil and Gas, Fossil / Nuclear Power, etc.,). For example if you got your Masters / PhD in IC engines and had joined Ford/GM on that expertise, then 10 years down the line you are facing against Tesla and your technology is dying. How are you going to get a job in same or similar category. There is little use to that Masters / PhD other than the course work and process you went through. In that time, the GC will help you to switch industries.

I am sure the IT techies can also provide similar examples. Another thing that hurts some people till getting citizenship is employment in National Labs / EPA / FHA / NOAA / NRC / Govt. research jobs. A few years back these agencies were open to good H1B candidates through contract. Now things have changed dramatically especially under Trump admin. Sometimes we get comments such as he is an expert, however I don't want a H1B candidate. I can just hire 15 citizens and brute force the job. Shockingly that seems to be the mentality in some places.

What i am saying is that, even if you are very good, you need some things to fall in place when you are in H1B status.

Rings very true in my case. I am in the O&G industry and subject to the fluctuations of that heavily but at least I was able to get in line in 2010. My wife is exceptionally qualified for EB1 and works indirectly for Space/Defense sectors and holds three engineering degrees, but due to restrictions that can't be discussed here, she is still on H1. There is still a chance that after waiting for 10 years for my PD to become current, she may still end up getting hers and I will happily ride her coattails ;-).

The way we have been working through this is at first neither of us cared about the dates as we were traveling around experiencing different locations until the kids had to be in school. In the past year or so I have started following the dates as kids got in school and the lack of GC started impacting my wife's work in some sensitive areas, but she is still blissfully ignorant and wants to remain that way. It has become so comical at her workplace that at times she will be prepping some equipment for space flight and a USC will be sitting in the room doodling on something because those are the regulations.

After you get to a certain age, you just make peace with your situation and go with the flow and focus on your family, friends and other things.

[srimurthy]

Rings very true in my case. I am in the O&G industry and subject to the fluctuations of that heavily but at least I was able to get in line in 2010. My wife is exceptionally qualified for EB1 and works indirectly for Space/Defense sectors and holds three engineering degrees, but due to restrictions that can't be discussed here, she is still on H1. There is still a chance that after waiting for 10 years for my PD to become current, she may still end up getting hers and I will happily ride her coattails ;-).

The way we have been working through this is at first neither of us cared about the dates as we were traveling around experiencing different locations until the kids had to be in school. In the past year or so I have started following the dates as kids got in school and the lack of GC started impacting my wife's work in some sensitive areas, but she is still blissfully ignorant and wants to remain that way. It has become so comical at her workplace that at times she will be prepping some equipment for space flight and a USC will be sitting in the room doodling on something because those are the regulations.

After you get to a certain age, you just make peace with your situation and go with the flow and focus on your family, friends and other things.

Along with kids aging out or getting them all the opportunities when they go to college are a pain. Anyone with dates in 2009 and 2010 and kids at that time in the age group of 1 to 5 born outside can feel it.
And it especially hurts to see kids them selves realizing when they are looking for opportunities and see the limited set with a SSN or GC.
With more than 10 years and not even a EAD is not logical anywhere. Two people in early 2009 once already approved and is already a citizen and the other still waiting for GC.... shows the inefficiency of the system and allocation.
Especially when it is an employment based GC dependent on skill sets and saying they will not discriminate based on race, religion, sex or belief and we still see that it is not true.

[reys03]

True this. My spouse and I are waiting in line for more than 10 years now. I stress out a lot more especially during H1B extensions. Wouldn't hurt to have GC now during the pandemic when job security is at a minimum.

[idliman]

Along with kids aging out or getting them all the opportunities when they go to college are a pain. Anyone with dates in 2009 and 2010 and kids at that time in the age group of 1 to 5 born outside can feel it.
And it especially hurts to see kids them selves realizing when they are looking for opportunities and see the limited set with a SSN or GC.
With more than 10 years and not even a EAD is not logical anywhere. Two people in early 2009 once already approved and is already a citizen and the other still waiting for GC.... shows the inefficiency of the system and allocation.
Especially when it is an employment based GC dependent on skill sets and saying they will not discriminate based on race, religion, sex or belief and we still see that it is not true.
Kids’ aging out is one of the worst things that can happen in a GC backlog. People keep talking about DACA, but no one talks about H4 kids aging out. I do a lot of volunteering for Indian language school and I have seen people on H1B roaming around without knowing that their kids will age out. When I ask them, they say GC will come eventually. Most are living care free. IMO it is better to be stressed about what is happening than living in peace because of ignorance.

I sincerely pray that you get to file I485 with FA dates in the next year. This spillover is a once in a generation type event. We have already seen the difference between people with earlier 2009 PDs and later 2009 PDs. It is 8+ years difference in GC. When the movement stops at the end of 2021, it is going to create similar heartbreaks to people. i.e., people who get in in the 2021 quota and people who missed out.

[mesan123]

In most families there is one member who is stressing about GCs and visiting forums. If it is not the husband then it is the wife.

I am not arguing against. However, I am placing alternate views below.

In my opinion other than personal mindset, the stress on backlogged people is dependent on the industry / company. If you are in an industry other than IT services, there is a chance that it can go through unprecedented changes in 10 years (e.g. Automotive, Oil and Gas, Fossil / Nuclear Power, etc.,). For example if you got your Masters / PhD in IC engines and had joined Ford/GM on that expertise, then 10 years down the line you are facing against Tesla and your technology is dying. How are you going to get a job in same or similar category. There is little use to that Masters / PhD other than the course work and process you went through. In that time, the GC will help you to switch industries.

I am sure the IT techies can also provide similar examples. Another thing that hurts some people till getting citizenship is employment in National Labs / EPA / FHA / NOAA / NRC / Govt. research jobs. A few years back these agencies were open to good H1B candidates through contract. Now things have changed dramatically especially under Trump admin. Sometimes we get comments such as he is an expert, however I don't want a H1B candidate. I can just hire 15 citizens and brute force the job. Shockingly that seems to be the mentality in some places.

What i am saying is that, even if you are very good, you need some things to fall in place when you are in H1B status.

Agree it is tough for us with the H1b baggage.. I do have same challenges( i believe everyone on the H1b pipeline has to go through it irrespective of the Domain we are in)... I was more pointing out like it is part and parcel of my life now( after being here for almost 15th H1b year and still waiting) and took the approach what Q pointed out at(it is not going to anyway make my issues with my GC goaway, it only helped me to get some sleep and enjoying with family without stressing toomuch and stressing people next to me unknowingly), so thought to keep it behind and work on other things , as there is no way we can change it.

This forum folks helped me look at things differently, It can Q, Spec, Nishanth, Kanmani etall... I come here often ... we all are in this together... Hoping we all see somelight soon :)

[srimurthy]

Kids’ aging out is one of the worst things that can happen in a GC backlog. People keep talking about DACA, but no one talks about H4 kids aging out. I do a lot of volunteering for Indian language school and I have seen people on H1B roaming around without knowing that their kids will age out. When I ask them, they say GC will come eventually. Most are living care free. IMO it is better to be stressed about what is happening than living in peace because of ignorance.


Agreed and you don't get the feel of it until the kids have entered high school. People who did master here in US may have some idea and I see a low probability that their kids fall in the aging out category. Its usually people who move here on H1 / L1 with kids and then realize that the High School and College admissions is a completely different ball game here when compared to choosing Engineering or Medicine or even (Phy Mat Chem) or ( Bio, Chem and Zoo) at +2 level.

[qesehmk]

Hi Q, remember the good old days...yes many moved and few goldies like you Spec still supporting the community, few like us still stuck in the line :)

Agree with Q on the GC mindblock... i moved on with that mindset...got better job and GC line doesnot bother me much as it used to few years ago ....it comes when it comes
So nice to hear from you. I am happy to hear that you got a better job and are a bit sanguine about GC. It will be when it will be isn't it?


I got my green card 3 years ago but still can’t move on. I keep visiting this forum, reading the posts and agonizing about people who are still stuck. This journey is incredibly painful and is very hard to get over. Really appreciate the service being done by Q and Spec to this backlogged community. This site provided me solace when I felt depressed. Especially predictions by YTeleven used to create a lot of excitement. Thank you once again to everyone on this forum.

Good luck to all who are still waiting.

Amul
You are not alone Amul, a ton of oldies keep visiting. People like GCQ who should be citizens by now - I keep seeing them. The ability to vent and see others in similar fate as yours makes the journey easy. And I also think that folks have been 99.99% times very civil courteous and helpful. And I don't mean just gurus but everybody participating.


Got my green card today! Fourteen year wait is over.. Thanks for the community and the crystal ball with positive vibes. Thanks a lot and wish the spillover moves the date to 2012 and beyond.. Congrats my friend. All the best for future.


In most families there is one member who is stressing about GCs and visiting forums. If it is not the husband then it is the wife.

I am not arguing against. However, I am placing alternate views below.

In my opinion other than personal mindset, the stress on backlogged people is dependent on the industry / company. If you are in an industry other than IT services, there is a chance that it can go through unprecedented changes in 10 years (e.g. Automotive, Oil and Gas, Fossil / Nuclear Power, etc.,). For example if you got your Masters / PhD in IC engines and had joined Ford/GM on that expertise, then 10 years down the line you are facing against Tesla and your technology is dying. How are you going to get a job in same or similar category. There is little use to that Masters / PhD other than the course work and process you went through. In that time, the GC will help you to switch industries.

I am sure the IT techies can also provide similar examples. Another thing that hurts some people till getting citizenship is employment in National Labs / EPA / FHA / NOAA / NRC / Govt. research jobs. A few years back these agencies were open to good H1B candidates through contract. Now things have changed dramatically especially under Trump admin. Sometimes we get comments such as he is an expert, however I don't want a H1B candidate. I can just hire 15 citizens and brute force the job. Shockingly that seems to be the mentality in some places.

What i am saying is that, even if you are very good, you need some things to fall in place when you are in H1B status.

I worked with such an employer and that's why I was so mad at the whole GC backlog. Anxiety frustration and anger are all valid. Nothing to be ashamed of. There have been patches of my own life (other than GC journey) when I have felt these feelings and for me the things that have worked best was going on long walks with my wife.


.. Two people in early 2009 once already approved and is already a citizen and the other still waiting for GC.... shows the inefficiency of the system and allocation.
...
Not just inefficiency but inequity and injustice. Isn't it?

[h1bh1bh1b]

To getsaby:
PD September 2009
EBI3

[optimista]

"True That" to so many comments mentioned by folks above. About 60 to 80% of my working years have already gone waiting for GC and I don't even have an EAD in hand with no guarantee of getting it in the near future. I worked at one of my clients for well over 10 years but was never hired full time because of getting discriminated squarely by the client who has perfected the art of hiring large desi work force on contract to such an extent that they are literally running a slave farm. It is really frustrating and soul destroying. And to top it all we have got an openly anti immigrant admin. who takes great pleasure in harassing immigrants at every chance they get.

It's just disgusting and repulsive what this immigration system has come to.

No other country treats its immigrants with such disdain and at the same time exploit them to the fullest possible extent. Its' just unbelievable. None of us knew what deal we were signing up with this devil of a system.

Hope we get through this on the other side safely.

Peace.

[rabp77]

Got my green card today! Fourteen year wait is over.. Thanks for the community and the crystal ball with positive vibes. Thanks a lot and wish the spillover moves the date to 2012 and beyond..

Congratulations h1bh1bh1b. Maybe you should change your handle name to GCGCGC now :-) . We celebrate your freedom.

[mesan123]

Got my green card today! Fourteen year wait is over.. Thanks for the community and the crystal ball with positive vibes. Thanks a lot and wish the spillover moves the date to 2012 and beyond.. Congratulations !!!!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

gsiskind had his facebook livestream yesterday evening. https://www.facebook.com/siskindsusser/videos/244942923582172. I did not listen to it. Here's someone's (wagecuck3) interpretation of what was discussed.

Probably over the entire fiscal year and not in this bulletin. In any case, multiple year movement in one category seems far fetched. Maybe he thinks EB1I will be made current. They will stall EB2I per usual.

[inspired_p]

Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

Any thoughts ?Please.

Regards
Inspired_P

[mesan123]

Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

Any thoughts ?Please.

Regards
Inspired_P

Just my POV.. nothing is certain , take the job if it is something you are lookig for. As of now everything is speculation, assuming you plan to stay in H1b till you get green card and not use EAD.

As your date might be current in next couple of years anyway..

[inspired_p]

Just my POV.. nothing is certain , take the job if it is something you are lookig for. As of now everything is speculation, assuming you plan to stay in H1b till you get green card and not use EAD.

As your date might be current in next couple of years anyway..

Thank you for your POV on this. I do plan on using EAD/AP for myself and my spouse if and when we can file. That is the whole reason why I am confused. I do not want to 'miss the boat' when the "once in a generation" spillover is used, and if it happens the dates are for sure to retrogress or halt for the next couple of years
Is the unemployment due to COVID a concern ? Will it affect the new PERM application filed in the next fiscal year.

Regards
Inspired_P

[idliman]

Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

Any thoughts ?Please.

Regards
Inspired_P
You most likely will get current next year. Wait to see what happens in Oct Bulletin. If they move the DF dates, that will give you an indication. I have the opinion that if JB wins, most of the spillover will be used. If DT wins, then the admin will find some excuse to waste as much spillover as possible. So nothing is certain now.

I have alternate view that you should stay with the current job. With PERM guidelines and the current COVID situation, it will not be easy to get a PERM and I140 through quickly.

[calking1975]

Thank you for your POV on this. I do plan on using EAD/AP for myself and my spouse if and when we can file. That is the whole reason why I am confused. I do not want to 'miss the boat' when the "once in a generation" spillover is used, and if it happens the dates are for sure to retrogress or halt for the next couple of years
Is the unemployment due to COVID a concern ? Will it affect the new PERM application filed in the next fiscal year.

Regards
Inspired_P

My 2 cents..

Don't mess with Immigration or GC, Jobs are not a big concern, compared to AoS.
Even in COVID situation companies are hiring, as your date towards end of 2010, if you miss, it would like people missed in 2012 by few weeks/months, though dates may not retro too much, its better you give importance to GC over FT.
There is no guarantee FT job itself is not Permanant, companies can layoff anytime.

[inspired_p]

Thank you.




I have alternate view that you should stay with the current job. With PERM guidelines and the current COVID situation, it will not be easy to get a PERM and I140 through quickly.
Yes. That is an additional concern, a bird in hand (approved PERM) seems more valuable right now.Even the current employer is not planning on filing any PERM this year due to the unemployment situation across the country.

[inspired_p]

Thank you.

[EB2IndSep09]

Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

Any thoughts ?Please.

Regards
Inspired_P

inspired_p,
2010 seems to be far away from the current PD but don't be surprised if things do not go as you expect.

My case has been a classic example. My PD as anyone can guess EB2-I Sep2009, in 2011 took a FT position with an pre-approval and exception from big heads of the company and HR that GC will be started as soon as I join them.
The rule is to start GC only after 1 year of service at the firm. The paper work was not assigned to the attorneys for the next 4 months as HR has conveniently miss placed the approval documents and meanwhile my PD got current and I had a chance to file my AOS for 6 months but unfortunately in the poorly setup administrative process like PWD etc my PERM was not even filed and here I am after 9 years still waiting for PD to become current again to file my AOS.
Long story short I did not expect that CO gets brain fart and would move dates months and years at a time in EB2. Because of that the side effect there were many changes like two dates in the visa bulletin etc and rest is history.

Unfortunately there were some side effects in my family's life too. My spouse had to sign up for her 3rd masters at that time to keep the status, my kid who is now in college has lost many wonderful opportunities and it came to the situation now to be worried about aging out. There are numerous occasions where things would have gone better had my family had GC. Do we repent for the decision we took in 2011? Hell No. Do we have grievance for what happened and what is still happening? Of course.

I just want to throw out the worst things that happened to us so that people like you can take an informed decision. Whatever decision you take never forget that it is appropriate and is in you and your familiy's best interest in that given time.
Good luck to you!

[monsieur]

Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).


If you like new job and its good for you in long term - ACCEPT IT (sorry for caps)

I know you are worried abt once in generation spillover, but keep in mind once 2010-2011 is cleared, there is no way somebody will travel back in time and get 2010-11 Priority date, once its cleared its cleared for good. It will sucks for folks in 2012-2013 as date will not move fwd (just like for folks in late 2009). My ASSUMPTION is 2010 dates will stay current in future just as 2008 dates are post-2012 spillover party.

I switched jobs recently, knowing full well abt upcoming spillover bonanza; Perm process has started. Based on my past 6 months experience I can say P1 - Prevailing Wage (PWD) takes 2-3 months, P2 - recruitment 2 months and then (P3) actual Perm filing which is taking 4-5 months approval (start to end 10-12 months). I am in P2 stage right now, earliest I will be able to file for I-140 based on current trend is Jan 2021. I took this step as I felt long term its good for me and god willing this is indeed the case.

Its something totally on you to decide what you wanna do (based on kids age, spouse plans, for you personally - you are got offer means you are good at what you do ), stranger like me can only share their experience. :)

All the best on whatever you decide!!

[inspired_p]

inspired_p,
2010 seems to be far away from the current PD but don't be surprised if things do not go as you expect.

My case has been a classic example. My PD as anyone can guess EB2-I Sep2009, in 2011 took a FT position with an pre-approval and exception from big heads of the company and HR that GC will be started as soon as I join them.
The rule is to start GC only after 1 year of service at the firm. The paper work was not assigned to the attorneys for the next 4 months as HR has conveniently miss placed the approval documents and meanwhile my PD got current and I had a chance to file my AOS for 6 months but unfortunately in the poorly setup administrative process like PWD etc my PERM was not even filed and here I am after 9 years still waiting for PD to become current again to file my AOS.
Long story short I did not expect that CO gets brain fart and would move dates months and years at a time in EB2. Because of that the side effect there were many changes like two dates in the visa bulletin etc and rest is history.

Unfortunately there were some side effects in my family's life too. My spouse had to sign up for her 3rd masters at that time to keep the status, my kid who is now in college has lost many wonderful opportunities and it came to the situation now to be worried about aging out. There are numerous occasions where things would have gone better had my family had GC. Do we repent for the decision we took in 2011? Hell No. Do we have grievance for what happened and what is still happening? Of course.

I just want to throw out the worst things that happened to us so that people like you can take an informed decision. Whatever decision you take never forget that it is appropriate in that given time.
Good luck to you!

Thank you for sharing your story. This was very helpful. In 2013 , I too had to make a similar decision, take up a FT or stay with the then current employer, as the dates reached May 2010, I decided to stay put waiting for one more push in the next visa bulletin, and rest is history. I do look back on that decision with grievance today.
I think the best option is to stay put where i am at, get I-140 applied, and if the dates do move it would be the best decision, if they don't I would not be too far off hopefully.

[inspired_p]

If you like new job and its good for you in long term - ACCEPT IT (sorry for caps)

I know you are worried abt once in generation spillover, but keep in mind once 2010-2011 is cleared, there is no way somebody will travel back in time and get 2010-11 Priority date, once its cleared its cleared for good. It will sucks for folks in 2012-2013 as date will not move fwd (just like for folks in late 2009). My ASSUMPTION is 2010 dates will stay current in future just as 2008 dates are post-2012 spillover party.

I switched jobs recently, knowing full well abt upcoming spillover bonanza; Perm process has started. Based on my past 6 months experience I can say P1 - Prevailing Wage (PWD) takes 2-3 months, P2 - recruitment 2 months and then (P3) actual Perm filing which is taking 4-5 months approval (start to end 10-12 months). I am in P2 stage right now, earliest I will be able to file for I-140 based on current trend is Jan 2021. I took this step as I felt long term its good for me and god willing this is indeed the case.

Its something totally on you to decide what you wanna do (based on kids age, spouse plans, for you personally - you are got offer means you are good at what you do ), stranger like me can only share their experience. :)

All the best on whatever you decide!!

Thank you.

[jimmys]

Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

Any thoughts ?Please.

Regards
Inspired_P

I made the mistake of not switching my job for years believing my PD will be current this year,every year. Don't make that mistake. If you like the job, just go ahead. Your PD will be current forever after 12 months or so. So you're not losing out much if your new job makes you happy.

[Zenzone]

Thank you for your POV on this. I do plan on using EAD/AP for myself and my spouse if and when we can file. That is the whole reason why I am confused. I do not want to 'miss the boat' when the "once in a generation" spillover is used, and if it happens the dates are for sure to retrogress or halt for the next couple of years
Is the unemployment due to COVID a concern ? Will it affect the new PERM application filed in the next fiscal year.

Regards
Inspired_P

Always chase the career opportunity! If dates get current they won't retrogress for another decade...you should be in the safe zone. Good luck and god speed!

[horizon1012]

Folks,

Is this true that the fees for filing 485 will be changing from 10/02/2020 and anyone filing on or after 10/02 has to renew EAD every year. I was watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7jfqVJqYBI and it says that anyone filing on or after 10/02 has to pay $1000 extra per member and this will carry on every year until you case is pending. If this is true then it is a no brainer as to why there is a delay in the bulletin for this month.

[rabp77]

They seem to have a limited memory.

Here's the EB allocation and Use for EB back to 1993:

- FY ------ Alloc. ----- Use
FY1993 --- 161,207 --- 161,207
FY1994 --- 143,213 --- 113,783
FY1995 --- 146,503 ---- 87,809
FY1996 --- 140,000 --- 118,827
FY1997 --- 140,000 ---- 99,290
FY1998 --- 140,000 ---- 86,429
FY1999 --- 160,906 ---- 61,965
FY2000 --- 142,299 --- 111,166
FY2001 --- 192,074 --- 186,536
FY2002 --- 142,632 --- 171,583
FY2003 --- 171,532 ---- 83,020
FY2004 --- 204,422 --- 157,107
FY2005 --- 148,449 --- 242,293
FY2006 --- 143,949 --- 133,622
FY2007 --- 147,148 --- 154,460
FY2008 --- 162,704 --- 162,949
FY2009 --- 140,000 --- 140,987
FY2010 --- 150,657 --- 150,262
FY2011 --- 140,000 --- 139,302
FY2012 --- 144,951 --- 144,648
FY2013 --- 158,466 --- 161,269
FY2014 --- 150,241 --- 151,359
FY2015 --- 144,796 --- 143,954
FY2016 --- 140,338 --- 140,350
FY2017 --- 140,000 --- 139,604
FY2018 --- 140,292 --- 139,483
FY2019 --- 141,918 --- 140,586
FY2020 --- 156,253 --- ???,???

As recently as FY2008, the allocation was more than the 158k mentioned.

The maximum number of approvals in a FY during that period was in FY2005 (during visa recapture) with 242,293 approvals. The 2nd highest was in FY2001 with 186,536 approvals.

Hi Spec,

would you know why some years have a higher number of Visa used than allocated. Mostly the differnce is not much except for FY2005 where the used number is almost 100k above the allocated.

[gten20]

Priority Date Oct 2010 EB2I from previous employer(Consulting). Current employer(Consulting) has PERM approved and I-140 not applied yet. I have a opportunity to join a Full time with a third company , they will apply PERM and I-140 soon but their paralegal says the PERM approval will take more than a year ( Fiscal year Oct 2020 to Sept 2021. I will be not have I-140 to apply AOS).

This speculation of dates moving this year has put me in a confusion of waiting out with current employer and filing I-140 or take the opportunity and not expect my priority date not getting current this year.

Any thoughts ?Please.

Regards
Inspired_P


I made the mistake of not switching my job for years believing my PD will be current this year,every year. Don't make that mistake. If you like the job, just go ahead. Your PD will be current forever after 12 months or so. So you're not losing out much if your new job makes you happy.

I agree with jimmys. Even if you miss the boat, it probably wont be long before you become current again in a year or so (but of course its an unknown). With the current political environment I wont be surprised if DOS makes the date "C" for filing and a date of May 1, 2010 for Final action, but USCIS will say use Final action date stating that they don't have the bandwidth to process the paperwork and keep it at May 1, 2010 for as long as they can. You have to decide if the job offer and your projected career growth with the new job is worth the potential extra wait time. Sometimes the new employer will wait a month for you to make a decision, if you want to wait till Oct 20 something and see what happens in Nov. Visa Bulletin.

Also, if your new job is working for your employer at their site and not consulting/contracting work at a client site, I think that's a big plus point to accept the offer.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

would you know why some years have a higher number of Visa used than allocated. Mostly the difference is not much except for FY2005 where the used number is almost 100k above the allocated.
As I mentioned originally, this was a period where their was Visa Recapture.

Around 130k extra visas were approved between FY2002 and FY2007 which were recaptured in the AC21 Bill.

Not included in the figures, is an additional 50k visas that were recaptured for use by Schedule A. They were awarded in FY2005 - FY2007.

[longwaitgigu]

As I mentioned originally, this was a period where their was Visa Recapture.

Around 130k extra visas were approved between FY2002 and FY2007 which were recaptured in the AC21 Bill.

Not included in the figures, is an additional 50k visas that were recaptured for use by Schedule A. They were awarded in FY2005 - FY2007.
I was just curious spec- you have so much accurate immigration knowledge - is this your full time job or your passion
R u still seeking GC or just helping out others
If you are comfortable, you can reply otherwise I dont mind

[nbk1976]

Look at the coming month's projections till Jan/20. The dates will move rapidly. It depends on your priority date. What is your priority date?

Do you expect EB2-I FAD to move 2 months till Jan 2021? So a total of 6-month movement? My PD is Feb 10, 2010.

[prabakarb]

Do you expect EB2-I FAD to move 2 months till Jan 2021? So a total of 6-month movement? My PD is Feb 10, 2010.

I am expecting 3 months movement till Jan 2021. I believe you will be current by Jan, 2021. There are about 110K extra numbers available. CO clearly said in the bulletin that numbers exceed current demand. He is not moving the dates completely so far as USCIS cannot process them. It seems he is applying quarterly spill over. But your date is very close and I would be surprised if you are not current by January bulletin.

[abcx13]

What is the best estimate for FAD for EB2 and EB3 for this FY? 2011?

[qesehmk]

Guys ... requesting you ask questions by creating threads or searching existing threads. This thread is for calculations.

Please respect moderators time who keep these threads clean. They are all volunteers.

[Positive]

So, based on the projected inventory and the visa numbers for 2021, what dates would be current for FAD end 2021?

[rocketfast]

So, based on the projected inventory and the visa numbers for 2021, what dates would be current for FAD end 2021?

I initially thought that EB1 will give some unused numbers to EB2 (based on EB4, EB5 spillovers and low EB1-ROW applications in 2021). I no longer think that is possible.

I think EB2-I will get ~25,000 GCs (China will take extra 2800. EB2-ROW will use up its quota + some more). This should take EB2-I to around Nov/Dec 2010.

For EB3-I, with consular processing out till December, Philippines will only start producing pressure from February. Looking at trackitt data for EB3-ROW, I do feel that the demand is not a lot. So guess-estimating that EB3-I will likely end up at June 2011 (when down-porting numbers will stop it from moving forward).

[user017]

What is the prediction on retrogression of EB3 filing date after Oct? Is it possible to upgrade back to EB2 after getting EAD and AP with downgrade from EB2 to EB3?

[Zenzone]

I initially thought that EB1 will give some unused numbers to EB2 (based on EB4, EB5 spillovers and low EB1-ROW applications in 2021). I no longer think that is possible.

I think EB2-I will get ~25,000 GCs (China will take extra 2800. EB2-ROW will use up its quota + some more). This should take EB2-I to around Nov/Dec 2010.

For EB3-I, with consular processing out till December, Philippines will only start producing pressure from February. Looking at trackitt data for EB3-ROW, I do feel that the demand is not a lot. So guess-estimating that EB3-I will likely end up at June 2011 (when down-porting numbers will stop it from moving forward).

You are way too conservative here. I think EB2I and EB3I will converge somewhere around late 2011 to early 2012. I think you are overestimating the ROW demand in EB2 and EB3 and I also think some vertical SO from EB1 is still a reality. I envision 35-40K visas per category for India (if wastage is not substantial).

[longwaitgigu]

The October bulletin has said 261.,500 gcs
I think any rule passing after sept 30 should not impact 2021 FY but FY2022.
Even if Democrats take all 3 I think they cannot change Fiscal limit anymore
But if trump comes then EO extends and all CP and ROW spillover should be going to india

[gs1968]

The October bulletin has said 261.,500 gcs
I think any rule passing after sept 30 should not impact 2021 FY but FY2022.
Even if Democrats take all 3 I think they cannot change Fiscal limit anymore
But if trump comes then EO extends and all CP and ROW spillover should be going to india

I would agree. The calculation will be difficult once the visas have started to be used by the EB category. Also the 261K visas denotes availability but not necessarily a target to be met. We hope that the intent of the USCIS is to use as many of these as possible. But as mentioned earlier it would take a doubling of effort by the USCIS

[Positive]

You are way too conservative here. I think EB2I and EB3I will converge somewhere around late 2011 to early 2012. I think you are overestimating the ROW demand in EB2 and EB3 and I also think some vertical SO from EB1 is still a reality. I envision 35-40K visas per category for India (if wastage is not substantial).

My attorneys seem to have a way rosier view of things. I had asked them if there would be any issues with downgrading to EB3 for a position that required two advances degrees (JD and PhD) they came back with a ...there should not be a problem but you could wait and Eb2 will probably advance soon.... Here is their rosy interpretation, what do the experts think:

"we are also seeing some guidance that there may be additional forward advancement on the priority dates in the coming months. This past year, there were a lot of unused family-based immigrant visas due to COVID and the Presidential Proclamation (restricting overseas consulate processing) and per the regulations, those unused visas were dumped into the FY2021 limit -- which was 140,000. The unused visas that were dumped into the limit totaled 121,500, so it almost double the normal annual limit (totaling 261,500 available visas for the year). With that in mind, the language below from the visa bulletin seems to suggest that we will see more dates becoming current.

Pending demand, in the form of applications for adjustment of status, and documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants, is well below the estimated annual limit of 261,500. Adjustment of status applications filed early in FY 2021 are most likely to be adjudicated during the upcoming fiscal year.

Your approved I-140 is considered part of the “pending demand” as you are a documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicant and they are saying that the 261,500 that are in this year’s annual limit exceeds demand which would include all of the approved I-140s that are sitting out there.

We also note that the visa bulletin indicates there will be “RAPID FORWARD MOVEMENT” in all categories in the coming months. While this is no guarantee, it is a very good indication that the November and December visa bulletins will continue to see forward advancement under all categories. As such, it is possible many EB2 dates will be current soon."

I think they are certainly wrong in thinking I140 count is included in pending demand. Also, i believe the rapid movement is for the FAD not filing dates.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

My attorneys seem to have a way rosier view of things. I had asked them if there would be any issues with downgrading to EB3 for a position that required two advances degrees (JD and PhD) they came back with a ...there should not be a problem but you could wait and Eb2 will probably advance soon.... Here is their rosy interpretation, what do the experts think:

"we are also seeing some guidance that there may be additional forward advancement on the priority dates in the coming months. This past year, there were a lot of unused family-based immigrant visas due to COVID and the Presidential Proclamation (restricting overseas consulate processing) and per the regulations, those unused visas were dumped into the FY2021 limit -- which was 140,000. The unused visas that were dumped into the limit totaled 121,500, so it almost double the normal annual limit (totaling 261,500 available visas for the year). With that in mind, the language below from the visa bulletin seems to suggest that we will see more dates becoming current.

Pending demand, in the form of applications for adjustment of status, and documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicants, is well below the estimated annual limit of 261,500. Adjustment of status applications filed early in FY 2021 are most likely to be adjudicated during the upcoming fiscal year.

Your approved I-140 is considered part of the “pending demand” as you are a documentarily qualified immigrant visa applicant and they are saying that the 261,500 that are in this year’s annual limit exceeds demand which would include all of the approved I-140s that are sitting out there.

We also note that the visa bulletin indicates there will be “RAPID FORWARD MOVEMENT” in all categories in the coming months. While this is no guarantee, it is a very good indication that the November and December visa bulletins will continue to see forward advancement under all categories. As such, it is possible many EB2 dates will be current soon."

I think they are certainly wrong in thinking I140 count is included in pending demand. Also, i believe the rapid movement is for the FAD not filing dates.

Similar feedback from my attorney too. Regarding my PD of May 2010, she thinks it may be current in the next 4-5 bulletins.

[pramod]

Assuming all/most spillover (FB 2019-20 numbers) going to India and based on available data (PERM, I-140, pending applications etc.), any educated guess on where could EB2I end up by Sep2021? Is it even possible to estimate at this point?
Thank you

[rocketfast]

You are way too conservative here. I think EB2I and EB3I will converge somewhere around late 2011 to early 2012. I think you are overestimating the ROW demand in EB2 and EB3 and I also think some vertical SO from EB1 is still a reality. I envision 35-40K visas per category for India (if wastage is not substantial).

Irrational exuberance :) Another reason I am saying that there is 25K visa availability for EB2-I is by seeing that the FAD has moved by 2 months for Oct 2020 to September 1. If you see the last I-485 inventory, it shows 2000 demand for those 2 months (july, august). And you multiply it by 12 future months, you get ~25K.

But then again, one can also argue that only half of June 2009 is cleared so far (trackitt google doc for July bulletin). So, that leaves 2700 demand for oct 2020. you multiply it by 12 months, you get 32,400.

[EB2June2010]

Hello everyone, I have been a longtime reader and posting for the first time.

I am looking at I-485 inventory report from Jan 2018 (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Employment-based_I-485_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_January_2 018.pdf), specifically for the EB2-I numbers. Is there a later one (could not easily find it)? Is it fair to assume that all cases up to June 2009 would be cleared since those dates were current for the last few months? If so, can we consider that there are ~4500 I-485 adjudicated applications already with USCIS that can consume a visa number as those dates become current, starting Oct 2020. Also, do these I-485 numbers include dependents or do we need to multiple by 2.2 (or whatever multiple) to get the potential visa demand?

I am just trying to go over the numbers to see what the known (excluding PWMBs) demand is. If the demand is just ~4500 or (4500 * 2.2 = ~10000), then one can use that as the basis and make assumptions about PWMB numbers and see when dates beyond April 2010 may become current in the next year.

Can someone validate my numbers, assumptions, and understanding?

[EB2IndSep09]

Assuming all/most spillover (FB 2019-20 numbers) going to India and based on available data (PERM, I-140, pending applications etc.), any educated guess on where could EB2I end up by Sep2021? Is it even possible to estimate at this point?
Thank you

I think your question is related to FA dates..
After revising the procedures for determining visa availability for applicants waiting to file, start of every fiscal year DOS estimates or at least supposed to estimate where the FA dates could end up based on the available number of visa for that fiscal year and moves the DFF to that date. Being said that, are the dates going to move to May 2011 and Jan 2015? depends on many factors like how many USCIS is going to process, how many people are having their status ready to file AOS etc.

[trackitgc]

With the reduced load from family visa's I do believe USCIS should be able to process a lot of the surge applications sooner than expected. What do you guys think ?

[gs1968]

With the reduced load from family visa's I do believe USCIS should be able to process a lot of the surge applications sooner than expected. What do you guys think ?

It is possible and as I mentioned in a previous post everything depends on the election outcome. If the democrats win and we have a President Biden the travel ban will be lifted. One can expect aggressive movement of Family based filing dates to make up for the time lost this year. The first step of the application process for both IR category and FB is the I-130 which is the responsibility of the USCIS.After that the NVC and DoS take over. We should also not forget that due to the continuing visa ban till December 31 2020 there will be roughly an extra 60000 FB visas which will be wasted and they will move dates hard to accomodate. To process 260K EB visas the USCIS should increase its processing capacity by 80 % for the EB category alone. If one is backlogged the dream situation would be a Trump win with the travel ban extended and FB visas continue to flow into EB

[idliman]

If one is backlogged the dream situation would be a Trump win with the travel ban extended and FB visas continue to flow into EB
Thanks a lot for explaining the scenarios on the legislative front. I respectfully disagree on your views. What's the use of more visas in paper when an admin (Stephen Miller) is finding creative ways to waste them. What happened to the 25K GC visas in 2020 that somehow vanished into thin air? Based on the past, they will even go to the extent of furloughing USCIS staff to stop / reduce immigration. I believe that a Biden win increase the chances of more utilization of available spillover. This spillover is a once in a generation type event. I cannot comment on legislation (new bills like Grace amendment) that might prevent this. So I think, JB win will help us a lot.

Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized.

A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush

[gs1968]

Thanks a lot for explaining the scenarios on the legislative front. I respectfully disagree on your views. What's the use of more visas in paper when an admin (Stephen Miller) is finding creative ways to waste them. What happened to the 25K GC visas in 2020 that somehow vanished into thin air? Based on the past, they will even go to the extent of furloughing USCIS staff to stop / reduce immigration. I believe that a Biden win increase the chances of more utilization of available spillover. This spillover is a once in a generation type event. I cannot comment on legislation (new bills like Grace amendment) that might prevent this. So I think, JB win will help us a lot.

Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized.

A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush

I apologize if I came across as imposing any political views. Your angle of reasoning also sounds logical. I think USCIS did a very smart move by aligning with DoS and having the same dates.This eliminated the risk of blowback and also any threat of litigation. I also agree that visa issuance will be slow walked in the first 3 months of the upcoming FY21 as the Trump administration will still be calling the shots.

Your last statement "Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized." sums it up perfectly. USCIS needs to show extreme good intent and determination for these kind of numbers to be processed and utilized
Again I apologize for my lack of clarity in the last post

[idliman]

I apologize if I came across as imposing any political views. Your angle of reasoning also sounds logical. I think USCIS did a very smart move by aligning with DoS and having the same dates.This eliminated the risk of blowback and also any threat of litigation. I also agree that visa issuance will be slow walked in the first 3 months of the upcoming FY21 as the Trump administration will still be calling the shots.

Your last statement "Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized." sums it up perfectly. USCIS needs to show extreme good intent and determination for these kind of numbers to be processed and utilized
Again I apologize for my lack of clarity in the last post
We all wish for the same thing. We want our PDs to move and people not to suffer because of backlog. This forum and I had immensely benefited from your analyses and insights. Even though our paths and thoughts are different (karma-marga vs jnan-marga vs bhakti-marga), they all lead to final emancipation (moksha).

Even though I wished JB to win (for the reasons mentioned above), I am not sure how things will turn out if he wins all three (House, Senate and Presidency). Maybe another DT term is not a bad thing (if democrats win House and Senate). Checks and balances on both sides.

[vbollu]

Thanks a lot for explaining the scenarios on the legislative front. I respectfully disagree on your views. What's the use of more visas in paper when an admin (Stephen Miller) is finding creative ways to waste them. What happened to the 25K GC visas in 2020 that somehow vanished into thin air? Based on the past, they will even go to the extent of furloughing USCIS staff to stop / reduce immigration. I believe that a Biden win increase the chances of more utilization of available spillover. This spillover is a once in a generation type event. I cannot comment on legislation (new bills like Grace amendment) that might prevent this. So I think, JB win will help us a lot.

Having seen the numerous lobbies against back loggers, I feel that we should not be be greedy. We should take whatever is available pray that it is utilized.

A Bird in the Hand is Worth Two in the Bush


I don't agree with this analysis, democrats are much worse than stephen miller or any other racist in terms of legal immigration. we have seen this issue in I-140 ead, 2015 visa bulletin fiasco, senator durbin flip flops on s386. If democrat party president is in place of trump shoe could he halted family immigration in first place? trump took bold decision and it got helped at least EB Indian immigrants, other wise we could have got struck in another 20 years to get at least EAD. in my opinion all Indian immigrants who got benefited from this bulletin must say thanks to the current adminstration and in process if we loose few more GC's then still okay when large section of people getting benifit from it in first place.

[qesehmk]

If the democrats win and we have a President Biden the travel ban will be lifted. One can expect aggressive movement of Family based filing dates to make up for the time lost this year.

gs - you are too smart to not know that the reason of FB under utilization is consulate closures due to COVID. Nothing to do with travel ban. But I do agree that if Trump wins he will continue to keep the consulates closed (the reason is two fold - 1. it keeps the FB immigration down. 2. it keeps the DOS business down which the anti-globalist crowd hates).

It's funny how trump think COVID is hoax and yet for exactly same reason he has kept consulates closed.

[gs1968]

gs - you are too smart to not know that the reason of FB under utilization is consulate closures due to COVID. Nothing to do with travel ban. But I do agree that if Trump wins he will continue to keep the consulates closed (the reason is two fold - 1. it keeps the FB immigration down. 2. it keeps the DOS business down which the anti-globalist crowd hates).

It's funny how trump think COVID is hoax and yet for exactly same reason he has kept consulates closed.

You are right Q-my mistake The two things happened so close to each other that it was hard for me to separate one from the other. I think the consulates are slowly opening up although for limited emergency services only. As vbollu mentioned the ability to downgrade and file to EB3 category and get an EAD can be a game changer. I read on another forum recently about someone that is still on EAD/AP for 8 years now and how he has furthered his life significantly. I hope many employers allow and support the downgrades because they know about the portability option for the employee once approved. The icing on the cake would be if the USCIS started honoring the Filing dates to lock in the child age out protection instead of the FAD. This continues to be the major problem for families who are here on H-1B/H4 with children born abroad.

[newyorker123]

Can somebody roughly give an idea of possible FAD/Filing date trends for EB2/EB3 in coming 1-2years ?

Specifically interested about FAD. Any hope in sight for 2011/2012 dates in next 1-2 years, or is it still going to languish in 2009-10 ?

For Filing date, I guess as per messages I see that EB3 might retrogress in the next 1-2 years, and EB2 might improve, until they are sort-of close by to each other.

[qesehmk]

You are right Q-my mistake The two things happened so close to each other that it was hard for me to separate one from the other. I think the consulates are slowly opening up although for limited emergency services only. As vbollu mentioned the ability to downgrade and file to EB3 category and get an EAD can be a game changer. I read on another forum recently about someone that is still on EAD/AP for 8 years now and how he has furthered his life significantly. I hope many employers allow and support the downgrades because they know about the portability option for the employee once approved. The icing on the cake would be if the USCIS started honoring the Filing dates to lock in the child age out protection instead of the FAD. This continues to be the major problem for families who are here on H-1B/H4 with children born abroad.

I knew that you knew!

Yes indeed, ability to file 485 would be quite life changing. The aging out is going to be a huge problem and I think whichever administration comes next, the country cap bill must be furthered with a singular focus on the needs of backlogged folks rather than mixing up Indian and American right wing politics.

[srimurthy]

I knew that you knew!

Yes indeed, ability to file 485 would be quite life changing. The aging out is going to be a huge problem and I think whichever administration comes next, the country cap bill must be furthered with a singular focus on the needs of backlogged folks rather than mixing up Indian and American right wing politics.

I agree Q, in all this situation one should not ignore the Country Cap bill. Until that gets approved, everything is a stop gap and arbitrary reliefs but the problem still persists.

[Zenzone]

Can somebody roughly give an idea of possible FAD/Filing date trends for EB2/EB3 in coming 1-2years ?

Specifically interested about FAD. Any hope in sight for 2011/2012 dates in next 1-2 years, or is it still going to languish in 2009-10 ?

For Filing date, I guess as per messages I see that EB3 might retrogress in the next 1-2 years, and EB2 might improve, until they are sort-of close by to each other.

My estimate is both EB2 and EB3 FAD would converge in mid to late 2011 by the end of this fiscal.

[sjayanthi]

Thank you all for sharing a lot of different insights, super valuable. I am in a much different situation. After waiting for about 10 years ( EB2 PD April 2011, have MS and MBA from USA ) we decided to move to Canada couple months ago [beginning of Aug, 2020] for an international assignment. Now based on Oct bulletin, my PD is "current" under DOF. The debate we are having is, when consulates open, should we try to come back to USA and file under EB2 or wait for 6 more months and try to aim for EB1 C. Any inputs from this community will definitely help me make an educated decision. Thanks in advance.

[qesehmk]

I agree Q, in all this situation one should not ignore the Country Cap bill. Until that gets approved, everything is a stop gap and arbitrary reliefs but the problem still persists.
Absolutely. And once country caps are dashed then Americans and the lawmakers will realize how significantly immigration levels are in mismatch with the levels of foreign labor. That mismatch is what causes exploitation of slave labor as well as American labor.

[qesehmk]

Thank you all for sharing a lot of different insights, super valuable. I am in a much different situation. After waiting for about 10 years ( EB2 PD April 2011, have MS and MBA from USA ) we decided to move to Canada couple months ago [beginning of Aug, 2020] for an international assignment. Now based on Oct bulletin, my PD is "current" under DOF. The debate we are having is, when consulates open, should we try to come back to USA and file under EB2 or wait for 6 more months and try to aim for EB1 C. Any inputs from this community will definitely help me make an educated decision. Thanks in advance.
Without any doubt don't come back just for 485. File CP. Earn the foreign assignment credit with the employer and come back on a much bigger position as well as right to EB1C. Good luck.

[Justmyself]

EB3I March 2011 here. Do you guys suggest doing medicals now or waiting for The interview/RFE?

[alpha0]

EB3I March 2011 here. Do you guys suggest doing medicals now or waiting for The interview/RFE?

You are very likely to get GC in next 2 yrs, so submit medicals now with 485. That way, if they decide to waive your interview, you dont have to face any RFE delay.

[idliman]

I don't agree with this analysis, democrats are much worse than stephen miller or any other racist in terms of legal immigration. we have seen this issue in I-140 ead, 2015 visa bulletin fiasco, senator durbin flip flops on s386. If democrat party president is in place of trump shoe could he halted family immigration in first place? trump took bold decision and it got helped at least EB Indian immigrants, other wise we could have got struck in another 20 years to get at least EAD. in my opinion all Indian immigrants who got benefited from this bulletin must say thanks to the current adminstration and in process if we loose few more GC's then still okay when large section of people getting benifit from it in first place.
I agree that it is because of the Trump EO side-effects that we got this record spillover from FB to EB. It is great for people who are waiting for an EAD. Myself and my spouse had benefited from the AOS EAD since 2012, as do numerous folks till May 2010. Please note that the DF based EAD will not prevent age-out of kids. However, what I was saying was that this spillover is only in paper. If two years of Indian Backlog clears, then DT would have done more to the backlog than what #43 and #44 did for EB immigrants. It is my personal opinion that most of the spillover will be wasted using some excuse (I will be very happy if I am wrong and most including myself get their GCs).

You keep talking as if that only Sen Durbin killed S386. Yes, he played a big role in it. Ultimately it was killed by Rick Scott / Republicans with S. Miller standing in the shadows. I was saying for a long time that at the last-minute DT can call a southern Senator and put a hold. Sadly, that’s what happened. Before Durbin, it was Sen Grassley. It can easily be Sen Cotton. Someone either from R’s or D’s had always shown up to kill Fairness Bill.

So, if you want to support DT for the purpose of giving a lot of people EAD’s accidentally, I have no problems with it. It is the truth.

I know that many of you are optimistic about some kind of immigration reform. I have been waiting since 2009, however to my limited knowledge there is no chance of anything happening on the immigration front. Immigration is considered a losing case and there is less appetite to take it up in the first term of any new president. Everyone in the world other than Indians are benefiting from country cap. It will be impossible to get rid of it (without a CIR).

I don’t think you or I were wrong. It is just the optics. Supporting D’s or R’s does not mean anything. Historically R’s have supported legal immigration. However, this time R’s have aligned with white nationalists that hate Brown skinned folks. Peace.

[vedu]

I agree that it is because of the Trump EO side-effects that we got this record spillover from FB to EB. It is great for people who are waiting for an EAD. Myself and my spouse had benefited from the AOS EAD since 2012, as do numerous folks till May 2010. Please note that the DF based EAD will not prevent age-out of kids. However, what I was saying was that this spillover is only in paper. If two years of Indian Backlog clears, then DT would have done more to the backlog than what #43 and #44 did for EB immigrants. It is my personal opinion that most of the spillover will be wasted using some excuse (I will be very happy if I am wrong and most including myself get their GCs).

You keep talking as if that only Sen Durbin killed S386. Yes, he played a big role in it. Ultimately it was killed by Rick Scott / Republicans with S. Miller standing in the shadows. I was saying for a long time that at the last-minute DT can call a southern Senator and put a hold. Sadly, that’s what happened. Before Durbin, it was Sen Grassley. It can easily be Sen Cotton. Someone either from R’s or D’s had always shown up to kill Fairness Bill.

So, if you want to support DT for the purpose of giving a lot of people EAD’s accidentally, I have no problems with it. It is the truth.

I know that many of you are optimistic about some kind of immigration reform. I have been waiting since 2009, however to my limited knowledge there is no chance of anything happening on the immigration front. Immigration is considered a losing case and there is less appetite to take it up in the first term of any new president. Everyone in the world other than Indians are benefiting from country cap. It will be impossible to get rid of it (without a CIR).

I don’t think you or I were wrong. It is just the optics. Supporting D’s or R’s does not mean anything. Historically R’s have supported legal immigration. However, this time R’s have aligned with white nationalists that hate Brown skinned folks. Peace.

Idliman,

So you basically don't trust the official words in October Visa Bulletin, "RAPID FORWARD MOVEMENT" in coming months (?) You can downgrade from EB2 to EB3 by filing premium I140 application which will be approved in 15 days. Your priority date is current under EB3 and you can get GC without any further wait.

[vedu]

@vedu, I myself would be very happy if I am proven wrong. I don't doubt that the regular 140K will be used up, it's the SO part that I am worried about because they will give some excuse to not honor it. Already you can see breitbart articles terming the SO as a giveaway/handout.

Vsivarama,

Do you still have distrust about SO? OR are you getting ready to turn in your application?

[vedu]

Just makes me so mad... what other evidence is needed? They can simply deny this and will not be held accountable if visas get wasted.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
@ReichlinMelnick
.
@RepZoeLofgren
: "Let me just be frank. Members of my staff have recieved information from USCIS employees indicating that DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin. Do you have any knowledge of that?"

Edlow says no.

This time it doesn't look like that the DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin.

[Tandav]

I would be happy if proven wrong. True,This time the political head has not interfered. The reason is this:
The agency is running out of money and needs the money desperately. The best way to ensure the funding for the next 4 years is:
a) increase the fee
b) honor the filing date and bring in thousands of I-485 applications
c) collect money for I-485, EAD AP
d) give the EAD/AP with 1 year validity and keep generating income every year when they are due for renewals
e) give some reason or other after every bulletin for not moving the final action date
f) keep renewing the EAD/AP that would bring enough money

The h1b extension is once in 3 year affair where as the EAD can be every year or every other year. Does it make sense?..

[vedu]

I would be happy if proven wrong. True,This time the political head has not interfered. The reason is this:
The agency is running out of money and needs the money desperately. The best way to ensure the funding for the next 4 years is:
a) increase the fee
b) honor the filing date and bring in thousands of I-485 applications
c) collect money for I-485, EAD AP
d) give the EAD/AP with 1 year validity and keep generating income every year when they are due for renewals
e) give some reason or other after every bulletin for not moving the final action date
f) keep renewing the EAD/AP that would bring enough money

The h1b extension is once in 3 year affair where as the EAD can be every year or every other year. Does it make sense?..

I am just responding to the forum members' posts from 1-2 months ago. I will respond to your post in 2-3 months, I promise!!;) By the way, you can also downgrade from EB2 to EB3 by applying Premium I-140 application which will be approved in 15 days. Your priority date is current in EB3 and you can get your GC without any further wait. Why wait when there is no hope?

[richie.rich]

Not sure if you guys are aware, Upgrades and Downgrades are not eligible for Premium, if you are filing I-140 with old PERM application.

Please take legal advise with immigration attorney, if you want to know more.

[vedu]

Not sure if you guys are aware, Upgrades and Downgrades are not eligible for Premium, if you are filing I-140 with old PERM application.

Please take legal advise with immigration attorney, if you want to know more.

That's good to know. What is the processing time for regular I-140 application these days? I am myself considering that option if my PD becomes current under EB3 next month.

[LeoAugust]

I am planning to downgrade. Just wish to know how long this trend for EB3 is going to continue and Do you see any chance of EB2 filling dates moving forward?

[vsivarama]

Vsivarama,

Do you still have distrust about SO? OR are you getting ready to turn in your application?

I will turn in my application all right. I am a pragmatist whose conclusions are driven by reasons and logic. It's same reason why I DO NOT for a second think, this admin has suddenly had an epiphany and wants to atone for it's past errant ways and hence granting this opportunity to us. They can always come up with creative ways to add more hurdles to make the rest of the process as cumbersome as possible. I have been on H1 all this while and I have seen how shifty the rules have been around the extension process in the last 4 years. I will be expecting the same here after the rest of the way if the status quo continues. But to answer you, Yes, I am happy that I was wrong.

[vsivarama]

That's good to know. What is the processing time for regular I-140 application these days? I am myself considering that option if my PD becomes current under EB3 next month.

It's 5 to 7 months as per USCIS timelines.

[bluelabel]

I would be happy if proven wrong. True,This time the political head has not interfered. The reason is this:
The agency is running out of money and needs the money desperately. The best way to ensure the funding for the next 4 years is:
a) increase the fee
b) honor the filing date and bring in thousands of I-485 applications
c) collect money for I-485, EAD AP
d) give the EAD/AP with 1 year validity and keep generating income every year when they are due for renewals
e) give some reason or other after every bulletin for not moving the final action date
f) keep renewing the EAD/AP that would bring enough money

The h1b extension is once in 3 year affair where as the EAD can be every year or every other year. Does it make sense?..

Why do you pay for EAD/AP renewal? It's free if you pay the increased I-485 fee after 2007. In fact USICS lose time on resources if they have to renew EAD/AP renewals every other year.

[bloddy1]

Hi All - Has anyone applied for and were approved for a new PERM petition? I heard there are significant delays in getting PERM approvals ranging almost over 8 months. Any recent experience here in this group - both positive or negative?

[AC_1980]

Question for all the gurus:
PD July 2009 EB2-India filed for I-485 in Feb 2012. We received RFE on Aug 2020 (I-485J, medicals, G-325A) that my lawyer just responded to as part of AC-21 response (I last changed job in Aug 2018). My wife (PD EB2-India NIW has PD Dec 2010) is current to file for I-485 in Oct.

Is there an interview requirement for I-485 filed in 2012 but a subsequent I-485J filed now to respond to RFE? If so how long does the interview process typically take? We are trying to determine if my wife should file for her I-485 at the moment or not.

Any advice/ help is appreciated.

[redsox2009]

I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

Aim of this post is to create some awareness.

My advice to any person who are applying for new 485, I recommend to get it done before Oct 2nd 2020, if you miss that dead line then try to meet Oct 12th, if you miss the Oct 12th timeline then Oct 31st. (Why oct 2nd and Oct 11t, read USCIS news you will undersatnd.) (If you filed your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, after Feb. 24, 2020, you may be required to file Form I-944, Declaration of Self-Sufficiency. If we receive a Form I-485 before Oct. 13, 2020, that does not have all required forms and evidence, we will request any missing forms and evidence. After Oct. 13, 2020, we will reject your Form I-485 if you do not include the required forms and evidence with Form I-485 at the time of filing)

Coming to new Filing dates, I doubt these dates will last till Decemeber 2020. If not by next month dates might retrogress.

If US embassies around the world are opened then the GC consumption at the emabassies will be high, PHILIPPINES and MEXICO will consume more EB3 and South Korea will consume more at EB2/EB3 categories. These countries might consume close to 10K, these numbers are derived from previous years usage.

For Year 2021, there are 261K Visas avaliable for EB categeory and 226K Visas avaliable for FB categeory. 7% of these Visas it is close to 34k.

Close to 90K(Primary and dependents) EB1 Indians are eagerly waiting to apply, and No EB1 Indians has applied whose dates are beyond 2018 March. (Direct Source:- https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_app_by_country_FY2015-2020_Q1_Q2.pdf)

Close to 300K applicants are eligible to apply under EB3 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals from May 2011 to Jan 1st 2015 and mutiply by 2.5 numbers)

Close to 130K applicants under EB2 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals and mutiply by 2)

If you have chance to apply 485 and if you miss this chance and if embassies opens up and embassies runs business as normal, it might take close to 10/15 years for these dates to become current again.


If you apply 485 in OCT, and your application might be tocuched sometime in March/April next year as the processing time for 485 application is minmun 6 months now it can go upto 9 months. You need to keep an eye how COVID is behaving around that time of the year and Also Economical and Political issues.

Many companies are trying to discourage to downgrade the applications, Please use every avaliable means/resources to apply 485 before OCT 2nd or OCT 12th or OCT 31st, but please try to apply AS FAST AS you can.


More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If the admin comes back, you will see massive changes in H1 rules that will make it a very high bar. At that time, having a EAD with it's job portability and not needing to go through the H1 process and especially stamping will seem a lot better.

[incredible]

Question for all the gurus:
PD July 2009 EB2-India filed for I-485 in Feb 2012. We received RFE on Aug 2020 (I-485J, medicals, G-325A) that my lawyer just responded to as part of AC-21 response (I last changed job in Aug 2018). My wife (PD EB2-India NIW has PD Dec 2010) is current to file for I-485 in Oct.

Is there an interview requirement for I-485 filed in 2012 but a subsequent I-485J filed now to respond to RFE? If so how long does the interview process typically take? We are trying to determine if my wife should file for her I-485 at the moment or not.

Any advice/ help is appreciated.

No interview requirement for I485 filed back in 2012. By the way Supplement J will suffice now a days, there is no AC 21 response as such though. If you and your spouse already have EAD/AP (from 2012), there is no need to file I485 again for your spouse. Most probably you both will be greened in the coming days.

[sudiva]

I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

Aim of this post is to create some awareness...........................

More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.
Great analysis and advise. Thank you and appreciate your time in putting this together. I have a question, is "i485 suppliment J" a must to submit along with new "adjustment of status" petition? The company attorney is digging in to the papers of my perm and i140 filings from 8 years ago. I think it will take time to find them and translate to "i485 suppliment J" form. Thank you.

[vedu]

I will turn in my application all right. I am a pragmatist whose conclusions are driven by reasons and logic. It's same reason why I DO NOT for a second think, this admin has suddenly had an epiphany and wants to atone for it's past errant ways and hence granting this opportunity to us. They can always come up with creative ways to add more hurdles to make the rest of the process as cumbersome as possible. I have been on H1 all this while and I have seen how shifty the rules have been around the extension process in the last 4 years. I will be expecting the same here after the rest of the way if the status quo continues. But to answer you, Yes, I am happy that I was wrong.

It was not my intention to pick on anybody. But just wanted to point out that whatever this admin is doing/did ends up in helping people in backlog. As I previously said, in the absence of any legislation, "GOOD" is "BAD", and "BAD" is "GOOD" here. No matter how many hurdles they throw at us, they will never be able to deny H1B or GC to a well qualified applicant like you. There are enough checks and balances in the system. But thinking that a legislation will happen in near future and help people in backlog is a pipe dream.

In all likelihood, we are done for the filing dates progression for this year. But if the ban on outside FB continues, there will more SO available next year, and filing dates can significantly advance in year 2022, almost to the point of being current, and can help a lot more deserving people like you.

[newyorker123]

Thanks Redsox for your analysis. It seems to me that a lot depends on FB categories opening up, and embassies opening up.
Has this process started already ? The following page indicates that international offices are almost all closed: https://www.uscis.gov/about-us/uscis-office-closings

[vedu]

I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

Aim of this post is to create some awareness.

My advice to any person who are applying for new 485, I recommend to get it done before Oct 2nd 2020, if you miss that dead line then try to meet Oct 12th, if you miss the Oct 12th timeline then Oct 31st. (Why oct 2nd and Oct 11t, read USCIS news you will undersatnd.) (If you filed your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, after Feb. 24, 2020, you may be required to file Form I-944, Declaration of Self-Sufficiency. If we receive a Form I-485 before Oct. 13, 2020, that does not have all required forms and evidence, we will request any missing forms and evidence. After Oct. 13, 2020, we will reject your Form I-485 if you do not include the required forms and evidence with Form I-485 at the time of filing)

Coming to new Filing dates, I doubt these dates will last till Decemeber 2020. If not by next month dates might retrogress.

If US embassies around the world are opened then the GC consumption at the emabassies will be high, PHILIPPINES and MEXICO will consume more EB3 and South Korea will consume more at EB2/EB3 categories. These countries might consume close to 10K, these numbers are derived from previous years usage.

For Year 2021, there are 261K Visas avaliable for EB categeory and 226K Visas avaliable for FB categeory. 7% of these Visas it is close to 34k.

Close to 90K(Primary and dependents) EB1 Indians are eagerly waiting to apply, and No EB1 Indians has applied whose dates are beyond 2018 March. (Direct Source:- https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_app_by_country_FY2015-2020_Q1_Q2.pdf)

Close to 300K applicants are eligible to apply under EB3 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals from May 2011 to Jan 1st 2015 and mutiply by 2.5 numbers)

Close to 130K applicants under EB2 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals and mutiply by 2)

If you have chance to apply 485 and if you miss this chance and if embassies opens up and embassies runs business as normal, it might take close to 10/15 years for these dates to become current again.


If you apply 485 in OCT, and your application might be tocuched sometime in March/April next year as the processing time for 485 application is minmun 6 months now it can go upto 9 months. You need to keep an eye how COVID is behaving around that time of the year and Also Economical and Political issues.

Many companies are trying to discourage to downgrade the applications, Please use every avaliable means/resources to apply 485 before OCT 2nd or OCT 12th or OCT 31st, but please try to apply AS FAST AS you can.


More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.

This is such a great advice! In general, when it comes to any type of immigration application including RFEs, you should submit them ASAP, on the very first day you are eligible to file so. That is the only thing you can control, and you must not take chances.

There will be lots of RFEs to respond this year. The faster you can do it, better it is for you and people waiting in line behind you. That is the only thing we can control to ensure as much utilization of SO as possible. So, Don't be Lazy and ACT FAST on those RFEs. Maybe in some cases, having your medicals ready is not a bad idea. It is very important for us to put a ton of work ready to process on the tables of those government employees who look at every opportunity to sit idle and not do their job efficiently.

[shriny]

I haven't posted any post for long time i.e. since June 2020.

Aim of this post is to create some awareness.

My advice to any person who are applying for new 485, I recommend to get it done before Oct 2nd 2020, if you miss that dead line then try to meet Oct 12th, if you miss the Oct 12th timeline then Oct 31st. (Why oct 2nd and Oct 11t, read USCIS news you will undersatnd.) (If you filed your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, after Feb. 24, 2020, you may be required to file Form I-944, Declaration of Self-Sufficiency. If we receive a Form I-485 before Oct. 13, 2020, that does not have all required forms and evidence, we will request any missing forms and evidence. After Oct. 13, 2020, we will reject your Form I-485 if you do not include the required forms and evidence with Form I-485 at the time of filing)

Coming to new Filing dates, I doubt these dates will last till Decemeber 2020. If not by next month dates might retrogress.

If US embassies around the world are opened then the GC consumption at the emabassies will be high, PHILIPPINES and MEXICO will consume more EB3 and South Korea will consume more at EB2/EB3 categories. These countries might consume close to 10K, these numbers are derived from previous years usage.

For Year 2021, there are 261K Visas avaliable for EB categeory and 226K Visas avaliable for FB categeory. 7% of these Visas it is close to 34k.

Close to 90K(Primary and dependents) EB1 Indians are eagerly waiting to apply, and No EB1 Indians has applied whose dates are beyond 2018 March. (Direct Source:- https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/I140_app_by_country_FY2015-2020_Q1_Q2.pdf)

Close to 300K applicants are eligible to apply under EB3 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals from May 2011 to Jan 1st 2015 and mutiply by 2.5 numbers)

Close to 130K applicants under EB2 Indian Categoery. (Check Perm approvals and mutiply by 2)

If you have chance to apply 485 and if you miss this chance and if embassies opens up and embassies runs business as normal, it might take close to 10/15 years for these dates to become current again.


If you apply 485 in OCT, and your application might be tocuched sometime in March/April next year as the processing time for 485 application is minmun 6 months now it can go upto 9 months. You need to keep an eye how COVID is behaving around that time of the year and Also Economical and Political issues.

Many companies are trying to discourage to downgrade the applications, Please use every avaliable means/resources to apply 485 before OCT 2nd or OCT 12th or OCT 31st, but please try to apply AS FAST AS you can.


More Analysis to follow and will be flowing as I come with more analysis.




Thank you so much for the post, really helpful



My attorney suggested to send the I485 without medicals, got a message something like this

During this time of USCIS delays, most attorneys are not submitting 485 applications with medicals. Medicals have a short validity window and if they are not processed quickly enough they will be considered expired by USCIS and rejected.


What will happen in this situation is when you receive your interview notice, you will be asked to bring the I-693 medical forms with you to the interview. Once you know the date of your interview, it is at that time that you would schedule your medical appointment.

Is it better to submit I-485 without medicals so the application can be submitted earlier, in my case PD is Aug 2020 EB2?

[redsox2009]

If new I-140 is being filled then you don't need or else it is advised to submit now.

[redsox2009]

I second your attorney's suggestion, if you go for medicals to get the report back into your hands it might take close to 7 days. You are wasting 7 precious days and if the attorney finalizes before your medicals, you are making them hold the application.

If your priority date is beyond 2010 for EB2 and Beyond 2011 for EB3, my suggestion is to hold the medicals.

[redsox2009]

Thank you so much for the post, really helpful



My attorney suggested to send the I485 without medicals, got a message something like this

During this time of USCIS delays, most attorneys are not submitting 485 applications with medicals. Medicals have a short validity window and if they are not processed quickly enough they will be considered expired by USCIS and rejected.


What will happen in this situation is when you receive your interview notice, you will be asked to bring the I-693 medical forms with you to the interview. Once you know the date of your interview, it is at that time that you would schedule your medical appointment.

Is it better to submit I-485 without medicals so the application can be submitted earlier, in my case PD is Aug 2020 EB2?



I second your attorney's suggestion, if you go for medicals to get the report back into your hands it might take close to 7 days. You are wasting 7 precious days and if the attorney finalizes before your medicals, you are making them hold the application.

If your priority date is beyond 2010 for EB2 and Beyond 2011 for EB3, my suggestion is to hold the medicals.

[shriny]

I second your attorney's suggestion, if you go for medicals to get the report back into your hands it might take close to 7 days. You are wasting 7 precious days and if the attorney finalizes before your medicals, you are making them hold the application.

If your priority date is beyond 2010 for EB2 and Beyond 2011 for EB3, my suggestion is to hold the medicals.

Excellent, thank you!

[geniusmag]

Gurus,
I have a question regarding EVL ( now called SUPPJ). I filed I485 in 2012 when I was still with petitioning employer .
I got my last RFE in 2016 , ( was with employer B ) at that time there was no SUPPJ , so I sent an EVL from my new employer (B) in response to the "same or similar occupation" RFE.

I have changed jobs twice since then but did not voluntarily submit SUPPJ. If I now go back to my original employer (A) who filed my I140 , do I need to port it back ? Would I still need a SUPPJ ?

[newyorker123]

I applied for I485 last year, it was denied (long story).
Can someone confirm if I can somehow use the same medicals for my next I485 filing later this year ? The medical should still be valid, right ?

[Zenzone]

I second your attorney's suggestion, if you go for medicals to get the report back into your hands it might take close to 7 days. You are wasting 7 precious days and if the attorney finalizes before your medicals, you are making them hold the application.

If your priority date is beyond 2010 for EB2 and Beyond 2011 for EB3, my suggestion is to hold the medicals.

I agree. My PD is Jan 2011 (EB2) and I'm holding off on medicals at least as yet. But remember many corporate attorneys are backed up already. I agree that you don't want to have the ball in your court as much as possible. So providing all documents ASAP can't hurt as such.

[geniusmag]

I applied for I485 last year, it was denied (long story).
Can someone confirm if I can somehow use the same medicals for my next I485 filing later this year ? The medical should still be valid, right ?
Probably not. AFAIK, You need to submit within 60 days of the doctor signing . Would be good idea to redo fresh medicals.