EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[rocketfast]

I do not want to attribute this to conspiracy theories, but there is something fishy going on. Either the administration has given mandate to the agencies to harm EB India or there is some sort of a collusion between the agencies and immigration lawyers. Again, I do not want to believe this, but I don't see a logical explanation.

Based on last executive action, a lot of future action items listed came from CIS talking points. CIS has clearly separated EB1 from EB2/EB3 in their talking points. I do believe that there is an effort to not harm EB1. And an effort to look down on EB2-I and EB3-I.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

It's out in the open now...

(((Greg Siskind)))
@gsiskind
I was a speaker this morning on a seminar, but just got alerted to some news from the House Judiciary Committee hearing with USCIS. Zoe Lofgren said she was told that DHS political appointees set the Visa Bulletin Employment-based dates in the July Visa bulletin. h/t
@ejtaub
9:04 AM · Jul 29, 2020·TweetDeck

[Spectator]

Comments in-line.

Spectator,

I have a few questions,


1. When you say the additional 16,500 FB visas from last year is not showing up in the USCIS bulletin, does it mean that it is not yet allocated? Which, ergo, would mean there could be some extra visas for next month (howsoever small it could be)

The official position of DOS is that the minimum allocation is used until the official numerical lists can be calculated.

If DOS actually operated per the above statement, given that DOS only receive the required information from USCIS after the August VB has been published, then all extra numbers above 140,000 would have to be allocated in September.

Clearly, DOS can not operate like that. In a normal year, DOS know within a few tens or hundreds, what the official calculation is likely to be. They know that from at least January of the FY.

Given that, I’m pretty sure the distribution of the extra visas starts before the official figures are calculated. I wouldn’t like to speculate when those extra visas are allocated.




2. Why wasn't the EB quota adjusted to account for the lack of FB demand this FY? If the FB quota was underallocated by 110K, then technically, this should come out to be 7% of this number or 7,700 visas for EB2 (combined). If EB2ROW is current and interviews are not happening then I can't fathom how additional ROW demand came about from thin air to consume these visas.

I’m not sure what you are trying to say.

The EB allocation for FY2020 will not be affected due low use of FB in FY2020. That will be taken into account when the FY2021 EB allocation is calculated.

Low FB use by a Country in FY2020 may allow extra EB approvals for that Country while still remaining within the overall 7% per Country limit for FY2020.




3. Similar to point 2 when is the EB quota re-adjusted to include the reduced FB numbers? This assumes that the president's EO continues unchallenged and no FB visas are allocated for Q1 FY 2021

See point 2.




I had expected much more movement for EB2I. Last four months movement has only been 44 days and corresponds to a net 800 additional visas. This number is ridiculously low given the situation we are in and the math just doesn't add up. On the other hand, I see rapid movement for EB1I and a barrage of approvals in Trackitt. I get your point about logistics and how the pandemic has affected the process. However, doesn't it be applicable to everyone, not just EB2 India?

I’m not sure how you are equating 44 days movement to 800 visas.




I do not want to attribute this to conspiracy theories, but there is something fishy going on. Either the administration has given mandate to the agencies to harm EB India or there is some sort of a collusion between the agencies and immigration lawyers. Again, I do not want to believe this, but I don't see a logical explanation.

I don’t subscribe to conspiracy theories.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Just makes me so mad... what other evidence is needed? They can simply deny this and will not be held accountable if visas get wasted.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
@ReichlinMelnick
.
@RepZoeLofgren
: "Let me just be frank. Members of my staff have recieved information from USCIS employees indicating that DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin. Do you have any knowledge of that?"

Edlow says no.

[karanjohar]

Jeez. Can't understand why they hate legal immigrants so much.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Jeez. Can't understand why they hate legal immigrants so much.

They hate ALL immigration. When you have Jessica Vaughan testifying in Congress, you know what's up.

[jimmys]

Jeez. Can't understand why they hate legal immigrants so much.

If so, why did they move EB-1 India close to 3 years in the last 4 months?

[karanjohar]

I don't know. Do you?

[vsivarama]

@RepZoeLofgren
: "Let me just be frank. Members of my staff have recieved information from USCIS employees indicating that DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin. Do you have any knowledge of that?"


This might have been going on for a while from the looks of it. How do you square the fact that none of CO's check-in matches with what the VB looks like in the immediate succeeding months.

[redtogreen]

Just makes me so mad... what other evidence is needed? They can simply deny this and will not be held accountable if visas get wasted.

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick
@ReichlinMelnick
.
@RepZoeLofgren
: "Let me just be frank. Members of my staff have recieved information from USCIS employees indicating that DHS political leadership overruled career officials in setting the priority dates for the visa bulletin. Do you have any knowledge of that?"

Edlow says no.

They will deny everything and not to forget Mr.CO's diplomatic stance this month for eb2i, not mentioning a thing about the 25k visa wastage, spillovers (next year ) etc....just a vague statement of dates not moving due to ROW demand. With no insight to pending inventory, we are clueless as to what is happening behind the scenes.

[AceMan]

For the Vertical Spillover from EB1, you are considering the number being available because of consulates being closed.
But I guess a lot of filings in EB1 I are AOS as they are on H1 and L1 and are already here. So I doubt there will be much vertical spill over. It can be that the dates in EB1 need to move beyond 2018 to generate further demand in that category.

Also add to the fact that Eb1 Row is current and the number Eb1 applicant from India beyond April 2018 appears to be very limited.

[qesehmk]

I think Spec's last post is generally agreeable except I do think that given that DOS controls the numbers , there is nothing that they really need to check with USCIS before they declare how many numbers move to EB next year.

However I do understand that they want to be cautious and see which way the wind blows before they commit the numbers to EB.

I also think that at the end of the day Congress can take away what's given by creating new laws but that the chance of that happening is practically ZERO.

Bottomline: the ball will be in CO's court.

[vedu]

It's out in the open now...

(((Greg Siskind)))
@gsiskind
I was a speaker this morning on a seminar, but just got alerted to some news from the House Judiciary Committee hearing with USCIS. Zoe Lofgren said she was told that DHS political appointees set the Visa Bulletin Employment-based dates in the July Visa bulletin. h/t
@ejtaub
9:04 AM · Jul 29, 2020·TweetDeck

The puzzling thing is why did they let CO set the Visa Bulletin Family dates in the Visa bulletin given that they hate FB even more?:confused: There is no end to speculations and conspiracy theories!

[jimmys]

I don't know. Do you?

I didn't claim "they hate legal immigrants so much" when the dates moved across the board including China.

[vedu]

Low FB use by a Country in FY2020 may allow extra EB approvals for that Country while still remaining within the overall 7% per Country limit for FY2020.

Spec,

this is the most logical explanation I have heard about why EB2/3 India categories may not have gotten much spillover this year. Thank you for pointing that out. We won't know the real truth until they publish the data later this year.

[karanjohar]

I didn't claim "they hate legal immigrants so much" when the dates moved across the board including China.

If you are looking for a flame war, sorry, not interested.

[longwaitgigu]

Wouldn't there be low FB approval this year for all countries ( until and unless there are AOS for india in FB) ?

[EB2IndSep09]

My 2 cents
There is no method to madness what CO or USCIS does for the GC processing. They have created such a convoluted process it now needs a fresh start by a new CIR.
All in all I see them as gamblers in casino, every time they try to win but at the end of the day they lose. My problem is they are betting hundreds of thousands of people's lives / time / effort / money / future at stake.
They are getting the kick out of legal immigrant's misery. ✌️

Just to keep sanity of people like me, effort from Q/Spec and all gurus via this forum helps.

[AceMan]

Bottomline: the ball will be in CO's court.


Sorry, Q, could not resist
Collectively he holds close to a million Made in India. ������

[idliman]

Yes-I think the spillover will happen as there is unlikely to be any legislation passed to reverse this before September 30. However the intent to recapture the lost visas for FB is there and would play a role in the DOS thinking. If there is such a legislation passed in early 2021 (second Quarter of FY 2021) then I think the DOS will adjust dates accordingly. I expect them not to front load the additional visas to the EB category as once issued they cannot be reclaimed for FB visas. If the 110000 visas are divided by 12 months there will be 9000 extra numbers per month. I hope there is at least that amount taken into consideration while issuing the visa bulletin
gs1968, You correctly predicted that chances of legislation preventing spillover are unlikely to be included in round 2 of COVID relief a few days earlier. The current developments (news today and yesterday) show that there is a huge difference between a) What R's want b) What individual R's want (McConnell said about 20 of their members are not in agreement with their own proposal) and c) What's in 1868 page house version vs 168 page senate version. Anything that is not absolutely basic for aid will be taken out. Hence, I don't see Rep. Meng's amendment to pass. Even the president will not get his wish for a new FBI building opposite to his Hotel in DC.

Totally ignoring the elephant in the room, S386; Is it fair to say there are two developments to watch-out in the immediate future: 1. USCIS/DOS release their statistics on unused numbers from 2019 to be added to 2020 EB quota officially by the next bulletin. 2. USCIS Furlough that has been pushed now to the end of August (excuse for not moving VB dates).

[vsivarama]

Does anyone know if additional USCIS funding will be part of the relief bill? If not with the USCIS furloughs end of next month, I see no value of spillover coming to EB.

[idliman]

Does anyone know if additional USCIS funding will be part of the relief bill? If not with the USCIS furloughs end of next month, I see no value of spillover coming to EB. The 1.222B relief is in the Senate version. All application fees will increase by 10%+21% (seasonal increase). In House, they are calling for more USCIS oversight and AILA is looking for something too. My understanding is that the Furlough will be only for the month of September. October is the start of next year Is't it?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

The 1.222B relief is in the Senate version. All application fees will increase by 10%+21% (seasonal increase). In House, they are calling for more USCIS oversight and AILA is looking for something too. My understanding is that the Furlough will be only for the month of September. October is the start of next year Is't it?

I believe that is accurate. The fight now is for the month of September to be funded.

I can think of a way they can get some revenue in Sept 🤪

[vsivarama]

The 1.222B relief is in the Senate version. All application fees will increase by 10%+21% (seasonal increase). In House, they are calling for more USCIS oversight and AILA is looking for something too. My understanding is that the Furlough will be only for the month of September. October is the start of next year Is't it?

Here is the thing I do not get. USCIS is fee driven. So I am not sure if there is any regular budget allocation specifically to USCIS (DHS may be a different issue) every year. So I didn't see it as funding only for the month of September. I thought that was the loan USCIS will receive and will have to payback to the govt in future with the fee it collects. So if it does not get the loan, My assumption is the furlough will extend beyond the month of September. Please do correct me if my understanding was wrong.

[paramjit74]

Got the magic text and email this morning for Card Production 2 months after being current.

[idliman]

Here is the thing I do not get. USCIS is fee driven. So I am not sure if there is any regular budget allocation specifically to USCIS (DHS may be a different issue) every year. So I didn't see it as funding only for the month of September. I thought that was the loan USCIS will receive and will have to payback to the govt in future with the fee it collects. So if it does not get the loan, My assumption is the furlough will extend beyond the month of September. Please do correct me if my understanding was wrong.
They pushed the date to Aug 30, and the furlough notices should come today. As there is no activity yet, I think they are not doing it.

Employees will receive another notice informing them of the new possible furlough date before July 30, a USCIS spokesman said.

They can easily overcome the funding issue, by opening up the I485 filing dates. For every 10K I-485 applications, USCIS brings in $11.25 million ($1125 x 10K). Just moving the DF by 2 years will bring them about 30 to 40 million USD within a month. I think it is politics. They want to destroy immigration and the political appointees are making it happen. I wonder how the USCIS staff feel, especially when their own management wants to send them home without pay.

I really don't know how the funding works in a self-funded agency (carry over to next year). Is the agency even telling the truth about deficit?


Got the magic text and email this morning for Card Production 2 months after being current. Congratulations. Even though we have not crossed paths, it gives pleasure to see another backlogger achieving his goals. Peace.

[jimmys]

Got the magic text and email this morning for Card Production 2 months after being current.

Congrats!!

[alpha0]

I believe that is accurate. The fight now is for the month of September to be funded.

I can think of a way they can get some revenue in Sept 🤪

I thought as per Sen Leahy's letter, USCIS had surplus for this year which would have taken care of Sep payroll as well. I get a feeling this administration is knowingly playing this furlough game to reduce approvals.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I thought as per Sen Leahy's letter, USCIS had surplus for this year which would have taken care of Sep payroll as well. I get a feeling this administration is knowingly playing this furlough game to reduce approvals.

Yes that's correct. After Sen. Leahy brought that up, they just pushed the deadline from end of July to end of August, just kicking the can down the road. Close to end of August, it will again be brought up and debated. That's how things work in Capitol Hill, unfortunately.

[texas_]

https://judiciary.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=3145


Interesting around post 27 Minutes :D

[rocketfast]

https://judiciary.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=3145


Interesting around post 27 Minutes :D

His numbers are bizarre. As of July 16th, he claims, 106,000 GCs were approved in EB. And he says that is 86.8% of total available. I wonder they are calculating it based of last year's USCIS approvals (i.e only 85% of 140,000 and 86.8% on top of it.) which comes close to his number.

[vsivarama]

106K is just 75% of 140K. He is not taking into account 16K spillover from FB. Looks like USCIS does not understand concepts of basic math which explains its bungling on the budget calculations.

[skpanda]

Got the magic text and email this morning for Card Production 2 months after being current.

Congratulations! Happy for you... happy to hear people getting greened! njoy!

[H1b2006]

Hello All,

Joined new in this forum. i have been silent reader for many months.

14 yrs in US already.

PD: Feb 11,2011
EB2, thr Emp A

H1b transfer + extension approved till dec 2022

My new employer is initiating my perm in Eb3 in upcoming month. Hoping Filing dates will move to file for I-485 next year atleast.

which is the best bet EB2 or EB3 for next 3 years for PD: Feb 11, 2011

Thanks,
H1b2006

[longwaitgigu]

May be this is the weird question to ask in this intelligent forum
But I will still ask as it increases my anxiety.
Is it possible for AILA lawyers to stop the spillover from happening or can USCIS hold it in the same category ( bunch of discussion is going on trackitt)
As visagate scandal 2015 lawyer is encouraging from stopping the spillover ( I understand law has to pass through congress for stopping spillover)
What other ways it could be stopped?

[rocketfast]

May be this is the weird question to ask in this intelligent forum
But I will still ask as it increases my anxiety.
Is it possible for AILA lawyers to stop the spillover from happening or can USCIS hold it in the same category ( bunch of discussion is going on trackitt)
As visagate scandal 2015 lawyer is encouraging from stopping the spillover ( I understand law has to pass through congress for stopping spillover)
What other ways it could be stopped?

We do know that lawyers lobbied USCIS to water down I-140 EAD regulation during Obama admin. So yes, some lawyers will use their contacts in USCIS to lobby to f*ck us over. This time around, there will also be CIS lobbying USCIS to f*ck us over. So we need these things to happen


1. Spillover to actually happen. (No changes in law)
2. CO to actually move dates aggressively - both final action dates and filing dates (instead of saying he will only move dates based on USCIS capacity)
3. USCIS actually honoring CO dates. It is very unlikely that USCIS will do 250,000 GC processing with current admin. With Joe Biden's admin, things will be a little better.

[excalibur123]

Got the magic text and email this morning for Card Production 2 months after being current.

Congratulations !

I hope you get to do certain things which you were holding off - implement any business ideas you may have.

I wish the same for the guys here, waiting for 15-20 years.... once they have the GCs they create the businesses and be job creators - show to those who think H1Bs can't do that...

(Keep the fire burning !)

[getsaby]

More mullah for USCIS without any accountabilty shame on the whole org.

1711



USCIS is moving forward with fee increases for most employment-based applications and petitions. The new fees will take effect October 2, 2020.

As part of the fee increase, USCIS is also increasing the clock for premium processed petitions. Currently, USCIS must act on a premium processing petition within 15 calendar days. Beginning October 2nd, that will increase to 15 business days.

Another major impact of this change is on new adjustment of status (I-485 applicants). Currently, adjustment of status applicants can file an application for employment authorization EAD and travel document AP without paying any additional fee and these can be renewed every two years without paying any additional fee. USCIS is reverting back to pre-2007 and will now require a separate fee to be paid for each EAD and each AP. Although the fee new fee schedule shows the I-485 filing fee is reduced by $10. When taking into account the new fee for the EAD and AP, the I-485 filing fee is actually doubled and the EAD and AP fees have to be paid each time a renewal is needed if USCIS fails to process the I-485 within 1 year of filing. In addition, adjustment of status applicants with children currently have a reduced filing fee of $750. Going forward, the filing fee will be the same as adults.

[vsivarama]

I wish the same for the guys here, waiting for 15-20 years.... once they have the GCs they create the businesses and be job creators - show to those who think H1Bs can't do that...

(Keep the fire burning !)

It's unfortunate but that may never happen. Most of us have spent peak working years in limbo instead of working towards a startup or any business. Frankly, I see an increasing trend where people with capital are moving towards investment properties/land acquisitions/stock market which do not create additional employment for the local residents. These unfortunately are the unintended consequences of a broken/antiquated immigration system.

[srimurthy]

His numbers are bizarre. As of July 16th, he claims, 106,000 GCs were approved in EB. And he says that is 86.8% of total available. I wonder they are calculating it based of last year's USCIS approvals (i.e only 85% of 140,000 and 86.8% on top of it.) which comes close to his number.

Can it be considered lying and lying to congress an offence? Or simply clarify that I misquoted the figures!

[srimurthy]

May be this is the weird question to ask in this intelligent forum
But I will still ask as it increases my anxiety.
Is it possible for AILA lawyers to stop the spillover from happening or can USCIS hold it in the same category ( bunch of discussion is going on trackitt)
As visagate scandal 2015 lawyer is encouraging from stopping the spillover ( I understand law has to pass through congress for stopping spillover)
What other ways it could be stopped?

That is called lobbying and perfectly legal I guess.

[longwaitgigu]

That is called lobbying and perfectly legal I guess.
Slowing down processing of I 485 will possibly happen and not use all spillover is 100% possible too.
But I cant see them not giving the spillover until and unless law passes through congress( which might not happen before oct 2020)

[excalibur123]

It's unfortunate but that may never happen. Most of us have spent peak working years in limbo instead of working towards a startup or any business. Frankly, I see an increasing trend where people with capital are moving towards investment properties/land acquisitions/stock market which do not create additional employment for the local residents. These unfortunately are the unintended consequences of a broken/antiquated immigration system.

Only partly true - the peak is not gone. Lots of businesses are created after 40s. The system may have dented the zeal but you are now more wise and secure.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/at-40-he-had-a-job-he-hated-now-hes-worth-half-a-billion-dollars-2019-09-24

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40504764

[idliman]

More mullah for USCIS without any accountabilty shame on the whole org.

USCIS is moving forward with fee increases for most employment-based applications and petitions. The new fees will take effect October 2, 2020.

That background of the picture is a dead giveaway of its source (Hint: That "girl" played a role with Reddi Garu in I-140 EAD issue).

Is USCIS planning for a YUGE (Yuuuuge) PD movement starting Oct 2020 bulletin?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Only partly true - the peak is not gone. Lots of businesses are created after 40s. The system may have dented the zeal but you are now more wise and secure.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/at-40-he-had-a-job-he-hated-now-hes-worth-half-a-billion-dollars-2019-09-24

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40504764

Very true! I did not start a company but considered a defacto co-founder non-legally since I was the third person. We grew the company to 140+ and sold off a division last year with 40+ people, all while being on just a H1B. Though I don't get to call myself any fancy titles or be in publications, it's just a satisfaction to have provided a living to 100+ families and also providing for my own. Sometimes at the end of the day, that's all that matters.

[texas_]

http://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2020-16389.pdf

New Proposed Fee hike at USCIS

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

http://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2020-16389.pdf

New Proposed Fee hike at USCIS

Step 1: Don't accept new applications.
Step 2: Cry that you are in deficit and furlough workers.
Step 3: Raise fees bajillion percent across the board.
Step 4: Profit.

[redtogreen]

http://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2020-16389.pdf

New Proposed Fee hike at USCIS

Are applicants who filed AOS in 2012 also expected to pay the renewal fee for EAD/ AP starting next FY?

[rabp77]

Hi All,

Does the USCIS fee increase mean no more furlough in September 2020?

Interested in knowing your thoughts on this, as this is likely to impact visa wastage and dates I'm coming months.

[usvisas]

Me thinking same. Thanks for posting

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Hi All,

Does the USCIS fee increase mean no more furlough in September 2020?

Interested in knowing your thoughts on this, as this is likely to impact visa wastage and dates I'm coming months.

These fee increases are for next FY2021.

[H1b2006]

Guys changed my employer got 3 yrs extension, retained PD 02/11/2011
to get an idea when eb3 pd:02/11/2011 becomes current?

[longwaitgigu]

These fee increases are for next FY2021.
Any predictions for movement of dates of filing like 2 years with fee increase, no furlough and paying back to federal ( if senate appropriations passes for funding)

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Any predictions for movement of dates of filing like 2 years with fee increase, no furlough and paying back to federal ( if senate appropriations passes for funding)

If EB2-ROW remains current with low demand, there should be no excuse to keep EB2I back, but there are just too many nefarious things underfoot so I would not count on that. EB3 ROW is still behind more than a year so EB3 should also stick around with EB2. I don’t know what they are going to do with EB1I. If they make it current, EB2I will get spillover from the top and horizontally from EB2ROW unless I am missing something. But you know what’s gonna happen once EB1I is made current. All the major software shops are going to abandon H1B and load up on EB1Cs so unless they start restricting those strictly, the pain will continue.

[EB2IndSep09]

Guys changed my employer got 3 yrs extension, retained PD 02/11/2011
to get an idea when eb3 pd:02/11/2011 becomes current?

It is between 3 years (aggressive) to 5 years (conservative) based on the inventory information and current situation. If some of the recapturing or relief in immigration rules change you might get lucky.

[1312011_eb2I]

You will be current in next fiscal year starting Oct 2020, as per below link from am22tech:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.am22tech.com/eb2-india-predictions/%3famp

[longwaitgigu]

You will be current in next fiscal year starting Oct 2020, as per below link from am22tech:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.am22tech.com/eb2-india-predictions/%3famp
This website does not have reliable data and predictions, he updates based on all news

[H1b2006]

Wow thats Great!! I foresee FB numbers unused next year aswell, i dont see covid vaccine immediately in next 6months.

hope they will apply the numbers from FB to EB and do justice to EB longtimers like 15yrs-20yrs waittimes folks.

[jimmys]

Guys changed my employer got 3 yrs extension, retained PD 02/11/2011
to get an idea when eb3 pd:02/11/2011 becomes current?

Nobody, I mean nobody, knows when a PD is going to be current.There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it. Some trying to predict optimistically and some pessimistically. Each month could be a surprise, Either positively or negatively. Even with whatever data available, the predictions could be off anywhere from 1-3 years. End of the day, it's all guesses with or without data. I request you not to have high hopes about any predictions. The reality is going to be worse than the most pessimistic prediction.

The source of above statements is my GC journey. I have been in the backlog for 11+ years now and I have seen all of it.

My guess is, your PD could be current as early as this December. But, it may not become current even next year. There is no way to precisely tell whether your PD is going to be current this year or next year or the year after next. If I were you, I will collect all the required documents and be ready just in case. Good luck!

[rabp77]

Wow thats Great!! I foresee FB numbers unused bext year aswell, i dont see covid vaccine immediately in next 6months.

hope they will apply the numbers from FB to EB and do justice to EB longtimers like 15yrs-20yrs waittimes folks.

jimmys is right. Q has mentioned before that there is cone of probably that we need to look at. In the best case, the huge FB spill over is applied and he advances the date the filing date significantly early next FY (Oct 2020), so that all processing can be done, and that the applications are ready to be approved towards the last quarter of FY (July 2021 - Sept 2021) when the horizontal spill over normally gets applied. In the worst case, the there is no spill over because congress passes a law to prevent it, in which case it can take longer. Best of luck. Hoping its the former and not the latter for everyone.

[H1b2006]

well. hope for the best.
folks who had 2010/2011 PD and survived the covid layoffs should see thier GC in next 1 to 3yrs atleast.

[getsaby]

What you make of EB2I folks with PD between Aug 2009 and Dec 2009.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

well. hope for the best.
folks who had 2010/2011 PD and survived the covid layoffs should see thier GC in next 1 to 3yrs atleast.

Well, we have been hoping for that for the past 5 years now.

[EB22010Dec]

Well, we have been hoping for that for the past 5 years now.
Well, this time it's different :)

[kumareb2]

Well, we have been hoping for that for the past 5 years now.

initially it used to be 5 to 6 years for EB2, and then 7-10 years, Now 10+ years :-)

[srimurthy]

Well, this time it's different :)
How? Not sure how the 2010 and 2011 dates can be expected in 1 to 3 years? That we can't even predict if it doesn't clear 2009 before Dec 2020.
And no matter what we are expecting from FB, until DOS and USCIS starts allocating and clearing the pre-adjudicated applications and moving dates nothing is progressing. If they don't then expect the 2800 allocated to move the dates by a couple of months in the next one year.

[gcpursuit]

So... this morning i got this email alert. I had filed my 485 in 2015 and had no updates ever since. I am current since july. Now I get an alert that some "notice" is undelivered. Does anyone have any idea what this means? Is this RFE? The status shows initial review and i am confused. If I go the website to request for a copy of the notice, i am not sure what i should pick as option. They have appointment,RFE and other etc., Any insights appreciated.

Application Type: I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Initial Review

On August 4, 2020, the Post Office returned a notice we sent you for your Form I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR ADJUST STATUS, Receipt Number SRC1690004914, because they could not deliver it. This could have a serious effect on your case. Please go to www.uscis.gov/e-request to request a copy of the notice immediately. If you move, go to www.uscis.gov/addresschange to give us your new mailing address.

[bloddy1]

So... this morning i got this email alert. I had filed my 485 in 2015 and had no updates ever since. I am current since july. Now I get an alert that some "notice" is undelivered.

It could be RFE/additional request for documentation or medical procedure required. Or a notice of receipt (after 5 years) but more likely a medical RFE

[idliman]

So... this morning i got this email alert. I had filed my 485 in 2015 and had no updates ever since. I am current since july. Now I get an alert that some "notice" is undelivered. Does anyone have any idea what this means? Is this RFE? The status shows initial review and i am confused. If I go the website to request for a copy of the notice, i am not sure what i should pick as option. They have appointment,RFE and other etc., Any insights appreciated.

Application Type: I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Initial Review

On August 4, 2020, the Post Office returned a notice we sent you for your Form I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR ADJUST STATUS, Receipt Number SRC1690004914, because they could not deliver it. This could have a serious effect on your case. Please go to www.uscis.gov/e-request to request a copy of the notice immediately. If you move, go to www.uscis.gov/addresschange to give us your new mailing address.
I can think of two scenarios: 1) Did you move after 2015 and somehow forgot to file AR-11? OR 2) Did someone with same last name stayed with you and relocated to a different address in the last 5 years? Anyway, your RFE (likely) was sent back to USCIS by USPS.

If your address details are correct (meaning latest AR-11 is with USCIS or you have not moved since 2015), then you need to go to the post office and ask them what's wrong. You need to do this part because, you don't want your GC to be sent back to USCIS. The post man / woman have a computer system and they can track and say whats going on. Also signup for free USPS informed delivery service (everyone dealing with USCIS should do this).

It may not hurt to call back USCIS and talk to L2 agent and request them to resend the RFE ASAP.

The faster you send the RFE response, the faster you will get GC. You are almost there. Just get this thing done.

[idliman]

As a general rule, please be nice to your post man / woman. Appreciate them during Christmas time (cookies or community gift). It is better to have them on our side. And always signup for USCIS informed delivery so that you know what mail is coming.

[idliman]

How? Not sure how the 2010 and 2011 dates can be expected in 1 to 3 years? That we can't even predict if it doesn't clear 2009 before Dec 2020.
And no matter what we are expecting from FB, until DOS and USCIS starts allocating and clearing the pre-adjudicated applications and moving dates nothing is progressing. If they don't then expect the 2800 allocated to move the dates by a couple of months in the next one year.
I agree. The outlook for Dec 2009 is anywhere from 2 months to 2+ years. A pending inventory of 6 months EB2I might take 2+ years to clear if no spillover is allowed. Sadly, the political appointees control the movement (see video from earlier posts). Hopefully this will change and winds change direction after Nov 3rd.

[laksinu800]

I agree. The outlook for Dec 2009 is anywhere from 2 months to 2+ years. A pending inventory of 6 months EB2I might take 2+ years to clear if no spillover is allowed. Sadly, the political appointees control the movement (see video from earlier posts). Hopefully this will change and winds change direction after Nov 3rd.

Thank you all...

how is EB2 sept 2009 outlook looking like ... do you think at least the filing dates will move around this year end

[longwaitgigu]

We all have more pessimist outlook than optimistic.
At least these spillover gave us some Hope's of movement of dates. USCIS and DOL cannot just take spillover until and unless it passes through congress.
Specifically for dates 2009, 2010 and 2011 I guess, they might accept filing dates given the circumstances of uscis furlough, congress proving funding, spillover
We could also predict in optimistic scenarios for both eb2, eb3 2009, 2010 and may be mid 2011 to be greened if agent orange again gets elected and extend the EO.

[AceMan]

As a general rule, please be nice to your post man / woman. Appreciate them during Christmas time (cookies or community gift). It is better to have them on our side. And always signup for USCIS informed delivery so that you know what mail is coming.

I will tell you a downside to it. I had re-gifted my postwoman a bottle of wine for Christmas I got as gift(not a wine drinker)

Few months later I got a registered letter which had only my name and zip code correct, Street name, state all Indianized. MalBorrow, New Jersee. I was impressed with myself thinking how popular I am. It was all good till I opened the mail and realized it was a summons for my appearance for some court case in India.

I even got a follow up registered again, and the postwoman told me that I should let the person back in India know my correct address

[idliman]

I will tell you a downside to it. I had re-gifted my postwoman a bottle of wine for Christmas I got as gift(not a wine drinker)

Few months later I got a registered letter which had only my name and zip code correct, Street name, state all Indianized. MalBorrow, New Jersee. I was impressed with myself thinking how popular I am. It was all good till I opened the mail and realized it was a summons for my appearance for some court case in India.

I even got a follow up registered again, and the postwoman told me that I should let the person back in India know my correct address
Wow. Made me laugh!
My recommendation was based on experience. Someone used my home as temporary address in between moving from Job A to Job B (different states). The first six characters of last name matched. When they redirected mail after settling in Job B, all my mails went to a different state. Credit card notice redirection meant, credit reports were automatically updated to show that I am now in a different state. It was through credit alert that I noticed this. That one week also coincided with USCIS receipt notices. I had to ask USCIS to resend receipt notices. USPS tried to recall mail, but did not work. It was a mess. It made me realize the importance of post man / woman for people in our situation. So be nice people.

[jimmys]

So... this morning i got this email alert. I had filed my 485 in 2015 and had no updates ever since. I am current since july. Now I get an alert that some "notice" is undelivered. Does anyone have any idea what this means? Is this RFE? The status shows initial review and i am confused. If I go the website to request for a copy of the notice, i am not sure what i should pick as option. They have appointment,RFE and other etc., Any insights appreciated.

Application Type: I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR ADJUST STATUS

Your Case Status: Initial Review

On August 4, 2020, the Post Office returned a notice we sent you for your Form I485, APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR ADJUST STATUS, Receipt Number SRC1690004914, because they could not deliver it. This could have a serious effect on your case. Please go to www.uscis.gov/e-request to request a copy of the notice immediately. If you move, go to www.uscis.gov/addresschange to give us your new mailing address.

Is your current address on file with USCIS?

[AceMan]

Wow. Made me laugh!
My recommendation was based on experience. Someone used my home as temporary address in between moving from Job A to Job B (different states). The first six characters of last name matched. When they redirected mail after settling in Job B, all my mails went to a different state. Credit card notice redirection meant, credit reports were automatically updated to show that I am now in a different state. It was through credit alert that I noticed this. That one week also coincided with USCIS receipt notices. I had to ask USCIS to resend receipt notices. USPS tried to recall mail, but did not work. It was a mess. It made me realize the importance of post man / woman for people in our situation. So be nice people.

I understood your intent, in fact I had a situation last year when I forgot to update AR 11 for my 11 year old son when we bought and moved to a new house and I saw an update for his H4 biometrics with a message where post office could not deliver a document.

It is important for AR 11 update for every non citizen family members.

[gcpursuit]

I can think of two scenarios: 1) Did you move after 2015 and somehow forgot to file AR-11? OR 2) Did someone with same last name stayed with you and relocated to a different address in the last 5 years? Anyway, your RFE (likely) was sent back to USCIS by USPS.

If your address details are correct (meaning latest AR-11 is with USCIS or you have not moved since 2015), then you need to go to the post office and ask them what's wrong. You need to do this part because, you don't want your GC to be sent back to USCIS. The post man / woman have a computer system and they can track and say whats going on. Also signup for free USPS informed delivery service (everyone dealing with USCIS should do this).

It may not hurt to call back USCIS and talk to L2 agent and request them to resend the RFE ASAP.

The faster you send the RFE response, the faster you will get GC. You are almost there. Just get this thing done.

Thank you for your inputs. My address is the same and I have informed delivery also. I had raised a SR last month to get duplicate receipt notice for my I-485 which I never received in 2015. After years of follow up, they sent me a copy this july and I received it also. Apparently, that is the notice they are referring to according to L1 officer and not RFE. The officer didnt find any other status update on my case. I still dont know why it says undelivered when I did receive it. I am wondering if my attorney's address changed ( I dont know if they did ) and they tried to mail them a copy which triggered this status.

Anyways, the L1 officer said she is going to create a SR for "case being outside processing time" and i said ok. Hopefully, there is some movement with the SR.

[usvisas]

Hello forum -

What will be the counts (pending inventory + not applied yet) for EB2I and EB3I between 2009 and end of 2010?

From what I recollect - the last July 2018 inventory had inaccurate data to some extent (not sure of the error %) and EB3I obviously didn't have 2009 and 2010 counts.

Till date max dates that 485 has been applied are 4/30/2010 and 3/31/2010 for EB2I and EB3I respectively.

Give or take - as of today - I am seeing approvals coming meaning visa numbers generated for the month of June 2009 for both.

Going forward - movements for both are dependent on pending numbers in each category - I would think.

[Zenzone]

Hello forum -

What will be the counts (pending inventory + approved I140s) for EB2I and EB3I between 2009 and end of 2010?

From what I recollect - the last July 2018 inventory had inaccurate data to some extent (not sure of the error %) and EB3I obviously didn't have 2009 and 2010 counts.

Till date max dates that 485 has been applied are 4/30/2010 and 3/31/2010 for EB2I and EB3I respectively.

Give or take - as of today - I am seeing approvals coming meaning visa numbers generated for the month of June 2009 for both.

Going forward - movements for both are dependent on pending numbers in each category - I would think.

~ 70-80K give or take.

[usvisas]

cmon Zenzone :)

[idliman]

Hello forum -

What will be the counts (pending inventory + approved I140s) for EB2I and EB3I between 2009 and end of 2010?


~ 70-80K give or take.
That number is very high and sure to give a heart attack to folks here. As we are playing an educated guessing game (you need to did deep to look at PERM approvals and such), I would say 20K per year for EB2I and 10K per year for EB3I. I don't know what the CP demands are (20% to 30%). Combined total will be 30K for 2010. Another 15K remaining in 2009. So may be 45K+ people are waiting with PDs in 2009 and 2010?

This is a question for number gurus Ace, Whereismygc / Spec, etc.,

[AceMan]

That number is very high and sure to give a heart attack to folks here. As we are playing an educated guessing game (you need to did deep to look at PERM approvals and such), I would say 20K per year for EB2I and 10K per year for EB3I. I don't know what the CP demands are (20% to 30%). Combined total will be 30K for 2010. Another 15K remaining in 2009. So may be 45K+ people are waiting with PDs in 2009 and 2010?

This is a question for number gurus Ace, Whereismygc / Spec, etc.,

My predictions are like Chetan Sharma bowling to Javed Miandad in Sharjah final. Miandad being the CO/USCIS.

Totally bogus, baseless crap is what I call my predictions.

Even earlier I thought Eb2 will move another month, but did not move a single day. Eb3 forward movement without Eb2 is plain disastrous as people are going to downgrade. The lure of faster exit from this GC mess makes people apply for new 140, which completely messes up the calculation for both 2 and 3.

[shaisri]

My predictions are like Chetan Sharma bowling to Javed Miandad in Sharjah final. Miandad being the CO/USCIS.

Totally bogus, baseless crap is what I call my predictions.

Even earlier I thought Eb2 will move another month, but did not move a single day. Eb3 forward movement without Eb2 is plain disastrous as people are going to downgrade. The lure of faster exit from this GC mess makes people apply for new 140, which completely messes up the calculation for both 2 and 3.

We are in EB2 with pd Jan 10 2010. it seems like forecasts show EB3 going past this date over the next couple of months? would it make sense for us to downgrade at this point with EB2 numbers hardly moving?

[qesehmk]

My predictions are like Chetan Sharma bowling to Javed Miandad in Sharjah final. Miandad being the CO/USCIS.


I lost interest in cricket due to that single ball ...... and only started watching again after Sachin came on the scene and beat the ---- out of Abdul Kadir in Pakistan.

[usvisas]

My predictions are like Chetan Sharma bowling to Javed Miandad in Sharjah final. Miandad being the CO/USCIS.

Totally bogus, baseless crap is what I call my predictions.

Even earlier I thought Eb2 will move another month, but did not move a single day. Eb3 forward movement without Eb2 is plain disastrous as people are going to downgrade. The lure of faster exit from this GC mess makes people apply for new 140, which completely messes up the calculation for both 2 and 3.

Sure, dont disagree AceMan. For that reason - just trying to get as accurate numbers as possible. rest would be speculation and its upto the forum individuals.

[EB2IndSep09]

We are in EB2 with pd Jan 10 2010. it seems like forecasts show EB3 going past this date over the next couple of months? would it make sense for us to downgrade at this point with EB2 numbers hardly moving?

If you have not applied AOS and employer supports it makes perfect sense to me to downgrade.

why? My PD is EB2 Sept 2009 as one might figure from my UName
I reached out to my employer's immigration team in 2018 to downgrade from EB2 to EB3 which has been pushed back and also given a free piece of advise that historically EB2 moves faster than EB3.
we are in 2020 (2 years down the line) my PD is current in EB3 and I am yet to file AOS.

[AceMan]

We are in EB2 with pd Jan 10 2010. it seems like forecasts show EB3 going past this date over the next couple of months? would it make sense for us to downgrade at this point with EB2 numbers hardly moving?

Personally I despise downgrading. However if you downgrade you can get GC faster and you have another petition. At the very minimum you can block another person, which should be a big motivation.


You got to do what you have to do to get your GC faster even if it is 10 minutes faster.

[AceMan]

Sure, dont disagree AceMan. For that reason - just trying to get as accurate numbers as possible. rest would be speculation and its upto the forum individuals.

We cannot get accurate predictions anymore if USCIS does not move dates together. People who has been stuck in the queue wanting to downgrade because Eb3 is 3 months faster than Eb2.

Initially the urge to get faster EAD, then it becomes the urge for faster GC, the backlog/interviews all resulting in absolute waste of effort in making any realistic predictions.

[usvisas]

We cannot get accurate predictions anymore if USCIS does not move dates together. People who has been stuck in the queue wanting to downgrade because Eb3 is 3 months faster than Eb2.

Initially the urge to get faster EAD, then it becomes the urge for faster GC, the backlog/interviews all resulting in absolute waste of effort in making any realistic predictions.

Again AceMan - can't agree more with what you said. I am just looking for accurate numbers from Guru's and not predictions. I have looked and been loooking at earlier posts from Spec and others (mentioned below), but can't seem to figure out pending (applied + non-applied) numbers for EB2I and EB3I until mid-2010. I mentioned 2010 end to keep it simple as I could cut it by 50% as I do realize we may not want to drill down too deep.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)/page224
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

Yourself, Spec, Q and many others have helped a lot sharing facts and opinions!!!!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Again AceMan - can't agree more with what you said. I am just looking for accurate numbers from Guru's and not predictions. I have looked and been loooking at earlier posts from Spec and others (mentioned below), but can't seem to figure out pending (applied + non-applied) numbers for EB2I and EB3I until mid-2010. I mentioned 2010 end to keep it simple as I could cut it by 50% as I do realize we may not want to drill down too deep.

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)/page224
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations

Yourself, Spec, Q and many others have helped a lot sharing facts and opinions!!!!

I know it was mentioned a couple of times in the posts before so I will reiterate that: no one has the exact and accurate numbers after they stopped publishing the inventory data after July 2018. This was done deliberately to keep the water as muddled as possible so that there is no accountability and they can simply say, "Oh the demand for that category is high, so we had to hold back the dates" and not have to provide any numbers to back that up. It's that and incompetence as they are not able to reconcile all the upgrades and downgrades that have happened in the past few years. You would think a search by A-number which remains constant would sort that out, but you have to remember you are dealing with numskulls.

[EB2IndSep09]

I know it was mentioned a couple of times in the posts before so I will reiterate that: no one has the exact and accurate numbers after they stopped publishing the inventory data after July 2018. This was done deliberately to keep the water as muddled as possible so that there is no accountability and they can simply say, "Oh the demand for that category is high, so we had to hold back the dates" and not have to provide any numbers to back that up. It's that and incompetence as they are not able to reconcile all the upgrades and downgrades that have happened in the past few years. You would think a search by A-number which remains constant would sort that out, but you have to remember you are dealing with numskulls.

Just to add more context and clarity to this.. TD correct me if I interpreted something wrong
whatever educated guess Q, Spec and others are doing is by using other inventory like PERM approvals, people reporting on other forums and the baseline data last published data.
Here comes the tricky part no one can accurately count how many are net new and how many are upgrades/downgrades.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Just to add more context and clarity to this.. TD correct me if I interpreted something wrong
whatever educated guess Q, Spec and others are doing is by using other inventory like PERM approvals, people reporting on other forums and the baseline data last published data.
Here comes the tricky part no one can accurately count how many are net new and how many are upgrades/downgrades.

Yeah the upgrades/downgrades have really screwed the pooch for EB2-3/I. All the PERM approvals can provide is a number to add to the backlog but it is difficult to calculate who is not in the backlog any longer based on already obtaining the GC through other means or abandoning it all together.

[h1bh1bh1b]

I had upgraded to EB2 but when EB3 DF became current took it and got EAD, now I am current. However EB2 line still be counting me

[EB2IndSep09]

I had upgraded to EB2 but when EB3 DF became current took it and got EAD, now I am current. However EB2 line still be counting me

Exactly these type of situations in thousands is exploited by the two agencies to work against the movement of dates.
This could be addressed by a small fix in the system to keep it a little transparent but they wouldn't do.

[monsieur]

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal :p

[EB2IndSep09]

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal :p

I echo with the last statement.
My paralegal at Fragomen said no need of PERM, direct I-140 and no premium processing for I-140. Also as there is risk and cost associated, it has to be approved by the employer which was not approved by my employer.

[shaisri]

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal :p

Thank you. this response was really helpful

[shaisri]

If you have not applied AOS and employer supports it makes perfect sense to me to downgrade.

why? My PD is EB2 Sept 2009 as one might figure from my UName
I reached out to my employer's immigration team in 2018 to downgrade from EB2 to EB3 which has been pushed back and also given a free piece of advise that historically EB2 moves faster than EB3.
we are in 2020 (2 years down the line) my PD is current in EB3 and I am yet to file AOS.

Thank you for the perspective! appreciate it

[srisri]

Whoever want to upgrade/downgrade - More power to them. Just do your research before proceeding. Few things which comes to mind

- Processing time (taking 1yr+ for Perm and then I-140)
- Impact on existing application ( can you keep both application active or its one way)
- Complication resulting coz of undesired outcome

Fragomen told me that they can't just down-port me to EB3 without perm and once down-ported I will not be able to come back to EB2 while I am on same job. With XYZ firm, I can have only 1 active application which in this case will be EB3.

YMMV as Fragomen response changes with each Paralegal :p

I have couple of my colleagues who are mid 2010 and have successfully downported to EB3 without a new perm.

My employer is doing it, my PD is Dec 2009 and my manager approved it but deciding if I should do it?

[monsieur]

Thank you. this response was really helpful

Anytime as sharing is caring.

Another factors which gives me peace of mind

- EB2-ROW is current, so high chances of horizontal spillover
- Potential vertical spillover IF EB1-IC are current
- Known EB2-I inventory till Mid-2010, instead of uncharted EB3-I numbers

For now, I have decided to stay in EB2-I lane as I am fine getting GC few months/year late rather than taking risk with current admin. Any way even after GC I will be waking up and going to current job. ;)

Again not discouraging you to downport or stay where your. Your situation maybe different so just gather info and do whats GOOD for YOU.

[getsaby]

Just curious, what is your PD @monsieur

[creados]

Anytime as sharing is caring.

Another factors which gives me peace of mind

- EB2-ROW is current, so high chances of horizontal spillover
- Potential vertical spillover IF EB1-IC are current
- Known EB2-I inventory till Mid-2010, instead of uncharted EB3-I numbers

For now, I have decided to stay in EB2-I lane as I am fine getting GC few months/year late rather than taking risk with current admin. Any way even after GC I will be waking up and going to current job. ;)

Again not discouraging you to downport or stay where your. Your situation maybe different so just gather info and do whats GOOD for YOU.

I agree down porting to EB3 is risky given that EB3 is not going to get any spill down from EB2, while as EB2-ROW is current and very good chance that EB1 will be current. So, there is a high chance that there will be spill down from EB1 and spillover from ROW for EB2-I. Just my 2cents.

[monsieur]

Just curious, what is your PD @monsieur

Mine is Sep 2010

[idliman]

I have couple of my colleagues who are mid 2010 and have successfully downported to EB3 without a new perm.

My employer is doing it, my PD is Dec 2009 and my manager approved it but deciding if I should do it?
Your PD is close to mine. You are in EB2 too. Looks like you missed the 2012/2015 bus and don't have an EAD+AP. If that is the case, it is OK to down-port so that you can get an EAD+AP. What you are looking for is the immediate 180 days AOS pending clock that gives AC21 job-portability protections. The DF dates will not prevent the age-out of minor. If you already have an EAD, then it is not wise to down port unless you are sure that the FA dates are current and will stay current till GC is adjudicated (4 to 6 months).

It is my expectation that EB3I dates will continue to keep moving faster than EB2I as long as Indian consulates are closed. Last year about 1600/2800 EB3I was due to CP demand from outside of USA. Those people in India on EB3 never got a chance to file for CP because of COVID situation. The moment Consulates open, the EB3I dates will stall and most likely retrogress. That is what you need to watch out for.

[laksinu800]

QUOTE=srisri;65694]I have couple of my colleagues who are mid 2010 and have successfully downported to EB3 without a new perm.

My employer is doing it, my PD is Dec 2009 and my manager approved it but deciding if I should do it?[/QUOTE]




I would wait until end of this yrs and decide on ur downgrade for Dec 2009

[h1bh1bh1b]

@monsieur don’t need to down port now. When your PD is current you can file i140 for eb3 and Aos concurrently . At least that is what I read. Read October i485 2018 thread in tract it.. couple of people mentioned that

[srisri]

Your PD is close to mine. You are in EB2 too. Looks like you missed the 2012/2015 bus and don't have an EAD+AP. If that is the case, it is OK to down-port so that you can get an EAD+AP. What you are looking for is the immediate 180 days AOS pending clock that gives AC21 job-portability protections. The DF dates will not prevent the age-out of minor. If you already have an EAD, then it is not wise to down port unless you are sure that the FA dates are current and will stay current till GC is adjudicated (4 to 6 months).

It is my expectation that EB3I dates will continue to keep moving faster than EB2I as long as Indian consulates are closed. Last year about 1600/2800 EB3I was due to CP demand from outside of USA. Those people in India on EB3 never got a chance to file for CP because of COVID situation. The moment Consulates open, the EB3I dates will stall and most likely retrogress. That is what you need to watch out for.

I have applied for AOS in Feb 2012. Hence undecided if I should down port. Will have to make a decision before the holiday season kicks in if I have to take the advantage of downport.

[idliman]

I have applied for AOS in Feb 2012. Hence undecided if I should down port. Will have to make a decision before the holiday season kicks in if I have to take the advantage of downport.
If you are not looking for EAD, then either a) Do a completely new PERM in EB3 if you had used AC21 portability. b) Do a EB3 using the existing PERM (original copy) if you are with the same employer. I will not touch existing EB2 as there is a risk of denial with down-porting. My advice is either do a completely new PERM or use original PERM copy for EB3 or stay put in EB2.

There are many here who think it is not worthwhile to port. Wait and watch movement till December. Hopefully, you will be current then.

Disclaimer: I am not an attorney. So please DYOR.

[vsivarama]

We clearly do not know how the dates are going to move next year because of various factors (USCIS issues, Zero visibility to pending inventory etc.). I wanted to ask the experts what do you see as a realistic spillover numbers for EB2 (horizontal + vertical) next year, based on 110K FB visas being available? I was thinking of a realistic estimate of 40K. Wanted to see what the experts think on this issue?

[srimurthy]

We clearly do not know how the dates are going to move next year because of various factors (USCIS issues, Zero visibility to pending inventory etc.). I wanted to ask the experts what do you see as a realistic spillover numbers for EB2 (horizontal + vertical) next year, based on 110K FB visas being available? I was thinking of a realistic estimate of 40K. Wanted to see what the experts think on this issue?

Right now it is not even clear if the 16K from the FB that was counted in this year has been allocated and used! And predicting dates based on the 40K or so when those numbers are not even considered until Q4, and with a big question mark on USCIS and DOS having the intention to use and allocated all the numbers sincerely any predictions right now are up in the air. Best keep it grounded and consider we will get the 2800 allocated fully and figure the dates for those. And then if USCIS and DOS performance is good next Jun then we can start predicting. Right now we are not even moving the dates to get the 485 application counts.

[vsivarama]

I am specifically asking the experts from staying away from making any predictions. Would like to know the likely spillover numbers for both EB2 and EB3 as it may give some perspective to people wanting to downgrade. Like I said it's up to the agencies to whether apply or not to apply spill over numbers. But what it cannot do is honor spillover for EB3 and NOT for EB2 or any other categories.

[monsieur]

@monsieur don’t need to down port now. When your PD is current you can file i140 for eb3 and Aos concurrently . At least that is what I read. Read October i485 2018 thread in tract it.. couple of people mentioned that

Thanks but as I said Fragomen paralegal flat out denied my downporting without new perm so my firm will not proceed. I will just wait it out and see. As I haven't seen any USCIS publication stating ohterwise I don't think so I will be able to convince my firm to pressure Fragomen. Internal staff treat Fragomen as SME and will not go against it.

[qesehmk]

Thanks but as I said Fragomen paralegal flat out denied my downporting without new perm so my firm will not proceed. I will just wait it out and see. As I haven't seen any USCIS publication stating ohterwise I don't think so I will be able to convince my firm to pressure Fragomen. Internal staff treat Fragomen as SME and will not go against it.
Unless you retain your own lawyer, you should always expect the lawyer to do what is best in the interest of their client i.e. the company in this case. In other words - Fragomen can't be trusted ... but you may or may not have a choice here.

[gcvijay]

Unless you retain your own lawyer, you should always expect the lawyer to do what is best in the interest of their client i.e. the company in this case. In other words - Fragomen can't be trusted ... but you may or may not have a choice here.

15 yrs wait coming to end. Green Card approved and hoping to have green card in mail soon. Best wishes to everyone.

[gkjppp]

15 yrs wait coming to end. Green Card approved and hoping to have green card in mail soon. Best wishes to everyone.


Congratulations !!! Have a Green life.

[AceMan]

15 yrs wait coming to end. Green Card approved and hoping to have green card in mail soon. Best wishes to everyone.


Congrats my friend.

[usvisas]

Congrats gcvijay! What was your PD?

[getsaby]

Visa Category:
EB2
Country of Chargeability:
India
Visa Priority Date:
07/02/2009

[gcvijay]

Actually I downgraded and applied it in EB3 last year and completed my interview Dec 2019.




Visa Category:
EB2
Country of Chargeability:
India
Visa Priority Date:
07/02/2009

[longwaitgigu]

Question
Will new EO signed on August 3, will it not affect new perm applications and I 140 for labor market?
So if anyone wants to upgrade or downgrade will it scrutinize them more and increase the risk of denial?

[rabp77]

15 yrs wait coming to end. Green Card approved and hoping to have green card in mail soon. Best wishes to everyone.

Congratulations gcvijay. We celebrate your freedom.

[IamGSN]

Actually I downgraded and applied it in EB3 last year and completed my interview Dec 2019.

Congrats Vijay. Your case gives some hope for me. I am just 7 days away (7/9) . But my Interview was cancelled due to Pandemic. I haven't seen any change to my status for rescheduling.

Did any body in the forum got GC without interview recently?

[rabp77]

Congrats Vijay. Your case gives some hope for me. I am just 7 days away (7/9) . But my Interview was cancelled due to Pandemic. I haven't seen any change to my status for rescheduling.

Did any body in the forum got GC without interview recently?

Trackitt does refer a few eb cases that were approved without interview. So it looks like that is happening in certain cases.

[rabp77]

Question
Will new EO signed on August 3, will it not affect new perm applications and I 140 for labor market?
So if anyone wants to upgrade or downgrade will it scrutinize them more and increase the risk of denial?

I believe we will need to wait to see how this is applied. It's a bit early to say for sure, but I don't think anyone can rule out a possible impact at the moment.

[Zenzone]

15 yrs wait coming to end. Green Card approved and hoping to have green card in mail soon. Best wishes to everyone.

Congrats Mate!

[getsaby]

Do you think folks who replied in 2018 Medical RFE, specifically EB2 PD between Jul 09 to Dec 09 will get another medical RFE?

USCIS received my medical on Aug, 15th 2018, my PD EB2-I, 10/19/2009.

[need4speed]

Do you think folks who replied in 2018 Medical RFE, specifically EB2 PD between Jul 09 to Dec 09 will get another medical RFE?

USCIS received my medical on Aug, 15th 2018, my PD EB2-I, 10/19/2009.

What matters is the doctors signature date and not the received date. Not sure if this date is strictly enforced.

[imdeng]

Not sure if your impression is correct. I had the impression that USCIS considers medicals valid for 2 years from the date they receive it. Doctor's sig is valid for some time (don't remember exactly - 6 months?) for USCIS to receive it - but once USCIS receives it, the two year clock starts.


What matters is the doctors signature date and not the received date. Not sure if this date is strictly enforced.

[Spectator]

Not sure if your impression is correct. I had the impression that USCIS considers medicals valid for 2 years from the date they receive it. Doctor's sig is valid for some time (don't remember exactly - 6 months?) for USCIS to receive it - but once USCIS receives it, the two year clock starts.

It used to be that the validity was 1 year from USCIS receipt, as long as the Civil Surgeon's signature was not more than a year old.

Under the new system, the Civil Surgeon's signature must not be more than 60 days old and validity is 2 years from the Civil Surgeon's signature date.

The full explanation is contained in the USCIS Policy Manual - Volume 8 - Chapter 4 (https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/volume-8-part-b-chapter-4)

Here's an excerpt:


4. Validity Period of Form I-693 (Including Use of Prior Versions)

Evidentiary Value

A person seeking an immigration benefit and who is subject to the health-related grounds of inadmissibility must establish that he or she is not inadmissible on health-related grounds. [20] In general, those applying for immigration benefits while in the United States must use Form I-693 to show they are free from any conditions that would render them inadmissible under the health-related grounds.

An officer may determine that the applicant has met the burden of proof required to establish that he or she is free from a medical condition that would render the applicant inadmissible on health-related grounds if all of the following criteria are met:


A USCIS-designated civil surgeon performed the immigration medical examination in accordance with HHS regulations;

The civil surgeon and the applicant properly completed the current version of Form I-693;

The Form I-693 that the applicant submitted is signed by a civil surgeon no more than 60 days before the date the applicant filed an application for the underlying immigration benefit;

The Form I-693 establishes that the applicant does not have a Class A medical condition and has complied with the vaccination requirements or is granted a waiver; and

USCIS issues a decision on the underlying immigration benefit application no more than 2 years after the date the civil surgeon signed Form I-693.


In general, if any one of the above criteria is not met, the applicant has not met the burden of proof required to establish that he or she is free of a medical condition that would render the applicant inadmissible to the United States on health-related grounds. In this case, the officer should follow standard operating procedures regarding issuance of a denial or an RFE or Notice of Intent to Deny (NOID) to address the deficiency.

[imdeng]

Thanks Spec. As always - you are the last word.

[longwaitgigu]

It seems like second coronavirus relief bill has stalled and it had uscis funding budget too. Does it mean uscis will furlough and slow down application process?

[usvisas]

I came across these "Wait List Reports" for 2019, 2018 and 2017 and trying to understand those numbers that look very high to me. Is this effectively inventory for CP cases.

EB3I as of NOV 1 2019 = 20,751
EB3I as of NOV 1 2018 = 21,385
EB3I as of NOV 1 2017 = 21,962

EB2I as of NOV 1 2019 = 15,651
EB2I as of NOV 1 2018 = 13,387
EB2I as of NOV 1 2017 = 10,961

The 2019 report is available from the below link; rest just click directly

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics.html

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2019.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2018.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2017.pdf

[qesehmk]

It seems like second coronavirus relief bill has stalled and it had uscis funding budget too. Does it mean uscis will furlough and slow down application process?

Probably not since some official testified to congress that they have a 1.1B surplus.

[oraclept]

I came across these "Wait List Reports" for 2019, 2018 and 2017 and trying to understand those numbers that look very high to me. Is this effectively inventory for CP cases.

EB3I as of NOV 1 2019 = 20,751
EB3I as of NOV 1 2018 = 21,385
EB3I as of NOV 1 2017 = 21,962

EB2I as of NOV 1 2019 = 15,651
EB2I as of NOV 1 2018 = 13,387
EB2I as of NOV 1 2017 = 10,961

The 2019 report is available from the below link; rest just click directly

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics.html

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2019.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2018.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2017.pdf

India
EB1 : 1,282
EB2: 15,651
EB3: 20,751

37k is total number Indians waiting for GC here in US and elsewhere?
with So all the above should be wiped ??

[Spectator]

I came across these "Wait List Reports" for 2019, 2018 and 2017 and trying to understand those numbers that look very high to me. Is this effectively inventory for CP cases.

EB3I as of NOV 1 2019 = 20,751
EB3I as of NOV 1 2018 = 21,385
EB3I as of NOV 1 2017 = 21,962

EB2I as of NOV 1 2019 = 15,651
EB2I as of NOV 1 2018 = 13,387
EB2I as of NOV 1 2017 = 10,961

The 2019 report is available from the below link; rest just click directly

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics.html

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2019.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2018.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2017.pdf

Yes, this is the number of cases at NVC waiting for Consular Processing.

The I-140 would have specified CP, or the beneficiary specified it later and asked USCIS to transfer the I-140.

The number includes any dependents that were mentioned in the I-140 petition.

Remember that these numbers include all PD that NVC have received in time to prepare the report, not those that are current in the VB.

So, the 15,651 figure for EB2-I covers c. 10 PD years of I-140 petitions received by NVC. That averages to just over 1,500 per PD year which doesn't seem too huge a figure.

The combined number for EB2-I & EB3-I is c. 36k, including most dependents. Considering PERM approvals for India that cover that period are several hundreds of thousands, it doesn't seem crazy high.

Given not all CP cases will proceed, I would only treat the numbers as indicative.

[usvisas]

Thanks Spec. By "not those that are current in the VB", you mean it would include an EB2/3I I-140 CP with PD of 2019 that has never ever been current?

[Pundit Arjun]

Probably not since some official testified to congress that they have a 1.1B surplus.

We never know for sure. They always find a reason or another to not move the dates. Lets wait and worry about other things that we can control.
Do enjoy some of the Shayari that Q and couple other old timers have written, worry about how to plan for kids education, life insurance, retirement planning etc.,

Hamara number aayega - sometime in the future :)

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. By "not those that are current in the VB", you mean it would include an EB2/3I I-140 CP with PD of 2019 that has never ever been current?

Correct.

It would include any approved I-140 where the applicant had selected Consular Processing.

In addition, if the applicant chose Consular Processing at a later stage, upon approval of an I-824, USCIS would send the I-140 to NVC.


The petitions of applicants who will be processed at an overseas post are forwarded by USCIS to the Department of State; applicants in categories subject to numerical limit are registered on the visa waiting list. Each case is assigned a priority (i.e., registration) date based on the filing date accorded to the petition.
....
As such, the following figures ONLY reflect petitions which the Department of State has received, and do not include the significant number of applications held with the USCIS Offices.

The following figures have been compiled from the NVC report submitted to the Department on November 1, 2019, and show the number of immigrant visa applicants on the waiting list in the various preferences and subcategories subject to numerical limit. All figures reflect persons registered under each respective numerical limitation, i.e., the totals represent not only principal applicants or petition beneficiaries, but their spouses and children entitled to derivative status under INA 203(d) as well.

where "petition" for EB1 - EB3 refers to an I-140. It would be I360 for EB4 and I526 for EB5.

[usvisas]

Got it Guru Spec!

[rabp77]

any guesses on how much EB3 and EB2 I will move in the next bulletin ?

[vsivarama]

any guesses on how much EB3 and EB2 I will move in the next bulletin ?


Not much. An educated guess based on the furlough news below.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2020/08/11/covid-19-stimulus-deal-us-immigration-services-plans-furloughs/3344178001/

[usvisas]

Hi Spec, can you please help me with these two questions:

1. In the visa bulletins why do we have this group of countries: "EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS" as oversubscribed under EB charts. Going by the annual number of visa's given to them, they are very less than 2800 (7%). Same for Vietnam. EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS - have been in the charts since May 2016 and Vietnam since May 2018. Also, why are these three countries together = EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS?

2. Not sure if this a silly one, but its not clear to me. In visa statistics page each year, does table V (under EB section which is Part 2) - include both consular and non-consular visas granted AND table VI - provides only the consular numbers?

Table V is titled:
Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State of Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2019

Table VI is titled:
Preference Immigrant Visas Issued (by Foreign State of Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2019

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2019.html

[Spectator]

Replies inline.

Hi Spec, can you please help me with these two questions:


1. In the visa bulletins why do we have this group of countries: "EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS" as oversubscribed under EB charts. Going by the annual number of visa's given to them, they are very less than 2800 (7%). Same for Vietnam. EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS - have been in the charts since May 2016 and Vietnam since May 2018. Also, why are these three countries together = EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS?

EL SALVADOR,GUATEMALA, HONDURAS have been separated from ROW because of high use in EB4, primarily due to Juvenile Court Dependent cases aka Unaccompanied Minors. This has necessitated an earlier cut off date in EB4 than for ROW.
In the May 2016 VB it said:


E. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, AND HONDURAS EMPLOYMENT-BASED FOURTH (E4) AND CERTAIN RELIGIOUS WORKERS (SR) PREFERENCE CATEGORIES

There is currently extremely high demand in the E4 and SR categories for applicants from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras. This demand is primarily for Juvenile Court Dependent cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services for adjustment of status. Pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act, this requires implementing E4 and SR Application Final Action Dates for these countries, which will allow the Department to hold worldwide number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2016 annual limits. Any forward movement during the remainder of FY-2016 is unlikely although no specific prediction is possible.

A determination as to whether these countries will remain subject to E4 and SR final application dates under the FY-2017 annual numerical limitation will be made in early September. Future visa availability will depend on a combination of demand for numbers being reported each month, and the extent to which otherwise unused numbers become available.

Vietnam has been separated from ROW because of high use in EB5. This has necessitated an earlier cut off date in EB5 than for ROW.
In the May 2018 VB it said:


E. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE VIETNAM EMPLOYMENT FIFTH PREFERENCE CATEGORY

Continued heavy applicant demand will result in the Vietnam Employment Fifth preference (EB-5) category reaching the per-country annual limit during April. As a result it has been necessary to impose a final action date on this preference for the month of May to control number use for the remainder of the fiscal year. It can be expected that the Vietnam Employment Fifth preference category will remain subject to a final action date for the foreseeable future.



2. Not sure if this a silly one, but its not clear to me. In visa statistics page each year, does table V (under EB section which is Part 2) - include both consular and non-consular visas granted AND table VI - provides only the consular numbers?

Table V is titled:
Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status Subject to Numerical Limitations (by Foreign State of Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2019

Table VI is titled:
Preference Immigrant Visas Issued (by Foreign State of Chargeability): Fiscal Year 2019

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2019.html

You have that exactly correct.

Table V has all visas used, whether from AOS or CP.

Table VI only shows only CP numbers.

[usvisas]

Thank you again Guru Spec!

[srimurthy]

Replies inline.

Why are unaccompanied children counted in EB4?

[H1b2006]

again what shall we infer, for SEPT,OCT,NOV,DEC Visa bulletins?

feb 2011 pd.

when shall VO reopen the dates to build inventory for eb3i

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Why are unaccompanied children counted in EB4?

https://www.uscis.gov/working-in-the-united-states/permanent-workers/employment-based-immigration-fourth-preference-eb-4/special-immigrant-juveniles

Petition and Application Processing

If an immigrant visa is immediately available, you may generally file your Form I-360 and Form I-485 at the same time. Immigrant visas for SIJs come from the employment-based fourth preference (EB-4) immigrant visa category for special immigrants. For more information on immigrant visa availability, go to our Visa Availability and Priority Dates page.

[EB2IndSep09]

again what shall we infer, for SEPT,OCT,NOV,DEC Visa bulletins?

feb 2011 pd.

when shall VO reopen the dates to build inventory for eb3i

Many have gotten themselves into quite a predicament inferring the dates movement and that is not going to stop people like me :D.
Based on the past 6 months data, CO is very conservatively moving dates however, SEP bulletin is going to reveal some insight into whether he expects any SO and if any would he like to put them into use.
OCT bulletin is going to be the deal breaker where the DFF and FAD should get close (For both EB3I and EB2I) that is going to drive the inventory build up in subsequent bulletins.

Here comes the real challenge.
USCIS might not honor the DFF even if CO moves because the org is okay to furlough their own but not take any new applications even in this dire situation.
However they might not be able to do this for longer time as 97% of the organization's funding comes from Fees. So gates have to be opened at some point in time so hang in there.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Many have gotten themselves into quite a predicament inferring the dates movement and that is not going to stop people like me :D.
Based on the past 6 months data, CO is very conservatively moving dates however, SEP bulletin is going to reveal some insight into whether he expects any SO and if any would he like to put them into use.
OCT bulletin is going to be the deal breaker where the DFF and FAD should get close (For both EB3I and EB2I) that is going to drive the inventory build up in subsequent bulletins.

Here comes the real challenge.
USCIS might not honor the DFF even if CO moves because the org is okay to furlough their own but not take any new applications even in this dire situation.
However they might not be able to do this for longer time as 97% of the organization's funding comes from Fees. So gates have to be opened at some point in time so hang in there.

This is obviously a pattern with this Admin:

Wreck the EPA from inside out: loosen regulations
Wreck the Dept of Edu: Push charter schools
Wreck the USCIS/DoS: Reduce immigration
Wreck USPS: Restrict mail-in ballots....

the list goes on.

[srinivas20]

Hello All,

There are good number of Seniors in this group and I am now in a confusing situation. please help

Employer A filed i140 and approved with Sept 2009 EB2 and never filed i485 ( no EAD and AP) waiting for dates to be current ( THIS IS MY EX employer who may help me file i148 when dates are current

(This is my CURRENT EMPLOYER )
Employer B filed PERM in EB3 and waiting for PERM to be approved in a month or two (I know i can port the Sept 2009 Eb2 to this when filling i140) as this is current but might end up waiting for some time to get i140 approved

Looking into all the situation at this point. Please advise best of your knowledge on which route I should go. Emp 1 or Emp2

[srinivas20]

There are good number of Seniors in this group and I am now in a confusing situation.

Employer A filed i140 and approved with Sept 2009 EB2 and never filed i485 ( no EAD and AP) waiting for dates to be current ( THIS IS MY EX employer who may help me file i148 when dates are current

(This is my CURRENT EMPLOYER )
Employer B filed PERM in EB3 and waiting for PERM to be approved in a month or two (I know i can port the Sept 2009 Eb2 to this when filling i140)

Looking into all the situation at this point. Please advise best of your knowledge on which route I should go (Employer A or Employer B)

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If I have to take a wild guess regarding Sep VB,

EB1/2/3 ROW all Current
EB1I - Moved to Aug 2018
EB3I - Moved to Dec 09
EB2I - Left languishing in the gutter

[vsivarama]

EB2I - Left languishing in the gutter


Lol! Maybe CO ought to adopt your language. EB3I: We throw you some crumbs now and then, EB2I: You are royally screwed!!

[kb2013]

My Sept VB guess, EB2I will move by a week, EB3l by a month, accelerating downgrade rat race.

[EB2IndSep09]

We will get to know only when VB is published, and I think SEP VB is not going to be out till last week or earliest by next Friday 21st.

[jimmys]

If I have to take a wild guess regarding Sep VB,

EB1/2/3 ROW all Current
EB1I - Moved to Aug 2018
EB3I - Moved to Dec 09
EB2I - Left languishing in the gutter

If the furloughs are to happen at USCIS by the end of August, I doubt there will be any movement.

[idliman]

If the furloughs are to happen at USCIS by the end of August, I doubt there will be any movement.
Are we looking for the VB to be released by next Friday? DT had promised his merit based EO (that will cover DACA too), lately there is no news on that. If it is still in works, maybe the VB will come only after that. It looks like the FB to EB spillover will happen in October. CO should have great visibility of how many GCs are in play and move the dates.

[EB2IndSep09]

Are we looking for the VB to be released by next Friday? DT had promised his merit based EO (that will cover DACA too), lately there is no news on that. If it is still in works, maybe the VB will come only after that. It looks like the FB to EB spillover will happen in October. CO should have great visibility of how many GCs are in play and move the dates.

At this point in time it is only furlough that is in play for releasing the VB so my earlier guess was based on the historic VB publishing dates and earliest going to be next Friday.

[TB12TB12]

There must be so many EB2I cases that have EADs between July 2009 to 2012 when EB2I became current for short time. Since those cases have been adjudicated already and now only need new medicals & employment letters, it should clear out that EB2I batch pretty fast with SO.


CO should have applied the 25K+ visa numbers that are going to be wasted to this batch of people. I wonder why he did not do that. Dearth of processing capacity is not the sole reason. It would have cleared the backlog till 2010 easily.

[H1b2006]

My Guess EB3I DEC09 --SEPT bulletin
EB3I May10 --OCT Bulletin
EB3I OCT10 --NOV Bulletin
EB3I MAR11--DEC Bulletin

[longwaitgigu]

My Guess EB3I DEC09 --SEPT bulletin
EB3I May10 --OCT Bulletin
EB3I OCT10 --NOV Bulletin
EB3I MAR11--DEC Bulletin
That's way too optimistic prediction for eb3
IMO it's not reaching march 2011 at least till oct 2021

[TB12TB12]

My Guess EB3I DEC09 --SEPT bulletin
EB3I May10 --OCT Bulletin
EB3I OCT10 --NOV Bulletin
EB3I MAR11--DEC Bulletin

EB3 other than India & China is at April 2019. Not many more I-140s would have been approved before pandemic started biting hard. So regular 40K EB3 quota plus 30K from the anticipated 110K SO which we might see from FY21 could push EB3I.


Porting from EB3 to EB2 also started big time from around 2010 timeframe. Many of them got lucky during 2012. Unless EB2 folks start downgrading fast EB3I will move extremely fast. Still March 2011 is very optimistic.

[1312011_eb2I]

What is the logic behind March 2011 specifically? why not JAN 2011 or April 2011 ?

[getsaby]

Please use your psychic powers for EB2-I junta too

[H1b2006]

Just a 5months increment. when spill over is applied it can be anywhere between 3-5months advancement per bulletin without spillover we are seeing 1 month advancement.

[jimmys]

What is the logic behind March 2011 specifically? why not JAN 2011 or April 2011 ?

Since it's just a guesswork, people always try to cover their PDs. A lot of people here do it in the name of predictions.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Please use your psychic powers for EB2-I junta too

Feb 29, 2010

[idliman]

Sept 2020 VB is out. Only EB1-I FA (+21 days) had moved.

[H1b2006]

very bad. hope better luck next bulletin.

[AceMan]

Sept 2020 VB is out. Only EB1-I FA (+21 days) had moved.

Compared to last year's September bulletin, dates did not retrogress. That's a positive !!!

[usvisas]

Yea, that is positive. Reading in trackitt that SR responses received yesterday and today by both EB3I and EB3ROW guys say - "your application is currently pending as the priority date for your immigrant visa number has retrogressed [was not available] and is not available at this time. Therefore your application will be held in abeyance until visa number becomes available"

Wonder how many EB3's they have given so far out of the 44,759 numerical limit for FY2020.

[longwaitgigu]

I have a question for spectator
Can CO used the wasted 25000 GC for October 2020 or he is bind with FB to EB spillover and count as 250k in total ( 25000 goes waste and not given to FB as 226k is annual quota)
Dates of filing is expected to move by November when he gets clarity of all numbers right?

[Spectator]

Yea, that is positive. Reading in trackitt that SR responses received yesterday and today by both EB3I and EB3ROW guys say - "your application is currently pending as the priority date for your immigrant visa number has retrogressed [was not available] and is not available at this time. Therefore your application will be held in abeyance until visa number becomes available"

Wonder how many EB3's they have given so far out of the 44,759 numerical limit for FY2020.

The September 2020 VB announced the official Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit is 156,253 having finally received the required information from USCIS on July 31st.

So, to be very pedantic, the numerical limit for EB1 to EB3 is 44,688.

I'm constantly amazed (or perhaps not) that it takes USCIS so long to provide information to DOS.

[bloddy1]

Compared to last year's September bulletin, dates did not retrogress. That's a positive !!!
Yes you are right but Peanuts and Breadcrumbs for us ...:)

[vsivarama]

The September 2020 VB announced the official Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit is 156,253 having finally received the required information from USCIS on July 31st.


So does this mean USCIS used 16K of the spillover 25K and were unable to use the last 9K?

[Spectator]

I have a question for spectator
Can CO used the wasted 25000 GC for October 2020 or he is bind with FB to EB spillover and count as 250k in total ( 25000 goes waste and not given to FB as 226k is annual quota)
Dates of filing is expected to move by November when he gets clarity of all numbers right?

The FY ends on September 30, 2020.

CO can not carry FY2020 unused EB visas over to EB in FY2021 without a change in the law.

Whether FB could benefit from unused EB visas depends on the calculation of 480,000 minus IR visas issued in FY2020.

Usually, IR approvals are around 450-500k so the minimum figure of 226k for FB is a certainty.

If IR approvals in FY2020 are unusually low due to COVID-19, there's a possibility that 480k minus IR approvals plus unused EB visas could result in a figure higher than 226k for the FB allocation in FY2021.

[longwaitgigu]

Higher than 226k- do u mean for oct 2020( EB quota 2021). Is there any chance of getting IR spillover to EB or just whatever remains from 226k.
And again is there a possibility ( my pessimistic view) that CO and USCIS waits for dates of filing to move conservatively as they expect huge demand when consulates reopen and EO becomes ineffective start jan 2021

[qesehmk]

I'm constantly amazed (or perhaps not) that it takes USCIS so long to provide information to DOS.

I am amazed that DoS chooses to cede ground to USCIS on an issue where they don't need to. Visa numbers are controlled by DOS it shouldn't need USCIS advice on availability of numbers.

[Spectator]

I am amazed that DoS chooses to cede ground to USCIS on an issue where they don't need to. Visa numbers are controlled by DOS it shouldn't need USCIS advice on availability of numbers.

DOS need figures from DHS that DHS control.


the number of aliens who were paroled into the United States under section 1182(d)(5) of this title in the second preceding fiscal year-

(A) who did not depart from the United States (without advance parole) within 365 days; and

(B) who (i) did not acquire the status of aliens lawfully admitted to the United States for permanent residence in the two preceding fiscal years, or (ii) acquired such status in such years under a provision of law (other than subsection (b)) which exempts such adjustment from the numerical limitation on the worldwide level of immigration under this section.

[getsaby]

So in layman term, what does Sep bulletin tells about the future, or do we have to wait for Oct bulletin now to make any sense how 2021 will play with us

[Spectator]

Higher than 226k- do u mean for oct 2020( EB quota 2021). Is there any chance of getting IR spillover to EB or just whatever remains from 226k.
And again is there a possibility ( my pessimistic view) that CO and USCIS waits for dates of filing to move conservatively as they expect huge demand when consulates reopen and EO becomes ineffective start jan 2021

I don't understand what you are trying to say.

I think you need to research how the law proscribes the calculation of the FB & EB annual numerical limits. INA 201 (8 U.S.C. 1151) Worldwide level of immigration (https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title8-section1151&num=0&edition=prelim).
There's some information earlier in this thread.

As the law currently stands, EB loses any unused visas for the FY. The same is true of FB.

In the next FY any unused FB visas in the previous year are added to the EB limit.

If EB loses 25k in FY2020, they are likely to get 100k+ extra visas in FY2021 due to unused FB visas in FY2020.
FB would have the 25k added into their calculation, but might not see any increase above the 226k minimum limit.

If we hadn't had the problems this year, then the 25k may not have been wasted, but then neither would the 100k+ FB visas.

If Congress pass a law to temporarily allow EB to retain wasted EB visa and FB to temporarily retain wasted FB visas, then EB would benefit from 25k extra visa in FY2021. FB would benefit from 100k+ extra visas in FY2021.

You can have jam today, or jam tomorrow, but you can't have jam on both days.

[usvisas]

Hi Spec - How much does CP depend on USCIS - fully, to some extent or not at all? (I am trying to see impact of potential furloughs on when CPs may begin)

[qesehmk]

DOS need figures from DHS that DHS control.
Wow ...thanks. Talk about intricacies and complexities.

Dont you think such small kinks quite effectively chip away DoS' power? Its a rhetorical question anyway ... you don't have to answer.

Thanks for the great insight.

[longwaitgigu]

Thankyou for your reply
Just one more clarification
Your post
they are likely to get 100k+ extra visas in FY2021 due to unused FB visas in FY2020.
Correction 140k ( annual limit for EB ) + extra visas in FY 2021 due to unused FB visas in FY 2020
I dont understand where 100k comes from or is 140k?

[Spectator]

Thankyou for your reply
Just one more clarification
Your post
they are likely to get 100k+ extra visas in FY2021 due to unused FB visas in FY2020.
Correction 140k ( annual limit for EB ) + extra visas in FY 2021 due to unused FB visas in FY 2020
I dont understand where 100k comes from or is 140k?

FB seems likely to under use their 226k allocation in FY2020 by 100k+ (or at least that is what people are saying).

If that were the case, in FY2021 EB allocation would be 140k + 100k+ = 240k+. That assumes Congress does not amend the law.

You said that EB might under use their FY2020 allocation by 25k.

In that case, the FB allocation would be 480k - IR approvals in FY2020 - some parolees + 25k.

If that calculation comes to less than 226k, then the FB allocation would be set at the minimum 226k.

I hope that makes it clear.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec - How much does CP depend on USCIS - fully, to some extent or not at all? (I am trying to see impact of potential furloughs on when CPs may begin)

I can't say I'm any great expert on the Consular process.

I don't think DHS has any influence on the process at the consulates (medical, interview, visa issuance).

DOS is reliant on USCIS to forward approved petitions to NVC where the applicant has chosen CP (I-130, I-140, I-360, I-526 etc).

NVC (under DOS) can then process the petitions and ask applicants for information once the Filing Date becomes current.

Not relevant, but I suppose DHS get involved again when the immigrant lands and a GC needs to be sent to them. They should get an I-551 stamp in their passport valid for a year anyway.

As I say - not really an expert.

[longwaitgigu]

FB seems likely to under use their 226k allocation in FY2020 by 100k+ (or at least that is what people are saying).

If that were the case, in FY2021 EB allocation would be 140k + 100k+ = 240k+. That assumes Congress does not amend the law.

You said that EB might under use their FY2020 allocation by 25k.

In that case, the FB allocation would be 480k - IR approvals in FY2020 - some parolees + 25k.

If that calculation comes to less than 226k, then the FB allocation would be set at the minimum 226k.

I hope that makes it clear.
Thankyou for clarifying
So can we expect movement of filing dates to atleast end of 2010 from oct 2020( if 240k materializes) for eb2 and eb3? Or they wait to use till last quarter of 2021.
Is it pessimistic predictable that CO might have conservative movement till December ( as Consulate reopens and demand increases, EO ineffective)?

[vsivarama]

Thankyou for clarifying
So can we expect movement of filing dates to atleast end of 2010 from oct 2020( if 240k materializes) for eb2 and eb3? Or they wait to use till last quarter of 2021.
Is it pessimistic predictable that CO might have conservative movement till December ( as Consulate reopens and demand increases, EO ineffective)?

I am not sure why you are hyper focused on Consulate re-openings. CP cases in a normal year make up around 25K of the total 140K. The Major questions would be i) Will 100K spillover be processed as per the law next year and ii) How is USCIS layoffs going to affect case processing. If there is an intent to process 100K spillover number, then I do NOT think CO will be conservative as USCIS has to manage the case load. It is not realistic for them to process 110K visas in the first 3 quarters and then the process the rest 130K in the last quarter.

[jimmys]

Hi Spec - How much does CP depend on USCIS - fully, to some extent or not at all? (I am trying to see impact of potential furloughs on when CPs may begin)

CP numbers usage depends on approval of I-140,etc petitions from USCIS. The furloughs may affect overall I-140,etc petitions approvals. But, there will be a lot of pent up demand for CP i.e. people who already have their I-140s,etc approved, when the consulates reopen. And, the pent up demand will run for several months if not many.

Meanwhile, while the consulates were closed in 2020, the USCIS has been operational to some extent. They would have approved a lot of CP I-140s,I-130s etc in the last 6 months as well. The USCIS furloughs are expected to be minimum of 30 days. And, if that's the case, they comeback on Oct 1,2020 then USCIS will resume I-140 approvals. Overall I-140,etc approvals for CP may not suffer great deal.

If the consulates stay open starting Jan 2021, then FB may use 75-80%(or more) of their annual numbers for FY 21.

[longwaitgigu]

Why I am hyper focused
Coz once EO becomes ineffective and consulate opens, I do not see horizontal spillover from ROW coming to India and china in huge amounts in last quarter as EB3 ROW and india also uses majority of chunck through CP, which makes 250k EB GC a waste for AOS.
i) 100k spillover should materialize per INA law as heroes act ( which is never going to make it) and house bill- which never got introduced to stop the spillover
2) uscis is going in surplus per senator and I hope opening dates of filling in October will increase revenue as fees increases too which further should prevent furlough

[usvisas]

CP numbers usage depends on approval of I-140,etc petitions from USCIS. The furloughs may affect overall I-140,etc petitions approvals. But, there will be a lot of pent up demand for CP i.e. people who already have their I-140s,etc approved, when the consulates reopen. And, the pent up demand will run for several months if not many.

Meanwhile, while the consulates were closed in 2020, the USCIS has been operational to some extent. They would have approved a lot of CP I-140s,I-130s etc in the last 6 months as well. The USCIS furloughs are expected to be minimum of 30 days. And, if that's the case, they comeback on Oct 1,2020 then USCIS will resume I-140 approvals. Overall I-140,etc approvals for CP may not suffer great deal.

If the consulates stay open starting Jan 2021, then FB may use 75-80%(or more) of their annual numbers for FY 21.

Makes sense. Won't that pent up demand be much much slower to fulfill compared to the normal due to very high number of interview requests at the consulates (all backlogged / waiting H-1Bs, B1's, B2's, and so on...)

[usvisas]

Why I am hyper focused
2) uscis is going in surplus per senator and I hope opening dates of filling in October will increase revenue as fees increases too which further should prevent furlough

remember as someone said earlier - this furlough is a political issue not a financial issue.

[vsivarama]

Why I am hyper focused
Coz once EO becomes ineffective and consulate opens, I do not see horizontal spillover from ROW coming to India and china in huge amounts in last quarter as EB3 ROW and india also uses majority of chunck through CP, which makes 250k EB GC a waste for AOS.
i) 100k spillover should materialize per INA law as heroes act ( which is never going to make it) and house bill- which never got introduced to stop the spillover
2) uscis is going in surplus per senator and I hope opening dates of filling in October will increase revenue as fees increases too which further should prevent furlough

With the current economic climate the EB applications will come down as evidenced in previous downturns. So there will be a horizontal spillover for all the EB 1/2/3 categories(a good decent number). The real question is the intent from immigration agencies. A few thousand visas were wasted this year and there is nothing to stop that from happening again.

[idliman]

Year 2020 is ending up with a disappointment for EB2I and to EB3I (to a lesser extent). EB1I had a lottery year courtesy of COVID. EB2I had lot of promises, but had an anti-climatic finish (courtesy of the Political appointees & other villains). So what can we expect in the beginning of 2021 (Oct 2020 VB)? With the political appointees are still ruling, what is the minimum movement required by INA for EB2I / EB3I?

From approval trends, almost all of pre-adjudicated cases in NSC should clear (EB2I / EB3I) before October. TSC may end up with about 1000 or less applicants still remaining in pre-adjudicated queue (EB2I / EB3I).

[qesehmk]

As I say - not really an expert.
That's understatement of the decade on this site at least. I haven't seen anybody come close to Spec in terms of details he can provide. Bow to Spec!

[jimmys]

Year 2020 is ending up with a disappointment for EB2I and to EB3I (to a lesser extent). EB1I had a lottery year courtesy of COVID. EB2I had lot of promises, but had an anti-climatic finish (courtesy of the Political appointees & other villains). So what can we expect in the beginning of 2021 (Oct 2020 VB)? With the political appointees are still ruling, what is the minimum movement required by INA for EB2I / EB3I?

From approval trends, almost all of pre-adjudicated cases in NSC should clear (EB2I / EB3I) before October. TSC may end up with about 1000 or less applicants still remaining in pre-adjudicated queue (EB2I / EB3I).

The filing dates for both EB2I/EB3I will go very deep in 2010 or beyond in Oct-Dec 2020 quarter. USCIS can collect a lot of fees(updated fees starting October. 50% increase for I-485 AOS.) through filings and will help them to alleviate some financial pressure for FY2021. How much they move their FADs are a different issue altogether but filing dates will move for both categories.

[H1b2006]

for the worst case i will assume dates will not move in 2020/2021. l will hope atleast by 2022/2023 i can make it.

Feb 2011 eb3

[alpha0]

for the worst case i will assume dates will not move in 2020/2021. l will hope atleast by 2022/2023 i can make it.

Feb 2011 eb3

Who knows? This prediction game is meaningless. If we go by USCIS logic, filing date was something which will be final action date in next 8-12 months. They put 1 Jul 2009 as filing date for Eb2 India in Oct 2015 bulletin, 5 yrs have gone and the final action date reached that date now.

I just realized i came to US before M S Dhoni started playing international cricket and i am still waiting for my GC even after he reitred after a long and successful career, isn't that ridiculous?

[EB32010]

Who knows? This prediction game is meaningless. If we go by USCIS logic, filing date was something which will be final action date in next 8-12 months. They put 1 Jul 2009 as filing date for Eb2 India in Oct 2015 bulletin, 5 yrs have gone and the final action date reached that date now.

I just realized i came to US before M S Dhoni started playing international cricket and i am still waiting for my GC even after he reitred after a long and successful career, isn't that ridiculous?
I came to US before that epic 281 by Laxman and I am still waiting for GC. How about that?

[AceMan]

Who knows? This prediction game is meaningless. If we go by USCIS logic, filing date was something which will be final action date in next 8-12 months. They put 1 Jul 2009 as filing date for Eb2 India in Oct 2015 bulletin, 5 yrs have gone and the final action date reached that date now.

I just realized i came to US before M S Dhoni started playing international cricket and i am still waiting for my GC even after he reitred after a long and successful career, isn't that ridiculous?

You can thank he did not have the longevity of Tendulkar which was nearly 24 years!!!!

[qesehmk]

You can thank he did not have the longevity of Tendulkar which was nearly 24 years!!!!
They both retired at almost the same age. Tendulkar simply had very early start at 16.

[AceMan]

They both retired at almost the same age. Tendulkar simply had very early start at 16.

39 would be a good age to get the GC. Lot of these long timers in the GC queue should be from the same decade as Tendulkars.

So coming back to predictions, where are we with numbers? Spillover or no spillover? Furlough or no furloughs?

Eb2 over the last 24 months moved 104 days !!! If we factor in weekends and holidays it moved 80 days in 2 years.

Why do I care of Eb2 when I am Eb3? Because any time Eb3 move forward, enterprising people downgrade and pushes Eb3 back.

Do we get a good long filing date for both categories? Let’s see after a month what October bulletin can offer us.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

39 would be a good age to get the GC. Lot of these long timers in the GC queue should be from the same decade as Tendulkars.

So coming back to predictions, where are we with numbers? Spillover or no spillover? Furlough or no furloughs?

Eb2 over the last 24 months moved 104 days !!! If we factor in weekends and holidays it moved 80 days in 2 years.

Why do I care of Eb2 when I am Eb3? Because any time Eb3 move forward, enterprising people downgrade and pushes Eb3 back.

Do we get a good long filing date for both categories? Let’s see after a month what October bulletin can offer us.

I have been waiting for the 'next visa bulletin to offer something' for the past 5 years.

[rocketfast]

Trackitt approvals for August is back to pre-covid levels. In the last 20 days, 113 I-485 approvals. In June 2020, for the entire month, it was only 36.

But, almost all the approvals are EB1.

[lville]

Finally !! Got my card in hand after 11 years, 2 months and 29 days.

EB2-I PD May 22, 2009.

All the best to everyone waiting.

This forum has been very helpful and helped me keep my sanity.

Thank you to each one for your input and sharing ur journey.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Finally !! Got my card in hand after 11 years, 2 months and 29 days.

EB2-I PD May 22, 2009.

All the best to everyone waiting.

This forum has been very helpful and helped me keep my sanity.

Thank you to each one for your input and sharing ur journey.

Congratulations!!

Just amazing how this shitty system works... my best friend had a PD of April 22, 2009, he got his GC in 2015 and just became a citizen.

[vsivarama]

Congrats, lville!

[idliman]

Finally !! Got my card in hand after 11 years, 2 months and 29 days. EB2-I PD May 22, 2009.

Congratulations lville. I am happy to hear forum members getting greened.

Now a humble request to all of those people standing in Q before me. Please get your GC fast and make way for others. LOL!

[EB2IndSep09]

Finally !! Got my card in hand after 11 years, 2 months and 29 days.

EB2-I PD May 22, 2009.

All the best to everyone waiting.

This forum has been very helpful and helped me keep my sanity.

Thank you to each one for your input and sharing ur journey.

Congratulations!! Iville
Could be a big relief. Once celebrations are done put the freedom and additional energy for a better use and fly high.

[lville]

Congratulations!! Iville
Could be a big relief. Once celebrations are done put the freedom and additional energy for a better use and fly high.

Thanks! Already working on $10 million project. Will lead to 15 jobs and solid returns for my investors.

[srinivas20]

Can two employers file I485 for one employee... what happens if one employer GC is approved and got GC .. will other one automatically denied

[EB2IndSep09]

Can two employers file I485 for one employee... what happens if one employer GC is approved and got GC .. will other one automatically denied

AOS is for future employment and there is no rule that stops filing more than one I-485 for the same applicant. In some cases like porting existing underlying AOS which is already filed there are rules to file multiple AOS.
However, an applicant can adjust his or her status based only on one I-485 application so any additional applications automatically gets cancelled.

[idliman]

Can two employers file I485 for one employee... what happens if one employer GC is approved and got GC .. will other one automatically denied
I am not an attorney. So please DYOR.

Employees can have multiple H1-B's at the same time. So they can have multiple I-140's also. I have never heard about this, which makes me think it may not be possible. I think you can file two I-485 applications based on two separate I-140s. 1) However, all of these are tied by a single A#, so don't know if there are checks to prevent and reject that while under adjudication. 2) If there is an RFE, I guess both employers can provide I-485J as they are for future employment.

I don't think rejection of one I-485 and approval of another I-485 will be a problem as long as the rejection is after the approval of first application. Ten years ago, it was very common for I-485s getting approved and I-765/I-131 that were concurrently filed being denied. What's the use of I-765, when you already have I-485 right?

[srinivas20]

Thank you very much


I am not an attorney. So please DYOR.
Employees can have multiple H1-B's at the same time. So they can have multiple I-140's also. I have never heard about this, which makes me think it may not be possible. I think you can file two I-485 applications based on two separate I-140s. 1) However, all of these are tied by a single A#, so don't know if there are checks to prevent and reject that while under adjudication. 2) If there is an RFE, I guess both employers can provide I-485J as they are for future employment.

I don't think rejection of one I-485 and approval of another I-485 will be a problem as long as the rejection is after the approval of first application. Ten years ago, it was very common for I-485s getting approved and I-765/I-131 that were concurrently filed being denied. What's the use of I-765, when you already have I-485 right?

[srinivas20]

Thank you .. this helps


AOS is for future employment and there is no rule that stops filing more than one I-485 for the same applicant. In some cases like porting existing underlying AOS which is already filed there are rules to file multiple AOS.
However, an applicant can adjust his or her status based only on one I-485 application so any additional applications automatically gets cancelled.

[jimmys]

39 would be a good age to get the GC. Lot of these long timers in the GC queue should be from the same decade as Tendulkars.

So coming back to predictions, where are we with numbers? Spillover or no spillover? Furlough or no furloughs?

Eb2 over the last 24 months moved 104 days !!! If we factor in weekends and holidays it moved 80 days in 2 years.

Why do I care of Eb2 when I am Eb3? Because any time Eb3 move forward, enterprising people downgrade and pushes Eb3 back.

Do we get a good long filing date for both categories? Let’s see after a month what October bulletin can offer us.



They don't plan to use filing date anymore for this FY is what I am sensing. If we end up this FY with 1st May 2010 for EB3, I expect them to set the filing date to 1st April 2011 for October 2019. Philippines movement is the key for EB3 I to get beyond the current limit.



You made this statement about 20 months ago in this forum but your date is not current for filing yet. And, there's no guarantee it will be current for filing in Oct 2020 as well. What I meant to say is, it's very hard to predict when some PDs going to be current for filing let alone getting approved. With given current government's animosity towards immigration, it's almost impossible to say when someone's going to be current.

Good luck to you for the FY 2021

[AceMan]

You made this statement about 20 months ago in this forum but your date is not current for filing yet. And, there's no guarantee it will be current for filing in Oct 2020 as well. What I meant to say is, it's very hard to predict when some PDs going to be current for filing let alone getting approved. With given current government's animosity towards immigration, it's almost impossible to say when someone's going to be current.

Good luck to you for the FY 2021

I think you missed one of my recent post where I acknowledged that all my past predictions were crap.

[trackitgc]

That's understatement of the decade on this site at least. I haven't seen anybody come close to Spec in terms of details he can provide. Bow to Spec!

I would concur, been a long time follower in the forum. Bow to Spec for the clarity he brings to the frankenstein rules (looks like one :)) & the numbers game.

[H1b2006]

just another 1 bulletin to decide our fate, whether we can get GC in 10yrs or 1-2yrs.

[rabp77]

You made this statement about 20 months ago in this forum but your date is not current for filing yet. And, there's no guarantee it will be current for filing in Oct 2020 as well. What I meant to say is, it's very hard to predict when some PDs going to be current for filing let alone getting approved. With given current government's animosity towards immigration, it's almost impossible to say when someone's going to be current.

Good luck to you for the FY 2021


I don't think there is anyone who can predict things like corona virus, or increased eb1 usage or the next recession. Especially with the fact that USCIS stopped publishing inventory numbers.

As Q mentioned there is a cone of probability. And these events make the cone wider.

[vedu]

just another 1 bulletin to decide our fate, whether we can get GC in 10yrs or 1-2yrs.

True! If it is a bust, then continue to put FULL BLAME on the current administration, but if it is boom, then the FULL CREDIT should also go to them! Fair enough...right? And it is all about the filing dates at first...and then the Final Action dates will follow throughout the year!

[EB2IndSep09]

True! If it is a bust, then continue to put FULL BLAME on the current administration, but if it is boom, then the FULL CREDIT should also go to them! Fair enough...right? And it is all about the filing dates at first...and then the Final Action dates will follow throughout the year!

Why would someone get credit for doing their job?
These agencies should be governed but not influenced by political parties for their benefit. That is what causing the artificial funneling of the visa numbers.
I would not count on anything at this time because when everything was okay the DFF published didn't had any rationale everything was a guess work by the agencies who had all the metrics needed (Even they could use some from Spec's post) or influenced numbers and dates.



Dates for Filing
Sep-18
Oct-18
Sep-19
Oct-19
Sep-20
Oct-20


EB1 -India
C
1-Oct-17
1-Oct-17
15-Mar-17
1-Jul-18
??


EB2 -India
22-May-09
22-May-09
1-Jun-09
1-Jul-09
15-Aug-09
??


EB3 -India
1-May-09
1-Oct-09
1-Apr-10
1-Feb-10
1-Feb-10
??

[vedu]

Why would someone get credit for doing their job?
These agencies should be governed but not influenced by political parties for their benefit. That is what causing the artificial funneling of the visa numbers.
I would not count on anything at this time because when everything was okay the DFF published didn't had any rationale everything was a guess work by the agencies who had all the metrics needed (Even they could use some from Spec's post) or influenced numbers and dates.



Dates for Filing
Sep-18
Oct-18
Sep-19
Oct-19
Sep-20
Oct-20


EB2 -India
22-May-09
22-May-09
1-Jun-09
1-Jul-09
15-Aug-09
??


EB3 -India
1-May-09
1-Oct-09
1-Apr-10
1-Feb-10
1-Feb-10
??



Okay, I will change my sentence, "If it is a bust, then BLAME the current admin, but if it's boom, then DON'T BLAME the current admin for that end result!" Fair enough now?

Please include EB1-India in your table. That will provide a holistic perspective! The dates can look erratic, but only fair question to ask is "Did they use full annual quota during the last three years under current admin?" I don't have that data, but anybody on the forum who has it, please provide it. If they did use the full quota, then they did their job. If not, then the BLAME should definitely go to whoever wasted those visas.

We don't have definite data for this year yet, so all we are doing is speculating on the visa wastage numbers. But, IF and ONLY IF it turns out that they used full 156,253 visas or close to this number this year, then we have to BLAME ourselves, and not others for our miseries. Here is a recent example: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/indian-national-arrested-in-21-million-h1b-visa-fraud/story-IZxBhHE8gqb7w6ZjIqJjhN.html

I am sure lot of such abuse is going on in both H1b visas and GC applications! No wonder we have to rot forever in this waiting line!

[EB2IndSep09]

Okay, I will change my sentence, "If it is a bust, then BLAME the current admin, but if it's boom, then DON'T BLAME the current admin for that end result!" Fair enough now?

Please include EB1-India in your table. That will provide a holistic perspective! The dates can look erratic, but only fair question to ask is "Did they use full annual quota during the last three years under current admin?" I don't have that data, but anybody on the forum who has it, please provide it. If they did use the full quota, then they did their job. If not, then the BLAME should definitely go to whoever wasted those visas.

We don't have definite data for this year yet, so all we are doing is speculating on the visa wastage numbers. But, IF and ONLY IF it turns out that they used full 156,253 visas or close to this number this year, then we have to BLAME ourselves, and not others for our miseries. Here is a recent example: https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/indian-national-arrested-in-21-million-h1b-visa-fraud/story-IZxBhHE8gqb7w6ZjIqJjhN.html

I am sure lot of such abuse is going on in both H1b visas and GC applications! No wonder we have to rot forever in this waiting line!

No disrespect to what you mentioned earlier, I understand your intention. I meant a thank you would be enough for someone doing their job! :)
I agree with you on the annual quota and also another important thing "fair usage of spill over" that has not been done from past few years.

Until the broken system is fixed nothing is going to happen. Currently there are more forces, power and money lobbying against fixing it for their political and financial benefits.
Thanks for the feedback updated EB1 in the grid.

[vedu]

No disrespect to what you mentioned earlier, I understand your intention. I meant a thank you would be enough for someone doing their job! :)
I agree with you on the annual quota and also another important thing "fair usage of spill over" that has not been done from past few years.

Until the broken system is fixed nothing is going to happen. Currently there are more forces, power and money lobbying against fixing it for their political and financial benefits.
Thanks for the feedback updated EB1 in the grid.

Thank you! I understand we are all frustrated after spending a decade of our lives in this waiting line. Let's just hope (or should I say PRAY?) that next year is ours, but at the same time be aware that new surprises can spring up any time and we maybe here five years from now discussing the same things!

[vedu]

Well, most likely it is more that a little wastege. Eb2 India moved from May 12 to July 8 in the year when consulates are closed and ROW is current. And those few thousands wastage (will need to wait till they announce final numbers) would have helped move Eb2 India a lot. Wastage is ok for ROW because it will dealy their GC just by few months, but for Eb2+3 India, this was once in a decade sort of windfall opportunity and agency screwed it up royally.

My logic for 25 k wastage is simple - they did not process 16k spillover (from previous year FB) plus about 10k or so which would have processed by consulates in regular year in 7-8 months. Why work more when you get same salary@?

I am prettry sure someone must be making plans right now on how to screw up 100k spillover next year.

The fact that the dates didn't move at all in September Visa bulletin points to more likelihood of full visa usage and little wastage if any. Otherwise, September Visa Bulletin would have been a Hail Mary! Sometime ago, spec mentioned the possibility that ROW may have used more than their fair share because 7% country quota refers to EB+FB combined. Since ROW used less FB due to consulates being closed as you pointed out, they could use more in EB which was open. We will find out soon. Also, we have to give them some slack. After all, it was once in a lifetime pandemic year!

[rocketfast]

The fact that the dates didn't move at all in September Visa bulletin points to more likelihood of full visa usage and little wastage if any. Otherwise, September Visa Bulletin would have been a Hail Mary! Sometime ago, spec mentioned the possibility that ROW may have used more than their fair share because 7% country quota refers to EB+FB combined. Since ROW used less FB due to consulates being closed as you pointed out, they could use more in EB which was open. We will find out soon. Also, we have to give them some slack. After all, it was once in a lifetime pandemic year!

There are 2 counter points.
1. In the US house of representatives, just 2 months ago, the USCIS chief said that they have allocated ~105,000 GCs and that it is 85% of their total.
2. Trackitt monthly data over the last few months.

Both point to under-allocation and that USCIS gave themselves a target of what they approved last year - which is approx 85% of 140,000 (the remaining being CP cases). So they likely will waste (156,000 - 125,000)

[vedu]

There are 2 counter points.
1. In the US house of representatives, just 2 months ago, the USCIS chief said that they have allocated ~105,000 GCs and that it is 85% of their total.
2. Trackitt monthly data over the last few months.

Both point to under-allocation and that USCIS gave themselves a target of what they approved last year - which is approx 85% of 140,000 (the remaining being CP cases). So they likely will waste (156,000 - 125,000)

I wouldn't give much credence to what USCIS chief said two months ago. We all know how DOS chief changes his statements from month to month. About Trackitt monthly data, yes, that is certainly something to look into in the absence of more concrete data.

At the end of the day, let's agree to disagree and wait for the truth to come out soon!

A fun fact - I found evidence that Sushant Singh Rajput had developed a Corona App. Several newspapers in India are reporting that SSR invented a Corona app in which infection could be detected by just breathing into a mobile. Here is one from TOI:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/entertainment/hindi/bollywood/news/sushant-singh-rajput-had-invented-a-corona-app-to-detect-covid-19/articleshow/77695080.cms

Now try countering that! ;)

[H1b2006]

do you think USCIS guys will not honour the established rule ?

[usvisas]

House passes stopgap legislation to prevent over 13,000 furloughs at USCIS

https://cleaver.house.gov/media-center/press-releases/rep-cleaver-s-bipartisan-bill-to-prevent-uscis-furloughs-passes-house-of

[H1b2006]

great we are going to see full speed processing then

[idliman]

House passes stopgap legislation to prevent over 13,000 furloughs at USCIS

This bill increases the premium processing fees and the categories that are eligible. This does not have the $1.222B that USCIS asked for. Not sure if this will stop furlough.


For immigration benefits already designated for premium processing, the premium fee is increased from $1,440 to $2,500, except that fees for H-2B and religious worker (R visa) petitions are set at $1,500.
Premium processing services must be made available to the following additional immigration benefits, with fees and timeframes set through rulemaking:
employment-based nonimmigrant petitions not already subject to premium processing;
certain employment-based green card petitions (EB-1, EB-2, and EB-3) not already subject to premium processing;
applications to change or extend nonimmigrant status;
applications for employment authorization; and
other immigration benefit requests as USCIS deems appropriate.
USCIS may make biennial adjustments of premium fees to account for inflation.


Another important wording is
within 180 days, DHS shall provide Congress with a 5-year plan, including cost estimates & schedules an electronic filing plan for all applications and petitions for immigration benefits, acceptance of electronic payments.
While this is a good thing, this will backfire for backlogged EB2I / EB3I, if they are still pending AOS after 5 years. While I rejoiced when Obama admin introduced the DF concept for streamlining, it effectively stopped spillover of GCs to India. It took me time to realize that it was the uncertainity in ROW volumes that provided spillover for backlogged countries. That's what happened in 2012 (Jan to Mar), when the EB2I dates moved to 01MAY2010 in the name of building inventory. Five years from now, most of the EB2I/EB3I applications will be on paper, while the ROW countries will be electronic. This will further slowdown the approval for EB2I/EB3I. A lot of things can happen in 5 years. However, if the past is an indication, nothing happens in the immigration law world that quickly.

[alpha0]

great we are going to see full speed processing then

Based on past statements, i assume CO took reduced USCIS capacity due to furloughs in Sep into consideration for final action dates. If (and big if) furloughs do not happen, will he reissue sep VB again to consume as many visas as possible in that case? I know this is wishful thinking but that is all i have left after these many years in queue.

[android09]

great we are going to see full speed processing then

No. This needs to be passed in the senate and it has to be signed by the President for it to be activated. Also, it does not provide funding right off the bill. Basically it says USCIS can increase premium processing fees which will generate revenue.Let's all hope the bill is signed into law.

[usvisas]

buzzing that furloughs cancelled

[idliman]

buzzing that furloughs cancelled
Thanks. Good news for people waiting for their cards. From backlog perspective, I want USCIS to issue as many GCs as possible and reduce wastage of GCs (and minuscule amount of backlog).

Hamed Aleaziz @Haleaziz of Buzzfeed has been breaking many USCIS stories. He says that Furlough is cancelled for 13K employees per Sunday email. Lets wait and see.

Edit: Link to Story

The US Immigration System Won't Come To A Halt After Massive Work Furloughs Were Canceled. (https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/hamedaleaziz/us-citizenship-immigration-services-furlough-canceled)

[idliman]

Watchout for new edition of I-765 form dated 08/25/2020 and expires 07/31/2022. Old forms are no longer being accepted.

Usually USCIS will give a 3-6 month grace period. The grace period has been completely eliminated. Even the public is notified only a week or less before these forms go into effect. Anyone filing anything, please check the USCIS website before you download the form and before you mail the forms.

USCIS is acting like a professor giving sudden pop quizzes with a lot of trick questions to the students and saying the grades are fully dependent only on the pop quiz.

[android09]

Thanks. Good news for people waiting for their cards. From backlog perspective, I want USCIS to issue as many GCs as possible and reduce wastage of GCs (and minuscule amount of backlog).

Hamed Aleaziz @Haleaziz of Buzzfeed has been breaking many USCIS stories. He says that Furlough is cancelled for 13K employees per Sunday email. Lets wait and see.

Agreed about issuing max green cards however, I do not anticipate drastic movements. CO will move things slowly and carefully and try and see if ROW demand is created. If at all, he will try to keep major movements in the last few months of 2021, then the game will be to waste green cards like this year.

[EB2IndSep09]

Agreed about issuing max green cards however, I do not anticipate drastic movements. CO will move things slowly and carefully and try and see if ROW demand is created. If at all, he will try to keep major movements in the last few months of 2021, then the game will be to waste green cards like this year.

Major movements can happen at both starting and ending of the year. The category in which the movement occurs are decided by the consumption and other influencing factors like spillover and porting.
For example, FA Dates moved only few days as I recollect 4-5 days for EB2 and 3 and 1/2 years for EB3, in last October. This year the expectation is EB2 should catch up with EB3 at least on FA, thanks to spillover.
Oct '20 DFF will drive how 2021 is going to unfold for the FA dates of EB category. If there is no significant movement in Oct 2020 VB for DFF (in my opinion they should move into Q1 2010 for EB2 and Q2/Q3 for EB3), then we all must think that CO did not recover from 2012 trauma.

[alpha0]

Does anyone else also think USCIS purposefully dealyed the cancellation of furloughs till last week of August? Just so that CO uses reduced capacity to move FAD in Sep VB. Why can't they cancel furloughs in first week of August itself? It is not like all of a sudden they got lot of revenue in last 7 days.

[idliman]

Does anyone else also think USCIS purposefully dealyed the cancellation of furloughs till last week of August? Just so that CO uses reduced capacity to move FAD in Sep VB. Why can't they cancel furloughs in first week of August itself? It is not like all of a sudden they got lot of revenue in last 7 days.
I listened partially to the NPR Fresh Air episode (https://www.npr.org/2020/08/24/905403716/hatemonger-paints-trump-advisor-stephen-miller-as-a-case-study-in-radicalization) about Stephen Miller. Some of things about him I already knew about. He single-handedly controls DT's immigration policy and immigration. Over the last 4 years, his powers have grown exponentially. When Rick Scott put the hold on S386, I believe he was in a corner in Senate. He has extreme anti-immigration views and can pickup the phone and do anything. The main platform for reelection of DT in 2020 is anti-immigration and another one is anti-China. I would not be surprised if he is behind everything. He is crazy but he is not ustable. I believe many of things that CO is doing (orders from political appointees or otherwise) are based on instructions provided to him. You can call this my conspiracy theory.

As an independent (neutral), I believe if there are four more years of DT & Stephen Miller, kiss goodbye to spillover. It will only exist on paper. May be 2009/2010 will clear at the end of 2024. Sorry for the fear-mongering on this issue. Many people don't realize how bad it will get.

[H1b2006]

hey good news then. Will this also helps the Perm prevailing wage current determinations timelines of 4 months to come down to 1 month?

[idliman]

hey good news then. Will this also helps the Perm prevailing wage current determinations timelines of 4 months to come down to 1 month?
Boss: Those are decided and approved by Department of Labor (DOL). It does not come under DHS.

[EB2IndSep09]

Does anyone else also think USCIS purposefully dealyed the cancellation of furloughs till last week of August? Just so that CO uses reduced capacity to move FAD in Sep VB. Why can't they cancel furloughs in first week of August itself? It is not like all of a sudden they got lot of revenue in last 7 days.

Where is the drama my friend if they cancel it in the first week of August. This is a poorly orchestrated play which doesn't need an intellectual to question and shatter.
Basically the agency wanted to increase the costs to a ridiculous heights and took covid situation as an excuse

On a serious note this might not be an end as USCIS Director's email quotes ...
"The agency is still projecting a budget shortfall heading into fiscal year 2021, which starts in October.."
"Although our situation has temporarily improved due to a modest increase in revenues, Congress must act on a long-term fix that will provide the necessary financial assistance to sustain the agency,"

[longwaitgigu]

I listened partially to the NPR Fresh Air episode (https://www.npr.org/2020/08/24/905403716/hatemonger-paints-trump-advisor-stephen-miller-as-a-case-study-in-radicalization) about Stephen Miller. Some of things about him I already knew about. He single-handedly controls DT's immigration policy and immigration. Over the last 4 years, his powers have grown exponentially. When Rick Scott put the hold on S386, I believe he was in a corner in Senate. He has extreme anti-immigration views and can pickup the phone and do anything. The main platform for reelection of DT in 2020 is anti-immigration and another one is anti-China. I would not be surprised if he is behind everything. He is crazy but he is not ustable. I believe many of things that CO is doing (orders from political appointees or otherwise) are based on instructions provided to him. You can call this my conspiracy theory.

As an independent (neutral), I believe if there are four more years of DT & Stephen Miller, kiss goodbye to spillover. It will only exist on paper. May be 2009/2010 will clear at the end of 2024. Sorry for the fear-mongering on this issue. Many people don't realize how bad it will get.

Is it really possible for CO and trump administration to nullify the spillover without legislation passing through Congress
I understand processing capacity of uscis will be the excuse from now till the covaid ends, but wouldn't it be smart enough to move DF queue to generate revenue. Trump administration and Stephen miller more likely hate asylum seekers and FB immigrants. But I do understand the rhetoric behind indians being highly paid and be the CEO of most tech companies.
That could be fear mongering too as browns r not cheap labor as whites always wanted them to be

[idliman]

Is it really possible for CO and trump administration to nullify the spillover without legislation passing through Congress
I understand processing capacity of uscis will be the excuse from now till the covaid ends, but wouldn't it be smart enough to move DF queue to generate revenue. Trump administration and Stephen miller more likely hate asylum seekers and FB immigrants. But I do understand the rhetoric behind indians being highly paid and be the CEO of most tech companies.
That could be fear mongering too as browns r not cheap labor as whites always wanted them to be
It is not openly possible. In 2020 & 2021 they have the perfect excuse of COVID. They can find something else in other years. It is the intent that matters. Needless to say the current admin has utter disregard for past precedence and ethics.

[qesehmk]

The law doesn't prescribe a lower limit on immigration that must be met. So if the agencies give out ZERO green cards; that wouldn't be a violation of any law.

In fact this is the very reason why in family category over 100k were unused this year without any problem.

Can an anti-immigrant administration ask agencies to stop issuing visas? It's technically possible but unlikely IMHO because every year 1M new immigrants add approximately 1% to GDP growth. Immigration is not just a political thing - it is a strategic goal of United States. It's something that makes US stronger.

[H1b2006]

i changed my employer recently new emp initiated perm, in eb3 currently in prewailing wage. hence my question and i got the answer. thanks

[vyruss]

Do they apply the 100k SO immediately? What percentage will go to EB2 and EB3 I? If everything holds good, is a substantial movement deep into 2010 or 2011 possible?