EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[rabp77]

I do believe CO can do better. Hence I agree with anyone saying that - "He is a partner in this crime" or that he is riding the gravy train...

Not picking on Spec but using his update to put forth my points :


a) Since Consulates are closed, CO should have the number from Consulate as ZERO [0] in his calculator or Excel or any tool he uses.


b) CO should not have "some" idea but clear idea and number based on "Preadjudicated" cases.

CO can do the above two for sure and should not give any excuses.

The folks who are responsible for transporting the paperwork from Storage to location - should clearly review their performance. Dude, If this is your Job and you are getting paid for it - Do it on time and do it efficiently.
If this is too much of an ask, do consider hiring us [immigrants] and we can show how its done.

Imagine if a lawn contractor, or plumber or handyman that you use - give you the excuses we have been seeing in doing their Job [Keeping updates straightforward, do their work and bill for only what they do] - We would have fired them longtime ago. For christsakes, we are not asking for grace or help or relying on luck - DO THE JOB...

CO certainly has an estimate of how many cases are there before the filing date. Back in 2015, when this two date system was introduced, it was mentioned that the date of filling is the date they expect the FAD to move to in 8-12 months. The whole idea was to allow people to apply 8-12 months early so that by the time the case is pre adjucated, the fàd has moved to that date, and it can be approved without further delay.

So to set the filing date, they need to have some way to estimate the demand.

That's why in my opinion there should be a good chance of the FAD moving to the current filing dates in a few months for eb2, and eb 3 i. The forecasting system could have usual errors, but with a higher spillover expected into fy 2021, i was expecting fad to soon reach the filing dates that were published in oct 2019 for most categories.

[jimmys]

I filed in 2010 and my Priority date is 04/02/2010. Am I exempt from the interview as well when my date becomes current?

I wonder how you were able to file in 2010 with PD of April,2010. Maybe in 2012?

[jimmys]

The process for visa allocation is explained quite well in this document (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf).



Thanks for pointing to the right document.

[smuggymba]

Changing the topic a bit, anyone have Reddy & Co as their attorneys? I hear rumor that they told clients in this weekly meeting that only EB1 will move in next VB. Does AILA faithful’s have some insider information?

Why would someone hire them as their attorneys and give them business. Crazy.

They're the ones who were telling consulting body shops to oppose H4 EAD rule and even contributing towards it. They made youtube take down the video. they're one of the the reason for this mess...why would someone hire them. Amazing :confused:

[Spectator]

Sorry to be blunt, but I think you're living in some kind of idealized cloud cuckoo land, or rather naive.

CO has already said that he has moved the dates further than he otherwise would have done. That said, I do think CO could/should have been somewhat more aggressive to force USCIS hand. But really, it's now irrelevant how many Consular approvals there are, it is USCIS processing capacity. You simply can't ignore the fact that it is severely diminished and likely to remain that way for (at least) the rest of the FY. CO mentioned that USCIS were able to approve only 60% of EB1/EB2 cases in May 2020 compared to the same period last year.



QUESTION:
In last month’s Check In, Charlie said that *it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020*. If that is the case, why is Charlie not accelerating the Visa Bulletin with the hope of attracting as many approvals as possible?

ANSWER:
That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use.

Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS is diminished due to the pandemic. Currently, immigrant visa processing at consular posts abroad is limited to *mission critical* processing, which is defined at the discretion of the post and which is often limited to adjudicating cases based on compelling reasons, such as age-outs.

Immigrant visa processing at USCIS has also been constrained due to the pandemic, but their capacity has been much greater than that of the consular posts. For example, in May 2020, USCIS used over 3,600 numbers across the employment-based first and second preference categories. This contrasts with number usage in excess of 6,000 for the same categories in May 2019.

However, I do not want to see the situation we had in 2012, where people with 2010 PD were approved at the expense of people with earlier PD (all the way back to late 2007). There's people who missed out on approval at that time who have had to wait a further 8 years or more because of that. If USCIS have reduced processing capacity, let it be used on those with the oldest PD. USCIS are not going to sort cases by PD if they are all "current".

I think you need to also give some thought to what USCIS priorities might be at the moment - and that might not be EB approvals.
There is a large backlog of Naturalization cases at present and it's an Election year when caseload historically increases. I think USCIS has already said that processing those and getting oath ceremonies completed is a priority. In terms of processing, the I-400 process is now almost completely converted to online electronic processing, Biometrics, Interview and Oath Ceremony notwithstanding.

I accept my view may be contrary to the majority here, but I think it's more realistic and considers an overall view of what's happening rather than being entirely EB-centric.


I do believe CO can do better. Hence I agree with anyone saying that - "He is a partner in this crime" or that he is riding the gravy train...

Not picking on Spec but using his update to put forth my points :


a) Since Consulates are closed, CO should have the number from Consulate as ZERO [0] in his calculator or Excel or any tool he uses.
Nearly true, but CO has already stated that some cases are being processed at Consulates on an emergency basis i.e. when "age out" may be a consideration. I do agree that for practical purposes, the number can be considered to be zero.


b) CO should not have "some" idea but clear idea and number based on "Preadjudicated" cases.
As I mentioned before, preadjudicated cases are not the ONLY cases. Your angst should rather be directed towards USCIS for their appalling lack of information sharing or even knowledge of how many cases might become current for any shift in the FAD. You should look at the history between DOS and INS/DHS/USCIS. It doesn't really seemed to have moved forward at all since 2007. Further, any cases that have been preadjudicated in the past still need final review by a human before they can be approved. That means they need to get in front of an adjudicator.

CO can do the above two for sure and should not give any excuses.

The folks who are responsible for transporting the paperwork from Storage to location - should clearly review their performance. Dude, If this is your Job and you are getting paid for it - Do it on time and do it efficiently.
If this is too much of an ask, do consider hiring us [immigrants] and we can show how its done.

Imagine if a lawn contractor, or plumber or handyman that you use - give you the excuses we have been seeing in doing their Job [Keeping updates straightforward, do their work and bill for only what they do] - We would have fired them longtime ago. For christsakes, we are not asking for grace or help or relying on luck - DO THE JOB...

I think you are living under a rock, if you haven't heard about something called COVID-19.
Supply chains have been severely affected across the world, let alone the USA.
Much to USCIS discredit, the AOS process remains largely paper based even now. The ability to move physical items must have been severely curtailed. Who knows how many people are even working at these locations?

I certainly know that, if it's not already physically in my possession or available via computer, then a document might as well not exist at the moment.

I not allowed to collect it and I wouldn't travel 100's of mile to get it either.

[need4speed]

However, I do not want to see the situation we had in 2012, where people with 2010 PD were approved at the expense of people with earlier PD (all the way back to late 2007). There's people who missed out on approval at that time who have had to wait a further 8 years or more because of that. If USCIS have reduced processing capacity, let it be used on those with the oldest PD. USCIS are not going to sort cases by PD if they are all "current".


Thanks for the big picture. I disagree with above thought, I would like to see maximum utilization at this point, it isn't unconscionable again in big picture.

[monsieur]

Ohh boy, something which I has been in my mind has been put into words by Spec.

Treat USCIS as any big company, each company as Business Units (BU). Just because market changed overnight you can't scale up workforce in gives BU within weeks. Same with USCIS, just because they now have 25K EB visa they can't distribute those without due diligence (medicals, background checks and what not). Keep in mind USCIS is involved in many things (adoption, SEVIS, naturalization, GC and many more...) it doesn't mean you can move folks from one Org to another in middle of pandemic. They are overwhelmmed and by moving dates, situation will be much worse.

As a backlogged GC candidate I am all with you in terms of utilization of visa numbers, I do realize there is limit to it and there will be wastage. Crossing my fingers that its minimal (in 4 digits) instead of high 5 digit number which has been thrown around.

[android09]

Yup. No interview for you.

Does that hold true for people who lets say filed for PERM in 2010 and then in 2017 changed to a new company who then filed again for PERM and I-140 and ported their priority dates from 2010 to the new petition?

[Pundit Arjun]

Not in cuckoo land or naive, Spec. You can say that I have gotten Numb.
Do note that I am not calling USCIS as saints and CO and others only as being on the wrong side.

Believe all of us are working now and performing the job essentials keeping with the CDC guidelines and being safe. Expecting the same from the folks who are working their hours as well and to give straightforward updates [again similar to what you are doing on a regular basis].

Not wishing for CO or anyone for that matter to risk their life to approve a petition - funny and sad that someone mentioned that.

And like Mahendra said - this opinion of mine is not because we have the virus going on now. This is something that all stakeholders will expect [including me] always.



Sorry to be blunt, but I think you're living in some kind of idealized cloud cuckoo land, or rather naive.

CO has already said that he has moved the dates further than he otherwise would have done. That said, I do think CO could/should have been somewhat more aggressive to force USCIS hand. But really, it's now irrelevant how many Consular approvals there are, it is USCIS processing capacity. You simply can't ignore the fact that it is severely diminished and likely to remain that way for (at least) the rest of the FY. CO mentioned that USCIS were able to approve only 60% of EB1/EB2 cases in May 2020 compared to the same period last year.


However, I do not want to see the situation we had in 2012, where people with 2010 PD were approved at the expense of people with earlier PD (all the way back to late 2007). There's people who missed out on approval at that time who have had to wait a further 8 years or more because of that. If USCIS have reduced processing capacity, let it be used on those with the oldest PD. USCIS are not going to sort cases by PD if they are all "current".

I think you need to also give some thought to what USCIS priorities might be at the moment - and that might not be EB approvals.
There is a large backlog of Naturalization cases at present and it's an Election year when caseload historically increases. I think USCIS has already said that processing those and getting oath ceremonies completed is a priority. In terms of processing, the I-400 process is now almost completely converted to online electronic processing, Biometrics, Interview and Oath Ceremony notwithstanding.

I accept my view may be contrary to the majority here, but I think it's more realistic and considers an overall view of what's happening rather than being entirely EB-centric.

[qesehmk]

Spec - i think you too are either being naive or feigning naivety.

If CO fears visas will be wasted he should move dates far enough to include all pre-adjudicated cases. That maximizes USCIS' ability to request a visa. If he is not doing it for fear of people being mis prioritized, he will still be within law because the processing is upto USCIS. All he has to do is allocate visa when requested as per law (i,e. country category PD).

So the ball is in CO's court. I am quite well aware of the history and dynamic between the departments. But this specific situation today requires CO to be bold.

It is easy for DOS or USCIS to say EB is not the only thing. Yes of course they are not the one rotting in EB queue for 12 years.

On another note - the CP process being manual is an excellent example where bureaucracy exists for its own sake. They have ZERO incentive to automate the process. They are fees funded. So why would they. When needed jack up the prices. Isn't it?


Sorry to be blunt, but I think you're living in some kind of idealized cloud cuckoo land, or rather naive.

CO has already said that he has moved the dates further than he otherwise would have done. That said, I do think CO could/should have been somewhat more aggressive to force USCIS hand. But really, it's now irrelevant how many Consular approvals there are, it is USCIS processing capacity. You simply can't ignore the fact that it is severely diminished and likely to remain that way for (at least) the rest of the FY. CO mentioned that USCIS were able to approve only 60% of EB1/EB2 cases in May 2020 compared to the same period last year.


However, I do not want to see the situation we had in 2012, where people with 2010 PD were approved at the expense of people with earlier PD (all the way back to late 2007). There's people who missed out on approval at that time who have had to wait a further 8 years or more because of that. If USCIS have reduced processing capacity, let it be used on those with the oldest PD. USCIS are not going to sort cases by PD if they are all "current".

I think you need to also give some thought to what USCIS priorities might be at the moment - and that might not be EB approvals.
There is a large backlog of Naturalization cases at present and it's an Election year when caseload historically increases. I think USCIS has already said that processing those and getting oath ceremonies completed is a priority. In terms of processing, the I-400 process is now almost completely converted to online electronic processing, Biometrics, Interview and Oath Ceremony notwithstanding.

I accept my view may be contrary to the majority here, but I think it's more realistic and considers an overall view of what's happening rather than being entirely EB-centric.

[GC-Immigrant]

Sorry to be blunt, but I think you're living in some kind of idealized cloud cuckoo land, or rather naive.

CO has already said that he has moved the dates further than he otherwise would have done. That said, I do think CO could/should have been somewhat more aggressive to force USCIS hand. But really, it's now irrelevant how many Consular approvals there are, it is USCIS processing capacity. You simply can't ignore the fact that it is severely diminished and likely to remain that way for (at least) the rest of the FY. CO mentioned that USCIS were able to approve only 60% of EB1/EB2 cases in May 2020 compared to the same period last year.


However, I do not want to see the situation we had in 2012, where people with 2010 PD were approved at the expense of people with earlier PD (all the way back to late 2007). There's people who missed out on approval at that time who have had to wait a further 8 years or more because of that. If USCIS have reduced processing capacity, let it be used on those with the oldest PD. USCIS are not going to sort cases by PD if they are all "current".

I think you need to also give some thought to what USCIS priorities might be at the moment - and that might not be EB approvals.
There is a large backlog of Naturalization cases at present and it's an Election year when caseload historically increases. I think USCIS has already said that processing those and getting oath ceremonies completed is a priority. In terms of processing, the I-400 process is now almost completely converted to online electronic processing, Biometrics, Interview and Oath Ceremony notwithstanding.

I accept my view may be contrary to the majority here, but I think it's more realistic and considers an overall view of what's happening rather than being entirely EB-centric.

So Green card and Naturalization cases handled by the same resources in USCIS? CO and DHS can ask USCIS to reserve green card for people who filed I485 (April 2010 for EBI).
In your earlier(few years back)posts, you have mentioned that, you don't like country quota removal and supported ROWs faster green card approvals.

People who already filed I485, please call house home land committee members explain to them that CO and USCIS bias towards Indian immigrants, ask them to reserve(even if its not approved) GC for already filed 485 applications.
Remember paper ready (2014 May) episode, same CO and USCIS opposed advancing priority dates, informed Obama admin that they don't have resources to handle 485 applications, but they accepted h4 ead and processed for backlogged applicants, also DACA EAD.
In 2007 July USCIS processed nearly million application.

[eaglenow]

So Green card and Naturalization cases handled by the same resources in USCIS? CO and DHS can ask USCIS to reserve green card for people who filed I485 (April 2010 for EBI).
In your earlier(few years back)posts, you have mentioned that, you don't like country quota removal and supported ROWs faster green card approvals.

People who already filed I485, please call house home land committee members explain to them that CO and USCIS bias towards Indian immigrants, ask them to reserve(even if its not approved) GC for already filed 485 applications.
Remember paper ready (2014 May) episode, same CO and USCIS opposed advancing priority dates, informed Obama admin that they don't have resources to handle 485 applications, but they accepted h4 ead and processed for backlogged applicants, also DACA EAD.
In 2007 July USCIS processed nearly million application.

I think there is misunderstanding in how USCIS processes cases. There is no online system to reserve visas for applications between certain dates. I read somewhere it literally is a manual process.

Once certain PD is current, all pending files within that PD range are requested. Once the physical files are transported from storage to service centers, these files are manually assigned to officers, who look through the files to review current state and determine the next step, either approve or issue RFE.

If approvable, they send a request to DOS for a visa and assign it to the case and approve the case. Sometimes they request and assign visa to a case even when issuing RFE (for preadjudicated cases needing updated medicals etc). This is the reason you would have seen cases getting approved even after dates retrogressed or became unavailable.

This is also the reason why you hear terms like waiting to be assigned to officer, assigned to officer etc for SR, enquiry etc. So even for preajudicated cases, the processing capacity is limited.

I think this is what CO is referring to in his response. If only 1000 cases can be processed in a month, he will probably move the dates so there is maybe 1100 cases. Even if you move further than that, it will only result in processing 1000 cases. So no point in moving.

What spec says is also true. If he moves without heed to processing capacity, it will result in adhoc approvals without regard for PD. All this means is someone in 2010 will get approved while people in 2009 will still be in queue. So if the capacity is to approve only 1000 cases, it is better to move in orderly fashion so as to have predictable movement and not approval chaos which will result in unpredictable movements in future. This used to the case in the past where dates swung wildly, which led to inefficiencies and wastage. So the new model was adopted to keep it orderly and predictable.

The one advantage of moving dates is filing 485 in case of age out dependent children. Given that majority have already filed and we are discussing only those who missed the boat, this number is going to be very negligible, if not zero. I am guessing that’s what CO is saying in his response as well.

If there will be wastage, it still hurts, but the reason for that is diminished capacity and nothing to do with date movement. Given the furlough and backlog of naturalization cases, I don’t think it’s going to help even if dates are moved. Seeing the filing date for EB2I and EB3I, I think we are close to hitting the ceiling. My guess is the dates will still move, but not by much and it may be difficult to get even these cases approved this fiscal year, especially if furlough becomes reality. Only good thing is those who are current or become current in the next couple of months, will get GC before end of this year worst case.

[GC-Immigrant]

I think there is misunderstanding in how USCIS processes cases. There is no online system to reserve visas for applications between certain dates. I read somewhere it literally is a manual process.

Once certain PD is current, all pending files within that PD range are requested. Once the physical files are transported from storage to service centers, these files are manually assigned to officers, who look through the files to review current state and determine the next step, either approve or issue RFE.

If approvable, they send a request to DOS for a visa and assign it to the case and approve the case. Sometimes they request and assign visa to a case even when issuing RFE (for preadjudicated cases needing updated medicals etc). This is the reason you would have seen cases getting approved even after dates retrogressed or became unavailable.

This is also the reason why you hear terms like waiting to be assigned to officer, assigned to officer etc for SR, enquiry etc. So even for preajudicated cases, the processing capacity is limited.

I think this is what CO is referring to in his response. If only 1000 cases can be processed in a month, he will probably move the dates so there is maybe 1100 cases. Even if you move further than that, it will only result in processing 1000 cases. So no point in moving.

What spec says is also true. If he moves without heed to processing capacity, it will result in adhoc approvals without regard for PD. All this means is someone in 2010 will get approved while people in 2009 will still be in queue. So if the capacity is to approve only 1000 cases, it is better to move in orderly fashion so as to have predictable movement and not approval chaos which will result in unpredictable movements in future. This used to the case in the past where dates swung wildly, which led to inefficiencies and wastage. So the new model was adopted to keep it orderly and predictable.

The one advantage of moving dates is filing 485 in case of age out dependent children. Given that majority have already filed and we are discussing only those who missed the boat, this number is going to be very negligible, if not zero. I am guessing that’s what CO is saying in his response as well.

If there will be wastage, it still hurts, but the reason for that is diminished capacity and nothing to do with date movement. Given the furlough and backlog of naturalization cases, I don’t think it’s going to help even if dates are moved. Seeing the filing date for EB2I and EB3I, I think we are close to hitting the ceiling. My guess is the dates will still move, but not by much and it may be difficult to get even these cases approved this fiscal year, especially if furlough becomes reality. Only good thing is those who are current or become current in the next couple of months, will get GC before end of this year worst case.

You don't know the intention of these agencies, they don't like Indian immigrants, when 485 FAD introduced by Obama admin, same officials opposed advancing filing dates for India, and reverted back October 2015 VB, at that time one lawyer (The Firm) mentioned about groups(within DHS and USCIS) opposing advancing filing dates, regarding Spec, we are following him last 7 years, know his intentions very well. People who filed 485, please call house homeland committee members ask them to reserve GC for already filed applications.

[karanjohar]

I am stunned by the callousness of the administration and it's agencies (USCIS and DoS) towards the plight of high skilled, legal, tax paying immigrants. How can you prioritize naturalization over GC approvals when there are upwards of 30,000 people waiting in line for more than a decade. How cruel can an agency be after taking thousands of dollars from the same people they are supposed to serve.

These anti immigrant policies are going to hurt the economy and American way of life in the long term. If you drive away skilled immigrants, they will either go back to their home country or move some where they are accepted. There was a time when people would do desperate things to get a GC, not any more. I see dozens of posts in LinkedIn every day where people are going back home having abandoned the GC process. Also, almost all of my friends who went back have turned in to entrepreneurs. The only thing that is remaining is to stop the spigot of students coming to the US. With the new rule, ICE will accelerate this process.

[eaglenow]

I am stunned by the callousness of the administration and it's agencies (USCIS and DoS) towards the plight of high skilled, legal, tax paying immigrants. How can you prioritize naturalization over GC approvals when there are upwards of 30,000 people waiting in line for more than a decade. How cruel can an agency be after taking thousands of dollars from the same people they are supposed to serve.

These anti immigrant policies are going to hurt the economy and American way of life in the long term. If you drive away skilled immigrants, they will either go back to their home country or move some where they are accepted. There was a time when people would do desperate things to get a GC, not any more. I see dozens of posts in LinkedIn every day where people are going back home having abandoned the GC process. Also, almost all of my friends who went back have turned in to entrepreneurs. The only thing that is remaining is to stop the spigot of students coming to the US. With the new rule, ICE will accelerate this process.

In the larger picture, issuing GC is only one of the activities of the agency. The naturalization will take precedence this year because of upcoming election.

Though for us it seems to be the most important item to be addressed, those agencies deal with this every day. So for them this is business as usual. From our perspective wasting visas are downright criminal given the huge backlog. For them, it is another day and if there is less processing capacity, something will have to take a backseat. This is a case of trying to get one baby in a month using 9 women rather than one women giving birth in 10 months. Not gonna happen.

Across the globe, the productivity has reduced and we drew the short stick as a consequence of the impact. I still think they will try to do as much as possible, but given the furlough, there will still be wasted visas.

This is truly atrocious from our perspective. 25k visas is close to 9 years of country capped visas. Unfortunately, nothing can be done.

Given the anti immigrants running the show in admin, what do you expect? When one senator can explicitly prevent a equality bill from passing, with some of our folks even defending him, what do you expect? There is a large impact due to the suspension of immigration. For example, think of Diversity lottery winners. They essentially won the lottery but cannot collect due to the suspension. Every single group has been impacted, families separated etc.

[qesehmk]

Most naturalized citizens vote democratic. So it beats common sense that under a republican administration the political leadership will prioritize naturalization in an election year. No they won't.

[vsivarama]

Most naturalized citizens vote democratic. So it beats common sense that under a republican administration the political leadership will prioritize naturalization in an election year. No they won't.

That's what sounded so fishy about the quote. My guess is they are lying. They are not prioritizing anything. They just want to use this as a decoy to curb immigration. End of the day (in the future) when we look back and review the stats and realize we have been had, then obviously there is nothing we can do about it.

[1312011_eb2I]

Then why they are moving EB1-I ?Are we expecting EB2I DF to hit 2011 by December 2020?

[karanjohar]

Then why they are moving EB1-I ?Are we expecting EB2I DF to hit 2011 by December 2020?

Maybe they are prioritizing EB1 within EB1,2&3 and maybe within EB1 they are prioritizing people with last names beginning with X, Y and Z.

[1312011_eb2I]

I have so many examples, folks came on L1b in 2013/14, got EB1C filed within an year, got GC in 2015/16 , now talking about Citizenship test.
People came in 2008 , filed on EB2 ( with Masters degree) still waiting for EAD.
So frustrating.

[getsaby]

That's was the way to go back then, only if the misuse was stopped little earlier, we will not be in the current stage.

[dharmindesai]

Not sure I understand why some folks here do not want dates moving far ahead just because it results in ad-hoc gc approvals. Eventually wouldn’t it benefit everyone in the waiting line since there’ll be that many fewer pending cases and dates will start moving faster. If it’s a view based on fairness and principles then why begrudge someone in a similar situation as you, i.e. waiting for a gc for over 10 years, move ahead in line by a couple of years when we see candidates from ROW get greened without waiting more than a year or two. It’s great to expect equality and fairness from all things in life, but the US immigration system isn’t one of them and is not going to be at least in the near future.

[GC-Immigrant]

Not sure I understand why some folks here do not want dates moving far ahead just because it results in ad-hoc gc approvals. Eventually wouldn’t it benefit everyone in the waiting line since there’ll be that many fewer pending cases and dates will start moving faster. If it’s a view based on fairness and principles then why begrudge someone in a similar situation as you, i.e. waiting for a gc for over 10 years, move ahead in line by a couple of years when we see candidates from ROW get greened without waiting more than a year or two. It’s great to expect equality and fairness from all things in life, but the US immigration system isn’t one of them and is not going to be at least in the near future.

They are for profit shops, please ignore them, don't follow any of these VB astrologers, if you have already filed 485, please call congress home land committee members and explain CO and USCIS bias against Indians, 25K GC will clear every one who applied 485.

[bloddy1]

Not sure I understand why some folks here do not want dates moving far ahead just because it results in ad-hoc gc approvals. Eventually wouldn’t it benefit everyone in the waiting line since there’ll be that many fewer pending cases and dates will start moving faster. If it’s a view based on fairness and principles then why begrudge someone in a similar situation as you, i.e. waiting for a gc for over 10 years, move ahead in line by a couple of years when we see candidates from ROW get greened without waiting more than a year or two. It’s great to expect equality and fairness from all things in life, but the US immigration system isn’t one of them and is not going to be at least in the near future.

Because its a Trillion $ scale industry that feeds the following value chain

Person in the Immigration pipeline -> Pays for USCIS - visa every 12-18months Indirectly because the company hiring is going to take cost out of his pay -> attorneys retainers services -> IRS Taxes ->Social Security we dont take anything out but pay in full-> Consumers - the duration we are stateside we consume trillions of dollars

As many people as we can put into this process flow, as legally process allows for, there is no need change anything. Basically, we are the goose laying eggs in a farm and we don't realize that.

[need4speed]

They are for profit shops, please ignore them, don't follow any of these VB astrologers, if you have already filed 485, please call congress home land committee members and explain CO and USCIS bias against Indians, 25K GC will clear every one who applied 485.

This is great. Please share your experience or any template you follow. Also, is there any legal remedy here to prevent wastage?

[getsaby]

The chairwoman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security said Tuesday that a supplemental bill to address the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services' funding shortfall caused by the pandemic will move through Congress this month in an effort to prevent the agency from furloughing about 70% of its staff on Aug. 3.


https://www.law360.com/articles/1289762/congress-plans-new-funding-bill-to-aid-uscis-shortfall

[jimmys]

I am stunned by the callousness of the administration and it's agencies (USCIS and DoS) towards the plight of high skilled, legal, tax paying immigrants. How can you prioritize naturalization over GC approvals when there are upwards of 30,000 people waiting in line for more than a decade. How cruel can an agency be after taking thousands of dollars from the same people they are supposed to serve.

These anti immigrant policies are going to hurt the economy and American way of life in the long term. If you drive away skilled immigrants, they will either go back to their home country or move some where they are accepted. There was a time when people would do desperate things to get a GC, not any more. I see dozens of posts in LinkedIn every day where people are going back home having abandoned the GC process. Also, almost all of my friends who went back have turned in to entrepreneurs. The only thing that is remaining is to stop the spigot of students coming to the US. With the new rule, ICE will accelerate this process.

Then the question is how many such people who are waiting in GC line leave the US permanently? In my 10+ years, I personally know only a couple of people who left their GC process and went back to India permanently. The rest I know were forced to leave and some came back when they got the chance.

[jimmys]

I have so many examples, folks came on L1b in 2013/14, got EB1C filed within an year, got GC in 2015/16 , now talking about Citizenship test.
People came in 2008 , filed on EB2 ( with Masters degree) still waiting for EAD.
So frustrating.

Honestly nothing wrong with that. How EB2 India backlog is EB1-C India's problem?

[qesehmk]

Honestly nothing wrong with that. How EB2 India backlog is EB1-C India's problem?

Yes. I think - people allow their frustration to get the best of themselves and then they start thinking that their US degree is better than somebody's EB1C!
EB1C's have earned their greencards and so have EB2 and all other folks. We all - if we could go back in time - perhaps be making at least a few different choices. But it is unfair to speak of EB1C as if they don't deserve it.

[vckomara]

Yes. I think - people allow their frustration to get the best of themselves and then they start thinking that their US degree is better than somebody's EB1C!
EB1C's have earned their greencards and so have EB2 and all other folks. We all - if we could go back in time - perhaps be making at least a few different choices. But it is unfair to speak of EB1C as if they don't deserve it.

Yes EB1-C’s have their own right for GC’s and there are several well deserved ones but I think most people know many undeserved people got it as well and they applied fully knowing they don’t deserve it. It’s the fault of immigration agencies. They should have proper filters to weed out undeserved and dare I say some fraud cases. In any case, our big fight is against per country caps and not within EB-I categories

[monsieur]

Yes EB1-C’s have their own right for GC’s and there are several well deserved ones but I think most people know many undeserved people got it as well and they applied fully knowing they don’t deserve it. It’s the fault of immigration agencies. They should have proper filters to weed out undeserved and dare I say some fraud cases. In any case, our big fight is against per country caps and not within EB-I categories

Same can be said for EB-2 with masters.

Its the policies which I will place blame on. If given a chance everyone will file in category to get GC faster whether its EB1, EB2 or downgrade to EB3.

[mcmilers]

some people found a loophole in the immigration system and they used it. They win. Am I upset, yes. Would I have used that loophole if I was in their position? Sure.

So there is no point in blaming them. We can blame the system and the gaping holes in the system.

[redtogreen]

The chairwoman of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Homeland Security said Tuesday that a supplemental bill to address the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services' funding shortfall caused by the pandemic will move through Congress this month in an effort to prevent the agency from furloughing about 70% of its staff on Aug. 3.


https://www.law360.com/articles/1289762/congress-plans-new-funding-bill-to-aid-uscis-shortfall

Great!! Let's see what happens! From EB2I perspective, CO can always move dates much further, even with a resource crunch. He already knows that there is a huge spillover happening soon, so he can account for that. In any case, these candidates will receive GC next fiscal year! Atleast let the RFEs start coming in ( some of us have not received a single RFE since 2012 and seeing the trend@Trackitt, TSC is not overly active in sending out RFEs to folks that are already current). This is very logical. I am not sure why CO is being so cautious...maybe it's to do with the 2015 fiasco?!!
Another reason could be the potential eb3 - eb2 porting that he is foreseeing ( maybe trying to prevent that
in some way).

[rabp77]

So Green card and Naturalization cases handled by the same resources in USCIS? CO and DHS can ask USCIS to reserve green card for people who filed I485 (April 2010 for EBI).
In your earlier(few years back)posts, you have mentioned that, you don't like country quota removal and supported ROWs faster green card approvals.

People who already filed I485, please call house home land committee members explain to them that CO and USCIS bias towards Indian immigrants, ask them to reserve(even if its not approved) GC for already filed 485 applications.
Remember paper ready (2014 May) episode, same CO and USCIS opposed advancing priority dates, informed Obama admin that they don't have resources to handle 485 applications, but they accepted h4 ead and processed for backlogged applicants, also DACA EAD.
In 2007 July USCIS processed nearly million application.

Just a note here: i dont think being negative helps when contacting committed members etc.

its better to write to your senator/congress rep for your area, asking that visas not be wasted. And at least pre-adjudicated cases be processed before wasting visa number. The excuse that USCIS lacks the processing capacity for pre-adjucated cases does not hold water as all background checks, interviews, medicals have already been done for these.

[GC-Immigrant]

Just a note here: i dont think being negative helps when contacting committed members etc.

its better to write to your senator/congress rep for your area, asking that visas not be wasted. And at least pre-adjudicated cases be processed before wasting visa number. The excuse that USCIS lacks the processing capacity for pre-adjucated cases does not hold water as all background checks, interviews, medicals have already been done for these.

Yes. People who filed 485 should call congress home land security members and ask them to direct CO to apply for all backlogged Indian applicants, pre-adjudicated cases needs only visa numbers. Hope new admin investigate USCIS and review visa allocations.

[idliman]

Yes. People who filed 485 should call congress home land security members and ask them to direct CO to apply for all backlogged Indian applicants, pre-adjudicated cases needs only visa numbers. Hope new admin investigate USCIS and review visa allocations.
Could you please share more about which sub-committee deals with this issue? Is it Border Security, Facilitation, & Operations or Oversight, Management, & Accountability? Some more direction, such as a link to the members will be appreciated.

[alpha0]

Could you please share more about which sub-committee deals with this issue? Is it Border Security, Facilitation, & Operations or Oversight, Management, & Accountability? Some more direction, such as a link to the members will be appreciated.

Immigration related matters of DHS are handled by immigration subcommittee of Senate Judiciary committee.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

So what type of date movement in DF/FD will be encouraging for EB2I/EB3I folks in the next bulletin?

[Pundit Arjun]

So what type of date movement in DF/FD will be encouraging for EB2I/EB3I folks in the next bulletin?

CURRENT [Sorry couldnt resist :)]. When you are given a choice, ask for all, correct ? ;)

Will be reaching out to the members of the subcommitee today to putforth the points again. Part of me doing something rather than do nothing.
If anyone believes we have a legal way to challenge against the wastage, do let me know. Willing to pitch in and pay for the legal fees as well...

[idliman]

Quote from a Recent WaPo Article 09JUL2020


The Trump administration is turning legal immigrants into undocumented ones.

That is, the “show me your papers” administration has literally switched off printers needed to generate those “papers.”

Without telling Congress, the administration has scaled back the printing of documents it has already promised to immigrants — including green cards, the wallet-size I.D.’s legal permanent residents must carry everywhere to prove they are in the United States lawfully.

In mid-June, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services’ contract ended with the company that had been printing these documents. Production was slated to be insourced, but “the agency’s financial situation,” USCIS said Thursday, prompted a hiring freeze that required it to ratchet down printing.

Of the two facilities where these credentials were printed, one, in Corbin, Ky., shut down production three weeks ago. The other facility, in Lee’s Summit, Mo., appears to be operating at reduced capacity.
AD

Some 50,000 green cards and 75,000 other employment authorization documents promised to immigrants haven’t been printed, USCIS said in a statement. The agency said it had planned to escalate printing but that it “cannot speculate on future projections of processing times.” In the event of furloughs — which the agency has threatened if it does not get a $1.2 billion loan from Congress — “all agency operations will be affected.”

Some of the missing green cards are for immigrants newly approved for legal permanent residency. Others are for existing permanent residents who periodically must renew their identity cards, which expire every 10 years but sometimes must be replaced sooner (for example, if lost). These immigrants have completed every interview, required biometric assessment, cleared other hurdles — and often waited years for these critical credentials.

The Immigration and Nationality Act requires every adult legal permanent resident to carry their green card “at all times.” Failing to carry it is a misdemeanor, subject to jail time or fines. Immigrants must also show their green card to apply for jobs, travel or reenter the United States.

Understandably, panicked immigrants have been inundating USCIS with calls seeking to locate their documents.

“Our volume of inquiries [has] spiked concerning cases being approved, but the cards [are] not being produced,” said one agency employee. “A lot are expedite requests, and we can’t do anything about it; it’s costing people jobs and undue stress.”

This employee added: “It really does frustrate a lot of us to not let applicants know what’s really going on.”

Normally, within 48 hours of an applicant’s approval, USCIS’s online system indicates that a card has been printed. Immigration attorneys across the country have been puzzled recently because these status updates never appeared. Many thought the delays were tied to covid-19, which has caused other service disruptions.

One Philadelphia attorney, Anu Nair, said a USCIS officer let slip in early June that all contractors were about to be laid off and to expect long delays with paperwork.

Memphis-based attorney Elissa Taub inquired about her client’s missing green card and got a cryptic email: “The system has to be updated so that a card can be produced. You will receive the [card] in the mail once the system in updated [sic].”

USCIS, which is funded almost entirely by fees, is undergoing a budget crisis, largely caused by financial mismanagement by political leadership. The printing disruptions are no doubt a preview of chaos to come if the agency furloughs about 70 percent of its workforce, as it has said it will do in a few weeks absent a congressional bailout.

In recent conversations with congressional staffers about cutting contracts to save money, USCIS mentioned only one contract, for a different division, that was being reduced — and made no reference to this printing contract, according to a person who took part in those discussions. The company that had this contract, Logistics Systems Inc., did not respond to emails and calls this week requesting comment.

The administration has taken other steps in recent months that curb immigration. Presidential executive orders have almost entirely ended issuance of green cards and work-based visas for people applying from outside the country; red tape and bureaucracy have slowed the process for those applying from within U.S. borders. For a while, the agency refused to forward files from one office to another. The centers that collect necessary biometric data remain shuttered.

These pipeline delays are likely to dramatically reduce the number of green cards ultimately approved and issued this year.

Under normal circumstances, immigrants who need proof of legal residency but haven’t yet received their green card would have an alternative: get a special passport stamp from USCIS. But amid covid-related changes, applicants must provide evidence of a “critical need,” with little guidance about what that means.
AD

“The bottom line is that applicants pay huge filing fees, and it appears that these fees have apparently been either squandered through mismanagement or diverted to enforcement-focused initiatives, to the great detriment of applicants as well as the overall efficiency of the immigration process,” says Anis Saleh, an immigration attorney in Coral Gables, Fla. “The administration has accomplished its goal of shutting down legal immigration without actually changing the law.”

[prabakarb]

Yes. People who filed 485 should call congress home land security members and ask them to direct CO to apply for all backlogged Indian applicants, pre-adjudicated cases needs only visa numbers. Hope new admin investigate USCIS and review visa allocations.

Quick question reg. Pre-adjudicated cases. I have filed 485 in 2012 and responded to a RFE for medicals and employment letter in 2015. I believe my case is pre-adjudicated. In this case, if visa number is available in future, will I receive RFE for medicals and employment letter again? or they will simply approve my case?

[mcmilers]

you will receive a RFE for medicals as they are not valid anymore. Medicals validity nowaways is 2 years.

[lville]

Anyone here who had interview in last one or two weeks ? My interview is scheduled for July 27 and would like to know what to expect. I know we are supposed to wear mask, bring pens and what else ? How are they going to take our photo with mask on ? LOL or verify if it's the correct person for interview ?

[idliman]

Quick question reg. Pre-adjudicated cases. I have filed 485 in 2012 and responded to a RFE for medicals and employment letter in 2015. I believe my case is pre-adjudicated. In this case, if visa number is available in future, will I receive RFE for medicals and employment letter again? or they will simply approve my case?
June and July current folks have been getting RFE for medicals, G-325A and EVL/Supp. J. In some cases even people who submitted medicals in the last year of so still got a template RFE requesting for everything. NSC is better as they asked for medicals for all folks in 2018. So NSC has been got about 60% approval whereas TSC is only below 20%.

If I were in your shoes, I would start planning for medical. Maybe time to look at the old paperwork and enquire with your favorite USCIS approved civil surgeon about cost, test return timing, etc. Compared to 2012, you are required to take new tests for TB and STDs.

[redtogreen]

Quote from a Recent WaPo Article 09JUL2020

What?!!This is a roller coaster ride that we are on. The upcoming visa bulletin should throw more light.

[android09]

What?!!This is a roller coaster ride that we are on. The upcoming visa bulletin should throw more light.

Ride's just begun. The President just announced he's going to sign a big immigration executive order that has some sort of path to citizenship for DACA among other "Merit based" things. I think it means higher wage levels for sure among other things.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/506844-trump-says-hell-sign-order-with-road-to-citizenship-for-daca

[rabp77]

Just noticed that the i765 form (https://www.uscis.gov/system/files_force/files/form/i-765.pdf?download=1) on USCIS website has expired (the expriation date is 5/31/2020). Dont know if we can still use this form. Any thoughs on whether this form can even be used now ?

[calking1975]

Ride's just begun. The President just announced he's going to sign a big immigration executive order that has some sort of path to citizenship for DACA among other "Merit based" things. I think it means higher wage levels for sure among other things.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/506844-trump-says-hell-sign-order-with-road-to-citizenship-for-daca

Wow, looks like Trump using his powers to give new EO, which includes broad Immigration regulations.
He indirectly quoting, SCOTUS gave more powers to President, they couldn't stop ex President's EO.
So it's my time to give BIG EO :rolleyes:

[IamGSN]

Just noticed that the i765 form (https://www.uscis.gov/system/files_force/files/form/i-765.pdf?download=1) on USCIS website has expired (the expriation date is 5/31/2020). Dont know if we can still use this form. Any thoughs on whether this form can even be used now ?

Despite the expired form , this is what my attorney indicated from USCIS site, the form can still be used:

“12/26/19. We will publish a new edition of this form soon. In the meantime, you may continue using the 12/26/19 edition despite the expiration date. You can find the edition date at the bottom of the page on the form and instructions.

Dates are listed in mm/dd/yy format.”

[bikenlalan]

Just noticed that the i765 form (https://www.uscis.gov/system/files_force/files/form/i-765.pdf?download=1) on USCIS website has expired (the expriation date is 5/31/2020). Dont know if we can still use this form. Any thoughs on whether this form can even be used now ?

Just used this form last week to apply for EAD. It was accepted with no issues and received the receipt notice.

[Umesh1209]

Hi - Not sure if anyone have a wired situation like me. Some background - I am EB2I with priority date of in Dec-09. I got a RFE in Dec'19 and I responded to it in Feb'20(Medical, 485J for me & my wife). My case was updated again and I got a RFE today(text & web site update). I am yet to get my RFE letter. Did any one get RFE with in a span of 6 months?

[idliman]

Hi - Not sure if anyone have a wired situation like me. Some background - I am EB2I with priority date of in Dec-09. I got a RFE in Dec'19 and I responded to it in Feb'20(Medical, 485J for me & my wife). My case was updated again and I got a RFE today(text & web site update). I am yet to get my RFE letter. Did any one get RFE with in a span of 6 months?
Hopefully this is for G-325A.

[rabp77]

Just used this form last week to apply for EAD. It was accepted with no issues and received the receipt notice.


thank you so much Sensei Bikenlalan and Sensei IamGSN. i have sent it using the same expired form. Hoping they dont end up introducing the new forms during the time my mail is in transit.

[Umesh1209]

I submitted this as well as part of the response. So curious to know if any one RFE for any other document

[idliman]

I submitted this as well as part of the response. So curious to know if any one RFE for any other document
Maybe for not penciling A# on the back of photo or it can be request for another set of photos. I can't imagine the mindset of the employees facing Furlough. Stephen Miller had successfully managed to get rid of whatever process chain that was remaining in USCIS.

[mcmilers]

https://fcw.com/articles/2020/07/15/russell-dhs-appropriations.aspx?m=1

Is this useful?

[1312011_eb2I]

I don’t think so since its for next year( starts OCT)
Easiest way for USCIS to collect money for AUG and SEPT , move DOF to 1 year and acknowledge It, they can collect money from new I-485/EAD filings.

[ferric]

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/7508?s=1&r=1

This one is probably more useful, but to pass both house and senate in 2 weeks seems impossible. Furloughs are almost certain starting 8/3...

[longwaitgigu]

Does this bill prevent SO from FB to EB

[longwaitgigu]

Does the house appropriation bill prevents SO from FB to EB

[kb2013]

Anyone willing to guess what the FAD will be in the upcoming bulletin? My guess, based on the trends, EB2I : 22-Jul-2009, EB3I : 08-Jul-2009
(It wouldn't be a surprise, if USCIS doesn't move dates or retrogresses dates due to lack of funds to process)

I am curious to see who gets it closest.

[getsaby]

My 2 anaa...

FA
EB2: 01AUG09
EB3: 22SEP09


FAD
EB2: 08SEP09
EB3: 22FEB10

[Blue_fairy]

...and if you stick your neck out and predict that dates will go past Oct, 7th, and your prediction turns out to be accurate, I'll send you a gift hamper!


My 2 anaa...

FA
EB2: 01AUG09
EB3: 22SEP09


FAD
EB2: 08SEP09
EB3: 22FEB10

[rocketfast]

There has been only 3 EB2-I and 3 EB3-I applications approved in the last 3 weeks (in trackitt). So they have pretty much stopped processing EB2 and EB3 applications. It does not matter what visa bulletin says. EB1 though seems to be still getting approvals.

[gthbvf]

Please help to interpret this amendment in DHS appropriations bill and impact EB Spillover

"Rep. Meng – The amendment allows unused FY20 diversity visas, employment visas, and family-based visas to remain available in FY21 in addition to what would otherwise be available for FY21, and allows any unused visas at the end of FY21 to remain available during FY22. The amendment was adopted by voice vote."

Source :-https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/appropriations-committee-approves-fiscal-year-2021-homeland-security-funding

[gthbvf]

Please comment on how spillover will be impacted by amendment in DHS funding bill

"Rep. Meng – The amendment allows unused FY20 diversity visas, employment visas, and family-based visas to remain available in FY21 in addition to what would otherwise be available for FY21, and allows any unused visas at the end of FY21 to remain available during FY22. The amendment was adopted by voice vote."

Source :-
https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/appropriations-committee-approves-fiscal-year-2021-homeland-security-funding

[h1bh1bh1b]

Please comment on how spillover will be impacted by amendment in DHS funding bill

"Rep. Meng – The amendment allows unused FY20 diversity visas, employment visas, and family-based visas to remain available in FY21 in addition to what would otherwise be available for FY21, and allows any unused visas at the end of FY21 to remain available during FY22. The amendment was adopted by voice vote."

Source :-
https://appropriations.house.gov/news/press-releases/appropriations-committee-approves-fiscal-year-2021-homeland-security-funding

That means no visas available as spillover . Those seats are reserved to be used at later date. Mmm

[redsox2009]

A couple of days ago DOL released their QTR numbers.

29483 new PERM applications.

35058 applications were approved during this period.


Total 66235 applications approved since Oct 2019.

Out of those total approvals, 33569(50.7%) applicants are Indians, and 8704(13.1%) applicants are Chinese.

Perhaps it is too early or it is start of the trend, Applicants from Mexico are increasing and down the line we could see cut off dates for them for EB2 and EB3. At this point they are 2374(3.6%) and if this goes beyond 5% then CO has to adjust between Family Based and Employment Based numbers for Mexicans.

Over all new Perm applications increased 9.7% compared to last year Q3.

Last year Q3 71117 applicants were approved, and 37917 Indian applicants and 7891 are Chinese.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

DHS House Appropriations Bill for next FY2021

https://appropriations.house.gov/sites/democrats.appropriations.house.gov/files/Homeland%20Full%20Committee%20Print%20%28Report%29 %2038855.PDF

(Page 73)

Unused Visas.—The Committee is concerned that the Departments of Homeland Security and State have neglected their duty
under the Immigration and Nationality Act to take affirmative
steps to fully allocate all available immigrant visa numbers to prospective family- and employment-based immigrants. This inaction
is especially concerning given the unprecedented demand for such
visa numbers and the availability of ready and willing applicants
currently within the United States, including many currently employed in occupations deemed essential by the Department of
Homeland Security. Not later than 30 days after the date of enactment of this Act, the Committee directs USCIS, in consultation
with the Department of State, to brief the Committee on a plan to
fully allocate family- and employment-based visas in fiscal year
2021, and a contingency plan to allocate prior year unused visas in
the event that such action is required (see, e.g., Silva v. Bell, 605
F.2d 978 (7th Cir. 1979)).

[redtogreen]

DHS House Appropriations Bill for next FY2021

https://appropriations.house.gov/sites/democrats.appropriations.house.gov/files/Homeland%20Full%20Committee%20Print%20%28Report%29 %2038855.PDF

(Page 73)

Unused Visas.—The Committee is concerned that the Departments of Homeland Security and State have neglected their duty
under the Immigration and Nationality Act to take affirmative
steps to fully allocate all available immigrant visa numbers to prospective family- and employment-based immigrants. This inaction
is especially concerning given the unprecedented demand for such
visa numbers and the availability of ready and willing applicants
currently within the United States, including many currently employed in occupations deemed essential by the Department of
Homeland Security. Not later than 30 days after the date of enactment of this Act, the Committee directs USCIS, in consultation
with the Department of State, to brief the Committee on a plan to
fully allocate family- and employment-based visas in fiscal year
2021, and a contingency plan to allocate prior year unused visas in
the event that such action is required (see, e.g., Silva v. Bell, 605
F.2d 978 (7th Cir. 1979)).

Not sure how to interpret this ... Good news or bad news? There is a concern of visas being wasted across the board and looks like they are trying to fix in a way that each category gets it's share even if it's in the future(by no spillover or such contingency plans) that's bad news for EBI. But we now know that the inaction is recognized at some level, hopefully leading to some traction. I think the next visa bulletin will tell if these speculations add up to anything positive for EBI.

[calking1975]

Not sure how to interpret this ... Good news or bad news? There is a concern of visas being wasted across the board and looks like they are trying to fix in a way that each category gets it's share even if it's in the future(by no spillover or such contingency plans) that's bad news for EBI. But we now know that the inaction is recognized at some level, hopefully leading to some traction. I think the next visa bulletin will tell if these speculations add up to anything positive for EBI.

It’s only for 2 years right, Fy2021 & 22.
Or is it permanent

[redtogreen]

It’s only for 2 years right, Fy2021 & 22.
Or is it permanent

I didn't read fy22 in the article pasted above and also didn't bother to research beyond that.Things are very volatile and everyone is speculating. The visa bulletin is the only real artifact that will help in gauging the visa wastage. Of course what happens after the fact is to be seen!!

[EB32010]

August VB out
EB1: Feb 8 2018 (276 days)
EB2: Jul 1 2009 (No change)
EB3: Oct 1 2009 (122 days)

Why wouldn’t EB2 move? Makes no sense to me.

[rabp77]

August VB out
EB1: Feb 8 2018 (276 days)
EB2: Jul 1 2009 (No change)
EB3: Oct 1 2009 (122 days)

Why wouldn’t EB2 move? Makes no sense to me.

thats especially strange given that EB2 ROW has been current for a long time (and has a long list of pre-adjucated cases). Are they trying to apply all unused visas to EB3 rather than EB2 ?

EB 3 ROW is nearly current now (april 2020). So any that should set up EB3 india for future movement.

[getsaby]

So early in the morning wow.... what was the point of stalling it so late?

But very strange for Eb2....may be a lot of applications from prior 2 VB dates are still not approved so they are giving time to USCIS to process those??

They should honor "DATES FOR FILING" at least in this month, or better alternate it...one month "FINAL ACTION DATES" next month "DATES FOR FILING" and so on...

I bet there are hardly any applications left in EB3-I for 2009, all have taken EB2's express highway!

[eb2may2010]

Completely does not make sense..they should have atleast moved it to build inventory for next year when there will be a spill over..missed the boat in 2012 by 3 weeks ..seems like this wait is forever

[IamGSN]

So early in the morning wow.... what was the point of stalling it so late?

But very strange for Eb2....may be a lot of applications from prior 2 VB dates are still not approved so they are giving time to USCIS to process those??

They should honor "DATES FOR FILING" at least in this month, or better alternate it...one month "FINAL ACTION DATES" next month "DATES FOR FILING" and so on...

I bet there are hardly any applications left in EB3-I for 2009, all have taken EB2's express highway!


Guys,

Finally my date is current this morning!!! Once I get the Green card, howlong I should stay with same employer?

[idliman]

Guys,

Finally my date is current this morning!!! Once I get the Green card, howlong I should stay with same employer?
Congratulations. There is no official requirement. However, I have come across people who stay for 6 months with the same employer. It shows your intent and will help you to avoid unnecessary trouble if and when you decide to go for Citizenship.

[vsivarama]

I bet there are hardly any applications left in EB3-I for 2009, all have taken EB2's express highway!

It could also be a result of the EO and no visas are being processed at the consulate. Last I checked there were some ~11k (I don't have the stats in front of me) cases in EB3 that are consular processing. Also to add the vast majority of the 2800 for EB3-I were CP cases as per the trends in the recent years.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Any silver lining for EB2I based on EB2-ROW being current?

[IamGSN]

Congratulations. There is no official requirement. However, I have come across people who stay for 6 months with the same employer. It shows your intent and will help you to avoid unnecessary trouble if and when you decide to go for Citizenship.

I was thinking in the same line. Thanks for the input @idliman. Hope I see the "Card is being produced" soon and not sure if I will have to go for interview yet. My interview was cancelled last time in April due to Covid.

[EB2IndSep09]

August VB out
EB1: Feb 8 2018 (276 days)
EB2: Jul 1 2009 (No change)
EB3: Oct 1 2009 (122 days)

Why wouldn’t EB2 move? Makes no sense to me.

Now what all EB3 to EB2 porters are going to come back into EB3? Weaving in traffic :p

[qesehmk]

Guys,

Finally my date is current this morning!!! Once I get the Green card, howlong I should stay with same employer?
There is no rule that I know of. So if you leave the next day for another employer, the USCIS and justice department can't necessarily deport you easily.

[IamGSN]

Thanks Q for Clarifying, I am getting my GC after 12 years wait. And I am getting FT the current client, so I want to move to new employer legally without any issues.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Q for Clarifying, I am getting my GC after 12 years wait. And I am getting FT the current client, so I want to move to new employer legally without any issues.

I wish you and everybody else the best money for your skills. You totally deserve it. Just keep EB backlogged folks in mind and do what you can even after earning your GC - even if it means simply speaking about it. My best!

[gkjppp]

Hi Guys, what is happening with EB2 I? why no forward movement? anyone has idea how many pending I-485 cases between Jul 08/2009 to May 1st, 2010?. I am an optimistic guy, expected mine will become current by Dec 2020. Looks like chances are bleak.

[redtogreen]

Now what all EB3 to EB2 porters are going to come back into EB3? Weaving in traffic :p

Not sure why such treatment for EB2. Not even a month's movement to generate RFEs. Did EB2 even get any spillover this year based on the movement so far and the pending inventory that we are aware of?! If the same attitude continues, then EB2I may reach late 2009@ FY21 due to the potential spillover ( which may OR may not happen due to numerous bills circulating) and remain the usual stagnant after that!! I have a PD of early 2010, so I think all this cut my wait by a year or so. I had 4 years in mind at the start of fy20, now maybe 2-3 years. I am generally an optimist. But looking at the current scenario, prefer to be realistic!! Ciao for sometime now.

[h1bh1bh1b]

Finally my date is current! What are the next steps? And how long (?!) it will take to get GC :)

[gcvijay]

I wish you and everybody else the best money for your skills. You totally deserve it. Just keep EB backlogged folks in mind and do what you can even after earning your GC - even if it means simply speaking about it. My best!

I will be current in EB2 and EB3 categories starting August. Is there any chance to get my GC or the USCIS furlough is going to hinder that process this time after a 11 yr wait time? Any updates on whether USCIS will be funded?

[alpha0]

Hi Guys, what is happening with EB2 I? why no forward movement? anyone has idea how many pending I-485 cases between Jul 08/2009 to May 1st, 2010?. I am an optimistic guy, expected mine will become current by Dec 2020. Looks like chances are bleak.

This is my thinking - CO considered that USCIS willl lose majority of staff on Aug 3 furloughs. Eb2 I who would have filed in 2012 will need more processing (relatively), review of files and RFEs (medical, EVL etc) and may be they dont have staff to process those in case of furloughs. For Eb3 India, all eligible have filed after Oct 2018, interviewed last year by FOs and medicals also current, so much less processing.

I feel that in Oct 2020, both eb2 and eb3i will have same final action date.

[getsaby]

I hope your words do come true....waited so long let's wait for 2 more months...
Do you think they will issue medical RFE again for folks who submitted it in 2018?
This will be my 4th medical...

[jimmys]

I will be current in EB2 and EB3 categories starting August. Is there any chance to get my GC or the USCIS furlough is going to hinder that process this time after a 11 yr wait time? Any updates on whether USCIS will be funded?

EB2 India dates didn't move for the month of Aug. So you should be current in EB-2 in July itself. Am I missing anything? :confused:

[jimmys]

This is my thinking - CO considered that USCIS willl lose majority of staff on Aug 3 furloughs. Eb2 I who would have filed in 2012 will need more processing (relatively), review of files and RFEs (medical, EVL etc) and may be they dont have staff to process those in case of furloughs. For Eb3 India, all eligible have filed after Oct 2018, interviewed last year by FOs and medicals also current, so much less processing.

I feel that in Oct 2020, both eb2 and eb3i will have same final action date.

Or the other reason for EB-3 movement is, the consulate closures in FY 20. After June 22,2020 proclamation, the DoS/USCIS decided to distribute the EB-3 numbers among the AOS candidates irrespective of the country (EB-3 CP numbers are usually higher that EB-2 on any given year). I am seeing EB-3 movements across the board to utilize the available visas within the EB-3 category.

On the other hand, EB-2 may be exhausting its annual quota just with AOS candidates.

[gcvijay]

You are right nothing happened.

[qesehmk]

I will be current in EB2 and EB3 categories starting August. Is there any chance to get my GC or the USCIS furlough is going to hinder that process this time after a 11 yr wait time? Any updates on whether USCIS will be funded?

Among backlogged folks - anybody who will be current should get their GC within 3 weeks max. Relax just sit back.

[EB2IndSep09]

EB2 India dates didn't move for the month of Aug. So you should be current in EB-2 in July itself. Am I missing anything? :confused:

May be gcVijay's PD is between June 1st 2009 and Jul 8 2009. It was not current last month in EB3 and now in both. But again to Jimmy's point why not file this month in EB2 in that case.

[EB2IndSep09]

Not sure why such treatment for EB2. Not even a month's movement to generate RFEs. Did EB2 even get any spillover this year based on the movement so far and the pending inventory that we are aware of?! If the same attitude continues, then EB2I may reach late 2009@ FY21 due to the potential spillover ( which may OR may not happen due to numerous bills circulating) and remain the usual stagnant after that!! I have a PD of early 2010, so I think all this cut my wait by a year or so. I had 4 years in mind at the start of fy20, now maybe 2-3 years. I am generally an optimist. But looking at the current scenario, prefer to be realistic!! Ciao for sometime now.

Nothing is going to happen unless voiced out. There is only 1 rationale that I can think of for the EB3 movement is due to porting and no demand in EB3.
This movement is inline with the trend from June to July where EB2 FA dates moved less than a month and EB3 by 2 months, but no one saw this coming.

[LASHAB]

My PD has become current in the Aug visa bulletin. I had downgraded from EB2 to EB3 and my 485 was filed in Feb 2020. I recieved my EAD and 131 approval but have not recived letter for bio metric appointment or interview. Want to know from knowledgable people in this forum if I need to do raise a SR for either.

[LASHAB]

My 140 in EB3 was approved a few days back as I had requested for premium processing which was approved.

[Crypto]

Among backlogged folks - anybody who will be current should get their GC within 3 weeks max. Relax just sit back.

I am afraid this is not true Q at least right now. My dates became current last month (July visa bulletin) however I have not heard anything. I am checking every day on thier website however status is still showing approval of my RFE in August 2018. I believe someone posted that per folks on trackit only 3 EB2 and 3 EB3 GCs have been processed so far....:mad::mad::mad:

[alpha0]

Nothing is going to happen unless voiced out. There is only 1 rationale that I can think of for the EB3 movement is due to porting and no demand in EB3.
This movement is inline with the trend from June to July where EB2 FA dates moved less than a month and EB3 by 2 months, but no one saw this coming.

2 months back, eb3 was 3 months behind eb2 india. This is not linear regression. As i said earlier, there is no shortage of visas this year. Issue is of time and resource capacity. Review of 2012 files and RFE issue, receiving RFE docs, sending those back to immigration officer takes few weeks and i feel CO does not want whatever remaining resources into that activity which may not consume a visa before Sep 30.

Just last checkin with Charlie, he was saying eb1/eb2 will not be able to consume their full quota and eb3 will and many on this forum were talking about eb2 reachiing sep/oct 2009 before oct 2020. Just google predictions of people until yday.

[qesehmk]

I am afraid this is not true Q at least right now. My dates became current last month (July visa bulletin) however I have not heard anything. I am checking every day on thier website however status is still showing approval of my RFE in August 2018. I believe someone posted that per folks on trackit only 3 EB2 and 3 EB3 GCs have been processed so far....:mad::mad::mad:
There are always exceptions. But generally this is true.

Your 3 weeks will be over tomorrow. You are still within the window. However if you do not hear then you should definitely open a case and/or contact senior state senator or congressman whoever you trust more. Good luck!

[redtogreen]

2 months back, eb3 was 3 months behind eb2 india. This is not linear regression. As i said earlier, there is no shortage of visas this year. Issue is of time and resource capacity. Review of 2012 files and RFE issue, receiving RFE docs, sending those back to immigration officer takes few weeks and i feel CO does not want whatever remaining resources into that activity which may not consume a visa before Sep 30.

Just last checkin with Charlie, he was saying eb1/eb2 will not be able to consume their full quota and eb3 will and many on this forum were talking about eb2 reachiing sep/oct 2009 before oct 2020. Just google predictions of people until yday.

I agree but one of the concerned groups right now ( due to current bulletin) is that of EB2I folks whose PD is early 2010, who have filed their 485s and have been patiently waiting since 2012. Calculations now ( based on the data that we have) show that reaching 2010 is a hit or miss next fiscal year, whereas it was more positive until last month. This group will agree abt the frustrating ordeal to miss the boat by a few months(or days?!) knowing there were visas that got wasted! Anyways, let's hope for the best. We have waited so far, let's wait until Dec to see how it goes. Maybe that's the right time to vent out frustrations.

[usvisas]

Q - do you mean 3 weeks for those whose cases have been pre adjudicated and in the clear (interview and all done)

[qesehmk]

Q - do you mean 3 weeks for those whose cases have been pre adjudicated and in the clear (interview and all done)

That's precisely what I mean. Now if somebody never done those things - obviously they will take more time. But we are talking about backlogged folks who have already filed 485 for years.

Sorry. I should have made this clear right up front.

[alpha0]

I agree but one of the concerned groups right now ( due to current bulletin) is that of EB2I folks whose PD is early 2010, who have filed their 485s and have been patiently waiting since 2012. Calculations now ( based on the data that we have) show that reaching 2010 is a hit or miss next fiscal year, whereas it was more positive until last month. This group will agree abt the frustrating ordeal to miss the boat by a few months(or days?!) knowing there were visas that got wasted! Anyways, let's hope for the best. We have waited so far, let's wait until Dec to see how it goes. Maybe that's the right time to vent out frustrations.

I agree. Wait till first quarter to see the progress. I see two things in favor of eb2india - eb2 row is current and eb2 has historically less consular processing cases, where as eb3 row is not yet current and once EO ends, india+phillipines will start consuming more and more of eb3 visas next year.

And if 100k+SO comes from FB, then it will be a completely different situation.

[IamGSN]

That's precisely what I mean. Now if somebody never done those things - obviously they will take more time. But we are talking about backlogged folks who have already filed 485 for years.

Sorry. I should have made this clear right up front.

Q,

What is preadjudicated mean? I had filed my I-485 with Medical last year, finished my Biometrics, responded to RFE and got accepted.

Interview was scheduled and got cancelled due to Covid -19. Not sure if USCIS will reschedule interview in near future due to Pandemic. My I-485 is pending approval due to visa availability, but it will be current in August. So am I preadjudicated? or I need to wait for the interview.

[alpha0]

Q,

What is preadjudicated mean? I had filed my I-485 with Medical last year, finished my Biometrics, responded to RFE and got accepted.

Interview was scheduled and got cancelled due to Covid -19. Not sure if USCIS will reschedule interview in near future due to Pandemic. My I-485 is pending approval due to visa availability, but it will be current in August. So am I preadjudicated? or I need to wait for the interview.

You are NOT preadjudicated. You will have to wait for interview unless USCIS waives it.

[4WatItsWorth]

You are NOT preadjudicated. You will have to wait for interview unless USCIS waives it.

My interview was in December last year but the status has been, “...case must be reviewed.” Is it pre-adjudicated? How do I know when it is?

[qesehmk]

Q,

What is preadjudicated mean? I had filed my I-485 with Medical last year, finished my Biometrics, responded to RFE and got accepted.

Interview was scheduled and got cancelled due to Covid -19. Not sure if USCIS will reschedule interview in near future due to Pandemic. My I-485 is pending approval due to visa availability, but it will be current in August. So am I preadjudicated? or I need to wait for the interview.
It would mean they would do everything on the case except for visa allocation. So whenever the visa was ready they would assign.

In old days (5-10 years back) 485 interview was very rare. And so the whole preadjudication was relatively fast (3 months). I do not know what's the situation now. I would guess they are waiving the interview requirement in light of covid. But I do not know for sure.

[rabp77]

It would mean they would do everything on the case except for visa allocation. So whenever the visa was ready they would assign.

In old days (5-10 years back) 485 interview was very rare. And so the whole preadjudication was relatively fast (3 months). I do not know what's the situation now. I would guess they are waiving the interview requirement in light of covid. But I do not know for sure.

Hi Q,

thats informative. one question. can we assume that a case is "Pre-adjudicated" if interview/fingerprint is complete, and all medicals were sent in Oct-2019, and we have not heard back since then. My Status still shows "Interview is Scheduled" for the last one year, even though we completed the interview in october 2019.

thank you

[usvisas]

does anyone know of waived interviews in the last 3-4 months?

[srimurthy]

I agree. Wait till first quarter to see the progress. I see two things in favor of eb2india - eb2 row is current and eb2 has historically less consular processing cases, where as eb3 row is not yet current and once EO ends, india+phillipines will start consuming more and more of eb3 visas next year.

And if 100k+SO comes from FB, then it will be a completely different situation.

Man I love the optimistic and positive outlook here.
I gave up long time as I feel even if there is a chance for CO to move dates for EB2I with so many pre adjudicated cases they hardly moved the dates. When every common person is expecting there may be around 40K visas available for use because of consular offices closure, I feel there is no intent to clear or use the numbers or visas available. And when there is no intent no matter what we try to calculate or predict, there will always be an outliner to support what CO wants to do.

[qesehmk]

Hi Q,

thats informative. one question. can we assume that a case is "Pre-adjudicated" if interview/fingerprint is complete, and all medicals were sent in Oct-2019, and we have not heard back since then. My Status still shows "Interview is Scheduled" for the last one year, even though we completed the interview in october 2019.

thank you
If there is no RFE so far and your date is going to be current next month, then I would think your case ready to grant a visa (i.e. GC). Good luck!

[alpha0]

Man I love the optimistic and positive outlook here.
I gave up long time as I feel even if there is a chance for CO to move dates for EB2I with so many pre adjudicated cases they hardly moved the dates. When every common person is expecting there may be around 40K visas available for use because of consular offices closure, I feel there is no intent to clear or use the numbers or visas available. And when there is no intent no matter what we try to calculate or predict, there will always be an outliner to support what CO wants to do.

No one knows why CO did not start moving eb2india dates 2-3 months back.

[getsaby]

Ahoy Q (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/member.php/2-qesehmk)

What you make of my Case, I replied to Medical and Supp J RFE on August 15, 2018, do you think I have to do medical again, this will be my fourth time
my PD Eb2I with 10/19/2009.

Can we SUE DHS regarding this whole medical thing, it is an unnecessary burden on us

[redtogreen]

I agree. Wait till first quarter to see the progress. I see two things in favor of eb2india - eb2 row is current and eb2 has historically less consular processing cases, where as eb3 row is not yet current and once EO ends, india+phillipines will start consuming more and more of eb3 visas next year.

And if 100k+SO comes from FB, then it will be a completely different situation.

The massive SO (if it actually happens given some bills circulating) is only around 2000 additional visas for EB2I due to category + country caps, enough to cover until late 2009. Rest depends on vertical and horizontal SO, if only utilized the way they should be. We are currently seeing what is happening with such SO for EB2I irrespective of visa availability, so It's too early to predict any traction for PDs in 2010. So let's hang in there! The first quarter will be interesting but the current visa bulletin kind of gives an insight.

[qesehmk]

Ahoy Q (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/member.php/2-qesehmk)

What you make of my Case, I replied to Medical and Supp J RFE on August 15, 2018, do you think I have to do medical again, this will be my fourth time
my PD Eb2I with 10/19/2009.

Can we SUE DHS regarding this whole medical thing, it is an unnecessary burden on us

Generally speaking somebody like you should not be worried at all. If there was a problem it would have been known by now.

I agree on medical. The root of that practice lies in USA's insistence on "Good moral conduct" as a key requirement for immigration eligibility. Thus they prohibited homosexuals until (I believe) in 1990 when Bush Sr allowed homosexuals. So I really don't understand the purpose of the medical at all.

As per suing ... this is the greatest country on earth ... I truly believe that because you can sue government and have a fair chance of winning. In this particular case you will have to prove that this puts undue burden on you. I think that will be the case. Otherwise you don't have a case.

[alpha0]

The massive SO (if it actually happens given some bills circulating) is only around 2000 additional visas for EB2I due to category + country caps, enough to cover until late 2009. Rest depends on vertical and horizontal SO, if only utilized the way they should be. We are currently seeing what is happening with such SO for EB2I irrespective of visa availability, so It's too early to predict any traction for PDs in 2010. So let's hang in there! The first quarter will be interesting but the current visa bulletin kind of gives an insight.

We dont know what will be FB SO numbers (if any depending on bills as you said). Since Eb2 ROW is current and demand for Eb2 ROW will definitely not more in 2021 compared to current year or previous year, most of the Eb2 spillover should come to Eb2 India.

[eb2may2010]

Hello all, my priority date is in may 2010 ..any hope to get a chance to file 485 this year? It's been a endless wait and kind of getting tired after 18 years here...

[redtogreen]

We dont know what will be FB SO numbers (if any depending on bills as you said). Since Eb2 ROW is current and demand for Eb2 ROW will definitely not more in 2021 compared to current year or previous year, most of the Eb2 spillover should come to Eb2 India.

Appreciate the optimism.

[Crypto]

There are always exceptions. But generally this is true.

Your 3 weeks will be over tomorrow. You are still within the window. However if you do not hear then you should definitely open a case and/or contact senior state senator or congressman whoever you trust more. Good luck!

Q, looking for some more guidance here. I looked up at USCIS website for opening up the case. They suggest opening a case if your believe your case is taking longer then there normal processing time. Unfortunately I could not find specific time frame for getting Card once the your priority becomes current. All they have published is time it takes for I485 processing.

Is there a published time line for getting card in 3 weeks post date becoming current? If not what info to provide supporting my case is taking longer then there processing time?

I have filled 485 in 2012, applied for 4th EAD renewal and got it recently. Also my RFE for medical and Supp J was received by USCIS in Aug 2018 so technically I am still under 2 years of medical renewal need.

[qesehmk]

Don't stress out. It's around the corner. Don't open a case if they say so. Just contact your senator or congressman.
Q, looking for some more guidance here. I looked up at USCIS website for opening up the case. They suggest opening a case if your believe your case is taking longer then there normal processing time. Unfortunately I could not find specific time frame for getting Card once the your priority becomes current. All they have published is time it takes for I485 processing.

Is there a published time line for getting card in 3 weeks post date becoming current? If not what info to provide supporting my case is taking longer then there processing time?

I have filled 485 in 2012, applied for 4th EAD renewal and got it recently. Also my RFE for medical and Supp J was received by USCIS in Aug 2018 so technically I am still under 2 years of medical renewal need.

[getsaby]

What is your PD Crypto, I assume you are Eb2-I.


Q, looking for some more guidance here. I looked up at USCIS website for opening up the case. They suggest opening a case if your believe your case is taking longer then there normal processing time. Unfortunately I could not find specific time frame for getting Card once the your priority becomes current. All they have published is time it takes for I485 processing.

Is there a published time line for getting card in 3 weeks post date becoming current? If not what info to provide supporting my case is taking longer then there processing time?

I have filled 485 in 2012, applied for 4th EAD renewal and got it recently. Also my RFE for medical and Supp J was received by USCIS in Aug 2018 so technically I am still under 2 years of medical renewal need.

[Crypto]

What is your PD Crypto, I assume you are Eb2-I.

7 Jul 2009. EB2-I.

[idliman]

Man I love the optimistic and positive outlook here.
I gave up long time as I feel even if there is a chance for CO to move dates for EB2I with so many pre adjudicated cases they hardly moved the dates. When every common person is expecting there may be around 40K visas available for use because of consular offices closure, I feel there is no intent to clear or use the numbers or visas available. And when there is no intent no matter what we try to calculate or predict, there will always be an outliner to support what CO wants to do.
I did not want to say anything when the DF for EB2I is 15AUG09. It kind of indirectly says that we expect the FA to be that day at the end of 2021. I would love to hear from folks that still claim that DOS and USCIS are fair and doing it per book. It looks like some people in this forum still believe in that. If someone still thinks that they can calculate the EB2I movements, kindly spill your wisdom. I strongly believe that the system is rigged against EB2I for whatever reason. Unfortunately EB2I had manged to cultivate enemies (in DOS or USCIS or admin) that hate us with a passion.

I don't think Stephen Miller visits this blog. If he has got the spare time, then more power to him.

I have been trying to not get into politically charged discussions, especially when I don't have the right to vote. However, I sincerely wish that the Citizens vote for a change on 03NOV2020. Without that, I don't think EB2I in 2009 / 2010 has any hope of forward movement. Peace.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

My 2c on this is that, there is no grand scheme to block Indians from getting GCs. I seriously doubt Miller as any time to personally interject into USCIS/DoS to skew visa allocations. What is happening is pure incompetence based on literally not having any clue as to how to process the thousands of application with many competing issues - political, covid, random bans and rescinding of bans - muslim ban, now probably china ban, consulates closing and opening, financial issues, confusing bureaucracy/inconsistency of adjudication process etc.

I mean think about it, we are probably all majority engineers in this forum. How long will it take to get a good list of anyone who has ever applied in EB and is pending and rank them by order of priority date, country of birth, filing status (EB2/3, or both) using basi charts/pivot tables? I mean some of us probably deal with datasets that are 10x or 20x that size in our daily jobs and are able to use Excel, SQL, Oracle or any number of tools that are widely available. And they still can't provide us with a pending inventory of I-485s.

So that's where we are now. The greatest country in the world can't do this basic thing with all it's technological prowess - can't provide guaranteed income to it's citizens in the middle of a massive pandemic, can't provide guaranteed healthcare to its citizens, can't formulate a unified and coherent response against the health emergency to guide it's people and thinks it's ok to adopt gestapo style tactics to beat up it's own citizens.

This too shall pass.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/minority/with-a-projected-uscis-surplus-leahy-and-tester-call-on-the-agency-to-postpone-its-planned-furloughs

Hopefully the pressure builds up on USCIS to do it's damn job.

[eb2visa]

One mystery I don't understand is how the China dated moved when India eb2 didn't moved a single day? Is it means they are using any small spill over to China???

[longwaitgigu]

I am new to all this calculation and predictions.
My spouse is very optimistic we will be currnet- oct 2010 in eb3 atleast for DOF in 3 or 4 months.
Which I dont believe after looking at bulletin and predictions. I hope I am wrong.
Its mystery - if uscis is saying there are processing delays and not enough staff.
Why eb1 india dates r moved almost 8 months and eb2, eb3 China r moved too.
R they really trying to screw eb2 and eb3 india( by manipulating eb2 to downgrade)
Why r we not getting exact information or numbers ( if they manipulate wouldn't CO have to answer in court if sued). It is federal immigration crime to severely punish one country when the law is to give SO to the most backlogged country.
I am 100% at this, if dates for eb2 and eb3 ( DOF) atleast dont touch 2010 end, there is conspiracy behind this which can only be proven if sued.

[EB2IndSep09]

One mystery I don't understand is how the China dated moved when India eb2 didn't moved a single day? Is it means they are using any small spill over to China???

It is simple demand and supply rule. There is heavy demand in EB2I (At least a fake one created due to the incompetence of the firms or the unknown grey area due to the porting of EB3 to EB2).
This has been well utilized to s***w EB2I. I was hoping to file AOS at least this year. Seems the odds are against my PD.

[smuggymba]

My 2c on this is that, there is no grand scheme to block Indians from getting GCs.

There's no grand scheme; it's a well established and well oiled ongoing process.

[qesehmk]

There's no grand scheme; it's a well established and well oiled ongoing process.

Precisely. And that is why it is called "Systemic Bias". It means there is no one single person orchestrating this bias. Rather multiple actors at multiple levels who execute such bias and/or vested in such bias.

[redtogreen]

My 2c on this is that, there is no grand scheme to block Indians from getting GCs. I seriously doubt Miller as any time to personally interject into USCIS/DoS to skew visa allocations. What is happening is pure incompetence based on literally not having any clue as to how to process the thousands of application with many competing issues - political, covid, random bans and rescinding of bans - muslim ban, now probably china ban, consulates closing and opening, financial issues, confusing bureaucracy/inconsistency of adjudication process etc.

I mean think about it, we are probably all majority engineers in this forum. How long will it take to get a good list of anyone who has ever applied in EB and is pending and rank them by order of priority date, country of birth, filing status (EB2/3, or both) using basi charts/pivot tables? I mean some of us probably deal with datasets that are 10x or 20x that size in our daily jobs and are able to use Excel, SQL, Oracle or any number of tools that are widely available. And they still can't provide us with a pending inventory of I-485s.

So that's where we are now. The greatest country in the world can't do this basic thing with all it's technological prowess - can't provide guaranteed income to it's citizens in the middle of a massive pandemic, can't provide guaranteed healthcare to its citizens, can't formulate a unified and coherent response against the health emergency to guide it's people and thinks it's ok to adopt gestapo style tactics to beat up it's own citizens.

This too shall pass.

True that! There may not be a full blown conspiracy against EB2I but there definitely is a stepmotherly treatment. CO does not have good news for EB2I in any of his check-in calls, ppl who are current are facing the slowest processing times, the expected SO FY20 did not happen. Something is systematically wrong somewhere. Yes, we can also attribute it to fallacies like furloughs etc., and other in-built issues like porting,eb1c. However it looks like we are stuck in a forever limbo.

[Immigo]

True that! There may not be a full blown conspiracy against EB2I but there definitely is a stepmotherly treatment. CO does not have good news for EB2I in any of his check-in calls, ppl who are current are facing the slowest processing times, the expected SO FY20 did not happen. Something is systematically wrong somewhere. Yes, we can also attribute it to fallacies like furloughs etc., and other in-built issues like porting,eb1c. However it looks like we are stuck in a forever limbo.

Is it possible to sue DOS for discrimination against EB2-I, given they did not move dates even though 25k visas will be wasted ? Same reason was used to make dates current in 2007.

[rabp77]

Is it possible to sue DOS for discrimination against EB2-I, given they did not move dates even though 25k visas will be wasted ? Same reason was used to make dates current in 2007.

I personally don't think that helps. Better option may be to write to your state senator and house rep informing them about this wastage at a time the are asking for money and people have followed all rules and laws and are still stuck in decade long back logs.

[rabp77]

If there is no RFE so far and your date is going to be current next month, then I would think your case ready to grant a visa (i.e. GC). Good luck!

Thank you Q. You are a wealth of information.

[jimmys]

https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/news/minority/with-a-projected-uscis-surplus-leahy-and-tester-call-on-the-agency-to-postpone-its-planned-furloughs

Hopefully the pressure builds up on USCIS to do it's damn job.

This is definitely a welcome news for me since I'm current in Aug.

[rabp77]

This is definitely a welcome news for me since I'm current in Aug.

Congratulations Jimmys. great to hear that. Its good news not just for you, but for everyone.

[gcpursuit]

I have been current in July (EB2I) and didnt receive any RFE so far ( TSC) - my medicals are not valid anymore. I filed 485J in early April and it is still pending. Should I just wait till 485J gets approved?

My lawyer says we can't do anything like creating a SR. Should I reach out to Senator or Congressman to get some traction or just wait. If I have to wait, how long should I wait before involving the congressman/senator? Any thoughts? Appreciate it.

[Crypto]

Don't stress out. It's around the corner. Don't open a case if they say so. Just contact your senator or congressman.

I guess this explain the reason why not many people who became current in last couple of bulletin may have not heard any thing regarding there card process:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-the-trump-administration-is-turning-legal-immigrants-into-undocumented-ones/2020/07/09/15c1cbf6-c203-11ea-9fdd-b7ac6b051dc8_story.html

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/22/politics/backlog-green-cards-immigration/index.html

[longwaitgigu]

https://www.forbes.com/v/s/www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/07/21/trump-cuts-legal-immigrants-by-half-and-hes-not-done-yet/amp/?amp_js_v=0.1&usqp=mq331AQIKAGwASDYAQE%3D

[longwaitgigu]

This is wrong link

[alpha0]

If i recall, AC21 was passed in 2000 (last year of Clinton) alongwith h1b increase from 65k to 195k for some time.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If i recall, AC21 was passed in 2000 (last year of Clinton) alongwith h1b increase from 65k to 195k for some time.

Yes, you are right on! AC21 was passed in 2000, apologies for the oversight.

[idliman]

Changing up the topic from doom & gloom; There are some bright spots.



Many of the corporate offices have closed and become fully remote. In that setting how can one post "Notice of Filing" for PERM? As it is a legal requirement, It may not be possible to do PERM till the offices are opened. The Covid situation should bring down the ROW demand and some positive impact might be seen in 2021 itself. Are your companies doing PERM now or has it completely stopped?

If the second stimulus has house wording (Re. Meng) on carrying over spillover, then we may still have 25K additional visa's next year.

Expectation is that Trump's new EO will throw EB-I some breadcrumbs.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Changing up the topic from doom & gloom; There are some bright spots.



Many of the corporate offices have closed and become fully remote. In that setting how can one post "Notice of Filing" for PERM? As it is a legal requirement, It may not be possible to do PERM till the offices are opened. The Covid situation should bring down the ROW demand and some positive impact might be seen in 2021 itself. Are your companies doing PERM now or has it completely stopped?

If the second stimulus has house wording (Re. Meng) on carrying over spillover, then we may still have 25K additional visa's next year.

Expectation is that Trump's new EO will throw EB-I some breadcrumbs.


Siskind had just posted regarding this: Brandt Carter Atlanta DOL - Posting notice for PERM - If a business is all remote because of COVID, it's okay to post notice on exterior door.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I am also interested in understanding the effect of the worsening US-China relations on EB5. They have traditionally been the largest consumers and are coming under increasing scrutiny.

Here is one article: https://www.bloombergquint.com/politics/republicans-question-giving-chinese-investors-eb-5-green-cards

[longwaitgigu]

Wouldn't the demand of eb2 and eb3 china CP go down for next year?

[srimurthy]

Siskind had just posted regarding this: Brandt Carter Atlanta DOL - Posting notice for PERM - If a business is all remote because of COVID, it's okay to post notice on exterior door.

Even for H1 we were requested by the employer to post the LCA on the exterior door for 10days in May itself. So it may just be a continuation.

[texas_]

https://fcw.com/articles/2020/07/21/russell-uscis-furloughs-senate.aspx?m=1

Furloughs!! not quite yet
Let's see!

[srisri]

Coming back to the guesstimate game, since US consulate is closed in China do you think there could be a significant movement in FAD for EB2-I? Do you think EB1-I will be cleared for spillover to come to EB2-I?

[usvisas]

looks like furloughs postponed

https://www.wcax.com/2020/07/24/leahy-uscis-furloughs-postponed/

[alpha0]

looks like furloughs postponed

https://www.wcax.com/2020/07/24/leahy-uscis-furloughs-postponed/

If the agency is lying to its own employees about its financial situation, what all they must be lying about?

[qesehmk]

If the agency is lying to its own employees about its financial situation, what all they must be lying about?
Leahy did great. It is not a surprise he is a democrat. USCIS needs a complete overhaul of how they work. The buggers are still passing paper around and sucking the blood out of immigrants by charging sky high prices.

[texas_]

If the agency is lying to its own employees about its financial situation, what all they must be lying about?

I knew this coming. hahahah very funny that the blood sucking USCIS management being shown the correct funds not the deficit.

Leahy pivoting the deficits to surplus what a comedy of lying by USCIS to it's own people

[calking1975]

I knew this coming. hahahah very funny that the blood sucking USCIS management being shown the correct funds not the deficit.

Leahy pivoting the deficits to surplus what a comedy of lying by USCIS to it's own people

They can't show a simple number, how many people with pending I-485 on quarterly basis, we can understand, how clue less this organization is.
There are countless such things with their process, no transparency.

[vsivarama]

The articles report "new revenue estimates that show the agency ending the fiscal year in a surplus". Still the furlough was only postponed by a month. Am I missing something here? or is it one of those conniving schemes being hatched by USCIS?

[jimmys]

If the agency is lying to its own employees about its financial situation, what all they must be lying about?

If my understanding is right, USCIS didn't say they are going to furlough all 13,000 employees on Aug 3,2020. They said, they will start furloughing 13,000 employees starting from Aug 3,2020.With Senate intervention, most likely FY 2020 will escape unscathed. The problem was not solved yet and likely in FY 2021 USCIS will face issues. The start of the FY2021 is barely 2 months away.

While it's good news for FY2020, the problem will only become bigger with perceived FB SO for FY2021. Hope they find a way to resolve this issue sooner or later.

[march1612]

I have my Employment based EB2-I I-485 pending with USCIS and I am currently on Parole status and have I94 validity until June 2021.

Questions:
1.How can i extend my Parole I-94 beyond June 2021 within US without traveling outside the country?
2.Where should I apply for Parole I-94 extension and How?
2.How soon i should i apply for Parole I-94 extension?

[texas_]

If my understanding is right, USCIS didn't say they are going to furlough all 13,000 employees on Aug 3,2020. They said, they will start furloughing 13,000 employees starting from Aug 3,2020.With Senate intervention, most likely FY 2020 will escape unscathed. The problem was not solved yet and likely in FY 2021 USCIS will face issues. The start of the FY2021 is barely 2 months away.

While it's good news for FY2020, the problem will only become bigger with perceived FB SO for FY2021. Hope they find a way to resolve this issue sooner or later.


Come FY 2021 all the bloodsuckers would be hungry for $$ to open a flood gate bit to squeeze out some hard earned money from the beneficiaries
Don't worry this circus is endless and need some kind of intervention by POTUS or Law makers eg. Leahy to pivot numbers real way not the FAKE WAY

[GCdreamz]

Guys, is there any news on FB spillover? Is there any bill which is trying to stop that? just want to confirm.

Also, if USCIS is trying to allocate SO to EB2 China, can we sue them?

[Spectator]

Someone has posted the Check In With Charlie from the AILA site on Trackitt https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/2098412167/check-in-with-charlie-oppenheim-july-21-2020/

Here's some of the more interesting parts:


Check-in with DOS s Charlie Oppenheim: July 21, 2020

General Observations

Given reduced processing capacity occasioned by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Department of State and USCIS are closely collaborating to maximize number usage for FY20, focusing on processing capacity and the applications that are capable of being finalized this fiscal year. There continues to be forward movement in all family-based preference categories and in most employment-based preference categories in August, with the exception of EB-2 India, EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras and EB-4 Mexico, which hold at their July dates (July 8, 2009, April 1, 2017 and June 15, 2018 respectively). In particular, there is rapid advancement in the EB-1 and EB-3 categories. There is insufficient time for new I-485 filings resulting from these advancements to be processed to completion before the end of the fiscal year. These movements were instead motivated by a desire to convert pre-adjudicated demand at USCIS into immigrant visa issuance prior to October 1, 2020.

Processing capacity has been dramatically diminished at consular posts, and USCIS normally processes about eighty-five percent of the Employment-based immigrant visa numbers each fiscal year. Following imposition of final action dates on EB-1 China and EB-1 India, USCIS continued to process these applications, and in many cases, even conducted interviews before the pandemic hit. Thousands of these applications can potentially be finalized following a renewed security check and/or upon receipt of a medical exam, thus enabling the employment-based annual limits to be reached or approximated as closely as possible.

If a furlough of USCIS employees occurs as planned in early August, it could have a significant negative impact on the government s efforts to maximize immigrant visa number usage for FY20.

From EB1:

AILA members may notice that EB-1 China and EB-1 India now have the same final action date. This is because they have both reached their per country limits and are now utilizing otherwise unused numbers from the EB-1 category as well as numbers that have fallen up from otherwise unused EB-5 numbers. Otherwise unused numbers are available within the EB-1 category because the rest of world demand is currently insufficient to fully utilize numbers under the Worldwide limit this fiscal year. While there is still potential for forward movement in EB-1 China and EB-1 India in September, any advance movements are unlikely to be as dramatic as in August.

From EB2:

EB-2 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico Philippines and Vietnam) remains current in August and will remain so through this fiscal year. EB-2 China advances approximately nine weeks from November 8, 2015 to January 15, 2016. In contrast, EB-2 India holds at July 8, 2009 in August. It is currently estimated that there is a sufficient amount of worldwide demand to reach or approximate the EB-2 annual limit for FY2020.

From EB3:

EB-3 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico Philippines and Vietnam) and EB-3 Worldwide Other Workers (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico Philippines and Vietnam) continue to advance rapidly at the pace of almost one year in August from April 15, 2018 to April 1, 2019. This advancement includes over three thousand EB-3 Philippines applications which are eligible to be finalized.

but you can read the full text at the above link.

[GCdreamz]

Thank you Spec.

I think we might see slight EB2I and EB3I movement in Sep Bulletin. EB2I might see 3-4months FAD movement in Oct. Not sure about EB3I.

[alpha0]

Does this mean they will use 25k spillover CO was mentioning earlier?

Last checkin, he said Eb2 wont use its full numbers, and now says there is sufficient worldwide demand. I dont consider any of these checkin predictions seriously now a days.

[redtogreen]

Does this mean they will use 25k spillover CO was mentioning earlier?

Last checkin, he said Eb2 wont use its full numbers, and now says there is sufficient worldwide demand. I dont consider any of these checkin predictions seriously now a days.

Someone on this forum recently shared an article where the Senate Appropriations Committee was making USCIS accountable for wastage of visas...and this month's check-in magically has no mention of the 25k wastage! Instead CO says there is enough worldwide demand for EB2I! I don't believe these check-in meetings anymore. There is no real value addition to predictions.Now EB2I will not move next month because there is enough ROW demand Vs maybe furlough/ processing issues. Same outcome, different reason!

[vedu]

Spec,

Thank you for your thoughtful, data driven, and most importantly pessimistic update as always!:D I am sure you had tremendous pleasure in highlighting those damned sentences! The show is over for this year. There will be very insignificant if any movement in EB India categories at all in September Visa bulletin. Let's hope for the best for the next year now! Well, we can't expect that hope from you after all. Looking forward to your another pessimistic update next month! Bring it on!! At least, it is good to know that they showed intention to use full quota for this year.

[lville]

My PD is current.

I have my interview on July 27 and was just going over recent Charlie's check in. If there is no spillover to EB2-I since EB2 ROW is taking over all spillover, does that mean there are no more GC numbers available for EB2-I ? Just trying to make sense as my PD has been current and I'll be done with interview in next 3 days.

I hope there are still numbers available and I get my GC in next 2 to 3 weeks.

[rabp77]

My PD is current.

I have my interview on July 27 and was just going over recent Charlie's check in. If there is no spillover to EB2-I since EB2 ROW is taking over all spillover, does that mean there are no more GC numbers available for EB2-I ? Just trying to make sense as my PD has been current and I'll be done with interview in next 3 days.

I hope there are still numbers available and I get my GC in next 2 to 3 weeks.


If all goes well, most likely you should be assigned a visa number at the end of you interview, and the case should move to approved status after the interview, and you should get the gc In a few weeks.

Best of luck for your interview.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thank you for your thoughtful, data driven, and most importantly pessimistic update as always!:D I am sure you had tremendous pleasure in highlighting those damned sentences! The show is over for this year. There will be very insignificant if any movement in EB India categories at all in September Visa bulletin. Let's hope for the best for the next year now! Well, we can't expect that hope from you after all. Looking forward to your another pessimistic update next month! Bring it on!! At least, it is good to know that they showed intention to use full quota for this year.

vedu,

I like your style!!!

For those not in on the joke of being the eternal pessimist, let me say I would equally have highlighted good news and been pleased to have been able to do so.

The reason I do highlight/underline passages is that, even when only posting excerpts, we seem to live in such a TLDR world, that I think it's helpful to draw attention to the salient points.

I generally don't tend to comment on information - rather I post what I believe to be interesting information and leave it to be interpreted by the reader.

I am genuinely baffled as to how the tone from CO can have changed so much in one month.

First, it's "EB will use at least 25k less than the allocation" and now he's saying EB2 will likely use its entire allocation (having previously also said EB3 will use its entire allocation). Additionally EB1 use by China and India is now using using up at least some of the EB1 total allocation.

At this point - I think I give up. We're no privy to what USCIS is telling him and that's probably at the root of any change. I can't divine what the truth is.

To put a positive spin on it - if these visas are indeed used by ROW in FY2020, then they won't have to come out of the FY2021 allocation.

Good luck everybody.

[vedu]

To put a positive spin on it - if these visas are indeed used by ROW in FY2020, then they won't have to come out of the FY2021 allocation.



Yes, that's the only positive thing I see in this update. I am cautiously optimistic about the next year for both EB2I and EB3I candidates, at least for those with priority dates before April 30th, 2010. With all the chaos that happened this year, finally we will see the demand slowing down resulting in spillover. Also, there will be some meaningful spill across from FB to EB, even if not as high as people are expecting now. The filing dates in October bulletin will be first clear indication of how the next year is going to play out. If those dates won't show material forward movements at the beginning of the next year, then unfortunately all bets will be off.

[rocketfast]

Trackitt I-485 approval data:

Oct 2018 - June 2019 - 947

Oct 2019 - June 2020 - 517

For the coronavirus months, the approvals are half of what it was the previous year. I do not see how USCIS can use up all the quota. CO has magically changed the tune that there may not be wastage. Does not make any sense. Even if USCIS lies, is there anyway for us to know?

[rabp77]

Trackitt I-485 approval data:

Oct 2018 - June 2019 - 947

Oct 2019 - June 2020 - 517

For the coronavirus months, the approvals are half of what it was the previous year. I do not see how USCIS can use up all the quota. CO has magically changed the tune that there may not be wastage. Does not make any sense. Even if USCIS lies, is there anyway for us to know?

They do publish visa issuance data periodically. So that should eventually tell us if the quota was used.

[alpha0]

Trackitt I-485 approval data:

Oct 2018 - June 2019 - 947

Oct 2019 - June 2020 - 517

For the coronavirus months, the approvals are half of what it was the previous year. I do not see how USCIS can use up all the quota. CO has magically changed the tune that there may not be wastage. Does not make any sense. Even if USCIS lies, is there anyway for us to know?

By not mentioning 25k wastage, CO released whatever pressure congress can put on them. Even if they waste visas now, by the time people know about it, it will be too late to correct it.

I laugh why he got the wisdom of using pre-adjudicated cases in last two months? He could have used that wisdom starting from June bulletin rather than waiting till Aug bulletin.

[AceMan]

By not mentioning 25k wastage, CO released whatever pressure congress can put on them. Even if they waste visas now, by the time people know about it, it will be too late to correct it.

I laugh why he got the wisdom of using pre-adjudicated cases in last two months? He could have used that wisdom starting from June bulletin rather than waiting till Aug bulletin.


Cases pre adjudicates in 2012 should be May 2010 for Eb2I and April 2010 for Eb3I. Long way away from those dates in 2020.

[Immigo]

By not mentioning 25k wastage, CO released whatever pressure congress can put on them. Even if they waste visas now, by the time people know about it, it will be too late to correct it.

I laugh why he got the wisdom of using pre-adjudicated cases in last two months? He could have used that wisdom starting from June bulletin rather than waiting till Aug bulletin.

I wonder if many of us reach out to DHS Ombudsman's office, if it will help raise the issue https://www.dhs.gov/contact-cisomb .

Case Assistance Inquiries: cisombudsman@hq.dhs.gov

For information relating to teleconferences or stakeholder engagements: CISOmbudsman.PublicAffairs@hq.dhs.gov

Total lack of transparency and accountability.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I wonder if many of us reach out to DHS Ombudsman's office, if it will help raise the issue https://www.dhs.gov/contact-cisomb .

Case Assistance Inquiries: cisombudsman@hq.dhs.gov

For information relating to teleconferences or stakeholder engagements: CISOmbudsman.PublicAffairs@hq.dhs.gov

Total lack of transparency and accountability.

If you have a grievance about your specific case associated with a case number, it may be useful. General complaints will likely be just ignored unless it's through a formal mechanism like an inquiry through a member of Congress. With this admin, even that is probably going to be ignored if they can ignore official subpoenas.

[h1bh1bh1b]

@March1612
myUnderstanding is that you don’t need to extend I94. I don’t extend mine as well. I got uscis save verification for driving license without issues.

[idliman]

I have my Employment based EB2-I I-485 pending with USCIS and I am currently on Parole status and have I94 validity until June 2021.

Questions:
1.How can i extend my Parole I-94 beyond June 2021 within US without traveling outside the country?
2.Where should I apply for Parole I-94 extension and How?
2.How soon i should i apply for Parole I-94 extension?
People can be paroled into the U.S. only for a period of up to one year. Thus, your I-94 card will only be valid for a period not to exceed one year from the date of your entry into the U.S. Note that this I-94 expiration date is not relevant for status purposes or AP document validity purposes. Unless you leave the USA and reenter, you cannot extend the validity date on I-94 for "DA" or Parolee class of admission.

Under current USCIS guidance, individuals maintaining H-1B, L-1A or L-1B status who travel outside the U.S. and reenter using valid AP documents may resume such status assuming that status remains valid. Those using an EAD for employment are not considered to be maintaining their nonimmigrant visa status and must use an AP for travel.

Hope this helps.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

From GSiskind: The State Department is now estimating there will be an additional 110,000 green cards for the employment-based categories starting in October (250K in total). It's based on a combination of factors - USCIS slowdowns, consular closures and the 4/22 visa ban.

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1287845829567447040

[Umesh1209]

Maybe for not penciling A# on the back of photo or it can be request for another set of photos. I can't imagine the mindset of the employees facing Furlough. Stephen Miller had successfully managed to get rid of whatever process chain that was remaining in USCIS.

At last got my RFE. As per USCIS - "They received my response to the RFE but they are unable to locate it". Looks like I need to redo the medical. Strange, incompetent & frustrating. Did not think that this is a possibility .....

[laksinu800]

From GSiskind: The State Department is now estimating there will be an additional 110,000 green cards for the employment-based categories starting in October (250K in total). It's based on a combination of factors - USCIS slowdowns, consular closures and the 4/22 visa ban.

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1287845829567447040




Based on this how is the forecast for eb2 I looking like

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Based on this how is the forecast for eb2 I looking like

I don't think anyone knows how many people are pending or have abandoned. There are others in the forum who have crunched numbers for some time who may be in a better position to respond. Looking at the age old July 2018 485 pending inventory, there were about 15k left over until end of Apr 2010. So worst case, you at least need that much to wipe the backlog until then. But the reality is that many EB2I until mid 2009 have already received their GC, so if we have to make a guesstimate, it's at least 10k, maybe a bit lower than that if some people have received GC through other means, abandoned etc.

[abcx13]

Even with the additional GCs, I wonder how many I-485s USCIS will realistically be able to process...

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Even with the additional GCs, I wonder how many I-485s USCIS will realistically be able to process...

With the furloughs staved off until end of Aug, you would think that with the dearth of applications, especially with them slow-playing DACA deliberately, they have a lot of capacity. But you can bet your last buck, they will come up with creative ways to slow it down as much as they can.

[getsaby]

Hi Umesh

Did you receive the Medical RFE recently? Which Service center?

[longwaitgigu]

Will not DHS appropriation bill take away the expected FB SPILLOVER
As per murthy short term appropriation bill has to be passed

[Umesh1209]

Hi Umesh

Did you receive the Medical RFE recently? Which Service center?

Yes, I received medical RFE for me and wife. We both responded in Feb. I got another RFE today. Where they mentioned that they received my RFE response but are unable to locate it.

[oraclept]

There will be no spillover imo.. stock market will collapse if not passed by Friday... so appropriations bill is already having poisonous pills... I don’t count it until next fiscal year end...

[alpha0]

From GSiskind: The State Department is now estimating there will be an additional 110,000 green cards for the employment-based categories starting in October (250K in total). It's based on a combination of factors - USCIS slowdowns, consular closures and the 4/22 visa ban.

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1287845829567447040

I was expecting the family based spillover to be more than 110k. 110k might just be from 226k family based quota.What about immediate relatives numbers which adds up and makes family based numbers about 480k. Since consulates were closed across the globe for many months and EO has blocked GC issuance for some immediate categories like parents of US citizens, spillover should be way more than 110k.

[lville]

hours 37 minutes ago
#1
Was let in 15 mins before interview. Got called in 10 mins after the time slot. Officer took an oath, went through all "Yes/No" questions from form I-485. Asked for my pay stubs, employment verification letter and almost most of interview was around my arrest record.

I was not guilty and was found not guilty by the court. I had original certified document from the court along with police report stating that no arrest record exists. But he wanted me really come out and say that I did something wrong and court just looked the other way and gave me a pass. He was very friendly describing series of steps like "Was it one of the cases where you are successful professional, and court said since this is ur first offense we will let it go but you do series of counseling sessions, or community service or something like that in nature". After he said this he quickly stopped smiling and with loud stern voice asked me " Did you or did you not do any community service, or counseling sessions requested by the court to get a not guilty plea ? Did court dismiss it as this was ur first offense? admit it?" I looked straight and said "NO" since I was really not guilty and court had found me "Not guilty".

Honestly I felt threatened and bullied by an officer. This was not the time and place for that officer to act in that way. I should have honestly asked for supervisor intervention.

Anyway he went through all the court documents and laughed and said "They really want to say you are not guilty". I also had an assessment letter from my lawyer stating 4 pages long how I was not guilty. He laughed at that and snakily said "well all your records are all expunged, they make it very clear ur not guilty".

At the end he said "your case is approved and you will receive ur benefit in 2 weeks. If I don't hear anything please call the hotline.

How do I monitor my status since online case status still says "Interview canceled and notice ordered" ?

If ur case is honest and truthful but have any court issues please, please take an attorney with you. I had phone interview with Jim Hacking and he had told me that most officers all ask you series of questions related your court case and stop and not talk much expecting you to blurt out something. My officer pulled that trick on me, and thank god I knew that from talking to Jim. I stayed calm and quiet for almost 5 mins, looked straight into the eyes of an officer and didn't say a word. Then he moved along but still kept coming back to my arrest record.

Finally I think he approved it bcuz there was nothing he could do but honestly felt like he wanted me to agree to what he wanted.

I hope he doesn't delay my approval bcuz as I was leaving I said "I don't want to touch the door knob, as it will put ur office personnel at risk. Could you please open the door ?" He did but looking back I think he may have mistaken my intentions for asking him to do that.

[Moveon]

People can be paroled into the U.S. only for a period of up to one year. Thus, your I-94 card will only be valid for a period not to exceed one year from the date of your entry into the U.S. Note that this I-94 expiration date is not relevant for status purposes or AP document validity purposes. Unless you leave the USA and reenter, you cannot extend the validity date on I-94 for "DA" or Parolee class of admission.

Under current USCIS guidance, individuals maintaining H-1B, L-1A or L-1B status who travel outside the U.S. and reenter using valid AP documents may resume such status assuming that status remains valid. Those using an EAD for employment are not considered to be maintaining their nonimmigrant visa status and must use an AP for travel.

Hope this helps.

Yes , this is right. I have been on EAD/AP for the last 8 years and the i-94 always expired a year from entry . No issues with renewals or future re-entries as they have always happened after the i-94 expiry for me . I-94 is really a no-op while on EAD/AP. It was scary when I had to send my expired i-94 the first time I was renewing my EAD/AP, but now its a routine.

[AceMan]

I was expecting the family based spillover to be more than 110k. 110k might just be from 226k family based quota.What about immediate relatives numbers which adds up and makes family based numbers about 480k. Since consulates were closed across the globe for many months and EO has blocked GC issuance for some immediate categories like parents of US citizens, spillover should be way more than 110k.

It is about half of what is available from family quota of 226 and not the 480. Spill over only accounts for 226K.

If we consider August and September 2020 the final spillover might be close to 120k.

This can realize around 35K for each Eb1, 2 and 3. Eb1 numbers for India beyond April 2018 appears limited looking at the 2019 data and it has the potential to be current by March 2021.

Eb2 Row current for this FY ensures very limited applicants beyond March 2020 in that category. Same thing with Eb3 Row.

As I said earlier December 2011 should be the expected filing date for india in 2 and 3 this October.

[gs1968]

Will not DHS appropriation bill take away the expected FB SPILLOVER
As per murthy short term appropriation bill has to be passed

I would not waste time going through hundreds of pages of the DHS appropriations Bill trying to find out if those provisions are included or not. They may be there now or may be added during the rules committee meeting or as a floor amendment.The DHS bill will be passed as part of a large minibus bill covering appropriations for 7 departments in one package. Generally floor amendments are not allowed for such packages because then the roll call votes will go on forever. This is merely the House of Representatives fulfilling its obligation of initiating spending bills for the next financial year. This will be sent to the Senate where no action is expected to happen on this. The Senate for its part has not marked up any appropriations Bill for the upcoming Fiscal year and is unlikely to do so before September 30 when the current year ends. The COVID relief Bill is going to take most of the next 2-3 weeks and the Senate will recess for at least 3 weeks if not more to give the Senators in tough races a chance to campaign hard in the home stretch. Even in the event of the Senate passing all its appropriations Bills miraculously there is no time for conference to resolve the House-Senate differences and agree/vote on a final package. This leaves the only option of a continuing resolution at the end of September. The above provisions are unlikely to be there in that CR because the current Senate/House/White House structure would still be the same and there is no way the White House will agree to a roll back of the results of its visa ban.

The length of the CR will most likely be 6 weeks to take us to the middle of November when the results/balance of power after the election will be clearer. There will be a second CR at that pont and the length of that will depend on the election results. If the balance of power remains the same then the pressure would be for an omnibus Bill that includes the favorite provisions of the WH and the above provisions may not see the light of day at all. However if the Democrats retain the House,win the Presidency and win back the Senate or fight it to a draw then there is most likely a 6 week CR to take us into the next year when the new House/Senate and President take over and the balance of power is more favorable. These reclamation provisions could be included in that CR as by then the fight will be over.

Irrespective of when/how this happens it is very clear that the Democrats are clearly signaling their intent for offering restitution to the people affected by this travel ban. I think the message is to the State department to keep this in mind while moving the availability dates. I think the initial few months will be a wait and watch mode for DOS to see how things play out as far as these provisions are concerned and if there is no movement in reclaiming these visas then to aggressively move the dates in the second half of the FY21. There is also concern that a lot of DV lottery winners were denied their right to immigrate and I expect any eventual plan to include relief for them also

On a different note IF ( and that is a big IF) the current trends hold and the Democrats assume complete control of the Senate then Sen.Leahy will move to Appropriations Chair ( which is the more coveted and prestigious post and also having already served as Judiciary committee chairman from 200802015) and Senator Durbin will assume the Chairmanship of the Judiciary committee and the Immigration subcommittee

[idliman]

The above provisions are unlikely to be there in that CR because the current Senate/House/White House structure would still be the same and there is no way the White House will agree to a roll back of the results of its visa ban.

However if the Democrats retain the House,win the Presidency and win back the Senate or fight it to a draw then there is most likely a 6 week CR to take us into the next year when the new House/Senate and President take over and the balance of power is more favorable. These reclamation provisions could be included in that CR as by then the fight will be over.

Irrespective of when/how this happens it is very clear that the Democrats are clearly signaling their intent for offering restitution to the people affected by this travel ban. I think the message is to the State department to keep this in mind while moving the availability dates. I think the initial few months will be a wait and watch mode for DOS to see how things play out as far as these provisions are concerned and if there is no movement in reclaiming these visas then to aggressively move the dates in the second half of the FY21. There is also concern that a lot of DV lottery winners were denied their right to immigrate and I expect any eventual plan to include relief for them also.

Thank you beltway guru gs1968 for such a beautifully crafted post. I look forward to hearing more of your wisdom. We will be damned if democrats win big (The spillover to EB will be stripped away). We will be damned if President DT wins reelection (EB will get spillover, but will but will not be fully used). Maybe if both win (D's the house and R's the Senate), then the status quo will remain (and we will go crazy). If DT loses then we are sure to get the 25K+ carry-over provision from year 2019 quota. That seems to be the conservative calculation for backlogged EB folks.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

[AceMan]

Thank you beltway guru gs1968 for such a beautifully crafted post. I look forward to hearing more of your wisdom. We will be damned if democrats win big (The spillover to EB will be stripped away). We will be damned if President DT wins reelection (EB will get spillover, but will but will not be fully used). Maybe if both win (D's the house and R's the Senate), then the status quo will remain (and we will go crazy). If DT loses then we are sure to get the 25K+ carry-over provision from year 2019 quota. That seems to be the conservative calculation for backlogged EB folks.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

As long a Biden does not open his mouth, it is Trump’s election to lose.

[vedu]

If DT loses then we are sure to get the 25K+ carry-over provision from year 2019 quota. That seems to be the conservative calculation for backlogged EB folks.

Didn't you read the latest update from CO? Now that he said it, there are more reasons to believe that the full EB quota will be used this year. If that happens, there will be no 25K+ carry-over for the next year. Even if we don't believe CO's words completely, the 25K+ can easily become something like 5/10K in their attempt to use visas this year. It is better to count on FB cross-over visas and pray that they don't get stolen from us.

Also, if you don't believe in CO's words, then you shouldn't also believe in 25K+ carry-over, because that 25K+ number also came from the CO in his previous update. So, don't selectively believe some of his statements, and not believe some of his other statements. Either you believe him OR don't.

[Sebiswaiting]

It is about half of what is available from family quota of 226 and not the 480. Spill over only accounts for 226K.

.
.

As I said earlier December 2011 should be the expected filing date for india in 2 and 3 this October.

I am a completely newbie, but think eb2 and 3 will be on different dates. All of you experts and knowledgeable folks would know better than me. In addition to many variables, the intent of offices and availability of data makes it almost unrealistic to get a closer prediction.
There are so many variables -
EB2 and 3 has very different pending numbers.
There are lots of folks moving from eb2 to 3 now and 3 to 2 earlier.
Spillover numbers can vary big, and we won't know for sure till Sept.
USCiS availability of personal and capacity to take X number of cases.
CO's intent and plans to move dates.
Potentially high or low demand for ROW after Dec 2020 once the ban ends IF new admin comes.
Senate balance.
President.
And many more probably..

[Spectator]

I was expecting the family based spillover to be more than 110k. 110k might just be from 226k family based quota.What about immediate relatives numbers which adds up and makes family based numbers about 480k. Since consulates were closed across the globe for many months and EO has blocked GC issuance for some immediate categories like parents of US citizens, spillover should be way more than 110k.

alpha0,

I’m a bit confused where you are going with this and why you think IR visa issuances in FY2020 would have any effect on the FY2021 EB allocation.

In simplified terms, the EB allocation for FY2021 will be:


140,000
Plus
Any unused FB visas from FY2020

Given that the FB allocation for FY2020 was 226,000 if 110,000 were unused, then FB would only have used 116,000 in FY2020.
The EB allocation for FY2021 would be 140,000 + 110,000 = 250,000

Immediate Relative visa have no maximum allocation.

In simplified terms, the FB allocation for FY2021 will be:

480,000
Minus
The number of IR visas issued in FY2020
Plus
Any unused EB visas from FY2020

With the proviso that the minimum number for the FB allocation is 226,000

Usually, the number of IR visas issued in the previous FY reduces the 480,000 to either a small positive number or a negative number. Any unused EB visas to increase that number are relatively small, so the minimum allocation of 226,000 is used for FB.

For the FY2021 calculation, it is quite possible that a much smaller number of IR approvals in FY2020 combined with a higher number of unused EB visas in FY2020 could result in FB receiving an allocation of more than 226,000 for FY2021.

Feel free to correct me, but I do not see how either IR use or the 480,000 figure benefit the EB allocation calculation for FY2021 by increasing it from the latest estimate of 110,000 unused FB visas in FY2020.

[qesehmk]

I would not waste time going through hundreds of pages of the DHS appropriations Bill trying to find out if those provisions are included or not. They may be there now or may be added during the rules committee meeting or as a floor amendment.The DHS bill will be passed as part of a large minibus bill covering appropriations for 7 departments in one package. Generally floor amendments are not allowed for such packages because then the roll call votes will go on forever. This is merely the House of Representatives fulfilling its obligation of initiating spending bills for the next financial year. This will be sent to the Senate where no action is expected to happen on this. The Senate for its part has not marked up any appropriations Bill for the upcoming Fiscal year and is unlikely to do so before September 30 when the current year ends. The COVID relief Bill is going to take most of the next 2-3 weeks and the Senate will recess for at least 3 weeks if not more to give the Senators in tough races a chance to campaign hard in the home stretch. Even in the event of the Senate passing all its appropriations Bills miraculously there is no time for conference to resolve the House-Senate differences and agree/vote on a final package. This leaves the only option of a continuing resolution at the end of September. The above provisions are unlikely to be there in that CR because the current Senate/House/White House structure would still be the same and there is no way the White House will agree to a roll back of the results of its visa ban.

The length of the CR will most likely be 6 weeks to take us to the middle of November when the results/balance of power after the election will be clearer. There will be a second CR at that pont and the length of that will depend on the election results. If the balance of power remains the same then the pressure would be for an omnibus Bill that includes the favorite provisions of the WH and the above provisions may not see the light of day at all. However if the Democrats retain the House,win the Presidency and win back the Senate or fight it to a draw then there is most likely a 6 week CR to take us into the next year when the new House/Senate and President take over and the balance of power is more favorable. These reclamation provisions could be included in that CR as by then the fight will be over.

Irrespective of when/how this happens it is very clear that the Democrats are clearly signaling their intent for offering restitution to the people affected by this travel ban. I think the message is to the State department to keep this in mind while moving the availability dates. I think the initial few months will be a wait and watch mode for DOS to see how things play out as far as these provisions are concerned and if there is no movement in reclaiming these visas then to aggressively move the dates in the second half of the FY21. There is also concern that a lot of DV lottery winners were denied their right to immigrate and I expect any eventual plan to include relief for them also

On a different note IF ( and that is a big IF) the current trends hold and the Democrats assume complete control of the Senate then Sen.Leahy will move to Appropriations Chair ( which is the more coveted and prestigious post and also having already served as Judiciary committee chairman from 200802015) and Senator Durbin will assume the Chairmanship of the Judiciary committee and the Immigration subcommittee

This is too much intelligence my friend. Totally unfair. Bow to you. My humble request - please boil it down to 3 line paragraph conclusion. If I am correct, you are saying that the chance such a bill will be passed before USCIS 2021 starts is low. And thus the spillover will happen.

What you do not say is that - once USCIS 2021 starts they will (most likely) not try to undo the spillover. Please confirm/correct me.

[idliman]

Didn't you read the latest update from CO? Now that he said it, there are more reasons to believe that the full EB quota will be used this year. If that happens, there will be no 25K+ carry-over for the next year. Even if we don't believe CO's words completely, the 25K+ can easily become something like 5/10K in their attempt to use visas this year. It is better to count on FB cross-over visas and pray that they don't get stolen from us.

Also, if you don't believe in CO's words, then you shouldn't also believe in 25K+ carry-over, because that 25K+ number also came from the CO in his previous update. So, don't selectively believe some of his statements, and not believe some of his other statements. Either you believe him OR don't.
Sorry my bad. Thanks for pointing it out. I was in denial mode on the last Check-in with CO where the 25K+ EB visas vanished into thin air. The approval trend does not account for the full usage. Somehow did not register in my brain. So we are back to "hope".

Man, I am looking for something positive here. No matter whichever way I go, you guys keep me tied to the ground.

[gs1968]

This is too much intelligence my friend. Totally unfair. Bow to you. My humble request - please boil it down to 3 line paragraph conclusion. If I am correct, you are saying that the chance such a bill will be passed before USCIS 2021 starts is low. And thus the spillover will happen.

What you do not say is that - once USCIS 2021 starts they will (most likely) not try to undo the spillover. Please confirm/correct me.

Yes-I think the spillover will happen as there is unlikely to be any legislation passed to reverse this before September 30. However the intent to recapture the lost visas for FB is there and would play a role in the DOS thinking. If there is such a legislation passed in early 2021 (second Quarter of FY 2021) then I think the DOS will adjust dates accordingly. I expect them not to front load the additional visas to the EB category as once issued they cannot be reclaimed for FB visas. If the 110000 visas are divided by 12 months there will be 9000 extra numbers per month. I hope there is at least that amount taken into consideration while issuing the visa bulletin

[longwaitgigu]

Correct me if I am wrong
Once the FY starts (2021) and if the SO happens and calculated for the entire year. Is it not illegal to take the SO from third and fourth quarter ( assuming DHS appropriation bill passes and house, senate and WH has changes).
Per my understanding if any bill passes the changes should take place start of FY ( OCT 2021)
So if Mythical SO Happens then DOS is obliged to follow the rules start from oct 2020
I can understand 25k wastage might be ( DOS never assumed EO will be extended to dec 2020)
But now they should not have a choice.

[gs1968]

Correct me if I am wrong
Once the FY starts (2021) and if the SO happens and calculated for the entire year. Is it not illegal to take the SO from third and fourth quarter ( assuming DHS appropriation bill passes and house, senate and WH has changes).
Per my understanding if any bill passes the changes should take place start of FY ( OCT 2021)
So if Mythical SO Happens then DOS is obliged to follow the rules start from oct 2020
I can understand 25k wastage might be ( DOS never assumed EO will be extended to dec 2020)
But now they should not have a choice.

My understanding is that there is no hard and fast rule about how the additional visas are allotted. Maybe Spec or Q can shed light on this. Also the annual numbers are limits/ceilings and not targets. The additional numbers a re available for use but they are not obligated to use all of them if it is not possible to process that number. The HEROES act if I remember correctly amended the INA to distribute the lost FB visa numbers between FY2021 and FY 2022. If the same language is used again then there is no choice but to slow down issuance in the second half so these numbers are available to be transferred

[alpha0]

My bad, Aceman corrected this early in the thread. FB quota is 226k and spillover is based on that and not based on what is not used form 480k.

[qesehmk]

My understanding is that there is no hard and fast rule about how the additional visas are allotted. Maybe Spec or Q can shed light on this. Also the annual numbers are limits/ceilings and not targets. The additional numbers a re available for use but they are not obligated to use all of them if it is not possible to process that number. The HEROES act if I remember correctly amended the INA to distribute the lost FB visa numbers between FY2021 and FY 2022. If the same language is used again then there is no choice but to slow down issuance in the second half so these numbers are available to be transferred

The law is quite clear. The ceilings are as per the specifications 28.6 EB1/2/3 and 7.1 EB4/5. So the entire 250K will be allocated accordingly.

[qesehmk]

Yes-I think the spillover will happen as there is unlikely to be any legislation passed to reverse this before September 30. However the intent to recapture the lost visas for FB is there and would play a role in the DOS thinking. If there is such a legislation passed in early 2021 (second Quarter of FY 2021) then I think the DOS will adjust dates accordingly. I expect them not to front load the additional visas to the EB category as once issued they cannot be reclaimed for FB visas. If the 110000 visas are divided by 12 months there will be 9000 extra numbers per month. I hope there is at least that amount taken into consideration while issuing the visa bulletin
Thanks. You say it quite eloquently that the legislation will not be passed before USCIS 2021 but the intent will remain afterwards.

And that's what makes it tricky. If the intent is there, then my guess is they will not undo spillover to EB. Rather they will allocate more under another version of S386/HR1044 .... and that's how Durbin's wish gets fulfiled. Just a guess BTW. No insider information.

[vsivarama]

The HEROES act if I remember correctly amended the INA to distribute the lost FB visa numbers between FY2021 and FY 2022. If the same language is used again then there is no choice but to slow down issuance in the second half so these numbers are available to be transferred

This is possible in theory. But practicality dictates that, post the start of a fiscal year this would be harder to achieve. I believe this could be amended to use some of the unused VISA numbers like they did a carve out for the medical experts in some other bill. That would make more practical sense then moving the numbers around after the start of the fiscal year.

[gs1968]

The law is quite clear. The ceilings are as per the specifications 28.6 EB1/2/3 and 7.1 EB4/5. So the entire 250K will be allocated accordingly.

I agree. I was referring more to the timeline as to when these would be applied. This is an annual allocation and I don't think there is a monthly/quarterly allocation formula that needs to be followed for distribution of these additional numbers. If as I mentioned an additional 9000 numbers (110000/12) are allotted monthly till the issue is resolved then adjustments can be made later if indeed such a legislation came to pass

[longwaitgigu]

I am still at the same question
If any law to pass to prevent SO, after September 2020 to oct2021 will not that be applicable to FY 2021- OCT?. We can keep aside intent, uscis slowdown, etc on side.
They have to do quarterly calculation out of 250k and cant deny allocating them as per the legislation

[gs1968]

This is possible in theory. But practicality dictates that, post the start of a fiscal year this would be harder to achieve. I believe this could be amended to use some of the unused VISA numbers like they did a carve out for the medical experts in some other bill. That would make more practical sense then moving the numbers around after the start of the fiscal year.

Yes. I agree with your point. Unfortunately the biggest bottleneck is going to be USCIS ability to carry this to completion given that they are struggling/reluctant to reach annual numbers at the current limits.It would be a shame if the lost FB visas were transferred to the EB category only to be lost to processing delays. Legislatively they could always add language that the additional visas issued be subtracted from the annual EB limit. There is considerable uncertainty yet

[gs1968]

Thanks. You say it quite eloquently that the legislation will not be passed before USCIS 2021 but the intent will remain afterwards.

And that's what makes it tricky. If the intent is there, then my guess is they will not undo spillover to EB. Rather they will allocate more under another version of S386/HR1044 .... and that's how Durbin's wish gets fulfiled. Just a guess BTW. No insider information.

I agree with all your previous posts regarding Sen.Durbin. Hopefully he shows that he is a man with a broad mind and a big heart and definitely a very short memory

[qesehmk]

I agree. I was referring more to the timeline as to when these would be applied. This is an annual allocation and I don't think there is a monthly/quarterly allocation formula that needs to be followed for distribution of these additional numbers. If as I mentioned an additional 9000 numbers (110000/12) are allotted monthly till the issue is resolved then adjustments can be made later if indeed such a legislation came to pass

Yes. Law does not specify how they should be applied over a year. In fact law is silent on any usage at all.

In practice DOS/USCIS have historically applied approx 80% in first 3 Qs and 20% in 4th Q.

Any legislation post Sept will be very very hard pressed to capture what is already allocated to EB. So if such a legislation is in the works, then my guess is DOS is going to withhold declaring availability of any FB spillover visa to EB for USCIS 2021. The moment they declare then Congress will be a difficult situation because then they are past "Do no harm" philosophy.

My money is on Congress allocating new visas (perhaps they will recapture prior unused FB visas). But they will likely let 2020 spillover benefit EB.

[gs1968]

Yes. Law does not specify how they should be applied over a year. In fact law is silent on any usage at all.

In practice DOS/USCIS have historically applied approx 80% in first 3 Qs and 20% in 4th Q.

Any legislation post Sept will be very very hard pressed to capture what is already allocated to EB. So if such a legislation is in the works, then my guess is DOS is going to withhold declaring availability of any FB spillover visa to EB for USCIS 2021. The moment they declare then Congress will be a difficult situation because then they are past "Do no harm" philosophy.

My money is on Congress allocating new visas (perhaps they will recapture prior unused FB visas). But they will likely let EB have these visas.

Thanks for the explanation. Hopefully EB will be allowed to keep at least the first quarter allocation (about 28000) before any changes are made. Visa recapture is good in theory but hard to achieve.The fate of the COVID nurse/physician bill with recapture of 40000 visas is a case in point. Hopefully the check in with CO after the September bulletin will shed more light

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

......Legislatively they could always add language that the additional visas issued be subtracted from the annual EB limit. There is considerable uncertainty yet

I just highlighted this one line, because I will bet nothing gets done legislatively unless it's something core to support Unemployment, Covid or keeping the lights on. The House bills are non-starters at the Senate and vice versa. There will be so much fighting in the next few weeks, ultimately only the bare essentials will filter through in the wee hours before Sept. 30 and any ancillary provisions will be cast aside and they will go home saying we only have 4 weeks to the election, we got stuff to do.

[gs1968]

Yes. Law does not specify how they should be applied over a year. In fact law is silent on any usage at all.

In practice DOS/USCIS have historically applied approx 80% in first 3 Qs and 20% in 4th Q.

Any legislation post Sept will be very very hard pressed to capture what is already allocated to EB. So if such a legislation is in the works, then my guess is DOS is going to withhold declaring availability of any FB spillover visa to EB for USCIS 2021. The moment they declare then Congress will be a difficult situation because then they are past "Do no harm" philosophy.

My money is on Congress allocating new visas (perhaps they will recapture prior unused FB visas). But they will likely let 2020 spillover benefit EB.

This was an amendment introduced by Rep Grace Meng (D-NY 6th district) to the DHS Bill

Rep. Meng – "The amendment allows unused FY20 diversity visas, employment visas, and family-based visas to remain available in FY21 in addition to what would otherwise be available for FY21, and allows any unused visas at the end of FY21 to remain available during FY22. The amendment was adopted by voice vote."

[gs1968]

Technically I don't think there are any unused family FB visas as these would have been applied to the EB category for the following year

[jimmys]

It is about half of what is available from family quota of 226 and not the 480. Spill over only accounts for 226K.

If we consider August and September 2020 the final spillover might be close to 120k.

This can realize around 35K for each Eb1, 2 and 3. Eb1 numbers for India beyond April 2018 appears limited looking at the 2019 data and it has the potential to be current by March 2021.

Eb2 Row current for this FY ensures very limited applicants beyond March 2020 in that category. Same thing with Eb3 Row.

As I said earlier December 2011 should be the expected filing date for india in 2 and 3 this October.

Let's assume EB receives 110K spillover from FB.

If 35K is the extra visas allocated to EB-3 in FY 2021, I don't think EB-3 India will reach Dec 2011. There are lot of categories backlogged in EB-3. So, the extra visas will be shared among those categories. And, EB-3 India (and other categories in EB-3) CP numbers will pick up speed in FY 21. Given all that, I don't see a filing date for EB-3 India beyond 2010 in FY 21.

EB-2 can be entirely different. It's mostly AOS and extra numbers to be shared only between India and China. If USCIS is willing to process all the excess numbers, it can easily reach 2011. If there's a vertical SO from EB-1, it's an added advantage. But the question is,can USCIS process those many numbers?

[jimmys]

As long a Biden does not open his mouth, it is Trump’s election to lose.

Does or doesn't?

[gs1968]

I just highlighted this one line, because I will bet nothing gets done legislatively unless it's something core to support Unemployment, Covid or keeping the lights on. The House bills are non-starters at the Senate and vice versa. There will be so much fighting in the next few weeks, ultimately only the bare essentials will filter through in the wee hours before Sept. 30 and any ancillary provisions will be cast aside and they will go home saying we only have 4 weeks to the election, we got stuff to do.

You are 100% correct. In fact I highlighted this in my long post this morning. A CR is probably the only available option now.

[qesehmk]

This was an amendment introduced by Rep Grace Meng (D-NY 6th district) to the DHS Bill

I am aware. But will be hard to pass once USCIS 2021 starts and DOS has to by existing laws make FB spillover available to EB.


Technically I don't think there are any unused family FB visas as these would have been applied to the EB category for the following year
?? Not sure I understand.

[vsivarama]

If USCIS ever has an intention of applying the spillover of 110K or whatever number that flows over to EB, they would need to start from day 1. I do not think they will wait for clarification from congress and then move dates in the later part of the year. The reason I say this is because they will not have the manpower to process all the remaining cases in the second half. Again I am assuming that USCIS does NOT intend to waste the visas available to EB. If they deviate from their principle then I guess no need for us to speculate on the movement.

[qesehmk]

This was an amendment introduced by Rep Grace Meng (D-NY 6th district) to the DHS Bill

Rep. Meng – "The amendment allows unused FY20 diversity visas, employment visas, and family-based visas to remain available in FY21 in addition to what would otherwise be available for FY21, and allows any unused visas at the end of FY21 to remain available during FY22. The amendment was adopted by voice vote."

Also not to belabour the point on fallacy of advocacy. But it is really important for everybody to understand this. Those who asked for UC on S386 could easily strike down this amendment knowing this is a good way to at least relieve EB backlogs. But they didn't nor the advocacy champions seemed to have bother to do anything about it.

It is what it is.... but it is important to recognize currents and undercurrents to have realistic expectations.

[qesehmk]

If USCIS ever has an intention of applying the spillover of 110K or whatever number that flows over to EB, they would need to start from day 1. I do not think they will wait for clarification from congress and then move dates in the later part of the year. The reason I say this is because they will not have the manpower to process all the remaining cases in the second half. Again I am assuming that USCIS does NOT intend to waste the visas available to EB. If they deviate from their principle then I guess no need for us to speculate on the movement.

The numbers are controlled by DOS. DOS has to say this on day 1. But in reality DOS generally takes a month or 6 weeks before they formally announce it every year.

[vedu]

Sorry my bad. Thanks for pointing it out. I was in denial mode on the last Check-in with CO where the 25K+ EB visas vanished into thin air. The approval trend does not account for the full usage. Somehow did not register in my brain. So we are back to "hope".

Man, I am looking for something positive here. No matter whichever way I go, you guys keep me tied to the ground.

Well, there are some reasons to be optimistic. We should be happy that the election is after the USCIS new year starts, and even better, the new administration and congress start in January! ;)

[gs1968]

I am aware. But will be hard to pass once USCIS 2021 starts and DOS has to by existing laws make FB spillover available to EB.


?? Not sure I understand.

I don't think it will be hard to pass but as others have pointed out implementation may be complicated. The existing law dictates the spillover but the same law can be amended by another law which will supersede the initial one. I still agree that based on the timing of legislation at least some of the FB visas will be available to EB. The FB categories are also heavily backlogged and that might dictate some of the urgency of the effort. As you mentioned earlier if a grand immigration Bill comes to pass under a unified Democratic government all of this will be moot

About the second question, I was merely implying that there should not be any unused FB numbers as these would have been allocated to the EB category the following year and used up. Is my reasoning incorrect?

[vsivarama]

The numbers are controlled by DOS. DOS has to say this on day 1. But in reality DOS generally takes a month or 6 weeks before they formally announce it every year.

I stand corrected. @gs1968 - As for the unused visa numbers, I was referring to the calculation made a while back which said the GC numbers recapture could alleviate some of the pain of the backlogged folks. There is a current bill proposal that draws numbers out of that bucket for healthcare workers. The same could be done for FB folks who missed out because of the ban.

[qesehmk]

I don't think it will be hard to pass but as others have pointed out implementation may be complicated. The existing law dictates the spillover but the same law can be amended by another law which will supersede the initial one. I still agree that based on the timing of legislation at least some of the FB visas will be available to EB. The FB categories are also heavily backlogged and that might dictate some of the urgency of the effort. As you mentioned earlier if a grand immigration Bill comes to pass under a unified Democratic government all of this will be moot

About the second question, I was merely implying that there should not be any unused FB numbers as these would have been allocated to the EB category the following year and used up. Is my reasoning incorrect?
On first - technically possible. But I am 90% sure they won't harm EB once DOS declares spillover. So cross the fingers and wait for DOS annoucement.

On second - isn't that what we are discussing over 100K of FB unused numbers from 2020 to be moved to EB use in 2021? I still don't understand your question.

[AceMan]

Let's assume EB receives 110K spillover from FB.

If 35K is the extra visas allocated to EB-3 in FY 2021, I don't think EB-3 India will reach Dec 2011. There are lot of categories backlogged in EB-3. So, the extra visas will be shared among those categories. And, EB-3 India (and other categories in EB-3) CP numbers will pick up speed in FY 21. Given all that, I don't see a filing date for EB-3 India beyond 2010 in FY 21.

EB-2 can be entirely different. It's mostly AOS and extra numbers to be shared only between India and China. If USCIS is willing to process all the excess numbers, it can easily reach 2011. If there's a vertical SO from EB-1, it's an added advantage. But the question is,can USCIS process those many numbers?

The applicants for Eb2/3 ROW since March 2020 till date will be an important number to determine the spillover Eb2 /3 I gets. Google has put the WFH outlook till summer of 2021, and they would have taken that decision based on some solid analytical data. What it can imply is the new candidates may not be rushing to come into US from ROW. CP numbers again will be impacted by this.

Throwing out a number Eb2I getting a good 25-30K, Eb3I about 15K should have the potential to clear 2011 in 2021.

[gs1968]

On first - technically possible. But I am 90% sure they won't harm EB once DOS declares spillover. So cross the fingers and wait for DOS annoucement.

On second - isn't that what we are discussing over 100K of FB unused numbers from 2020 to be moved to EB use in 2021? I still don't understand your question.

To Q
From your lips to God's ears!

[android09]

The applicants for Eb2/3 ROW since March 2020 till date will be an important number to determine the spillover Eb2 /3 I gets. Google has put the WFH outlook till summer of 2021, and they would have taken that decision based on some solid analytical data. What it can imply is the new candidates may not be rushing to come into US from ROW. CP numbers again will be impacted by this.

Throwing out a number Eb2I getting a good 25-30K, Eb3I about 15K should have the potential to clear 2011 in 2021.

Wow that's good news for a lot of people. 2009, 2010 and 2011 people will atleast benefit. For folks beyond 2011, CIR is the only hope.

[Spectator]

I think I have something to add to the conversation that hasn’t been discussed to date.

The law regarding how the FB and EB allocations are computed has already been discussed.

To that, we can add the law that says a maximum of 27% of the allocation can be used in each of the first 3 quarters. Buried away in the regulations is (from memory) a maximum monthly allocation of 10%.

What hasn’t been discussed is when the official determination of the annual limits is made.

CO does his best to give an estimate as early as he can in the Annual Numerical Limits document (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Annual%20%20Numerical%20%20Limits%20-%20FY2020.pdf).

This usually gets published in about November of the FY (very quick).

However, CO needs certain information from USCIS before he can make the official determination:

• the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and

• the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year.

Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits since this information is needed, by law, for the calculation.

Until CO has this information (usually received from USCIS in July of the FY), the official line is that the VO bases allocations on the minimum allocations of 226,000 for FB and 140,000 for EB.

If you look in the Visa Bulletin (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-august-2020.html), you will see this language until the official determination of the annual limits is published (usually in the September Visa Bulletin):


2. Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320.

Even now, the official determination of numerical limits for FY2020 has not been published.

If you look at the September 2019 Visa Bulletin (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-september-2019.html), you will see that is when the official determination of annual limits for FY2019 was published:


F. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 17th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2019 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2019 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 141,918

Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2019 the per-country limit is 25,754. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,358.


You can take two views as to what could happen in FY2021 if new legislation is not passed until the FY has started:

The Pessimistic View

From October 2020 there is no official determination of the numerical limits. Therefore, DOS will have to use the minimum numbers anyway.

Technically, DOS can’t allocate more than 27% of 140,000 for EB per quarter (although I think they normally do, because waiting to make figures official in July wouldn’t leave enough time to distribute any extra allocation).

If legislation is passed before July 2021, when USCIS provide DOS with the information needed to make the official determination, then the new legislation could be taken into account for FY2021.

The Optimistic View

Congress very rarely, if ever, passes legislation that is back-dated. I honestly don't see this changing.

In this case, if legislation is not passed before October 1, 2020 then the existing laws governing determination of the numerical limits for FY2021 would have to be followed.


Not that I think it’s worth anything, but my view is that if legislation that changes how the numerical allocations are calculated for FY2021 is not passed before the beginning of FY2021, then existing law will cover FY2021. In that case, the lawmakers might think about how the FB shortfall might be made up in future FY, but not to the detriment of EB.

Sorry for the long post.

[qesehmk]

my view is that if legislation that changes how the numerical allocations are calculated for FY2021 is not passed before the beginning of FY2021, then existing law will cover FY2021. In that case, the lawmakers might think about how the FB shortfall might be made up in future FY, but not to the detriment of EB.
That's precisely what I am saying. Not impossible. But improbable that congress will pass a law and backdate it.

Also thanks for correcting me on laws regarding allocation by period. I didn't know that the law was this prescriptive.

[iamdeb]

Thanks for the insight Spec! Considering the optimistic view, will there be enough spillover for EB2-I to reach year 2011 PD in coming months.

[NJMavarick]

I think I have something to add to the conversation that hasn’t been discussed to date.

The law regarding how the FB and EB allocations are computed has already been discussed.

To that, we can add the law that says a maximum of 27% of the allocation can be used in each of the first 3 quarters. Buried away in the regulations is (from memory) a maximum monthly allocation of 10%.

What hasn’t been discussed is when the official determination of the annual limits is made.

CO does his best to give an estimate as early as he can in the Annual Numerical Limits document (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Annual%20%20Numerical%20%20Limits%20-%20FY2020.pdf).

This usually gets published in about November of the FY (very quick).

However, CO needs certain information from USCIS before he can make the official determination:

• the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and

• the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year.

Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits since this information is needed, by law, for the calculation.

Until CO has this information (usually received from USCIS in July of the FY), the official line is that the VO bases allocations on the minimum allocations of 226,000 for FB and 140,000 for EB.

If you look in the Visa Bulletin (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-august-2020.html), you will see this language until the official determination of the annual limits is published (usually in the September Visa Bulletin):

Even now, the official determination of numerical limits for FY2020 has not been published.

If you look at the September 2019 Visa Bulletin (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-september-2019.html), you will see that is when the official determination of annual limits for FY2019 was published:


You can take two views as to what could happen in FY2021 if new legislation is not passed until the FY has started:

The Pessimistic View

From October 2020 there is no official determination of the numerical limits. Therefore, DOS will have to use the minimum numbers anyway.

Technically, DOS can’t allocate more than 27% of 140,000 for EB per quarter (although I think they normally do, because waiting to make figures official in July wouldn’t leave enough time to distribute any extra allocation).

If legislation is passed before July 2021, when USCIS provide DOS with the information needed to make the official determination, then the new legislation could be taken into account for FY2021.

The Optimistic View

Congress very rarely, if ever, passes legislation that is back-dated. I honestly don't see this changing.

In this case, if legislation is not passed before October 1, 2020 then the existing laws governing determination of the numerical limits for FY2021 would have to be followed.


Not that I think it’s worth anything, but my view is that if legislation that changes how the numerical allocations are calculated for FY2021 is not passed before the beginning of FY2021, then existing law will cover FY2021. In that case, the lawmakers might think about how the FB shortfall might be made up in future FY, but not to the detriment of EB.

Sorry for the long post.

As always, very informative Spec! Does it still stop CO from advancing the filing dates? I gauge that its possible that the FAD will be only advanced based on the bare minimum allocation.

[feedmyback]

I don't think it is based on USCIS' intention too to be honest. Yes, they might be inefficient and again not work properly. But the dates have to be moved and the ununsed FB GCs have to come to EB GCs in 2021. And you are right. There is no Congress intervention needed for any of this to happen. So things will start moving right away from Oct 1, 2020.

[ntn2008]

Thank you Spec for your valuable contribution to this forum. You are so informative with accurate figures of estimation, predictions for calculation. I have been following this forum, almost 10 years and this is my first post to get your valuable feedback and comments of my observation as per the below source.

https://www.prweb.com/releases/canam_shares_important_takeaways_from_the_conversa tion_with_charlie_oppenheim_webinar/prweb17198291.htm

Could you please provide your valuable thoughts of your predications of Spill Over from FB to EB category. As per the below source, CO has mentioned that it is going to 60K of additional visas (from FB SO) to EB category based on the 1st travel ban until mid of June 2020. It has been approximately 30 K / Month, based on this calculation and expected SO could be from Jun 2020 to Sep 2020, around 90 K of visas. Total SO for FY 2020 could be approximately 150K + visas. Am i missing something?.

he did estimate that the total number of employment-based visas available for FY2021 “is likely to be well in excess” of 200,000, representing a minimum net gain of 60,000 visas for all employment-based preference categories.

Please advice your valuable thoughts or am i overlooking the SO estimation. Really appreciate your reply from you or other gurus in the forum.

Thank you everyone for your valuable contribution and sharing of your estimation of this topic.

Good luck to everyone.

[gs1968]

After all that I wrote earlier today-

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/28/house-democrats-homeland-security-spending-bill-from-floor-384633

[oraclept]

here is story from trackitt. so spillover even it comes.. it doesnt move needle.
With what I have seen in 2015 and after. I dont trust USCSIS,CO or lawyers.

Below is SpillOver(SO) math of full range what EB2-India can get. This is strictly math, however in FY2021 IF Rest of World EB2 is having less utilization, then that Horizontal SpillOver/Fall across to India and that can happen generally happens in last Quarter/Q4 of Year(July-Sep) of FY2021. Refer

IF 0k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 40,040 and EB2-India will get 2,803 [+0]
IF 10k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 42,900 and EB2-India will get 3,003 [+200]
IF 20k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 45,760 and EB2-India will get 3,203 [+400]
IF 30k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 48,620 and EB2-India will get 3,403 [+600]
IF 40k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 51,480 and EB2-India will get 3,604 [+801]
IF 50k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 54,340 and EB2-India will get 3,804 [+1,001]
IF 60k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 57,200 and EB2-India will get 4,004 [+1,201]
IF 70k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 60,060 and EB2-India will get 4,204 [+1,401]
IF 80k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 62,920 and EB2-India will get 4,404 [+1,601]
IF 90k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 65,780 and EB2-India will get 4,605 [+1,802]
IF 100k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 68,640 and EB2-India will get 4,805 [+2,002]
IF 150k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 82,940 and EB2-India will get 5,806 [+3,003]
IF 200k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 97,240 and EB2-India will get 6,807 [+4,004]
IF 226k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 104,676 and EB2-India will get 7,327 [+4,524]

[creados]

Yes, however. This is just the raw allocation of visas. With EB1 ROW current and EB1 India at August 2018, there will be internally significant spillover from ROW for EB1. With EB2ROW current, again there will be significant spillover to EB2India. Similarly with EB3ROW at April 2019 and not as much demand in EB3I. I think there will be significant movement for all of the categories.

[android09]

This was an amendment introduced by Rep Grace Meng (D-NY 6th district) to the DHS Bill

Rep. Meng – "The amendment allows unused FY20 diversity visas, employment visas, and family-based visas to remain available in FY21 in addition to what would otherwise be available for FY21, and allows any unused visas at the end of FY21 to remain available during FY22. The amendment was adopted by voice vote."

This amendment is not going to see the light of day. The house pulled the homeland security funding bill(DHS) from a vote. Its going to go for Continuing Resolution funding I think.

[redtogreen]

here is story from trackitt. so spillover even it comes.. it doesnt move needle.
With what I have seen in 2015 and after. I dont trust USCSIS,CO or lawyers.

Below is SpillOver(SO) math of full range what EB2-India can get. This is strictly math, however in FY2021 IF Rest of World EB2 is having less utilization, then that Horizontal SpillOver/Fall across to India and that can happen generally happens in last Quarter/Q4 of Year(July-Sep) of FY2021. Refer

IF 0k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 40,040 and EB2-India will get 2,803 [+0]
IF 10k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 42,900 and EB2-India will get 3,003 [+200]
IF 20k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 45,760 and EB2-India will get 3,203 [+400]
IF 30k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 48,620 and EB2-India will get 3,403 [+600]
IF 40k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 51,480 and EB2-India will get 3,604 [+801]
IF 50k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 54,340 and EB2-India will get 3,804 [+1,001]
IF 60k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 57,200 and EB2-India will get 4,004 [+1,201]
IF 70k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 60,060 and EB2-India will get 4,204 [+1,401]
IF 80k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 62,920 and EB2-India will get 4,404 [+1,601]
IF 90k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 65,780 and EB2-India will get 4,605 [+1,802]
IF 100k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 68,640 and EB2-India will get 4,805 [+2,002]
IF 150k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 82,940 and EB2-India will get 5,806 [+3,003]
IF 200k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 97,240 and EB2-India will get 6,807 [+4,004]
IF 226k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 104,676 and EB2-India will get 7,327 [+4,524]

Yes, had calculated earlier.....100k spillover is just 2000+ extra visas for EB2i for a total of around 4800+. For someone with a PD in early 2010( like me), it's a wait and watch situation until last quarter of FY21, for the horizontal SO to materialize. From what we have seen in the past, horizontal SO is a hit or miss. It didn't happen in the current FY (though many of us hoped for it) due to worldwide ROW demand according to Mr.CO. So yea, folks with 2010 PDs have to be patient and hope the wait is not stretched to a few years just by missing out by a few weeks. 2009 PDs meanwhile should be okay.

[suninphx]

The applicants for Eb2/3 ROW since March 2020 till date will be an important number to determine the spillover Eb2 /3 I gets. Google has put the WFH outlook till summer of 2021, and they would have taken that decision based on some solid analytical data. What it can imply is the new candidates may not be rushing to come into US from ROW. CP numbers again will be impacted by this.

Throwing out a number Eb2I getting a good 25-30K, Eb3I about 15K should have the potential to clear 2011 in 2021.

Ace, that’s a very bold prediction for EB2-I and I hope it comes true.

Personally, I am getting ready for all kinds of BS such as .... diminished processing power, sudden high demand from ROW etc etc. You know how it goes right?

I fully expect EB visas to be given back to FB for FY2022 so that things balance out.
Not being pessimistic, just being practical from what we have seen for many many years.

[android09]

Yes, had calculated earlier.....100k spillover is just 2000+ extra visas for EB2i for a total of around 4800+. For someone with a PD in early 2010( like me), it's a wait and watch situation until last quarter of FY21, for the horizontal SO to materialize. From what we have seen in the past, horizontal SO is a hit or miss. It didn't happen in the current FY (though many of us hoped for it) due to worldwide ROW demand according to Mr.CO. So yea, folks with 2010 PDs have to be patient and hope the wait is not stretched to a few years just by missing out by a few weeks. 2009 PDs meanwhile should be okay.

That is true if EB Row is not current. If ROW is current, then all the visas fall over to the most backlogged country. So while India's allocation may be an extra 3000 Green cards, If EB2 row is current at the time of allocation, most of the 31,000 odd should flow to the most backlogged country.

[longwaitgigu]

If trump gets reelected
Chances of EO extension increases and people with PD in 2010 and may be 2011 sure to get gc

[vsivarama]

That is true if EB Row is not current. If ROW is current, then all the visas fall over to the most backlogged country. So while India's allocation may be an extra 3000 Green cards, If EB2 row is current at the time of allocation, most of the 31,000 odd should flow to the most backlogged country.

"Current" is the word that I would NOT use to gauge the spillover to EB2-EB3 categories. Let me put this in perspective. In a hypothetical case of 100k Family Based SpillOver(SO), Total EB2 will be 68,640 and EB2-India will get 4,805. So EB2 ROW (excluding India and China) would be (68640 - 4805*2) 59030. So even if ROW has a demand for 59K visas the dates would still be current. As always the spillover calculations can only be made on the numbers used by ROW. If the numbers next year are in line with this years usage for ROW then yes, what you say would likely be correct.

[karanjohar]

Spectator,

I have a few questions,

1. When you say the additional 16,500 FB visas from last year is not showing up in the USCIS bulletin, does it mean that it is not yet allocated? Which, ergo, would mean there could be some extra visas for next month (howsoever small it could be)
2. Why wasn't the EB quota adjusted to account for the lack of FB demand this FY? If the FB quota was underallocated by 110K, then technically, this should come out to be 7% of this number or 7,700 visas for EB2 (combined). If EB2ROW is current and interviews are not happening then I can't fathom how additional ROW demand came about from thin air to consume these visas.
3. Similar to point 2 when is the EB quota re-adjusted to include the reduced FB numbers? This assumes that the president's EO continues unchallenged and no FB visas are allocated for Q1 FY 2021

I had expected much more movement for EB2I. Last four months movement has only been 44 days and corresponds to a net 800 additional visas. This number is ridiculously low given the situation we are in and the math just doesn't add up. On the other hand, I see rapid movement for EB1I and a barrage of approvals in Trackitt. I get your point about logistics and how the pandemic has affected the process. However, doesn't it be applicable to everyone, not just EB2 India?

I do not want to attribute this to conspiracy theories, but there is something fishy going on. Either the administration has given mandate to the agencies to harm EB India or there is some sort of a collusion between the agencies and immigration lawyers. Again, I do not want to believe this, but I don't see a logical explanation.

[AceMan]

Ace, that’s a very bold prediction for EB2-I and I hope it comes true.

Personally, I am getting ready for all kinds of BS such as .... diminished processing power, sudden high demand from ROW etc etc. You know how it goes right?

I fully expect EB visas to be given back to FB for FY2022 so that things balance out.
Not being pessimistic, just being practical from what we have seen for many many years.

It is just a common sense observation based on pre adjudicated cases. This is Eb2/3 predictions, but Eb1 India has to be considered here because the vertical spillover is dependent on it. If all the applicants of Wb1 till Feb 18 are greened within this FY, the demand beyond March 18 should be very limited for India there.

Remember the consulates are closed for 1st quarter of 2021 which can and should help Eb2 I next FY. I know the cynical effect over the last decade for Eb2 applicants make them suspicious, but this is happening for 2021.

[srimurthy]

It is just a common sense observation based on pre adjudicated cases. This is Eb2/3 predictions, but Eb1 India has to be considered here because the vertical spillover is dependent on it. If all the applicants of Wb1 till Feb 18 are greened within this FY, the demand beyond March 18 should be very limited for India there.

Remember the consulates are closed for 1st quarter of 2021 which can and should help Eb2 I next FY. I know the cynical effect over the last decade for Eb2 applicants make them suspicious, but this is happening for 2021.

For the Vertical Spillover from EB1, you are considering the number being available because of consulates being closed.
But I guess a lot of filings in EB1 I are AOS as they are on H1 and L1 and are already here. So I doubt there will be much vertical spill over. It can be that the dates in EB1 need to move beyond 2018 to generate further demand in that category.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

For the Vertical Spillover from EB1, you are considering the number being available because of consulates being closed.
But I guess a lot of filings in EB1 I are AOS as they are on H1 and L1 and are already here. So I doubt there will be much vertical spill over. It can be that the dates in EB1 need to move beyond 2018 to generate further demand in that category.

And that's exactly what they will end up doing, I think. Keep moving EB1 and more EB1Cs will keep applying and hang out EB2s to dry.