EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[skpanda]

All.. quick question

An acquaintance of mine is in F2B-ROW (Kids of Green Card Holders over 21 years). Their Filing date is current. They are outside the country. What are the next steps? They contact NVC/Consulate or will they contact this person?

Important Note: I130 is still pending and not approved.

Thanks!

[idliman]

I guess USCIS had started preparations, assuming that there will not be additional congressional funding. Federal employees need to be given a 30 day notice. However, if they actually do the furlough, it will definitely bring approvals to a crawl. What's going to happen to people waiting for their interviews to be scheduled?

https://www.govexec.com/workforce/2020/06/dhs-begin-sending-furlough-notices-15000-employees-next-week/166096/

The furlough notices are expected throughout the ranks of USCIS, the employees with knowledge of the process said. Management officials have been instructed to determine which employees are necessary to continue functioning at 25% capacity. Management has estimated it will run out of funds to operate normally on July 20, and will begin notifying employees 30 days prior to that date as required by law. The furloughs are not expected to all begin on that date.

USCIS employees, their union and other stakeholders have been pushing Congress to address the funding situation. Knowles warned if the furloughs go into effect, the delays and backlog at USCIS “will balloon.” The number of new asylum cases has more than doubled over the last five years and the current backlog is at all-time highs.

Knowles also cautioned the “lasting effect” of the budget crisis could be felt through a workforce with declining morale and, eventually, a brain drain.

“We may lose thousands of employees who say, ‘I can’t afford to be furloughed’ ” and find new work, he said.

Hopefully CO will make a drastic movement of PDs so that pre adjudicated applications can be approved with minimal staff. Just wishful thinking on my part.

[Ind2009]

Finally after 14 years, me and my family just received the text / email update - New Card being Produced.
Thank you to everyone in this group who has been part of this crazy journey with the calculations and other practical inputs.
I know the everyday life will continue to remain the same but the thought that I don't have to go for H1B stamping any longer is a huge one for me personally.
No one might be able to appreciate it better than me who has gone 6 times for H1B stamping :)
Good luck to all who are still waiting.
Don't give up hope. Trust me. Your time will come for sure.
God Bless

[Zenzone]

Finally after 14 years, me and my family just received the text / email update - New Card being Produced.
Thank you to everyone in this group who has been part of this crazy journey with the calculations and other practical inputs.
I know the everyday life will continue to remain the same but the thought that I don't have to go for H1B stamping any longer is a huge one for me personally.
No one might be able to appreciate it better than me who has gone 6 times for H1B stamping :)
Good luck to all who are still waiting.
Don't give up hope. Trust me. Your time will come for sure.
God Bless

Hearty Congratulations!!

[mrperfect]

Finally after 14 years, me and my family just received the text / email update - New Card being Produced.
Thank you to everyone in this group who has been part of this crazy journey with the calculations and other practical inputs.
I know the everyday life will continue to remain the same but the thought that I don't have to go for H1B stamping any longer is a huge one for me personally.
No one might be able to appreciate it better than me who has gone 6 times for H1B stamping :)
Good luck to all who are still waiting.
Don't give up hope. Trust me. Your time will come for sure.
God Bless

Congratulations to you and your family.. Can you tell us what is your category and PD

[Ind2009]

Congratulations to you and your family.. Can you tell us what is your category and PD

EB-3 India.
PD : Mar 3 2009.
RD : Dec 12 2018
Interview : Oct 2019
Approved : Jun 12 2020.

[android09]

EB-3 India.
PD : Mar 3 2009.
RD : Dec 12 2018
Interview : Oct 2019
Approved : Jun 12 2020.

Pardon my ignorance, but what does RD mean ? Also, USCIS sends you email and text message when the Green card is in production ? When do you provide them that information? In I-485 ? I ask because of my ignorance. Only I-140 approved here.

[Ind2009]

Pardon my ignorance, but what does RD mean ? Also, USCIS sends you email and text message when the Green card is in production ? When do you provide them that information? In I-485 ? I ask because of my ignorance. Only I-140 approved here.

RD is the Receipt Date on when USCIS received your I-485 application.

Email and text notifications can be requested with any forms that you file with USCIS by filling in form G-1145.
And for anyone who missed filing form G-1145, you can always go to https://egov.uscis.gov/ and create an account for yourself and add the receipt numbers for your cases pending with USCIS and then add email / text notifications for each case. I did the same as I was not aware of G-1145. Today I got both email and text message that case is approved. It will take approx a week for all the process to complete and get the cards in hand.

Also FYI, I have been a silent follower of this forum for about a decade, a major portion of which I had little hope about my PD getting current. But the information and thoughtful insightful discussions and calculations by all the folks here kept me sane until I started seeing some light in 2018 and started posting here.

Please feel free to ask anything related to immigration. There are many here who are always ready to help.
Good Luck

[imdeng]

Congratulations Ind2009! Enjoy the peace of mind.


Finally after 14 years, me and my family just received the text / email update - New Card being Produced.
Thank you to everyone in this group who has been part of this crazy journey with the calculations and other practical inputs.
I know the everyday life will continue to remain the same but the thought that I don't have to go for H1B stamping any longer is a huge one for me personally.
No one might be able to appreciate it better than me who has gone 6 times for H1B stamping :)
Good luck to all who are still waiting.
Don't give up hope. Trust me. Your time will come for sure.
God Bless

[paramjit74]

EB-3 India.
PD : Mar 3 2009.
RD : Dec 12 2018
Interview : Oct 2019
Approved : Jun 12 2020.

Congrats Ind2009.

Also the fact that you just got approval yesterday lead me to believe that these report about GC processing being suspended are not true -

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/06/12/administration-puts-hold-on-green-card-requests-from-us/

[prabakarb]

RD is the Receipt Date on when USCIS received your I-485 application.

Email and text notifications can be requested with any forms that you file with USCIS by filling in form G-1145.
And for anyone who missed filing form G-1145, you can always go to https://egov.uscis.gov/ and create an account for yourself and add the receipt numbers for your cases pending with USCIS and then add email / text notifications for each case. I did the same as I was not aware of G-1145. Today I got both email and text message that case is approved. It will take approx a week for all the process to complete and get the cards in hand.

Also FYI, I have been a silent follower of this forum for about a decade, a major portion of which I had little hope about my PD getting current. But the information and thoughtful insightful discussions and calculations by all the folks here kept me sane until I started seeing some light in 2018 and started posting here.

Please feel free to ask anything related to immigration. There are many here who are always ready to help.
Good Luck

Hello, Congrats on your GC. I was wondering about your interview and what are the questions they asked you? Would you mind sharing please? Thanks in advance.

[Ind2009]

Hello, Congrats on your GC. I was wondering about your interview and what are the questions they asked you? Would you mind sharing please? Thanks in advance.

All questions were based on the information provided in the I-485 application and it is done after we take a oath at the beginning of the interview.
Since the application has all the information about us and our history, the officer picked up sections about employment and places we had stayed and a few related questions about family.
But the major portion of the interview were verbatim from Part 8 of the application (General Eligibility and Ineligibility grounds). The officer check marked each question with a pen as we answered them in sequence. This was a little time consuming as he went through each question but was easy as the answer is just - yes / no. So overall it was a very straightforward interview.
Not sure how they are going to decide on future interviews with the new Covid situation and I see some cases are getting approved even without interview.
But even if you happen to go to one, just relax. It will be good break and a day off from your routine work :) Good luck.

[prabakarb]

All questions were based on the information provided in the I-485 application and it is done after we take a oath at the beginning of the interview.
Since the application has all the information about us and our history, the officer picked up sections about employment and places we had stayed and a few related questions about family.
But the major portion of the interview were verbatim from Part 8 of the application (General Eligibility and Ineligibility grounds). The officer check marked each question with a pen as we answered them in sequence. This was a little time consuming as he went through each question but was easy as the answer is just - yes / no. So overall it was a very straightforward interview.
Not sure how they are going to decide on future interviews with the new Covid situation and I see some cases are getting approved even without interview.
But even if you happen to go to one, just relax. It will be good break and a day off from your routine work :) Good luck.

Great, Thank you so much. Appreciate your detailed response. That helps.

[mar2010er]

hi guys, looking at the news item below, does it mean that they have temporarily suspended issued new green cards? If so, does it mean, spillover calcs will no longer be applied this year and hurt backlogs even more?
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/06/12/administration-puts-hold-on-green-card-requests-from-us/

[Blue_fairy]

hi guys, looking at the news item below, does it mean that they have temporarily suspended issued new green cards? If so, does it mean, spillover calcs will no longer be applied this year and hurt backlogs even more?
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/06/12/administration-puts-hold-on-green-card-requests-from-us/

Talk about being fucked from all directions...

[Zenzone]

Talk about being fucked from all directions...

The same article toward the end has this quote from USCIS clarifying. Highlighting it to restore balance of the commentary -

The USCIS acknowledged it posted that material on “an internal webpage used by headquarters staff to maintain records of guidance“ but said it contained “incorrect information“ and has since been taken down.

“The dates in the post and the reference to the executive order were incorrect,” the agency said. “This post has been removed and does not reflect current adjudication guidance.”

[Zenzone]

hi guys, looking at the news item below, does it mean that they have temporarily suspended issued new green cards? If so, does it mean, spillover calcs will no longer be applied this year and hurt backlogs even more?
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/06/12/administration-puts-hold-on-green-card-requests-from-us/

I don't agree with it. Anyways, we will know if (when) dates move in subsequent bulletins.

[qesehmk]

A USCIS employee who processes applications for U.S. residency said the majority of agency staff has been teleworking and available to work on matters other than naturalization.

“For an agency in fiscal crisis, I have been assigned a shockingly low amount of applications that we can collect fees from,” said the USCIS employee, who did not want to be identified for fear of retribution.


This pretty much sums up the intention of the administration. It's just truly sad.

[Zenzone]

This pretty much sums up the intention of the administration. It's just truly sad.

That also reinforces CO's prior commentary that visas will be wasted this year!

[qesehmk]

That also reinforces CO's prior commentary that visas will be wasted this year!
I think CO's commentary was more of a fear he spoke about. That fear turns out was realistic. It also makes sense ... in an election year, they will do all they can to galvanize their base.

[vsivarama]

I think CO's commentary was more of a fear he spoke about. That fear turns out was realistic. It also makes sense ... in an election year, they will do all they can to galvanize their base.

The question is how much legal authority do they have to do this? The lawyers who protested the FB ban were told by the judge that i) Executive branch can take actions to limit who is entering the country if it poses a public safety risk. and ii) Since this was impacting people not yet in US, he could not hear the case. Going by the above two points not sure how much legal authority the executive branch has on this. It surely is a tactic to slow down the processing, but seems like overreach by executive branch.

[qesehmk]

The question is how much legal authority do they have to do this? The lawyers who protested the FB ban were told by the judge that i) Executive branch can take actions to limit who is entering the country if it poses a public safety risk. and ii) Since this was impacting people not yet in US, he could not hear the case. Going by the above two points not sure how much legal authority the executive branch has on this. It surely is a tactic to slow down the processing, but seems like a legal overreach.

Unfortunately the law as written doesn't specify lower limit on immigration. So the executive branch can allocate ZERO visas and won't violate any law.

[Zenzone]

The question is how much legal authority do they have to do this? The lawyers who protested the FB ban were told by the judge that i) Executive branch can take actions to limit who is entering the country if it poses a public safety risk. and ii) Since this was impacting people not yet in US, he could not hear the case. Going by the above two points not sure how much legal authority the executive branch has on this. It surely is a tactic to slow down the processing, but seems like overreach by executive branch.

Its not that there is ZERO GC getting issued. I have my own friends and colleagues who have gotten recently.

[Zenzone]

Unfortunately the law as written doesn't specify lower limit on immigration. So the executive branch can allocate ZERO visas and won't violate any law.

It is legally challengeable if its unreasonable.

[qesehmk]

It is legally challengeable if its unreasonable.
It's legally challenge able ONLY if there is a legal basis for the challenge. Being unreasonable does not constitute legal basis. Not to say there may not be a basis. If somebody knows better please share.

[Zenzone]

It's legally challenge able ONLY if there is a legal basis for the challenge. Being unreasonable does not constitute legal basis. Not to say there may not be a basis. If somebody knows better please share.

Alright sir. So you say. I park it here.

[qesehmk]

Alright sir. So you say. I park it here.I am not a lawyer. So take it with a pinch of salt. I am saying I do not know what legal basis there may be to challenge this.

[rocketfast]

Tanvi.m, who is the author of the article tweeted that the following cases will continue to be looked at:

1) case already distributed to adjudicator
2) continuations
3) case related to medical provider
4) National Benefits Center work on adjustment
5) very old cases
6) Liberian Refugee Immigration Fairness (LRIF) I-485s
7) identified national security concerns
8) Fraud Detection and National Security Directorate cases
9) ELIS beta cases
10) age outs
11) DV cases
12) mandamus and other litigation cases
13) detailed immigrants
14) military families

For EB2-I backlogged candidates, do they belong to 4? If so, the dates may move next bulletin. In trackitt, I also saw a message about interviews getting scheduled again for a very few people. So this could go either way - a lot of wasted visas or a small windfall for EB-Is.

[excalibur123]

Its not that there is ZERO GC getting issued. I have my own friends and colleagues who have gotten recently.

I agree on this.

How many of those got the approval after their PD becoming current in June bulletin?

We have at least one case in this forum who intimated that he received approval on 06/12.

[Ind2009]

I agree on this.

How many of those got the approval after their PD becoming current in June bulletin?

We have at least one case in this forum who intimated that he received approval on 06/12.

I might be the one you are referring to. My PD became current in June 2020 and I got my approval email/text on 6/12 and this afternoon 6/15, I received the 485 approval notice in USPS mail. They have not yet mailed the card. So hopefully that should be done in the next couple of days.
Also note, I never created any SR nor approached any senator / congressman nor called USCIS service center, nor jumped lines between EB-2, EB-3 to expedite my case during my entire journey.
So please don't go by the rumours. Unless there is something coming out as a rule or a law or another EO, cases will continue to be processed.
Have faith. Good luck.

[abcx13]

According to Siskind, the USCIS memo was incorrectly / mistakenly filed and was quickly reversed / taken down / not implemented.

[excalibur123]

I might be the one you are referring to. My PD became current in June 2020 and I got my approval email/text on 6/12 and this afternoon 6/15, I received the 485 approval notice in USPS mail. They have not yet mailed the card. So hopefully that should be done in the next couple of days.
Also note, I never created any SR nor approached any senator / congressman nor called USCIS service center, nor jumped lines between EB-2, EB-3 to expedite my case during my entire journey.
So please don't go by the rumours. Unless there is something coming out as a rule or a law or another EO, cases will continue to be processed.
Have faith. Good luck.
Thanks for replying. We are just assessing the situation. I wasn’t implying anything in my post about your case buddy. Didn’t state your id because - well now you should be relaxing on a beach, and shouldn’t be dragged here.

[Ind2009]

Thanks for replying. We are just assessing the situation. I wasn’t implying anything in my post about your case buddy. Didn’t state your id because - well now you should be relaxing on a beach, and shouldn’t be dragged here.

Thank you, but no plans for any beach trips or any travel in the immediate future. :)
For me, honestly the only thing that a GC would do is the remove the tensions of H1B stamping and extensions. I had mentioned earlier about going 6 times for H1B stampings but I did not mention the last extension which was filed in end of 2017 well before I was eligible to file my 485 and my extension was approved on the 240th day after my I-94 expiry. Those are the absolute tension filled days when there were rejections all over. I pray the situation gets better for our friends who are still in line.
I would definitely like to see a rule similar to H-4 EAD where all folks who have the i-140 approved get an EAD instead of going through H1B torture. Then there should not be so much worry even if the GC takes its time.

[qesehmk]

Tanvi.m, who is the author of the article tweeted that the following cases will continue to be looked at:

1) case already distributed to adjudicator
2) continuations
3) case related to medical provider
4) National Benefits Center work on adjustment
5) very old cases
6) Liberian Refugee Immigration Fairness (LRIF) I-485s
7) identified national security concerns
8) Fraud Detection and National Security Directorate cases
9) ELIS beta cases
10) age outs
11) DV cases
12) mandamus and other litigation cases
13) detailed immigrants
14) military families

For EB2-I backlogged candidates, do they belong to 4? If so, the dates may move next bulletin. In trackitt, I also saw a message about interviews getting scheduled again for a very few people. So this could go either way - a lot of wasted visas or a small windfall for EB-Is.

#5 sounds good for EB-I backlog. If so - then I don't see how visas can go waste.

[excalibur123]

#5 sounds good for EB-I backlog. If so - then I don't see how visas can go waste.

How is any of things about ‘old cases’ or ‘pre-adjudicated cases’ realistic in absence of actual VB movement?

[qesehmk]

How is any of things about ‘old cases’ or ‘pre-adjudicated cases’ realistic in absence of actual VB movement?

That is correct. VB is the proof of the pudding.

[harinatham14]

July VB is Out
EB2-I - 8th July 2009 (+ 26 Days)
EB3-I - 1st June 2009 (+ 61 Days)

[AceMan]

July VB is Out
EB2-I - 8th July 2009 (+ 26 Days)
EB3-I - 1st June 2009 (+ 61 Days)


4 weeks movement of Eb2 I in a long long time.

[NJMavarick]

4 weeks movement of Eb2 I in a long long time.

True! I was certainly expecting 2-3 months movement. The demand is known and if the FB spill over was available to EB2I then it should have moved further. We still have 2 bulletins left and I expect another month or 2 movement at the very least. CO is being conservative for some reason and we may never know why!

Is CO just going by the yearly quota? The date for the first October FY 2020 bulletin was May 2009 and we are now at July 2009. It seems he just accounted for the mandated 2800~ visas for EB2I. Where is the spill over?

[Ind2009]

July VB is Out
EB2-I - 8th July 2009 (+ 26 Days)
EB3-I - 1st June 2009 (+ 61 Days)

EB1-I - 08 MAY 2017 - That is almost 11 months, which is certainly a positive sign.
If EB1 is able to get current in the next couple of months. It should benefit EB2-I to bring down the wait time.

[Auser123]

True! I was certainly expecting 2-3 months movement. The demand is known and if the FB spill over was available to EB2I then it should have moved further. We still have 2 bulletins left and I expect another month or 2 movement at the very least. CO is being conservative for some reason and we may never know why!

Is CO just going by the yearly quota? The date for the first October FY 2020 bulletin was May 2009 and we are now at July 2009. It seems he just accounted for the mandated 2800~ visas for EB2I. Where is the spill over?

Do you think there will be further movement in EB3 I for this Fiscal year?

[NJMavarick]

EB1-I - 08 MAY 2017 - That is almost 11 months, which is certainly a positive sign.
If EB1 is able to get current in the next couple of months. It should benefit EB2-I to bring down the wait time.

I do not think EB1I will get current this fiscal. Is there a chance starting next fiscal? Absolutely, and when that happens, EB2I will benefit. I still see scope of couple of months movement in EB2I this fiscal. EB3I may move in tandem but unlike EB2I, EB3I demand is only known by CO so hard to predict.

The check-in with Charlie will provide some more insight.

[imdeng]

Movement in Dates for Filing as well.

EB2I is now 15AUG09 (from 01JUL09)
EB1I is now 01AUG17 (from 15MAR17)

[Zenzone]

Movement in Dates for Filing as well.

EB2I is now 15AUG09 (from 01JUL09)
EB1I is now 01AUG17 (from 15MAR17)

This is good news. I think in the last two months date should further advance. Bigger FO SO to EB for next fiscal is applied in summer of 2021? Am I right here?

[AceMan]

True! I was certainly expecting 2-3 months movement. The demand is known and if the FB spill over was available to EB2I then it should have moved further. We still have 2 bulletins left and I expect another month or 2 movement at the very least. CO is being conservative for some reason and we may never know why!

Is CO just going by the yearly quota? The date for the first October FY 2020 bulletin was May 2009 and we are now at July 2009. It seems he just accounted for the mandated 2800~ visas for EB2I. Where is the spill over?


Unfortunately the numbers will be skewed if we still continue to have different filing date for both Eb2 and Eb3I. I feel both Eb2 and 3 I should have an identical long filing date of 12/31/2011 for October 2020, FY 2021. That is the only way to prevent porting, which is nothing but a new petition with an old date.

[NJMavarick]

This is good news. I think in the last two months date should further advance. Bigger FO SO to EB for next fiscal is applied in summer of 2021? Am I right here?

IMO, the filing dates will advance in anticipation of the spill over and it should happen in Q1 2021 fiscal year (i.e. Oct to Dec 2020). Once the demand and supply is known the FAD will keep moving. Typically, filing dates are accepted in Q1 of fiscal year.

[Zenzone]

Unfortunately the numbers will be skewed if we still continue to have different filing date for both Eb2 and Eb3I. I feel both Eb2 and 3 I should have an identical long filing date of 12/31/2011 for October 2020, FY 2021. That is the only way to prevent porting, which is nothing but a new petition with an old date.

Fair point! That was in part the point of my question on FB SO timing also. When there would be merit in moving the filing dates consequently to generate adequate demand from the filers.

[NJMavarick]

Unfortunately the numbers will be skewed if we still continue to have different filing date for both Eb2 and Eb3I. I feel both Eb2 and 3 I should have an identical long filing date of 12/31/2011 for October 2020, FY 2021. That is the only way to prevent porting, which is nothing but a new petition with an old date.

While I agree with you, if the expected spill over is made available and applied, there should not be a considerable gap between the 2 dates. This is considering EB2ROW is current and EB3I will have low demand and EB3ROW is still not current. ROW will consume some amount of visas before horizontal spill over happens. CO always has been conservative and realizes the possibility of porting.

[AceMan]

While I agree with you, if the expected spill over is made available and applied, there should not be a considerable gap between the 2 dates. This is considering EB2ROW is current and EB3I will have low demand and EB3ROW is still not current. ROW will consume some amount of visas before horizontal spill over happens. CO always has been conservative and realizes the possibility of porting.

There is a reason why the filing date was created in 2015. It makes sense to give some long days for both Eb2 and Eb3 India since both have near final dates.

Moving the filing days differently will only enable the applicants to apply for both queues and delays the progress of both queues. I am still not sure why USCIS/DOS cannot use the A number to filter out duplicate 140 and move the dates accordingly.

Advancement of the dates to 01/01/2012 will ensure people up until 2011 end can apply without the need for changing queues. They can hold the dates for 6-9 months.

[jimmys]

Do you think there will be further movement in EB3 I for this Fiscal year?

EB-3 ROW is not current and it keeps on moving. So, no horizontal SO expected to EB-3 I. I'm pleasantly surprised even it moved up to Jun 1,2009. With consulates re-opening slowly in the coming months, the probability of dates moving is much less IMO.

[jimmys]

There is a reason why the filing date was created in 2015. It makes sense to give some long days for both Eb2 and Eb3 India since both have near final dates.

Moving the filing days differently will only enable the applicants to apply for both queues and delays the progress of both queues. I am still not sure why USCIS/DOS cannot use the A number to filter out duplicate 140 and move the dates accordingly.

Advancement of the dates to 01/01/2012 will ensure people up until 2011 end can apply without the need for changing queues. They can hold the dates for 6-9 months.

Why an arbitrary date 1/1/2012? Does it cover your PD? Just curious.

[android09]

Why an arbitrary date 1/1/2012? Does it cover your PD? Just curious.

Yes, looks like it. From Aceman profile - PD 02/01/2011 but that being said, I agree with the point. In 2015 it had moved till mid 2011 and no reason to not move it to atleast that date from 5 years ago and build an inventory pipeline.

[Zenzone]

Why an arbitrary date 1/1/2012? Does it cover your PD? Just curious.

Understand your curiosity. Aren't we all are in here for our own interests with wishful thinking ;)

[Zenzone]

Separate and unrelated question - Why although my profile has progressed to a Sensei, I don't have enough green bars underneath? While others who haven't progressed to my level have more bars. Not that it makes a difference to me but curious to know about the rating system.

[android09]

Separate and unrelated question - Why although my profile has progressed to a Sensei, I don't have enough green bars underneath? While other who haven't progressed to my level have more bars. Not that it makes a difference to me but curious to know about the rating system.

Green card or Green bars under your name....take your pick.

[qesehmk]

Separate and unrelated question - Why although my profile has progressed to a Sensei, I don't have enough green bars underneath? While other who haven't progressed to my level have more bars. Not that it makes a difference to me but curious to know about the rating system.

The reputation system is automated. When somebody adds to your reputation by clicking on the star underneath your post , it increases your bars. Reputation can only be positive. We don't have negative reputation. Also if the person giving your reputation him/her self is a reputed one it weighs much more than a person with low reputation.

Since you have been so great - I am going to add to your reputation.

All cheap bastards out there - do give reputation to people helping you out!!

[AceMan]

Why an arbitrary date 1/1/2012? Does it cover your PD? Just curious.

We all can have our own wish list. It does not mean it has to happen. If you wish let us have the date 01/01/21. The point I am making is to have filing date till the end of a calendar year.

With the expectation of a huge spillover from family I added one more year, other wise I would have listed out 01/01/11. If my PD was in my mind at the time of writing I would have said 03/01/2011 ����

[Zenzone]

The reputation system is automated. When somebody adds to your reputation by clicking on the star underneath your post , it increases your bars. Reputation can only be positive. We don't have negative reputation. Also if the person giving your reputation him/her self is a reputed one it weighs much more than a person with low reputation.

Since you have been so great - I am going to add to your reputation.

All cheap bastards out there - do give reputation to people helping you out!!

LOL...Thanks Q.

[Zenzone]

Green card or Green bars under your name....take your pick.

Is that even a question man (or) lady ;)

[Moveon]

July Bulletin :
Final Action :
EB2I - 08-JUL-09
EB3I - 01-JUN-09

[gcinthislife]

Hello Guys,

New Here. Got to this forum via search engine (don't ask me which one :)
In the same boat as many of you, if not all. EB2I, PD is in Dec 2012, with a lot of speculations around the spillovers, any predictions/hope when PD could go all the way up to Dec '12.?

Thanks,

[Blue_fairy]

July VB is Out
EB2-I - 8th July 2009 (+ 26 Days)
EB3-I - 1st June 2009 (+ 61 Days)

hooray!! The optimist in me says just 3 more months before my PD is current.. the pessimist tells me that last time my PD was current was 8 years ago :-D

What decides the need for an in-person interview?

[aquatican]

Hi Gurus,
My PD became current 06/15/2009 in this bulletin. the RFE with medicals was responded 10/2018 so medicals should be valid for 2 years.

do you guys recommend waiting till Jul 1 when my PD becomes effective to take inquiry actions like Infopass or Level 2 officer?

[srimurthy]

Yes, looks like it. From Aceman profile - PD 02/01/2011 but that being said, I agree with the point. In 2015 it had moved till mid 2011 and no reason to not move it to atleast that date from 5 years ago and build an inventory pipeline.

I guess you intended to say mid 2010 or April 2010 to be specific.

[getsaby]

Hello experts

Given somewhat good movement in Jul 2020, what are your takes for all EBI in the next two bulletins?
Do you think CO will move the FD too?

[NJMavarick]

Hello experts

Given somewhat good movement in Jul 2020, what are your takes for all EBI in the next two bulletins?
Do you think CO will move the FD too?

Filing dates did move! However, they will be relevant starting next fiscal year as that is when they are expected to accept them. There will be some additional movement in the next 2 bulletins. Perhaps another couple of months.

[idliman]

Filing dates did move! However, they will be relevant starting next fiscal year as that is when they are expected to accept them. There will be some additional movement in the next 2 bulletins. Perhaps another couple of months.
EB2I started the year at 12MAY09 (Oct 2019 bulletin). The pending inventory had 2841 people in queue in May and June 2009. So, can we say that Charlie is blindly moving dates without getting USCIS feedback on demand? IVs tweet seems to have some truth in it. If CO is not applying spillover to EB2I as he is blind on the demand side, why will he even move dates in the next two bulletins?
For EB3I, he should have old statistics on demand as FA dates held steady at 01JUL09 for a few months. So, this makes my argument that he is blindly moving the dates.
If the field offices open for business next week (June 22nd), then he might get some real demand statistics. It would be interesting to see what he says in the check-in. If he does not say much, then he is just moving dates arbitrarily (and conservatively). Just a theory.

[NJMavarick]

EB2I started the year at 12MAY09 (Oct 2019 bulletin). The pending inventory had 2841 people in queue in May and June 2009. So, can we say that Charlie is blindly moving dates without getting USCIS feedback on demand? IVs tweet seems to have some truth in it. If CO is not applying spillover to EB2I as he is blind on the demand side, why will he even move dates in the next two bulletins?
For EB3I, he should have old statistics on demand as FA dates held steady at 01JUL09 for a few months. So, this makes my argument that he is blindly moving the dates.
If the field offices open for business next week (June 22nd), then he might get some real demand statistics. It would be interesting to see what he says in the check-in. If he does not say much, then he is just moving dates arbitrarily (and conservatively). Just a theory.

You could be right in the sense that CO used the 2806 number and moved the dates. If that is the case then he can still advance the dates by a few months in the next 2 bulletins. No one can predict and know what is going to happen. We can only hope that the EB2I dates move by another couple of months. Ideally, he should move it to December 2009 considering the FB and horizontal SO , but expecting them to do the right thing is futile.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Any updated predictions for May 2010 EB2I? What happens if the PD is met and you don't take any action on it? If my PD (May 2010) becomes current and I don't do anything (I have never filed I-485) and leave the country, is that lost? Hypothetically if I come back in the future and the PD is ahead of that, is that still good to use for a future filing?

[kuku82]

EB2I started the year at 12MAY09 (Oct 2019 bulletin). The pending inventory had 2841 people in queue in May and June 2009. So, can we say that Charlie is blindly moving dates without getting USCIS feedback on demand? IVs tweet seems to have some truth in it. If CO is not applying spillover to EB2I as he is blind on the demand side, why will he even move dates in the next two bulletins?
For EB3I, he should have old statistics on demand as FA dates held steady at 01JUL09 for a few months. So, this makes my argument that he is blindly moving the dates.
If the field offices open for business next week (June 22nd), then he might get some real demand statistics. It would be interesting to see what he says in the check-in. If he does not say much, then he is just moving dates arbitrarily (and conservatively). Just a theory.

He may not be completely blind. Dates advanced to May 2010 back then, and people filed for 485.

[NJMavarick]

Any updated predictions for May 2010 EB2I? What happens if the PD is met and you don't take any action on it? If my PD (May 2010) becomes current and I don't do anything (I have never filed I-485) and leave the country, is that lost? Hypothetically if I come back in the future and the PD is ahead of that, is that still good to use for a future filing?

IMO. You can always file as long as the priority date in VB is ahead than your priority date. However, if the filing date is ahead but FAD is not and USCIS accepts the filing date, then you better file and not miss the chance to get EAD.

P.S: I am not an attorney so please do your due diligence.

[idliman]

Any updated predictions for May 2010 EB2I? What happens if the PD is met and you don't take any action on it? If my PD (May 2010) becomes current and I don't do anything (I have never filed I-485) and leave the country, is that lost? Hypothetically if I come back in the future and the PD is ahead of that, is that still good to use for a future filing?
I am not an attorney. So please DYOR.

To file I485, your I-140 needs to be valid. In other words, employer should not withdraw it due to layoff or some other reason. One of the main benefits of filing I-485 is the 180 day AC21 clock from the receipt date. After 180 days of I-485 pending, your employer cannot withdraw your I-140 and then you become eligible for AC21 job portability. You don't need to do a new PERM. However, you need to find a job in same or similar category and your new employer should be willing to submit I-485 Supplement J form. This gives a lot of protection for immigrants waiting to adjust status.

A side benefit of filing I-485 is that you become eligible for (c)(9) EAD+AP card for you and your dependents. Just that fact that your I-485 is pending is very powerful. So that's why people file for I-485 immediately. Also consider the scenario NJMavarick had mentioned, i.e., PDs can retrogress. I understand that large IT consultancy companies routinely push their workers back and forth (from India) and can provide I485J or you can do CP from India even after 10 years from now. However, it is in your benefit to file I485 as soon as your PD is current. I understand that you might have your own reason for not filing I485. Typically people might wait for the marriage and spouse (or dependents) to enter USA and then file I485. This helps elder kids from aging out. If there are other reasons, I am very interested to hear.

One thing I am not sure is whether the 180 day AC21 clock is valid for "filing" or DF dates, as this is a new thing for me. I understand that DF will not protect kids from aging out (was discussed in this forum earlier). Only FA dates will protect kids from aging out.

[vsivarama]

Any updated predictions for May 2010 EB2I? What happens if the PD is met and you don't take any action on it? If my PD (May 2010) becomes current and I don't do anything (I have never filed I-485) and leave the country, is that lost? Hypothetically if I come back in the future and the PD is ahead of that, is that still good to use for a future filing?

Technically, you should be able to file any time in future (I am not a lawyer and so take it with a pinch of salt). The reason I say that is because we have all seen the pending 485 inventory charts (from back in the day when it was a thing). In those charts there always used to be some cases from late 90's or early 2000's pending at service centers even when they have been current for a while. However if you want to stay in US and not apply for I-485 it's a separate issue. As per the law "the foreign national must apply for adjustment of status within one year of their priority date becoming “current” (or immigrant visa becoming available) in order to remain eligible for post sixth year H-1B extensions based on an approved I-140".

Below is the source for that

https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=9a21af17-b4db-4e1d-b170-d96825a7e6c5

[Spectator]

For info.

An interesting article (https://www.prweb.com/releases/canam_shares_important_takeaways_from_the_conversa tion_with_charlie_oppenheim_webinar/prweb17198291.htm) published today by an EB5 group following a webinar which included CO. It's had some discussion on Trackitt, where I found it.

Some of the info is more specific to EB5, but some is more generic.

I'll leave others to discuss what they make of it.

[EB32010]

For info.

An interesting article (https://www.prweb.com/releases/canam_shares_important_takeaways_from_the_conversa tion_with_charlie_oppenheim_webinar/prweb17198291.htm) published today by an EB5 group following a webinar which included CO. It's had some discussion on Trackitt, where I found it.

Some of the info is more specific to EB5, but some is more generic.

I'll leave others to discuss what they make of it.
Would love to hear your ballpark prediction if we get 200,000 visas next FY.

[suninphx]

For info.

An interesting article (https://www.prweb.com/releases/canam_shares_important_takeaways_from_the_conversa tion_with_charlie_oppenheim_webinar/prweb17198291.htm) published today by an EB5 group following a webinar which included CO. It's had some discussion on Trackitt, where I found it.

Some of the info is more specific to EB5, but some is more generic.

I'll leave others to discuss what they make of it.

Thanks Spec for sharing this.

"Fiscal 2021 should be a very good year under the current INA guidelines for visa availability for employment applicants.” is important statement.

20K additional visas may or may not mean much for EB-I depending upon demand for other countries.

[qesehmk]

Incredibly encouraging words from CO - particularly as it relates to visa availability next year based on unused FB visas this year.

One must understand that the unused FB visas go to EB and vice versa. This is Law. There is no getting around that. However slowing down immigration execution is an administrative thing. And let's hope the administration doesn't do that.

If we see good EB backlogged movement this year itself (based on unused EB CP numbers) then we have reason to believe that next year will be extremely good. Lets keep watch how EB moves this year.

[Zenzone]

Thanks Spec for sharing this.

"Fiscal 2021 should be a very good year under the current INA guidelines for visa availability for employment applicants.” is important statement.

20K additional visas may or may not mean much for EB-I depending upon demand for other countries.

Yes. Hoping that ROW demand takes time to pick up. Also, is there a chance that CO will apply unused FB SO visas early next fiscal...Say Oct-Dec (Q1)? DOn't know if there is anything in the statute that prevents him from doing it or if there has been any precedence.

[Zenzone]

Would love to hear your ballpark prediction if we get 200,000 visas next FY.

Getting 200K SO to begin with is very much up in the air. Key caveat is whether the FB consular GC ban is extended to begin with.

[NJMavarick]

Yes. Hoping that ROW demand takes time to pick up. Also, is there a chance that CO will apply unused FB SO visas early next fiscal...Say Oct-Dec (Q1)? DOn't know if there is anything in the statute that prevents him from doing it or if there has been any precedence.

I would think he would want to move the filing dates in Q1 next fiscal and move the FAD throughout the year. Given his statement, I am now expecting a spill over of 80K or more. The ban is most likely to get extended.

EB1I will be current for sure and might provide some vertical SO to EB2. EB2I is poised to gain quite a bit if the EB2ROW stays current which it most likely will. This is great new. Now, lets hope CO does not go too conservative and applies the SO and moves the dates.

[Zenzone]

I would think he would want to move the filing dates in Q1 next fiscal and move the FAD throughout the year. Given his statement, I am now expecting a spill over of 80K or more. The ban is most likely to get extended.

EB1I will be current for sure and might provide some vertical SO to EB2. EB2I is poised to gain quite a bit if the EB2ROW stays current which it most likely will. This is great new. Now, lets hope CO does not go too conservative and applies the SO and moves the dates.

Yes. Looking at the demand data for EB2 and EB3 if 100K SO materializes, we might clear mid 2010 for EB2 and entire 2010 for EB3. If that happens downgrades might gain steam which is another aspect to watch. I still believe in the long term EB2 and EB3 will move in tandem.

[NJMavarick]

Yes. Looking at the demand data for EB2 and EB3 if 100K SO materializes, we might clear mid 2010 for EB2 and entire 2010 for EB3. If that happens downgrades might gain steam which is another aspect to watch. I still believe in the long term EB2 and EB3 will move in tandem.

To your point of 100K SO, then EB2I would get in excess of 30K visas which would easily cover 2010. EB3I would also get around 20K (leaving the rest to ROW to get current) That is 50K combined. The dates easily should be in 2011 if that materializes.

[suninphx]

I don’t think CO mentions 100K spillover. I think his expectation is 200K visas for next year(instead of 140K ). Which means 60K extra visas across the categories. As Q mentioned processing time will play important role. Otherwise unused visas will go back to FB’s Fy2020 quota. I hope at least dates move as far as possible.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Thank you, @NJMavarick, @idliman and @vsivarama! You guys are awesome.

[Zenzone]

I don’t think CO mentions 100K spillover. I think his expectation is 200K visas for next year(instead of 140K ). Which means 60K extra visas across the categories. As Q mentioned processing will important role. Otherwise unused visas will go back to FB’s Fy2020 quota. I hope at least dates move as far as possible.

Agree. 100K SO scenario is clearly predicated on the ban being extended for another 60 days. Which is a big IF. Hopefully processing constraints also don't become a hiccup. But moving filing dates could be the least damaging option here which provides better visibility for CO also for years/months to come. Boy we have all been proved terribly wrong in the past. Cautious Optimism!

[NJMavarick]

I don’t think CO mentions 100K spillover. I think his expectation is 200K visas for next year(instead of 140K ). Which means 60K extra visas across the categories. As Q mentioned processing time will play important role. Otherwise unused visas will go back to FB’s Fy2020 quota. I hope at least dates move as far as possible.

We understand that! CO mentioned at minimum 60K in the article. The ban is going to get extended. We only have 3 months left. How much of the balance ~134k FB visas will be utilized? Very few will be consumed by the folks already in the US and IF which is a big IF the consulates open and the ban does not get extended...maybe another 30K visas will be consumed. 100K SO is a possibility.

[NJMavarick]

Agree. 100K SO scenario is clearly predicated on the ban being extended for another 60 days. Which is a big IF. Hopefully processing constraints also don't become a hiccup. But moving filing dates could be the least damaging option here which provides better visibility for CO also for years/months to come. Boy we have all been proved terribly wrong in the past. Cautious Optimism!

Yeh! CO is known to go conservative but he can move the Filing Dates and generate demand to get a clear picture and move FAD as he sees fit...lets hope the ADMIN does not needle around.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If there is 100k spillover, will EB2I be slated to receive ~ 28%, i.e. 28k? The old pending I-485 inventory from July 2018 shows ~ 18k, bulk of it until May 2010. Would it be reasonable to expect the dates will then clear out everyone until that time at least or maybe beyond?

[android09]

Please predict where dates might reach if there is a 100k spillover?

[gcvijay]

Looks like USCIS is NOT honoring the filing dates:

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-july-2020

[Zenzone]

Please predict where dates might reach if there is a 100k spillover?

Its been done in some prior posts right here right this morning ;)

[Zenzone]

Looks like USCIS is NOT honoring the filing dates:

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-july-2020

So what? They typically honor them eventually (Usually in Q1).

[vsivarama]

Before everyone gets their hopes up, sorry to be acting as a reality check here. We had close to 16k spillover visas this year from FB. All probably might go to waste. We are not even sure the entire 140K EB numbers will be applied this year. So a spillover of 60K - 120K visas is just a number when they may be potentially wasted. We have two choices in November either Trump wins, in which case Miller (He believes camp of the saints is a book that needs to be cherished by everyone. In case you do not know about the book it's about browning of western civilization specifically with Indians) will come up with innovative ways to waste numbers. If Biden wins, it's most likely he wins the Senate and House. In this case they can always include the current legislation they have in Heroes act for FB to get back the wasted visa numbers. Either way I do not think CO can do anything about it. Any constructive critique is welcome.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I sort of agree with this being in the queue for 10 years. USCIS/DoS uh... always finds a way, to keep prolonging the misery and this is through Dem/Rep governments. When you have Charlie already creating excuses like he is working from home and does not have access to the office database, what type of baloney is that when millions of people in IT are able to do so with something simple called a VPN? This is just systemic incompetence because of decades of hand wringing and politics from both sides. To be honest, there are just too many people trying to immigrate and not enough processing capacity or interest colored with politics of whatever current admin is in place and the makeup of the Senate and House. I just don't see any meaningful reform or progress to be made considering the fact that there is usually only a 2 year window when an admin has the WH and both chambers to get anything passed.

[NJMavarick]

Before everyone gets their hopes up, sorry to be acting as a reality check here. We had close to 16k spillover visas this year from FB. All probably might go to waste. We are not even sure the entire 140K EB numbers will be applied this year. So a spillover of 60K - 120K visas is just a number when they may be potentially wasted. We have two choices in November either Trump wins, in which case Miller (He believes camp of the saints is a book that needs to be cherished by everyone. In case you do not know about the book it's about browning of western civilization specifically with Indians) will come up with innovative ways to waste numbers. If Biden wins, it's most likely he wins the Senate and House. In this case they can always include the current legislation they have in Heroes act for FB to get back the wasted visa numbers. Either way I do not think CO can do anything about it. Any constructive critique is welcome.

Your argument will be totally hold valid if we do not see any further movement in the next 2 VBs. If Miller wanted to needle around then EB1 dates would not have progressed. The SO will be available starting October and CO will have a couple of months to move the filing dates before the results of elections come in. IMO, any change to the availability of the SO has to happen before the next fiscal starts. HEROES act is dead.

The next stimulus is going to be coming late July and I do not think Rs will agree considering the sole purpose of the ban was to exclude FB visas. Why agree to include them now?

Having said that, the dates next year will move maybe 3 months instead of 6 (hypothetically speaking) but there will be movement.

[siriyal75]

Your argument will be totally hold valid if we do not see any further movement in the next 2 VBs. If Miller wanted to needle around then EB1 dates would not have progressed. The SO will be available starting October and CO will have a couple of months to move the filing dates before the results of elections come in. IMO, any change to the availability of the SO has to happen before the next fiscal starts. HEROES act is dead.

The next stimulus is going to be coming late July and I do not think Rs will agree considering the sole purpose of the ban was to exclude FB visas. Why agree to include them now?

Having said that, the dates next year will move maybe 3 months instead of 6 (hypothetically speaking) but there will be movement.

Another thing CO , did not consider HEROS bill/act, if this passed in next 2-3 months, there will be no spill over from FB to EB, the total SO visas will be forwarded to 2021 and 2022.

[Zenzone]

Before everyone gets their hopes up, sorry to be acting as a reality check here. We had close to 16k spillover visas this year from FB. All probably might go to waste. We are not even sure the entire 140K EB numbers will be applied this year. So a spillover of 60K - 120K visas is just a number when they may be potentially wasted. We have two choices in November either Trump wins, in which case Miller (He believes camp of the saints is a book that needs to be cherished by everyone. In case you do not know about the book it's about browning of western civilization specifically with Indians) will come up with innovative ways to waste numbers. If Biden wins, it's most likely he wins the Senate and House. In this case they can always include the current legislation they have in Heroes act for FB to get back the wasted visa numbers. Either way I do not think CO can do anything about it. Any constructive critique is welcome.

I like the balancing view here. Not sure how they can pass a bill after the fiscal year is over when INA requires to move unused visas by the end of the fiscal. Also, remember in senate there will be a need to have a filibuster proof majority for Dems to pass any legislation without bi-partisan support. Heroes Act is clearly not bi-partisan at this moment. Even if there is a blue wave (as it appears today) there is no chance dems. are going to get 60 seats in the Senate to avoid filibuster by any GOP senator on legislations. As far as GOP retaining the WH, its actually status quo in my mind. To me processing ability of USCIS is a bigger concern given its financial crunch and the lingering pandemic.

[Zenzone]

Another thing CO , did not consider HEROS bill/act, if this passed in next 2-3 months, there will be no spill over from FB to EB, the total SO visas will be forwarded to 2021 and 2022.

Not a chance that Heros Act is getting passed in its current form. Its dead on arrival in the Senate. Won't even be taken up for voting.

[Zenzone]

Your argument will be totally hold valid if we do not see any further movement in the next 2 VBs. If Miller wanted to needle around then EB1 dates would not have progressed. The SO will be available starting October and CO will have a couple of months to move the filing dates before the results of elections come in. IMO, any change to the availability of the SO has to happen before the next fiscal starts. HEROES act is dead.

The next stimulus is going to be coming late July and I do not think Rs will agree considering the sole purpose of the ban was to exclude FB visas. Why agree to include them now?

Having said that, the dates next year will move maybe 3 months instead of 6 (hypothetically speaking) but there will be movement.

Agree. I think generally speaking after elections are over some heightened hysteria we are seeing this year is going to give way to some sort of return to normalcy which could help things overall. Agencies may start moving back to doing what they are meant to do - provide servicing and immigration benefits adjudication.

[siriyal75]

We have another 3 months time, we will get some kind of Stimulus bill, which both parties and public need.
Dems will include this provision, it will be hidden some where in the bill and get it passed.

[Zenzone]

Another huge news - Supreme Court just ruled blocking the current administration from ending DACA! This clearly sets some strong precedence for the limits of executive branch's powers.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Agree. I think generally speaking after elections are over some heightened hysteria we are seeing this year is going to give way to some sort of return to normalcy which could help things overall. Agencies may start moving back to doing what they are meant to do - provide servicing and immigration benefits adjudication.

If the Dems win, the first thing Durbin will take up from an immigration standpoint is a path to citizenship for DACA recipients and codify that into law to prevent further challenges. Legal immigration has always been a back-burner issue for them to kick the can down the road.

[Zenzone]

If the Dems win, the first thing Durbin will take up from an immigration standpoint is a path to citizenship for DACA recipients and codify that into law to prevent further challenges. Legal immigration has always been a back-burner issue for them to kick the can down the road.

Again you NEED bi-partisan support or filibuster proof majority in the Senate. Without that its NOT possible to move legislations that are contentious like immigration bills.

[Zenzone]

We have another 3 months time, we will get some kind of Stimulus bill, which both parties and public need.
Dems will include this provision, it will be hidden some where in the bill and get it passed.

Things don't work in Washington that way! If not some of these things would have been passed in the past 4 years. One thing that can't be understated is the checks and balances we have in our system here.

[idliman]

I was somewhat disappointed with the July VB. I expected the dates to move much further. If they cannot move dates further to avoid wastage in this perfect scenario for EB2I/EB3I, when are they going to move? Even though we are Engineers and analysts and doctors with strong logic background, sometimes you need acknowledge that there is an universal force that is taking us for a ride in its own will. Hopefully this painful phase shall pass.

On the legislation front, if JB wins, nothing is going to happen in the first few years.I think, if JB wins maybe the spillover will be applied without wastage. That is a good thing for people with PDs in 2010. If Trump wins again maybe the democrats will come to a compromise.

[mcmilers]

Last 4 years have been such a roller coaster ride. we have some good news or a ray of hope and we are all exited and we see a lot of activity. Then after the high dies down we are back to reality of this administration and all the headwinds we face.
I guess we will just have to believe the hype of spillover when we see it.

[NJMavarick]

I was somewhat disappointed with the July VB. I expected the dates to move much further. If they cannot move dates further to avoid wastage in this perfect scenario for EB2I/EB3I, when are they going to move? Even though we are Engineers and analysts and doctors with strong logic background, sometimes you need acknowledge that there is an universal force that is taking us for a ride in its own will. Hopefully this painful phase shall pass.

On the legislation front, if JB wins, nothing is going to happen in the first few years.I think, if JB wins maybe the spillover will be applied without wastage. That is a good thing for people with PDs in 2010. If Trump wins again maybe the democrats will come to a compromise.

Oh, JB will push legislation to legalize DACA! That would be his first priority...

Ds are all for the undocumented...no one cares about US!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Oh, JB will push legislation to legalize DACA! That would be his first priority...

Ds are all for the undocumented...no one cares about US!

No one cares about the undocumented. They do care about the Hispanic voting bloc.

[Zenzone]

Its an understatement to say we are all frustrated in recent years. Hope is something that can't be forsaken either. Good news is months from now (not years) we will know if the hype this time becomes actual reality.

[Ind2009]

Posting this just for awareness and I'm not sure if there is a bigger issue.
485 for me any my family was approved on Friday June 12th and we received the approval letters in mail on Monday June 15th.
There is no update after that about card being produced or mailed.
Based on messages from Trackitt forum, there are other folks for whom the case was approved on June 10 / 11th have also not got their cards nor any update in their case status.
So it will be interesting to see if this is in anyway related to the news we read about stopping issue of Greencards and if USCIS are actually being asked to slow down the process for approved cases.

[Pundit Arjun]

Posting this just for awareness and I'm not sure if there is a bigger issue.
485 for me any my family was approved on Friday June 12th and we received the approval letters in mail on Monday June 15th.
There is no update after that about card being produced or mailed.
Based on messages from Trackitt forum, there are other folks for whom the case was approved on June 10 / 11th have also not got their cards nor any update in their case status.
So it will be interesting to see if this is in anyway related to the news we read about stopping issue of Greencards and if USCIS are actually being asked to slow down the process for approved cases.

LOL :). Your family and you should get your cards soon buddy.
Don’t think the agency will stoop to that level to not produce and send the cards 😀

[redtogreen]

I was somewhat disappointed with the July VB. I expected the dates to move much further. If they cannot move dates further to avoid wastage in this perfect scenario for EB2I/EB3I, when are they going to move? Even though we are Engineers and analysts and doctors with strong logic background, sometimes you need acknowledge that there is an universal force that is taking us for a ride in its own will. Hopefully this painful phase shall pass.

On the legislation front, if JB wins, nothing is going to happen in the first few years.I think, if JB wins maybe the spillover will be applied without wastage. That is a good thing for people with PDs in 2010. If Trump wins again maybe the democrats will come to a compromise.

I agree. I was expecting better movement for Eb2I. This movement did not reflect the substantial SO that was being discussed and analyzed. It made everyone happy that it moved by a month( maybe due to other rumors of greencard processing oh hold etc.,)but few realized that it did not account for the horizontal SO we were all waiting for. Next 2 months will tell. Fingers crossed. If we fail to get the expected SO this year, what should make us optimistic for next year?! The vertical SO may not mean too much given the demand etc.,

[idliman]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Mr. CO proudly says he will waste 25K EB visas this year because USCIS does not have capacity.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India will certainly exceed their per country limits this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to reaching its worldwide limits.

QUESTION: In last month’s Check In, Charlie said that “it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020.” If that is the case, why is Charlie not accelerating the Visa Bulletin with the hope of attracting as many approvals as possible?

ANSWER: That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use.

Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS is diminished due to the pandemic. Currently, immigrant visa processing at consular posts abroad is limited to “mission critical” processing, which is defined at the discretion of the post and which is often limited to adjudicating cases based on compelling reasons, such as age-outs.

Immigrant visa processing at USCIS has also been constrained due to the pandemic, but their capacity has been much greater than that of the consular posts. For example, in May 2020, USCIS used over 3,600 numbers across the employment-based first and second preference categories. This contrasts with number usage in excess of 6,000 for the same categories in May 2019.

The premise that dramatically advancing the Final Action Dates will result in full (or closer to full) number usage is flawed. The agencies’ (and State’s) diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase actual number usage this fiscal year. Additionally, such abrupt movements would likely result in corrective action in the form of retrogression, which should be avoided.

The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Given USCIS’s potential processing capacity and the current status of these cases, it may be realistic to expect that USCIS will be able to finalize as many employment-based cases as its capacity allows. In contrast, while there is significant demand for EB-5 China numbers awaiting processing in Guangzhou, there is no pre-adjudicated pending demand for EB-5 China numbers at USCIS, and at this time USCIS’s data does not demonstrate significant USCIS demand for that category.

There is no data to indicate the existence of significant EB-5 China USCIS demand that would warrant a more rapid advancement of the Final Action Date in this category. As it stands, this category has advanced much more rapidly than I would have thought possible earlier in the fiscal year. Last October, I expected the best case scenario for the FY2020 EB-5 China Final Action Date to reach March 8, 2015.

However, I have been pleased that the data has subsequently supported advancing the date far into the summer to July 22, 2015. As there remains a significant amount of pending consular demand and no USCIS pending demand, sweeping advancements in this category are not supported by the data at this time. However, as the situation is constantly being monitored, future changes cannot be ruled out.

Although many employment-based preference categories are unlikely to reach their annual limits, there are two categories which are close to doing so. When a final action date was imposed for EB-3 Worldwide earlier this fiscal year, it signaled that this category was close to reaching its annual limit. Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.

QUESTION: Also, does he have an estimate as to how many visas they would be short in FY2020?

ANSWER: The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able to return to something approaching normal processing.

Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity, there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.

I give up and want to cry.

[srimurthy]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Mr. CO proudly says he will waste 25K EB visas this year because USCIS does not have capacity.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India will certainly exceed their per country limits this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to reaching its worldwide limits.

QUESTION: Also, does he have an estimate as to how many visas they would be short in FY2020?

ANSWER: The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able to return to something approaching normal processing.

Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity, there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.

I give up and want to cry.

Don't we have 20K peoples files for 485 in EB2 when the dates moved to April 2010 earlier? If that is the case then it is a matter of just assigning the available GC number to the 20K and process whenever they want to may be next year! Or is it that since USCIS doesn't have people ready to work they would not even request for a visa number even if they have the 485s filed?

[4WatItsWorth]

Don't we have 20K peoples files for 485 in EB2 when the dates moved to April 2010 earlier? If that is the case then it is a matter of just assigning the available GC number to the 20K and process whenever they want to may be next year! Or is it that since USCIS doesn't have people ready to work they would not even request for a visa number even if they have the 485s filed?No, it is because USCIS is a piece of shit agency. Because, EB will be getting FB unused visas next year, they want to transfer some from EB lest more backlog could clear. They want to maintain the status quo of people rotting in backlog as much as possible. CO can try to put however much lipstick on the pig, he cannot hide the agency’s racist intentions.

[EB32010]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Mr. CO proudly says he will waste 25K EB visas this year because USCIS does not have capacity.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India will certainly exceed their per country limits this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to reaching its worldwide limits.

QUESTION: In last month’s Check In, Charlie said that “it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020.” If that is the case, why is Charlie not accelerating the Visa Bulletin with the hope of attracting as many approvals as possible?

ANSWER: That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use.

Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS is diminished due to the pandemic. Currently, immigrant visa processing at consular posts abroad is limited to “mission critical” processing, which is defined at the discretion of the post and which is often limited to adjudicating cases based on compelling reasons, such as age-outs.

Immigrant visa processing at USCIS has also been constrained due to the pandemic, but their capacity has been much greater than that of the consular posts. For example, in May 2020, USCIS used over 3,600 numbers across the employment-based first and second preference categories. This contrasts with number usage in excess of 6,000 for the same categories in May 2019.

The premise that dramatically advancing the Final Action Dates will result in full (or closer to full) number usage is flawed. The agencies’ (and State’s) diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase actual number usage this fiscal year. Additionally, such abrupt movements would likely result in corrective action in the form of retrogression, which should be avoided.

The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Given USCIS’s potential processing capacity and the current status of these cases, it may be realistic to expect that USCIS will be able to finalize as many employment-based cases as its capacity allows. In contrast, while there is significant demand for EB-5 China numbers awaiting processing in Guangzhou, there is no pre-adjudicated pending demand for EB-5 China numbers at USCIS, and at this time USCIS’s data does not demonstrate significant USCIS demand for that category.

There is no data to indicate the existence of significant EB-5 China USCIS demand that would warrant a more rapid advancement of the Final Action Date in this category. As it stands, this category has advanced much more rapidly than I would have thought possible earlier in the fiscal year. Last October, I expected the best case scenario for the FY2020 EB-5 China Final Action Date to reach March 8, 2015.

However, I have been pleased that the data has subsequently supported advancing the date far into the summer to July 22, 2015. As there remains a significant amount of pending consular demand and no USCIS pending demand, sweeping advancements in this category are not supported by the data at this time. However, as the situation is constantly being monitored, future changes cannot be ruled out.

Although many employment-based preference categories are unlikely to reach their annual limits, there are two categories which are close to doing so. When a final action date was imposed for EB-3 Worldwide earlier this fiscal year, it signaled that this category was close to reaching its annual limit. Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.

QUESTION: Also, does he have an estimate as to how many visas they would be short in FY2020?

ANSWER: The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able to return to something approaching normal processing.

Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity, there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.

I give up and want to cry.
Sadly biggest loser on all this is EB2. They might clear entire EB1 preadjudicated cases and since EB1 is not current it won’t spillover to EB2. This is the repercussion of CO not moving EB1 FAD further. What a sad state of affairs.

[oraclept]

Now I believe covid happened for a reason .. it won’t end soon .. everyone tears will not go in vain .. 16 years in USA. ...

[redtogreen]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Mr. CO proudly says he will waste 25K EB visas this year because USCIS does not have capacity.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India will certainly exceed their per country limits this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to reaching its worldwide limits.

QUESTION: In last month’s Check In, Charlie said that “it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020.” If that is the case, why is Charlie not accelerating the Visa Bulletin with the hope of attracting as many approvals as possible?

ANSWER: That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use.

Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS is diminished due to the pandemic. Currently, immigrant visa processing at consular posts abroad is limited to “mission critical” processing, which is defined at the discretion of the post and which is often limited to adjudicating cases based on compelling reasons, such as age-outs.

Immigrant visa processing at USCIS has also been constrained due to the pandemic, but their capacity has been much greater than that of the consular posts. For example, in May 2020, USCIS used over 3,600 numbers across the employment-based first and second preference categories. This contrasts with number usage in excess of 6,000 for the same categories in May 2019.

The premise that dramatically advancing the Final Action Dates will result in full (or closer to full) number usage is flawed. The agencies’ (and State’s) diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase actual number usage this fiscal year. Additionally, such abrupt movements would likely result in corrective action in the form of retrogression, which should be avoided.

The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Given USCIS’s potential processing capacity and the current status of these cases, it may be realistic to expect that USCIS will be able to finalize as many employment-based cases as its capacity allows. In contrast, while there is significant demand for EB-5 China numbers awaiting processing in Guangzhou, there is no pre-adjudicated pending demand for EB-5 China numbers at USCIS, and at this time USCIS’s data does not demonstrate significant USCIS demand for that category.

There is no data to indicate the existence of significant EB-5 China USCIS demand that would warrant a more rapid advancement of the Final Action Date in this category. As it stands, this category has advanced much more rapidly than I would have thought possible earlier in the fiscal year. Last October, I expected the best case scenario for the FY2020 EB-5 China Final Action Date to reach March 8, 2015.

However, I have been pleased that the data has subsequently supported advancing the date far into the summer to July 22, 2015. As there remains a significant amount of pending consular demand and no USCIS pending demand, sweeping advancements in this category are not supported by the data at this time. However, as the situation is constantly being monitored, future changes cannot be ruled out.

Although many employment-based preference categories are unlikely to reach their annual limits, there are two categories which are close to doing so. When a final action date was imposed for EB-3 Worldwide earlier this fiscal year, it signaled that this category was close to reaching its annual limit. Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.

QUESTION: Also, does he have an estimate as to how many visas they would be short in FY2020?

ANSWER: The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able to return to something approaching normal processing.

Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity, there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.

I give up and want to cry.

Well, within each of his check-in meetings( I think this was one too) is a cryptic message we try to decode.In this case, how about the paragraph below??
Does it mean he is expecting some good news for these categories? Then he should have moved the dates significantly in the July bulletin for 2009 PD filers which he didn't! There is no hope!

The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

[qesehmk]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Mr. CO proudly says he will waste 25K EB visas this year because USCIS does not have capacity.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India will certainly exceed their per country limits this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to reaching its worldwide limits.


He is not saying with pride ... he is saying it with horror. What you are seeing is the classic tussle between DOS and DHS. DOS can not force DHS / USCIS to ask for a visa. USCIS has to submit those backlogged cases and request visas. So unless they are open for business who is going to submit the requests for visa?

This is CO's way of nudging and shaming USCIS publicly.

[idliman]

He is not saying with pride ... he is saying it with horror. What you are seeing is the classic tussle between DOS and DHS. DOS can not force DHS / USCIS to ask for a visa. USCIS has to submit those backlogged cases and request visas. So unless they are open for business who is going to submit the requests for visa?

This is CO's way of nudging and shaming USCIS publicly.
Respectfully Q, I do not buy your theory that he is nudging and shaming USCIS. Nor do I buy the argument that DOS is acting professionally. The duty of DOS is to allocate visas and move PDs based on demand. We are in the last quarter with SO fully eligible. The moment he does not see demand, he has to keep moving the dates and make it Current. How many kids will be prevented from aging out if dates are Current? How many people will avoid refiling PERM and redoing the process due to loss of job? People can take advantage of 180-day AC21 provisions.

DOS / CO’s duty is interpreting the INA and act accordingly. He has to move the dates per INA guidelines. Whether USCIS allocates GCs is a separate problem. It is not his job to give paragraphs of excuses blaming a different agency for not moving PDs (and not doing his job duties). Why can’t he move the PDs and let USCIS pickup the low hanging fruit to reduce the wastage of GCs. Many people here will be happy with getting an EAD/AP.

[Zenzone]

He is not saying with pride ... he is saying it with horror. What you are seeing is the classic tussle between DOS and DHS. DOS can not force DHS / USCIS to ask for a visa. USCIS has to submit those backlogged cases and request visas. So unless they are open for business who is going to submit the requests for visa?

This is CO's way of nudging and shaming USCIS publicly.

Agree with you. It feels like he is taking a swipe at them but his actions haven't reinforced the words, sadly!

[Zenzone]

Well, within each of his check-in meetings( I think this was one too) is a cryptic message we try to decode.In this case, how about the paragraph below??
Does it mean he is expecting some good news for these categories? Then he should have moved the dates significantly in the July bulletin for 2009 PD filers which he didn't! There is no hope!

The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Yes. When I read this line it confused me. On one hand he says atleast 25K EB visas will be wasted and on the other he says why EB india and china are low touch cases that can be processed and moved fast! Not sure what's his point. But I agree with Idliman that if his intentions are that noble, he could have moved the EB2 dates a bit aggressively (may be to end of 2009) to exert that pressure on the processing side which he has obviously haven't (atleast yet). Also, having this problem carrying over to next fiscal is worrisome as the number of visas that could go waste is MUCH higher. These agencies operate with ZERO accountability. We should hope that Covid situation slows down next fiscal and normal processing returns as much as possible.

[Zenzone]

Respectfully Q, I do not buy your theory that he is nudging and shaming USCIS. Nor do I buy the argument that DOS is acting professionally. The duty of DOS is to allocate visas and move PDs based on demand. We are in the last quarter with SO fully eligible. The moment he does not see demand, he has to keep moving the dates and make it Current. How many kids will be prevented from aging out if dates are Current? How many people will avoid refiling PERM and redoing the process due to loss of job? People can take advantage of 180-day AC21 provisions.

DOS / CO’s duty is interpreting the INA and act accordingly. He has to move the dates per INA guidelines. Whether USCIS allocates GCs is a separate problem. It is not his job to give paragraphs of excuses blaming a different agency for not moving PDs (and not doing his job duties). Why can’t he move the PDs and let USCIS pickup the low hanging fruit to reduce the wastage of GCs. Many people here will be happy with getting an EAD/AP.

"Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity, there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit."

How is this answer relevant to wasting EB visas this year? What's he intending to say here. Is he implying that those 25K wasted visas can be carried over to next fiscal also??

[usvisas]

Are spillovers always applied the next fiscal by law/practice? Or towards the end of fiscal based on already consumed and projected numbers?

[Zenzone]

Are spillovers always applied the next fiscal by law/practice? Or towards the end of fiscal based on already consumed and projected numbers?

FB SOs are applied next fiscal. That's why I'm confused. Last year we received 16K FB SO?? Is he including those 16K within the 25K visas that he says may be wasted. If that's the case can the C/F those 16K to the following fiscal too? I'm confused!

[karanjohar]

Hello Spectator,

My question is also related to the EB visa carry over. Is it possible for EB visas to be used for the next FY. If yes, which part of INA is this mentioned?

[usvisas]

FB SOs are applied next fiscal. That's why I'm confused. Last year we received 16K FB SO?? Is he including those 16K within the 25K visas that he says may be wasted. If that's the case can the C/F those 16K to the following fiscal too? I'm confused!

I am reading that as 25K total EB visas out of 156,500 that is the numeric limitation set for 2020.

[EB32010]

I hope CO moves DF dates well ahead beginning of next FY. That way he can avoid wastage of visas. Will he do that?

[Zenzone]

I am reading that as 25K total EB visas out of 156,500 that is the numeric limitation set for 2020.

Yes. But did he imply that some of those 25K will be carried over to next fiscal?

[rocketfast]

It is such bullshit that CO moves EB1-I fast but not EB2-I. It looks like he is forced to pick and choose some categories to move fast and he picked EB1-I as his blue eyed son.

[Zenzone]

It is such bullshit that CO moves EB1-I fast but not EB2-I. It looks like he is forced to pick and choose some categories to move fast and he picked EB1-I as his blue eyed son.

Let's give him till end of this fiscal....Moving EB2 by a month is at least something.

[usvisas]

FB SOs are applied next fiscal. That's why I'm confused. Last year we received 16K FB SO?? Is he including those 16K within the 25K visas that he says may be wasted. If that's the case can the C/F those 16K to the following fiscal too? I'm confused!

And are EB spillovers applied in the same fiscal towards the end of that fiscal?

[Zenzone]

And are EB spillovers applied in the same fiscal towards the end of that fiscal?

I don't think that's codified (if I'm not wrong).

[qesehmk]

Respectfully Q, I do not buy your theory that he is nudging and shaming USCIS. Nor do I buy the argument that DOS is acting professionally. The duty of DOS is to allocate visas and move PDs based on demand. We are in the last quarter with SO fully eligible. The moment he does not see demand, he has to keep moving the dates and make it Current. How many kids will be prevented from aging out if dates are Current? How many people will avoid refiling PERM and redoing the process due to loss of job? People can take advantage of 180-day AC21 provisions.

DOS / CO’s duty is interpreting the INA and act accordingly. He has to move the dates per INA guidelines. Whether USCIS allocates GCs is a separate problem. It is not his job to give paragraphs of excuses blaming a different agency for not moving PDs (and not doing his job duties). Why can’t he move the PDs and let USCIS pickup the low hanging fruit to reduce the wastage of GCs. Many people here will be happy with getting an EAD/AP.

The short answer is - CO has done that in the past and USCIS refused to honor the dates. In that showdown DOS lost. So CO learnt his lesson and will only move dates in coordination with DHS.

CO allocates visa only AFTER DHS has requested a visa for an application. Get it?

That is my understanding. But if you have better understanding I'd be happy to learn.

[1312011_eb2I]

I don't think CO anywhere mentioned 25K visas will be wasted, he said "unused" which (as per my understanding) would move to FB, since FB will already SO 60K to EB (to become 200K), eventually, these 25K will add up to the same SO, Total SO to EB will be ~60K +25K = 85K. I still expect to see the EB2 crawling in next few VB and obviously I don't hope it will go beyond May 2010 in the next 4-5 years ( happy to hear if I am wrong).

[NJMavarick]

Yes. But did he imply that some of those 25K will be carried over to next fiscal?

He is saying "I am going to waste 25K visas but do not worry as next year we will have 60K additional FB visas available for EB".

It is clear, he has not applied the SO and is moving the dates based on the mandated yearly quota of 2806. I see this as an ominous sign. I am going to say this, if we are expecting a 6 months movement next year based on SO and logic, he will maybe only move 3 months. High probability that visas will be wasted next year and we will be rotting waiting for our dates to be current. It does not matter who is at fault, DOS / USCIS, we will be the losers.

[GC-Immigrant]

Can we setup Webinar session with CO like Chinese EB5 investors?

[eaglenow]

My question is why is there a reduced capacity to begin with? The furlough is only in August. Sure, interviews and biometrics cannot be done. But with so many backlogged cases almost ready for approval, why is the processing slow? Are they working from home or just getting paid without the ability to work?

The comments show the level of insentivity to the issues. Do they realize 25000 wasted numbers is almost 9 years of country capped numbers? Spillover next year must be in addition to not wasting visas.

This is like saying, I will burn away this months salary because I will get paid next month as well. If the capacity constraint is so severe, did they not see this earlier and is now apparent?

I can’t believe they are so nonchalant about wasting 25k visas.

At least if this would be used by FB, it may be ok, but even if 140k or zero visas spilled over to FB, the limit for FB will always be 226k. So these numbers are essentially down the drain.

[Zenzone]

He is saying "I am going to waste 25K visas but do not worry as next year we will have 60K additional FB visas available for EB".

It is clear, he has not applied the SO and is moving the dates based on the mandated yearly quota of 2806. I see this as an ominous sign. I am going to say this, if we are expecting a 6 months movement next year based on SO and logic, he will maybe only move 3 months. High probability that visas will be wasted next year and we will be rotting waiting for our dates to be current. It does not matter who is at fault, DOS / USCIS, we will be the losers.

I read it again. I don't think its clear to me. I understand your interpretation but its pretty unclear.

[Zenzone]

He is saying "I am going to waste 25K visas but do not worry as next year we will have 60K additional FB visas available for EB".

It is clear, he has not applied the SO and is moving the dates based on the mandated yearly quota of 2806. I see this as an ominous sign. I am going to say this, if we are expecting a 6 months movement next year based on SO and logic, he will maybe only move 3 months. High probability that visas will be wasted next year and we will be rotting waiting for our dates to be current. It does not matter who is at fault, DOS / USCIS, we will be the losers.

Yes. That's the risk here. We still have 2 more months lets see how many above the standard 2806 he is going this year by using some SO atleast.

[redtogreen]

My question is why is there a reduced capacity to begin with? The furlough is only in August. Sure, interviews and biometrics cannot be done. But with so many backlogged cases almost ready for approval, why is the processing slow? Are they working from home or just getting paid without the ability to work?

The comments show the level of insentivity to the issues. Do they realize 25000 wasted numbers is almost 9 years of country capped numbers? Spillover next year must be in addition to not wasting visas.

This is like saying, I will burn away this months salary because I will get paid next month as well. If the capacity constraint is so severe, did they not see this earlier and is now apparent?

I can’t believe they are so nonchalant about wasting 25k visas.

At least if this would be used by FB, it may be ok, but even if 140k or zero visas spilled over to FB, the limit for FB will always be 226k. So these numbers are essentially down the drain.

How different is it right now than a usual processing year wherein they have been allocating same number of visas if not more?! What should be adding to the productivity instead are lack of interview related tasks, no extensive application processing, work from home privileges, furlough not announced officially...!!They should have all the time to process those backlogged cases that CO himself clarified are low hanging fruits!!
The resource crunch theory is not sitting well with me given the current circumstances.We are the scapegoats unfortunately in the grand scheme of things.

[idliman]

The short answer is - CO has done that in the past and USCIS refused to honor the dates. In that showdown DOS lost. So CO learnt his lesson and will only move dates in coordination with DHS.

CO allocates visa only AFTER DHS has requested a visa for an application. Get it?

That is my understanding. But if you have better understanding I'd be happy to learn.
I understand that your opinions are based on past observations on how CO had acted. I started getting into this game only when my coworkers got GCs and other 2009’ers got stuck.

I was afraid that they will come up with an excuse to waste visas a few months back. When the moment arrived, I got emotional and disappointed. When you believe that you are close to completing the race and rules people suddenly ask you run another few loop’s around the track, it is exhausting.

I think, it would be better for everyone to have a hands-off approach. No amount of predictions and number crunching is going to help. Someone else decides what to do with PDs. Now, I am not even sure whether EB2I / EB3I PDs will move in the next few months. Is it going to be days movement because they don’t have capacity or is it going to be weeks or months?

All EB2I / EB3I folks be mentally prepared for a few years even if you are in 2009 or starting 2010 timeframe. Peace.

[monsieur]

we all are here coz we are from backlogged country (majority from India) but keep in mind when CO discuss these things in AILA settings then he is talking about general trends for all categories and not just 1 or 2 country. Based on past check-in I feel EB-5 gets good representation coz of their resource i.e money they have to influence. Just like in any field.

What I took from this check-in is that CO says ROW will not be able to use their quota and if he tries to advance date for new I-485 then there is no processing capacity (Interview, bio-metric etc) so chance of 25K visa wastage is possible. He will be diverting these ROW numbers to EB[1-2]-IC and see how many they can use based on low hanging fruit of renewing security and medical checks. CO has advanced EB1-I by 11 months and EB2-I by whole month hoping to clear as many application he can. If these advancement doesn't generate enough demand, advancement will accelrate, if he gets good demand, these will slow down. But good chance there will be visa wastage, but I don't expect 25k will be puff....

Because of inherent bias EB1 will get preferential treatment then EB2 and then EB3 but we are aware of this pecking order since day-1. In general EB1 candidate has better credential then other 2 so govt agency will prefer those candidate over others. Same for EB5 candidates (see my 1st para last line)

Does it sucks to loose visa number - YES, can we do anything about it with this admin policy - afaik NO but I am open to hear suggestion and act on it.

[qesehmk]

I understand that your opinions are based on past observations on how CO had acted. I started getting into this game only when my coworkers got GCs and other 2009’ers got stuck.

I was afraid that they will come up with an excuse to waste visas a few months back. When the moment arrived, I got emotional and disappointed. When you believe that you are close to completing the race and rules people suddenly ask you run another few loop’s around the track, it is exhausting.

I think, it would be better for everyone to have a hands-off approach. No amount of predictions and number crunching is going to help. Someone else decides what to do with PDs. Now, I am not even sure whether EB2I / EB3I PDs will move in the next few months. Is it going to be days movement because they don’t have capacity or is it going to be weeks or months?

All EB2I / EB3I folks be mentally prepared for a few years even if you are in 2009 or starting 2010 timeframe. Peace.

It is extremely exhausting mentally and otherwise. I had said this a couple of months back that the numbers will be there but whether they will be used is upto the administration. Both DOS and DHS secretaries are political appointees. The grinch in the white house is their ultimate mafia boss. So I won't venture to predict what's going to happen.

But as per whether backlogged folks can do anything - well why not?? Gather a group of at least a 1000 backlogged folks and go ahead to DHS and DOS headquarters in DC in person to give a joint plea to DOS and DHS to NOT waste visas. I think that will actually work believe it or not. Also copy congress and senate on that.

p.s. - So many backlogged folks work in Boston-DC corridor. You should be able to devote one day of travel for your own sake. Just do it.

[laksinu800]

One thing I fail to understand .. USCIS needs $$ to stop the layoffs. 25k visas are available so move the dates and get $$ and pay the salaries, so all are happy.. why is this not possible

[excalibur123]

we all are here coz we are from backlogged country (majority from India) but keep in mind when CO discuss these things in AILA settings then he is talking about general trends for all categories and not just 1 or 2 country. Based on past check-in I feel EB-5 gets good representation coz of their resource i.e money they have to influence. Just like in any field.

What I took from this check-in is that CO says ROW will not be able to use their quota and if he tries to advance date for new I-485 then there is no processing capacity (Interview, bio-metric etc) so chance of 25K visa wastage is possible. He will be diverting these ROW numbers to EB[1-2]-IC and see how many they can use based on low hanging fruit of renewing security and medical checks. CO has advanced EB1-I by 11 months and EB2-I by whole month hoping to clear as many application he can. If these advancement doesn't generate enough demand, advancement will accelrate, if he gets good demand, these will slow down. But good chance there will be visa wastage, but I don't expect 25k will be puff....

Because of inherent bias EB1 will get preferential treatment then EB2 and then EB3 but we are aware of this pecking order since day-1. In general EB1 candidate has better credential then other 2 so govt agency will prefer those candidate over others. Same for EB5 candidates (see my 1st para last line)

Does it sucks to loose visa number - YES, can we do anything about it with this admin policy - afaik NO but I am open to hear suggestion and act on it.


I understand about EB-1 being given preference, though I hope it is based on actual demand and not something else.

But I am very surprised there was a CO - EB5 meeting. Why it there none for rest of EBs? I don't think this is driven by money power or anything like that as government doesn't work on that basis. May be there is a process (even if it's a paid one) which we are not aware of.

[Ind2009]

I can vouch for the USCIS resource shortage.
Its been 8 days since my case approved but there is no update about card being produced and mailed.
We are seeing this same for other users in both GC and EAD applications where cases have been approved but no updates about card being produced since last week.

However, I do see some hope about improvement in resource availability going forward to process pending cases after I got the below update from USCIS.

USCIS Provides Greater Flexibility in Processing Work Authorization Requests for Asylum Applicants

WASHINGTON—U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services today announced a regulatory change to provide greater flexibility in the processing of initial employment authorization documents (commonly called EADs) for asylum applicants by removing the burdensome and agency-imposed 30-day time frame. The final rule becomes effective on Aug. 21.

This change provides USCIS sufficient time to receive, screen and process applications and to address national security and fraud concerns, maintain technological advances in identity verification and further deter those who may attempt to defraud the legal immigration system. It also gives the agency flexibility to shift limited adjudicator resources as needed. In the past, the agency has been forced to divert resources away from other types of benefit requests to meet the 30-day time frame.

The 30-day time frame was implemented by regulation more than 20 years ago. Since then, filings of asylum applications have spiked and USCIS has developed additional critical background screening and vetting procedures to reduce fraud and identify threats to national security and public safety.

“Removing this self-imposed internal processing time frame gives USCIS the operational flexibility to conduct the kind of systematic vetting and identity verification procedures the public expects from an agency charged with protecting national security,” said USCIS Deputy Director for Policy Joseph Edlow. “A key priority for USCIS is to safeguard the integrity of our nation’s legal immigration system from those who seek to exploit or abuse it. This change will reduce opportunities for fraud and protect the security-related processes we undertake for each employment authorization application, thereby increasing the integrity of immigration benefits.”

The rule also removes the requirement that asylum applicants submit their work authorization renewal requests to USCIS 90 days before the expiration of their current employment authorization. This change reduces confusion and clarifies that asylum applicants can file their renewal work authorization applications up to 180 days before the expiration date, minimizing potential gaps in employment authorization.

For more information, read the final rule published in the Federal Register on June 22.

[monsieur]

How different is it right now than a usual processing year wherein they have been allocating same number of visas if not more?! What should be adding to the productivity instead are lack of interview related tasks, no extensive application processing, work from home privileges, furlough not announced officially...!!They should have all the time to process those backlogged cases that CO himself clarified are low hanging fruits!!
The resource crunch theory is not sitting well with me given the current circumstances.We are the scapegoats unfortunately in the grand scheme of things.

COVID shutdown came all of sudden, no one was expecting country wide shutdowns. Every company/offices are re-orienting/re-adjusting on fly with WFH situation. Considering these are govt funded so inefficiency compared to pvt sector will be high. On top we have administration which wants to delay/deny visa and this situation is giving them excuse.

My hope is there is new admin later this year and they reverse these restrictive policies. But pragmatic in me knows, it will take time to implement such immi friendly policies same as this admin took 2 yrs to reach to this point.

[Zenzone]

I understand that your opinions are based on past observations on how CO had acted. I started getting into this game only when my coworkers got GCs and other 2009’ers got stuck.

I was afraid that they will come up with an excuse to waste visas a few months back. When the moment arrived, I got emotional and disappointed. When you believe that you are close to completing the race and rules people suddenly ask you run another few loop’s around the track, it is exhausting.

I think, it would be better for everyone to have a hands-off approach. No amount of predictions and number crunching is going to help. Someone else decides what to do with PDs. Now, I am not even sure whether EB2I / EB3I PDs will move in the next few months. Is it going to be days movement because they don’t have capacity or is it going to be weeks or months?

All EB2I / EB3I folks be mentally prepared for a few years even if you are in 2009 or starting 2010 timeframe. Peace.

I understand your frustration. I do believe that next two bulletins will bring faster movement for EB2I. With one month movement in this bulletin CO has begun testing the waters. Also, its been LONG since I stopped asking how come all 2008ers and many 2009ers are even citizens and we are still having these conversations. I don't think it brings any positivity by hangin on to the "Why me" thinking. Didn't mean to be preachy at the same time couldn't hold myself back from saying this. Please take it or leave it. Good Luck!

[Zenzone]

we all are here coz we are from backlogged country (majority from India) but keep in mind when CO discuss these things in AILA settings then he is talking about general trends for all categories and not just 1 or 2 country. Based on past check-in I feel EB-5 gets good representation coz of their resource i.e money they have to influence. Just like in any field.

What I took from this check-in is that CO says ROW will not be able to use their quota and if he tries to advance date for new I-485 then there is no processing capacity (Interview, bio-metric etc) so chance of 25K visa wastage is possible. He will be diverting these ROW numbers to EB[1-2]-IC and see how many they can use based on low hanging fruit of renewing security and medical checks. CO has advanced EB1-I by 11 months and EB2-I by whole month hoping to clear as many application he can. If these advancement doesn't generate enough demand, advancement will accelrate, if he gets good demand, these will slow down. But good chance there will be visa wastage, but I don't expect 25k will be puff....

Because of inherent bias EB1 will get preferential treatment then EB2 and then EB3 but we are aware of this pecking order since day-1. In general EB1 candidate has better credential then other 2 so govt agency will prefer those candidate over others. Same for EB5 candidates (see my 1st para last line)

Does it sucks to loose visa number - YES, can we do anything about it with this admin policy - afaik NO but I am open to hear suggestion and act on it.


Second that. Next two bulletins will tell us his true intentions though. If he had no intent to give it to EBI I don't think the current advancements could have even been possible.

[NJMavarick]

we all are here coz we are from backlogged country (majority from India) but keep in mind when CO discuss these things in AILA settings then he is talking about general trends for all categories and not just 1 or 2 country. Based on past check-in I feel EB-5 gets good representation coz of their resource i.e money they have to influence. Just like in any field.

What I took from this check-in is that CO says ROW will not be able to use their quota and if he tries to advance date for new I-485 then there is no processing capacity (Interview, bio-metric etc) so chance of 25K visa wastage is possible. He will be diverting these ROW numbers to EB[1-2]-IC and see how many they can use based on low hanging fruit of renewing security and medical checks. CO has advanced EB1-I by 11 months and EB2-I by whole month hoping to clear as many application he can. If these advancement doesn't generate enough demand, advancement will accelrate, if he gets good demand, these will slow down. But good chance there will be visa wastage, but I don't expect 25k will be puff....

Because of inherent bias EB1 will get preferential treatment then EB2 and then EB3 but we are aware of this pecking order since day-1. In general EB1 candidate has better credential then other 2 so govt agency will prefer those candidate over others. Same for EB5 candidates (see my 1st para last line)

Does it sucks to loose visa number - YES, can we do anything about it with this admin policy - afaik NO but I am open to hear suggestion and act on it.

That is a good and different way of interpreting it! Well laid out

[rabp77]

we all are here coz we are from backlogged country (majority from India) but keep in mind when CO discuss these things in AILA settings then he is talking about general trends for all categories and not just 1 or 2 country. Based on past check-in I feel EB-5 gets good representation coz of their resource i.e money they have to influence. Just like in any field.

What I took from this check-in is that CO says ROW will not be able to use their quota and if he tries to advance date for new I-485 then there is no processing capacity (Interview, bio-metric etc) so chance of 25K visa wastage is possible. He will be diverting these ROW numbers to EB[1-2]-IC and see how many they can use based on low hanging fruit of renewing security and medical checks. CO has advanced EB1-I by 11 months and EB2-I by whole month hoping to clear as many application he can. If these advancement doesn't generate enough demand, advancement will accelrate, if he gets good demand, these will slow down. But good chance there will be visa wastage, but I don't expect 25k will be puff....

Because of inherent bias EB1 will get preferential treatment then EB2 and then EB3 but we are aware of this pecking order since day-1. In general EB1 candidate has better credential then other 2 so govt agency will prefer those candidate over others. Same for EB5 candidates (see my 1st para last line)

Does it sucks to loose visa number - YES, can we do anything about it with this admin policy - afaik NO but I am open to hear suggestion and act on it.

If there is sufficient pre-adjudicated cases, will they not spill over unused visa number to categories where there are pre-adjudicated cases, before visa number are wasted ? So having a back log of pre-adjudicated cases, and at the same time wasting visa numbers does not seem to make sense. I dont see the point in having separate "filing date", and final action dates, if visas still go wasted. As i saw it, the whole point of this two-date system was to have a back-log of pre-adjudicated cases, so that numbers are not wasted in a situation such as this. Do any of you know what the benefit of having these two dates is, if we still end up wasting visa numbers?

[EB32010]

If there is sufficient pre-adjudicated cases, will they not spill over unused visa number to categories where there are pre-adjudicated cases, before visa number are wasted ? So having a back log of pre-adjudicated cases, and at the same time wasting visa numbers does not seem to make sense. I dont see the point in having separate "filing date", and final action dates, if visas still go wasted. As i saw it, the whole point of this two-date system was to have a back-log of pre-adjudicated cases, so that numbers are not wasted in a situation such as this. Do any of you know what the benefit of having these two dates is, if we still end up wasting visa numbers?

Exactly. As per my understanding, as long as EB1I is backlogged there will not be any vertical SO to EB2 no matter how many pre-adjudicated cased EB2 have. Am I correct?

[jimmys]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

July monthly check in with CO. He's stating there could be 25K visas wasted in FY 20 in EB category. And, FY21 EB count could be over 200K.


Visa Bulletin Predictions for Employment-Based Preference Categories
EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico Philippines and Vietnam) remains current in July and should remain so through the end of this fiscal year.

In July, the final action date for EB-1 China advances one week from August 15, 2017 to August 22, 2017. There are currently almost 2,000 EB-1 China adjustment of status (AOS) cases pending at USCIS. EB-1 India again advances significantly, moving forward eleven months from June 8, 2016 to May 8, 2017.

This rapid advancement is made possible by the infusion of otherwise unused numbers falling up from EB-5 and the lack of significant EB-1 Worldwide demand. Charlie is consulting with USCIS regarding their processing capacity and to determine how much of the outstanding demand is close to completion in order to understand what can realistically be approved before the end of the fiscal year.

EB-2 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) remains current in July and should do so through FY2020. EB-2 China advancement slows to one week, moving modestly from November 1, 2015 to November 8, 2015. In contrast, EB-2 India advances more rapidly by three weeks, from June 12, 2009 to July 8, 2009. As with EB-1 China and EB-1 India, there is a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in these categories and relatively low rest of world demand.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India will certainly exceed their per country limits this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to reaching its worldwide limits.

EB-3 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) and EB-3 Worldwide Other Workers (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) which advanced more than ten months in June, advances at a significant yet slower five month pace in July 2020 from November 8, 2017 to April 15, 2018.

Similar to EB-1 India, there is a large amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-3 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam), making it more reliable that the advancements will result in visa issuances this fiscal year. However, as also noted above, this category is much closer to reaching its annual limit than the other categories.

EB-3 China advancement slows to one week in July from June 15, 2016 to June 22, 2016. EB-3 China Other Workers starts to advance again in July by one week from July 15, 2008 to July 22, 2008. As EB-2 China and EB-3 China both advance by one week in July, the spread between them remains the same, with EB-3 China’s final action date holding at 7.5 months ahead of EB-2 China. EB-3 India and EB-3 India Other Workers both advance two months in July from April 1, 2009 to June 1, 2009.

EB-4 Worldwide (including China, India, Philippines, and Vietnam) remains current in July. EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras advances 1.5 months from December 15, 2016 to February 1, 2017 and is likely to hold at this date through the remainder of the fiscal year. EB-4 Mexico advances one week–from June 8, 2018 to June 15, 2018. Members should continue to watch EB-4 Mexico for potential movement. It is too early to predict what will happen in the remaining months of FY2020.

EB-5 India (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) becomes current in July and will remain so through FY2020. EB-5 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico and Philippines), Regional and Non-Regional Centers, remains current in July and will remain so through this fiscal year as well. EB-5 China (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) advances one week in July from July 15, 2015 to July 22, 2015. EB-5 Vietnam (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) advances three weeks in July from April 22, 2017 to May 15, 2017.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Q & A
QUESTION: In last month’s Check In, Charlie said that “it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020.” If that is the case, why is Charlie not accelerating the Visa Bulletin with the hope of attracting as many approvals as possible?

ANSWER: That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use.

Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS is diminished due to the pandemic. Currently, immigrant visa processing at consular posts abroad is limited to “mission critical” processing, which is defined at the discretion of the post and which is often limited to adjudicating cases based on compelling reasons, such as age-outs.

Immigrant visa processing at USCIS has also been constrained due to the pandemic, but their capacity has been much greater than that of the consular posts. For example, in May 2020, USCIS used over 3,600 numbers across the employment-based first and second preference categories. This contrasts with number usage in excess of 6,000 for the same categories in May 2019.

The premise that dramatically advancing the Final Action Dates will result in full (or closer to full) number usage is flawed. The agencies’ (and State’s) diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase actual number usage this fiscal year. Additionally, such abrupt movements would likely result in corrective action in the form of retrogression, which should be avoided.

The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Given USCIS’s potential processing capacity and the current status of these cases, it may be realistic to expect that USCIS will be able to finalize as many employment-based cases as its capacity allows. In contrast, while there is significant demand for EB-5 China numbers awaiting processing in Guangzhou, there is no pre-adjudicated pending demand for EB-5 China numbers at USCIS, and at this time USCIS’s data does not demonstrate significant USCIS demand for that category.

There is no data to indicate the existence of significant EB-5 China USCIS demand that would warrant a more rapid advancement of the Final Action Date in this category. As it stands, this category has advanced much more rapidly than I would have thought possible earlier in the fiscal year. Last October, I expected the best case scenario for the FY2020 EB-5 China Final Action Date to reach March 8, 2015.

However, I have been pleased that the data has subsequently supported advancing the date far into the summer to July 22, 2015. As there remains a significant amount of pending consular demand and no USCIS pending demand, sweeping advancements in this category are not supported by the data at this time. However, as the situation is constantly being monitored, future changes cannot be ruled out.

Although many employment-based preference categories are unlikely to reach their annual limits, there are two categories which are close to doing so. When a final action date was imposed for EB-3 Worldwide earlier this fiscal year, it signaled that this category was close to reaching its annual limit. Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.

QUESTION: Also, does he have an estimate as to how many visas they would be short in FY2020?

ANSWER: The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able to return to something approaching normal processing.

Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity, there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.

Visa Bulletin Predictions Worldwide EB-3

In FY2020, we already enjoyed the second highest employment-based annual limit in recent memory—156K, which places the current per country limit at almost 11K. I expect that in FY2021 there will be over 200K employment-based numbers available—which is the highest number I can recall ever having in a fiscal year–and which translates to a 14K per country limit—a 21.5% increase over FY2020.

Effectively, any unused employment-based numbers in FY2020 will be more than compensated for next year, and assuming the pandemic subsides and processing returns to normal, these excess numbers will create the possibility of significant advancement in EB-1 China, EB-1 India and EB-5 China, as well as the possibility of EB-3 Worldwide becoming current. Keep in mind that the next fiscal year is just over 3 months away.

[jimmys]

I don't know if I have to be sad about 25K visas wasted in FY 20 or getting more visas in FY 21. With USCIS reduced functioning, covid-19 and pent up interview demand, I have a feeling more EB visas will be wasted next year as well.

[Zenzone]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

July monthly check in with CO. He's stating there could be 25K visas wasted in FY 20 in EB category. And, FY21 EB count could be over 200K.


Visa Bulletin Predictions for Employment-Based Preference Categories
EB-1 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico Philippines and Vietnam) remains current in July and should remain so through the end of this fiscal year.

In July, the final action date for EB-1 China advances one week from August 15, 2017 to August 22, 2017. There are currently almost 2,000 EB-1 China adjustment of status (AOS) cases pending at USCIS. EB-1 India again advances significantly, moving forward eleven months from June 8, 2016 to May 8, 2017.

This rapid advancement is made possible by the infusion of otherwise unused numbers falling up from EB-5 and the lack of significant EB-1 Worldwide demand. Charlie is consulting with USCIS regarding their processing capacity and to determine how much of the outstanding demand is close to completion in order to understand what can realistically be approved before the end of the fiscal year.

EB-2 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) remains current in July and should do so through FY2020. EB-2 China advancement slows to one week, moving modestly from November 1, 2015 to November 8, 2015. In contrast, EB-2 India advances more rapidly by three weeks, from June 12, 2009 to July 8, 2009. As with EB-1 China and EB-1 India, there is a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in these categories and relatively low rest of world demand.

EB-2 China and EB-2 India will certainly exceed their per country limits this year. The open question is how close the EB-2 category will be to reaching its worldwide limits.

EB-3 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) and EB-3 Worldwide Other Workers (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam) which advanced more than ten months in June, advances at a significant yet slower five month pace in July 2020 from November 8, 2017 to April 15, 2018.

Similar to EB-1 India, there is a large amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-3 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico, Philippines, and Vietnam), making it more reliable that the advancements will result in visa issuances this fiscal year. However, as also noted above, this category is much closer to reaching its annual limit than the other categories.

EB-3 China advancement slows to one week in July from June 15, 2016 to June 22, 2016. EB-3 China Other Workers starts to advance again in July by one week from July 15, 2008 to July 22, 2008. As EB-2 China and EB-3 China both advance by one week in July, the spread between them remains the same, with EB-3 China’s final action date holding at 7.5 months ahead of EB-2 China. EB-3 India and EB-3 India Other Workers both advance two months in July from April 1, 2009 to June 1, 2009.

EB-4 Worldwide (including China, India, Philippines, and Vietnam) remains current in July. EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras advances 1.5 months from December 15, 2016 to February 1, 2017 and is likely to hold at this date through the remainder of the fiscal year. EB-4 Mexico advances one week–from June 8, 2018 to June 15, 2018. Members should continue to watch EB-4 Mexico for potential movement. It is too early to predict what will happen in the remaining months of FY2020.

EB-5 India (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) becomes current in July and will remain so through FY2020. EB-5 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico and Philippines), Regional and Non-Regional Centers, remains current in July and will remain so through this fiscal year as well. EB-5 China (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) advances one week in July from July 15, 2015 to July 22, 2015. EB-5 Vietnam (Regional and Non-Regional Centers) advances three weeks in July from April 22, 2017 to May 15, 2017.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Q & A
QUESTION: In last month’s Check In, Charlie said that “it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020.” If that is the case, why is Charlie not accelerating the Visa Bulletin with the hope of attracting as many approvals as possible?

ANSWER: That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use.

Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS is diminished due to the pandemic. Currently, immigrant visa processing at consular posts abroad is limited to “mission critical” processing, which is defined at the discretion of the post and which is often limited to adjudicating cases based on compelling reasons, such as age-outs.

Immigrant visa processing at USCIS has also been constrained due to the pandemic, but their capacity has been much greater than that of the consular posts. For example, in May 2020, USCIS used over 3,600 numbers across the employment-based first and second preference categories. This contrasts with number usage in excess of 6,000 for the same categories in May 2019.

The premise that dramatically advancing the Final Action Dates will result in full (or closer to full) number usage is flawed. The agencies’ (and State’s) diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase actual number usage this fiscal year. Additionally, such abrupt movements would likely result in corrective action in the form of retrogression, which should be avoided.

The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Given USCIS’s potential processing capacity and the current status of these cases, it may be realistic to expect that USCIS will be able to finalize as many employment-based cases as its capacity allows. In contrast, while there is significant demand for EB-5 China numbers awaiting processing in Guangzhou, there is no pre-adjudicated pending demand for EB-5 China numbers at USCIS, and at this time USCIS’s data does not demonstrate significant USCIS demand for that category.

There is no data to indicate the existence of significant EB-5 China USCIS demand that would warrant a more rapid advancement of the Final Action Date in this category. As it stands, this category has advanced much more rapidly than I would have thought possible earlier in the fiscal year. Last October, I expected the best case scenario for the FY2020 EB-5 China Final Action Date to reach March 8, 2015.

However, I have been pleased that the data has subsequently supported advancing the date far into the summer to July 22, 2015. As there remains a significant amount of pending consular demand and no USCIS pending demand, sweeping advancements in this category are not supported by the data at this time. However, as the situation is constantly being monitored, future changes cannot be ruled out.

Although many employment-based preference categories are unlikely to reach their annual limits, there are two categories which are close to doing so. When a final action date was imposed for EB-3 Worldwide earlier this fiscal year, it signaled that this category was close to reaching its annual limit. Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.

QUESTION: Also, does he have an estimate as to how many visas they would be short in FY2020?

ANSWER: The processing limitations resulting from the COVID-19 related issues continue to impact number use under the various numerically controlled visa annual limits. At this time, it is estimated that there could easily be 25,000 unused numbers under FY2020 employment-based annual limit. That estimate depends largely on the extent that processing is able to return to something approaching normal processing.

Although we are unlikely to use all of the employment-based visa numbers this fiscal year given the current family-sponsored processing capacity, there is a silver lining. The law requires that the number of unused family-sponsored visas will be added to the FY2021 employment-based annual limit.

Visa Bulletin Predictions Worldwide EB-3

In FY2020, we already enjoyed the second highest employment-based annual limit in recent memory—156K, which places the current per country limit at almost 11K. I expect that in FY2021 there will be over 200K employment-based numbers available—which is the highest number I can recall ever having in a fiscal year–and which translates to a 14K per country limit—a 21.5% increase over FY2020.

Effectively, any unused employment-based numbers in FY2020 will be more than compensated for next year, and assuming the pandemic subsides and processing returns to normal, these excess numbers will create the possibility of significant advancement in EB-1 China, EB-1 India and EB-5 China, as well as the possibility of EB-3 Worldwide becoming current. Keep in mind that the next fiscal year is just over 3 months away.

—-/—————————————————-

Why is he sayin jus 14 K per country is he still
going by the per country allocation and not making any forward looking statements on the horizontal SO chances?

[Spectator]

—-/—————————————————-

Why is he sayin jus 14 K per country is he still
going by the per country allocation and not making any forward looking statements on the horizontal SO chances?

The 14k relates to the 7% per Country limit based on 200k EB visas being available in FY2021.

200,000 * 7% = 14,000 per Country limit.

EB1 ---- 4,004
EB2 ---- 4,004
EB3 ---- 4,004
EB4 ------ 994
EB5 ------ 994

Total - 14,000

Any horizontal SO would be in addition to that number.

[Zenzone]

The 14k relates to the 7% per Country limit based on 200k EB visas being available in FY2021.

200,000 * 7% = 14,000 per Country limit.

EB1 ---- 4,004
EB2 ---- 4,004
EB3 ---- 4,004
EB4 ------ 994
EB5 ------ 994

Total - 14,000

Any horizontal SO would be in addition to that number.

Bottomline is accepting the fact that there will be visa wastage this fiscal and potentially next fiscal we should consider ourselves lucky if EB2 and EB3 clear even May 2010. That’s the present reality and probably the most optimistic scenario.

[EB32010]

Bottomline is accepting the fact that there will be visa wastage this fiscal and potentially next fiscal we should consider ourselves lucky if EB2 and EB3 clear even May 2010. That’s the present reality and probably the most optimistic scenario.
You expect EB2 and EB3 to reach May 2010(if we get 60k SO from FB) by end of next FY even in optimistic scenario? I will do backflip if that happens.

[android09]

What happens if the President extends the Apr 22 ban on FB consular green card processing further until Dec 2020? That increases the spill over further doesn’t it ?

[Zenzone]

You expect EB2 and EB3 to reach May 2010(if we get 60k SO from FB) by end of next FY even in optimistic scenario? I will do backflip if that happens.
Ha! I assumed the ban is extended till end of this fiscal and simply allocated the potential 7% allocation. Thats’s all. Of course I assumed the wastage on. 7% is minimal (hence called it optimistic!).

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

The reason for the potential spillover is Covid and the reason for slow processing is also Covid. Does it not feel like these two will end up canceling out and we will still be in the same boat beginning next FY2021?

[NJMavarick]

The reason for the potential spillover is Covid and the reason for slow processing is also Covid. Does it not feel like these two will end up canceling out and we will still be in the same boat beginning next FY2021?

It could be very likely! CO is known to be conservative and add to that the shortage of resources on the USCIS side and the net result is dates not moving a lot. While we are all hoping for EB1-3 ROW to be current and expecting a massive SO, CO is thinking in a completely different way. It seems he will first move dates based on the bare minimum 7% allocation and then perhaps move the dates gradually which for sure will lead to visa wastage.

The FB ban will get extended for the next 3 months and if that does happen, we are looking at 100K+ SO for EB. How will that apply and how much the dates will move is anyone's guess.

[Zenzone]

It could be very likely! CO is known to be conservative and add to that the shortage of resources on the USCIS side and the net result is dates not moving a lot. While we are all hoping for EB1-3 ROW to be current and expecting a massive SO, CO is thinking in a completely different way. It seems he will first move dates based on the bare minimum 7% allocation and then perhaps move the dates gradually which for sure will lead to visa wastage.

The FB ban will get extended for the next 3 months and if that does happen, we are looking at 100K+ SO for EB. How will that apply and how much the dates will move is anyone's guess.

Even if he allocates the 7% (adjusted for FB SO) you are talking about ~23K visas to play with. If that happens, I would consider that pretty optimistic. This also assumes all of horizontal SO is wasted.

[1312011_eb2I]

CO can always move DOF , same way what he did in 2015. It will give us some confidence otherwise there is no light

[NJMavarick]

Even if he allocates the 7% (adjusted for FB SO) you are talking about ~23K visas to play with. If that happens, I would consider that pretty optimistic. This also assumes all of horizontal SO is wasted.

How did you come to 23K~ number? I consider the 7% as the bare minimum. If 100K SO then EBI1-3 will get ~ 4.8K minimum (7% of 240K and then 28.6% of the #). This is not considering the Horizontal or Vertical SO that EBI is slated to get considering EB1-2 ROW is current. Not to mention that EB3 ROW will also get current.

[1312011_eb2I]

How can we ensure visa numbers are not wasted and allocated to backlogged countries? otherwise it will be a never ending chase.can we submit a request to AILA or USCIS or even DOS?

[srimurthy]

How did you come to 23K~ number? I consider the 7% as the bare minimum. If 100K SO then EBI1-3 will get ~ 4.8K minimum (7% of 240K and then 28.6% of the #). This is not considering the Horizontal or Vertical SO that EBI is slated to get considering EB1-2 ROW is current. Not to mention that EB3 ROW will also get current.
No matter what comes across the situation or reasoning can still be the same as this year, saying not enough resources to work and approve the GCs from USCIS. It is such a pity and sorry state of affairs that even when we have so many years backlog and also so many filed applications we still see a lot of wastage.

[android09]

Exactly. As per my understanding, as long as EB1I is backlogged there will not be any vertical SO to EB2 no matter how many pre-adjudicated cased EB2 have. Am I correct?

I dont believe so. EB1, EB2,EB3 will each get 28.6% of the spillover. If the spillover is 60,000 then each category will get 17160 green cards. Of that number, each country gets 7%(or 1200 odd). If EB2ROW is current, then that entire 17160 would come to EB2I plus the regular quota of 2800 green cards for the calendar year. If EB3ROW becomes current, then EB3I being the most backlogged gets the rest from EB3Row. EB1 will get the vertical spill over from EB4 and EB5 if they are not used. If EB1 is current as well, then the spillover will fall to EB2.

[excalibur123]

How can we ensure visa numbers are not wasted and allocated to backlogged countries? otherwise it will be a never ending chase.can we submit a request to AILA or USCIS or even DOS?

One way is to talk to CO to understand his reasoning and present EB viewpoints. He already participates in AILA check-ins and IIUSA EB-5 webinars.

So either join AILA check-ins or create some EB event where he is invited.

[idliman]

I dont believe so. EB1, EB2,EB3 will each get 28.6% of the spillover. If the spillover is 60,000 then each category will get 17160 green cards. Of that number, each country gets 7%(or 1200 odd). If EB2ROW is current, then that entire 17160 would come to EB2I plus the regular quota of 2800 green cards for the calendar year. If EB3ROW becomes current, then EB3I being the most backlogged gets the rest from EB3Row. EB1 will get the vertical spill over from EB4 and EB5 if they are not used. If EB1 is current as well, then the spillover will fall to EB2.
10,000*28.6%*7% = 200.2 visas.
For regular annual cap of 140,000, EB1I / EB2I & EB3I each gets 2802.8 visas.
For 60,000 spillover, total is 200,000; EB1I / EB2I / EB3I each gets 4004 visas.
Every 10,000 additional spillover adds 200.2 visas.

[adisaraf]

My PD is now current in the July 2020 bulletin (EB2-I). I filed my I-485 (along with medicals) back in Sept 2015 and have been with same employer and have been working on EAD/AP since. What should I expect next? I have been told that I may not have to go for an interview. However, I will need to re-submit my medicals. How long till I get the precious GC in hand?

[imdeng]

No interview, yes for medical, might still get a 485-Supp-J request. Once you respond to the RFE - and assuming you are still current then (you should be) - I would expect 4-8 weeks after that.


My PD is now current in the July 2020 bulletin (EB2-I). I filed my I-485 (along with medicals) back in Sept 2015 and have been with same employer and have been working on EAD/AP since. What should I expect next? I have been told that I may not have to go for an interview. However, I will need to re-submit my medicals. How long till I get the precious GC in hand?

[usvisas]

does anyone know the exact details of how FB to EB spillover works in theory or as in law?

does the total unused number from previous year, gets equally distributed to all EB categories at the beginning of next year?

[rocketfast]

does anyone know the exact details of how FB to EB spillover works in theory or as in law?

does the total unused number from previous year, gets equally distributed to all EB categories at the beginning of next year?

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62399&viewfull=1#post62399

[Zenzone]

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62399&viewfull=1#post62399
Thanks for forwarding the link. I was looking to find this to answer the same allocation question that was raised. Spec crushes it as always!

[creados]

If I am not mistaken spillover/spill down is not subject to annual 7% caps. In the past Eb2 India would receive close to 20k visas from spilldown from Eb1. I believe the spillover is applied to the most backlogged countries, how that is applied is left to the government to determine.

[1312011_eb2I]

Any predictions on SO to eb2-3 due to this?

[monsieur]

As per the reports out, the ban on immigrant visas has been extended until end of 2020 and will include guest workers like H-1b, H-4, L-1, H-2Bs, J-1.
Looks like more spillover to EB next FY.

If we survive this systematic purge :D

Jokes apart, these are scary times. Stay safe out there from covid + immigration traps.

Someone posted COVID giveth, COVID taketh so staying on same boat - I feel like that will depend on timing when this disease spread comes under control or new normal of work for USCIS is established. Lets say USCIS achieves normalcy around Jan then there are 9 months to spread windfall but if it happens later part of year then there will be handful of months to distribute windfall and it will be wasted.

Based on data shared by Spec, since past few years handful of numbers where allocated to different categories, hopefully patterns stays same and wastage of 1000s doesn't happen.

[EB32010]

As per the reports out, the ban on immigrant visas has been extended until end of 2020 and will include guest workers like H-1b, H-4, L-1, H-2Bs, J-1.
Looks like more spillover to EB next FY.
More visas for them to waste next year.

There is no excuse now for CO not to move DF dates.

[creados]

10,000*28.6%*7% = 200.2 visas.
For regular annual cap of 140,000, EB1I / EB2I & EB3I each gets 2802.8 visas.
For 60,000 spillover, total is 200,000; EB1I / EB2I / EB3I each gets 4004 visas.
Every 10,000 additional spillover adds 200.2 visas.

I don't think for spillover/spilldown the 7% cap applies. Hence in the past, EB2 would get 20k spilldown visas and was moving fast. I think the spilldown over and above the regular 7% can be applied to the most backlogged country.

[NJMavarick]

If we survive this systematic purge :D

Jokes apart, these are scary times. Stay safe out there from covid + immigration traps.

Someone posted COVID giveth, COVID taketh so staying on same boat - I feel like that will depend on timing when this disease spread comes under control or new normal of work for USCIS is established. Lets say USCIS achieves normalcy around Jan then there are 9 months to spread windfall but if it happens later part of year then there will be handful of months to distribute windfall and it will be wasted.

Based on data shared by Spec, since past few years handful of numbers where allocated to different categories, hopefully patterns stays same and wastage of 1000s doesn't happen.

Visas will be wasted for sure and based on the SO if logically the dates should move 1 year, then CO will perhaps only move 6 months taking into account USCIS resource shortage and his conservative approach in moving the dates.

[vedu]

Thanks for forwarding the link. I was looking to find this to answer the same allocation question that was raised. Spec crushes it as always!

After revisiting Spec's post from last year and considering the current situation, it seems EB2I applicants up to April 2010 who have already filed their I-485 applications will not face visa availability issues any more no matter how many visas are wasted each year from now on. The wait times for these applications going forward will be decided by how fast USCIS can process this inventory. There are 10,727 applicants during July 2009 to April 2010 based on the most recent available I-486 inventory report. Some more applicants will be added to this number as the dates move forward. But the spillover will be so big and the demand from ROW employment based categories will be so subdued next year due to recession, that even with wastage, there will be no shortage of visas. It all comes down to how fast they can process the inventory now. Gone are the days with 2 days movement per visa bulletin for EB2I. Hopefully the most pessimistic Spec will also agree with this thought process!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

We should not have to wait until the end of the year to know what's going to happen next; just until the night of Nov 3. :D

[march1612]

Does EO effect Travel on EAD/ Advance Parole document? My EAD & Advance parole card is issued in 2019 and valid until 2021.

I have flight tomorrow from India . Kindly advise thank you

[smuggymba]

My EAD/AP is under renewal so does that mean we're not going to get renewals and if we get...can AP be used to travel.

[EB32010]

Does EO effect Travel on EAD/ Advance Parole document? My EAD & Advance parole card is issued in 2019 and valid until 2021.

I have flight tomorrow from India . Kindly advise thank you
You are absolutely fine. Have a safe flight back!

[jimmys]

IMO, it doesn't matter how many visas we get from FB for FY 21. What matters is how many new cases USCIS can process for AOS applicants in FY 21. The already interviewed cases for EB-3 and no-interview requirement cases for EB-2 will soon evaporate. Besides that they need new I-485 filings to use the new supply. Even with full fledged USCIS staff, they won't be able to match the supply. Forget about reduced USCIS staff to fulfill the total supply along with interview requirements. The filing dates for Oct 1,2020 is the important one. If that doesn't cross 2010, I don't see a way USCIS is going to use the new supply for the year 2021. 25K visa wastage in FY 20 will turn into something like 30-40K visa wastage in FY 21.

[qesehmk]

Does EO effect Travel on EAD/ Advance Parole document? My EAD & Advance parole card is issued in 2019 and valid until 2021.

I have flight tomorrow from India . Kindly advise thank you
Wish you a safe flight. Once you arrive, can you please write down your experience in term of travel in Covid-situation? Somebody I know is travelling back in a few days and will appreciate your notes. All the best.

[march1612]

Wish you a safe flight. Once you arrive, can you please write down your experience in term of travel in Covid-situation? Somebody I know is travelling back in a few days and will appreciate your notes. All the best.

qesehmk,

Sure I will share my experience

Sorry for repeating the question I have flight tomorrow

Can you confirm if Advance Parole document is eligible for traveling back to the US with new EO?

My EAD & Advance parole card is issued in 2019 and valid until 2021.

[Zenzone]

Cudnt agree more! It cud actually be 30K visas per category in EB!

[qesehmk]

qesehmk,

Sure I will share my experience

Sorry for repeating the question I have flight tomorrow

Can you confirm if Advance Parole document is eligible for traveling back to the US with new EO?

My EAD & Advance parole card is issued in 2019 and valid until 2021.

somebody else already responded that you are good to go. I am not as current on latest things on AP ... but I don't see any reason why your AP is not valid. You should be able to enter without problems.

[Zenzone]

I third that! There is no problem for existing AP holders as a matter of fact existing H1B holders as long as the visa stamp is valid.

[abcx13]

I third that! There is no problem for existing AP holders as a matter of fact existing H1B holders as long as the visa stamp is valid.



Yes, I am stuck. :( Have valid renewed petition but expired visa stamp.

[Spectator]

qesehmk,

Sure I will share my experience

Sorry for repeating the question I have flight tomorrow

Can you confirm if Advance Parole document is eligible for traveling back to the US with new EO?

My EAD & Advance parole card is issued in 2019 and valid until 2021.

From the proclamation (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspending-entry-aliens-present-risk-u-s-labor-market-following-coronavirus-outbreak/):



Sec. 3. Scope of Suspension and Limitation on Entry.

(a) The suspension and limitation on entry pursuant to section 2 of this proclamation shall apply only to any alien who:

(i) is outside the United States on the effective date of this proclamation;

(ii) does not have a nonimmigrant visa that is valid on the effective date of this proclamation; and

(iii) does not have an official travel document other than a visa (such as a transportation letter, an appropriate boarding foil, or an advance parole document) that is valid on the effective date of this proclamation or issued on any date thereafter that permits him or her to travel to the United States and seek entry or admission.


Sec. 7. Effective Date.

Except as provided in section 1 of this proclamation, this proclamation is effective at 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 24, 2020.

You must determine whether you fit the exceptions outlined in the proclamation. I encourage you to read it in full.

[march1612]

From the proclamation (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspending-entry-aliens-present-risk-u-s-labor-market-following-coronavirus-outbreak/):




You must determine whether you fit the exceptions outlined in the proclamation. I encourage you to read it in full.

Spectator,

I have EAD and Advance Parole combo card valid from September 2019- September 2021.

Let me know if this meets the proclamation requirements?

[vedu]

IMO, it doesn't matter how many visas we get from FB for FY 21. What matters is how many new cases USCIS can process for AOS applicants in FY 21. The already interviewed cases for EB-3 and no-interview requirement cases for EB-2 will soon evaporate. Besides that they need new I-485 filings to use the new supply. Even with full fledged USCIS staff, they won't be able to match the supply. Forget about reduced USCIS staff to fulfill the total supply along with interview requirements. The filing dates for Oct 1,2020 is the important one. If that doesn't cross 2010, I don't see a way USCIS is going to use the new supply for the year 2021. 25K visa wastage in FY 20 will turn into something like 30-40K visa wastage in FY 21.

I am willing to forget the entire spillover from FB. EB2 ROW demand will be very subdued next year giving EB2I a good horizontal spill over. Also, when you say USCIS will waste 30-40K visas in FY 21 because the agency wasted 25K visas this year due to lock down, you are expecting another lock down next year (?) No matter how many visas will be wasted next year, I am still thinking EB2I up to April 2010 is in the clear. If not, then FY 2022 will certainly take care of the currently pending inventory. So, the wait is no longer than 1-2 years now. And while we are waiting, enjoy monthly visa bulletins movement, some times two weeks, sometimes a month and you keep getting closer and closer! It's going to be fun! More restrictive Trump EO is actually a good news for people waiting for their green cards for a decade now.

[Spectator]

Hello Spectator,

My question is also related to the EB visa carry over. Is it possible for EB visas to be used for the next FY. If yes, which part of INA is this mentioned?

The answer is no, bar congress amending the INA (as the HEROES House Bill seeks to do).

The INA specifies that any unused EB visas in a FY are used in the calculation of the next FY allocation for FB.

This is spelt out in INA 201 (c) or US Code 8 U.S.C. 1151 (c)


(c) Worldwide level of family-sponsored immigrants

(1)(A) The worldwide level of family-sponsored immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is, subject to subparagraph (B), equal to-

(i) 480,000, minus

(ii) the sum of the number computed under paragraph (2) and the number computed under paragraph (4), plus

(iii) the number (if any) computed under paragraph (3).

(B)(i) For each of fiscal years 1992, 1993, and 1994, 465,000 shall be substituted for 480,000 in subparagraph (A)(i).

(ii) In no case shall the number computed under subparagraph (A) be less than 226,000.

(2) The number computed under this paragraph for a fiscal year is the sum of the number of aliens described in subparagraphs (A) and (B) of subsection (b)(2) who were issued immigrant visas or who otherwise acquired the status of aliens lawfully admitted to the United States for permanent residence in the previous fiscal year.

(3)(A) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1992 is zero.

(B) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1993 is the difference (if any) between the worldwide level established under paragraph (1) for the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under section 1153(a) of this title during that fiscal year.

(C) The number computed under this paragraph for a subsequent fiscal year is the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 1153(b) of this title (relating to employment-based immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year.

Note: 1153(b) refers to INA 203(b) which is (b) Preference allocation for employment-based immigrants where the 28.6% and 7.1% limits for EB1 EB5 are laid out.

(4) The number computed under this paragraph for a fiscal year (beginning with fiscal year 1999) is the number of aliens who were paroled into the United States under section 1182(d)(5) of this title in the second preceding fiscal year-

(A) who did not depart from the United States (without advance parole) within 365 days; and

(B) who (i) did not acquire the status of aliens lawfully admitted to the United States for permanent residence in the two preceding fiscal years, or (ii) acquired such status in such years under a provision of law (other than subsection (b)) which exempts such adjustment from the numerical limitation on the worldwide level of immigration under this section.

(5) If any alien described in paragraph (4) (other than an alien described in paragraph (4)(B)(ii)) is subsequently admitted as an alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence, such alien shall not again be considered for purposes of paragraph (1).


Similarly, INA 201 (d) or US Code 8 U.S.C. 1151 (d) specifies that unused FB visas in a FY shall be added to the EB allocation in the following FY.



(d) Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants

(1) The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to-

(A) 140,000, plus

(B) the number computed under paragraph (2).

(2)(A) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1992 is zero.

(B) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1993 is the difference (if any) between the worldwide level established under paragraph (1) for the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under section 1153(b) of this title during that fiscal year.

(C) The number computed under this paragraph for a subsequent fiscal year is the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 1153(a) of this title (relating to family-sponsored immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year.


You can find the text here (https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title8-section1151&num=0&edition=prelim).

A handy starting point is here (https://www.uscis.gov/legal-resources/immigration-and-nationality-act).

[jimmys]

I am willing to forget the entire spillover from FB. EB2 ROW demand will be very subdued next year giving EB2I a good horizontal spill over. Also, when you say USCIS will waste 30-40K visas in FY 21 because the agency wasted 25K visas this year due to lock down, you are expecting another lock down next year (?) No matter how many visas will be wasted next year, I am still thinking EB2I up to April 2010 is in the clear. If not, then FY 2022 will certainly take care of the currently pending inventory. So, the wait is no longer than 1-2 years now. And while we are waiting, enjoy monthly visa bulletins movement, some times two weeks, sometimes a month and you keep getting closer and closer! It's going to be fun! More restrictive Trump EO is actually a good news for people waiting for their green cards for a decade now.

I don't expect another lockdown. USCIS is reducing their workforce. With reduced workforce, I'm not sure they can service 200K EB cases expected for FY 21 with interview requirements. All the pending inventory will be cleared for EB2 India sooner rather than later. My question was how the new inventory is built (and when).

[gcwait]

Wish you a safe flight. Once you arrive, can you please write down your experience in term of travel in Covid-situation? Somebody I know is travelling back in a few days and will appreciate your notes. All the best.

You may find below useful:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1XAKjS8V81rfVxs4F0nYhgLuFBAuLZaiPD5Z075I0zfo/edit?fbclid=IwAR1R2T6FkjpmJLXATzMrCb8YlnXF-RkPDmzaNcsK3G3NyUDYMKyAko8Np0c

[bloddy1]

IMO, it doesn't matter how many visas we get from FB for FY 21. What matters is how many new cases USCIS can process for AOS applicants in FY 21. The already interviewed cases for EB-3 and no-interview requirement cases for EB-2 will soon evaporate.

Agree with this fascinating statement despite being seemingly simple. Every instance CO has pushed back on being aggressive on dates boils down to TWO things;
1) a visa availability problem and
2) internal workforce planning (adjudicate and provide final approval);

AND specifically in that order

Case in point, 2015 October visa bulletin, large scale movement was pushed back purely because you CANNOT ramp-up and train an entire workforce to adjudicate incoming demand for ONE specific type of demand (EB2/3-I) when that demand isn't sustainable. From CO standpoint, this is a workforce management problem as supported by visa number availability, hence predictability is THE ONLY thing he can rely on. So, if I need to plan for 20000 USCIS workers to adjudicate 50 odd categories of Green Cards (asylum, FB, EB 1,2....5) for 100s of countries with numerous documentation variations with minimal error rate, you are down to single digits per service center that will actually be able to do specific clearance.

And if I planned my workforce for EB India specifically, then demand at best is 1 month per bulletin on both Final and Filing dates (which by far has been the most predictable movement).

Peak volume processing is limited by workforce experience in EB -> EB2 -> EB2India. So doesn't matter the tailwinds you are still blocked by workforce problems. Hence, the only time you will see faster than a month per bulletin is demand in EB-> EB2 or 3 is lesser from other countries. It doesn't help if FB demand or even EB 1/4/5 demand is lesser than usual.

[Zenzone]

Then why he moved EB1 substantially in this bulletin.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

So essentially there is push-pull for all parties involved, Us, USCIS and Admin. In our case, some of us are celebrating that Covid/EO is a spillover goldmine, but the Admin can also use the same excuse to waste those visas. On the USCIS side, they are hemorrhaging money and are not able to sustain the workforce because of reduced filings but would like the revenue for sure and not go to Congress begging for money. The Admin is pressuring USCIS to restrict processing and kill the excess visas but that could end up loss/furlough of more American jobs at USCIS. So it's a nice circular conundrum.

Maybe this is all wishful thinking, but in my opinion, our best bet is that USCIS gets it's funding. It's too unrealistic to expect that they will open the floodgates because they already have moved the dates to May 1, 2010 before so unless they move it to end of 2010 or something, it's not going to impact their funding shortfall. If they get their funding, then they can bring back their employees to full strength and start processing. With the incoming application levels falling off a cliff, they have got to be able to process at least the pre-adjudicated cases through April 2010 when it comes to EB2-I.

[usvisas]

Is it true that significant percentage of EB3I are done by consular processing? I thought that was only true for EB3 Philippines.

[rocketfast]

Is it true that significant percentage of EB3I are done by consular processing? I thought that was only true for EB3 Philippines.

It has only been this way for the last 1.5 years. Because EB3-I moved fast, a lot of Indians that had gone back to India with a valid PD are coming back.
As we move through the recession years (2009, 2010), you will likely have more consular processing.

[usvisas]

Got it. Thanks rocketfast. Is there a way to see this data somewhere? I cannot seem to find that here https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2019.html

[rocketfast]

Got it. Thanks rocketfast. Is there a way to see this data somewhere? I cannot seem to find that here https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2019.html


Read from the second post in the below link (or the previous page). I did not want you to assume that I was pointing you to read the first post.
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards/page3

[idliman]

Just a heads-up to all the pending I485 applicants who may be sending their applications to TSC (e.g., renewal of their EAD/AP). Double check the address from USCIS website before sending the applications (TSC). They are moving to a new address.

https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/texas-service-center-moving-new-address-june-26


On June 26, the Texas Service Center will move to a new address. Although the move is scheduled for June 26, USCIS cannot accept mail at the new address until Monday, June 29. The new facility will help streamline processes by consolidating operations in the new location. The Texas Service Center will continue to provide prompt and efficient service in processing requests for immigration benefits. The updated address for the service center will be:

Texas Service Center
6046 N Belt Line Rd.
Irving, TX 75038-0001

[bloddy1]

Fuloughs at USCIS Coming more reason to not give numbers this year

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/politics/uscis-immigration-citizenship-furlough/index.html

[rocketfast]

Fuloughs at USCIS Coming more reason to not give numbers this year

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/politics/uscis-immigration-citizenship-furlough/index.html

Spec recently posted that spillovers from EB go to FB and FB to EB. Does this mean that there can never be any wastage anymore? And the extra numbers forever in circulation till they are used up? I am trying to understand whether the unused EB this year after going to FB can again come back to EB.

[Immigo]

Looking again at the guidance from CO ( https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/ ), a few statements stand out:

1) Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.
2) The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Given that 25K EB visas are expected to be unused, 2) should imply that EB2-I Final action date would reach May 1, 2010 by September 2020 bulletin and should clean out existing inventory. However, EB3-I also has pre-adjudicated demand. Eg. in October 2019, filing date for EB-3 was Feb 1, 2010. Does anyone know why is this demand not considered pre-adjudicated demand in the above statement ? Additionally, even though EB-3 numbers will be utilized, some numbers can be used from the 25K unused numbers. Therefore, shouldn't EB3-I reach Feb 1, 2010 as well by September 2020 bulletin ?

[jimmys]

Looking again at the guidance from CO ( https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/ ), a few statements stand out:

1) Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.
2) The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Given that 25K EB visas are expected to be unused, 2) should imply that EB2-I Final action date would reach May 1, 2010 by September 2020 bulletin and should clean out existing inventory. However, EB3-I also has pre-adjudicated demand. Eg. in October 2019, filing date for EB-3 was Feb 1, 2010. Does anyone know why is this demand not considered pre-adjudicated demand in the above statement ? Additionally, even though EB-3 numbers will be utilized, some numbers can be used from the 25K unused numbers. Therefore, shouldn't EB3-I reach Feb 1, 2010 as well by September 2020 bulletin ?

The reason is in #1 as you mentioned. Since EB3 category is expected to reach its annual limit, there's no horizontal spillover to EB-3 I. In case of EB-2 I, there's horizontal spillover expected(May get some vertical spillover too). So, in all EB-2 I will march ahead in the coming months. This is what CO answered in monthly check in. Maybe in FY 21, after EB-3 ROW becomes current, then EB-3 India will start moving.

Looks like 25K visas will be wasted between EB-5, EB-1, and EB-2 categories. It's up to USCIS/DoS to come up a plan to approve EB-3 I pending inventory. The probability for that to happen is very low.

[srimurthy]

Looking again at the guidance from CO ( https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/ ), a few statements stand out:

1) Given significant early number usage, the EB-3 and EB-4 categories are most likely among the various employment-based categories to reach their annual limits this fiscal year.
2) The good news is that there is currently a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 China, EB-1 India, EB-2 China and EB-2 India that can reasonably be expected to be adjudicated despite the processing constraints. Many of these cases may only require renewed security checks to complete processing, and others may also require renewed medicals.

Given that 25K EB visas are expected to be unused, 2) should imply that EB2-I Final action date would reach May 1, 2010 by September 2020 bulletin and should clean out existing inventory. However, EB3-I also has pre-adjudicated demand. Eg. in October 2019, filing date for EB-3 was Feb 1, 2010. Does anyone know why is this demand not considered pre-adjudicated demand in the above statement ? Additionally, even though EB-3 numbers will be utilized, some numbers can be used from the 25K unused numbers. Therefore, shouldn't EB3-I reach Feb 1, 2010 as well by September 2020 bulletin ?

My understanding is EB2-I is adjustment of status filing 485s already in US and they submitted the applications when dates moved to Apr'2010, where as EB3 I most cases may be CP cases so they have to be filed outside of India and the applications may not have been submitted yet.
Experts can correct my interpretation. But no matter what unless USCIS plans to request for a Visa number it doesn't matter if we have 25K spillover or 60K next year.

[bloddy1]

My understanding is EB2-I is adjustment of status filing 485s already in US and they submitted the applications when dates moved to Apr'2010, where as EB3 I most cases may be CP cases so they have to be filed outside of India and the applications may not have been submitted yet.
Experts can correct my interpretation. But no matter what unless USCIS plans to request for a Visa number it doesn't matter if we have 25K spillover or 60K next year.

What happens when the current EB2&3I pre-adjudicated inventory until April 2010 does run out, especially since new interviews are not being conducted. Assuming a good chunk of spillover could be directly applied to pending inventory.

When you say plan to request a visa number, are you pointing to ability of USCIS to process or other hurdles

[Spectator]

Spec recently posted that spillovers from EB go to FB and FB to EB. Does this mean that there can never be any wastage anymore? And the extra numbers forever in circulation till they are used up? I am trying to understand whether the unused EB this year after going to FB can again come back to EB.

A few points.

The above has always been the case - it's nothing new.

With the exception of F2A (a recent phenomenon), all FB categories are severely retrogressed and should, in theory, use any extra visas that might be allocated.

The calculation for the FY allocation for FB is slightly more complicated than the EB one. In very simple terms, it says:


The FB allocation is:
480,000
minus
The number of Immediate Relative approvals in the previous FY.
minus
The number of aliens who were paroled into the United States under section 1182(d)(5) of this title in the second preceding fiscal year (not that many).
plus
The number of unused EB visas in the previous FY.

There is a caveat that in no case may the total allocation be less than 226,000.


If we look at the rough calculation for FY2019, you will see why FB will always receive 226,000 regardless of how many unused EB visa there are.

480,000 - 478,961 (FY2018 IR) = 1,039

Number of parolees is unknown,, but would only reduce the number.

So, around 225k of unused EB visas from the previous FY would have been needed just to bring the calculation up to the minimum of 226k.

In a real sense, only EB can benefit from wasted visas since the calculation for the FY EB allocation is simply:


140,000
plus
The number of unused FB visas in the previous FY.

[srimurthy]

What happens when the current EB2&3I pre-adjudicated inventory until April 2010 does run out, especially since new interviews are not being conducted. Assuming a good chunk of spillover could be directly applied to pending inventory.

Then CO may move dates to get the new demand.


When you say plan to request a visa number, are you pointing to ability of USCIS to process or other hurdles
Yes and the workforce capacity and ability to process as many as they can when the spillover availabilities are clear.

[IamGSN]

Just a heads-up to all the pending I485 applicants who may be sending their applications to TSC (e.g., renewal of their EAD/AP). Double check the address from USCIS website before sending the applications (TSC). They are moving to a new address.

https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/texas-service-center-moving-new-address-june-26

Guys,

Have couple questions:

1. What are the documents needed for EAD+AP Combo card renewal?
2. Can I file myself for renewal, or I need to file through the attorney?

I checked the fee calculator, it came out to be zero. If anybody has filed for renewal recently, can you suggest the process? I haven't received my response yet from my attorney. I need to apply once the 180 clock starts

[vckomara]

Guys,

Have couple questions:

1. What are the documents needed for EAD+AP Combo card renewal?
2. Can I file myself for renewal, or I need to file through the attorney?

I checked the fee calculator, it came out to be zero. If anybody has filed for renewal recently, can you suggest the process? I haven't received my response yet from my attorney. I need to apply once the 180 clock starts

You can easily apply by yourself. I did it 4 times so far. Checklist should be easily available with an internet search.

[rabp77]

Guys,

Have couple questions:

1. What are the documents needed for EAD+AP Combo card renewal?
2. Can I file myself for renewal, or I need to file through the attorney?

I checked the fee calculator, it came out to be zero. If anybody has filed for renewal recently, can you suggest the process? I haven't received my response yet from my attorney. I need to apply once the 180 clock starts

Please find the instruction and forms at the website below
EAD : https://www.uscis.gov/i-765
AP : https://www.uscis.gov/i-131

i know lots of people who have done it on their own. Its pretty straight forward forms.

[idliman]

I had posted the sample cover letter and details on the EAD / AP forum. I also sent a PM. Sorry this forum does not allow word file attachments. So if you want word files, it has to be done outside.
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1429-EAD-(and-or-AP)-Renewal?p=64827&viewfull=1#post64827

[GC14Jan2010]

Yes you can apply by yourself and there is no cost for renewal. List is available online please cross check. But below list if it helps:
COVERING LETTER ON DOCUMENTS SUBMITTED
Name: <Your Name>
ALIEN #: A-#####
DOCUMENTS ATTACHED WITH FORM I-765
· Completed FORM I-765 for Employment Authorization
· 2 color photographs
· Copy of I-485 Receipt of filing - Pending employment-based Form I-485
· Copy of Previously approved EAD/AP mailer with barcodes
· Copy of previously approved EAD/AP Combo (front & back)
· Copy of ID pages in passport
· Form G1145 for E Notification
· Copy of latest I-94

[aquatican]

Hello Guys, My I-485 case status changed to 'Card is being Produced'.
Should i not say 'Case Approved'? a bit confused.

[monsieur]

Hello Guys, My I-485 case status changed to 'Card is being Produced'.
Should i not say 'Case Approved'? a bit confused.

Congrats and nope case approved is sometimes comes only for fleeting moments and then case status goes to Card is being produced. Enjoy your freedom on July 4th :party:

[aquatican]

o good thank you! Freedom after 11 years . Better late than never.

[calking1975]

o good thank you! Freedom after 11 years . Better late than never.

Congratulations...

I am waiting...

12 years in GC line.
..8 years even to file I-485.
...missed by 2 months in 2012 to file I-485.
...False hope in 2015, with VB advanced to 2011 for EB2-I and rolled back.
....from there every year dates going backwards... :(
Hoping this year or next year atleast to file I-485.

PD: 25-Jun-2010

[imdeng]

Congratulations aquatician! Great news.

Based on trackitt conversation (including aquatician's update), it looks like USCIS is continuing to work, process and approve cases. That is good news. Assuming that USCIS will be bailed out and will not need to furlough staff, we may end up utilizing good amount of the annual quota after all.


Hello Guys, My I-485 case status changed to 'Card is being Produced'.
Should i not say 'Case Approved'? a bit confused.

[aquatican]

calking1975 thank you!
i feel your pain man. i missed the 2012 window since i was restarting PERM.
In 2015 when VB filing date advanced and reversed i made it with margin of 2 days and filed I-485. That made life 10x more bearable with EAD and AC21 protection.

with ample spillover and suspension of processing i am quite optimistic that you will be able to file soon when filing dates advance.

[abcx13]

From Murthy Law Firm (https://www.murthy.com/2020/06/29/july-2020-visa-bulletin-check-in/) on CO check-in:

Question About Fiscal Limit Not Being Reached
Last month, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the annual limit on employment-based green cards is unlikely to be reached this fiscal year. This prompted a follow-up question from the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA), asking why Mr. Oppenheim does not therefore accelerate the cutoff dates in the monthly visa bulletin to increase usage. Mr. Oppenheim responded as follows:

“That is exactly what I am doing, but I have to do so within reason based on processing capacity, and not strictly for the sake of movement with no reasonable expectation of actual number use. Processing capacity at both consular posts and USCIS [U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services] is diminished due to the pandemic … The premise that dramatically advancing the Final Action Dates will result in full (or closer to full) number usage is flawed. The agencies’ (and State’s) [the USCIS’s (and DOS’s)] diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase actual number usage this fiscal year. Additionally, such abrupt movements would likely result in corrective action in the form of retrogression, which should be avoided.”

[qesehmk]

The agencies’ (and State’s) [the USCIS’s (and DOS’s)] diminished processing capacity makes it unreasonable to expect that an even more accelerated advancement in the Final Action Dates would increase actual number usage this fiscal year.
This statement from CO is patently false. There is tens of thousands of people from EB-India who are simply waiting for a visa. No processing is needed. All they have to do is simply allocate the visa.

[need4speed]

This statement from CO is patently false. There is tens of thousands of people from EB-India who are simply waiting for a visa. No processing is needed. All they have to do is simply allocate the visa.

Can these cases be approved without advancing dates? What is he hinting at?

[qesehmk]

Can these cases be approved without advancing dates? What is he hinting at?
In case of EB-I there is a pre-approved cases' backlog. All they need is a visa. If I am not wrong this "pre-approved" backlog goes all the way into 2010. But if the dates are not FAD then USCIS does not ask for a visa and if USCIS does not ask for a visa then DOS can not allocate the visa.

Thus right now the ball is squarely in Charlie Oppenheim's court. (CO is head of visa allocation I believe).

[rabp77]

In case of EB-I there is a pre-approved cases' backlog. All they need is a visa. If I am not wrong this "pre-approved" backlog goes all the way into 2010. But if the dates are not FAD then USCIS does not ask for a visa and if USCIS does not ask for a visa then DOS can not allocate the visa.

Thus right now the ball is squarely in Charlie Oppenheim's court. (CO is head of visa allocation I believe).

Thank Q. That makes sense.

Could this mean that CO is going to advance the final action date to the at least the filing dates for each category by September. Since most of the case till the filing dates have already been filled and processed, this will not be impacted by processing capacity. I wonder if this is is what it means. Would be interested in knowing your thoughts.

[1312011_eb2I]

Thank you, movement of FAD is in CO’s hand and he can move FAD to DF , this will make all EAD holders greened. If that doesn’t happen by EoY, then there is no point of waiting since all the actions are done to hold EB -I forever, cheap strategy. But what is the reason of holding EB2 only? We have seen movement on EB1 and EB3 though.

[abcx13]

I think the problem is with USCIS - even if CO moves dates, they can choose not to honor them, right? And USCIS is now politicized. So perhaps they told CO that if he moves dates beyond X date, they will not honor them. So perhaps his hands are bound? I don't know...just speculating.

[1312011_eb2I]

Not exactly, USCIS has to accept either DOF or FA. If CO Moves FA to lets say April 2010. USCIS just has to allocate GC against already filed I-485( in 2012), as per Qshmek.

[1312011_eb2I]

I am sure they are using FORTRAN aged systems and would require manual steps.

[qesehmk]

I think CO is clearly saying that he thinks visas will be wasted because USCIS has less processing capability and he will not move dates because he sees no point.

What he is not saying is there is a pre processed demand beyond current dates and all they need is a visa. So the ball is in his court not USCIS' court - especially if CO thinks he will have visas and tehy will be wasted.

[IamGSN]

Hello Guys, My I-485 case status changed to 'Card is being Produced'.
Should i not say 'Case Approved'? a bit confused.

Congrats! When did you go for interview?

[alpha0]

I think CO is clearly saying that he thinks visas will be wasted because USCIS has less processing capability and he will not move dates because he sees no point.

What he is not saying is there is a pre processed demand beyond current dates and all they need is a visa. So the ball is in his court not USCIS' court - especially if CO thinks he will have visas and tehy will be wasted.

CO will be a partner in crime if he does not move FAD to consume those 25k GCs. That will give USCIS just an excuse that they processed cases based on final action dates set by DoS.

I read somewhere about setting up of dates - USCIS demands visas to DoS and then depending on number of visas still available, DoS moves dates so that consulates can process the remaining numbers. I agree that consulates are not allowed to issue EB GCs but there was no mention of DoS considering USCIS capacity to publish dates. And since spillover next year will be more then 25k and consulates are not going to issue EB GCs for first quarter, fear of retrogression mentioned by CO is also baseless.

I am surprised (or may be not) that no lawyer asked CO what is the processing effort needed in cases where interviews are complete and nothing is pending except priority dates to be current.

[aquatican]

Congrats! When did you go for interview?
IamGSN i was exempt for interview since i filed for AoS in 2015

[aquatican]

Out of curiosity...
How pre-adjudicated cases get approved when PD becomes current?
Does each case go through click-review-approve flow? Or, is it system automated bulk approval? Wondering if they need more staff to process it.

From what i understand as well as seeing the way the status change it is a manual review and approval done by an officer.

[prabakarb]

I filed in 2010 and my Priority date is 04/02/2010. Am I exempt from the interview as well when my date becomes current?

[imdeng]

Yup. No interview for you.


I filed in 2010 and my Priority date is 04/02/2010. Am I exempt from the interview as well when my date becomes current?

[idliman]

I am sure they are using FORTRAN aged systems and would require manual steps.
I think you meant COBOL. Sorry could not let this go without rebuttal. New FORTRAN standards 2008 / 2013 are very powerful and even better than C++. Everything you know in C / C++ was implemented in FORTRAN about 15+ years back. Most design patterns can be done in FORTRAN. Lately C++ has been borrowing some of the features from FORTRAN standards. For example array additions can be written in one line as c = a+b; No operator overloading type business. Most of the basic operations (eg., Max, Min, Maxloc, Minloc, etc) are natively supported in language standards and no school 101 level coding is needed. Supports highly parallel capabilities that you can control easily. Of course most of the engineering software and solvers are written in FORTRAN on the background. Heck, OOP was implemented in Fortran 15+ years back. Try dealing with Fourier series in time and frequency domain (with one data of order of 2^16 or 2**16 in FORTRAN) or sparse simultaneous equations with 1+ million degrees of freedom and doing all the operations on them on any other software. FORTRAN was built for hardcore number crunching and no one can beat it at its game. Sadly it is not attractive from commercial point of view.

I understand that most of you in IT industry are from Java/C++ type background. I sometimes wonder how many people in typical IT jobs get to play with design patterns and correct data representation for their applications that we learnt in Algorithms class. It has a different purpose.

[idliman]

Changing the topic a bit, anyone have Reddy & Co as their attorneys? I hear rumor that they told clients in this weekly meeting that only EB1 will move in next VB. Does AILA faithful’s have some insider information?

[1312011_eb2I]

Yes, they said here is the link( please watch between 20Min -24 Min.
https://youtu.be/B8xEU629WAQ

[idliman]

Yes, they said here is the link( please watch between 20Min -24 Min.
https://youtu.be/B8xEU629WAQ
Thank you. This does not look like new information. False Alarm. Ms. Rebecca Chen is saying that she expects movement for EB1I in October based on CO's comments. She cannot say whether there will be movement or how much of a movement will be there in October for EB2I and EB3I. "Hopefully" is the word used for EB2I/EB3I.

I guess we need to just wait, watch and pray that Mr. CO throws us some breadcrumbs in the next VB.

[Spectator]

CO will be a partner in crime if he does not move FAD to consume those 25k GCs. That will give USCIS just an excuse that they processed cases based on final action dates set by DoS.

I read somewhere about setting up of dates - USCIS demands visas to DoS and then depending on number of visas still available, DoS moves dates so that consulates can process the remaining numbers. I agree that consulates are not allowed to issue EB GCs but there was no mention of DoS considering USCIS capacity to publish dates. And since spillover next year will be more then 25k and consulates are not going to issue EB GCs for first quarter, fear of retrogression mentioned by CO is also baseless.

I am surprised (or may be not) that no lawyer asked CO what is the processing effort needed in cases where interviews are complete and nothing is pending except priority dates to be current.

The process for visa allocation is explained quite well in this document (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf).

CO gets exact numbers from the consulates in advance of the FAD calculation and VB publication. The exact number of visas are allocated (at the time of VB publication) to each consulate based on the FAD movement, based on the reports each consulate submitted. If the consulate cannot interview the candidate and make a decision, then the visa is returned to CO in the following month.

CO appears to have some idea of preadjudicated cases that USCIS has (in his "pending file") . A visa number for AOS cases is not allocated until USCIS perform the actual approval and request the visa. During a month, not all cases approved by USCIS were preadjudicated and in the "pending file" that CO has access to. Even though CO sends USCIS a list of the cases in the "pending file" that have become current, that does not mean that USCIS can approve all those case in that month. That may be because additional information is required (e.g. up to date medical) or the much talked about processing capacity, or it might be that the paperwork does not make it from storage in time to the location where the case can be reviewed and approved.

That is my best understanding of the process, but I do encourage people to read the DOS explanation of the process.

[Pundit Arjun]

I do believe CO can do better. Hence I agree with anyone saying that - "He is a partner in this crime" or that he is riding the gravy train...

Not picking on Spec but using his update to put forth my points :


a) Since Consulates are closed, CO should have the number from Consulate as ZERO [0] in his calculator or Excel or any tool he uses.


b) CO should not have "some" idea but clear idea and number based on "Preadjudicated" cases.

CO can do the above two for sure and should not give any excuses.

The folks who are responsible for transporting the paperwork from Storage to location - should clearly review their performance. Dude, If this is your Job and you are getting paid for it - Do it on time and do it efficiently.
If this is too much of an ask, do consider hiring us [immigrants] and we can show how its done.

Imagine if a lawn contractor, or plumber or handyman that you use - give you the excuses we have been seeing in doing their Job [Keeping updates straightforward, do their work and bill for only what they do] - We would have fired them longtime ago. For christsakes, we are not asking for grace or help or relying on luck - DO THE JOB...





The process for visa allocation is explained quite well in this document (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Immigrant%20Visa%20Control%20System_operation%20of .pdf).

CO gets exact numbers from the consulates in advance of the FAD calculation and VB publication. The exact number of visas are allocated (at the time of VB publication) to each consulate based on the FAD movement, based on the reports each consulate submitted. If the consulate cannot interview the candidate and make a decision, then the visa is returned to CO in the following month.

CO appears to have some idea of preadjudicated cases that USCIS has (in his "pending file") . A visa number for AOS cases is not allocated until USCIS perform the actual approval and request the visa. During a month, not all cases approved by USCIS were preadjudicated and in the "pending file" that CO has access to. Even though CO sends USCIS a list of the cases in the "pending file" that have become current, that does not mean that USCIS can approve all those case in that month. That may be because additional information is required (e.g. up to date medical) or the much talked about processing capacity, or it might be that the paperwork does not make it from storage in time to the location where the case can be reviewed and approved.

That is my best understanding of the process, but I do encourage people to read the DOS explanation of the process.

[alpha0]

That DoS document helped a lot to understand the date finalization process.

I can not buy CO's argument that he knows there are more than 25k pre-adjudicatd cases and he also has supply of those 25k visas, he will still not move the dates because USCIS can not process those. In that document, there was no mention of considering USCIS capacity in establishing VB dates.

What processing is needed for people who cleared interviews last year and whose medicals are valid and there is no 485J filed? Just a background check and push a button to order cards?