EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[jimmys]

I thought FB spillovers are allocated to all EB categories equally. May I know why EB1 will alone benefit?

Maybe I should have put it clear.

In FY 21, if 50K spillover happens to EB categories, it's equally allocated as they were allocated last year's 16K. My point was, with that spillover EB1 will march fast into 2018/2019 from 2015. EB2 and EB3 India may move a year or so even with such spillover, Instead of dates stuck in 2009, it will get stuck in 2010.

[Zenzone]

But the number could be way more than 50K spillover right. Given that its the election year, DT may extend this into fall.

[vsivarama]

Maybe I should have put it clear.

In FY 21, if 50K spillover happens to EB categories, it's equally allocated as they were allocated last year's 16K. My point was, with that spillover EB1 will march fast into 2018/2019 from 2015. EB2 and EB3 India may move a year or so even with such spillover, Instead of dates stuck in 2009, it will get stuck in 2010.

If what you said turns out to be true, I could still see a slight silver lining (I admit it's minute). At least some new people will be able to file for 485 (folks beyond Apr 2010) who never had the ability to file over the last 8 years!!

[Zenzone]

But the number could be way more than 50K spillover right. Given that its the election year, DT may extend this into fall. Can someone pls post the link to past inventory analysis?

[Blue_fairy]

Folks, don't count your chickens and don't raise your hopes. Given the environment, I am very skeptical that any spillover will be applied to any category this year. The administration has not even released the May bulletin yet; and no bulletin may become the status quo for foreseeable future.

[Zenzone]

yes....but its required to publish the VB as there is no ban on immigration per se. Sooner or later it will be issued. I understand the importance of cautious optimism though.

[rocketfast]

Is this March 2020 consular processing data? (Or is it Feb?). If it is march, it still looks substantial usage.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyIVIssuances/MARCH%202020%20-%20IV%20Issuances%20by%20FSC%20and%20Visa%20Class. pdf

[rainmaker12]

May 2020 Visa Bulletin to be Released Tomorrow
23 Apr 2020
Charles Oppenheim, the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, stated during a conference call this afternoon that the May 2020 Visa Bulletin has finally been cleared for release. He expects to issue it Friday, April 24, 2020.

https://www.murthy.com/2020/04/23/newsflash-may-2020-visa-bulletin-to-be-released-tomorrow/

[harinatham14]

Yes, it is march CP data.

refer the below link for detailed counts per country wise
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards/page3

[rocketfast]

Yes, it is march CP data.

refer the below link for detailed counts per country wise
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards/page3

Thanks. So for Q1+Q2, family based is same as 2019 Q1+Q2. I was expecting March numbers to have cratered - apparently not.

Since AOS FB will still be valid, likely tomorrow's visa bulletin will make it current. Not sure how much demand it can create.

Also, if it does become current, does it mean that those in EB who have sibling citizens can apply there right away? (Not very familiar with FB timelines)

[jimmys]

Folks, don't count your chickens and don't raise your hopes. Given the environment, I am very skeptical that any spillover will be applied to any category this year. The administration has not even released the May bulletin yet; and no bulletin may become the status quo for foreseeable future.

I agree. None of us have any clue how this will turn out. But, given circumstances and based on FY 19 FB CP numbers:
16K (It may approximately yield as much as last year) + 10K (Due to public charges rule)+ 24K (Two months complete shutdown).

There could be a lot of variables that can alter the above equation. When this ban ends on Jun 24, in the rest of the months they can issue the 24K in that equation. But still 26K is not completely unreasonable.

We will re-assess in Aug 2020.

[rabp77]

I agree. None of us have any clue how this will turn out. But, given circumstances and based on FY 19 FB CP numbers:
16K (It may approximately yield as much as last year) + 10K (Due to public charges rule)+ 24K (Two months complete shutdown).

There could be a lot of variables that can alter the above equation. When this ban ends on Jun 24, in the rest of the months they can issue the 24K in that equation. But still 26K is not completely unreasonable.

We will re-assess in Aug 2020.

Good plan, my friend and brother Jimmys.

[Blue_fairy]

I agree. None of us have any clue how this will turn out. But, given circumstances and based on FY 19 FB CP numbers:
16K (It may approximately yield as much as last year) + 10K (Due to public charges rule)+ 24K (Two months complete shutdown).

There could be a lot of variables that can alter the above equation. When this ban ends on Jun 24, in the rest of the months they can issue the 24K in that equation. But still 26K is not completely unreasonable.

We will re-assess in Aug 2020.

I am EB2 Oct 2009.. rooting for your optimism instead of my skepticism :)

[Prabhas]

I am EB2 Oct 2009.. rooting for your optimism instead of my skepticism :)

A similar spillover info tweet from one of the attorney's...

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status/1253264588029779969?s=12

[fluid2fin]

sorry for a quick tangent. My PD is Nov 2017 for EB1A. on EAD+AP with interview completed Feb 2019
When can I expect to have the 485 approved?
Thanks!

[Umesh1209]

yes....but its required to publish the VB as there is no ban on immigration per se. Sooner or later it will be issued. I understand the importance of cautious optimism though.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-may-2020.html

EB2 : 02-Jun-2009
EB3 : 01-Mar-2009

FB seems to have no impact based on EO

[rabp77]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-may-2020.html

EB2 : 02-Jun-2009
EB3 : 01-Mar-2009

FB seems to have no impact based on EO

yeah...many FB categories seems to have moved significantly. But i believe they can still not apply unless they are already physically present in US. As per what i have heard, 85% of family based visa are applied through consulates outside US.

Glad EB3I-FAD moved by more than a month, which is the best we have seen in some time.

[abcx13]

Actually I wonder if there are a lot of AoS FB candidates living in the US under some status who become current because of the lack of CP and basically 'jump the queue' and get their GCs soon.

What a mess. :(

[Blue_fairy]

Based on what we now know about the EO and the May VB, any gurus willing to go back to the calculation/prediction game and share their thoughts on date movement over the next 6 months?

[rocketfast]

Not a Guru. But here are my numbers:

My COVID predictions for 2021:
-----------------------------

For FY2020, Q1+Q2, FB has given away 90,000 GCs via consular processing. For FY 2019, consular processing gave away 190,000 FB GCs (remaining were AOS FB). And a spillover of ~16000 to EB for this year. Total FB from which spillover can come is 226,000.

This year, we assume that 16,000 will come again. And in addition, we may get (A: 20,000, B: 30,000, C: 40,000) depending on the length of Trump's shutdown and the extra amount that FB AOS will take up because of fast moving dates.

After this year, EB2I will have ~2800 remaning in 2009 (based on the last published I-485 inventory). And guessing that EB3I will have ~2000 remaining in 2009.

For FY2021, if we get 50,000 FB spillover, EB2 and EB3 will each get 14,000 GCs extra. Since EB2ROW is current and since EB3ROW is likely close to current, I make an assumption that all of that will go to EB2-I and EB3-I.

On the demand side, in 2009, there will be ~5000 EB2I+EB3I demand. And we know that for FY2010, the total PERM for EB3I and EB2I was 22361 leading to a worst case GC demand of 44,600 (demand skewed towards later half of year).

So, you are looking at EB2-I and EB3-I with a final action date of late 2010 and filing date of early 2011.

[rocketfast]

USCIS only opening offices by June. A positive.

https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/uscis-offices-preparing-reopen-june-4

[redsox2009]

O April 20th when we were busy with Dr.Pepper's tweet, USCIS released some interesting data.


2020

Quarter -------------- Q1 ------- Q2 ----- Q3 ----- Q4 ----- Total
PERM ------------- 16,072 --- 15,105 ------ 0 ------ 0 ---- 31,777
I140 Received ---- 33,077 -------- 0 ------ 0 ------ 0 ---- 33,077
I140 Approved ---- 30,575 -------- 0 ------ 0 ------ 0 ---- 30,575
I485 Received ---- 40,239 -------- 0 ------ 0 ------ 0 ---- 40,239
I485 Approved ---- 41,884 -------- 0 ------ 0 ------ 0 ---- 41,884
ROW PERM ---------- 4,751 ---- 4,679 ------ 0 ------ 0 ----- 9,430


Form I-140, I-360, I-526 Approved EB Petitions Awaiting Visa Final Priority Dates By Preference Category
As of November 12, 2019

Employment Based Preference Category

Country of Birth ------- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ----- EB5 ---- Grand Total
China --------------- 10,010 -- 29,517 --- 8,930 ----- 637 ------- 0 -- 27,251 --------- 76,345
El Salvador -------------- 5 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 -- 13,324 ------- 0 --------- 13,329
Guatemala --------------- 16 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 -- 11,171 ------- 0 --------- 11,187
Honduras ----------------- 4 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 9,835 ------- 0 ---------- 9,839
India --------------- 29,630 - 284,207 -- 66,362 ----- 230 ------- 0 ----- 189 -------- 380,618
Mexico ----------------- 372 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 --- 1,975 ------- 0 ---------- 2,347
Philippines ------------- 94 ------- 0 ----5,262 ----- 333 ------- 0 ------- 0 ---------- 5,689
Vietnam ----------------- 32 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ----- 491 ------------ 523
Rest of the World ---- 8,116 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ------- 0 ---------- 8,116

TOTAL --------------- 48,279 - 313,724 -- 80,554 --- 1,200 -- 36,305 -- 27,931 -------- 507,993



Source:- Spec's caluculation, Perm Data and Uscis Data.
https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data?ftopics_tid=0

[laksinu800]

Thank you rocketfast.. This prediction is giving some light in a dark tunnel. Thanks for your time.

As per your prediction when can the dates move to Oct 2009 for EB2. Can they happen year around Oct 2020





Not a Guru. But here are my numbers:

My COVID predictions for 2021:
-----------------------------

For FY2020, Q1+Q2, FB has given away 90,000 GCs via consular processing. For FY 2019, consular processing gave away 190,000 FB GCs (remaining were AOS FB). And a spillover of ~16000 to EB for this year. Total FB from which spillover can come is 226,000.

This year, we assume that 16,000 will come again. And in addition, we may get (A: 20,000, B: 30,000, C: 40,000) depending on the length of Trump's shutdown and the extra amount that FB AOS will take up because of fast moving dates.

After this year, EB2I will have ~2800 remaning in 2009 (based on the last published I-485 inventory). And guessing that EB3I will have ~2000 remaining in 2009.

For FY2021, if we get 50,000 FB spillover, EB2 and EB3 will each get 14,000 GCs extra. Since EB2ROW is current and since EB3ROW is likely close to current, I make an assumption that all of that will go to EB2-I and EB3-I.

On the demand side, in 2009, there will be ~5000 EB2I+EB3I demand. And we know that for FY2010, the total PERM for EB3I and EB2I was 22361 leading to a worst case GC demand of 44,600 (demand skewed towards later half of year).

So, you are looking at EB2-I and EB3-I with a final action date of late 2010 and filing date of early 2011.

[Zenzone]

Not a Guru. But here are my numbers:

My COVID predictions for 2021:
-----------------------------

For FY2020, Q1+Q2, FB has given away 90,000 GCs via consular processing. For FY 2019, consular processing gave away 190,000 FB GCs (remaining were AOS FB). And a spillover of ~16000 to EB for this year. Total FB from which spillover can come is 226,000.

This year, we assume that 16,000 will come again. And in addition, we may get (A: 20,000, B: 30,000, C: 40,000) depending on the length of Trump's shutdown and the extra amount that FB AOS will take up because of fast moving dates.

After this year, EB2I will have ~2800 remaning in 2009 (based on the last published I-485 inventory). And guessing that EB3I will have ~2000 remaining in 2009.

For FY2021, if we get 50,000 FB spillover, EB2 and EB3 will each get 14,000 GCs extra. Since EB2ROW is current and since EB3ROW is likely close to current, I make an assumption that all of that will go to EB2-I and EB3-I.

On the demand side, in 2009, there will be ~5000 EB2I+EB3I demand. And we know that for FY2010, the total PERM for EB3I and EB2I was 22361 leading to a worst case GC demand of 44,600 (demand skewed towards later half of year).

So, you are looking at EB2-I and EB3-I with a final action date of late 2010 and filing date of early 2011.

================================================== ================================================== ================================================== ==

Thanks! This is helpful. So this doesn't account any other additional EB based horizontal SO due to lower ROW demand from the recession, right? (I'm not talking about your assumption of FB SO flowing directly to EB2/3 I but I'm talking about unused EB visas in the ROW side due to the weak recessionary demand.

[rocketfast]

Thanks! This is helpful. So this doesn't account any other additional EB based horizontal SO due to lower ROW demand from the recession, right? (I'm not talking about your assumption of FB SO flowing directly to EB2/3 I but I'm talking about unused EB visas in the ROW side due to the weak recessionary demand.

That is correct. Even if there is a horizontal spillover from EB2ROW, it will be very low thousands and will not make any difference in the larger picture. Also, since EB3ROW is not really current right now, it is likely to take some from FB anyway. But those are really around the corners and does not matter anyway as you are looking at 50,000 coming from FB and assuming worst case GC demand of 44,000 from EB2i + EB3i. Those are the big numbers and variations there will make the larger difference.

[Umesh1209]

That is correct. Even if there is a horizontal spillover from EB2ROW, it will be very low thousands and will not make any difference in the larger picture. Also, since EB3ROW is not really current right now, it is likely to take some from FB anyway. But those are really around the corners and does not matter anyway as you are looking at 50,000 coming from FB and assuming worst case GC demand of 44,000 from EB2i + EB3i. Those are the big numbers and variations there will make the larger difference.
Let us be cautious - https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1253704341694922753?s=21

[idliman]

Let us be cautious - https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1253704341694922753?s=21 Today's article i WaPo is titled ;

Stephen Miller has long-term vision for Trump’s ‘temporary’ immigration order, according to private call with supporters.

[Blue_fairy]

Today's article i WaPo is titled ;

Stephen Miller has long-term vision for Trump’s ‘temporary’ immigration order, according to private call with supporters.

Ofcourse nothing is coming to EB on a platter.

[Pravena Manimohan]

Thank you rocketfast. It really helps . With horizontal spillovers any chances EB2 might reach early 2011 in October? Or might get stuck in 2010 ?

[rocketfast]

Thank you rocketfast. It really helps . With horizontal spillovers any chances EB2 might reach early 2011 in October? Or might get stuck in 2010 ?

IMO, we are talking about mega hypotheticals. You can get more optimistic and move it all the way into early 2011. But it is best to wait for 3-4 months to see how things play out and then relook. (We are talking about 2021 October.). For all we know, as Greg Siskind says, they will come with a legally questionable executive action that says spillovers can't be used by EB.

[redsox2009]

Based on the data that was released on Apr 20, Monthly CO data, and the latest proclamation that was issued, I strongly believe whoever has applied I-485 in the last 18 months and got the medicals done and interviews were done, have high chances of getting GC by Sept.

If RFE's were issued then getting RFE response could take more time, I think USCIS will test issuing RFE's and see the response time. In the past, USCIS made a comment about RFE response time within 30-45 days and blamed EB3I for not responding within their anticipated time interval and this caused EB3I to lose GC's.

[redsox2009]

Not a Guru. But here are my numbers:

My COVID predictions for 2021:
-----------------------------

For FY2020, Q1+Q2, FB has given away 90,000 GCs via consular processing. For FY 2019, consular processing gave away 190,000 FB GCs (remaining were AOS FB). And a spillover of ~16000 to EB for this year. Total FB from which spillover can come is 226,000.

This year, we assume that 16,000 will come again. And in addition, we may get (A: 20,000, B: 30,000, C: 40,000) depending on the length of Trump's shutdown and the extra amount that FB AOS will take up because of fast-moving dates.

After this year, EB2I will have ~2800 remaning in 2009 (based on the last published I-485 inventory). And guessing that EB3I will have ~2000 remaining in 2009.

For FY2021, if we get 50,000 FB spillover, EB2 and EB3 will each get 14,000 GCs extra. Since EB2ROW is current and since EB3ROW is likely close to current, I make an assumption that all of that will go to EB2-I and EB3-I.

On the demand side, in 2009, there will be ~5000 EB2I+EB3I demand. And we know that for FY2010, the total PERM for EB3I and EB2I was 22361 leading to a worst case GC demand of 44,600 (demand skewed towards later half of year).

So, you are looking at EB2-I and EB3-I with a final action date of late 2010 and filing date of early 2011.

================================================== ================================================== ================================================== ==

Thanks! This is helpful. So this doesn't account any other additional EB based horizontal SO due to lower ROW demand from the recession, right? (I'm not talking about your assumption of FB SO flowing directly to EB2/3 I but I'm talking about unused EB visas on the ROW side due to the weak recessionary demand.


If US consulates are closed for 3 months, then there could be around 50K leftovers to the EB community. If that is the case then EB1+EB2+EB3 will get around 42K, i.e. 14k each. You need to consider many other factors here, Perm approvals, New I-140 applications, and I-485 applications, as the job market is very slow, there is lesser chances of new I-485 and Perms coming. This will have much more impact in the coming years, starting around March 2021, we will see EB2I/EB3I dates moving at a rapid pace and chances of hitting 2011 by end of 2022 is very high. But the key here is can the Job market and IT community surviving in 2021. (if US consulates are closed for 6 months then EB community will get around 100K). Based on events happening around the world, I think there is high chance of US consulate closing till July end. So this year we need to consider EB leftover numbers being allocated to EB1 from EB4/5 and to down EB2/3 based on the RFE issuance and response times.

In OCT 2018 following dates were current for filing, for these applications in the coming months around or after July 2020, becoming current is very high, I would give around 90%
EB1C --- 1-Oct-17, EB2C --- 15-Jun-15, EB3C ------ 8-Aug-15
EB1I --- 1-Oct-17, EB2I --- 22-May-09, EB3I ------- 1-Oct-09
EB1ROW/P/M ----1-Jun-18, EB2-ROW --- Current, EB3-ROW --- Current
EB3P ----- 1-Jul-17.





Recession is not taken off the table, whenever there is a recession, IT market got hit 6 months after the recession saw its lows. 2021 will be very key to the IT job market, more layoffs and more offshores resources pouring in. When the 2008 recession hit, I think in 2009/2010 USCIS did not approve H1B's and US consulates issued more 221g's. Based on these experiences we can expect to see that trend again. If I'm not wrong in 2010, I think H1B's applications were accepted till June/July. More H1b RFE's, higher PERM turn around time and high PERM audits can happen. If anyone is changing jobs in the next 6 months, I wish them a Goodluck as they might see a newer trend and more hard times.

In 2021, whoever is in Whitehouse we will have hard time for any immigration proposals going through and if Republicans are in control of the senate then we will have more hard time with USCIS. Senate Judiciary will give a more hard time to the USCIS.

[redsox2009]

FOr EB2I whoever responded to RFE's before DEC 2018, their dates becoming current is high (80%). I knew a few people whose dates are around Sept 2009 and they got RFE's in Sept 2018 and they responded in OCT/NOV 2018, their dates becoming current are not taken off the chart.

Interestingly I did not see CO's comment on the coming month dates movement, my guess CO is also uncertain how things will progress/move, but based on the previous experiences I'm sure CO will take some bold steps around July 2020 to utilize all available numbers.

[katana]

@redsox, what is your take on someone with a PD of May 25, 2017, EB1 India? We had our interview back in December 2018 and proactively submitted I 485J, as I changed jobs mid last year, which is still pending.

Thanks!

[redsox2009]

@redsox, what is your take on someone with a PD of May 25, 2017, EB1 India? We had our interview back in December 2018 and proactively submitted I 485J, as I changed jobs mid last year, which is still pending.

Thanks!

Around OCT 2020(+2 months) you have a high chance of becoming current.

[android09]

IMO, we are talking about mega hypotheticals. You can get more optimistic and move it all the way into early 2011. But it is best to wait for 3-4 months to see how things play out and then relook. (We are talking about 2021 October.). For all we know, as Greg Siskind says, they will come with a legally questionable executive action that says spillovers can't be used by EB.

Hi Rocketfest,

Just to check, how much of spillover will actually be needed to get to Early 2011 though? Is there an approximate estimation of how much spillover is needed to hit say Jan 31, 2011 ? My PD is in 2013, so not that I'm anxious but rather wish this thing moves along to some level so people from 2009 and 2010 are taken out of the pipeline.

[katana]

Thanks! We have also just applied for our ead/ap renewals earlier in the month. Let's see how long they approve it for. Previous one was for two years, and if they approve it for only 1 year this time, I will assume they expect me to get current within that time. Will keep people posted.

[maverickwild]

Around OCT 2020(+2 months) you have a high chance of becoming current.

How is FB spillover applied to EB in subsequent year?
1.Does it flow to EB1-->EB2-->EB3 or
2. Equally distributed among three.

Trying to see if there is 50-60K spillover from FB , how will it move the EB3-I needle

[NJMavarick]

How is FB spillover applied to EB in subsequent year?
1.Does it flow to EB1-->EB2-->EB3 or
2. Equally distributed among three.

Trying to see if there is 50-60K spillover from FB , how will it move the EB3-I needle

28.6% to EB1-3 categories and 7% to EB4-5. Spec has a good post in this forum explaining FB spill overs.

e.g: 100K - 28600 would each go to EB1,2,3 categories and then 7% would go to India EB2I (i.e. 2002). If EB2ROW is current then 28600 would go to EB2I completely.

[NJMavarick]

How is FB spillover applied to EB in subsequent year?
1.Does it flow to EB1-->EB2-->EB3 or
2. Equally distributed among three.

Trying to see if there is 50-60K spillover from FB , how will it move the EB3-I needle

Just to add, we will most likely get in excess of 70K spillover from FB. This will lead to close to 20K spillover for EB2 and EB3. We will have to see where EB3 ROW ends this fiscal. Depending upon that EB3I dates will be decided. I think EB3I demand is perhaps ~1200 people per month including dependents (i.e. 600 PERM per month) on the higher side. If EB3I were to get~12000 (10000 Spillover + 2806), we can expect a 10 month movement from the date that it gets to in current year.

Filing dates for EB3I should reach mid 2011 next year if all goes well. Again, this is a guesstimate....

[android09]

Just to add, we will most likely get in excess of 70K spillover from FB. This will lead to close to 20K spillover for EB2 and EB3. We will have to see where EB3 ROW ends this fiscal. Depending upon that EB3I dates will be decided. I think EB3I demand is perhaps ~1200 people per month including dependents (i.e. 600 PERM per month) on the higher side. If EB3I were to get~12000 (10000 Spillover + 2806), we can expect a 10 month movement from the date that it gets to in current year.

Filing dates for EB3I should reach mid 2011 next year if all goes well. Again, this is a guesstimate....

And your expectation for EB2?

[redsox2009]

Just to add, we will most likely get in excess of 70K spillover from FB.


I'm thinking around 50K, I think CO will try to move the dates for FB and utilize the numbers for FB. But the question would be, can the Consulates handle the scheduling.

[jimmys]

I'm thinking around 50K, I think CO will try to move the dates for FB and utilize the numbers for FB. But the question would be, can the Consulates handle the scheduling.

Even with 50K spillover to EB categories, can the USCIS FOs can handle that much in person interviews in FY 21?

[NJMavarick]

I'm thinking around 50K, I think CO will try to move the dates for FB and utilize the numbers for FB. But the question would be, can the Consulates handle the scheduling.

Apart from the 2 months of officially being closed, most consulates were already closed approx 45 days before. While CO can certainly move the FB dates but I do not think that would align with the current admin. Furthermore, there would not be many AOS cases for FB in the US and I strongly feel that this ban is going to be extended further. This is obviously apart from the fact if the consulates can handle the scheduling as you mentioned..

[NJMavarick]

Even with 50K spillover to EB categories, can the USCIS FOs can handle that much in person interviews in FY 21?

That is a valid question but at the least most of the eligible folks will get the EAD. Heck, I am so desperate that I would take that in the interim.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://www.law360.com/articles/1267199/trump-s-green-card-ban-may-free-up-more-employment-visas

The lawyer lobby has already started highlighting how this will help EB based immigration. This will end well for us.

[ferric]

https://www.law360.com/articles/1267199/trump-s-green-card-ban-may-free-up-more-employment-visas

The lawyer lobby has already started highlighting how this will help EB based immigration. This will end well for us.

Yeah, I think people here are being overly optimistic. :) Most likely 2 months of pause and then the FB GC queue will move again, there won't be any extra spillover due to the pause.

[mcmilers]

https://www.law360.com/articles/1267199/trump-s-green-card-ban-may-free-up-more-employment-visas

The lawyer lobby has already started highlighting how this will help EB based immigration. This will end well for us.

Sorry. but are you being sarcastic?

[jimmys]

That is a valid question but at the least most of the eligible folks will get the EAD. Heck, I am so desperate that I would take that in the interim.
With too much unemployment and mandatory in-person interview, USCIS will have a great control of who's getting visas. I suspect Qs theory of policy decision in allocating visas will be very much in play irrespective of who wins in November.

Nevertheless, FY 21 is expected to be a good year for EB2/EB3 India.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Sorry. but are you being sarcastic?

Yeah sorry, should have added the /s at the end.

These guys are really pathetic. All the time it's about DACA, Diversity, Familly Immigration! I mean what about people who have been here 20 years and still renewing work visas and have no certainty of coming back if they leave the country?

Now they will circulate these everywhere around with somber nods and affirmations from their cronies in DC and make sure the right people hear it put in the necessary roadblocks. Why would they want to lose the revenue of thousands of people like us stuck in backlogs?

Editing post to update that a lawsuit has already been filed: https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/04/27/lawsuit-asks-judge-to-stop-trump-immigration-order/#33424889131b

[NJMavarick]

With too much unemployment and mandatory in-person interview, USCIS will have a great control of who's getting visas. I suspect Qs theory of policy decision in allocating visas will be very much in play irrespective of who wins in November.

Nevertheless, FY 21 is expected to be a good year for EB2/EB3 India.

I think if the dates move in July, then maybe that could a pointer of things to come in October..

[redsox2009]

can the USCIS FOs can handle that much in person interviews in FY 21?


USCIS can handle the in-person interviews without any issue, but if COVID conditions continue then that will be a different story.

[idliman]

Checkin with Charlie Does not have additional projection 28APR2020 has been published in Shusterman's website.

Like most of us, Charlie is working remotely and only travels to his office when necessary to perform certain functions of his job. As Charlie’s predictions are based upon data from certain government databases which cannot be accessed remotely, during this month’s conversation with AILA he was unable to pull statistics on visa number usage in real time. As a result, we are unable to provide more nuanced projections in this month’s column.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

[jimmys]

USCIS can handle the in-person interviews without any issue, but if COVID conditions continue then that will be a different story.

No issues? I'm not sure about that. Even without covid-19, many FOs are already backlogged.

[bloddy1]

Checkin with Charlie Does not have additional projection 28APR2020 has been published in Shusterman's website.
[/URL]

Are you talking about May Projections or just projection in general. Not sure how meaningful these are at this time. But May bulletin is already out, so regardless of what one may say w.r.t to spillover, etc., dont think there is any optimal way that EB2/3-I get meaningful relief despite green cards go unused.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-may-2020.html

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Checkin with Charlie Does not have additional projection 28APR2020 has been published in Shusterman's website.

Like most of us, Charlie is working remotely and only travels to his office when necessary to perform certain functions of his job. As Charlie’s predictions are based upon data from certain government databases which cannot be accessed remotely, during this month’s conversation with AILA he was unable to pull statistics on visa number usage in real time. As a result, we are unable to provide more nuanced projections in this month’s column.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

I guess unlike us who are living and working in the 21st century, Charlie does not have access to VPNs.

[Tandav]

Checkin with Charlie Does not have additional projection 28APR2020 has been published in Shusterman's website.

Like most of us, Charlie is working remotely and only travels to his office when necessary to perform certain functions of his job. As Charlie’s predictions are based upon data from certain government databases which cannot be accessed remotely, during this month’s conversation with AILA he was unable to pull statistics on visa number usage in real time. As a result, we are unable to provide more nuanced projections in this month’s column.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

It is possible to find out some reason/exscuse for not using the spillover this year, as well as next year.

[NJMavarick]

Are you talking about May Projections or just projection in general. Not sure how meaningful these are at this time. But May bulletin is already out, so regardless of what one may say w.r.t to spillover, etc., dont think there is any optimal way that EB2/3-I get meaningful relief despite green cards go unused.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-may-2020.html

Looking at your comments, it is very much possible you are not aware of "Check-In with Charlie" which happens on a monthly basis and which sets a precedent of the bulletin to come. I understand given the circumstances we can be pessimist at times but I would say hold your horses until July. If dates move in July then its likely the spill over will be applied next year.

[NJMavarick]

It is possible to find out some reason/exscuse for not using the spillover this year, as well as next year.

Everything is possible and nothing is ruled out. However, it is also possible that the dates may move and spill over is applied.

[NJMavarick]

No issues? I'm not sure about that. Even without covid-19, many FOs are already backlogged.

I think in the best case scenario, the Filing Dates would be moved substantially to generate demand and then the FAD will be used to control the issuance of GCs.

[qesehmk]

So here is a window into CO's mind. Hopefully I am correct.

If I were CO - I would be more concerned about Family category right now. That category is more affected and is going to create more unused visas because not only the category size is bigger but the CP vs AOS mix is bigger. If CO does not move quickly to forward AOS dates in FB category then the category may have lots of unused visas that will go to EB category (by law).

The trouble is - unlike EB, FB category may not have huge AOS backlog to play with. So simply moving dates ahead does not guarantee consumption of all available visas. It may mean only giving 485 benefits to 50K more people (something Trump administration definitely does not like).

So CO is going to be in a tricky situation. That's why he is unwilling to say anything at this moment. On EB side - I think it is given that the dates will move a bit further than otherwise they would have. And likely the backlogged candidates will get 4-6K extra visas. But remember not all of those will go to EB2/3-India. There is backlog in EB1 too. Don't forget that.

So the real gamechanger is FB spillover and how it will impact EB next year.

[NJMavarick]

So here is a window into CO's mind. Hopefully I am correct.

If I were CO - I would be more concerned about Family category right now. That category is more affected and is going to create more unused visas because not only the category size is bigger but the CP vs AOS mix is bigger. If CO does not move quickly to forward AOS dates in FB category then the category may have lots of unused visas that will go to EB category (by law).

The trouble is - unlike EB, FB category may not have huge AOS backlog to play with. So simply moving dates ahead does not guarantee consumption of all available visas. It may mean only giving 485 benefits to 50K more people (something Trump administration definitely does not like).

So CO is going to be a tricky situation. That's why he is unwilling to say anything at this moment. On EB side - I think it is given that the dates will move a bit further than otherwise they would have. And likely the backlogged candidates will get 4-6K extra visas. But remember not all of those will go to EB2/3-India. There is backlog in EB1 too. Don't forget that.

So the real gamechanger is FB spillover and how it will impact EB next year.

Thank you Q! Your insight is always valuable. What do you think, will the Admin stop the spill over of FB visas to EB? They could potentially get to close 6 figures..

[qesehmk]

Thank you Q! Your insight is always valuable. What do you think, will the Admin stop the spill over of FB visas to EB? They could potentially get to close 6 figures..
Thanks Mav. We are all guessing. So my guess may be only slightly better because of years of "experience" in these topics.

I think Trump admin hates all kinds of immigration. In that sense, they don't play favorites. But given its election year, they might remain passive and let the situation benefit EB backlog which is mostly Indian.

[monsieur]

I agree to disagree Q, Trump will not favour EB category just because its Indian who are suffering. This is side effect of his strong dislike to FB immigration which he calls as chain migration.

Trump admin is/was trying to push for Merit Based Immigration policy, so there is a chance they will let flow of FB to EB visa because its lesser of 2 evil. This also helps in terms that its a business friendly policy which is relatively easy sell and get donations from corps.

Don't get me wrong, they will not do happily, its more that they hate chain migration more than merit migration. If they can get away, they will shutdown both EB and FB.

[qesehmk]

I agree to disagree Q, Trump will not favour EB category just because its Indian who are suffering. This is side effect of his strong dislike to FB immigration which he calls as chain migration.

Trump admin is/was trying to push for Merit Based Immigration policy, so there is a chance they will let flow of FB to EB visa because its lesser of 2 evil. This also helps in terms that its a business friendly policy which is relatively easy sell and get donations from corps.

Don't get me wrong, they will not do happily, its more that they hate chain migration more than merit migration. If they can get away, they will shutdown both EB and FB.
I think that's what I am saying too. They don't have favorites. They hate both kind of immigration. But they may passively let the situation benefit EB.
Where is disagreement :confused: !!

[altek001]

EB2/3 India hasn't moved much since 2015. Since EB india and china are the only affected categories by the backlog, USCIS/ DOS will ensure FB visa spillover isn't provided to these two countries. Trump is against chinese taking Tech/IP back to china and the rest in trump admin will ensure EB-India loathes in backlog, as this is in their best interest. Visa capture is a long shot that will never happen.

Analysis from these articles spew only hatred to Americans.
https://www.law360.com/articles/1267199/trump-s-green-card-ban-may-free-up-more-employment-visas

Please do not keep any hopes on FB visa spillover, and make decisions in the best interests of your family.

[jimmys]

EB2/3 India hasn't moved much since 2015.

Whilst I agree with EB2-India, the EB-3 India moved from Dec 2004 in 2015 to Mar 2009 in 2020. It's about 4+ years movement in 4+ years. For EB-3 India it's not that bad.

[Blue_fairy]

There is a lot of debate about whether or not Trump's EO will benefit the EB community. No one knows for sure, but what leading indicators would you watch out for, starting from the June VB, to inform yourself?

[jimmys]

There is a lot of debate about whether or not Trump's EO will benefit the EB community. No one knows for sure, but what leading indicators would you watch out for, starting from the June VB, to inform yourself?

The ballpark number of FB spillover to EB in FY 21 will be known at the end of October/early November 2020.

As per whereismygc, the FB spillover is going to be ~35K for the EB category. Given whereismygc's earlier predictions, it's most likely going to be the vicinity of 35K. In that case, EB1/EB2/EB3 each will receive ~9975. In EB2/EB3 India will benefit a lot from it.

[rabp77]

The ballpark number of FB spillover to EB in FY 21 will be known at the end of October/early November 2020.

As per whereismygc, the FB spillover is going to be ~35K for the EB category. Given whereismygc's earlier predictions, it's most likely going to be the vicinity of 35K. In that case, EB1/EB2/EB3 each will receive ~9975. In EB2/EB3 India will benefit a lot from it.

If the spillover to EB2/Eb3 will be 9975 each, then will this be spread across all countires, and based on the 7% pre country cap, the additional available to EB2-I/EB3-I will be just around ~685 ?

[Zenzone]

If the spillover to EB2/Eb3 will be 9975 each, then will this be spread across all countires, and based on the 7% pre country cap, the additional available to EB2-I/EB3-I will be just around ~685 ?

yes..but also the assumption is if ROW is current in the respective EB category that will again flow back as horizontal SO to India (most backlogged).

[Greenc]

Hello NJMavarick,
Wanted to understand the FB spillover better, when you say "If EB2ROW is current then 28600 would go to EB2I completely" would this be at the end of FY2021 or the beginning ?

[monsieur]

Horizontal spillover is generally applied in last qtr. But CO has discretion to apply it earlier as he has data to look into trends and utilization in given category.

[Greenc]

Thank you. Now I get the speculation of dates moving in last quarter of FY2020

[NJMavarick]

Hello NJMavarick,
Wanted to understand the FB spillover better, when you say "If EB2ROW is current then 28600 would go to EB2I completely" would this be at the end of FY2021 or the beginning ?

The FB spill over will be applied starting October 2020 which is the start of the new fiscal year. Again, no one can accurately predict the exact spill over number but my guess would be between 50K - 100K. This again depends upon the IV visa ban being extended or not.

It is up-to to current admin to apply the spillover. There is no rule to say that they have to pass the numbers to EB.

[oraclept]

I have question. Trump has signed banning GCs through consular processing whoever is outside USA. Does it also affect EB GCs outside USA ? Like EB1, Eb3,4 Consular processing ?
On may 23, We will get to recommendations on banning entry for non immigrant visas.?

[GC-Immigrant]

The FB spill over will be applied starting October 2020 which is the start of the new fiscal year. Again, no one can accurately predict the exact spill over number but my guess would be between 50K - 100K. This again depends upon the IV visa ban being extended or not.

It is up-to to current admin to apply the spillover. There is no rule to say that they have to pass the numbers to EB.

Thanks for your analysis. FB spillover to EB catagory is congress mandated law right? also as per this lawyer tweet, "26,000 green cards a month will move over to the employment based system, in October of this year"

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status/1253264588029779969?s=20

[qesehmk]

I have question. Trump has signed banning GCs through consular processing whoever is outside USA. Does it also affect EB GCs outside USA ? Like EB1, Eb3,4 Consular processing ?
On may 23, We will get to recommendations on banning entry for non immigrant visas.?

Looks like nobody answered. So I will.

1) All CP is stopped except EB5.
2) I am not aware of any news on non-immigrant visas

[android09]

Looks like nobody answered. So I will.

1) All CP is stopped except EB5.
2) I am not aware of any news on non-immigrant visas

qesehmk, what are you seeing as possibilities for EB2 I for early 2011 in the current situation. Any expectations for 2011 cases? Ideally, how far can the spillover go if allocated?

[qesehmk]

qesehmk, what are you seeing as possibilities for EB2 I for early 2011 in the current situation. Any expectations for 2011 cases? Ideally, how far can the spillover go if allocated?Android I stopped doing manual calculations long time back. You will have to calculate yourself. I am sorry.

[NJMavarick]

qesehmk, what are you seeing as possibilities for EB2 I for early 2011 in the current situation. Any expectations for 2011 cases? Ideally, how far can the spillover go if allocated?

Android - It all depends upon the spill over number. However, if the admin ban gets extended beyond the 60 days and the FB spill over is applied. EB2I early 2011 is a possibility.

[android09]

Android - It all depends upon the spill over number. However, if the admin ban gets extended beyond the 60 days and the FB spill over is applied. EB2I early 2011 is a possibility.

Thank you. I'm in 2013 but want this line to start moving.

[Greenc]

If anyone has come across this news. Any idea from where these unused numbers coming from ?

https://www.rollcall.com/2020/04/30/green-card-bill-would-bring-more-foreign-doctors-nurses-to-us/

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Some more updates from Murthy:

https://www.murthy.com/2020/05/13/updated-visa-bulletin-information-and-predictions/

[redsox2009]

Starting from this month I'm expecting significant movement for EB2 and EB3 Indians. From July we will see more aggressive movements for Indians.

[Pundit Arjun]

Lets hope all these news does turn positive for folks waiting for years... Like Q said few days, we have all seen this same movie play out every few years [Gloom & Doom] and not give anything positive.
Hope the guys waiting for EAD get a chance to file and get them soon.

For folks waiting for GC, just forget [if possible] and carry on with life... It will happen at some point....

[idliman]

Starting from this month I'm expecting significant movement for EB2 and EB3 Indians. From July we will see more aggressive movements for Indians.
Tathastu. The most relevant details are in this paragraph.

Mr. Oppenheim also explained that approximately 95 percent of family-based cases are processed at consulates, while 85 percent of employment-based cases are processed by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) via adjustment-of-status applications. Given that consulates across the globe have closed due to the pandemic, Mr. Oppenheim expects there will be many unused immigrant visa numbers for cases being processed through consulates. This could result in the USCIS having more visa numbers to use for adjustment-of-status cases this fiscal year.
I wounder why he left out EB2/EB3. Maybe a) he wants the extra 10 days in this month to get better demand or b) he is withholding information to be revealed at this month's Check-in.

[jimmys]

Starting from this month I'm expecting significant movement for EB2 and EB3 Indians. From July we will see more aggressive movements for Indians.

Been there many times. Hopes were burned to ashes every single time. I will believe it when I see it.

[Zenzone]

Tathastu. The most relevant details are in this paragraph.

I wounder why he left out EB2/EB3. Maybe a) he wants the extra 10 days in this month to get better demand or b) he is withholding information to be revealed at this month's Check-in.

Is he not talking in general about SO from CP to AOS backlog agnostic to whether its FB or EB?

[NJMavarick]

Is he not talking in general about SO from CP to AOS backlog agnostic to whether its FB or EB?

He made a generic comment but the following statement "This could result in the USCIS having more visa numbers to use for adjustment-of-status cases this fiscal year." would be more relevant for EB as he mentioned that 95% of FB are CP.

[qesehmk]

He made a generic comment but the following statement "This could result in the USCIS having more visa numbers to use for adjustment-of-status cases this fiscal year." would be more relevant for EB as he mentioned that 95% of FB are CP.

That is indeed true. Just keep in mind ... those numbers are still modest ... because they will be half year CP numbers within category EB2 and EB 3 only. No category now a days gives away numbers to other .... so just want people to not have very high hopes.

[NJMavarick]

That is indeed true. Just keep in mind ... those numbers are still modest ... because they will be half year CP numbers within category EB2 and EB 3 only. No category now a days gives away numbers to other .... so just want people to not have very high hopes.

Sure. However, would we not have the 4.5K FB spill over available for EB2I considering EBROW is current and in addition the balance 1.4K number from the current quota? I am not expecting the dates move drastically but a 1-3 month FAD movement is possible for EB2I

[qesehmk]

Sure. However, would we not have the 4.5K FB spill over available for EB2I considering EBROW is current and in addition the balance 1.4K number from the current quota? I am not expecting the dates move drastically but a 1-3 month FAD movement is possible for EB2I
I have never seen EB get numbers from FB in the same fiscal year. The numbers fall across next year.

I think couple of months movement is given for both EB2 and 3. (just a guess i haven't actually run the numbers).

[rocketfast]

I have never seen EB get numbers from FB in the same fiscal year. The numbers fall across next year.

I think couple of months movement is given for both EB2 and 3. (just a guess i haven't actually run the numbers).

Q,
I think he means last year's FB spillover of 16,000 would result in 4.5k to EB2 and since EB2ROW is current, and if its usage is not high, that 4.5k may come to EB2-I

[Ind2009]

We should get some clarity on the projections soon.
June Bulletin should be out this evening or tomorrow by latest.
I have no inside information but the Visa Bulletin page https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html has an error message in place of the current and upcoming bulletin link and the page content under Fiscal year 2020 already has the link for June 2020 which is taking to a page that is not yet live.
So someone is currently working on the update.
Good luck for all in the queue.

[eaglenow]

Quick question. The country caps are applied on the overall numbers of both EB and FB. Given the pause in CP, the numbers normally used by EB CP and FB CP by India will now not be used. So the EB numbers will be available for AOS. And the FB number will spill over to next fiscal year. But since FB numbers are not used, shouldn’t that increase the EB country cap numbers this fiscal year?

Does anyone see anything wrong with the assumption above?

[qesehmk]

Q,
I think he means last year's FB spillover of 16,000 would result in 4.5k to EB2 and since EB2ROW is current, and if its usage is not high, that 4.5k may come to EB2-I
Totally agree. Sorry I misunderstood.

[abcx13]

Quick question. The country caps are applied on the overall numbers of both EB and FB. Given the pause in CP, the numbers normally used by EB CP and FB CP by India will now not be used. So the EB numbers will be available for AOS. And the FB number will spill over to next fiscal year. But since FB numbers are not used, shouldn’t that increase the EB country cap numbers this fiscal year?

Does anyone see anything wrong with the assumption above?

It's a good point. I didn't think of that.

It seems FB-I used ~14k visas per DoS visa statistics (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2019.html) (a little under 7% of 226k FB visas, which is a bit surprising?) out of which some 13k were CP FB. I don't know how many FB were used by India this FY before the EO went in effect, but assuming CP FB is blocked for the rest the FY, then I think you are right that those should be available to EB-I AoS candidates unless there are FB-I AoS candidates in the US with later PDs who can pick up the slack from FB-I CP.

[rocketfast]

It's a good point. I didn't think of that.

It seems FB-I used ~14k visas per DoS visa statistics (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2019.html) (a little under 7% of 226k FB visas, which is a bit surprising?) out of which some 13k were CP FB. I don't know how many FB were used by India this FY before the EO went in effect, but assuming CP FB is blocked for the rest the FY, then I think you are right that those should be available to EB-I AoS candidates unless there are FB-I AoS candidates in the US with later PDs who can pick up the slack from FB-I CP.

Good points. Since every country wouldn't have used FB, they can't increase it to every country. But conversely, they should decrease South Korea and Phillipines EB allocation. Would be interesting to see what Spec thinks.

[Spectator]

Good points. Since every country wouldn't have used FB, they can't increase it to every country. But conversely, they should decrease South Korea and Phillipines EB allocation. Would be interesting to see what Spec thinks.

Just to make sure we're talking about the same concept, I believe the discussion relates to the distribution of the overall 7% in FY2020.

For those not familiar with the workings of this, the 7% limit is set on the sum of FB & EB allocations for a FY.

For FY2020, this would be (226,000 + 156,500) * 7% = 26,775

Prorated for FB and EB this would be 15,820 and 10,955 respectively.

If a Country does not meet the 7% limit in FB, then EB can benefit from extra approvals as long as the overall 7% limit is not exceeded.

This is why South Korea can have higher approvals in EB, since they have very few FB approvals.

As far as India goes, here's the FB approvals for FY2019 (AOS & CP).

Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
India ----------- 275 -- 1,619 ---- 273 -- 4,316 -- 7,454 -- 13,937

Of those, these are the CP figures:

Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
India ----------- 225 -- 1,222 ---- 226 -- 4,193 -- 7,406 -- 13,272

From this, we can calculate that 95.2% of India FB approvals were Consular Processed.

For FY2020, to the end of March 2020 (i.e. Q1 + Q2) the CP figures for India are:

Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
India ------------ 74 ---- 500 ---- 107 -- 1,365 -- 3,557 --- 5,603

The figures above should give you a base to speculate on how this particular issue may evolve, given the current situation.

To be clear, this is entirely separate from any increased approvals due to FB under use in the previous FY, or vertical or horizontal spillover in the current FY.

This is about distribution within the current FY against the overall 7% per Country limit.

You can follow the monthly movement of CP, thanks to redsox, in this thread (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards).

Hope that helps.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html

Very interesting and fishy as well.

The Visa Bulletin
Error:
USCIS, in coordination with Department of State (DOS), is revising the procedures for determining visa availability for applicants waiting to file for employment-based or family-sponsored preference adjustment of status. The revised process will better align with procedures DOS uses for foreign nationals who seek to become U.S. permanent residents by applying for immigrant visas at U.S. consulates and embassies abroad.

[rainmaker12]

Just to make sure we're talking about the same concept, I believe the discussion relates to the distribution of the overall 7% in FY2020.

For tose not familiar with the workings of this, the 7% limit is set on the summ of FB & EB allocations for a FY.

For FY2020, this would be (226,000 + 156,500) * 7% = 26,775

Prorated for FB and EB this would be 15,820 and 10,955 respectively.

If a Country does not meet the 7% limit in FB, then EB can benefit from extra approvals as long as the overall 7% limit is not exceeded.

This is why South Korea can have higher approvals in EB, since they have very few FB approvals.

As far as India goes, heres the FB approvals for FY2019 (AOS & CP).

Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
India ----------- 275 -- 1,619 ---- 273 -- 4,316 -- 7,454 -- 13,937

Of those, these are the CP figures:

Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
India ----------- 225 -- 1,222 ---- 226 -- 4,193 -- 7,406 -- 13,272

From this, we can calculate that 95.2% of India FB approvals were Consular Processed.

For FY2020, to the end of March 2020 (i.e. Q1 + Q2) the CP figures for India are:

Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
India ------------ 74 ---- 500 ---- 107 -- 1,365 -- 3,557 --- 5,603

The figures above should give you a base to speculate on how this particular issue may evolve, given the current situation.

To be clear, this is entirely separate from any increased approvals due to FB under use in the previous FY, or vertical or horizontal spillover in the current FY.

This is about distribution within the current FY against the overall 7% per Country limit.

You can follow the monthly movement of CP, thanks to redsox, in this thread (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards).

Hope that helps.

Excellent explanation and helpful. Thanks for the info Spectator.

[NeelVohra]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin.html

Very interesting and fishy as well.

The Visa Bulletin
Error:
USCIS, in coordination with Department of State (DOS), is revising the procedures for determining visa availability for applicants waiting to file for employment-based or family-sponsored preference adjustment of status. The revised process will better align with procedures DOS uses for foreign nationals who seek to become U.S. permanent residents by applying for immigrant visas at U.S. consulates and embassies abroad.

The quoted URL leads to Revised Procedures for AOS (https://www.uscis.gov/archive/uscis-announces-revised-procedures-determining-visa-availability-applicants-waiting-file-adjustment-status)

That leads to a link about the Visa Bulletin change from 2015 when the 2 charts per category was introduced. I think this is in error rather than some new change we should expect.

[aquatican]

The quoted URL leads to Revised Procedures for AOS
(https://www.uscis.gov/archive/uscis-announces-revised-procedures-determining-visa-availability-applicants-waiting-file-adjustment-status)
It seems like they started releasing the June bulletin and then changed their mind and forgot to revert to the older page sigh. ha

[rabp77]

Quick question. The country caps are applied on the overall numbers of both EB and FB. Given the pause in CP, the numbers normally used by EB CP and FB CP by India will now not be used. So the EB numbers will be available for AOS. And the FB number will spill over to next fiscal year. But since FB numbers are not used, shouldn’t that increase the EB country cap numbers this fiscal year?

Does anyone see anything wrong with the assumption above?

The fact that country caps are applied to EB + FB, means if FB india has not yet used 7% of total available for FB, then effectively the number that can be used by EB-I can be increased. So if there is horizontal spill over from ROW, then this can increase whats available for EB-I. This is likely to benefit EB1-I and EB2-I the most this year, because their ROW categories are current. EB3-ROW is nearly 3 years behind, so the spill over benefit for EB3I is likely to be lower if any. I hope i am wrong, and EB3-I also gets to benefit.

Based on Spec's numbers above, it looks like EB-I would have at max around 7,000-10,000 additional numbers available (assuming there are no approvals after march). i believe most this will benefit EB1-I and EB2-I as additional horizontal spillover from ROW. Though i hope EB3 benefits.

[LASHAB]

The quoted URL leads to Revised Procedures for AOS (https://www.uscis.gov/archive/uscis-announces-revised-procedures-determining-visa-availability-applicants-waiting-file-adjustment-status)

It seems like they started releasing the June bulletin and then changed their mind and forgot to revert to the older page sigh. ha

Update on the visa bulletin slide
USCIS, in coordination with Department of State (DOS), is revising the procedures for determining visa availability for applicants waiting to file for employment-based or family-sponsored preference adjustment of status. The revised process will better align with procedures DOS uses for foreign nationals who seek to become U.S. permanent residents by applying for immigrant visas at U.S. consulates and embassies abroad.

This revised process will enhance DOS’s ability to more accurately predict overall immigrant visa demand and determine the cut-off dates for visa issuance published in the Visa Bulletin. This will help ensure that the maximum number of immigrant visas are issued annually as intended by Congress, and minimize month-to-month fluctuations in Visa Bulletin final action dates.

[maverick2010]

Can anyone please let me know how many EB2-I approximate numbers are there from June 2009 to May 2010? Thanks for your help!

[abcx13]

The fact that country caps are applied to EB + FB, means if FB india has not yet used 7% of total available for FB, then effectively the number that can be used by EB-I can be increased. So if there is horizontal spill over from ROW, then this can increase whats available for EB-I. This is likely to benefit EB1-I and EB2-I the most this year, because their ROW categories are current. EB3-ROW is nearly 3 years behind, so the spill over benefit for EB3I is likely to be lower if any. I hope i am wrong, and EB3-I also gets to benefit.

Based on Spec's numbers above, it looks like EB-I would have at max around 7,000-10,000 additional numbers available (assuming there are no approvals after march). i believe most this will benefit EB1-I and EB2-I as additional horizontal spillover from ROW. Though i hope EB3 benefits.

I might be wrong, but doesn't this mean that regardless of spillover from ROW, EB-I can use the visas up to 7% of EB + FB that FB-I is not using? In other words, EB should processed in order of priority date up to the EB-I 7% cap at least, which is now higher? Unless of course CO decides to screw India somehow.

[rocketfast]

I might be wrong, but doesn't this mean that regardless of spillover from ROW, EB-I can use the visas up to 7% of EB + FB that FB-I is not using? In other words, EB should processed in order of priority date up to the EB-I 7% cap at least, which is now higher? Unless of course CO decides to screw India somehow.

Interesting point. The hypothetical order of CO:

1. Gives every country 7% of EB2 (i.e 7% of 43,680).
2. If there is excess still remaining, he will look for countries that have not taken 7% in EB+FB and give it to them.

But this year, every country will fall in this category. So will he distribute remaining equally to all countries that don't meet EB+FB = 7% ? Or will he first fill up EB2-I to reach 7% in EB+FB first as it is of oldest PD. I think he will do former. So both South Korea and India should get equal distribution.

3. EB2-I gets anything leftover.

[rocketfast]

Can anyone please let me know how many EB2-I approximate numbers are there from June 2009 to May 2010? Thanks for your help!

This data is public. You can google for "I-485 inventory"

[TheLureoftheGreen]

I might be wrong, but doesn't this mean that regardless of spillover from ROW, EB-I can use the visas up to 7% of EB + FB that FB-I is not using? In other words, EB should processed in order of priority date up to the EB-I 7% cap at least, which is now higher? Unless of course CO decides to screw India somehow.

Yes. As Spec noted, this is about the distribution of the 7% of the total visas available for FB-I and EB-I in FY20. If FB-I is expected to consume fewer visas in FY20 compared to FY19, EB-I's allocation would have to increase so as to meet the 7% annual target for this year. FB-I consumed (via CP) ~13,300 visas in FY19. It has consumed only about 5,600 visas through Q2 in FY20. And the 60 day CP moratorium potentially exacerbates the problem for FB-I.

Any horizontal spillover from EBROW to EB-I, will be incremental (but would not be applied until the next FY; this is separate from the ~16,500 spillover from FY19, which would be applied this year).

[qesehmk]

Folks the 7% across EB + FB is the convenient discretion that DoS has created. It has no legal basis. Spec or anybody else, if I am wrong, please guide me to a legal source.

I have raised this issue for a very long time that
1) such thing has no basis anywhere.
2) even if so 7% is not entitlement by any stretch of imagination
3) even if it is considered entitlement it no way allows visas to be issued across EB and FB in the same year. e.g. underallocating EB because a country consumed more in FB under the 7% across EB-FB rule.

Those who engage in advocacy, please take note of this and accordingly monitor this kind of treatment. My own explanation of all these novel interpretations is that DoS/DHS always have a bias against granting GCs to Indian H1Bs. The reason behind the bias in my opinion is that DoS likes diversity (it is one of their core objectives). Thus this is a systemic issue in my opinion rather than a racist one.

[TheLureoftheGreen]

Folks the 7% across EB + FB is the convenient discretion that DoS has created. It has no legal basis. Spec or anybody else, if I am wrong, please guide me to a legal source.

I have raised this issue for a very long time that
1) such thing has no basis anywhere.
2) even if so 7% is not entitlement by any stretch of imagination
3) even if it is considered entitlement it no way allows visas to be issued across EB and FB in the same year. e.g. underallocating EB because a country consumed more in FB under the 7% across EB-FB rule.

Those who engage in advocacy, please take note of this and accordingly monitor this kind of treatment. My own explanation of all these novel interpretations is that DoS/DHS always have a bias against granting GCs to Indian H1Bs. The reason behind the bias in my opinion is that DoS likes diversity (it is one of their core objectives). Thus this is a systemic issue in my opinion rather than a racist one.

Sage advice there, Q.

Re: your points 1-3, has the DHS, however, set a general precedent based on how it has previously used this discretion? I'd think that how DHS has exercised its discretion has evolved over the past few years, but I doubt it could/would want to just constantly change its process year over year to ensure diversity. Maybe I am being naive. I just think they'd not want to risk looking like there is indeed a clear bias against granting GCs to India H1Bs (even if the source of that bias is not based on malice).

[jimmys]

The fact that country caps are applied to EB + FB, means if FB india has not yet used 7% of total available for FB, then effectively the number that can be used by EB-I can be increased. So if there is horizontal spill over from ROW, then this can increase whats available for EB-I. This is likely to benefit EB1-I and EB2-I the most this year, because their ROW categories are current. EB3-ROW is nearly 3 years behind, so the spill over benefit for EB3I is likely to be lower if any. I hope i am wrong, and EB3-I also gets to benefit.

Based on Spec's numbers above, it looks like EB-I would have at max around 7,000-10,000 additional numbers available (assuming there are no approvals after march). i believe most this will benefit EB1-I and EB2-I as additional horizontal spillover from ROW. Though i hope EB3 benefits.

Last two years EB-3 India got ~2000 more visas than EB-2 India. I don't see a reason why that can't happen this year as well.

[qesehmk]

Sage advice there, Q.

Re: your points 1-3, has the DHS, however, set a general precedent based on how it has previously used this discretion? I'd think that how DHS has exercised its discretion has evolved over the past few years, but I doubt it could/would want to just constantly change its process year over year to ensure diversity. Maybe I am being naive. I just think they'd not want to risk looking like there is indeed a clear bias against granting GCs to India H1Bs (even if the source of that bias is not based on malice).

To my knowledge, the DHS and DOS started this practice at least 8 years back. Unless somebody challenges this in courts - this will continue.

p.s. - This is just one way to limit EB-IC immigration. They have done many innovative things that limit EB-IC immigration.

[maverick2010]

USCIS inventory website only has April 2018 data. Looks like from June 2009-May 2010 there are approximately 5000 EB-2 numbers showing up. My interpretation seems wrong - I initially thought close to 25,000 EB2-I numbers between June 2009 -May 2010.

Thanks for answering my question.

[rabp77]

Last two years EB-3 India got ~2000 more visas than EB-2 India. I don't see a reason why that can't happen this year as well.

I hope you are right jimmys, and that EB3-I also benefits from horizontal spillover. 2018 and 2019 EB3-ROW had been current for most of the year (around 10-11 months of the year). But in 2020, EB3 FAD was imposed slightly earlier. But i hope i am wrong here.

[eaglenow]

Folks the 7% across EB + FB is the convenient discretion that DoS has created. It has no legal basis. Spec or anybody else, if I am wrong, please guide me to a legal source.

I have raised this issue for a very long time that
1) such thing has no basis anywhere.
2) even if so 7% is not entitlement by any stretch of imagination
3) even if it is considered entitlement it no way allows visas to be issued across EB and FB in the same year. e.g. underallocating EB because a country consumed more in FB under the 7% across EB-FB rule.

Those who engage in advocacy, please take note of this and accordingly monitor this kind of treatment. My own explanation of all these novel interpretations is that DoS/DHS always have a bias against granting GCs to Indian H1Bs. The reason behind the bias in my opinion is that DoS likes diversity (it is one of their core objectives). Thus this is a systemic issue in my opinion rather than a racist one.

1. Agreed, but CO has explained this is how it is done when explaining how S Korea got more than 7%. So this seems to be how the law has been interpreted / Implemented.
2. Absolutely it is not an entitlement, but if there are more than the 7% applicants from a given country, they need to explain why they were not allocated. Or they open themselves to discrimination lawsuits. This may not be applicable if they waste visas due to processing delays or deluge of applications.
3. Actually this is precisely what happened a few years ago when EB3-I did not get 7% allocation and S.Korea got more than its cap. This was explained as country cap met across all EB and FB for India and was not for S Korea and hence EB3-I got less than cap and other got more than cap.

The numbers cannot transfer from FB to EB the same year, but cap is applicable across both in a given year. So if for example, FB is completely stopped for I, then the cap in EB-I cap will still be 7% of FB + EB. The percent doesn’t change, the numbers will.

The attitude of admin depends on who is in power. Obviously this admin does not want any immigration. They may not like certain categories, like Diversity visa etc, but they cannot arbitrarily make decisions without appropriate policy changes, either through memo or through regulation. Otherwise they will get sued.

They can achieve this by putting in policy changes. For example the extreme vetting was put in through a memo, which was used to prevent immigration from some countries. The public charge rule is used to prevent some others. The H1B regulation is being tightened to deny as many as possible through speciality occupation etc. But as a recent court case decision demonstrated, they lost a lawsuit where courts sided with plaintiffs that the admin went beyond the law and they cannot use some of their earlier policy changes to deny h1bs.

As for Bias against India/ China, ther may be the agencies who do not like IC, but they cannot take decisions based on that as they never know who will sue them and who will not. That is a great risk personally as if a pattern is established they become personally liable. So far none of the policy changes seem to be targeting IC, though recent grumbling about China and unemployment numbers could change that.

Let’s see how things turn out in the future.

[nagalap]

When I look at the monthly report PDF for FY2020 for EB Immigrant Visa numbers (sum of both Foreign post and USCIS issued), totals only to approx 14000. Also, when I look at the summary Annual report for FY2019 the EB1 to EB3 (GC+AOS) totals to 121K. Is this not supposed to be only GC = 121K? Where can we find FY2019 EB GC issued numbers?

[nagalap]

1. Based on Monthly PDF reports, the FY2020 Q1+Q2 , EB based GC issued is approx = 14K ( Both issued in US and Consulates Abroad). What happens to the rest? Are they issued in Q3+Q4 as per earlier practices?

2. FY2019 summary report Shows GC+AOS = 121K (Eb1-Eb3). Is this number not supposed to be only GC issued? Where can I find EB only GCs issued by country report for FY2019.

Thank you! and apologies if this was answered earlier!

[mahendra]

Agency struggles to stay afloat. It seeks cash infusion.
What's impact? Staff reductions? More time to adjudicate applications?

[suninphx]

USCIS inventory website only has April 2018 data. Looks like from June 2009-May 2010 there are approximately 5000 EB-2 numbers showing up. My interpretation seems wrong - I initially thought close to 25,000 EB2-I numbers between June 2009 -May 2010.

Thanks for answering my question.

There are ~12.5K pending I-485 for EB2-I for period between Jun 2009 - Apr 2010. Check this:

https://www.aila.org/infonet/processing-time-reports/eb-i-485-inventory/uscis-i-485-employment-inventory-statistics-7-1-18

[maverick2010]

Thank you!

[skpanda]

Last night i was wondering....If USCIS staff do not resume their work on time, even though there may be horizontal/vertical spill over - they will be wasted as they will not be assigned to existing backlog.

Is this possible at all? Or will they tag the applications with a GC nbr and assign them as time permits (i saw that happened couple of years ago).

Any guesses?

[rocketfast]

Last night i was wondering....If USCIS staff do not resume their work on time, even though there may be horizontal/vertical spill over - they will be wasted as they will not be assigned to existing backlog.

Is this possible at all? Or will they tag the applications with a GC nbr and assign them as time permits (i saw that happened couple of years ago).

Any guesses?

You can look at Trackitt monthly approvals for all countries. Both in April and May, there have been approvals (around half of previous months). The numbers are small to make any statistical conclusions, but the general sense I get is that USCIS is working, but at a slower rate.

But it is indeed possible that they will waste visas. That is why, this month's visa bulletin is so much interesting. CO will have a clear view on the usage. So he can move EB2-I and EB3-I a little more aggressively. But on the other hand, in the most recent checkin, he only thought of talking about EB1-I.

[aquatican]

Well the mysterious June Bulletin ! It almost materialized . The page appeared and then it disappeared. So curious what’s going on behind scenes? Was it too conservative or aggressive and needed to be pulled back?

[bloddy1]

Well the mysterious June Bulletin ! It almost materialized . The page appeared and then it disappeared. So curious what’s going on behind scenes? Was it too conservative or aggressive and needed to be pulled back?


Interesting though if they are unable to process or forced to process EB applications, I’m sure all EB folks can make up a significant chunk of money they need but have to wait until October to materialize. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/17/us/immigration-agency-uscis-budget.html

[rabp77]

Interesting though if they are unable to process or forced to process EB applications, I’m sure all EB folks can make up a significant chunk of money they need but have to wait until October to materialize. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/17/us/immigration-agency-uscis-budget.html

another related article : https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/18/politics/uscis-emergency-funding-coronavirus/index.html

[Zenzone]

Well the mysterious June Bulletin ! It almost materialized . The page appeared and then it disappeared. So curious what’s going on behind scenes? Was it too conservative or aggressive and needed to be pulled back?

What do you mean by materialize? Did you see any forward movement?

[mahendra]

Well the mysterious June Bulletin ! It almost materialized . The page appeared and then it disappeared. So curious what’s going on behind scenes? Was it too conservative or aggressive and needed to be pulled back?

Maintenance team might have been asked to hold-up till 22-May

As per EO on 22-Apr,

Sec. 6. Additional Measures.
Within 30 days of the effective date of this proclamation, the Secretary of Labor and the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall review nonimmigrant programs and shall recommend to me other measures appropriate to stimulate the United States economy and ensure the prioritization, hiring, and employment of United States workers.

[Zenzone]

Maintenance team might have been asked to hold-up till 22-May

As per EO on 22-Apr,

Sec. 6. Additional Measures.
Within 30 days of the effective date of this proclamation, the Secretary of Labor and the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall review nonimmigrant programs and shall recommend to me other measures appropriate to stimulate the United States economy and ensure the prioritization, hiring, and employment of United States workers.

Which maintenance team?? What this EO clause has to do with visa bulletin?

[mahendra]

Which maintenance team??
A technical team that works to create web pages for visa bulletin.


What this EO clause has to do with visa bulletin?
Last visa bulletin was postponed and published after EO was signed. So, this visa bulletin might get published after period is over for possible additional measures.

[Zenzone]

A technical team that works to create web pages for visa bulletin.


Last visa bulletin was postponed and published after EO was signed. So, this visa bulletin might get published after period is over for possible additional measures.


Thanks for the clarification.

[redsox2009]

Yesterday DOS released Monthly data, An Interesting point in the data is EB3 got 44 visas, and out of these 44, 43 were issued to Indians. All these 43 were issued outside the country in Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and Manama.

[jimmys]

Yesterday DOS released Monthly data, An Interesting point in the data is EB3 got 44 visas, and out of these 44, 43 were issued to Indians. All these 43 were issued outside the country in Abu Dhabi, Kuwait, and Manama.

I'm so worried about the EB-3 movement should the consulates reopen. EB-3 India consular demand is omnipresent.:(

[qesehmk]

I'm so worried about the EB-3 movement should the consulates reopen. EB-3 India consular demand is omnipresent.:(

Good observation. My guess is the consulates will not open for at least 2 more months. Trump admin has found a way to slow down family immigration - there is no way they are going to let this opportunity go waste

[mrperfect]

June VB is out... EB2 10 day movement ,.. and EB3 1 month... https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-june-2020.html

[paramjit74]

June VB is out... EB2 10 day movement ,.. and EB3 1 month... https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-june-2020.html

YAY. I am finally current in June VB. Did medical and Supp-J in Sep 2018. Any suggestions from vetarans on raising SR etc.?

[aquatican]

Congrats Paramjit ! So happy for you. 11 Years wait but who’s counting .

[delguy]

You can look at Trackitt monthly approvals for all countries. Both in April and May, there have been approvals (around half of previous months). The numbers are small to make any statistical conclusions, but the general sense I get is that USCIS is working, but at a slower rate.

But it is indeed possible that they will waste visas. That is why, this month's visa bulletin is so much interesting. CO will have a clear view on the usage. So he can move EB2-I and EB3-I a little more aggressively. But on the other hand, in the most recent checkin, he only thought of talking about EB1-I.

Unfortunately, CO has become very conservative since the Nov 2014 bulletin fiasco. Since then he never took any aggressive steps, in fact he only played overly defensive as if not to hurt the feelings of someone. He would rather waste visas than move the PDs aggressively. He will not take any chances to upset the admin and anti Indians. Pre Nov 2014, his priority was not to waste any visas but move PDs anticipating future visa allocations. Now a days he dont try to venture into how future demand looks like and move PDs on that. He simply looks into how many visas were allocated in last month and what the monthly quota is. Based on that he conservatively moves the dates even if that results in visa wastage. I think he has been warned not to guess future GC allocations by uscis. He will simply waste visas this year in big numbers.

[EB2IndSep09]

Congrats to all whose dates are current with Jun VB.
Gurus,
Unable to understand what the rationale of CO is for not moving the Dates For Filing especially for EB2 when the FA dates and DFF are just days apart.
He will at least know and build the inventory if he keeps the EB3 and EB2 DFF same. My apologies if this has been already answered and is in archives.

[prabakarb]

June VB is out... EB2 10 day movement ,.. and EB3 1 month... https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-june-2020.html

Also, Eb1 moved 10 months

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Also, Eb1 moved 10 months

Just last week on the Murthy website (https://www.murthy.com/2020/05/13/updated-visa-bulletin-information-and-predictions/): Mr. Oppenheim expects that the EB1 category for India will continue to advance fairly slowly for the rest of the fiscal year. Fiscal year 2020 ends September 30, 2020.

So, bottom-line, no one knows.

[redtogreen]

What is also the rationale behind the very slow movement? Are we already on the verge of exhausting the entire quota of eb2i allocation for this year including the spillover from last year(FB)? Sorry, have not been following the monthly DOS statistics. Is anyone still optimistic and hoping for a more positive movement in the last quarter?

[jimmys]

Just last week on the Murthy website (https://www.murthy.com/2020/05/13/updated-visa-bulletin-information-and-predictions/): Mr. Oppenheim expects that the EB1 category for India will continue to advance fairly slowly for the rest of the fiscal year. Fiscal year 2020 ends September 30, 2020.

So, bottom-line, no one knows.

None of EB1/2/3 India categories had their filing dates moved. Does it mean CO expect EB2-I not to cross Jul 1,2009 in FY 20?

[Grrenzone]

As per pending inventory of 2018, they already have almost 8000 pending 485 applications, assuming 4-5 thousands are processed from July 208 to till date.

Question: EB based horizontal spillover will be applied in last quarter, means from July onwards. Correct?

[Spectator]

Gurus,
Unable to understand what the rationale of CO is for not moving the Dates For Filing especially for EB2 when the FA dates and DFF are just days apart.
He will at least know and build the inventory if he keeps the EB3 and EB2 DFF same. My apologies if this has been already answered and is in archives.

CO already has a significant known Inventory beyond the current Cut Off Dates for both EB2-I and EB3-I as far as I can see.

For EB2-I, the last published Inventory in July 2018 shows in excess of 10k pending cases for July 2009 through April 2010 PD.

EB3-I has had one month when Filing Dates were current (and accepted by USCIS) up to 01APR10 and 6 months when Filing Dates were current (and accepted by USCIS) up to 01FEB10. At minimum, CO has a known EB3-I demand 10 months past the Cut Off Date published in the June VB.

Given that situation, where he already has a good grasp of demand into the future, where is the urgency (for CO) to build it further at this point in time?

My 2 cents anyway.

[EB2IndSep09]

Thanks Spec for sharing your view and agree with your thoughts to certain extent.
However that inventory is from 2018 and as we all including CO knows the EB3 drastic movement of cut off dates that happened later and people started reverse porting.
Wondering if that number would still stand correct and his decision to not move the DFF is correct based on the stale data available. This hurts fewer population who missed the boat to file their AOS 8 years back.

[skpanda]

Quick Question

From the description of the Visa Bulletin:

A. (F2A) Spouses and Children of Permanent Residents: 77% of the overall second preference limitation, of which 75% are exempt from the per-country limit;


How is F2A says 75% of the visa will be exempt from per country limit? Is this part of the Law if yes does not anyone when it was passed? How did they anticipate this need?

[tendlya]

Guys,
Longtime reader of this blog. Just wanted to share that we received card production email this morning. Thanks to everyone here. This blog has helped me over the years. All the best everyone.

[suninphx]

Guys,
Longtime reader of this blog. Just wanted to share that we received card production email this morning. Thanks to everyone here. This blog has helped me over the years. All the best everyone.

Congratulations everyone!! Feels so good to see long timers getting their freedom.

[rabp77]

Guys,
Longtime reader of this blog. Just wanted to share that we received card production email this morning. Thanks to everyone here. This blog has helped me over the years. All the best everyone.

Congratulations Tendlya. Great to hear this.

[newsletter1978]

Hello gurus, my eb2 priority is oct 29, 2009. do you think this date can be reached by fiscal end?

[rpgarimidi]

Hello Friends, My Priority date is Jun 8th 09 which is current in this months' bulletin. My medicals are 4 years old and no changes in case's status. May I know how long I can wait to get RFA for medicals? what to do in case no change to my case's status? I am planning to contact local house representative office to activate my case? Please help me on next steps.

[tendlya]

Thanks suninphx and rabp77!

[Blue_fairy]

Hello gurus, my eb2 priority is oct 29, 2009. do you think this date can be reached by fiscal end?

Heavily depends on USCIS securing a $1.2B funding from Congress. Absent that, USCIS will furlough employees starting 7/1 impacting GC and VISA processing alike.

If things stay normal (what is that these days?), my biased, and unsupported by data, view is that end of October 2009 is possible by March 2021. If it happens earlier, we both will get to party sooner; as my PD is 7th October 2009.

[imdeng]

That's wonderful news tendlya. Congratulations! It is great to see long timers getting through.


Guys,
Longtime reader of this blog. Just wanted to share that we received card production email this morning. Thanks to everyone here. This blog has helped me over the years. All the best everyone.

[idliman]

Heavily depends on USCIS securing a $1.2B funding from Congress. Absent that, USCIS will furlough employees starting 7/1 impacting GC and VISA processing alike.

If things stay normal (what is that these days?), my biased, and unsupported by data, view is that end of October 2009 is possible by March 2021. If it happens earlier, we both will get to party sooner; as my PD is 7th October 2009.
I would think that there is a good chance for both of you and entire 2009 to clear before the end of 2020. I personally hope so. A lot of things are happening such as Reduced demand from CP stoppage, FB stoppage (spillover after October), etc., that are in favor of backlogged folks. With DACA ruling in the air (God forbid another 1 million kids with their DACA EADs expiring), congress will definitely provide some funds to USCIS. What is $1.2B in the midst of trillions ($2T was spent on CARES act). DACA is going to be a big issue once the Supreme court publishes its decision. By end of this month, USCIS will let go about 1000 contracted workforce (from PAE agency) in NBC Kansas City area. NBC will have only about 180 people working mostly on family-based immigration which had a major reduction because of EO. I think USCIS had a hiring freeze and trying to re-organize staff to save cash. So, they will keep running at a reduced capacity.
Let’s be positive and optimistic.

[Blue_fairy]

I would think that there is a good chance for both of you and entire 2009 to clear before the end of 2020. I personally hope so. A lot of things are happening such as Reduced demand from CP stoppage, FB stoppage (spillover after October), etc., that are in favor of backlogged folks. With DACA ruling in the air (God forbid another 1 million kids with their DACA EADs expiring), congress will definitely provide some funds to USCIS. What is $1.2B in the midst of trillions ($2T was spent on CARES act). DACA is going to be a big issue once the Supreme court publishes its decision. By end of this month, USCIS will let go about 1000 contracted workforce (from PAE agency) in NBC Kansas City area. NBC will have only about 180 people working mostly on family-based immigration which had a major reduction because of EO. I think USCIS had a hiring freeze and trying to re-organize staff to save cash. So, they will keep running at a reduced capacity.
Let’s be positive and optimistic.

Wouldn't mind that at all!! Tired of holding the EAD since 2012.

[jimmys]

I would think that there is a good chance for both of you and entire 2009 to clear before the end of 2020. I personally hope so. A lot of things are happening such as Reduced demand from CP stoppage, FB stoppage (spillover after October), etc., that are in favor of backlogged folks. With DACA ruling in the air (God forbid another 1 million kids with their DACA EADs expiring), congress will definitely provide some funds to USCIS. What is $1.2B in the midst of trillions ($2T was spent on CARES act). DACA is going to be a big issue once the Supreme court publishes its decision. By end of this month, USCIS will let go about 1000 contracted workforce (from PAE agency) in NBC Kansas City area. NBC will have only about 180 people working mostly on family-based immigration which had a major reduction because of EO. I think USCIS had a hiring freeze and trying to re-organize staff to save cash. So, they will keep running at a reduced capacity.
Let’s be positive and optimistic.

You're extremely optimistic. Hope this happens.

[newsletter1978]

I would think that there is a good chance for both of you and entire 2009 to clear before the end of 2020. I personally hope so. A lot of things are happening such as Reduced demand from CP stoppage, FB stoppage (spillover after October), etc., that are in favor of backlogged folks. With DACA ruling in the air (God forbid another 1 million kids with their DACA EADs expiring), congress will definitely provide some funds to USCIS. What is $1.2B in the midst of trillions ($2T was spent on CARES act). DACA is going to be a big issue once the Supreme court publishes its decision. By end of this month, USCIS will let go about 1000 contracted workforce (from PAE agency) in NBC Kansas City area. NBC will have only about 180 people working mostly on family-based immigration which had a major reduction because of EO. I think USCIS had a hiring freeze and trying to re-organize staff to save cash. So, they will keep running at a reduced capacity.
Let’s be positive and optimistic.

when you say before end of 2020, are you referring to fiscal or calendar 2020.

[idliman]

when you say before end of 2020, are you referring to fiscal or calendar 2020.
Unlike the experts here who crunch numbers and provide info, my optimism is based on back of napkin calculations only. There are a lot of uncertainties still in play. Will Trump's EO (CP) be extended? Will USCIS get a bailout and operate at normal capacity? Will the FB to EB spillover happen on Oct 2020? How low is ROW's demand before, during and after Covid? How much will be the spillover from EB2-ROW to India? Will EB-I get a higher spillover now that CP is stopped and while considering combined EB+CP against country limit, EB will get more from quota. If some of these line up, it is a no brainier for EB2I PDs crossing 2009. That was the basis of my optimism.
One thing that normal people tracking PDs will know is that the moment CP resumes and EO expires, EB3I dates will retrogress to compensate for all the CP cases. That definitely needs to be watched.

[jimmys]

Unlike the experts here who crunch numbers and provide info, my optimism is based on back of napkin calculations only. There are a lot of uncertainties still in play. Will Trump's EO (CP) be extended? Will USCIS get a bailout and operate at normal capacity? Will the FB to EB spillover happen on Oct 2020? How low is ROW's demand before, during and after Covid? How much will be the spillover from EB2-ROW to India? Will EB-I get a higher spillover now that CP is stopped and while considering combined EB+CP against country limit, EB will get more from quota. If some of these line up, it is a no brainier for EB2I PDs crossing 2009. That was the basis of my optimism.
One thing that normal people tracking PDs will know is that the moment CP resumes and EO expires, EB3I dates will retrogress to compensate for all the CP cases. That definitely needs to be watched.

In normal circumstances EB3I may stall or retrogress should the consulates reopen. But, we don't know the extent of demand and supply for EB3I. Since dates were at July 1,2009 last year itself, many may have approved already at consulates. Last two years EB3I received 2K+ more visas than allocated in spite of EB3-ROW retrogressing towards the end of the FY.

If EB3I is getting more visas like last year along with some FB spillover from last FY, EB3I most likely will advance a few more months in this FY. Then also, CP closures may yield some numbers from ROW/Philippines. I am not sure if all candidates are waived off interviews for EB ROW and other categories. EB2 to EB3 downporting will ease as EB2-I progresses. July 1,2009 for EB-3 India is not out of reach.

I agree that at the end of the FY, EB2 may finish ahead of EB3 but it won't last long.

Next bulletin will set the tone for both EB-2 and EB-3 for this FY.

[need4speed]

If there is such movement, before next bulletin, we should see some medical RFEs at least.

[horizon1012]

Hi Folks,

Looking at all the SO and the spillover news from FB to EB, can someone kindly predict when will be the dates current for 12/2010 EB2-I. My son will be 21 soon and need to plan for his F1 conversion.

Thanks

[imdeng]

I don't think anybody can say anything with any amount of certainty right now. Even if I say that 12/2010 will happen by end of Oct 2022 - will that change anything for you? If I were in your shoes, I will plan for the near worst case scenario - that 12/2010 will not be reached for 5-8 years or so even with recession/CP closure etc.


Hi Folks,

Looking at all the SO and the spillover news from FB to EB, can someone kindly predict when will be the dates current for 12/2010 EB2-I. My son will be 21 soon and need to plan for his F1 conversion.

Thanks

[tendlya]

That's wonderful news tendlya. Congratulations! It is great to see long timers getting through.

Thanks imdeng. Hopefully there is a rapid date movement this year.

[GC-Immigrant]

If CP closure continues until September, your date will be current for October 2020 bulletin.

[AceMan]

Hi Folks,

Looking at all the SO and the spillover news from FB to EB, can someone kindly predict when will be the dates current for 12/2010 EB2-I. My son will be 21 soon and need to plan for his F1 conversion.

Thanks

2 years would be the best case scenario for you.

[NJMavarick]

2 years would be the best case scenario for you.

Its been a while AceMan! How much of a spill over are you expecting?

[EB22010Dec]

Its been a while AceMan! How much of a spill over are you expecting?


I love this forum.
Gustimate for Eb2 2010 ( my pd) is any where between 5 months to 8 years :)
Paid Q's Prediction engine was wrong by -72% last year ( https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2770-WhereismyGC-Forecast-Accuracy)

Real answer - No one knows, there are too many variables.
Do your best and stay positive.

[AceMan]

Its been a while AceMan! How much of a spill over are you expecting?

I would expect everything to spilled over :D.

Jokes apart, the rapid advance movement of EB3-ROW for June aroused the interest after a very long time.

6-9 months movement for EB3 I is what the optimist in me is looking for.

[idliman]

I would expect everything to spilled over :D.

Jokes apart, the rapid advance movement of EB3-ROW for June aroused the interest after a very long time.

6-9 months movement for EB3 I is what the optimist in me is looking for.
AceMan glad to see you. It would be glad to hear from number gurus once in a while to keep up our spirits. I sense that the 50K+ unused CPs in 2020, brought you back. The conditions have been the most favorable this year.

[excalibur123]

I would expect everything to spilled over :D.

Jokes apart, the rapid advance movement of EB3-ROW for June aroused the interest after a very long time.

6-9 months movement for EB3 I is what the optimist in me is looking for.

As if the clocks have been turned back! I remember similar prediction of eb3 reaching mid-2010 from you back in early 2019, when we both were discussing here. And nothing of that sort happened.

CO is determined to keep eb3 behind eb2 to avoid downportings. So expect eb2 to reach July mid to end this year and eb3 to June. As for next year’s spillover, there are too many variables against it so no one should count it.

[jimmys]

As if the clocks have been turned back! I remember similar prediction of eb3 reaching mid-2010 from you back in early 2019, when we both were discussing here. And nothing of that sort happened.

CO is determined to keep eb3 behind eb2 to avoid downportings. So expect eb2 to reach July mid to end this year and eb3 to June. As for next year’s spillover, there are too many variables against it so no one should count it.

I'm not sure CO is trying to stop the downporting. EB-3 filing dates reached Apr 1,2010 in FY 19 and CO still kept the filing dates Feb,2010 in FY20. The filing dates movement pushed a lot of people to downport than FADs, IMO.

[NJMavarick]

I love this forum.
Gustimate for Eb2 2010 ( my pd) is any where between 5 months to 8 years :)
Paid Q's Prediction engine was wrong by -72% last year ( https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2770-WhereismyGC-Forecast-Accuracy)

Real answer - No one knows, there are too many variables.
Do your best and stay positive.

Add me to it! This forum is great to have a sane and respectful conversation unlike the trash talk that happens on Trackitt. I am pretty confident that we would see 2010 FAD for EB2 in the next fiscal. I am also expecting a reasonable 3-4 months FAD movement in next bulletin. This is looking at the pending inventory and the available visas in the last quarter..my 0.02 cents but yes anything is possible in the world of US immigration..Cheers

[NJMavarick]

As if the clocks have been turned back! I remember similar prediction of eb3 reaching mid-2010 from you back in early 2019, when we both were discussing here. And nothing of that sort happened.

CO is determined to keep eb3 behind eb2 to avoid downportings. So expect eb2 to reach July mid to end this year and eb3 to June. As for next year’s spillover, there are too many variables against it so no one should count it.

I think if the last year FB spill over of 4.5 is available to EB2I come July then the FAD dates should easily move to September / October 2009. One thing is for sure that a lot of FB visas would go unused and whether they are applied next year and available is anyone's guess. If they are then we are in for a ride....we will see

[NJMavarick]

I would expect everything to spilled over :D.

Jokes apart, the rapid advance movement of EB3-ROW for June aroused the interest after a very long time.

6-9 months movement for EB3 I is what the optimist in me is looking for.

I am waiting anxiously for the July bulletin and more so curious to see the EB3 dates. The check-in with CO update should be out any day now...lets see what is in there.

[Auser123]

I am waiting anxiously for the July bulletin and more so curious to see the EB3 dates. The check-in with CO update should be out any day now...lets see what is in there.
CO Check-in is a joke he does exactly opposite to what he states in Check-in.
"Eb1 I will move slowly"- it advances 10 months
"Eb3 Row used up all the numbers for 2020" - It advances 11 months
:-)

[Auser123]

As if the clocks have been turned back! I remember similar prediction of eb3 reaching mid-2010 from you back in early 2019, when we both were discussing here. And nothing of that sort happened.

CO is determined to keep eb3 behind eb2 to avoid downportings. So expect eb2 to reach July mid to end this year and eb3 to June. As for next year’s spillover, there are too many variables against it so no one should count it.
I agree, irrespective of the available visas he is advancing EB3I at the max 1 month per vBulletin

[NJMavarick]

CO Check-in is a joke he does exactly opposite to what he states in Check-in.
"Eb1 I will move slowly"- it advances 10 months
"Eb3 Row used up all the numbers for 2020" - It advances 11 months
:-)

Well, no one expected EB3 CP cases or for that matter COVID to happen. That being said, I think he tries to convey what is coming in his best capacity.

[Auser123]

Well, no one expected EB3 CP cases or for that matter COVID to happen. That being said, I think he tries to convey what is coming in his best capacity.

Yes, but that statement about Eb1 is after the bulletin was prepared(June bulletin)

[AceMan]

AceMan glad to see you. It would be glad to hear from number gurus once in a while to keep up our spirits. I sense that the 50K+ unused CPs in 2020, brought you back. The conditions have been the most favorable this year.

Yes, I love fiddling with numbers and throw out lot of well minded theories. However CO appears hell bent on proving me wrong over and over again 😀. And every year I come up with the excuse Philippines and South Korea has been allocated more than they should really get. The FB dates for Philippines is a joke for a long time, which happened to be the excuse to over allocate EB quota for them.

But it is what is. A 50K SO, if we get it, will really help a lot of us.

[mahendra]

I am waiting anxiously for the July bulletin and more so curious to see the EB3 dates. The check-in with CO update should be out any day now...lets see what is in there.

Will CO check-in anything while funding is awaited?

[jimmys]

Will CO check-in anything while funding is awaited?

CO is an employee of DoS. I don't think USCIS (DHS) funding issue affects him in anyway.

[rabp77]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/05/28/high-skill-immigration-restrictions-expected-soon-from-trump/#6430625c6a89

[Spectator]

Yes, I love fiddling with numbers and throw out lot of well minded theories. However CO appears hell bent on proving me wrong over and over again 😀. And every year I come up with the excuse Philippines and South Korea has been allocated more than they should really get. The FB dates for Philippines is a joke for a long time, which happened to be the excuse to over allocate EB quota for them.

The statement about the effect of FB use isn't really true for Philippines (as it is for Korea).

Philippines does not get extra approvals in EB because of low approvals in FB.

EB3-P does get higher approvals than the prorated amount in EB would suggest, but that's because Philippines has few approvals in EB1-EB2 and EB4-EB5.

In FY2019, Philippines used 0.86% of the EB1 allocation, 3.34% of the EB2 allocation, 12.65% of the EB3 allocation, 2.17% of the EB4 allocation and 0.16% of the EB5 allocation.

Against the prorated EB limit, Philippines used 4.98% of the 7% EB limit.

Only once in the last 10 years has Philippines used more than the 7% limit in EB (and that was within the range of error - not CO's finest).

Philippines EB Total Approvals

FY --------- No. ---- %
FY2019 --- 7,074 --- 4.98%
FY2018 --- 8,985 --- 6.40%
FY2017 --- 8,824 --- 6.30%
FY2016 --- 8,917 --- 6.35%
FY2015 -- 10,363 --- 7.16%
FY2014 --- 8,172 --- 5.44%
FY2013 -- 10,537 --- 6.65%
FY2012 --- 9,504 --- 6.56%
FY2011 --- 7,628 --- 5.45%
FY2010 --- 6,786 --- 4.50%

Average -- 8,679 --- 5.98%

Nor is it really an overallocation. The interpretation of how the 7% limit is calculated (i.e. equals FB + EB) has been consistent for a very long time.

The practice of combining EB and FB for purposes of determining the 7% limit dates back to at least as far as FY2000 (the oldest data I could find) but probably has been in force since at least when the Immigration system was last revamped in 1990.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/FY2000%20app%20A.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/FY2000%20app%20B.pdf

The same also appears to be true of using more in some subcategories (e.g. EB3), when other subcategories have insufficient demand, as long as the total for the category (EB) is not exceeded.

In FB, FB3 & FB4 India have regularly benefited from this interpretation.

For example, India used 18.4% of the FB3 allocation in FY2019 and 11.5% of the FB4 allocation in FY2019, while using 6.2% of the total FB allocation because use in FB1 (1.2%), FB2A (1.8%) and FB2B (1.0%) was relatively low.

[imdeng]

You are the man Spec! There isn't a single data driven question in the immigration realm that you don't have a thoughtful, well considered, backed with evidence answer.

I propose that we set up a Spec Appreciation Donation drive and donate to Spec's favorite charity to show our appreciation.

[gcpursuit]

You are the man Spec! There isn't a single data driven question in the immigration realm that you don't have a thoughtful, well considered, backed with evidence answer.

I propose that we set up a Spec Appreciation Donation drive and donate to Spec's favorite charity to show our appreciation.

Amen to this !! It’s always a pleasure to see Spec’s answers with all the data.

[AceMan]

The statement about the effect of FB use isn't really true for Philippines (as it is for Korea).

Philippines does not get extra approvals in EB because of low approvals in FB.

EB3-P does get higher approvals than the prorated amount in EB would suggest, but that's because Philippines has few approvals in EB1-EB2 and EB4-EB5.

In FY2019, Philippines used 0.86% of the EB1 allocation, 3.34% of the EB2 allocation, 12.65% of the EB3 allocation, 2.17% of the EB4 allocation and 0.16% of the EB5 allocation.

Against the prorated EB limit, Philippines used 4.98% of the 7% EB limit.

Only once in the last 10 years has Philippines used more than the 7% limit in EB (and that was within the range of error - not CO's finest).

Philippines EB Total Approvals

FY --------- No. ---- %
FY2019 --- 7,074 --- 4.98%
FY2018 --- 8,985 --- 6.40%
FY2017 --- 8,824 --- 6.30%
FY2016 --- 8,917 --- 6.35%
FY2015 -- 10,363 --- 7.16%
FY2014 --- 8,172 --- 5.44%
FY2013 -- 10,537 --- 6.65%
FY2012 --- 9,504 --- 6.56%
FY2011 --- 7,628 --- 5.45%
FY2010 --- 6,786 --- 4.50%

Average -- 8,679 --- 5.98%

Nor is it really an overallocation. The interpretation of how the 7% limit is calculated (i.e. equals FB + EB) has been consistent for a very long time.

The practice of combining EB and FB for purposes of determining the 7% limit dates back to at least as far as FY2000 (the oldest data I could find) but probably has been in force since at least when the Immigration system was last revamped in 1990.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/FY2000%20app%20A.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/FY2000%20app%20B.pdf

The same also appears to be true of using more in some subcategories (e.g. EB3), when other subcategories have insufficient demand, as long as the total for the category (EB) is not exceeded.

In FB, FB3 & FB4 India have regularly benefited from this interpretation.

For example, India used 18.4% of the FB3 allocation in FY2019 and 11.5% of the FB4 allocation in FY2019, while using 6.2% of the total FB allocation because use in FB1 (1.2%), FB2A (1.8%) and FB2B (1.0%) was relatively low.

Come on Spec, you are a party pooper :D:D:D:D. I have been running this "all in the well because of Philippines" story for a long time.

Thanks for correcting me on this.

[suninphx]

You are the man Spec! There isn't a single data driven question in the immigration realm that you don't have a thoughtful, well considered, backed with evidence answer.

I propose that we set up a Spec Appreciation Donation drive and donate to Spec's favorite charity to show our appreciation.

Great idea!

But I will donate only if she/he predicts that I will get my greencard this FY 😂 JK

[Spectator]

Thank you for the very positive response to the post.

I was, actually, quite hesitant to post it.

After all, we all like our "conspiracy" theories.

I'm not that active these days, primarily due to the lack of data provided.

Under the current administration it seems to have become increasingly more difficult to access useful data (my own personal conspiracy theory).

Without that data, it's impossible to forecast what might happen.

I'm sure many people share my frustration at this state of affairs.

[Zenzone]

You are the man Spec! There isn't a single data driven question in the immigration realm that you don't have a thoughtful, well considered, backed with evidence answer.

I propose that we set up a Spec Appreciation Donation drive and donate to Spec's favorite charity to show our appreciation.

Copy that! Great job Spec. Debunking myths with data!

[amarrecherla]

Thank you for the very positive response to the post.

I was, actually, quite hesitant to post it.

After all, we all like our "conspiracy" theories.

I'm not that active these days, primarily due to the lack of data provided.

Under the current administration it seems to have become increasingly more difficult to access useful data (my own personal conspiracy theory).

Without that data, it's impossible to forecast what might happen.

I'm sure many people share my frustration at this state of affairs.

Spec, Is it possible to get inventory data with a FOIA request? Multiple FOIA requests, If not possible with one request.

[maverick2010]

Looks like USCIS is opening in parts...

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/immigration/article243067511.html

[idliman]

Anyone has access to AILA Doc. No. 14071401, Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim dated 5/29/2020 ?

[newsletter1978]

Anyone has access to AILA Doc. No. 20041738, Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim dated 5/29/2020 ?

Translated by Google from a Chinese site http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Immigration/34048933.html

General Observations:

As noted last month, while Charlie is required to work from home and lacks
access to certain government databases, he is unable to provide projections
beyond what is included herein.

As might be expected, immigrant visa (IV) usage was lower than normal in
April 2020 due to the closure of US consulates and USCIS offices.
Notwithstanding these closures, Charlie was pleased to see that
employment-based number usage was respectable in April given the current
situation, and that there has already been decent sized number usage thus
far in May.

Movements in the final action dates and the redistribution of otherwise
unused visa numbers have traditionally been influenced by the demand for
visa numbers in the various categories relative to the annual visa limits.

During the COVID-19 global pandemic, the lack of government capacity to
process applications is proving to be a significant factor in how visa
numbers can be allocated in an effort to maximize fiscal year number usage
consistent with the INA.

Charlie must now take into account the agencies' capacity to process
applications, in addition to supply and demand, in determining final action
date movements.

Lack of significant EB-1 Worldwide demand, and the existence of a
significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-1 India makes it possible
for more rapid advancement for EB-1 India.

In contrast, before the COVID-19 pandemic, Charlie warned of high levels of
EB-2 Worldwide demand, which he expected would result in the imposition of a
final action date in that category in the summer.

Although that is no longer likely, the existence of significant worldwide
demand may make it far less likely that the pre-adjudicated demand in EB-2
India can be acted upon.

Where possible, Charlie is doing his best to work with pre-adjudicated
demand to facilitate number usage and is heartened by USCIS's efforts to
approve employment-based adjustment of status applications.

Nevertheless, he thinks it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will
be reached in FY2020. He noted that he will have a better sense of whether
the limit will be reached after he analyzes the June 2020 data.

Employment-based Preference Categories

EB-1 Worldwide which became current in May 2020 remains current in
June. Given the lack of EB-1 demand and the likelihood of otherwise unused
numbers becoming available from the EB-5 category, this category is expected
to remain current through the end of FY2020.

[imdeng]

Thanks newsletter78. Good old mitbbs - it used to be a goldmine of information from EB-C point of view - glad to see that its still kicking!

This is insane if it means what I think it means:

Nevertheless, he thinks it is unlikely that the employment-based limit will be reached in FY2020.

Does he mean that EB will not meet its annual visa issuance limit? Given that a ton of pre-adjudicated demand exists, there is no excuse for not meeting the limit.

[eaglenow]

If CO doesn’t think the EB limits will be reached, is he preparing to waste the visas? That would be atrocious given the huge pending preadjudicated cases for EBI. If processing is taking time, why not move the dates ahead for EBI?

This way they can request/assign the numbers from this fiscal years quota for the applications and still continue to process those applications into next fiscal year.

Also, Given the slow processing, it would be better to move the dates In the next bulletin. This will give 3 months processing time for those applications. If the numbers get used up earlier, they can always make it unavailable. The other way around will only waste visas.

[whereismygc]

I love this forum.
Gustimate for Eb2 2010 ( my pd) is any where between 5 months to 8 years :)
Paid Q's Prediction engine was wrong by -72% last year ( https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2770-WhereismyGC-Forecast-Accuracy)

Real answer - No one knows, there are too many variables.
Do your best and stay positive.

Since this was raised about WhereismyGC, we are responding here.

We encourage people to understand the numbers. The above mentioned accuracy was for 2019 EB2-India. The accuracy measures whether we hit the target right on its head (i.e. bulls eye). For most of the categories our cone of probability (i.e. best and worst case scenarios) are generally accurate. But we haven't figured out an easy way to calculate or depict that. That's why we are measuring on bull's eye which is relatively easy to calculate. Our recommendation while using our forecast is to use the worst case scenario rather than best or even average case. There is tremendous demand very limited supply which causes crazy fluctuations. e.g. people from EB2-I 2007 were approved in 2011. And people from EB-2 I 2009 are still waiting. That's tragic but also tells you how wild swings there can be. That's why instead of looking at bull's eye, we encourage people to look at the cone of probability and plan your life / career accordingly.

[Auser123]

If CO doesn’t think the EB limits will be reached, is he preparing to waste the visas? That would be atrocious given the huge pending preadjudicated cases for EBI. If processing is taking time, why not move the dates ahead for EBI?

This way they can request/assign the numbers from this fiscal years quota for the applications and still continue to process those applications into next fiscal year.

Also, Given the slow processing, it would be better to move the dates In the next bulletin. This will give 3 months processing time for those applications. If the numbers get used up earlier, they can always make it unavailable. The other way around will only waste visas.

Quiet obvious, he is going to waste the numbers(as usual)

[rocketfast]

IMO, CO's forecast about wasting numbers, I feel it is a translation error (from Chinese to English) or transcribing error. Everything till that point, he was basically saying USCIS is on track to use up all the numbers.

USCIS has not waster EB numbers for a really long time. We can argue that he has been unfair to EB3-I a couple of times where EB3-C benefited instead. He also seemed unfair with EB2-I last year where EB2-C got 600 GCs more than EB2-I. But then again, he gave EB1-I more than its share.

Since EB2-I and EB3-I are stuck for such a long time, we feel that he needs to sympathize with us a little - which he does not seem to.

[NJMaverick]

I think we what he means is there will no longer be any horizontal numbers available for EB2I. I still do expect a few months movement on EB2I as he knows the demand. There could be visa wastage..but he still can move dates in the last 2 bulletins... its not over till its over..

[jimmys]

Since EB2-I and EB3-I are stuck for such a long time, we feel that he needs to sympathize with us a little - which he does not seem to.

We all knew EB2-I doesn't deserve any sympathy as they sued USCIS/DoS back in 2015. Why they are not moving EB3-I is the real question here. Is EB3-I being punished for EB2-I's actions?

[mahendra]

Translated by Google from a Chinese site http://www.mitbbs.com/article_t/Immigration/34048933.html

Is it genuine article from mitbbs.com?

Recent AILA posting: https://www.aila.org/recent-postings
It hasn't posted CO's check-in on 5/29

[imdeng]

I think we what he means is there will no longer be any horizontal numbers available for EB2I... ...

This seems the most likely explanation given the wording.

[jimmys]

Is it genuine article from mitbbs.com?

Recent AILA posting: https://www.aila.org/recent-postings
It hasn't posted CO's check-in on 5/29

I don't think check in with CO is available for general public on AILA.org.

[Zenzone]

This seems the most likely explanation given the wording.

When did he say this?? It looks like a random article.

[idliman]

Is it genuine article from mitbbs.com?

Recent AILA posting: https://www.aila.org/recent-postings
It hasn't posted CO's check-in on 5/29
AILA website shows the following article viewable only to their members.
Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim
5/29/2020
The AILA DOS Liaison Committee provides monthly “check-ins” with Charlie Oppenheim, designed to keep members informed of Visa Bulletin progress and to obtain his analysis of current trends and future projections, beyond the basic visa availability updates provided in the monthly Visa Bulletin.
AILA Doc. No. 14071401
Note: The above number is different; The earlier article number points to the rejection of I-485 from lockbox due to expired forms (incorrectly). If the above is a true copy, in a day or two some law firms will be publishing this in their website.

[imdeng]

When did he say this?? It looks like a random article.

mitbbs has typically been a reliable source of information - there are of course issues in translation but that is to be expected.

[Zenzone]

mitbbs has typically been a reliable source of information - there are of course issues in translation but that is to be expected.

I would be very suspicious unless I hear CO directly quoted on wasting visas for EB. I choose not to freak out until then :)

[NJMavarick]

I would be very suspicious unless I hear CO directly quoted on wasting visas for EB. I choose not to freak out until then :)

The check-in with Charlie information provided is accurate! I have now got it from a different source as well:
--
EB1-3 in July: In July, Final Action Dates would advance
EB-5 India would be current in August 2020 - If this happens, then expect a decent spillover to EB1 India next year (provided FB spillover is applied).
EB-2 Worldwide: No longer the imposition of a final action date this summer.
--

Just to add what I think means that is the supply of EB visas is more than demand and what I interpret is perhaps that he is not able to gauge the horizontal spill over that is going to be available. I still see this as good news.

[140_EAD]

The check-in with Charlie information provided is accurate! I have now got it from a different source as well:
--
EB1-3 in July: In July, Final Action Dates would advance
EB-5 India would be current in August 2020 - If this happens, then expect a decent spillover to EB1 India next year (provided FB spillover is applied).
EB-2 Worldwide: No longer the imposition of a final action date this summer.
--

Just to add what I think means that is the supply of EB visas is more than demand and what I interpret is perhaps that he is not able to gauge the horizontal spill over that is going to be available. I still see this as good news.

So, is there any update on EB2-I?

[Zenzone]

The check-in with Charlie information provided is accurate! I have now got it from a different source as well:
--
EB1-3 in July: In July, Final Action Dates would advance
EB-5 India would be current in August 2020 - If this happens, then expect a decent spillover to EB1 India next year (provided FB spillover is applied).
EB-2 Worldwide: No longer the imposition of a final action date this summer.
--

Just to add what I think means that is the supply of EB visas is more than demand and what I interpret is perhaps that he is not able to gauge the horizontal spill over that is going to be available. I still see this as good news.

Thanks! So the point about visa wastage is probably a translation error indeed.

[redsox2009]

If EB1 India dates move in July then expect a big jump for EB2 and EB3 Indians. If EB3 ROW moves ahead in July or it becomes current that is any date after Jan 2020, then the India EB3 dates touching Feb 2010 is very likely.

[NJMavarick]

If EB1 India dates move in July then expect a big jump for EB2 and EB3 Indians. If EB3 ROW moves ahead in July or it becomes current that is any date after Jan 2020, then the India EB3 dates touching Feb 2010 is very likely.

EB-3 has the best chance of reaching their annual limits by September 30 - As per CO.

There will be movement for EB3 but not as drastic as I would I have hoped.

[smuggymba]

If EB1 India dates move in July then expect a big jump for EB2 and EB3 Indians. If EB3 ROW moves ahead in July or it becomes current that is any date after Jan 2020, then the India EB3 dates touching Feb 2010 is very likely.

What about EB2?

[bodhi2000]

What about EB2?

My guess, EB2-I will clear Sep-09 by end of this fiscal year.

[jimmys]

EB-3 has the best chance of reaching their annual limits by September 30 - As per CO.

There will be movement for EB3 but not as drastic as I would I have hoped.

You meant to say EB3 in total to reach its limit by September 30?

[NJMavarick]

You meant to say EB3 in total to reach its limit by September 30?

Yes. You are right

[jackus]

Yes. You are right

I understand that CO will process that EB3 quota will be used until September 30, which mean that limit may be reached. And the next Fiscal year Oct 2020 will be current again?

[mar2010er]

Please could you throw some wide ballpark estimates, just your opinion..

[jackus]

Mean that after reach and will be current in next fiscal year? CO want EB3 must be reached at the end sept 2020?

[rabp77]

Yes. You are right

NJMavarick , if you mean, EB3 without spill over to EB3-I is likely to reach its annual limit by Sept 30, that likely means its bad news for EB3-I. That would mean no horizontal spillover for EB3-I. Am i interpreting your comment correctly ?

[NJMavarick]

NJMavarick , if you mean, EB3 without spill over to EB3-I is likely to reach its annual limit by Sept 30, that likely means its bad news for EB3-I. That would mean no horizontal spillover for EB3-I. Am i interpreting your comment correctly ?

Yes. There seems to be enough demand in EB3 category so there will be no horizontal spillover. That is the reason this category is not current. There will still be movement just not as drastic as we would have hoped for.

[mahendra]

Yes. There seems to be enough demand in EB3 category so there will be no horizontal spillover. That is the reason this category is not current. There will still be movement just not as drastic as we would have hoped for.

How much could be not so drastic movement? by few days/weeks/months?

[redsox2009]

Please could you throw some wide ballpark estimates, just your opinion..


Here is my ballpark in July Bulletin EB2I can move up to June 21 or July 1st and EB3 can move up to June 1st or can catch up with EB2.

[idliman]

Heather Sivaraman's website had published the Check-in with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim posted to AILA on May 29, 2020. The wording is more condensed. I wonder whether they omitted the descriptive paragraph that we have been discussing above.
It clearly states that as there is a lot of pre-adjudicated demand in EB3, all visas will be used. Nothing is mentioned for EB2. I think as EB2-ROW is current, good likelihood of some horizontal spillover to EB2I/C. However, I am sure CO is waiting to see more data before spilling the beans. So we have to wait and watch EB2I till his next check-in. Descriptions about PDs have been deleted below.

Employment-based Preference Categories:
EB-1:
Due to the lack of EB-1 demand and the likelihood of otherwise unused numbers becoming available from the EB-5 category, Oppenheim predicts that EB-1 (ROW in context) will remain current through the end of the fiscal year. In June, the final action date for EB-1 China advanced one month from July 15, 2017, to August 15, 2017. Also, EB-1 India jumped forward ten months from August 1, 2015, to June 8, 2016.
EB-2:
EB-2 Worldwide (including El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, Mexico Philippines, and Vietnam), remains current as well in June. Additionally, EB-2 China advanced one month from October 1, 2015, and EB-2 India advanced ten days from June 2, 2009 to June 12, 2009.
EB-3:
Like EB-1 India, there is a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-3 Worldwide. This makes it more reliable that the advancements will result in visa issuances this fiscal year.
EB-4:
EB-4 Worldwide (including China, India, Philippines, and Vietnam) remains current while EB-4 El Salvador Guatemala and Honduras advanced four months from August 15, 2016, to December 15, 2016. The advancement of EB-4 Mexico slowed down in June, and advanced from May 1, 2018 to June 8, 2018. According to Oppenheim, it is possible that these dates will hold into July 2020.
EB-5:

Charlie expects EB-5 India to become current by August 2020. If EB-5 India does become current by August 2020, it is possible that otherwise unused numbers might go to EB-5 Vietnam allowing that category to advance more rapidly.

Source (https://www.sivisalaw.com/immigration-news/2020/06/01/june-check-in-with-doss-charlie-oppenheim-2/)

[jackus]

A question for EB3 ROw, if all visas reached limit, next fiscal year will allocate new quota and become current in Oct 2020?

[jimmys]

EB-3:[/B]
Like EB-1 India, there is a significant amount of pre-adjudicated demand in EB-3 Worldwide. This makes it more reliable that the advancements will result in visa issuances this fiscal year.




Simply put, waiving off interviews for EB3 ROW created enough demand so EB3-I doesn't get any horizontal spillover. EB-3 India retrogression on the cards when the consulates reopen?

[idliman]

A question for EB3 ROw, if all visas reached limit, next fiscal year will allocate new quota and become current in Oct 2020?
Yes. Historically, Mr. CO had moved EB3-ROW FA to be current for the first few months of visa allocation year before retrogressing the dates later in the year. Please note that year 2020 allocations begin in Oct of 2019.
Year 2020 – Oct to Feb
Year 2019 – Oct to Jul
Year 2018 – Oct to Aug
So you can assume that he will make EB3-ROW current in October 2020 based on past trend.

[kb2013]

< >

[NJMavarick]

Yes. Historically, Mr. CO had moved EB3-ROW FA to be current for the first few months of visa allocation year before retrogressing the dates later in the year. Please note that year 2020 allocations begin in Oct of 2019.
Year 2020 – Oct to Feb
Year 2019 – Oct to Jul
Year 2018 – Oct to Aug
So you can assume that he will make EB3-ROW current in October 2020 based on past trend.

That is interesting! I never observed that. This can bode well for the potential spill over as the total for EB2I+EB3I could be a large number if EB3-ROW is current. EB3 Philippines typically is also backlogged. Still, EB3I is destined to get a decent allocation come next fiscal.

[mahendra]

Murthy Law Firm published June 2020 Visa Bulletin Check-In
https://www.murthy.com/2020/06/05/june-2020-visa-bulletin-check-in/

It has no EB3 details what we discussed above. In fact, FY20 limits may not be reached due to limited USCIS capacity and remaining visa numbers will be lost.

[redtogreen]

Why would the SO not happen? Can the visa numbers not be assigned to adjudicated applications where it's just some formal paperwork transactions pending? Well, surprising nobody in the check-in meeting asks such basic questions to CO!! Maybe they don't want to! Is it even a meeting btw or some kind of broadcast? So here is the new excuse when we think we have seen it all... resource crunch, capacity limitation!! Throwing all reasonable predictions off track!

[Pundit Arjun]

Why would the SO not happen? Can the visa numbers not be assigned to adjudicated applications where it's just some formal paperwork transactions pending? Well, surprising nobody in the check-in meeting asks such basic questions to CO!! Maybe they don't want to! Is it even a meeting btw or some kind of broadcast? So here is the new excuse when we think we have seen it all... resource crunch, capacity limitation!! Throwing all reasonable predictions off track!

This has happened many a times over the years. Things seem logical and all hopes go up to be quashed by one reason or another. You are very correct in concluding that the checkin is more like a broadcast [one-way] - It sure does look so.
Like Q and many others keep saying - Better to forget and keep moving on with the life [hard but better to get used to....].

[GC-Immigrant]

This has happened many a times over the years. Things seem logical and all hopes go up to be quashed by one reason or another. You are very correct in concluding that the checkin is more like a broadcast [one-way] - It sure does look so.
Like Q and many others keep saying - Better to forget and keep moving on with the life [hard but better to get used to....].

What is the procedure to attend this meeting on behalf of backlogged applicants?

[IamGSN]

Hi,

I am maintaining my EB3 GC EAD and H1 both with same employer , my PD is 07/09/09. Now Prime vendor(Typical Desi services company) to Client is asking me to convert to FT or loose the contract in this Covid-19 situation. Though I can transfers my EAD and H1 safely, I am thinking if it is worth to risk and change the employer. My GC Interview got cancelled due to Pandemic in April.

How long do you think it may take for my date to be current?

[idliman]

Hi,

I am maintaining my EB3 GC EAD and H1 both with same employer , my PD is 07/09/09. Now Prime vendor(Typical Desi services company) to Client is asking me to convert to FT or loose the contract in this Covid-19 situation. Though I can transfers my EAD and H1 safely, I am thinking if it is worth to risk and change the employer. My GC Interview got cancelled due to Pandemic in April.

How long do you think it may take for my date to be current?
You did not provide any information about whether you filed I485, 180 days before or not. That makes you eligible for AC21 job portability provisions. I assume that you have crossed the 180-day AC21 clock.
You are 100 days from being current in EB3I. You already have an EAD, so I would assume that you have a valid medical till (Oct or Nov of 2020). Whatever happens, I think you should definitely be current in Oct 2020 or 4 months from now. From that time, GC approval takes few days to a few months. Let’s say 2 months. So, you should have GC in hand by Dec 2020. People here can discuss predictions or other anticipated PD movement. However, in the worst case will you be able to hold on till Dec 2020?
Now in the best-case scenario, you may be current in the next 1 to 3 bulletins. Any backlogged person waiting for 10+ years and thinking that they are very close to the finish line will find it difficult to make a decision. It’s a tough situation to be in. Kindly prepare yourself assuming that you will not be getting GC immediately. That will save you from disappointment.
No one including Mr. CO can pre-announce the PD movement till it happens. A call from Trump admin can make anything happen in a Visa bulletin. Now others in the forum might be able to provide better estimates of PD movement. If you have opened a separate thread for this topic, may be others will chime in with their own view.
If you decide to take FT position, please make sure that the new company will fully support you in H1B, AC21, job classification, I485J and so on. Hope this helps. Good Luck.

[idliman]

Also be aware of I485 interview waiver. By guesstimate only about 1 in 6 or 7 got COVID interview waivers. As USCIS offices are now open, the interview waiver might decrease, you will be asked to come in for an interview. So factor this also in your decision.

[IamGSN]

Thanks @Idliman. Yes I filed I-485 and got my EAD. I am also looking at 6-12 months timeframe to get my GC to be current based on past date movemens.

[jimmys]

Hi,

I am maintaining my EB3 GC EAD and H1 both with same employer , my PD is 07/09/09. Now Prime vendor(Typical Desi services company) to Client is asking me to convert to FT or loose the contract in this Covid-19 situation. Though I can transfers my EAD and H1 safely, I am thinking if it is worth to risk and change the employer. My GC Interview got cancelled due to Pandemic in April.

How long do you think it may take for my date to be current?

If your employer is okay with you joining the middle vendor, go ahead and join. Your date could become current anytime in the next 6 months or so. When you're called for the interview, get the 485-J from your new employer to the interview. Otherwise, wait for an RFE from USCIS to file the 485-J.

[mar2010er]

Hi,

I am maintaining my EB3 GC EAD and H1 both with same employer , my PD is 07/09/09. Now Prime vendor(Typical Desi services company) to Client is asking me to convert to FT or loose the contract in this Covid-19 situation. Though I can transfers my EAD and H1 safely, I am thinking if it is worth to risk and change the employer. My GC Interview got cancelled due to Pandemic in April.

How long do you think it may take for my date to be current?

I am on the same boat as you. I did research on this topic as well. I found that the denial rate of GC due to someone changed jobs and filed 485J (might have slightly different roles) is very low. In other words, I found it safe to change jobs on EAD. As some other pointed already, even though the date seems so close, the time it takes to have GC at hand might make longer.

[Zenzone]

This has happened many a times over the years. Things seem logical and all hopes go up to be quashed by one reason or another. You are very correct in concluding that the checkin is more like a broadcast [one-way] - It sure does look so.
Like Q and many others keep saying - Better to forget and keep moving on with the life [hard but better to get used to....].

Here is my question. If EB2 ROW demand is high enough and if CO doesn't expect much movement before the fiscal end, how much of EB2 visa will be lost as such. This scenario will be huge next year if they go unused because of the bigger FB SO expected to EB next fiscal. Am I missing much here?

[siriyal75]

What happened to 5k visas from FB, based on the trend from last year at least Eb2i got very few spill over and eb3i got more than 2k visas, in that case Eb2&3 get more visas this time?
Expecting min 7k spill over to eb3 India , 3-4K for eb2 India.

Another question, are the people who filed I-485 prior to 2017, are exempt from visa interview right?

[rocketfast]

What happened to 5k visas from FB, based on the trend from last year at least Eb2i got very few spill over and eb3i got more than 2k visas, in that case Eb2&3 get more visas this time?
Expecting min 7k spill over to eb3 India , 3-4K for eb2 India.


EB2-ROW being current does not indicate that there is prefect equilibrium between demand and supply. Over the last 3 years, EB2-ROW demand has been more than their yearly available supply by a month. Ballpark at the end of last year was that there was 15 months of EB2-ROW backlogged demand for 12 months of supply. And this year CO was talking about finally imposing a cutoff. Now he is saying he may not need to apply a cutoff. You still need to clear that extra 3 months of demand for any spillover to EB2-I

EB3-I cannot get a spillover when EB3-ROW is not current.

[siriyal75]

EB2-ROW being current does not indicate that there is prefect equilibrium between demand and supply. Over the last 3 years, EB2-ROW demand has been more than their yearly available supply by a month. Ballpark at the end of last year was that there was 15 months of EB2-ROW backlogged demand for 12 months of supply. And this year CO was talking about finally imposing a cutoff. Now he is saying he may not need to apply a cutoff. You still need to clear that extra 3 months of demand for any spillover to EB2-I

EB3-I cannot get a spillover when EB3-ROW is not current.

It depends, the last quarter allocation are different from previous 3 qtrs.
In case the whole EB2-RoW, which usually 100+ countries, have more demand , then it is possble, but most of the time 5-6 countries have more demand than supply, apart from India and China.
In case Mixico, Philippines, Vietnam, South Korea, etc have more than their annual quota,say 3-6 months backlog, they can have separate cut off dates, but this wont completely prevent spill over, spill over can happen from 90+ other countries, the final quarter allocation based on the backlogged PD.

[siriyal75]

Hi Experts,

One question about Interviews after I-485 filed.
I guess the interviews are applicable to only, those who filed I-485 AoS after 03/06/2017, as most of the EB2 India applicants filed AoS before this date, if any addtl spill over next few months, they can process without delay.
is that assumption correct?

[NeelVohra]

Hi Experts,

... if any addtl spill over next few months, they can process without delay.
is that assumption correct?

Unknown what would happen with any potential I-485j and medical RFEs.
Not sure whether they would process without those. As a result they will waste visa nos.
Even though if/when applicants get the RFE, I'm sure most people will attempt to reply in appropriate time.

I dont think there is any surge of RFEs yet.

[IamGSN]

I am on the same boat as you. I did research on this topic as well. I found that the denial rate of GC due to someone changed jobs and filed 485J (might have slightly different roles) is very low. In other words, I found it safe to change jobs on EAD. As some other pointed already, even though the date seems so close, the time it takes to have GC at hand might make longer.

Rejection / RFE is the main factor and reluctant to take decision on ths. This convinces me reasonably with respect to GC EAD. I am planning transfer the H1 as well.