EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[jimmys]

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2018.pdf

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2017.pdf

This is for the year 2018. In that it has EB3 India numbers as 21K+. And, EB2 India has 13.5K.
For the year 2017, EB3 has 21,962 and EB2 has 10,961. But between October 2017 to October 2018, EB3 PD had moved from 15 OCT 2006 to 1 Jan 2009. So, these number don't directly reflect PD movement IMO.

I think these stats just reflect the immigration petitions filed as Consular processing. It doesn't have anything to do with current pending cases before the PD or cases ready to be approved.

[canada]

Something is really amiss. EB2 India 15K, EB3 India 20K, and EB1 India only 1282.

If it's just before Nov 1,2019 PDs, it's unbelievable to see 15K EB2 are still pending before May,2009 and 20K EB3 are pending before Jan 1,2009. If so, why the dates are even in 2009?

If it's only the filed applications, in which EB2 till May 1,2010 and EB3 till Apr 1,2010, then it short of makes some sense. Then, EB1 India filed applications can't be 1282 as mentioned in the report. CO himself told a couple of months ago that EB1 has about 17K applications pending.

Things don't add up as is. I don't know how to interpret these numbers.

Things definitely won’t add up as we don’t have enough information to make a good analysis.

[Moveon]

Can you travel on AP after your priority date becomes current? My lawyer recommends against that. In the event your GC is approved while you are away, the lawyer said you may be denied re-entry. Is that true? One of my friend was in a similar situation 5 years ago and she re-entered on AP after GC approval. Is this a recent change? do any of you have personal experience?

Thanks

I have not read that rule anywhere. Typically lawyers have advised people to avoid travel for more than 2-3 weeks so that they can respond to RFEs immediately when dates become current. Else you may miss the window if the dates retrogress in the next bulletin .

[qesehmk]

Can you travel on AP after your priority date becomes current? My lawyer recommends against that. In the event your GC is approved while you are away, the lawyer said you may be denied re-entry. Is that true? One of my friend was in a similar situation 5 years ago and she re-entered on AP after GC approval. Is this a recent change? do any of you have personal experience?

Thanks
Technically the immigration officer can admit you even without a GC in your hand...s/he can only look it up your status in the system. But listen to your lawyer. If you are in backlogged categories, usually u will be greened within 30 days from being current. Why take chance?

[anfu02]

Technically the immigration officer can admit you even without a GC in your hand...s/he can only look it up your status in the system. But listen to your lawyer. If you are in backlogged categories, usually u will be greened within 30 days from being current. Why take chance?

ok, thanks for the reply.

To Moveon:
I got my AP approved today. My receipt date 07/08/19 filed with Nebraska center.

[Moveon]

ok, thanks for the reply.

To Moveon:
I got my AP approved today. My receipt date 07/08/19 filed with Nebraska center.


Hi Anfu02,
My AP shows approved today on the website . Filed June 15th , approved yesterday . I guess they grant it for a year .

[incredible]

Hi Gurus,

I have been silent member of this group for long time. I have 2010 PD EB2 and have EAD and AP for quite some time. I have renewal coming up and will send documents to USCIS next week. Meanwhile I am looking at promising opportunity in a start-up where I can make difference. Is there any specific steps that I need to do in switching jobs. I am planning to file for 485 supplement J. Do we also need to have AC-21 letter like we used to have in the past? Any other specific things that I need to consider?

Thanks.

[idliman]

Hi Gurus,

I have been silent member of this group for long time. I have 2010 PD EB2 and have EAD and AP for quite some time. I have renewal coming up and will send documents to USCIS next week. Meanwhile I am looking at promising opportunity in a start-up where I can make difference. Is there any specific steps that I need to do in switching jobs. I am planning to file for 485 supplement J. Do we also need to have AC-21 letter like we used to have in the past? Any other specific things that I need to consider?

Thanks.
If you are maintaining your H1B status (or other non EAD/AP status), then you need to apply and port the visa to new employer. 3 out of 4 applicants get the H1B Specialty occupation RFE.

If you do not intend maintain the H1B status, then it is simple portability with EAD. New employer takes EAD and does a I-9 form. Depending on opinion of your legal experts, you may want to file for I485J. It all depends on how closely your job category is when compared to original PERM. If the SOC codes are the same and the job description is more or less same, then I don't see any issues.

[incredible]

Thank you for quick reply. I am not maintaining my H1. I did file 485 supplement J as response to RFE couple of years back and it took 6 months for it to get approved. Now if I change my employer do I need to file 485 supplement J? My attorney thinks no need till asked for by USCIS through an RFE. And in any case, I may not be able to file 485 supplement J and wait for its approval before joining new company (as it seems to take close to 6 months or so for that to happen). Now the only question is, should I file supplement J and immediately join the new organization or not worry about supplement J for now till RFE is issued b y USCIS.


If you are maintaining your H1B status (or other non EAD/AP status), then you need to apply and port the visa to new employer. 3 out of 4 applicants get the H1B Specialty occupation RFE.

If you do not intend maintain the H1B status, then it is simple portability with EAD. New employer takes EAD and does a I-9 form. Depending on opinion of your legal experts, you may want to file for I485J. It all depends on how closely your job category is when compared to original PERM. If the SOC codes are the same and the job description is more or less same, then I don't see any issues.

[Pundit Arjun]

Technically the immigration officer can admit you even without a GC in your hand...s/he can only look it up your status in the system. But listen to your lawyer. If you are in backlogged categories, usually u will be greened within 30 days from being current. Why take chance?

Q - Wont the guys pull the Medical RFE .... and delay the approval even though the date is current ?
Family and I are contemplating a visit back home [this fall]. My belief is that even if i get current there will be an RFE due to expired medicals ....

Agree with your advice that its always better to listen to your attorney :)

[idliman]

Thank you for quick reply. I am not maintaining my H1. I did file 485 supplement J as response to RFE couple of years back and it took 6 months for it to get approved. Now if I change my employer do I need to file 485 supplement J? My attorney thinks no need till asked for by USCIS through an RFE. And in any case, I may not be able to file 485 supplement J and wait for its approval before joining new company (as it seems to take close to 6 months or so for that to happen). Now the only question is, should I file supplement J and immediately join the new organization or not worry about supplement J for now till RFE is issued by USCIS.
According to a recent Murthy article:

The supplement J may be filed proactively by the beneficiary at any time. If not, prior to approving the I-485, the USCIS should issue a request for evidence (RFE) or notice of intent to deny (NOID) to request an updated supplement J.
I have not fully understood what happens when an applicant keeps porting using AC21 through multiple jobs. I don't think the law requires you to file Supp J proactively. However, you need to have a current Supp J at the time of approval of I485 (when the PD becomes current). Now most attorneys suggest not filing Supp J. Ours did, however We forced them to do it for personal reasons.

Arguments *for* Filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. The company agreed to it when you accepted the job and they will do it at their own cost. No delaying business.
2. You do an updated I693 (Medicals). Keep medical documents up to date.
3. In 6 months, you know whether I485J was approved. If it was denied for any reason, you have time to file a PERM and port the date within 1.5 years of accepting the offer.

Arguments *against* filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. You can port using AC21 from Company A to B to C to D. All you need is to file Supp J for company D.
2. Current political climate is not conductive to smooth passing. However, I have not seen any I485J denials. This point may be moot.
3. Multiple attorneys are discouraging this option. I have not obtained a good explanation. It may not be that rewarding (financially for them) or they might want to save money for the company.

[ak7419]

Q - Wont the guys pull the Medical RFE .... and delay the approval even though the date is current ?
Family and I are contemplating a visit back home [this fall]. My belief is that even if i get current there will be an RFE due to expired medicals ....

Agree with your advice that its always better to listen to your attorney :)

I know someone personally who got approved with no medicals.

[jimmys]

Thank you for quick reply. I am not maintaining my H1. I did file 485 supplement J as response to RFE couple of years back and it took 6 months for it to get approved. Now if I change my employer do I need to file 485 supplement J? My attorney thinks no need till asked for by USCIS through an RFE. And in any case, I may not be able to file 485 supplement J and wait for its approval before joining new company (as it seems to take close to 6 months or so for that to happen). Now the only question is, should I file supplement J and immediately join the new organization or not worry about supplement J for now till RFE is issued b y USCIS.

You don't have to file 485J proactively. The law doesn't require you to file it as soon as you change your job. You just wait for an RFE or NOID from USCIS.

[incredible]

Thank you for your detailed explanations. In this case the attorney that I have is not associated with any of my companies. I have him as my attorney for quite some years and he helped filing 485 supplement J when it was asked through RFE couple of years back. I am looking at the worst case scenarios of your "For" filing 485 Supplement J and see a good idea to file it in parallel after joining the company. I see in your note that you mentioning about port using AC21. I remember back in 2012 when I changed the job, my new company gave me an AC21 letter that I had to send to USCIS through my attorney. Is that process still possible. I thought that was not required any more and in-lieu of that the supplement J process has come up.

According to a recent Murthy article:

I have not fully understood what happens when an applicant keeps porting using AC21 through multiple jobs. I don't think the law requires you to file Supp J proactively. However, you need to have a current Supp J at the time of approval of I485 (when the PD becomes current). Now most attorneys suggest not filing Supp J. Ours did, however We forced them to do it for personal reasons.

Arguments *for* Filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. The company agreed to it when you accepted the job and they will do it at their own cost. No delaying business.
2. You do an updated I693 (Medicals). Keep medical documents up to date.
3. In 6 months, you know whether I485J was approved. If it was denied for any reason, you have time to file a PERM and port the date within 1.5 years of accepting the offer.

Arguments *against* filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. You can port using AC21 from Company A to B to C to D. All you need is to file Supp J for company D.
2. Current political climate is not conductive to smooth passing. However, I have not seen any I485J denials. This point may be moot.
3. Multiple attorneys are discouraging this option. I have not obtained a good explanation. It may not be that rewarding (financially for them) or they might want to save money for the company.

[incredible]

Thank you. That seems to be the opinion of my attorney as well.


You don't have to file 485J proactively. The law doesn't require you to file it as soon as you change your job. You just wait for an RFE or NOID from USCIS.

[incredible]

Thanks. I am also curious to understand why you forced the attorney to file the supplement J. Also when you did it, did you wait for its approval prior to joining new organization or did it in parallel.


According to a recent Murthy article:

I have not fully understood what happens when an applicant keeps porting using AC21 through multiple jobs. I don't think the law requires you to file Supp J proactively. However, you need to have a current Supp J at the time of approval of I485 (when the PD becomes current). Now most attorneys suggest not filing Supp J. Ours did, however We forced them to do it for personal reasons.

Arguments *for* Filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. The company agreed to it when you accepted the job and they will do it at their own cost. No delaying business.
2. You do an updated I693 (Medicals). Keep medical documents up to date.
3. In 6 months, you know whether I485J was approved. If it was denied for any reason, you have time to file a PERM and port the date within 1.5 years of accepting the offer.

Arguments *against* filing I485J proactively after switching:
1. You can port using AC21 from Company A to B to C to D. All you need is to file Supp J for company D.
2. Current political climate is not conductive to smooth passing. However, I have not seen any I485J denials. This point may be moot.
3. Multiple attorneys are discouraging this option. I have not obtained a good explanation. It may not be that rewarding (financially for them) or they might want to save money for the company.

[excalibur123]

Thanks. I am also curious to understand why you forced the attorney to file the supplement J. Also when you did it, did you wait for its approval prior to joining new organization or did it in parallel.

I am not able to appreciate the need for supplement J when changing the job. Suppl J is provided when AOS is filed and is for future employer/employment. So why would that be needed when one joins any other employer before that.

[idliman]

Thanks. I am also curious to understand why you forced the attorney to file the supplement J. Also when you did it, did you wait for its approval prior to joining new organization or did it in parallel.
The reasons and opinions are purely personal in nature. There is no requirement in law to file I485J proactively as explained by everyone above.
My reasoning was Nebraska SC had sent I485J and I693 RFEs for everyone. So I thought TSC might do something like this anytime and I did not want to be in the middle of jobs or looking for a job when that happens. I also thought Nov2009 might get current in 2 years. Filing I485J proactively might give 2 years.

[idliman]

I am not able to appreciate the need for supplement J when changing the job. Suppl J is provided when AOS is filed and is for future employer/employment. So why would that be needed when one joins any other employer before that. If you think, an applicant is reasonably close to be current in 2 years or so, why wouldn't the applicant file for I485J proactively? In such cases you might get GC in mail without issues. There are many of us with I485 EADs waiting from 2012 onwards. At some point you might think that you are close. I did then, but not now. Of course the goal post keeps moving, and you wisen up at a later time.

[lville]

Can anyone here clarify this update on "When to file Adjustment of status from USCIS" ?

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-january-2020

Looks like if I'm not mistaken for EB3-I they are accepting Final action dates till Feb 2010.

[idliman]

Can anyone here clarify this update on "When to file Adjustment of status from USCIS" ?
https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-january-2020
Looks like if I'm not mistaken for EB3-I they are accepting Final action dates till Feb 2010.
Wow! Good catch. So, the State Departments Visa bulletin states FA for EB3I as 01JAN09. The USCIS says use DF date of 01FEB10. If you have a good attorney, hopefully you can win the argument. Considering the current political environment, what are the odds of winning?

[Ind2009]

Wow! Good catch. So, the State Departments Visa bulletin states FA for EB3I as 01JAN09. The USCIS says use DF date of 01FEB10. If you have a good attorney, hopefully you can win the argument. Considering the current political environment, what are the odds of winning?

There is a separate thread actively in progress on the Trackitt forum.
But I believe there is an error done by someone in the UI.
I also tried to contact the USCIS live chat and they claimed complete ignorance on that subject.
According to the live chat person, the website is created by a different team.

[Immigo]

There is a separate thread actively in progress on the Trackitt forum.
But I believe there is an error done by someone in the UI.
I also tried to contact the USCIS live chat and they claimed complete ignorance on that subject.
According to the live chat person, the website is created by a different team.

Interestingly, the date for filing was Feb 2010 for EB-3 India even between October and December, 2019. The URL for October date for filing is: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-october-2019. Similarly, for December: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-december-2019

[Ind2009]

Interestingly, the date for filing was Feb 2010 for EB-3 India even between October and December, 2019. The URL for October date for filing is: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-october-2019. Similarly, for December: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-december-2019

There is no change in filing date and Feb 2010 is correct for EB3 which has been open since Oct 2019. The confusion is created by the new section in the Final Action Dates for Employment 3rd and Other Worker Employment-Based Adjustment of Status Applications in the uscis.gov page for When to File Your Adjustment of Status Application. In this new section there is a mention for EB3 India, China and Philippines to use Final action dates from Filing dates below. Also EB3 Mexico Final action date is listed as current. While the filing date information is correct, Final action date information in the uscis.gov website is not.

[Ind2009]

Rethinking, on the logic for the new column, I believe there is a possibility that filing dates could remain open for select categories going forward in the coming months for both Family and Employment based cases.
This will allow them to get new applications from select categories, instead of letting it be open for all of EB or FB.

[gamma2]

I'm a silent member. PD is Mar 2010. Going by the current movement is 2023 - 2025 a realistic timeline? Couple of my friends with Apr 2009 PD just became citizens. What a difference 12 months makes! I'm looking at opportunities in UK so do not want to take a drastic step unless this looks like a lost cause

[swordfish380]

I'm a silent member. PD is Mar 2010. Going by the current movement is 2023 - 2025 a realistic timeline? Couple of my friends with Apr 2009 PD just became citizens. What a difference 12 months makes! I'm looking at opportunities in UK so do not want to take a drastic step unless this looks like a lost cause

Hypothetical scenario:
Your best bet for EB2I PD (Mar2010) to become current in 2023 is if economy crashes (worse than 2009 ).

Relasitic scenario:
Based on last demand data and porting considered, EB2I 2010 March will become current in 2027-2031.( Every year dates may move up to 2 months).

This is my take. (I am not a jotshi)

[excalibur123]

I'm a silent member. PD is Mar 2010. Going by the current movement is 2023 - 2025 a realistic timeline? Couple of my friends with Apr 2009 PD just became citizens. What a difference 12 months makes! I'm looking at opportunities in UK so do not want to take a drastic step unless this looks like a lost cause

Yes 2023-25 is a realistic timeline. EB2 had been unduly stuck due to EB3 porting which should ease off by at of this year as EB3 crosses EB2. My estimate is combined EB2/3 movement of 3 months per year after that.

[swordfish380]

Yes 2023-25 is a realistic timeline. EB2 had been unduly stuck due to EB3 porting which should ease off by at of this year as EB3 crosses EB2. My estimate is combined EB2/3 movement of 3 months per year after that.


I disagree with you.. Porting will never end. Indians or Chinese will jockey between eb2 and eb3 as long as one moves ahead of other.
If you combine eb2 and eb3 visas for India , you are looking at approximately 5400 visas.

If you combine eb2 and eb3 you will have around 5000 applicants in 2 months.

. It will take 7 to 10 years for eb2 i to reach 2010 March.

[excalibur123]

I disagree with you.. Porting will never end. Indians or Chinese will jockey between eb2 and eb3 as long as one moves ahead of other.
If you combine eb2 and eb3 visas for India , you are looking at approximately 5400 visas.

If you combine eb2 and eb3 you will have around 5000 applicants in 2 months.

. It will take 7 to 10 years for eb2 i to reach 2010 May.

yes porting will never end, but eb2 would move on its own merit once eb3 is past eb2.

also how are you getting 5000 per 2 months. As per last published PIs the number would be 2500 for eb2, and about 1200 for eb3 based on perm filings.

last he is in mar 2010 not may

[prabakarb]

You have the 2500 number form 485 inventory.Without pending 485 inventory you can only guesstimate what's in store for eb3i.

Perm filing number (1200 for eb3i) needs to be multiplied by 2.5 for dependents. Eb3i is 5 months behind eb2i, that means porting is happening as we dicuss. This means eb2i may or may not cross into July of 2009 this year.

Now you do the math if eb2i moves at the rate of LESS THAN 2 months, 2009 march is 10 months away. You need at least 7 or more years to reach Mar of 2009.


REALITY:
With current president in the office for next 5 years, economy may remain between OK to GOOD. So very little to no possibility of spill over.

( Lighter side) On top of this he does not like immigration, he may shut down USCIS :)

The current president is pro immigration (LEGAL). He proposed merit based legal immigration. He is anti Illegal immigration. I strongly believe on his next term, he will accomplish legal immigration reform which will greatly benefit us. Please do not watch leftwing propaganda media, they are nothing but spreading lies about this administration which is doing great. Do the research with facts.

[prabakarb]

The current president is pro LEGAL immigration and he is anti illegal immigration. I strongly believe that the administration will achieve legal merit based immigration in next term, which will greatly benefit us. Please do not listen to left wing media which is mostly propaganda and spreading lies.

[jimmys]

Now you do the math if eb2i moves at the rate of LESS THAN 2 months, 2009 march is 10 months away. You need at least 7 or more years to reach Mar of 2009.



EB2 I is already in May 2009. Why it takes 7 years to reach March 2009?

[gamma2]

EB2 I is already in May 2009. Why it takes 7 years to reach March 2009? Think he meant March 2010 which is fair given the speed with which dates are moving. They were May 2009 in 2014 and still in May 2009. Do not see this changing anytime soon

[swordfish380]

Typo's Corrected :


You have the 2500 number form 485 inventory.Without pending 485 inventory you can only guesstimate what's in store for eb3i.

Perm filing number (1200 for eb3i) needs to be multiplied by 2.5 for dependents. Eb3i is 5 months behind eb2i, that means porting is happening as we dicuss. This means eb2i may or may not cross into July of 2009 this year.

Now you do the math if eb2i moves at the rate of LESS THAN 2 months, 2010 march is 10 months away. You need at least 7 or more years to reach Mar of 2010.


REALITY:
With current president in the office for next 5 years, economy may remain between OK to GOOD. So very little to no possibility of spill over.

( Lighter side) On top of this he does not like immigration, he may shut down USCIS :)

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I feel your pain being a May 2010 PD myself :-) Couple of my friends too had April 2009 PD and just became USC and will be voting this year. USCIS and DoS have basically combined to slowly hide more and more data points so that it is impossible to make any predictions or hold them accountable. I have given up on my GC dream as of now as it has no more bearing on my career or life. The only reason I visit this forum for updates is because it has become increasing relevant in the past year for my wife to get a GC as she works on govt. projects and starting to get excluded in bits and parts of some because of not being a PR/USC (her name can't be issued in commendations though she can work on the projects, BS like that). Anyways, cheer up and hopefully things will work out, I am 40 now and these things are starting to become less relevant as long as I am allowed to continue staying and working here.

[paramjit74]

I feel your pain being a May 2010 PD myself :-) Couple of my friends too had April 2009 PD and just became USC and will be voting this year. USCIS and DoS have basically combined to slowly hide more and more data points so that it is impossible to make any predictions or hold them accountable. I have given up on my GC dream as of now as it has no more bearing on my career or life. The only reason I visit this forum for updates is because it has become increasing relevant in the past year for my wife to get a GC as she works on govt. projects and starting to get excluded in bits and parts of some because of not being a PR/USC (her name can't be issued in commendations though she can work on the projects, BS like that). Anyways, cheer up and hopefully things will work out, I am 40 now and these things are starting to become less relevant as long as I am allowed to continue staying and working here.

Full agree. However it really hits you hard if you have India born kids.

[mknop1]

My priority date is June 11 2010. I am currently on EB3 but my original I-140 application through a different employer was EB2. When should i expect to be able to file 485 and get EAD ? H1 is getting tougher by the day and my Canadian immigration invite is expiring. Would appreciate any insights.


I feel your pain being a May 2010 PD myself :-) Couple of my friends too had April 2009 PD and just became USC and will be voting this year. USCIS and DoS have basically combined to slowly hide more and more data points so that it is impossible to make any predictions or hold them accountable. I have given up on my GC dream as of now as it has no more bearing on my career or life. The only reason I visit this forum for updates is because it has become increasing relevant in the past year for my wife to get a GC as she works on govt. projects and starting to get excluded in bits and parts of some because of not being a PR/USC (her name can't be issued in commendations though she can work on the projects, BS like that). Anyways, cheer up and hopefully things will work out, I am 40 now and these things are starting to become less relevant as long as I am allowed to continue staying and working here.

[excalibur123]

My priority date is June 11 2010. I am currently on EB3 but my original I-140 application through a different employer was EB2. When should i expect to be able to file 485 and get EAD ? H1 is getting tougher by the day and my Canadian immigration invite is expiring. Would appreciate any insights.

They may extend the filing date to June for EB3 by the end of this year, but you may still have to wait another 4-8 months before you get your EAD in hand.

[mknop1]

That helps ! Even if there is a good chance of getting EAD by end of next year, at least there is hope at the end of the tunnel. Thank you very much.


They may extend the filing date to June for EB3 by the end of this year, but you may still have to wait another 4-8 months before you get your EAD in hand.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Sorry if this has been discussed: is the EB3 final action cutoff 1JAN09 or 01FEB10?

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-january-2020.html
https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-january-2020

[swordfish380]

Sorry if this has been discussed: is the EB3 final action cutoff 1JAN09 or 01FEB10?

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-january-2020.html
https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-january-2020

This was discussed on trackitt. As per USCIS this is an error.

[redsox2009]

USCIS release 2019 I-485 data, and I-140 data.






I-140 Received
I-140 Approved
I-485 Received
I-485 Approved


2017
139566
126213
139555
114480


2018
136585
135653
132708
109275




2019
142451
146361
103584
105059




What concerns me is the number of I-140 Applications received/approved. Since we don't know which category these are falling under and there could be more 485 waiting for filing. But the good thing is less 485's received compared to previous years, as the EB1 category has cut off date for filing.

485 applications received in the last 3 quarters are 23272;25986;26433.

[Spectator]

redsox,

Could you provide a link to the figures please.

I couldn't find them on the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data (https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data?ftopics_tid=0) page or any search I made.

The figures for I-485 received figures stack up. Q1 2019 was 27,893 from the Q3 All Forms Report (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY19Q3.pdf) and added to your figures for the last 3 quarters totals the 103,584 you quoted.

[redsox2009]

redsox,

Could you provide a link to the figures please.

I couldn't find them on the USCIS Immigration and Citizenship Data (https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data?ftopics_tid=0) page or any search I made.

The figures for I-485 received figures stack up. Q1 2019 was 27,893 from the Q3 All Forms Report (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY19Q3.pdf) and added to your figures for the last 3 quarters totals the 103,584 you quoted.



Damn they removed most of the files which they posted on Jan 14th

[redsox2009]

Here I found links

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_fy2019_qtr4.pdf

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY19Q4.pdf

[Spectator]

Here I found links

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Adjustment%20of%20Status/I485_performancedata_fy2019_qtr4.pdf

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY19Q4.pdf

redsox,

Thanks a lot.

[redsox2009]

Regarding Bulletin, I think CO is waiting for the data from the CO processing and USCIS. Last month as soon as Bulletin got released, the monthly CO data came out.

[jimmys]

Regarding Bulletin, I think CO is waiting for the data from the CO processing and USCIS. Last month as soon as Bulletin got released, the monthly CO data came out.

Hope there's a reduced demand for all the categories.

[swordfish380]

Hope there's a reduced demand for all the categories.

For last 7 years many reports have come and gone yet eb2i is still where it was 7 years.


These reports are like mirage in a desert. There is no water in desert.

Tomorrow there will be a Visa bulletin with 2 days movement.

Dont hold your breath.

[jimmys]

For last 7 years many reports have come and gone yet eb2i is still where it was 7 years.


These reports are like mirage in a desert. There is no water in desert.

Tomorrow there will be a Visa bulletin with 2 days movement.

Dont hold your breath.

Only EB2-I was stuck in the same month/year. But, EB3-India leaped a lot.

[EB32010]

Feb bulletin out:

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-february-2020.html

EB1 - No movement
EB2 - 1 day
EB3 - 7 days

And this snippet: Since October there has been a consistently high level of Employment-based demand, primarily for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. This trend is particularly apparent in the Employment Third and Third preference Other Worker categories. Unless there is a sudden and dramatic decrease in the level of such demand, it will be necessary to implement a “Rest of World” final action date for the month of March.

Is EB3 screwed this year also?

[swordfish380]

All the hype : eb2 india moves by 1 day.
May 19, 2009.

Its getting darker every month

[EB32010]

All the hype : eb2 india moves by 1 day.
May 19, 2009.

Its getting darker every month
At least EB2 ROW is not retrogessing. EB3 ROW sure is. Maybe EB2 will get some spillover if lucky.

[swordfish380]

swordfish380 said:
Today 03:43 PM
I see an email from where is my GC in my inbox
"
Dear User,

We will update the forecast sometime before middle of next week. Stay tuned.

Thanks & Regards,
"

I wonder what they are going to forecast.

" A 10 day movement for for eb2i in next 6 months? ".


This is my free prediction . :)

[lville]

I had said this before last month .

In Oct bulletin they had said there will be movement of 1 week for EB2-I and it moved by 1 day, 3 days and 3 days in subsequent bulletins. They said the same thing Jan Bulletin. So i'm hoping it will move by 3 days in March and April Bulletin. I believe when they project movement in Bulletin they forecast it for the quarter.

[idliman]

For last 7 years many reports have come and gone yet eb2i is still where it was 7 years.
These reports are like mirage in a desert. There is no water in desert.
Tomorrow there will be a Visa bulletin with 2 days movement.
Dont hold your breath.
We should let you predict and bless us before all bulletins. Spot on. Makes me think why are we even talking about VB movement? The following are the number of days of movement Since Feb2019.
FEB2020 Bulletin 19MAY09 1 day, 3 days, 2 days, 1 day, 4 days, 6 days, 8 days, 5 days, 3 days, 4 days, 3 days, 3 days, FEB2009 Bulletin -- 06APR09 5 days.

[jimmys]

Why didn't they release the FY'19 annual visa statistics yet? And, it's unbelievable to see the EB3 ROW demand. I get it, for the first two months in the FY, there's a pent up demand from previous year since EB3 WW had a PD in July or so. And, it's still peaking? Something is amiss. It would be interesting to see how visas were allocated last FY.

EB2 I movement is baffling. Just one day? How many applicants are going to be there in one day. Silverline for EB2 I is, EB2 ROW is not in danger of getting a PD.

[swordfish380]

We should let you predict and bless us before all bulletins. Spot on. Makes me think why are we even talking about VB movement? The following are the number of days of movement Since Feb2019.
FEB2020 Bulletin 19MAY09 1 day, 3 days, 2 days, 1 day, 4 days, 6 days, 8 days, 5 days, 3 days, 4 days, 3 days, 3 days, FEB2009 Bulletin -- 06APR09 5 days.

Anyone who is predicting PD movement with or without using published reports is no better than parrot astrologer in India.

when there is no hope people go to prediction agencies (baba's or nowadays websites). PK movie is a perfect example,

[qesehmk]

Anyone who is predicting PD movement with or without using published reports is no better than parrot astrologer in India.

when there is no hope people go to prediction agencies (baba's or nowadays websites). PK movie is a perfect example,

This is a bit over the top statement. Anybody who really believes that data and calculations based predictions are same as tarrot readers then please stop using this site or any other site you have on your mind.

This very thread is "Predictions (Rather Calculations)".

Before I first created such a thread on IV in 2007 (!) people literally hoped for a movement. Nobody knew what to expect when.
With this thread, using calculations and data we showed how EB-India is becoming a grave problem and how EB3-I has no hope. So people started moving to EB2 and then we predicted they will achieve parity and that's exactly what happened. Then we predicted reverse porting from EB2-3 ... it already has happened in case of china ... not so much for India. Then we saw all extra visas disappear from EB4 and EB1 ....

None of this would have been possible without data based approach.

The irrational movement today is not problem of data or lack thereof - it is driven by policy. How else you explain consistent elimination of backlogs in every other area except EB-IC? How else do you explain waste of visas in EB category or allocating more than 7% EB visas to other countries under the pretext that they are underutilizing their visas in FB .... but then the same DOS also says 7% is not really quota. Really? Hmm .... so if this is not policy driven then what is.

That is the real limitation of any prediction ... even more so than non-availability of data.

[swordfish380]

This is a bit over the top statement. Anybody who really believes that data and calculations based predictions are same as tarrot readers then please stop using this site or any other site you have on your mind.

This very thread is "Predictions (Rather Calculations)".

Before I first created such a thread on IV in 2007 (!) people literally hoped for a movement. Nobody knew what to expect when.
With this thread, using calculations and data we showed how EB-India is becoming a grave problem and how EB3-I has no hope. So people started moving to EB2 and then we predicted they will achieve parity and that's exactly what happened. Then we predicted reverse porting from EB2-3 ... it already has happened in case of china ... not so much for India. Then we saw all extra visas disappear from EB4 and EB1 ....

None of this would have been possible without data based approach.

The irrational movement today is not problem of data or lack thereof - it is driven by policy. How else you explain consistent elimination of backlogs in every other area except EB-IC? How else do you explain waste of visas in EB category or allocating more than 7% EB visas to other countries under the pretext that they are underutilizing their visas in FB .... but then the same DOS also says 7% is not really quota. Really? Hmm .... so if this is not policy driven then what is.

That is the real limitation of any prediction ... even more so than non-availability of data.


Hello Q,

With all do respect to the great work q, you and others have done in coming up with a great system to calculate the movement, my comments are just rants and no way i am demeaning anyone's work.

I also attribute the sluggish movement to lack of transparency and policy.

Years back Matt and you guys were spot on because we had access to more data and policy was different.

now with one or two reports which are available to predict with some complex calculations you can still predict but the reality is current administration hates immigration ,(Similar to CAA in India) you will only see a day or two movement in future.

[idliman]

The irrational movement today is not problem of data or lack thereof - it is driven by policy. How else you explain consistent elimination of backlogs in every other area except EB-IC? How else do you explain waste of visas in EB category or allocating more than 7% EB visas to other countries under the pretext that they are underutilizing their visas in FB .... but then the same DOS also says 7% is not really quota. Really? Hmm .... so if this is not policy driven then what is.

That is the real limitation of any prediction ... even more so than non-availability of data.
Most users in your forum/blog are well informed and smarter than regular crowd. However, it is frustrating for any to keep facing stagnating PDs for the last 4 years. None of the prediction math has worked reasonably in the last few years. I thought even conservatively we will see end of 2009 in so many years, 3 years back. It is normal to show some anger / mistrust in prediction data. I am sure that's what Canada and swordfish showed in their posts. A person who thinks he/ she is closer to finish line has much more to lose and get disappointed. We should respect all views. As you had put down in words, what's happening now maybe beyond prediction territory.

[Blue_fairy]

Assuming there is no intentional throttling and weird interpretation of the policy, what in your opinion, could explain the slow movement for EB2 I. Is it still porting?

We can't calculate the date movement due to lack of data, but can we hypothesize what might be behind such slow movement?

[qesehmk]

Most users in your forum/blog are well informed and smarter than regular crowd. However, it is frustrating for any to keep facing stagnating PDs for the last 4 years. None of the prediction math has worked reasonably in the last few years. I thought even conservatively we will see end of 2009 in so many years, 3 years back. It is normal to show some anger / mistrust in prediction data. I am sure that's what Canada and swordfish showed in their posts. A person who thinks he/ she is closer to finish line has much more to lose and get disappointed. We should respect all views. As you had put down in words, what's happening now maybe beyond prediction territory.
Even if true, data and predictions is still the least imperfect way to make decisions. If you say I would rather hope and pray, still fine with me.

[qesehmk]

Assuming there is no intentional throttling and weird interpretation of the policy, what in your opinion, could explain the slow movement for EB2 I. Is it still porting?

We can't calculate the date movement due to lack of data, but can we hypothesize what might be behind such slow movement?

I have done this in the past .... but I will try to summarize.

USCIS/DOS have consistently reduced backlogs in ALL other areas except EB-IC. That's not a hypothesis ... this is a fact.

First there used to be huge labor backlog ... they eliminated that in order to generate ROW demand
Then they eliminated 140 backlog in similar fashion to generate ROW demand.
Then they eliminated 485 EB2/EB3 ROW backlog .... including phillipines nurses backlog which was huge.
While doing all of this they started applying 7% limit across EB and FB to starve EB-IC at the expense of ROW demand in FB (e.g. S korea)
And on top of all of this if you look at last few years they have wasted EB visas as well. The consumption is less than allocation.

As of now we don't how they are able to hold dates off ... we will know in a year or two.

Now - how do I guess all of this? The answer is data and calculations!!

[Blue_fairy]

Thank you sir. That seems some pretty serious and intentional screw up. What did we Indians do to deserve it?



I have done this in the past .... but I will try to summarize.

USCIS/DOS have consistently reduced backlogs in ALL other areas except EB-IC. That's not a hypothesis ... this is a fact.

First there used to be huge labor backlog ... they eliminated that in order to generate ROW demand
Then they eliminated 140 backlog in similar fashion to generate ROW demand.
Then they eliminated 485 EB2/EB3 ROW backlog .... including phillipines nurses backlog which was huge.
While doing all of this they started applying 7% limit across EB and FB to starve EB-IC at the expense of ROW demand in FB (e.g. S korea)
And on top of all of this if you look at last few years they have wasted EB visas as well. The consumption is less than allocation.

As of now we don't how they are able to hold dates off ... we will know in a year or two.

Now - how do I guess all of this? The answer is data and calculations!!

[qesehmk]

Thank you sir. That seems some pretty serious and intentional screw up. What did we Indians do to deserve it?
Please call me Q.
Good question. We all can guess but who knows for sure. Lets see what people think.

[jimmys]

Please call me Q.
Good question. We all can guess but who knows for sure. Lets see what people think.

You call it coincidence. But, after DoS/USCIS were sued by Indian nationals for 2015 VB fiasco, they completely stopped doing any favors to EB India category, particularly for EB2 India. They just let ourselves mend within the annual quota.

[amarrecherla]

I have done this in the past .... but I will try to summarize.

USCIS/DOS have consistently reduced backlogs in ALL other areas except EB-IC. That's not a hypothesis ... this is a fact.

First there used to be huge labor backlog ... they eliminated that in order to generate ROW demand
Then they eliminated 140 backlog in similar fashion to generate ROW demand.
Then they eliminated 485 EB2/EB3 ROW backlog .... including phillipines nurses backlog which was huge.
While doing all of this they started applying 7% limit across EB and FB to starve EB-IC at the expense of ROW demand in FB (e.g. S korea)
And on top of all of this if you look at last few years they have wasted EB visas as well. The consumption is less than allocation.

As of now we don't how they are able to hold dates off ... we will know in a year or two.

Now - how do I guess all of this? The answer is data and calculations!!

Q, what is the basis for applying 7% limit across EB and FB? what is the best way for USCIS/DOS to answer this? I guess this is is costing 5000 visa numbers to India.

Should we file a case on this or seek clarification from agencies?

[jimmys]

Q, what is the basis for applying 7% limit across EB and FB? what is the best way for USCIS/DOS to answer this? I guess this is is costing 5000 visa numbers to India.

Should we file a case on this or seek clarification from agencies?

Looks like the law. From the visa bulletin:

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-february-2020.html

2. Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320.

[monsieur]

even with 7% limit, EB2-I should be getting 2800 atleast; isn't that not the case?

[jimmys]

even with 7% limit, EB2-I should be getting 2800 atleast; isn't that not the case?

Yes. This year it's about 3100 including FB spillover from last year.

[qesehmk]

Q, what is the basis for applying 7% limit across EB and FB? what is the best way for USCIS/DOS to answer this? I guess this is is costing 5000 visa numbers to India.

Should we file a case on this or seek clarification from agencies?

They site INA. But I think their interpretation is flawed. I think it is worthwhile pursuing a clarification or some sort of action.


Looks like the law. From the visa bulletin:

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-february-2020.html

2. Section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) sets an annual minimum family-sponsored preference limit of 226,000. The worldwide level for annual employment-based preference immigrants is at least 140,000. Section 202 prescribes that the per-country limit for preference immigrants is set at 7% of the total annual family-sponsored and employment-based preference limits, i.e., 25,620. The dependent area limit is set at 2%, or 7,320.

That is a new and flawed interpretation. If EB explicitly has a lower limit (note lower!!) of 140K visas then granting any EB visas to FB itself is violation of INA.

[texas_]

Thanks Q

There may be corrupt lobbyist and govt officers don't want EB India Priority Dates progression

[amarrecherla]

Thanks Q for answering this.
This link (https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title8-section1152&num=0&edition=prelim) has information on numerical limitations.
Below is the text:
the total number of immigrant visas made available to natives of any single foreign state or dependent area under subsections (a) and (b) of section 1153 of this title in any fiscal year may not exceed 7 percent (in the case of a single foreign state) or 2 percent (in the case of a dependent area) of the total number of such visas made available under such subsections in that fiscal year.

It clearly says 7 percent of subsection unless I am understanding it wrong.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Pardon my unrelated question, but I could think of no other forum than this to get it answered. The F2A Category has confounded me. 'Final Action' date is current while, 'Filing Date' is 1st Dec, which in itself is wierd in the first place. The other confusion I had was, what exactly is the 'Filing Date' mean? Is it the date of Filing I-130 or Date of filing I-485 or the Date of Marriage?

[AceMan]

I have done this in the past .... but I will try to summarize.

USCIS/DOS have consistently reduced backlogs in ALL other areas except EB-IC. That's not a hypothesis ... this is a fact.

First there used to be huge labor backlog ... they eliminated that in order to generate ROW demand
Then they eliminated 140 backlog in similar fashion to generate ROW demand.
Then they eliminated 485 EB2/EB3 ROW backlog .... including phillipines nurses backlog which was huge.
While doing all of this they started applying 7% limit across EB and FB to starve EB-IC at the expense of ROW demand in FB (e.g. S korea)
And on top of all of this if you look at last few years they have wasted EB visas as well. The consumption is less than allocation.

As of now we don't how they are able to hold dates off ... we will know in a year or two.

Now - how do I guess all of this? The answer is data and calculations!!


The biggest joke with Philippines FB is their dates are retrogressed behind ROW. And they don’t get enough applicants in FB. Last year it was current for a month and this year it is still behind.

[altek001]

--New DHS Data Shows the Changing Face of U.S. Immigration

https://www.boundless.com/blog/dhs-data-2018/

[vyruss]

I will be current beginning February.

Couple of questions to veterans on this forum:
When to raise a SR? After one month wait?
When to meet Congress Rep? After one month wait?

[paramjit74]

I will be current beginning February.

Couple of questions to veterans on this forum:
When to raise a SR? After one month wait?
When to meet Congress Rep? After one month wait?

As per your profile you PD is May 19. You will not be current in Feb. Only dates before FAD are current.

[Moveon]

As per your profile you PD is May 19. You will not be current in Feb. Only dates before FAD are current.

Yes that is right . The bulletin states " Numbers are authorized for issuance only for applicants whose priority date is earlier than the final action date listed below".

So it the date is May 19th , only applicants before 19th are current . IOWs cutoff date is 18th May.
But dates will move for March , so you will be current in March for sure. Best of luck

[vyruss]

Yes that is right . The bulletin states " Numbers are authorized for issuance only for applicants whose priority date is earlier than the final action date listed below".

So it the date is May 19th , only applicants before 19th are current . IOWs cutoff date is 18th May.
But dates will move for March , so you will be current in March for sure. Best of luck

My PD is 18th May. I made the change in my profile.

[paramjit74]

My PD is 18th May. I made the change in my profile.

Congrats !! Mine is 3 weeks away. I don't know how long I have to wait.

[Moveon]

Congrats !! Mine is 3 weeks away. I don't know how long I have to wait.

Paramjit , lets hope it gets there in march , but more realistically May but definitely this fiscal.

[kb2013]

Any guess as to when Jan 2010 EB3I FAD will be current? EB3I FD has been at Feb 2010 for long time...

[LASHAB]

Any guess as to when Jan 2010 EB3I FAD will be current? EB3I FD has been at Feb 2010 for long time...

it will take a while. The EB2I folks in from Jul 2009 and 2010 who have never filed for AOS will flood EB3 since Filing Dates for EB3 is ahead of EB2 and USCIS has been accepting filing dates so far this FY

[kb2013]

it will take a while. The EB2I folks in from Jul 2009 and 2010 who have never filed for AOS will flood EB3 since Filing Dates for EB3 is ahead of EB2 and USCIS has been accepting filing dates so far this FY

By this time, I would think, most of them would have filed for AOS or others who wanted to downgrade would have done so, as the filing dates have been in 2010 for quite some time... Why are the EB3I filing dates still in Feb 2010, if they know FAD can't get there anytime soon? And also, likely, most eligible people in that period, already applied for AOS. I am hoping it is only the CP pressure. Or do they want to encourage more downgrade?

[altek001]

By this time, I would think, most of them would have filed for AOS or others who wanted to downgrade would have done so, as the filing dates have been in 2010 for quite some time... Why are the EB3I filing dates still in Feb 2010, if they know FAD can't get there anytime soon? And also, likely, most eligible people in that period, already applied for AOS. I am hoping it is only the CP pressure. Or do they want to encourage more downgrade?

USCIS wants to know how many EB2I folks are likely to downgrade if DF are pushed to Feb 2010 and beyond. Those who had not seen EB2 dates moved forward, will likely look at downgrade options (if EB2 is not moving forward), thereby providing insight for USCIS on how Final action dates for both categories need to be moved. EB2 and EB3 will move close to each other and in time, balance out.

[incredible]

Hi Gurus,

I have a supplement-J question. I am EB2 2010 having EAD and AP. I do not use H1 any more. I have a new offer from a start-up and they are willing to help me in filing supplement -J as well. I have a question in supplement -J employer section. One of the items in the employer section is about Gross Income and Net Income of the employer. As this is a small start-up they are still not at a level where they can make numbers (especially on the net income side). How would that affect in approval of Supplement -J. They are in cutting edge technology and have just started up with making some revenues. Any light on this would be appreciated.

Thanks

[incredible]

Hi Gurus,

I have a supplement-J question. I am EB2 2010 having EAD and AP. I do not use H1 any more. I have a new offer from a start-up and they are willing to help me in filing supplement -J as well. I have a question in supplement -J employer section. One of the items in the employer section is about Gross Income and Net Income of the employer. As this is a small start-up they are still not at a level where they can make numbers (especially on the net income side). How would that affect in approval of Supplement -J. They are in cutting edge technology and have just started up with making some revenues. Any light on this would be appreciated.

Thanks

Hi

If it helps anyone, I have consulted an Attorney on this and his suggestion was to only include the Gross Revenue and leave out the Net Income. I am going to provide it like that and send Supplement -J. I will keep you all posted on how it goes.

[need4speed]

Thank you for sharing, glad you decide to work on something that excites you.

[excalibur123]

Hi

If it helps anyone, I have consulted an Attorney on this and his suggestion was to only include the Gross Revenue and leave out the Net Income. I am going to provide it like that and send Supplement -J. I will keep you all posted on how it goes.

Hey incredible - Good to see you have sorted this out.

Just to know the general approach - when you join an another company on EAD, is the idea that when your date becomes current would you go back to your sponsoring employer?

Also from what I have read when changing job on EAD you have to ensure 2 things - get Suppl J and that SOC code remains the same. Did you have to ensure something else as well?

Good luck.

[jimmys]

Also from what I have read when changing job on EAD you have to ensure 2 things - get Suppl J and that SOC code remains the same. Did you have to ensure something else as well?

Good luck.

The SOC code doesn't have to be the same. It has to be similar.

[lville]

What is this ?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Employment-based/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf

[jimmys]

What is this ?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Employment-based/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf

I-140 statistics from USCIS.

[incredible]

Hey incredible - Good to see you have sorted this out.

Just to know the general approach - when you join an another company on EAD, is the idea that when your date becomes current would you go back to your sponsoring employer?

Also from what I have read when changing job on EAD you have to ensure 2 things - get Suppl J and that SOC code remains the same. Did you have to ensure something else as well?

Good luck.

Hi excalibur

Thanks for your suggestion. The SOC code based on what attorney told me need to be similar or same. In my case the SOC code used back in 2010 when labor was filed does not exist any more. I had to use an exactly same description but a different SOC code that has since replaced the original one.

[excalibur123]

Hi excalibur

Thanks for your suggestion. The SOC code based on what attorney told me need to be similar or same. In my case the SOC code used back in 2010 when labor was filed does not exist any more. I had to use an exactly same description but a different SOC code that has since replaced the original one.

Thanks. Do you plan to go back to sponsoring employer when your date becomes current?

[incredible]

Thanks. Do you plan to go back to sponsoring employer when your date becomes current?
Not exactly. My 485 was filed back in 2012 (PD of 2010). The whole purpose of filing Supplement - J is work for the future employer when the date is current.

[FarAwayfromGC]

I-140 statistics from USCIS.

What does it mean ? 366,717 I140s approved in all EB1,2,3 categories in last 3 FYs (2017-18-19)? It seems small, I may be wrong !!

Can Guru's analyze and forecast?

[monsieur]

What does it mean ? 366,717 I140s approved in all EB1,2,3 categories in last 3 FYs (2017-18-19)? It seems small, I may be wrong !!

Can Guru's analyze and forecast?

I-140 is filed only for primary candidate. I-485 is filed with dependent (spouse + kids if any) so you multiple this number by atleast 1.5 to 3 whatever ratio make sense to you to get total number of GC needed. This is the simplest option.

Let me add few more complexity (reason why prediction became so hard)

1. You moved jobs and have to refile I-140, so duplication
2. Your spouse GC is also in progress, another I-140
3. You are porting and decided to file I-140 to move to EB3 or EB2


With multiplier of 2, based on i-140 approval rate around ~700K EB visa needed to clear past 3 yr application; each yr EB gets ~140K so ~280K folks are waiting in line just past 3 yrs. But this is worst case scenario, real world number will be much less coz of other factors which I listed above,

[FarAwayfromGC]

I-140 is filed only for primary candidate. I-485 is filed with dependent (spouse + kids if any) so you multiple this number by atleast 1.5 to 3 whatever ratio make sense to you to get total number of GC needed. This is the simplest option.

Let me add few more complexity (reason why prediction became so hard)

1. You moved jobs and have to refile I-140, so duplication
2. Your spouse GC is also in progress, another I-140
3. You are porting and decided to file I-140 to move to EB3 or EB2


With multiplier of 2, based on i-140 approval rate around ~700K EB visa needed to clear past 3 yr application; each yr EB gets ~140K so ~280K folks are waiting in line just past 3 yrs. But this is worst case scenario, real world number will be much less coz of other factors which I listed above,

Thank you, now I get it !

This stat is of no use !!!

[monsieur]

Thank you, now I get it !

This stat is of no use !!!

Its not totally useless, you can get some insight.

Like - EB1 filing is trending downwards since 2017. esp true for India (2nd page). Approvals have gone down (6k to 5k) for EB1C category from 2017 to 2018.

For 2019 -
total # of cases filed are reduced by 10% (~800) in EB1 category whereas spike in EB2 and 3 category.
Processing time has increased (many pending cases) in all categories.

Maybe USCIS is doing their due diligence or just being slow and not let folks come in. It can cause ripple effect in terms of EB1 filing or downward porting.

[kb2013]

What was the latest date EB3I applicant that got approved in this forum? Are Jan 2009 EB3Is getting approved? I am not seeing much EB3Is celebrating approvals here. Since, other predictions are not feasible nowadays, without correct data, I guess this will be the closest indicator of how far we are to the AOS. I downgraded to EB3 based on this forum advise.

[srimurthy]

Its not totally useless, you can get some insight.

Like - EB1 filing is trending downwards since 2017. esp true for India (2nd page). Approvals have gone down (6k to 5k) for EB1C category from 2017 to 2018.

For 2019 -
total # of cases filed are reduced by 10% (~800) in EB1 category whereas spike in EB2 and 3 category.
Processing time has increased (many pending cases) in all categories.

Maybe USCIS is doing their due diligence or just being slow and not let folks come in. It can cause ripple effect in terms of EB1 filing or downward porting.

The downward filing trend may only be temporary as the dates has rolled back or stuck for EB1 too. Once they start moving my understanding is you will see the numbers going back again. Also with EB1, there is a high probability that for each 140 filing, there will be Spouse + kids for sure as these are already working folks in India with experience. Not a case of EB2 / EB3 who might have been here for more than 15 years and kids are born here. So the EB1 ratio may be higher than EB2 / EB3 dependents ratio.
The best option I see for EB2 / EB3 folks is work in another country for a year and then take a international transfer (if the employers support) and file in EB1 and port the date from the existing EB2 / EB3.

[monsieur]

The downward filing trend may only be temporary as the dates has rolled back or stuck for EB1 too. Once they start moving my understanding is you will see the numbers going back again. Also with EB1,

These are I-140 numbers, so I-485 date retrogression will not have any impact on filing. If thats the case than why EB2/EB3 filing went up? If I am in that shoe, I will prefer to file my I-140 asap so when date advances I get a chance to file I-485. In my mind, its only scrutiny or high chances of rejection will make me think abt filing in that particular category.

[gs1968]

Is this report accurate or are they including EB+FB?
If this is indeed the case then a tenth of the backlog has been cleared and the dates should move

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/visa-and-immigration/indians-bag-half-of-employer-sponsored-green-cards-in-2019/articleshow/74167467.cms

[4WatItsWorth]

My PD in June 2011 EB3-I. I thought it will become current early 2023. But not sure as EB2 downgrades may impact. What are everyone's thought on the same?


Forget about 2023... you should get your GC by 2020. Only X-factor is the downward porting rate. Which I don't think an issue at-least for an year or two.
Lucky you didn't upgrade but don't curse down graders now, they suffered a lot due to upgrades earlier.
YTeleven, 2020 is already underway and dates are barely moving. What is your latest take on 2020, do you think 2009 has a chance to clear?

[Spectator]

Is this report accurate or are they including EB+FB?
If this is indeed the case then a tenth of the backlog has been cleared and the dates should move

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/visa-and-immigration/indians-bag-half-of-employer-sponsored-green-cards-in-2019/articleshow/74167467.cms

gs1968,

Whoever wrote the article does not have a clue about US immigration.

The figures quoted refer to the recently released USCIS figures for I-140 (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Employment-based/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf).

Very different from "Green Cards" as the author refers to them.

[jimmys]

YTeleven, 2020 is already underway and dates are barely moving. What is your latest take on 2020, do you think 2009 has a chance to clear?

It goes to show how hard it's to predict where the FAD will be in the future. Exactly a year ago VO was talking about 3 months movement per VB for EB-3 India(In FEB 19 bulletin EB3-India was at Apr 22,09) and 1 year later we're well behind (In FEB 20, EB-3 India Jan 8,2009) where we were a year ago. :(

If you take the first three months of consular processing data, the EB-3 India demand is at 70% (493/700) for the first quarter of FY'20.

In May 19, all of a sudden EB-3 ROW demand started to shoot up(This was the reason VO was unable to keep his 3 months movement per bulletin talk for EB-3 India) and it's still not receding as per CO. And, there are no signs of receding in the coming months thus imposing a PD for EB-3 ROW.

Any imposition of EB-3 ROW PDs as early as March and unrelenting consular demand for EB-3 India mean it is all gloom and doom for EB-3 India in FY '20.

[YTeleven]

It goes to show how hard it's to predict where the FAD will be in the future. Exactly a year ago VO was talking about 3 months movement per VB for EB-3 India(In FEB 19 bulletin EB3-India was at Apr 22,09) and 1 year later we're well behind (In FEB 20, EB-3 India Jan 8,2009) where we were a year ago. :(

If you take the first three months of consular processing data, the EB-3 India demand is at 70% (493/700) for the first quarter of FY'20.

In May 19, all of a sudden EB-3 ROW demand started to shoot up(This was the reason VO was unable to keep his 3 months movement per bulletin talk for EB-3 India) and it's still not receding as per CO. And, there are no signs of receding in the coming months thus imposing a PD for EB-3 ROW.

Any imposition of EB-3 ROW PDs as early as March and unrelenting consular demand for EB-3 India mean it is all gloom and doom for EB-3 India in FY '20.

The 4 fold increase in EB3-ROW demand is blocking EB3-I to get any spillover within EB3 catagory.
But still EB3-I is getting total visas ~6K/year which is better than EB2-I visas.
Also, estimated EB3-I pending applications are 25% of EB2-I pending applications.
That makes EB3-I movement is always ahead of EB2-I movement in next 10 years with current laws in place.

|FY Received |EB3ROW I-140 Applications|
| 2012 | 6238 |
| 2013 | 5619 |
| 2014 | 6724 |
| 2015 | 10993 |
| 2016 | 21624 |
| 2017 | 22950 |
| 2018 | 26124 |
| 2019 | 30210 |

[YTeleven]

gs1968,

Whoever wrote the article does not have a clue about US immigration.

The figures quoted refer to the recently released USCIS figures for I-140 (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Employment-based/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf).

Very different from "Green Cards" as the author refers to them.

First I thought its a fake news but seeing that the publisher is NOT a fake one.
You are correct that the author doesn't have any clue about the US immigration.

[gs1968]

gs1968,

Whoever wrote the article does not have a clue about US immigration.

The figures quoted refer to the recently released USCIS figures for I-140 (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Employment-based/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf).

Very different from "Green Cards" as the author refers to them.

Thanks Spec. It did appear fishy and I only brought it up because the Times of India group is a reliable news source

[zenmaster]

March Bulletin
-----------------
Final Action Dates :
EB1 = 01MAR15 ( 2 months fwd movement )
EB2 = 22MAY09 ( 3 days fwd movement )
EB3 = 15JAN09 ( 1 week fwd movement )

[mcmilers]

you are almost there :)

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. It did appear fishy and I only brought it up because the Times of India group is a reliable news source
I scanned it and I thought the article gave statistic that may be true but misleading.
e.g. it said that last year approx 68K people applied and 58K got approved. Now on the face it looks like EB-India has no problem ....
But statistic is a thing that shows what's important and hides what's vital.
What's vital here is the fact that of the 68K applied - almost none was EB2 and 3 where people are waiting just to file 485 for over 10 years now!!

So 68K if true, almost entirely consisted of EB1 / 4/ 5.

And second - even of those 68K not all received GCs same year. In fact majority won't even if those categories are current (4/5 ... not so 1).

So the situation is like a government office with 2 doors. We make people wait at the first door and only let a few people in at door 2 and then we claim that the queue at door 2 is moving reasonably well. Well of course it will if you only let people in to door 2 to the extent you can process them.

[jimmys]

EB-3 ROW has a PD now and VO said it's not going to change in the foreseeable future. Does it mean EB-3 ROW has utilized the complete FY'20 numbers? EB-3 ROW as current even for Feb'20 so not that many cases can be pending before Jan 1, 2017.

EB-3 India will get adversely affected by this move.

[bourne_ny]

I have a question for spectator and q regarding EB2 movement:

I'm just a little confused about the old pending inventory. Below is the link from July 2018 when there was still a little accountability and the inventory was still being published.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Data/Employment-based/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_2018 .pdf

As you know the FAD for:
1) October 2019 bulletin was 12th May 2009
2) March 2020 it moved to 22nd May 2009 (I know it moved a whopping 10 days under current administration)

The 2018 PI says 1429 for May and 1411 for June. That brings the total to 2840. We are at the end of 6 months for this fiscal year i.e 2 quarters. Let’s forget about June for the moment, and also not going by exact numbers from P1 (those numbers are just for a perspective) but shouldn’t we have cleared May in 6 months of this fiscal year at the very least since the bulletin at the start of this fiscal year was already 12 days into May. I don’t believe that many upgrades have happened from EB3 to EB2 to even not clear May in first 2 quarters (1400 or 700 per quarter), since this inventory is not very old (it’s from 2018). Going by the current way it looks like EB2 might not clear June this year. I'm not a Pandit and have been wrong in the past because I thought EB3 would be ahead or at the same point as EB2 by 2019.

I really hope I’m wrong so I asked the question to get a better understanding. It’s like a black box and the numbers look cooked up. Little remaining accountability has completely disappeared. They also somehow have found a way to curb spillovers.
I think starvation aka natural attrition is the new policy for this administration, and they’re damn good at it since you have to provide no accountability or answers anymore. A wise man once sang: If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break. When the levee breaks I'll have no place to stay!!

Thanks in advance!

[kb2013]

The 4 fold increase in EB3-ROW demand is blocking EB3-I to get any spillover within EB3 catagory.
But still EB3-I is getting total visas ~6K/year which is better than EB2-I visas.
Also, estimated EB3-I pending applications are 25% of EB2-I pending applications.
That makes EB3-I movement is always ahead of EB2-I movement in next 10 years with current laws in place.

|FY Received |ROW I-140 Applications|
| 2012 | 6238 |
| 2013 | 5619 |
| 2014 | 6724 |
| 2015 | 10993 |
| 2016 | 21624 |
| 2017 | 22950 |
| 2018 | 26124 |
| 2019 | 30210 |

2009 Eb3I has 4422 approved I140 petitions. Even considering multiplication factor of 2.5, 6k visas/year will clear it in 2 years. Are we really getting that many visas? EB3I FAD has been in 2009 since Aug 2018. It even went up to July of 2009 for 3 months. Why did the backlog not reduce? Even CP numbers should be within the I140 numbers right?

[qesehmk]

I have a question for spectator and q regarding EB2 movement:

I'm just a little confused about the old pending inventory. Below is the link from July 2018 when there was still a little accountability and the inventory was still being published.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Data/Employment-based/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_2018 .pdf

As you know the FAD for:
1) October 2019 bulletin was 12th May 2009
2) March 2020 it moved to 22nd May 2009 (I know it moved a whopping 10 days under current administration)

The 2018 PI says 1429 for May and 1411 for June. That brings the total to 2840. We are at the end of 6 months for this fiscal year i.e 2 quarters. Let’s forget about June for the moment, and also not going by exact numbers from P1 (those numbers are just for a perspective) but shouldn’t we have cleared May in 6 months of this fiscal year at the very least since the bulletin at the start of this fiscal year was already 12 days into May. I don’t believe that many upgrades have happened from EB3 to EB2 to even not clear May in first 2 quarters (1400 or 700 per quarter), since this inventory is not very old (it’s from 2018). Going by the current way it looks like EB2 might not clear June this year. I'm not a Pandit and have been wrong in the past because I thought EB3 would be ahead or at the same point as EB2 by 2019.

I really hope I’m wrong so I asked the question to get a better understanding. It’s like a black box and the numbers look cooked up. Little remaining accountability has completely disappeared. They also somehow have found a way to curb spillovers.
I think starvation aka natural attrition is the new policy for this administration, and they’re damn good at it since you have to provide no accountability or answers anymore. A wise man once sang: If it keeps on rainin', levee's goin' to break. When the levee breaks I'll have no place to stay!!

Thanks in advance!

Sorry what's the question? Whether EB2-I will clear June? I have stopped doing manual calculations long time back. Honestly I am amazed how the dates haven't moved for EB2-I ... it only means that a) the demand for EB2-I has been rock solid b) enough porting has already happened to keep the dates in 2009 May. Also explains the relative speed at which EB3-I has moved. Going forward those two will be more or less in tandem.

Regarding visibility - it is more of DHS' fault rather than DoS. DHS even stopped honoring the 485 filing dates ... so you can see how DHS and DoS are already not working in sync. The move to stop using service centers to clear 485 backlog is just yet another fight between DHS and DoS.

DoS folks are naturally pro-immigration because their work exposes them to outside world. DHS on the other hand is interested in building walls around America.

[jimmys]

2009 Eb3I has 4422 approved I140 petitions. Even considering multiplication factor of 2.5, 6k visas/year will clear it in 2 years. Are we really getting that many visas? EB3I FAD has been in 2009 since Aug 2018. It even went up to July of 2009 for 3 months. Why did the backlog not reduce? Even CP numbers should be within the I140 numbers right?

Dates moving to July 1,2009 doesn't mean all the applicants before that date were approved. If you look at the CP numbers, it's still going strong with 2008 or prior PDs. And, also we don't know if EB-3 India received 6K for FY 19 or will receive 6K for FY 20. We don't know how many are still left in 2008 or prior. There are a lot of unknowns at this point of time. Given the fact EB-3 ROW already fallen to backlog for this FY, it's very hard for EB-3 to go anywhere.

[bourne_ny]

Thanks for the answer! I guess DOS and DHS not being in sync is the reason for slowness and no visibility. In fact it serves the DHS because their goal was to slow immigration down. DHS knows they don't have to be accountable and can cook up the numbers. They know no one can investigate them. This could eventually lead to EB2 not clearing even June 2009 this year, and EB3 is still 5 months behind. Well it all depends on the spill overs which have kind of completely dried up.

[monsieur]

Thanks for the answer! I guess DOS and DHS not being in sync is the reason for slowness and no visibility. In fact it serves the DHS because their goal was to slow immigration down. DHS knows they don't have to be accountable and can cook up the numbers. They know no one can investigate them. This could eventually lead to EB2 not clearing even June 2009 this year, and EB3 is still 5 months behind. Well it all depends on the spill overs which have kind of completely dried up.

You are giving too much credit to DHS for being smart, cunning and manipulative. They are typical govt agency which has high % of inefficiency. Folks from China and India are paying for it which is small % to their overall workload.

Vets will say the same for Veterans Affairs in terms of inefficiency where actual life is at stake in terms of medical care.

[Spectator]

I've posted the FY2019 DOS Visa Report Summary here (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2769-FY2019-DOS-Visa-Report?p=63702#post63702).

The original report showing AOS and Consular approvals can be found here (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport-%20TableV.pdf).

[EB32010]

I've posted the FY2019 DOS Visa Report Summary here (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2769-FY2019-DOS-Visa-Report?p=63702#post63702).

The original report showing AOS and Consular approvals can be found here (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport-%20TableV.pdf).
This is awesome Spec. Thank you for putting this together. I have one Q. How come EB1-India got 9000 visas when EB1 ROW was not current in FY2019? How come EB1 India got this much spillover?

[swaugh]

I've posted the FY2019 DOS Visa Report Summary here (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2769-FY2019-DOS-Visa-Report?p=63702#post63702).

The original report showing AOS and Consular approvals can be found here (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport-%20TableV.pdf).

Thank you for the information.

[jimmys]

I've posted the FY2019 DOS Visa Report Summary here (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2769-FY2019-DOS-Visa-Report?p=63702#post63702).

The original report showing AOS and Consular approvals can be found here (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport-%20TableV.pdf).

Thanks Spec. How EB1-India and EB-3 India managed to get more than 7% where their respective ROW dates had retrogressed (EB3 ROW only partially,though)?

[YTeleven]

Dates moving to July 1,2009 doesn't mean all the applicants before that date were approved. If you look at the CP numbers, it's still going strong with 2008 or prior PDs. And, also we don't know if EB-3 India received 6K for FY 19 or will receive 6K for FY 20. We don't know how many are still left in 2008 or prior. There are a lot of unknowns at this point of time. Given the fact EB-3 ROW already fallen to backlog for this FY, it's very hard for EB-3 to go anywhere.

Now, its official that EB3India received ONLY 5K for FY2019. My projection for FY2020 is 7K for EB3India in spite of EB3ROW retrogression(Please don't ask HOW and WHY).
We will only know how accurate is this projection after 1 year from now when FY2020 VISA Stats gets released.

[4WatItsWorth]

Now, its official that EB3India received ONLY 5K for FY2019. My projection for FY2020 is 7K for EB3India in spite of EB3ROW retrogression(Please don't ask HOW and WHY).
We will only know how accurate is this projection after 1 year from now when FY2020 VISA Stats gets released.With EB2-I and EB3-I so much intermingled due to upward / downward porting, what does this mean in terms for date movement, though?

[GCdreamz]

I've posted the FY2019 DOS Visa Report Summary here (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2769-FY2019-DOS-Visa-Report?p=63702#post63702).

The original report showing AOS and Consular approvals can be found here (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport-%20TableV.pdf).

Hi Spec,

How come EB2 & EB3 China got Spill Over? When India is more retrogressed than China, shouldn't India get more Visas?

In case of Philippines, I understand that CO allocates SO by taking Family Based and Employment Based into Account but China is not same as Philippines right?

Also, do you know which category these low wage jobs come under? Eb2 or EB3?

https://www.myvisajobs.com/Vietnam-PERM19CT.htm
https://www.myvisajobs.com/South-Korea-PERM19CT.htm

[YTeleven]

Hi Spec,

How come EB2 & EB3 China got Spill Over? When India is more retrogressed than China, shouldn't India get more Visas?

In case of Philippines, I understand that CO allocates SO by taking Family Based and Employment Based into Account but China is not same as Philippines right?

Also, do you know which category these low wage jobs come under? Eb2 or EB3?

https://www.myvisajobs.com/Vietnam-PERM19CT.htm
https://www.myvisajobs.com/South-Korea-PERM19CT.htm

These are mostly EB3-ROW Unskilled category PERMS.
These were increased 4 folds in last 5 years.
This is another reason why we are seeing the EB3-ROW retrogression.
I predict this retrogression will be there at least for another year.

[newsletter1978]

Gurus, it has been a frustrating year for EB2I with dates hardly moving. Do you think EB2I dates will move in last quarter may be reach filing date July 1? or cross July?

[lville]

Gurus, it has been a frustrating year for EB2I with dates hardly moving. Do you think EB2I dates will move in last quarter may be reach filing date July 1? or cross July?

For last 2 quarters before each quarter began they gave projections on how dates will move. I'm guessing may be in April Bulletin they will give another projection on movement for next quarter for each category.

For eg In Oct bulletin they said EB2I will move by 1 week and we noticed EB2I moved by 1 day, 3 days and 3 days in Nov, Dec and Jan. ALso in Jan bulletin they said like movement for EB2I will be by 1 week and so far EB2I has moved by 1 day, 3 days and most likely it will move by 3 days in April Bulletin bringing EB2I to May 25, 2009. Looks like May 23 and 24 were Sat and SUN. May 25 2009 was Holiday too. SO basically only people from May 22, 2009 will be current next bulletin.

Although they mention it will be monthly movement but we have seen what they say moved for that quarter.

IDK when will July 1 be current. I'm just Sensei as per q, may be other gurus will help you understand when ur date will be current.

[srimurthy]

I've posted the FY2019 DOS Visa Report Summary here (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2769-FY2019-DOS-Visa-Report?p=63702#post63702).

The original report showing AOS and Consular approvals can be found here (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2019AnnualReport/FY19AnnualReport-%20TableV.pdf).

Spec - how come China, South Korea EB2 allotments got more than 2800 (From the CP and AOS), when EB2 India had the most backlogged?

[newsletter1978]

Corona Virus - Do you think Corona Virus will have an impact on visa movement? Like ROW demand slows down, EB2I or EB3I get more spillover?

[idliman]

Corona Virus - Do you think Corona Virus will have an impact on visa movement? Like ROW demand slows down, EB2I or EB3I get more spillover?
You forgot to ask about Nigeria travel ban and Public charge rule. These in combination with COVID19 will have some effect on FB visas mostly. I think CP will see it first. AOS applicants are already in the system. So that takes time. No sure about EB visas.

The Muslim ban countries along with Nigeria took about 10K FB visas last year (source Aljazeera). So most of the missing demand might be absorbed by other ROW countries.

[rocketfast]

You forgot to ask about Nigeria travel ban and Public charge rule. These in combination with COVID19 will have some effect on FB visas mostly. I think CP will see it first. AOS applicants are already in the system. So that takes time. No sure about EB visas.

The Muslim ban countries along with Nigeria took about 10K FB visas last year (source Aljazeera). So most of the missing demand might be absorbed by other ROW countries.

My understanding of the public charge rule is that it only applies for AOS applicants and does not apply for Consular processing. There are very few family AOS applicants.

[jimmys]

My understanding of the public charge rule is that it only applies for AOS applicants and does not apply for Consular processing. There are very few family AOS applicants.



There's only a minimal disturbance expected in numerical limitations categories like FB and EB. It may have great impact in Immediate Relatives category but they are not constrained by numerical limitations. So, in all, the benefits to EB category is minimal if any.

[EB22010Dec]

Can I ask why ?

[moon80]

You will be surprised.
Read this report which is from last year when public charge rule was not so strong.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/06/visa-denials-poor-mexicans-trump-1637094
In 2018 (when USCIS sent memo for CP for public charge..no change for AOS) see the denials due to public charge from just 3 countries : India 1254, Pakistan 1246, Bangladesh 1502
Most of them must be from immediate family based visa so not a direct impact.
But from this year I think you will see lot more denials due to public charge.

[texas_]

When Public charge denials increase do the spill those visas into Employment based Visa categories?

[monsieur]

When Public charge denials increase do the spill those visas into Employment based Visa categories?

If that person applied under FB category then any unused number will be spilled into EB.

[srimurthy]

When Public charge denials increase do the spill those visas into Employment based Visa categories?
Yes they will increase the allocation next year. But benefit to EB2I or EB3I will be minimal based on the arbitrary allocation of over 7% to China and ROW when the most backlogged country is India and we have thousands who already filed 485 and still did not get greened and thousands more waiting even before 2015 dates to submit 485 applications.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Not sure if someone has made this point, but can you imagine the thousands of people who have waited 10+ yrs who have to go repeatedly for H1 stamping in India and other consulates? We and the State Dept. have to keep gathering and processing the same paperwork over and over and over again, especially many who have been with the same employer a decade or more with no changes in their situation. Such a colossal waste of money and human effort all around... just absurd. Last year when I went for stamping, there was this really young visa officer and he was younger than me and he looked at my file and just literally dropped his jaw and asked me, "You are saying you have been in the US for close to 20 years out of your 40 and still have to keep renewing visas? I am not even going to ask you any questions". And I kid you not, he literally did not even ask me a single question and approved it.

[qesehmk]

Not sure if someone has made this point, but can you imagine the thousands of people who have waited 10+ yrs who have to go repeatedly for H1 stamping in India and other consulates? We and the State Dept. have to keep gathering and processing the same paperwork over and over and over again, especially many who have been with the same employer a decade or more with no changes in their situation. Such a colossal waste of money and human effort all around... just absurd.
That is the cost. But it is not as random as you may think. There are special interests who like immigration status quo.

[newsletter1978]

If Corona Virus does not wipe out the human population, i still think this will slow down ROW demand and benefit EB2I and EB3I.

[qesehmk]

If Corona Virus does not wipe out the human population, i still think this will slow down ROW demand and benefit EB2I and EB3I.

If Trump is right that heat kills the virus then Sahara desert will become the hottest property market. Literally :)

[monsieur]

If Trump is right that heat kills the virus then Sahara desert will become the hottest property market. Literally :)

This is prevalent theory within medical field and heard same from couple of my RNx buddies who says any virus like flu gets weaker when summer season arrives. Mortality rate of CoVid-19 is 2% compared to Flu which has 0.1% They are not sure whether CoVid-19 will behave same way or not so uncertainties....

[qesehmk]

This is prevalent theory within medical field and heard same from couple of my RNx buddies who says any virus like flu gets weaker when summer season arrives. Mortality rate of CoVid-19 is 2% compared to Flu which has 0.1% They are not sure whether CoVid-19 will behave same way or not so uncertainties....
I think that's generally true. Whether it is true with CoVid-19 is yet to be seen. Particularly if this an engineered virus (which is what I suspect given how it was a hush hush operation) then we all going to be royally screwed.

[jimmys]

This is prevalent theory within medical field and heard same from couple of my RNx buddies who says any virus like flu gets weaker when summer season arrives. Mortality rate of CoVid-19 is 2% compared to Flu which has 0.1% They are not sure whether CoVid-19 will behave same way or not so uncertainties....

There maybe some truth to it. Singapore reported its first case about 3 weeks ago. But, their cases yet to cross 100. It's 90/75 weather for them. Actually, when Singapore reported its first case, people feared it's going to be worse since Singapore mostly relied on public transit. But, it's not that severe when you compare Tehran (60/45F weather) and Italy (60/45F or less weather).

Remains to be seen that's the case in US as well. We've had around 80F last few days here. But it's going to get little cooler next week.:rolleyes:

[mahendra]

Considering, monthly immigrant visa issuance statistics of Jan-2020, total EB3-I Consular Processing so far in FY 2020 is 612

[texas_]

I am not sure how 612 for FY2020 compare to FY2019, Is this number considered too high ?

[jimmys]

I am not sure how 612 for FY2020 compare to FY2019, Is this number considered too high ?

It's about the same. FY 19 603 vs FY 20 612. They keep coming. All these were before Jan 1,2009. No one knows how many CP cases are pending still. It looks really scary to see all these demand for EB-3 India CP.

FY 20 CP numbers are on track to match FY 19 numbers. Unless EB3-India is assigned more than the regular quota, it's not going anywhere this FY 20.

[ferric]

It's about the same. FY 19 603 vs FY 20 612. They keep coming. All these were before Jan 1,2009. No one knows how many CP cases are pending still. It looks really scary to see all these demand for EB-3 India CP.

FY 20 CP numbers are on track to match FY 19 numbers. Unless EB3-India is assigned more than the regular quota, it's not going anywhere this FY 20.

This link makes it sound like there’s 20000+
CP immigrant visa applications pending in EB3-I before 11/2010. No idea if it’s true.

https://immigrationroad.com/green-card-tracker/immigrant-visa-consular-processing-inventory-nvc.php

[monsieur]

This link makes it sound like there’s 20000+
CP immigrant visa applications pending in EB3-I before 11/2010. No idea if it’s true.

https://immigrationroad.com/green-card-tracker/immigrant-visa-consular-processing-inventory-nvc.php


Such report just lists that how many folks are awaiting GC via CP. Below is latest report from 2019, which lists India EB2 at 15k+ and EB3 at 20k+. If my knowledge is correct about CP process then what happens is post I-140 approval your application is sent to NVC which wait for dates to be current before your application is sent to consulate for Interview. This report list that particular wait-list which can be from 2009 till Nov 1st 2019. Now how this number are distributed that I have no idea. May be its even or top heavy i.e more in 2010s or bottom heavy i.e in past few yrs.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2019.pdf

For me good data point is I-140 approval as both Eb2 and eb3 needs that approval. As per that report between 2008-2010, 48K I-140 were approved (2009+2010+ half of 2011) between Eb2 and Eb3. Lets round this up to 40K with assumption that duplicates with job change, both spouses in line resulting in 8k filing. If multiplier of 2.5 is applied then we are looking at 100K GC to clear till 2010.

2008 + half of 2009 is cleared from EB2 (approx 33k visa), EB3 (my guess says need 24k visa) is still going thru as dates were moved in past 1-1.5 years. We are in long haul to clear dates till 2010 for both eb2 and eb3

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Employment-based/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf

PS: Not an expert, just taking a logical guess here in absence of other data.

[mahendra]

It's about the same. FY 19 603 vs FY 20 612. They keep coming. All these were before Jan 1,2009. No one knows how many CP cases are pending still. It looks really scary to see all these demand for EB-3 India CP.

FY 20 CP numbers are on track to match FY 19 numbers. Unless EB3-India is assigned more than the regular quota, it's not going anywhere this FY 20.

EB3-I CP issuance for FY 2019 was 1676.
For FY 2020, issuance is occuring at the same rate.
If there is no spillover, then CP may consume approx 60% (~1700) of allocated numbers for FY 2020

[texas_]

Do Anyone has idea how the current Perm approval trend is compare to last year around the same time frame?

I used to check it on www.permchecker.com but it appears the data isn't updated since September 2019

Thanks

[bvsamrat]

Thanks all and specially Q for keeping this site active and separate from biased opinions. Still keeping track on various issues
Finally Became US citizen in February month. GC in September 2014. Minneapolis, application to citizenship finished in about 7 months

[qesehmk]

Thanks all and specially Q for keeping this site active and separate from biased opinions. Still keeping track on various issues
Finally Became US citizen in February month. GC in September 2014. Minneapolis, application to citizenship finished in about 7 months
Wow. Time flies. Many congratulations. I haven't yet summoned the courage to give up my Indian Passport. But I am getting there!! I am a minority in my house.

[tendlya]

April Bulletin out:
EB1I 01MAY15
EB2I 25MAY09
EB3I 22JAN09

[jimmys]

April Bulletin out:
EB1I 01MAY15
EB2I 25MAY09
EB3I 22JAN09

EB-3 India is stagnant because of consistently high CP numbers month after month. With no SO from EB-3 ROW, this is not going anywhere.

[NJMavarick]

I have stopped following the VB knowing there will be no movement! Depressing to say the least..

[IamGSN]

One thing is clear from Filing dates which hasn't changed since it was imposed, there is not much demand/filers left for EB2-I (7/1/09) and EB3-I (2/1/2010).

[AceMan]

EB-3 India is stagnant because of consistently high CP numbers month after month. With no SO from EB-3 ROW, this is not going anywhere.

And Eb2I moved 3 days. Interesting part is those 3 days were Saturday, Sunday and Memorial Day.

[kb2013]

I have stopped following the VB knowing there will be no movement! Depressing to say the least..

< >

[mahendra]

US Missions in India have cancelled all immigrant and non-immigrant visa appointments from Monday, March 16 onward until further notice.

[Blue_fairy]

What impact, if any, would COVID-19 have on EB2 date movement. Not being insensitive but just curious.

[idliman]

What impact, if any, would COVID-19 have on EB2 date movement. Not being insensitive but just curious. I believe EB3I CP numbers were about 1600 last year. Assuming that the virus shuts down CP for two months, we might see ([1600/12]*2 = 267) visas for AOS EB3I. Guesstimate. How it is going to affect overall demands? No idea. Situation is still fluid.

[rabp77]

I believe EB3I CP numbers were about 1600 last year. Assuming that the virus shuts down CP for two months, we might see ([1600/12]*2 = 267) visas for AOS EB3I. Guesstimate. How it is going to affect overall demands? No idea. Situation is still fluid.

you are right. the main impact will be ROW CP, thats not utlized, and spills over to EB3 india. Also another likely impact will be Family based petitions, at go unused till september, and get added to EB for next year. Like everything else, this is difficult to predict, and only time will give the final answer.

[rabp77]

ROW proably gets around 25-30 K visas..so if 10% of that goes unutilized, that would mean 2.5K-3K additional visas for india in each category, which could move the needle a bit.

[mar2010er]

I was curious about it too. I think there will be some impact of it directly and indirectly. There will be benefit of lower CP filing. Moreover, if this brings in recession, then likely reduce number of cases in EB1C category benefiting EB2 and EB3I. This will benefit for those who will weather the storm! Good luck to all.

[NJMavarick]

The US consulates / embassies will be closed for a couple of months with no new visas being issued. We are almost at the very start of recession or perhaps already in one. There is also the family spillover that would need to be applied. How will this impact the EB2 / EB3 dates going forward? Can the gurus pitch in with their 0.02 cents?

[idliman]

Carl Shusterman's site published a Charlie update dated 20MAR2020.
EB1: The longer the Guangzhou, China post remains closed EB-5 numbers will fall up to EB1-I. There are 18,000 EB1-I already interviewed and ready to get visa numbers.
EB2: EB2 ROW remains current and he earlier predicted a PD around June 2020. Based on the anticipated slowdown in processing due to the coronavirus, Charlie expects that might not occur until late summer, if at all.
EB3: EB-3 number usage in FY20 has been robust, which caused the category to retrogress. As such, this category has already used a significant amount of its fiscal year allocation.
Shusterman's website link (https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/)

[AceMan]

The US consulates / embassies will be closed for a couple of months with no new visas being issued. We are almost at the very start of recession or perhaps already in one. There is also the family spillover that would need to be applied. How will this impact the EB2 / EB3 dates going forward? Can the gurus pitch in with their 0.02 cents?

I would think it is little too early to check the options with the country reeling with cases increase daily. We are now the 3rd highest in the world with this pandemic.

[jimmys]

Anyone noticed that EB2ROW cases are getting approved without interviews? I think any chance of getting horizontal spillover is getting reduced.

[incredible]

Mine is NBC. It will be another few months before they get approved.

I think the NSC behavior seems to be inconsistent. We had ours filed in the first week of Jan and were approved by third week of Feb and received documents.

[rabp77]

Anyone noticed that EB2ROW cases are getting approved without interviews? I think any chance of getting horizontal spillover is getting reduced.

that sounds strange. Do you know any case that was approved without interview? that would certainly a big departure from the standard followed for 3-4 years now

[rabp77]

Anyone noticed that EB2ROW cases are getting approved without interviews? I think any chance of getting horizontal spillover is getting reduced.

the only possible cases that could be approved w/o interview are the once for which I485 was submitted before March 6, 2017. For EB2, this should only be possible only for India and China. For EB3 also, this should practically only happen for india and china, as the FAD for all other countries has moved beyond this point a few times in the past.

Do you see any approval without interview for i-485 filed after March 6, 2017 ?

[qesehmk]

Folks - don't confuse departmental rules regulations and policies as laws. For general public regulations are same as laws. But the concerned department can bypass its own rules/ regulations / policies any time. So if they don't want to interview ROW - it is within their power to do so.

The only way YOU can challenge that is if a rule / regulation / policy goes against a law passed by congress or the constitution.

In nutshell - I have been saying this for very long time. There is a clear historical bias in how DoS / DHS has prioritized backlogs from all other countries over EB-IC. They have consistently done it at 485 / I-140 / Labor / CP level (in that order as I have seen it).

The only answer to this discrimination is removal of country caps.

[lville]

the only possible cases that could be approved w/o interview are the once for which I485 was submitted before March 6, 2017. For EB2, this should only be possible only for India and China. For EB3 also, this should practically only happen for india and china, as the FAD for all other countries has moved beyond this point a few times in the past.

Do you see any approval without interview for i-485 filed after March 6, 2017 ?

There are couple cases on Trackitt, their interview was cancelled and after few days their cards got approved. My interview got cancelled however my PD becomes current tomorrow on April 01, 2020. I was really hoping that I'll be lucky one too but Q's comments about how they are doing it for EB2 ROW puts damper on my spirits. Hope that's not the case and mine gets approved without interview too.

My PD is EB2-I May 22, 2009
Interview was scheduled for March 23, 2009
Interview cancelled on March 18, 2009

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If 3.3 million people have filed for unemployment, logically how will any new PERMS get approved in the next 6-9 months? How will that potentially affect the PD movement for EB3/EB2I?

[qesehmk]

Q's comments about how they are doing it for EB2 ROW puts damper on my spirits.
Actually my comments while generally true - in this specific case - i am having a rethink. It is likely that the interviews were cancelled due to COVID situation. And so you too may get greened without an interview (which was actually the norm until very recently). All the best!

[monsieur]

If 3.3 million people have filed for unemployment, logically how will any new PERMS get approved in the next 6-9 months? How will that potentially affect the PD movement for EB3/EB2I?

What I have been told in past is that, Company has to show that there is no layoff for specific job function for which they are filing perm and sponsoring GC. i.e replacing citizen with Visa guy. Keeping this in mind then yes if financial analyst / program mgr perm will not go thru if there is layoff for those position. If layoff is strictly a criteria then HR intensive companies likes of Amazon, Walmart, Home Depot, Marriott will never be able to file for GC. With current administration, I don't know if this will be the case or not.

My understanding with 3.3 million number is that its skewed towards blue collar labor. Soon white collar folks will get impacted too as companies bottom line will be impacted with economic shutdown.

Not to scare anyone, my logic says worst is yet to come based on stimulus pkg size. Great Recession got ~$800B TARP bill and this one already has ~$2.2T pkg and talks of Rd 4 underway around April end so buckle up, Folks who has big picture data are looking seeing sign of meltdown and pumping $$ into economy. So it will be bumpy ride and if I am still in Q after recession then yes plenty of spillover to EB2/3-I categories.

Disclaimer - Just my rambling, not a lawyer but pretend to be one on interweb. Not good with prediction otherwise would have won MegaMillion by now. Take these with lump of salt....

[jimmys]

Anyone noticed that EB2ROW cases are getting approved without interviews? I think any chance of getting horizontal spillover is getting reduced.

It has been happening with some more cases now. Trackitt has a separate thread tracking all those cases. DoS/USCIS are not worried about India/China backlogs. Even if there's a recession, I don't hold any hopes for India/China cases. :(

[lville]

It has been happening with some more cases now. Trackitt has a separate thread tracking all those cases. DoS/USCIS are not worried about India/China backlogs. Even if there's a recession, I don't hold any hopes for India/China cases. :(

One of the Indian fellow just got his GC without interview on trackitt. His name is Dushyant.

So I don't think it is biased as far as I can tell. But since yesterday there's not much activity about people getting interview waivers.

BTW my date is current this month. Who should I call ? USCIS main office (NBC) or USCIS field office ? Does field office have phone numbers ? or are we supposed to call the main line 1-800 ? I don't want to miss this time.

[NJMavarick]

Gurus - With the consulates being closed as well as companies not filing I-485s, one thing is certain that we will have a huge spillover from FB. Add to that the 16K spillover from last year.

In such a scenario, where do you see the EB3 / EB2 India dates ending up? Of course, this is all subject to the spill overs being applied and visas not being wasted. 3 months of visas will constitute a big number and maybe more if this lasts even further.

[abcx13]

It has been happening with some more cases now. Trackitt has a separate thread tracking all those cases. DoS/USCIS are not worried about India/China backlogs. Even if there's a recession, I don't hold any hopes for India/China cases. :(

I don't know about that... I see the following different categories that could help people in EB2-I backlogs:

1) The people in the EB2-I backlog reduce as some people lose their jobs and are forced to abandon their application
2) Similarly, some ROW folks might be forced to abandon their application if their employer doesn't need them anymore
3) Employers become more hesitant in sponsoring GCs for existing ROW H1Bs already in the US - reduces the additions to the pipeline
4) Fewer people from the ROW come to the US on H1Bs or directly on EB GCs - also reducing the future additions to the pipeline
5) Any reductions in CP EB1-C or FB cases from the consulates being closed and those cases being abandoned

If we are entering a recession, then there has to be a reduction in the number of people with valid immigration petitions?

I wasn't in the queue in 2009 so don't know what happened then, but maybe some of the experts can chime in.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I don't know about that... I see the following different categories that could help people in EB2-I backlogs:

1) The people in the EB2-I backlog reduce as some people lose their jobs and are forced to abandon their application
2) Similarly, some ROW folks might be forced to abandon their application if their employer doesn't need them anymore
3) Employers become more hesitant in sponsoring GCs for existing ROW H1Bs already in the US - reduces the additions to the pipeline
4) Fewer people from the ROW come to the US on H1Bs or directly on EB GCs - also reducing the future additions to the pipeline
5) Any reductions in CP EB1-C or FB cases from the consulates being closed and those cases being abandoned

If we are entering a recession, then there has to be a reduction in the number of people with valid immigration petitions?

I wasn't in the queue in 2009 so don't know what happened then, but maybe some of the experts can chime in.

I have been in the queue since 2010 and there have been a lot of prognostications as to how the Oct-2008 through 2009 recession would put a massive dent in the green card demand for that year. Diddly squat has happened. The dates were stuck in 2008 for years and now in 2009. It's just rinse and repeat. Everyone will get their hopes up now that there will be no demand, nothing is likely to happen. As long as these evil people like Stephen Miller are pulling the immigration puppet strings from behind the stage, nothing will move forward. He is probably rubbing his hands together in glee and thinking of various schemes to utilize the current crisis to further strangle all types of immigration by saying the magic word: CORONAVIRUS!!!

[EB22010Dec]

So how do you think backlog cleared till 2009 ? Did you not see the spillover years ?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Admittedly my response is an emotional one, rather than data driven. Maybe someone else can crunch the numbers and estimate how the spillover will affect calculations. The only reason for my pessimism is that unavailability of accurate data as to how many people are actually in line and the propensity of the current admin to make sure all forms of immigration is completely halted and then boast about it in a few months to win another election.

[srimurthy]

Admittedly my response is an emotional one, rather than data driven. Maybe someone else can crunch the numbers and estimate how the spillover will affect calculations. The only reason for my pessimism is that unavailability of accurate data as to how many people are actually in line and the propensity of the current admin to make sure all forms of immigration is completely halted and then boast about it in a few months to win another election.

Dates moved till 2008 for EB2 and EB3 because of the spillovers from EB1 and EB2ROW earlier. Now most of that spillover is consumed by EB1 as there was a clarification for manager positions and intra company transfers and filings increase from 2012 onwards for those. Right now until country cap removal happens there is no chance to get spillover in the same range of 15 to 20K for EB2I,C or EB3I,C to clear any backlogs.

[NJMavarick]

One big difference between the 2008/2009 recession to the current one is that the consulates were still functioning and FB visas were being utilized. Its close to 4 weeks and no FB visas are being consumed. If this goes on for a few weeks which it will, we are easily talking about ~40K spillover of FB visas. Add to that the under utilization of EB visas for ROW countries and 16K FB spillover from last year.

How and when the spillover gets applied is a different conversation all together...

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

One big difference between the 2008/2009 recession to the current one is that the consulates were still functioning and FB visas were being utilized. Its close to 4 weeks and no FB visas are being consumed. If this goes on for a few weeks which it will, we are easily talking about ~40K spillover of FB visas. Add to that the under utilization of EB visas for ROW countries and 16K FB spillover from last year.

How and when the spillover gets applied is a different conversation all together...

Those are excellent points! Are there any legal avenues to sue DoS/USCIS and force them to recapture those numbers if they don't appropriately re-allocate any left over visas from FB to other classifications?

[rocketfast]

One big difference between the 2008/2009 recession to the current one is that the consulates were still functioning and FB visas were being utilized. Its close to 4 weeks and no FB visas are being consumed. If this goes on for a few weeks which it will, we are easily talking about ~40K spillover of FB visas. Add to that the under utilization of EB visas for ROW countries and 16K FB spillover from last year.

How and when the spillover gets applied is a different conversation all together...

Yup. This is pretty much our best chance (and there have been a lot of false hopes over the last few years). A month's total shutdown of worldwide consulates results in a maximum of 18833 unused FB visas. Visa processing offices are likely to be shutdown atleast till May end (for a total of 3 month shutdown). Even if we get laid off, and have to return back to India, we can always come back if the numbers move fast.

On the worse case side, for all we know (based on our terrible luck so far), a law may get passed which will reuse unused FB visas next year.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Yup. This is pretty much our best chance (and there have been a lot of false hopes over the last few years). A month's total shutdown of worldwide consulates results in a maximum of 18833 unused FB visas. Visa processing offices are likely to be shutdown atleast till May end (for a total of 3 month shutdown). Even if we get laid off, and have to return back to India, we can always come back if the numbers move fast.

On the worse case side, for all we know (based on our terrible luck so far), a law may get passed which will reuse unused FB visas next year.

You can bet the people in the FB queue are already thinking of lobbying efforts to do just that.

[NJMavarick]

Those are excellent points! Are there any legal avenues to sue DoS/USCIS and force them to recapture those numbers if they don't appropriately re-allocate any left over visas from FB to other classifications?

I do not think there is an option to sue but EB1-I stands to benefit immensely. I would suggest to read the below thread on Trackitt.

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/2066834299/covid-19-immigration-impact/page/1

Initially, I got my hopes high but after reading up..it seems EB2 / EB3 will not gain enough to move the dates beyond 6 months (happy to be wrong)

[vckomara]

My PD is in September 2009. Hope it moves at least 3-4 months by October 2020 from where it is now. Sure hope it will move past May 2010 so that some folks who are in really long wait even for EAD will finally get their EAD's.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I do not think there is an option to sue but EB1-I stands to benefit immensely. I would suggest to read the below thread on Trackitt.

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discussion-forums/i485-eb/2066834299/covid-19-immigration-impact/page/1

Initially, I got my hopes high but after reading up..it seems EB2 / EB3 will not gain enough to move the dates beyond 6 months (happy to be wrong)

Yeah, that's definitely a thread with good analysis compared to the otherwise toxic sludge over there.

[alpharomeo]

Hello,

Was checking the 140 approvals , and I only see 6674 i 140 petitions approvals for EB2 India, any thoughts around why arent the dates arent moving beyond 2009?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Employment-based/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf

[monsieur]

Hello,

Was checking the 140 approvals , and I only see 6674 i 140 petitions approvals for EB2 India, any thoughts around why arent the dates arent moving beyond 2009?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Employment-based/I140_by_class_country_FY09_19.pdf

Priority dates is based on LCA and not I-140 approval. Keeping that in mind, many I-140 approval from 2010 will have priority date of 2009. If we consider 50-50 split i.e 6 month trailing I would say ~3k out of 6k from 2009 and ~8k out of 15k from 2010 approved I-140 should have 2009 priority date. So total we are looking at will be 11K and with multiple fact of 2, 22K GC numbers are needed just to clear 2009.

[alpharomeo]

That makes sense now, thanks for the response ! My priority date is in May 2010...the wait seems endless

[texas_]

How is the Perm approval trend looks like? I assume that would be at minimal

[Blue_fairy]

https://www.visalawyerblog.com/covid-19-update-are-green-card-interviews-being-waived/

[Spectator]

I've updated data in FACTS AND DATA (Registration Required to Read) PERM/Labor Data (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) with the PERM figures for Q1 & Q2 FY2020.

[texas_]

Hi Spec,

I can't view it however I logged in with my registered user id

Can someone please guide?

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

I can't view it however I logged in with my registered user id

Can someone please guide?texas,

Sorry to hear that.

It works fine for me.

I think only Q can fix any permissions problems, if that is what's causing the problem.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://www.cato.org/publications/immigration-research-policy-brief/backlog-skilled-immigrants-tops-1-million-over

This info is not new but it's a well presented summary article with detailed numbers.

[qesehmk]

I've updated data in FACTS AND DATA (Registration Required to Read) PERM/Labor Data (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) with the PERM figures for Q1 & Q2 FY2020.
Spec - even i can't find it. What's the link to the thread?

[19YRSNOGC]

looks like he updated the images ,atleast thats what i see

[monsieur]

Hi Spec,

I can't view it however I logged in with my registered user id

Can someone please guide?

This is the link - https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/16-Labor-Certification-(PERM)

its under live discussion --> Labor Certification (Perm)

[qesehmk]

I've updated data in FACTS AND DATA (Registration Required to Read) PERM/Labor Data (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) with the PERM figures for Q1 & Q2 FY2020.
Hmm ... somehow it went under live discussion. If you would like to move it to the link above and can't do it, let me know. I will be happy to do it.

[qesehmk]

Spec - on a very different note .... have you noticed Q anonymous? I freaked out the first time I noticed it. They stole my name!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I have no question in my mind that our child will have to sponsor our green card when she turns 21.

[Spectator]

Hmm ... somehow it went under live discussion. If you would like to move it to the link above and can't do it, let me know. I will be happy to do it.Q,

There are two distinct sets of post(s).

The post under Live Discussion (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/16-Labor-Certification-(PERM)) is correct. It gives a high level view of the figures for FY2020 Q1 & Q2 only. This area has always been freely viewable without signing in (and I hope it remains so).

The posts under FACTS-AND-DATA-(Registration-Required-to-Read) (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) are the detailed figures of all PERM data.

I hope this clarifies things.

PS QAnon is the antithesis of what I hope this site stands for!!!

[qesehmk]

Thanks for updating the numbers Spec and Q for your help as always!!

You are welcome texas_ .... but I only manage the site and mediate in the forum (sometimes). Spec is our Data Master and deserves all credit.

[qesehmk]

Q,

There are two distinct sets of post(s).

The post under Live Discussion (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/16-Labor-Certification-(PERM)) is correct. It gives a high level view of the figures for FY2020 Q1 & Q2 only. This area has always been freely viewable without signing in (and I hope it remains so).

The posts under FACTS-AND-DATA-(Registration-Required-to-Read) (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) are the detailed figures of all PERM data.

I hope this clarifies things.

PS QAnon is the antithesis of what I hope this site stands for!!!

Thanks Spec. Let's leave it as is. Why fix something that ain't broken!

As per QAnon -- yes indeed we are so not like Qanon. This site aims to promote clarity about immigration in a free manner. So anybody is welcome to publish anything and we won't put restrictions on it.

[Immigo]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252418369170501639 :

In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens, I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States!

Devil will be in the details....

[qesehmk]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1252418369170501639 :

In light of the attack from the Invisible Enemy, as well as the need to protect the jobs of our GREAT American Citizens, I will be signing an Executive Order to temporarily suspend immigration into the United States!

Devil will be in the details....

I have a feeling that this unfortunate decision could have positive consequences for backlogged candidates. That will be the silver lining ..

[nbk1976]

I have a feeling that this unfortunate decision could have positive consequences for backlogged candidates. That will be the silver lining ..

How does it affect us as immigrants, many of us are already living here awaiting adjustment of status? Are they going to ask us to leave?

[qesehmk]

How does it affect us as immigrants, many of us are already living here awaiting adjustment of status? Are they going to ask us to leave? I think the objective is to not admit outside immigrants. If thats true they can divert counselor processing numbers to backlogged candidates. That's about 2/3rd years worth numbers i.e. 14K approximately. Lets see.

[Blue_fairy]

Well, nothing stops the administration from also saying that they will not provision GCs until the suspension is lifted.

[qesehmk]

Well, nothing stops the administration from also saying that they will not provision GCs until the suspension is lifted.
That too is likely. However given the elections and how Indians helped Trump last time, he might be inclined to divert CP visas to AOS. He only has to gain by doing that. He already made his base happy.

[EB22010Dec]

That too is likely. However given the elections and how Indians helped Trump last time, he might be inclined to divert CP visas to AOS. He only has to gain by doing that. He already made his base happy.

No may bulletin even today !!!!

[bloddy1]

That too is likely. However given the elections and how Indians helped Trump last time, he might be inclined to divert CP visas to AOS. He only has to gain by doing that. He already made his base happy.

We have had this potential gains in the past as well, but how realistic is the backlog allocation going to be available for allocation to EB2/3 India?

Thanks

[qesehmk]

We have had this potential gains in the past as well, but how realistic is the backlog allocation going to be available for allocation to EB2/3 India?

Thanks
Shadab

The numbers will be there. But nobody can predict policy. Will the administration allow those numbers to be allocated to EB-India backlog? I do not know.

[NJMavarick]

Considering EB2ROW is current, will the ~4.5K FB spillover (28.6% of 16K) be given to EB2I? At this point, either visas will get wasted this year or there could be a reasonable horizontal spill over for EB2 available.

[monsieur]

He is backing off; no new GC will be issued but guest worker visa will not be touched

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/us/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-national&variant=show&region=MID_MAIN_CONTENT&context=storyline_updates_national#link-57117970

folks who are current, wait continues.

folks on h1 - renewal / new business as usual

[professor]

He is backing off; no new GC will be issued but guest worker visa will not be touched

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/21/us/coronavirus-live-news-updates.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-coronavirus-national&variant=show&region=MID_MAIN_CONTENT&context=storyline_updates_national#link-57117970

folks who are current, wait continues.

folks on h1 - renewal / new business as usual

For now at least... https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-immigration-order-to-last-30-90-days-apply-to-permanent-immigrants-official/ar-BB1305Pc

[abcx13]

If no new GCs till September let's say then I wonder if the GCs roll over to next year and get applied to the most retrogressed country (ie India)?

Seems kind of stupid to allow H1s but GCs when the latter require you to go through a more difficult PERM process!

[monsieur]

If no new GCs till September let's say then I wonder if the GCs roll over to next year and get applied to the most retrogressed country (ie India)?

Seems kind of stupid to allow H1s but GCs when the latter require you to go through a more difficult PERM process!

As Q said it here - https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=63952&viewfull=1#post63952

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

At times like these, you have to think like Stephen Miller would do. He will basically say freeze any more visa issuance processes until at least end of FY2020 and start afresh for FY2021, no rollover nothing. He has a singular goal of reducing immigration and nothing else. He used to work for Jeff Sessions after all. You just have to see some of Sessions' statements on twitter in the past week or so.

[abcx13]

WSJ article says won’t impact EB immigration.

[harapatta]

Guys, my biggest worry is not the delay in GC , but with the policy change will it impact EAD renewal ?

[rabp77]

WSJ article says won’t impact EB immigration.

yes..i believe you are referring to this one: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/trump-order-would-temporarily-bar-family-members-of-u-s-citizens-foreign-workers-from-immigrating-11587504410

WSJ is probably the most reputed source you can get. But i guess we just need to wait a bit to find out...

[LASHAB]

yes..i believe you are referring to this one: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/trump-order-would-temporarily-bar-family-members-of-u-s-citizens-foreign-workers-from-immigrating-11587504410

WSJ is probably the most reputed source you can get. But i guess we just need to wait a bit to find out...

https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/status/1252647862359535623?s=20
Cyrus Mehta tweeted that INA 212(f) doesnt give him power to prevent filing for extension and AOS.

[harapatta]

https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/status/1252647862359535623?s=20
Cyrus Mehta tweeted that INA 212(f) doesnt give him power to prevent filing for extension and AOS.

This helps in reducing some anxiety.....hope is the best strategy in the current scenario :)

[Blue_fairy]

He is going to stop GCs, halt immigration. By the time courts decide, he will likely have his 60 days. The move is motivated by politics and not based on any desire to be correct in the court of law.

[smuggymba]

He is going to stop GCs, halt immigration. By the time courts decide, he will likely have his 60 days. The move is motivated by politics and not based on any desire to be correct in the court of law.

It's more politics since he wants to rile up his base with the upcoming election. Immigration reduction is what his base loves. His move most likely will be blocked in courts.

I just filed for EAD renewal and if someone tells me my EAD can't be renewed, I'm hiring a lawyer right away.

[aquatican]

The Fox News article claims 'This includes people awarded permanent residence under the diversity lottery, work green cards and chain migration. People who are seeking Green Cards under US Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) are already in the country, so they are not subject to the pause.'

I hope AoS is allowed to procced.



It's more politics since he wants to rile up his base with the upcoming election. Immigration reduction is what his base loves. His move most likely will be blocked in courts.

I just filed for EAD renewal and if someone tells me my EAD can't be renewed, I'm hiring a lawyer right away.

[harinatham14]

EO -->
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspending-entry-immigrants-present-risk-u-s-labor-market-economic-recovery-following-covid-19-outbreak/

[Umesh1209]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspending-entry-immigrants-present-risk-u-s-labor-market-economic-recovery-following-covid-19-outbreak/

Link shared by Greg

[prabakarb]

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspending-entry-immigrants-present-risk-u-s-labor-market-economic-recovery-following-covid-19-outbreak/

Link shared by Greg

This will actually greatly benefit AOS folks here in US in my opinion. Let’s wait for visa bulletin.

[Umesh1209]

Cautious optimism. Q said it well. Visa numbers will be there, will authorities allocate n move the dates is the big question.

[harapatta]

Sec. 2. Scope of Suspension and Limitation on Entry. (a) The suspension and limitation on entry pursuant to section 1 of this proclamation shall apply only to aliens who:

(i) are outside the United States on the effective date of this proclamation;

(ii) do not have an immigrant visa that is valid on the effective date of this proclamation; and

(iii) do not have an official travel document other than a visa (such as a transportation letter, an appropriate boarding foil, or an advance parole document) that is valid on the effective date of this proclamation or issued on any date thereafter that permits him or her to travel to the United States and seek entry or admission.

[suninphx]

Will there be a VB, as CP is halted? may be VB in some special format.

[abcx13]

So my impression is this EO only helps on the margin to the extent that EB2/3-I benefit from horizontal spillover (from ROW) and vertical spillover (from EB1) from lack of CP visas? And that's assuming that when the EO ends and consulates reopen, they don't proccess faster to clear the backlog of CP cases that is building up right now.

I was thinking that unused FB spillover next year might be the bigger help, but that seems to be allocated to all EB categories and countries proportionately, instead of to the most retrogressed countries, so EB-I will only benefit to the extent that ROW doesn't consume the extra visas.

And this line from the EO suggests that we shouldn't be suprised if they somehow try to change the PERM rules: "While some employment-based visas contain a labor certification requirement, because visa issuance happens substantially after the certification is completed, the labor certification process cannot adequately capture the status of the labor market today."

[Blue_fairy]

And notice this too

Sec. 6. Additional Measures. Within 30 days of the effective date of this proclamation, the Secretary of Labor and the Secretary of Homeland Security, in consultation with the Secretary of State, shall review nonimmigrant programs and shall recommend to me other measures appropriate to stimulate the United States economy and ensure the prioritization, hiring, and employment of United States workers.

[jimmys]

FB CP visa usage so far is about 80K. Another 2 months closure of CP, would it be too much to expect ~50K visas to EB category next year? EB1 stands to benefit a lot in FY 21. To some extent, EB2 and EB3 as well.

[Umesh1209]

FB CP visa usage so far is about 80K. Another 2 months closure of CP, would it be too much to expect ~50K visas to EB category next year? EB1 stands to benefit a lot in FY 21. To some extent, EB2 and EB3 as well.
I thought FB spillovers are allocated to all EB categories equally. May I know why EB1 will alone benefit?

[rabp77]

I thought FB spillovers are allocated to all EB categories equally. May I know why EB1 will alone benefit?

yes...thats is correct. Spec has mentioned before that the family spill over adds to entire EB quota, and full number after the spill over gets distributed to each EB category...and the 7 % country quota is applied. So this should benefit all countries & EB categories equally in terms of available numbers. That reduces the direct benefit to india. But with increased spillover from family, the horizontal spill over to india category is also likely to increase (that will probably happen near the end of 2021 aug, sept or October for the family spill over in 2020).

I think the increased horizontal spill over that will happen in end of 2020 and 2021 will likely benefit india more. Thats the reason why EB1 and EB2 are likely to benefit more, because the FAD for ROW is nearly current for these categories, so the horizontal spillover is likely to be larger for EB1 and EB2. EB3 has a FAD date for ROW that was 01JAN17 recently. So its likely there is sufficient applications in EB3 ROW to prevent a large horizontal spillover to india (at least for 2020).

They can easily publish the inventory data to give some clarity on this. But they dont, and make it sound like its a very complicated and difficult problem to make such predictions (which it should not be for anyone with this data, and basic knowledge of spreadsheets, and sql querying)

[eaglenow]

One interesting thing is the country caps are applied across both EB and FB together. This has been used in the past to justify giving more visas to countries like S.Korea in EB and reducing the number for EBI. With this EO, since FB is effectively stopped, will it increase the numbers for EBI?