EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[qesehmk]

Is this a new pattern that we are seeing in the current administration to apply rules in a random fashion ?They will argue its not random. And no this is not new. I have observed this since 2007.

[paramjit74]

Unfortunately the INA specifies the upper limit. It does not say they must allocate the visas. So the administration can take its sweet time to "VET" every single applicant.

Most of the people with May/June 2009 EB2I priority date have applied 485 years ago. They must have already been "VETTED".

[qesehmk]

Most of the people with May/June 2009 EB2I priority date have applied 485 years ago. They must have already been "VETTED".Most would agree.

[mokrisin]

Unfortunately the INA specifies the upper limit. It does not say they must allocate the visas. So the administration can take its sweet time to "VET" every single applicant.

Any reason for such a slow pace on EB2I? Just one day? Any hope for any FB spill over in the near future? I am 6 days away but it seems too far..

[mcmilers]

Any reason for such a slow pace on EB2I? Just one day? Any hope for any FB spill over in the near future? I am 6 days away but it seems too far..

I think it is not the numbers. It is the administration and Miller, but I might be in minority here.

[rocketfast]

EB1-ROW's backlog will likely become a disaster for EB2-I and EB3-I as there will likely be a lot of downgrades which may gobble up any FB spillovers to EB3-ROW/EB2-ROW.

[qesehmk]

EB1-ROW's backlog will likely become a disaster for EB2-I and EB3-I as there will likely be a lot of downgrades which may gobble up any FB spillovers to EB3-ROW/EB2-ROW.That is not quite so easy as they have to file a labor to get into EB2/3

[mokrisin]

Unfortunately the INA specifies the upper limit. It does not say they must allocate the visas. So the administration can take its sweet time to "VET" every single applicant.

Any reason for such a slow pace on EB2I? Just one day? Any hope for any FB spill over in the near future? I am 6 days away but it seems too far..

[rocketfast]

Any reason for such a slow pace on EB2I? Just one day? Any hope for any FB spill over in the near future? I am 6 days away but it seems too far..

Every month EB2-I gets 233 GCs. It is likely that last year not everyone before the PD got their GC. This is the same thing that happened in the beginning of last FY.

Again, the same reason CO predicted that EB3-I will not move till the first quarter is over - which means there are likely 700 GC demand before Jan 1 2009.

[mokrisin]

I agree with the ~700 per quarter. But even with that number of ~200/month should we not expect more movement for EB2I? I thought of atleast 2 to 3 days movement every month


Every month EB2-I gets 233 GCs. It is likely that last year not everyone before the PD got their GC. This is the same thing that happened in the beginning of last FY.

Again, the same reason CO predicted that EB3-I will not move till the first quarter is over - which means there are likely 700 GC demand before Jan 1 2009.

[Raj0687]

EB1-ROW's backlog will likely become a disaster for EB2-I and EB3-I as there will likely be a lot of downgrades which may gobble up any FB spillovers to EB3-ROW/EB2-ROW.

Why would the spill over be applied to ROW, is it not applied to the most backlogged?
how did they split 18K FB spill over in 2013?

[jimmys]

If you see July 18 I-485 inventory, from may only 5k-6k people are left in the inventory, by end of FY 2020, all the 2009 EB2 will be cleared. I assume many people might have been downgraded to Eb3, it definitely clear the 2009 backlog in a year or two.

With only annual quota, the EB2-I will take another few years to move into 2010. Downgrading is not going to accelerate if EB2-I stays ahead of EB3-I.

[jimmys]

EB1-ROW's backlog will likely become a disaster for EB2-I and EB3-I as there will likely be a lot of downgrades which may gobble up any FB spillovers to EB3-ROW/EB2-ROW.

Can they jump queues just like that? Don't they need PERM for EB-2/EB-3 filings?

[rocketfast]

Why would the spill over be applied to ROW, is it not applied to the most backlogged?
how did they split 18K FB spill over in 2013?

It is not applied to the most backlogged is what I gather from this very informative post:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62399&viewfull=1#post62399


Can they jump queues just like that? Don't they need PERM for EB-2/EB-3 filings?

I think EB1-A and EB1-B can do EB2-NIW without PERM. EB1-C need the PERM. Every Tom, Dick and Harry get their PERM approved in EB2/EB3. I don't see why someone that from EB1-C can't. It does add a few months to get it done.

[jimmys]

Every Tom, Dick and Harry get their PERM approved in EB2/EB3. I don't see why someone that from EB1-C can't. It does add a few months to get it done.

Salary requirement. The PERM managerial salaries are much higher, usually. Probably the ROW candidates are promised GC in lieu of more salary.

[Dondraper]

woooh 1 day move in 1 month.

[Dondraper]

but the current admin wants to VET everything to death. I think this is some kind of soft way of stopping immigration.

[Spectator]

Why would the spill over be applied to ROW, is it not applied to the most backlogged?
how did they split 18K FB spill over in 2013?

Because it is not spillover in the sense you mean. Spillover between EB categories is described in INA 203(b) and spillover to 7% limited Countries is described in INA 202(a)(5).

The unused FB visas from the previous FY form part of the determination of the Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants in INA 201(d), which says:


(d) Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants

(1) The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to-

(A) 140,000, plus

(B) the number computed under paragraph (2).

(2)(A) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1992 is zero.

(B) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1993 is the difference (if any) between the worldwide level established under paragraph (1) for the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under section 203(b) of this title during that fiscal year.

(C) The number computed under this paragraph for a subsequent fiscal year is the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 203(a) of this title (relating to family-sponsored immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year.


So, if there were 20,000 unused FB visas from the previous FY, then the Worldwide level for EB would become 140,000 + 20,000 = 160,000

Then INA 203(b) determines that the computed Worldwide level for EB is split:

EB1 - 28.6%
EB2 - 28.6%
EB3 - 28.6%
EB4 - 7.1%
EB5 - 7.1%

Any calculation for the 7% per Country limit is made after the Worldwide levels have been determined.

As for FY2013, this is the document of rough numbers published by DOS. Ultimately, the actual figure was 158,466
1533

[lville]

Looks like all the dates are current except for EB2 India/China and all EB1's. They should already KNOW demand data for EB2 and Eb3. So why is USCIS still accepting filing dates ? Not that I'm complaining considering I got to file my 485 for the first time under EB2-I (May 22, 2009). But just curious.

[Dondraper]

With only annual quota, the EB2-I will take another few years to move into 2010. Downgrading is not going to accelerate if EB2-I stays ahead of EB3-I.

it looks more like a decade than a few years to move dates to 2010.. 2010 has a lot of folks. It will probably come to a grand halt. At this point downgrade isnt going to change the slowdown. Slow down in the name of vetting will affect the line for decades.

[harinatham14]

Hi Gurus,

My PD - August 2010 (EB3 - India)

I don't have any hope for my GC in next 2 or 3 years minimum. At least, If I get a chance to file my I-485 that's a big relief. So that will receive EAD/AP

Any predictions, when can I expect to file my I-485?

Thanks

[Jonty Rhodes]

Hi Gurus,

My PD - August 2010 (EB3 - India)

I don't have any hope for my GC in next 2 or 3 years minimum. At least, If I get a chance to file my I-485 that's a big relief. So that will receive EAD/AP

Any predictions, when can I expect to file my I-485?

Thanks

I would say probably somewhere around 5-6 years. That's when you should be able to file I-485. When you get an actual green card is another matter. Right now, people who are filing I-485 are waiting more than a year to get the green card due to mandatory interview requirements.

My date is in May, 2011 and I am expecting to get current in 11 years.

Now having said that, 5 years is a long timeframe so there is always a possibility that relief may come in form of some kind of a limited or comprehensive immigration reform or some kind of legislation that goes through Congress or may be DOS may advance filing dates and USCIS would respect those dates so at least we can get EAD. Obviously, this is all wishful thinking and things may not change at all and we all may just continue to wait eternally.

But I personally believe that we have reached a critical level where people in backlog are now very much aware at their own plight, especially with aging out children and they will be persistent in their efforts to get something done for their own sake and for their children's sake because they know that by doing nothing, they will continue to suffer.

[Dondraper]

Any one beyond Mid 2010 India will probably retire before they get GC.

[FarAwayfromGC]

Any one beyond Mid 2010 India will probably retire before they get GC.

Well said , TRUE

[jimmys]

I would say probably somewhere around 5-6 years. That's when you should be able to file I-485. When you get an actual green card is another matter. Right now, people who are filing I-485 are waiting more than a year to get the green card due to mandatory interview requirements.

My date is in May, 2011 and I am expecting to get current in 11 years.

Now having said that, 5 years is a long timeframe so there is always a possibility that relief may come in form of some kind of a limited or comprehensive immigration reform or some kind of legislation that goes through Congress or may be DOS may advance filing dates and USCIS would respect those dates so at least we can get EAD. Obviously, this is all wishful thinking and things may not change at all and we all may just continue to wait eternally.

But I personally believe that we have reached a critical level where people in backlog are now very much aware at their own plight, especially with aging out children and they will be persistent in their efforts to get something done for their own sake and for their children's sake because they know that by doing nothing, they will continue to suffer.

Though I tend to think 5-6 years is a stretch for EB-3 India Aug 2010 PD for filing I-485, I won't rule out the possibility.

My PD is EB-3/EB-2 July 2009 (I have two I-140s) and didn't get a chance to file in 2012. In FY 2014 last quarter, the EB-2 dates moved to May 1,2009. I was disappointed then and thought I will be current in October 2014 at the latest. Dead wrong. What actually happened was, I became current only in October 2018 in EB-3. Yes, it only took 4 years :mad:.

[IamGSN]

Yep. we both are on the same boat.... :)

[Dondraper]

Though I tend to think 5-6 years is a stretch for EB-3 India Aug 2010 PD for filing I-485, I won't rule out the possibility.

My PD is EB-3/EB-2 July 2009 (I have two I-140s) and didn't get a chance to file in 2012. In FY 2014 last quarter, the EB-2 dates moved to May 1,2009. I was disappointed then and thought I will be current in October 2014 at the latest. Dead wrong. What actually happened was, I became current only in October 2018 in EB-3. Yes, it only took 4 years :mad:.

Year 2040 and indian guys with PD 2010 will still be on this forum waiting for GC though. The line will probably never cross 2010 IMO for the next 10 years .

[swordfish380]

Year 2040 and indian guys with PD 2010 will still be on this forum waiting for GC though. The line will probably never cross 2010 IMO for the next 10 years .


You are absolutely right. In 10 Year's eb2i progressed by 8 months.

[GCdreamz]

Hi Gurus,

My PD - August 2010 (EB3 - India)

I don't have any hope for my GC in next 2 or 3 years minimum. At least, If I get a chance to file my I-485 that's a big relief. So that will receive EAD/AP

Any predictions, when can I expect to file my I-485?

Thanks

My PD is July 2010. I began to estimate my Date of Filing will be current when Final Action Date is 3 months away (Mar/Apr 2010) for EB3.

I think we will get good picture in May/June of each year if there will be Spill Over or not and estimate change drastically.

At present 3-4 yrs to get EAD is my estimate for Aug 2010

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

With a May 2010 EB2-I, I started out thinking it will take the usual ~5 yrs. Then when that passed, I thought, "ehh maybe 7 yrs". Now I have settled in to "umm maybe 12 yrs?". :D

[Dondraper]

My PD is July 2010. I began to estimate my Date of Filing will be current when Final Action Date is 3 months away (Mar/Apr 2010) for EB3.

I think we will get good picture in May/June of each year if there will be Spill Over or not and estimate change drastically.

At present 3-4 yrs to get EAD is my estimate for Aug 2010

Have you asked the folks who filed GC with PD 2010 back in 2012 ?. It sure isnt three months away

[bvsamrat]

Have you asked the folks who filed GC with PD 2010 back in 2012 ?. It sure isnt three months away
My honest opinion, we should review if all (or majority) waiting 2009 guys are all straight Eb2 I or ported from Eb3 I.
Otherwise it will be a moving goalpost

[rocketfast]

Spec updated the year end consular processing figures and there looks to be ~20,000 spillover coming from family based GCs (Assumes that Adjustment of Status remains at ~16,000 as it has been over the last few years).

This post is just a number plugging to Spec's original post of hypothetical 10,000 spillover here: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62399&viewfull=1#post62399


Spillover coming: ~20,000

FB Spillover - EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ----- EB5 ----- Total
Prorated ---- 28.6% --- 28.6% --- 28.6% ---- 7.1% ---- 7.1% --- 100.0%
20,000 ----- 5,720 --- 5,720 --- 5,720 ----- 1,420 ----- 1,420 --- 20,000
7% ----------- 400 ----- 400 ----- 400 ------ 100 ------ 100 ------ 1400


In EB1, EB2 and EB3 the overall allocation would increase from 40,040 to 45,760.

The 45,760 would initially be distributed as

Group ---------- Total -- Increase
China ---------- 3,203 ------- 400
India ---------- 3,203 ------- 400
Mexico --------- 3,203 ------- 400
Philippines ---- 3,203 ------- 400
ROW ----------- 32,948 ----- 4,120

Total --------- 45,760 ----- 5720

Since both EB1ROW is heavily backlogged, it will gobble it all up. Since EB2ROW is lightly backlogged, and since new ROW's EB1A and EB1B will likely come in as EB2NIW, EB2ROW will also gobble up everything coming its way.

The extra 4120 coming EB3-ROW's way provides some hope that EB3-I may get some of it this year. But nothing that is a game changer.

[iatiam]

Spec updated the year end consular processing figures and there looks to be ~20,000 spillover coming from family based GCs (Assumes that Adjustment of Status remains at ~16,000 as it has been over the last few years).

This post is just a number plugging to Spec's original post of hypothetical 10,000 spillover here: https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62399&viewfull=1#post62399


Spillover coming: ~20,000

FB Spillover - EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ----- EB5 ----- Total
Prorated ---- 28.6% --- 28.6% --- 28.6% ---- 7.1% ---- 7.1% --- 100.0%
20,000 ----- 5,720 --- 5,720 --- 5,720 ----- 1,420 ----- 1,420 --- 20,000
7% ----------- 400 ----- 400 ----- 400 ------ 100 ------ 100 ------ 1400


In EB1, EB2 and EB3 the overall allocation would increase from 40,040 to 45,760.

The 45,760 would initially be distributed as

Group ---------- Total -- Increase
China ---------- 3,203 ------- 400
India ---------- 3,203 ------- 400
Mexico --------- 3,203 ------- 400
Philippines ---- 3,203 ------- 400
ROW ----------- 32,948 ----- 4,120

Total --------- 45,760 ----- 5720

Since both EB1ROW is heavily backlogged, it will gobble it all up. Since EB2ROW is lightly backlogged, and since new ROW's EB1A and EB1B will likely come in as EB2NIW, EB2ROW will also gobble up everything coming its way.

The extra 4120 coming EB3-ROW's way provides some hope that EB3-I may get some of it this year. But nothing that is a game changer.

So EB2I and EB3I will get 400 visas each is what you are saying?

Iatiam

[vbollu]

Last year some what better we get a total of 10,146(EB2: 4096, EB3: 6,050) on total got at least 4k visas extra. With this pace we won't be able to clear 2009 data for another 3-4 years.

[iatiam]

Last year some what better we get a total of 10,146(EB2: 4096, EB3: 6,050) on total got at least 4k visas extra. With this pace we won't be able to clear 2009 data for another 3-4 years.

EB2I has a June 2009 bump it needs to cross and dates may start moving again a bit more rapidly till end of 2009. Remember that 2009 was a historically low filing period due to recession. However, the dates 2010 and beyond seem hopeless at this point.

Iatiam

[monsieur]

So EB2I and EB3I will get 400 visas each is what you are saying?

Iatiam


I think word extra is missing from above sentence.

Based on ~20k spillover from family, expected yearly quota for EB2 and EB3-I will increase by 400 each. So 3200 instead of 2800 within each category.

Net 800 extra for EB-2 and EB-3.

[Dondraper]

EB2I has a June 2009 bump it needs to cross and dates may start moving again a bit more rapidly till end of 2009. Remember that 2009 was a historically low filing period due to recession. However, the dates 2010 and beyond seem hopeless at this point.

Iatiam I doubt the numbers are low. How long has PD been in 2009 ? From Aug 2014 to date its stuck in 2009. So that is like 5 years and we have barely scratched June 2009. LEts say another 5 years to complete 2009. and than 2010. That will probably take 10+ year clear. So wait time will increase to 20+ for just those folks who filed in 2010. I cant imagine for those beyond 2010. No hope

[iatiam]

I doubt the numbers are low. How long has PD been in 2009 ? From Aug 2014 to date its stuck in 2009. So that is like 5 years and we have barely scratched June 2009. LEts say another 5 years to complete 2009. and than 2010. That will probably take 10+ year clear. So wait time will increase to 20+ for just those folks who filed in 2010. I cant imagine for those beyond 2010. No hope

I am basing it on July 2018 inventory. If you have better data do bring it and we can discuss. Else your guess is as good as mine. Also the main reason why EB2I dates have not moved has been generally attributed to porting from EB3 which has stopped.

You can also be super conservative and say that it will take 20 years or 200 years to clear 2010 but truth is that so many things like economy slowdown or legislative relief are impossible to predict.

Iatiam

[excalibur123]

I am basing it on July 2018 inventory. If you have better data do bring it and we can discuss. Else your guess is as good as mine. Also the main reason why EB2I dates have not moved has been generally attributed to porting from EB3 which has stopped.

You can also be super conservative and say that it will take 20 years or 200 years to clear 2010 but truth is that so many things like economy slowdown or legislative relief are impossible to predict.

Iatiam

There is no doubt that EB2 stalled because of EB3 porters from PDs 2003-2008. After all it wasnÂ’t a hugely difficult task to port after getting 5 years experience. My estimates based on old inventory data had pegged 20K visas to porting from 2012-2018.

But all that is over now - now what we have is effectively a joint line of eb2 and eb3. Another estimate of mine has Eb3 numbers at around 50 percent of EB2 - for 2009. The consular numbers are though whole another thing. No one thought of that to be a game changer.

[iatiam]

There is no doubt that EB2 stalled because of EB3 porters from PDs 2003-2008. After all it wasnÂ’t a hugely difficult task to port after getting 5 years experience. My estimates based on old inventory data had pegged 20K visas to porting from 2012-2018.

But all that is over now - now what we have is effectively a joint line of eb2 and eb3. Another estimate of mine has Eb3 numbers at around 50 percent of EB2 - for 2009. The consular numbers are though whole another thing. No one thought of that to be a game changer.

I agree with you completely and then this happens:
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

CO is attributing the one-day movement to EB3 upgrades. How can this ever be possible given EB3 was in sync or ahead of EB2 at least five months this year. Unbelievable!

Also where is the CP EB3 demand coming from? Based on Spec's figures, about 1,700 people applied for consular processing last year. I know that Indian IT companies are "flexible", but it's crazy to believe that all these people were employed in the same position for the last decade. Also, this "Ethical Flexibility" is what increased the filings in EB1C.

Iatiam

[canada]

I agree with you completely and then this happens:
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

CO is attributing the one-day movement to EB3 upgrades. How can this ever be possible given EB3 was in sync or ahead of EB2 at least five months this year. Unbelievable!

Also where is the CP EB3 demand coming from? Based on Spec's figures, about 1,700 people applied for consular processing last year. I know that Indian IT companies are "flexible", but it's crazy to believe that all these people were employed in the same position for the last decade. Also, this "Ethical Flexibility" is what increased the filings in EB1C.

Iatiam

I am all for supporting the removal of per country limits but our own Indian companies and Indian Nationals responsible for gaming the system by entering again through consular processing or international manager route.

BTW, I am in Medical field

[gcwait]

I agree with you completely and then this happens:
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

CO is attributing the one-day movement to EB3 upgrades. How can this ever be possible given EB3 was in sync or ahead of EB2 at least five months this year. Unbelievable!

Also where is the CP EB3 demand coming from? Based on Spec's figures, about 1,700 people applied for consular processing last year. I know that Indian IT companies are "flexible", but it's crazy to believe that all these people were employed in the same position for the last decade. Also, this "Ethical Flexibility" is what increased the filings in EB1C.

Iatiam

How difficult is to "find" a desi consultant and apply for a new PERM/ I-140? You retain the PD for the new PERM even if you have gone back. I am sure many would have figured it out.

[FarAwayfromGC]

I am all for supporting the removal of per country limits but our own Indian companies and Indian Nationals responsible for gaming the system by entering again through consular processing or international manager route.

BTW, I am in Medical field

You are right we Indians are experts in Gaming the system. But, immigrants from other countries do that too, no one is an exception when it comes to gaming the system, we are the best among them all !! No reforms will ease this frustrating situation, there are another 10k+ pending cases before the date hits 2010.

Like QUIT INDIA movement helped India get independence, QUIT USA moment may give independence to backlogged Engineers and Doctors.

[jimmys]

I agree with you completely and then this happens:
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

CO is attributing the one-day movement to EB3 upgrades. How can this ever be possible given EB3 was in sync or ahead of EB2 at least five months this year. Unbelievable!

Also where is the CP EB3 demand coming from? Based on Spec's figures, about 1,700 people applied for consular processing last year. I know that Indian IT companies are "flexible", but it's crazy to believe that all these people were employed in the same position for the last decade. Also, this "Ethical Flexibility" is what increased the filings in EB1C.

Iatiam

Unbelievable to see EB3 to EB2 upgrades,still. Better to keep both EB-3 and EB-2 dates close to each other.

Nothing about EB-3 India though. Since no spillover expected from ROW, EB3-India is screwed this year as well?

No word about potential spillover from FB to EB this FY.

[Spectator]

I agree with you completely and then this happens:
https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

CO is attributing the one-day movement to EB3 upgrades. How can this ever be possible given EB3 was in sync or ahead of EB2 at least five months this year. Unbelievable!

Also where is the CP EB3 demand coming from? Based on Spec's figures, about 1,700 people applied for consular processing last year. I know that Indian IT companies are "flexible", but it's crazy to believe that all these people were employed in the same position for the last decade. Also, this "Ethical Flexibility" is what increased the filings in EB1C.

Iatiam

Personally, I think CO is incorrect in his assessment about EB3-EB2 upgrades.

EB2-I with a 2009 PD have been waiting a long time to become current on a consistent basis.

After the period in 2012 when dates leapt forward, the next time any date in 2009 became current for approval was at the end of FY2014.

After that, (although there were some opportunities to file) 2009 PDs did not become current again for approval until the end of FY2018.

Sure, there probably are some ex EB3-I porters who completed the process many years ago, but there are also a large number of original EB2-I applicants left to approve with a PD in 2009.

[iatiam]

Personally, I think CO is incorrect in his assessment about EB3-EB2 upgrades.

EB2-I with a 2009 PD have been waiting a long time to become current on a consistent basis.

After the period in 2012 when dates leapt forward, the next time any date in 2009 became current for approval was at the end of FY2014.

After that, (although there were some opportunities to file) 2009 PDs did not become current again for approval until the end of FY2018.

Sure, there probably are some ex EB3-I porters who completed the process many years ago, but there are also a large number of original EB2-I applicants left to approve with a PD in 2009.

Spec,

Thanks for the comment. Is there some data to see how bad the pending demand is?

Iatiam

[Dondraper]

You are right we Indians are experts in Gaming the system. But, immigrants from other countries do that too, no one is an exception when it comes to gaming the system, we are the best among them all !! No reforms will ease this frustrating situation, there are another 10k+ pending cases before the date hits 2010.

Like QUIT INDIA movement helped India get independence, QUIT USA moment may give independence to backlogged Engineers and Doctors. The problem is over population from India and China. No amount of green cards will be sufficient when every corner in india is churning out engineering degrees by the lakhs. Removing country caps means US will become India and China.

[NJMavarick]

Check-In with Charlie! Predictions through the January 2020 Visa Bulletin

EB-1 India: no forward movement expected through January.
EB-2 India: Monthly movement up to 1 week.
EB-3 India and China: Little, if any, movement.

[iatiam]

I am trying to figure out how much SO from FB can EB2/EB3 get in FY 2020. The only recent statistic I have is from FY2013 which per the below link spilled over 18,000 visas.

https://blog.mygcvisa.com/2013/02/eb-category-to-receive-18000-additional.html?m=1

I checked this number against the numbers reported by DHS in their immigration yearbook as shown below,
1534

Putting these things together, I ran a calculation to see how the FB SO matches with the actual allocation and here it is.
1535

As you can see, the numbers check out fairly well.

Now the question is, given we can expect around 23,000 visas from FB this year, how will the numbers stack up? If EB1 ROW slows down (as expected) and EB2 ROW & EB3 ROW does not increase in demand, can we expect close to 6,000 visas to spillover to EB2I and EB3I respectively?
Spec, I am looking forward to you poking holes in my numbers

Iatiam

[jimmys]

If no category needs those spillover visa numbers, it will most likely end up with the most retrogressed country. But at this point of time, we don't know how the EB-2 ROW and EB-3 ROW will pan out. I suspect EB-2 ROW will yield to EB-2 India but I'm not sure about EB-3 ROW. The CO already told there are thousands of EB-3 ROW pending.

[iatiam]

If no category needs those spillover visa numbers, it will most likely end up with the most retrogressed country. But at this point of time, we don't know how the EB-2 ROW and EB-3 ROW will pan out. I suspect EB-2 ROW will yield to EB-2 India but I'm not sure about EB-3 ROW. The CO already told there are thousands of EB-3 ROW pending.

This is a fair point. However, EB1ROW is declining in demand per the last check-in which means it can also benefit EB2ROW. People in ROW who are tempted to go for EB2 due to retrogression will now hold off thereby benefiting EB2I. His point about EB3ROW in the last check-in is interesting. Perhaps this will end up with EB3I not getting and SO this year as well. Let's see what happens.

Iatiam

[jackbrown_890]

Iatiam... where are you getting 23000 SO number from?

[iatiam]

Iatiam... where are you getting 23000 SO number from?

Jackbrown, here is the screenshot from Spec's post

1536

Spec tends to be a realist/pessimist when reporting these numbers

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Iatiam... where are you getting 23000 SO number from?

Due to Consular Processing figures for FB being low in FY2019. Any shortfall of the 226,000 allocation for FB in FY2019 is added to the EB allocation for FY2020.

See this post (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards?p=63203&viewfull=1#post63203) and this post (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards?p=63205&viewfull=1#post63205).

[anfu02]

For Folks who already have their I-485 application pending and have their EAD/AP, what are the documents that need to be resubmitted other than the Medical examination when the filing dates become current? Thanks.

[monsieur]

with FB spillover in mind; any idea where EB2 and/or EB3 dates will reach?

Just changed jobs and new firm is filing in EB3 instead of EB2. if EB3 will stay ahead of EAD/AP I will let it file in EB3 otherwise will fight with my tooth and nails for EB-2 category.

[idliman]

For Folks who already have their I-485 application pending and have their EAD/AP, what are the documents that need to be resubmitted other than the Medical examination when the filing dates become current? Thanks.

You will get an RFE which will say what USCIS is looking for. The list includes:
1. I-693 Medicals
2. G-325A Biographic Information Form
3. G-28 Form (if attorney had changed)
4. I485 Supp J (if you had used AC21)
5. Any other concerns or supporting info asked in RFE.

[anfu02]

You will get an RFE which will say what USCIS is looking for. The list includes:
1. I-693 Medicals
2. G-325A Biographic Information Form
3. G-28 Form (if attorney had changed)
4. I485 Supp J (if you had used AC21)
5. Any other concerns or supporting info asked in RFE.

Thanks for the quick response.

[Priraj]

This is a fair point. However, EB1ROW is declining in demand per the last check-in which means it can also benefit EB2ROW. People in ROW who are tempted to go for EB2 due to retrogression will now hold off thereby benefiting EB2I. His point about EB3ROW in the last check-in is interesting. Perhaps this will end up with EB3I not getting and SO this year as well. Let's see what happens.

Iatiam

FB spillover is always distributed proportionate to the category allocation of the 140K visas which means 28.6%, 28.6%, 28.6%, 7.1% and 7.1% respectively to EB1,2,3,4,5. And within this country allocation kicks in which means 460 per country per category (0.286*.07*23K) and any unusued visas will make its lateral movement. The norms for EB2 is always less demanding than EB1 so not sure how you think people will choose EB1 instead of EB2?

[swaugh]

Does anyone know in which processing center the renewal of "AOS - Employment based" EAD happens? How would one know which processing center to select while checking the processing times before applying for a renewal?
Earliest one can apply EAD renewal is 180 days prior to expiration. Earliest one can apply AP renewal is 120 days prior to expiration.
Can one apply for a EAD/AP combo 180 days prior expiration? Or one has to apply EAD and AP renewal separately?

[mcmilers]

you can apply for EAD/AP combo 180 days prior to expiration. Thats what my company's lawyers did last time.

[gcwait]

Does anyone know in which processing center the renewal of "AOS - Employment based" EAD happens? How would one know which processing center to select while checking the processing times before applying for a renewal?
Earliest one can apply EAD renewal is 180 days prior to expiration. Earliest one can apply AP renewal is 120 days prior to expiration.
Can one apply for a EAD/AP combo 180 days prior expiration? Or one has to apply EAD and AP renewal separately?

Renewal application should go to the same service center which approved it last time unless you have moved to a different state which comes under a different jurisdiction.
There is no AP renewal. It is always a new AP. You can apply for a new AP at any time. EAD renewal can be applied 180 days before expiration at the earliest. You can apply for both EAD and AP at the same time to get a combo card.

[swaugh]

mcmilers/gcwiat - thank you for your response.
Last time, I sent to Dallas Lockbox and the application was routed to NBC. The processing center was chosen by USCIS. Are you saying that the renewal application will also go to NBC automatically?
If the priority date is not current(and will not be current anytime soon), how to request for a 2 year EAD/AP validity? Is this something we can do?
Thanks again for your responses.

[Nov2010]

Filing as a immediate relative of U.S. Citizen -

Friends,

Once the kid turns 21 he/she can sponsor for the parents under "immediate relative of U.S. Citizen" category and there is no waiting time for this category other than processing time.
Do we have some idea when we think this would start happening in large numbers? Ex: I've a 10 year old, and technically she can sponsor for me in the year 2031, provided I can survive until then :(
I think once we reach that point we should see a reduction in backlog. Just wanted to understand your thoughts :) I know this is a long short.

[mcmilers]

mcmilers/gcwiat - thank you for your response.
Last time, I sent to Dallas Lockbox and the application was routed to NBC. The processing center was chosen by USCIS. Are you saying that the renewal application will also go to NBC automatically?
If the priority date is not current(and will not be current anytime soon), how to request for a 2 year EAD/AP validity? Is this something we can do?
Thanks again for your responses.
Dont know about the processing center. I dont think you can ask for 2 years or 1 year on the app. form.

[newyorker123]

Filing as a immediate relative of U.S. Citizen -

Friends,

Once the kid turns 21 he/she can sponsor for the parents under "immediate relative of U.S. Citizen" category and there is no waiting time for this category other than processing time.
Do we have some idea when we think this would start happening in large numbers? Ex: I've a 10 year old, and technically she can sponsor for me in the year 2031, provided I can survive until then :(
I think once we reach that point we should see a reduction in backlog. Just wanted to understand your thoughts :) I know this is a long short.

A "LOT" can happen in 11 years.
Multiple governments will change, and multiple regulations will pass/fail.
I would advise you not to assume the success of this 11 year plan.
If you have long term plans for USA and are stuck in EB2/3 route, think of another country or EB1A/B/C route.

[lville]

Just got a mail from USCIS Form I-797, Notice of action.

Case type: I485J - CONFIRMATION OF BONA FIDE JOB OFFER OR REQUEST FOR JOB PORTABILITY INA SEC204(J)

Just to let you know When I filed my 485, I sent an employer verification letter with all other EAD/AP forms.

Notice Type: Receipt Notice Fee Waived


Just wanted to know what are they asking for ? BTW I have my Biometrics appointment this Thursday.

Should I be concerned?

Thank you.

[Spectator]

I've updated the FACTS & DATA PERM section (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) to include the FY2019 Q4 data recently published.

[iatiam]

I've updated the FACTS & DATA PERM section (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) to include the FY2019 Q4 data recently published.

Spec,

Thanks for the data. As always, extremely useful.

I am comparing PERM numbers from FY 2018 and FY2019 and seems like the numbers in FY 2018 (10955) is larger than FY 2019 (93865). Then why in the world did EB2I and EB3I receive SO in FY 2018 and not in FY 2019. What and I missing.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for the data. As always, extremely useful.

I am comparing PERM numbers from FY 2018 and FY2019 and seems like the numbers in FY 2018 (109550) is larger than FY 2019 (93865). Then why in the world did EB2I and EB3I receive SO in FY 2018 and not in FY 2019. What and I missing.

Iatiam

Without looking at it much, I would guess it was because there's a lag time from PERM certification to I-485/CP approval that you're not factoring in.

Simplistically, if you said that was a year, then FY2017 PERM Certifications (87,609) was a relatively "lighter" year.

In FY2019 (and so far in FY2020) there have really been any PD2019 approvals (bar the odd outlier).

[iatiam]

Without looking at it much, I would guess it was because there's a lag time from PERM certification to I-485/CP approval that you're not factoring in.

Simplistically, if you said that was a year, then FY2017 PERM Certifications (87,609) was a relatively "lighter" year.

In FY2019 (and so far in FY2020) there have really been any PD2019 approvals (bar the odd outlier).
Makes sense.

I know you don't make predictions any more given the sparse data but directionally is it safe to say that PERM filings have slowed down and this could increase SO this FY.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Makes sense.

I know you don't make predictions any more given the sparse data but directionally is it safe to say that PERM filings have slowed down and this could increase SO this FY.

Iatiam

You've used the term PERM filings and they have not slowed down. There is a general upward trend in the number of PERM applications received by DOL YoY. There's a judgement to be made about how many might be new PERM for people who have already established a PD with a previous PERM.

The speed of processing by DOL and therefore how many are certified in a FY does vary. The relationship between the two of course affects the backlog of cases to be processed.

The table below shows the figures for the last 10 FY. Processed = Certified + Denied + Withdrawn.

- FY --- Filings - Certified - Processed -- Backlog
FY2010 -- 43,984 ---- 70,237 ---- 81,412 --- 29,993
FY2011 -- 67,383 ---- 59,863 ---- 73,207 --- 19,807
FY2012 -- 69,738 ---- 54,616 ---- 63,793 --- 22,860
FY2013 -- 72,462 ---- 35,202 ---- 44,147 --- 49,826
FY2014 -- 74,936 ---- 62,633 ---- 70,997 --- 59,901
FY2015 -- 87,644 ---- 78,938 ---- 88,994 --- 58,926
FY2016 -- 97,504 --- 115,933 --- 126,143 --- 30,941
FY2017 - 105,007 ---- 87,609 ---- 97,603 --- 38,819
FY2018 - 104,360 --- 109,550 --- 119,776 --- 24,052
FY2019 - 113,014 ---- 93,865 --- 102,655 --- 34,677


Sources:
Some early figures from Annual DOL report.
Filings & Backlog from DOL Selected Statistics reports.
Certified and Processed from DOL Disclosure Data (also matches Selected Statistics reports).

[qesehmk]

Spec this is a good post. If you have the certified column available please add it to your post.

[Spectator]

Spec this is a good post. If you have the certified column available please add it to your post.

Done.

Also updated a few of the early figures with numbers from a better source.

[iatiam]

Done.

Also updated a few of the early figures with numbers from a better source.

Thanks. Again, makes sense.

Let me re-phrase the question. While PERM filings have increased, the processed numbers have reduced. Is this a fair statement? If so, given the lag you mentioned in the previous post, does it, in some time reduce the ROW demand? Also, when is a PERM withdrawn? Is it when an employer decides not to go to I-140 stage?

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Thanks. Again, makes sense.

Let me re-phrase the question. While PERM filings have increased, the processed numbers have reduced. Is this a fair statement? If so, given the lag you mentioned in the previous post, does it, in some time reduce the ROW demand? Also, when is a PERM withdrawn? Is it when an employer decides not to go to I-140 stage?

Iatiam

In theory there should be a correlation, but it's probably not a simple one.

Withdrawn means the employer requested withdrawal of the PERM application before DOL could render a decision on it (either to certify or deny it). The only ones that can proceed to the I-140 stage are those that are Certified.

[vbollu]

Based on the above backlog table, just to clear 2010, 2011 EB2, EB3 backlogs we need to have 120k visas (50k total applicants, 50k spouses, and if 1 kid per family)..is that correct Spec ?

[GCkaLADDU]

Based on the above backlog table, just to clear 2010, 2011 EB2, EB3 backlogs we need to have 120k visas (50k total applicants, 50k spouses, and if 1 kid per family)..is that correct Spec ?

These PERM numbers are for India + ROW. Looking at PERM stats which SPEC had put together and throwing in some of my analysis, the number of primary applicants (EB2 and EB3) from India who have priority dates in 2010 and 2011 are:

2010 - 22328
2011 - 29938

I have used case received year (A-XX) as an indicator for determining priority date. For ex: Count of A-10's (excluding Denied and Withdrawn) spanning across multiple years

DOL Report FY 2010 - 9157
DOL Report FY 2011 - 12958
DOL Report FY 2012 - 184
DOL Report FY 2013 - 15
DOL Report FY 2014 - 14

[Zenzone]

These PERM numbers are for India + ROW. Looking at PERM stats which SPEC had put together and throwing in some of my analysis, the number of primary applicants (EB2 and EB3) from India who have priority dates in 2010 and 2011 are:

2010 - 22328
2011 - 29938

I have used case received year (A-XX) as an indicator for determining priority date. For ex: Count of A-10's (excluding Denied and Withdrawn) spanning across multiple years

DOL Report FY 2010 - 9157
DOL Report FY 2011 - 12958
DOL Report FY 2012 - 184
DOL Report FY 2013 - 15
DOL Report FY 2014 - 14

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks!

1) Is the 2010 pending backlog for India ~ 22.5K above including active processed awaiting I-485 applications?
2) What's your estimate for similar backlog of applications left in 2009?
3) Also, out of curiosity, how many visas were allocated to EB2 and EB3 India in FY 2018 and 2019 and estimated for 2020 (million dollar question :))

[Zenzone]

These PERM numbers are for India + ROW. Looking at PERM stats which SPEC had put together and throwing in some of my analysis, the number of primary applicants (EB2 and EB3) from India who have priority dates in 2010 and 2011 are:

2010 - 22328
2011 - 29938

I have used case received year (A-XX) as an indicator for determining priority date. For ex: Count of A-10's (excluding Denied and Withdrawn) spanning across multiple years

DOL Report FY 2010 - 9157
DOL Report FY 2011 - 12958
DOL Report FY 2012 - 184
DOL Report FY 2013 - 15
DOL Report FY 2014 - 14

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks!! Couple of quick questions on your EB2/3 India backlogs -

1) Does your backlog for 2010 - 22328 just primary and we need to factor in the multipliers for actuals?
2) Do you have a similar number for remaining cases in 2009?
3) How many visas EB2/3 India got in FY 2019, 2018?

[Priraj]

These PERM numbers are for India + ROW. Looking at PERM stats which SPEC had put together and throwing in some of my analysis, the number of primary applicants (EB2 and EB3) from India who have priority dates in 2010 and 2011 are:

2010 - 22328
2011 - 29938

I have used case received year (A-XX) as an indicator for determining priority date. For ex: Count of A-10's (excluding Denied and Withdrawn) spanning across multiple years

DOL Report FY 2010 - 9157
DOL Report FY 2011 - 12958
DOL Report FY 2012 - 184
DOL Report FY 2013 - 15
DOL Report FY 2014 - 14

The DOL report shows FY2010 - 28930 and FY2011 - 31273 (includes every PERM with no idea on porters and both husband and wife having their own PERMs_. How did you manage to get 22,328 and 29,938? Do you have info on porters or people who have got their GCs?

[iatiam]

The DOL report shows FY2010 - 28930 and FY2011 - 31273 (includes every PERM with no idea on porters and both husband and wife having their own PERMs_. How did you manage to get 22,328 and 29,938? Do you have info on porters or people who have got their GCs?

Priraj,

Spec has explained how to interpret his tables in the posts. I am, honestly, not smart enough to understand it. Also, the 2009 and 2010 numbers seemed too low. Again, I might be reading it all wrong. If you understand it, let us know.

Iatiam

[GCkaLADDU]

The DOL report shows FY2010 - 28930 and FY2011 - 31273 (includes every PERM with no idea on porters and both husband and wife having their own PERMs_. How did you manage to get 22,328 and 29,938? Do you have info on porters or people who have got their GCs?

Priraj

DOL report shows the cases for which a decision was made in FY 2010. However, its not necessary that all those cases were created (factor which determines the priority date for the case) within that FY. For ex: look at these cases in FY2010

CASE_NO APPLICATION_TYPE DECISION_DATE CASE_STATUS
A-08352-14939 PERM 11/9/2009 Certified-Expired
A-08352-14940 PERM 11/19/2009 Certified-Expired


The first two number after A (highlighted in RED) mean that these cases were created in year 2008 (hence will have a priority date in 2008) but were processed only in FY2010. I excluded all such cases to determine the exact number of process-ed cases for 2010 in FY2010 report and arrived at 9157. Likewise, a bunch of cases created in 2010 were actually in DOL FY2011 report (12,958 to be precise).

Its confusing math but I hope i am making sense here.

[GCkaLADDU]

Priraj

DOL report shows the cases for which a decision was made in FY 2010. However, its not necessary that all those cases were created (factor which determines the priority date for the case) within that FY. For ex: look at these cases in FY2010

CASE_NO APPLICATION_TYPE DECISION_DATE CASE_STATUS
A-08352-14939 PERM 11/9/2009 Certified-Expired
A-08352-14940 PERM 11/19/2009 Certified-Expired


The first two number after A (highlighted in RED) mean that these cases were created in year 2008 (hence will have a priority date in 2008) but were processed only in FY2010. I excluded all such cases to determine the exact number of process-ed cases for 2010 in FY2010 report and arrived at 9157. Likewise, a bunch of cases created in 2010 were actually in DOL FY2011 report (12,958 to be precise).

Its confusing math but I hope i am making sense here.

Also, my own case confirms this hypothesis. I have a priority date in April 2013 and my PERM case starts with A-13XXXX. However, my case didn't show up in DOL reports for FY2013 and FY2014. It's in FY2015 report as a decision was taken in Oct 2014 after an audit.

[iatiam]

Also, my own case confirms this hypothesis. I have a priority date in April 2013 and my PERM case starts with A-13XXXX. However, my case didn't show up in DOL reports for FY2013 and FY2014. It's in FY2015 report as a decision was taken in Oct 2014 after an audit.

Whats this number for FY 2009

Iatiam

[GCkaLADDU]

Whats this number for FY 2009

Iatiam

Here's what i have done so far:

Priority Year-----Total Cases Processed (India)
2008-------------15638
2009-------------16661
2010-------------22328
2011-------------29938
2012-------------36488
2013-------------28210

[GCkaLADDU]

Here's what i have done so far:

Priority Year-----Total Cases Processed (India)
2008-------------15638
2009-------------16661
2010-------------22328
2011-------------29938
2012-------------36488
2013-------------28210

Again, it's doesn't give you an accurate picture of the people in backlog (they might have multiple PERMs, multiple I-140s etc). But at least a rough guesstimate on the size of queue

[Spectator]

Here's what i have done so far:

Priority Year-----Total Cases Processed (India)
2008-------------15638
2009-------------16661
2010-------------22328
2011-------------29938
2012-------------36488
2013-------------28210

You'll find the accurate figures for numbers based on PD by A number from all the FY PERM data disclosures in this post (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations).

No point reinventing the wheel and putting a lot of hard work in.

[vbollu]

Based on the above calculations, assuming that just to clear 2010 EB-2 backlog (20k primary applicants) it will take another decade. if we club current EB2 backlog with 2009 all together takes 15 years.

[iatiam]

Based on the above calculations, assuming that just to clear 2010 EB-2 backlog (20k primary applicants) it will take another decade. if we club current EB2 backlog with 2009 all together takes 15 years.

Sounds about right. Since your PD is in 2011,you should consider plan B - like moving to India and coming back and applying in EB1C or self-petitioning for EB1A etc.

Unless there is legislative relief, people with 2011 or beyond have limited chance.

[monsieur]

Without more data its hard to tell whether it will take 10 or 15 yrs. You never know

How many of these folks have abandoned their petitions
How many are for both husband and wife
How many left country and came back and filed in EB1
There might be cases where person may have married to USC or from other country and did Interfiling.

Too many unknowns to predict.

[rocketfast]

Based on the above calculations, assuming that just to clear 2010 EB-2 backlog (20k primary applicants) it will take another decade. if we club current EB2 backlog with 2009 all together takes 15 years.

2010 PERM number is EB2-I + EB3-I. And worst case supply of GC is ~5600/year (EB2-I + EB3-I).

[vbollu]

Sounds about right. Since your PD is in 2011,you should consider plan B - like moving to India and coming back and applying in EB1C or self-petitioning for EB1A etc.

Unless there is legislative relief, people with 2011 or beyond have limited chance.

Earlier we have a ray of hope that in every election year they move the dates for a year or 2, but this time we don't have any chance. Any how it's game close for people who applied on or after Jan 2011 and if every thing goes well their US kids will apply for GC. Bad luck for Indian child who moved to this country whose age is greater than 5 and all should left to the home country at the same time.

[Moveon]

About a year and a half ago I got my EAD for 2 years and AP for a year as I travelled to India while my AP was being processed. Anyway I applied for my AP renewal Mid June this year (5 months before expiry) and my application still shows "in-progress" .

I checked the Web site and it says

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated time range | Form type | Receipt date for a case inquiry
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Months to 6 Months | Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit | May 29, 2019
5 Months to 7 Months | All other applicants for advance parole | April 29, 2019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Which Category do I fall into as my application is "AOS(I-485) EB2-I" . My AP expires this week and I will not be able to travel outside the country in case of any emergency.

Any help in determining which category I fall into will help me estimate how long it will take me as Its moving at the rate of one day per day for the last month

[nbk1976]

Also, my own case confirms this hypothesis. I have a priority date in April 2013 and my PERM case starts with A-13XXXX. However, my case didn't show up in DOL reports for FY2013 and FY2014. It's in FY2015 report as a decision was taken in Oct 2014 after an audit.

How come my PERM has A-09---- but my priority date is Feb 2010? Is it an error?

[anfu02]

You should fall under "All other applicants", I had applied on July 12th. I didn't realize they were still processing the ones from June.



About a year and a half ago I got my EAD for 2 years and AP for a year as I travelled to India while my AP was being processed. Anyway I applied for my AP renewal Mid June this year (5 months before expiry) and my application still shows "in-progress" .

I checked the Web site and it says

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated time range | Form type | Receipt date for a case inquiry
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Months to 6 Months | Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit | May 29, 2019
5 Months to 7 Months | All other applicants for advance parole | April 29, 2019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Which Category do I fall into as my application is "AOS(I-485) EB2-I" . My AP expires this week and I will not be able to travel outside the country in case of any emergency.

Any help in determining which category I fall into will help me estimate how long it will take me as Its moving at the rate of one day per day for the last month

[Zenzone]

Let's say we have the following -

Pending backlog (based on the calc above) -

1) EB2/3 (2009) - 7000

2) EB2/3 (2010) - 20,000

Total - 27000
With a multiplier of 2.5 to account for spouse and kids on an average - 27000 * 2.5 = 67,500 in total

Now with EB2 and EB3 combined we get 5600 visas allotted per year. Assuming a modest spillover of just 1,500 visas on a average per year per category we get 3K in spillover combined. That puts our overall visas granted to be ~ 9K per year. At that rate wouldn't it take close to 7.5 years to clear 2010?

Am I missing anything here? Thoughts??

Btw my PD is Dec 20 2010 ;)

[Moveon]

You should fall under "All other applicants", I had applied on July 12th. I didn't realize they were still processing the ones from June.

In that case they are processing April and not June (Nebraska). This means that you cannot travel outside the country for 7 out of 12 months in a year. I had travelled to India for 2 weeks in 2017 when AP was in process and they rejected it due to travel while in progress and I reapplied . So I got AP for only one year and looks like AP renewals are for only one year and not two when you apply for a combo card.

Anyone else who filed for AP at Nebraska Mid of this year ?

[idliman]

Any predictions on how the PDs are going to move for the next few months? The next VB should come out this week.

[excalibur123]

In that case they are processing April and not June (Nebraska). This means that you cannot travel outside the country for 7 out of 12 months in a year. I had travelled to India for 2 weeks in 2017 when AP was in process and they rejected it due to travel while in progress and I reapplied . So I got AP for only one year and looks like AP renewals are for only one year and not two when you apply for a combo card.

Anyone else who filed for AP at Nebraska Mid of this year ?

How does one know what center to file the AP application at for renewal? My AOS had gone to NBC but I presume that’s just for initial application.

[Moveon]

How does one know what center to file the AP application at for renewal? My AOS had gone to NBC but I presume that’s just for initial application.

I believe you will file for the EAD/AP at the same center where your AOS petition was filed

[paramjit74]

How does one know what center to file the AP application at for renewal? My AOS had gone to NBC but I presume that’s just for initial application.

The instructions here are very clear -

https://www.uscis.gov/i-131-addresses

[jimmys]

The instructions here are very clear -

https://www.uscis.gov/i-131-addresses

Right, these instructions are applicable if you file I-131 alone.

If you file for a combo card, you have to send your form I-131 to where you're sending your form I-765. Depending on your domicile, it's going to be either Phoenix or Dallas lockbox(For most employment I-485 cases. There may be exceptions,though).

[paramjit74]

Right, these instructions are applicable if you file I-131 alone.

If you file for a combo card, you have to send your form I-131 to where you're sending your form I-765. Depending on your domicile, it's going to be either Phoenix or Dallas lockbox(For most employment I-485 cases. There may be exceptions,though).

Sorry but its the other way around. If filing together you have to send I-765 to where you send your I-131.

https://www.uscis.gov/i-765-addresses

"If you are filing Form I-765 with another form, file both forms at the location specified by the other form. For example, if you are filing Form I-765 with a Form I-539, file both forms according to the Form I-539 Instructions. Use addresses below only when you are NOT submitting Form I-765 with another form."

[jimmys]

Sorry but its the other way around. If filing together you have to send I-765 to where you send your I-131.

https://www.uscis.gov/i-765-addresses

"If you are filing Form I-765 with another form, file both forms at the location specified by the other form. For example, if you are filing Form I-765 with a Form I-539, file both forms according to the Form I-539 Instructions. Use addresses below only when you are NOT submitting Form I-765 with another form."

Nope.

https://www.uscis.gov/forms/filing-directions-obtain-employment-authorization-and-advance-parole-card-where-adjustment-status-application-pending

From above link:)

If Form I-485 has already been filed and Forms I-765 and I-131 are being filed together, use Form I-765 filing location instructions.

What you're saying is applicable for may be H-4 EAD I-765 forms which need to be sent along H-1/H-4 package.

[excalibur123]

Nope.

https://www.uscis.gov/forms/filing-directions-obtain-employment-authorization-and-advance-parole-card-where-adjustment-status-application-pending

From above link:)

If Form I-485 has already been filed and Forms I-765 and I-131 are being filed together, use Form I-765 filing location instructions.

What you're saying is applicable for may be H-4 EAD I-765 forms which need to be sent along H-1/H-4 package.

So to compile for everyone's use, for renewals -
Filing I131 alone - Use I131 Addresses
Filing I765 or I765+I131 - Use I765 Addresses

[rabp77]

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Annual%20%20Numerical%20%20Limits%20-%20FY2020.pdf

Not sure what this means, but would like to know the comments of experts in this thread

[Spectator]

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Annual%20%20Numerical%20%20Limits%20-%20FY2020.pdf

Not sure what this means, but would like to know the comments of experts in this thread

This is CO's first estimate of what the annual allocations for EB and FB in FY2020 will be.

The bottom line figure for EB is 156,500.

That's saying that EB will have 16,500 more visas available than the minimum 140,000 allocation.

We already know that in FY2019, FB used 21k less visas than in FY2018. Since only 16.5k seem to be available, it suggests FB AOS approvals in FY2019 were higher than in FY2018.

Put another way, 16.5k extra EB visas suggests FB used 226k - 16.5k = 209.5k in FY2019.

We know that Consular approvals for FB accounted for 190.6k of that total, so FB AOS approvals would have been about 209.5k - 190.6k = 18.9k.

Numbers are approximate.

[iatiam]

This is CO's first estimate of what the annual allocations for EB and FB in FY2020 will be.

The bottom line figure for EB is 156,500.

That's saying that EB will have 16,500 more visas available than the minimum 140,000 allocation.

We already know that in FY2019, FB used 21k less visas than in FY2018. Since only 16.5k seem to be available, it suggests FB AOS approvals in FY2019 were higher than in FY2018.

Put another way, 16.5k extra EB visas suggests FB used 226k - 16.5k = 209.5k in FY2019.

We know that Consular approvals for FB accounted for 190.6k of that total, so FB AOS approvals would have been about 209.5k - 190.6k = 18.9k.

Numbers are approximate.

Spec any idea when these numbers will be applied.

Iatiam

[Priraj]

Also, my own case confirms this hypothesis. I have a priority date in April 2013 and my PERM case starts with A-13XXXX. However, my case didn't show up in DOL reports for FY2013 and FY2014. It's in FY2015 report as a decision was taken in Oct 2014 after an audit.


Thanks for the clarification. Now I get it.. Didn't realize that subtlety

[iatiam]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-december-2019.html

Some concerning language at the end

"In recent weeks there has been a steadily increasing level of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Continuation of the current demand pattern would require the establishment of final action dates in the Employment Second, Third, and Third Other Worker preference categories as early as January. Such action would be required in an effort to hold number use within those FY 2020 annual limits."

Iatiam

[IamGSN]

It isn't very clear what's early January mean?

[Spectator]

It isn't very clear what's early January mean?

It's not "early January", it's "as early as January" (as in the January 2020 VB).

My interpretation is that CO is saying that current demand he's seeing from USCIS (i.e. AOS approvals) for EB2 and EB3 as a whole is outstripping the quarterly numbers he has available to allocate to those categories.

If it doesn't slow down, he'll have to impose a cut off date on ROW in the categories mentioned. If there's more demand from 7% limited Countries than can be allowed, they might be retrogressed further as well.

He might have to do that as early as the January 2020 visa bulletin.

He mentions "within those FY 2020 annual limits", but I think that's a bit of a misnomer at this stage, since CO is bound by quarterly and monthly limits for the first 3 quarters of the FY.

[idliman]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-december-2019.html

Some concerning language at the end

"In recent weeks there has been a steadily increasing level of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Continuation of the current demand pattern would require the establishment of final action dates in the Employment Second, Third, and Third Other Worker preference categories as early as January. Such action would be required in an effort to hold number use within those FY 2020 annual limits."

Iatiam

EB1 INDIA FA -- 01JAN15 (No Change)
EB2 INDIA FA -- 15MAY09 (+2 Days) Yay!
EB3 INDIA FA -- 01JAN09 (No Change)

No change in DF dates for EB1/EB2/EB3 India.

EB1 ROW moved by 1.5 months to 15JUL18. EB2/EB3 ROW are current.

[iatiam]

It's not "early January", it's "as early as January" (as in the January 2020 VB).

My interpretation is that CO is saying that current demand he's seeing from USCIS (i.e. AOS approvals) for EB2 and EB3 as a whole is outstripping the quarterly numbers he has available to allocate to those categories.

If it doesn't slow down, he'll have to impose a cut off date on ROW in the categories mentioned. If there's more demand from 7% limited Countries than can be allowed, they might be retrogressed further as well.

He might have to do that as early as the January 2020 visa bulletin.

He mentions "within those FY 2020 annual limits", but I think that's a bit of a misnomer at this stage, since CO is bound by quarterly and monthly limits for the first 3 quarters of the FY.

I guess that gives a sliver of hope there. If the demand reduces over the next few months, is it safe to say that the dates will made current again. I am thinking of the impact the FB SO will have on CO's calculation

[anfu02]

Dear Moveon:
Would you mind responding to the group when your AP gets approved? What's your receipt date?

thanks.


About a year and a half ago I got my EAD for 2 years and AP for a year as I travelled to India while my AP was being processed. Anyway I applied for my AP renewal Mid June this year (5 months before expiry) and my application still shows "in-progress" .

I checked the Web site and it says

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Estimated time range | Form type | Receipt date for a case inquiry
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
4 Months to 6 Months | Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit | May 29, 2019
5 Months to 7 Months | All other applicants for advance parole | April 29, 2019
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Which Category do I fall into as my application is "AOS(I-485) EB2-I" . My AP expires this week and I will not be able to travel outside the country in case of any emergency.

Any help in determining which category I fall into will help me estimate how long it will take me as Its moving at the rate of one day per day for the last month

[newsletter1978]

Why wouldn't the EB3I dates move. There was very minimal inventory in the last published i485 inventory for EB3. I would have expected Eb3I dates to move a little bit.

[Moveon]

Dear Moveon:
Would you mind responding to the group when your AP gets approved? What's your receipt date?

thanks.

Sure. My Receipt date is June 15th . I find it hard to believe that Refugee and Asylees are ahead of legal immigrants. I hope the date for legal immigrants (Via i-485) applying for AP is June 5th and not May 06 .

Today's status :
Estimated time range---------------Form type---------------------------------------------------------Receipt date for a case inquiry
4 Months to 6 Months---------------Refugee or asylee applying for a refugee travel document--------------June 05, 2019
4 Months to 6 Months--------------- Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit -------------- June 05, 2019
5 Months to 7 Months--------------- All other applicants for advance parole --------------------------------- May 06, 2019

[iatiam]

It's not "early January", it's "as early as January" (as in the January 2020 VB).

My interpretation is that CO is saying that current demand he's seeing from USCIS (i.e. AOS approvals) for EB2 and EB3 as a whole is outstripping the quarterly numbers he has available to allocate to those categories.

If it doesn't slow down, he'll have to impose a cut off date on ROW in the categories mentioned. If there's more demand from 7% limited Countries than can be allowed, they might be retrogressed further as well.

He might have to do that as early as the January 2020 visa bulletin.

He mentions "within those FY 2020 annual limits", but I think that's a bit of a misnomer at this stage, since CO is bound by quarterly and monthly limits for the first 3 quarters of the FY.

Spec,

Any idea why there is a sudden spike in demand for ROW? Can it be construed as a cyclic demand given ROW was retrogressed in September and became current again in October? Or is this some systemic, sustained demand. I am looking at the PERM approvals and it hasn't spiked at all.

Iatiam

[jimmys]

It's not "early January", it's "as early as January" (as in the January 2020 VB).

My interpretation is that CO is saying that current demand he's seeing from USCIS (i.e. AOS approvals) for EB2 and EB3 as a whole is outstripping the quarterly numbers he has available to allocate to those categories.

If it doesn't slow down, he'll have to impose a cut off date on ROW in the categories mentioned. If there's more demand from 7% limited Countries than can be allowed, they might be retrogressed further as well.

He might have to do that as early as the January 2020 visa bulletin.

He mentions "within those FY 2020 annual limits", but I think that's a bit of a misnomer at this stage, since CO is bound by quarterly and monthly limits for the first 3 quarters of the FY.

The December 2019 bulletin still says employment based immigrants are at least 140,000 for the year. Does it mean the DoS didn't account for the 16K+ numbers it received from FB?

[rabp77]

This is CO's first estimate of what the annual allocations for EB and FB in FY2020 will be.

The bottom line figure for EB is 156,500.

That's saying that EB will have 16,500 more visas available than the minimum 140,000 allocation.

We already know that in FY2019, FB used 21k less visas than in FY2018. Since only 16.5k seem to be available, it suggests FB AOS approvals in FY2019 were higher than in FY2018.

Put another way, 16.5k extra EB visas suggests FB used 226k - 16.5k = 209.5k in FY2019.

We know that Consular approvals for FB accounted for 190.6k of that total, so FB AOS approvals would have been about 209.5k - 190.6k = 18.9k.

Numbers are approximate.

Thank you Spec, Very insightful as always.

[Spectator]

The December 2019 bulletin still says employment based immigrants are at least 140,000 for the year. Does it mean the DoS didn't account for the 16K+ numbers it received from FB?

It always says that in the VB until USCIS release to DOS some information needed to make the higher allocation official.

USCIS are so slow, that this usually happens around July and is shown in the September VB.

If you look in the August 2019 VB (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-august-2019.html), it still has the 140,000 language.

In the September 2019 VB (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-september-2019.html), the official number of 141,918 is mentioned and Section F says:


F. DETERMINATION OF THE NUMERICAL LIMITS ON IMMIGRANTS REQUIRED UNDER THE TERMS OF THE IMMIGRATION AND NATIONALITY ACT (INA)

The State Department is required to make a determination of the worldwide numerical limitations, as outlined in Section 201(c) and (d) of the INA, on an annual basis. These calculations are based in part on data provided by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) regarding the number of immediate relative adjustments in the preceding year and the number of aliens paroled into the United States under Section 212(d)(5) in the second preceding year. Without this information, it is impossible to make an official determination of the annual limits. To avoid delays in processing while waiting for the USCIS data, the Visa Office (VO) bases allocations on the minimum annual limits outlined in Section 201 of the INA. On July 17th, USCIS provided the required data to VO.

The Department of State has determined the Family and Employment preference numerical limits for FY-2019 in accordance with the terms of Section 201 of the INA. These numerical limitations for FY-2019 are as follows:

Worldwide Family-Sponsored preference limit: 226,000
Worldwide Employment-Based preference limit: 141,918

Under INA Section 202(a), the per-country limit is fixed at 7% of the family and employment annual limits. For FY-2019 the per-country limit is 25,754. The dependent area annual limit is 2%, or 7,358.

Despite the above, CO uses a best estimate (particularly after the DOS Immigration Statistics are published) since the number of aliens paroled (this affects the EB calculation) is quite small and the immediate relatives figure only affects the FB allocation (the number is so large that 226,000 is guaranteed under the formula).

For instance, the FY2018 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 1,910 extra visas might be available in FY2019. The actual number was 1,918.
The FY2017 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 218 extra visas might be available in FY2018. The actual number was 292.
The FY2016 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 0 extra visas might be available in FY2017. The actual number was 0.
The FY2015 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 329 extra visas might be available in FY2016. The actual number was 338.
The FY2014 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 4,807 extra visas might be available in FY2015. The actual number was 4,796.

[lville]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-december-2019.html

Some concerning language at the end

"In recent weeks there has been a steadily increasing level of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. Continuation of the current demand pattern would require the establishment of final action dates in the Employment Second, Third, and Third Other Worker preference categories as early as January. Such action would be required in an effort to hold number use within those FY 2020 annual limits."

Iatiam

How does this affect EB2I ? Will EB2I keep advancing or stall ? Or do you thinks it’s talking about ROW

[harapatta]

Another disappointing month ...

Month EB2 : FA Movement(Days) EB2 : DF Movement(Days)
September 5/8/2009 6/1/2009
October 5/12/2009 4 7/1/2009 30
November 5/13/2009 1 7/1/2009 0
December 5/15/2009 2 7/1/2009 0

[newsletter1978]

Hello Gurus, anyone has insight to why the EB3I dates wouldn't move. There was very minimal inventory in the last published i485 inventory for EB3. I would have expected Eb3I dates to move a little bit.

[jimmys]

It always says that in the VB until USCIS release to DOS some information needed to make the higher allocation official.

USCIS are so slow, that this usually happens around July and is shown in the September VB.

If you look in the August 2019 VB (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-august-2019.html), it still has the 140,000 language.

In the September 2019 VB (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-september-2019.html), the official number of 141,918 is mentioned and Section F says:



Despite the above, CO uses a best estimate (particularly after the DOS Immigration Statistics are published) since the number of aliens paroled (this affects the EB calculation) is quite small and the immediate relatives figure only affects the FB allocation (the number is so large that 226,000 is guaranteed under the formula).

For instance, the FY2018 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 1,910 extra visas might be available in FY2019. The actual number was 1,918.
The FY2017 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 218 extra visas might be available in FY2018. The actual number was 292.
The FY2016 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 0 extra visas might be available in FY2017. The actual number was 0.
The FY2015 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 329 extra visas might be available in FY2016. The actual number was 338.
The FY2014 DOS Visa Statistics suggested 4,807 extra visas might be available in FY2015. The actual number was 4,796.

Thanks for the detailed explanation, Spec.

[FarAwayfromGC]

Hello Gurus, anyone has insight to why the EB3I dates wouldn't move. There was very minimal inventory in the last published i485 inventory for EB3. I would have expected Eb3I dates to move a little bit.

Most available EB3 Visas were consumed by CP, all the Expats (so to say) are returning to US with GCs. You won't see significant movement this FY or in near future.

[iatiam]

Hello Gurus, anyone has insight to why the EB3I dates wouldn't move. There was very minimal inventory in the last published i485 inventory for EB3. I would have expected Eb3I dates to move a little bit.

The last inventory was released before the EB3I dates started moving. The general consensus is that this inventory does not have EB3I cases when the dates started moving forward. Also note that more than half of EB3I demand is coming from CP cases which will not show up in 485. Unless there is some good data, there is no point trying to predict movement. Based on the last check-in with CO, there is much more demand in EB3 from other countries. I am not smart enough to tell where this demand is coming from. I only hope that the demand drops down after a while and EB3 dates move forward.

Iatiam

[jimmys]

Most available EB3 Visas were consumed by CP, all the Expats (so to say) are returning to US with GCs. You won't see significant movement this FY or in near future.

CP is not as much of a threat to EB3 India. It's the lack of horizontal spillovers from EB ROW. If EB3 ROW demand reduces in the coming months (And, Philippines staying close to the current or current. Yes, this will save us from Philippines getting allocated to 7% of the country quota across categories) there will be a significant movement in EB3 India with or without CP consuming visas. The EB ROW demand always ebbs and flows. So, there's a possibility in the next 6-9 months for EB3 India to move significantly i.e. 6 months and beyond.

[iatiam]

CP is not as much of a threat to EB3 India. It's the lack of horizontal spillovers from EB ROW. If EB3 ROW demand reduces in the coming months (And, Philippines staying close to the current or current. Yes, this will save us from Philippines getting allocated to 7% of the country quota across categories) there will be a significant movement in EB3 India with or without CP consuming visas. The EB ROW demand always ebbs and flows. So, there's a possibility in the next 6-9 months for EB3 India to move significantly i.e. 6 months and beyond.

I certainly hope it moves along. But why do you say CP is not an issue? Based on Spec's numbers this is about 1,500 which is not insignificant. It's more than half of yearly quota. I am also preplexed why there is CP demand at all? Does anyone in India work for the same company in the same position for a decade? I don't know but it seems unreal

Iatiam

[lville]

"In the December Bulletin, the State Department notes that employment-based adjustment of status filings have steadily increased in recent weeks, warning that if this demand continues, Final Action Dates may be established as early as January 2020 for EB-2 and EB-3 categories that were previously current."


According to this statement from Fragomen, are we to deduce that only EB2 and EB3 that are current (ROW) will retrogress and IT WILL NOT AFFECT EB2-I ?

[jimmys]

I certainly hope it moves along. But why do you say CP is not an issue? Based on Spec's numbers this is about 1,500 which is not insignificant. It's more than half of yearly quota. I am also preplexed why there is CP demand at all? Does anyone in India work for the same company in the same position for a decade? I don't know but it seems unreal

Iatiam

I meant to say if we had 6K horizontal spillover to EB3, the consular processing numbers are only about 25% even at 1500+. If we only get annual quota, the CP numbers are about 55% or so. I just said in comparison.

[jimmys]

"In the December Bulletin, the State Department notes that employment-based adjustment of status filings have steadily increased in recent weeks, warning that if this demand continues, Final Action Dates may be established as early as January 2020 for EB-2 and EB-3 categories that were previously current."


According to this statement from Fragomen, are we to deduce that only EB2 and EB3 that are current (ROW) will retrogress and IT WILL NOT AFFECT EB2-I ?

May or may not affect EB2-I. We don't know yet. It all depends on how the ROW demand materializes for the rest of the FY.

[lville]

May or may not affect EB2-I. We don't know yet. It all depends on how the ROW demand materializes for the rest of the FY.

I just remembered that in October Bulletin it was mentioned that dates for EB2-I may advance upto 1 week. SO far in last 2 bulletins it has moved 4 days. So Hoping that it will at-least move another 3 days to make up that 7 day movement prediction in October bulletin.

[tendlya]

Most available EB3 Visas were consumed by CP, all the Expats (so to say) are returning to US with GCs. You won't see significant movement this FY or in near future.

Do you guys think EB2-I will run into this same issue in future where number CP cases will increase significantly and hence reduce the date movement for EB2-I?

[vsivarama]

May or may not affect EB2-I. We don't know yet. It all depends on how the ROW demand materializes for the rest of the FY.

Does anyone think the extra demand for ROW is probably because of HR1044/S386. There was a lot of talk about the bill getting passed which may have prompted ROW folks to get in the waiting queue at the first chance they got before the bill got approved. Maybe I am reading too much into it.

[jimmys]

Do you guys think EB2-I will run into this same issue in future where number CP cases will increase significantly and hence reduce the date movement for EB2-I?

I don't think there was a spike in the EB-2 India numbers in CP.

[FarAwayfromGC]

I don't think there was a spike in the EB-2 India numbers in CP.


See Specs post in a different thread dedicated to CP numbers

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards/page3

For quick reference (Courtesy Spec) :

Employment Based Year End FY2019

Country --------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total
India ----------- 150 ----- 52 -- 1,681 ---- 119 ---- 502 --- 2,504

I believe EB2 CP numbers will go up but, may not be as steep as EB3 (744 in 2018 against 1681 in 2019).

Spec can shed some light on this.

[Spectator]

The only observation I would make is that the EB3-I Cut Off Date first surpassed July 2007 in April 2018.

I don't believe it is coincidence that CP cases for EB3-I have risen steeply since that time.

In FY2018, the number of CP cases per month tripled in the period March 2018 to August 2018 (September 2018 was retrogressed to Jan 2003) compared to the period October 2017 to February 2018 (when the COD was in late 2006).

Here's the number of EB3-I CP approvals for the last several years.

EB3- India Consular Processing figures

FY2019 - 1,681 (10 months with PD beyond July 2007)
FY2018 --- 747 (5 months with PD beyond July 2007)
FY2017 --- 208
FY2016 --- 158
FY2015 --- 155
FY2014 --- 236

[newsletter1978]

The only observation I would make is that the EB3-I Cut Off Date first surpassed July 2007 in April 2018.

I don't believe it is coincidence that CP cases for EB3-I have risen steeply since that time.

In FY2018, the number of CP cases per month tripled in the period March 2018 to August 2018 (September 2018 was retrogressed to Jan 2003) compared to the period October 2017 to February 2018 (when the COD was in late 2006).

Here's the number of EB3-I CP approvals for the last several years.

EB3- India Consular Processing figures

FY2019 - 1,681 (10 months with PD beyond July 2007)
FY2018 --- 747 (5 months with PD beyond July 2007)
FY2017 --- 208
FY2016 --- 158
FY2015 --- 155
FY2014 --- 236


So we are in fiscal year 2020. Is 1681 number based on calendar year or fiscal year. If that is fiscal year, the assumption is CP has spiked for 2020 as well and that has contributed to EB3I's stalemate. Am i right here?

[tendlya]

The only observation I would make is that the EB3-I Cut Off Date first surpassed July 2007 in April 2018.

I don't believe it is coincidence that CP cases for EB3-I have risen steeply since that time.

In FY2018, the number of CP cases per month tripled in the period March 2018 to August 2018 (September 2018 was retrogressed to Jan 2003) compared to the period October 2017 to February 2018 (when the COD was in late 2006).

Here's the number of EB3-I CP approvals for the last several years.

EB3- India Consular Processing figures

FY2019 - 1,681 (10 months with PD beyond July 2007)
FY2018 --- 747 (5 months with PD beyond July 2007)
FY2017 --- 208
FY2016 --- 158
FY2015 --- 155
FY2014 --- 236


Thanks Spec. This explains why we had spike EB3-I CP cases. Since EB2-I dates are moving at snail pace, I doubt there would be any spike in EB2-I CP cases.

[Moveon]

If you have been wondering if the delays in USCIS processing is real look at this
"Historical National Average Processing Time for All USCIS Offices"
https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/historic-pt

For most of the petitions processing times have doubled since 2015 and in some tripled.

[iatiam]

If you have been wondering if the delays in USCIS processing is real look at this
"Historical National Average Processing Time for All USCIS Offices"
https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/historic-pt

For most of the petitions processing times have doubled since 2015 and in some tripled.

This is ridiculous. Is there some way to make them accountable for this delay.

Iatiam

[Moveon]

This is ridiculous. Is there some way to make them accountable for this delay.

Iatiam

Today got a shocker. I have been tracking the progress for dates daily and have that written out .

Estimated time range-------------------Form type---------------------------------------------Receipt date for a case inquiry
4 Months to 6 Months----------------Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit----------------------June 08, 2019
5.5 Months to 7.5 Months----------- All other applicants for advance parole -----------------------------April 25, 2019

Yesterday , the date for "All other applicants for advance parole" was May 9 , 2019. How did that retrogress? There is no accountability at USCIS what so ever .

I applied for my AP (I have my I-485 pending via EB2-I )renewal on June 15th. I hope I come under "Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit" else I have to wait for 2 more months to get the AP and my current AP just expired.

[anfu02]

I also noticed that today, not sure how it can retrogress. My AP expired August 30th.


Today got a shocker. I have been tracking the progress for dates daily and have that written out .

Estimated time range-------------------Form type---------------------------------------------Receipt date for a case inquiry
4 Months to 6 Months----------------Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit----------------------June 08, 2019
5.5 Months to 7.5 Months----------- All other applicants for advance parole -----------------------------April 25, 2019

Yesterday , the date for "All other applicants for advance parole" was May 9 , 2019. How did that retrogress? There is no accountability at USCIS what so ever .

I applied for my AP (I have my I-485 pending via EB2-I )renewal on June 15th. I hope I come under "Permanent resident applying for a re-entry permit" else I have to wait for 2 more months to get the AP and my current AP just expired.

[rabp77]

I also noticed that today, not sure how it can retrogress. My AP expired August 30th.

"Reentry Permit for Permanent Residents" only applies in case you have the green card, and are leaving the US for an extended period of time. I believe everything else will fall in the other category. Sometimes these dates are not that accurate, as i have friends who applied in mid july and have got it around a week ago.

[Moveon]

I also noticed that today, not sure how it can retrogress. My AP expired August 30th.

They also increased the processing time from 5-7 months to 5.5 to 7.5 months .

If we have to travel to India for an emergency I guess we have to go to a USCIS center and request one ?

[Moveon]

"Reentry Permit for Permanent Residents" only applies in case you have the green card, and are leaving the US for an extended period of time. I believe everything else will fall in the other category. Sometimes these dates are not that accurate, as i have friends who applied in mid july and have got it around a week ago.

@rabp77
Which Center did he apply and how long did he get the AP for (was it just AP or combo card )? Can you please find out . Mine is NSC (Nebraska)

[rabp77]

@rabp77
Which Center did he apply and how long did he get the AP for (was it just AP or combo card )? Can you please find out . Mine is NSC (Nebraska)

this was applied at the Texas service center. Looks like this is a month ahead of Nebraska.

[Moveon]

this was applied at the Texas service center. Looks like this is a month ahead of Nebraska.

Thanks rabp77 . Texas is ahead by 2 months as NSC has retrogressed by a month yesterday . Also how long did he/she get it for and was it a combo card or just AP. Mine is just AP as my AP was given for a year and EAD for 2 .

[excalibur123]

Thanks Spec. This explains why we had spike EB3-I CP cases. Since EB2-I dates are moving at snail pace, I doubt there would be any spike in EB2-I CP cases.

Thanks Spec for providing the context for CP cases. Some of my calcs for EB3 CPs -
Factors
1. Number of EB3 applications filed per month (Aug 2007-Dec2008)
2. Of those how many went back home
3. Of those how many have managed to revive the application
4. Of those how many dependents they have.

Some guesstimates -
1. Best - 250 per month, Worst - 550 (based on old PIs)
2. Best - 30%, Worst - 70%
3. Best - 30%, Worst - 70%
4. Best - 1.25, Worst - 3

I averaged these factors individually and the total for 17 months is - 5312

As per Spec, 2400 of these are already given in last 2 years, so about 2900 more to go. Therefore I believe we should not expect EB3 to move much this year.

[canada]

No matter how much we analyze, the reality is the dates won’t move by leaps and bounds. That’s the truth. It moves by 1-7 days a month. No point in stressing anymore. Just spend an hour on 18th of each month, if your PD is in 2009 in EB2.

[Moveon]

No matter how much we analyze, the reality is the dates won’t move by leaps and bounds. That’s the truth. It moves by 1-7 days a month. No point in stressing anymore. Just spend an hour on 18th of each month, if your PD is in 2009 in EB2.

There was a mention of a spillover of 16K GCs last week . Will that be reflected for this fiscal? If so will EB2-I get any benefit and any Idea on what that number will be ?
Without large spillovers , EB2/EB3-I is doomed.

[Suva2001]

There was a mention of a spillover of 16K GCs last week . Will that be reflected for this fiscal? If so will EB2-I get any benefit and any Idea on what that number will be ?
Without large spillovers , EB2/EB3-I is doomed.

As far as I remember that 16K is coming from family category to EB. In that case EB/EB3 each would receive 4500 for current financial year. That means normal upper limit - 40K would be increased to 44500. So India would get 3100 which would be 300 more than the normal allocation for a year.

Thanks

[iatiam]

As far as I remember that 16K is coming from family category to EB. In that case EB/EB3 each would receive 4500 for current financial year. That means normal upper limit - 40K would be increased to 44500. So India would get 3100 which would be 300 more than the normal allocation for a year.

Thanks

And it also increases EB2ROW SO chances which is more important that the per country allocation. I don't know how the ROW demand will change this FY, but if it remains the same, it would SO to EB2I. CO has been claiming that EB3ROW demand has been increasing so perhaps the chances of EB3 SO are much less.

Iatiam

[idliman]

And it also increases EB2ROW SO chances which is more important that the per country allocation. I don't know how the ROW demand will change this FY, but if it remains the same, it would SO to EB2I. CO has been claiming that EB3ROW demand has been increasing so perhaps the chances of EB3 SO are much less.
Iatiam
I also want to bring to the attention of elimination of I485 concurrent processing by USCIS which is scheduled for APR2020. Hopefully this will have short term positive effects in 2020/2021. RIN 1615-AC22 (https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201910&RIN=1615-AC22&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVRBNE1XRXpNalUwT0RneiIsInQiOiJaej k3VFNhSzB6VExkUkZ5RHM0eU55RzlxdGlPMk9QNUZoUEZmUkQw Qk5HZEN1Q1Z2TUdNWm9QK3IyNVBwQlhmWGVlSGdvc1EyRFd3UG M3NEZNVnB4WWNYRzJHNFp6cDJtZVlHZzFhREFLaXJyQUJiSzFj SUtwQW1teENUQ25sbSJ9) We are gasping for last bit of air here.

[Moveon]

And it also increases EB2ROW SO chances which is more important that the per country allocation. I don't know how the ROW demand will change this FY, but if it remains the same, it would SO to EB2I. CO has been claiming that EB3ROW demand has been increasing so perhaps the chances of EB3 SO are much less.

Iatiam

Just for my understanding. So if there is a SO of 4500 to EB2 would India only get 7% of it if there is greater ROW demand. But if there is no ROW demand , will India get all the extra numbers after China gets 7% was our priority dates are way behind China.

I originally thought that the entire SO goes to the country that is backlogged the most ,

[iatiam]

Just for my understanding. So if there is a SO of 4500 to EB2 would India only get 7% of it if there is greater ROW demand. But if there is no ROW demand , will India get all the extra numbers after China gets 7% was our priority dates are way behind China.

I originally thought that the entire SO goes to the country that is backlogged the most ,

I honestly don't know how it works perhaps someone who knows how SO works can explain it assuming a part of the 4500 numbers SOing. Also it seems the impact won't be that dramatic. Very, very optimistically the dates can breach October 2009 assuming all the visas go to India which isn't going to happen.

Iatiam

[Suva2001]

I honestly don't know how it works perhaps someone who knows how SO works can explain it assuming a part of the 4500 numbers SOing. Also it seems the impact won't be that dramatic. Very, very optimistically the dates can breach October 2009 assuming all the visas go to India which isn't going to happen.

Iatiam

Spillover from family doesn't work exactly same way like spillover from EB category. As example 4500 would be added to EB2 as a whole. That means it would increase total EB2 to 44500 instead of 40,000 for all countries. Each country would receive 3100 for that year. India would only get more than 3100 if there is excess visas from EB2-ROW for that year.

Thanks

[Moveon]

I honestly don't know how it works perhaps someone who knows how SO works can explain it assuming a part of the 4500 numbers SOing. Also it seems the impact won't be that dramatic. Very, very optimistically the dates can breach October 2009 assuming all the visas go to India which isn't going to happen.

Iatiam

Thanks Iatiam. Hopefully someone with knowledge of SO can respond. Yes, even with ~4000 extra green cards we will probably move by a max of 2 months .

[iatiam]

Spillover from family doesn't work exactly same way like spillover from EB category. As example 4500 would be added to EB2 as a whole. That means it would increase total EB2 to 44500 instead of 40,000 for all countries. Each country would receive 3100 for that year. India would only get more than 3100 if there is excess visas from EB2-ROW for that year.

Thanks

I get that part, but then what happens. How is the 4500 split between India and China?

Iatiam

[Moveon]

Spillover from family doesn't work exactly same way like spillover from EB category. As example 4500 would be added to EB2 as a whole. That means it would increase total EB2 to 44500 instead of 40,000 for all countries. Each country would receive 3100 for that year. India would only get more than 3100 if there is excess visas from EB2-ROW for that year.

Thanks

Thanks Suva2001. So for India to get any major benefit ROW must have very low demand this year. Most unlikely

[iatiam]

I also want to bring to the attention of elimination of I485 concurrent processing by USCIS which is scheduled for APR2020. Hopefully this will have short term positive effects in 2020/2021. RIN 1615-AC22 (https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201910&RIN=1615-AC22&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTVRBNE1XRXpNalUwT0RneiIsInQiOiJaej k3VFNhSzB6VExkUkZ5RHM0eU55RzlxdGlPMk9QNUZoUEZmUkQw Qk5HZEN1Q1Z2TUdNWm9QK3IyNVBwQlhmWGVlSGdvc1EyRFd3UG M3NEZNVnB4WWNYRzJHNFp6cDJtZVlHZzFhREFLaXJyQUJiSzFj SUtwQW1teENUQ25sbSJ9) We are gasping for last bit of air here.

Why do you think this would help?

Iatiam

[iatiam]

Thanks Suva2001. So for India to get any major benefit ROW must have very low demand this year. Most unlikely

I don't think it is unlikely. So far ROW demand has been within quota. In the last VB, CO has made a comment about having cut off dates for ROW. Does it mean that it will be sustained throughout the FY, I don't know. As good as economy is doing, it's not doing that well to warrant a huge spike in demand for ROW. Also Spec had pointed out that CO can only allocate visas on a quarterly basis. If the demand stays as-is, we will see some SO.

Iatiam

[Suva2001]

I get that part, but then what happens. How is the 4500 split between India and China?

Iatiam

Are you not reading my whole post? I explained everything.

Thanks

[iatiam]

So where did you explain how the 4,500 is split up and I am assuming that you know how SO works, which is a huge assumption by itself.

[Suva2001]

So where did you explain how the 4,500 is split up and I am assuming that you know how SO works, which is a huge assumption by itself.

Read my original posts. Again sharing my original posts below.

---------------------
1st post -

As far as I remember that 16K is coming from family category to EB. In that case EB/EB3 each would receive 4500 for current financial year. That means normal upper limit - 40K would be increased to 44500. So India would get 3100 which would be 300 more than the normal allocation for a year.

2nd post -

Spillover from family doesn't work exactly same way like spillover from EB category. As example 4500 would be added to EB2 as a whole. That means it would increase total EB2 to 44500 instead of 40,000 for all countries. Each country would receive 3100 for that year. India would only get more than 3100 if there is excess visas from EB2-ROW for that year.
---------------

Did I not mention that 4500 would be added to 40,000 and total would be 44,500 for EB2? 7% of this would be 3100. This would be per country allowed visa for EB2-India. EB2-India would only get extra visas if EB2 has any excess visa. Don't mix up EB2-ROW spillover with family visa spillover. You don't have to believe me as you seem not aware how spillover works. Google and find out.

Thanks

[iatiam]

Read my original posts. Again sharing my original posts below.

---------------------
1st post -

As far as I remember that 16K is coming from family category to EB. In that case EB/EB3 each would receive 4500 for current financial year. That means normal upper limit - 40K would be increased to 44500. So India would get 3100 which would be 300 more than the normal allocation for a year.

2nd post -

Spillover from family doesn't work exactly same way like spillover from EB category. As example 4500 would be added to EB2 as a whole. That means it would increase total EB2 to 44500 instead of 40,000 for all countries. Each country would receive 3100 for that year. India would only get more than 3100 if there is excess visas from EB2-ROW for that year.
---------------

Did I not mention that 4500 would be added to 40,000 and total would be 44,500 for EB2? 7% of this would be 3100. This would be per country allowed visa for EB2-India. EB2-India would only get extra visas if EB2-ROW gives any spill over. Don't mix up EB2-ROW spillover with family visa spillover. You don't have to believe me as you seem not aware how spillover works. Google and find out.

Thanks

Spec has shown in detail how the country cap works on the FB SO. He has a very nice table which illustrates this. You are regurgitating this point.

Specific to my question, if ROW does not consume any of the 4500 visas, how will the 4500 visas be split between the two retrogressed countries - India and China. Will the most retrogressed one get more visas and if so what is the split up. Again, I am looking for someone like Spec to answer this question.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Spec has shown in detail how the country cap works on the FB SO. He has a very nice table which illustrates this. You are regurgitating this point.

Specific to my question, if ROW does not consume any of the 4500 visas, how will the 4500 visas be split between the two retrogressed countries - India and China. Will the most retrogressed one get more visas and if so what is the split up. Again, I am looking for someone like Spec to answer this question.

Iatiam

Let's try to clear this up.

Suva's explanation is correct as to how the spare FB visas from FY2019 are applied in FY2020.

It's incorrect (and confusing) to call it SO. The unused FB visas from FY2019 form part of the calculation for the FY2020 EB allocation.

7% is then applied to the revised allocation figures for FB & EB.

So, as the Annual Numerical Limits FY-2020 document (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Annual%20%20Numerical%20%20Limits%20-%20FY2020.pdf) shows:

The EB allocation for FY2020 (provisionally) is 156,500.

EB1, 2 & 3 each get an allocation of 44,759.

Prorated, the 7% limit in EB1, 2 & 3 would be 3,133 (compared to 2,803) (but remember that's not how the 7% limit is calculated - it's (226,000 + 156,500) *7% = 26,775).

If China, India, Mexico and Philippines each used their full 3,133, then ROW would have 44,759 - (3,133*4) = 32,227 visas (compared to 28,828).
In reality, ROW might have slightly more in EB2 since Mexico and Philippines have not used all available visas historically.
It might be around 3,000 higher based on FY2018 figures (say 35.5k in round figures).

A back of the envelope simplistic calculation says monthly ROW demand would need to be below about 2.4k per month (35.5k / 14 (2 months carried forward from FY2019)) for spare visas to be available within EB2 for retrogressed Countries.
That's somewhat lower than EB2-ROW adjusted average over FY2016 to FY2018 ~2.7k/month.

If any spare visas are available within EB2, all visas first go to the most retrogressed Country (India in this case) until they match the next most retrogressed Country.

CO mentions:


Final Action Dates may be established for one or more categories as early as January 2020 due to unusually heavy demand totaling over 11,000 EB-2 applicants and over 13,000 EB-3 applicants. Charlie noted that if instead the level of demand shows signs that it is subsiding, such that these high numbers merely represent pent up demand from the recent summer retrogressions, these categories could remain current.

in this document (https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/). It's difficult to parse this as normal demand on the same basis is not mentioned.

[Suva2001]

Thanks Spec for explaining in detail. As usual you are awesome.

[jimmys]

Let's try to clear this up.

Suva's explanation is correct as to how the spare FB visas from FY2019 are applied in FY2020.

It's incorrect (and confusing) to call it SO. The unused FB visas from FY2019 form part of the calculation for the FY2020 EB allocation.

7% is then applied to the revised allocation figures for FB & EB.

So, as the Annual Numerical Limits FY-2020 document (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Annual%20%20Numerical%20%20Limits%20-%20FY2020.pdf) shows:

The EB allocation for FY2020 (provisionally) is 156,500.

EB1, 2 & 3 each get an allocation of 44,759.

Prorated, the 7% limit in EB1, 2 & 3 would be 3,133 (compared to 2,803) (but remember that's not how the 7% limit is calculated - it's (226,000 + 156,500) *7% = 26,775).

If China, India, Mexico and Philippines each used their full 3,133, then ROW would have 44,759 - (3,133*4) = 32,227 visas (compared to 28,828).
In reality, ROW might have slightly more in EB2 since Mexico and Philippines have not used all available visas historically.
It might be around 3,000 higher based on FY2018 figures (say 35.5k in round figures).

A back of the envelope simplistic calculation says monthly ROW demand would need to be below about 2.4k per month (35.5k / 14 (2 months carried forward from FY2019)) for spare visas to be available within EB2 for retrogressed Countries.
That's somewhat lower than EB2-ROW adjusted average over FY2016 to FY2018 ~2.7k/month.

If any spare visas are available within EB2, all visas first go to the most retrogressed Country (India in this case) until they match the next most retrogressed Country.

CO mentions:



in this document (https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/). It's difficult to parse this as normal demand on the same basis is not mentioned.

As things stand now, it looks very bleak for EB-3 India. If EB-2 ROW demand subsides, EB-2 will benefit this year.

[excalibur123]

As things stand now, it looks very bleak for EB-3 India. If EB-2 ROW demand subsides, EB-2 will benefit this year.

With EB2s now holding EB3 I-140s too, and the perennial EB3->EB2 porters hanging about (those who cannot use EB3 I-140), EB2 and EB3 are effectively a joint line.

Once EB3 escapes clutches of 2007-08 Consular Processing, the two dates would be much closer, with no category letting the other one get ahead too far.

[Moveon]

Thanks Spec for explaining in detail. As usual you are awesome.

I agree . Explained in such simple words and with examples .
Thanks Spec. You really Rock !

[iatiam]

Let's try to clear this up.

Suva's explanation is correct as to how the spare FB visas from FY2019 are applied in FY2020.

It's incorrect (and confusing) to call it SO. The unused FB visas from FY2019 form part of the calculation for the FY2020 EB allocation.

7% is then applied to the revised allocation figures for FB & EB.

So, as the Annual Numerical Limits FY-2020 document (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Annual%20%20Numerical%20%20Limits%20-%20FY2020.pdf) shows:

The EB allocation for FY2020 (provisionally) is 156,500.

EB1, 2 & 3 each get an allocation of 44,759.

Prorated, the 7% limit in EB1, 2 & 3 would be 3,133 (compared to 2,803) (but remember that's not how the 7% limit is calculated - it's (226,000 + 156,500) *7% = 26,775).

If China, India, Mexico and Philippines each used their full 3,133, then ROW would have 44,759 - (3,133*4) = 32,227 visas (compared to 28,828).
In reality, ROW might have slightly more in EB2 since Mexico and Philippines have not used all available visas historically.
It might be around 3,000 higher based on FY2018 figures (say 35.5k in round figures).

A back of the envelope simplistic calculation says monthly ROW demand would need to be below about 2.4k per month (35.5k / 14 (2 months carried forward from FY2019)) for spare visas to be available within EB2 for retrogressed Countries.
That's somewhat lower than EB2-ROW adjusted average over FY2016 to FY2018 ~2.7k/month.

If any spare visas are available within EB2, all visas first go to the most retrogressed Country (India in this case) until they match the next most retrogressed Country.

CO mentions:



in this document (https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/). It's difficult to parse this as normal demand on the same basis is not mentioned.

Thanks Spec, much appreciated

[iatiam]

Does any one have more info on USCIS Spring agenda. I am read somewhere about some interesting ones,

1. H4EAD removal
2. Wage restrictions and specialized occupation restriction on L-1 applicants

While H4EAD removal would be a disappointment, I for one supports L-1 restrictions. A large number of applicants from India will not qualify under H1B due to wage and speciality occupation but they easily do L-1A and get GC much faster. This is a much needed reform in my opinion.

Of course near-term impact would be minimal but medium-term the EB1C line would be more restrictive.

Iatiam

[Ramsen]

H4-EAD removal rule making is going on past 2 years. So we never know the outcome unless it really comes.
QUOTE=iatiam;63393]Does any one have more info on USCIS Spring agenda. I am read somewhere about some interesting ones,

1. H4EAD removal
2. Wage restrictions and specialized occupation restriction on L-1 applicants

While H4EAD removal would be a disappointment, I for one supports L-1 restrictions. A large number of applicants from India will not qualify under H1B due to wage and speciality occupation but they easily do L-1A and get GC much faster. This is a much needed reform in my opinion.

Of course near-term impact would be minimal but medium-term the EB1C line would be more restrictive.

Iatiam[/QUOTE

[anfu02]

I also noticed that today, not sure how it can retrogress. My AP expired August 30th.

From Trackitt, Someone who filed for AP in Apr 2019 just got their AP approved on Nov 22nd. Not looking good.

[Moveon]

From Trackitt, Someone who filed for AP in Apr 2019 just got their AP approved on Nov 22nd. Not looking good.

Yes Nebraska is having a ~8 month processing time. They are at May 8th now. There is absolutely no accountability at USCIS now, how can an AP renewal take so long when it took less than 2 months 3 years ago

[excalibur123]

Yes Nebraska is having a ~8 month processing time. They are at May 8th now. There is absolutely no accountability at USCIS now, how can an AP renewal take so long when it took less than 2 months 3 years ago

Is it possible to travel and come back if the AP is valid, even though request for renewal is pending?

I have seen conflicting opinions on that - believe it was a murthy article which stated we can.

If it is allowed then if one files renewal 6 months before expiry, they can minimize the blackout period even with such delays. (8 months - 6 = 2 months)

[anfu02]

Yes, you can travel while your AP is pending as long as the current one is still valid.

https://www.murthy.com/2019/03/11/uscis-revises-policy-on-travel-while-ap-is-pending/

[jimmys]

Is it possible to travel and come back if the AP is valid, even though request for renewal is pending?

I have seen conflicting opinions on that - believe it was a murthy article which stated we can.

If it is allowed then if one files renewal 6 months before expiry, they can minimize the blackout period even with such delays. (8 months - 6 = 2 months)

Scenario 1: AP renewal pending and your current AP is valid, you can travel abroad and comeback on current AP before its expiry. You can also enter on a non-immigrant visa if you choose to. Your pending AP renewal is not abandoned.

Scenario 2: AP renewal pending and you travel abroad. Then, if your current AP expires while you're abroad, you may choose to enter on a non-immigrant visa. In this scenario your pending AP renewal is abandoned and you have to reapply again while you're in US.

Scenario 3: AP renewal pending and your current AP expired already. You may choose to travel and come back on a non-immigrant visa. But, your pending AP renewal is most likely abandoned. If abandoned, you have to reapply again while you're in US. March 2019 memo says otherwise, though.

This is what I got when I talked to a lawyer.

[Moveon]

Scenario 1: AP renewal pending and your current AP is valid, you can travel abroad and comeback on current AP before its expiry. You can also enter on a non-immigrant visa if you choose to. Your pending AP renewal is not abandoned.

Scenario 2: AP renewal pending and you travel abroad. Then, if your current AP expires while you're abroad, you may choose to enter on a non-immigrant visa. In this scenario your pending AP renewal is abandoned and you have to reapply again while you're in US.

Scenario 3: AP renewal pending and your current AP expired already. You may choose to travel and come back on a non-immigrant visa. But, your pending AP renewal is most likely abandoned. If abandoned, you have to reapply again while you're in US. March 2019 memo says otherwise, though.

This is what I got when I talked to a lawyer.


There is Confusion because late 2017 the administration secretly passed a directive rendering pending AP applications as void if one travelled outside the US even with a Valid AP (IOWs you cannot travel when AP is pending). This was not notified to all USCIS employees, nor was a bulletin issued . I travelled to India Summer of 2018 but before that I went to the USCIS office and asked the officer if I could travel as I had heard some forums discussing this new draconian law . The lady told me that it was all false and my travel was safe as along I returned before My current AP expired. I visted India for 2 weeks , came back and in about 4 weeks I got a letter that my AP was denied due to travel when AP was in process . They clearly put my dates of travel too. I had to reapply and thankfully the AP came in 2 months . The downside My EAD card is 2 years but AP is 1 year and no combo card. However the USCIS reversed the decision a few months ago .

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/travel-documents/emergency-travel

If you file Form I-131, Application for Travel Document, to request an advance parole document and depart the United States without possession of an advance parole document that is valid for the entire time you are abroad, your Form I-131 will be considered abandoned. At times, an individual may have an approved advance parole document while a second one is pending. Individuals may travel on the approved advanced parole document, provided the document is valid for the entire duration of the time abroad. The pending Form I-131 will not be considered abandoned in this situation.

So looks like its safe to travel, but you cannot trust the USCIS as rules these days can change according to the whims and fancies of these officials .

Anyway I applied mine 6 months ago and they are still processing applications from May 9th . My Ap has expired and can't travel.

[Dondraper]

travelling will invalidate the pending AP as per the new administration. A current valid AP is good for travel.

[Moveon]

travelling will invalidate the pending AP as per the new administration. A current valid AP is good for travel.

Hi @Dondraper , Please read my post (the one before yours) . They reversed that rule a few months ago. I have pasted the USCIS link too - https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/travel-documents/emergency-travel

[IamGSN]

Hi, Have a general question. hopefully I will receive my EAD and Parole document in couple of months. Using that, can I travel outside of US and come back, or really it has to be on emergency situation only, do I need to show supporting document explaining emergency situation at port of entry in US?

2nd Question, if I travel on Parole and return to US, will my H1B visa considered cancelled ?

[Moveon]

Hi, Have a general question. hopefully I will receive my EAD and Parole document in couple of months. Using that, can I travel outside of US and come back, or really it has to be on emergency situation only, do I need to show supporting document explaining emergency situation at port of entry in US?

2nd Question, if I travel on Parole and return to US, will my H1B visa considered cancelled ?

Answer to your first Q - With a valid AP you can travel and return to the US. Just make sure the AP is valid for the whole duration of travel. You can travel for any reason . I have done a few in teh past i.e vacation, work etc. No restrictions .

Answer to your second Q : There is no impact on your HIB. But when you return , if your HIB is not stamped on your passport your will be paroled into the US. Not an issue , except that you will need to go to secondary immigration where the wait can be as long as 4 hrs. Its just a wait , to make it as hard on you

[qesehmk]

Hi, Have a general question. hopefully I will receive my EAD and Parole document in couple of months. Using that, can I travel outside of US and come back, or really it has to be on emergency situation only, do I need to show supporting document explaining emergency situation at port of entry in US?

2nd Question, if I travel on Parole and return to US, will my H1B visa considered cancelled ?
It's been very long time I had done this ... almost 10 years... but i believe the situation hasn't changed at all ... so I am answering this.

1) You can use AP for any reason. Doesn't need to be emergency. So travel worry free. No need to explain anything to anybody unless specifically asked.
2) AP by definition maintains whatever your last status was before you left US. So if your prior status was 485 only ...it will continue. If it was dual status H1B and 485 pending then that will continue. Even otherwise ... lets say you have a new H1B approval but do not have a stamp in your passport, it really does not matter. Acquiring H1B only requires intent if you are in the US. In other words ... you simply start using it. I don't think your lawyer even has to declare that to USCIS or DoS.

So relax ... enjoy and come back worry free!

[mcmilers]

Answer to your first Q - With a valid AP you can travel and return to the US. Just make sure the AP is valid for the whole duration of travel. You can travel for any reason . I have done a few in teh past i.e vacation, work etc. No restrictions .

Answer to your second Q : There is no impact on your HIB. But when you return , if your HIB is not stamped on your passport your will be paroled into the US. Not an issue , except that you will need to go to secondary immigration where the wait can be as long as 4 hrs. Its just a wait , to make it as hard on you

I've been using AP for last 7 years to get in the country but never waited more than 20-30 mins in secondary.

[Moveon]

I've been using AP for last 7 years to get in the country but never waited more than 20-30 mins in secondary.

My Last 3 were terrible . last one was 3.5 hrs at SFO. Before was about 3 and 2
Where did you enter ?

[IamGSN]

It's been very long time I had done this ... almost 10 years... but i believe the situation hasn't changed at all ... so I am answering this.

1) You can use AP for any reason. Doesn't need to be emergency. So travel worry free. No need to explain anything to anybody unless specifically asked.
2) AP by definition maintains whatever your last status was before you left US. So if your prior status was 485 only ...it will continue. If it was dual status H1B and 485 pending then that will continue. Even otherwise ... lets say you have a new H1B approval but do not have a stamp in your passport, it really does not matter. Acquiring H1B only requires intent if you are in the US. In other words ... you simply start using it. I don't think your lawyer even has to declare that to USCIS or DoS.

So relax ... enjoy and come back worry free!

Thanks a lot to Q, Moven and others, for detailed explanation. I am going to travel after many years, this gives lots of confidence.

[Moveon]

Thanks a lot to Q, Moven and others, for detailed explanation. I am going to travel after many years, this gives lots of confidence.

Anytime. Just remember that you will not be able to clear immigration at the first counter. They will finger print you and send you to secondary immigration where you will need to provide your AP, passport and drivers license(or any other Govt issued id). Its just the wait in that room that is a killer but they don't ask you any Qs . Your I-94 will be stamped for only one year , but as your are on AP the i-94 is more of a formality and you can stay over that period. I have been using AP for the last 8 years .

[mcmilers]

My Last 3 were terrible . last one was 3.5 hrs at SFO. Before was about 3 and 2
Where did you enter ?
Hi Moveon,
I've used AP at DFW, ORD, and AUH (twice). Have a India trip planned for this month, coming back in Jan, port of entry is DTW, hopefully if wouldn't be that bad (fingers crossed).

[Moveon]

Hi Moveon,
I've used AP at DFW, ORD, and AUH (twice). Have a India trip planned for this month, coming back in Jan, port of entry is DTW, hopefully if wouldn't be that bad (fingers crossed).

I suppose DFW has less immigrants coming in vs SFO . Its just that over that last 2-3 years they have gotten very strict about people with sketchy papers. Its a single Q with no priority for people who have all the paper work . They have just 2 people working the Q and its like a Head of Line blocking issue.
I suppose lot of folks with sketchy papers try to enter via SF hoping that its a more lenient entry point. There are people sitting on the floor and the hallways .

[Umesh1209]

I received an RFE email. My PD is 21-Dec-2009. Any one received RFE recently? I did submit my Supplement J 6 months back

[Moveon]

I received an RFE email. My PD is 21-Dec-2009. Any one received RFE recently? I did submit my Supplement J 6 months back

Hi Umesh, what is the RFE for ? Medicals / Supplement J ?
Did you change jobs ?

[Umesh1209]

I got an email today. I don't know the details. I got a promotion earlier this year and filed a supplement J 6 months back. The RFE is for my 485 case not my supplement J case.

[imdeng]

I have passed through DTW on AP multiple times. Immigrant traffic volume at DTW is lower compared to places like SFO/ORD - and I have not had any trouble at all. Wait times for secondary processing are on the order of 20min to 1hour - but more often on the lower side of the scale.


Hi Moveon,
I've used AP at DFW, ORD, and AUH (twice). Have a India trip planned for this month, coming back in Jan, port of entry is DTW, hopefully if wouldn't be that bad (fingers crossed).

[asankaran]

Hi folks,

I would like to know if anyone in this forum has applied for EAD for minor based on parent's Adjustment of Status. If so could you please share your experiences and any special documents you may need to submit.

Thanks.

[harapatha]

One of my friends has gotten an Approved PERM and is about to file for 140 this month (His EB3 PD is late jun 09). PERM was done based on the assumption that it'd be for EB2

So,

Can he file under multiple visa categories this month - EB2 and EB3+485 based one the same original PERM? (as he can file for 485 along with EB3-I for Dec, based on "filing" date)

although USCIS says its possible, under "If You Want USCIS to Consider Multiple Visa Categories for a Beneficiary" -- https://www.uscis.gov/forms/petition-filing-and-processing-procedures-form-i-140-immigrant-petition-alien-worker#Requesting

the example they take is for EB1 and EB2NIW - both of which do NOT need PERM

and hence my Q on EB2,EB3 (since they need PERM)

many thanks!

[idliman]

I got an email today. I don't know the details. I got a promotion earlier this year and filed a supplement J 6 months back. The RFE is for my 485 case not my supplement J case.
As discussed earlier, I also got an RFE for I485J. Don't worry it is a standard procedure unless they don't agree to AC21 justification. As I485J gets its own receipt number, you can check the status and see if it has been approved or not. Usually, the I485J RFE is for:
1. I-693 Medicals
2. G-325A Biographic Information Form
3. G-28 Form (if attorney had changed)
4. I485 Supp J (if you had used AC21)
5. Any other concerns or supporting info asked in RFE.
Get ready for your medicals. If you have not taken the flu shot for this season do it. All the vaccinations need to be current for medicals.

[paramjit74]

Hi folks,

I would like to know if anyone in this forum has applied for EAD for minor based on parent's Adjustment of Status. If so could you please share your experiences and any special documents you may need to submit.

Thanks.

If there is 485 pending for the child then he/she can get EAD.

[jimmys]

As discussed earlier, I also got an RFE for I485J. Don't worry it is a standard procedure unless they don't agree to AC21 justification. As I485J gets its own receipt number, you can check the status and see if it has been approved or not. Usually, the I485J RFE is for:
1. I-693 Medicals
2. G-325A Biographic Information Form
3. G-28 Form (if attorney had changed)
4. I485 Supp J (if you had used AC21)
5. Any other concerns or supporting info asked in RFE.
Get ready for your medicals. If you have not taken the flu shot for this season do it. All the vaccinations need to be current for medicals.

He mentioned his RFE is not for 485J. It's for 485 itself.

[idliman]

He mentioned his RFE is not for 485J. It's for 485 itself. Sorry. Missed that detail. If an existing I485 case is suddenly getting an RFE, then I can think of a) USCIS wants some justification regarding status for a particular period, b)The new officer wants some extra documentation for say BC/medicals c) They want more clarification / justification for AC21 porting job classification... Any other ideas?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Sorry. Missed that detail. If an existing I485 case is suddenly getting an RFE, then I can think of a) USCIS wants some justification regarding status for a particular period, b)The new officer wants some extra documentation for say BC/medicals c) They want more clarification / justification for AC21 porting job classification... Any other ideas?

Dates moving forward?

(/s, *ducks*)

[Moveon]

As discussed earlier, I also got an RFE for I485J. Don't worry it is a standard procedure unless they don't agree to AC21 justification. As I485J gets its own receipt number, you can check the status and see if it has been approved or not. Usually, the I485J RFE is for:
1. I-693 Medicals
2. G-325A Biographic Information Form
3. G-28 Form (if attorney had changed)
4. I485 Supp J (if you had used AC21)
5. Any other concerns or supporting info asked in RFE.
Get ready for your medicals. If you have not taken the flu shot for this season do it. All the vaccinations need to be current for medicals.

Hi idliman,
When was the last time you got an RFE ? In Sept of 2018 USCIS sent out RFEs for those who got EADs in 2012 . Is this a second wave

[idliman]

Hi idliman,
When was the last time you got an RFE ? In Sept of 2018 USCIS sent out RFEs for those who got EADs in 2012 . Is this a second wave
No. Mine was due to filing AC21/I485J. I am in Texas Service Center. As far as I know all the pending I485 in Nebraska Service Center got RFEs around that time frame. My friend with PD in early 2010 got it. AFAIK, TSC did not issue mass RFEs for pending I485s.

[Moveon]

No. Mine was due to filing AC21/I485J. I am in Texas Service Center. As far as I know all the pending I485 in Nebraska Service Center got RFEs around that time frame. My friend with PD in early 2010 got it. AFAIK, TSC did not issue mass RFEs for pending I485s.

thanks idliman . Just make sure you file within 60 days of the Doctor signing it. Medicals are valid for 2 years now .
The updated policy, which goes into effect on Nov. 1, 2018, will require applicants to submit a Form I-693 that is signed by a civil surgeon no more than 60 days before filing the underlying application for an immigration benefit. The Form I-693 would remain valid for a two-year period following the date the civil surgeon signed it.

https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/uscis-policy-manual-update

[Umesh1209]

Thanks for your clarification

[idliman]

The forum is very quiet regarding predictions. Any predictions for Jan Visa bulletin that is coming out anytime? Some optimistic people are predicting movement (FB visa spillover?). However, nothing has materialized so far. Come on people spill the beans!

[sk1879]

The forum is very quiet regarding predictions. Any predictions for Jan Visa bulletin that is coming out anytime? Some optimistic people are predicting movement (FB visa spillover?). However, nothing has materialized so far. Come on people spill the beans!

Expecting at least a week of movement for EB2-I and a month for EB3-I due to the FB Spillover. Am i being too optimistic?

[anfu02]

thanks idliman . Just make sure you file within 60 days of the Doctor signing it. Medicals are valid for 2 years now .
The updated policy, which goes into effect on Nov. 1, 2018, will require applicants to submit a Form I-693 that is signed by a civil surgeon no more than 60 days before filing the underlying application for an immigration benefit. The Form I-693 would remain valid for a two-year period following the date the civil surgeon signed it.

https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/uscis-policy-manual-update

Any traction on your Advance Parole application?

[Blue_fairy]

EB2 will move by 3 days.


The forum is very quiet regarding predictions. Any predictions for Jan Visa bulletin that is coming out anytime? Some optimistic people are predicting movement (FB visa spillover?). However, nothing has materialized so far. Come on people spill the beans!

[canada]

The forum is very quiet regarding predictions. Any predictions for Jan Visa bulletin that is coming out anytime? Some optimistic people are predicting movement (FB visa spillover?). However, nothing has materialized so far. Come on people spill the beans!

We simply do not have the pending inventory report. The last one is from July 2018. No offense to anyone but when the predictions are done here- no matter how many times you chew the same old information- the Priority dates are not moving anymore. They may move few days, even with FB spillover, probably a week at best. We are into 2020 in 2 weeks and dates are going to not go past beyond 2009 for the next 5 years. That’s the reality

[jimmys]

Speaking of FB spillover, if EB2 WW demand is close to last year's, then EB2 India may see a couple of months movement late in this FY. If that happens it's going to be in Apr-June quarter. But, CO talked about EB2 WW demand at 11K in the first 45 days or so of this FY. So let's wait and watch.

CO also said EB3 WW demand is at 13K in the first 45 days of this FY. This is not a good sign for EB3 India. CO already talked about retrogressing EB3 WW in Jan. I hope the 13K demand is due to retrogression from last year and there's no retrogression in EB3 WW dates in Jan (or this FY).

Also, Oct CP processing had about 200 cases for EB3 India. Hopefully this is just pent up demand from last year due to retrogression.

[newsletter1978]

Speaking of FB spillover, if EB2 WW demand is close to last year's, then EB2 India may see a couple of months movement late in this FY. If that happens it's going to be in Apr-June quarter. But, CO talked about EB2 WW demand at 11K in the first 45 days or so of this FY. So let's wait and watch.

CO also said EB3 WW demand is at 13K in the first 45 days of this FY. This is not a good sign for EB3 India. CO already talked about retrogressing EB3 WW in Jan. I hope the 13K demand is due to retrogression from last year and there's no retrogression in EB3 WW dates in Jan (or this FY).

Also, Oct CP processing had about 200 cases for EB3 India. Hopefully this is just pent up demand from last year due to retrogression.

Jimmy, hope EB2I moves couple of months as you say. If it moves how many months are you talking about. Would you expect to clear September?

[sk1879]

Expecting the EB2-I dates to move by a week if the FB spillover is used in this quarter. and EB3-I as usual might stay at the same date for this quarter as well.

[Moveon]

Any traction on your Advance Parole application?

Hi Anfu02 ,
No its still saying "Received" . The current processing date is May 16th for NSC. I applied on June 15th .
It now officially taking 8 months at NSC to issue an AP that lasts for 12 months.

[Moveon]

We simply do not have the pending inventory report. The last one is from July 2018. No offense to anyone but when the predictions are done here- no matter how many times you chew the same old information- the Priority dates are not moving anymore. They may move few days, even with FB spillover, probably a week at best. We are into 2020 in 2 weeks and dates are going to not go past beyond 2009 for the next 5 years. That’s the reality

I feel that it will take a minimum 3 years from now to clear 2009 even with some spillovers. EB3 porting may not impact us much as they will go hand in hand .
Sad but true..

[canada]

We are ever hopeful something good will happen next, next, next, next visa bulletin, year ..... I think 2023- we will still be clearing 2009 with some random excuse ahem... reason/ theory with no basis. The situation is intended to make it as if uneducated people come to Dubai to work with no path to citizenship... the difference here being educated waiting decades in line hoping to get the greencard.

[anfu02]

Hi Anfu02 ,
No its still saying "Received" . The current processing date is May 16th for NSC. I applied on June 15th .
It now officially taking 8 months at NSC to issue an AP that lasts for 12 months.

Thanks for the reply. I am religiously following the receipt dates as well, question was more out of desperation. Unfortunately, there is no recourse. You can't expedite the application, can't appear for Infopass appointment unless there is an emergency. Just wait and watch.

[Moveon]

Thanks for the reply. I am religiously following the receipt dates as well, question was more out of desperation. Unfortunately, there is no recourse. You can't expedite the application, can't appear for Infopass appointment unless there is an emergency. Just wait and watch.

Yes , it is very painful. Imagine having an emergency on Friday evening and you can't get an apt till Monday. If it is a long weekend then Its even longer . The USCIS wants to make life hell for immigrants hoping that people will abandon their plans just out the feeling of hopelessness. Neither Democrats nor Republicans care .

[Moveon]

Yes , it is very painful. Imagine having an emergency on Friday evening and you can't get an apt till Monday. If it is a long weekend then Its even longer . The USCIS wants to make life hell for immigrants hoping that people will abandon their plans just out the feeling of hopelessness. Neither Democrats nor Republicans care .

I was looking at the EAD renewals. From what I see it is taking 6 months at NSC . So if you don't file on the very first day then you risk being out of status . They are processing June 21st as of today at NSC for EADs.

[tendlya]

I was looking at the EAD renewals. From what I see it is taking 6 months at NSC . So if you don't file on the very first day then you risk being out of status . They are processing June 21st as of today at NSC for EADs.

Is it possible to send renewal application more than 6 months before the expiry of EAD/AP cards?

[Moveon]

Is it possible to send renewal application more than 6 months before the expiry of EAD/AP cards?

No its 180 days strict. It was 120 before .

[Umesh1209]

Want to provide an update regarding RFE. My 485J is approved. I and my wife received RFE for medical n biographic sheet.

[Moveon]

Want to provide an update regarding RFE. My 485J is approved. I and my wife received RFE for medical n biographic sheet.

Hi Umesh,

1. when did you last submit your medicals .
2. When you file the Supplement J , do you get a formal letter saying its approved ?
3. Which Service center is your application and the Priority date

For RFEs there is no acknowledgement I understand for Supplement J and Medicals.

Can you plz share more info ,

[paramjit74]

I was looking at the EAD renewals. From what I see it is taking 6 months at NSC . So if you don't file on the very first day then you risk being out of status . They are processing June 21st as of today at NSC for EADs.

Once you file for extension before expiry, your EAD is automatically extended for 180 days -

https://www.uscis.gov/working-united-states/automatic-employment-authorization-document-ead-extension

[Moveon]

Once you file for extension before expiry, your EAD is automatically extended for 180 days -

https://www.uscis.gov/working-united-states/automatic-employment-authorization-document-ead-extension

Thanks Paramjit. I had read that but some of the employers create a fuss about it . While they might still be OK (requires you to talk to HR and get an exemption), getting a refi on your home or getting any loan with an expired EAD or nearly expiring EAD is next to impossible .

[Umesh1209]

My response below
Hi Umesh,

1. when did you last submit your medicals .
Umesh: Last time I submitted medical is 2012

2. When you file the Supplement J , do you get a formal letter saying its approved ?
Umesh: I submitted supplement J in June’19. We get a receipt letter as well as an approval. I got this approval last week
3. Which Service center is your application and the Priority date
Umesh: mine is TSC, 22-Dec-2009

For RFEs there is no acknowledgement I understand for Supplement J and Medicals.

Can you plz share more info ,

[Moveon]

My response below

Thanks Umesh. I had submitted by Supplement J at NSC but received no approval . The lawyers "BAL in my case" told me that USCIS does not give any approvals for RFEs . I had submitted medicals and the supplement J together last September .

[Moveon]

Thanks Umesh. I had submitted by Supplement J at NSC but received no approval . The lawyers "BAL in my case" told me that USCIS does not give any approvals for RFEs . I had submitted medicals and the supplement J together last September .

Here is what it says on my case status online:

On October XX, 2018, we received your response to our Request for Evidence for your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Receipt Number LINXXXXXX. USCIS has begun working on your case again. We will send you a decision or notify you if we need something from you. If you move, go to www.uscis.gov/addresschange to give us your new mailing address.

[anfu02]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-january-2020.html

Jan visa bulletin out

[optimista]

Disappointing, as usual

[Umesh1209]

Here is what it says on my case status online:

On October XX, 2018, we received your response to our Request for Evidence for your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Receipt Number LINXXXXXX. USCIS has begun working on your case again. We will send you a decision or notify you if we need something from you. If you move, go to www.uscis.gov/addresschange to give us your new mailing address.
May you will not an approval if you submit with RFE

[sk1879]

Very disappointing Jan bulletin, not sure why the SO from FB is not being applied yet :-(. Looks like a very deliberated efforts are being made to slow down GC approvals. Without pending inventory being published it will be same way like 1 or 2 days movement per bulletin for this FY

[EB32010]

FAD for EB3 WW is Current while DF for EB3 is 1 Jan 2019. Can someone explain why that's the case? It doesn't make sense to me.

[jimmys]

FAD for EB3 WW is Current while DF for EB3 is 1 Jan 2019. Can someone explain why that's the case? It doesn't make sense to me.

That's a good catch.

[idliman]

Looks like EB3I will be moving three weeks per month in future bulletins. EB2 / EB3 ROW are all current.

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)
Employment First:
WORLDWIDE: Rapid forward movement expected, potentially becoming Current
China: Up to three weeks
India: Little if any forward movement is expected

Employment Second:
Worldwide: A date will most likely be imposed at some point during the second half of the fiscal year
China: Up to one month
India: Up to one week

Employment Third:
Worldwide: A date will most likely be imposed no later than March
China: Up to six weeks
India: Up to three weeks
Mexico: Will remain at the Worldwide date
Philippines: Up to one month

[lville]

Looks like EB3I will be moving three weeks per month in future bulletins. EB2 / EB3 ROW are all current.

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)
Employment First:
WORLDWIDE: Rapid forward movement expected, potentially becoming Current
China: Up to three weeks
India: Little if any forward movement is expected

Employment Second:
Worldwide: A date will most likely be imposed at some point during the second half of the fiscal year
China: Up to one month
India: Up to one week

Employment Third:
Worldwide: A date will most likely be imposed no later than March
China: Up to six weeks
India: Up to three weeks
Mexico: Will remain at the Worldwide date
Philippines: Up to one month

I may be wrong but it says it in coming months not per month. They used the same language in October bulletin for EB2 I and it moved 1 week in last quarter ( 1 day, 3 days and then 3 days for Jan 2020 bulletin). So I guess they are predicting that each of these category movement for coming quarter. That’s what I’m gathering from their message.

[IamGSN]

what is the reason for EB3-India to move upto 3 weeks next month, but not this month? Is the prediction just based on usage of yearly visa allocation since there is no spillover ?

[jimmys]

what is the reason for EB3-India to move upto 3 weeks next month, but not this month? Is the prediction just based on usage of yearly visa allocation since there is no spillover ?

It's indeed within yearly visa allocation. If they have priority dates for EB3 ROW in the coming months, EB3 India will end up with only 7% i.e. 3K visas for this year.

[NJMavarick]

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2019.pdf

Q, Spec - Insights?

[IamGSN]

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2019.pdf

Q, Spec - Insights?

If I understand correctly from the link ;

These many people have filed I-485 and waiting for approval:

EB2 - India 15,651 (Prior to July 1st 2009)
EB3 - India 20,751 (Feb 1st 2010)

It doesn't reflect correct numbers for EB3 if there were not much people prior to Jun 2009. And this figure doesn't include consular processing numbers. Scary... big backlog with no spillover

[mrperfect]

If I understand correctly from the link ;

These many people have filed I-485 and waiting for approval:

EB2 - India 15,651 (Prior to July 1st 2009)
EB3 - India 20,751 (Feb 1st 2010)

It doesn't reflect correct numbers for EB3 if there were not much people prior to Jun 2009. And this figure doesn't include consular processing numbers. Scary... big backlog with no spillover

I believe the pending applications for EB2 India are up until Feb 2010

[EB32010]

If I understand correctly from the link ;

These many people have filed I-485 and waiting for approval:

EB2 - India 15,651 (Prior to July 1st 2009)
EB3 - India 20,751 (Feb 1st 2010)

It doesn't reflect correct numbers for EB3 if there were not much people prior to Jun 2009. And this figure doesn't include consular processing numbers. Scary... big backlog with no spillover

These numbers does not make any sense to me. If indeed EB3 waiting list in 20,751, the PD should be way back in 2006 or 2007 or something. Not at 2009. Something doesn't add up.

[NJMavarick]

These numbers does not make any sense to me. If indeed EB3 waiting list in 20,751, the PD should be way back in 2006 or 2007 or something. Not at 2009. Something doesn't add up.

Yup! Big backlog...waiting for other gurus to make sense of this.

[qesehmk]

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2019.pdf

Q, Spec - Insights?

My quick reaction is:
1) These are just the CP numbers .... i.e. people who file for GC outside United States (99.99% in their own home country).
2) The CP numbers are growing at 5% per year when the GC quota has been stationary for years. That is quite telling.
3) The EB1 and EB5 categories have come under tremendous stress. Even Indians are significantly filing in EB5. EB1 is already heavily dominated by Indians. The chinese are doing terrible in EB5 because the last I remember they were pretty much banned under EB5. I haven't quite followed if that is still true.
4) Across the board ROW numbers too are increasing ... partly due to a healthy US economy.
5) Last and most important EB2 and EB3 India numbers are increasing as people are forced to go back to India as well as choosing to go back to India while the employers are willing to keep sponsoring.

Hope this helps.

[jimmys]

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2019.pdf

Q, Spec - Insights?

Something is really amiss. EB2 India 15K, EB3 India 20K, and EB1 India only 1282.

If it's just before Nov 1,2019 PDs, it's unbelievable to see 15K EB2 are still pending before May,2009 and 20K EB3 are pending before Jan 1,2009. If so, why the dates are even in 2009?

If it's only the filed applications, in which EB2 till May 1,2010 and EB3 till Apr 1,2010, then it short of makes some sense. Then, EB1 India filed applications can't be 1282 as mentioned in the report. CO himself told a couple of months ago that EB1 has about 17K applications pending.

Things don't add up as is. I don't know how to interpret these numbers.

[anfu02]

Can you travel on AP after your priority date becomes current? My lawyer recommends against that. In the event your GC is approved while you are away, the lawyer said you may be denied re-entry. Is that true? One of my friend was in a similar situation 5 years ago and she re-entered on AP after GC approval. Is this a recent change? do any of you have personal experience?

Thanks