EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[canada]

there is no Eb2/3 line of india. its two long lines where everyone steps to the fastest line and than if the next one gets faster they step to that one. so all lines become slower cause everyone is in every line. its like the matrix neo is everywhere

Still can't understand why the USCIS weed out two applications or treat a candidate with a PD in EB2 and EB3 as one application

[canada]

A couple of explanations:

1. There are folks with both EB3 and EB2 I-140's in the months of April, May and June 2009. It is possible they are getting GCs in the EB3 category and not EB2. Also the reason EB2 is trudging along 3 days a month.
2. Not every EB3 applicant ported to EB2. There are a few people who have not and they probably have spouse+children also filing in EB3.

What's astounding is that, us desis found a way to file for GC in the peak of great recession :). Between EB2 and EB3, the average filings per month may have taken some dip during the time, but does not reflect the overall job loss around that time.

I agree that the GC filings were really aggressive between April, May, June of 2009 and remember those times in 2009 when everything appeared gloomy as far as economy was concerned but I still think one line is empty if the other line is clogged up and the dates are not moving faster in the empty line, in fact its retrogressed:confused:

[karukon]

Posting here for better visibility, any inputs:

Field 485 back in 2012. Working on EAD since 2014. I work in a different location than where my perm was filed and indicated. I understand GC is for future job. But is there any risk working at different location than the one mentioned in perm ? Appreciate any inputs.

Thanks in advance.

[IamGSN]

As EB-3 India is retrogressed, any idea how much EB-3 India will move forward in October 2019 bulletin?

[idliman]

Posting here for better visibility, any inputs:

Field 485 back in 2012. Working on EAD since 2014. I work in a different location than where my perm was filed and indicated. I understand GC is for future job. But is there any risk working at different location than the one mentioned in perm ? Appreciate any inputs.

Thanks in advance.
You have NOT clearly stated whether you are working for the same company and in the same job description that filed for your PERM & I140? I believe we had a similar question earlier in this forum. For AC21, location change should not affect your AOS. As you are on EAD, you don't need to do H1B amendment for location change. You may need to file an AR-11 form and you might get an RFE for I-485 Supplement J. Consult with your attorney on the best strategy.

Updated:
If you decide to file I-485 Supp J, then an AR-11 may not be needed.

[karukon]

You have NOT clearly stated whether you are working for the same company and in the same job description that filed for your PERM & I140? I believe we had a similar question earlier in this forum. For AC21, location change should not affect your AOS. As you are on EAD, you don't need to do H1B amendment for location change. You may need to file an AR-11 form and you might get an RFE for I-485 Supplement J. Consult with your attorney on the best strategy.

Updated:
If you decide to file I-485 Supp J, then an AR-11 may not be needed.

Thanks much idliman. Working for the same employer with same job duties and don’t have an intention for job change with a JUN PD. Just wondering as I have seen some weird RFE's for 485 adjudication on the other forum (track..). Thanks again for the reply.

[idliman]

Thanks much idliman. Working for the same employer with same job duties and don’t have an intention for job change with a JUN PD. Just wondering as I have seen some weird RFE's for 485 adjudication on the other forum (track..). Thanks again for the reply.
You are in much better shape than most of us (same employer, same job). Stay put. Hopefully you will be current once the next fiscal year starts. Don't worry. Your attorney should be able to handle any issues. There are a lot of experienced folks (experts) here and will help you out if there are any weird RFEs. Good Luck.

[karukon]

Thanks again, that's comforting!

[almost]

Dear All,
My date (May 1st 2009) just became current in the August Bulletin. Anyone able to advise what to expect or how it does (or can) pan out. Any insight would be much helpful. I have a few things lined up in anticipation of the GC and don't want to waste anymore time then I have to. If there is anything that can be done to expedite it then that would be much appreciated?
Thanks in advance

[imdeng]

AR-11 is an easy online thing and should be done by default IMO. Its just a change of address for your pending application.


You have NOT clearly stated whether you are working for the same company and in the same job description that filed for your PERM & I140? I believe we had a similar question earlier in this forum. For AC21, location change should not affect your AOS. As you are on EAD, you don't need to do H1B amendment for location change. You may need to file an AR-11 form and you might get an RFE for I-485 Supplement J. Consult with your attorney on the best strategy.

Updated:
If you decide to file I-485 Supp J, then an AR-11 may not be needed.

[imdeng]

Stay put for a little bit and let USCIS do its job. Its likely that your date will remain current in future. If there is no progress, then you can do usual follow-ups with USCIS and more aggressive follow-up such as Congressman/Senator office enquiry.


Dear All,
My date (May 1st 2009) just became current in the August Bulletin. Anyone able to advise what to expect or how it does (or can) pan out. Any insight would be much helpful. I have a few things lined up in anticipation of the GC and don't want to waste anymore time then I have to. If there is anything that can be done to expedite it then that would be much appreciated?
Thanks in advance

[qesehmk]

Dear All,
My date (May 1st 2009) just became current in the August Bulletin. Anyone able to advise what to expect or how it does (or can) pan out. Any insight would be much helpful. I have a few things lined up in anticipation of the GC and don't want to waste anymore time then I have to. If there is anything that can be done to expedite it then that would be much appreciated?
Thanks in advance

Almost there .... perhaps simply call USCIS for case status after mid august or better yet have your congressman / senator call them. I had requested late Sen. John McCain to do so and boy oh boy he at least responded to me. God bless his soul. Whether he did something or anything I don't know. But I did receive my GC within a couple of months max.

Take it easy ... 99.99% chance you should get it within month.

[Dondraper]

there are about 80,000 indians ( just the applicants ) in 2010 both EB2+3. Hmm lets think about how long that will take. Any guesses ??

[canada]

there are about 80,000 indians ( just the applicants ) in 2010 both EB2+3. Hmm lets think about how long that will take. Any guesses ??

To clear just the applicants-it would take 14.5 years in 2010 for EB2 and EB3.

80000/5600

5600=2800+2800

Now factor in dependents too.... Its pretty bleak

[vyruss]

Almost there .... perhaps simply call USCIS for case status after mid august or better yet have your congressman / senator call them. I had requested late Sen. John McCain to do so and boy oh boy he at least responded to me. God bless his soul. Whether he did something or anything I don't know. But I did receive my GC within a couple of months max.

Take it easy ... 99.99% chance you should get it within month.

Interesting Q. late Sen. John McCain's office also helped me get my AP (a couple weeks earlier than I was expecting) as I had to leave the country due to a family member's medical condition.

[qesehmk]

Interesting Q. late Sen. John McCain's office also helped me get my AP (a couple weeks earlier than I was expecting) as I had to leave the country due to a family member's medical condition.

Good guy! Wasn't he? I never knew you were in AZ. There are a few others like suninphx.

[aquatican]

Here’s a thought experiment . When amnesty comes up and they have a rule saying that
If you have lived here for past 3 years they will setup a pathway for you to get permanent green card and
You would rather join that queue and not wait 14 years - in that case
If you go to Mexico and then cross the border illegally and take a picture of you crossing the border does it make you eligible for amnesty?

^ please don’t do this without adequate legal consultation. Desperate times desperate measures :)

[Spectator]

there are about 80,000 indians ( just the applicants ) in 2010 both EB2+3. Hmm lets think about how long that will take. Any guesses ??

Not sure where you are getting that figure from. Care to elaborate?

There were about 22.4k PERM certifications for India that approximately correspond to a 2010 PD (http://qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India?p=3099&viewfull=1#post3099).

There'll be a few more NIW and Schedule A cases, but that would still be a long way away from your 80k figure.

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[NJMavarick]

there are about 80,000 indians ( just the applicants ) in 2010 both EB2+3. Hmm lets think about how long that will take. Any guesses ??

You may want to look at the below for accurate data:

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India

[TheLureoftheGreen]

First time poster here. Can I get your best guesses for when I might be able to file my I-485 with my EB2 India PD of July 7, 2009? This process has been one long tease over the last couple of years...Thanks much!

[lville]

First time poster here. Can I get your best guesses for when I might be able to file my I-485 with my EB2 India PD of July 7, 2009? This process has been one long tease over the last couple of years...Thank much!

May 22, 2009 here. Was hoping to get GC 3 yrs ago when I moved cross country, changed job to jump in EB2 from EB3. It's been painful. Last year when they accepted filing dates, it was stuck on May 22, 2009 and I could not file it.

[vyruss]

May 22, 2009 here. Was hoping to get GC 3 yrs ago when I moved cross country, changed job to jump in EB2 from EB3. It's been painful. Last year when they accepted filing dates, it was stuck on May 22, 2009 and I could not file it.

Just curious. Were you not able to use EB3 date of May 22, 3009 (like use the I-140 from EB3) to get GC when dates became current recently. I read elsewhere that USCiS was in fact reaching out to folks with I-140s in multiple categoris and asking which one they would like to proceed with. Not sure how that worked in their case.

[TheLureoftheGreen]

You may want to look at the below for accurate data:

https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India

Thanks for this. Am I reading this right? There were approximately 3,800 EB2 and EB3 PERM certifications made in the months of May, June and July 2009. Assuming that 2,800 of those were EB2 petitions, can we expect EB2 petitions filed through, say June 2009, to clear in FY 2020?

[TheLureoftheGreen]

May 22, 2009 here. Was hoping to get GC 3 yrs ago when I moved cross country, changed job to jump in EB2 from EB3. It's been painful. Last year when they accepted filing dates, it was stuck on May 22, 2009 and I could not file it.

With 2,800 GCs EB2 is entitled to, I think that you are almost there. Perhaps the October 2019 bulletin gets it done for you. Hang in there.

[lville]

Just curious. Were you not able to use EB3 date of May 22, 3009 (like use the I-140 from EB3) to get GC when dates became current recently. I read elsewhere that USCiS was in fact reaching out to folks with I-140s in multiple categoris and asking which one they would like to proceed with. Not sure how that worked in their case.

I don't work for the same employer anymore that sponsored me in EB3.

[NJMavarick]

Thanks for this. Am I reading this right? There were approximately 3,800 EB2 and EB3 PERM certifications made in the months of May, June and July 2009. Assuming that 2,800 of those were EB2 petitions, can we expect EB2 petitions filed through, say June 2009, to clear in FY 2020?

There were 3800~ primary PERM applications during that period. Once you count the dependents, the number of people waiting to be greened in EB2 will be higher. Its really hard to predict considering people are moving from one queue to another. Maybe the other gurus on this forum can chime in...

[canada]

There were 3800~ primary PERM applications during that period. Once you count the dependents, the number of people waiting to be greened in EB2 will be higher. Its really hard to predict considering people are moving from one queue to another. Maybe the other gurus on this forum can chime in...

Pending Inventory released in July 2018 (which includes both the applicant and the dependents) shows 1400 for May 2009, 1400 for June 2009 and 800 for July 2009.

So based on that by October 2020-it should reach July 1st, 2009.

However consular processing numbers are not included in PI.

Also applicants are moving between EB2/EB3 resulting in slowing the process in my opinion

[IamGSN]

Pending Inventory released in July 2018 (which includes both the applicant and the dependents) shows 1400 for May 2009, 1400 for June 2009 and 800 for July 2009.

So based on that by October 2020-it should reach July 1st, 2009.

However consular processing numbers are not included in PI.

Also applicants are moving between EB2/EB3 resulting in slowing the process in my opinion

Are there any chances of Filing Dates movement in October 2019 ?

[canada]

Are there any chances of Filing Dates movement in October 2019 ?

Its anybody's guess because we don't have any information for the last one year regarding pending inventory.

[ferric]

Are there any chances of Filing Dates movement in October 2019 ?

Definitely not for EB3-I - CO already has demand data till 01APR2010 between the CP filings, downgrades and original EB3-I folks

It’ll be interesting to see where FAD returns to in October

[idliman]

Definitely not for EB3-I - CO already has demand data till 01APR2010 between the CP filings, downgrades and original EB3-I folks

It’ll be interesting to see where FAD returns to in October
I concur;
For EB3I:
Starting with Jan-2019 bulletin, the EB3I Filing dates are in 01APR2010. This is ahead of the FA dates by 10 months or so. So Mr. CO has good idea of demand in EB3I.
For EB2I:
EB2I filing dates are at 01JUN2009. However, the FA dates went to 01MAY2010 in April-2012 visa bulletin. He does not have the delta (change in demand) for EB2I since April-2012. He may move the DF for EB2I beyond 01JUL2009. EB2I DF went to 01JUL2009 in 2015, 2016.

[idliman]

Is there a way to know how many EB3I applicants are pending till 01JUL09?

EB3I reached 01JAN09 in Aug-2018. In one year, EB3I dates have moved to 01JUL09 (with retrogression). In other words a total of 2800 GCs were consumed by EB3I applicants with PDs in the first 6 months of 2009. Because the dates were moved gradually, I would expect most original EB3I applicants to have obtained their GCs by now. I would not think more than 500 EB3I applicants with PDs in first half of 2009 are still waiting. With this data, it can be extrapolated that there will be only another 2800 EB3I applicants in the second half of 2009.

The last known inventory for EB2I from May09 to Dec09 is about 9000. It is three times the EB3I number based on the trend we saw in the last year. With the downward porting from EB2I to EB3I, I think we say conservatively that the combined dates will reach somewhere in SEPT2009 by the end of next year without considering any spillover. Any counter arguments?

[imdeng]

Counter Arguments from top of my head: One - EB3I CP cases are exploding (see Spec's posts) and are consuming much of the quota leaving little for AOS cases. Two - for all the talk of downgrades, I feel like most folks in EB2I with 2009 PDs with EADs are going to stick it out. Surely July/Aug/Sept 2009 which are within reach in couple of years. Whether EB3I will run far ahead of EB2I will depend upon the balance of the two above and I have no idea how these numbers will stack up.



Is there a way to know how many EB3I applicants are pending till 01JUL09?

EB3I reached 01JAN09 in Aug-2018. In one year, EB3I dates have moved to 01JUL09 (with retrogression). In other words a total of 2800 GCs were consumed by EB3I applicants with PDs in the first 6 months of 2009. Because the dates were moved gradually, I would expect most original EB3I applicants to have obtained their GCs by now. I would not think more than 500 EB3I applicants with PDs in first half of 2009 are still waiting. With this data, it can be extrapolated that there will be only another 2800 EB3I applicants in the second half of 2009.

The last known inventory for EB2I from May09 to Dec09 is about 9000. It is three times the EB3I number based on the trend we saw in the last year. With the downward porting from EB2I to EB3I, I think we say conservatively that the combined dates will reach somewhere in SEPT2009 by the end of next year without considering any spillover. Any counter arguments?

[Spectator]

Is there a way to know how many EB3I applicants are pending till 01JUL09?

EB3I reached 01JAN09 in Aug-2018. In one year, EB3I dates have moved to 01JUL09 (with retrogression). In other words a total of 2800 GCs were consumed by EB3I applicants with PDs in the first 6 months of 2009. Because the dates were moved gradually, I would expect most original EB3I applicants to have obtained their GCs by now. I would not think more than 500 EB3I applicants with PDs in first half of 2009 are still waiting. With this data, it can be extrapolated that there will be only another 2800 EB3I applicants in the second half of 2009.

The last known inventory for EB2I from May09 to Dec09 is about 9000. It is three times the EB3I number based on the trend we saw in the last year. With the downward porting from EB2I to EB3I, I think we say conservatively that the combined dates will reach somewhere in SEPT2009 by the end of next year without considering any spillover. Any counter arguments?

idleman,

You are forced to make assumptions, for lack of data.

The problem is that you can't really test whether the assumptions hold true.

Implicitly, you've made an assumption that :

a) EB3-I has only received 2.8k approvals in FY2019.

b) That those approvals only came from PD Jan-Jun 2009.

I can't tell you whether they are good assumptions or not.

Trackitt approvals (which may not be a very good data source this year) for EB3-I show that 90% of approvals are for PD years prior to 2009.

This may not be altogether surprising, the processing time for a new I-485 is anywhere from 8 to 12 months.

I'm not criticizing - just pointing out how difficult it is.

[canada]

Counter Arguments from top of my head: One - EB3I CP cases are exploding (see Spec's posts) and are consuming much of the quota leaving little for AOS cases. Two - for all the talk of downgrades, I feel like most folks in EB2I with 2009 PDs with EADs are going to stick it out. Surely July/Aug/Sept 2009 which are within reach in couple of years. Whether EB3I will run far ahead of EB2I will depend upon the balance of the two above and I have no idea how these numbers will stack up.


Rather than going through the interview process and downgrade- people with EAD’s in May, June, July, 2009 may stay in EB2 and wait for GC to arrive in the mail. I find this argument valid

[ferric]

Spec,

Is there any way to predict the number of CP cases for EB3-I who can theoretically file with PD before Jul 2009?

It sounds like it’ll be 50/50 between CP and AOS this year? 1400 CP (assuming Jul is another 200 and retrogression in Aug/Sep) and 1400 AOS.

[Blue_fairy]

Don't leave out us Oct 2009 folks. On EAD since 2012 and sticking it out instead of moving queues :)


Counter Arguments from top of my head: One - EB3I CP cases are exploding (see Spec's posts) and are consuming much of the quota leaving little for AOS cases. Two - for all the talk of downgrades, I feel like most folks in EB2I with 2009 PDs with EADs are going to stick it out. Surely July/Aug/Sept 2009 which are within reach in couple of years. Whether EB3I will run far ahead of EB2I will depend upon the balance of the two above and I have no idea how these numbers will stack up.

[idliman]

idleman,

You are forced to make assumptions, for lack of data.

The problem is that you can't really test whether the assumptions hold true.

Implicitly, you've made an assumption that :

a) EB3-I has only received 2.8k approvals in FY2019.

b) That those approvals only came from PD Jan-Jun 2009.

I can't tell you whether they are good assumptions or not.

Trackitt approvals (which may not be a very good data source this year) for EB3-I show that 90% of approvals are for PD years prior to 2009.

This may not be altogether surprising, the processing time for a new I-485 is anywhere from 8 to 12 months.

I'm not criticizing - just pointing out how difficult it is.
I did not look at trackitt data. I went back and checked. The following are the EB2I and EB3I approvals in the last year.

EB3I Approvals Trend
PDs 2006 and before ----- 5%
2007 ------------------- 29%
2008 ------------------- 56%
2009 ------------------- 10%

EB2I Approvals Trend
PDs 2006 and before ----- 6%
2007 -------------------- 6%
2008 ------------------- 18%
2009 ------------------- 71%

My assumptions were totally incorrect. The approval of EB3I with PDs in 2009 had barely started. EB3I PD of 01JAN09 got FA current only in Aug-2018. So most of the EB3I pending applicants with PDs 2009 had their I485s in process for less than a year. With interviews and slowness of USCIS, they should start getting approvals after 300 days or so.

I would still think that Pending EB3I folks in 2009 are still less than 1/3rd of EB2I folks. EB3I folks up to 01JUL2007 got their EADs; Also if I was EB3I, I would have gone through the pain of seeing PDs move by a week every month for the PDs 2001 to 2005. This would have forced me to get into EB2I queue. This makes me to think positively that EB3I FA will somehow reach beyond 01JAN10 before getting retrogressed as more downward porting from EB2I happens. The variable that we don't know is the internal pending inventory data for EB3I that only Mr. CO has access to.

It is good to know that most of the EB2I applicants are staying put and waiting for their GCs to arrive by mail. I guess this is a personal decision based on the relative stability of their jobs.

I would be glad to hear the thoughts of 2009 EB3I applicants in this forum. They would have spent most time analyzing their situation and their perspective might be different from folks who spent most of their time on EB2I queue.

[mesimba]

Dear Experts,

I am working in an industry which is on the downtrend with layoffs every quarter, my skills for which I had applied my labor are getting irrelevant.
Priority date EB2I, Dec 2009 and moved to a different job (from original PERM/I-140) using EAD.

At this point considering the downward trend in the industry that I currently work for I am looking for a change in field.

I have a few questions:

- If my PERM is for e.g. applied for C++ and I get a job in Java and finance. Will there be any issues if I change my job on EAD with file for a new supplement J ?
- Realistically when do you see EB2I PD Dec 2009 getting cleared.
- Is it worth considering my situation to downgrade to EB3 with better chances of greened earlier ? What will be the risk involved.

Any guidance to help my situation will be greatly appreciated.

[idliman]

Dear Experts,

I am working in an industry which is on the downtrend with layoffs every quarter, my skills for which I had applied my labor are getting irrelevant.
Priority date EB2I, Dec 2009 and moved to a different job (from original PERM/I-140) using EAD.

At this point considering the downward trend in the industry that I currently work for I am looking for a change in field.

I have a few questions:

- If my PERM is for e.g. applied for C++ and I get a job in Java and finance. Will there be any issues if I change my job on EAD with file for a new supplement J ?
- Realistically when do you see EB2I PD Dec 2009 getting cleared.
- Is it worth considering my situation to downgrade to EB3 with better chances of greened earlier ? What will be the risk involved.

Any guidance to help my situation will be greatly appreciated.
Sounds like what our industry is going through now. The key is how your attorney is going to argue for same or similar category justification. If the SOC codes of the H1B are the same that would be good. But you had joined directly on EAD. So you need to somehow meet the same or similar category justification. To be safe, I would also apply for a new PERM in your new employer / new job description; You can apply in EB2 itself and then when the time comes, because you have original PERM with the same employer you can downgraded to EB3 if needed.

Dec2009 EB2I is very close to my PD. Read the discussions above on possible movements; If you want to predict safely, I would say you will get your GC before OCT2022 (three years from now). The optimistic prediction will be OCT2021; However, I believe that EB3I will be current for your PD by next summer (by OCT202) subject to retrogression; The consensus seems to be that EB2I will clear 2009 in 2 to 3 years. If you are mentally prepared for the worst, you will not be disappointed.

If you have that many questions about job description and justification, you should consider a new PERM. You have enough time to get a new PERM approved before your PD becomes current. I cannot comment on the technicalities of your job as I am not familiar with your industry. Good luck.

[mesimba]

Sounds like what our industry is going through now. The key is how your attorney is going to argue for same or similar category justification. If the SOC codes of the H1B are the same that would be good. But you had joined directly on EAD. So you need to somehow meet the same or similar category justification. To be safe, I would also apply for a new PERM in your new employer / new job description; You can apply in EB2 itself and then when the time comes, because you have original PERM with the same employer you can downgraded to EB3 if needed.

Dec2009 EB2I is very close to my PD. Read the discussions above on possible movements; If you want to predict safely, I would say you will get your GC before OCT2022 (three years from now). The optimistic prediction will be OCT2021; However, I believe that EB3I will be current for your PD by next summer (by OCT202) subject to retrogression; The consensus seems to be that EB2I will clear 2009 in 2 to 3 years. If you are mentally prepared for the worst, you will not be disappointed.

If you have that many questions about job description and justification, you should consider a new PERM. You have enough time to get a new PERM approved before your PD becomes current. I cannot comment on the technicalities of your job as I am not familiar with your industry. Good luck.

Thank you so much!

[imdeng]

USCIS does not care about the content of your job (like Java vs C++) - and the job description can be written (read spinned) to how you want it to sound like. USCIS is also okay with job progression. What really matters is the job SOC codes. If they are same or similar then that should work out okay for AC21 job portability purposes. In my specific case, I moved from to a different job - but both were same SOC code in the same industry, similar organizations - so the AC21 process (I485J) was easier.

Dec 2009 can be long wait. Worst case scenario - very broadly: next year is May+June+Part July 2009. Year after is Part July + Aug + Sep, Year after that is Oct+Nov+Dec. So you are looking at three years. Give or take 6 months.


Sounds like what our industry is going through now. The key is how your attorney is going to argue for same or similar category justification. If the SOC codes of the H1B are the same that would be good. But you had joined directly on EAD. So you need to somehow meet the same or similar category justification. To be safe, I would also apply for a new PERM in your new employer / new job description; You can apply in EB2 itself and then when the time comes, because you have original PERM with the same employer you can downgraded to EB3 if needed.

Dec2009 EB2I is very close to my PD. Read the discussions above on possible movements; If you want to predict safely, I would say you will get your GC before OCT2022 (three years from now). The optimistic prediction will be OCT2021; However, I believe that EB3I will be current for your PD by next summer (by OCT202) subject to retrogression; The consensus seems to be that EB2I will clear 2009 in 2 to 3 years. If you are mentally prepared for the worst, you will not be disappointed.

If you have that many questions about job description and justification, you should consider a new PERM. You have enough time to get a new PERM approved before your PD becomes current. I cannot comment on the technicalities of your job as I am not familiar with your industry. Good luck.

[karukon]

USCIS does not care about the content of your job (like Java vs C++) - and the job description can be written (read spinned) to how you want it to sound like. USCIS is also okay with job progression. What really matters is the job SOC codes. If they are same or similar then that should work out okay for AC21 job portability purposes. In my specific case, I moved from to a different job - but both were same SOC code in the same industry, similar organizations - so the AC21 process (I485J) was easier.

Dec 2009 can be long wait. Worst case scenario - very broadly: next year is May+June+Part July 2009. Year after is Part July + Aug + Sep, Year after that is Oct+Nov+Dec. So you are looking at three years. Give or take 6 months.

imdeng: For codes which changed since 2009, do USCIS compare and see ?

Thanks!

[imdeng]

I don't have any personal insight into this. I would assume that for any SOC classification change there is a before -> after mapping available - but this is kinda specific to your SOC classification.

imdeng: For codes which changed since 2009, do USCIS compare and see ?

Thanks!

[idliman]

It is Aug 14th and no visa bulletin yet?

[canada]

It is Aug 14th and no visa bulletin yet?


https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-september-2019.html

EB2- 8th May,2009.
EB1-unavailable
EB3 -1st July 2005

[idliman]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-september-2019.html

EB2- 8th May,2009.
EB1-unavailable
EB3 -1st July 2005
Thanks.
EB1IFA ==> U
EB2IFA ==> +6 Days
EB3IFA ==> -184 Days
No change in DF for India (EB1, EB2 & EB3). So in the next year the DF are expected to progress from 22FEB17 (EB1), 08MAY09 (EB2) and 01JUL09 (EB3).

[IamGSN]

Thanks.
EB1IFA ==> U
EB2IFA ==> +6 Days
EB3IFA ==> -184 Days
No change in DF for India (EB1, EB2 & EB3). So in the next year the DF are expected to progress from 22FEB17 (EB1), 08MAY09 (EB2) and 01JUL09 (EB3).

Actually EB3 India was retrogressed by another 6 months, what is CO trying to say in Bulletin ? Will the FA date be imposed back to 01JUL2009 for EB3 India?

============== Bulletine CO Comments
India – Employment First (E1) and Third Preferences (E3): Despite the earlier retrogression of the India E1 and E3 final action dates, USCIS demand for adjustment of status applicants with priority dates earlier than those dates remained excessive. Therefore, it was necessary to make the India E1 final action date “Unavailable” earlier in July, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2019. The India Employment Third preference date has been retrogressed and that date will be imposed immediately.

It is likely that corrective action will also be required for other preferences prior to the end of the fiscal year.

Numbers will once again be available for applicants in the above mentioned preferences beginning October 1, 2019 under the FY-2020 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return these final action dates to (at least) the dates which had originally been announced for August.
=============================

[vbollu]

seems, there is no SO got applied to this quarter and end of the FY. I thought Eb2 2009 would be cleared by end of FY, my estimates got wrong.

[ferric]

Sounds like there are still people waiting for visa numbers between 2006-2009 in EB3-I

I have a feeling it won’t move back to July 2009 - the EB3I CP folks are activating really old (2006/7/8) petitions and using 4 numbers per applicant, not sure if that trend will continue but might lead CO to not move dates back to July 2009.



Actually EB3 India was retrogressed by another 6 months, what is CO trying to say in Bulletin ? Will the FA date be imposed back to 01JUL2009 for EB3 India?

============== Bulletine CO Comments
India – Employment First (E1) and Third Preferences (E3): Despite the earlier retrogression of the India E1 and E3 final action dates, USCIS demand for adjustment of status applicants with priority dates earlier than those dates remained excessive. Therefore, it was necessary to make the India E1 final action date “Unavailable” earlier in July, and it will remain so for the remainder of FY-2019. The India Employment Third preference date has been retrogressed and that date will be imposed immediately.

It is likely that corrective action will also be required for other preferences prior to the end of the fiscal year.

Numbers will once again be available for applicants in the above mentioned preferences beginning October 1, 2019 under the FY-2020 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return these final action dates to (at least) the dates which had originally been announced for August.
=============================

[canada]

seems, there is no SO got applied to this quarter and end of the FY. I thought Eb2 2009 would be cleared by end of FY, my estimates got wrong.



I wish your predictions were right but sadly EB2 will move 7-10 days per visa bulletin, and that’s being optimistic. Conservatively 3-6 days

[lville]

I wish your predictions were right but sadly EB2 will move 7-10 days per visa bulletin, and that’s being optimistic. Conservatively 3-6 days

Any chance EB2-I will at least advance past May 22, 09 soon ? It’s going to be new year and new quota in 2020, so hoping it at least advances a week or more at a time and not crawl like 3 days.

[vyruss]

Any chance EB2-I will at least advance past May 22, 09 soon ? It’s going to be new year and new quota in 2020, so hoping it at least advances a week or more at a time and not crawl like 3 days.

Last year the dates moved by 11 days with new quota; the year before the dates moved by 23 days with new quota. So going by that trend, the dates should move between a week to two by October 15. Fingers crossed. Actually fingers, toes, legs, hands ...you name it all crossed. 10 years is a long wait. I agree there are others in worse situation, but 10 years is on an average 25% of your work life. :mad:

[TheLureoftheGreen]

Last year the dates moved by 11 days with new quota; the year before the dates moved by 23 days with new quota. So going by that trend, the dates should move between a week to two by October 15. Fingers crossed. Actually fingers, toes, legs, hands ...you name it all crossed. 10 years is a long wait. I agree there are others in worse situation, but 10 years is on an average 25% of your work life. :mad:

I can only hope that the filing date moves to mid-July 09 within the first quarter of the new FY. I am July 7, 09 (EB2), so while it's wishful thinking to expect to become current in this FY, being able to file 485 would be a huge relief! Oh well...

[IamGSN]

I can only hope that the filing date moves to mid-July 09 within the first quarter of the new FY. I am July 7, 09 (EB2), so while it's wishful thinking to expect to become current in this FY, being able to file 485 would be a huge relief! Oh well...

I am on the same boat and hoping for the same, as EB3-I is dead for now.

[vyruss]

I am on the same boat and hoping for the same, as EB3-I is dead for now.

EB3I is not dead. It will bounce back to a July 09 date beginning October.

[idliman]

Sounds like there are still people waiting for visa numbers between 2006-2009 in EB3-I

I have a feeling it wonÂ’t move back to July 2009 - the EB3I CP folks are activating really old (2006/7/8) petitions and using 4 numbers per applicant, not sure if that trend will continue but might lead CO to not move dates back to July 2009.
Glad to hear everyone's comments and frustrations. Sometimes this forum feels like only the "toppers" are posting and the "back benchers" are not encouraged OR afraid because of the higher standards here.

Looking at the approval trend in trackitt, EB3I 2009 applicants barely got any approval (less than 10% of total). So almost the entire 2009 EB3I that was current is still waiting for visas. I also agree with your view that more people in India (typically EB3I) are getting eligible to do CP. One of my friends in India decided not to pursue GC even though his company supported him to do it.

Usually there is some election year magic. I wish for that next year. Otherwise it is going to be the story of no spillover and another 2-3 years to clear 2009. The immigration system is so complex that no one can predict the cascading effects. I for one supported Obama admin's streamlining of GCs process till it systematically reduced the Spillover to India. It took about 2 or 3 years for that to play out. Maybe the "Inadmissability on Public Charge" rule might turnout to be positive. So we have to wait and see how the new Public Charge rule plays out. It is too early to say anything about its impacts now.

[vyruss]

Looking at the approval trend in trackitt, EB3I 2009 applicants barely got any approval (less than 10% of total). So almost the entire 2009 EB3I that was current is still waiting for visas. I also agree with your view that more people in India (typically EB3I) are getting eligible to do CP. One of my friends in India decided not to pursue GC even though his company supported him to do it.



How does the CP process work? What are the benefits or disadvantages with it? Can you shift from non-CP to CP?

[maverickwild]

I got my 485 interview done yesterday , is this a indication that EB3-I dates will move or are they just trying to clear the desk , since interview is mandatory nowadays.

My pd is 03/2010 , I downgraded this Jan from EB2.
My IO gave a standard reply that dates will move in October.

[canada]

I got my 485 interview done yesterday , is this a indication that EB3-I dates will move or are they just trying to clear the desk , since interview is mandatory nowadays.

My pd is 03/2010 , I downgraded this Jan from EB2.
My IO gave a standard reply that dates will move in October.

Just out of curiosity-How can someone have an interview when the dates are not current. Can you please explain? Thanks

[maverickwild]

Just out of curiosity-How can someone have an interview when the dates are not current. Can you please explain? Thanks

I am as surprised as you are, has anyone in the forum got a interview call recently without being current?
I saw few cases in trackitt, so it’s not unusual but curious to see if there is a trend here .

[EB32010]

I am as surprised as you are, has anyone in the forum got a interview call recently without being current?
I saw few cases in trackitt, so it’s not unusual but curious to see if there is a trend here .
Yes. Many of my friends got the interviews done even before the dates are current. It’s the norm.

[NJMavarick]

EB3I is not dead. It will bounce back to a July 09 date beginning October.

I wish for that too! However, the reason for the dates being retrogressed seems to be a deluge of downgrades in which case I am not really sure if that will happen. The forecast seems gloomy!

[redsox2009]

Thanks.
EB1IFA ==> U
EB2IFA ==> +6 Days
EB3IFA ==> -184 Days
No change in DF for India (EB1, EB2 & EB3). So in the next year the DF are expected to progress from 22FEB17 (EB1), 08MAY09 (EB2) and 01JUL09 (EB3).

Two positive things in the Sep Bulletin.

This year EB got almost 2k extra GC's. it is 141.9K instead of 140K.
" The fiscal year 2019 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 141,918."

Last three months consular processing got increased by 50% and then it started cooling down. Hope this will continue.
"There has been a combination of a dramatic change in the USCIS demand pattern for adjustment of status applicants during July, and a larger than anticipated return of unused numbers which had been provided to consular offices for July use."

Bad News is that about dates moving back. CO said he will move dates back to August bulletin dates instead of July bulletin dates.

"Numbers will once again be available for applicants in the above mentioned preferences beginning October 1, 2019 under the FY-2020 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return these final action dates to (at least) the dates which had originally been announced for August. "

[iatiam]

Two positive things in the Sep Bulletin.

This year EB got almost 2k extra GC's. it is 141.9K instead of 140K.
" The fiscal year 2019 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 141,918."

Last three months consular processing got increased by 50% and then it started cooling down. Hope this will continue.
"There has been a combination of a dramatic change in the USCIS demand pattern for adjustment of status applicants during July, and a larger than anticipated return of unused numbers which had been provided to consular offices for July use."

Bad News is that about dates moving back. CO said he will move dates back to August bulletin dates instead of July bulletin dates.

"Numbers will once again be available for applicants in the above mentioned preferences beginning October 1, 2019 under the FY-2020 annual numerical limitations. Every effort will be made to return these final action dates to (at least) the dates which had originally been announced for August. "

True that. Plus FB might provide some SO this year. As Spec showed once, the numbers would be limited. But I really hope the public charge provision will reduce the FB consumption even further. Overall, the future doesn't look as bad as it used to be in the Obama days when dates rarely moved. Add to it the potential for a 2020 recession, we might see some healthy movement next FY.

Iatiam

[jimmys]

I wish for that too! However, the reason for the dates being retrogressed seems to be a deluge of downgrades in which case I am not really sure if that will happen. The forecast seems gloomy!

Deluge of downgrades? Does it mean people who got their GC in EB2 are downgrading to get GC in EB-3? Only in Feb 2019 VB, EB-3 India took over EB-2 India. That time EB-2 was already in April 2009. So, how many EB-2 Indians between April 2009 - Jun 2009 are downgrading to EB-3 that's causing a deluge? There may be many downgrading in late 2009 and early 2010.

If anything that's going to prevent EB-3 India to move forward is, unknown CP cases. As already pointed out by Spec or Q earlier, the CP numbers for EB-3 India is unusually high this year. Since we don't know how many are still pending for CP in EB-3 2008/2009, it might negatively affect EB-3 India movement. To return back to July 1,2009 downgrades are not a significant problem,IMO.

[jimmys]

I am as surprised as you are, has anyone in the forum got a interview call recently without being current?
I saw few cases in trackitt, so it’s not unusual but curious to see if there is a trend here .

A lot are called for interview even when their dates are not current. I was one of them. I was called for interview about 4 months ago. The IO told me since my dates are not current he can't issue the visa on the spot. However, he told me I will get my visa as soon as my PD becomes current.

[kb2013]

No second thought. Just do it. To know more about EB3 India future.. go through my last 4 years updates in this forum.

YTeleven, I initiated an almost irreversible downgrade to EB3 based on your strong conviction and views this forum. You still confident it is the right choice? The last thing that should happen to a EB2/3 applicant is getting pushed back another few years in this already excruciating wait.

[NJMavarick]

Deluge of downgrades? Does it mean people who got their GC in EB2 are downgrading to get GC in EB-3? Only in Feb 2019 VB, EB-3 India took over EB-2 India. That time EB-2 was already in April 2009. So, how many EB-2 Indians between April 2009 - Jun 2009 are downgrading to EB-3 that's causing a deluge? There may be many downgrading in late 2009 and early 2010.

If anything that's going to prevent EB-3 India to move forward is, unknown CP cases. As already pointed out by Spec or Q earlier, the CP numbers for EB-3 India is unusually high this year. Since we don't know how many are still pending for CP in EB-3 2008/2009, it might negatively affect EB-3 India movement. To return back to July 1,2009 downgrades are not a significant problem,IMO.

The EB2 folks who are still on EAD would have seen this as an opportunity to downgrade and maybe get the GC sooner. IMO, if the law allows it then they would do it and I do not see anything wrong with that. It does affect people like me but then at one point in time, we had a lot of upgrades which choked the EB2 line and what we see now is the reverse.

Even if the filing dates in EB3 move beyond April 2010, you would start seeing a lot of eb2 downgrades leading to a slow movement in EB3. This has been discussed in the past in the forum so would refrain from commenting further.

[jimmys]

The EB2 folks who are still on EAD would have seen this as an opportunity to downgrade and maybe get the GC sooner. IMO, if the law allows it then they would do it and I do not see anything wrong with that. It does affect people like me but then at one point in time, we had a lot of upgrades which choked the EB2 line and what we see now is the reverse.

Even if the filing dates in EB3 move beyond April 2010, you would start seeing a lot of eb2 downgrades leading to a slow movement in EB3. This has been discussed in the past in the forum so would refrain from commenting further.

I didn't talk about EB-3 India filing dates moving beyond 2010. My point was there can't be deluge of downgrades before July 1,2009. There may be a few hundred downgrade cases maximum till July 1,2009.

Unless you already had EB-3 I-140 approved, you have to go through new I-140 and link that I-140 to your existing EB-2 case. For people in April 2009 it doesn't make sense as they may get their green card in the next few months or so. So the dates moving(not moving) to July 1,2009 is not because of EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades.

The real surprise was CP numbers for EB-3 India.

[lville]

YTeleven, I initiated an almost irreversible downgrade to EB3 based on your strong conviction and views this forum. You still confident it is the right choice? The last thing that should happen to a EB2/3 applicant is getting pushed back another few years in this already excruciating wait.

LOL :D (PD May 22,2009 EB2-I) I was in the same boat year ago when dates for EB3 moved past my PD. I was on the fence for few months and talking to other people on this forum and other decided to stay in EB2. Looking back if I had jumped to EB3 the month it passed my PD, I would have had my GC by now. Or at least my EAD/AP. Being in May 2009 sux, I feel like I'm neither here or there. This kind of sux, don't know how many more months I'll have to wait. Hopefully October bulletin moves beyond my date. What's more irritating is that 2 months before EB3 went past my PD I had my Perm approved. I was waiting to decide which category to choose. And when I decided to go EB2, very next month dates went past my PD. 2 yrs before that I had switched job, moved cross country because my new employer promised me to file my GC under EB2

[iatiam]

I didn't talk about EB-3 India filing dates moving beyond 2010. My point was there can't be deluge of downgrades before July 1,2009. There may be a few hundred downgrade cases maximum till July 1,2009.

Unless you already had EB-3 I-140 approved, you have to go through new I-140 and link that I-140 to your existing EB-2 case. For people in April 2009 it doesn't make sense as they may get their green card in the next few months or so. So the dates moving(not moving) to July 1,2009 is not because of EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades.

The real surprise was CP numbers for EB-3 India.

Most of the negative sentiment against EB2 to EB3 downgrade is based on fear mongering by existing EB3 folks. Let's get real here - we have only seen a month of advance in EB2. So if someone has a PD in July 2009 or beyond, they can potentially save three to four years by moving to EB3. Trackitt is full of such people and for every person who did it in Trackitt, there are several others who are not active there. Downgrades are going to accelerate next FY especially if EB3 dates moved rapidly.

Iatiam

[NJMavarick]

I didn't talk about EB-3 India filing dates moving beyond 2010. My point was there can't be deluge of downgrades before July 1,2009. There may be a few hundred downgrade cases maximum till July 1,2009.

Unless you already had EB-3 I-140 approved, you have to go through new I-140 and link that I-140 to your existing EB-2 case. For people in April 2009 it doesn't make sense as they may get their green card in the next few months or so. So the dates moving(not moving) to July 1,2009 is not because of EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades.

The real surprise was CP numbers for EB-3 India.

OK. I do agree that we cannot have a lot of EB2 folks before July 2009 who would be downgrading. I stand corrected. At the minimum, we should see July 2009. We will have to wait and see how the dates pan out after that.

[AceMan]

Most of the negative sentiment against EB2 to EB3 downgrade is based on fear mongering by existing EB3 folks. Let's get real here - we have only seen a month of advance in EB2. So if someone has a PD in July 2009 or beyond, they can potentially save three to four years by moving to EB3. Trackitt is full of such people and for every person who did it in Trackitt, there are several others who are not active there. Downgrades are going to accelerate next FY especially if EB3 dates moved rapidly.

Iatiam


EB3 I for 2019 did not get anywhere near the 6000 + it got for 2017 and 2018, due to high demand from ROW. Also CP numbers were very high beyond CO's estimate and it also played a part in the delay. Downgrades did not impact EB3I movement for FY19.

[jimmys]

OK. I do agree that we cannot have a lot of EB2 folks before July 2009 who would be downgrading. I stand corrected. At the minimum, we should see July 2009. We will have to wait and see how the dates pan out after that.

Year after year, with a lot of hope we look forward to October bulletins. Let's see what's in store this time around.

[imdeng]

For the sake of everyone's sanity, I would request to keep politics/trump/legal-vs-illegal/etc out of this thread. You are welcome to discuss them in threads that specifically focus on those issues.


That's Trump's MO. He knows these will be challenged in states and will find a way to the Supreme Court where a conservative bench will uphold it. Hopefully his DACA cancellation will also be upheld by the court and stem the flow of illegals. If Obama can bring an executive order, I don't understand why his predecessor can't cancel it.

Iatiam

[anfu02]

LOL :D (PD May 22,2009 EB2-I) I was in the same boat year ago when dates for EB3 moved past my PD. I was on the fence for few months and talking to other people on this forum and other decided to stay in EB2. Looking back if I had jumped to EB3 the month it passed my PD, I would have had my GC by now. Or at least my EAD/AP. Being in May 2009 sux, I feel like I'm neither here or there. This kind of sux, don't know how many more months I'll have to wait. Hopefully October bulletin moves beyond my date. What's more irritating is that 2 months before EB3 went past my PD I had my Perm approved. I was waiting to decide which category to choose. And when I decided to go EB2, very next month dates went past my PD. 2 yrs before that I had switched job, moved cross country because my new employer promised me to file my GC under EB2

Mine is 05/15/09, I am waiting with bated breathe as well!!

[GCchaser]

My Priority date is September 2009, I have downgraded from EB2 to EB3, assuming that the line will move faster... what happens to my EB2 I 140? Is it still valid, can I use it if EB2 moves faster?

[GCchaser]

My EB2 priority date is September 2009 and never filed 485, but I have downgraded to EB3 assuming I can surpass the line but now EB3 is retrogressed! Now what happens to my EB2 I140? Can I still use it if EB2 dates current for FA or filing dates?

[IamGSN]

My EB2 priority date is September 2009 and never filed 485, but I have downgraded to EB3 assuming I can surpass the line but now EB3 is retrogressed! Now what happens to my EB2 I140? Can I still use it if EB2 dates current for FA or filing dates?

Yes, both are two different applications for future employment. But you cannot file I-485 simultaneously in both.

[GCchaser]

Yes, both are two different applications for future employment. But you cannot file I-485 simultaneously in both.
Thanks for your response, but my employer didn’t file new PERM for EB3, it is a straight downgrade from EB2 to EB3

[idliman]

My EB2 priority date is September 2009 and never filed 485, but I have downgraded to EB3 assuming I can surpass the line but now EB3 is retrogressed! Now what happens to my EB2 I140? Can I still use it if EB2 dates current for FA or filing dates? If you have downgraded to EB3, the filing dates (DF) for EB3I is 01APR10. Why can't you file for I485 and start the AC21 180 day clock. You can get EAD+AP right? Am I missing anything?
Reg EB2I: If I was the CO, I would not bother to move the DF for EB2. EB2 demand is well documented with only a few percentage missing (like your case) from demand. So he is not going to gain or lose anything by moving the DF for EB2I. So moving the DF for EB2I will be low on his priority. He eventually will have to move it as the FA dates move. IMHO, I think you made the right decision to downgrade to EB3I. In my opinion this will get you EAD+AP faster. However, for GC I am not sure whether EB2I or EB3I is the best option for you or for me (late Nov 2009 PD).

[lville]

If you have downgraded to EB3, the filing dates (DF) for EB3I is 01APR10. Why can't you file for I485 and start the AC21 180 day clock. You can get EAD+AP right? Am I missing anything?
Reg EB2I: If I was the CO, I would not bother to move the DF for EB2. EB2 demand is well documented with only a few percentage missing (like your case) from demand. So he is not going to gain or lose anything by moving the DF for EB2I. So moving the DF for EB2I will be low on his priority. He eventually will have to move it as the FA dates move. IMHO, I think you made the right decision to downgrade to EB3I. In my opinion this will get you EAD+AP faster. However, for GC I am not sure whether EB2I or EB3I is the best option for you or for me (late Nov 2009 PD).


They are not accepting DF yet. And not sure if they will going ahead.

[GCchaser]

If you have downgraded to EB3, the filing dates (DF) for EB3I is 01APR10. Why can't you file for I485 and start the AC21 180 day clock. You can get EAD+AP right? Am I missing anything?
Reg EB2I: If I was the CO, I would not bother to move the DF for EB2. EB2 demand is well documented with only a few percentage missing (like your case) from demand. So he is not going to gain or lose anything by moving the DF for EB2I. So moving the DF for EB2I will be low on his priority. He eventually will have to move it as the FA dates move. IMHO, I think you made the right decision to downgrade to EB3I. In my opinion this will get you EAD+AP faster. However, for GC I am not sure whether EB2I or EB3I is the best option for you or for me (late Nov 2009 PD).
I guess they are not accepting the filing dates at this point!

[NJMavarick]

Year after year, with a lot of hope we look forward to October bulletins. Let's see what's in store this time around.

True! Sadly, its a choice we all have made. With my date in 2011, it seems I may be looking anywhere between 4 to 8 years. <sigh>

The only way out is if S386 gets passed which at the moment looks like a long shot.

[idliman]

I guess they are not accepting the filing dates at this point!
Ah. Thanks. Oct-2018 to Jan-2019 Visa bulletins accepted the DF. So you have a chance in the next bulletin. Lets hope for the best. Keep your Birth Certificate and other docs for I-485 ready. I hope the window opens at least for a month so that people can get EAD+AP. The same arguments hold. They already have most of the demand in EB3I. So accepting the DF is not going to help or hurt them. Its 50/50. Praying to the almighty might sway the odds in your favor.

[GCchaser]

Ah. Thanks. Oct-2018 to Jan-2019 Visa bulletins accepted the DF. So you have a chance in the next bulletin. Lets hope for the best. Keep your Birth Certificate and other docs for I-485 ready. I hope the window opens at least for a month so that people can get EAD+AP. The same arguments hold. They already have most of the demand in EB3I. So accepting the DF is not going to help or hurt them. Its 50/50. Praying to the almighty might sway the odds in your favor.
Yeah, let’s hope for the best... how ever my original question was, since I have downgraded to EB3... what if dates move in EB2? Is my EB2 140 still valid?

[idliman]

Yeah, let’s hope for the best... how ever my original question was, since I have downgraded to EB3... what if dates move in EB2? Is my EB2 140 still valid?
I understand that EB-3 downgrade process does not invalidate the prior EB-2 petition in the event the EB-3 downgrade is not successful. However, after successful porting I am unsure of EB-2 I140. It should remain unaffected. Only Chinese forums will have a definitive answer as they started doing this 2-3 years ago.

[GCchaser]

I understand that EB-3 downgrade process does not invalidate the prior EB-2 petition in the event the EB-3 downgrade is not successful. However, after successful porting I am unsure of EB-2 I140. It should remain unaffected. Only Chinese forums will have a definitive answer as they started doing this 2-3 years ago.
I am not getting the right answer for this question, a friend told me one Chinese guy had this situation and he was able to use EB2...now I am repenting for downgrading

[jimmar]

I am not getting the right answer for this question, a friend told me one Chinese guy had this situation and he was able to use EB2...now I am repenting for downgrading

What matters is the I-140 receipt number referenced in the Supplement J form submitted along with I-485 application. You can have both EB2 and EB3 I-140's but which ever I-140 is used in the supplement will determine your category.

[lville]

I understand that EB-3 downgrade process does not invalidate the prior EB-2 petition in the event the EB-3 downgrade is not successful. However, after successful porting I am unsure of EB-2 I140. It should remain unaffected. Only Chinese forums will have a definitive answer as they started doing this 2-3 years ago.

My lawyer said You have to do amendment every time you switch categories (Eb2 to Eb3 to Eb2 to Eb3....). It is time consuming I believe.

[jimmar]

My lawyer said You have to do amendment every time you switch categories (Eb2 to Eb3 to Eb2 to Eb3....). It is time consuming I believe.

Also the new USCIS interviews are not fun, they are asking lot of questions based on Supplement J so better be ready to justify such category changes. I attended the interview last month, USCIS officer was not quite convinced with our category change (EB2 to Eb3) and issued RFE so think about a scenario where somebody is changing from EB2 to EB3 and then back to EB2. It will be difficult to justify.

[IamGSN]

Also the new USCIS interviews are not fun, they are asking lot of questions based on Supplement J so better be ready to justify such category changes. I attended the interview last month, USCIS officer was not quite convinced with our category change (EB2 to Eb3) and issued RFE so think about a scenario where somebody is changing from EB2 to EB3 and then back to EB2. It will be difficult to justify.

Important to know. First time I am hearing this.

[jimmar]

Important to know. First time I am hearing this.

Yes, we were caught off guard too, i thought the interview is just a formality but was totally wrong about it. Out officer told us that their new directive is to reject the cases without RFE but lot of it is depended on the individual officer and how you present the case in the interview. We were lucky to get RFE and not rejection.

[GCchaser]

Also the new USCIS interviews are not fun, they are asking lot of questions based on Supplement J so better be ready to justify such category changes. I attended the interview last month, USCIS officer was not quite convinced with our category change (EB2 to Eb3) and issued RFE so think about a scenario where somebody is changing from EB2 to EB3 and then back to EB2. It will be difficult to justify.
That’s weird, I know a guy downgraded and got their GC without any issue... I also saw couple of posts in Trackitt

[iatiam]

What is your PD? Your profile says it is in 2001. If that's the case, you should have your GC or citizenship by now

[jimmar]

What is your PD? Your profile says it is in 2001. If that's the case, you should have your GC or citizenship by now

India, August, 2009. Filed I-485 in December 2018 (EB3) and attended interview in July 2019.

[GCchaser]

India, August, 2009. Filed I-485 in December 2018 (EB3) and attended interview in July 2019.
May I know the exact reason for your RFE? did they request the reason for downgrade? Are there any changes in your job role?

[IamGSN]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Check-In with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (8-16-19)
Following a review of the dates listed in the September 2019 visa bulletin, the entire EB-3 category has immediately been made “unavailable” for the remainder of FY2019. This means that the annual limits have been reached on these categories and additional numbers are thus unavailable until the beginning of the next fiscal year. This status is not limited to EB-3 China and EB-3 India. It also includes, effective immediately, the EB-3 Worldwide, EB-3 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, Philippines, and EB-3 Vietnam categories.

In addition to this change, it is also important to flag that several other categories are listed as unavailable for the remainder of the fiscal year including the entirety of EB-4 and EB-4 Religious Workers categories, as well as EB-1 India. EB-1 China is not listed as unavailable but did retrogress 2.5 years due to increased demand.

Unless otherwise advised, applicants should still appear for a scheduled AOS interview. There is a possibility that an officer decides to not proceed with the interview and/or reschedules it for another time. If the interview moves forward and the application is deemed approvable, the officer will request a visa number and that request will subsequently be sent to Charlie Oppenheim’s “pending demand file” at the Department of State. Once this occurs, the visa number will be automatically authorized for use by USCIS, effective the first day of the month in which the applicant’s priority date becomes current.

[lville]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Check-In with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (8-16-19)
Following a review of the dates listed in the September 2019 visa bulletin, the entire EB-3 category has immediately been made “unavailable” for the remainder of FY2019. This means that the annual limits have been reached on these categories and additional numbers are thus unavailable until the beginning of the next fiscal year. This status is not limited to EB-3 China and EB-3 India. It also includes, effective immediately, the EB-3 Worldwide, EB-3 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, EB-3 Mexico, Philippines, and EB-3 Vietnam categories.

In addition to this change, it is also important to flag that several other categories are listed as unavailable for the remainder of the fiscal year including the entirety of EB-4 and EB-4 Religious Workers categories, as well as EB-1 India. EB-1 China is not listed as unavailable but did retrogress 2.5 years due to increased demand.

Unless otherwise advised, applicants should still appear for a scheduled AOS interview. There is a possibility that an officer decides to not proceed with the interview and/or reschedules it for another time. If the interview moves forward and the application is deemed approvable, the officer will request a visa number and that request will subsequently be sent to Charlie Oppenheim’s “pending demand file” at the Department of State. Once this occurs, the visa number will be automatically authorized for use by USCIS, effective the first day of the month in which the applicant’s priority date becomes current.

Crap!!! It doesn't say much about EB2-I movement. Hopefully they publish it soon. Man hope it moves past May 23,2009

[almost]

Hi All,

Anyone seeing any movement on 485 for EB2-I with PD's before May 2nd 2009 at Texas Service center? Seems like Nebraska center is starting to issue approvals for dates into May but TSC hasn't practically seen any movement as per trackitt.

Thanks
Almost

[shekhar_kuruk]

Crap!!! It doesn't say much about EB2-I movement. Hopefully they publish it soon. Man hope it moves past May 23,2009

2 weeks should be possible with the allocation for the new year. You are almost there. Good luck. I am next in line after you ;)

[shekhar_kuruk]

Hi All,

Anyone seeing any movement on 485 for EB2-I with PD's before May 2nd 2009 at Texas Service center? Seems like Nebraska center is starting to issue approvals for dates into May but TSC hasn't practically seen any movement as per trackitt.

Thanks
Almost

TSC has been slow looking at the trackitt data but you should be getting reading for the party. Anytime now.
Get greened and spend some greenbacks and do not forget to donate for a good cause. Time to celebrate. Cheers.

[idliman]

Anyone has updates on the proposed rule eliminating concurrent filing of visa petitions (I-140) and I-485? Originally this rule (1615-AC22) (https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201810&RIN=1615-AC22) was supposed to go into effect next month (Sept 2019). The rejection rates for both I-485 and I-140 are about 8% in 2018. ROW was current for EB2 & EB3 till JUL-2019 bulletin. However, ROW EB1 is retrogressed. With not everyone opting for PP, there has to be a reduction in demand from ROW if this rule goes into effect. Needless to say this would also strongly discourage upgrade/downgrade of EB3/EB2 with a view to file for I485 and obtain ancillary benefits (EAD/AP).

[almost]

Thanks for the response Shekhar. It has been 10+ yrs as of now and there is no longing for a celebration anymore.... At this point I just want this to be over with so that I can move on with the next phase of plans for life :).
I do however intend to do my fair share of additional charity as you have suggested. Wish you the best of luck as well .......... your date doesn't seem to be that far off

[Spectator]

I've updated the PERM data in the FACTS & DATA (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) section with the latest FY2019 Q3 figures.

[jimmys]

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Check in with Charlie on 8/16

[paramjit74]

Anyone has any idea what this means? Can they deny next EAD extension if we travel on AP?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/policymanual/updates/20190819-EmploymentAuthorizationForParolees.pdf

[suninphx]

Anyone has any idea what this means? Can they deny next EAD extension if we travel on AP?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/policymanual/updates/20190819-EmploymentAuthorizationForParolees.pdf

Just read Background and you would know the answer:

Certain foreign nationals may be paroled into the United States under INA 212(d)(5) for urgent humanitarian reasons or significant public benefit. USCIS has discretion to grant these foreign nationals employment authorization. Applicants are not entitled to employment authorization. USCIS determines whether to grant discretionary employment authorization on a case-by-case basis, taking into account all factors and considering the totality of the circumstances of each individual case.

[redsox2009]

Here is the 2019 July DOS data.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
84
07
00
00
40
05
206
342


EB2
12
00
03
11
183
04
176
389



EB3
057
160
151
525
061
012
642
1608


EB4
00
08
00
02
10
16
172
218


EB5
183
051
013
000
085
118
244
694


Total
336
236
167
538
379
155
1440
3251

[Spectator]

Just to add to redsox2009 post, cumulatively, here is the situation for Oct-July (10 months of FY2019).

Country --------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total
China ----------- 578 ---- 150 ---- 229 ------ 7 -- 3,224 --- 4,188
India ----------- 150 ----- 44 -- 1,680 ---- 115 ---- 440 --- 2,429
Mexico ----------- 18 ----- 29 ---- 647 ----- 44 ----- 62 ----- 800
Philippines ------- 1 ---- 173 -- 3,957 ----- 57 ----- 11 --- 4,199
ROW ----------- 1,407 -- 2,859 -- 6,366 -- 1,592 -- 2,969 -- 15,193

Grand Total --- 2,154 -- 3,255 - 12,879 -- 1,815 -- 6,706 -- 26,809

Oct-Jul FY2018 was 24,847.
Full FY2018 was 27,345.


Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
China ----------- 350 -- 2,304 ---- 705 -- 1,313 -- 5,146 --- 9,818
India ----------- 182 ---- 721 ---- 147 -- 3,642 -- 6,117 -- 10,809
Mexico ---------- 982 - 13,209 ---- 613 ---- 843 -- 2,074 -- 17,721
Philippines --- 1,563 -- 2,844 -- 3,792 -- 1,018 -- 2,303 -- 11,520
ROW ---------- 14,871 - 34,203 - 11,858 - 12,809 - 31,012 - 104,753

Grand Total -- 17,948 - 53,281 - 17,115 - 19,625 - 46,652 - 154,621

Oct-Jul FY2018 was 178,295
Full FY2018 was 211,641.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Can anyone direct me to a post or thread that has most current and accurate information on the processing times and issues for F2A for spouse living in India? Basically the equivalent of this thread for F2A. I appreciate your help. I am particularly interested i knowing how the processing times are ever since F2A became current. Has anyone filed 130 since F2A got current and already been approved?

[EB22010Dec]

Redsox and spec, when you are posting items like this, if you could write at least one line explaining what that means, it would be such a great help for people like me who can not make sense of this information.

[Spectator]

Redsox and spec, when you are posting items like this, if you could write at least one line explaining what that means, it would be such a great help for people like me who can not make sense of this information.

This is hardly the first time this data source has been posted.

Try this post (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards) or look back at previous posting on the subject where it has been explained before, such as this one (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62323&viewfull=1#post62323) or this one (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62436&viewfull=1#post62436) and the discussions surrounding them. This post (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62386&viewfull=1#post62386) and those that follow it would also be relevant.

The original raw data can be found here (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html).

redsox2009 has put a lot of effort into compiling the figures each month from the raw data and deserves some thanks for doing so month after month.

There is a point where people have to take some responsibility to educate themselves on the subject matter and not just be spoon fed the data and analysis.


The figures represent the number of visas issued by DOS at consulates around the world.

This contrasts to (and is in addition to) the number of AOS approvals USCIS make for those who have an I-485. For EB, Consular processing accounts for 15-20% of total approvals in a FY.

The long lost USCIS Pending Inventory only included AOS applicants (those still waiting, but not all those waiting). The monthly DOS report shows actual visas issued.

It might be interesting because:

a) It might show evolving trends in the number of EB applicants who are using Consular Processing rather than AOS. For example, EB3-I consular approvals to date for FY2019 are 1,680 for the 10 months reported in FY2019. That contrasts to only 747 for the full FY2018 and just 208 for the full FY2017.

b) Consular processing represents around 94% of all number limited FB approvals. Looking at the progress can give some idea if there are likely to be any unused FB visas in FY2019 that would spill over to EB in FY2020.

[swaugh]

Hi Spec/RedSox2009 - thank you for your efforts!

[GCGCGCGC]

Thank you very much Spec and redsox2009. Appreciate your time and efforts for this blog.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Again apologies for asking the question in this thread. I don't seem to have any other forum or thread that can answer this question better. F2A Final Action date is current, where as Filing Dates are not. This is the only Category with the inverted Dates (everyone is talking about the inversion in the Bond market). Some opinions would be helpful on that.

[Spectator]

Again apologies for asking the question in this thread. I don't seem to have any other forum or thread that can answer this question better. F2A Final Action date is current, where as Filing Dates are not. This is the only Category with the inverted Dates (everyone is talking about the inversion in the Bond market). Some opinions would be helpful on that.
I don't answer this with any certainty.

I think what it means for Consular Processing is:

a) The Current Final Action Date means any existing filed applications are eligible to be approved.

b) New filers must use the Filing Date.


USCIS can interpret as they wish for AOS.

I base this partly on a Shusterman article from a few months ago entitled Check-In with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim (6-21-19):


The across the board advancement to “current” of the F-2A category is perhaps the most noteworthy update on the family-based side of the July 2019 Visa Bulletin. This advancement is attributable to a failure of applicants to respond to the NVC Agent of Choice letters. Interestingly, although the Final Action Date for this category is current, the Date for Filing is March 8, 2019. This was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal year (FY2019).

I don't think the article is available any more, since it seems to be overwritten when the next "Check In" is published.


P.S. As for your previous question, I couldn't find any information about F2A in the forum. But, since the low end processing time for an I-130 is 5 months, it seems unlikely that any submitted since F2A became Current in July would have been approved at this time.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I don't answer this with any certainty.

I think what it means for Consular Processing is:

a) The Current Final Action Date means any existing filed applications are eligible to be approved.

b) New filers must use the Filing Date.


USCIS can interpret as they wish for AOS.

I base this partly on a Shusterman article from a few months ago entitled Check-In with DOSÂ’s Charlie Oppenheim (6-21-19):



I don't think the article is available any more, since it seems to be overwritten when the next "Check In" is published.


P.S. As for your previous question, I couldn't find any information about F2A in the forum. But, since the low end processing time for an I-130 is 5 months, it seems unlikely that any submitted since F2A became Current in July would have been approved at this time.

Thanks a bunch for the reply.

Have a follow up question on this

"this was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal year (FY2019)"

To my knowledge, a Form I-130 has to be first filed and approved(which itself takes anywhere from 5 months to eternity) before a CP or AOS can be filed for. So what does Charlie mean by "this was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to consular filings in this category"?

Again, "Charlie noted that moving the Final Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal year" does Charlie mean that even if the candidates respond to the NVC letters, they will not be approved in the current FY and will only be approved in the next FY?

[Spectator]

Thanks a bunch for the reply.

Have a follow up question on this

"this was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to consular filings in this category. Charlie noted that moving the Final Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal year (FY2019)"

To my knowledge, a Form I-130 has to be first filed and approved(which itself takes anywhere from 5 months to eternity) before a CP or AOS can be filed for. So what does Charlie mean by "this was done to avoid completely opening the floodgates to consular filings in this category"?

Again, "Charlie noted that moving the Final Action Dates to current is intended to spur responses to the NVC letters but is not expected to have any impact on number usage for the current fiscal year" does Charlie mean that even if the candidates respond to the NVC letters, they will not be approved in the current FY and will only be approved in the next FY?

All good and valid points.

It doesn't make a bunch of sense to me either.

I wasn't able to find much on the subject.

[Spectator]

I've spent a fair amount of time copying posts about DOS Consular approval data into a consolidated thread. You can find it here (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards).

I think it's important data that deserves its own thread, rather than being scattered among 100 pages in the EB Calculations thread.

I've included a few discussion posts as well which give context to what the data represents and why it might be useful to look at.

It would be better if all further posts on the subject use this thread. It can be found at Forum / Live Discussion / Counselor-Processing (CP) / Consular Processing Data Published by DOS From March 2017 Onwards.

Here is the link - https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards)

[dreamze]

Received Card production email for both me and my wife on 1st business day of Sept. Emotional journey started 10 years ago finally coming to end. Thanks Q, Spec and others for all your help and support!

[paramjit74]

Received Card production email for both me and my wife on 1st business day of Sept. Emotional journey started 10 years ago finally coming to end. Thanks Q, Spec and others for all your help and support!

Congrats. But as per your profile your PD is 5/31/2009?

[Spectator]

Received Card production email for both me and my wife on 1st business day of Sept. Emotional journey started 10 years ago finally coming to end. Thanks Q, Spec and others for all your help and support!

Congratulations.

[dreamze]

Thanks Spec!

Paramjit > That must be a mistake. My PD is 6th May 2009 and with NSC.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Thanks Spec!

Paramjit > That must be a mistake. My PD is 6th May 2009 and with NSC.

Great news, your GC journey comes to an end. Good luck and make sure to put it to good use.

[shesad]

Hi Iam very new this blog, my PD is Feb 12, 2006 EB3- India, Do you think it will become current in October 2019 VB?

[Suva2001]

Received Card production email for both me and my wife on 1st business day of Sept. Emotional journey started 10 years ago finally coming to end. Thanks Q, Spec and others for all your help and support!

Congratulations

[qesehmk]

Many congratulations dreamze. Despite the bitter wait .. I have come to truly appreciate American people, system, and ideals. I am sure you too will. All the best to you as well as everybody in the queue!
Received Card production email for both me and my wife on 1st business day of Sept. Emotional journey started 10 years ago finally coming to end. Thanks Q, Spec and others for all your help and support!

[shesad]

Please reply to this question.
Hi Iam very new this blog, my PD is Feb 12, 2006 EB3- India, Do you think it will become current in October 2019 VB?

[kb2013]

Hi Iam very new this blog, my PD is Feb 12, 2006 EB3- India, Do you think it will become current in October 2019 VB?

Why haven't you filed I485 yet? Your filing date was current for a long time..

[shesad]

I am in Canada and I did not get letter from NVC to pay the fees and other stuff, miscommunication and my fault.. It was current up to July, do you think it will become current again by October? Appreciate reply.

[skpanda]

I am in Canada and I did not get letter from NVC to pay the fees and other stuff, miscommunication and my fault.. It was current up to July, do you think it will become current again by October? Appreciate reply.


As per the recent Bulletin commentary and chekin with CO posts in this thread recently - it should be current in Oct 2019 bulletin. Good Luck!

[kb2013]

I am in Canada and I did not get letter from NVC to pay the fees and other stuff, miscommunication and my fault.. It was current up to July, do you think it will become current again by October? Appreciate reply.

Whatever sense you can make of this:
"Every effort will be made to return these final action dates to (at least) the dates which had originally been announced for August. " Aug EB3 FAD was 01Jan2006

[GCGCGCGC]

Congratulations!!!

[jimmys]

Whatever sense you can make of this:
"Every effort will be made to return these final action dates to (at least) the dates which had originally been announced for August. " Aug EB3 FAD was 01Jan2006

I don't think it's August EB3-I dates itself. When Aug-2019 bulletin was released, he announced in Oct-2020 he will try to bring EB3-I dates back to July 1,2009. He reiterated the same in Sep-2019 bulletin.

[gcpursuit]

Spec and other gurus,

When will we know for sure about the spillover numbers from FB? I appreciate all the good data you all publish here.

[shesad]

Thanks, so in October VB it will go back to July 2019 VB dates.

[Spectator]

Spec and other gurus,

When will we know for sure about the spillover numbers from FB? I appreciate all the good data you all publish here.

When DOS publish the September 2019 CP figures towards the end of October 2019 we should have a reasonable idea because CP has represented about 94% of all FB approvals in recent years.

Full confirmation will only come when DOS publish the FY2019 Immigration Statistics. That may be as early as January 2020.

That's quick, when you consider USCIS still hasn't even published their Yearbook of Immigration Statistics for FY2018 which ended nearly 12 months ago!!

[gcpursuit]

When DOS publish the September 2019 CP figures towards the end of October 2019 we should have a reasonable idea because CP has represented about 94% of all FB approvals in recent years.

Full confirmation will only come when DOS publish the FY2019 Immigration Statistics. That may be as early as January 2020.

That's quick, when you consider USCIS still hasn't even published their Yearbook of Immigration Statistics for FY2018 which ended nearly 12 months ago!!

thank you Spec. I hope there is some good news in terms of FB spillover when it gets released.

[Suva2001]

When DOS publish the September 2019 CP figures towards the end of October 2019 we should have a reasonable idea because CP has represented about 94% of all FB approvals in recent years.

Full confirmation will only come when DOS publish the FY2019 Immigration Statistics. That may be as early as January 2020.

That's quick, when you consider USCIS still hasn't even published their Yearbook of Immigration Statistics for FY2018 which ended nearly 12 months ago!!

Are you talking about this one below?

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV-Part2.pdf

Thanks

[Spectator]

Are you talking about this one below?

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV-Part2.pdf

Thanks

I mentioned 3 different sources in the post.

To which one are you referring?

Your link is to a DOS Visa Statistics report. I probably should have referred to it as such, rather than DOS Immigration Statistics.

If you mean the USCIS (DHS) Yearbook of Immigration Statistics report, it would be mentioned here (https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook).

[desibhai]

I got RFE for Supplement J missing in June 19 and replied back in Aug 19.After that I have received email alert that USCIS have received RFE reply in Aug 3rd Week but 7 days later another RFE issue which is exactly same like before that Supplement J missing.
I don't know what to do here ? Should I reply again this RFE or open SR ?

[desibhai]

PD Eb2 Apr 2019. I have received RFE in Jul 2019 that Supplement J not provided. So we sent reply in Aug 2019. We received notification that response to RFE received. After 7 days we received exactly same RFE(Supplement J missing) again with new dates.
Please advice if anyone seen like this before. Should I reply again to this RFE ? or Is there anyway to approach USCIS on this matter about duplicate RFE ?

[delorean_doc]

Hi folks, I am a new member to this forum. The wealth of information over here is just amazing. I was going through all the 215 preceding pages in the hopes of finding an answer to my question which is "Approximately when will make priority date become current? An year/2 years/3 years? My priority data is 2/24/11 (EB2 India)".

Its possible that several of you may have already answered similar questions in the past...I guess my eyes started glazing over after the first hundred-odd pages of content. If any of you can help me navigate to a page within this site which answers questions like the one I asked or can weigh with your thoughts on when there would be light at the end of this (never ending) tunnel, I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks in advance

[shekhar_kuruk]

PD Eb2 Apr 2019. I have received RFE in Jul 2019 that Supplement J not provided. So we sent reply in Aug 2019. We received notification that response to RFE received. After 7 days we received exactly same RFE(Supplement J missing) again with new dates.
Please advice if anyone seen like this before. Should I reply again to this RFE ? or Is there anyway to approach USCIS on this matter about duplicate RFE ?

That's a difficult one to answer, once you receive an RFE, USCIS will expect a reply. You really need a lawyer for this one. But raise a SR and see if you can get some help on this one.
Good luck.

[imdeng]

The simplest approach would be to just respond again - you already have all the documentation. Its just a question of another postage and some labor and corresponding attorney fees. What is the pov of your attorney here?


PD Eb2 Apr 2019. I have received RFE in Jul 2019 that Supplement J not provided. So we sent reply in Aug 2019. We received notification that response to RFE received. After 7 days we received exactly same RFE(Supplement J missing) again with new dates.
Please advice if anyone seen like this before. Should I reply again to this RFE ? or Is there anyway to approach USCIS on this matter about duplicate RFE ?

[imdeng]

Don't think anybody has a good handle on a 2011 date right now. The worst case scenario - which also happens to be status-quo - can be something horrible like ~10+ years if EB2I only gets its regular quota every year. Your options of 1/2/3 years made me chuckle (sad chuckle!) - we might not even get out of 2009 in 3 years!

If we get a recession in 2020 like it seems like we might and it lasts for some time then the timeline will accelerate somewhat.


Hi folks, I am a new member to this forum. The wealth of information over here is just amazing. I was going through all the 215 preceding pages in the hopes of finding an answer to my question which is "Approximately when will make priority date become current? An year/2 years/3 years? My priority data is 2/24/11 (EB2 India)".

Its possible that several of you may have already answered similar questions in the past...I guess my eyes started glazing over after the first hundred-odd pages of content. If any of you can help me navigate to a page within this site which answers questions like the one I asked or can weigh with your thoughts on when there would be light at the end of this (never ending) tunnel, I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks in advance

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Is it VB supposed to be released 3rd Friday?

[Raj0687]

Is it VB supposed to be released 3rd Friday?
Few years ago CO said VB is just a courtesy thing that the agency is doing, otherwise they could publish wrong, revoke it anytime and not required to publish at all.
or,
DoS/USCIS may have found that some people are gaming the system using the VB, so they decided not publish it.

could be one of it, free country and land of laws bro.

[jimmys]

Is it VB supposed to be released 3rd Friday?

DoS have until Oct 1,2019 to publish October 2019 Visa Bulletin. If they do it earlier, they're doing us a favor. There's no date or day before Oct 1,2019 that they have to oblige.

[delguy]

They will do whatever can make life of a legal immigrants difficult.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

DoS have until Oct 1,2019 to publish October 2019 Visa Bulletin. If they do it earlier, they're doing us a favor. There's no date or day before Oct 1,2019 that they have to oblige.

Makes sense. I guess there is no benefit in releasing it early other than giving some extra lead time to the applicants to get their documents ready.

[canada]

October visa bulletin out

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-october-2019.html


FAD

Eb2 India-12th May 2009
Eb3-India 1st January,2009
Eb1-India-1st January,2015


Employment First:

WORLDWIDE: Up to three months

China: Up to three months

India: Little if any forward movement

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current

China: Up to two months

India: Up to one week

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Current

China: Little if any forward movement

India: Little if any forward movement

Mexico: Will remain at the Worldwide date

Philippines: Up to several months

[idliman]

October visa bulletin out

EB1I FA -- 01JAN15 (Same dates as Jun19, Jul19 and Aug19 bulletins)
EB2I FA -- 12MAY09 (+4 Days)
EB3I FA -- 01JAN09 (Same days as Oct18 and Nov18 bulletins)
If you remember, last year EB3I FA was gradually moved. Then it had one and two month movements before it briefly overtook EB2I. Nothing exciting. Everyone get back to work.

[lville]

Considering they moved filing dates by one month for EB2-I, I hope they accept filing dates. What do ya think?

[canada]

EB1I FA -- 01JAN15 (Same dates as Jun19, Jul19 and Aug19 bulletins)
EB2I FA -- 12MAY09 (+4 Days)
EB3I FA -- 01JAN09 (Same days as Oct18 and Nov18 bulletins)
If you remember, last year EB3I FA was gradually moved. Then it had one and two month movements before it briefly overtook EB2I. Nothing exciting. Everyone get back to work.

Candidates who have EAD through 2012 movement under EB2 got their EAD who have PDs until March 2010. Now the EB3 filing dates were moved until february 2010. So there is no incentive for the EB2 candidates to downgrade. Only few people who did not get EAD and have the option to downgrade might consider it. So yeah nothing exciting... its just back to work until June 2020

[iatiam]

October visa bulletin out

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2020/visa-bulletin-for-october-2019.html


FAD

Eb2 India-12th May 2009
Eb3-India 1st January,2009
Eb1-India-1st January,2015


Employment First:

WORLDWIDE: Up to three months

China: Up to three months

India: Little if any forward movement

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current

China: Up to two months

India: Up to one week

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Current

China: Little if any forward movement

India: Little if any forward movement

Mexico: Will remain at the Worldwide date

Philippines: Up to several months

Basically, both EB1I and EB3I are in bad shape. Wonder what happened to those predictions about EB3I zooming past EB2I.

Iatiam

[canada]

Basically, both EB1I and EB3I are in bad shape. Wonder what happened to those predictions about EB3I zooming past EB2I.

Iatiam

Without all the information about Pending Inventory etc,. there is no point in predictions and analysis. If the dates are moving in leaps and bounds or not moving, we can make an informed opinion... so there is no point in believing, relying on these predictions... that's what I understood in the last few months

[lville]

Yay!!! Looks like they are accepting filing dates this time. Finally May 22, 2009. It's been a Long wait. I feel even to get EAD/AP I'll be lucky. Haven't traveled home for last 6 yrs. Every time I go out, I'm afraid of H1 interview. LOL

[IamGSN]

Yay!!! Looks like they are accepting filing dates this time. Finally May 22, 2009. It's been a Long wait.

Yep!!!!

@Gurus : Mine is 9th July 2009. Please suggest if it is better to file in EB3-I or wait for EB2-I to move. Last year, I missed it thinking EB2-I would move and wasted one year.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Got a call from one my close friends (PD 2009 who already became a citizen last month) who was really excited for me that the immigration bill is going to pass tomorrow? Is this HR1044 in Senate now? I though it got blocked in Senate so did not pay too much attention. Are there any implications to EB2/EB3 predictions because of this?

[AceMan]

Yep!!!!

@Gurus : Mine is 9th July 2009. Please suggest if it is better to file in EB3-I or wait for EB2-I to move. Last year, I missed it thinking EB2-I would move and wasted one year.

Without demand data info, nothing can be predicted for sure. If you already have an EAD I recommend stay put. Else you can downgrade and get the EAD.

[jimmys]

Basically, both EB1I and EB3I are in bad shape. Wonder what happened to those predictions about EB3I zooming past EB2I.

Iatiam

At the start of FY 19, DoS was optimistic about horizontal spillover to EB3I. But that didn't happen due to spike in the EB3-ROW filings last spring. To add more misery, the consular processing numbers were much higher than the average. These two factors turned the start of FY 20 to be more realistic.

With only 2800 visas at disposal, it's just a positive sign that it's back up to 2009. It all depends on how ROW demand shows up during the year. With only 2800 visas, I don't see EB3 going too far in this FY.

I don't know if there are any unused FB visas that are coming to EB categories.

EB3-Philippines was current for a month (and close to current for sometime as well) or so in last FY and it's now back to 2017. What happened?

[lville]

Since my EAD date is current, my lawyer sent me list of documents that I need to send him back. In there it says to complete form I-693.

Here are my important questions:

1: Does medical need to be done ASAP while EAD date is current or I can take my time with it and send it later ?

2: Does anyone know any Docs in Seattle are that will be able to get me in quickly ? The closest one to my town said $1000 and wait for another month.

Thank you

[jimmys]

Since my EAD date is current, my lawyer sent me list of documents that I need to send him back. In there it says to complete form I-693.

Here are my important questions:

1: Does medical need to be done ASAP while EAD date is current or I can take my time with it and send it later ?

2: Does anyone know any Docs in Seattle are that will be able to get me in quickly ? The closest one to my town said $1000 and wait for another month.

Thank you

1. You don't have to send in medicals with I-485. If you don't send in, you will get an RFE (A pink courtesy letter). You have to wait for your RFE before sending anything to USCIS. Then, you can either carry it while you're called for interview or send it as per the instructions in the letter.

[srimurthy]

Got a call from one my close friends (PD 2009 who already became a citizen last month) who was really excited for me that the immigration bill is going to pass tomorrow? Is this HR1044 in Senate now? I though it got blocked in Senate so did not pay too much attention. Are there any implications to EB2/EB3 predictions because of this?

look and follow the Bills and Rules thread

[akshaya8]

Why EB3 philippines gets more than 7% ? This year is those rules trigger for EB2/EB3 India to get more than 7% due to EB1 India retrogression, as EB1 India usage limited to 7%?

[qesehmk]

Because USCIS in its infinite wisdom interprets 7% rule across EB and FB and says they are underutilizing in FB and so allows them to overutilize in EB.
Why EB3 philippines gets more than 7% ? This year is those rules trigger for EB2/EB3 India to get more than 7% due to EB1 India retrogression, as EB1 India usage limited to 7%?

[EB32010]

http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-as-we-begin-fy2020/

I think all Indian categories are royally screwed.

[Airbender]

I have a PD of 07/29/2009 India. I just successfully upgraded to EB1A with updated I-140 application. I am excited about next step for filing I-485 as I have never been able to file I-485 before. Dont ask me why. Looking at trackitt it seems 485 approval is taking close to a year. Its not clear to me if it is due to visas not being available or just administrative delays.

Questions :

1) How much time it takes to get an EAD after applying I-485 ?
2) Is priority date being "current" a requirement for an interview to get scheduled ?
3) How much time it takes to get an interview to get scheduled ?
4) It seems if priority date is current for someone getting interviewed, time to GC is 2-4 weeks. Is this true ?
5) Gurus - When do you see EB1 dates become unavailable ?

[kb2013]

I have a PD of 07/29/2009 India. I just successfully upgraded to EB1A with updated I-140 application. I am excited about next step for filing I-485 as I have never been able to file I-485 before. Dont ask me why. Looking at trackitt it seems 485 approval is taking close to a year. Its not clear to me if it is due to visas not being available or just administrative delays.

Questions :

1) How much time it takes to get an EAD after applying I-485 ?
2) Is priority date being "current" a requirement for an interview to get scheduled ?
3) How much time it takes to get an interview to get scheduled ?
4) It seems if priority date is current for someone getting interviewed, time to GC is 2-4 weeks. Is this true ?
5) Gurus - When do you see EB1 dates become unavailable ?

< >

[lville]

I have a PD of 07/29/2009 India. I just successfully upgraded to EB1A with updated I-140 application. I am excited about next step for filing I-485 as I have never been able to file I-485 before. Dont ask me why. Looking at trackitt it seems 485 approval is taking close to a year. Its not clear to me if it is due to visas not being available or just administrative delays.

Questions :

1) How much time it takes to get an EAD after applying I-485 ?
2) Is priority date being "current" a requirement for an interview to get scheduled ?
3) How much time it takes to get an interview to get scheduled ?
4) It seems if priority date is current for someone getting interviewed, time to GC is 2-4 weeks. Is this true ?
5) Gurus - When do you see EB1 dates become unavailable ?

Good Questions! Same here. Now they are accepting filing dates and My PD is EB2-I May 22, 2009. Yesterday I sent all requested papers to my lawyer to file I-485. I know I don't have to do Medicals but I got it done Yesterday and waiting for the results. I was told by the Dr they will most likely sign the medicals next week and give it to me. They did not do any TB test. Is it now done by blood test ? Bcuz they took my blood and urine sample ? I just hope I'm not positive for TB. If positive then I'll have to go back for another tests and that will delay me sending medicals to Lawyer. I really want to send my file as complete as possible by end of next week so that they are able to file I-485 first/second week of October. My biggest worry is how long does it take to get EAD/AP. Most likely my PD should be current by Jan 2020.

[jimmar]

TB test is done through blood test. You can submit the medical records during the interview, so its better to focus on I 485 application now.

[newyorker123]

Esteemed Gurus, need help on the following:

I filed an EB1A (I140 and concurrent I485). I got an EAD based on the I485, which I did not use.
Subsequently, the I140 received an RFE, and was denied after RFE response.
My lawyer told me that the I485 will be denied too, as the base I140 has been denied.
Quite a few months have elapsed since then.

Now, I have received an RFE and an interview notice with actual interview date based on the I485 ! Unable to contact old attorney, he might be on long leave. Will consult another lawyer, but wanted some inputs from people here. If I140 was denied, why is USCIS sending me an I485 interview notice ? Should I just ignore ?

[jimmar]

It must be a system error, if your I-140 is already denied then there is no point in attending the interview.

[kb2013]

Esteemed Gurus, need help on the following:

I filed an EB1A (I140 and concurrent I485). I got an EAD based on the I485, which I did not use.
Subsequently, the I140 received an RFE, and was denied after RFE response.
My lawyer told me that the I485 will be denied too, as the base I140 has been denied.
Quite a few months have elapsed since then.

Now, I have received an RFE and an interview notice with actual interview date based on the I485 ! Unable to contact old attorney, he might be on long leave. Will consult another lawyer, but wanted some inputs from people here. If I140 was denied, why is USCIS sending me an I485 interview notice ? Should I just ignore ?

What is the harm in attending the interview? Let them explicitly clarify in the interview if they did intend to deny. Since it is all discretionary, you may very well get approved after interview.

[jimmys]

Don't ever disregard your I-485 interview notice. Show up for the interview and let the IO decide what it was.

[newyorker123]

Don't ever disregard your I-485 interview notice. Show up for the interview and let the IO decide what it was.

I would need to do the medical tests to attend the interview. So there is a monetary component too.

[gs1968]

Esteemed Gurus, need help on the following:

I filed an EB1A (I140 and concurrent I485). I got an EAD based on the I485, which I did not use.
Subsequently, the I140 received an RFE, and was denied after RFE response.
My lawyer told me that the I485 will be denied too, as the base I140 has been denied.
Quite a few months have elapsed since then.

Now, I have received an RFE and an interview notice with actual interview date based on the I485 ! Unable to contact old attorney, he might be on long leave. Will consult another lawyer, but wanted some inputs from people here. If I140 was denied, why is USCIS sending me an I485 interview notice ? Should I just ignore ?

I agree with the others. Human mentality is always to look back and think what might have been! I would do due diligence and would go to the interview with everything lined up. All you are doing is obeying their instructions to show up for the interview at the date and time specified. The worst possible scenario is a confirmation of the denial which you already know in which case nothing is lost. I am a physician and nothing irks me more than no-shows to appointments. If you do not show up it might be a negative point on your record. Obviously an attorney would be able to give you more precise advice

[IamGSN]

I am filing for AOS based on Filing date, my attorney suggests to have medical done and submit it along with AOS applications. She recommends to avoid unnecessary RFE though it costs affront. She mentioned that it's up to me to decide.

Guys, what is your suggestion, I am confused? My PD is 07/09/2009 under EB3 India. Not sure how long does it would take get the Interview date.

[anfu02]

I am filing for AOS based on Filing date, my attorney suggests to have medical done and submit it along with AOS applications. She recommends to avoid unnecessary RFE though it costs affront. She mentioned that it's up to me to decide.

Guys, what is your suggestion, I am confused? My PD is 07/09/2009 under EB3 India. Not sure how long does it would take get the Interview date.

I know it is additional money and medicals are valid only for a year, in the event that your date gets current you will be thankful for it since you are already ahead of the line.

[desibhai]

Effective November 1, 2018, the I-693 medical report will be valid for two years from the date of submission to USCIS

[IamGSN]

Effective November 1, 2018, the I-693 medical report will be valid for two years from the date of submission to USCIS

Oh.. that's good then

[gc_dedo]

PD - Feb 2011, EB2
I changed my employer few months ago and about to start GC process again with the new employer. My previous I-140 is still valid. GC is too far, but I have a question - when my PD becomes current, can I use that I-140 (with previous employer) for adjustment of status without H1 transfer to them again? Or do I have to be on their payroll for filing I-485?

[redsox2009]

Q3 Stats were released by the USCIS

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY19Q3.pdf

Overall pending applications came down, and end of Q3 Total number of 485 applications approved AOS and COS are 114915.

27003 GC's can be issued in Q4 which is ending in 4 days and of these 4045 were already issued by COS in July and August.

485 rejections are aligned with the I-140 rejection numbers.

77151 applications were received by USCIS and 91357 applications were approved. 5898 applications were denied.

[this2shallpass]

Thanks
Are there any indications of a potential spillover from family category yet ?

[Spectator]

Thanks
Are there any indications of a potential spillover from family category yet ?

The period October - August in FY2019 had 25,235 fewer Consular issued visas for FB than the same period in FY2018.

Given that around 94% of the total approvals for FB are made at Consulates rather than via AOS and an I-485, this is a promising sign.

We'll know the final number of CP approvals in about a month, but the AOS figures probably won't be available until sometime in January at the earliest.

You can follow the Consular Processing figures in this thread (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards?p=62905&viewfull=1#post62905).

[rocketfast]

Based on Spec's post #5199 where he shows what will happen to a hypothetical 10,000 spillover from FB, this is what will likely happen if we receive 25,000 spillover from FB

EB2ROW: ~14 months of supply is currently needed to handle the 12 months of demand as of 2019 . And with the same demand growth, we will be looking at a need of 15 months of supply to handle demand in FY2020.

So, EB2ROW in FY2020 needs 38,610 [30,888 is available but extra 3 months of unsatisfied demand needs supply] green cards to satisfy its demand.

EB2 will get 7150 extra GCs from FB. EB2ROW will get an extra 5150 Green Cards which it will gobble up. So no spillovers coming to EB2-I from EB2-ROW.

EB2-I in itself will get 500 extra GCs on its own which will meet approximately 10 days of EB2-I demand in 2009.

The demand in EB3 as a whole is unknown. So it is not clear how the extra 7150 extra GC that will come from FB will be used up. One can only hope.

[greenzone]

Q/Spec and other experts,

Based on July 2018, can we guess current pending numbers for EB2I?

Is there a way to find pending numbers, including field offices using FIOA?

[mokrisin]

What does this 500 extra GCs for EB2I mean? Where is it coming from and when will that be applied? My PD is 18th May - 6 days away from Oct 2019 Bulletin. It looks so close but so far away. Do I get help with these extra 500 GCs?

Thanks for any insights.



Based on Spec's post #5199 where he shows what will happen to a hypothetical 10,000 spillover from FB, this is what will likely happen if we receive 25,000 spillover from FB

EB2ROW: ~14 months of supply is currently needed to handle the 12 months of demand as of 2019 . And with the same demand growth, we will be looking at a need of 15 months of supply to handle demand in FY2020.

So, EB2ROW in FY2020 needs 38,610 [30,888 is available but extra 3 months of unsatisfied demand needs supply] green cards to satisfy its demand.

EB2 will get 7150 extra GCs from FB. EB2ROW will get an extra 5150 Green Cards which it will gobble up. So no spillovers coming to EB2-I from EB2-ROW.

EB2-I in itself will get 500 extra GCs on its own which will meet approximately 10 days of EB2-I demand in 2009.

The demand in EB3 as a whole is unknown. So it is not clear how the extra 7150 extra GC that will come from FB will be used up. One can only hope.

[mokrisin]

Just trying to understand when my PD -18-May-2009 EB2I would be current. Was there any spill over given to EB2I in September? Any insight on the pending inventory estimates as of Oct 1st 2019?



Based on Spec's post #5199 where he shows what will happen to a hypothetical 10,000 spillover from FB, this is what will likely happen if we receive 25,000 spillover from FB

EB2ROW: ~14 months of supply is currently needed to handle the 12 months of demand as of 2019 . And with the same demand growth, we will be looking at a need of 15 months of supply to handle demand in FY2020.

So, EB2ROW in FY2020 needs 38,610 [30,888 is available but extra 3 months of unsatisfied demand needs supply] green cards to satisfy its demand.

EB2 will get 7150 extra GCs from FB. EB2ROW will get an extra 5150 Green Cards which it will gobble up. So no spillovers coming to EB2-I from EB2-ROW.

EB2-I in itself will get 500 extra GCs on its own which will meet approximately 10 days of EB2-I demand in 2009.

The demand in EB3 as a whole is unknown. So it is not clear how the extra 7150 extra GC that will come from FB will be used up. One can only hope.

[iatiam]

What does this 500 extra GCs for EB2I mean? Where is it coming from and when will that be applied? My PD is 18th May - 6 days away from Oct 2019 Bulletin. It looks so close but so far away. Do I get help with these extra 500 GCs?

Thanks for any insights.

I think you will be current whether the SO is applied or not. You have waited so far. I think you can wait for a month or two more.

Iatiam

[NJMavarick]

Fwiw, my priority date is march 2011 and worst case scenario for me is 11 years of wait time.

You must be aware that eb5-i currently has a backlog of 7 years. Does the conditional greencard given help your son avoid going out of status?

Just curious, how did you derive to 11 years of wait time?

[srimurthy]

Just curious, how did you derive to 11 years of wait time?
May be he meant a best case of 11 years wait :)

[rocketfast]

Just curious, how did you derive to 11 years of wait time?

The calculations below assume that EB2-I and EB3-I are one queue - I think it is a good assumption atleast for people with PD in March 2011. So worst case supply for EB2+EB3 is 5600 GCs a year.

* EB2-I remaining in 2009 after May = ~9000.

* EB3-I remaining in 2009. (The assumption I make based on various factors is that 30% of Eb2-I is EB3-I. And the fact that CO thinks it will make it close to Feb 2010 at end of year) = ~3000.

* India based Perms applied in 2010 (that got approved) = 22,361 ; GC demand = ~44,500. Here, the demand is backloaded to the second half of the year.

* India based Perms applied in 2011 (that got approved) = 30,024; So, first 3 month GC demand is ~15000 (7500 * 2).

So total worst case demand is 71,500.

I am making an assumption that 10,000 has been demand destructed or duplicate filings. I think the duplicate filings increase in later years, but is not so much in 2010. I vaguely remember that the conclusion here was that ~6000 people were porting from EB3-I to EB2-I every year in early 2010s . I also think based on consular demand in EB3-I last year, it is fair to assume that the people that moved back to India will come back via Desi Bodyshopping companies.

So wait time is 61,500/5600 = 11 years.

[srimurthy]

PD - Feb 2011, EB2
I changed my employer few months ago and about to start GC process again with the new employer. My previous I-140 is still valid. GC is too far, but I have a question - when my PD becomes current, can I use that I-140 (with previous employer) for adjustment of status without H1 transfer to them again? Or do I have to be on their payroll for filing I-485?

As Q shared the GC is for future employment, I guess if Company A is still active and ready to hire you back when GC is approved you can use I-140 from A. But if you want to move back when filing for I-485 itself when dates become current I guess you have to get the H1 transfer to change to EAD after you get the EAD. Just my thoughts

[deedee]

* EB3-I remaining in 2009. (The assumption I make based on various factors is that 30% of Eb2-I is EB3-I. And the fact that CO thinks it will make it close to Feb 2010 at end of year) = ~3000.


Hi rocketfast, did CO say that EB3 may reach feb2010 at the end of this FY? When did he indicate this? Looks like I have missed that completely.

[NJMavarick]

The calculations below assume that EB2-I and EB3-I are one queue - I think it is a good assumption atleast for people with PD in March 2011. So worst case supply for EB2+EB3 is 5600 GCs a year.

* EB2-I remaining in 2009 after May = ~9000.

* EB3-I remaining in 2009. (The assumption I make based on various factors is that 30% of Eb2-I is EB3-I. And the fact that CO thinks it will make it close to Feb 2010 at end of year) = ~3000.

* India based Perms applied in 2010 (that got approved) = 22,361 ; GC demand = ~44,500. Here, the demand is backloaded to the second half of the year.

* India based Perms applied in 2011 (that got approved) = 30,024; So, first 3 month GC demand is ~15000 (7500 * 2).

So total worst case demand is 71,500.

I am making an assumption that 10,000 has been demand destructed or duplicate filings. I think the duplicate filings increase in later years, but is not so much in 2010. I vaguely remember that the conclusion here was that ~6000 people were porting from EB3-I to EB2-I every year in early 2010s . I also think based on consular demand in EB3-I last year, it is fair to assume that the people that moved back to India will come back via Desi Bodyshopping companies.

So wait time is 61,500/5600 = 11 years.

Thanks! In case of my calculation, the demand destruction was set @30%. EB3 ratio was 25%. The difference would probably come down to couple of years. Though I feel EB3 would get the GC sooner than EB2 as not everyone would be able to downgrade and I set the downgrade % to 40%!

[TheLureoftheGreen]

The calculations below assume that EB2-I and EB3-I are one queue - I think it is a good assumption atleast for people with PD in March 2011. So worst case supply for EB2+EB3 is 5600 GCs a year.

* EB2-I remaining in 2009 after May = ~9000.

* EB3-I remaining in 2009. (The assumption I make based on various factors is that 30% of Eb2-I is EB3-I. And the fact that CO thinks it will make it close to Feb 2010 at end of year) = ~3000.

* India based Perms applied in 2010 (that got approved) = 22,361 ; GC demand = ~44,500. Here, the demand is backloaded to the second half of the year.

* India based Perms applied in 2011 (that got approved) = 30,024; So, first 3 month GC demand is ~15000 (7500 * 2).

So total worst case demand is 71,500.

I am making an assumption that 10,000 has been demand destructed or duplicate filings. I think the duplicate filings increase in later years, but is not so much in 2010. I vaguely remember that the conclusion here was that ~6000 people were porting from EB3-I to EB2-I every year in early 2010s . I also think based on consular demand in EB3-I last year, it is fair to assume that the people that moved back to India will come back via Desi Bodyshopping companies.

So wait time is 61,500/5600 = 11 years.

I'd like to estimate my wait time based on my EB2I priority of July 7, 2009. But I do not know the sources to access some of this information. Can you please point me to a thread that explains this calculation in greater detail, and identifies the sources?

Specifically, I need to know the following:

1. Where can I find the GC Demand from May 12, 2009 through July 8, 2009?

2. How is this demand different from, say EB2 India remaining between May 12, 2009 and July 8, 2009? Is the source for "EB2 India remaining" the dated July 2018 Pending I-485 Inventory?

3. I see from Permchecker.com (https://www.permchecker.com/05-12-2009/to/07-07-2009) that 1,851 Indian beneficiaries' petitions were certified (between May 12th and July 7th). Is this a fair source for use with with the calculations you illustrate?

Thanks!

[iatiam]

I'd like to estimate my wait time based on my EB2I priority of July 7, 2009. But I do not know the sources to access some of this information. Can you please point me to a thread that explains this calculation in greater detail, and identifies the sources?

Specifically, I need to know the following:

1. Where can I find the GC Demand from May 12, 2009 through July 8, 2009?

2. How is this demand different from, say EB2 India remaining between May 12, 2009 and July 8, 2009? Is the source for "EB2 India remaining" the dated July 2018 Pending I-485 Inventory?

3. I see from Permchecker.com (https://www.permchecker.com/05-12-2009/to/07-07-2009) that 1,851 Indian beneficiaries' petitions were certified (between May 12th and July 7th). Is this a fair source for use with with the calculations you illustrate?

Thanks!

The 485 inventory is your best bet. While some people argue the data is old or inaccurate, this is the best set of data we have. If you look at the period between May 2009 and July 2009, the pending inventory numbers are fairly consistent. If we allocate about 3,000 visas per year per country per EB category, you can see that your dates will be current this FY. Of course there are other factors: there might be duplicate filing, abandoned cases, FB spillover or reverse porting. All these are positive things. Negative factor is those people who could never file for 485 before and who are filing or those pesky consular processing cases. Either ways, it's very safe to say you will be current this FY.

Iatiam

[rocketfast]

Specifically, I need to know the following:

1. Where can I find the GC Demand from May 12, 2009 through July 8, 2009?


I don't think anyone knows a data source that can accurately provide you such micro-details.


2. Is the source for "EB2 India remaining" the dated July 2018 Pending I-485 Inventory?

Yes. For someone like me who has a priority date a couple of years down the line, a few hundred here and there does not make a difference.



3. I see from Permchecker.com (https://www.permchecker.com/05-12-2009/to/07-07-2009) that 1,851 Indian beneficiaries' petitions were certified (between May 12th and July 7th). Is this a fair source for use with with the calculations you illustrate?

I think that gives the people that were certified during that time. But PD is when people applied at a particular time. Since 2 applicants that apply on the same day can get PERM certified at different dates, you can't use it.

[canada]

The calculations below assume that EB2-I and EB3-I are one queue - I think it is a good assumption atleast for people with PD in March 2011. So worst case supply for EB2+EB3 is 5600 GCs a year.

* EB2-I remaining in 2009 after May = ~9000.

* EB3-I remaining in 2009. (The assumption I make based on various factors is that 30% of Eb2-I is EB3-I. And the fact that CO thinks it will make it close to Feb 2010 at end of year) = ~3000.

* India based Perms applied in 2010 (that got approved) = 22,361 ; GC demand = ~44,500. Here, the demand is backloaded to the second half of the year.

* India based Perms applied in 2011 (that got approved) = 30,024; So, first 3 month GC demand is ~15000 (7500 * 2).

So total worst case demand is 71,500.

I am making an assumption that 10,000 has been demand destructed or duplicate filings. I think the duplicate filings increase in later years, but is not so much in 2010. I vaguely remember that the conclusion here was that ~6000 people were porting from EB3-I to EB2-I every year in early 2010s . I also think based on consular demand in EB3-I last year, it is fair to assume that the people that moved back to India will come back via Desi Bodyshopping companies.

So wait time is 61,500/5600 = 11 years.


EB2 India after May has 7494 cases as per PI --Did you get 9000 because of adding consular cases? Curious to know. Thanks

[rocketfast]

EB2 India after May has 7494 cases as per PI --Did you get 9000 because of adding consular cases? Curious to know. Thanks

When I said "After May", I meant, "After May 1st". Looks like many guys in July-Aug-Sept 2009 are very jittery about even 100 hundred here and there!

[TheLureoftheGreen]

The 485 inventory is your best bet. While some people argue the data is old or inaccurate, this is the best set of data we have. If you look at the period between May 2009 and July 2009, the pending inventory numbers are fairly consistent. If we allocate about 3,000 visas per year per country per EB category, you can see that your dates will be current this FY. Of course there are other factors: there might be duplicate filing, abandoned cases, FB spillover or reverse porting. All these are positive things. Negative factor is those people who could never file for 485 before and who are filing or those pesky consular processing cases. Either ways, it's very safe to say you will be current this FY.

Iatiam

Thank you, Iatiam! Re: Consular Processing, I recall Spec's post noting that, for EB2I, CP represents a relatively (compared to EB3) small proportion of total GCs. I believe just about 5 percent... However, I do think that there are more pending cases in May-June than there were in March-April, which cleared in FY18. Not sure I'll be current without any spills, or accounting for duplicates you mention, given such a large chunk of May-June pending cases ahead of me.

[this2shallpass]

The period October - August in FY2019 had 25,235 fewer Consular issued visas for FB than the same period in FY2018.

Given that around 94% of the total approvals for FB are made at Consulates rather than via AOS and an I-485, this is a promising sign.

We'll know the final number of CP approvals in about a month, but the AOS figures probably won't be available until sometime in January at the earliest.

You can follow the Consular Processing figures in this thread (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards?p=62905&viewfull=1#post62905).

Thanks spec . You are a great source of information.
What is your position on the removal of country caps and s386 ? Just curious

[Kraksi123]

Question to experts and other experienced people on this forum.

My PD is August 2009 (EB2I) and wondering if downgrading my case from EB2 to EB3 category will be possible? I have an approved PERM in EB3 from my previous employer and the date of filling for I485 in EB3 category is past my priority date (August 2009). Let me know if I can file my I-485 application concurrently with the new EB3 I-140.

TIA

[deedee]

Hi rocketfast, did CO say that EB3 may reach feb2010 at the end of this FY? When did he indicate this? Looks like I have missed that completely.

Hi folks.. Does any one have information on what CO said about EB3 reaching Feb2010 by the end of FY? Thanks in advance.

[kb2013]

Hi folks.. Does any one have information on what CO said about EB3 reaching Feb2010 by the end of FY? Thanks in advance.

< >

[rocketfast]

Hi folks.. Does any one have information on what CO said about EB3 reaching Feb2010 by the end of FY? Thanks in advance.

Last year in a AILA meeting, CO talked about his strategy for filing dates (currently at Feb 2010 for EB3-I). He mentioned that he keeps it at a date to which _he thinks_ the category will progress by the end of the year. He does get it wrong sometimes/often because of spillovers or lack thereof. He does go a little aggressive sometimes to build demand. But once the demand is built, he has a fair idea.

[deedee]

It will not. Don't read too much into statements and assumptions. Theoretically, since a filing date of Feb 2010 was accepted, the assumption was that the Final action date should reach that date by end of the year. Practically it does not... By the same theory it should have reached Apr 2010 last year... :)




Last year in a AILA meeting, CO talked about his strategy for filing dates (currently at Feb 2010 for EB3-I). He mentioned that he keeps it at a date to which _he thinks_ the category will progress by the end of the year. He does get it wrong sometimes/often because of spillovers or lack thereof. He does go a little aggressive sometimes to build demand. But once the demand is built, he has a fair idea.



kb2013, rocketfast - Thanks for your explanations!

[excalibur123]

Hello folks,

How times have changed ! Not so long back people here were talking about whether EB3 would reach mid-2010 or not. But EB3 consular processing came from left field and upended all predictions.

I have a curious observation to which you may know the answer - EB2 moved by only1 month and 12 days in whole of FY2019. (5 days of Mar 2009, Whole April, 8 days of May).

If you look at Pending Inventory, and use averaging it should use only 1160 visas. One can add following unknowns to this -
1. EB3 porters who did not or could not use their own category for filing, so used EB2.
2. Spouses of EB2 filers who married since the original filing and therefore filing for adjustment the first time.

But would these categories explain the gap of 2800 - 1160 = 1640 visas ??! What am I missing here?

Cheers.

[jimmys]

You're not missing anything here. The inventory data have never been accurate. The USCIS does not properly update the inventory data. And, there's a couple of hundred visas issued by consulates as well.

[excalibur123]

You're not missing anything here. The inventory data have never been accurate. The USCIS does not properly update the inventory data. And, there's a couple of hundred visas issued by consulates as well.

The inventory for EB2 2009 has been known for many years - the numbers have been "nearly" stable in all data publications.

There has to be an another explanation for missing numbers.

[mokrisin]

Yes, the dates moved only by 42 days.. but doesn't mean that was the only period of applications approved - approvals were from the beginning of time to May 8th.. There were pending applications prior to April and also EB3 porting keep happening all along... though the period was open for a long time, there were late EB3 porters even very recently...

It is a scary metrics.. 1600 visas added to the queue after July 2018... Where you getting the 1160 number? It is much more than that if you look at July inventory - I would say 2300 - July to Sep 2018 approvals.. some where around 2000??...




Hello folks,

How times have changed ! Not so long back people here were talking about whether EB3 would reach mid-2010 or not. But EB3 consular processing came from left field and upended all predictions.

I have a curious observation to which you may know the answer - EB2 moved by only1 month and 12 days in whole of FY2019. (5 days of Mar 2009, Whole April, 8 days of May).

If you look at Pending Inventory, and use averaging it should use only 1160 visas. One can add following unknowns to this -
1. EB3 porters who did not or could not use their own category for filing, so used EB2.
2. Spouses of EB2 filers who married since the original filing and therefore filing for adjustment the first time.

But would these categories explain the gap of 2800 - 1160 = 1640 visas ??! What am I missing here?

Cheers.

[jimmys]

The inventory for EB2 2009 has been known for many years - the numbers have been "nearly" stable in all data publications.

There has to be an another explanation for missing numbers.

Maybe I should have been more clearer in my previous post. The inventory data itself is a ballpark figure. Besides, USCIS doesn't properly update addition/deletion to the existing number. At any point of time, it's not a hard number to compare against.

If you check annual visa statistics from DOS in a month or so, EB2I would have received all the allocated visas.

[excalibur123]

I just averaged the pending inventory numbers for March, April and May for the days it moved in 2019 and that’s what resulted to 1160.

Yes I understand there would be filers prior to that date but they would be miniscule. After all wouldn’t they have filed before, and also if they are ones who left the country they would be counted in consular processing.

Counting the consular processing (200) and some additional dependents now added to original filers (say 200), it is still around 1200 numbers which could have gone to only eb3 porters. That seems too high.

So like jimmys said the inventory data is nowhere close to reality. Other explanation is not even 2800 visas are being given.

[mokrisin]

Agree and it is a scary scenario. Based on the 2018 inventory data I estimate about 70 applications per day in May 2009. But based on the scenario you have listed it could be 140-150 per day... If true, we can't expect more than 1 or 2 days of movement per bulletin for a long time.


I just averaged the pending inventory numbers for March, April and May for the days it moved in 2019 and that’s what resulted to 1160.

Yes I understand there would be filers prior to that date but they would be miniscule. After all wouldn’t they have filed before, and also if they are ones who left the country they would be counted in consular processing.

Counting the consular processing (200) and some additional dependents now added to original filers (say 200), it is still around 1200 numbers which could have gone to only eb3 porters. That seems too high.

So like jimmys said the inventory data is nowhere close to reality. Other explanation is not even 2800 visas are being given.

[srimurthy]

So as long as their CPA age is below 21 (and they are unmarried), they can still be included as dependents in you i-485 application. And to the best of my knowledge (and whats mentioend here : https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/child-status-protection-act), changing their status to F1 does not impact this.

But its worth checking with a lawyer.

Good to hear, so it looks like the I140 approval date to when we have a visa availability say around 10 years for all can be subtracted.
Meanwhile the kids should remain unmarried. The flip side is it may be faster if they get married to a citizen and get the GC there directly :-)

[iatiam]

I just averaged the pending inventory numbers for March, April and May for the days it moved in 2019 and that’s what resulted to 1160.

Yes I understand there would be filers prior to that date but they would be miniscule. After all wouldn’t they have filed before, and also if they are ones who left the country they would be counted in consular processing.

Counting the consular processing (200) and some additional dependents now added to original filers (say 200), it is still around 1200 numbers which could have gone to only eb3 porters. That seems too high.

So like jimmys said the inventory data is nowhere close to reality. Other explanation is not even 2800 visas are being given.

You cannot just average for two months and get the answer. I just looked at the July 2018 inventory and I am getting about 2800 cases this of course does not include CP cases and those cases who are have not filed for 485. But for new 485 cases to be eligibile for GC they have to have the interview done first.

Iatiam

[Dondraper]

You nailed the eb5 process but your lawyer was wrong. folks with Eb5 India have already for their GC. Had you applied in 2017 you would have had your GC by now but now you are looking at 8-10 years which is better considering there are like 80,000 indians in 2010 EB2/3 line. Oops the dates have not even moved from 2009. So your PD 2011 wont be current for another 2 decades at this rate.

[excalibur123]

You cannot just average for two months and get the answer. I just looked at the July 2018 inventory and I am getting about 2800 cases this of course does not include CP cases and those cases who are have not filed for 485. But for new 485 cases to be eligibile for GC they have to have the interview done first.

Iatiam

How exactly is it 2800? I based my calcs on Aug 2017 inv but using Jul 2018 it is even lower.

Mar 2009 -> 31 days : 527 pending => 6 days : 102 pending
Apr 2009 -> 649 pending
May 2009 -> 31 days : 1429 => 8 days : 369 pending

Total 1120

[mokrisin]

Is there any possibility that EB2I didn't get 2800 visas in 2019?

How are you getting 2800 cases from 2018 inventory?


You cannot just average for two months and get the answer. I just looked at the July 2018 inventory and I am getting about 2800 cases this of course does not include CP cases and those cases who are have not filed for 485. But for new 485 cases to be eligibile for GC they have to have the interview done first.

Iatiam

[iatiam]

How exactly is it 2800? I based my calcs on Aug 2017 inv but using Jul 2018 it is even lower.

Mar 2009 -> 31 days : 527 pending => 6 days : 102 pending
Apr 2009 -> 649 pending
May 2009 -> 31 days : 1429 => 8 days : 369 pending

Total 1120

Like I said, you cannot average. Take the entire inventory and add up till the date and you will get 2800

[iatiam]

Is there any possibility that EB2I didn't get 2800 visas in 2019?

How are you getting 2800 cases from 2018 inventory?

If you take July 2018 inventory and add the cases till April 2009, you will get 2260 cases. EB2I dates were 8th May, 2009 in September and that is the 5th working day of a 20 working day month. So that's 25% of May 2009 cases which is about 360 cases. This takes the total to 2620 cases. I don't know how many CP cases are, but if you add 10% more, you get about 2,900 cases. When the dates started moving last year, EB2I was still ahead of EB3I, so you cannot discount EB3I to EB2I upgrading cases. Add the unknown number of people who filed for the first time, the number increases further. You can take credit for the time between the inventory publication (July 2018) to visas available for the FY. This can vary from 500 to 700 depending on how you look at it.

Iatiam

[excalibur123]

Like I said, you cannot average. Take the entire inventory and add up till the date and you will get 2800

Not sure is that the right way to calculate.

The dates reached 15 Mar 2009 in Jul 2018 and stayed there for August too. It retrogressed in September.

These are folks who already had EAD and didn't need the interview. So they had full 2 months to get just the card. So why would not the inventory clear out till at least 15 Mar in FY2018 itself?

On the flip side there would have been EB3 porters from Dec 2008 - Mar 2009 who would have filed during those 2 months but may have been counted in FY2019 due to longer processing for them.

[iatiam]

Not sure is that the right way to calculate.

The dates reached 15 Mar 2009 in Jul 2018 and stayed there for August too. It retrogressed in September.

These are folks who already had EAD and didn't need the interview. So they had full 2 months to get just the card. So why would not the inventory clear out till at least 15 Mar in FY2018 itself?

On the flip side there would have been EB3 porters from Dec 2008 - Mar 2009 who would have filed during those 2 months but may have been counted in FY2019 due to longer processing for them.

I don't think there is a right way to calculate at all especially given the data is not trustworthy. However, it's fairly easy to say that EB2I got the congressionally mandated 2800 visas than put a lot of faith on calculation assumptions and governmental data.

Iatiam

[lville]

PD May 22, 2009 EB2-I.

Just got an email from my lawyer that my case (EAD/AP) will be filed today with USCIS. I've also submitted medicals with all my documents. Just wondering what happens next. Do I get any mail back from USCIS regarding my case ? Any other things that I need to be prepared for ?

Thank you

[GCGCGCGC]

With all do respect, can you start a new thread to discuss your situation.

This thread is for predicting the movement.

Thank you.

Admin: can you please move these posts to a new thread

Sorry

Admins, Please move this new thread.

[qesehmk]

Sorry

Admins, Please move this new thread.

I will do this today. But please be mindful of my time too and post in appropriate places.

As old folks have moved on we need some new moderators. May I ask a few moderators who can moderate new content or move things to their appropriate place. Please send me a private message.

[jimmys]

PD May 22, 2009 EB2-I.

Just got an email from my lawyer that my case (EAD/AP) will be filed today with USCIS. I've also submitted medicals with all my documents. Just wondering what happens next. Do I get any mail back from USCIS regarding my case ? Any other things that I need to be prepared for ?

Thank you

In the next 1-2 months, you will get a notice for fingerprints.
In the next 3-12 months, you will get your EAD, AP, and interview scheduled in no particular order (Hopefully your background check doesn't take long).

[GCGCGCGC]

I will do this today. But please be mindful of my time too and post in appropriate places.

As old folks have moved on we need some new moderators. May I ask a few moderators who can moderate new content or move things to their appropriate place. Please send me a private message.

Thank you Q

[lville]

In the next 1-2 months, you will get a notice for fingerprints.
In the next 3-12 months, you will get your EAD, AP, and interview scheduled in no particular order (Hopefully your background check doesn't take long).

Lol. I hope so. I have an arrest record but I was found not-guilty and my case was dismissed and expunged. So hopefully it doesn't take long to get my background cleared. I made sure to send court papers with my I-485 application that was filed this week to uscis.

[drop2ocean]

EB3I PD: June 15th 2010. What are my chances of being able to file for EAD in 2020 ? ( considering a job move so asking)

[rocketfast]

EB3I PD: June 15th 2010. What are my chances of being able to file for EAD in 2020 ? ( considering a job move so asking)

There is a likelihood of ~7000 unused FB green cards coming to EB3ROW this year (we will have a better idea in 10 days). But we do not know what will happen to that extr a 7000 GCs. Will it all be gobbled up by EB3ROW? Or will it all come to EB3-I? If the latter, there is a small likelihood of EB3-I filing dates reaching June 2010.

[mokrisin]

I am trying to understand. Is this the spill over from 2019 applied in 2020? When will this applied? You have mentioned better idea in 10 days, based on what?

I am asking to see if there would any little movement on EB2I in the near future due to the spillover.

[mokrisin]

any comments on the questions below?


Just trying to understand when my PD -18-May-2009 EB2I would be current. Was there any spill over given to EB2I in September? Any insight on the pending inventory estimates as of Oct 1st 2019?

[Dondraper]

There is a likelihood of ~7000 unused FB green cards coming to EB3ROW this year (we will have a better idea in 10 days). But we do not know what will happen to that extr a 7000 GCs. Will it all be gobbled up by EB3ROW? Or will it all come to EB3-I? If the latter, there is a small likelihood of EB3-I filing dates reaching June 2010.

June 2010. Lol. that is not even possible. They are soo many from 2009

[drop2ocean]

I am talking about filing dates ( which are already in Feb 2010).

Q, Spec,

Appreciate if you can comment on the EB3I filing dates movement in the next year ?

[vbollu]

June 2010. Lol. that is not even possible. They are soo many from 2009

If you see July 18 I-485 inventory, from may only 5k-6k people are left in the inventory, by end of FY 2020, all the 2009 EB2 will be cleared. I assume many people might have been downgraded to Eb3, it definitely clear the 2009 backlog in a year or two.

[akshaya8]

Is there a chance this year EB2/3 India getting more numbers based on 7% combined quota of FB and EB together?

As all EB India categories are retrogressed so it is expected to use exactly 7% in EB and usage in FB is slightly below 7%.
In FY 2018 FB India consumed 14,935 vs quota of 15,820 so there is under usage of 800 in FB category. Prior years EB1/Eb5 consumed more than 7% due to horizontal spillover so EB2/3 didn't get additional numbers and but now Eb1/Eb5 also retrogressed there is possibility to get additional numbers for Eb2/3. is this assumption correct?

Also if there is additional 7000 spillover from FB to EB for FY20 that will get additional 490 ( 7% 0f 7000).

I know these are small numbers 800+500 = 1300 but this number is half of Eb2 Quota.
Also Spillover of 7000 from FB to EB may cause some horizontal spillover for Eb2/3. Experts please provide your opinion on this !

[mokrisin]

I thought the spill overs don't have the 7% limit but allotted to the most regressed country in each category. I am ignorant in this area.. ignore if i am dreaming about that.


Is there a chance this year EB2/3 India getting more numbers based on 7% combined quota of FB and EB together?

As all EB India categories are retrogressed so it is expected to use exactly 7% in EB and usage in FB is slightly below 7%.
In FY 2018 FB India consumed 14,935 vs quota of 15,820 so there is under usage of 800 in FB category. Prior years EB1/Eb5 consumed more than 7% due to horizontal spillover so EB2/3 didn't get additional numbers and but now Eb1/Eb5 also retrogressed there is possibility to get additional numbers for Eb2/3. is this assumption correct?

Also if there is additional 7000 spillover from FB to EB for FY20 that will get additional 490 ( 7% 0f 7000).

I know these are small numbers 800+500 = 1300 but this number is half of Eb2 Quota.
Also Spillover of 7000 from FB to EB may cause some horizontal spillover for Eb2/3. Experts please provide your opinion on this !

[iatiam]

I thought the spill overs don't have the 7% limit but allotted to the most regressed country in each category. I am ignorant in this area.. ignore if i am dreaming about that.

Limits do apply. Spec has a good post on this. Recommend reading it

Iatiam

[qesehmk]

I thought the spill overs don't have the 7% limit but allotted to the most regressed country in each category. I am ignorant in this area.. ignore if i am dreaming about that.
Spill over reached at category level is applied to the most regressed country. But DoS has taken the definition of 7% limit as quota and have been applying that across EB+FB combined as well as giving away spillover visas randomly to various countries and categories under the pretext that they have been underutilized their limit in other categories.

This kind of throws EB2/3 India's dreams off once a while. Case in point you can see S Korea and Philippines have significantly over utilized their limits without being nearly as retrogressed as India in EB2/3. Philippines in particular would be nowhere near they are unless DoS/USCIS stole EB3I visas and gave it to them because EB3 Philippines underutilized in FB or something like that.

[Dondraper]

Spill over reached at category level is applied to the most regressed country. But DoS has taken the definition of 7% limit as quota and have been applying that across EB+FB combined as well as giving away spillover visas randomly to various countries and categories under the pretext that they have been underutilized their limit in other categories.

This kind of throws EB2/3 India's dreams off once a while. Case in point you can see S Korea and Philippines have significantly over utilized their limits without being nearly as retrogressed as India in EB2/3. Philippines in particular would be nowhere near they are unless DoS/USCIS stole EB3I visas and gave it to them because EB3 Philippines underutilized in FB or something like that.
Is this a new pattern that we are seeing in the current administration to apply rules in a random fashion ?

[skpanda]

Any rumors why Visa Bulletin is still not out?

[EB32010]

Nov bulletin released. No change for any category except EB2 which moved one day.

[lville]

Even with new fiscal year and new set of numbers, why is it moving just by 1 day. Im just glad they are accepting Filing dates and for the first time in life I was able to apply for EAD/AP. My PD is EB2-I May, 22 2009 and I’m only 10 days away. God when is it going past May 23 2009 ?

[qesehmk]

Unfortunately the INA specifies the upper limit. It does not say they must allocate the visas. So the administration can take its sweet time to "VET" every single applicant.
Even with new fiscal year and new set of numbers, why is it moving just by 1 day. Im just glad they are accepting Filing dates and for the first time in life I was able to apply for EAD/AP. My PD is EB2-I May, 22 2009 and I’m only 10 days away. God when is it going past May 23 2009 ?