EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[smuggymba]

Experts - need your advice.

My priority date is June 2009. I have an approved EB3 140 from 2011 and ported that date to EB2 140 approved in 2013 with the same company. I filed 485 in 2015 based on EB2 filing dates. I am no longer with that company.

Now my date is current under EB3 but not under EB2. Can I request USCIS to use my EB3 140 for my 485. If yes what is the procedure and is there any risk in doing so?

You should be on a phone call with a Lawyer right now.

[cursedguy]

Congrats on your GC !! Did you receive any RFE this year?

I am on April 28, 2009 and have EAD and I got one very good job offer that pays 75% more than what I am getting right now. I have an approved 485J from last year. But I am wondering if I receive one more RFE with Sup J my new employer may not provide. Confused !!


waiting is probably better, not sure how they will know that you changed jobs. But I replied my i485J last year. nothing this year. But NSC is processing fast after being current.

Here are my dates

5/1 - current
5/2 - mobile notification
5/5-approval notice
5/8- GC in mailbox

[paramjit74]

You should be on a phone call with a Lawyer right now.

One lawyer I talked to just now actually advised me not to do it as "they are 2 different jobs"

[techastro]

waiting is probably better, not sure how they will know that you changed jobs. But I replied my i485J last year. nothing this year. But NSC is processing fast after being current.

Here are my dates

5/1 - current
5/2 - mobile notification
5/5-approval notice
5/8- GC in mailbox

Thanks.Looking at your timelines you are not “cursedguy”, you are “blessedguy”.

Happy for your GC and enjoy the green life. Our waiting still continues...

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Comments on this one?

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2696-Bills-Rules-amp-Politics/page9

[bluelabel]

Does EB1C require one in last 3 years in managerial role outside US before filing I-140 or I-485? If it's I-485 then future for EB1C looks bleak, it's already retrogressed to 2015 and in future the cut off date could be at least 3 years away from being current if the current demand sustains.

[newsletter1978]

I am August 2009 and I am now not even sure for the entire FY 2020 looking the way the visa bulletin is progressing.Hate to say this but you might be lucky in FY 2021

Thank you for your comments. nobody seems to have looked at my question properly, my question was on good lawyers for i485. Regarding the date it could be next FY or the next after, i understand. or the filing date could become current next year. If anyone can suggest lawyers for i485, i would appreciate.

[harapatta]

Very minimal movement both in EB2 & EB3 for May 2019.

EB2 moved by 4 days ( 12 april 2009 to 16 april 2009)
Eb3 moved by 8 days ( 22 june 2009 to 01 july 2009)

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-may-2019.html

[4WatItsWorth]

Very minimal movement both in EB2 & EB3 for May 2019.

EB2 moved by 4 days ( 12 april 2009 to 16 april 2009)
Eb3 moved by 8 days ( 22 june 2009 to 01 july 2009)

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-may-2019.html
Good Morning! Would you like any cream or sugar with your coffee? :)

[16v100bhp]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2019/05/16/trump-immigration-plan-may-throw-4-million-people-off-immigrant-waiting-lists/#15bcd1f96943 (http://https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2019/05/16/trump-immigration-plan-may-throw-4-million-people-off-immigrant-waiting-lists/#15bcd1f96943)

Trump Immigration Plan May Throw 4 Million People Off Immigrant Waiting Lists
“Immigrants in the green card backlog would lose their place in line and would need to apply under the new point-based system,” according to an analysis from Berry Appleman & Leiden. “The White House has said people who are currently waiting for green cards will receive additional points, but no specifics have been released.” This was confirmed by Donald Trump’s May 16, 2019, speech, in which he stated that all current family and employment-based preference categories would be eliminated and replaced by new “Build America” visas awarded by points.

[gs1968]

CO has mentioned that all countries in family 2a categories will be current from July to September 2019. This is likely to be due to low demand ad consumption of less visasthan that are available for the current FY. May have implications for spillover

[idliman]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2019/05/16/trump-immigration-plan-may-throw-4-million-people-off-immigrant-waiting-lists/#15bcd1f96943 (http://https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2019/05/16/trump-immigration-plan-may-throw-4-million-people-off-immigrant-waiting-lists/#15bcd1f96943)

Trump Immigration Plan May Throw 4 Million People Off Immigrant Waiting Lists
“Immigrants in the green card backlog would lose their place in line and would need to apply under the new point-based system,” according to an analysis from Berry Appleman & Leiden. “The White House has said people who are currently waiting for green cards will receive additional points, but no specifics have been released.” This was confirmed by Donald Trump’s May 16, 2019, speech, in which he stated that all current family and employment-based preference categories would be eliminated and replaced by new “Build America” visas awarded by points.
My 2c. The same firm (BAL) told privately to clients that there is no chance of this new immigration law passing as the house is controlled by the democrats.

[AceMan]

Good point Aceman. Hope Philippines get Current soon and stop consuming Rest of the World Spill Over. More likely Next FY they will consume very very less SO. Just hoping.

One problem I see with the advancement with Philippines is the June 2019 filers (June 18 - 1st November 18) will have no chance to utilize their visa numbers in FY 19 due to the interview mandate. In fact this might result in some spillover to EB3 I which can push the final dates to 1st October 2009.

[redsox2009]

April Consular Processing of the AOS.

Here is the 2019 April DOS data.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
59
19
00
00
17
00
104
199


EB2
12
06
02
20
64
04
168
276



EB3
025
179
054
336
027
013
518
1152


EB4
03
07
14
09
07
00
202
242


EB5
533
104
020
001
187
116
437
1398


Total
632
315
090
366
302
133
1429
3267




Compared to the previous month, EB5 went up by 1167, China, South Korea and VET visas went up. India also went up.

Overall Eb5 utilization is 4K

On the other hand Family-based is slowing down, compared to the previous year to the same period, it is 16k less.

[Dukeldh]

My priority date is jan 2011 in EB3 India. When can I expect to apply for EAD.

[Dukeldh]

My priority date is Jan, 2011 eb3-I. When can I expect applying for EAD. Thanks

[redsox2009]

My priority date is Jan, 2011 eb3-I. When can I expect applying for EAD. Thanks

Based on current trends, you will be lucky if you get a chance in a decade.

[iatiam]

April Consular Processing of the AOS.

Here is the 2019 April DOS data.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
59
19
00
00
17
00
104
199


EB2
12
06
02
20
64
04
168
276



EB3
025
179
054
336
027
013
518
1152


EB4
03
07
14
09
07
00
202
242


EB5
533
104
020
001
187
116
437
1398


Total
632
315
090
366
302
133
1429
3267




Compared to the previous month, EB5 went up by 1167, China, South Korea and VET visas went up. India also went up.

Overall Eb5 utilization is 4K

On the other hand Family-based is slowing down, compared to the previous year to the same period, it is 16k less.

The slowing down of family based is indeed good news. Looks like the administration policies to slow down family based immigration is indeed working. Some spillover from FB, even if it is a few thousands visas will definitely help EB2I and EB3I

[vsivarama]

My priority date is Jan, 2011 eb3-I. When can I expect applying for EAD. Thanks

I would expect the end of next year at the latest when you will be able to apply for EAD. When you will get your GC however is a different matter.

[idliman]

My priority date is Jan, 2011 eb3-I. When can I expect applying for EAD. Thanks Currently the DF for EB3I is 01APR10. Typically USCIS allows "DF" dates in the first quarter or month (October to Dec). It all depends on spillover and "FA" date movement for EB3I. You might need to wait till end of this fiscal year to guess the "DF" movement. It might be 2-3 years down the road for you.

[greenzone]

My friend's EB2 priority date is in March 2010. He is an FTE and didnt file 485 when the dates were current in 2012. He filed a new i140 for EB3 and 485 in Dec 2018. His 140 is approved and got EAD for one year. He got an interview scheduled notification last week. Yet to receive the actual notice with date. Is this a positive sign that FAD dates might move for EB3I in last quarter? Of course dates may get retrogressed in the first quarter of next fiscal year .

[waitingsoldier]

My friend's EB2 priority date is in March 2010. He is an FTE and didnt file 485 when the dates were current in 2012. He filed a new i140 for EB3 and 485 in Dec 2018. His 140 is approved and got EAD for one year. He got an interview scheduled notification last week. Yet to receive the actual notice with date. Is this a positive sign that FAD dates might move for EB3I in last quarter? Of course dates may get retrogressed in the first quarter of next fiscal year .

That is indeed great news about your friend, which field office (city/state) is his interview? USCIS can schedule an interview without the FAD being current in the near future, it can depend on the field office workload and their current (ever changing) policies :).

[greenzone]

That is indeed great news about your friend, which field office (city/state) is his interview? USCIS can schedule an interview without the FAD being current in the near future, it can depend on the field office workload and their current (ever changing) policies :).

He lives in New Jersey

[dora89]

Charlie Oppenheim of the U.S. Department of State has announced that the EB-3 category for Filipino nurses and other professionals will be become current in July 2019 and will stay current all summer long.

[swordfish380]

Has anyone calculated how many approvals eb2i received this year per trackitt Data?

This will give us a good idea of how many GCs are left for this year.

[swordfish380]

Lately this blog has been quite. Experts are also missing from the scene. The purpose of this thread was to predict eb2 and eb3 movement instead everything's other than that is being discussed.

I like to ask Q and spec , with out pending inventory report can the movement be predicted?

[mjaggu]

My friend's EB2 priority date is in March 2010. He is an FTE and didnt file 485 when the dates were current in 2012. He filed a new i140 for EB3 and 485 in Dec 2018. His 140 is approved and got EAD for one year. He got an interview scheduled notification last week. Yet to receive the actual notice with date. Is this a positive sign that FAD dates might move for EB3I in last quarter? Of course dates may get retrogressed in the first quarter of next fiscal year .

Thats good to know. is it possible for you to share at which center your friend had filed the AOS? I am actually on the same boat as far as the PD and AOS filing with I140. TIA

[maverickwild]

Thats good to know. is it possible for you to share at which center your friend had filed the AOS? I am actually on the same boat as far as the PD and AOS filing with I140. TIA

In same boat myself , PD is March 2010 , never filed EAD , downgraded in Jan 2019(concurrent filing, NSC).
Got 140 approved in EB3, waiting for EAD approval.
Maybe this case is an exception rather than a norm ( will be happy to be proved wrong :))

[idliman]

In same boat myself , PD is March 2010 , never filed EAD , downgraded in Jan 2019(concurrent filing, NSC).
Got 140 approved in EB3, waiting for EAD approval.
Maybe this case is an exception rather than a norm ( will be happy to be proved wrong :)) Wow. That's 3 downgrades in one page of this thread. Is this an indication of downgrade floodgates that are about to open?

[smuggymba]

Wow. That's 3 downgrades in one page of this thread. Is this an indication of downgrade floodgates that are about to open?

I'm in EB2 March 30th, 2010 PD and using EAD for my employment for the last 5 yrs. I dont have an option to downgrade but I'm very happy people getting out of EB2 queue LOL. I hope more people leave and get GC faster :)

[swordfish380]

I am following this blog since 2012. Spec, q and Matt2012 are the only names I recognize.

Spec and you are geniuses. In your calculation sheet With out pending inventory can EB2india and eb3india movement predicted?

[qesehmk]

swordfish start scanning this thread from the beginning and you will come across many more ... !


I am following this blog since 2012. Spec, q and Matt2012 are the only names I recognize.

Spec and you are geniuses. In your calculation sheet With out pending inventory can EB2india and eb3india movement predicted?

[rocketfast]

I am following this blog since 2012. Spec, q and Matt2012 are the only names I recognize.

Spec and you are geniuses. In your calculation sheet With out pending inventory can EB2india and eb3india movement predicted?

Not trying to speak for others, but Spec and Q have answered your question a few times over the last couple of years. You can look at their posts in this very thread. There is no data to do micro-analysis and do short term predictions. Q still does macro-analysis via his venture. And Spec still posts data when he finds it. It is upto us to put in if else conditions to make the best out of that data.

[GCdreamz]

I'm in EB2 March 30th, 2010 PD and using EAD for my employment for the last 5 yrs. I dont have an option to downgrade but I'm very happy people getting out of EB2 queue LOL. I hope more people leave and get GC faster :)

Once you start using EAD it's very tough to downgrade/upgrade right? Please confirm. I believe I heard from Attorney that it's not advisable. Clarification will help me in estimating Dates movement.

Experts please clarify

[vyruss]

I have PD in third week of May 2009. Just received notice that my supplement J was approved. I am reading this as, they touched my application. :)

Any correlation between this and 485 approval? or is this the another case of getting medical RFE and building expectations on priority date movements?

[tenyearsgone]

Once you start using EAD it's very tough to downgrade/upgrade right? Please confirm. I believe I heard from Attorney that it's not advisable. Clarification will help me in estimating Dates movement.

Experts please clarify

If you have used EAD to change your job/employer, then it is harder to upgrade/downgrade as a new PERM/I-140 is needed from your current employer. If your employer supports it, then I don't think it's a problem per se .. more of a long drawn out process (12 - 18 months). But if your GC is more than 2 years away based on current processing times, then it may be worth the effort.

FWIW, my employer was supportive, but the attorney believes EB2I will move faster (with no data to support that view :confused:) and nixed a new PERM process.

Do consult with the attorney and ask why it is not advisable.

[aquatican]

I have PD in third week of May 2009. Just received notice that my supplement J was approved. I am reading this as, they touched my application. :)

Any correlation between this and 485 approval? or is this the another case of getting medical RFE and building expectations on priority date movements?

While it is a positive development It essentially means your supplement J has satisfied the job portability test and the case is clear to proceed. I had a Supplement J filed in Oct 18 as a response to an RFE which also included medical. I noticed that my I 485 had a date update when that happened. After that no news. My PD is Jun 19 2009. Hope data moves. or ill have to adopt the name 'elevenyearsgone' . lol

[tenyearsgone]

ill have to adopt the name 'elevenyearsgone' . lol

;) .. ten years were gone a long time back. Never thought I would hit a new "tenyearsgone" milestone with PD 2009.

[IamGSN]

Came across this : https://immfinews.com/june-visa-bulletin-check-in-with-charlie-oppenheim/

Is it authentic? I haven't seen this one Murthy or AILA sites.

[NJMavarick]

Came across this : https://immfinews.com/june-visa-bulletin-check-in-with-charlie-oppenheim/

Is it authentic? I haven't seen this one Murthy or AILA sites.

I have not seen this update anywhere else but if its true then it is indeed very depressing. I am surprised to read that EB3I dates are expected to hold until September. Wow! What about spill overs? Do we really have so many downgrades / demand? We are in a black hole...

[NJMavarick]

Came across this : https://immfinews.com/june-visa-bulletin-check-in-with-charlie-oppenheim/

Is it authentic? I haven't seen this one Murthy or AILA sites.

EB-1 India: It is not going to advance for this Fiscal Year
EB-3 India: July 1, 2009 Final Action date should hold for another month in the July Visa Bulletin.
EB-2 India: It is expected to continue to advance slowly, in days or up to a week at a time.

[iatiam]

EB-1 India: It is not going to advance for this Fiscal Year
EB-3 India: July 1, 2009 Final Action date should hold for another month in the July Visa Bulletin.
EB-2 India: It is expected to continue to advance slowly, in days or up to a week at a time.

The silver lining is that EB2ROW will be current for the rest of the FY and may give some SO. Also it looks like the impact of downgrading will not be visible this FY. Also wondering what impact would be of EB3P becoming current.

Iatiam

[cloudgc]

Hi Mavarick - Can you please share the link for original post on any news site?

[iatiam]

The silver lining is that EB2ROW will be current for the rest of the FY and may give some SO. Also it looks like the impact of downgrading will not be visible this FY. Also wondering what impact would be of EB3P becoming current.

Iatiam

Wondering what would be the impact of the following next FY,

1. EB3 Philippines becoming current
2. Potential FB spillover

Can someone comment? @aceman

Iatiam

[Spectator]

For those interested, a more comprehensive report of the "Check in with Charlie" has been posted on the Shusterman website.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

[EB22010Dec]

For those interested, a more comprehensive report of the "Check in with Charlie" has been posted on the Shusterman website.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

EB2 I is going to move again .. I am all confused !!!!

[iatiam]

EB2 I is going to move again .. I am all confused !!!!

This sounds like weather prediction in India. It may or may not rain. In all fairness, if EB2ROW is current, why wouldn't it yield spillover?

Iatiam

[EB22010Dec]

This sounds like weather prediction in India. It may or may not rain. In all fairness, if EB2ROW is current, why wouldn't it yield spillover?

Iatiam


Also we all know that RAPID is 2 weeks movement as opposed to 1 week :( ....

[rocketfast]

Also we all know that RAPID is 2 weeks movement as opposed to 1 week :( ....

By past experiences, Charlie is known to provide hopes to EB-I to keep them positive few months at a time. Just a little bit of news is good enough for us to remain optimistic. I think he cares for us. /sarcasm.

[suninphx]

For those interested, a more comprehensive report of the "Check in with Charlie" has been posted on the Shusterman website.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

Thanks Spec!

When would we know if there is a chance of spillover from FB (if at all :) ) to EB?

[Spectator]

I think it's fair to say that CO is not getting any more information out of USCIS than we are - and is equally frustrated.

His only advantage is that he does know how many visas have been used to date, but he only knows that as they are approved by USCIS and doesn't have any insight into future demand or any USCIS processing priorities.

For EB, that's a big problem, since USCIS process 90% of cases. I'm not surprised the message is rather confusing.

EB1 seems to be the most clear, to the point where Worldwide applicants have started to downgrade to EB2, which is still current.

FB is interesting. CO has good visibility of the numbers in the queue and all categories have been retrogressed to date. It seems applicants there are reevaluating whether they want to emigrate to the USA at all, possibly based on the negative atmosphere towards FB immigrants at the moment.

Because most FB categories are highly retrogressed and are consular processed, CO does have the ability to move both the FD and FAD forward by large amounts to generate demand and process them in time. Having said that, some under-utilization in FB is starting to look possible, which would help EB in FY2020.

[bikenlalan]

CO mentions this, "if demand in EB-2 China remains steady, it may be possible to shift some of those numbers to EB-3 China."
As per my understanding, the numbers from EB-2 if available, go to the heavily retrogressed country in that category. So it should go to EB2-I? How can he say that numbers can be made available to EB3-C?

Please correct my understanding.

[iatiam]

I think it's fair to say that CO is not getting any more information out of USCIS than we are - and is equally frustrated.

His only advantage is that he does know how many visas have been used to date, but he only knows that as they are approved by USCIS and doesn't have any insight into future demand or any USCIS processing priorities.

For EB, that's a big problem, since USCIS process 90% of cases. I'm not surprised the message is rather confusing.

EB1 seems to be the most clear, to the point where Worldwide applicants have started to downgrade to EB2, which is still current.

FB is interesting. CO has good visibility of the numbers in the queue and all categories have been retrogressed to date. It seems applicants there are reevaluating whether they want to emigrate to the USA at all, possibly based on the negative atmosphere towards FB immigrants at the moment.

Because most FB categories are highly retrogressed and are consular processed, CO does have the ability to move both the FD and FAD forward by large amounts to generate demand and process them in time. Having said that, some under-utilization in FB is starting to look possible, which would help EB in FY2020.

Spec, thanks. Just so I am clear, do you expect this underutilization to happen this FY and so the numbers will be available next FY (say Q1 FY2020). My understanding is that these have to be used next FY

Iatiam

[LASHAB]

"EB-2 India will continue to advance very slowly, in daily movements, or up to one week at the most. Charlie noted that there are 14,000 Indians with pending adjustment of status applications filed in 2012 in the queue for numbers in this category. Lower Worldwide EB-2 demand may allow for the advancement of this date during the summer. This situation is being closely monitored."
Does this mean that there will be some advancement in EB2I the last qtr of FY 19? If it happens it will also reduce the volume of downgrade of people with PD in 09.

[gs1968]

I think it's fair to say that CO is not getting any more information out of USCIS than we are - and is equally frustrated.

His only advantage is that he does know how many visas have been used to date, but he only knows that as they are approved by USCIS and doesn't have any insight into future demand or any USCIS processing priorities.

For EB, that's a big problem, since USCIS process 90% of cases. I'm not surprised the message is rather confusing.

EB1 seems to be the most clear, to the point where Worldwide applicants have started to downgrade to EB2, which is still current.

FB is interesting. CO has good visibility of the numbers in the queue and all categories have been retrogressed to date. It seems applicants there are reevaluating whether they want to emigrate to the USA at all, possibly based on the negative atmosphere towards FB immigrants at the moment.

Because most FB categories are highly retrogressed and are consular processed, CO does have the ability to move both the FD and FAD forward by large amounts to generate demand and process them in time. Having said that, some under-utilization in FB is starting to look possible, which would help EB in FY2020.

I read a tweet from Cyrus Mehta that starting with the next bulletin the F2 category will be current across the board to increase utilization of available visas

[iatiam]

I read a tweet from Cyrus Mehta that starting with the next bulletin the F2 category will be current across the board to increase utilization of available visas

Interesting.

How long does it take to schedule and attend an interview for FB cases? Is three months enough time?

Iatiam

[gs1968]

I think that would depend on the consulates involved and I assume that it might be easier in some of the smaller countries. My personal experience for my mother last year when I applied through the NVC they arranged the appointment themselves at Mumbai and was about 6 weeks from approval. However as she was still staying with us here she could not attend the appointment in Mumbai and the rescheduling was a pain. The system was not user friendly online.

[saagar_is_cool]

My PD is Apr 17 2009 and we are current as of June 1, but I don’t see any updates like some members have reported. I know it is too much to expect too soon but my question is, what can I do from my side to get through the finish line. Any and all ideas are appreciated.

[march1612]

I am little confused with 14k count. Total movement in 2012 was around 2.5 years (2008,2009 and Jan-May 2010).

Is CO saying he has 14K applications from Jan 2009 to May 2010? If this is true, then with recent EB2-I movement (until April 2009) the count should have been reduced from 14k to somewhere around 10K?

[vyruss]

I am little confused with 14k count. Total movement in 2012 was around 2.5 years (2008,2009 and Jan-May 2010).

Is CO saying he has 14K applications from Jan 2009 to May 2010? If this is true, then with recent EB2-I movement (until April 2009) the count should have been reduced from 14k to somewhere around 10K?

Here is the monthly pending inventory from April 2009 to May 2010 (this is straight from the July 2018 pending inventory). It adds up to 14000.

Apr-09 649
May-09 1429
Jun-09 1411
Jul-09 968
Aug-09 801
Sep-09 1006
Oct-09 1127
Nov-09 1000
Dec-09 1148
Jan-10 1086
Feb-10 1074
Mar-10 1273
Apr-10 1244
Total 14216

[vyruss]

"My PD is Apr 17 2009 and we are current as of June 1, but I don’t see any updates like some members have reported. I know it is too much to expect too soon but my question is, what can I do from my side to get through the finish line. Any and all ideas are appreciated.'




If your Supplement J and I-693 are good, not much you can do the first week you are current. Sit tight. Pray and wait for updates. Maybe in a few weeks, you can raise SR if you don't see any action.

[vyruss]

EB1 seems to be the most clear, to the point where Worldwide applicants have started to downgrade to EB2, which is still current.

.

Spec, downgrade from Eb1 to Eb2 would require PERM and everything that goes with EB2 application. Not sure what percentage, if any, would take that route.

[karukon]

"My PD is Apr 17 2009 and we are current as of June 1, but I don’t see any updates like some members have reported. I know it is too much to expect too soon but my question is, what can I do from my side to get through the finish line. Any and all ideas are appreciated.'




If your Supplement J and I-693 are good, not much you can do the first week you are current. Sit tight. Pray and wait for updates. Maybe in a few weeks, you can raise SR if you don't see any action.

For Supp- J & I-693 had he received RFE yet ?

[Spectator]

Spec, downgrade from Eb1 to Eb2 would require PERM and everything that goes with EB2 application. Not sure what percentage, if any, would take that route.

EB2-NIW does not need a PERM and would be a viable route for many in both EB1A and EB1B. EB1A/B have been about 40%-50% of total EB1 historically. Whether that is different for ROW is impossible to say.

Although there is no PP for NIW, it's still potentially a far more attractive alternative to waiting, what is now, an indeterminate time in EB1.

That's where I would expect the downgrades to come from, rather than EB1C downgrading to EB2.

For ROW applicants, who might have previously pursued the EB1A/B route, it's practically a no-brainer to apply under EB2/EB2-NIW at this time. The time for a PERM (if required) is not significantly longer than the time required to pull all the information together and craft a good EB1A/B petition. Under EB2, they're practically guaranteed to be able to file an I-485 at the earliest opportunity, something that can no longer be said of EB1.

[jimmys]

CO mentions this, "if demand in EB-2 China remains steady, it may be possible to shift some of those numbers to EB-3 China."
As per my understanding, the numbers from EB-2 if available, go to the heavily retrogressed country in that category. So it should go to EB2-I? How can he say that numbers can be made available to EB3-C?

Please correct my understanding.

I think China is eligible get 2803 visas each in EB1, EB2, and EB3 category. If you add all those numbers, 2803 * 3 = 8409.

For example, If EB1-C uses 2803 and EB2-C uses only 2000 numbers, they can give, 8409 - (2803+2000) = 3606, visas to EB3-C.

[saagar_is_cool]

"My PD is Apr 17 2009 and we are current as of June 1, but I don’t see any updates like some members have reported. I know it is too much to expect too soon but my question is, what can I do from my side to get through the finish line. Any and all ideas are appreciated.'

If your Supplement J and I-693 are good, not much you can do the first week you are current. Sit tight. Pray and wait for updates. Maybe in a few weeks, you can raise SR if you don't see any action.

Yes, RFE for these was received last year around June 2018 and response was filed and shows received. When you say few weeks, is it two weeks or more ?

[bluelabel]

I think China is eligible get 2803 visas each in EB1, EB2, and EB3 category. If you add all those numbers, 2803 * 3 = 8409.

For example, If EB1-C uses 2803 and EB2-C uses only 2000 numbers, they can give, 8409 - (2803+2000) = 3606, visas to EB3-C.

China is eligible to receive 7% of total visas in Employment and Family based together. It's heavily retrogressed in all family categories so there is no under utilization here.

In employment based categories, EB1 and EB2 are retrogressed heavily so there's no under utilization here as well, how come EB3 china receives more than 2803 visas?

[vyruss]

EB2-NIW does not need a PERM and would be a viable route for many in both EB1A and EB1B. EB1A/B have been about 40%-50% of total EB1 historically. Whether that is different for ROW is impossible to say.

Although there is no PP for NIW, it's still potentially a far more attractive alternative to waiting, what is now, an indeterminate time in EB1.

That's where I would expect the downgrades to come from, rather than EB1C downgrading to EB2.

For ROW applicants, who might have previously pursued the EB1A/B route, it's practically a no-brainer to apply under EB2/EB2-NIW at this time. The time for a PERM (if required) is not significantly longer than the time required to pull all the information together and craft a good EB1A/B petition. Under EB2, they're practically guaranteed to be able to file an I-485 at the earliest opportunity, something that can no longer be said of EB1.

Thanks for the clarity. (as always)

[jimmys]

China is eligible to receive 7% of total visas in Employment and Family based together. It's heavily retrogressed in all family categories so there is no under utilization here.

In employment based categories, EB1 and EB2 are retrogressed heavily so there's no under utilization here as well, how come EB3 china receives more than 2803 visas?


Good question. I don't know that exact number of Chinese visas issued in each category. That's why I used the word "if" in my post.

[swordfish380]

Hello Spec

As per this law firm there was no check in this month with Charles

http://swlgpc.com/eng/may-2019-visa-bulletin/

SW Law Group, PC › eng › may-2019-v...
The Department of State Issues May 2019 Visa Bulletin - SW Law Group, PC
May 24, 2019 · There is no May 2019 analysis or predictions from Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of ..

[swordfish380]

As per this law firm last check in was in April not in May?
https://www.sivisalaw.com/immigration-news/visa-bulletin/2019/06/04/june-check-in-with-doss-charlie-oppenheim/


Check-in with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim
June 4th, 2019

Posted By
Heather Sivaraman
Share
Check-in with DOS's Charl…
AILA's Department of State (DOS) Liaison Committee checks in each month with Charlie Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at DOS for updates about Visa Bulletin progress. Oppenheim also provides analysis of current trends and predicts future visa availability. His predictions of Final Action Date movement are based on his analysis of movement in each category over recent months and cases that are currently pending at the USCIS National Benefits Center. AILA posted about the most recent check in on April 18, 2019. First, he answered some member questions. Then, he discussed his predictions for movement in family-based and employment-based preference categories.

Family-Based Preference Categories
Due to low demand over the past few months in family-based preference categories, Final Action Dates have generally advanced rapidly. If demand were to increase, however, it would lead to a lack of movement or potentially retrogression. In contrast with this steady forward movement in most categories, FB Mexico categories have not moved much due to high demand. Oppenheim does not expect movement for the rest of FY2019, and forsees some retrogression in some FB Mexico categories.

USCIS will provide more detailed projections for family-based preference categories in a few weeks.

Employment-Based Preference Categories
Because of a shift in policy that required EB adjustment of status (AOS) applicants to interview at USCIS District Field Offices which led to fears of longer processing times, there has been a significant increase in consular processing. Oppenheim predicts, however, that consular processing will decline soon as applicants become more comfortable with the new AOS interview process. As a result of these lower rates of USCIS office use for filing AOS applications, Oppenheim was concerned that the annual limit would not be reached. However, this was not the case.

Demand for EB-1 Worldwide remains consistent, and it is unlikely that it will return to 'current' for the remainder of FY2019. Oppenheim also predicts that EB-1 India will not advance and that the Final Action Date will return to February 22, 2017 at the start of FY2020. He expects EB-1 China to advance to May 8, 2017 in next month's visa bulletin.

Oppenheim predicts that EB-2 will remain current through the rest of the fiscal year. EB-2 China will advance to November 1, 2016 in the July visa bulletin, but Oppenheim warns that if demand increases, advancements in this category will slow down or stop. EB-2 India will likely advance slowly; demand is currently very high. There are 14,000 Indians with pending AOS applications filed in 2012. It is possible that lower EB-2 Worldwide demand will help this category advance this summer, but Oppenheim is unsure. USCIS assures AILA members that this situation is being closely monitored.

EB-3 Philippines will become current and EB-3 Mexico and EB-3 Worldwide will remain current in July 2019 according to Oppenheim. He expects EB-3 China to advance to January 1, 2016 in July and notes that demand for this category is increasing. The Final Action Date for EB-3 India will not move forward next month, and Oppenheim is unsure when it be able to advance.

Final Action Dates for EB-4 will remain current for most countries except El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Mexico. Oppenheim predicts that Final Action Date for these countries will remain at July 1, 2016 for the rest of FY2019.

The Final Action Date for EB-5 China is likely to remain for the rest of the fiscal year. EB-5 Vietnam and EB-5 India will reach their per country limits next month.

For More Information:
Read the June 2019 Visa Bulletin here and our blog post about it here.

This blog post does not serve as legal advice and does not establish any client-attorney privilege. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact our legal team directly.

Find us on LinkedIn.

This information comes from a news release from the American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA Doc. No. 14071401).

Categories: Employment-Based AOS, Visa Bulletin
Tags: AOS, charlie oppenheim, eb-1, eb-2, eb-3, eb-4, eb-5, Oppenheim, uscis

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[Desi Dude]

Can anyone answer this question -

Husband primary on EB2 (PD 2010), wife dependent. Wife got EB3 and then EB2 approved. Wife interfile request approved. Should the new PD be EB3 (PD 2009) or remain as husband's PD?

[lville]

Really hope they at-least accept EAD dates this time. I moved from EB3-I to EB2-I (PD May 22,2009). Moved cross country, changed my job cuz my new employer promised to switch my petition from EB3 to EB2. This sux :(

[anfu02]

Really hope they at-least accept EAD dates this time. I moved from EB3-I to EB2-I (PD May 22,2009). Moved cross country, changed my job cuz my new employer promised to switch my petition from EB3 to EB2. This sux :(

So many poignant stories, nothing to show for in terms of GC. I have been in this country since fall of 2001, at first law firm didn't file on time, then I delayed it. Here I am after so many years still waiting for my GC. Hang in there!!

[Maxray]

July bulletin is out. No movement for Eb3, 5 days movement for EB2.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-july-2019.html

[NJMavarick]

July bulletin is out. No movement for Eb3, 5 days movement for EB2.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-july-2019.html

It seems there will be little movement for EB3I through September. I am suspecting that we may not utilize the full EB3 quota for the year. Its going to be futile to follow the visa bulletin for the next few months. As they say in Hindi "Aasman se gire khajoor me aatke"! This is perpetual misery...

[EB22010Dec]

July bulletin is out. No movement for Eb3, 5 days movement for EB2.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-july-2019.html


rapid movement :) ?

[optimista]

rapid movement :) ?

And to add insult to injury, following is the potential monthly movement:
India EB2 - up to one week
India EB3 - Little if any forward movement

[rocketfast]

And to add insult to injury, following is the potential monthly movement:
India EB2 - up to one week
India EB3 - Little if any forward movement

Looks like, any spillovers are in hundreds (and not thousands) and will only be applied in September. So we are optimistically looking at +1 month for both EB2 and EB3.

For the year, game over boys. Now let us start drooling about the possible family based spillovers next year.

[jimmys]

It seems there will be little movement for EB3I through September. I am suspecting that we may not utilize the full EB3 quota for the year. Its going to be futile to follow the visa bulletin for the next few months. As they say in Hindi "Aasman se gire khajoor me aatke"! This is perpetual misery...


I don't know if they waste any visas in EB3. There are many people whose PDs are after July 1,2009 were already interviewed. Mostly they move dates in Aug/Sep bulletin and issue visas to them.

[prodigy_max4]

Hopefully not too off-topic, but wanted to post in this thread specifically since I've visited it (and its predecessors) so many times over the last decade :) Thanks to the various folks who provided the calculations and estimations that provided some sanity+hope...we finally got greened after ~11 years.

Just posting our story to show there is light at the end of the tunnel...even if it turns out to be very long and winding :)

Rough timeline:
- I had an EB-3 approved I-140 with priority date of October 2008 (India).
- My wife had an EB-2 approved I-140 with priority date of July 2009 (India).
- In 2012, we were able to apply for AOS and get EAD/APs under her application when the priority date for EB-2 India *briefly* moved past 2009 and before it retrogressed.
- From 2012 through 2018, we basically kept renewing our EAD/AP cards and refreshed medical RFEs for the pending AOS as needed. As well known in this forum, the EB-2 India priority date made very slooooooow progress over this period, especially in the last couple years.
- I moved to a different employer in 2018 and they applied for a new I-140 under EB-2 and got my original priority date ported over. I had not been able to switch from EB-3 to EB-2 at my previous employer..
- The new I-140 got approved earlier this year and the lawyers recommended applying for a new AOS under my own application, and also requesting USCIS to apply cross-chargeability on my wife's pending AOS. i.e.- I would become the primary applicant on my wife's pending AOS, she would become secondary and my October 2008 priority date could be applied to her application. Even though my own (new) AOS application would have eventually gotten approved since the priority date was current, it would have likely taken another 6-8+ months based on the mandatory interview requirement and getting this scheduled. So another benefit of using cross-chargeability on my wife's pending application was that because she had filed for AOS in 2012, there was no mandatory interview requirement.
- I had initially thought cross-chargeability was only an option when the applicants were of different nationalities, but that's apparently not the case. Our case is probably pretty niche though since it had: one pending application that had moved to the AOS phase but on hold due to retrogression and another application that involved EB3-to-EB2 porting with an earlier priority date than the first application.
- Either way, we have finally received the approval and card production notices for our GC applications concluding a process that started back in ~2008. I guess these days a wait time of 11 years is probably not that bad...

Good luck to you all as well :)

[Desi Dude]

Congrats to you and your family !!!!

Please tell how you did the cross chargeability process?

Also, why didn't your lawyers ask you to interfile rather than cross chargeability?

[prodigy_max4]

The lawyers handled all the paperwork but I believe there is no formal application for requesting cross-chargeability. Similar to interfiling, it's just a written request asking the officer reviewing to apply it. If they had not responded to the request within 60 days, there is apparently some way to ping them for an update. In our case though, it was clear the request was acknowledged since they issued an RFE to request some additional documentation about 2 weeks later. Then the actual 485 approval came about 3 weeks after we submitted the additional info. I'm not sure why they preferred to use cross-chargeability instead of interfiling. It's possible the underlying process for both is similar / the same since the latter is also just a request.

[AceMan]

Looks like, any spillovers are in hundreds (and not thousands) and will only be applied in September. So we are optimistically looking at +1 month for both EB2 and EB3.


"Worldwide: Expected to remain Current, but temporary corrective action may be required for September" This line in the bulletin ensures that there will be no spillovers.

For Eb2 it is less than a month for the entire year. Eb3 it did 6 months. The EB based immigration is fast turning into a farce, if it has not already!!!

[Desi Dude]

The lawyers handled all the paperwork but I believe there is no formal application for requesting cross-chargeability. Similar to interfiling, it's just a written request asking the officer reviewing to apply it. If they had not responded to the request within 60 days, there is apparently some way to ping them for an update. In our case though, it was clear the request was acknowledged since they issued an RFE to request some additional documentation about 2 weeks later. Then the actual 485 approval came about 3 weeks after we submitted the additional info. I'm not sure why they preferred to use cross-chargeability instead of interfiling. It's possible the underlying process for both is similar / the same since the latter is also just a request.


Thanks for the information. One more question if you don't mind -

If you hadn't done EB3 to EB2 porting, then would you have gotten your GC by the same process? (since EB3 is ahead of EB2 now)

[lville]

I give up. PD May 22, 2009 EB2-I. What's an average wait time to get EAD/AP now-a-days. I have said this before that I'll downgrade to EB3 but I stayed put hoping dates in EB2 will advance. But it looks like thats not going to happen.

Sending my lawyer an email to start the downgrade process to EB3. This is nightmare. I just moved cross contry, changed my job and had switched to EB2 just yr ago.

[vyruss]

I give up. PD May 22, 2009 EB2-I. What's an average wait time to get EAD/AP now-a-days. I have said this before that I'll downgrade to EB3 but I stayed put hoping dates in EB2 will advance. But it looks like thats not going to happen.

Sending my lawyer an email to start the downgrade process to EB3. This is nightmare. I just moved cross contry, changed my job and had switched to EB2 just yr ago.

A week movement in EB2 for the next two months and may be 3 days movement per month the next FY is what I am anticipating. That would mean May 22nd '09 will be current in 7 months time. Your decision to port is probably wise.

[prodigy_max4]

Thanks for the information. One more question if you don't mind -

If you hadn't done EB3 to EB2 porting, then would you have gotten your GC by the same process? (since EB3 is ahead of EB2 now)

Yep, that's true. If I had stayed at the previous employer, I could have technically filed for the AOS based on how quickly (and unexpectedly) the EB3 dates moved. The job move was done for career reasons though. But adding in the mandatory interview request time, it probably would have worked out to take the same time as what the employer switch + new EB-2 porting took. The EB2 porting was done for the new I-140 filing last year before the recent big jumps in the EB3 priority dates.

[lville]

Quick question- PD May 22, 2009 EB2-I

Say I downgrade to EB3 and file for 485 concurrently, and in a month or two EB3-I retrogresses behind EB2-I, Do I at-least get EAD/AP ? Don't matter if there is delay in GC But if I just get EAD/AP that would be really helpful.

Thank you

[jimmys]

Quick question- PD May 22, 2009 EB2-I

Say I downgrade to EB3 and file for 485 concurrently, and in a month or two EB3-I retrogresses behind EB2-I, Do I at-least get EAD/AP ? Don't matter if there is delay in GC But if I just get EAD/AP that would be really helpful.

Thank you

You would get you EAD/AP even if the EB3-I retrogresses. But for EB-3 to retrogress from Jul 1,2009, the chances are slim. Go ahead file it EB-3 and you are in great shape to get the GC in next 6-8 months.

[lville]

You would get you EAD/AP even if the EB3-I retrogresses. But for EB-3 to retrogress from Jul 1,2009, the chances are slim. Go ahead file it EB-3 and you are in great shape to get the GC in next 6-8 months.

Ok. Awesome!!! That's helpful. My lawyer has started downgrade paper-work. So hoping he's done in a week or so and file it. I'll check to see if he is able to file my I-140 under premium also.

Say he's not able to file I-140 under premium, would I still get EAD/AP before my I-140 and in that case would there be any problem traveling while my I-140 is pending ?

Thank you

[srimurthy]

You would get you EAD/AP even if the EB3-I retrogresses. But for EB-3 to retrogress from Jul 1,2009, the chances are slim. Go ahead file it EB-3 and you are in great shape to get the GC in next 6-8 months.

USCIS is increasing their own work and adding more layers and layers to each application by not moving dates in EB2 and 3. This is for sure ensuring that people file in both EB2 and EB3, to be ready for anywhere they can get the GC faster. Right now the best path would be to work in India for a year or two or if already working there, get a transfer to US and file in EB1 and get greened in 5 years.

[canada]

Most of the applications for EB2 are in April-1900, May -1448, June-1400 and then it drops significantly from July 2009-984, August 810.


That’s 6542. Of which April is almost done.

So it could be 4600 waiting as primary. Add one dependent per primary applicant. That’s 9200 to complete August 2009. So is it 3.5 years wait?

Is my analysis correct?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_2018 .pdf

[iatiam]

Most of the applications for EB2 are in April-1900, May -1448, June-1400 and then it drops significantly from July 2009-984, August 810.


That’s 6542. Of which April is almost done.

So it could be 4600 waiting as primary. Add one dependent per primary applicant. That’s 9200 to complete August 2009. So is it 3.5 years wait?

Is my analysis correct?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_2018 .pdf

Why are you adding one dependent per primary applicant? The inventory already contains this number since it is one application per person. So the number is close to 4,600 if your math is right. Add the number of people who would file in EB2 when dates move and subtract the number of downgraders which come be more next FY and you will get the number.

Iatiam

[canada]

Why are you adding one dependent per primary applicant? The inventory already contains this number since it is one application per person. So the number is close to 4,600 if your math is right. Add the number of people who would file in EB2 when dates move and subtract the number of downgraders which come be more next FY and you will get the number.

Iatiam

I agree... I was wrong to add dependents to the pending inventory. So 4600/2800 per year- Am I looking at 1.5 year to cross August 2009?

[iatiam]

I agree... I was wrong to add dependents to the pending inventory. So 4600/2800 per year- Am I looking at 1.5 year to cross August 2009?

Sounds about right. I, for one, believes that the downgrade from EB3 will accelerate next year and the dates may move slightly faster. In Trackitt I see a lot of folks with PD in May 2009 and onwards downgrading to EB3.

Iatiam

[newyorker123]

I am afraid we are pitted against a very hostile Admin :( And if Trump wins a second term (likely), its the end !
I see no hope with a 2013 date. Wait for our kids to sponsor, or change countries - and come back if desired to explore EB1

[visaboy]

Any chance EB-3 India will break the Aug 2009 cut off? Look like it came close 5 times in the last five years!

http://seekingvisa.com/

[lville]

What's the possibility they will accept filing Dates this time around ?

[mcmilers]

I am afraid we are pitted against a very hostile Admin :( And if Trump wins a second term (likely), its the end !
I see no hope with a 2013 date. Wait for our kids to sponsor, or change countries - and come back if desired to explore EB1

Don't expect Kids to sponsor. That route might have been closed by then. I think about going back to India everyday but it is a very hard decision to make especially after 18 years in the country !

[jimmys]

Sounds about right. I, for one, believes that the downgrade from EB3 will accelerate next year and the dates may move slightly faster. In Trackitt I see a lot of folks with PD in May 2009 and onwards downgrading to EB3.

Iatiam

Downgrade from EB-2 2009 dates will be still low. Only a very few employers will file the downgrade application for EB-2 2009 if any. The real pressure will come from EB-2 2010 date onward.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Never say never with this current climate but I think this is a bit different as regards to our kids sponsoring us. Taking away one of the rights of a natural born US Citizen hopefully will not and should not be that easy.

[newyorker123]

Never say never with this current climate but I think this is a bit different as regards to our kids sponsoring us. Taking away one of the rights of a natural born US Citizen hopefully will not and should not be that easy.

True, but anyway this possibility is years away, with most of our kids not even in teens I presume. Its way better to go abroad for a year and try for EB1C. I was hopeful for many years, now the hope is dead

[bikenlalan]

USCIS working to fasten 485 processing. This means you can get interview calls from FO's that are not in your service area.
https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/uscis-aims-decrease-processing-times-n-400-and-i-485

[idliman]

The sad summary for EB2I is that the movement is 26MAR09 (OCT18) to 24APR09 (JUL19). So in 10 bulletins, we had 29 days of movement. An average of 2.9 days movement per bulletin. :(

EB3I on the other hand moved from 01JAN09 (OCT18 bulletin) to 01JUL09 (JUL19 bulletin). Yay! we have 6 months of movement in 10 bulletins. About 0.6 month or 18 days of movement per bulletin on an average.

[lville]

Doesn't Look Good Fellas!! Current check-in with Charlie Oppenheim.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

I'm hoping they at-least accept dates for Filing for a month or two. What is the possibility of that happening ?

[imdeng]

Yup - no horizontal spillovers, no vertical spillovers. It looks pretty bleak out there.


Doesn't Look Good Fellas!! Current check-in with Charlie Oppenheim.

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

I'm hoping they at-least accept dates for Filing for a month or two. What is the possibility of that happening ?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Yup - no horizontal spillovers, no vertical spillovers. It looks pretty bleak out there.
Looks like Phillipines is the culprit for this. If Phillipines syncs with ROW, then expect good SO next FY.

[EB22010Dec]

Looks like Phillipines is the culprit for this. If Phillipines syncs with ROW, then expect good SO next FY.

:) ... talking about years like they are days.

[IamGSN]

Yup - no horizontal spillovers, no vertical spillovers. It looks pretty bleak out there.

Looks like downgrading to EB3 will not help much for EB2-I candidates as there is not much movement expected for EB3-India in near future. Going to be same wait time in either category for people in April - June and waiting to file I-485. Is there any chance of any little movement in August and September Bulletin for EB3-India?

[idliman]

Looks like downgrading to EB3 will not help much for EB2-I candidates as there is not much movement expected for EB3-India in near future. Going to be same wait time in either category for people in April - June and waiting to file I-485. Is there any chance of any little movement in August and September Bulletin for EB3-India?
For EB2I, we are in 24APR09. From the current trend, it looks like we might reach 01MAY09 in this fiscal year. For EB3I, because of the downward porting, CO is not able to move dates drastically. I think he already has an understanding of the demand for EB3I till end of 2009. So there is no need for him to move the dates to generate demand data.

It makes more sense to group EB2I and EB3I into a single pool from now on wards. Adding May09 to September09 EB2I inventory comes up to 5615 (closer to the annual limit of 5606). This excludes inventory of EB3I. As EB3I is already in 01JUL09, there cannot be more than 1000 individuals still waiting in queue. So the safest (most conservative) prediction for year 2020 is for EB2I to reach 01SEP09 by October2020. My guess is that EB3I may move 4 to 6 months and reach 01DEC09 by end of 2020 fiscal year.

EB2I Inventory-------------Cumulative
May-09----------1429
June-09----------1411------2840
July-09-----------968-------3808
August-09--------801-------4609
September-09---1006-------5615
October-09------1127-------6742
November-09----1000-------7742
December-09----1148-------8890

PD's moving further than this assumes Spillover. I cannot see any horizontal or vertical spillovers as of now.

[AceMan]

For EB2I, we are in 24APR09. From the current trend, it looks like we might reach 01MAY09 in this fiscal year. For EB3I, because of the downward porting, CO is not able to move dates drastically. I think he already has an understanding of the demand for EB3I till end of 2009. So there is no need for him to move the dates to generate demand data.

It makes more sense to group EB2I and EB3I into a single pool from now on wards. Adding May09 to September09 EB2I inventory comes up to 5615 (closer to the annual limit of 5606). This excludes inventory of EB3I. As EB3I is already in 01JUL09, there cannot be more than 1000 individuals still waiting in queue. So the safest (most conservative) prediction for year 2020 is for EB2I to reach 01SEP09 by October2020. My guess is that EB3I may move 4 to 6 months and reach 01DEC09 by end of 2020 fiscal year.

EB2I Inventory-------------Cumulative
May-09----------1429
June-09----------1411------2840
July-09-----------968-------3808
August-09--------801-------4609
September-09---1006-------5615
October-09------1127-------6742
November-09----1000-------7742
December-09----1148-------8890

PD's moving further than this assumes Spillover. I cannot see any horizontal or vertical spillovers as of now.

Till April 30th we had only under 2200 numbers for EB2, that too from July 2018 bulletin. We are still not passed April, which indicates the usage has not even reached the mandated minimum of 2803/4. If we factor in the EB2-India visa's issued in the last quarter of FY 18 this would be even lesser. Any PD less than 1st June 2009 clearly indicates loss of mandatory visa's, or a lot of derivative dependents were added later.

[canada]

For EB2I, we are in 24APR09. From the current trend, it looks like we might reach 01MAY09 in this fiscal year. For EB3I, because of the downward porting, CO is not able to move dates drastically. I think he already has an understanding of the demand for EB3I till end of 2009. So there is no need for him to move the dates to generate demand data.

It makes more sense to group EB2I and EB3I into a single pool from now on wards. Adding May09 to September09 EB2I inventory comes up to 5615 (closer to the annual limit of 5606). This excludes inventory of EB3I. As EB3I is already in 01JUL09, there cannot be more than 1000 individuals still waiting in queue. So the safest (most conservative) prediction for year 2020 is for EB2I to reach 01SEP09 by October2020. My guess is that EB3I may move 4 to 6 months and reach 01DEC09 by end of 2020 fiscal year.

EB2I Inventory-------------Cumulative
May-09----------1429
June-09----------1411------2840
July-09-----------968-------3808
August-09--------801-------4609
September-09---1006-------5615
October-09------1127-------6742
November-09----1000-------7742
December-09----1148-------8890

PD's moving further than this assumes Spillover. I cannot see any horizontal or vertical spillovers as of now.


Your safest( most conservative) prediction says September 1st by October 2020 but without any spillover how can EB2 India cross July 1st? Every year EB2 India receives only 2800.. with May and June having around 2840 pending.

Please correct me if I am missing something

Also with July, August, September pending cases -968+801+1006=2775- September 1st, 2009 by October 2021. Am I wrong in my calculations

With the drama USCIS is playing with not releasing the PI and a very hostile administration due to the GC interviews— it is a nightmare without any legislative relief

[idliman]

Your safest( most conservative) prediction says September 1st by October 2020 but without any spillover how can EB2 India cross July 1st? Every year EB2 India receives only 2800.. with May and June having around 2840 pending.

Please correct me if I am missing something

Also with July, August, September pending cases -968+801+1006=2775- September 1st, 2009 by October 2021. Am I wrong in my calculations

With the drama USCIS is playing with not releasing the PI and a very hostile administration due to the GC interviews— it is a nightmare without any legislative relief
I agree. For the math, I had grouped EB2I and EB3I numbers; 2803*2=5606; As people will be porting heavily and more likely have applications in both queues, I had assumed that both queues will essentially be the same in the next year.

Earlier most people had the thinking of PDs are within a few months and can wait in one queue. However recently it is becoming clear that every 3 months in EB2I adds up to one year or more delay.

Ace's comments about visa's being lost makes me hope that they will move EB2I in the next two bulletins. I still don't understand visa's being wasted by CO. Why?

[canada]

I agree. For the math, I had grouped EB2I and EB3I numbers; 2803*2=5606; As people will be porting heavily and more likely have applications in both queues, I had assumed that both queues will essentially be the same in the next year.

Earlier most people had the thinking of PDs are within a few months and can wait in one queue. However recently it is becoming clear that every 3 months in EB2I adds up to one year or more delay.

Ace's comments about visa's being lost makes me hope that they will move EB2I in the next two bulletins. I still don't understand visa's being wasted by CO. Why?


Now I understand why you grouped the two categories- as EB3 is practically empty. But the real test is will CO move EB3 aggressively? No. He will give excuses after excuses. I realize that basically EB3 is 473 cases pending as per July PI. Either they are bluffing with these numbers or just keeping us in the dark.

If someone who has EB2 India before March 2010 with their I485 Pending, I believe they rather want to carry on until their date becomes current as they can avoid interviews due to the fear or uneasiness. So these people might just stay put.

My question is why can’t EB3 be current for India with only 473 cases pending, while EB2 has 15000

[lville]

Will we ever go back to 2 week movement per Bulletin any time soon ?

[bluelabel]

Off Topic Question -

A person sponsored for GC by company A left after 2 years of filing I-485 and joined company B. Company A withdrew underlying I-140 in 2014, he quit company B after 5 years and joined company A again. is he eligible for AC 21?

[jimmys]

Till April 30th we had only under 2200 numbers for EB2, that too from July 2018 bulletin. We are still not passed April, which indicates the usage has not even reached the mandated minimum of 2803/4. If we factor in the EB2-India visa's issued in the last quarter of FY 18 this would be even lesser. Any PD less than 1st June 2009 clearly indicates loss of mandatory visa's, or a lot of derivative dependents were added later.

That's if you assume the pending inventory for July 2018 was accurate. And, you didn't factor CP cases.

[jimmys]

Looks like downgrading to EB3 will not help much for EB2-I candidates as there is not much movement expected for EB3-India in near future. Going to be same wait time in either category for people in April - June and waiting to file I-485. Is there any chance of any little movement in August and September Bulletin for EB3-India?

I,for one, hope to have a little movement in EB3 India in Aug/Sep bulletin. So I can be greened.....:o

[idliman]

Off Topic Question -
A person sponsored for GC by company A left after 2 years of filing I-485 and joined company B. Company A withdrew underlying I-140 in 2014, he quit company B after 5 years and joined company A again. is he eligible for AC 21?
I think you are overthinking it. The three conditions for doing an AC21 are:

I-140 has been approved, or is approvable when filed concurrently with I-485
Form I-485 has been pending for at least 180 days.
The proposed employment is in the "same or similar" occupational classification

Once the I485 has been pending for 180 days, you can do AC21. You can decide to inform USCIS whenever you want officially that you have ported by filing I485-J. This is my understanding; You may want to clarify this with your attorney.

[idliman]

bluelabel: Someone had original application (I485) with company A, then went places (B or C) and rejoined company A. In my opinion, as far as USCIS is concerned for I485 there is nothing you need to do. USCIS sent the pre-adjudicated I485 application to storage (archiving) and whenever you renew EAD+AP, they just verify that the application is pending. They don't care about anything else and don't have to know where you are now. When the PD is current (or going to be current), then USCIS is going to ask for medicals + I485J.

If you had already filed AC21 with companies B or C, then you might have to do it again.

Always please consult with your attorney.

[aquatican]

There is a legitimate concern by OP since company A field for I140and then withdrew it.
That could be argued that they hired back in a position created later . Curious what lawyers will say about it:

[idliman]

There is a legitimate concern by OP since company A field for I140and then withdrew it.
That could be argued that they hired back in a position created later . Curious what lawyers will say about it:
A basic search leads to Fragomen's analysis:
https://www.fragomen.com/insights/alerts/uscis-job-portability-rule-takes-effect

Portability and Priority Date Retention for I-140 Beneficiaries

The new regulation eases the impact of I-140 petition revocations and codifies certain longstanding agency policies on I-140 job portability.

A foreign national whose I-140 petition has been approved for 180 days or more will not have the petition automatically revoked if the employer goes out of business or withdraws the petition on or after January 17, 2017. However, the foreign national will need a new job offer or a new I-140 petition to obtain employment-based permanent residence.

An I-140 beneficiary whose petition is revoked will be able to use the priority date for a subsequent I-140 petition, unless the reason for revocation was fraud, material misrepresentation, invalidation or revocation of the underlying labor certification or material error in the approval of the petition.

Consistent with prior policy, the beneficiary of a pending I-140 will be able to port to new employment after his or her adjustment of status application has been pending for 180 days or more, as long as the pending I-140 petition was approvable when filed and remained approvable for 180 days after the filing of the adjustment application.

[bluelabel]

A basic search leads to Fragomen's analysis:
https://www.fragomen.com/insights/alerts/uscis-job-portability-rule-takes-effect

Portability and Priority Date Retention for I-140 Beneficiaries

The new regulation eases the impact of I-140 petition revocations and codifies certain longstanding agency policies on I-140 job portability.

A foreign national whose I-140 petition has been approved for 180 days or more will not have the petition automatically revoked if the employer goes out of business or withdraws the petition on or after January 17, 2017. However, the foreign national will need a new job offer or a new I-140 petition to obtain employment-based permanent residence.

An I-140 beneficiary whose petition is revoked will be able to use the priority date for a subsequent I-140 petition, unless the reason for revocation was fraud, material misrepresentation, invalidation or revocation of the underlying labor certification or material error in the approval of the petition.

Consistent with prior policy, the beneficiary of a pending I-140 will be able to port to new employment after his or her adjustment of status application has been pending for 180 days or more, as long as the pending I-140 petition was approvable when filed and remained approvable for 180 days after the filing of the adjustment application.

The person's I-140 is revoked by company A in 2014(prior to Jan 17 2017) because the person quit. Now they re-hired him after 5 years on EAD, will he be eligible for AC21? The confusion is it's the same company that sponsored his original I-140 so why AC21 will come into picture here. One lawyer advised to re apply I-140 again with the same labor approved 9.5 years ago.

[AceMan]

That's if you assume the pending inventory for July 2018 was accurate. And, you didn't factor CP cases.

Consulate Processing for Indian EB2 for the last 3 years are 72,75 and 82. 10 times increase in CP for 2008? I doubt.
And July 18th data numbers is consistent with the numbers from the year 2014.

[texas_]

No one wants to work at USCIS. Holding the pending inventory for a year now and holding the visa that should have been issued by mandatory statute
Crazy corrupt USCIS workers their karma would be paid eternally after death AMEN!!

[waitlist]

My PD is September, 2011 EB2 India

Per USCIS in 2018, it would take 5 years to reach January 2011 for EB2 India which should be around October, 2023.

Mr. Oppenheim explained that there are 14,400 “pre-adjudicated” Indian I-485 applications in the EB-2 category that have not yet used an EB-2 number. Because there are approximately 2,800 visas available per year in this category, Mr. Oppenheim estimates that it will take approximately 5 years to process the known Indian demand for applicants with EB-2 Priority Dates earlier than January 2011.

How many pending applicants from January, 2011 to August, 2011? How much time will it take to clear from January, 2011 to August, 2011 without spillovers?

Should PD September, 2011 India stay in EB2 or downgrade to EB3?

Can any gurus share their thoughts.

[canada]

Not trying to discourage you but... to clear 2009 - it’s going to take 2023 based on July 2018 pending inventory.

There are 1400 and 1400 in May and June 2009 waiting... As of today we have not cleared April 2009 yet.

So May and June 2009 will clear in 2020 and July, August, September 2009 will clear in 2021.

October, November, December 2009 will clear by 2022 or 2023.

Then we have 2010 ... we have around 4700 Pending... so it takes 2025 to clear April2010

The above is applicable if you stay in EB2 but you wait and see how EB3 is moving ahead and if it crosses September 2011- try to downgrade to EB3.

The problem is we don’t have latest PI and everything is uncertain

The other issue is people already on EAD filed in 2012 might not want to downport and go through the interview

Good luck

[NJMavarick]

My PD is September, 2011 EB2 India

Per USCIS in 2018, it would take 5 years to reach January 2011 for EB2 India which should be around October, 2023.

Mr. Oppenheim explained that there are 14,400 “pre-adjudicated” Indian I-485 applications in the EB-2 category that have not yet used an EB-2 number. Because there are approximately 2,800 visas available per year in this category, Mr. Oppenheim estimates that it will take approximately 5 years to process the known Indian demand for applicants with EB-2 Priority Dates earlier than January 2011.

How many pending applicants from January, 2011 to August, 2011? How much time will it take to clear from January, 2011 to August, 2011 without spillovers?

Should PD September, 2011 India stay in EB2 or downgrade to EB3?

Can any gurus share their thoughts.

Given the current movement, it seems it could be anywhere between 2025 and 2030. BTW, my PD is also in 2011.

Well, in another 11 years, I can have my son sponsor me :) The only other way we can get it sooner is if a bill passes in Congress that relieves us from this slavery

[Spectator]

My PD is September, 2011 EB2 India

Per USCIS in 2018, it would take 5 years to reach January 2011 for EB2 India which should be around October, 2023.

Mr. Oppenheim explained that there are 14,400 “pre-adjudicated” Indian I-485 applications in the EB-2 category that have not yet used an EB-2 number. Because there are approximately 2,800 visas available per year in this category, Mr. Oppenheim estimates that it will take approximately 5 years to process the known Indian demand for applicants with EB-2 Priority Dates earlier than January 2011.

How many pending applicants from January, 2011 to August, 2011? How much time will it take to clear from January, 2011 to August, 2011 without spillovers?

Should PD September, 2011 India stay in EB2 or downgrade to EB3?

Can any gurus share their thoughts.

The statement in the article is not consistent with clearing pending applications with a PD prior to January 2011 in 5 years @ 2,803 approvals per year.

No applications are pending beyond April 2010 and the 14,400 figure is fairly consistent with known pending applications to that date.

PERM certifications started to rise sharply for India after this time.

There were 5,583 Indian PERM certifications with a PD of Jan-Apr 2010. These have translated to 4,677 pending EB2-I I-485 applications in the July 2018 USCIS Inventory (a factor of 83.77%).

If we use the known EB2-I pending applications for May 2009 - April 2010 from the July 2018 Inventory (13,567) and then use the above factor on PERM certifications after that date, there would be 45,778 I-485 pending for EB2-I before September 2011.

At 2,803 approvals / year, this would imply around a 16 year wait. At 6,000 approvals / year this would reduce to around 7.5 years.

I don't do predictions, so the above is just an example so that you can play around with the figures and assumptions should you wish to.

The PERM certification data can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data).

[canada]

The statement in the article is not consistent with clearing pending applications with a PD prior to January 2011 in 5 years @ 2,803 approvals per year.

No applications are pending beyond April 2010 and the 14,400 figure is fairly consistent with known pending applications to that date.

PERM certifications started to rise sharply for India after this time.

There were 5,583 Indian PERM certifications with a PD of Jan-Apr 2010. These have translated to 4,677 pending EB2-I I-485 applications in the July 2018 USCIS Inventory (a factor of 83.77%).

If we use the known EB2-I pending applications for May 2009 - April 2010 from the July 2018 Inventory (13,567) and then use the above factor on PERM certifications after that date, there would be 45,778 I-485 pending for EB2-I before September 2011.

At 2,803 approvals / year, this would imply around a 16 year wait. At 6,000 approvals / year this would reduce to around 7.5 years.

I don't do predictions, so the above is just an example so that you can play around with the figures and assumptions should you wish to.

The PERM certification data can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data).


WOW!!!!

So I checked the PERM certifications for 2009 and there are none as per the link you mentioned. Does my analysis hold true that without spillover- I am looking at June 2021 to get my August 2009 date current with 2800 GC for EB2 ? There are 1400 for May and 1400 for 2009 June, 2009 July-900, August 800 PI

Thanks

[Spectator]

WOW!!!!

So I checked the PERM certifications for 2009 and there are none as per the link you mentioned. Does my analysis hold true that without spillover- I am looking at June 2021 to get my August 2009 date current with 2800 GC for EB2 ? There are 1400 for May and 1400 for 2009 June, 2009 July-900, August 800 PI

Thanks

The certifications are in this thread (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India) (Post #3 for 2009), but you already have the Inventory for 2009.

[NJMavarick]

WOW!!!!

So I checked the PERM certifications for 2009 and there are none as per the link you mentioned. Does my analysis hold true that without spillover- I am looking at June 2021 to get my August 2009 date current with 2800 GC for EB2 ? There are 1400 for May and 1400 for 2009 June, 2009 July-900, August 800 PI

Thanks

@Canada and @WaitList

Check the below posts to derive the estimated waiting period:

#4905
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=61996&viewfull=1#post61996

#4912
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62005&viewfull=1#post62005

also #4911

[canada]

@Canada and @WaitList

Check the below posts to derive the estimated waiting period:

#4905
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=61996&viewfull=1#post61996

#4912
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62005&viewfull=1#post62005

also #4911


I read the link from gc1999 and he mentioned

"People who have already in EB2 with 485 EAD and employer not ready for downgrade , stay put. Next 1 year its possible to clear Aug/Sep 2009. Beyond that its doubtful
Other wise explore options, try to get a EB3 PERM and then use a complete I140 and get GC faster. "

Now I have an approved I-140 from a teaching hospital in medical field and cannot downgrade to EB3 but does not have EAD

[swaugh]

Does anyone know if USCIS Field Office will schedule an interview for EB based 485 application while the priority date is NOT current? Or does the Filed Office schedule and conduct the interview based on 485 filing and approve the application when the priority date becomes current?

[jimmys]

My I-485 EB interview was scheduled when my PD was not current(There were many people whose interviews were scheduled when they weren't current as well for EB).

[canada]

I am a novice in the US immigration terminology. So the PERM numbers only matter from April 2010 and since I am August 28,2009 EB2- India, I would base my calculations only on PI of July 2018. If the PI numbers are true and no spillover and NO downporting from EB2 to EB3, I could be expecting to be current in 1.5-2 years. Today I learnt something new about these PERM numbers and the situation is really terrible for someone after April 2010. Thanks for explaining Spectator

[Spectator]

I am a novice in the US immigration terminology. So the PERM numbers only matter from April 2010 and since I am August 28,2009 EB2- India, I would base my calculations only on PI of July 2018. If the PI numbers are true and no spillover and now downporting from EB2 to EB3, I could be expecting to be current in 1.5-2 years. Today I learnt something new about these PERM numbers and the situation is really terrible for someone after April 2010. Thanks for explaining Spectator

canada,

You're on the right track. What you will find frustrating, is the assumptions you have to make without good evidence to make them.

I think everyone is very frustrated that USCIS have reverted to their old ways and don't want to release any information publicly.

With the change in the way I-485 are processed at Field Offices (FO, rather than Service Centers (SC), the Inventory data had become less useful, but not useless.

Below summarizes the data on I-485 pending inventory from one of the reports that is still published.


--------- USCIS PENDING I-485 INVENTORY ---------
FY -- QTR ------ FO --------- SC ---------- Total
2016 - Q1 ----- 3,814 ----- 121,347 ----- 125,161
2016 - Q2 ----- 3,196 ----- 121,391 ----- 124,587
2016 - Q3 ----- 4,056 ----- 116,772 ----- 120,828
2016 - Q4 ----- 4,440 ----- 124,984 ----- 129,424
2017 - Q1 ----------- UNKNOWN ----------- 138,219
2017 - Q2 ----- 4,228 ----- 134,119 ----- 138,347
2017 - Q3 ----- 4,275 ----- 144,272 ----- 148,547
2017 - Q4 ----- 9,614 ----- 139,768 ----- 149,382
2018 - Q1 ---- 27,843 ----- 114,734 ----- 142,577
2018 - Q2 ---- 47,591 ----- 115,084 ----- 162,675
2018 - Q3 ---- 72,311 ------ 76,868 ----- 149,179
2018 - Q4 ---- 89,247 ------ 71,776 ----- 161,023
2019 - Q1 ---- 90,895 ------ 63,721 ----- 154,616
2019 - Q2 ---- 97,916 ------ 50,474 ----- 148,390

The report always shows zero for NBC.

Perhaps it's also worth noting that the recent reductions are probably illusory.

EB1 was Current for all Countries until April 2018. By the end of FY2019 - Q2, the latest pending I-485 for EB1-IC would be March 2018 and the latest pending I-485 for EB1-ROW would be July 2018.

Since those dates, EB1 approvals would reduce the pending figure but there have been no new additions for EB1 to the pending inventory.

[waitlist]

The statement in the article is not consistent with clearing pending applications with a PD prior to January 2011 in 5 years @ 2,803 approvals per year.

No applications are pending beyond April 2010 and the 14,400 figure is fairly consistent with known pending applications to that date.

PERM certifications started to rise sharply for India after this time.

There were 5,583 Indian PERM certifications with a PD of Jan-Apr 2010. These have translated to 4,677 pending EB2-I I-485 applications in the July 2018 USCIS Inventory (a factor of 83.77%).

If we use the known EB2-I pending applications for May 2009 - April 2010 from the July 2018 Inventory (13,567) and then use the above factor on PERM certifications after that date, there would be 45,778 I-485 pending for EB2-I before September 2011.

At 2,803 approvals / year, this would imply around a 16 year wait. At 6,000 approvals / year this would reduce to around 7.5 years.

I don't do predictions, so the above is just an example so that you can play around with the figures and assumptions should you wish to.

The PERM certification data can be found here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data).

Thanks for the reply.

I am good at analyzing PERM data or pending inventory data.

How many pending applications in EB2 and EB3 from now till December, 2011 and then from January to September, 2011 based on last available inventory data?

It makes me wonder why would Mr. Oppenheimer make that statement as he has access to data that is available in public (and data available only to him) and can deduce it correctly. What did he miss when he made that deduction?

[AceMan]

Thanks for the reply.

I am good at analyzing PERM data or pending inventory data.

How many pending applications in EB2 and EB3 from now till December, 2011 and then from January to September, 2011 based on last available inventory data?

It makes me wonder why would Mr. Oppenheimer make that statement as he has access to data that is available in public (and data available only to him) and can deduce it correctly. What did he miss when he made that deduction?

While it is good to look till 2011, I have to point out to downgrade scenario where the numbers get duplicated in both EB2 and EB3. EB3 I was predicted 1-3 months movement in February and it came to a grinding halt for the last 3 months. Last bulletin it was predicted that ROW is having a big demand. It might be a pointer that EB3 I might not get more than 3000, far cry from the 6000's we got in 2017 and 2018.

The 2-3 days nonsensical movement for EB2I ensured that even people with EAD in EB2 started doing the downgrade, in addition to the people till April 2010 who started their downgrade when the filing dates were getting accepted. This mess is going to sustain for a longer duration without any meaningful immigration reform, no matter whatever analytical and reasonable deductions we come up with.

[march1612]

If there is no visibility or No demand data available in EB3-India , why was EB3-I not made current like ROW?. By not making EB3-India current will only make me conclude that CO and USCIS know the demand (or) There is a heavy downgrade porting from EB2 India to EB3 India.

[Spectator]

Just a gentle reminder that this is the EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) thread.

If people want to post about Bill and Politics, then do so in the correct thread.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2696-Bills-Rules-amp-Politics

If you choose not to, then the posts will be moved there.

[swaugh]

Hi Spectator - how would you calculate when Jan 1st 2010 EB3I will be current? I would like to know the strategy you would use to do this. Thank you.

[Spectator]

Hi Spectator - how would you calculate when Jan 1st 2010 EB3I will be current? I would like to know the strategy you would use to do this. Thank you.

I wouldn't attempt to.

There's no information to use and too many assumptions to be made.

I wouldn't really do it for EB2-I either, but at least there is some historical data on "actual" numbers from when the PD surpassed July 2007.

That doesn't exist for EB3-I because the new FO processing was already in place and those numbers never hit any Inventory Reports.

The latest Cut Off Date allowed for filing an EB3-I I-485 was 01APR10 in January 2019. I don't think anyone has any idea of how many applications were received for the period August 2007 to March 2010. Without even the barest information, everything is guesswork, not prediction.

There's no data about the any effect of the EB3-I PD being ahead of EB2-I and how that might affect the numbers.


One effect I have noticed is on the number of EB3-I Consular Processed approvals.

The Filing Cut Off date exceeded July 2007 in October 2017 for CP cases. In FY2017 and prior years, there were approx. 150-200 EB3-I CP cases approved per year.

In FY2018, this rose to about 750 cases.

In FY2019 up to the end of May the figure stands at 1,365.

Without knowing that information, would you (or could you) have guessed it?

[swaugh]

Spectator - thank you for your inputs.

[AceMan]

Just a gentle reminder that this is the EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) thread.

If people want to post about Bill and Politics, then do so in the correct thread.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2696-Bills-Rules-amp-Politics

If you choose not to, then the posts will be moved there.

Sure Spec, I will also try not to put feeders for political and bills while doing the calculations.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Quick question on cross charge-ability: If my EB2-I PD is May 2010 and my wife applies in EB1B-I, can we take advantage of the earlier PD filing jointly or can she only file when the primary's EB1-I date is current? TIA!

[Spectator]

Quick question on cross charge-ability: If my EB2-I PD is May 2010 and my wife applies in EB1B-I, can we take advantage of the earlier PD filing jointly or can she only file when the primary's EB1-I date is current? TIA!
Unfortunately, priority date retention does not allow the transfer of one priority date to another spouse.

A Priority Date is attached to an individual whose I-140 has been approved ("the alien") and can't be cross charged to a spouse ("a different alien") approved I-140.


8CFR 204.5
(e) Retention of section 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) priority date.

(1) A petition approved on behalf of an alien under sections 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) [EB1, EB2 or EB3] of the Act accords the alien the priority date of the approved petition for any subsequently filed petition for any classification under section 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act for which the alien may qualify. In the event that the alien is the beneficiary of multiple approved petitions under section 203(b)(1), (2), or (3) of the Act, the alien shall be entitled to the earliest priority date.

You could have a subsequent EB1 EB2 or EB3 petition approved and claim your May 2010 PD for it.

Your wife can't claim your PD where she will be the primary applicant because she is using her own I-140 approval as the basis to file I-485.

[qesehmk]

Unfortunately, priority date retention does not allow the transfer of one priority date to another spouse.

A Priority Date is attached to an individual whose I-140 has been approved ("the alien") and can't be cross charged to a spouse ("a different alien") approved I-140.



You could have a subsequent EB1 EB2 or EB3 petition approved and claim your May 2010 PD for it.

Your wife can't claim your PD where she will be the primary applicant because she is using her own I-140 approval as the basis to file I-485.

I thought about it. And while this technically and legally may be correct; this can easily be circumvented by
a) The EB2 person filing as beneficiary with the EB1 spouse. EB2 person certainly retains his 2010 PD and thus gets approved.
b) The EB1 spouse can get approved immediately using "follow to join" rules as long as spouse was on EB2's application as beneficiary. This #2 please consult with lawyers. I am not entirely sure about this.

[stylorogue]

Hi Spec

qn on this - how do you know that C/P 2019 cases are that high until May?

Just curious - my p/d is early May 2009 EB3-I and I still haven't gotten an interview - trying to figure out how many people are ahead and at C/P if thats possible.

Also read somewhere that eb3-I approvals haven't cleared April 2009 yet - heavy demand and not sure how much but the FA date has been stalled and won't move this f-year means there is demand ?

[Spectator]

I thought about it. And while this technically and legally may be correct; this can easily be circumvented by
a) The EB2 person filing as beneficiary with the EB1 spouse. EB2 person certainly retains his 2010 PD and thus gets approved.
b) The EB1 spouse can get approved immediately using "follow to join" rules as long as spouse was on EB2's application as beneficiary. This #2 please consult with lawyers. I am not entirely sure about this.
Q,

In case #1 The primary files with their Category and PD date (EB1). Whether the dependent has, or doesn't have, their own approved I-140 and PD is irrelevant, since it is not transferable. The PD for EB1, established by the primary' I-140 approval would have to be current at the time of filing the I-485 applications.

In case #2 then the spouse would be the dependent of the husband's EB2 and 2010 PD, so EB2-I for the 2010 PD would have to be current.

All that is transferable, from dependent to primary, is the dependent's Country of Chargeability, if that is advantageous.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec

qn on this - how do you know that C/P 2019 cases are that high until May?

Just curious - my p/d is early May 2009 EB3-I and I still haven't gotten an interview - trying to figure out how many people are ahead and at C/P if thats possible.

Also read somewhere that eb3-I approvals haven't cleared April 2009 yet - heavy demand and not sure how much but the FA date has been stalled and won't move this f-year means there is demand ?

DOS publishes a detailed breakdown of each month's CP approvals by Category and Country. Each month can be found here (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html).

redsox usually publishes a breakdown each month and cumulative figures (although hasn't yet for the May figures).

Here's a breakdown for FY2019 until the end of May 2019 for both EB and FB:

Country --------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total
China ----------- 461 ---- 120 ---- 144 ------ 6 -- 2,418 --- 3,149
India ----------- 142 ----- 35 -- 1,365 ----- 91 ---- 350 --- 1,983
Mexico ----------- 17 ----- 22 ---- 380 ----- 36 ----- 38 ----- 493
Philippines ------- 1 ---- 145 -- 3,055 ----- 43 ----- 10 --- 3,254
ROW ------------- 903 -- 2,132 -- 4,914 -- 1,228 -- 2,174 -- 11,351
Grand Total --- 1,524 -- 2,454 -- 9,858 -- 1,404 -- 4,990 -- 20,230


Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
China ----------- 291 -- 2,025 ---- 485 -- 1,141 -- 3,409 --- 7,351
India ----------- 139 ---- 626 ----- 66 -- 2,793 -- 4,806 --- 8,430
Mexico ---------- 900 - 11,627 ---- 508 ---- 730 -- 1,877 -- 15,642
Philippines --- 1,036 -- 2,451 -- 3,147 ---- 780 -- 1,842 --- 9,256
ROW ---------- 12,231 - 29,592 -- 8,568 - 10,229 - 22,191 -- 82,811
Grand Total -- 14,597 - 46,321 - 12,774 - 15,673 - 34,125 - 123,490


I hope redsox will return to publishing the figures in future.

The last numbers for cases waiting for Consular Processing at the NVC was as at November 1st 2018. https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2018.pdf

At that time, there were 21,385 EB3-I Skilled Worker/Professional cases on the list, but this covers all cases with an approved I-140 who chose Consular Processing and covers PD far beyond those that are Current. As such, the numbers are perhaps something of a 'red herring'.

[qesehmk]

Q,

In case #1 The primary files with their Category and PD date (EB1). Whether the dependent has, or doesn't have, their own approved I-140 and PD is irrelevant, since it is not transferable. The PD for EB1, established by the primary' I-140 approval would have to be current at the time of filing the I-485 applications.

In case #2 then the spouse would be the dependent of the husband's EB2 and 2010 PD, so EB2-I for the 2010 PD would have to be current.

All that is transferable, from dependent to primary, is the dependent's Country of Chargeability, if that is advantageous.

Spec,

So in case #1 the EB2 spouse when files 485 as EB1 dependent, retains his EB2 PD, isn't it? Thus s/he may benefit in his EB1 485 processing even if overall EB1 regresses. Now I do understand that DoS may try to control dates really tight for EB1 (like any other category). But for people who are waiting over a decade, what's 500-1000 dollars if that means their GC can be processed a few months earlier!!

Once s/he is approved, then case #2 comes into picture. I do not understand those rules well enough. But there may be room there and hence a lawyer is required.

[suninphx]

Spec,

So in case #1 the EB2 spouse when files 485 as EB1 dependent, retains his EB2 PD, isn't it? Thus s/he may benefit in his EB1 485 processing even if overall EB1 regresses. Now I do understand that DoS may try to control dates really tight for EB1 (like any other category). But for people who are waiting over a decade, what's 500-1000 dollars if that means their GC can be processed a few months earlier!!

Once s/he is approved, then case #2 comes into picture. I do not understand those rules well enough. But there may be room there and hence a lawyer is required.

Once you file as a dependent your own PD becomes irrelevant for that filing and processing is based on primary's PD. Your PD has relevance only when you file as primary- This is what I understood from Spec's post.

[qesehmk]

Once you file as a dependent your own PD becomes irrelevant for that filing and processing is based on primary's PD. Your PD has relevance only when you file as primary- This is what I understood from Spec's post.
Makes no sense to me. But I am not going to argue since I am not a lawyer. I think the EB2 guy should definitely carry his/her PD to any category including family. What's the point of having a PD and then have ability to retain it only to lose it when you file in another category.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Thank you for the responses! I will also definitely check with my attorney too when I get a chance and update the thread.

[texas_]

Please guide me Gurus,

My current project is going to complete by End of August 2019 and my H1 is also valid thru end of August 2019.

However I found another project with same title but with different end client which is 3 miles away from my current project. Roles are identical - Developer on my current project and new one.
Since they both are in same MSA can I join the new client since my previous LCA covered the same city/MSA?

Please guide me

Thanks
Jay

[IamGSN]

You will need to file H1 extension along with new MSA, PO and Client letter, I don't think you will need to file an amendment. Since you are filing extension, you can start with new project. There should not be any issue, consult and confirm with your attorney. Mine is also same situation, I filed amendment + extension, and I started with new project.

[texas_]

My company attorney says since it is within same MSA (both end clients are 3 miles of each other )and new job role is identical with current LCA. You dont need to file amendment.

Also, I can start working with new end client and within 30 days of joining I need to file extension and amendment

So I was asking experts advise to ensure there's a provision like this available

https://www.rnlawgroup.com/h-1b/485-employer-guidelines-change-of-location-on-h-1b-msa-defined

[aquatican]

My company attorney says since it is within same MSA (both end clients are 3 miles of each other )and new job role is identical with current LCA. You dont need to file amendment.

Also, I can start working with new end client and within 30 days of joining I need to file extension and amendment

So I was asking experts advise to ensure there's a provision like this available

https://www.rnlawgroup.com/h-1b/485-employer-guidelines-change-of-location-on-h-1b-msa-defined

This post is rather ancient. The last i knew was a very specific memo about 'Client Location' and Changes which made Client Changes very strict. I would find that and read that.
Here is a link - https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/2018/2018-02-22-PM-602-0157-Contracts-and-Itineraries-Requirements-for-H-1B.pdf

Here is the post Simeo ruling . https://www.uscis.gov/archive/uscis-draft-guidance-when-file-amended-h-1b-petition-after-simeio-solutions-decision

It seems you are fine.

[texas_]

This post is rather ancient. The last i knew was a very specific memo about 'Client Location' and Changes which made Client Changes very strict. I would find that and read that.
Here is a link - https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/2018/2018-02-22-PM-602-0157-Contracts-and-Itineraries-Requirements-for-H-1B.pdf

Here is the post Simeo ruling . https://www.uscis.gov/archive/uscis-draft-guidance-when-file-amended-h-1b-petition-after-simeio-solutions-decision

It seems you are fine.

Thanks Aquatican. As I read it correctly USCIS points out that one MUST file amendment if the new client/job is outside current MSA. However if the MSA remains same or withing proximity of counties you can join with existing and within few weeks you need file amendment + extension at that point.

Thanks for the info that helps
Jay

[aquatican]

Thanks Aquatican. As I read it correctly USCIS points out that one MUST file amendment if the new client/job is outside current MSA. However if the MSA remains same or withing proximity of counties you can join with existing and within few weeks you need file amendment + extension at that point.

Thanks for the info that helps
Jay

Curious where you see that - 'However if the MSA remains same or withing proximity of counties you can join with existing and within few weeks you need file amendment + extension at that point.'
I read it as if you are within MSA you need to post LCA at new client site.

[jimmys]

My company attorney says since it is within same MSA (both end clients are 3 miles of each other )and new job role is identical with current LCA. You dont need to file amendment.

Also, I can start working with new end client and within 30 days of joining I need to file extension and amendment

So I was asking experts advise to ensure there's a provision like this available

https://www.rnlawgroup.com/h-1b/485-employer-guidelines-change-of-location-on-h-1b-msa-defined

I did this. I moved within the MSA and there was no need to file an amendment. After 6 months moving to the new location, I had to do my H-1 extension that was due. It all went fine. Bottom line is, a move within MSA doesn't warrant an amendment. And, your subsequent extension will be fine.

[texas_]

Curious where you see that - 'However if the MSA remains same or withing proximity of counties you can join with existing and within few weeks you need file amendment + extension at that point.'
I read it as if you are within MSA you need to post LCA at new client site.

I meant to say you need to file LCA for the new client but you can still join new client before filing amendment provided it is within same MSA. But there needed a subsequent amendment and extension needed to file if any after joining at new client location

[swaugh]

August VB is released, EB3I has retrogressed to 2006 and 8 days forward movement for EB2I.

[vbollu]

August VB is released, EB3I has retrogressed to 2006 and 8 days forward movement for EB2I.

Seems you got miscalculated for EB2I, actually it backwards 78 days.

[whereismygc]

Don't mean to spam this thread. This is a link on a post about WhereismyGC's forecast accuracy this year.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/900-WhereismyGC-com-Related-Discussion-amp-Updates?p=62360&viewfull=1#post62360 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/900-WhereismyGC-com-Related-Discussion-amp-Updates?p=62360&viewfull=1#post62360)

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Seems you got miscalculated for EB2I, actually it backwards 78 days.

There is retrogression across the board.

[Desi Dude]

If your PD is current today and you are pre-adjudicated; but will retrogress next month, do they still process your case?

[aquatican]

Seems you got miscalculated for EB2I, actually it backwards 78 days.

and you calculated that how for EB2I? :)

[paramjit74]

Seems you got miscalculated for EB2I, actually it backwards 78 days.

How is it backwards? 24APR09 to 02MAY09 is 8 days forward. Am I missing something?

[vbollu]

How is it backwards? 24APR09 to 02MAY09 is 8 days forward. Am I missing something?

sorry it's my fault.

[vbollu]

and you calculated that how for EB2I? :)

sorry it's my fault.

[stylorogue]

Qn on Cross Chargeability -

Hi Spec - my p/d is may 2009 eb3I - opted for consular processing - mumbai - we live in India now - today the bulletin was released and the dates retrogressed to 2006.

My spouse who is the derivative beneficiary on my application is from ROW and her dates are current. Clear case for applying cross chargeabilty i believe

whats the process to push forward - our applications are complete and at the NVC - please suggest next steps to advance the interview date - thanks much

[idliman]

Our HR team forwarded these wordings from the immigration firm:
According to the State Department’s August Visa Bulletin, significant retrogression will occur for most employment-based categories next month, while EB-2 India will advance ahead of EB-3 India for the first time in many months.

I initially was excited that EB2I may cross 01JUL09. After careful thought it becomes clear that is just normal info published with a PR spin. Right now EB3I is retrogressed to 01JAN06 and EB2I is at 02MAY09. So even a few days will make the law firms "advice to their clients" correct.

Now that we are on firm ground, is it possible for EB2I to cross 01JUL09 in the September bulletin?

[AceMan]

Our HR team forwarded these wordings from the immigration firm:
According to the State Department’s August Visa Bulletin, significant retrogression will occur for most employment-based categories next month, while EB-2 India will advance ahead of EB-3 India for the first time in many months.

I initially was excited that EB2I may cross 01JUL09. After careful thought it becomes clear that is just normal info published with a PR spin. Right now EB3I is retrogressed to 01JAN06 and EB2I is at 02MAY09. So even a few days will make the law firms "advice to their clients" correct.

Now that we are on firm ground, is it possible for EB2I to cross 01JUL09 in the September bulletin?

Some thing very interesting in this bulletin. Now China, is having same PD as the ROW except for EB3 other category.

I suspect something really sinister is going on, when all the other categories are retrogressed, China moving forward in both EB2 and 3.

[Spectator]

Some thing very interesting in this bulletin. Now China, is having same PD as the ROW except for EB3 other category.

I suspect something really sinister is going on, when all the other categories are retrogressed, China moving forward in both EB2 and 3.

I really don't see anything sinister at all.

It just means neither EB2-C or EB3-C has yet reached their 7% limits.

Back in May, CO said:


EB-2 China will advance to November 1, 2016 in the July 2019 bulletin. This category continues to advance rapidly due to low demand. Advancements in this category could slow in the future if demand increases.
and

EB-3 China should advance to January 1, 2016 in July 2019. Demand in this category is starting to increase. However, if demand in EB-2 China remains steady, it may be possible to shift some of those numbers to EB-3 China.

EB2-C was already 01NOV16 in the July 2019 VB. It can't be set later than the Worldwide Cut Off Date, so it shares the 01JAN17 EB2-Worldwide one in August 2019.
Similarly, EB3-C was already 01JAN16 in the July 2019 VB. It now shares the 01JUL16 Cut Off Date set for EB3-Worldwide.

Regardless, bar a few Consular Processed cases, the movement isn't going to result in extra approvals in FY2019 for either EB2-C or EB3-C. Instead, it is perhaps a way of building some demand for FY2020, given that Filing Dates have not been available to AOS applicants since January 2019. At that time, the Filing Date for EB2-C was 08SEP15 and EB3-C was 01JAN16. Final Action Dates very quickly exceeded the EB2-C date, but August 2019 will be the first time the EB3-C Filing Date has been exceeded since that time.


EB2-I continues to move ahead slowly because it has not yet reached the 7% limit. In June, CO said:

EB-2 India advances 5 days to April 24, 2009 in July. Charlie predicts that this category will continue to advance at a pace of up to one week until the limit is reached.

EB3-I appears to be have reached (or be very near) their limit for FY2019, given that the date has retrogressed from 01JUL09 in the July 2019 VB to 01JAN06 in the August 2019 VB.

[ak7419]

Thanks Spectator. Perhaps we will see one more round of 5-day advance movement in EB2I which takes it to May 7, 2009. ROW retrogression indicates that there will be no spillover to EB2I. Is that correct assumption?

[AceMan]

I really don't see anything sinister at all.

It just means neither EB2-C or EB3-C has yet reached their 7% limits.

Back in May, CO said:


and


EB2-C was already 01NOV16 in the July 2019 VB. It can't be set later than the Worldwide Cut Off Date, so it shares the same one as EB2-Worldwide in August 2019.
Similarly, EB3-C was already 01JAN16 in the July 2019 VB. It now shares the 01JUL16 Cut Off Date set for EB3-Worldwide.

Speculating, I think the low demand in EB2-C is partly caused by the number of applicants who have down ported to EB3, chasing the most favorable Cut Off Date.

Regardless, bar a few Consular Processed cases, the movement isn't going to result in extra approvals in FY2019 for either EB2-C or EB3-C. Instead, it is perhaps a way of building some demand for FY2020, given that Filing Dates have not been available to AOS applicants since January 2019. At that time, the Filing Date for EB2-C was 08SEP15 and EB3-C was 01JAN16. Final Action Dates very quickly exceeded the EB2-C date, but August 2019 will be the first time the EB3-C Filing Date has been exceeded since that time.


EB2-I continues to move ahead slowly because it has not yet reached the 7% limit. In June, CO said:


EB3-I appears to be have reached (or be very near) their limit for FY2019, given that the date has retrogressed from 01JUL09 in the July 2019 VB to 01JAN06 in the August 2019 VB.

I am really suspicious about the retrogression of the ROW to exact same date. I have moved this from predictions to Bills/Politics discussion as I will be referring to those here.

With the passing of HR 1044 and discussion of S386 scheduled, this bulletin provided by USCIS, may provide fodder to the detractors of the bill that it is going to be an India specific problem.

Regarding the EB3 I, the data we have from 2009/2010 clearly indicates very low PERM numbers compared to preceding and subsequent years. It appears that there would a hard stop at around 2803/4 for EB3 India this year.

[Spectator]

I am really suspicious about the retrogression of the ROW to exact same date. I have moved this from predictions to Bills/Politics discussion as I will be referring to those here.

With the passing of HR 1044 and discussion of S386 scheduled, this bulletin provided by USCIS, may provide fodder to the detractors of the bill that it is going to be an India specific problem.

Regarding the EB3 I, the data we have from 2009/2010 clearly indicates very low PERM numbers compared to preceding and subsequent years. It appears that there would a hard stop at around 2803/4 for EB3 India this year.

Aceman,

This really belongs in Calculations/Predictions. The message thread will get lost otherwise.

Just mentioning the Bills isn't cause enough to move it. For what it's worth, I think you've always been very good at posting in appropriate locations.

Now, to the question.

It's not ROW retrogressing to the same date. In fact it's the opposite.

No Country shown separately due to the 7% limit can have a Cut Off Date later than that for ROW.

So it's more the case that EB2-C and EB3-C could not move further forward than the date set for ROW, rather than ROW was retrogressed back to the EB2 and EB3 China dates.

Therefore the dates will be the same.

[canada]

Our HR team forwarded these wordings from the immigration firm:
According to the State Department’s August Visa Bulletin, significant retrogression will occur for most employment-based categories next month, while EB-2 India will advance ahead of EB-3 India for the first time in many months.

I initially was excited that EB2I may cross 01JUL09. After careful thought it becomes clear that is just normal info published with a PR spin. Right now EB3I is retrogressed to 01JAN06 and EB2I is at 02MAY09. So even a few days will make the law firms "advice to their clients" correct.

Now that we are on firm ground, is it possible for EB2I to cross 01JUL09 in the September bulletin?

What I don’t understand is the PI shows EB3 India has very few cases and it should have crossed April 2010 for FAD but it retrogressed to 2006?

May and June 2009 has 2800 cases - so idliman - I don’t see it jumping to July 1st. No EB2 ROW horizontal spillover anyway and USCIS is not releasing the PI numbers. So we are in the dark and at the mercy of these visa bulletins

[Spectator]

What I don’t understand is the PI shows EB3 India has very few cases and it should have crossed April 2010 for FAD but it retrogressed to 2006?

I'm not sure I entirely understand the comment.

By the time EB3-I passed July 2007 PD, all new AOS applications needed an interview. The USCIS Pending Inventory would never have shown more than a handful - most new EB3-I cases were at either NBC or a Field Office and completely invisible to us.

We've never known (even at the most basic level) how many EB3-I cases were generated when the Filing Date of 01APR10 for EB3-I was allowed in January 2019.

Added to that, there have been far more Consular approvals of EB3-I cases than ever before and these would not have shown on a USCIS Inventory anyway.

EB3-I Consular approvals for FY2019

Oct ----- 122
Nov ----- 150
Dec ----- 105
Jan ----- 226
Feb ----- 200
Mar ----- 208
Apr ----- 179
May ----- 175
Jun ----- ???
Jul ----- ???
Aug ----- ???
Sep ----- ???

Total - 1,365

That's around 2/3 of the calculated 2,018 visas that might have been issued to EB3-I, at 9% per month, until the end of May.

That compares to 747 for the whole of FY2018 (458 to the end of May) and 150 - 200 in previous full FYs.

[canada]

I'm not sure I entirely understand the comment.

By the time EB3-I passed July 2007 PD, all new AOS applications needed an interview. The USCIS Pending Inventory would never have shown more than a handful - most new EB3-I cases were at either NBC or a Field Office and completely invisible to us.

We've never known (even at the most basic level) how many EB3-I cases were generated when the Filing Date of 01APR10 for EB3-I was allowed in January 2019.

Added to that, there have been far more Consular approvals of EB3-I cases than ever before and these would not have shown on a USCIS Inventory anyway.

EB3-I Consular approvals for FY2019

Oct ----- 122
Nov ----- 150
Dec ----- 105
Jan ----- 226
Feb ----- 200
Mar ----- 208
Apr ----- 179
May ----- 175
Jun ----- ???
Jul ----- ???
Aug ----- ???
Sep ----- ???

Total - 1,365

That's around 2/3 of the calculated 2,018 visas that might have been issued to EB3-I, at 9% per month, until the end of May.

That compares to 747 for the whole of FY2018 (458 to the end of May) and 150 - 200 in previous full FYs.



Spectator- thanks for this information. So consular approvals are not included in the PI numbers? Is that one of the reasons the numbers are moving slow-in EB3 India? What would be the consular approvals for EB2 India?

[Spectator]

Spectator- thanks for this information. So consular approvals are not included in the PI numbers? Is that one of the reasons the numbers are moving slow-in EB3 India? What would be the consular approvals for EB2 India?

The PI numbers only show AOS cases (I-485 which USCIS process). Consular cases are processed by DOS at the consulates, where they issue an Immigrant visa.

Consular approvals for EB2-I to the end of May are a mere 35 cases. Historically, the number is less than a 75 - 150 per FY, with recent years being on the lower side.

[canada]

The PI numbers only show AOS cases (I-485 which USCIS process). Consular cases are processed by DOS at the consulates, where they issue an Immigrant visa.

Consular approvals for EB2-I to the end of May are a mere 35 cases. Historically, the number is less than a 75 - 150 per FY, with recent years being on the lower side.


So EB3 India is where the candidates might have left the country and now noticing their dates being current are getting their cases processed outside and also finding an employer to return?

[Spectator]

So EB3 India is where the candidates might have left the country and now noticing their dates being current are getting their cases processed outside and also finding an employer to return?

That's how it seems.

Either they've still got the original job offer from when they chose Consular Processing, or, they've had another I-140 approved for a different employer and retained the earlier priority date.

EB2-I crossed July 2007 in late 2011. EB3-I only did so in April 2018. That's a long time for people to hang on in the USA without an I-485 filed. Maybe it explains why there is such an increase in Consular approvals for EB3-I.

I'm a little surprised at the numbers though, given they still need a provable job offer after all this time and still want to come to the USA.

The breakdown is quite interesting.

E31 Skilled worker --------------------------- 377
E32 Professional holding baccalaureate degree -- 7
E34 Spouse of E31 or E32 --------------------- 393
E35 Child of E31 or E32 ---------------------- 582
EW3 Other worker (subgroup numerical limit) ---- 2
EW4 Spouse of EW3 ------------------------------ 2
EW5 Child of EW3 ------------------------------- 2

Total -------------------------------------- 1,365


Lots of Skilled Workers, not many Professional. That may just be quite clever immigration lawyers, since it obviates any problems with degree equivalency, but would make it harder to get the initial PERM approval. Impossible to say.

The number of Dependents @ 2.5 per primary (for non Other Workers) is also quite high, but again, not very surprising given the amount of time that has elapsed.

[canada]

That's how it seems.

Either they've still got the original job offer from when they chose Consular Processing, or, they've had another I-140 approved for a different employer and retained the earlier priority date.

EB2-I crossed July 2007 in late 2011. EB3-I only did so in April 2018. That's a long time for people to hang on in the USA without an I-485 filed. Maybe it explains why there is such an increase in Consular approvals for EB3-I.

I'm a little surprised at the numbers though, given they still need a provable job offer after all this time and still want to come to the USA.


GC petition is for a future job. In reality that’s not how it works mostly for Indians -unless you are a nurse from Philippines. My guess is some of these cases approach shady companies to get their I-485 processed, because how long does an employer want to hang on for someone in EB3 after they left the country

[Spectator]

GC petition is for a future job. In reality that’s not how it works mostly for Indians -unless you are a nurse from Philippines. My guess is some of these cases approach shady companies to get their I-485 processed, because how long does an employer want to hang on for someone in EB3 after they left the country

Sorry to be picky, but an I-485 has nothing to do with Consular Processing.

Form I-485 is used by those wishing to adjust status within the United States.

Consular applicants apply for an Immigrant visa, which is stamped in their passport and used to enter the USA as a LPR.

Realizing the difference will also help to understand what the reports that USCIS and DOS produce contain and also (just as importantly) what they do not.

[gs1968]

That's how it seems.

Either they've still got the original job offer from when they chose Consular Processing, or, they've had another I-140 approved for a different employer and retained the earlier priority date.

EB2-I crossed July 2007 in late 2011. EB3-I only did so in April 2018. That's a long time for people to hang on in the USA without an I-485 filed. Maybe it explains why there is such an increase in Consular approvals for EB3-I.

I'm a little surprised at the numbers though, given they still need a provable job offer after all this time and still want to come to the USA.

The breakdown is quite interesting.

E31 Skilled worker --------------------------- 377
E32 Professional holding baccalaureate degree -- 7
E34 Spouse of E31 or E32 --------------------- 393
E35 Child of E31 or E32 ---------------------- 582
EW3 Other worker (subgroup numerical limit) ---- 2
EW4 Spouse of EW3 ------------------------------ 2
EW5 Child of EW3 ------------------------------- 2

Total -------------------------------------- 1,365


Lots of Skilled Workers, not many Professional. That may just be quite clever immigration lawyers, since it obviates any problems with degree equivalency, but would make it harder to get the initial PERM approval. Impossible to say.

The number of Dependents @ 2.5 per primary (for non Other Workers) is also quite high, but again, not very surprising given the amount of time that has elapsed.

That was at the height of the IT boom and H-1bs were much easier to get. A lot of professionals were hired on familial relationship by the first wave of immigrants and it is easier to maintain the petition if this is the case

[canada]

I should have worded it as consular processing rather than I485

[canada]

That was at the height of the IT boom and H-1bs were much easier to get. A lot of professionals were hired on familial relationship by the first wave of immigrants and it is easier to maintain the petition if this is the case

That is unfair to the American workers as the employer might be intentionally showing that he couldn’t find a suitable American citizen in the last 6-8 years for a Bachelor degree work.

[qesehmk]

That is unfair to the American workers as the employer might be intentionally showing that he couldn’t find a suitable American citizen in the last 6-8 years for a Bachelor degree work.
Stockholm syndrome? My 2 cents on the topic is that american workers are more threatened by low wage growth, age discrimination, and general lack of legal protections than H1Bs stealing their jobs. American workers have benefited immensely due to free movement of capital. They are much less threatened by semi-free movement of labor i.e. H1B.

[vedu]

Spectator,

I want to ask you a simple question. Do you anticipate any spillover from the family category to Employment category in October?

[jimmys]

I'm not sure I entirely understand the comment.

By the time EB3-I passed July 2007 PD, all new AOS applications needed an interview. The USCIS Pending Inventory would never have shown more than a handful - most new EB3-I cases were at either NBC or a Field Office and completely invisible to us.

We've never known (even at the most basic level) how many EB3-I cases were generated when the Filing Date of 01APR10 for EB3-I was allowed in January 2019.

Added to that, there have been far more Consular approvals of EB3-I cases than ever before and these would not have shown on a USCIS Inventory anyway.

EB3-I Consular approvals for FY2019

Oct ----- 122
Nov ----- 150
Dec ----- 105
Jan ----- 226
Feb ----- 200
Mar ----- 208
Apr ----- 179
May ----- 175
Jun ----- ???
Jul ----- ???
Aug ----- ???
Sep ----- ???

Total - 1,365

That's around 2/3 of the calculated 2,018 visas that might have been issued to EB3-I, at 9% per month, until the end of May.

That compares to 747 for the whole of FY2018 (458 to the end of May) and 150 - 200 in previous full FYs.

Thanks for providing these numbers. Do you think the Oct'19 dates will get past July,09 for EB3-I?

[Spectator]

Spectator,

I want to ask you a simple question. Do you anticipate any spillover from the family category to Employment category in October?

It is a wonderfully simple question, but it really doesn't have such a simple answer.

It is true that Consular approvals for FB categories are lower so far in FY2019 as compared to FY2018. To the end of May, there are 18,466 fewer than at the same point last year. This represents a 13% drop. CP represented 94.44% of total FB approvals in FY2018.

On the other hand, CO is aggressively moving the Cut Off Dates for FB categories to stimulate demand. It remains to be seen whether that will be sufficient to use up all the FB allocation by the end of the FY.

The other thing to note is that it might not necessarily create that many more numbers for EB2-I and EB3-I.

The total sum of spare FB visas would first be prorated across the 5 EB categories.

Then the 7% limits apply against the increased category total.

Using an arbitrary 10,000 spare visas from FB:


FB Spillover - EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ----- EB5 ----- Total
Prorated ---- 28.6% --- 28.6% --- 28.6% ---- 7.1% ---- 7.1% --- 100.0%
10,000 ----- 2,860 --- 2,860 --- 2,860 ----- 710 ----- 710 --- 10,000
7% ----------- 200 ----- 200 ----- 200 ------ 50 ------ 50 ------ 700


In EB1, EB2 and EB3 the overall allocation would increase from 40,040 to 42,900.

The 42,900 would initially be distributed as

Group ---------- Total -- Increase
China ---------- 3,003 ------- 200
India ---------- 3,003 ------- 200
Mexico --------- 3,003 ------- 200
Philippines ---- 3,003 ------- 200
ROW ----------- 30,888 ----- 2,060

Total --------- 42,900 ----- 2,860


It's not initially increasing the numbers available to India by very much.

Given the retrogression status of the categories, I don't think EB4 and EB5 wouldn't give any numbers to EB1 and EB1 wouldn't give any numbers to EB2 however many FB visas they might get. India and China are sufficiently retrogressed to use any that might become available from EB1-ROW, who have retrogression of their own.

It would need a fairly large number of FB spillover numbers for EB2-ROW demand to be satisfied (given they will have been retrogressed for 2 months in FY2019 and would have a potential 14 months demand in FY2020) so that any of their extra numbers could fall across to EB2-I.

I hope that helps in analyzing the situation for yourself.

[vedu]

It is a wonderfully simple question, but it really doesn't have such a simple answer.

It is true that Consular approvals for FB categories are lower so far in FY2019 as compared to FY2018. To the end of May, there are 18,466 fewer than at the same point last year. This represents a 13% drop. CP represented 94.44% of total FB approvals in FY2018.

On the other hand, CO is aggressively moving the Cut Off Dates for FB categories to stimulate demand. It remains to be seen whether that will be sufficient to use up all the FB allocation by the end of the FY.

The other thing to note is that it might not necessarily create that many more numbers for EB2-I and EB3-I.

The total sum of spare FB visas would first be prorated across the 5 EB categories.

Then the 7% limits apply against the increased category total.

Using an arbitrary 10,000 spare visas from FB:


FB Spillover - EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ----- EB5 ----- Total
Prorated ---- 28.6% --- 28.6% --- 28.6% ---- 7.1% ---- 7.1% --- 100.0%
10,000 ----- 2,860 --- 2,860 --- 2,860 ----- 710 ----- 710 --- 10,000
7% ----------- 200 ----- 200 ----- 200 ------ 50 ------ 50 ------ 700


In EB1, EB2 and EB3 the overall allocation would increase from 40,040 to 42,900.

The 42,900 would initially be distributed as

Group ---------- Total -- Increase
China ---------- 3,003 ------- 200
India ---------- 3,003 ------- 200
Mexico --------- 3,003 ------- 200
Philippines ---- 3,003 ------- 200
ROW ----------- 30,888 ----- 2,060

Total --------- 42,900 ----- 2,860


It's not initially increasing the numbers available to India by very much.

Given the retrogression status of the categories, I don't think EB4 and EB5 wouldn't give any numbers to EB1 and EB1 wouldn't give any numbers to EB2 however many FB visas they might get. India and China are sufficiently retrogressed to use any that might become available from EB1-ROW, who have retrogression of their own.

It would need a fairly large number of FB spillover numbers for EB2-ROW demand to be satisfied (given they will have been retrogressed for 2 months in FY2019 and would have a potential 14 months demand in FY2020) so that any of their extra numbers could fall across to EB2-I.

I hope that helps in analyzing the situation for yourself.

Spec,

I knew you would come up with such a pessimistic response as usual, but that really helps to set the expectations straight. At this time, we will take anything that comes our way...even getting 200 applicants cleared (3-4 days of movement) is golden!:) I say if we get combined (EB1I+ EB2I + EB3I) = 600 numbers and since EB2I has the most of the inventory, people in this category will find ways to get a big share of that 600 number by upgrading, down porting, etc. We just got a taste of it when EB3I started to get ahead of EB2I.

Thank you for your detailed response and dashing any hopes!

[Spectator]

Spec,

I knew you would come up with such a pessimistic response as usual, but that really helps to set the expectations straight. At this time, we will take anything that comes our way...even getting 200 applicants cleared (3-4 days of movement) is golden!:) I say if we get combined (EB1I+ EB2I + EB3I) = 600 numbers and since EB2I has the most of the inventory, people in this category will find ways to get a big share of that 600 number by upgrading, down porting, etc. We just got a taste of it when EB3I started to get ahead of EB2I.

Thank you for your detailed response and dashing any hopes!

Sorry it sounded pessimistic, but I wanted people to understand how the SO is handled and that large sounding overall numbers might not translate into corresponding movement for the EB-I categories.

If the number could exceed 20k, then that could translate into good news. It's impossible to know how those unknown 4 months of figures will change the picture that creates the uncertainty.

As you say, something is better than nothing - let's hope for more, rather than less.

[gs1968]

I am sure Spec and other number crunchers will weigh in on this but a review of the statistical year books from FY2015 released by the DHS does not seem to suggest that unused numbers from FB category are being applied to the EB numbers in the following FY
For example in FY 2015 the FB visas issued was 213910 giving unused numbers of 12090 to be applied to EB category in FY 2016. But the EB numbers in FY 2016 were only 137893. What is interesting is that FB visas in FY 2016 were 238087. It is not clear where the extra numbers for FB category came from as the EB numbers in 2015 were 144047 and there was no numbers to give to FB. It almost seems like FB gained in 2016 what it lost in 2015.
However in 2017 the shortfall of 2107 visas from EB 2016 may have been applied to the FB category as they received 232238 visas
I am probably misinterpreting the statute but FB shortfalls are not being applied to EB in the following years while EB shortfalls may be going the other way to FB categories.

The limiting factor to how many EB Green cards can be issued irrespective of how many are available may be the ability of the USCIS to process applications although there have been previous years where as many as 150000 visas have been issued. However with the new interview requirements I am not sure if this is still possible. Most of the FB visas are processed by the NVC and DOS and may be faster and more efficient

[Spectator]

I am sure Spec and other number crunchers will weigh in on this but a review of the statistical year books from FY2015 released by the DHS does not seem to suggest that unused numbers from FB category are being applied to the EB numbers in the following FY
For example in FY 2015 the FB visas issued was 213910 giving unused numbers of 12090 to be applied to EB category in FY 2016. But the EB numbers in FY 2016 were only 137893. What is interesting is that FB visas in FY 2016 were 238087. It is not clear where the extra numbers for FB category came from as the EB numbers in 2015 were 144047 and there was no numbers to give to FB. It almost seems like FB gained in 2016 what it lost in 2015.
However in 2017 the shortfall of 2107 visas from EB 2016 may have been applied to the FB category as they received 232238 visas
I am probably misinterpreting the statute but FB shortfalls are not being applied to EB in the following years while EB shortfalls may be going the other way to FB categories.

The limiting factor to how many EB Green cards can be issued irrespective of how many are available may be the ability of the USCIS to process applications although there have been previous years where as many as 150000 visas have been issued. However with the new interview requirements I am not sure if this is still possible. Most of the FB visas are processed by the NVC and DOS and may be faster and more efficient

According to the official DOS report, Family Based Categories received 225,671 visas in FY2015 out of the 226,000 allocation. https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2015AnnualReport/FY15AnnualReport-TableV-Part1.pdf

In FY2015, Employment Based Categories received 143,952 visas https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2015AnnualReport/FY15AnnualReport-TableV-Part3.pdf against an allocation of 144,796 https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-september-2015.html Section D.

In FY2016, Employment Based categories had an allocation of 140,338. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-september-2016.html Section D. This is in line with FB usage the previous FY.

In FY2016 FB categories used 230,691 according to the official DOS Report https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2016AnnualReport/FY16AnnualReport-TableV-Part1.pdf

This is indeed more than the allocation of 226,000 for FB in FY2016. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2016/visa-bulletin-for-september-2016.html Section D.

It's impossible for FB to benefit from any unused EB visas due to the complex formula used. The number of Immediate Relatives approvals means that no number of unused EB visas would increase the 226k minimum number.

PS The USCIS Yearbooks are notoriously full of odd figures and never seem to match the official DOS Visa Statistics. Use the DOS ones (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics.html) wherever possible. They are the official record, since DOS controls visa issuance.

[gs1968]

To spec
Is it possible that some of the FB visas may have been adjustment of status through the I-485 process if they are already present in the USA in some other status? In that case the USCIS would adjudicate the application

[Spectator]

To spec
Is it possible that some of the FB visas may have been adjustment of status through the I-485 process if they are already present in the USA in some other status? In that case the USCIS would adjudicate the application

Both the DOS and USCIS figures give that breakdown either directly or easily calculable.

For FB approvals in FY2015 the USCIS Yearbook shows it directly in table 7.

Adjustments of Status --- 16,783
New Arrivals ----------- 197,127

Total ------------------ 213,910

In the DOS Visa Statistics, Table V shows Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status while Table VI just shows Immigrant Visas Issued. The difference is therefore Adjustment of Status approvals.

Adjustments of Status --- 16,831
Immigrant Visas -------- 208,840

Total ------------------ 225,671

[vyruss]

Spec:

Is an FB SO possible in the near future? If so, does it apply equally across all categories or only to the most retrogressed categories?

Thanks

[Spectator]

Spec:

Is an FB SO possible in the near future? If so, does it apply equally across all categories or only to the most retrogressed categories?

Thanks

Please read post #5199 (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=62399&viewfull=1#post62399).

[vyruss]

Thanks, Spec. Appreciate the breakdown and the logic of FB SO.

[kb2013]

Has anyone who downgraded from eb2 to eb3, in late Jan, got their I140 approved? Mine has been pending since Jan 30th. Should have been a straightforward case. Not sure why it should take so long for USCIS to process.

[vyruss]

There are a few instances where people even got greened after a downgrade. Those people had a PD of June '09. See other immigration forums for such cases. Looks like your Pd is from 2010. Was your I-140 in premium? Are you now applying in EB3 to get an EAD?

[kb2013]

There are a few instances where people even got greened after a downgrade. Those people had a PD of June '09. See other immigration forums for such cases. Looks like your Pd is from 2010. Was your I-140 in premium? Are you now applying in EB3 to get an EAD?

Yes PD is Jan 2010. Since this was eb2 to eb3 downgrade and did not include original PERM, they did not file in premium. Tried to upgrade to premium in March. It was not accepted, though the previous I-140 was filed in the same service center. Lost half a grand there in legal fees and related expenses.

[ferric]

Has anyone who downgraded from eb2 to eb3, in late Jan, got their I140 approved? Mine has been pending since Jan 30th. Should have been a straightforward case. Not sure why it should take so long for USCIS to process.

Which service center? A lot of Nebraska regular filing downgrades have already been approved on trackitt. Texas is slower...

[vyruss]

Yes PD is Jan 2010. Since this was eb2 to eb3 downgrade and did not include original PERM, they did not file in premium. Tried to upgrade to premium in March. It was not accepted, though the previous I-140 was filed in the same service center. Lost half a grand there in legal fees and related expenses.

6 months timeline is being quoted for i-140 processing. So you may be in that time frame. Check the processing times for your service center.

[kb2013]

Mine is in TSC. As per the site it is supposed to be faster than NSC and shows 4 to 6 months: https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/
Will need to raise a service request if it is not approved by month end.

[ferric]

Mine is in TSC. As per the site it is supposed to be faster than NSC and shows 4 to 6 months: https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/
Will need to raise a service request if it is not approved by month end.

Reach out to your congressman too, I think that’s what pushed mine forward

[maverickwild]

Has anyone who downgraded from eb2 to eb3, in late Jan, got their I140 approved? Mine has been pending since Jan 30th. Should have been a straightforward case. Not sure why it should take so long for USCIS to process.

I did downgrade in Jan end , PD is March 2010 , 140 was approved last month.( approx 4.5 months). It was Nebraska , Texas May be slower , I won’t worry too much about it , you might be approved in a week or two .

[kb2013]

I did downgrade in Jan end , PD is March 2010 , 140 was approved last month.( approx 4.5 months). It was Nebraska , Texas May be slower , I won’t worry too much about it , you might be approved in a week or two .

Thanks for the info.

[kb2013]

Reach out to your congressman too, I think that’s what pushed mine forward
Sure. Will follow up once it crosses the processing window.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Check-in with Charlie 7/18:

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/

[Spectator]

Check-in with Charlie 7/18:

https://www.shusterman.com/visa-bulletin-predictions/
One of the most complete and interesting Check-in's ever published.

I encourage everyone to read it.

The low lights are:

a) The August VB FAD is already applied for all of EB3 and EB3 Other Workers.

b) EB1-India has now been made "Unavailable" for the remainder of FY2019.

c) Immediate cut-off in visa usage could very well occur in the EB-1 and EB-2 categories at any time before the end of the fiscal year if demand continues to remain high.

d) EB5-India and EB5-Vietnam will not return to Current in October. Both should expect to have a FAD imposed for the foreseeable future.

There is an awful lot of good info in the article, so once again, I encourage people to read it in full.

[lville]

One of the most complete and interesting Check-in's ever published.

I encourage everyone to read it.

The low lights are:

a) The August VB FAD is already applied for all of EB3 and EB3 Other Workers.

b) EB1-India has now been made "Unavailable" for the remainder of FY2019.

c) Immediate cut-off in visa usage could very well occur in the EB-1 and EB-2 categories at any time before the end of the fiscal year if demand continues to remain high.

d) EB5-India and EB5-Vietnam will not return to Current in October. Both should expect to have a FAD imposed for the foreseeable future.

There is an awful lot of good info in the article, so once again, I encourage people to read it in full.

Regarding EB2-I, it does not say anything in particular about stalling, going back or forward movement. All it talks about is other categories, little bit about EB3-I but nothing about EB2-I. Am i missing something ?

[vyruss]

Regarding EB2-I, it does not say anything in particular about stalling, going back or forward movement. All it talks about is other categories, little bit about EB3-I but nothing about EB2-I. Am i missing something ?

You should interpret it as some movement in EB2-I next month.

[lville]

You should interpret it as some movement in EB2-I next month.

Ahh. Gotcha. What is the likelihood or when can I expect Eb2-I to cross May 22, 2009 ? Considering there are close to 1500 in May 2009(not including dependents), does that it mean it will take more than 1 year to cross May 2009 ?

[vyruss]

There will be at least 3 days movement per month is what I guess. That is based on extremely simplistic assumptions; 20 days of filing in May 2009 (this excludes weekend and memorial day) and spread the 1500 demand evenly over 20 days or 75 per day; assuming you get 234 GC allotment for EB2I per month; you end up with a 3 day movement per month. Now, this is extremely simple; I do not have any more insights than this; maybe people like Q and Spec can shed some more light on this. Given these assumptions, you are looking at 5 months or February 2020 to be current.

[canada]

There will be at least 3 days movement per month is what I guess. That is based on extremely simplistic assumptions; 20 days of filing in May 2009 (this excludes weekend and memorial day) and spread the 1500 demand evenly over 20 days or 75 per day; assuming you get 234 GC allotment for EB2I per month; you end up with a 3 day movement per month. Now, this is extremely simple; I do not have any more insights than this; maybe people like Q and Spec can shed some more light on this. Given these assumptions, you are looking at 5 months or February 2020 to be current.


PI for May 2009 and June are 1400,1400. Can it be assumed safely that EB2I will move to July 1st 2009 by October 2020 and cross September 2009 by October 2021? July has 900, August has 800 and September has 1000

[siriyal75]

Hi Gurus,
One clarification I need regarding visa spill over or allocation to Philippines (EB3).
From USCIS statistics on Green cards issued both in US and consulates, Philippines getting more than 2800 visa per year, if spill over is happed for excess visas, does not EB3 India get more visas than Philippines, as India is more backlogged than other countries.
Not sure , what I am missing?.
Here is Green cards issued under EB3 for Philippines.

FY'16 ~ 11,500
FY'17 ~ 10,000
FY'18 ~ 12,000

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics.html

[Spectator]

Hi Gurus,
One clarification I need regarding visa spill over or allocation to Philippines (EB3).
From USCIS statistics on Green cards issued both in US and consulates, Philippines getting more than 2800 visa per year, if spill over is happed for excess visas, does not EB3 India get more visas than Philippines, as India is more backlogged than other countries.
Not sure , what I am missing?.
Here is Green cards issued under EB3 for Philippines.

FY'16 ~ 11,500
FY'17 ~ 10,000
FY'18 ~ 12,000

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics.html

I'm not entirely sure where in the tables you are getting your figures, but the Correct ones are in Table V.

So, for FY2018, they would come from this Table (https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV-Part2.pdf) which shows a total of 7,059 EB3 Visas and AOS approved for Philippines. The number is made up of 6,588 EB3 plus 471 EB3 Other Workers.

This subject has been covered many times, but I will do so once again.

The 7% limit is calculated against the entire number of EB & FB allocations. This mentioned in every VB.

For the base allocations of 226,000 for FB and 140,000 for EB, 7% of 366,000 is 25,620.

As this figure is initially prorated across the different Categories, it's easy to think that the limit for EB3 would be 40,040 * 7% = 2,803.

That's not entirely correct, because under use in other Categories can allow another Category to use visas up to the overall 7% limit.

Let's simplify it to start with and just consider EB. For the minimum 140,000 allocation, 7% would be 9,800.

Here's what it would look like for Philippines for FY2016 to FY2018.

Philippines -- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total EB --- Limit EB
FY2016 ------- 173 -- 1,985 -- 6,579 ---- 164 ----- 16 ------- 8,917 ------ 9,824
FY2017 ------- 136 -- 1,785 -- 6,675 ---- 228 ------ 0 ------- 8,824 ------ 9,800
FY2018 ------- 176 -- 1,532 -- 7,059 ---- 200 ----- 18 ------- 8,985 ------ 9,820

As you can see, Philippines did not exceed 7% of the visas available based just on EB.

Here's what it looks like for EB and FB.

Philippines -- Total EB ---- Total FB ---- Total EB/FB ---- Limit
FY2016 ---------- 8,917 ------ 10,229 --------- 19,146 --- 25,644
FY2017 ---------- 8,824 ------ 10,816 --------- 19,640 --- 25,620
FY2018 ---------- 8,985 ------ 12,228 --------- 21,213 --- 25,640

FB number adjusted to exclude F2A exempt which do not count towards the 7% limit.


The reason it's important to undertand that the 7% limit is calculated against FB & EB allocations is that South Korea habitually uses more than 7% in EB. They can do so because they use very few in FB Categories.

[siriyal75]

Hi Spec,

Thank you for the clarification, as you are doing for many years.
Yes, this has been discussed many times, but still I missed the bigger picture, by focussing on India :).
I may be wrong, I assumed there two links on the page, first one is for AoS, the second one , I thought Consular Processing.
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV-Part2.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableVI-PartII.pdf

Aos -> FY2018 ------- 176 -- 1,532 -- 7,059 ---- 200 ----- 18 ------- 8,985 ------ 9,820
CP -> FY2018 ------- 12 -- 371 -- 4567 ----0 ----- 0 ------- 4,950 ------

Total -> 8985+4950 = 13,935.

Additional questions.

With July bulletin Philippines, EB3-P became current, though it retrogressed in August.
Can we assume, bulk of EB3 backlog for Philippines is cleared, Can EB3-I get additional visas next FY'20, if any spill over available.
Is there any chance, EB spill over visas allocated to FB category, we have seen FB visas spill over to EB in 2013/14, but not sure about the reverse.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

Thank you for the clarification, as you are doing for many years.
Yes, this has been discussed many times, but still I missed the bigger picture, by focussing on India :).
I may be wrong, I assumed there two links on the page, first one is for AoS, the second one , I thought Consular Processing.
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableV-Part2.pdf
https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableVI-PartII.pdf

Aos -> FY2018 ------- 176 -- 1,532 -- 7,059 ---- 200 ----- 18 ------- 8,985 ------ 9,820
CP -> FY2018 ------- 12 -- 371 -- 4567 ----0 ----- 0 ------- 4,950 ------

Total -> 8985+4950 = 13,935.

Additional questions.

With July bulletin Philippines, EB3-P became current, though it retrogressed in August.
Can we assume, bulk of EB3 backlog for Philippines is cleared, Can EB3-I get additional visas next FY'20, if any spill over available.
Is there any chance, EB spill over visas allocated to FB category, we have seen FB visas spill over to EB in 2013/14, but not sure about the reverse.

Table V is titled

Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status

where "Visas Issued" refers to Consular Processing. With CP, the actual visa is issued and stamped in the applicants passport.

and "Adjustment of Status" refers to those adjusting status within the USA.


Table VI is titled

Preference Visas Issued

so it is only showing the number of CP cases approved.

If you add the two tables together, then it's double counting the CP approvals and you would get (for FY2018)

FB - 224,090 + 211,641 = 435,731 (versus an allocation of 226,000)
EB - 139,483 + 27,345 = 166,828 (versus an allocation of 140,292)

To prove the point further,

Table IV shows Immigrant Visas issued at the individual Consulates - the figure is 533,557.

Table III breaks those down into broad classes such as EB, FB etc. - the total figure is 533,557 of which EB accounts for 27,345.

Table VI has a total of 27,345 for EB Categories.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

It is a wonderfully simple question, but it really doesn't have such a simple answer.

It is true that Consular approvals for FB categories are lower so far in FY2019 as compared to FY2018. To the end of May, there are 18,466 fewer than at the same point last year. This represents a 13% drop. CP represented 94.44% of total FB approvals in FY2018.

On the other hand, CO is aggressively moving the Cut Off Dates for FB categories to stimulate demand. It remains to be seen whether that will be sufficient to use up all the FB allocation by the end of the FY.


Do you think F2A will continue to be current for the next 6 - 12 months? If it was a fluke, then those who filed next month will be left hanging again if the dates retrogress next month or next few months. Again, aggressively moving the dates just for Aug and Sept won't do anything to consume current FY numbers right? CP takes at least 6 months of processing before the applicants get their GC.

[Spectator]

Do you think F2A will continue to be current for the next 6 - 12 months? If it was a fluke, then those who filed next month will be left hanging again if the dates retrogress next month or next few months.
CO has already indicated that F2A is unlikely to remain Current for very long.


Family-Based Preference Categories

Similar to last month, the August F-2A Final Action Date will remain current across categories, and the Dates for Filing for F-2A applications has been advanced. Charlie expects that, absent an unanticipated surge in demand, the F-2A Final Action Date will continue to remain current across categories through September 2019. Nonetheless, one should not expect this category to remain current for long. When the expected surge in demand materializes, it will prompt the imposition of a Final Action Date. This date will likely be sometime in 2017 or 2018.

[siriyal75]

Table V is titled

Immigrant Visas Issued and Adjustments of Status

where "Visas Issued" refers to Consular Processing. With CP, the actual visa is issued and stamped in the applicants passport.

and "Adjustment of Status" refers to those adjusting status within the USA.


Table VI is titled

Preference Visas Issued

so it is only showing the number of CP cases approved.

If you add the two tables together, then it's double counting the CP approvals and you would get (for FY2018)

FB - 224,090 + 211,641 = 435,731 (versus an allocation of 226,000)
EB - 139,483 + 27,345 = 166,828 (versus an allocation of 140,292)

To prove the point further,

Table IV shows Immigrant Visas issued at the individual Consulates - the figure is 533,557.

Table III breaks those down into broad classes such as EB, FB etc. - the total figure is 533,557 of which EB accounts for 27,345.

Table VI has a total of 27,345 for EB Categories.


Thank you Q, now I am clear. Appreciate your time.

I am just analyzing to see, any movement in EB3-I , as EB3-P backlog is cleared, there can be additional applications in USCIS queue, but as they did it current in July, hope fully it will be current from Oct.
may get some additional visas next year.
My PD is 06/25/2010 (EB2), it has been many years, after we saw 2012 advance, every year, it is frustratingly slowing down, trying to find any hope next year, later to file at least I-485.
As EB1-I taking almost all spill over in EB1, there is no hope for EB2 spill over, even horizontal spill over is not happening, only hope is EB3 with any surprise with EB3-P/RoW spill over.

[qesehmk]

That's Spec. Not me!

Thank you Q, now I am clear. Appreciate your time.

[siriyal75]

Thanks for the correction Q, I meant to Spec.:)

[Spectator]

DOS have released the latest CP figures for June 2019.

Cumulatively, here is the situation for Oct-June (9 months of FY2019).

Country --------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB4 ---- EB5 --- Total
China ----------- 494 ---- 138 ---- 172 ------ 7 -- 3,041 --- 3,852
India ----------- 143 ----- 44 -- 1,520 ----- 97 ---- 389 --- 2,193
Mexico ----------- 18 ----- 26 ---- 496 ----- 44 ----- 49 ----- 633
Philippines ------- 1 ---- 162 -- 3,432 ----- 55 ----- 11 --- 3,661
ROW ----------- 1,156 -- 2,496 -- 5,651 -- 1,394 -- 2,522 -- 13,219

Grand Total --- 1,812 -- 2,866 - 11,271 -- 1,597 -- 6,012 -- 23,558

Oct-Jun FY2018 was 23,023.
Full FY2018 was 27,345.


Country --------- FB1 --- FB2A --- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 --- Total
China ----------- 319 -- 2,225 ---- 593 -- 1,215 -- 4,117 --- 8,469
India ----------- 164 ---- 685 ----- 73 -- 3,029 -- 5,517 --- 9,468
Mexico ---------- 958 - 12,423 ---- 563 ---- 823 -- 2,050 -- 16,817
Philippines --- 1,206 -- 2,660 -- 3,485 ---- 890 -- 2,042 -- 10,283
ROW ---------- 13,469 - 32,160 - 10,028 - 11,536 - 25,822 -- 93,015

Grand Total -- 16,116 - 50,153 - 14,742 - 17,493 - 39,548 - 138,052

Oct-Jun FY2018 was 160,029
Full FY2018 was 211,641.


I know people are interested as to whether there might be spillover of FB visas to Employment Based in FY2020.

Currently, FY2019 has 21,977 less CP approvals for FB than there were in FY2018 at the same point in time.

If the average use continues for the rest of FY2019, then SO would be in the region of 27.5k.
If the average use continues at the high end of use in FY2018 (c. 19k/month), then SO would be in the region of 16.5k.

Both cases assume that AOS approvals for FB are the same in FY2018 and FY2019.

The most plausible scenario is a figure between the two cases.

CO has advanced Cut Off Dates for FB, so we might expect some increase in approvals for the remainder of the FY.
On the other hand, recent months have only seen <15K FB approvals per month, so a huge increase in the remaining time might be quite difficult to achieve.

Although I have explained the rationale for the above figures, the above is very speculative, so treat it as such. Normally, I would not speculate. I give the figures only because I realize it is of great interest to everyone.

Personally, I think some SO is now inevitable, but the amount will only become clear as DOS releases the remaining 3 months data.

[sandykolu]

Thanks Spec. Assuming that any spillover is evenly spread across each category and each country in the same ratio as normal quota.Which means it will get distributed to each category (eb1 - eb5) in the same ratio as the yearly quota. Within each category it will be distributed again in same ratio (I, C, M, P, ROW). If we consider the worse case scenario of 16.5k, how much movement can we expect for eb2I?

[idliman]

Thanks Spec. Assuming that any spillover is evenly spread across each category and each country in the same ratio as normal quota.Which means it will get distributed to each category (eb1 - eb5) in the same ratio as the yearly quota. Within each category it will be distributed again in same ratio (I, C, M, P, ROW). If we consider the worse case scenario of 16.5k, how much movement can we expect for eb2I?
Per Specs post #5199:: For a spillover of 10,000 EB1I, EB2I and EB3I each will get 200 numbers. For 16.5K, they will get 1.65*200 = 330 numbers. A week?

[4WatItsWorth]

Thanks Spec. Assuming that any spillover is evenly spread across each category and each country in the same ratio as normal quota.Which means it will get distributed to each category (eb1 - eb5) in the same ratio as the yearly quota. Within each category it will be distributed again in same ratio (I, C, M, P, ROW). If we consider the worse case scenario of 16.5k, how much movement can we expect for eb2I?I think not much — maybe, mid-May 2009 or even less. Based on last PI report, there were 1429 cases for May2009 for EB2-I. I think that is does not have CP cases. So, add that. The overall SO of 16.5k, with regular distribution among all categories will mean only ~330 additional visas for B2-I. See Spec’s post a couple of pages back for calculating this.

At some point, if the SO is so high that it satisfies all EB2-ROW or EB4, 5 demand and the SO just flows through them over to EB2-I, it will result in more movement but I do not know what that tipping point is for each of those categories. Spec or other gurus might do.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. Assuming that any spillover is evenly spread across each category and each country in the same ratio as normal quota.Which means it will get distributed to each category (eb1 - eb5) in the same ratio as the yearly quota. Within each category it will be distributed again in same ratio (I, C, M, P, ROW). If we consider the worse case scenario of 16.5k, how much movement can we expect for eb2I?

As others have already said, 16.5k only translates to an extra 330 visas for the FY for each of EB1-I - EB3-I. That in itself is not going to have much effect.

The more important effect may be that it slows down when EB1-EB3-ROW become retrogressed, or allows them to stay Current for the whole FY. This is a prerequisite for lateral SO within the categories.

Taking EB2-ROW as an example, they retrogressed a month early in FY2018 and 2 months early in FY2019.

Simplistically, this means that available visas are used up in 11 months. At 30k use in 11 months, it means around 2.7k demand falling into the next FY in the first year. After 2 years, 5.4k demand falls into the next FY etc.

16.5k would give an extra 3.4k to ROW in each of EB1-EB3. How it works out in each Category may be different. For instance, I haven't the faintest clue what the demand for EB3-ROW is at present.

Vertical SO is virtually impossible at this time. China will use any spare visas in EB5. Central American countries will use any spare visas in EB4. EB1-ROW needs to become Current, then China and India will then use any spare visas in EB1.

[texas_]

As others have already said, 16.5k only translates to an extra 330 visas for the FY for each of EB1-I - EB3-I. That in itself is not going to have much effect.

The more important effect may be that it slows down when EB1-EB3-ROW become retrogressed, or allows them to stay Current for the whole FY. This is a prerequisite for lateral SO within the categories.

Taking EB2-ROW as an example, they retrogressed a month early in FY2018 and 2 months early in FY2019.

Simplistically, this means that available visas are used up in 11 months. At 30k use in 11 months, it means around 2.7k demand falling into the next FY in the first year. After 2 years, 5.4k demand falls into the next FY etc.

16.5k would give an extra 3.4k to ROW in each of EB1-EB3. How it works out in each Category may be different. For instance, I haven't the faintest clue what the demand for EB3-ROW is at present.

Vertical SO is virtually impossible at this time. China will use any spare visas in EB5. Central American countries will use any spare visas in EB4. EB1-ROW needs to become Current, then China and India will then use any spare visas in EB1.


Does that mean 30k use in 11 months and 2.7K demand falling and carrying over to next FY meaning any good for EB2 and EB3 community in a couple of years from now?

[Spectator]

I know my posts can paint a rather grim picture.

Something I meant to post in an earlier post is a bit brighter.

We've discussed the fact that the 7% limit is assessed over the sum of EB and FB allocations and is generally around 25,620.

We've also discussed how this helps both Philippines and South Korea.

If India's FB totals are lower in FY2019, then it might allow / has allowed CO to give more approvals to India EB categories, while still staying within the overall 7% limit.

I've had a look at comparing India FB approvals from FY2018 against those for FY2019 (for the period Oct-Jun).

Indeed India does have lower FB CP approvals this year, particularly in the FB4 category.

--------- FB1 ---- FB2A ---- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 - Grand Total
India --- (62) --- (799) ---- (71) - 1,034 - (3,266) ----- (3,164)

Might be good news, might not.

[texas_]

I know my posts can paint a rather grim picture.

Something I meant to post in an earlier post is a bit brighter.

We've discussed the fact that the 7% limit is assessed over the sum of EB and FB allocations and is generally around 25,620.

We've also discussed how this helps both Philippines and South Korea.

If India's FB totals are lower in FY2019, then it might allow / has allowed CO to give more approvals to India EB categories, while still staying within the overall 7% limit.

I've had a look at comparing India FB approvals from FY2018 against those for FY2019 (for the period Oct-Jun).

Indeed India does have lower FB approvals this year, particularly in the FB4 category.

--------- FB1 ---- FB2A ---- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 - Grand Total
India --- (62) --- (799) ---- (71) - 1,034 - (3,266) ----- (3,164)

Might be good news, might not.

Thanks Spec as always !!

I am trying to interpret your FB counts thus far for FY 19 equating to 3164. Assume we get 3164 extra visas from FB --> EB that would apply early next FY.
I believe it will be evenly divided by 5 EB categories so 3164 /5 ~ 633 visa each EB category would end up receiving

633 numbers might fluctuate but this is a good starting to next FY I believe

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec as always !!

I am trying to interpret your FB counts thus far for FY 19 equating to 3164. Assume we get 3164 extra visas from FB --> EB that would apply early next FY.
I believe it will be evenly divided by 5 EB categories so 3164 /5 ~ 633 visa each EB category would end up receiving

633 numbers might fluctuate but this is a good starting to next FY I believe

CO would have to use them this FY, since it relates to the 7% limit, rather than unused visas.

To put it in context, 7% of the 226,000 FB allocation is 15,820.
In Oct-June of FY2019, India's total FB use is 9,468 and there are 3 months to go.

However, we have no idea whether CO has already taken this into account when setting the EB Cut Off Dates for India. Since he is now starting to retrogress dates or make them Unavailable, it doesn't seem that likely that there will be further movement this FY.

I know it gets horrendously complicated - sorry.

[canada]

I understood TODAY that Pending inventory does not include CP :mad:

This is way complicated to understand, predict without all the information

I really wish they give us the latest pending inventory numbers


Thanks Spectator

[newyorker123]

Q/Spec, how will the EB5 higher payments rule impact EB2/3 dates [Assuming there is a reduction in the rate of EB5 applications next year] ?
This rule will become effective starting Nov 2019.

[Spectator]

Q/Spec, how will the EB5 higher payments rule impact EB2/3 dates [Assuming there is a reduction in the rate of EB5 applications next year] ?
This rule will become effective starting Nov 2019.

I think it's likely to be some time before any effect is seen.

Existing I-526 applications will likely continue under the existing rules and there are a lot of them to be processed.

On November 2018, NVC held 39,001 EB5 applications awaiting a visa (including dependents).
At the end of Q2 FY2019, USCIS had a backlog of 13,105 I-526. With the current approval rate of 84.53% and a dependent ratio of 2.81, this equates to a possible 31,129 EB5 visas.

Altogether, that's a potential 70,130 EB5 visas, which at 9,940 / year equates to around 7 years to clear the EB5 backlog.

It may be shorter than that, but any EB5 change, such as that proposed, is not going to have any immediate effect on the number of EB5 approvals.

After that, it's possible the numbers will be lower, but I wouldn't underestimate the number of Chinese who could still comfortably afford $900k instead of $500K.

[qesehmk]

Q/Spec, how will the EB5 higher payments rule impact EB2/3 dates [Assuming there is a reduction in the rate of EB5 applications next year] ?
This rule will become effective starting Nov 2019.

I don't see much impact on China. The Indian and other numbers will certainly reduce. How much? Its anybody's guess!

[canada]

Can anyone clarify this question?

After several years of being backlogged, EB3 -most of the candidates might have ported to EB2 and EB3 must be way ahead than still lingering in and around 2009, what could be the reason? I understand that EB2 is clogged because there are no spillovers from EB1 but lot of porters from EB3.

Thanks

[Dondraper]

Can anyone clarify this question?

After several years of being backlogged, EB3 -most of the candidates might have ported to EB2 and EB3 must be way ahead than still lingering in and around 2009, what could be the reason? I understand that EB2 is clogged because there are no spillovers from EB1 but lot of porters from EB3.

Thanks

there is no Eb2/3 line of india. its two long lines where everyone steps to the fastest line and than if the next one gets faster they step to that one. so all lines become slower cause everyone is in every line. its like the matrix neo is everywhere

[vyruss]

Can anyone clarify this question?

After several years of being backlogged, EB3 -most of the candidates might have ported to EB2 and EB3 must be way ahead than still lingering in and around 2009, what could be the reason? I understand that EB2 is clogged because there are no spillovers from EB1 but lot of porters from EB3.

Thanks

A couple of explanations:

1. There are folks with both EB3 and EB2 I-140's in the months of April, May and June 2009. It is possible they are getting GCs in the EB3 category and not EB2. Also the reason EB2 is trudging along 3 days a month.
2. Not every EB3 applicant ported to EB2. There are a few people who have not and they probably have spouse+children also filing in EB3.

What's astounding is that, us desis found a way to file for GC in the peak of great recession :). Between EB2 and EB3, the average filings per month may have taken some dip during the time, but does not reflect the overall job loss around that time.

[Dondraper]

2010 was the recovery period. 2007/8/9 was peak recession. i dont think dates will move out of 2009 for another 10 years

[vyruss]

2010 was the recovery period. 2007/8/9 was peak recession. i dont think dates will move out of 2009 for another 10 years

I would say the worst case is 3-4 years. Not 10 years.

[idliman]

I would say the worst case is 3-4 years. Not 10 years.
I don't think we need to be that pessimistic. The remaining inventory of approx 9000 EB2I till end of 2009 should clear in a maximum of 3 years (assuming no spillover). However, EB3I will probably have 3000 people (guess; 6months x 500 numbers) who have not filed their AOS till end of 2009. The downward porting from EB2I to EB3I should make EB2I move faster. I wish, CO would move EB3I dates aggressively and then retrogress. This will allow people to file for EAD+AP and start their 180 day AC21 clock. However, he seems to be extremely cautious and does not want retrogression.

I am hoping that by end of 2020 (Say DEC2020), EB3I will reach end of 01JAN2010 (subject to retrogression).

[canada]

I would say the worst case is 3-4 years. Not 10 years.

I agree if the Pending Inventory of July 2018 has correct figures. 2023 is when 2009 clears