EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[aquatican]

The next bulletin for March 2015 should be out by tomorrow.
I hope they do not move it again by 6 months. The more they move it now the lesser the chances of it advancing beyond May 2009.
Keeping fingers crossed.


looks like last year around march uscis started issuing mass-rfe's for EB3I and EB2I. Will they start around that time to have the medicals etc done and completed valid medical reports be on file by july ? did they give like 60 days time to respond to rfe ?

Generally for the Medicals and EVL how much time does usics give to respond back ?

[Spectator]

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_1_12_2015.pdf

[CleanSock]

EB2I at 1 JAN 07. That's a big jump!

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-march-2015.html



The next bulletin for March 2015 should be out by tomorrow.
I hope they do not move it again by 6 months. The more they move it now the lesser the chances of it advancing beyond May 2009.
Keeping fingers crossed.

[sstest]

The next bulletin for March 2015 should be out by tomorrow.
I hope they do not move it again by 6 months. The more they move it now the lesser the chances of it advancing beyond May 2009.
Keeping fingers crossed.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-march-2015.html

EB2I moves from 01SEP05 to 01JAN07
EB2C moves from 15MAR10 to 01SEP10

[CleanSock]

I can't believe the total number of EB1 I pending for the year 2014. Were there really that many applications? It is scary!

Spec/Q/Other gurus, what is your take on that?

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_1_12_2015.pdf

[jimmys]

I can't believe the total number of EB1 I pending for the year 2014. Were there really that many applications? It is scary!

Spec/Q/Other gurus, what is your take on that?

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/EB_I-485_Pending_Inventory_as_of_1_12_2015.pdf


To me, it shows slow processing of I-485 applications. I'm not sure if it's a scary thing. Waiting for others' input.

[jimmys]

The more they move it now the lesser the chances of it advancing beyond May 2009.


Why so? Any thoughts on it?

[mechanical13]

Why so? Any thoughts on it?

Two main reasons:

1) If the dates move slowly, there is more opportunity for porters to file and get processed. Porting has already been cited to be the primary reason why dates didn't move as much as time.

2)USCIS will have a much better handle on actual immigrant VISA consumption, so there a smaller chance that they will move dates more drastically towards the end of the year

These are just a few reasons I can think of. Others may have other ideas.

[YTeleven]

I've NO changes to my earlier predictions. All the new data pointers are inline with the earlier predictions.
EB3-I predictions:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=54074#post54074
EB2-I predictions:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=53828#post53828
EB-India total:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=54877#post54877

[krishn]

As promised, here is the Projections for Visa allocations in FY2015 for EB-INDIA : FY2015_Projected_Visa_Allocations_For_EB2-India_and_EB3-India_Version1 (https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92ZVFKWERBMG9Kbmc/view?usp=sharing)

YTeleven,

so you think there will be 8.5k visas for eb3I in FY2015 , i.e a fallacross/spillover of 5500 visas?

thanks

[aquatican]

imho, By advancing the COD so earlier we will see a lot of porting.
This will eat up the allocation of this fiscal easily. Hence in the last quarter if we get really less spillover ( as all indicators by experts) are promising we will see minimal advancement from last years cutoff of May 2009.

Now everything depends on how much EB1 will use up quota and how much fall across EB2ROW will give ( which depends on PERM processing speeds)
If any of these variables becomes detrimental we will have extremely pessimistic results.




YTeleven,

so you think there will be 8.5k visas for eb3I in FY2015 , i.e a fallacross/spillover of 5500 visas?

thanks

[PD2008AUG25]

imho, By advancing the COD so earlier we will see a lot of porting.
This will eat up the allocation of this fiscal easily. Hence in the last quarter if we get really less spillover ( as all indicators by experts) are promising we will see minimal advancement from last years cutoff of May 2009.

Now everything depends on how much EB1 will use up quota and how much fall across EB2ROW will give ( which depends on PERM processing speeds)
If any of these variables becomes detrimental we will have extremely pessimistic results.

I think CO may be changing strategy in light of executive action memo.


The directive from USCIS director is to work with Department of State to modernize the visa bulletin systems, provide green cards to the eligible individuals when there is demand for such individuals, review the current policy and make changes as needed to help the approved employment based petitions remain valid, when they change jobs.

The bold part in above text probably means he can no longer do his vigilante justice by trying to reduce porting.

[kkruna]

"provide green cards to the eligible individuals when there is demand for such individuals"

Should this actually mean that they make the date current so long as they have visa numbers available? Now this would result in a mess when applied to FB category but this is an opinion many have...

[qesehmk]

"provide green cards to the eligible individuals when there is demand for such individuals"

Should this actually mean that they make the date current so long as they have visa numbers available? Now this would result in a mess when applied to FB category but this is an opinion many have...

I think an "Eligible" individual is an individual with "Current" date among other things.

[bluelabel]

I think this movement may be because of the change in medical policy. Moving slowly will provide every I-485 application to be processed and approved in less than 365 days so that applicants do not have to re-do medicals. I really doubt if the next inventory building will be as aggressive as it was in 2011-12.

[mechanical13]

I think this movement may be because of the change in medical policy. Moving slowly will provide every I-485 application to be processed and approved in less than 365 days so that applicants do not have to re-do medicals. I really doubt if the next inventory building will be as aggressive as it was in 2011-12.

I think you are giving USCIS too much credit. They really don't care and the process is far more messed up than one could fathom:

1) They would follow FIFO and not randomly approve GCs when dates become current
2) They would send medical RFEs to only those who are close to becoming current. Not a random shotgun spray that covers years and years.
3) They wouldn't be harassing PhDs and Researchers with RFEs, while approving E1C 'international manager' cases left and right.

...the list is very long.

[gten20]

I think you are giving USCIS too much credit. They really don't care and the process if far more messed up than one could phantom:
....

I think you meant fathom. :)
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/fathom

Sorry.. m a little testy today and I don't know why. :confused:

[mechanical13]

I think you meant fathom. :)
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/fathom

Sorry.. m a little testy today and I don't know why. :confused:

Ha ha yes...thanks for pointing this out. Very erudite of you!

[Jagan01]

imho, By advancing the COD so earlier we will see a lot of porting.
This will eat up the allocation of this fiscal easily. Hence in the last quarter if we get really less spillover ( as all indicators by experts) are promising we will see minimal advancement from last years cutoff of May 2009.

Now everything depends on how much EB1 will use up quota and how much fall across EB2ROW will give ( which depends on PERM processing speeds)
If any of these variables becomes detrimental we will have extremely pessimistic results.

You need to consider the number of chances people with those PDs have received.

PDs up until Aug 2007 have been current in 2007, 2011, 2013, 2014. Most of them have already ported and have pending I-485s. Very few people before this date will port.
PDs up until Jun 2008 have been current in 2011, 2013, 2014. I would say majority have already ported.
PDs up until May 2009 have been current in 2011 and 2014. I would expect some porting from people in this range.
PDs after May 2009. Have been current only ONCE in 2011. Major porting from these candidates.

According to me you should not be worried about porters before Jun 2008. But if date moves beyond Jun 08 pretty quickly then it is something to worry about.

[aquatican]

That's probably important to factor in.

While i cannot begin to fathom the reasons why CO does this different every year, it will be interesting to see the fallout of this strategy when the end of Fiscal year comes around and when we expect spillover and fall across.
I always thought he cannot apply spillover and fall across until July, Aug and September.
From his statement at AILA/Bulletin he mentioned that we will have some progress in COD till the end though 'not as much' as last year.




You need to consider the number of chances people with those PDs have received.

PDs up until Aug 2007 have been current in 2007, 2011, 2013, 2014. Most of them have already ported and have pending I-485s. Very few people before this date will port.
PDs up until Jun 2008 have been current in 2011, 2013, 2014. I would say majority have already ported.
PDs up until May 2009 have been current in 2011 and 2014. I would expect some porting from people in this range.
PDs after May 2009. Have been current only ONCE in 2011. Major porting from these candidates.

According to me you should not be worried about porters before Jun 2008. But if date moves beyond Jun 08 pretty quickly then it is something to worry about.

[Jagan01]

That's probably important to factor in.

While i cannot begin to fathom the reasons why CO does this different every year, it will be interesting to see the fallout of this strategy when the end of Fiscal year comes around and when we expect spillover and fall across.
I always thought he cannot apply spillover and fall across until July, Aug and September.
From his statement at AILA/Bulletin he mentioned that we will have some progress in COD till the end though 'not as much' as last year.

He may not need to apply spillover and fall across until third quarter. He might just end up using 3k annual quota and that is till sufficient for movement into summer of 2008.

HE mentioned 'not as much' as last year. Depends how you see it. According to me, last years movement was Jun 08 (FY 2013 end) to May 09 (FY 2014 end). 11 months effective progress. It may be less than that and might be 7 months and enough to cover Dec 2009.

[sportsfan33]

To me, it looks pretty straightforward. CO is simply advancing the date to consume the annual quota for EB2I. For the first 6 months, he should be giving out 1400 visas, and the date is advanced to simply fulfill that number.

Remember that in FY 2014, CO spent the entire EB2I quota in the first 2 months itself. There were simply no more visas to be given out; hence the date stayed stuck.

Unless someone can prove, I don't think CO is applying any form of quarterly spillover yet. So there is just nothing to worry about.

Finally, as jagan has pointed out, the porting density until the beginning of 2008 should have been reduced quite substantially. The inventory shows quite a low number for the years 2005 and 2006. If the data gets into 2008, that's the time to start worrying. I hope it's not going to happen and the big jump will simply happen in 1 step for some time in 2010.

[srimurthy]

Should not we also consider that for the last section of PDs after May 2009, they would be reaching eligilibility for EB2 - 5 + Years of experience just arount this time (if not all but most) and it would take time for them to get a new labor approved and have that number on the lower end until end of 2016.
Just my thoughts.... on considering that there should not be much porting numbers added for 2009 to 2011 until a couple of years from now!!!


You need to consider the number of chances people with those PDs have received.

PDs up until Aug 2007 have been current in 2007, 2011, 2013, 2014. Most of them have already ported and have pending I-485s. Very few people before this date will port.
PDs up until Jun 2008 have been current in 2011, 2013, 2014. I would say majority have already ported.
PDs up until May 2009 have been current in 2011 and 2014. I would expect some porting from people in this range.
PDs after May 2009. Have been current only ONCE in 2011. Major porting from these candidates.

According to me you should not be worried about porters before Jun 2008. But if date moves beyond Jun 08 pretty quickly then it is something to worry about.

[tiredtotrack]

I have followed this forum for over 2 years now and it has given me good insights on overall GC process, which has helped me plan things quite well. Zillion thanks to all members to create and maintain such forum and to educate people like me.
I always have this question(and may be it has been answered before) on porters, that when dates move how can one port in that limited window? Don't they have to refile labor ? which takes time . I can understand that they can file I-140 and I-485 concurrently but labor alone can take 4-5 months and in mean time dates moves back . So how can those have effect on increasing I-1485 applications/inventory unless people have already started the porting process expecting that date movement.
Thanks for taking time to answer my question!

[Jagan01]

I have followed this forum for over 2 years now and it has given me good insights on overall GC process, which has helped me plan things quite well. Zillion thanks to all members to create and maintain such forum and to educate people like me.
I always have this question(and may be it has been answered before) on porters, that when dates move how can one port in that limited window? Don't they have to refile labor ? which takes time . I can understand that they can file I-140 and I-485 concurrently but labor alone can take 4-5 months and in mean time dates moves back . So how can those have effect on increasing I-1485 applications/inventory unless people have already started the porting process expecting that date movement.
Thanks for taking time to answer my question!

You answered your question. "unless people have already started the porting process expecting that date movement". PERM can be filed anytime and people do that in advance.

[jimmys]

I have followed this forum for over 2 years now and it has given me good insights on overall GC process, which has helped me plan things quite well. Zillion thanks to all members to create and maintain such forum and to educate people like me.
I always have this question(and may be it has been answered before) on porters, that when dates move how can one port in that limited window? Don't they have to refile labor ? which takes time . I can understand that they can file I-140 and I-485 concurrently but labor alone can take 4-5 months and in mean time dates moves back . So how can those have effect on increasing I-1485 applications/inventory unless people have already started the porting process expecting that date movement.
Thanks for taking time to answer my question!

It doesn't mean people are going to start filing PERM to port the moment visa bulletin was released. It's about the people who have already done the PERM and waiting for the dates to cross their previous PD. For example, with an EB3I PD of 1 Oct ,2007(Meaning he never filed I-485), someone could have easily obtained EB2 PERM in the last few months. For him, when the dates move beyond 1 Oct,2007, he's gonna file for I-485. Like this there are many people who filed EB2(Previous PD EB3) PERM and waiting for their dates to be current so that they can file I-485 or they can ask USCIS to interfile their existing I-485 applications with their new PERM with old PD. Thus they increase the no of visa numbers consumed for EB2I.

[sportsfan33]

I have followed this forum for over 2 years now and it has given me good insights on overall GC process, which has helped me plan things quite well. Zillion thanks to all members to create and maintain such forum and to educate people like me.
I always have this question(and may be it has been answered before) on porters, that when dates move how can one port in that limited window? Don't they have to refile labor ? which takes time . I can understand that they can file I-140 and I-485 concurrently but labor alone can take 4-5 months and in mean time dates moves back . So how can those have effect on increasing I-1485 applications/inventory unless people have already started the porting process expecting that date movement.
Thanks for taking time to answer my question!

As others have noted, people have clear labors well in advance. What we don't know in my knowledge is the number of outstanding labor applications at the USCIS broken down by the country and category. That's a massive big black hole which makes prediction almost impossible.

The way to project future demand has been to get the PERM data instead, estimate the categories (PERM does not indicate EB2/EB3), estimate the effect of porting, subtract "parallel" applications, etc. etc. All of the multiple PERM and other effects have been captured in a number called the "PERM multiplier", which was a little over 1 (1.05 if memory serves me right) for EB2I. This means for every approved PERM that shows up for India in a given year, you can expect something like 1.05 485 applications that will eventually show up in EB2I inventory.

I don't know how much of all this historical calculation is still accurate though. I haven't looked around lately.

[qesehmk]

In the interest of everybody ... here is a list of biggest GC sponsors in the US since 2010 and the (approximate) number of cases they filed.



MICROSOFT CORPORATION
10487


COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS US CORPORATION
3940


INTEL CORPORATION
2885


GOOGLE INC.
2049


CISCO SYSTEMS, INC.
1420


AMAZON CORPORATE LLC
1370


ORACLE AMERICA, INC.
1251


APPLE INC.
1177


QUALCOMM, INC.
1012


INFOSYS LTD.
927


DELOITTE CONSULTING LLP
854


BROADCOM CORPORATION
798


IBM CORPORATION
716


YAHOO! INC.
683


BLOOMBERG L.P.
656


BANK OF AMERICA
617


QUALCOMM TECHNOLOGIES INC.
607


PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS
588


ERNST & YOUNG U.S. LLP
582


TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
577


VMWARE, INC.
566


KFORCE INC.
552


HEWLETT-PACKARD COMPANY
548


NVIDIA CORPORATION
530


MASTECH, INC., A MASTECH HOLDINGS, INC. COMPANY
521


FACEBOOK, INC.
497

[imdeng]

These are just the employers that count towards the annual cap I think. I know that University systems, especially those with large medical systems, are a big part of H1B numbers as well - but they don't count towards the cap.

In the interest of everybody ... here is a list of biggest GC sponsors in the US since 2010 and the (approximate) number of cases they filed.

[qesehmk]

Good observation imdeng. Thanks.
These are just the employers that count towards the annual cap I think. I know that University systems, especially those with large medical systems, are a big part of H1B numbers as well - but they don't count towards the cap.

[Spectator]

Ron Gotcher has been kind enough to reproduce the outcome in this thread http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/updated-cutoff-date-movement-information.17629/ on his forum.


This is from the latest liaison meeting with the Visa Office (2/10/2015)

EB-2 India.

The big news in the March 2015 Visa Bulletin is the advancement of the EB-2 India cut-off date by 16 months—from September 1, 2005 to January 1, 2007. Consistent with Charlie’s projections last month, EB-2 India has advanced much earlier than in prior years and more dramatically than the 4 to 6 month minimum discussed in last month’s report.

The State Department is pursuing this strategy in an effort to help ensure the adjudication of pending EB-2 India adjustment of status applications before time sensitive materials expire, and to allow sufficient time for applications to be processed should resources issues arise toward the end of the fiscal year. Charlie anticipates that EB-2 India will advance further in April, though probably not as significantly as that which we saw for March. Charlie anticipates that the EB-2 India cut-off date will likely continue to advance through this fiscal year, but at a steadier rate and without a huge leap forward near the end of the fiscal year as it has in the past. As a result of the EB-2 movement, Charlie anticipates an increase in EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades and hence, more adjustment of status filings. If these numbers are significant, the advancement of EB-2 India may slow, or require a correction.
EB-2 India remains a category to watch closely as the fiscal year progresses.

EB-2 and EB-3 China.

In March, EB-2 China will advance more than five months from March 15, 2010 to September 1, 2010. This is the biggest advancement for EB-2 China in some time. For the past two years, EB-2 China had been advancing at a pace of roughly one month.

The advancement of EB-2 China is attributable in part to light demand in the China family categories, along with an effort to provide sufficient time for new filings to be processed to conclusion this fiscal year. This is likely to continue for at least a little while longer. Note, however, that the EB-3 China cut-off date continues to be more than 13 months ahead of EB-2 China, resulting in EB-3 downgrades. Charlie expects that demand for EB-3 China will continue to grow as a result of the downgrades, which may result in another significant advancement for EB-2 China in April, and a priority date hold or retrogression for EB-3 China at some point in the future. The timing of a hold or correction remains uncertain, but it could happen within the next couple of months if the demand witnessed in January continues or increases. A combination of corrective action in the China EB-3 cut-off, and forward movement for EB-2 would end the downgrade trend. That could increase EB-2 demand and impact that cut-off.

As mentioned above, demand for the China family-based categories is currently low. As a result, some China family-based numbers are dropping into the China employment-based categories. A change in this trend would impact future China EB movements.


Ron

James Ronald Gotcher
Global Immigration Partners
22775 Malibu Hills Road, Suite 150
Calabasas Hills, CA 91301
Tel: 818-914-6482
Fax: 818-475-3450

Inquiries@GotcherLaw.com

[imdeng]

I imagine this is alluding to the 1 year expiration of the Medical RFE responses. If that is so then it is a good sign that USCIS is aware of the issue and is proactively deadline with it. Kanmani has already done three medicals and she will not be happy if CO makes her do the fourth. Fear the wrath of Kanmani CO and do the right thing :-)

They would need to reach 01NOV2009 by June I think to catch almost all of the RFE responses submitted last year. My RFE response was received almost end of July - but I was one of the later RFEs I believe.

The State Department is pursuing this strategy in an effort to help ensure the adjudication of pending EB-2 India adjustment of status applications before time sensitive materials expire

[imdeng]

This is a bit of a personal update. There was a discussion some time back in this thread about doing AC21 employer change with a lower salary. I had asked for opinions since it could have been relevant for me. Kanmani had, as usual, a very thoughtful and helpful reply to my query. I just wanted to update folks that I have managed to escape the scenario. I managed to find a position in my field with a nice bump up in salary :-)

I will be moving back Ann Arbor, MI - back to my alma mater - after the coming summer. Anyone here close by?

[YTeleven]

I imagine this is alluding to the 1 year expiration of the Medical RFE responses. If that is so then it is a good sign that USCIS is aware of the issue and is proactively deadline with it. Kanmani has already done three medicals and she will not be happy if CO makes her do the fourth. Fear the wrath of Kanmani CO and do the right thing :-)

They would need to reach 01NOV2009 by June I think to catch almost all of the RFE responses submitted last year. My RFE response was received almost end of July - but I was one of the later RFEs I believe.

If CO wants to reach till 01NOV2009 for EB2-I, he needs to be hurry and do it in next 2 VBs.
EB2-ROW inventory is shooting up fast, it raised 20% in FY15-Q1 from 15K to 18K which is NOT a good sign for EB2-I. It will be tough to move to this far if he waits for year end spillover.
One reason for the increase in EB2-ROW inventory could be the processing delays:
The total I-485s approved in FY15-Q1 was just 21,368 which is just 17% of yearly quota(assuming an average of 125K as yearly AOS approvals).
Pending I-140s got increased 20% from 30k to 36k.
Here is the latest all forms data:
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all_forms_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf

[YTeleven]

For those who are waiting eagerly for H4EAD rule:

Here is the Federal Register Citation #:80 FR 11111 for H4EAD rule RIN: 1615-AB92.
Where 80 is the Vol. number and 11111 is the page number.
The last page number of the Federal Register published so far till today is : 7966
It might take another 2 more weeks to reach the page number : 11111

[ris123]

Hello. I really appreciate if anyone can help me with my concern. If I want to jump from company A to company B using AC21, can company A revoke my I-140 after I join company B, and if they do in that case is my I-485 still remains valid with the company B? I have just past my 180 days since i-485 filing.

[gcq]

Hello. I really appreciate if anyone can help me with my concern. If I want to jump from company A to company B using AC21, can company A revoke my I-140 after I join company B, and if they do in that case is my I-485 still remains valid with the company B? I have just past my 180 days since i-485 filing.

If company A revokes your I-140 you are still safe. Nothing to worry !

[ris123]

If company A revokes your I-140 you are still safe. Nothing to worry !

Thanks Qcq. So this means that I will still be able to maintain my original priority date and I should not fear for any NOID from USCIS?

[gcq]

Thanks Qcq. So this means that I will still be able to maintain my original priority date and I should not fear for any NOID from USCIS?
Unless your I-140 is revoked by USCIS for fraud or misrepresentation, you are absolutely safe. As per procedure, they are supposed to issue only an RFE, not a NOID. Though not required by law, filing AC21 notification to USCIS will save you from a potential NOID/RFE. Once they have the AC21 documents on file, there is no reason for them to issue an RFE or NOID.

[saagar_is_cool]

If company A revokes your I-140 you are still safe. Nothing to worry !

Not entirely true. If company revokes 140, unless it has been 180 days since 485 was filed, you are not safe. Bottom line is 180 days from 485 filing for invoking AC21.

[gcq]

Not entirely true. If company revokes 140, unless it has been 180 days since 485 was filed, you are not safe. Bottom line is 180 days from 485 filing for invoking AC21.
OP has crossed 180 days. That is why I didn't specifically mention that.

[skpanda]

For those who are waiting eagerly for H4EAD rule:

Here is the Federal Register Citation #:80 FR 11111 for H4EAD rule RIN: 1615-AB92.
Where 80 is the Vol. number and 11111 is the page number.
The last page number of the Federal Register published so far till today is : 7966
It might take another 2 more weeks to reach the page number : 11111


I tried to go to https://www.federalregister.gov/citation/80-FR-11111 and could not find the info.

Also pages such as 8000 have a comment period ending in march 2015. How does it work? Arent they going to come to 11111 unless the comment period for 8000 ends in march?

Any idea??

[YTeleven]

I tried to go to https://www.federalregister.gov/citation/80-FR-11111 and could not find the info.

Also pages such as 8000 have a comment period ending in march 2015. How does it work? Arent they going to come to 11111 unless the comment period for 8000 ends in march?

Any idea??

The 80 FR 11111 is the FR page number where the H4EAD rule get published in future.
This citation number is mentioned in this URL:
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAViewICR?ref_nbr=201502-1615-004
Go to this URL and check the "Rulemaking" check box and you will see the FR citation number for H4 EAD rule.
Till yesterday the latest page published in the FR was 8237. It may take another 2 to 3 weeks of time to get to the page number 11111 based on current publication rate unless they change the page number and publish early.

Also, you will see from the above URL that OMB has approved the changes to the EAD form to include H4 people with conditions and USCIS can use the new forms from the H4 EAD effective date in future.

This is good news for H4 community but it looks like still there is a wait of 2 to 3 more weeks to get it published in FR as FINAL or INTERIM FINAL rule.

[skpanda]

The 80 FR 11111 is the FR page number where the H4EAD rule get published in future.
This citation number is mentioned in this URL:
http://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAViewICR?ref_nbr=201502-1615-004
Go to this URL and check the "Rulemaking" check box and you will see the FR citation number for H4 EAD rule.
Till yesterday the latest page published in the FR was 8237. It may take another 2 to 3 weeks of time to get to the page number 11111 based on current publication rate unless they change the page number and publish early.

Also, you will see from the above URL that OMB has approved the changes to the EAD form to include H4 people with conditions and USCIS can use the new forms from the H4 EAD effective date in future.

This is good news for H4 community but it looks like still there is a wait of 2 to 3 more weeks to get it published in FR as FINAL or INTERIM FINAL rule.

Thanks for the info... is there a link where i can find the updated EAD form & Instruction form? Also, lets say on 15th March the rule is published... usually when does the effective date take place? 30 days?

[YTeleven]

Thanks for the info... is there a link where i can find the updated EAD form & Instruction form? Also, lets say on 15th March the rule is published... usually when does the effective date take place? 30 days?

All the related info you can find from that link.
Check 'All' check box option to elaborate it or see view supporting documents.

[skpanda]

All the related info you can find from that link.
Check 'All' check box option to elaborate it or see view supporting documents.

thanks.. got it...

[aquatican]

Can he make forward movement while remaining within the 7% numerical limit?
From all previous information released he cannot utilize spillover before Q4.

I thnk it's rather ironic that I am getting increasingly worried by this 'forward movement'.
If we advance the dates far ahead now then chances of crossing May 09 to Summer 09 could be affected negatively.




If CO wants to reach till 01NOV2009 for EB2-I, he needs to be hurry and do it in next 2 VBs.
EB2-ROW inventory is shooting up fast, it raised 20% in FY15-Q1 from 15K to 18K which is NOT a good sign for EB2-I. It will be tough to move to this far if he waits for year end spillover.
One reason for the increase in EB2-ROW inventory could be the processing delays:
The total I-485s approved in FY15-Q1 was just 21,368 which is just 17% of yearly quota(assuming an average of 125K as yearly AOS approvals).
Pending I-140s got increased 20% from 30k to 36k.
Here is the latest all forms data:
http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/All%20Form%20Types/all_forms_performancedata_fy2015_qtr1.pdf

[vizcard]

This is a bit of a personal update. There was a discussion some time back in this thread about doing AC21 employer change with a lower salary. I had asked for opinions since it could have been relevant for me. Kanmani had, as usual, a very thoughtful and helpful reply to my query. I just wanted to update folks that I have managed to escape the scenario. I managed to find a position in my field with a nice bump up in salary :-)

I will be moving back Ann Arbor, MI - back to my alma mater - after the coming summer. Anyone here close by?

i feel bad u have to go back to that dump :p :cool:

[vizcard]

In the interest of everybody ... here is a list of biggest GC sponsors in the US since 2010 and the (approximate) number of cases they filed.



MICROSOFT CORPORATION
10487


COGNIZANT TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS US CORPORATION
3940


INTEL CORPORATION
2885


GOOGLE INC.
2049


CISCO SYSTEMS, INC.
1420


AMAZON CORPORATE LLC
1370


ORACLE AMERICA, INC.
1251


APPLE INC.
1177


QUALCOMM, INC.
1012


INFOSYS LTD.
927


DELOITTE CONSULTING LLP
854


BROADCOM CORPORATION
798


IBM CORPORATION
716


YAHOO! INC.
683


BLOOMBERG L.P.
656


BANK OF AMERICA
617


QUALCOMM TECHNOLOGIES INC.
607


PRICEWATERHOUSECOOPERS
588


ERNST & YOUNG U.S. LLP
582


TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED
577


VMWARE, INC.
566


KFORCE INC.
552


HEWLETT-PACKARD COMPANY
548


NVIDIA CORPORATION
530


MASTECH, INC., A MASTECH HOLDINGS, INC. COMPANY
521


FACEBOOK, INC.
497







My former employer made the list ... of course they filed way before 2010 for me :)

[qesehmk]

Anybody noticed how USCIS dashboard is acting funny. Or is it just me?

Since when that site stopped working?

[Spectator]

Anybody noticed how USCIS dashboard is acting funny. Or is it just me?

Since when that site stopped working?It's very disappointing.

It was last updated on October 23, 2014.

[qesehmk]

It's very disappointing.

It was last updated on October 23, 2014.
Such a pity Spec. I think when they revamped USCIS site - somebody forgot to take care of this piece.

[almost]

Gurus,
Apologies on posting in the wrong forum but I have a bit of a situation with my EAD renewal. I had filed for the renewal of my EAD/AP in early December (officially received 9th Dec) and this Saturday I received a notice from USCIs stating:

"After review, we have reopened the above application or petition, or reconsidered the decision previously issued. You will receive a notice under separate cover once all action has been completed"

I called the customer service and as expected they read through some kind of a script and were not of much help. Subsequently I spoke to the attorney and she is trying to call them and get more info.

An important detail is that my attorney stupidly forgot to ask me to send photos for myself and my wife and being tied up at work I didn't pay attention to the lack of the same either.

The scary thing is from verbiage it looks like they might have made a decision and since they didn't say they approved it I am fearing its a denial. My current EAD is valid till March 19th (No H1) and I am shitting bricks for a lack of a better term to describe my situation. My questions are:

1) Does anyone have any experience with this and knows what this means or could mean?
2) Given the lack of time on my hands to be in legal status what options do I have?

Any help would be much appreciated.

[qesehmk]

Gurus,
Apologies on posting in the wrong forum but I have a bit of a situation with my EAD renewal. I had filed for the renewal of my EAD/AP in early December (officially received 9th Dec) and this Saturday I received a notice from USCIs stating:

"After review, we have reopened the above application or petition, or reconsidered the decision previously issued. You will receive a notice under separate cover once all action has been completed"

I called the customer service and as expected they read through some kind of a script and were not of much help. Subsequently I spoke to the attorney and she is trying to call them and get more info.

An important detail is that my attorney stupidly forgot to ask me to send photos for myself and my wife and being tied up at work I didn't pay attention to the lack of the same either.

The scary thing is from verbiage it looks like they might have made a decision and since they didn't say they approved it I am fearing its a denial. My current EAD is valid till March 19th (No H1) and I am shitting bricks for a lack of a better term to describe my situation. My questions are:

1) Does anyone have any experience with this and knows what this means or could mean?
2) Given the lack of time on my hands to be in legal status what options do I have?

Any help would be much appreciated.

Your status is always legal - my friend - since I assume your 485 is already filed.

What is in jeopardy is your ability to work and earn Benjamin !! I am sure this will be resolved. It looks like a minor thing to me.

[almost]

Your status is always legal - my friend - since I assume your 485 is already filed.

What is in jeopardy is your ability to work and earn Benjamin !! I am sure this will be resolved. It looks like a minor thing to me.

Q,

Yes the 485 is already filed with PD of 1st May 2009. Thanks for the reassuring words. I am precisely worried about the ability to earn Benjamin and then offcourse being able to drive to get groceries at the bare minimum :)

Just wanted to see if there is someone who has dealt with this and what my options are at this point?

Thanks

Manzoor

[Kanmani]

Q,

Yes the 485 is already filed with PD of 1st May 2009. Thanks for the reassuring words. I am precisely worried about the ability to earn Benjamin and then offcourse being able to drive to get groceries at the bare minimum :)

Just wanted to see if there is someone who has dealt with this and what my options are at this point?

Thanks

Manzoor

Manzoor, I think it would be wise to contact your local congressman. I guess they would expedite the process or at least help getting an RFE instead of a straight denial ( if at all).

PS: Sorry, I have no personal experience on how to contact a congressman.

[imdeng]

01-May-2009!!! That sucks man!! So close yet so far.

My impression is that your legal status is AoS - which derives from I-485 - not the EAD/AP. So you are legal in the country - as in you will not accrue unlawful presence.

Not having an EAD affects your ability to work of course. I wonder though whether it only affects your "ability to show that you are eligible to work" and not the actual "ability to work" itself. Spec or Kanmani can throw more light here - but I am mentioning this because in 2013 we renewed our EADs and my wife's employer did not ever ask for new EAD even after the old ones on file were expired. We had to remind them to update the I-9 with new EAD information. Perhaps you continue to be eligible to work as long as your status is AoS irrespective of whether you have a currently valid EAD or not. The purpose of EAD is just to show to employers that you are currently eligible.

I myself never faced the situation because I have continued to be on H1B and have been keeping EAD/AP only as a backup.

Q,

Yes the 485 is already filed with PD of 1st May 2009. Thanks for the reassuring words. I am precisely worried about the ability to earn Benjamin and then offcourse being able to drive to get groceries at the bare minimum :)

Just wanted to see if there is someone who has dealt with this and what my options are at this point?

Thanks

Manzoor

[almost]

01-May-2009!!! That sucks man!! So close yet so far.

My impression is that your legal status is AoS - which derives from I-485 - not the EAD/AP. So you are legal in the country - as in you will not accrue unlawful presence.

Not having an EAD affects your ability to work of course. I wonder though whether it only affects your "ability to show that you are eligible to work" and not the actual "ability to work" itself. Spec or Kanmani can throw more light here - but I am mentioning this because in 2013 we renewed our EADs and my wife's employer did not ever ask for new EAD even after the old ones on file were expired. We had to remind them to update the I-9 with new EAD information. Perhaps you continue to be eligible to work as long as your status is AoS irrespective of whether you have a currently valid EAD or not. The purpose of EAD is just to show to employers that you are currently eligible.

I myself never faced the situation because I have continued to be on H1B and have been keeping EAD/AP only as a backup.

Now you know why the ID is almost :)

I am pretty sure that if the EAD gets denied or is pending then it may not be legal to work. The employers don't pay attention but I think they should as they can be held liable for this. I just pray to god that you are correct.

Thanks Kanmani. I didn't think about contacting a congressman but that is a viable option I guess. Just waiting on the attorney to get back to me after speaking to the L2 officer and see what information they get. Really pissed with them (and myself) to have forgotten about the pics...

[gcq]

Now you know why the ID is almost :)

I am pretty sure that if the EAD gets denied or is pending then it may not be legal to work. The employers don't pay attention but I think they should as they can be held liable for this. I just pray to god that you are correct.

Thanks Kanmani. I didn't think about contacting a congressman but that is a viable option I guess. Just waiting on the attorney to get back to me after speaking to the L2 officer and see what information they get. Really pissed with them (and myself) to have forgotten about the pics...

Agree, employer would be in trouble if there is an audit from DOL. They are supposed to have a new I-9 form with new EAD once old one expires. My employer does it every year.

[Kanmani]

imdeng, That doesn't work. We must not engage in any employment between the date of EAD expiry and new EAD.

Just go through the EVL- RFE we responded recently, it calls for continuous employment authorization (either h1 or EAD). I agree that people escape through non vigilant adjudicators.

If I were a adjudicator, I would catch the gap between the approval, and ask for pay checks to verify :):D Howz that !

[iatiam]

imdeng, That doesn't work. We must not engage in any employment between the date of EAD expiry and new EAD.

Just go through the EVL- RFE we responded recently, it calls for continuous employment authorization (either h1 or EAD). I agree that people escape through non vigilant adjudicators.

If I were a adjudicator, I would catch the gap between the approval, and ask for pay checks to verify :):D Howz that !

Kanmani, what do you mean by "continuous employment"? Does it mean you need to be employed without any breaks even if 485 is pending for more than 180 days? Is there a legal document which says this? Also, how much a gap in employment is tolerated by USCIS?

Iatiam

[Kanmani]

Kanmani, what do you mean by "continuous employment"? Does it mean you need to be employed without any breaks even if 485 is pending for more than 180 days? Is there a legal document which says this? Also, how much a gap in employment is tolerated by USCIS?

Iatiam

I said continuous employment authorization, if you are employed as a non-immigrant( includes continuous employment while H1b is pending which is authorized by AC21 rule. )

[iatiam]

I said continuous employment authorization, if you are employed as a non-immigrant( includes continuous employment while H1b is pending which is authorized by AC21 rule. )

Thanks, does it mean that gaps in employment can trigger 485 denial? What is there is a job loss?

I was repeatedly told by people that you can quit your job and not work while 485 is pending. How do you reconcile this discrepancy?

Iatiam

[EB2IndSep09]

Seems the H4 EAD rule got approved by OMB and the rule effective date is set as May 26th 2015.
http://www.uscis.gov/news/dhs-extends-eligibility-employment-authorization-certain-h-4-dependent-spouses-h-1b-nonimmigrants-seeking-employment-based-lawful-permanent-residence

p.s: Please move it to appropriate thread.

[qesehmk]

Thanks, does it mean that gaps in employment can trigger 485 denial? What is there is a job loss?

I was repeatedly told by people that you can quit your job and not work while 485 is pending. How do you reconcile this discrepancy?

Iatiam

I think Kanmani is only speaking about having work authorization for periods you are working i.e. not having any discontinuity while you are working.

You can of course choose NOT to work (whether you have work authorization or not) while 485 is pending and yet have 485 approved as long as the job offer exists.

[Kanmani]

I think Kanmani is only speaking about having work authorization for periods you are working i.e. not having any discontinuity while you are working.

You can of course choose NOT to work (whether you have work authorization or not) while 485 is pending and yet have 485 approved as long as the job offer exists.

Yes I meant exactly what Q has explained above.

If a non-immigrant is working - must have an approved H1b (or) pending H1b renewal (or) Valid EAD (or) L1 and other work authorisations

If a non- immigrant is not working- must have an AoS pending (or) dependent/derivative of any non-immigrant visa (approved or pending)

One cannot work based on pending EAD.

PS: Referring to Emp based applicants only.

[mechanical13]

Yes I meant exactly what Q has explained above....

Hey guys, sorry if this muddies the water a bit, but I am pretty sure there is a rule that permits inadvertent unauthorized stay or unauthorized employment.

So long as the total unauthorized stay/employment is less than 180 days cumulative, there is no reason for 485 denial.

The key word here is inadvertent i.e. unforeseen or unavoidable.

Examples:

1) Genuine oversight of EAD expiration date e.g. misguidance by the attorney or HR department

2) Illness that required an overstay of a VISA for medical reasons etc.


I don't think USCIS accepts blatant disregard very kindly though.

[iatiam]

Yes I meant exactly what Q has explained above.

If a non-immigrant is working - must have an approved H1b (or) pending H1b renewal (or) Valid EAD (or) L1 and other work authorisations

If a non- immigrant is not working- must have an AoS pending (or) dependent/derivative of any non-immigrant visa (approved or pending)

One cannot work based on pending EAD.

PS: Referring to Emp based applicants only.
Q & Kanmani,

Thanks a bunch. Its heartening to know that once 485 is pending for more than 180 days then you don't have to worry too much about "maintaining your status".

Iatiam

[YTeleven]

Interesting data pointers on GC backlogs from this H4EAD final rule document:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2015-04042.pdf

Look at the Table 3 & 4.

EB3 backlogs are 1/3 of EB2 backlogs (NOT I-485 but I-140)

These data pointers make me to re-iterate these points:
1) Eventually EB3 ROW will become current this year and stay in current for many years to come.
2) EB3-I will surpass the EB2-I PDs triggering EB2-I to EB3-I downgrades in near future.
3) Most importantly those who are filing EB2-I GC petitions today think twice and consider filing it in EB3-I instead.

[vishnu]

apologies for asking on this thread, ill delete once a few gurus respond

ead processing time is stated as 3 months

in your experiences, does it take the full 3 months?

[almost]

Kanmani, what do you mean by "continuous employment"? Does it mean you need to be employed without any breaks even if 485 is pending for more than 180 days? Is there a legal document which says this? Also, how much a gap in employment is tolerated by USCIS?

Iatiam

All,

Just an update. My attorney received an RFE asking for missing photos which, as I mentioned in my original question, were never asked for by the lawyer. The response is out already and should be delivered today. Thanks to everyone for pitching in and sharing their thoughts.

My question now is will the clock be reset for the processing time? If yes, then is there something that can be done to expedite it and if anyone has prior experience that they can share it will be helpful.

Thanks

[imdeng]

Very good points. Although, regarding point 3, I imagine downgrading is much easier than upgrading, so it would still make send to file as EB-2I and then downgrade to EB-3I when EB-3I runs ahead of EB-2I.


Interesting data pointers on GC backlogs from this H4EAD final rule document:
https://s3.amazonaws.com/public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2015-04042.pdf

Look at the Table 3 & 4.

EB3 backlogs are 1/3 of EB2 backlogs (NOT I-485 but I-140)

These data pointers make me to re-iterate these points:
1) Eventually EB3 ROW will become current this year and stay in current for many years to come.
2) EB3-I will surpass the EB2-I PDs triggering EB2-I to EB3-I downgrades in near future.
3) Most importantly those who are filing EB2-I GC petitions today think twice and consider filing it in EB3-I instead.

[imdeng]

It often does not take full three months. Many people have reported (including me) a time of ~60 days. Although there are several examples of it taking almost 90 days as well.

apologies for asking on this thread, ill delete once a few gurus respond

ead processing time is stated as 3 months

in your experiences, does it take the full 3 months?

[geterdone]

Mass RFE?

I think mass RFE started around last week of May and the dates started moving in June? Do you think they will start issuing mass RFE early this year with the dates moving forward in each bulletin?

[raj888]

Mass RFE?

I think mass RFE started around last week of May and the dates started moving in June? Do you think they will start issuing mass RFE early this year with the dates moving forward in each bulletin?

If the dates move earlier, there should not be mass RFE. Since medical RFE is valid for 1 year, most of the folks who did their Medical (again or for the first time) would be under the 1 year expiry mark.

[geterdone]

If the dates move earlier, there should not be mass RFE. Since medical RFE is valid for 1 year, most of the folks who did their Medical (again or for the first time) would be under the 1 year expiry mark.

I was under the impression that many people who applied back in 2012 with 2009 pd did not get any RFE last year.

[imdeng]

My impression is otherwise. Many people were delayed - but did get their RFEs for Medical eventually last year.

There might still be RFEs for EVLs.


I was under the impression that many people who applied back in 2012 with 2009 pd did not get any RFE last year.

[mechanical13]

My impression is otherwise. Many people were delayed - but did get their RFEs for Medical eventually last year.

There might still be RFEs for EVLs.

I can confirm - I was along those who got an RFE. PD July 09, 2009. We delayed sending in our response until October to give us the maximum chance of approval before expiration. If we don't get greened this year (highly likely), we'll have to do the medicals again, and hopefully not delay an approval.

This medical process is beyond ludicrous. So many of us have been in this country for 10+ years. If we had any of the medical ailments they are testing for, we would be dead by now...

The price we pay for being skilled and from India.

[tenyearsgone]

Same here. Got the RFE in early July and responded mid-September. My PD is Sep 2009 and it's a waste of time, money and most importantly LCUs to go through the medical RFE multiple times, but it looks like I'll be doing it atleast once more in 2016.


I can confirm - I was along those who got an RFE. PD July 09, 2009. We delayed sending in our response until October to give us the maximum chance of approval before expiration. If we don't get greened this year (highly likely), we'll have to do the medicals again, and hopefully not delay an approval.

This medical process is beyond ludicrous. So many of us have been in this country for 10+ years. If we had any of the medical ailments they are testing for, we would be dead by now...

The price we pay for being skilled and from India.

[gkjppp]

01-May-2009!!! That sucks man!! So close yet so far.

My impression is that your legal status is AoS - which derives from I-485 - not the EAD/AP. So you are legal in the country - as in you will not accrue unlawful presence.

Not having an EAD affects your ability to work of course. I wonder though whether it only affects your "ability to show that you are eligible to work" and not the actual "ability to work" itself. Spec or Kanmani can throw more light here - but I am mentioning this because in 2013 we renewed our EADs and my wife's employer did not ever ask for new EAD even after the old ones on file were expired. We had to remind them to update the I-9 with new EAD information. Perhaps you continue to be eligible to work as long as your status is AoS irrespective of whether you have a currently valid EAD or not. The purpose of EAD is just to show to employers that you are currently eligible.

I myself never faced the situation because I have continued to be on H1B and have been keeping EAD/AP only as a backup.

Interesting to know, One of my friend got terminated not even leave of absence as he was not able to provide EAD before expiring, and also for me i got an email from HR to submit updated EAD before expiring date. So, your I-9 form needs validity of your H1 or EAD. Also you can't renew your DL with pending 485( I am not sure on this though, Guru's can confirm).

[tenyearsgone]

My renewal took 100+ days to get card in hand. My spouse's took ~70 days. The approval timeline seems to have speeded up significantly over the last month or so and trackitt shows folks getting it in 30-40 days now ... maybe in anticipation of DACA etc.

As always, the advice is to apply ~120 days before EAD/AP expiry.


apologies for asking on this thread, ill delete once a few gurus respond

ead processing time is stated as 3 months

in your experiences, does it take the full 3 months?

[qesehmk]

Also you can't renew your DL with pending 485( I am not sure on this though, Guru's can confirm).

I do not know if that is legal but I am pretty sure a lot of states follow that practice. I think it is cruel and sadist.

I also think that - that practice can be challenged in the courts and removed.

[gcq]

I do not know if that is legal but I am pretty sure a lot of states follow that practice. I think it is cruel and sadist.

I also think that - that practice can be challenged in the courts and removed.

In VA, EAD cannot be used to apply for DL anymore ( thanks to former VA governor Bob McDonnell). Original I485 receipt notice is the only document that can be used by people on AOS only for license application/renewal.

[mechanical13]

In VA, EAD cannot be used to apply for DL anymore ( thanks to former VA governor Bob McDonnell). Original I485 receipt notice is the only document that can be used by people on AOS only for license application/renewal.

All these state laws will eventually be contested in court and the laws annulled. The inability to get an DL while on EAD destroys the purpose of the EAD for many. Take the example of someone who has gotten their EAD via DACA or DAPA and needs to drive to work. If the EAD is the only document they have, how are they to get a DL?

[nbk1976]

In FL State, your DL has to be ednewed every year, even if you have a 2 year EAD. It's just a way for the state to rip you off each year of $50 (+$50 for wife).

[imdeng]

It is precisely the reason why some conservative state officials are arguing against EADs being the basis for DLs. As Q said, it is cruel and sadist.

WI used to allow undocumented immigrants to get DLs so they could drive and work. It is no longer allowed so folks who need to get to work essentially need to drive without a license since there is hardly any public transport - and risk being arrested if, for example, they get into a fender bender. The whole idea of DACA/DAPA is to bring people out of the shadows. Unfortunately, some people can not stomach the idea.

PS> Perhaps it would be a good idea for us to get the political leaning discussion out of the main thread. Lets keep the main thread politically neutral.


All these state laws will eventually be contested in court and the laws annulled. The inability to get an DL while on EAD destroys the purpose of the EAD for many. Take the example of someone who has gotten their EAD via DACA or DAPA and needs to drive to work. If the EAD is the only document they have, how are they to get a DL?

[sportsfan33]

I am posting here after a while.

About RFEs, I am a textbook example of someone who received his RFE late (well after the PD was current), responded fast and was a nervous wreck for over a month waiting and waiting. Our GC was eked out end of September, when many EB2I cases were greened. To cut the long story short, expect an RFE. Without your medicals being valid, there is no chance of getting a green card.

Good luck imdeng, kanmani and everyone else. That time of the year is nearing.

Finally, hoorrayyyyyyy to H4EAD! Hats off to everyone who campaigned and pulled this off. No more is the H4 visa a fame to shame.

[bookworm]

Interesting to know, One of my friend got terminated not even leave of absence as he was not able to provide EAD before expiring, and also for me i got an email from HR to submit updated EAD before expiring date. So, your I-9 form needs validity of your H1 or EAD. Also you can't renew your DL with pending 485( I am not sure on this though, Guru's can confirm).

How the employer handles the lack of EAD depends on the advice they receive from their law firms. I had a recent situation where somebody on my team did not get a STEM OPT renewal. Law firm was initially arguing for term and I argued for LOA. Finally sense prevailed and lawyers said its upto the org to decide their course of action. The only requirement is that the individual shouldnt be employed. The definition of employed is subject to debate.

[helooo]

Hello Q,gurus,
Any prediction for EB2I date movements in April VB?

Thanks!

[civilengineer]

Hello Q,gurus,
Any prediction for EB2I date movements in April VB?

Thanks!
No replies from the gurus, so I will throw out a random non-guru guess. July 1, 2007.

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

Please move this question to right thread later.

My Sister is on doing her MBA and presently having OTP until end of March 2015.
She applied for H1B last year, April 2014 and is still pending with USCIS.

Her I-94 will get expired by End of March.
Please advise, which is better option for her.

1) Continue to wait until dicision on H1B is made and then,
a) if H1 gets approved - work on H1 (no problem)
b) If H1 gets rejected - can we then apply for H4.

2) Is it better to change to H4 now, rather then wait until decision is made.

My Brother-in-law is having I-140 Approved, So in either cases, she wanted to utilize H4-EAD after May26th.

Thank You
Madhu.

[nbk1976]

I have known of someone who had her H1 application in the "pending" state for over a year. She felt the approval wasn't happening because the company was very small and USCIS was probably running checks on such companies and her application was put in this "basket" full of such cases. She withdrew and quickly moved to H4.

If the sponsoring company is a small consulting firm, this is probably the case. If so, just switch to H4 and use the new H4-EAD option.

Switching to H4 is easy: with the application, enclose passport photo copies, DL, photocopy of marriage certificate (very important), and the husband's passport photocopies, and a brief letter (half a page: keep it short).

Good luck!

[tatikonda]

Thank you NBK, Anymore suggestions Please !!


I have known of someone who had her H1 approval in the "pending" state for over a year. She felt the approval wasn't happening because the company was very small and USCIS was probably running checks on such companies and her application was put in this "basket" full of such cases. She withdrew and quickly moved to H4.

If the sponsoring company is a small consulting firm, this is probably the case. If so, just switch to H4 and use the new H4-EAD option.

Switching to H4 is easy: with the application, enclose passport photo copies, DL, photocopy of marriage certificate (very important), and the husband's passport photocopies, and a brief letter (half a page: keep it short).

Good luck!

[rmuru99]

I agree, better switch to H4 so that you never go "out of status". Now a days consulates look for proof of continuity while you go for visa stamping. Had that experience recently when I went for visa stamping.

[nbk1976]

You must formally "withdraw" the pending H1 application before "switching" to H4. I am not sure what the process is of withdrawing. You may have to write a letter to USCIS.

[tatikonda]

Hi NBK,

I think, this information is wrong..
No need to withdraw your pending H1B according to Ron Gotcher.


You must formally "withdraw" the pending H1 application before "switching" to H4. I am not sure what the process is of withdrawing. You may have to write a letter to USCIS.

[Spectator]

The April VB has been released http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-april-2015.html

EB2-I moves to 01SEP07 (8 months)
EB2-C moves to 01APR11 from 01SEP10 (7 months)
EB3-I moves to 08JAN04 (1 week)
EB3-C retrogresses to 01JAN11 from 22OCT11
EB3-WW moves to 01OCT14 (4 months)


D. VISA AVAILABILITY - CHINA-mainland born

Employment Third Preference: The cut-off date for this category was advanced very rapidly during the past seven months, in an attempt to generate demand to ensure that all numbers under the annual limit could be made available. Item E in the November 2014 Visa Bulletin notified readers that this rapid movement could require "corrective" action as early as February, once demand began to materialize.

Continued heavy demand by applicants with very early priority dates has required a retrogression of this cut-off date for the month of April, to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. Potential forward movement of this cut-off date during the remainder of the fiscal year is dependent on the amount of demand received for applicants with very early priority dates.

Employment Fifth Preference: Item D of the February Visa Bulletin advised readers that the expected increase in demand would require the establishment of a cut-off date during the summer to hold number use within the annual numerical limit. The establishment of that date can be expected no later than June.

[almost]

The April VB has been released http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-april-2015.html

EB2-I moves to 01SEP07 (8 months)
EB2-C moves to 01APR11 from 01SEP10 (7 months)
EB3-I moves to 08JAN04 (1 week)
EB3-C retrogresses to 01JAN11 from 22OCT11
EB3-WW moves to 01OCT14 (4 months)

Gurus,

In light of the above, how much are we expecting EB2-I to move ahead in summer? Atleast I was expecting a bigger move...maybe a year or so.

[United]

Hi Spectator,

Is there any chance of spillover from Eb3-WW to EB3I in next two three months ?

Thanks

[mechanical13]

Gurus,

In light of the above, how much are we expecting EB2-I to move ahead in summer? Atleast I was expecting a bigger move...maybe a year or so.

IMHO - Smaller moves are better since it prevents porting and visa number usage. Moderate movement until June/July lends to a bigger move towards the end of the year. Won't be a lot though, but something is better than nothing.

[civilengineer]

No replies from the gurus, so I will throw out a random non-guru guess. July 1, 2007.

I was too pessimistic by 2 months, I thought it will move 6 months but it moved 8 months. My prediction for May bulletin is April 1, 2008 ( 7 months progress)

[imdeng]

The fact that EB2I is moving forward - means that there isn't enough porting demand to consume regular ~300/month quota. EB2I is not consuming any spillover right now - so I guess it's a good thing that it is moving on its own. We should still expect *some* jump sometime in late summer.

Assuming another 8 months in May (01APR08), 8 months in June (01DEC08) - after that depends on whether we have spillover and how much.

The EB2C to EB3C downgrade finally caught up to with EB3C's quota it seems.

The April VB has been released http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-april-2015.html

EB2-I moves to 01SEP07 (8 months)
EB2-C moves to 01APR11 from 01SEP10 (7 months)
EB3-I moves to 08JAN04 (1 week)
EB3-C retrogresses to 01JAN11 from 22OCT11
EB3-WW moves to 01OCT14 (4 months)

[Jagan01]

The fact that EB2I is moving forward - means that there isn't enough porting demand to consume regular ~300/month quota. EB2I is not consuming any spillover right now - so I guess it's a good thing that it is moving on its own. We should still expect *some* jump sometime in late summer.

Assuming another 8 months in May (01APR08), 8 months in June (01DEC08) - after that depends on whether we have spillover and how much.

The EB2C to EB3C downgrade finally caught up to with EB3C's quota it seems.

You need to consider the fact that increase in demand due to porting is a factor of VB dates.
Prior to Aug 2007 --> almost 0 porting
Aug 2007 to Jun 2008 --> When date will start moving in this range there will be some increase in porting
Jun 2008 to May 2009 --> more increase in porting

I would think the following:
May (01 Mar 2008)
June (01 July 2008)
July (01 Dec 2008)

Aug and Sep will see increase in supply (due to spillover) and demand (due to porting).

[lilstud2007]

My PD is 11/11/2009.

Silly question - but would it make sense to do the medical in June/July in anticipation that I will receive the RFE later this year and it can be submitted quickly?

[zenmaster]

My PD is 11/11/2009.

Silly question - but would it make sense to do the medical in June/July in anticipation that I will receive the RFE later this year and it can be submitted quickly?

No. it wont make sense. Please refer to Spec's reply on this few posts earlier..
Suggest you just wait it out. There is no quick way out.

[self.coach]

IMDENG,

I have a simple question. PD is Aug 2009 - should I give up hope that I will not get GreenCard in 2014? I ask this because I plan to change jobs, have already filed AC21 once and dread filing another one in a year's time. Not really sure if I should wait this storm out (because of possibility of GC in 2014) or move on like I have done in the past. Your response will keep me from going into some kind of crazy depression and indecision phase.


The fact that EB2I is moving forward - means that there isn't enough porting demand to consume regular ~300/month quota. EB2I is not consuming any spillover right now - so I guess it's a good thing that it is moving on its own. We should still expect *some* jump sometime in late summer.

Assuming another 8 months in May (01APR08), 8 months in June (01DEC08) - after that depends on whether we have spillover and how much.

The EB2C to EB3C downgrade finally caught up to with EB3C's quota it seems.

[imdeng]

Self - You asked me so I will put my thoughts on paper - although I really have no more information/insight than anyone else here.

I agonized over a career move earlier this year, just like you are doing right now. Finally, I decided to consider GC as just the background process that we have no influence on and leverage EAD to switch jobs. As Q (and I) have been saying to everyone - one should do what is best for one's career without worrying about the GC process. The GC process will sort itself out, in time. There is no point in obsessing about it. I am mildly optimistic for our chances this year (2015, not 2014 :-)) - but I have told myself that I will not be super bummed if it does not happen. Just renew EAD/AP and continue on with rest of life.

If I were you, I would do the job change if it makes sense for your career, irrespective of the GC process. Most of us have lived/worked in the country for 10+ years. We have skill, experience, network, etc to hopefully take care of whatever curve ball gets thrown our way. We feel ourselves to be helpless against the GC process - but I tell myself that we are not - we should keep our noses clean, get our job done and follow the best career opportunities - and let the GC drama play itself out.


IMDENG,

I have a simple question. PD is Aug 2009 - should I give up hope that I will not get GreenCard in 2014? I ask this because I plan to change jobs, have already filed AC21 once and dread filing another one in a year's time. Not really sure if I should wait this storm out (because of possibility of GC in 2014) or move on like I have done in the past. Your response will keep me from going into some kind of crazy depression and indecision phase.

[sportsfan33]

IMDENG,

I have a simple question. PD is Aug 2009 - should I give up hope that I will not get GreenCard in 2014? I ask this because I plan to change jobs, have already filed AC21 once and dread filing another one in a year's time. Not really sure if I should wait this storm out (because of possibility of GC in 2014) or move on like I have done in the past. Your response will keep me from going into some kind of crazy depression and indecision phase.

Q, imdeng, and many others have always said "put your career ahead of the GC".

I changed jobs on EAD. I got my GC last year.

Opportunities don't come along often. The earlier you move, the better it is for your career.

Your PD should be current this year, and you should get an RFE for the EVL anyway. Just send your new job papers at that time. There is no empirical evidence that being at the current job gives you GC any faster. From all anecdotal evidence, the IOs are probably assuming jobs have changed (or at the very least responsibilities have changed) for long pending 485s. They will review your EVL afresh. That's my impression.

[iatiam]

IMDENG,

I have a simple question. PD is Aug 2009 - should I give up hope that I will not get GreenCard in 2014? I ask this because I plan to change jobs, have already filed AC21 once and dread filing another one in a year's time. Not really sure if I should wait this storm out (because of possibility of GC in 2014) or move on like I have done in the past. Your response will keep me from going into some kind of crazy depression and indecision phase.

Self Coach,

I agree (partially) with Deng and Sportsfan. My PD is close to yours and there was a time during November 2011 that I had a "moment" and decided to look for jobs. I hadn't filed for 485 yet, but was really frustrated at work. This was a time when dates were moving, but no one could fathom that it would go as much as 2010. I did get a few offers, but nothing to my satisfaction. So I decided to stay put. Thankfully, within a few months my PD became current and I switched jobs after 180 days. There was more flexibility and more freedom and of course less risk.

I changed jobs again after 7 months because I hated the new job from day 1 onwards. Used AC21 both times. I have also met people who have changed jobs several times. Many 2007 fiasco EB3 filers have changed jobs multiple times.

Of course I haven't got my GC yet, so I can't tell what it entails to have changed jobs when 485 is pending. I am guessing EVL is a fairly common RFE, though my attorney says many times they don't ask for it especially if you have filed AC21.

So as long as your are changing jobs 180 days after filing 485, you should be OK.

Good luck to You, Deng and me and several others who are eagerly waiting for SO season

Iatiam

[self.coach]

Self Coach,

I agree (partially) with Deng and Sportsfan. My PD is close to yours and there was a time during November 2011 that I had a "moment" and decided to look for jobs. I hadn't filed for 485 yet, but was really frustrated at work. This was a time when dates were moving, but no one could fathom that it would go as much as 2010. I did get a few offers, but nothing to my satisfaction. So I decided to stay put. Thankfully, within a few months my PD became current and I switched jobs after 180 days. There was more flexibility and more freedom and of course less risk.

I changed jobs again after 7 months because I hated the new job from day 1 onwards. Used AC21 both times. I have also met people who have changed jobs several times. Many 2007 fiasco EB3 filers have changed jobs multiple times.

Of course I haven't got my GC yet, so I can't tell what it entails to have changed jobs when 485 is pending. I am guessing EVL is a fairly common RFE, though my attorney says many times they don't ask for it especially if you have filed AC21.

So as long as your are changing jobs 180 days after filing 485, you should be OK.

Good luck to You, Deng and me and several others who are eagerly waiting for SO season

Iatiam

Thanks guys. Very valuable advice. I was not aware that multiple AC21s do not affect the GC file. Btw IMDENG I am now realizing it is 2015 already....I was hoping for the GC in 2014!

[Spectator]

From Ron Gotcher's Site http://www.immigration-information.com This is the Post. (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/some-interesting-visa-office-updates.17812/)


Some Interesting Visa Office Updates

In their most recent conversation with Charlie Oppenheim of the Visa Office, AILA liaison commented, in part, as follows:

EB-2 India.

After advancing 16 months in March 2015, EB-2 India will advance another eight months in April, to September 1, 2007. Members can expect EB-2 India to continue to advance at a steady pace for another couple of months before slowing or holding toward the end of the fiscal year.
. . .
What will it take for there to be movement in EB-3 India?

At this time, there is nothing which can be done to improve the India EB-3 cut-off date situation unless there is a legislative change. The amount of pre-adjudicated India EB-3 demand versus the annual limit prevents more than a one or two week monthly movement of this cut-off date. For example, at this time, more than 9,100 India EB-3 applicants with priority dates earlier than January 1, 2005 (alone) have already been reported to the visa Office and the FY2015 annual limit is approximately 2,875.

Do you foresee EB-3 Worldwide becoming current anytime soon? If so, what would that mean for EB-3 India?

Charlie does not anticipate that EB-3 Worldwide will become current anytime soon but the cut-off date could easily reach 2015. If the Worldwide EB-3 category ever becomes current then (and only then) any "otherwise unused" numbers could be made available to the India EB-3 category, which has the earliest EB-3 cut-off date.

In his Executive Actions on Immigration, President Obama directed DOS and USCIS to work on a system to alleviate the visa backlogs. Have any steps been taken to effectuate the intent of the President?

Yes. One example is having advanced the cut-off dates at a more rapid pace, and much earlier, than in previous years.​


Ron

James Ronald Gotcher
Global Immigration Partners
22775 Malibu Hills Road, Suite 150
Calabasas Hills, CA 91301
Tel: 818-914-6482
Fax: 818-475-3450

Inquiries@GotcherLaw.com


I'm somewhat surprised by some of those answers.

The Oh Law Firm (http://www.immigration-law.com/) has this rather brief summary:


03/18/2015: State Department Prediction of Visa Bulletin Movement Post April 2015

According to the AILA, Mr. Charles Oppenheim predicts the following:


India EB-2: It will continue to advance at a steady pace for another two months before slow down or holding toards the end of this fiscal year (09/30/2015)
India EB-3: Just one or two weeks movement per month
China EB-2: Some movement may be possibe, but should excessive demand takes place, some move-back can be considered.
China EB-3: Not too promising.
China EB-5: Retrogession in June or earlier.
Worldwide EB-3: Another big move ahead in May. However, may not see "current" within this fiscal year.


Overall, somewhat disappointing, but better than regrogression!

[amulchandra]

From Ron Gotcher's Site http://www.immigration-information.com This is the Post. (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/some-interesting-visa-office-updates.17812/)



I'm somewhat surprised by some of those answers.

So basically he is saying no SO for EB 3 I. I am surprised to hear that EB 3 Row will not be current this year. It is already technically current.

[gcq]

From Ron Gotcher's Site http://www.immigration-information.com This is the Post. (http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/some-interesting-visa-office-updates.17812/)



I'm somewhat surprised by some of those answers.

He is never consistent across his different meetings. Regarding EB3 situation, why is EB3 ROW advancing so fast in the past couple of months if there was demand in that category ? For me it sounds like he is going to waste EB3 visas by not doing FA to EB3I.

[imdeng]

This is surprising. There is broad consensus that there isn't much demand left in EB3 for this FY beyond the current PD. Perhaps he is hedging any possibility of greater migration of EB2ROW applications to EB3ROW. Even then, this migrations should not have any appreciable effect in the current FY.

Considering that there is a 5 months left in this FY beyond the Apr VB, I don't see how EB3ROW will not become current. It would be a travesty if CO is late in making EB3ROW current and consequently is late in sending RFEs to EB3I and ends up wasting visa numbers. We are not out of time yet but soon will be there.

Update: Last Inventory: EB1ROW 12.5K, EB2ROW 18K, EB3ROW 8K. There is no way that EB3ROW will not get current this FY without wasting visa numbers.


So basically he is saying no SO for EB 3 I. I am surprised to hear that EB 3 Row will not be current this year. It is already technically current.

[amulchandra]

This is surprising. There is broad consensus that there isn't much demand left in EB3 for this FY beyond the current PD. Perhaps he is hedging any possibility of greater migration of EB2ROW applications to EB3ROW. Even then, this migrations should not have any appreciable effect in the current FY.

Considering that there is a 5 months left in this FY beyond the Apr VB, I don't see how EB3ROW will not become current. It would be a travesty if CO is late in making EB3ROW current and consequently is late in sending RFEs to EB3I and ends up wasting visa numbers. We are not out of time yet but soon will be there.

Update: Last Inventory: EB1ROW 12.5K, EB2ROW 18K, EB3ROW 8K. There is no way that EB3ROW will not get current this FY without wasting visa numbers.

May be CO is extremely cautious and doesn't want to make any predictions. In my opinion things might be different as we move closer to the last quarter and he might progress EB3 I dates.

Thanks
Amul

[gcq]

May be CO is extremely cautious and doesn't want to make any predictions. In my opinion things might be different as we move closer to the last quarter and he might progress EB3 I dates.

Thanks
Amul


Is there a possibility that there is demand from consulates for EB3 visas which we are not aware of ?

[amulchandra]

Is there a possibility that there is demand from consulates for EB3 visas which we are not aware of ?

I don't think PERM filings show that much excessive demand. So consular processing might not be the case. But I would like to hear from the gurus here what they think.

[Spectator]

Is there a possibility that there is demand from consulates for EB3 visas which we are not aware of ?gcq,

That's always a possibility, but I have considered the historical % of CP. The figures for ROW are shown below:

FY2014 - 11.70%
FY2013 - 13.08%
FY2012 - 14.27%
FY2011 - 19.21%
FY2010 - 11.70%

Philippines does, historically have very high CP % (40-60%), but the numbers are ultimately limited by reaching the overall 7% limit. Philippines used 5.7k EB3 visas last FY, but possible extra usage in EB2-P this FY suggests that number will not be exceeded, or may be slightly less.

Mexico has ranged from 5-10% CP cases. They've used 3-4k total EB3 visas per FY since the EB3-M COD caught up with ROW. Again, ultimately, EB3-M use is eventually limited by the overall 7% limit.

The November 2014 Immigrant Visa Applicants Report (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingListItem.pdf) from DOS doesn't suggest anything extraordinary from ROW.

[gcq]

Thanks for the explanation spec, amulchandra

[krishn]

the perm data suggests that there will be less demand for eb3 row 485's than its yearly quota , why is the CO/USCIS/DoS unable to see this ?

[ROCK72]

That's because (USCIS/DOS) they do a poor job of forecasting. For eg, please look at July 2013 VB, where they predict only 3 weeks movement for EB3I in Q4 but actually there is 8 months movement in Sep 2013 VB as a precedent....

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2013/visa-bulletin-for-july-2013.html

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2013/visa-bulletin-for-september-2013.html

[amulchandra]

That's because (USCIS/DOS) they do a poor job of forecasting. For eg, please look at July 2013 VB, where they predict only 3 weeks movement for EB3I in Q4 but actually there is 8 months movement in Sep 2013 VB as a precedent....

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2013/visa-bulletin-for-july-2013.html

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2013/visa-bulletin-for-september-2013.html
Exactly that is what I was going to say. Most of the times USCIS is very bad at estimating the demand. They procrastinate a lot till the end of the FY.

Initially I was little disheartened when I saw the AILA update but my past experience says that the gurus here are far better and have a greater understanding about demand estimation than USCIS.

I still think that EB3 I is going to get some reasonable SO this year.

[krishn]

may be uscis inventory due in april will show the reality for eb3row demand. USCIS/CO/DoS have not completely utilized the EB3 quota for past years, hope they wont go waste again this year

[Nishant_imt]

My dates became current sometime in august last year. I got the RFE on July 7, and anticipating the RFE, i got everything ready by July 5th. I get the RFE on july 7th and by July 9th, my RFE is received at USCIS. The wait for GC began on 1st of September and i was happy that i have 2 months... guess what, on october 8th they issued me another RFE and that arrived on October 23rd. Exactly the same RFE, medical & letter of employment. My doctor issued the medical again on the same day since it was under 3 month time frame and filed immediately again. October 29th, they changed the status that response is received...... but demise of my hopes, october 31st retrogression hits....

I don't know if it was me being proactive or USCIS being just not doing its job. But take a deep breath and go with the flow. Don't do anything in anticipation.




My PD is 11/11/2009.

Silly question - but would it make sense to do the medical in June/July in anticipation that I will receive the RFE later this year and it can be submitted quickly?

[iatiam]

Spec, Q and Suva,

Appreciate all your feedback.

Spec,

From what you wrote, the only SO to EB2I will be from EB2ROW, EB2M and EB2P. Is that correct? At this point in time, is it possible to narrow-down the SO numbers? I know you said 10k to 15k earlier. Does it look too much now?

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Spec, Q and Suva,

Appreciate all your feedback.

Spec,

From what you wrote, the only SO to EB2I will be from EB2ROW, EB2M and EB2P. Is that correct? At this point in time, is it possible to narrow-down the SO numbers? I know you said 10k to 15k earlier. Does it look too much now?

IatiamIatam,

I don't really see any reason to change my original thoughts. I wouldn't currently lower the numbers.

EB1 might give some Fall Down, but I don't think it will be much.

EB5 is not going to provide any extra numbers to EB1. That is absolutely clear. EB5-China will become retrogressed within the next 2 VB, meaning all EB5 visas will be used.

In a Murthy article (http://www.murthy.com/2014/10/08/visa-bulletin-predictions-for-coming-months/) from October 2014, CO said that EB4 was seeing increased demand and that a Cut Off Date might be necessary eventually (but that might be FY2016). EB4 saw a 28.5% increase in approvals in FY2014 to 8.3k compared to FY2013.

I don't currently see EB1 usage being drastically different to that seen in FY2014.

The lower number of unused FB visas available to EB in FY2015 (4k vs 11k in FY2014) means 4k less would be available to EB2-I in FY2015 if the same approval numbers as FY2014 were seen.

EB2-I received about 1.4k more visa numbers in FY2014 than SO allowed. Whether that happens again is open to speculation.

That would already reduce the numbers available to EB2-I from 23.5k to around 18k.

EB2-WW approvals in FY2014 were almost certainly artificially low (22k) in FY2014 due to the corresponding preceding period having very low PERM approvals. PERM approvals have increased (substantially) in the period that are likely to yield FY2015 I-485 approvals for EB2-WW. That is going to lead to higher EB2-WW approvals this year. Based on Trackitt figures, EB2-ROW has already surpassed the number of approvals seen by the end of May last year. Trackitt really doesn't have sufficient information to judge what EB2-MP might be doing. That is despite a considerable slowing of I-485 adjudication times. It's not clear what the final EB2-WW usage might be - it may be subject to external factors outside just the number of pending applications.

Let's just wait and see.

[Spectator]

I post this only as a "fun fact", since it is for a single quarter only.

Below shows a comparison of Citizenship vs Birth Country for PERM certification in Q1 FY2015.

------------ Citizenship --- Birth - % Diff
China ------------ 1,305 --- 1,429 -- +9.5%
India ------------ 9,176 --- 9,209 -- +0.4%
Mexico ------------- 299 ----- 295 -- -1.3%
Philippines -------- 307 ----- 316 -- +2.9%
ROW -------------- 5,105 --- 4,943 -- -3.2%

ALL ------------- 16,192 -- 16,192

Perhaps not unsurprisingly, Citizens of Canada appear to be the most likely to have a different Country of Birth. Of 857 cases having a different Country of Birth, 414 had Canadian Citizenship (48%). Of these, 103 were born in China (25%), 65 were born in India (15.5%), 2 were born in Philippines (0.5%) and 244 were born in another ROW Country (59%).

Country of Citizenship data comes from the OFLC Quarterly Disclosure Data.
Country of Birth data comes from PermChecker.com who extract it from the ETA9089

[Spectator]

My best stab at a comparison of PERM Certifications between FY2014 and FY2015 for Q2 and H1 (Q1/Q2).

-------------- FY14 Q2 - FY15 Q2 - % of FY14
China ---------- 1,188 --- 1,645 ---- 138%
India ---------- 9,446 -- 12,611 ---- 134%
Mexico ----------- 321 ----- 386 ---- 120%
Philippines ------ 474 ----- 319 ----- 67%
ROW ------------ 5,679 --- 5,217 ----- 92%

ALL ----------- 17,108 -- 20,178 ---- 118%


-------------- FY14 H1 - FY15 H1 - % of FY14
China ---------- 1,829 --- 3,074 ---- 168%
India --------- 14,522 -- 21,820 ---- 150%
Mexico ----------- 602 ----- 681 ---- 113%
Philippines ------ 684 ----- 635 ----- 93%
ROW ------------ 8,535 -- 10,160 ---- 119%

ALL ----------- 26,172 -- 36,370 ---- 139%


This is a comparison of the preceding rolling yearly PERM Certification numbers for the preceding year and this year i.e. Q3 FY2013 to Q2 FY2014 and Q3 FY2014 to Q2 FY2015.

------------- H2FY13/H1FY14 -- H2FY14/H1FY15 - %
China ---------- 2,631 ---------- 5,822 ----- 221%
India --------- 23,099 --------- 42,390 ----- 184%
Mexico ----------- 861 ---------- 1,374 ----- 160%
Philippines ---- 1,056 ---------- 1,453 ----- 138%
ROW ----------- 12,600 --------- 21,792 ----- 173%

ALL ----------- 40,247 --------- 72,831 ----- 181%

[redwood]

Thanks Spec for the report.

The pace of PERM certifications is certainly a downer for EB2I. The EB2ROW 485 approvals also seem to have almost doubled recently as seen from your trackitt comparison thread.

R

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for the report.

The pace of PERM certifications is certainly a downer for EB2I. The EB2ROW 485 approvals also seem to have almost doubled recently as seen from your trackitt comparison thread.

Rredwood,

Unfortunately, that was always likely to happen, given the PERM certification pattern. Last year's approvals were abnormally low because of that.

On the positive side for EB2-I, the I-485 approval time seems to have increased, which will partly offset the the higher numbers.

[qesehmk]

Header updated.

Basically EB3 is showing very low demand and EB2 very high. The repurcusions are obvious. EB2I is going to get a bad deal this year. And eB3I might be in for a very nice surprise.

[aquatican]

Hello Q,
can you elaborate more on how "bad" the deal could be?
Will we cross May 2009 PD ( From Last Year) or not even get to that?




Header updated.

Basically EB3 is showing very low demand and EB2 very high. The repurcusions are obvious. EB2I is going to get a bad deal this year. And eB3I might be in for a very nice surprise.

[qesehmk]

Hello Q,
can you elaborate more on how "bad" the deal could be?
Will we cross May 2009 PD ( From Last Year) or not even get to that?
aquatian - I hope I am wrong. But I believe we will not cross that.

[aquatican]

That is so disappointing. I was hoping to get EAD this year ( PD Jun 19 , 2009 ).
I guess it will be very clear by next couple of bulletins and Inventory release how far into 2009 ( If at all) the PD is going to go this year.


aquatian - I hope I am wrong. But I believe we will not cross that.

[qesehmk]

That is so disappointing. I was hoping to get EAD this year ( PD Jun 19 , 2009 ).
I guess it will be very clear by next couple of bulletins and Inventory release how far into 2009 ( If at all) the PD is going to go this year.
Now that nobody knows. DOS can still move dates back and forth violently just to take a fresh intake of applications even if they do not have the numbers to justify the movement.

So I wouldn't rule that out. I was only talking about ability to get a GC.

[saagar_is_cool]

aquatian - I hope I am wrong. But I believe we will not cross that.

Q, I don't understand fully. Do you mean to say that even May 1 2009 will not be met this year. Mine is April 17 2009 and I filed 485 last year and was hoping to get GC this year. Is there a possibility that May 2009 will also not hit this year?

[qesehmk]

Q, I don't understand fully. Do you mean to say that even May 1 2009 will not be met this year. Mine is April 17 2009 and I filed 485 last year and was hoping to get GC this year. Is there a possibility that May 2009 will also not hit this year?
Sagar dates hitting May 2009 doesn't guarantee a GC. They should hit there and stay for 3-4 months at least. So I do not believe that's going to happen.

I am sorry but the key reason why I think that's how it will be is that EB2ROW is on a tear. 160-170% increase in consumption compared to last year. So EB2I is only going to depend on EB1 / 4 / 5 - none of which I am very hopeful about.

[suninphx]

Sagar dates hitting May 2009 doesn't guarantee a GC. They should hit there and stay for 3-4 months at least. So I do not believe that's going to happen.

I am sorry but the key reason why I think that's how it will be is that EB2ROW is on a tear. 160-170% increase in consumption compared to last year. So EB2I is only going to depend on EB1 / 4 / 5 - none of which I am very hopeful about.

160-170% increase - based on trackitt data or some other source?

[redwood]

Sagar dates hitting May 2009 doesn't guarantee a GC. They should hit there and stay for 3-4 months at least. So I do not believe that's going to happen.

I am sorry but the key reason why I think that's how it will be is that EB2ROW is on a tear. 160-170% increase in consumption compared to last year. So EB2I is only going to depend on EB1 / 4 / 5 - none of which I am very hopeful about.

Last year EB2ROW used 19K GC's even with 160% increase, it will be 31K EB2ROW + 3K EB2C = 34k and EB2I will still receive (41 - 34) 7K+ from EB2 quota. If we do get some spillover which we should EB2I will receive 10-12K GC's. ( I think 160% increase is the worst case scenario but cannot be ruled out).

The good thing is EB3I will move substantially this year and next and will provide some relief to EB2I.

[Spectator]

Last year EB2ROW used 19K GC's even with 160% increase, it will be 31K EB2ROW + 3K EB2C = 34k and EB2I will still receive (41 - 34) 7K+ from EB2 quota. If we do get some spillover which we should EB2I will receive 10-12K GC's. ( I think 160% increase is the worst case scenario but cannot be ruled out).

The good thing is EB3I will move substantially this year and next and will provide some relief to EB2I.That 19 k was for EB2-ROW alone, which does not count use by Mexico and Philippines.

EB2-WW (EB2-non IC) used 22k last year.

[suninphx]

Last year EB2ROW used 19K GC's even with 160% increase, it will be 31K EB2ROW + 3K EB2C = 34k and EB2I will still receive (41 - 34) 7K+ from EB2 quota. If we do get some spillover which we should EB2I will receive 10-12K GC's. ( I think 160% increase is the worst case scenario but cannot be ruled out).

The good thing is EB3I will move substantially this year and next and will provide some relief to EB2I.

Plus I am assuming 160% increase is based on trackitt data. So I would not take that dollar to dollar.
IMO- EB2I will most certainly hit Q3 2009 if not more. How many of those get GC this year is a different discussion.

[suninphx]

My best stab at a comparison of PERM Certifications between FY2014 and FY2015 for Q2 and H1 (Q1/Q2).

-------------- FY14 Q2 - FY15 Q2 - % of FY14
China ---------- 1,188 --- 1,645 ---- 138%
India ---------- 9,446 -- 12,611 ---- 134%
Mexico ----------- 321 ----- 386 ---- 120%
Philippines ------ 474 ----- 319 ----- 67%
ROW ------------ 5,679 --- 5,217 ----- 92%

ALL ----------- 17,108 -- 20,178 ---- 118%


-------------- FY14 H1 - FY15 H1 - % of FY14
China ---------- 1,829 --- 3,074 ---- 168%
India --------- 14,522 -- 21,820 ---- 150%
Mexico ----------- 602 ----- 681 ---- 113%
Philippines ------ 684 ----- 635 ----- 93%
ROW ------------ 8,535 -- 10,160 ---- 119%

ALL ----------- 26,172 -- 36,370 ---- 139%


This is a comparison of the preceding rolling yearly PERM Certification numbers for the preceding year and this year i.e. Q3 FY2013 to Q2 FY2014 and Q3 FY2014 to Q2 FY2015.

------------- H2FY13/H1FY14 -- H2FY14/H1FY15 - %
China ---------- 2,631 ---------- 5,822 ----- 221%
India --------- 23,099 --------- 42,390 ----- 184%
Mexico ----------- 861 ---------- 1,374 ----- 160%
Philippines ---- 1,056 ---------- 1,453 ----- 138%
ROW ----------- 12,600 --------- 21,792 ----- 173%

ALL ----------- 40,247 --------- 72,831 ----- 181%


Thanks Spec!

Any pointers about change in EB2:EB3 mix(ROW)? Do you think rapid EB3-ROW movement might have changed mix by a fair percentage?

[qesehmk]

160-170% increase - based on trackitt data or some other source?
Trackitt as well as PERM.

[redwood]

That 19 k was for EB2-ROW alone, which does not count use by Mexico and Philippines.

EB2-WW (EB2-non IC) used 22k last year.

Thanks for the clarification, Spec. Oh well, this is the armageddon scenario we have been dreading but have been dodging all these years. I guess if PERM doesn't slow down considerably or some legislative relief, this is the likely scenario every year. Absent that lets hope relief comes from major EB3I spillover and EB2I folks downgrading to EB3I.

[saagar_is_cool]

Sagar dates hitting May 2009 doesn't guarantee a GC. They should hit there and stay for 3-4 months at least. So I do not believe that's going to happen.

I am sorry but the key reason why I think that's how it will be is that EB2ROW is on a tear. 160-170% increase in consumption compared to last year. So EB2I is only going to depend on EB1 / 4 / 5 - none of which I am very hopeful about.

Q, I am not sure if I am missing something here. If the date hits May 2009 in June/July and stays current for about 3 months, why would I not get a GC, assuming there are no RFE's. For first time filers, I can understand but if I filed in last September, is there a reason why GC wont come. Is there something one can do to influence the movement - Senator/congressman, Ombudsman, SR etc. ?

[qesehmk]

if the date hits May 2009 in June/July and stays current for about 3 months, then you have a good chance. Yes.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec!

Any pointers about change in EB2:EB3 mix(ROW)? Do you think rapid EB3-ROW movement might have changed mix by a fair percentage?suninphx,

Good question!

The honest answer is that I don't know. The information available isn't that good.

Possibly an analysis of the Employer/Job in PERM or the PWD data might shed some light on it, but I haven't done that.

I wouldn't be surprised if the EB3-M numbers have shifted towards EB3. There also has to be a danger that EB3-P numbers will ramp up now that the dates are effectively Current and the wait times are fairly short. That generally wouldn't show in the PERM figures, since the highest demand will be from Schedule A nurses and PT. With shorter wait times, the abandonment rate for EB3-P will probably drop.

I'm not sure whether that will effect this FY or not.

The USCIS Inventory data will become less useful for determining EB3-WW numbers. The I-140 needs to be approved for the I-485 to be included in the figures, so increasingly, cases won't show.

Trackitt data (I know you aren't a great fan) suggests EB3-ROW approvals have reached a PD of about Sept 2012 (with a couple of later outliers). That's only where the COD was in the April/May 2014 VB , before retrogression. The COD only moved past that again in November 2014. I-485 seem to be taking about 7 months to approve at this point. That's possibly why we are seeing a lull in EB3-ROW approvals currently.

I'm a little more optimistic than some others and there is still almost half the year to go. That said, I don't believe it will be a particularly good year for EB2-I.

[amulchandra]

Header updated.

Basically EB3 is showing very low demand and EB2 very high. The repurcusions are obvious. EB2I is going to get a bad deal this year. And eB3I might be in for a very nice surprise.

Hi Q,

Any hint how much SO EB3I might receive? Any guesstimate? Really appreciate your analysis.

Thanks
Amul

[4WatItsWorth]

Sagar dates hitting May 2009 doesn't guarantee a GC. They should hit there and stay for 3-4 months at least. So I do not believe that's going to happen.

I am sorry but the key reason why I think that's how it will be is that EB2ROW is on a tear. 160-170% increase in consumption compared to last year. So EB2I is only going to depend on EB1 / 4 / 5 - none of which I am very hopeful about.i know that at one point it was said that the eb2-I dates should (could?) go to Q4 2009. Is that not looking possible now? My PD is 30Oct2009. I am asking because of being selfish and trying to see if I can at least get a chance to file 485 this year.

It is frustrating that it is not even PD+6 years anymore.

[qesehmk]

Hi Q,

Any hint how much SO EB3I might receive? Any guesstimate? Really appreciate your analysis.

Thanks
Amul
I do not do manual calculations anymore Amul. So the honest answer is i don't know unless I login to whereismygc and run a scenario for EB3I.

But looking at the macro picture I am very comfortable in predicting that EB3I dates are going to move like never before. The movement we have seen is just scratching the surface!


It is frustrating that it is not even PD+6 years anymore.

There is a reason why it has come to that. And the reason is - over years EB3ROW demand has shifted to EB2ROW. And so has a lot of EB3I demand. Thus EB2 is getting clobbered while EB3 is getting into a good spot.

[amulchandra]

I do not do manual calculations anymore Amul. So the honest answer is i don't know unless I login to whereismygc and run a scenario for EB3I.

But looking at the macro picture I am very comfortable in predicting that EB3I dates are going to move like never before. The movement we have seen is just scratching the surface!


Thanks a lot Q. Hope your words come true! I think we have to wait till June/July for this movement to materialize.

Regards
Amul

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Good question!

The honest answer is that I don't know. The information available isn't that good.

Possibly an analysis of the Employer/Job in PERM or the PWD data might shed some light on it, but I haven't done that.

I wouldn't be surprised if the EB3-M numbers have shifted towards EB3. There also has to be a danger that EB3-P numbers will ramp up now that the dates are effectively Current and the wait times are fairly short. That generally wouldn't show in the PERM figures, since the highest demand will be from Schedule A nurses and PT. With shorter wait times, the abandonment rate for EB3-P will probably drop.

I'm not sure whether that will effect this FY or not.

The USCIS Inventory data will become less useful for determining EB3-WW numbers. The I-140 needs to be approved for the I-485 to be included in the figures, so increasingly, cases won't show.

Trackitt data (I know you aren't a great fan) suggests EB3-ROW approvals have reached a PD of about Sept 2012 (with a couple of later outliers). That's only where the COD was in the April/May 2014 VB , before retrogression. The COD only moved past that again in November 2014. I-485 seem to be taking about 7 months to approve at this point. That's possibly why we are seeing a lull in EB3-ROW approvals currently.

I'm a little more optimistic than some others and there is still almost half the year to go. That said, I don't believe it will be a particularly good year for EB2-I.

Thanks for detailed reply Spec! helps to put things in perspective.

[bluelabel]

Looks like EB2I is not going to receive many spill overs this year. How will next FY for EB2 ROW? Because EB3 ROW is almost current, will demand in EB2 ROW go down drastically and help EB2I? I hope between Oct 2015 and Dec 2015, EB2I will move into 2010s for inventory build.

[Spectator]

The Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2015 document (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf) has been updated today.

It now shows the estimated EB Annual Limit as 144,730 (in line with expectations).

EB1 ---- 41,394
EB2 ---- 41,393
EB3 ---- 41.393
EB4 ---- 10,275
EB5 ---- 10,275

Total - 144,730

The 7% limit within EB becomes 10,131 for all Countries other than China, where it is 9,131 because of the provisions in the Chinese Student Protection Act (700 less in EB5 and 300 less in EB3).

[jackbrown_890]

Someone on trackitt EB2I -PD dec09 reported RFE notice. Don't know how it is possible.S/he did not receive medical in 2014. Let's wait and see bulletine on Monday.

The Annual Numerical Limits for Fiscal Year 2015 document (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf) has been updated today.

It now shows the estimated EB Annual Limit as 144,730 (in line with expectations).

EB1 ---- 41,394
EB2 ---- 41,393
EB3 ---- 41.393
EB4 ---- 10,275
EB5 ---- 10,275

Total - 144,730

The 7% limit within EB becomes 10,131 for all Countries other than China, where it is 9,131 because of the provisions in the Chinese Student Protection Act (700 less in EB5 and 300 less in EB3).

[Spectator]

The May VB is out.

EB2-I - 15APR08
EB2-C - 01JUN12

EB5-C - 01MAY13

EB3-ROW/M - 01JAN15
EB3-P - 01JUL07
EB3-I - 15JAN04


D. OVERSUBSCRIPTION OF THE CHINA-mainland born
EMPLOYMENT FIFTH PREFERENCE CATEGORY

Heavy applicant demand has required the implementation of an Employment Fifth preference cut-off date to hold number use within the maximum level of numbers which may be made available for use by such applicants during FY-2015. No specific prediction regarding movement of this date is possible at present. Future visa availability will depend on a combination of demand for numbers being reported each month, and the extent to which otherwise unused numbers may become available. An increase in visa demand by applicants with relatively early priority dates COULD make necessary a retrogression of this cut-off date prior to the end of the fiscal year; retrogression is NOT being predicted but it cannot be ruled out. It is extremely likely that this category will remain subject to a cut-off date indefinitely.



E. PHILIPPINES VISA AVAILABILITY

Employment Third preference:

This cut-off date had also been advanced very rapidly in an effort to generate sufficient demand to fully utilize all available numbers. The current rate of increase in demand has required the retrogression of this cut-off date for the month of May, in an attempt to hold number use within the annual limit for this preference category.

[Spectator]

I would say that such severe retrogression of EB3-Philippines (7 years +) means they have pretty much reached the number of visas CO is prepared to allocate this FY.

That is mirrored by approvals in Trackitt (although it is such a low number as to be insignificant).

[qesehmk]

I would say that such severe retrogression of EB3-Philippines (6 years +) means they have pretty much reached the number of visas CO is prepared to allocate this FY.

That is mirrored by approvals in Trackitt (although it is such a low number as to be insignificant).
Spec ... this means EB3P NVC demand has finally caught up.

But I believe this shouldn't affect EB3I's prospects this year which look pretty good to me.

[Spectator]

Spec ... this means EB3P NVC demand has finally caught up.

But I believe this shouldn't affect EB3I's prospects this year which look pretty good to me.Q,

I agree.

EB3-P use is limited by reaching the overall 7% limit within EB (since they use all 7% in FB) of around 10,131.

Given likely use in other EB Categories, that shouldn't be more than about 6.5k at most within EB3. Use by EB2-P will be the biggest determinator of the actual number.

[United]

Which month do you guys think there will be spill across for EB3I ?

[civilengineer]

I was too pessimistic by 2 months, I thought it will move 6 months but it moved 8 months. My prediction for May bulletin is April 1, 2008 ( 7 months progress)

My prediction for May was off by about 15 days. June bulletin guesstimate: November 1, 2008.
Also, I think we need a prediction for when they will release the bulletin. My guess is that it should be out by May 12, Tuesday.

[imdeng]

Hmm... VBs are following the established pattern. May is probably the last month they can continue with the holding pattern. They will have to break the pattern next month.

1. EB3ROW has no place to go except "Current" now. EB3I folks will need to be issued Medical/EVL RFEs pretty soon - time is running out. This pretending by USCIS that nothing is going on in EB3 and EB3I can just continue with 1-2 week movement each month is getting a little ridiculous.
2. EB3P catchup that we have been expecting for some time has finally happened. I personally thought that much of the EB3P, especially nursing, demand has been lost due to the delay. But does not seem like - a good part seems to have survived to fill up the quota for this FY.
3. EB2C moved 14 months. Seems a little excessive. Guess inventory building is in full swing here.
4. EB2I moved 7.5 months. Seems still a bit away from the time period where they will find significant demand. After 8 months last bulletin, I guess 7 months for next bulletin (15-NOV-08 for June), then 6.5 months after that (01-JUN-08 for July) - after that guess depends on spillover.

So well - nothing much in this VB. Hope next one is more note-worthy.


The May VB is out.

EB2-I - 15APR08
EB2-C - 01JUN12

EB5-C - 01MAY13

EB3-ROW/M - 01JAN15
EB3-P - 01JUL07
EB3-I - 15JAN04

[4WatItsWorth]

7 months for next bulletin (15-NOV-08 for June), then 6.5 months after that (01-JUN-08 for July)I think that you mean 01-May-09, right? Isn't that (or close) where we were last year? That is terrible! Is it possible that the spillover could give eb2-I at least six months net movement to 01-Nov-2009 in August? Otherwise, it is just a pendulum. And any guesses what follows August, retrogression -- despite this year's steady movement? Sorry, for asking so many questions.

[Suva2001]

1. EB3ROW has no place to go except "Current" now. EB3I folks will need to be issued Medical/EVL RFEs pretty soon - time is running out. This pretending by USCIS that nothing is going on in EB3 and EB3I can just continue with 1-2 week movement each month is getting a little ridiculous.
.

Isn't same thing happened in 2013 for EB3-I? Date moved from Jan 2003 to Sep 22. It was more than 8 months movement. Did they issue EVL/RFEs 2-3 months earlier than the bulletin?

[krishn]

Isn't same thing happened in 2013 for EB3-I? Date moved from Jan 2003 to Sep 22. It was more than 8 months movement. Did they issue EVL/RFEs 2-3 months earlier than the bulletin?

yes eb3i jumped from 22jan03 to 22sept03 in sept2013 bulletin, i.e 8 months movement in sept'13 bulletin; and the mass rfe's were issued in june/july'13.

Apr i485 inventory will throw some light on future movement, while july i485 inventory will seal the year.

[imdeng]

I did mistype. 6.5 months would be 01-May-09 for July. We will still have Aug and Sep to catch any spillover. Upto 01-Nov-09 is a ready-set demand with RFEs filed already. Although many filed RFEs will start expiring July onwards.

I think that you mean 01-May-09, right? Isn't that (or close) where we were last year? That is terrible! Is it possible that the spillover could give eb2-I at least six months net movement to 01-Nov-2009 in August? Otherwise, it is just a pendulum. And any guesses what follows August, retrogression -- despite this year's steady movement? Sorry, for asking so many questions.

[4WatItsWorth]

I did mistype. 6.5 months would be 01-May-09 for July. We will still have Aug and Sep to catch any spillover. Upto 01-Nov-09 is a ready-set demand with RFEs filed already. Although many filed RFEs will start expiring July onwards.Ok, thanks. But, let me re-phrase my question. If EB2-I can go to 01-May-09 on its own, with no spillover, how far do you think it can go with whatever spillover is expected so far? How likely is it that it could reach 01-Nov-2009 by September?

[imdeng]

First - it will not reach 01-May-09 on its own considering the porting volume and the cases before 01-May-09 that did not get approved last time around. I personally do think that it will reach at least 01-Nov-09 with whatever piddly spillover we receive this year. The density between May and Nov 2009 is really low so it is not going to take too much spillover for that jump.


Ok, thanks. But, let me re-phrase my question. If EB2-I can go to 01-May-09 on its own, with no spillover, how far do you think it can go with whatever spillover is expected so far? How likely is it that it could reach 01-Nov-2009 by September?

[redsox2009]

My best stab at a comparison of PERM Certifications between FY2014 and FY2015 for Q2 and H1 (Q1/Q2).

-------------- FY14 Q2 - FY15 Q2 - % of FY14
China ---------- 1,188 --- 1,645 ---- 138%
India ---------- 9,446 -- 12,611 ---- 134%
Mexico ----------- 321 ----- 386 ---- 120%
Philippines ------ 474 ----- 319 ----- 67%
ROW ------------ 5,679 --- 5,217 ----- 92%

ALL ----------- 17,108 -- 20,178 ---- 118%


-------------- FY14 H1 - FY15 H1 - % of FY14
China ---------- 1,829 --- 3,074 ---- 168%
India --------- 14,522 -- 21,820 ---- 150%
Mexico ----------- 602 ----- 681 ---- 113%
Philippines ------ 684 ----- 635 ----- 93%
ROW ------------ 8,535 -- 10,160 ---- 119%

ALL ----------- 26,172 -- 36,370 ---- 139%


This is a comparison of the preceding rolling yearly PERM Certification numbers for the preceding year and this year i.e. Q3 FY2013 to Q2 FY2014 and Q3 FY2014 to Q2 FY2015.

------------- H2FY13/H1FY14 -- H2FY14/H1FY15 - %
China ---------- 2,631 ---------- 5,822 ----- 221%
India --------- 23,099 --------- 42,390 ----- 184%
Mexico ----------- 861 ---------- 1,374 ----- 160%
Philippines ---- 1,056 ---------- 1,453 ----- 138%
ROW ----------- 12,600 --------- 21,792 ----- 173%

ALL ----------- 40,247 --------- 72,831 ----- 181%


As per Permchecker, here are the stats. Permchecker pulls stats directly from DOL site.

-------------- FY14 H1 - FY15 H1 - % of FY14
China ---------- 1,829 --- 2,596 ---- 142%
India --------- 14,522 -- 17373 ---- 120%
Mexico ----------- 602 ----- 558 ---- 92%
Philippines ------ 684 ----- 540 ----- 79%
ROW ------------ 8,535 -- 8,941 ---- 104%
ALL ----------- 26,172 -- 30,008 ---- 115%

[Jagan01]

First - it will not reach 01-May-09 on its own considering the porting volume and the cases before 01-May-09 that did not get approved last time around. I personally do think that it will reach at least 01-Nov-09 with whatever piddly spillover we receive this year. The density between May and Nov 2009 is really low so it is not going to take too much spillover for that jump.
I think the movement will be much lesser than what you mentioned. We already have used approx 2500 of the current FY EB2I quota. So may be ~500 remaining. No spillover from EB4/EB5. EB1 might give ~500. So that is total of ~1000 visas. EB2ROW is the key and I would assume that EB2ROW would yield anywhere between 3000 to 8000. That would mean that EB2I still has another 4000 to 9000 GCs to allot.

Looking at the inventory, it is evident that 4000 would help cover demand until Feb 2009 and 9000 would cover it until Aug 2009. I think anything beyond Aug 2009 is a being insanely optimistic. Important to note that the discussion is about considering the possibility of getting GCs and not about just getting current.

[Spectator]

As per Permchecker, here are the stats. Permchecker pulls stats directly from DOL site. redsox,

Permchecker has not updated their figures for when the OFLC system was down for extended periods, so it is not capturing all the PERM Certifications.

Permchecker has no data for the period February 12 2015 to March 4 2015 inclusive and only shows 20 cases for March 5 (when there were 365). It is also missing the data for March 25 2015 to March 30 2015 inclusive.

As a result, you are missing about 6.4k certifications.

In my post, I said it was "my best stab".

My figures include those cases missing in Permchecker using a couple of cheats and an awful lot of hard work.

The period Feb 12 to Feb 28 was prorated by Country based on the % already seen in the previous period.
For the period Mar 1 to Mar 5, I went through all 1.3k ETA 9089 to extract the Country information.
For the period Mar 25 to Mar 30, most of the certifications were for CTS. I assigned all those to India. Analyzing the other CTS certifications (now nearly 5k in total) suggests that will be 98-99% accurate. I looked at the individual ETA9089 for all non-CTS cases over that period.

I can tell you - it took a very long time and was extremely boring.

I also checked the numbers against the original OFLC source. I had to add and delete a few cases since the OFLC has changed slightly since the figures were first made available. Dolstats has not done this, so the Q2 figures will vary slightly from their numbers.

[suninphx]

Spec- thanks again for all the effort and pointers.

[Spectator]

Spec- thanks again for all the effort and pointers.suninphx,

Thanks.

I don't think I would do it again. I'd just wait for the Quarterly Disclosure Data, even though that shows Nationality rather than Country of Birth.

[anuprab]

It's been a while I asked anything on this forum. From all the discussions that's been going on looks like my fate is sealed for the next 2 years. I am on EB3 with priority date of Dec 2006 and my husband is on EB2 with priority date of may 3 2010. I curse the day his lawyer messed up with his oct 2007 labor filing but this is fate I guess! My question is are there any chances for inventory build this year or next? I wouldn't care much for getting the card at this point. Experts can you throw some light. I going crazy over the past few days and don't see any positive momentum on the executive actions as well!

[Spectator]

I saw this some time ago and meant to make a comment, but it slipped my mind. I'm sure many of you are already aware of it.

In the FY 2016 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BUDGET IN BRIEF (http://www.dol.gov/dol/budget/2016/PDF/FY2016BIB.pdf) (page 27) DOL asked for the following funding for the Foreign Labor Certification programs:


For FY 2016, the Department requests $61,589,000 and 189 FTE for Federal Administration.

These resources will support the operation, management, and oversight of the Foreign Labor Certification programs. The FY 2016 request includes a one-time request for funding of $13,000,000 to support 17 Term FTE to reduce the escalating backlog of Permanent Labor Certification Program (PERM) cases. With these resources, OFLC projects that 96,450 PERM applications will be processed – a 36 percent increase from FY 2014 and over 16,000 more applications than are expected to be received in FY 2016.

The reported backlog at the end of Q1 FY2015 was 64.8k.

I thought it noteworthy, since backlog reduction efforts generally result in higher ROW certifications than normal, which could result in increased EB2 demand at a future date.

That aside, it would be great news for those people who have a PERM stuck in the backlog.

Of course, it is just a request at this stage and it may not be approved.

In recent years, the backlog reached 66.7k in FY2009 before the last reduction effort and fell as low as 20k for FY2011/FY2012, before increasing to 55-60k in FY2014.

[Spectator]

Q2 FY2015 PERM Statistics Released

They can be found here (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_SelectedStatistics_FY_2015_Q2.pdf).

PERM Received - 18,992 (27% increase on Q2 FY2014)

PERM Certified -- 20,189
PERM Denied ----- 1,333
PERM Withdrawn - 1,092

PERM Processed - 22,616

Backlog as March 31, 2015 - 61,574

Analyst Review - 59%
Audit Review - 31%
Appeal - 9%
Sponsorship/BE - 1%

[migo79]

Thank you Spec.

From this Perm data, it appear that the Visa Number race will be between India and China from now on, ROWs accounting for less than 30%
The 27% increase appear to be normal since Q2 2014 was very low. I was expecting Perm applications to increase way more than that as Economy is recovering well, but looks like this still ain't happening

[lifescrewsevery1]

I am posting here but moderators, feel free to move it, First off, I would like to appreciate all the time and efforts from the senior members of the forum for keeping tab with all the stats and calculations to give us folks a ray of hope. I have been a silent follower of the forum for quite a while now. Thank you qesehmk, spec, imdeng and others for this exceptionally informative forum.

I am in a peculiar situation and calling for opinions from the experts. I filed for my second EAD/AP renewal in Jan 2015, received by TSC on 01/12 and my application was approved on 03/16. However, it has been sitting on the approved status ever since and there is no CPO update or card in the mail yet and it's been a month since approval. I received the approval notice on 03/26. Has anyone ever experienced this kind of a scenario? USCIS keeps finding newer ways to surprise us. Well anyway, I raised an e-request last week (and was politely asked to not expect a reply from USCIS before 04/29 :-)) and I'm also in the process of reaching out to the senator. My EAD is due to expire in the first week of May and I'm starting to lose hope that I would receive the new card before the old one dies. Do you guys know if there is anything more I can do from my end to address the problem?

lifescrewsevery1

[qesehmk]

I am posting here but moderators, feel free to move it, First off, I would like to appreciate all the time and efforts from the senior members of the forum for keeping tab with all the stats and calculations to give us folks a ray of hope. I have been a silent follower of the forum for quite a while now. Thank you qesehmk, spec, imdeng and others for this exceptionally informative forum.

I am in a peculiar situation and calling for opinions from the experts. I filed for my second EAD/AP renewal in Jan 2015, received by TSC on 01/12 and my application was approved on 03/16. However, it has been sitting on the approved status ever since and there is no CPO update or card in the mail yet and it's been a month since approval. I received the approval notice on 03/26. Has anyone ever experienced this kind of a scenario? USCIS keeps finding newer ways to surprise us. Well anyway, I raised an e-request last week (and was politely asked to not expect a reply from USCIS before 04/29 :-)) and I'm also in the process of reaching out to the senator. My EAD is due to expire in the first week of May and I'm starting to lose hope that I would receive the new card before the old one dies. Do you guys know if there is anything more I can do from my end to address the problem?

lifescrewsevery1

Welcome to forum Life! First - you are good to go. Don't worry a bit. The card will come in time. Just follow up with USCIS ... call them up etc. No need for senator intervention. Did you ask USCIS (on phone call) what's the status -- if they sent it to the right address etc?

[Spectator]

Thank you Spec.

From this Perm data, it appear that the Visa Number race will be between India and China from now on, ROWs accounting for less than 30%
The 27% increase appear to be normal since Q2 2014 was very low. I was expecting Perm applications to increase way more than that as Economy is recovering well, but looks like this still ain't happeningYou have to be a bit careful just looking at the % values.

The 2.9k CTS approvals (almost all for India) at the end of March have a distorting effect on the figures.

If they are removed, the % split has remained fairly constant.

The same may well be true of Q3 eventually, since there have been another 2.1k CTS approvals to date.

[lifescrewsevery1]

Welcome to forum Life! First - you are good to go. Don't worry a bit. The card will come in time. Just follow up with USCIS ... call them up etc. No need for senator intervention. Did you ask USCIS (on phone call) what's the status -- if they sent it to the right address etc?

Thank you Q. I tried calling USCIS early this week but couldn't get through to L2 officer and the L1 was not interested in raising a service request because it hasn't been 1 month since approval (was 2 days short). I called again today and was able to go through to L2 using Address Verification as the excuse. I am in line and scheduled a call back with them. Hopefully, should receive a call soon. I did send the request for senator intervention in snailmail. I hope it doesn't hurt.

[qesehmk]

Thank you Q. I tried calling USCIS early this week but couldn't get through to L2 officer and the L1 was not interested in raising a service request because it hasn't been 1 month since approval (was 2 days short). I called again today and was able to go through to L2 using Address Verification as the excuse. I am in line and scheduled a call back with them. Hopefully, should receive a call soon. I did send the request for senator intervention in snailmail. I hope it doesn't hurt.
EAD AP is your thing (i.e. you are the petitioner). So you following up with USCIS absolutely should never hurt. Good luck!

[lifescrewsevery1]

Welcome to forum Life! First - you are good to go. Don't worry a bit. The card will come in time. Just follow up with USCIS ... call them up etc. No need for senator intervention. Did you ask USCIS (on phone call) what's the status -- if they sent it to the right address etc?

Thank you Q. I did call USCIS today AM and scheduled for a call back. I just received a call from the L2 officer and she confirmed that the card has not been produced yet (whoever can guess why?) but asked me to expect an update by 04/22/2015, so hoping for the best. I did send in the request for senator intervention via snailmail and hope it's not going to hurt even if they intervene.

[gcpursuit]

Q, Spec and other gurus,

Is there a way to find how much of these PERM approvals belong to EB2 or EB3? Historically, is there some kind of ratio for EB2:EB3?

[Spectator]

Q, Spec and other gurus,

Is there a way to find how much of these PERM approvals belong to EB2 or EB3? Historically, is there some kind of ratio for EB2:EB3?gcpursuit,

Not directly from the PERM.

There is some analysis of the PWD that suggests it is up around at least 70:30 EB2:EB3 (or even higher). See Here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/59-Prevailing-Wage-Determination-Data-Analysis).

The last usable data was from FY2013 - since then, the minimum months experience required field has not been populated correctly.

A more rough and ready calculation might be to use the figures from the PERM Statistics (http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PERM_SelectedStatistics_FY_2015_Q2.pdf) just released.

That shows that:

An Advanced Degree (PhD, Masters) is the minimum requirement for 52% of Certifications.
A Bachelors is the minimum requirement for 41% of Certifications.
Other (JD, MD etc) is the minimum requirement for 4% of Certifications.
The rest have a minimum requirement less than a Bachelor's.

If you say that half the Bachelor's cases also require at least 5 years experience (conservative compared to the PWD data) then EB2 could be as high as 52+20+4 = 76%

A relatively high figure might be consistent with the rapid progress for EB3 and the relatively low number of new cases seen in later years.

Typically, I use 65-70% for China, India and ROW and different (I can't remember off hand what they are) splits for Mexico and Philippines which is biased a little more towards EB3.

Also, bear in mind that PERM does not capture all cases. NIW and Schedule A do not require a PERM certification.

No simple answer I'm afraid.

It's possible over time that ROW will move to a split less biased towards EB2, if EB3 remains fairly near Current. But really, there is not much advantage to applying under EB3 if the beneficiary is suitably qualified and the job requirements do require Education/Experience that qualifies for EB2.

[qesehmk]

Spec - I think 70:30 EB2:EB3 split could be even worse now. I wouldnt be surprised if it is more like 80:20.

Now practically EB3 is a vanishing category. I think it would be a good idea for USCIS to rethink EB2 criteria. Otherwise why keep two separate categories if everybody is going to file in a supposedly tougher category?

[gcpursuit]

Thanks Spec and Q.

80:20 was what I was guessing given EB3 retrogression. no numbers to back it up or anything. Makes the future of EB2I even more bleak. :(

[gcpursuit]

From what I read long back, the minimum requirement for EB2 to be specified is still Master's degree whereas the alternative education can specify BS+5. Is that not correct? If it is, do they consider the alternative education field when they provide the education % in the PERM data?

[Spectator]

From what I read long back, the minimum requirement for EB2 to be specified is still Master's degree whereas the alternative education can specify BS+5. Is that not correct? If it is, do they consider the alternative education field when they provide the education % in the PERM data?gcpursuit,

If your asking does the 52% Advanced Degree % in the PERM statistics represent the sum of applicants with PhD, Masters and Bachelors +5 years progressive experience into a pseudo grouping called Advanced Degree, then I would say it does not. Advanced Degree usually means the attainment of a qualification beyond that of a graduate.

USCIS defines the requirements for EB2 as:


The job you apply for must require an advanced degree and you must possess such a degree or its equivalent (a baccalaureate degree plus 5 years progressive work experience in the field).

A primary requirement of Bachelors + 5 years progressive experience in the field satisfies the requirements to file under EB2 - it doesn't need to be the alternative requirement.

The historic PWD data suggested that for FY2013, Advanced Degrees were 50% (vs 52% in the Q2 PERM Factsheet), Bachelors were 40% (vs 41% in the Q2 PERM Factsheet) and Other were 4% (vs 4% in the Q2 PERM Factsheet). The small rise since then seems quite possible. The PWD data suggested that more than half the cases (63%) requiring a Bachelors also required at least 5 years experience.

There is no way IMHO that only 52% of PERM certified qualify for an I-140 submission under EB2. Both the historic PWD data (which split Masters or Bachelors +5 out) and the numbers of EB2/EB3 approvals seen do not support that.

You may have a different opinion, or I have completely misunderstood the question.

[gcpursuit]

gcpursuit,

If your asking does the 52% Advanced Degree % in the PERM statistics represent the sum of applicants with PhD, Masters and Bachelors +5 years progressive experience into a pseudo grouping called Advanced Degree, then I would say it does not. Advanced Degree usually means the attainment of a qualification beyond that of a graduate.

USCIS defines the requirements for EB2 as:



A primary requirement of Bachelors + 5 years progressive experience in the field satisfies the requirements to file under EB2 - it doesn't need to be the alternative requirement.



From what I have read long back ( it was too long ago.. so i am not sure if that's still true ), in the PERM application we were supposed to specify Masters as minimum requirement to qualify for EB2. If the PERM is being applied for a person who doesn't have masters, BS+5 should be specified as the alternative requirement but masters should still be the minimum requirement. I may be totally wrong in my understanding. Is that statement valid?

[imdeng]

Well... we will all be soon downgrading to EB3I just as EB2C folks have been doing recently :-)

Thanks Spec and Q.

80:20 was what I was guessing given EB3 retrogression. no numbers to back it up or anything. Makes the future of EB2I even more bleak. :(

[jimmys]

I'm in the following scenario. My PD is July 09 and yet to file I-485. My wife is in the 6th year of H-1B and her company chose not to file PERM. Her 6th year expires on Nov 10,2015.

I have no idea if my date will be current in July 15 to give enough time for wife's EAD approval to continue her work. I believe August is too risky for us to expect EAD in November 2015.

My plan is, if I'm not current in July 2015, I plan to apply wife's EAD using my approved I-140 with the start date of Nov 11,2015. My question is, if I apply EAD with approved I-140 in July, what happens when I apply I-485 in,say, August or September this year? Will there be 2 EAD applications pending for my wife? Will they be interlinked? Does anyone have idea about how it's gonna pan out?

Thanks,

[gcpursuit]

I'm in the following scenario. My PD is July 09 and yet to file I-485. My wife is in the 6th year of H-1B and her company chose not to file PERM. Her 6th year expires on Nov 10,2015.

I have no idea if my date will be current in July 15 to give enough time for wife's EAD approval to continue her work. I believe August is too risky for us to expect EAD in November 2015.

My plan is, if I'm not current in July 2015, I plan to apply wife's EAD using my approved I-140 with the start date of Nov 11,2015. My question is, if I apply EAD with approved I-140 in July, what happens when I apply I-485 in,say, August or September this year? Will there be 2 EAD applications pending for my wife? Will they be interlinked? Does anyone have idea about how it's gonna pan out?

Thanks,

jimmys,

You echoed the same situation I am in including the dates(almost) !!! . My PD is June 29,2009 and yet to file 485 ( missed it in 2012). My wife's H1b is expiring Nov 5th, 2015 ! These are my thoughts: The first concern that we have is there will be small break in employment with H4 EAD which I dont think can be avoided. I just want to make sure you understood that.

Also, I think its ok to have two EADs pending. I don't think they will be interlinked and that they are completely independent. You status will be determined by which one you ultimately choose to use.
Gurus here can correct me if I am wrong.

[Transformer]

I'm in the following scenario. My PD is July 09 and yet to file I-485. My wife is in the 6th year of H-1B and her company chose not to file PERM. Her 6th year expires on Nov 10,2015.

I have no idea if my date will be current in July 15 to give enough time for wife's EAD approval to continue her work. I believe August is too risky for us to expect EAD in November 2015.

My plan is, if I'm not current in July 2015, I plan to apply wife's EAD using my approved I-140 with the start date of Nov 11,2015. My question is, if I apply EAD with approved I-140 in July, what happens when I apply I-485 in,say, August or September this year? Will there be 2 EAD applications pending for my wife? Will they be interlinked? Does anyone have idea about how it's gonna pan out?

Thanks,

As gcpursuit mentioned having 2 EAD's is not an issue but more important thing is the gap in employment that you may have to plan for. COS to H4 and H4 EAD can be applied at the same time but there is no guarentee that both will happen at the same time. I believe (though there is no clarity) that they will start working on the EAD only after COS to H4 is complete and not in parallel. If that is the case then you can expect to have few months of break in employment. Better to prepare for the worse.

[unknownindian1]

Moderator: I apologize if this is the wrong forum. If so, please move to the appropriate thread (I did not see any thread of J1)

I need some help urgently. I am on H1B (EB3 - I140 approved, PD Sep 2009; Applied for EB2 Dec 2013 - hoping for a decision soon ) and my wife is on H4. She got her residency and needs to start working 1st July, 2015. Her program did not provide her H1B sponsorship and needs to apply for J1. We have started the process. However, I heard from multiple lawyers that she has got higher chance of rejection of J1 visa since I have applied for H1 B and we already have a daughter born here. Also, I heard that she should do consular processing (and not change of status) since change of status take a long time. Is there any way to find the rejection rates of J1 visa and what is the best way to reduce the chance of J1 rejection? Thanks

[jimmys]

jimmys,

You echoed the same situation I am in including the dates(almost) !!! . My PD is June 29,2009 and yet to file 485 ( missed it in 2012). My wife's H1b is expiring Nov 5th, 2015 ! These are my thoughts: The first concern that we have is there will be small break in employment with H4 EAD which I dont think can be avoided. I just want to make sure you understood that.

Also, I think its ok to have two EADs pending. I don't think they will be interlinked and that they are completely independent. You status will be determined by which one you ultimately choose to use.
Gurus here can correct me if I am wrong.

Great man. Let's be in touch in this forum.

Coming back to the point, the way I understood is, you can apply for EAD with future date. I believed it's same with H-4 too. That is, starting from Nov 11. My plan was to apply COS to H-4 and EAD almost together with future date. Say for example, if you're on L-1 visa and apply for H-1B your H-1B starts only from Oct 1. Like the same way, the H-4 starts only at a future date, say, Nov 11,2015. Can't the EAD be filed/approved starting from Nov 11,2015.?

Can't this be done? Should I wait for her to come back on H-4 first?

Having a break and moving to H-4 before filing EAD is vanilla case.

[Spectator]

The Q2 PERM Disclosure Data has been released. http://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm

It has a lot, lot, more data in it than previous releases.

PS:- The PERM Figures on the forum have now been updated.

[Spectator]

I don't consider this a serious attempt.

I did a "quick and dirty" analysis of the new PERM data for EB2:EB3 ratio, since it contains the information to do so. FWIW, this is what I came up with for Certified Cases in FY2015 Q1 & Q2 (but there might be a bit of a wide margin of error):

Country/Group -- EB2 --- EB3
CHINA ---------- 80% --- 20%
INDIA ---------- 84% --- 16%
MEXICO --------- 54% --- 46%
PHILIPPINES ---- 57% --- 43%
ROW ------------ 74% --- 26%

Overall -------- 80% --- 20%


Any errors would probably increase the EB2 %.

Make of it what you will and take it with a pinch of salt. I might revisit it another time.

[qesehmk]

Country/Group -- EB2 --- EB3
Overall -------- 80% --- 20%

Not a bad hunch Spec --- you must agree ;)

Thanks for the effort!

[imdeng]

Wow! A split of 80-20 is a very good sign for EB3I. Once that river starts flowing, it is likely to be a torrent.

Also - the density in EB3I post 07/07 might be pretty low - so it might even be possible that EB3I will zoom past EB2I in a couple years - until the EB2I to EB3I downgrades bring them to parity.




Country/Group -- EB2 --- EB3
CHINA ---------- 80% --- 20%
INDIA ---------- 84% --- 16%
MEXICO --------- 54% --- 46%
PHILIPPINES ---- 57% --- 43%
ROW ------------ 74% --- 26%

Overall -------- 80% --- 20%

[titha1]

My observations are anecdotal. Are you referring to your H1-B or did your wife apply for H1-B as well?

I know of multiple spouses who were on H4 and then ported to J1. I have not heard of 1 case that got rejected because they or their spouse were on H1. So, any increased risk should be miniscule. Irrespective of whether you have a kid or not. Most of those who applied to J1 went through consular processing. So, I cannot comment on length of time for change of status.

Congrats to your wife on her residency. And all the best.


Moderator: I apologize if this is the wrong forum. If so, please move to the appropriate thread (I did not see any thread of J1)

I need some help urgently. I am on H1B (EB3 - I140 approved, PD Sep 2009; Applied for EB2 Dec 2013 - hoping for a decision soon ) and my wife is on H4. She got her residency and needs to start working 1st July, 2015. Her program did not provide her H1B sponsorship and needs to apply for J1. We have started the process. However, I heard from multiple lawyers that she has got higher chance of rejection of J1 visa since I have applied for H1 B and we already have a daughter born here. Also, I heard that she should do consular processing (and not change of status) since change of status take a long time. Is there any way to find the rejection rates of J1 visa and what is the best way to reduce the chance of J1 rejection? Thanks

[Spectator]

I hinted my previous calculation was quite aggressive, so here is a repeat of that, plus a conservative calculation and the mean of the two calculations.

AGGRESSIVE
Country/Group -- EB2 --- EB3
CHINA ---------- 80% --- 20%
INDIA ---------- 84% --- 16%
MEXICO --------- 54% --- 46%
PHILIPPINES ---- 57% --- 43%
ROW ------------ 74% --- 26%

Overall -------- 80% --- 20%


CONSERVATIVE
Country/Group -- EB2 --- EB3
CHINA ---------- 78% --- 22%
INDIA ---------- 77% --- 23%
MEXICO --------- 45% --- 55%
PHILIPPINES ---- 50% --- 50%
ROW ------------ 69% --- 31%

Overall -------- 74% --- 26%


MEAN
Country/Group -- EB2 --- EB3
CHINA ---------- 79% --- 21%
INDIA ---------- 81% --- 19%
MEXICO --------- 49% --- 51%
PHILIPPINES ---- 53% --- 47%
ROW ------------ 71% --- 29%

Overall -------- 77% --- 23%

It might also be possible that, comparatively, more "EB2" PERM do not make it through the I-140 stage.

At some point, it is probably worth looking at the figures net of the large number of CTS certifications in March to see if they have skewed the Indian %.

EDIT:- CTS certifications had a ratio of 52:48 for EB2:EB3 on the conservative basis.
Excluding the CTS certifications would increase the conservative India ratio to 89:11 and the overall ratio to 82:18.

As before, I warn people that these figures should be taken with a large pinch of salt.

[Spectator]

Moderator: I apologize if this is the wrong forum. If so, please move to the appropriate thread (I did not see any thread of J1)

I need some help urgently. I am on H1B (EB3 - I140 approved, PD Sep 2009; Applied for EB2 Dec 2013 - hoping for a decision soon ) and my wife is on H4. She got her residency and needs to start working 1st July, 2015. Her program did not provide her H1B sponsorship and needs to apply for J1. We have started the process. However, I heard from multiple lawyers that she has got higher chance of rejection of J1 visa since I have applied for H1 B and we already have a daughter born here. Also, I heard that she should do consular processing (and not change of status) since change of status take a long time. Is there any way to find the rejection rates of J1 visa and what is the best way to reduce the chance of J1 rejection? ThanksI believe it is quite possible to get a COS to J1. I have no idea of the rejection rate or the circumstance that might lead to a rejection.

As an important aside, I generally equate the words "residency" and "J1" with the the possibility of a 2 year HRR.

I hope you have enquired about this and understand if there any implications for your wife.

If the J1 comes with a 2 year HRR, your wife will be ineligible to return to H4, obtain an H1B, or immigrant status until she has either served the 2 year HRR, or obtained a waiver from it.

The 2 year HRR is also called 212(e) from the INA. Here is what it says:


(e) No person admitted under section 101(a)(15)(J) or acquiring such status after admission

(i) whose participation in the program for which he came to the United States was financed in whole or in part, directly or indirectly, by an agency of the Government of the United States or by the government of the country of his nationality or his last residence,

(ii) who at the time of admission or acquisition of status under section 101(a)(15)(J) was a national or resident of a country which the Director of the United States Information Agency pursuant to regulations prescribed by him, had designated as clearly requiring the services of persons engaged in the field of specialized knowledge or skill in which the alien was engaged, or

(iii) who came to the United States or acquired such status in order to receive graduate medical education or training,

shall be eligible to apply for an immigrant visa, or for permanent residence, or for a nonimmigrant visa under section 101(a)(15)(H) or section 101(a)(15)(L)

until it is established that such person has resided and been physically present in the country of his nationality or his last residence for an aggregate of a least two years following departure from the United States:

Provided, That upon the favorable recommendation of the Director, pursuant to the request of an interested United States Government agency (or, in the case of an alien described in clause (iii), pursuant to the request of a State Department of Public Health, or its equivalent), or of the Com missioner of Immigration and Naturalization after he has determined that departure from the United States would impose exceptional hardship upon the alien's spouse or child (if such spouse or child is a citizen of the United States or a lawfully resident alien), or that the alien cannot return to the country of his nationality or last residence because he would be subject to persecution on account of race, religion, or political opinion, the Attorney General may waive the requirement of such two-year foreign residence abroad in the case of any alien whose admission to the United States is found by the Attorney General to be in the public interest except that in the case of a waiver requested by a State Department of Public Health, or its equivalent, or in the case of a waiver requested by an interested United States government agency on behalf of an alien described in clause (iii), the waiver shall be subject to the requirements of section 214(l) :

And provided further, That, except in the case of an alien described in clause (iii), the Attorney General may, upon the favorable recommendation of the Director, waive such two-year foreign residence requirement in any case in which the foreign country of the alien's nationality or last residence has furnished the Director a statement in writing that it has no objection to such waiver in the case of such alien.

I'm sure you have considered this, but I mention it anyway, given that your PD is likely to become current under EB2 within the next 18 months at most.

Apologies in advance if I am way off base.

[gcpursuit]

Great man. Let's be in touch in this forum.

Coming back to the point, the way I understood is, you can apply for EAD with future date. I believed it's same with H-4 too. That is, starting from Nov 11. My plan was to apply COS to H-4 and EAD almost together with future date. Say for example, if you're on L-1 visa and apply for H-1B your H-1B starts only from Oct 1. Like the same way, the H-4 starts only at a future date, say, Nov 11,2015. Can't the EAD be filed/approved starting from Nov 11,2015.?

Can't this be done? Should I wait for her to come back on H-4 first?

Having a break and moving to H-4 before filing EAD is vanilla case.

I am not sure how this future start date will pan out. What I read is that USCIS will only start working on the EAD application after COS is approved. Even if we do apply on May 26 without wasting any time, I was thinking that both COS and getting EAD may not be possible within 5 months.

I will wait to hear others thoughts on this.

[surya1975]

Sorry If I should not post other web sites content here.


From OH Law http://www.immigration-law.com/
---------------

04/20/2015: Movement of EB-2 India Cut-Off Date Predicted "Slow-Down" in August and/or September 2015

According to the AILA. State Department predicts that the late trend of movement of EB-2 cut-off date for India is likely to slow down as it enters the last quarter of FY 2015. It is likely that the cut-off date for India EB-2 may continuously move ahead a few months in June and July.



From Ron http://www.immigration-information.com/forums/threads/latest-info-from-charlie-oppenheim.17997/
-----------
This is from AILA's meeting with him on 4/16/2015:

EB-2 India. After advancing 16 months in March 2015, and eight months in April, EB-2 India will advance another 7+ months in May, to April 15, 2008. As cautioned last month, members should not expect that this category will continue to advance at this pace beyond July, and should expect it to slow or stop in August and/or September.

Ron

[gcpursuit]

I am not sure how this future start date will pan out. What I read is that USCIS will only start working on the EAD application after COS is approved. Even if we do apply on May 26 without wasting any time, I was thinking that both COS and getting EAD may not be possible within 5 months.

I will wait to hear others thoughts on this.

jimmys,

I checked with my attorney on the future start date. They dont think its possible to do that for H4 application.

[jimmys]

jimmys,

I checked with my attorney on the future start date. They dont think its possible to do that for H4 application.

Alright man, thanks.

[jimmys]

After AILA's latest meeting, what would be latest that dates can go this year? Will it be Sep 2009???

[aquatican]

Jimmys, as Gurus have estimated it will be difficult for even May 2009 PD Folks to get their GC this year.
However the key question is to what extent the Cut Off Date will advance ( Albeit temporarily) towards the end of 2015.

It would be great if it could go up to Sep 2009 . However the real answer will come on Jun 12th with the July 2015 bulletin. Lets say it goes up to Jun or Jul 2009 in that bulletin. From that point we will see minimal movement.
Just like you i am eagerly awaiting the next two bulletins which will determine this year.

Lets see if our superusers and predictors chime in to give their estimates about the COD advancement.


After AILA's latest meeting, what would be latest that dates can go this year? Will it be Sep 2009???

[civilengineer]

Last year April inventory came in around May 13th. Looks like the June bulletin and April inventory come out around the same time. Back to hibernation.

[unknownindian1]

Thanks titha1 and Spectator.

@titha1: It seems change of status takes a long time. We are going for consular processing. Keeping our finger crossed.

@Spectator: You bought a very good point. We are aware of the 2 year HRR. However, getting residency is so hard. We are just kicking the can down the road :(

[unknownindian1]

In the last couple of months, I have been getting more involved in my immigration related topics (I should have been more involved before) and this forum have been extremely helpful (thanks to folks who have contributed excellent insights).

Just to give a brief background . .I have EB3 I140 Approved (PD 09/2009) and I have applied for EB2 PERM (12/2013). I did not realize it initially but when I looked at the PERM documents couple of days back, I found that the job description is almost the same (except for 2 additional sentence). The job title is different (Analyst vs Manager), the experience required is Bachelor + 2 for the first one and Bachelors + 5 / Masters +2 for the second one and of course the salary. I am not using any internal experience. Do you think it is will create problem while applying for EB2 I140 or at any later point in the process? I have heard from multiple sources that job description needs to be more than 50% different but my job description was so generic. Any insights will be greatly appreciated.

[Spectator]

My understanding is that the 50%+ difference is only relevant where the person needs to use experience with the current employer to meet the petition requirements.

My understanding of your post is that you already had the required Education/Experience requirements for the position at the time you joined your employer. If so, I don't foresee a problem with that aspect.

I would bow to other answers from people with more experience of this type of situation.

[unknownindian1]

Spectator: Thanks a lot for your prompt response. Won't UCSIS/govt agency ask why the job description is very similar but have different experience requirement. Also, my title has changed again slightly from Manager to Senior Manager. I am not sure if it is going to impact the process. I heard that it should not change since my responsibilities are almost same and it is just a small change in title.

I had MS+ 2 years experience before I joined the company. Since the job description requires either a Bachelor + 5 years or MS + 2, the lawyer mentioned that I do not need to use my current employers experience.

[Spectator]

Spectator: Thanks a lot for your prompt response. Won't UCSIS/govt agency ask why the job description is very similar but have different experience requirement. Also, my title has changed again slightly from Manager to Senior Manager. I am not sure if it is going to impact the process. I heard that it should not change since my responsibilities are almost same and it is just a small change in title.

I had MS+ 2 years experience before I joined the company. Since the job description requires either a Bachelor + 5 years or MS + 2, the lawyer mentioned that I do not need to use my current employers experience.I agree with your lawyer.

I can't comment on your other question.

[cbames]

Hi all, I need some advise on what should I do to get an update on my pending 485. Any help is greatly appreciated. Below are my details:

COB: India
EB3 priority date: October 1st 2004 (labor substitution)
I-485 filed: August 2007 at Nebraska Service Center (was residing in CA)
EB2 I-140 filed: December 2014 at Nebraska Service Center
I-485 transferred to Texas Service Center January 2015 (maybe because I am in CO now)
Spouse I-485 Filed: January 2015 at Phoenix lockbox, and was sent to TSC
EB2 I-140 approved: February 3rd 2015 with old EB3 priority date of October 1st 2004; same day spouse I-485 was accepted at TSC; finger print notice received for spouse, finger print completed, received EAD and AP for spouse in March 2015

However since then there has been no update on my I-485 application. I opened 4 service requests since Feb 2015, 2 infopass appointments, contacted local congressman, but unable to get any update. I also emailed EBUPDATE.tsc@dhs.gov and TSC.NCSCfollowup@uscis.dhs.gov 3 weeks ago and no response. Please let me know what I should do to get an update.

Thanks,
cbames

[Spectator]

cbames,

I think you have probably done what you can, but your expectations seem a little optimistic.

It seems to take an average of about 6-7 months from the approval of the EB2 I-140 to receive an I-485 approval for porting cases.

I had a quick look at early PD approvals on Trackitt and with a few exceptions, USCIS have been approving cases where the I-140 was approved in the July-October 2014 range. There are outliers at both ends of that range. There is 1 case of an I-485 approval from a March 2015 I-140 approval.

Your EB2 I-140 was approved about 84 days ago. Unless you get lucky, you should expect to wait a while longer yet.

In addition, the INA states that the order of consideration for an I-485 is based on the date the petition (I-140) was received by USCIS (INA 203(c)).


INA: ACT 203 - ALLOCATION OF IMMIGRANT VISAS

(e) Order of Consideration. -

(1) Immigrant visas made available under subsection (a) or (b) shall be issued to eligible immigrants in the order in which a petition in behalf of each such immigrant is filed with the Attorney General (or in the case of special immigrants under section 101(a)(27)(D) , with the Secretary of State) as provided in section 204(a).

Subsection (b) refers to 203(b) - Preference Allocation for Employment-Based Immigrants. A petition refers to the I-140 for EB1-EB3.

Although you have an early PD date, your qualifying EB2 petition was only received by USCIS in December 2014. That means many cases that are current will have a petition receipt date earlier than yours.

Hard as it may be, I think you need to temper your expectations at this time and be delighted if the approval comes earlier.

[cbames]

Thank you very much Spectator. I just checked and my EB2 I-140 was received by USCIS on 12/5/2014. How long do you think it might take for USCIS to look into my 485? Also is there anything I can do to make sure my 485 will be considered under EB2, and not EB3.

Thanks,
cbames

[qesehmk]

CO's website folks are getting a bit sloppy. The current bulletin being shown is April and next month is May!!

[cbames]

Hi Spectator, my congressman's office just got this response from the TSC regarding my I-485:

“The I-485 (LIN08xxxx/Axxxx) employment-based petition is based on the approved I-140 (LIN15xxxx) which was given a 2nd preference category from India with a priority date of 10/01/2004 so there is a current visa. The file is currently in transit to another liaison so it will be assigned to the Adjudication Unit for review once the file is received. The FBI fingerprints have expired but the name checks are valid. Once the review is completed, the individual should receive a Notice of Action regarding the case.”

Thanks,
cbames

[surya1975]

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-june-2015.html

Ind EB2 : 01OCT08

[gten20]

Shouldn't the April 2015 Inventory Report for Pending I-485 be out by now?

[imdeng]

Oh Well... status quo continues. Only 5.5 months this time for EB2I. Next month will be the important one a we will enter 4th quarter.
EB3ROW continues to resist becoming current. Going from 01Jan2015 to 15Feb2015 makes no difference to anything at all.
EB2C made a big inventory building jump of 1 year.
All the missing demand in EB3P has come back with a vengeance.

http://travel.state.gov/content/visas/english/law-and-policy/bulletin/2015/visa-bulletin-for-june-2015.html

Ind EB2 : 01OCT08

[migo79]

Oh Well... status quo continues. Only 5.5 months this time for EB2I. Next month will be the important one a we will enter 4th quarter.
EB3ROW continues to resist becoming current. Going from 01Jan2015 to 15Feb2015 makes no difference to anything at all.
EB2C made a big inventory building jump of 1 year.
All the missing demand in EB3P has come back with a vengeance.

disappointing, I don't know the point to keep moving EB3ROW a month instead of make it current and start moving EB3I
EB3ROW is current since couple of months now and i don't see any data that can tell me there are any surprise.
The only thing i can think of is that they have already good inventory for EB3I until this PDs, anything else is just nonsense.

[jimmys]

Shouldn't the April 2015 Inventory Report for Pending I-485 be out by now?

Should most likely be out this week.

[saagar_is_cool]

Oh Well... status quo continues. Only 5.5 months this time for EB2I. Next month will be the important one a we will enter 4th quarter.
EB3ROW continues to resist becoming current. Going from 01Jan2015 to 15Feb2015 makes no difference to anything at all.
EB2C made a big inventory building jump of 1 year.
All the missing demand in EB3P has come back with a vengeance.

Spec, Q and gurus,

I was hoping it would move to Nov 2008 atleast, so that my pd of apr 17 2009 has chances of becoming current injuly bulletin atleast. At this point, I ama little disappointd. Can you throw some light on what are my chances of getting GC this year with apr 17 2009 are? I am a first time filer in Sep 2014 and RD is Sep 2 2014.

[Spectator]

Spec, Q and gurus,

I was hoping it would move to Nov 2008 at least, so that my pd of apr 17 2009 has chances of becoming current in july bulletin at least. At this point, I am a little disappointed. Can you throw some light on what are my chances of getting GC this year with apr 17 2009 are? I am a first time filer in Sep 2014 and RD is Sep 2 2014.saagar,

I fear it will be quite difficult.

It doesn't look as if you will become current in July since that would require a 6 3/4 months forward movement and about 3k visas. If that is correct, August would be the earliest you might become current.

Your medical expires on September 2 and you don't mention an RFE for a new I-693. You may therefore have as little as a 1 month window for your case to be adjudicated in what is frankly lottery season.

Best of luck.

[saagar_is_cool]

saagar,

I fear it will be quite difficult.

It doesn't look as if you will become current in July since that would require a 6 3/4 months forward movement and about 3k visas. If that is correct, August would be the earliest you might become current.

Your medical expires on September 2 and you don't mention an RFE for a new I-693. You may therefore have as little as a 1 month window for your case to be adjudicated in what is frankly lottery season.

Best of luck.

Thanks a lot for the reply Spec. I did not receive any RFE yet. So I just have to probably pray to the stars! I rushed to file on day 1 last year to get my RD earliest in hope of faster processing. In hindsight, I should have delayed filing till end of September or so :( It does not seem fair that the persons who filed first get the stick with this I-693 1 year validity rule. Fingers crossed :) Thanks again.

[perestroika]

disappointing, I don't know the point to keep moving EB3ROW a month instead of make it current and start moving EB3I
EB3ROW is current since couple of months now and i don't see any data that can tell me there are any surprise.
The only thing i can think of is that they have already good inventory for EB3I until this PDs, anything else is just nonsense.
I think there are a few things at play here:
1. CO doesn't want to repeat his FY2013 performance, where he moved EB3RoW too slowly and artificially reduced the approvable EB3RoW demand, thereby increasing the FA base for EB3I. From his statements to AILA recently, it can be inferred that he wants to maximize EB3RoW consumption before applying any FA to EB3I this year. So, a sizable EB3I movement, if any, might happen only in September.
2. CO is covering his butt. Even though EB3RoW is technically "Current", he has not turned EB3RoW "Current" on paper. In the event that there is no FA available to EB3I because of high EB3RoW consumption, he can always say, "I had told you so". CO clearly indicated to AILA recently that EB3I will get some FA only if EB3RoW turns "Current". Appearances matter. In my view, he's just following his own script to maintain his credibility and avoid any controversies.

Just my thoughts anyway. I welcome others' thoughts.

[Spectator]

The Service Center Processing Times (https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplay.do) have been updated today.

As of March 31, 2015 the I-485 processing times for EB cases are :

NSC - November 16, 2014 (4.5 months)
TSC - August 15, 2014 (7.5 months)

Not that the dates necessarily ever bear any resemblance to reality!

[bluelabel]

The Service Center Processing Times (https://egov.uscis.gov/cris/processTimesDisplay.do) have been updated today.

As of March 31, 2015 the I-485 processing times for EB cases are :

NSC - November 16, 2014 (4.5 months)
TSC - August 15, 2014 (7.5 months)

Not that the dates necessarily ever bear any resemblance to reality!

Looks like TSC will only approve ROW cases filed before 02/15/2015 by end of this FY. Is it an indicator for little more spillover than anticipated for EB2I?

[Spectator]

Looks like TSC will only approve ROW cases filed before 02/15/2015 by end of this FY. Is it an indicator for little more spillover than anticipated for EB2I?bluelabel,

I think the answer to that would be a categorical yes and no. :confused:

Yes in the sense that had TSC processing times not lengthened, then it could have been worse.

No in the sense that despite that, EB2-non IC still appear to have received significant approvals this FY. The TSC times would have to continue to slip during the remainder of the FY.

If TSC processing times improve, it will inject even more cases at that time (but maybe that is next FY).

The problem is the processing times are notoriously inaccurate, although it does appear that TSC processing is quite slow at the moment.

Finally, we know that EB I-485 have been subject to transfer between SC - we don't know how many or where they were transferred from and who received them and when they received them. It could be that NSC now have more EB cases than TSC, but there is no way to tell whether that is the case (or not the case).

I wouldn't read too much into the processing times.

[jimmys]

In all, what's the probability of PD reaching July 15,2009 this year?

[mechanical13]

In all, what's the probability of PD reaching July 15,2009 this year?

The only accurate answer to this question would be less than or equal to 100% .:cool: I would say less than 100% with a power of 90%.

Sorry, feeling a little nerdy. :D

[redsox2009]

I did not notice untill today that in last three months China EB2 moved almost a year in each Bulletin.

[YTeleven]

In all, what's the probability of PD reaching July 15,2009 this year?

Please see my projections for FY15 which was projected back in Dec'14: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=54877#post54877
I'm still sticking with that predictions as I don't see any significant change in ground realities since then. Also, I used the same mathematical model as I did for FY14 projections and it was 90% accurate. I'm confident this year also it will be as accurate as it was of last year.
Hence my answer to your question is 90% probability that your PD will get current this year.

[Spectator]

Please see my projections for FY15 which was projected back in Dec'14: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=54877#post54877
I'm still sticking with that predictions as I don't see any significant change in ground realities since then. Also, I used the same mathematical model as I did for FY14 projections and it was 90% accurate. I'm confident this year also it will be as accurate as it was of last year.
Hence my answer to your question is 90% probability that your PD will get current this year.YT,

Good for you for sticking to your guns.

A couple of observations about the forecast.

a) You are predicting that EB2-NonIC will use around 24k (compared to 22k in FY2014). I believe that is a very low figure that is not borne out by what has been seen to date in the FY.

b) You show EB5 use as 11.5k, which is slightly over 1k more than the allocation. I'm not sure if you believe EB5 will be over allocated or not, or whether it is a minor error.

[skpanda]

Hello Friends,
Sorry to post this question here. I will delete it later.

Can you please check the below query and confirm my understanding.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2555-Job-Location-change-Same-Company-Same-State-Different-City


Thanks for your help!

[jimmys]

YTeleven:
Thanks for your prediction and the link. I hope and wish it becomes 90% true again.

[idiotic]

Query regarding the EB-5 spillover numbers.. Since EB5-C has cutoff date now, if X spillover visas are available in EB5 category before the end of year, will the excess numbers go to EB5-C or it will go to EB1 and continue from there?

[geterdone]

Please see my projections for FY15 which was projected back in Dec'14: http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=54877#post54877
I'm still sticking with that predictions as I don't see any significant change in ground realities since then. Also, I used the same mathematical model as I did for FY14 projections and it was 90% accurate. I'm confident this year also it will be as accurate as it was of last year.
Hence my answer to your question is 90% probability that your PD will get current this year.

If someone has a pd of Dec 1st, 2009 then you have roughly 15K applications till then pending. I do understand that porting will add more applicants. So based on your calculations EB2 India will get roughly 16750. So will the dates move that far? All the calculations are showing June to July 2009 as the best case scenario.

[Spectator]

Query regarding the EB-5 spillover numbers.. Since EB5-C has cutoff date now, if X spillover visas are available in EB5 category before the end of year, will the excess numbers go to EB5-C or it will go to EB1 and continue from there?idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

[aquatican]

Hey Spec,
It would be nice to have the inventory report, wouldnt it? :)

[qesehmk]

Spec - just curious where you are getting the 144,730 number from?


idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

[Jagan01]

Spec - just curious where you are getting the 144,730 number from?

Annual limits for FY2015.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf

[qesehmk]

Annual limits for FY2015.

http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Web_Annual_Numerical_Limits.pdf


Thanks Jagan. The visa bulletin still shows 140K only. That's why I asked.

[Spectator]

Thanks Jagan. The visa bulletin still shows 140K only. That's why I asked.Q,

The VB will continue to show "at least 140,000" until DOS receives the information from USCIS needed to calculate the exact figure.

The official figure is usually only published in the September VB because USCIS are so slow in providing the required information. It took them until July 24th last year.

[bikenlalan]

idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

Spec, Why do you say that there will be no spillover from EB5 to EB1? EB5 has 10275 this FY, and as per the Jan 2015 inventory the total inventory for EB5 is 124 of which China is 66. I do understand having a cut-off for China, but no fall from EB5 to EB1 does not make sense to me. Can you explain this?

[Spectator]

Spec, Why do you say that there will be no spillover from EB5 to EB1? EB5 has 10275 this FY, and as per the Jan 2015 inventory the total inventory for EB5 is 124 of which China is 66. I do understand having a cut-off for China, but no fall from EB5 to EB1 does not make sense to me. Can you explain this?bikenlalan,

The Inventory does not provide any useful information for EB5.

Nearly 90% of EB5 cases are Consular Processed.

If you look at the NVC data (http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingListItem.pdf) as of November 1, 2014 EB5 already had 6,418 cases waiting for a visa abroad based on an approved I-526. Of these, 5,169 were for China.

[idiotic]

idiotic,

Understand that all EB5-China visas are Fall Across from other Countries in EB5.

In a normal year, EB5 would have 9,940 visas. 7% of that is 696 visas. Under the terms of the Chinese Student Protection Act, China's EB5 allocation is reduced by 700, so China start the FY with zero visas. The only visas available to them are those that other Countries in EB5 do not need.

Therefore, the setting of a Cut Off Date for EB5-China is saying they will use all visas from other Countries in EB5 that are spare. In other words, EB5 will use the total allocation available to it. In FY2015, that seems tp be about 10,275 based on 144,730 total EB visas.

Put another way, there will be no spare visas from EB5 to Fall Up to EB1.

To answer your original question, Fall Across within a Category is given a higher priority than Fall Up to another Category. That way, a Category will use the allocation given to it when there is still demand.

Thanks for your time and detailed explnation Spec. Much appreciated.