EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[excalibur123]

Dude, Chile is the bomb! Most prosperous country in South America (per capita GDP of course, Brazil is huge in net GDP), great food, great people, advanced and stable government/economy, awesome beaches, natural beauty... I can keep going on. Definitely worth a vacation visit if you can do it. We are seriously thinking about it as a retirement destination.

Good to know, I would def. add to my bucket list. :).

But why didn't you continue to stay there ?

Also I never really understood "I want to retire at XXX place" statements. Thought one would live where your friends, family and children, esp. at time of retirement. That's why I take all such articles in cnbc about best places to retire with a pinch of salt.

[EB32010]

"This transition no doubt will result in an increase in the number of EB2-to-EB3 “downgrade” cases from Indian-born applicants. If the increase is significant, this eventually could lead to EB2 India once again having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 India."

All- Be careful with your downgrades, what CO is saying that if there are significant downgrade. EB2 will have favorable dates. He is kind of indicating something. As suggested earlier by someone unless the FAD becomes current, don't hurry up. You don't want to be in a situation where you upgraded first from EB3 to EB2, than downgrade EB2-EB3 and get trapped
That quote is from Murthy and not from CO even though I agree with that statement.

[EB2/eb3]

That quote is from Murthy and not from CO even though I agree with that statement.
I think that was CO who mentioned that.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Good to know, I would def. add to my bucket list. :).

But why didn't you continue to stay there ?

Also I never really understood "I want to retire at XXX place" statements. Thought one would live where your friends, family and children, esp. at time of retirement. That's why I take all such articles in cnbc about best places to retire with a pinch of salt.

Good questions! Our children are American and once the oldest turned 5, basically that was the stopping point for traveling around so that their schooling does not get affected and we wanted them to go to school here and be conversant about the history and culture of their own homeland. Coincidentally, both our parents passed away early and we never really developed any close relationships with other extended family or with India to be honest once we moved here and have some major wanderlust because of that but would love to provide our children the opportunity to have their own strong national identity. Chances are we will end up living a nomadic life once the kids have flown the coop (basically the inspiration for my username :D).

[EB32010]

I think that was CO who mentioned that.

That particular quote was mentioned in the second paragraph of the section and I think second paragraph is the comment from Murthy or her lawyers. It’s pure speculation though :)

[YTeleven]

This transition no doubt will result in an increase in the number of EB2-to-EB3 “downgrade” cases from Indian-born applicants. If the increase is significant, this eventually could lead to EB2 India once again having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 India.


This statement is a BS. I don't trust it. In my opinion EB2I cutoff dates will not surpass EB3I cutoff dates in next 5 years.
Also, we can't compare the EB2/3 China behavior with EB2/3 India behavior as the underlying total China data size is just 10% of total India data size.
Statistically I can't use this data for comparison.
I'm sticking to my earlier predictions. You will see what I was predicting at least after 3 to 6 months from now.

[sanjeevtrivedi]

This statement is a BS. I don't trust it. In my opinion EB2I cutoff dates will not surpass EB3I cutoff dates in next 5 years.
Also, we can't compare the EB2/3 China behavior with EB2/3 India behavior as the underlying total China data size is just 10% of total India data size.
Statistically I can't use this data for comparison.
I'm sticking to my earlier predictions. You will see what I was predicting at least after 3 to 6 months from now.

Well, one more interesting comment he made is that he is moving the date for EB3 I, because the demand of ROW not strong. So does that means EB3-I has good demand. I know different people have different opinion, but there should be a wait and watch policy until EB3-I crosses May 2010 ( for any EB2 after May 2010 to downgrade). There is simply lot of uncertainity at this point especially now CO saying there could be chance of favorable date for EB2 I.

[EB32010]

This statement is a BS. I don't trust it. In my opinion EB2I cutoff dates will not surpass EB3I cutoff dates in next 5 years.
Also, we can't compare the EB2/3 China behavior with EB2/3 India behavior as the underlying total China data size is just 10% of total India data size.
Statistically I can't use this data for comparison.
I'm sticking to my earlier predictions. You will see what I was predicting at least after 3 to 6 months from now.

YT, I know you have predicted many things and many of them were accurate. I know you have good knowledge of how things work. But I just can’t wrap my head around what you are saying that EB2 won’t surpass EB3 in 5 years even though I highly respect your opinion. Initially I thought downgrade might be hard but I don’t think it’s that hard. Downgraders are starting to get I-140 approvals and some of them in premium as well. Downgrades is going to happen in full swing once it crosses May 2010. I hope what you are saying is true since I hold July 2010 date on EB3 but I am very skeptical about it

[excalibur123]

Good questions! Our children are American and once the oldest turned 5, basically that was the stopping point for traveling around so that their schooling does not get affected and we wanted them to go to school here and be conversant about the history and culture of their own homeland. Coincidentally, both our parents passed away early and we never really developed any close relationships with other extended family or with India to be honest once we moved here and have some major wanderlust because of that but would love to provide our children the opportunity to have their own strong national identity. Chances are we will end up living a nomadic life once the kids have flown the coop (basically the inspiration for my username :D).

Well we all feel a degree of rootlessness. But interestingly how did you manage to stay in different countries on H1 - remote working or vacation?

But also can you judge a place within a few weeks/months? I have met people who wouldn't leave UK or Singapore for any other place. Personally I wonder how NZ or Scotland would have worked out for me. One is amazingly beautiful and the other has so much history. And both have small town feeling.

[YTeleven]

YT, I know you have predicted many things and many of them were accurate. I know you have good knowledge of how things work. But I just can’t wrap my head around what you are saying that EB2 won’t surpass EB3 in 5 years even though I highly respect your opinion. Initially I thought downgrade might be hard but I don’t think it’s that hard. Downgraders are starting to get I-140 approvals and some of them in premium as well. Downgrades is going to happen in full swing once it crosses May 2010. I hope what you are saying is true since I hold July 2010 date on EB3 but I am very skeptical about it

I accept the downgrades will happen, it may be harder now, may become easier in future, but still I don't think the downgrade rate will beat the EB3India visa supply rate in coming years. So, ultimately it leads to a more favorable cutoff date for EB3I but NOT the same for EB2I.
All I'm saying is EB2I cutoff dates will never ever catch-up with EB3I cutoff dates in next 5 years.

Let me put it in a different way.. we saw in the last 10 years the EB2I had always a more favorable cutoff date compared to EB3I and the upgrades had a net effect of pulling the EB2I cutoff dates backwards.
Now in the next 10 years what we see is the opposite to it, EB3I cutoff dates will be always have more favorable dates than compared to EB2I and the downgrades will have a net effect of pulling the EB2I cutoff dates but this time it will be in forward direction but these dates will not become equal as most of us thinking.

[AceMan]

YT, I know you have predicted many things and many of them were accurate. I know you have good knowledge of how things work. But I just can’t wrap my head around what you are saying that EB2 won’t surpass EB3 in 5 years even though I highly respect your opinion. Initially I thought downgrade might be hard but I don’t think it’s that hard. Downgraders are starting to get I-140 approvals and some of them in premium as well. Downgrades is going to happen in full swing once it crosses May 2010. I hope what you are saying is true since I hold July 2010 date on EB3 but I am very skeptical about it

He is correct.

Eb2 I passing May 2010 with an optimistic outlook is 3 years. In this 3 years, Eb3 even with downgrades would be in 2012/13 PD. Philippines getting to current will help EB3 I get close to 10 K GC visa most probably from this FY and next.

WE know based on the last years report we have Eb2:3 (216:55) at 4:1 ratio. Even with 50% downgrade from EB2, the base demand will still be high to make a remarkable progress in the next 2 years to get anywhere close to Eb3 dates in the year 2024.

10 years is what YT said, and the realistically numbers currently point towards that direction.

[EB32010]

He is correct.

Eb2 I passing May 2010 with an optimistic outlook is 3 years. In this 3 years, Eb3 even with downgrades would be in 2012/13 PD. Philippines getting to current will help EB3 I get close to 10 K GC visa most probably from this FY and next.

WE know based on the last years report we have Eb2:3 (216:55) at 4:1 ratio. Even with 50% downgrade from EB2, the base demand will still be high to make a remarkable progress in the next 2 years to get anywhere close to Eb3 dates in the year 2024.

10 years is what YT said, and the realistically numbers currently point towards that direction.

Filing date have reached only April 2010. Do you think they will have the demand of 6000 visas for this FY?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Well we all feel a degree of rootlessness. But interestingly how did you manage to stay in different countries on H1 - remote working or vacation?

But also can you judge a place within a few weeks/months? I have met people who wouldn't leave UK or Singapore for any other place. Personally I wonder how NZ or Scotland would have worked out for me. One is amazingly beautiful and the other has so much history. And both have small town feeling.

Will hopefully not try not to hijack this prediction thread further! Just a mix of tourist and business visas traveling for pleasure and work (me - oil & gas industry, wife - professor in engineering). Obviously sample size in each place may not have been sufficient but was enough to get a feel for different places. Even within the US, we try to visit and stay in different cities for Spring Break, Summer Break and Winter Break to experience the different cuisines, notable places and other things to do in different parts of the country.

My suggestion to everyone is this: Don't let the GC process drag you down. If I had spent every day worrying about it, I would have done that for 9+ yrs now and missed out on the prime of life and still be in the same situation as now. I am only focusing on it now since it's reasonably close to make some decisions and take action. I am glad I had a few older friends who counseled me about it in the very beginning.

[AceMan]

Filing date have reached only April 2010. Do you think they will have the demand of 6000 visas for this FY?

We are still only in the 2nd quarter, the current numbers show EB3-ROW demand is basically nothing, by the speed at which they are pushing Philippines dates compared to EB2-ROW which is current for the foreseeable future.

I am "hoping" for closer to 10 K for Eb-3 India and another extremely pleasant surprise of 1 year forward movement of Eb3-I final dates in July 19.

[skpanda]

I am going on 18 years in this country and still waiting. Moved here in 2001 on F1, got H1 in Dec 2004 and EB-2 Priority date is Feb 2010. So yes it is possible.

Some people are just "Lucky" :)

I thought I was the one waiting for a long time. Looks like you beat me to it!

Moved here in 2005 on H1. PD in Dec 2010.

[AceMan]

I thought I was the one waiting for a long time. Looks like you beat me to it!

Moved here in 2005 on H1. PD in Dec 2010.

Look like with a 2007 entry to the country, I might be the newest in the country here in the forum.

[IamGSN]

I have been following this thread, which has been very useful for layman like me and hats off to everyone who contribute with their predications/calculations. Have a quick questions, admin can delete if it is irrelevant to this thread. I have approved I-140 on both EB2 and EB3 with PD of July 2009. I decided to file 485 under EB3 category to utilize the filing chart of Jan once I realized that USCIS is not honoring the filing chart in Feb. But I thought I am left with few days to file before 31st Jan and when I asked my employer, employer attorney responded saying I can still file using Jan bulletin filing chart in Feb. Is that true? Second question, is it not necessary to file 485 through my employer provided Attorney? Can I go with any attorney of my choice? Appreciate in advance for the clarifications.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

But I thought I am left with few days to file before 31st Jan and when I asked my employer, employer attorney responded saying I can still file using Jan bulletin filing chart in Feb. Is that true?

Not true. You need to immediately report to the HR Department that the Attorney is not well versed in Immigration matters and seek permission to use an attorney of your choice. By the way, if you have not already collected your documents and kept ready (Medicals) I don't see how you can even file before the end of this month. My question is why did you suddenly wake up at the last minute? Why did you not ask this question as soon as USCIS said they will not honor Filing Date?

[newyorker123]

When you guys say that EB3 could get to 2012/3 in next few years, its filing dates you are talking about right ?
Where would the final dates be ?

[GCkaLADDU]

Look like with a 2007 entry to the country, I might be the newest in the country here in the forum.

I am with you buddy! 2007 it was for me as well and i was thinking that i am an old timer :)

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I accept the downgrades will happen, it may be harder now, may become easier in future, but still I don't think the downgrade rate will beat the EB3India visa supply rate in coming years. So, ultimately it leads to a more favorable cutoff date for EB3I but NOT the same for EB2I.
All I'm saying is EB2I cutoff dates will never ever catch-up with EB3I cutoff dates in next 5 years.

Let me put it in a different way.. we saw in the last 10 years the EB2I had always a more favorable cutoff date compared to EB3I and the upgrades had a net effect of pulling the EB2I cutoff dates backwards.
Now in the next 10 years what we see is the opposite to it, EB3I cutoff dates will be always have more favorable dates than compared to EB2I and the downgrades will have a net effect of pulling the EB2I cutoff dates but this time it will be in forward direction but these dates will not become equal as most of us thinking.

Interesting prediction. I am most likely to say next 2 yrs than 10 yrs, for the simple reason that a lot of EB2 folks are upgrades from EB3, having both EB2 and EB3 PERM's. For them to downgrade will take far less time than it took for them to upgrade.

Those who have already filed AOS in EB2, may not be motivated to downgrade, but it is a different story for those who have not filed AOS. ALL these folks will now file in EB3, rather will already have filed in EB3 by the end of this month. For > April 2010 PD's also, everyone who has an EB3 Perm will immediately file AOS as soon as they become current. Quite a few of those who don't have an EB3 Perm will already have applied for PERM in EB3, especially if they work for desi consulting companies.

Again, if the Per Country limit is removed, then all predictions go for a toss.

[GCkaLADDU]

Will hopefully not try not to hijack this prediction thread further! Just a mix of tourist and business visas traveling for pleasure and work (me - oil & gas industry, wife - professor in engineering). Obviously sample size in each place may not have been sufficient but was enough to get a feel for different places. Even within the US, we try to visit and stay in different cities for Spring Break, Summer Break and Winter Break to experience the different cuisines, notable places and other things to do in different parts of the country.

My suggestion to everyone is this: Don't let the GC process drag you down. If I had spent every day worrying about it, I would have done that for 9+ yrs now and missed out on the prime of life and still be in the same situation as now. I am only focusing on it now since it's reasonably close to make some decisions and take action. I am glad I had a few older friends who counseled me about it in the very beginning.

I completely agree with you mate! And looks like we have a lot in common :)

Been in and out of USA several times and got to spend time in Sweden, Switzerland and Canada in between. Its amazing to explore the nuances of different places as a resident rather than a tourist. Still have Australia and NZ in my wish list.. will make it some day. However, with that being said, there's no country like US of A when it comes to openness, inclusiveness (Hey! you also have to reach out and talk to Americans instead of just huddling with your desi groups) and ease of life.

Spending time fretting about whats not in our hands is absolutely useless. Taking pleasures in simple things of life like watching kids grow, a backyard bbq with friends with cold beer etc.... is what makes it all worth. Even if something goes unexpected with US stint... my India is always there :)

[redsox2009]

Here is the 2018 December DOS data.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
40
14
01
00
10
00
61
126


EB2
12
03
01
21
122
02
103
264



EB3
025
105
029
356
051
000
525
1091


EB4
00
15
00
04
00
01
142
161


EB5
413
046
004
002
029
033
171
698


Total
490
183
035
383
212
035
1002
2340

[maverick23]

My I-485 (Priority date July 2007 EB-3 India) application was applied concurrently along with I-140 amendment request since employer was acquired. Both cases are currently in Texas since April 2018. Fingerprints were taken in August 2018 and received EAD/AP combo cards for primary and dependent in September. I-140 finally got approved after 9 months this morning.

Now that the I-140 is approved is there anything I can do from my end, such as - infopass appointment and/or involving local congressman to gain traction on my 485 application? My 485 application currently states Finger print review completed and we still need to be scheduled for the interview.

Folks please advise as I am getting close to the 12 month mark on medicals and hope not having to repeat them again. The wait since July 2007 has been excruciatingly long and painful so would really appreciate any insight you may have.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

My I-485 (Priority date July 2007 EB-3 India) application was applied concurrently along with I-140 amendment request since employer was acquired. Both cases are currently in Texas since April 2018. Fingerprints were taken in August 2018 and received EAD/AP combo cards for primary and dependent in September. I-140 finally got approved after 9 months this morning.

Now that the I-140 is approved is there anything I can do from my end, such as - infopass appointment and/or involving local congressman to gain traction on my 485 application? My 485 application currently states Finger print review completed and we still need to be scheduled for the interview.

Folks please advise as I am getting close to the 12 month mark on medicals and hope not having to repeat them again. The wait since July 2007 has been excruciatingly long and painful so would really appreciate any insight you may have.

Congrats! You are almost there. Just hang in there till they send you interview date and you should be getting your GC soon. Just a question, did you not get a chance to use Premium processing?

[texas_]

Does anyone has latest perm approval trend? I believe there were less perms approved in November and December of last year. I hope to see it continue going fwd.

Does anyone know if H2 Farm workers results into more perm approval ? Just curious

[AceMan]

When you guys say that EB3 could get to 2012/3 in next few years, its filing dates you are talking about right ?
Where would the final dates be ?

I expect filing dates to be within a year max for Eb3

[maverick23]

Congrats! You are almost there. Just hang in there till they send you interview date and you should be getting your GC soon. Just a question, did you not get a chance to use Premium processing?
I did not use premium processing as my lawyer said that I could not avail the premium route since the original PERM did not accompany the I-140 amendment application. I had to raise two SRs one in November and second in January.

[h1bh1bh1b]

Interesting prediction. I am most likely to say next 2 yrs than 10 yrs, for the simple reason that a lot of EB2 folks are upgrades from EB3, having both EB2 and EB3 PERM's. For them to downgrade will take far less time than it took for them to upgrade.

Those who have already filed AOS in EB2, may not be motivated to downgrade, but it is a different story for those who have not filed AOS. ALL these folks will now file in EB3, rather will already have filed in EB3 by the end of this month. For > April 2010 PD's also, everyone who has an EB3 Perm will immediately file AOS as soon as they become current. Quite a few of those who don't have an EB3 Perm will already have applied for PERM in EB3, especially if they work for desi consulting companies.

Again, if the Per Country limit is removed, then all predictions go for a toss.

People who upgraded from EB3 to EB2 do not need to do anything. EB3 Perm can be used to file . But if people have moved to different employers , then EB3 employer has to sponsor again
People who havent received EAD will all instantly downgrade to EB3 with concurrent filing as H1B extensions are given in months now a days

[newyorker123]

I expect filing dates to be within a year max for Eb3

Not sure I understand. Can you please explain ?

[newyorker123]

Esteemed Gurus, can anyone please tell me how many Indians/Chinese waiting for GC, who had their I140 approved by 2013 end ?
Maybe just a rough idea ?
Trying to figure out number of people whose I140 has been approved more than 5 years back, and are waiting

[kb2013]

Has anybody's I-140 been revoked by a previous employer? If yes,
does it show as revoked in uscis case status page?

[waitingsoldier]

I have applied for I-485 concurrently with I-140 just before Christmas of 2018, I have not received the biometrics appointment letter so far. Many colleagues who filed along with me received it last week, is there a general timeline for issuing biometrics appointment letter? There a one or two others like me who are yet to receive it as well, so was wondering if it is normal. I received the I-485 receipt notice last week.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Has anybody's I-140 been revoked by a previous employer? If yes,
does it show as revoked in uscis case status page?

My I-140 was revoked by my previous employer and I got a NOID from USCIS. I hired Murthy and responded to NOID. The rule is that the Employer cannot revoke I-140 after 180 days. I remember the status of my I-485 showing status as NOID, but don't remember what status my I-140 had.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Have a question. I am a physician. My PD is May, 2011 in EB2 India. My employer has given a go ahead to downgrade to EB3 as long as I bear the cost of downgrading. My lawyer is willing to do downgrade also from EB2 to EB3.

Do you guys recommend filing for downgrade as early as possible or do I have the luxury of waiting for 6-7 months and then decide based on the PD movement in visa bulletin? Would you recommend concurrent filing in EB3 instead of downgrading? What is the time do you think approximately to reach the date of May, 2011 under EB3?

I am not a numbers guy and don't have the capability to crunch numbers and data as some of you do. So I would appreciate some input based on your calculations and predictions.

Thanks in advance.

[EB22010Dec]

Have a question. I am a physician. My PD is May, 2011 in EB2 India. My employer has given a go ahead to downgrade to EB3 as long as I bear the cost of downgrading. My lawyer is willing to do downgrade also from EB2 to EB3.

Do you guys recommend filing for downgrade as early as possible or do I have the luxury of waiting for 6-7 months and then decide based on the PD movement in visa bulletin? Would you recommend concurrent filing in EB3 instead of downgrading? What is the time do you think approximately to reach the date of May, 2011 under EB3?

I am not a numbers guy and don't have the capability to crunch numbers and data as some of you do. So I would appreciate some input based on your calculations and predictions.

Thanks in advance.



Can one of the guru's publish a simple table like bellow, it would help so many of us -

---------------EB3 FAD----------------EB3 FD
2019 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2020 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2021 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2022 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2023 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX

Aceman, excaliber, YT ... call out all of you guys ..

[abcx13]

Why? What is the harm if with the same company using the same PERM? Then you can file I485 using either EB2 or EB3 depending on whichever category becomes available first, no?


EB2 is exceptional, Eb3 is skilled. When you downgrade to EB3 on the same PERM used for EB2, you are notifying USCIS that PERM is last being used for a skilled position.
You are killing your EB2 petition by filing for EB3 - 140 when dates are not even current. That would be the harm you are doing to yourself.

I don't understand why the EB2 petition would be killed. Surely a job that requires a Masters also requires a Bachelor's and you can be processed in the lower category. It doesn't devalue the PERM to a less skilled position as far as I can tell because the job still requires the Masters?

[sanjeevtrivedi]

There are around 34K original petitions between May 2010- June 2011 ( Eb2+Eb3 combined)

I think EB3 I will be FAD May-Jul 2010 by September 2019. Then slowly we might see the downgrade porting starts. EB3 I might not have a ton of petitions because once EB2-I went June 2011 current for few days which was later revoked.

To clear EB2-I backlog until April 2010 will take atleast 2.5-3 years at this pace, however not a lot will downgrade as they already have I-485 and frankly its not advisable.

I think are around 34K petitions ( EB2+EB3, original which translates nearly 68K total petitions). So lets assume that EB2-I quota will still be clearing backlog. So it might take around 6-7 years to clear June 2011 (Both EB2 and EB3)

Is my understanding correct ? Out of 34K petitions how many could be in (Duplicate, people moved out of US etc).

[kb2013]

My I-140 was revoked by my previous employer and I got a NOID from USCIS. I hired Murthy and responded to NOID. The rule is that the Employer cannot revoke I-140 after 180 days. I remember the status of my I-485 showing status as NOID, but don't remember what status my I-140 had.

Thanks! Looks like employers will have no need to revoke and will not likely put the effort to revoke after 180 days.

https://www.litwinlaw.com/blog/2016/11/i-140-irrevocable-after-180-days-of-approval.shtml

So, it appears that, if the previous I-140 position is still available, one can resume green card process with previous employer anytime.
Exploring options if my EB2 to EB3 downgrade does not go fine. The lawyers are trying to discourage and scare me at each step.

[waitingsoldier]

My priority date is December 2009 and my I-485 was filed concurrently with I-140 just before Christmas of 2018. I have received the I-485 receipt notice last week, but yet to receive the biometrics appointment letter. Many of my colleagues who filed with me (on the same date) have received biometrics last week, is this wait time normal in my case? Please suggest.

[waitingsoldier]

My priority date is December 2009 and my I-485 was filed concurrently with I-140 just before Christmas of 2018. I have received the I-485 receipt notice last week, but yet to receive the biometrics appointment letter. Many of my colleagues who filed with me (on the same date) have received biometrics last week, is this wait time normal in my case? Please suggest.

[excalibur123]

Have a question. I am a physician. My PD is May, 2011 in EB2 India. My employer has given a go ahead to downgrade to EB3 as long as I bear the cost of downgrading. My lawyer is willing to do downgrade also from EB2 to EB3.

Do you guys recommend filing for downgrade as early as possible or do I have the luxury of waiting for 6-7 months and then decide based on the PD movement in visa bulletin? Would you recommend concurrent filing in EB3 instead of downgrading? What is the time do you think approximately to reach the date of May, 2011 under EB3?

I am not a numbers guy and don't have the capability to crunch numbers and data as some of you do. So I would appreciate some input based on your calculations and predictions.

Thanks in advance.

Well I think you have enough time on hand to wait for this. It is not reaching 2011 for EB3 for another year and s half. The biggest variable is hindrances to downporting.
I imagine eb2 consistently behind by 6 months and no more when the dust settles.

[Kumar2014]

I have EB3 August 2010 date and has been with same employer till now, never ported. Now am in a situation where I am almost close to get an offer from a company I want to be in. New employer is not sure of when they start GC process and which category. HR didn’t know any immigration details to start with. How confident that we see Aug 2010 for FD this year. This is tough situation for me to make a decision.. waited long but things turned now for good or bad. I don’t want to be in EB2 kind fiasco (dates retrogressed like in past) if I continue same job or start new GC without knowing when and what... I appreciate if you can help in providing your visibility about EB3 FD and FAD expectation.. TIA

[desiman]

When changing job on EAD, what pre-cautions should be taken care. My case is from 2009 and a lot of technologies are changed in last 10 years.... plus my role/salary has also changed... I am trying to find out how would it be possible to change the job if a good offer comes on way.

[sanjeevtrivedi]

Can one of the guru's publish a simple table like bellow, it would help so many of us -

---------------EB3 FAD----------------EB3 FD
2019 Sep-----Apr 2010--------------XXXXXXX
2020 Sep-----Aug 2010--------------XXXXXXX (Downgrade starts and it will move slowly)
2021 Sep-----Dec 2010--------------XXXXXXX (by Sep 2021 most likely EB2- April 10 will get cleared)
2022 Sep-----Apr 2011------------ XXXXXXX
2023 Sep---- Aug 2011------------XXXXXXX


Aceman, excaliber, YT ... call out all of you guys ..

Sorry, I was not asked but still putting my thoughts

[excalibur123]

Can one of the guru's publish a simple table like bellow, it would help so many of us -

---------------EB3 FAD----------------EB3 FD
2019 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2020 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2021 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2022 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX
2023 Sep-----XXXXXXX--------------XXXXXXX

Aceman, excaliber, YT ... call out all of you guys ..

It is nearly impossible to predict so far out. Even if one estimates EB2 numbers who can downport, the spillover numbers for both EB2 and EB3 cannot be predicted.

EB3 FD won't change any more this year as demand is already captured, and FAD would go upto end of 2009. One can expect some downport pressure from late 2009 EB2s even if they have EADs. And I expect a very high percentage of EB3s who ported initially to downport too. So date would go into 2010 but then retrogress back to 2009.

And from next year EB3 FAD would move by about 4-5 months per year - primarily due to downporting pressure from EB2. That's unless downporting faces some major hurdles like adverse decisions by USCIS. If not EB2 guys from 2010 onwards are not going to wait 3-4 years for their date to get current. Barring USCIS decisions, I expect EB2 guys to get around their hurdles with employers or lawyers which may prevent them to downport.

[EB32010]

It is nearly impossible to predict so far out. Even if one estimates EB2 numbers who can downport, the spillover numbers for both EB2 and EB3 cannot be predicted.

EB3 FD won't change any more this year as demand is already captured, and FAD would go upto end of 2009. One can expect some downport pressure from late 2009 EB2s even if they have EADs. And I expect a very high percentage of EB3s who ported initially to downport too. So date would go into 2010 but then retrogress back to 2009.

And from next year EB3 FAD would move by about 4-5 months per year - primarily due to downporting pressure from EB2. That's unless downporting faces some major hurdles like adverse decisions by USCIS. If not EB2 guys from 2010 onwards are not going to wait 3-4 years for their date to get current. Barring USCIS decisions, I expect EB2 guys to get around their hurdles with employers or lawyers which may prevent them to downport.
FD will change in either March or April for sure. It’s just USCIS won’t honor it.

Your prediction of Dec 2009 is an extremely pessimistic opinion. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. So it will go well beyond Dec 2009 this FY.

I like the prediction of Sanjeev. Except that in Sept 2020 FAD will reach Oct 2010 and in Sept 2021 it will reach Feb 2011.

[optimista]

I expect filing dates to be within a year max for Eb3

Hi Aceman
Need your advice on my situation. I will try to keep it brief, but it is complicated :-). I am in my 12th year of H1-B. Joined employer A in 2008. Got I-140 in EB3 followed by Eb2 approved with a PD of August 1, 2010. Joined employer B, recently moved to employer C. I have one more I-140 approved with employer B but I do not intend to go back to them if at all in case the date becomes current for many reasons. Thankfully my original employer, A is supportive and willing to process my GC further whenever the date become current. Now my questions on which I really need your valuable advice/feedback are as below:
1. Since EB3 dates are moving faster, I plan to utilize my first I-140 approval in EB3. My past employer is still holding on to it and is ready to process it further for me. Does this plan sounds OK, or are there any potential issues?
2. Does that employer need to have a project in hand with an end client to show on paper that he can afford to hire me, it just his intention is enough? Because if a new project is required, I can manage that. I can just go through him for my ongoing project.
3. What other 'things' I need to take care of for this if any
4. And here is the most important question I have for you (it is OK if you want to skip any of the above questions for time/length purpose. As per CO, EB3 final action dates will move 3 months each for next 3 months. Which means, by May-19, dates will move to 17-Jan-10. So the question is when will I be able to apply for EAD/AP? I.e. when will filing date pass the PD of 1/8/2010 and DHS will be ready to accept filing dates? Will really help if you can shade some light on this. No one is paying much attention to FD because mostly people have EAD/AP, but I am desperately looking forward to reach that milestone.

[optimista]

I expect filing dates to be within a year max for Eb3

Hi Aceman
Need your advice on my situation. I will try to keep it brief, but it is complicated :-). I am in my 12th year of H1-B. Joined employer A in 2008. Got I-140 in EB3 followed by Eb2 approved with a PD of August 1, 2010. Joined employer B, recently moved to employer C. I have one more I-140 approved with employer B but I do not intend to go back to them if at all in case the date becomes current for many reasons. Thankfully my original employer, A is supportive and willing to process my GC further whenever the date become current. Now my questions on which I really need your valuable advice/feedback are as below:
1. Since EB3 dates are moving faster, I plan to utilize my first I-140 approval in EB3. My past employer is still holding on to it and is ready to process it further for me. Does this plan sounds OK, or are there any potential issues?
2. Does that employer need to have a project in hand with an end client to show on paper that he can afford to hire me, it just his intention is enough? Because if a new project is required, I can manage that. I can just go through him for my ongoing project.
3. What other 'things' I need to take care of for this if any
4. And here is the most important question I have for you (it is OK if you want to skip any of the above questions for time/length purpose. As per CO, EB3 final action dates will move 3 months each for next 3 months. Which means, by May-19, dates will move to 17-Jan-10. So the question is when will I be able to apply for EAD/AP? I.e. when will filing date pass the PD of 1/8/2010 and DHS will be ready to accept filing dates? Will really help if you can shade some light on this. No one is paying much attention to FD because mostly people have EAD/AP, but I am desperately looking forward to reach that milestone.

[excalibur123]

FD will change in either March or April for sure. It’s just USCIS won’t honor it.

Your prediction of Dec 2009 is an extremely pessimistic opinion. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. So it will go well beyond Dec 2009 this FY.

I like the prediction of Sanjeev. Except that in Sept 2020 FAD will reach Oct 2010 and in Sept 2021 it will reach Feb 2011.

You can call it whatever - I just go by common sense. I predict based on what i would do if I were in others shoes. If I were an EB2 from late 2009 onwards I would be thinking ALL the time EVERYDAY as to how I can downport and end this nightmare.

Just take a look at how relentless was porting from eb3 to eb2. EB2 was stuck in 2008 for 6 years - even when EB3s had EADs till Jul 2007.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Have a question. I am a physician. My PD is May, 2011 in EB2 India. My employer has given a go ahead to downgrade to EB3 as long as I bear the cost of downgrading. My lawyer is willing to do downgrade also from EB2 to EB3.

Do you guys recommend filing for downgrade as early as possible or do I have the luxury of waiting for 6-7 months and then decide based on the PD movement in visa bulletin? Would you recommend concurrent filing in EB3 instead of downgrading? What is the time do you think approximately to reach the date of May, 2011 under EB3?

I am not a numbers guy and don't have the capability to crunch numbers and data as some of you do. So I would appreciate some input based on your calculations and predictions.

Thanks in advance.

If the modus operandi is to file a fresh EB3 PERM, then you might as well start immediately. However if it is a downgrade without a new PERM, then you can wait a few months to see the trend.

[EB32010]

You can call it whatever - I just go by common sense. I predict based on what i would do if I were in others shoes. If I were an EB2 from late 2009 onwards I would be thinking ALL the time EVERYDAY as to how I can downport and end this nightmare.

Just take a look at how relentless was porting from eb3 to eb2. EB2 was stuck in 2008 for 6 years - even when EB3s had EADs till Jul 2007.

At the end of the day we all are speculating:). No one knows how exactly things will shape up. That been said, you said it’s common sense to end up at Dec 2009 this FY. But the numbers simply doesn’t match the hypothesis. EB3 is widely expected to get 6k this FY. And I don’t think there are 6k folks waiting for AOS in EB3 until Dec 2009. That’s why I said it will go beyond 2009 this FY. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. If that trend continue, then EB3 might even get 8-10k. I will pleasantly surprised if that happens though.

Also you have mentioned that folks with EAD will also think of downgrade. I know many friends who are in this category and they don’t even think for a second to downgrade. And that makes sense for them for variety of reasons. Even if there are some who think to downgrade, it’s going to be less than 5%. I am absolutely positive about it.

I understand and respect your opinion. We will just agree to disagree :)

[Kumar2014]

You admins ... may I know why my post is not allowed... I asked an opinion on dates, why is it not posted? This happened in past and you are doing it again?

[gcconnect]

At the end of the day we all are speculating:). No one knows how exactly things will shape up. That been said, you said it’s common sense to end up at Dec 2009 this FY. But the numbers simply doesn’t match the hypothesis. EB3 is widely expected to get 6k this FY. And I don’t think there are 6k folks waiting for AOS in EB3 until Dec 2009. That’s why I said it will go beyond 2009 this FY. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. If that trend continue, then EB3 might even get 8-10k. I will pleasantly surprised if that happens though.

Also you have mentioned that folks with EAD will also think of downgrade. I know many friends who are in this category and they don’t even think for a second to downgrade. And that makes sense for them for variety of reasons. Even if there are some who think to downgrade, it’s going to be less than 5%. I am absolutely positive about it.

I understand and respect your opinion. We will just agree to disagree :)

I don't think most of the people in EB2I with EAD go for downgrade. Checked with some guys and they are thinking that high downgrade trend will be advantage for them and not sure this will result struck in the EB3I queue, which will end up even more trouble rather than waiting 2 to 3 years.

[EB2/eb3]

To what date in 2009 eb3 might retrogress to?

[AceMan]

At the end of the day we all are speculating:). No one knows how exactly things will shape up. That been said, you said it’s common sense to end up at Dec 2009 this FY. But the numbers simply doesn’t match the hypothesis. EB3 is widely expected to get 6k this FY. And I don’t think there are 6k folks waiting for AOS in EB3 until Dec 2009. That’s why I said it will go beyond 2009 this FY. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. If that trend continue, then EB3 might even get 8-10k. I will pleasantly surprised if that happens though.

Also you have mentioned that folks with EAD will also think of downgrade. I know many friends who are in this category and they don’t even think for a second to downgrade. And that makes sense for them for variety of reasons. Even if there are some who think to downgrade, it’s going to be less than 5%. I am absolutely positive about it.

I understand and respect your opinion. We will just agree to disagree :)

Philippines is not current yet, and they have the first right, followed by South Korea on EB3. I wish we get 10 K for this year, but will take anything more than 7K as a real positive. I am repeating downgraders are not going to impact EB3 in FY 2019. If we are getting numbers beyond that, the last quarter of FY 19 will see a push forward beyond May 2010.

While, I understand my friend Excalibur's view point, like you I have to disagree his view here purely based on the numbers. I know even he wishes his numbers to be wrong.

[AceMan]

---------------EB3 FAD----------------EB3 FD
2019 Sep-----1st May, 2010--------------XXXXXXX
2020 Sep-----1st Jan, 2012--------------XXXXXXX
2021 Sep-----1st Jan 2014--------------XXXXXXX
2022 Sep-----2015--------------XXXXXXX
2023 Sep-----2016--------------XXXXXXX

After 2022, I expect the forward movement of 1 year for every calendar year

[mcmilers]

@Aceman no such table to us EB2 guys? is it even possible to predict?

[excalibur123]

Philippines is not current yet, and they have the first right, followed by South Korea on EB3. I wish we get 10 K for this year, but will take anything more than 7K as a real positive. I am repeating downgraders are not going to impact EB3 in FY 2019. If we are getting numbers beyond that, the last quarter of FY 19 will see a push forward beyond May 2010.

While, I understand my friend Excalibur's view point, like you I have to disagree his view here purely based on the numbers. I know even he wishes his numbers to be wrong.

I wish I am wrong too .. :)

But I studied the EB3->EB2 porting which happened from 2012-18 in great detail. I understand motivations of people who stare at long wait, and that even a small percentage means big numbers. Yes some of them would be willing to wait another 2 years, and some would be stuck due to lack of support from employers, but even a small percentage of downporters can mean big numbers.

I expect 8K EB3 = going to 4K EB3 2009 + 2K to carry over from FY 2018 + 2K going to EB2 2009 downporters

Another way to look at this is EB3 FD has stopped at Apr 2010 which implies the demand has been captured for this year. And this is without taking into account any downporting that would happen when FADs start crossing for each of the EB2s and they can do concurrent filing for downporting. CO cannot have a visibility on something like that. So the date is likely to end up much before Apr 2010.

[EB22010Dec]

I wish I am wrong too .. :)

But I studied the EB3->EB2 porting which happened from 2012-18 in great detail. I understand motivations of people who stare at long wait, and that even a small percentage means big numbers. Yes some of them would be willing to wait another 2 years, and some would be stuck due to lack of support from employers, but even a small percentage of downporters can mean big numbers.

I expect 8K EB3 = going to 4K EB3 2009 + 2K to carry over from FY 2018 + 2K going to EB2 2009 downporters

Another way to look at this is EB3 FD has stopped at Apr 2010 which implies the demand has been captured for this year. And this is without taking into account any downporting that would happen when FADs start crossing for each of the EB2s and they can do concurrent filing for downporting. CO cannot have a visibility on something like that. So the date is likely to end up much before Apr 2010.

The only difference between then and now is - now if they port and apply for 485, they have to go to interview. Where as if they stay in the same queue, they will get GC eventually.

[AceMan]

@Aceman no such table to us EB2 guys? is it even possible to predict?

It is very simple. We have 14 K till May 2010 with EAD, almost every one will stay put here. If EB2 I gets 5000 a year till FY 2021 end, it can pass May 2010

[excalibur123]

The only difference between then and now is - now if they port and apply for 485, they have to go to interview. Where as if they stay in the same queue, they will get GC eventually.

Again small percentages still mean big numbers. Unless there is a scare from USCIS decisions.

Let's wait for next 3 VBs - even though they said EB3 FAD will move by 3 months each = 9 months, I would say it will move by only 7 months in total.

[EB2/eb3]

Again small percentages still mean big numbers. Unless there is a scare from USCIS decisions.

Let's wait for next 3 VBs - even though they said EB3 FAD will move by 3 months each = 9 months, I would say it will move by only 7 months in total.
Dec 1st 2009 is what you are thinking?

[AceMan]

I wish I am wrong too .. :)

But I studied the EB3->EB2 porting which happened from 2012-18 in great detail. I understand motivations of people who stare at long wait, and that even a small percentage means big numbers. Yes some of them would be willing to wait another 2 years, and some would be stuck due to lack of support from employers, but even a small percentage of downporters can mean big numbers.

I expect 8K EB3 = going to 4K EB3 2009 + 2K to carry over from FY 2018 + 2K going to EB2 2009 downporters

Another way to look at this is EB3 FD has stopped at Apr 2010 which implies the demand has been captured for this year. And this is without taking into account any downporting that would happen when FADs start crossing for each of the EB2s and they can do concurrent filing for downporting. CO cannot have a visibility on something like that. So the date is likely to end up much before Apr 2010.


The downporters before May 2010, you are calculating already had a prior EB3 petition. That's why, I don't see them as an impact. Post May 2010, your numbers will start showing up. Hence, I said May 2010 for FY 19.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

The downporters before May 2010, you are calculating already had a prior EB3 petition. That's why, I don't see them as an impact. Post May 2010, your numbers will start showing up. Hence, I said May 2010 for FY 19.

Hopefully in just a few weeks, an Immigration Bill gets passed and that will change all the parameters of the predictions :rolleyes:

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Hopefully in just a few weeks, an Immigration Bill gets passed and that will change all the parameters of the predictions :rolleyes:

You have mentioned this a couple of times so I am interested in knowing what bill has a chance of passing? It looks like things have only gotten more contentious since the new Congress.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

You have mentioned this a couple of times so I am interested in knowing what bill has a chance of passing? It looks like things have only gotten more contentious since the new Congress.

I posted links in the Bills, Rules and Politics section..

[iatiam]

The only difference between then and now is - now if they port and apply for 485, they have to go to interview. Where as if they stay in the same queue, they will get GC eventually.
This is not true. Please stop spreading lies

[EB22010Dec]

This is not true. Please stop spreading lies


I apologize, my intention obviously is not to misguide people.
I have been told that by some of my friends who already have an EAD in EB2.

[qesehmk]

You admins ... may I know why my post is not allowed... I asked an opinion on dates, why is it not posted? This happened in past and you are doing it again?
Hello Kumar,

My apologies for the delay. This happens only for new users. In order to limit spam and bots, we require first few posts be manually approved. After a while your posts will appear instantaneously just like others.

[swaugh]

This is not true. Please stop spreading lies

That is pretty harsh. I believed the same as "EB22010Dec", if you think that is not true then please provide more evidence and share the correct information.

[bikenlalan]

A more detailed prediction from CO, http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-through-may-as-of-january-2019/

As per CO, EB-2 WW should remain current through this FY. So, definitely some horizontal spillover for EB-2I.
EB-3 Philippines should progress aggressively but can be retrogressed later in the FY as demand rises.

[Kumar2014]

I have EB3 August 2010 date and has been with same employer till now, never ported. Now am in a situation where I am almost close to get an offer from a company I want to be in. New employer is not sure of when they start GC process and which category. HR didn’t know any immigration details to start with. How confident that we see Aug 2010 for FD this year. This is tough situation for me to make a decision.. waited long but things turned now for good or bad. I don’t want to be in EB2 kind fiasco (dates retrogressed like in past) if I continue same job or start new GC without knowing when and what... I appreciate if you can help in providing your visibility about EB3 FD and FAD expectation.. TIA

[Kumar2014]

Sorry about that ... I got it now and reposted my query for expert suggestions
Hello Kumar,

My apologies for the delay. This happens only for new users. In order to limit spam and bots, we require first few posts be manually approved. After a while your posts will appear instantaneously just like others.

[sanjeevtrivedi]

All of us are making speculations here with some assumptions. The key issue is for the people from EB2 to EB3 (India) is whether to downgrade or not and if yes, when.

-I think for people who already have EAD and are in upto May 2010 bucket, they have to be very careful - If they stay in line, its a 2 to 2.5 year wait. For people until Dec 2009, it could be a 1 to 1.5 year wait, so its individual opinion, how he views risk versus reward. Based on my discussions with several individuals, most of them are not doing or getting recommendation to not do

- The real test is for people from May 2010 onward, who want to jump the boat. Here it has to be a cautious approach. Between May 2010 and July 2010, will be the people who benefits the most. After that it should be wait and watch until FAD becomes current. Remember the CO has said that if lot of people jump, EB2 can have favorable date and also he doesn't see the dates for both the categories having significant date

I know a lot of people here are anxious, but take a calculated approach and adopt the wait and watch approach, especially after July 2010. Because any significant downgrade might clog the EB3 line and you don't want to jump back to EB2 again. CO is expecting a ton of them jumping the boat and this might create a favorable situation for EB2

[AceMan]

Hopefully in just a few weeks, an Immigration Bill gets passed and that will change all the parameters of the predictions :rolleyes:

We had the story running from 2011 with HR 3012 all the way up to HR 392 in 2017. I am more keen to observe the Eb3 movement over the next 8-9 months, than these London bridge sellers.

[sanjeevtrivedi]

I posted links in the Bills, Rules and Politics section..

I would not consider anything happening on immigration reform front anytime shortly, especially related to country cap.

Unfortunately people have completely misused the EB1 category. Due to that most of our backlog pains have come. If EB1 misuse can be fixed, it will relieve some pain

[gcvijay]

We had the story running from 2011 with HR 3012 all the way up to HR 392 in 2017. I am more keen to observe the Eb3 movement over the next 8-9 months, than these London bridge sellers.

If EB3 had to retrogress at some point due to heavy downgrade volume's as per CO's check ( https://www.murthy.com/2019/01/24/february-2019-visa-bulletin-check-in-insight-into-cause-of-eb3-india-movement/ ) to what dates will EB3 retrogress to?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

The recommendation from my attorney for my PD in May 2010 was simple. If FAD for EB3 gets there this year per the 3 month movement per VB estimate laid out in the most recent bulletin, we will file EB3 I-140/I-485. If not, no action.

[EB32010]

All of us are making speculations here with some assumptions. The key issue is for the people from EB2 to EB3 (India) is whether to downgrade or not and if yes, when.

-I think for people who already have EAD and are in upto May 2010 bucket, they have to be very careful - If they stay in line, its a 2 to 2.5 year wait. For people until Dec 2009, it could be a 1 to 1.5 year wait, so its individual opinion, how he views risk versus reward. Based on my discussions with several individuals, most of them are not doing or getting recommendation to not do

- The real test is for people from May 2010 onward, who want to jump the boat. Here it has to be a cautious approach. Between May 2010 and July 2010, will be the people who benefits the most. After that it should be wait and watch until FAD becomes current. Remember the CO has said that if lot of people jump, EB2 can have favorable date and also he doesn't see the dates for both the categories having significant date

I know a lot of people here are anxious, but take a calculated approach and adopt the wait and watch approach, especially after July 2010. Because any significant downgrade might clog the EB3 line and you don't want to jump back to EB2 again. CO is expecting a ton of them jumping the boat and this might create a favorable situation for EB2
My PD is mid July EB3. I am anxious to see when my PD will reach FAD. I am hoping (more like a wish:)) I will get GC in my hand on Jan 2021.

[EB32010]

The recommendation from my attorney for my PD in May 2010 was simple. If FAD for EB3 gets there this year per the 3 month movement per VB estimate laid out in the most recent bulletin, we will file EB3 I-140/I-485. If not, no action.

Even though prediction said 3 months per bulletin until May, I dont think it will happen. IMO, the big push will come in July. I am anxious to see the July bulletin. Whoever is planning to downgrade (Jan 2010 and beyond) need to wait until July bulletin and wait for CO check-in after that.

[rocketfast]

Even though prediction said 3 months per bulletin until May, I dont think it will happen

IMO, another way to look at is that, CO's prediction includes some "downgrades" (as CO keeps talking about it). And the downgrades may simply not happen this FY. So, you may again end up helping EB3-China with some spillover of unused EB3-I GCs (like last year).

[HarepathekaIntezar]

We had the story running from 2011 with HR 3012 all the way up to HR 392 in 2017. I am more keen to observe the Eb3 movement over the next 8-9 months, than these London bridge sellers.

You maybe right. But I am optimistic about the Immigration Bill being passed. Simple reason, Republicans will get panned if they agree to just the DACA+TPS concessions without getting some Legal Immigration based concessions for a piece of the wall.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

IMO, another way to look at is that, CO's prediction includes some "downgrades" (as CO keeps talking about it). And the downgrades may simply not happen this FY. So, you may again end up helping EB3-China with some spillover of unused EB3-I GCs (like last year).

Any 'downgrades' would have to have already happened by now if they are to be counted in this FY Quota. I have always found fault with CO for not doing his math right. He is the reason EB3I have lost a ton of visas over the previous few years to EB2.

[iatiam]

That is pretty harsh. I believed the same as "EB22010Dec", if you think that is not true then please provide more evidence and share the correct information.

If you have filed your 485 after March 2017, you will need to have an interview for sure. For other cases, it is not required. USCIS has clarified this with a memo. The burden of proof in not on me, but on those people who are spreading rumors to dissuade others from downgrading.

Iatiam

[iatiam]

My bad, perhaps I was too harsh.

I am seeing this being circulated everywhere with no proof so I lost it

[sanjeevtrivedi]

You maybe right. But I am optimistic about the Immigration Bill being passed. Simple reason, Republicans will get panned if they agree to just the DACA+TPS concessions without getting some Legal Immigration based concessions for a piece of the wall.

Sorry, this is pipe dream and will not happen anything shortly. We should live in a world where we know this are political rhetoric, infact DACA/TPS can happen but unfortunately anything like happening similar to 392 are slim to none

[sanjeevtrivedi]

The recommendation from my attorney for my PD in May 2010 was simple. If FAD for EB3 gets there this year per the 3 month movement per VB estimate laid out in the most recent bulletin, we will file EB3 I-140/I-485. If not, no action.

I think that's logical, I know everyone wants to jump the line immediately. The safest way is to wait till FAD becomes current. Remember the environment when upgrades was very different. Last couple of years with some many new policies and uncertainty created, you have to play very careful. You don't want to risk things.

Lot of people are encouraging here to downgrade ASAP, considering the environment we are, make sure you take a calculated risk

[sanjeevtrivedi]

I think if its 2010 July EB3, you can easily assume to would get that, may be earlier than that

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Sorry, this is pipe dream and will not happen anything shortly. We should live in a world where we know this are political rhetoric, infact DACA/TPS can happen but unfortunately anything like happening similar to 392 are slim to none

We got close on a couple of occasions. I see no reason to not become law this time around.

[Ind2009]

I think that's logical, I know everyone wants to jump the line immediately. The safest way is to wait till FAD becomes current. Remember the environment when upgrades was very different. Last couple of years with some many new policies and uncertainty created, you have to play very careful. You don't want to risk things.

Lot of people are encouraging here to downgrade ASAP, considering the environment we are, make sure you take a calculated risk


For anyone who has an EAD in EB2-I and have a PD before May 2010 and had filed for their AOS before Mar 2017 then I would suggest they hang in there tight and don't fall into the trap of jumping the queue.
If you don't have an EAD then please look at the progress of the future visa bulletins and downgrade when you get a chance.

Many people are underestimating the impact of personal interviews. The wait time for interviews at most field offices across the country is between 8 and 22 months. Based on the response in various forums it is taking more than a year for an interview date after your date becomes current and this wait time is only going to increase with every passing day. Also note we need to compete for a time slot at the field office among so many other categories including family based , Employment based AOS, naturalization interviews and a zillion other things.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

For anyone who has an EAD in EB2-I and have a PD before May 2010 and had filed for their AOS before Mar 2017 then I would suggest they hang in there tight and don't fall into the trap of jumping the queue.
If you don't have an EAD then please look at the progress of the future visa bulletins and downgrade when you get a chance.

Many people are underestimating the impact of personal interviews. The wait time for interviews at most field offices across the country is between 8 and 22 months. Based on the response in various forums it is taking more than a year for an interview date after your date becomes current and this wait time is only going to increase with every passing day. Also note we need to compete for a time slot at the field office among so many other categories including family based , Employment based AOS, naturalization interviews and a zillion other things.

Any links to the forums with information about the Interviews taking that long? I know a friend who got scheduled within 6 months of filing for AOS.

[Ind2009]

Any links to the forums with information about the Interviews taking that long? I know a friend who got scheduled within 6 months of filing for AOS.

There could be exceptions based on the location. You can also check Trackitt based on each month filing (not sure how many of them keep the status up to date)
My personal experience is based on my team mate who had filed for AOS in April 2017 had his interview in Dec 2018 at Lawrence, MA field office.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

There could be exceptions based on the location. You can also check Trackitt based on each month filing (not sure how many of them keep the status up to date)
My personal experience is based on my team mate who had filed for AOS in April 2017 had his interview in Dec 2018 at Lawrence, MA field office.

That is exceptionally long time for sure. My friend had filed in April 2018 and he got interview in October 2018 and card in Nov 2018.

[Ind2009]

That is exceptionally long time for sure. My friend had filed in April 2018 and he got interview in October 2018 and card in Nov 2018.

Its hard to tell what is an exception.
I will be able to update my own case as it unfolds over the next few months / years.
My PD is Mar 2009 EB3 India got a chance to file AOS for the first time last month as I choose not to jump to to EB2 when I had a chance in 2011.
I don't expect so see my EAD / AP before July and my H1 Extension is still pending for a decision.
My FAD will be current from Feb 1st (3 more days) and then the wait begins...............

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Its hard to tell what is an exception.
I will be able to update my own case as it unfolds over the next few months / years.
My PD is Mar 2009 EB3 India got a chance to file AOS for the first time last month as I choose not to jump to to EB2 when I had a chance in 2011.
I don't expect so see my EAD / AP before July and my H1 Extension is still pending for a decision.
My FAD will be current from Feb 1st (3 more days) and then the wait begins...............

You should be greened in this FY.

[optimista]

Hi Admin
When will you publish my post? Waiting for it.

Thanks

[Ind2009]

You should be greened in this FY.

If it happens then it will be a miracle, but my realistic expectation is sometime towards end of 2020 or early 2021.
That is one of the reasons I believe there will be spillover from the EB3 India cases whose interviews would not be possible to schedule this fiscal year and those VISA numbers need to used somewhere.
I will be really happy if it can be used for EB2 India folks that do not require an interview.
I am one of the few who can vouch the importance of EB2 India line moving ahead as it helps to maintain a balance.

[EB32010]

I think if its 2010 July EB3, you can easily assume to would get that, may be earlier than that

Sorry I didn’t get you.

[greenjpr]

Hello Gurus,
My PD is June-2010 [missed my JAN-2009 PERM since I did not file I140]. I am with the same employer for the past 9+ yrs. When I checked with my attorney, she mentioned that I need to file new PERM. I was told that if we downgrade using old PERM during GC interview, they might give us trouble. Is this a valid risk to consider? Missed so many managerial positions due to GC. Getting EAD will help me to join full time with a good destination. I dont bother about GC as I lost hope.

[sanjeevtrivedi]

Hello Gurus,
My PD is June-2010 [missed my JAN-2009 PERM since I did not file I140]. I am with the same employer for the past 9+ yrs. When I checked with my attorney, she mentioned that I need to file new PERM. I was told that if we downgrade using old PERM during GC interview, they might give us trouble. Is this a valid risk to consider? Missed so many managerial positions due to GC. Getting EAD will help me to join full time with a good destination. I dont bother about GC as I lost hope.

I assume you are EB2- June 2010. I would say if the attorney is pointing out to you something, she is making you aware of the risks. I would recommend to take a second opinion. There would be lot of people ready to offer advise, but every case is unique and it might give you some insights

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Hello Gurus,
My PD is June-2010 [missed my JAN-2009 PERM since I did not file I140]. I am with the same employer for the past 9+ yrs. When I checked with my attorney, she mentioned that I need to file new PERM. I was told that if we downgrade using old PERM during GC interview, they might give us trouble. Is this a valid risk to consider? Missed so many managerial positions due to GC. Getting EAD will help me to join full time with a good destination. I dont bother about GC as I lost hope.

If everything is above board (Maintenance of Status), then I don't see any risk. Lady luck favors the brave!

[newyorker123]

We guys sure have some patience making these grandiose 2-3-4 year plans. In reality, we are all so done in.
Solution, as I have said before, is just EB1A / EB1B / EB1C.

Ohh I just realized I became a Sensei from a Sophomore ! Congratulations to me !

[texas_]

Do anyone have latest Perm approval for January 2019 ?

[Spectator]

Do anyone have latest Perm approval for January 2019 ?

There's been 4,820 certifications in January so far (1-28).

[sale3609]

Gurus

Need your opinions.

1. My current employer initially applied in EB3 with April 2010 PD.
2. I did my Masters and was promoted.
3. Upgraded to EB2.

Please provide me your inputs

[msbmsb]

The downporters before May 2010, you are calculating already had a prior EB3 petition. That's why, I don't see them as an impact. Post May 2010, your numbers will start showing up. Hence, I said May 2010 for FY 19.

This is not completely true. Before May 2010, there were genuine EB2 applications, Most of those who were porting from EB3 were with dates 2008 and prior. I would say a majority of EB2 people in queue today are the original EB2 filers. Some of them are downporting to EB3 by starting a fresh EB3 application

[AceMan]

This is not completely true. Before May 2010, there were genuine EB2 applications, Most of those who were porting from EB3 were with dates 2008 and prior. I would say a majority of EB2 people in queue today are the original EB2 filers. Some of them are downporting to EB3 by starting a fresh EB3 application

You have to read the message in the context of the post for which I responded. The original EB2 filers from May 2009 to April 2010 had the ability to file for their AOS and barring a few unlucky people almost all would have done that in 2012. Their number shows up the demand data as around 14000. Almost all of them in the demand data list are original Eb2 filers. The chance of these people downgrading; very less to make an impact for FY 2019.

[texas_]

There's been 4,820 certifications in January so far (1-28).

Thanks Spec. The number seems low for January and December 2018
Isn't it ?

[excalibur123]

You have to read the message in the context of the post for which I responded. The original EB2 filers from May 2009 to April 2010 had the ability to file for their AOS and barring a few unlucky people almost all would have done that in 2012. Their number shows up the demand data as around 14000. Almost all of them in the demand data list are original Eb2 filers. The chance of these people downgrading; very less to make an impact for FY 2019.

Why, may I ask Aceman?

Isn't downgrade a simple ask of concurrent filing in premium? Yes not all will be able to do it due to lack of employer support, and not all will like the idea of the interview? But won't there be a good percentage which would rather do it and get in 4-5 months rather than wait 2-3 years?

[AceMan]

Why, may I ask Aceman?

Isn't downgrade a simple ask of concurrent filing in premium? Yes not all will be able to do it due to lack of employer support, and not all will like the idea of the interview? But won't there be a good percentage which would rather do it and get in 4-5 months rather than wait 2-3 years?

You are talking about people who have extreme perseverance and waiting for 9 years. They would simply wait out 2-3 years and get their GC without doing anything funny. And they are assured no one is going to upgrade to EB2 before them anymore like earlier. Any spill overs they will get it even faster.

4-5 months is an extremely optimistic number. Premium is if your service center is the same as previous. Otherwise no premium, and it takes 6 months minimum, with any queries add the necessary time frame, along with the chance of dates retrogression.

[mcmilers]

You are talking about people who have extreme perseverance and waiting for 9 years. They would simply wait out 2-3 years and get their GC without doing anything funny. And they are assured no one is going to upgrade to EB2 before them anymore like earlier. Any spill overs they will get it even faster.

4-5 months is an extremely optimistic number. Premium is if your service center is the same as previous. Otherwise no premium, and it takes 6 months minimum, with any queries add the necessary time frame, along with the chance of dates retrogression.

This. I agree with AceMan. I am Feb 2010 EB-2 and am not even planning to ask my company lawyer about downgrade. I work for a big company and just to file a perm app, it takes 1 year for my company. so it is not worth it. only hope is spill over... lots of spill over...

[excalibur123]

You are talking about people who have extreme perseverance and waiting for 9 years. They would simply wait out 2-3 years and get their GC without doing anything funny. And they are assured no one is going to upgrade to EB2 before them anymore like earlier. Any spill overs they will get it even faster.

4-5 months is an extremely optimistic number. Premium is if your service center is the same as previous. Otherwise no premium, and it takes 6 months minimum, with any queries add the necessary time frame, along with the chance of dates retrogression.

hmm, lets hope you are right. Though trackitt is suggesting otherwise.

Also replace 'extreme perseverance' with 'no choice'. :)

[bloddy1]

This. I agree with AceMan. I am Feb 2010 EB-2 and am not even planning to ask my company lawyer about downgrade. I work for a big company and just to file a perm app, it takes 1 year for my company. so it is not worth it. only hope is spill over... lots of spill over...


Same boat here brother, in 5th month awaiting just prevailing wage notification. 1 year for PERM app is actually not bad given where I stand.

[iatiam]

hmm, lets hope you are right. Though trackitt is suggesting otherwise.

Also replace 'extreme perseverance' with 'no choice'. :)

True. Trackit is flooded with people trying to downgrade. Desis are a strange crowd. They will take any route to get GCs

[mcmilers]

Cannot blame Desis or anyone. Chinese did it when they had that option. I think it is basic human behavior. You always try to find the shortest and easiest path.

[EB32010]

hmm, lets hope you are right. Though trackitt is suggesting otherwise.

Also replace 'extreme perseverance' with 'no choice'. :)

Trackitt doesn’t have a single person downgraded who have EAD. I think what Aceman is saying is anyone who have EAD will not downgrade. And I agree with him

[excalibur123]

Cannot blame Desis or anyone. Chinese did it when they had that option. I think it is basic human behavior. You always try to find the shortest and easiest path.

The usage of word short or shorter or shortest would be a mockery here unless that means 18 years, 14 years and 9 years in our cases. :)

[shekhar_kuruk]

True. Trackit is flooded with people trying to downgrade. Desis are a strange crowd. They will take any route to get GCs

This is a strange comment, Desis wait for over a decade to get their green cards, they are not taking any route. All they want is to get it and move on with their lives. After being here for more than 17 years and still not greened, I can certainly empathize will all those folks before me and after me in the long and never ending line. Good luck to everyone.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Trackitt doesn’t have a single person downgraded who have EAD. I think what Aceman is saying is anyone who have EAD will not downgrade. And I agree with him

I still do not agree with Aceman's theory, people will eventually start downgrading to EB3, it is not much of hassle if you are with the same company who has filed the EB2 perm & I 140. Also some of them are just playing the waiting game. I would think if EB3 moves significantly forward than EB2, downgrades will happen. People want closure of this GC process and if they can see a finish line, there will some folks willing to take a risk. My 2 cents.

[EB32010]

I still do not agree with Aceman's theory, people will eventually start downgrading to EB3, it is not much of hassle if you are with the same company who has filed the EB2 perm & I 140. Also some of them are just playing the waiting game. I would think if EB3 moves significantly forward than EB2, downgrades will happen. People want closure of this GC process and if they can see a finish line, there will some folks willing to take a risk. My 2 cents.

The risk of someone who have EAD to downgrade far outweighs the benefit of just staying put in line. If you just stay put, all you have to do is file medicals and Supp J and your GC will come in mail once you become current.

[bluelabel]

There may be people like me as well. I have March 2010 PD with AOS pending since 2012 and I haven't even thought of downgrading to EB3 at all. I would like to wait to get through in EB2 only and hoping some or more of EB2 with AOS pending will downgrade and my priority date would become current sooner than later.

[AceMan]

I still do not agree with Aceman's theory, people will eventually start downgrading to EB3, it is not much of hassle if you are with the same company who has filed the EB2 perm & I 140. Also some of them are just playing the waiting game. I would think if EB3 moves significantly forward than EB2, downgrades will happen. People want closure of this GC process and if they can see a finish line, there will some folks willing to take a risk. My 2 cents.

I said the downgrades are not going to impact Eb3 movement for FY19. Only when Eb3 dates move past May2010, we can see real impact downgrading.
Earliest that can happen would be Jan 2020 bulletin.

[shekhar_kuruk]

The risk of someone who have EAD to downgrade far outweighs the benefit of just staying put in line. If you just stay put, all you have to do is file medicals and Supp J and your GC will come in mail once you become current.
It is not as simple as that, let me put it this way; this is just a theory. Some people will be willing to take the risk. The percentage of people of doing this is debatable. If you suggesting this value will be close to 0, I am just disagreeing with that arbitrary number.

[shekhar_kuruk]

There may be people like me as well. I have March 2010 PD with AOS pending since 2012 and I haven't even thought of downgrading to EB3 at all. I would like to wait to get through in EB2 only and hoping some or more of EB2 with AOS pending will downgrade and my priority date would become current sooner than later.

My priority date is only two months away, but there is so much uncertainty about the finish line, it could happen this year or may be next year. I would suggest you give downgrading a serious thought and talk to your attorney. In the end it is your GC, just saying.

[iatiam]

This is a strange comment, Desis wait for over a decade to get their green cards, they are not taking any route. All they want is to get it and move on with their lives. After being here for more than 17 years and still not greened, I can certainly empathize will all those folks before me and after me in the long and never ending line. Good luck to everyone.

Why do you say it is a strange comment? I just stated a fact. Country cap is a reality. Whether you wait two decades or use a EB1C route to make it quicker is a choice. I have personally seen a lot of people moving to Canada for an year and coming back to file in EB1C which is a misuse in my opinion. More people agree with me than disagree

[EB32010]

I said the downgrades are not going to impact Eb3 movement for FY19. Only when Eb3 dates move past May2010, we can see real impact downgrading.
Earliest that can happen would be Jan 2020 bulletin.

Why do you think it will be Jan 2020 (earliest you said) before it can hit May 2010? My expectation is it will reach March/April 2010 by Sept 2019.

[EB32010]

It is not as simple as that, let me put it this way; this is just a theory. Some people will be willing to take the risk. The percentage of people of doing this is debatable. If you suggesting this value will be close to 0, I am just disagreeing with that arbitrary number.

Ok let me put it this way. As you see from my username my PD is 2010 and I have many many friends who have EAD and still waiting for GC. They just laugh at the notion of downgrading. They will happily renew EAD for FREE and wait for GC to come in mail even if they have to wait for 2-3 years.

[EB22010Dec]

Ok let me put it this way. As you see from my username my PD is 2010 and I have many many friends who have EAD and still waiting for GC. They just laugh at the notion of downgrading. They will happily renew EAD for FREE and wait for GC to come in mail even if they have to wait for 2-3 years.

100% agree with by 'brother' EB32010. Same reaction from my friends as well.

[EB32010]

@Spec, first of all I appreciate everything you do for this forum. Your insights and data collection are invaluable for all of us.

I was looking at the PERM data you have posted. Especially for May, June and July of 2010. The PERM numbers for May, June and July are 1503, 1867 and 1598 respectively. So total number of PERM for these months are 4968. I understand that there might be duplicates on this and at the same time this doesn't include dependents.

So my question is, is it safe to assume that there are around 5000 people waiting for AOS for these three months? Or am I way off? I know you can't say for sure but can you predict at least ballpark number?

Appreciate everything you do for the forum.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Gurus

Need your opinions.

1. My current employer initially applied in EB3 with April 2010 PD.
2. I did my Masters and was promoted.
3. Upgraded to EB2.

Please provide me your inputs

Immediately use your EB3 PERM(I am assuming you have 2 PERMs) to apply for AOS the next time you are current.

[AceMan]

Why do you think it will be Jan 2020 (earliest you said) before it can hit May 2010? My expectation is it will reach March/April 2010 by Sept 2019.

If you want to look optimistically July 2019 bulletin might have dates beyond May 2010 PD. Once the dates go past May 2010, the true EB2 filers without EAD (the risk takers) and the dates current in EB3, will start downgrading and it takes about 6 months, or by January 2020, these downgrades will start impacting the Eb3 forward movement.


If March/April 2010 PD's happens on September 19 as per your expectation, the above scenario of downgrade impact will start to happen in March/April 2020

[srimurthy]

Cannot blame Desis or anyone. Chinese did it when they had that option. I think it is basic human behavior. You always try to find the shortest and easiest path.

With the economy and the administration, the risk are high to show continuity in employment till you get GC hence I feel everyone looks for stability and seek the opportunities or options that provide the best path.

[gcvijay]

If you want to look optimistically July 2019 bulletin might have dates beyond May 2010 PD. Once the dates go past May 2010, the true EB2 filers without EAD (the risk takers) and the dates current in EB3, will start downgrading and it takes about 6 months, or by January 2020, these downgrades will start impacting the Eb3 forward movement.


If March/April 2010 PD's happens on September 19 as per your expectation, the above scenario of downgrade impact will start to happen in March/April 2020

Are you saying that EB3 INDIA FAD dates will hold till April 2010 for this entire FY and at least for three months after this FY? Its going to be tough at what point do you think CO will realize there is a surge of downgrades and its time to retrogress EB3 and what date at that point will he retrogress EB3 INDIA to?

[AceMan]

Are you saying that EB3 INDIA FAD dates will hold till April 2010 for this entire FY and at least for three months after this FY? Its going to be tough at what point do you think CO will realize there is a surge of downgrades and its time to retrogress EB3 and what date at that point will he retrogress EB3 INDIA to?

CO said that USCIS have enough demand for this FY and the Filing dates are not accepted from Feb 19. There will be no surge in downgrades for FY 19.

[dev2010]

Hi,
My PD is Oct-2010 EB2 from previous employer. Currently my existing employer has started perm and it's in initial stages (PWD). The perm job desc qualifies for EB2. I am hoping that by the time my perm gets approved (hopefully not audited), I will have a clear idea of EB3 movement beyond May-2010. In that case I can make a decision to file my I-140 in EB3.

Does anyone think there can be a pushback from attorneys in this case for filing I-140 in EB3 although perm being EB2? This is not the downgrade as they don't have to amend I-140 or start a new perm.

Appreciate any feedback.
Thanks,
Dev

[excalibur123]

Are you saying that EB3 INDIA FAD dates will hold till April 2010 for this entire FY and at least for three months after this FY? Its going to be tough at what point do you think CO will realize there is a surge of downgrades and its time to retrogress EB3 and what date at that point will he retrogress EB3 INDIA to?

He doesnt like retrogression generally, so expect a slower and cautious movement in EB3 when he sees downgrades coming. So he has demand till Apr 2010 - but due to downgrades it will end up at somewhere 3-4 months earlier at the end of FY. Different story if there are EB2 spillovers which may discourage surge of downgrades.

[gcvijay]

He doesnt like retrogression generally, so expect a slower and cautious movement in EB3 when he sees downgrades coming. So he has demand till Apr 2010 - but due to downgrades it will end up at somewhere 3-4 months earlier at the end of FY. Different story if there are EB2 spillovers which may discourage surge of downgrades.

The next inventory numbers that they may or may not publish will define how Eb3 will move going forward. That will have monthly breakdown of how many ppl downgraded.

[AceMan]

The next inventory numbers that they may or may not publish will define how Eb3 will move going forward. That will have monthly breakdown of how many ppl downgraded.

Inventory numbers without field office information is basically useless for every category except EB2. Even for EB2 we can just subtract the standard 2804 from the July inventory till July bulletin. If Eb2 is getting any SO, the dates will move forward then.

[EB32010]

@Spec, first of all I appreciate everything you do for this forum. Your insights and data collection are invaluable for all of us.

I was looking at the PERM data you have posted. Especially for May, June and July of 2010. The PERM numbers for May, June and July are 1503, 1867 and 1598 respectively. So total number of PERM for these months are 4968. I understand that there might be duplicates on this and at the same time this doesn't include dependents.

So my question is, is it safe to assume that there are around 5000 people waiting for AOS for these three months? Or am I way off? I know you can't say for sure but can you predict at least ballpark number?

Appreciate everything you do for the forum.

Anyone else have any insights to this? Aceman/YT?

[AceMan]

Anyone else have any insights to this? Aceman/YT?

Dates are far out to make any thing useful out of this 9 year old data. Many from that list would have abandoned it as well.

[EB22010Dec]

Dates are far out to make any thing useful out of this 9 year old data. Many from that list would have abandoned it as well.


I think this is a very aggressive assumption.

I don't know ONE person that has abandoned their GC.

I think the 10-year wait is a norm now and every one is prepared for it, buying houses and moving on with life and filing an app every 3 years.

[excalibur123]

I think this is a very aggressive assumption.

I don't know ONE person that has abandoned their GC.

I think the 10-year wait is a norm now and every one is prepared for it, buying houses and moving on with life and filing an app every 3 years.

In fact it is other way round, more applications would have to be added. The PI for EB2 2009-10 was known from 2012 - I can imagine a number of unmarried applicants (esp US degree holders) who began process in 2009-10 and got current in 2012. So they would have dependent spouses to add now which is not reflected in PI.

The known PI for EB2 can easily be increased to additional 500 from just that.

[AceMan]

I think this is a very aggressive assumption.

I don't know ONE person that has abandoned their GC.

I think the 10-year wait is a norm now and every one is prepared for it, buying houses and moving on with life and filing an app every 3 years.

Last year USCIS gave us a list till April 2018 showing approved 140 primaries from India. We had about 216 K EB2's and 54 K Eb3's.
We can get how many approved perms - India from 2008 through to December 2017 is around 415K from Specs data.

What this points is on an average about 65-70 % of approved labor is successfully converted to 140.
And it is from that list of approved 140's, people abandon the petition, join a new company, spouse files separately, utilize an earlier petition scenarios will apply.

[2011Feb]

Here is the number of perm approved by year from 2009 to 2016 per OFLC (~270K). I'm not including 2017 because their 140 may not be approved by April 2018 considering 1 year perm approval and normal 140 processing.

2009 11387
2010 28930
2011 31273
2012 30278
2013 20930
2014 35092
2015 45776
2016 65095

This count is approximately matching the USCIS approved 140 primaries (~270K).
Is that fair assumption these many people are waiting in GC?
I know it's only primaries (with out dependents) also it may have duplicates too. Assuming duplicates amount is equal to dependents count.

Again, I'm not good at calculating GC backlog. Experts can correct me if I'm wrong

[2011Feb]

Here is the number of perm approved by year from 2009 to 2016 per OFLC (~270K). I'm not including 2017 because their 140 may not be approved by April 2018 considering 1 year perm approval and normal 140 processing.

2009 11387
2010 28930
2011 31273
2012 30278
2013 20930
2014 35092
2015 45776
2016 65095

This count is approximately matching the USCIS approved 140 primaries (~270K).
Is that fair assumption these many people are waiting in GC?
I know it's only primaries (with out dependents) also it may have duplicates too. Assuming duplicates amount is equal to dependents count.

Again, I'm not good at calculating GC backlog. Experts can correct me if I'm wrong

[alyoshv]

Hi AceMan,

You have the most accurate prediction till date. If you can please tell this

My PD is EB3 2010 October when do you think dates become current that I can apply for EAD not for GC just to get EAD alone ?

really helpful with your response.

Thank you

[toadie]

Last year USCIS gave us a list till April 2018 showing approved 140 primaries from India. We had about 216 K EB2's and 54 K Eb3's.
We can get how many approved perms - India from 2008 through to December 2017 is around 415K from Specs data.

What this points is on an average about 65-70 % of approved labor is successfully converted to 140.
And it is from that list of approved 140's, people abandon the petition, join a new company, spouse files separately, utilize an earlier petition scenarios will apply.

Also, lot of people seemed to have moved to Canada and to Australia. I am not sure they are coming back or their employer still would honor their role.

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

Nothing new here but looks like delays from USCIS is getting noticed by everyone one and being covered in news more than ever.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/house-oversight-committee-chairman-wants-answers-legal-immigration-backlog-n968301

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2019/01/31/uscis-immigration-delays-grow-longer-and-longer/#4666f8782254

Thanks

[drop2ocean]

My company lawyer says I-140 amendment (EB3 downgrade) is not eligible for PP. I heard few stories of successful acceptance of PP with the receipt. Can anyone point me to any text/links/document that says I-140 PP is allowed with the receipt please ?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

My company lawyer says I-140 amendment (EB3 downgrade) is not eligible for PP. I heard few stories of successful acceptance of PP with the receipt. Can anyone point me to any text/links/document that says I-140 PP is allowed with the receipt please ?

If you "heard few stories of successful acceptance of PP", you might as well get to the source of those stories bro. On this forum, All I have read is that EB3 Downgrade with PP is not possible. However, if you already have a EB3 Perm, then I don't see why you cannot do PP.

[Merlin2009]

If you "heard few stories of successful acceptance of PP", you might as well get to the source of those stories bro. On this forum, All I have read is that EB3 Downgrade with PP is not possible. However, if you already have a EB3 Perm, then I don't see why you cannot do PP.

I was able to downgrade to EB3 using EB2 PERM, filed I-140 and got it approved in premium processing. Both my EB2 and EB3 I-140s are filed in NSC. My attorney suggested that USCIS may or may not accept PP. But since, the only risk is losing attorney fee, I asked him to upgrade my I-140 to PP. Fortunately, it was accepted and approved. I think if your previous I-140 is filed at the same service center, there is a good chance that they may already have the original PERM on file.

[tendlya]

Does demand data include consular processing applications as well? What are the chances of demand increasing since last July inventory report for the months of April/May 2009? Sorry if it is basic question.

[Spectator]

Does demand data include consular processing applications as well? What are the chances of demand increasing since last July inventory report for the months of April/May 2009? Sorry if it is basic question.
I presume by "demand data" you mean the USCIS Inventory.

The USCIS Inventory only provides information on I-485 applications (and increasingly few of the total number these days).

Consular Processing is administered by DOS, so the USCIS report does not include them. DOS does report their numbers annually, but they are not shown at PD level. https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2018.pdf

[tendlya]

Thanks Spec. Looks like DOS also reports Completed CP count per country per year as well. I don't see any huge number getting used by EB2 India CP for 2018. Am I reading it right?

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport%20-%20TableVI-PartII.pdf

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports.html

[tendlya]

Do we know what percentage of annual 2800 country limit is used towards Consular Processing applications for India?

[drop2ocean]

I was able to downgrade to EB3 using EB2 PERM, filed I-140 and got it approved in premium processing. Both my EB2 and EB3 I-140s are filed in NSC. My attorney suggested that USCIS may or may not accept PP. But since, the only risk is losing attorney fee, I asked him to upgrade my I-140 to PP. Fortunately, it was accepted and approved. I think if your previous I-140 is filed at the same service center, there is a good chance that they may already have the original PERM on file.

Thanks Merlin, appreciate your response

[Spectator]

Do we know what percentage of annual 2800 country limit is used towards Consular Processing applications for India?

These are the % of CP visas of total approvals received for India (not necessarily 2,800) over recent years.

% CP ---- FY2018 --- FY2017 --- FY2016 --- FY2015 --- FY2014
EB1 ------- 1.7% ----- 0.9% ----- 1.3% ----- 1.4% ----- 0.7%
EB2 ------- 1.8% ----- 2.5% ----- 2.1% ----- 1.4% ----- 0.7%
EB3 ------ 12.2% ----- 3.1% ----- 3.4% ----- 2.2% ----- 6.7%
EB4 ------ 24.6% ---- 30.8% ---- 28.8% ---- 26.1% ---- 25.5%
EB5 ------ 67.4% ---- 63.8% ---- 60.4% ---- 64.0% ---- 57.3%

The increase in EB3 for FY2018 may reflect the FAD passing July 2007 for the first time, or it could just be that the FAD moved so far for EB3-I during the course of FY2018.

[tendlya]

Thanks Spec. Effect of Consular Processing on EB2I seems negligible.
Can last July pending inventory report be considered reliable? I am assuming this report would have considered information as of end of July 2018. But the approvals for EB2I were coming in until late August 2018. What percentage of inventory from Dec-2008 til March 2009 would have been cleared up in last fiscal year? So we are talking about 161 + 395 + 370 + 527.
Any guess?

1446

[iatiam]

Thanks Spec. Effect of Consular Processing on EB2I seems negligible.
Can last July pending inventory report be considered reliable? I am assuming this report would have considered information as of end of July 2018. But the approvals for EB2I were coming in until late August 2018. What percentage of inventory from Dec-2008 til March 2009 would have been cleared up in last fiscal year? So we are talking about 161 + 395 + 370 + 527.
Any guess?

1446

There are people in April 2009 who are getting greened. You can assume that inventory upto April first week has been mostly cleared. Like YT mentioned in his post some time ago, the new FD and FAD system is designed to reduce the chances of abrupt movements - advances and retrogression. For EB2I, it's going to be a slow and painful movement for the next three months, at least and then hopefully SO will kick in.

Iatiam

[tendlya]

There are people in April 2009 who are getting greened. You can assume that inventory upto April first week has been mostly cleared. Like YT mentioned in his post some time ago, the new FD and FAD system is designed to reduce the chances of abrupt movements - advances and retrogression. For EB2I, it's going to be a slow and painful movement for the next three months, at least and then hopefully SO will kick in.

Iatiam

Do you think bulk of this inventory up to April was cleared in current fiscal year or before Oct 2018? Trying to determine how far the dates can reach by end of current fiscal year even if we don't get any SO.

[iatiam]

Do you think bulk of this inventory up to April was cleared in current fiscal year or before Oct 2018? Trying to determine how far the dates can reach by end of current fiscal year even if we don't get any SO.

I think there are several things going on. Texas service center is exceptionally slow and may or may not have caught-up with the FAD. So the inventory may not have fully cleared for the FAD. Also, there will certainly be SO this year. Last month CO said that EB2ROW will remain current and if so, it will yield SO. While I don't wish it, if the interview requirements also might be causing some SO from EB3I to EB2I. Also, the two bumps in May and June 2009 (1400 cases each) are worth keeping an eye on. If the dates move past these, the progression might be smoother. At some point reverse porting will also kick in. Whether or not that will happen this FY or next is a big unknown and will have a significant impact on the forward movement.

The date movement predictions vary and with limited visibility and no data, veterans like Spec do not even try it. I wish and hope that the dates until October 2009 gets cleared.

Iatiam

[redsox2009]

I expedited my I-765 application with option of severe Financial Loss. Today I received an email from USCIS asking for documentation. I'm planning to submit Paystubs, Client Letter and Employment Letter. Let me know if I need to submit any other documents along with these.



Upon receipt of your request for expeditious handling, your case was reviewed and a determination was made that we need additional information to make a decision regarding your request. Please scan and e-mail documents supporting your expedite request to tscsrmtdoc@uscis.dhs.gov.

NOTE: Please include the receipt number and ATTN: XM1454 in the first position of the subject line of your e-mail.

The information must be received within 48 hours of the date of this notice. A decision in regards to expediting your request cannot be made until this documentation is received.

[iatiam]

I expedited my I-765 application with option of severe Financial Loss. Today I received an email from USCIS asking for documentation. I'm planning to submit Paystubs, Client Letter and Employment Letter. Let me know if I need to submit any other documents along with these.



Upon receipt of your request for expeditious handling, your case was reviewed and a determination was made that we need additional information to make a decision regarding your request. Please scan and e-mail documents supporting your expedite request to tscsrmtdoc@uscis.dhs.gov.

NOTE: Please include the receipt number and ATTN: XM1454 in the first position of the subject line of your e-mail.

The information must be received within 48 hours of the date of this notice. A decision in regards to expediting your request cannot be made until this documentation is received.

Add your mortgage statement as well if you own a house. If not, add the rental statement

[shekhar_kuruk]

I expedited my I-765 application with option of severe Financial Loss. Today I received an email from USCIS asking for documentation. I'm planning to submit Paystubs, Client Letter and Employment Letter. Let me know if I need to submit any other documents along with these.



Upon receipt of your request for expeditious handling, your case was reviewed and a determination was made that we need additional information to make a decision regarding your request. Please scan and e-mail documents supporting your expedite request to tscsrmtdoc@uscis.dhs.gov.

NOTE: Please include the receipt number and ATTN: XM1454 in the first position of the subject line of your e-mail.

The information must be received within 48 hours of the date of this notice. A decision in regards to expediting your request cannot be made until this documentation is received.

With the receipt, you are automatically getting 180 days extension, is that going to expire as well?

[Ind2009]

There are people in April 2009 who are getting greened. You can assume that inventory upto April first week has been mostly cleared. Like YT mentioned in his post some time ago, the new FD and FAD system is designed to reduce the chances of abrupt movements - advances and retrogression. For EB2I, it's going to be a slow and painful movement for the next three months, at least and then hopefully SO will kick in.

Iatiam

Are you referring to EB2 folks from April 2009 ?

[iatiam]

Are you referring to EB2 folks from April 2009 ?

Yes. Again, I am basing it in what I see in trackit

[excalibur123]

With the receipt, you are automatically getting 180 days extension, is that going to expire as well?

What is the 180 day rule? I thought it is only when you have filed your I-140?

I work for an another employer - different from one who filed GC for me long back. So if file I-765 through my GC employer, I cannot change my current employer for 180 days? That doesn't make sense to me as my current employer/job has no relation to my future job under GC.

[skpanda]

No Visa bulletin? any idea what's going on? Are they trying to see the demand? Surprising since USCIS did not honor the filing dates... so dont make any sense waiting..

[Raj0687]

FY19 - Q1 perm numbers are released, looks like demand is up by 3% when compared to last year, not sure how we get more SO this year than last year.

[Nov2010]

Just curious to know when was the last time bulletin was released towards the end of second week(middle) of the month.
I tried to go back and check mostly I've seen max of 12th.

[tenyearsgone]

What is the 180 day rule? I thought it is only when you have filed your I-140?

I work for an another employer - different from one who filed GC for me long back. So if file I-765 through my GC employer, I cannot change my current employer for 180 days? That doesn't make sense to me as my current employer/job has no relation to my future job under GC.

The 180-day rule referred to here is for AOS-based EAD extensions. If the extension has been filed for before the current EAD expires, then the applicant can continue to use the EAD for upto 180 days after it's expiration. It does not have any relation to who you work for or to the I-140.

[EB2/eb3]

Just curious to know when was the last time bulletin was released towards the end of second week(middle) of the month.
I tried to go back and check mostly I've seen max of 12th.
Yes, never seen it this late!

[rocketfast]

Anytime, you criticize USCIS (like the aila report), they will show how much more worse they could do, if they want :)

[EB32010]

Originally I thought downgrading is easier than upgrading but I changed my mind now, its tougher than upgrading to EB2.
My prediction is that only 25% of total EB2 applicants will be successful in downgrading to EB3, remaining will end up waiting in EB2I queue for their GC.
So EB3I will always be ahead of the EB2I in next 5 to 10 years.

YT, I am revisiting this prediction of yours. Do you think it will still be just 25% only on the downgrades? If you look at trackitt, there are many many downgrades happening. I am expecting downgrading to spike up exponentially once it pass May 2010.

[excalibur123]

Anytime, you criticize USCIS (like the aila report), they will show how much more worse they could do, if they want :)

You guys are reading too much into it. The bulletin has nearly always come out on the first Thursday or Friday after 10th of the month.

[Nov2010]

That is not the case always Ex: Nov2018 bulletin was released on October 5, 2018 which is first Friday.
I went back and check for several years mostly it was released on or before 12th.

[ferric]

Someone on trackitt said they’re waiting for the spending bill to get signed so they can correctly decide EB4/5 dates

[excalibur123]

That is not the case always Ex: Nov2018 bulletin was released on October 5, 2018 which is first Friday.
I went back and check for several years mostly it was released on or before 12th.

Where did you see this?

I checked Oct 2018 visa bulletin - it is dated for Sep 10, but if you check trackitt forums it was made public on Sep 12. Similarly Dec 2018 bulletin is dated Nov 8, but was made public Nov 13.

And Nov 2018 bulletin was made public on Oct 11.

[excalibur123]

Someone on trackitt said they’re waiting for the spending bill to get signed so they can correctly decide EB4/5 dates

You will have the VB out tomorrow morning before 9 AM EDT.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

YT, I am revisiting this prediction of yours. Do you think it will still be just 25% only on the downgrades? If you look at trackitt, there are many many downgrades happening. I am expecting downgrading to spike up exponentially once it pass May 2010.

I agree. I am expecting that it will be a 2 yr jamba lakidi pamba, before EB2 goes ahead again(given that no immigration bill will be passed anymore)

[Maxray]

March VB out:

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Bulletins/visabulletin_march2019.pdf

[saagar_is_cool]

March VB out:

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Bulletins/visabulletin_march2019.pdf

Very disappointing for EB2I, moved only by 3 days to April 9 2009, it is like torturing, ours is April 17 2009 and the last few months have been really annoying. Can anyone in this forum - Spec, YT - provide any insight, how many more painful months to wait before my date becomes current.

[EB32010]

Very disappointing for EB2I, moved only by 3 days to April 9 2009, it is like torturing, ours is April 17 2009 and the last few months have been really annoying. Can anyone in this forum - Spec, YT - provide any insight, how many more painful months to wait before my date becomes current.

Yes. It’s very painful for EB2.

Also I am very disappointed with EB3 movement too. I expected little more.

[mcmilers]

Very disappointing for EB2I, moved only by 3 days to April 9 2009, it is like torturing, ours is April 17 2009 and the last few months have been really annoying. Can anyone in this forum - Spec, YT - provide any insight, how many more painful months to wait before my date becomes current.

I am in no way a prediction guru but at this point any kind prediction will be more like speculation rather that a calculated guess.

[asiingh]

Did'nt some folks say that EB3 FAD will move ahead 3 months every VB ? This time it moved out only by 1 month.

[NJMavarick]

This VB is going to change a lot of discussions we had especially around the 3 months movement in EB3. It seems we may end up with only 3 months movement by May VB. This is a total bummer!

[ferric]

1 month for EB3 is surprising, but last year EB3 moved 13 months between March and April so maybe next month will be better.

[iatiam]

1 month for EB3 is surprising, but last year EB3 moved 13 months between March and April so maybe next month will be better.

There might be better movement next month; given its the new quarter. Also, I think everyone should be a little more patient. EB2I moved five months in last one year.

[ferric]

There might be better movement next month; given its the new quarter. Also, I think everyone should be a little more patient. EB2I moved five months in last one year.

Pretty sure EB2/3I folks are the epitome of patience ;-) I think the surprising part was that the bulletin projected movement up to 3 months yet moved only one month, why not project 1 month in that case or, offer up a reason for the difference?

Are they just being cautious or have they received more 485s than they were expecting?

[iatiam]

Pretty sure EB2/3I folks are the epitome of patience ;-) I think the surprising part was that the bulletin projected movement up to 3 months yet moved only one month, why not project 1 month in that case or, offer up a reason for the difference?

Are they just being cautious or have they received more 485s than they were expecting?

Yes we are. And honest truth is that we are better off than most Americans and other demographics as well. A green card will give lots of peace but that's pretty much about it

[excalibur123]

Yes we are. And honest truth is that we are better off than most Americans and other demographics as well. A green card will give lots of peace but that's pretty much about it


Do you understand hindi/urdu - "dil ko khush rakhne ko, ghalib, yeh kahyal bhi achcha hai". :)

[blackbull]

Please dont take this the wrong way but ....

I am not sure you can say that. "We are better off than most americans" really? How ? Could you please educate us?

Is that how we wanna project overselves? with Empty words?

[EB2-03252009]

specs any plans for updating rackitt data for fy2019?

[sanjeevtrivedi]

This bulletin's EB3-I movement has shown, "DON"T DOWNGRADE NOW". Wait and watch, its seems the EB3-I might not pass Oct-2009. CO had said multiple times that EB2 and EB3 will be very close. So people who are rushing towards the downgrade might have to strongly reconsider else they will again kick themselves for downgrading.

[canada]

specs any plans for updating rackitt data for fy2019?


Not trying to be rude here but no amount of analysis is going to help us anymore as the DOS/ USCIS are hellbent on making this wait miserable. We are wasting our time in false hopes and uncertainty every month. They could at least make a statement that in a particular month in the last quarter- they will apply spillover or some rules to that effect.

[mcmilers]

My BIL Moved to Australia on 2017. He might have made a smart move :)

[kb2013]

In a cliffhanger, my EB3I-140 - I485 concurrent filing application reached USCIS on 1/30. Did anyone who filed late Jan get a receipt notice? I am still waiting for mine. Seems a long wait compared to earlier filings.

[suninphx]

My BIL Moved to Australia on 2017. He might have made a smart move :)

BIL's are always smart... proved again! :)

[h1bh1bh1b]

Any advice on what to do for EB2I PD of May 10, 2010? Just hang tight until FAD reaches that or do all the shenanigans of down porting when the EB3 Filing Date crosses that? No issues with the job as such and going on year 12 now so stability is not a concern. Another couple of years and my wife can apply in EB1A or B. Thanks!

Wait for EB3 FAD to reach and you can file I140 concurrently. After filing and service center is known you can move 140 to premium .
There are couple of users in October I 485 forum in track it have done it that way

[h1bh1bh1b]

Wait for EB3 FAD to reach and you can file I140 concurrently. After filing and service center is known you can move 140 to premium .
There are couple of users in October I 485 forum in track it have done it that way

Sorry I meant DF chart date

[newyorker123]

http://immigrationgirl.com/dhs-moves-forward-with-its-plans-to-eliminate-the-ead-for-h-4-spouses/

Marked economically significant : In my opinion, it can be potentially gone in 4-6 months. Of course there will be lawsuits etc.

In other news, H4 EAD will require fingerprinting from March 11th onwards, adding delays again.

Well, we knew anyway that the Admin is hostile.

[excalibur123]

As predicted -
https://immfinews.com/a-long-way-for-eb2-eb3-india-final-action-dates-to-move-beyond-2009/

[LASHAB]

In absence of clear picture of 485 inventory it seems that EB2I will clear Aug-Sept 2009 in this FY with moderate spillover. EB3 FAD will move in tandem to discourage downgrade while trying to utilize as many unused ROW visas in that category.

[excalibur123]

In absence of clear picture of 485 inventory it seems that EB2I will clear Aug-Sept 2009 in this FY with moderate spillover. EB3 FAD will move in tandem to discourage downgrade while trying to utilize as many unused ROW visas in that category.

Not sure what you mean by moving in tandem to prevent downporting. It is not an objective of the system to discourage anything. People do things (upgrade or downgrade) based on their needs, and those change the numbers and thus the dates.

[altek001]

Can anyone opine on why USCIS has not published the pending inventory since July 2018?

In what ways, do they get to benefit (specifically in mis-allocating immigrant visas) by withholding the current pending inventory?

[qesehmk]

Can anyone opine on why USCIS has not published the pending inventory since July 2018?

In what ways, do they get to benefit (specifically in mis-allocating immigrant visas) by withholding the current pending inventory?

Could be by design, carelessness or inefficiency. My bet is on #1. State dept doesn't want you to know clear picture of when somebody may be greened. Perhaps they think people can conspire against the US if they know when they may be greened. That may sound farfetched ... but it may not be.

[babslak]

Why USCIS has not published the pending inventory ?
This may be the answer...
https://immfinews.com/uscis-eb-485-inventory-data-long-overdue/

[babslak]

I believe there are very less chances for EB2-India to clear August/sep 2009. There are atleast 1000-1500 applicants per each month in 2009. Right now we are in Apr 2009...based on this go ahead and calculate.

[Raj0687]

Could be by design, carelessness or inefficiency. My bet is on #1. State dept doesn't want you to know clear picture of when somebody may be greened. Perhaps they think people can conspire against the US if they know when they may be greened. That may sound farfetched ... but it may not be.

I have a feeling that the uscis is not utilizing all of the visa numbers from past few years (at least from 2015), it is intentionally wasting visas, because of it is being preached, driven by the strong anti-immigrant non profit groups.

At this time, the only information they are sharing is just the annual per country consumption report, I think they can cook up this report, not sure how to prove this.

[rohanvus]

I have a feeling that the uscis is not utilizing all of the visa numbers from past few years (at least from 2015), it is intentionally wasting visas, because of it is being preached, driven by the strong anti-immigrant non profit groups.

At this time, the only information they are sharing is just the annual per country consumption report, I think they can cook up this report, not sure how to prove this.

You maybe right . This goes back to the same thing that Q has been telling which is to take this to court or channelize energies in suing instead of solely doing advocacy . Maybe advocay works - but havent we tried that already many times with 100s of co-sponsors and getting beaten down at the end ? There is saying "To not make a mistake is a mistake , but to keep keep doing the same mistake everytme and expecting different result is foolishness"

[newyorker123]

You maybe right . This goes back to the same thing that Q has been telling which is to take this to court or channelize energies in suing instead of solely doing advocacy . Maybe advocay works - but havent we tried that already many times with 100s of co-sponsors and getting beaten down at the end ? There is saying "To not make a mistake is a mistake , but to keep keep doing the same mistake everytme and expecting different result is foolishness"

Needs someone(or a group) with persistence, and deep pockets to pursue this. Some EB5 China investors recently sued for adding dependents as part of EB5, and it was denied

[altek001]

I have a feeling that the uscis is not utilizing all of the visa numbers from past few years (at least from 2015), it is intentionally wasting visas, because of it is being preached, driven by the strong anti-immigrant non profit groups.

At this time, the only information they are sharing is just the annual per country consumption report, I think they can cook up this report, not sure how to prove this.

I agree on wastage/ reallocation of visa numbers, which is why EB-India is stuck. This correlates to increasing costs in keeping up with filing and visa fees.

Not releasing Pending inventory for 8 months is very fishy. AILA not questioning USCIS on this, is quite frustating. It appears there are many stakeholders who have a benefit in withholding this information.

Even since Dates of Filiing were introduced in 2015, the Visa bulletin movement of dates have been miserable.

[altek001]

I agree on wastage/ reallocation of visa numbers, which is why EB-India is stuck. This correlates to increasing costs in keeping up with filing and visa fees.

Not releasing Pending inventory for 8 months is very fishy. AILA not questioning USCIS on this, is quite frustating. It appears there are many stakeholders who have a benefit in withholding this information.

Even since Dates of Filiing were introduced in 2015, the Visa bulletin movement of dates have been miserable.

14471448

Pending inventory over the years

[AceMan]

14471448

Pending inventory over the years


Pending inventory beyond Jan 18 does not include field office information for Eb1 and 3

[EB2/eb3]

https://immfinews.com/uscis-eb-485-inventory-data-long-overdue

As per this article, USCIS may not release the inventory ever!

[LASHAB]

I believe there are very less chances for EB2-India to clear August/sep 2009. There are atleast 1000-1500 applicants per each month in 2009. Right now we are in Apr 2009...based on this go ahead and calculate.

Since the pending inventory data is not available since Jul 18, its tough to make any assessment, even with unreliable nos in the pending inventory report. My guess is based on a SO of 4-5k and clearing up of Jan-March 09 in last FY. With this assumption the dates can clear Aug 09. But again these are all assumptions in absence of any concrete and reliable data.

[vyruss]

When will spillover, if available, be applied? The third or the fourth quarter?

[altek001]

https://immfinews.com/uscis-eb-485-inventory-data-long-overdue

As per this article, USCIS may not release the inventory ever!

USCIS ultimately had to resort to this rule, as lot of folks in EB India (including EB1) have gamed the system to apply in the category where Green Card is obtained in the least time. Many folks petitioned for in EB2/EB3, think of getting EB1C by working overseas for sometime in Indian IT firms. Though there is nothing wrong with doing this, this hurts others who wait patiently in their queue category. This has compounded to severe visa retrogression in a few categories.

Atleast we should appreciate someone in USCIS/DOS has noticed and making regulatory changes to alleviate this problem. Who knows they made end up NOT counting dependents in EB visa allocation when enough comments are received.

[EB22010Dec]

USCIS ultimately had to resort to this rule, as lot of folks in EB India (including EB1) have gamed the system to apply in the category where Green Card is obtained in the least time. Many folks petitioned for in EB2/EB3, think of getting EB1C by working overseas for sometime in Indian IT firms. Though there is nothing wrong with doing this, this hurts others who wait patiently in their queue category. This has compounded to severe visa retrogression in a few categories.

Atleast we should appreciate someone in USCIS/DOS has noticed and making regulatory changes to alleviate this problem. Who knows they made end up NOT counting dependents in EB visa allocation when enough comments are received.


stockholm syndrome :)

[vsivarama]

https://immfinews.com/uscis-eb-485-inventory-data-long-overdue

As per this article, USCIS may not release the inventory ever!

This sounds like bad news for EB2-I. EB2-I never moved because of the upgrades from EB3-I. Now once EB3-I has caught up and moved ahead looks like (the rule if enacted) downgrades will be prevented. Am I correct in understanding the article? Just when I thought it cannot get any worse....

[redsox2009]

2019 YOD DOS Data total.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
ROW
Total


FB
4072
4420
8634
4539
44430
66095


EB
1343
0882
0143
1754
5260
9382


Total
5415
5302
8777
6293
49690
75477

[redsox2009]

Here is the 2019 January DOS data.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
104
15
00
00
13
01
88
221


EB2
09
07
05
10
152
02
136
321



EB3
011
226
031
404
050
016
688
1426


EB4
03
08
02
04
01
08
141
167


EB5
082
022
000
002
000
012
054
172


Total
209
278
038
420
216
039
1107
2307

[texas_]

i dont know how to interpret this table

Can someone shed on light ?

[swordfish380]

2019 YOD DOS Data total.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
ROW
Total


FB
4072
4420
8634
4539
44430
66095


EB
1343
0882
0143
1754
5260
9382


Total
5415
5302
8777
6293
49690
75477



Pardon my ignorance, based on this report DOS has ißued 800 GCs to EB2i? If this is correct then EB2i has 2000 GCs to receive ?

[bikenlalan]

Pardon my ignorance, based on this report DOS has ißued 800 GCs to EB2i? If this is correct then EB2i has 2000 GCs to receive ?

This is the total EB visas issued to India by DOS in all categories in the current FY.

[swordfish380]

This is the total EB visas issued to India by DOS in all categories in the current FY.

it is mearly nothing . So there should be significant movement in all EB india categories? Does this number include consular processing Visas as well?

[Raj0687]

check this out, https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201810&RIN=1615-AC22 so they are going to publish quality demand data going forward.

I think removing the concurrent filing brings the frivolous filings down across the board, which is a good sign.

[EB32010]

check this out, https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201810&RIN=1615-AC22 so they are going to publish quality demand data going forward.

I think removing the concurrent filing brings the frivolous filings down across the board, which is a good sign.
Not sure the chances of this rule happening but if it happens, this is bad news for downgraders as they can’t do concurrent filing

[altek001]

Newly Revealed Statistics Show USCIS Quietly Nibbling Away at the H-1B Program

https://cis.org/North/Newly-Revealed-Statistics-Show-USCIS-Quietly-Nibbling-Away-H1B-Program

[mcmilers]

here is an update from CO on Murthy

https://www.murthy.com/2019/03/04/march-2019-visa-bulletin-check-in-eb1-expected-to-remain-mostly-stagnant/

Not very encouraging.

[iatiam]

here is an update from CO on Murthy

https://www.murthy.com/2019/03/04/march-2019-visa-bulletin-check-in-eb1-expected-to-remain-mostly-stagnant/

Not very encouraging.

Looks like EB1 will be retrogressed forever with no chances of getting current in the near future.

Does CO believe that EB3I also needs to be retrogressed behind EB2I due to downporting. I am guessing it

[waitingsoldier]

This does not look good where many of us were hoping to see EB3I final action dates reach the filing dates of April 2010 by the end of this fiscal year. CO talked about "up to 3 month movement in every bulletin until May" not so long ago, wonder what changed :confused:.

[jimmys]

This does not look good where many of us were hoping to see EB3I final action dates reach the filing dates of April 2010 by the end of this fiscal year. CO talked about "up to 3 month movement in every bulletin until May" not so long ago, wonder what changed :confused:.

EB-3 I PDs in early part of 2009 are getting interview scheduled as of March, 2019. There are 6 more bulletins remain in this FY. I think EB-3 India Final Action dates may easily reach at least Oct 1,2009 by end of this FY. It may be a stretch to reach April 2010 for EB-3 but most of the 2009 will be done for EB-3 I by this FY. Fears of down porting for the first half of 2009 is overestimated.

[waitingsoldier]

EB-3 I PDs in early part of 2009 are getting interview scheduled as of March, 2019. There are 6 more bulletins remain in this FY. I think EB-3 India Final Action dates may easily reach at least Oct 1,2009 by end of this FY. It may be a stretch to reach April 2010 for EB-3 but most of the 2009 will be done for EB-3 I by this FY. Fears of down porting for the first half of 2009 is overestimated.

Thank you @jimmys! My priority date is December 2009, hoping for a miracle this calendar year :)

[NJMavarick]

I do receive client alerts from another immigration law firm and the estimate mentioned for EB3I is 0-3 months, which is the same as it was in the Feb Bulletin. I think the coming bulletin might provide more insight. At this point we can all only provide guesstimates.

[iatiam]

EB-3 I PDs in early part of 2009 are getting interview scheduled as of March, 2019. There are 6 more bulletins remain in this FY. I think EB-3 India Final Action dates may easily reach at least Oct 1,2009 by end of this FY. It may be a stretch to reach April 2010 for EB-3 but most of the 2009 will be done for EB-3 I by this FY. Fears of down porting for the first half of 2009 is overestimated.

It may end up too little, too late for EB3I. While I don't wish it, this FY EB3****isas might be wasted. I don't think CO or USCIS has any insight in to actual demand in field offices. Correct me if I am wrong - I think on average it takes 8-months to schedule an interview in a field office.

Iatiam

[arc1202]

All,
I would like to express my sincere Thanks to everyone in this forum, who has provided tremendous support throughout the journey. We received GC on Feb28,2019. Here is the detail.

PD: 03/25, NSC
I-485 File : Sep,2014(Missed in 2012)
Date became Current : Oct 1, 2018
SR : Raised 2 SR for myself (Nov18, and Dec 23) - Case approved on Jan 28, though not for spouse. Raised 2 SR for spouse(Jan 19, Feb4) and case approved on Feb19.
Both Card Received on - Feb28.

Once again Thanks a lot All and Good Luck !!!

[Moveon]

I have my EAD though the AOS that I filed in 2012 for a PD of Dec 2009 as an Individual Contrbutor (Senior MTS) . I am talking to a company for a "Senior engineering Manager" position . The lawyers seem to be OK saying that its fine to move into a managerial role as it is on the tech side and not Product Management/Marketing . Just wanted to know if others have done that .
thanks .

[jimmys]

It may end up too little, too late for EB3I. While I don't wish it, this FY EB3****isas might be wasted. I don't think CO or USCIS has any insight in to actual demand in field offices. Correct me if I am wrong - I think on average it takes 8-months to schedule an interview in a field office.

Iatiam

I don't know about 8-months delay to schedule an interview. Are you talking about people have to wait 8 months after their dates becoming current? But I saw a few cases interview scheduled which were filed in October,2018. I even saw a case in trackitt which got I-485 approved that filed in Aug,2018.

[anfu02]

All,
I would like to express my sincere Thanks to everyone in this forum, who has provided tremendous support throughout the journey. We received GC on Feb28,2019. Here is the detail.

PD: 03/25, NSC
I-485 File : Sep,2014(Missed in 2012)
Date became Current : Oct 1, 2018
SR : Raised 2 SR for myself (Nov18, and Dec 23) - Case approved on Jan 28, though not for spouse. Raised 2 SR for spouse(Jan 19, Feb4) and case approved on Feb19.
Both Card Received on - Feb28.

Once again Thanks a lot All and Good Luck !!!

Congrats on your green card.

[EB2-03252009]

confused situation!

my pd is 3/25/09 eb2-i. received rfe on 5/22/18 and rfer 6/7/18 with company A. I have accepted an offer in 11/18 with company B and working for them since then and didn't submit updated supp-j as I thought I would get GC by then.
1. do you guys think if it is a good idea to submit sup-j now?
2. will there be any rejection if i dont submit my new sup-j?
I have started talks with my current employer regarding sup-j.

[swordfish380]

confused situation!

my pd is 3/25/09 eb2-i. received rfe on 5/22/18 and rfer 6/7/18 with company A. I have accepted an offer in 11/18 with company B and working for them since then and didn't submit updated supp-j as I thought I would get GC by then.
1. do you guys think if it is a good idea to submit sup-j now?
2. will there be any rejection if i dont submit my new sup-j?
I have started talks with my current employer regarding sup-j.

If you get a rfe for sup j then submit it.

[EB2-03252009]

If you get a rfe for sup j then submit it.
Thanks for the reply, spoke to my company A attorney, she said if I intent to work for company A after getting GC for atleast 6 months then I am good else I need to apply for Sup-J.

[AceMan]

EB-3 I PDs in early part of 2009 are getting interview scheduled as of March, 2019. There are 6 more bulletins remain in this FY. I think EB-3 India Final Action dates may easily reach at least Oct 1,2009 by end of this FY. It may be a stretch to reach April 2010 for EB-3 but most of the 2009 will be done for EB-3 I by this FY. Fears of down porting for the first half of 2009 is overestimated.

The date movement last month was slow for EB3. There is little possibility like last April for a good Eb3 final date movement. Compared to 20 months back when Eb3 was stuck in March 2005 for a long time, any movement is good.

[srimurthy]

Apr bulletin is out:

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-april-2019.html

3 days movement for EB2I and 1 month for EB3I
Looks like more of an approach to stop downporting

[Raj0687]

Apr bulletin is out:

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-april-2019.html

3 days movement for EB2I and 1 month for EB3I
Looks like more of an approach to stop downporting

So... holding on EB2I date stops down porting?

[srimurthy]

So... holding on EB2I date stops down porting?
No, the EB3I dates not progressing much and staying close to the dates of EB2I means less down porting.
Say if the EB3I dates are moved to Apr'10, or later you see a lot more down porting just my thoughts.

[ferric]

Spillover not applied, right? Guessing it’ll be applied in the last quarter so July bulletin?

[bikenlalan]

Slowly moving EB2-I, they might be tempting the Apr-May-June 09 folks to jump the queue to EB-3 rather than advancing EB-3 I further ahead and letting folks with later PD to jump.