EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[kb2013]

This theory an outright bluff with no basis, only fear mongering. With 10 years delay, already it is easy for people in EB2 to fall prey for it. They don't want to torpedo their chances after waiting for long.

Thanks for the clarification. My attorney too did not hint at any such possibility. Wanted to make sure there was no such hidden rule. Have had pretty bad experiences with USCIS that one can leave no stone unturned.

[AceMan]

Thanks for the clarification. My attorney too did not hint at any such possibility. Wanted to make sure there was no such hidden rule. Have had pretty bad experiences with USCIS that one can leave no stone unturned.

Just watch out for clause where attorneys might say accept a lower pay grade. The company attorneys really work the best interests of companies not the candidate.

Thread carefully.

[Raj0687]

Thanks Spec for the data.
Only comment I would like to make is Philippines may not get 7,059 visas in FY19 as their backlogs got depleted and they are approaching to the current in EB3.
That will be a good opportunity for EB3India to get more than what they got in FY18.

Out of curiosity, How come Philippines (also south Korea) allowed to use more than their quota, when they are not the most backlogged countries. This has been happening for years.

[drop2ocean]

Hi, I have June 2010 PD in EB2. My lawyer is recommending to downgrade to EB3 first and then file I485 when the dates are current. Lawyer says concurrent filing puts I485 in jeopardy if the I140 amendment does not get approved. Any thoughts ?

Also, what is the current processing times for I140 amendment in regular processing ?

My first I140 was with Texas service center, considering i am with same employer/location, assuming the amendment will go to the same service center.

[bluelabel]

I see grand total in FY 18 is 363573 and EB is 139483 so family based only used 224090 out of possible 226000.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport-TableV-Part3.pdf

Is EB going to receive a spill over of 1910 from FB in FY 19? if so, EB2 and EB3 receives a total of 54% of 1910 ~1011. If India being the most backlogged country in both EB2 and EB3, receives all 1011 additional spill over, will it make any relevance for EB2I and EB3I movement in FY 19? or ~1011 is very irrelevant for prediction calculations?

[AceMan]

I see grand total in FY 18 is 363573 and EB is 139483 so family based only used 224090 out of possible 226000.

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2018AnnualReport/FY18AnnualReport-TableV-Part3.pdf

Is EB going to receive a spill over of 1910 from FB in FY 19? if so, EB2 and EB3 receives a total of 54% of 1910 ~1011. If India being the most backlogged country in both EB2 and EB3, receives all 1011 additional spill over, will it make any relevance for EB2I and EB3I movement in FY 19? or ~1011 is very irrelevant for prediction calculations?

September 2018 visa bulletin said- The fiscal year 2018 limit for Employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 140,292. It appears that we lost little over 800 visa's in EB category for FY18.

[kb2013]

Just watch out for clause where attorneys might say accept a lower pay grade. The company attorneys really work the best interests of companies not the candidate.

Thread carefully.

Sure. Thanks. Will do.

[bloddy1]

Hi Gurus - Question - I have an EB2 June PD I-140 with a prior employer and in the process of joining them back. However, with H1-B processing
taking considerable time, would I still be able to file I-485 if & when application date becomes current in EB3?

Can I have a pending H1-B application and still file I-485

Thanks

[drop2ocean]

Hi Gurus - Question - I have an EB2 June PD I-140 with a prior employer and in the process of joining them back. However, with H1-B processing
taking considerable time, would I still be able to file I-485 if & when it application date becomes current in EB3?

Can I have a pending H1-B application and still file I-485

Thanks
Yes, it is possible as long as your employer is willing to file.

[incredible]

Yes, it is possible as long as your employer is willing to file.

Just to let you know the reverse is not true though. If your dates are current, and are eligible to file I-485, H1B cannot be filed.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Before this administration made AOS interviews mandatory, how long would it take for an applicant to get GC after filing I-485 considering the PD was always current - let's say for someone in EB2ROW?

Now with interviews, delays are more than a year, which was the intention of this administration all along - to slow down immigration. With these huge delays, I am having a tough time trying to digest that we only lost some 800 GCs! If delays are so long, how did the GCs get allocated?

[iatiam]

Before this administration made AOS interviews mandatory, how long would it take for an applicant to get GC after filing I-485 considering the PD was always current - let's say for someone in EB2ROW?

Now with interviews, delays are more than a year, which was the intention of this administration all along - to slow down immigration. With these huge delays, I am having a tough time trying to digest that we only lost some 800 GCs! If delays are so long, how did the GCs get allocated?

Where is this 800 GCs lost you are talking about? There are plenty of people waiting in line who don't need an interview. There is no possibility of GC wastage

Iatiam

[bloddy1]

Yes, it is possible as long as your employer is willing to file.



Just to let you know the reverse is not true though. If your dates are current, and are eligible to file I-485, H1B cannot be filed.


Thanks! With H1-B approvals taking 6-9 months and with No premium processing due to shut down, wanted to make sure that was a possibility if opportunity arises.

[AceMan]

Where is this 800 GCs lost you are talking about? There are plenty of people waiting in line who don't need an interview. There is no possibility of GC wastage

Iatiam

Visa statistics show 139483 issued for 2018, the allocated number for 2018 was 140292 as shown in the September 2018 bulletin. Here we lost 809 visas.

[EB2/eb3]

Has anyone noticed that uscis is not even issuing biometrics notices for downgraders who are filing concurrently, until their 140 is approved! This is not how it processed applications in the past!

[swaugh]

Can anyone please explain this? Thank you.

[ferric]

Has anyone noticed that uscis is not even issuing biometrics notices for downgraders who are filing concurrently, until their 140 is approved! This is not how it processed applications in the past!

noticed ...where?

[EB2/eb3]

noticed ...where?
Trackitt.. ‘waiting for biometric from October filers’ is the name of the thread

[newyorker123]

Has anyone noticed that uscis is not even issuing biometrics notices for downgraders who are filing concurrently, until their 140 is approved! This is not how it processed applications in the past!

Are they at least allowing I140 premium processing when downgrading ??
I read somewhere no premium processing for I140 in EB2->EB3 downgrade case.

[mar2010er]

That is correct. It has to do with no original PERM attached with the I140 case when you downgrade using the Perm that was filed during the earlier EB2.

[itsmusa]

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

[iatiam]

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

Congrats! Gives us hope. Enjoy your freedom

Iatiam

[qesehmk]

Many congratulations itsmusa. Good luck with your future journey!
Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

[hope21]

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

Very happy for you, enjoy your GC life/future endeavors and keep visiting this forum, :-)

[itsmusa]

Thank you all so much for your wishes (explicit or silent).

[texas_]

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

Congratulations to you and your family.

Enjoy the GC life after waiting for long time

[mar2010er]

Congratulations. Hope you make the best out of it.

[AceMan]

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

Congratulations. Wish you the very best for your next phase of life after this long wait.
On an added note, this gives us that EB2 will move forward from the 1st April 2009 in this bulletin.

[Suva2001]

Hi everyone,
happy to report that my GC was approved y'day - EB2 PD of 03/20/2009 at TSC, 15 years after I entered in US and 10 years after GC journey started with EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
I could not thank you enough all gurus and members of this forum. I came to this forum daily and also sought important and timely advice many times.

Thank you all and I sincerely hope the best for you all.

Congratulations

[GDEVUL]

My PD is Dec- 29- 2009 - EB2 , Filed for I-485 and EAD in 2012 when it became current then it retrogated . Approved EAD and I-485 Pending. I am currently H1B (NOT Using EAD) .

-Any chances of priority date to be current in 2019?
-Can I downgrade to EB3 or should I stay , welcome your suggestions.

[canada]

My PD is Dec- 29- 2009 - EB2 , Filed for I-485 and EAD in 2012 when it became current then it retrogated . Approved EAD and I-485 Pending. I am currently H1B (NOT Using EAD) .

-Any chances of priority date to be current in 2019?
-Can I downgrade to EB3 or should I stay , welcome your suggestions.


If you go through this thread, I asked the same question- 28th August,2009- will I be current in 2019 ? I am told probably not but may be in March 2020. So I would say, please wait for few more visa bulletins to see how it’s moving

[gcvijay]

VB is out !!!

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-february-2019.html

[YTeleven]

VB is out !!!

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-february-2019.html

Now EB3India FAD is crossed EB2India FAD for the first time. That's a good news.
We can safely predict the USCIS will honor the EB3india FD next month too.
Also, we can expect the EB3India will move to 2011 in this FY itself.
Looks like still there is huge resistance to EB2India downgrading.

[EB2-03252009]

current since 10/01/2018, but still no approval. contacted congressmen, opened SR.. same old standard reply.. all the while I thought I just want to be current... now I know the pain of waiting after being current.

[NJMavarick]

---From the Bulletin----

EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First:

WORLDWIDE (most countries): Up to two months.
China and India: Up to one month.

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current for the foreseeable future.
China: Up to three months.
India: Up to one week

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Current
China: Up to three weeks.
India: Up to three months.
Mexico: Current
Philippines: Rapid movement to generate demand.

The above final action date projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through May. The determination of the actual monthly final action dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables. It is also important to remember that by no means has every applicant with a priority date earlier than a prevailing final action date been processed for final visa action, with applicants often processing at their own initiative and convenience.

[swaugh]

Out of curiosity, How come Philippines (also south Korea) allowed to use more than their quota, when they are not the most backlogged countries. This has been happening for years.
Can anyone please answer the above?

[qesehmk]

I have talked about it many times in the past and have sited this as one of the reasons litigation can actually succeed.

DoS applied country limit across EB and FB and says these countries underutilize quota in FB and hence can overutilize in EB.

But then the same DoS also says (in each visa bulletin) that the limit is not entitlement or quota. In other words no country is entitled to that number. Rather that is the max they can receive.

Thus DoS is in violation of the immigration laws or their own policy.


Out of curiosity, How come Philippines (also south Korea) allowed to use more than their quota, when they are not the most backlogged countries. This has been happening for years.
Can anyone please answer the above?

[swaugh]

Qesehmk - thanks for your response.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Where did we move the posts about Trump H1B tweet?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Now EB3India FAD is crossed EB2India FAD for the first time. That's a good news.
We can safely predict the USCIS will honor the EB3india FD next month too.
Also, we can expect the EB3India will move to 2011 in this FY itself.
Looks like still there is huge resistance to EB2India downgrading.

I am looking forward to your new projection chart. It would be very interesting if you could use the scenario of per country limit being removed and Annual Quota being 50K more.

[qesehmk]

Where did we move the posts about Trump H1B tweet?

Right here - http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2613-Trump?goto=newpost

Thought some folks might object to political discussion ..

[infotalk]

VB is out !!!

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-february-2019.html

EB2 not moving much again. Experts, please chime in. What does this mean ?

PD- 30May2009

[infotalk]

current since 10/01/2018, but still no approval. contacted congressmen, opened SR.. same old standard reply.. all the while I thought I just want to be current... now I know the pain of waiting after being current.

This is crazy. Didn't know that you have to wait after it becomes current.

PD-30May2009

[rocketfast]

This is crazy. Didn't know that you have to wait after it becomes current.

PD-30May2009

They are still only giving GCs to people that applied I-485 in May 2018. There is a interview backlog.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

They are still only giving GCs to people that applied I-485 in May 2018. There is a interview backlog.

This is a case of person who applied I-485 a few years ago. Not quite comparable.

[infotalk]

They are still only giving GCs to people that applied I-485 in May 2018. There is a interview backlog.

Is this true for EB2 and EB3 ?

Do they have interviews for EB2 as well ?

[jimmys]

They are still only giving GCs to people that applied I-485 in May 2018. There is a interview backlog.

The interview backlog depends on where your interview is scheduled.

[BigAnt]

Hello Aceman/YT Eleven/Members - What is your short term predictions for both Filing date and Final Action Date for EB3-India based on Feb 2019 visa bulletin?

"https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-february-2019.html"

Do you think Filing date in EB3- India would move beyond 1 -APR-2010 in this Fiscal year?



Thanks

[YTeleven]

Hello Aceman/YT Eleven/Members - What is your short term predictions for both Filing date and Final Action Date for EB3-India based on Feb 2019 visa bulletin?

"https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-february-2019.html"

Do you think Filing date in EB3- India would move beyond 1 -APR-2010 in this Fiscal year?



Thanks

The VB itself is saying that the FAD will have a potential monthly movement of 3 months each in EB3India category in coming months.
My prediction is that it will move into 2011 by end of the year 2019.

[EB22010Dec]

The VB itself is saying that the FAD will have a potential monthly movement of 3 months each in EB3India category in coming months.
My prediction is that it will move into 2011 by end of the year 2019.

YT - you say so ...

but, if EB2's start porting down and applying in EB3, wouldn't that slow down or stall EB3 ?

[newyorker123]

YT - you say so ...

but, if EB2's start porting down and applying in EB3, wouldn't that slow down or stall EB3 ?

Have the exact same question. If it does move 3 months to July 2010 for EB3, surely the EB2 downgrades will start (No one after May 2010 in EB2 has ever filed I485). What happens then ?

[YTeleven]

Have the exact same question. If it does move 3 months to July 2010 for EB3, surely the EB2 downgrades will start (No one after May 2010 in EB2 has ever filed I485). What happens then ?

Originally I thought downgrading is easier than upgrading but I changed my mind now, its tougher than upgrading to EB2.
My prediction is that only 25% of total EB2 applicants will be successful in downgrading to EB3, remaining will end up waiting in EB2I queue for their GC.
So EB3I will always be ahead of the EB2I in next 5 to 10 years.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Originally I thought downgrading is easier than upgrading but I changed my mind now, its tougher than upgrading to EB2.
My prediction is that only 25% of total EB2 applicants will be successful in downgrading to EB3, remaining will end up waiting in EB2I queue for their GC.
So EB3I will always be ahead of the EB2I in next 5 to 10 years.

WOW. This sounds as iconic as your chart projection a few years ago. You are the man bro! I would love to see another projection chart of yours. Can you create one more?

[YTeleven]

WOW. This sounds as iconic as your chart projection a few years ago. You are the man bro! I would love to see another projection chart of yours. Can you create one more?

Sorry. In my opinion EB3I queue is almost an empty queue and for EB2I queue there is not enough data available to project any such chart.
Please don't expect any chart from me for next 2 years.

[infotalk]

Originally I thought downgrading is easier than upgrading but I changed my mind now, its tougher than upgrading to EB2.
My prediction is that only 25% of total EB2 applicants will be successful in downgrading to EB3, remaining will end up waiting in EB2I queue for their GC.
So EB3I will always be ahead of the EB2I in next 5 to 10 years.

EB2 Projection please YTEleven. PD 30 May 2009

[excalibur123]

Sorry. In my opinion EB3I queue is almost an empty queue and for EB2I queue there is not enough data available to project any such chart.
Please don't expect any chart from me for next 2 years.

Empty queue ?? I believe EB3 still has enough numbers every year to fill its mandated quota of 2800 and then some more.

[YTeleven]

Empty queue ?? I believe EB3 still has enough numbers every year to fill its mandated quota of 2800 and then some more.

Yes It is an empty queue for me. Don't take it literal meaning of EMPTY. It does SPARSELY filled with some applicants but for me its a empty queue when I compare it with EB2I which has densely populated with 200K+ applicants. Also if you see the Eb3I movement for last 10 months: the first time USCIS started taking the POST July'07 applications were in APR. 2018 and in 10 months they moved the dates to APR'10. That's an average 3 months of movement for every VB and they are projecting same 3 months movement for every VB in near future. That shows how much sparsely filled queue it is.
We have an Average of 6K+ supply of VISAS in EB3I since FY15 and we don't have that much demand in EB3I with POST Jul'07 PDs. This emptiness is moving the PDs for the EB3I queue faster at the rate of 3Months / VB. This 3 month movement will continue if NO one from EB2I is ready to downgrade and consume the 6K+ supply of EB3 visas.

[newyorker123]

YTeleven, In post-2010May - 2011 end, there are almost 20-30 K (multiplied by 2 for dependents??) EB2 folks who have never seen EAD.

As you mentioned, if even 25% of them downgrade, thats way more than 10K. Won't this significantly slow down EB3I ? But probably we will see 2011 dates for EB3 this year.

My PD is in early 2012, so probably all this is useless to me :)

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Yes It is an empty queue for me. Don't take it literal meaning of EMPTY. It does SPARSELY filled with some applicants but for me its a empty queue when I compare it with EB2I which has densely populated with 200K+ applicants. Also if you see the Eb3I movement for last 10 months: the first time USCIS started taking the POST July'07 applications were in APR. 2018 and in 10 months they moved the dates to APR'10. That's an average 3 months of movement for every VB and they are projecting same 3 months movement for every VB in near future. That shows how much sparsely filled queue it is.
We have an Average of 6K+ supply of VISAS in EB3I since FY15 and we don't have that much demand in EB3I with POST Jul'07 PDs. This emptiness is moving the PDs for the EB3I queue faster at the rate of 3Months / VB. This 3 month movement will continue if NO one from EB2I is ready to downgrade and consume the 6K+ supply of EB3 visas.

Ok. Let me cut this up for us. Out of 200K EB2I and per your projection 25% downgrades = 50K and divide that by Average of 6K+ supply, that would mean it takes 9 yrs to clear the downgrades alone!

But let us hold our horses for just a week more..we could have the incredible good news of removal of Per Country Quota. Let us start projecting(or re-visit the projections) based on that!!

[Nishant_imt]

Hey guys,

What does the last line from the excerpt from Feb 2019 visa bulletin mean. Can anyone help me understand?

"The above final action date projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through May. The determination of the actual monthly final action dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables. It is also important to remember that by no means has every applicant with a priority date earlier than a prevailing final action date been processed for final visa action, with applicants often processing at their own initiative and convenience."

[dec2010]

Originally I thought downgrading is easier than upgrading but I changed my mind now, its tougher than upgrading to EB2.
My prediction is that only 25% of total EB2 applicants will be successful in downgrading to EB3, remaining will end up waiting in EB2I queue for their GC.
So EB3I will always be ahead of the EB2I in next 5 to 10 years.



YTeleven, can you pls elaborate on - "Originally I thought downgrading is easier than upgrading but I changed my mind now, its tougher than upgrading to EB2."

[4WatItsWorth]

YTeleven, can you pls elaborate on - "Originally I thought downgrading is easier than upgrading but I changed my mind now, its tougher than upgrading to EB2."First off folks who have an EAD in EB2 have lesser motivation. A combination of EAD and AP is like a mini GC.

Second, those with EADs who have changed jobs, it means starting the process all over again with a new Perm. This is not only costly but will involve uncertainty of RFEs, denials and headache of I-485 interview, which they wonÂ’t have if they just wait it out.

Third set is people with no EADs. Here, I can tell you from personal experience that companies and their lawyers do not support it, and have all sorts of arguments against it. I was just able to get mine filed concurrently with a new I140 but had to fight such a hard and long drawn battle within the company that I have burnt a lot of bridges and everyday has become a survival challenge for me. Besides, I am learning now that if I-140 is filed concurrently, it can take way longer, and remember premium processing is not available for this. So, to avail AC21 provisions, not only you have to wait it out for 180 days, for all practical reasons, you have to wait for the I-140 approval too, which can be way longer.

And, oh BTW, even if you have an EB3 I-140 from before and had ported up, chances are they will not let you use it. So, all in all, it is very very hard.

[excalibur123]

YTeleven, In post-2010May - 2011 end, there are almost 20-30 K (multiplied by 2 for dependents??) EB2 folks who have never seen EAD.

As you mentioned, if even 25% of them downgrade, thats way more than 10K. Won't this significantly slow down EB3I ? But probably we will see 2011 dates for EB3 this year.

My PD is in early 2012, so probably all this is useless to me :)


2009 was an exceptional year because it had to bear most of the impact of Recession and filings were significantly down. Even the Pending inventory of 2009 is not a good reflection because it is a mix of Before and After May 2009. (Before May all EB2s got GCs and what you see now in PI is the EB3 porters). So the true number of EB2 in 2009 was around 15K, not 12K that you see in PI. The numbers of EB2 from 2010 onwards are massive (25-35K each year).

Downporting may be hard but even if 25% EB2 port, they can easily use all EB3 quota including spillovers. And give enough time to people, they will arrange for downporting somehow and then this percentage would go up.

So I dont see EB3 moving past 2009 this year. I would be surprised if CO moves the filing date past Apr 2010 or USCIS honors them. They havent moved the EB3 filing date in latest bulletin, so I think the demand is already captured for EB3.

Anyone here after mid 2010 priority date is in for a very long haul - unless the law changes or significant spillovers are gotten.

[newyorker123]

> I would be surprised if CO moves the filing date past Apr 2010 or USCIS honors them. They havent moved the EB3 filing date in latest bulletin, so I think the demand is already captured for EB3.

They did mention that it will move up to 3 months in next bulletin, hence all this discussion.

[@rvsuc]

Due to various challenges in filing a new I-140 under EB3-I by EB2-I folks who have PD in 2010/2011 (and beyond), can we explore interfiling option to file 1-485 when EB3-I DF becomes current, this is instead of downgrading from EB2-I to EB3-I using the same PERM and file a new I-140. IMO - Though our EB2 based I-140 might be Invalidated with this approach, but still this seems to be an alternate path for us to get EAD/AP earlier than continue to wait in EB2-I queue forever.

Guru’s – Can you share your thoughts and suggest us whether the interfiling option is feasible and that can be leveraged by those who are willing to take some risk.

[excalibur123]

Yes It is an empty queue for me. Don't take it literal meaning of EMPTY. It does SPARSELY filled with some applicants but for me its a empty queue when I compare it with EB2I which has densely populated with 200K+ applicants. Also if you see the Eb3I movement for last 10 months: the first time USCIS started taking the POST July'07 applications were in APR. 2018 and in 10 months they moved the dates to APR'10. That's an average 3 months of movement for every VB and they are projecting same 3 months movement for every VB in near future. That shows how much sparsely filled queue it is.
We have an Average of 6K+ supply of VISAS in EB3I since FY15 and we don't have that much demand in EB3I with POST Jul'07 PDs. This emptiness is moving the PDs for the EB3I queue faster at the rate of 3Months / VB. This 3 month movement will continue if NO one from EB2I is ready to downgrade and consume the 6K+ supply of EB3 visas.

Well the final dates have moved to Apr 2009 for EB3, not Apr 2010. Apr 2010 is only for demand capture and that's also done now.

The porting from EB3 to EB2 had been very persistent, that's why it took EB2 6 years to truly go past 2008. So no surprise very little EB3 applicants were found till 2008 as 6 years worth of numbers were taken away by EB3s of many different years. Even Jan-Apr 2009 PI for EB2 is holding no one but EB3 porters who applied in Aug-Oct 2014. So again no surprise there are only a few EB3 applicants till Apr 2009.

EB3 would reach end of 2009 this FY but thats about it, regardless of what bulletin is saying. It might go into 2010 but would retrogress as downporters from mid-late 2009 start having their impact.

Also the right way to look at numbers from 2010 is to treat EB2+EB3 as a pool - so about 10K visas total. In my guess starting Jan 2010, EB2 downporters would take about 8K of these leaving 2K to original EB3s. This would make EB3 crawl much like EB2 crawled before. EB3 would move about 3 months per year, with EB2 about a few months behind it.

[excalibur123]

> I would be surprised if CO moves the filing date past Apr 2010 or USCIS honors them. They havent moved the EB3 filing date in latest bulletin, so I think the demand is already captured for EB3.

They did mention that it will move up to 3 months in next bulletin, hence all this discussion.

I believe they are referring to final action dates, not filing dates.

[YTeleven]

First off folks who have an EAD in EB2 have lesser motivation. A combination of EAD and AP is like a mini GC.

Second, those with EADs who have changed jobs, it means starting the process all over again with a new Perm. This is not only costly but will involve uncertainty of RFEs, denials and headache of I-485 interview, which they wonÂ’t have if they just wait it out.

Third set is people with no EADs. Here, I can tell you from personal experience that companies and their lawyers do not support it, and have all sorts of arguments against it. I was just able to get mine filed concurrently with a new I140 but had to fight such a hard and long drawn battle within the company that I have burnt a lot of bridges and everyday has become a survival challenge for me. Besides, I am learning now that if I-140 is filed concurrently, it can take way longer, and remember premium processing is not available for this. So, to avail AC21 provisions, not only you have to wait it out for 180 days, for all practical reasons, you have to wait for the I-140 approval too, which can be way longer.

And, oh BTW, even if you have an EB3 I-140 from before and had ported up, chances are they will not let you use it. So, all in all, it is very very hard.

Excellent post. I couldn't explain better than this why I thought downgrade is tougher than upgrade.
I'm expecting more such posts on first hand experiences in downgrade to EB3I so that we can predict an accurate percentage of downgrades can happen in future.
As of now I'm predicting it as 25%.

[YTeleven]

Hey guys,

What does the last line from the excerpt from Feb 2019 visa bulletin mean. Can anyone help me understand?

"The above final action date projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through May. The determination of the actual monthly final action dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables. It is also important to remember that by no means has every applicant with a priority date earlier than a prevailing final action date been processed for final visa action, with applicants often processing at their own initiative and convenience."

May be Spec & Q add their thoughts on this statement.
How I interpreted is that the USCIS/DOS can move the FAD dates forward even there is some inactive applicants in the demand and whose final action is not started for some reason.
They simply ignore that demand and move the FADs. If this is correct then this approach may retrogress the FADs in the last month if that inactive demand becomes active and demands a visa.

[excalibur123]

Excellent post. I couldn't explain better than this why I thought downgrade is tougher than upgrade.
I'm expecting more such posts on first hand experiences in downgrade to EB3I so that we can predict an accurate percentage of downgrades can happen in future.
As of now I'm predicting it as 25%.

Downporting percentages, my take
May 2009 PDs - 5%
June - Aug 2009 PDs - 25%
Sep - Dec 2009 PDs - 35%
Jan - Apr 2010 PDs - 50%
May 2010 onwards - 60%

Given time and motivation people would FIND A WAY.

[EB2/eb3]

Well the final dates have moved to Apr 2009 for EB3, not Apr 2010. Apr 2010 is only for demand capture and that's also done now.

The porting from EB3 to EB2 had been very persistent, that's why it took EB2 6 years to truly go past 2008. So no surprise very little EB3 applicants were found till 2008 as 6 years worth of numbers were taken away by EB3s of many different years. Even Jan-Apr 2009 PI for EB2 is holding no one but EB3 porters who applied in Aug-Oct 2014. So again no surprise there are only a few EB3 applicants till Apr 2009.

EB3 would reach end of 2009 this FY but thats about it, regardless of what bulletin is saying. It might go into 2010 but would retrogress as downporters from mid-late 2009 start having their impact.

Also the right way to look at numbers from 2010 is to treat EB2+EB3 as a pool - so about 10K visas total. In my guess starting Jan 2010, EB2 downporters would take about 8K of these leaving 2K to original EB3s. This would make EB3 crawl much like EB2 crawled before. EB3 would move about 3 months per year, with EB2 about a few months behind it.
Excellent analysis! I totally agree that eb3 fad will not go beyond 2009 in fy2019.

[YTeleven]

YTeleven, In post-2010May - 2011 end, there are almost 20-30 K (multiplied by 2 for dependents??) EB2 folks who have never seen EAD.

As you mentioned, if even 25% of them downgrade, thats way more than 10K. Won't this significantly slow down EB3I ? But probably we will see 2011 dates for EB3 this year.

My PD is in early 2012, so probably all this is useless to me :)

Continuing my previous predictions by mid of next year EB3I dates will move to 2012.

[YTeleven]

EB2 Projection please YTEleven. PD 30 May 2009

You no need my help here. You can predict this date for yourself.
Find the number of applicants before your PD and divide that number by the visa supply. You can safely assume 4k supply of Eb2India Visas in FY19 & FY20.
More over the FEB VB already gave the guidance of the VB movement(1week/VB), based on that guidance it may take 8 VBs to get to your date.

[Airbender]

You no need my help here. You can predict this date for yourself.
Find the number of applicants before your PD and divide that number by the visa supply. You can safely assume 4k supply of Eb2India Visas in FY19 & FY20.
More over the FEB VB already gave the guidance of the VB movement(1week/VB), based on that guidance it may take 8 VBs to get to your date.

Why 8 VBs shouldn't it be approx. 6 VBs for May30?

My PD is July 29th, so for me I am assuming 12-13 VBs. Is this a correct esitimate ?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

EB2 Projection please YTEleven. PD 30 May 2009

Per VB Guidance, it should take 6 months for you to be current and get your card. But my prediction is that there will be some SO in EB2 this year and you will get it earlier than 6 months if you have already filed AOS. I will even go as far as saying that EB2I may even steal more EB3 Visas like it has been happening for the past few years. So, I see the EB2I FAD hitting October 09.

[excalibur123]

Continuing my previous predictions by mid of next year EB3I dates will move to 2012.

Is there a way we can bet on this ? :)

my take, EB3I dates wont cross 2010 for another 2 years. You are underestimating both EB3 demand and the resolve & means of EB2 folks to downport.

[EB2/eb3]

Why 8 VBs shouldn't it be approx. 6 VBs for May30?

My PD is July 29th, so for me I am assuming 12-13 VBs. Is this a correct esitimate ?
The predictions are only till May, after may we can expect some SO

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Is there a way we can bet on this ? :)

my take, EB3I dates wont cross 2010 for another 2 years. You are underestimating both EB3 demand and the resolve & means of EB2 folks to downport.

Per VB Guidance, EB3I will move at the pace of 3 months per VB. So, using that guidance, we have almost 7 months to go in this FY. That would mean the PD will move to 2011 in this FY itself. Using the same guidance, we only need 4 months in the Next FY to move PD into 2012.

[Moveon]

My PD is Dec 2009 and I had responded to my RFE in September 2018 i.e my medicals + the supplement J . I understand that they passed an order that Medical reports would be Valid for 2 years instead of one year from Nov of 2018. I wanted to know if the medical I filed in September 2018 would be valid until Sept of 2019 or Sept of 2020 ?

[gcwait]

Per VB Guidance, EB3I will move at the pace of 3 months per VB. So, using that guidance, we have almost 7 months to go in this FY. That would mean the PD will move to 2011 in this FY itself. Using the same guidance, we only need 4 months in the Next FY to move PD into 2012.
I wish calculations were so easy. :) I totally agree that there will be a sudden brake once date hits May 2010. BTW, after some push I've been able to file EB2-Eb3 downgrade last month. I've never filed I485 before. There are about 25 people in my company who have filed downgrade with me. Don't underestimate the will power of people hungry from last 10 years. :)

[iatiam]

I wish calculations were so easy. :) I totally agree that there will be a sudden brake once date hits May 2010. BTW, after some push I've been able to file EB2-Eb3 downgrade last month. I've never filed I485 before. There are about 25 people in my company who have filed downgrade with me. Don't underestimate the will power of people hungry from last 10 years. :)
Well said. With due respect to YT, he is totally not understanding the level to which people would go to get a green card. We have used and abused the system like anything. Pre-adjucated 485s, fake resumes, fake MNC managers and fake organization charts. Do you think we would hesitate to down port.

Reality is that EB3 has not been consistently ahead of EB2 and it takes time to do all the paperwork. When the time comes, people would down port. There will be a weird situation with EB2 and EB3 swinging back and forth in one year's time.

Iatiam

[gcwait]

Well said. With due respect to YT, he is totally not understanding the level to which people would go to get a green card. We have used and abused the system like anything. Pre-adjucated 485s, fake resumes, fake MNC managers and fake organization charts. Do you think we would hesitate to down port.

Reality is that EB3 has not been consistently ahead of EB2 and it takes time to do all the paperwork. When the time comes, people would down port. There will be a weird situation with EB2 and EB3 swinging back and forth in one year's time.

Iatiam

One only needs right knowledge and determination to make it happen. It is very easy as compared to EB3-Eb2 upward porting. We are legally allowed to pay for both I140 petition and I485 application. Once we offered to pay for both, company couldn't do much to deny it.

[vsivarama]

I wish calculations were so easy. :) I totally agree that there will be a sudden brake once date hits May 2010. BTW, after some push I've been able to file EB2-Eb3 downgrade last month. I've never filed I485 before. There are about 25 people in my company who have filed downgrade with me. Don't underestimate the will power of people hungry from last 10 years. :)

My questions would be the following:
i) Why would we need to fight it out for downgrading? Shouldn't it be easier?
ii) Haven't the Chinese been downgrading consistently for a while, because of which their EB2/EB3 dates are close enough (going by their EB2/EB3 numbers, the EB3 folks should have been way ahead, but are being pulled back because of downgrades.). Plus compared to India their wait is not bad at all but they still downgrade. I do not see why there will be a resistance among Indians to downgrade.

[gcwait]

My questions would be the following:
i) Why would we need to fight it out for downgrading? Shouldn't it be easier?
ii) Haven't the Chinese been downgrading consistently for a while, because of which their EB2/EB3 dates are close enough (going by their EB2/EB3 numbers, the EB3 folks should have been way ahead, but are being pulled back because of downgrades.). Plus compared to India their wait is not bad at all but they still downgrade. I do not see why there will be a resistance among Indians to downgrade.

i) I really wish it could be easier but we all know the reasons.
ii) I don't think there is any resistance among Indians to downgrade. People who have already filed I485 won't do it because of the reasons already discussed in the forum. Whoever has not filed it yet will try with their maximum capacity to do it. Hence the downgrade rate will increase substantially once date hits May 2010. If their companies won't allow it, they will change ships and start from scratch. Eb2 dates will take a while to catch up.

[excalibur123]

Per VB Guidance, EB3I will move at the pace of 3 months per VB. So, using that guidance, we have almost 7 months to go in this FY. That would mean the PD will move to 2011 in this FY itself. Using the same guidance, we only need 4 months in the Next FY to move PD into 2012.

No dear - the VB is predicting till only May. You cannot use that literally and also for future. As I mentioned in other posts, 2009 is exceptional. You can go through that analysis.

So Apr 2009 plus 9 months for 3 VBs till May = Jan 2010.

[excalibur123]

gcwait - That’s amazing. Just to get an idea are the 25 people with you with or without EADs?

[bloddy1]

I’m awaiting Application filing date movement for i485 filing with a pd June 2010 EB2-I. The company was recently acquired another and went through name change. They are filing an amendment, my question is can I file amendment along with EB3 downgrade and concurrent 485 at the same time?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

No dear - the VB is predicting till only May. You cannot use that literally and also for future. As I mentioned in other posts, 2009 is exceptional. You can go through that analysis.

So Apr 2009 plus 9 months for 3 VBs till May = Jan 2010.

This is just 'prediction' right? :D we are all shooting air bro. Realistically, the only movement that matters for EB3I at this time is upto April VB if they are to have any chance of approval in this FY, any Date movement past April VB is just for the purpose of generating demand for the next FY.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I’m awaiting Application filing date movement for i485 filing with a pd June 2010 EB2-I. The company was recently acquired another and went through name change. They are filing an amendment, my question is can I file amendment along with EB3 downgrade and concurrent 485 at the same time?

Ask your attorney bro. You can post what you learned on this forum from your attorney.

[gcwait]

This is just 'prediction' right? :D we are all shooting air bro. Realistically, the only movement that matters for EB3I at this time is upto April VB if they are to have any chance of approval in this FY, any Date movement past April VB is just for the purpose of generating demand for the next FY.
I don't think it is correct. The prediction provided in the VB is for FAD. They have already built the pipeline by moving FD in last few bulletins. So, the FAD movement beyond April VB will not be for mere demand generation. They can build the pipeline for next FY by moving the FD in the beginning of next FY.

[gcwait]

gcwait - That’s amazing. Just to get an idea are the 25 people with you with or without EADs?
None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

[EB22010Dec]

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

GCWait - thank you for the answer, just a follow up quesiton. What are the groups priority dates ?
I am contemplating downgrade myself as I changed jobs recently and I am starting over, but not sure if I should do it.

[gcwait]

GCWait - thank you for the answer, just a follow up quesiton. What are the groups priority dates ?
I am contemplating downgrade myself as I changed jobs recently and I am starting over, but not sure if I should do it.
Nov 2009 through Jan 2010. If your PD is in Dec 2010 as your user handle suggests, then I would recommend to wait and see how it pans out once date crosses May 2010. Anyone who is eligible to do it now, should do it immediately. Remember early filers will get the maximum benefit.

[EB32010]

I don't think it is correct. The prediction provided in the VB is for FAD. They have already built the pipeline by moving FD in last few bulletins. So, the FAD movement beyond April VB will not be for mere demand generation. They can build the pipeline for next FY by moving the FD in the beginning of next FY.
This is simply not true. There is no way EB3 DF will stay at April 2010 until Oct 19. Whether USCIS will honor DF is a separate question.

[EB32010]

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

Did you all tried to do PP?

[EB22010Dec]

Nov 2009 through Jan 2010. If your PD is in Dec 2010 as your user handle suggests, then I would recommend to wait and see how it pans out once date crosses May 2010. Anyone who is eligible to do it now, should do it immediately. Remember early filers will get the maximum benefit.

Thank you and appreciate the advice.

[EB22010Dec]

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

Just to add to this ... NONE of the friends I know who already has an EAD are even thinking about porting over to EB3 and restarting the process..
When I suggested it to some people, they just laughed it off ... I believe 20 - 25% max will port down and those are people mostly with out EAD + AP.

Also, the new requirement of going to interview will be a deterrent to many people who already has an EAD.
GC is important to people, but staying in US Of A is even more improtant, if there are easier ways to do it, they will.

I think the true date movement for EB3 after May 2010 will be simple equation -

( Eb2 + Eb3 demand ) - 7k( EB3 quota + spillover ) a year and the progress of FD and FAD depends on that equation.

Does any one have stats regarding that demand ? How may people are waiting for AOS in each year ? 2010, 2011, 2012, etc.

[gcconnect]

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

gcwait - is there any specific reason not using old EB3, when that is straight AOS filing. i am also in the same situation and planning to ask my company when my date is eligible for filing .

[EB2/eb3]

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.
So did u file new 140 concurrently? If so, did u receive bio metrics notifications?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I don't think it is correct. The prediction provided in the VB is for FAD. They have already built the pipeline by moving FD in last few bulletins. So, the FAD movement beyond April VB will not be for mere demand generation. They can build the pipeline for next FY by moving the FD in the beginning of next FY.

So, are you saying EB3I folks who become current in May VB will get their GC's in this FY? I know from last year a few friends who filed in May, got their Cards only AFTER October. Also remember, USCIS has been known to only honor the Filing Date erratically. The filing date has become nothing more than a placeholder.

[GCkaLADDU]

Well said. With due respect to YT, he is totally not understanding the level to which people would go to get a green card. We have used and abused the system like anything. Pre-adjucated 485s, fake resumes, fake MNC managers and fake organization charts. Do you think we would hesitate to down port.

Reality is that EB3 has not been consistently ahead of EB2 and it takes time to do all the paperwork. When the time comes, people would down port. There will be a weird situation with EB2 and EB3 swinging back and forth in one year's time.

Iatiam

I think YT's apprehension about down porting might be right. Thought I don't wish it on anyone, these are different times than when Chinese were doing it back in 2013-2014. The fear of H1B/I-140/etc rejections was not that widespread and it was pretty much a given thing that your petition would most likely get approved.

However, these are different times and all it would take is a few rejections associated with down porting to curb the enthusiasm of individuals/companies.

My two cents.

[excalibur123]

So, are you saying EB3I folks who become current in May VB will get their GC's in this FY? I know from last year a few friends who filed in May, got their Cards only AFTER October. Also remember, USCIS has been known to only honor the Filing Date erratically. The filing date has become nothing more than a placeholder.

You are right, the time from becoming current to getting GC is long enough that it spills over into next FY. But this is a relatively new issue due to interviews and greater scrutiny. So CO is building the demand early enough this year - people who file EB3 AOS from Oct - Feb based on filing dates would have initiated their processing and likely get their GC within the FY, as their FADs catch up with the filing dates.

USCIS honoring the filing dates is not erratic as of now because EB3 demand was not known. Once CO has enough numbers to make good decisions for rest of the year, he would stop advancing filing dates. He is well aware of likely spillover counts and expected downporting.

[EB32010]

You are right, the time from becoming current to getting GC is long enough that it spills over into next FY. But this is a relatively new issue due to interviews and greater scrutiny. So CO is building the demand early enough this year - people who file EB3 AOS from Oct - Feb based on filing dates would have initiated their processing and likely get their GC within the FY, as their FADs catch up with the filing dates.

USCIS honoring the filing dates is not erratic as of now because EB3 demand was not known. Once CO has enough numbers to make good decisions for rest of the year, he would stop advancing filing dates. He is well aware of likely spillover counts and expected downporting.
CO is worried not just for this year. He is worried about next year as well. In order for him to start allocating GC for FY20, he have to move DF dates starting April or May of this year.

[gcwait]

So, are you saying EB3I folks who become current in May VB will get their GC's in this FY? I know from last year a few friends who filed in May, got their Cards only AFTER October. Also remember, USCIS has been known to only honor the Filing Date erratically. The filing date has become nothing more than a placeholder.
I am not sure why you are comparing with last year. Last year people filed in May and hence they couldn't get the approval by year end. I am talking about the people who have filed in the First quarter of this FY. They will get remaining three quarters in the FY for the processing. Not all people will get the approval this FY, but a good percentage should get it. If you are following filing dates closely this year, you will see there is much a better coordination between DOS and USCIS now. In last check-in CO had mentioned that USCIS may not use FD starting next month and then USCIS posted the exact same update on their website.

[drop2ocean]

I’m awaiting Application filing date movement for i485 filing with a pd June 2010 EB2-I. The company was recently acquired another and went through name change. They are filing an amendment, my question is can I file amendment along with EB3 downgrade and concurrent 485 at the same time?

Yes, i am in the same boat. Attorney said they will be able to file the downgrade with the amendment

[sanjeevtrivedi]

Continuing my previous predictions by mid of next year EB3I dates will move to 2012.

My PD in June 2011 EB3-I. I thought it will become current early 2023. But not sure as EB2 downgrades may impact. What are everyone's thought on the same?

[YTeleven]

My PD in June 2011 EB3-I. I thought it will become current early 2023. But not sure as EB2 downgrades may impact. What are everyone's thought on the same?

Forget about 2023... you should get your GC by 2020. Only X-factor is the downward porting rate. Which I don't think an issue at-least for an year or two.
Lucky you didn't upgrade but don't curse down graders now, they suffered a lot due to upgrades earlier.

[gcconnect]

My PD is Nov 2010. EB3I got 140 and ported to EB2I. what are my chances for getting at least EAD. i am in this country for the last 12 years and still in H1B.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

He is well aware of likely spillover counts and expected downporting.

I wish 'he' was that 'well' aware. History suggests otherwise. EB3I has been losing SO visas to EB2I continuously over the previous few years because of miscalculation by CO. My prediction is that it will be no different this FY. We have no clue how much EB3I demand exists at this time because they have changed the format of the PI, which itself was always a set of fudged numbers. But at least it gave some idea of the backlog. The current PI gives us no idea of the backlog at all.

[AceMan]

Forget about 2023... you should get your GC by 2020. Only X-factor is the downward porting rate. Which I don't think an issue at-least for an year or two.
Lucky you didn't upgrade but don't curse down graders now, they suffered a lot due to upgrades earlier.

The porters won’t have an impact till the final dates in Eb3 moves beyond May 2010. I also did not upgrade in 2016 when I had a chance, as I realized for my Feb 2011 date Eb3 was most likely to be faster. I know Eb3 is basically subset of Eb2 skills and people who qualify will definitely downgrade.

[Raj0687]

My PD in June 2011 EB3-I. I thought it will become current early 2023. But not sure as EB2 downgrades may impact. What are everyone's thought on the same?


Forget about 2023... you should get your GC by 2020. Only X-factor is the downward porting rate. Which I don't think an issue at-least for an year or two.
Lucky you didn't upgrade but don't curse down graders now, they suffered a lot due to upgrades earlier.

My PD is around the same time, it feels good to hear at least for now, but 2020 sounds too optimistic.

[AceMan]

My PD is around the same time, it feels good to hear at least for now, but 2020 sounds too optimistic.

I would call it realistic. With the filing date advanced to April 2010, they would have been able to gauge the demand till Jan 2010 during the first quarter 19 for EB3, that would include the people who have ported to EB3 in the first quarter of FY 19. The official prediction is also 3 months movement per bulletin for the next 3 months. 2010 had very low count on PERMs, and was a recession year. So even with porting I would think the EB3 filers till May 2011 should be able to scrape through in 2020.

[ak7419]

@Aceman when do you think EB2I Sep 2009 would be current? I am losing hope that I would get it in the current FY.

[bikenlalan]

I have a EB2 PD of Feb-2011, and I had reached out to the head of HR at my company and the attorney separately with questions of starting the process of EB-3 downgrade. The Law firm may be in the top tier of law firms in the country, so am sure they may have come across this request from others as well. I did not get a single response from either my company or the attorney if they would even be willing to start the process.
I have not tried to push this yet, as my date is still further away and how this FY pans out for EB-3. I think, this may be the case with others as well, as they may be playing the waiting game for now but as dates move further, porting will increase.

I wish YT's prediction for 2011's getting greened in 2020 be true but, there may be increased motivation from EB-2's Nov 2009 and later to downgrade and maybe stall the Eb-3 movement in 2010, once the gap between FAD of Eb-2 and Eb-3 widens.

[kisvasa]

I would call it realistic. With the filing date advanced to April 2010, they would have been able to gauge the demand till Jan 2010 during the first quarter 19 for EB3, that would include the people who have ported to EB3 in the first quarter of FY 19. The official prediction is also 3 months movement per bulletin for the next 3 months. 2010 had very low count on PERMs, and was a recession year. So even with porting I would think the EB3 filers till May 2011 should be able to scrape through in 2020.

@Aceman, Agree with you, a lot of it depends on porting rate and how the officials treat the porting applications (positively / negatively). A question on the Filing dates though, if you are anticipating that EB3 Final Action Dates reaching May 2011 before end of 2020 (i hope you referred to FY2020 per USCIS) how do you anticipate the Filing Dates movement over the next few months leading to end of FY19 ?

[kisvasa]

I would call it realistic. With the filing date advanced to April 2010, they would have been able to gauge the demand till Jan 2010 during the first quarter 19 for EB3, that would include the people who have ported to EB3 in the first quarter of FY 19. The official prediction is also 3 months movement per bulletin for the next 3 months. 2010 had very low count on PERMs, and was a recession year. So even with porting I would think the EB3 filers till May 2011 should be able to scrape through in 2020.

@Aceman assuming that May 2001 filers will get greened by 2020 how do you anticipate the FILING DATES movement over the next few months leading up to FY19 end ? My date is 27-Apr-2011 on EB3 so desperately waiting to atleast get an EAD this year. Thanks !

[montyp80]

Continuing my previous predictions by mid of next year EB3I dates will move to 2012.

Hi YT, in your original projection, did you ever get to EB3I Jan 2014 dates? If so, by when? Sorry, I don't know how to get to that file. Thanks in advance.

[vbollu]

Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?

[swaugh]

Hi experts - what is the new USCIS requirement for employment based i-485 interviews?

An interview is required when the i-140 was filed after March 6 2017 (OR)
An interview is required when the i-485 was filed after March 6 2017.

Please clarify and thanks for your help.

[skpanda]

vbollu
"Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?"

U are long way out. I would recommend waiting for 2 or 3 VBs to see how to the filing dates move. I have a feeling that filing dates will stall in 2010 this FY (ends in Sep 2019). Next year there may be some rapid movement depending on how much inventory is cleared in this FY.

[vbollu]

vbollu
"Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?"

U are long way out. I would recommend waiting for 2 or 3 VBs to see how to the filing dates move. I have a feeling that filing dates will stall in 2010 this FY (ends in Sep 2019). Next year there may be some rapid movement depending on how much inventory is cleared in this FY.


thanks for your reply.

[texas_]

vbollu
"Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?"

U are long way out. I would recommend waiting for 2 or 3 VBs to see how to the filing dates move. I have a feeling that filing dates will stall in 2010 this FY (ends in Sep 2019). Next year there may be some rapid movement depending on how much inventory is cleared in this FY.

SK,
It appears to me that both EB2/3 I would end up receiving around 10K visas every year, and next FY. Off those visas 70% of them would be received by EB3.
Looks like EB3 FD would move into early 2011 by this FY i.e. Sept 2019

[AceMan]

@Aceman when do you think EB2I Sep 2009 would be current? I am losing hope that I would get it in the current FY.

May, June demand for EB2 is very high. From April to August we have about 5250 people waiting already. You need a horizontal SO of more than 3000 for the last quarter to get to your PD this FY. It is possible, but not very optimistic.

[AceMan]

Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?

Your dates are too far out to make a realistic decision now. You have another option if you want to try that. If possible, you can work out with your company, they can file a brand new perm (1 year time frame) once it is approved, file for 140 in EB3 premium if the dates are current (either for filing or final) at that time concurrently with 485. The advantage of this approach would be both your existing EB2 and the new EB3 petitions would be valid and based on the dates you can select what ever your best option would be then.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Hopes got raised with EB-3 fast movement, my PD is EB2 Nov 2011, is it better to downgrade to EB3 now or better to be continue on the same EB-2 line? will there be any chance to get current in next 2-3 years?

Check with your attorney if downgrading to EB3 means you have to abandon your EB2 Que. As far as I know, you can be in both ques at the same time.

[NJMavarick]

The porters won’t have an impact till the final dates in Eb3 moves beyond May 2010. I also did not upgrade in 2016 when I had a chance, as I realized for my Feb 2011 date Eb3 was most likely to be faster. I know Eb3 is basically subset of Eb2 skills and people who qualify will definitely downgrade.

I think if the FAD moves beyond May 2010 for EB3 then would it be safe to assume that the FD for EB3 will be somewhere in 2011? Further, if USCIS decides not to consider the FD then how does it help 2011 EB3 folks? Would the dates not stall in 2010 because of downward porting?

What am I missing? FYI, my priority date is mid-2011 and so trying to assess when will I be "current".

[AceMan]

@Aceman - I think if the FAD moves beyond May 2010 for EB3 then would it be safe to assume that the FD for EB3 will be somewhere in 2011? Further, if USCIS decides not to consider the FD then how does it help 2011 EB3 folks? Would the dates not stall in 2010 because of downward porting?

What am I missing? FYI, my priority date is mid-2011 and so trying to assess when will I be "current".I don't think FD would be moving at all this quarter based on the noises we hear from USCIS and DOS. We are expecting the FAD to be around April 2010 in June bulletin and if there is not enough demand hoping them to push the dates out by a year similar to the movement we saw in April 2018. The stalling will come into the picture only after that in FY 20.

[NJMavarick]

I don't think FD would be moving at all this quarter based on the noises we hear from USCIS and DOS. We are expecting the FAD to be around April 2010 in June bulletin and if there is not enough demand hoping them to push the dates out by a year similar to the movement we saw in April 2018. The stalling will come into the picture only after that in FY 20.

Given the conservative approach by CO, what makes you think that they will push the FAD date by a year into 2011? He might just push it by 6 months or less which can lead to downward porting and stalling of the dates. I am just trying to ascertain possibilities though I would be more than happy if he pushes it by a year into 2011.

Furthermore, when is the visa number considered allotted or used from the overall quota? Only when I-485 is approved or when the I-40 is filed when the priority date is current? The reason I ask is because I am thinking this would have an impact on the moving of the dates especially when porting kicks in.

[vbollu]

Your dates are too far out to make a realistic decision now. You have another option if you want to try that. If possible, you can work out with your company, they can file a brand new perm (1 year time frame) once it is approved, file for 140 in EB3 premium if the dates are current (either for filing or final) at that time concurrently with 485. The advantage of this approach would be both your existing EB2 and the new EB3 petitions would be valid and based on the dates you can select what ever your best option would be then.

thanks for your reply.

[@rvsuc]

Guru's - Can you clarify whether interfiling (without switching from EB2-I to EB3-I) will be a feasible option for us to explore, so that we can file 1-485 when EB3-I FD becomes current for PD holders in 2010 and 2011.

[AceMan]

Given the conservative approach by CO, what makes you think that they will push the FAD date by a year into 2011? He might just push it by 6 months or less which can lead to downward porting and stalling of the dates. I am just trying to ascertain possibilities though I would be more than happy if he pushes it by a year into 2011.

Furthermore, when is the visa number considered allotted or used from the overall quota? Only when I-485 is approved or when the I-40 is filed when the priority date is current? The reason I ask is because I am thinking this would have an impact on the moving of the dates especially when porting kicks in.

It happened once in 2017 July, where the dates moved by 9 months, and in 2018 April where dates moved by 13 months. If the 3 months projected movement till May is materialized and even then there is not enough demand, I anticipate another 1 year movement for last quarter.

Visa number is considered allotted only after the approval.

[NJMavarick]

It happened once in 2017 July, where the dates moved by 9 months, and in 2018 April where dates moved by 13 months. If the 3 months projected movement till May is materialized and even then there is not enough demand, I anticipate another 1 year movement for last quarter.

Visa number is considered allotted only after the approval.

I hope, whatever you saying turns out to be true but it can go either way! I am fairly confident that there would not be much demand until the May bulletin as dates would not have surpassed May 2010.

If Visa number is considered allotted only after approval and no premium processing is allowed for porting then would it not take in excess of 6 months for the porters to be even considered for EB3 and use the EB3 visa number? In that case, CO would definitely want to move the dates further down. If he does not do that then there is a high possibility of visa wastage in the last 2 quarters. Would you agree?

[ak7419]

May, June demand for EB2 is very high. From April to August we have about 5250 people waiting already. You need a horizontal SO of more than 3000 for the last quarter to get to your PD this FY. It is possible, but not very optimistic.

Are you implying that there aren't very many applications from July thru Sep 2009 (EB2I) as compared to May and June?

[iatiam]

Are you implying that there aren't very many applications from July thru Sep 2009 (EB2I) as compared to May and June?

Based on July 2018 inventory these are the numbers for 2009,

April: 649
May: 1,429
June: 1,411
July: 968
August: 801
September: 1,006

As you can see there is a spike in numbers for May and June and then numbers come down dramatically. July and August we were deep in recession and this makes sense

[AceMan]

I hope, whatever you saying turns out to be true but it can go either way! I am fairly confident that there would not be much demand until the May bulletin as dates would not have surpassed May 2010.

If Visa number is considered allotted only after approval and no premium processing is allowed for porting then would it not take in excess of 6 months for the porters to be even considered for EB3 and use the EB3 visa number? In that case, CO would definitely want to move the dates further down. If he does not do that then there is a high possibility of visa wastage in the last 2 quarters. Would you agree?

Much downgrade demand till May 2010. Also 2009/10 were recession years, so general demand also expected to be low.

Yes, and that is why I am saying down porters are not going to be a factor for FY 19. Once the dates move past May 2010, we are in an un-chartered territory. Visa wastage, I don't think it will happen this FY.

[ak7419]

I am one of those who believes that recession did not make an inch difference in no: of applications filed but that's not the topic I want to discuss. Thanks for the numbers. Can we assume that those numbers came down even further as of today?

[vbollu]

Based on July 2018 inventory these are the numbers for 2009,

April: 649
May: 1,429
June: 1,411
July: 968
August: 801
September: 1,006

As you can see there is a spike in numbers for May and June and then numbers come down dramatically. July and August we were deep in recession and this makes sense

we can take off 3k (1k last FY quota, 1k SO, this FY beginning quoata) numbers from the inventory.

[blackbull]

These are old numbers. I would wait for the latest 485 inventory numbers to make more accurate predictions. It's interesting that they haven't released the inventory since last July. Pathetic to say the least!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

If Visa number is considered allotted only after approval and no premium processing is allowed for porting then would it not take in excess of 6 months for the porters to be even considered for EB3 and use the EB3 visa number? In that case, CO would definitely want to move the dates further down. If he does not do that then there is a high possibility of visa wastage in the last 2 quarters. Would you agree?
This is exactly what i have been saying. I am expecting some EB3 SO to be stolen by EB2 folks this year also, like it has been happening the past few years.

[skpanda]

This is exactly what i have been saying. I am expecting some EB3 SO to be stolen by EB2 folks this year also, like it has been happening the past few years.


Stolen.. ha ha.. u seem to be really pissed off at your wait time to get GC. Take it easy. You are not alone.

If you go read your statement again.. u will realize the absurdity of ur choice if words. no applicant has any say in Visa usage.. let alone steal anything.

Moreover most of the guys waiting in EB2 line are porters from EB3. If it is any consolation.. think of this as those guys getting their GCs for their original EB3 line (if they have not ported).

Everyone is trying to get out if this shithole wait. Some are doing EB1C..some are doing porting etc. 99% of people will take any oppurtunity to get their GC faster. Ultimately its DOS / USCIS / Laws of the. country that govern GC allocation. No body else has an iota of control.

So chill brother...

I am not EB3 porter.. but I have sympathized and supported their porting, even though it delays my EB2 DEC 2010 PD. I have looked at EB2 and EB3 as a single group for several years now.... therefore porting / incorrect GC allocation in these 2 categories does not bother me.

[suninphx]

Stolen.. ha ha.. u seem to be really pissed off at your wait time to get GC. Take it easy. You are not alone.

If you go read your statement again.. u will realize the absurdity of ur choice if words. no applicant has any say in Visa usage.. let alone steal anything.

Moreover most of the guys waiting in EB2 line are porters from EB3. If it is any consolation.. think of this as those guys getting their GCs for their original EB3 line (if they have not ported).

Everyone is trying to get out if this shithole wait. Some are doing EB1C..some are doing porting etc. 99% of people will take any oppurtunity to get their GC faster. Ultimately its DOS / USCIS / Laws of the. country that govern GC allocation. No body else has an iota of control.

So chill brother...

I am not EB3 porter.. but I have sympathized and supported their porting, even though it delays my EB2 DEC 2010 PD. I have looked at EB2 and EB3 as a single group for several years now.... therefore porting / incorrect GC allocation in these 2 categories does not bother me.

I have always felt that diverting some EB3 visas to EB2 is CO's way to balance the things. ( Whether it's right thing to do or not - answer would depend upon every one's personal situation/opinion).

[bikenlalan]

I was looking at the PI at a high level and comparing the last two released inventory. The EB-2I inventory jumped for the months of May and June 2009, even though the USCIS was only accepting FAD for the bulletins released then. These PI numbers already seems fudged, do any of you think that USCIS botched up these numbers further to kinda slow down EB2 movement to trigger downgrades to EB3? They would have clearly known internally that EB3 has depleted inventory and dates would be moving ahead of EB2I.

[AceMan]

I was looking at the PI at a high level and comparing the last two released inventory. The EB-2I inventory jumped for the months of May and June 2009, even though the USCIS was only accepting FAD for the bulletins released then. These PI numbers already seems fudged, do any of you think that USCIS botched up these numbers further to kinda slow down EB2 movement to trigger downgrades to EB3? They would have clearly known internally that EB3 has depleted inventory and dates would be moving ahead of EB2I.

You have to look at Jan 17, August 17 and July 2018 in that order for the PI to make sense.
April 17, Oct 17, Jan 18, April 18 released PI is inaccurate for EB2 India.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I was looking at the PI at a high level and comparing the last two released inventory. The EB-2I inventory jumped for the months of May and June 2009, even though the USCIS was only accepting FAD for the bulletins released then. These PI numbers already seems fudged, do any of you think that USCIS botched up these numbers further to kinda slow down EB2 movement to trigger downgrades to EB3? They would have clearly known internally that EB3 has depleted inventory and dates would be moving ahead of EB2I.

I would'nt trust the PI for anything. You may have noticed that there are less than 500 EB3I numbers upto 2009 April, which is the current PD. Unless there is a deluge of filings after the release of PI or they fudge the numbers, EB3I looks all set to be unable to utilize the SO fully even in this FY like in past few years.

[Raj0687]

Based on July 2018 inventory these are the numbers for 2009,

April: 649
May: 1,429
June: 1,411
July: 968
August: 801
September: 1,006

As you can see there is a spike in numbers for May and June and then numbers come down dramatically. July and August we were deep in recession and this makes sense

I don't think its because of recession.

That's because of the EB2I people who missed the in boat in 2012 and have PD earlier than July 1st, 2009 has got couple of chance to file AOS, when the FD was first introduced back in 2015 and also in 2016. I think, the surge is just because the people after the July 1st 2009, did not yet get the 2nd chance to file AOS.

So there would be another 500 per month after July 1st, 2009 EB2I applicants waiting to file AOS. I think most of these people could be EB3 to EB2 porters and some of these would have filed AOS using their original EB3 I-140 this year (I personally know few of them who did this) .

[swvidikr]

The porters won’t have an impact till the final dates in Eb3 moves beyond May 2010. I also did not upgrade in 2016 when I had a chance, as I realized for my Feb 2011 date Eb3 was most likely to be faster. I know Eb3 is basically subset of Eb2 skills and people who qualify will definitely downgrade.

Hi Aceman! I am with you. My PD is 10 Feb 2011. Until date i haven't looked into when the PD would become current. But currently, situational reasons while exploring options to get GC or move to Canada, i found from a colleague that EB3 has some hopes. Will I be able to file AOS if date of filing advances to first quarter and beyond of 2011? Or should i just move to Canada and pursue other opportunities ?

Is there some hope for the end of this year ? I refused to port to EB2 when i had the opportunity because i i knew everyone wanted to merge with the trend. I just kept it going...

[NJMavarick]

Stolen.. ha ha.. u seem to be really pissed off at your wait time to get GC. Take it easy. You are not alone.

If you go read your statement again.. u will realize the absurdity of ur choice if words. no applicant has any say in Visa usage.. let alone steal anything.

Moreover most of the guys waiting in EB2 line are porters from EB3. If it is any consolation.. think of this as those guys getting their GCs for their original EB3 line (if they have not ported).

Everyone is trying to get out if this shithole wait. Some are doing EB1C..some are doing porting etc. 99% of people will take any oppurtunity to get their GC faster. Ultimately its DOS / USCIS / Laws of the. country that govern GC allocation. No body else has an iota of control.

So chill brother...

I am not EB3 porter.. but I have sympathized and supported their porting, even though it delays my EB2 DEC 2010 PD. I have looked at EB2 and EB3 as a single group for several years now.... therefore porting / incorrect GC allocation in these 2 categories does not bother me.

The way I see it is that everyone who is stuck in the backlog is going to be an opportunist. If I had a chance to get my GC sooner using EB1, EB2, EB3 OR EBx..I would have done it. The long wait is indeed very frustrating!

[NJMavarick]

Much downgrade demand till May 2010. Also 2009/10 were recession years, so general demand also expected to be low.

Yes, and that is why I am saying down porters are not going to be a factor for FY 19. Once the dates move past May 2010, we are in an un-chartered territory. Visa wastage, I don't think it will happen this FY.

OK! It seems, in the next 4 months we will see the FAD for EB3 reach APRIL 2010 or beyond. The optimist in me tells me that there will be a big jump of around 1 year which will make the FAD move to 2011. Now, this is when the x factor of downgrades will kick in.

However, thinking rationally it will take at least a month (minimum) for the both the companies (if they agree) and the porters to file their downgrade application. Add to that the burden of regular processing (6 months) for 90% of the porters (10% EB2 could already have a prior approved eb3 and might be with the same company). I am expecting some minor processing delays as well. It will take approx 7-8 months before any approvals come in.

In that case, would CO not advance the dates further? What will be the filing date if the FAD moves to 2011?

[AceMan]

I don't think its because of recession.

That's because of the EB2I people who missed the in boat in 2012 and have PD earlier than July 1st, 2009 has got couple of chance to file AOS, when the FD was first introduced back in 2015 and also in 2016. I think, the surge is just because the people after the July 1st 2009, did not yet get the 2nd chance to file AOS.

So there would be another 500 per month after July 1st, 2009 EB2I applicants waiting to file AOS. I think most of these people could be EB3 to EB2 porters and some of these would have filed AOS using their original EB3 I-140 this year (I personally know few of them who did this) .

The original Eb2 filers in 2009 would have mostly done their AOS in 2012 except for a few unlucky people. The total PERMS for 2009 (both EB2 & 3) from Spec's list
(http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India) is 16672. Many from this list could have had a prior date as well and already dropped off.

The inventory for early 2009 reduced by close to 4000 in 2014 when the dates reached May 2009.

I really don't think the number of people waiting to do AOS in both EB2 and 3 is high. I am also considering the fact that EB3 FAD is projected to advance by 3 months till May.

[greenjpr]

I have a PD June 20-2010 [EB2] and still working for the same employer for the past 12 yrs. I contacted my attorney to prepare for Eb3 downgrade. She was telling me that I need to do PERM and then I-140 again. Is this true? After downgrade, will it be possible to go back to EB2 if needed?

[Raj0687]

The original Eb2 filers in 2009 would have mostly done their AOS in 2012 except for a few unlucky people. The total PERMS for 2009 (both EB2 & 3) from Spec's list
(http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India) is 16672. Many from this list could have had a prior date as well and already dropped off.

The inventory for early 2009 reduced by close to 4000 in 2014 when the dates reached May 2009.

I really don't think the number of people waiting to do AOS in both EB2 and 3 is high. I am also considering the fact that EB3 FAD is projected to advance by 3 months till May.

Yes that's PERMs, so should it be multiply by dependents( *2.5) to get the actual demand.

[AceMan]

Yes that's PERMs, so should it be multiply by dependents( *2.5) to get the actual demand.

The list of approved 140's back in April 2018 (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/Count_of_Approved_I-140_I-360_and_I-526_Petitions_as_of_April_20_2018_with_a_Priority_ Date_On_or_After_May_2018.PDF) specifies the dependent demand as 1.0 and 1.1 for EB2 and 3 respectively.
They have used https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2016/table7 as reference.

We can see over the next few bulletins if my theory got any base or not.

[Chilli19]

May, June demand for EB2 is very high. From April to August we have about 5250 people waiting already. You need a horizontal SO of more than 3000 for the last quarter to get to your PD this FY. It is possible, but not very optimistic.

Gurus,
Any estimation on when the EB3 I dates move beyond May 2010? Any possibility to happen that this FY? My PD is May 27th 2010 EB2I and i'm willing to downgrade to file I-485 and have the EAD.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I hope to receive some advise from some knowledgeable folks here. My PD is EB2I 5/5/2010 :) yep missed it by that much. No worries though, it is what it is and there are more important things in life going on! My wife will be eligible for EB1B sometime in Spring 2021 so we are in wait and watch mode whether to downgrade to EB3I if the FAD crosses mine. Does it make sense to port down with just DF for EB3 or wait until FAD crosses over? Is there any advantage like getting early in line by using DF? Are there any drawbacks to using DF in EB3 when the original petition is EB2?

Sorry, that's a lot of questions so thanks in advance for your time! It would be great to collect the answers and do a flow chart so that people can plug in their case and determine the best option to move forward :).

[AceMan]

Gurus,
Any estimation on when the EB3 I dates move beyond May 2010? Any possibility to happen that this FY? My PD is May 27th 2010 EB2I and i'm willing to downgrade to file I-485 and have the EAD.

EB3 I forward movement after April 2010 will most probably happen in the last quarter.

[BigAnt]

EB3 I forward movement after April 2010 will most probably happen in the last quarter.

AceMan - By April 2010 in your above post, you mean 1 Apr 2010 or 30 Apr 2010? My PD is 28 Apr 2010 in EB3-India and I am expecting atleast my filing date would get current in April visa bulletin (not sure though if USCIS respect that or not) . What is your opinion now for the same after Feb 2019 visa bulletin predictions?



Thanks

[GCdreamz]

My understanding and predictions
1. EB3I Date of Filing (DF) was moved till Apr 2010 to coincide with EB2I I485 pending inventory. Maybe they received 3K I485 filings and did not move DF in Feb bulletin.
2. In Early part of Q3 i.e Apr, EB3I Date of Filing will be moved based on anticipated Spillover i.e 3K based on previous years. I estimate 2-3 months movement assuming 1200-1300 new EB3I I485 filings.
3. Till End of Q3 i.e May, EB3I Final Action (FA) will moved to date which can accommodate yearly quota of 3K visas

Below comment in the Bulletin gives me hope that EB3ROW demand is less and we might get more than 6K visas allotted to EB3I in FY19.
**Philippines: Rapid movement to generate demand.**

[AceMan]

AceMan - By April 2010 in your above post, you mean 1 Apr 2010 or 30 Apr 2010? My PD is 28 Apr 2010 in EB3-India and I am expecting atleast my filing date would get current in April visa bulletin (not sure though if USCIS respect that or not) . What is your opinion now for the same after Feb 2019 visa bulletin predictions?



Thanks

I am talking about Final Action Dates. Filing dates, they mentioned will not be respecting from Feb. However the final dates did not move for any category, and USCIS might be accepting it for Feb 2019 also.

Unlike EB2, EB3 is not having enough demand this FY. It has enough signs to move all the way through to 1st May 2010 and all the people who are downgrading already had a prior EB3 petitions.
Will the move to 1st May 2010 happen in the June bulletin or July bulletin? I expect it to stay there for the rest of the year as there is reasonable demand.

[NJMavarick]

I am talking about Final Action Dates. Filing dates, they mentioned will not be respecting from Feb. However the final dates did not move for any category, and USCIS might be accepting it for Feb 2019 also.

Unlike EB2, EB3 is not having enough demand this FY. It has enough signs to move all the way through to 1st May 2010 and all the people who are downgrading already had a prior EB3 petitions.
Will the move to 1st May 2010 happen in the June bulletin or July bulletin? I expect it to stay there for the rest of the year as there is reasonable demand.

Where would the Filing Date land? I was expecting the FAD to progress further because of the spill overs that would be applied.

[AceMan]

Where would the Filing Date land? I was expecting the FAD to progress further because of the spill overs that would be applied.

They don't plan to use filing date anymore for this FY is what I am sensing. If we end up this FY with 1st May 2010 for EB3, I expect them to set the filing date to 1st April 2011 for October 2019. Philippines movement is the key for EB3 I to get beyond the current limit.

[sanjeevtrivedi]

Forget about 2023... you should get your GC by 2020. Only X-factor is the downward porting rate. Which I don't think an issue at-least for an year or two.
Lucky you didn't upgrade but don't curse down graders now, they suffered a lot due to upgrades earlier.

I would like to be positive. However with no clarity on total number between May 2010 to June 2011. It seems little challenging. I am assuming there are around 30K (EB2 and EB3) petitions between May 2010 and June 2011. With dependents it would be around 60K, and with around 10k applications per year, it will be about 6 years. That is not considering the 15K application there are there till May 2010. So very confused with so many different views

[EB22010Dec]

I would like to be positive. However with no clarity on total number between May 2010 to June 2011. It seems little challenging. I am assuming there are around 30K (EB2 and EB3) petitions between May 2010 and June 2011. With dependents it would be around 60K, and with around 10k applications per year, it will be about 6 years. That is not considering the 15K application there are there till May 2010. So very confused with so many different views

I agree with you .. 100%, can one of the guru's please tell us why his assumption is not right ...

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I agree with you .. 100%, can one of the guru's please tell us why his assumption is not right ...

If we have an Immigration deal done in the next week or two, all our 'predictions' will go for toss fellas..


Sen. Lisa Murkowski said a broader immigration deal is “clearly in the mix” as is a broader agreement on federal spending levels.

[sanjeevtrivedi]

If we have an Immigration deal done in the next week or two, all our 'predictions' will go for toss fellas..

That's a pipe dream. It's good to be positive. But nothing has been pas several years. We can be optimistic but face the reality of the situation/mess we are in

[HarepathekaIntezar]

That's a pipe dream. It's good to be positive. But nothing has been pas several years. We can be optimistic but face the reality of the situation/mess we are in

The indications are all pointing to something brewing on the immigration front, the Liar-in-Chief saying some un-intelligible crap about H1B Visa holders, then Sen. Mancin pitching the CIR and now Sen Lisa coming out with her statement..this time it will be totally different from all the long drawn IV advocacy campaigns. A deal will be made and quickly passed before anyone knows what is in the Bill..

[excalibur123]

The list of approved 140's back in April 2018 (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/Count_of_Approved_I-140_I-360_and_I-526_Petitions_as_of_April_20_2018_with_a_Priority_ Date_On_or_After_May_2018.PDF) specifies the dependent demand as 1.0 and 1.1 for EB2 and 3 respectively.
They have used https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2016/table7 as reference.

We can see over the next few bulletins if my theory got any base or not.

Aceman - I was shocked to read these dependent ratios first time. Then I realized what these were. They are for ALL countries.

A typical person from ROW or even other countries has wait of 2-3 years most and has just finished his Masters - files for GC while he is single.

So the overall numbers are skewed.

In my view dependent demand for India are what we normally know - 2.2 to 2.5

[excalibur123]

I would like to be positive. However with no clarity on total number between May 2010 to June 2011. It seems little challenging. I am assuming there are around 30K (EB2 and EB3) petitions between May 2010 and June 2011. With dependents it would be around 60K, and with around 10k applications per year, it will be about 6 years. That is not considering the 15K application there are there till May 2010. So very confused with so many different views

You are right to be apprehensive. One has to look at EB2 wait over last 6-7 years to realize how slow things can get. Barring a change in law or extraordinary spillovers the great CRAWL would continue.

[tendlya]

Guys, wanted to know what you think about EB2 to EB3 downgrade for someone with EB2 priority date in late May 2009 (mine is May 26th 2009). Do you think is it worth it? I am thinking of this as EB2 dates are barely moving while EB3 dates are jumping in months.

[sanjeevtrivedi]

Guys, wanted to know what you think about EB2 to EB3 downgrade for someone with EB2 priority date in late May 2009 (mine is May 26th 2009). Do you think is it worth it? I am thinking of this as EB2 dates are barely moving while EB3 dates are jumping in months.

Not worth it, it might take few more months. Why take chances, who knows what complications come out in downgrade process

[sanjeevtrivedi]

Gurus,
Any estimation on when the EB3 I dates move beyond May 2010? Any possibility to happen that this FY? My PD is May 27th 2010 EB2I and i'm willing to downgrade to file I-485 and have the EAD.

There is a very strong possibility of EB1-3 moving into May 2010 till year (at the minimum Filing dates)

Question is should you downgrade your application. I work for a very large American consulting company and we have between 5k to 10k people in the GC queue.

Our attorneys are completely reluctant to the idea of downgrading post May-2010, leave the cases where people have EAD and between April-09-Apr-10.

We had series of meetings with them and they said unless things get better, its too big of a risk. I know a lot of us think downgrading is the best opinion. frankly even I think so. But they said they feel in the current political scenario, its not recommended to touch change things. They spoke about possibility of rules getting into place for this porting discouraging porting.

[swaugh]

Any way to know how many EB3I folks waiting with PD APR 2009 - DEC 2009?
When the latest pending inventory was published, folks with PD APR 2009 - DEC 2009 in EB3I were not able to submit I-485.
Why do most of the gurus/experts think there are not many people with EB3I Priority Date in 2009?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Why do most of the gurus/experts think there are not many people with EB3I Priority Date in 2009?

Because they would have ported to EB2.

[swaugh]

I don't think that most of them who upgraded to EB2 (with PD in 2009) have EADs and now they can file I-485 using EB3 I-140. Is this scenario under estimated ?

[AceMan]

Aceman - I was shocked to read these dependent ratios first time. Then I realized what these were. They are for ALL countries.

A typical person from ROW or even other countries has wait of 2-3 years most and has just finished his Masters - files for GC while he is single.

So the overall numbers are skewed.

In my view dependent demand for India are what we normally know - 2.2 to 2.5


It can also mean that many of the Indian 140 filers are spouses with their own petition.

[YTeleven]

There is a very strong possibility of EB1-3 moving into May 2010 till year (at the minimum Filing dates)

Question is should you downgrade your application. I work for a very large American consulting company and we have between 5k to 10k people in the GC queue.

Our attorneys are completely reluctant to the idea of downgrading post May-2010, leave the cases where people have EAD and between April-09-Apr-10.

We had series of meetings with them and they said unless things get better, its too big of a risk. I know a lot of us think downgrading is the best opinion. frankly even I think so. But they said they feel in the current political scenario, its not recommended to touch change things. They spoke about possibility of rules getting into place for this porting discouraging porting.

A few employers will be ready to reduce your GC time line from Years to Months by allowing downgrades.
Otherwise it will be a future threat to their business as you will have your own priorities/plans after getting the GC.
Unless you show a threat right now by moving to your old employer who will be ready to file I485 with old I140 (if you have one).
That's about Employer's community behavior.

For Big Lawyers it will be a onetime business to file downgrades but they loose regular future income as these guys gets greened hence they can say every reason to block it.
For small Lawyers they have a huge learning curve in downgrades and fear of RFEs due to current environment.
All in all this downgrades will not happen and hence the percentage factor I fixed is 25% (1 in 4).

It will take at least 2020 to get this settled by that time EB3I dates can swing to 2013 or even further into future.
I still emphasis that the EB3-I queue is a sparsely filled (almost empty) queue for my calculations.

This wait game has become a billion dollar industry now. Every one will resist for downgrades.
Imagine that these EB2India applicants alone can fund the border wall if there is a onetime fee asked for the faster GC.

Statistically, this can't be compared to China downgrades as their applicants size is just 10% of Indian applicants size.

[gcconnect]

I don't think that most of them who upgraded to EB2 (with PD in 2009) have EADs and now they can file I-485 using EB3 I-140. Is this scenario under estimated ?

I am also thinking 70% of the EB3I to EB2I Porters , who does not have EAD will try to go back and file AOS in EB3, because EB2 takes time . This group in 2009 , 2010...will cover all the Quota for couple of years. Where is the chance for movement for EB3I? Did i miss anything because all Gurus expectation is EB3I will move fast because that is empty Queue.

[Nov2010]

I work for a fortune50 company, and the law firm(one of the big ones in the country) agreed to file downgrades.
Atleast there are 5-6 people in my company that I know of(there may be more) are getting ready to file or initiate the process. Most of them have PDs between Aug-2009 and April-2010. All these folks originally filed in EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
They would be filing 140 and 485 in parallel.
Also I heard the attorney was flexible and mentioned that either EB2 or EB3 application can be used down the road for the getting the actual GC ie;for FAD, not sure how that works. What I heard is EB2 job description can always be used to file in EB3, and not the other way round. So no additional PERM filing is required.

[smuggymba]

A few employers will be ready to reduce your GC time line from Years to Months by allowing downgrades.
Otherwise it will be a future threat to their business as you will have your own priorities/plans after getting the GC.
Unless you show a threat right now by moving to your old employer who will be ready to file I485 with old I140 (if you have one).
That's about Employer's community behavior.

For Big Lawyers it will be a onetime business to file downgrades but they loose regular future income as these guys gets greened hence they can say every reason to block it.
For small Lawyers they have a huge learning curve in downgrades and fear of RFEs due to current environment.
All in all this downgrades will not happen and hence the percentage factor I fixed is 25% (1 in 4).

It will take at least 2020 to get this settled by that time EB3I dates can swing to 2013 or even further into future.
I still emphasis that the EB3-I queue is a sparsely filled (almost empty) queue for my calculations.

This wait game has become a billion dollar industry now. Every one will resist for downgrades.
Imagine that these EB2India applicants alone can fund the border wall if there is a onetime fee asked for the faster GC.

Statistically, this can't be compared to China downgrades as their applicants size is just 10% of Indian applicants size.

very well put together. Lawyers are buying vacation homes in Bahamas since you're backlogged. Same with big company. I worked for Deloitte/Fragomen (which I'm guessing the previous poster was referring to) - if you're stuck, it helps them. If you're free. it helps you.

Do what you can to move ahead. I'm March EB2 2010 and I don't have any option to downgrade..so I'll just be waiting.

[bikenlalan]

There will be a small subset of people who missed the boat of filing and do not have EAD. They would be jumping on the first opportunity to file in EB-3. As the gap widens between EB2/3, more and more people will start jumping the bandwagon of downgrading. For the next few months people will play the waiting game to see what is happening, as we start hearing some success stories of downgrade, people who are tired of waiting in EB-2 will begin taking action. This FY, looks like dates should move steadily but should eventually stall in late 2010 to early 2011.
Now EB-2/3 should be looked as a single queue and hope that all the horizontal spillovers are applied to India and not moved to EB-1.

[dev2010]

Hi,
My PD is Oct-2010 EB2 from previous employer. Currently my existing employer has started perm and it's in initial stages (PWD). The perm job desc qualifies for EB2. I am hoping that by the time my perm gets approved (hopefully not audited), I will have a clear idea of EB3 movement beyond May-2010. In that case I can make a decision to file my I-140 in EB3.

Does anyone think there can be a pushback from attorneys in this case for filing I-140 in EB3 although perm being EB2? This is not the downgrade as they don't have to amend I-140 or start a new perm.

Appreciate any feedback.
Thanks,
Dev

[sanjeevtrivedi]

One estimate CO gave last month was it will take 5 years to clear all the cases in EB-2 I until Dec 2010. What would have been his assumptions. As we know there are approx 15K application (until Apr 10). And most likely there would be around 2000 cases per month from May- Dec 2010, which takes overall pending application 15K+16K= 31K application in EB2 I until Dec 2010.

31k without considering dependents in 5 years = 6000 application per year ( with dependents 12000)

What is his Rationale, is he considering that people from EB2 to EB3 will will downgrade. When we try to compare his statement with different data points, it does not make sense

Any one has a better perspective to share?

[NJMavarick]

A few employers will be ready to reduce your GC time line from Years to Months by allowing downgrades.
Otherwise it will be a future threat to their business as you will have your own priorities/plans after getting the GC.
Unless you show a threat right now by moving to your old employer who will be ready to file I485 with old I140 (if you have one).
That's about Employer's community behavior.

For Big Lawyers it will be a onetime business to file downgrades but they loose regular future income as these guys gets greened hence they can say every reason to block it.
For small Lawyers they have a huge learning curve in downgrades and fear of RFEs due to current environment.
All in all this downgrades will not happen and hence the percentage factor I fixed is 25% (1 in 4).

It will take at least 2020 to get this settled by that time EB3I dates can swing to 2013 or even further into future.
I still emphasis that the EB3-I queue is a sparsely filled (almost empty) queue for my calculations.

This wait game has become a billion dollar industry now. Every one will resist for downgrades.
Imagine that these EB2India applicants alone can fund the border wall if there is a onetime fee asked for the faster GC.

Statistically, this can't be compared to China downgrades as their applicants size is just 10% of Indian applicants size.

I am inclined to agree with YTEleven here. I think that there are not many EB2 folks whose PD is before May 2010 and who do not have an EAD. That is the reason we see the Filing Dates as April 2010 and will have the FAD move 3 months in the next few bulletins.

I think we all agree that in this FY, the FAD for EB3 will cross May 2010. Lets assume it does then how soon will people be able to downgrade? I am hearing mixed responses from people who I have spoken to. Some companies have outright refused to downgrade while some companies have agreed to. In that scenario 25% number put by YTEleven makes sense.

We also need to keep in mind that it will take at least 7-8 months for the I-140s to get approved. Do you think CO will be waiting for the approvals or will advance the dates further down? I am betting on EB3 FAD dates to move to 2011. If anyone thinks differently, please do lay it out here.

[swaugh]

I think we all agree that in this FY, the FAD for EB3 will cross May 2010.

I am betting on EB3 FAD dates to move to 2011. If anyone thinks differently, please do lay it out here.

2011 - I disagree, there is no basis to come to this conclusion.
CO says 'Up to 3 months" till May. It is not guaranteed to be 3 months every bulletin.

[NJMavarick]

2011 - I disagree, there is no basis to come to this conclusion.
CO says 'Up to 3 months" till May. It is not guaranteed to be 3 months every bulletin.

The reason I mentioned 2011 is because the approvals from downgrades will take some time to come in. Would you agree? In that case, lets take for hypothetical reason the dates are Jan 2010 in the May or June bulletin. Where do you think will the FAD dates be in the next 4 bulletins keeping in mind that demand has to be generated and what about spill overs? Downgrades will kick in only if its crosses May 2010 and will take 7-8 months to approve.

[vsivarama]

One estimate CO gave last month was it will take 5 years to clear all the cases in EB-2 I until Dec 2010. What would have been his assumptions. As we know there are approx 15K application (until Apr 10). And most likely there would be around 2000 cases per month from May- Dec 2010, which takes overall pending application 15K+16K= 31K application in EB2 I until Dec 2010.

31k without considering dependents in 5 years = 6000 application per year ( with dependents 12000)

What is his Rationale, is he considering that people from EB2 to EB3 will will downgrade. When we try to compare his statement with different data points, it does not make sense

Any one has a better perspective to share?

Sanjeev,

Here are a few mistakes made in the assumptions made above
i) The 15K till May 2010 already include the dependents. So no more additions to the numbers here.
ii) It's the july PI data (15k) and the predictions made by CO were a month or two old. So he probably has more accurate picture of the numbers left compared to everyone in this group.
iii) Going forward the average estimate (on the higher end) could be 1500 applicants per month (including dependents). I believe this because the country was still turning back from a recession and hence believe the number of applicants really ramped up from 2012 and onwards.
iv) I believe he was also factoring in some horizontal SO in his calculations as per the trend he expects to see plus ZERO upgades to EB2. I am not sure he was factoring in the downgrades to EB3.
v) There could be also be some redundancy where (estimating 30%) both the spouses have approved 1-140 (E.g. Myself and my wife)/ multiple applications or maybe some people have moved back to India or migrated to other countries like Canada.

Just my 2 cents to make sense of CO's prediction.

Siva

[AceMan]

One estimate CO gave last month was it will take 5 years to clear all the cases in EB-2 I until Dec 2010. What would have been his assumptions. As we know there are approx 15K application (until Apr 10). And most likely there would be around 2000 cases per month from May- Dec 2010, which takes overall pending application 15K+16K= 31K application in EB2 I until Dec 2010.

31k without considering dependents in 5 years = 6000 application per year ( with dependents 12000)

What is his Rationale, is he considering that people from EB2 to EB3 will will downgrade. When we try to compare his statement with different data points, it does not make sense

Any one has a better perspective to share?

2000 cases per month from May - Dec 2010 is a very high number considering the total perms for 2010 was around 22 K. Just not possible. Also note the fact it was a recession year.

His rationale is simple arithmetic. EB2 I has about 14,000 people waiting for GC till 2010. EB2 I gets 2804 visas a year. 14000/2804 will be 5 years.

[gcvijay]

2000 cases per month from May - Dec 2010 is a very high number considering the total perms for 2010 was around 22 K. Just not possible. Also note the fact it was a recession year.

His rationale is simple arithmetic. EB2 I has about 14,000 people waiting for GC till 2010. EB2 I gets 2804 visas a year. 14000/2804 will be 5 years.

Do you know why USCIS is not accepting the Filing date nor saying follow FAD's for employment based GC's?

[gcconnect]

If it takes 5 years to clear EB2I up to 2010, people go to any extent for downgrade . if it started from PERM also with ported date, it takes less time. so EB3 may move faster for some time but with high volume of EB2I to EB3I porting, possibility of dates may go back.

[AceMan]

Do you know why USCIS is not accepting the Filing date nor saying follow FAD's for employment based GC's?

Both CO and USCIS notified that they may not be respecting the filing date from Feb bulletin. It appears they have enough data to play with for this FY already.

[delguy]

I work for a fortune50 company, and the law firm(one of the big ones in the country) agreed to file downgrades.
Atleast there are 5-6 people in my company that I know of(there may be more) are getting ready to file or initiate the process. Most of them have PDs between Aug-2009 and April-2010. All these folks originally filed in EB3 and later upgraded to EB2.
They would be filing 140 and 485 in parallel.
Also I heard the attorney was flexible and mentioned that either EB2 or EB3 application can be used down the road for the getting the actual GC ie;for FAD, not sure how that works. What I heard is EB2 job description can always be used to file in EB3, and not the other way round. So no additional PERM filing is required.

Sounds like the reply I got from my law firm that starts with F....

[gcvijay]

Both CO and USCIS notified that they may not be respecting the filing date from Feb bulletin. It appears they have enough data to play with for this FY already.

In that case what is delaying USCIS to say we are not respecting FD follow FAD's?

[bikenlalan]

In that case what is delaying USCIS to say we are not respecting FD follow FAD's?

I do not think there is a delay. As per USCIS, "We anticipate designating one of the two charts each month and linking to the relevant chart below within one week of DOS’ publication of the Visa Bulletin."

[gcvijay]

Ok. I guess they will be updating by end of Tomorrow as one week from Visa bulletin is tomorrow?

[bikenlalan]

Ok. I guess they will be updating by end of Tomorrow as one week from Visa bulletin is tomorrow?

By EOB Friday you should know. VB was released on 1/11.

[iatiam]

I am inclined to agree with YTEleven here. I think that there are not many EB2 folks whose PD is before May 2010 and who do not have an EAD. That is the reason we see the Filing Dates as April 2010 and will have the FAD move 3 months in the next few bulletins.

I think we all agree that in this FY, the FAD for EB3 will cross May 2010. Lets assume it does then how soon will people be able to downgrade? I am hearing mixed responses from people who I have spoken to. Some companies have outright refused to downgrade while some companies have agreed to. In that scenario 25% number put by YTEleven makes sense.

We also need to keep in mind that it will take at least 7-8 months for the I-140s to get approved. Do you think CO will be waiting for the approvals or will advance the dates further down? I am betting on EB3 FAD dates to move to 2011. If anyone thinks differently, please do lay it out here.

OR

1. The FAD for EB3 has never been ahead of EB2 until the next month's bulletin
2. It takes time to get I-140 approved

[iatiam]

I am also thinking 70% of the EB3I to EB2I Porters , who does not have EAD will try to go back and file AOS in EB3, because EB2 takes time . This group in 2009 , 2010...will cover all the Quota for couple of years. Where is the chance for movement for EB3I? Did i miss anything because all Gurus expectation is EB3I will move fast because that is empty Queue.

This has been my case as well and I shared my experience. I don't know what people in the forum do for a living, but I work in a non-IT field where attorneys have generally been good. The exceptions can be attributed to incompetency than evil. I think the narrative that employers and attorneys are pure evil is propagated by the organization that shall not be named and people somehow believe it

[excalibur123]

Any way to know how many EB3I folks waiting with PD APR 2009 - DEC 2009?
When the latest pending inventory was published, folks with PD APR 2009 - DEC 2009 in EB3I were not able to submit I-485.
Why do most of the gurus/experts think there are not many people with EB3I Priority Date in 2009?

I did back of the envelope calculations a while back and found there would be about 5K original EB3Is for this period (including dependents).

But how many of those ported or not, and how many could downport after porting, is not clear.

[swaugh]

Excalibur123 - thanks for your response.

Just curious how you got these numbers as EB3I folks in this period could not have filed for I-485 until recently.

[texas_]

I did back of the envelope calculations a while back and found there would be about 5K original EB3Is for this period (including dependents).

But how many of those ported or not, and how many could downport after porting, is not clear.

With FAD hit 2009 multiple times in the past for EB2I till July 2009 I guess. There would be very few cases if any didn't make it to 485 stage. not sure how many are waiting to file 485 between August 2009 and 30 April 2010 for EB2/3 I however.
I am sure with some forward movement in coming months for both EB2/3 CIS is still in gathering demand like 700 to 800 Visas per quarter. CIS would move FAD/FD both for a couple of months starting July or August 2019 Bulletins and stalled there for Sept 2019

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Do you know why USCIS is not accepting the Filing date nor saying follow FAD's for employment based GC's?

They usually take a honey moon period after VB is released and only then update. It should be coming any time now.

[excalibur123]

Excalibur123 - thanks for your response.

Just curious how you got these numbers as EB3I folks in this period could not have filed for I-485 until recently.

You can estimate that by looking at EB2 Pending Inventory data of Jan 2009 - Apr 2009 which is exclusively made of EB3 porters. Then you assume what percentage of overall EB3 they could be given how much time & motivaton they had to port from last time when dates moved in 2012. Reverse calculate the overall numbers. Extrapolate that to overall year taking into account it was a recession year. Then account for demand destruction. Finally cross check your numbers by verifying against very old PIs and their ratios to PERMs. Apply those ratios to 2009 PERM data and use that to cross check.

Of course it would be simpler if they had correct PIs.

[Ind2009]

They usually take a honey moon period after VB is released and only then update. It should be coming any time now.

USCIS has finally updated the Adjustment of status filing charts from Visa Bulletin for next month.

Next Month's Adjustment of Status Filing Charts

For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for February 2019.

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Final Action Dates chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for February 2019.

[Ind2009]

So anyone in EB3-I having a PD between 22 Apr 2009 and 31st March 2010 have another 2 weeks to file I-485 if you have not yet done it.
The next opportunity for filing dates could be around Oct 2019, if they make it available.

[ferric]

Does the fact that they’re not accepting filing dates mean they have enough built up inventory till Apr 2010 in EB3?

[Ind2009]

Does the fact that theyÂ’re not accepting filing dates mean they have enough built up inventory till Apr 2010 in EB3?


The idea of filing dates is not to build inventory till a specific date (in this case 1st April 2010, which translates to 31 March 2010). On the other hand it is to build up up enough inventory and try not to waste any visa numbers available for the fiscal year which ends on Sep 30 each year.

Folks in EB2 I queue who have their PD till May 21st 2009 (most recent filing date in EB2 I) have a 90 % chance of being greened in the current fiscal year as they don't need to go through interview.

In contrast, this mandatory interview for adjustment of status will turn out to be the main challenge for the EB3 I category who have filed now and would become current (FAD) over the next few months. With the waiting time at most field offices across the country, for employment based categories, anywhere between 8 and 21 months, these folks might not be greened this fiscal year. If they spillover the Visa numbers to other categories that don't need to be interviewed then EB2 India can benefit. Hopefully DOS and USCIS can do some justice and not waste the available VISA numbers.

[EB2/eb3]

The idea of filing dates is not to build inventory till a specific date (in this case 1st April 2010, which translates to 31 March 2010). On the other hand it is to build up up enough inventory and try not to waste any visa numbers available for the fiscal year which ends on Sep 30 each year.

Folks in EB2 I queue who have their PD till May 21st 2009 (most recent filing date in EB2 I) have a 90 % chance of being greened in the current fiscal year as they don't need to go through interview.

In contrast, this mandatory interview for adjustment of status will turn out to be the main challenge for the EB3 I category who have filed now and would become current (FAD) over the next few months. With the waiting time at most field offices across the country, for employment based categories, anywhere between 8 and 21 months, these folks might not be greened this fiscal year. If they spillover the Visa numbers to other categories that don't need to be interviewed then EB2 India can benefit. Hopefully DOS and USCIS can do some justice and not waste the available VISA numbers.
With the govt shutdown, fbi Background checks are getting delayed, can we expect SO to eb2i because of this? Eb2i cases filed in 2012/2014 are pre-adjudicated and don’t need background checks, right?

[Ind2009]

With the govt shutdown, fbi Background checks are getting delayed, can we expect SO to eb2i because of this? Eb2i cases filed in 2012/2014 are pre-adjudicated and don’t need background checks, right?

I am not aware of the normal processing times for FBI background checks, but I know a friend of mine who did his finger printing on 8th of this month got a confirmation on Jan 10th that his Finger print review was in progress and another confirmation yesterday (Jan 17th) As of January 17, 2019, we completed our review of your fingerprints and are working on your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Receipt Number MSCxxxxxxxxxx, at our National Benefits Center location. We will let you know if we make a decision or need anything from you.
We will need to check with other folks here who have already completed their bio metrics if this time line is normal or not.

I am also not aware of the rules regarding background check, if already complete. I do know that Mandatory in-person interviews are only mandatory for I-485 cases filed after Mar 06, 2017 and this policy came into effect as of Oct 2, 2017. USCIS can however ask for in-person interviews for cases filed before this date, if they believe they have a reason for additional scrutiny, which cannot be done using an RFE.

[EB2/eb3]

[QUOTE=Ind2009;61418]I am not aware of the normal processing times for FBI background checks, but I know a friend of mine who did his finger printing on 8th of this month got a confirmation on Jan 10th that his Finger print review was in progress and another confirmation yesterday (Jan 17th) As of January 17, 2019, we completed our review of your fingerprints and are working on your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Receipt Number MSCxxxxxxxxxx, at our National Benefits Center location. We will let you know if we make a decision or need anything from you.
We will need to check with other folks here who have already completed their bio metrics if this time line is normal ]
I don’t think finger print review is same as background checks.

[Ind2009]

I don’t think finger print review is same as background checks.


Finger Print review is part of background check.
In addition they have a few more categories.
I got the information from this USCIS page

https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HTML/PolicyManual-Volume12-PartB-Chapter2.html

[h1bh1bh1b]

I am not aware of the normal processing times for FBI background checks, but I know a friend of mine who did his finger printing on 8th of this month got a confirmation on Jan 10th that his Finger print review was in progress and another confirmation yesterday (Jan 17th) As of January 17, 2019, we completed our review of your fingerprints and are working on your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Receipt Number MSCxxxxxxxxxx, at our National Benefits Center location. We will let you know if we make a decision or need anything from you.
We will need to check with other folks here who have already completed their bio metrics if this time line is normal or not.

I am also not aware of the rules regarding background check, if already complete. I do know that Mandatory in-person interviews are only mandatory for I-485 cases filed after Mar 06, 2017 and this policy came into effect as of Oct 2, 2017. USCIS can however ask for in-person interviews for cases filed before this date, if they believe they have a reason for additional scrutiny, which cannot be done using an RFE.

NBC is slow in processing EAD. People who applied in July and august 2018, just started to receive theirs. Your friend will get EAD around June or July

[Ind2009]

NBC is slow in processing EAD. People who applied in July and august 2018, just started to receive theirs. Your friend will get EAD around June or July

Thank you and I Agree with you. We are aware that EAD (i-765) is taking 6 - 8 months at NBC.
My answer was specific to the question on delay in FBI background checks. I am not aware of the normal processing time for background checks. My finger printing was also done on Tuesday and I don't see any updates in the USCIS check case status. Still seeing Fingerprint Fee was received.

[EB2/eb3]

Finger Print review is part of background check.
In addition they have a few more categories.
I got the information from this USCIS page

https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HTML/PolicyManual-Volume12-PartB-Chapter2.html
I’m not sure but from what I’ve seen in other forums, FP review is different to name check process(Background check)

[h1bh1bh1b]

I’m not sure but from what I’ve seen in other forums, FP review is different to name check process(Background check)

//Once an ASC collects an applicant’s biometrics, USCIS submits the records to the FBI for a full criminal background check. [7] The response from the FBI that a full criminal background check has been completed includes confirmation that://

Not sure if FBI is affected by shutdown and understaffed.

[infotalk]

The idea of filing dates is not to build inventory till a specific date (in this case 1st April 2010, which translates to 31 March 2010). On the other hand it is to build up up enough inventory and try not to waste any visa numbers available for the fiscal year which ends on Sep 30 each year.

Folks in EB2 I queue who have their PD till May 21st 2009 (most recent filing date in EB2 I) have a 90 % chance of being greened in the current fiscal year as they don't need to go through interview.

In contrast, this mandatory interview for adjustment of status will turn out to be the main challenge for the EB3 I category who have filed now and would become current (FAD) over the next few months. With the waiting time at most field offices across the country, for employment based categories, anywhere between 8 and 21 months, these folks might not be greened this fiscal year. If they spillover the Visa numbers to other categories that don't need to be interviewed then EB2 India can benefit. Hopefully DOS and USCIS can do some justice and not waste the available VISA numbers.

Where do you get this date of 21st May 2009 from. I am EB2, May 30 2009. Does that mean I have to go through an interview for GC ?

[Ind2009]

Where do you get this date of 21st May 2009 from. I am EB2, May 30 2009. Does that mean I have to go through an interview for GC ?

The dates that you see in the Visa bulletin each month are cut off dates, and cannot be used as current. You should always do a minus one. In case of EB2 I the most recent filing date has been 22nd May 2009. so anyone having priority dates as of 21st May are eligible to file adjustment of status till the end of this month and that is the date upto which CO was expecting the FAD to move by end of this fiscal year. This information is based on the following input from CO, back in September of 2018.

https://www.murthy.com/2018/09/21/october-2018-visa-bulletin-check-in-unwelcome-news-for-eb1-india-and-china/
Cutoff Dates in DF Chart to Predict Future Movement
One additional insight provided by Mr. Oppenheim is how he determines what date to list on the DF chart, which typically has more favorable cutoff dates than the FA chart. The dates Mr. Oppenheim sets in the DF chart are where he expects that category’s FA cutoff date to be within the next 8-to-12 months.

If you had applied for adjustment of status before Mar 6th 2017, then there is no mandatory in-person interview for you. Also given that your PD is May 30 2009, in EB2 I, there is also a good chance that you might get your number called before end of this fiscal year.

[ferric]

Can anyone comment on whether the ending of the EB-5 program will add spillover to EB1, then EB2?

[Nov2010]

Anyone can provide insight into how the current shutdown would impact the SO and FAD / DF movement? Let's say if this continues for another 30 days.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Any advice on what to do for EB2I PD of May 10, 2010? Just hang tight until FAD reaches that or do all the shenanigans of down porting when the EB3 Filing Date crosses that? No issues with the job as such and going on year 12 now so stability is not a concern. Another couple of years and my wife can apply in EB1A or B. Thanks!

[shekhar_kuruk]

Any advice on what to do for EB2I PD of May 10, 2010? Just hang tight until FAD reaches that or do all the shenanigans of down porting when the EB3 Filing Date crosses that? No issues with the job as such and going on year 12 now so stability is not a concern. Another couple of years and my wife can apply in EB1A or B. Thanks!

My 2 cents, start the downgrading process NOW. If you do, you may be greened by the end of the year. Good luck.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

My 2 cents, start the downgrading process NOW. If you do, you may be greened by the end of the year. Good luck.

Thank you for the input, Shekhar. Is it possible to apply for concurrent I-140/I-485 in EB3 if either the FD or FAD crosses my PD, or do I have to do labor certification first and then file I-140/I-485? There are so many threads littered all over with varying opinions so not really sure. I have an appointment with my attorney later this week and get her input which is what I usually end up following. Not too hung up over the whole green card as such and rather prefer renewing my H1 every 3 yrs as it barely takes a week but getting old now and it's more than 18 yrs since I moved here so thinking it's time to look seriously at options :-).

[shekhar_kuruk]

Thank you for the input, Shekhar. Is it possible to apply for concurrent I-140/I-485 in EB3 if either the FD or FAD crosses my PD, or do I have to do labor certification first and then file I-140/I-485? There are so many threads littered all over with varying opinions so not really sure. I have an appointment with my attorney later this week and get her input which is what I usually end up following. Not too hung up over the whole green card as such and rather prefer renewing my H1 every 3 yrs as it barely takes a week but getting old now and it's more than 18 yrs since I moved here so thinking it's time to look seriously at options :-).

I think if you are still with the same company which filed your perm & I-140, all you need is tell them to file new I-140 in EB3 and I think you can also do premium processing on the I-140. So in short talk to your attorney and I think you could be set pretty soon to file I-485 in a couple of months.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I think if you are still with the same company which filed your perm & I-140, all you need is tell them to file new I-140 in EB3 and I think you can also do premium processing on the I-140. So in short talk to your attorney and I think you could be set pretty soon to file I-485 in a couple of months.

Thanks for the info! From what I have read, I-140 cannot be filed in premium and only in regular, since the labor certification is not a new one. According to one source (Anil Gupta), one can apply for the EB3 I-140 downgrade in premium if it is with the same company and applied with the same Service Center. That's a new one and I have not had a chance to get any corroborating sources for.

After talking to my attorney, I will post some feedback from her for everyone's benefit as she is a damn good attorney/personal friend and always looks out for me :-). For now, it looks like I should just wait for EB3 FAD to cross my PD and if it does, apply I-140/I-485 concurrently.

[gcconnect]

Thank you for the input, Shekhar. Is it possible to apply for concurrent I-140/I-485 in EB3 if either the FD or FAD crosses my PD, or do I have to do labor certification first and then file I-140/I-485? There are so many threads littered all over with varying opinions so not really sure. I have an appointment with my attorney later this week and get her input which is what I usually end up following. Not too hung up over the whole green card as such and rather prefer renewing my H1 every 3 yrs as it barely takes a week but getting old now and it's more than 18 yrs since I moved here so thinking it's time to look seriously at options :-).

This may help you
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-have-your-cake-eb-2-mechanics-downgrading-i-140-approval-webber/

[AceMan]

Thank you for the input, Shekhar. Is it possible to apply for concurrent I-140/I-485 in EB3 if either the FD or FAD crosses my PD, or do I have to do labor certification first and then file I-140/I-485? There are so many threads littered all over with varying opinions so not really sure. I have an appointment with my attorney later this week and get her input which is what I usually end up following. Not too hung up over the whole green card as such and rather prefer renewing my H1 every 3 yrs as it barely takes a week but getting old now and it's more than 18 yrs since I moved here so thinking it's time to look seriously at options :-).

Your dates are out of range for both Eb2 and 3 now. I don’t think filing dates are going to be accepted for this FY. Your best bet would be with the Eb3 movements over the next 6 months, prepare the ground work for an Eb3 downgrade, and most probably your dates will be accepted for filing from October 19(Fy 20). If your dates are current then apply concurrently for 140 and 485 premium in October. I know premium is not accepted for 140 without original perm, but there has been people reporting otherwise.

Filing for 140 downgrade without being current, is really a bad idea.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Your dates are out of range for both Eb2 and 3 now. I don’t think filing dates are going to be accepted for this FY. Your best bet would be with the Eb3 movements over the next 6 months, prepare the ground work for an Eb3 downgrade, and most probably your dates will be accepted for filing from October 19(Fy 20). If your dates are current then apply concurrently for 140 and 485 premium in October. I know premium is not accepted for 140 without original perm, but there has been people reporting otherwise.

Filing for 140 downgrade without being current, is really a bad idea.

Sound advice. Thank you, AceMan!

[adisaraf]

Hi Gurus,

Any chances of seeing EB2-I FAD cross into July 2009 this fiscal year? Based on latest VB no real movement for EB2-I till May. My PD is June 25th 2009. I am a porter from EB-3 to EB-2 and I was lucky enough to get EAD/AP during 2015 fiasco. At the time my I-485 was filed in EB2-I category using my EB-3 PD in order to get EAD and AP. But now I am considering downgrading to EB-3. I have been with same employer for both of my petitions (EB-3 and EB-2). My attorney said they would need to fully amend the I-140 petition to downgrade. Thoughts?

[sanjeevtrivedi]

Thank you for the input, Shekhar. Is it possible to apply for concurrent I-140/I-485 in EB3 if either the FD or FAD crosses my PD, or do I have to do labor certification first and then file I-140/I-485? There are so many threads littered all over with varying opinions so not really sure. I have an appointment with my attorney later this week and get her input which is what I usually end up following. Not too hung up over the whole green card as such and rather prefer renewing my H1 every 3 yrs as it barely takes a week but getting old now and it's more than 18 yrs since I moved here so thinking it's time to look seriously at options :-).

Out of curiosity, how are you 18 years on H1B? Even if you filed your I-140 in 6th year. So still will be 12 years in waiting, which would translate 2007 that too EB2, which was current multiple times in past :-)

[abcx13]

Filing for 140 downgrade without being current, is really a bad idea.Why? What is the harm if with the same company using the same PERM? Then you can file I485 using either EB2 or EB3 depending on whichever category becomes available first, no?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Out of curiosity, how are you 18 years on H1B? Even if you filed your I-140 in 6th year. So still will be 12 years in waiting, which would translate 2007 that too EB2, which was current multiple times in past :-)

Good question. Sometimes logic cannot comprehend or contradict ground realities.

[mcmilers]

Out of curiosity, how are you 18 years on H1B? Even if you filed your I-140 in 6th year. So still will be 12 years in waiting, which would translate 2007 that too EB2, which was current multiple times in past :-)
I am going on 18 years in this country and still waiting. Moved here in 2001 on F1, got H1 in Dec 2004 and EB-2 Priority date is Feb 2010. So yes it is possible.

Some people are just "Lucky" :)

[bloddy1]

Check-in/CO updates. And not sure what to make of it because its the same conversations this group continues to have and without any numbers now or at a later time, hard to gauge how sensitive is the EB3 I- FAD to SOFAD vis-a-vis downgrade? We all know its sensitive and Q/Spec/Ace have been saying all along to be cautious on downgrade, especially with the Final Action anticipated movement. There is a lot to play out, especially when EB3I-FAD moves significantly ahead (3 months+) of EB2I-FAD. Application dates/inventory build up does not seem to be a cause of concern or if its even worth discussing.

"With this update, Mr. Oppenheim explains a bit about the movement in the employment-based cases for India and China.

EB3 India Cutoff Date Passes EB2 India
Mr. Oppenheim explains that the main reason India’s cutoff date in the employment-based, third preference (EB3) category has passed that of its counterpart in the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category is that there has not been a great demand for EB3 from most other countries of chargeability. This is allowing more of the visa numbers to spillover to EB3 India.

This transition no doubt will result in an increase in the number of EB2-to-EB3 “downgrade” cases from Indian-born applicants. If the increase is significant, this eventually could lead to EB2 India once again having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 India.

EB2 China to Remain Ahead of EB3 China, For Now
For many months, it was China, not India, that was experiencing the issue of EB2-to-EB3 downgrade cases. Now, however, EB2 China has returned to having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 China. Mr. Oppenheim expects this will not change in the near future. To the contrary, movement in the EB2 China category is expected to outpace that of EB3 China for at least the next several months."

[AceMan]

Why? What is the harm if with the same company using the same PERM? Then you can file I485 using either EB2 or EB3 depending on whichever category becomes available first, no?

EB2 is exceptional, Eb3 is skilled. When you downgrade to EB3 on the same PERM used for EB2, you are notifying USCIS that PERM is last being used for a skilled position.
You are killing your EB2 petition by filing for EB3 - 140 when dates are not even current. That would be the harm you are doing to yourself.

[AceMan]

Check-in/CO updates. And not sure what to make of it because its the same conversations this group continues to have and without any numbers now or at a later time, hard to gauge how sensitive is the EB3 I- FAD to SOFAD vis-a-vis downgrade? We all know its sensitive and Q/Spec/Ace have been saying all along to be cautious on downgrade, especially with the Final Action anticipated movement. There is a lot to play out, especially when EB3I-FAD moves significantly ahead (3 months+) of EB2I-FAD. Application dates/inventory build up does not seem to be a cause of concern or if its even worth discussing.

"With this update, Mr. Oppenheim explains a bit about the movement in the employment-based cases for India and China.

EB3 India Cutoff Date Passes EB2 India
Mr. Oppenheim explains that the main reason India’s cutoff date in the employment-based, third preference (EB3) category has passed that of its counterpart in the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category is that there has not been a great demand for EB3 from most other countries of chargeability. This is allowing more of the visa numbers to spillover to EB3 India.

This transition no doubt will result in an increase in the number of EB2-to-EB3 “downgrade” cases from Indian-born applicants. If the increase is significant, this eventually could lead to EB2 India once again having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 India.

EB2 China to Remain Ahead of EB3 China, For Now
For many months, it was China, not India, that was experiencing the issue of EB2-to-EB3 downgrade cases. Now, however, EB2 China has returned to having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 China. Mr. Oppenheim expects this will not change in the near future. To the contrary, movement in the EB2 China category is expected to outpace that of EB3 China for at least the next several months."





About 2 years back when EB3-ROW was almost current, I was expecting more and more ROW to utilize EB3 route and easing EB2 and EB1 for ROW. This did not materialize most probably due to Trump effect during this time. Eb2-3 downgrade is not going to be a factor for this FY. This will start slowing up EB3 I only after about 3 months after Eb3 dates (filing or final whichever USCIS accepts). In the mean time if Philippines is current on Eb3, the downgrade demand would still be offset by much.
I am expecting Eb3 I to end this FY with a 1st May 2010. In the mean time, if the demand is very low, I am not discounting the possibility of CO might throw in a 9-12 month forward movement in July bulletin.

[EB32010]

About 2 years back when EB3-ROW was almost current, I was expecting more and more ROW to utilize EB3 route and easing EB2 and EB1 for ROW. This did not materialize most probably due to Trump effect during this time. Eb2-3 downgrade is not going to be a factor for this FY. This will start slowing up EB3 I only after about 3 months after Eb3 dates (filing or final whichever USCIS accepts). In the mean time if Philippines is current on Eb3, the downgrade demand would still be offset by much.
I am expecting Eb3 I to end this FY with a 1st May 2010. In the mean time, if the demand is very low, I am not discounting the possibility of CO might throw in a 9-12 month forward movement in July bulletin.
Even if CO moves 9 months in May, it won’t help this FY as there is very little time to get it approved for this FY

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I am going on 18 years in this country and still waiting. Moved here in 2001 on F1, got H1 in Dec 2004 and EB-2 Priority date is Feb 2010. So yes it is possible.

Some people are just "Lucky" :)

True that! Almost the same situation with me - moved here in Aug 2001 with a childhood wish to visit the Twin Towers during Winter Break :-(, moved to H1 in 2005 and been on that ever since after getting PD of May 2010. But hey I met a girl, married her, have two beautiful kiddos, made a lot of friends and money, so really nothing to complain. Honestly delayed applying for green card because we wanted to experience living in other countries and checked out/lived for a few weeks to few months over the years in Canada, UK, Australia, Chile, Singapore and decided nope I love the US more than anywhere else so here I am :-).

[bloddy1]

Even if CO moves 9 months in May, it wonÂ’t help this FY as there is very little time to get it approved for this FY

9 Months by May 19 is the best case interpretation i.e., EB3 at Jan 1 2010, some understood that as 3 months Total i.e., Aug 15 2009. Even Jan 1 2010 is what you are saying is a stretch to fulfill FY19 quota but there are 14K potential EB2 demand ready, adjudicated and can consume the supply.

EB3K+whatever SOFAD, total of 5K
EB2 with its 3K+1K=4K
-------------------------
Total: 9-10K

FY19, Lets say 5K downgrades do transpire, so we are at Jan1 2010 for EB3 and Sep/Oct 2009 for EB2 by end of FY'19.

FY20, If we get same SOFAD EB3 stays or moves by a month and leveling continues until end of FY20 with another 9-10K and end of FY20 both Eb2/3 are at Jan/Mar2010, respectively.

So in anticipation on FY 21, inventory buildup - Final Action for EB2/3 would be at Feb2010/June 2010 by June-Sep 2020. Since Application Filing Date is about 200 days ahead we would see Application Filing date hit June 2010 barrier not until Oct-Dec 2019 i.e., not until FY 2020 is available.

[EB32010]

9 Months by May 19 is the best case interpretation i.e., EB3 at Jan 1 2010, some understood that as 3 months Total i.e., Aug 15 2009. Even Jan 1 2010 is what you are saying is a stretch to fulfill FY19 quota but there are 14K potential EB2 demand ready, adjudicated and can consume the supply.

EB3K+whatever SOFAD, total of 5K
EB2 with its 3K+1K=4K
-------------------------
Total: 9-10K

FY19, Lets say 5K downgrades do transpire, so we are at Jan1 2010 for EB3 and Sep/Oct 2009 for EB2 by end of FY'19.

FY20, If we get same SOFAD EB3 stays or moves by a month and leveling continues until end of FY20 with another 9-10K and end of FY20 both Eb2/3 are at Jan/Mar2010, respectively.

So in anticipation on FY 21, inventory buildup - Final Action for EB2/3 would be at Feb2010/June 2010 by June-Sep 2020. Since Application Filing Date is about 200 days ahead we would see Application Filing date hit June 2010 barrier not until Oct-Dec 2019 i.e., not until FY 2020 is available.

Main point you are missing here SO will be applied only in July. And CO already mentioned that EB3 have low demand. So I expect a big push for EB3 FAD in July. How much remain to be seen

[AceMan]

9 Months by May 19 is the best case interpretation i.e., EB3 at Jan 1 2010, some understood that as 3 months Total i.e., Aug 15 2009. Even Jan 1 2010 is what you are saying is a stretch to fulfill FY19 quota but there are 14K potential EB2 demand ready, adjudicated and can consume the supply.

EB3K+whatever SOFAD, total of 5K
EB2 with its 3K+1K=4K
-------------------------
Total: 9-10K

FY19, Lets say 5K downgrades do transpire, so we are at Jan1 2010 for EB3 and Sep/Oct 2009 for EB2 by end of FY'19.

FY20, If we get same SOFAD EB3 stays or moves by a month and leveling continues until end of FY20 with another 9-10K and end of FY20 both Eb2/3 are at Jan/Mar2010, respectively.

So in anticipation on FY 21, inventory buildup - Final Action for EB2/3 would be at Feb2010/June 2010 by June-Sep 2020. Since Application Filing Date is about 200 days ahead we would see Application Filing date hit June 2010 barrier not until Oct-Dec 2019 i.e., not until FY 2020 is available.

When we look at the PERMS for 2009 and 2010 (recession years) the numbers are not really scary. Also we have to factor in the high number of H1's from 1999-2003 would have been mostly cleared by 2008. EB2 2009 already had cleared more than 4000 filers till May 2009. Almost every single number in EB2 inventory till May would be an EB3 upgrader. Also the people who are downgrading now to EB3 from EB2 already had a prior EB3 petition. Almost all the original EB2 filers till 1st May 2010, would have done AOS except for a few unlucky people.

The 5K downgrades for FY 19 is too far fetched in my opinion. I am repeating, downgraders will not have an impact on EB3 queue for FY 19. In fact it will start impacting only about 3 months after EB3 I priority dates move beyond May 2010.

EB3 I filing dates will move at least till April 2011 at the start of FY 2020 is my expectation. That means, during the first quarter of FY 2020, if we have enough demand for true Eb2 downgraders, then EB3 final dates may move forward slowly from Feb/March 2020 or if the demand is high, retrogression might happen.

[excalibur123]

True that! Almost the same situation with me - moved here in Aug 2001 with a childhood wish to visit the Twin Towers during Winter Break :-(, moved to H1 in 2005 and been on that ever since after getting PD of May 2010. But hey I met a girl, married her, have two beautiful kiddos, made a lot of friends and money, so really nothing to complain. Honestly delayed applying for green card because we wanted to experience living in other countries and checked out/lived for a few weeks to few months over the years in Canada, UK, Australia, Chile, Singapore and decided nope I love the US more than anywhere else so here I am :-).

You missed out on mainland Europe ! :)

Also Chile - wow, what was that like ?

[EB32010]

When we look at the PERMS for 2009 and 2010 (recession years) the numbers are not really scary. Also we have to factor in the high number of H1's from 1999-2003 would have been mostly cleared by 2008. EB2 2009 already had cleared more than 4000 filers till May 2009. Almost every single number in EB2 inventory till May would be an EB3 upgrader. Also the people who are downgrading now to EB3 from EB2 already had a prior EB3 petition. Almost all the original EB2 filers till 1st May 2010, would have done AOS except for a few unlucky people.

The 5K downgrades for FY 19 is too far fetched in my opinion. I am repeating, downgraders will not have an impact on EB3 queue for FY 19. In fact it will start impacting only about 3 months after EB3 I priority dates move beyond May 2010.

EB3 I filing dates will move at least till April 2011 at the start of FY 2020 is my expectation. That means, during the first quarter of FY 2020, if we have enough demand for true Eb2 downgraders, then EB3 final dates may move forward slowly from Feb/March 2020 or if the demand is high, retrogression might happen.

Thank you Aceman. Can you please clarify why downgraders will not have an impact on FY 2019?

[imdeng]

I am going on 18 years in this country and still waiting. Moved here in 2001 on F1, got H1 in Dec 2004 and EB-2 Priority date is Feb 2010. So yes it is possible.

Some people are just "Lucky" :)

Wonder who among us has had the longest US tenure without GC. I am a June 2003 arrival and doesn't seem like that I am even in the running.

[AceMan]

Thank you Aceman. Can you please clarify why downgraders will not have an impact on FY 2019?


Simple reason, we are in the 2nd quarter of FY 2019 and EB3 dates are still behind 1st May 2009, which was last reached in 2009 for EB2. The filing dates moved only till April 2010, all the original EB2 filers till May 2010 would have got their EAD back in 2012 barring some unlucky few. USCIS not expected to respect filing dates anymore this FY.
The absolute best case , if the demand is low for July bulletin, they will open the filing dates again for July and it will take 3 months for the down porters to make an impact, which would be October 2019 (FY 2020) at the very earliest).
If the dates opened up in October 19 as I am hoping, then we will see the impacts from 2nd quarter of FY 20.

[EB2/eb3]

Aug' 1999.
Wow! I thought mine was the longest, June 2002..

[newyorker123]

I heard that people who applied in 2005-2006 got GC in 1-2 years. Not confirmed though. And here we are!

[Nov2010]

Aug' 00.
Was out of country for few years in between.

[iatiam]

Aug' 1999.

Jesus! That's two decades ago and Google was a startup looking for funding.

[zenmaster]

Wow ! 20 yrs ! thats a long long wait.
I was feeling low even with EB2 May 2009 date....
every year it feels like this would be the year to get GC...
the wait continues... guess it would be a 2020 dream for me :(

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

You missed out on mainland Europe ! :)

Also Chile - wow, what was that like ?

Dude, Chile is the bomb! Most prosperous country in South America (per capita GDP of course, Brazil is huge in net GDP), great food, great people, advanced and stable government/economy, awesome beaches, natural beauty... I can keep going on. Definitely worth a vacation visit if you can do it. We are seriously thinking about it as a retirement destination.

[EB32010]

Simple reason, we are in the 2nd quarter of FY 2019 and EB3 dates are still behind 1st May 2009, which was last reached in 2009 for EB2. The filing dates moved only till April 2010, all the original EB2 filers till May 2010 would have got their EAD back in 2012 barring some unlucky few. USCIS not expected to respect filing dates anymore this FY.
The absolute best case , if the demand is low for July bulletin, they will open the filing dates again for July and it will take 3 months for the down porters to make an impact, which would be October 2019 (FY 2020) at the very earliest).
If the dates opened up in October 19 as I am hoping, then we will see the impacts from 2nd quarter of FY 20.
I understand that FAD haven’t reached May 2009. But DF have reached April 2010. I would think 75% of the folks who doesn’t have an EAD might have downgraded. How that translates into number, I don’t know

[sanjeevtrivedi]

"This transition no doubt will result in an increase in the number of EB2-to-EB3 “downgrade” cases from Indian-born applicants. If the increase is significant, this eventually could lead to EB2 India once again having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 India."

All- Be careful with your downgrades, what CO is saying that if there are significant downgrade. EB2 will have favorable dates. He is kind of indicating something. As suggested earlier by someone unless the FAD becomes current, don't hurry up. You don't want to be in a situation where you upgraded first from EB3 to EB2, than downgrade EB2-EB3 and get trapped