EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Blue_fairy]

Here is my situation..
Me: EB2 PD Oct 2009.
Wife: EB3 PD Sept 2009
With me as primary, we got our EADs back in 2012.

With the way EB2/EB3 dates are moving, it's almost certain that sept EB3 will happen before Oct EB2. My question is when that happens, will we have to file 485 for both of us again with my wife as the primary? If yes, do you think doing so will get us the GC faster compared to doing not hu ing and waiting for EB2 PD to advance to Oct 2009?

Thoughts anyone??

[EB2/eb3]

Thoughts anyone??
I think you will have to withdraw current 485 and apply a new one with your wife as primary. If you are okay with the extra costs and interview to get your GC 2/3 months faster then you should go this route. Eb3 inventory is a black box without knowing the exact number it is difficult to predict at this time, By April we should have a better picture .

[iatiam]

All,

Had a chat with my immigration attorney and she confirmed that it is possible to file for I140 as premium even if the original PERM is with some other employer.

Iatiam

[Prabhas]

All,

Had a chat with my immigration attorney and she confirmed that it is possible to file for I140 as premium even if the original PERM is with some other employer.

Iatiam


Thanks for Info Iatiam!

Could you please throw some more light?. Are you saying that if you are with the same employer you can apply for I140 under premium processing when downgrading from EB2 to EB3? This is contrary to some of the discussions , opinions posted here and that you can downport EB3 -I140 under regular processing only.

P

[iatiam]

Thanks for Info Iatiam!

Could you please throw some more light?. Are you saying that if you are with the same employer you can apply for I140 under premium processing when downgrading from EB2 to EB3? This is contrary to some of the discussions , opinions posted here and that you can downport EB3 -I140 under regular processing only.

P

I am not with the same employer who filed for PERM, I140 or 485. In fact, I have changed my job several times since getting EAD and the attorney knows this very well. But they said they can do premium for downgrading from EB3 to EB2. I did not ask if this is because they are filing in the same service center. As for the attorney credentials go, they are in the top 5 immigration firms and have a great track record. And it's not one of those desi ones (Murty, Reddy etc)

So I think it's doable in most cases.

Iatiam

[saagar_is_cool]

Thoughts anyone??

I know someone who had this, he was 2007 eb3 while she was late 2009 eb2 with ead in 2012. No camcelling or re-finig as far as i know. they just did interfile and got gc within a month or two.

[Blue_fairy]

I think you will have to withdraw current 485 and apply a new one with your wife as primary. If you are okay with the extra costs and interview to get your GC 2/3 months faster then you should go this route. Eb3 inventory is a black box without knowing the exact number it is difficult to predict at this time, By April we should have a better picture .

Thanks.. not worth the hassle for 2-3 months. I will stay put!

[Blue_fairy]

I know someone who had this, he was 2007 eb3 while she was late 2009 eb2 with ead in 2012. No camcelling or re-finig as far as i know. they just did interfile and got gc within a month or two.

Thanks. Sent a note to the immigration lawyers for a clarification. Will share what I learn here.

[SV2007]

Spec / YTEleven / Q / Aceman - I am super happy to share that I received my green cards this morning after waiting for 11 years and 2 months in EB3I queue. This forum and insights from the 4 of you have tremendously helped to tone my expectations during the past several years of frustration and hopelessness.

Special thanks to YTEleven, your prediction charts 4 years back for EB3I post July 2007 filers were spot on. When my job was going great, I was not sure if I needed to change my job and port to get my GC sooner. Your charts/predictions along with detailed logical explanations have given me hope. I continued to stick to my job and wait for my GC in EB3I. Thank you very much :)

Good luck and wishing the very best for everyone else waiting in the line.

[Spectator]

Spec / YTEleven / Q / Aceman - I am super happy to share that I received my green cards this morning after waiting for 11 years and 2 months in EB3I queue. This forum and insights from the 4 of you have tremendously helped to tone my expectations during the past several years of frustration and hopelessness.

Special thanks to YTEleven, your prediction charts 4 years back for EB3I post July 2007 filers were spot on. When my job was going great, I was not sure if I needed to change my job and port to get my GC sooner. Your charts/predictions along with detailed logical explanations have given me hope. I continued to stick to my job and wait for my GC in EB3I. Thank you very much :)

Good luck and wishing the very best for everyone else waiting in the line.
SV2007,

Congratulations.

That's a long time to wait and it must be a tremendous relief.

I'm not sure I would have had your patience.

[qesehmk]

Congrats SV. All is well that ends well. Enjoy your freedom :)
Spec / YTEleven / Q / Aceman - I am super happy to share that I received my green cards this morning after waiting for 11 years and 2 months in EB3I queue. This forum and insights from the 4 of you have tremendously helped to tone my expectations during the past several years of frustration and hopelessness.

Special thanks to YTEleven, your prediction charts 4 years back for EB3I post July 2007 filers were spot on. When my job was going great, I was not sure if I needed to change my job and port to get my GC sooner. Your charts/predictions along with detailed logical explanations have given me hope. I continued to stick to my job and wait for my GC in EB3I. Thank you very much :)

Good luck and wishing the very best for everyone else waiting in the line.

[newyorker123]

Off topic question :

I am on full time employment on H1b. My visa/I94 as per passport is only until July 2018. But my H1b extension was filed in March 2018 with premium processing and it was approved(with attached I94) until 2021.
I am working on a job change now, also thinking of joining new company with receipt.

Does it make sense to get my H1b stamped from my current company before joining new company ? Will it help if I have a visa stamped and an actual I94 until 2021 before initiating a job change now ? Does it help me somehow even if my transfer is denied ?

[kumar777]

Hello Guys,
My priority date is Dec 15th, 2009. is there any possibility of getting greened this year? I got an offer from another employer, but does it worth taking the risk of moving to a new employer now? Appreciate your response.

[qesehmk]

Let me say this for everybody's benefit.

1) You can hold multiple H1s .. and actually work for multiple employers at the same time. That's ok.
2) H1 stamped in Passport can never be current. Your valid and approved H1 notice is what indicates your latest authorization.
3) Stamping visa in your passport is only required when you are concerned about coming back to US after leaving it for whatever reason. Otherwise you can continue to live here on your extension.


Off topic question :

I am on full time employment on H1b. My visa/I94 as per passport is only until July 2018. But my H1b extension was filed in March 2018 with premium processing and it was approved(with attached I94) until 2021.
I am working on a job change now, also thinking of joining new company with receipt.

Does it make sense to get my H1b stamped from my current company before joining new company ? Will it help if I have a visa stamped and an actual I94 until 2021 before initiating a job change now ? Does it help me somehow even if my transfer is denied ?

[AceMan]

Spec / YTEleven / Q / Aceman - I am super happy to share that I received my green cards this morning after waiting for 11 years and 2 months in EB3I queue. This forum and insights from the 4 of you have tremendously helped to tone my expectations during the past several years of frustration and hopelessness.

Special thanks to YTEleven, your prediction charts 4 years back for EB3I post July 2007 filers were spot on. When my job was going great, I was not sure if I needed to change my job and port to get my GC sooner. Your charts/predictions along with detailed logical explanations have given me hope. I continued to stick to my job and wait for my GC in EB3I. Thank you very much :)

Good luck and wishing the very best for everyone else waiting in the line.

These are the special moments when you feel genuinely happy for a person whom you have known only through the forums. We all share a common pain, while occasionally people vent out their steam out of frustration, there is nothing malicious about it.

Wish you all the best from the bottom of my heart.

[srimurthy]

Let me say this for everybody's benefit.

1) You can hold multiple H1s .. and actually work for multiple employers at the same time. That's ok.
2) H1 stamped in Passport can never be current. Your valid and approved H1 notice is what indicates your latest authorization.
3) Stamping visa in your passport is only required when you are concerned about coming back to US after leaving it for whatever reason. Otherwise you can continue to live here on your extension.

As Q shared your extension with the new I-94 is good for Job change. You would only need stamping if you travel out of the country.
I have done two job changes and my company was merged or acquired thrice while my H1s got extended with I-94 attached. My family travelled out of the country and when ever they did they went to the consulate to get the visa stamped.

[SV2007]

Thank you very much Spec, Q and Aceman !

[Suva2001]

Spec / YTEleven / Q / Aceman - I am super happy to share that I received my green cards this morning after waiting for 11 years and 2 months in EB3I queue. This forum and insights from the 4 of you have tremendously helped to tone my expectations during the past several years of frustration and hopelessness.

Special thanks to YTEleven, your prediction charts 4 years back for EB3I post July 2007 filers were spot on. When my job was going great, I was not sure if I needed to change my job and port to get my GC sooner. Your charts/predictions along with detailed logical explanations have given me hope. I continued to stick to my job and wait for my GC in EB3I. Thank you very much :)

Good luck and wishing the very best for everyone else waiting in the line.

Congratulations to you. I agree with you about this forum. I am active in immigration forums since 2007. But I found this forum to be most accurate and well balanced.

Thanks

[Moveon]

If you have had your EAD for more than 180 days then its safe to move. The new company will anyway file your AC-21 and you will be safe even if the dates get current. If you do not have an EAD then I would advise you to weigh the options carefully as you would need to file a new application all over.
Chances of getting greened this fiscal year seems very remote for EB2-I for Dec 09. I am in the same month too. Not pinning much hope

[bluelabel]

A question on EAD/AP renewal- My EAD/AP renewal application was received at NSC on 10/23 and received Card production emails for mine and spouse EAD today but AP status for both of us still showing as case received and pending. My previous EAD/AP renewal applied in Dec 2016 also followed similar pattern. 2016 Advance parole is still pending, never received case status updates or AP approval notice but received combo card with EAD approval.

Is it a trend that USCIS does not approve AP or update case status website for AP but send Combo card valid for travel as well? Anybody in similar situation? how would i absolutely make sure my AP is indeed approved if i again receive a combo card but not AP approval letter or update in case status website.

[aquatican]

You have answered your own question. You received combo card ( EAD + AP) without AP approval notice in Dec 2016 which implies that you got your AP. It will happen again now. Look at your new card. if it says - Valid as Advance Parole then you are good.



A question on EAD/AP renewal- My EAD/AP renewal application was received at NSC on 10/23 and received Card production emails for mine and spouse EAD today but AP status for both of us still showing as case received and pending. My previous EAD/AP renewal applied in Dec 2016 also followed similar pattern. 2016 Advance parole is still pending, never received case status updates or AP approval notice but received combo card with EAD approval.

Is it a trend that USCIS does not approve AP or update case status website for AP but send Combo card valid for travel as well? Anybody in similar situation? how would i absolutely make sure my AP is indeed approved if i again receive a combo card but not AP approval letter or update in case status website.

[Progress]

My priory date is July 2013 . Any idea how long would be the wait

[imdeng]

Spec / YTEleven / Q / Aceman - I am super happy to share that I received my green cards this morning after waiting for 11 years and 2 months in EB3I queue. This forum and insights from the 4 of you have tremendously helped to tone my expectations during the past several years of frustration and hopelessness.

Special thanks to YTEleven, your prediction charts 4 years back for EB3I post July 2007 filers were spot on. When my job was going great, I was not sure if I needed to change my job and port to get my GC sooner. Your charts/predictions along with detailed logical explanations have given me hope. I continued to stick to my job and wait for my GC in EB3I. Thank you very much :)

Good luck and wishing the very best for everyone else waiting in the line.

Congratulations SV! Very happy for you and your family. Enjoy the freedom!

[swordfish380]

You have answered your own question. You received combo card ( EAD + AP) without AP approval notice in Dec 2016 which implies that you got your AP. It will happen again now. Look at your new card. if it says - Valid as Advance Parole then you are good.

How much time is USCIS taking to issue ead/ap for renewals

[Progress]

I am new to this forum. My priority date is July 2013. My wife is also the same . Separate perm applications.Have been in the USA since 2008.Could apply for GC after completion of residency. Demoralized to see the recent predictions my CO on the murthy law website.

[newyorker123]

As Q shared your extension with the new I-94 is good for Job change. You would only need stamping if you travel out of the country.
I have done two job changes and my company was merged or acquired thrice while my H1s got extended with I-94 attached. My family travelled out of the country and when ever they did they went to the consulate to get the visa stamped.

Thank you Srimurthy and Q! Ability to go abroad is one of my big concerns (in the specific case that I join on receipt)
Lets say I have H1b approval with current company until 2021, and I change companies and join new company on H1b receipt. New H1b is not approved. Can I even go abroad and re-enter in the following 2 cases ?
1) if I have my H1b stamp on passport with old company only until 2018 ?
2) if I have my H1b stamp on passport with old company until 2021 ?

[mar2010er]

Congratulations. I agree the analysis here is extremely valuable. On a side note, I am always curious on the cryptic website name "qeshmk" does anyone have any idea what it stands for?

[Tandav]

My priory date is July 2013 . Any idea how long would be the wait

I am sitting with EB2I Apr 2010 PD and I will be more than happy if I get greened within another 3 years. Do the math for yourself.

[Progress]

I am sitting with EB2I Apr 2010 PD and I will be more than happy if I get greened within another 3 years. Do the math for yourself.

👍👍👍👍 good to know

[bluelabel]

How much time is USCIS taking to issue ead/ap for renewals

Mine took 6 weeks at NSC and one my friend had approval in 4 weeks at TSC. USCIS improved on EAD/AP renewal timelines i guess, most of them i heard were approved between 4-8 weeks.

[smuggymba]

I am sitting with EB2I Apr 2010 PD and I will be more than happy if I get greened within another 3 years. Do the math for yourself.

I'm 30th March, 2010 EB2..I was hoping 2020...looks like 2021 ouchh!!

[shekhar_kuruk]

I'm 30th March, 2010 EB2..I was hoping 2020...looks like 2021 ouchh!!

Anybody with a priority date later than Sep 2009 should seriously consider downgrading to EB3, it is going to go way faster.

[Progress]

Why do you say any body. Looks like 2013 is a very long way to go.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Why do you say any body. Looks like 2013 is a very long way to go.
Fair enough, for 2013 priority dates it is better to wait a couple of years and see how it goes.

[smuggymba]

Anybody with a priority date later than Sep 2009 should seriously consider downgrading to EB3, it is going to go way faster.

I don;t have this option; I will just have to wait it out. People who can port to EB3 from EB2, please do so :)

[Immigo]

January 2019 visa bulletin released. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-january-2019.html

EB3-I filing date moved to April 1, 2010. Good movement, hopefully this will be honored by USCIS for AOS.

[NJMavarick]

Visa Bulletin out - EB3 India Filing Dates @01-APR2010

[bloddy1]

January 2019 visa bulletin released. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-january-2019.html

EB3-I filing date moved to April 1, 2010

Wow!! Soaring like an eagle but no movement on the FA date though.

[GCkaLADDU]

Good movement indeed. Very interesting thing to note is the NVC data included in the bulletin:

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2018.pdf

Looks like a lot of China folks are applying via Consular route in EB1 category.

[iatiam]

Good movement indeed. Very interesting thing to note is the NVC data included in the bulletin:

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/WaitingList/WaitingListItem_2018.pdf

Looks like a lot of China folks are applying via Consular route in EB1 category.

Baby steps, people. Three month movement for EB3I FD is really good. The last time we had such good news in January, it was year 2012.

[GCkaLADDU]

Gurus

Per NVC data, there are 21,385 applications waiting at NVC in EB3 India category as of Nov 1st, 2018. Sometime back, we saw that the total number of approved I-140 in EB3-I category was around 55K as of April 2018. Does this mean that there are roughly 34K (55 - 21) approved I-140's which will use AOS route roughly speaking?

Off course, there's a time difference in between these two reports but just trying to make sense at very high level.

[vyruss]

for final action dates for EB2I?

[newyorker123]

By any chance, is it possible to see filing or final dates of Jan 2012 in the next 1/2 years for EB2 or EB3 ?

[newyorker123]

EB1 A / EB1B / EB1C - the only solutions !

[srimurthy]

By any chance, is it possible to see filing or final dates of Jan 2012 in the next 1/2 years for EB2 or EB3 ?

No one knows for how long USCIS will keep accepting the filing dates. Jan 2012 in EB2 being able to file in the next two years only when some magic happens and that we can count it as not happening. Most PDs in late 2010 in EB2 are looking at the option of filing a I140 amendment to be considered for EB3 just to get EAD. Things will have more clarity for 2012 may be around Sep'19.

Someone just got greened after a 10 year wait and that should be the benchmark whether EB2 or EB3 how I look at things.

[newyorker123]

Tragic to note, but 10 yr mark in 2022 is not far away.

[AceMan]

No one knows for how long USCIS will keep accepting the filing dates. Jan 2012 in EB2 being able to file in the next two years only when some magic happens and that we can count it as not happening. Most PDs in late 2010 in EB2 are looking at the option of filing a I140 amendment to be considered for EB3 just to get EAD. Things will have more clarity for 2012 may be around Sep'19.

Someone just got greened after a 10 year wait and that should be the benchmark whether EB2 or EB3 how I look at things.


The filing date moved 3 months only for EB3 while rest of the dates for every category had very little or new movement. EB1-ROW is backlogged in the 2nd quarter as well. I was expecting them to be current in Jan 19.
I expect USCIS to continue to consider filing date for January as well.

[montyp80]

Gurus in the forum. How fast do you guys foresee FD moving for EB3I from here on? Or when do you expect to see slow down in EBI FD movement?

Reason I ask this is I am EB3 JAN/14, just trying to see when would I be able to apply for at least EAD/AP :)

Thanks in advance

[rohanvus]

Tragic to note, but 10 yr mark in 2022 is not far away.

Thats a very optimistic estimate

[NJMavarick]

Aceman - Where do you think the FD will end up for EB3 at the end of FY19? Please also consider the downgrade scenario once the FD passes May 2010. Thanks.

[aquatican]

Hello Guys,
Question for people with 2009 EB2 PDs with Supplement J RFEs recently . My Supplement J was approved 10/31 and then i received another email today. Did any one receive a 'Post Decision Activity' email today or in this week on their Supplement J?
I know USCIS does random batch emails and wonder if this is just random.

[YTeleven]

Spec / YTEleven / Q / Aceman - I am super happy to share that I received my green cards this morning after waiting for 11 years and 2 months in EB3I queue. This forum and insights from the 4 of you have tremendously helped to tone my expectations during the past several years of frustration and hopelessness.

Special thanks to YTEleven, your prediction charts 4 years back for EB3I post July 2007 filers were spot on. When my job was going great, I was not sure if I needed to change my job and port to get my GC sooner. Your charts/predictions along with detailed logical explanations have given me hope. I continued to stick to my job and wait for my GC in EB3I. Thank you very much :)

Good luck and wishing the very best for everyone else waiting in the line.

SV2007,
Congratulations. Enjoy your freedom.
Yes. We predicted this trend 4 years back and but its got delayed and it is happening now.
I know few more guys who were canceled their plan of upgrading to EB2-I based on our predictions and they are happy now.
For others and specifically for EB2-I guys my suggestion is try downgrade to EB3-I ASAP to grab the EB3 Visa for faster GC approval.
For next one decade EB3-I PDs will be ahead of EB2-I PDs. Those who grab the EB3 visa will get the GC faster.
Don't sit on EB2-I queue. EB2-I 2009 itself will take another year or 2 years to clear unless most of them downgrade to EB3-I or may be the next recession will clear it up.

[YTeleven]

January 2019 visa bulletin released. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-january-2019.html

EB3-I filing date moved to April 1, 2010. Good movement, hopefully this will be honored by USCIS for AOS.
I guess USCIS will honor filling dates till the downgrade rate picks up. People are NOT yet considering the downgrade option.

[saagar_is_cool]

SV2007,
Congratulations. Enjoy your freedom.
Yes. We predicted this trend 4 years back and but its got delayed and it is happening now.
I know few more guys who were canceled their plan of upgrading to EB2-I based on our predictions and they are happy now.
For others and specifically for EB2-I guys my suggestion is try downgrade to EB3-I ASAP to grab the EB3 Visa for faster GC approval.
For next one decade EB3-I PDs will be ahead of EB2-I PDs. Those who grab the EB3 visa will get the GC faster.
Don't sit on EB2-I queue. EB2-I 2009 itself will take another year or 2 years to clear unless most of them downgrade to EB3-I or may be the next recession will clear it up.

YTEleven, it is amazing you predicted this 4 years ago. I have a question for you. When you say EB2I should downgrade, does it apply to all? My PD is April 17 2009 EB2I. Does it make sense for me to downgrade to EB3I. My challenge is that I moved to current company on EAD and they did not do my GC processing. I am not sure if they need to start the process for me or what I need to do. Even to find out the process, I am debating whether it is worth it when my PD is April 17 2009.

[mknop1]

YTEleven, it is amazing you predicted this 4 years ago. I have a question for you. When you say EB2I should downgrade, does it apply to all? My PD is April 17 2009 EB2I. Does it make sense for me to downgrade to EB3I. My challenge is that I moved to current company on EAD and they did not do my GC processing. I am not sure if they need to start the process for me or what I need to do. Even to find out the process, I am debating whether it is worth it when my PD is April 17 2009.

My 2 cents: In your situation, it does not make any sense to take the risk to switch to EB3. You already have EAD, why take the hassle/risk to go through this process ?

[YTeleven]

I guess USCIS will honor filling dates till the downgrade rate picks up. People are NOT yet considering the downgrade option.

Its official, USCIS is honoring the filing dates: https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-january-2019

I guess not many are there to file but Good luck and Happy New Year for those who are filing in New Year.

[YTeleven]

My 2 cents: In your situation, it does not make any sense to take the risk to switch to EB3. You already have EAD, why take the hassle/risk to go through this process ?

I agree. Its not advisable in your case. if any one is saving a 1 year wait then it is worth trying the down grade option.

one thing is sure... EB3-I will zoom into 2011 very quickly if many of EB2-I guys are NOT opting for downgrade option.

[gcvijay]

I agree. Its not advisable in your case. if any one is saving a 1 year wait then it is worth trying the down grade option.

one thing is sure... EB3-I will zoom into 2011 very quickly if many of EB2-I guys are NOT opting for downgrade option.


Hi YT

For what priority dates or from what priority dates will you advice to downgrade as its unclear where EB2 INDIA will end during this FY?

Appreciate your response

[YTeleven]

Hi YT

For what priority dates or from what priority dates will you advice to downgrade as its unclear where EB2 INDIA will end during this FY?

Appreciate your response

Its a complicated question but there is a simple answer:
Here is the factors which dictate who should consider downgrade.
1) EB2-I PDs will NOT be retrogressed any more as there is NO more upward porting
2) EB2-I PDs will NOT catch EB3-I PDs until next recession or in next 5 years.
3) EB3-I PDs will NOT retrogress beyond EB2-I PDs in next 5 years to 10 years.
4) Estimated EB2 India visa allocation will be 3000/YR and for EB3-I the visa allocations can be estimated around 6000 to 9000/YR i.e. 2 to 3 times of EB2-I standard quota.
5) Currently, we have 1 year gap between EB2-I PD and EB3-I PD this GAP may increase or decrease every month based on the down ward porting pressure and the above 4 conditions.
Now people who are in this GAP can plan for downgrade based on the break even analysis and the break even point is how much risk you can take in the downgrade process against how much time you can wait in EB2-I queue. Its all depends on ones immigration situation and how much support he can get from the employer and so on.

[infotalk]

YTEleven, it is amazing you predicted this 4 years ago. I have a question for you. When you say EB2I should downgrade, does it apply to all? My PD is April 17 2009 EB2I. Does it make sense for me to downgrade to EB3I. My challenge is that I moved to current company on EAD and they did not do my GC processing. I am not sure if they need to start the process for me or what I need to do. Even to find out the process, I am debating whether it is worth it when my PD is April 17 2009.

YTEleven. I am a new joinee to this forum. Painfully waiting since May 2009. My PD is 30 May 2009 in EB2. What are your thoughts or calculations regarding that date ?

[infotalk]

Its a complicated question but there is a simple answer:
Here is the factors which dictate who should consider downgrade.
1) EB2-I PDs will NOT be retrogressed any more as there is NO more upward porting
2) EB2-I PDs will NOT catch EB3-I PDs until next recession or in next 5 years.
3) EB3-I PDs will NOT retrogress beyond EB2-I PDs in next 5 years to 10 years.
4) Estimated EB2 India visa allocation will be 3000/YR and for EB3-I the visa allocations can be estimated around 6000 to 9000/YR i.e. 2 to 3 times of EB2-I standard quota.
5) Currently, we have 1 year gap between EB2-I PD and EB3-I PD this GAP may increase or decrease every month based on the down ward porting pressure and the above 4 conditions.
Now people who are in this GAP can plan for downgrade based on the break even analysis and the break even point is how much risk you can take in the downgrade process against how much time you can wait in EB2-I queue. Its all depends on ones immigration situation and how much support he can get from the employer and so on.

YT, What do you think about PD 30 May 2009 EB2 ? When is the best estimate that it will become current ?

[YTeleven]

No. Not EB2-I. But I can expect EB3-I will move to that far in next 6 months.

This is exactly 6 months old post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=59678#post59678

[YTeleven]

Gurus

Per NVC data, there are 21,385 applications waiting at NVC in EB3 India category as of Nov 1st, 2018. Sometime back, we saw that the total number of approved I-140 in EB3-I category was around 55K as of April 2018. Does this mean that there are roughly 34K (55 - 21) approved I-140's which will use AOS route roughly speaking?

Off course, there's a time difference in between these two reports but just trying to make sense at very high level.

That's total outstanding applications for India but we don't know the PDs of those applications.
Moreover, I don't believe those Applications will be converted into GCs.
Most of those Applications will be ultimately get destroyed for lack of employer support.

[hopeunlimited76]

Its a complicated question but there is a simple answer:
Here is the factors which dictate who should consider downgrade.
1) EB2-I PDs will NOT be retrogressed any more as there is NO more upward porting
2) EB2-I PDs will NOT catch EB3-I PDs until next recession or in next 5 years.
3) EB3-I PDs will NOT retrogress beyond EB2-I PDs in next 5 years to 10 years.
4) Estimated EB2 India visa allocation will be 3000/YR and for EB3-I the visa allocations can be estimated around 6000 to 9000/YR i.e. 2 to 3 times of EB2-I standard quota.
5) Currently, we have 1 year gap between EB2-I PD and EB3-I PD this GAP may increase or decrease every month based on the down ward porting pressure and the above 4 conditions.
Now people who are in this GAP can plan for downgrade based on the break even analysis and the break even point is how much risk you can take in the downgrade process against how much time you can wait in EB2-I queue. Its all depends on ones immigration situation and how much support he can get from the employer and so on.

YTeleven, Why would EB3 get more visa number compared to EB2?
My EB2 I priority is Sept 2010. When should I start EB3 downgrade process? Now or should I wait for the EB3I filing date to be current for my priority date?

[Nishant_imt]

Everyone is talking about EB3I.. But for people like me, who ware just a couple of days away to become current under EB2I, this is very frustrating. They didn't move a day for EB2I FAD. Was this expected? When can we expect next movement in EB2I?

[Ramsen]

Everyone is talking about EB3I.. But for people like me, who ware just a couple of days away to become current under EB2I, this is very frustrating. They didn't move a day for EB2I FAD. Was this expected? When can we expect next movement in EB2I?

not too far away from green card. Worst case scenario could be 3 months for for the PD movement. They usually move 1 to 2 weeks until July for some months

[menlow]

I changed jobs in 2016 and ported my date from EB3 to EB2 with new I140 in March 2018. My PD is 5/27/2009. I have painfully waited since july 2018 only to have the dates stuck (date of filing 5/22/2009 and final action). Please advise when can we see some movement and is there any way to make things happen. Any advise on my situation is appreciated

[Raj0687]

Its a complicated question but there is a simple answer:
Here is the factors which dictate who should consider downgrade.
1) EB2-I PDs will NOT be retrogressed any more as there is NO more upward porting
2) EB2-I PDs will NOT catch EB3-I PDs until next recession or in next 5 years.
3) EB3-I PDs will NOT retrogress beyond EB2-I PDs in next 5 years to 10 years.
4) Estimated EB2 India visa allocation will be 3000/YR and for EB3-I the visa allocations can be estimated around 6000 to 9000/YR i.e. 2 to 3 times of EB2-I standard quota.
5) Currently, we have 1 year gap between EB2-I PD and EB3-I PD this GAP may increase or decrease every month based on the down ward porting pressure and the above 4 conditions.
Now people who are in this GAP can plan for downgrade based on the break even analysis and the break even point is how much risk you can take in the downgrade process against how much time you can wait in EB2-I queue. Its all depends on ones immigration situation and how much support he can get from the employer and so on.

Um... EB2 may not be as dry as we think, couple of things to notice 1> EB3->EB2 porting will be zero here on 2> it appears that EB2 did get some SO last year, that's why it moved 2.5 months last quarter. So I think, EB2 will also move relatively faster than the previous years.

[h1bh1bh1b]

Um... EB2 may not be as dry as we think, couple of things to notice 1> EB3->EB2 porting will be zero here on 2> it appears that EB2 did get some SO last year, that's why it moved 2.5 months last quarter. So I think, EB2 will also move relatively faster than the previous years.

3. People who already ported to EB2 from EB3 are filing with EB3. Myself and couple of my colleagues are in this boat

[AceMan]

SV2007,
Congratulations. Enjoy your freedom.
Yes. We predicted this trend 4 years back and but its got delayed and it is happening now.
I know few more guys who were canceled their plan of upgrading to EB2-I based on our predictions and they are happy now.
For others and specifically for EB2-I guys my suggestion is try downgrade to EB3-I ASAP to grab the EB3 Visa for faster GC approval.
For next one decade EB3-I PDs will be ahead of EB2-I PDs. Those who grab the EB3 visa will get the GC faster.
Don't sit on EB2-I queue. EB2-I 2009 itself will take another year or 2 years to clear unless most of them downgrade to EB3-I or may be the next recession will clear it up.


Count me in as another non-upgrader for Feb 2011. I had my job promotion 3 years back, and I was seriously contemplating to upgrade and that's when the October 2015 bulletin fiasco happened. My colleague who also had a promotion went ahead and upgraded because his dates were November 2010 while I stay put.

EB1 ROW did not come back to current as expected for January bulletin. This means India getting less numbers in EB1C and lot of applicants close to their last year of L1 will have to return without a chance to file. I expect the filing to be less in 2020 for EB1 and the chance of vertical spill over to EB2 is high in the cards for the end of 2020. What it means is, while it sure for Eb 2010's to port to EB3 and get EAD faster, it is not an easy decision for Eb2 2011.

18 months from now, the porting down will clog EB3, and all it takes is low demand for EB1 in 2020 to get a SO of 10,000 to propel EB2 I back to forefront. Then there will be a mad scramble to port back or do whatever if that happens. We have seen that happening for Chinese a lot recently after Eb3 was ahead for close to 3 years.

[infotalk]

This is exactly 6 months old post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=59678#post59678

Can you please share your analysis and expectation on when can we expect May 30 2009 in EB2 to be current based on the recent trend ? There is a very important Job decision I need to make this weekend.

Appreciate your help.

[ag1979]

Hello Gurus,

Need some advice.

My PD is Oct 2009 on EB3 from previous employer. My current employer has filed PERM. With the new application, do I port to EB2 or continue with EB3. Though EB3 is current now, is there any change it may retrogress.

Thanks

[vsivarama]

I have my priority date in August 2011. I am pretty sure a lot of people who are in my boat are not worried about the GC at this point. Most of them are looking forward to favorable filing dates to apply for AOS/EAD/AP. I wouldn't mind spending a few years in EAD. It's still way better than being on H1 as it provides more flexibility.

[tatikonda]

YTeleven,

While, I agree with your comments. I believe you are assuming that no legislative action will be done for next 5 years.
I believe otherwise, I am frustrated with no action on immigration reform for last several years but I am still hopeful.
Once new congress comes in January, they have to work on some bills,
since they completed "Tax Reform Bill", zero chance for "HealthCare Reform Bill" logical choice would be immigration bill.
even in worst scenario, they have to tackle "DACA" before next presidential elections ..

bottom line, I think there will be some legislative action on immigration sooner than later.

Regards
Tatikonda.


Its a complicated question but there is a simple answer:
Here is the factors which dictate who should consider downgrade.
1) EB2-I PDs will NOT be retrogressed any more as there is NO more upward porting
2) EB2-I PDs will NOT catch EB3-I PDs until next recession or in next 5 years.
3) EB3-I PDs will NOT retrogress beyond EB2-I PDs in next 5 years to 10 years.
4) Estimated EB2 India visa allocation will be 3000/YR and for EB3-I the visa allocations can be estimated around 6000 to 9000/YR i.e. 2 to 3 times of EB2-I standard quota.
5) Currently, we have 1 year gap between EB2-I PD and EB3-I PD this GAP may increase or decrease every month based on the down ward porting pressure and the above 4 conditions.
Now people who are in this GAP can plan for downgrade based on the break even analysis and the break even point is how much risk you can take in the downgrade process against how much time you can wait in EB2-I queue. Its all depends on ones immigration situation and how much support he can get from the employer and so on.

[iatiam]

YTeleven,

While, I agree with your comments. I believe you are assuming that no legislative action will be done for next 5 years.
I believe otherwise, I am frustrated with no action on immigration reform for last several years but I am still hopeful.
Once new congress comes in January, they have to work on some bills,
since they completed "Tax Reform Bill", zero chance for "HealthCare Reform Bill" logical choice would be immigration bill.
even in worst scenario, they have to tackle "DACA" before next presidential elections ..

bottom line, I think there will be some legislative action on immigration sooner than later.

Regards
Tatikonda.

There will most probably be no legislative action for the next six years and I really hope I am wrong. Back in the days when things were much less partisan and much less toxic, we couldn't get any thing done. The last bill on immigration was passed two decades ago. Even the country cap removal was in the works since 2007. Kenvin Yoder who sponsored HR392 lost the election and the bill will need to be re-introduced and found a sponsor. Plus democrats will not agree on a bill which just benefits high-skilled immigrants. They just won't. And even if we could get it past house (like it did in 2011), there will be major opposition from other countries because the bill is zero-sum. I am done fighting for it. My better option is to downgrade and jump to a quicker line.

Also, one thing none of us can predict is when the economy slows. So far the job market is robust but may be in an year's time it won't be and it will impact the filings. PERM filings will slow down, ROW will be current and if you and I are lucky enough to be still employed, we would be greened. But it's gonna be a slog.

Iatiam

[tatikonda]

I can understand your frustration.... Since, it is divided congress they should compromise and work on something.
once Dems take control over house, DACA will be heard everywhere and Trump wants Wall..
so they may get some compromise to appease base voters.




There will most probably be no legislative action for the next six years and I really hope I am wrong. Back in the days when things were much less partisan and much less toxic, we couldn't get any thing done. The last bill on immigration was passed two decades ago. Even the country cap removal was in the works since 2007. Kenvin Yoder who sponsored HR392 lost the election and the bill will need to be re-introduced and found a sponsor. Plus democrats will not agree on a bill which just benefits high-skilled immigrants. They just won't. And even if we could get it past house (like it did in 2011), there will be major opposition from other countries because the bill is zero-sum. I am done fighting for it. My better option is to downgrade and jump to a quicker line.

Also, one thing none of us can predict is when the economy slows. So far the job market is robust but may be in an year's time it won't be and it will impact the filings. PERM filings will slow down, ROW will be current and if you and I are lucky enough to be still employed, we would be greened. But it's gonna be a slog.

Iatiam

[aquatican]

Everyone is talking about EB3I.. But for people like me, who ware just a couple of days away to become current under EB2I, this is very frustrating. They didn't move a day for EB2I FAD. Was this expected? When can we expect next movement in EB2I?

Ha. It would be so clear where you stand if we knew Pending Inventory. It seems almost planned that they are not releasing that. I am sure there is some other issue delaying the report but still the lack of transparency is alarming. I believe there was legislation forcing them to release the report?!

[lville]

Here is situation PD May 22,2009 EB2-I

Just talked to my lawyer. Here is what we discussed: We will file downgrade to EB3 and request premium process for EB3 I-140. As per my lawyer most likely they wont accept that and will only consider regular process. The only silver lining in this case he said is that I could apply for adjustment of status and get my EAD and Advance parole while my I-140 approval is pending. According to him you don't need approved I-140 to get EAD and AP. As my FD date is current in EB3 he said we can apply for EAD and AP and just wait for I-140.

Its going to take another 6 months for my PD to be current in EB2 anyways and then add 6 more months to get EAD/AP, Thats close to an year in EB2.

Why not at least get EAD and AP in next 6 months under EB3 and wait for I-140. Plus according to my lawyer I cud use that AP for travel. So I've decided to port down to EB3.

[skpanda]

Here is situation PD May 22,2009 EB2-I

Just talked to my lawyer. Here is what we discussed: We will file downgrade to EB3 and request premium process for EB3 I-140. As per my lawyer most likely they wont accept that and will only consider regular process. The only silver lining in this case he said is that I could apply for adjustment of status and get my EAD and Advance parole while my I-140 approval is pending. According to him you don't need approved I-140 to get EAD and AP. As my FD date is current in EB3 he said we can apply for EAD and AP and just wait for I-140.

Its going to take another 6 months for my PD to be current in EB2 anyways and then add 6 more months to get EAD/AP, Thats close to an year in EB2.

Why not at least get EAD and AP in next 6 months under EB3 and wait for I-140. Plus according to my lawyer I cud use that AP for travel. So I've decided to port down to EB3.

u were current in 2012... did u miss the boat?

[monsieur]

My PD is Aug 2010. Thru and Thru EB2-I guy. When I reached out to my firm's lawyer they told me following

1. Perm doesn't need to be filed to downgrade
2. I-140 can't be filed in premium and may take 6-8 months for approval.
3. Once I-140 is filed/approved for EB3. I can't move back to EB-2. My only option is to stick with EB3.

So they told me think about it before making any call on downgrade

Firm in question is Fragoman

[newyorker123]

My PD is Aug 2010. Thru and Thru EB2-I guy. When I reached out to my firm's lawyer they told me following

1. Perm doesn't need to be filed to downgrade
2. I-140 can't be filed in premium and may take 6-8 months for approval.
3. Once I-140 is filed/approved for EB3. I can't move back to EB-2. My only option is to stick with EB3.

So they told me think about it before making any call on downgrade

Firm in question is Fragoman

Curious - Why the I-140 cannot be filed in premium ?
Also, can you not file concurrent I-140/I-485 ?

[lville]

Curious - Why the I-140 cannot be filed in premium ?
Also, can you not file concurrent I-140/I-485 ?

As per attorney for USCIS to process I-140 under premium it has to be accompanied with Original PERM. When you downgrade from EB2 to EB3 you don't need PERM and as your downgrade petition does not have PERM with it, you cannot file it under premium.

However I read a blog somewhere that said if your downgrade petition (EB3) is filed at the same service center as your EB2 petition was, you could request for premium process. Not sure how accurate that info is. I asked my attorney and he said he's not aware of such thing and downgrade petition for I-140 can only be filed under regular process. He said we could request premium and see what happens.

The good thing for me he mentioned that under EB3 my PD (May 22,2009 India) is current for filing and we could apply for downgrade along with adjustment status and get my EAD and Advance parole while my I-140 can take it's sweet time. You don't need to have I-140 to request EAD/AP as long as your filing date is current in that category. I haven't traveled for last 5 yrs and all I care at this point is EAD/AP and GC can take its time.

[YTeleven]

Here is situation PD May 22,2009 EB2-I

The only silver lining in this case he said is that I could apply for adjustment of status and get my EAD and Advance parole while my I-140 approval is pending. According to him you don't need approved I-140 to get EAD and AP. As my FD date is current in EB3 he said we can apply for EAD and AP and just wait for I-140.



If you are filling the I-485 for the first time and if this is true that you can file I-485 concurrently based on your EB2-I PD then I would suggest file it this Monday (meaning NO delays) without any second thought. Let us know your experience in this forum once you filed. It will be helpful to others here.

[YTeleven]

Can you please share your analysis and expectation on when can we expect May 30 2009 in EB2 to be current based on the recent trend ? There is a very important Job decision I need to make this weekend.

Appreciate your help.

All I can say is there is NO hope for EB2-I in near future, not even 2009. Try get into I-485 status quickly instead even if it is thru EB3-I route.

[YTeleven]

3. People who already ported to EB2 from EB3 are filing with EB3. Myself and couple of my colleagues are in this boat

Could you let us know your and your friends' experiences here that will help others. Are you just interfiling back to older EB-3 140 with same employer? OR filing 485 with EB-3I 140?

[YTeleven]

I know someone who had this, he was 2007 eb3 while she was late 2009 eb2 with ead in 2012. No camcelling or re-finig as far as i know. they just did interfile and got gc within a month or two.

Probably they just switched the primary I-140 to EB3I that's where the VISAs are abundantly available and they got the GCs quickly. That's a smart move.
If you get more info from their experiences it would help others here.

[rohanvus]

All I can say is there is NO hope for EB2-I in near future, not even 2009. Try get into I-485 status quickly instead even if it is thru EB3-I route.

YTeleven,

You mean for Final Action Date or does your statement hold true even for filing dates as well ?

Also , do you see EB2-I filing date to be Jan 2012 in 5 years from now or that speculation is very very optimistic ?

[EB2/eb3]

YTeleven, any idea why co is moving eb3 filing dates aggressively when there are so many ppl from 2007/2008 still waiting to be greened. Is he trying to build the inventory for fy19 or is he building for fy20 too?

[tenyearsgone]

All I can say is there is NO hope for EB2-I in near future, not even 2009. Try get into I-485 status quickly instead even if it is thru EB3-I route.

YT .. that's depressing, but reality probably. Based on available numbers, do you think a movement of 3 months/yr is possible for 2009 for EB2I?

[BigAnt]

Hello YTeleven/AceMan/Members - Do you think EB3-India Filing date would continue to advance till 1 May 2010 in next month's (Feb 2019) visa bulletin? If yes, then would it be respected by USCIS?

Thanks

[kkruna]

Question: If one has gone through a change of job and has new PERM approved under EB2, can he downgrade to EB3 and file I-140 in premium (because he has "original PERM"). The situation would apply to me in coming months...

[srimurthy]

EB1 ROW did not come back to current as expected for January bulletin. This means India getting less numbers in EB1C and lot of applicants close to their last year of L1 will have to return without a chance to file. I expect the filing to be less in 2020 for EB1 and the chance of vertical spill over to EB2 is high in the cards for the end of 2020. What it means is, while it sure for Eb 2010's to port to EB3 and get EAD faster, it is not an easy decision for Eb2 2011.


I don't think you will have any L1's that are nearing the last year. As an L1A can be extended for a max of 7 years, the oldest date is with China in 2016 so there will not be anyone returning back who might have filed or planning to file in EB1 - my thoughts

[srimurthy]

YTeleven, Why would EB3 get more visa number compared to EB2?


EB3I may get more than EB2I as there is a possibility for horizontal SO from EB3 ROW

[dev2010]

Question: If one has gone through a change of job and has new PERM approved under EB2, can he downgrade to EB3 and file I-140 in premium (because he has "original PERM"). The situation would apply to me in coming months...

As far as I know. A perm approved in EB2 should qualify to file I-140 under EB3 as EB3 skillset is a subset of EB2. So this should be possible. I am in similar situation (Oct-2010 PD) and my Perm is under process. Whenever it gets approved, I will most likely end up filing I-140 under EB3.

[AceMan]

Hello YTeleven/AceMan/Members - Do you think EB3-India Filing date would continue to advance till 1 May 2010 in next month's (Feb 2019) visa bulletin? If yes, then would it be respected by USCIS?

Thanks


I expect Eb3 filing dates to be stagnant for next 2-3 bulletins and the next big movement for April bulletin only. Final dates can be expected to move forward during this time.

[desibhai]

I hope that you understand risk using EAD/AP without I-140 approval. I would suggest that get EAD/AP but won't change status until I-140 gets approved.

[Raj0687]

I expect Eb3 filing dates to be stagnant for next 2-3 bulletins and the next big movement for April bulletin only. Final dates can be expected to move forward during this time.

USCIS may see some EB3 demand only after the filing dates crosses May/1/2010, until then I think it will keep moving.

[AceMan]

USCIS may see some EB3 demand only after the filing dates crosses May/1/2010, until then I think it will keep moving.

For the next couple of months, I would see the final dates moving forward for EB3, while holding on the filing date for the same period.

[EB22010Dec]

@Aceman - when do you think Eb3 will cross 2010 Dec.
I moved jobs recently and my employer is starting to file GC next month.

Thank you very much in advance for the advice.

[march1612]

Apologize if this is redundant question, can Guru's here forecast how 2019 would be for EB2-I and EB3-I backing with numbers?

Once again, Merry Christmas and Happy new year. I hope everyone gets greened.

[AceMan]

Apologize if this is redundant question, can Guru's here forecast how 2019 would be for EB2-I and EB3-I backing with numbers?

Once again, Merry Christmas and Happy new year. I hope everyone gets greened.

If you want the backing of the numbers we can do only EB2 I. With very limited SO, EB2 will end FY 2019 with 1st August 2009. Depending on the SO, we can revisit this in July 2019 to see if there is a chance of pushing it to September or October 2009. Extremely difficult to see EB2 pass November 09.

Eb3 filing dates moved to April 2010 for January 2019. Inventory building going on, most probably surpass EB2 final dates in the next couple of months. Depending on the demand, it can get a big jump in the April bulletin or the July bulletin. No concrete numbers to backup, but in all probability EB3 I might end FY 2019 with a May 1st 2010 PD, and filing date at 1st April 2011.

The downward porting will come into picture only from FY 2020.

[YTeleven]

YTeleven, any idea why co is moving eb3 filing dates aggressively when there are so many ppl from 2007/2008 still waiting to be greened. Is he trying to build the inventory for fy19 or is he building for fy20 too?

Where did you get the info on so many people with 2007/2008 PDs waiting in EB3I?
The FAD for EB3I is 01MAR09 that means All the applications with PDs older than this date are in final process and are guaranteed to get the GC as soon as they clear the final action process.
There is NO inventory building concept since Jul'15 when Obama Admn. reformed the Visa Bulletin process.
You can't use the filing dates for inventory building but you can use those dates to take the application in advance and make the process smoother and efficient.
No more retrogressions with this reform that's the original intention of the Obama's EO.
So all the people who are filing in EB3I next month will be going to get the GCs in 8 months, they are not going to sit in inventory for 6 years like the applications received in 2012 inventory building.
In other words can you find anyone who filed the I-485 after Jul'15 and waiting for more than a year to get the GC. I don't think there is any such applicant exists unless he/she stuck in background check.

[YTeleven]

YT .. that's depressing, but reality probably. Based on available numbers, do you think a movement of 3 months/yr is possible for 2009 for EB2I?

I can only predict the total supply of the VISAs for EB2I and it will be 3000/YR for next 3 years.
Now if you assume EB2I has 1000 applications/Month of Inventory then it is true that Eb2I will move 3 months/Year for next 3 years.

Its really depressing....

[rohanvus]

I can only predict the total supply of the VISAs for EB2I and it will be 3000/YR for next 3 years.
Now if you assume EB2I has 1000 applications/Month of Inventory then it is true that Eb2I will move 3 months/Year for next 3 years.

Its really depressing....

YTeleven,


For someone whose PD is in dec 2011 (EB2 India) , should he grab opportunity in Canada or should he do wait and watch for 3/4 years ( assume things get better in 4 years from now ) ? .. Whats your take ?

[gcvijay]

Are you saying there will not be any spillovers to EB2 INDIA for next three years? The EB2 I dates are at April 1 2009 already so you are saying by end of this FY its May 2009? by FY 2020 Aug 2009 and by FY 2021 its Nov 2009? If that is the case shouldn't the entire EB2 INDIA who have and have not filed AOS will be downgrading to make use of this. Don't you think this will make the EB3 inventory flood up. I'm pretty sure there are too many downgrades going on already and it will show up in the future inventory. I will be surprised if EB3 doesn't get jammed and still made to move further.

[tenyearsgone]

Are you saying there will not be any spillovers to EB2 INDIA for next three years? The EB2 I dates are at April 1 2009 already so you are saying by end of this FY its May 2009? by FY 2020 Aug 2009 and by FY 2021 its Nov 2009? If that is the case shouldn't the entire EB2 INDIA who have and have not filed AOS will be downgrading to make use of this. Don't you think this will make the EB3 inventory flood up. I'm pretty sure there are too many downgrades going on already and it will show up in the future inventory. I will be surprised if EB3 doesn't get jammed and still made to move further.

That's what the numbers say. If I remember right, the pending applications beyond April 2009 are around 1000 - 1500/month. With no spillover, the movement is fairly well defined at 2-3months/yr for the next few years.

Downgrading is not an option for everyone for various reasons. A good percentage of the folks who got EAD would have switched jobs in the last 7 years(since 2012 Feb) and wouldn't have filed a new Perm since they used AC21. It takes time and effort to get a new perm filed and move ahead. Some attorneys say that a new perm is not needed, but my company's attorney says new perm and I-140 is required.

However, everyone beyond 2010 April has a new perm with their current employer, so they should/will downgrade for sure. The future EB3 jam will come primarily from post-April 2010 folks.

[YTeleven]

Are you saying there will not be any spillovers to EB2 INDIA for next three years? The EB2 I dates are at April 1 2009 already so you are saying by end of this FY its May 2009? by FY 2020 Aug 2009 and by FY 2021 its Nov 2009? If that is the case shouldn't the entire EB2 INDIA who have and have not filed AOS will be downgrading to make use of this. Don't you think this will make the EB3 inventory flood up. I'm pretty sure there are too many downgrades going on already and it will show up in the future inventory. I will be surprised if EB3 doesn't get jammed and still made to move further.

Yes. That's where we are heading. Another prediction we can safely make here is EB2I+EB3I Combined VISAs = 10000+/YR.
I think We saw this drill by EB3I porters for last one decade, now it EB2I guys turn to become porters for next one decade.
Good part of this is there are no one in EB3I to curse the Eb2I guy as porter. Its a empty queue who ever downgrades first gets the freedom first.
This reminds me of the Hindi movie names: "Andaz Apna Apna", "Joh Jeetha Wohi Sikander"

[YTeleven]

That's what the numbers say. If I remember right, the pending applications beyond April 2009 are around 1000 - 1500/month. With no spillover, the movement is fairly well defined at 2-3months/yr for the next few years.

Downgrading is not an option for everyone for various reasons. A good percentage of the folks who got EAD would have switched jobs in the last 7 years(since 2012 Feb) and wouldn't have filed a new Perm since they used AC21. It takes time and effort to get a new perm filed and move ahead. Some attorneys say that a new perm is not needed, but my company's attorney says new perm and I-140 is required.

However, everyone beyond 2010 April has a new perm with their current employer, so they should/will downgrade for sure. The future EB3 jam will come primarily from post-April 2010 folks.

True. I appreciate your thoughts. EB2I AC21 guys are clueless on what to do next.
Spec,
Any thoughts on what can a EB2I AC21 person can do to downgrade and get the GC faster while EB3I queue is on its free wheels?

[EB2/eb3]

Where did you get the info on so many people with 2007/2008 PDs waiting in EB3I?
The FAD for EB3I is 01MAR09 that means All the applications with PDs older than this date are in final process and are guaranteed to get the GC as soon as they clear the final action process.
There is NO inventory building concept since Jul'15 when Obama Admn. reformed the Visa Bulletin process.
You can't use the filing dates for inventory building but you can use those dates to take the application in advance and make the process smoother and efficient.
No more retrogressions with this reform that's the original intention of the Obama's EO.
So all the people who are filing in EB3I next month will be going to get the GCs in 8 months, they are not going to sit in inventory for 6 years like the applications received in 2012 inventory building.
In other words can you find anyone who filed the I-485 after Jul'15 and waiting for more than a year to get the GC. I don't think there is any such applicant exists unless he/she stuck in background check.
Track it shows 178 active users who filed 485 just this year and it does not even include any dec filers. I think we multiply this number by 20 or 30(derivatives and assuming only 10% are on track it and added their case to the tracker) to get an approximate which ~ 4,450. Even with 3k SO Eb3 fad can’t go beyond 2009 this fy year.
P.s: multiplying by 20 or 30 is something someone on this forum showed, to get an approximate count

[nbk1976]

YTeleven,


For someone whose PD is in dec 2011 (EB2 India) , should he grab opportunity in Canada or should he do wait and watch for 3/4 years ( assume things get better in 4 years from now ) ? .. Whats your take ?

Everyone's case is very unlike everyone else's. If your career and your family's is better in Canada or elsewhere than you should move. There is no reason to waste a decade of your life in any hardship. Why are you in the US, is the question you must ask yourself. What is the main and foremost reason? Is it pay? just a change of scenery? better career growth? or better quality of life? or something else? And how important is that?

In my case, if moving out of the US was an easy option, I should return home, not move to Canada or any other place. My career being in non-technology, and having invested heavily here, moving is a lot harder than staying.

[YTeleven]

Track it shows 178 active users who filed 485 just this year and it does not even include any dec filers. I think we multiply this number by 20 or 30(derivatives and assuming only 10% are on track it and added their case to the tracker) to get an approximate which ~ 4,450. Even with 3k SO Eb3 fad can’t go beyond 2009 this fy year.
P.s: multiplying by 20 or 30 is something someone on this forum showed, to get an approximate count

I'm NOT a track it guy. I use only USCIS & DOS data for the predictions.
I still believe EB3I queue will be a runaway train in near future if we don't have a pathway for the EB2I AC21 guys to grab a visa from EB3I quota.
I will not surprise if EB3I queue moves to 2011 in next 9 months.

[EB22010Dec]

I'm NOT a track it guy. I use only USCIS & DOS data for the predictions.
I still believe EB3I queue will be a runaway train in near future if we don't have a pathway for the EB2I AC21 guys to grab a visa from EB3I quota.
I will not surprise if EB3I queue moves to 2011 in next 9 months.


It might go into 2011, but will it stay in 2011?

[AceMan]

I'm NOT a track it guy. I use only USCIS & DOS data for the predictions.
I still believe EB3I queue will be a runaway train in near future if we don't have a pathway for the EB2I AC21 guys to grab a visa from EB3I quota.
I will not surprise if EB3I queue moves to 2011 in next 9 months.


EB3 I has little over 50 K approved I 140's from 2007 to early 2018. If we account for approvals from April 2018 till date, along with the upgrades, duplicates and abandoned, the true numbers might be even less than 20 K. So while the runaway train will go till early 2012, it will be halted there for a while till EB2 pass May 2010.

The downgrades will not temper EB3 progress for FY 19. FY 2020 a different ball game.

[EB22010Dec]

EB3 I has little over 50 K approved I 140's from 2007 to early 2018. If we account for approvals from April 2018 till date, along with the upgrades, duplicates and abandoned, the true numbers might be even less than 20 K. So while the runaway train will go till early 2012, it will be halted there for a while till EB2 pass May 2010.

The downgrades will not temper EB3 progress for FY 19. FY 2020 a different ball game.


Do you think in 2020 Eb3 will be pushed back into 2010 or will it be leaft in 2011/2012 ?

How does the new way of using filing date and actual date effect this ?

[newyorker123]

What a conundrum the EB2I people are in. And with a 2012PD, I am in a dilemma whether or not to join the conundrum.
But having seen what has happened in the past few years, I think no one should place their life/career in the hands of USCIS and the like. If you see a more definitive option ahead (such as EB1C / Canada etc. etc.), just go for it.

[AceMan]

Do you think in 2020 Eb3 will be pushed back into 2010 or will it be leaft in 2011/2012 ?

How does the new way of using filing date and actual date effect this ?

The filing dates will now act as a buffer from sudden retrogression and the wastage of visa's which has been bogging EB3 for close to a decade. Even while all the pointers are showing that EB3 I will zoom well into 2011 this FY, the side story is that's going to be filing date and not final date. I will be surprised to see if final dates moving beyond May 2010 this FY.

For reasonable 2020 analysis, we need to see how much SO, EB2 got in 2019.

[Immigo]

The filing dates will now act as a buffer from sudden retrogression and the wastage of visa's which has been bogging EB3 for close to a decade. Even while all the pointers are showing that EB3 I will zoom well into 2011 this FY, the side story is that's going to be filing date and not final date. I will be surprised to see if final dates moving beyond May 2010 this FY.

For reasonable 2020 analysis, we need to see how much SO, EB2 got in 2019.

On a lighter note, looks like in 2020, EB2 and EB3 categories will have a twenty-twenty match! Oh well, we will know at the end of 2020, because hindsight is 20/20 :)

[iatiam]

True. I appreciate your thoughts. EB2I AC21 guys are clueless on what to do next.
Spec,
Any thoughts on what can a EB2I AC21 person can do to downgrade and get the GC faster while EB3I queue is on its free wheels?

I guess I don't get it.

I have shared this info here before - my attorney who is one of the leading ones in the US told that they are open for a downgrade. She indicated that it's possible to do it in premium as well. For the record I am an EB2 guy and never had an EB3 petition.

Also, if you could port, why shouldn't someone be able to reverse port? Theoretically it should be easier. Going by precedent, Chinese have done it and it has very good precedent.

The only reason downward porting is not happened yet is because EB3I FAD is still behind EB2I. If this moves to a comfortable six month or so ahead of EB2, I bet a lot of us will take this option. The argument that "You have an EAD just wait" is not valid. Some of us have waited close to 10 years and is such an option is available, why not take it.

Also, stock market is crashing. It's just a matter of time before it spreads in to overall economy. People will act in their best interest and I don't find any thing wrong with that.

Iatiam

[bloddy1]

My PD is Aug 2010. Thru and Thru EB2-I guy. When I reached out to my firm's lawyer they told me following

1. Perm doesn't need to be filed to downgrade
2. I-140 can't be filed in premium and may take 6-8 months for approval.
3. Once I-140 is filed/approved for EB3. I can't move back to EB-2. My only option is to stick with EB3.

So they told me think about it before making any call on downgrade

Firm in question is Fragoman

Any thoughts from why #3 is an issue, just in case for future if you have to move back to EB2 queue? Can you not use the same approved Perm/I-140. While not a short term issue but who knows the long term what happens?

[dev2010]

Any thoughts from why #3 is an, just in case for future you have to move back to EB2 queue? Can you not use the same approved Perm/I-140. While not a short term issue but who knows the long term what happens?

I think you should downgrade. Your date has a better chance through EB3 to become current. Also you have never filled I-1485 so you don't have that confusion as well. My case is also being handled by Fragomen. My PD is 2010 Oct. Currently perm is in process. Perm has EB2 requirements. Whenever it gets approved I will have to make a decision on EB2/EB3. I have a strong feeling it's going to be EB3.

[tenyearsgone]

I guess I don't get it.

I have shared this info here before - my attorney who is one of the leading ones in the US told that they are open for a downgrade. She indicated that it's possible to do it in premium as well. For the record I am an EB2 guy and never had an EB3 petition.

Iatiam

@Iatiam
Do you have a Perm filed from your current employer (if you have changed jobs on AC21)?

[iatiam]

@Iatiam
Do you have a Perm filed from your current employer (if you have changed jobs on AC21)?

No. I have changed jobs multiple times since getting my EAD in 2012

Iatiam

[tenyearsgone]

No. I have changed jobs multiple times since getting my EAD in 2012

Iatiam

I have also changed multiple times since. Would appreciate it if you can elaborate a bit more on what your attorney has suggested.

What is the process she is taking to move from Eb2 -> Eb3.. by sending some form/application to USCIS?
Has your current employer notified USCIS is some way that the I140 petitioner should be updated?

Thanks in advance.

[iatiam]

I have also changed multiple times since. Would appreciate it if you can elaborate a bit more on what your attorney has suggested.

What is the process she is taking to move from Eb2 -> Eb3.. by sending some form/application to USCIS?
Has your current employer notified USCIS is some way that the I140 petitioner should be updated?

Thanks in advance.

I don't know the details yet because I have not initiated action on my end. Unless EB3I FAD moves ahead, it does not make sense for me to do it

[GCdreamz]

Q1: After EB2 to EB3 downgrade by applying I140 only, can we go back to EB2? I assume "YES" but want to get others opinion too.

Q2: When I140 & I485 are Pending/In-process, can we travel outside the country?

Q3: If dependents have to travel outside the country when date is current and application was not submitted, can primary person submit I485 and do amendment for dependents?

[lville]

Quick question for all the gurus here

My PD EB2-I May 22, 2009

Should I downgrade to EB3 ? I really want to but scared to do so. ur input will help me make a decision.

Thank you

[tenyearsgone]

Quick question for all the gurus here

My PD EB2-I May 22, 2009

Should I downgrade to EB3 ? I really want to but scared to do so. ur input will help me make a decision.

Thank you

I would suggest to wait for 3 months before deciding (assuming that you have Perm and I-140 with current employer). With EB2, May 22 might just about make it in this FY. By April, if EB3 FAD moves ahead or is current for you, then it's worth downgrading than waiting potentially for another year.

[hope21]

Where did you get the info on so many people with 2007/2008 PDs waiting in EB3I?
The FAD for EB3I is 01MAR09 that means All the applications with PDs older than this date are in final process and are guaranteed to get the GC as soon as they clear the final action process.
There is NO inventory building concept since Jul'15 when Obama Admn. reformed the Visa Bulletin process.
You can't use the filing dates for inventory building but you can use those dates to take the application in advance and make the process smoother and efficient.
No more retrogressions with this reform that's the original intention of the Obama's EO.
So all the people who are filing in EB3I next month will be going to get the GCs in 8 months, they are not going to sit in inventory for 6 years like the applications received in 2012 inventory building.
In other words can you find anyone who filed the I-485 after Jul'15 and waiting for more than a year to get the GC. I don't think there is any such applicant exists unless he/she stuck in background check.
YT, EB2/EB3 is not entirely wrong in stating that FAD EB3/I folks from 2007/2008 are still waiting. And my friend YT, you are not entirely right in stating that EB3 folks who will apply next month are sure to get their GCs in 8 months.
Here are the reasons why I am stating this. I don't know whether you are following the recent scenarios/timelines. You know the FAD for EB3I is/was current since March/Apr of this year (2018). Most of those folks are still waiting for their GCs (only 30% of those have been greened, rest all are still waiting).Same case for EB1 India folks who are waiting since Apr/May after the interviews. And the reason is dates were retrogressed in the month of Aug/Sep 2018 for EB3I and EB2ROW folks and all the interviews were scheduled purposely during this time. All of them were told that they are pre-approved in their interviews by FOs and final approval will be done by NBC in first/second week of Oct when the dates will be current again. Guess what, its almost end of Dec and they are still waiting. Now that dates are current again since Oct 1st, most of the EB3I folks are still waiting and NBC is clearing the backlog for EB2ROW first (for some unsaid reasons) and who knows when they will approve EB3I cases in Jan or Feb ( or longer, who knows, that will be close to an year for EB3I current folks since March 2018) and keep in mind they were interviewed in Aug 2018.
Long story short, with EB2I (PD less than May 2010), there is no hassle of interviews and they will get approved as soon as they are current. For EB3I, they will have to undergo the process of interviews (and who knows again the interviews will be scheduled in the final months of the financial year during retrogression again purposely) which will delay the final approval/GC given to Indian folks. If you ask me, they will do all other processing/actions fast like EAD/RFE/finger printing (getting EAD will surely be a very good thing for some of the folks waiting). But for GC approval/getting GC in hand, they/USCIS will delay it for some reason or the other and make you jump through the hoops. Who knows whether USCIS has been advised under current administration to play this game of delaying purposely and misusing the Interviews scheduling not to hand over GCs to EB2I/EB3I folks so easily (as if waiting for 10+years was not enough)? Only time will tell..
Hope my observation is wrong (only time will tell) but wanted to share the story as getting GC in 8 months after filing might not be right (at least for this year/2018 as you were suggesting). We will see what happens in the future, hope EB3I folks don’t have to cross this final GC approval hurdle multiple times going through the vicious cycle of RFEs/medicals/retrogression in the last months and they get on spot approvals in the FOs itself in the interviews like it used to happen normally..

[maverickwild]

My PD is EB2 March 2010 , missed boat in 2012.
Talked to my company lawyer and they confirmed that i am eligible to file concurrent AOS with a new I-140 for EB3 ( Fragomen).
With the current pace i dont think i will get AOS opportunity for next 2 years , if i remain in EB2.
It sounds too good to be true after waiting for almost 9 years and coming close twice ( 2012 was with a new employer , 2015 visage fiasco).
I am taking the plunge this time :).

[YTeleven]

YT, EB2/EB3 is not entirely wrong in stating that FAD EB3/I folks from 2007/2008 are still waiting. And my friend YT, you are not entirely right in stating that EB3 folks who will apply next month are sure to get their GCs in 8 months.
Here are the reasons why I am stating this. I don't know whether you are following the recent scenarios/timelines. You know the FAD for EB3I is/was current since March/Apr of this year (2018). Most of those folks are still waiting for their GCs (only 30% of those have been greened, rest all are still waiting).Same case for EB1 India folks who are waiting since Apr/May after the interviews. And the reason is dates were retrogressed in the month of Aug/Sep 2018 for EB3I and EB2ROW folks and all the interviews were scheduled purposely during this time. All of them were told that they are pre-approved in their interviews by FOs and final approval will be done by NBC in first/second week of Oct when the dates will be current again. Guess what, its almost end of Dec and they are still waiting. Now that dates are current again since Oct 1st, most of the EB3I folks are still waiting and NBC is clearing the backlog for EB2ROW first (for some unsaid reasons) and who knows when they will approve EB3I cases in Jan or Feb ( or longer, who knows, that will be close to an year for EB3I current folks since March 2018) and keep in mind they were interviewed in Aug 2018.
Long story short, with EB2I (PD less than May 2010), there is no hassle of interviews and they will get approved as soon as they are current. For EB3I, they will have to undergo the process of interviews (and who knows again the interviews will be scheduled in the final months of the financial year during retrogression again purposely) which will delay the final approval/GC given to Indian folks. If you ask me, they will do all other processing/actions fast like EAD/RFE/finger printing (getting EAD will surely be a very good thing for some of the folks waiting). But for GC approval/getting GC in hand, they/USCIS will delay it for some reason or the other and make you jump through the hoops. Who knows whether USCIS has been advised under current administration to play this game of delaying purposely and misusing the Interviews scheduling not to hand over GCs to EB2I/EB3I folks so easily (as if waiting for 10+years was not enough)? Only time will tell..
Hope my observation is wrong (only time will tell) but wanted to share the story as getting GC in 8 months after filing might not be right (at least for this year/2018 as you were suggesting). We will see what happens in the future, hope EB3I folks don’t have to cross this final GC approval hurdle multiple times going through the vicious cycle of RFEs/medicals/retrogression in the last months and they get on spot approvals in the FOs itself in the interviews like it used to happen normally..

Hope21,
Nice long post on the reality side. Appreciate your time.
I'm not saying EB2/EB3 is wrong it was just a follow up question to understand if there is any other kind of a source exists to get that data.
I don't trust track it data personally, applying random multipliers to that data is kind of assuming something which makes it unreliable.
Regarding people waiting with 2007/2008 PDs, I don't believe it.. if that is true then we can't predict EB3I moving to 2010/2011 in next 9 months. Both facts can't be true at the same time..
If there are some hand full of 2007 people still waiting with that PDs may be its just the processing delay of one's case.
Regarding 8 months figure its just an average number.. in reality it could be less or more than that. I wanted to emphasis that the current EB3I filings are NOT for building inventory but they will be current for many more months to come and they eventually get the GCs.
That implies to say EB3I dates will NOT retrogress anytime sooner. In my opinion EB3I queue is an empty queue and there is NO mechanism for inventory building since July 2015 VISA reform.

[Prabhas]

Hope21,
Nice long post on the reality side. Appreciate your time.
I'm not saying EB2/EB3 is wrong it was just a follow up question to understand if there is any other kind of a source exists to get that data.
I don't trust track it data personally, applying random multipliers to that data is kind of assuming something which makes it unreliable.
Regarding people waiting with 2007/2008 PDs, I don't believe it.. if that is true then we can't predict EB3I moving to 2010/2011 in next 9 months. Both facts can't be true at the same time..
If there are some hand full of 2007 people still waiting with that PDs may be its just the processing delay of one's case.
Regarding 8 months figure its just an average number.. in reality it could be less or more than that. I wanted to emphasis that the current EB3I filings are NOT for building inventory but they will be current for many more months to come and they eventually get the GCs.
That implies to say EB3I dates will NOT retrogress anytime sooner. In my opinion EB3I queue is an empty queue and there is NO mechanism for inventory building since July 2015 VISA reform.

YT- EB3 Folks after July-2009 never had a chance to file for EAD through porting to EB2 after the initial movement of EB2 dates to May-2010. I am assuming there will be a quite a chunk of these people(atleast 6000 incl families) waiting to apply for EAD and now that the dates moved upto April-2010 , I believe this will give USCIS/DOS some visibility on how to progress further with the EB3 dates. Although I would love what you are predicting , this unknown group could spin the things a bit. Remember back in 2009 no employer was ready to file in EB2 (due to recession and audits) and most of the people ended in EB3 that specific year and first of quarter of 2010 and EB2 picked up again later on.

[hope21]

Hope21,
Nice long post on the reality side. Appreciate your time.
I'm not saying EB2/EB3 is wrong it was just a follow up question to understand if there is any other kind of a source exists to get that data.
I don't trust track it data personally, applying random multipliers to that data is kind of assuming something which makes it unreliable.
Regarding people waiting with 2007/2008 PDs, I don't believe it.. if that is true then we can't predict EB3I moving to 2010/2011 in next 9 months. Both facts can't be true at the same time..
If there are some hand full of 2007 people still waiting with that PDs may be its just the processing delay of one's case.
Regarding 8 months figure its just an average number.. in reality it could be less or more than that. I wanted to emphasis that the current EB3I filings are NOT for building inventory but they will be current for many more months to come and they eventually get the GCs.
That implies to say EB3I dates will NOT retrogress anytime sooner. In my opinion EB3I queue is an empty queue and there is NO mechanism for inventory building since July 2015 VISA reform.

Likewise YT, thanks for your detailed reply. More or less we are in agreement – very few disagreements:

1) I don't trust track it data personally, applying random multipliers to that data is kind of assuming something which makes it unreliable. –[Hope 21] I agree.

2) Regarding 8 months figure its just an average number.. in reality it could be less or more than that. I wanted to emphasis that the current EB3I filings are NOT for building inventory but they will be current for many more months to come and they eventually get the GCs. – [Hope 21] - Good that you agree on this, what I am stating is it will not necessarily be within 8 months from filing and it may take upto an year or a little more going forward purposely or on circumstantial basis.

3) That implies to say EB3I dates will NOT retrogress anytime sooner. In my opinion EB3I queue is an empty queue and there is NO mechanism for inventory building since July 2015 VISA reform. [Hope 21] - I agree with you 100%, this reform was great and has helped dates not to retrogress more often and now there is no need for inventory build up as you suggested.

4) Regarding people waiting with 2007/2008 PDs, I don't believe it.. if that is true then we can't predict EB3I moving to 2010/2011 in next 9 months. Both facts can't be true at the same time..
If there are some hand full of 2007 people still waiting with that PDs may be its just the processing delay of one's case.
[Hope21] – This is where I disagree with you. Firstly you are also agreeing that getting GC might take a little longer than eight months in point 2, after filing for EB3I folks. Then why are you saying that you dont agree that people with 2007/2008 PDs are waiting since March 2018. Trust me, these are not handful and I am not sure whether this year was one-off year/scenario in which there were some miscalculation on visa front, or it was a made up scenario, otherwise I dont see any reason for most of the EB3I folks who were interviewed in Aug 2018 and were told that they will get their GC in first week of Oct by FOs. For them, USCIS does not have enough staff to give the final approval (when FOs have already verified everything and their Background check was already done). Thats the reason, I stated only time will tell whether it might take upto one year after filing after FAD is current or more than one year for EB3I folks (if USCIS continues to do these kind of things going forward). Again, I don't want to scare anyone that this will surely happen going forward, I am just saying that it can happen in future also, because it happened in this year/2018 purposely or because of circumstances.

[iatiam]

YT,

If the dates will not retrogress then why are you discounting the impact of downporting?

Iatiam

[maverickwild]

Just wonder why did you miss the boat in 2012? Is it because job change?
right , changed job in dec 2011 , never expected PD to move 2 years in 3 months.

[akil2k8]

Hello Gurus,

I need your help in making decision! Priority date is Jan 30, 2011 EB2-I and working for the same employer. Is it a good idea to downgrade to EB3-I? In a worst scenario can I go back to EB2-I with the same employer, and apply I485? Or use the already approved I485 in EB3-I and move to EB2-I if the dates become current(FAD)?


Thanks in advance.

Akil

[mrperfect]

Gurus.. Can we expect 485 Inventory anytime soon/Do you guys think CO may skip one quarter and just release them in jan 2019.. Looks like he really enjoys the chaos and confusion to cover up his incompetent actions.

[YTeleven]

YT,

If the dates will not retrogress then why are you discounting the impact of downporting?

Iatiam

I'm NOT discounting the impact of downward porting.
I'm predicting there will be severe resistance to downward porting in the near future.
I don't know how to define this resistance but it will be in various forms & circumstances which will ultimately obstruct the downward porting.
Specifically for the EB2I applicants whose PDs are between 01APR2009 to 01APR2010. These applicants make up huge demand for EB2India VISAs and they have to wait for next 4 years if they depend only on EB2India VISA supply.
If they can't make it into EB3I queue then EB3I FD will move forward beyond 01APR2010 very soon with 7K+/YR VISA supply.

[YTeleven]

I don't know the details yet because I have not initiated action on my end. Unless EB3I FAD moves ahead, it does not make sense for me to do it

Iatiam,
Don't take it as offense but why do you think it doesn't make sense to downward porting now instead of waiting till the EB3I FAD moves beyond your PD.
I can understand the risk involved but there is a hidden reward by doing that now. If the EB3I FADs moves forward as predicted in next 3 months by that time your downward process completes then you will get the GC faster right I can see at least 2 other users from this forum : iville & tenyearsgone in same situation.
Three of you wanted to wait and watch mode instead of filling the downward petition ASAP and take a risk.
This is what I'm saying, it is a one form of resistance to downward porting. Likewise many other people are not initiating the downward porting petitions that's make the EB3I FDs will move forward.
CO also tactically set the EB3I FAD lesser than EB2I FAD so that the downward porting(like yours) will be in control.
But he can't hold that date for long.. at some point in future he has to advance that date beyond the EB2I FAD.

[redsox2009]

Here is the 2018 November DOS data.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
56
35
00
00
13
03
39
146


EB2
14
05
05
16
134
01
147
322



EB3
017
150
014
389
049
004
616
1239


EB4
00
25
00
05
00
01
119
150


EB5
133
027
000
002
014
047
091
314


Total
220
242
019
412
210
056
1012
2171

[iatiam]

Iatiam,
Don't take it as offense but why do you think it doesn't make sense to downward porting now instead of waiting till the EB3I FAD moves beyond your PD.
I can understand the risk involved but there is a hidden reward by doing that now. If the EB3I FADs moves forward as predicted in next 3 months by that time your downward process completes then you will get the GC faster right I can see at least 2 other users from this forum : iville & tenyearsgone in same situation.
Three of you wanted to wait and watch mode instead of filling the downward petition ASAP and take a risk.
This is what I'm saying, it is a one form of resistance to downward porting. Likewise many other people are not initiating the downward porting petitions that's make the EB3I FDs will move forward.
CO also tactically set the EB3I FAD lesser than EB2I FAD so that the downward porting(like yours) will be in control.
But he can't hold that date for long.. at some point in future he has to advance that date beyond the EB2I FAD.

YT,

It's a fair question. The simple answer is, I want to be sure that the FAD does indeed move ahead. I know it's been widely predicted but I want to be really sure of it. Also, I was promised a premium filing by the lawyer. If this is true, the turnaround time to file will be short. For example, if the VB is released in the second week of a month, it gives six to seven weeks to prepare and approve I140. Lastly, I am not under any threat to lose my job, lose my H1B or planning to jump jobs right now. If any of these happen (maybe there is a recession in the next six months), I will move quickly.

Iatiam

[greenzone]

No. I have changed jobs multiple times since getting my EAD in 2012

Iatiam

Iatiam,

According to Issue#7 explained in https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-have-your-cake-eb-2-mechanics-downgrading-i-140-approval-webber/, people who changed employers are not eligible for downgrade. Thats what I believe stops many ppl from downgrading to EB3. Did you get assurance from your attorney that your case is eligible for downgrade?

thanks

[iatiam]

Iatiam,

According to Issue#7 explained in https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-have-your-cake-eb-2-mechanics-downgrading-i-140-approval-webber/, people who changed employers are not eligible for downgrade. Thats what I believe stops many ppl from downgrading to EB3. Did you get assurance from your attorney that your case is eligible for downgrade?

thanks

That's what I was promised. Whether or not they will review it later and change is something I would only know once I start the process.

Iatiam

[derekjbj]

Iatiam,

According to Issue#7 explained in https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-have-your-cake-eb-2-mechanics-downgrading-i-140-approval-webber/, people who changed employers are not eligible for downgrade. Thats what I believe stops many ppl from downgrading to EB3. Did you get assurance from your attorney that your case is eligible for downgrade?

thanks

I’d like to clarify that Issue 7 as explained by Webber is that downgrade option doesn’t exist for I-485 EAD holders who have changed employers.
I for one am EB2-I with PD Aug 13 2010 and haven’t had the opportunity to file for I-485 EAD.
But I have recently changed employers on H1B and intend to file in EB-3 with a ported PD of Aug 2010 !
Let me know your thoughts

[tenyearsgone]

Iatiam,
Don't take it as offense but why do you think it doesn't make sense to downward porting now instead of waiting till the EB3I FAD moves beyond your PD.
I can understand the risk involved but there is a hidden reward by doing that now. If the EB3I FADs moves forward as predicted in next 3 months by that time your downward process completes then you will get the GC faster right I can see at least 2 other users from this forum : iville & tenyearsgone in same situation.
Three of you wanted to wait and watch mode instead of filling the downward petition ASAP and take a risk.
This is what I'm saying, it is a one form of resistance to downward porting. Likewise many other people are not initiating the downward porting petitions that's make the EB3I FDs will move forward.
CO also tactically set the EB3I FAD lesser than EB2I FAD so that the downward porting(like yours) will be in control.
But he can't hold that date for long.. at some point in future he has to advance that date beyond the EB2I FAD.

No offense taken YT. I have initiated discussions with the company attorney on this, but getting a new Perm takes some convincing. They themselves are researching options, but I am hoping to get more concrete advice from this forum as to whether this is really required. Hoping to hear from @Iatiam also on his attorney's solution next year.

With iville, I suggested to wait for 3 months only because his PD is very close (May 22) and assuming he already has a Perm and I140 with his current employer.

[tenyearsgone]

Iatiam,

According to Issue#7 explained in https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-have-your-cake-eb-2-mechanics-downgrading-i-140-approval-webber/, people who changed employers are not eligible for downgrade. Thats what I believe stops many ppl from downgrading to EB3. Did you get assurance from your attorney that your case is eligible for downgrade?

thanks

Thanks for this link! It is a good summarization of the considerations involved in the downgrade.

[gcwait]

I’d like to clarify that Issue 7 as explained by Webber is that downgrade option doesn’t exist for I-485 EAD holders who have changed employers.
I for one am EB2-I with PD Aug 13 2010 and haven’t had the opportunity to file for I-485 EAD.
But I have recently changed employers on H1B and intend to file in EB-3 with a ported PD of Aug 2010 !
Let me know your thoughts

There is no way you can file I140 based on a PERM from a different company, irrespective of whether you have EAD or not. PERM is specific to a company and a job offered by that company. If anyone has changed the company and intend to file I140 in EB3, then the new company has to file a new PERM in addition to EB3 I140. Another option is to have your old company file I140 in EB3 for the approved EB2 position.

[derekjbj]

There is no way you can file I140 based on a PERM from a different company, irrespective of whether you have EAD or not. PERM is specific to a company and a job offered by that company. If anyone has changed the company and intend to file I140 in EB3, then the new company has to file a new PERM in addition to EB3 I140. Another option is to have your old company file I140 in EB3 for the approved EB2 position.

Of course, I will be porting my Aug 2010 EB2 date to Eb3 via a new PERM with my current employer. My job description has changed quite a bit since the PERM in 2010

[drop2ocean]

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-have-your-cake-eb-2-mechanics-downgrading-i-140-approval-webber/



Issue#6 says its hard to file I-485 with receipt of I-140. How about concurrent filing of I-140 and I-485 part of a downgrade ? Is it possible or do we need to get the I-140 approved in EB3 before filing I-485.

[drop2ocean]

Any predictions for EB3-I FAD moving to June 2010 ?

[bikenlalan]

Issue#6 says its hard to file I-485 with receipt of I-140. How about concurrent filing of I-140 and I-485 part of a downgrade ? Is it possible or do we need to get the I-140 approved in EB3 before filing I-485.

You can file 140 and 485 concurrently. If your 140 is filed and pending, you cannot file 485 based on pending 140. It needs to be approved before you file 485.

[BigAnt]

Look like Eb3-India filing date would not be respected by USCIS in near future, shot term predictions are out --

"https://www.murthy.com/2018/12/20/january-2019-visa-bulletin-check-in-predictions-coming-in-february/"

[AceMan]

Any predictions for EB3-I FAD moving to June 2010 ?

According to Murthy, CO says that Uscis is going back to final action for February.

[BigAnt]

Aceman - I think, this is true to what you said earlier this week, "Filing date for Eb3-India would be stagnant for few months and then pick up in April but FD would move ahead".

Do you think your prediction is still valid after CO's short term prediction.

Due to less demand in Eb3-India, personally I think Feb 2019 visa bulletin would have 1 May 2010 as filing date for EB3-India irrespective of USCIS accept it or not.

[Dallas111]

Gurus, request your help. Lot of respect for this forum (Q, Spec, Aceman and others)

My PD is Oct, 2009. I have been on EAD since 2012 and changed employer in 2013. Based on my PD:
1. My employer may be ready to file a new Perm and I 140 in Eb3 if I push. Is there any risk in filing new perm and I140 in Eb3 to my existing EB2 application. Do you advise me to file in new Eb3 application.
2. How much time will perm and I 140 approval take (assuming I140 in premium processing and I am based at Dallas). After receiving Perm and I140, I485 will be new application or existing application:
3. What will be your prediction for me getting GC in both Eb2 and Eb3 categories.
4. A different question: I had got RFE in Sep 2018 for I 485-J. My current company had given I485-J. Its received by USCIS on Oct 5,2018 but its still not approved. Is it common or a cause of concern that I485-J is not approved in 2.5 months.

[derekjbj]

You can file 140 and 485 concurrently. If your 140 is filed and pending, you cannot file 485 based on pending 140. It needs to be approved before you file 485.

This defeats the whole purpose of concurrent filing !
What I think Webber means is that you can file 485 based on 140 receipt
Please clarify

[Progress]

PD is July 2013 on EB2. I work in Healthcare. When should I apply for Eb3 I140. 18 months to 24 months. Or could i apply when for both I 140 and Adjustment of status at the same time when the dates become current.

[derekjbj]

PD is July 2013 on EB2. I work in Healthcare. When should I apply for Eb3 I140. 18 months to 24 months. Or could i apply when for both I 140 and Adjustment of status at the same time when the dates become current.

July 2013 will take some time. Right now for EB3 , crossing 2011 should take atleast 2/3 years

[Progress]

When ever I speak to the lawyers - they say Eb1 is very hard.But recently reviewing this forum , i see so many folks on Eb1 with PD in 2017 or 18 etc. Is Eb1 success rate dependent on the lawyer apart from a very good application. Any insights would be appreciated.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Have a question. Does anyone know that if you are downgrading from EB2 to EB3 with same employer (PERM will be same), can a new EB3 I-140 be processed under premium processing or does it have to go through regular processing only?

[maverickwild]

This defeats the whole purpose of concurrent filing !
What I think Webber means is that you can file 485 based on 140 receipt
Please clarify

I think what he/she meant was if 140 is applied already ( stand-alone and not concurrently), you cannot add 485 till 140 is approved.

[Greentothemoon]

I am in similar situation. I am going to ask company's attory abt premium process. This is what one of the lawyer suggested on youtube discussion: 1st file i140 in regular process. once you receive receipt notice then convert to premium process. Becoz USCIS will not do premium process when we file I40 with old PERM and they could reject premium. Let me know if you hear anything from your side.

[newyorker123]

Look like Eb3-India filing date would not be respected by USCIS in near future, shot term predictions are out --

"https://www.murthy.com/2018/12/20/january-2019-visa-bulletin-check-in-predictions-coming-in-february/"

We are dealing here with agencies which are in general very hostile. Anything positive to expect in the long run is futile IMHO :(

[YTeleven]

Have a question. Does anyone know that if you are downgrading from EB2 to EB3 with same employer (PERM will be same), can a new EB3 I-140 be processed under premium processing or does it have to go through regular processing only?

Jonty,

Check the Issue# 5 & 6 from this source:https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-have-your-cake-eb-2-mechanics-downgrading-i-140-approval-webber/

If I understood correctly the above link:
It is NOT guaranteed that USCIS will accept your filing of the downgrade petition with premium. Same case with concurrent filing of 485 with 140, assuming that your Eb2I PD is current in EB3I.
Alternate approach may be a 3 step process:
1) File 140 with out premium
2) Upgrade it to premium separately once you get the receipt notice (Not guaranteed in downgrade case but it worked per the above link)
3) File 485 once you get the 140 approval
looks like a lengthy process but can be timed to a 2 month time line to complete the filing process.

[AceMan]

Aceman - I think, this is true to what you said earlier this week, "Filing date for Eb3-India would be stagnant for few months and then pick up in April but FD would move ahead".

Do you think your prediction is still valid after CO's short term prediction.

Due to less demand in Eb3-India, personally I think Feb 2019 visa bulletin would have 1 May 2010 as filing date for EB3-India irrespective of USCIS accept it or not.


My assessment was based on the information at that time. CO's being the boss of DHS, has lot of additional information compared to rest of us in the forum. So his prediction definitely over rides mine :p.
I think CO will be holding on both EB3 dates behind EB2 for a little while more before they are ready to receive the avalanche of down grades. Even if USCIS is not respecting the FD, I think CO will still forward the FD.

Interestingly for EB3 India we are not seeing any GC approvals beyond May 2008 which was current in the May 2018 bulletin. This would imply the lead time from current to getting the GC is still over 6 months.

[srimurthy]

Gurus, request your help. Lot of respect for this forum (Q, Spec, Aceman and others)

2. How much time will perm and I 140 approval take (assuming I140 in premium processing and I am based at Dallas). After receiving Perm and I140, I485 will be new application or existing application:


It took 5 months for me in the first half of this year for just the PERM approval. Another two or three months before that for PWD and a month or so for advertisements. its a year before you file I-140.

[h1bh1bh1b]

It took 5 months for me in the first half of this year for just the PERM approval. Another two or three months before that for PWD and a month or so for advertisements. its a year before you file I-140.

Even after your date is current, EAD approval takes 6-8 months now at NBC.

[YTeleven]

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45447
Good read for holidays... nice compilation of all the publicly available data points for measuring backlogs.
But I don't see any new data point in this doc.. I've considered all the data point sources listed in this doc in my predictions so far..

[mar2010er]

Looks like 2019 is going to be a roller coaster ride for where the EB3 would get ahead of EB2 causing a huge spike in downgrades. At that point EB3 would be choked up again and EB2 would benefit, this would eventually result in an equilibrium where EB2 and EB3 are neck-to-neck and there is no real benefit to port up or down. This equilibrium date would depend on how fast the EB2 downgrades to EB3.

Expert, could someone take a stab to share their prediction on what that equilibrium date might be? This (even a rough range) would be a very valuable yard stick for a lot of folks to decide what to do.

[hiperm]

* EB3 final action date would go to Apr 2010 in few month.

* From May 2010 onwards , there would be lot of porting as EB2 folks never filed i485 and they will do downgrade to EB3 and concurrent i485. That make sense.

* EB2 folks who has already applied EAD, might already moved to different employer. So there is no option for them to downgrade until they start from PERM. That would take another 2 year. so no use

My guess is EB2 folks who applied uptil May 2010 during 2012 period, would be struck for next 4 years. Lot of chances for EB2 folks who has priority date from May 2010. They can benifit immediatley due to EB3 movement.

[waitin4gc]

True, it is going to be Simple Harmonic Motion.. once EB3 will go fast... then EB2... so on and so forth. The questions is which priority dates will get to file 485.. whether in EB3 or in EB2.

[realistic]

* EB3 final action date would go to Apr 2010 in few month.

* From May 2010 onwards , there would be lot of porting as EB2 folks never filed i485 and they will do downgrade to EB3 and concurrent i485. That make sense.

* EB2 folks who has already applied EAD, might already moved to different employer. So there is no option for them to downgrade until they start from PERM. That would take another 2 year. so no use

My guess is EB2 folks who applied uptil May 2010 during 2012 period, would be struck for next 4 years. Lot of chances for EB2 folks who has priority date from May 2010. They can benifit immediatley due to EB3 movement.

The benefit will be for EAD only.. Actual GCs allocation, who knows

[infotalk]

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45447
Good read for holidays... nice compilation of all the publicly available data points for measuring backlogs.
But I don't see any new data point in this doc.. I've considered all the data point sources listed in this doc in my predictions so far..

May 30 2009 PD EB2. What is the prediction ?

[swordfish380]

May 30 2009 PD EB2. What is the prediction ?

If they clear till the end of April 2009 this year May 2009 should be cleared by the end of next year 2020.

[AceMan]

Happy new year guys. Lets hope for the first time EB filers in both 2 and 3 from this decade start getting their GC this year onwards.

[gcvijay]

Happy New Year !!! Yes I hope all Eb2 INDIA and EB3 INDIA move significantly so everyone can benefit. Having said that did you check the USCIS Visa Bulletin Info: Does this mean they already have inventory Data and not publishing them?

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for January 2019. Based on current trends in inventory and visa use, USCIS anticipates that applicants in the employment-based preference categories will have to use the Final Action Dates chart as soon as February 2019.

[canada]

Happy new year guys. Lets hope for the first time EB filers in both 2 and 3 from this decade start getting their GC this year onwards.

The previous post from SWORDFISH predicts that EB2 will cross May 2009 by the end of 2020.

I remember you predicting it will cross August 2009 by the end of 2019. I am assuming financial year 2019 and not Immigration year starting from October 2019.

What is the reason?

Could you please explain?

[kb2013]

< >

[swordfish380]

The previous post from SWORDFISH predicts that EB2 will cross May 2009 by the end of 2020.

I remember you predicting it will cross August 2009 by the end of 2019. I am assuming financial year 2019 and not Immigration year starting from October 2019.

What is the reason?

Could you please explain?


There are 2100 485s for Apr and May of 2009.(per July inventory). Porting and prior months/years inventory approximately 1000. With no spill over you will clear Apr 2009 this fiscal.
With some spill over Aug 2009 is possible

[canada]

There are 2100 485s for Apr and May of 2009.(per July inventory). Porting and prior months/years inventory approximately 1000. With no spill over you will clear Apr 2009 this fiscal.
With some spill over Aug 2009 is possible

Thanks for replying
So last year there was no SO for EB2. How much SO is needed to clear August 2009?

[gcpursuit]

There are 2100 485s for Apr and May of 2009.(per July inventory). Porting and prior months/years inventory approximately 1000. With no spill over you will clear Apr 2009 this fiscal.
With some spill over Aug 2009 is possible

April 2009 has ~650 applications. Do you think they have already approved ~2200 applications in the first quarter? I was hoping we would get to mid May to end of May by end of FY2019. Not possible?

[AceMan]

The previous post from SWORDFISH predicts that EB2 will cross May 2009 by the end of 2020.

I remember you predicting it will cross August 2009 by the end of 2019. I am assuming financial year 2019 and not Immigration year starting from October 2019.

What is the reason?

Could you please explain?


For calendar year 2009 we had 10831 people in EB2 I by the last demand data in July 2018. The last quarter of FY 18 would have cleared around 800 +(assumption)

April , May 2009 got about 2840 which might take the entire year if there is no SO.

I factored in we might get about 2000 SO, and hence mentioned August 2009 for FY 2019 end.

However the movement for EB2 in the 2nd quarter did not materialize in January 19 bulletin. That would be the reason why Swordfish reduced his outlook. I think he meant May 2009 in 2019. 2020 looks like a typo.

[canada]

Thank you Aceman. So it’s all down to SO -otherwise I am probably looking at 2021

[AceMan]

Thank you Aceman. So it’s all down to SO -otherwise I am probably looking at 2021

I will take it yearly. We might still get some SO from EB2-ROW for FY 19.

[canada]

So let’s assume April, May 2009 are cleared in 2019, how many are waiting for June, July and August,2009? I want to get an idea if there is no spillover-how long this wait goes on

[gcvijay]

For calendar year 2009 we had 10831 people in EB2 I by the last demand data in July 2018. The last quarter of FY 18 would have cleared around 800 +(assumption)

April , May 2009 got about 2840 which might take the entire year if there is no SO.

I factored in we might get about 2000 SO, and hence mentioned August 2009 for FY 2019 end.

However the movement for EB2 in the 2nd quarter did not materialize in January 19 bulletin. That would be the reason why Swordfish reduced his outlook. I think he meant May 2009 in 2019. 2020 looks like a typo.


I believe spillover of 2000 wouldn't clear Aug 2009 and only clear June 2009.July and Aug 2009 will be cleared only with a spillover of 3000\4000.

[bluelabel]

Off-Topic:

Do Indian nationals travelling to USA via pairs on advance parole require French Airport Transit Visa? All the trackitt posts that suggest to get Airport Transit Visa are from 2017. I found following link which says since July 23, 2018, every Indian passport holder is permitted to go through the international zone of any airport in France without the need to present an Airport Transit Visa.

Can anyone who has traveled via pairs on advance parole recently confirm this? Many Thanks in advance!!

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/indians-no-longer-require-airport-transit-visa-in-france/

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/france-visa/airport-transit-visa/

[canada]

I believe spillover of 2000 wouldn't clear Aug 2009 and only clear June 2009.July and Aug 2009 will be cleared only with a spillover of 3000\4000.


Wow!!!. It gets depressing day by day, the more I know. I never filed EAD and can’t downgrade to EB3 as I am in medical profession

[AceMan]

So let’s assume April, May 2009 are cleared in 2019, how many are waiting for June, July and August,2009? I want to get an idea if there is no spillover-how long this wait goes on

With very little or no SO,
Sept 2019 ---> 1st Jun 2009
Sept 2020 ---> 1st Oct 2009
Sept 2021 ---> Mid Dec 2009
Sept 2022 ---> 1st Mar 2010
Sept 2023 ---> 1st July 2010

The calculation is very simple, remove close to 3000 for each FY from the demand data.

[mcmilers]

Thank you Aceman
These numbers are depressing. lets just hope we get atleast some spillover to move these dates along faster every year.

[canada]

With very little or no SO,
Sept 2019 ---> 1st Jun 2009
Sept 2020 ---> 1st Oct 2009
Sept 2021 ---> Mid Dec 2009
Sept 2022 ---> 1st Mar 2010
Sept 2023 ---> 1st July 2010

The calculation is very simple, remove close to 3000 for each FY from the demand data.


Thank you Aceman. I really appreciate you taking time to give this information.

To find demand data- is the following link right one to calculate?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_2018 .pdf

[AceMan]

Thank you Aceman. I really appreciate you taking time to give this information.

To find demand data- is the following link right one to calculate?

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_2018 .pdf

Yes, that would be the latest one albeit 6 months old.

[kb2013]

is there a report with number of pending consular processing cases grouped by country, month and year?

[imdeng]

I traveled through Paris a month back and can confirm that you DO NOT need transit visa to pass through CDG. You must be transiting out of Schengen area though - if you are connecting to another Schengen airport then you WILL need a Schengen visa.


Off-Topic:

Do Indian nationals travelling to USA via pairs on advance parole require French Airport Transit Visa? All the trackitt posts that suggest to get Airport Transit Visa are from 2017. I found following link which says since July 23, 2018, every Indian passport holder is permitted to go through the international zone of any airport in France without the need to present an Airport Transit Visa.

Can anyone who has traveled via pairs on advance parole recently confirm this? Many Thanks in advance!!

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/indians-no-longer-require-airport-transit-visa-in-france/

https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/france-visa/airport-transit-visa/

[infotalk]

If they clear till the end of April 2009 this year May 2009 should be cleared by the end of next year 2020.

That sounds very slow. They are already @ 1 April 2009 for EB2. Do you really think it will take them 1 year to clear 1 month for EB2 ?

[infotalk]

I will take it yearly. We might still get some SO from EB2-ROW for FY 19.

Historically for last 5 years what spillover did we get in EB2 category ?
Where do we get this spill over from ? Every year does the spill over come from the same category ?

[AceMan]

Historically for last 5 years what spillover did we get in EB2 category ?
Where do we get this spill over from ? Every year does the spill over come from the same category ?

EB3 India got nothing from EB2 for over a decade. Something if you count the upgrade from EB3 to EB2. The only SO available for the last 3-4 years is just horizontal SO.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports.html
=========EB3 , EB2
For 2010 ---> 3036, 19961
For 2011 ---> 4002, 23997
For 2012 ---> 2804, 19726
For 2013 ---> 7816, 17193
For 2014 ---> 3526, 23527
For 2015 ---> 7026, 7235
For 2016 ---> 4617, 3930
For 2017 ---> 6641, 2879

[qesehmk]

EB3 India got nothing from EB2 for over a decade.

EB3 stopped getting anything from EB2 when USCIS were forced to prioritize horizontal spillover over vertical. So yes this is true after about 2009/2008 timeframe.

p.s- Technically EB3 ROW did receive some EB2 visas a few years back for S Korea. That was outrageous and illegal but as always there wasn't much outcry over that.

[bluelabel]

I traveled through Paris a month back and can confirm that you DO NOT need transit visa to pass through CDG. You must be transiting out of Schengen area though - if you are connecting to another Schengen airport then you WILL need a Schengen visa.

Thank you. It helps.

[texas_]

Would be Visa Bulletin impacted due to partial shutdown?
I am sure USCIS works but not sure DHS visa bulletins be impacted or not??

[swordfish380]

Would be Visa Bulletin impacted due to partial shutdown?
I am sure USCIS works but not sure DHS visa bulletins be impacted or not??

USCIS is working. I received a text for submitting EAD renewal. On liter side, if they stopped conducting interviews,there will be spill over at the end of the year.

[YTeleven]

Request a recommendation for my situation.
PD is Jan 2010. Due to some clerical error and confusion with USCIS, 485 filed in 2012 was denied in 2013 and 2 years of appeal did not work.
Changed company in 2013, right before the 485 denial.
New company extended H1B and filed I-140 in EB2.
Now that filing date is current for me in EB3, attorney is willing to file EB3 I-140 and 485 concurrent filing, but have indicated they will not switch back and forth. So I will need to move to the EB3 queue permanently if they apply EB3 I-140.
Analyses and numbers appear to indicate low demand in EB3 and EB3 FAD is likely to move ahead fast.
Any unknowns that I need to take into consideration?
Should I take the plunge and switch to EB3?

No second thought. Just do it. To know more about EB3 India future.. go through my last 4 years updates in this forum.

[swordfish380]

EB3 stopped getting anything from EB2 when USCIS were forced to prioritize horizontal spillover over vertical. So yes this is true after about 2009/2008 timeframe.

p.s- Technically EB3 ROW did receive some EB2 visas a few years back for S Korea. That was outrageous and illegal but as always there wasn't much outcry over that.

Hello Q,
How credible are the pending inventory reports? The three reports which were published in 18 had numbers all over the place. What is your personal opinion about Julys report?

Instead of using USCIS report, With available data can we formulate pending inventory?

[kb2013]

No second thought. Just do it. To know more about EB3 India future.. go through my last 4 years updates in this forum.

Thanks!, for the advice. Will do. Been binge reading forums recently. We will likely be 2 less from the EB2 queue if all goes well.

[Nishant_imt]

Hi Q/Spec,

Do you guys think that EB2I dates are slated to move anytime soon? I have been waiting for my dates to get current for last 2 months and they are stuck at April 1st 2009. Mine is April 3rd. I am really anxious and miss going to India. I have been waiting to get this GC first before booking tix to india. Please throw some light. Greatly appreciate all you guys have done over ther years on this forum.

[Spectator]

Hello Q,
How credible are the pending inventory reports? The three reports which were published in 18 had numbers all over the place. What is your personal opinion about Julys report?

Instead of using USCIS report, With available data can we formulate pending inventory?

They are no longer credible at all for most Categories and Countries, since they appear to no longer show any cases pending that were submitted after March 7 2017 (or have a PD later that that date).

They no longer show cases pending at NBC or at the Field Offices.

Two other USCIS Reports show I-485 pending numbers.

a) Local Office and Service Center report. This does not report a figure for NBC.

b) All Forms Report. There's no information about what the number represents in terms of location.

The table below shows the figures from the 3 sources and the difference from the figure reported in the Inventory Report. The figure represents all pending I-485 for all categories and all Countries.

Date ------ Inventory -- Loc. Off - LOff Diff -- All Forms - AllFrm Diff
Apr-17 ------ 128,873 --- 138,347 ----- 9,474 ---- 138,404 ------- 9,531
Aug-17 ------ 144,223 --- 144,272 -------- 49 ---- 148,553 ------- 4,330
Oct-17 ------ 133,502 --- 139,768 ----- 6,266 ---- 149,382 ------ 15,880
Jan-18 ------ 103,675 --- 114,734 ---- 11,059 ---- 142,577 ------ 38,902
Apr-18 ------- 48,190 --- 115,084 ---- 66,894 ---- 162,675 ----- 114,485
Jul-18 ------- 29,471 ---- 76,868 ---- 47,397 ---- 149,179 ----- 119,708

You can make your own mind up as to whether the USCIS Inventory still has any value whatsoever.

[EB22010Dec]

With very little or no SO,
Sept 2019 ---> 1st Jun 2009
Sept 2020 ---> 1st Oct 2009
Sept 2021 ---> Mid Dec 2009
Sept 2022 ---> 1st Mar 2010
Sept 2023 ---> 1st July 2010

The calculation is very simple, remove close to 3000 for each FY from the demand data.


Aceman - can you shed some light on how Eb3 movement is going to be both filing date and FAD.

Your input is very valuable to us. THANK YOU.

[qesehmk]

Here are my additional 2 cents to Spec's wonderful answer.

The 485 inventory never was quite reliable. However now it is all the more unreliable because it only represents service centers and USCIS has again started old ways of keeping cases at field USCIS offices.

Having said that I do think it still is better to have incomplete picture than no picture.


They are no longer credible at all for most Categories and Countries, since they appear to no longer show any cases pending that were submitted after March 7 2017 (or have a PD later that that date).

They no longer show cases pending at NBC or at the Field Offices.

Two other USCIS Reports show I-485 pending numbers.

a) Local Office and Service Center report. This does not report a figure for NBC.

b) All Forms Report. There's no information about what the number represents in terms of location.

The table below shows the figures from the 3 sources and the difference from the figure reported in the Inventory Report. The figure represents all pending I-485 for all categories and all Countries.

Date ------ Inventory -- Loc. Off - LOff Diff -- All Forms - AllFrm Diff
Apr-17 ------ 128,873 --- 138,347 ----- 9,474 ---- 138,404 ------- 9,531
Aug-17 ------ 144,223 --- 144,272 -------- 49 ---- 148,553 ------- 4,330
Oct-17 ------ 133,502 --- 139,768 ----- 6,266 ---- 149,382 ------ 15,880
Jan-18 ------ 103,675 --- 114,734 ---- 11,059 ---- 142,577 ------ 38,902
Apr-18 ------- 48,190 --- 115,084 ---- 66,894 ---- 162,675 ----- 114,485
Jul-18 ------- 29,471 ---- 76,868 ---- 47,397 ---- 149,179 ----- 119,708

You can make your own mind up as to whether the USCIS Inventory still has any value whatsoever.

[qesehmk]

Nishant - I no longer do calculations. Sorry. I will let others answer this question.
Hi Q/Spec,

Do you guys think that EB2I dates are slated to move anytime soon? I have been waiting for my dates to get current for last 2 months and they are stuck at April 1st 2009. Mine is April 3rd. I am really anxious and miss going to India. I have been waiting to get this GC first before booking tix to india. Please throw some light. Greatly appreciate all you guys have done over ther years on this forum.

[YTeleven]

They are no longer credible at all for most Categories and Countries, since they appear to no longer show any cases pending that were submitted after March 7 2017 (or have a PD later that that date).

They no longer show cases pending at NBC or at the Field Offices.

Two other USCIS Reports show I-485 pending numbers.

a) Local Office and Service Center report. This does not report a figure for NBC.

b) All Forms Report. There's no information about what the number represents in terms of location.

The table below shows the figures from the 3 sources and the difference from the figure reported in the Inventory Report. The figure represents all pending I-485 for all categories and all Countries.

Date ------ Inventory -- Loc. Off - LOff Diff -- All Forms - AllFrm Diff
Apr-17 ------ 128,873 --- 138,347 ----- 9,474 ---- 138,404 ------- 9,531
Aug-17 ------ 144,223 --- 144,272 -------- 49 ---- 148,553 ------- 4,330
Oct-17 ------ 133,502 --- 139,768 ----- 6,266 ---- 149,382 ------ 15,880
Jan-18 ------ 103,675 --- 114,734 ---- 11,059 ---- 142,577 ------ 38,902
Apr-18 ------- 48,190 --- 115,084 ---- 66,894 ---- 162,675 ----- 114,485
Jul-18 ------- 29,471 ---- 76,868 ---- 47,397 ---- 149,179 ----- 119,708

You can make your own mind up as to whether the USCIS Inventory still has any value whatsoever.

Interestingly this CRS report (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45447) repeatedly says that those July'2018 Inventory numbers 29,471 represent administrative backlogs of applications that have been already allocated numerically limited visa numbers and are closest to completion.
See page No. 15 & 16. I don't believe that statement is a true statement as 63% of them (15,826) are EB2 India applications. In my opinion it is a big FLAW of this report.

Likewise I can find many other flaws and incorrect assumptions due to lack of public data. I'm not sure how can congress rely on such report for taking any action on legislative changes. Best way is to make CURRENT every category for every country for 2 months and generate the genuine demand and clear duplicate/triplicate applications and discard all inactive applications. This way all the reports get the reset and then congress can take a proper action on the issues based on correct reports.

[kb2013]

Knowing that the data available for predictions is not reliable, can we be still be certain that EB3 FAD will move significantly ahead of EB2? Do we have sufficient credible data to come to that conclusion?

[skpanda]

Interestingly this CRS report (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45447) repeatedly says that those July'2018 Inventory numbers 29,471 represent administrative backlogs of applications that have been already allocated numerically limited visa numbers and are closest to completion.
See page No. 15 & 16. I don't believe that statement is a true statement as 63% of them (15,826) are EB2 India applications. In my opinion it is a big FLAW of this report.

Likewise I can find many other flaws and incorrect assumptions due to lack of public data. I'm not sure how can congress rely on such report for taking any action on legislative changes. Best way is to make CURRENT every category for every country for 2 months and generate the genuine demand and clear duplicate/triplicate applications and discard all inactive applications. This way all the reports get the reset and then congress can take a proper action on the issues based on correct reports.

Thats what happened in july 2007. I dont think it will happen again.

[skpanda]

Interestingly this CRS report (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45447) repeatedly says that those July'2018 Inventory numbers 29,471 represent administrative backlogs of applications that have been already allocated numerically limited visa numbers and are closest to completion.
See page No. 15 & 16. I don't believe that statement is a true statement as 63% of them (15,826) are EB2 India applications. In my opinion it is a big FLAW of this report.

Likewise I can find many other flaws and incorrect assumptions due to lack of public data. I'm not sure how can congress rely on such report for taking any action on legislative changes. Best way is to make CURRENT every category for every country for 2 months and generate the genuine demand and clear duplicate/triplicate applications and discard all inactive applications. This way all the reports get the reset and then congress can take a proper action on the issues based on correct reports.

Thats what happened in july 2007. I dont think it will happen again.

[AceMan]

Visa statistics for 2018 released.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2018.html

India - 10967, 4096, 6112

Grand Totals 39,521(EB1) 40,641(2) 39,966(3) 9,753(4)

[gcvijay]

Visa statistics for 2018 released.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2018.html

India - 10967, 4096, 6112

Grand Totals 39,521(EB1) 40,641(2) 39,966(3) 9,753(4)

Did EB2 INDIA receive spillover of mere 1096 only for FY 2018? If that is the spillover we will receive this year where would EB2 INDIA land?

[delguy]

Visa statistics for 2018 released.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2018.html

India - 10967, 4096, 6112

Grand Totals 39,521(EB1) 40,641(2) 39,966(3) 9,753(4)

How did China get 4312 in EB3 when their date is more advanced than India's EB3? Also Phillipines got 6588 in EB3 but I assume that is because they used less in category 1 and 2.

[iatiam]

Did EB2 INDIA receive spillover of mere 1096 only for FY 2018? If that is the spillover we will receive this year where would EB2 INDIA land?

This should clear up to end of June 2009. Assumes zero porting, zero down grades.

Iatiam

[rocketfast]

How did China get 4312 in EB3 when their date is more advanced than India's EB3? Also Phillipines got 6588 in EB3 but I assume that is because they used less in category 1 and 2.

Some poster had predicted this last year. Because there was interview mandate and Eb3-I inventory (that did not need interviews) got exhausted, the beneficiary was China EB3.

[AceMan]

Did EB2 INDIA receive spillover of mere 1096 only for FY 2018? If that is the spillover we will receive this year where would EB2 INDIA land?

EB2 got 601 more visas for FY 2018 and India got 1292 more than allocated 2804.
I think the 600 extra visas, EB2 got was because of interview mandate and Eb1, EB3 unable to meet the numbers. This may not be the case in FY 2019.

[gcvijay]

So you think we may receive more than 1292 SO visas this FY?

[AceMan]

So you think we may receive more than 1292 SO visas this FY?

It all depends on EB2 demand from ROW. Nothing from EB1, only horizontal for FY 2019. Too difficult to predict, 4000-5000 might be best case for EB2 I

[YTeleven]

Visa statistics for 2018 released.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/annual-reports/report-of-the-visa-office-2018.html

India - 10967, 4096, 6112

Grand Totals 39,521(EB1) 40,641(2) 39,966(3) 9,753(4)

No surprises, last year at this time we expected 10K+ visas (EB2India plus EB3India together) based on FY17 figures here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58922#post58922
We can safely predict same for next year too i.e. FY19 10K+ (3k+ plus 6k+) for both EB2&3India together.
In-fact we can predict same for next 5 years that was the basis for this post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=60972#post60972

[skpanda]

No surprises, last year at this time we expected 10K+ visas (EB2India plus EB3India together) based on FY17 figures here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58922#post58922
We can safely predict same for next year too i.e. FY19 10K+ (3k+ plus 6k+) for both EB2&3India together.
In-fact we can predict same for next 5 years that was the basis for this post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=60972#post60972

Thanks YT... your predictions have been very accurate over the last few years. Great job!

Any reason why only 6K+ for EB3-I? I was under the impression that there is very less demand in EB3ROW and there is substantial spillover available for EB3-I.

Is there any numbers that is prompting you to reach this conclusion?

[iatiam]

No surprises, last year at this time we expected 10K+ visas (EB2India plus EB3India together) based on FY17 figures here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58922#post58922
We can safely predict same for next year too i.e. FY19 10K+ (3k+ plus 6k+) for both EB2&3India together.
In-fact we can predict same for next 5 years that was the basis for this post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=60972#post60972

Not too bad considering we are out of the days of retrogression. And no more porting and potential slow down in EB1C filings as well. Once we get over the May and June 2009 bumps the flow show be more straigtforward.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

I've put a breakdown of the DOS Visa Statistics here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2725-FY2018-DOS-Visa-Report).

[YTeleven]

It all depends on EB2 demand from ROW. Nothing from EB1, only horizontal for FY 2019. Too difficult to predict, 4000-5000 might be best case for EB2 I

I might agree with AceMan if the recession keyword lives in the news through out the FY19.

[EB22010Dec]

I might agree with AceMan if the recession keyword lives in the news through out the FY19.

Aceman/YTeleven - can you shed some light on how Eb3 movement is going to be both filing date and FAD.

Your input is very valuable to us. THANK YOU.

[YTeleven]

I've put a breakdown of the DOS Visa Statistics here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2725-FY2018-DOS-Visa-Report).

Thanks Spec for the data.
Only comment I would like to make is Philippines may not get 7,059 visas in FY19 as their backlogs got depleted and they are approaching to the current in EB3.
That will be a good opportunity for EB3India to get more than what they got in FY18.

[EB3Iwaiting]

I have a question outside the topic of this thread and admin can delete this or move this once I have gotten a reply but I feel this is the place which can give me the correct answer as many of the old timers were once on pending AOS status and had EAD/AP themselves.

My question is: What happens to I-94 when we move to pending AOS? Unless I leave the country and re-enter using the AP, what happens to the I-94?

[ak7419]

Pretty disappointed that EB2I Sep 2009 keeps getting pushed to next fiscal year. Started hoping in 2014 then 2016 then 2017 then 2018 then 2019 now 2020.

[AceMan]

No surprises, last year at this time we expected 10K+ visas (EB2India plus EB3India together) based on FY17 figures here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58922#post58922
We can safely predict same for next year too i.e. FY19 10K+ (3k+ plus 6k+) for both EB2&3India together.
In-fact we can predict same for next 5 years that was the basis for this post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=60972#post60972


True.
Also from FY 19, the true down graders from EB2 will come into play, once the EB3 dates move past May 2010. Currently we have very limited people who are on the fence waiting for what happens with other people who are porting.

[ferric]

EB2 PD dec 2009, no EAD or 485 filed ever - should I downgrade ASAP or wait for concurrent 140/485 so that I can get EAD if PD becomes current in the coming months final action date?

[Nishant_imt]

Thanks much anyways, and for everything over the years.


Nishant - I no longer do calculations. Sorry. I will let others answer this question.

[mjaggu]

Gurus
I am new to this forum.
PD - March 2010 EB2I (upgraded from EB3I from a different employer).
Never filed AOS before.
Can someone recommend if I should downgrade and do concurrent filing this month or should I stay put?
I have been naive about the numbers and the SO process until the filing date became current and now am trying to understand the process and figure out what I should do.

[YTeleven]

Thanks YT... your predictions have been very accurate over the last few years. Great job!

Any reason why only 6K+ for EB3-I? I was under the impression that there is very less demand in EB3ROW and there is substantial spillover available for EB3-I.

Is there any numbers that is prompting you to reach this conclusion?

Thanks SK.
All I would think is the Philippines backlogs in EB3 Category. Which consumes the major portion of the EB3 quota.
Unless its get cleared off we can't expect much SO to EB3 India.
In last 5 years Philippines got cleared 10 years of backlogs and on the edge of becoming current..
Hopefully we will see from this year onwards its the India's turn to consume more Visas than Philippines in EB3 category and move faster than EB2india.

[swordfish380]

They are no longer credible at all for most Categories and Countries, since they appear to no longer show any cases pending that were submitted after March 7 2017 (or have a PD later that that date).

They no longer show cases pending at NBC or at the Field Offices.

Two other USCIS Reports show I-485 pending numbers.

a) Local Office and Service Center report. This does not report a figure for NBC.

b) All Forms Report. There's no information about what the number represents in terms of location.

The table below shows the figures from the 3 sources and the difference from the figure reported in the Inventory Report. The figure represents all pending I-485 for all categories and all Countries.

Date ------ Inventory -- Loc. Off - LOff Diff -- All Forms - AllFrm Diff
Apr-17 ------ 128,873 --- 138,347 ----- 9,474 ---- 138,404 ------- 9,531
Aug-17 ------ 144,223 --- 144,272 -------- 49 ---- 148,553 ------- 4,330
Oct-17 ------ 133,502 --- 139,768 ----- 6,266 ---- 149,382 ------ 15,880
Jan-18 ------ 103,675 --- 114,734 ---- 11,059 ---- 142,577 ------ 38,902
Apr-18 ------- 48,190 --- 115,084 ---- 66,894 ---- 162,675 ----- 114,485
Jul-18 ------- 29,471 ---- 76,868 ---- 47,397 ---- 149,179 ----- 119,708

You can make your own mind up as to whether the USCIS Inventory still has any value whatsoever.



Thank you Spec and Q.


This means inventory report is just of nonuse for prediction.

[skpanda]

Thanks SK.
All I would think is the Philippines backlogs in EB3 Category. Which consumes the major portion of the EB3 quota.
Unless its get cleared off we can't expect much SO to EB3 India.
In last 5 years Philippines got cleared 10 years of backlogs and on the edge of becoming current..
Hopefully we will see from this year onwards its the India's turn to consume more Visas than Philippines in EB3 category and move faster than EB2india.

Thanks... my PD is Dec 2010 EB2I. I am watching EB3I closely so I can downgrade in next few months. It's been a crazy ride with 14 years in the country and not even an EAD to show for it.

[EB22010Dec]

Thanks... my PD is Dec 2010 EB2I. I am watching EB3I closely so I can downgrade in next few months. It's been a crazy ride with 14 years in the country and not even an EAD to show for it.


Hello SK - My PD is Dec 2010 as well, I am very less optimistic of dates moving beyond that date in the next 2 - 3 years. Why do you think it would be the case?

[YTeleven]

Gurus
I am new to this forum.
PD - March 2010 EB2I (upgraded from EB3I from a different employer).
Never filed AOS before.
Can someone recommend if I should downgrade and do concurrent filing this month or should I stay put?
I have been naive about the numbers and the SO process until the filing date became current and now am trying to understand the process and figure out what I should do.

Consult a high profile Lawyer who can do concurrent filing before 31st Jan. Don't miss the opportunity.
You might get another opportunity in less than an year but you should not miss the first chance in immigration.

[YTeleven]

Gurus
I am new to this forum.
PD - March 2010 EB2I (upgraded from EB3I from a different employer).
Never filed AOS before.
Can someone recommend if I should downgrade and do concurrent filing this month or should I stay put?
I have been naive about the numbers and the SO process until the filing date became current and now am trying to understand the process and figure out what I should do.

Don't wait for FAD. Consult a high profile Lawyer who can do concurrent filing before 31st Jan. Don't miss the opportunity.

[YTeleven]

Thanks... my PD is Dec 2010 EB2I. I am watching EB3I closely so I can downgrade in next few months. It's been a crazy ride with 14 years in the country and not even an EAD to show for it.

I know you missed the AOS filing during 2015 fiasco. probably it was happened for a reason.. now you are in a better position to downgrade and get the GC faster. good luck to you for this time.

[YTeleven]

Aceman/YTeleven - can you shed some light on how Eb3 movement is going to be both filing date and FAD.

Your input is very valuable to us. THANK YOU.

Don't wait for FAD. File it when the FD becomes current in next 6 to 9 months.

[YTeleven]

Knowing that the data available for predictions is not reliable, can we be still be certain that EB3 FAD will move significantly ahead of EB2? Do we have sufficient credible data to come to that conclusion?

I was talking about CRS report which has flaws in my opinion. We have enough data to predict that EB2India will never catch-up with EB3India in next 5 years. So forget about FAD, use FD. USCIS can choose any date between FAD & FD. I'm predicting they will choose a date in between FAD & FD for EB3India in future to get as much demand as they can to meet the the supply of EB3 Visas.

[EB22010Dec]

Don't wait for FAD. File it when the FD becomes current in next 6 to 9 months.

You think filing date will cross 2010 dec in next 6-9
Months ?

[kb2013]

I was talking about CRS report which has flaws in my opinion. We have enough data to predict that EB2India will never catch-up with EB3India in next 5 years. So forget about FAD, use FD. USCIS can choose any date between FAD & FD. I'm predicting they will choose a date in between FAD & FD for EB3India in future to get as much demand as they can to meet the the supply of EB3 Visas.

Thanks for the reinforcement. Working with the attorney for concurrent filing. Will keep updated about the progress.

[mjaggu]

Consult a high profile Lawyer who can do concurrent filing before 31st Jan. Don't miss the opportunity.
You might get another opportunity in less than an year but you should not miss the first chance in immigration.

Really Appreciate the response. Will talk to my employer and will do the needful to work with an attorney.

[Airbender]

My PD is July29th, 2009 EB2. I have never been able to file EAD due to some poor circumstances. I was hoping i will be able to file 485 this year but now it seems that is a stretch. I am on fence to downgrade or not. Appreciate any advice.

[mar2010er]

Hi mjaggu -

I am on the same boat. I have contacted my attorney and working on the paperwork for downgrade at this moment. 485 could be filed concurrently. However, my attorney's office said it takes 4-6 weeks for them to prepare the case work. So I am not sure, if they would do it before the 31st Jan deadline.

[kb2013]

I read some forum posts that indicated that USCIS will not issue EAD,AP if they switch to FAD and if the FAD is not current when EAD/AP is being processed. Is this correct? Or, if I apply for 485, EAD, AP within the month FD is current, they will still issue EAD,AP even if FD or FAD is not current during processing?

[AceMan]

I read some forum posts that indicated that USCIS will not issue EAD,AP if they switch to FAD and if the FAD is not current when EAD/AP is being processed. Is this correct? Or, if I apply for 485, EAD, AP within the month FD is current, they will still issue EAD,AP even if FD or FAD is not current during processing?

This theory an outright bluff with no basis, only fear mongering. With 10 years delay, already it is easy for people in EB2 to fall prey for it. They don't want to torpedo their chances after waiting for long.

[mjaggu]

Hi mjaggu -

I am on the same boat. I have contacted my attorney and working on the paperwork for downgrade at this moment. 485 could be filed concurrently. However, my attorney's office said it takes 4-6 weeks for them to prepare the case work. So I am not sure, if they would do it before the 31st Jan deadline.

Hi mar2010er

I will talk to my employer and get hold of our attorney today, hopefully.
Best of Luck!