EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[AceMan]

I have receipt notice, priority date and notice date on my immigration approval notice.

I am not sure if you should reach out to your attorney and see if you can get it corrected, provided it is possible.

http://hammondlawgroup.com/healthcareblog/2015/01/19/can-nvc-gets-priority-date-wrong/

[rocketfast]

Spec maintains a "Trackitt comparision" data - which gives us a historic multiplier factor from trackitt entries to actual approvals. The most recent is here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2703-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2018-vs-FY2017-vs-FY2016-vs-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013

The "multiplication factor" is anywhere between 20 to 30. As of today, looks like there are 140 "active" cases in EB3-I in Trackitt between Aug 2007 to Oct 2009.
So going by history, the total number of EB3-I between Aug 2007 to Oct 2009 could be anywhere between 2800 to 4200. Looks like we still have some run up of dates needed to have a demand of 6500 GCs for this year.

[excalibur123]

Spec maintains a "Trackitt comparision" data - which gives us a historic multiplier factor from trackitt entries to actual approvals. The most recent is here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2703-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2018-vs-FY2017-vs-FY2016-vs-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013

The "multiplication factor" is anywhere between 20 to 30. As of today, looks like there are 140 "active" cases in EB3-I in Trackitt between Aug 2007 to Oct 2009.
So going by history, the total number of EB3-I between Aug 2007 to Oct 2009 could be anywhere between 2800 to 4200. Looks like we still have some run up of dates needed to have a demand of 6500 GCs for this year.

Don’t count Downgraders out. So that may be it for dates.

[idliman]

Per New USCIS Policy effective 01NOV18, I-693 (Medicals) are valid for 2 years from the date surgeon signed it. Must be submitted within 60 days of Surgeon's signature.
https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/uscis-policy-manual-update



USCIS Policy Manual Update

USCIS is revising policy guidance for the validity period of Form I-693, Report of Medical Examination and Vaccination Record.

The updated policy, which goes into effect on Nov. 1, 2018, will require applicants to submit a Form I-693 that is signed by a civil surgeon no more than 60 days before filing the underlying application for an immigration benefit. The Form I-693 would remain valid for a two-year period following the date the civil surgeon signed it. As such, USCIS is retaining the current maximum two-year validity period of Form I-693, but calculating it in a different manner to both enhance operational efficiencies and reduce the number of requests to applicants for an updated Form I-693.

USCIS officers use Form I-693, Report of Medical Examination and Vaccination Record, to determine whether an applicant for an immigration benefit in the United States is inadmissible under the health-related grounds of inadmissibility. By specifying that the Form I-693 must be signed no more than 60 days before the applicant files the underlying application for which Form I-693 is required, the validity of the form is more closely tied to the timing of the underlying application.

Additionally, requiring submission of a Form I-693 that was signed no more than 60 days before the date the underlying application was filed may, in some cases, maximize the period of time Form I-693 will be valid while the underlying application is under USCIS review. Officers will still have the discretion, as they have always had, to request a new Form I-693 if they have reason to believe an applicant may be inadmissible on the health-related grounds. Delays in adjudicating the underlying application will also be reduced if fewer requests for updated Forms I-693 are necessary.

Please see the Policy Alert (PDF) for more detailed information regarding this update and how USCIS will handle a Form I-693 submitted before Nov. 1, 2018.

Visit the Policy Manual for Comment page for more information on stakeholder review and comments, which are due by Oct. 29, 2018.

[newyorker123]

Wait - is that something positive from USCIS ? First time in this Presidency perhaps ?

[AceMan]

Wait - is that something positive from USCIS ? First time in this Presidency perhaps ?

On January 2009 EB3 I PD -> 15OCT01
On January 2017 EB3 I PD -> 15MAR05 (8 years -> 3 years and 6 months movement).

=>H4EAD in the registry since 2010, a totally diluted version delivered in 2015 absolutely no use for aging out kids going to College, some benefit for spouses, I140-EAD lot of fanfare and efforts to modernize resulting in nothing.

On August 2018 EB3 I PD -> 01JAN09 (19 months -> 3 years and 9 and 1/2 months movement)


Just to say perspective of Presidency can vary among individuals.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Per New USCIS Policy effective 01NOV18, I-693 (Medicals) are valid for 2 years from the date surgeon signed it. Must be submitted within 60 days of Surgeon's signature.
https://www.uscis.gov/news/alerts/uscis-policy-manual-update

No, it does not mean that at all. It means that the I-693 should not be dated 60 days prior to the filing of I-485. There is a huge difference. For those on EAD, the 2 yr validity is useful and the 60 day clause is irrelevant because they have already filed their AOS. For those who are filing AOS fresh, it means that they need to file AOS with I-693 within 60 days of the date of I-693.

[idliman]

No, it does not mean that at all. It means that the I-693 should not be dated 60 days prior to the filing of I-485. There is a huge difference. For those on EAD, the 2 yr validity is useful and the 60 day clause is irrelevant because they have already filed their AOS. For those who are filing AOS fresh, it means that they need to file AOS with I-693 within 60 days of the date of I-693.

Sorry I am not good at "legalese". I said, "(Medicals) are valid for 2 years from the date surgeon signed it" and "must be submitted within 60 days of Surgeon's signature". I believe this is correct for people on EAD and already in I485 Queue. Is there something that I misinterpreted?

[march1612]

No, it does not mean that at all. It means that the I-693 should not be dated 60 days prior to the filing of I-485. There is a huge difference. For those on EAD, the 2 yr validity is useful and the 60 day clause is irrelevant because they have already filed their AOS. For those who are filing AOS fresh, it means that they need to file AOS with I-693 within 60 days of the date of I-693.

I am not sure how the 2 year validity is useful? Wouldn't the medicals be expired when AOS is pending more than 2 years?

Having said that whether you are on EAD or H1B with AOS pending >2 years would expect an RFE from USCIS?

[aquatican]

The 2 year validity is useful because It is one more year than the 1 year validity.


I am not sure how the 2 year validity is useful? Wouldn't the medicals be expired when AOS is pending more than 2 years?

Having said that whether you are on EAD or H1B with AOS pending >2 years would expect an RFE from USCIS?

[srimurthy]

On January 2009 EB3 I PD -> 15OCT01
On January 2017 EB3 I PD -> 15MAR05 (8 years -> 3 years and 6 months movement).

=>H4EAD in the registry since 2010, a totally diluted version delivered in 2015 absolutely no use for aging out kids going to College, some benefit for spouses, I140-EAD lot of fanfare and efforts to modernize resulting in nothing.

On August 2018 EB3 I PD -> 01JAN09 (19 months -> 3 years and 9 and 1/2 months movement)


Just to say perspective of Presidency can vary among individuals.
And the H4 EAD can be all but gone next year.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Sorry I am not good at "legalese". I said, "(Medicals) are valid for 2 years from the date surgeon signed it" and "must be submitted within 60 days of Surgeon's signature". I believe this is correct for people on EAD and already in I485 Queue. Is there something that I misinterpreted?

I just re-read the link and you are right, about the 60 day validity from signature. That was not there before.

[AceMan]

And the H4 EAD can be all but gone next year.

I would expect it to stay in the registry for 2 more years. The best line added to the rule making. Some US citizens "may" be benefited by this!!!

[Moveon]

I submitted my Medicals late September for the 485 RFE . Will that we valid for two years or will only those submitted after Nov 1st.
Thanks

[Immigo]

I would expect it to stay in the registry for 2 more years. The best line added to the rule making. Some US citizens "may" be benefited by this!!!

In our case, it is actually the opposite :) If the H4 EAD certainty was there, my wife would have started her dental clinic and employed 4-5 people. Instead, she is working as an associate and potentially taking a job from a US citizen.

[vyruss]

I submitted my Medicals late September for the 485 RFE . Will that we valid for two years or will only those submitted after Nov 1st.
Thanks

The medicals are valid for one year from the day you took the medicals. The clock starts the moment you leave the doctors office, not when USCIS receives it.

[harshrk]

I am not sure if you should reach out to your attorney and see if you can get it corrected, provided it is possible.

http://hammondlawgroup.com/healthcareblog/2015/01/19/can-nvc-gets-priority-date-wrong/

Hi AceMan

If you don't mind sparing few minutes to read my case and provide your 2 cents, it would really help.

My past employer (employer A) first applied my GC in EB3 (deliberately so that he can exploit me for more time, when he knew for my profile EB2 is the right category). After a lot of noise from my side, he agreed to file GC in EB2. Soon after that I joined employer B and he has filed my GC in EB2. My priority date is end of July 2010. I am currently working in EVC model. My question was what should I do in this situation?
1. Should I ask my current employer to file in Eb3 in anticipation of EB3 leap frogging ahead of EB2? The problem is most probably he may not agree at least now.
2. I have heard that when the date becomes correct one can actually do a concurrent filing of downgrading from EB2 to EB3 along with application for EAD+AP and GC. Is this even possible?
3. If my current employer does not agree to apply in EB3 and the date becomes current (for EB3) then what should I do? Would it be a safe option to have employer A apply my EB3 GC and on the side I continue working with employer B on H1? The only issue which I am worried about in this option is to produce the job offer for GC. My old employer would be willing to hire me but I guess if it is a EVC model then I would have to produce a client letter - is that a correct assessment.

Please provide your input whenever you have time.

Thanks in advance.

Cheers.

[Moveon]

The medicals are valid for one year from the day you took the medicals. The clock starts the moment you leave the doctors office, not when USCIS receives it.


@vyrus , I do realize that it is valid from the day the doctor signs it . When I submitted it the medicals were valid for 1 year. Now looks like it is valid for 2 for those who will submit in November. Will that be with retrospective effect . IOWs will mine be valid until Sept 2020 ?

[Spectator]

I have updated the PERM section (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) of the FACTS & DATA with the official PERM figures for FY2018.

The selected statistics can be found here (https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PerformanceData/2018/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY2018_Q4.pdf).

The full download can be found here (https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/performancedata.cfm).

[AceMan]

Hi AceMan

If you don't mind sparing few minutes to read my case and provide your 2 cents, it would really help.

My past employer (employer A) first applied my GC in EB3 (deliberately so that he can exploit me for more time, when he knew for my profile EB2 is the right category). After a lot of noise from my side, he agreed to file GC in EB2. Soon after that I joined employer B and he has filed my GC in EB2. My priority date is end of July 2010. I am currently working in EVC model. My question was what should I do in this situation?
1. Should I ask my current employer to file in Eb3 in anticipation of EB3 leap frogging ahead of EB2? The problem is most probably he may not agree at least now.
2. I have heard that when the date becomes correct one can actually do a concurrent filing of downgrading from EB2 to EB3 along with application for EAD+AP and GC. Is this even possible?
3. If my current employer does not agree to apply in EB3 and the date becomes current (for EB3) then what should I do? Would it be a safe option to have employer A apply my EB3 GC and on the side I continue working with employer B on H1? The only issue which I am worried about in this option is to produce the job offer for GC. My old employer would be willing to hire me but I guess if it is a EVC model then I would have to produce a client letter - is that a correct assessment.

Please provide your input whenever you have time.

Thanks in advance.

Cheers.

I am assuming that you have a good working relation with your prior employer.

1. Should I ask my current employer to file in Eb3 in anticipation of EB3 leap frogging ahead of EB2? The problem is most probably he may not agree at least now?
A. Yes, you can do that. But as the problem is with most of the employers are not keen to do that and attorney's are discouraging this at most of the companies I heard. So let us continue over this with your 2nd question.

2. I have heard that when the date becomes correct one can actually do a concurrent filing of downgrading from EB2 to EB3 along with application for EAD+AP and GC. Is this even possible?
A. Yes, you can do that too. In fact looking at the numbers, if you can get your current employer agree for downgrading, this would be really good. For this to work very effectively we need to get the premium processing which is being suspended currently, to be active again.

3. If my current employer does not agree to apply in EB3 and the date becomes current (for EB3) then what should I do? Would it be a safe option to have employer A apply my EB3 GC and on the side I continue working with employer B on H1? The only issue which I am worried about in this option is to produce the job offer for GC. My old employer would be willing to hire me but I guess if it is a EVC model then I would have to produce a client letter - is that a correct assessment.
A. GC is future employment. So if A is ready to activate your old EB3 petition, you can go ahead and proceed with that. Client letters for I-140? I think you are mixing up H1 extension here.


My "2 cents" valuation

[newsletter1978]

Check in with Charles oppenheim
http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-as-of-october-2018/

[rocketfast]

Check in with Charles oppenheim
http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-as-of-october-2018/

From the link:


EB-3 India demand is relatively light so forward movement could possibly be a few months in December. It is expected that EB-3 India will surpass EB-2 India within the next 12 months, which is likely to spur downgrades.

If EB-3 India moves by a "few months" in December, then it should be surpassing EB2 India in December itself. Don't understand why "within 12 months". Ideally, filing dates in EB3 India need to move to June 2010 to generate demand.

[march1612]

Check in with Charles oppenheim
http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-as-of-october-2018/

EB-2 India movement will be very limited. As of right now, no more than one week of forward movement is expected in December

AND

EB-3 India demand is relatively light so forward movement could possibly be a few months in December

Is CO talking about Filing Dates here or Final Action dates?

[hiperm]

Thease prediction guys dont have any clue. Just throwing some words in their meeting.

[hiperm]

Charles oppenheim dont have any clue. Just throwing some words about prediction. no reliable resources for this

[texas_]

EB-2 India movement will be very limited. As of right now, no more than one week of forward movement is expected in December

AND

EB-3 India demand is relatively light so forward movement could possibly be a few months in December

Is CO talking about Filing Dates here or Final Action dates?


I believe they are talking about Final Action dates as Filing dates are temporary, it can move into early 2011 and then won't move subsequent 18 months

[HarepathekaIntezar]

EB-2 India movement will be very limited. As of right now, no more than one week of forward movement is expected in December

AND

EB-3 India demand is relatively light so forward movement could possibly be a few months in December

Is CO talking about Filing Dates here or Final Action dates?

CO has always been like that, never being clear about what he says. He cannot rely on USCIS honoring the filing date, so he would have to move the Final date to be Oct 2009 so as to generate demand sufficient to soak up the SO. I think there lies the rub. In Dec VB he will push the Filing Date into 2010 and see if USCIS honors the date. If USCIS does not honor the date in Dec VB, then he will push the Final date in Jan VB out into 2010. In Dec VB, he will push the Final date to be close or equal to EB2. So, that pretty much should interpret what he said.

[EB2/eb3]

CO has always been like that, never being clear about what he says. He cannot rely on USCIS honoring the filing date, so he would have to move the Final date to be Oct 2009 so as to generate demand sufficient to soak up the SO. I think there lies the rub. In Dec VB he will push the Filing Date into 2010 and see if USCIS honors the date. If USCIS does not honor the date in Dec VB, then he will push the Final date in Jan VB out into 2010. In Dec VB, he will push the Final date to be close or equal to EB2. So, that pretty much should interpret what he said.
I don’t think he will move FAD until the 3rd quarter.

[AceMan]

EB-2 India movement will be very limited. As of right now, no more than one week of forward movement is expected in December

AND

EB-3 India demand is relatively light so forward movement could possibly be a few months in December

Is CO talking about Filing Dates here or Final Action dates?

He is talking about FAD. For the last 10 months his observations has been pretty accurate, compared to the past. The biggest variance was his outlook for FY 2018 where he predicted several weeks movement for EB3 in August/September 2017, which in reality was 0 for first 3 months, followed by a week, 2 weeks and a month for Jan/feb/mar 2018 bulletin. He advanced it by 13 mont hs for April 2018 bulletin, but with the interview mandate, it turned out to be a little too late for all those people to get cleared in FY 2018.

If the process is getting stream lined as many feel, then we are looking at 4-5 months for a clean petition without RFE's. USCIS in their twitter has given backlogged reduction also as priority. However every body was looking only at H1 and H4 news, might have missed this part under Adjustment of Status improvements.

[march1612]

I still have trouble understanding the new memo released by USCIS about I-693 medical forms.

My question and confusion is specific to those who have applied their 485's in March 2012 and have not received any RFE from USCIS.

Based on new USCIS memo, is I-693 form submitted in March 2012 still valid (OR) Should we expect an RFE from USCIS when the dates are current?

[march1612]

CO has always been like that, never being clear about what he says. He cannot rely on USCIS honoring the filing date, so he would have to move the Final date to be Oct 2009 so as to generate demand sufficient to soak up the SO. I think there lies the rub. In Dec VB he will push the Filing Date into 2010 and see if USCIS honors the date. If USCIS does not honor the date in Dec VB, then he will push the Final date in Jan VB out into 2010. In Dec VB, he will push the Final date to be close or equal to EB2. So, that pretty much should interpret what he said.

Are you saying EB2-I and EB3-I Final action dates would be early 2010 if Filing dates are not honored by USCIS?

[bloddy1]

Question on the pending inventory as of July 2018; Does it already account for dependents filings as well? I assumed it would but not a 100% sure.

Can anyone shed some light?

[bikenlalan]

Question on the pending inventory as of July 2018; Does it already account for dependents filings as well? I assumed it would but not a 100% sure.

Can anyone shed some light?

Yes, the Pending inventory accounts the primary and the dependent filings waiting for Visa number.

[Moveon]

I still have trouble understanding the new memo released by USCIS about I-693 medical forms.

My question and confusion is specific to those who have applied their 485's in March 2012 and have not received any RFE from USCIS.

Based on new USCIS memo, is I-693 form submitted in March 2012 still valid (OR) Should we expect an RFE from USCIS when the dates are current?


I-693 Forms Submitted in 2012 are certainly not valid now. The only question is if you submitted the forms over the last 2 months will that be valid for 1 year or 2 years ?

[AceMan]

Are you saying EB2-I and EB3-I Final action dates would be early 2010 if Filing dates are not honored by USCIS?

Eb2I has 10000 waiting from 2009. Limited chance for it to reach 2010 Pd this December. Eb3 however might get up to April 2010 either in December or January bulletin.

[numgc1234]

Is the right time to ask about 2011 dates when it can be current... its been long time since 2012 movement...I am looking for it from last 5 years

[excalibur123]

Eb2I has 10000 waiting from 2009. Limited chance for it to reach 2010 Pd this December. Eb3 however might get up to April 2010 either in December or January bulletin.

Aceman - you have become too optimistic. Maybe the desire of what you want to happen is clouding your rational and calculative mind :)

[AceMan]

Aceman - you have become too optimistic. Maybe the desire of what you want to happen is clouding your rational and calculative mind :)

Optimistic, always !!! Too optimistic... nah, I don't think so. April 2010 for EB3 I is a very rational inference of CO's comments. His comments came after seeing about 45 days of EB3 I filing till OCT 09.

I am not seeing any big influx from EB2 with an EAD, trying to jump into EB3 queue which he was expecting.

The PERM numbers for 2009 was around 11 K for India. I am inclined to infer that EB3 I 2009 would be very thin in demand as EB2 2009 had cleared 4000 odd in 2014 and we had about 12 K for 2009 as in 2017 August data. These were the numbers I used to deduce that EB3 FD should reach April 2010 in Dec or Jan bulletin.

[EB2/eb3]

Optimistic, always !!! Too optimistic... nah, I don't think so. April 2010 for EB3 I is a very rational inference of CO's comments. His comments came after seeing about 45 days of EB3 I filing till OCT 09.

I am not seeing any big influx from EB2 with an EAD, trying to jump into EB3 queue which he was expecting.

The PERM numbers for 2009 was around 11 K for India. I am inclined to infer that EB3 I 2009 would be very thin in demand as EB2 2009 had cleared 4000 odd in 2014 and we had about 12 K for 2009 as in 2017 August data. These were the numbers I used to deduce that EB3 FD should reach April 2010 in Dec or Jan bulletin.

45 days? It’s only 20 days of filings he witnessed when he made that comment. Will be happy if he moves eb3 filing dates by a month or 2 in December

[AceMan]

45 days? It’s only 20 days of filings he witnessed when he made that comment. Will be happy if he moves eb3 filing dates by a month or 2 in December

My bad, I meant to say he will have about 45 days of data to decide dates for Dec 2018.

[hiperm]

hi AceMan
Are you reffering EB3 Final date or Filing date that move to 2010 in Dec visa bulletin?

[bloddy1]

Not sure if there is a place for voting within this forum or if someone projected the the percentage of EB2 reduction and moving forward at a faster clip, even if 20% of folks awaiting FA downgrade to EB2?
At current clip, there is high likelihood of EB3 FA moving to May09 in Jan'19 and if no-one down-ports, continue to Oct-09 in Apr-19, Jan'10 in Jun-19 while EB2 FA stays Apr'09 and May'09 in the same timeframe. However, the story will shift if even-20-30% folks downgrade.

In this likelihood of EB3 Final Action moving significantly i.e., Final Action 3-months ahead of EB2 by Apr 19, How many would realistically downgrade their applications to get a Final Action? Because downgrade PLUS any potential spillover would have a tremendous impact and under cut the EB2 inventory so it moves ahead at faster clip?

[harshrk]

Eb2I has 10000 waiting from 2009. Limited chance for it to reach 2010 Pd this December. Eb3 however might get up to April 2010 either in December or January bulletin.

Hi Aceman,

Thank you for your words wisdom. I follow you on Trackitt and appreciate your work.

I have a few questions, please give me your 2 cents whenever you can.

I have EB2 with PD of late July 2010 with my current employer and both EB2 and EB3 with previous employer. My current employer is a big US staffing provider. My previous employer is a small vendor. Now based on your prediction, how should I strategize my next steps:
1. When EB3 FAD moves to April 2010, how much will the FD (filing date) move?
2. How much the FD for EB2 will move
3. What should I do when my EB3 PD becomes current? should I convince my existing employer to file I140 in EB3 and file for I-485 concurrently (is it possible? as of now, my research indicates that it is possible - although I am not sure about the concurrent part).
4. Or if the current employer does not agree to downgrade from EB3 to EB2, shall I then just get it done from my previous employer (he is willing to support). Although I am not sure about the supplement J stuff - do I need to show the project/end client support? Are there any risks in this option?
5. OR shall wait for EB2 to be current?

Please let me know. Appreciate your help. Thanks so much.

[rocketfast]

In this likelihood of EB3 Final Action moving significantly i.e., Final Action 3-months ahead of EB2 by Apr 19, How many would realistically downgrade their applications to get a Final Action? Because downgrade PLUS any potential spillover would have a tremendous impact and under cut the EB2 inventory so it moves ahead at faster clip?


One can find a reasonable answer by looking at the amount of "upgrades" from EB3->EB2 for those folks with a EB3-I PD of before Aug 2007 and had a EAD. It is fair to say that, more than 50% did not "upgrade". (You can get a more accurate number by looking at historic 485 inventory and amount of approvals in a year). They most often only "upgraded" after a job change. But people in EB3-I after Aug 2007 seem to have "upgraded" massively to EB2-I as they did not have a EAD. I think we will see something similar here too. That is, people in EB2-I with PD from May 2010 will "downgrade" enmasse. But people in EB2-I who already have a EAD will take a "wait and watch" approach.

[EB2/eb3]

Not sure if there is a place for voting within this forum or if someone projected the the percentage of EB2 reduction and moving forward at a faster clip, even if 20% of folks awaiting FA downgrade to EB2?
At current clip, there is high likelihood of EB3 FA moving to May09 in Jan'19 and if no-one down-ports, continue to Oct-09 in Apr-19, Jan'10 in Jun-19 while EB2 FA stays Apr'09 and May'09 in the same timeframe. However, the story will shift if even-20-30% folks downgrade.

In this likelihood of EB3 Final Action moving significantly i.e., Final Action 3-months ahead of EB2 by Apr 19, How many would realistically downgrade their applications to get a Final Action? Because downgrade PLUS any potential spillover would have a tremendous impact and under cut the EB2 inventory so it moves ahead at faster clip?
I don’t think he will move eb3 FADs that aggressively. fad movement depends on SO, so he will not move it till April 2019

[Spectator]

The PERM numbers for 2009 was around 11 K for India.
It's true that PERM certifications for India by OFLC in FY2009 were around 11k (11,387).

Only 8 of those related to a PD of 2009 (based on A number).

The majority of PD2009 certifications were made in FY2010 because processing times were so long at that time (more than 1 year, with a backlog of 65k+ cases).

So far, there have been 16,672 certifications for India with a probable 2009 PD.

This was by far the lightest year and has increased steadily, particularly since August 2010. PD2017 currently stands at 52,828.

[bloddy1]

I don’t think he will move eb3 FADs that aggressively. fad movement depends on SO, so he will not move it till April 2019

While I agree April'19 timeframe is when there will be significant movement to both gauge the new dates accumulation as well as smoothen inflow impact, not sure if SO is required, if were to consider expending 2019 EB3 GC's or at least plan for it to be 'in queue' before June/July of 2019 so they are NOT unused.

[AceMan]

Hi Aceman,

Thank you for your words wisdom. I follow you on Trackitt and appreciate your work.

I have a few questions, please give me your 2 cents whenever you can.

I have EB2 with PD of late July 2010 with my current employer and both EB2 and EB3 with previous employer. My current employer is a big US staffing provider. My previous employer is a small vendor. Now based on your prediction, how should I strategize my next steps:
1. When EB3 FAD moves to April 2010, how much will the FD (filing date) move?
2. How much the FD for EB2 will move
3. What should I do when my EB3 PD becomes current? should I convince my existing employer to file I140 in EB3 and file for I-485 concurrently (is it possible? as of now, my research indicates that it is possible - although I am not sure about the concurrent part).
4. Or if the current employer does not agree to downgrade from EB3 to EB2, shall I then just get it done from my previous employer (he is willing to support). Although I am not sure about the supplement J stuff - do I need to show the project/end client support? Are there any risks in this option?
5. OR shall wait for EB2 to be current?

Please let me know. Appreciate your help. Thanks so much.

Please make sure your former employer is open to the idea of filing 485 for your EB3 petition. This would be your backup plan. Set this correctly first. He might insist on you coming back to him on H1, but make that decision only after seeing the December bulletin.

[AceMan]

It's true that PERM certifications for India by OFLC in FY2009 were around 11k (11,387).

Only 8 of those related to a PD of 2009 (based on A number).

The majority of PD2009 certifications were made in FY2010 because processing times were so long at that time (more than 1 year, with a backlog of 65k+ cases).

So far, there have been 16,672 certifications for India with a probable 2009 PD.

This was by far the lightest year and has increased steadily, particularly since August 2010. PD2017 currently stands at 52,828.

Thanks Spec for that info. So when we see 28k certified for 2010, majority would be 2009 PD if My inference is reasonable. As I mentioned earlier my Labor of February 2011 was approved by about 3 weeks. Where do I see how many 2010 Pd’s got certified in 2011?

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for that info. So when we see 28k certified for 2010, majority would be 2009 PD if My inference is reasonable. As I mentioned earlier my Labor of February 2011 was approved by about 3 weeks. Where do I see how many 2010 Pd’s got certified in 2011?
You'll find the figures in the FACTS & DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) section.

Figures by PD and FY are here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/50-PERM-Data-and-Calculations).
Monthly numbers for each PD year for India are here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India).

The figures have recently been updated with the full FY2018 data from OFLC.

The PD 2010 breakdown is as follows


PD ------ FY2010 -- FY2011 -- FY2012 -- FY2013 -- FY2014 -- FY2015 -- FY2016 -- FY2017 -- FY2018 --- Total
2010 ----- 9,157 -- 12,958 ----- 183 ------ 15 ------ 14 ------- 9 ------ 18 ------- 7 ------- 1 -- 22,362


Breakdown for FY2010

PD ------- No.
2005 ------- 1
2006 ------ 11
2007 --- 1,005
2008 --- 3,702
2009 -- 15,054
2010 --- 9,157

Total - 28,930

[AceMan]

Thanks Boss, So the numbers of PERM for 2009 and 2010 would be the calendar year numbers 16,672 and 22362.


Thanks once again for providing the link to the chart and maintaining it.

[Spectator]

Thanks Boss, So the numbers of PERM for 2009 and 2010 would be the calendar year numbers 16,672 and 22362.


Thanks once again for providing the link to the chart and maintaining it.
That's correct.

Someone, will I'm sure, point out that using the PERM A number is not a precise indicator of the PD. That's certainly true at the individual case level, but it's really the only way to look at the PD and I believe over a large data set (nearly 1 million records) the errors even out.

Recently, OFLC have started publishing the "Received Date" in the complete data dump, which should be the PD. I don't use it (a) to retain consistency over the entire data set and (b) because there are too many anomalous dates in the OFLC data.

I hope you find the data useful. The trick, of course is interpreting it - probably an impossible task.

[gcvijay]

Thanks Spec. So when the Inventory numbers say that the EB2 INDIA for 2009 is 11K instead of 16K for both EB2 and EB3 it means that people 16-11 ~ 5k upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and also those who have both EB2 and EB3 via the same or different employer. Also, any chance on a data on month wise priority dates labor cert data to find the 16K spread?

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. So when the Inventory numbers say that the EB2 INDIA for 2009 is 11K instead of 16K for both EB2 and EB3 it means that people 16-11 ~ 5k upgraded from EB3 to EB2 and also those who have both EB2 and EB3 via the same or different employer. Also, any chance on a data on month wise priority dates labor cert data to find the 16K spread?
No, it has nothing to do with upgrading at all.

The 11k figure was the number of PERM OFLC certified in FY2009. The 11k was made up of several different PD years.

The 16k figure is the number of PD 2009 PERM certified over a number of different FY. The number of PERM certified for a PD CY is broken down monthly in the FACTS & DATA section. I gave the link to that in my recent reply to Aceman. Here (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India) it is again.

[AceMan]

That's correct.

Someone, will I'm sure, point out that using the PERM A number is not a precise indicator of the PD. That's certainly true at the individual case level, but it's really the only way to look at the PD and I believe over a large data set (nearly 1 million records) the errors even out.

Recently, OFLC have started publishing the "Received Date" in the complete data dump, which should be the PD. I don't use it (a) to retain consistency over the entire data set and (b) because there are too many anomalous dates in the OFLC data.

I hope you find the data useful. The trick, of course is interpreting it - probably an impossible task.


Man, the data you have is platinum. Yes, that means with the correct interpretation, else the same elements can be found in Graphite too. I am like a baby in the candy shop.

[Raj0687]

worth looking, if you are planing EB2->EB3 route.

http://nairlaw.com/blog/posts/12

[excalibur123]

Man, the data you have is platinum. Yes, that means with the correct interpretation, else the same elements can be found in Graphite too. I am like a baby in the candy shop.

What does it mean for the 2009 calculations though ? 16K PDs less dupes multiplied by 2.1 for dependents less numbers issued in 2014 - are we looking at around 25K numbers for 2009 ?

That doesn't seem to tie out with PI which for EB2 was 11k plus around EB3 6K = 17-18K. So something is amiss.

[AceMan]

What does it mean for the 2009 calculations though ? 16K PDs less dupes multiplied by 2.1 for dependents less numbers issued in 2014 - are we looking at around 25K numbers for 2009 ?

That doesn't seem to tie out with PI which for EB2 was 11k plus around EB3 6K = 17-18K. So something is amiss.

If some perm was for people who changed jobs and filed during that time, they would have already been out of that list. Since it is 2009, I tend to believe that 40 % of that list would be not there(abandoned/ already greened/husband-spouse on H1/Eb1) as we are looking at it in 2018.

That is the reason for my optimism earlier that EB3 I dates are poised to move in December, and big jump in the 2nd quarter.

[EB2/eb3]

How did u come up with that 6k count for eb3? Just a guess?

[excalibur123]

How did u come up with that 6k count for eb3? Just a guess?

I did a few calculations based on dol data a few months back.

[aquatican]

Gurus, does the Pending Inventory for Oct come out in Oct or usually delayed?

[Spectator]

Gurus, does the Pending Inventory for Oct come out in Oct or usually delayed?

Last year's October Inventory was created and published on November 15.

[AceMan]

I did a few calculations based on dol data a few months back.


I did some analysis on the data provided by S, and here is some of my analysis and assumptions. From late 2010 PERM delays came down drastically. There is a high chance that majority of PERMS approved for 2008 and 2009 would be a job change or an upgrade petition.

So if I run my theory, the PERM numbers 55 (2007), 1396(2008), 1434(2009) approved in 2011 can be inferred as an upgrade. I would say this would be a decent assumption till 2013. The numbers started backing up again from 2014.

That means for 2009, the distinct PD's would be 8 + 15054 + some from 2011 (1434) for both EB2 and 3. I am inclined to ball park it to 15500. We had about 4000 total cleared till May 2009 in 2014. 1 dependent per primary, will reduce 2000 from 15500 which means 13500. Another 10831 (total) as per July PD. Another assumption of 5000 primaries in that, will indicate that we have about 8500 primaries for 2009 yet to do AOS in EB2 and 3.

What do you think of 8500 approved I140's waiting to do AOS for both EB2 and 3 in 2009?

[newsletter1978]

Hello Gurus, please provide your opinion. My EB2 PD is Oct 27 2009, if EB3 filing date or final action date becomes active for this PD, do you think i should wait for EB2 PD as it seems close but God knows when it will reach Oct 2009 or should i try to convert to EB3.

[idliman]

Hello Gurus, please provide your opinion. My EB2 PD is Oct 27 2009, if EB3 filing date or final action date becomes active for this PD, do you think i should wait for EB2 PD as it seems close but God knows when it will reach Oct 2009 or should i try to convert to EB3.
I believe you will receive your GC only after OCT2019 if you stay in EB2I. If you are confident that EB3I will not retrogress for your dates, you can port. It all depends on how quickly you become current in EB3I.

[nicky_0530]

Looks like there's some good news ahead for EB3-I with CO's monthly updates ahead of the December bulletin on what to expect. Here's the link to the update from CO:

https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2018/10/25/mid-october-visa-bulletin-expectations-eb-1-slow-movement-eb-3-india-to-advance-significantly/

[excalibur123]

Hello Gurus, please provide your opinion. My EB2 PD is Oct 27 2009, if EB3 filing date or final action date becomes active for this PD, do you think i should wait for EB2 PD as it seems close but God knows when it will reach Oct 2009 or should i try to convert to EB3.

My view is the lines should be seen as combined one for EB2 and EB3 as far as FAD is concerned - the dates would now be very close to each other. I don't buy into the talk of EB3 running far ahead of EB2. At most it would be ahead by a couple of weeks.

So if you already have EAD there is no real use for you to downgrade.

[bikenlalan]

I have a Feb-2011 EB2 priority date and have been watching this forum with discussions on Eb2->Eb3 downgrade. The dates for EB3 may not move that far in the near future but does it make sense to ask my employer to initiate an EB3 petition at this time? I have not spoken to the counsel yet about this and not sure if they would be willing to downgrade, but wanted to get thoughts from others on this forum. IMO, it makes sense to wait for a few bulletins to see how the dates move, but should I get a head start with the I-140, knowing I can also file concurrently with 485 when dates get current? I am on H-1b, good until Nov-2020 and would at least like to get the EAD/AP for all the reasons surrounding the future trend of H-1.

[excalibur123]

I have a Feb-2011 EB2 priority date and have been watching this forum with discussions on Eb2->Eb3 downgrade. The dates for EB3 may not move that far in the near future but does it make sense to ask my employer to initiate an EB3 petition at this time? I have not spoken to the counsel yet about this and not sure if they would be willing to downgrade, but wanted to get thoughts from others on this forum. IMO, it makes sense to wait for a few bulletins to see how the dates move, but should I get a head start with the I-140, knowing I can also file concurrently with 485 when dates get current? I am on H-1b, good until Nov-2020 and would at least like to get the EAD/AP for all the reasons surrounding the future trend of H-1.

Don't want to disappoint you but you are looking at atleast 4 years wait. Min. 1 year to clear out 2009 and another 3 years for 2010. Regardless of whether you are EB2 or EB3.

[simplygc123]

Please make sure your former employer is open to the idea of filing 485 for your EB3 petition. This would be your backup plan. Set this correctly first. He might insist on you coming back to him on H1, but make that decision only after seeing the December bulletin.


My PD is Dec 23 2009 EB2 (Current Employer) and ported from EB3 (Old Employer).

My current employer said I can file supplement J form and file my 485 if PD becomes Dec 24 th 2009.

I checked my I 140's in EB3 & EB2. Both are valid.

So is it possible to file my EAD with my current employer in EB3 with the supplement J form.

Thanks

[rocketfast]

Don't want to disappoint you but you are looking at atleast 4 years wait. Min. 1 year to clear out 2009 and another 3 years for 2010. Regardless of whether you are EB2 or EB3.

Based on Spec's PERM data, there are 22,361 people with a PD of 2010 (EB2 + EB3). So a total GC demand of 44,000. If EB2+Eb3 continues to get 10,000 GC a year, it will indeed take 4 years to clear just 2010. In worst case, if EB2+EB3 just receives 5600 GCs a year, then it will take 8 years to clear 2010.

But Q thinks that there is ~40% demand destruction. That is our best case scenario. In that case, there is a GC demand of ~26400. If we continue to get 10,000 GC a year, it takes 2.5 years to clear 2010. The worst case is 5 years.

I won't hold my breath :)

[excalibur123]

Based on Spec's PERM data, there are 22,361 people with a PD of 2010 (EB2 + EB3). So a total GC demand of 44,000. If EB2+Eb3 continues to get 10,000 GC a year, it will indeed take 4 years to clear just 2010. In worst case, if EB2+EB3 just receives 5600 GCs a year, then it will take 8 years to clear 2010.

But Q thinks that there is ~40% demand destruction. That is our best case scenario. In that case, there is a GC demand of ~26400. If we continue to get 10,000 GC a year, it takes 2.5 years to clear 2010. The worst case is 5 years.

I won't hold my breath :)

Very well put. Add 1-1.5 year for 2009 and you have best case 4 years to cross into 2011.

But do we know the source of the number 40% demand destruction? Has that been verified by comparing the PD data and actual GCs issues for any historical years? 40% seems way too high to me - I would like to put 15-20% as my guess.

[TheLureoftheGreen]

Looks like there's some good news ahead for EB3-I with CO's monthly updates ahead of the December bulletin on what to expect. Here's the link to the update from CO:

https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2018/10/25/mid-october-visa-bulletin-expectations-eb-1-slow-movement-eb-3-india-to-advance-significantly/


Hey Folks - Any predictions on EB2 India FA / FD dates over the next 6 months? My PD is early July 2009, but I am wondering whether I should request my employer to file an I-140 amendment to use EB3 dates (assuming EB3 FA does indeed move past my PD in the coming months).

Cheers!

[rocketfast]

Very well put. Add 1-1.5 year for 2009 and you have best case 4 years to cross into 2011.

But do we know the source of the number 40% demand destruction? Has that been verified by comparing the PD data and actual GCs issues for any historical years? 40% seems way too high to me - I would like to put 15-20% as my guess.

Q no longer provides micro-analysis. I took it as a statement made after strong considerations and added it in my if-else condition.

[redsox2009]

Not sure if this was posted.

Annual Numerical Limits 2019

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/Annual%20%20Numerical%20%20Limits%20-%20FY2019.pdf



Preference China* All Others Worldwide
E1 2,803 2,803 40,040
E2 2,803 2,803 40,040
E3/EW 2,502 2,802 40,040**
E4/SR 692 696 9,940
E5 0 696 9,940
Total 8,800* 9,800 140,000

[AceMan]

In 2009, as per July PD we had 10 K remaining in EB2. If in Oct PD, this number went down to 9000. We have standard 2900 for FY 19, we need a SO of around 6000 to clear 2009. Looking at the PERM numbers for ROW 17/18, I don't think it is an impossible ask. During the same time, if CO's predictions are true for EB3, lot of dual filers might use EB3 to do AOS.

[texas_]

In 2009, as per July PD we had 10 K remaining in EB2. If in Oct PD, this number went down to 9000. We have standard 2900 for FY 19, we need a SO of around 6000 to clear 2009. Looking at the PERM numbers for ROW 17/18, I don't think it is an impossible ask. During the same time, if CO's predictions are true for EB3, lot of dual filers might use EB3 to do AOS.


What is dual filers
Is it EB2 to EB3 or vice versa??

[AceMan]

What is dual filers
Is it EB2 to EB3 or vice versa??

People with multiple PERMS. For eg: A person who filed for EB3 in OCT 2009, may have ported to EB2 in 2014 without doing AOS. If EB3 moves forward, he might be able to utilize that instead of his EB2 petition for filing 485.

[excalibur123]

In 2009, as per July PD we had 10 K remaining in EB2. If in Oct PD, this number went down to 9000. We have standard 2900 for FY 19, we need a SO of around 6000 to clear 2009. Looking at the PERM numbers for ROW 17/18, I don't think it is an impossible ask. During the same time, if CO's predictions are true for EB3, lot of dual filers might use EB3 to do AOS.

Aceman - Did you mean PI instead of PD ? :)

Also do you mean EB2 ROW numbers ?

[AceMan]

Pending Inventory :-). EB2 I pending data for 2009 is 10382 as per July PI. I am expecting this number to ballpark around 9000 in the OCT PI.

[texas_]

People with multiple PERMS. For eg: A person who filed for EB3 in OCT 2009, may have ported to EB2 in 2014 without doing AOS. If EB3 moves forward, he might be able to utilize that instead of his EB2 petition for filing 485.

Unless they are with the same employer in 2009, 2014 and as of now.
If they jumped the employer then there are a lot of if's else etc

I hope I understood correctly!!

[girish989]

Just out of curiosity why would these numbers not have any effect on green card applications year after year -

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/H-1B/h-1b-petitions-by-gender-country-of-birth-fy2018.pdf

If 90% of H1B are from I + C, then where are the 140K GC apps coming from year after year.

[GC14Jan2010]

Can some one please provide rough estimate on my case? I have an EB2 PD of Jan2010, without EAD, as I ported from EB3 with the same employer. When do you think my PD will become current either through EB3 or EB2? If EB3 FD moves past Jan 2010, should I make use of that to file for EAD/AP or wait for EB2 to file for EAD? Many thanks for your inputs.

[bloddy1]

Very well put. Add 1-1.5 year for 2009 and you have best case 4 years to cross into 2011.

But do we know the source of the number 40% demand destruction? Has that been verified by comparing the PD data and actual GCs issues for any historical years? 40% seems way too high to me - I would like to put 15-20% as my guess.

That's interesting, especially demand destruction would make sense not because folks abandoned their petitions but just look in the mirror to see, how many are actually holding the same job they had when they first filed their petitions?

Not sure about the percentage but concentration between May 2009 and May 2010 is pretty strong (myself included) so 3 years is realistic. I'm banking on EB3 providing a second wind to sail to a GC.

[march1612]

What would be the source for demand destruction to happen and where would it happen EB2-I or EB3-I? And the source would be Spill over from EB2-ROW & EB3-ROW or EB3-I?

[excalibur123]

That's interesting, especially demand destruction would make sense not because folks abandoned their petitions but just look in the mirror to see, how many are actually holding the same job they had when they first filed their petitions?

Not sure about the percentage but concentration between May 2009 and May 2010 is pretty strong (myself included) so 3 years is realistic. I'm banking on EB3 providing a second wind to sail to a GC.

Dont agree with that - people would port the priority date even if they move the job. Also people leaving the country can still be in the line with Consular processing.

Only ones are those where there are duplicate filings (not as many I think), people leaving and employer abandoning the application and spouse filings. All these would not be 40% IMO.

[excalibur123]

Just out of curiosity why would these numbers not have any effect on green card applications year after year -

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/H-1B/h-1b-petitions-by-gender-country-of-birth-fy2018.pdf

If 90% of H1B are from I + C, then where are the 140K GC apps coming from year after year.

Technically people can be sponsored even when they are not in US, or when they are on student visas. That would cover large number of EB1, 4 & 5 cases.

Doesn't usually happen in EB2 and 3 - thats why we get spillovers. Though I am not sure where EB2 ROW demand is coming from.

Also there are L1 visas too.

[texas_]

Dont agree with that - people would port the priority date even if they move the job. Also people leaving the country can still be in the line with Consular processing.

Only ones are those where there are duplicate filings (not as many I think), people leaving and employer abandoning the application and spouse filings. All these would not be 40% IMO.


That may be true but it is always good to downgrade with the same employer. More over not all employers are agreeing to file in both eb3 and eb2. My employer said what if there are queries from uscis asking why downgrade same candidate. This impacts company's reputation and other cases going fwd etc etc

If you account all of these parameters you can negate 30-40% off your 44K PI. so narrowing down to 26K ball parking is estimated right. Also, EB3 I Filing dates would race ahead into mid 2011 by end of CY 2019 and then choke down.

Just a guesstimate!!

[AceMan]

That may be true but it is always good to downgrade with the same employer. More over not all employers are agreeing to file in both eb3 and eb2. My employer said what if there are queries from uscis asking why downgrade same candidate. This impacts company's reputation and other cases going fwd etc etc

If you account all of these parameters you can negate 30-40% off your 44K PI. so narrowing down to 26K ball parking is estimated right. Also, EB3 I Filing dates would race ahead into mid 2011 by end of CY 2019 and then choke down.

Just a guesstimate!!

This would be similar to my guess earlier where I am expecting about 8500 primaries (both 2 and 3) for 2009 + the 1 dependent each + 9000 remaining in EB2 with AOS.

[TheLureoftheGreen]

Gents — Are there any indicative data pointing to potential lateral SO from EB2 ROW to EB2 I? My PD is in early July 2009, and can’t quite get a sense for when I might become current. I see that there are over 5000 applicants ahead of my PD per July 2018 I-485 Inventory. Plus maybe an addition 2k AOS folks. Without SO, my PD ain’t becoming current for a couple of years, I reckon. Would love to hear your thoughts.

Cheers!

[siriyal75]

The comparison is not correct, you are comparing backlog numbers of India and China Vs regular H1 numbers for RoW.
Usually , out of 85K H1 per year, I &C share ~50-55%, Row is ~ 40-45%, which is ~40K H1B petitions for RoW.
This is only for primary applicants on H1B , if you include Family/Dependents, the count goes over double ~80K for GC, which is per person.
So technically, Row can take all 80K GC of EB2 & Eb3, with regular quota, without any spill over to I/C.

USCIS numbers are correct, I&C is 90% of 400K (This is mostly backlogs/extn and new), for Row its mostly new petitions , which is 10% of 400K, ~40K, which is inline with above numbers.

The India H1B pool is growing ~ 40-50K per year, from last 10 years, we have ~400K total. Need at least 600K-800K Green cards, to become current as of now.

India H1B pool is snow ball, the number keep growing year by year, generating huge mass, with limited GCs.

[Spectator]

The comparison is not correct, you are comparing backlog numbers of India and China Vs regular H1 numbers for RoW.
Usually , out of 85K H1 per year, I &C share ~50-55%, Row is ~ 40-45%, which is ~40K H1B petitions for RoW.
This is only for primary applicants on H1B , if you include Family/Dependents, the count goes over double ~80K for GC, which is per person.
So technically, Row can take all 80K GC of EB2 & Eb3, with regular quota, without any spill over to I/C.

USCIS numbers are correct, I&C is 90% of 400K (This is mostly backlogs/extn and new), for Row its mostly new petitions , which is 10% of 400K, ~40K, which is inline with above numbers.

The India H1B pool is growing ~ 40-50K per year, from last 10 years, we have ~400K total. Need at least 600K-800K Green cards, to become current as of now.

India H1B pool is snow ball, the number keep growing year by year, generating huge mass, with limited GCs.

The point you make is a good one, but your percentages are a bit wide of the mark.

In the FY2017 Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers report (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/Characteristics_of_H-1B_Specialty_Occupation_Workers_FY17.pdf) (the last one published) it shows 108,101 petitions approved in FY2017 for Initial Employment. This figure will include those for Cap-Exempt Employers which are outside the lottery.

Of these, 67,815 were for India (62.7%) and 15,165 were for China (14.0%). The next highest was Canada, with 2,226 (2.1%).

So rather than the India and China share being in the 50-55% range, it was 76.7% and was 76.5% in FY2016.

[siriyal75]

The point you make is a good one, but your percentages are a bit wide of the mark.

In the FY2017 Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers report (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/Characteristics_of_H-1B_Specialty_Occupation_Workers_FY17.pdf) (the last one published) it shows 108,101 petitions approved in FY2017 for Initial Employment. This figure will include those for Cap-Exempt Employers which are outside the lottery.

Of these, 67,815 were for India (62.7%) and 15,165 were for China (14.0%). The next highest was Canada, with 2,226 (2.1%).

So rather than the India and China share being in the 50-55% range, it was 76.7% and was 76.5% in FY2016.


Thanks S for the correction, as an old timer, I still thinking 50-55%, surprise to see it is going above 75%, soon it may reach 100% :).

I have provided info to have rough idea, there are many variables, like number of dependents , a small ratio change would impact heavily.


The best source is PERM data, as from FACT section, we can see 31K in 2017, and 41K in 2018 PERMs processed for Row. This can translate in 60K-80K GC application for family/dependents.

H1 is main source, but not only source, we can see H2 applicants also filing for GC in EB3/Eb2 (Landscaping, meat processing, etc).

[siriyal75]

Soon USCIS has to deny close to 100K every year (denials = new quota per year) for I&C.
Otherwise this pool grows so big, USCIS has to double/triple their staff to process extns and change of employment petitions for I&C.

[gcvijay]

Wouldn't that mean that we have around 17K both EB2 and Eb3 for entire 2009 and if we make a split that will sure leave EB2 INDIA numbers close to 11 to 12 K which with yearly quota 2800 and a estimated SO of 5000 should take EB2 INDIA dates to mid\later 2009 and not clear entire 2009?

Also on a different note, is there a reason why CO put May 22nd 2009 as filing dates for EB2 INDIA? Is he not considering spillovers while establishing EB2 INDIA filing dates?

[redsox2009]

Here is the 2018 September DOS data.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
00
00
00
00
00
00
08
08


EB2
02
06
00
01
00
00
01
10



EB3
017
003
007
242
09
06
049
333


EB4
003
000
000
000
000
001
095
099


EB5
379
046
000
000
025
000
119
569


Total
401
055
007
243
034
007
272
1019

[redsox2009]

2018 Year DOS Data total.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
1457
0183
0074
0012
0281
0018
1829
3854


EB2
0091
0075
0042
0371
1149
0032
1359
3119



EB3
0526
0747
0224
4969
0455
0099
3727
10747


EB4
039
188
005
057
036
042
1451
1818


EB5
4161
0394
0066
0012
0463
0658
2053
7807


Total
6274
1587
0411
5421
2384
0849
10419
27345

[redsox2009]

2018 Year DOS Data total.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
ROW
Total


FB
12245
15593
28120
14826
140857
211641


EB
6274
1587
0411
5421
13652
27345


Total
18519
17180
28531
20247
154509
238986

[Stylorogue27]

Eb2I has 10000 waiting from 2009. Limited chance for it to reach 2010 Pd this December. Eb3 however might get up to April 2010 either in December or January bulletin.

hello - my pd is May 2009 eb3 I and I am in India and selected CP / New Delhi - I am no longer with the employer as they have no operations here - however I may be able to get an offer letter from them to rejoin if GC is approved, as I am in the same industry but picked up 10 years of experience since.

couple of qns - mucho appreciate responses

Can I get my docs together and apply for CP or do I absolutely need to await a word from NVC to my employer ? -- the bulletin says dates for filing is Oct 2009 so am I good to go ?

How long would it possibly take to get an interview call ?

The salary would possibly be the same as what it was when it was filed despite my experience, if they give me the offer letter - will that be a problem ?

Any pointers or threads to help me understand CP better - please guide - thanks again

[AceMan]

Wouldn't that mean that we have around 17K both EB2 and Eb3 for entire 2009 and if we make a split that will sure leave EB2 INDIA numbers close to 11 to 12 K which with yearly quota 2800 and a estimated SO of 5000 should take EB2 INDIA dates to mid\later 2009 and not clear entire 2009?

Also on a different note, is there a reason why CO put May 22nd 2009 as filing dates for EB2 INDIA? Is he not considering spillovers while establishing EB2 INDIA filing dates?

17000 will be in addition to the 9000-10000 already present in the EB2 I with AOS. Also lot of 2008 EB3 I still clearing in FY 19. EB2 very difficult to clear 2009 in FY 19. If they continue to respect the filing date, we might see EB3- 2010 with EAD's. December/January bulletins very important for EB3 I, to determine what is in store for FY 19.

[TheLureoftheGreen]

17000 will be in addition to the 9000-10000 already present in the EB2 I with AOS. Also lot of 2008 EB3 I still clearing in FY 19. EB2 very difficult to clear 2009 in FY 19. If they continue to respect the filing date, we might see EB3- 2010 with EAD's. December/January bulletins very important for EB3 I, to determine what is in store for FY 19.

Any predictions for when we might see early July 2009 EB2 becoming current (FD or FA)?

Cheers!

[gcvijay]

Thanks for your response. Are you saying even with SO of lets say 5000 EB2 INDIA will not clear 2009? Where do you think will EB2 INDIA land by end of this FY? May 22nd 2009 per Filing Dates?

[Stylorogue27]

I tried posting a qn but seem to have lost it - please help ---- my PD is May 2009 / EB3 I - I had to leave the US and opted for CP / New Delhi.

The Visa bulletin says F/D is Oct 2009 so can i move forward with the process or do I need to absolutely wait for NVC to contact my employer ? - what can I expect in Dec/Jan - how long does it take for an interview request to come up ?

I do not work for that employer anymore since they have no operations in India but they may give me an offer letter - I obviously have 10 more years of experience but the offer letter will probably be having the same salary that was mentioned when the GC was filed - will that be a problem during the consular interview ?

Also - can anyone suggest any threads/sites that shed some light on consular processing experiences - I have been scanning several sites but most of the experiences mentioned are really old - is that because there are very few CP cases (E-based) ?

Thanks much

[march1612]

17000 will be in addition to the 9000-10000 already present in the EB2 I with AOS. Also lot of 2008 EB3 I still clearing in FY 19. EB2 very difficult to clear 2009 in FY 19. If they continue to respect the filing date, we might see EB3- 2010 with EAD's. December/January bulletins very important for EB3 I, to determine what is in store for FY 19.

Based on Spec's numbers, Total PERMs approved for FY2009 EB2 is around 29,502 . I assume these numbers also include EB2-ROW along with EB2-I.

Assuming 17000 would be EB2-ROW then these applications would have already approved and got green card.

I'm missing anything here?

[AceMan]

Based on Spec's numbers, Total PERMs approved for FY2009 EB2 is around 29,502 . I assume these numbers also include EB2-ROW along with EB2-I.

Assuming 17000 would be EB2-ROW then these applications would have already approved and got green card.

I'm missing anything here?

No, the 29502 would be only India. Correction.. It was entire World

[AceMan]

Thanks for your response. Are you saying even with SO of lets say 5000 EB2 INDIA will not clear 2009? Where do you think will EB2 INDIA land by end of this FY? May 22nd 2009 per Filing Dates?

India, has got around 10000 AOS cases as per July Pending inventory. 5000 SO + 2804 mandatory numbers in 2019 will not clear all of them. We need 7000 SO for EB2 to have a chance to clear 2009. And another requirement would be no new EB2 petitions to do AOS for 2009.

[Spectator]

Based on Spec's numbers, Total PERMs approved for FY2009 EB2 is around 29,502 . I assume these numbers also include EB2-ROW along with EB2-I.

Assuming 17000 would be EB2-ROW then these applications would have already approved and got green card.

I'm missing anything here?

29,502 is the total number of PERM OFLC approved in FY2009. Of these, 2,112 were China, 11,387 were India and 16,003 were ROW/M/P. This covered PDs from 2005 to 2009. The majority were 2008 PD.

But really, that information is irrelevant. More important are the figures for a PD year, which build up over several FY of approvals.

For CY2009 PD, India has had 16,672 PERM certifications. Straightforward cases were certified mainly in FY2010, then later FY approvals probably represent when Supervised Recruitment, Audit and lastly Appeal cases were finally certified.

ROW demand in FY2019 will probably come from a combination of part FY2018 certifications and part FY2019 certifications, plus NIW cases that don't need PERM.


I had a quick look at all the USCIS Pending I-485 Inventories for EB2 India PD2009. I can identify that nearly 17k cases appear to have been in the Inventory over time and I estimate probably another couple of k that didn't appear due to the net monthly total reducing. But that's just a quick look by me

All these different figures from everybody just point to the difficulty of the task to estimate from solid PERM data to I-485 numbers. There's too many factors which have to be guessed at because there is no solid information available. Even the USCIS Inventory only shows part of the picture even if the data were high quality. I don't think it ever has shown total numbers. And, of course, it doesn't include any cases that were Consular Processed.

[Spectator]

Thanks for your response. Are you saying even with SO of lets say 5000 EB2 INDIA will not clear 2009? Where do you think will EB2 INDIA land by end of this FY? May 22nd 2009 per Filing Dates?

What's your rationale for thinking there would be 5k spillover for EB2-I in FY2019?

[siriyal75]

Trackitt I-485 pending applications for EB2 India from Jan-2008 to July-2010 is 2630, which is 15,826 pending application as per USCIS latest data, which is 6 multiplier.
Same for EB3 India is 121, with 6 multiplier , it would be 726 applications so far till Sep-2009, even we take 10 multiplier , it not crossing 3K, regular annual quota.

This is just for an idea, on the latest EB3 I-485 filings trend.

[gcvijay]

What's your rationale for thinking there would be 5k spillover for EB2-I in FY2019?
Just an assumption spec. Someone was pointing ROW perms were lower and that may contribute some spillover but not sure 5k is possible

So from your 17k perm of 2009 if we multiply by 1.5 for dependents and minus the 485's approved since 2009 till date for PD 2009 and minus the EB3 downgrades can we say we have approx not 11k per inventory but the next pending inventory should have unusually higher numbers listed?

[redsox2009]

Q3 2018 USCIS 485 Numbers are Out.

34365 --485 Applications were Approved and 11055 were approved at Service Centers, and 23310 were approved at field centers.

During Q3 EB1 had a cuttoff date, and, EB2 China and EB3 India moved upto and year, most of these applications approved at service centers. Pending cases at service center were down from 155k to 78k which were down by 50%. If similar pattern continues for FY2019, then there is good chances for EB1 India and EB2 India dates moving at the end of the year.

Out of 78K pending 485 at service center, EB1 India is around 4k and 16K from EB2 India.

[Spectator]

Q3 2018 USCIS 485 Numbers are Out.

34365 --485 Applications were Approved and 11055 were approved at Service Centers, and 23310 were approved at field centers.

During Q3 EB1 had a cuttoff date, and, EB2 China and EB3 India moved upto and year, most of these applications approved at service centers. Pending cases at service center were down from 155k to 78k which were down by 50%. If similar pattern continues for FY2019, then there is good chances for EB1 India and EB2 India dates moving at the end of the year.

Out of 78K pending 485 at service center, EB1 India is around 4k and 16K from EB2 India.

There's still a huge disconnect between the 76,868 Employment I-485 pending reported at Service Centers (with zero shown at NBC) in the Q3 Adjustment of Status (Form I-485 Application) Report (149,179 at SC & FO) and the July Employment Inventory Report figure of 29,471 for Service Centers.

[redsox2009]

One more interesting data point I noticed was 485 rejections, they went up by 90% when compared with Q3 2017.

Q3 2017 rejections are 1705
Q3 2018 rejections are 3250


Overall 485 rejections were up for this year. 2018 Rejections up to Q3 period are 7987, for whole 2017 year 485 Rejections are 7345.

[hiperm]

hi
what is the chance for Jan 2010 in EB2 or EB3 in Dec's filing date?
Any prediction when Date of Filling will reach Jan 2010?

[tatikonda]

Dear All,

Need advice for the situation.
My H1-B was approved until March 15th, 2021.
However, during the port entry, I was given I-94 only until Feb 16th 2019 as my passport was valid only until Feb 16th 2019.
I renewed my passport and received new passport. I would like to extend my I-94.

I was told by my company lawyer that, since I am not having any international travel plans before my i-94 expires,
only way to extend the I-94 cards is to file for an I-94 extension with USCIS.
However, I don't see any forms for I-94 extension for H1B Holder. I see that I-539 form but in H VISA, I see only H4.
Please advise.

[bloddy1]

There's still a huge disconnect between the 76,868 Employment I-485 pending reported at Service Centers (with zero shown at NBC) in the Q3 Adjustment of Status (Form I-485 Application) Report (149,179 at SC & FO) and the July Employment Inventory Report figure of 29,471 for Service Centers.

Is there a definitive inventory and break down for Eb2/Eb3- India for Service Center and Field Offices? Trying to get into the mindset where, if you want to know exactly the inventory and appropriately staff agent workforce, you want very good predictability around - num. of adjudicated cases, when is inventory going to hit for adjudication/Final action and the availability of numbers (regular, SOFAD, political indeterminate etc., ). Its is of smaller impact & consequence to be adjudicated than to provide final action, so one has more freedom to move adjudication date and get extremely good predictability but basically don't care too much on end user experience, so CO will hold-on moving FA dates.

EB2 is in that stage for predictability, not EB3.

The significance, of both recent AILA commentary and why CO will be slow in moving FA dates for EB3, is that, once EB3-FA significantly goes ahead of EB2-FA the predictability is thrown to the wind. While there is a big incentive for backlogged individual to downgrade to EB3 and go thru enormous paperwork if and only if EB3-FA goes where EB2-FA has not gone before, but just moving Filing dates isnt going to entice people to crossover.

In conclusion, and stating the obvious, EB3 Filing Date is going to surpass the best EB2 ever was but Final will likely never go way beyond (2-3 months) EB2FA. Just because CO can justify Eb3 is of poorer quality, so I would rather spillover to EB1 and still be OK. There is no law prohibiting.

In totality, its a zero sum game EB2 vs. EB3, so as much as we care about EB3 numbers are going to be under allocated, look at the last few years, EB3 has been going to waste with minimal to none consequence. One may argue the case of China EB3 but look closer, it never is more than 2-3 months ahead. Don't hang your hats onto sailing EB3 winds!! Rather, look at cumulatively, how it will help and move both EB2/3 numbers in tandem and quite frankly, there will be no difference, once inventory is built-up.

[bloddy1]

Dear All,

Need advice for the situation.
My H1-B was approved until March 15th, 2021.
However, during the port entry, I was given I-94 only until Feb 16th 2019 as my passport was valid only until Feb 16th 2019.
I renewed my passport and received new passport. I would like to extend my I-94.

I was told by my company lawyer that, since I am not having any international travel plans before my i-94 expires,
only way to extend the I-94 cards is to file for an I-94 extension with USCIS.
However, I don't see any forms for I-94 extension for H1B Holder. I see that I-539 form but in H VISA, I see only H4.
Please advise.

Luckily, there is a thing called CBP local office which can potentially do the correction. My wife was in a similar situation (but without the passport complexity), our lawyer suggested we go to the local CBP office and get it corrected. They will re-issue a new I-94. There is usually a local CBP office close to a border or an airport you reside at. Do run this by your attorney, no harm in trying though.

[h1bh1bh1b]

One more interesting data point I noticed was 485 rejections, they went up by 90% when compared with Q3 2017.

Q3 2017 rejections are 1705
Q3 2018 rejections are 3250


Overall 485 rejections were up for this year. 2018 Rejections up to Q3 period are 7987, for whole 2017 year 485 Rejections are 7345.

Just curious at what stage, candidate will know about the rejection?

1.Will candidates EAD be rejected?
2.After getting EAD, Based on Interview ,can one be rejected?

[AceMan]

In conclusion, and stating the obvious, EB3 Filing Date is going to surpass the best EB2 ever was but Final will likely never go way beyond (2-3 months) EB2FA. Just because CO can justify Eb3 is of poorer quality, so I would rather spillover to EB1 and still be OK. There is no law prohibiting.

In totality, its a zero sum game EB2 vs. EB3, so as much as we care about EB3 numbers are going to be under allocated, look at the last few years, EB3 has been going to waste with minimal to none consequence. One may argue the case of China EB3 but look closer, it never is more than 2-3 months ahead. Don't hang your hats onto sailing EB3 winds!! Rather, look at cumulatively, how it will help and move both EB2/3 numbers in tandem and quite frankly, there will be no difference, once inventory is built-up.

It is plausible, though we have to see the next few bulletins to really see if this theory has any traction. The visas Eb3 lost are always around 2000-3000. We are still in the first quarter of FY19. Eb3 has the potential to go all the way up to May 2010, without having to worry much about original Eb2 filers. The Eb2 guys who will try to downport would be mostly prior porters who already had an Eb3 petition before.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Just an assumption spec. Someone was pointing ROW perms were lower and that may contribute some spillover but not sure 5k is possible

So from your 17k perm of 2009 if we multiply by 1.5 for dependents and minus the 485's approved since 2009 till date for PD 2009 and minus the EB3 downgrades can we say we have approx not 11k per inventory but the next pending inventory should have unusually higher numbers listed?

EB2I is not going to move much this year bro. All those who are hoping for any SO, need to cool their heels and expectations! Next year maybe better year to speculate.

[EB2/eb3]

Spec, is it true that child’s age will not freeze when filed using Filing date? If so, will it freeze automatically when FAD is current?

[Tandav]

Spec, is it true that child’s age will not freeze when filed using Filing date? If so, will it freeze automatically when FAD is current?

Please correct me if not right, Yes. But, the age will freeze only if the FAD occurs before the child reaches 21 years old.

[Spectator]

Spec, is it true that child's age will not freeze when filed using Filing date? If so, will it freeze automatically when FAD is current?

Unfortunately, yes, that is true. USCIS has chosen to make that interpretation because that is when they believe a visa becomes "immediately available".
USCIS argue that the Filing Date submission only satisfies the "sought to acquire" condition.

Also, to be clear, it's before the child's CSPA Age reaches 21, which in turn depends on how long it took to approve the I-140 petition.

Yes, it will freeze when the FAD becomes current on the first day of the VB month.

You can find confirmation in the Policy Manual (https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HTML/PolicyManual-Volume7-PartA-Chapter7.html) or more concisely here (https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/child-status-protection-act), where it states:


CSPA for Family and Employment Preference and Diversity Visa Immigrants
.
.
Age at Time of Visa Availability

The date the visa is considered available is the later of these two dates:

The date the petition was approved; or
The first day of the month of the Department of State Visa Bulletin that indicates that a visa is available for you in the Final Action Dates chart.

Here (http://blog.cyrusmehta.com/2018/09/recipe-for-confusion-uscis-says-only-the-final-action-date-in-visa-bulletin-protects-a-childs-age-under-the-child-status-protection-act.html)'s an article about it.

[EB2/eb3]

Unfortunately, yes, that is true. USCIS has chosen to make that interpretation because that is when they believe a visa becomes "immediately available".
USCIS argue that the Filing Date submission only satisfies the "sought to acquire" condition.

Also, to be clear, it's before the child's CSPA Age reaches 21, which in turn depends on how long it took to approve the I-140 petition.

Yes, it will freeze when the FAD becomes current on the first day of the VB month.

You can find confirmation in the Policy Manual (https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/HTML/PolicyManual-Volume7-PartA-Chapter7.html) or more concisely here (https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/child-status-protection-act), where it states:

Thank you spec but the information but the example given on uscis website is very confusing.
Pending time is calculated as number of days between the date that it is properly filed(filing date) and the approval date and the forumla is
Approval Date - Filing Date = Pending time

[EB2/eb3]

Is there a definitive inventory and break down for Eb2/Eb3- India for Service Center and Field Offices? Trying to get into the mindset where, if you want to know exactly the inventory and appropriately staff agent workforce, you want very good predictability around - num. of adjudicated cases, when is inventory going to hit for adjudication/Final action and the availability of numbers (regular, SOFAD, political indeterminate etc., ). Its is of smaller impact & consequence to be adjudicated than to provide final action, so one has more freedom to move adjudication date and get extremely good predictability but basically don't care too much on end user experience, so CO will hold-on moving FA dates.

EB2 is in that stage for predictability, not EB3.

The significance, of both recent AILA commentary and why CO will be slow in moving FA dates for EB3, is that, once EB3-FA significantly goes ahead of EB2-FA the predictability is thrown to the wind. While there is a big incentive for backlogged individual to downgrade to EB3 and go thru enormous paperwork if and only if EB3-FA goes where EB2-FA has not gone before, but just moving Filing dates isnt going to entice people to crossover.

In conclusion, and stating the obvious, EB3 Filing Date is going to surpass the best EB2 ever was but Final will likely never go way beyond (2-3 months) EB2FA. Just because CO can justify Eb3 is of poorer quality, so I would rather spillover to EB1 and still be OK. There is no law prohibiting.

In totality, its a zero sum game EB2 vs. EB3, so as much as we care about EB3 numbers are going to be under allocated, look at the last few years, EB3 has been going to waste with minimal to none consequence. One may argue the case of China EB3 but look closer, it never is more than 2-3 months ahead. Don't hang your hats onto sailing EB3 winds!! Rather, look at cumulatively, how it will help and move both EB2/3 numbers in tandem and quite frankly, there will be no difference, once inventory is built-up.

Makes perfect sense on why CO is not moving eb3 dates aggressively. Based on this, where do u think eb3 fad might end up by end of the FY?

[ak7419]

I was thinking that I would be current by now with EB2I PD of Sep, 2009. What a bummer! I guess not until next October?

[Spectator]

Thank you spec but the information but the example given on uscis website is very confusing.
Pending time is calculated as number of days between the date that it is properly filed(filing date) and the approval date and the forumla is
Approval Date - Filing Date = Pending time
That is correct, but it also says clearly that they are talking about the petition, not the I-485 application.

An I-485 is an application for AOS as the beneficiary of an underlying petition.

For EB1, EB2 and EB3 cases, the petition is an I-140.

So for the example (changed to reflect EB)


3. Determining Length of Time Petition Was Pending

For family and employment-based preference adjustment applicants, the length of time a petition was pending (pending time) is the number of days between the date that it is properly filed (filing date) [23] and the approval date. The formula for determining the length of time the petition was pending is as follows:

Approval Date - Filing Date = Pending Time

Example

The applicant’s employer filed a(n I-140) petition on the applicant’s behalf on February 1, 2016. USCIS approved the (I-140) petition on August 1, 2016.

August 1, 2016 - February 1, 2016 = 6 months (or 182 days)

Therefore, the applicant’s (I-140) petition pending time is 6 months (or 182 days).

This then feeds into the CSPA age calculation as the Pending Time (the pending time is the amount of time it took for the I-140 to be approved):


2. Child Status Protection Act Age Calculation

For family (including VAWA) [20] and employment-based preference and DV categories, an adjustment applicant’s CSPA age is calculated by subtracting the number of days the petition was pending (pending time) from the applicant’s age on the date the immigrant visa becomes available to him or her (age at time of visa availability). [21] The formula for calculating CSPA age is as follows:

Age at time of visa availability - (Petition) Pending Time = CSPA Age

While an applicant must file an adjustment application or otherwise seek lawful permanent resident status in order to benefit from CSPA, the date the applicant files an adjustment application is not relevant for the CSPA age calculation. [22]

Example

The applicant is 21 years and 4 months old when an immigrant visa becomes available to him or her (this is when the FAD becomes current). The applicant’s (I-140) petition was pending for 6 months. The applicant’s CSPA age is calculated as follows:

21 years and 4 months - 6 months = 20 years and 10 months

Therefore, the applicant’s CSPA age is under 21.

I hope that makes it clearer for you.

[EB2/eb3]

Yes, it does. Thank you for the clarification Spec

[jimmys]

Is there a definitive inventory and break down for Eb2/Eb3- India for Service Center and Field Offices? Trying to get into the mindset where, if you want to know exactly the inventory and appropriately staff agent workforce, you want very good predictability around - num. of adjudicated cases, when is inventory going to hit for adjudication/Final action and the availability of numbers (regular, SOFAD, political indeterminate etc., ). Its is of smaller impact & consequence to be adjudicated than to provide final action, so one has more freedom to move adjudication date and get extremely good predictability but basically don't care too much on end user experience, so CO will hold-on moving FA dates.

EB2 is in that stage for predictability, not EB3.

The significance, of both recent AILA commentary and why CO will be slow in moving FA dates for EB3, is that, once EB3-FA significantly goes ahead of EB2-FA the predictability is thrown to the wind. While there is a big incentive for backlogged individual to downgrade to EB3 and go thru enormous paperwork if and only if EB3-FA goes where EB2-FA has not gone before, but just moving Filing dates isnt going to entice people to crossover.

In conclusion, and stating the obvious, EB3 Filing Date is going to surpass the best EB2 ever was but Final will likely never go way beyond (2-3 months) EB2FA. Just because CO can justify Eb3 is of poorer quality, so I would rather spillover to EB1 and still be OK. There is no law prohibiting.

In totality, its a zero sum game EB2 vs. EB3, so as much as we care about EB3 numbers are going to be under allocated, look at the last few years, EB3 has been going to waste with minimal to none consequence. One may argue the case of China EB3 but look closer, it never is more than 2-3 months ahead. Don't hang your hats onto sailing EB3 winds!! Rather, look at cumulatively, how it will help and move both EB2/3 numbers in tandem and quite frankly, there will be no difference, once inventory is built-up.

The issue CO indicated was there's not enough demand for EB-3 till Jan 1,2009. (First 10 months of 2008 has been current for 6 months now) It's pretty obvious that people ported and EB-2 stayed in 2008/2009 for too long. The problem you mentioned only will happen if people start downgrading aggressively. For that has to happen the EB3 FA dates have to pass May 1,2010. Until then EB-3 will sail smooth. I won't be surprised if EB3 FA dates are ahead of EB-2FA in April 2019 itself.

[jimmys]

Dear All,

Need advice for the situation.
My H1-B was approved until March 15th, 2021.
However, during the port entry, I was given I-94 only until Feb 16th 2019 as my passport was valid only until Feb 16th 2019.
I renewed my passport and received new passport. I would like to extend my I-94.

I was told by my company lawyer that, since I am not having any international travel plans before my i-94 expires,
only way to extend the I-94 cards is to file for an I-94 extension with USCIS.
However, I don't see any forms for I-94 extension for H1B Holder. I see that I-539 form but in H VISA, I see only H4.
Please advise.

You can schedule an appointment or visit your closest CBP station. They can extend your I-94 based on your new passport till the PED.

[skpanda]

Dear All,

Need advice for the situation.
My H1-B was approved until March 15th, 2021.
However, during the port entry, I was given I-94 only until Feb 16th 2019 as my passport was valid only until Feb 16th 2019.
I renewed my passport and received new passport. I would like to extend my I-94.

I was told by my company lawyer that, since I am not having any international travel plans before my i-94 expires,
only way to extend the I-94 cards is to file for an I-94 extension with USCIS.
However, I don't see any forms for I-94 extension for H1B Holder. I see that I-539 form but in H VISA, I see only H4.
Please advise.

Email CBP. They will fix this via email it self. I have had 2 situations similar to this and both the times, they fixed I94 within 3 days.

[vicks23]

Email CBP. They will fix this via email it self. I have had 2 situations similar to this and both the times, they fixed I94 within 3 days.
call the nearst CBP office and tell them the story. They shall be able to fix it. NY phone numbers are 718-553-3683 or 718-553-3684

[delguy]

call the nearst CBP office and tell them the story. They shall be able to fix it. NY phone numbers are 718-553-3683 or 718-553-3684

Better to go or email them with all the details and attachments. If you go there, take original I-797s and a photocopy of those and passports too.

[altek001]

A firm had evinced interest for full time role to proceed with my h1b transfer. They said, that would be fine as 140 is approved. Then, they asked for my country of passport(India) and they balked out. Maybe they considered the h1 renewals as the backlog is huge for India.
Did anyone had any experience as such?

[Immigo]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-december-2018.html

EB3-I, filing date moves to Jan 1, 2010!!!!

Other info:
EB2-I, filing date: May 22, 2009
Final action dates: EB2-I: Apr 1, 2009, EB3-I: Mar 1, 2009
EB1-I final action date jumped more than an year i.e. from Jun 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017
EB1-I filing date stayed at Oct 1, 2017

[AceMan]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-december-2018.html

EB3-I, filing date moves to Jan 1, 2010!!!!

Other info:
EB2-I, filing date: May 22, 2009
Final action dates: EB2-I: Apr 1, 2009, EB3-I: Mar 1, 2009
EB1-I final action date jumped more than an year i.e. from Jun 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017
EB1-I filing date stayed at Oct 1, 2017

First, lets hope USCIS respects the FD, Most probably EB3 I filing dates will move faster for next bulletin.

[idliman]

Looks like there is no demand in EB3I and somehow CO is trying to keep EB3I dates below EB2I. EB3I might end up with MAY2010 by the end of this year. Any movement is good news for both EB3I and EB2I.

[texas_]

Looks like there is no demand in EB3I and somehow CO is trying to keep EB3I dates below EB2I. EB3I might end up with MAY2010 by the end of this year. Any movement is good news for both EB3I and EB2I.


When you say May2010 would that be Filing Data or Final Action date? Please Clerify

[srimurthy]

Looks like there is no demand in EB3I and somehow CO is trying to keep EB3I dates below EB2I. EB3I might end up with MAY2010 by the end of this year. Any movement is good news for both EB3I and EB2I.
How can EB2I benefit when it can't get the spillover (other than shifting and refiling in EB3), any spillover will go to EB1?

[iatiam]

How can EB2I benefit when it can't get the spillover (other than shifting and refiling in EB3), any spillover will go to EB1?

You answered your own question. The shifting and re-filing from EB3 would help, if the inventory does not go down, it will at least remain steady.

[EB3Iwaiting]

USCIS honored Filing Dates for October and November and EB3I filing dates keeps moving forward. This tells me that there are very few folks left in that category in 2009. 2009 had few filings because of the recession in 2008 and most (like me) who originally waited in 2009 EB3I already ported to EB2I.

Depending if USCIS does continue to honor filing dates and late 2009 EB2I filers deciding to down port, EB3I dates will continue to move forward and eventually stabilizing with EB2I - similar to what happened with China.

[smuggymba]

You answered your own question. The shifting and re-filing from EB3 would help, if the inventory does not go down, it will at least remain steady.

If some EB2 people move out of the EB2 queue into the EB3 queue (via down-port), I guess it would be good for both.

EB3 will get GC faster and lesser people in EB2 queue.

[simplygc123]

First, lets hope USCIS respects the FD, Most probably EB3 I filing dates will move faster for next bulletin.

Hi Aceman, I have my I 140 approved in EB3 with my previous employer and ported to Eb2 with the current employer. Priority date is Dec 23 2009. Both I 140's are valid. I am checking with my Attorney to file in Eb3.

But I would like to check with you as well. Do you have any inputs on this.

Thanks

[gcvijay]

How can EB2I benefit when it can't get the spillover (other than shifting and refiling in EB3), any spillover will go to EB1?

The future of Eb2 INDIA is limited movement as mentioned by CO and he estimates it to move only until May 22 2009 per his filing dates where he expects EB2 INDIA to be in 8-12 months which is pretty much the end of this FY. Apart from that if the following scenarios happen things will change

1) Spillovers of 1000 will clear until June 1st 2009. Spillovers of 3000 will clear until July 2009 and spillovers of 5000 or more will clear Oct\Nov 2009. This is highly unlikely given the EB2 WW and EB1 demand. The EB1 demand can be met if sufficient spillover comes from EB3 and we may get some spillover from EB2 WW this FY if there is govt shutdown in December that will slow down the perm approvals but it may not happen. If a recession is happening then we may see a rapid movement scenarios. I wouldn't count on any of these speculative situations yet.

2) Forward movement beyond may 22nd 2009 might happen if the downgrades are higher which is highly unlikely as unlike the chinese situation EB2 INDIA folks until May 2010 have their EAD\AP cards and you cannot expect much downgrades like china. Downgrades may happen if an Eb2 Applicant has a EB3 application as well either with the same employer or different employer. However this is only influential after May 22nd 2009 as there is no clear picture of how many cases we have like this after May 22nd 2009 until Jan 1 2010. They may move forward with EB3 but this doesn't change the inventory numbers as i believe those inventory numbers are ppl who filed 485 and are waiting for their GC and doesn't capture these scenarios. Even if there are like 40% of these numbers moving forward with their EB3 application this should take EB2 dates to mid of June 2009 only. The only reason of not able to measure these will make CO decide not to move the EB2 dates beyond May 22nd 2009.

At this stage we can sit back and pray that we get spillover, shutdown happens and economy slides for us to get a GC but we also have to survive all these said above to apply for GC :-)

[rocketfast]

USCIS does not approve more that 700 Green Cards a quarter for EB3-I (unless it is the last quarter). So I am wondering what to make of the FAD movement to March 1 2009 for EB3-I. Does it mean that there is NO inventory of 700 till Jan 1 2009 and that is the reason for the FAD to move to March 1 2009? Specially, since USCIS is honoring filing dates till Oct 1 2009, what is the logic of moving FAD to March 1 2009?


Some trackitt data:
===========

Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to Dec 2008 = 124

Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to March 1 2009 = 132

Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to Oct 2009 = 156

[gcvijay]

what is the logic of moving FAD to March 1 2009?

To help EB1 folks get their spillover for this FY.

[AceMan]

Depending if USCIS does continue to honor filing dates and late 2009 EB2I filers deciding to down port, EB3I dates will continue to move forward and eventually stabilizing with EB2I - similar to what happened with China.

I may have a different take on this. We got a 2 month movement for Eb3 I in the first quarter itself. This implies, that demand has to be really low as they had the filing date moved to late 2009 for October bulletin. 45 days of data might indicate the low demand there and CO confident of moving the dates by couple of months in both FAD and FD. EB2 I till May 2010 has solid 15,000 people waiting already with AOS. They are just not going to anywhere. I am expecting EB3 I FAD reach Jan 2010 by April 2019 bulletin.

[iatiam]

I may have a different take on this. We got a 2 month movement for Eb3 I in the first quarter itself. This implies, that demand has to be really low as they had the filing date moved to late 2009 for October bulletin. 45 days of data might indicate the low demand there and CO confident of moving the dates by couple of months in both FAD and FD. EB2 I till May 2010 has solid 15,000 people waiting already with AOS. They are just not going to anywhere. I am expecting EB3 I FAD reach Jan 2010 by April 2019 bulletin.
It makes sense. There is absolutely no need to increase EB2I inventory whereas EB3I really needs a build up. The only question is if EB3I FAD moves ahead of EB2I, then what happens. Right now, there is limited downporting risks given the EB3I FAD is lagging. If it picks up, its will be a game changer.

Iatiam

[gcvijay]

Though the inventory numbers may not be affected i see beyond may 22 2009 ppl who ported with same employer\different employer using their prior valid EB3 to move forward with AOS. With that said the inventory for April 2019 for EB3 will be interesting to watch as I see the numbers grow in EB3 INDIA inventory grow for Cal Yr 2009 which paves way for EB2 INDIA to move forward for next FY 2020 albeit to only few months again.

[iatiam]

Though the inventory numbers may not be affected i see beyond may 22 2009 ppl who ported with same employer\different employer using their prior valid EB3 to move forward with AOS. With that said the inventory for April 2019 for EB3 will be interesting to watch as I see the numbers grow in EB3 INDIA inventory grow for Cal Yr 2009 which paves way for EB2 INDIA to move forward for next FY 2020 albeit to only few months again.

May and June 2009 has the highest density close to 1400. If we can get over that hump, things will get easier for rest of 2009. Recession, crackdown on immigration are all gonna help. I am optimistic about EB2I especially till 2009. EB1C restirctions are somehow outweighed by increase in EB1A and EB1B cases. The stock market is already crashing and as the tax cut stimulus wears off, these filings will also come down. I personally believe that EB India has never been in better shape since 2012.

Iatiam

[ak7419]

May and June 2009 has the highest density close to 1400. If we can get over that hump, things will get easier for rest of 2009. Recession, crackdown on immigration are all gonna help. I am optimistic about EB2I especially till 2009. EB1C restirctions are somehow outweighed by increase in EB1A and EB1B cases. The stock market is already crashing and as the tax cut stimulus wears off, these filings will also come down. I personally believe that EB India has never been in better shape since 2012.

Iatiam

Not only May and June, every month in 2009 has close to 1000 applications.

[AceMan]

May and June 2009 has the highest density close to 1400. If we can get over that hump, things will get easier for rest of 2009. Recession, crackdown on immigration are all gonna help. I am optimistic about EB2I especially till 2009. EB1C restirctions are somehow outweighed by increase in EB1A and EB1B cases. The stock market is already crashing and as the tax cut stimulus wears off, these filings will also come down. I personally believe that EB India has never been in better shape since 2012.

Iatiam

If I recall correctly March 2005 for EB3 I was the bump back in 2016-17. EB3 I moved nearly 4 years over the last 18 months. EB2 I, 14000 till May 2010. We need bucket loads of SO's here

[bloddy1]

USCIS does not approve more that 700 Green Cards a quarter for EB3-I (unless it is the last quarter). So I am wondering what to make of the FAD movement to March 1 2009 for EB3-I. Does it mean that there is NO inventory of 700 till Jan 1 2009 and that is the reason for the FAD to move to March 1 2009? Specially, since USCIS is honoring filing dates till Oct 1 2009, what is the logic of moving FAD to March 1 2009?


Some trackitt data:
===========

Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to Dec 2008 = 124

Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to March 1 2009 = 132

Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to Oct 2009 = 156

Predictable pipeline for at least 3 months, at a minimum but for the calendar year, if possible is the driver. Yes, its fair to say at mark below ~700 inventory no longer has a predictable pipeline view to engage workforce and solve for the inventory. So while the March 2009 doesnt mean there is no inventory prior, just the fact that its not enough to go from say 700 to 2000 which will keep my predictability

[texas_]

If I recall correctly March 2005 for EB3 I was the bump back in 2016-17. EB3 I moved nearly 4 years over the last 18 months. EB2 I, 14000 till May 2010. We need bucket loads of SO's here

Ace,
How much do you think of moving both FAD and FD by end of FY 2019?
Just a guesstimate!!

[GChawk]

I have EB3 with PD of Dec 21, 2010. Considering the movement in Dec bulletin for Date of filing by 3 months, Can anyone provide a realistic estimate of when I can expect my PD to be current? Thanks

[HarepathekaIntezar]

The Pending Inventory has stopped being a tool to help predictions. It is just a fudged report that does not reflect the real Inventory. But a 2 month jump in EB3 Final Date is significant. By the end of this FY, I expect EB3 Filing Dates to move into 2011 and Final Date to move into 2010 triggering a massive downgrade stampede. So, for EB2 with a PD > June 2009 and current in EB3 would be smart to downgrade to EB3.

[AceMan]

Ace,
How much do you think of moving both FAD and FD by end of FY 2019?
Just a guesstimate!!

Honestly the 2 month fad movement for Eb3 is a pleasant surprise for first quarter. They advanced Fd also to Jan 2010. It gives me hope that Eb3 might get a push forward for the January bulletin. Indicators show they might continue to respect the filing date.

By FY 2019, Eb3 FAD can be May 2010 and FD Jan 2011.

[jimmys]

what is the logic of moving FAD to March 1 2009?


They just don't see any demand for EB3-I in 2008 and early 2009. FAD Mar 1,2009 is starting only in Dec 2018. So they can send I-485 interview notices to the folks and green them in the coming quarters. Already saw several 2008 PD folks got greened in October. Hope they don't waste any visa numbers in EB3.

For EB2 downgrades to accelerate, the EB-3 FAD date has to reach mid 2010. It might happen in FY 2020. CO knew there's no immediate threat of downgrades for Indian nationals. EB-2 and EB-3 FAD dates may stabilize after May 1,2010. Until then EB-3 will roll on. EB-3 FAD may cross Oct 1,2009 in July quarter.

The prolonged FAD for EB-2 dates in 2008/2009 meant many many EB-3 applicants whose PDs were in 2008/2009 ported to EB-2. I knew a handful of people whose EB-3 PDs were in 2008/2009 but they moved to different companies and ported to EB-2.

[jimmys]

The Pending Inventory has stopped being a tool to help predictions. It is just a fudged report that does not reflect the real Inventory. But a 2 month jump in EB3 Final Date is significant. By the end of this FY, I expect EB3 Filing Dates to move into 2011 and Final Date to move into 2010 triggering a massive downgrade stampede. So, for EB2 with a PD > June 2009 and current in EB3 would be smart to downgrade to EB3.

EB2 > June 2009 would be too early of a PD to downgrade. But definitely people with >May 2010 PDs can explore options now.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

EB2 > June 2009 would be too early of a PD to downgrade. But definitely people with >May 2010 PDs can explore options now.

So are you saying EB2 will hit Apr 2010 in the next 12 months? I am saying EB2 will not move beyond June 2009 in the next 12 months.

[jimmys]

May and June 2009 has the highest density close to 1400. If we can get over that hump, things will get easier for rest of 2009. Recession, crackdown on immigration are all gonna help. I am optimistic about EB2I especially till 2009. EB1C restirctions are somehow outweighed by increase in EB1A and EB1B cases. The stock market is already crashing and as the tax cut stimulus wears off, these filings will also come down. I personally believe that EB India has never been in better shape since 2012.

Iatiam

If you look at closely the recession didn't bring that much approval for EB2-India. It's the Kazarian vs USCIS, and Family SO from previous years' that brought many thousands of SO in FY 11/12. The recession helped less PERMs in 2009. That's all. And the PERM picked up massively after 2011. Even if there's a recession it will be mild one and may not move mountains with EB-India. Just my opinion.

[jimmys]

So are you saying EB2 will hit Apr 2010 in the next 12 months? I am saying EB2 will not move beyond June 2009 in the next 12 months.

No. What I meant was most folks in EB-2 2009 already filed their I-485. To downgrade they have to file another I-140 and it can't be filed in premium. There is a risk of a RFE to check which job that currently exists. EB-3 or EB-2. It's not that big of an incentive for 2009 folks to go through the hassles.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

On another note, there is a slight difference between Chinese and Indians. Chinese tend to stick to the same employer while Indians tend to switch employers a lot more than Chinese. As a result, we have a bunch of Indians who have filed their EB3 I-140 with an ex employer and have their EB2 with their current employer and very few have the leverage with their ex employer to pursue the EB3 AOS.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

No. What I meant was most folks in EB-2 2009 already filed their I-485. To downgrade they have to file another I-140 and it can't be filed in premium. There is a risk of a RFE to check which job that currently exists. EB-3 or EB-2. It's not that big of an incentive for 2009 folks to go through the hassles.

I believe there is no bar on filing AOS in both EB2 and EB3 and you can be in both the ques at the same time. If that is the case, why not go for it? I clearly remember a few years ago when the EB3 deluge started, one applicant who had earlier filed in AOS in EB3, then upgraded to EB2 and filed AOS in EB2, he became current in both ques and he was given a choice to choose his que!

[gcvijay]

USCIS is honoring the filing dates for EB categories for December. Good luck to everyone who will be using their original EB3 petitions from May 22nd 2009 to Jan 1 2010 and hope this stabilizes the demand in EB2 INDIA going forward.

https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Next Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts

For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for December 2018.

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for December 2018.

December 2018

[gs1968]

The future of Eb2 INDIA is limited movement as mentioned by CO and he estimates it to move only until May 22 2009 per his filing dates where he expects EB2 INDIA to be in 8-12 months which is pretty much the end of this FY. Apart from that if the following scenarios happen things will change

1) Spillovers of 1000 will clear until June 1st 2009. Spillovers of 3000 will clear until July 2009 and spillovers of 5000 or more will clear Oct\Nov 2009. This is highly unlikely given the EB2 WW and EB1 demand. The EB1 demand can be met if sufficient spillover comes from EB3 and we may get some spillover from EB2 WW this FY if there is govt shutdown in December that will slow down the perm approvals but it may not happen. If a recession is happening then we may see a rapid movement scenarios. I wouldn't count on any of these speculative situations yet.

2) Forward movement beyond may 22nd 2009 might happen if the downgrades are higher which is highly unlikely as unlike the chinese situation EB2 INDIA folks until May 2010 have their EAD\AP cards and you cannot expect much downgrades like china. Downgrades may happen if an Eb2 Applicant has a EB3 application as well either with the same employer or different employer. However this is only influential after May 22nd 2009 as there is no clear picture of how many cases we have like this after May 22nd 2009 until Jan 1 2010. They may move forward with EB3 but this doesn't change the inventory numbers as i believe those inventory numbers are ppl who filed 485 and are waiting for their GC and doesn't capture these scenarios. Even if there are like 40% of these numbers moving forward with their EB3 application this should take EB2 dates to mid of June 2009 only. The only reason of not able to measure these will make CO decide not to move the EB2 dates beyond May 22nd 2009.

At this stage we can sit back and pray that we get spillover, shutdown happens and economy slides for us to get a GC but we also have to survive all these said above to apply for GC :-)

The government shutdown may not affect PERM approvals as the department of Labor spending bill has already passed and signed into law. The department is fully funded for the rest of the fiscal year and will remain open if there is a partial shutdown

[jimmys]

I believe there is no bar on filing AOS in both EB2 and EB3 and you can be in both the ques at the same time. If that is the case, why not go for it? I clearly remember a few years ago when the EB3 deluge started, one applicant who had earlier filed in AOS in EB3, then upgraded to EB2 and filed AOS in EB2, he became current in both ques and he was given a choice to choose his que!

I'm not sure if one PERM can be used to have two active I-140s. In case of EB-3 to EB-2, there are two PERMs and two I-140s involved.

[altek001]

The last pending 485 was in July. USCIS did not publish one for until October. Any thoughts if that was put and removed.

Something is really fishy when USCIS does not publish data on time

[altek001]

Let's say in the coming months or sometime this FY, EB3 filing date moves to Oct 2010.

Since my EB2 PD is in Oct 2010, when is the right time to port? i.e. Final or Filing dates move to Oct 2010?

[bikenlalan]

The last pending 485 was in July. USCIS did not publish one for until October. Any thoughts if that was put and removed.

Something is really fishy when USCIS does not publish data on time

Last years PI for October was published mid November. Hopefully they publish it in the next few days.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Last years PI for October was published mid November. Hopefully they publish it in the next few days.

PI stopped being relevant a long time ago. It is just a compilation of fudged numbers.

[AceMan]

PI stopped being relevant a long time ago. It is just a compilation of fudged numbers.

Eb2 I Pending data is very important for people from late 2009 onwards to take decisions. If the numbers have come down from 15K to a lot less then it can give better clarity.

[swordfish380]

Eb2 I Pending data is very important for people from late 2009 onwards to take decisions. If the numbers have come down from 15K to a lot less then it can give better clarity.

If you compare Eb2i January 2017 pending inventory against July
2018 pending inventory numbers , 4400 GCs were issued. So if you take this average in 18 months EB2i will reach July 2009

[AceMan]

If you compare Eb2i January 2017 pending inventory against July
2018 pending inventory numbers , 4400 GCs were issued. So if you take this average in 18 months EB2i will reach July 2009


I don't think that would be an accurate take. January 2017 - August 2017 would be in FY 2017 and they issued 1122 visa's of the 2879 total during that time.

Aug 2017 - July 2017 they issued 3300. We have to see the October pending inventory to see the start of EB2 I for FY 2019.

[swordfish380]

I don't think that would be an accurate take. January 2017 - August 2017 would be in FY 2017 and they issued 1122 visa's of the 2879 total during that time.

Aug 2017 - July 2017 they issued 3300. We have to see the October pending inventory to see the start of EB2 I for FY 2019.

The net result of date movement is reduction in inventory so if you go by that then we will see about 4,400 reduction in 18 months

[rohanvus]

I don't think that would be an accurate take. January 2017 - August 2017 would be in FY 2017 and they issued 1122 visa's of the 2879 total during that time.

Aug 2017 - July 2017 they issued 3300. We have to see the October pending inventory to see the start of EB2 I for FY 2019.

Ace,

Assuming the worst case (i.e w/o spill over) , i dont see EB2 India crossing 2010 for another five years atleast . If one is newer to this country , choice is clear that this long wait is not worth it. The most difficult situation is for the guys like us who have been more than a decade in this country and with PD hovering around 2011/2012- its very difficult not only because its tough to uproot the family for these folks esp (given the amount of investment they have done here , have kids born here and going to school ,bought homes ,etc.) but also because having a PD around 2011/2012 keeps one always hopeful that its not that far , kinda living a pipe dream . . Btw , my PD is Dec 2011(EB2) and i dont see getting GC in another decade . As i age i am making it almost impossible even to get a Canada PR

[redsox2009]

OCTOBER DOS Data total.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
030
001
005
000
002
000
073
111


EB2
021
001
000
021
121
005
169
338



EB3
015
122
046
511
064
010
511
1279


EB4
000
020
000
007
015
000
129
171


EB5
358
035
000
000
022
125
125
665


Total
424
179
051
539
224
140
1007
2564

[AceMan]

Ace,

Assuming the worst case (i.e w/o spill over) , i dont see EB2 India crossing 2010 for another five years atleast . If one is newer to this country , choice is clear that this long wait is not worth it. The most difficult situation is for the guys like us who have been more than a decade in this country and with PD hovering around 2011/2012- its very difficult not only because its tough to uproot the family for these folks esp (given the amount of investment they have done here , have kids born here and going to school ,bought homes ,etc.) but also because having a PD around 2011/2012 keeps one always hopeful that its not that far , kinda living a pipe dream . . Btw , my PD is Dec 2011(EB2) and i dont see getting GC in another decade . As i age i am making it almost impossible even to get a Canada PR


If you look at absolute numbers 2804 per year quota, to reach May 2010 it takes about 4 years. But we know that's not true. We had reached the rock bottom in 2017 when we got 2879 visas for EB2. With EB3 getting 6600 + visas in 2017, and expecting similar numbers in 2018 as well. EB3 Philippines closing on to be current.
2009 is the last year of expanded H1 applicants (195,000 1999-2003) will be done with. Once the dates are beyond that the speed will be consistent.

[iatiam]

Ace,

I join you in feeling optimistic. There was a time a few years ago when dates would retrogress or become unavailable after October. Those days are gone and we now have moderate movement. For EB2 and EB3, the density is very low in 2009 and porting is effectively over. Things are looking up in my opinion

[AceMan]

Ace,

I join you in feeling optimistic. There was a time a few years ago when dates would retrogress or become unavailable after October. Those days are gone and we now have moderate movement. For EB2 and EB3, the density is very low in 2009 and porting is effectively over. Things are looking up in my opinion

I agree, Now in December 2018, the final action dates is within 2 years and filing dates just over 1 year improved the outlook for GC within next couple of years.
Early last year when the EB3 dates were stuck at March 2005 and EB2 dates staying in 2008 for eternity, I was fretting over the possibility of GC after 2025, and the prospect of my kid aging out with my early 2011 PD in EB3.

[march1612]

If you look at absolute numbers 2804 per year quota, to reach May 2010 it takes about 4 years. But we know that's not true. We had reached the rock bottom in 2017 when we got 2879 visas for EB2. With EB3 getting 6600 + visas in 2017, and expecting similar numbers in 2018 as well. EB3 Philippines closing on to be current.
2009 is the last year of expanded H1 applicants (195,000 1999-2003) will be done with. Once the dates are beyond that the speed will be consistent.

How much spill over can we expect in FY2019 to EB2-I and EB3-I ? and what would be the Final action dates for EB2-I and EB3-I?

[AceMan]

How much spill over can we expect in FY2019 to EB2-I and EB3-I ? and what would be the Final action dates for EB2-I and EB3-I?

It depends on the demand for ROW in both categories as we expecting only horizontal so's. The downgrade noise, I don't think will be a factor in FY 2019. I anticipate May 2010 for EB3 I, August 2009 for Eb2 I to be the final date, if we go by the 2018 trend.

[lazybones]

Guys,
My Priority date July 13, 2010 in EB3
I'm planning to change the job, for me filing 485 is equally important.
Can you please predict, when I can file my i485?

Thanks

[ferric]

Does anyone have any other sources that back up this claim in the blog post about downgrading?
https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2018/11/01/eb-2-to-eb-3-india-downgrading-to-benefit-from-earlier-priority-date-how-and-when-to-do-it-2/

"Furthermore, normally, USCIS does not allow premium processing where the I-140 petition is being filed without an “original” (blue paper) PERM Labor Certification; however, there is a limited exception which would allow requesting premium processing for I-140s filed without an original PERM Labor Certification if the new I-140 is being filed with the same service center as the prior I-140."

A quick google search yields nothing...

[bloddy1]

Guys,
My Priority date July 13, 2010 in EB3
I'm planning to change the job, for me filing 485 is equally important.
Can you please predict, when I can file my i485?

Thanks

A month difference in final date translates to 6 months of GC timeframe, hence expect to be a large number of downgraders. Based on that, here is my analysis on movement rest of the fiscal year 2019 for EB3, with Mar2019 as a significant inflection point because that is when EB3 Final will be significantly (more than a month) ahead of EB2 Final.

The movement of filing dates will be aggressive for EB3 every couple months to feed the pipeline and that will stop/slow down significantly once it crosses over into PD May 2010. So around May2019 bulletin, filing date will crossover into May 2010 (may be May15-30th) and EB3 final date into July/August 2009. Given there are ~3000 folks in that period plus downgrades of around ~1000, it will feed the service center/field office backlog for rest of the 2019 fiscal year.

It will remain there for at least until inventory numbers fall below ~700 in the Total EB2/3 pipeline. So that means Final date will be moved at an average of 2-weeks across both categories. Filing date will be 8-9 months ahead of Final, especially for EB3. So as of Oct-2019, Filing for EB3 will be May 31st, 2010 and Final will be Sept 1, 2009. It will stagnate significantly/move 2weeks per bulletin from there on.

[bloddy1]

It depends on the demand for ROW in both categories as we expecting only horizontal so's. The downgrade noise, I don't think will be a factor in FY 2019. I anticipate May 2010 for EB3 I, August 2009 for Eb2 I to be the final date, if we go by the 2018 trend.

While I agree the outlook has gotten better in 2018, you have to take the short term trend (so far in 2018 and last few months), as an exclusion because this is not a sustainable trend over long term. I think we are in a EB3 goldilocks period because EB2s are locked into that EB2 pipeline leaving open field for EB3. That's about to change when EB3 Final is 2-3 months ahead of Eb2 final in next few months. A large number of "EB2 lock-ins" will be spurred to downgrade or use existing EB3 PERMs.

Basically, first half of fiscal 2019 is a set-up/ramp-up for predictable second half of 2019, so all numbers are used. When we get to the end of fiscal year, SOFAD being the unknown, Eb3 will not have the open field it did in first half 2019.

[iatiam]

While I agree the outlook has gotten better in 2018, you have to take the short term trend (so far in 2018 and last few months), as an exclusion because this is not a sustainable trend over long term. I think we are in a EB3 goldilocks period because EB2s are locked into that EB2 pipeline leaving open field for EB3. That's about to change when EB3 Final is 2-3 months ahead of Eb2 final in next few months. A large number of "EB2 lock-ins" will be spurred to downgrade or use existing EB3 PERMs.

Basically, first half of fiscal 2019 is a set-up/ramp-up for predictable second half of 2019, so all numbers are used. When we get to the end of fiscal year, SOFAD being the unknown, Eb3 will not have the open field it did in first half 2019.

Nice work! With no data to back up, I am optimistic that EB2I will clear 2009 and will open the floodgates end of next CY. Also, can I request you to put the legends on the graph

[greenzone]

We have to see how many numbers EB3 can get in FY2019. will it be around 6k? Assuming we will get 6k+ including horizontal spillover, dont you think CO will move dates aggressively to build an inventory of 10k?

[AceMan]

While I agree the outlook has gotten better in 2018, you have to take the short term trend (so far in 2018 and last few months), as an exclusion because this is not a sustainable trend over long term. I think we are in a EB3 goldilocks period because EB2s are locked into that EB2 pipeline leaving open field for EB3. That's about to change when EB3 Final is 2-3 months ahead of Eb2 final in next few months. A large number of "EB2 lock-ins" will be spurred to downgrade or use existing EB3 PERMs.

Basically, first half of fiscal 2019 is a set-up/ramp-up for predictable second half of 2019, so all numbers are used. When we get to the end of fiscal year, SOFAD being the unknown, Eb3 will not have the open field it did in first half 2019.

Eb2 original filers till May 2010 with EAD have no incentive to port down. That means we can safely exclude the 15 K people currently in the inventory as potential Eb3 users. Spec's fact and data had about 38K PERMS for 2009/10. We had about 4 K 2009 PD greened in 2014. Out of the 38 K due to attrition, duplicate filing, spouses, I will dare to say that we have only under 50% of that list in the primaries which would be about 18 K, add about a dependent we have around 35 K total people in both Eb2/3. Reduce the 15K already with AOS and 4 K already greened, we have only about 16 K in total for EB2/3 for both 2009/2010. With almost every category current in Eb3 and Philippines closing in, it is very much in cards that EB3 I might end up with more than 10 K in 2019 if they advance the dates rapidly.

I took the liberty of using lot of educated assumptions.

Eb2 downgrades are only going to come in picture from FY 2020.

[lville]

My PD EB2-I May 22,2009

Well... just talked with my Lawyer this afternoon. I had two important questions I needed to be addressed
1. Could we start Eb3 downgrade only if we are able to do premium processing of I-140. Since there is no Perm involved with downgrade, my lawyer said it depends on the officer whether to accept premium process.
2. Just in case if there was any issue during downgrade like RFE or other unforeseen issues, is my EB2 safe to fall back to ? He said EB2 will only be cancelled once EB3 is accepted. And that way my EB2 is safe.

So looks like I'll wait till next bulletin to come out and start the downgrade process.
Funny thing is I moved cross country, got a new job and switched from Eb3 to Eb2 just 2 months ago.lol

[Maxray]

Eb2 original filers till May 2010 with EAD have no incentive to port down. That means we can safely exclude the 15 K people currently in the inventory as potential Eb3 users. Spec's fact and data had about 38K PERMS for 2009/10. We had about 4 K 2009 PD greened in 2014. Out of the 38 K due to attrition, duplicate filing, spouses, I will dare to say that we have only under 50% of that list in the primaries which would be about 18 K, add about a dependent we have around 35 K total people in both Eb2/3. Reduce the 15K already with AOS and 4 K already greened, we have only about 16 K in total for EB2/3 for both 2009/2010. With almost every category current in Eb3 and Philippines closing in, it is very much in cards that EB3 I might end up with more than 10 K in 2019 if they advance the dates rapidly.

I took the liberty of using lot of educated assumptions.

Eb2 downgrades are only going to come in picture from FY 2020.


Also there is the added time for interviews, i guess with downgrade EB2 guys will have to go through the interview process for people with EAD.

[EB2/eb3]

My PD EB2-I May 22,2009

Well... just talked with my Lawyer this afternoon. I had two important questions I needed to be addressed
1. Could we start Eb3 downgrade only if we are able to do premium processing of I-140. Since there is no Perm involved with downgrade, my lawyer said it depends on the officer whether to accept premium process.
2. Just in case if there was any issue during downgrade like RFE or other unforeseen issues, is my EB2 safe to fall back to ? He said EB2 will only be cancelled once EB3 is accepted. And that way my EB2 is safe.

So looks like I'll wait till next bulletin to come out and start the downgrade process.
Funny thing is I moved cross country, got a new job and switched from Eb3 to Eb2 just 2 months ago.lol
With your PD, EB2/eb3 you will be greened by end of the fiscal year!

[iatiam]

Also there is the added time for interviews, i guess with downgrade EB2 guys will have to go through the interview process for people with EAD.
This is not correct. Once 485 is filed no interview is needed

[qesehmk]

This is not correct. Once 485 is filed no interview is needed

That may be generally true but my understanding is that USCIS will interview you if they want to.

[gcvijay]

This is not correct. Once 485 is filed no interview is needed

yes few of my peers who had their AOS filed in 2012 with feb 2009 and Dec 2008 was asked to attend the interview and were later sent green card.

On a different note do we know why the pending inventory release is getting delayed?

[iatiam]

yes few of my peers who had their AOS filed in 2012 with feb 2009 and Dec 2008 was asked to attend the interview and were later sent green card.
There might be exceptions but pretty much everyone I know who had filed AoS in 2011-2012 and were current in the last six months got greened without GCs. Note that none of them work in IT. USCIS might be looking for IT related professions for interviews

[bloddy1]

Nice work! With no data to back up, I am optimistic that EB2I will clear 2009 and will open the floodgates end of next CY. Also, can I request you to put the legends on the graph

Updated!


Thanks

[AceMan]

This is not correct. Once 485 is filed no interview is needed

If a person applies for a new 485, he will have to go through mandated interview. I don't think people are mad enough to downgrade to EB3 from EB2 if they already had an EAD from a pending 485.

[gcvijay]

well they have their own problems I have many friends who had AOS from 2012 and have done multiple EAD\AP renewals on their money and they will trade them for an interview and get their GC faster instead of doing one or two more EAD\AP renewals.

[iatiam]

well they have their own problems I have many friends who had AOS from 2012 and have done multiple EAD\AP renewals on their money and they will trade them for an interview and get their GC faster instead of doing one or two more EAD\AP renewals.

I don't think you need to pay money for AP/EAD renewal. I did it once and did not pay any money. The company attorney takes care of it now.

Iatiam

[gcvijay]

I don't think you need to pay money for AP/EAD renewal. I did it once and did not pay any money. The company attorney takes care of it now.

Iatiam

Well there are few folks working on the EVC model and 80/20 contracts for a vendor as full time and those ppl are doing it by themselves at their own cost.

Also the latest CO predictions say that it will take 5 yrs to clear EB2 INDIA until Jan 2011

[AceMan]

well they have their own problems I have many friends who had AOS from 2012 and have done multiple EAD\AP renewals on their money and they will trade them for an interview and get their GC faster instead of doing one or two more EAD\AP renewals.

I can safely say, they are bluffing, just to show you that they are not really comfortable as you think. You even said lot of them in EVC model, and they are ready to do a full interview after filing for I-140/485 (the cost factor way more than EAD/AP renewal, any RFE's extra) in Eb3 while in Eb2 they can safely get the GC in mail.

[Maxray]

well they have their own problems I have many friends who had AOS from 2012 and have done multiple EAD\AP renewals on their money and they will trade them for an interview and get their GC faster instead of doing one or two more EAD\AP renewals.

Going for interview is not the biggest thing, the wait time associated with it based on the region they are located will make a big difference. Besides anybody with a PD greater than mid 2010 should probably think about it. The question here was will Eb2 guys from late 2009 upto 2010 make this jump.

[EB2/eb3]

well they have their own problems I have many friends who had AOS from 2012 and have done multiple EAD\AP renewals on their money and they will trade them for an interview and get their GC faster instead of doing one or two more EAD\AP renewals.
It makes sense for people with 2010 PD to downgrade, 2009 people will get their GCs around the same time in either category. 6 more months in the current line Or 6 more months in the downgrade route is their choice.

[tenyearsgone]

I can safely say, they are bluffing, just to show you that they are not really comfortable as you think. You even said lot of them in EVC model, and they are ready to do a full interview after filing for I-140/485 (the cost factor way more than EAD/AP renewal, any RFE's extra) in Eb3 while in Eb2 they can safely get the GC in mail.

I know of a few people who would take that small risk rather than wait another 3-4 years given the current pace of EB2I. IMHO, although people with EAD have some advantages, there are a fair number of problems with EAD renewals. After 5 or 6 EAD renewals, people do tire of the nervousness that comes every 1.5 years or earlier and would rather face a interview if their EVC or EC model is stable.

[AceMan]

I know of a few people who would take that small risk rather than wait another 3-4 years given the current pace of EB2I. IMHO, although people with EAD have some advantages, there are a fair number of problems with EAD renewals. After 5 or 6 EAD renewals, people do tire of the nervousness that comes every 1.5 years or earlier and would rather face a interview if their EVC or EC model is stable.

I can assure you, there will be none, nada, zilch. All these brave hearts will talk big to the people who have not filed for EAD. When the filing dates are ahead they will say they will downgrade when the Final Action dates are past. When the final action dates are past they will say will wait for few months. After 2 months they will be still on research and finally come up with some lawyer report stating RFE's, I485 denied, wrong 485 denied. They are simply better off with their current nervousness compared to any of the above scenarios.

Till May 2010, people in EB2 with EAD, none of them are going to downgrade to EB3.

[kisvasa]

If that is the case, will EB3 move faster ?? With no down grades assumption.... what would your prediction be for April 2011 - EB3 ?

[iatiam]

Well there are few folks working on the EVC model and 80/20 contracts for a vendor as full time and those ppl are doing it by themselves at their own cost.

Also the latest CO predictions say that it will take 5 yrs to clear EB2 INDIA until Jan 2011

It doesn't cost any money if you do it yourselves. And it's a simple enough form to hire anyone to do it.

Iatiam

[tenyearsgone]

I can assure you, there will be none, nada, zilch. All these brave hearts will talk big to the people who have not filed for EAD. When the filing dates are ahead they will say they will downgrade when the Final Action dates are past. When the final action dates are past they will say will wait for few months. After 2 months they will be still on research and finally come up with some lawyer report stating RFE's, I485 denied, wrong 485 denied. They are simply better off with their current nervousness compared to any of the above scenarios.

Till May 2010, people in EB2 with EAD, none of them are going to downgrade to EB3.

Thanks AceMan, but sometimes you have to be in someone else's situation to better understand. In this case we are talking of people who have already been in line for ~10 years and have come close to or faced job termination etc due to delayed EAD renewals multiple times. Call them brave hearts or nervous .. not everyone is blessed with fortitude to handle such situations repeteadly. If there's a legal way to move ahead, people should certainly explore it. It's the same with folks who do a EB1 or go back to India or whatever else to get closure sooner.

[AceMan]

Thanks AceMan, but sometimes you have to be in someone else's situation to better understand. In this case we are talking of people who have already been in line for ~10 years and have come close to or faced job termination etc due to delayed EAD renewals multiple times. Call them brave hearts or nervous .. not everyone is blessed with fortitude to handle such situations repeteadly. If there's a legal way to move ahead, people should certainly explore it. It's the same with folks who do a EB1 or go back to India or whatever else to get closure sooner.

I am also in the country for 11 years, I also know people here for 15 years with 2011 PD's and no chance to file for EAD yet.
The EAD renewal issue has been fixed already, so lets not worry about the past issues. Those people already have a secured path compared to others who face the uncertainty of H1 renewals, even if renewed then renewed for only 1 year or just the project duration.

I have no problem if an EB2 person from 2010 downgrading to EB3 if he has not filed for EAD yet. They have been waiting for long and it makes sense for them to opt for a subset of their skills.

People with I-485 filed need to know that when they file another 485, one of the petition gets denied. Eb2 people already with an EAD/I-485 petition trying to downgrade to EB3, causes unnecessary clutter to the queue, above all causes damage for themselves also.

In any case people do what that feel appropriate or right for themselves. People can hog on to 2 chairs, claiming that they paid for it.

[Desi Dude]

My PD EB2-I May 22,2009

Well... just talked with my Lawyer this afternoon. I had two important questions I needed to be addressed
1. Could we start Eb3 downgrade only if we are able to do premium processing of I-140. Since there is no Perm involved with downgrade, my lawyer said it depends on the officer whether to accept premium process.
2. Just in case if there was any issue during downgrade like RFE or other unforeseen issues, is my EB2 safe to fall back to ? He said EB2 will only be cancelled once EB3 is accepted. And that way my EB2 is safe.

So looks like I'll wait till next bulletin to come out and start the downgrade process.
Funny thing is I moved cross country, got a new job and switched from Eb3 to Eb2 just 2 months ago.lol


If you already have EB2 I-140 & EB3 I-140 then why do you need to file anything? Shouldn't you just send an email to USCIS asking to use EB3 I-140 and it's PD instead? I mean, that's how people did the upgrades then why is it different for downgrades?

[GCdreamz]

Check-In by Charlie. EB3I FD is going to overtake EB2I next month or in few months.

https://www.murthy.com/2018/11/28/december-2018-visa-bulletin-check-in-distressing-long-term-prediction-for-eb2-india/

Next question is by how many months will EB3I overtake EB2I? I think EB3I FD will be around Jan 2010

And DOF movement in FY 19? I think August 2010

These are my conservative estimates.

[bloddy1]

Eb2 original filers till May 2010 with EAD have no incentive to port down. That means we can safely exclude the 15 K people currently in the inventory as potential Eb3 users. Spec's fact and data had about 38K PERMS for 2009/10. We had about 4 K 2009 PD greened in 2014. Out of the 38 K due to attrition, duplicate filing, spouses, I will dare to say that we have only under 50% of that list in the primaries which would be about 18 K, add about a dependent we have around 35 K total people in both Eb2/3. Reduce the 15K already with AOS and 4 K already greened, we have only about 16 K in total for EB2/3 for both 2009/2010. With almost every category current in Eb3 and Philippines closing in, it is very much in cards that EB3 I might end up with more than 10 K in 2019 if they advance the dates rapidly.

I took the liberty of using lot of educated assumptions.

Eb2 downgrades are only going to come in picture from FY 2020.

Three things;
Demand Destruction may be a myth! Likely my famous last words. At a minimum, don't think there is as much destruction but guru's here have way better understanding of it.

Secondly, I actually think there is way more motivation to downgrade to EB3 and as you say it will start hitting at start of FY2020 timeframe, which is when Final Dates would be favorable to do so.

Finally, SOFAD is what can change the course of Eb3/2 significantly. If either receive even minimal SOFAD, then good chance things will keep moving rather than stagnating.

[tenyearsgone]

I am also in the country for 11 years, I also know people here for 15 years with 2011 PD's and no chance to file for EAD yet.
The EAD renewal issue has been fixed already, so lets not worry about the past issues. Those people already have a secured path compared to others who face the uncertainty of H1 renewals, even if renewed then renewed for only 1 year or just the project duration.

I have no problem if an EB2 person from 2010 downgrading to EB3 if he has not filed for EAD yet. They have been waiting for long and it makes sense for them to opt for a subset of their skills.

People with I-485 filed need to know that when they file another 485, one of the petition gets denied. Eb2 people already with an EAD/I-485 petition trying to downgrade to EB3, causes unnecessary clutter to the queue, above all causes damage for themselves also.

In any case people do what that feel appropriate or right for themselves. People can hog on to 2 chairs, claiming that they paid for it.

Personally, I'll be hitting the 20-yr mark soon enough .. and our perspectives are colored by our own experiences/situations. Nothing wrong in that.

[mar2010er]

Hi guys, I was EB3I with PD 3/2010. I moved companies and upgraded to EB2I, did not get EAD as the dates receded back. Do you think at this point I should proactively downgrade to EB3I at this point.

[rocketfast]

Check-In by Charlie. EB3I FD is going to overtake EB2I next month or in few months.

https://www.murthy.com/2018/11/28/de...for-eb2-india/


From the link:


The cutoff date for EB3 India is only a month behind the cutoff date for EB2 India. In the coming months, Mr. Oppenheim anticipates that EB3 India will advance past the EB2 India cutoff date, which could lead to the EB3-to-EB2 downgrade filings that have been common in these categories for China.

So looks like CO believes that people with EB2-I < May 2010 will downgrade by a large margin. It may be a bad mistake.


While attending a recent conference, Mr. Oppenheim also provided a more long-term prediction for the EB2 India category. Based on the number of pending I-485s in this category, he expects it to take about five years to process all of the EB2 India cases with priority dates that are earlier than January 2011.

If he believes that there will be a lot of downgrades from EB2 to EB3, it may be a good assumption to say that he thinks it is a single queue needing 5 years to clear 2010. At 10k GCs a year, he probably thinks that there is a demand of 50k in EB2+EB3.

[AceMan]

Personally, I'll be hitting the 20-yr mark soon enough .. and our perspectives are colored by our own experiences/situations. Nothing wrong in that.

Very true, things which I see as rosy and bed of flowers for an EAD holder, may not be accurate from that side of the fence.

Having said that, I don't think this downward porting should be a concern at all. All it contains is a very minor subset of the crowd of under 9000 (Sep 09 - May 10) who may try the EB3 route if the final dates go beyond their dates.

[iatiam]

From the link:



So looks like CO believes that people with EB2-I < May 2010 will downgrade by a large margin. It may be a bad mistake.



If he believes that there will be a lot of downgrades from EB2 to EB3, it may be a good assumption to say that he thinks it is a single queue needing 5 years to clear 2010. At 10k GCs a year, he probably thinks that there is a demand of 50k in EB2+EB3.

My PD is EB2I Aug 2009 and I have filed 485. I have initiated downgrade from EB2 to EB3 and the lawyer will hopefully get started early next year. More than me the company management wants this done. They are tired of paying for all the attorney fees. And why not? If QA testers can claim to be multi-national managers, why can't I use a legal method to move things faster.

Everything is justified in love, war and immigration.

Iatiam

[knighthood83]

From the link:



So looks like CO believes that people with EB2-I < May 2010 will downgrade by a large margin. It may be a bad mistake.



If he believes that there will be a lot of downgrades from EB2 to EB3, it may be a good assumption to say that he thinks it is a single queue needing 5 years to clear 2010. At 10k GCs a year, he probably thinks that there is a demand of 50k in EB2+EB3.

I think his assessment was if people dont downgrade. Purely based on current demand in EB2 and current supply of green cards.

[dev2010]

My PD is EB2I Aug 2009 and I have filed 485. I have initiated downgrade from EB2 to EB3 and the lawyer will hopefully get started early next year. More than me the company management wants this done. They are tired of paying for all the attorney fees. And why not? If QA testers can claim to be multi-national managers, why can't I use a legal method to move things faster.

Everything is justified in love, war and immigration.

Iatiam

Well said. Everything is relative to what suits one. People who scream about EB1 abuse but just need to take a pause and think if they would have jumped on it had that option been available to them.

[YTeleven]

Check-In by Charlie. EB3I FD is going to overtake EB2I next month or in few months.

https://www.murthy.com/2018/11/28/december-2018-visa-bulletin-check-in-distressing-long-term-prediction-for-eb2-india/

Next question is by how many months will EB3I overtake EB2I? I think EB3I FD will be around Jan 2010

And DOF movement in FY 19? I think August 2010

These are my conservative estimates.

We already predicted this in the beginning of CY18 based on FY17 data here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58922#post58922
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58931#post58931

In my opinion EB3-I will be always ahead of EB2-I for next one decade with minor retrogression whenever there is a downward porting pressure kicks in periodically. How much it will advance compare to EB2-I it depends on how much downward porting rate. If downward porting is zero then EB3-I may zoom to 2011 PDs by next year. If there is significant downward porting then it might be just few months advancer than EB2-I.

[swordfish380]

"While attending a recent conference, Mr. Oppenheim also provided a more long-term prediction for the EB2 India category. Based on the number of pending I-485s in this category, he expects it to take about five years to process all of the EB2 India cases with priority dates that are earlier than January 2011. Therefore, regardless of how quickly the EB2 India category advances in the short-term, it appears that Indians with priority dates of January 2011 and later have quite a wait ahead of them"

This is from Murthy's site. I think "2011"is a typo. Do you guys agree? It should be 2010.

[maverick23]

"While attending a recent conference, Mr. Oppenheim also provided a more long-term prediction for the EB2 India category. Based on the number of pending I-485s in this category, he expects it to take about five years to process all of the EB2 India cases with priority dates that are earlier than January 2011. Therefore, regardless of how quickly the EB2 India category advances in the short-term, it appears that Indians with priority dates of January 2011 and later have quite a wait ahead of them"

This is from Murthy's site. I think "2011"is a typo. Do you guys agree? It should be 2010.

Frankly, no body checks the math and accuracy behind predictions these days for the backlogged legal immigrant community. Each month, it is a mere speculation on behalf of DOS based on volume and supply. A simple calculation of Pending EB2-I inventory between April 2009 and May 2010 (since Dec bulletin has EB2-I FD at 04.01.09) divided by the yearly quota giveS you the 5 year number referred in Murthy's article.

14216/2804 = 5 years

[altek001]

Frankly, no body checks the math and accuracy behind predictions these days for the backlogged legal immigrant community. Each month, it is a mere speculation on behalf of DOS based on volume and supply. A simple calculation of Pending EB2-I inventory between April 2009 and May 2010 (since Dec bulletin has EB2-I FD at 04.01.09) divided by the yearly quota giveS you the 5 year number referred in Murthy's article.

14216/2804 = 5 years

As Mark Twain said, 'The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially with respect to future'.

No one can accurately predict the future, but it's still helpful to read predictions that pundits have made in this forum.

[qesehmk]

As Mark Twain said, 'The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially with respect to future'.


Haa haa haa!

Here is another favorite of mine by him - “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”

[texas_]

We already predicted this in the beginning of CY18 based on FY17 data here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58922#post58922
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58931#post58931

In my opinion EB3-I will be always ahead of EB2-I for next one decade with minor retrogression whenever there is a downward porting pressure kicks in periodically. How much it will advance compare to EB2-I it depends on how much downward porting rate. If downward porting is zero then EB3-I may zoom to 2011 PDs by next year. If there is significant downward porting then it might be just few months advancer than EB2-I.


Hi YT.

Mine is third week of October 2010 in EB3. Do you think at least FD would move to this date in next 1 year?

[ak7419]

Very true, things which I see as rosy and bed of flowers for an EAD holder, may not be accurate from that side of the fence.

Having said that, I don't think this downward porting should be a concern at all. All it contains is a very minor subset of the crowd of under 9000 (Sep 09 - May 10) who may try the EB3 route if the final dates go beyond their dates.

@Aceman My PD is Sep 2009, you think I would have to wait for 3 more years?

[iatiam]

@Aceman My PD is Sep 2009, you think I would have to wait for 3 more years?

Three years? You definitely can be pessimistic but this is taking pessimism to a whole new level.

[AceMan]

@Aceman My PD is Sep 2009, you think I would have to wait for 3 more years?

Eb2 September 2009 by FY19 end

[EB2/eb3]

@Aceman My PD is Sep 2009, you think I would have to wait for 3 more years?
Like how EB2 moved 2.5 months in the last quarter of fy18, we can expect something similar in fy19. We will have a more clear pic once we know how many EB2s were allocated in 2018, that report usually comes out in January.

[iatiam]

Like how EB2 moved 2.5 months in the last quarter of fy18, we can expect something similar in fy19. We will have a more clear pic once we know how many EB2s were allocated in 2018, that report usually comes out in January.

Things will change once EB3 Final Action Date crosses EB2 date. For one it will stop all porting. Secondly all those people who could never file for 485 will move to EB3 instead of EB2. Third some people who already filed 485 but dates were not current will down-grade. These people have an advantage over EB3I folks who were never current - they don't need to do interviews. This lag in the system will change the dynamics completely.

The only thing that is missing is the reduction in PERM numbers due to H1B rejections. Just a matter of time before that happens. Overall we are in the best shape since 2012. The next one year expect to see some roller coaster movements.

[AceMan]

Things will change once EB3 Final Action Date crosses EB2 date. For one it will stop all porting. Secondly all those people who could never file for 485 will move to EB3 instead of EB2. Third some people who already filed 485 but dates were not current will down-grade. These people have an advantage over EB3I folks who were never current - they don't need to do interviews. This lag in the system will change the dynamics completely.

I think you might want to check on that. Any I-485 applications after March 2017 will need mandatory interview. It is in the best interest of the applicant who already have a pending 485 and EAD to stay put. Unlike multiple approved I-140's you can have only 1 approved I-485.

There has been many instances in the past where the candidates have got notices to rescind even after getting their GC's.

[iatiam]

I think you might want to check on that. Any I-485 applications after March 2017 will need mandatory interview. It is in the best interest of the applicant who already have a pending 485 and EAD to stay put. Unlike multiple approved I-140's you can have only 1 approved I-485.

There has been many instances in the past where the candidates have got notices to rescind even after getting their GC's.
of course you don't need an interview if the case was filed before March 2017. I am not talking about multiple 485s here, I am talking about multiple I140s. If there are more than one 485, one will get rejected. The only step needed is to send a letter to USCIS and attach the new 140 asking them to consider it.

If there were so many rejections, why would all those Chinese people downgrade

[srimurthy]

Things will change once EB3 Final Action Date crosses EB2 date. For one it will stop all porting. Secondly all those people who could never file for 485 will move to EB3 instead of EB2. Third some people who already filed 485 but dates were not current will down-grade. These people have an advantage over EB3I folks who were never current - they don't need to do interviews. This lag in the system will change the dynamics completely.

The only thing that is missing is the reduction in PERM numbers due to H1B rejections. Just a matter of time before that happens. Overall we are in the best shape since 2012. The next one year expect to see some roller coaster movements.

Is it going to be that easy? I have a PD of Sep/2010 in EB2 and never got a chance to file 485, moved companies two years back and got PERM approved and 140 filed. Now if I plan to file for 485 in EB3, I need to do the PERM and also I-140 again and filing with the same employer for a lower position may not be that easy is my take.

[AceMan]

of course you don't need an interview if the case was filed before March 2017. I am not talking about multiple 485s here, I am talking about multiple I140s. If there are more than one 485, one will get rejected. The only step needed is to send a letter to USCIS and attach the new 140 asking them to consider it.

If there were so many rejections, why would all those Chinese people downgrade

To make it clear, I am talking about only the people in Eb2 till May 2010 who already have an EAD. People whom I am talking about already got an I-485 filed back in 2012.

All the other people after Aug 2009, in Eb2 without 485 filed are better off downgrading.

Multiple I-140s ok. Multiple I-485’s not ok as only one will get approved.

[iatiam]

Is it going to be that easy? I have a PD of Sep/2010 in EB2 and never got a chance to file 485, moved companies two years back and got PERM approved and 140 filed. Now if I plan to file for 485 in EB3, I need to do the PERM and also I-140 again and filing with the same employer for a lower position may not be that easy is my take.

Have you talked to an attorney? I would find a competent one and talk as soon as possible. Trust me, there are many, many people in your situation right now with multiple petitions. The quicker you move, the easier it is. In the time of Trumps and Millers, your best bet is to file for 485 at the next chance.

[EB2/eb3]

Is it going to be that easy? I have a PD of Sep/2010 in EB2 and never got a chance to file 485, moved companies two years back and got PERM approved and 140 filed. Now if I plan to file for 485 in EB3, I need to do the PERM and also I-140 again and filing with the same employer for a lower position may not be that easy is my take.
I would suggest to wait for few months to see how FADs are moving. With sep 2010 PD you have lot of time to make the decision

[aquatican]

Whats amazing to me is that USCIS is still not publishing the Pending Inventory report for October and its almost December.
I wonder if they don't have the numbers ready or just too lazy to upload the PDF? :)

[bikenlalan]

Maybe they are gathering data from FO's to make it meaningful. 'wishful thinking'.

[eaglenow]

To make it clear, I am talking about only the people in Eb2 till May 2010 who already have an EAD. People whom I am talking about already got an I-485 filed back in 2012.

All the other people after Aug 2009, in Eb2 without 485 filed are better off downgrading.

Multiple I-140s ok. Multiple I-485’s not ok as only one will get approved.

There is always only one 485. Multiples not allowed. If you want to send another, you must withdraw already filed one and then file the new 485.

Having said that, if one has already filed 485, there is no need to file another separate 485 in any case. You just need to send an email to uscis requesting them to switch to a different underlying form 140. So if you have 2 140s and you filed 485 using your first 140 and the second one becomes current, all you need to do is send email to uscis requesting them to associate your pending 485 to the second 140.

As an example when I filed 485, I already had 2 140s, one in eb3 and another one in EB2 from the same employer. Either the lawyer sent the eb3 140 copy instead of EB2 140 or uscis misplaced the EB2 140 copy. No idea what happened, but the 485 receipt notice had eb3 preference category. But EB3 was not current, only EB2 was at that time.

The lawyer mentioned that since eb3 was not current, Uscis should have rejeced and returned the application as per process. Since they accepted it, they must have my EB2 information in their system and hence accepted it. Regardless that same month the lawyer sent another letter with both EB2 and eb3 140 copies to uscis along with a cover letter requesting correction of preference classification on the 485 to EB2 and that EB2 140 be correctly associated to the 485.

I later logged an SR while my EB2 dates were still current to check preference classification and also validated it with L2 officer that EB2 140 was associated to my 485 and got it confirmed.

Now for folks who have already filed EB2, there are 2 options. They can file a new perm, 140 in eb3 and once approved, send letter or email to uscis asking them to associate the new eb3 140 to their pending 485.

The second option is to amend the existing EB2 140 and request the preference classification of 140 be changed to eb3 instead of EB2. In this case no new perm needed. Any EB2 140 can be downgraded to eb3 as the qualifications for EB2 automatically satisfy eb3 as well. In fact this is specifically called out as one of the scenarios where a 140 application can be filed without the perm certification attached (as the original perm would have been sent with the original 140).
Once uscis adjudicates the 140 and approves it as eb3, you are all set.

After that just send an email or letter to uscis requesting them to adjudicate 485 based on the approved amended 140 under eb3.

This is the downgrade process in a nutshell.

Some feel there is a slight risk with second option, some feel first option is riskier. In my view both carry some limited risk depending on the type of employment, salary range, employer etc (the usual stuff). Either way, the downgrade process is not the same as filing new 485.

As for interviews for downgrades of pending 485, no one can say for certain till someone tries it. Technically you are not filing a new 485 and so many expect that there will be no interviews needed.

[gamma2]

We already predicted this in the beginning of CY18 based on FY17 data here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58922#post58922
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58931#post58931

In my opinion EB3-I will be always ahead of EB2-I for next one decade with minor retrogression whenever there is a downward porting pressure kicks in periodically. How much it will advance compare to EB2-I it depends on how much downward porting rate. If downward porting is zero then EB3-I may zoom to 2011 PDs by next year. If there is significant downward porting then it might be just few months advancer than EB2-I.

When do you expect Mar 2010 to be current? I have my EAD going fine but greencard wait has been going on for ~7 years now

[lville]

With your PD, EB2/eb3 you will be greened by end of the fiscal year!

Can't do. I do not work for employer through which I had my EB3-I approval. I have moved cross country and have new employer who filed under EB2. My only hope is that I'm able to apply under premium processing for my downgrade I-140 to EB3. If they do not accept it under premium, I'll have to cancel thr process and wait in EB2 for another few months until my date gets current under EB2.

[GCdreamz]

Hi Experts,

I have few questions related to EB3 to EB2 downgrade. Hope the questions & answers will be helpful for others too.

Q1: Do you recommend concurrent filing of I140 & I485 when date is current and downgrading to EB3? What is the average time to get EAD?
Q2: Since premium I140 processing is not available (mostly) when downgrading to EB3, is it advisable to apply I140 before date is current and be ready to file I485 when date is current and I140 is approved? Just hoping to speedup the process.
Q3: If we apply I140 before date is current and if it is in pending status when date is current, can we still apply I485 or should we wait till I140 is approved?
Q4: If EB3 downgrade is approved/denied can we still go back to EB2 (same employer)
Q4: To avoid any hiccups, is it advisable to file another PERM under EB3 with same employer?

[Blue_fairy]

Here is my situation..
Me: EB2 PD Oct 2009.
Wife: EB3 PD Sept 2009
With me as primary, we got our EADs back in 2012.

With the way EB2/EB3 dates are moving, it's almost certain that sept EB3 will happen before Oct EB2. My question is when that happens, will we have to file 485 for both of us again with my wife as the primary? If yes, do you think doing so will get us the GC faster compared to doing not hu ing and waiting for EB2 PD to advance to Oct 2009?

[AceMan]

There is always only one 485. Multiples not allowed. If you want to send another, you must withdraw already filed one and then file the new 485.

Having said that, if one has already filed 485, there is no need to file another separate 485 in any case. You just need to send an email to uscis requesting them to switch to a different underlying form 140. So if you have 2 140s and you filed 485 using your first 140 and the second one becomes current, all you need to do is send email to uscis requesting them to associate your pending 485 to the second 140.

As an example when I filed 485, I already had 2 140s, one in eb3 and another one in EB2 from the same employer. Either the lawyer sent the eb3 140 copy instead of EB2 140 or uscis misplaced the EB2 140 copy. No idea what happened, but the 485 receipt notice had eb3 preference category. But EB3 was not current, only EB2 was at that time.


You only had multiple I140's and not a previously filed I-485. Your lawyer applied for first I-485 with EB3-140 papers instead of EB2-140. He also corrected it by sending the correct EB2 papers in the same month. It was an error correction.



The lawyer mentioned that since eb3 was not current, Uscis should have rejeced and returned the application as per process. Since they accepted it, they must have my EB2 information in their system and hence accepted it. Regardless that same month the lawyer sent another letter with both EB2 and eb3 140 copies to uscis along with a cover letter requesting correction of preference classification on the 485 to EB2 and that EB2 140 be correctly associated to the 485.

I later logged an SR while my EB2 dates were still current to check preference classification and also validated it with L2 officer that EB2 140 was associated to my 485 and got it confirmed.


Your situation is not exactly similar to the instance here. We are talking about people who applied for I-485 in 2012 or 2014 and has only EB2 petition.



Now for folks who have already filed EB2, there are 2 options. They can file a new perm, 140 in eb3 and once approved, send letter or email to uscis asking them to associate the new eb3 140 to their pending 485.


Time is the key. Labor ad's, perms, perm approval, 140 approval we are looking at 12-18 months average. The only good thing I see here it can be started any time. Ideal only for EB2 people beyond May 2010.



The second option is to amend the existing EB2 140 and request the preference classification of 140 be changed to eb3 instead of EB2. In this case no new perm needed. Any EB2 140 can be downgraded to eb3 as the qualifications for EB2 automatically satisfy eb3 as well. In fact this is specifically called out as one of the scenarios where a 140 application can be filed without the perm certification attached (as the original perm would have been sent with the original 140).
Once uscis adjudicates the 140 and approves it as eb3, you are all set.

After that just send an email or letter to uscis requesting them to adjudicate 485 based on the approved amended 140 under eb3.

This would be the option most of the people will be interested in. The only catch here in I140 without original PERM certificate cannot have a premium filing, but some law firm is claiming they can do it if the prior application is in the same service center. This again takes anywhere between 6-12 months. And in the mean time if your EB2 dates are current, all this new actions are deemed waste.



This is the downgrade process in a nutshell.

Some feel there is a slight risk with second option, some feel first option is riskier. In my view both carry some limited risk depending on the type of employment, salary range, employer etc (the usual stuff). Either way, the downgrade process is not the same as filing new 485.

As for interviews for downgrades of pending 485, no one can say for certain till someone tries it. Technically you are not filing a new 485 and so many expect that there will be no interviews needed.

Do we have anybody from the past who filed an EB3 petition and I485 in 2007 and who later upgraded to EB2/485 and GC? That would a good perspective to lot of us. We simply don't have enough info yet on this.

[eaglenow]

Do we have anybody from the past who filed an EB3 petition and I485 in 2007 and who later upgraded to EB2/485 and GC? That would a good perspective to lot of us. We simply don't have enough info yet on this.

Porting was essentially this scenario, moving from EB3 to EB2. Many had already filed EB3 and later ported to EB2. In all cases no one files a second 485, they just request to use a different 140. They get approved directly based on already filed 485 using the new 140. In fact, there is only one RD for 485. There is no second filing of 485, only inter file letter.

In case of amendment, once the EB2 140 is approved as eb3, request the already filed 485 be processed in eb3 using the approved amended 140.

[AceMan]

Porting was essentially this scenario, moving from EB3 to EB2. Many had already filed EB3 and later ported to EB2. In all cases no one files a second 485, they just request to use a different 140. They get approved directly based on already filed 485 using the new 140. In fact, there is only one RD for 485. There is no second filing of 485, only inter file letter.

In case of amendment, once the EB2 140 is approved as eb3, request the already filed 485 be processed in eb3 using the approved amended 140.

Thanks for the explanation. So if 485 is already filed we need only an inter file letter if the underlying EB3 140 is approved and the dates are current.

Can it be filed by the candidate directly or it has to be from the company/attorney?

A follow up on that, how primary and dependent separate filing would pan out? Like the question another user put forward.

He has an Oct 2009 PD on EB2, and already filed AOS 6 years back, now his spouse's PD of September 2009 on EB3 is accepted for filing.

[srimurthy]

The second option is to amend the existing EB2 140 and request the preference classification of 140 be changed to eb3 instead of EB2. In this case no new perm needed. Any EB2 140 can be downgraded to eb3 as the qualifications for EB2 automatically satisfy eb3 as well. In fact this is specifically called out as one of the scenarios where a 140 application can be filed without the perm certification attached (as the original perm would have been sent with the original 140).
Once uscis adjudicates the 140 and approves it as eb3, you are all set.

After that just send an email or letter to uscis requesting them to adjudicate 485 based on the approved amended 140 under eb3.

This is the downgrade process in a nutshell.

Some feel there is a slight risk with second option, some feel first option is riskier. In my view both carry some limited risk depending on the type of employment, salary range, employer etc (the usual stuff). Either way, the downgrade process is not the same as filing new 485.



From the second option where is the risk other then the time taken to get 140 in EB2 amendment to be approved for EB3?
Because usually the Job Title and Role / Responsibilities are similar, Salary Range in EB2 is higher than EB3 so that will meet the needs for EB3, and if it is the same employer who file EB2 140, then that should be the path for most of the EB2 people with PD > Apr 2010 and atleast going into 2011.

[Desi Dude]

Porting was essentially this scenario, moving from EB3 to EB2. Many had already filed EB3 and later ported to EB2. In all cases no one files a second 485, they just request to use a different 140. They get approved directly based on already filed 485 using the new 140. In fact, there is only one RD for 485. There is no second filing of 485, only inter file letter.

In case of amendment, once the EB2 140 is approved as eb3, request the already filed 485 be processed in eb3 using the approved amended 140.


That's exactly what I've been saying all this while. People have no idea about porting and interfiling and they are making stuff up. You DON'T need to file another I-485 or do anything for that matter if you have approved EB3 & EB2 I-140s. You just have to send an email asking USCIS to use the other I-140 and use that PD.

[lville]

That's exactly what I've been saying all this while. People have no idea about porting and interfiling and they are making stuff up. You DON'T need to file another I-485 or do anything for that matter if you have approved EB3 & EB2 I-140s. You just have to send an email asking USCIS to use the other I-140 and use that PD.

You are correct. But in my case (PD May 22, 2009 EB2-I) where I had my eb3 thru employer 1 and no longer work with, now I've moved to employer 2 with EB2. For me to downgrade back to EB3 I've to file new I-140 and request USCIS to use my perm from EB2. My lawyer says it depends on officer if he/she would accept my downgrade I-140 under premium processing. If they accept it under premium I could possibly be current in next 2 months :) in EB3. Let's see how this goes