EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Spectator]

Gurus

My i-140 was approved via consular processing route. My understanding is that priority date for me would be determined by chart b (Filing dates). Can you please comment if its not correct?
As it says in every VB:


This bulletin summarizes the availability of immigrant numbers during [whichever VB month it is] for: “Final Action Dates” and “Dates for Filing Applications,” indicating when immigrant visa applicants should be notified to assemble and submit required documentation to the National Visa Center.
and

B. DATES FOR FILING FAMILY-SPONSORED VISA APPLICATIONS

The chart below reflects dates for filing visa applications within a timeframe justifying immediate action in the application process. Applicants for immigrant visas who have a priority date earlier than the application date in the chart below may assemble and submit required documents to the Department of State’s National Visa Center, following receipt of notification from the National Visa Center containing detailed instructions.

[Spectator]

Spec

Do you think the filing dates(even if USCIS doesn't honor it) will give a clear picture of where EB2 and Eb3 INDIA will land by end of FY 2019?
Not necessarily.

I know it's not my most helpful reply, but only CO knows that and other considerations may be at play in FY2019.

Is CO going to take into account potential reverse porting or not? for instance.

[Spectator]

I was trying to get a handle on numbers of cases that may be at Field Offices.

The last reporting by USCIS was for the end of Q2 FY2018. This is fairly analogous to the April 2018 Inventory.

According to the USCIS report (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Resources/Reports%20and%20Studies/Immigration%20Forms%20Data/Employment-based/I485_performancedata_fy2018_qtr2.pdf) there were 115,084 Employment based I-485 at Service Centers and 47,591 cases at Field Offices. That's a total of 162,675 pending cases, a number also used in another Q2 report.

The USCIS Inventory showed 48,190 Employment Based cases. This infers that there are another 114,485 cases not shown in the USCIS Inventory i.e the USCIS Inventory was only showing about 30% of total cases USCIS admit are pending.

If you net off the EB2-I cases, which are probably fairly accurate, then the total drops to 26,492 shown in the Inventory out of 144,977 total cases pending (those other than EB2-I), or just over 18% of total cases USCIS admit are pending.

All in all it's a total CF.

[eb2visa]

New Inventory:

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_2018 .pdf

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Pending Inventory stopped being a useful tool for predictions long time back. I don't see any logic for 2009 numbers showing up in EB3I Inventory.

[GCkaLADDU]

Pending Inventory stopped being a useful tool for predictions long time back. I don't see any logic for 2009 numbers showing up in EB3I Inventory.

May be this explains. Looks like they are making the same errors again.

https://www.uscis.gov/greencard/questions-answers-pending-employment-based-form-i-485-inventory

Q: Why were there pending cases listed with priority dates after August 2007 when the Visa Bulletin priority dates was never beyond August 2007?

A: We have reviewed the source data for the inventory and have determined that a number of errors contributed to the appearance of cases with a 2008 or 2009 priority date in countries and preferences for which the priority date has not advanced beyond 2007 in the DOS Visa Bulletin. First, several of these cases had more than one approved I-140, and, rather than list the case by the earlier priority date, we erroneously listed the case by the later priority date. Several more cases were cross-chargeable to a non-retrogressed country but were listed under the retrogressed country. Finally, a handful of cases involved simple data-entry errors.

[siriyal75]

Interesting answer, but why this error/cross-charge is applicable only for EB3-I, why it didn't happen to EB2-I.

[GCkaLADDU]

Interesting answer, but why this error/cross-charge is applicable only for EB3-I, why it didn't happen to EB2-I.

Don't know. Maybe because of porting from EB3 to EB2?

[redsox2009]

If the pending inventory was calculated during July first week, then we can remove Dec/Jan/Feb and half of the march numbers from the inventory.

[altek001]

Interesting answer, but why this error/cross-charge is applicable only for EB3-I, why it didn't happen to EB2-I.

This could be due to primary applicants in EB2-I using cross chargeabilty of spouse from country of birth of ROW.

[srimurthy]

This could be due to primary applicants in EB2-I using cross chargeabilty of spouse from country of birth of ROW.

If you could use the cross chargeability then you would use it Day 1 itself and not wait for portability as most countries are current. So my understanding is these should not even come up.

[EB2-03252009]

If the pending inventory was calculated during July first week, then we can remove Dec/Jan/Feb and half of the march numbers from the inventory.

I dont think so, it must be end of July as the approvals for 2009 started in July. if you see trackitt approvals there are 44 approvals in July which is like 44*15=660.

[LASHAB]

The pending inventory in Jul 2018 report against the Aug 2017 report is far less in all categories. I would assume that this would mean faster advancement this FY.

[mrperfect]

Gurus... thanks all in this forum to share views info's providing strength that we are not alone in this deliberate immigration process to sabotage dreams of many hardworking intellectuals.. with the hope finding fairness where there seems nonein this process..

My question from the latest published inventory is that while PERM data that Spec had here for 2009 http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=1351&d=1531511889 shows ~1200 PERM approvals (EB2+EB3) for may 09 .. why is there >1400 pending 485 cases listed for the same month PD just on EB2 I List..

[Spectator]

Gurus... thanks all in this forum to share views info's providing strength that we are not alone in this deliberate immigration process to sabotage dreams of many hardworking intellectuals.. with the hope finding fairness where there seems nonein this process..

My question from the latest published inventory is that while PERM data that Spec had here for 2009 http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=1351&d=1531511889 shows ~1200 PERM approvals (EB2+EB3) for may 09 .. why is there >1400 pending 485 cases listed for the same month PD just on EB2 I List..

Simple answer is that the PERM data would only be relevant to the primary applicant, whereas the I-485 (USCIS Inventory) and CP data (DOS) would also include any dependents the primary applicant might have.

[excalibur123]

Simple answer is that the PERM data would only be relevant to the primary applicant, whereas the I-485 (USCIS Inventory) and CP data (DOS) would also include any dependents the primary applicant might have.

Hey Guys - New Joiner here. Have a great site here - which focuses on real things.

Just looking at the attachment here for PERM data - shows more than 16K for EBI 2009. Just seems a bit too high, when compared with the Pending Inventory (which shows about 11K for EB2 for both primary and dependents). Understood EB3 numbers are not known in PI, but I was under the impression the filings for EB3 were not too many. Any thoughts on what could I be missing here?

[Prabhas]

Q -

I dont want to bloat this good thread with my posts but would like to share a few good experiences that I believe will be useful for our readers. I dont know if I have the privileges to create new threads but here is what I need your help create new threads with.

1. Useful tips for Global Entry Program
2. DOS internal query on H1-B triggered with H4 stamping
3. OCI card renewal with new US passport info.

Especially Point#2 - given the times we are in, my experience will be a good one to share here.

V

[idliman]

I would also like to add that a thread on Transit Visa for LHR Transit (London) will be great. While I was applying I could not get any good info on that. This is applicable mostly for people using EAD+AP for reentry.

[qesehmk]

Guys anybody can create any thread. Just go to appropriate forum or sub-forum and you will see a button at the top. You don't see a button here because you are already in a thread.

A forum is like a windows folder whereas a thread is a file. You need to go the folder to create a file.

[excalibur123]

Simple answer is that the PERM data would only be relevant to the primary applicant, whereas the I-485 (USCIS Inventory) and CP data (DOS) would also include any dependents the primary applicant might have.

Not sure why my previous post on this isn't there, but anyways here again -

Looks like a great forum to share real and useful info.

About the link to PERM data, for 2009 the total approvals for India show about 16K. With dependents that would translate into a number ranging from 30K-35K. This would be significantly higher than 11K Pending Inventory seen in PIs for long time. Even if some numbers can be attributed to EB3 (say atmost 8K), that still doesn't add up. What am I missing here ?

[gs1968]

I would also like to add that a thread on Transit Visa for LHR Transit (London) will be great. While I was applying I could not get any good info on that. This is applicable mostly for people using EAD+AP for reentry.

As I was mentioning to Q the other day in a different thread we have even discussed Chapathi atta in this forum. This was well before you joined. Believe it or not the thread still appears to be there!

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1151-Best-atta-or-whole-wheat-flour-in-USA?highlight=atta

[AceMan]

Not sure why my previous post on this isn't there, but anyways here again -

Looks like a great forum to share real and useful info.

About the link to PERM data, for 2009 the total approvals for India show about 16K. With dependents that would translate into a number ranging from 30K-35K. This would be significantly higher than 11K Pending Inventory seen in PIs for long time. Even if some numbers can be attributed to EB3 (say atmost 8K), that still doesn't add up. What am I missing here ?

Hey, good to see you here. Now for 2009 PERM, lot of EB2 I before May 1st 2009 was greened back in 2014. The following is the calculation I did, I expect the total people waiting would be a little more than what we see in the actual EB2 queue now. If the EB3 I dates start again at 1st Jan 2009 and EB 2 I march 09, we can definitely say that the total numbers pending there before that would be less than 3000 for EB3 I.

[Tinks77]

Aceman,

Any idea what Oct visa bulletin priority date will be EB1-I. I am EB1B May 2014 , yet to file my I-485.

[Tinks77]

Hey, good to see you here. Now for 2009 PERM, lot of EB2 I before May 1st 2009 was greened back in 2014. The following is the calculation I did, I expect the total people waiting would be a little more than what we see in the actual EB2 queue now. If the EB3 I dates start again at 1st Jan 2009 and EB 2 I march 09, we can definitely say that the total numbers pending there before that would be less than 3000 for EB3 I.

Aceman,

What is your prediction for EB1 India for Oct visa bulletin? I understand it depends on the CO but just your inputs....I am EB1B may 2014 and respect ur predictions

[SonaMoni77]

Hey, good to see you here. Now for 2009 PERM, lot of EB2 I before May 1st 2009 was greened back in 2014. The following is the calculation I did, I expect the total people waiting would be a little more than what we see in the actual EB2 queue now. If the EB3 I dates start again at 1st Jan 2009 and EB 2 I march 09, we can definitely say that the total numbers pending there before that would be less than 3000 for EB3 I.

Aceman,

Any prediction on EB1 -India dates for Oct 2018 visa bulletin?

[excalibur123]

Hey, good to see you here. Now for 2009 PERM, lot of EB2 I before May 1st 2009 was greened back in 2014. The following is the calculation I did, I expect the total people waiting would be a little more than what we see in the actual EB2 queue now. If the EB3 I dates start again at 1st Jan 2009 and EB 2 I march 09, we can definitely say that the total numbers pending there before that would be less than 3000 for EB3 I.

Thanks, good to you see you too. Though I hope one day we are not on these forums.

As for the data, are you saying we are pending about 11K+3K for 2009 or 11K+6K (including dependents) ?

I just feel these PERM numbers seem a bit too high but then my analysis has been limited.

If these numbers have been verified for previous years - like matching PERM numbers with actual GC issued, then it would be more comfort.

[canada]

Hey, good to see you here. Now for 2009 PERM, lot of EB2 I before May 1st 2009 was greened back in 2014. The following is the calculation I did, I expect the total people waiting would be a little more than what we see in the actual EB2 queue now. If the EB3 I dates start again at 1st Jan 2009 and EB 2 I march 09, we can definitely say that the total numbers pending there before that would be less than 3000 for EB3 I.

Aceman, in simple language can you explain what do you intend to say? Do I have any hope of getting my date current- August 2009 this FY 2009

Thanks

[07jul2011]

My current H1 approved petition is valid till 2019 November and planning to go for stamping later this year. However, my company is changing its name from A to B but there are no structural changes in the company & no role/location changes. Do I need to file H1 amendment? Any risk in going for stamping with older company name in I-797?

[AceMan]

Thanks, good to you see you too. Though I hope one day we are not on these forums.

As for the data, are you saying we are pending about 11K+3K for 2009 or 11K+6K (including dependents) ?

I just feel these PERM numbers seem a bit too high but then my analysis has been limited.

If these numbers have been verified for previous years - like matching PERM numbers with actual GC issued, then it would be more comfort.


True, but the reality is the forums provide us wealth of information.


What I was saying is as per the latest demand data the total numbers waiting for GC in EB2 I since mid march 2009- Dec 2009 is 10,000. There has been lot of EB2 I people before May 2009, greened back in 2014.

PERM Stats for 01/01/2009 to 12/31/2010 shows about 17000 approved perms. Since it is close to 10 year old, it would be only worth about 50-60% as probably, people would have moved on from this. So multiply 8500 * 1.5 (dependents) would indicate we have probably about 21,250 total numbers.
This list would include the above 10,000 who has already done AOS.

Eb2 -I August 17, 19104, July 18 - 15826. We might end up getting around 4000 visas for EB2 I in FY 18.
Eb3 -I August 17, 8837, July 18 - 473. We might end up getting around 10000 visas for EB3 I in FY 18.

A combined number of 14,0000 Visas for FY 2018, if the situation continues in 2019, EB2-I might appear ending at September 2009; In reality lot of EB2 filers are porters who may be still having this prior petition active and they can use that for GC.

EB3 I will definitely catch up EB2I in FY 19. But I don't think it will break away.

[rocketfast]

PERM Stats for 01/01/2009 to 12/31/2010 shows about 17000 approved perms.

According to Spec's data (unless I misunderstand it): His data gives PERMs applied (For e.g., PERM applied in 2010 may have been approved in 2011, but priority date is still 2010),

EB3+Eb2 PERM

India --- Certified
CY2007 --- 23,098
CY2008 --- 23,746
CY2009 --- 16,672
CY2010 --- 22,361

I don't understand the wishful thinking that people have abandoned their PERMs from 2009 and 2010. The mass layoffs happened in 2009 and we still are taking forever to clear 2009.

[qesehmk]

I don't understand the wishful thinking that people have abandoned their PERMs from 2009 and 2010. The mass layoffs happened in 2009 and we still are taking forever to clear 2009.
The reason is quite simple. There is virtually no spillover available for last 5-6 years. 2007-2008-2009 were years where the annual EB2I demand was 2-3K per month. That did not include any EB3-I upgrades to EB2-I. So at 3K per year, do the math.

I bet at least 40% people from 2009 have given up on GC and went back.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I just got off a plane and while in the plane, I was viewing FixNews and it said the House passed an 'Immigration Bill'. Did they pass H.R 392? I am not able to find anything to substantiate that news.

[qesehmk]

I just got off a plane and while in the plane, I was viewing FixNews and it said the House passed an 'Immigration Bill'. Did they pass H.R 392? I am not able to find anything to substantiate that news.
It is a bill called "Crime of Violence" which aims to allow removal of non-citizens (not just illegal or undocumented ones) if they are convicted of violent crimes. It is noteworthy that just this April the Supreme court opined that the "Crime of Violence" language in current INA is vague and unconstitutional. So perhaps this bill is an attempt to create a bullet-proof way to deport non-citizens when they commit "Crimes of Violence".

[rocketfast]

I bet at least 40% people from 2009 have given up on GC and went back.

Guruji,
Can you provide some more color to your statement? Are you saying that out of 10,880 pending 485 in 2009 (based on July 2018 pending inventory), around 4000 of them are not going to respond to their RFE?

The pending inventory for 2008 in EB2I only shows 236 remaining I-485s. Is it because USCIS removed I-485s that did not respond to an RFE? If 40% of people in 2009 have abandoned their PERM, would it not be fair to say that a large number of people have abandoned their PERM in 2008 too?

Since a lot of 2009 applicants have EAD, with so many Desi bodyshops in USA, can't they revive application once the date becomes current.

[AceMan]

Guruji,
Can you provide some more color to your statement? Are you saying that out of 10,880 pending 485 in 2009 (based on July 2018 pending inventory), around 4000 of them are not going to respond to their RFE?

The pending inventory for 2008 in EB2I only shows 236 remaining I-485s. Is it because USCIS removed I-485s that did not respond to an RFE? If 40% of people in 2009 have abandoned their PERM, would it not be fair to say that a large number of people have abandoned their PERM in 2008 too?

Since a lot of 2009 applicants have EAD, with so many Desi bodyshops in USA, can't they revive application once the date becomes current.

10880 is the total number who already got their EAD. They will not move out the queue. I was talking about the people from the perm numbers. I believe master also thinks the same way.

2008 Eb2 I is done. Incidentally that was the last year by which the elevated H1’s (195,000) in 2003 applied. So as the old saying goes, past performance of 2008 is not an indicator for 2009 and 2010 when US was in recession.

[GCkaLADDU]

True, but the reality is the forums provide us wealth of information.


What I was saying is as per the latest demand data the total numbers waiting for GC in EB2 I since mid march 2009- Dec 2009 is 10,000. There has been lot of EB2 I people before May 2009, greened back in 2014.

PERM Stats for 01/01/2009 to 12/31/2010 shows about 17000 approved perms. Since it is close to 10 year old, it would be only worth about 50-60% as probably, people would have moved on from this. So multiply 8500 * 1.5 (dependents) would indicate we have probably about 21,250 total numbers.
This list would include the above 10,000 who has already done AOS.

Eb2 -I August 17, 19104, July 18 - 15826. We might end up getting around 4000 visas for EB2 I in FY 18.
Eb3 -I August 17, 8837, July 18 - 473. We might end up getting around 10000 visas for EB3 I in FY 18.

A combined number of 14,0000 Visas for FY 2018, if the situation continues in 2019, EB2-I might appear ending at September 2009; In reality lot of EB2 filers are porters who may be still having this prior petition active and they can use that for GC.

EB3 I will definitely catch up EB2I in FY 19. But I don't think it will break away.


Immigration Law folks have categorically said that EB-485 inventory data is correct and there are no glitches. Don't know what's driving them towards this conclusion. May be they are just talking about EB2-I being correct looking at an update dated 09/04 (which we know is close to correct)

http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

Would love to hear expert opinions on this one. Very interesting times indeed!

[SonaMoni77]

Immigration Law folks have categorically said that EB-485 inventory data is correct and there are no glitches. Don't know what's driving them towards this conclusion. May be they are just talking about EB2-I being correct looking at an update dated 09/04 (which we know is close to correct)

http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html

Would love to hear expert opinions on this one. Very interesting times indeed!

'Oh uncle' is total crap. My perspective...ignore him....drawing mass on his website...total time pass

[qesehmk]

Immigration Law folks have categorically said that EB-485 inventory data is correct and there are no glitches.

I would like to say this with utmost respect for that and all other sites that their "opinion" is absolutely wrong.

There are way too many instances when USCIS/DoS have accepted and corrected errors in published data.

Peace and Cheers.

[GCkaLADDU]

I would like to say this with utmost respect for that and all other sites that their "opinion" is absolutely wrong.

There are way too many instances when USCIS/DoS have accepted and corrected errors in published data.

Peace and Cheers.

Only thing which can potentially explain the inventory numbers is that:

- All I-485 cases with interview requirement (filed post Oct 2017) are being handled at field offices (don't think service centers conduct interview).
- Field office figures are not being included in the pending 485 inventory though description says otherwise. May be few but not all.

There's a steady decline in pending numbers over last 3-4 inventories published:

Oct 2017:

Total EB2I pending - 19466
Total EB3I pending - 6258

Jan 2018:

Total EB2I pending - 18488
Total EB3I pending - 4269

Apr 2018

Total EB2I pending - 17658
Total EB3I pending - 2917

July 2018

Total EB2I pending - 15826
Total EB3I pending - 473

This shows that USCIS has processed atleast 3640 EB2I cases and atleast 5785 EB3I since Oct 2017. No information on the cases processed at Field Offices within this time range though.

There are still pending 485 applications out there which unfortunately we don't see reliably in pending 485 reports.

[march1612]

Only thing which can potentially explain the inventory numbers is that:

- All I-485 cases with interview requirement (filed post March 2017) are being handled at field offices (don't think service centers conduct interview).
- Field office figures are not being included in the pending 485 inventory though description says otherwise. May be few but not all.

There's a steady decline in pending numbers over last 3-4 inventories published:

Oct 2017:

Total EB2I pending - 19466
Total EB3I pending - 6258

Jan 2018:

Total EB2I pending - 18488
Total EB3I pending - 4269

Apr 2018

Total EB2I pending - 17658
Total EB3I pending - 2917

July 2018

Total EB2I pending - 15826
Total EB3I pending - 473

This shows that USCIS has processed atleast 3640 EB2I cases and atleast 5785 EB3I since Oct 2017. No information on the cases processed at Field Offices within this time range though.

Is there a way to calculate spill over EB2-I got for FY2018 with these numbers?

[07jul2011]

My current H1 approved petition is valid till 2019 November and planning to go for stamping later this year. However, my company is changing its name from A to B but there are no structural changes in the company & no role/location changes. Do I need to file H1 amendment? Any risk in going for stamping with older company name in I-797?

Gurus...please advise.

[AceMan]

Is there a way to calculate spill over EB2-I got for FY2018 with these numbers?


Subtract it with 2804 will give you the SO till date.

[srimurthy]

Gurus...please advise.
Per my understanding this should not be an issue. There are usually Merger Documents, or Successor in Interest or some other document in your case that would support the case that the new company is just a name change and is the same as the old one that it would have submitted to the Secretary of State for Registration of companies.

I have not gone for stamping but got H1 extensions while my original company went through Merger first and then was taken over too.
The company lawyer / HR should be able provide that required documentation proof

[kash80]

I went through a similar situation where my company got acquired. I went for stamping with the original I797, and the attorney provided documents about the acquisition. Not much questions were asked and visa was approved.

[altek001]

Pending inventory for Overall EB1 in October' 2017- 54,217
Pending inventory for overall EB1 in July' 2018- 7,557.

This means USCIS processed 54217-75557 = 46,660 visas within the same FY.

How can they issue additional 6,660 visas in EB1 when the cap is set at 40,000?

[AceMan]

Pending inventory for Overall EB1 in October' 2017- 54,217
Pending inventory for overall EB1 in July' 2018- 7,557.

This means USCIS processed 54217-75557 = 46,660 visas within the same FY.

How can they issue additional 6,660 visas in EB1 when the cap is set at 40,000?


The July 18 demand data does not have information from field offices since March 2017. You have to wait till you see the annual statistics for the individual usage. In any case EB1 gets the unused SO from EB3/4/5 others.

[EB2-03252009]

VB out... EB2-I 03/26/2009 :)

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-october-2018.html

[tendlya]

VB out... EB2-I 03/26/2009 :)

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-october-2018.html

Congrats you are current!

[newyorker123]

EB1 India final date : June 1st 2016
I guess this is the beginning of EB1 queue also getting slowed down
Can anybody state the rough estimated movements of EB2/EB3 for next 2 years ? Will any one of them reach 2011/2012 ?

[redsox2009]

Interesting pattern with filing dates. All categories and all countries filing dates retrogressed, except EB2 China and EB3 India. EB2 China filing dates advanced by 45 days, where are EB3 India filing dates advance by 5 months and crossed EB2I filing dates.

Hope USCIS honors Filing dates for Oct 2018.

[newyorker123]

USCIS has never honored filing dates since more than a year I believe!

[LeoAugust]

Can we expect still more porting from EB3? Or EB3 is going to move faster now on...

[idliman]

EB1 India final date : June 1st 2016
I guess this is the beginning of EB1 queue also getting slowed down
Can anybody state the rough estimated movements of EB2/EB3 for next 2 years ? Will any one of them reach 2011/2012 ? I can only say 6 months movement per year. So you are looking at May 2010 getting current in 2 years. This is assuming that the conditions are more or less the same. I sincerely hope that conditions improve and that we see good movement in the next two years.

[jimmys]

I have a July 2009 PD and have both EB-3 and EB-2 I-140s approved. Provided if USCIS allows EB-3 filing date, I will file I-485 and if EB-2 moves ahead of EB-3 I plan to link my EB-2 I-140 to the same. Hopefully I get greened sooner one or the other way.

[LASHAB]

My PD is Jul 2009. In case USCIS honors the application filing date can I downgrade to EB3 and file 140 and 485 concurrently? Is it advisable if its possible?

[jimmys]

USCIS has never honored filing dates since more than a year I believe!

True. Till last year, they started the FY with several thousands of inventory, at least, for EB3-I. FY 18 started EB3-I with about 6.2K inventory. Dates moved since last year and inventory hasn't shown a lot of new applications for EB-3 I category. People who got chances to port to EB-2 I would have already ported (2007-2008). That was the very reason EB2-I retrogressed from 2009 to 2008 for the last few years. If you look at the July inventory,there were only 473 cases left for EB-3 I. And, July VB had EB-3 FAD set to Nov 08.

Without moving EB3 I filing dates aggressively they may not be able to generate a decent demand for FY 19. The probability is more for USCIS to accept the filing date for EB3-I this time around.

[AceMan]

True. Till last year, they started the FY with several thousands of inventory, at least, for EB3-I. FY 18 started EB3-I with about 6.2K inventory. Dates moved since last year and inventory hasn't shown a lot of new applications for EB-3 I category. People who got chances to port to EB-2 I would have already ported (2007-2008). That was the very reason EB2-I retrogressed from 2009 to 2008 for the last few years. If you look at the July inventory,there were only 473 cases left for EB-3 I. And, July VB had EB-3 FAD set to Nov 08.

Without moving EB3 I filing dates aggressively they may not be able to generate a decent demand for FY 19. The probability is more for USCIS to accept the filing date for EB3-I this time around.

This year I would estimate Eb3 I got around 10,000 compared to 6600 from 2017. We have to wait for Annual statistics 2018 for the actual numbers. EB3 -I moved from March 2005 to Jan 2009 in about 18 months.

[texas_]

This year I would estimate Eb3 I got around 10,000 compared to 6600 from 2017. We have to wait for Annual statistics 2018 for the actual numbers. EB3 -I moved from March 2005 to Jan 2009 in about 18 months.

To receive 10000 EB3 In should atleast move to January 1 2011. Hope this fulfills your estimates

[AceMan]

To receive 10000 EB3 In should atleast move to January 1 2011. Hope this fulfills your estimates

I meant 10000 would be number Eb3 I got for Fy 2018

[Spectator]

This year I would estimate Eb3 I got around 10,000 compared to 6600 from 2017. We have to wait for Annual statistics 2018 for the actual numbers. EB3 -I moved from March 2005 to Jan 2009 in about 18 months.
I'm not not sure I would agree with that assessment.

I think EB3-I has received a similar amount in FY2018 compared to FY2017, or even a slightly lower number.

There was spike in EB3-I approvals in April 2018, when the FAD moved from 01JAN07 to 01FEB08. That's consistent with clearing out the existing cases up to July 2007 PD. There were 96 Trackitt approvals Oct-Mar, then 64 approvals in April and 15 in May. Since then, just 14. The total currently stands at 189, compared to 215 for all of FY2017.

After April/beginning of May then, pretty much no approvals. That wouldn't be terribly surprising. Even though CO moved the EB3-I dates fairly early in the FY, the USCIS interview requirement has made processing and adjudicating new I-485 cases glacially slow. There simply hasn't been enough time to adjudicate post July 2007 PD cases that may have been submitted. Those cases will not be with the Service Centers, so we have zero visibility into the number of those cases.

I accept the above conclusions may be an over reliance on Trackitt data. It may be that new EB3-I filers are simply no longer entering their cases on Trackitt or updating them. However, even that factor wouldn't, I believe, bridge the difference in numbers.

[smuggymba]

I'm not not sure I would agree with that assessment.

I think EB3-I has received a similar amount in FY2018 compared to FY2017, or even a slightly lower number.

There was spike in EB3-I approvals in April 2018, when the FAD moved from 01JAN07 to 01FEB08. That's consistent with clearing out the existing cases up to July 2007 PD. There were 96 Trackitt approvals Oct-Mar, then 64 approvals in April and 15 in May. Since then, just 14. The total currently stands at 189, compared to 215 for all of FY2017.

After April/beginning of May then, pretty much no approvals. That wouldn't be terribly surprising. Even though CO moved the EB3-I dates fairly early in the FY, the USCIS interview requirement has made processing and adjudicating new I-485 cases glacially slow. There simply hasn't been enough time to adjudicate post July 2007 PD cases that may have been submitted. Those cases will not be with the Service Centers, so we have zero visibility into the number of those cases.

I accept the above conclusions may be an over reliance on Trackitt data. It may be that new EB3-I filers are simply no longer entering their cases on Trackitt or updating them. However, even that factor wouldn't, I believe, bridge the difference in numbers.


My PD is March 2010 EB2; just got my EAD renewed till Aug 2020. How many more EAD renewals will I need before getting GC? :eek:

[AceMan]

I'm not not sure I would agree with that assessment.

I think EB3-I has received a similar amount in FY2018 compared to FY2017, or even a slightly lower number.

There was spike in EB3-I approvals in April 2018, when the FAD moved from 01JAN07 to 01FEB08. That's consistent with clearing out the existing cases up to July 2007 PD. There were 96 Trackitt approvals Oct-Mar, then 64 approvals in April and 15 in May. Since then, just 14. The total currently stands at 189, compared to 215 for all of FY2017.

After April/beginning of May then, pretty much no approvals. That wouldn't be terribly surprising. Even though CO moved the EB3-I dates fairly early in the FY, the USCIS interview requirement has made processing and adjudicating new I-485 cases glacially slow. There simply hasn't been enough time to adjudicate post July 2007 PD cases that may have been submitted. Those cases will not be with the Service Centers, so we have zero visibility into the number of those cases.

I accept the above conclusions may be an over reliance on Trackitt data. It may be that new EB3-I filers are simply no longer entering their cases on Trackitt or updating them. However, even that factor wouldn't, I believe, bridge the difference in numbers.

With the hard numbers we have 6000 till July 18. I was expecting July and August clear another 4000. But if we got only under 600 in the last quarter, then we might end up with disappointing performance for 2018 as well. If the dates don’t move for November bulletin then you will be right.

[EB2-03252009]

Hi,

I am traveling this weekend for 2 weeks out of country, I will be back on 30th. My date will be current next month. Will that be a problem as my i-94 will be updated and they will not have the latest travel record? Just making sure that I have everything before I travel. replies would be appreciated.

[jimmys]

I'm not not sure I would agree with that assessment.

There simply hasn't been enough time to adjudicate post July 2007 PD cases that may have been submitted. Those cases will not be with the Service Centers, so we have zero visibility into the number of those cases.

I accept the above conclusions may be an over reliance on Trackitt data. It may be that new EB3-I filers are simply no longer entering their cases on Trackitt or updating them. However, even that factor wouldn't, I believe, bridge the difference in numbers.

May 2018 EB-3 I FAD was Sep 1,08 and you think service centers have no visibility of those numbers in Sep 1st week of 2018. I agree there isn't enough time to approve but won't they show up in the inventory few months down the line?

[Spectator]

May 2018 EB-3 I FAD was Sep 1,08 and you think service centers have no visibility of those numbers in Sep 1st week of 2018. I agree there isn't enough time to approve but won't they show up in the inventory few months down the line?
The lockbox's are routing new cases to NBC for distribution to Field Offices it appears.

The USCIS Inventory report is not going to show those cases at all. They'll be approved at the FO if the case is current at time of interview.

The only way they might appear in the Inventory, is if there was retrogression at the time of interview. The FO could not approve the case and has to return the case to TSC, who will then make the final adjudication when the PD is current again. Even then, it's a timing issue, since most would be approved between inventory publications.

[jimmys]

The lockbox's are routing new cases to NBC for distribution to Field Offices it appears.

The USCIS Inventory report is not going to show those cases at all. They'll be approved at the FO if the case is current at time of interview.

The only way they might appear in the Inventory, is if there was retrogression at the time of interview. The FO could not approve the case and has to return the case to TSC, who will then make the final adjudication when the PD is current again. Even then, it's a timing issue, since most would be approved between inventory publications.

How do DOS/USCIS manage Final Action Dates for EB-3 I if they don't have a hold of pending inventory for new filings in NBC and/or FO? Am I missing something here?

[tenyearsgone]

My PD is March 2010 EB2; just got my EAD renewed till Aug 2020. How many more EAD renewals will I need before getting GC? :eek:

My PD is October 2009 and I got a 2 year renewal this week. So.. who knows? I wouldn't be surprised to have to renew atleast once more.

[LeoAugust]

Just out of curiosity, If EB2- PD Mar 2010 is on EAD, then why they are not moving the date of filling for Eb2-I to 2010 ? If there are porters in EB2 for 2009, then how many are left so that it can move to 2010? Appreciate any reply.

[march1612]

I recently renewed my EAD/AP and got approved but the validity is only for 1 year. My PD is EB2-I March 2010. I have been getting 2 years validity ever since I applied my 485.

Any thoughts on why I have been granted only 1 year?

[GCkaLADDU]

I recently renewed my EAD/AP and got approved but the validity is only for 1 year. My PD is EB2-I March 2010. I have been getting 2 years validity ever since I applied my 485.

Any thoughts on why I have been granted only 1 year?

Because the officer processing your case was having a bad day. He got yelled at by his wife for not doing the dishes :p

[march1612]

Because the officer processing your case was having a bad day. He got yelled at by his wife for not doing the dishes :p

Lol!!, I hope he took his anger on me and spared my fellow applicants :)

[rocketfast]

Just out of curiosity, If EB2- PD Mar 2010 is on EAD, then why they are not moving the date of filling for Eb2-I to 2010 ? If there are porters in EB2 for 2009, then how many are left so that it can move to 2010? Appreciate any reply.

1. Priority date is only advanced when there are green cards available to be given.
2. Sometimes, they advance priority dates to generate demand in advance so as not to waste green cards at the end of the fiscal year.

Since both the cases are not true, they can't legally advance the date. Obama admin tried to use 2 as a reason to advance EB2-I dates few years ago, but USCIS refused to do so as it would be illegal and obama admin had to backdown.

[Spectator]

Just out of curiosity, If EB2- PD Mar 2010 is on EAD, then why they are not moving the date of filling for Eb2-I to 2010 ? If there are porters in EB2 for 2009, then how many are left so that it can move to 2010? Appreciate any reply.
Looking at the USCIS Inventory, there are already 4-5 FY approval's worth of EB2-I cases pending. Under those circumstances, given what the job is, why would CO advance the Filing Date to 2010 for EB2-I?

On the other hand, CO has no visibility of EB3-I demand, similar to the EB2-I situation in FY2012.

CO has complained for years that he has no visibility into upcoming demand from USCIS.

I'd love CO to just say to USCIS (with apologies to Independence Day) UP YOURS!! and move the FAD for EB3-I into 2011/12 for a month or two, then retrogress before any cases can be approved, since USCIS won't use the mechanism of Filing Dates that were introduced.

Only this sort of action has any hope of forcing USCIS to become more transparent. We only have the Inventory because Congress forced it on USCIS as a result of the July 2007 debacle. Now USCIS have made even that useless.

DOS are able to publish, within a month, a breakdown of monthly CP approvals by Country and by Category, as well as a breakdown by Consular Office and Category - all this from posts spread out across the globe. These reports cover not just EB, but all possible methods that lead to an immigrant visa being issued.

Meanwhile, USCIS can't even count EB cases from less locations in the USA on a quarterly basis.

[AceMan]

Looking at the USCIS Inventory, there are already 4-5 FY approval's worth of EB2-I cases pending. Under those circumstances, given what the job is, why would CO advance the Filing Date to 2010 for EB2-I?

On the other hand, CO has no visibility of EB3-I demand, similar to the EB2-I situation in FY2012.

CO has complained for years that he has no visibility into upcoming demand from USCIS.

I'd love CO to just say to USCIS (with apologies to Independence Day) UP YOURS!! and move the FAD for EB3-I into 2011/12 for a month or two, then retrogress before any cases can be approved, since USCIS won't use the mechanism of Filing Dates that were introduced.

Only this sort of action has any hope of forcing USCIS to become more transparent. We only have the Inventory because Congress forced it on USCIS as a result of the July 2007 debacle. Now USCIS have made even that useless.

DOS are able to publish, within a month, a breakdown of monthly CP approvals by Country and by Category, as well as a breakdown by Consular Office and Category - all this from posts spread out across the globe. These reports cover not just EB, but all possible methods that lead to an immigrant visa being issued.

Meanwhile, USCIS can't even count EB cases from less locations in the USA on a quarterly basis.

That would be "fun"tastic. However if we should remember OCtober bullet 2015.

[Spectator]

That would be "fun"tastic. However if we should remember OCtober bullet 2015.
That's why it has to be the FAD - USCIS have no say in that and CO could correctly argue that he's had to do it because he's seeing no demand from previous movements.

Sure, it would piss off USCIS big time and they'd go screaming to their like minded GOP supporters in Congress, or even the turd in chief. But hey, that would be fun. I suspect Pompeo wouldn't allow it, truth be told.

One can dream.

[qesehmk]

Meanwhile, USCIS can't even count EB cases from less locations in the USA on a quarterly basis.
:rolleyes:

Well they are busy stealing FEMA money so that they can run those detention camps.

Besides their turd in chief has asked them to only count people from Norway.

[smuggymba]

I recently renewed my EAD/AP and got approved but the validity is only for 1 year. My PD is EB2-I March 2010. I have been getting 2 years validity ever since I applied my 485.

Any thoughts on why I have been granted only 1 year?

No specific reason. Sometime uscis does that just for fun and to harass. You were just unlucky this time.

Last time my wife got 1 year AP; this year back to 2 yr combo. So, just a matter of luck and how pissed off the person approving file is.

[jimmys]

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-october-2018

EB3-I dates are honored by USCIS.

[newyorker123]

Question for the Gurus:
Final/Filing dates for India EB1 are in 2016/2017 now.
Any chance or scenario in coming 1-2 years when they might go back to Jan 2012 ?
And if so, when could that happen ?

[siriyal75]

You are still lucky with EAD in Hand for many years.
My PD is June 2010, no EAD, still on H1B, with lot of uncertainties at Job and H1b extn/travel.

[Spectator]

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-october-2018

EB3-I dates are honored by USCIS.
Ye Gods!!!

It's a miracle!!!

This is only the 6th time in 37 months that Filing Dates for EB have been accepted by USCIS.

[suninphx]

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-october-2018

EB3-I dates are honored by USCIS.

Great news!

[GCkaLADDU]

Ye Gods!!!

It's a miracle!!!

This is only the 6th time in 37 months that Filing Dates for EB have been accepted by USCIS.

Oh Yeah! 10 months jump for EB3-I (Jan to Oct) is phenomenal!

[AceMan]

For a change this one dream looks kind of reality for EB3. Lets hope they don't do an U-turn like September 2015.

[jimmys]

For a change this one dream looks kind of reality for EB3. Lets hope they don't do an U-turn like September 2015.

I don't see any iota of evidence why USCIS should do that. They need to generate demand for EB-3 India.

[texas_]

Oh Yeah! 10 months jump for EB3-I (Jan to Oct) is phenomenal!


Looks no inventory in EB3 caused this. Appears it will be crossing end of 2010 by end of FY 19 or at-least in 2020.

[AceMan]

I don't see any iota of evidence why USCIS should do that. They need to generate demand for EB-3 India.

It has been so long since we see a decent piece of information from USCIS. So please forgive me if I appear skeptical. Its just the mindset !!!

[march1612]

How will final action dates of EB2-India and EB3-India get impacted for FY 2019 with USCIS honoring the filing dates?

[AceMan]

NOTE from the visa bulletin: Numbers are authorized for issuance only for applicants whose priority date is earlier than the final action date listed.

[rocketfast]

The final action date for EB3-I is Jan 2009. Since only a maximum of 2800/4 = 700 green cards can be given in a quarter, would it fair to say that the materialized demand for EB3-I before Jan 1 2009 is around 700 so far?

[EB3Iwaiting]

NOTE from the visa bulletin: Numbers are authorized for issuance only for applicants whose priority date is earlier than the final action date listed.

That was always the case, nothing new here.

[Raj0687]

Looks fishy to me, where is the final action date then? or do they mean filing date as final action date?

Anyway people!!! be careful with stupid USCIS, I am a victim of Oct 2015.

[Ind2009]

Breaking news

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018.

https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

[redsox2009]

Based on Oct Bulletin, I think DOS and USCIS wanted to run a tight ship. So they might be moving filing dates slowly. Until the inventory is build up. Then ignore the filing dates.

[qesehmk]

On another note - swordfish also had commented that this site takes a lot of time for some (NEW users') posts to appear.

This is true for NEW users whose first few posts are manually moderated. We do not have enough moderators anymore as most of the old guard is now greened.

If some of you would like to moderate, let me know. This way we can speed up moderation for new users.

[swordfish380]

On another note - swordfish also had commented that this site takes a lot of time for some (NEW users') posts to appear.

This is true for NEW users whose first few posts are manually moderated. We do not have enough moderators anymore as most of the old guard is now greened.

If some of you would like to moderate, let me know. This way we can speed up moderation for new users.


Thank you for the insight. I had noticed it last time but when my post appeared right away i thought it may have been a glicth last time so i re edited my post.

[Spectator]

There's such a dearth of information at the moment and some of what is available is suspect.

I thought I'd look again at the various USCIS reports to see if more information could be extracted.

The assumption is that the USCIS quarterly reports correctly report the number of pending I-485. I've used these ones (https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-form-i-485-application-adjustment-status), since they separate out Service Center (SC) and Field Office (FO) data. Time wise, they are very close to the Inventory Report dates.

Despite having a line for National Benefits Center (NBC), no figures are given.

We then have the USCIS Inventory, which purports to show cases at the Service Centers, although it clearly does not show cases at NBC.

With some simple addition and subtraction, it's possible to identify the number of missing cases and hypothesize that these are at the NBC awaiting distribution to the FO.

Diff. refers to the difference between total number of pending cases reported by USCIS to the number reported in the Inventory Report. We could say that this number equals those at either the FO or NBC.

FO/NBC gives the % of total pending cases that are at either FO or NBC. It's an overall number - it's likely lower for India due to the number of pending cases submitted before March 2017 and correspondingly higher for other countries.

------------- From USCIS _485 Report
------------ SC ------ FO ------ Total -- Inventory ----- Diff. ---- NBC?? -- FO/NBC
Aug-17 -- 144,272 --- 4,275 -- 148,547 ---- 144,223 ---- (4,324) ------ 49 ---- 2.9%
Oct-17 -- 139,768 --- 9,614 -- 149,382 ---- 133,502 --- (15,880) --- 6,266 --- 10.6%
Jan-18 -- 114,734 -- 27,843 -- 142,577 ---- 103,675 --- (38,902) -- 11,059 --- 27.3%
Apr-18 -- 115,084 -- 47,591 -- 162,675 ----- 48,190 -- (114,485) -- 66,894 --- 70.4%

Comparable figures are not available for the July Inventory because USCIS has not published Q3 figures yet.

It may be rubbish. I've tried to lay out the logic behind the calculations, so decide for yourself whether it makes sense or not.

[gcvijay]

Hi Spec

How did the July 2018 inventory numbers show up beyond Jan 2009 when the priority dates didn't move beyond Jan 2009? Also, if those numbers are to be believed then with downgrading don't you think that EB3 INDIA should even move beyond Oct 2009?

[Spectator]

I've created a thread for the discussion of EB2 to EB3 reverse porting (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2722-Reverse-Porting-EB2-gt-EB3-Discussion).

Please post in this thread, rather than the Calculations and Predictions thread, since I think this will become quite sizable in its own right.

I suggest someone also creates a new thread to discuss the actual experiences and timelines of the process at the appropriate time.

[AceMan]

The only clear number we have is EB2 I has about 14000 numbers already with AOS and just waiting for GC. This number is gold for now. In a situation where are the other parameters are static, we can safely say Eb2-I till May 2010 would take 3 years (19,20,21) to clear this.

Now for the hard part for EB3. Last year we got 6600 for EB3-I and for FY 18 also we might be getting a similar number. EB3-I primaries with approved 140's from 2007 to 2018 beginning is 55,000. Ignore 30% duplicates/ported/spouse primary/greened in 2018 f this number should be around under 37,000. Add one dependent average for calculation would give us a rough total demand of 75,000 (just a ball park from calculations) till 2018. This averages to a demand of 7500 per year.

However 2009 and 2010 US recession would have resulted in less filing in any case. Now with no premiums for I140, I would put my neck out and say, that EB3 I has the potential to clear both 2009 and 2010 in FY 2019. I am also including the porters from 2009 and 2010 in this list who did not do the AOS.

So by FY 19 end, EB2-I might have a September 2009 date, EB3 -I with May 2010 date. A conservative take.

[canada]

The only clear number we have is EB2 I has about 14000 numbers already with AOS and just waiting for GC. This number is gold for now. In a situation where are the other parameters are static, we can safely say Eb2-I till May 2010 would take 3 years (19,20,21) to clear this.

Now for the hard part for EB3. Last year we got 6600 for EB3-I and for FY 18 also we might be getting a similar number. EB3-I primaries with approved 140's from 2007 to 2018 beginning is 55,000. Ignore 30% duplicates/ported/spouse primary/greened in 2018 f this number should be around under 37,000. Add one dependent average for calculation would give us a rough total demand of 75,000 (just a ball park from calculations) till 2018. This averages to a demand of 7500 per year.

However 2009 and 2010 US recession would have resulted in less filing in any case. Now with no premiums for I140, I would put my neck out and say, that EB3 I has the potential to clear both 2009 and 2010 in FY 2019. I am also including the porters from 2009 and 2010 in this list who did not do the AOS.

So by FY 19 end, EB2-I might have a September 2009 date, EB3 -I with May 2010 date. A conservative take.


So my priority date is EB2-I -August 28, 2009. I should be expecting the date to be current by the end of FY 2019. I missed the opportunity in 2012. So still on H1b

thanks Aceman

[hope21]

So by FY 19 end, EB2-I might have a September 2009 date, EB3 -I with May 2010 date. A conservative take.
From the limited information provided to us by USCIS/DOS, that sounds about right, good guestimate - lets wait and see.

[texas_]

From the limited information provided to us by USCIS/DOS, that sounds about right, good guestimate - lets wait and see.

Are these final action date or filing dates?

[excalibur123]

From the limited information provided to us by USCIS/DOS, that sounds about right, good guestimate - lets wait and see.

I feel Aceman you are being too optimistic. There are so many leftover applications from last year in EB2 and EB3 which will be counted this year. And couple with that about 8000 known EB2 cases beyond current cutoff in 2009. Combine with that EB3s which by my calculation would be around 5K atleast for 2009. With strong chances of downgrading happening EB3 wont get too far ahead of EB2 - if any at all. I would say both Eb2 and Eb3 would reach atmost Aug 2009 for FADs.

I would love to be proven wrong by a month-by-month analysis. The aggregate yearly numbers can be misleading.

[march1612]

It is very interesting on why USCIS would like to honor the filing dates at this point. This shows DOS/USCIS would like to estimate the actual demand of all EB2 and EB3 cases until May 2010.

Remember 8000 known EB2 cases beyond current cutoff in 2009 also contain cases who have approved 140 EB3. Having said that most of the demand might be visible by end of October when USCIS might go back to honoring final action dates.

I heard EB5 will be abolished around end of September. Is this true? if Yes, will there be a spill over to EB2 or EB3?

[excalibur123]

It is very interesting on why USCIS would like to honor the filing dates at this point. This shows DOS/USCIS would like to estimate the actual demand of all EB2 and EB3 cases until May 2010.

Remember 8000 known EB2 cases beyond current cutoff in 2009 also contain cases who have approved 140 EB3. Having said that most of the demand might be visible by end of October when USCIS might go back to honoring final action dates.

I heard EB5 will be abolished around end of September. Is this true? if Yes, will there be a spill over to EB2 or EB3?


I don't agree that EB2 2009 Pending inventory contains any EB3s or at least a significant number of it. The dates went past Mar 2009 for EB2 only once in past and the speed they moved with and then retrogressed left little time to file eb2 perm and I140 for any eb3s. I know this because I was there :)

Infact I can imagine a number of EB2s from 2009-10 PDs would be then unmarried ones, who now have additional dependents to file for. (e.g. labor filed in 2009 - age 27; date current in 2012 - age 29-30)

[Spectator]

I heard EB5 will be abolished around end of September. Is this true? if Yes, will there be a spill over to EB2 or EB3?

This has been going on since at least FY2012 for both:

Employment Fourth Preference Certain Religious Workers (SR)

and

Employment Fifth Preference Categories (I5 and R5)

In both cases, they are a subset of the total visas issued under the category.

For EB5, however, almost all of the visas issued are under this sub-category because it requires a $500k, rather than a $1M investment.

Congress has continually reauthorized the programs (often as part of a CR), punting a final decision to others. I expect that to continue.

It's likely that EB5 will eventually be reformed, increasing the $500k currently needed for these sub-groups to $1.3M (just adjusts for inflation since 1990).

I'm not sure that will have much effect.

There's years worth of approvals grandfathered into the old limit and I suspect there are sufficient Chinese who could afford the increased limit.

If it were abolished at the end of FY2018, then maybe there might be a couple of years where there would be SO from EB5 to EB1, who would likely consume it all. After that, there would be enough demand from those willing to invest $1M in the other parts of the EB5 program that are unaffected.

The Certain Religious Workers part of EB4 accounts for about 1k of 10k EB4 approvals each FY. Other retrogressed Countries within EB4 would use any visas freed if the program was abolished.

[march1612]

What to Expect in the Visa Bulletin – as of September 2018
http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-as-of-september-2018/

CO did not mentioned at what rate EB2-I would progress in FY19.

[iatiam]

I feel Aceman you are being too optimistic. There are so many leftover applications from last year in EB2 and EB3 which will be counted this year. And couple with that about 8000 known EB2 cases beyond current cutoff in 2009. Combine with that EB3s which by my calculation would be around 5K atleast for 2009. With strong chances of downgrading happening EB3 wont get too far ahead of EB2 - if any at all. I would say both Eb2 and Eb3 would reach atmost Aug 2009 for FADs.

I would love to be proven wrong by a month-by-month analysis. The aggregate yearly numbers can be misleading.

July 485 inventory shows about 1,000 till about March 15th. That's not much and given two more months of SO, that inventory would have been wiped off which is the reason why dates moved in October.

Iatiam

[iatiam]

There are too many variables here. For one, there are people with multiple PERMS - EB2 & EB3 who have never been current. There are people with multiple petitions in family for spouses. In fact, most of the people I know who have EB3I PDs after 2009 have changed jobs just to upgrade. Whether or not they will upgrade/downgrade is a question time can tell.

Also, people have moved from EB3/EB2 to EB1 as well. Many companies (esp. WITCHes) have used this loophole to their advantage

[Justmyself]

The only clear number we have is EB2 I has about 14000 numbers already with AOS and just waiting for GC. This number is gold for now. In a situation where are the other parameters are static, we can safely say Eb2-I till May 2010 would take 3 years (19,20,21) to clear this.

Now for the hard part for EB3. Last year we got 6600 for EB3-I and for FY 18 also we might be getting a similar number. EB3-I primaries with approved 140's from 2007 to 2018 beginning is 55,000. Ignore 30% duplicates/ported/spouse primary/greened in 2018 f this number should be around under 37,000. Add one dependent average for calculation would give us a rough total demand of 75,000 (just a ball park from calculations) till 2018. This averages to a demand of 7500 per year.

However 2009 and 2010 US recession would have resulted in less filing in any case. Now with no premiums for I140, I would put my neck out and say, that EB3 I has the potential to clear both 2009 and 2010 in FY 2019. I am also including the porters from 2009 and 2010 in this list who did not do the AOS.

So by FY 19 end, EB2-I might have a September 2009 date, EB3 -I with May 2010 date. A conservative take.

With due respect to your calculation, when do you think EB3I Mar 2011 will be able to file 485? My spouses H1 expires in Oct,2019 and we are home owners here. Looking at the current H1 rejection trends, we were planning on putting our home for sale next summer but the Oct VB has got us thinking if we should instead put our home for lease instead, if things dont go the right way. Your post also seems very encouraging for people like us. Any educated guesstimate on what to expect for EB3I Mar 2011?

[AceMan]

With due respect to your calculation, when do you think EB3I Mar 2011 will be able to file 485? My spouses H1 expires in Oct,2019 and we are home owners here. Looking at the current H1 rejection trends, we were planning on putting our home for sale next summer but the Oct VB has got us thinking if we should instead put our home for lease instead, if things dont go the right way. Your post also seems very encouraging for people like us. Any educated guesstimate on what to expect for EB3I Mar 2011?


I have a Feb 2011 PD. My H1 expires in Dec 2019 and I am also an home owner. Selling, leasing a house is all personal depending on personal financial needs and we cannot worry about things not in our control, in my opinion.

So as Spec said in the earlier post we don't have inventory for EB3 I, the following scenario happened for EB2 -I in FY 2012. From Oct-2011 to April -2012, the dates moved from July 2007 through to May 2010. Also as Spec mentioned a Memo gave it the nitro boost at that time..

In 2019, EB3 is not having that nitro boost.

All we can pray for is low EB3-ROW demand for the first few months, and CO will advance the filing date for 3-4 months well into 2011 so that we can file 485. Along with USCIS respecting filing date. :-D Eternal optimist.

[Justmyself]

I have a Feb 2011 PD. My H1 expires in Dec 2019 and I am also an home owner. Selling, leasing a house is all personal depending on personal financial needs and we cannot worry about things not in our control, in my opinion.

So as Spec said in the earlier post we don't have inventory for EB3 I, the following scenario happened for EB2 -I in FY 2012. From Oct-2011 to April -2012, the dates moved from July 2007 through to May 2010. Also as Spec mentioned a Memo gave it the nitro boost at that time..

In 2019, EB3 is not having that nitro boost.

All we can pray for is low EB3-ROW demand for the first few months, and CO will advance the filing date for 3-4 months well into 2011 so that we can file 485. Along with USCIS respecting filing date. :-D Eternal optimist.

I dont expect them to move EB3I past May 2010 in FY19 for sure. Im just looking at the rough estimate for somebody with an early 2011 EB3 date to file for 485. If based on the numbers, there is a possibility of that happening in 2-3 years, it wl help plan what to do with the house. All this while we had assumed it will take minimum 5 yrs but this bulletin has given us some hopes. Im not aware of the expected EB3 numbers in 2010 and your post looked like you had some rough calculations based on the PERM data which is why I put the question here.

[rocketfast]

Murthy has some interesting tidbits.
https://www.murthy.com/2018/09/21/october-2018-visa-bulletin-check-in-unwelcome-news-for-eb1-india-and-china/


Short-Term Predictions for EB3 India
Although there was some speculation of the cutoff date for EB3 India possibly advancing past that of EB2 India, Mr. Oppenheim implies that this probably will not occur. He notes that EB3 India saw relatively rapid advancement in recent months in order to generate demand for next fiscal year. If, as expected, these immigrant visa numbers start getting used, the cutoff date for EB3 India will not be able to advance much.


Cutoff Dates in DF Chart to Predict Future Movement
One additional insight provided by Mr. Oppenheim is how he determines what date to list on the DF chart, which typically has more favorable cutoff dates than the FA chart. The dates Mr. Oppenheim sets in the DF chart are where he expects that category’s FA cutoff date to be within the next 8-to-12 months.

[lville]

Whew!! My PD is May 22, 2009 EB2-I. I really hope filing date for EB-2 moves ahead a little or else I'll have to port back to EB-3. EB2 filing date is stuck on May 22, 2009 since last few months which happens to be my date. I'm sure there other folks in same boat, but this is killing me.

Unfortunately I just ported from EB3 to EB2 last month.

[jimmys]

Are traffic tickets need to be reported in new I-485? If so, anyone who filed in 2018 did it?

[jimmys]

Murthy has some interesting tidbits.
https://www.murthy.com/2018/09/21/october-2018-visa-bulletin-check-in-unwelcome-news-for-eb1-india-and-china/

I don't think anyone expects EB3-I to hit 2012 in FY 19. I don't think it will go back to 2005 either. It's more probable the EB-3 I FAD might end somewhere in 2009 for FY 19. Mostly Oct 1,2009. For EB-2 I, if only annual quota is available, it may not even reach July/August 2009. This is based on July 485 inventory. So the CO's comment was not too off. As a matter of fact if you take FAD, it's the EB-2 that's ahead of EB-3 India now.

It remains to be seen how much demand EB3-I generates for 2008/2009. After the spillover rule change(2008?) not many chose to file in EB3-I(There are ratios like 70% EB2 vs 30% EB3). Besides that, the horizontal SO that EB3-I gets in EB3 category will move forward the dates. EB3-I May,2018 final action date was set to Nov 01,2008 and all we got in July EB-3 I inventory,which was released 3 months after May, was only ~500 cases. I think the reason was, post July 2007 and 2008 EB2I dates have been current for more than 5 years where EB3I was stuck somewhere in 2004/2005. So many would have moved jobs/ported who were stuck in EB3-I 2007/2008 PDs. Those may have already obtained GC in EB-2. I think that's the reason we're not seeing too many applications in the July inventory for EB3-I. And, the EB-2 2009 PD people most likely won't downgrade as their dates are pretty close. EB3-I demand is mostly going to be in 2009 rather than 2007/2008 in my opinion.

[redsox2009]

Are traffic tickets need to be reported in new I-485? If so, anyone who filed in 2018 did it?

Dude

If that is the case then I might need more than 7 pages for I-485. Damn that gas pedal........It is not my fault, it is gas pedal fault. All I did was I stepped on it. :p:p:p:p

[march1612]

All Horizontal SO in EB3 will go to EB3-C until EB3-I inventory is built.

[jimmys]

All Horizontal SO in EB3 will go to EB3-C until EB3-I inventory is built.

In that case,China has only 71 cases pending in EB3 category as per July bulletin :cool:

[AceMan]

All Horizontal SO in EB3 will go to EB3-C until EB3-I inventory is built.

South Korea and Philippines take a huge chunk. I think Philippines will be current in EB3 this FY. South Korea always has a steady demand in both EB2 and 3.

EB3 India should get around 10 K if the demand for ROW is low in EB3.

[suninphx]

South Korea and Philippines take a huge chunk. I think Philippines will be current in EB3 this FY. South Korea always has a steady demand in both EB2 and 3.

EB3 India should get around 10 K if the demand for ROW is low in EB3.

I have a basic question:

Until recently EB3I was not even getting their own quota. What changed so drastically that we are expecting EB3I to get 10K visas? ( I just want to know what am I missing)

[rocketfast]

Until recently EB3I was not even getting their own quota. What changed so drastically that we are expecting EB3I to get 10K visas? ( I just want to know what am I missing)

If I vaguely remember (unless my memory has tricked me) , it was demand destruction from nurses abandoning their petitions in EB3-ROW because of the backlog. That is my fear for EB3-ROW. Now that it is current again, what is stopping the nurses from re-applying via consular processing..

[AceMan]

I have a basic question:

Until recently EB3I was not even getting their own quota. What changed so drastically that we are expecting EB3I to get 10K visas? ( I just want to know what am I missing)

Porting was the only option before. EB3-ROW was also backlogged till 2nd quarter of 2017. EB3 I got 6600 in 2017 and expecting similar numbers in 2018. The biggest consumer of EB3-ROW SO is Philippines and they are expected to be current this FY. Hence my optimism that EB3 I might get 10K.

[jimmys]

If ****aguely remember (unless my memory has tricked me) , it was demand destruction from nurses abandoning their petitions in EB3-ROW because of the backlog. That is my fear for EB3-ROW. Now that it is current again, what is stopping the nurses from re-applying via consular processing..

Perhaps the expiry of H1C visas contributing to less EB3 Philippines workers in US?

[Spectator]

Perhaps the expiry of H1C visas contributing to less EB3 Philippines workers in US?

That was very restrictive visa.

Only 500 could be issued a year and the number of qualifying hospitals who could sponsor it was very low (about 14 according to Wikipedia).

The validity was for 3 years, non-renewable and once held, the person could never apply for it again.

Most adjustments would be from H1B for specialty nurses, but the vast majority of Filipino nurses in the past were RN who used Consular Processing.

There certainly was a period where EB3 was quite heavily retrogressed for Philippines and many probably abandoned, while others just waited it out. With relatively low wait times currently, I don't see any reason why the numbers would lower, especially as many have become wiser about qualifying at at least the BSN level which allows use of the H1B visa.

[suninphx]

Thanks all for chiming in.

At one of the very large bay area company where my friend works, the HR had following reply (after receiving multiple queries):

"They would want to see more data and how (much) it actually benefits employee to switch the priority queue. Then they will formulate a policy and make a decision case by case basis". So I was trying to gauge some early data.

I really really hope that people show diligence and not harm each other's chances by multiple filings in a hurry thus providing excuse to not move dates.

But after years and years of waiting if some people want to take their own chances can't blame them.

This is going to be very interesting FY.. hopefully we get best case scenario for every one.

[march272010]

Lawyer has sent RFE reply (medicals and 325a) and in a single day got alerts RFE response received. How come Uscis working so diligently and will they come to March 2010 at all in FY 2019 ��

[EB2/eb3]

Any idea what this new proposed rule of in admissibility on public charge grounds is, when this tsunami will likely hit and how bad?

[redsox2009]

August CO Visa Issuance data is out.


Here is the 2018 August DOS data.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
00
00
01
00
00
00
25
26


EB2
10
01
02
31
85
03
91
229



EB3
011
088
018
356
29
08
345
855


EB4
003
004
000
011
000
003
109
130


EB5
060
033
008
003
027
000
108
239


Total
84
126
029
401
141
014
684
1479

[redsox2009]

YOD DOS Data total.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
1457
0183
0074
0012
0281
0018
1821
3846


EB2
0089
0069
0042
0370
1149
0032
1358
3109



EB3
0509
0744
0217
4727
0446
0093
3678
10414


EB4
036
188
005
057
036
041
1356
1719


EB5
3782
0348
0066
0012
0438
0658
1934
7238


Total
5873
1532
0404
5178
2350
0842
10147
26326

[texas_]

EB3 Phillipines got the highest chunk in August. Now getting an H1B approval and applying for GC is hard i believe eb3 I would benefit to some extent

Just my thought!!

[srisri]

I
Any idea what this new proposed rule of in admissibility on public charge grounds is, when this tsunami will likely hit and how bad?

If you happen to find any info let me know... i’m also eagerly waiting for actual verbiage in the memo.

[Nishant_imt]

Hi Spec, I sent you a question in your mailbox. Can you please give me some insight?

[EB3Iwaiting]

I

If you happen to find any info let me know... i’m also eagerly waiting for actual verbiage in the memo.

Greg has posted a detailed summary - if anyone is interested:

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2018/09/25/siskind-summary-the-proposed-public-charge-rule/
.

Important part to note is that extensions of status forms will contain these questions - forms I-129 and I-539.

" Aliens must remain self-sufficient

for the entire period of their

stay. DHS will now consider an alien

’

s financial status in determining if the alien has maintained

their current nonimmigrant status. Questions will be added to

the I-129 and I-539 regarding

this. Employers will have to ask their workers about this i

n order to complete the forms."

Don't think any H1B will disqualify but as usual...an added hassle.

[akshaya8]

Hi Spec and other gurus

what is your take on below Did EB2 India got 8K+ for Fy2018?

Below is inventory for EB2 india

Year October 2017 Report July 2018 Report
2008 - 8258 227
2009 - 8820 10831
2010 - 1763 4677

Total 19466 15826

1. Total count down by 3,600 this is despite increase in number for 2009 & 2010 about 5K in July 2018 inventory. July 2008 numbers for 2009 and 2010 are in sync with earlier reports.
So 5000 + 3,600 = 8,600 got approved.

2. 2008 number reduced to 277 from 8258 This is down by 8000 + in first 3 months of 2009 the number are down from about 3150 to 1300 about 1800 Reduced for Q1 2009. That means 9500 got approved.

[iatiam]

Greg has posted a detailed summary - if anyone is interested:

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2018/09/25/siskind-summary-the-proposed-public-charge-rule/
.

Important part to note is that extensions of status forms will contain these questions - forms I-129 and I-539.

" Aliens must remain self-sufficient

for the entire period of their

stay. DHS will now consider an alien

’

s financial status in determining if the alien has maintained

their current nonimmigrant status. Questions will be added to

the I-129 and I-539 regarding

this. Employers will have to ask their workers about this i

n order to complete the forms."

Don't think any H1B will disqualify but as usual...an added hassle.

Looks like Credit Scores can be used as a criteria for checking financial eligibility. Would this have an impact?

Iatiam

[dreamze]

Looks like Credit Scores can be used as a criteria for checking financial eligibility. Would this have an impact?

Iatiam

Considering trend from last year during Oct\Nov\Dec, every month EB2I Final Action Date was moved by 22 days. If the same trend continues this year, next bulletin date will be 21 Apr and next month after that will be 15 May. My very very optimistic guess.

[LASHAB]

My assessment is that with low to moderate SO and fast movement in EB3I resulting in downward porting the dates for EB2I can move to later part of 2009 (Oct/Nov) in this FY. Worst case scenario is Aug, best is Dec

[AceMan]

649, 1429, 1411 are the April, May and June data for India. For FY18 we had counted 3500 EB2 I till July 2018.

From July 2009 through to December 2009 we have another 6000.

The only way I see is absolutely low demand for Eb2-ROW in FY 19 which may result in about 10-12 K SO along with 2900 standard ones. That way EB2 can reach May 1st 2010 by the end of FY 19.

[EB3Iwaiting]

649, 1429, 1411 are the April, May and June data for India. For FY18 we had counted 3500 EB2 I till July 2018.

From July 2009 through to December 2009 we have another 6000.

The only way I see is absolutely low demand for Eb2-ROW in FY 19 which may result in about 10-12 K SO along with 2900 standard ones. That way EB2 can reach May 1st 2010 by the end of FY 19.

Don't think there is low demand in ROW. PERM approvals continue to be high. I also noticed interviews are being scheduled around 6-7 months after I-485 submittal.

[AceMan]

Don't think there is low demand in ROW. PERM approvals continue to be high. I also noticed interviews are being scheduled around 6-7 months after I-485 submittal.

You need to see the possibility somewhere. No SO from EB1, EB3 SO if any will be eaten by EB1 again, EB2 I has no where to look, and the only place would be EB2-ROW, China or Philippines.

[srisri]

Greg has posted a detailed summary - if anyone is interested:

http://blog.ilw.com/gregsiskind/2018/09/25/siskind-summary-the-proposed-public-charge-rule/
.

Important part to note is that extensions of status forms will contain these questions - forms I-129 and I-539.

" Aliens must remain self-sufficient

for the entire period of their

stay. DHS will now consider an alien

’

s financial status in determining if the alien has maintained

their current nonimmigrant status. Questions will be added to

the I-129 and I-539 regarding

this. Employers will have to ask their workers about this i

n order to complete the forms."

Don't think any H1B will disqualify but as usual...an added hassle.

Thanks for the link.

[canada]

http://immigrationgirl.com/dhs-to-propose-regulation-using-credit-score-medical-condition-financial-liabilities-as-factors-in-green-card-process-visa-interview-extensions-and-change-of-status/


DHS proposals for visa/ I485/ Green card approval- credit scores, medical condition, financial liabilities as requirements

[maverick23]

I have an urgent question and request some guidance/advice.

My priority date is 31 July 2007 (EB3-I) and my AOS was applied in April 2018 when dates got current (missed the opportunity in July 2007). However, since a part of my company was bought last year (my employment got transferred as well), the new employer applied for 140 amendment (successor in interest) along with AOS.

The 140 amendment is filed in regular processing and is still pending (5 months). The original 140 was approved by Texas and the current 140 amendment is also pending with the same center.

My question is do I have the option to convert to premium at this point? I have scoured the internet and have not got a definitive answer. Some lawyers say USCIS will not accept premium processing for 140 SII as the original labor is provided with the application. However, I have seen some say that premium processing can be requested after the application has been pending for a while (assuming to give time to USCIS to pull the original labor out of the archive file).

If I do have the option to convert to premium, I am willing to pay the fees on my behalf. Can someone please advice?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I have an urgent question and request some guidance/advice.

My priority date is 31 July 2007 (EB3-I) and my AOS was applied in April 2018 when dates got current (missed the opportunity in July 2007). However, since a part of my company was bought last year (my employment got transferred as well), the new employer applied for 140 amendment (successor in interest) along with AOS.

The 140 amendment is filed in regular processing and is still pending (5 months). The original 140 was approved by Texas and the current 140 amendment is also pending with the same center.

My question is do I have the option to convert to premium at this point? I have scoured the internet and have not got a definitive answer. Some lawyers say USCIS will not accept premium processing for 140 SII as the original labor is provided with the application. However, I have seen some say that premium processing can be requested after the application has been pending for a while (assuming to give time to USCIS to pull the original labor out of the archive file).

If I do have the option to convert to premium, I am willing to pay the fees on my behalf. Can someone please advice?

You are saying you already applied for AOS. Where does the question of premium processing arise?

[maverick23]

You are saying you already applied for AOS. Where does the question of premium processing arise?

I am referring to the I-140 Successor In Interest amendment which is currently filed under regular processing. Do I have the option to switch the application to premium processing ? I am of the opinion that USCIS does not allow for premium processing in SII cases but had also read conflicting opinions on some immigration forums.

[saagar_is_cool]

649, 1429, 1411 are the April, May and June data for India. For FY18 we had counted 3500 EB2 I till July 2018.

From July 2009 through to December 2009 we have another 6000.

The only way I see is absolutely low demand for Eb2-ROW in FY 19 which may result in about 10-12 K SO along with 2900 standard ones. That way EB2 can reach May 1st 2010 by the end of FY 19.

Does this mean that EB2I April 2009 will clear in this FY19 within the 2800 quota without needing any spillover. Ours is April 17 2009 and eagerly waiting to be greened due to some unfortunate/uncontrollable scheme of events happening at work. We recently got RFEs for Medicals and 485J and after responding, got 485J approval notice recently.

[Ind2009]

Came to learn USCIS has flipped back to Final Action dates for Oct filing.

[Ind2009]

I am only hoping someone who is responsible for updating the HTML messed up and took the September page and did a save as and updated.
The mainpage shows only Final Action dates will be accepted for Employment Category for Oct 18.

https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

The link inside shows Filing dates will be used for Employment Category for Oct 18.

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-october-2018

[Spectator]

Came to learn USCIS has flipped back to Final Action dates for Oct filing.

I think this is something of a storm in a teacup.

On the main https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo page, someone has forgotten to update the Current Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts wording for EB to reflect the fact that Filing Dates can be used.


Current Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts

For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018 (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-october-2018.html).

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Final Action Dates chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018 (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-october-2018.html).

October 2018 (https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-october-2018)


The actual USCIS page for October 2018 (https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-file-your-adjustment-status-application-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-preference-visas-october-2018) still shows that Filing Dates can be used.

UPDATE

USCIS have fixed the error. The main page now reads:


Current Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts

For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018.

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018.

October 2018

[Ind2009]

They just updated the page.

https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Current Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts

For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018.

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018.

[idliman]

Does this mean that EB2I April 2009 will clear in this FY19 within the 2800 quota without needing any spillover. Ours is April 17 2009 and eagerly waiting to be greened due to some unfortunate/uncontrollable scheme of events happening at work. We recently got RFEs for Medicals and 485J and after responding, got 485J approval notice recently. No worries. You should be current before Christmas and hopefully have GC in hand by then. They say the last few meters are the hardest in a marathon. So just keep yourself prepared for any situation mentally. Good Luck.

[EB2-03252009]

Spec,

any chances of posting trackitt data for 2019FY? Thanks!

[Spectator]

USCIS has finally published the Yearbook statistics for LPRs for FY2017.

They can be found here (https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook).

As for EB1C, the of primary approvals as the whole of EB1 continues to decline from the peak seen in FY2015.
EB1A approvals, as a %, continue to increase.

% Breakdown of EB1 By Sub-Category
For Primary Approvals

FY -------- EB1A ---- EB1B ---- EB1C
FY2012 -- 21.91% -- 20.84% -- 57.25%
FY2013 -- 25.05% -- 19.21% -- 55.74%
FY2014 -- 24.50% -- 18.49% -- 57.00%
FY2015 -- 25.35% -- 16.31% -- 58.35%
FY2016 -- 31.26% -- 16.37% -- 52.37%
FY2017 -- 34.34% -- 15.17% -- 50.49%

[qesehmk]

What a sad story ... in both 2016 and 2017 EB category underutilized quota by 2.5K.

This is painful and outrageous..


USCIS has finally published the Yearbook statistics for LPRs for FY2017.

They can be found here (https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook).

As for EB1C, the of primary approvals as the whole of EB1 continues to decline from the peak seen in FY2015.
EB1A approvals, as a %, continue to increase.

% Breakdown of EB1 By Sub-Category
For Primary Approvals

FY -------- EB1A ---- EB1B ---- EB1C
FY2012 -- 21.91% -- 20.84% -- 57.25%
FY2013 -- 25.05% -- 19.21% -- 55.74%
FY2014 -- 24.50% -- 18.49% -- 57.00%
FY2015 -- 25.35% -- 16.31% -- 58.35%
FY2016 -- 31.26% -- 16.37% -- 52.37%
FY2017 -- 34.34% -- 15.17% -- 50.49%

[mcmilers]

I know this has been asked before but cannot find much info about it. My PD is Feb 2010 and received a RFE for G-325A, I-693 and Supp J (Nebraska Processing Center). My Company attorneys are obviously asking me to respond and I will, but this this is a waste of time.
Was there any resolution on these random RFEs for 2010 PDs?
Also, the attorney was saying she hasnt seen RFE for G-325A in a long time. and it might be an error. does anyone have any experience with it?

[vyruss]

What a sad story ... in both 2016 and 2017 EB category underutilized quota by 2.5K.

This is painful and outrageous..

This is indeed very sad!! So many people waiting in limbo, in these days they should have a process in place when they have so many people waiting, assign the visas first so they do not go waste or use them the next year. There is no accountability!!

[bikenlalan]

From CI Law group,
https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2018/10/04/visa-bulletin-update-eb-1-india-and-china-update-not-good-news/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newslett er&utm_campaign=d3b900fb92-Weekly_Newsletter_Oct_04_2018&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1074141ca5-d3b900fb92-385977529&mc_cid=d3b900fb92&mc_eid=ab43311d24

Our office has obtained an updated set of expected cutoff date movements over the next several months as we begin the new fiscal year. Mr. Charles Oppenheim who is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of State (DOS) (he is the person responsible for the Visa Bulletin) has provided updated explanations and expectations for fiscal year 2019 (FY19) which begins on October 1, 2018. The main takeaway is that EB-1 India and China will move very slowly, it at all, over the coming months.

EB-1 – Not Good News for India and China

Mr. Oppenheim is pessimistic that the EB-1 Worldwide final action date will advance before the end of this calendar year. Forward movement is not very likely in November and December but there should be forward movement in early 2019. Demand is sufficiently high so it is not possible to predict that EB-1 ROW will become current in FY 2019.

There is no advancement of EB-1 China or EB-1 India expected before January 2019 and it is “almost guaranteed” that both categories will be subject to a final action date through the fiscal year. This is not good news for EB-1 China and India applicants.

EB-2 and EB-3 India – Watch for “Flip”

We continue to monitor possible advancement of EB-3 India where EB-3 India would surpass EB-2 India and which will create favorable conditions for downgrading from EB-2 to EB-3 India. We will monitor and report on strategies over the coming weeks if it appears that this is going to happen.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I know this has been asked before but cannot find much info about it. My PD is Feb 2010 and received a RFE for G-325A, I-693 and Supp J (Nebraska Processing Center). My Company attorneys are obviously asking me to respond and I will, but this this is a waste of time.
Was there any resolution on these random RFEs for 2010 PDs?
Also, the attorney was saying she hasnt seen RFE for G-325A in a long time. and it might be an error. does anyone have any experience with it?
Looks like you will be poorer by $ 750 :rolleyes:. Bottomline is if you don't reply to the RFE, your application is liable to be denied. You don't have a choice.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

From CI Law group,
https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2018/10/04/visa-bulletin-update-eb-1-india-and-china-update-not-good-news/?utm_source=Capitol+Immigration+Law+Group+Newslett er&utm_campaign=d3b900fb92-Weekly_Newsletter_Oct_04_2018&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1074141ca5-d3b900fb92-385977529&mc_cid=d3b900fb92&mc_eid=ab43311d24

Our office has obtained an updated set of expected cutoff date movements over the next several months as we begin the new fiscal year. Mr. Charles Oppenheim who is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of State (DOS) (he is the person responsible for the Visa Bulletin) has provided updated explanations and expectations for fiscal year 2019 (FY19) which begins on October 1, 2018. The main takeaway is that EB-1 India and China will move very slowly, it at all, over the coming months.

EB-1 – Not Good News for India and China

Mr. Oppenheim is pessimistic that the EB-1 Worldwide final action date will advance before the end of this calendar year. Forward movement is not very likely in November and December but there should be forward movement in early 2019. Demand is sufficiently high so it is not possible to predict that EB-1 ROW will become current in FY 2019.

There is no advancement of EB-1 China or EB-1 India expected before January 2019 and it is “almost guaranteed” that both categories will be subject to a final action date through the fiscal year. This is not good news for EB-1 China and India applicants.

EB-2 and EB-3 India – Watch for “Flip”

We continue to monitor possible advancement of EB-3 India where EB-3 India would surpass EB-2 India and which will create favorable conditions for downgrading from EB-2 to EB-3 India. We will monitor and report on strategies over the coming weeks if it appears that this is going to happen.

I have been telling everyone who is willing to listen, If you have the chance to file in EB3I, go for it!

[incredible]

Looks like you will be poorer by $ 750 :rolleyes:. Bottomline is if you don't reply to the RFE, your application is liable to be denied. You don't have a choice.

I agree. We are also in the same boat (02/2010 PD) and received RFE last month for G325, Supplement-J and medicals. We have just responded. Regardless of whether it is useful or not, I guess we do have to respond.

[Nishant_imt]

I agree. We are also in the same boat (02/2010 PD) and received RFE last month for G325, Supplement-J and medicals. We have just responded. Regardless of whether it is useful or not, I guess we do have to respond.

I have paid this 5 times until now.

[Desi Dude]

Folks with 2010 PD EB2 getting RFE doesn't make sense. I know people with May 2009 PD EB2, who have not received any RFE since filing I-485.

The only conclusion I can come to is that those who are getting RFEs have changed jobs or have other complications.

[suninphx]

Folks with 2010 PD EB2 getting RFE doesn't make sense. I know people with May 2009 PD EB2, who have not received any RFE since filing I-485.

The only conclusion I can come to is that those who are getting RFEs have changed jobs or have other complications.

Mainly NSC was sending RFEs. Not sure if that has changed recently.

[jimmys]

Came to learn USCIS has flipped back to Final Action dates for Oct filing.

I think once the month starts they can't go back on dates. Any date flips has to happen before the actual month of filing. That's what happened in 2015. DoS took back the dates for Oct 2015 in September 2015 itself. When the case was filed, the government replied they're not legally obligated to give the dates before the month of filing.

[rabp77]

Folks with 2010 PD EB2 getting RFE doesn't make sense. I know people with May 2009 PD EB2, who have not received any RFE since filing I-485.

The only conclusion I can come to is that those who are getting RFEs have changed jobs or have other complications.

yes...that is strange. my friend and I have Nov 2009 pd, and have not received any RFEs

[rabp77]

Folks with 2010 PD EB2 getting RFE doesn't make sense. I know people with May 2009 PD EB2, who have not received any RFE since filing I-485.

The only conclusion I can come to is that those who are getting RFEs have changed jobs or have other complications.

Yeah....my friend and i have Nov 2009 pd, and have not received any RFEs.
It is strange that Feb 2010 is getting RFEs.

[asankaran]

My priority date is EB2 March 2010 and just got EAD approved for 1 year expiring Sept 30, 2019. Any thoughts if IT could get current by then ? I was planning to travel next summer and this has caused bit of confusion.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

My take on VB:
I guess there are NO more visas left for EB1-India & EB2-India for FY18. Also EB2-India can get retrogressed back anytime.
Only hope for any SO left is for EB3-India.
For all EB2-India (2009 & 2010): be prepare for downgrades and grab your GC from EB3-I quota in next 1 year.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58931#post58931

looks to me EB3-India PDs will advance faster than predicted in the above link.

Can you create one more trend chart like the iconic chart you had created back in the day?

[Moveon]

Once you respond to the RFE - G325, Supplement-J and medicals is there anyway to track the progress on the RFE. All I got was an email that RFE response was received and the case status says the same.
My PD is 2009 Dec.

I am not sure if there are numbers to go that far this fiscal. I guess that would mean there would be another RFE next year as the medicals are valid for only one year

[march1612]

My priority date is EB2 March 2010 and just got EAD approved for 1 year expiring Sept 30, 2019. Any thoughts if IT could get current by then ? I was planning to travel next summer and this has caused bit of confusion.

Which service center did you file your 485?

[Moveon]

My priority date is EB2 March 2010 and just got EAD approved for 1 year expiring Sept 30, 2019. Any thoughts if IT could get current by then ? I was planning to travel next summer and this has caused bit of confusion.

What about your AP . I assume that's valid for a year too. If you travel while your AP is in process it will get denied. I had that experience this year. One option will be to renew the EAD as that will not be denied while traveling, come back and file for AP.

I am not sure about the GC numbers and why they are sending RFEs for folks who have PDs in 03/2010. My friend has not changed the co for last 10 years and got an RFE last week for 03/2010 (Nebraska).

[asankaran]

Which service center did you file your 485?

It was with Texas Service Center. I made a mistake of filing it 6 months early anticipating delay in approval but to my chagrin got it approved in less than two month.

[Umesh1209]

I applied for EAD 6 months in advance and I got my approval in less than 2 months. I am approved for 2 years. My wife applied two weeks before me and her case is still pending. In my opinion, the duration, speed and accuracy of EAD renewal is purely based on who is working on your case.

[smuggymba]

My priority date is EB2 March 2010 and just got EAD approved for 1 year expiring Sept 30, 2019. Any thoughts if IT could get current by then ? I was planning to travel next summer and this has caused bit of confusion.

Mine is 30th March, 2010 in EB2 and recently got 2 year EAD (2018 to 2020). I expect to renew at least one more time from 2020-2022....I hope to get GC sometime then from what I'm reading.

Mine is TSC and this time around my EAD/AP combo got approved in 28 days. crazy.

[tenyearsgone]

It was with Texas Service Center. I made a mistake of filing it 6 months early anticipating delay in approval but to my chagrin got it approved in less than two month.

Better to be safe and apply 6 months in advance, since you cannot predict delays. If you are using EAD for work authorization, then a real delay may be more problematic.
Also, my guess is that you were just unlucky to get a 1-year renewal. Many folks (including me) have applied 6 months in advance and got a 2-year renewal.

[Desi Dude]

Well, the 180 day extension rule allows people to continue working while EAD renewal is in process. So applying early doesn't mean much anymore.

[akshaya8]

Better to play safe. If it rejected for any mistake then it is issue. It Happens.......

[Moveon]

Once you send an RFE response (for the 485 with medicals , supplements etc ) is there are any way to track the progress? IOWs how do I know if they have processed the RFE and are OK with the response ?

[Desi Dude]

I know a lot of people who have 2009 PD and have not received any RFE. Is that normal? What should they do, if anything?

[idliman]

I know a lot of people who have 2009 PD and have not received any RFE. Is that normal? What should they do, if anything? I know a few people in TSC who did not get RFE's. I am one of them. On the other hand I know a few people in NSC who "all" got their RFE's (even with Mar 2010 PD). I think the NSC issued RFEs for everyone for whatever reason it may be. If anyone has alternative theories, it would be interesting to hear.

[idliman]

Mine is 30th March, 2010 in EB2 and recently got 2 year EAD (2018 to 2020). I expect to renew at least one more time from 2020-2022....I hope to get GC sometime then from what I'm reading.

Mine is TSC and this time around my EAD/AP combo got approved in 28 days. crazy.
Wow. My RD at TSC for I765 renewal was 10AUG18. I am still waiting (approx 60 days). It looks like the decision is upto the officer handling your case.

[AceMan]

Coming back to the predictions, what is the potential movement forward? With USCIS accepting FD after 2 years, we have to see if they do it again for November. Will DHS move forward the FD again?

How is FAD going to move?

[gcy2k07]

hi everyone - hope someone can help: I am current in October (PD 3/25/09; RD 9/15/14). How long should I wait before submitting a service request for outside processing times? What do folks generally do when PD is current but there are no updates from USCIS? I read about contacting senator etc - when is this usually done? I understand that the last mile is the hardest :)

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Coming back to the predictions, what is the potential movement forward? With USCIS accepting FD after 2 years, we have to see if they do it again for November. Will DHS move forward the FD again?

How is FAD going to move?

EB3I Filing Date should jump into 2010. No movement for EB2I. FAD, may not move much as usual that date jumps towards the middle and end of the FY.

[AceMan]

EB3I Filing Date should jump into 2010. No movement for EB2I. FAD, may not move much as usual that date jumps towards the middle and end of the FY.

That might be interesting if the filing dates for Eb3 are pushed till May 2010. Also USCIS has to respect it. I don't see much EB3 2008 GC's coming through yet, so FAD movement may not in cards here. EB2 similar movement like this months bulletin, as we can see the demand shown by the latest pd.

[EB2/eb3]

That might be interesting if the filing dates for Eb3 are pushed till May 2010. Also USCIS has to respect it. I don't see much EB3 2008 GC's coming through yet, so FAD movement may not in cards here. EB2 similar movement like this months bulletin, as we can see the demand shown by the latest pd.
No movement in any category!

[srimurthy]

No movement in any category!

Nov bulletin is out
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2019/visa-bulletin-for-november-2018.html

[AceMan]

All it means is the immediate need for November can be handled by the demand from the current list. From EB2 perspective the numbers are already on the inventory, so no surprises there. For EB3 lack of data is unnerving, but I still hope for some good movement from 2nd quarter.

[bloddy1]

That might be interesting if the filing dates for Eb3 are pushed till May 2010. Also USCIS has to respect it. I don't see much EB3 2008 GC's coming through yet, so FAD movement may not in cards here. EB2 similar movement like this months bulletin, as we can see the demand shown by the latest pd.

A few thoughts; There is not going to be movement every month, especially for EB2 but for once every quarter and even then all movement is going to be range bound i.e., there is specific trend over long term but short term forward movement is all art no science. However, 11 out 12 months the dates would be within certain trendlines i.e., EB2 100 days per year and EB3 250-days per year. Even if there is monthly movement it will be at below pace.

Go Forward Clip per Month: 1 week for EB2 Filing, 2 weeks for EB2 Final while keeping a 30-day lag then when lag is complete filing jumps by 4-6 weeks, final keeps moving 2 weeks at a time.
EB3 pace looks a bit better but its wild wild west territory swings due to unreliable demand view, especially with Filing: EB3 Filing will be at a clip of 6 weeks per month with jump only once every 3-months and a lag of 8 weeks with Final.

1. EB3 Filing: Its likely that the next few months will continue to remain at the current filing date of Oct 09 to accumulate demand though there is trend of forward movement over a longer period in a stair step manner.
2. EB3 Final: Final date movement has will move ahead at a 2 week per month, so once every 3-months, we are looking at 6-week jumps.
3. EB2 - Filing: Don't bother
4. EB2 - Final : 2-weeks per month

So Oct 2019
EB2 FA/AF will be in Oct 15 2009/Nov15 2009 with a 6-week jumps projected around Jan, Apr & June 2019
EB3 looks hyperbolic right now but contingent on rev. porting EB3 FA/AF will be Oct 30 2009/Jan 22 2010 with big jump in June 2019.

1395

[nicky_0530]

Hello Everybody!

I've been a regular reader of this blog for the past few months and I really appreciate the wealth of information that is shared.

After the visa bulletin that was released for Nov 2018 and checking the inventory which is around 30K overall based out of July 2018 inventory report, I was assuming that CO would have to move the dates for this visa bulletin. But alas! the dates stay the same! What could be the reason behind the dates not getting moved.

[EB2/eb3]

A few thoughts; There is not going to be movement every month, especially for EB2 but for once every quarter and even then all movement is going to be range bound i.e., there is specific trend over long term but short term forward movement is all art no science. However, 11 out 12 months the dates would be within certain trendlines i.e., EB2 100 days per year and EB3 250-days per year. Even if there is monthly movement it will be at below pace.

Go Forward Clip per Month: 1 week for EB2 Filing, 2 weeks for EB2 Final while keeping a 30-day lag then when lag is complete filing jumps by 4-6 weeks, final keeps moving 2 weeks at a time.
EB3 pace looks a bit better but its wild wild west territory swings due to unreliable demand view, especially with Filing: EB3 Filing will be at a clip of 6 weeks per month with jump only once every 3-months and a lag of 8 weeks with Final.

1. EB3 Filing: Its likely that the next few months will continue to remain at the current filing date of Oct 09 to accumulate demand though there is trend of forward movement over a longer period in a stair step manner.
2. EB3 Final: Final date movement has will move ahead at a 2 week per month, so once every 3-months, we are looking at 6-week jumps.
3. EB2 - Filing: Don't bother
4. EB2 - Final : 2-weeks per month

So Oct 2019
EB2 FA/AF will be in Oct 15 2009/Nov15 2009 with a 6-week jumps projected around Jan, Apr & June 2019
EB3 looks hyperbolic right now but contingent on rev. porting EB3 FA/AF will be Oct 30 2009/Jan 22 2010 with big jump in June 2019.

1395
Very realistic prediction, thank you

[rocketfast]

After the visa bulletin that was released for Nov 2018 and checking the inventory which is around 30K overall based out of July 2018 inventory report, I was assuming that CO would have to move the dates for this visa bulletin. But alas! the dates stay the same! What could be the reason behind the dates not getting moved.

1. EB2-I likely received ~3000 GC last year (Oct 2017 - Sept 2018). So it is fair for CO to continue with that assumption. He does not need to move dates as there are a few years' worth of inventory for him. So it will only advance couple of months a year for the next couple of years.

2. EB3-I likely received ~6500 GC last year. Inventory till Aug 2007 has been exhausted. Current filing date is Oct 2009. CO likely thinks that there are 6500 people in EB3-I (and he also likely thinks that some people in EB2-I will downgrade) between Sept 2007 and Oct 2009. He will likely give it a couple of months before moving things.

[GCEB420]

Looking at the available Pending Employment-Based I-485 Inventory charts for the last few years:
MM/Year Grand Totals
01/2015 117,466
04/2015 124,521
07/2015 120,902
10/2015 120,127
01/2016 124,092
04/2016 117,731
10/2016 120,573
01/2017 130,900
04/2017 128,873
08/2017 144,223
10/2017 133,502
01/2018 103,675
04/2018 48,190
07/2018 29,471

If 140,000 are the available numbers given for employment based. Is the current inventory 29,471 as of July ?
Shouldn't the CO build the inventory for next year ?

[AceMan]

1. EB2-I likely received ~3000 GC last year (Oct 2017 - Sept 2018). So it is fair for CO to continue with that assumption. He does not need to move dates as there are a few years' worth of inventory for him. So it will only advance couple of months a year for the next couple of years.

2. EB3-I likely received ~6500 GC last year. Inventory till Aug 2007 has been exhausted. Current filing date is Oct 2009. CO likely thinks that there are 6500 people in EB3-I (and he also likely thinks that some people in EB2-I will downgrade) between Sept 2007 and Oct 2009. He will likely give it a couple of months before moving things.



I was comparing August 17 Demand data and July 18 Demand data.

EB3 I total numbers reduced from 8877 - 473 (Last quarter movement in 2017 and Last quarter movement in 2018 will be a factor with the actuals) ball park 8400
EB2 I total numbers reduced from 19104 - 15826 ball park 3300.

Total visas for 2018 for EB2/3 I might be around 11700. Visa statistics release later this year will get us to the actual variance.

[canada]

1. EB2-I likely received ~3000 GC last year (Oct 2017 - Sept 2018). So it is fair for CO to continue with that assumption. He does not need to move dates as there are a few years' worth of inventory for him. So it will only advance couple of months a year for the next couple of years.

2. EB3-I likely received ~6500 GC last year. Inventory till Aug 2007 has been exhausted. Current filing date is Oct 2009. CO likely thinks that there are 6500 people in EB3-I (and he also likely thinks that some people in EB2-I will downgrade) between Sept 2007 and Oct 2009. He will likely give it a couple of months before moving things.


So - with my priority date 21 August, 2009, EB2 - India, am I looking at 2021 to be just current with just 2 months movement in a year?

I will prepare myself psychologically rather than look forward to in 2019. Thanks

[suninphx]

All it means is the immediate need for November can be handled by the demand from the current list. From EB2 perspective the numbers are already on the inventory, so no surprises there. For EB3 lack of data is unnerving, but I still hope for some good movement from 2nd quarter.

Looks like perfect receipe for chocking downgrades and using extra EB3 numbers for EB1 at the end of FY.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Looks like perfect receipe for chocking downgrades and using extra EB3 numbers for EB1 at the end of FY.

I would agree with you, but I expect EB3I filing date to jump into 2010 sometime soon. It should be before April VB though, because it takes a minimum of 6 months to approve those applications.

[texas_]

I would agree with you, but I expect EB3I filing date to jump into 2010 sometime soon. It should be before April VB though, because it takes a minimum of 6 months to approve those applications.


Do you think EB3 I filing date would jump to October 2010 in FY 2020?

[AceMan]

I would agree with you, but I expect EB3I filing date to jump into 2010 sometime soon. It should be before April VB though, because it takes a minimum of 6 months to approve those applications.

I don't think filing date would move even in December. Once the first quarter is done, even if the filing dates jump to 2010, we are dependent on the condition that USCIS respecting it. Never since the filing date concept was introduced, USCIS accepted FD after 1st quarter. EB3 I 2008 dates getting GC is still showing a handful of people only.

[AceMan]

Do you think EB3 I filing date would jump to October 2010 in FY 2020?

That's a long way out at this point. The projections say EB3 I FAD can pass EB2 I by around 2nd quarter of FY 2019. At that point of time, CO will assess the demand for ROW in both EB 2 and 3, and if he sees the band width to do a big forward movement for EB3. Once that happens, you will start seeing people with both EB2 and 3 petitions utilizing their older petition to get the AOS which can reduce future movements.

So to answer your question EB3I reaching October 2010 in FY 2020, very high probability.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Do you think EB3 I filing date would jump to October 2010 in FY 2020?

My short answer would be - yes.

[Ind2009]

USCIS just confirmed they will be using the filing date for Nov 2018.
So this gives one more month for individuals who are trying to get their paperwork together.

[excalibur123]

Do you think EB3 I filing date would jump to October 2010 in FY 2020?

No way that would happen. People see big jumps as they happened for EB3 and draw wrong conclusions. If you look carefully big jumps happened in EB3 along with a crawl in EB2 - because of porting from EB3 to EB2.

Now one should expect the reverse - downporting would make EB3 crawl. This would happen as soon as EB3 FAD start nearing EB2 FAD.

In my view EB3 filing dates would be remain at end 2009 / early 2010 for a very long time to come. I can prove this with numbers but that's for another time.

[GCEB420]

hello all, Looking at the eb2 pending inventory for India from Jan 2010 to April 2010. 1700 jumped to 4700 between April 2018 inventory and October 2018 inventory ? how is this possible ?

[texas_]

No way that would happen. People see big jumps as they happened for EB3 and draw wrong conclusions. If you look carefully big jumps happened in EB3 along with a crawl in EB2 - because of porting from EB3 to EB2.

Now one should expect the reverse - downporting would make EB3 crawl. This would happen as soon as EB3 FAD start nearing EB2 FAD.

In my view EB3 filing dates would be remain at end 2009 / early 2010 for a very long time to come. I can prove this with numbers but that's for another time.

Look at the Inventory only 473 pending as of July 2018. Also, EB2 I whoever has EAD won't jump in so minus out 90% of EB2 off your numbers till April 2010 PD.

EB3 I might move aggressively but eventually slow down by hitting early to mid 2011

[AceMan]

Look at the Inventory only 473 pending as of July 2018. Also, EB2 I whoever has EAD won't jump in so minus out 90% of EB2 off your numbers till April 2010 PD.

EB3 I might move aggressively but eventually slow down by hitting early to mid 2011

This 473 does not include the petitions at FO. The future demand data's are only useful to gauge how the EB2 numbers are going down as long as they are not including FO data in there. I have an early 2011 PD in EB3 and I realistically expect to be current by mid FY 2020.

[Dondraper]

This 473 does not include the petitions at FO. The future demand data's are only useful to gauge how the EB2 numbers are going down as long as they are not including FO data in there. I have an early 2011 PD in EB3 and I realistically expect to be current by mid FY 2020.

Looks like what happened with China PD's in 2011-2012 is going to happen .EB2 will now start reverse porting and clog EB3. Eb2 & 3 India should move together at snails pace before the next recession. This is prevent the porters jumping to the faster ship. Hopefully they will clog the EB1 abuse by body shoppers to allow some overflow to EB2

[EB2/eb3]

Looks like what happened with China PD's in 2011-2012 is going to happen .EB2 will now start reverse porting and clog EB3. Eb2 & 3 India should move together at snails pace before the next recession. This is prevent the porters jumping to the faster ship. Hopefully they will clog the EB1 abuse by body shoppers to allow some overflow to EB2
I wish they change the SO rule to apply to most backlogged country’s most backlogged category, this will stop all portings and EB1 abuse as well.

[Spectator]

hello all, Looking at the eb2 pending inventory for India from Jan 2010 to April 2010. 1700 jumped to 4700 between April 2018 inventory and October 2018 inventory ? how is this possible ?
I think you should rather be asking why it went down to 1.7k for several reports, since that was non-nonsensical.

Here's the history of EB2-I 2010 since October 2014:

Oct-14 --- 4,811
Jan-15 --- 4,801
Apr-15 --- 4,779
Jul-15 --- 4,769
Oct-15 --- 4,768
Jan-16 --- 4,761
Apr-16 --- 4,728
Oct-16 --- 4,787
Jan-17 --- 4,748
Apr-17 --- 1,770
Aug-17 --- 4,725
Oct-17 --- 1,763
Jan-18 --- 1,754
Apr-18 --- 1,754
Jul-18 --- 4,677

[canada]

Looks like nobody answered my question

with my priority date in August, 2009, EB2 - India, am I looking at 2021 to be just current with just 2 months movement in a year?

I will prepare myself psychologically rather than look forward to in 2019.

Is it possible to be current by 2019 at all.Thanks

[rocketfast]

Looks like nobody answered my question

with my priority date in August, 2009, EB2 - India, am I looking at 2021 to be just current with just 2 months movement in a year?

I will prepare myself psychologically rather than look forward to in 2019.

Is it possible to be current by 2019 at all.Thanks

The demand inventory in EB2-I between March 2009 to August 2009 is ~5800. EB2I should get a minimum of 2800 green cards a year. You do the math. You are looking at approx 2020 September.

[GCEB420]

I think you should rather be asking why it went down to 1.7k for several reports, since that was non-nonsensical.

Here's the history of EB2-I 2010 since October 2014:

Oct-14 --- 4,811
Jan-15 --- 4,801
Apr-15 --- 4,779
Jul-15 --- 4,769
Oct-15 --- 4,768
Jan-16 --- 4,761
Apr-16 --- 4,728
Oct-16 --- 4,787
Jan-17 --- 4,748
Apr-17 --- 1,770
Aug-17 --- 4,725
Oct-17 --- 1,763
Jan-18 --- 1,754
Apr-18 --- 1,754
Jul-18 --- 4,677


Thank you Spec! Also the total pending inventory is at 29000 in July’s inventory.
It was maintained at 100k in every pending inventory list except the last two.
Do you think they will move the dates to catch up with the inventory ?
I see only approx 54000 EB3 I-140’s filed till 2018. The inventory for EB3 is at 2000.
Should we expect a huge move ?

[Moveon]

Hi All,
My company had filed my 495 as an Individual Contributor back in 2009 and I got my EAD in 2012 . If I change my role to an engineering Manager at my current or future employer will that have any issues with the GC. My lawyer tells me that there are absolutely no issues as long I don't move to finance or sales . He said that moving from an IC to an engineering manager with an EAD is permitted. Has anyone done that ?

[canada]

The demand inventory in EB2-I between March 2009 to August 2009 is ~5800. EB2I should get a minimum of 2800 green cards a year. You do the math. You are looking at approx 2020 September.

I really appreciate you answering my question

I guess I have to go into hibernation for the next couple of years as it’s no point in keeping a hope on the visa bulletin in 2019.

[Moveon]

Hi All,
My company had filed my 495 as an Individual Contributor back in 2009 and I got my EAD in 2012 . If I change my role to an engineering Manager at my current or future employer will that have any issues with the GC. My lawyer tells me that there are absolutely no issues as long I don't move to finance or sales . He said that moving from an IC to an engineering manager with an EAD is permitted. Has anyone done that ?

[iatiam]

I really appreciate you answering my question

I guess I have to go into hibernation for the next couple of years as it’s no point in keeping a hope on the visa bulletin in 2019.

You can take some credit for potential spillover next year and perhaps a slowdown in economy and immigration crackdown. Some might say there might be reverse porting but realistically it will prevent porting and the inventory from bloating further. I believe the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year.

Iatiam

[canada]

You can take some credit for potential spillover next year and perhaps a slowdown in economy and immigration crackdown. Some might say there might be reverse porting but realistically it will prevent porting and the inventory from bloating further. I believe the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year.

Iatiam

When you say the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year for 2009 what exactly do you mean? Can you please explain in simple words. Thanks

[AceMan]

When you say the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year for 2009 what exactly do you mean? Can you please explain in simple words. Thanks

I think, he is expecting both EB2 and 3 I to hit January 2010 by the end of FY 19. A tall order in my opinion. Eb2 already has close to 10 K numbers already with AOS. Lot of EB3 people from 2007 still waiting for GC, not discounting the fact a handful of 2008 early filers getting their GC. If the forward movement does not happen in the January bulletin, we can categorically say we will be in mid 2009's for both category to be around mid 2009 instead of end 2009.

[canada]

I think, he is expecting both EB2 and 3 I to hit January 2010 by the end of FY 19. A tall order in my opinion. Eb2 already has close to 10 K numbers already with AOS. Lot of EB3 people from 2007 still waiting for GC, not discounting the fact a handful of 2008 early filers getting their GC. If the forward movement does not happen in the January bulletin, we can categorically say we will be in mid 2009's for both category to be around mid 2009 instead of end 2009.


Thanks for clarifying Aceman. Rocketfest earlier quoted there are 5800 applications waiting between March-August 2009. When you mentioned 10000 EB2- with AOS- are you talking for the applications from March 2009-December 2009?

So, even if there is no downgrading or spillover from other categories can I safely expect that I will be current in September 2020, rather than relying on the mercy of any category or my bad luck!!!!

I didn’t file AOS in 2012 and here I am still on H1B and hence getting impatient

[AceMan]

Thanks for clarifying Aceman. Rocketfest earlier quoted there are 5800 applications waiting between March-August 2009. When you mentioned 10000 EB2- with AOS- are you talking for the applications from March 2009-December 2009?

So, even if there is no downgrading or spillover from other categories can I safely expect that I will be current in September 2020, rather than relying on the mercy of any category or my bad luck!!!!

I didn’t file AOS in 2012 and here I am still on H1B and hence getting impatient

My scene was lack of understanding of the numbers and porting back in 2009 when I started the process. When the company started my gc process in 2009, they offered Eb3 as the position was advertised as 3 years and did not require masters. I stonewalled for a while before I talked to a sensible friend who asked me to get in the queue after around 6 months. By the time I started again, we had the Obama mandate of no Gc for 6 months if companies had layoffs of USC. So instead of a sep 2009 Pd, I got a feb 2011 pd. Water under the bridge. But still no harm In cribbing

10000 is aos for 2009 in Eb2 i pending

[iatiam]

When you say the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year for 2009 what exactly do you mean? Can you please explain in simple words. Thanks

I meant EB2 inventory till end of 2009 will be exhausted. July 2018 inventory shows about 9,500 pending applications from April 2009 to December 2009 and there will be a lot more people who have not been able to file for AoS. My assumption is that these people would chose to file in EB3 given it's movement thus keeping the inventory from increasing. Spec's tables point out historically high PERM approval rates. At some point this should come down and the immigration enforcement and potential for a recession next year should hopefully give enough spillover to clear those cases. Also note that May and June 2009 has comparatively high inventory rates and after that the 2009 recession reduced the PERM rates. So once we get over the May-June bump the dates will move faster.

I can't make educated guesses about EB3 until an inventory is released.

Iatiam

[canada]

I meant EB2 inventory till end of 2009 will be exhausted. July 2018 inventory shows about 9,500 pending applications from April 2009 to December 2009 and there will be a lot more people who have not been able to file for AoS. My assumption is that these people would chose to file in EB3 given it's movement thus keeping the inventory from increasing. Spec's tables point out historically high PERM approval rates. At some point this should come down and the immigration enforcement and potential for a recession next year should hopefully give enough spillover to clear those cases. Also note that May and June 2009 has comparatively high inventory rates and after that the 2009 recession reduced the PERM rates. So once we get over the May-June bump the dates will move faster.

I can't make educated guesses about EB3 until an inventory is released.

Iatiam


This seems so complicated - the more I understand.

[canada]

My scene was lack of understanding of the numbers and porting back in 2009 when I started the process. When the company started my gc process in 2009, they offered Eb3 as the position was advertised as 3 years and did not require masters. I stonewalled for a while before I talked to a sensible friend who asked me to get in the queue after around 6 months. By the time I started again, we had the Obama mandate of no Gc for 6 months if companies had layoffs of USC. So instead of a sep 2009 Pd, I got a feb 2011 pd. Water under the bridge. But still no harm In cribbing

10000 is aos for 2009 in Eb2 i pending

My grudge is my employer’s attorney never informed that there is premium processing for filing I-140 petition- so I should have been in January 2009 if I knew the wait is this long- I would have happily spent the fee for PP. now I am in September 2009

[AceMan]

I meant EB2 inventory till end of 2009 will be exhausted. July 2018 inventory shows about 9,500 pending applications from April 2009 to December 2009 and there will be a lot more people who have not been able to file for AoS. My assumption is that these people would chose to file in EB3 given it's movement thus keeping the inventory from increasing. Spec's tables point out historically high PERM approval rates. At some point this should come down and the immigration enforcement and potential for a recession next year should hopefully give enough spillover to clear those cases. Also note that May and June 2009 has comparatively high inventory rates and after that the 2009 recession reduced the PERM rates. So once we get over the May-June bump the dates will move faster.

I can't make educated guesses about EB3 until an inventory is released.

Iatiam

For EB2 I to clear the 9500 numbers, it needs a horizontal spill of 7000 from EB2-ROW as we are going to get nothing vertical looking at the demand for EB1. You will also have to factor in filers from May 2009 - August 2009 who got Eb2 petition who missed the 2012 AOS bus, and not willing/unable to do the EB3 downgrade route.

EB3 I only clue we have is 55 K primaries with approved I-140 till early 2018 from 2007, with no information of this yearly splits this number is rendered useless.

[AceMan]

My grudge is my employer’s attorney never informed that there is premium processing for filing I-140 petition- so I should have been in January 2009 if I knew the wait is this long- I would have happily spent the fee for PP. now I am in September 2009

Hold on, is it date of filing considered as your PD? My -140 was approved in August or September 2011, but the date on the top is Feb 21, 2011

[texas_]

For EB2 I to clear the 9500 numbers, it needs a horizontal spill of 7000 from EB2-ROW as we are going to get nothing vertical looking at the demand for EB1. You will also have to factor in filers from May 2009 - August 2009 who got Eb2 petition who missed the 2012 AOS bus, and not willing/unable to do the EB3 downgrade route.

EB3 I only clue we have is 55 K primaries with approved I-140 till early 2018 from 2007, with no information of this yearly splits this number is rendered useless.

Simply divide it by number of years would give you a ball park numbers

[march1612]

I think, he is expecting both EB2 and 3 I to hit January 2010 by the end of FY 19. A tall order in my opinion. Eb2 already has close to 10 K numbers already with AOS. Lot of EB3 people from 2007 still waiting for GC, not discounting the fact a handful of 2008 early filers getting their GC. If the forward movement does not happen in the January bulletin, we can categorically say we will be in mid 2009's for both category to be around mid 2009 instead of end 2009.

Can we expect an increase in EB2-I 2009 inventory with USCIS considering to use Filing dates?

[excalibur123]

Can we expect an increase in EB2-I 2009 inventory with USCIS considering to use Filing dates?

Yes the inventory would go up - People who failed to file AOS and who now have new dependents to file for.

Also Apr & May EB3 to EB2 porters who could not do AOS yet may choose EB2.

[AceMan]

Simply divide it by number of years would give you a ball park numbers


It would give a grossly inaccurate number, reason being the EB3 filing from 2012 -2017 literally would be less. And again those are primaries only, with a calculation of dependents provided below.

Also this list got the people who upgraded to EB2 earlier with 2008 PD as they would have dropped off, but still showing up in EB3 - inventory.

That might be my reasoning/excuse why EB3 I did not move forward after 1 Jan 2009. My next hope is January bulletin. I am seeing April/May 2018 filers getting interviews and few are getting greened too.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Hold on, is it date of filing considered as your PD? My -140 was approved in August or September 2011, but the date on the top is Feb 21, 2011

Your priority date is your PERM approval date, nothing to do with your I-140 approval time.

[shekhar_kuruk]

I think, he is expecting both EB2 and 3 I to hit January 2010 by the end of FY 19. A tall order in my opinion. Eb2 already has close to 10 K numbers already with AOS. Lot of EB3 people from 2007 still waiting for GC, not discounting the fact a handful of 2008 early filers getting their GC. If the forward movement does not happen in the January bulletin, we can categorically say we will be in mid 2009's for both category to be around mid 2009 instead of end 2009.

Agreed. I would say realistically it may only hit June-July 2009. I would be lucky to get greened this year, but again we may only see approvals till May 15th 2009.

[march1612]

Yes the inventory would go up - People who failed to file AOS and who now have new dependents to file for.

Also Apr & May EB3 to EB2 porters who could not do AOS yet may choose EB2.

How much would that Inventory be? Another 5000?

Also, did you mean porters from EB3 to EB2 would choose EB3?

[bikenlalan]

Your priority date is your PERM approval date, nothing to do with your I-140 approval time.

The priority date is the day your PERM is filed and not your PERM approval date.

[iatiam]

Agreed. I would say realistically it may only hit June-July 2009. I would be lucky to get greened this year, but again we may only see approvals till May 15th 2009.

Till May 15th there are about 1,500 cases. You can chose to be pessimistic but don't be more pessimistic than the worst case scenario.

Iatiam

[iatiam]

Increase in EB2 inventory will be limited by EB3 movement. Why would someone choose EB2 knowing very well that EB3 will move forward.

[canada]

Hold on, is it date of filing considered as your PD? My -140 was approved in August or September 2011, but the date on the top is Feb 21, 2011

My date of filing was January 2009 but my priority date is August 2009

It even mentioned on the top row- Priority date in bold letters-August 2009

[delguy]

My date of filing was January 2009 but my priority date is August 2009

It even mentioned on the top row- Priority date in bold letters-August 2009

PD is determined by your PERM filing date and has nothing to do with I-140. Seems the I-140 adjudicating officer made a mistake that your attorney should have caught and asked uscis for correction.

[dhakaldoo]

My date of filing was January 2009 but my priority date is August 2009

It even mentioned on the top row- Priority date in bold letters-August 2009


The Priority date is the day your Labor is filed. Not the day your i-140 is approved. It has got nothing to do with premium processing.
First your Perm is approved and then you can file for i-140.

It only affects you if your dates are current and you miss the boat for filing i485 since your i140 was not approved.

[canada]

I have receipt notice, priority date and notice date on my immigration approval notice.

[excalibur123]

How much would that Inventory be? Another 5000?

Also, did you mean porters from EB3 to EB2 would choose EB3?

Not that many - I would say about 1.5K.

[excalibur123]

Increase in EB2 inventory will be limited by EB3 movement. Why would someone choose EB2 knowing very well that EB3 will move forward.

If they have difficulties or other reasons to be unable to go back to EB3 employer.

[GCEB420]

I think you should rather be asking why it went down to 1.7k for several reports, since that was non-nonsensical.

Here's the history of EB2-I 2010 since October 2014:

Oct-14 --- 4,811
Jan-15 --- 4,801
Apr-15 --- 4,779
Jul-15 --- 4,769
Oct-15 --- 4,768
Jan-16 --- 4,761
Apr-16 --- 4,728
Oct-16 --- 4,787
Jan-17 --- 4,748
Apr-17 --- 1,770
Aug-17 --- 4,725
Oct-17 --- 1,763
Jan-18 --- 1,754
Apr-18 --- 1,754
Jul-18 --- 4,677


thank you Spec!! with 55,000 eb3 I-140's. Do you expect EB-3 India to jump years?

[GCEB420]

thank you Spec!! with 55,000 eb3 I-140's. Do you expect EB-3 India to jump years?

Also the total inventory is listed at 29,000. Do you think that is right ?

[march1612]

thank you Spec!! with 55,000 eb3 I-140's. Do you expect EB-3 India to jump years?

This is really good data from Spec. Is there a way we could get the numbers broken by Priority dates?

[GCEB420]

This is really good data from Spec. Is there a way we could get the numbers broken by Priority dates?

I'm talking about the below published number.

1396

[texas_]

I'm talking about the below published number.

1396

When eb3 moves eb 2 India would also push fwd but not significantly

[march1612]

I'm talking about the below published number.

1396

EB2-I would also contain those who have I 140 approved both in EB2 and EB3.

Also, EB3-India numbers does not seems to right unless everyone has applied in EB2-I. If the EB3 numbers are true then EB3-India is up for a big leap.

[AceMan]

The priority date is the day your PERM is filed and not your PERM approval date.

Yes you are correct. I recall, I was told that my Perm was approved in about 3 weeks. Attorney was commenting it was fast. 140 was filed next month got an RFE in June, Rfer July end and the petition was approved within a week of response.