EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Nov2010]

Hello,

Latest 485 inventory shows there are more than 7K pending applications with PD < 15/Mar/2009. Primarily the ones prior to 2009.
Any reason why the inventory is still showing these applications? Since the Final action date has been in 2009 for few months my understanding is anything prior to 2009 should be cleared.

Additional question, with lot of scrutiny/queries around H1 extensions and new filings impacting ROWC do we see any additional spill overs to EB2-I/EB3-I

Thanks again for our contribution.

[Jagan01]

Since the Final action date has been in 2009 for few monthsFinal action dates reached 2009 just last week. Before that it was always in 2008.

[Nov2010]

Final action dates reached 2009 just last week. Before that it was always in 2008.

My general question is "one would expect most of 2008 and prior cases to be cleared" and pending to be in few hundreds due to administrative issues, but April inventory shows there are 6K cases pending..

[Jagan01]

Does anyone have any inputs on the I485 Supp J ?

Who needs to file it ? Does everyone need to file it ? I am current from July 1, 2018 and would hate to figure out later that it was mandatory to file I485 J ?

[shekhar_kuruk]

Does anyone have any inputs on the I485 Supp J ?

Who needs to file it ? Does everyone need to file it ? I am current from July 1, 2018 and would hate to figure out later that it was mandatory to file I485 J ?

Should not be required unless you got a RFE for additional evidence (current employment status). Did you get a RFE for medicals though? That would be worrisome since you are current. Let us know. Good luck.

[almost]

Hi Jagan,
If you are filing 485 for the first time then it certainly looks like it is mandatory. See language from USCI website below:

QUOTE
Use Supplement J to:
•Confirm that the job offered to you in Form I-140, Petition for Alien Worker, remains a bona fide job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I 485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, is approved. Beginning Jan. 17, 2017, if you are filing or have previously filed Form I-485 based on being the principal beneficiary of a valid Form I-140 in an employment-based immigrant visa category that requires a job offer, you will need to file Supplement J instead of submitting a job offer letter;

OR
•Request job portability under INA section 204(j) to a new, full-time, permanent job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I-485 is approved. This new job offer must be in the same or a similar occupational classification as the job offered to you in the Form I-140 that is the basis of your Form I-485. (For more information about how USCIS determines which jobs are same or similar please see PM-602-0122: Determining Whether a New Job is in “the Same or a Similar Occupational Classification” for Purposes of Section 204(j) Job Portability (PDF, 205 KB) (March 18, 2016) (PDF, 205 KB)
END QUOTE
Link - https://www.uscis.gov/i-485supj

If you already have submitted a 485 previously then I am myself struggling to decide on an RFE which is only asking for medicals and from language above it seems like we have to file it regardless. My attorney (Murthy) insists that we file it as my original AC21 was filed with a job offer letter. My reasoning for not filing is "If I don't have to then I don't want to give them anything extra which can theoretically lead to additional RFE's as new information is now available" and my priority date is 1st may 2009 so I do expect that to be current in a few months at the latest. I raised this earlier but everyone who responded was of the view that I shouldn't. What does your attorney say?

Appreciate if anyone who has been through the similar situation respond.

[canada]

Hi everyone,

My wife is in Canada ( we have PR) for H4 Visa interview in Montreal on July 23. She has my photocopy of I-797 approval notice and photocopy of our marriage certificate. Is it a must that original documents must be provided?

Thanks

[Prabhas]

Hi everyone,

My wife is in Canada ( we have PR) for H4 Visa interview in Montreal on July 23. She has my photocopy of I-797 approval notice and photocopy of our marriage certificate. Is it a must that original documents must be provided?

Thanks

Hi,

A photocopy of your fresh I797 should be good. Ideally it is recommended to your original marriage certificate but don’t worry too much about it. You could support the marriage certificate with additional other certificates like your name on her passport, joint filing taxes etc. these serve as supporting documents but it’s really rare they ask for a marriage certificate. Overall you should be fine. Good luck!

[canada]

Hi,

A photocopy of your fresh I797 should be good. Ideally it is recommended to your original marriage certificate but don’t worry too much about it. You could support the marriage certificate with additional other certificates like your name on her passport, joint filing taxes etc. these serve as supporting documents but it’s really rare they ask for a marriage certificate. Overall you should be fine. Good luck!

Thank you Prabhas.

[iatiam]

How many here are getting RFEs beyond March 2009? It's just been 11 days in July and Trackitt already has plenty of people in March who got CPO status update. I am trying to understand the potential for EB2I movement for August and September. My theory is that EB2I is in a once-in-a-lifetime position to receive significant SO, just want some data to backup the claim.

Regards

Iatiam

[almost]

How many here are getting RFEs beyond March 2009? It's just been 11 days in July and Trackitt already has plenty of people in March who got CPO status update. I am trying to understand the potential for EB2I movement for August and September. My theory is that EB2I is in a once-in-a-lifetime position to receive significant SO, just want some data to backup the claim.

Regards

Iatiam

I got it ~10 days ago with PD May 1st 2009.

[iatiam]

I got it ~10 days ago with PD May 1st 2009.

That's great. There does seem to be a potential for EB2I movement. Fingers crossed.

Iatiam

[rainmaker12]

List of trackitt users who reported they got an RFE with PD beyond March 15 2009.



Trackitt username

PD

Center


GCBinaMusafir
5-Apr-2009
Texas


shitalb123
9-Apr-2009
?


Eb2apr09
9-Apr-2009
Nebraska


gcapril2009
13-Apr-2009
Texas


tckannan15
15-Apr-2009
?


Desi_in_line
18-Apr-2009
Texas


GetGreenedSoon
23-Apr-2009
Texas


godisthere
27-Apr-2009
Texas


mbalotia
29-Apr-2009
Texas


gc4raj
30-Apr-2009
Texas


Jhakaasbhidu
?-May-2009
?


krgreencard
5-May-2009
Texas


gcinlinetx
6-May-2009
?


quagmire
8-May-2009
Texas


vijchid
13-May-2009
Texas


zenmaster
24-May-2009
Texas


sk1000
25-May-2009
Texas


gdv_ram
27-May-2009
Texas


vhk2009
29-May-2009
Texas


SecondInning
16-Jun-2009
Nebraska


kpmtan01
15-Sep-2009
Nebraska


getsaby
19-Oct-2009
Nebraska


nscca
29-Oct-2009
Nebraska


lakers2018
30-Oct-2009
Nebraska


skotha82
10-Nov-2009
Nebraska


HYD2WAS
21-Dec-2009
Nebraska


Vanczosyn
29-Dec-2009
Nebraska

[skpanda]

I got it ~10 days ago with PD May 1st 2009.

Significant SO is a relative phrase. Back in 2011/12 EB2I got some 30K SOFAD. That was once in a life time opportunity. I do not think we will ever be able to beat that.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Significant SO is a relative phrase. Back in 2011/12 EB2I got some 30K SOFAD. That was once in a life time opportunity. I do not think we will ever be able to beat that.

I agree, but still the signs are that CO is gonna divert the EB3 SO to EB2, instead of FA to EB1. It could be around 3-4K, but even that is significant for May2009 folks as most of them have received 2 or 3 RFE's so far over the past 3 yrs and it is their final chance to get out of the stagnation before EB3I catches up with them and then it will be a China situation.

[bloddy1]

I agree, but still the signs are that CO is gonna divert the EB3 SO to EB2, instead of FA to EB1. It could be around 3-4K, but even that is significant for May2009 folks as most of them have received 2 or 3 RFE's so far over the past 3 yrs and it is their final chance to get out of the stagnation before EB3I catches up with them and then it will be a China situation.


Wait a sec.. The comments diverge from the general commentary. Last bulletin there seems to be an indication for date stagnation and subscribers of this thread have repeatedly described, RFE's for people on the horizon are a common enough occurrence and that it does not indicate necessarily a date movement for EB2I or 3I.

What data or event that has triggered some optimism on this front? Also, why would EB3I be in any better situation than the EB2I, just general inventory seems to be similar across both though.

Thansk

[rainmaker12]

How many here are getting RFEs beyond March 2009? It's just been 11 days in July and Trackitt already has plenty of people in March who got CPO status update. I am trying to understand the potential for EB2I movement for August and September. My theory is that EB2I is in a once-in-a-lifetime position to receive significant SO, just want some data to backup the claim.

Regards

Iatiam

Trackitt username PD Center
GCBinaMusafir 5-Apr-2009 Texas
shitalb123 9-Apr-2009 ?
Eb2apr09 9-Apr-2009 Nebraska
gcapril2009 13-Apr-2009 Texas
tckannan15 15-Apr-2009 ?
Desi_in_line 18-Apr-2009 Texas
GetGreenedSoon 23-Apr-2009 Texas
godisthere 27-Apr-2009 Texas
mbalotia 29-Apr-2009 Texas
gc4raj 30-Apr-2009 Texas
Jhakaasbhidu ?-May-2009 ?
enthuaviator 1-May-2009 Nebraska
krgreencard 5-May-2009 Texas
gcinlinetx 6-May-2009 ?
quagmire 8-May-2009 Texas
keka4green 11-May-2009 Nebraska
vijchid 13-May-2009 Texas
zenmaster 24-May-2009 Texas
sk1000 25-May-2009 Texas
gdv_ram 27-May-2009 Texas
vhk2009 29-May-2009 Texas
SecondInning 16-Jun-2009 Nebraska
kpmtan01 15-Sep-2009 Nebraska
getsaby 19-Oct-2009 Nebraska
nscca 29-Oct-2009 Nebraska
lakers2018 30-Oct-2009 Nebraska
skotha82 10-Nov-2009 Nebraska
pvttk 15-Dec-2009 Nebraska
HYD2WAS 21-Dec-2009 Nebraska
Vanczosyn 29-Dec-2009 Nebraska

[march1612]

its purely waste of someone's time and money when rfe is issued based on hypothetical movement of priority dates.

[suninphx]

its purely waste of someone's time and money when rfe is issued based on hypothetical movement of priority dates.

One of my friend has Nov 09 PD and he got RFE email today.

[srimurthy]

The bulletin is out
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-august-2018.html

and no changes in EB2 dates for Final Action and EB3 moved to 01Jan09.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Looks like EB3I may very well surpass EB2I in the next VB itself.

[Spectator]

As CO forecast, EB1-WW has retrogressed (to 01MAY16).

What's slightly interesting in the explanatory notes: (my highlighting)


WORLDWIDE, EL SALVADOR, GUATEMALA, HONDURAS, MEXICO, AND PHILIPPINES EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIRST (E1) PREFERENCE: As readers were advised in item F of the July Visa Bulletin, there continues to be an extremely high rate of demand for E1 numbers, primarily for USCIS adjustment of status applicants. Therefore, pursuant to the Immigration and Nationality Act, it has been necessary to impose an E1 Final Action Date for the month of August, with this date being imposed immediately. This action will allow the Department to hold worldwide number use within the maximum allowed under the FY-2018 annual limits.

is that the FAD Cut Off Date is being imposed immediately. This is not the normal language used when retrogression is imposed.

My take is that USCIS will continue to accept new applications under the July FAD, but that no new approvals for cases with a PD of May 01, 2016 or later will be made from today, for those Countries affected.

We can probably conclude that total EB1 approvals are already reasonably close to the overall allocation limit. It also probably says that CO did not retrogress EB1 China and India quite early enough.

[suninphx]

As CO forecast, EB1-WW has retrogressed (to 01MAY16).

What's slightly interesting in the explanatory notes: (my highlighting)



is that the FAD Cut Off Date is being imposed immediately. This is not the normal language used when retrogression is imposed.

My take is that USCIS will continue to accept new applications under the July FAD, but that no new approvals for cases with a PD of May 01, 2016 or later will be made from today, for those Countries affected.

We can probably conclude that total EB1 approvals are already reasonably close to the overall allocation limit. It also probably says that CO did not retrogress EB1 China and India quite early enough.

Does this mean power point slide showing visas flowing from EB3-.EB1 was incorrect?

[march1612]

As CO forecast, EB1-WW has retrogressed (to 01MAY16).

What's slightly interesting in the explanatory notes: (my highlighting)



is that the FAD Cut Off Date is being imposed immediately. This is not the normal language used when retrogression is imposed.

My take is that USCIS will continue to accept new applications under the July FAD, but that no new approvals for cases with a PD of May 01, 2016 or later will be made from today, for those Countries affected.

We can probably conclude that total EB1 approvals are already reasonably close to the overall allocation limit. It also probably says that CO did not retrogress EB1 China and India quite early enough.

This tell us that there are no Vertical SO left for FY-2018. Curious to know what will happend to SO left in EB3 ? Is there high demand for EB3-C which is consuming all the horizontal SO in that category?

[rocketfast]

This tell us that there are no Vertical SO left for FY-2018. Curious to know what will happend to SO left in EB3 ? Is there high demand for EB3-C which is consuming all the horizontal SO in that category?

This is something I had not thought about before at all. It is very possible that the interview mandate is helping EB3-C too.

On a related note, do we have any hints on the number of EB3-I from 2007 Aug - 2009 December? And also, the number of EB3-I in 2009?

With EB2-I and EB3-I both coming to 2009, I guess calculations will be easy going forward :) Just add 5600 a year and you get your predictions :)

Is it also time to stop cribbing about EB1-C? Or are they going to go current again next year?

[Spectator]

I've updated all the figures in the PERM section of FACTS & DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) with the FY2018 Q3 data.

[YTeleven]

My take on VB:
I guess there are NO more visas left for EB1-India & EB2-India for FY18. Also EB2-India can get retrogressed back anytime.
Only hope for any SO left is for EB3-India.
For all EB2-India (2009 & 2010): be prepare for downgrades and grab your GC from EB3-I quota in next 1 year.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58931#post58931

looks to me EB3-India PDs will advance faster than predicted in the above link.

[AceMan]

This tell us that there are no Vertical SO left for FY-2018. Curious to know what will happend to SO left in EB3 ? Is there high demand for EB3-C which is consuming all the horizontal SO in that category?

It is very difficult for EB3 I to clear 2007 PD itself this FY.

The absolute nonsense of no movement in the first quarter by DOS and no consideration of Filing date by USCIS literally blew out our best possible year. Yes, the dates moved more than 2 years, but number of GC issued is expected to be way less.

[AceMan]

My take on VB:
I guess there are NO more visas left for EB1-India & EB2-India for FY18. Also EB2-India can get retrogressed back anytime.
Only hope for any SO left is for EB3-India.
For all EB2-India (2009 & 2010): be prepare for downgrades and grab your GC from EB3-I quota in next 1 year.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58931#post58931

looks to me EB3-India PDs will advance faster than predicted in the above link.

I don't think 2009-10 EB2 people struggle compared to people from 2011 onwards in EB2. There is still hope for EB2 I 2009 because we have one more month in this FY and lot of RFE's being reported.

EB3 I already had a 2 year movement. However where are the GC's to show? If the demand is not there, then it can move faster. However if you look at the pattern that happened for FY 18, the chances for it retrogressing is also high.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

My take on VB:
I guess there are NO more visas left for EB1-India & EB2-India for FY18. Also EB2-India can get retrogressed back anytime.
Only hope for any SO left is for EB3-India.
For all EB2-India (2009 & 2010): be prepare for downgrades and grab your GC from EB3-I quota in next 1 year.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58931#post58931

looks to me EB3-India PDs will advance faster than predicted in the above link.

This has been 2 years late due to the ineptitude shown by CO. If he had managed the Dates judiciously, this would have happened 2 years ago! Your famous chart would have come true!!

[march1612]

Could this be a reality in 1year from now?

EB2-I May 2010
EB3-I Dec 2010

Assumption: Less porting from EB3 to EB2, No change in spill over rules, no immigration bills and added contentious immigration issues we see today

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Could this be a reality in 1year from now?

EB2-I May 2010
EB3-I Dec 2010

Assumption: Less porting from EB3 to EB2, No change in spill over rules, no immigration bills and added contentious immigration issues we see today

I would say

EB2-I Dec 2009
EB3-I Mar 2010

[imdeng]

Could this be a reality in 1year from now?

EB2-I May 2010
EB3-I Dec 2010

Assumption: Less porting from EB3 to EB2, No change in spill over rules, no immigration bills and added contentious immigration issues we see today

EB3I makes sense - it's possible. EB2I though is not finishing 2009 for next two years. In one year we may reach Aug-Sept 2009. EB2I is going to be straight 2.8K a year - so about 3 months a year - plus whatever downgrades that will start once EB3I zooms ahead.

[kb2013]

< >

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I think CO is moving EB3I randomly, without knowing the exact numbers of EB3I Perms outstanding. He might as well push it to be equal with EB2I at one go and get done with it!

[dec2010]

Hi - i have a question re downgrade. my priority Date is EB2 - 1 Dec 2010.

In order to downgrade ( with same Employer ), do i have to refile perm or just refile 140/485 with supp j when PD becomes current for EB3 ?

i read an article re what EB2 C folks did back in 2013/4 and cant find that link anymore but that made me believe that there was a path to downgrade without having to redo perm. pls comment. thanks

ps i am trying to understand this so as to ask appropriate questions to fragomen.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Hi - i have a question re downgrade. my priority Date is EB2 - 1 Dec 2010.

In order to downgrade ( with same Employer ), do i have to refile perm or just refile 140/485 with supp j when PD becomes current for EB3 ?

i read an article re what EB2 C folks did back in 2013/4 and cant find that link anymore but that made me believe that there was a path to downgrade without having to redo perm. pls comment. thanks

ps i am trying to understand this so as to ask appropriate questions to fragomen.

This question is more appropriate 1 year from now. Till then, I don't see anything happening that would make someone with your PD downgrade.

[EB3Iwaiting]

I think CO is moving EB3I randomly, without knowing the exact numbers of EB3I Perms outstanding. He might as well push it to be equal with EB2I at one go and get done with it!

That will probably be the case in the next VB! Then, in the next FY, EB3I zooms ahead.

I also completely agree that YT's chart would have come true if not for CO's ineptitude. Too many visas were taken away from EB3 and given to other categories. I held on to YT's chart for a long time and did not upgrade. But seeing all the misallocations, I finally did and my PD is current from July VB. But looks like my PD may be current in September VB too in EB3I.

Either way, EB3Is deserved this at least 2 years ago.

[EB2-03252009]

My take on VB:
I guess there are NO more visas left for EB1-India & EB2-India for FY18. Also EB2-India can get retrogressed back anytime.
Only hope for any SO left is for EB3-India.
For all EB2-India (2009 & 2010): be prepare for downgrades and grab your GC from EB3-I quota in next 1 year.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=58931#post58931

looks to me EB3-India PDs will advance faster than predicted in the above link.

EB2-I retrogression???

[iatiam]

Wonder what impact the strict enforcement of immigration rules is having on PERM approvals and overall SO. Heard stories of RFEs for people who are working for Desi consultants and WITCH companies. That with 485 interview should presumably lower the visa demand. Although I am also seeing cases where people are going back to India after H1B denial and applying in EB1 through CP from India. I guess that's why CP cases are much higher too.

Iatiam

[abcx13]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/visa-and-immigration/trump-admin-arms-immigration-officials-to-outright-reject-h-1b-applications/articleshow/65003979.cms

[march1612]

I've updated all the figures in the PERM section of FACTS & DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) with the FY2018 Q3 data.

Spec,

Thank you

Can you confirm if the numbers listed in the tables are when 485 application of a particular Priority date applied in any FY and pending?

[Jagan01]

EB2-I retrogression???
Yes. They already moved the dates more than necessary. I do not think there is enough SO to clear everyone before Mar 15, 2009. Not sure why CO could not have started advancing dates earlier and advanced one month at a time.

If you notice the pattern of approvals this month then you would find that most of the approvals are coming in for the people in Feb and Mar 2009. This might lead to a situation where many in Dec 2008 and Jan 2009 do not get approved and will provide reason for CO to retrogress dates for EB2I to Nov 2008.

Hopefully, I am proven wrong and there are enough visas to cover everyone before Mar 15, 2009, but right now it does not seem so.

[EB2-03252009]

Yes. They already moved the dates more than necessary. I do not think there is enough SO to clear everyone before Mar 15, 2009. Not sure why CO could not have started advancing dates earlier and advanced one month at a time.

If you notice the pattern of approvals this month then you would find that most of the approvals are coming in for the people in Feb and Mar 2009. This might lead to a situation where many in Dec 2008 and Jan 2009 do not get approved and will provide reason for CO to retrogress dates for EB2I to Nov 2008.

Hopefully, I am proven wrong and there are enough visas to cover everyone before Mar 15, 2009, but right now it does not seem so.

Did you see the trackitt approvals? we still have this FY quota left, only 127 approvals compared to last years 174.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2703-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2018-vs-FY2017-vs-FY2016-vs-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013

[march1612]

Open question, if the dates were suppose to retro, on what basis EB2-I dates were held at March 15,2009 for rest of FY?

1. Is it because CO is expecting to apply SO from EB3 to EB2-India?
2. Is it because CO is expecting to use next years country quota to approve EB2-I applications until March 15,2009?
3. If #1 is not the case, With pretty much every category went to retro, where are the SO applied? if any?

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thank you

Can you confirm if the numbers listed in the tables are when 485 application of a particular Priority date applied in any FY and pending?
The tables have nothing to do with I-485 applications or whether they are pending.

The tables represent the raw data for PERM Certifications. The title for each of the posts clearly states the data relates to PERM.

The columns (FY) are the FY in which the PERM was Certified by OFLC.

The rows are the derived PD from the A-number. Although this is imperfect for individual cases, over 100s of thousands of cases the errors should get smoothed out.

The tables make no assumptions about conversion to I-485 (or even I-140 for that matter). They make no assumptions on whether there are people with more than one PERM, abandonment, whether any subsequent petition or application has since been approved etc.

As stated above, they represent the raw data, which people can, if they wish, use as a starting point for further calculations, or derive trends.

[Jagan01]

Did you see the trackitt approvals? we still have this FY quota left, only 127 approvals compared to last years 174.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2703-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2018-vs-FY2017-vs-FY2016-vs-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013
If you compare the trackitt approvals from last year , which was a total of 174, hen you should anticipate 43 approvals per quarter. In the first three quarters that would translate to 129 approvals and that is what we see. So we do have last quarter worth of annual quota left. This would translate to roughly 700 real world approvals.

the last quarter is July - Sep and the EB2I dates were moved to Mar 15, 2009 in the last quarter. So the additional demand generated will be at least 2583 (Jan 2009 - 1154 / Feb 2009 - 888 / Considering half of Mar 2009 - 541).

As you can see the remaining quota of 700 cannot suffice fore 2583 demand.

There will be some SO available and assuming that the SO is at least 3000 we would barely be able to cover the dates until Mar 15 2009.

[Jagan01]

Open question, if the dates were suppose to retro, on what basis EB2-I dates were held at March 15,2009 for rest of FY?

1. Is it because CO is expecting to apply SO from EB3 to EB2-India?
2. Is it because CO is expecting to use next years country quota to approve EB2-I applications until March 15,2009?
3. If #1 is not the case, With pretty much every category went to retro, where are the SO applied? if any?
IT may be that there is less SO and that SO will be consumed by EB2I and CO has already accounted the fact that some SO (2-3k) will be going to EB2I. So basically the Mar 15, 2009 date has accounted for the SO.

[march1612]

The tables have nothing to do with I-485 applications or whether they are pending.

The tables represent the raw data for PERM Certifications. The title for each of the posts clearly states the data relates to PERM.

The columns (FY) are the FY in which the PERM was Certified by OFLC.

The rows are the derived PD from the A-number. Although this is imperfect for individual cases, over 100s of thousands of cases the errors should get smoothed out.

The tables make no assumptions about conversion to I-485 (or even I-140 for that matter). They make no assumptions on whether there are people with more than one PERM, abandonment, whether any subsequent petition or application has since been approved etc.

As stated above, they represent the raw data, which people can, if they wish, use as a starting point for further calculations, or derive trends.

Thanks Spec.

[march1612]

IT may be that there is less SO and that SO will be consumed by EB2I and CO has already accounted the fact that some SO (2-3k) will be going to EB2I. So basically the Mar 15, 2009 date has accounted for the SO.

If I understand it right, can we safely assume SO is sufficient to approve existing cases which do not need an interview and There are no Visas left for New filers and if new filing demand increases could cause CO to retro the dates in Next VB?

[EB2-03252009]

If you compare the trackitt approvals from last year , which was a total of 174, hen you should anticipate 43 approvals per quarter. In the first three quarters that would translate to 129 approvals and that is what we see. So we do have last quarter worth of annual quota left. This would translate to roughly 700 real world approvals.

the last quarter is July - Sep and the EB2I dates were moved to Mar 15, 2009 in the last quarter. So the additional demand generated will be at least 2583 (Jan 2009 - 1154 / Feb 2009 - 888 / Considering half of Mar 2009 - 541).

As you can see the remaining quota of 700 cannot suffice fore 2583 demand.

There will be some SO available and assuming that the SO is at least 3000 we would barely be able to cover the dates until Mar 15 2009.

This would be true if the latest Pending Inventory is correct. If you consider August 2017 PI then the numbers would be 675+645+340 = 1660, so even if there are 1K SO it will suffice till March 15th 2009.

I personally feel that latest PI is wrong coz in 2008 alone there are 6,658 and if this num was correct dates would have been in 2008 and not 2009.

[Jagan01]

This would be true if the latest Pending Inventory is correct. If you consider August 2017 PI then the numbers would be 675+645+340 = 1660, so even if there are 1K SO it will suffice till March 15th 2009.

I personally feel that latest PI is wrong coz in 2008 alone there are 6,658 and if this num was correct dates would have been in 2008 and not 2009.You are correct that the pending inventory may not be correct. However, I am thinking from a conservative standpoint and hence I consider the worst pending inventory. You also need to account for the fact that some porting might be ongoing and also that some of the candidates might have married and have 2 applications leading to some increase in the pending inventory.

[Jagan01]

If I understand it right, can we safely assume SO is sufficient to approve existing cases which do not need an interview and There are no Visas left for New filers and if new filing demand increases could cause CO to retro the dates in Next VB?I do not think we would see retrogression in Sep VB. September VB is the last VB of the month and if CO feels that there are not enough visas then they can always internally retrogress the dates anytime in September. I think the eb2I dates will stay at Mar 15, 2009 for the rest of the year.

[march1612]

I do not think we would see retrogression in Sep VB. September VB is the last VB of the month and if CO feels that there are not enough visas then they can always internally retrogress the dates anytime in September. I think the eb2I dates will stay at Mar 15, 2009 for the rest of the year.

I hope there is no retro at all...I am good with no movement...

Retro is worst thing that can happen.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

A 3ROW friend of mine got his Interview appointment in less than 6 months after filing AOS. So, all those who have been saying that it is taking 1 yr to schedule interviews are just BS'ng. But bottomline is that 3I folks with PD>July 2007 have no chance of getting approved in this FY. There will definitely be SO in EB3 this year and that should flow to EB1 NOT EB2 as is being fervently hoped and promoted by vested interests. But given the approvals in 2I, it looks like CO is wilfully diverting EB3 SO to 2I!!

[Positive]

There is no law that requires or allows EB3 SO to be applied to EB1. On the other hand porting from EB3 to EB2 has happened in droves and downgrading from EB2 to EB3 is freely allowed. So, maintaining a strict allocation between EB2 and EB3 makes no sense because they anyhow use up each other's visa numbers. So applying EB3 so to EB2 is perfectly rational and justifiable. I have never understood people who actively canvas against their own self interest.

[redsox2009]

Yesterday USCIS released the new Metric's for Q2 2018.

Nothing new that we don't know. 28336 approved 485 and 15194 approved at Service centers,13142 at field office centers.

H1B rejections on other hand went up by 45% when compared with Q2 2017.


https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-form-i-485-application-adjustment-status

[bluelabel]

Despite of extended delays in processing with mandated interviews, USCIS performance seems to be good. USCIS approved 30472 applications in 1st quarter and 28336 in second quarter.

If 20 percent(28000) of available 140000 are approved in consular processing at overseas consulates this year, only 53192 GCs left to be issued in 3rd and 4th quarter which is about 26596 a quarter. So i guess no GC will be wasted because of interview delays.

[Spectator]

Despite of extended delays in processing with mandated interviews, USCIS performance seems to be good. USCIS approved 30472 applications in 1st quarter and 28336 in second quarter.

If 20 percent(28000) of available 140000 are approved in consular processing at overseas consulates this year, only 53192 GCs left to be issued in 3rd and 4th quarter which is about 26596 a quarter. So i guess no GC will be wasted because of interview delays.

bluelabel,

Just to add to your post.

We also know that 16,239 EB Consular processing cases were approved in Q1/Q2.

This brings EB visa use for the first half of the FY to 75,047. This represents 53.6% of the 140,000 total allocation - pretty close to the maximum 54% allowed by law.

There's been another 4,300 Consular approvals in April/May (when EB1-IC was retrogressed), which suggests about 12,900 Consular approvals for the second half of the FY.

That would leave about 52k AOS applications for USCIS to approve (or 26k per quarter).

As you say, this seems well within USCIS ability, even with the new interview mandate and even if the actual number is a bit higher than that.

[march1612]

Despite of extended delays in processing with mandated interviews, USCIS performance seems to be good. USCIS approved 30472 applications in 1st quarter and 28336 in second quarter.

If 20 percent(28000) of available 140000 are approved in consular processing at overseas consulates this year, only 53192 GCs left to be issued in 3rd and 4th quarter which is about 26596 a quarter. So i guess no GC will be wasted because of interview delays.

Could this also be due to relatively low volume of new applications compared to previous years?

[iatiam]

bluelabel,

Just to add to your post.

We also know that 16,239 EB Consular processing cases were approved in Q1/Q2.

This brings EB visa use for the first half of the FY to 75,047. This represents 53.6% of the 140,000 total allocation - pretty close to the maximum 54% allowed by law.

There's been another 4,300 Consular approvals in April/May (when EB1-IC was retrogressed), which suggests about 12,900 Consular approvals for the second half of the FY.

That would leave about 52k AOS applications for USCIS to approve (or 26k per quarter).

As you say, this seems well within USCIS ability, even with the new interview mandate and even if the actual number is a bit higher than that.

This is a worrying trend and shows what is happening in WITCH companies. People whose H1B is denied are going back to India and doing CP in EB1C category. DHS in an effort to curb down fraud came up with the idea of interviews but now we have a double-headed hydra instead of one.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

This is a worrying trend and shows what is happening in WITCH companies. People whose H1B is denied are going back to India and doing CP in EB1C category. DHS in an effort to curb down fraud came up with the idea of interviews but now we have a double-headed hydra instead of one.

Iatiam
The figures don't support that hypothesis.

Of 16,239 CP approvals in Q1/Q2, only 173 were for EB1 India.

Even if they were all EB1C, it's not a large number.

There were more CP approvals for India in EB3 (246) and nearly as many for EB5 (152).

[bluelabel]

bluelabel,

Just to add to your post.

We also know that 16,239 EB Consular processing cases were approved in Q1/Q2.

This brings EB visa use for the first half of the FY to 75,047. This represents 53.6% of the 140,000 total allocation - pretty close to the maximum 54% allowed by law.

There's been another 4,300 Consular approvals in April/May (when EB1-IC was retrogressed), which suggests about 12,900 Consular approvals for the second half of the FY.

That would leave about 52k AOS applications for USCIS to approve (or 26k per quarter).

As you say, this seems well within USCIS ability, even with the new interview mandate and even if the actual number is a bit higher than that.


Spec,

I would like to review what i said again. Out of 30472 I-485s approved in first quarter 25396 are approved at service centers and only 5076 are approved at field offices, in second quarter out of 28336 only 15194 are approved at service centers and 13142 approved at field offices.

Looks like there were several 485s approved that were filed before March 6th 2017 in first half of the FY and only 18218 are approved at field offices after interview. The percentage of applications approved after interview in first half is ~31 and 69 percent of them approved without interview.

Perhaps i may be little overestimating USCIS ability to conduct 100000 plus EB 485 interviews in future. I guess there will be delays in conducting interviews in next FY as well and may have to move EB2I little aggressively at some point of time.

[delguy]

Spec,
Perhaps i may be little overestimating USCIS ability to conduct 100000 plus EB 485 interviews in future. I guess there will be delays in conducting interviews in next FY as well and may have to move EB2I little aggressively at some point of time.

Field offices do pretty big no of interviews every year when you consider family based, citizenship etc. i have read somewhere and I cant recall the source now that fueld offices were told few months back to prioritize EB based interviews over others. So they very well can do 100K interviews if they want to.

[Spectator]

bluelabel,

I share your concern for the future.

It's what happens when nativists like Miller are allowed to dictate policy.

No thought (or maybe it was) was given to the consequences of the decision.

Each Field Office has a maximum bandwidth for the number of interviews that can be carried out.

I don't think hiring more people is really an option - they have to sit somewhere and I don't think the present facilities can't accommodate the increase.

So far, it seems that space for EB interviews has been made at the expense of other immigration benefits that also require an interview. Naturalization processing times have increased by up to 4 times the period they were before the change.

Perhaps it's going to return to how AOS used to be, with 3 to 4 year processing times. If that happens, more people will choose Consular Processing, which will have shorter more predictable processing times.

Or, we could have a regime change .... I don't expect it to get better under the current administration. If they can't pass laws, they seem determined to strangle immigration via policy memos.



Just as an addendum to show the progression through the FY.

Based on Trackitt figures, the % of cases approved After and Before (including March 7, 2017) in the first 3 quarters were:

EB2-ROW

----- After -- Before
Q1 -- 24.3% --- 75.7%
Q2 -- 43.4% --- 56.6%
Q3 -- 79.8% --- 20.2%


EB3-ROW

----- After -- Before
Q1 -- 36.8% --- 63.2%
Q2 -- 69.2% --- 30.8%
Q3 -- 87.3% --- 12.7%

[EB3Iwaiting]

Spec, agree with you on this. The whole purpose of adding AOS interviews is to slow down legal immigration. If people get their GCs delayed, their naturalization and hence, ultimately becoming a citizen is also delayed...which by the way is delayed too because of the interviews. There was a reason why AOS interviews were waived before.

These nativists are scared that whites will soon be a minority in this country. Immigration is this country is dominated by non-white people now. Some in Congress like Cotton and Grassley are desperately trying to cut down the annual GC quota. But since Congress is incompetent and cannot pass a single bill, the administration is doing its best to slow down immigration by policy memos. They keep adding hurdles (2 memos came out last week...no more RFEs, straight denials and NTAs if you fall out of status...so if you leave..you will be barred for 5 years) and others like rescinding H4 EAD.

Trump has been unable to build his wall against illegal immigration but he is already doing it against legal immigration.Yet, somehow our crowds still do rallies supporting this administration and it's policies.

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/homeland-security/397873-trump-builds-his-wall-against-legal-immigrants

But look at the immigration laws passed even by Congress over the years....they have been a series of xenophobic and racist actions attempted to stop people of certain regions from immigrating here. US has a long history of being hostile to a new group of immigrants. But this administration has literally declared war on immigrants.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPn9qZULv7A

[vyruss]

Are the AOS interviews for EB applicants, only for new applications?


bluelabel,

I share your concern for the future.

[/FONT]

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Are the AOS interviews for EB applicants, only for new applications?
Yes and they are being scheduled within 6 months of applying for AOS (not 1 year out as posted by a few vested interests on here)

[msfc_1]

Before the new AOS interview policy, USCIS mainly had to do AOS interviews for categories that did not have an annual cap, such as immediate relatives, asylum, or refugees.
The only cases where AOS interviews required requesting a visa number were FB. The vast majority of FB cases are actual done by CP. In 2016 only 15,116 FB cases out of 238,087 (6.3%) were done by AOS.
I could not find any document showing the the total interview volume for USCIS but we can make some estimates. I will use 2016 since there were very little EB based interviews during that fiscal year.
Family based I-485 (includes FB and IR categories):338k
Citizenship: 972k
Refugee/Asylum (included Cuban Adjustment Act) AOS: 150k
Removal of Conditions: 145k
Total: 1,605,000

So, under the current trend of about 85% of EB cases being done through AOS, this would represent 119,000 cases or an extra 7.4% I will let others conclude whether they think this is something can be accommodated.

[EB2-03252009]

Looks like USCIS lost my spouse's RFE reply.

Received RFE(Myself and Spouse) on May 22nd and attorney replied in separately packages, primary was received by USCIS few days earlier than spouse RFE(USPS messed it up here).

Myself: Medicals, Sup-J (approved on 06/27), Status
Spouse: Medicals.

On July 16th they have again sent RFE for spouse and today we received it.

Resubmission of evidence.
"USCIS issued a request for evidence on May 22,2018, for which USCIS received a response on June 11, 2018. This evidence is not contained in the record. Please resubmit."

Do we need to again redo the medicals or can we submit the one which we took on May 22nd, not sure how much we need to pay to doctor again(even for copies).

[shekhar_kuruk]

Looks like USCIS lost my spouse's RFE reply.

Received RFE(Myself and Spouse) on May 22nd and attorney replied in separately packages, primary was received by USCIS few days earlier than spouse RFE(USPS messed it up here).

Myself: Medicals, Sup-J (approved on 06/27), Status
Spouse: Medicals.

On July 16th they have again sent RFE for spouse and today we received it.

Resubmission of evidence.
"USCIS issued a request for evidence on May 22,2018, for which USCIS received a response on June 11, 2018. This evidence is not contained in the record. Please resubmit."

Do we need to again redo the medicals or can we submit the one which we took on May 22nd, not sure how much we need to pay to doctor again(even for copies).
No need to redo medicals, just tell the doctor that it got lost in transit, he will most probably bill you to fill out the form again. Use fedex or ups this time. Good luck.

[EB2-03252009]

Thanks for the reply. got a copy from the immigration doctor, they charged me $25 and I sent it myself to USCIS instead of attorney as they were charging $250.

[Pundit Arjun]

One of my friend has Nov 09 PD and he got RFE email today.

FYI : Received RFE text notifications for the dependents and me couple days ago. Not sure of the details - I will update you guys once I receive the details in mail.

Agree with you folks that there is nothing to be excited (Gone are those days - after multiple RFEs over years you know that its BS) about till the date becomes current and stays current for few months.

[Jagan01]

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

[qesehmk]

Freedom at last Jagan :)

Many congratulations and thanks for contributing to this forum.

I am sure a celebration is in order. Enjoy!


Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

[jackbrown_890]

Congratulations Jagan.

[Spectator]

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.
Jagan,

Many congratulations.

I suspect it brings some real sense of stability to you.

Spec

[rainmaker12]

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin (http://canteyhanger.com/news/immigration-news/)

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Employment-Based Preference Categories
Further retrogression of the EB-1 Worldwide final action date cannot be ruled out in September, but there will be a recovery of the date in October.

The final action date for EB-1 Worldwide China and EB-1 India will hold at January 1, 2012 in August, and again for September, with the anticipated recovery of visa availability in October. Charlie will continue to watch trends over the summer and is working closely with USCIS to determine applicant demand which will be eligible for processing in October.

EB-4 India Tracks EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in August. As predicted, in August, EB-4 India joins EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico, with a final action date of February 8, 2016, due to an influx of demand in May, June, and early July.EB-4 India will return to current in October.

There is a slim chance of forward movement in EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in September. If that occurs, the date will likely hold for a few months. Charlie is cautious about advancing this category to avoid a subsequent retrogression. The ever-increasing availability of statistical data required for the determination of this date could lead to slightly more regular movements throughout FY 2019, rather than just during the final quarter.

China. EB-2 China advances two months to March 1, 2015 and EB-3 China advances 1.5 years to July 1, 2014 in August. EB-3 China, which had recently retrogressed due to significant downgrade demand, has subsided somewhat, allowing for this forward movement. At this point there has not been a dramatic increase in EB-2 China demand based on movement of that date, which is allowing some of these numbers to fall to EB-3. Charlie cautions against expectations of regular advancement of EB-3 China during FY-2019, as such movements are dependent on the development of future demand patterns.

India. EB-2 India will hold at March 15, 2009 in August and is anticipated to remain there through this fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide demand has picked up sufficiently enough to use the remaining EB-2 numbers which had allowed the India EB-2 date to advance. Although Charlie will review the numbers again later this month, unless there is an unlikely dramatic dip in worldwide demand that would justify advancing EB-2 India further, it will continue to hold.

In our last column we reported that EB-2 Worldwide demand is increasing and might require Charlie to impose a final action date before the end of the fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide will remain current in August. As noted last month, if a final action date is imposed in September, the category will return to current in October.

EB-3 India will advance two months in August to January 1, 2009. The gap in final action dates between EB-2 India (March 15, 2009) and EB-3 India (January 1, 2009) continues to narrow, leaving only 2.5 months between these categories. As to whether he expects these dates will “flip-flop” as they have for China in recent years, Charlie reminds members that he advanced the final action date for EB-3 India to generate demand for visa usage next fiscal year. Once that demand starts to materialize it is likely to slow EB-3 India’s advancement. The possibility of EB-3 India’s final action date advancing beyond that of EB-2 India cannot be ruled out but Charlie is not able to speculate on this at this time.

EB-5. EB-5 China Non-Regional Center and Regional Center will continue to hold at August 1, 2014 in August and is expected to advance one week either in September or in October.

EB-5 Vietnam Non-Regional Center and Regional Center similarly holds at August 1, 2014. Charlie expects this category to advance to a 2016 date in October but cautions that the category it is likely to retrogress again once it hits its annual limit by spring.

[Spectator]

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin (http://canteyhanger.com/news/immigration-news/)
Thanks for the heads up on Charlie's Check-In.

P.S. The June CP figures have been published, but I'll let redsox continue the outstanding work in publishing those in the forum.

[vedu]

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

Congratulations, Jagan01! You are clearing the line for us!!

[suninphx]

Jagan - many congratulations !!

[imdeng]

Jagan - Many Congratulations!!!

It is great to see longstanding members reaching the endzone. Hope the trend continues.

[imdeng]

Interesting development: Lawsuit challenging counting of dependents in the quota numbers for EB-5. According to the thread, if this lawsuit wins then similar case can be made for other EB categories.

https://twitter.com/David_J_Bier/status/1022195437476958208

[skpanda]

Jagan.. congratulations!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin (http://canteyhanger.com/news/immigration-news/)

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

EB-3 India - As to whether he expects these dates will “flip-flop” as they have for China in recent years, Charlie reminds members that he advanced the final action date for EB-3 India to generate demand for visa usage next fiscal year. Once that demand starts to materialize it is likely to slow EB-3 India’s advancement. The possibility of EB-3 India’s final action date advancing beyond that of EB-2 India cannot be ruled out but Charlie is not able to speculate on this at this time.

The pending PERM numbers are very clear. EB3I will move ahead of 2I and stay there as far as the eye can see..

[redsox2009]

I'll let redsox continue the outstanding work in publishing those in the forum.


Did not realize what I signed up for..........................Machine broken, had to get new machine. After seeing your message tried to run my program on new machine, then realized, I did not install Acrobat Professional and Python Pips. Finally did those installs and here is the June data.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
00
04
02
01
20
0
209
236


EB2
10
11
07
37
113
06
105
289



EB3
44
99
15
330
34
13
354
889


EB4
07
28
02
07
14
5
147
210


EB5
570
42
10
02
51
00
185
860


Total
631
184
36
377
232
24
1000
2484

[redsox2009]

Year to date Monthly Family Immigrant Visa Issuance.




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
ROW
Total


Total
9183
12632
21524
11272
105418
160029




YTD Grand Total both EB+FB



China
India
Mexico
Philippines
ROW
Total


Total
14868
13858
21862
15656
119647
183052

[Spectator]

Did not realize what I signed up for..........................Machine broken, had to get new machine. After seeing your message tried to run my program on new machine, then realized, I did not install Acrobat Professional and Python Pips. Finally did those installs and here is the June data.
redsox,

I absolutely sympathize!

I'm on a relatively new machine as well and most of my web based library of immigration related stuff is still on the old machine.

Thanks for the good work.

[almost]

What is the expectation for the EB-2I advancement in the coming months? Anyone?
Is there any chance of the final action dates getting past May 1st anytime soon? What are the best Vs worst case scenarios?
Thanks

[vedu]

What is the expectation for the EB-2I advancement in the coming months? Anyone?
Is there any chance of the final action dates getting past May 1st anytime soon? What are the best Vs worst case scenarios?
Thanks

Current approvals and future RFEs all the way up to December, 2009 are raining heavily. There is definitely something brewing behind the scenes. But I have been disappointed so many times by optimistic projections, so I won't predict anything, just observe!

[iatiam]

The pending PERM numbers are very clear. EB3I will move ahead of 2I and stay there as far as the eye can see..

What PERM numbers are you referring to?

Iatiam

[jackbrown_890]

Current approvals and future RFEs all the way up to December, 2009 are raining heavily. There is definitely something brewing behind the scenes. But I have been disappointed so many times by optimistic projections, so I won't predict anything, just observe!

Based on the trackitt data, it appears that almost all of them are issued by NSC. I don't know what is brewing behind the scenes at NSC. TSC is not issuing anything beyond May 09 PD.

[hope21]

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

Many a congrats, 10 yrs and finally, so happy for you Jagan. Lets hope this trend continues for others, good luck to everyone who is waiting/pending..

[Jagan01]

Many a congrats, 10 yrs and finally, so happy for you Jagan. Lets hope this trend continues for others, good luck to everyone who is waiting/pending..


Jagan.. congratulations!


Jagan - Many Congratulations!!!

It is great to see longstanding members reaching the endzone. Hope the trend continues.


Jagan - many congratulations !!


Congratulations, Jagan01! You are clearing the line for us!!


Jagan,

Many congratulations.

I suspect it brings some real sense of stability to you.

Spec


Congratulations Jagan.


Freedom at last Jagan :)

Many congratulations and thanks for contributing to this forum.

I am sure a celebration is in order. Enjoy!

Thanks everyone for the wishes and good luck to everyone. Will keep visiting the forum every once in a while to see everyone get greened.

[lville]

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin (http://canteyhanger.com/news/immigration-news/)

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Employment-Based Preference Categories
Further retrogression of the EB-1 Worldwide final action date cannot be ruled out in September, but there will be a recovery of the date in October.

The final action date for EB-1 Worldwide China and EB-1 India will hold at January 1, 2012 in August, and again for September, with the anticipated recovery of visa availability in October. Charlie will continue to watch trends over the summer and is working closely with USCIS to determine applicant demand which will be eligible for processing in October.

EB-4 India Tracks EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in August. As predicted, in August, EB-4 India joins EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico, with a final action date of February 8, 2016, due to an influx of demand in May, June, and early July.EB-4 India will return to current in October.

There is a slim chance of forward movement in EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in September. If that occurs, the date will likely hold for a few months. Charlie is cautious about advancing this category to avoid a subsequent retrogression. The ever-increasing availability of statistical data required for the determination of this date could lead to slightly more regular movements throughout FY 2019, rather than just during the final quarter.

China. EB-2 China advances two months to March 1, 2015 and EB-3 China advances 1.5 years to July 1, 2014 in August. EB-3 China, which had recently retrogressed due to significant downgrade demand, has subsided somewhat, allowing for this forward movement. At this point there has not been a dramatic increase in EB-2 China demand based on movement of that date, which is allowing some of these numbers to fall to EB-3. Charlie cautions against expectations of regular advancement of EB-3 China during FY-2019, as such movements are dependent on the development of future demand patterns.

India. EB-2 India will hold at March 15, 2009 in August and is anticipated to remain there through this fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide demand has picked up sufficiently enough to use the remaining EB-2 numbers which had allowed the India EB-2 date to advance. Although Charlie will review the numbers again later this month, unless there is an unlikely dramatic dip in worldwide demand that would justify advancing EB-2 India further, it will continue to hold.

In our last column we reported that EB-2 Worldwide demand is increasing and might require Charlie to impose a final action date before the end of the fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide will remain current in August. As noted last month, if a final action date is imposed in September, the category will return to current in October.

EB-3 India will advance two months in August to January 1, 2009. The gap in final action dates between EB-2 India (March 15, 2009) and EB-3 India (January 1, 2009) continues to narrow, leaving only 2.5 months between these categories. As to whether he expects these dates will “flip-flop” as they have for China in recent years, Charlie reminds members that he advanced the final action date for EB-3 India to generate demand for visa usage next fiscal year. Once that demand starts to materialize it is likely to slow EB-3 India’s advancement. The possibility of EB-3 India’s final action date advancing beyond that of EB-2 India cannot be ruled out but Charlie is not able to speculate on this at this time.

EB-5. EB-5 China Non-Regional Center and Regional Center will continue to hold at August 1, 2014 in August and is expected to advance one week either in September or in October.

EB-5 Vietnam Non-Regional Center and Regional Center similarly holds at August 1, 2014. Charlie expects this category to advance to a 2016 date in October but cautions that the category it is likely to retrogress again once it hits its annual limit by spring.


Why is this data (Info) relevant ? August was published 2 weeks ago. We are looking forward to September bulletin.

[Spectator]

Why is this data (Info) relevant ? August was published 2 weeks ago. We are looking forward to September bulletin.
Because it is CO's comments made AFTER the August VB was published (the article was published 2 days ago).

It may mention some movements made in August, but in general it discusses September and beyond.

I didn't think it was that difficult to comprehend. Obviously I was mistaken.

[lville]

Because it is CO's comments made AFTER the August VB was published (the article was published 2 days ago).

It may mention some movements made in August, but in general it discusses September and beyond.

I didn't think it was that difficult to comprehend. Obviously I was mistaken.

Lol. Thank you.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Some April 2018 EB3I filers are getting Interview Dates already. They have been finger printed and got their EAD Combo cards. So I expect some of them will get approved in this FY itself.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

It drastically reduces the chances of any EB3 Visas from 'falling up' !

[Pundit Arjun]

FYI : Received RFE text notifications for the dependents and me couple days ago. Not sure of the details - I will update you guys once I receive the details in mail.

Agree with you folks that there is nothing to be excited (Gone are those days - after multiple RFEs over years you know that its BS) about till the date becomes current and stays current for few months.

Details include request for - I693, Evidence of lawful entry [i-94], G-325A, Schedule J. Again not amped up since there is no way this could be the last RFE before getting greened --> [Too early to ask these for my PD being the reason]

[gten20]

Congrats Jagan!


Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

[ajay1234]

I have just my PERM labor got approved ( employer change labor , original priority date - June 2010 , ) . Confused filing I-140 in eb2 or eb3 , Appreciate any insights making decision to file I-140 eb2 or eb3 . Thank you much.

[derekjbj]

I have just my PERM labor got approved ( employer change labor , original priority date - June 2010 , ) . Confused filing I-140 in eb2 or eb3 , Appreciate any insights making decision to file I-140 eb2 or eb3 . Thank you much.

I'd say, just wait it out for either EB2 or EB3 to be current for your priority date and just file for i-140 and i-485 concurrently. I suppose u can renew your H1 based on previous company's I-140 for 3 years or current company's PERM for 1 year ( YMMV)

[delguy]

I'd say, just wait it out for either EB2 or EB3 to be current for your priority date and just file for i-140 and i-485 concurrently. I suppose u can renew your H1 based on previous company's I-140 for 3 years or current company's PERM for 1 year ( YMMV)

How could he wait? PERM will expire.

Based on what Specs said earlier you can downgrade to EB3 anytime if you have I-140 in EB2 but not sure if vice versa is possible. Considering the density in EB2 vs EB3, I would opt for EB3. Also in last few years there are horizontal spillovers in EB3 but not in EB2. So EB3 is best bet based on my limited understanding.

[richie.rich]

How could he wait? PERM will expire.

Based on what Specs said earlier you can downgrade to EB3 anytime if you have I-140 in EB2 but not sure if vice versa is possible. Considering the density in EB2 vs EB3, I would opt for EB3. Also in last few years there are horizontal spillovers in EB3 but not in EB2. So EB3 is best bet based on my limited understanding.

TRUE.

An approved labor certification is valid for 180 days following approval. The USCIS will reject any I-140 filings made by employers after the labor certifications have "expired."

[redsox2009]

EB-3 India will advance two months in August to January 1, 2009. The gap in final action dates between EB-2 India (March 15, 2009) and EB-3 India (January 1, 2009) continues to narrow, leaving only 2.5 months between these categories. As to whether he expects these dates will “flip-flop” as they have for China in recent years, Charlie reminds members that he advanced the final action date for EB-3 India to generate demand for visa usage next fiscal year. Once that demand starts to materialize it is likely to slow EB-3 India’s advancement. The possibility of EB-3 India’s final action date advancing beyond that of EB-2 India cannot be ruled out but Charlie is not able to speculate on this at this time.

Based on above CO's statement, I'm guessing EB3 can advance upto Jan 2010. Also all EB2-I applications upto March are getting approved, this is a huge sign for future movement.

[EB2-03252009]

Based on above CO's statement, I'm guessing EB3 can advance upto Jan 2010. Also all EB2-I applications upto March are getting approved, this is a huge sign for future movement.

are you saying that there will be movement for Eb2-I in September bulletin?

[redsox2009]

are you saying that there will be movement for Eb2-I in September bulletin?

It will depends how EB2-ROW approvals are coming in first two weeks of August, if approvals slowed or paused then less movement or else good movement.

[LASHAB]

I'd say, just wait it out for either EB2 or EB3 to be current for your priority date and just file for i-140 and i-485 concurrently. I suppose u can renew your H1 based on previous company's I-140 for 3 years or current company's PERM for 1 year ( YMMV)

Not sure of 2010 dates will be current in next 1 yr for EB2&3I

[imdeng]

I have just my PERM labor got approved ( employer change labor , original priority date - June 2010 , ) . Confused filing I-140 in eb2 or eb3 , Appreciate any insights making decision to file I-140 eb2 or eb3 . Thank you much.

If I were in your shoes, at this moment in time, I would go for EB3. EB3 has much lower density, has horizontal spillover - and is likely to cross EB2I pretty soon.

[tendlya]

Just got a notification saying "Name was updated" for me and my wife. Anyone know what that means?
PD: May 26, 2009
Center: NSC

[Moveon]

I too Got a similar one for my Wife and I .
PD: Dec 2009
Center : NSC.

I had filed an AC-21 in Jan. It probably is the change of lawyer/company from what I understand by Googling. Looks like it took a while to update

[tendlya]

Got notification again after couple of hours of first one and this time it says "Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed". Will have wait for physical RFE to see what is requested.

[Moveon]

Same here .

[EB2-03252009]

looks like no movement in September too

https://www.murthy.com/2018/08/01/august-2018-visa-bulletin-check-in-predictions-for-fy19/

[iatiam]

looks like no movement in September too

https://www.murthy.com/2018/08/01/august-2018-visa-bulletin-check-in-predictions-for-fy19/

It's the same news that was reported like a week ago. Murthy has re-phrased it to increase page views.

Iatiam

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Just got a notification saying "Name was updated" for me and my wife. Anyone know what that means?
PD: May 26, 2009
Center: NSC

If you are current, that would mean you are cleared for approval. But May 2009 EB2I can only pray at this time because it gonna be 6 months before you will see Approval.

[Moveon]

@harepathekaIntezar. My PD is Dec 2009. I am not sure why they are issuing an RFE for dates so far. I am yet to receive the RFE letter , so not sure on what is being asked.

[Blue_Yellow]

@harepathekaIntezar. My PD is Dec 2009. I am not sure why they are issuing an RFE for dates so far. I am yet to receive the RFE letter , so not sure on what is being asked.

Guys why the F*** they are sending the medical (I-693) RFE if they are not going to make the date current beyond 15th March 2009 for EB2I and can not guarantee to make it current with in a year?

This has been happening for the third time for getting this ridiculous RFE.

Doctors are charging $350 per exam ( $350 * Family members) and there is no guarantee to get the green card.

Is there any way to sue Immigration for this kind of nuisance?

[hope21]

If you are current, that would mean you are cleared for approval. But May 2009 EB2I can only pray at this time because it gonna be 6 months before you will see Approval.

I would respectfully disagree. Based on my limited knowledge (my two cents), it only means your file is being worked upon, meaning someone has been assigned (it does not infer anything else), thanks.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I would respectfully disagree. Based on my limited knowledge (my two cents), it only means your file is being worked upon, meaning someone has been assigned (it does not infer anything else), thanks.

Name updated usually means background check has been completed. That happens to be the last hurdle prior to approval. Obviously it means someone is assigned to the file.

[nbk1976]

Name updated usually means background check has been completed. That happens to be the last hurdle prior to approval. Obviously it means someone is assigned to the file.

I have a "name update" and it was a result of changing the law firm that represents me. Nothing more.

[nbk1976]

Guys why the F*** they are sending the medical (I-693) RFE if they are not going to make the date current beyond 15th March 2009 for EB2I and can not guarantee to make it current with in a year?

This has been happening for the third time for getting this ridiculous RFE.

Doctors are charging $350 per exam ( $350 * Family members) and there is no guarantee to get the green card.

Is there any way to sue Immigration for this kind of nuisance?

As unfortunate as it is, there is no course but to reply to the RFE. Have your medicals done during the last week from the due date and have them mailed the day before it is due: that way you maximize the validity of those reports.

[imdeng]

As unfortunate as it is, there is no course but to reply to the RFE. Have your medicals done during the last week from the due date and have them mailed the day before it is due: that way you maximize the validity of those reports.

One should get the medical done as soon as possible. They are valid for one year from the date of report. You can send them to USCIS towards the end of the deadline. The report is valid with USCIS for one full year from the date they receive it.

BTW: I have joined the list of late 2009 EB2I folks who have received an RFE. Got text for self and spouse. No email yet. This will be my third medical - and likely again a futile one.

[lville]

BTW: I have joined the list of late 2009 EB2I folks who have received an RFE. Got text for self and spouse. No email yet. This will be my third medical - and likely again a futile one.[/QUOTE]

My I-140 was just approved couple weeks ago under EB2-I (PD May 22,2009) porting from EB3-I. Where do I sign up to get RFE or other notifications from USCIS ? Thank you in advance.

[hope21]

Name updated usually means background check has been completed. That happens to be the last hurdle prior to approval. Obviously it means someone is assigned to the file.

I have first hand experience, 3 times - first this message was received/observed when someone's case was being adjudicated (it started adjudication), second time when RFE was received by USCIS, third time when attorney was changed. This was my observation/my thoughts/understanding. You must have different thoughts based on your observation, does not mean I am wrong or you are wrong.... peace. Lets not argue more, my last on this topic.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

One should get the medical done as soon as possible. They are valid for one year from the date of report. You can send them to USCIS towards the end of the deadline. The report is valid with USCIS for one full year from the date they receive it.

BTW: I have joined the list of late 2009 EB2I folks who have received an RFE. Got text for self and spouse. No email yet. This will be my third medical - and likely again a futile one.

Hope you are not paying the full Medicals fees..when I went for the 2nd medicals, I just took a copy of the old medicals with me and the doctor charged just $ 125/per head.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

My I-140 was just approved couple weeks ago under EB2-I (PD May 22,2009) porting from EB3-I. Where do I sign up to get RFE or other notifications from USCIS ? Thank you in advance.

You may not have to port at all..I see EB3I moving past EB2I soon. Filing dates are already May 2009 for both, although USCIS is not honoring the dates. But it is always good to have 2 options.

[imdeng]

Hope you are not paying the full Medicals fees..when I went for the 2nd medicals, I just took a copy of the old medicals with me and the doctor charged just $ 125/per head.

I go to Concentra Urgent Care for Immigration Physical. They have an itemized pricing - you only pay for the tests you actually get done. At least that's how it was in 2014 (my last medical RFE) - will find out whether anything has changed. Thanks for the heads up.

[almost]

Dear All,

Anyone able to say when we expect May 1st 2009 to be current for EB2I? Is it something reasonable to expect in Oct Visa Bulletin (with next years Quota opening up) or even last quarter of this calendar year?

Appreciate the responses.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Dear All,

Anyone able to say when we expect May 1st 2009 to be current for EB2I? Is it something reasonable to expect in Oct Visa Bulletin (with next years Quota opening up) or even last quarter of this calendar year?

Appreciate the responses.

Just pray and hope bro. I think it will be 6 months before you become current.

[imdeng]

Dear All,

Anyone able to say when we expect May 1st 2009 to be current for EB2I? Is it something reasonable to expect in Oct Visa Bulletin (with next years Quota opening up) or even last quarter of this calendar year?

Appreciate the responses.

May 01 2009 is within reach in next FY. I don't think it will open up as early as Oct 2018 but the latter half of the coming FY is a reasonable estimate.

[lville]

You may not have to port at all..I see EB3I moving past EB2I soon. Filing dates are already May 2009 for both, although USCIS is not honoring the dates. But it is always good to have 2 options.

USCIS is not honoring the dates ? Sorry for my ignorance but what does that mean ? After the dates becomes current, I always thought one proceeds with next step of getting EAD. I'm not much worried of getting GC in hand quick, that can come when it does. Even if I get EAD I'll be lucky. LOL

[gcq]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/now-trump-administration-wants-limit-citizenship-legal-immigrants-n897931

[gcq]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2018/08/01/new-lawsuit-could-solve-americas-green-card-shortage/#6e1ac9a7115c

On July 25, 2018, the firm of Kurzban Kurzban Weinger Tetzeli and Pratt P.A. (https://www.kkwtlaw.com/) filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia (Feng Wang, et al. v. Michael R. Pompeo) that challenges the way the federal government counts spouses and children when calculating the annual limit for the EB-5 (employment-based fifth preference) immigration category. David Bier at the Cato Institute, who I’ve worked with on several numerical analyses, estimates (https://www.cato.org/blog/new-lawsuit-would-increase-legal-immigration) if the lawsuit is successful it would significantly reduce wait times for many immigrants.

[newyorker123]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2018/08/01/new-lawsuit-could-solve-americas-green-card-shortage/#6e1ac9a7115c

On July 25, 2018, the firm of Kurzban Kurzban Weinger Tetzeli and Pratt P.A. (https://www.kkwtlaw.com/) filed a lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia (Feng Wang, et al. v. Michael R. Pompeo) that challenges the way the federal government counts spouses and children when calculating the annual limit for the EB-5 (employment-based fifth preference) immigration category. David Bier at the Cato Institute, who I’ve worked with on several numerical analyses, estimates (https://www.cato.org/blog/new-lawsuit-would-increase-legal-immigration) if the lawsuit is successful it would significantly reduce wait times for many immigrants.

Though far fetched, this is a positive development. The law firm is well known, and strong in legal circles, and of course with the rich backers, there is no dearth of money. This will be an interesting lawsuit, with possible positive impacts on the EB1-2-3 and Family immigrations

[raradhya]

Visa bulletin is out... dates retrogressed for Eb2
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-september-2018.html (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-september-2018.html)
Final action dates.





Employment-
based
All Chargeability
Areas Except
Those Listed
CHINA-
mainland
born
EL SALVADOR
GUATEMALA
HONDURAS
INDIA
MEXICO
PHILIPPINES
VIETNAM


1st
01JUN16
01JAN12
01JUN16
01JAN12
01JUN16
01JUN16
01JUN16


2nd
01JAN13
01JAN13
01JAN13
01JAN07
01JAN13
01JAN13
01JAN13


3rd
01NOV16
01NOV14
01NOV16
01JAN03
01NOV16
01NOV16
01NOV16


Other Workers
01NOV16
01MAY07
01NOV16
01JAN03
01NOV16
01NOV16
01NOV16


4th
C
C
15FEB16
15FEB16
15FEB16
C
C


Certain Religious Workers
C
C
15FEB16
15FEB16
15FEB16
C
C


5th Non-Regional Center
(C5 and T5)
C
08AUG14
C
C
C
C
08AUG14


5th Regional Center
(I5 and R5)
C
08AUG14
C
C
C
C
08AUG14

[EB2-03252009]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-september-2018.html

[HarepathekaIntezar]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-september-2018.html

This is so F**ked up. Basically CO is saying they have issued or will issue ALL the visas within the FY limit by the end of this month! Is USCIS working that efficiently that they have completed 12 months work in only 11 months?:mad::(

[iatiam]

Looks like the euphoria is over and things are back to normal now. It's been a pretty reasonable year for EB2I and EB3I with significant movement for EB3I and EB2I finally breaching the 2009 wall. Things will be more normal with 2-3 weeks movement until next summer.

With the crackdown on H1B filings, it's only a matter of time until the PERM filings are affected. Whether or not it will happen sooner or later, only time can tell.

Iatiam

[srimurthy]

Looks like the euphoria is over and things are back to normal now. It's been a pretty reasonable year for EB2I and EB3I with significant movement for EB3I and EB2I finally breaching the 2009 wall. Things will be more normal with 2-3 weeks movement until next summer.

With the crackdown on H1B filings, it's only a matter of time until the PERM filings are affected. Whether or not it will happen sooner or later, only time can tell.

Iatiam

Always scope for disappointment and surprises I guess. Even after having the EB2 2008 and 2009 485s mostly filed in 2012 and with clear visibility, they still dilly dally between so many dates and can go back to 2007.

[iatiam]

Always scope for disappointment and surprises I guess. Even after having the EB2 2008 and 2009 485s mostly filed in 2012 and with clear visibility, they still dilly dally between so many dates and can go back to 2007.
True. But look at the bright side. For one, it is clearly stated in the VB that the retrogression is temporary. Then EB3I has caught-up with EB2I so no more porting and even potential for downgrades in next FY. There is massive crackdown on H1B visas from Desi consultants and WITCH-type companies which will bring down EB1C filings. It's going to hurt a few genuine candidates but all in all, things should keep moving.

Iatiam

[redsox2009]

From Bulletin
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First:

WORLDWIDE (all countries): October Final Action Dates will be imposed for all countries. Limited, if any forward movement can be expected prior to December. Based on this statement, I think EB1 India becoming current is not happening near future.

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current for the foreseeable future.

China: Slow movement pending receipt of demand from recent advances

India: One or two weeks

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Current

China: Up to five weeks

India: Slow movement pending receipt of demand from recent advances EB3-India has a lot of scope to advance, based on my calculations, I expect to see less than 200 applications per month from July 2007 to April 2009, then from April 2009 there could be close to 700 applications per month.


Waiting for pending inventory to get the clear picture.

[newyorker123]

Its kind of weird that EB1-Worldwide will have a cut off final action date, but EB2/3 Worldwide will be current. Anyway I find lots of dates in there weird, guess it must be just me who does not understand the USCIS calculations.

[EB2-03252009]

Can we expect 04/01/2009 for EB2-I in Oct bulletin?


From Bulletin
EMPLOYMENT-based categories (potential monthly movement)

Employment First:

WORLDWIDE (all countries): October Final Action Dates will be imposed for all countries. Limited, if any forward movement can be expected prior to December. Based on this statement, I think EB1 India becoming current is not happening near future.

Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current for the foreseeable future.

China: Slow movement pending receipt of demand from recent advances

India: One or two weeks

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Current

China: Up to five weeks

India: Slow movement pending receipt of demand from recent advances EB3-India has a lot of scope to advance, based on my calculations, I expect to see less than 200 applications per month from July 2007 to April 2009, then from April 2009 there could be close to 700 applications per month.


Waiting for pending inventory to get the clear picture.

[srimurthy]

True. But look at the bright side. For one, it is clearly stated in the VB that the retrogression is temporary. Then EB3I has caught-up with EB2I so no more porting and even potential for downgrades in next FY. There is massive crackdown on H1B visas from Desi consultants and WITCH-type companies which will bring down EB1C filings. It's going to hurt a few genuine candidates but all in all, things should keep moving.

Iatiam

Not sure of the bright side. But for sure I see around myself a lot of people porting or refiling in EB1 from EB2 or EB3. So I don't see any fall down coming to EB2 and with around 3K visas every year I would assume 2009 and 10 would take atleast 3 or 4 years to clear

[Raj0687]

There aren't many trackitt approvals, I feel like the visa number utilization documents, stats that USCIS/DOS release are all fake and cocked up. It's sad that there is no way to prove this or even question these agencies and get the truth out. The agencies are run by anti-immigrants, so no law can stop them and courts are sold out to them.

[arc1202]

Been a long time observer of this forum. Just wanted to share some news from my end. I finally got my and my wife's GC last week after 10+ years in the US. Here are some of my details
PD - EB2, Feb 6, 2009
I-485 applied - sep 2014
RFE 1 - 2016
RFE 2 (Medical, SuppJ) - July 1, 2018
RFER - July 24, 2018
Approval - July 27, 2018
GC in mail - Aug 3, 2018

USCIS approved my case within 3 days of receiving the rfe response
Thanks to all in the forum for all the valuable insights especially Q and Spec.



All,
Request for Help/Info. My priority date is March 25,2009 and just now I received text message requesting "RFE" for I-485 for myself and my wife. I will be receiving copy of RFE sometimes next week.
The question/concern that I have is - as of today my wife is India (Aug1-Aug27) and due to this RFE - is she has to return to US immediately? OR as soon as she will be in US we provide all the documents for RFE and submit it to USCIS.
Please kindly share your inputs.

[imdeng]

All,
Request for Help/Info. My priority date is March 25,2009 and just now I received text message requesting "RFE" for I-485 for myself and my wife. I will be receiving copy of RFE sometimes next week.
The question/concern that I have is - as of today my wife is India (Aug1-Aug27) and due to this RFE - is she has to return to US immediately? OR as soon as she will be in US we provide all the documents for RFE and submit it to USCIS.
Please kindly share your inputs.

You will have 90 days from the date of RFE issue. Get your documents together, do medicals when your wife is back and send then. No need to rush back.

[Moveon]

EAD approved but AP denied:
I was checking the status of the EAD/AP for my wife and I online. If says that the EAD card is being produced but AP had been denied on Friday. It may take a week to get the notice my mail. Any idea on why this could have happened. Our EAD/AP cards expire in September 2018 and we applied back in March. We were Visiting India for 3 weeks the first part of July , back in US by the end of 3rd week .

Has anyone been through this and any pointers and what we need do next. I will reach out to my lawyers too
Thanks.

[nbk1976]

EAD approved but AP denied:
I was checking the status of the EAD/AP for my wife and I online. If says that the EAD card is being produced but AP had been denied on Friday. It may take a week to get the notice my mail. Any idea on why this could have happened. Our EAD/AP cards expire in September 2018 and we applied back in March. We were Visiting India for 3 weeks the first part of July , back in US by the end of 3rd week .

Has anyone been through this and any pointers and what we need do next. I will reach out to my lawyers too
Thanks.

It's likely you have applied too early. You can apply no earlier than 120 days from the expiry. They were lenient with the EAD since it is important for you to work, but AP was denied.

Or it could just be that you made a mistake on the AP form and needs correction. Do you keep copies of your filled application before mailing them? You should do that. If you do, please check them--or just wait for the letter from the CIS.

[imdeng]

EAD approved but AP denied:
I was checking the status of the EAD/AP for my wife and I online. If says that the EAD card is being produced but AP had been denied on Friday. It may take a week to get the notice my mail. Any idea on why this could have happened. Our EAD/AP cards expire in September 2018 and we applied back in March. We were Visiting India for 3 weeks the first part of July , back in US by the end of 3rd week .

Has anyone been through this and any pointers and what we need do next. I will reach out to my lawyers too
Thanks.

This is straightforward - if you travel out of country when AP renewal is pending, then the AP application is denied. Its a stupid but well documented rule. Simple Googling will give you many examples, lawyer posts etc. Its a non-issue though - you can reapply just for AP and make sure to not travel outside the country while the renewal is pending.

[nbk1976]

This is straightforward - if you travel out of country when AP renewal is pending, then the AP application is denied. Its a stupid but well documented rule. Simple Googling will give you many examples, lawyer posts etc. Its a non-issue though - you can reapply just for AP and make sure to not travel outside the country while the renewal is pending.

But they were presumably traveling on an approved AP that hadn't expired. They are allowed to renew before the expiration---but it looks as if they have applied way too early.

[altek001]

Visa Bulletin of Sept'18 looks cooked up and very fishy. Look at the horizantal sequence.

EB2 for all countries, except india is 01-JAN-13
EB3 for all countries, except india and china is 01-NOV-16

[nbk1976]

Visa Bulletin of Sept'18 looks cooked up and very fishy. Look at the horizantal sequence.

EB2 for all countries, except india is 01-JAN-13
EB3 for all countries, except india and china is 01-NOV-16

Did India EB-2 retrogress to Jan 2007?!! Does that mean, India EB-2 hasn't fully cleared 2007 and 2008? This makes no sense to me.

Or do they expect many EB3s in 2007 and 2008 will port to EB2?

[imdeng]

But they were presumably traveling on an approved AP that hadn't expired. They are allowed to renew before the expiration---but it looks as if they have applied way too early.

No - this is well documented - if you travel while the AP renewal is pending, then the renewal application is considered abandoned and hence rejected. The validity of current AP is not consequential.

https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2017/08/24/pending-131-advance-parole-applications-denied-due-international-travel/

[incredible]

No - this is well documented - if you travel while the AP renewal is pending, then the renewal application is considered abandoned and hence rejected. The validity of current AP is not consequential.

https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2017/08/24/pending-131-advance-parole-applications-denied-due-international-travel/

This is correct statement. I have been on EAD/AP for close to 5 years now. Every time we file EAD/AP, our attorney strongly suggests us not to travel till we get the AP approval (even if the existing AP is valid). Also every time we apply 6 months in advance, except for this time. We applied in March (September was the expiry date), and while EAD application was accepted, the AP application was not accepted and Attorney has to file it independently in May. We got AP first in June and EAD later in end of July.

[idliman]

We applied in March (September was the expiry date), and while EAD application was accepted, the AP application was not accepted and Attorney has to file it independently in May. We got AP first in June and EAD later in end of July. For the benefit of all people, could you elaborate on why AP was not accepted (i.e., receipt notice not issued for I-131)?

Item 3d of I-131 instruction says

If you depart from the United States before the Advance Parole Document is issued, your application for an Advance Parole Document will be considered abandoned. So they will reject all pending I-131 if you travel outside while your application is pending approval.

[arc1202]

You will have 90 days from the date of RFE issue. Get your documents together, do medicals when your wife is back and send then. No need to rush back.

Thanks a lot imdeng. Appreciate your response.

[incredible]

For the benefit of all people, could you elaborate on why AP was not accepted (i.e., receipt notice not issued for I-131)?

Item 3d of I-131 instruction says
So they will reject all pending I-131 if you travel outside while your application is pending approval.

AP was not accepted because it was 6 months prior to the expiry of the existing AP. AP can only be extended when it is 4 months due before expiration. This was always the case, but was not strictly followed in the past. Earlier (prior to this year), we used to file EAD/AP together 6 months prior to the expiry and always was approved. But nowadays USCIS is very strict on following the 6 months prior for EAD and 4 months prior for AP (prior to expiration dates).

Not accepted in the sense, no receipt notice is issued and the application was returned back. Here is the note from our Attorney on this

"Unfortunately, USCIS has returned the I-131 travel applications. I cannot resubmit those until within 120 days of expiration date of current travel document.
USCIS will normally accept the work and travel together, keeping them together, even though the difference of 180 days out filing I-765; 120 days out filing I-131. No issues, better to keep them as a set.
However, not for yours this time. USCIS is sticking to their timeline, without allowing the early filing to keep it connected with the work application".

The only dis-advantage I see with this is, while EAD was approved for 2 years (till 2020), the AP was only approved for one year and we need to file it again next year.

[tenyearsgone]

The only dis-advantage I see with this is, while EAD was approved for 2 years (till 2020), the AP was only approved for one year and we need to file it again next year.

Unfortunately, that also means that every year there's a window where you cannot travel out of the country. Every "inconvenience" is just piling on the misery.

BTW, I filed my EAD and AP without considering the differing timeline and as of now the applications have been accepted 180-days prior. Hoping they will both be approved.

[vyruss]

This is probably true but largely depends on the whims of the person handling your case. My wife and I applied for EAD/AP extension at the same time. She got the combo card valid for two years, but I got the EAD for two years and a separate AP approval for one year on paper. More and more people are just getting one year extensions on AP.


AP was not accepted because it was 6 months prior to the expiry of the existing AP. AP can only be extended when it is 4 months due before expiration. This was always the case, but was not strictly followed in the past. Earlier (prior to this year), we used to file EAD/AP together 6 months prior to the expiry and always was approved. But nowadays USCIS is very strict on following the 6 months prior for EAD and 4 months prior for AP (prior to expiration dates).

Not accepted in the sense, no receipt notice is issued and the application was returned back. Here is the note from our Attorney on this

"Unfortunately, USCIS has returned the I-131 travel applications. I cannot resubmit those until within 120 days of expiration date of current travel document.
USCIS will normally accept the work and travel together, keeping them together, even though the difference of 180 days out filing I-765; 120 days out filing I-131. No issues, better to keep them as a set.
However, not for yours this time. USCIS is sticking to their timeline, without allowing the early filing to keep it connected with the work application".

The only dis-advantage I see with this is, while EAD was approved for 2 years (till 2020), the AP was only approved for one year and we need to file it again next year.

[incredible]

This is probably true but largely depends on the whims of the person handling your case. My wife and I applied for EAD/AP extension at the same time. She got the combo card valid for two years, but I got the EAD for two years and a separate AP approval for one year on paper. More and more people are just getting one year extensions on AP.

I absolutely agree, it all depends on the person who reviews the documents. Now I need to file again in Feb of 2019 a new AP.

[altek001]

HR392 finally gets some Media Attention.

http://dailycaller.com/2018/08/13/iranians-fake-american-twitter/

https://nypost.com/2018/08/14/iranians-are-posing-as-maga-loving-twitter-trolls-online/

[idliman]

incredible: Thanks for your detailed Response.

Use the "Ask Emma" tool in USCIS website.
Q: How early can I apply for renewal of EAD Combo card ?
Emma: To renew a work authorization and advance parole combo card, you must file the Application for Employment Authorization, Form I-765, and Application for Travel Document, Form I-131, concurrently, and at least 180 days before the combo card is due to expire. For additional information on how to renew your combo EAD/AP card please access the links provided. View Page (https://www.uscis.gov/forms/filing-directions-obtain-employment-authorization-and-advance-parole-card-where-adjustment-status-application-pending)

Emma Sends you to the following page:
https://www.uscis.gov/forms/filing-directions-obtain-employment-authorization-and-advance-parole-card-where-adjustment-status-application-pending

The verbiage in that page is

If Form I-485 has already been filed and Forms I-765 and I-131 are being filed together, use Form I-765 filing location instructions.
I-765 already states 180 days. However the wording is "use I-765 filing location instructions". Again ambiguous. Why can't they just say "use Form I-765 filing location and instructions."

[bluelabel]

This morning we received 2 emails from DHS case status website stating that "We have taken an action your case". when i logged in to check the website for my cases, it's RFE on mine and wife's I-485. Our priority date is 03/02/2010 and it's surprising that we received an RFE when dates are retrogressed in Sep VB. This is our first RFE after filing I-485s in 2012 at NSC, Never changed jobs after filing I-485. Not sure if it's for medical report and supplement J.

No updates on regular USCIS case status website, it still says "Fingerprint Fee Was Received".

[idliman]

bluelabel: I am in the last week of Nov 2009 and have not received RFE (yet?). Some people after 15MAR2009 have received a RFE. I am trying to figure out if there is any real reason behind these RFE's. In my opinion at the most EB2I will probably reach Sep 2009 in one year (by OCT2019). I don't understand late 2009 and early 2010 EB2I's getting RFE's.

[Moveon]

We got the letter for the AP denial . Says that it was denied due to travel during the renewal period. If APs need to be renewed every year , then you cannot travel for 4-5 months a year. Very unfortunate especially if you have a family emergency.

[newyorker123]

We got the letter for the AP denial . Says that it was denied due to travel during the renewal period. If APs need to be renewed every year , then you cannot travel for 4-5 months a year. Very unfortunate especially if you have a family emergency.

I am trying to understand this better. IMO you still can travel in an emergency, only thing is that you need to file for AP again after you come back (if AP is denied). Now if there is a "second" emergency, your prior AP might have expired, and you cannot travel until second AP is approved. Is my understanding correct ?

[srimurthy]

I am trying to understand this better. IMO you still can travel in an emergency, only thing is that you need to file for AP again after you come back (if AP is denied). Now if there is a "second" emergency, your prior AP might have expired, and you cannot travel until second AP is approved. Is my understanding correct ?

Just out of curiosity, what happens if a 485 is filed and if we travel without a valid AP (expired or not having an approved one)?

[newyorker123]

@srimurthy, I am guessing if you are using your EAD status to work, and you don't have a valid AP, you might not be allowed to enter US. Its a pure guess. Am I correct, anyone?

[tenyearsgone]

Just out of curiosity, what happens if a 485 is filed and if we travel without a valid AP (expired or not having an approved one)?

I believe USCIS considers the I485 to be abandoned and without a valid AP you cannot re-enter the US. You can travel without issues if you have another valid visa status though (H1/H4 etc) and the I485 will not be abandoned.

[As always, please check with an attorney. The above is only my opinion.]

[incredible]

I believe USCIS considers the I485 to be abandoned and without a valid AP you cannot re-enter the US. You can travel without issues if you have another valid visa status though (H1/H4 etc) and the I485 will not be abandoned.

[As always, please check with an attorney. The above is only my opinion.]

This is correct. This will create issue in I485 itself as it would be deemed abandoned.

[newyorker123]

Oppenheimer on October 2018 VB : https://www.murthy.com/2018/08/15/september-2018-visa-bulletin-check-in-updated-predictions-for-fy19/

[srimurthy]

This is correct. This will create issue in I485 itself as it would be deemed abandoned.
Thanks for the info, so correct me if my understanding is right that we have to keep renewing AP even if we don't travel until the GC is approved.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Oppenheimer on October 2018 VB : https://www.murthy.com/2018/08/15/september-2018-visa-bulletin-check-in-updated-predictions-for-fy19/

WOW! EB1! The rest is not shocking.

[LASHAB]

Using the flawed data in 485 report, seems like EB2I will reach Sept/Oct 2009 with some spillover in this FY. With no spillover it would languish in Jun/Jul range. The real pending inventory no one knows for sure since the reports for last 1 yr has been all over the place. This is assuming no to minimal porting from EB3I.

[incredible]

Thanks for the info, so correct me if my understanding is right that we have to keep renewing AP even if we don't travel until the GC is approved.

I believe so. It is anyway good to have an approved AP (we do not know when the need for travel arises).

[EB3Iwaiting]

Iranians seem to be opposing HR392 the most. How many EB GCs did they take in the last 3 years? Can someone please post the links to the annual visa issuance stats?

[gs1968]

Iranians seem to be opposing HR392 the most. How many EB GCs did they take in the last 3 years? Can someone please post the links to the annual visa issuance stats?

The details are available in the Statistical year book published annually by the DHS. The last available publication is for FY 2016 and table 10 gives the breakdown below

https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2016/table10

[Spectator]

The details are available in the Statistical year book published annually by the DHS. The last available publication is for FY 2016 and table 10 gives the breakdown below

https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2016/table10

A better source would be the DOS Visa Statistics, especially as they are in charge of visa issuance.

At least they've managed to publish FY2017 figures.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics.html

Table V is the one you want.

[EB3Iwaiting]

A better source would be the DOS Visa Statistics, especially as they are in charge of visa issuance.

At least they've managed to publish FY2017 figures.

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics.html

Table V is the one you want.

Thanks Spec. I got a little lazy and posted the question before searching for it myself and then found it 3 mins later. It is interesting that they are crying "diversity" when they use less EB GCs and more DV GCs, the quota specifically created just to "promote diversity". It is unfortunate that folks are so used to getting GCs within 2 years that they do not even want to wait 5 years while Indians will literally die before getting one. Guess nothing wrong in looking out for themselves. But the numbers tell the story.

[Spectator]

To those who consistently post in this thread, content that should be in the Bills, Rules & Politics thread.

Fair warning, I will no longer move it - it will be deleted.

[LASHAB]

There has been a massive slowdown in SO in FY 2015 and literally no SO in 2016 and 2017 and miniscule SO in 2018, which has kept the inventory levels literally unchanged in last 3 FY for EB2I. Can we expect some SO in this FY?

[nbk1976]

I have a question for the Gurus in here with regards to change of jobs after EAD/Green card. Once you get your EAD, i think there is a wait period of 6 month before you can change jobs. Lets say you get your EAD and 6 months have passed. In the meantime you also get your GC, is there an additional restriction like you have to wait another 6 moths after you get your GC to change jobs.

From what I was told, when you get your GC you can do whatever you like: work for any employer or not work at all!

But if your GC was employment-based, and you were sponsored for a teaching job at a school, for example, and right after you got your green card, you changed your career dramatically and took up a high-paying job in a totally unrelated industry, the government might question you on whether the teacher job was just a ruse. They do random audits on recently issued GCs. It might also come up if you apply for citizenship.

Theoretically, you are free to do whatever you want with a GC, but to be safe, at least for the first 2 years, stay within the same industry, job, and pay-scale.

[idliman]

There has been a massive slowdown in SO in FY 2015 and literally no SO in 2016 and 2017 and miniscule SO in 2018, which has kept the inventory levels literally unchanged in last 3 FY for EB2I. Can we expect some SO in this FY?EB2I applications are still getting approved. A friend of mine with PD 10MAR09 got approved 2 days back. This shows the dates have not retrogressed internally. We have to wait for the pending inventory report and see. Recent EB3I applicants will not show up there. The only chance is for EB3I to move 6 months ahead of EB2I. This will stop porting and hopefully some downgrades. It looks like CO is trying his best to prevent EB3I from overtaking EB2I.

[newyorker123]

From what I was told, when you get your GC you can do whatever you like: work for any employer or not work at all!

But if your GC was employment-based, and you were sponsored for a teaching job at a school, for example, and right after you got your green card, you changed your career dramatically and took up a high-paying job in a totally unrelated industry, the government might question you on whether the teacher job was just a ruse. They do random audits on recently issued GCs. It might also come up if you apply for citizenship.

Theoretically, you are free to do whatever you want with a GC, but to be safe, at least for the first 2 years, stay within the same industry, job, and pay-scale.

I believe 2 years is a bit too much. I have heard at most of staying ~6 months in a similar job, after getting GC.

[qesehmk]

To my knowledge, there is no law or explicit requirement that states you MUST stay in a job X number of days. So for the USCIS to catch you for jumping ship will be tough to stand in a court of law.

Besides EB-I folks have been waiting for 9 years in most cases by now ... it would be ridiculous to expect people not to jump ship.

Finally - jumping ship only helps economy because only good people jump ship and so that means there is another employer who needs you more than the current one which is a good thing for economy. And hence it would be stupid for USCIS to start suing people for jumping ships.

So for what it's worth - don't hold your career back. Go ahead.


I have a question for the Gurus in here with regards to change of jobs after EAD/Green card. Once you get your EAD, i think there is a wait period of 6 month before you can change jobs. Lets say you get your EAD and 6 months have passed. In the meantime you also get your GC, is there an additional restriction like you have to wait another 6 moths after you get your GC to change jobs.

[lville]

EB2I applications are still getting approved. A friend of mine with PD 10MAR09 got approved 2 days back. This shows the dates have not retrogressed internally. We have to wait for the pending inventory report and see. Recent EB3I applicants will not show up there. The only chance is for EB3I to move 6 months ahead of EB2I. This will stop porting and hopefully some downgrades. It looks like CO is trying his best to prevent EB3I from overtaking EB2I.

My PD is EB 2 May 22,2009. If EB3 moves past my date, I'll switch to EB3 right away. Not sure how many days it takes to downgrade, anyone here has any idea ? Looks like to get past May 22,2009 in EB2 will take another 2 to 3 years.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

EB2I applications are still getting approved. A friend of mine with PD 10MAR09 got approved 2 days back. This shows the dates have not retrogressed internally. We have to wait for the pending inventory report and see. Recent EB3I applicants will not show up there. The only chance is for EB3I to move 6 months ahead of EB2I. This will stop porting and hopefully some downgrades. It looks like CO is trying his best to prevent EB3I from overtaking EB2I.
Has anyone that got approved in this month get their cards yet? I am hearing that I/O's are telling candidates who go for interviews that they have been approved, but have to wait for visa numbers to be available.

[EB2-03252009]

Pending inventory released, EB2I numbers messed up again.

[Spectator]

Pending inventory released, EB2I numbers messed up again.

Can you provide a link to the pdf please?

I still only see the April report as the latest.

[EB2-03252009]

Can you provide a link to the pdf please?

I still only see the April report as the latest.

lol i dont see it now, July 2018 is wat they uploaded.

[EB2-03252009]

Ok somebody posted the link on trackitt

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485s_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_201 8.pdf

[srimurthy]

Ok somebody posted the link on trackitt

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485s_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_201 8.pdf

From the EB1 India 485 list it looks like people are porting from EB2 to EB1 whoever has a date in 2010 or beyond.

[Spectator]

lol i dont see it now, July 2018 is wat they uploaded.

Still can't see it on the main site, but it's currently at this page (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485s_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_201 8.pdf).

A quick glance says it's not showing anything much after February 2017, so it's of limited value.

[srisri]

Still can't see it on the main site, but it's currently at this page (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485s_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_201 8.pdf).

A quick glance says it's not showing anything much after February 2017, so it's of limited value.

it shows EB2 India has almost 7000 for 2008, doesn’t sound right.. hopefully it’s not wishful won my part.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Still can't see it on the main site, but it's currently at this page (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485s_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_201 8.pdf).

A quick glance says it's not showing anything much after February 2017, so it's of limited value.

It was never anywhere close to being accurate. Now it is even more useless. I personally know April 2018 filers who have been approved. They won't show up in the inventory. But those who have been scheduled for interview should show up in the count, which is clearly not the case.

[march272010]

Got rfe today for I-693 and G-325 A

PD March 2010

[aquatican]

That’s such an unlikely date. They should not be issuing such far fetched RFE. Sigh..

[EB3Iwaiting]

Still can't see it on the main site, but it's currently at this page (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485s_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_July_201 8.pdf).

A quick glance says it's not showing anything much after February 2017, so it's of limited value.

It does not show the pending inventory anymore. Looks like USCIS removed it. But by the posts above, it seems that the inventory was useless to begin with anyway.

[whereismygc]

It does not show the pending inventory anymore. Looks like USCIS removed it. But by the posts above, it seems that the inventory was useless to begin with anyway.

It looks like it is useless by design, not by accident. In other words USCIS/DOS whoever is responsible, want to make a show that they are transparent but don't really want to reveal the correct data. They apparently can hit a camel's ass with a tomhawk missile from a 1000 miles away but can't provide real time data of how many people are in the 485 queue. :confused:

[redsox2009]

Here is the 2018 July DOS data.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
00
00
18
00
28
00
171
217


EB2
17
10
01
08
089
000
103
228



EB3
012
099
013
382
045
004
342
897


EB4
001
032
000
003
000
001
101
138


EB5
074
039
005
000
030
001
195
344


Total
104
180
037
393
192
006
912
1824

[redsox2009]

YOD DOS Data total.





China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
1457
0183
0073
0012
0281
0018
1796
3820


EB2
0079
0068
0040
0339
1064
0029
1261
2880



EB3
0498
0656
0199
4371
0417
0085
3333
9559


EB4
033
184
005
046
036
038
1247
1589


EB5
3722
0315
0058
0009
0411
0658
1826
6999


Total
5789
1406
0375
4777
2209
0828
9463
24847

[newyorker123]

Excuse my ignorance, but
- why are EB2 numbers for China/India so low ?
- Why is EB1 China number so much higher than EB1 India ?

[unknownindian1]

I have been thinking of posting my situation for quite some time but I am not sure if folks would take issue with my post since I am looking for personal advice. Please delete if it is inappropriate.

I am on EB2 with a priority date of Sep 2009. We are currently in NY but my spouse (J1) needs to move to Nevada in June 2019 and then to Alabama in June 2020. I really want to be with my family and I am not sure which option I should take.
Option 1 - Keep my current job and fly into NY every other week and permanently move to Alabama after Green Card is finalized. (I assume that I will be greened before June 2020 - optimistic)
Option 2 - Ignore green card and just move with my spouse to NV/ AL. I guess I could try to get a job in Alabama starting end of 2019 but I am not sure if any employer would start the green card process before I join and It might delay my green card for a year or 2.
A lot of my friends think Option1 is the best, but I would really like to get perspective from different folks in the forum. Thanks

[Spectator]

Excuse my ignorance, but
- why are EB2 numbers for China/India so low ?
- Why is EB1 China number so much higher than EB1 India ?

Remember these are figures for Consular Processing approvals only.

The figures do not include AOS cases, which make up around 90% of overall approvals within EB1 to EB3.

India in particular does not have very many people who use the Consular Processing route. For example, in FY2017, it was 0.9% for EB1, 2.5% for Eb2 and around 3.1% for EB3 of the total approvals.

In FY2017, China had higher figures for these categories (10.2%, 4.5%, 15.9%).

As you can see, The EB1 use of CP by China is very different to India. Current months show no use because the EB1 FAD has been retrogressed to 01JAN12 since April.

[newyorker123]

Thank you for the explanation Spectator !

[nbk1976]

I have been thinking of posting my situation for quite some time but I am not sure if folks would take issue with my post since I am looking for personal advice. Please delete if it is inappropriate.

I am on EB2 with a priority date of Sep 2009. We are currently in NY but my spouse (J1) needs to move to Nevada in June 2019 and then to Alabama in June 2020. I really want to be with my family and I am not sure which option I should take.
Option 1 - Keep my current job and fly into NY every other week and permanently move to Alabama after Green Card is finalized. (I assume that I will be greened before June 2020 - optimistic)
Option 2 - Ignore green card and just move with my spouse to NV/ AL. I guess I could try to get a job in Alabama starting end of 2019 but I am not sure if any employer would start the green card process before I join and It might delay my green card for a year or 2.
A lot of my friends think Option1 is the best, but I would really like to get perspective from different folks in the forum. Thanks

So your having to choose between Alabama and foregoing your Green Card? :)

I don't follow: are your the primary beneficiary of this green card? or is it your spouse? If you are the derivative, then you have many options; but if you are the primary, then my question is do you have an EAD?

If you quit your current job without another job ready in AL, and you are RFE'd, you might have to scramble. But family comes first: since you are late 2009, and if you believe your job prospects are good, you could quit and move.

Please give us more background about your current immigration status for comments.

[idliman]

I am on EB2 with a priority date of Sep 2009. We are currently in NY but my spouse (J1) needs to move to Nevada in June 2019 and then to Alabama in June 2020. I really want to be with my family and I am not sure which option I should take.
Option 1 - Keep my current job and fly into NY every other week and permanently move to Alabama after Green Card is finalized. (I assume that I will be greened before June 2020 - optimistic)
Option 2 - Ignore green card and just move with my spouse to NV/ AL. I guess I could try to get a job in Alabama starting end of 2019 but I am not sure if any employer would start the green card process before I join and It might delay my green card for a year or 2.
A lot of my friends think Option1 is the best, but I would really like to get perspective from different folks in the forum. Thanks
It all depends on AC21 portability. Did you already apply for I485 and have an EAD (I485 pending for 180 days)? It might take Oct 2019 for Sep 2009 to be current. I would advise you to keep the current job and make things work by travel (once or twice a month). Then you can look for a job in same or similar category and then port using AC21.

If you have not applied for I485, then you need to do a new PERM. That's a different ball game. I would advise you to look for 1.5 years from now. Not just till Jul 2019. Can you work out the relationship by traveling for the next 1.5years. Once a month means 15 trips. Time flies and soon you will reach the light at the end of the tunnel. Good Luck.

[march1612]

Got rfe today for I-693 and G-325 A

PD March 2010

Very interesting. Anyone has a theory behind this wave of RFE's? Can we expect EB2-I dates move into 2010?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Remember these are figures for Consular Processing approvals only.

The figures do not include AOS cases, which make up around 90% of overall approvals within EB1 to EB3.

India in particular does not have very many people who use the Consular Processing route. For example, in FY2017, it was 0.9% for EB1, 2.5% for Eb2 and around 3.1% for EB3 of the total approvals.

In FY2017, China had higher figures for these categories (10.2%, 4.5%, 15.9%).

As you can see, The EB1 use of CP by China is very different to India. Current months show no use because the EB1 FAD has been retrogressed to 01JAN12 since April.

This year the CP cases seem to make up almost 20% of total approvals!

[unknownindian1]

Thanks folks (nbk1976, idliman ) for your comments and I apologize for not being clearer earlier.

I am the primary beneficiary of the green card. I have not applied for I-485 and do not have an EAD. I missed it last time (new PERM application after a job change).

idliman: I think I can work out the relationship by flying back and forth but it will be hard for sure. My spouse is moving to NV in June 2019 and I guess I will have to manage by flying back and forth till I get a GC. Hopefully, I will get the GC by mid-2020

[march272010]

Just to be more clear I got my 485 J supplement approval notice along with rfe as it submitted 6 months back itself.

[newyorker123]

Also on 9/11, USCIS Policy of Denials Instead of RFE/NOID is coming into place.

9/11 is the date to MAGA !

[smuggymba]

I have jumped ships twice already after getting EAD in 2012. Planning a 3rd Jump now.

I'm in my second company after getting EAD in the previous one that filed GC. As long as the next company can help with supp J, jump ship without thinking.

[smuggymba]

Very interesting. Anyone has a theory behind this wave of RFE's? Can we expect EB2-I dates move into 2010?

These are all NSC cases I believe. I'm March 2010 PD TSC...and it's full sannata since 2012.

[iatiam]

These are all NSC cases I believe. I'm March 2010 PD TSC...and it's full sannata since 2012.

Same here. I am Aug 2009 TSC. No news since 2012.

Iatiam

[rotikapdaaurgc]

These are all NSC cases I believe. I'm March 2010 PD TSC...and it's full sannata since 2012.

Friends,

Have you seen a case recently where EAD/AP extension has been declined for an AOS applicant?

I’ve just heard of 2 cases at work where H-1B extension was denied even though the guys had an approved I-140 since 2011.

Is EAD/AP extension also getting denied these days?

[idliman]

Same here. I am Aug 2009 TSC. No news since 2012.
Iatiam
Do you think you will be current by Summer 2019? It used to be that we can predict with some level of confidance. It is strange, but I have no idea of date movements going forward. Just an educated guess of 6 months movement in 2019. Maybe Sep2009 by Oct 2019 bulletin?

[incredible]

Do you think you will be current by Summer 2019? It used to be that we can predict with some level of confidance. It is strange, but I have no idea of date movements going forward. Just an educated guess of 6 months movement in 2019. Maybe Sep2009 by Oct 2019 bulletin?

Hi All

My PD is 02/2010 EB2. Today I have received RFE for medicals, G-325 and Supplement J.

[march1612]

Hi All

My PD is 02/2010 EB2. Today I have received RFE for medicals, G-325 and Supplement J.

Please let us know your service center, NSC or TSC?

[incredible]

Please let us know your service center, NSC or TSC?
It is NSC. I am not sure if that has any significance and most importantly not sure why they are asking for the information for 2010 PD.

[iatiam]

Do you think you will be current by Summer 2019? It used to be that we can predict with some level of confidance. It is strange, but I have no idea of date movements going forward. Just an educated guess of 6 months movement in 2019. Maybe Sep2009 by Oct 2019 bulletin?

Idliman, I am optimistic that dates will move to end of 2008 by October 2019. There are multiple reasons,
1. With EB3 moving forward, porting will come to an end and even lead to reverse porting from EB2I.
2. From June 2008 to Dec 2009, PERM filings are very low due to recession. The existing inventory might be very conservative 1000 per month which needs about 9,000 visas to clear
3. The crackdown on H1B filings is going to help. Anecdotal evidence and personal experience shows that it's not just Indians who are feeling the heat from Trump policies - ROW folks are also getting affected
4. Interview requirements and scrutiny of WITCH firms will reduce EB1C demand. Already CTS a big beneficiary of EB1C is having major issues to get H1B renewals

Iatiam

[newyorker123]

Idliman, I am optimistic that dates will move to end of 2008 by October 2019. There are multiple reasons,
1. With EB3 moving forward, porting will come to an end and even lead to reverse porting from EB2I.
2. From June 2008 to Dec 2009, PERM filings are very low due to recession. The existing inventory might be very conservative 1000 per month which needs about 9,000 visas to clear
3. The crackdown on H1B filings is going to help. Anecdotal evidence and personal experience shows that it's not just Indians who are feeling the heat from Trump policies - ROW folks are also getting affected
4. Interview requirements and scrutiny of WITCH firms will reduce EB1C demand. Already CTS a big beneficiary of EB1C is having major issues to get H1B renewals

Iatiam

I appreciate your optimism, but with this admin, NOTHING is for sure.
We take a hunch at the numbers, but at the end of the day, it could all be utter hogwash. It could just be somebody crunching these numbers in the mind.

On 3. Indians + Chinese are 80-90 % of the H1b's. Its not sure if ROW folks are getting impacted.
On 4. There is NO proof that all this will reduce EB1C demand. On the contrary, I feel that if CTS is having trouble with H1b renewals, they will start filing MORE EB1C's (as the H1b extension route is getting closed).

Sorry for the rant, but I do not see the light at the end of the tunnel, unless this admin goes away which (if polls are to be believed) could take 6 more years !

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB1C route is L1A to EB1C, not H1B. So, unless they crack down on L1As, the demand will remain.

[iatiam]

I appreciate your optimism, but with this admin, NOTHING is for sure.
We take a hunch at the numbers, but at the end of the day, it could all be utter hogwash. It could just be somebody crunching these numbers in the mind.

On 3. Indians + Chinese are 80-90 % of the H1b's. Its not sure if ROW folks are getting impacted.
On 4. There is NO proof that all this will reduce EB1C demand. On the contrary, I feel that if CTS is having trouble with H1b renewals, they will start filing MORE EB1C's (as the H1b extension route is getting closed).

Sorry for the rant, but I do not see the light at the end of the tunnel, unless this admin goes away which (if polls are to be believed) could take 6 more years !
Here is some data for you to ponder over. Source is National Foundation for American Policy which has taken the data from USCIS.
1389
1390

As you can see the RFE and rejection rates for India as well as other countries have gone up for both H1B and L1A. I will let you interpret the data you want but it's clear that every one is getting affected by the policies. True, as the biggest beneficiary, Indians are affected most but I personally know multiple people who's petitions were affected.

All this when economy is doing well and there are more jobs than applicants. If the economy goes south, which it will, then it's anybody's guess what will happen.

Iatiam

[canada]

Idliman, I am optimistic that dates will move to end of 2008 by October 2019. There are multiple reasons,
1. With EB3 moving forward, porting will come to an end and even lead to reverse porting from EB2I.
2. From June 2008 to Dec 2009, PERM filings are very low due to recession. The existing inventory might be very conservative 1000 per month which needs about 9,000 visas to clear
3. The crackdown on H1B filings is going to help. Anecdotal evidence and personal experience shows that it's not just Indians who are feeling the heat from Trump policies - ROW folks are also getting affected
4. Interview requirements and scrutiny of WITCH firms will reduce EB1C demand. Already CTS a big beneficiary of EB1C is having major issues to get H1B renewals

Iatiam

Hi,

Was it a typo error when you mentioned that the dates will move to the end of 2008 by October 2019 instead of 2009 by October 2019?

Thanks

[iatiam]

[QUOTE=canada;60136]Hi,

Was it a typo error when you mentioned that the dates will move to the end of 2008 by October 2019 instead of 2009 by October 2019?

Thanks[/QUOT

You are correct. It should be end of 2009

[canada]

[QUOTE=canada;60136]Hi,

Was it a typo error when you mentioned that the dates will move to the end of 2008 by October 2019 instead of 2009 by October 2019?

Thanks[/QUOT

You are correct. It should be end of 2009

Thanks. The first time I read your post as 2008, I felt very depressed 😥 but thankfully you said it’s 2009🙂

Have a great weekend

[harshrk]

Hi All

My PD is 02/2010 EB2. Today I have received RFE for medicals, G-325 and Supplement J.

Hi,

I saw some people on Trackitt as well informing that they received such queries. I am guessing you already have an EAD correct? And on Trackitt the response was that this is supposed to be an automated query which happens when the medicals submitted earlier expire.

Can you please tell me that whether this is the case with you as well?

My interest in wanting to know this is that, I am PD July 2010 and I am desperately waiting for dates to move forward (and per earlier comments on thread, it is very unlikely that the dates will move forward that much) :-(

Thanks.

[Spectator]

USCIS appears to have published some revised July Inventory figures (kind of, sort of)

They aren't currently appearing on the main page, but can be found here (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_485_Inventory_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as _of_July_2018.pdf).

They were produced a week after the first set which subsequently disappeared.

They are still pretty useless, but the Indian EB2 figures have returned to something approximating the last good numbers seen in August 2017.

If you want to look at them, I suggest you download them. Who knows if they'll disappear again.

Originally Published EB2-I July Inventory
1391

Latest Published EB2-I July Inventory
1392

[EB2-03252009]

Hi Spec and others,

My PD is 03/25/2009 EB2-I, 485J approved on 07/22/18, I plan to change job soon, do you guys think its a good think to do now or wait for GC approval? or will they again ask for i-485j?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

USCIS appears to have published some revised July Inventory figures (kind of, sort of)

They aren't currently appearing on the main page, but can be found here (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/EB_485_Inventory_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as _of_July_2018.pdf).

They were produced a week after the first set which subsequently disappeared.

They are still pretty useless, but the Indian EB2 figures have returned to something approximating the last good numbers seen in August 2017.

If you want to look at them, I suggest you download them. Who knows if they'll disappear again.

Originally Published EB2-I July Inventory
1391

Latest Published EB2-I July Inventory
1392

This update definitely makes sense only if it is the Total USCIS Inventory (not just field offices). The other numbers in the inventory do not make any sense. For example, EB3I has inventory in 2009 (even though USCIS is not accepting the Filing Dates)?

[incredible]

Hi,

I saw some people on Trackitt as well informing that they received such queries. I am guessing you already have an EAD correct? And on Trackitt the response was that this is supposed to be an automated query which happens when the medicals submitted earlier expire.

Can you please tell me that whether this is the case with you as well?

My interest in wanting to know this is that, I am PD July 2010 and I am desperately waiting for dates to move forward (and per earlier comments on thread, it is very unlikely that the dates will move forward that much) :-(

Thanks.

Yes. I do have an EAD back from 2012 (filed I485 in 2012). No other changes apart from that. I am not sure why this came now since medicals would have expired back in 2013 itself.

[AceMan]

Last week, three of my friends with late 2007 EB 3 PD confirmed they received their GC. They were all April 2018 filers. EB3-I looks like a good forward in 2019.

[redsox2009]

Based on the inventory if my guess is correct EB3 will pass EB2 dates.

[GCkaLADDU]

@Harepatthekaintezar

Well. The report says its for Service Centers and Field Offices

[qesehmk]

The latest inventory has EB3I corrected. No the inventory won't include AOS. It explicitely states 485.
This update definitely makes sense only if it is the Total USCIS Inventory (not just field offices). The other numbers in the inventory do not make any sense. For example, EB3I has inventory in 2009 (even though USCIS is not accepting the Filing Dates)?

[qesehmk]

Based on the inventory if my guess is correct EB3 will pass EB2 dates.
When EB3 catches up or moves ahead of EB2, then all porting stops. If it moves ahead then we might strangely see reverse porting. In theory EB3 workforce should always be bigger than EB2 but a lot of strange things happen in the world :)

[srimurthy]

EB1C route is L1A to EB1C, not H1B. So, unless they crack down on L1As, the demand will remain.
Not necessary, if the H1 has been from the last 3 years or so and are managers in India, they can still file EB1C. And I know a few H1 cases where EB1C was file a couple of years go and also greened.

[srisri]

Not necessary, if the H1 has been from the last 3 years or so and are managers in India, they can still file EB1C. And I know a few H1 cases where EB1C was file a couple of years go and also greened.

I agree, I have known couple of H1B’s who have applied in EB1C and greened.

[LASHAB]

This update definitely makes sense only if it is the Total USCIS Inventory (not just field offices). The other numbers in the inventory do not make any sense. For example, EB3I has inventory in 2009 (even though USCIS is not accepting the Filing Dates)?

I guess if this inventory report is accurate (looks more accurate than last couple of published reports by looking at inventory post Jul 2009) FY 2019 will end with PDs in later part of 2009 (Oct-Dec) depending on the SO this year.

[EB2-03252009]

Hi Spec and others,

My PD is 03/25/2009 EB2-I, 485J approved on 07/22/18, I plan to change job soon, do you guys think its a good think to do now or wait for GC approval? or will they again ask for i-485j?

anyone??????

[EB3Iwaiting]

Not necessary, if the H1 has been from the last 3 years or so and are managers in India, they can still file EB1C. And I know a few H1 cases where EB1C was file a couple of years go and also greened.

What I meant was, L1A to EB1C is the PREFERRED route. Of course there will be exceptions like you mentioned. But I am sure that most go the L1A route.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Last week, three of my friends with late 2007 EB 3 PD confirmed they received their GC. They were all April 2018 filers. EB3-I looks like a good forward in 2019.

So, they had their interviews and got greened? That was pretty fast!

[idliman]

Hi Spec and others,

My PD is 03/25/2009 EB2-I, 485J approved on 07/22/18, I plan to change job soon, do you guys think its a good think to do now or wait for GC approval? or will they again ask for i-485j?You are so close yet far. Only CO knows whether he is going to hold the EB2I dates at before 15MAR09 or move it immediately in Oct. You will know the visa bulletin movement in a week. I would probably wait, but the fact that you are posting this shows that you are willing to take a chance and move on with the next job.

[Spectator]

I thought it might be useful to put the USCIS Inventory figures into some kind of historical context, since that might help people with deciding about their veracity.
1394

FWIW these would be my thoughts.

You can see that in recent times, the figures have been rather changeable.

Despite the title of the latest figures saying it includes Field Office cases, they clearly do not. The obvious clue is that there is no data for cases beyond early March 2017 for EB1-EB3.
That neatly coincides with the March 7 2017 cutoff date for cases that now have mandatory interview requirements. Perhaps USCIS is playing word games and it includes a few at Field Offices, but none at NBC. It doesn't really matter.

The only figures remaining that have any semblance of usefulness are those for EB2-I. That is the only group remaining that has significant numbers of I-485 cases submitted before March 7 2017.

No other figures can be considered even remotely complete and are therefore useless to predict upcoming demand.

I've also highlighted the recent inconsistencies in the PD Year figures for EB2-I. Although I've only shown the relatively recent past. Those figures hold true pretty much all the way back to when EB2-I reached 01MAY10 for a short period in 2012 and FAD movement over the time since.

[gcvijay]

Spec

Do you think the filing dates(even if USCIS doesn't honor it) will give a clear picture of where EB2 and Eb3 INDIA will land by end of FY 2019?

[GCkaLADDU]

Spec

Do you think the filing dates(even if USCIS doesn't honor it) will give a clear picture of where EB2 and Eb3 INDIA will land by end of FY 2019?

Gurus

My i-140 was approved via consular processing route. My understanding is that priority date for me would be determined by chart b (Filing dates). Can you please comment if its not correct?