EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[march1612]

What happen to additional unused visa's? Did CO already used them up?

A week ago CO mentioned there would be a big movement in EB2 and EB3. What made CO to go for conservative approach?

July VB will be still interesting to see how far filing dates would be moved.

I suspect unused numbers are heading over to Family system....

[lville]

Man if its not going to move past March 2009, it sux. I am at EB2 05/22/2009. I'm happy for people who will benefit from 3 month advancement but it really sux. I'll have to wait for 2 more years. 1 year to get date current and then 1 year to go thru all the process till I get my card in hand.

[Spectator]

I suspect unused numbers are heading over to Family system....

There's really no scenario where FB can benefit from unused EB numbers in the following FY (in contrast to the other way around).

Here's a simplified version of the law that sets the FB allocation for the FY:


(c) Worldwide Level of Family-Sponsored Immigrants. -

(1) (A) The worldwide level of family-sponsored immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is -

(i) 480,000,

(ii) minus the number of Immediate Relative visas issued in the previous FY.

(iii) plus unused EB visas from previous FY.

(B) In no case shall the number computed under subparagraph (A) be less than 226,000.

Let's plug in the numbers for FY2017: (chosen because the last figures published by USCIS for IR visas is for FY2016)

(i) 480,000
(ii) 566,706 IR Visas issued in FY2016
(iii) 0 unused EB visas from FY2016

So, 480,000 - 566,706 + 0 = (86,706)

The allocation defaulted to the minimum number of 226,000.


What if there were no EB approvals the previous FY?

480,000 - 566,706 + 140,000 = 53,294

This is still below the minimum allocation, so it would default to 226,000.

You can see that due to the huge number of IR approvals, it's impossible for FB to ever benefit from unused EB visas.

Even though FY2016 had quite high IR approvals, any of the previous FY back to (at least) FY2007 would still have resulted in the same outcome.

FY2016 --- 566,706
FY2015 --- 465,068
FY2014 --- 416,456
FY2013 --- 439,460
FY2012 --- 478,780
FY2011 --- 453,158
FY2010 --- 476,414
FY2009 --- 535,554
FY2008 --- 488,483
FY2007 --- 494,920

[march1612]

There's really no scenario where FB can benefit from unused EB numbers in the following FY (in contrast to the other way around).

Here's a simplified version of the law that sets the FB allocation for the FY:



Let's plug in the numbers for FY2017: (chosen because the last figures published by USCIS for IR visas is for FY2016)

(i) 480,000
(ii) 566,706 IR Visas issued in FY2016
(iii) 0 unused EB visas from FY2016

So, 480,000 - 566,706 + 0 = (86,706)

The allocation defaulted to the minimum number of 226,000.


What if there were no EB approvals the previous FY?

480,000 - 566,706 + 140,000 = 53,294

This is still below the minimum allocation, so it would default to 226,000.

You can see that due to the huge number of IR approvals, it's impossible for FB to ever benefit from unused EB visas.

Thanks Spec,
back to my question , where did the unused numbers go? The only thing I can think of is wasteage

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec,
back to my question , where did the unused numbers go? The only thing I can think of is wasteage

Yes it's wastage, all the worse because no one benefits.

You have to be philosophical about it. S**T happens.

I didn't see anyone crying a river when EB benefited from unused FB visas. It's human nature.

FB Extra Visas to EB
FY2017 --------- 0
FY2016 ------- 338
FY2015 ----- 4,796
FY2014 ---- 10,241
FY2013 ---- 18,466
FY2012 ----- 4,951
FY2011 --------- 0
FY2010 ---- 10,657
FY2009 --------- 0
FY2008 ---- 22,704

Total ----- 72,153


All this at a time when every Country in every FB category was retrogressed. It never should have happened in an ideal world.

[newyorker123]

You have to be philosophical about it. S**T happens.


I suspect the lobbying forces - this is similar to what happened when VB dates were pushed back. Lobbying forces / Racist admin - what all are we fighting ? and wasting our valuable years.

[qesehmk]

You have to be philosophical about it. S**T happens.

I didn't see anyone crying a river when EB benefited from unused FB visas. It's human nature.


It doesn't happen very often that I disagree with you Spec. But this is one of those times.
A) EB has no reason to cry a river over FB loss.
B) EB has every right to cry over unused visas when folks are waiting in line for 10+ years.
C) EB has every right to scream over fast lanes for countries like timbktu and extra slow lanes for countries like India

[Spectator]

It doesn't happen very often that I disagree with you Spec. But this is one of those times.
A) EB has no reason to cry a river over FB loss.
B) EB has every right to cry over unused visas when folks are waiting in line for 10+ years.
C) EB has every right to scream over fast lanes for countries like timbktu and extra slow lanes for countries like India

Q,

We'll have to disagree.

EB shouldn't cry a river over EB loss either. EB have profited far more from the arrangement.

Some Countries in FB have been waiting much longer than 10 years. Far more Countries are impacted with a much bigger backlog.

I smell self-interest (in the wider sense) and hypocrisy in your comments above.

If you want this to still be a forum for Predictions (Rather Calculations) then it's necessary to take a dispassionate view.

I see less and less of that these days. It's turning into an alt-Trackkit, moaning about the usual suspects, with a whiff of the site that shall not be named.

There was a time when that didn't happen.

[imdeng]

Q,

...

If you want this to still be a forum for Predictions (Rather Calculations) then it's necessary to take a dispassionate view.

I see less and less of that these days. It's turning into an alt-Trackkit, moaning about the usual suspects, with a whiff of the site that shall not be named.

There was a time when that didn't happen.

Spec - I suspect the reason is that once we had a lot of useful data and information to base our analysis on - Calculations and Predictions indeed. We did focus on that then. However, past couple years have been a void - all we can do are guesses in the dark so not much useful emerges out of that. Some of the old guard is still around - just doesn't have anything concrete to contribute anymore I imagine.

Plus - I think you would need to allow for a little passion in the discourse here. Yes - it is self interest, yes there is hypocrisy - but I don't know whether it is possible to approach the topic without passion when it determines whether multiple decades of your life lead to the hoped for conclusion or not.

[qesehmk]

Spec,

Nothing wrong with disagreements over facts. Our disagreements are over preferences it seems. You don't seem to see anything unjust with country quotas. Tell me if I am wrong.

I am not sure what's wrong with acting in self interest. I also do not understand how not speaking for FB (when this site is mostly dedicated to EB) is hypocracy!!

Looks like my second last post hit home Spec! If you work for State Dept, you need to give it a good think... how unjust it is for Indians that are 1/6th of world population to be taking a slow train while smaller nations zip by! I personally think State Dept still lives with the cold war mentality.

If all these years of calculations have taught me one thing - then it is that the "Country Quota" is the #1 evil for EB immigration. Period. Speaking about it is very much in line with the purpose of this thread and site.

While we do provide calculations and objective information. It is important that we also remain a community. We can't fault people for ranting because everybody needs a vent. Their children are in danger of aging out. They have been living in freaking apartment for decades. Renewing licenses and taking shit from MVDs all over the US. Taking shit at work from less capable people. Being underpaid as much as 50% for the kind of work they delivery.

So lets be tolerant and objective. You have been a great resource to folks on this forum. I have tremendous respect for you. But as you said - we have to disagree on this topic it seems.



Q,

We'll have to disagree.

EB shouldn't cry a river over EB loss either. EB have profited far more from the arrangement.

Some Countries in FB have been waiting much longer than 10 years. Far more Countries are impacted with a much bigger backlog.

I smell self-interest (in the wider sense) and hypocrisy in your comments above.

If you want this to still be a forum for Predictions (Rather Calculations) then it's necessary to take a dispassionate view.

I see less and less of that these days. It's turning into an alt-Trackkit, moaning about the usual suspects, with a whiff of the site that shall not be named.

There was a time when that didn't happen.

[iatiam]

Most of us EB folks have spend our youths here in this country which gives no transparency in to the immigration process. FB has a choice, they live in their own countries and can chose not to come to the US when the GC arrives in the mail. I for one would not have chosen to come here if I knew how messed up the system is.

Either remove the country caps, make the system fair and prevent abuse. Or else let us know very clearly we are not welcome here very early on so we dont waste our lives chasing a mirage.

End of rant

Iatiam

[srisri]

Hi I have been following this thread for a long time and have rarely posted, I prefer to side with Spec on this matter, my main reason is this thread is specifically for predictions and calculations and if we bring in emotions or passion we might lose the objective. If you want to provide a place for venting frustrations I recommend a new thread be created to discuss matters on immigration fixing.

[Nishant_imt]

Q and Spec - You both are the pillars on which this building stands... half of us will understand what Q is saying and other half only comprehends what Spec has to say. You two make this a functioning brain like a left and a right hemisphere. I don't understand this immigration calculation bull much, unlike you fine folks, but just never give up on this forum and your opinions.... I don't know if you understand this, but a lot of us folks are hanging by a thread because of this forum.... every day, every week, every month and every year, there is no other site to give us a practical picture but this one... and if I may, this forum is practically two of you. I don't know if I make sense, but I somehow read Spec loosing heart here. Please don't.

[hope21]

Q and Spec - You both are the pillars on which this building stands... half of us will understand what Q is saying and other half only comprehends what Spec has to say. You two make this a functioning brain like a left and a right hemisphere. I don't understand this immigration calculation bull much, unlike you fine folks, but just never give up on this forum and your opinions.... I don't know if you understand this, but a lot of us folks are hanging by a thread because of this forum.... every day, every week, every month and every year, there is no other site to give us a practical picture but this one... and if I may, this forum is practically two of you. I don't know if I make sense, but I somehow read Spec loosing heart here. Please don't.

I concur, you both (Spec and Q) are right from your perspective, we need intellect and wisdom that you both have. There will be disagreements but we need to overcome that, we need to stick around, you guys are precious...keep sharing your thoughts in spite of few differences.

[qesehmk]

srisri and nishant - I think pointing out that country caps are the culprit is pretty much part of calculations and predictions.

No amount of further calculations are going to do any of you any good until country caps are removed.

I do smell hypocracy from Spec because he has never supported removal of country caps. I am just calling it out. If it hurts him/her - so be it. But this discussion is very much part of calculations and predictions.


Hi I have been following this thread for a long time and have rarely posted, I prefer to side with Spec on this matter, my main reason is this thread is specifically for predictions and calculations and if we bring in emotions or passion we might lose the objective. If you want to provide a place for venting frustrations I recommend a new thread be created to discuss matters on immigration fixing.


Q and Spec - You both are the pillars on which this building stands... half of us will understand what Q is saying and other half only comprehends what Spec has to say. You two make this a functioning brain like a left and a right hemisphere. I don't understand this immigration calculation bull much, unlike you fine folks, but just never give up on this forum and your opinions.... I don't know if you understand this, but a lot of us folks are hanging by a thread because of this forum.... every day, every week, every month and every year, there is no other site to give us a practical picture but this one... and if I may, this forum is practically two of you. I don't know if I make sense, but I somehow read Spec loosing heart here. Please don't.

[march1612]

This forum has always provided me a realist view of my green card journey. To be precise, where I stand in the green card queue.

The predictions here were always backed with numbers and there is credibility attached to the predictions we get from Spec and Q.

These days I can hardly find people who have the intellect, wisdom and knowledge supported by data.

Spec and Q, please continue to guide us and we need your help.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Man if its not going to move past March 2009, it sux. I am at EB2 05/22/2009. I'm happy for people who will benefit from 3 month advancement but it really sux. I'll have to wait for 2 more years. 1 year to get date current and then 1 year to go thru all the process till I get my card in hand.
I would'nt be that pessimistic. Given that EB3ROW demand has slowed down to a trickle and only about 2500 EB3I PI, I see a EB3 SO wave pushing EB2I through May2009 this FY, unless CO opts to send that SO to EB1.

[Sept2009eb2]

I don’t support per country cap removal. I missed out on applying for 485 twice and I don’t know when I will get my GC either. But I still do not support removal of the per country cap. If it is removed, the rest of the world will suffer and the US will become India/China.

If I wanted to live in India or China, I will move there.

I really don’t think it is right to call anyone out in this thread.
If you can’t predict then thats OK.

You just says this is your best guess. I don’t expect all your predictions to come true.

I really do like and follow this thread and appreciate all the work people have put in to trying to predict dates. Calling a person’s prediction out as wrong is OK.. but this sounded to me like a personal attack which is not acceptable... sorry if I sounded rude.





srisri and nishant - I think pointing out that country caps are the culprit is pretty much part of calculations and predictions.

No amount of further calculations are going to do any of you any good until country caps are removed.

I do smell hypocracy from Spec because he has never supported removal of country caps. I am just calling it out. If it hurts him/her - so be it. But this discussion is very much part of calculations and predictions.

[4WatItsWorth]

Spec,

Nothing wrong with disagreements over facts. Our disagreements are over preferences it seems. You don't seem to see anything unjust with country quotas. Tell me if I am wrong.

I am not sure what's wrong with acting in self interest. I also do not understand how not speaking for FB (when this site is mostly dedicated to EB) is hypocracy!!

Looks like my second last post hit home Spec! If you work for State Dept, you need to give it a good think... how unjust it is for Indians that are 1/6th of world population to be taking a slow train while smaller nations zip by! I personally think State Dept still lives with the cold war mentality.

If all these years of calculations have taught me one thing - then it is that the "Country Quota" is the #1 evil for EB immigration. Period. Speaking about it is very much in line with the purpose of this thread and site.

While we do provide calculations and objective information. It is important that we also remain a community. We can't fault people for ranting because everybody needs a vent. Their children are in danger of aging out. They have been living in freaking apartment for decades. Renewing licenses and taking shit from MVDs all over the US. Taking shit at work from less capable people. Being underpaid as much as 50% for the kind of work they delivery.

So lets be tolerant and objective. You have been a great resource to folks on this forum. I have tremendous respect for you. But as you said - we have to disagree on this topic it seems.Q, I cannot agree more! Thank you for standing up and looking out for the average Joes like me. If it werenÂ’t for the country caps, I wouldnÂ’t be stuck on a temporary visa, working at half my potential in a dead-end job for more than a decade with still no end in sight. The fear of my child aging out looks more real everyday. No amount prediction wizardry can compensate for the lack of calling country-caps an evil they are. Sorry if I sound blunt but thatÂ’s how I feel.

[Sept2009eb2]

I for one do not support the per country cap removal.
If the cap is removed, it will hurst the rest of the world.
It will also make the US more like India/China. If I wanted to live there, I would have gone to those countries.

It is also not fair to call one person out on a public forum. Just saying.

[Sept2009eb2]

I don’t support per country cap removal. Removing it will
* hurt the rest of the world
* make American like India/China - if I wanted to live there, I would not come to the US

And it’s not fair to call one person out for having a personal opinion in a public forum. Just saying.

[godhapaiya]

Just had a quick question on i485 pending inventory report released on April 2018. How does the report show ~6000 pending I485 applications for EB-2 India 2008 when the June 2018 VB final action dates are at Dec 2008? Shouldn't 2008 be cleared completely?

Also why are there pending I485 applications from 2001 to 2007?

[lville]

Q, I cannot agree more! Thank you for standing up and looking out for the average Joes like me. If it werenÂ’t for the country caps, I wouldnÂ’t be stuck on a temporary visa, working at half my potential in a dead-end job for more than a decade with still no end in sight. The fear of my child aging out looks more real everyday. No amount prediction wizardry can compensate for the lack of calling country-caps an evil they are. Sorry if I sound blunt but thatÂ’s how I feel.

I think country cap is necessary or else there will tons of just Indians and Chinese people here migrating. The way it is structured is to balance out immigration. It affects us bcuz we have huge number flowing in from India and china. In reality if one looks from American perspective they only want talented individuals poring in and what other labor force that is needed to build this country. But bcuz of porous border and lax immigration control there's lot of ill-legals and tier 4 and tier 5 white collar workers from Indian and China coming in (Very few Tier 1 talent). We should just be happy there's a country like USA to go to. No other country on planet has this amount of opportunity for growth and prosperity available to immigrants (at least this was the case for many years, may be it has dried now).

Imagine if India was a growth hub and there was no per country limit and all we got was influx from Bangladesh/Pakistan instead of talent from other deserving countries.

[newyorker123]

Lets lighten the discussions with a question.
Lets say I am with company A on H1b - visa/I-94 is stamped until 2020.
Lets say I moved to company B with only a H1b transfer receipt. After 2-3 months, H1b transfer is either pending or I get an RFE.
At this stage, can I move to

- a new company C with H1b transfer - with few paystubs from company B ?
Will the RFE impact this transfer ? What will happen of Employer B's petition ?

- back to company A which has a valid H1b in my name (assuming they do not revoke it - not sure if thats possible) ?
Will the RFE impact this transfer ? What will happen of employer B's petition ?

Has anybody been in above situations ?
Thanks

[qesehmk]

All I can say is that Indians and Chinese are no more or no less worthy of coming to US than any other nationality. America is a land of equal opportunity, land of the free and home of the brave. And I truly believe that. The current country quotas start Immigrant experience on the wrong footing.


I think country cap is necessary or else there will tons of just Indians and Chinese people here migrating. The way it is structured is to balance out immigration. It affects us bcuz we have huge number flowing in from India and china. In reality if one looks from American perspective they only want talented individuals poring in and what other labor force that is needed to build this country. But bcuz of porous border and lax immigration control there's lot of ill-legals and tier 4 and tier 5 white collar workers from Indian and China coming in (Very few Tier 1 talent). We should just be happy there's a country like USA to go to. No other country on planet has this amount of opportunity for growth and prosperity available to immigrants (at least this was the case for many years, may be it has dried now).

Imagine if India was a growth hub and there was no per country limit and all we got was influx from Bangladesh/Pakistan instead of talent from other deserving countries.


I don’t support per country cap removal. I missed out on applying for 485 twice and I don’t know when I will get my GC either. But I still do not support removal of the per country cap. If it is removed, the rest of the world will suffer and the US will become India/China.

If I wanted to live in India or China, I will move there.

I really don’t think it is right to call anyone out in this thread.
If you can’t predict then thats OK.

You just says this is your best guess. I don’t expect all your predictions to come true.

I really do like and follow this thread and appreciate all the work people have put in to trying to predict dates. Calling a person’s prediction out as wrong is OK.. but this sounded to me like a personal attack which is not acceptable... sorry if I sounded rude.

[AceMan]

All I can say is that Indians and Chinese are no more or no less worthy of coming to US than any other nationality. America is a land of equal opportunity, land of the free and home of the brave. And I truly believe that. The current country quotas start Immigrant experience on the wrong footing.


Thought leaving trackitt forums and coming here to concentrate on predictions and numbers here. But occasional spicing with sensible and healthy arguments always welcome.

Now with due respect I have to disagree with your statement here. We cannot quantify the worth of a person based on his wait time for a GC in another country. We are just bound by the defined rules of an Alien country of which we are trying to be a part of.

So while the rules appear to be unjust from our perspective, that is what we have been dealt with. While people have been trying to change the rule, the demarcations for legal and illegal immigration are being purposely ignored to create a different perception. Based on the report I shared earlier we have close to 306 K primaries of which the queue gets thinner once in a while, this number is less than 10 % of the illegal crowd and does not have a clout or the ability to be a pressure group.

You can just see the kind of aggression against H4EAD by people who we think as our own will make this crab mentality.

[qesehmk]

I am not quantifying the worth of any one person. I am just saying current quota system is creating a discriminatory effect on bigger countries.

Of course we are playing by rules and we should. But develop a free mind my friend. Appeasement will not get anybody anywhere. Only you can stand for yourself.



Thought leaving trackitt forums and coming here to concentrate on predictions and numbers here. But occasional spicing with sensible and healthy arguments always welcome.

Now with due respect I have to disagree with your statement here. We cannot quantify the worth of a person based on his wait time for a GC in another country. We are just bound by the defined rules of an Alien country of which we are trying to be a part of.

So while the rules appear to be unjust from our perspective, that is what we have been dealt with. While people have been trying to change the rule, the demarcations for legal and illegal immigration are being purposely ignored to create a different perception. Based on the report I shared earlier we have close to 306 K primaries of which the queue gets thinner once in a while, this number is less than 10 % of the illegal crowd and does not have a clout or the ability to be a pressure group.

You can just see the kind of aggression against H4EAD by people who we think as our own will make this crab mentality.

[oraclept]

I for one do not support the per country cap removal.
If the cap is removed, it will hurst the rest of the world.
It will also make the US more like India/China. If I wanted to live there, I would have gone to those countries.

It is also not fair to call one person out on a public forum. Just saying.


Just saying having reservations on talent ..is also not fair .. India and China has lot of us companies .. ex Microsoft google Apple etc ..Afghanistan doesn’t have it ...some one from India with 15 years exp .. doesn’t get green card in his life time .. even after paying taxes .. and maintaining status...some holy dove from South America with 2 years exp gets green card in less than year ... not fair ..


Also I was told india is not 1 race or caste or religion or language . How would you justify diversity in that case ? Some people are as fair as Europeans and some are as colored as Africans .. some as similar looks as Asians..

[Sept2009eb2]

Life itself is descrimination

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4K5fbQ1-zps


I am not quantifying the worth of any one person. I am just saying current quota system is creating a discriminatory effect on bigger countries.

Of course we are playing by rules and we should. But develop a free mind my friend. Appeasement will not get anybody anywhere. Only you can stand for yourself.

[Sept2009eb2]

Next people will say we are discriminating against people from underdeveloped countries like Mexico, Somalia, etc
Also people choose to come here because the pay is good. Let’s see if anyone will move here if they don’t get paid well.

Since you said you heard India has many religions races etc, let me tell you end of the day we are all Indian.
And the discrimination is based on country of birth. If someone is European but born in India, they will face same descrimination. Also I know Indian citizens who were born in the Middle East who fall in the Middle East country cap and got GC in 6 months. One person was working for me and I initiated his GC at our company.

Let’s get to the most important part. We are not talented because we are in IT. My job does not require talent. I am sure kids who graduate in the next 10 years will be able to replace me soon. I am definitely one of the better employees at my company


QUOTE=oraclept;59537]Just saying having reservations on talent ..is also not fair .. India and China has lot of us companies .. ex Microsoft google Apple etc ..Afghanistan doesn’t have it ...some one from India with 15 years exp .. doesn’t get green card in his life time .. even after paying taxes .. and maintaining status...some holy dove from South America with 2 years exp gets green card in less than year ... not fair ..


Also I was told india is not 1 race or caste or religion or language . How would you justify diversity in that case ? Some people are as fair as Europeans and some are as colored as Africans .. some as similar looks as Asians..[/QUOTE]

[qesehmk]

Very true and so it is important that we do not perpetuate that any further.

If we did nothing then there wouldn't be handicapped or pregnant mom access in buses, buildings or parking spaces. We could simply tell them .... deal with it. This is life.

Life itself is descrimination

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=4K5fbQ1-zps

[oraclept]

Next people will say we are discriminating against people from underdeveloped countries like Mexico, Somalia, etc
Also people choose to come here because the pay is good. Let’s see if anyone will move here if they don’t get paid well.

Since you said you heard India has many religions races etc, let me tell you end of the day we are all Indian.
And the discrimination is based on country of birth. If someone is European but born in India, they will face same descrimination. Also I know Indian citizens who were born in the Middle East who fall in the Middle East country cap and got GC in 6 months. One person was working for me and I initiated his GC at our company.

Let’s get to the most important part. We are not talented because we are in IT. My job does not require talent. I am sure kids who graduate in the next 10 years will be able to replace me soon. I am definitely one of the better employees at my company


QUOTE=oraclept;59537]Just saying having reservations on talent ..is also not fair .. India and China has lot of us companies .. ex Microsoft google Apple etc ..Afghanistan doesn’t have it ...some one from India with 15 years exp .. doesn’t get green card in his life time .. even after paying taxes .. and maintaining status...some holy dove from South America with 2 years exp gets green card in less than year ... not fair ..


Also I was told india is not 1 race or caste or religion or language . How would you justify diversity in that case ? Some people are as fair as Europeans and some are as colored as Africans .. some as similar looks as Asians..[/QUOTE]


I hope you stick to point of diversity.. The Goal is diversity... Not how poor or well.. I thought there was already Family, diversity lottery and refugee visas for that.
Its very sad people near to their GC.. dont care about trouble faced by other indians.
You just discredited the diversity I mentioned in india.
You just discredited some one having 15 years of exp waiting for his life vs 2 years exp getting GC in less than year..

What is the solution ? people from india die here working ?
Just have people from india leave the country after working, paying taxes and raising children for 15 years ?
What is funny EB visas are only 14% of 1 million.. and on top of it dependents are counted.

I mentioned that spirit of law is not what it appears.. I said people who are born in india are as fair as Europeans, as colored as africans and as same as Asians I was not talking about Europeans or Africans born in india.
This generation of diversified Indians aspiring for dreams in US are heavily discriminated under disguise of law.
From high level Just see thomas kurian@oracle and Ajay pal@mastercard their appearances color and languages are completely different.
There are so many distinguished achievers from all religions and colours from india. Now you put them all in 1 bucket and say goal of diversity is achieved where talent has to be recognized.

Life is not fair.. I agree. Atleast to my knowledge.. entrepreneurship of indians in US are killed in infant stage....There will no more Jyothi bansals.

Not everyone is IT or your kind of IT and same as what you think.

I dont want to go beyond this. As this thread is to discuss more about patterns..

[almost]

Gurus,
My PD is May 1 2009 and i received the below email from USCIS:
"
There has been a recent processing action taken on your case.

Receipt Number: SRC179XXXXXX7

Application Type: I765, APPLICATION FOR EMPLOYMENT AUTHORIZATION

Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

On February 22, 2017, the Post Office delivered your new card for Receipt Number SRC179XXXXXX7, to the address that you gave us. The tracking number assigned is UNAVAILABLE.
"
Same email was received for the Mrs' application as well.

Now, this was already sent last year when the EAD was renewed last and card sent out, so i imagine there is some sort of activity on the file now. My question is, has anyone else encountered anything like this and any other insight anyone may have.
Thanks in advance

[Umesh1209]

May be triggered by an error? I remember receiving similar email last year or year before.

My pd is 21 dec 2009. My wife and I received a similar mail yesterday

[asankaran]

I got similar message yesterday for myself and today for my wife. My PD is Mar 2010 (EB2 India)

[almost]

I got similar message yesterday for myself and today for my wife. My PD is Mar 2010 (EB2 India)

More Update: Today morning I got a text saying

"Your case SRCXX is now updated. Check 'My case status' at www.uscis.gov."

When i try logging in then the site is comes as "cannot be reached"....... there goes the day in anxiety :D

[srimurthy]

More Update: Today morning I got a text saying

"Your case SRCXX is now updated. Check 'My case status' at www.uscis.gov."

When i try logging in then the site is comes as "cannot be reached"....... there goes the day in anxiety :D

A system trigger of all approved or closed cases in the previous year I guess. As I got a week back H4 EAD card re-approval case notice that was approved sometime in late 2017.

[texas_]

Can anyone guide me referring to any good attorney who successfully applied for 140 without filing perm

[almost]

A system trigger of all approved or closed cases in the previous year I guess. As I got a week back H4 EAD card re-approval case notice that was approved sometime in late 2017.

Thanks Srimurthy. Was finally able to log in, with bated breath, and it turned out to be nothing. Probably one of those things that happened a couple of years back when their system went nuts... Back to sleep mode again ;)

[jackbrown_890]

Thanks Srimurthy. Was finally able to log in, with bated breath, and it turned out to be nothing. Probably one of those things that happened a couple of years back when their system went nuts... Back to sleep mode again ;)

I also got email update about my (+dependent) last EAD renewal. Both were renewed in early 2017. This is weird. My PD is Sep. 09 (EB2).
Is it possible someone from USCIS is reviewing our application and accessed our accounts to check our current EAD status?
I do think most probably it is a system glitch. The timing was weird too. I got emails last week, late night/early morning. And I got text update on Sunday night and early Monday morning.

[march1612]

Is it possible that this is update to 485's who have priority date before May 2010 EB2-I and update could be to grant EAD only 1 year as the EB2-I dates might move to May 2010?

Just a thought!!

[msbmsb]

Is it possible that this is update to 485's who have priority date before May 2010 EB2-I and update could be to grant EAD only 1 year as the EB2-I dates might move to May 2010?

Just a thought!!

I doubt it. Although anything is possible.

However a similar system cleanup has occurred earlier about 2 years ago, which had resulted in everyone with activity on EADs in the past year getting a notification at the same time. I suspect this is what was going on this time around as well.

[msbmsb]

Is it possible that this is update to 485's who have priority date before May 2010 EB2-I and update could be to grant EAD only 1 year as the EB2-I dates might move to May 2010?

Just a thought!!

I suspect this is just a cleanup of their system. This happend two years back as well.

Howver anything is possible :)

[almost]

I also got email update about my (+dependent) last EAD renewal. Both were renewed in early 2017. This is weird. My PD is Sep. 09 (EB2).
Is it possible someone from USCIS is reviewing our application and accessed our accounts to check our current EAD status?
I do think most probably it is a system glitch. The timing was weird too. I got emails last week, late night/early morning. And I got text update on Sunday night and early Monday morning.

The sequence is pretty much the same for me too. Got the emails Saturday afternoon for notification on card production with dates in early last year and then the texts came in today morning wee hours notifying of updates made to file. Unless it is a system wide glitch, it does seem like some touched the file (hopefully with good intentions as nowadays they seem to be messing people's lives for no reason sometimes.

[almost]

Is it possible that this is update to 485's who have priority date before May 2010 EB2-I and update could be to grant EAD only 1 year as the EB2-I dates might move to May 2010?

Just a thought!!

Maybe. With May 1st as my EB2-I date, I would be expecting something to happen in the next few months. Not sure what you mean by issuing EAD only 1 year as I already have an EAD approved in feb 2017 valid till feb 2019.

[march1612]

USCIS approves EAD for only 1 year for those whose priority date is current or will be current. rest all will get EAD with 2 years validity.

[montyp80]

Veterans on the forum, how reliable are these numbers (directly from the horse's mouth)

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/Count_of_Approved_I-140_I-360_and_I-526_Petitions_as_of_April_20_2018_with_a_Priority_ Date_On_or_After_May_2018.PDF

[jackbrown_890]

USCIS approves EAD for only 1 year for those whose priority date is current or will be current. rest all will get EAD with 2 years validity.

Yes, usually they do. But hasn't been always the case for us. One time they approved ours for one year only. We were not close to being current. Somehow the year after that they separated mine and my wife's approvals so we both have different EAD start/end dates and also, that year and year after that, they approved my wife's ead for 1 year only and mine for 2 years. And after that they have approved both of our EADs for two years. It seems like sometimes it depends on the knowledge (or even mood) of the processing officer.

[Jagan01]

Veterans on the forum, how reliable are these numbers (directly from the horse's mouth)

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/Count_of_Approved_I-140_I-360_and_I-526_Petitions_as_of_April_20_2018_with_a_Priority_ Date_On_or_After_May_2018.PDF

Its most likely reliable. Do yo think its on the higher side ?

Think about the number of H1Bs that get approved each year. Most go to Indians and there are about 85k each year. EB2I PDs have not moved beyond 2010. So over 7 years a pile up of 217k is totally possible assuming 30k each year. I surely think there are at least more than 30k Indians among the 85k H1B that get approved each year.

[smuggymba]

I got similar message yesterday for myself and today for my wife. My PD is Mar 2010 (EB2 India)

I got same update as well; text and email. Maybe system error. My PD March 2010 EB2.

[march1612]

Its most likely reliable. Do yo think its on the higher side ?

Think about the number of H1Bs that get approved each year. Most go to Indians and there are about 85k each year. EB2I PDs have not moved beyond 2010. So over 7 years a pile up of 217k is totally possible assuming 30k each year. I surely think there are at least more than 30k Indians among the 85k H1B that get approved each year.

Do you think these are PERM counts? How does DOS have these numbers unless reported by USCIS ? and How does USCIS know these numbers unless people file their 485's?

USCIS has exact number only until May 2010 for EB2-I.

I think these numbers are total number of EB2 green cards approved until May 2018 for all previous years until YTD.

I am trying to find our source of these numbers.

[derekjbj]

Do you think these are PERM counts? How does DOS have these numbers unless reported by USCIS ? and How does USCIS know these numbers unless people file their 485's?

USCIS has exact number only until May 2010 for EB2-I.

I think these numbers are total number of EB2 green cards approved until May 2018 for all previous years until YTD.

I am trying to find our source of these numbers.

This # is all immigrant petitions including I-140 ordered by priority date that occurs AFTER the May 2018 Visa bulletin. USCIS should have this count by priority date, shouldn't they?

[gten20]

I think country cap is necessary or else there will tons of just Indians and Chinese people here migrating. The way it is structured is to balance out immigration. It affects us bcuz we have huge number flowing in from India and china. In reality if one looks from American perspective they only want talented individuals poring in and what other labor force that is needed to build this country. But bcuz of porous border and lax immigration control there's lot of ill-legals and tier 4 and tier 5 white collar workers from Indian and China coming in (Very few Tier 1 talent). We should just be happy there's a country like USA to go to. No other country on planet has this amount of opportunity for growth and prosperity available to immigrants (at least this was the case for many years, may be it has dried now).

Imagine if India was a growth hub and there was no per country limit and all we got was influx from Bangladesh/Pakistan instead of talent from other deserving countries.

Your argument is flawed.

[gten20]

All I can say is that Indians and Chinese are no more or no less worthy of coming to US than any other nationality. America is a land of equal opportunity, land of the free and home of the brave. And I truly believe that. The current country quotas start Immigrant experience on the wrong footing.

Yes. I agree 140K EB visas should be based on talent not diversity. USA has historically disliked every immigrant community.. be it Italians, Irish, African Americans, Latinos, East/South Asians. Eventually they get accepted after second or third generation. You have to fight injustice and call it what it is.. an unjust law! Yes, you do want diversity. There are FB and lottery visas for that, which are not based on TALENT!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Gurus,
My PD is May 1 2009 and i received the below email from USCIS:
"
There has been a recent processing action taken on your case.

Receipt Number: SRC179XXXXXX7

Application Type: I765, APPLICATION FOR EMPLOYMENT AUTHORIZATION

Your Case Status: Card/ Document Production

On February 22, 2017, the Post Office delivered your new card for Receipt Number SRC179XXXXXX7, to the address that you gave us. The tracking number assigned is UNAVAILABLE.
"
Same email was received for the Mrs' application as well.

Now, this was already sent last year when the EAD was renewed last and card sent out, so i imagine there is some sort of activity on the file now. My question is, has anyone else encountered anything like this and any other insight anyone may have.
Thanks in advance

Don't worry about it, I also got similar email and text alert also. I have got one similar last year also..I think every time they tweak the code and test their system it triggers random emails and alerts.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Veterans on the forum, how reliable are these numbers (directly from the horse's mouth)

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/Count_of_Approved_I-140_I-360_and_I-526_Petitions_as_of_April_20_2018_with_a_Priority_ Date_On_or_After_May_2018.PDF

This basically means that CO's oft repeated 'Unable to gauge the Demand' is bullshit. We know how many Pending AOS applications are in the pipeline and we know how many are outside the pipeline. We don't have to be rocket scientists to figure out that EB3I PD needs to be ahead of EB2I PD. Hopefully that is what we will see in the next bulletin.

[Jagan01]

Do you think these are PERM counts? How does DOS have these numbers unless reported by USCIS ? and How does USCIS know these numbers unless people file their 485's?

USCIS has exact number only until May 2010 for EB2-I.

I think these numbers are total number of EB2 green cards approved until May 2018 for all previous years until YTD.

I am trying to find our source of these numbers.The details clearly state that its the sum of pending I140 / I526 / I360. For EB2I most applications are coming from an approved I-140.

The only thing I am not sure about is whether they are counting the number twice for applicants that might have ported from EB3I to EB2I. I am just surprised to see north of 50k applicants pending for EB3I and that makes me think that may be they are counting the porters twice (once against EB3 and once against EB2).

[march1612]

The details clearly state that its the sum of pending I140 / I526 / I360. For EB2I most applications are coming from an approved I-140.

Thanks, This data clearly gives CO enough visibility of the demand available, all that he needs to figure out is unused numbers to move EB2 and EB3. I really do not understand why CO keeps saying he does not have visibility in identifying the demand and takes a conservative approach in moving the dates.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

The details clearly state that its the sum of pending I140 / I526 / I360. For EB2I most applications are coming from an approved I-140.

The only thing I am not sure about is whether they are counting the number twice for applicants that might have ported from EB3I to EB2I. I am just surprised to see north of 50k applicants pending for EB3I and that makes me think that may be they are counting the porters twice (once against EB3 and once against EB2).

I agree with you, I don't think they have a mechanism of knowing how many people have both EB2 and EB3 Approvals. So, my guess would be at least half of EB3 would be having EB2 Approval also.

[AceMan]

Thanks, This data clearly gives CO enough visibility of the demand available, all that he needs to figure out is unused numbers to move EB2 and EB3. I really do not understand why CO keeps saying he does not have visibility in identifying the demand and takes a conservative approach in moving the dates.



This information is the total demand till 2018. If you average it only for primaries we average to 5000 for EB3 India (Almost 11 years from July 2007 - April 2018). However for Eb2 I average jumps to little around 30 K for each year (May 2010 - April 2018). They have averaged the dependents to 1 for the year 2016 for EB2.


However the real fact would EB3 - I would be less than 3000 primaries for 2008-2009-2010 if we compare the perm data for those years along with EB2 I approvals till last month

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Veterans on the forum, how reliable are these numbers (directly from the horse's mouth)

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/Count_of_Approved_I-140_I-360_and_I-526_Petitions_as_of_April_20_2018_with_a_Priority_ Date_On_or_After_May_2018.PDF

If there are total 306K Primary Applicants, then there will be at least another 306K Dependents per the report. So, that is a total of 612K Applicants from India against a quota of 8400 Per Annum. Theoretically, it would take about 72 years for the last person to get GC!! Even assuming an SO of 10K every single year, it would still take 33 years to clear ALL the Indians!!!

[newyorker123]

This basically means that CO's oft repeated 'Unable to gauge the Demand' is bullshit. We know how many Pending AOS applications are in the pipeline and we know how many are outside the pipeline. We don't have to be rocket scientists to figure out that EB3I PD needs to be ahead of EB2I PD. Hopefully that is what we will see in the next bulletin.

Absolutely - Anyway to me, there has never been an ambiguity about CO's (or Admin's) intentions. It does not hurt them to be conservative and allot more visas. They don't because the Admin just doesn't want to. The entrepreneur rule is being rescinded - it was so harmless. Also plans to derail H4 EAD are delayed but being worked upon.

[montyp80]

Its most likely reliable. Do yo think its on the higher side ?

Think about the number of H1Bs that get approved each year. Most go to Indians and there are about 85k each year. EB2I PDs have not moved beyond 2010. So over 7 years a pile up of 217k is totally possible assuming 30k each year. I surely think there are at least more than 30k Indians among the 85k H1B that get approved each year.

These numbers are very low, specially EB3I, at one point I read reputed lawyer saying there are more than 250,000 people waiting in EB3I only.

What's mind boggling is there are onnly 60k (say 150k including dependents) primary applicants waiting in que as of today, and still EB3 is moving so slow!!!

[AceMan]

If there are total 306K Primary Applicants, then there will be at least another 306K Dependents per the report. So, that is a total of 612K Applicants from India against a quota of 8400 Per Annum. Theoretically, it would take about 72 years for the last person to get GC!! Even assuming an SO of 10K every single year, it would still take 33 years to clear ALL the Indians!!!

Dear, you are making the same assumption lot of organizations are doing to trick the gullible Indians in the employment queue.

EB2 - 216 K primaries 8 years. (A lot of them duplicates. It can be anywhere between 30-40%)

Eb3 -55 K primaries 11 years. (A lot of them are porters in 2009)

Absolute low demand in EB3-ROW and pretty low demand in EB2-ROW. Aggressive admin immigrant policies repudiating for new immigrants from ROW, which in turn helping Indian back loggers.

I had some documents which showed from PERM list that we have about 3000 primaries in EB3 India for 2009 and 2010. If the anticipated demand is low for 2008, then EB3 moves to 2010 end within a year. Similar to the 3 year movement we had from June 2017 to June 2018.

Lot of EB2 filers who had ported may use their original EB3 approval to do AOS. So from 2019 EB3 India will move forward with 8 year delay and EB2 India will move forward with 9 year delay.

The 33 year, 72 year stories is not the way these things work.

[nbk1976]

Your argument is flawed.

When you go shopping, do you buy from a store that has the most competitive prices? Most talent needed today is in IT or areas that use a lot of IT. India and China have the human reaources to supply that demand.

The consumer economy of the US has most basic things coming from China. What about that? Should we have a cap on that to be fair to other countries?

Employment based immigration was not setup to ensure diversity: it was there to import talent that is needed. However, family-based immigration is completely different. Diversity makes more sense there.

Here is the flaw in your reasoning: The Indians and Chinese are already here! They are here on H1, EAD, etc. The point is should tax-paying, hard-working, skilled workforce be subject to second-class existence for years and years? When you approve the I-140, shouldn’t a fair system allow residency after 5 years at least? If you want to limit immigration, don’t even allow PERM unless the backlog is cleared; but you can’t have folks in limbo for 10 or 15 years. That’s no “immigration”: that is “servitude”.

[gten20]

When you go shopping, do you buy from a store that has the most competitive prices? Most talent needed today is in IT or areas that use a lot of IT. India and China have the human reaources to supply that demand.

The consumer economy of the US has most basic things coming from China. What about that? Should we have a cap on that to be fair to other countries?

Employment based immigration was not setup to ensure diversity: it was there to import talent that is needed. However, family-based immigration is completely different. Diversity makes more sense there.

Here is the flaw in your reasoning: The Indians and Chinese are already here! They are here on H1, EAD, etc. The point is should tax-paying, hard-working, skilled workforce be subject to second-class existence for years and years? When you approve the I-140, shouldn’t a fair system allow residency after 5 years at least? If you want to limit immigration, don’t even allow PERM unless the backlog is cleared; but you can’t have folks in limbo for 10 or 15 years. That’s no “immigration”: that is “servitude”.

I think you replied to the wrong quote. The OP i replied to, was arguing for country cap. I am against country caps in EB which has caused this massive backlog.

[nbk1976]

I think you replied to the wrong quote. The OP i replied to, was arguing for country cap. I am against country caps in EB which has caused this massive backlog.

Yes, I am sorry: I meant my reply to be for the OP, and I know you were against the ridiculous idea of Indians and Chinese explosion into the US and the absurdity of denying other countries from entering. Who said Indians and Chinese are the smartest? :)

[march1612]

Dear, you are making the same assumption lot of organizations are doing to trick the gullible Indians in the employment queue.

EB2 - 216 K primaries 8 years. (A lot of them duplicates. It can be anywhere between 30-40%)

Eb3 -55 K primaries 11 years. (A lot of them are porters in 2009)

Absolute low demand in EB3-ROW and pretty low demand in EB2-ROW. Aggressive admin immigrant policies repudiating for new immigrants from ROW, which in turn helping Indian back loggers.

I had some documents which showed from PERM list that we have about 3000 primaries in EB3 India for 2009 and 2010. If the anticipated demand is low for 2008, then EB3 moves to 2010 end within a year. Similar to the 3 year movement we had from June 2017 to June 2018.

Lot of EB2 filers who had ported may use their original EB3 approval to do AOS. So from 2019 EB3 India will move forward with 8 year delay and EB2 India will move forward with 9 year delay.

The 33 year, 72 year stories is not the way these things work.

Greatly appreciate your Analysis.
The rapid movement of EB3 will allow 2009 ,2010 having duplicates to file AOS in EB3. Wouldn't this help EB2 move faster and catch up with EB3 with same delay years ?

[Immigrant]

Dear, you are making the same assumption lot of organizations are doing to trick the gullible Indians in the employment queue.

EB2 - 216 K primaries 8 years. (A lot of them duplicates. It can be anywhere between 30-40%)

Eb3 -55 K primaries 11 years. (A lot of them are porters in 2009)

Absolute low demand in EB3-ROW and pretty low demand in EB2-ROW. Aggressive admin immigrant policies repudiating for new immigrants from ROW, which in turn helping Indian back loggers.

I had some documents which showed from PERM list that we have about 3000 primaries in EB3 India for 2009 and 2010. If the anticipated demand is low for 2008, then EB3 moves to 2010 end within a year. Similar to the 3 year movement we had from June 2017 to June 2018.

Lot of EB2 filers who had ported may use their original EB3 approval to do AOS. So from 2019 EB3 India will move forward with 8 year delay and EB2 India will move forward with 9 year delay.

The 33 year, 72 year stories is not the way these things work.

Thanks Aceman.

1.) What prevents EB2C from porting to EB3C? Why will it be any different for India?

2.) Folks in EB2I who already filed would need interviews if they port. How much of a deterrent will this be.

Regards

[AceMan]

Thanks Aceman.

1.) What prevents EB2C from porting to EB3C? Why will it be any different for India?

2.) Folks in EB2I who already filed would need interviews if they port. How much of a deterrent will this be.

Regards


What we are forgetting is these are EB visa's and has to be sponsored by employers. There is nothing stopping you from downward porting if you are working with some mom and pop consulting firms.

Now for clarity I have to explain what porting is from EB3-EB2. It is basically a new petition applying for a new labor, new I-140 (attaching the priority date of the previous petition). So basically the employee can have 2 active petitions in the above scenario. Since this is for future employment, an employee can also have multiple petitions with multiple employers at this stage as well.


Downward porting in the same company from EB2-3. The employee already has an approved labor for EB2 which is a higher skill. So it seems the employer can file for EB3 for the same employee.

However there is a catch according to a corporate lawyer I had interacted with. The offered salary for Eb3 can be considerably less than EB2. So this can result in an unexpected consequence of getting the GC faster with a lower salary :-). This is even applicable for the porting too. If you had already ported and used EB3 to file AOS, the employer is required to pay the employee the salary specified in that petition. It depends on individual employers to enforce it though.

[AceMan]

Greatly appreciate your Analysis.
The rapid movement of EB3 will allow 2009 ,2010 having duplicates to file AOS in EB3. Wouldn't this help EB2 move faster and catch up with EB3 with same delay years ?


Eb3 and EB2 India will go hand in hand for a while, may be till first quarter end of 19. Then it has to be EB3 all the way. The numbers don't lie.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Dear, you are making the same assumption lot of organizations are doing to trick the gullible Indians in the employment queue.

EB2 - 216 K primaries 8 years. (A lot of them duplicates. It can be anywhere between 30-40%)

Eb3 -55 K primaries 11 years. (A lot of them are porters in 2009)

Absolute low demand in EB3-ROW and pretty low demand in EB2-ROW. Aggressive admin immigrant policies repudiating for new immigrants from ROW, which in turn helping Indian back loggers.

I had some documents which showed from PERM list that we have about 3000 primaries in EB3 India for 2009 and 2010. If the anticipated demand is low for 2008, then EB3 moves to 2010 end within a year. Similar to the 3 year movement we had from June 2017 to June 2018.

Lot of EB2 filers who had ported may use their original EB3 approval to do AOS. So from 2019 EB3 India will move forward with 8 year delay and EB2 India will move forward with 9 year delay.

The 33 year, 72 year stories is not the way these things work.

You are talking about hypothetical best case scenarios based on guess work, which could very well turn out to be true. But in this era, it is hyperbole rather than hypothesis that is ruling the roost.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

What we are forgetting is these are EB visa's and has to be sponsored by employers. There is nothing stopping you from downward porting if you are working with some mom and pop consulting firms.

Now for clarity I have to explain what porting is from EB3-EB2. It is basically a new petition applying for a new labor, new I-140 (attaching the priority date of the previous petition). So basically the employee can have 2 active petitions in the above scenario. Since this is for future employment, an employee can also have multiple petitions with multiple employers at this stage as well.


Downward porting in the same company from EB2-3. The employee already has an approved labor for EB2 which is a higher skill. So it seems the employer can file for EB3 for the same employee.

However there is a catch according to a corporate lawyer I had interacted with. The offered salary for Eb3 can be considerably less than EB2. So this can result in an unexpected consequence of getting the GC faster with a lower salary :-). This is even applicable for the porting too. If you had already ported and used EB3 to file AOS, the employer is required to pay the employee the salary specified in that petition. It depends on individual employers to enforce it though.

Sounds like advantage desi basement and mom/pop shops again! They always seem to find a way to be relevant :rolleyes:

[AceMan]

You are talking about hypothetical best case scenarios based on guess work, which could very well turn out to be true. But in this era, it is hyperbole rather than hypothesis that is ruling the roost.

These are hypothesis, the scenarios are mean possibilities and not necessarily the absolute best case. The guess work as you call, I believe is ignoring the current Admin's aggressive anti-immigrant policy.

Let us look at the reality from present. Every year we get 85K people in H1 minimum. The recent data shows we get about 7-8% people in L1A's going for EB1. We have 140 K GC available. The system is more or less designed to work efficiently when it was designed.

The 70 year story was the real hyperbole propagated by some groups who presented had great influence with the previous admin. It was just used to send cat among the Indian Immigrant pigeons.

So the best thing we can do, is we can be honest to the people who are following us. I have a Feb 2011 PD, which in the best case can be current within next 3 months, the average case within 1-2 years and worst case 3 years and above.

[smuggymba]

The 70 year story was the real hyperbole propagated by some groups who presented had great influence with the previous admin. It was just used to send cat among the Indian Immigrant pigeons. .

Looks like you're out of touch with reality. People are spending 11-12 years of their prime waiting for GC. Mine is March 2010 and I have EAD and I might get GC in 2-5 years...how the heck is that acceptable.

My colleague from brazil had same PD (we joined same company/same month); he's a US citizen since 1.5 -2 years. Your statement is nonsense. Let's not turn this forum into trackitt.

When I ask my friends with PD 2013 EB2 on when they think they will get GC.....they don't have an answer..so yes if there is NO spillover, the wait of 70 years is simple math. How can you depend on a variable to predict something for sure?

[Spectator]

However there is a catch according to a corporate lawyer I had interacted with. The offered salary for Eb3 can be considerably less than EB2. So this can result in an unexpected consequence of getting the GC faster with a lower salary :-). This is even applicable for the porting too. If you had already ported and used EB3 to file AOS, the employer is required to pay the employee the salary specified in that petition. It depends on individual employers to enforce it though.
This is incorrect for an EB2-EB3 downward porting scenario.

In a downward porting scenario, the EB3 I-140 is being applied for on the basis of a PERM that has already supported an EB2 I-140.

The EB3 I-140 is using the same PERM, which sets out both the minimum requirements and minimum wage for the position.

Regardless of whether an EB2 or EB3, or both I-140 are applied for, the I-140 application needs to meet the minimum requirements laid out in the PERM certification that supports it (Educational, Experience and Wage).

An EB3 I-140 would have to show a wage that was the higher of either the Prevailing Wage or the Offered Wage in the PERM.

The scenario you mention would happen only if a PERM was certified which did not meet EB2 requirements at the I-140 stage. Then it could have lower requirements and a lower Prevailing Wage.

By definition it would not be an EB2-EB3 downgrade. It's just an EB3 application.

It might also be considered fraudulent, if the employer was expecting the beneficiary to carry out the (unmentioned in the PERM) tasks associated with an EB2 application for a lower wage. Lower requirements might also cause it to fail at the recruitment stage, since more qualified applicants might apply for the position - a position probably inaccurately described.

There's no maximum requirements for applying under the EB3 category at the I-140 stage. Whatever category is used at the I-140 stage, the PERM must be an accurate description of the job offered and the minimum requirement for that job.

Even in a EB3-EB2 porting scenario, if ultimately, the I-485 is approved under EB2, the Prevailing Wage from that PERM and I-140 would be applicable.

Only if the beneficiary interfiled back to the EB3 and was approved under EB3, then theoretically, the Prevailing Wage from that PERM could be said to apply (but only for the position and duties in the EB3 I-140). Only an unscrupulous employer would use that, because the beneficiary would (presumably) actually be working at the EB2 level. In that case, they could argue the EB2 PW applies, or leave the employer.

[suninphx]

This is incorrect for an EB2-EB3 downward porting scenario.

In a downward porting scenario, the EB3 I-140 is being applied for on the basis of a PERM that has already supported an EB2 I-140.

The EB3 I-140 is using the same PERM, which sets out both the minimum requirements and minimum wage for the position.

Regardless of whether an EB2 or EB3, or both I-140 are applied for, the I-140 application needs to meet the minimum requirements laid out in the PERM certification that supports it (Educational, Experience and Wage).

An EB3 I-140 would have to show a wage that was the higher of either the Prevailing Wage or the Offered Wage in the PERM.

The scenario you mention would happen only if a PERM was certified which did not meet EB2 requirements at the I-140 stage. Then it could have lower requirements and a lower Prevailing Wage.

By definition it would not be an EB2-EB3 downgrade. It's just an EB3 application.

It might also be considered fraudulent, if the employer was expecting the beneficiary to carry out the (unmentioned in the PERM) tasks associated with an EB2 application for a lower wage. Lower requirements might also cause it to fail at the recruitment stage, since more qualified applicants might apply for the position - a position probably inaccurately described.

There's no maximum requirements for applying under the EB3 category at the I-140 stage. Whatever category is used at the I-140 stage, the PERM must be an accurate description of the job offered and the minimum requirement for that job.

Spec,

Is there any data which would tell us how many EB2C downgrade each year? My question is -what's stopping majority EB2C from downgrading?

[AceMan]

Looks like you're out of touch with reality. People are spending 11-12 years of their prime waiting for GC. Mine is March 2010 and I have EAD and I might get GC in 2-5 years...how the heck is that acceptable.

My colleague from brazil had same PD (we joined same company/same month); he's a US citizen since 1.5 -2 years. Your statement is nonsense. Let's not turn this forum into trackitt.

When I ask my friends with PD 2013 EB2 on when they think they will get GC.....they don't have an answer..so yes if there is NO spillover, the wait of 70 years is simple math. How can you depend on a variable to predict something for sure?


It is what the rule says, with the country quota which the hard reality you are talking about 11 years wait. The group extrapolated the current wait time came up with the hyperbole of 70 years. You cannot take an isolated case of person from Brazil, Uganda or Pakistan and present your case as unfair which is not going to fly for people.


You have EAD, I don't have one, Another person after being here for 9 years got his H1 renewal rejected. There are many hard realities around. So instead of calling my statement nonsense you can back up your statement with real facts to counter what I said. That way we can have an intelligent and sensible debates. I will not talk bad of trackitt as they provide a great avenue for sharing lot of information.


I am saying if you are with March 2010 PD, please don't propagate inaccurate and outright lies of information to people with PD after. A positive information gives hope to the people waiting.

Now for 2013 EB3 they don't have any information. So that doesn't mean you take the most pessimistic case and propagate it as the absolute fact and spread the misery. A sensible assumption would be to present a possibility of what is the range of the best case all the way to the worst case.


I will walk the talk I mentioned for the example your provided for EB2 2013.


For the last 8 years we have about 216,000 primaries in Eb2. You have to account for about 30% of duplicate applications, porter etc, which would bring down this number to around 150,000. USCIS uses an average of 1 dependent for EB2 filers. So we have an educated prediction of about 300,000 people in EB2 till April 2018 for India which would be about 35,000 people a year.


The worst scenario => 2900 a year would result in taking 12 years to clear 2009, 12 years 2010, 12 years 2011, 12 years in 2012. He don't have to worry as he would be most probably wont need it, by the time his PD in 2013 comes.

The pessimistic scenario => 5000 a year would result in 8 years 2009, would take 32-35 years for 2013

The reasonable possible scenario (Starting FY 2018) => 12000 a year would result in 3 years 2009, would take close to 10 years from now. However lot of people by this time realize that EB3 is going to be faster, so 2012-13 guys will start to downgrade and get a faster date. This thins the original queue as well.


However the scenario I am seeing is for both EB2 and 3 together for 2018, 2019 and 2020 is 20-25 K visa's. The demand from ROW is definitely going to be low while this admin is in power till Jan 2021. We can only predict what is in the near future.

[AceMan]

The scenario you mention would happen only if a PERM was certified which did not meet EB2 requirements at the I-140 stage. Then it could have lower requirements and a lower Prevailing Wage.

By definition it would not be an EB2-EB3 downgrade. It's just an EB3 application.



These are the people who are the most at this point of time who might be looking to utilize there Eb3 petition

[gcvijay]

Ace\Q\Spec

Your guidance in this forum is of immense help. I have a scenario where my PD is July 2nd 2009 and I'm hoping to see if i would get current in FY 2019 but very much confused which one I should go for. My Eb3 is under my ex employer and reached out to them and they said they haven't cancelled my i-140 and ready to process my Eb3 if it becomes current and then join them. my current employer holds my eb2 with PD 2009. Assuming i apply for EAD for both Eb2 and Eb3 and then choose whichever one comes first or can i join my ex employer after my Eb3 is approved. I'm totally not sure how this works or should I just stick with my current employer and proceed with EAD and wait for GC under Eb2 or is there harm in processing both the applications if EB2\EB3 reaches july 2009. What is the best possibility of EB2 reaching 2009 July? Appreciate your help\advice in this regards.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Is there any data which would tell us how many EB2C downgrade each year? My question is -what's stopping majority EB2C from downgrading?

There's no data as far as I know.

Early on, I think quite a few Chinese chased the best FAD, but it's not been consistent. They would interfile to EB3, then EB2 would become better, so they'd interfile back to EB2. The interfiling process takes time and they missed the window by the time USCIS actioned it .

For China, in the last 48 months:

EB2 better FAD than EB3 - 40%
EB3 better FAD than EB2 - 60%

It might change, since EB3-C FAD is now quite some way ahead of EB2. EB3 has been ahead of EB2 for 9 months now - since October 2017 - the equal longest run.

Some may not have the opportunity, some may be prepared to wait it out in one category or the other.

TBH, the Chinese situation is difficult to discern - they have their own forums (in Chinese) and the translations are imperfect, even if you spend the time finding and following them. I haven't looked in a long time.

I should add that all the Chinese cases I saw were with the same Company and the EB3 I-140 was using the same PERM for the same position as the EB2 I-140.

This may be very different to some Indian reverse porting, where many may already have an EB3 I-140, but with a different Company, for different responsibilities and based on a different PERM to the EB2.

Perhaps one or other needs a different name, since they are completely different situations.

[smuggymba]

It is what the rule says, with the country quota which the hard reality you are talking about 11 years wait. The group extrapolated the current wait time came up with the hyperbole of 70 years. You cannot take an isolated case of person from Brazil, Uganda or Pakistan and present your case as unfair which is not going to fly for people.


You have EAD, I don't have one, Another person after being here for 9 years got his H1 renewal rejected. There are many hard realities around. So instead of calling my statement nonsense you can back up your statement with real facts to counter what I said. That way we can have an intelligent and sensible debates. I will not talk bad of trackitt as they provide a great avenue for sharing lot of information.


I am saying if you are with March 2010 PD, please don't propagate inaccurate and outright lies of information to people with PD after. A positive information gives hope to the people waiting.

Now for 2013 EB3 they don't have any information. So that doesn't mean you take the most pessimistic case and propagate it as the absolute fact and spread the misery. A sensible assumption would be to present a possibility of what is the range of the best case all the way to the worst case.


I will walk the talk I mentioned for the example your provided for EB2 2013.


For the last 8 years we have about 216,000 primaries in Eb2. You have to account for about 30% of duplicate applications, porter etc, which would bring down this number to around 150,000. USCIS uses an average of 1 dependent for EB2 filers. So we have an educated prediction of about 300,000 people in EB2 till April 2018 for India which would be about 35,000 people a year.


The worst scenario => 2900 a year would result in taking 12 years to clear 2009, 12 years 2010, 12 years 2011, 12 years in 2012. He don't have to worry as he would be most probably wont need it, by the time his PD in 2013 comes.

The pessimistic scenario => 5000 a year would result in 8 years 2009, would take 32-35 years for 2013

The reasonable possible scenario (Starting FY 2018) => 12000 a year would result in 3 years 2009, would take close to 10 years from now. However lot of people by this time realize that EB3 is going to be faster, so 2012-13 guys will start to downgrade and get a faster date. This thins the original queue as well.


However the scenario I am seeing is for both EB2 and 3 together for 2018, 2019 and 2020 is 20-25 K visa's. The demand from ROW is definitely going to be low while this admin is in power till Jan 2021. We can only predict what is in the near future.

Please move to trackit; you will have more takers there. See you.

[AceMan]

Please move to trackit; you will have more takers there. See you.

Please, if the moderators have any difficulty in the way I post, they will let me know. If you have some valid information which can counter my points you please post them.

You have the option to ignore my post if you don't have anything to counter it.

[march1612]

If EB2-I and EB3-I move in parallel, How will the unused visas be managed assuming that there would be low demand in EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW & slow Interviews.

[qesehmk]

Please, if the moderators have any difficulty in the way I post, they will let me know. If you have some valid information which can counter my points you please post them.

You have the option to ignore my post if you don't have anything to counter it.

Smuggymba has been around a while and has seen this drama, so lets cut him some slack.

I appreciate you sticking to data while supporting your arguments. That's a good way to avoid personal commentary.

Let's keep it that way.

p.s. - My personal take - 70 years is definite hyperbole and your calculations seem a bit rosy to me. But realistically speaking even if the wait time is 15 years plus - that's an entire generation and most precious time lost in your lifetime. As such ... i always insist -- do not postpone anything waiting for a GC.

[AceMan]

Smuggymba has been around a while and has seen this drama, so lets cut him some slack.

I appreciate you sticking to data while supporting your arguments. That's a good way to avoid personal commentary.

Let's keep it that way.

p.s. - My personal take - 70 years is definite hyperbole and your calculations seem a bit rosy to me. But realistically speaking even if the wait time is 15 years plus - that's an entire generation and most precious time lost in your lifetime. As such ... i always insist -- do not postpone anything waiting for a GC.

Thank you for clarifying the same. I am in the forum to see the view points of different people in the journey to GC and how their opinions are formulated.
So just because I am waiting for 10 years with a 2011 PD, I feel it wrong that I give a unsubstantiated statement to another EB3 guy with 2015 PD "Oh, I waited for 9 years already, so you have to wait minimum of 10 years".

My calculations can be taken as my initial statement. I have been branded eternal optimist in another forum, but I always try to back up the possibility with the real numbers. It is more like an array of possibility.

So when I present this array, I intentionally pick an optimistic snapshot with the explanation why it is possible.

Now coming back to the point, if based on the demand, EB3 I can clear 10-15 K numbers in FY 18/19, it has a high possibility to go well into 2011. I also use the H4-EAD number which was put at around 84K as per December 2017 statistics, to get the minimum number of active primaries.


So using H4EAD as reference the exact number of Primaries from 2008-2017 is between 84,000 to 302,000 for both EB2 and 3 India.

So the range of actual filers will be a between 168000 - 604000 if we include 1 dependent per primary as specified in the last document.

So if I calculate the average number of filers per year for the last 11 years, I would say we average from 15000- 55000 people primaries and dependents for both (2 and 3) waiting.


Now we have the base of 6000 (2+3) visas a year to a potential of 25000 (arbitrary number for unused visas) a year.

We have seen the saving potential on Meryll investments website, use the same logic and put these numbers into calculation we get a range which can make sense for every body.

[SonaMoni77]

Eb3 and EB2 India will go hand in hand for a while, may be till first quarter end of 19. Then it has to be EB3 all the way. The numbers don't lie.

Aceman,

What do think about EB1 India? I rely a lot on your numbers.

I mean is there a chance hey can atleast progess a bit to somehwre between 2012 to 2018 in this year (before Oct VB)

[AceMan]

Aceman,

What do think about EB1 India? I rely a lot on your numbers.

I mean is there a chance hey can atleast progess a bit to somehwre between 2012 to 2018 in this year (before Oct VB)

For all practical purpose there is no body in the EB1 queue before 2015. Not discounting some isolated EB2/3 guys who did masters here along with similar people who move outside the country and came back as Managers and now qualifies for EB1.

So July bulletin at the very minimum should reach 1 Jan 2016.

[SonaMoni77]

For all practical purpose there is no body in the EB1 queue before 2015. Not discounting some isolated EB2/3 guys who did masters here along with similar people who move outside the country and came back as Managers and now qualifies for EB1.

So July bulletin at the very minimum should reach 1 Jan 2016.

Wow! I am in 2014 priority date for EB2->EB1B . That will be so awesome...Thank u Aceman...u r great!

[AceMan]

Wow! I am in 2014 priority date for EB2->EB1B . That will be so awesome...Thank u Aceman...u r great!

Hold your horses sir, I expect the dates to move strictly on the basis of the numbers on January 2018 PI with my reasoning for the same. It is purely under the control of CO.

I need to give a disclaimer that I had previously predicted that FY 17 EB3 I would end up with a March-April 2007 PD based on the number crunching. Not only it ended up in October 2006 but did not move at all for the first quarter of FY 18.

[Spectator]

I have to admit that EB1 for the rest of FY2018 has been bugging me, since movement has not been mentioned.

CO in his presentation showed that unused EB3 visas Fall Up to EB1

1342
Only when demand from EB1 has been satisfied can visa numbers Fall Down to EB2.

If EB2 wishes to benefit from any unused EB3 visas, then a prerequisite seems to be that EB1-India and EB1-China would first need to be made Current to encompass all possible demand in EB1.

Due to interview delays, it's possible, despite a large numbers of pending applications, that the demand in EB1 does not materialize within the FY and the visas can then Fall Down to EB2.

On the other hand, if CO does not make all of EB1 Current, then by his own logic, he cannot give any spare EB3 visas to EB2.

[srimurthy]

p.s. - My personal take - 70 years is definite hyperbole and your calculations seem a bit rosy to me. But realistically speaking even if the wait time is 15 years plus - that's an entire generation and most precious time lost in your lifetime. As such ... i always insist -- do not postpone anything waiting for a GC.

Makes it more difficult and possible for kids becoming ineligible to apply for 485 if they age out. So sad

[march1612]

I have to admit that EB1 for the rest of FY2018 has been bugging me, since movement has not been mentioned.

CO in his presentation showed that unused EB3 visas Fall Up to EB1

1342
Only when demand from EB1 has been satisfied can visa numbers Fall Down to EB2.

If EB2 wishes to benefit from any unused EB3 visas, then a prerequisite seems to be that EB1-India and EB1-China would first need to be made Current to encompass all possible demand in EB1.

Due to interview delays, it's possible, despite a large numbers of pending applications, that the demand in EB1 does not materialize within the FY and the visas can then Fall Down to EB2.

On the other hand, if CO does not make all of EB1 Current, then by his own logic, he cannot give any spare EB3 visas to EB2.

Thanks for information Spec.

Unless there is a change in process from new Administration. Based on Previous Administration's Executive Order, CO is obligated to use the Spillover within the current FY.
With the reference to this Executive order , filing dates are published in every Visa Bulletin.

Having said that, If EB1 is not current, he might be obligated by law ( unless it has been changed) to apply unused numbers to EB2-I.

[Hyperion]

On the other hand, if CO does not make all of EB1 Current, then by his own logic, he cannot give any spare EB3 visas to EB2.

If CO applies the same logic, Shouldn't he make EB3 current before moving the visas to EB1?

[Spectator]

Thanks for information Spec.

Unless there is a change in process from new Administration. Based on Previous Administration's Executive Order, CO is obligated to use the Spillover within the current FY.
With the reference to this Executive order , filing dates are published in every Visa Bulletin.

Having said that, If EB1 is not current, he might be obligated by law ( unless it has been changed) to apply unused numbers to EB2-I.
Well, if CO doesn't think there are enough spare visas to make EB1 Current, then he's not going to move the EB2-I FAD forward either.

If a case isn't current in the VB, it can't be approved.

Moving the date for the last month probably wouldn't help that much, because there's no time to send out RFEs, receive the reply and adjudicate the case. I'm not seeing much RFE action for 2009 cases at present.

[Spectator]

If CO applies the same logic, Shouldn't he make EB3 current before moving the visas to EB1?
Fair question - I deserved that.

EB3-I can't have any demand beyond April 2008 that can be realized in the FY. Tt would be beneficial if the FAD for EB3-I is pushed much further so that more than enough cases can be approved next year. We can't see a repeat, caused yet again by not moving Cut Off Dates early enough. I don't see that CO has much choice but to advance EB3-I, even if he pulls it back at the beginning of FY2019, when initially only limited numbers are available.

EB1 is different. There's potentially loads of demand between the current FAD of 01JAN12 and March 2018 when the FAD was last Current for EB1-IC. It probably more like March 2017 for most cases to cause demand, considering processing times.

EB1-IC were retrogressed because they had too much demand. The process, as outlined, requires that demand has a chance to be satisfied first.

[march1612]

Fair question - I deserved that.

EB3-I can't have any demand beyond April 2008 that can be realized in the FY. Tt would be beneficial if the FAD for EB3-I is pushed much further so that more than enough cases can be approved next year. We can't see a repeat, caused yet again by not moving Cut Off Dates early enough. I don't see that CO has much choice but to advance EB3-I, even if he pulls it back at the beginning of FY2019, when initially only limited numbers are available.

EB1 is different. There's potentially loads of demand between the current FAD of 01JAN12 and March 2018 when the FAD was last Current for EB1-IC. It probably more like March 2017 for most cases to cause demand, considering processing times.

EB1-IC were retrogressed because they had too much demand. The process, as outlined, requires that demand has a chance to be satisfied first.


So, the only source for EB2-I advancement is unused numbers from EB2-ROW. Not sure how many unused numbers are expected to be available in July.

[Jagan01]

EB1 is different. There's potentially loads of demand between the current FAD of 01JAN12 and March 2018 when the FAD was last Current for EB1-IC. It probably more like March 2017 for most cases to cause demand, considering processing times.

EB1-IC were retrogressed because they had too much demand. The process, as outlined, requires that demand has a chance to be satisfied first.

Spec,
Based on the latest pending inventory EB1I only has 4k of inventory. Not sure why you say "loads of demand" ? Don't you think that a demand of 4k might get fulfilled by the SO from EB1ROW ?

[suninphx]

Well, if CO doesn't think there are enough spare visas to make EB1 Current, then he's not going to move the EB2-I FAD forward either.

If a case isn't current in the VB, it can't be approved.

Moving the date for the last month probably wouldn't help that much, because there's no time to send out RFEs, receive the reply and adjudicate the case. I'm not seeing much RFE action for 2009 cases at present.

It's possible that CO is moving EB2I to Mar'09 solely based on EB2ROW spillover he is anticipating for this FY. He either doesn't think a) that EB3->Eb1->EB2 route is possible this FY or b) doesn't want to calculate that just yet. For any (already pending AOS) case to be comfortably greened this FY - RFE needs to be issued by Jul mid I guess.

[AceMan]

So, the only source for EB2-I advancement is unused numbers from EB2-ROW. Not sure how many unused numbers are expected to be available in July.

Unfortunately that is what is there for EB2 I as of July. However all is not lost, based on the RFE's reported by EB2 people for 2009. Most of them are Nebraska though, so there is a possibility of some Eb2 I usage.

I am optimistic that EB2 I will get much more numbers it received in the last 3 years.

[SonaMoni77]

I dont mind at all Aceman. I understand you are predicting since I asked you. I am ok either ways. Worst case Oct VB will let me file my AOS , so I am honestly fine. But I salute you guys optimism, calculative power and glad to be an audience.

[march1612]

Guru's , I am a newbie to calculate. Kindly correct me if I am wrong.Calculation is based on April 2018 inventory for 2018 FY.

EB1

54729-42596 (Oct-Jan)=12133
42596-12433 (Jan-Apr)=30163

Visa Available :40000-12133-30163= -2296 additional visa's needed to clear the backlog , clearly shows No spill over from EB1

EB2
48236-39686 (Oct-Jan)=8550
39686-24616 (Jan-Apr)=15070

Visa available:=40,000-8550-15070=16380 visa's available

EB3:
24639-17157(Oct-Jan)=7482
17157-8293(Jan-Apr)=14264

Visa Available:=40,000-7482-14264=18254 visa's available

EB4
2089-1480(Oct-Jan)=609
1480-1142(Jan-Apr)=338

Visa available:10,000-609-338=9053 visa's available

EB5:
1203-804(Oct-Jan)=399
804-615(Jan-Apr)=189

Visa Available:10,000-399-189=9412 visa's available

Total unused Visa's available: 53099-2296=50803 unused as of April 2018.

[Spectator]

Spec,
Based on the latest pending inventory EB1I only has 4k of inventory. Not sure why you say "loads of demand" ? Don't you think that a demand of 4k might get fulfilled by the SO from EB1ROW ?

Even as far back as January, CO reported that EB1-I had used 7k. That had probably risen to around 10k by the time retrogression was imposed. At that time, EB1C had already used 4.5k.

Retrogression was imposed to allow enough visas during the rest of the FY for Countries that had not already reached the 7% limit.

It's impossible to tell what the EB1 demand is from the April Inventory. It's at least 4k from India plus another 2k from China for cases not at Field Offices. Some interviews in EB1 have been carried out since retrogression. Policy dictates those cases be returned to TSC for final approval when visas become available. You can also add any CP cases, which for China may be significant. In the 6 months before retrogression, EB1-C used 1.5k EB1 CP visas.

I don't know how many spare visas people are expecting from EB3. I suspect most people think it's a figure far higher than reality will be.

[gten20]

Smuggymba has been around a while and has seen this drama, so lets cut him some slack.

I appreciate you sticking to data while supporting your arguments. That's a good way to avoid personal commentary.

Let's keep it that way.

p.s. - My personal take - 70 years is definite hyperbole and your calculations seem a bit rosy to me. But realistically speaking even if the wait time is 15 years plus - that's an entire generation and most precious time lost in your lifetime. As such ... i always insist -- do not postpone anything waiting for a GC.

Easier said than done, Q. :(

[Spectator]

Guru's , I am a newbie to calculate. Kindly correct me if I am wrong.Calculation is based on April 2018 inventory for 2018 FY.

EB1

54729-42596 (Oct-Jan)=12133
42596-12433 (Jan-Apr)=30163

Visa Available :40000-12133-30163= -2296 additional visa's needed to clear the backlog , clearly shows No spill over from EB1

EB2
48236-39686 (Oct-Jan)=8550
39686-24616 (Jan-Apr)=15070

Visa available:=40,000-8550-15070=16380 visa's available

EB3:
24639-17157(Oct-Jan)=7482
17157-8293(Jan-Apr)=14264

Visa Available:=40,000-7482-14264=18254 visa's available

EB4
2089-1480(Oct-Jan)=609
1480-1142(Jan-Apr)=338

Visa available:10,000-609-338=9053 visa's available

EB5:
1203-804(Oct-Jan)=399
804-615(Jan-Apr)=189

Visa Available:10,000-399-189=9412 visa's available

Total unused Visa's available: 53099-2296=50803 unused as of April 2018.

You can't really use the USCIS Inventory from April 2018. It's not like for like with previous reports because it no longer includes Field Office cases.
Also the USCIS Inventory only deals with AOS cases and doesn't include CP cases. Some categories and Countries have have very large CP usage. EB5 is almost all CP.

The best information we have is from CO's recent PP presentation.

That tells us that in the period October 2017 to March 2018 (H1), the following number of visas had been used:

This is basically a repeat of what I posted in post #2901

First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.

All Visa Issuances - October 2017 to March 2018

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total --- Left H2
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ---- 10,920
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ---- 20,448
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ---- 21,567
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ----- 4,926
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ----- 3,922

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ---- 61,783

DOS Figures above match previously published data.

[qesehmk]

Easier said than done, Q. :(
I have been there ... hence the wisdom of hindsight :)

Let's correct it --- do not TRY NOT TO postpone anything waiting for a GC.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3-I can't have any demand beyond April 2008 that can be realized in the FY. Tt would be beneficial if the FAD for EB3-I is pushed much further so that more than enough cases can be approved next year. We can't see a repeat, caused yet again by not moving Cut Off Dates early enough. I don't see that CO has much choice but to advance EB3-I, even if he pulls it back at the beginning of FY2019, when initially only limited numbers are available.



Hi Spec,

Being tired of watching and seeing EB3 visas continuously allocated to other categories, I finally moved to EB2I with a PD of Feb 2009. It's with the same company so either category will work for me. I have a feeling that date may be current for EB2I and EB3I at the same time.

Based on your statement, it seems EB3-I needs to really move forward and can probably catch up or surpass EB2I even in this FY. No wonder CO did not give any date for EB3I. Based on the I-140 data that was released, I am certain the bottom is going to fall off EB3I.

But then EB3s and EB1s all need interviews which cannot give them GCs this FY. Can CO use this logic to justify his movement of EB2I WITHOUT moving EB1I? After all, they are the only ones who do not need interviews. Otherwise there will surely be wastage.

[smuggymba]

I have been there ... hence the wisdom of hindsight :)

Let's correct it --- do not TRY NOT TO postpone anything waiting for a GC.

Don't let GC hold you back; there's not a whole lot to lose except a dollar amount.

I'm a little lucky with EAD and because of that my wife is working (she started her MBA when she was on H4). We bought our house few months before getting EAD (On H1) and the job I have now is probably the one I've had even if I had GC, so not much impact other than left a Sr Manager promotion opportunity last month and travel pain on AP.

That's being said, I have friends who have bought houses/settled down on H1 with a PD of 2013. Some, however, are not willing to settle down because of this uncertainty. The way I explain to them is there's a lot to gain and not much to lose to improve the quality of life.

Let's say life is uncertain with PD of 2013/14; you can still settle down in your city of choice; the worst that can happen is you will have to sell your house at 10-15% loss. Your belongings will ship with you if you have to go to India. Cars can be sold pretty quickly with little lost. So, you get to enjoy life and the worst that can happen is you lose 30-60K, and it's just money. Imagine the quality of life/enjoyment/memories you'll make in that time.

I'm on AP on still like to travel for vacations despite the pain associated with which flight you get to select and which country might slap you with a transit visa (Mexico visa was a pain; you have to apply for tourist visa if you have AP and mexican embassy is not the easiest to deal with). When we go to India, we still stop in Europe for a quick vacation (again, not Germany/Lufthansa etc) but it's doable.

so, don't let GC hold you back. Try to do what you would do if you had GC

Just my Thu morning deep thoughts :)

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

Being tired of watching and seeing EB3 visas continuously allocated to other categories, I finally moved to EB2I with a PD of Feb 2009. It's with the same company so either category will work for me. I have a feeling that date may be current for EB2I and EB3I at the same time.
Quite possibly.


Based on your statement, it seems EB3-I needs to really move forward and can probably catch up or surpass EB2I even in this FY. No wonder CO did not give any date for EB3I. Based on the I-140 data that was released, I am certain the bottom is going to fall off EB3I.
I said last year that the EB3-I dates needed to be moved forward to allow enough time for cases to be ready for adjudication in FY2018 and avoid the situation we are now in.

I blame USCIS for for not allowing Filing Dates to be used. CO has been too conservative, but he has to tread a thin line with FAD because that date also allows approval of cases within the Cut Off Date. He also has very poor information from USCIS on upcoming demand.

Filing Dates were introduced specifically to allow filing and inventory control without approval.

CO now has a chance to subvert USCIS actions. Moving the FAD for EB3-I is essentially the same as the Filing date for the rest of the FY. No new applications can possibly be adjudicated in the time left in the FY and he has no worries of too many EB3-I approvals being made. USCIS cannot refuse to honor the Final Action Date.

I hope CO sticks it to USCIS and moves the dates for EB3-I a long way (several years). He can retrogress the FAD for October 2018, when the new allocation kicks in. CO will then have some idea of potential demand from EB-I in the future.


But then EB3s and EB1s all need interviews which cannot give them GCs this FY. Can CO use this logic to justify his movement of EB2I WITHOUT moving EB1I? After all, they are the only ones who do not need interviews. Otherwise there will surely be wastage.
Not all remaining EB1 need interviews. The April Inventory suggests that up to 5.6k EB1-India & China AOS cases exist that do not need an interview. In addition, there are likely a reasonable number of EB1-China CP cases that could be adjudicated.

I think this subject is exhausted - I won't comment on it again.

[redsox2009]

If Visa Bulletin is not out by tomorrow EOD, I think it is fair enough to assume there might be some bad news for EB2-I. EB2-ROW approvals are catching up with the supply.

[EB2-03252009]

If Visa Bulletin is not out by tomorrow EOD, I think it is fair enough to assume there might be some bad news for EB2-I. EB2-ROW approvals are catching up with the supply.

just saw on trackitt a person with pd 9-apr-2009 got rfe NSC. both NSC and TSC are consistent(dates) with RFEs

[EB3Iwaiting]

I hope CO sticks it to USCIS and moves the dates for EB3-I a long way (several years). He can retrogress the FAD for October 2018, when the new allocation kicks in. CO will then have some idea of potential demand from EB-I in the future.

Yes, I really hope he does that which will teach USCIS a lesson. USCIS made the Filing Dates null and void making life difficult for CO, so he will have no option to move FAD and do what he used to do before when there was only 1 date. Giving USCIS any authority in the VB is never a good idea.



I think this subject is exhausted - I won't comment on it again.

Thanks for the summary. I agree we have beaten this horse to death. Let's see what the future VBs say!

[march1612]

After a lot of thought process based on the data and feedback, I kind of came to conclusion that CO wants to move EB2-I and EB3-I hand in hand to reduce porting and better visa usage. He will stick with 2009 dates.

[GCkaLADDU]

After a lot of thought process based on the data and feedback, I kind of came to conclusion that CO wants to move EB2-I and EB3-I hand in hand to reduce porting and better visa usage. He will stick with 2009 dates.

Thanks Oraklebaba :o

[GCkaLADDU]

Thanks Oraklebaba :)

[AceMan]

just saw on trackitt a person with pd 9-apr-2009 got rfe NSC. both NSC and TSC are consistent(dates) with RFEs


So, the chance of CO doing better than his own predictions looks high, isn't it?

May 2010 / December 2010 for 2018 EB2 / EB3 India - a good dream to ponder on :-)

[Jagan01]

So, the chance of CO doing better than his own predictions looks high, isn't it?

May 2010 / December 2010 for 2018 EB2 / EB3 India - a good dream to ponder on :-)Are you serious OR are you being sarcastic ?

[AceMan]

Are you serious OR are you being sarcastic ?

A very serious wish. I don't do sarcasm with dates.

Looking at the RFE's for EB2 I, it has a potential to go well into 2009, so add some optimistic ingredient to try and push the dates further.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

So, the chance of CO doing better than his own predictions looks high, isn't it?

May 2010 / December 2010 for 2018 EB2 / EB3 India - a good dream to ponder on :-)

You are missing the wood for the trees bro.


http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=59602&viewfull=1#post59602

If you see the slide in the above post by @spectator, it is very clear that the SO will be utilized by EB1 before any remnants can fall down to EB2. So, unless CO decides to side step the Rule that he has himself quoted and favor EB2, I don't see how EB2I can advance more than its quota of 2800 in this FY or even the next FY. There simply is not enough EB3 SO to clear out EB3I and EB1 and then fall down to EB2. By the start of next FY, CO will have advanced EB3I far out enough to generate sufficient demand to soak up the ALL EB3 SO. I see EB3I being ahead of EB2I till the existing unfiled EB2I and EB3I PERM's are cleared. Certainly there is some substance in the Duplicate and Multiple PERM's argument, but it does nothing to help SO in EB3, which I am afraid may not be more than 10K Per year even with all the MAGA mania going on in USCIS.

[Jagan01]

A very serious wish. I don't do sarcasm with dates.

Looking at the RFE's for EB2 I, it has a potential to go well into 2009, so add some optimistic ingredient to try and push the dates further.
I have gotten RFE 3 times now and dates have not moved to Jan 2009. This time being the third time. Getting RFE does mot mean that date will get current.

The dates may love upto May 2009 but your hopes of moving to 2010 are beyond strech.

[AceMan]

You are missing the wood for the trees bro.



If you see the slide in the above post by @spectator, it is very clear that the SO will be utilized by EB1 before any remnants can fall down to EB2. So, unless CO decides to side step the Rule that he has himself quoted and favor EB2, I don't see how EB2I can advance more than its quota of 2800 in this FY or even the next FY. There simply is not enough EB3 SO to clear out EB3I and EB1 and then fall down to EB2. By the start of next FY, CO will have advanced EB3I far out enough to generate sufficient demand to soak up the ALL EB3 SO. I see EB3I being ahead of EB2I till the existing unfiled EB2I and EB3I PERM's are cleared. Certainly there is some substance in the Duplicate and Multiple PERM's argument, but it does nothing to help SO in EB3, which I am afraid may not be more than 10K Per year even with all the MAGA mania going on in USCIS.


I loved the anecdote. But I believe in taking a swing to hit the pot.

I agree with the notes/flow provided by Spec. But just because the max speed limit is 65, we are not going to stay under it. The catch is conditions permitting. Almost 80-90% of Eb2 I before May 2009 have to be porters. It also means there is a very little chance of unfiled EB2Â’s before this date. This 3 day movement is reminiscent of EB3 India March 2005 movement early 2017. Once the clog is gone it is going to be a faster movement. Yes I agree the numbers are heavier in EB2, but the potential EB3 surge will help at 30% of porters back into Eb3 queue.

[qesehmk]

I hate to put water on the spillover party - but to my knowledge
A) there is no explicit Fall Up from EB3 to EB1.
B) I am not aware that CO has the discretion to create such a Fall Up.
C) I'd be mighty surprised if he actually does that in the interest of backlogged folks from India and China.

[Spectator]

I hate to put water on the spillover party - but to my knowledge
A) there is no explicit Fall Up from EB3 to EB1.
B) I am not aware that CO has the discretion to create such a Fall Up.
C) I'd be mighty surprised if he actually does that in the interest of backlogged folks from India and China.
Q,

I can't disagree with you.

That was certainly my position before the PP presentation.

In a previous post, I showed that the law does not explicitly allow for SO from EB3 to another EB class within the FY.

This is in contrast to FB where the law specifically allows a circular SO.

If it's specific for FB, why not the same specificity for EB?

There remains the possibility that the PP slide is incorrect.

I agree with your view that it wouldn't fall under CO's discretionary powers. The law is so complex and interlinked, that perhaps some other provision in the INA allows him to do it.

The proof may only come in the actions and the final figures for the FY.

[EB3Iwaiting]

So, it seems the movement of EB2I to March 2009 is simply based on horizontal SO from EB2ROW due to interview delays. Since CO has not given a date for EB3, maybe he still does not know what to do with the excess EB3 visas?

Like Spec said, it will be interesting to see the final numbers for this FY.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. I agree that CO may very well have something up his sleeve.

Lets hope so with a realistic view of what's allowed under the law.
Q,

I can't disagree with you.

That was certainly my position before the PP presentation.

In a previous post, I showed that the law does not explicitly allow for SO from EB3 to another EB class within the FY.

This is in contrast to FB where the law specifically allows a circular SO.

If it's specific for FB, why not the same specificity for EB?

There remains the possibility that the PP slide is incorrect.

I agree with your view that it wouldn't fall under CO's discretionary powers. The law is so complex and interlinked, that perhaps some other provision in the INA allows him to do it.

The proof may only come in the actions and the final figures for the FY.

[Positive]

In theory, as long as backlogs exist in either EB2or EB3, there should be no leftover visas in EB3 because it is easy to interfile from EB2 to EB3. Any efforts to illegally spill over leftover EB3 visas to EB1 should be resisted and challenged by all stakeholders. Leftover EB3 visas in the current situation is nothing but a result of mismanagement by the USCIS and the CO combined. If this illegal funneling is allowed to get entrenched it will create havoc for years to come. It has already happened for a couple of years (at least in effect). Illegally moving these visas over to EB1 will never help backlogged folks as we now know that EB1 has a bottomless appetite for visas and will rarely if ever generate spill overs. Moreover, this kind of illegal spillover would only compound the injustice to people stuck in the line for decades where EB1 are barely waiting an year or two. Also, there is hardly anything to suggest that EB1 as a whole are in any way more meritorious or deserving than other EB categories. Lets all play by the rules, howsoever nonsensical they may be.

[qesehmk]

Frankly speaking i am baffled by the whole talk about EB3 to EB1 spillover. I think that's quite sneaky way to rob EB2/3 of their visas.


In theory, as long as backlogs exist in either EB2or EB3, there should be no leftover visas in EB3 because it is easy to interfile from EB2 to EB3. Any efforts to illegally spill over leftover EB3 visas to EB1 should be resisted and challenged by all stakeholders. Leftover EB3 visas in the current situation is nothing but a result of mismanagement by the USCIS and the CO combined. If this illegal funneling is allowed to get entrenched it will create havoc for years to come. It has already happened for a couple of years (at least in effect). Illegally moving these visas over to EB1 will never help backlogged folks as we now know that EB1 has a bottomless appetite for visas and will rarely if ever generate spill overs. Moreover, this kind of illegal spillover would only compound the injustice to people stuck in the line for decades where EB1 are barely waiting an year or two. Also, there is hardly anything to suggest that EB1 as a whole are in any way more meritorious or deserving than other EB categories. Lets all play by the rules, howsoever nonsensical they may be.

[Positive]

Frankly speaking i am baffled by the whole talk about EB3 to EB1 spillover. I think that's quite sneaky way to rob EB2/3 of their visas.
Totally agree. Perhaps, those involved with advocacy organizations should raise this issue and make enough noise to deter such tendency to misallocate visas. We know they are all into HR392 etc. but pursuing an all or nothing agenda keeps setting us back bit by bit. It is in the interest of all concerned about EB backlogs to stop EB1 from walking away with more than 40,000 visas in a given year unless those visas are FB spillovers. If a fraction of the activism was directed towards making sure that the current laws are obeyed, we would be much better off.

The same diligent USCIS and CO, who carefully advance EB2 by 3 days (seriously!) when not retrogressing EB2 and EB3 to an extent that these categories end up getting up to 3000 to 4000 visas less than their allocation, are (intentionally?) sleeping when EB1 somehow gets more than their share of visas issued. One would think they would be more diligent in making sure that the backlogged categories get every last visa that is properly due to them rather than lending their weight to further weigh the scales against them.

[Positive]

Bottom line is, we do not need unused Eb3 visas to illegally spill over to EB1 in the hopes that it will then trickle down to EB2. EB2 can easily consume any surplus in EB3 by interfiling.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Frankly speaking i am baffled by the whole talk about EB3 to EB1 spillover. I think that's quite sneaky way to rob EB2/3 of their visas.

So far EB3 has been robbed of the visas, I don't know if EB2 lost any. But I would hold CO responsible for any such EB Visa robbery. He has the authority to advance the Dates so that no Visas are lost, but has lacked the vision to do so. Wonder why he is revered and regarded so highly by AILA and Q's gurus.

[qesehmk]

Wonder why he is revered and regarded so highly by AILA and Q's gurus.
I can't speak for others .... but I don't revere him. He has a job to do and his office portrays this as a very complicated thing. Either he hasn't discovered excel or computers OR the whole visa allocation is a thing tied with geo-political objectives. I am confident it's the latter.

Having said that I also think he is only doing his job. The moment we do away with country quota - the current nonsense will stop.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Having said that I also think he is only doing his job. The moment we do away with country quota - the current nonsense will stop.

Ironically, in the House hearing on "Wasted Visas, Growing Backlogs", the 7% country cap was given as the prime reason for Visas being wasted.

https://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/CHRG-110hhrg42118/html/CHRG-110hhrg42118.htm

[HarepathekaIntezar]

We can agonize and shout from the roof tops, but ground reality is EB2I majorly screwed and EB3I to some extent is screwed because of CO's actions which are benefiting EB1. I expect EB3I to race past EB2I in the coming VB, given all the data that we has been posted on this thread.

[march1612]

Off the topic,

When CO could predict EB2-I and EB3-I Priority dates for July, why delay in releasing the VB? what is cooking behind the scene?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Off the topic,

When CO could predict EB2-I and EB3-I Priority dates for July, why delay in releasing the VB? what is cooking behind the scene?

He did not mention a cutoff date for EB3I, only EB2I. I will not be surprised if both have the same cutoff date.

[march1612]

He did not mention a cutoff date for EB3I, only EB2I. I will not be surprised if both have the same cutoff date.

He predicted EB3-I would move significantly which means he knows how far he has to move.

[GCkaLADDU]

He predicted EB3-I would move significantly which means he knows how far he has to move.

So much power in hands of one man! Like a messiah to the helpless Indian GC seekers :)

[redsox2009]

I'm seeing ROW approvals pre-March 2017 dates with RFE being issued in May 2018, my guess is ROW field office approvals are kind of saturated and Visa office/USCIS is kind of finding how interviews are scheduled for next month, which gives them an estimate to move the dates.

Either it can be too good news or bad news for desi Jantha.

[meragc]

isnt it high time for the July VB to be published? what is causing this delay.
will dates for eb2 move upto March 09 as promised by CO

[march1612]

Critical data point is demand at Field offices and if the demand is reported back to DOS from Field Offices? I believe this is the game changer which can turn the tide either way!!!

[incredible]

Critical data point is demand at Field offices and if the demand is reported back to DOS from Field Offices? I believe this is the game changer which can turn the tide either way!!!

Not sure if this helps rest of the group. We have filed for EAD/AP renewals (based on pending I485 filed back in 2012, PD of 02/2010), instead of general 2 years, this time AP has come only for 1 year and EAD has not yet come (hoping to get it in the next month), but reading between the lines, it seems 2010 may be in for some change by early next year (which means 2009 as CO said, may be in for some movement this year)

[meragc]

Not sure if this helps rest of the group. We have filed for EAD/AP renewals (based on pending I485 filed back in 2012, PD of 02/2010), instead of general 2 years, this time AP has come only for 1 year and EAD has not yet come (hoping to get it in the next month), but reading between the lines, it seems 2010 may be in for some change by early next year (which means 2009 as CO said, may be in for some movement this year)

thanks incredible.
hoping to see some movement in eb2 in this VB.

[march1612]

Thank you Spec for the numbers.

Here is my take on these numbers.
These numbers have NOT surprised me but inefficiency in allocating 77.7K visas ONLY in place of 80K QUOTA to EB 3 & 2 categories put together, that’s a 2.3k wastage of visas OR misallocations. Otherwise these 2.2k visas would have gone to EB 2&3 India and would have saved 100s of families struggling with age out kids(so called H4 dreamer kids)
I used to say in my previous posts that EB2 I will not get any relief until the EB3 I catches up with EB2 I. This has become true.
I strongly believe that 90% to 100% of those 2,879 visas in EB2I might have gone to porters (leaving a zero for original EB2 I candidates) and on top of that there might be an increase in EB2 I inventory due to upward porting from EB3 I.
But it will not be too far anymore that this porting is going to become zero and eventually negative (downward from EB2I to EB3I).
This is the reason why I used to say that we have to see EB3-I and EB2-I as together going forward. We can safely expect a total of 10K+ visas to (EB2 - I PLUS EB3 - I) together each year from now on till we see any vertical spillover (if any) in far future (i.e. a minimum of 10k/80k to India in EB 2 and EB 3 categories put together).
Who will claim these 10k+ visas is an entirely different story and it depends on how actively EB2 I people will do downward porting to grab the available visas in EB3 I. A same scenario what we are seeing in EB2I will be seen in EB3I scenario i.e. Eb3I PDs will be stalled at 2009/2010 PDs till the corresponding PDs in EB2I completely exhausted by downward porting.

Will EB2-I reach May 2010 by September 2018?

[Jagan01]

Not sure if this helps rest of the group. We have filed for EAD/AP renewals (based on pending I485 filed back in 2012, PD of 02/2010), instead of general 2 years, this time AP has come only for 1 year and EAD has not yet come (hoping to get it in the next month), but reading between the lines, it seems 2010 may be in for some change by early next year (which means 2009 as CO said, may be in for some movement this year)I have renewed my EAD multiple times. Sometimes 2 years renewal and sometimes 1 year renewal. My PD (Jan 2009) had not been current since 2014. Filed renewal this year and got a 2 year EAD.

I would just say that do not focus a lot on the EAD renewal pattern. Going by the EAD duration logic, it certainly does not make sense to give EAD of 2 year validity to a Jan 2009 PD and give EAD of 1 year validity to a May 2010 PD.

Having said the above, USCIS might want to be very careful in not wasting visas, and hence might proactively send out RFEs to EB2I all the way upto May 2010. This might be because the only category that can consume the visas without interviews is EB2I candidates upto May 2010, and just in case there is rare chance of a huge SO (more than anticipated), then they will have demand ready.

[smuggymba]

Not sure if this helps rest of the group. We have filed for EAD/AP renewals (based on pending I485 filed back in 2012, PD of 02/2010), instead of general 2 years, this time AP has come only for 1 year and EAD has not yet come (hoping to get it in the next month), but reading between the lines, it seems 2010 may be in for some change by early next year (which means 2009 as CO said, may be in for some movement this year)

I got two year EAD/AP combo card at my last renewal in 2016 and my wife for 2 year EAD and one year paper AP. For the last 2-3 renewals, our dates aligned. In our upcoming renewal our EAD/AP dates no longer match.

USCIS has no logic when they do this; the goal here is to frustrate us ( based on direction from lawyers given to their USCIS friends)

[incredible]

I have renewed my EAD multiple times. Sometimes 2 years renewal and sometimes 1 year renewal. My PD (Jan 2009) had not been current since 2014. Filed renewal this year and got a 2 year EAD.

I would just say that do not focus a lot on the EAD renewal pattern. Going by the EAD duration logic, it certainly does not make sense to give EAD of 2 year validity to a Jan 2009 PD and give EAD of 1 year validity to a May 2010 PD.

Having said the above, USCIS might want to be very careful in not wasting visas, and hence might proactively send out RFEs to EB2I all the way upto May 2010. This might be because the only category that can consume the visas without interviews is EB2I candidates upto May 2010, and just in case there is rare chance of a huge SO (more than anticipated), then they will have demand ready.

Thanks. Agree with all your comments. Let us see how this goes in the coming months (I think it will be interesting once again after long time).

[swordfish380]

Hello Q,

Not too far in the distant past (2016). CO allocated EB3i Visa's to EB2I . Law is always up for interpretation. The fact that power point was published with DOS seal, EB3 unused Visa's can be moved to EB1.

[march1612]

Never seen visa bulletin released so late unless there is something cooking behind it. I went back to past years until 2007 and all visa bulletin's were released before 10th of each month except July-2007,Aug-2007 and Sep-2007 VB which was released after 10th,2007

[YTeleven]

Will EB2-I reach May 2010 by September 2018?

No. Not EB2-I. But I can expect EB3-I will move to that far in next 6 months.

[swordfish380]

Earlier in this thread it was discussed why cant CO apply SO to EB1. But in 2016 CO applied 4000+ EB3 Visa's to Eb2i . Based on history he can apply SO to EB1.

[4WatItsWorth]

No. Not EB2-I. But I can expect EB3-I will move to that far in next 6 months.And, will it stay there or retrogress? Also, where do you see EB2-I at by then?

[qesehmk]

Hi Sword - yes i do remember the incident but not the details. He has taken the liberty to do such things. I am not sure if it is lawful nor I am sure if he is held accountable for those actions and by who.

I do not know what his logic was then - but i found it outrageous that when EB3 has people waiting for decades - how could visas go waste at all.

If nobody raised concerns in the past then the likelihood of him repeating it in future is NOT zero.

Hello Q,

Not too far in the distant past (2016). CO allocated EB3****isa's to EB2I . Law is always up for interpretation. The fact that power point was published with DOS seal, EB3 unused Visa's can be moved to EB1.


Earlier in this thread it was discussed why cant CO apply SO to EB1. But in 2016 CO applied 4000+ EB3 Visa's to Eb2i . Based on history he can apply SO to EB1.

[godhapaiya]

I have never seen a person with more questionable work ethics than CO. It’s the 14th and still they haven’t released the bulletin. Truly makes the DMV look like a Silicon Valley tech company.

[EB3Iwaiting]

With the Visa Bulletin this late, I have no doubt that USCIS is fighting tooth and nail right now with CO on the Final Action Dates as that is something they cannot control. If the dates are surprisingly bad, VB will come out tomorrow like Friday Dump news!

Rant:
USCIS is probably the only agency that has the best of both worlds - they are a federal agency so all of them have the federal gov't employee mentality but they operate as a private organization on private funds (applicant fee) and hence, neither Congress nor American taxpayers care. They have no accountability and can get away with all these. The one agency stuck in the stone age which still accepts paper applications and checks. With the work culture and mentality they have, USCIS employees will never survive a day in the private industry and yet, somehow they are the ones who gets to decide if a specific profession is a specialty occupation or not and send an RFE! Go figure!

Rant over!

[march1612]

With the Visa Bulletin this late, I have no doubt that USCIS is fighting tooth and nail right now with CO on the Final Action Dates as that is something they cannot control. If the dates are surprisingly bad, VB will come out tomorrow like Friday Dump news!

Rant:
USCIS is probably the only agency that has the best of both worlds - they are a federal agency so all of them have the federal gov't employee mentality but they operate as a private organization on private funds (applicant fee) and hence, neither Congress nor American taxpayers care. They have no accountability and can get away with all these. The one agency stuck in the stone age which still accepts paper applications and checks. With the work culture and mentality they have, USCIS employees will never survive a day in the private industry and yet, somehow they are the ones who gets to decide if a specific profession is a specialty occupation or not and send an RFE! Go figure!

Rant over!


I believe it is the field offices which are not giving exact number about the number of visas that are required for interviews that are lined up in July,Aug and September.

I think CO does not want to retrogress the dates and this is the reason why he has been taking conservative approach.

Field offices data could tilt the ship either way !!!

[swordfish380]

Hi Sword - yes i do remember the incident but not the details. He has taken the liberty to do such things. I am not sure if it is lawful nor I am sure if he is held accountable for those actions and by who.

I do not know what his logic was then - but i found it outrageous that when EB3 has people waiting for decades - how could visas go waste at all.

If nobody raised concerns in the past then the likelihood of him repeating it in future is NOT zero.


EB3I has been waiting for a long time but porting has caused EB2I's wait time to increase to a decade as well. So i do not share the same sentiment. Porting should not be allowed. If EB3 qualifys for EB2 they should get a priority date from the new application and should not be allowed to keep the old date.

[Raj0687]

They have over year stats from field offices, I don't think it's tough to make a close guess. This is not going to be the first time they retrogress date, in case of generous move.


I believe it is the field offices which are not giving exact number about the number of visas that are required for interviews that are lined up in July,Aug and September.

I think CO does not want to retrogress the dates and this is the reason why he has been taking conservative approach.

Field offices data could tilt the ship either way !!!

[canada]

July visa bulletin released.

EB2 India - 15th March,2009

EB3- 1st November, 2008

[HarepathekaIntezar]

July visa bulletin released.

EB2 India - 15th March,2009

EB3- 1st November, 2008

This is good news for EB2I. It means CO is diverting EB3 SO Visas to EB2I!!

[suninphx]

July visa bulletin released.

EB2 India - 15th March,2009

EB3- 1st November, 2008

Filing dates for EB2I and EB3I are very close now. Hope USCIS honors them:
EB2I - 22 May 09
EB3I - 01 May 09

[redsox2009]

I'm worried about this section. To whom is he addressing, EB2 or EB4/5?

F. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILTY IN THE COMING MONTHS

In recent weeks there has been a steadily increasing level of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. A continuation of the current demand pattern would result in a temporary establishment or retrogression of some final action dates in an effort to hold number use within the FY-2018 annual limits.

Should such action be required, there would be a full recovery in the preference category for October, the first month of fiscal year 2019.

[EB2-03252009]

I think he is talking about EB2-ROW


I'm worried about this section. To whom is addressing, EB2 or EB4/5?

F. EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA AVAILABILTY IN THE COMING MONTHS

In recent weeks there has been a steadily increasing level of Employment-based demand for adjustment of status cases filed with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. A continuation of the current demand pattern would result in a temporary establishment or retrogression of some final action dates in an effort to hold number use within the FY-2018 annual limits.

Should such action be required, there would be a full recovery in the preference category for October, the first month of fiscal year 2019.

[newyorker123]

Filing dates for EB2I and EB3I are very close now. Hope USCIS honors them:
EB2I - 22 May 09
EB3I - 01 May 09

AFAIK this has never happened, USCIS honors only the final action dates - Am I wrong ? If I am correct, what is the use of these filing dates ?

[Spectator]

AFAIK this has never happened, USCIS honors only the final action dates - Am I wrong ? If I am correct, what is the use of these filing dates ?
USCIS has only honored Filing Dates for 5 months (in 2 blocks).

October - November 2015
October - December 2016

I don't expect USCIS to allow Filing Dates for any remaining months in FY2018. I hope they prove me wrong though.

[Spectator]

I think he is talking about EB2-ROW
I'd agree with this.

It can also ensure EB1-WW use all the available visas and increased use in EB3-ROW would reduce the chance of wasted visas. Last year (FY2017), 46% of EB3-ROW use (based on Trackitt) took place in the last 3 months of the FY.

I've started to notice a reduction in the processing time for I-485 that had to go to Field Offices. Perhaps this behind the rise in demand that CO is seeing.

[EB2-03252009]

"A continuation of the current demand pattern would result in a temporary establishment" but EB2-ROW doesn't have a cut-off date yet, is he talking about EB2-I?


I'd agree with this.

It can also ensure EB1-WW use all the available visas and increased use in EB3-ROW would reduce the chance of wasted visas. Last year (FY2017), 46% of EB3-ROW use (based on Trackitt) took place in the last 3 months of the FY.

I've started to notice a reduction in the processing time for I-485 that had to go to Field Offices. Perhaps this behind the rise in demand that CO is seeing.

[Spectator]

"A continuation of the current demand pattern would result in a temporary establishment" but EB2-ROW doesn't have a cut-off date yet, is he talking about EB2-I?
If EB2-ROW continues to see the high recent demand, CO would definitely have to think about retrogressing them at the end of the FY.

EB2-ROW have been retrogressed at the end of the FY in the previous 2 FY, so it wouldn't be anything new.

If demand subsides a bit, they might scrape through the rest of the FY without retrogression.

[msfc_1]

Hello. I used to post here under msfc. For some reason I was unable to rescue my old account. I can share from anecdotes from friends that have interviewed around the country that USCIS has improved their process for approval after field office interview. When the new policy started, interviewers were not sure of how to proceed and many cases were sent from the field office back to the Texas or Nebraska centers. In early 2018 the field offices would have to clear the approval with their supervisors. However since about April/May (there has been some difference in implementation among different field offices), the officers can approve on a same-day basis. Trackitt anecdotal evidence backs this - many are reporting that their status changes to Card Production Order the evening of their interview day.
I expect therefore for demand from EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW to return to a more normal pace. Also, a lot of the cases that had interviews August-December 2017 are probably sitting in Texas and Nebraska waiting to be approved. And as others have noted in the thread, there are probably a few pre-March 2017 cases in EB2-ROW cases sitting around.
It is interesting to note that EB3-C has now moved behind EB2-C (for final action date) but the dates for filing remain with EB3-C having a better date. It is possible DOS will try to fill the pipeline with some CP cases just in case USCIS does not demand sufficient visas. Also EB3-P is only one year retrogressed, that can be another source of CP cases.
All in all, I do not expect much wastage - and for those in EB2-I and EB3-I, there may be some extra visas available from "horizontal"" spillover, but not much. The dates may only inch forward from here for the remainder of the year.

[Jagan01]

If EB2-ROW continues to see the high recent demand, CO would definitely have to think about retrogressing them at the end of the FY.

EB2-ROW have been retrogressed at the end of the FY in the previous 2 FY, so it wouldn't be anything new.

If demand subsides a bit, they might scrape through the rest of the FY without retrogression.But if EB2ROW demand was really rising enough to have them establish a cut-off date, then CO would not have risked moving EB2I to 15 Mar 2009.

Typically he would only move EB2I forward enough where he knows that he is not risking under usage by EB2ROW. If there was really increasing demand from EB2ROW then CO would have only moved EB2I to sometime in Jan/Feb 2009.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

But if EB2ROW demand was really rising enough to have them establish a cut-off date, then CO would not have risked moving EB2I to 15 Mar 2009.

Typically he would only move EB2I forward enough where he knows that he is not risking under usage by EB2ROW. If there was really increasing demand from EB2ROW then CO would have only moved EB2I to sometime in Jan/Feb 2009.


As I mentioned, maybe he is planning to divert EB3 SO to EB2I. He should just have made both EB2I and EB3I FA dates as Mar 15, 2009!

[march1612]

But if EB2ROW demand was really rising enough to have them establish a cut-off date, then CO would not have risked moving EB2I to 15 Mar 2009.

Typically he would only move EB2I forward enough where he knows that he is not risking under usage by EB2ROW. If there was really increasing demand from EB2ROW then CO would have only moved EB2I to sometime in Jan/Feb 2009.

Does it mean CO is expecting spillover from other EB categories to EB2-I? and can we expect more movement in Aug and Sep VB's?

[Jagan01]

As I mentioned, maybe he is planning to divert EB3 SO to EB2I. He should just have made both EB2I and EB3I FA dates as Mar 15, 2009!Even if he had made the FA date for EB3I to be Mar 15, 2009, the EB3 SO would not have been consumed by EB3I. The reason is that there are not enough applications in EB3I that have a per-adjudicated application that can consume the SO.

I think CO will keep moving EB3I FA date ahead, and as a result EB3I might be at the same PD as EB2I by the end of the FY. For the next FY , EB3I will have enough per-adjudicated applications to consume the EB3 SO.

[getsaby]

So got an RFE SMS text around 11 pm yesterday night, EB2-IND-Oct 09.

I think mostly it will be medical, did second medical on Oct 2014, after that, there was no update on the case (NSC), also have an EAD since 2012.

Of course, we have to reply to the RFE, but what is the point of issuing medical RFE, if the PD of 2009 for EB2-IND, won't be current in one year? or I am missing something here because most of the EB2-IND people till the end of 2009 already have an EAD.

[march1612]

I believe USCIS would consider filing dates for EB3-India for July VB to build inventory

[gcwait]

Can EB2I people file EB3 I140 and I485 concurrently if the EB3I filing dates go past EB2I dates and USCIS accepts them? If not, then filing dates can be used to build the EB3I inventory without worrying about immediate EB3I to EB2I downgrades.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I believe USCIS would consider filing dates for EB3-India for July VB to build inventory
How do you 'believe' that?

[Nishant_imt]

So ...are we expecting any further movement of EB2I dates this year or is that it until october.

[delguy]

One of the tweets from AILA conference mentioned that USCIS is prioritizing EB interviews over FB so that visa wastage wont happen in EB categories.

[Jagan01]

So ...are we expecting any further movement of EB2I dates this year or is that it until october.Based on the comments from CO, it is expected to stay put at Mar 15, 2009.

There are approximately 3k applications from Jan 01, 2009 to Mar 15, 2009. I would think that some applicants between Jan to Mar might not get approved as the SO might not be enough to cover all of them.

[Blue_Yellow]

Based on the comments from CO, it is expected to stay put at Mar 15, 2009.

There are approximately 3k applications from Jan 01, 2009 to Mar 15, 2009. I would think that some applicants between Jan to Mar might not get approved as the SO might not be enough to cover all of them.

There goes my another $600 for medical exam (third time) without getting Green Card.

[gcvijay]

Hello Guys\Experts

Need advice on my INDIA Trip. I'm planning on taking vacation from July 24 until Aug 28th 2018 and my GC EB2 INDIA priority date is July 2nd 2009. I know CO mentioned this date will not become current within this FY. Should I go on vacation? Also, I have an old employed EB3 for the same date saying that they will be able to process once when it becomes current? Is there any chance of Eb3 becoming current for this date in next month or August? Also What is the estimated time I will become current on EB2 or EB3 I?

Appreciate all your response and guidance guys.

[LASHAB]

Hello Guys\Experts

Need advice on my INDIA Trip. I'm planning on taking vacation from July 24 until Aug 28th 2018 and my GC EB2 INDIA priority date is July 2nd 2009. I know CO mentioned this date will not become current within this FY. Should I go on vacation? Also, I have an old employed EB3 for the same date saying that they will be able to process once when it becomes current? Is there any chance of Eb3 becoming current for this date in next month or August? Also What is the estimated time I will become current on EB2 or EB3 I?

Appreciate all your response and guidance guys.

Movement to Jul 2009 in next VB seems unlikely. Sept VB has slight chance (though CO has specifically indicated on not relying on any forward movement in EB2I for rest of the FY). Either ways you have enough time to cancel the travel plans (if dates move to Jul 2009 in next VB) or apply after you come back (if it moves in Sept VB).

[getsaby]

Received the hard copy of the RFE today, wonder why it was not sent to the lawyer, but these are the things NSC have asked me to send.

1. Supplement J (still with the same employer, have EAD since 2012)
2. G-325A
3. Legal status documentation from the last admission
4. i-693, medical (This will be third medical, 2012, 2014 and now)

[HarepathekaIntezar]

One of the tweets from AILA conference mentioned that USCIS is prioritizing EB interviews over FB so that visa wastage wont happen in EB categories.

How is that possible, if they have already scheduled interviews 1 year in advance (as has been posted on this forum)? Where do they find the slots to schedule interviews upto Sept 30, if they are already booked to capacity?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Hello Guys\Experts

Need advice on my INDIA Trip. I'm planning on taking vacation from July 24 until Aug 28th 2018 and my GC EB2 INDIA priority date is July 2nd 2009. I know CO mentioned this date will not become current within this FY. Should I go on vacation? Also, I have an old employed EB3 for the same date saying that they will be able to process once when it becomes current? Is there any chance of Eb3 becoming current for this date in next month or August? Also What is the estimated time I will become current on EB2 or EB3 I?

Appreciate all your response and guidance guys.

Don't worry, just go about your vacation peacefully and come back. There is nothing that cannot be done after you come back from your trip.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Received the hard copy of the RFE today, wonder why it was not sent to the lawyer, but these are the things NSC have asked me to send.

1. Supplement J (still with the same employer, have EAD since 2012)
2. G-325A
3. Legal status documentation from the last admission
4. i-693, medical (This will be third medical, 2012, 2014 and now)

How does your question tie in with 'Predictions and Calculations'?:rolleyes:

[dev2010]

Need some advice.
Priority date - Oct 26, 2010 EB2 from previous employer. Changed job couple of years ago and new employer has not started process yet. I have been pushing but still in early stages. Meanwhile old employer is asking to come back but on a lower compensation than existing and less exciting project. Moving back will pay off if next financial year EB2 or EB3 moves that far. What would you advice?

[msfc_1]

How is that possible, if they have already scheduled interviews 1 year in advance (as has been posted on this forum)? Where do they find the slots to schedule interviews upto Sept 30, if they are already booked to capacity?

They are scheduling two o three months in advance, a least in the NYC office. They are also now approving the green cards within hours of the interview-

[gcvijay]

USCIS has only honored Filing Dates for 5 months (in 2 blocks).

October - November 2015
October - December 2016

I don't expect USCIS to allow Filing Dates for any remaining months in FY2018. I hope they prove me wrong though.

Dear Spec

USCIS will never prove you wrong. The filing dates is same as FAD for July 2018 . :-)

[imdeng]

Why do you need the new employer to do anything? If you have an already approved I-140 and are only waiting for your PD to get current so that you can file I-485 then you can do so yourself. What am I missing here?

[dev2010]

Why do you need the new employer to do anything? If you have an already approved I-140 and are only waiting for your PD to get current so that you can file I-485 then you can do so yourself. What am I missing here?

When I join new employer, GC process needs to be started again. Only if I go back to old employer I can just wait for PD to be current. My question is, for a PD of EB2 Oct-2010 is it worth going back to old employer hoping it will be current within next year or wait for new employer to begin process and wait till it reaches I-140 stage which may take at least 1.5 years. Even if there is a chance for EB3 to reach that far I may downgrade

[nbk1976]

When I join new employer, GC process needs to be started again. Only if I go back to old employer I can just wait for PD to be current. My question is, for a PD of EB2 Oct-2010 is it worth going back to old employer hoping it will be current within next year or wait for new employer to begin process and wait till it reaches I-140 stage which may take at least 1.5 years. Even if there is a chance for EB3 to reach that far I may downgrade

If the two jobs are similar, you are allowed to switch employers: AC 21.

[dev2010]

If the two jobs are similar, you are allowed to switch employers: AC 21.

I can't port my I-140 no matter how similar 2 jobs are. As I have never filled I-1485 I will need to restart process with new employer.

[srimurthy]

If the two jobs are similar, you are allowed to switch employers: AC 21.
That is only after 485 is filed and 6 months passed and a PD with Oct 2010 has not filed 485 yet.

[texas_]

An Off-topic advise from you:

My project team including me are changing location from the one I work in to across the street which is walk able distance.

Do I need to file for an amendment? If yes, do I have to file for amendment before move or after? Can I file extension along with amendment ?

Please advice upon your convinience

[dev2010]

An Off-topic advise from you:

My project team including me are changing location from the one I work in to across the street which is walk able distance.

Do I need to file for an amendment? If yes, do I have to file for amendment before move or after? Can I file extension along with amendment ?

Please advice upon your convinience

You don't need to file amendment anytime you move within same MSA(Metropolitan statistical area). I am sure across the street will be within same MSA

[texas_]

You don't need to file amendment anytime you move within same MSA(Metropolitan statistical area). I am sure across the street will be within same MSA

Thanks Dev2010, That's exactly what my employer told me.
Jay

[meragc]

hi Gurus,
have a quick Q.
i am in a dilemma, my date just got current in the July VB.
just before that i had recd rfe's for 485-J, new medicals and proof of maintained legal status
all of that was provided and uscis case status shows they have recd the RFE documents and are processing it. the my PD became current just after this in July VB (Eb2-I Feb 09)
I have EAD since 2014 October and have already renewd it twice with current one expiring in early 2020.
so now the big Q is should i just wait for them to go through everything at their pace and expect to get greened soon,
or should i go the route (some of my friends suggested) of sending a letter to my local congressman about the situation that date is current and still GC not recd etc....

Please advice gurus, thanks in advance!

[imdeng]

hi Gurus,
have a quick Q.
i am in a dilemma, my date just got current in the July VB.
just before that i had recd rfe's for 485-J, new medicals and proof of maintained legal status
all of that was provided and uscis case status shows they have recd the RFE documents and are processing it. the my PD became current just after this in July VB (Eb2-I Feb 09)
I have EAD since 2014 October and have already renewd it twice with current one expiring in early 2020.
so now the big Q is should i just wait for them to go through everything at their pace and expect to get greened soon,
or should i go the route (some of my friends suggested) of sending a letter to my local congressman about the situation that date is current and still GC not recd etc....

Please advice gurus, thanks in advance!

You are not yet current. You would want to give USCIS the normal processing time before escalating. You are well settled with your EAD - there is no urgent reason for you to do congressman/senator etc. If your date stays current for a few months and there is no update on your case then you should start following up. Just my personal opinion and what I would do in your place.

[meragc]

You are not yet current. You would want to give USCIS the normal processing time before escalating. You are well settled with your EAD - there is no urgent reason for you to do congressman/senator etc. If your date stays current for a few months and there is no update on your case then you should start following up. Just my personal opinion and what I would do in your place.


thanks for the response, do appreciate your honest opinion here
so if i understand it correctly you say i am not yet current is because the dates are applicable to July and we are still in June yeah??

[redsox2009]

2018 May Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
00
06
05
00
15
00
217
243


EB2
08
08
11
19
71
02
147
266


EB3
64
114
37
394
52
06
339
1006


EB4
02
39
00
03
03
10
190
247


EB5
64
46
00
00
17
00
210
337


Total
138
213
53
416
158
18
1103
2099

[redsox2009]

Year to date Monthly Family and Employment Immigrant Visa Issuance

Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
ROW
Total


EmploymentTotal
5054
1042
302
4007
10134
20539


FamilyTotal
8250
11520
18309
10091
93766
141936


Total
13304
12562
18611
14098
103900
162475

[msfc_1]

Year to date Monthly Family and Employment Immigrant Visa Issuance

Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
ROW
Total


EmploymentTotal
5054
1042
302
4007
10134
20539


FamilyTotal
8250
11520
18309
10091
93766
141936


Total
13304
12562
18611
14098
103900
162475



This is a significant number for CP - would amount to about about 20% of all EB visas by the end of the fiscal year. Clearly some are taking advantage of CP vs AOS under the new interview requirement for AOS- look at the numbers for ROW.

[imdeng]

thanks for the response, do appreciate your honest opinion here
so if i understand it correctly you say i am not yet current is because the dates are applicable to July and we are still in June yeah??

Yup - that's what I meant.

[kkruna]

Year to date Monthly Family and Employment Immigrant Visa Issuance

Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
ROW
Total


EmploymentTotal
5054
1042
302
4007
10134
20539


FamilyTotal
8250
11520
18309
10091
93766
141936


Total
13304
12562
18611
14098
103900
162475



What could be the reason for so low EB visa issuances?

[Spectator]

China
India
Mexico
Philippines
ROW
Total


EmploymentTotal
5054
1042
302
4007
10134
20539


FamilyTotal
8250
11520
18309
10091
93766
141936


Total
13304
12562
18611
14098
103900
162475



What could be the reason for so low EB visa issuances?


kkruna,

The figures are for DOS Consular Processed cases only (8 months October - May) and do not include any AOS cases processed by USCIS.

They are not low.

For reference, here are the CP figures for the entire FY2017:

-------------------- China -- India - Mexico - Philippines ----- ROW --- Total
Employment Total --- 8,039 ---- 756 ---- 278 ------- 4,278 -- 10,463 -- 23,814
Family Total ------ 14,954 - 14,839 - 27,627 ------ 13,478 - 141,257 - 212,155

Grand Total ------- 22,993 - 15,595 - 27,905 ------ 17,756 - 151,720 - 235,969

In FY2017, 17% of EB visas issued were Consular Processed
In FY2017, 94% of FB visas issued were Consular Processed

[HarepathekaIntezar]

kkruna,

The figures are for DOS Consular Processed cases only (8 months October - May) and do not include any AOS cases processed by USCIS.

They are not low.

For reference, here are the CP figures for the entire FY2017:

-------------------- China -- India - Mexico - Philippines ----- ROW --- Total
Employment Total --- 8,039 ---- 756 ---- 278 ------- 4,278 -- 10,463 -- 23,814
Family Total ------ 14,954 - 14,839 - 27,627 ------ 13,478 - 141,257 - 212,155

Grand Total ------- 22,993 - 15,595 - 27,905 ------ 17,756 - 151,720 - 235,969

In FY2017, 17% of EB visas issued were Consular Processed
In FY2017, 94% of FB visas issued were Consular Processed
This years CP for EB is on track to be 7K more than the pace of 2017. Looks like ROW and Philippines are accounting for those extra numbers. Which ROW countries do you think are sending those extra 5K numbers?

[LASHAB]

This years CP for EB is on track to be 7K more than the pace of 2017. Looks like ROW and Philippines are accounting for those extra numbers. Which ROW countries do you think are sending those extra 5K numbers?

The dates for EB2&3I should still move ahead for rest of the FY. Not sure how CO will calculate the forward movement though, or go conservative and hold on to the current dates.

[msfc_1]

This years CP for EB is on track to be 7K more than the pace of 2017. Looks like ROW and Philippines are accounting for those extra numbers. Which ROW countries do you think are sending those extra 5K numbers?

It is very evenly distributed. When the new interview procedures for AOS were announced, many decided to file their I-140s while choosing Consular Processing.

[almost]

Dear All,

I have a priority date of May 1 2009 and yesterday I got an RFE on my pending 485 for expired medicals. Funnily, this time there was no text or email notification sent. 3 questions:

1) Has anyone else experienced the same thing.

2) Even though the RFE doesn't explicitly ask for the Form J to be filed, it does have a section to check a box if a revision needs to be file. Since I filed for the last renewal before this form came into affect, do I need to file the form J as well? Also, it is important to note that I have been filing for EAD renewals under my own corporation (this was done only after consulting the attorney from Murthy Law Firm) and atleast the last renewal went through on that basis (expires Feb 2019)

3) At this point, is it worth filing for an EAD renewal?

Appreciate any help and guidance.

Thanks

[shekhar_kuruk]

Dear All,

I have a priority date of May 1 2009 and yesterday I got an RFE on my pending 485 for expired medicals. Funnily, this time there was no text or email notification sent. 3 questions:

1) Has anyone else experienced the same thing.

2) Even though the RFE doesn't explicitly ask for the Form J to be filed, it does have a section to check a box if a revision needs to be file. Since I filed for the last renewal before this form came into affect, do I need to file the form J as well? Also, it is important to note that I have been filing for EAD renewals under my own corporation (this was done only after consulting the attorney from Murthy Law Firm) and atleast the last renewal went through on that basis (expires Feb 2019)

3) At this point, is it worth filing for an EAD renewal?

Appreciate any help and guidance.

Thanks

No, I am a few days behind you. Also I am not even sure if my date will be current later this year. I would advise you wait till you become current or till you have few days left to reply to the RFE; before you send in your reply.
This way you have maximized your time for the validity of the medical reports (they are valid for an year after USCIS receives it). Good luck. I would advice also filling for your EAD renewal. RFE does NOT guarantee that you are going to get current soon. Also not sure whether you need to file form J. I would not do it if they have not specifically asked for it. Others can chime in.

[march1612]

Dear All,

I have a priority date of May 1 2009 and yesterday I got an RFE on my pending 485 for expired medicals. Funnily, this time there was no text or email notification sent. 3 questions:

1) Has anyone else experienced the same thing.

2) Even though the RFE doesn't explicitly ask for the Form J to be filed, it does have a section to check a box if a revision needs to be file. Since I filed for the last renewal before this form came into affect, do I need to file the form J as well? Also, it is important to note that I have been filing for EAD renewals under my own corporation (this was done only after consulting the attorney from Murthy Law Firm) and atleast the last renewal went through on that basis (expires Feb 2019)

3) At this point, is it worth filing for an EAD renewal?

Appreciate any help and guidance.

Thanks

I would recommend you to address only those mentioned in RFE.
EAD renewal is tied to your 485 application and not employer. As long as 485 is pending you are entitled to apply for EAD/AP renewals.

[almost]

The reason why I ask about form J is:

https://www.uscis.gov/i-485supj

Use Supplement J to:
•Confirm that the job offered to you in Form I-140, Petition for Alien Worker, remains a bona fide job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I 485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, is approved. Beginning Jan. 17, 2017, if you are filing or have previously filed Form I-485 based on being the principal beneficiary of a valid Form I-140 in an employment-based immigrant visa category that requires a job offer, you will need to file Supplement J instead of submitting a job offer letter;

OR
•Request job portability under INA section 204(j) to a new, full-time, permanent job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I-485 is approved. This new job offer must be in the same or a similar occupational classification as the job offered to you in the Form I-140 that is the basis of your Form I-485. (For more information about how USCIS determines which jobs are same or similar please see PM-602-0122: Determining Whether a New Job is in “the Same or a Similar Occupational Classification” for Purposes of Section 204(j) Job Portability (PDF, 205 KB) (March 18, 2016) (PDF, 205 KB)

[imdeng]

Always apply for EAD/AP. Why wouldn't you apply for those? Its a simple set of forms.


Hello freinds, If my PD becomes current does it make sense to apply for EAD with I485? should i just wait for my GC without applying for EAD.

[tendlya]

I have a quick question about Job title change. Please move it to appropriate thread once answered.
Couple of years ago my title was changed from Sr. Software Developer to Sr. Software Developer - Lead. There was no pay increase with the title change. In addition to my regular software development duties, I am also managing team of developers now. I need to renew my H1B soon. My question is do you guys see any issues with H1B renewal or I-485 application because of this change? Do I need to file I-485 J to prove the job is same or similar?
Thanks.

[nbk1976]

The reason why I ask about form J is:

https://www.uscis.gov/i-485supj

Use Supplement J to:
•Confirm that the job offered to you in Form I-140, Petition for Alien Worker, remains a bona fide job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I 485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, is approved. Beginning Jan. 17, 2017, if you are filing or have previously filed Form I-485 based on being the principal beneficiary of a valid Form I-140 in an employment-based immigrant visa category that requires a job offer, you will need to file Supplement J instead of submitting a job offer letter;

OR
•Request job portability under INA section 204(j) to a new, full-time, permanent job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I-485 is approved. This new job offer must be in the same or a similar occupational classification as the job offered to you in the Form I-140 that is the basis of your Form I-485. (For more information about how USCIS determines which jobs are same or similar please see PM-602-0122: Determining Whether a New Job is in “the Same or a Similar Occupational Classification” for Purposes of Section 204(j) Job Portability (PDF, 205 KB) (March 18, 2016) (PDF, 205 KB)

My lawyer once told me that I never should volunteer more information than what is asked and/or required. If the RFE lists 3 items, you supply only those--fully and quickly. If they want additional information, they will RFE again.

[nbk1976]

Hello freinds, If my PD becomes current does it make sense to apply for EAD with I485? should i just wait for my GC without applying for EAD.

Always seek full benefits that you are entitled to. The PD’s becoming current is no guarantee that you will get your GC in a timely manner, or even if you get the GC at all, since dates can retrogress.

File for EAD/AP together. Put both forms in the same envelope. Put a post-it on both forms with bold words “EAD/AP COMBO card requested”.

[godhelp]

hello experts, kindly throw light if you are absolutely sure of the answer. I have an approved I140 with an old employer. It was approved many years back and has 'never' been revoked or withdrawn, it is just sitting idle with them. My old employer "wont" be helping with 485 stage and my priority has became current now. My question is: can I use the approved I140 for requesting the 3 year H1B extension with a different employer, even when the Priority Date of the approved I140 has become current now. Again I wont be filing 485 with the old employer. Please advise..

Thanks and Regards,

[Spectator]

hello experts, kindly throw light if you are absolutely sure of the answer. I have an approved I140 with an old employer. It was approved many years back and has 'never' been revoked or withdrawn, it is just sitting idle with them. My old employer "wont" be helping with 485 stage and my priority has became current now. My question is: can I use the approved I140 for requesting the 3 year H1B extension with a different employer, even when the Priority Date of the approved I140 has become current now. Again I wont be filing 485 with the old employer. Please advise..

Thanks and Regards,I'm not going to say I am absolutely sure of the answer - I'm not a lawyer.

You may find this USCIS memo (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2008/ac21_30may08.pdf) helpful.

The pertinent part is:


2. AC21 §104(c) Guidance for Aliens Subject to Per Country Visa Limitations Pursuant to AC21 §104(c),

an alien is eligible for an extension of H-1B status if the alien is the beneficiary of an I-140 petition and would be eligible to be granted immigrant status but for the application of per country limitations applicable to immigrants under INA § 203(b)(1), (2) or (3).

Despite the title of AC21 §104(c), referring to “one-time” protection, USCIS may grant such H-1B extensions, in a maximum of three year increments, until such time as the alien’s application for adjustment of status has been processed and a decision made thereupon.

AC21 § 104(c) is applicable when an alien, who is the beneficiary of an approved I-140 petition, is eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status but for application of a per country limitation to which that alien is subject or, alternatively, if the immigrant preference category applicable to that alien is, as a whole, “unavailable”. Any petitioner seeking an H-1B extension on behalf of an H-1B alien beneficiary pursuant to AC21 §104(c) must thus establish that at the time of filing for such extension, the alien is not eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status on account of the per country immigrant visa limitations or, alternatively, because the immigrant preference classification applicable to the alien is “unavailable”.

In order to make a determination as to the H-1B alien beneficiary’s eligibility for an extension of H1B status under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21, USCIS adjudicators are instructed to review the Department of State Immigrant Visa Bulletin that was in effect at the time of filing of the Form I-129 petition. If, on the date of filing of the H-1B petition, the Visa Bulletin shows that the alien was subject to a per country or worldwide visa limitation in accordance with the alien’s immigrant visa “priority date”, then the H-1B extension request under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21 may be granted. To establish the alien’s priority date, USCIS may accept a copy of the H-1B alien beneficiary’s Form I-140 petition approval notice.

My reading of the above is that you would not be eligible to file for a 3 year extension under AC21 104(c) if the PD and category of the I-140 is current at the time the extension is filed.

You should still be able to file for a 1 year extension under AC21 106(a), for a PERM/I-140 filed for more than 365 days.

The post is more to point you in the right direction for information that might be helpful.

[godhelp]

thanks Spec for throwing light. I truly appreciate. Can you also please share the excerpt as to what AC21 106 (a) officially says, like you provided for AC21 104 (c). Any other expert with different opinion as to what Spec shared ??

[Spectator]

thanks Spec for throwing light. I truly appreciate. Can you also please share the excerpt as to what AC21 106 (a) officially says, like you provided for AC21 104 (c). Any other expert with different opinion as to what Spec shared ??
Here's (https://www.nafsa.org/_/file/_/amresource/ac21106.htm) what AC21 106(a) and (b) say.

Here's (https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/PUBLAW/HTML/PUBLAW/0-0-0-22204.html) the full text of the AC21 Bill.

Here's (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2005/ac21intrm122705.pdf) a USCIS memo that discusses AC21 106(a) (see Section II).

[incredible]

Here's (https://www.nafsa.org/_/file/_/amresource/ac21106.htm) what AC21 106(a) and (b) say.

Here's (https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/PUBLAW/HTML/PUBLAW/0-0-0-22204.html) the full text of the AC21 Bill.

Here's (https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/Static_Files_Memoranda/Archives%201998-2008/2005/ac21intrm122705.pdf) a USCIS memo that discusses AC21 106(a) (see Section II).

I am no expert, but have personal experience with little bit similar situation. Back in 2012 when the dates (for PD of Feb, 2010) became current, I was with another employer and had decided to join my old employer with whom I had an approved I-140. First thing they told me was that they can not file H1-B extension (for me to join them back), as long as the dates are current. They had to first file the I-485 and wait for the dates to retrogress (which duly happened within a month or so) and then file H1-B extension.
Hope this helps.

Thanks

[Spectator]

Spec,

The link takes us to June-2017 visa predictions and not 2018.Damn! You're right.

Serves me right for using a Trackitt link.

Have deleted my post and yours that quotes it.

[Spectator]

Let's try again.

Link (http://canteyhanger.com/news/immigration-news/)


June 26, 2018

Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim re the July 2018 Visa Bulletin

Employment-Based Preference Categories

EB-1 China and EB-1 India remain steady at January 1, 2012, and Charlie anticipates this date will hold for the remainder of the fiscal year. It is hoped that these categories will become current again on October 1, 2018, but demand trends will be monitored over the summer. If USCIS District Offices are not interviewing EB-1 China and EB-1 India applicants with priority dates beyond the established final action date, Charlie may not have clear visibility into total demand. If there is a surge in demand for these categories beginning in October, it could cause a final action date to be imposed more quickly in the fiscal year than otherwise anticipated.

Charlie expects that a final action date for EB-1 Worldwide will be imposed either in August or September, but notes that the category will return to current in October.

EB-2 India breaks into 2009, advancing almost three months to March 15, 2009 in July, and is likely to hold at that date through this fiscal year. Charlie has significant demand in his pending demand file for this category and chose this date to offset the low demand for numbers under the worldwide annual limit through mid-May. This advancement of the EB-2 India final action date will help ensure that all EB-2 visa numbers are used by the end of the fiscal year.

EB-2 Worldwide demand has been increasing in recent weeks, but it is too early to tell if it will be sustained. If this trend continues or increases, Charlie may need to impose a final action date in August or September. If that occurs, EB-2 Worldwide will return to current in October.

Demand for EB-2 China has been low in recent months despite the steady movement of the final action date. In July, EB-2 China will leap forward four months to January 1, 2015, in an effort to generate demand. EB-3 China demand is extremely high, attributable to hundreds of downgrades, and has reached its per country limit. This results in the final action dates for EB-2 China and EB-3 China flipping again-with EB-2 China now a full two years ahead of EB-3 China. Members should not expect any further advancement in EB-3 China this fiscal year, with the final action date returning to June 1, 2015 in October. Charlie will continue to watch this and notes that as the final action dates for EB-2 China and EB-3 China get closer together, we may see the downgrade trend of the last few years start to diminish.

As predicted, EB-4 Mexico exhausted its annual limit and in July, its final action date will track that of EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras at February 8, 2016. Charlie expects EB-4 Mexico to return to a final action date of October 22, 2016 in October but predicts that the final action date for EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras will likely hold for the first few months of the next fiscal year.

EB-4 India demand is increasing and may result in the imposition of a final action date in August or September. If that occurs, the category will return to current in October.

EB-5 China Non-Regional Center and Regional Center will hold at August 1, 2014 in July and is expected to remain at that date at least through September.

Family-Based Preference Categories

The family-based preference categories continue to advance modestly. Charlie notes low response rates to Agent of Choice Letters, particularly in FB-3, which is causing the dates to move somewhat more rapidly than they otherwise would.

[Positive]

I note the absence of any discussion on EB3 India and Eb3 ROW demand.

[almost]

No, I am a few days behind you. Also I am not even sure if my date will be current later this year. I would advise you wait till you become current or till you have few days left to reply to the RFE; before you send in your reply.
This way you have maximized your time for the validity of the medical reports (they are valid for an year after USCIS receives it). Good luck. I would advice also filling for your EAD renewal. RFE does NOT guarantee that you are going to get current soon. Also not sure whether you need to file form J. I would not do it if they have not specifically asked for it. Others can chime in.

Thanks Shekhar. Spoke to my lawyer (Murthy lawfirm) and he seemed to hold the view that the RFE should be responded to asap. I tend to agree with that as the date will become current in the next few months, worst case immediately into the next year (barring anything crazy happening offcourse). Also, the Jr attorney, who I discussed the matter with, held the view that I should file a form J (which hasn't been asked for) and I am still not certain on that.. especially with some applications running into needless complications. Any ideas anyone?
Thanks

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Thanks Shekhar. Spoke to my lawyer (Murthy lawfirm) and he seemed to hold the view that the RFE should be responded to asap. I tend to agree with that as the date will become current in the next few months, worst case immediately into the next year (barring anything crazy happening offcourse). Also, the Jr attorney, who I discussed the matter with, held the view that I should file a form J (which hasn't been asked for) and I am still not certain on that.. especially with some applications running into needless complications. Any ideas anyone?
Thanks

If Attorney is satisfied with the way Sup J is filled out and signed, then there should be no issue. I have had a successful experience with Murthy on my case. If I were you, I would prefer to mail in the responce to the RFE in the last 15 days of its due date.

[Jagan01]

Good luck to all who are current from today.

After several years of wait, I am current again. Reminds me of the days when I last got current and was comparatively young :)

[gs1968]

I'm afraid that I am probably posting in the wrong thread but I am looking for advice regarding recommendations for immigration attorneys. I'm working on getting a green card for my mother and as a long term member of this forum, I value the advice of fellow members very highly. It is a fairly straightforward case and she already has an approved I-130. Please help if possible

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I'm afraid that I am probably posting in the wrong thread but I am looking for advice regarding recommendations for immigration attorneys. I'm working on getting a green card for my mother and as a long term member of this forum, ****alue the advice of fellow members very highly. It is a fairly straightforward case and she already has an approved I-130. Please help if possible

IF I-130 is already approved and you have sufficient income proof, you don't need an attorney. But if you want to go through an attorney, Murthy is as good as any.

[Prabhas]

Guys,

I know I am posting in a wrong thread but for obvious reason that it gets the highest attention. My spouse went for H4 visa stamping on 25th June, 2018. I used Receipt # EAC : XX which is valid till Nov, 2018 under principal applicant info at the time of submitting DS-160 application. I booked a visa slot ( as the slots get filled on first come first basis ) during the month of April, 2018 . DS-160 forms cannot be changed once they are submitted. I got a new H1-B renewal in the month of May, 2018 which has a new validity until Jan, 2021.

We totally forgot that my spouse DS-160 had the old receipt # which is only valid till Nov, 2018 and all the while I made sure that she carried the new I797 and show the new I797 to the consular officer but didnt realize that we have to update new receipt # which can normally be done during finger printing at VFS services. At the time of interview the consular didnt ask for the new I797 and she asked a simple question and approved the visa. My spouse has the Visa stamped with validity Nov, 2018.

This raises a scenario similar to SKPanda's. Will there be an issue at the port of entry with the visa stamped validity vs the New I797 ( I94) validity which is till Jan, 2021. What should we explain the POE officer so he gives us the I-94 with new valid dates? Irony is I responded to SKPanda's situation with a suggestion not realizing that I could run into something similar....:D ...Heck Lord...not sure when we will get out of this h1-b limbo!!12yrs and still continues... Appreciate your any suggestions and also admins , please feel free to move this post where it fits.

V

[Jagan01]

Question to Gurus and other experienced people on this forum.

My PD is current and I was wondering whether it is a good idea to call USCIS and raise an SR stating that it is outside processing time. Any inputs that you guys can give about the best way to handle this situation. Whether I should take infopass appointment ? raise SR ? or just wait for my application to be picked ?

[iatiam]

Question to Gurus and other experienced people on this forum.

My PD is current and I was wondering whether it is a good idea to call USCIS and raise an SR stating that it is outside processing time. Any inputs that you guys can give about the best way to handle this situation. Whether I should take infopass appointment ? raise SR ? or just wait for my application to be picked ?

Have you received and RFE, yet? If not, give it some time say 1-2 weeks and then contact your congressman/woman

Iatiam

[YTeleven]

Guys,

I know I am posting in a wrong thread but for obvious reason that it gets the highest attention. My spouse went for H4 visa stamping on 25th June, 2018. I used Receipt # EAC : XX which is valid till Nov, 2018 under principal applicant info at the time of submitting DS-160 application. I booked a visa slot ( as the slots get filled on first come first basis ) during the month of April, 2018 . DS-160 forms cannot be changed once they are submitted. I got a new H1-B renewal in the month of May, 2018 which has a new validity until Jan, 2021.

We totally forgot that my spouse DS-160 had the old receipt # which is only valid till Nov, 2018 and all the while I made sure that she carried the new I797 and show the new I797 to the consular officer but didnt realize that we have to update new receipt # which can normally be done during finger printing at VFS services. At the time of interview the consular didnt ask for the new I797 and she asked a simple question and approved the visa. My spouse has the Visa stamped with validity Nov, 2018.

This raises a scenario similar to SKPanda's. Will there be an issue at the port of entry with the visa stamped validity vs the New I797 ( I94) validity which is till Jan, 2021. What should we explain the POE officer so he gives us the I-94 with new valid dates? Irony is I responded to SKPanda's situation with a suggestion not realizing that I could run into something similar....:D ...Heck Lord...not sure when we will get out of this h1-b limbo!!12yrs and still continues... Appreciate your any suggestions and also admins , please feel free to move this post where it fits.

V

Prabhas,
First of all let me tell you some facts regarding DS-160 this might be useful for others who visits to this thread in future.
You can submit as many DS-160 forms as you wish, there is no harm in that. Each one of these forms will have a validity periods (30 days or 90 days I don't remember exact period).
But you can use only one DS-160 (submitted one) at the time of booking VFS appointment and then on the day of finger printing you can replace with another DS-160 form of your choice, you need to tell the VFS guy to use the latest DS form number and details.
They will update your appointment record which is scheduled with US embassy the next day. Next day you can take the latest DS form with you for the consular interview.
Having said that ideally what you could have done is that your spouse should have taken a new DS-160 with new I-797 details in it on the VFS finger printing day to update the VFS appointment record.

Assuming that you know this at that time and you try to create a new DS-160 with new I-797 but I doubt that interview might not be valid as your petition might have a start date from Nov 2018 NOT May 2018.
You can't have a visa interview with a I-797 whose start date is 6 months in future from the Visa interview date. (Please check the start date on the new I-797)
So knowingly or unknowingly what you did is perfectly right (using old I-797 for the visa interview).

Now while your spouse travels back to US, at POE notify the CBP officer that you have latest renewed I-797 with a different expiry date on I-94 and ask the officer to give that date as the I-94 date NOT the Visa expiry date.
This should solve your problem otherwise your spouse ends up crossing the border again after Nov 2018 to get the new H4 Visa & I-94.

[skpanda]

Guys,

I know I am posting in a wrong thread but for obvious reason that it gets the highest attention. My spouse went for H4 visa stamping on 25th June, 2018. I used Receipt # EAC : XX which is valid till Nov, 2018 under principal applicant info at the time of submitting DS-160 application. I booked a visa slot ( as the slots get filled on first come first basis ) during the month of April, 2018 . DS-160 forms cannot be changed once they are submitted. I got a new H1-B renewal in the month of May, 2018 which has a new validity until Jan, 2021.

We totally forgot that my spouse DS-160 had the old receipt # which is only valid till Nov, 2018 and all the while I made sure that she carried the new I797 and show the new I797 to the consular officer but didnt realize that we have to update new receipt # which can normally be done during finger printing at VFS services. At the time of interview the consular didnt ask for the new I797 and she asked a simple question and approved the visa. My spouse has the Visa stamped with validity Nov, 2018.

This raises a scenario similar to SKPanda's. Will there be an issue at the port of entry with the visa stamped validity vs the New I797 ( I94) validity which is till Jan, 2021. What should we explain the POE officer so he gives us the I-94 with new valid dates? Irony is I responded to SKPanda's situation with a suggestion not realizing that I could run into something similar....:D ...Heck Lord...not sure when we will get out of this h1-b limbo!!12yrs and still continues... Appreciate your any suggestions and also admins , please feel free to move this post where it fits.

V

Hi Prabhas,

Sorry to hear about your situation...

Your wife should give the new H1B I797 to ensure I94 is valid till 2021.

The only issue in your situation is that after Nov 2018, if your wife goes out of US, She will need to go for stamping again.

If at this point your wife is still in the same city as the consulate that issued the visa then it may be worth trying explaining them the situation and may be they will consider issuing new visa. This is highly unlikely but worth a shot.

Hope things work for you!!

[Ind2009]

Guys,

I know I am posting in a wrong thread but for obvious reason that it gets the highest attention. My spouse went for H4 visa stamping on 25th June, 2018. I used Receipt # EAC : XX which is valid till Nov, 2018 under principal applicant info at the time of submitting DS-160 application. I booked a visa slot ( as the slots get filled on first come first basis ) during the month of April, 2018 . DS-160 forms cannot be changed once they are submitted. I got a new H1-B renewal in the month of May, 2018 which has a new validity until Jan, 2021.

We totally forgot that my spouse DS-160 had the old receipt # which is only valid till Nov, 2018 and all the while I made sure that she carried the new I797 and show the new I797 to the consular officer but didnt realize that we have to update new receipt # which can normally be done during finger printing at VFS services. At the time of interview the consular didnt ask for the new I797 and she asked a simple question and approved the visa. My spouse has the Visa stamped with validity Nov, 2018.

This raises a scenario similar to SKPanda's. Will there be an issue at the port of entry with the visa stamped validity vs the New I797 ( I94) validity which is till Jan, 2021. What should we explain the POE officer so he gives us the I-94 with new valid dates? Irony is I responded to SKPanda's situation with a suggestion not realizing that I could run into something similar....:D ...Heck Lord...not sure when we will get out of this h1-b limbo!!12yrs and still continues... Appreciate your any suggestions and also admins , please feel free to move this post where it fits.

V

Hi Prabhas

If your wife is still in India and is not scheduled to travel for atleast the next 2 weeks then you have a very simple option. Fill out a new DS-160 immediately with the new EAC # and validity. Since she already has a VISA stamping which is currently valid your wife does not need to go for another interview. You can use the drop box facility which does not require an appointment at VFS center and she can walk in any day as long as she has the DS-160 and the letter for confirmation for drop box legibility. She can drop off the passport and the new DS-160 plus other documents and get a new visa stamped and in her hand in 3-5 days max from the day you drop it at VFS. Hope this helps.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Looks like folks are tired of predictions and posting other stuff to pass time?:p

[imdeng]

Looks like folks are tired of predictions and posting other stuff to pass time?:p

Don't know if there is anything to predict. Spec of course keeps dropping awesome information - rest of us are just here keeping the board alive until the next flurry of activity. I don't mind the tangent chatter - most of the time somebody is in need and someone managed to help - this is better than 99 percent of our interactions with people.

[skpanda]

Looks like folks are tired of predictions and posting other stuff to pass time?:p

With due respect....

I do not agree with below part...

"posting other stuff to pass time"

People who are posting other stuff are in need of help or suggestions. Thats important atleast for them. Its not pass time. If we are able to help those I think it will serve the purpose of this forum. Help each other!!

Note: I do understand that this thread is dedicated for predictions. However this is the one that gets lots of traffic. Moderators do a great job in moving other topics to their own or existing threads.

Just my thought... no offence taken or given.

[skpanda]

Don't know if there is anything to predict. Spec of course keeps dropping awesome information - rest of us are just here keeping the board alive until the next flurry of activity. I don't mind the tangent chatter - most of the time somebody is in need and someone managed to help - this is better than 99 percent of our interactions with people.

Totally agree..

[HarepathekaIntezar]

With due respect....

I do not agree with below part...

"posting other stuff to pass time"

People who are posting other stuff are in need of help or suggestions. Thats important atleast for them. Its not pass time. If we are able to help those I think it will serve the purpose of this forum. Help each other!!

Note: I do understand that this thread is dedicated for predictions. However this is the one that gets lots of traffic. Moderators do a great job in moving other topics to their own or existing threads.

Just my thought... no offence taken or given.

Just because this gets lots of traffic is no reason to post non-prediction stuff on this thread. There are other threads like 'Live discussion' which are more appropriate to post other stuff. Let us not be hypocrites or trumpkins in condoning that behaviour. It sure gives satisfaction to help others on other topics, but again, there are other threads where they can post and we can answer those questions.

[skpanda]

Just because this gets lots of traffic is no reason to post non-prediction stuff on this thread. There are other threads like 'Live discussion' which are more appropriate to post other stuff. Let us not be hypocrites or trumpkins in condoning that behaviour. It sure gives satisfaction to help others on other topics, but again, there are other threads where they can post and we can answer those questions.

Simple advise for people who do not like the topics posted in the thread. Ignore those posts and move on with life. We have moderators who do a good job of removing irrelevant posts and warning people if they do not follow rules of the forum.

If you are a moderator, you are welcome to remove the posts and give them warnings in PM. If not, i recommend, ignore the posts that you do not like.

My last on this topic.

Peace!

[Blue_Yellow]

Apologize in advance to ask for guidance which is not related with prediction/thread.

I have recently received typical RFE from USCIS asking for Supplement J form. I see this form has field called SOC (Standard occupational Code) and Job description.

My role with my previous (Petitioner of Labor, 140 and 485) employer was as Engineer (EB2- Priority date May 2009, Got EAD in 2012).

Then in January 2016, I changed my job using AC21 with a new employer keeping same engineer position in 2016.

On January 2018 I have accepted new role as PM in the same domain of my job functionality.

My question for Supplement J is:does this SOC field must be same as per the labor and I-140 form? I believe in my situation the SOC will change as I changed my role as PM from Engineer.

Let me know what impact it can make in my case?

Regards,
AJ

[chennai09]

And for some reason, even if I try to create a new thread in the live discussions, it does not appear on the forum even after couple of days. So may be when people are looking for quick answers they post it here.

I too have a question and tried creating threads, but they are not showing up yet.

[iatiam]

Simple advise for people who do not like the topics posted in the thread. Ignore those posts and move on with life. We have moderators who do a good job of removing irrelevant posts and warning people if they do not follow rules of the forum.

If you are a moderator, you are welcome to remove the posts and give them warnings in PM. If not, i recommend, ignore the posts that you do not like.

My last on this topic.

Peace!

Agree with you! Also, can we not resort to name calling and other adversity. I am honestly sick and tired of politics everywhere - offline and online. Demonizing people who genuinely asks immigration questions is silly. Q's blog has been a breath of fresh air. People are civil and eager to help. Let's keep it that way.

More peace

Iatiam

[Prabhas]

Hi Prabhas,

Sorry to hear about your situation...

Your wife should give the new H1B I797 to ensure I94 is valid till 2021.

The only issue in your situation is that after Nov 2018, if your wife goes out of US, She will need to go for stamping again.

If at this point your wife is still in the same city as the consulate that issued the visa then it may be worth trying explaining them the situation and may be they will consider issuing new visa. This is highly unlikely but worth a shot.

Hope things work for you!!

Thanks for your response SK! Sorry, was traveling and couldnt respond back sooner.

We will be traveling back to USA together in August. So her visa will be valid to enter the country. I am hoping that we will have a smooth entry. I am also looking at the drop box option now she is eligible for. I am speaking to my lawyer about it. Will keep you all posted on how we handled the situation.

VB

[hope21]

Simple advise for people who do not like the topics posted in the thread. Ignore those posts and move on with life. We have moderators who do a good job of removing irrelevant posts and warning people if they do not follow rules of the forum.

If you are a moderator, you are welcome to remove the posts and give them warnings in PM. If not, i recommend, ignore the posts that you do not like.

My last on this topic.

Peace!

Resonate with you/ in agreement, leave them alone rather than asking them not to post let's not be rude, moderators can handle it.

[chennai09]

Hi, I have tried creating a different thread few days ago to ask my question, but it has not come up yet. So if moderators can move it that would be helpful.

I have a PD of May 2009, with approved EB2 I 140 from current company. I also have a EB3 I140 from previous company. I am already well beyond my 6th year H1B max out period.

With the current movement of dates, I believe its is possible that May 2009 may be current by end of this year. With new interview requirements, RFE timelines, even if I apply by dec 2018, it might take around a year to get the GC approval. But as luck has it, my current company is not doing great and I might move to a safer workplace before I get GC.

So my question is - while AOS is pending, and if the dates are current, will I be able to extend my H1 or transfer my H1 to a different company?

I know I could use EAD after 6 months to move, but I think its a risky move, incase AOS gets denied I might not have any recourse.

Thanks in Advance!!

[Prabhas]

Prabhas,
First of all let me tell you some facts regarding DS-160 this might be useful for others who visits to this thread in future.
You can submit as many DS-160 forms as you wish, there is no harm in that. Each one of these forms will have a validity periods (30 days or 90 days I don't remember exact period).
But you can use only one DS-160 (submitted one) at the time of booking VFS appointment and then on the day of finger printing you can replace with another DS-160 form of your choice, you need to tell the VFS guy to use the latest DS form number and details.
They will update your appointment record which is scheduled with US embassy the next day. Next day you can take the latest DS form with you for the consular interview.
Having said that ideally what you could have done is that your spouse should have taken a new DS-160 with new I-797 details in it on the VFS finger printing day to update the VFS appointment record.

Assuming that you know this at that time and you try to create a new DS-160 with new I-797 but I doubt that interview might not be valid as your petition might have a start date from Nov 2018 NOT May 2018.
You can't have a visa interview with a I-797 whose start date is 6 months in future from the Visa interview date. (Please check the start date on the new I-797)
So knowingly or unknowingly what you did is perfectly right (using old I-797 for the visa interview).

Now while your spouse travels back to US, at POE notify the CBP officer that you have latest renewed I-797 with a different expiry date on I-94 and ask the officer to give that date as the I-94 date NOT the Visa expiry date.
This should solve your problem otherwise your spouse ends up crossing the border again after Nov 2018 to get the new H4 Visa & I-94.


YT - Thats exactly what I missed as you pointed I should have done at the VFS finger printing time. I knew we can change DS-160 forms or even update the old DS-160 with the new Receipt #. It just didnt struck to me that I have to update the DS-160 but I kept insisting my spouse to show the new I797 to the officer.

And my new I797 infact started from 28th May-2018 ( Yeah you may realize USCIS stoppped or atleast iin my experience are giving extensions not from the date the current I797 expires but the from the time new Labor is applicable as there is change in work site. )

We are planning to leave things as is and deal with at the POE as you mentioned. Getting a final word with the lawyer and see what our best options are.

Truly appreciate your good thoughts to help the community and given our lengthy ordeals with being greened anytime soon , our H1-B community is prone to such human errors and it is good to be apprised about and knowledge shared!

Thanks again!

V

[skpanda]

Thanks for your response SK! Sorry, was traveling and couldnt respond back sooner.

We will be traveling back to USA together in August. So her visa will be valid to enter the country. I am hoping that we will have a smooth entry. I am also looking at the drop box option now she is eligible for. I am speaking to my lawyer about it. Will keep you all posted on how we handled the situation.

VB

Good Luck Prabhas! Keep us informed...how it goes! Fingers crossed!