EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[redsox2009]

Interesting points from the bulletin are

.Only EB-3 India and EB-2 China Final Dates moved.
.Only India EB-2 and EB-3, Filing dates moved.


Rest of the countries did not move, USCIS might not honor Filing dates, as Vietnam category is missing.

As always we have next month and hope next month bulletin will be better move than this month.

[GCdreamz]

Considering EB3I movement in April Bulletin, I think it's good movement for EB3I and good expectation for EB2I.

Don't know if EB2I Date of filing movement is based on expected Spill Over or to Build Inventory (think mostly for Inventory).

I think we might end the Fiscal Year with EB2I/EB3I dates at Apr09 (if inventory buildup is done for both the categories).

[EB3Iwaiting]

Considering EB3I movement in April Bulletin, I think it's good movement for EB3I and good expectation for EB2I.

Don't know if EB2I Date of filing movement is based on expected Spill Over or to Build Inventory (think mostly for Inventory).

I think we might end the Fiscal Year with EB2I/EB3I dates at Apr09 (if inventory buildup is done for both the categories).

Inventory build up is not required for EB2I. CO has pretty good idea on EB2I inventory till May 2010. The filing date movement is useless in terms of actual filing as USCIS does not honor those dates. Maybe he moved the date expecting some movement towards the end of FY?

I did notice the EB2I filing date movement, so will let the experts chime in on that. I also do think that EB3I may catch up with EB2I by the end of this FY.

[GCdreamz]

From May 2009 to July 2010, I see around 26K Perm Applications were approved for India.

https://www.permchecker.com/search/startDate=20090501/endDate=20100710/country=INDIA

1. Is this number 26K reflect EB2 & EB3 only?
2. Is it correct to estimate 26K*2=52K as demand (considering spouse being counted in the quota)?
3. Conservative estimate of PD July 2010 being current - Oct 2019? Reasonable?

Please share better sources if you any...

[Jagan01]

Inventory build up is not required for EB2I. CO has pretty good idea on EB2I inventory till May 2010. The filing date movement is useless in terms of actual filing as USCIS does not honor those dates. Maybe he moved the date expecting some movement towards the end of FY?

I did notice the EB2I filing date movement, so will let the experts chime in on that. I also do think that EB3I may catch up with EB2I by the end of this FY.

It will be interesting to see what people think.

My take, people with PDs before Apr 09 will get current in EB2 before EB3. As a result they would stay with EB2.

It will be interesting to see what people with PDs in or after Apr 09 do.

In families where both spouses have their PDs, they might just go with one staying in EB2 and another in EB3. Interesting to see what families with inly one primary applicant and PD on or after Apr 09 do.

[srimurthy]

From May 2009 to July 2010, I see around 26K Perm Applications were approved for India.

https://www.permchecker.com/search/startDate=20090501/endDate=20100710/country=INDIA

1. Is this number 26K reflect EB2 & EB3 only?
2. Is it correct to estimate 26K*2=52K as demand (considering spouse being counted in the quota)?
3. Conservative estimate of PD July 2010 being current - Oct 2019? Reasonable?

Please share better sources if you any...

GCdreamz, where do you see 52K - (2 * 2800) = 46.4K numbers available and coming from? I don't see that many coming from EB3 ROW spill over that will help EB3I, but not EB2I. So I doubt there is any change that Jul 2010 would be current by Oct 19.
Unless there is less filing in EB1 because of interviews and EB1C reduction in numbers there is little chance for any spill over for EB2I
Others can correct me.

[iatiam]

GCdreamz, where do you see 52K - (2 * 2800) = 46.4K numbers available and coming from? I don't see that many coming from EB3 ROW spill over that will help EB3I, but not EB2I. So I doubt there is any change that Jul 2010 would be current by Oct 19.
Unless there is less filing in EB1 because of interviews and EB1C reduction in numbers there is little chance for any spill over for EB2I
Others can correct me.

Spillover for EB2I will come from EB3I. If you recall, Spec said the demand data for DOS will come when USCIS adjucates a 485 and requests a visa number. In order to do that there needs to be an interview to be conducted by field offices. Currently all field offices have an interview wait time of 10 to 12 months average. CO can move EB3I dates to next century but there is no point. It too little, too late.

Expect a bumper year for EB2I and another bad year for EB3I. The only silver lining would be that the dates have progressed beyond Aug 2007 which will give some relief.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

From May 2009 to July 2010, I see around 26K Perm Applications were approved for India.

https://www.permchecker.com/search/startDate=20090501/endDate=20100710/country=INDIA

1. Is this number 26K reflect EB2 & EB3 only?
2. Is it correct to estimate 26K*2=52K as demand (considering spouse being counted in the quota)?
3. Conservative estimate of PD July 2010 being current - Oct 2019? Reasonable?

Please share better sources if you any...

I think Permchecker.com only shows the number of PERM certifications for the period, not the number for the PD.

You'd be better looking at the figures (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India) in this forum, which attempt to do that.

May 2009 to July 2010 gives nearer 20.5k.

In making any calculation, you would need to add EB2-NIW and Schedule A cases and deduct any cases that were approved when the dates were last current for these PD's.

[skpanda]

EB2 PD Dec 2010. If EB3 becomes current for my PD, there is no doubt in my mind that i will port down to get EAD and AP.

Meanwhile, my EB2 140 application is still there. If EB2 becomes current for my PD, I will file I485 for EB2 as well.

Which ever category gives me GC first.. i will take it.

Shouldn't this be obvious choice for most? What are the reasons that will keep people from doing above?





It will be interesting to see what people think.

My take, people with PDs before Apr 09 will get current in EB2 before EB3. As a result they would stay with EB2.

It will be interesting to see what people with PDs in or after Apr 09 do.

In families where both spouses have their PDs, they might just go with one staying in EB2 and another in EB3. Interesting to see what families with inly one primary applicant and PD on or after Apr 09 do.

[EB2-03252009]

looks like eb2-row trackitt approvals slowed down...

[srimurthy]

Spillover for EB2I will come from EB3I. If you recall, Spec said the demand data for DOS will come when USCIS adjucates a 485 and requests a visa number. In order to do that there needs to be an interview to be conducted by field offices. Currently all field offices have an interview wait time of 10 to 12 months average. CO can move EB3I dates to next century but there is no point. It too little, too late.

Expect a bumper year for EB2I and another bad year for EB3I. The only silver lining would be that the dates have progressed beyond Aug 2007 which will give some relief.

Iatiam
As I understand the spillover can be across or spill down, so there is no way the EB3I numbers are coming over to EB2I

[iatiam]

As I understand the spillover can be across or spill down, so there is no way the EB3I numbers are coming over to EB2I

So where did all the wasted EB3I numbers go all these years. It has to go somewhere.

[redsox2009]

Q2 Perm Stats were released.

Interesting points are PERM filings are down, but overall perm filings are UP.

Over all Prevailing wage are down, hopefully next quarter also PERM filings will be down.

Under Visa classifications, PERM applicants with H1 visa category are down. Remaining categories did not see much change.

https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PerformanceData/2018/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY2018_Q2.pdf

https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PerformanceData/2018/PW_Selected_Statistics_FY2018_Q2.pdf

[Spectator]

Q,

I tried to update the PERM Stats for Q2 in the forum.

I find I no longer have the privileges necessary to upload the documents needed.

I had deleted some Q1 images before finding out, so some posts no longer have the information.

Please let me know when I am able to upload images again.

Thanks

Spec

[dorritos]

Hello Gurus..
My EB3 PD is current as per May bulletin but I do not even have labor filed with my current employer (I know.. I'm not proud of myself on how I handled this). My previous employer who I have my labor and I140 approved with are not hiring h1s anymore. So switching back to them to continue my old gc is a long shot. Any advise on what are the best options in this situation. Thanks for reading and appreciate any advise.

[qesehmk]

Hi Spec

you are already a moderator in the forum. So not sure why. I will check.

Q
Q,

I tried to update the PERM Stats for Q2 in the forum.

I find I no longer have the privileges necessary to upload the documents needed.

I had deleted some Q1 images before finding out, so some posts no longer have the information.

Please let me know when I am able to upload images again.

Thanks

Spec

[gcq]

Hello Gurus..
My EB3 PD is current as per May bulletin but I do not even have labor filed with my current employer (I know.. I'm not proud of myself on how I handled this). My previous employer who I have my labor and I140 approved with are not hiring h1s anymore. So switching back to them to continue my old gc is a long shot. Any advise on what are the best options in this situation. Thanks for reading and appreciate any advise.

All you need to file your I-485 is an offer letter from your original employer with an intention to hire you once your GC is approved ( Others please correct me if I am wrong). GC is for future employment. They don't have to hire you now. All they need to give you is an offer letter, which I guess should not be an issue if they like to hire you once GC is approved.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec

you are already a moderator in the forum. So not sure why. I will check.

Q

Q,

Thanks, I appreciate it.

Obviously, I didn't have a problem approx 3 months ago, when I last updated the figures.

The error I get is:


You do not have permission to perform this action. Please refresh the page and login before trying again.

If I refresh the page, I am logged in.

I've also tried logging out and back in again without success.

[dorritos]

All you need to file your I-485 is an offer letter from your original employer with an intention to hire you once your GC is approved ( Others please correct me if I am wrong). GC is for future employment. They don't have to hire you now. All they need to give you is an offer letter, which I guess should not be an issue if they like to hire you once GC is approved.

Thank you gcq for your input, I will explore that option. And will continue to seek advises, if others have anything else to say or add.

[GCdreamz]

I think Permchecker.com only shows the number of PERM certifications for the period, not the number for the PD.

You'd be better looking at the figures (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/85-PERM-Breakdowns-For-PD-(including-Monthly-Breakdown)-for-China-amp-India) in this forum, which attempt to do that.

May 2009 to July 2010 gives nearer 20.5k.

In making any calculation, you would need to add EB2-NIW and Schedule A cases and deduct any cases that were approved when the dates were last current for these PD's.

Thank you Spec for the reply. Please help me understanding the numbers better.

In your forum, adding the numbers from May 2009 to July 2010 gave me nearly 17,600. Did you add estimated/actuals of EB2-NIW & Schedule A cases to get approx 20.5K? If not approx how many EB2-NIW & Schedule A cases will be there per month?

Approved cases last time dates were current + husband/wife having priority date + Relocation back to India etc though might be small fraction is a good addition to the hope of being closer. I am these scenarios add up to 5% to 10% of the demand.

Thanks for your help!!!

[GCdreamz]

Spillover for EB2I will come from EB3I. If you recall, Spec said the demand data for DOS will come when USCIS adjucates a 485 and requests a visa number. In order to do that there needs to be an interview to be conducted by field offices. Currently all field offices have an interview wait time of 10 to 12 months average. CO can move EB3I dates to next century but there is no point. It too little, too late.

Expect a bumper year for EB2I and another bad year for EB3I. The only silver lining would be that the dates have progressed beyond Aug 2007 which will give some relief.

Iatiam

"Expect a bumper year for EB2I" - this will clear lot of Inventory and setup good trend for Oct 18. Lets hope for the best!!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Spillover for EB2I will come from EB3I. Expect a bumper year for EB2I and another bad year for EB3I.

Interesting observation


If you recall, Spec said the demand data for DOS will come when USCIS adjucates a 485 and requests a visa number. In order to do that there needs to be an interview to be conducted by field offices. Currently all field offices have an interview wait time of 10 to 12 months average. CO can move EB3I dates to next century but there is no point. It too little, too late.

This is the part that I am not clear. If Interview is mandatory, what you say does make sense. But I still see ROW cases being approved in as little as 6 months. So, I think, Interview may not be mandatory if the Background check comes out clean. Let us see how it pans out. It will definitely be a bumper movement for EB2I. I expect almost 6-8K movement if interview is mandatory.

[srimurthy]

So where did all the wasted EB3I numbers go all these years. It has to go somewhere.

Obviously they were misallocated because of inefficiency of the department. And about the unused visas, you can read the immigrant visas info at:
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/employment-based-immigrant-visas.html

And also on page 3 of this thread, iataim has given an explanation on how visa no were allocated to EB2I over the years and why they dried up because of increase and more filing in EB1C.

[Spectator]

Thank you Spec for the reply. Please help me understanding the numbers better.

In your forum, adding the numbers from May 2009 to July 2010 gave me nearly 17,600. Did you add estimated/actuals of EB2-NIW & Schedule A cases to get approx 20.5K? If not approx how many EB2-NIW & Schedule A cases will be there per month?

Approved cases last time dates were current + husband/wife having priority date + Relocation back to India etc though might be small fraction is a good addition to the hope of being closer. I am these scenarios add up to 5% to 10% of the demand.

Thanks for your help!!!
With the figures I have, here is how I reached the PERM Certification figure I used.

The figures are for India only.

Priority ---------- No. --- Cumulative
May 2009 -------- 1,279 -------- 1,279
June 2009 ------- 1,283 -------- 2,562
July 2009 ------- 1,134 -------- 3,696
August 2009 ----- 1,095 -------- 4,791
September 2009 -- 1,344 -------- 6,135
October 2009 ---- 1,363 -------- 7,498
November 2009 --- 1,202 -------- 8,700
December 2009 --- 1,336 ------- 10,036
January 2010 ---- 1,320 ------- 11,356
February 2010 --- 1,182 ------- 12,538
March 2010 ------ 1,588 ------- 14,126
April 2010 ------ 1,492 ------- 15,618
May 2010 -------- 1,503 ------- 17,121
June 2010 ------- 1,867 ------- 18,988
July 2010 ------- 1,598 ------- 20,586

The above figures do not make any allowance for NIW or Schedule A. You will have to use your best estimation for these. I've never found any information about NIW and Schedule A has not been shown separately for about a decade.

Hope that helps.

[Umesh1209]

Spec - Thanks for the numbers. Are these the perm numbers or pending 485s(which include spouse & dependents)?

[shekhar_kuruk]

Interesting observation



This is the part that I am not clear. If Interview is mandatory, what you say does make sense. But I still see ROW cases being approved in as little as 6 months. So, I think, Interview may not be mandatory if the Background check comes out clean. Let us see how it pans out. It will definitely be a bumper movement for EB2I. I expect almost 6-8K movement if interview is mandatory.

Also I think anybody from EB3I who will be current in the next month's bulletin will have a hard time getting approved because of the mandatory interview. All they are getting is EAD/AP and will probably get greened in a year if the dates do not retrogress.
I hope that the spillover from EB3I flows to EB2I but I am not so sure. I think EB1I will also get some share of it.
Spec or Q, can any one of you share your thoughts on this. Even if we do get half of it, it should be move EB2I a few months. Also at some point, may be in the last quarter, the CO will have to move the dates for EB2I a little more so that none of the EB2 visas are wasted.
The reason being the interview requirement for EB2ROW and the wait times. My 2 cents.

[iatiam]

Interesting observation



This is the part that I am not clear. If Interview is mandatory, what you say does make sense. But I still see ROW cases being approved in as little as 6 months. So, I think, Interview may not be mandatory if the Background check comes out clean. Let us see how it pans out. It will definitely be a bumper movement for EB2I. I expect almost 6-8K movement if interview is mandatory.

Interview is mandatory if the filing was done after March 2017. Here is the USCIS link,
https://www.uscis.gov/news/news-releases/uscis-to-expand-in-person-interview-requirements-for-certain-permanent-residency-applicants

Iatiam

[iatiam]

Obviously they were misallocated because of inefficiency of the department. And about the unused visas, you can read the immigrant visas info at:
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/immigrate/employment-based-immigrant-visas.html

And also on page 3 of this thread, iataim has given an explanation on how visa no were allocated to EB2I over the years and why they dried up because of increase and more filing in EB1C.

Inefficiency or not, visas were wrongly allocated to non-EB3I categories. This is going to happen this year as well because of the interview requirement. There is no way USCIS can schedule an interview in five months because of the backlog at the centers.

Iatiam

[EB3Iwaiting]

Inefficiency or not, visas were wrongly allocated to non-EB3I categories. This is going to happen this year as well because of the interview requirement. There is no way USCIS can schedule an interview in five months because of the backlog at the centers.

Iatiam

Which is why people are speculating that the excess GCs from EB3I will be moved to EB2I or EB1I to avoid wastage. This has already happened the past few years as CO did not aggressively move EB3I dates early in the year.

[srimurthy]

Which is why people are speculating that the excess GCs from EB3I will be moved to EB2I or EB1I to avoid wastage. This has already happened the past few years as CO did not aggressively move EB3I dates early in the year.

If the case is of visas availability because of interviews, ideally they should go to EB1 from EB3I, but since all new EB1C filings also would need interviews, I am not sure whether they will be wasted or allocated to EB2I as EB2I has a lot in the line when people files 485s in 2012. So may be good news if they are allocated to EB2I.

[suninphx]

Hi Spec,

There is a growing chatter(mainly trackitt) about possibility EB3 visas being allocated to EB1/2-I to avoid visa wastage this FY. What's your take? Do you see a possibility of that happening? I know this has happened in the past but numbers this time around could be significantly higher, so I am wondering.

[idliman]

Hi Spec,

There is a growing chatter(mainly trackitt) about possibility EB3 visas being allocated to EB1/2-I to avoid visa wastage this FY. What's your take? Do you see a possibility of that happening? I know this has happened in the past but numbers this time around could be significantly higher, so I am wondering.
In my understanding, it is totally under the discretion of Charlie Oppenheim (CO). He can move the dates very late like last year and claim that not many people applied and got approved. The fact that he moved the dates late is not an issue at all (for USCIS). It is like being stopped by the cops while driving; they can say anything to you and get away with it.

Most of the decisions are driven by the mood of the administration. I believe CO is a career official and has to make his political appointee bosses satisfied and not show preference one way or other. Given the setting, he will play it safe. He is not going to move the dates till it is very late.

[canada]

When do you guys think EB2 India August 28,2009 will be current?

I missed the boat in 2012 of getting EAD/ AP due to delay in birth certificates for myself and spouse.

Thanks

[suninphx]

In my understanding, it is totally under the discretion of Charlie Oppenheim (CO).

Not disagreeing with this. Just wondering if EB3 visas will be allocated to EB1-2 ( not even sure under which clause) ...or visas will be wasted.

[EB3Iwaiting]

These are the 2016 Visa Allocations:

1337

These are the 2017 Visa Allocations:

1338

Credit to Spec for pulling these numbers.

Both years, EB3 were the biggest losers as they did not get their 40k share and numbers were sent to EB1. If not for these, what is happening with EB3I now should have happened 2 years ago. But now there is the added interview constraint which adds to the processing time. So, if the numbers are not given to EB3I, where will they go?

[Spectator]

I've managed to update the PERM Data in the FACTS & DATA (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/forumdisplay.php/59-PERM-Labor-Data) section with the Q2 FY2018 figures.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

There is a growing chatter(mainly trackitt) about possibility EB3 visas being allocated to EB1/2-I to avoid visa wastage this FY. What's your take? Do you see a possibility of that happening? I know this has happened in the past but numbers this time around could be significantly higher, so I am wondering.

suninphx,

I'm a bit hesitant to answer this question.

I hope we do not get into a situation where EB visas are wasted because EB3 has insufficient demand before the FY ends. FB can't gain any advantage next FY, even if they are made available.

Contrary to the view that CO has great discretion, I believe he is bound by what the INA allows him to do.

Let's first look at the Family Based (FB) allocation rules for spillover:

I've simplified the extracts from the INA by replacing paragraph numbers with the relevant FB or EB class to aid readability.



(a) Preference Allocation for Family-Sponsored Immigrants. - Aliens subject to the worldwide level specified in section 201(c) for family-sponsored immigrants shall be allotted visas as follows:

(FB1) Unmarried sons and daughters of citizens. - Qualified immigrants who are the unmarried sons or daughters of citizens of the United States shall be allocated visas in a number not to exceed 23,400, plus any visas not required for FB4.

(FB2) Spouses and unmarried sons and unmarried daughters of permanent resident aliens. - Qualified immigrants -

(A) who are the spouses or children of an alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence, or

(B) who are the unmarried sons or unmarried daughters (but are not the children) of an alien lawfully admitted for permanent residence, shall be allocated visas in a number not to exceed 114,200, plus the number (if any) by which such worldwide level exceeds 226,000, plus any visas not required for FB1; except that not less than 77 percent of such visa numbers shall be allocated to aliens described in subparagraph (A).

(FB3) Married sons and married daughters of citizens. - Qualified immigrants who are the married sons or married daughters of citizens of the United States shall be allocated visas in a number not to exceed 23,400, plus any visas not required for FB1 and FB2.

(FB4) Brothers and sisters of citizens. - Qualified immigrants who are the brothers or sisters of citizens of the United States, if such citizens are at least 21 years of age, shall be allocated visas in a number not to exceed 65,000, plus any visas not required for FB1 through FB3.


This describes a circular system, whereby spare visas can fall down the FB classes and then back up to the top if necessary:

FB1 ---> FB2 ---> FB3 ---> FB4 -
|__________________<____________|


The law specifically allows unused visas in FB4 to fall up FB1, where they could then fall down to any other FB class that required it if necessary.


Here's the Employment Based rules:


(b) Preference Allocation for Employment-Based Immigrants. - Aliens subject to the worldwide level specified in section 201(d) for employment-based immigrants in a fiscal year shall be allotted visas as follows:

(EB1) Priority workers. - Visas shall first be made available in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for EB4 and EB5, to qualified immigrants who are aliens described in any of the following subparagraphs (A) through (C):

(EB2) Aliens who are members of the professions holding advanced degrees or aliens of exceptional ability. -

(A) In general. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for EB1, to qualified immigrants who are members of the professions holding advanced degrees or their equivalent or who because of their exceptional ability in the sciences, arts, or business, will substantially benefit prospectively the national economy, cultural or educational interests, or welfare of the United States, an d whose services in the sciences, arts, professions, or business are sought by an employer in the United States.

(EB3) Skilled workers, professionals, and other workers.-

(A) In general. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 28.6 percent of such worldwide level, plus any visas not required for EB1 and EB2, to the following classes of aliens who are not described in paragraph (2):

(EB4) Certain special immigrants. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified special immigrants described in section 101(a)(27) (other than those described in subparagraph (A) or (B) thereof), of which not more than 5,000 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants described in subclause (II) or (III) of section 101(a)(27)(C)(ii) , 2/ and not more than 100 may be made available in any fiscal year to special immigrants, excluding spouses and children, who are described in section 101(a)(27)(M) .

(EB5) Employment creation. -

(A) In general. - Visas shall be made available, in a number not to exceed 7.1 percent of such worldwide level, to qualified immigrants seeking to enter the United States for the purpose of engaging in a new commercial enterprise (including a limited partnership)--


This describes a system where unused EB4 & EB5 visas can fall up to EB1. Unused visas can fall down from EB1 to EB2 or EB3 and unused visas in EB2 can fall down to EB3.

EB4 & EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3


There isn't a stated mechanism (unlike for FB) for unused visas in EB3 to be used by any other EB class (EB1, EB2, EB4 or EB5).

I certainly have a worry that CO cannot just arbitrarily give unused EB3 visas to other EB categories.

Even if he does find a way, then all the other categories have retrogression for some Countries, so he would have to decide how to distribute the numbers.

I'll watch what happens with interest.

[mesan123]

Hi Q, Spec,

Posting here after a long time. I have a question pertaining to EBI catogery, I see EB1 only for international Managers/Executives... Does a Person qualify if he is working on Managerial/Executive in the new job he is in and in previous employment also managed people. But the employment is with in USA. CAn he/she apply GC in EB1 category?

Can some one answer this query? Thank you in advance

[newyorker123]

Hi Q, Spec,

Posting here after a long time. I have a question pertaining to EBI catogery, I see EB1 only for international Managers/Executives... Does a Person qualify if he is working on Managerial/Executive in the new job he is in and in previous employment also managed people. But the employment is with in USA. CAn he/she apply GC in EB1 category?

Can some one answer this query? Thank you in advance

What you are talking about is EB1C - Multinational Managers, and as the term notes, you need to be outside of country for 1 year out of last 3 years. And you need to be in an overseas arm of the same organization.
Of course there are EB1A / EB1B which have completely different qualification criteria altogether.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB4 & EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3

[/FONT]
There isn't a stated mechanism (unlike for FB) for unused visas in EB3 to be used by any other EB class (EB1, EB2, EB4 or EB5).

I certainly have a worry that CO cannot just arbitrarily give unused EB3 visas to other EB categories.

Even if he does find a way, then all the other categories have retrogression for some Countries, so he would have to decide how to distribute the numbers.

I'll watch what happens with interest.

Thanks for the response Spec. It is clear that visas flow from EB1 to EB2 to EB3 to EB4 to EB5 and then back up to EB1.

But then how can we explain the visa allocations from FY 2016 and FY 2017 as I posted just a few posts ago? For FY 2016, it certainly looks clear and EB2 and EB3 did not get their 40k share and that was given to EB1 who ended up getting 3.7k more. EB2 got some 900 less and EB3 got around 2500 less.

In FY 2017, EB1 again got 1.8k more and EB3 got around 2.3k less, some 400 visas were wasted. As EB4 and EB5 got their allocated shares, it certainly looks like EB2 and EB3 visas were taken out and given to EB1.

[GCdreamz]

With the figures I have, here is how I reached the PERM Certification figure I used.

Hope that helps.


Thank you Spec!!!

[Spectator]

Thanks for the response Spec. It is clear that visas flow from EB1 to EB2 to EB3 to EB4 to EB5 and then back up to EB1.

This is not the case. There is no stated mechanism in the INA for "EB3 to EB4 to EB5 and then back up to EB1". It ends at EB2 to EB3.

This is in direct contrast to FB where there is a clearly stated route in the INA from FB4 to FB1.


But then how can we explain the visa allocations from FY 2016 and FY 2017 as I posted just a few posts ago? For FY 2016, it certainly looks clear and EB2 and EB3 did not get their 40k share and that was given to EB1 who ended up getting 3.7k more. EB2 got some 900 less and EB3 got around 2500 less.

In FY 2017, EB1 again got 1.8k more and EB3 got around 2.3k less, some 400 visas were wasted. As EB4 and EB5 got their allocated shares, it certainly looks like EB2 and EB3 visas were taken out and given to EB1.

It is relatively easy to get the timings of retrogression wrong for EB1-IC, which leads to more visas being allocated than allowed. CO might not have sufficient warning at the end of the FY to also retrogress EB1-WW.

Since the overall EB limit still applies (often 140k), then an over allocation in one category will result in fewer allocations to some other categories.

As well as your examples, essentially the same situation benefited EB2-IC in 2012, but the damage was confined to EB2.

The obvious solution would be to have a lesser, but permanent retrogression of EB1-IC to control visa issuance over the entire FY.

The above scenario would certainly give the impression that EB2 and EB3 visas were taken out and given to EB1, but it is not necessarily the case that they actually were.

The above situation is, IMO, entirely different to deliberately moving visas from EB3 to other categories, if the law doesn't allow it.

For EB2-I to benefit, CO would have to move the FAD forward deliberately. It cannot be a mistake or bad timing. He can't finesse it to look like either.

If, somewhere in the INA or CFR, there is a mechanism which allows this, then CO would probably also have to spread any spare EB3 visa numbers across EB1, EB2, EB4 and EB5 in a proportionate manner (i.e. 40:40:10:10) given they all have retrogression of at least one Country.

As I said before, I await the outcome with a fair amount of interest. It's a test case of what CO can and can't do. I hope he finds a way, otherwise the visas will be completely wasted.

[suninphx]

Spec,

Thank you so very much for the detailed responses.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thank you so very much for the detailed responses.

suninphx,

You are welcome.

Sincerely hoping to be wrong (or at least have missed something important) on this occasion.

[suninphx]

suninphx,

You are welcome.

Sincerely hoping to be wrong (or at least have missed something important) on this occasion.


Spec,

I understand. Any amount of visa wastage would be really really unfortunate at this point.

On a side note, I keep reading about interview and subsequent visa approval experiences specially for EB-ROW and whole process seems to have really slowed down. In some cases its taking months for GC to get approved after interview. (Getting interview date is another hurdle).

This probably would give some horizontal spillover to EB2I but who knows.

In either case, I would like to see sizable chunk of RFEs being issued at least until Jun 09 for EB2I if any of this were to happen.

Thanks again!

[EB3Iwaiting]

As I said before, I await the outcome with a fair amount of interest. It's a test case of what CO can and can't do. I hope he finds a way, otherwise the visas will be completely wasted.

Thanks for the detailed response Spec. Certainly appreciate it. I completely agree with you and sincerely hope that CO finds a way to not waste the visas.

[bikenlalan]

April 2018 485 Pending Inventory Published
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_April_201 8.pdf

April 2018 January 2018 Net Reduction
EB2-I 17658 18448 790
EB3-I 2917 4269 1352

[EB3Iwaiting]

Pending inventory is useless now. The applications have now moved to field offices for interviews. No way to tell how many are in ROW or even afterwards how many in EB3I waiting post July 07.

[oraclept]

things happen. let them laugh or discriminate you. All we have to stand with hope and no fear. It is sad and hard to do but takes time.
I dont care if anyone thinks of me differently.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I sympathise with you all, but remember this is a EB2-3 Predictions thread!!:p

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Pending inventory is useless now. The applications have now moved to field offices for interviews. No way to tell how many are in ROW or even afterwards how many in EB3I waiting post July 07.

So are you sayin the PI only has cases that have not moved to Field Offices. Would they be the cases filed before October 1, 2017? How do we get the Field Office Inventory?

[texas_]

April 2018 485 Pending Inventory Published
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_April_201 8.pdf

April 2018 January 2018 Net Reduction
EB2-I 17658 18448 790
EB3-I 2917 4269 1352

Haha, EB1 reduced crazy. I am not sure what is going on??? Hmm

[qesehmk]

Perhaps this ....???

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=59162&viewfull=1#post59162


Haha, EB1 reduced crazy. I am not sure what is going on??? Hmm

[texas_]

No it doesn't look like S-P Inc AAO decision affecting overall EB1 reduction. It's a something else. Numbers have been fudged up to a great extent.
How come overall EB Inventory drastically reduced without changing much to 48K. Unbelievable

[bluelabel]

Haha, EB1 reduced crazy. I am not sure what is going on??? Hmm

April one is for All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers and January one is for All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers and Field Offices. If you notice EB1, EB2 and EB3 in April one, pending inventory after March 2017 is zero as all pending applications are moved to NBC or field offices for mandated interviews.

EB2I inventory in 2008 is reduced by ~900 from Jan to April but It's difficult analyze and estimate spillovers without field offices inventory and this document is not of much help.

[Vtaneja]

My priority date is Feb 2011. What's the prediction on it being current for eb2I?

[texas_]

Perhaps this ....???

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=59162&viewfull=1#post59162

I sincerely apologize with all due respect to anyone whom ever concerned.

[texas_]

That means from January 2018 there were total close to 100,000 pending EB green cards. Now its close to 48K. So 52K are awaiting in line for mandated Interviews from Jan thru April 2018.

I doubt that the pending inventory at the service center for 48K would increase unless, there is inventory build up occurs

[Vtaneja]

My priority date for EB2I is Feb, 2011. What's the prediction of my faster being current?

[qesehmk]

I sincerely apologize with all due respect to anyone whom ever concerned.
Hey Texas - what are you apologizing for!

This forum is meant for establishing clarity. None of us know why things move the way they do. We can only make intelligent guesses based on available facts and information.

So speak up your mind and don't worry a thing.

[texas_]

Hey Texas - what are you apologizing for!

This forum is meant for establishing clarity. None of us know why things move the way they do. We can only make intelligent guesses based on available facts and information.

So speak up your mind and don't worry a thing.


Understood!

[qesehmk]

Understood!

Sorry I am too busy to respond and hence I did not respond to your argument earlier.

My silence means either I agree or don't have much to add to the conversation. If I had disagreed - I would never keep silent!

[texas_]

No one here would be able to predict but I hope we all would get it eventually.

[tatikonda]

Hi Spec/Q and Other Gurus,

Since we are seeing drastic reduction of inventory data, can we expect some forward movement in EB2-India.
I know that, EB2-I inventory reduce only few hundreds but overall EB2 category is reduced by lot. moreover USCIS may need more applications to keep them busy?

Also, if not "Final Action Dates", At least "Filing Dates" for EB2-India needs to move forward. It is still in April 2009.
BTW, What happened to the case they files against moving "Filing Dates" back in Oct 2015.

Please share your thoughts.

Thanks
Tatikonda.


April 2018 485 Pending Inventory Published
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/I-485%20Employment-Based%20Inventory%20Statistics/Employment-based_I-485_Pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_April_201 8.pdf

April 2018 January 2018 Net Reduction
EB2-I 17658 18448 790
EB3-I 2917 4269 1352

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Pending inventory is useless now. The applications have now moved to field offices for interviews. No way to tell how many are in ROW or even afterwards how many in EB3I waiting post July 07.

That does not make sense bro. You are saying the applications have moved to field offices for interviews, that means they are current and waiting to be approved. If that is true, then how come EB3ROW 2017 cases are not showing up in the Inventory at all, but older cases are showing up in the Inventory? Per your logic, the older cases should have moved out to Field Offices first as they are current and waiting to be approved, whereas the new applications should show up in the inventory (although they are also current, but are not supposed to be approved before the older cases)!

[EB3Iwaiting]

That does not make sense bro. You are saying the applications have moved to field offices for interviews, that means they are current and waiting to be approved. If that is true, then how come EB3ROW 2017 cases are not showing up in the Inventory at all, but older cases are showing up in the Inventory? Per your logic, the older cases should have moved out to Field Offices first as they are current and waiting to be approved, whereas the new applications should show up in the inventory (although they are also current, but are not supposed to be approved before the older cases)!

Not sure what they are doing but how is it that after March 2017, there are no numbers? It's as if they have never filed.

[tatikonda]

Hi,

Inventory data shows in table "All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers as of April 2018"
But

1) I see no cases in 2017 and 2018 for EB3. How is it possible, this is 2018 April and EB3-ROW is current all the time.
2) I see only 703 is EB2, How is it possible ? We are 2018.
3) Finally, EB1 ZERO CASES in 2018.

I guess, I am missing something very obvious.

1339


Not sure what they are doing but how is it that after March 2017, there are no numbers? It's as if they have never filed.

[srimurthy]

Hi,

Inventory data shows in table "All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers as of April 2018"
But
1339

Just move the header one column left (years) and console and satisfy ourselves and our prying eyes ;-)

[redsox2009]

2018 Mar Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
119
21
09
03
29
03
162
346


EB2
04
05
03
33
119
04
148
316


EB3
91
88
41
451
52
03
298
1024


EB4
07
09
00
00
01
00
114
131


EB5
214
23
02
00
92
140
152
623


Total
435
146
55
487
293
150
874
2440

[redsox2009]

Hi,

Inventory data shows in table "All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers as of April 2018"
But

1) I see no cases in 2017 and 2018 for EB3. How is it possible, this is 2018 April and EB3-ROW is current all the time.
2) I see only 703 is EB2, How is it possible ? We are 2018.
3) Finally, EB1 ZERO CASES in 2018.

I guess, I am missing something very obvious.



My understanding based on the report is "Perhaps they are counting the non interview cases, just in case if they have to give Green cards in last quarter without wasting visas and which takes less effort" Also they might have generated this report to CO.

[tatikonda]

Hi Spec/Q and other Gurus,

Please share your thoughts on April 2018 Inventory Data and Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance Data.
They does not seems to match.

Regards
Tatikonda.



2018 Mar Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
119
21
09
03
29
03
162
346


EB2
04
05
03
33
119
04
148
316


EB3
91
88
41
451
52
03
298
1024


EB4
07
09
00
00
01
00
114
131


EB5
214
23
02
00
92
140
152
623


Total
435
146
55
487
293
150
874
2440

[whereismygc]

Hi Spec/Q and other Gurus,

Please share your thoughts on April 2018 Inventory Data and Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance Data.
They does not seems to match.

Regards
Tatikonda.

Monthly visa issues seem like overseas numbers rather than aos cases.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Monthly visa issues seem like overseas numbers rather than aos cases.

Sounds like a logical explanation. If I project it to the annual total, comes to 20% of Total Visa issuance.

[srimurthy]

USCIS Changes STEM OPT Employment Policy Prohibiting Out-Placed Employment and Training
From the OH Law Firm. I know its been around for some time. Was checking if this would impact the H1 filings for people doing masters here?
If yes it could mean less applications for GC in future, not that it impacts us who are already in the queue for more than 10 years.

It looks like its less promising to do masters in US, and better look at Canada and other countries!

[jackbrown_890]

1340
I am assuming we have not seen the impact of the Interview requirements on the Spillover yet. But correct me if I am wrong, shouldn't we start seeing the impact in a month or two? Just for example, I am attaching the Trackitt Data of EB1 filing. You can see from the total number that EB1 applications spiked in May 17 and then dropped all of a sudden. If you go in to details of those number, I see a dramatic drop in EB1C (mostly Indians) applications. My guess is they have started processing these March to May cases now. One they are done processing these cases, we should see big spillover from EB1 to EB2 (Probably end of this year or early next year). I hope they will notice the drop in EB1C applications and start using using SO on EB2I from Oct. 18. This can move the date in the late 2009 by the end of 2018.

[AceMan]

Good evening people, my first post here. Have been studying this site for a little while and this place is a huge den of wealth with respect to predictions.

[redsox2009]

USCIS released Q1 Data Set: Form I-485 Application for Adjustment of Status. I know they are bit late in releasing the data. But it gave the picture what's happening at service centers and Field offices.

In Q1 Field offices have 27830 Pending, 5027 Approved and 168 denied.

At service centers, 114,734 pending, 25396 Approved and 1826 denied.

Based on this stats, we can assume, in Q4 service centers will fulfill most of the cases which doesn't require interviews.

Here is the url.
https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-studies/immigration-forms-data/data-set-form-i-485-application-adjustment-status

[rock581]

Based on this stats, we can assume, in Q4 service centers will fulfill most of the cases which doesn't require interviews.



Redsox2009 - Please elaborate on what this means. Did you mean that EB2I will move forward or just that ROW cases which don't require interviews will be approved?

[idliman]

Redsox2009 - Please elaborate on what this means. Did you mean that EB2I will move forward or just that ROW cases which don't require interviews will be approved? The pending inventory has only about 6000 in EB2 and another 6000 in EB3 for ROW. They don't have enough ROW inventory to approve people without interviews.

[march1612]

The pending inventory has only about 6000 in EB2 and another 6000 in EB3 for ROW. They don't have enough ROW inventory to approve people without interviews.

Will EB3 to EB2 porting applications qualify for interview ? and how would be the impact?

[redsox2009]

Redsox2009 - Please elaborate on what this means. Did you mean that EB2I will move forward or just that ROW cases which don't require interviews will be approved?

It all depends how the Field offices process the applications and how CO handles the demand vs. supply. But there is a possibility there could be a movement in last qtr, but how great and how big all depends in the hands on CO.

Also some Field offices processed less than 10% of the applications and few processed above 25%. Question is if all field offices starts processing applications above 25% then it is less likely there will be greater movement.

But based on last inventory report, it is obvious that USCIS and CO are looking at non-interview data.

[Spectator]

I've had a cursory look at some of the data published today (thanks redsox2009 for the heads up - I'd given up looking).

From the various sources of information, we can estimate EB visa usage for Q1 FY2018:

All Forms Report (USCIS) (AOS) - 30,472
CP Approvals Reports (DOS) (CP) - 8,442

Total -------------------------- 38,914 (27.8% of annual allocation)


The Field Office Report raises more questions than it answers for me.

For Pending EB cases, the Field Office report shows:

Service Center - 114,734
Field Office ---- 27,830
Total ---------- 142,564

Service Center --- 80.5%
Field Office ----- 19.5%

That report is analogous to the January 2018 Inventory Report which purports to show:

All Employment-Based I-485 Inventory pending at the Service Centers and Field Offices as of January 2018

This report shows a figure of 103,675 Pending EB cases. The similar Field Office report has a figure 38,889 higher, or 37.5% higher.

There might be slight timing issue, but the difference is huge.

I don't think we'll get a true sense of the split between Service Center and Field Office until the Field Office Q2 report is released in another 3 months.

[redsox2009]

I looked at I-485 applications processed in Q4 of 2017.

At field offices, 983 approved, 139 denied and 9565 pending, however Service centers processed 22341 approvals, 1863 denials and 139K pending.

From 2017 Q4 to 2018 Q1, field office processing rates increased. I looked at trackitt data in Q2 &Q3 2018, majority of the cases that were approved were pre-interview cases.

In trackitt data approvals in Q2 and Q3 with pre-March 2017 priority date are 657.
Out of 657, 195 are EB1, 269 are EB2 and 189 are for EB3.
Q2 and Q3 with post-March Priority date are 110.
Out of 110, 51 are for EB1, 40 are for EB2 and 19 for EB3.

This data shows there could be a good movement in Q4.

[EB2-03252009]

When you say good movement in Q4 , is it for EB2I or EB3I?


I looked at I-485 applications processed in Q4 of 2017.

At field offices, 983 approved, 139 denied and 9565 pending, however Service centers processed 22341 approvals, 1863 denials and 139K pending.

From 2017 Q4 to 2018 Q1, field office processing rates increased. I looked at trackitt data in Q2 &Q3 2018, majority of the cases that were approved were pre-interview cases.

In trackitt data approvals in Q2 and Q3 with pre-March 2017 priority date are 657.
Out of 657, 195 are EB1, 269 are EB2 and 189 are for EB3.
Q2 and Q3 with post-March Priority date are 110.
Out of 110, 51 are for EB1, 40 are for EB2 and 19 for EB3.

This data shows there could be a good movement in Q4.

[redsox2009]

When you say good movement in Q4 , is it for EB2I or EB3I?

Already EB3I are having Pinacoladas in Bahamas. Now its EB2I turn.

[EB2-03252009]

but if you compare trackitt approvals of 2017 and 2018, they are similar, I dont see EB2-ROW is giving any SOs, so where do you expect the SOs from and how many?

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2703-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2018-vs-FY2017-vs-FY2016-vs-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013


Already EB3I are having Pinacoladas in Bahamas. Now its EB2I turn.

[march1612]

How much would be SO this time and how far the EB2 India would be moved if CO decides to apply those SO's to EB2 -India

[redsox2009]

How much would be SO this time and how far the EB2 India would be moved if CO decides to apply those SO's to EB2 -India

My guess is between Sep 2009 to Dec 2009.

[march1612]

Thanks, This means EB2-I would be receiving close to 20K as SO?

[Blue_fairy]

Me: EB3, PD 9th Sept 2009
Husband: EB2, PD 7th Oct 2009

We sort of have a stake in both EB2 and EB3. We also have EAD (husband is the primary) since 2012. Any chance of us getting GC this year in either of the EB category??

[trackitgc]

Any idea when EB2-I - Dec 28 2010 is going to be current

[EB3Iwaiting]

Wow! This forum used to be a place where people had meaningful conversations about GC issuance, movement and wastage. Now, it is becoming more and more like trackitt looking at the last few posts. Even the username of the last post has trackit in it.

Maybe it is time to create a thread called "When will I be current?" and dump all these questions in there.

[qesehmk]

It is still related to predictions isn't it? So lets keep it. If somebody can and would like to answer - they should.


Wow! This forum used to be a place where people had meaningful conversations about GC issuance, movement and wastage. Now, it is becoming more and more like trackitt looking at the last few posts. Even the username of the last post has trackit in it.

Maybe it is time to create a thread called "When will I be current?" and dump all these questions in there.

[redsox2009]

Thanks, This means EB2-I would be receiving close to 20K as SO?

Eb2I could be receiving 5K+. so key is how much is the "+". How much will it trickle down from EB3 to EB1 and to EB2.

[Spectator]

Some statistics from Trackitt approvals regarding the need for an interview.

Interview Waiver = I-485 RD < March 07, 2017
Interview Needed = I-485 RD >= March 07, 2017

EB2-ROW ------------- Q1 ----- Q2 ------Q3*
Interview Waiver -- 75.7% -- 56.6% -- 21.7%
Interview Needed -- 24.3% -- 43.4% -- 78.3%

* To Date


EB3-ROW ------------- Q1 ----- Q2 ------Q3*
Interview Waiver -- 63.2% -- 25.6% -- 13.6%
Interview Needed -- 36.8% -- 74.4% -- 86.4%

* To Date

In general, most cases being processed by USCIS for ROW now require an interview and the times have started to stabilize.

EB3-India only passed the July 2007 PD in the April VB. Unless USCIS decide to give those new applications preferential treatment, they seem unlikely to be approved within FY2018, based on the time it currently takes cases needing an interview.

[march1612]

How long does it take for new applications to receive an interview from application received date?

[trackitgc]

It is still related to predictions isn't it? So lets keep it. If somebody can and would like to answer - they should.

Thanks Q. It is not about trackit or anything just the frustration on waiting & waiting & waiting ....

[qesehmk]

Thanks Q. It is not about trackit or anything just the frustration on waiting & waiting & waiting ....

I totally get it. Hence it is important to stick together and help each other with what we know. Everybody has gone through the same thing ...

[suninphx]

Some statistics from Trackitt approvals regarding the need for an interview.

Interview Waiver = I-485 RD < March 07, 2017
Interview Needed = I-485 RD >= March 07, 2017

EB2-ROW ------------- Q1 ----- Q2 ------Q3*
Interview Waiver -- 75.7% -- 56.6% -- 21.7%
Interview Needed -- 24.3% -- 43.4% -- 78.3%

* To Date


EB3-ROW ------------- Q1 ----- Q2 ------Q3*
Interview Waiver -- 63.2% -- 25.6% -- 13.6%
Interview Needed -- 36.8% -- 74.4% -- 86.4%

* To Date

In general, most cases being processed by USCIS for ROW now require an interview and the times have started to stabilize.

EB3-India only passed the July 2007 PD in the April VB. Unless USCIS decide to give those new applications preferential treatment, they seem unlikely to be approved within FY2018, based on the time it currently takes cases needing an interview.

Spec,

This is great insight. Thank you.

In the meantime number of RFEs reported on trackitt for EB2I 2009 PDs is steadily increasing. I have been around enough to not read too much into it. But certainly gives a feel good factor :)

[EB3Iwaiting]

This is the question that has been on my mind: When is the visa reserved for the applicant? When they are called for the interview or when they are finally issued to the applicant? If it is the latter and as Spec clearly pointed out, EB3I folks needing interviews will not be able to get the GC this FY. So, what happens to those GCs?

[srimurthy]

June Visa Bulletin is out
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-june-2018.html

and literally no movement for EB2I and EB3I

[Spectator]

June Visa Bulletin is out
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-june-2018.html

and literally no movement for EB2I and EB3I

Not literally true.

EB2-I moved from 22DEC08 to 26DEC08.

A movement less than to 01JAN09 is unusual and suggests there is too much demand to move it normally.

[srimurthy]

Not literally true.

EB2-I moved from 22DEC08 to 26DEC08.

A movement less than to 01JAN09 is unusual and suggests there is too much demand to move it normally.
usually we see the movements in multiples of weeks, so the 4 days movement is strange, is it not? I am not sure we saw this before.

[Spectator]

usually we see the movements in multiples of weeks, so the 4 days movement is strange, is it not? I am not sure we saw this before.

We also saw it with EB3-I when they moved through the March 2005 period of very high caseload.

March 2017 VB -- 22-Mar-05
April 2017 VB -- 24-Mar-05
May 2017 VB ---- 25-Mar-05

[Jagan01]

Not literally true.

EB2-I moved from 22DEC08 to 26DEC08.

A movement less than to 01JAN09 is unusual and suggests there is too much demand to move it normally.

I just dont understand where is the demand coming from? Everybidy who had to port have for surr porter in the last 10 years.

I am getting a feeling that CO is just screwing with EB2I because of thr lawsuit from Greg siskind. That lawsuit from Greg and whoever supported him was insane.

[tatikonda]

Yes Jagan, you stole my words. I was thinking about this for last couple of months.
Where is demand coming from.




I just dont understand where is the demand coming from? Everybidy who had to port have for surr porter in the last 10 years.

I am getting a feeling that CO is just screwing with EB2I because of thr lawsuit from Greg siskind. That lawsuit from Greg and whoever supported him was insane.

[march1612]

The only EB2-India demand we have currently is pending applications applied during 2012 period. Anything other than pending inventory is accounted for interviews so I am really surprised about 4 days EB2-India movement.

Is this a conservative movement before huge movement in Q4?

Do we still have porting from EB3 I to EB2 I?

[srimurthy]

The only EB2-India demand we have currently is pending applications applied during 2012 period. Anything other than pending inventory is accounted for interviews so I am really surprised about 4 days EB2-India movement.

Is this a conservative movement before huge movement in Q4?

Do we still have porting from EB3 I to EB2 I?

does it mean scope for more wastage

[march1612]

Either wastage or Big EB2-I movement.

[Spectator]

Since June is the last month of Q3, it's possible that there are constraints against the 27% per quarter law.

Regardless, whichever USCIS Inventory you care to believe (August 2017 is the last one that really made sense), December 2008 had significantly more cases than earlier months in 2008.

Possibly EB2-I cases with December PD could have interfiled when Filing Dates were last allowed in December 2016, but they could not have been approved until now.

In addition, until a few months ago, December 2008 PDs Final Action Date hadn't been current since October 2014.

[EB2-03252009]

True... I think there are atleast 700-1000 of Eb2I quota still left and I guess will be ready to use starting July 1st(last quarter) which will take date to Feb 1st 2009. Im still not sure about SO coming to EB2I.


Since June is the last month of Q3, it's possible that there are constraints against the 27% per quarter law.

Regardless, whichever USCIS Inventory you care to believe (August 2017 is the last one that really made sense), December 2008 had significantly more cases than earlier months in 2008.

Possibly EB2-I cases with December PD could have interfiled when Filing Dates were last allowed in December 2016, but they could not have been approved until now.

In addition, until a few months ago, December 2008 PDs Final Action Date hadn't been current since October 2014.

[march1612]

Since June is the last month of Q3, it's possible that there are constraints against the 27% per quarter law.

Regardless, whichever USCIS Inventory you care to believe (August 2017 is the last one that really made sense), December 2008 had significantly more cases than earlier months in 2008.

Possibly EB2-I cases with December PD could have interfiled when Filing Dates were last allowed in December 2016, but they could not have been approved until now.

In addition, until a few months ago, December 2008 PDs Final Action Date hadn't been current since October 2014.

Wouldn't the interfiled applications account for an interview? If Yes, they are excluded out of demand unless interview is complete in last few months of FY 2018.

It only indicates wastage of visa's

[skpanda]

I just dont understand where is the demand coming from? Everybidy who had to port have for surr porter in the last 10 years.

I am getting a feeling that CO is just screwing with EB2I because of thr lawsuit from Greg siskind. That lawsuit from Greg and whoever supported him was insane.


Jagan,
With due respect, I disagree with you. I was one of the plaintiffs of the Lawsuit. Hindsight vision 20/20. I still feel we had a strong case. Unfortunately it did not go in our favor.

I strongly believe in doing something is better than doing nothing at all.

I would be happy to have a constructive discussion with you offline if you wish to know specifics of the lawsuit.

Peace!

[Spectator]

Wouldn't the interfiled applications account for an interview? If Yes, they are excluded out of demand unless interview is complete in last few months of FY 2018.

It only indicates wastage of visa's

Interfiling just means informing USCIS that you wish to use a different I-140 category as the basis for adjudication of the already existing I-485 application.

It doesn't alter the date the existing I-485 was filed.

As far as I am aware, it is the receipt date of the I-485 that determines whether an interview is mandatory.

For almost all EB3 to EB2 India porting cases, the I-485 will have been filed before the cut off date of March 7, 2017.

[march1612]

Interfiling just means informing USCIS that you wish to use a different I-140 category as the basis for adjudication of the already existing I-485 application.

It doesn't alter the date the existing I-485 was filed.

As far as I am aware, it is the receipt date of the I-485 that determines whether an interview is mandatory.

For almost all EB3 to EB2 India porting cases, the I-485 will have been filed before the cut off date of March 7, 2017.

Thank you, These application would be showing up in April 2018 inventory to predict the movement?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Interfiling just means informing USCIS that you wish to use a different I-140 category as the basis for adjudication of the already existing I-485 application.

It doesn't alter the date the existing I-485 was filed.

As far as I am aware, it is the receipt date of the I-485 that determines whether an interview is mandatory.

For almost all EB3 to EB2 India porting cases, the I-485 will have been filed before the cut off date of March 7, 2017.

Spec, isn't it safe to say that most if not all EB2I cases being processed are currently ported cases? Original EB2Is must have gotten GCs. If that is the case, folks with EB3I PDs after July 2007 but have ported to EB2I have not filed AOS in EB3I at all. I am sure there are many such cases even after March 7, 2017. Porting is literally happening every day. It may have slowed down only recently with the rapid EB3I movement, like someone in late 2008 EB3I may now choose to wait it out instead of porting but others like him may have ported AFTER March 7, 2017 and are filing AOS for the first time.

[march1612]

Pretty much all application that have been applied before March 2017 would require redoing Medicals.

If EB2-I are moved into 2009 in Q4, will there be sufficient time to respond to those RFE's on time by all pending applications?.

I am sensing moving dates in Q4 will lead to wastage of Visa numbers.

[Jagan01]

Pretty much all application that have been applied before March 2017 would require redoing Medicals.

If EB2-I are moved into 2009 in Q4, will there be sufficient time to respond to those RFE's on time by all pending applications?.

I am sensing moving dates in Q4 will lead to wastage of Visa numbers.
1. Many people until Mar 2009 have either gotten RFE or are receiving them as we speak.
2. All these people will have a chance to be approved

There are at least 4000 people in the first 3 months of 2009 and hence they might be able to consume a good SO. Now if the SO is going to be more than 4000 then you might be correct.

[rock581]

The bigger question is what happens to the EB3ROW spillover. I think it is fair to assume the EB3I inventory build up is not sufficient.


1. Many people until Mar 2009 have either gotten RFE or are receiving them as we speak.
2. All these people will have a chance to be approved

There are at least 4000 people in the first 3 months of 2009 and hence they might be able to consume a good SO. Now if the SO is going to be more than 4000 then you might be correct.

[tatikonda]

Gurus,

What will be the effect of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) termination of Honduras, Nepalis, etc will have on EB Category.
Some of them may be trying to convert to EB Category ? Any thoughts on this.



The bigger question is what happens to the EB3ROW spillover. I think it is fair to assume the EB3I inventory build up is not sufficient.

[LASHAB]

Even if there is more than 4k SO there is enough inventory in EB2I to not waste any visas.

[texas_]

Gurus,

What will be the effect of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) termination of Honduras, Nepalis, etc will have on EB Category.
Some of them may be trying to convert to EB Category ? Any thoughts on this.

There might be some in-flow especially into EB3 category but it wouldn't be noticeable. I think I have seen some farm companies filings for lot of perms for folks from Haiti a while back. I think it's Perdue farms some something like that.

[AceMan]

Third quarter is over, the big movement potential has to happen for the July bulletin

[AceMan]

Pretty much all application that have been applied before March 2017 would require redoing Medicals.

If EB2-I are moved into 2009 in Q4, will there be sufficient time to respond to those RFE's on time by all pending applications?.

I am sensing moving dates in Q4 will lead to wastage of Visa numbers.

Technically the visa numbers won't get wasted. The left over numbers in Employment category, if any will get allocated to family based category for FY 2019.

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

It appears that there are about approx 300,000 folks under Temporary Protected Status (TPS).
Even if 0.5% of them try to get into EB3 Category, it would effect EB3 noticeably and therefore EB2.
Any thoughts.

https://immigrationforum.org/blog/fact-sheet-temporary-protected-status/



There might be some in-flow especially into EB3 category but it wouldn't be noticeable. I think I have seen some farm companies filings for lot of perms for folks from Haiti a while back. I think it's Perdue farms some something like that.

[march1612]

Why there has been no movement for EB2-I in June 2018 VB when there were enough spill overs? Why only last quarter of FY?

[Raj0687]

https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/Updates/20180515-AdjustmentInterview.pdf

Does this mean USCIS want to exempt the interview for some of the post 3/2017 EB/FB applicants and process them quick. Will it not impact the SO, if there is any?

[Spectator]

https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/Updates/20180515-AdjustmentInterview.pdf

Does this mean USCIS want to exempt the interview for some of the post 3/2017 EB/FB applicants and process them quick. Will it not impact the SO, if there is any?
It just brings the Policy Manual into line with the new interview waiver guidelines.

In fact, it reiterates that EB cases are no longer eligibe for a waiver.


Updates the list of types of adjustment of status cases in which USCIS might waive the interview by removing employment-based and fiancé(e)-based adjustment cases from the list.

[EB2-03252009]

Spec,

do u think there will be SO from EB2M and EB2P this yr and flow into EB2I?

[AceMan]

Spec,

do u think there will be SO from EB2M and EB2P this yr and flow into EB2I?

Last FY year both Mexico and Philippines used only half of their allotted quota. Still EB2 I ended up with only 2879 (75 more than the mandated 2804). South Korea got the bulk. This year it is already 9 months and so far the EB2 I movement is very sluggish. July bulletin is the last big hope for EB2 I this FY.

[Spectator]

Spec,

do u think there will be SO from EB2M and EB2P this yr and flow into EB2I?

That's difficult to answer since there is no reliable information on EB2 Mexico and Philippine approvals.

The numbers on Trackitt are too low to be reliable.

It's possible that EB2-ROW could use any spare numbers, as last FY.

Last year (FY2017), EB2-ROW was retrogressed for the final 2 months of the FY. Trackitt approvals were 592.

In FY2018, EB2-ROW still potentially has the full 12 months of approvals. At the current monthly approval rate on Trackitt, EB2-ROW is capable of reaching the same number of approvals as in FY2017. Currently there are 414, with 4.5 months to go. EB2-ROW need only average 40 approvals per month for the rest of the FY to reach last year's total. Excluding October and May, to date EB2-ROW are currently averaging 50 per month.

Whether Trackitt approvals this year equate to the same number of actual approvals as last year is different question.

[EB2-03252009]

Thanks Specs... looks like a close one this year for SOs

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Spec, isn't it safe to say that most if not all EB2I cases being processed are currently ported cases? Original EB2Is must have gotten GCs. If that is the case, folks with EB3I PDs after July 2007 but have ported to EB2I have not filed AOS in EB3I at all. I am sure there are many such cases even after March 7, 2017. Porting is literally happening every day. It may have slowed down only recently with the rapid EB3I movement, like someone in late 2008 EB3I may now choose to wait it out instead of porting but others like him may have ported AFTER March 7, 2017 and are filing AOS for the first time.

Any one with an EB2I Perm with a PD of Dec 2008 or earlier has already filed AOS in EB2, whether porter or not. The recent Fast movement in EB3I PD does not change that. So the question of anyone 'waiting it out' does not arise. 'Porting' is a term used to change a category AFTER filing for AOS, not before.

[oraclept]

Co expects rapid advances on EB2 and EB3 India and china How much rapid advance can we expect ?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Cyrus tweeted abour latest CO AILA update:

https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/status/997561421864030209

USCIS is not using EB numbers due to delays under the new mandatory interview policy for adjustment applicants. Charlie Oppenheim at DOS said at FBA Immigration conference in Memphis today to expect rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers. Will know more by end of May.

[rock581]

Great news but we need CO to define rapid movement :) I will have my fingers and toes crossed till we hear more.



Cyrus tweeted abour latest CO AILA update:

https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/status/997561421864030209

USCIS is not using EB numbers due to delays under the new mandatory interview policy for adjustment applicants. Charlie Oppenheim at DOS said at FBA Immigration conference in Memphis today to expect rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers. Will know more by end of May.

[texas_]

Cyrus tweeted abour latest CO AILA update:

https://twitter.com/cyrusmehta/status/997561421864030209

USCIS is not using EB numbers due to delays under the new mandatory interview policy for adjustment applicants. Charlie Oppenheim at DOS said at FBA Immigration conference in Memphis today to expect rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers. Will know more by end of May.

How much overall EB numbers have been used thus far for this FY?

It appears there might be lot of unused EB spilling into backlogged categories mostly towards clearing out long held backlog that do not require interviews

[Spectator]

Charlie's PowerPoint presentation (https://eventmobi.com/api/events/24699/documents/download/a6605654-485a-4c9f-b178-c2117da09a78.pdf/as/Charlie%20Chat%20PPT.pdf)

[idliman]

Charlie's PowerPoint presentation (https://eventmobi.com/api/events/24699/documents/download/a6605654-485a-4c9f-b178-c2117da09a78.pdf/as/Charlie%20Chat%20PPT.pdf)
Spec: Thanks. All I can read is that compared to last year, they have issued 6668 less EB2 GCs. For EB3 they have issued 1843 more GCs compared to last year. The net difference of 4825 GCs will be added to EB2.

That amounts to about 4 months movement for EB2I. So are we looking at say July/August 2009 for EB2I by the end of this fiscal year?

Although I want to take it to end of 2009, I just want to work with the numbers provided to understand it better.

[rock581]

Spec - Waiting to hear your thoughts on the presentation.





Charlie's PowerPoint presentation (https://eventmobi.com/api/events/24699/documents/download/a6605654-485a-4c9f-b178-c2117da09a78.pdf/as/Charlie%20Chat%20PPT.pdf)

[imdeng]

One important thing I see in the powerpoint is that CO is considering that any unused EB3 numbers "fall down" to EB1. This is different than Spec's interpretation of the relevant law. This would allows for CO to not waste any visas in case there isn't enough EB3 inventory to use all the spillover there.

Now that CO considers the EB spillover process to be a closed loop cycle, he has a pathway to use EB2I inventory that does not need interview - in case the interview process delays approvals for recent EB-ROW filings.


Charlie's PowerPoint presentation (https://eventmobi.com/api/events/24699/documents/download/a6605654-485a-4c9f-b178-c2117da09a78.pdf/as/Charlie%20Chat%20PPT.pdf)

[suninphx]

Charlie's PowerPoint presentation (https://eventmobi.com/api/events/24699/documents/download/a6605654-485a-4c9f-b178-c2117da09a78.pdf/as/Charlie%20Chat%20PPT.pdf)

Thanks Spec !

This is a welcome news. EB2I should be happy with whatever movement they get this year. I believe this is going to be one time bonanza. Next year onwards the interview process will provide steady demand.

However, if the extra visas really flow through a closed loop as shown in the diagram then it opens up lot of interesting possibilities. Would be interesting to see how this plays out over last quarter of FY 2018.

[suninphx]

Spec: Thanks. All I can read is that compared to last year, they have issued 6668 less EB2 GCs. For EB3 they have issued 1843 more GCs compared to last year. The net difference of 4825 GCs will be added to EB2.

That amounts to about 4 months movement for EB2I. So are we looking at say July/August 2009 for EB2I by the end of this fiscal year?

Although I want to take it to end of 2009, I just want to work with the numbers provided to understand it better.

These are numbers for first 6 months of FY2018(Oct-Mar). So actual available numbers could be different ( and hopefully more).

[godhelp]

Dear Friends/Gurus, I am new to this forum. As you guys have much more experience, any best guess
when EB3 India: Priority Date September 2009 might get current ? Kindly provide your best
opinion/guess. Thanks in advance..

[iatiam]

These are numbers for first 6 months of FY2018(Oct-Mar). So actual available numbers could be different ( and hopefully more).
While this is good news, I am not sure how this is going to help EB3 India. It is too little, too late for EB3 India. I have a feeling that a whole lot of visas will be wasted this year.

Iatiam

[suninphx]

While this is good news, I am not sure how this is going to help EB3 India. It is too little, too late for EB3 India. I have a feeling that a whole lot of visas will be wasted this year.

Iatiam

Yes.. you could be right in terms of EB3I not getting much help other than able to file the 485 this FY.

Wastage of visa might happen.. if extra visas can't flow back to EB1 and fall down. The diagram in the presentation seem to suggest that the extra visas may flow through closed loop.... but who knows.

[Spectator]

It's excellent news that CO believes unused EB3 visas remain available for use by EB1.

I've tried to distill some of the information into a more digestible table form.

First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.

All Visa Issuances
Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%

The expected usage would be 54% of the annual allocation.
DOS Figures above match previously published data.

Secondly the Field Office approvals. There's no info for EB4 or EB5. Approvals in EB5 by USCIS are negligible anyway.

USCIS AOS Approvals
Oct-Mar -- Service -- Field --- Total -- % Field
EB1 ------- 19,344 -- 6,863 -- 26,207 ---- 26.2%
EB2 ------- 11,595 -- 6,165 -- 17,760 ---- 34.7%
EB3 -------- 7,649 -- 5,200 -- 12,849 ---- 40.5%
EB4 --------------------------- 4,220
EB5 ----------------------------- 942

Total ------------------------ 61,978

[rock581]

It's excellent news that CO believes unused EB3 visas remain available for use by EB1.



I don't think a lot of folks here would share your optimism of EB3 visas flow to EB1. They should be used by EB3.



I've tried to distill some of the information into a more digestible table form.

First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 21,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%

The expected usage would be 54% of the annual allocation.
DOS Figures above match previously published data.

Secondly the Field Office approvals. There's no info for EB4 or EB5. Approvals in EB5 by USCIS are negligible anyway.

Oct-Mar -- Service -- Field --- Total -- % Field
EB1 ------- 19,344 -- 6,863 -- 26,207 ---- 26.2%
EB2 ------- 11,595 -- 6,165 -- 17,760 ---- 34.7%
EB3 -------- 7,649 -- 5,200 -- 12,849 ---- 40.5%
EB4 --------------------------- 4,220
EB5 ----------------------------- 942

Total ------------------------ 61,978


The thing I believe CO is saying is the field offices have only approved 5K visas in Q2 per category. I will assume that 90%+ GC's issued in Q2 would have gone to field offices. Now if they go by the same rate or improve a bit there will be plenty of unused visas.

[suninphx]

It's excellent news that CO believes unused EB3 visas remain available for use by EB1.

I've tried to distill some of the information into a more digestible table form.

First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 21,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%

The expected usage would be 54% of the annual allocation.
DOS Figures above match previously published data.

Secondly the Field Office approvals. There's no info for EB4 or EB5. Approvals in EB5 by USCIS are negligible anyway.

Oct-Mar -- Service -- Field --- Total -- % Field
EB1 ------- 19,344 -- 6,863 -- 26,207 ---- 26.2%
EB2 ------- 11,595 -- 6,165 -- 17,760 ---- 34.7%
EB3 -------- 7,649 -- 5,200 -- 12,849 ---- 40.5%
EB4 --------------------------- 4,220
EB5 ----------------------------- 942

Total ------------------------ 61,978

If 54% is already used in first 6 months then why would there be rapid movement? I think in context of June 18 bulletin when dates moved just 4 days .., a months movement would feel like rapid movement 😄

[Spectator]

I don't think a lot of folks here would share your optimism of EB3 visas flow to EB1. They should be used by EB3.

I think you misunderstand me.

Clearly the best use is for EB3 to use the visas in their own category. I took that as read.

However, the alternative might have been that they were lost to EB entirely and used for the FY2019 FB calculation.

No amount of spare EB visas can raise the FB calculation above 226,000 due to the numbers of Immediate Relative approvals.

There could be 140,000 spare EB visas and it would still not allow any extra approvals for FB. The calculation would still result in defaulting to the lowest possible number of 226,000.

[march1612]

Spec, based on the numbers, is it safe to assume EB2-India would move to May-2010?

[Spectator]

If 54% is already used in first 6 months then why would there be rapid movement? I think in context of June 18 bulletin when dates moved just 4 days .., a months movement would feel like rapid movement ��

From the figures, it's clear that in the first 2 quarters, USCIS had fairly large numbers of cases that were received prior to the cut off date for needing an interview.

For instance, on Trackitt, the % of older NIW case approvals is much higher than normal.

For the second half of the FY, as the number of old cases dwindle, I would guess the % needing a Field Office interview is going to rise extremely quickly.

I published some Trackitt stats in a previous post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=59349&viewfull=1#post59349) which shows how this appears to be the case.

I can't see the Field Offices processing potentially double or triple the number they did in the first half of the FY.

I believe that is the crux of CO's worry.

[iatiam]

From the figures, it's clear that in the first 2 quarters, USCIS had fairly large numbers of cases that were received prior to the cut off date for needing an interview.

For instance, on Trackitt, the % of older NIW case approvals is much higher than normal.

For the second half of the FY, as the number of old cases dwindle, I would guess the % needing a Field Office interview is going to rise extremely quickly.

I published some Trackitt stats in a previous post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=59349&viewfull=1#post59349) which shows how this appears to be the case.

I can't see the Field Offices processing potentially double or triple the number they did in the first half of the FY.

I believe that is the crux of CO's worry.

So is it safe to say up to 140000 - 62000 = 78000 visas might be available maximum as spillover minus whatever number that has completed the visa interview.

Iatiam

[suninphx]

From the figures, it's clear that in the first 2 quarters, USCIS had fairly large numbers of cases that were received prior to the cut off date for needing an interview.

For instance, on Trackitt, the % of older NIW case approvals is much higher than normal.

For the second half of the FY, as the number of old cases dwindle, I would guess the % needing a Field Office interview is going to rise extremely quickly.

I published some Trackitt stats in a previous post (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=59349&viewfull=1#post59349) which shows how this appears to be the case.

I can't see the Field Offices processing potentially double or triple the number they did in the first half of the FY.

I believe that is the crux of CO's worry.

Yeah - I am also follwing trackitt threads and processing times are too long now. Just to get an interview date one needs to wait for months and wait few more months for approval after interview.

Spec - thanks for quatifying the presentation. Provides baseline to what CO is saying.

[Spectator]

So is it safe to say up to 140000 - 62000 = 78000 visas might be available maximum as spillover minus whatever number that has completed the visa interview.

Iatiam

It would be the other way round.

Around 78k approvals were already made in Q1+Q2 (62k AOS + 16k CP).

That leaves 62k left for Q3 + Q4.

[vedu]

According to the twit, "Rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers". But rapid advances in China can happen only if India EB2/EB3 catches up with China EB2/EB3....right?

[rock581]

It would be the other way round.

Around 78k approvals were already made in Q1+Q2 (62k AOS + 16k CP).

That leaves 62k left for Q3 + Q4.

Playing devils advocate, we can count only EB2 and EB3 remaining visas ~42K. (Its fair to assume EB1 and EB5 will be fully utilized even with the slow processing.)

CO seems to have utilized 6K with the recent EB3I movement, lets also assume,optimistically, field offices will process 20K of EB2 and EB3 row applications for the rest of the year. So, there will be at least 16K available GCs. That will take care of EB2I till May 1 2010 and more. There is no way new applications can be approved before end of Sep.

Hope CO sees field offices processing more pessimistically and moves dates even more.

Lets also not forget the other part of the equation, the companies will go into overdrive trying to stop this movement!

[Spectator]

According to the twit, "Rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers". But rapid advances in China can happen only if India EB2/EB3 catches up with China EB2/EB3....right?

Not necessarily.

If the slowdown in Chinese approvals due to Field Office processing is threatening EB2-C and EB3-C each reaching 2,803 visas for the FY, then they could have rapid advancement.

It wouldn't help AOS cases (because new applications wouldn't get approved by USCIS in time), but it would allow DOS to process CP applications which do not suffer the same delays.

[vedu]

Not necessarily.

If the slowdown in Chinese approvals due to Field Office processing is threatening EB2-C and EB3-C each reaching 2,803 visas for the FY, then they could have rapid advancement.

It wouldn't help AOS cases (because new applications wouldn't get approved by USCIS in time), but it would allow DOS to process CP applications which do not suffer the same delays.

That makes sense! Can't wait to see what the July Visa bulletin has in store for us! Based on the recent RFEs, I am thinking EB2I will move to March 31st, 2009. If they can cover at least upto July, 2009 by the end of year, then it will be great. After that, there is not heavy demand and we can have standard two weeks movement every month next year. All bets are off at this time!

[skpanda]

EB2I:

Any guestimate on what could be the Final Action and Filing Dates would be?

I am seeing that there could be 14K SOFAD for EB2I? This should take us to late 2009 or early 2010 with about 5K inventory pending.

[godhelp]

EB2I:

Any guestimate on what could be the Final Action and Filing Dates would be?

I am seeing that there could be 14K SOFAD for EB2I? This should take us to late 2009 or early 2010 with about 5K inventory pending.

hello friends/experts, any clue when eb3 india priority september 2009 might get current..?

[Spectator]

Playing devils advocate, we can count only EB2 and EB3 remaining visas ~42K. (Its fair to assume EB1 and EB5 will be fully utilized even with the slow processing.)

CO seems to have utilized 6K with the recent EB3I movement, lets also assume,optimistically, field offices will process 20K of EB2 and EB3 row applications for the rest of the year. So, there will be at least 16K available GCs. That will take care of EB2I till May 1 2010 and more. There is no way new applications can be approved before end of Sep.

Hope CO sees field offices processing more pessimistically and moves dates even more.

Lets also not forget the other part of the equation, the companies will go into overdrive trying to stop this movement!

You're not accounting for any CP approvals by DOS in your calculation of available visas in Q3&Q4.

There were 7.5k CP approvals in EB2&EB3 in the first half of the year. If that was repeated for Q3&Q4, then your 16k figure would further reduce to 8.5k.

[iatiam]

You're not accounting for any CP approvals by DOS in your calculation of available visas in Q3&Q4.

There were 7.5k CP approvals in EB2&EB3 in the first half of the year. If that was repeated for Q3&Q4, then your 16k figure would further reduce to 8.5k.

That's a very good point.

Optimistic Scenario:

So assuming 8.5K spillover in the last three months and based on the latest 485 inventory, the dates should move to around January 2010. I am of course assuming that the EB3I inventory is depleted and that EB1I is not taking away any thing. The number also includes 700 visas to be allocated in the last quarter of 2018.

Realistic Scenario:
If we subtract the EB1I pending inventory number of 3900 and assumes no allocation of last Q numbers, the SO reduces to 8500-3900 = 4600 and dates should still move to June 2009.


Let me know if any thing is missing in this

Iatiam

[Jonty Rhodes]

Provided that a decent spillover is available this year and if the dates move towards end of 2009 or beginning of 2010, and provided from thereon we start moving 2 weeks every month for EB2I, wouldn't CO have to advance the EB2I dates rapidly in the last quarter of next fiscal year to generate demand?

Just trying to make a logical guess here. My PD is in May, 2011 for EB2I and I am thinking that hopefully I may be able to get current by end of next fiscal year.

Is that too much optimism or am I right in guessing that?

[Prabhas]

Provided that a decent spillover is available this year and if the dates move towards end of 2009 or beginning of 2010, and provided from thereon we start moving 2 weeks every month for EB2I, wouldn't CO have to advance the EB2I dates rapidly in the last quarter of next fiscal year to generate demand?

Just trying to make a logical guess here. My PD is in May, 2011 for EB2I and I am thinking that hopefully I may be able to get current by end of next fiscal year.

Is that too much optimism or am I right in guessing that?

Wow Jonty!!

Long time.. good to see you after such a long time. One of the old timers.. didnt realize you are still around. Thought you got greened long time ago! Bleh...😉

Im with July-2010 Eb2 date and I believe and wish your opinion comes true! 😊

Also from SpecÂ’s comments on 6000 EB2 - visas being used by field offices, isnÂ’t it safe to assume that CO used 15% of the allowed field office quotas ahead of time to avoid any wastage from services centers and now he will utilize the leftovers towards Pending inventory?

V

[Prabhas]

Provided that a decent spillover is available this year and if the dates move towards end of 2009 or beginning of 2010, and provided from thereon we start moving 2 weeks every month for EB2I, wouldn't CO have to advance the EB2I dates rapidly in the last quarter of next fiscal year to generate demand?

Just trying to make a logical guess here. My PD is in May, 2011 for EB2I and I am thinking that hopefully I may be able to get current by end of next fiscal year.

Is that too much optimism or am I right in guessing that?

Wow Jonty!!

Long time.. good to see you after such a long time. One of the old timers.. didnt realize you are still around. Thought you got greened long time ago! Bleh...😉

Im with July-2010 Eb2 date and I believe and wish your opinion comes true! 😊

Also from SpecÂ’s comments on 6000 EB2 - visas being used by field offices, isnÂ’t it safe to assume that CO used 15% of the allowed field office quotas ahead of time to avoid any wastage from services centers and now he will utilize the leftovers towards Pending inventory?

V

[srimurthy]

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 21,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%


Spec - the total for EB2 is not inline on how the remaining numbers of EB1, EB3 and others were calculated.
EBS2 should it be 21 K + 3 K = around 23K instead of the 18K listed?

Was checking if based on that, the percentages change and what everyone is estimating for movement will change for EB2.

[Spectator]

Spec - the total for EB2 is not inline on how the remaining numbers of EB1, EB3 and others were calculated.
EBS2 should it be 21 K + 3 K = around 23K instead of the 18K listed?

Was checking if based on that, the percentages change and what everyone is estimating for movement will change for EB2.

Thanks for pointing out the inconsistency.

Something went wrong copying across the EB2 USCIS figure in that table. You can check this from the original PP presentation.

The Total and therefore the % is correct.

The correct figures are:

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%


The change is highlighted in red.

I've corrected the original post.

Thanks again.

[gcvijay]

spec

Thanks for that info. What will be the realistic, pessimistic and optimistic date for eb2 india and eb3 india based on these presentation? if you do not want to make any predictions do we assume bad news? :) didn’t mean to put you on appt but actually i did :)





Thanks for pointing out the inconsistency.

Something went wrong copying across the EB2 USCIS figure in that table. You can check this from the original PP presentation.

The Total and therefore the % is correct.

The correct figures are:

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%


The change is highlighted in red.

I've corrected the original post.

Thanks again.

[Spectator]

spec

Thanks for that info. What will be the realistic, pessimistic and optimistic date for eb2 india and eb3 india based on these presentation? if you do not want to make any predictions do we assume bad news? :) didn’t mean to put you on appt but actually i did :)

There's too little data to even begin to calculate what SO might be available, where it might end up and how that might move the dates.

I'm not even trying to make that calculation.

[Jagan01]

Thanks for pointing out the inconsistency.

Something went wrong copying across the EB2 USCIS figure in that table. You can check this from the original PP presentation.

The Total and therefore the % is correct.

The correct figures are:

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%


The change is highlighted in red.

I've corrected the original post.

Thanks again.

Finally reminds me of the 2012 days when there was rapid movement. The most important news is that EB3 visas not used by EB3 will flow back to EB1 and then to EB2.

[idliman]

Finally reminds me of the 2012 days when there was rapid movement. The most important news is that EB3 visas not used by EB3 will flow back to EB1 and then to EB2.
I still remember the February 2012 bulletin where the dates moved by a year for both India and China to January 1, 2010. I thought they will stop there for sure. It continued even further eventually ending up at May 2010. Positive thoughts. Lets hope for the best.

[Jagan01]

I still remember the February 2012 bulletin where the dates moved by a year for both India and China to January 1, 2010. I thought they will stop there for sure. It continued even further eventually ending up at May 2010. Positive thoughts. Lets hope for the best.It's always good to stay positive.

My personal assessment is that EB2I ends up getting 8k of SO and that might be good enough to clear the dates until Aug 2009. CO might end up moving a couple of months more as there will be RFEs that will not be responded to in a timely manner, and therefore he might want some buffer created.

I do not think the dates will move into 2010 as there simply is too much inventory to be taken care off.

I think Spec is the best person on this forum and his statements are like gold. Spec, whats the cut-off date in your mind that EB2I will hit by the end of this FY. I know Spec is a numbers guy and will provide all the data, but he mostly wont put out cut-off dates estimates. Lets see if he does this time around ?

[knighthood83]

Back in Feb I had mentioned that AOS interviews will cause this situation. No one took me seriously then.

Folks till May 2010 will not need interviews. This will happen next year as well and same thing will happen next year as well. Folks till May 2010 are golden now. If not this year by next year May 2010 will be done.

2010 in general will see light at the end of the tunnel.

[srimurthy]

I still remember the February 2012 bulletin where the dates moved by a year for both India and China to January 1, 2010. I thought they will stop there for sure. It continued even further eventually ending up at May 2010. Positive thoughts. Lets hope for the best.

The scenario is a little different from 2012, that in 2012 the movement enabled people to file 485s. The current movement will only be to clear some of that backlog, and allowing others to file who missed it last time. Not much of a impact on inventory build up, I guess

[SonaMoni77]

The scenario is a little different from 2012, that in 2012 the movement enabled people to file 485s. The current movement will only be to clear some of that backlog, and allowing others to file who missed it last time. Not much of a impact on inventory build up, I guess


i am new to this forum

I am May 2014 EB1 India .just go ported from EB2 to EB1B . When will Eb1 india be current? Can u pls tell me

[EB3Iwaiting]

The scenario is a little different from 2012, that in 2012 the movement enabled people to file 485s. The current movement will only be to clear some of that backlog, and allowing others to file who missed it last time. Not much of a impact on inventory build up, I guess

Well, inventory build up can only happen once pending inventory diminishes. So, this will help.

[SonaMoni77]

I am EB1B-India May 2014. I just ported from EB2. When will I be current?

[LASHAB]

The scenario is a little different from 2012, that in 2012 the movement enabled people to file 485s. The current movement will only be to clear some of that backlog, and allowing others to file who missed it last time. Not much of a impact on inventory build up, I guess

I guess there maybe unaccounted Eb3-EB2 porting cases post Jul 1st 2009, which has not been current since 2012. That is the big unknown and only when dates move beying jul 2009 we can make any guess on build up.

[godhelp]

Dear Experts, I have a slightly different question, hope someone can kindly help me. My I140 is approved. My old attorney who helped me with
I140 approval many years back is retiring so I requested my client files, so that I can transfer them to my new Attorney.
Old Attorney sent me the files. On the I140 Petition, I noticed that the Attorney had done the Typo and put my SSN information wrong.
My company did not share the filled I140 forms with me, so I could review it during time of filing. Can someone kindly advise how serious is the mistake and
how can it be corrected ? Thanks a lot in Advance.

[Immigrate]

After looking at the spreadsheet on the visa issuance, I have a very optimistic view that Eb2 India should move until 2011.

140000 - 62000 = 78000 visas might be available maximum as spillover. With these numbers available Eb2 India can easily clear cases until may 2010 because applicants who have filled AOS do not need the interview.

This is just my analysis and understanding of the spreadsheet.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Wow Jonty!!

Long time.. good to see you after such a long time. One of the old timers.. didnt realize you are still around. Thought you got greened long time ago! Bleh...😉

Im with July-2010 Eb2 date and I believe and wish your opinion comes true! 😊

Also from SpecÂ’s comments on 6000 EB2 - visas being used by field offices, isnÂ’t it safe to assume that CO used 15% of the allowed field office quotas ahead of time to avoid any wastage from services centers and now he will utilize the leftovers towards Pending inventory?

V

Thanks. Still around and still waiting to get greened. :)

[EB3Iwaiting]

After looking at the spreadsheet on the visa issuance, I have a very optimistic view that Eb2 India should move until 2011.

140000 - 62000 = 78000 visas might be available maximum as spillover. With these numbers available Eb2 India can easily clear cases until may 2010 because applicants who have filled AOS do not need the interview.

This is just my analysis and understanding of the spreadsheet.

Again, you are forgetting CP cases. Spec mentioned this a few posts back.

[AceMan]

After looking at the spreadsheet on the visa issuance, I have a very optimistic view that Eb2 India should move until 2011.

140000 - 62000 = 78000 visas might be available maximum as spillover. With these numbers available Eb2 India can easily clear cases until may 2010 because applicants who have filled AOS do not need the interview.

This is just my analysis and understanding of the spreadsheet.

Unlike the past the new filers since March 2017 are handled by field offices, so we are at a massive disadvantage now to see the count of ROW for all the EB categories. I generally maintain an optimistic view, however the lack of RFE's flurry for EB2 I does not give me any confidence to see the dates going beyond March 2009 for EB2I.

Last year I was of the opinion that EB3 I should have been at March/April 2007 (@trackitt), however the dates stopped at October 2006. In addition there was no movement for the first quarter this FY. I will be happy if all the pending EB2 I till May 2010 gets cleared by the end of this FY.

[EB2-03252009]

murthy didnt sound that optimistic

https://www.murthy.com/2018/05/23/june-2018-visa-bulletin-check-in-possible-advancement-for-eb2-and-eb3-india/

Charles Oppenheim, the U.S. Department of State (DOS) Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, provides visa bulletin explanations and predictions most months. For June 2018, Mr. Oppenheim discusses the possibility of movement in the employment-based, second preference (EB2) and employment-based, third preference (EB3) categories for India.

Delays Caused by Interview Requirement May Lead to Advancement
As expected, the in-person interview requirement for most employment-based I-485 applicants has resulted in processing delays by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). More details on the interview requirement are available in the MurthyDotCom NewsBrief, USCIS Provides Clarification on In-Person Interview Requirement in EB I-485 Cases (23.Oct.2017). It appears that this has resulted in fewer-than-expected visa numbers being used. In order to ensure that the full allotment of visa numbers is used for fiscal year 2018, which ends September 30, 2018, it may be necessary to advance the cutoff date for EB2 and EB3 India, and possibly that of EB2 China.

Mr. Oppenheim does not know yet how far he may be able to advance the cutoff dates. Further, he is careful to point out that this advancement is not a certainty. If there is a fluctuation in demand, this could prevent Mr. Oppenheim from advancing the cutoff dates at all.

[NeelVohra]

murthy didnt sound that optimistic

I think we need to wait and watch what happens.

I think a few immigration attorneys have also discussed the possibility of unused EB visas being wasted/applied to FB into next year.
William Stock Tweet about Backlog (https://twitter.com/wstock215/status/998971566091309056)

Does anyone have knowledge of the reverse scenario, possibly a greater number of unused FB visas, applying to EB for next year, because of the interview requirement?

[srimurthy]

I think we need to wait and watch what happens.

I think a few immigration attorneys have also discussed the possibility of unused EB visas being wasted/applied to FB into next year.
William Stock Tweet about Backlog (https://twitter.com/wstock215/status/998971566091309056)

Does anyone have knowledge of the reverse scenario, possibly a greater number of unused FB visas, applying to EB for next year, because of the interview requirement?

Are the 485 interview requirements only for Employment based GCs or for Family based too?

[AceMan]

I think we need to wait and watch what happens.

Does anyone have knowledge of the reverse scenario, possibly a greater number of unused FB visas, applying to EB for next year, because of the interview requirement?

This has happened atleast 3 times this decade


The fiscal year 2012 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 144,951
The fiscal year 2014 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 150,241.
he fiscal year 2015 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 144,796.

[Spectator]

This has happened atleast 3 times this decade


The fiscal year 2012 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 144,951
The fiscal year 2014 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 150,241.
he fiscal year 2015 limit for employment-based preference immigrants calculated under INA 201 is 144,796.

FB Extra Visas to EB

FY2017 --------- 0
FY2016 ------- 338
FY2015 ----- 4,796
FY2014 ---- 10,241
FY2013 ---- 18,466
FY2012 ----- 4,951
FY2011 --------- 0
FY2010 ---- 10,657
FY2009 --------- 0
FY2008 ---- 22,704

Total ----- 72,153

Extra FB visas (of which there shouldn't have been any) probably represented the largest contribution to SO numbers.

Think what the Cut Off Dates would look like without them.

[march1612]

FB Extra Visas

FY2017 --------- 0
FY2016 ------- 338
FY2015 ----- 4,796
FY2014 ---- 10,241
FY2013 ---- 18,466
FY2012 ----- 4,951
FY2011 --------- 0
FY2010 ---- 10,657
FY2009 --------- 0
FY2008 ---- 22,704

Total ----- 72,153

Extra FB visas (of which there shouldn't have been any) probably represented the largest contribution to SO numbers.

Think what the Cut Off Dates would look like without them.


Spec, are you anticipating if there will be spillovers left for FB after applying it to EB?

[Spectator]

Spec, are you anticipating if there will be spillovers left for FB after applying it to EB?

No, or very limited.

Over 90% of FB visa issuances are at Consular Posts and are not affected by USCIS actions. In FY2017, only about 13.5k FB cases of 225.7k were AOS approvals, compared to 212.2k CP cases..

The FB AOS cases that USCIS do process have always needed an interview.

Here's the CP figures for October 2017 to March 2018.

Country/Cat ---- FB1 ---- FB2A ---- FB2B ---- FB3 ---- FB4 - Grand Total
China ---------- 323 --- 1,795 ----- 371 ---- 877 -- 2,725 ------- 6,091
India ---------- 160 ----- 868 ------ 78 -- 1,456 -- 6,153 ------- 8,715
Mexico --------- 620 -- 10,294 ----- 524 ---- 419 -- 2,262 ------ 14,119
Philippines ---- 867 --- 2,193 --- 1,876 ---- 626 -- 1,824 ------- 7,386
ROW --------- 12,317 -- 24,781 --- 9,196 -- 6,918 - 16,842 ------ 70,054

Grand Total - 14,287 -- 39,931 -- 12,045 - 10,296 - 29,806 ----- 106,365

CO can manage both the Filing Date and Final Action Date to ensure greater CP utilization as necessary.

[march1612]

No.

Over 90% of FB visa issuances are at Consular Posts and are not affected by USCIS actions. In FY2017, only about 13.5k FB cases of 225.7k were AOS approvals, compared to 212.2k CP cases..

The FB AOS cases that USCIS do process have always needed an interview.

Spec,
Thanks for your response . Very informative appreciate it.

Do you have any estimate of how much Spill over EB2-India might get this FY?

[Spectator]

Spec,
Thanks for your response . Very informative appreciate it.

Do you have any estimate of how much Spill over EB2-India might get this FY?

No I don't.

[redsox2009]

Secondly the Field Office approvals. There's no info for EB4 or EB5. Approvals in EB5 by USCIS are negligible anyway.

USCIS AOS Approvals
Oct-Mar -- Service -- Field --- Total -- % Field
EB1 ------- 19,344 -- 6,863 -- 26,207 ---- 26.2%
EB2 ------- 11,595 -- 6,165 -- 17,760 ---- 34.7%
EB3 -------- 7,649 -- 5,200 -- 12,849 ---- 40.5%
EB4 --------------------------- 4,220
EB5 ----------------------------- 942

Total ------------------------ 61,978



There is a reason EB3 Field approvals are higher than EB2 and EB1, last year EB1-I&C and EB2- ROW+P+M all had cut off dates in last qtr, so the filings of the AOS for these categories are less, however EB3 did not had a cutoff and they field the applications.

Also field offices in and around to metro cities are clearing faster than the other cities.

Based on Jan inventory, new filings are also fewer than compared with previous qtr's.

Q1 new 485 filings is also down compared with previous qtr's.

Right now we are in a kind of dark spot untill next clear data points are released to make any clear concise prediction.

[msbmsb]

Assuming that there are some unused visa numbers in Eb2 and some in Eb3, my understanding is that Eb2 numbers will be utilized by retrogressed countries in EB2. The same would apply to EB-3 under normal conditions. However in the scenario that is being discussed here EB3 numbers will fall up to EB-1. However what stops EB-1 from completely utilizing these numbers. If EB-1C and EB-1I both have a cut off date, wouldn't they get first dibs on these additional visa numbers?

Under which scenarios would these numbers fall down to Eb2 ?

[Jagan01]

No I don't.Oh come on Spec. You do.

There is nobody who has a better understanding of numbers compared to you. Please pick a date where you think EB2I will move to by the end of this FY. :)

[Jagan01]

One observation.

EB3I really does not have many people who had filed I485 earlier and hence most new application OR most of the new demand from EB3I is mostly going to have to go through the interview process.

I was just thinking that some people might be downgrading from EB2I to EB3I as they have a very BIG advantage. The advantage is that they would be the only candidates in EB3 that do not require an interview and can consume the SO from EB3ROW.

Am I missing something here ? I am not sure how a downgrade is interpreted ? Will a downgrade need an interview or not ?

[iatiam]

One observation.

EB3I really does not have many people who had filed I485 earlier and hence most new application OR most of the new demand from EB3I is mostly going to have to go through the interview process.

I was just thinking that some people might be downgrading from EB2I to EB3I as they have a very BIG advantage. The advantage is that they would be the only candidates in EB3 that do not require an interview and can consume the SO from EB3ROW.

Am I missing something here ? I am not sure how a downgrade is interpreted ? Will a downgrade need an interview or not ?

Here is what you are missing. EB3I dates have not caught up to EB2I dates and until that happens why would anyone reverse port? Spec had given some pointers in this direction and I was personally thinking of this. But that's when the closed loop spillover calc showed up in CO's presentation. So this year there will be no visa wastage. Reverse porting if any will happen next year.

Iatiam

[Jagan01]

Here is what you are missing. EB3I dates have not caught up to EB2I dates and until that happens why would anyone reverse port? Spec had given some pointers in this direction and I was personally thinking of this. But that's when the closed loop spillover calc showed up in CO's presentation. So this year there will be no visa wastage. Reverse porting if any will happen next year.

PC

I have read through the presentation and I do understand how the SO is going to flow. That is not what my question was.

Lets discuss the below scenario.

1. The most important thing is to determine how CO moves the dates.

2. We all know that EB3I has little to no inventory and thus CO might want to do an inventory build up and move the final action dates like the good old dates. In the past when the inventory is so low he would move it by a year. Past meaning 2010 - 2012 days.

3. Lets assume he moves the dates such that EB2I and EB3I are both having the same cut-off.

4. So lets say that the dates for both EB2I and EB3I end up at May 2009 for Aug VB.

Now lets think about someone who has PD in May 2009. He would have so many people like me ahead of him/her for the EB2I queue. But in EB3I there might virtually be nobody in front of him/her. Would it make sense for him/her to downgrade ?

For someone like me with Jan 2009 PD it does not make sense but for someone with PD in summer 2009 it might be a short cut and if executed correctly can get GC a year earlier.

[AceMan]

FB Extra Visas to EB

FY2017 --------- 0
FY2016 ------- 338
FY2015 ----- 4,796
FY2014 ---- 10,241
FY2013 ---- 18,466
FY2012 ----- 4,951
FY2011 --------- 0
FY2010 ---- 10,657
FY2009 --------- 0
FY2008 ---- 22,704

Total ----- 72,153

Extra FB visas (of which there shouldn't have been any) probably represented the largest contribution to SO numbers.

Think what the Cut Off Dates would look like without them.

Thank you Spec, for the precise detail - 10 years. In fact I had compiled the statistics of EB3 performace overthe last 10 years, i need to calculate the variance or missed numbers based on this instead of standard 40040. By any chance do you have that handy?

[texas_]

Thank you Spec, for the precise detail - 10 years. In fact I had compiled the statistics of EB3 performace overthe last 10 years, i need to calculate the variance or missed numbers based on this instead of standard 40040. By any chance do you have that handy?

Any one received RFE for 2009 yet? If yes, up till mid 2009?

[idliman]

Any one received RFE for 2009 yet? If yes, up till mid 2009? EB2I with PD 31MAR09 or earlier are getting RFE now. Many such people had reported RFE in trackitt.

[texas_]

EB2I with PD 31MAR09 or earlier are getting RFE now. Many such people had reported RFE in trackitt.

Thanks Idliman;

[AceMan]

Any one received RFE for 2009 yet? If yes, up till mid 2009?


About 10-15 people reported till March 31st 2009. Last quarter, low demand, low perms, lot of anticipation.

[EB2-03252009]

http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-as-of-may-2018/

[Spectator]

Thank you Spec, for the precise detail - 10 years. In fact I had compiled the statistics of EB3 performace overthe last 10 years, i need to calculate the variance or missed numbers based on this instead of standard 40040. By any chance do you have that handy?


This is probably what you are looking for:


----------- Alloc. -- Actual
Category --- EB3 ------ EB3 ------- Diff.
FY2017 --- 40,040 --- 37,770 ---- (2,270)
FY2016 --- 40,137 --- 37,540 ---- (2,597)
FY2015 --- 41,413 --- 37,450 ---- (3,963)
FY2014 --- 42,969 --- 42,699 ------ (270)
FY2013 --- 45,321 --- 43,740 ---- (1,581)
FY2012 --- 41,456 --- 39,549 ---- (1,907)
FY2011 --- 40,040 --- 37,425 ---- (2,615)
FY2010 --- 43,088 --- 42,431 ------ (657)
FY2009 --- 40,040 --- 39,778 ------ (262)
FY2008 --- 46,533 --- 47,165 ------- 632

Total --- 421,037 -- 405,547 --- (15,490)

Be careful in making a categorical statement that these are lost to EB3-India alone.

Most EB3 Countries were retrogressed as well over this period. USCIS failings in processing cases in a timely fashion, or DOS moving the dates sufficiently, apply equally to them as well. Ultimately though, EB3-ROW would likely have become Current sooner and EB3-I would have benefited for a longer period.


This table shows, among other things, how EB3-I has benefited over the period, even though it might have been more if EB3 had been managed properly.

----------- Total ------ 7% ------ Total ---- 7% ------------- EB3-I Over/
Category -- EB1-3 ---- EB1-3 ----- EB4-5 -- EB4-5 --- EB3-I - (Under) vs 7%
FY2017 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 6,641 -------- 3,838
FY2016 --- 40,137 ---- 2,810 ----- 9,964 ---- 697 --- 4,617 -------- 1,807
FY2015 --- 41,413 ---- 2,899 ---- 10,280 ---- 720 --- 7,026 -------- 4,127
FY2014 --- 42,969 ---- 3,008 ---- 10,667 ---- 747 --- 3,526 ---------- 518
FY2013 --- 45,321 ---- 3,172 ---- 11,251 ---- 788 --- 7,816 -------- 4,644
FY2012 --- 41,456 ---- 2,902 ---- 10,291 ---- 720 --- 2,804 ---------- (98)
FY2011 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 4,002 -------- 1,199
FY2010 --- 43,088 ---- 3,016 ---- 10,697 ---- 749 --- 3,036 ----------- 20
FY2009 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 2,304 --------- (499)
FY2008 --- 46,533 ---- 3,257 ---- 11,552 ---- 809 --- 3,745 ---------- 488

Total ------------------------------------------------------------- 16,044

[march1612]

Will there be any spill over from EB4 and EB5 categories? interview process might have effected these categories too.

[iatiam]

http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-as-of-may-2018/

Just to jog everyone's memory, ImmigrationGirl (Emily Neumann) and her partner Rahul Reddy are partly responsible for the GC backlog mess that we see today. Search for ITserve video and you will see. These lawyers including Murthy are not the friends of immigrants. Appreciate everyone stop posting links to their websites! Also, please take what they say with a huge pile of sodium chloride.

Iatiam

[texas_]

Just to jog everyone's memory, ImmigrationGirl (Emily Neumann) and her partner Rahul Reddy are partly responsible for the GC backlog mess that we see today. Search for ITserve video and you will see. These lawyers including Murthy are not the friends of immigrants. Appreciate everyone stop posting links to their websites! Also, please take what they say with a huge pile of sodium chloride.

Iatiam

I agree with you whole heatedly. It's the Rahul Reddy, Murthy aunty and some US based counter parts are heavily responsible for current back-log.
I don't give any incentive nothing new that they are saying just posting videos and marketing etc

[signup4deals]

Just to jog everyone's memory, ImmigrationGirl (Emily Neumann) and her partner Rahul Reddy are partly responsible for the GC backlog mess that we see today. Search for ITserve video and you will see. These lawyers including Murthy are not the friends of immigrants. Appreciate everyone stop posting links to their websites! Also, please take what they say with a huge pile of sodium chloride.

Iatiam
Sorry, I am not very active in this forum.
Can somebody please explain what they did to increase the back-log?

Thanks

[iatiam]

I agree with you whole heatedly. It's the Rahul Reddy, Murthy aunty and some US based counter parts are heavily responsible for current back-log.
I don't give any incentive nothing new that they are saying just posting videos and marketing etc

Also, if you read through her blog (which Indian's love BTW), she makes two astounding predictions,

1. EB3 India will not be current next month
2. EB2 India will move to 2009

Obviously it doesn't take very high IQ to make these two predictions. Emily isn't too happy that she might lose some business when dates move ahead.

Iatiam

[redsox2009]

2018 Apr Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
00
00
00
05
29
07
170
211


EB2
01
05
00
25
117
03
114
265


EB3
100
98
15
558
39
05
328
1143


EB4
05
24
01
08
02
02
158
200


EB5
70
36
15
00
29
87
145
382


Total
176
163
31
596
216
104
915
2201

[redsox2009]

Year to date Monthly Family Immigrant Visa Issuance

Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
ROW
Total


Total
7209
10108
16653
8785
82368
125123

[vckomara]

About 10-15 people reported till March 31st 2009. Last quarter, low demand, low perms, lot of anticipation.

I have received RFE for medicals and I485 supJ and my PD is September 2009

[AceMan]

This is probably what you are looking for:


----------- Alloc. -- Actual
Category --- EB3 ------ EB3 ------- Diff.
FY2017 --- 40,040 --- 37,770 ---- (2,270)
FY2016 --- 40,137 --- 37,540 ---- (2,597)
FY2015 --- 41,413 --- 37,450 ---- (3,963)
FY2014 --- 42,969 --- 42,699 ------ (270)
FY2013 --- 45,321 --- 43,740 ---- (1,581)
FY2012 --- 41,456 --- 39,549 ---- (1,907)
FY2011 --- 40,040 --- 37,425 ---- (2,615)
FY2010 --- 43,088 --- 42,431 ------ (657)
FY2009 --- 40,040 --- 39,778 ------ (262)
FY2008 --- 46,533 --- 47,165 ------- 632

Total --- 421,037 -- 405,547 --- (15,490)

Be careful in making a categorical statement that these are lost to EB3-India alone.

Most EB3 Countries were retrogressed as well over this period. USCIS failings in processing cases in a timely fashion, or DOS moving the dates sufficiently, apply equally to them as well. Ultimately though, EB3-ROW would likely have become Current sooner and EB3-I would have benefited for a longer period.


This table shows, among other things, how EB3-I has benefited over the period, even though it might have been more if EB3 had been managed properly.

----------- Total ---- Total ------ 7% ----- 7% -------------- EB3-I Over/
Category -- EB1-3 ---- EB4-5 ----- EB1-3 -- EB4-5 --- EB3-I - (Under) vs 7%
FY2017 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 6,641 -------- 3,838
FY2016 --- 40,137 ---- 2,810 ----- 9,964 ---- 697 --- 4,617 -------- 1,807
FY2015 --- 41,413 ---- 2,899 ---- 10,280 ---- 720 --- 7,026 -------- 4,127
FY2014 --- 42,969 ---- 3,008 ---- 10,667 ---- 747 --- 3,526 ---------- 518
FY2013 --- 45,321 ---- 3,172 ---- 11,251 ---- 788 --- 7,816 -------- 4,644
FY2012 --- 41,456 ---- 2,902 ---- 10,291 ---- 720 --- 2,804 ---------- (98)
FY2011 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 4,002 -------- 1,199
FY2010 --- 43,088 ---- 3,016 ---- 10,697 ---- 749 --- 3,036 ----------- 20
FY2009 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 2,304 --------- (499)
FY2008 --- 46,533 ---- 3,257 ---- 11,552 ---- 809 --- 3,745 ---------- 488

Total ------------------------------------------------------------- 16,044


Thanks Spec, Spot on. You read my mind. Yes, the loss was for EB3 as a whole. I was expecting EB3-ROW to be current by FY 15 end, however it became current only for the last quarter of FY 17.

[AceMan]

I have received RFE for medicals and I485 supJ and my PD is September 2009

Nice, did you receive this RFE recently or is it a while?

[idliman]

I know there is discussion regarding how much spillover EB1 will use before it carries over to EB2. The spillover flow per DOS (CO) is:
EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
EB2 --> EB3
EB3 --> EB1 --> EB2
EB4 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3

I believe that to move EB2 dates, they have to make EB1 current to apply the spillover. All the EB applicants (EB1 through EB3) need an interview if their I-485 was filed on 06MAR17 or later. I am not sure of interview requirements for EB4 and EB5 as they don't have to file I-140. Are they doing interviews when the dates are not current for EB1's? How many EB1 applications are pre adjudicated and ready to go?

[AceMan]

I know there is discussion regarding how much spillover EB1 will use before it carries over to EB2. The spillover flow per DOS (CO) is:
EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
EB2 --> EB3
EB3 --> EB1 --> EB2
EB4 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3

I believe that to move EB2 dates, they have to make EB1 current to apply the spillover. All the EB applicants (EB1 through EB3) need an interview if their I-485 was filed on 06MAR17 or later. I am not sure of interview requirements for EB4 and EB5 as they don't have to file I-140. Are they doing interviews when the dates are not current for EB1's? How many EB1 applications are pre adjudicated and ready to go?

A strict interpretation of the rule, would be if they cannot use the EB3 numbers by September last(FY end) the numbers move over to the FB category for the next FY. However I believe CO has the autonomy to move the dates within the category as he deems fit in the final quarter. Logically the numbers would have to go to EB2 I for the most effective utilization of the numbers, but who knows.

And from this year onwards we started getting the mandatory interview requests as well. This meant the new filers from March 2017 are not going to be displayed in demand data anymore starting April 2018. July bulletin prediction is definitely going to be a roulette (earlier predictions can be equated to blackjack with card counting) with very limited reliable data.

[march1612]

I have received RFE for medicals and I485 supJ and my PD is September 2009


what is your category EB2? EB3?

[vckomara]

Nice, did you receive this RFE recently or is it a while?

I received about 45 days ago and I am in EB-2. Not sure if this means any movement though.

[march1612]

I received about 45 days ago and I am in EB-2. Not sure if this means any movement though.

Can you confirm if you are EB2-I?

[vckomara]

Can you confirm if you are EB2-I?
Yes EB-2I September 2009 PD.

[horizon]

I received about 45 days ago and I am in EB-2. Not sure if this means any movement though.

I am skeptical that it means anything. They sent a bunch of RFEs in 2016 for 2009 PD. It meant nothing then. All it ended up doing was wasting our time and money in doing medicals and other paperwork. I am glad NSC is not sending RFEs in advance this time (based on Trackitt). I rather have the RFE sent after the date is announced current than wasting more money on medicals

[godhelp]

I am skeptical that it means anything. They sent a bunch of RFEs in 2016 for 2009 PD. It meant nothing then. All it ended up doing was wasting our time and money in doing medicals and other paperwork. I am glad NSC is not sending RFEs in advance this time (based on Trackitt). I rather have the RFE sent after the date is announced current than wasting more money on medicals

Dear Friends, Kindly please share your best guess,
as when EB3 India Sep 2009 priority might come current. I am in
India now, my employer is trying to file my H1B, but looks like
getting H1B approval is becoming very difficult these days.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Dear Friends, Kindly please share your best guess,
as when EB3 India Sep 2009 priority might come current. I am in
India now, my employer is trying to file my H1B, but looks like
getting H1B approval is becoming very difficult these days.

Could be in the next few months. Just hang in there. You could get your GC in 1 yr from now.

[AceMan]

I received about 45 days ago and I am in EB-2. Not sure if this means any movement though.

Hmm, It is too early to get optimistic for your date. The RFE activities in EB2 I has been all before March 2009. However watch out for the 1st week of June to see if the RFE's are being issued for people beyond March 2009. That might give us a pointer if it is a real one, on just a trigger for expired medicals.

As of now, I am not sure what to make out for July bulletin for EB2 India. My logical assumption would be 1st April 2009 for EB 2 I and the lack of visibility for EB3 I indicates the same date possible for EB3 as well?

If EB3 I dates are moved to December 2009, lot of EB2 I filers may be eligible to file Supp J and use the available numbers.

[newyorker123]

I hear lot of chatter that EB2 dates are going to jump in coming months.
My date is in early 2012.
Gurus , very optimistically speaking, is there any chance of my date being current in 2019 or even 2020 ?

[idliman]

I hear lot of chatter that EB2 dates are going to jump in coming months.
My date is in early 2012.
Gurus , very optimistically speaking, is there any chance of my date being current in 2019 or even 2020 ?
So you are in early 2012. You should realize by now that EB2I and EB3I are going to move together very soon. My crude estimate is 18,000 in 2011, 18,000 in 2010 and 10,000 in 2009. There are approx 46,000 (EB2I+EB3I) applicants before you. Without spillover it will take nearly 9 years for your dates to become current. Last year EB2I did not have any meaningful spillover. So, I don't think anyone can predict now. But, you need huge amount of spillover (in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 per year) for early 2012 to be current. These huge spillovers are usually associated with a recession or financial market collapse or some extreme event which might not be beneficial to your job security. With these crude numbers, you can predict yourself what needs to happen for you to become current. Sorry. I am just trying to present the facts without adding sugar.

[newyorker123]

Thank you, I will go back into my cave. EB1A / EB1C seems to be the only way out.

[march1612]

So you are in early 2012. You should realize by now that EB2I and EB3I are going to move together very soon. My crude estimate is 18,000 in 2011, 18,000 in 2010 and 10,000 in 2009. There are approx 46,000 (EB2I+EB3I) applicants before you. Without spillover it will take nearly 9 years for your dates to become current. Last year EB2I did not have any meaningful spillover. So, I don't think anyone can predict now. But, you need huge amount of spillover (in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 per year) for early 2012 to be current. These huge spillovers are usually associated with a recession or financial market collapse or some extreme event which might not be beneficial to your job security. With these crude numbers, you can predict yourself what needs to happen for you to become current. Sorry. I am just trying to present the facts without adding sugar.

What would be meaningful movement that we can anticipate for EB2-I in July, Aug, Sept 2018? Would it reach May 2010?

[LASHAB]

Looking at pending inventory (latest reports are not accurate at all, but considering historic data) with reasonable spillover we should clear 2009, but again the processing timelines in fieldoffices and related potential wastage is still not quantifiable. In worst case scenarios we are looking at March-April 2009. This is what CO had predicted few months back. Going by past years, worst case scenario maybe the likely one, unfortunately.

[vckomara]

Hmm, It is too early to get optimistic for your date. The RFE activities in EB2 I has been all before March 2009. However watch out for the 1st week of June to see if the RFE's are being issued for people beyond March 2009. That might give us a pointer if it is a real one, on just a trigger for expired medicals.

As of now, I am not sure what to make out for July bulletin for EB2 India. My logical assumption would be 1st April 2009 for EB 2 I and the lack of visibility for EB3 I indicates the same date possible for EB3 as well?

If EB3 I dates are moved to December 2009, lot of EB2 I filers may be eligible to file Supp J and use the available numbers.

Not optimistic as I have seen same thing happen last year even for Oct-2009 PDs. With EB2 dates hardly moving week or two every month, what makes you think it will move 4 months in next bulletin? What is the reasoning behind optimism?

[AceMan]

Not optimistic as I have seen same thing happen last year even for Oct-2009 PDs. With EB2 dates hardly moving week or two every month, what makes you think it will move 4 months in next bulletin? What is the reasoning behind optimism?

Few factors. Low demand in EB2-ROW, sustained steady reports of RFE for people in EB2 I before March 31st 2009 in multiple forums. Above all July being the start of final quarter for FY18. So even if the RFE's come in June, people should be able to respond to them before September which can result in the numbers getting utilized this FY itself.

EB2 I 2009 has close to 10 K people waiting for GC without the need for interview.

[texas_]

An off-topic question:

Can one apply for 140 based EAD (compelling circumstances) if Priority Date is less than 1 year range?

If so I heard one has to go for consular processing for I 485.

Please advise;

[AceMan]

An off-topic question:

Can one apply for 140 based EAD (compelling circumstances) if Priority Date is less than 1 year range?

If so I heard one has to go for consular processing for I 485.

Please advise;

:-D, I understand your question and reason for the same from your individual perspective,
However the number of applicants in 2016 under this clause can be counted by hand if you are not aware.

So if you think what you heard is right, why is the number of applicants in 2016 under this compelling circumstances this low?

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

Without any legislative process, EB for India is in soup, you can expect some spill over due to increase in time process due to mandatory 485 interviews but these will catch up next year.. You may not have any spill over next year again.. So our good bet is spreading news on HR 392 BILL which is having some chances of passing in house.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/392

I see that related Senate version is having only 4 sponsors, which needs some push.
keep calling your senators.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/281

Regards
Tatikonda


Few factors. Low demand in EB2-ROW, sustained steady reports of RFE for people in EB2 I before March 31st 2009 in multiple forums. Above all July being the start of final quarter for FY18. So even if the RFE's come in June, people should be able to respond to them before September which can result in the numbers getting utilized this FY itself.

EB2 I 2009 has close to 10 K people waiting for GC without the need for interview.

[AceMan]

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/files/nativedocuments/Count_of_Approved_I-140_I-360_and_I-526_Petitions_as_of_April_20_2018_with_a_Priority_ Date_On_or_After_May_2018.PDF

Latest information on approved I-140 till April 2018.

[sathya4x4]

does this bill HR392 include funding for beautiful wall?
no?
"I wont sign it" says Don!
Trump says he won’t sign immigration bill without money for border wall
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-he-wont-sign-immigration-bill-without-money-for-border-wall-doj-briefing-on-russia-probe-documents-now-bipartisan-2018-05-24

[altek001]

Hi All,

Without any legislative process, EB for India is in soup, you can expect some spill over due to increase in time process due to mandatory 485 interviews but these will catch up next year.. You may not have any spill over next year again.. So our good bet is spreading news on HR 392 BILL which is having some chances of passing in house.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/house-bill/392

I see that related Senate version is having only 4 sponsors, which needs some push.
keep calling your senators.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/281

Regards
Tatikonda

HR 4760 is a bill that covers all areas that President Trump wants in terms of border security, ending chain migration and increasing EB counts by 45%. Paul Ryan could not bring this bill to a floor vote since eight months. Does anyone in the forum still think HR392 is getting any attention other than twitter or RHC/IV propaganda. Per country limit is not just for EB but FB cases also come under it. Removing caps have a broader implicit on diversity and there is no way Congress can change it.

There is a resolution to get house members to vote on all 4 bills by end of June'18 to see what each representative stands for on Immigration and if they just talk or walk the talk. This will decide their reelection in November. It's an utter failure since DACA ended that kept legal immigrants in Limbo.

[qesehmk]

Per country limit is not just for EB but FB cases also come under it. Removing caps have a broader implicit on diversity and there is no way Congress can change it.
True.

Country cap is critical for the state department and their objectives. It is a useful tool to cultivate foreign talent and intelligence. For commerce dept and american corporations country cap is useful to continue H1B slavery.

Removal of country cap is not going to happen through advocacy only. The backlogged indian community needs to make a sustained campaign to highlight slavery which is so unamerican. They need to fight this in the courts. Even then the chances are slim.

Trump is a monkey wrench in the way the government was run (regardless of party lines). He may actually be useful. But good luck trying to get him to do it ... not just because he is so unpredictable but also because how much racist his entire administration and Trump supporters are.

If you are doing any serious work on removal of country caps then you better understand these fundamentals to ensure some degree of success.

[EB3Iwaiting]

I have a question and sorry for the diversion:

When ROWs file I-140 and I-485 concurrently, do they only get EAD/AP after the I-140 is approved or do they still get it in the normal processing time which is around 90 days regardless of when the I-140 is approved? Logic tells me that they should get EAD/AP only after the I-140 is approved, which begs me to ask why they simply do not get it done in premium processing to speed up their GC issuance?

[Spectator]

I have a question and sorry for the diversion:

When ROWs file I-140 and I-485 concurrently, do they only get EAD/AP after the I-140 is approved or do they still get it in the normal processing time which is around 90 days regardless of when the I-140 is approved? Logic tells me that they should get EAD/AP only after the I-140 is approved, which begs me to ask why they simply do not get it done in premium processing to speed up their GC issuance?

EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks for bringing the discussion back on track.

The approval and issuance of EAD/AP does not depend on the approval of the I-140 - it's a benefit of a pending I-485, not an approved I-140.

[EB2-03252009]

@cyrusmehta

Charlie Oppenheim at AILA DC meeting tonight says that India EB-2 cutoff date in July 2018 visa bulletin will be March 15, 2009 but there will be advances in India EB-3 and China EB-2 through the summer. No advances in China EB-3. Does not have any cutoff dates for them as yet

CO did say that 3/15/09 date for EB-2 I would be held for rest of year unless he sees demand bottoming out at end of summer and then there could be some advance a little bit, but he said to not count on that

[iatiam]

@cyrusmehta

Charlie Oppenheim at AILA DC meeting tonight says that India EB-2 cutoff date in July 2018 visa bulletin will be March 15, 2009 but there will be advances in India EB-3 and China EB-2 through the summer. No advances in China EB-3. Does not have any cutoff dates for them as yet

CO did say that 3/15/09 date for EB-2 I would be held for rest of year unless he sees demand bottoming out at end of summer and then there could be some advance a little bit, but he said to not count on that

This is a bit of a bummer since the same dude tweeted about "Rapid" movement not so long ago. So 2-months is now considered rapid? Also, where is CO going to find the adjucated 485s required to fill the visa supply? This movement is worth 2500 visas or so. Even if dates move forward for EB3, there won't be enough time to schedule interviews and approve GCs.

The only good news is that EB3 will move forward and put an end to porting.

Iatiam

[EB3Iwaiting]

This is a bit of a bummer since the same dude tweeted about "Rapid" movement not so long ago. So 2-months is now considered rapid? Also, where is CO going to find the adjucated 485s required to fill the visa supply? This movement is worth 2500 visas or so. Even if dates move forward for EB3, there won't be enough time to schedule interviews and approve GCs.

The only good news is that EB3 will move forward and put an end to porting.

Iatiam

Here is what I feel and I could be completely wrong. The movement CO has given EB2I is probably only based on the horizontal SO from EB2ROW due to delays in GC issuance for mandatory interviews. He has not given any indication where he will move EB3I as he has no idea how many will be issued by the end of the year. I have a feeling that if he sees not enough are issued, he will move EB2I further to reduce wastage. Of course, I could be completely wrong about this thinking.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks for bringing the discussion back on track.

The approval and issuance of EAD/AP does not depend on the approval of the I-140 - it's a benefit of a pending I-485, not an approved I-140.

Thanks for the clarification Spec. The benefit of the pending I-485 makes sense, however, if the I-140 is denied, the pending I-485 would be denied anyway which makes the EAD/AP null and void. Kind of makes an odd situation, cos the applicant still has to maintain the underlying non immigrant status.

[vckomara]

@cyrusmehta

Charlie Oppenheim at AILA DC meeting tonight says that India EB-2 cutoff date in July 2018 visa bulletin will be March 15, 2009 but there will be advances in India EB-3 and China EB-2 through the summer. No advances in China EB-3. Does not have any cutoff dates for them as yet

CO did say that 3/15/09 date for EB-2 I would be held for rest of year unless he sees demand bottoming out at end of summer and then there could be some advance a little bit, but he said to not count on that

Does EB2 holding same for rest of the year mean rest of 2018 or until October’18?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Does EB2 holding same for rest of the year mean rest of 2018 or until October’18?

Till Sep 2018 - end of this FY. EB2I gets a fresh set of visas on Oct 1 as it is the start of the next FY.

[texas_]

Till Sep 2018 - end of this FY. EB2I gets a fresh set of visas on Oct 1 as it is the start of the next FY.

EB3 I seems to advance better than EB2 I and catch up at one point this FY.

[Spectator]

Thanks for the clarification Spec. The benefit of the pending I-485 makes sense, however, if the I-140 is denied, the pending I-485 would be denied anyway which makes the EAD/AP null and void. Kind of makes an odd situation, cos the applicant still has to maintain the underlying non immigrant status.

Maintaining status is possible and fairly easy if you happen to be in either H or L status.

For other, non dual intent visa classes, it's not so simple.

Ignoring the obvious F and J classes, let's look at a visa very similar in scope to the H visa - the O visa.

Once the I-485 is received by USCIS, O visa holders are landlocked without an AP in hand.

Without one, if they leave the USA for work or pleasure, then they have abandoned the I-485 application. They can only leave with Advance Parole. Having used it, they have lost their O status.

For many dependents, having an EAD may be their first chance to work, even though it means losing their visa status.

Even if they don't wish to, the EAD enables them to to obtain a SSN. You shouldn't minimize how useful this is. People without a SSN often feel like third class citizens, because it is used for (or helps with) everything in the real world - from the DMV to obtaining credit. This is something achievable without loss of status, as long as they don't use the EAD to work.