EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[imdeng]

Its actually pretty depressing to see that not only there is no decline in PERM demand - there is actually a significant increase. Only silver lining (sort of, not for people getting in line these days) is that a large proportion of new PERMs are from EB-2/3-I so it does not affect spillover.


There's an ebb and flow to the pace of OFLC PERM processing.

Currently, they are processing at a far slower rate than applications have been received (after a sustained period where the opposite was true and the backlog numbers reduced).

Here's some historical figures showing PERM applications received, applications processed and the backlog at the end of the FY.

FY ----- Received --- Processed --- Backlog
FY2009 --- 60,977 ------ 36,409 ---- 66,685
FY2010 --- 43,984 ------ 82,685 ---- 29,993
FY2011 --- 67,383 ------ 78,980 ---- 19,807
FY2012 --- 69,738 ------ 66,488 ---- 22,860
FY2013 --- 72,462 ------ 42,491 ---- 49,826
FY2014 --- 74,936 ------ 70,998 ---- 54,523
FY2015 --- 87,644 ------ 89,151 ---- 54,559
FY2016 --- 97,504 ----- 126,143 ---- 26,669
FY2017 -- 105,034 ------ 97,603 ---- 38,819


To date, there is no credible evidence that underlying PERM applications have reduced. The Q1 FY2018 statistics are due soon, which will give the next data point.

[redsox2009]

Year/Month
India 2016
China 2016
Row 2016

India 2017
China 2017
Row 2017

India 2018
China 2018
Row 2018


OCT
3726
620
2870

4851
704
2887

2571
473
1979


NOV
3704
574
2484

4118
744
2677

3020
656
2168


DEC
5120
784
3392

3429
604
2413

2337
600
1762


JAN
4441
744
4472

3582
646
2725

393#
93#
307#


FEB
5658
942
3795

3830
507
2153

N/A
N/A
N/A


MAR
5622
901
3927

4750
777
2811

N/A
N/A
N/A


APR
5103
793
3333

4646
682
2522

N/A
N/A
N/A


MAY
5898
833
4034

4554
817
3069

N/A
N/A
N/A


JUN
6401
1141
3994

4514
790
2931

N/A
N/A
N/A


JUL
5247
902
3236

2640
452
1644

N/A
N/A
N/A


AUG
5527
899
3366

1808
343
1209

N/A
N/A
N/A


SEP
5397
772
2653

4631
905
3185

N/A
N/A
N/A


TOTAL
61844
9905
41556

47353
7971
30226

8321
1822
6216



# Indicates upto Jan 8th 2018.

I doesn't want to JINX the approvals, right now the PERM approvals are down when compared with previous two Years.

If this trend continues EB2 ROW will be current throught out the year and there might be NICE spill over for EB3 India and China.

South Korea Filings are down, South Korea is the major chunk eater of the ROW visas.

China PERM filings increased compared to previous years.

Also as per the law firm which my company uses, ROW Surge in the PERM filings are due to the Trump Administration Polices, they are worried how it might change in future, and they wanted to file when things are in their favor. But Interview made the perm filings down for ROW as they have to spend extra for translator and attorney.


source for the data is permchecker

[rhythm]

Year/Month
India 2016
China 2016
Row 2016

India 2017
China 2017
Row 2017

India 2018
China 2018
Row 2018


OCT
3726
620
2870

4851
704
2887

2571
473
1979


NOV
3704
574
2484

4118
744
2677

3020
656
2168


DEC
5120
784
3392

3429
604
2413

2337
600
1762


JAN
4441
744
4472

3582
646
2725

393#
93#
307#


FEB
5658
942
3795

3830
507
2153

N/A
N/A
N/A


MAR
5622
901
3927

4750
777
2811

N/A
N/A
N/A


APR
5103
793
3333

4646
682
2522

N/A
N/A
N/A


MAY
5898
833
4034

4554
817
3069

N/A
N/A
N/A


JUN
6401
1141
3994

4514
790
2931

N/A
N/A
N/A


JUL
5247
902
3236

2640
452
1644

N/A
N/A
N/A


AUG
5527
899
3366

1808
343
1209

N/A
N/A
N/A


SEP
5397
772
2653

4631
905
3185

N/A
N/A
N/A


TOTAL
61844
9905
41556

47353
7971
30226

8321
1822
6216



# Indicates upto Jan 8th 2018.

I doesn't want to JINX the approvals, right now the PERM approvals are down when compared with previous two Years.

If this trend continues EB2 ROW will be current throught out the year and there might be NICE spill over for EB3 India and China.

South Korea Filings are down, South Korea is the major chunk eater of the ROW visas.

China PERM filings increased compared to previous years.

Also as per the law firm which my company uses, ROW Surge in the PERM filings are due to the Trump Administration Polices, they are worried how it might change in future, and they wanted to file when things are in their favor. But Interview made the perm filings down for ROW as they have to spend extra for translator and attorney.


source for the data is permchecker

India numbers started turning around in Dec 2016 (FY 2017); right after Trump was elected. Must be coincidence.. or is it ? :)

[iatiam]

Year/Month
India 2016
China 2016
Row 2016

India 2017
China 2017
Row 2017

India 2018
China 2018
Row 2018


OCT
3726
620
2870

4851
704
2887

2571
473
1979


NOV
3704
574
2484

4118
744
2677

3020
656
2168


DEC
5120
784
3392

3429
604
2413

2337
600
1762


JAN
4441
744
4472

3582
646
2725

393#
93#
307#


FEB
5658
942
3795

3830
507
2153

N/A
N/A
N/A


MAR
5622
901
3927

4750
777
2811

N/A
N/A
N/A


APR
5103
793
3333

4646
682
2522

N/A
N/A
N/A


MAY
5898
833
4034

4554
817
3069

N/A
N/A
N/A


JUN
6401
1141
3994

4514
790
2931

N/A
N/A
N/A


JUL
5247
902
3236

2640
452
1644

N/A
N/A
N/A


AUG
5527
899
3366

1808
343
1209

N/A
N/A
N/A


SEP
5397
772
2653

4631
905
3185

N/A
N/A
N/A


TOTAL
61844
9905
41556

47353
7971
30226

8321
1822
6216



# Indicates upto Jan 8th 2018.

I doesn't want to JINX the approvals, right now the PERM approvals are down when compared with previous two Years.

If this trend continues EB2 ROW will be current throught out the year and there might be NICE spill over for EB3 India and China.

South Korea Filings are down, South Korea is the major chunk eater of the ROW visas.

China PERM filings increased compared to previous years.

Also as per the law firm which my company uses, ROW Surge in the PERM filings are due to the Trump Administration Polices, they are worried how it might change in future, and they wanted to file when things are in their favor. But Interview made the perm filings down for ROW as they have to spend extra for translator and attorney.


source for the data is permchecker
Nice work, RedSox. This is even before any major policy change and a more than robust economy. As and when the rule makings change this year - H1B employee/employer relation and H1B pre-registration then expect the results to be more dramatic. I think in a year's time we are looking at a scenario where multiple things coming together - EB3I backlog clearing, PERM slowdown, rampant H1B denials. This will be an interesting year to watch in terms of immigration alone.

Iatiam

[EB2-03252009]

Spec,

any plans to update trackitt numbers this year?

[maverick4fun]

Hi all,

My PD is Dec 2008 EB2I.

I ported from EB3 to EB2 and filed my I485 in Nov'15 when the filing date was introduced. I received EAD/ AP after that. I've been in H1B while renewing my EAD. My medicals had expired long back and I've neither received a RFE (not even at time of renewing EAD/AP) nor an interview appointment till now.

So I have 2 questions:

1) I am not sure what will happen next when the date becomes current in next 2 months (hopefully). Can someone guide ?
2) Since my 485 was filed before the cut off for visa interviews, does that mean I will be exempt from interview ?

I would appreciate the guidance here.

Thanks.

[eb2visa]

Visa Builletin

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-february-2018.html


Employment Second:

Worldwide: Current
China: Several months
India: Up to two weeks

Employment Third:

Worldwide: Current
China: Up to five months
India: One to three months
Mexico: Current
Philippines: Up to one month

[imdeng]

EB3 directions mentioned in VB seems very promising. EB2 down in the dumps as usual.

[nagendra75]

Hi all,

My PD is Dec 2008 EB2I.

I ported from EB3 to EB2 and filed my I485 in Nov'15 when the filing date was introduced. I received EAD/ AP after that. I've been in H1B while renewing my EAD. My medicals had expired long back and I've neither received a RFE (not even at time of renewing EAD/AP) nor an interview appointment till now.

So I have 2 questions:

1) I am not sure what will happen next when the date becomes current in next 2 months (hopefully). Can someone guide ?
2) Since my 485 was filed before the cut off for visa interviews, does that mean I will be exempt from interview ?

I would appreciate the guidance here.

Thanks.

You should be receiving your RFEs soon for your medicals and I485J if you invoked an AC21. It will happen so do not worry.
Yes, you are exempted from the interview since you filed for 485 in 2015. Good luck buddy and hope your stress levels come down...

[jd2000]

EB3 directions mentioned in VB seems very promising. EB2 down in the dumps as usual.

Actually EB2I should expect a good spillover from EB3 category, EB3I inventory is deliberately not being built up after July 2007. The spillover in EB3 is expected to be more than the existing numbers till July 2007. USCIS is not accepting filing dates for February too.. it is too late to accept new I485 applications this year and approve them before the end of the fiscal year (with the added interview requirement, it takes even longer)

The interview requirement will also slow down processing in other categories increasing spillover.. all of that will go to EB1C and EB2I

[Spectator]

FY2017 Visa Approvals

FY2017-EB Visa Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,337 --- 2,559 --- 2,524 ----- 116 -- 7,567 --- 19,103
INDIA ---- 13,081 --- 2,879 --- 6,641 ----- 790 ---- 174 --- 23,565
MEXICO ---- 1,553 --- 1,411 --- 1,794 ----- 707 ----- 85 ---- 5,550
PHIL. ------- 136 --- 1,785 --- 6,675 ----- 228 ------ 0 ---- 8,824
ROW ------ 20,720 -- 31,327 -- 20,136 --- 8,114 -- 2,264 --- 82,561

TOTAL ---- 41,827 -- 39,961 -- 37,770 --- 9,955 - 10,090 -- 139,603

EB 2 Approvals

THEORETICAL SPILLOVER
EB1 ------------- 0
EB2-M ------- 1,392
EB2-P ------- 1,018
EB2-ROW ---- (2,499)
EB4 ------------- 0
EB5 ------------- 0
TOTAL --------- (89)


A potential 281 visas could be available to EB in FY2018.

[EB2-03252009]

Thanks Spec

Do the spillovers from EB2-M and EB2-P shld go to EB2-ROW or most backlogged country EB2-I?

[EB3Iwaiting]

FY2017 Visa Approvals

FY2017-EB Visa Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,337 --- 2,559 --- 2,524 ----- 116 -- 7,567 --- 19,103
INDIA ---- 13,081 --- 2,879 --- 6,641 ----- 790 ---- 174 --- 23,565
MEXICO ---- 1,553 --- 1,411 --- 1,794 ----- 707 ----- 85 ---- 5,550
PHIL. ------- 136 --- 1,785 --- 6,675 ----- 228 ------ 0 ---- 8,824
ROW ------ 20,720 -- 31,327 -- 20,136 --- 8,114 -- 2,264 --- 82,561

TOTAL ---- 41,827 -- 39,961 -- 37,770 --- 9,955 - 10,090 -- 139,603

EB 2 Approvals



THEORETICAL SPILLOVER
EB1 ------------- 0
EB2-M ------- 1,392
EB2-P ------- 1,018
EB2-ROW ---- (2,499)
EB4 ------------- 0
EB5 ------------- 0
TOTAL --------- (89)


A potential 281 visas could be available to EB in FY2018.

So, once again EB3 did not get their overall 40k. They got some 2.2k less and those were diverted to EB1. Amazing! They do this same s*** every year and get away with it as there is no accountability.

[EB3Iwaiting]

This also shows that EB3ROW demand seems to be higher than EB3ROW. Wasn't there a discussion here about EB3ROW demand being higher than EB2ROW?

[bourne_ny]

Spillover for EB2-I has completely dried up, just 2879 approvals this year. Does this mean EB2-1 won’t go beyond mid-March 2009 (based on Aug pending inventory) for fiscal year 2018? It looks like all the spillovers are being completely diverted to EB1-I. I’m not sure if EB2-I can get a spillover this fiscal year as well, since EB2-row demand is pretty high, and there is no chance of spillover from EB1-I. Is there any chance of a good spillover for EB2-I this fiscal year or even in the year or years after that?

EB2-I approvals are declining at a rapid rate every year.
2008 --------- 14,806
2009 --------- 10,106
2010 --------- 19,961
2011 --------- 23,997
2012 --------- 19,726
2013 --------- 17,193
2014 --------- 23,527
2015 --------- 7,235
2016 --------- 3,930
2017 --------- 2,879

The only good part is that EB3-I got some spillover this year (6,641 approvals) which will help in catching up with EB2-I, but that’s nothing in comparison to spillover for EB1-I (13,081 approvals). Lucky folks! I guess if the EB3 row demand goes up like EB2 row, then basically neither EB2-I not EB3-I will get any spillover because of huge numbers in EB1-I.

Anyways my other question is it looks like that it will take another 2 years for EB3-I to catch EB2-I. It could take lesser time or even longer. With the EB2-I spillover completely dried up, how long do you think will it take to clear the massive numbers in 2009 as the bulk of numbers start after April 2009 (based on August PI again)? I ask that because without any spillovers for EB2-I just like in 2017 (and the rapid rate at which spillover has declined over last few years) it could take more than 4 years just for EB2-I 2009 to clear.

[iatiam]

Spillover for EB2-I has completely dried up, just 2879 approvals this year. Does this mean EB2-1 won’t go beyond mid-March 2009 (based on Aug pending inventory) for fiscal year 2018? It looks like all the spillovers are being completely diverted to EB1-I. I’m not sure if EB2-I can get a spillover this fiscal year as well, since EB2-row demand is pretty high, and there is no chance of spillover from EB1-I. Is there any chance of a good spillover for EB2-I this fiscal year or even in the year or years after that?

EB2-I approvals are declining at a rapid rate every year.
2008 --------- 14,806
2009 --------- 10,106
2010 --------- 19,961
2011 --------- 23,997
2012 --------- 19,726
2013 --------- 17,193
2014 --------- 23,527
2015 --------- 7,235
2016 --------- 3,930
2017 --------- 2,879

The only good part is that EB3-I got some spillover this year (6,641 approvals) which will help in catching up with EB2-I, but that’s nothing in comparison to spillover for EB1-I (13,081 approvals). Lucky folks! I guess if the EB3 row demand goes up like EB2 row, then basically neither EB2-I not EB3-I will get any spillover because of huge numbers in EB1-I.

Anyways my other question is it looks like that it will take another 2 years for EB3-I to catch EB2-I. It could take lesser time or even longer. With the EB2-I spillover completely dried up, how long do you think will it take to clear the massive numbers in 2009 as the bulk of numbers start after April 2009 (based on August PI again)? I ask that because without any spillovers for EB2-I just like in 2017 (and the rapid rate at which spillover has declined over last few years) it could take more than 4 years just for EB2-I 2009 to clear.

This is indeed frustrating. It's going to be a long slog for EB2I unless someone clamps down on the fake EB1C filing. Is there some data which shows how the EB1C filings have changed over the last year especially since the interview requirements were introduced last year.

[YTeleven]

FY2017 Visa Approvals

FY2017-EB Visa Approvals

- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,337 --- 2,559 --- 2,524 ----- 116 -- 7,567 --- 19,103
INDIA ---- 13,081 --- 2,879 --- 6,641 ----- 790 ---- 174 --- 23,565
MEXICO ---- 1,553 --- 1,411 --- 1,794 ----- 707 ----- 85 ---- 5,550
PHIL. ------- 136 --- 1,785 --- 6,675 ----- 228 ------ 0 ---- 8,824
ROW ------ 20,720 -- 31,327 -- 20,136 --- 8,114 -- 2,264 --- 82,561

TOTAL ---- 41,827 -- 39,961 -- 37,770 --- 9,955 - 10,090 -- 139,603

EB 2 Approvals

THEORETICAL SPILLOVER
EB1 ------------- 0
EB2-M ------- 1,392
EB2-P ------- 1,018
EB2-ROW ---- (2,499)
EB4 ------------- 0
EB5 ------------- 0
TOTAL --------- (89)


A potential 281 visas could be available to EB in FY2018.

Thank you Spec for the numbers.

Here is my take on these numbers.
These numbers have NOT surprised me but inefficiency in allocating 77.7K visas ONLY in place of 80K QUOTA to EB 3 & 2 categories put together, that’s a 2.3k wastage of visas OR misallocations. Otherwise these 2.2k visas would have gone to EB 2&3 India and would have saved 100s of families struggling with age out kids(so called H4 dreamer kids)
I used to say in my previous posts that EB2 I will not get any relief until the EB3 I catches up with EB2 I. This has become true.
I strongly believe that 90% to 100% of those 2,879 visas in EB2I might have gone to porters (leaving a zero for original EB2 I candidates) and on top of that there might be an increase in EB2 I inventory due to upward porting from EB3 I.
But it will not be too far anymore that this porting is going to become zero and eventually negative (downward from EB2I to EB3I).
This is the reason why I used to say that we have to see EB3-I and EB2-I as together going forward. We can safely expect a total of 10K+ visas to (EB2 - I PLUS EB3 - I) together each year from now on till we see any vertical spillover (if any) in far future (i.e. a minimum of 10k/80k to India in EB 2 and EB 3 categories put together).
Who will claim these 10k+ visas is an entirely different story and it depends on how actively EB2 I people will do downward porting to grab the available visas in EB3 I. A same scenario what we are seeing in EB2I will be seen in EB3I scenario i.e. Eb3I PDs will be stalled at 2009/2010 PDs till the corresponding PDs in EB2I completely exhausted by downward porting.

[SV2007]

Hi Spec / YTEleven - What would be your predictions for EB3I for this FY?

USCIS has not honored filing dates for the past 5 months. When do you anticipate FAD to be moved beyond Jul' 2007?

[YTeleven]

Hi Spec / YTEleven - What would be your predictions for EB3I for this FY?

USCIS has not honored filing dates for the past 5 months. When do you anticipate FAD to be moved beyond Jul' 2007?

Based on my previous post I’m expecting 10k visas this FY to EB3 & EB2 India put together but practically all these 10K visas will be consumed by EB3 India(both porters and non-porters) that will clear the EB3 India backlogs till DEC2007.
Next year (FY19) with the same number of Visas, EB3 & EB2 India PDs will equate somewhere around 2009 dates and we can see beginning of downward porting from EB2 India.

[Justmyself]

Based on my previous post I’m expecting 10k visas this FY to EB3 & EB2 India put together but practically all these 10K visas will be consumed by EB3 India(both porters and non-porters) that will clear the EB3 India backlogs till DEC2007.
Next year (FY19) with the same number of Visas, EB3 & EB2 India PDs will equate somewhere around 2009 dates and we can see beginning of downward porting from EB2 India.

As per Oct 2017 pending inventory, EB3 India has only about 6000 pending cases. Folks after Aug 2007 will have to attend the interview process which can delay the process. Since they havent moved the EB3I dates so far, does this indicate another year of visa wastage/diversion?

[YTeleven]

Others are using our data and analysis. Hope it should be for good cause.
Check this: https://twitter.com/anirb_das/status/954384463785549824

[dubnis]

Based on my previous post I’m expecting 10k visas this FY to EB3 & EB2 India put together but practically all these 10K visas will be consumed by EB3 India(both porters and non-porters) that will clear the EB3 India backlogs till DEC2007.
Next year (FY19) with the same number of Visas, EB3 & EB2 India PDs will equate somewhere around 2009 dates and we can see beginning of downward porting from EB2 India.
Hello YTeleven:
Your conclusions derived from analysis has been close to real progression taking place on EB3I front. Are you anticipating 10k visas to be assigned to EB3I and EB2I in FY2019 as well?
If this happens there are good chances of EB3I PD hovering around Q2 (Jan-Mar)-CY2019 and EB2I around Q4 (Oct-Dec)-CY2019 by Q2-FY2019. Please share your thoughts.

[redsox2009]

DEC 2017 Consular Processing Figures

DEC 2017 Consular Processing - Employment Classes

Class --- China --- India --- Mexico --- Philippines ---- ROW --- Total
EB1 --------287 -------24 -------- 9 ------------- 0 ---- 210 ----- 530
EB2 -------- 05 ------- 2 -------- 1 -------------43 ---- 189 ----- 240
EB3 ---------30 ------ 33 --------25 ----------- 584 ---- 445 -----1117
EB4 --------- 3 -------02 -------- 0 ------------- 2 ----- 77 ------ 84
EB5 ------- 780 ------ 35 -------- 7 ------------- 4 ---- 459 -----1285

Total -----1105 ------ 096 -------42 ----------- 633 ----1380 --- 3,256

[redsox2009]

Q1 2018 Consular Processing Figures



Class --- China --- India --- Mexico --- Philippines ---- ROW --- Total
EB1 --------918 ------112 --------15 ------------- 1 ---- 620 -----1666
EB2 -------- 19 -------15 -------- 7 -----------137 ---- 686 ----- 864
EB3 ---------57 ------ 65 --------59 -----------1083 ----1116 -----2380
EB4 --------- 7 -------25 -------- 0 -------------10 -----376 ------418
EB5 -------1996 ------ 77 --------12 ------------- 7 ----1022 -----3114

Total -----2997 ------294 -------93 -----------1238 ----3820 ---- 8442

[Spectator]

The Q1 FY2018 PERM Data has been released.

Selected Statistics (https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PerformanceData/2018/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2018_Q1.pdf)

PERM Received - 27,050 (This is a 20% increase on Q1 FY2017)
PERM Processed - 18,279 (This is a 26% decrease on Q1 FY2017)
Backlog - 47,717 (This an increase of 23% on the backlog at the end of FY2017)

[Spectator]

I noticed, that for the first time, the Full PERM Disclosure Data now also included data for pending cases as well.

e.g. still in analyst review, in audit, appeal etc.

That's a very nice increase in transparency.

[redsox2009]

The Q1 FY2018 PERM Data has been released.

Selected Statistics (https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PerformanceData/2018/PERM_Selected_Statistics_FY_2018_Q1.pdf)

PERM Received - 27,050 (This is a 20% increase on Q1 FY2017)
PERM Processed - 18,279 (This is a 26% decrease on Q1 FY2017)
Backlog - 47,717 (This an increase of 23% on the backlog at the end of FY2017)



My two cents

Prevailing Wage request came down starting 2017 Q4 and this Q1 it is down by 19% when compared with 2017 Q4. Hoping this will show effect on next PERM filings.

https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta.gov/pdf/PerformanceData/2018/PW_Selected%20Statistics_FY2018_Q1.pdf

I observed this trend, if prevailing wages are up, following Quarter, PERM filings will be up.

[Spectator]

Some snippets from:


Report from AILA DOS (Department of State) Liaison Committee on Predictions and the Transfer of Employment-Based I-485s to USCIS Field Offices.


Predictions and the Transfer of Employment-Based I-485s to USCIS Field Offices.

The new USCIS policy requiring transfer of employment-based I-485s to field offices for interview is expected to increase volatility in final action date movement in the employment-based categories. Members may see faster advancement of certain final action dates in the near term, though once the transition is complete and the USCIS adjudications process has stabilized, there may be slower movement or retrogression in certain categories.

Since the new policy is still in the early stages of implementation, it is not yet clear whether adjudications will be delayed. Delayed adjudications mean less visibility in demand for the State Department, which may result in more rapid forward movement. The timeliness of the sharing of demand data by USCIS may also be impacted, as data will need to be pulled from multiple offices, as opposed to a more centralized approach to adjudications and data collection in the past.

Not surprisingly, field office usage of visa numbers for the first quarter of the fiscal year is much higher than it was last fiscal year. However, the total number of visas used by USCIS as a whole during this period has decreased by several thousand as compared to FY2017. Charlie continues to coordinate with the CIS Ombudsman through this transition, which helps to temper the volatility. He plans to advance categories as needed to generate sufficient demand to ensure usage of all available visa numbers, while trying not to do so too rapidly to avoid retrogression or unavailability.



EB-1 India and EB-1 China.

The imposition of a final action date for EB-1 China and EB-1 India in late FY 2017 created pent up demand which was largely adjudicated in the first quarter of FY 2018. So far, this fiscal year, EB-1 India and EB-1 China have already used 7,000 and 4,500 visa numbers, respectively. Charlie expects these categories to remain current for the coming months, but the imposition of a final action date in the summer remains likely if the current rate of demand continues. This could, however, be delayed if the transition of I-485s to USCIS Field Offices results in slowed processing of EB-1 China and EB-1 India cases in the coming months.



EB-2 India.

Consistent with Charlie's predictions, EB-2 India will again advance by less than one month in February from November 22, 2008, to December 8, 2008. Given heavy demand, the February Visa Bulletin predicts modest forward movement for EB-2 India at a rate of "(u)p to two weeks."


EB-3 India.

The final action date for EB-3 India will advance one month from November 1, 2006, to December 1, 2006. The February Visa Bulletin predicts forward movement in this category at a pace of one to three months. Once the final action date advances beyond August 2007, Charlie will have very little visibility into demand. Once this occurs, there is the potential for rapid movement of the EB-3 India final action date to generate new demand. Members may see this happen next fiscal year or possibly even later this fiscal year.



MEMBER QUESTION:

The February Visa Bulletin appears to have been released later than usual. Is there a reason for the delay?

ANSWER:

Yes, the Visa Bulletin has been issued slightly later this month than in the past. Previously, once the ALDAC cable with the upcoming month's final action dates (the All Diplomatic and Consular Posts monthly cable regarding visa availability) was sent for clearance, the Visa Bulletin would automatically be released to the public. Recently, a separate process for the Visa Bulletin has been implemented, which has caused slight delays in publication.

[EB2-03252009]

Some snippets from:

Does this mean tht there will be SO from EB2-ROW to EB2-I? and if EB2-ROW is current for complete yr, will there be SO from EB2-M and EB2-P to EB2-I?

[rock581]

Some snippets from:

----> However, the total number of visas used by USCIS as a whole during this period has decreased by several thousand as compared to FY2017.

----> This could, however, be delayed if the transition of I-485s to USCIS Field Offices results in slowed processing of EB-1 China and EB-1 India cases in the coming months.

----> Once this occurs, there is the potential for rapid movement of the EB-3 India final action date to generate new demand. Members may see this happen next fiscal year or possibly even later this fiscal year.



The optimist in me thinks that these along with the PERM slowdown could mean a good year for EB2I and EB3I.

Good news is that USCIS could approve EB2I till May 2010 without an interview. So that will be the low hanging fruit.

[EB2-03252009]

read few posts where ppl are expecting SO coz of i-485 interview delays, would be great if we can get trackitt approvals this FY as we can calculate SO if any.

[Nishant_imt]

Gurus, I filed my i485 back in 2012 and since been waiting for GC. I changed jobs on AC21 in 2014 and now I am about to be laid off from that job. I found a new job but they are asking if my I485 is approved. If i am already on EAD for last so many years, does it mean my I 485 is pending or does it mean it got approved only then I received my EAD?

[Jagan01]

Gurus, I filed my i485 back in 2012 and since been waiting for GC. I changed jobs on AC21 in 2014 and now I am about to be laid off from that job. I found a new job but they are asking if my I485 is approved. If i am already on EAD for last so many years, does it mean my I 485 is pending or does it mean it got approved only then I received my EAD?Your I485 is pending.

[gcq]

Gurus, I filed my i485 back in 2012 and since been waiting for GC. I changed jobs on AC21 in 2014 and now I am about to be laid off from that job. I found a new job but they are asking if my I485 is approved. If i am already on EAD for last so many years, does it mean my I 485 is pending or does it mean it got approved only then I received my EAD?

A good answer to them would be "I don't need visa sponsorship".

[Nishant_imt]

A good answer to them would be "I don't need visa sponsorship".

I did exactly that. They kept on asking the question about approval of I 485 on 3 seperate occasions. And i told them, unintentionally, that its approved. I am thinking of telling them what exactly it is.

[rotikapdaaurgc]

Yes, it's best to give the correct information and not cause any confusion.

I have an EAD too since 2012, I have also got H-1B extensions regularly. This year my H-1B needs to be extended again and I'm wondering whether I should file for H-1B extension or just work based on EAD and forget about H1-B extensions altogether. I'm in a dilemma, the administration is rejecting or delaying too many extension requests lately.

Guys, please advise !

[Jagan01]

I did exactly that. They kept on asking the question about approval of I 485 on 3 seperate occasions. And i told them, unintentionally, that its approved. I am thinking of telling them what exactly it is.1. Many companies have to open purchase orders per candidate and the lawyers will file application for you only if purchase orders are open (meaning the company is going to pay them).
2. If you say that I485 is approved ,then it means that you will never need any kind of applications to be filed, and thus it saves money for the company
3. With no applications needed to be filed, there is no scope of rejection, and hence peace of mind for the company.
4. I believe stating that I485 is approved is wrong and you should not be stating anything like that. Whether you are on EAD (needs to be renewed every 2 years) or on H1 (renewed every 3 years), you will need to renew something in the near future.

[Jagan01]

Spec,

Any plans of updating the 2018 trackitt data ?

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2655-Trackitt-Comparison-FY2017-vs-FY2016-vs-FY2015-vs-FY2014-vs-FY2013-vs-FY2012

[altek001]

Hello Everyone,
Has you possibly noticed that most of recruiters seeking candidates for IT contract jobs are not accepting H-1b's?

Let me know if you all are sharing the same experience. Could this be due to Buy American hire American or the fear of hiring H-1b's during Trump Administration?

[qesehmk]

Interesting that a white guy - a labor leader - defends the rights of immigrants. I admire his integrity.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/top-labor-boss-says-trump-right-about-u-s-broken-n844191

[Suva2001]

Interesting that a white guy - a labor leader - defends the rights of immigrants. I admire his integrity.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/top-labor-boss-says-trump-right-about-u-s-broken-n844191

As far as I can remember he always supported EB based GCs. The reason is simple. Once these workers become GC holders then they would be part of "US" workers and hence they would be part of labor unions.
So he always supported GCs. On the other hand he is always against H-1B without GC application. Everything is related.

Thanks

[iatiam]

Hello Everyone,
Has you possibly noticed that most of recruiters seeking candidates for IT contract jobs are not accepting H-1b's?

Let me know if you all are sharing the same experience. Could this be due to Buy American hire American or the fear of hiring H-1b's during Trump Administration?
I work in the oil and gas industry and can confirm that there is significantly less interest (read almost no) in hiring H1Bs. But keep the following in mind,

1. The industry is struggling: jobs are scarce and H1Bs are only favored when they can't get USCs or GCs
2. H4EADs are being hired: It's an interesting trend when someone is laid off and then hired back in H4EAD.

Let me know IT related experience

Iatiam

[imdeng]

I can confirm from a different perspective - Recruiting events in Universities. We are having whole bunch of issues placing our International students. Situation has really been dire since 2008 - and have now completely cratered. Degree programs that have traditionally been majority international students are being looked at again to get more domestic students since recruiter interests in Internationals are very very low right now.


I work in the oil and gas industry and can confirm that there is significantly less interest (read almost no) in hiring H1Bs. But keep the following in mind,

1. The industry is struggling: jobs are scarce and H1Bs are only favored when they can't get USCs or GCs
2. H4EADs are being hired: It's an interesting trend when someone is laid off and then hired back in H4EAD.

Let me know IT related experience

Iatiam

[srimurthy]

I work in the oil and gas industry and can confirm that there is significantly less interest (read almost no) in hiring H1Bs. But keep the following in mind,

1. The industry is struggling: jobs are scarce and H1Bs are only favored when they can't get USCs or GCs
2. H4EADs are being hired: It's an interesting trend when someone is laid off and then hired back in H4EAD.

Let me know IT related experience

Iatiam

Interesting, but there is skepticism to hire H4EAD atleast in recent timeframes considering the rule making agenda set for reverting or stopping extensions for H4EAD, atleast in the big firms.

[qesehmk]

As far as I can remember he always supported EB based GCs. The reason is simple. Once these workers become GC holders then they would be part of "US" workers and hence they would be part of labor unions.
So he always supported GCs. On the other hand he is always against H-1B without GC application. Everything is related.

Thanks
I think his position is a bit more principled than that. He states ...

Right now when an immigrant comes into this country [to work], they don't have their green card, the employer has their green card. That gives that employer tremendous leverage. If they work in unsafe conditions and they start to complain about it, then they whack them, they get rid of them, and use the green card to bring in somebody else. The point is that the system is broken because workers have too little power.

This means he is thinking of workers in America rather than American workers. And I think that is a very principled position to take.

[billikoot]

I have worked exclusively in management consulting and currently on the chopping block. I have been “in the market” from September of last year. The response has been very limited to an H1 sponsorship. If there are 100 jobs only 1 may be willing to talk to you about sponsorship , but their internal process is verrry slow. I have turned to desi IT consultants and even there it’s on a vague response like can you work as an individual contributor or on contract based off my existing EAD.

Had a question for you all - if I have received 485 and 131 receipts (for kids who are on H4) can I assume they are now on AOS and I can safely move into EAD w/o the need for a continued H1 sponsorship? Will make things easier in the job search.
Thank you!!!

Ps. Sorry I must mention i have received EAD in 2012 but have not used it so far.

[gten20]

Does anyone have experience with Facebook not wanting to sponsor H1B? I was contacted by FB recruiter. When he found out that my current H1B expires end of this year, he said he will get back to me in a couple days as he has to make sure the window is big enough for the transfer to work. He contacted me couple days ago that the "window" (10 month) won't work and to contact him when my H1B gets renewed "OR" once I get Green Card. I wonder if it's the HR way of saying they are not doing H1B's??

[tenyearsgone]

I have worked exclusively in management consulting and currently on the chopping block. I have been “in the market” from September of last year. The response has been very limited to an H1 sponsorship. If there are 100 jobs only 1 may be willing to talk to you about sponsorship , but their internal process is verrry slow. I have turned to desi IT consultants and even there it’s on a vague response like can you work as an individual contributor or on contract based off my existing EAD.

Had a question for you all - if I have received 485 and 131 receipts (for kids who are on H4) can I assume they are now on AOS and I can safely move into EAD w/o the need for a continued H1 sponsorship? Will make things easier in the job search.
Thank you!!!

Ps. Sorry I must mention i have received EAD in 2012 but have not used it so far.

Yes, once I485 is applied for, they are on AOS. You can work on EAD reasonably safely. The only minor concern is the current 7-month timeline for EAD renewals and lack of premium processing or other options to expedite it. You have a 12-month window now for EAD extension to come through.

[tenyearsgone]

Does anyone have experience with Facebook not wanting to sponsor H1B? I was contacted by FB recruiter. When he found out that my current H1B expires end of this year, he said he will get back to me in a couple days as he has to make sure the window is big enough for the transfer to work. He contacted me couple days ago that the "window" (10 month) won't work and to contact him when my H1B gets renewed "OR" once I get Green Card. I wonder if it's the HR way of saying they are not doing H1B's??

Haven't heard of this before. It may be a one-off case where the recruiter doesn't understand things well or is just lazy. It doesn't matter how much "window" is remaining in your current H1B because a change of job gives a max 8-month window to switch to H1B with your new employer.

[gten20]

Haven't heard of this before. It may be a one-off case where the recruiter doesn't understand things well or is just lazy. It doesn't matter how much "window" is remaining in your current H1B because a change of job gives a max 8-month window to switch to H1B with your new employer.
I know, this doesn't sound right. AFAIK, a new employer can apply H1B for you as long as your current H1B has not yet expired on (or 60 days before, because of Obama rule) the day they file the application. But the recruiter verified this info with his HR/Legal team. Maybe he didn't ask the right question to HR or maybe Facebook is not doing H1B (very unlikely). But I don't want to be presumptuous, so I will contact him after my H1B is renewed.

I haven't heard of the 8 month max window before switching to new H1B?? Is that a window where you can start working for the new employer after the H1B has been filed till its approved?

[tenyearsgone]

I haven't heard of the 8 month max window before switching to new H1B?? Is that a window where you can start working for the new employer after the H1B has been filed till its approved?

Yes. AFAIK, once you change employers and the new employer applies for a cap-exempt H1B, you can work based on the receipt for up to 8 months (240 days) unless the petition is adjudicated earlier. This is the same for a H1B extension also.


Ofcourse, always consult an attorney for accurate and up-to-date information on these laws.

[redsox2009]

March Bulletin is out.

some good news. I think CO is holding and expecting sudden increase in demand. Movement was not moved aggressively as we thought.

China EB2 - 10 weeks
China EB3 - 8 weeks
China EB3 Other -4 weeks
China EB5 -- No Movement

EL Salvador EB4 -- NO Movement

India EB2 -- 1 week
India EB3 --- 1 Month

Mexico EB4 --- 1 week

Philippines EB3 -- 2 months

[imdeng]

Don't see any good news - its business as usual I guess.

[anuprab]

March Bulletin is out.

some good news. I think CO is holding and expecting sudden increase in demand. Movement was not moved aggressively as we thought.

China EB2 - 10 weeks
China EB3 - 8 weeks
China EB3 Other -4 weeks
China EB5 -- No Movement

EL Salvador EB4 -- NO Movement

India EB2 -- 1 week
India EB3 --- 1 Month

Mexico EB4 --- 1 week

Philippines EB3 -- 2 months




so frustrating to see the CO doesnt have the balls to move EB3 India dates more aggressively which can only mean EB3I again not getting its fair share of allocations at the end of the year!!!:mad:

[iatiam]

so frustrating to see the CO doesnt have the balls to move EB3 India dates more aggressively which can only mean EB3I again not getting its fair share of allocations at the end of the year!!!:mad:

Anuprab, I think we are barking at the wrong tree. Let me ask you this, why is USCIS not accepting the filing dates. Even if CO were to move the dates, it is upto USCIS to accept it or not. The status quo is gonna continue until this summer until more visas are available.

Iatiam

[altek001]

so frustrating to see the CO doesnt have the balls to move EB3 India dates more aggressively which can only mean EB3I again not getting its fair share of allocations at the end of the year!!!:mad:

The credit goes to Obama Administration who screwed us up with the introduction of new Visa bulletin format of Final and Application. This is the real reason dates are stagnant for EB India. Look into the pre 2015 visa bulletins to get an idea.

Not sure, if anyone noticed........ EB China A and F dates moved by 2 months as compared to 1 week for EB-India. Does Charlie Opp have a beef with EB India or he is bent on screwing us for revenue generated by h1?

[imdeng]

Oh Come On - dates are stagnant for EB-I because there are too many applicants in EB-I - and with enough EB-ROW applicants, there isn't as much (or any) spillover available as there used to be. EB-C is moving because there aren't as many applicants. If you see the PERM numbers compiled by Spec - or at permchecker.com, India applicants are more than half of all applicants. There are only two ways this will resolve - either there is a legislative fix (unlikely given the political climate) or we land into another recession that reduces the number of new filings significantly (like in 2008-2009).

One exception - EB3-I has been a victim of underallocation by several thousands in last two years.


The credit goes to Obama Administration who screwed us up with the introduction of new Visa bulletin format of Final and Application. This is the real reason dates are stagnant for EB India. Look into the pre 2015 visa bulletins to get an idea.

Not sure, if anyone noticed........ EB China A and F dates moved by 2 months as compared to 1 week for EB-India. Does Charlie Opp have a beef with EB India or he is bent on screwing us for revenue generated by h1?

[anuprab]

Anuprab, I think we are barking at the wrong tree. Let me ask you this, why is USCIS not accepting the filing dates. Even if CO were to move the dates, it is upto USCIS to accept it or not. The status quo is gonna continue until this summer until more visas are available.

Iatiam

why bother with filing dates at all when CO knows fully well that USCIS' head is stuck in the sand! Move the final dates and go ahead..its not that complicated

[redsox2009]

Jan Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
206
24
6
1
50
7
148
442


EB2
14
8
7
27
132
7
109
304


EB3
29
48
15
529
28
4
357
1010


EB4
2
16
1
5
0
0
132
156


EB5
505
41
6
0
30
100
168
850


Total
756
137
35
562
240
118
914
2762

[EB2-03252009]

looks like specs want us to keep guessing abt the SO if any by not updating trackitt approvals for this FY :):o

[knighthood83]

I thinks folks are grossly underestimating the impact of AOS interviews will have on the spill over. There are 120k Green cards given every year. If USCIS does not scale quickly I think it would be impossible to complete these interviews within the same fiscal year. According to DOS anyone who is filing 485 after March 2017 will need an interview , which means everyone who is filing new.

I see EB1, EB3 and EB2 ROW are going to see a huge amount of slow down and EB2I will be a big beneficiary of it since all the existing demand in EB2I is from 2010 who dont need interviews.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Guys, I have a question unrelated to Green Card. Just posting it here to get a quick reply.

Recently, me and my wife returned from India trip 3 weeks back. We had no issues with re-entry. I am on H1B and she is on H4. Our visas expire on 06/17/2019 but when we pulled our I-94s from CBP website last week, it showed a date of 07/27/2019 which is approximately 40 days after our visas expire.

As far as I know, this should not cause any problem since the I-94 duration is longer than visas and we will be filing for H1B and H4 extension anyways before the visas expire but I just wanted to know if I need to do anything at this point.

Thanks.

Please remove the question or move it to appropriate forum once it is answered.

[hope21]

Jonty, you dont need to do anything, it used to happen previously too (long back) when few folks had one year visa left but they used to get 3 year I-94 at times. Nothing to worry, you are good, just file your extension on time as you suggested.



Guys, I have a question unrelated to Green Card. Just posting it here to get a quick reply.

Recently, me and my wife returned from India trip 3 weeks back. We had no issues with re-entry. I am on H1B and she is on H4. Our visas expire on 06/17/2019 but when we pulled our I-94s from CBP website last week, it showed a date of 07/27/2019 which is approximately 40 days after our visas expire.

As far as I know, this should not cause any problem since the I-94 duration is longer than visas and we will be filing for H1B and H4 extension anyways before the visas expire but I just wanted to know if I need to do anything at this point.

Thanks.

Please remove the question or move it to appropriate forum once it is answered.

[imdeng]

Its not an issue Jonty. File your extension in time and you will be all good.

I once entered on AP which was expiring in a few months. I still got an I-94 that was valid for an year from entry - so several months beyond the AP expiration date. It was a non-issue.


Guys, I have a question unrelated to Green Card. Just posting it here to get a quick reply.

Recently, me and my wife returned from India trip 3 weeks back. We had no issues with re-entry. I am on H1B and she is on H4. Our visas expire on 06/17/2019 but when we pulled our I-94s from CBP website last week, it showed a date of 07/27/2019 which is approximately 40 days after our visas expire.

As far as I know, this should not cause any problem since the I-94 duration is longer than visas and we will be filing for H1B and H4 extension anyways before the visas expire but I just wanted to know if I need to do anything at this point.

Thanks.

Please remove the question or move it to appropriate forum once it is answered.

[imdeng]

If we see ROW approvals drying up and ROW inventory increasing then we can say something about it. I don't think either of these has happened yet. It would be great if your scenario plays out - but there is no evidence yet of this happening.


I thinks folks are grossly underestimating the impact of AOS interviews will have on the spill over. There are 120k Green cards given every year. If USCIS does not scale quickly I think it would be impossible to complete these interviews within the same fiscal year. According to DOS anyone who is filing 485 after March 2017 will need an interview , which means everyone who is filing new.

I see EB1, EB3 and EB2 ROW are going to see a huge amount of slow down and EB2I will be a big beneficiary of it since all the existing demand in EB2I is from 2010 who dont need interviews.

[knighthood83]

Where are you getting the ROW approvals from? Are you looking at pending inventory?

[jkseth]

Looking at the table above (I also looked at all the available data for last 6-8 months, and the number of EB1 India visa is under 50 every month), EB1 India would consume at most 1000 per year (which is well within its own quota of 2700/year). I do see higher number for EB1 China though.
Even if we are talking about 1000 EB1 overall every month, that is 12000/yr - which should still result into good spill over for EB2 India. Am I missing anything here or the numbers here do not add up.
I do remember reading articles (on other forums) claiming EB1 India consumption is beyond 30k/year in the recent past. But the numbers from above mentioned official link does not support that claim.

[knighthood83]

If we see ROW approvals drying up and ROW inventory increasing then we can say something about it. I don't think either of these has happened yet. It would be great if your scenario plays out - but there is no evidence yet of this happening.

Lets discount for a moment what the lawyers are saying and instead do the math. So each year EB category gets 120k Green cards. So 2018 got the same. Due to this new interview rule, EB1, EB2 ROW will be given away after an interview cause they are always current and anyone filing now will need an interview.

So lets divide 120 by 2 considering dependents. That is 60k primary. So USCIS will have to complete 60k interviews in 12 months do allocate these. That is like 5k interviews a month and 167 interviews/day including weekends.

That is ridiculously high number of interviews to complete. Also USCIS stated that everyone filing 485 after March 2017 will need an interview , all the EB2 india demand is till 2010 May or something like that. So those folks dont need interviews.

As a result the spill over and across will go directly to EB2 india since its path of least resistance. Also I see ppl comment here talking about filing dates. But why would they use filing dates?

They will have enough spill over to directly move Final action dates atelast till May 2010. Cause everyone filing after May2010 will need an interview.

So ppl in EB1 and EB2 ROW and EB3 will get screwed. EB3 cause they are close to clearing India backlog and new filers in 2007 will need an interview.

Folks in EB2 India till April/May will benifit. Again dont go based on what lawyer is saying. Do the math. 5k interviews a month is an impossible number to achieve

[srimurthy]

"02/26/2018: The Supreme Court of United States Refused Trump's Request to Review Lower's Courts Preliminary Injunctions Against Trump's March 5, 2018 Rescission of DREAMER Program!"

From the Federal District Courts rulings stating that the current administration does not have right or discretion in rescinding the program, can this be true from legal stand point because they did not have a similar thought when the DACA executive order was passed by the previous administration. I reason I am asking is that can be the same standing for H4 EAD too... in case the current administration things of rescinding the program and someone files a legal case against that move.

Someone with legal thoughts can pitch in... especially Kanmani who was always exceptional with the laws and rules going by the book.

[whereismygc]

Looking at the table above (I also looked at all the available data for last 6-8 months, and the number of EB1 India visa is under 50 every month), EB1 India would consume at most 1000 per year (which is well within its own quota of 2700/year). I do see higher number for EB1 China though.
Even if we are talking about 1000 EB1 overall every month, that is 12000/yr - which should still result into good spill over for EB2 India. Am I missing anything here or the numbers here do not add up.
I do remember reading articles (on other forums) claiming EB1 India consumption is beyond 30k/year in the recent past. But the numbers from above mentioned official link does not support that claim.

DoS data is never complete nor is qualified with good information on what it includes and excludes. The table above most likely only includes visas issued at consulates abroad. In other words ... this doesn't seem to include 485s.

[Spectator]

Lets discount for a moment what the lawyers are saying and instead do the math. So each year EB category gets 120k Green cards. So 2018 got the same. Due to this new interview rule, EB1, EB2 ROW will be given away after an interview cause they are always current and anyone filing now will need an interview.

So lets divide 120 by 2 considering dependents. That is 60k primary. So USCIS will have to complete 60k interviews in 12 months do allocate these. That is like 5k interviews a month and 167 interviews/day including weekends.

That is ridiculously high number of interviews to complete. Also USCIS stated that everyone filing 485 after March 2017 will need an interview , all the EB2 india demand is till 2010 May or something like that. So those folks dont need interviews.

As a result the spill over and across will go directly to EB2 india since its path of least resistance. Also I see ppl comment here talking about filing dates. But why would they use filing dates?

They will have enough spill over to directly move Final action dates atelast till May 2010. Cause everyone filing after May2010 will need an interview.

So ppl in EB1 and EB2 ROW and EB3 will get screwed. EB3 cause they are close to clearing India backlog and new filers in 2007 will need an interview.

Folks in EB2 India till April/May will benifit. Again dont go based on what lawyer is saying. Do the math. 5k interviews a month is an impossible number to achieve
knighthood83,

Nobody knows the impact of AOS interviews on processing times, even CO himself. I think we need to see how the approval numbers change as the FY progresses.

I'm not sure I am quite as bullish about the situation as you, although it clearly is going to lengthen processing times. Here's some factors why.

1) It seems USCIS are at least trying to process cases. Looking at Local Office timings, I've noticed naturalization interview times have doubled from 5 months to 10 months.
I'm sure much of the reason is to accommodate AOS interviews. Over 750,000 people naturalized in FY2016, each needing an interview.

It does appear that the interview requirement is adding at least an additional 3 months to the process.

2) A large number of cases in the existing backlog predate the March 2017 cutoff date.

EB1, in particular, already had an extremely large backlog of cases, many of which probably predate the March 2017 cutoff date. For this reason, I don't expect EB1 to provide any SO in FY2018.

3) EB2-ROW were retrogressed for the last 2 months of FY2017. In FY2018, they will have a full 12 months of approvals, so a lower rate can still achive quite high numbers.
With the current approval rate, they are on track to use all spare visas available in EB2. Clearly that can change during the remainder of the FY as the % of cases requiring an interview increases.
So far (for Trackitt approvals) 70% of EB2-ROW cases predate the cutoff date. More recently, it is around 60%.

4) Filing Dates have been accepted for CP cases. These aren't affected by the new interview requirement. There already seems to be some evidence that more CP cases may be approved in FY2018.

EB1 in FY2017 totalled 2,529 CP cases approved for the full FY. (China - 673)
EB1 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 2,108 CP cases approved (big increase) (China - 1,124)

EB2 in FY2017 totalled 3,223 CP cases approved for the full FY.
EB2 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 1,168 CP cases approved (about the same)

EB3 in FY2017 totalled 7,893 CP cases approved for the full FY.
EB3 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 3,390 CP cases approved (a fairly large increase)

5) THe largest user of EB3 visas is Philippines. The current FAD is retrogressed by more than a year and CO can advance it if necessary. The majority of EB3-P are CP cases.

Not directly related, but I think it is now too late for CO to advance EB3-I beyond July 2007 and expect cases to be approved in FY2018.
Even doing so in April would only allow 6 months for approval. All the new cases will need to undergo interview. That alone will likely take at least 3 months.
Realistically, USCIS is not going to adjudicate those cases in 3 months before sending the cases to NVC to organize the interview.

[Spectator]

Looking at the table above (I also looked at all the available data for last 6-8 months, and the number of EB1 India visa is under 50 every month), EB1 India would consume at most 1000 per year (which is well within its own quota of 2700/year). I do see higher number for EB1 China though.
Even if we are talking about 1000 EB1 overall every month, that is 12000/yr - which should still result into good spill over for EB2 India. Am I missing anything here or the numbers here do not add up.
I do remember reading articles (on other forums) claiming EB1 India consumption is beyond 30k/year in the recent past. But the numbers from above mentioned official link does not support that claim.
jkseth,

The figures in the table refer only to Consular Processed approvals.

For EB1 India, that is about 1% of total approvals (CP & AOS).

CO commented a few weeks ago that EB1-India had already used 7,000 EB1 visa in FY2018.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Jonty, you dont need to do anything, it used to happen previously too (long back) when few folks had one year visa left but they used to get 3 year I-94 at times. Nothing to worry, you are good, just file your extension on time as you suggested.

Thanks a lot for your reply.

[Jonty Rhodes]

Its not an issue Jonty. File your extension in time and you will be all good.

I once entered on AP which was expiring in a few months. I still got an I-94 that was valid for an year from entry - so several months beyond the AP expiration date. It was a non-issue.

Thanks a lot for your reply.

[tendlya]

Everyone, I have a quick question about EAD/AP combo card renewal. Please move this to appropriate thread once answered.

Can we apply for EAD/AP combo renewal 180 days before expiry now? I know it used to be 120 days but just came across this article which suggests 180 days. Can anyone please confirm?
https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2017/02/25/new-rules-establish-automatic-employment-authorization-based-on-pending-ead-renewal-application/

Thanks.

[jkseth]

Thanks Spec and WhereIsMyGC for providing info.
The numbers in the table seem reasonable for consular processing.

[Jagan01]

knighthood83,

Nobody knows the impact of AOS interviews on processing times, even CO himself. I think we need to see how the approval numbers change as the FY progresses.

I'm not sure I am quite as bullish about the situation as you, although it clearly is going to lengthen processing times. Here's some factors why.

1) It seems USCIS are at least trying to process cases. Looking at Local Office timings, I've noticed naturalization interview times have doubled from 5 months to 10 months.
I'm sure much of the reason is to accommodate AOS interviews. Over 750,000 people naturalized in FY2016, each needing an interview.

It does appear that the interview requirement is adding at least an additional 3 months to the process.

2) A large number of cases in the existing backlog predate the March 2017 cutoff date.

EB1, in particular, already had an extremely large backlog of cases, many of which probably predate the March 2017 cutoff date. For this reason, I don't expect EB1 to provide any SO in FY2018.

3) EB2-ROW were retrogressed for the last 2 months of FY2017. In FY2018, they will have a full 12 months of approvals, so a lower rate can still achive quite high numbers.
With the current approval rate, they are on track to use all spare visas available in EB2. Clearly that can change during the remainder of the FY as the % of cases requiring an interview increases.
So far (for Trackitt approvals) 70% of EB2-ROW cases predate the cutoff date. More recently, it is around 60%.

4) Filing Dates have been accepted for CP cases. These aren't affected by the new interview requirement. There already seems to be some evidence that more CP cases may be approved in FY2018.

EB1 in FY2017 totalled 2,529 CP cases approved for the full FY. (China - 673)
EB1 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 2,108 CP cases approved (big increase) (China - 1,124)

EB2 in FY2017 totalled 3,223 CP cases approved for the full FY.
EB2 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 1,168 CP cases approved (about the same)

EB3 in FY2017 totalled 7,893 CP cases approved for the full FY.
EB3 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 3,390 CP cases approved (a fairly large increase)

5) THe largest user of EB3 visas is Philippines. The current FAD is retrogressed by more than a year and CO can advance it if necessary. The majority of EB3-P are CP cases.

Not directly related, but I think it is now too late for CO to advance EB3-I beyond July 2007 and expect cases to be approved in FY2018.
Even doing so in April would only allow 6 months for approval. All the new cases will need to undergo interview. That alone will likely take at least 3 months.
Realistically, USCIS is not going to adjudicate those cases in 3 months before sending the cases to NVC to organize the interview.
Spec,

Thanks for the information. Could you share the trackitt approval numbers with all of us. I do not see the trackitt data being updated for this FY.

Just an update - I got RFE for my application.

[tenyearsgone]

Everyone, I have a quick question about EAD/AP combo card renewal. Please move this to appropriate thread once answered.

Can we apply for EAD/AP combo renewal 180 days before expiry now? I know it used to be 120 days but just came across this article which suggests 180 days. Can anyone please confirm?
https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2017/02/25/new-rules-establish-automatic-employment-authorization-based-on-pending-ead-renewal-application/

Thanks.

Yes, this was one of the changes that came in last year along with the extra 180-day work eligibility. In all, it gives 360 days time to get EAD renewed and current processing times can range up to 7-8 months as per Trackitt. Best to apply as early as possible.

[tendlya]

Yes, this was one of the changes that came in last year along with the extra 180-day work eligibility. In all, it gives 360 days time to get EAD renewed and current processing times can range up to 7-8 months as per Trackitt. Best to apply as early as possible.

Thanks. Mine and wife's expiring in Sep. So i guess I should be able to apply in March.

[pracar]

Sorry for posting in the wrong thread. Need some guidance quickly on H1 B renewal.
My passport expires in Jan 2020- so its too early to renew. The company attorney said that the H1B renewal can only be filed for the validity of the passport if it is less than 3 years from expiration. Anyone else heard about this change.
My H1B expires Sept. 2018. My wife is utilizing H4 EAD.
Thank you.

[hope21]

Spec, Good to see your post after a while, which is always logical :-). You, I and most of the folks here provide logical suggestions/explanations. Do you think that logic ever prevails in CO world when its related to EB3I /EB2I. Forget about April, I don't think he will do it before last quarter of this financial year (not even last quarter, he might do it in last months or so) and then he will again come up with some illogical explanation the same way as he did few times (when he stated - folks did not respond to the RFEs in time that's why those visas were given/adjusted somewhere else, I think that was crossing the heights of stupidity when he said that). Apologies if I am being sarcastic but unfortunately it is true that there is a certain bias against few categories (for number of different reasons) which can never be proven and can never be black/white and cannot be challenged because of the nature of it/the way it happens... lets leave it at that.

Coming back to the original topic, I really hope that I am wrong in predicting that he will not do it before later months in last quarter.




knighthood83,
Not directly related, but I think it is now too late for CO to advance EB3-I beyond July 2007 and expect cases to be approved in FY2018.
Even doing so in April would only allow 6 months for approval. All the new cases will need to undergo interview. That alone will likely take at least 3 months.
Realistically, USCIS is not going to adjudicate those cases in 3 months before sending the cases to NVC to organize the interview.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for the information. Could you share the trackitt approval numbers with all of us. I do not see the trackitt data being updated for this FY.

Just an update - I got RFE for my application.

Several people have asked this question.

At present, I don't intend to post the figures.

In large part, this is because it has become too difficult to do so.

Several months ago, it became impossible for me to stay logged in to the site for more than 30 seconds at a time. Even a small post can mean relogging in 5 or 6 times before I can finally post it.

It's the same regardless of the browser I use.

When I last updated the PERM figures for Q1, it took over an hour, even with a second tab entirely devoted to logging back in.

I really don't want that frustration for posts that need updating on a regular basis.

If I find a way to overcome that, or the site behaviour changes, I'll start posting.

PS This has taken 9 logins to post.

[qesehmk]

Spec - are you speaking about trackitt or qesehmk site?


Several people have asked this question.

At present, I don't intend to post the figures.

In large part, this is because it has become too difficult to do so.

Several months ago, it became impossible for me to stay logged in to the site for more than 30 seconds at a time. Even a small post can mean relogging in 5 or 6 times before I can finally post it.

It's the same regardless of the browser I use.

When I last updated the PERM figures for Q1, it took over an hour, even with a second tab entirely devoted to logging back in.

I really don't want that frustration for posts that need updating on a regular basis.

If I find a way to overcome that, or the site behaviour changes, I'll start posting.

PS This has taken 9 logins to post.

[Spectator]

Spec - are you speaking about trackitt or qesehmk site?
Q,

qesehmk.org

I don't have any problem on any other site.

In fact, today, sometimes I can't login at all until I close chrome and reopen it (never seen that before.

The general problem is also present using Firefox.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. I wonder if this is due to the patch upgrade we had recently.

But at this end - I access the site just like everybody and no issues. In fact things are lightening speed with me.

Lets see if anybody else has similar issues accessing qesehmk.org. Please let me know.

Meanwhile I will check your user settings.

Q,

qesehmk.org

I don't have any problem on any other site.

In fact, today, sometimes I can't login at all until I close chrome and reopen it (never seen that before.

The general problem is also present using Firefox.

[EB2-03252009]

Pending inventory out

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_January_2 018.pdf

[EB2-03252009]

Several people have asked this question.

At present, I don't intend to post the figures.

In large part, this is because it has become too difficult to do so.

Several months ago, it became impossible for me to stay logged in to the site for more than 30 seconds at a time. Even a small post can mean relogging in 5 or 6 times before I can finally post it.

It's the same regardless of the browser I use.

When I last updated the PERM figures for Q1, it took over an hour, even with a second tab entirely devoted to logging back in.

I really don't want that frustration for posts that need updating on a regular basis.

If I find a way to overcome that, or the site behaviour changes, I'll start posting.

PS This has taken 9 logins to post.

Hi Spec,

Thanks for the awesome work, trackitt approvals really help us to predict if there are any SOs.

Would you be able to update once a month atleast instead of daily updates? would be really helpful.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. I wonder if this is due to the patch upgrade we had recently.

But at this end - I access the site just like everybody and no issues. In fact things are lightening speed with me.

Lets see if anybody else has similar issues accessing qesehmk.org. Please let me know.

Meanwhile I will check your user settings.

Q,

Thanks.

It's been a problem for quite a long time - maybe 6 months or more. Certainly before the last patch.

[qesehmk]

Spec - sorry to hear that. Nothing seems to be wrong with your user settings. Let's see if others have similar issues.

p.s. - In case you are using a proxy , try accessing directly. Vbulletin's newer security features may be blocking proxy access.

pps - chatting w you after a long while :) Hello to you and all the old timers. I hope everybody is doing well.

Q,

Thanks.

It's been a problem for quite a long time - maybe 6 months or more. Certainly before the last patch.

[Spectator]

Spec - sorry to hear that. Nothing seems to be wrong with your user settings. Let's see if others have similar issues.

p.s. - In case you are using a proxy , try accessing directly. Vbulletin's newer security features may be blocking proxy access.

pps - chatting w you after a long while :) Hello to you and all the old timers. I hope everybody is doing well.

Q,

Thanks for taking the time to check.

I do use a proxy, so that is probably the problem.

Not using a proxy is not an option for me.

[qesehmk]

That's ok. Perhaps use another proxy - another device?

Nothing changed on the site except I upgraded vBulletin perhaps 2 weeks back or a month.

If I see other people complaining I can investigate further. Otherwise it could be an issue at the client side browser or machine.


Q,

Thanks for taking the time to check.

I do use a proxy, so that is probably the problem.

Not using a proxy is not an option for me.

[Spectator]

That's ok. Perhaps use another proxy - another device?

Nothing changed on the site except I upgraded vBulletin perhaps 2 weeks back or a month.

If I see other people complaining I can investigate further. Otherwise it could be an issue at the client side browser or machine.

Q,

I have investigated a bit further. It's definitely a proxy issue, since I can use a VPN without the problem occurring.

It's a shame that after 7 years it's now broken.

[qesehmk]

Glad it's resolved!


Q,

I have investigated a bit further. It's definitely a proxy issue, since I can use a VPN without the problem occurring.

It's a shame that after 7 years it's now broken.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Pending inventory out

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_January_2 018.pdf

First glance did not raise any red flags. Has anyone noticed anything ridiculous about this edition?

[suninphx]

First glance did not raise any red flags. Has anyone noticed anything ridiculous about this edition?


There are still ~7500 cases pending with PD 2008 for EB2I ( which is like 2.5 the allocated annual quota), no spill over expected (as of now) and still the FA date is at ~Dec 08?

Wondering ....

[HarepathekaIntezar]

There are still ~7500 cases pending with PD 2008 for EB2I ( which is like 2.5 the allocated annual quota), no spill over expected (as of now) and still the FA date is at ~Dec 08?
Wondering ....
You are right, this time they screwed up EB2 Numbers!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

If the Inventory as of Jan 2018 is accurate, here is my calculations and estimates:
a)EB3 Total Inventory = 17,200
b)Add trend filings in the next 4 months = 1000*4=4,000

Note: that USCIS takes at least 6 months to approve an EB Petition after filing.

Total Inventory that is available to USCIS to Approve before 30th September a+b = 21,200
Total Visa number available in the 8 months = (40,000/12)*8 = 26,300

ALL Pending EB3I will be cleared this year! If CO does not aggressively move EB3I Final Action dates (through June 2008), lot of EB3 Visa numbers will be wasted and be given to EB2

[canada]

My PD is EB-India August 28,2009

I missed the 2012 slot to have EAD due to delay in getting birth certificates

You guys are forecasting that the unused EB3 might go to EB2. What if the CO decides to hand it to EB1?

BTW, I am a medical professional- working in a Hospital-not IT

Thanks

[Spectator]

My PD is EB-India August 28,2009

I missed the 2012 slot to have EAD due to delay in getting birth certificates

You guys are forecasting that the unused EB3 might go to EB2. What if the CO decides to hand it to EB1?

BTW, I am a medical professional- working in a Hospital-not IT

Thanks

There is no mechanism within the law to allow unused EB3 visas to be used by either EB1 or EB2.

The law, INA 203, allows:

EB4/EB5 --> EB1
EB1 --> EB2 and
EB2 to EB3

What appears have happened previously, is that CO did not retrogress EB1 quickly enough, allowing EB1 to use more visas than their allocation.
Since both the late retrogression of EB1-China and EB1-India and the non retrogression of EB1 as a whole covered a period of one month worth of visa issuances, then it could be said to be accidental and unforeseen, even though technically unlawful.

In order to stay within the overall 140k limit, CO was forced to limit EB3 approvals to under their otherwise available allocation. This gives the illusion of SO from EB3 to EB1.

It's entirely possible this will be repeated. In fact, with AOS interviews potentially seriously affecting approval timelines, CO has even less visibility this FY.

On the other hand, for EB2 to benefit, CO would have to proactively move the EB2-India FAD forward several months more than the available EB2 visas alone could support.
CO might use any slowdown due to AOS interviews to do so within EB2, but it is a matter of scale and the ability for EB2-ROW to remain Current.

Beyond a certain point, it couldn't really be construed as "accidental". Since there is no law allowing it, personally, I don't think it will happen.

EB2-India can only absolutely rely on any SO from EB1 and SO within EB2.

Moving to a FAD of 01Sep09 to cover your PD would require at least 9k visas, in addition to those already approved in Q1.

[canada]

There is no mechanism within the law to allow unused EB3 visas to be used by either EB1 or EB2.

The law, INA 203, allows:

EB4/EB5 --> EB1
EB1 --> EB2 and
EB2 to EB3

What appears have happened previously, is that CO did not retrogress EB1 quickly enough, allowing EB1 to use more visas than their allocation.
Since both the late retrogression of EB1-China and EB1-India and the non retrogression of EB1 as a whole covered a period of one month worth of visa issuances, then it could be said to be accidental and unforeseen, even though technically unlawful.

In order to stay within the overall 140k limit, CO was forced to limit EB3 approvals to under their otherwise available allocation. This gives the illusion of SO from EB3 to EB1.

It's entirely possible this will be repeated. In fact, with AOS interviews potentially seriously affecting approval timelines, CO has even less visibility this FY.

On the other hand, for EB2 to benefit, CO would have to proactively move the EB2-India FAD forward several months more than the available EB2 visas alone could support.
CO might use any slowdown due to AOS interviews to do so within EB2, but it is a matter of scale and the ability for EB2-ROW to remain Current.

Beyond a certain point, it couldn't really be construed as "accidental". Since there is no law allowing it, personally, I don't think it will happen.

EB2-India can only absolutely rely on any SO from EB1 and SO within EB2.

Moving to a FAD of 01Sep09 to cover your PD would require at least 9k visas, in addition to those already approved in Q1.


Thanks Spectator

So, the spillover can only be horizontal from EB2 itself and there is no chance of spillover from EB1 looking at the way things are going on right now.

Based on your forecast when do you see my PD August 21, 2009 being current? I NOW know that without SO, my date won’t be current. The reason I ask is I follow Trackitt and the analysis is that my date would be current anywhere from March 2019- September 2019

Also these GC forecasting websites

http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator/default.aspx?n=reset

https://www.myprioritydate.com

[HarepathekaIntezar]

What appears have happened previously, is that CO did not retrogress EB1 quickly enough, allowing EB1 to use more visas than their allocation.
Since both the late retrogression of EB1-China and EB1-India and the non retrogression of EB1 as a whole covered a period of one month worth of visa issuances, then it could be said to be accidental and unforeseen, even though technically unlawful.


I don't get this, just because EB1 Final Action dates had been moved into the future beyond available numbers and not retrogressed soon enough and those EB1 folks were given visas beyond their legal quota logic, but the same was not applied to EB3 and stolen from them does not make any sense at all.

My question at this time is what should CO do to ensure that EB3 numbers don't get wasted or siphoned off to other categories, as it is obvious from the latest Inventory that EB3 demand is not sufficient to fill out the quota in FY2018.

[Spectator]

I've given a very simplified explanation. I think it is more nuanced than that.

It's very probable that EB1 had not used their full allocation as September 2017 started and CO may have thought any retrogression was unnecessary. If USCIS then processed more cases than expected and/or Consular returns were lower than average, then it is possible to overshoot.

It also depends on USCIS actually adjudicating EB3 cases of all types. If they either chose not to, or simply didn't have enough cases ready to be adjudicated then it is what it is. It's also possible Consular returns were higher than expected.

Too many possibles to know what actually happened.

What I will say is that USCIS is probably the villain here. They are sending out RFE requests too late and, by not allowing Filing Dates to be used, creating a situation where CO has no visibility of upcoming demand.

Now that the whole adjudication / interview process is so long, it's even more important to create a buffer and have cases preadjudicated and ready to use unexpected extra visas.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

What I will say is that USCIS is probably the villain here. They are sending out RFE requests too late and, by not allowing Filing Dates to be used, creating a situation where CO has no visibility of upcoming demand..

If that is the case, then CO can push Final Action dates to Jan 2008 and let USCIS deal with the fall out, which may not be much as they are already generating RFE for Aug 2007. At least it will give both USCIS and DOS a handle on the demand within 3 months of advancing the Dates.

[hope21]

Exactly, I agree with you 'Harepath..' and apologies to Spec as I rarely disagree with you as you are awesome in your expertise, calculation, knowledge in this area and I respect/admire you for that. But on this one, I dont agree with Spec. Consider from a lay man's perspective who is on EB3 waiting in queue for last 13/14 years for GC, his kids are suffering because of this miscalculation between CO/USCIS and these two will keep blaming each other. Truely speaking, I think its hand in gloves and I think its a crime to do this kind of miscalculation like they did last time. And I wont be surprised if they do it this time again and repeat the same mistake (I hope I am wrong on this). Why should always EB2/EB3I folks need to suffer for their mistake (at the expense of other visa categories who will current sooner or later this way or that way in the next few months anyway) when they are already lagging behind by years and waiting in queue quietly for last 10/15 years. I think its criminal to do this and they should do something to correct it, but unfortunately they are not answerable to anyone.... thats why I said I wont be surprised if they repeat the same mistake again (only next few months will tell).


If that is the case, then CO can push Final Action dates to Jan 2008 and let USCIS deal with the fall out, which may not be much as they are already generating RFE for Aug 2007. At least it will give both USCIS and DOS a handle on the demand within 3 months of advancing the Dates.

Spec..
What I will say is that USCIS is probably the villain here. They are sending out RFE requests too late and, by not allowing Filing Dates to be used, creating a situation where CO has no visibility of upcoming demand..

[qesehmk]

After looking at this drama for more than a decade, it seems DoS and USCIS work hand in glove together to deny every opportunity to EB-India.

The whole idea of filing dates is a creative idea to stop Indians from even filing and getting associated benefits e.g. portability. The only realistic hope for EB-India is abolition of country quota. Either through legislation or through a legal fight.

[srimurthy]

Consider from a lay man's perspective who is on EB3 waiting in queue for last 13/14 years for GC, his kids are suffering because of this miscalculation between CO/USCIS and these two will keep blaming each other. and waiting in queue quietly for last 10/15 years.
I guess CO and USCIS know that when we waited for so many years silently we will wait for few more year. Also now EB2 has reached the 10 year queue waiting for GCs and by next year they will be in that block for EADs and 485s too.

[YTeleven]

Here is my take on recent 485 inventory report.
The system is correcting itself, if I were CO I would move the EB3-I dates to mid 2008 and make both EB3-India & EB2-India current dates equall.
This is January's report today is March 5th I strongly believe the system might have already put the CO in tight spot by now.
If he don't act now he will end up wasting 5k+ EB3 visas this year which might cost him heavily.

[Spectator]

I'd had half expected CO to move the FAD for EB3-I before now, since USCIS will not accept Filing Dates, but I think that was probably rather naive of me.

I think it says something about the level of fear (even at fairly senior levels) among government workers under this administration.

I know people who work for federal agencies (not State or DHS) and this is the truth of the matter.

This administration is deeply anti-immigrant and DHS clearly has the upper hand versus DOS.

I don't expect much to happen until very late on, when it is too late anyway (it probably already is).

CO will work to ensure that the part he controls (Consular Processing) is as effective as possible. I don't think he has any power to persuade USCIS (DHS) to do their part.

[qesehmk]

Spec - whose idea it is to introduce Filing Date and what purpose it serves other than delaying people's ability to get AC21 benefits?

Why should backlogged folks believe that DHS is responsible for this new trick when the whole VB is controlled by DoS.

CO will work to ensure that the part he controls (Consular Processing) is as effective as possible. I don't think he has any power to persuade USCIS (DHS) to do their part.

[imdeng]

Wow Spec - well said. You are usually guarded in your comments - its quite something to see you call out the administration like this. You are absolutely right of course.

I am actually quite concerned that USCIS will go on to start denying cases on minor technicalities just so as to seem to align with administration's priorities.


I'd had half expected CO to move the FAD for EB3-I before now, since USCIS will not accept Filing Dates, but I think that was probably rather naive of me.

I think it says something about the level of fear (even at fairly senior levels) among government workers under this administration.

I know people who work for federal agencies (not State or DHS) and this is the truth of the matter.

This administration is deeply anti-immigrant and DHS clearly has the upper hand versus DOS.

I don't expect much to happen until very late on, when it is too late anyway (it probably already is).

CO will work to ensure that the part he controls (Consular Processing) is as effective as possible. I don't think he has any power to persuade USCIS (DHS) to do their part.

[imdeng]

Lets not get into arguments among ourselves on which part of the administration is most evil. I think CO is surely a little better behaved than DHS/USCIS - emphasis on little.


Spec - whose idea it is to introduce Filing Date and what purpose it serves other than delaying people's ability to get AC21 benefits?

Why should backlogged folks believe that DHS is responsible for this new trick when the whole VB is controlled by DoS.

[qesehmk]

Lets not get into arguments among ourselves on which part of the administration is most evil. I think CO is surely a little better behaved than DHS/USCIS - emphasis on little.
Not arguing.. just trying to get a sense where this whole idea of 485 filing dates came from and what is the rationale and utility other than preventing immigrants from filing 485 ASAP.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Here is my take on recent 485 inventory report.
The system is correcting itself, if I were CO I would move the EB3-I dates to mid 2008 and make both EB3-India & EB2-India current dates equall.
This is January's report today is March 5th I strongly believe the system might have already put the CO in tight spot by now.
If he don't act now he will end up wasting 5k+ EB3 visas this year which might cost him heavily.

Can you do us the favor of creating 2 of these charts - one for EB3 and one for EB2?

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B89CvsiXVO92NE5OT2lnaGdrSmM/edit

[Spectator]

Spec - whose idea it is to introduce Filing Date and what purpose it serves other than delaying people's ability to get AC21 benefits?

Why should backlogged folks believe that DHS is responsible for this new trick when the whole VB is controlled by DoS.
Q,

The salient point is that the WHOLE VB is not controlled by DOS any longer.

The new system didn't introduce any change in procedure for DOS, other than the Filing Dates are now published.

DOS always had a date which they gave to NVC to start collecting documents for Consular Processing applicants ahead of the PD becoming current. The idea was that when the PD did become current, all that was required was a consular interview, which could be scheduled immediately.

The aim of Filing Dates was to confer the same advantage to AOS applicants.

As you are aware, when DOS first published the Filings Dates, USCIS threw a hissy fit and forced a new Visa Bulletin with much earlier Filing Dates.

In addition, USCIS forced a change whereby USCIS could decide independently of DOS whether to honor the Filing Dates for AOS cases.

As envisioned, the new system should have allowed people to file an I-485 much earlier (other than the wild swings when inventory ran out) and avail themselves of all the AC21 benefits you allude to. When the PD became current, approvals should have been faster, since background checks could have been completed and the case preadjudicated. A big benefit was visibility of the upcoming demand and predictable movement of the Final Action Dates.

Now USCIS have total power over AOS applications, they appear to have decided to kill the concept of Filing Dates and the benefits they could potentially confer. Instead of the advantages, the situation is even worse - no predictability, no visibility of demand and a lessened ability to move Final Action Dates forward by large amounts. Remember, when USCIS fails to honor Filing Dates, they are explicitly saying:


When USCIS determines that there are more immigrant visas available for the fiscal year than there are known applicants for such visas, USCIS will state on its website that applicants may instead use the “Dates for Filing Visa Applications” charts in this Bulletin.

DOS only have power over the Final Action Dates. To make large Filing Date movements, DOS now has to imply that USCIS is lying. Moving those forward large amounts has consequences - consequences the concept of Filing Dates was supposed to make sure didn't happen.

[hope21]

I understand your perspective Spec. But when everyone knows this kind of foul play is happening (by USCIS), why is CO not playing the same card which USCIS is playing. I mean everyone knows CO/DOS can control Final Action Dates, why CO is not moving Final Action Dates far enough until 1 Jan 2018 for EB3I (Filing dates for EB3I which is useless at this time because they are not accepting new filings). By doing that, CO will be within his jurisdiction,and will not be crossing Filing date and will be within law. He will see the numbers/inventory until 1 Jan, 2018 and if needed, can retrogress the Final Action dates in next couple of months if demand is more than visas (as it used to happen previously when there were no Filing dates concept). If he is not doing that, dont you think he is helping USCIS indirectly and sitting in the same bucket as USCIS and thus helping USCIS in their motive (in screwing law abiding/innocent folks of EB3/EB2I, denying them any opportunity which can make their life just a little bit better), thanks.


Now USCIS have total power over AOS applications, they appear to have decided to kill the concept of Filing Dates and the benefits they could potentially confer. Instead of the advantages, the situation is even worse - no predictability, no visibility of demand and a lessened ability to move Final Action Dates forward by large amounts. Remember, when USCIS fails to honor Filing Dates, they are explicitly saying:


DOS only have power over the Final Action Dates. To make large Filing Date movements, DOS now has to imply that USCIS is lying. Moving those forward large amounts has consequences - consequences the concept of Filing Dates was supposed to make sure didn't happen.

[Spectator]

hope21,

Read my previous post about the DOS/DHS dynamics at present.

[GCdreamz]

Spec/qesehmk/imdeng, So we should be hope for
1. EB2I/EB3I - Dates movement in Q3 rather than in Q4 for full allocation and SO (to avoid mis allocation) right?
2. Cut off Date for EB1 as early as possible (in Q3).
3. How much spill over are you expecting this FY? I am expecting total of 9K visas to EB2I & EB3I.
4. Do you think Jan I485 inventory is correct? The numbers looked inconsistent from previous inventory data. If the numbers are correct and FD dates are cleared in FY then EB2 inventory of 7500 for 2008 will be cleared and will give hope for better dates movement in next FY or next next FY (sad but that sounds like hope).

Thanks!!!

[Spectator]

4. Do you think Jan I485 inventory is correct? The numbers looked inconsistent from previous inventory data.

The Inventory figures for EB2-I recently are extremely frustrating!

Here's the numbers for 2008 to 2010 PD for EB2-I over recent Inventory Reports.

Inventory --- 2008 ---- 2009 ---- 2010
Jan-18 ----- 7,557 --- 8,757 --- 1,754
Oct-17 ----- 8,258 --- 8,820 --- 1,763
Aug-17 ----- 1,998 -- 11,708 --- 4,725
Apr-17 ----- 7,839 --- 9,092 --- 1,770
Jan-17 ----- 2,267 -- 12,118 --- 4,748
Oct-16 ----- 2,279 -- 11,377 --- 4,787
Apr-16 ----- 2,225 -- 10,938 --- 4,728
Jan-16 ----- 2,650 -- 10,980 --- 4,761
Oct-15 ----- 2,380 -- 10,040 --- 4,768

All the way back to May 2012, the 2010 figure has been in high 4kish territory. A 2010 PD has never been current since April 2012.

It doesn't seem sensible that less than 2k applications for a PD in Jan-Apr 2010 were received in the 2 months the dates were current.

No month in 2009 has been current since October 2014.

Only in the last year have the figures fluctuated.

If 2008 truly still had >7k applications pending at the end of December 2017, then it doesn't seem possible for EB2-I to have a FAD of late 2008.

If you adjust the 2009 and 2010 figures up to the previous level, then 2008 has around 1.6k applications pending.

There were about 1k reductions in the EB2-I inventory in Q1 FY2018.

But, given the figures look wrong for 2008 - 2010, how trustworthy are any of the EB2-I figures in the current (or recent) inventory(s)?

I conclude the figures are extremely likely incorrect, but don't know what they should be with any certainty.

I think I'm just stating what most people believe.

[suninphx]

The Inventory figures for EB2-I recently are extremely frustrating!

Here's the numbers for 2008 to 2010 PD for EB2-I over recent Inventory Reports.

Inventory --- 2008 ---- 2009 ---- 2010
Jan-18 ----- 7,557 --- 8,757 --- 1,754
Oct-17 ----- 8,258 --- 8,820 --- 1,763
Aug-17 ----- 1,998 -- 11,708 --- 4,725
Apr-17 ----- 7,839 --- 9,092 --- 1,770
Jan-17 ----- 2,267 -- 12,118 --- 4,748
Oct-16 ----- 2,279 -- 11,377 --- 4,787
Apr-16 ----- 2,225 -- 10,938 --- 4,728
Jan-16 ----- 2,650 -- 10,980 --- 4,761
Oct-15 ----- 2,380 -- 10,040 --- 4,768

All the way back to May 2012, the 2010 figure has been in high 4kish territory. A 2010 PD has never been current since April 2012.

It doesn't seem sensible that less than 2k applications for a PD in Jan-Apr 2010 were received in the 2 months the dates were current.

No month in 2009 has been current since October 2014.

Only in the last year have the figures fluctuated.

If 2008 truly still had >7k applications pending at the end of December 2017, then it doesn't seem possible for EB2-I to have a FAD of late 2008.

If you adjust the 2009 and 2010 figures up to the previous level, then 2008 has around 1.6k applications pending.

There were about 1k reductions in the EB2-I inventory in Q1 FY2018.

But, given the figures look wrong for 2008 - 2010, how trustworthy are any of the EB2-I figures in the current (or recent) inventory(s)?

I conclude the figures are extremely likely incorrect, but don't know what they should be with any certainty.

I think I'm just stating what most people believe.

Thanks Spec!

[qesehmk]

Hi Spec

Thank you for a painstaking response.

The reality of backlogged people is that prior to the concept of "Filing Dates" the AOS candidates could file 485 ASAP and obtain AC21 benefits much sooner. Now they are robbed of that.

I respectfully disagree that VB is partially controlled by USCIS. USCIS did announce that they will not honor the Filing Dates. But they could only announce it when the mechanism appeared on the horizon. Earlier they had no basis to say such a thing.

If my memory is right, this change started under OBAMA administration. So while Trump admin is clearly anti-immigrant, I think when it comes to EB immigrants - there really isn't much difference because EB applicants do not wield political influence but their employers do. So it is much easier to maintain status quo or worsen it.

And that's exactly what we are seeing.


Q,

The salient point is that the WHOLE VB is not controlled by DOS any longer.

The new system didn't introduce any change in procedure for DOS, other than the Filing Dates are now published.

DOS always had a date which they gave to NVC to start collecting documents for Consular Processing applicants ahead of the PD becoming current. The idea was that when the PD did become current, all that was required was a consular interview, which could be scheduled immediately.

The aim of Filing Dates was to confer the same advantage to AOS applicants.

As you are aware, when DOS first published the Filings Dates, USCIS threw a hissy fit and forced a new Visa Bulletin with much earlier Filing Dates.

In addition, USCIS forced a change whereby USCIS could decide independently of DOS whether to honor the Filing Dates for AOS cases.

As envisioned, the new system should have allowed people to file an I-485 much earlier (other than the wild swings when inventory ran out) and avail themselves of all the AC21 benefits you allude to. When the PD became current, approvals should have been faster, since background checks could have been completed and the case preadjudicated. A big benefit was visibility of the upcoming demand and predictable movement of the Final Action Dates.

Now USCIS have total power over AOS applications, they appear to have decided to kill the concept of Filing Dates and the benefits they could potentially confer. Instead of the advantages, the situation is even worse - no predictability, no visibility of demand and a lessened ability to move Final Action Dates forward by large amounts. Remember, when USCIS fails to honor Filing Dates, they are explicitly saying:



DOS only have power over the Final Action Dates. To make large Filing Date movements, DOS now has to imply that USCIS is lying. Moving those forward large amounts has consequences - consequences the concept of Filing Dates was supposed to make sure didn't happen.

[geniusmag]

The Inventory figures for EB2-I recently are extremely frustrating!

Here's the numbers for 2008 to 2010 PD for EB2-I over recent Inventory Reports.

Inventory --- 2008 ---- 2009 ---- 2010
Jan-18 ----- 7,557 --- 8,757 --- 1,754
Oct-17 ----- 8,258 --- 8,820 --- 1,763
Aug-17 ----- 1,998 -- 11,708 --- 4,725
Apr-17 ----- 7,839 --- 9,092 --- 1,770
Jan-17 ----- 2,267 -- 12,118 --- 4,748
Oct-16 ----- 2,279 -- 11,377 --- 4,787
Apr-16 ----- 2,225 -- 10,938 --- 4,728
Jan-16 ----- 2,650 -- 10,980 --- 4,761
Oct-15 ----- 2,380 -- 10,040 --- 4,768

All the way back to May 2012, the 2010 figure has been in high 4kish territory. A 2010 PD has never been current since April 2012.

It doesn't seem sensible that less than 2k applications for a PD in Jan-Apr 2010 were received in the 2 months the dates were current.

No month in 2009 has been current since October 2014.

Only in the last year have the figures fluctuated.

If 2008 truly still had >7k applications pending at the end of December 2017, then it doesn't seem possible for EB2-I to have a FAD of late 2008.

If you adjust the 2009 and 2010 figures up to the previous level, then 2008 has around 1.6k applications pending.

There were about 1k reductions in the EB2-I inventory in Q1 FY2018.

But, given the figures look wrong for 2008 - 2010, how trustworthy are any of the EB2-I figures in the current (or recent) inventory(s)?

I conclude the figures are extremely likely incorrect, but don't know what they should be with any certainty.

I think I'm just stating what most people believe.


Why cannot we hold USCIS accountable to these figures ? How can they publish wrong figures every quarter and get away with it ?
Isn't there a Freedom of Information Act that one could use to obtain correct numbers or contact ombudsman ? Isn't it unbelievable that the whole army of AILA attorneys that deal with immigration cases choose to remain silent over such gross fudging of numbers ?

[GCdreamz]

If 2008 truly still had >7k applications pending at the end of December 2017, then it doesn't seem possible for EB2-I to have a FAD of late 2008.

If you adjust the 2009 and 2010 figures up to the previous level, then 2008 has around 1.6k applications pending.

There were about 1k reductions in the EB2-I inventory in Q1 FY2018.


Exactly, those are my thoughts too. If FAD of Dec 2008 is correct then the inventory data is incorrect. Hope Oct 2018 inventory data answers our questions and also has correct data (hope they don't mess up 2009 inventory).

Again if 2008 inventory data is incorrect and there is any SO it will be first step towards dates movement.

Hope less number of perm applications is an indication for SO.

[altek001]

Spec/QESEHMK/IMDENG/HOPE21,
I am in agreement USCIS is wholely controlling the AOS process by not letting use the filing dates, to cut off the H1b's from AC21 benefits. AILA, murthy and other major law firms are aware of this and keeping MUM.

Can we not use Mandamus/Writ to USCIS demanding supply and demand numbers used in visa allocation over the years?

[srimurthy]

Hi Spec

Thank you for a painstaking response.

The reality of backlogged people is that prior to the concept of "Filing Dates" the AOS candidates could file 485 ASAP and obtain AC21 benefits much sooner. Now they are robbed of that.

I respectfully disagree that VB is partially controlled by USCIS. USCIS did announce that they will not honor the Filing Dates. But they could only announce it when the mechanism appeared on the horizon. Earlier they had no basis to say such a thing.

If my memory is right, this change started under OBAMA administration. So while Trump admin is clearly anti-immigrant, I think when it comes to EB immigrants - there really isn't much difference because EB applicants do not wield political influence but their employers do. So it is much easier to maintain status quo or worsen it.

And that's exactly what we are seeing.

Was it not introduced in the first place to give more clarity and visibility on the number of applications and also allow back logged countries to file in advance and have the security of EAD and AC-21s.

[itsmusa]

Hi all, I am about to send my EAD/AP renewal and I noticed that EAD I-765 USCIS form expired on 2/28/2018. I have waited for a week, but it's not yet updated. I am wondering if I sent this form, my package would get rejected. Anyone having gone thru similar experience, please advise.

Since this is the most watched thread, I placed it here. Please move as required.

[Raj0687]

It almost sounds like forget about the new bills/law and be happy if we get the legitimate numbers that we suppose to get under the current law.

[altek001]

I called Congressman Kevin Yoder's office yesterday to get an update on H.R 392 on where it stands and the urgency of folks stuck in EB india catgeory. The secretary mentioned the plan is to include this bill in the large appropriations bill which is scheduled for vote this month end.

I request you all to call his office at (913) 621-0832 to raise this issue again. Please be courteous and professional as they very much understand the dire situation we are in. Thank you.

[qesehmk]

Was it not introduced in the first place to give more clarity and visibility on the number of applications and also allow back logged countries to file in advance and have the security of EAD and AC-21s.
I think that was the stated reason. But I think Spec said it very wisely (see below). I do not know if those are his words or the words of USCIS.


Moving those (Final Action Dates) forward large amounts has consequences - consequences the concept of Filing Dates was supposed to make sure didn't happen.

In other words USCIS' intention is to minimize AC21 benefits. If there are large movements then people will enjoy AC21 benefits much longer. Spec thinks USCIS has a strong anti-immigrant element while DoS being a global department is much more liberal. I think generally that's true. The only place where I tend to disagree (and perhaps its my own lack of intimate knowledge of how these departments work) is that I find it hard to believe that they have policy differences at departmental level. Seeing how under Trump DoS is suffering, i have started to think I may be wrong.

[vedu]

Hi Spec and other Gurus:

I have a question for you. My H-1B extension was approved recently, but I noticed a problem on my approval form. The expiry date on my newly attached I-94 is earlier than the expiry date mentioned on the form I-797A. The one on the I-797A is correct. So, the question is why these two dates are different? Is it a mistake? It has nothing to do with my passport expiry date either. Should I even bother about this discrepancy since my I-485 application is pending and I also have an EAD/AP? Please advise.

[itsmusa]

Hi all, I am about to send my EAD/AP renewal and I noticed that EAD I-765 USCIS form expired on 2/28/2018. I have waited for a week, but it's not yet updated. I am wondering if I sent this form, my package would get rejected. Anyone having gone thru similar experience, please advise.

Since this is the most watched thread, I placed it here. Please move as required.

Hi all - Please advise.

[itsmusa]

I am all set re: I-765 EAD.

I called USCIS 1-800-375-5283
option 1 - English
option 1 - request a form
option 2 - speak to rep

USCIS rep confirmed that I-765 EAD, though shows expired 02/28/2018, USCIS goes by the edition date - that is in the footer - 7/17/17 and that's the most up-to-date edition as of now. So, recommended me to send that form I-765 EAD.

Also, on USCIS website, on I-765 EAD page, under form edition section, it's clarified - 07/17/17. A new edition of this form is coming soon. In the meantime, you may file using the 07/17/17 edition. You can find the edition date at the bottom of the page on the form and instructions.

[suninphx]

I am all set re: I-765 EAD.

I called USCIS 1-800-375-5283
option 1 - English
option 1 - request a form
option 2 - speak to rep

USCIS rep confirmed that I-765 EAD, though shows expired 02/28/2018, USCIS goes by the edition date - that is in the footer - 7/17/17 and that's the most up-to-date edition as of now. So, recommended me to send that form I-765 EAD.

Also, on USCIS website, on I-765 EAD page, under form edition section, it's clarified - 07/17/17. A new edition of this form is coming soon. In the meantime, you may file using the 07/17/17 edition. You can find the edition date at the bottom of the page on the form and instructions.

Cool... Thanks for the info.

[bourne_ny]

Hi guys, I have a question. As we know, that EB3 row PI is very low, so there will definitely be a huge spillover this year. I know there is no law/rule that all the spillover will be diverted to EB1 but based on the past patterns they eventually benefit the most from that spillover. EB2-1 got no spillover this year (declining SO every year) and is the most backlogged category currently.

Since there is no visibility of dates after Aug 2007 for EB3-I, shouldn’t EB2-I folks start downgrading this year into EB3-I instead of waiting for EB3 to get past EB2l. I say that because I don’t want EB2 or EB3 to lose this year’s SO to EB1. That is there is no vertical spillover, from EB3 to EB1 or EB2. If we keep on waiting then based on historical data EB1 will use the entire SO again this year, as is also seen in P1 reduction of Jan 2018. But if both EB2 and EB3 have enough numbers then SO stays horizontal.

From all I have heard if you are in both EB2 and EB3, you can use any I-140, unless that’s not true. Is there a way to keep SO in EB2 and EB3 because by the time EB2 downgrades will happen, EB1C would’ve already used the SO again for this year from EB3? I just hope it could be on the money (at the right moment) and not lose another year. I would be happy if EB2 or EB3 uses that SO but not EB1. The only way to keep it horizontal is to have enough numbers in both EB2 and EB3 otherwise it goes to EB1 again. EB2 already has enough numbers but not EB3. I asked this question because EB3 P1 is very low this year (around 17K). Again I might be wrong about this.

[tenyearsgone]

Hi Spec and other Gurus:

I have a question for you. My H-1B extension was approved recently, but I noticed a problem on my approval form. The expiry date on my newly attached I-94 is earlier than the expiry date mentioned on the form I-797A. The one on the I-797A is correct. So, the question is why these two dates are different? Is it a mistake? It has nothing to do with my passport expiry date either. Should I even bother about this discrepancy since my I-485 application is pending and I also have an EAD/AP? Please advise.

My suggestion is to get it fixed. In general, if you are on H1B status, it is better to continue to be on it rather on switch to EAD/AP.

[vedu]

My suggestion is to get it fixed. In general, if you are on H1B status, it is better to continue to be on it rather on switch to EAD/AP.

TYG, thanks for your suggestion. Technically, I am on H1-B now since it has been renewed recently. My new I-94 will expire in early 2020 and I-797A will expire in late 2020. So, the question would be what happens when I-94 expires? Do I have to go out of the country and get the visa stamp/new I-94? Or can I ignore the I-94 because of pending I-485 status and continue to work on the H1B status beyond the I-94 expiry date without leaving the country?

I guess I am just hesitant to unnecessarily reopen the case to fix a small error in these uncertain times.

[tenyearsgone]

TYG, thanks for your suggestion. Technically, I am on H1-B now since it has been renewed recently. My new I-94 will expire in early 2020 and I-797A will expire in late 2020. Or can I ignore the I-94 because of pending I-485 status and continue to work on the H1B status beyond the I-94 expiry date without leaving the country?

It's hard to say. 2020 is a couple of years away... maybe you'll get your GC by then if you are lucky and this will all be moot. If your I-94 expires and you start working on EAD then any H1B extension that you apply for in late 2020 will come without a I-94. My understanding is that if your I-94 expires, you would have to switch to EAD unless you have applied for a H1B extension prior to such expiry.


So, the question would be what happens when I-94 expires? Do I have to go out of the country and get the visa stamp/new I-94?
I guess this would be one way to get the I94 fixed before expiry also.


I guess I am just hesitant to unnecessarily reopen the case to fix a small error in these uncertain times.
Totally hear you :(.

[Eagles_28]

Hi Folks - My PD is 29-Jan-2009. Any idea when my dates will become current?

[vedu]

... maybe you'll get your GC by then if you are lucky and this will all be moot.

Hope this comes true for all of us. We are so close, yet so far away:(.

[imdeng]

Who the hell knows in today's climate - but I would say that by the end of current FY (i.e by Sept) is strong possibility. I am assuming EB2I.

Hi Folks - My PD is 29-Jan-2009. Any idea when my dates will become current?

[Spectator]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-april-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

[EB3Iwaiting]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-april-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

This is amazing! 13 month movement to EB3I! Finally, JUSTICE! EB1 retrogressing means their quota is full and hopefully GCs won't be reallocated to them. EB3I moving all the way to Feb 08 means CO is building inventory. He expects good SO from EB3ROW and wants to allocate those to EB3I. He is giving enough time so that GCs remain in EB3 this year.

YT's prediction was correct! If not for the misallocation over the past years, this should have happened few years ago, just as he had predicted!

[texas_]

Guys what do you think of EB2 I moving forward this year?

[texas_]

Hope EB2 I would also move during this summer

[EB2-03252009]

how abt EB2I? will it move at the same snail pace of 1 week ??? any chances of SO to move it till April 2009?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

how abt EB2I? will it move at the same snail pace of 1 week ??? any chances of SO to move it till April 2009?

I would say so. Till EB21 and EB3I sync up. Only a EB2I and EB3I sync up makes sense. Any variance between the 2 Categories does not make sense.

[redsox2009]

I feel pity for China folks.

EB3 Date is greater than EB2 which is greater than EB1.

EB3 is 01Jun15
EB2 is 01Aug14
EB1 is 01Jan12

Pretty sure that will occur to Indian Folks.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

If the Inventory as of Jan 2018 is accurate, here is my calculations and estimates:
a)EB3 Total Inventory = 17,200
b)Add trend filings in the next 4 months = 1000*4=4,000

Note: that USCIS takes at least 6 months to approve an EB Petition after filing.

Total Inventory that is available to USCIS to Approve before 30th September a+b = 21,200
Total Visa number available in the 8 months = (40,000/12)*8 = 26,300

ALL Pending EB3I will be cleared this year! If CO does not aggressively move EB3I Final Action dates (through June 2008), lot of EB3 Visa numbers will be wasted and be given to EB2
Looks like this prediction came out true!!

[bluelabel]

With April bulletin , EB1 retrogression for china means EB3 China priority date is ahead of both EB2 China and EB1 China. EB3C is ahead of EB2C and EB2C is ahead of EB1 China. Logically this makes no sense.

[srimurthy]

With April bulletin , EB1 retrogression for china means EB3 China priority date is ahead of both EB2 China and EB1 China. EB3C is ahead of EB2C and EB2C is ahead of EB1 China. Logically this makes no sense.
I guess it makes complete sense when we look at the aspect that the qualifications and criteria are messed up for EB1 approvals.

[iatiam]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-april-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

This is indeed great news for EB3I. Hopefully more to come as well. My own hypothesis is that there is not much demand in 2008 for EB3 due to slow movement of EB3 prior to that as well as great recession. No numbers to prove it.

Congratulations to everyone!

Iatiam

[suninphx]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-april-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

Good to see nice forward movement of dates for EB3I. Congratulations to all those who have become current after a decade of wait.

[GCdreamz]

Spec/qesehmk/imdeng, So we should be hope for
1. EB2I/EB3I - Dates movement in Q3 rather than in Q4 for full allocation and SO (to avoid mis allocation) right?
2. Cut off Date for EB1 as early as possible (in Q3).
3. How much spill over are you expecting this FY? I am expecting total of 9K visas to EB2I & EB3I.
4. Do you think Jan I485 inventory is correct? The numbers looked inconsistent from previous inventory data. If the numbers are correct and FD dates are cleared in FY then EB2 inventory of 7500 for 2008 will be cleared and will give hope for better dates movement in next FY or next next FY (sad but that sounds like hope).

Thanks!!!

Happy to See First & Second points becoming True. Hope to see SO & Dates movement for EB2 too. I am expecting EB2I & EB3I to have same dates by end of FY18

[GCdreamz]

This is indeed great news for EB3I. Hopefully more to come as well. My own hypothesis is that there is not much demand in 2008 for EB3 due to slow movement of EB3 prior to that as well as great recession. No numbers to prove it.

Congratulations to everyone!

Iatiam

Yes, EB3I to EB2I upgrades in 2008 + Recession may lead to less demand in EB3I and if there is good SO then Dates might advance to Feb 09 or Same as EB2I.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-april-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

Looks like CO used the 'visibility' provided by the USCIS cooked up '2018 January Pending Inventory'

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Green%20Card/Green%20Card%20Through%20a%20Job/Employment-based_I-485_pending_at_the_Service_Centers_as_of_January_2 018.pdf

in prescribing the dates for April2018 VB! Hopefully the USCIS can put in place an accurate calculation of the pending inventory. Given its record, USCIS is more likely to suspend the Pending Inventory Report entirely rather than enhance the accuracy of that report.

[imdeng]

Finally - some rational actions by CO! Some long awaiting good news for EB3-I folks.

[YTeleven]

here is my take on recent 485 inventory report.
The system is correcting itself, if i were co i would move the eb3-i dates to mid 2008 and make both eb3-india & eb2-india current dates equall.
This is january's report today is march 5th i strongly believe the system might have already put the co in tight spot by now.
If he don't act now he will end up wasting 5k+ eb3 visas this year which might cost him heavily.

Finally!!!

[rock581]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-april-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

Another good thing that no one is talking about is the steady march of EB3P to Current. Once EB3P goes current EB3I will get a much bigger chunk of GC's.

[altek001]

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-april-2018.html

EB2-I -- 22DEC08
EB3-I -- 01FEB08

EB1 China and India retrogress to 01JAN12 (effectively Unavailable)

I am thinking the recent Shakeup at state department (firing of rex tillerson) may also have prompted officials to do their job well. Just my thoughts; could be wrong.

[newyorker123]

Have a question: In the visa bulletin, the following is mentioned regarding EB1 retrogression to Jan 2012.

"Should the level of worldwide demand for E1 numbers decline, there could be some future movement in this date prior to the end of the fiscal year."

Is there any chance of this happening ? Move forward from Jan 2012 to a slightly later date ? Or is this all set until October 1st for sure ? Any idea, Gurus ?

EB1C is totally messing up EB1A/B folks.

[hope21]

Thanks for the reply Spec. When you had said consequences of bringing EB3I to 2008 Jan , then I had a follow up question (why CO is not doing in a planned manner like moving dates by 2/3 months for EB3I each month till it catches up Jan 2008, the Filing date . I chose not to ask you that because the discussion was not going anywhere. We had different point of views, but I liked our healthy disagreement.

Well, that's past now, Mr. CO has proved me wrong (which I love though). My gut feeling was he will do the same mistake as he did last time on purpose. Good that he acted in a rationale manner this time. Congrats to all the EB3I folks who are current.

On a lighter note - I think Mr. CO reads our posts and finally he got convinced and moved dates. On an even more lighter note - I think Spec, you are an insider/like secret services working in CO's team who actually is very logical n efficient in number crunching and gives CO the true picture of everything/our pain points/difficulties, its just that CO listens to you only sometimes..... ha ha.... my sense of humor might not be that good, just wrote it on a lighter side.

Anyway, Congrats again to EB3I folks and good luck to EB2I folks. At least we are seeing some light at the end of tunnel now.




hope21,

Read my previous post about the DOS/DHS dynamics at present.

[imdeng]

Last time CO did inventory building (in 2012, for EB2I), he did it in several stages and went way further than what was strictly necessary for immediate needs. That allowed a whole bunch of us to file 485 and get EADs - made for a much simpler (though so so long!) wait since 2012.

Lets hope that CO will continue with the same approach and moves EB3I further in coming months. In any case, density in EB3I in 2008/2009 should be pretty sparse given all the porting and 2008/09 recession - so might not take too much of a stretch to get EB3I to end of 2009 (just for 485/EAD, nor expecting approvals so far down).

[iatiam]

Last time CO did inventory building (in 2012, for EB2I), he did it in several stages and went way further than what was strictly necessary for immediate needs. That allowed a whole bunch of us to file 485 and get EADs - made for a much simpler (though so so long!) wait since 2012.

Lets hope that CO will continue with the same approach and moves EB3I further in coming months. In any case, density in EB3I in 2008/2009 should be pretty sparse given all the porting and 2008/09 recession - so might not take too much of a stretch to get EB3I to end of 2009 (just for 485/EAD, nor expecting approvals so far down).

Let's drink to that!

Looking at Permchecker.com, the following are the approved PERM numbers:

2008:39K
2009: 38K
2010: 78K
2011: 51K
2012: 57K
2013: 32K
2014: 70K
2015: 79K
2016: 113K
2017: 79K

If this scenario happens, it will open up the possibility of reverse porting from EB2I to EB3I and this may lead to very interesting visa movements.

Iatiam

[anuprab]

so happy for all EB3I folks. Hope the wait ends soon.

[anuprab]

EB3Iwaiting, your wait is probably going to be over soon.

[imdeng]

Perm numbers from 2014 onwards (and 2010) are staggeringly large. Only saving grade is that ~60% of them are EB-IC so it does not affect spillover.

EB2I to EB3I reverse porting is going to happen pretty soon. It seems likely for PD >= 2010.


Let's drink to that!

Looking at Permchecker.com, the following are the approved PERM numbers:

2008:39K
2009: 38K
2010: 78K
2011: 51K
2012: 57K
2013: 32K
2014: 70K
2015: 79K
2016: 113K
2017: 79K

If this scenario happens, it will open up the possibility of reverse porting from EB2I to EB3I and this may lead to very interesting visa movements.

Iatiam

[dubnis]

Let's drink to that!

Looking at Permchecker.com, the following are the approved PERM numbers:

2008:39K
2009: 38K
2010: 78K
2011: 51K
2012: 57K
2013: 32K
2014: 70K
2015: 79K
2016: 113K
2017: 79K

If this scenario happens, it will open up the possibility of reverse porting from EB2I to EB3I and this may lead to very interesting visa movements.

Iatiam

Amigo!
Are these PERM filing cases for all EB categories or just combination of EB2/EB3 worldwide!?

[imdeng]

EB1s don't do PERM - so its EB2/3.

Amigo!
Are these PERM filing cases for all EB categories or just combination of EB2/EB3 worldwide!?

[newyorker123]

Have a question: In the visa bulletin, the following is mentioned regarding EB1 retrogression to Jan 2012.

"Should the level of worldwide demand for E1 numbers decline, there could be some future movement in this date prior to the end of the fiscal year."

Is there any chance of this happening ? Move forward from Jan 2012 to a slightly later date ? Or is this all set until October 1st for sure ? Any idea, Gurus ?

EB1C is totally messing up EB1A/B folks.



Any thoughts on this ? Any chance of the dates for EB1 moving little forward before October 1st ? Was going to file EB1A/B in next 1-2 months, with concurrent I485. Now need to re-plan.

[hope21]

Newyorker, No one can answer that for sure. But if I can read between the lines on what CO stated, I think there is high probability (my gut feeling, but no one knows whether that will happen or when that will happen for sure, thanks).

[rock581]

Last time CO did inventory building (in 2012, for EB2I), he did it in several stages and went way further than what was strictly necessary for immediate needs. That allowed a whole bunch of us to file 485 and get EADs - made for a much simpler (though so so long!) wait since 2012.

Lets hope that CO will continue with the same approach and moves EB3I further in coming months. In any case, density in EB3I in 2008/2009 should be pretty sparse given all the porting and 2008/09 recession - so might not take too much of a stretch to get EB3I to end of 2009 (just for 485/EAD, nor expecting approvals so far down).

I agree with you imdeng. The numbers also point to the same.

For EB3 GC's only, lets assume USCIS issued 10K quarterly quota in Q1 and we have 17K pending inventory as of Jan. So, USCIS can at best issue 27K GC's for EB3. Lets assume 30K to get to a round number. Now CO needs to find 10K of EB3I by moving the dates.

From July'07 to Feb'08, we may have a max of 3K EB3I applicants that will apply in April. So, if CO and USCIS are talking early April, CO will have to go much deeper to utilize the 7-10K extra GC's.

Is there a flaw somewhere in my calculation?

[bluelabel]

Any thoughts on this ? Any chance of the dates for EB1 moving little forward before October 1st ? Was going to file EB1A/B in next 1-2 months, with concurrent I485. Now need to re-plan.

It may move a year or 2 if there are any otherwise unused visas left in EB1 row(and/or in EB3 if CO cannot allocate all unused visas to EB3I) but highly unlikely that EB1I going to become 'C ' before Oct 1st 2018. However USCIS might accept dates for filing at least one month before Oct 1st, which may allow you to file I-485.

[Immigo]

Any thoughts on this ? Any chance of the dates for EB1 moving little forward before October 1st ? Was going to file EB1A/B in next 1-2 months, with concurrent I485. Now need to re-plan.

If you can expedite it and file before March 31st i.e. before the April bulletin takes effect, you will be able to file concurrently. Good luck!

[newyorker123]

I have an EB2 priority date of 2012, so a few months move will also help - lets see. Cannot expedite it by the end of this month. Will not be able to do a good job.

[newyorker123]

If you can expedite it and file before March 31st i.e. before the April bulletin takes effect, you will be able to file concurrently. Good luck!

I have a follow-up question. Apart from getting an earlier EAD/AP, are there any more advantages of filing hurriedly before March 31st ? As I plan to remain with my H1, an earlier EAD/AP is of not immense use.
In any case they will not adjudicate the I485 before whenever my priority date becomes current. Pls correct me if I am wrong.
My priority date is in 2012(missed it by few months), and I am planning to file EB1A I140/I485 concurrently.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

If that is the case, then CO can push Final Action dates to Jan 2008 and let USCIS deal with the fall out, which may not be much as they are already generating RFE for Aug 2007. At least it will give both USCIS and DOS a handle on the demand within 3 months of advancing the Dates.


If the Inventory as of Jan 2018 is accurate, here is my calculations and estimates:
a)EB3 Total Inventory = 17,200
b)Add trend filings in the next 4 months = 1000*4=4,000

Note: that USCIS takes at least 6 months to approve an EB Petition after filing.

Total Inventory that is available to USCIS to Approve before 30th September a+b = 21,200
Total Visa number available in the 8 months = (40,000/12)*8 = 26,300

ALL Pending EB3I will be cleared this year! If CO does not aggressively move EB3I Final Action dates (through June 2008), lot of EB3 Visa numbers will be wasted and be given to EB2

Based on Pending Inventory Report again, I have estimated the new EB3I demand to be around 1,800 (300/Month*6 Months). I don't think that is sufficient to soak up the EB3 numbers given the very anaemic Demand from ROW. I still think CO should push the EB3I Date to Dec 31, 2008 in May VB to generate enough demand to absorb the current years visas. Maybe even that may not be sufficient.

@spectator, what do you say?

[imdeng]

Based on Pending Inventory Report again, I have estimated the new EB3I demand to be around 1,800 (300/Month*6 Months). I don't think that is sufficient to soak up the EB3 numbers given the very anaemic Demand from ROW. I still think CO should push the EB3I Date to Dec 31, 2008 in May VB to generate enough demand to absorb the current years visas. Maybe even that may not be sufficient.

@spectator, what do you say?

If that is the case then EB2I folks should be downgrading to EB3I right now :-)

Next month: EB2I and EB3I both at 01 JAN 2009.
Month after that: EB2I 15 JAN 2009, EB3I 01 DEC 2009 -> Cue for everyone to start downgrading :-)

[iatiam]

If that is the case then EB2I folks should be downgrading to EB3I right now :-)

Next month: EB2I and EB3I both at 01 JAN 2009.
Month after that: EB2I 15 JAN 2009, EB3I 01 DEC 2009 -> Cue for everyone to start downgrading :-)

Does anyone know how the downgrade process is done? With an August 2009 PD, I am seriously considering this option. Also, what about EB4 and EB5? Any chance they will give spillover this year.

Iatiam

[imdeng]

Given the EB1 is not C as a category, they are likely to absorb any spillover from EB4/5.

Porting in either direction is essentially a new application - my impression is that it needs a new PERM, I140 - but with older PD. It would take more than a year I would imagine for the process to wrap.


Does anyone know how the downgrade process is done? With an August 2009 PD, I am seriously considering this option. Also, what about EB4 and EB5? Any chance they will give spillover this year.

Iatiam

[iatiam]

Given the EB1 is not C as a category, they are likely to absorb any spillover from EB4/5.

Porting in either direction is essentially a new application - my impression is that it needs a new PERM, I140 - but with older PD. It would take more than a year I would imagine for the process to wrap.

This is the first link when you Google. It says PERM is not required,
http://nairlaw.com/blog/posts/12

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Does anyone know how the downgrade process is done? With an August 2009 PD, I am seriously considering this option. Also, what about EB4 and EB5? Any chance they will give spillover this year.

Iatiam

I followed the Chinese forums (with terrible translation) when the China downgrading phenomenon first started.

From memory:

1) Most Chinese already had an EB2 I-140 approved with the same company they were working for.

2) The company used the original PERM certification used for the EB2 I-140 approval to apply for an I-140 under EB3.

3) A bit fuzzy on this, but I don't think the new I-140 can be Premium Processed, because the original PERM certification is not attached. You'd need to check if this has changed.

4) A request to Interfile the basis of an existing I-485 from EB2 to EB3 must be made in writing to USCIS. It can only be made when the PD for the new category is current.

5) An I-485 can only be attached to a single I-140 at a time (EB2 or EB3 in this case).

6) If you wanted to switch back to EB2, then a new interfiling letter to USCIS requesting this would be required.

7) There's no concept of the I-485 being approved on the first category to become current.
Many Chinese have previously bounced between EB2 and EB3, chasing the best Final Action Date.

[EB2-03252009]

Specs,

do you think there will be SOs for EB2-I this year?

[GCdreamz]

Based on Pending Inventory Report again, I have estimated the new EB3I demand to be around 1,800 (300/Month*6 Months). I don't think that is sufficient to soak up the EB3 numbers given the very anaemic Demand from ROW. I still think CO should push the EB3I Date to Dec 31, 2008 in May VB to generate enough demand to absorb the current years visas. Maybe even that may not be sufficient.

@spectator, what do you say?

Yes, I also think EB3 dates will move to Dec 2008 (around EB2 date) since most of the folks in EB3 in 2008 PD already upgraded and demand might be less. EB3 movement to Dec 2008

In 2017, EB3I got 6600 visas and could have got another 2200 if they were allocated correctly.
EB3I Inventory per Oct 2017 is 6,250 + 1000 (Sep-Dec 2007 estimate 250/month) which roughly reflects the 6600 visa allocated in FY2017. I think April VB dates movement is based on previous FY allocation (maybe 2200 misallocation number is also considered).

With fewer PERM applications this year leading to less EB3 Row demand or less demand in EB3I between Sep 2007 to Dec 2008, I hope we will have further dates movement.

I am expecting further significant dates movement in June/July bulletin.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Yes, I also think EB3 dates will move to Dec 2008 (around EB2 date) since most of the folks in EB3 in 2008 PD already upgraded and demand might be less. I am expecting further significant dates movement in June/July bulletin.

If the significant dates movement is to utilize 2018 numbers, then that has to happen in May VB. If it happens in June/July VB, there won't be enough time for USCIS to process those applications before Sept 30, 2018.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Specs,

do you think there will be SOs for EB2-I this year?

NO. But what could happen is something similar to Chinese Dates - EB3 being ahead of EB2. If anyone has already filed for AOS, then they could take a flier on Interfile and downgrade.

[derekjbj]

Let's drink to that!

Looking at Permchecker.com, the following are the approved PERM numbers:

2008:39K
2009: 38K
2010: 78K
2011: 51K
2012: 57K
2013: 32K
2014: 70K
2015: 79K
2016: 113K
2017: 79K

If this scenario happens, it will open up the possibility of reverse porting from EB2I to EB3I and this may lead to very interesting visa movements.

Iatiam

The figures you have quoted from permchecker.com are for ALL countries. For INDIA only, the following are the numbers. Don't know which is relevant here(total or certified). I think it should be certified. These are EB2+EB3

total; certified
2008: 15768; 7197

2009: 16968; 6403

2010: 37673 ; 14872

[Spectator]

If you are going to use PERM certifications as a starting point to gauge demand, then FY (or CY) certifications by OFLC are not that useful IMO. They contain certifications from several PD calendar years.

Certifications for a PD CY occur over several FY of certifications.

For India, based on PD derived from A-number, the certified figures are:


India --- Certified
CY2007 --- 23,098
CY2008 --- 23,746
CY2009 --- 16,672
CY2010 --- 22,361
CY2011 --- 30,024
CY2012 --- 37,260
CY2013 --- 36,159
CY2014 --- 41,336
CY2015 --- 45,535
CY2016 --- 49,028

For CY2010, January to July are relatively light, while August to December have much higher figures.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

If you are going to use PERM certifications as a starting point to gauge demand, then FY (or CY) certifications by OFLC are not that useful IMO. They contain certifications from several PD calendar years.

Certifications for a PD CY occur over several FY of certifications.

For India, based on PD derived from A-number, the certified figures are:


India --- Certified
CY2007 --- 23,098
CY2008 --- 23,746
CY2009 --- 16,672
CY2010 --- 22,361
CY2011 --- 30,024
CY2012 --- 37,260
CY2013 --- 36,159
CY2014 --- 41,336
CY2015 --- 45,535
CY2016 --- 49,028

For CY2010, January to July are relatively light, while August to December have much higher figures.

What is your take on likely demand build up with April VB for EB3I? I estimated it at only 1800 and I suspect that quite a few of them won't be processed within this FY. Even if CO moves the Dates to 31st Dec 2008 in May VB, I don't think the total demand generation will exceed 5K (assuming that USCIS will be able to process some of these applications) and that seems to be the only way of utilizing the numbers in this FY.

[EB2-03252009]

NO. But what could happen is something similar to Chinese Dates - EB3 being ahead of EB2. If anyone has already filed for AOS, then they could take a flier on Interfile and downgrade.

what is flier on Interfile and downgrade? sorry i got no info on this, can you explain in detail?

[Spectator]

Spec, I always have this question on PERM count. There were thousand of EB3 porting. Any thoughts impact of porting % by year.
All I can say is that EB3-I Inventory for 2007 has reduced by 60-65% since December 2009.

The figures USCIS published in 2010 were a good match to the IVAMS report that DOS made available at that time.

It's very difficult to say what the figures might be for years later than that. Over time, less people have filed in EB3 in the first place.

[na_dev]

So today there is a valuable lesson learnt.. for me at-least. People who stick to their employers for 10+ years in EB2-I have to do nothing, As soon as EB3-I gets current, you just have do a concurrent file of I-140 and I-485 in EB3-I. Then if dates go back in EB3-I and somehow EB2-I gets current...you can file another I-485 in EB2-I . It's not that "Drowning man will clutch at a straw" kind of situation, but it's the only legal option if you want to get EAD and AP legally after 10 years.
As always thank you guys..

[skpanda]

I followed the Chinese forums (with terrible translation) when the China downgrading phenomenon first started.

From memory:

1) Most Chinese already had an EB2 I-140 approved with the same company they were working for.

2) The company used the original PERM certification used for the EB2 I-140 approval to apply for an I-140 under EB3.

3) A bit fuzzy on this, but I don't think the new I-140 can be Premium Processed, because the original PERM certification is not attached. You'd need to check if this has changed.

4) A request to Interfile the basis of an existing I-485 from EB2 to EB3 must be made in writing to USCIS. It can only be made when the PD for the new category is current.

5) An I-485 can only be attached to a single I-140 at a time (EB2 or EB3 in this case).

6) If you wanted to switch back to EB2, then a new interfiling letter to USCIS requesting this would be required.

7) There's no concept of the I-485 being approved on the first category to become current.
Many Chinese have previously bounced between EB2 and EB3, chasing the best Final Action Date.



Spec.. this is news for me. I always thought that if you port EB3 -> EB2 or EB2 -> EB3, you need to start over and do PERM, I140 and I1485. So If I understand correctly what you said above, PERM is not needed.

In my specific case, I have EB2 PERM with PD Dec 2010. So if my PD is current in EB3, i can just file I140 and I485 concurrently and get EAD and AP under EB3? Is this correct?
If yes, can I apply for EB2 I485 in case EB2 gets current in future?

Basically get a Green card in which ever category offers me one?

Thanks for your inputs:

[knighthood83]

Spec.. this is news for me. I always thought that if you port EB3 -> EB2 or EB2 -> EB3, you need to start over and do PERM, I140 and I1485. So If I understand correctly what you said above, PERM is not needed.

In my specific case, I have EB2 PERM with PD Dec 2010. So if my PD is current in EB3, i can just file I140 and I485 concurrently and get EAD and AP under EB3? Is this correct?
If yes, can I apply for EB2 I485 in case EB2 gets current in future?

Basically get a Green card in which ever category offers me one?

Thanks for your inputs:

PERM is valid for 6 months after approval. It isnt valid forever. I doubt ppl who have 140 approved in EB2 with a expired PERM can simply port down.

One will need a new PERM. I am pretty certain a new PERM is needed.

[iatiam]

PERM is valid for 6 months after approval. It isnt valid forever. I doubt ppl who have 140 approved in EB2 with a expired PERM can simply port down.

One will need a new PERM. I am pretty certain a new PERM is needed.

I don't think new PERM is required, at least that's what this source is suggesting,
http://www.visatopia.com/services/perm-labor-certification-eb2-or-eb3/perm-frequently-asked-questions/

It says
"11. Can an EB-2 be downgraded to an EB-3 without filing for a new PERM?

Yes. In general, the petitioner needs to file the I-140 petition with an original approved labor certification for EB-2 and EB-3 petitions, and it must be filed within the 180-day validity period of the labor certification. However, the 2007 Neufeld Memo made exceptions for filing the subsequent/amended I-140 petition in instances where the amended petition is requesting a different visa classification than the visa classification requested in the previously filed petition (or when the previously filed Form I-140 petition has been determined to have been lost by USCIS/Department of Labor). USCIS will continue to accept amended or duplicate Form I-140 petitions that are filed with a copy of a labor certification that is expired at the time the amended or duplicate Form I-140 petition is filed, as long as the original approved labor certification was filed in support of a previously filed petition during the labor certification’s validity period."

Iatiam

[iatiam]

Does anyone know how long it takes to schedule a 485 interview at a USCIS field office? Looking at the latest 485 inventory, the EB3 total inventory is about 17,000 for an annual quota of 40,000. So if the visa wastage is to be avoided, they have to receive and adjucate at least 23,000 cases in six months. Six months is 182 calender days and 127 business days which translates to total of 181 petitions to be interviewed total in all field offices per day? How realistic is this? Does it mean that EB3 is going to lose the visas to EB1 and EB2, again?

I am not even considering the fact that the six-month-beyond-August-2007 date in April 2018 VB might be too little, too late. If I were an EB3 applicant within six months to an year of Aug 2007, I would have long ported, rather than wait a decade or more to file for 485. I personally know at least five people who changed jobs just so that they can port (PD in 2008) and they are all GC holders now.

Add to it the narrative that was told for the last ten years - if you are in EB3, you are doomed. I have not seen many people who willingly went for EB3 after the Aug 2007 visa fiasco.

Waiting on everyone's thoughts.

Iatiam

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Does anyone know how long it takes to schedule a 485 interview at a USCIS field office? Looking at the latest 485 inventory, the EB3 total inventory is about 17,000 for an annual quota of 40,000. So if the visa wastage is to be avoided, they have to receive and adjucate at least 23,000 cases in six months. Six months is 182 calender days and 127 business days which translates to total of 181 petitions to be interviewed total in all field offices per day? How realistic is this? Does it mean that EB3 is going to lose the visas to EB1 and EB2, again?

I am not even considering the fact that the six-month-beyond-August-2007 date in April 2018 VB might be too little, too late. If I were an EB3 applicant within six months to an year of Aug 2007, I would have long ported, rather than wait a decade or more to file for 485. I personally know at least five people who changed jobs just so that they can port (PD in 2008) and they are all GC holders now.

Add to it the narrative that was told for the last ten years - if you are in EB3, you are doomed. I have not seen many people who willingly went for EB3 after the Aug 2007 visa fiasco.



Bro, the Inventory is as of January 2018. We don't even know if it is end of Jan or beginning of Jan. How does that make it 6 months? It will be 8 or 9 months depending on the exact date of the Inventory. Another thing is the Interview is not mandatory for pending Inventory. It is only applicable to fresh applications after the new ruling came into force.

[idliman]

Bro, the Inventory is as of January 2018. We don't even know if it is end of Jan or beginning of Jan. How does that make it 6 months? It will be 8 or 9 months depending on the exact date of the Inventory. Another thing is the Interview is not mandatory for pending Inventory. It is only applicable to fresh applications after the new ruling came into force.
His whole point was whether EB3 will lose the numbers this year also because of too little too late. Anyone after PD July 2007 who are new to the I485 will have to go for interview. Looks like EB3 will lose some numbers this year. I hope they move the dates generously to mid/late 2009 or something so that people still on EB3I can get their EADs fast. Also, after 180 days of I485 pending, AC21 will kick in.

[altek001]

Hi Spec and other experts,
Since EB3 India is catching up and doing better than EB2 India, Should folks in EB2 India who have a priority date in 2009/10 start preparing applications NOW for downgrade?

[texas_]

how can you file approved I 140 which is for EB2 for EB 3?

I believe you need to have EB3 PERM first to file I 140. Isn't it?

[imdeng]

NOW might not be necessary - depends on how the next couple months play out.

Also - would a downgrade mean an in-person interview as it would be a new 485? Cursory googling says no. http://nairlaw.com/blog/posts/12


Hi Spec and other experts,
Since EB3 India is catching up and doing better than EB2 India, Should folks in EB2 India who have a priority date in 2009/10 start preparing applications NOW for downgrade?

[texas_]

Spec;
I have a question regarding :

2) The company used the original PERM certification used for the EB2 I-140 approval to apply for an I-140 under EB3.

Can one file I 140 for EB 3 category if his EB 2 I 140 is approved?

I never heard of this until today. I thought a person need to file PERM in EB 3 and then I 140 in EB 3 to port EB 2 priority date.

Please guide me

[Spectator]

how can you file approved I 140 which is for EB2 for EB 3?

I believe you need to have EB3 PERM first to file I 140. Isn't it?
There's no such thing as an "EB2" PERM or an "EB3" PERM.

At the I-140 stage, USCIS determines whether the PERM satisfies the minimum requirements for the EB category requested in the I-140 application.

Any PERM that satisfies the minimum EB2 requirements of "an advanced degree or bachelors plus 5 years progressive experience" will automatically satisfy the minimum EB3 requirements of "a bachelors degree or 2 years experience required".

A PERM doesn't expire, as long as it is used to support an I-140 application within 180 days of certification. Once that condition is satisfied, it can be used to support further I-140 applications, unless revoked by USCIS for cause.

[Spectator]

Also - would a downgrade mean an in-person interview as it would be a new 485? Cursory googling says no. http://nairlaw.com/blog/posts/12
It wouldn't require a new I-485 if one is already pending.

When the EB3 PD became current, a written request to interfile the existing I-485 to the new EB3 I-140 would be made. That's also what the article says.

Whether that would trigger an interview is another question.

USCIS actively discourages multiple I-485 applications.

[texas_]

Nice; Thanks for the Information Spec.

[skpanda]

There's no such thing as an "EB2" PERM or an "EB3" PERM.

At the I-140 stage, USCIS determines whether the PERM satisfies the minimum requirements for the EB category requested in the I-140 application.

Any PERM that satisfies the minimum EB2 requirements of "an advanced degree or bachelors plus 5 years progressive experience" will automatically satisfy the minimum EB3 requirements of "a bachelors degree or 2 years experience required".

A PERM doesn't expire, as long as it is used to support an I-140 application within 180 days of certification. Once that condition is satisfied, it can be used to support further I-140 applications, unless revoked by USCIS for cause.


Thats great news. I have EB2 PD Dec 2010. So if my PD becomes current in EB3, I can file I140 and I485 concurrently and also EAD/AP? Please confirm. Thanks!

[delguy]

There's no such thing as an "EB2" PERM or an "EB3" PERM.

At the I-140 stage, USCIS determines whether the PERM satisfies the minimum requirements for the EB category requested in the I-140 application.

Any PERM that satisfies the minimum EB2 requirements of "an advanced degree or bachelors plus 5 years progressive experience" will automatically satisfy the minimum EB3 requirements of "a bachelors degree or 2 years experience required".

A PERM doesn't expire, as long as it is used to support an I-140 application within 180 days of certification. Once that condition is satisfied, it can be used to support further I-140 applications, unless revoked by USCIS for cause.

If a PERM satisfies EB2 requirement for job X how can the same satisfiy EB3 requirements for job Y with lower standards? When the requirements are lower for EB3 that means more US citizens or GC holders could have applied for the same. Witjout that I doubt USCIS will accept that PERM for EB-3. I understand USCIS saying that a particular PERM dont meet the high bar for EB-2 and then someone applies for EB-3. However, once a PERM meets EB-2 standards; the same couldn’t be used for EB-3 as that would exclude a large pool from applying initially unless the language in PERM such that it satisfies both EB-3 and EB-2. For example - candidate should be a Masters in IT along with 1 year experience or a graduate with 3 years experience.

[iatiam]

If a PERM satisfies EB2 requirement for job X how can the same satisfiy EB3 requirements for job Y with lower standards? When the requirements are lower for EB3 that means more US citizens or GC holders could have applied for the same. Witjout that I doubt USCIS will accept that PERM for EB-3. I understand USCIS saying that a particular PERM dont meet the high bar for EB-2 and then someone applies for EB-3. However, once a PERM meets EB-2 standards; the same couldn’t be used for EB-3 as that would exclude a large pool from applying initially unless the language in PERM such that it satisfies both EB-3 and EB-2. For example - candidate should be a Masters in IT along with 1 year experience or a graduate with 3 years experience.

What you said "theoretically" makes sense. But given the fact that thousands of people have downgraded proves that it doesn't matter. It's probably the same logic with with QA leads and Java programmers claim GCs under EB1C category.

Iatiam

[Spectator]

However, once a PERM meets EB-2 standards; the same couldn’t be used for EB-3 as that would exclude a large pool from applying initially unless the language in PERM such that it satisfies both EB-3 and EB-2. For example - candidate should be a Masters in IT along with 1 year experience or a graduate with 3 years experience.

That is exactly the situation, when the existing PERM (previously used to support an EB2 I-140) is used for an EB3 I-140.

The minimum requirements for the job haven't changed and whether there were other applicants who could apply was tested before, when the PERM was originally submitted. It's excluding no one.

Just because an I-140 is applied for under EB3 doesn't mean that only the minimum requirements for EB3 are required to do the job.

All that is required is that they are equal to, or higher than the minimum requirements for EB3. There's no limit on how high the requirements are, as long as they are required for the position.

There's no requirement to file under EB2, even if the education/experience required supports it.

[Draper]

I followed the Chinese forums (with terrible translation) when the China downgrading phenomenon first started.

From memory:

1) Most Chinese already had an EB2 I-140 approved with the same company they were working for.

2) The company used the original PERM certification used for the EB2 I-140 approval to apply for an I-140 under EB3.

3) A bit fuzzy on this, but I don't think the new I-140 can be Premium Processed, because the original PERM certification is not attached. You'd need to check if this has changed.

4) A request to Interfile the basis of an existing I-485 from EB2 to EB3 must be made in writing to USCIS. It can only be made when the PD for the new category is current.

5) An I-485 can only be attached to a single I-140 at a time (EB2 or EB3 in this case).

6) If you wanted to switch back to EB2, then a new interfiling letter to USCIS requesting this would be required.

7) There's no concept of the I-485 being approved on the first category to become current.
Many Chinese have previously bounced between EB2 and EB3, chasing the best Final Action Date.

So effectively all perms are valid forever when an i-140 has been filed

[EB2-03252009]

Important AAO Dec Affecting EB-1C Applicants in U.S.

Matter of S-P-, Inc., Adopted Decision 2018-01 (AAO Mar. 19, 2018) clarifies that a beneficiary who worked abroad for a qualifying multinational organization for at least one year, but left its employ for a period of more than two years after being admitted to the United States as a nonimmigrant, does not satisfy the one-in-three foreign employment requirement for EB-1C immigrant classification as a multinational manager or executive. On the same day of March 19, 2018, the USCIS issued a Policy Memorandum adopting this decision as "precedent" binding decision for any future cases. Read on.
For the last few years, the number of immigrants using this EB-1C classification has steadily increased, affecting EB-1 immigrant visa numbers backlog for Indians and Chinese. This precedent and binding decision will somehow affect some of them who stay here for two years after their leaving from their employers in their home countries.

http://www.immigration-law.com/

[Spectator]

This precedent and binding decision will somehow affect some of them who stay here for two years after their leaving from their employers in their home countries.

http://www.immigration-law.com/
The full decision is here: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/2018/2018-03-19-PM-602-0158-Matter-of-S-P.pdf

Let's be clear about what happened.

The person had the required experience as a manager with Foreign Company F when they first came to the USA and joined Affiliate A. Had they remained employed by Affiliate A, the passage of time would not have had any effect on their eligibility for EB1C.

In this case, the person left Affiliate A and went to work for an entirely unrelated Company Z for 4 years.

They then rejoined Affiliate A. At the time they rejoined Affiliate A, more than the 3 years in which they needed to have worked at least 1 year for the the Foreign Company F had passed, so they failed too meet this requirement.

Affiliate A tried to claim that only the situation at the first entry to the USA should be considered.

Terrible explanation - it's much easier to just read the USCIS Memo.

[iatiam]

The full decision is here: https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/USCIS/Laws/Memoranda/2018/2018-03-19-PM-602-0158-Matter-of-S-P.pdf

Let's be clear about what happened.

The person had the required experience as a manager with Foreign Company F when they first came to the USA and joined Affiliate A. Had they remained employed by Affiliate A, the passage of time would not have had any effect on their eligibility for EB1C.

In this case, the person left Affiliate A and went to work for an entirely unrelated Company Z for 4 years.

They then rejoined Affiliate A. At the time they rejoined Affiliate A, more than the 3 years in which they needed to have worked at least 1 year for the the Foreign Company F had passed, so they failed too meet this requirement.

Affiliate A tried to claim that only the situation at the first entry to the USA should be considered.

Terrible explanation - it's much easier to just read the USCIS Memo.

Thanks for the explanation, Spec. How will this affect EB1C filings? Oh law firm makes it sound like it would have an impact.

Iatiam

[qesehmk]

Affiliate A tried to claim that only the situation at the first entry to the USA should be considered.

Thanks Spec. That's clear for me. What is not clear to me is where was the room for ambiguation in the first place. It was always clear to me that the 1 in 3 condition always speaks to the 3 years preceding the filing of GC under EB1.

I believe this is going to significantly reduce India EB1 filings. The reason being there are many Indian EB2 who hopped from one company to next using their old priority dates and then shopped for an EB1 using their past experience with an India centric outsourcing firm. I think USCIS simply failed to follow their own rules and allowed this mess. But it is only fair that they corrected it. EB2-India will benefit ... but most likely next year onwards because EB1 backlog will need to be cleared off such applicants as well as people who were stuck in EB1 due to such backlog.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. That's clear for me. What is not clear to me is where was the room for ambiguation in the first place. It was always clear to me that the 1 in 3 condition always speaks to the 3 years preceding the filing of GC under EB1.

I believe this is going to significantly reduce India EB1 filings. The reason being there are many Indian EB2 who hopped from one company to next using their old priority dates and then shopped for an EB1 using their past experience with an India centric outsourcing firm. I think USCIS simply failed to follow their own rules and allowed this mess. But it is only fair that they corrected it. EB2-India will benefit ... but most likely next year onwards because EB1 backlog will need to be cleared off such applicants as well as people who were stuck in EB1 due to such backlog.
Q,

Possibly you know better than me, but I tended to think that most Indian EB1-C were from the WITCH type companies and that most of those came direct to the company and never left for another Company before an EB1C was applied for.

Under those circumstances, the EB1-C petition could be applied for after any number of years and would not limited to just the 2 years after they joined the Company in the USA.


In promulgating the implementing regulations, the former Immigration and Naturalization Service concluded that it was not the intent of Congress to disqualify “nonimmigrant managers or executives who have already been transferred to the United States” to work within the same corporate organization. See 56 Fed. Reg. 30,703, 30,705 (July 5, 1991).

Thus, the regulation at 8 C.F.R. § 204.5(j)(3)(i)(B) allows USCIS to look beyond the three-year period immediately preceding the filing of the I-140 petition, when the beneficiary is already working for a qualifying U.S. entity.

Without such a provision, a beneficiary employed in the United States by a qualifying organization in a nonimmigrant status for more than two years would not be eligible for immigrant classification as a multinational manager or executive.

If my feeling is correct, I don't think the precedent decision is going to significantly lower the number of EB1-C approvals.

You're correct that people won't be able to hop Companies after coming to the USA to join an MNC and think they can then return to the MNC for an EB1-C petition at a much later date.

I think you're in a much better position to judge how much that happens, but if they had management experience with the MNC abroad before joining the US operation, that seems a disincentive to switch jobs.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec for explaining what created the ambiguity (i.e. USCIS themselves allowing 1 in 3 to not be applied when the candidate has been more than 2 years in US).

To answer why I think that is wrong - I will pick on your last sentence.


if they had management experience with the MNC abroad before joining the US operation, that seems a disincentive to switch jobs.

This is not true IMHO in most cases. My judgement (no empirical evidence ...but a pretty good understanding of how things work) is that majority of EB1Cs came to US generally at the lowest level and rose through the ranks. So they are quite qualified for be managers. That I do not doubt. But then this scenario is no different than an EB2 who is employed with an American company and is a director or a VP. The fact that s/he never served in India excludes them from benefitting from EB1C and is unfair.

The original USCIS condition was perfect - where the company is forced to send an employee to US as a management person.

Many times they are sending their average workers who later on become management or sometimes not. Team leader, project manager or even a manager is not really management. Management should be defined VP and above or perhaps director and above. Today USCIS is allowing this injustice to happen and they are not following their own rule to either letter or intent.

As you know I am an extremely pro immigrant person. But whether you look at it from "Justice / Fairness" angle or simply from "Good economic sense" perspective - the current decision is a very welcome step and they should broaden it to ALL applicants and start the 3 year clock to preceding 3 years for EVERYBODY including foreign nationals employed by American companies regardless whether they served abroad or not.

Q,

Possibly you know better than me, but I tended to think that most Indian EB1-C were from the WITCH type companies and that most of those came direct to the company and never left for another Company before an EB1C was applied for.

Under those circumstances, the EB1-C petition could be applied for after any number of years and would not limited to just the 2 years after they joined the Company in the USA.


If my feeling is correct, I don't think the precedent decision is going to significantly lower the number of EB1-C approvals.

You're correct that people won't be able to hop Companies after coming to the USA to join an MNC and think they can then return to the MNC for an EB1-C petition at a much later date.

I think you're in a much better position to judge how much that happens, but if they had management experience with the MNC abroad before joining the US operation, that seems a disincentive to switch jobs.

[EB2-03252009]

http://canteyhanger.com/news/immigration-news/

EB-2 India. Unlike the lack of visibility into EB-2 China demand, Charlie has significant visibility in his pending demand file for India. Members should therefore expect intermittent holding of the final action date coupled with continued gradual movement without volatility. Charlie is unable to advance EB-2 India more aggressively due to concerns about EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades. If there are otherwise unused EB-2 Worldwide numbers later this fiscal year, it may allow EB-2 India to advance further. The EB-2 India final action date advances one week in April to December 22, 2008. Charlie remains hopeful that the final action date in this category will get to early 2009 before the end of this fiscal year.

Two big questions...
1. Are there still upgrades from EB3 to EB2?
2. Will there be unused EB2-ROW later this yr?

[srimurthy]

As you know I am an extremely pro immigrant person. But whether you look at it from "Justice / Fairness" angle or simply from "Good economic sense" perspective - the current decision is a very welcome step and they should broaden it to ALL applicants and start the 3 year clock to preceding 3 years for EVERYBODY including foreign nationals employed by American companies regardless whether they served abroad or not.

If this is only an interpretation correction by USCIS ("the USCIS issued a Policy Memorandum adopting this decision as "precedent" binding decision for any future cases."), then how come it will apply only to cases going forward and not to all the ones that are already in Q, or the ones that are already approved.

[Immigo]

Q,


If my feeling is correct, I don't think the precedent decision is going to significantly lower the number of EB1-C approvals.



There are many instances where an employer applies for L1A or EB1C for L1B / H1B non-immigrant employee. Many of them do not have management responsibilities in the first two years. If at the time of the original L1B/H1B visa application, the employee responsibilities did not include management responsibilities (even if the the employer claims that the employee was a manager abroad), I wonder if this ruling can be extended to deny those EB1-C cases. If this happens, it can impact a larger population of EB1-C applicants.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec for explaining what created the ambiguity (i.e. USCIS themselves allowing 1 in 3 to not be applied when the candidate has been more than 2 years in US).

To answer why I think that is wrong - I will pick on your last sentence.

This is not true IMHO in most cases. My judgement (no empirical evidence ...but a pretty good understanding of how things work) is that majority of EB1Cs came to US generally at the lowest level and rose through the ranks. So they are quite qualified for be managers. That I do not doubt.

But then this scenario is no different than an EB2 who is employed with an American company and is a director or a VP. The fact that s/he never served in India excludes them from benefitting from EB1C and is unfair.
Q,

If the "majority of EB1Cs came to US generally at the lowest level and rose through the ranks", then they would not qualify for EB1-C.

It's a requirement for EB1-C that they worked in a Managerial or Executive position abroad for the 1 year in 3.

It's not enough to have simply worked in any position abroad, before becoming a Manager in the USA.

[qesehmk]

Q,

If the "majority of EB1Cs came to US generally at the lowest level and rose through the ranks", then they would not qualify for EB1-C.

It's a requirement for EB1-C that they worked in a Managerial or Executive position abroad for the 1 year in 3.

It's not enough to have simply worked in any position abroad, before becoming a Manager in the USA.
I think that standard is fuzzy and malleable. USCIS today is probably taking these companies at their word. I am pretty sure that the reality is closure to what I described.

[Jagan01]

I think that standard is fuzzy and malleable. USCIS today is probably taking these companies at their word. I am pretty sure that the reality is closure to what I described.
Lets be honest. Most EB1Cs are from WITCH companies and they have a couple reports (possibly new college grads). We all know they are not deserving the special treatment and the added scrutiny is always welcome.

I still fail to understand why they have no prevailing wage check for EB1C. The day the prevailing wage is established (lets just say its same as a director in USA - take 200k total) , there will not even be 4k Indian EB1C managers.

[redsox2009]

I was running the numbers.

Year 2007, 2008 and 2009 Perm Numbers vs I-485 approvals


Since year 2012 to 2017 and current pending 485 applications under EB-2 all together are 79368.*

* I pulled 485 values from Aug 2017 Inventory report for the period Aug 2007 to April 2009 and added to total approved cases since 2012.

6047 EB3 numbers were reduced from year 2003 to 2007 during the period 2012 to 2017.

Total Number of Perm approvals from Aug 2007 to April 2009 is 40013.

Based on these numbers I'm expecting EB3 values should be less than 4k from Aug 2007 to April 2009. Big question would be if the CO will be satisfied with the 4k or will request more?

[hope21]

Exactly, forget about 200k, we all know most(90-95%) of these WITCH companies have managers which are in IT and mostly are getting paid around 65k-80k. In IT we know that even if you are Level 1 programmer/developer you are paid around 60-80k depending upon your location of working. If H1 has prevailing wage requirements, then why not these so called WITCH managers have that requirement in IT. Let's say even if there is minimum wage requirement of around 130k for management, if you have those requirements in place, this will almost put an end to the EB1IC abuse and most of EB2I folks will be current. Why can't CO/USCIS think of this basic abuse and correct it?

[dubnis]

I was running the numbers.

Year 2007, 2008 and 2009 Perm Numbers vs I-485 approvals


Since year 2012 to 2017 and current pending 485 applications under EB-2 all together are 79368.*

* I pulled 485 values from Aug 2017 Inventory report for the period Aug 2007 to April 2009 and added to total approved cases since 2012.

6047 EB3 numbers were reduced from year 2003 to 2007 during the period 2012 to 2017.

Total Number of Perm approvals from Aug 2007 to April 2009 is 40013.

Based on these numbers I'm expecting EB3 values should be less than 4k from Aug 2007 to April 2009. Big question would be if the CO will be satisfied with the 4k or will request more?


Amigo!
You mean 40,013 or 4,013 PERM approvals between Aug 2007-Apr 2009 for EB3I? The impression was either less people filed PERM in EB3I category or got ported to EB2I. Just trying to understand approximately how many total new I485 cases are we expecting or estimating here for the above period. Btw, my EB3I PD is Mar 4 2009. Hence, the curiosity!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Lets be honest. Most EB1Cs are from WITCH companies and they have a couple reports (possibly new college grads). We all know they are not deserving the special treatment and the added scrutiny is always welcome.

I still fail to understand why they have no prevailing wage check for EB1C. The day the prevailing wage is established (lets just say its same as a director in USA - take 200k total) , there will not even be 4k Indian EB1C managers.

This is all interesting stuff, but why are we doing this in a Eb2-3 Predictions Forum?:rolleyes:

[HarepathekaIntezar]

http://canteyhanger.com/news/immigration-news/

Two big questions...
1. Are there still upgrades from EB3 to EB2?
2. Will there be unused EB2-ROW later this yr?


EB-3 India leaps ahead 11 months to February 1, 2008 in April. It is unclear at this time whether this category will advance or will hold at the same date for May. Members should watch this category closely and should file adjustment of status applications for clients as soon as they are eligible to do so.

I think this is another of those stupid Check-in reporting that I have been seeing. Why does CO not give a prediction for EB3I Dates in May? Don't the AILA Attorney's ask any questions during the check-in? If it is just a monologue, then CO might as well release a written statement and be done with it.Why does he have to show up in person to do this?

@Spectator your take on the above? When does an AOS Application show up in the 'Demand' File? The moment a Receipt Notice is generated? How does CO know those numbers? Does USCIS send DOS a Report of incremental category-wise AOS demand every month before CO releases the VB?

[qesehmk]

You are right HPTKI - I wouldn't do it unless i thought there was impact down below in EB2 and 3.

I think there is. Spec thinks there isn't.

My assumption A is (no empiracal evidence) 50% of EB1C India Manager cases should be impacted because I "believe" those many people hop from one company to another and back before their GC is filed in EB1C.

If "A" is true then they all will be ineligible in EB1 and hence the demand will be reduced. However given there is so much backlog in EB1 I do not believe this will reflect in EB2 until next year.

That's the long and short of my reason why I discussed this topic in this thread.


This is all interesting stuff, but why are we doing this in a Eb2-3 Predictions Forum?:rolleyes:

[Spectator]

I think this is another of those stupid Check-in reporting that I have been seeing. Why does CO not give a prediction for EB3I Dates in May? Don't the AILA Attorney's ask any questions during the check-in? If it is just a monologue, then CO might as well release a written statement and be done with it.Why does he have to show up in person to do this?

@Spectator your take on the above? When does an AOS Application show up in the 'Demand' File? The moment a Receipt Notice is generated? How does CO know those numbers? Does USCIS send DOS a Report of incremental category-wise AOS demand every month before CO releases the VB?

As far as I am aware.

An AOS application only shows up in the official DOS Demand file when USCIS adjudicate the I-485 and they request a visa from DOS.

If the date is current, a visa is issued and the AOS application is approved by USCIS.

If the date is retrogressed, the visa cannot be issued and the case details are stored in the DOS Demand file. When the date becomes current, a list of cases that have become current is sent to USCIS for final adjudication.

This is the reason CO has very little visibility of upcoming demand from USCIS when numbers become low and why he has difficulty assessing the USCIS demand for Categories/Countries that are Current.

With USCIS, CO only knows that a visa is required when USCIS adjudicate the I-485 case and request a visa during the month.

Because the Consular system allows the use of Filing Dates, the cases are reviewed much earlier in the process and the Consulates are able to send a report of their demand (by Category Country and PD) prior to CO setting the Cut Off Dates. The demand only reduces if the case is denied at Consular interview, in which case the visa is returned to DOS for reuse.



The USCIS Inventory does not include I-485s where the I-140 has not been approved.


B. I-485 Inventory Report

USCIS has worked to increase transparency to its stakeholders in numerous ways, including publication of the Form I-485 inventory report. The CISOMB indicates that the USCIS inventory of pending employment-based green card applications does not capture cases in categories where the Visa Bulletin is current (or where the cut-off dates have been reached) but are within current USCIS processing times (i.e., recently filed cases).

To clarify this point, the pending inventory report contains all principal and dependent employment-based green card applications pending at the Nebraska Service Center (NSC) and the Texas Service Center (TSC).

This includes cases for which visas are currently available but have not yet been adjudicated to completion, and cases that have been pre-adjudicated because the applicant is otherwise eligible but a visa is not currently available.

In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory.

This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times.

However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report.

**** In the Annual Report, the CISOMB indicates that there are approximately 23,000 cases currently awaiting interview and adjudication at USCIS Field Offices.

Approximately 13,446 cases have already been interviewed and pre-adjudicated by the USCIS Field Offices. Those cases are pending final adjudication once a visa becomes available. USCIS is finalizing guidance that will instruct Field Offices to send all pre-adjudicated employment-based green card applications to the TSC. Centralization of those cases will allow USCIS to provide DOS with greater visibility into the Agency’s pending inventory of employment-based green card applications.

**** Since this report, the Inventory does now contain the Field Office cases according to USCIS.

[redsox2009]

Feb Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-statistics/immigrant-visa-statistics/monthly-immigrant-visa-issuances.html




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
214
16
18
1
24
0
186
459


EB2
6
6
4
53
160
3
116
348


EB3
101
45
4
644
62
1
353
1210


EB4
2
11
1
10
4
0
61
89


EB5
229
11
8
0
46
27
168
489


Total
552
89
35
708
296
31
884
2595

[redsox2009]

Year to Date - Monthly Visa Issuance's via consular processing.




China
India
Mexico
Philippines
South Korea
Vietnam
ROW-SK-VET
Total


EB1
1338
152
39
3
160
8
867
2567


EB2
39
29
18
217
555
14
644
1516


EB3
187
158
78
2256
195
54
1672
4600


EB4
11
52
2
25
16
20
537
663


EB5
2730
129
26
7
192
430
939
4453


Total
4305
520
163
2508
1118
526
4659
13799

[bluelabel]

The total number 13799 for less than 6 months in this FY(Oct 2017-Mar 2018) makes the percentage of consular cases to be at ~20%. This seems to be above normal level, is there a reason for spike in consular cases this year?

[Spectator]

redsox2009,

As ever, thanks for compiling the figures.

[YTeleven]

The total number 13799 for less than 6 months in this FY(Oct 2017-Mar 2018) makes the percentage of consular cases to be at ~20%. This seems to be above normal level, is there a reason for spike in consular cases this year?

bluelabel,
ha ha... you just caught an interesting parameter.. I don't want to explain the cause of this.. but ultimate effect will be on EB3-I spillover after 6 months
let me give the hints and see who will crack that hidden reason.
1) this is related to EB3
2) this will lead to 25% CP processing ratio in this year i.e. FY18
3) this is a good sign for EB3-I on long term view in fact this is one of the pre-requisite for EB3-I to surpass the EB2-I dates
4) this trend will pave way for an additional 2 to 3k of horizontal spillover(potential) to EB3-I from next year onwards till it becomes current(meaning indirectly it will throttle the downward porting from EB2-I)
5) answer is just one word

[imdeng]

bluelabel,
ha ha... you just caught an interesting parameter.. I don't want to explain the cause of this.. but ultimate effect will be on EB3-I spillover after 6 months
let me give the hints and see who will crack that hidden reason.
1) this is related to EB3
2) this will lead to 25% CP processing ratio in this year i.e. FY18
3) this is a good sign for EB3-I on long term view in fact this is one of the pre-requisite for EB3-I to surpass the EB2-I dates
4) this trend will pave way for an additional 2 to 3k of horizontal spillover(potential) to EB3-I from next year onwards till it becomes current(meaning indirectly it will throttle the downward porting from EB2-I)
5) answer is just one word

And the answer starts with the letter....???

[YTeleven]

And the answer starts with the letter....???
What is March 14th?

[rock581]

What is March 14th?

I said it a few days back

[YTeleven]

I said it a few days back

Yes. You are correct. I was pointing to Philippines... for last few years the average visa consumption by this country in EB3 alone is 6700..
its back logged EB3 AOS demand has been depleted and now DOS is clearing the CP demand.. by the end of this FY18 this country will become current and it will not generate the 6700 demand in EB3 hence we can expect the spillover to EB3-I

[EB2-03252009]

so no SO to eb2 this year too? jus saw trackitt approvals that Specs updates, it increased this month for eb2-row

[HarepathekaIntezar]

As far as I am aware.

An AOS application only shows up in the official DOS Demand file when USCIS adjudicate the I-485 and they request a visa from DOS.

If the date is current, a visa is issued and the AOS application is approved by USCIS.

If the date is retrogressed, the visa cannot be issued and the case details are stored in the DOS Demand file. When the date becomes current, a list of cases that have become current is sent to USCIS for final adjudication.

This is the reason CO has very little visibility of upcoming demand from USCIS when numbers become low and why he has difficulty assessing the USCIS demand for Categories/Countries that are Current.

With USCIS, CO only knows that a visa is required when USCIS adjudicate the I-485 case and request a visa during the month.

Because the Consular system allows the use of Filing Dates, the cases are reviewed much earlier in the process and the Consulates are able to send a report of their demand (by Category Country and PD) prior to CO setting the Cut Off Dates. The demand only reduces if the case is denied at Consular interview, in which case the visa is returned to DOS for reuse.

The USCIS Inventory does not include I-485s where the I-140 has not been approved.


This includes cases for which visas are currently available but have not yet been adjudicated to completion, and cases that have been pre-adjudicated because the applicant is otherwise eligible but a visa is not currently available.

Hmmm...most of it sounds like gobble de gook to me, but still Interesting information. This means that backlogged countries Cases would show up in the Inventory as they always have I-140 already pre approved, whereas Current Categories cases would not as they would mostly be filing concurrent.

@Spectator, given that EB2 and 3 Category Indians file AOS with an Approved I-140, would they show up in Inventory or Demand as soon as USCIS issues a Receipt Notice or when USCIS issues Fingerprinting RFE?

Another question, how is 'Inventory' (looks like USCIS loves to use this term) different from 'Demand' (looks like CO loves to use this term)?

[texas_]

May be old story but here is what I got from our company's attorney:

Check-in with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim: March 14, 2018

Employment-based Categories

Why do the April Visa Bulletin final action date changes in the employment-based preference categories seem more dramatic than usual?

The advancements and retrogressions in final action dates in certain employment-based preference categories are attributable to several factors.

First, in terms of timing, the advancement of certain categories is intended to spur sufficient demand early enough in the fiscal year to maximize number use by September 30, 2018.

Second, number usage over the last few months has depleted the "pending demand" of pre-adjudicated cases in certain employment-based categories. The lack of visibility into future demand results in final action dates advancing more dramatically than would otherwise be the case, erring on the side of generating too much demand rather than risking numbers going unused.

Third, the transition of USCIS adjustment of status processing from service centers to field offices further impacts visibility into the full extent of employment-based demand. As a result, the spike in demand during this transition period that resulted in retrogression of certain categories may ultimately prove to be "artificial" and not be sustained throughout the year.

Ultimately, a lack of visibility into pending demand at USCIS means greater uncertainty into how to best move the final action dates. Dramatic advancements now could result in retrogressions next fiscal year if estimated demand levels are exceeded. Charlie remains hopeful that next year, after the transition of employment-based cases to USCIS field offices is complete, he will have a better understanding of the data that is available and be able to limit volatile movements in the final action dates. In the meantime, AILA members are advised to file adjustment of status applications for clients as soon as they are current in case a later retrogression prevents filing.

Consular Processing vs. Adjustment of Status.

While consular processing has historically represented about 15 percent of employment-based immigrant visa processing relative to adjustment of status, consular processing has increased this fiscal year to 25 percent of overall employment-based cases. Consular processing of EB-1 cases during the first four months of FY 2017 was roughly 1,200 while that number for FY 2018 rose to about 2,600. Similarly, consular processing of EB-3 cases in Manila increased to 80 percent compared to adjustment of status, whereas that split used to be about even.
AILA Note: One possible factor spurring an increase in consular processing is the uncertainty over processing times at USCIS field offices, given the new interview requirement.

EB-1.

Last month, we reported that EB-1 India and EB-1 China were expected have final action dates imposed as early as late spring. Both will have a January 1, 2012, final action date imposed starting in April. EB-1 Worldwide demand has been high, and a high volume of EB-1 India and EB-1 China cases were adjudicated to completion. Charlie imposed a final action date to allow EB-1 Worldwide to remain current for all other countries which had not yet reached the per-country annual limit. It is unclear whether this demand is a one-time spike caused by the transfer of cases within USCIS, or whether that demand will be sustained. If EB-1 Worldwide demand starts to drop off, it is possible that the EB-1 India and EB-1 China final action dates can be advanced late in the summer.

EB-2 and EB-3 China.

In April, EB-2 China advances almost eight months to August 1, 2014, and EB-3 China advances six and a half months to June 1, 2015. In making this advancement, Charlie has depleted all requests for visa numbers from his pending demand file. This dramatic forward movement is the result of having utilized all pre-adjudicated EB-2 China demand and ensuring that sufficient demand is generated to use all available visa numbers this fiscal year. If significant demand materializes, these categories could be at risk of retrogression.

EB-2 India.

Unlike the lack of visibility into EB-2 China demand, Charlie has significant visibility in his pending demand file for India. Members should therefore expect intermittent holding of the final action date coupled with continued gradual movement without volatility. Charlie is unable to advance EB-2 India more aggressively due to concerns about EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades. If there are otherwise unused EB-2 Worldwide numbers later this fiscal year, it may allow EB-2 India to advance further. The EB-2 India final action date advances one week in April to December 22, 2008. Charlie remains hopeful that the final action date in this category will get to early 2009 before the end of this fiscal year.

EB-3 India.

EB-3 India leaps ahead 11 months to February 1, 2008 in April. It is unclear at this time whether this category will advance or will hold at the same date for May. Since the final action date for EB-3 India is approaching that of EB-2 India, there may be fewer EB-2 upgrades, which could have a positive impact on the advancement of EB-2 India. Members should watch this category closely and should file adjustment of status applications for clients as soon as they are eligible to do so.

[Eagles_28]

'The EB-2 India final action date advances one week in April to December 22, 2008. Charlie remains hopeful that the final action date in this category will get to early 2009 before the end of this fiscal year.'

Hi Folks,
What is early 2009 that CO has mentioned. Does that include Jan 2009 ? I have a EB2I PD 29-Jan-2009. Apologize to ask this question. I am tired of working for this employer. Will I be current in next 2-3 bulletins?

[GCdreamz]

May be old story but here is what I got from our company's attorney:

Check-in with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim: March 14, 2018


Thanks for sharing. I did not find such detailed explanation online.

Gave me hope on dates movement based on building Inventory and EB2I dates advancement once CO gets confirmation/clarity of EB3 to EB2 upgrades & EB2- Row Spill Over. We might see May/June 2009 if all THREE happen.

[gcy2k07]

You are right HPTKI - I wouldn't do it unless i thought there was impact down below in EB2 and 3.

I think there is. Spec thinks there isn't.

My assumption A is (no empiracal evidence) 50% of EB1C India Manager cases should be impacted because I "believe" those many people hop from one company to another and back before their GC is filed in EB1C.

If "A" is true then they all will be ineligible in EB1 and hence the demand will be reduced. However given there is so much backlog in EB1 I do not believe this will reflect in EB2 until next year.

That's the long and short of my reason why I discussed this topic in this thread.


Please don't view this as EB1C bashing - however - I was reading all the articles about the H1B season opening and how all applications would be scrutinized and fraud eliminated. I fully understand that EB1C filers are following the rules but have no PERM, not minimum wage and no minimum education requirements. However, it pains me to see such applicants on forums discussing eligibility, RFEs, status changes - I would imagine multinational "executives" to be busier than that and have enough of a senior position at their employers that their legal team/HR would be dealing with such issues. I know the next reply would be EB2 and EB3 require the scrutiny as well. Sure - but at least they have a long process like PERM/LC/recruiting etc.

Now to the point of my post - what do the experts here think is the reason USCIS is not aggressively scrutinizing EB1C like they talk about regarding H1B? Is it only because the political rhetoric has been about H1B and not EB1C?

[Rachel3]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask: I tried googling it but got very confusing information. How long does it typically take to get i485 approval, after the PD becomes current (assuming you already have an approved EAD/AP document).

[HarepathekaIntezar]

This is a "EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)" Thread, please use this for that specific purpose.

[redsox2009]

Based on the first week approval of the EB-2 and EB-3, EB-2 might move upto a month and EB-3 might move upto a year to catch up with EB-2.

[dubnis]

Based on the first week approval of the EB-2 and EB-3, EB-2 might move upto a month and EB-3 might move upto a year to catch up with EB-2.

Amigo!
Are you referring to cases that are being approved for EB2I/EB3I in first week of April? Yes, EB3I is seeing quick approvals till Jul 2007. But no one knows how many new EB3I filers could come up beyond Jul 2007. So there is enough space till Feb 2008 for the new cases to come in and get approvals within FY2018. Subject to demand there might be advancements in EB3I cutoff dates in the next 2 VBs to avoid wastage.

[redsox2009]

Amigo!
Are you referring to cases that are being approved for EB2I/EB3I in first week of April? Yes, EB3I is seeing quick approvals till Jul 2007. But no one knows how many new EB3I filers could come up beyond Jul 2007. So there is enough space till Feb 2008 for the new cases to come in and get approvals within FY2018. Subject to demand there might be advancements in EB3I cutoff dates in the next 2 VBs to avoid wastage.


Yes, In the past I saw the trend where first week of the month tells Visa Bulletin Movement. If there are approvals then dates will advance, and no approvals, dates will retrogress. Last month EB1 India slowed down in first week of the month, that was an indication and EB3 approvals went sky rocketing.

Main reason why EB3 can advance is, all law firms were busy with H1B filing till April 6th and since USCIS will not receive much of the applications in since March 15th to April 6th, so USCIS will report less applications to CO, and he might advance dates further.


My theory/Guesstimate.

[dubnis]

Yes, In the past I saw the trend where first week of the month tells Visa Bulletin Movement. If there are approvals then dates will advance, and no approvals, dates will retrogress. Last month EB1 India slowed down in first week of the month, that was an indication and EB3 approvals went sky rocketing.
Main reason why EB3 can advance is, all law firms were busy with H1B filing till April 6th and since USCIS will not receive much of the applications in since March 15th to April 6th, so USCIS will report less applications to CO, and he might advance dates further.
My theory/Guesstimate.

Amigo - That is one good observation with some results from past to backup this prediction!

[Immigo]

That is exactly the situation, when the existing PERM (previously used to support an EB2 I-140) is used for an EB3 I-140.

The minimum requirements for the job haven't changed and whether there were other applicants who could apply was tested before, when the PERM was originally submitted. It's excluding no one.

Just because an I-140 is applied for under EB3 doesn't mean that only the minimum requirements for EB3 are required to do the job.

All that is required is that they are equal to, or higher than the minimum requirements for EB3. There's no limit on how high the requirements are, as long as they are required for the position.

There's no requirement to file under EB2, even if the education/experience required supports it.

I guess people with EB2 NIW will be out of luck as they will not be able to downgrade to EB3, if needed.

[EB3Iwaiting]

May VB is out: https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2018/visa-bulletin-for-may-2018.html

EB2I FA: 22nd Dec 2008 No Movement
EB2I FD: 1st April 2009 (Moved from 8th Feb 09)

EB3I FA: 1st May 2008 (3 months)
EB3I FD: 1st Sep 2008