EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)

[kb2013]

Any late 2009/ Jan 2010 EB3 filers who are current this month, but never had an AOS interview, have gotten their I485 approved?

[mesan123]

Congratulations Redsox2009.. Agree on all your points .. yes was ignorant like you and many others.. did not file from 2006 and ended up late, filed early 2011 (6th year of H1b)... hard lessons learnt.. but i push everyotger person i know not to delay there GC..

Finally applied fir my 485 .. will follow your advice to keep up with USCIS...

By the way did you post any number crunching with new upgrade scenario ?how you forsee FAD date movements.. when you get a chance do share your perspective ��

[longwaitgigu]

Yes and same experience here too. No medicals this time and still waiting for forms to be signed. Almost 2 weeks since I submitted everything to them.
What is ur PD

[longwaitgigu]

Exact on 10/8 we received email and submitted via email and printed copy on 10/14
Did receive email of confirmation
Still waiting
I am waiting for visa bulletin too
With PD of oct 2010-eb3, I want to submit my medicals too and not wait for rfe

[FlowerPot]

As like you and many others (inspiring backgrounds) that went thru similar situations, came here in 2006 but none to guide thru the process and mention the importance of PERM. I was in an assumption that if I worked 5+ years then I would become eligible for EB2 - thinking about those 2007-08 missing the boat days, i feel like a moron and cry within about my ignorance. Finally after so much struggle and failed PERM attempts, I filed the case during my 6th yr of H1b in May2011. Moved many employers and locations and about to file my 485 this month based on Oct'20 bulletin. My GC journey hasn't ended but reading you guys experiences does make a difference to many passive readers like me and provides confidence.

I think the company (and HR) that sponsors for H1 should also educate on the GC and PERM possibilities.

[QUOTE=redsox2009;67419]I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.

[inspired_p]

As like you and many others (inspiring backgrounds) that went thru similar situations, came here in 2006 but none to guide thru the process and mention the importance of PERM. I was in an assumption that if I worked 5+ years then I would become eligible for EB2 - thinking about those 2007-08 missing the boat days, i feel like a moron and cry within about my ignorance. Finally after so much struggle and failed PERM attempts, I filed the case during my 6th yr of H1b in May2011. Moved many employers and locations and about to file my 485 this month based on Oct'20 bulletin. My GC journey hasn't ended but reading you guys experiences does make a difference to many passive readers like me and provides confidence.

I think the company (and HR) that sponsors for H1 should also educate on the GC and PERM possibilities.

[QUOTE=redsox2009;67419]I wanted to share some positive news. Last week I received my 485 Approval notices.

Same Story repeated almost with everyone :) , I came here as a graduate student in Jan 2003 , working since 2005, naively had no clue about PERM/GC backlog.. it was an afterthought because H1-B will expire. Looking back now I really chuckle at my naiveness . Same story two fold is true for my wife.
And from my experience, most times companies do not have employees best interest at heart, they are not the right people to educate.

[19YRSNOGC]

Similar story as everyone, tried to file GC in 2006,couldnt complete the process and joined new company and waited too long to file,finally did it in dec 2009. still waiting for the GC

[inspired_p]

What are the predictions for EB3 ?
In oct 2019 Eb3 row , Philippines and Vietnam were current then had a April 2019 as a date in sept 2020.
Assuming ~5000 visas allowed to india China Philippines and Vietnam that’s 20K visas per country ;
I am assuming worst case scenario 20K visas will be allotted to EB3 ROW ( 1 year demand ) to make it current.
That’s leave additional 20K visas to be given to the most backlog category ( EB3-I).
Is this rough math correct ?

[rabp77]

Congratulations Red Sox. Great news. Thanks for sharing.

[YTeleven]

What are the predictions for EB3 ?
In oct 2019 Eb3 row , Philippines and Vietnam were current then had a April 2019 as a date in sept 2020.
Assuming ~5000 visas allowed to india China Philippines and Vietnam that’s 20K visas per country ;
I am assuming worst case scenario 20K visas will be allotted to EB3 ROW ( 1 year demand ) to make it current.
That’s leave additional 20K visas to be given to the most backlog category ( EB3-I).
Is this rough math correct ?

My equation is this:
261k = 150k(EB India) + 111k(EB others)

[gcconnect]

My equation is this:
261k = 150k(EB India) + 111k(EB others)

Can you split further and the expected FAD for EB2I and EB3I( If no Wastage):) . Too much exited after Decade wait.

[Justmyself]

@YTEleven, EB3 March 2011 here. Any chances of FAD reaching our dates by Oct 2021?

[kumareb2]

Hello gurus/pandits,
priority date: Eb2 Dec 2009
How about doing medicals now ( responded to medical RFE in July 2018)as a proactive measure in the anticipation of forwarding movement in EB2? As the medicals are valid for two years, and hopefully EB2 move to December 09 by the end of 2021...any thoughts?

[inspired_p]

My equation is this:
261k = 150k(EB India) + 111k(EB others)

How do you get to that ?
I calculated around 64K each for EB1 , EB2 and EB3 . 7% rule limits visa to 5K for the backlogged countries ( india, China , Vietnam and Philippines and maybe Mexico). Rest 40K are available for EB3- ROW to avail as many as they want. I figure they might use up 20K AOS max ; as many consulates are closed. So rest of the 20-25K should go to most backlogged country in the category that is EB3-I. So only ~30K to EB3-I and not 50k according to your calculations

[smuggymba]

smuggymba, I think it is better for you if you proactively submit I485-J. This will force an RFE for medicals and G-325A when the I485J is approved in 3 months. The medicals are valid for 2 years. So by the time, you respond to medical RFE, it will be 4 to 6 months from now and you will be current.

Or you can stay put and wait for the RFE when dates are current.

My PD is March 2010. on EAD+AP since 2012.

Changed jobs in 2015 and never field AC21. In anticipation of being current now or in the next 6 months - Should I pro-actively file AC21 alone or file AC21 + 485 supplement J together?

[Pundit Arjun]

My PD is March 2010. on EAD+AP since 2012.

Changed jobs in 2015 and never field AC21. In anticipation of being current now or in the next 6 months - Should I pro-actively file AC21 alone or file AC21 + 485 supplement J together?

Smuggymba,

I did file for AC21 rightaway when i switched jobs. I had an RFE in 2018 for Supplement J and provided the Supp J after the .
I did exactly per my attorney's recommendation. My 2 cents is for you to do the same ASAP - atleast AC21.
Plz do consult with your attorney before making final decision.

[YTeleven]

How do you get to that ?
I calculated around 64K each for EB1 , EB2 and EB3 . 7% rule limits visa to 5K for the backlogged countries ( india, China , Vietnam and Philippines and maybe Mexico). Rest 40K are available for EB3- ROW to avail as many as they want. I figure they might use up 20K AOS max ; as many consulates are closed. So rest of the 20-25K should go to most backlogged country in the category that is EB3-I. So only ~30K to EB3-I and not 50k according to your calculations
Why only 64K? why not this: 75K +75K +75K+18K+18K = 261K.
The logic behind my numbers is this:
In any normal processing year, "EB others" will get max 125K yearly and most of those are new applications but this year even though there is abundant of visa supply "EB Others" demand will be less due to various reasons and eventually they all may consume just 111K visas and the remaining 150K should go to India. I'm not calculating at the granular level, key here is to predict how many visas others will consume and the rest of the visas are for India.

[inspired_p]

Why only 64K? why not this: 75K +75K +75K+18K+18K = 261K.
The logic behind my numbers is this:
In any normal processing year, "EB others" will get max 125K yearly and most of those are new applications but this year even though there is abundant of visa supply "EB Others" demand will be less due to various reasons and eventually they all may consume just 111K visas and the remaining 150K should go to India. I'm not calculating at the granular level, key here is to predict how many visas others will consume and the rest of the visas are for India.
Understood. Make sense. It all depends on how the FB spillover is used across the backlogged countries I guess. Based on the rules all the spillover after the 7% limit is counted for other countries should go to India applicants in EB2 and EB3 categories; and EB2 should get some more based on how many are unused in EB-1 as well .
Both EB2 and EB3 FAD should move rapidly based on this.

[monsieur]

@YTEleven, EB3 March 2011 here. Any chances of FAD reaching our dates by Oct 2021?

I am not YTEleven but still taking a stab; Based on approved I-140 for both EB2 and 3; yes there is real good chance. Only disclaimer is visa wastage

[rohanvus]

Why only 64K? why not this: 75K +75K +75K+18K+18K = 261K.
The logic behind my numbers is this:
In any normal processing year, "EB others" will get max 125K yearly and most of those are new applications but this year even though there is abundant of visa supply "EB Others" demand will be less due to various reasons and eventually they all may consume just 111K visas and the remaining 150K should go to India. I'm not calculating at the granular level, key here is to predict how many visas others will consume and the rest of the visas are for India.

YT - My PD is Dec 2, 2011( in EB2) . My company has started working on EB3 downgrade but am not sure if they shall be able to file before 31st Oct .
Having said that , If things return to pre-covid times (consulates open ,etc..) by March 2021 then do you see FD/FAD dates move any further or do you see halt / retrogress ?
In other words , are we saying that for FY21 atleast we are already set for good despite things returning to normal by early spring or summer ?

[YTeleven]

YT - My PD is Dec 2, 2011( in EB2) . My company has started working on EB3 downgrade but am not sure if they shall be able to file before 31st Oct .
Having said that , If things return to pre-covid times (consulates open ,etc..) by March 2021 then do you see FD/FAD dates move any further or do you see halt / retrogress ?
In other words , are we saying that for FY21 atleast we are already set for good despite things returning to normal by early spring or summer ?

You try your best before 30th not 31st Oct. But for your PD the EB3 dates will be current even if there is a retrogress from Jan2015, so you may get several opportunities to downgrade in future.

[YTeleven]

@YTEleven, EB3 March 2011 here. Any chances of FAD reaching our dates by Oct 2021?

99.99% chances are there.

[rohanvus]

You try your best before 30th not 31st Oct. But for your PD the EB3 dates will be current even if there is a retrogress from Jan2015, so you may get several opportunities to downgrade in future.

Thanks YT - Sounds like you are bullish on EB3 . In worst case if I stay put in EB2, then you dont see EB2 dec 2,2011 getting current in a year from now ?
Is EB3 better regardless of whatever vertical spillover (from EB1 ) EB2 may get ?

[inspired_p]

Thanks YT - Sounds like you are bullish on EB3 . In worst case if I stay put in EB2, then you dont see EB2 dec 2,2011 getting current in a year from now ?
Is EB3 better regardless of whatever vertical spillover (from EB1 ) EB2 may get ?

I feel that the only thing that's going to limit the FAD to reach the DF mentioned in the Oct bulletin is the processing capacity/Willingness of USCIS. There are already some reports of USCIS waiving interviews for some EB category applications. So it may seem that USCIS does have willingness to speed up the process.

[inspired_p]

Understood. Make sense. It all depends on how the FB spillover is used across the backlogged countries I guess. Based on the rules all the spillover after the 7% limit is counted for other countries should go to India applicants in EB2 and EB3 categories; and EB2 should get some more based on how many are unused in EB-1 as well .
Both EB2 and EB3 FAD should move rapidly based on this.

Can USCIS give more than 7% visas to EB3-china as well or the rules specifically states that any spillover has to go to the most backlogged country completely ?

[longwaitgigu]

Can USCIS give more than 7% visas to EB3-china as well or the rules specifically states that any spillover has to go to the most backlogged country completely ?

But again as YT says 150k goes to india for eb1, eb2, eb3
Eb1 is backlog for China- so it will be divided I guess
For eb2- it should go to india
For eb3- we still have hidden demand from phillipines, SK
I learnt from trackitt- one user wagecuck seems to be knowledgeable on distribution rules
He or she said for eb3- other workers- 10,000 gc r issued each year regardless of spillover
So if eb3 skilled workers gc remain- that goes to india but if eb3 other workers gc remains that goes to china

[rohanvus]

But again as YT says 150k goes to india for eb1, eb2, eb3

150k going solely to India EB1,2,3 ?
Are you saying FB spillover is NOT equally applied to all countries ?
Because if FB spillover were to be equally applied then EB1 -India , EB2-India and EB3-India each will have is own quota of 5235 to use - this does not change things much for EB2/EB3 unless there is massive vertical spillover from EB1 or horizontal spillover from ROWs (which is anyone's guess at this point)

What am i missing ?

[inspired_p]

150k going solely to India EB1,2,3 ?
Are you saying FB spillover is NOT equally applied to all countries ?
Because if FB spillover were to be equally applied then EB1 -India , EB2-India and EB3-India each will have is own quota of 5235 to use - this does not change things much for EB2/EB3 unless there is massive vertical spillover from EB1 or horizontal spillover from ROWs (which is anyone's guess at this point)

What am i missing ?

I am also trying to understand the mechanism of how the spill over gets allotted but this is what i understand ( and I will use only EB3 as an example)

(261K* 7% )/ 3 gives around 6K visa per country cap in EB3 for FY2021
Also normally there are 40K visa in EB3 per year but this year there will be 75K visas available in EB3 category due to 35K extra visas due to FB spillover.
Backlogged countries are India, China Mexico ,Philippines and Vietnam - so each will be capped to 6K in EB3 category, totally 30K visas in the first pass.
Remaining 75K-30K = 45K visa are available for EB3 - ROW. It is safe to assume that EB3-ROW will not use up all of the 45K, say they use up 20K visa numbers, that leaves additional 25K EB3 visas to be utilized.
Again I believe that it is safe to assume that there would be still more applicants from EB3-China waiting and maybe EB3-philippines as well.
Based on what I have heard from experts, the 25K extra visa numbers still available are expected to be allotted to the MOST backlogged country, which will be India in this case. so India would end up getting 30K EB3 category visas this year.

[inspired_p]

But again as YT says 150k goes to india for eb1, eb2, eb3

For eb3- we still have hidden demand from phillipines, SK

Even if there is a hidden demand, each country has a limit of 7% every year , so I would expect them not be current soon but have some date associated ( FAD) . And once they have a FAD associated - the most backlogged country India would get the extra visas available.
Hence my question can USCIS siphon the extra visa numbers away from India applicants to other countries even though they are not the most backlogged.

[Justmyself]

Thank you. Hope they don’t waste visas. We did our medicals hoping our dates would be current in the next 2 yrs.

[JoinedToAsk]

Even if there is a hidden demand, each country has a limit of 7% every year , so I would expect them not be current soon but have some date associated ( FAD) . And once they have a FAD associated - the most backlogged country India would get the extra visas available.
Hence my question can USCIS siphon the extra visa numbers away from India applicants to other countries even though they are not the most backlogged.

https://ambals.blogspot.com/ claims 90K for EB2 and 40K for EB3.

[inspired_p]

https://ambals.blogspot.com/ claims 90K for EB2 and 40K for EB3.
Yes sounds right at the optimistic end; mine was more realistic/ pessimistic prediction ( 20K visas in EB3-ROW within the US with consulates closed). Considering fall up and fall down spillover EB2 might get more visas .. depending on how many unused visas trickle down to EB2 from EB4, EB5 And EB1, EB2 very well get further more visas than the 30-40K from FB spillover.
Fingers crossed - USCIS is able to process all these this year else they will move back to FB next year and any unused FB visas this year will get added to EB next year ( which might be significant as well if COVID keeps playing havoc in consular processing)

[srimurthy]

https://ambals.blogspot.com/ claims 90K for EB2 and 40K for EB3.

I guess you have not read the below statement:
we know that, EB1, EB4 and EB5 have backlog more than the available numbers for FY2021. If the processing happens properly, all of the visas available for these categories will be used up. That means, no spill over for EB2.
So expect the 5200 (7% overall) + 25 K (horizontal and vertical spillover) = 30K for EB2I to be a good realistic number and it will be more clear where we stand by Jan.

[vsivarama]

I would NOT expect vertical spillover to EB2 at this time as there are enough backlogged cases for EB4, EB5 and EB1. EB-ROW numbers are the ones to keep in mind. Folks who are old enough to remember the 2008 financial crisis, there were no spillovers from FB to EB but EB2-I still did get some substantial (Vertical + Horizontal spillover) numbers because of decline in ROW usage. I do not believe the ROW usage would be business as usual keeping up with the numbers from 2019 in FY 2021 even with the consulates opening up. So there is more of a chance of Horizontal spillover especially for EB2-I (expecting 5-10k). Visa number wastage is the real issue though. However, I recently learned that even if 485 is not completely adjudicated, if it's far along enough in it's processing, USCIS usually does apply a visa number to the pending case to avoid wastage. I cannot speak of the intent, but there is definitely a way for USCIS to use up all the numbers. Will it do so would depend on the intent of the admin.

[Spectator]

The September 2020 CP figures have been published at https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyIVIssuances/SEPT%202020%20-%20IV%20Issuances%20by%20FSC%20and%20Visa%20Class. pdf

I've posted the final analysis for the FY here (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards?p=67475&viewfull=1#post67475).

[bluelabel]

Anyone with Eb2I priority date in 2010 received RFE for medical recently? My priority date is March 2nd 2010 and received Medical and maintenance of status since my last entry on H1 RFE in 2018 and no updates since then. My medicals are already expired as i got them done September 2018.

My EAD/AP renewal just approved last week end and this did not trigger any RFE either for medical on I-485. I never sent Supplement J as it wasn't asked in the RFE in 2018, do i need to send Supplement J if i never changed my Job after applying I-485? Will sending Supplement J voluntarily trigger a medical RFE on I-485?

[longwaitgigu]

The September 2020 CP figures have been published at https://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/Immigrant-Statistics/MonthlyIVIssuances/SEPT%202020%20-%20IV%20Issuances%20by%20FSC%20and%20Visa%20Class. pdf

I've posted the final analysis for the FY here (https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/2679-Consular-Processing-Data-Published-by-DOS-From-March-2017-Onwards/page4).
So I guess it's safe to say
272,788 gc might be this EB 2021 limit?

[android09]

So I guess it's safe to say
272,788 gc might be this EB 2021 limit?

Bigger question is, how many will USCIS actually process and how many will it waste? We know empirically that they struggle to process 140,000 a year and in any given year, there is some wastage. Add to this construct, required visa interviews, additional RFEs, intentions and add in a pandemic situation where capacity, efficiency are not exactly optimal and not to mention dwindling operating budgets and you can imagine where we might get with this. Just as the number of spill over green cards added are historic, there is perhaps going to be visa wastage at historic proportions as well. Everyone is looking at their dates and how much the bulletins move forward, just also remember nothing has changed with regards to processing capabilities. Instead of X applications, USCIS will now need to process perhaps 1.8X applications. No additional personnel, no additional supporting vendor orgs to help process this additional workload and in fact, USCIS is sunsetting existing vendor support partners to reduce costs. Add to that, a nation wide injunction issued by the courts that stops USCIS from raising costs. I dont want to sound like an apologist for USCIS, just want everyone to be cognizant of that and have realistic expectations.

[iamdeb]

Bigger question is, how many will USCIS actually process and how many will it waste? We know empirically that they struggle to process 140,000 a year and in any given year, there is some wastage. Add to this construct required visa interviews etc, additional RFEs, intentions and add in a pandemic situation where capacity, efficiency and not to mention dwindling operating budgets and you can imagine where we might get with this. Just as the number of spill over green cards added are perhaps historic, there is perhaps going to be visa wastage at historic proportions as well. Everyone is looking at their dates and how much the bulletins move forward, just also remember nothing has changed with regards to processing capabilities. Instead of X applications, they now will need to process perhaps 1.8X applications. No additional personnel, no additional support vendor orgs and in fact, sunsetting existing vendors to censor costs. Add a nation wide injunction that stops USCIS from raising costs. Just want everyone to be cognizant of that and have realistic expectations.

on top of all this, they need to process the self sufficiency I-944 form as well :(......

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Bigger question is, how many will USCIS actually process and how many will it waste? We know empirically that they struggle to process 140,000 a year and in any given year, there is some wastage. Add to this construct, required visa interviews, additional RFEs, intentions and add in a pandemic situation where capacity, efficiency are not exactly optimal and not to mention dwindling operating budgets and you can imagine where we might get with this. Just as the number of spill over green cards added are historic, there is perhaps going to be visa wastage at historic proportions as well. Everyone is looking at their dates and how much the bulletins move forward, just also remember nothing has changed with regards to processing capabilities. Instead of X applications, USCIS will now need to process perhaps 1.8X applications. No additional personnel, no additional supporting vendor orgs to help process this additional workload and in fact, USCIS is sunsetting existing vendor support partners to reduce costs. Add to that, a nation wide injunction issued by the courts that stops USCIS from raising costs. I dont want to sound like an apologist for USCIS, just want everyone to be cognizant of that and have realistic expectations.

Now if they do the right thing by hiring more personnel on account of getting all the money from moving the filing dates ahead, they will be able to ramp up the approvals. That combined with waiving interviews will help. At this time, a lot hinges on the elections and the decisions made immediately after that until January no matter who wins.

[Spectator]

So I guess it's safe to say
272,788 gc might be this EB 2021 limit?

No, because that's only the CP numbers.

To calculate the limit, you would need to know the AOS approvals as well.

Best to stick with CO's initial estimate for now.

[srimurthy]

Assume they will drag their feet as much as they can. What I really want to know is can USCIS keep all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year, basically siphoning the extra visas to other countries rather than India. I keep hearing "hidden demand" in philippines and South korea in EB3 category.. but ideally that demand should not matter because those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year.

I am not sure but from the previous responses, I guess in previous years it was Philippines or South Korea that got more than 2800 (7% in EB3) because they did not use or reach the 7% in other categories like EB1, EB2 or FB. Not sure exactly they underutilized and overallocated beyond 2800 even through EB2/3 I and C and backlogged.

[vsivarama]

Now if they do the right thing by hiring more personnel on account of getting all the money from moving the filing dates ahead, they will be able to ramp up the approvals. That combined with waiving interviews will help. At this time, a lot hinges on the elections and the decisions made immediately after that until January no matter who wins.

Don't assume that USCIS can only apply a visa number once your case is approved. The USCIS can potentially apply a visa number to your case towards the end of FY 2021 and it will get approved when it does at a later time (FY 2022). Average AOS process time looks like between 12 - 24 months. So if they just waited to apply the numbers once cases got approved, they would be wasting numbers left right and center every year by just accepting filing dates for the next FY.

[racharox]

Hello gurus, Long time visitor of this forum, and would like to ask a question. I'm trying to understand the demand and supply equation here for EB2I/EB3I for this FY, and how the demand will individually play out for each category. For those who already upgraded their I140 from EB3 to EB2, and never filed 485, can those applicants choose to instead file under EB3? If yes - the FAD between these two categories won't be of a big difference, wouldn't it?

[vsivarama]

Greg Siskind's tweet about November bulletin - https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1318980930422427648

"Someone I trust has mentioned on a listserv that Charlie Oppenheim, the DOS official who writes the Visa Bulletin, told him that the November one won't be out, in all likelihood, before next Monday. So you can stop asking me when it's coming out." It looks like they want to wait as long as possible to see how many applications are filed before they release the bulletin. Maybe the fling dates won't be current next month if they are monitoring it so closely.

[idliman]

Greg Siskind's tweet about November bulletin - https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1318980930422427648

"Someone I trust has mentioned on a listserv that Charlie Oppenheim, the DOS official who writes the Visa Bulletin, told him that the November one won't be out, in all likelihood, before next Monday. So you can stop asking me when it's coming out." It looks like they want to wait as long as possible to see how many applications are filed before they release the bulletin. Maybe the fling dates won't be current next month if they are monitoring it so closely.
Great. This means people will not know whether the filing dates will be honored in November 2020 or not. USCIS usually takes a week after the VB to update its website. So anyone who is thinking of sending applications based on "DF", hurry-up and send the applications on or before 29OCT2020.

[ferric]

Bigger question is, how many will USCIS actually process and how many will it waste? We know empirically that they struggle to process 140,000 a year and in any given year, there is some wastage.

[..]

Instead of X applications, USCIS will now need to process perhaps 1.8X applications. No additional personnel, no additional supporting vendor orgs to help process this additional workload and in fact, USCIS is sunsetting existing vendor support partners to reduce costs.

They’re processing the same number of applications, though. Just less family more employment, not sure why any of this should make a difference, it’s not like FB VOs are different from EB VOs...

[YTeleven]

Greg Siskind's tweet about November bulletin - https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1318980930422427648

"Someone I trust has mentioned on a listserv that Charlie Oppenheim, the DOS official who writes the Visa Bulletin, told him that the November one won't be out, in all likelihood, before next Monday. So you can stop asking me when it's coming out." It looks like they want to wait as long as possible to see how many applications are filed before they release the bulletin. Maybe the fling dates won't be current next month if they are monitoring it so closely.
I don't see any logic behind retrogressing the dates so early. Only reason I could think of is the fee hike stay.

[rohanvus]

I don't see any logic behind retrogressing the dates so early. Only reason I could think of is the fee hike stay.

What does next Monday mean - is its 26th Oct or 2nd November ?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

What does next Monday mean - is its 26th Oct or 2nd November ?

Next Monday means the Monday that is coming next, which will be five days from today.

[Zenzone]

Great. This means people will not know whether the filing dates will be honored in November 2020 or not. USCIS usually takes a week after the VB to update its website. So anyone who is thinking of sending applications based on "DF", hurry-up and send the applications on or before 29OCT2020.

I think USCIS will continue to honor the DF charts in the Oct bulletin through Q1 21 fiscal. But that's not to say that you have to file to Idli's point above! Its always prudent to get it done as fast as you can!

[Spectator]

What I really want to know is can USCIS keep all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year, basically siphoning the extra visas to other countries rather than India. I keep hearing "hidden demand" in philippines and South korea in EB3 category.. but ideally that demand should not matter because those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year.

I’m not sure what you mean by “all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year”

There isn’t a 7% limit for the category “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” (sometimes called ROW).

ROW refers to over 200 individual Countries, each of which has their own 7% limit.

If one (or more) of those Countries reaches their 7% limit, then they will be shown separately in the VB with their own Cut Off Dates.

ROW will retrogress in a category when the overall demand is more than overall visas available for that category in the FY.

If overall demand for ROW is less than the number of visas available to them, then horizontal spillover will occur.

As someone else has mentioned, the 7% allocation does not necessarily mean exact prorated numbers in each category.

The 7% figure is calculated based on the total EB & FB allocations
e.g. (271,500 + 226,000) * 7% = 34,825.

Lower use elsewhere can allow more use in a category, so long as total use across all categories (both EB & FB) does not exceed the total 7% figure.

You can't make the blanket statement of "those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year" because it doesn't quite work like that.

Only a handful of Countries even approach 7% overall use.

[inspired_p]

I’m not sure what you mean by “all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year”

There isn’t a 7% limit for the category “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” (sometimes called ROW).

ROW refers to over 200 individual Countries, each of which has their own 7% limit.

If one (or more) of those Countries reaches their 7% limit, then they will be shown separately in the VB with their own Cut Off Dates.

ROW will retrogress in a category when the overall demand is more than overall visas available for that category in the FY.

If overall demand for ROW is less than the number of visas available to them, then horizontal spillover will occur.

As someone else has mentioned, the 7% allocation does not necessarily mean exact prorated numbers in each category.

The 7% figure is calculated based on the total EB & FB allocations
e.g. (271,500 + 226,000) * 7% = 34,825.

Lower use elsewhere can allow more use in a category, so long as total use across all categories (both EB & FB) does not exceed the total 7% figure.

You can't make the blanket statement of "those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year" because it doesn't quite work like that.

Only a handful of Countries even approach 7% overall use.
Thank you Spec. This explains a lot. I did not know 7% is for overall visas and not calculated per country per category. This would mean that Philippines South Korea high demand in EB3 may use up available visas if they don’t have any other visa allocation in other categories
Thank you for clarifying this.

[rabp77]

Thank you Spec. This explains a lot. I did not know 7% is for overall visas and not calculated per country per category. This would mean that Philippines South Korea high demand in EB3 may use up available visas if they don’t have any other visa allocation in other categories
Thank you for clarifying this.

yeah...of late it looks like per country cap is being applied across the EB + FB. But as i recollect, a few years ago, the per country cap used to be applied separately to the EB and FB.

[inspired_p]

yeah...of late it looks like per country cap is being applied across the EB + FB. But as i recollect, a few years ago, the per country cap used to be applied separately to the EB and FB.

Yes. Considering this, the horizontal spillover to EB3-I will be considerably less, also EB3-philipines and EB3-Vietnam might be current for the whole year allowing as many as 34K- other demands). And even when USCIS knows this, they moved the dates for EB3-I to Jan 15 2015. It really just baffles me, but its a step forward for all who can now apply for EAD/AP, even if FAD don't reach that date.

[optimista]

My understanding is that if you lose your job before 180 days after filing your I-485, you have to redo your PERM and I-140, but get to keep your priority date. So assuming many of you who are eligible sent out your applications to reach in the first week of Oct, you will be free in April 2021.

https://www.alllaw.com/articles/nolo/us-immigration/lose-job-while-green-card-processing.html

No, I have not heard anything like this before. Please see my other response on this. I have been told by 2 lawyers to the contrary. Cheers.

[longwaitgigu]

Yes. Considering this, the horizontal spillover to EB3-I will be considerably less, also EB3-philipines and EB3-Vietnam might be current for the whole year allowing as many as 34K- other demands). And even when USCIS knows this, they moved the dates for EB3-I to Jan 15 2015. It really just baffles me, but its a step forward for all who can now apply for EAD/AP, even if FAD don't reach that date.

Based on this explanation
How much horizontal spillover can we expect in eb3 and till what dates would be moved beginning of 2011?

[inspired_p]

Based on this explanation
How much horizontal spillover can we expect in eb3 and till what dates would be moved beginning of 2011?

Considering that EB3 Philippines and Vietnam were current in Oct 2019 and not current in Sept 2020, they used up more than their 7% overall quota of 34K last year , we should not be surprised if they use that up this year as well albeit more in EB3 category and less in FB category.
I really do not know how to make sense of these numbers obviously. Hope we get better answers from the gurus.

[richie.rich]

One of my friend is planning to downgrade and his lawyer sent him this. Anyone hear something similar?

“We wanted to make you aware of some issues arising from EB-2 to EB-3 downgrades in today’s immigration environment.

Some immigration attorneys are reporting that I-140 EB-3 downgrade cases are being returned by the USCIS. Apparently, if we mark that it’s a ‘new’ case and not an ‘amendment’ of a previously filed and approved I-140 EB-2 application, today’s USCIS doesn’t consider the underlying PERM labor certification to be valid for the EB-3 case.

This is contrary to law and past practice in these types of situation. The American Immigration Lawyers Association (AILA) is currently challenging this USCIS procedural issue and we will keep you posted on the outcome.

Having said that, we want to make sure everyone makes an informed decision based on the above, so please note the following:

If we file the I-140 EB-3 downgrade as a ‘new’ case, there is a decent possibility USCIS will return it, along with the accompanying I-485 application(s). If this happens, the employee will still retain the EB-2 I-140 approval and will have to wait until they are eligible to file their AOS under EB-2 and/or when clear guidance is issued by USCIS for EB-3 downgrades. If we file the I-140 EB-3 downgrade as an ‘amended’ case, the USCIS will likely accept it and the accompanying I-485 application(s). As previously discussed, if the USCIS denies the amended I-140 petition, the I-485 applications, will, in turn, be denied. The employee will, however, still retain the I-140 EB-2 approval. If the USCIS approves the EB-3 I-140 as an amendment, the employee will lose the EB-2 approval and will be in EB-3 for the rest of the green card application process.”

[Zenzone]

Yup same here, only started posting since last year. I used to post in Murthy forum a long time back (~2005-2006) and used to remember JoeF lecturing everyone though he did always provide accurate information. I lost interest in GC and other things after that and only picked it back up last year. I do plan to hang around and post and help others after I get my GC. Barring any immigration reform, there is going to be another decade of suffering on the horizon for backlogged EB2/3-I folks, and I plan to provide them with help and support through their difficult times as others have done so here.

For someone who started posting just last year, that's a pretty good run rate of posts :) I appreciate your thoughts!

[chhablsa]

You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control :)

[longwaitgigu]

Any predictions for eb3 india by gurus after spectator post

[qesehmk]

You are absolutely correct COVID has certainly opened up a window that otherwise just was not possible at all.

I just want to say the COVID effect is going to spill over into 2022 as well i.e. next October we will see some more spillover. Imagine this. The consulates won't be operating fully well at least until Feb next year. If biden is elected they will start operating at full capacity IMHO if it's trump, they will find any excuse to stifle FB visas. So EB will be benefited regardless.

There is one more ray of hope for EB folks. That is removal of country caps. Both senate and house are quite educated on country caps and so you should expect to see removal push regardless who wins.

You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control :)

[qesehmk]

You just made me login and write something, I have been a loyal reader of this forum. I drifted away for some time because nothing was moving in the GC world for Indians but it seems COVID brought new hope for Indian citizens for GC. So spending a little more time nowadays on this forum. Always appreciated the wealth of information and intellect I see here, no other forum is civil and respectful like this one. I am not knowledgeable enough to advise someone and I think you and many other gurus are doing a darn good job. Thank you for that. I am one more count in EB2 from June 2012. My company declined the request to downgrade, so waiting to see how things are going to turn up in the next six months. As redsox advised I will keep pushing my organization and if a change of heart happens I will jump on to EB3 boat because it seems that's the only way I may get greened soon enough. Again Thanks for all your wisdom it certainly helps to keep nerves under control :)

And welcome! You said quite aptly that while none of us have any ability to accelerate GC for anybody else, we can certainly soothe nerves by sharing information and experiences in a cooperating and respectful manner.

[chhablsa]

You are absolutely correct COVID has certainly opened up a window that otherwise just was not possible at all.

I just want to say the COVID effect is going to spill over into 2022 as well i.e. next October we will see some more spillover. Imagine this. The consulates won't be operating fully well at least until Feb next year. If biden is elected they will start operating at full capacity IMHO if it's trump, they will find any excuse to stifle FB visas. So EB will be benefited regardless.

There is one more ray of hope for EB folks. That is removal of country caps. Both senate and house are quite educated on country caps and so you should expect to see removal push regardless who wins.

Thank You Q - Yourself, Spec, YTeleven, redsox, Kanmani you all are the studded stars of this forum. Even though my wait (like many of us) for GC is forever, I always find my solace here on this forum. "Turbulent_Dragonfly" inspired me to come out of my "read only" mode by delivering > 200 messages in a year, that rate is actually "turbulent fast". :)
After COVID first time I am hopeful that I may get GC in this lifetime and if a per country bill passes then that day will be true for many of us. Fingers crossed

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Some chatter about aggressive movement of dates in Nov bulletin:

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status/1319606680431329280

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1319651350532247552

[mesan123]

I had submitted my 485 application package on Oct 5th, USCIS received on Oct 6th. On Oct 19th I received text notifications with case numbers for all 3, 485, 131 and 765. USCIS tracker shows that the applications were received and notices are in the mail.

Congratulations. Could let us know Which service center? I m guessing your date was current and filed 485 and not a downgrade?

[tomhagen]

Some chatter about aggressive movement of dates in Nov bulletin:

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status/1319606680431329280

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1319651350532247552

18 months jump ??.. aapkaa muhmee sakkar sarkaar :) .. That will be a blessing of the century

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

18 months jump ??.. aapkaa muhmee sakkar sarkaar :) .. That will be a blessing of the century

Yeah I am a bit surprised that Siskind supported that 18 month prediction. He is usually cagey about making VB date movement predictions.

[redsox2009]

One of my friend is planning to downgrade and his lawyer sent him this. Anyone hear something similar?

“
Some immigration attorneys are reporting that I-140 EB-3 downgrade cases are being returned by the USCIS. Apparently, if we mark that it’s a ‘new’ case and not an ‘amendment’ of a previously filed and approved I-140 EB-2 application, today’s USCIS doesn’t consider the underlying PERM labor certification to be valid for the EB-3 case.”

If you are downgrading with an existing approved EB-2 then you have to file as an amendment. On the I-140 application Part2, Checkbox in Part 1.e should be selected and Part 2a should be selected and provide old EB2 Approved Case number.


The rest of the required info is straight forward as old I-140.

[mcmilers]

I don't think either Siskind or Stock spelled out 18 months. They are simply saying the FAD movement will be big... lets hope thats true.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I don't think either Siskind or Stock spelled out 18 months. They are simply saying the FAD movement will be big... lets hope thats true.

Yeah true that. I thought Siskind was responding to another reply which made the 18 month prediction. He was just responding to Stock's post. I sure hope they move the filing date for EB2 at least another year or so.

[incredible]

Yeah true that. I thought Siskind was responding to another reply which made the 18 month prediction. He was just responding to Stock's post. I sure hope they move the filing date for EB2 at least another year or so.

I have asked our attorney about the movement and what he thinks for my PD (02.10.10) for EB2 FAD. He mentioned that it will be current in the November bulletin. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

[newyorker123]

Gurus,
Question about EB2 NIW and EB3.
Lets say I have an older EB2 approved with a 2012/2013 PD, and recently got my EB2 NIW approved.
Can I file (EB3 I140 + I485) with my employer without PERM ? I have not yet started PERM with my current employer. Please advise.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I have asked our attorney about the movement and what he thinks for my PD (02.10.10) for EB2 FAD. He mentioned that it will be current in the November bulletin. I am keeping my fingers crossed.

Wow, that is pretty optimistic! 5+ month movement will be insane and obviously welcome!

[vsivarama]

Gurus,
Question about EB2 NIW and EB3.
Lets say I have an older EB2 approved with a 2012/2013 PD, and recently got my EB2 NIW approved.
Can I file (EB3 I140 + I485) with my employer without PERM ? I have not yet started PERM with my current employer. Please advise.

If you have a petition approved with EB2 NIW then you cannot downgrade to EB3. As my attorney put it, NIW applications do not have an associated PERM and hence you cannot downgrade to EB3 as you do not have a PERM.

[inspired_p]

If you have a petition approved with EB2 NIW then you cannot downgrade to EB3. As my attorney put it, NIW applications do not have an associated PERM and hence you cannot downgrade to EB3 as you do not have a PERM.

And NIW is only applicable if you file for EB2.

[AlmostThere]

Gurus,

Do you know anything about email from NVC for LIVAOS IV fee.
Does that tell anything about FAD?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

My apologies if this has already been answered. What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another post says that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

The purpose of having 2 dates is to avoid uncertainity or frequent retrogression of FAD.. FD can move back and forth but FAD should have only forward movement except during last month of the FY.

What is the rule for allocating the Spillovers this year? I read a few posts that say it is EB1-> EB2 -> EB3. Another post says that they will just be used to clear out the earliest PD's irrespective of EB Category as long as the 7% Per Country limit is respected. Please clarify.

[idliman]

Its the 26th Noon and still no VB yet. Are they waiting for S.Miller's blessings from the COVID ward? Twitteratis any inside scoop on what's going on?

[GCMirage]

Folks - What is NIW(National interest waiver) ? I read somewhere this is filed to maintain EB2 standing when requesting a downgrade to EB3. Is this correct ?

[inspired_p]

I have seen a lot of folks suggesting keeping H1B status active after getting EAD (pending I-485). The reason I heard is the worst-case scenario if I-485 is denied you go out of status from the day you filed I-485. Can someone provide more perspective, because getting a job with H1B is very very difficult and whats are some other considerations if even after getting EAD you want to keep H1B. Also how it is quite often to get I-485 rejected if you move jobs?

I am at similar point -I applied concurrently this October first time.
For me, I am trying to gain some statistical data by general googling. main questions that I am trying to get answered
1) How likely is it that I-485 will be denied ?
2) What are major reasons for I-485 denials?

No real statistics on offer anywhere; but denial rates are very low in EB categories in general.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Folks - What is NIW(National interest waiver) ? I read somewhere this is filed to maintain EB2 standing when requesting a downgrade to EB3. Is this correct ?

EB2-NIW does not need a PERM as the work is in the national interest of the US. There is no special quota and it also comes under the EB2-I so you won't get any benefit of filing early. There is no requirement to do that while downgrading to EB3. You can't downgrade an EB2-NIW petition to EB3 as there is no underlying PERM.

https://www.visalaw.com/downgrading-suddenly-strategy-backlogged-immigrants/

[inspired_p]

How soon should I expect the premium processing check cashed ?
I assume the premium processing clock
Starts on the date of receipt number generation ?

[gcconnect]

Its the 26th Noon and still no VB yet. Are they waiting for S.Miller's blessings from the COVID ward? Twitteratis any inside scoop on what's going on?

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

[Moveon]

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

That seems to be the only logical explanation. There must be Tens of Thousands applying with a majority to downgrade and I am not sure if they are equipped to handle this volume of work .

[rabp77]

That seems to be the only logical explanation. There must be Tens of Thousands applying with a majority to downgrade and I am not sure if they are equipped to handle this volume of work .

i think this is probably one of the latest in the month its come out. It should come out this week, we have never had an instance that i know of where the visa bulletin has not be published in the prior month. But its unusual times, and nothing is surprising anymore :-).

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://twitter.com/ReichlinMelnick/status/1320805551262097408

This is the kind of 'Service' that is being provided by USCIS. They need to drop the S at the end, pathetic morons. All they know to do is cash our checks and then deny the services.

[android09]

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?

I wonder if it's one of 3 cases:

1. Lets move the dates extensively for a month and then move to pull the Filing dates back again to get a pipeline of cases to process.

2. We need the money flowing given other applications have sort of curtailed and we really need to keep this funding going.

3. We really have green cards to give and the dates lend themselves to be moved forward significantly to help people waiting for years.

[gc_dedo]

Gurus,

Please comment.

https://ambals.blogspot.com/2020/10/spillover-immigrant-visas-to-eb2-india.html#comment-form

It says, if USCIS is able to process the cases at scale, there will not be spillover from EB4/5/1 to EB2/3.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

William Stock preposterously predicting India to move to January 2016, please ignore that. Seems like clickbait.

Siskind replying:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1320858448901361669
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1320862173975977987

@gsiskind
Replying to @wstock215 and @cyrusmehta
I don't even want to put my negative prediction out lest the messenger get blamed. I see modest improvement in EB-2 India and bad news for EB-3 India. But Bill is one of my more pessimistic friends and I would very much like things to play out as he's forecasting.

@gsiskind
Replying to @ejtaub
Or Charlie knows there is a tsunami of applications coming this week and wants as accurate an assessment of demand as possible.

[YTeleven]

Gurus - Any significance for the delayed VB? Are they trying to calculate based on the received number of applications?
I don't see any reason for taking time for FD dates as they should be pre-determined. They might need time for FAD dates to plan as they have to print 22k+ GCs every month till Sep to meet the target of 261k..

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I don't see any reason for taking time for FD dates as they should be pre-determined. They might need time for FAD dates to plan as they have to print 22k+ GCs every month till Sep to meet the target of 261k..

It's good that USPS has ramped up operations to support the extraordinary number of mail-in ballots being pushed through. Will help in mailing all those green cards out, eh? :p

[smuggymba]

Just for fun, Q can delete if irrelevant.

1716

[aGCHopefull]

Hello!!

Question for all who have filed this month, have you gotten the receipt yet?

[inspired_p]

Sorry it was a bad copy paste , I think that is what the lawyer was questioning; USCIS rejected I-765 but accepted everything else as if the no fees are in effect

[rohanvus]

Filed concurrently last week, received I-140 receipt # and both checks (485 and I-140 premium processing ) debited from bank today

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

[inspired_p]

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

No. I was in a unique position where PERM was approved but 140 was not filed yet; so I had the option of concurrent filing with premium without any issues

[inspired_p]

Is your case of Eb2 to Eb3 downgrade ? If so , is premium processing allowed for such downgrade ?

But What I understand , premium is allowed for downgrade applications as well , just there is a possibility of USCIS not finding the original PERM quick enough to complete the adjudication in the 15 calendar window.

[2011Feb]

Hello!!

Question for all who have filed this month, have you gotten the receipt yet?

No... waiting.... Mine was sent on Oct 1st. Still waiting for receipt.
Mine is EB3 Feb 2011.

[gcconnect]

Nope. Mailed Oct. 9. EB3 downgrade via new I-140 filing. I think besides the deluge of applications, the USCIS is confused whether they want to reject all downgrades to EB3 that were not filed as I-140 EB2 amendments, which would be a departure from their previous practice. I am thinking we will not get receipts this month. It is tricky in that if they do return these EB3 downgrades that are not amendments to the previously approved EB2 I-140s, and USCIS does not accept filing dates next month, those applicants will probably not get a chance to file AOS (and get EAD/AP) for a long time. At the same time, I think it is risky amending the approved EB2 I-140 and letting USCIS another express opportunity to mess with it,

Any source for downgrade new vs amend confusion? I am thinking due to high Volume, its taking time and will get clarity in couple of weeks

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Nope. Mailed Oct. 9. EB3 downgrade via new I-140 filing. I think besides the deluge of applications, the USCIS is confused whether they want to reject all downgrades to EB3 that were not filed as I-140 EB2 amendments, which would be a departure from their previous practice. I am thinking we will not get receipts this month. It is tricky in that if they do return these EB3 downgrades that are not amendments to the previously approved EB2 I-140s, and USCIS does not accept filing dates next month, those applicants will probably not get a chance to file AOS (and get EAD/AP) for a long time. At the same time, I think it is risky amending the approved EB2 I-140 and letting USCIS another express opportunity to mess with it,

That is a whole lot of conjecture in one post. Too many "I think"s, so unless there is documentary evidence that this is actually happening, we need to be careful not to unnecessarily worry everyone.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Any source for downgrade new vs amend confusion? I am thinking due to high Volume, its taking time and will get clarity in couple of weeks

That in my opinion too, is the safe assumption. I mean, EB3 just got moved to 2015. There's got to be thousands of applications filed by eligible applicants.

[user017]

On EB3 downgrade rejection, it is isolated to one service center due to a training issue. There is no change in USCIS policy, downgrade must be a new application.

[vsivarama]

Nope. Mailed Oct. 9. EB3 downgrade via new I-140 filing. I think besides the deluge of applications, the USCIS is confused whether they want to reject all downgrades to EB3 that were not filed as I-140 EB2 amendments, which would be a departure from their previous practice. I am thinking we will not get receipts this month. It is tricky in that if they do return these EB3 downgrades that are not amendments to the previously approved EB2 I-140s, and USCIS does not accept filing dates next month, those applicants will probably not get a chance to file AOS (and get EAD/AP) for a long time. At the same time, I think it is risky amending the approved EB2 I-140 and letting USCIS another express opportunity to mess with it,

As per my attorney, AILA verified this with USCIS, and USCIS confirmed that they are accepting applications filed as new and everything else is just conjecture at this point. Even if they reject all the downgrades, the lawyers will refile the application in November regardless of FD or FAD as they were filed in a timely manner and there is no basis in the rules for rejection. I know our trust in govt. is very low at this point, but USCIS cannot just make up rules as they go along. USCIS is in dire need of funds.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Question – Any instance of VB not released at all in the past for a month. What is Rule Book says?

No, you can check the records back to 2002.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Update from Siskind:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1321168498391945216

@gsiskind
Still no November Visa Bulletin. I have heard that the issue is with something having nothing to do with the backlogged folks and has something to do with Trump's EO on Hong Kong. But really no details to add and it's very second hand.

[delguy]

Question – Any instance of VB not released at all in the past for a month. What is Rule Book says?

There is nothing written as such but they should release it before 1st of next month. So we should have it by Friday.

Before Trump admin it was always released around 10th and even a release date of 15 was considered late. Usually we had it before that and rarely around 15th. Dont remember it ever released on 20th or later.

I believe they might be planning to retrogress the dates in the coming VB instead of moving them. Chances are EB-3 may retrogress and EB-2 moves ahead to control the EB-3 downgrades.

[rabp77]

Update from Siskind:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1321168498391945216

@gsiskind
Still no November Visa Bulletin. I have heard that the issue is with something having nothing to do with the backlogged folks and has something to do with Trump's EO on Hong Kong. But really no details to add and it's very second hand.

Its either this. There is also some speculation that they are just delaying it to get to know exact number of application they get in October to decide if filing dates can be accepted for November. That speculation seems strange because after the state dept publishes its bulletin, uscis normally takes a few days to say if filing dates will be accepted. Maybe they are just trying arrive on a combined decision. All speculation.

[inspired_p]

There is nothing written as such but they should release it before 1st of next month. So we should have it by Friday.

Before Trump admin it was always released around 10th and even a release date of 15 was considered late. Usually we had it before that and rarely around 15th. Dont remember it ever released on 20th or later.

I believe they might be planning to retrogress the dates in the coming VB instead of moving them. Chances are EB-3 may retrogress and EB-2 moves ahead to control the EB-3 downgrades.

If we are speculating, then I do not see any reason for USCIS to retrogress the Filling dates for either EB2 or EB3, it only adds more revenue to them. They can control the number of visas allotted using the FAD and they have been conservative on that date even in October 2020. Number of EB3 downgrade petitions are also should not be an issue for USCIS for the same reason as above, its double fees for the same person applying, the visa number consumed stays the same.

I believe the Filling dates will not move for this year anymore. USCIS will only decide to use them or not in every subsequent bulletin while moving the FADs conservatively till December 2020. If the consulates open up . they can see more EB3 demand from outside the country that they can fulfill, else they will start processing AOS within the country (basically the backlogged countries)

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://www.aila.org/advo-media/issues/all/fy2021-visa-bulletins

AILA Doc. No. 20101201 | Dated October 27, 2020

This featured issue page gathers resources related to FY2021 visa bulletins.

November 2020
The November Visa Bulletin remains in clearance at the DOS, due to an internal dispute of some new language unrelated to priority dates. Watch this Roundtable to find out the latest on why AILA expects that we will see forward movement in the November priority dates and that USCIS will continue using Dates for Filing in November. The Roundtable also has helpful practice and ethics information and gives you a rundown of all available resources related to the Visa Bulletin.

FYI, Roundtable is accessible only to AILA members

[Moveon]

If we are speculating, then I do not see any reason for USCIS to retrogress the Filling dates for either EB2 or EB3, it only adds more revenue to them. They can control the number of visas allotted using the FAD and they have been conservative on that date even in October 2020. Number of EB3 downgrade petitions are also should not be an issue for USCIS for the same reason as above, its double fees for the same person applying, the visa number consumed stays the same.

I believe the Filling dates will not move for this year anymore. USCIS will only decide to use them or not in every subsequent bulletin while moving the FADs conservatively till December 2020. If the consulates open up . they can see more EB3 demand from outside the country that they can fulfill, else they will start processing AOS within the country (basically the backlogged countries)

Speaking about revenue, the USCIS might not be too happy with a lot of folks getting the EAD. Will they not make more money with HIB transfers and renewals ? It also keeps the consulates busy in India . For them HIB is a gift that keeps giving .

[inspired_p]

Speaking about revenue, the USCIS might not be too happy with a lot of folks getting the EAD. Will they not make more money with HIB transfers and renewals ? It also keeps the consulates busy in India . For them HIB is a gift that keeps giving .

That is a good point as well. A lot of non immigrants will stop being non immigrants along with their families getting right to work. They do have incentive for not allowing EB3-I apply in mass numbers. As I have speculated, I do believe they are moving the FAD cautiously till December 2020 in hopes that consulates open up around the world and they can siphon more visas away from the spillover to countries other than India. EB3 ROW does not have any limit and can consume as many visas applied in that year eating into the spillover.If consulates remain close only demand will be from within the US and EB3-ROW will have finite number of applicants within US that will be greened in this year for sure.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Cliffs Notes from Siskind's FB video chat:

I-485 filing: Apps HAVE to be in USCIS on Oct 30 or may be rejected

Visa Bulletin Notes:
Should be out by the end of the week
Record for latest bulletin ever released
Likely that they are trying to figure out EB2/EB3 app number
Don't know what FADs are going to be for EB2/EB3
Some in internal circles (Stock) are predicting EB2/EB3 FADs to advanced further
Siskind does not know how many numbers roll over yet and not very optimistic
Thinks Eb2 is going to move forward because of heavy downgrades
From Bill Stock estimates - there is a 120k rollover, 40k each for EB1/2/3 + 40k for a total of 80k each category
ROW gets a crack at 80k, but there is not going to be enough usage as they are current
All extra numbers are going to be used by backlogged categories

Siskind thinks pure EB3 India will use up most of the numbers (i.e. those who filed in EB3 and stayed in that queue)
Question is Eb2 - EB3 downgrades, thinks there are probably 150k - 200k who are going to downgrade
Also heard that delays are due to EO on Hong Kong and those numbers are being counted

Warning: Problems people are having in EB2-EB3 downgrades when filing in Premium
Their firm is yet to see any denials
AILA is reporting that people are sporadically getting denials on premium processing, some are getting outright denials
Recommendation is do regular processing, get receipted and then do premium

Questions:
CSPA
CSPA says age is frozen when visa number is immediately available, i.e. FAD is current, and not DF
Siskind thinks that is a problem because the whole reason DF is available is that they think the numbers are there within the FY, then why does CSPA not follow that. So opens up to potential lawsuits.

Blank fields in I-485
Siskind does not think it is being applied to EB, and it only seems to being applied to asylum applications.

FB to EB Spillover prevention legislation
Don't need to worry about numbers that rolled over already from FY2020 to FY2021.
House bill is not going to happen.
There may be an effect on rollover from FY2021 to FY2022 and they may try to stop that to alleviate pressure on FB applicants.

What to do if you already downgraded in Oct and now EB2 is current in Nov?
If you filed new EB3 I-140 for downgrade, you can again file I-485 with old I-140
If you did not do that, file fresh I-485 interfile based on old I-140. It could be tricky.

[Sebiswaiting]

Prediction game :)
My predictions:
EB2 FAD will move by 4 months.
EB3 FAD will move by 3.5 months.
EB2 FD will remain same
EB3 FD may move back to Jun 2014
Nov will still use filing date.
Just PREDICTION nothing else.

[inspired_p]

Prediction game :)
My predictions:
EB2 FAD will move by 4 months.
EB3 FAD will move by 3.5 months.
EB2 FD will remain same
EB3 FD may move back to Jun 2014
Nov will still use filing date.
Just PREDICTION nothing else.


My predictions:
EB2-I FAD will move by 4 months.
EB3-I FAD will move by 6 months.
EB2-I FD will remain same
EB3-I FD will remain same
Nov will still use filing date.

[usvisas]

My guesstimate (hope it actually is much much better than this)

EB2 FAD will move by 2 months at the most (01NOV09) .
EB3 FAD will move to 30APR2010 at least.
EB2 FD will remain same
EB3 FD will remain same
Nov will still use filing date.

[inspired_p]

Cliffs Notes from Siskind's FB video chat:

I-485 filing: Apps HAVE to be in USCIS on Oct 30 or may be rejected

Visa Bulletin Notes:
Should be out by the end of the week
Record for latest bulletin ever released
Likely that they are trying to figure out EB2/EB3 app number
Don't know what FADs are going to be for EB2/EB3
Some in internal circles (Stock) are predicting EB2/EB3 FADs to advanced further
Siskind does not know how many numbers roll over yet and not very optimistic
Thinks Eb2 is going to move forward because of heavy downgrades
From Bill Stock estimates - there is a 120k rollover, 40k each for EB1/2/3 + 40k for a total of 80k each category
ROW gets a crack at 80k, but there is not going to be enough usage as they are current
All extra numbers are going to be used by backlogged categories

Siskind thinks pure EB3 India will use up most of the numbers (i.e. those who filed in EB3 and stayed in that queue)
Question is Eb2 - EB3 downgrades, thinks there are probably 150k - 200k who are going to downgrade
Also heard that delays are due to EO on Hong Kong and those numbers are being counted

Warning: Problems people are having in EB2-EB3 downgrades when filing in Premium
Their firm is yet to see any denials
AILA is reporting that people are sporadically getting denials on premium processing, some are getting outright denials
Recommendation is do regular processing, get receipted and then do premium

Questions:
CSPA
CSPA says age is frozen when visa number is immediately available, i.e. FAD is current, and not DF
Siskind thinks that is a problem because the whole reason DF is available is that they think the numbers are there within the FY, then why does CSPA not follow that. So opens up to potential lawsuits.

Blank fields in I-485
Siskind does not think it is being applied to EB, and it only seems to being applied to asylum applications.

FB to EB Spillover prevention legislation
Don't need to worry about numbers that rolled over already from FY2020 to FY2021.
House bill is not going to happen.
There may be an effect on rollover from FY2021 to FY2022 and they may try to stop that to alleviate pressure on FB applicants.

What to do if you already downgraded in Oct and now EB2 is current in Nov?
If you filed new EB3 I-140 for downgrade, you can again file I-485 with old I-140
If you did not do that, file fresh I-485 interfile based on old I-140. It could be tricky.

Good notes!

[JoinedToAsk]

I am curious: what happens when USCIS doesn't have the capacity to process so many AOS applications and GC? Will they waste visas/GCs?

[inspired_p]

I am curious: what happens when USCIS doesn't have the capacity to process so many AOS applications and GC? Will they waste visas/GCs?
If they can’t process the visas till September 2021 then yes they have to reset the next years EB Visa availability to 140K + FB spillover of 2021( which might be substantial as well).
I also heard that whatever visas not allotted in EB2 this year ( considering 261K) will move back to FB visas for 2022 year.
So technically visas are not lost they just go back to FB in the next year

[aGCHopefull]

If they can’t process the visas till September 2021 then yes they have to reset the next years EB Visa availability to 140K + FB spillover of 2021( which might be substantial as well).
I also heard that whatever visas not allotted in EB2 this year ( considering 261K) will move back to FB visas for 2022 year.
So technically visas are not lost they just go back to FB in the next year

Do they keep going back in circle? I was under impression they don't go back again to FB. Those visa # would most likely be lost.

[Moveon]

Do they keep going back in circle? I was under impression they don't go back again to FB. Those visa # would most likely be lost.

That is my understanding too. Any unused Visa's will need to be recaptured by a bill I suppose . Did they do that in 2005 when we had close to 250K GCs ?

[Zenzone]

Cliffs Notes from Siskind's FB video chat:

I-485 filing: Apps HAVE to be in USCIS on Oct 30 or may be rejected

Visa Bulletin Notes:
Should be out by the end of the week
Record for latest bulletin ever released
Likely that they are trying to figure out EB2/EB3 app number
Don't know what FADs are going to be for EB2/EB3
Some in internal circles (Stock) are predicting EB2/EB3 FADs to advanced further
Siskind does not know how many numbers roll over yet and not very optimistic
Thinks Eb2 is going to move forward because of heavy downgrades
From Bill Stock estimates - there is a 120k rollover, 40k each for EB1/2/3 + 40k for a total of 80k each category
ROW gets a crack at 80k, but there is not going to be enough usage as they are current
All extra numbers are going to be used by backlogged categories

Siskind thinks pure EB3 India will use up most of the numbers (i.e. those who filed in EB3 and stayed in that queue)
Question is Eb2 - EB3 downgrades, thinks there are probably 150k - 200k who are going to downgrade
Also heard that delays are due to EO on Hong Kong and those numbers are being counted

Warning: Problems people are having in EB2-EB3 downgrades when filing in Premium
Their firm is yet to see any denials
AILA is reporting that people are sporadically getting denials on premium processing, some are getting outright denials
Recommendation is do regular processing, get receipted and then do premium

Questions:
CSPA
CSPA says age is frozen when visa number is immediately available, i.e. FAD is current, and not DF
Siskind thinks that is a problem because the whole reason DF is available is that they think the numbers are there within the FY, then why does CSPA not follow that. So opens up to potential lawsuits.

Blank fields in I-485
Siskind does not think it is being applied to EB, and it only seems to being applied to asylum applications.

FB to EB Spillover prevention legislation
Don't need to worry about numbers that rolled over already from FY2020 to FY2021.
House bill is not going to happen.
There may be an effect on rollover from FY2021 to FY2022 and they may try to stop that to alleviate pressure on FB applicants.

What to do if you already downgraded in Oct and now EB2 is current in Nov?
If you filed new EB3 I-140 for downgrade, you can again file I-485 with old I-140
If you did not do that, file fresh I-485 interfile based on old I-140. It could be tricky.

Great summary my friend!

[Zenzone]

That is a good point as well. A lot of non immigrants will stop being non immigrants along with their families getting right to work. They do have incentive for not allowing EB3-I apply in mass numbers. As I have speculated, I do believe they are moving the FAD cautiously till December 2020 in hopes that consulates open up around the world and they can siphon more visas away from the spillover to countries other than India. EB3 ROW does not have any limit and can consume as many visas applied in that year eating into the spillover.If consulates remain close only demand will be from within the US and EB3-ROW will have finite number of applicants within US that will be greened in this year for sure.

You are absolutely inflating the ROW case here. I want to add that context here to balance out your commentary here.

[AlmostThere]

My predictions for Nov-2020:
EB2-I FAD will move by 3 months.
EB3-I FAD will move by 4 months.
EB2-I FD will remain same for the first half of the year, then a good chance it could jump by 6 months.
EB3-I FD will remain same for the first half of the year, then a good chance it could retrogress by 1 year.
ONLY Nov will still use filing date.

1) Predictions based on last 10 yrs of visa bulletin data, where in FAD continue to move(although slowly) after Oct, but FD usually pauses.
2) The FD announced in the Month of Oct is usually an indication of FAD by the year end(or before). Pretty consistent since 2015.

[iamdeb]

My predictions for Nov-2020:
EB2-I FAD will move by 3 months.
EB3-I FAD will move by 4 months.
EB2-I FD will remain same for the first half of the year, then a good chance it could jump by 6 months.
EB3-I FD will remain same for the first half of the year, then a good chance it could retrogress by 1 year.
ONLY Nov will still use filing date.

1) Predictions based on last 10 yrs of visa bulletin data, where in FAD continue to move(although slowly) after Oct, but FD usually pauses.
2) The FD announced in the Month of Oct is usually an indication of FAD by the year end(or before). Pretty consistent since 2015.

Comparing and predicting this years movement with past 5 years is a fallacy.....none of the previous years had around 120K spillover from FB....also there was no pandemic happening in 2015-2019.........except 2016 none of the year was an election year......also never ever were so many downgrades happening......so too many odds to calculate.......

[AlmostThere]

Agree, but the thought process shouldn't change... its just that now it will get speed up.

[Zenzone]

Comparing and predicting this years movement with past 5 years is a fallacy.....none of the previous years had around 120K spillover from FB....also there was no pandemic happening in 2015-2019.........except 2016 none of the year was an election year......also never ever were so many downgrades happening......so too many odds to calculate.......

This is definitely an outlier year so the historic norms and expectations tend to break. I won't be surprised if the EB2 filing dates are moved in Q2 if downgrades are massive. Also, where is the precedent for visa bulletin not being issued until the 28th?

[vsivarama]

This is definitely an outlier year so the historic norms and expectations tend to break. I won't be surprised if the EB2 filing dates are moved in Q2 if downgrades are massive. Also, where is the precedent for visa bulletin not being issued until the 28th?

I would not bet on Eb2 filing dates movement. 90% of the EB2 downgrades will be after the date of May 15, 2011. Not a lot of folks who can file AOS directly will be willing to downgrade or have the support of their company. If my date was before May 15th, I would not have downgraded and put additional scrutiny on my application (with the current admin and constant rule changes).

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Do they keep going back in circle? I was under impression they don't go back again to FB. Those visa # would most likely be lost.

They don't go back and forth in circles.

This may have been covered here but for FB, the FB limit is the maximum of 226000 or (480000 – IR + SO). IR is immediate relatives. So there are very less chances of EB spillover affecting FB and they will likely be wasted.

Maybe someone else can explain it better.

[inspired_p]

You are absolutely inflating the ROW case here. I want to add that context here to balance out your commentary here.

I was thinking the same. But EB3 -ROW includes Philippines , Skorea, Vietnam which were backlogged last year. And the way 7% country limit is determined is based on total visa and not per category ( Spectator explained it very well in a previous post)
So these three countries can avail a lot more visa through EB3 category ( with FB not being available through comsulate) and will eat out a lot of visa from EB3-ROW category .. and in turn will eat out an horizontal spillover to EB3-I. All I am saying that for EB-I , it will not be 30K-35K extra visas... it will be more like 10K-15K

[2001USA]

Now that there are many of us filing I-485 (AOS), does anyone know how USCIS decides to prioritize processing them? Is it FIFO or do they prioritize AOS for those with current FAD?

[gcconnect]

I was thinking the same. But EB3 -ROW includes Philippines , Skorea, Vietnam which were backlogged last year. And the way 7% country limit is determined is based on total visa and not per category ( Spectator explained it very well in a previous post)
So these three countries can avail a lot more visa through EB3 category ( with FB not being available through comsulate) and will eat out a lot of visa from EB3-ROW category .. and in turn will eat out an horizontal spillover to EB3-I. All I am saying that for EB-I , it will not be 30K-35K extra visas... it will be more like 10K-15K

If thats true, how the FD moved to 2015 for EB3I

[tomhagen]

Hang in there, I'm sure all centers are flooded with tons of applications so they're slow.

My employer confirmed that yesterday USCIS encashed the checks for both me and my wife. So hoping to get the receipt number soon.

[iamdeb]

because they wanted more money from us w.r.t filing fees................

[inspired_p]

If thats true, how the FD moved to 2015 for EB3I

Based on estimated demand( which is zero). I am one of the people who have filed in EB3 thinking it is the best case scenario but gurus here have made several post to temper down the expectations. My observations are based on those posts

[Zenzone]

I would not bet on Eb2 filing dates movement. 90% of the EB2 downgrades will be after the date of May 15, 2011. Not a lot of folks who can file AOS directly will be willing to downgrade or have the support of their company. If my date was before May 15th, I would not have downgraded and put additional scrutiny on my application (with the current admin and constant rule changes).

But if ppl. had originally filed in Eb3 and then upgraded to EB2 later they could opt to adjust using the old EB3 petition without having to amend or file new in EB3. That's a less of a risk and I know people who are doing that. Only large companies are strict about this stuff. Good chunk of small and mid-tier companies are much more flexible. The trend line many attorneys are publishing now is that you can file a brand new AOS concurrently with your EB3 I-140 and retain both your Eb2 and EB3 positions in the line. This is why I believe that EB3 FAD will move faster for next 2-3 months but eventually EB2 has to catch-up once the downgrades kick-in and move in tandem (max. 3-4 months difference) in the FAD category. I think the panic filing in EB3 for mid-late 2010 PDs will heat-up once the EB3 FAD crosses spring 2010.

[rocketfast]

A lot of larger companies that I know of is not filing medicals with the application to reduce their workload. This IMO will force USCIS to waste more GCs than they otherwise would have. A RFE from a place like texas service center pretty much means a 3 month delay.

If you observe trackitt approvals for the months of october, it is mostly EB1-I and EB3-I approvals this month with very few EB2-I being approved. All the EB2-I apps are stuck with medical RFEs.

[Zenzone]

A lot of larger companies that I know of is not filing medicals with the application to reduce their workload. This IMO will force USCIS to waste more GCs than they otherwise would have. A RFE from a place like texas service center pretty much means a 3 month delay.

If you observe trackitt approvals for the months of october, it is mostly EB1-I and EB3-I approvals this month with very few EB2-I being approved. All the EB2-I apps are stuck with medical RFEs.

And Why would EB3-I won't have medicals RFEs as such?

[srimurthy]

A lot of larger companies that I know of is not filing medicals with the application to reduce their workload. This IMO will force USCIS to waste more GCs than they otherwise would have. A RFE from a place like texas service center pretty much means a 3 month delay.

If you observe trackitt approvals for the months of october, it is mostly EB1-I and EB3-I approvals this month with very few EB2-I being approved. All the EB2-I apps are stuck with medical RFEs.

What is adding to the workload by adding a Medical. It is a form where the applicant is filling the minimal information and everything else is filled in and closed by the Doctors.
The only thing the lawyers need to do is add that sealed cover to the list of documents being sent. If we scheduled the docs appointment on time, the forms could have been handed over in a 10 days time (most cases) to the lawyers that would be time by which they can all align the paper work.

[AceMan]

The advancement of Filing dates to materialize for this FY, the final action dates have to move drastically in the next 3 bulletins.

Eb2 I should be 1st March 2010 in November bulletin and
Eb3 I should be 1st March 2011

[rabp77]

And Why would EB3-I won't have medicals RFEs as such?

Rocket fast is right.

Reason is most eb3 movement has happened in the last 2 years. So people who filed in eb3 with pd in late 2009/early 2010 still have valid medical with USCIS. With eb2 there is a much higher likelyhoon of the medicals having expired, as many eb2 cases were filed in 2012.

[inspired_p]

I’m not sure what you mean by “all other countries "current" even after they reach their 7% limit for this year”

There isn’t a 7% limit for the category “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” (sometimes called ROW).

ROW refers to over 200 individual Countries, each of which has their own 7% limit.

If one (or more) of those Countries reaches their 7% limit, then they will be shown separately in the VB with their own Cut Off Dates.

ROW will retrogress in a category when the overall demand is more than overall visas available for that category in the FY.

If overall demand for ROW is less than the number of visas available to them, then horizontal spillover will occur.

As someone else has mentioned, the 7% allocation does not necessarily mean exact prorated numbers in each category.

The 7% figure is calculated based on the total EB & FB allocations
e.g. (271,500 + 226,000) * 7% = 34,825.

Lower use elsewhere can allow more use in a category, so long as total use across all categories (both EB & FB) does not exceed the total 7% figure.

You can't make the blanket statement of "those countries should get capped off at 7% ( ~5K visas) for this year" because it doesn't quite work like that.

Only a handful of Countries even approach 7% overall use.

This is why EB3-ROW will consume a lot more than expected

[gcconnect]

The advancement of Filing dates to materialize for this FY, the final action dates have to move drastically in the next 3 bulletins.

Eb2 I should be 1st March 2010 in November bulletin and
Eb3 I should be 1st March 2011

WOW. They may go like 2 to 3 months rather than one big jump for Final action dates.

[vsivarama]

This is why EB3-ROW will consume a lot more than expected

A lot of usage by Philippines, S. Korea etc. will be offset by low demand in EB3-ROW. I would keep an eye out on the perm applications being filed over the last few months as more and more companies are unwilling to commit long term with recession staring them right in the face.

[inspired_p]

They don't go back and forth in circles.

This may have been covered here but for FB, the FB limit is the maximum of 226000 or (480000 – IR + SO). IR is immediate relatives. So there are very less chances of EB spillover affecting FB and they will likely be wasted.

Maybe someone else can explain it better.

Unfortunately I am not able to find the source anymore for this. If someone has a credible information on this I would love to be wrong. But what I understood , every year the spillover moves from FB-EB and EB-FB ( only USCIS knows why ) . So if EB visa allotment of 261K is not reached this year the balance will go to FB as a spillover next year. Normally EB to FB spillover rarely happens as EB always comsumes 140K ( sometimes a couple thousand more even)

[rocketfast]

For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=64819&viewfull=1#post64819

[gcconnect]

For all practical purposes, the numbers that go from EB to FB are gone forever. The details are here:
https://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/1217-EB2-3-Predictions-(Rather-Calculations)?p=64819&viewfull=1#post64819

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.

To my understanding only unallocated FB visas can flow to EB, not unallocated EBs which already went to FB. I will look for a source for that.

[rocketfast]

This is Special case. Here all FB numbers flown to EB because unable to process due to circumstances. so if the EB numbers go back to FB and unable to process, it should come back. Am i missing anything.

The point that post is making is that, unused EBs don't make a change in total allocation numbers in FB. So for all practical purposes, total FB allocation is 226,000.

[2011Feb]

No... waiting.... Mine was sent on Oct 1st. Still waiting for receipt.
Mine is EB3 Feb 2011.

Received my receipts today. (sent on Oct 1st)

[2001USA]

Now that there are many of us filing I-485 (AOS), does anyone know how USCIS decides to prioritize processing them? Is it FIFO or do they prioritize AOS based on applicants with current FAD?

[inspired_p]

Received my receipts today. (sent on Oct 1st)

Congratulations.. how many days after the check clearing did they send you the notice if I may ask?
Currently the only indicator that I have for acceptance is that the checks have cleared.

[Moveon]

What is adding to the workload by adding a Medical. It is a form where the applicant is filling the minimal information and everything else is filled in and closed by the Doctors.
The only thing the lawyers need to do is add that sealed cover to the list of documents being sent. If we scheduled the docs appointment on time, the forms could have been handed over in a 10 days time (most cases) to the lawyers that would be time by which they can all align the paper work.

I would look at it the other way , If everyone were to send their Medicals then there will be further delays . If its not mandatory to send a doc to the USCIS then you might as well wait as sending more info delays things .
Honestly they need the Medicals only when the Final Action dates get closer and I hope they ask for them only when Final action dates are close by as Medicals can anywhere between 500-1000 dollars today . For a family of 4 that will be 4K and most companies don't pay for dependents .
In 2012 I paid $250 , in 2018 it was $550 , just for the doc to sign a few pages . My friend paid 950 last month in the Bay area.

[AceMan]

WOW. They may go like 2 to 3 months rather than one big jump for Final action dates.

2-3 months of forward movement will not ensure effective utilization of the available visas.
Eb2 has a nearly 10,000 with pending 485 for the last 8 years.

Lot of Eb3 applicants from 2009 end are already getting greened. There are no new applicants for Eb1, and 2 from ROW to use any of these numbers 3 will have limited demand that can be covered within a month or 2

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

2-3 months of forward movement will not ensure effective utilization of the available visas.
Eb2 has a nearly 10,000 with pending 485 for the last 8 years.

Lot of Eb3 applicants from 2009 end are already getting greened. There are no new applicants for Eb1, and 2 from ROW to use any of these numbers 3 will have limited demand that can be covered within a month or 2

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.

[inspired_p]

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.

This is provided USCIS/DOS does not want to keep visa numbers available for Consulate applications starting Jan 2021. If Consulates open on Jan 2021 then EB2- ROW & EB3-ROW which is current can receive more applications from outside the country. I believe they will keep some buffer for that possibility and will not move EB2-I and EB3-I on the basis of the demand vs visa availability seen currently

[incredible]

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.

Seems to be in-line with my attorney's prediction that EB2 FAD will go forward by close to 6 + months. Let's hope so.

[Zenzone]

I agree. There has to be 6 - 9 months of movement minimum for EB3. Maybe 3-4 months movement for EB2 though it would be great to have more movement to maybe even May 1, 2010 to ensure people who all filed in 2012 are greened.

To me for Eb2-I, May-2010 is an important watermark as cases until then should be largely pre-adjudicated and good to go with a click.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

This is provided USCIS/DOS does not want to keep visa numbers available for Consulate applications starting Jan 2021. If Consulates open on Jan 2021 then EB2- ROW & EB3-ROW which is current can receive more applications from outside the country. I believe they will keep some buffer for that possibility and will not move EB2-I and EB3-I on the basis of the demand vs visa availability seen currently

Consular applications are going to be so hard to predict compared to AOS because of Covid. Worldwide cases are only ramping up now so I don't know what will prompt them to open up consulates.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[chhablsa]

To me for Eb2-I, May-2010 is an important watermark as cases until then should be largely pre-adjudicated and good to go with a click.

Could it be possible (wishful thinking) that they assigned visa number from last years lot ( so they don't go waste) and just advancing dates based on the assessment of work load they can manage due to COVID? In in November VB we may see a big jump, again wishful thinking...:)

[Zenzone]

Could it be possible (wishful thinking) that they assigned visa number from last years lot ( so they don't go waste) and just advancing dates based on the assessment of work load they can manage due to COVID? In in November VB we may see a big jump, again wishful thinking...:)

I think the numbers are there this fiscal, its all about USCIS having a strategy on how to allocate them and when to do it. EB2-I cases until May-2010 are clearly the low hanging fruits that can be cleared off right away. Also, remember that interviews could be waived too for many straightforward cases due to COVID. All in all, if you have a PD within the the first half of 2010 I would say you are sitting pretty and could even get greened by the Q1 of this fiscal. By then, the pipeline for H2 of 2010 should begin taking shape too. Also, if JB wins there is a possibility that the interviews for EB GC might be made optional based on case by case. Those are the tailwinds I see that could reduce the wastage of visas by a large extent. We all know what the headwinds are so tried pointing out the brighter side possibilities here.

[AceMan]

It is really astonishing that the November bulletin is not yet released on October 28th.

[Zenzone]

It is really astonishing that the November bulletin is not yet released on October 28th.

That tells me that the filing dates will be kept the same with USCIS continuing to honor them. The delay is really not a big impact then as there are no net new cases that need to be prepared and not a lot of surprise value to it as opposed to what we saw last month.

[vsivarama]

It is really astonishing that the November bulletin is not yet released on October 28th.

I don't think you should be astonished by anything this admin throws at you. I would not be astonished if they decided to release Nov visa bulletin in Dec. Remember when a few folks got H1 approvals with backdated dates?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

If they integrate HK into the Mainland China quota for immigration purposes, they may need to carefully word that in the bulletin because trust me, lawsuits are going to be filed. It will be a fiasco if a lawsuit is filed and they have to reissue the bulletin with thousands of people already applying in the meantime. I don't think it's going to alter the numbers, but the language in the bulletin subtext could be what they are sweating out about.

[2011Feb]

No... waiting.... Mine was sent on Oct 1st. Still waiting for receipt.
Mine is EB3 Feb 2011.


Congratulations.. how many days after the check clearing did they send you the notice if I may ask?
Currently the only indicator that I have for acceptance is that the checks have cleared.

checks were cleared on 21st. So it took a week to receive the receipt after checks en cashed.

[AceMan]

That tells me that the filing dates will be kept the same with USCIS continuing to honor them. The delay is really not a big impact then as there are no net new cases that need to be prepared and not a lot of surprise value to it as opposed to what we saw last month.

The possibility of not supporting filing dates any more for the month of November?

[richie.rich]

If they integrate HK into the Mainland China quota for immigration purposes, they may need to carefully word that in the bulletin because trust me, lawsuits are going to be filed. It will be a fiasco if a lawsuit is filed and they have to reissue the bulletin with thousands of people already applying in the meantime. I don't think it's going to alter the numbers, but the language in the bulletin subtext could be what they are sweating out about.

I have a feeling that they want to wait till last minute. If they release early, Applicants will start or stop downgrading. If they release the dates tomorrow evening or Friday, flow will be normal.

[Zenzone]

The possibility of not supporting filing dates any more for the month of November?

I think USCIS will keep the filing dates and honor them in November. After all, why not for more fees when they already let ppl. apply for the 485 and associated benefits by filing in October? I don't see any practical incentive for them to stop it now. I won't be surprised if they honor filing dates in December too. However, I will be surprised if they further advance filing dates within Q1 though.

[Zenzone]

I have a feeling that they want to wait till last minute. If they release early, Applicants will start or stop downgrading. If they release the dates tomorrow evening or Friday, flow will be normal.

They clearly said this delay isn't because of the EB visa issues instead its about some language about Hong Kong and its legalities. So not sure why we still keep speculating about it.

[inspired_p]

They clearly said this delay isn't because of the EB visa issues instead its about some language about Hong Kong and its legalities. So not sure why we still keep speculating about it.

Noone has clearly states anything.. even the HK language reason is speculation. Anyways.. what else do we have other than speculating delay of visa bulletin ? Life ? Ha ha

[Moveon]

To me for Eb2-I, May-2010 is an important watermark as cases until then should be largely pre-adjudicated and good to go with a click.

how much in advance does USCIS send RFEs for the Final Action dates ? I am Dec 2009 and have not received any RFEs.
Do they need the dates to be current before sending the RFEs ?

[rabp77]

They clearly said this delay isn't because of the EB visa issues instead its about some language about Hong Kong and its legalities. So not sure why we still keep speculating about it.

Zenzone, AILA statement as I read it referred to a generic dispute with language. It did not specifically say it was with regard to HK. HK Eo was passed in July. What the language dispute was about is still not completely certain, right ? Did I miss something?

[Zenzone]

Noone has clearly states anything.. even the HK language reason is speculation. Anyways.. what else do we have other than speculating delay of visa bulletin ? Life ? Ha ha

Haha peace!

[inspired_p]

checks were cleared on 21st. So it took a week to receive the receipt after checks en cashed.

Thank you !

[iamdeb]

Just digressing away from the politics....which educational firm/agency's services do you guys recommend for Foreign Academic Equivalency Evaluation...Thanks!

[gcconnect]

Cliffs Notes from Siskind's FB video chat:

I-485 filing: Apps HAVE to be in USCIS on Oct 30 or may be rejected

Visa Bulletin Notes:

Siskind thinks pure EB3 India will use up most of the numbers (i.e. those who filed in EB3 and stayed in that queue)


Why is pure EB3 people getting more . Is this not in the order of PD. I mean whether its downgraded to EB3 or EB3 from the beginning, they should follow the PD . Am i missing something?

[inspired_p]

Why is pure EB3 people getting more . Is this not in the order of PD. I mean whether its downgraded to EB3 or EB3 from the beginning, they should follow the PD . Am i missing something?
I guess because for ‘pure’ EB3 the I-140 is approved in Oct 2020 ; all downgrades are assumed to be applied now in regular processing .
In practice downgraded EB3 already approved would be the same as ‘pure’ EB3

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Why is pure EB3 people getting more . Is this not in the order of PD. I mean whether its downgraded to EB3 or EB3 from the beginning, they should follow the PD . Am i missing something?

Sorry, not sure what he meant by that. So may need to do some digging into that.

Probably gonna be out for a couple of days to protect the house and land from the hurricane. Definitely going to lose a few trees ;-).

[Prabhas]

Just digressing away from the politics....which educational firm/agency's services do you guys recommend for Foreign Academic Equivalency Evaluation...Thanks!


Please try them...$85 for evaluation. You should get it two business days.

https://morningeval.com/

V

[monsieur]

Why is pure EB3 people getting more . Is this not in the order of PD. I mean whether its downgraded to EB3 or EB3 from the beginning, they should follow the PD . Am i missing something?

No body is getting less or more. Its about whose file is in order. They pick up files based on PD, if it has all docs 485J, valid medical etc then that person's file get approved. If its missing anything then RFE is sent. This gives an appearance that GC is being approved without any order.

[GCMirage]

Nov bulletin is out.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

Final action dates Movement for India
Eb2 3 weeks, eb3 2 months

No change in Filing dates

[inspired_p]

Nov bulletin is out.
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

Final action dates Movement for India
Eb2 3 weeks, eb3 2 months

No change in Filing dates
Disappointing.. to say the least. At least no harm done.

[GCMirage]

No communication yet from USCIS on Nov bulletin. Hopefully they will continue to honor the filing dates

[idliman]

Final action dates Movement for India
Eb2 3 weeks, eb3 2 months
No change in Filing dates
Looks like they did talk to S.Miller @ COVID ward. DF movements did not progress, following the past trend.

These movements are based on hitting the 5.2K quota for EB2I / EB3I. They agree with earlier predictions. CO is very conservative and looks like he does not want to move beyond the 5.2K numbers. A little disappointing that "rapid forward movement" is less than 1 month for EB2I.

With this rate of movement, people with PDs before Mar 2010 of EB2I may save atleast 6 months if they have readily available EB3I I-140. Once EB2I to EB3I porters or clean EB3I approvals hit the 5.2K, EB3I FA movements will stop or retrogress (before the Hail-Mary SO is applied in the last quarter).

Additional thoughts:


I want to see if CO will change his mindset and start proactively moving dates if there is a Nov upset and JB wins.
Anyone who has a chance of downgrading and getting their EAD/AP's should seriously do it without any second thoughts.
Even if some non-India consulates open in Jan 2021, that will start cutting into EB3I forward movements. Don't know how much of flood will materialize when Indian consulates open. For EB2I, the CP numbers should be balanced by people using EB3I I-140s. So EB2I should not retrogress at all.

[mesan123]

Looks like USCIs is also accepting the filling dates.. breather for few folks whose law firms still didnot send applications

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-to-file-your-adjustment-of-status-application-for-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-57

[inspired_p]

I really thought but hoped not that this would be the case.
They will keep the visa numbers available to EB3-ROW as long as they can and hope that consular processing picks up. The horizontal spillover if any will be applied at the end of the year.

Th filing dates Being open to use are a relief definitely but does that mean they have not received 5.2K EB3-I applications yet ?

[goracer]

Looks like VB is out...22sep09 eb2
01mar10 eb3

https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

[AceMan]

We now got the definition for rapid forward movement. 21 days for Eb2 I and 44 days for Eb3 I.

[idliman]

We now got the definition for rapid forward movement. 21 days for Eb2 I and 44 days for Eb3 I.
Ace, you did not like down-porting based on my past recollection. Have you already started making your move to EB3?

[EB2IndSep09]

Looks like USCIs is also accepting the filling dates.. breather for few folks whose law firms still didnot send applications

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/when-to-file-your-adjustment-of-status-application-for-family-sponsored-or-employment-based-57

And or people who are switching jobs also get a fair shot of applying AOS.

[mesan123]

And or people who are switching jobs also get a fair shot of applying AOS. that i dont know as switching jobs you might need to start from Perm stage..

[longwaitgigu]

that i dont know as switching jobs you might need to start from Perm stage..

Why I dont see bulletin on visa bulletin page?

[usvisas]

My guesstimate (hope it actually is much much better than this)

EB2 FAD will move by 2 months at the most (01NOV09) .
EB3 FAD will move to 30APR2010 at least.
EB2 FD will remain same
EB3 FD will remain same
Nov will still use filing date.


Not even close.. But guess I was the closest predictor...where is my prize ....lol

I guess - its inventory building until Q1.

[EB2IndSep09]

Why I dont see bulletin on visa bulletin page?

Some people were having issues especially who were refreshing many times from past week or so :)
Jokes apart, try with clearing cache.

[AlmostThere]

Feels like attorneys messed it up.
IF they would have filed the applications last week THEN DOS would have known about the "real demand" AND would have moved the date much aggresively.
But probably Now DOS is moving extremely conservatively.

My attorney and several other attorneys have waited till last day to start working on applications.

Again, speculating here... nothing seems true in these times.

[AceMan]

Ace, you did not like down-porting based on my past recollection. Have you already started making your move to EB3?

I never upgraded to Eb2 when I was eligible to do so in 2016 after doing my research. I was telling my Colleague who had upgraded to Eb2 that time not to do that, but the obsession of Eb2 just blinded him and many others till 2018..

Now when I see these people running back to downgrade to Eb3 I really feel pity for them. I can understand people downgrading to get EAD, but some greedy people who can file 485 in Eb2 before May 2011 trying to clog Eb3 claiming child age out and other stories.

[EB2IndSep09]

that i dont know as switching jobs you might need to start from Perm stage..

Someone switched job a year back, and PERM is going to be approved in November 2020 I meant this group of people are going to get a fair shot. Hope it makes sense.

[mesan123]

Why I dont see bulletin on visa bulletin page?


https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

[mesan123]

Someone switched job a year back, and PERM is going to be approved in November 2020 I meant this group of people are going to get a fair shot. Hope it makes sense. it does :) was confused with your initial post ..

[EB2IndSep09]

Feels like attorneys messed it up.
IF they would have filed the applications last week THEN DOS would have known about the "real demand" AND would have moved the date much aggresively.
But probably Now DOS is moving extremely conservatively.

My attorney and several other attorneys have waited till last day to start working on applications.

Again, speculating here... nothing seems true in these times.

Same here, my attorney is going to send the file tonight. It is a deliberate act from law firms especially the big ones with large volumes to keep the DOS and USCIS in dark.
I might be wrong.

[EB2IndSep09]

it does :) was confused with your initial post ..

Speaking with personal experience missed the boat in 2012 by couple of months due to the same reason and had to wait for 81/2 years to file AOS.
Or else would have received cards in Nov 2020 and now I am here still trying to push the attorney's to send the file out this month. :)

[mesan123]

I never upgraded to Eb2 when I was eligible to do so in 2016 after doing my research. I was telling my Colleague who had upgraded to Eb2 that time not to do that, but the obsession of Eb2 just blinded him and many others till 2018..

Now when I see these people running back to downgrade to Eb3 I really feel pity for them. I can understand people downgrading to get EAD, but some greedy people who can file 485 in Eb2 before May 2011 trying to clog Eb3 claiming child age out and other stories.

Just my 2 cents.. each one’s personal situations vary.. there might be genunity too.. so people will do what is best for each case.. this movement now was not guessed before this was because of covid.. this movement helped many familes

Yes EAD helps many people as it gives them another path to survive with the recent H1b changes ..

[mesan123]

Speaking with personal experience missed the boat in 2012 by couple of months due to the same reason and had to wait for 81/2 years to file AOS.
Or else would have received cards in Nov 2020 and now I am here still trying to push the attorney's to send the file out this month. :)

Sorry to hear that... hang in there... similar situation i missed the boat by moving jobs as my perm was pending for more than 10 months and took FT .. guess what it got approved after i moved nd could not file I-140 as moved the company(so missed ealry 2010 date which could have helped me get EAD in 2012) ... yes pretty long wait.. my file sent on 21st.. hoping your lawyer files your case soon

[kb2013]

My FAD has been current this month. But I haven't gotten approval yet. It will be current next month as well. Any suggestions on how to get USCIS to work on my case and have it approved quick?

[gcconnect]

Not even close.. But guess I was the closest predictor...where is my prize ....lol

I guess - its inventory building until Q1.

predictions now with November VB might change . They have inventory available for EB2 till May 2010. Searching for Rapid movement definition:confused:

[vsivarama]

I never upgraded to Eb2 when I was eligible to do so in 2016 after doing my research. I was telling my Colleague who had upgraded to Eb2 that time not to do that, but the obsession of Eb2 just blinded him and many others till 2018..

Now when I see these people running back to downgrade to Eb3 I really feel pity for them. I can understand people downgrading to get EAD, but some greedy people who can file 485 in Eb2 before May 2011 trying to clog Eb3 claiming child age out and other stories.

Child ageout is a genuine reason to downgrade the application. The number of days i-140 is being processed will be deducted from the child's age in addition to the possibility of getting GC earlier. But the rest who can file straight in EB2 need to be careful. It's a risk vs reward situation. Yes EB2 does not seem to be moving for now, but that will pick up next year. Basically it comes down to this, how much risk are you willing to introduce to your application to get GC a few months faster? I am NOT trying to scare anyone here. I for one was fully supportive of people upgrading to EB2 back in the day even though it meant my EB2 application queue would have clogged up. My rationality is simple "What if the shoe was on other foot, then how would I react?". Upgrade made sense back then and downgrade makes sense now in certain situations.

[letmesee]

I never upgraded to Eb2 when I was eligible to do so in 2016 after doing my research. I was telling my Colleague who had upgraded to Eb2 that time not to do that, but the obsession of Eb2 just blinded him and many others till 2018..

Now when I see these people running back to downgrade to Eb3 I really feel pity for them. I can understand people downgrading to get EAD, but some greedy people who can file 485 in Eb2 before May 2011 trying to clog Eb3 claiming child age out and other stories.

what's wrong in downgrading now... folks gotta do what's good for them since everything is uncertain...
good call on your part on not down grading :)

[inspired_p]

Time to start speculating December 2020 bulletin.

[AceMan]

Just my 2 cents.. each one’s personal situations vary.. there might be genunity too.. so people will do what is best for each case.. this movement now was not guessed before this was because of covid.. this movement helped many familes

Yes EAD helps many people as it gives them another path to survive with the recent H1b changes ..

People who downgraded to get EAD when they could have applied and got EAD without downgrading is the group I am referring to.

For example, Eb3 final dates moved to March 1st 2010. A person with Eb2 petition on Feb 2010 with AOS pending decided to downgrade and interfile s what I am referring to. It is absolutely legit, can get the GC faster if the dates did not retrogress, but with the experience for last 2 years, all it does is mess up Eb3 movement and no advantage to Eb2.

[inspired_p]

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.

[inspired_p]

I too didn’t have any issues with upgrade before and I do not have any issue with downgrades either. It all depends on individual risk assessment. Any legal recourse should not be frowned upon.Most people stay on H1B even after getting EAD ; so that advantage is not what most people are looking for; they want to get greened as soon as possible.
And personally having wasted 6-7 months in applying Initial PERM/ I-140 and seeing my wait increased by 10 years because of that ; I can totally get the desire to do whatever is possible to reduce the time for green card even if it’s 6-7 months only. 6-7 months are more than enough to turn the world upside down if unlucky

[incredible]

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.

Seems to have went back to Coming Soon

[incredible]

Seems to have went back to Coming Soon

Never mind. probably cached.

[pdc2014]

261k/12 months=21,791 for each month, subdivided into each EB category using 7% country quota.

EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If uscis intent is righ,150k out of 261k will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around May2011 and Sep2011 respectively by Sep 2021.

[pdc2014]

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.

261k/12 months=21,791 for each month, subdivided into each EB category using 7% country quota.

EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around May2011 and Sep2011 respectively by Sep 2021.

[Umesh1209]

Never mind. probably cached.

Visa Bulletin is release - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

EB2 FAD 22-Sep
EC3 FAD 01MAR10

[abcx13]

Visa Bulletin is release - https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/legal/visa-law0/visa-bulletin/2021/visa-bulletin-for-november-2020.html

EB2 FAD 22-Sep
EC3 FAD 01MAR10

Looks like USCIS allowing usage of FD again. :)

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/adjustment-of-status-filing-charts-from-the-visa-bulletin

[idliman]

Some people were having issues especially who were refreshing many times from past week or so :)
Jokes apart, try with clearing cache.
EB2IndSep09, I am glad to see that you are not showing your disappointment for missing FA by a few days. So "rapid movement" is 3 weeks for EB2I. The prediction in Oct VB is valid for the first quarter. So the best case scenario can we expect EB2I to be:
Dec Bulletin: 13OCT2009
Jan Bulletin: 03NOV2009

I guess EB3I will be moving at 1.5 months per bulletin and will be 01JUN2010 in Jan bulletin.

All those people supporting DT for the second term, do you really think the SO from FB to EB is going to result in GCs? With the current speed they are on course to waste a record number of GCs. I was hoping that JB presidency will use most of the SO visas. However, it is just a hypothesis. I am just imagining that the grass is greener on the other side. It may just be weeds. (sarcasm)!

[Zenzone]

EB2IndSep09, I am glad to see that you are not showing your disappointment for missing FA by a few days. So "rapid movement" is 3 weeks for EB2I. The prediction in Oct VB is valid for the first quarter. So the best case scenario can we expect EB2I to be:
Dec Bulletin: 13OCT2009
Jan Bulletin: 03NOV2009

I guess EB3I will be moving at 1.5 months per bulletin and will be 01JUN2010 in Jan bulletin.

All those people supporting DT for the second term, do you really think the SO from FB to EB is going to result in GCs? With the current speed they are on course to waste a record number of GCs. I was hoping that JB presidency will use most of the SO visas. However, it is just a hypothesis. I am just imagining that the grass is greener on the other side. It may just be weeds. (sarcasm)!

I won't assume it will only be 3 weeks per bulletin from now on. I do think the pace of this movement will pick-up steam eventually by all means. No way, they honor filing dates this far without that expected to happen. Not this admin.!

[Zenzone]

Looks like USCIS allowing usage of FD again. :)

https://www.uscis.gov/green-card/green-card-processes-and-procedures/visa-availability-priority-dates/adjustment-of-status-filing-charts-from-the-visa-bulletin

Much needed. Hopefully they honor it next month too.

[Zenzone]

Let’s hope dates don’t retrogress at all this year. If DOS is going to be this cautious there is almost zero chance of retrogression. Both FADs should reach their destined level.

I'm in your camp on this one.

[longwaitgigu]

We all should not forget
VB was set as of oct 12, so they definitely have no clue how many applications in eb2 and eb3
I guess December should see good forward movement and also they have to use 65000 gc per quarter

[vedu]

EB2IndSep09, I am glad to see that you are not showing your disappointment for missing FA by a few days. So "rapid movement" is 3 weeks for EB2I. The prediction in Oct VB is valid for the first quarter. So the best case scenario can we expect EB2I to be:
Dec Bulletin: 13OCT2009
Jan Bulletin: 03NOV2009

I guess EB3I will be moving at 1.5 months per bulletin and will be 01JUN2010 in Jan bulletin.

All those people supporting DT for the second term, do you really think the SO from FB to EB is going to result in GCs? With the current speed they are on course to waste a record number of GCs. I was hoping that JB presidency will use most of the SO visas. However, it is just a hypothesis. I am just imagining that the grass is greener on the other side. It may just be weeds. (sarcasm)!

Idliman,

This is a gem of a post! You have outlined very realistic scenarios for Dec and Jan Bulletins. And also, very balanced view of your expectation from a different immigration friendly administration with full understanding that it may just remain a dream. Let's just hope and pray that future is better than the past.

[getsaby]

I was about to reply to that, the bulletin was materialized on October 12 as mention in the footnote, wonder why they held up for almost 2 weeks.

Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: October 12, 2020


Even for the last bulletin, they did this

Department of State Publication 9514
CA/VO: September 8, 2020

[2011Feb]

Friends,

Anyone have a metrics (only guesstimate based on previous years number) about EB3 India counselor processing demand for 2009 (June to December) and 2010.
Just curious to know , how the consulate open will impact the final action date for EB3 India. Does it make EB3I to retro-gate ?

[inspired_p]

I won't assume it will only be 3 weeks per bulletin from now on. I do think the pace of this movement will pick-up steam eventually by all means. No way, they honor filing dates this far without that expected to happen. Not this admin.!

I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries

[Zenzone]

I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries

I need more data to believe in this hypothesis. Remember in September some of us were certain that this administration will NOT let ppl. to even file so much in advance and here we are! Therefore, I need a trend line of at east 4-6 month through this Fiscal to comment on the visa wastage. Right now all I see is so much uncertainty and variability with a potential of an admin. change that could be imminent. Its anybody's guess right now. Depending on whether you are a glass half full or empty person you can be living either in a false exuberance or an imminent doom world of yours.

[rabp77]

I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries

I don't think I would jump to that conclusion. At least not yet. By accepting a large number of applicants, the stage is set to approve them quickly in case visa numbers are available at the end of fy, and all processing has been completed. Slow movement initially doesn't mean it will continue to be so for the rest of fy. In the past, pace of movement has been accelerated during the fy at times. I think there is a good probability that eb2 movement can get much faster than 3weeks per month that we saw in November.

[EB2IndSep09]

EB2IndSep09, I am glad to see that you are not showing your disappointment for missing FA by a few days. So "rapid movement" is 3 weeks for EB2I. The prediction in Oct VB is valid for the first quarter. So the best case scenario can we expect EB2I to be:
Dec Bulletin: 13OCT2009
Jan Bulletin: 03NOV2009

I guess EB3I will be moving at 1.5 months per bulletin and will be 01JUN2010 in Jan bulletin.

All those people supporting DT for the second term, do you really think the SO from FB to EB is going to result in GCs? With the current speed they are on course to waste a record number of GCs. I was hoping that JB presidency will use most of the SO visas. However, it is just a hypothesis. I am just imagining that the grass is greener on the other side. It may just be weeds. (sarcasm)!

Idliman,
I am glad that I would be able to file my AOS in Oct 2020 after a long wait so no room for disappointment. Hope my lawyer sends my AOS file tonight fingers crossed.
My perspective on rapid movement is different, may be once we go back and compare to 2018 and 2019 visa bulletins, it is a rapid movement as the dates were crawling one day or two days or none bulletin to bulletin

[bookworm]

I really feel they are resisting moving FADs as much as they can As they don’t want EB-I gain to materialize. I have a feeling they are waiting to see more demand from EB-ROW which they can issue visas first.. before moving dates for retrogressed countries

Occams Razor - These are Federal Govt employees who will work like a sloth. They just dont have the processing capacity (and willingness) to move things quickly. Anecdotal evidence is the amount of time it is taking to send out receipts for new filings. If you start seeing a spurt in Card Mailed on Trackitt it will be the forward indicator that dates will move "rapidly" in subsequent VB. Till then keep refreshing the visa bulletin page:(

[suninphx]

Spec,

Is there any technical reason for this sluggish FAD movement in EB2-3I categories? I am aware of 'other' possible reasons.

[AceMan]

One interesting thing I have noticed is Eb1 India FAD moved 6 months. If it can maintain same speed for next couple of bulletins, we can expect it to be current by the end of 2nd quarter and Eb2 can see some long awaited spillover in the April 2021 bulletin.

Hopefully by that time Eb2 reaches possibly March 2010 and the spillover can propel the dates to December 2010.

If the Eb3 final dates did not reach that date by then, 3rd quarter of 2021 is going to be fun.

Oh btw I am expecting Biden to win and the Trump EO for EB interviews might be gone. It may result in the GC allocation faster.

[texas_]

Since there is no USCIS final action date mentioned, what is the Final Action Date for November 2020 for EB2 India and EB3 India ?

[suninphx]

Oh btw I am expecting Biden to win and the Trump EO for EB interviews might be gone. It may result in the GC allocation faster.

That election outcome might result in a push for FB immigration.

[vsivarama]

That election outcome might result in a push for FB immigration.

That is true. But the push mainly will be to allocate additional visas to FB by recapturing unused visa numbers. There were already quite a few bills going around which would help the doctors/essential works by granting them GCs this way. So I would not worry about FB. Dems would be shooting themselves in the foot if they touch the SO visas to EB. Politicians may be useless but not stupid.

[vedu]

Spec,

Is there any technical reason for this sluggish FAD movement in EB2-3I categories? I am aware of 'other' possible reasons.

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)

[suninphx]

Dems would be shooting themselves in the foot if they touch the SO visas to EB. Politicians may be useless but not stupid.

Not sure ! I have seen people being dems before getting GC and moving to red camp the day GC arrives :)

[suninphx]

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)

Vedu, this Is what I am thinking as well. Let's wait for Spec's realistic answer ( if he chooses to reply that is).

[Moveon]

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?

[pdc2014]

261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.

Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.

When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.

EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.

[pdc2014]

SO calculations/ predictions
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.

Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.

When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.

EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.

[pdc2014]

SO calculations/ predictions
261k/12 months=21,791 for each month available for all countries, subdivided into each EB1/2/3 category with 28.6% and then applying 7% country quota.

Vertical = EB GC SO = EB4+EB5 unused => EB1 unused => EB2 ROW unused => EB2 Most backlogged => EB3 ROW unused => EB3 Most backlogged

Horizontal= 121k SO / 12 months is 14580/month, EB 1/2/3 get 4170 visas per month 28.6% each category. Since, EB2I is most backlogged(as all countries are current) each month EB2I gets 4170 visas from FB Horizontal SO.

When EB1I gets current all VERTICAL SO will go to EB2I.

EB3I will be backlogged due to massive downgrades(after May2011 PD). With no vertical SO and less Horizontal SO in comparison with EB2I as other countries in EB3 Category will share FB SO as other countries does have EB3 backlog.

Nov visa Bulletin is just clearing EB1I and EB1C backlog. SO or rapid movement will take effect and be allocated to EB2I in coming months.

If Uscis intent is right, 150k out of 261k visas will be allocated to EBI1/2/3 by Sep2021. Prediction EB2/3 will be around Dec 2012 and Sep 2011 respectively by Sep 2021.

[AceMan]

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?

The only rapid movement for India was EB1. June 2018 inventory shows 1006 pending 485 EB2 I applications for September 2009. It appears to follow the pattern of processing around 700 applicants this bulletin instead of around 1700 processed for India in October. We have about 8000 more applicants in EB2 till May 2010 and if they average around 1000 a month it takes till the end of 3rd quarter to clear May 2010.

The good movement for Eb2 I in later half of 2021 needs EB1 India to clear within next 2-3 bulletins, COVID situation ensures the travel ban continue for another quarter. The downgrade to EB3 will make an impact only for Eb2 applicants beyond May 2011.

[Zenzone]

I suppose everyone is pissed off with the Bulletin, especially the EB2-I folks . For EB2 , if we assume a backlog of ~1.5K GCs per month until April 30th 2010 , we will have about 15K GCs that they will need to issue to clear the 2012 backlog.
So with 30K extra green cards in just EB2 and moving dates by just 3 weeks , they will certainly waste GCs again as it won't go past April 2010 . This is just another stalling tactic by USCIS to prevent India from getting GCs. Who ever gets elected is not going to lift a finger for us. The 120K SO is an unintended consequence (so lets not praise anyone) and looks like they doing everything to prevent the issuance of this SO, or the most of it .

BTW for the last fiscal did they issue 144K GCs or did they waste 20K as reported ?

I don't understand your extreme pessimism here. The filing dates were never moved this aggressively in the past decade. This is already unprecedented, I would give a couple more months before doom scrolling here.

[Zenzone]

The only rapid movement for India was EB1. June 2018 inventory shows 1006 pending 485 EB2 I applications for September 2009. It appears to follow the pattern of processing around 700 applicants this bulletin instead of around 1700 processed for India in October. We have about 8000 more applicants in EB2 till May 2010 and if they average around 1000 a month it takes till the end of 3rd quarter to clear May 2010.

The good movement for Eb2 I in later half of 2021 needs EB1 India to clear within next 2-3 bulletins, COVID situation ensures the travel ban continue for another quarter. The downgrade to EB3 will make an impact only for Eb2 applicants beyond May 2011.

Downgrades will happen across the board as and when EB3 FAD starts chugging forward regardless of the PD ranges.

[Zenzone]

It is my understanding that they will follow the 7% rule on the total GCs available this year (including the additional quota we received from FB) for the first three quarters as is the rule. Then in the last quarter, they will give all unused visas to backlogged countries. It may be too late by then resulting in major loss of visas. That is the reason I see EB2I moving by only 1-2 months per month and EB3I moving by 2-3 months per month for the first three quarters followed by larger movements in the last quarter.

Spec can certainly provide more surgical analysis of this and he always loves to explain the pessimistic scenarios in detail!;)

That's not a rule. Its been a general practice with exceptions.

[Zenzone]

One interesting thing I have noticed is Eb1 India FAD moved 6 months. If it can maintain same speed for next couple of bulletins, we can expect it to be current by the end of 2nd quarter and Eb2 can see some long awaited spillover in the April 2021 bulletin.

Hopefully by that time Eb2 reaches possibly March 2010 and the spillover can propel the dates to December 2010.

If the Eb3 final dates did not reach that date by then, 3rd quarter of 2021 is going to be fun.

Oh btw I am expecting Biden to win and the Trump EO for EB interviews might be gone. It may result in the GC allocation faster.

All fair points and by mid 2021 lotsa Q1 filers (like us) would be mostly done with admin. processing of adjudications and could be click away when the visas become available (assuming no interviews by then). Obviously painting an optimistic scenario here.