Unofficial PERM Certifications As At End Of Q2 FY2018

[Spectator]

Country ------- Q1 ------- Q2 ------ Total ----- %
CHINA -------- 1,765 ---- 2,268 ---- 4,034 --- 11.26%
INDIA -------- 8,006 ---- 9,913 --- 17,921 --- 50.01%
MEXICO --------- 427 ------ 619 ---- 1,046 ---- 2.92%
PHILIPPINES ---- 251 ------ 241 ------ 492 ---- 1.37%
ROW ---------- 5,476 ---- 6,862 --- 12,339 --- 34.44%

Grand Total - 15,925 --- 19,907 --- 35,832 -- 100.00%


As at End Of Q2
Country/Group - FY2018 ---- FY2017 ---- FY2016 ---- FY2015 ---- FY2014
CHINA ---------- 4,034 ----- 4,126 ----- 5,054 ----- 3,068 ----- 1,829
INDIA --------- 17,921 ---- 24,556 ---- 30,982 ---- 21,718 ---- 14,522
MEXICO --------- 1,046 ----- 1,011 ----- 1,104 ------- 678 ------- 602
PHILIPPINES ------ 492 ------- 666 ----- 1,045 ------- 648 ------- 684
ROW ----------- 12,339 ---- 14,349 ---- 17,871 ---- 10,233 ----- 8,535

Grand Total --- 35,832 ---- 44,708 ---- 56,056 ---- 36,345 ---- 26,172

[suninphx]

Thanks Spec! So about ~13% . reduction in EB-ROW... not sure what it translates to in terms of 485s.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec! So about ~13% . reduction in EB-ROW... not sure what it translates to in terms of 485s.

suninphx,

Remember that EB2-ROW has retrogressed for the final 2 months of the FY for the last 2 years.

At the current approval rate on Trackitt, EB2-ROW can reach last year's total over the full 12 months.

It's not clear yet how the new interview requirement may eventually affect EB2-ROW.

To date, USCIS appears to have been able to approve a larger number of older NIW cases that have not required an interview. Currently, they represent ~40% of EB2-ROW approvals on Trackitt, compared to a normal rate of ~24%.

It's possible that the rate of EB2-ROW approvals will eventually slow as older cases are exhausted. On the other hand, the longer the interview program is in place, the better organized it will be and the more cases that will be processed.

Overall, at the moment, I think that any horizontal SO from EB2-ROW will be on the lower side. That can change in the final 6 months of the year

[suninphx]

suninphx,

Remember that EB2-ROW has retrogressed for the final 2 months of the FY for the last 2 years.

At the current approval rate on Trackitt, EB2-ROW can reach last year's total over the full 12 months.

It's not clear yet how the new interview requirement may eventually affect EB2-ROW.

To date, USCIS appears to have been able to approve a larger number of older NIW cases that have not required an interview. Currently, they represent ~40% of EB2-ROW approvals on Trackitt, compared to a normal rate of ~24%.

It's possible that the rate of EB2-ROW approvals will eventually slow as older cases are exhausted. On the other hand, the longer the interview program is in place, the better organized it will be and the more cases that will be processed.

Overall, at the moment, I think that any horizontal SO from EB2-ROW will be on the lower side. That can change in the final 6 months of the year

Thanks for the all great insight Spec.
Let's see how it plays out. Wondering if late EB3I movement was deliberate one.

[imdeng]

Thanks Spec for compiling these numbers.

Overall ROW PERM volumes are high enough that any horizontal spillover in EB2 seems like a pipe dream at this point. The current hostile climate to immigrant hiring is not showing up in the data as yet.