Bills, Rules & Politics

[abcx13]

AILA came out with it's opposition to S.386 (https://www.aila.org/advo-media/issues/all/featured-issue-legislation-impacting-per-country).

They are two faced ass**les.


AILA cannot support legislation that places additional burdens on those who are already waiting
in the immigrant visa backlog and that would extend the risk of children aging out and keeping
families in limbo for longer.

What about the thousands of Indian kids who are aging out?!

[qesehmk]

AILA's position is inhumane and they deserve to be called out by name. Not to mention their true position is simply to do their clients' bidding.

AILA should know very well that "chronic" part of this backlog entirely consists of people of Indian origin. So the kids at risk of aging out are almost exclusively Indians. Then by their own position they should support this bill which will reduce the risk. Perhaps some of you can start writing letters to AILA and explain to them that the kids at risk are 90%+ indian kids.

BTW - those doing advocacy have you guys considered adding a provision for aging out children to exempt them from aging out? If it is not too late, it will be a good idea to add it.

[gs1968]

They are two faced ass**les.



What about the thousands of Indian kids who are aging out?!

To abcx13
I have always believed that a fix could be done by Congress for the children aging out by amending the current CSPA. There is a lot of sympathy for these children in both chambers and across the aisle.Maybe if this was done then the proponents of country cap removal legislation would lose a significant bargaining chip which would decrease leverage for larger reform

[FarAwayfromGC]

They are two faced ass**les.



What about the thousands of Indian kids who are aging out?!

Most of these AILA members are of Indian Origin - Shame !

[FarAwayfromGC]

We should start a campaign by mailing a letter to them condemning their stand (one letter per person per day for 30 days cost approx $18/-) and on Twitter against this AILA , .... I am starting with one today. Who is with me ?

[Immigo]

Meanwhile - bill to give access to E3 visas to Irish passed the house ( https://www.irishcentral.com/news/irish-access-e3-visa )

[idliman]

With the full attention of the world on COVID-19, We can pause the discussion on S386 and Senator Dick. Changing the topic a bit: Do you think legal immigrants are eligible for the COVID-19 Stimulus payout money? From what I read so far, income limits are $75K/$150K (Individual/MFJ) limits and then they start phasing out.

[monsieur]

Back in 2008 when $600 check went out, it was sent by IRS and you don't have to file/claim anything. Folks whose return had ITIN (i.e of Wife or dependent) they didn't received it. This time 2018 will be used as base yr for determination of income. If same process/procedure is followed then does it violate new govt charge rules for immigrants

Too many questions and very little in details. Maybe wait and watch and see how things plays out.

[NJMavarick]

With the full attention of the world on COVID-19, We can pause the discussion on S386 and Senator Dick. Changing the topic a bit: Do you think legal immigrants are eligible for the COVID-19 Stimulus payout money? From what I read so far, income limits are $75K/$150K (Individual/MFJ) limits and then they start phasing out.

I just got the money directly credited to my account so Yes!

[mar2010er]

Merit based immigration is a no-brainer both parties agree in principle. This is like a desert everyone would enjoy. However, historically, both parties have their partisan unpalatable goodies they want to bundle up with this desert, which makes the whole package unsavory to the other side. Because it is such an easy target, it's always been used as a carrot. This will continue to be a carrot for a long long time, as there is no harm to citizens, only timid immigrants (with no voice) are being played.
They need a huge backlog of EB immigrants to project shift to merit based immigration. Therefore, backlog has been necessary.

[monsieur]

Merit based immigration is a no-brainer both parties agree in principle. This is like a desert everyone would enjoy. However, historically, both parties have their partisan unpalatable goodies they want to bundle up with this desert, which makes the whole package unsavory to the other side. Because it is such an easy target, it's always been used as a carrot. This will continue to be a carrot for a long long time, as there is no harm to citizens, only timid immigrants (with no voice) are being played.
They need a huge backlog of EB immigrants to project shift to merit based immigration. Therefore, backlog has been necessary.

Its vote bank politics. As of now, Latinos and Hispanics are 2nd biggest ethinic grp in US and also is primary beneficiary of immigration. This grp primarily supports Dems in block. Due to this, Dem supports family based immigration. Where as Reps are mostly supported by business community which likes cheap labor and tax cuts. Dems are OK of increasing pie where as Reps wants to rebalance it. Thus the status quo.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219#PST045219

[shaks2020]

Its vote bank politics. As of now, Latinos and Hispanics are 2nd biggest ethinic grp in US and also is primary beneficiary of immigration. This grp primarily supports Dems in block. Due to this, Dem supports family based immigration. Where as Reps are mostly supported by business community which likes cheap labor and tax cuts. Dems are OK of increasing pie where as Reps wants to rebalance it. Thus the status quo.

https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219#PST045219

Although this sentiment has been touted forever, I must disagree. There was some truth to this decades ago but I don't think "vote bank politics" is the real reason for the dem/Rep split that you speak of. Firstly democrats or republicans can NOT be segregated strictly in these buckets. It is more complicated than what you make of it. For eg There are many large corporations - Amazon/googles etc that do not support a Republican govt and there are many small business that have been democratic their whole life. I feel the dem/rep split is ideological in nature. I know a lot of Koren businesses that will always vote Republican. A lot of Portuguese on the other hand will vote democratic. Evangelicals will almost always vote Republican. Young people, African origin, union workers almost always demorcatic. Unfortunately not everyone votes here and that is a problem.

Another eg - I am pretty sure if the "family based immigrating" were mainly refugees say from Africa BUT with the further condition that all of them were channeled through a missionary agency, I can bet the evangelical base of the Rep party would welcome them with open arms. Now, that may very well end up with more *votes* cast to the Republicans but I don't think that is the primary reason why Republicans base welcomed them in the first place. Similarly when Pres Obama or the dems wanted the syrian refugees last time around, I don't think they were thinking of the future voter in mind and rather just following what countries like Germany did or what US historically did to asylum seekers - give them asylum!

My 2 cents.
Shaks

[qesehmk]

Although this sentiment has been touted forever, I must disagree. There was some truth to this decades ago but I don't think "vote bank politics" is the real reason for the dem/Rep split that you speak of. Firstly democrats or republicans can NOT be segregated strictly in these buckets. It is more complicated than what you make of it. For eg There are many large corporations - Amazon/googles etc that do not support a Republican govt and there are many small business that have been democratic their whole life. I feel the dem/rep split is ideological in nature. I know a lot of Koren businesses that will always vote Republican. A lot of Portuguese on the other hand will vote democratic. Evangelicals will almost always vote Republican. Young people, African origin, union workers almost always demorcatic. Unfortunately not everyone votes here and that is a problem.

Another eg - I am pretty sure if the "family based immigrating" were mainly refugees say from Africa BUT with the further condition that all of them were channeled through a missionary agency, I can bet the evangelical base of the Rep party would welcome them with open arms. Now, that may very well end up with more *votes* cast to the Republicans but I don't think that is the primary reason why Republicans base welcomed them in the first place. Similarly when Pres Obama or the dems wanted the syrian refugees last time around, I don't think they were thinking of the future voter in mind and rather just following what countries like Germany did or what US historically did to asylum seekers - give them asylum!

My 2 cents.
Shaks

Shaks excellent post and welcome to blog. I will only comment on syrian refugees. Those asylums are geopolitical in nature rather than humanitarian. e.g. those people that come to US from iraq and syria are the collaborators e.g. translators or informants or even "fighters". Not to say pure humanitarian immigration hasn't been there. But I haven't observed it lately.

[shaks2020]

Shaks excellent post and welcome to blog. I will only comment on syrian refugees. Those asylums are geopolitical in nature rather than humanitarian. e.g. those people that come to US from iraq and syria are the collaborators e.g. translators or informants or even "fighters". Not to say pure humanitarian immigration hasn't been there. But I haven't observed it lately.

Thanks Q for welcoming me! I have been a silent spectator for far too long. Although, I may run the risk of derailing this excellent thread on EB analysis, I just feel that immigration whether from Syria or elsewhere is always a combination of geo politics (like you rightly pointed out) and local lobbying. I can go on about how countries such as Korea, Israel and many others benefit from strong lobbying and treated differently regardless of geo political perception. My biggest gripe with naturalized Indian Americans especially the ones with corporate power is that none of them have publicly taken a stance on how H1B has helped them personally and change the public perception of local Americans in general. Also, none of them have highlighted how broken and discriminatory the GC process is for Indian born immigrants. Sadly, I have given up hope (EB2 June 2010) and like many members here in this forum do not believe that halting immigration for a couple of months will accidentally move the EB2/EB3 for us Indians. Even if the damn line moves, I find it deplorable that we have to rely upon pandemics to provide us with legitimate relief! Don't you or others here feel so ?

[vsivarama]

Thanks Q for welcoming me! I have been a silent spectator for far too long. Although, I may run the risk of derailing this excellent thread on EB analysis, I just feel that immigration whether from Syria or elsewhere is always a combination of geo politics (like you rightly pointed out) and local lobbying. I can go on about how countries such as Korea, Israel and many others benefit from strong lobbying and treated differently regardless of geo political perception. My biggest gripe with naturalized Indian Americans especially the ones with corporate power is that none of them have publicly taken a stance on how H1B has helped them personally and change the public perception of local Americans in general. Also, none of them have highlighted how broken and discriminatory the GC process is for Indian born immigrants. Sadly, I have given up hope (EB2 June 2010) and like many members here in this forum do not believe that halting immigration for a couple of months will accidentally move the EB2/EB3 for us Indians. Even if the damn line moves, I find it deplorable that we have to rely upon pandemics to provide us with legitimate relief! Don't you or others here feel so ?

Shaks2020 - This has always been my struggle while waiting in the queue. While I would be glad if the queue moved for EB-I but at this point I don't think most of the people in this forum are even hoping for a GC. They would be happy to get an EAD and wait a few more years. At least that's the boat I am in. This is a cruel game being played on hapless immigrants by pitting them against each other. No one should be placed in a position where they are rooting for other's misfortune so that they may get some much needed relief. I totally agree!

[monsieur]

@shaks202 - Welcome to board; I am exactly as same boat as you with Aug-2020 as priority date. Always been to EB2 but with recent job switch company lawyers forcing me to file EB3.

Yes, its a complex matter and as you mentioned there are outliers. If there are no outliers things will be easy to automate or predict. But that has always been the case. Big corporation says one thing but they do lobby for low taxes or try to take advantage of every loophole.

As for naturalized Indians - thats one of the reason of backlog. Many apply for GC for their parents (can't blame them) and that in turn dried up FB spillover. All in all, EB-I is stuck in vicious cycle of its own success...

[EB32010]

https://mobile.twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1255935747837833217?s=08

Can someone explain to me what is GC recapture?

[imdeng]

We have a new item to discuss (please contain any hope or enthusiasm - remember how many times you all have been disappointed already).

The Healthcare Workforce Resilience Act. The link below has the actual PDF of bill text. It is co-sponsored by two Ds and two Rs. In the current Covid goodwill towards healthcare, this might have a chance.

https://www.aila.org/advo-media/whats-happening-in-congress/pending-legislation/senate-bill-the-healthcare-workforce-resilience

[abcx13]

Oh, this would be good if it passes! But I hope they don't cut the other GCs proportionately!

[EB22010Dec]

Oh, this would be good if it passes! But I hope they don't cut the other GCs proportionately!

Why is this good for people who are not doctors ?

[qesehmk]

Why is this good for people who are not doctors ?
Because this doesn't cut into existing numbers and creates new numbers. And then only gives 40K to doctors and nurses (thus effectively allows use by other categories).

If later on they prevent use by other categories, at the very least this does not cut into current quota. Rather it at least removes the backlogged healthcare backlogged folks (which is quite small in my opinion).

[idliman]

We have a new item to discuss (please contain any hope or enthusiasm - remember how many times you all have been disappointed already).

The Healthcare Workforce Resilience Act. The link below has the actual PDF of bill text. It is co-sponsored by two Ds and two Rs. In the current Covid goodwill towards healthcare, this might have a chance.

https://www.aila.org/advo-media/whats-happening-in-congress/pending-legislation/senate-bill-the-healthcare-workforce-resilience
I would feel better if Tom Cotton is a sponsor. I will wait to hear the arguments from Stephen Miller’s right wing friends.

[eaglenow]

As for naturalized Indians - thats one of the reason of backlog. Many apply for GC for their parents (can't blame them) and that in turn dried up FB spillover. All in all, EB-I is stuck in vicious cycle of its own success...

Parents of citizens come under immediate relatives and as such are not subjected to cap nor consume FB numbers. So at least this category does not reduce the FB spillover.

[eaglenow]

https://mobile.twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1255935747837833217?s=08

Can someone explain to me what is GC recapture?

If there are unused numbers in EB, they are added to next fiscal year’s FB and vice-versa. There can be unused numbers due to slow processing of agencies. The way the law is written, when numbers flow from EB to FB, it is kinda weird in that, there is a minimum of 226k added to FB. So regardless of any number, from 0 to 140k, spills over from EB flows to FB, the count for next year will be only 226k. So these numbers are essentially “lost”. This recapture is to reuse those numbers.

Anyway, this bill is going nowhere. It’s just for optics for senators, lobbyists and orgs to show that they are doing something. Regardless of what we call it, this is considered increasing visa numbers by the anti immigrant lobby and there are many republican senators opposed to increasing even 1 GC number. They will allow it only if it is offset on the family side, which dems won’t allow unless DACA and undocumented are legalized, which Republicans wont allow etc. that’s where CIR comes in, which is supposed to revamp the whole immigration, which will never get done in the current partisan climate. So the can is kicked down the road.

This is a carrot to show the docs and nurses that the AMA, nursing and doc lobby and senators are doing something for them. Nursing is another big lobby with exploitative employers, worse than even predatory IT bodyshops. Nursing does not require any extensive study or degree and is based on certification course for 2 years. This can very well be taken up by US citizens, but the nurse staffing companies prefer to get nurses from outside as there is a whole industry based on that. In fact nursing employees do not qualify for H1-B or other current temp work visa. So they have to be sponsored for GC directly from outside, which is done on a contract basis.

[imdeng]

This also allows for family/dependents - so the net number might be higher than 80K (assuming 1+ dependent). I doubt though whether there are 25K AOS candidates for Nurses. It feels like 15K for Doctors should be fine. Another good thing here is that the proposal is for issuance of visas in order of PD - so super backlogged countries should have a better outcome.


Because this doesn't cut into existing numbers and creates new numbers. And then only gives 40K to doctors and nurses (thus effectively allows use by other categories).

If later on they prevent use by other categories, at the very least this does not cut into current quota. Rather it at least removes the backlogged healthcare backlogged folks (which is quite small in my opinion).

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I want to get off the pessimistic train for a bit :) and looking for analysis on what will be the impact of these 40k visas being available for Medical Personnel?

Reading this: https://www.aila.org/advo-media/press-releases/2020/aila-supports-the-healthcare-workforce-resilience,

I understand the 40k visas comping from recapture process. But any clue as to what do they mean by the families of those 40k applicants not counting toward the limit? Are they going to be getting 'free' visas tied to the principal applicant or are going to get some from spillover?

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Summary of the proposed bill from G Siskind:

http://www.visalaw.com/siskind-summary-healthcare-workforce-resilience-act-may-1-2020/

[monsieur]

Anybody from EB who gets their GC outside of 140K limit is good in my books. Thats thining queue which will help in spillover. This bill talks abt getting its visa via recapture good for them and I will root for them to pass.

Just my 0.02 cents

[skpanda]

What happens to the unused recaptured Visa nbrs? Say recapture was 500k. Bill says 40k + family nbrs will be deducted from the total nbr. Say 100k was reduced. What happens to the rest of 400? No language in the bill to say what will happen to those.

[eaglenow]

What happens to the unused recaptured Visa nbrs? Say recapture was 500k. Bill says 40k + family nbrs will be deducted from the total nbr. Say 100k was reduced. What happens to the rest of 400? No language in the bill to say what will happen to those.
Until we see the legal language we won’t know. Based on what has come out in summaries, they are reserving 40k for docs and nurses. Their spouses and children will take numbers from remaining recaptured visas. There is no explicit language for the rest. Either it goes to others in backlog or they are not recaptured to begin with or the numbers are wasted.

Now you see why this bill won’t fly. Essentially they are trying to increase GC numbers, which republicans will want to offset from family. You know how the rest will go.

[qesehmk]

This also allows for family/dependents - so the net number might be higher than 80K (assuming 1+ dependent). I doubt though whether there are 25K AOS candidates for Nurses. It feels like 15K for Doctors should be fine. Another good thing here is that the proposal is for issuance of visas in order of PD - so super backlogged countries should have a better outcome.

I just checked imdeng. It seems to me 40K is the total for primary and dependents. But I may be wrong. Perhaps somebody can confirm their understanding too.

[imdeng]

I just checked imdeng. It seems to me 40K is the total for primary and dependents. But I may be wrong. Perhaps somebody can confirm their understanding too.

I might be mis-reading. I was looking at the paragraph below and assigning meaning to the term "unreserved". To me it meant - not part of the 40K reserved visas for nurses and physicians. I might (and think likely am) be wrong.

‘‘(C) FAMILY MEMBERS.—
11 ‘‘(i) IN GENERAL.—Family members
12 described in section 203(d) of the Immi13 gration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
14 1153(d)) who are accompanying or fol15 lowing to join a principal beneficiary seek16 ing admission under this subsection shall
17 be entitled to an unreserved visa in the
18 same status and in the same order of con19 sideration as such principal beneficiary.

[qesehmk]

I might be mis-reading. I was looking at the paragraph below and assigning meaning to the term "unreserved". To me it meant - not part of the 40K reserved visas for nurses and physicians. I might (and think likely am) be wrong.

‘‘(C) FAMILY MEMBERS.—
11 ‘‘(i) IN GENERAL.—Family members
12 described in section 203(d) of the Immi13 gration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
14 1153(d)) who are accompanying or fol15 lowing to join a principal beneficiary seek16 ing admission under this subsection shall
17 be entitled to an unreserved visa in the
18 same status and in the same order of con19 sideration as such principal beneficiary.

I must say these bills are very hard to read. So I am not 100% sure either. But to me this section C is saying - Dependents get allocated visas through the 40K quota rather than the usual EB quota (because that would complicate the picture where primary is going through this new quota and dependent is not).

[qesehmk]

I might be mis-reading. I was looking at the paragraph below and assigning meaning to the term "unreserved". To me it meant - not part of the 40K reserved visas for nurses and physicians. I might (and think likely am) be wrong.

‘‘(C) FAMILY MEMBERS.—
11 ‘‘(i) IN GENERAL.—Family members
12 described in section 203(d) of the Immi13 gration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C.
14 1153(d)) who are accompanying or fol15 lowing to join a principal beneficiary seek16 ing admission under this subsection shall
17 be entitled to an unreserved visa in the
18 same status and in the same order of con19 sideration as such principal beneficiary.

You are correct imdeng. After carefully reading the bill I found this explicite verbiage that says that family numbers are not to be counted against the 40K.

On page 5 -
Visas described in clause (i)— ‘‘(I) shall be made available from the pool of recaptured unused immigrant visas calculated under subpara-1graph (A); and ‘‘(II) shall not be counted against the total number of immigrant visas reserved for professional nurses and physicians under paragraph (2).


Reserved is 40k of recaptured, unreserved is either from remaining recaptured or from regular eb, most probably the former. Need to read the full text to confirm.

eagle - yes you are correct.

[oraclept]

Thanks q. On April 23 or so. Trump signed eo which mentioned about reviewing non immigrants visas in 30 days.

[Zenzone]

Thanks q. On April 23 or so. Trump signed eo which mentioned about reviewing non immigrants visas in 30 days.

Yes. But remember he also had an EO called "Buy American and Hire American" that has been implemented all along. I heard Chad Wolf in an interview saying many such rules are already in works for non-immigrant visas. I presume he was referring to the proposed rules published in the latest USCIS/DHS rulemaking agenda for this spring. Bottomline, things are already in works. Materiality of these are still an unknown! Also remember until consulates abroad are shut there are no visas issued as such across the board. That said, additional proclamation saying don't issue non-immigrant visas after the consulates are open is quite possible.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Yes. But remember he also had an EO called "Buy American and Hire American" that has been implemented all along. I heard Chad Wolf in an interview saying many such rules are already in works for non-immigrant visas. I presume he was referring to the proposed rules published in the latest USCIS/DHS rulemaking agenda for this spring. Bottomline, things are already in works. Materiality of these are still an unknown! Also remember until consulates abroad are shut there are no visas issued as such across the board. That said, additional proclamation saying don't issue non-immigrant visas after the consulates are open is quite possible.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/05/07/immigration-review-could-lead-to-new-h-1b-visa-restrictions/#684096c54513

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=1358

https://twitter.com/Lancegooden/status/1258404157972795392

All these are just posturing because the House will likely strike down these bills but Trump can likely unilaterally keep extending the immigration bans until Satan Miller is satisfied.

[qesehmk]

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=1358

https://twitter.com/Lancegooden/status/1258404157972795392

All these are just posturing because the House will likely strike down these bills but Trump can likely unilaterally keep extending the immigration bans until Satan Miller is satisfied.

Thank you. Good information. I have a fear that this is active resistance rather than posturing.

Unless courts strike it down the ban will extend and broaden to other categories.

p.s. - If you read history - every single anarchist fastist terrorist person wrote it down long before what he was going to do. We fail to heed these signs and think this is empty rhetoric. Mark my words - they are going to start nibbling at H1B. The only reason it is not must be because there must be intense pressure from tech companies to not touch it.

[Zenzone]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/05/07/immigration-review-could-lead-to-new-h-1b-visa-restrictions/#684096c54513

Yes...Saw this already. There is NOTHING new other than restating rejection rates and denials and RFEs statistics and some speculation around what else could come up. Show me something that's net new. Also, here is another news for you -https://www.am22tech.com/h4-ead-news-termination/

[Zenzone]

https://www.cotton.senate.gov/?p=press_release&id=1358

https://twitter.com/Lancegooden/status/1258404157972795392

All these are just posturing because the House will likely strike down these bills but Trump can likely unilaterally keep extending the immigration bans until Satan Miller is satisfied.

Thanks for the share.

...Likewise, there is no reason why unemployed Americans and recent college graduates should have to compete in such a limited job market against an influx of additional H-1B workers, most of whom work in business, technology, or STEM fields.......Temporarily suspending the issuance of new H-1B visas would also protect the hundreds of thousands of H-1B workers and their families already working in the United States-workers who could otherwise be subject to deportation if they are laid off for more than 60 days. Of course, appropriate exceptions could also be crafted to the H-1B program suspension to allow for doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals who wish to come to the United States to assist in combating the coronavirus pandemic....best part in their letter ;)

[qesehmk]

Recent college graduates and H1Bs do not compete for the same jobs. H1Bs are skilled people. But yes a genuine argument may exist for experienced laid off Americans. The reality is - the kind of work H1Bs do is so specialized that it will materially and negatively affect those industries. The department of labor and USCIS are not doing any favor to Indians by giving them H1s. The Indian H1s do provide liquidity to labor market in tech sector. Same is true with mexican H2 workers.

Trump already said H2 will continue. As much as he would like to do away with H1, I do think it is not easy. His administration will certainly take steps to curtain. The wise thing for them to do would be to simply let the H1 die by attrition and curtail new H1. My guess is that is exactly what they will do in near future.

Thanks for the share.

...Likewise, there is no reason why unemployed Americans and recent college graduates should have to compete in such a limited job market against an influx of additional H-1B workers, most of whom work in business, technology, or STEM fields.......Temporarily suspending the issuance of new H-1B visas would also protect the hundreds of thousands of H-1B workers and their families already working in the United States-workers who could otherwise be subject to deportation if they are laid off for more than 60 days. Of course, appropriate exceptions could also be crafted to the H-1B program suspension to allow for doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals who wish to come to the United States to assist in combating the coronavirus pandemic....best part in their letter ;)

[Zenzone]

Thank you. Good information. I have a fear that this is active resistance rather than posturing.

Unless courts strike it down the ban will extend and broaden to other categories.

p.s. - If you read history - every single anarchist fastist terrorist person wrote it down long before what he was going to do. We fail to heed these signs and think this is empty rhetoric. Mark my words - they are going to start nibbling at H1B. The only reason it is not must be because there must be intense pressure from tech companies to not touch it.


Yes. The active resistance has been there since Apr 22nd. I agree there will be something done to please the base. But its an interesting twist in DHS's today's filing on the H4 EAD litigation. I'm confused...so to say!

[Zenzone]

Recent college graduates and H1Bs do not compete for the same jobs. H1Bs are skilled people. But yes a genuine argument may exist for experienced laid off Americans. The reality is - the kind of work H1Bs do is so specialized that it will materially and negatively affect those industries. The department of labor and USCIS are not doing any favor to Indians by giving them H1s. The Indian H1s do provide liquidity to labor market in tech sector. Same is true with mexican H2 workers.

Trump already said H2 will continue. As much as he would like to do away with H1, I do think it is not easy. His administration will certainly take steps to curtain. The wise thing for them to do would be to simply let the H1 die by attrition and curtail new H1. My guess is that is exactly what they will do in near future.

Yes. Possible. But this excerpt below is something I copied and pasted from Tom Cotton's letter as they argue that a ban on new h1bs will also protect existing h1b workers already in the country so was sharing with a lil chuckle -

Likewise, there is no reason why unemployed Americans and recent college graduates should have to compete in such a limited job market against an influx of additional H-1B workers, most of whom work in business, technology, or STEM fields.......Temporarily suspending the issuance of new H-1B visas would also protect the hundreds of thousands of H-1B workers and their families already working in the United States-workers who could otherwise be subject to deportation if they are laid off for more than 60 days. Of course, appropriate exceptions could also be crafted to the H-1B program suspension to allow for doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals who wish to come to the United States to assist in combating the coronavirus pandemic.

[qesehmk]

Yes. Possible. But this excerpt below is something I copied and pasted from Tom Cotton's letter as they argue that a ban on new h1bs will also protect existing h1b workers already in the country so was sharing with a lil chuckle -

Likewise, there is no reason why unemployed Americans and recent college graduates should have to compete in such a limited job market against an influx of additional H-1B workers, most of whom work in business, technology, or STEM fields.......Temporarily suspending the issuance of new H-1B visas would also protect the hundreds of thousands of H-1B workers and their families already working in the United States-workers who could otherwise be subject to deportation if they are laid off for more than 60 days. Of course, appropriate exceptions could also be crafted to the H-1B program suspension to allow for doctors, nurses, and other healthcare professionals who wish to come to the United States to assist in combating the coronavirus pandemic.

That's wolf in sheep's clothing for you. You can believe his argument to your own detriment. :)

[NJMavarick]

Thanks for your analysis. FB spillover to EB catagory is congress mandated law right? also as per this lawyer tweet, "26,000 green cards a month will move over to the employment based system, in October of this year"

https://twitter.com/wstock215/status/1253264588029779969?s=20

I would read that tweet with a pinch of salt. FB to EB spill over is a rule that has been followed but it all depends upon the Admin. However, as Q mentioned, the admin will be passive in their approach and spill over will happen. How much? I estimate between 50-100K. The ban will be extended for sure leading to an increase in spill over numbers.

I am cautiously optimistic.

[excalibur123]

That's wolf in sheep's clothing for you. You can believe his argument to your own detriment. :)

You are judging him too harshly. Any concrete reasons for that?

I find him quite logical with most of the things.

[qesehmk]

You are judging him too harshly. Any concrete reasons for that?

I find him quite logical with most of the things.
How many H1B are hired to replace existing H1B? It almost never happens. 0.1% perhaps? So asking to stop issuing H1B to protect existing H1Bs is disingenuous.

Secondly he raises the 60 day window to let the base know that that's what's possible. But then he doesn't ask for a provision that says if an H1B is laid off due to COVID suspend such deportation.

[oraclept]

Q. in normal cases . no one would care. I think there is lot of talent pool sitting at home. Real tech people in affected industries are laid off. most of tech people coming to work in IT. doesnt really posses rare skill set. with quick training on board.. talent pool siting at home in US will work IMO. getting another high paid 100k h1b/l1 will not help the country which is already struggling with 30 M unemployment

[qesehmk]

Q. in normal cases . no one would care. I think there is lot of talent pool sitting at home. Real tech people in affected industries are laid off. most of tech people coming to work in IT. doesnt really posses rare skill set. with quick training on board.. talent pool siting at home in US will work IMO. getting another high paid 100k h1b/l1 will not help the country which is already struggling with 30 M unemployment
I dont have a problem saying 30M unemployment warrants new H1B be stopped.

I do have a problem when the argument comes in a disingenuous manner as I stated above.

We have seen this movie again and again.

Current immigrants wanna be think
oh they are only against Illegal immigration ... then they start talking about family migration as chain migration ... and we convince ourselves ... yeah that's right immigration should be about skills not family ... then they talk about EB green cards and then H1B and someday you will realize it was never about employment.

This was pure racism plain and simple when they will talk about white immigration being ok but brown is not ok.

Oh wait .... they actually said it back in 2016!!!

Sorry for the drama ... except what I wrote is absolutely true. Bottomline - never ever do the bidding of the racists.

[Zenzone]

How many H1B are hired to replace existing H1B? It almost never happens. 0.1% perhaps? So asking to stop issuing H1B to protect existing H1Bs is disingenuous.

Secondly he raises the 60 day window to let the base know that that's what's possible. But then he doesn't ask for a provision that says if an H1B is laid off due to COVID suspend such deportation.

True. But what I was implying was that there seems to be an implicit acceptance on H1s that are already here. I also feel its reflected in a relatively sluggish attempt to rescind H4 EADs for example (including yesterday's DHS court filing). While I say that its not suddenly the administration has become welcoming. I think it probably more so because of they know the limits of the executive power as well as the power of certain business lobbies who happen to be their allies. The short answer is its complex!

[Zenzone]

That's wolf in sheep's clothing for you. You can believe his argument to your own detriment. :)

There was an implicit sarcasm in my original quote btw...it was subtle ;)

[qesehmk]

True. But what I was implying was that there seems to be an implicit acceptance on H1s that are already here. I also feel its reflected in a relatively sluggish attempt to rescind H4 EADs for example (including yesterday's DHS court filing). While I say that its not suddenly the administration has become welcoming. I think it probably more so because of they know the limits of the executive power as well as the power of certain business lobbies who happen to be their allies. The short answer is its complex!

Zen - you don't need to guess it. I am telling you - if this administration doesn't touch something it's because the H1B sponsors must be dead against it. But the utlimate goal of miller and co is to stop brown immigration. Period.


There was an implicit sarcasm in my original quote btw...it was subtle ;)

I guess I am being dense :)

[aquatican]

As said in the bill,
"This proposal would simply reallocate a limited number of unused visas from prior years for doctors and nurses who are qualified to help in our fight against COVID-19.”

[abcx13]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-pushes-to-extend-coronavirus-immigration-limits-11588935603

H1B at risk in next EO. I wonder how renewals will be handled.

[idliman]

On other related news of no importance, Katie Miller, wife of Stephen Miller had tested positive for COVID. Lets pray for everyone's safety.


Miller's positive diagnosis for Covid-19 puts the potential threat of the infection squarely into the president’s inner circle. Miller serves as the vice president’s top spokesperson, traveling with him frequently and attending meetings by his side. She is also married to another top White House aide and senior adviser, Stephen Miller, who writes the majority of Trump’s speeches and spends copious amounts of time around the president, Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump.

I am relatively confident that they will not touch H1Bs who are already in USA in this round of EO. After they burned their hand going full bore in Muslim ban, Miller & admin are careful to take Brown immigration ban only one step at a time. They will try to keep their voting base happy at the same time not doing wholesale disruption to the business and companies. Let's wait and see.

It is only a matter of time, before everyone gets affected in some way. Hopefully political winds will change before that.


First they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a socialist.

Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a trade unionist.

Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—
Because I was not a Jew.

Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.

[idliman]

IMO, the original EO banning CP Green Cards for 60 days will definitely get extended. There is too much of chatter and news related to banning new immigration. Also, WaPO + UMD poll said there is a 60% poll approval of Trump's EO banning CP's. The president has authority and tools to use for pandemic situation. I believe the admin is smartly using this authority.

[Suva2001]

Zen - you don't need to guess it. I am telling you - if this administration doesn't touch something it's because the H1B sponsors must be dead against it. But the utlimate goal of miller and co is to stop brown immigration. Period.



I guess I am being dense :)

I agree 100% with you

[Zenzone]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-pushes-to-extend-coronavirus-immigration-limits-11588935603

H1B at risk in next EO. I wonder how renewals will be handled.

My paid subscription to WSJ expired some time back! So wats the crux here.

[sportsfan33]

My $0.02.

- Record unemployment is temporary and self-inflicted.
- The sectors where massive layoffs have taken place are simply insufficient to meet the demand in technology, where H1B skilled workers fill the gap. These two are non-overlapping sets.
- H1Bs are not going away anywhere. Anything close to a drastic action here would inflict absolutely enormous and massive pain on most large IT organizations (ours included) and further throw the economy into complete chaos.
- Stephen Miller is a nut job and crackpot who doesn't live in reality. On one hand, I understand massive misuse of H1Bs is harmful to Americans in the long term. However on the other hand, certain skills that H1Bs bridge are impossible to find anywhere else. Unfortunately, too often, I have personally seen examples where kids of friends (and even family) just dropped computer science because it was "too hard and taxing". When I need to hire someone with solid JAVA programming skills, that person invariably comes from some college in India/China. You can't fix it. You can't force American kids to do the heavy lifting required to become a competent coder. If America ends H1B, India and China will swoop in and within 10 to 20 years, America will end being the economic superpower (if it's not going there already). Been in the industry too long at all levels now, and I can discern this reality impartially.

[Zenzone]

My $0.02.

- Record unemployment is temporary and self-inflicted.
- The sectors where massive layoffs have taken place are simply insufficient to meet the demand in technology, where H1B skilled workers fill the gap. These two are non-overlapping sets.
- H1Bs are not going away anywhere. Anything close to a drastic action here would inflict absolutely enormous and massive pain on most large IT organizations (ours included) and further throw the economy into complete chaos.
- Stephen Miller is a nut job and crackpot who doesn't live in reality. On one hand, I understand massive misuse of H1Bs is harmful to Americans in the long term. However on the other hand, certain skills that H1Bs bridge are impossible to find anywhere else. Unfortunately, too often, I have personally seen examples where kids of friends (and even family) just dropped computer science because it was "too hard and taxing". When I need to hire someone with solid JAVA programming skills, that person invariably comes from some college in India/China. You can't fix it. You can't force American kids to do the heavy lifting required to become a competent coder. If America ends H1B, India and China will swoop in and within 10 to 20 years, America will end being the economic superpower (if it's not going there already). Been in the industry too long at all levels now, and I can discern this reality impartially.

Couldn't agree with you more. Also, there is rhetoric (especially during the election year) and there is actual action. Usually you promise a mountain and deliver a mole. Regardless, many top shops will simply off-shore and move large swaths of H1Bs there to continue support them. There is simply deep entrenchment of specific institutional knowledge that can't be taught through academia. I can't imagine running my shop without these pipelines of workforce. I do work for a large (top 10) by market cap enterprise. These large caps make up for a powerful lobby at the end of the day regardless of industry and I strongly think they still can influence policy implementation.

[imdeng]

From the new House bill on Covid response:
ROLLOVER OF UNUSED VISAS: (A) IN GENERAL.—For fiscal years 2021 and 2022, the worldwide level of family-sponsored immigrants under subsection (c) of section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), the worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under subsection (d) of such section, and the worldwide level of diversity immigrants under subsection (e) of such section shall each be increased by the number computed under subparagraph (B) with respect to each of such worldwide levels.

Essentially: No rollover of unused FB numbers into EB next year. Unused FB numbers add to FB numbers next year.

This is just my quick read of a 1700+ page document. Let lawyers come up with a more credible version.

[Zenzone]

From the new House bill on Covid response:
ROLLOVER OF UNUSED VISAS: (A) IN GENERAL.—For fiscal years 2021 and 2022, the worldwide level of family-sponsored immigrants under subsection (c) of section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), the worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under subsection (d) of such section, and the worldwide level of diversity immigrants under subsection (e) of such section shall each be increased by the number computed under subparagraph (B) with respect to each of such worldwide levels.

Essentially: No rollover of unused FB numbers into EB next year. Unused FB numbers add to FB numbers next year.

This is just my quick read of a 1700+ page document. Let lawyers come up with a more credible version.

This bill is going nowhere. If you read other provisions, there are many more giveaways for visas and also it increases the # of GCs for healthcare workers. Its a GOP non-starter among many things. This is largely posturing by Dems. to please the base. If it were to pass this will be changed substantially in my opinion.

[qesehmk]

From the new House bill on Covid response:
ROLLOVER OF UNUSED VISAS: (A) IN GENERAL.—For fiscal years 2021 and 2022, the worldwide level of family-sponsored immigrants under subsection (c) of section 201 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (8 U.S.C. 1151), the worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under subsection (d) of such section, and the worldwide level of diversity immigrants under subsection (e) of such section shall each be increased by the number computed under subparagraph (B) with respect to each of such worldwide levels.

Essentially: No rollover of unused FB numbers into EB next year. Unused FB numbers add to FB numbers next year.

This is just my quick read of a 1700+ page document. Let lawyers come up with a more credible version.

Hi imdeng - can you please post the link? I couldn't find it.

[Zenzone]

Hi imdeng - can you please post the link? I couldn't find it.

https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20200511/BILLS-116hr6800ih.pdf

[qesehmk]

https://docs.house.gov/billsthisweek/20200511/BILLS-116hr6800ih.pdfThank you.

This is the new house bill proposed by democrats. This is stimulus 2.0 if I am not wrong. Immigration is part of this. Here are key provisions ...
I will keep on adding more as I read...

1) It allows immigrants to NOT be considered out of status (even if they otherwise would have been) by a total of Period of Emergency declared by Department of Health + 90 days + 60 days grace. Effectively allowing all immigrants to stay in the US 5 months after the COVID emergency officially ends.
2) It also allows authorities to further extend status or work authorizations by 90 days 1 year after such emergency ends or enactment of this bill (whichever is later). In simple words work authorizations may be extended at the discretion of the DHS secretary by at least upto 15 months since this bill comes into effect.
3) Any unused visas from 2020 and 2021 won't fall across from EB to FB or FB to EB. Instead they will fall within the same category (i.e. EB or FB) and then distributed in proportion to all sub categories within.
4) Naturalization ceremonies may be conducted using remote tech i.e. virtual conferences.
5) Any person engaged in critical infrastructure and his/her employer are protected from legal action. The person is deemed authorized for employment.
6) Expedited Green card processing for essential workers particularly for doctors. (However no word on visa availability)
7) To be completed..

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

http://www.visalaw.com/siskind-summary-health-care-worker-immigration-provisions-house-phase-4-covid-bill-heroes-act/

This is a House Covid-19 bill which includes provisions for GCs for healthcare personnel but it is a bit different than the Senate bill. Here is Siskind's tweet summary:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1260295468648738816

[Zenzone]

http://www.visalaw.com/siskind-summary-health-care-worker-immigration-provisions-house-phase-4-covid-bill-heroes-act/

This is a House Covid-19 bill which includes provisions for GCs for healthcare personnel but it is a bit different than the Senate bill. Here is Siskind's tweet summary:
https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1260295468648738816

Its a lot different. Especially immigration related provisions.

[NJMavarick]

Its a lot different. Especially immigration related provisions.

This bill also has provisions to roll over unused FB visas for the next 2 years and NOT spill over to EB. This is exactly the opposite of T executive action but you can see the priorities of the Ds.

[Blue_fairy]

This bill also has provisions to roll over unused FB visas for the next 2 years and NOT spill over to EB. This is exactly the opposite of T executive action but you can see the priorities of the Ds.

This was bound to happen. Unfortunately, it seems to be part of the bigger strategy to cease all immigration.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

The sooner the US realizes that a one-size fits all visa program for EB immigration is bogus, the better. Today it's a medical pandemic, in the future it could be AI gone amok requiring engineers to intervene :). It should not take a crisis to make common sense policies, but that's where we are because of partisan politics for decades on both sides of the aisle.

[amarrecherla]

Thank you.

This is the new house bill proposed by democrats. This is stimulus 2.0 if I am not wrong. Immigration is part of this. Here are key provisions ...
I will keep on adding more as I read...

1) It allows immigrants to NOT be considered out of status (even if they otherwise would have been) by a total of Period of Emergency declared by Department of Health + 90 days + 60 days grace. Effectively allowing all immigrants to stay in the US 5 months after the COVID emergency officially ends.
2) It also allows authorities to further extend status or work authorizations by 90 days 1 year after such emergency ends or enactment of this bill (whichever is later). In simple words work authorizations may be extended at the discretion of the DHS secretary by at least upto 15 months since this bill comes into effect.
3) Any unused visas from 2021 won't fall across from EB to FB or FB to EB. Instead they will fall within the same category (i.e. EB or FB) and then distributed in proportion to all sub categories within.
4) Naturalization ceremonies may be conducted using remote tech i.e. virtual conferences.
5) Any person engaged in critical infrastructure and his/her employer are protected from legal action. The person is deemed authorized for employment.
6) Expedited Green card processing for essential workers particularly for doctors. (However no word on visa availability)

This confuses me. Is the rollover policy for unused visas from fiscal year 2020 or 2021 on wards?

[qesehmk]

This confuses me. Is the rollover policy for unused visas from fiscal year 2020 or 2021 on wards?
Good question. It applies to any fallacross from 2020 and 2021 into 2021 and 2022 respectively.

[NJMavarick]

Agree with you 100%. I also think its possible that Dems want a hook into GOP from further trying to curtail family immigration which is D's target rich pool for base expansion. Nevertheless, since immigration is not a prime focus of this bill, these provisions could be completely left out in the compromise for being addressed in a later bill just focused on immigration. For example, remember DACA ruling by Supreme Court could be out anytime this summer. There are simply more immigration chips to fall in near term that make it ripe for a full carve out from this bill.

Immigration has become such a contentious issue that neither the Rs and Ds have the courage to address it! I think any immigration related changes will only happen via EO which will align with the Trumps administration policy of reducing immigration. No one wants to cave in.Until DACA gets invalidated by SCOTUS it will be status quo.

[NJMavarick]

Dems are pursuing an agenda which in my opinion has strong economic merit overall but certainly has no hope of passing the senate.

Immigration is relatively minor piece of the whole bill and has excellent provisions except the fallacross rule change for 2021/22.

The fall across rule change proposal is without a compelling argument for it. I sense a hint of animosity over Durbin name calling by IV.

In my judgement dems are generally more pro all kinds of immigration. And while this bill has almost zero chance of passing, it at least highlighted how much EB-I has alienated democrats. But in politics it is never too late to start building goodwill. For what is is worth, it is a good idea to write to whoever is writing this bill and try to influence them to drop fall across change.

I do not think it would be fair to say that EBI has alienated the Ds. It was Durbin who opposed removal of the country cap. He drew first blood in-spite of his colleagues who belonged to the same part having sponsored the bill both in the House and Senate. Let us not forget that the bill was passed in the house where the Ds are a majority. Regardless, the I-140 EAD was also watered down during OBAMA administration.

I think at the moment, the Ds are for all immigration but DACA, FB and the undocumented take a priority over us backlogged legal folks.

[qesehmk]

I do not think it would be fair to say that EBI has alienated the Ds. It was Durbin who opposed removal of the country cap. He drew first blood in-spite of his colleagues who belonged to the same part having sponsored the bill both in the House and Senate. Let us not forget that the bill was passed in the house where the Ds are a majority. Regardless, the I-140 EAD was also watered down during OBAMA administration.

I think at the moment, the Ds are for all immigration but DACA, FB and the undocumented take a priority over us backlogged legal folks.
No mav - Durbin opposed the process of unanimous consent rather than country caps. In other words IV and republicans put a gun to his head and said "Our way or highway". He took the highway. I don't blame him. You can not pass a legislation this serious and contentious via unanimous consent.

[Zenzone]

No mav - Durbin opposed the process of unanimous consent rather than country caps. In other words IV and republicans put a gun to his head and said "Our way or highway". He took the highway. I don't blame him. You can not pass a legislation this serious and contentious via unanimous consent.

Q - Not sure if I fully agree with you here. If unanimous consent was his concern he could have said that directly. That's not the reason he quoted for his opposition. I also second the idea that just based on history and facts, R's seem to have our backs than the D's at least at this moment. I would again place my chips on the side that bets no immigration reform will come to fruition via. stimulus 2.0.

[vsivarama]

Q - Not sure if I fully agree with you here. If unanimous consent was his concern he could have said that directly. That's not the reason he quoted for his opposition. I also second the idea that just based on history and facts, R's seem to have our backs than the D's at least at this moment. I would again place my chips on the side that bets no immigration reform will come to fruition via. stimulus 2.0.

R's back legal immigration not because of their love for us, but to put out a talking point that they are not anti-immigrant. D's favor the illegal over legal immigrants because of the number of votes they will add. There are probably 1 million legal immigrants in queue. But atleast 10-15 million illegals in the country. The problem with D's is not that they pander to illegal immigrants (I guess I am fine with that), but that they go out of their way to spit on the faces of legal immigrants as they pander to illegal immigrants. A lot of piece meal reforms could have been passed with bipartisan support but D's would rather hold us hostage to get to their goal of getting illegal immigrants legalized. That's the sad truth.

[qesehmk]

Q - Not sure if I fully agree with you here. If unanimous consent was his concern he could have said that directly. That's not the reason he quoted for his opposition. I also second the idea that just based on history and facts, R's seem to have our backs than the D's at least at this moment. I would again place my chips on the side that bets no immigration reform will come to fruition via. stimulus 2.0.
I think everything is always negotiable. But UC killed it.

R's have conned EB-I into thinking they support EB immigration. Nothing is further from truth. I have spoken enough on this.
Even historically democrats without a doubt are more pro immigrants. Some Indian EBs are playing a stupid hand here. I can only say this so many times. Those who want to inflict self harm, I can't stop you from it. But to me this is not advocacy. This is pure stupidity. Forget politics, one should at least recognize self interest.

[GhostWriter]

Once again you are mixing your political biases with what is happening. That you would sumperimpose those on your prejudices for I V is a given by now.

Unlike you immigrants without a green card do not have the luxury of picking political sides and neither did I V pick any. The bipartisan support obtained by I V is a clear indication. Dems were not targeted by I V only Durbin was and very very rightly.
There has been and there will likely to be a fractured mandate (house, senate and president) for a while and nothing can be achieved by siding with one party and falsely labeling the other as anti immigrant. The net immigration is also not going to increase for a while.

The current pause of green card issuance can result in benefiting EB. It is clear which party has proposed a bill to please Hispanic voter base to prevent the spillover from FB to EB. Hopefully that bill does not go anywhere and the pause due to Trump's executive order ends up as a blessing in disguise for the EB backlogged community.






I think everything is always negotiable. But UC killed it.

R's have conned EB-I into thinking they support EB immigration. Nothing is further from truth. I have spoken enough on this.
Even historically democrats without a doubt are more pro immigrants. Some Indian EBs are playing a stupid hand here. I can only say this so many times. Those who want to inflict self harm, I can't stop you from it. But to me this is not advocacy. This is pure stupidity. Forget politics, one should at least recognize self interest.

[qesehmk]

Once again you are mixing your political biases with what is happening. That you would sumperimpose those on your prejudices for I V is a given by now.

Unlike you immigrants without a green card do not have the luxury of picking political sides and neither did I V pick any. The bipartisan support obtained by I V is a clear indication. Dems were not targeted by I V only Durbin was and very very rightly.
There has been and there will likely to be a fractured mandate (house, senate and president) for a while and nothing can be achieved by siding with one party and falsely labeling the other as anti immigrant. The net immigration is also not going to increase for a while.

The current pause of green card issuance can result in benefiting EB. It is clear which party has proposed a bill to please Hispanic voter base to prevent the spillover from FB to EB. Hopefully that bill does not go anywhere and the pause due to Trump's executive order ends up as a blessing in disguise for the EB backlogged community.

I am simply stating things as they are. The fact is IV did get played into R side by standing by UC and then badmouthing a perfectly good senator.

For your own selfish reasons it is a good idea to start acknowledging mistakes and at least not burn bridges. By tarnishing a good senator I have no idea how you or IV thinks they can achieve their goals. I have no respect for spineless people who cozy upto the party that clearly is racist.

I am not interested in any dialogue with any of you IV supporters. Please save your wisdom for the advocacy and stop wasting my time. I run this blog of course with a view point but objectively. I am giving specific reasons why I believe what I do.

Can any one of you tell me in your infinite wisdom WHY UC WAS NECESSARY for S388? Go back to the IV masters and get this answer. Perhaps I will learn something new.

[Pundit Arjun]

I am simply stating things as they are. The fact is IV did get played into R side by standing by UC and then badmouthing a perfectly good senator.

For your own selfish reasons it is a good idea to start acknowledging mistakes and at least not burn bridges. By tarnishing a good senator I have no idea how you or IV thinks they can achieve their goals. I have no respect for spineless people who cozy upto the party that clearly is racist.

I am not interested in any dialogue with any of you IV supporters. Please save your wisdom for the advocacy and stop wasting my time. I run this blog of course with a view point but objectively. I am giving specific reasons why I believe what I do.

Can any one of you tell me in your infinite wisdom WHY UC WAS NECESSARY for S388? Go back to the IV masters and get this answer. Perhaps I will learn something new.

Ghostwriter - We have all known I V and their work. Almost everyone with PD 2009 and Prior are aware of all the wonderful stuff they have done for the immigrants:rolleyes:.
There were many reasons why Q started this blog [I V being the major one]. Many of us in this blog left I V and joined Q's blog for similar reasons.

[skpanda]

Q.. i agree with most of your thoughts....

However, if UC was concern, what has Durbin done to negotiate on it and get the bill moving? From what i know - nothing.

The hidden intention does not seem to be UC. May be he is a very good senator who means well... but if he blocked a bill (that passed with overwhelming majority in house) he has to clearly state what he wants changed in order to support the bill. I have not seen that. He just says he wants to increase the number of GCs. That is not going to happen for decades to come. If anything the GC numbers will reduce for the next decade. US gives 1 million GCs in every year year. This is very generous. Show me another country that gives that many in a year. So instead of asking for impossible things, he should improve the system.

If you remember back in 2013, I and some others spoke to you over conference calls to see the possibility of suing US government on country caps. I remember one very good point you mentioned that now only EB-I is suffering so nobody is complaining. Once country caps are gone, everybody will feel the backlog over a period of time. Everybody will make noise and not just EB-I. This will support Durbin's call for more GCs.

So i feel Durbin has some hidden agenda which he does not want to share lest he branded as r***t with evidence from horse's mouth?

Note:

a. I am not a fan of IV and do not participate in their events. My opinion on them is ....Good or bad.. they are trying something and have reached somewhere on the hill that many of us have not. Hope they work with both parties to get bipartisan support!

b. I also believe tarnishing and launching website on durbin is a foolish idea. They should work Durbin behind the scenes and try turn him around. This path they have taken is not going to help in anyway in my opinion. no body cares about these gimmicks except EB-I community. Will have no effect on Durbin since if he cared, he would not have blocked the bill in the first place and would have tried to negotiate.


I am simply stating things as they are. The fact is IV did get played into R side by standing by UC and then badmouthing a perfectly good senator.

For your own selfish reasons it is a good idea to start acknowledging mistakes and at least not burn bridges. By tarnishing a good senator I have no idea how you or IV thinks they can achieve their goals. I have no respect for spineless people who cozy upto the party that clearly is racist.

I am not interested in any dialogue with any of you IV supporters. Please save your wisdom for the advocacy and stop wasting my time. I run this blog of course with a view point but objectively. I am giving specific reasons why I believe what I do.

Can any one of you tell me in your infinite wisdom WHY UC WAS NECESSARY for S388? Go back to the IV masters and get this answer. Perhaps I will learn something new.

[imdeng]

Ghostwriter - We have all known I V and their work. Almost everyone with PD 2009 and Prior are aware of all the wonderful stuff they have done for the immigrants:rolleyes:.
There were many reasons why Q started this blog [I V being the major one]. Many of us in this blog left I V and joined Q's blog for similar reasons.

There are not many of us around who remember first hand the splitting of this site from I-V. Happy to see a few old warriors still hanging around. I miss those days - we had such an analytical, numbers focused community that did amazing work. Of course - there was semi-reliable data to work with in those days. Folks with real expertise helping people out.

[qesehmk]

There are not many of us around who remember first hand the splitting of this site from I-V. Happy to see a few old warriors still hanging around. I miss those days - we had such an analytical, numbers focused community that did amazing work. Of course - there was semi-reliable data to work with in those days. Folks with real expertise helping people out.
Imdeng - First it is painful to have old timers. People don't deserve to spend 10-15 years of their lives chasing a green card. Especially a talent-rich backlogged community such as EB-IC. As you know I obtained a GC almost 10 years back and stopped doing manual calculations 8 years back. I do think that people should use this website not just to calculate and analyze but also to support each other. It takes an emotional toll on people dealing with injustice.

[qesehmk]

Q.. i agree with most of your thoughts....

However, if UC was concern, what has Durbin done to negotiate on it and get the bill moving? From what i know - nothing.

The hidden intention does not seem to be UC. May be he is a very good senator who means well... but if he blocked a bill (that passed with overwhelming majority in house) he has to clearly state what he wants changed in order to support the bill. I have not seen that. He just says he wants to increase the number of GCs. That is not going to happen for decades to come. If anything the GC numbers will reduce for the next decade. US gives 1 million GCs in every year year. This is very generous. Show me another country that gives that many in a year. So instead of asking for impossible things, he should improve the system.

If you remember back in 2013, I and some others spoke to you over conference calls to see the possibility of suing US government on country caps. I remember one very good point you mentioned that now only EB-I is suffering so nobody is complaining. Once country caps are gone, everybody will feel the backlog over a period of time. Everybody will make noise and not just EB-I. This will support Durbin's call for more GCs.

So i feel Durbin has some hidden agenda which he does not want to share lest he branded as r***t with evidence from horse's mouth?

Note:

a. I am not a fan of IV and do not participate in their events. My opinion on them is ....Good or bad.. they are trying something and have reached somewhere on the hill that many of us have not. Hope they work with both parties to get bipartisan support!

b. I also believe tarnishing and launching website on durbin is a foolish idea. They should work Durbin behind the scenes and try turn him around. This path they have taken is not going to help in anyway in my opinion. no body cares about these gimmicks except EB-I community. Will have no effect on Durbin since if he cared, he would not have blocked the bill in the first place and would have tried to negotiate.
Hi SkPanda - good to hear from you. First I must apologize to all for my rather harsh tone in my last post. I believe all backlogged immigrants should have a common agenda that is apolitical. That will allow all to focus on their own self interest rather than get played by the American politics which is complex. Our brain likes to divide things into two dimensions or black and white. But things are multi dimensional. People are aligned to different values and goals and it does everybody a disservice when we say somebody is racist, or republicans are this and democrats are that. Specific to durbin - perhaps we need a thread. Because I have explained this so many times and yet people are confused. UC is a senate procedure. It allows bypassing the normal procedure of how a bill is passed. It is used to expedite mundane senate business. Not to pass a serious legislation. Thus it was a poison pill that not just Durbin but any senator could object to including republicans. So to blame it on Durbin is quite crafty. Second - Durbin is advocating for his own constituents. If you want any senator to advocate for you, you work in the background. Strong arm tactics will simply not work unless you are a billionaire and will commit funds against the senator. So whats going on here. Why does IV or anybody else think that Durbin owes any gratitude or latitude to you? Why? You have a view point and he has a viewpoint. The only way to change his view point is to work with him. Built connections and common ground. He has no obligation to come up with any other plan.

p.s. - US does give 1M GCs.. Do you know the fed targets 3% economic growth as 2% productivity and 1% population? But current US population produces 1.9 children per family and thus it contributes negative to the GDP objective. (should be at least 2 per couple right?). That is why Fed and all policy makers have relied on immigration historically to get extra 1%. Luckily since 1990s technology has produced much more than 2% productivity and thus immigration has become an issue. But otherwise immigration is not favor to anybody else. It is a need.

[excalibur123]

Hi SkPanda - good to hear from you. First I must apologize to all for my rather harsh tone in my last post. I believe all backlogged immigrants should have a common agenda that is apolitical. That will allow all to focus on their own self interest rather than get played by the American politics which is complex. Our brain likes to divide things into two dimensions or black and white. But things are multi dimensional. People are aligned to different values and goals and it does everybody a disservice when we say somebody is racist, or republicans are this and democrats are that. Specific to durbin - perhaps we need a thread. Because I have explained this so many times and yet people are confused. UC is a senate procedure. It allows bypassing the normal procedure of how a bill is passed. It is used to expedite mundane senate business. Not to pass a serious legislation. Thus it was a poison pill that not just Durbin but any senator could object to including republicans. So to blame it on Durbin is quite crafty. Second - Durbin is advocating for his own constituents. If you want any senator to advocate for you, you work in the background. Strong arm tactics will simply not work unless you are a billionaire and will commit funds against the senator. So whats going on here. Why does IV or anybody else think that Durbin owes any gratitude or latitude to you? Why? You have a view point and he has a viewpoint. The only way to change his view point is to work with him. Built connections and common ground. He has no obligation to come up with any other plan.

p.s. - US does give 1M GCs.. Do you know the fed targets 3% economic growth as 2% productivity and 1% population? But current US population produces 1.9 children per family and thus it contributes negative to the GDP objective. (should be at least 2 per couple right?). That is why Fed and all policy makers have relied on immigration historically to get extra 1%. Luckily since 1990s technology has produced much more than 2% productivity and thus immigration has become an issue. But otherwise immigration is not favor to anybody else. It is a need.

One only needs to look at who will be most harmed if S386 is passed. And what could they do prevent it. Everything else is probably barking up the wrong tree.

[rocketfast]

One only needs to look at who will be most harmed if S386 is passed. And what could they do prevent it. Everything else is probably barking up the wrong tree.

S386 would have likely passed if it was diluted (e.g 50% no country cap and remaining as-is). S386 made sense before 2015 when the backlog was less than half as now. You can't expect professions where there are non-Indians to sit and watch Indians take up the entire quota for the next 10-15 years. They will fight tooth and nail. And so they fought and won. One of the major opponents this time came from Florida. And there was also AHA.

I still remember meeting with Zoe Lofgren in her office where in 2013-14, she said that removing country caps would add 7 year wait time for ROW. So this was a problem even back then.

About Q's argument on why only UC, the answer as I know is that Republican leadership is unwilling to allocate 7 days of senate time on this bill - they have other priorities. And you apparently need to let 7 day of debate for any opponents, if there is no unanimous consent. And any opponent can stretch it out with hearings with the likes of Ron Hira, Matloff etc.

[excalibur123]

S386 would have likely passed if it was diluted (e.g 50% no country cap and remaining as-is). S386 made sense before 2015 when the backlog was less than half as now. You can't expect professions where there are non-Indians to sit and watch Indians take up the entire quota for the next 10-15 years. They will fight tooth and nail. And so they fought and won. One of the major opponents this time came from Florida. And there was also AHA.

I still remember meeting with Zoe Lofgren in her office where in 2013-14, she said that removing country caps would add 7 year wait time for ROW. So this was a problem even back then.

About Q's argument on why only UC, the answer as I know is that Republican leadership is unwilling to allocate 7 days of senate time on this bill - they have other priorities. And you apparently need to let 7 day of debate for any opponents, if there is no unanimous consent. And any opponent can stretch it out with hearings with the likes of Ron Hira, Matloff etc.

All your points make a lot of sense, you seem to be more aware than many. In my prior posts I had also indicated that S386 doesn't pass common-sense test as it seems to impact many other professions/mechanisms by which people come here - without restraint. So even if IV has a valid position, it is proposing a solution which is probably not workable for America. (On a flip side, H4EAD would have been long gone if not for IV's intervention. That is no small feat).

Though what remains unanswered is -
- why the very last minute intervention on such a serious issue, and that too from only one senator? (or is that just incidental?)
- there is no harm clause to take care of all other professions, which was further expanded - so what is the remaining concern? In fact if you expand the no harm clause even further then it may get to example you provided - 50% no cap, 50% with caps.
So why has that not been negotiated?

Do you know about this? And who was the opponent from Florida?

What I was alluding to with my previous post is the role of law firms in this. IMO They would take the biggest hit if S386 passes - as-is or in any diluted form.

[sportsfan33]

Hi SkPanda - good to hear from you. First I must apologize to all for my rather harsh tone in my last post. I believe all backlogged immigrants should have a common agenda that is apolitical. That will allow all to focus on their own self interest rather than get played by the American politics which is complex. Our brain likes to divide things into two dimensions or black and white. But things are multi dimensional. People are aligned to different values and goals and it does everybody a disservice when we say somebody is racist, or republicans are this and democrats are that. Specific to durbin - perhaps we need a thread. Because I have explained this so many times and yet people are confused. UC is a senate procedure. It allows bypassing the normal procedure of how a bill is passed. It is used to expedite mundane senate business. Not to pass a serious legislation. Thus it was a poison pill that not just Durbin but any senator could object to including republicans. So to blame it on Durbin is quite crafty. Second - Durbin is advocating for his own constituents. If you want any senator to advocate for you, you work in the background. Strong arm tactics will simply not work unless you are a billionaire and will commit funds against the senator. So whats going on here. Why does IV or anybody else think that Durbin owes any gratitude or latitude to you? Why? You have a view point and he has a viewpoint. The only way to change his view point is to work with him. Built connections and common ground. He has no obligation to come up with any other plan.

p.s. - US does give 1M GCs.. Do you know the fed targets 3% economic growth as 2% productivity and 1% population? But current US population produces 1.9 children per family and thus it contributes negative to the GDP objective. (should be at least 2 per couple right?). That is why Fed and all policy makers have relied on immigration historically to get extra 1%. Luckily since 1990s technology has produced much more than 2% productivity and thus immigration has become an issue. But otherwise immigration is not favor to anybody else. It is a need.

The real US fertility rate is lower and has plummeted below 1.8. It could very well be below 1.7, and after the coming severe depression, it could plunge well below 1.5 - after all, several European countries have had fertility rate in 1.3-1.4 for almost a couple of decades now.

The family unit in the US is a state of complete disaster across all demographics. Literally, it is only the immigrants at this point that are providing any semblance of family to the US. From my anecdotal experiences, I know several, several acquaintances with US born kids who are well into 30s and sometimes in the 40s that don't have kids (a majority are not even married). Getting married, staying put, raising kids, making sacrifices - all seem old fashioned now. It's all about the latest trends, hip bars, and the likes.

Even the stable families have both parents working and very few of them have two kids even that. (We had our second child almost 7 years after the first one - at one point, we were sure we would never have another child).

After spending a few years growing up, getting mature and getting more experiences, I can now look back at this more objectively. Why is the US allowing so many immigrants? As an immigrant, you have to wonder. But what's overlooked is that *we are all over here, and not in India*. Some ~4 million of us - collectively the cream of the Indian crop - are contributing to the economy of the US and are doing nothing for India. The US has collectively stole from India and many other countries - plain and simple. It is true there were no opportunities back in India and the US has a free-thinking, law-abiding and capitalistic system in place. However, this system needs the right people to perpetuate it, and immigration is how the US fills the gap.

It is just a wonder how the policymakers passed the famous INS act back in 1965, a result of which is why we are here and the world is what it is.

I hope we pass these days and a solid solution is accepted by policymakers at both ends of the aisle.

[rocketfast]

All your points make a lot of sense, you seem to be more aware than many. In my prior posts I had also indicated that S386 doesn't pass common-sense test as it seems to impact many other professions/mechanisms by which people come here - without restraint. So even if IV has a valid position, it is proposing a solution which is probably not workable for America. (On a flip side, H4EAD would have been long gone if not for IV's intervention. That is no small feat).

Though what remains unanswered is -
- why the very last minute intervention on such a serious issue, and that too from only one senator? (or is that just incidental?)
- there is no harm clause to take care of all other professions, which was further expanded - so what is the remaining concern? In fact if you expand the no harm clause even further then it may get to example you provided - 50% no cap, 50% with caps.
So why has that not been negotiated?

Do you know about this? And who was the opponent from Florida?

What I was alluding to with my previous post is the role of law firms in this. IMO They would take the biggest hit if S386 passes - as-is or in any diluted form.

I am not dissing IV. Volunteered for them as a foot soldier. But at the end of the day, you use common sense and realize that you are fighting a losing cause.

IMO, just like every place, some immigration lawyers support s386 and some don't. Since s386 will not increase green cards, the backlogs will only increase. So, lawyers will have enough business one way or the other. Some lawyers will lose some business (and they may oppose) and some will gain.

About Durbin: You can google about it, but there are a bunch of H1B reform legislations where Durbin and Grassley worked together. So Durbin knows that H1B program is a program being abused by Indian tech companies. So he has seen the ugly under belly of the program and he does have a prejudice against Indian IT workers.

So his condition for removing hold was the heavy penalty for Indian tech companies (50-50 rule). But obviously, they lobbied and made Mike Lee postpone the enforcement by a few years. And Durbin promptly withdrew from the agreement.

When the bill passed the house, the opponents were alarmed. They were desperately trying to find that one senator who will put a hold. I think (conjecturing) initially Durbin thought it has no chance among the racist republicans. So he simply decided against acting. Once Perdue and Rand Paul removed their hold and it looked like they are no other opponents, he put his hat in the ring.

Whether we like it or not, Indian tech companies will fill increase the demand as soon as s386 passes. They will make it impossible for any one else to benefit. You can see the state of EB1C on what will happen once s386 passes.

[qesehmk]

The US has collectively stole from India and many other countries - plain and simple. It is true there were no opportunities back in India and the US has a free-thinking, law-abiding and capitalistic system in place.
Sport - I wholeheartedly agree with your post. Lest somebody pick negative connotation please allow me to clarify your post.

The industry thrives where rule of law exists, Where liberal democracies exist. Where competition and innovation thrives. US is absolutely the best place in those terms.

Immigrants always make positive difference - be it US, or Maharashtra or Bengaluru. I am a big supporter of immigration not just in US but anywhere in the world. Talent will always travel and travel to places that are just and rewarding.

[qesehmk]

One only needs to look at who will be most harmed if S386 is passed. And what could they do prevent it. Everything else is probably barking up the wrong tree.Believe it or not .. it's not lawyers. Their workload remains the same whether person A waits in the line or B. The real parties not interested in solution to EB-IC backlog and their motivations are (in that order):

1) The corporations (captive IT workforce)
2) Some elements in the government and administration (racism)
3) State department ( diversity reasons)

[excalibur123]

Believe it or not .. it's not lawyers. Their workload remains the same whether person A waits in the line or B. The real parties not interested in solution to EB-IC backlog and their motivations are (in that order):

1) The corporations (captive IT workforce)
2) Some elements in the government and administration (racism)
3) State department ( diversity reasons)

Someone did a quick calculation on twitter for lawyer fees for EB-I and it amounted to $1.75 billion a year for extensions, transfers, h4s, rfes, premium processing and multitude of other applications which come along your way - which are directly proportional to length of time you spend in backlog. And there are hundreds of thousands in backlog now.

Of course the backlog would be handled some day one way or the other - but they can keep the gravy train going till they can. It is easy money - and lots of money for mundane, repetitive work.

[excalibur123]

I am not dissing IV. Volunteered for them as a foot soldier. But at the end of the day, you use common sense and realize that you are fighting a losing cause.

IMO, just like every place, some immigration lawyers support s386 and some don't. Since s386 will not increase green cards, the backlogs will only increase. So, lawyers will have enough business one way or the other. Some lawyers will lose some business (and they may oppose) and some will gain.

About Durbin: You can google about it, but there are a bunch of H1B reform legislations where Durbin and Grassley worked together. So Durbin knows that H1B program is a program being abused by Indian tech companies. So he has seen the ugly under belly of the program and he does have a prejudice against Indian IT workers.

So his condition for removing hold was the heavy penalty for Indian tech companies (50-50 rule). But obviously, they lobbied and made Mike Lee postpone the enforcement by a few years. And Durbin promptly withdrew from the agreement.

When the bill passed the house, the opponents were alarmed. They were desperately trying to find that one senator who will put a hold. I think (conjecturing) initially Durbin thought it has no chance among the racist republicans. So he simply decided against acting. Once Perdue and Rand Paul removed their hold and it looked like they are no other opponents, he put his hat in the ring.

Whether we like it or not, Indian tech companies will fill increase the demand as soon as s386 passes. They will make it impossible for any one else to benefit. You can see the state of EB1C on what will happen once s386 passes.

Thanks for the reply. The whole saga is just unfortunate.

[qesehmk]

Someone did a quick calculation on twitter for lawyer fees for EB-I and it amounted to $1.75 billion a year for extensions, transfers, h4s, rfes, premium processing and multitude of other applications which come along your way - which are directly proportional to length of time you spend in backlog. And there are hundreds of thousands in backlog now.

Of course the backlog would be handled some day one way or the other - but they can keep the gravy train going till they can. It is easy money - and lots of money for mundane, repetitive work.

I thought about that. But then wouldn't that be true for anybody who is in the backlog?

[excalibur123]

I thought about that. But then wouldn't that be true for anybody who is in the backlog?

The aggregate time in backlog is same but now spread across more people. Won't that reduce extensions and transfers and so on? And of course less the time you spend, less desperate you are to pay higher fees, and lesser you spend on consultations.

Also for the firms who have existing business model going on, they may not be serving the same industry, clients or regions who would now be added.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Siskind has started his fear mongering again, but who knows, he may be vindicated come Oct.

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1263206427776233474

For those not interested in reading, the gist is that he is asking why are the FB dates not current with almost 95% of them being CP cases. He is also cautioning EB folks that don't think the excess FB numbers are going to be re-allocated as required, there are going to be games played with that too.

[qesehmk]

Siskind has started his fear mongering again, but who knows, he may be vindicated come Oct.

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1263206427776233474

For those not interested in reading, the gist is that he is asking why are the FB dates not current with almost 95% of them being CP cases. He is also cautioning EB folks that don't think the excess FB numbers are going to be re-allocated as required, there are going to be games played with that too.

I do not know Greg Sisking. When I went through his twits, they are logical and just to me. If EB was in same situation, we would be worried about dates not moving fast enough The same is true with FB. The only problem is - there is no law that states that DOS must allocate the visas. There is a practical difficulty in moving forward dates - a lot of the folks 6-12 months beyond "current dates" have no realistic chance of getting their background check done etc. So simply moving the dates does nothing.

As per unused visas falling across to EB - the only way that will not happen is by the act of congress. The congress will have to make a new law. In my judgement there is almost zero probability of that happening because it will be such a contentious bill. So I guess EB-I backlogged folks can safely assume that they will see a lot more extra visas next year. But of course strange things have happened in the past ... So don't hold me to this!

[delguy]

Siskind has started his fear mongering again, but who knows, he may be vindicated come Oct.

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1263206427776233474

For those not interested in reading, the gist is that he is asking why are the FB dates not current with almost 95% of them being CP cases. He is also cautioning EB folks that don't think the excess FB numbers are going to be re-allocated as required, there are going to be games played with that too.

The lawyers seems pretty outraged that dates for FB didnt become current, never saw them
showing this outrage when EB India dates moves up by a day or sometimes dont move at all. They want even EB India to join them in their outrage. Pretty funny actually. Just last week they were happy that House version of stimuls bill has clause to stop spillover from FB to EB for next 2 years.

[NJMavarick]

The lawyers seems pretty outraged that dates for FB didnt become current, never saw them
showing this outrage when EB India dates moves up by a day or sometimes dont move at all. They want even EB India to join them in their outrage. Pretty funny actually. Just last week they were happy that House version of stimuls bill has clause to stop spillover from FB to EB for next 2 years.

It seem GS business depends upon FB immigration and that is the reason he is jumping up and down! Its kinda sad to see the gullible desi folks believing that he is going to be one on their saviors! Make no mistake, he is a wolf in sheep's clothing

[Zenzone]

It seem GS business depends upon FB immigration and that is the reason he is jumping up and down! Its kinda sad to see the gullible desi folks believing that he is going to be one on their saviors! Make no mistake, he is a wolf in sheep's clothing

H1b amendments, extensions, transfers, H4s, H4-EADs ahh and not to forget the RFEs etc etc....they are all cash cows for immigration attorneys. Why in any right sense of mind they would advocate for folks to get GC. Its a several billion dollar industry at the end of the day. While they truly advocate for pro non-immigrant visa policies which is a common interest, meaningful long term GC reforms become competing interests so we get pitted against each other. Its like friends with benefits in the short/medium term but a marriage of sorts is out of question... ;)

[Zenzone]

I do not know Greg Sisking. When I went through his twits, they are logical and just to me. If EB was in same situation, we would be worried about dates not moving fast enough The same is true with FB. The only problem is - there is no law that states that DOS must allocate the visas. There is a practical difficulty in moving forward dates - a lot of the folks 6-12 months beyond "current dates" have no realistic chance of getting their background check done etc. So simply moving the dates does nothing.

As per unused visas falling across to EB - the only way that will not happen is by the act of congress. The congress will have to make a new law. In my judgement there is almost zero probability of that happening because it will be such a contentious bill. So I guess EB-I backlogged folks can safely assume that they will see a lot more extra visas next year. But of course strange things have happened in the past ... So don't hold me to this!

Q - This makes sense. But one question. You said - "The only problem is - there is no law that states that DOS must allocate the visas....." If that's true they can simply carryover unused FB visas this year to EB as required by the congressional mandate but choose not to give it to anyone in EB in the next fiscal because allocation is not required. Almost like operation is a success but patient died! Did I interpret this correctly?

[qesehmk]

Q - This makes sense. But one question. You said - "The only problem is - there is no law that states that DOS must allocate the visas....." If that's true they can simply carryover unused FB visas this year to EB as required by the congressional mandate but choose not to give it to anyone in EB in the next fiscal because allocation is not required. Almost like operation is a success but patient died! Did I interpret this correctly?
Theoretically they can do that. But realistically, in EB, there are hundreds of thousands of ready to go backlogged cases (unlike in FB). They are all processed and nothing is waiting other than a visa number. So the chances of all spillover visas going waste is a remote possibility. That is why DoS can control VB dates by 2 5 10 days in case of EB-I. Don't look at it as something sinister. It's just that they are operating within their bounds.

p.s. There is injustice - don't get me wrong. But I am saying DoS and most of US agencies are very very professional and methodical in what they do and how they do it.

[Zenzone]

Theoretically they can do that. But realistically, in EB, there are hundreds of thousands of ready to go backlogged cases (unlike in FB). They are all processed and nothing is waiting other than a visa number. So the chances of all spillover visas going waste is a remote possibility. That is why DoS can control VB dates by 2 5 10 days in case of EB-I. Don't look at it as something sinister. It's just that they are operating within their bounds.

p.s. There is injustice - don't get me wrong. But I am saying DoS and most of US agencies are very very professional and methodical in what they do and how they do it.

Thanks! This is helpful context.

[bloddy1]

H1-B - New potential rule for H1-B Visa holders that can cause a lot of heartache to 60-70% of the people. We should really ramp up our change/activist efforts

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/05/21/trump-minimum-wage-for-h-1b-visa-holders-could-reach-250000-a-year/

[GC-Immigrant]

Theoretically they can do that. But realistically, in EB, there are hundreds of thousands of ready to go backlogged cases (unlike in FB). They are all processed and nothing is waiting other than a visa number. So the chances of all spillover visas going waste is a remote possibility. That is why DoS can control VB dates by 2 5 10 days in case of EB-I. Don't look at it as something sinister. It's just that they are operating within their bounds.

p.s. There is injustice - don't get me wrong. But I am saying DoS and most of US agencies are very very professional and methodical in what they do and how they do it.

I know its too early to ask, based on FB spillover, any chance EB2I will reach first quarter of 2011 coming October or November?

[gcq]

H1-B - New potential rule for H1-B Visa holders that can cause a lot of heartache to 60-70% of the people. We should really ramp up our change/activist efforts

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/05/21/trump-minimum-wage-for-h-1b-visa-holders-could-reach-250000-a-year/

This maybe administrations efforts in response to court order restricting USCIS (https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/05/21/uscis-itserve-settlement-overturns-10-years-of-h-1b-visa-policies/#1be53b365bf4).

[vsivarama]

H1-B - New potential rule for H1-B Visa holders that can cause a lot of heartache to 60-70% of the people. We should really ramp up our change/activist efforts

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/05/21/trump-minimum-wage-for-h-1b-visa-holders-could-reach-250000-a-year/

I don't think this can be done without the rule making process. Moreover this looks more like election propaganda than an actual policy position. The big companies will lobby heavily against it, to protect their financial interests. Nevertheless we need to be on the alert.

[Zenzone]

H1-B - New potential rule for H1-B Visa holders that can cause a lot of heartache to 60-70% of the people. We should really ramp up our change/activist efforts

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/05/21/trump-minimum-wage-for-h-1b-visa-holders-could-reach-250000-a-year/

Looks like it aims to target primarily junior folks in every industry/profession. In my opinion, they would need to amend the INA for this and hence the congress. In many ways, this wage levels have already been significantly scrutinized since 2017 and this will memorialize the practice rather.

[delguy]

I don't think this can be done without the rule making process. Moreover this looks more like election propaganda than an actual policy position. The big companies will lobby heavily against it, to protect their financial interests. Nevertheless we need to be on the alert.

When you look at how it take 10 years to file someone a lawsuit against it, it is kind of unbelievable. You have these tens of thousands of lawyers who were busy satisfying this memo rather than questioning it in courts. Same happened with when denials skyrocketed, it took these shady consilting companirs to come together and file a lawsuit while biggies were simply accepting the rejections without questiioning uscis.

[gcq]

When you look at how it take 10 years to file someone a lawsuit against it, it is kind of unbelievable. You have these tens of thousands of lawyers who were busy satisfying this memo rather than questioning it in courts. Same happened with when denials skyrocketed, it took these shady consilting companirs to come together and file a lawsuit while biggies were simply accepting the rejections without questiioning uscis.
when filing lawsuit, there has to be caution. if for some reason the ruling goes against them and it becomes a precedent, then it is not good. in case of uscis memos, companies should have gone to court much earlier as the memo was invalid against current law on which it was based.
as iong as anti-immigrants are driving administration agenda, they will try to put as many road blocks as possible.

[NJMavarick]

I know its too early to ask, based on FB spillover, any chance EB2I will reach first quarter of 2011 coming October or November?

It depends upon 2 things:

- # of Spillover from FB to EB
- Willingness of CO to apply the spill over.

Its hard to say but Q1 2011 could be a stretch but possible

[vsivarama]

When you look at how it take 10 years to file someone a lawsuit against it, it is kind of unbelievable. You have these tens of thousands of lawyers who were busy satisfying this memo rather than questioning it in courts. Same happened with when denials skyrocketed, it took these shady consilting companirs to come together and file a lawsuit while biggies were simply accepting the rejections without questiioning uscis.

I am not denying what you say. But there is a difference here though. The memo was pushed as an interpretation to the existing law and so no rule making was required. Here they cannot push it as an interpretation to the existing law. Even though the memo was in effect for 10 years there was not necessarily much change in the denial rates and hence no one took much notice until 2018 when the rates rose up sharply as per the new addendum. I have also seen companies which never shared any client letters or project specific details, change their policies to provide them (including SOW details) to their contractors. While the biggies were simply accepting the rejections without questioning uscis, they were also actively making policy changes within their organization to make sure they could retain their workforce. Plus the one being proposed would have a broad reaching implications across every sector regardless of FTE or Contractors etc. This potentially could see a wave of outsourcing. Counting on the free market capitalism core principles to save the day.

[Zenzone]

It depends upon 2 things:

- # of Spillover from FB to EB
- Willingness of CO to apply the spill over.

Its hard to say but Q1 2011 could be a stretch but possible

Not sure Q1 2011 is possible this October, but by next Q3 fiscal it can be. If other things mentioned happen.

[NJMavarick]

Not sure Q1 2011 is possible this October, but by next Q3 fiscal it can be. If other things mentioned happen.

If the spill over number is BIG and its a big IF, there is an outside chance that filing dates can move to Q1 2011. There are plethora of possibilities and simulations for us to run :)

What if we get 70K FB spill over? What if EB3 ROW is current this fiscal? What if CO decides to go aggressive in anticipation of spill over?

No one can accurately predict, however in all probability EB1 folks are poised to reap the benefits

[GC-Immigrant]

It depends upon 2 things:

- # of Spillover from FB to EB
- Willingness of CO to apply the spill over.

Its hard to say but Q1 2011 could be a stretch but possible

Thank You :)

[delguy]

It depends upon 2 things:

- # of Spillover from FB to EB
- Willingness of CO to apply the spill over.

Its hard to say but Q1 2011 could be a stretch but possible

Since we are discussing FB -> EB spillovers. I think it is worth posting what INS language says:

https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=granuleid:USC-prelim-title8-section1151&num=0&edition=prelim

relevant section below:

8 USC 1151: Worldwide level of immigration

(d) Worldwide level of employment-based immigrants
(1) The worldwide level of employment-based immigrants under this subsection for a fiscal year is equal to-

(A) 140,000, plus

(B) the number computed under paragraph (2).


(2)(A) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1992 is zero.

(B) The number computed under this paragraph for fiscal year 1993 is the difference (if any) between the worldwide level established under paragraph (1) for the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under section 1153(b) of this title during that fiscal year.

(C) The number computed under this paragraph for a subsequent fiscal year is the difference (if any) between the maximum number of visas which may be issued under section 1153(a) of this title (relating to family-sponsored immigrants) during the previous fiscal year and the number of visas issued under that section during that year.

[delguy]

As you see above, the language is very clear. In my opinion doesnt leave any scope for alteration using EO or any other method except a change via congress sneaked in one of the stimulus/budget bills.

[Zenzone]

If the spill over number is BIG and its a big IF, there is an outside chance that filing dates can move to Q1 2011. There are plethora of possibilities and simulations for us to run :)

What if we get 70K FB spill over? What if EB3 ROW is current this fiscal? What if CO decides to go aggressive in anticipation of spill over?

No one can accurately predict, however in all probability EB1 folks are poised to reap the benefits

You mean to file this October 2020??

[Zenzone]

As you see above, the language is very clear. In my opinion doesnt leave any scope for alteration using EO or any other method except a change via congress sneaked in one of the stimulus/budget bills.

Yes. That's true. Good you shared the actual language.

[Zenzone]

If the spill over number is BIG and its a big IF, there is an outside chance that filing dates can move to Q1 2011. There are plethora of possibilities and simulations for us to run :)

What if we get 70K FB spill over? What if EB3 ROW is current this fiscal? What if CO decides to go aggressive in anticipation of spill over?

No one can accurately predict, however in all probability EB1 folks are poised to reap the benefits

FB spillover applies to EB 1/2/3 equally. Why you say EB1 will reap in particular. Yes. they may get more vertical SO. I see that advantage but otherwise every category is set to benefit from FB SO and horizontal SO within that category both from AOS and CP cases.

[excalibur123]

FB spillover applies to EB 1/2/3 equally. Why you say EB1 will reap in particular. Yes. they may get more vertical SO. I see that advantage but otherwise every category is set to benefit from FB SO and horizontal SO within that category both from AOS and CP cases.

Also if as per the law the numbers would be 140K plus say 70K - then 210K - so that’s about 50 percent more. So if EB2 earlier moved by 2 months in year, now it would move 3 months. Big whoop ?!!

[Immigo]

Also if as per the law the numbers would be 140K plus say 70K - then 210K - so that’s about 50 percent more. So if EB2 earlier moved by 2 months in year, now it would move 3 months. Big whoop ?!!

Not exactly - the demand for ROW would stay the same, so impact will be bigger. For example, assume EB2 quota goes up from 40K to 65K (Extra 25K). Assuming ROW demand stays at about 30K-35K, EB2-I will get the bulk of the extra visas. The key variable is how big the spillover will be.

[Zenzone]

Also if as per the law the numbers would be 140K plus say 70K - then 210K - so that’s about 50 percent more. So if EB2 earlier moved by 2 months in year, now it would move 3 months. Big whoop ?!!

Quite respectfully, bring us data and not your opinions. Spec and others have done enough analysis on the SO scenarios. I would suggest you reading it. There will be substantial movements across all three categories if SO and allocations materialize.

[Zenzone]

Yes. Case in point here is there is a recession right now and ROW is already current for EB1/2 right now. Anyways, ppl. have done the analysis on this extensively and the gc forecaster also accounts for these changes and scenarios pretty well.

[NJMavarick]

You mean to file this October 2020??

This can happen during Q1 of next fiscal.

I would assume CO would gradually increase the dates as he may not have the complete spill over numbers come October 2020. He will go conservative first and then slowly increase the dates

[NJMavarick]

FB spillover applies to EB 1/2/3 equally. Why you say EB1 will reap in particular. Yes. they may get more vertical SO. I see that advantage but otherwise every category is set to benefit from FB SO and horizontal SO within that category both from AOS and CP cases.

EB1-3 would get 28.6% and 7% to EB 4/5.

EB1 is set to get 4.5 from last year FB spill over, Furthermore, EB1 ROW is current and EB1I demand is not as great as EB2I. So, this year FB spill over + spill over from eb4/5 which they will consume.

[NJMavarick]

As you see above, the language is very clear. In my opinion doesnt leave any scope for alteration using EO or any other method except a change via congress sneaked in one of the stimulus/budget bills.

That is good to know but visas can be wasted. I have no doubt that in an optimistic scenario spill over will be applied but how much of the available is the question! CO is not know to be very aggressive with dates.

Just to add, this year is a big exception! Never in the past history is EB poised to get such a spill over. The number available for EB is going to surpass all the previous years.

[qesehmk]

Never in the past history is EB poised to get such a spill over. The number available for EB is going to surpass all the previous years.
Correction - never in the recent history.

But prior to 2009 it was routine for EB2-I to get 10-20-30K spillover.

Perhaps you are suggesting fall across from FB to EB... if so then that may be correct.

[NJMavarick]

Correction - never in the recent history.

But prior to 2009 it was routine for EB2-I to get 10-20-30K spillover.

Perhaps you are suggesting fall across from FB to EB... if so then that may be correct.

Yup - I am talking about the latter but thanks for confirming!

[excalibur123]

Quite respectfully, bring us data and not your opinions. Spec and others have done enough analysis on the SO scenarios. I would suggest you reading it. There will be substantial movements across all three categories if SO and allocations materialize.

Could you point to where your calculations are for how far the categories can go?
Didn’t mean to belittle your effort but we have seen this movie multiple times. Folks (including myself) get too excited about something and then it turns to nothing. If the powers that be don’t want to move forward the dates there are enough rules to play with and we can’t do jack.

[Zenzone]

Could you point to where your calculations are for how far the categories can go?
Didn’t mean to belittle your effort but we have seen this movie multiple times. Folks (including myself) get too excited about something and then it turns to nothing. If the powers that be don’t want to move forward the dates there are enough rules to play with and we can’t do jack.

Are you aware of the gc forecasting tool?? I got my subscription sometime back. Can anyone post the link here? Using my mobile now and don’t have it handy. Separately, I understand your frustration. Emotions aside, as Q also pointed out in some old posts, there will be good numbers should the administration allocate them next fiscal. Period.

[idliman]

Good Tuesday morning folks. Trump's EO 2.0 is scheduled to be released this week. Ironically the tag line for "2.0" the movie is "Scientists help the government investigate a threat that is beyond understanding." Who's going to be the winner influencing the "Donald"? Is it going to be Miller or Kushner?

Politico link: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/25/trump-broaden-foreign-worker-bans-276510. Just understand that Politico is often accused of being biased in favor of Republicans / Trump. Though this is a topic for a separate debate.

[Zenzone]

Good Tuesday morning folks. Trump's EO 2.0 is scheduled to be released this week. Ironically the tag line for "2.0" the movie is "Scientists help the government investigate a threat that is beyond understanding." Who's going to be the winner influencing the "Donald"? Is it going to be Miller or Kushner?

Politico link: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/25/trump-broaden-foreign-worker-bans-276510. Just understand that Politico is often accused of being biased in favor of Republicans / Trump. Though this is a topic for a separate debate.

Good read. Regardless, there will be restrictions at the end of the day.

[Zenzone]

Good read. Regardless, there will be restrictions at the end of the day.

https://www.thestatesman.com/world/h-1b-and-l-1-visa-reform-act-introduced-in-us-congress-to-give-priority-to-us-educated-foreign-workers-1502891324.html

Not sure about the chance of passing but looks like a bi-partisan effort.

[GC-Immigrant]

AILA, Justice Action Center, and Innovation Law Lab, with pro bono support from Mayer Brown LLP, have filed a lawsuit on behalf of U.S. citizens and LPRs petitioning for their children and derivative relatives to join them in the U.S. who would “age-out” while the administration’s ban is in place.

https://www.aila.org/advo-media/press-releases/2020/civil-rights-coalition-files-lawsuit-to-protect

EB aging out children parents should file a law suite against DOS for wasting EB visas.

[gcq]

Steve King loses primary after racist comments
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/politics/steve-king-iowa-primary-election/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/politics/steve-king-iowa-primary-election/index.html)

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Steve King loses primary after racist comments
https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/politics/steve-king-iowa-primary-election/index.html (https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/02/politics/steve-king-iowa-primary-election/index.html)

Yeah!!! He is a vile human being and hopefully never sniff another position of power.

[idliman]

AILA and the American Immigration Council sent a letter to congressional appropriators urging Congress to appropriate $1.2 billion dollars in temporary funding to USCIS only if the funding includes safeguards related to transparency, accountability, and efficiency. In other words, they want strings (conditions) to be attached to the $1.2B bailout of USCIS.
Link to AILA Letter (https://www.aila.org/advo-media/aila-correspondence/2020/aila-and-aic-letter-to-congressional-appropriators).

The following might affect spillover for backlogged folks.
* Reinstituting the agency’s 2004 “deference” policy, giving adjudicators discretion of when to require in-person interviews, and reusing previously captured biometrics for all form types; (meaning cancelling of interviews)
* Expanding premium processing to other form types (I-539, I-765 and I-485)
* DHS should immediately suspend its public charge rule. (Wishlist; Its not going to happen in Stephen Miller's era)
* Recapture unused green cards (Wishlist; Not going to happen)

Ooh. No mention of 2 year medical test validity waiver during COVID; No mention of I-140 EADs; The original 60 day CP EO issued on April 22nd had a 50 day clock on the next recommendations (which is June 11, 2020). It is very chaotic. A lot of players and lot of goal posts being moved. Next week is going to be a reality show thriller staring the "Donald".

[NJMavarick]

AILA and the American Immigration Council sent a letter to congressional appropriators urging Congress to appropriate $1.2 billion dollars in temporary funding to USCIS only if the funding includes safeguards related to transparency, accountability, and efficiency. In other words, they want strings (conditions) to be attached to the $1.2B bailout of USCIS.
Link to AILA Letter (https://www.aila.org/advo-media/aila-correspondence/2020/aila-and-aic-letter-to-congressional-appropriators).

The following might affect spillover for backlogged folks.
* Reinstituting the agency’s 2004 “deference” policy, giving adjudicators discretion of when to require in-person interviews, and reusing previously captured biometrics for all form types; (meaning cancelling of interviews)
* Expanding premium processing to other form types (I-539, I-765 and I-485)
* DHS should immediately suspend its public charge rule. (Wishlist; Its not going to happen in Stephen Miller's era)
* Recapture unused green cards (Wishlist; Not going to happen)

Ooh. No mention of 2 year medical test validity waiver during COVID; No mention of I-140 EADs; The original 60 day CP EO issued on April 22nd had a 50 day clock on the next recommendations (which is June 11, 2020). It is very chaotic. A lot of players and lot of goal posts being moved. Next week is going to be a reality show thriller staring the "Donald".

Plain optics! This is going nowhere but I would take recapture with two hands (if that is possible)

Thanks for posting though...good read.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Don't know how much of these will come to pass, but there are dark days ahead.

https://www.immigration.net/2020/06/09/immigration-update-rumors-of-proposed-trump-immigration-proclamation-with-serious-negative-news-for-non-immigrants/

[Zenzone]

Don't know how much of these will come to pass, but there are dark days ahead.

https://www.immigration.net/2020/06/09/immigration-update-rumors-of-proposed-trump-immigration-proclamation-with-serious-negative-news-for-non-immigrants/

Literally nothing new in this article. Its basically a full wish list of immigration hawks. Remains to be seen how much of these ideas see the light at the end of the day. Remember we are already in June and any regulatory change will take time for administrative implementation even if comment periods are potentially bypassed (sigh) and the clock is running out. Entry bans through presidential proclamations are possible but expect plenty of carve outs even there. All said and done this is an equally pro-business administration and therefore rhetoric will be super tough but implementations will likely continue be pro-business especially when the election hinges on a swifter economic recovery. Atleast that's what the history says in the past 4 years!

As far as barring entry goes, remember MOST consulates are still closed and there is zero visa issuance (immigrant or non-immigrant). Needless to mention the ban in international travel from MOST countries to/from the USA due to the pandemic. A proclamation nevertheless will make for another political maneuver to please an uneasy base as they run out of bullets to fight the slump seen in the polls especially recently.

[Blue_fairy]

Another EO??

https://www.visalaw.com/new-executive-order-f-h-l-j-nonimmigrant-categories-expected-soon-june-9-2020/

[maverickwild]

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kpollak_urgent-immigration-alert-we-have-heard-activity-6675869314060484608-n_Wn/

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1270064149763108864?s=09


as per the lawyer(s) its going to be at least 90 days.

[Zenzone]

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/kpollak_urgent-immigration-alert-we-have-heard-activity-6675869314060484608-n_Wn/

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1270064149763108864?s=09


as per the lawyer(s) its going to be at least 90 days.

https://www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/2006011_immigrationentrybans_potus.pdf

https://thehill.com/latino/502431-koch-groups-ask-white-house-to-spare-work-visas

As expected US Chamber of Commerce and Koch foundation are revving up their efforts.

[qesehmk]

https://www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/2006011_immigrationentrybans_potus.pdf

https://thehill.com/latino/502431-koch-groups-ask-white-house-to-spare-work-visas

As expected US Chamber of Commerce and Koch foundation are revving up their efforts.

No matter what administration's original position has been ... if Koch asks something ... this administration will make double the effort to make sure that does not happen. Why so? This goes back to Koch's refusal to endorse trump during 2016 primaries. In fairness to Trump, Koch is the personification of American war machine, and Trump ran on anti war platform. So the bottomline is - whatever Koch is asking, not going to happen.

[Zenzone]

No matter what administration's original position has been ... if Koch asks something ... this administration will make double the effort to make sure that does not happen. Why so? This goes back to Koch's refusal to endorse trump during 2016 primaries. In fairness to Trump, Koch is the personification of American war machine, and Trump ran on anti war platform. So the bottomline is - whatever Koch is asking, not going to happen.

Okay! What about The US Chamber of Commerce?? Also, let's then blow the sirens that its doomsday! Its not that either. So I disagree with you. All I'm trying to say is there are many forces in play. Some for and some against.

[qesehmk]

Okay! What about The US Chamber of Commerce?? Also, let's then blow the sirens that its doomsday! Its not that either. So I disagree with you. All I'm trying to say is there are many forces in play. Some for and some against.
That's ok. Ours are just opinions. My opinion is he is going to do all it takes to keep his base energized. And the way to keep base energized is to harp on all fault lines. Immigration is probably the biggest fault line. Ergo ...

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

So DACA survives the Supreme Court test. As an outsider to that process, I do understand the plight of Dreamers. We at least had a definitive choice to come here and make a life but they had no choice and suddenly asked to leave what is their home in every sense. Shame on the people on both sides that they can't have consensus on this to pass a law to address that.

[vsivarama]

So DACA survives the Supreme Court test. As an outsider to that process, I do understand the plight of Dreamers. We at least had a definitive choice to come here and make a life but they had no choice and suddenly asked to leave what is their home in every sense. Shame on the people on both sides that they can't have consensus on this to pass a law to address that.

I second your opinion. But also it comes with a caveat here. Children of legal immigrants who are at the risk of aging out do not have the same advantages as that of illegal folks. So I see a reason why not everyone would sympathize. Personally, I believe both should be afforded the same luxury of staying here.

[qesehmk]

I second your opinion. But also it comes with a caveat here. Children of legal immigrants who are at the risk of aging out do not have the same advantages as that of illegal folks. So I see a reason why not everyone would sympathize. Personally, I believe both should be afforded the same luxury of staying here.
I agree that children are children and in most EB cases also the children only know US as the country they grew up in.

IMHO EB immigrants need to get involved with the broader immigration organizations rather than make this EB vs FB food fight.
If DACA sustains, then it at least creates a moral (not necessarily legal) precedent to sympathize with children of EB immigrants.
By joining hands with FB, EB can create more intensity and focus. Otherwise EB immigration will remain mired in its own cocoon and will get played by the partisan politics.

[idliman]

I am happy that Dreamers won today to face a newer battle that may or may not come up. I have predicted that Supreme Court will uphold the cancellation of the DACA on the grounds that the president has the authority. The Supreme Court did not comment on that authority. They just said that the admin did not follow the right procedure in cancelling DACA. Tomato OR Tometo OR Tammatar OR Thakkali OR Tamata. They are the same thing so DACA recipients win.

If Trump wishes, he can restart the process of cancelling DACA. So the Dreamers win today to face another day. However, I think they will defer that till November unless they run out of options to energize the hard right.

Now with this win, democrats are not going to compromise. Republicans will be saying uphold the Law. Nothing is going to move on the immigration front for the next 2 years or so. Exiting Trump admin in 2nd term or new JB admin will not touch immigration in the first few years of term. Trump admin will be furious and will resort to EO’s. Anything and everything on EO’s (other than travel ban type things already upheld) will be contested in the courts.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I second your opinion. But also it comes with a caveat here. Children of legal immigrants who are at the risk of aging out do not have the same advantages as that of illegal folks. So I see a reason why not everyone would sympathize. Personally, I believe both should be afforded the same luxury of staying here.

Though my children are Americans, I do sympathize with the dependent kids who are always overachieving but are left in the lurch later on. It's not their fault obviously but the issue at hand is the eternal purgatory of the H1 visa. But to say that they don't have "the advantages of illegal folks" does not sit well with me as a majority of them grow up with a lot of privilege and creature comforts that we yearn to provide them as many of us struggled and worked hard and came here to make a new life. A lot of DACA kids in their young life have experienced their parents cower in terror of ICE raids, living in the shadows and being deprived of opportunities. Some have been separated from their parents who were successfully deported or self-deported to escape scrutiny and grew up with relatives or other people. What kind of life is that? I can't imagine living in one country and have my children grow up somewhere else not knowing what's going on in their daily lives, so there is no parallel to children of EB immigrants.

[vsivarama]

Though my children are Americans, I do sympathize with the dependent kids who are always overachieving but are left in the lurch later on. It's not their fault obviously but the issue at hand is the eternal purgatory of the H1 visa. But to say that they don't have "the advantages of illegal folks" does not sit well with me as a majority of them grow up with a lot of privilege and creature comforts that we yearn to provide them as many of us struggled and worked hard and came here to make a new life. A lot of DACA kids in their young life have experienced their parents cower in terror of ICE raids, living in the shadows and being deprived of opportunities. Some have been separated from their parents who were successfully deported or self-deported to escape scrutiny and grew up with relatives or other people. What kind of life is that? I can't imagine living in one country and have my children grow up somewhere else not knowing what's going on in their daily lives, so there is no parallel to children of EB immigrants.

You probably have issue with the language that I used which is a fair critique. But here are the facts on the ground. i) DACA folks have EAD and hence can work for any employer and have better job mobility. There is no EAD that dependent kids can bank on. Even H1 folks do not have the benefits of EAD (for those who have not been able to file for 485). There is also the constant threat of H4-EAD being dismantled. ii) Being on EAD qualifies you to have unemployment benefits whereas no such benefits of being in H1. iii) With the constant RFE's and short term approvals and rejections I would say a lot of H1 folks quality of life hasn't been that spectacular either vs EAD which is a more simpler approval process. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying they do not deserve better. Just saying may be the legal immigrants deserve the same benefits (not more, not less). There should be some incentive to migrate legally (be it asylum, FB etc.) instead of the opposite.

[vsivarama]

I can't imagine living in one country and have my children grow up somewhere else not knowing what's going on in their daily lives, so there is no parallel to children of EB immigrants.

That's exactly what's happening in the EB community. Either give up your dream or risk separation from your kids.

[skpanda]

So DACA survives the Supreme Court test. As an outsider to that process, I do understand the plight of Dreamers. We at least had a definitive choice to come here and make a life but they had no choice and suddenly asked to leave what is their home in every sense. Shame on the people on both sides that they can't have consensus on this to pass a law to address that.

Agree with you on DACA. However I take exception that DACA/Illegal's plight is the sole focus for action of both parties and have not even a word to say about the Legal immigrants plight (especially kids who age out..how is that fair?)!

[bodhi2000]

Can we start some kind of advocacy/protest to prod the CO to do the right thing!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Can we start some kind of advocacy/protest to prod the CO to do the right thing!

Certainly not my call and only a suggestion, but the only reason I visit and post here is because of the advocacy-free conversations :) and it would be great to keep it like that and stick to predictions.

[EB22010Dec]

"Senior administration officials confirm that President Trump signing an executive order that will suspend H-1B, H-2b, H-4 and other temporary visas.. Officials say part of efforts to protect 520,000 jobs and get Americans back to work."

[bikenlalan]

As per the reports out, the ban on immigrant visas has been extended until end of 2020 and will include guest workers like H-1b, H-4, L-1, H-2Bs, J-1.
Looks like more spillover to EB next FY.

[1312011_eb2I]

I agree , no protest and advocacy.

[drop2ocean]

"Senior administration officials confirm that President Trump signing an executive order that will suspend H-1B, H-2b, H-4 and other temporary visas.. Officials say part of efforts to protect 520,000 jobs and get Americans back to work."

WSJ article says


"The restrictions are set to last beyond Oct. 1, the start of the government’s fiscal year, when new H-1B visas in particular tend to be issued.

They also apply to the spouses of H-1B holders, who, because of an Obama-era policy change, are also able to work on visas known as H-4s.

does that mean no extension on H4 EAD ? or no New H4 EAD ?

[NJMavarick]

WSJ article says



does that mean no extension on H4 EAD ? or no New H4 EAD ?

No - This is for new H1s and their dependents (H4) who will need a visa stamped to come into the country. For those who are already in the US, it should not have an impact

[drop2ocean]

Thanks NJMavarick !

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

GSiskind's thread on what's in the EO:

https://twitter.com/gsiskind/status/1275178397816311808

[rocketfast]

Now wtf does this mean: (From EO)

The Secretary of Labor shall, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, as soon as practicable, and consistent with applicable law, consider promulgating regulations or take other appropriate action to ensure that the presence in the United States of aliens who have been admitted or otherwise provided a benefit, or who are seeking admission or a benefit, pursuant to an EB-2 or EB-3 immigrant visa or an H-1B nonimmigrant visa does not disadvantage United States workers in violation of section 212(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1)). The Secretary of Labor shall also undertake, as appropriate, investigations pursuant to section 212(n)(2)(G)(i) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(n)(2)(G)(i)).

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Official release:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/proclamation-suspending-entry-aliens-present-risk-u-s-labor-market-following-coronavirus-outbreak/

[Zenzone]

Now wtf does this mean: (From EO)

The Secretary of Labor shall, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, as soon as practicable, and consistent with applicable law, consider promulgating regulations or take other appropriate action to ensure that the presence in the United States of aliens who have been admitted or otherwise provided a benefit, or who are seeking admission or a benefit, pursuant to an EB-2 or EB-3 immigrant visa or an H-1B nonimmigrant visa does not disadvantage United States workers in violation of section 212(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1)). The Secretary of Labor shall also undertake, as appropriate, investigations pursuant to section 212(n)(2)(G)(i) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(n)(2)(G)(i)).

Its basically saying the PERM and LCA need to be revisited and further tightened when possible as the law peemits.

[asankaran]

Its basically saying the PERM and LCA need to be revisited and further tightened when possible as the law peemits.

Are they saying they would stop/canceling EAD renewals or stop approval of new I-140 ?

[siriyal75]

Does EO effect Travel on EAD/ Advance Parole document? My EAD & Advance parole card is issued in 2019 and valid until 2021.

I have flight tomorrow from India . Kindly advise thank you

I guess you are good, even people with exisintg H1B visa are good.

Here is from lawyers website.

https://www.murthy.com/2020/06/22/newsflash-trump-signing-executive-order-restricting-work-visas-including-h1b-and-l/

[Zenzone]

Are they saying they would stop/canceling EAD renewals or stop approval of new I-140 ?

NO! DOL is primarily instructed to basically look for ways to potentially change LCA and/or labor certification process as allowed in the law (primarily thru rulemaking).

[rocketfast]

Its basically saying the PERM and LCA need to be revisited and further tightened when possible as the law peemits.

There was an article from Jessica Vaughan of CIS a few weeks ago with CIS's wishlist to ban. One of their requests was the need to re-certify already approved PERM as the economy is very different than what it was a few years ago. My sense is that it is hinting at exploring that.

[bodhi2000]

There was an article from Jessica Vaughan of CIS a few weeks ago with CIS's wishlist to ban. One of their requests was the need to re-certify already approved PERM as the economy is very different than what it was a few years ago. My sense is that it is hinting at exploring that.

If they get away with it, I wonder if it will impact folks with pending 485s. Here is an excerpt from her article

We recommend that the president take much bolder steps to help U.S. workers. For example, he should direct the Department of Labor and USCIS to review the labor certifications of thousands of pending employment-based green cards in order to ensure that the employer requests are still justifiable, that the businesses are still viable, and that the foreign workers are still needed at this time. The president should suspend all temporary work visa programs, including seasonal workers and white-collar visa workers, at least until the labor market stabilizes, or until Congress can pass needed reforms.

[optimista]

Posting this Murthy article for people who are looking for more details about today's EO. Thanks.

https://www.murthy.com/2020/06/22/newsflash-trump-signing-executive-order-restricting-work-visas-including-h1b-and-l/

NewsFlash! Trump Signing Executive Order Restricting Work Visas, Including H1B and L
22 Jun 2020
UPDATE: 22 Jun 2020 at 6:27 p.m.
The text of President Trump’s executive order has now been released. Per the order, the following new restrictions are being implemented:

The executive order applies to foreign nationals who seek to enter the United States in H1B, H-4, H2B, L-1, or L-2 status.
The order also applies to those requesting admission in J status “…who are participating in an intern, trainee, teacher, camp counselor, au pair, or summer work travel program, and any alien accompanying or following to join such alien.”
The executive order does NOT apply to anyone who is in the United States as of the effective date of the order, which is 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on June 24, 2020.
The order does NOT apply to anyone who has a valid nonimmigrant visa as of the effective date.
The order does NOT apply to anyone who has “…an official travel document other than a visa (such as a transportation letter, an appropriate boarding foil, or an advance parole document) that is valid on the effective date of this proclamation or issued on any date thereafter that permits him or her to travel to the United States and seek entry or admission.”
The order does NOT apply to “…any alien seeking to enter the United States to provide temporary labor or services essential to the United States food supply chain.”
The order does NOT apply to “…any alien whose entry would be in the national interest….”
This executive order is scheduled to remain in place through December 31, 2020, and may be extended beyond that date.


Original post 22 Jun 2020 at 5:05 p.m.

President Trump is expected to sign an executive order today that will apparently restrict the issuance of new visas in various nonimmigrant categories, including H1B, L-1, and H2B, for the rest of the calendar year. According to the White House, this is being done to protect U.S. workers, following the massive job losses caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

As of the time of this writing, the text of the executive order is not yet available. Therefore, it is difficult to determine precisely what will be restricted by the executive order. As soon as the text is released, a more detailed analysis will be posted on MurthyDotCom.



Copyright © 2020, MURTHY LAW FIRM. All Rights Reserved

[Zenzone]

There was an article from Jessica Vaughan of CIS a few weeks ago with CIS's wishlist to ban. One of their requests was the need to re-certify already approved PERM as the economy is very different than what it was a few years ago. My sense is that it is hinting at exploring that.

These things will require rule-making. So not an immediate impact. Also, how much of these see the light at the end of the day remains to be seen. For example, they could also stratify additional certification requirements only for PERM jobs that are paying below certain wage levels. Anything that's too burdensome administratively on the businesses will face resistance IMO. That said, they may ask employers to attest that the PERM job offer is still intact and the business is viable when the 485 AOS is filed. But they are doing here is to keep this is a focus topic to move the attention from other mainstream negative news cycle. So the rhetoric is (and will be) be charged on these topics as well as other topics that plays into the base until November. Bottom line, reacting to the actual news and not to rumors tends to be helpful during these times!

[Zenzone]

Also for the sake of kicks, this is what Jessica Vaughan actually wanted (full wish list) when the 4/22 ban (prior ban) went into effect ;)

Next, the president's order lists a number of important exceptions to this "suspension". These include:

Green card holders.
Medical workers and researchers applying for immigrant visas, and their families. It is not clear if these applicants can now bypass the long waiting list for family and employment green cards, or if this applies only to those applicants whose turn has arrived. I suspect the former.
Applicants in the aforementioned, extremely controversial, EB-5 program, which is a pet category of Jared Kushner, who leads the White House immigration reform team. For more on this program, see the Center's extensive archive of EB-5 research by my colleague David North.
Spouses, children, and prospective adoptees of U.S. citizens.
Relatives of members of the military.
Afghans and Iraqis who have worked for the U.S. government.
Any other alien whose entry is determined to be in the national interest.

She wanted to ban all of these folks!!

[srimurthy]

Also for the sake of kicks, this is what Jessica Vaughan actually wanted (full wish list) when the 4/22 ban (prior ban) went into effect ;)

Next, the president's order lists a number of important exceptions to this "suspension". These include:

Green card holders.
Medical workers and researchers applying for immigrant visas, and their families. It is not clear if these applicants can now bypass the long waiting list for family and employment green cards, or if this applies only to those applicants whose turn has arrived. I suspect the former.
Applicants in the aforementioned, extremely controversial, EB-5 program, which is a pet category of Jared Kushner, who leads the White House immigration reform team. For more on this program, see the Center's extensive archive of EB-5 research by my colleague David North.
Spouses, children, and prospective adoptees of U.S. citizens.
Relatives of members of the military.
Afghans and Iraqis who have worked for the U.S. government.
Any other alien whose entry is determined to be in the national interest.

She wanted to ban all of these folks!!

If you really want to reduce the unemployment rate, hire all of them into USCIS and that way they can clear the backlogs and also employ the citizens as they are the ones most eligible for govt jobs

[Zenzone]

If the DOL revokes an underlying PERM which can be done at any time it affects the ability to extend h1b based on approved I-140s. I think Obama's AC 21 job portability rule doesn't protect the post 6th year extension in that case. This could be a round about way to potentially disrupt and work around post 6th year h1b extensions based on approved I-140s by making them go through a re-certification.

USCIS Job Portability Rule Takes Effect
UNITED STATES
United States

A new USCIS regulation intended to ease restrictions on job mobility for foreign workers awaiting employment-based permanent residence took effect today. The new rule also establishes grace periods for non-immigrant workers before and after their employment, and provides automatic work authorization extensions to adjustment applicants and certain other classes of foreign nationals who have timely filed for renewal of an employment authorization document (EAD).



The rule codifies USCIS's interpretations of two key statutes, the American Competitiveness in the Twenty-First Century Act (AC21), enacted in 2000, and the American Competitiveness and Workforce Improvement Act (ACWIA), enacted in 1998. It is one of the Obama Administration's key executive actions on employment-based immigration, and is intended to help enable U.S. businesses to retain and develop highly-skilled foreign workers and reduce the burdens of lengthy immigrant visa backlogs on employment-based adjustment applicants.



Key provisions of the final rule are summarized below.



Portability and Priority Date Retention for I-140 Beneficiaries



The new regulation eases the impact of I-140 petition revocations and codifies certain longstanding agency policies on I-140 job portability.



A foreign national whose I-140 petition has been approved for 180 days or more will not have the petition automatically revoked if the employer goes out of business or withdraws the petition on or after January 17, 2017. However, the foreign national will need a new job offer or a new I-140 petition to obtain employment-based permanent residence.



An I-140 beneficiary whose petition is revoked will be able to use the priority date for a subsequent I-140 petition, unless the reason for revocation was fraud, material misrepresentation, invalidation or revocation of the underlying labor certification or material error in the approval of the petition.



Consistent with prior policy, the beneficiary of a pending I-140 will be able to port to new employment after his or her adjustment of status application has been pending for 180 days or more, as long as the pending I-140 petition was approvable when filed and remained approvable for 180 days after the filing of the adjustment application.



Employment Authorization for Certain Approved I-140 Beneficiaries



The regulation allows E-3, H-1B, H-1B1, L-1 and O-1 nonimmigrants with an approved I-140 petition to apply for a one-year employment authorization document if their priority date is backlogged and they can show compelling circumstances to justify the need for employment authorization, such as a medical emergency or significant disruption to the employer.



Grace Periods for Nonimmigrant Workers



E, H-1B, H-1B1, L-1, O-1 and TN nonimmigrants whose employment is terminated early will be accorded one grace period of up to 60 days during each validity period, which will enable them to extend, change or otherwise maintain status or prepare to depart the United States.



Approved E, L-1, and TN nonimmigrants will receive a 10-day grace period before and after their validity period, as is currently available to H-1B, O and P nonimmigrants. They will be able to enter the United States 10 days before their start date to prepare for employment, and will have 10 days at the end of their period of stay to take action to extend, change or otherwise maintain status, or prepare for departure from the United States.



Employment is not authorized during the grace periods, except for H-1B foreign nationals who are porting to new employment.



H-1B Extensions Beyond the Sixth Year



The regulation codifies USCIS's longstanding policies on H-1B extensions beyond the sixth year, with some additional requirements.

Post-sixth year extensions will be available to foreign nationals who are not currently in H-1B status, as long as they previously held that status and remain eligible for an additional period of H-1B admission, consistent with current policy.
An H-1B nonimmigrant will become ineligible for a one-year post-sixth year extension if he or she fails to apply for adjustment of status or an immigrant visa within one year of the date an immigrant visa becomes available to him or her.
A one-year post-sixth year H-1B extension will cease to be available if, at the time the extension is filed, the foreign national's labor certification is no longer valid, his or her I-140 has been denied or revoked or an adjustment application or an immigrant visa has been approved or denied.
An H-1B whose approved I-140 petition is withdrawn 180 days or more after approval will remain eligible for a three-year extension unless the I-140 was withdrawn for fraud, material misrepresentation, material USCIS error, or revocation or invalidation of the underlying labor certification.

[AceMan]

If you really want to reduce the unemployment rate, hire all of them into USCIS and that way they can clear the backlogs and also employ the citizens as they are the ones most eligible for govt jobs

That would be an interesting proposal.

[Zenzone]

In the midst of all other hysteria, this part of the EO is getting little to no mention anywhere. What are the ramifications here? As far as I could research, if DOL revokes a PERM then the I-140 revocation protection from the AC21 rule is lost with it. This will have implications on post 6th year extension. Especially of interest if ppl. are using the post 6th year extension based on an approved PERM/I-140 filed through their previous employer as they likely won't be aware if the DOL has sent a notice of intent to revoke which automatically kicks in if the employer doesn't respond within 30 days. I suspect why any former employer would actually care to act on any such DOL revoke requests and also I'm not sure what happens if that prior employer went out of business. In continuation from my prior posts, I want to ask the pundits here for thoughts!!

(b) The Secretary of Labor shall, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, as soon as practicable, and consistent with applicable law, consider promulgating regulations or take other appropriate action to ensure that the presence in the United States of aliens who have been admitted or otherwise provided a benefit, or who are seeking admission or a benefit, pursuant to an EB-2 or EB-3 immigrant visa or an H-1B nonimmigrant visa does not disadvantage United States workers in violation of section 212(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1)). The Secretary of Labor shall also undertake, as appropriate, investigations pursuant to section 212(n)(2)(G)(i) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(n)(2)(G)(i)).

[srimurthy]

In the midst of all other hysteria, this part of the EO is getting little to no mention anywhere. What are the ramifications here? As far as I could research, if DOL revokes a PERM then the I-140 revocation protection from the AC21 rule is lost with it. This will have implications on post 6th year extension. Especially of interest if ppl. are using the post 6th year extension based on an approved PERM/I-140 filed through their previous employer. In continuation from my prior posts, I want to ask the pundits here for thoughts!!

(b) The Secretary of Labor shall, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, as soon as practicable, and consistent with applicable law, consider promulgating regulations or take other appropriate action to ensure that the presence in the United States of aliens who have been admitted or otherwise provided a benefit, or who are seeking admission or a benefit, pursuant to an EB-2 or EB-3 immigrant visa or an H-1B nonimmigrant visa does not disadvantage United States workers in violation of section 212(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1)). The Secretary of Labor shall also undertake, as appropriate, investigations pursuant to section 212(n)(2)(G)(i) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(n)(2)(G)(i)).

and consistent with applicable law - does this mean that it has to confirm with AC21 portability law?
pursuant to an EB-2 or EB-3 immigrant visa or an H-1B nonimmigrant - this would impact mostly countries that are backlogged meaning India and to some extent China, and why is this not applicable for EB1, is it because they don't need a PERM?

[Zenzone]

and consistent with applicable law - does this mean that it has to confirm with AC21 portability law?
pursuant to an EB-2 or EB-3 immigrant visa or an H-1B nonimmigrant - this would impact mostly countries that are backlogged meaning India and to some extent China, and why is this not applicable for EB1, is it because they don't need a PERM?

Yes. Since EB1 doesn't require a PERM. Regardless, I still believe this will require rule-making from DOL. AC21 rule specifically has language protecting a beneficiary from the previous employer (who filed the underlying PERM) going out of business for instance. So I see quite a few conflicts here. This the problem with painting with a broad brush. In some fashion a proper congressional legislation that makes specific changes to address the abuse in the visa system will be much better served. I see many unintended consequences and collateral damage by this using a shovel instead of a scalpel approach!

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

In the midst of all other hysteria, this part of the EO is getting little to no mention anywhere. What are the ramifications here? As far as I could research, if DOL revokes a PERM then the I-140 revocation protection from the AC21 rule is lost with it. This will have implications on post 6th year extension. Especially of interest if ppl. are using the post 6th year extension based on an approved PERM/I-140 filed through their previous employer as they likely won't be aware if the DOL has sent a notice of intent to revoke which automatically kicks in if the employer doesn't respond within 30 days. I suspect why any former employer would actually care to act on any such DOL revoke requests and also I'm not sure what happens if that prior employer went out of business. In continuation from my prior posts, I want to ask the pundits here for thoughts!!

(b) The Secretary of Labor shall, in consultation with the Secretary of Homeland Security, as soon as practicable, and consistent with applicable law, consider promulgating regulations or take other appropriate action to ensure that the presence in the United States of aliens who have been admitted or otherwise provided a benefit, or who are seeking admission or a benefit, pursuant to an EB-2 or EB-3 immigrant visa or an H-1B nonimmigrant visa does not disadvantage United States workers in violation of section 212(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(5)(A) or (n)(1)). The Secretary of Labor shall also undertake, as appropriate, investigations pursuant to section 212(n)(2)(G)(i) of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1182(n)(2)(G)(i)).

Regulatory changes take time and the admin does not have much time before the election to make a change and tout that change to garner more votes. This is all about votes and the optics leading to that. If there is a Faux news or Breitshart headline saying, "PERMS TO BE RECERTIFIED!!!", most of their readers will be like, "what?!". But if they say, "Americans are getting their jobs back as we are halting visas", it's more simple and gets traction. Not trying to minimize the seriousness of this clause, but the amount of wrangling it will take to unravel the PERM process accounting for all the different scenarios and AC21 rules, they might as well say no EB2/EB3 for the foreseeable future, only EB1 and EB4/5 until things improve which will take some heavy lifting in Congress. That's why it also says "consistent with applicable law" in which case there is no law on the books which easily accomplishes that (I am not a lawyer, just in case). This is modus operandi for this admin from the get go, they will launch something extreme and then settle for something below that but still temper expectations among their base saying hey at least we did this, the previous guy did nothing.

[Zenzone]

Regulatory changes take time and the admin does not have much time before the election to make a change and tout that change to garner more votes. This is all about votes and the optics leading to that. If there is a Faux news or Breitshart headline saying, "PERMS TO BE RECERTIFIED!!!", most of their readers will be like, "what?!". But if they say, "Americans are getting their jobs back as we are halting visas", it's more simple and gets traction. Not trying to minimize the seriousness of this clause, but the amount of wrangling it will take to unravel the PERM process accounting for all the different scenarios and AC21 rules, they might as well say no EB2/EB3 for the foreseeable future, only EB1 and EB4/5 until things improve which will take some heavy lifting in Congress. That's why it also says "consistent with applicable law" in which case there is no law on the books which easily accomplishes that (I am not a lawyer, just in case). This is modus operandi for this admin from the get go, they will launch something extreme and then settle for something below that but still temper expectations among their base saying hey at least we did this, the previous guy did nothing.

100% agree. I just played out a scenario. As stated in my previous post, all these measures will have to go through rule-making. Its way more rhetoric than anything at this point.

[eaglenow]

First of all certified Perms cannot be revoked without cause. In other words, unless they find misrepresentation or fraud and prove it, the certifications cannot be revoked. The employer has spent time and money to go through the process and the admin cannot arbitrarily ask them to go through it again unless they are willing to spend the money on behalf of employer. Retroactive application of laws is unconstitutional and in this case, it will have to be done through rule making.

Also, the validity of certifications is codified in law through AC21, but only for those who have already filed 485, at least that is the current interpretation. The Obama admin went the regulation route to add few more protections, but did not go far enough to allow people to file 485 when dates are not current. They originally planned to do that but backed out after their DAPA was met with court challenge.

Worst case, even if the admin goes through rule making, my guess is it would apply for new applications. Having said that, the admin can do anything as there is no precedent for the current admins norms.

My guess is admin will try to rework wage levels to maybe 3 instead of the current 4 levels. They may also push for increasing the wage level with every extension to account for the experience or can force labor market test if staying at same level.

All we can do is guess at this time. There are numerous scenarios that may or may not pan out.

Let’s wait and see how this all plays out.

[Zenzone]

First of all certified Perms cannot be revoked without cause. In other words, unless they find misrepresentation or fraud and prove it, the certifications cannot be revoked. The employer has spent time and money to go through the process and the admin cannot arbitrarily ask them to go through it again unless they are willing to spend the money on behalf of employer. Retroactive application of laws is unconstitutional and in this case, it will have to be done through rule making.

Also, the validity of certifications is codified in law through AC21, but only for those who have already filed 485, at least that is the current interpretation. The Obama admin went the regulation route to add few more protections, but did not go far enough to allow people to file 485 when dates are not current. They originally planned to do that but backed out after their DAPA was met with court challenge.

Worst case, even if the admin goes through rule making, my guess is it would apply for new applications. Having said that, the admin can do anything as there is no precedent for the current admins norms.

My guess is admin will try to rework wage levels to maybe 3 instead of the current 4 levels. They may also push for increasing the wage level with every extension to account for the experience or can force labor market test if staying at same level.

All we can do is guess at this time. There are numerous scenarios that may or may not pan out.

Let’s wait and see how this all plays out.

Here is some commentary from Stuart Anderson in Forbes -

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/06/25/trump-may-attempt-to-force-long-time-h-1b-visa-holders-out-of-us/#253d2b7a3ce5

Key excerpts. I'm not a lawyer but I would like to get the views of Oracles here or even Q -

1) First, section 212(a)(5)(A) states that a labor certification should be done “at the time of application for a visa and admission.” Wasden said, “There is nothing in the statute that anticipates a continuing labor market test.”

2) American Competitiveness in the 21st Century Act, passed in 2000, Congress included specific provisions to protect workers who went through labor certification and needed to wait inside the United States (and continue working) until an immigrant visa became available. If an application for adjustment of status has been filed, employers can file extensions for H-1B visa holders to remain beyond 6 years “if 365 days or more have elapsed since – (1) the filing of a labor certification application on the alien’s behalf . . . or (2) the filing of the petition under such section 204(b).”

“There is clear statutory language and direction from Congress, which created provisions to allow workers to stay in the country while they wait for their green card,” said Wasden. “A proposed regulation as indicated in the proclamation would nullify the work of Congress, and I don’t think that will work out well for the government if they try and do that.”

[eaglenow]

1. There is specific statute about long pending adjustment applications, which explicitly specifies that once 485 stays pending beyond 180 days, the certification will continue to be valid for same or similar jobs. So they cannot revoke certifications for pending 485.

2. For others, it is certainly gray area, but as mentioned by the lawyer above, it can be challenged as the previous regulation stipulates that labor cert is valid for 180 days for filing 140 and expires after that IF 140 is not filed by that time. But there is no regulation that states that labor will expire after filing 140 within the 180 day window. This is due to how the statute is interpreted through current regulations. But one caveat is the “at the time of filing and admission” in statute. This is reason for 140 time window from labor. If they change this to 485 filing, it would get murky.

But doing so now is basically reversing previous regulation. They have to consider the impact of this and evaluate the same similar to reasoning of DACA. This is basically reversing of rules with retroactive effect. This can be done but will be challenged in court.

3. What they can do is enable this for future filings and labor. Again it may be challenged but the impact is not retroactive, which may or may not be turned down by courts.

4. What they can do is rework wage levels to 3 instead of 4, this will in turn raise the average wage.

5. Another provision they could implement is rise in wage level commensurate with experience. So if filed in level 1 for first time, the next extension could force level 2 and so on. If not force a labor test.

There are a few other remote scenarios. But in a nutshell, I think 1 is no go, 2 very difficult, if not impossible, 3 is difficult but possible, will be challenged in court, 4 and 5 pretty likely with 5 kinds stretching it.

The other scenario could be based on wage levels, they can determine whether to recertify.

All of these are speculations, but With this admin anything goes. We can only hope US will remain fair and not do things retroactively.

[bloddy1]

The article states lca/perm certifications can be revoled or expired.
Can it be done? As both are legal documents without an expiry date. If so, is EAD also impacted or just h1b?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/06/25/trump-may-attempt-to-force-long-time-h-1b-visa-holders-out-of-us/#7f639b933ce5

[Zenzone]

The article states lca/perm certifications can be revoled or expired.
Can it be done? As both are legal documents without an expiry date. If so, is EAD also impacted or just h1b?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/06/25/trump-may-attempt-to-force-long-time-h-1b-visa-holders-out-of-us/#7f639b933ce5

Did you see that I posted the same article above and we did have discussions about it. I would encourage you to read above :).

[Zenzone]

1. There is specific statute about long pending adjustment applications, which explicitly specifies that once 485 stays pending beyond 180 days, the certification will continue to be valid for same or similar jobs. So they cannot revoke certifications for pending 485.

2. For others, it is certainly gray area, but as mentioned by the lawyer above, it can be challenged as the previous regulation stipulates that labor cert is valid for 180 days for filing 140 and expires after that IF 140 is not filed by that time. But there is no regulation that states that labor will expire after filing 140 within the 180 day window. This is due to how the statute is interpreted through current regulations. But one caveat is the “at the time of filing and admission” in statute. This is reason for 140 time window from labor. If they change this to 485 filing, it would get murky.

But doing so now is basically reversing previous regulation. They have to consider the impact of this and evaluate the same similar to reasoning of DACA. This is basically reversing of rules with retroactive effect. This can be done but will be challenged in court.

3. What they can do is enable this for future filings and labor. Again it may be challenged but the impact is not retroactive, which may or may not be turned down by courts.

4. What they can do is rework wage levels to 3 instead of 4, this will in turn raise the average wage.

5. Another provision they could implement is rise in wage level commensurate with experience. So if filed in level 1 for first time, the next extension could force level 2 and so on. If not force a labor test.

There are a few other remote scenarios. But in a nutshell, I think 1 is no go, 2 very difficult, if not impossible, 3 is difficult but possible, will be challenged in court, 4 and 5 pretty likely with 5 kinds stretching it.

The other scenario could be based on wage levels, they can determine whether to recertify.

All of these are speculations, but With this admin anything goes. We can only hope US will remain fair and not do things retroactively.

I think its the immigrant intent that's the question here. It is clear from the statute that the Congress clearly had an intent to keep H1Bs post 6 years until their LPR is approved (Remember: H1B is a dual intent visa). Period! Courts take that seriously if retroactive harm is made. Also, needless to say the class action lawsuits by both employee and employer groups that will follow (remember H4 EAD revocation which was once thought to be lame duck for revocation is still facing so much legal roadblocks after almost 4 years). Also, if it was that simple with this administration it would have already happened!!

Last but not the least, as an eternal optimist I would also point out that there is an election in about 120 days and who knows we might be having totally different conversations after that!

Additional read: http://blog.cyrusmehta.com/2018/01/no-win-immigration-policy-denying-h-1b-extensions-to-skilled-workers-from-india-so-that-they-self-deport.html

I found this legal analysis of sections 104(C) and 106(a) of INA that came into effect through the American Competitiveness in the 21st Century Act (AC21). I talks about congressional intent and prior legal precedence on causing retroactive harm. Although this time around the administration may take the DOL route instead of the active DHS path it may have tried in 2017/2018 the intent is just the same. Somehow get rid of millions of legal immigrants waiting in line to adjust which is the case in point here.

[Zenzone]

1. There is specific statute about long pending adjustment applications, which explicitly specifies that once 485 stays pending beyond 180 days, the certification will continue to be valid for same or similar jobs. So they cannot revoke certifications for pending 485.

2. For others, it is certainly gray area, but as mentioned by the lawyer above, it can be challenged as the previous regulation stipulates that labor cert is valid for 180 days for filing 140 and expires after that IF 140 is not filed by that time. But there is no regulation that states that labor will expire after filing 140 within the 180 day window. This is due to how the statute is interpreted through current regulations. But one caveat is the “at the time of filing and admission” in statute. This is reason for 140 time window from labor. If they change this to 485 filing, it would get murky.

But doing so now is basically reversing previous regulation. They have to consider the impact of this and evaluate the same similar to reasoning of DACA. This is basically reversing of rules with retroactive effect. This can be done but will be challenged in court.

3. What they can do is enable this for future filings and labor. Again it may be challenged but the impact is not retroactive, which may or may not be turned down by courts.

4. What they can do is rework wage levels to 3 instead of 4, this will in turn raise the average wage.

5. Another provision they could implement is rise in wage level commensurate with experience. So if filed in level 1 for first time, the next extension could force level 2 and so on. If not force a labor test.

There are a few other remote scenarios. But in a nutshell, I think 1 is no go, 2 very difficult, if not impossible, 3 is difficult but possible, will be challenged in court, 4 and 5 pretty likely with 5 kinds stretching it.

The other scenario could be based on wage levels, they can determine whether to recertify.

All of these are speculations, but With this admin anything goes. We can only hope US will remain fair and not do things retroactively.

"For others, it is certainly gray area, but as mentioned by the lawyer above, it can be challenged as the previous regulation stipulates that labor cert is valid for 180 days for filing 140 and expires after that IF 140 is not filed by that time. But there is no regulation that states that labor will expire after filing 140 within the 180 day window. This is due to how the statute is interpreted through current regulations. But one caveat is the “at the time of filing and admission” in statute. This is reason for 140 time window from labor. If they change this to 485 filing, it would get murky."

I disagree with you. This is not a grey area.

104(c) clearly states that three year extensions can be granted indefinitely until the “alien’s application for adjustment of status has been processed and a decision made thereon.” For the folks who have an approved I-140, a formal I-485 has not been filed because the priority date is not yet current due to the very same INA's 7% country cap for immigrant visas. Only when the PD gets current the alien will/can legally file for adjustment. Until the AOS is filed it can't be processed and decision cannot be made as a result until all of that happen (filing, processing and approval) h1b extensions should be granted. Also, USCIS as an agency for the past 2 decades set a precedence for that so to retroactively change it will be considered capricious and arbitrary clearly. Also, it will directly strike the heart of do no universal harm doctrine for drafting regulations by courts.

[qesehmk]

Trump May Attempt To Force Long-Time H-1B Visa Holders Out Of U.S.https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/06/25/trump-may-attempt-to-force-long-time-h-1b-visa-holders-out-of-us/#5ab925573ce5 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/06/25/trump-may-attempt-to-force-long-time-h-1b-visa-holders-out-of-us/#5ab925573ce5)

[Zenzone]

Trump May Attempt To Force Long-Time H-1B Visa Holders Out Of U.S.https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/06/25/trump-may-attempt-to-force-long-time-h-1b-visa-holders-out-of-us/#5ab925573ce5 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/stuartanderson/2020/06/25/trump-may-attempt-to-force-long-time-h-1b-visa-holders-out-of-us/#5ab925573ce5)

Q - I shared the same article above yesterday @ 10:29 AM and we have been having a few back and forth discussion on that. Your thoughts are welcome!

[qesehmk]

Q - I shared the same article above yesterday @ 10:29 AM and we have been having a few back and forth discussion on that. Your thoughts are welcome!oops! I am so behind the curve I guess!

The only thing I will add is - with this president - there are no rules and no limits. It will be foolish to discount this threat. Today's rumor could very well become tomorrows news. Don't even try to rationalize this ...he has used Covid to expand restrictions unnecessarily. If you notice the DOS suspended consulates 1 month before Trump proclamation. He immediately seized the opportunity and claimed victory and passed it off as his idea. The first proclamation was nothing but reiteration and temporary continuation of status quo as forced by COVID. But now that they have tasted blood - here comes proclamation 2. And now we are hearing this.

As much as I wish this were untrue - my suggestion is - treat this as a real possibility and plan accordingly.

[Zenzone]

oops! I am so behind the curve I guess!

The only thing I will add is - with this president - there are no rules and no limits. It will be foolish to discount this threat. Today's rumor could very well become tomorrows news. Don't even try to rationalize this ...he has used Covid to expand restrictions unnecessarily. If you notice the DOS suspended consulates 1 month before Trump proclamation. He immediately seized the opportunity and claimed victory and passed it off as his idea. The first proclamation was nothing but reiteration and temporary continuation of status quo as forced by COVID. But now that they have tasted blood - here comes proclamation 2. And now we are hearing this.

As much as I wish this were untrue - my suggestion is - treat this as a real possibility and plan accordingly.

Yes. But there is legality involved here as this won't be about entry of immigrants that can be curtailed by just a proclamation. Anyways, agree that its always good to be prepared as such. Although, I don't really know what it means to be "prepared".

[srimurthy]

Yes. But there is legality involved here as this won't be about entry of immigrants that can be curtailed by just a proclamation. Anyways, agree that its always good to be prepared as such. Although, I don't really know what it means to be "prepared".

I guess liquidate and ready to pack. The worst part for that 350K + 350K comes when they start talking about the kids. And what is the incentive for any one coming to do masters here. 50% of the students do masters because the value of bachelors is minimal in India and as a way to get into some IT or consulting with H1, so this will have a spiraling impact on universities and stuff over a period of time. But I guess who wants to look at the long term, its a matter of what you can market and sell at this moment.

[qesehmk]

Yes. But there is legality involved here as this won't be about entry of immigrants that can be curtailed by just a proclamation. Anyways, agree that its always good to be prepared as such. Although, I don't really know what it means to be "prepared".
Imagine this - Trump just had michael flynn get off the hook after admitting twice to lying. Just follow the commentary of prosecutors all over the country. People are aghast that the whole justice system is going haywire. Speaking of immigrants, they have no power. All stars are aligned against them. What chance they may stand once Trump tries to subvert existing laws?

Sorry to be dismal. But what I mean by "be prepared" is - if i were in this situation - I would
1) Stay liquid.
2) Not buy home
3) have a child if you were postponing
etc etc ... everyone make your own determination ....

Also please don't panic. This is still just a rumor.

[qesehmk]

I guess liquidate and ready to pack. The worst part for that 350K + 350K comes when they start talking about the kids. And what is the incentive for any one coming to do masters here. 50% of the students do masters because the value of bachelors is minimal in India and as a way to get into some IT or consulting with H1, so this will have a spiraling impact on universities and stuff over a period of time. But I guess who wants to look at the long term, its a matter of what you can market and sell at this moment.
Sri - in my own family in India - my brother's son is admitted to a top US university and my counsin's son admitted to another top univ -- both for masters. They received no scholarship or assistantship and are going to pay full out of state tuition. I am shocked. I myself obtained an MBA pretty much free back in 2000s! In fact I earned and saved money while doing an MBA.

I guess this actually will have positive impact on India by retaining talent back home. But for the people who are in Limbo - this is very stressful.

[Zenzone]

Imagine this - Trump just had michael flynn get off the hook after admitting twice to lying. Just follow the commentary of prosecutors all over the country. People are aghast that the whole justice system is going haywire. Immigrants have no power. All stars are aligned against.

Sorry to be dismal. But what I mean by be prepared is - if i were in this situation - is I would
1) stay liquid.
2) Not buy home
3) have a child if you were postponing
etc etc ... everyone make your own determination ....

Also please don't panic. This is still just a rumor.

Its easy to say this. I would treat this as a rumor AND NOTHING MORE as of now. When panic meter goes up it crosses irrationality levels very quick. Also pardoning Flynn is very different from what we are talking about. Anyways I won't argue with you. One of the reasons why I liked this forum is because it was lot more rational (I thought) and less emotion based.

[qesehmk]

Its easy to say this. I would treat this as a rumor AND NOTHING MORE as of now. When panic meter goes up it crosses irrationality levels very quick. Also pardoning Flynn is very different from what we are talking about. Anyways I won't argue with you. One of the reasons why I liked this forum because it was lot more rational (I thought) and less emotion based.
Of course Zen. These are just opinions ... Everyone is wise to make their own determinations. Take it easy!

[sportsfan33]

I can tell you with certainty that the draconian H1B pipe dream of Stephen Miller has 0% chance of passing.

Practically speaking - business will cease to function in the US.

I work for a fairly large organization in the DMV area. My team has ~14 members, 11 of them are contractors on the H1B. If there was a wide H1B impacting move, overnight, the whole thing will collapse. Our team also does important work (so I would like to think) that feeds into the organization which itself does important work (so I would like to believe). Without the H1B brains powering this rocket, it ain't taking off. It will just crash and burn.

I am not a political partisan. I have trained myself very painfully over the years to objectively analyze data. (On a separate topic, I didn't used to be like this - I was very emotional and only argued things one way). I can see objectively there are certain painful things the administration must do to curtail the abuse of the system, and increase the economic opportunity for the American citizens. The kind of immigration abuses I have seen over the years have been nothing short of scandalous and embarrassing (if their true extent were to come out and completely understood by the American people).

But you know what? I have seen the bad apples in the system overwhelmingly outweighed by the good apples. By and large, people are honest, hardworking and smart. They will appreciate the opportunity, take that opportunity to better themselves, and when enough of them do it in large numbers, that creates the engine of innovation and economic prosperity - this is the pinnacle of the US tradition and the essence of America.

While there are horrible and ugly things about the Democrats (the latest Obama scandal non-withstanding - on a separate topic, I am sure all presidents have spied on their opponents - remains to be seen how much this controversy holds up), it seems like Republicans/Trump are simply incapable or even unwilling to understand what has worked for America. I cannot shake the feeling that there could be deep rooted bias and racism under the hood quite plainly. People will tolerate BLM protests, they will tolerate statues toppling, and they might even tolerate governors telling them to wear masks in public (the horror!!). But one thing that will scare the shit out of all - the prospects on hard right to gain and consolidate any kind of meaningful power. I know several openly Republican Desis and even they will shit their pants if they can even comprehend what this means to their lives.

No, the H1Bs are too entrenched, the numbers are too big, and the prospect of damage to the business at large and localities everywhere (in form of nosediving house prices and lost tax revenue) completely prohibit the Stephen Miller/NumbersUSA pipe dream from becoming a reality.

One can hope.

[Zenzone]

Of course Zen. These are just opinions ... Everyone is wise to make their own determinations. Take it easy!

No worries. I think many of us are used to pack up and leave suggestions that are made in Trackit for example. I personally don't take them seriously. Peace!

[Zenzone]

I can tell you with certainty that the draconian H1B pipe dream of Stephen Miller has 0% chance of passing.

Practically speaking - business will cease to function in the US.

I work for a fairly large organization in the DMV area. My team has ~14 members, 11 of them are contractors on the H1B. If there was a wide H1B impacting move, overnight, the whole thing will collapse. Our team also does important work (so I would like to think) that feeds into the organization which itself does important work (so I would like to believe). Without the H1B brains powering this rocket, it ain't taking off. It will just crash and burn.

I am not a political partisan. I have trained myself very painfully over the years to objectively analyze data. (On a separate topic, I didn't used to be like this - I was very emotional and only argued things one way). I can see objectively there are certain painful things the administration must do to curtail the abuse of the system, and increase the economic opportunity for the American citizens. The kind of immigration abuses I have seen over the years have been nothing short of scandalous and embarrassing (if their true extent were to come out and completely understood by the American people).

But you know what? I have seen the bad apples in the system overwhelmingly outweighed by the good apples. By and large, people are honest, hardworking and smart. They will appreciate the opportunity, take that opportunity to better themselves, and when enough of them do it in large numbers, that creates the engine of innovation and economic prosperity - this is the pinnacle of the US tradition and the essence of America.

While there are horrible and ugly things about the Democrats (the latest Obama scandal non-withstanding - on a separate topic, I am sure all presidents have spied on their opponents - remains to be seen how much this controversy holds up), it seems like Republicans/Trump are simply incapable or even unwilling to understand what has worked for America. I cannot shake the feeling that there could be deep rooted bias and racism under the hood quite plainly. People will tolerate BLM protests, they will tolerate statues toppling, and they might even tolerate governors telling them to wear masks in public (the horror!!). But one thing that will scare the shit out of all - the prospects on hard right to gain and consolidate any kind of meaningful power. I know several openly Republican Desis and even they will shit their pants if they can even comprehend what this means to their lives.

No, the H1Bs are too entrenched, the numbers are too big, and the prospect of damage to the business at large and localities everywhere (in form of nosediving house prices and lost tax revenue) completely prohibit the Stephen Miller/NumbersUSA pipe dream from becoming a reality.

One can hope.

Agree that! We are 120+ days from the election and being purely rational here it takes longer than that to do rule-making. Another important tactical point to not forget. Separately, if polls are any close to the semblance of truth there is no chance for the hard right to consolidate their powers.

[qesehmk]

No worries. I think many of us are used to pack up and leave suggestions that are made in Trackit for example. I personally don't take them seriously. Peace!
Seriously? That's what you read in my post?

[Zenzone]

Seriously? That's what you read in my post?

Oops...My tone is lost in my text I guess. I was literally typin that wid a chcuckle. Not at all buddy. I know you have so much empathy (and now more emotion) perhaps :)

[qesehmk]

I can tell you with certainty that the draconian H1B pipe dream of Stephen Miller has 0% chance of passing.

Practically speaking - business will cease to function in the US.

I work for a fairly large organization in the DMV area. My team has ~14 members, 11 of them are contractors on the H1B. If there was a wide H1B impacting move, overnight, the whole thing will collapse. Our team also does important work (so I would like to think) that feeds into the organization which itself does important work (so I would like to believe). Without the H1B brains powering this rocket, it ain't taking off. It will just crash and burn.

I am not a political partisan. I have trained myself very painfully over the years to objectively analyze data. (On a separate topic, I didn't used to be like this - I was very emotional and only argued things one way). I can see objectively there are certain painful things the administration must do to curtail the abuse of the system, and increase the economic opportunity for the American citizens. The kind of immigration abuses I have seen over the years have been nothing short of scandalous and embarrassing (if their true extent were to come out and completely understood by the American people).

But you know what? I have seen the bad apples in the system overwhelmingly outweighed by the good apples. By and large, people are honest, hardworking and smart. They will appreciate the opportunity, take that opportunity to better themselves, and when enough of them do it in large numbers, that creates the engine of innovation and economic prosperity - this is the pinnacle of the US tradition and the essence of America.

While there are horrible and ugly things about the Democrats (the latest Obama scandal non-withstanding - on a separate topic, I am sure all presidents have spied on their opponents - remains to be seen how much this controversy holds up), it seems like Republicans/Trump are simply incapable or even unwilling to understand what has worked for America. I cannot shake the feeling that there could be deep rooted bias and racism under the hood quite plainly. People will tolerate BLM protests, they will tolerate statues toppling, and they might even tolerate governors telling them to wear masks in public (the horror!!). But one thing that will scare the shit out of all - the prospects on hard right to gain and consolidate any kind of meaningful power. I know several openly Republican Desis and even they will shit their pants if they can even comprehend what this means to their lives.

No, the H1Bs are too entrenched, the numbers are too big, and the prospect of damage to the business at large and localities everywhere (in form of nosediving house prices and lost tax revenue) completely prohibit the Stephen Miller/NumbersUSA pipe dream from becoming a reality.

One can hope.

Extremely well written Sport. I am more or less in the same camp as you.

However, my faith in Market having positive influence over DC is shaken of late.

Trump administration has taken so many decisions social economic geopolitical that are suicidal irrational. He has waged war against Bezos. Under normal circumstances politicians are incredibly in line with big money because money could easily sway elections. But trump is not subject to that and thus is a dark horse free to do what he wants. Thus they (big money) is all falling in line. There doesn't seem be the invisible hand of the rich and the powerful. Zuckerberg has all but surrendered to the right wing and if you notice, Musk who famously resigned from Trump's economic advisory council, is now twitting "Take the red pill" (a code word for "move to the right"). So I am no longer sure about America's ability in the short term to be discerning about its own strengths. The times are very turbulent.

[qesehmk]

Oops...My tone is lost in my text I guess. I was literally typin that wid a chcuckle. Not at all buddy. I know you have so much empathy (and now more emotion) perhaps :)
We are good. :)

I have always believed in power of emotion! Of course its a two edged sword. As you observed, our opinions are one thing. But our goal in this forum is to have a constructive discussion so that immigrants don't feel lost. If they have some clarity and some sense of brotherhood - the forum is on the right path.

[Zenzone]

We are good. :)

I have always believed in power of emotion! Of course its a two edged sword. As you observed, our opinions are one thing. But our goal in this forum is to have a constructive discussion so that immigrants don't feel lost. If they have some clarity and some sense of brotherhood - the forum is on the right path.

Having that peer support through a forum of like minded people is a proven coping mechanism. So I thank you for finding us all such a place.

[vedu]

No worries. I think many of us are used to pack up and leave suggestions that are made in Trackit for example. I personally don't take them seriously. Peace!

To be fair to Q, he wasn't suggesting packing up. He was simply giving some suggestions on how to be "prepared", and that too when you asked for them in your previous post! And his suggestions are all great!

[Zenzone]

To be fair to Q, he wasn't suggesting packing up. He was simply giving some suggestions on how to be "prepared", and that too when you asked for them in your previous post! And his suggestions are all great!

I think we are squared away now.

[srimurthy]

Sri - in my own family in India - my brother's son is admitted to a top US university and my counsin's son admitted to another top univ -- both for masters. They received no scholarship or assistantship and are going to pay full out of state tuition. I am shocked. I myself obtained an MBA pretty much free back in 2000s! In fact I earned and saved money while doing an MBA.

I guess this actually will have positive impact on India by retaining talent back home. But for the people who are in Limbo - this is very stressful.

Q - The cream and people highly into academics will come no matter what, as they are chasing their dreams. People with money back home will come too and this block has increased for sure in the last 20 years. And Indians usually don't back down from spending on education.
And about the tuition those days are gone, I doubt kids born here and going to college now or in future can come out without paying anything.

Limbo is what is stressful and that waiting line is increasing for the people in Limbo.

[qesehmk]

I think we are squared away now.
We were always squared. :) Besides I am now much older than many of you and a word here and there shouldn't bother me. Cheers.

[Zenzone]

We were always squared. :) Besides I am now much older than many of you and a word here and there shouldn't bother me. Cheers.

Cool! Also, many of us are not young either ;)

[vsivarama]

Trump administration has taken so many decisions social economic geopolitical that are suicidal irrational. He has waged war against Bezos. Under normal circumstances politicians are incredibly in line with big money because money could easily sway elections. But trump is not subject to that and thus is a dark horse free to do what he wants. Thus they (big money) is all falling in line. There doesn't seem be the invisible hand of the rich and the powerful. Zuckerberg has all but surrendered to the right wing and if you notice, Musk who famously resigned from Trump's economic advisory council, is now twitting "Take the red pill" (a code word for "move to the right"). So I am no longer sure about America's ability in the short term to be discerning about its own strengths. The times are very turbulent.


My two cents here. Businesses will look the other way as long as they are not being hurt financially. I honestly feel this is an attempt by the administration to throw everything and see what sticks to the wall so that they can message that to their supporters. DC will never get bigger than Market. Market will go along and bend the knee as long as their financial ecosystem is not disturbed. If the businesses feel financially threatened they will stop giving money to the campaign (This campaign is not grass roots funded and hence it relies heavily on market to raise money). Worse yet the big business may form a super pac and work against DC. Key indications should be JB fund raising numbers off late. All the old timers have probably already bought houses and made plans around a life in US. So while being liquid is a good idea, I do not think it helps the old timers who are neck deep in this. For me personally, I would still want to believe the market will get in the way and worry about the consequences later (maybe that's the defense mechanism kicking in to retain my sanity). Plus 2020 has been such a s**t storm we are all better served being hopeful.

[need4speed]

My two cents here. Businesses will look the other way as long as they are not being hurt financially. I honestly feel this is an attempt by the administration to throw everything and see what sticks to the wall so that they can message that to their supporters. DC will never get bigger than Market. Market will go along and bend the knee as long as their financial ecosystem is not disturbed. If the businesses feel financially threatened they will stop giving money to the campaign (This campaign is not grass roots funded and hence it relies heavily on market to raise money). Worse yet the big business may form a super pac and work against DC. Key indications should be JB fund raising numbers off late. All the old timers have probably already bought houses and made plans around a life in US. So while being liquid is a good idea, I do not think it helps the old timers who are neck deep in this. For me personally, I would still want to believe the market will get in the way and worry about the consequences later (maybe that's the defense mechanism kicking in to retain my sanity). Plus 2020 has been such a s**t storm we are all better served being hopeful.

Whether we like it or not, the truth is more prosaic, you don't need a scalpel to understand it. The halcyon days of H1B are over. It may very well be an attempt to remove the pebble under the boulder. "Being prepared" ordeal deserves more attention. If we stick together, we might be able to come up with an impressive roster of technology and US expertise, what can we do with it in India?

[Zenzone]

My two cents here. Businesses will look the other way as long as they are not being hurt financially. I honestly feel this is an attempt by the administration to throw everything and see what sticks to the wall so that they can message that to their supporters. DC will never get bigger than Market. Market will go along and bend the knee as long as their financial ecosystem is not disturbed. If the businesses feel financially threatened they will stop giving money to the campaign (This campaign is not grass roots funded and hence it relies heavily on market to raise money). Worse yet the big business may form a super pac and work against DC. Key indications should be JB fund raising numbers off late. All the old timers have probably already bought houses and made plans around a life in US. So while being liquid is a good idea, I do not think it helps the old timers who are neck deep in this. For me personally, I would still want to believe the market will get in the way and worry about the consequences later (maybe that's the defense mechanism kicking in to retain my sanity). Plus 2020 has been such a s**t storm we are all better served being hopeful.

Fully agree! End of the day following the money trail is the best strategy to reason out what’s true and wats a mirage. I do feel deeply for folks who are beyond 2011 PDs. I hope things change and this is the bottom.

[excalibur123]

I can tell you with certainty that the draconian H1B pipe dream of Stephen Miller has 0% chance of passing.

Practically speaking - business will cease to function in the US.

I work for a fairly large organization in the DMV area. My team has ~14 members, 11 of them are contractors on the H1B. If there was a wide H1B impacting move, overnight, the whole thing will collapse. Our team also does important work (so I would like to think) that feeds into the organization which itself does important work (so I would like to believe). Without the H1B brains powering this rocket, it ain't taking off. It will just crash and burn.

I am not a political partisan. I have trained myself very painfully over the years to objectively analyze data. (On a separate topic, I didn't used to be like this - I was very emotional and only argued things one way). I can see objectively there are certain painful things the administration must do to curtail the abuse of the system, and increase the economic opportunity for the American citizens. The kind of immigration abuses I have seen over the years have been nothing short of scandalous and embarrassing (if their true extent were to come out and completely understood by the American people).

But you know what? I have seen the bad apples in the system overwhelmingly outweighed by the good apples. By and large, people are honest, hardworking and smart. They will appreciate the opportunity, take that opportunity to better themselves, and when enough of them do it in large numbers, that creates the engine of innovation and economic prosperity - this is the pinnacle of the US tradition and the essence of America.

While there are horrible and ugly things about the Democrats (the latest Obama scandal non-withstanding - on a separate topic, I am sure all presidents have spied on their opponents - remains to be seen how much this controversy holds up), it seems like Republicans/Trump are simply incapable or even unwilling to understand what has worked for America. I cannot shake the feeling that there could be deep rooted bias and racism under the hood quite plainly. People will tolerate BLM protests, they will tolerate statues toppling, and they might even tolerate governors telling them to wear masks in public (the horror!!). But one thing that will scare the shit out of all - the prospects on hard right to gain and consolidate any kind of meaningful power. I know several openly Republican Desis and even they will shit their pants if they can even comprehend what this means to their lives.

No, the H1Bs are too entrenched, the numbers are too big, and the prospect of damage to the business at large and localities everywhere (in form of nosediving house prices and lost tax revenue) completely prohibit the Stephen Miller/NumbersUSA pipe dream from becoming a reality.

One can hope.

No the chance is not 0 percent.

This set of proposals are well thought out and have been in making for months if not years. They likely know what would stand the scrutiny or not. We may be surprised when the actual rules are proposed.

The longer the unemployment situation lasts, lesser the sympathy for H1Bs regardless of their numbers or entrenchment or support from big business. And of course it is planned as a slow attrition over years so as to allow the businesses to adjust.

[eaglenow]

"For others, it is certainly gray area, but as mentioned by the lawyer above, it can be challenged as the previous regulation stipulates that labor cert is valid for 180 days for filing 140 and expires after that IF 140 is not filed by that time. But there is no regulation that states that labor will expire after filing 140 within the 180 day window. This is due to how the statute is interpreted through current regulations. But one caveat is the “at the time of filing and admission” in statute. This is reason for 140 time window from labor. If they change this to 485 filing, it would get murky."

I disagree with you. This is not a grey area.

104(c) clearly states that three year extensions can be granted indefinitely until the “alien’s application for adjustment of status has been processed and a decision made thereon.” For the folks who have an approved I-140, a formal I-485 has not been filed because the priority date is not yet current due to the very same INA's 7% country cap for immigrant visas. Only when the PD gets current the alien will/can legally file for adjustment. Until the AOS is filed it can't be processed and decision cannot be made as a result until all of that happen (filing, processing and approval) h1b extensions should be granted. Also, USCIS as an agency for the past 2 decades set a precedence for that so to retroactively change it will be considered capricious and arbitrary clearly. Also, it will directly strike the heart of do no universal harm doctrine for drafting regulations by courts.

We are referring to 2 different things. My reference was to validity of labor certification and you seem to be referencing H1 extensions beyond 6 years based on AC 21.

If you look at the statute, the title is One time extension or something like that. The assumption being your GC will get approved within the next 3 years, which is no more the case. The regulation to interpret this basically considered the text and are providing 3 year extensions till 485 is approved. If new regulation is issued to reinterpret to one time extension beyond 6 years of h1b, it still may be fine due to section 106c, where you will get 1 year extensions instead.

But the crux of the issue is both the above are based on having valid 140 based on valid labor certification. So far the interpretation of labor certification validity has been filing 140 within 6 month window of labor certification. If that changes to say 5 years in total or something like that, the underlying labor will have to be refiled if 485 is not filed within the expiry window. Either way, making it retroactive would be difficult, if not impossible and will face lawsuits. Future changes on the other hand may or may not be won in courts, though will probably get challenged as it has been in place for 2 decades.

Regardless, I don’t think they will push everyone out in one go, at least not unless they want to tank the economy. You are taking about at least 350k families with high pay and skilled jobs. Businesses will shift jobs with them to wherever they are going, at least in the short term. And the IP of these people stay with them and so if many end up in India, all it would take is a small percentage of those to band together and start their own companies in India. Given the conversion parity, you can start some significant product companies in India. I think the Forbes article ending is very appropriate where they stated no foreign power who wanted to impact this great country adversely could have come up with a better plan.

Also contrary to the myth propagated by right wing, while there are abuses in the system, there is a dearth of skilled professionals. If you have tried to hire anyone With good skills, you will immediately see the striking low number of applicants and even among those who apply, getting the applicant with good skill is pretty difficult. Many times the hire is usually a compromise to your original vision. One person I know mentioned their company is reworking job requirements to make it more broad so that they can get more applicants.

Regardless with this admin anything goes and so they may not care about the impact. But that does not mean they can get away with everything. Fortunately there are still some checks and balances intact, the judicial system being one of them. Let’s see how these play out.

[Zenzone]

We are referring to 2 different things. My reference was to validity of labor certification and you seem to be referencing H1 extensions beyond 6 years based on AC 21.

If you look at the statute, the title is One time extension or something like that. The assumption being your GC will get approved within the next 3 years, which is no more the case. The regulation to interpret this basically considered the text and are providing 3 year extensions till 485 is approved. If new regulation is issued to reinterpret to one time extension beyond 6 years of h1b, it still may be fine due to section 106c, where you will get 1 year extensions instead.

But the crux of the issue is both the above are based on having valid 140 based on valid labor certification. So far the interpretation of labor certification validity has been filing 140 within 6 month window of labor certification. If that changes to say 5 years in total or something like that, the underlying labor will have to be refiled if 485 is not filed within the expiry window. Either way, making it retroactive would be difficult, if not impossible and will face lawsuits. Future changes on the other hand may or may not be won in courts, though will probably get challenged as it has been in place for 2 decades.

Regardless, I don’t think they will push everyone out in one go, at least not unless they want to tank the economy. You are taking about at least 350k families with high pay and skilled jobs. Businesses will shift jobs with them to wherever they are going, at least in the short term. And the IP of these people stay with them and so if many end up in India, all it would take is a small percentage of those to band together and start their own companies in India. Given the conversion parity, you can start some significant product companies in India. I think the Forbes article ending is very appropriate where they stated no foreign power who wanted to impact this great country adversely could have come up with a better plan.

Also contrary to the myth propagated by right wing, while there are abuses in the system, there is a dearth of skilled professionals. If you have tried to hire anyone With good skills, you will immediately see the striking low number of applicants and even among those who apply, getting the applicant with good skill is pretty difficult. Many times the hire is usually a compromise to your original vision. One person I know mentioned their company is reworking job requirements to make it more broad so that they can get more applicants.

Regardless with this admin anything goes and so they may not care about the impact. But that does not mean they can get away with everything. Fortunately there are still some checks and balances intact, the judicial system being one of them. Let’s see how these play out.

I was using the 104 and 106 sections to analyze post 6 year extensions in general. It’s obvious that underlying PERM needs to be not revoked if any of the extensions were to continue happen. Also the title of one time extension is extensively analyzed and the legal research paper I shared above Captures that argument extensively. None of this has any chance of happening let alone happening within the next 120 days. The last time I checked there is a presidential election due happening and the incumbent is deeply trailing. So much for media hype and negativity these things are largely moot.

Here is the link again - http://blog.cyrusmehta.com/2018/01/no-win-immigration-policy-denying-h-1b-extensions-to-skilled-workers-from-india-so-that-they-self-deport.html

Also nowhere in INA it says a PERM needs to be re-validated periodically. PERIOD!

[Zenzone]

No the chance is not 0 percent.

This set of proposals are well thought out and have been in making for months if not years. They likely know what would stand the scrutiny or not. We may be surprised when the actual rules are proposed.

The longer the unemployment situation lasts, lesser the sympathy for H1Bs regardless of their numbers or entrenchment or support from big business. And of course it is planned as a slow attrition over years so as to allow the businesses to adjust.

Haha oh yes! Well thought through. Look how quickly they were able to revoke h4 ead and DACA. LMAO! I understand the anxiety of H1Bs but to assume INA can be thrown into trash just like that is irrational and that's what fires me up (keeping emotions strictly aside). I'm saying this as a person who was here in H1B in 2008 recession. Not sure how many of this forum members were around in that status ;). I know I'm dating myself here.

[excalibur123]

Haha oh yes! Well thought through. Look how quickly they were able to revoke h4 ead and DACA. LMAO! I understand the anxiety of H1Bs but to assume INA can be thrown into trash just like that is irrational and that's what fires me up (keeping emotions strictly aside). I'm saying this as a person who was here in H1B in 2008 recession. Not sure how many of this forum members were around in that status ;). I know I'm dating myself here.

They had many successes too - on southern border, and with high h1 rejection rates and processing delays, and also with current ban for CP cases. You can laugh all you want but it is about not underestimating these things. The interpretation of law is malleable IF high unemployment continues.

[Zenzone]

They had many successes too - on southern border, and with high h1 rejection rates and processing delays, and also with current ban for CP cases. You can laugh all you want but it is about not underestimating these things. The interpretation of law is malleable IF high unemployment continues.

Nah. If I underestimated any of these I won't be typing about them and reading about the possibilities (that too on a Saturday afternoon, that's simply not me!). I'm just saying the odds of rule-making and implementing before Nov 3rd is pretty impossible. Also, I'm only talking about the larger regulatory action related wish list that the proclamation captures. Never in my mind, I will underestimate how much this admin. will try even if it knows it will fail in the court for example. I still don't see these regulatory possibilities as immediate/imminent threats unlike the "immigrant entry" related latitude the executive branch has that can be done just by a proclamation.

[excalibur123]

Nah. If I underestimated any of these I won't be typing about them and reading about the possibilities. I'm just saying the odds of rule-making and implementing before Nov 3rd is pretty impossible. Also, I'm only talking about the larger regulatory action related wish list that the proclamation captures. Never in my mind, I will underestimate how much this admin. will try even if it knows it will fail in the court for example. I still don't see these regulatory possibilities as immediate/imminent threats unlike the "immigrant entry" related latitude the executive branch has that can be done just by a proclamation. Also, if you want to refute me here, please provide examples of rule-making successes they have had and not just citing H1B RFEs/rejection rates and banning CP GC seeking entry which is not an apples to apples comparison. Also, please keep the wall out of this discussion my friend ;).

The deadline is not Nov 3rd. The rules can be finalized and published till the transition is completed - as it happened during last admin. Besides the election results are not a foregone conclusion unless you are from future :).
As for regulatory changes the past cannot be a guide for future because we are in midst of biggest unemployment crisis. Previously the economy was doing diametrically opposite to what it is now, so there was no huge incentive to shake the status-quo - but now the incentive is as high as it can get. The admin has gotten better with rule making - the public charge rule is still in place. So you can’t compare their efforts from 2 years back to now. I see the possibility of something strong coming from them - you may agree or not.

[excalibur123]

Again you don't read fully before you post. I said Nov 3rd as an incentive for the admin to pander to the base and nothing else. There are multiple lawsuits to be filed to fight this ban as such so let's wait and watch. Also, you seem to talk as though you have a crystal ball too with so much levels of certainty. Jokes aside, this economy has been showing signs of V shaped recovery and May job numbers are an example of a stronger rebound so we will be again in a diametrically opposite situation probably sooner.

Rule-making typically don't happen during the lame-duck months after November elections. Btw, let me re-phrase your predictions (or rather wishes) here -

Rules are all proposed, published, commented, finalized and implemented between now and December and there are no lawsuits, no business lobby at work and all courts side with the admin. and people are deported! All of this happens between now and December is what you are implying here and you want everyone to agree with you without questioning. That to me is nothing but fear mongering. Its pretty much a useless point of view from someone who just got greened and wants the door to be shut for everyone else.

I am not greened yet - not sure how you got the idea - and yes I was there in 2008 too. You are so worked up on these issues and reading too many things in every line I write. I was putting a point of view that chances of anything happening is not 0 percent as there is strong incentive and the other side also knows the legal possibilities. You can assume the rest if you want.

[Zenzone]

I am not greened yet - not sure how you got the idea - and yes I was there in 2008 too. You are so worked up on these issues and reading too many things in every line I write. I was putting a point of view that chances of anything happening is not 0 percent as there is strong incentive and the other side also knows the legal possibilities. You can assume the rest if you want.

Peace my friend.

[qesehmk]

None of us have a crystal ball. But if past is any precedent for future, all you have to do is look at the far right agenda on immigration and how much they have achieved so far.

So for that reason alone - if they say something - trust that they are working to do that. Nov 3rd etc doesn't matter. The agenda is agenda whether trump is in office or not.

[Zenzone]

Just because things are in far right agenda it doesn’t mean all of those will happen either. For example, dunno if you are aware, they have retroactive revocation of certain naturalized citizenship, birth right citizenships and barring certain green card holders from entry as well as drastically reducing GC numbers in their agenda for quite a while. The question and discussion is around how imminent the threat is instead of fretting over every possibility out there! I use Nov 3rd as a barometer because I think a lot of this election centric posturing and the far right is having a field day as a result. So it makes it prudent to see how far and likely they can/will go. Who knows just for posturing the very same administration could say tomorrow they are now reviewing birth right citizenships and all GCs and naturalizations issued in the past decade will be audited to energize their base even further. After all anything is possible, right? If we cast that wide of a net then none can be safe. And that’s my point about Difference between general gloom and doom Vs. looking for imminent threats so that we can be atleast mentally prepared!

I will also bet my life that a Biden administration will not give any legitimacy to any of these far right agenda. That’s a whole another topic of discussion that I will stay clear from assuming we all will know in about 100 days from now!

[jimmys]

I was using the 104 and 106 sections to analyze post 6 year extensions in general. It’s obvious that underlying PERM needs to be not revoked if any of the extensions were to continue happen. Also the title of one time extension is extensively analyzed and the legal research paper I shared above Captures that argument extensively. None of this has any chance of happening let alone happening within the next 120 days. The last time I checked there is a presidential election due happening and the incumbent is deeply trailing. So much for media hype and negativity these things are largely moot.

Here is the link again - http://blog.cyrusmehta.com/2018/01/no-win-immigration-policy-denying-h-1b-extensions-to-skilled-workers-from-india-so-that-they-self-deport.html

Also nowhere in INA it says a PERM needs to be re-validated periodically. PERIOD!


President may be trailing now. Remember, he was trailing the same amount against Clinton too in June 2016. Until first President vs Biden debate, I won't give any weight to anything that's on media. I'm really worried Biden's going to surrender haplessly should the presidential debate happen.

[Zenzone]

President may be trailing now. Remember, he was trailing the same amount against Clinton too in June 2016. Until first President vs Biden debate, I won't give any weight to anything that's on media. I'm really worried Biden's going to surrender haplessly should the presidential debate happen.

That’s a whole another topic that would bring out the statistician in me. I feel I have already over contributed to this group so I’m going to refrain going into politics here.

[1312011_eb2I]

If USCIS is going to furlough it’s employees due to budget issue they should move the priority dates and collect the money from I-485/EAD filings. What is stopping them?They should not waste 25K visas due to understaffing.

[1312011_eb2I]

If USCIS is going to furlough it’s employees due to budget issue they should move the priority dates and collect the money from I-485/EAD filings. What is stopping them?
I am sure some people (GC aspirants )will be ready to pay USCIS upfront $20-30K ( as a premium processing fee, if implemented) not to go furlough,
This is pump up their budget with ~$600M. They should not waste 25K visas due to understaffing.

[rocketfast]

If USCIS is going to furlough it’s employees due to budget issue they should move the priority dates and collect the money from I-485/EAD filings. What is stopping them?
I am sure some people (GC aspirants )will be ready to pay USCIS upfront $20-30K ( as a premium processing fee, if implemented) not to go furlough,
This is pump up their budget with ~$600M. They should not waste 25K visas due to understaffing.

Furloughed employees get unemployment benefits. Trump admin wants funding to USCIS on their rules - i.e no changes in policies, but extra money. They want USCIS to become inefficient as that means less immigrants. They want furloughs.

[rabp77]

Furloughed employees get unemployment benefits. Trump admin wants funding to USCIS on their rules - i.e no changes in policies, but extra money. They want USCIS to become inefficient as that means less immigrants. They want furloughs.

Republicans in Congress will probably not want to fund USCIS, as they see no reason for the service it offers. Democrats will not want to fund it, as no family based processing is happening ( which the EO has stopped.) . It would be surpriing if Congress agrees to fund it. Only option that may avoid this an immediate fee increase, or an advancement of filling dates for eb. Likely heading towards furlough.

[jackus]

read this
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/06/26/uscis-furlough-notices-employees-emergency-funding/

[idliman]

read this
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/06/26/uscis-furlough-notices-employees-emergency-funding/
The interesting line in the article is

Edlow said lawmakers have responded positively, and he is hopeful that if Congress takes up a pandemic aid bill next month, it will include the emergency funds.


Like others have mentioned, the $1.2B will be negotiated with the second Covid package. The house version of HEROS will stop spillover from FB to EB, which will affect many backlogged folks. Republicans did not commit to that bill and may work on their own version. I am not sure how they will pass one before furloughs hit the employees.
USCIS / DHS can keep extending the furlough date, by starting to accept a ton of new applications. The agency is run by Cissna, who is from the DT camp. Will the career staff do something to increase income or will the admin wing from DT camp prevail? If people are losing their income, I would think that they will do something to increase income. 10% increase in fees is not going to be enough to avoid furlough.

[EB32010]

The interesting line in the article is


Like others have mentioned, the $1.2B will be negotiated with the second Covid package. The house version of HEROS will stop spillover from FB to EB, which will affect many backlogged folks. Republicans did not commit to that bill and may work on their own version. I am not sure how they will pass one before furloughs hit the employees.
USCIS / DHS can keep extending the furlough date, by starting to accept a ton of new applications. The agency is run by Cissna, who is from the DT camp. Will the career staff do something to increase income or will the admin wing from DT camp prevail? If people are losing their income, I would think that they will do something to increase income. 10% increase in fees is not going to be enough to avoid furlough.

Cissna is long gone from USCIS.

[sportsfan33]

No the chance is not 0 percent.

This set of proposals are well thought out and have been in making for months if not years. They likely know what would stand the scrutiny or not. We may be surprised when the actual rules are proposed.

The longer the unemployment situation lasts, lesser the sympathy for H1Bs regardless of their numbers or entrenchment or support from big business. And of course it is planned as a slow attrition over years so as to allow the businesses to adjust.

For slow attrition over the years to have happened, Trump and his ideological successors have to sit in the WH for over a decade. I don't see that happening. I haven't been following up with the current new H1B ban; I am surprised why there hasn't been an injunction from any federal court yet.

I started writing a whole big paragraph but it seemed unnecessary. I can only say - being on the ground and in the trenches, I can say with certainty that if the market was depleted from the H1B talent, we cannot do business. Period. My team is not the only team and our organization is not the only organization. For better or for worse, the business in the US now expects a certain level of excellence. The US has amassed unbelievable talent from all over the world that now penetrates across all organizations. You can't suddenly lower the bar - your top performers will leave en masse.

Not to say the repercussion and shock effect it will have on housing in major metros, that will cause recession. I believe the numbers are that big now.

On a side note, I have a different take. All along, we have heard stories of how H1B workers are like slaves and underpaid and are used by corporations for wage arbitrage. It is possible that it's true in some cases. However, I did spend the last three years in three different organizations in managerial/directorial capacity and I have possibly hired ~15 people. I have had some epiphanies during this time. Of course my experiences have been limited, but whatever.

"H1B workers are paid a King's ransom in the right roles". Not a hyperbole. My current H1B reportees are paid 50% to 100% more than my 100% white American reportees in the prior startup I worked. H1Bs also tend to be more dynamic, willing to work on their skills more, and are probably more prone to flight! I have to work extra hard (I enjoy it) to keep them stimulated. H1Bs are also more aware of the market, the right technologies to master, and in fact can take more risks.

What's the point of all this? Well, I am consistently noticing the trend that being on the H1B may be a silent boon so to speak. What you think is the biggest obstacle in life could very well be your biggest strength. H1Bs are climbing the economic ladder fast and I have lost count how many of them have bought million dollar houses in our neighborhood. They are rapidly getting in that "haves" category. I worry that the American public at large might become anti-H1B for this very reason. Some would say that's an anti-American spirit historically, but these days, it's hard to pass what is American and what's not. In that sense, H1B is a vulnerable group.

[qesehmk]

"H1B workers are paid a King's ransom in the right roles". Not a hyperbole. My current H1B reportees are paid 50% to 100% more than my 100% white American reportees in the prior startup I worked.

That is quite a statement. You might be comparing Apples to oranges. E.g. an H1B may be working on latest stuff while your American reportee might be working on routine 9x5 stuff. I don't know your situation. I have managed over $1 billion in IT budgets and so know it first hand how money works. Absolutely zero chance that ANY company will spend even 10% more on an H1B when it comes to base because they are already spending on lawyers.

Wonder if you are really comparing apples to apples. And if so -why are you paying that premium?

[Pundit Arjun]

Instead of asking Congress for Money to run the self-funded [via our fee] organization, suggest them to start a "Go Fund Me" campaign and ask the general public [Everyone including Citizens, Pending and Future applicants].
They will then not need to Furlough their employees.
If they can mention that they will stay true to constitution, and the law and will act in an unbiased manner in the campaign post, then I am sure everyone will be happy to contribute. Its a Win-Win for everyone.
For sure, I will be happy to open my purse wide.


read this
https://www.rollcall.com/2020/06/26/uscis-furlough-notices-employees-emergency-funding/

[sportsfan33]

That is quite a statement. You might be comparing Apples to oranges. E.g. an H1B may be working on latest stuff while your American reportee might be working on routine 9x5 stuff. I don't know your situation. I have managed over $1 billion in IT budgets and so know it first hand how money works. Absolutely zero chance that ANY company will spend even 10% more on an H1B when it comes to base because they are already spending on lawyers.

Wonder if you are really comparing apples to apples. And if so -why are you paying that premium?

The premium is paid for the role and the skills in latest technologies. Think AWS everything, Redshift, Dynamo, EMR, containers, all the latest trends in software engineering. We are a little more forgiving and will hire based on potential and not current knowledge.

It actually so happened that I tried to pry away some of my prior reportees/friends to my current organization after several positions opened up. Naturally, they would have been my first targets having worked with them. Not one person moved. Not generalizing any trends here; maybe they have different priorities, but for a 50%+ hike, I would have jumped without blinking (and we are a more stable organization than where most of them work too). Learning the latest cutting edge stuff is great too as it opens up future prospects.

In fact I worked in another in-demand domain before and I know a few folks on H1B working across the startup scene here. Yup, they are all paid King's ransom (I have moved around a lot, have a large network and interview and also take interviews a huge number of times, so I generally know insider salary info of a wide range of people).

Thinking more about this, for an average position, we interview over 10 candidates and a majority of them are quite pedestrian, H1Bs included. So I am certainly not saying H1Bs are unicorns or bring a silver bullet solution to all your problems. However consistently, when hiring the cream of the crop from the field, a significant chunk/or even a majority are H1B folks. My point is that if these people didn't exist in the market as it is structured today, things would turn ugly very quickly as it will be impossible for us to fill a majority of our positions organization wide.

Obviously, the US should invest in their schooling system, and encourage more Americans in jobs requiring critical thinking. Having said that, although I don't want to stereotype, the combination of a native-born American vendor and an Indian/Chinese/East European immigrant worker has been repeated so many times in my direct experience that it's stopped being a cliche. I read once upon a time, native-born American women used to be in programming - I read they were quite instrumental in success of NASA's Apollo missions. That peaked around early 80s and since then, the native-born American women participation in CS just plummeted. Perhaps they don't have role models, are being fed poor normative cues...who knows? This tired cliche holds up very well in my own workplace; all women I have worked with directly in my last 15 years have been immigrants.

It's a complicated situation and there are no easy answers. Perhaps our own kids - when they grow up - will reverse the trend. US is a dynamic place - that's what is so great about this country. However, at this point, the corporate dependence on H1B is absolute - I will be very surprised if there are even minor meaningful changes in the status quo.

[Zenzone]

The premium is paid for the role and the skills in latest technologies. Think AWS everything, Redshift, Dynamo, EMR, containers, all the latest trends in software engineering. We are a little more forgiving and will hire based on potential and not current knowledge.

It actually so happened that I tried to pry away some of my prior reportees/friends to my current organization after several positions opened up. Naturally, they would have been my first targets having worked with them. Not one person moved. Not generalizing any trends here; maybe they have different priorities, but for a 50%+ hike, I would have jumped without blinking (and we are a more stable organization than where most of them work too). Learning the latest cutting edge stuff is great too as it opens up future prospects.

In fact I worked in another in-demand domain before and I know a few folks on H1B working across the startup scene here. Yup, they are all paid King's ransom (I have moved around a lot, have a large network and interview and also take interviews a huge number of times, so I generally know insider salary info of a wide range of people).

Thinking more about this, for an average position, we interview over 10 candidates and a majority of them are quite pedestrian, H1Bs included. So I am certainly not saying H1Bs are unicorns or bring a silver bullet solution to all your problems. However consistently, when hiring the cream of the crop from the field, a significant chunk/or even a majority are H1B folks. My point is that if these people didn't exist in the market as it is structured today, things would turn ugly very quickly as it will be impossible for us to fill a majority of our positions organization wide.

Obviously, the US should invest in their schooling system, and encourage more Americans in jobs requiring critical thinking. Having said that, although I don't want to stereotype, the combination of a native-born American vendor and an Indian/Chinese/East European immigrant worker has been repeated so many times in my direct experience that it's stopped being a cliche. I read once upon a time, native-born American women used to be in programming - I read they were quite instrumental in success of NASA's Apollo missions. That peaked around early 80s and since then, the native-born American women participation in CS just plummeted. Perhaps they don't have role models, are being fed poor normative cues...who knows? This tired cliche holds up very well in my own workplace; all women I have worked with directly in my last 15 years have been immigrants.

It's a complicated situation and there are no easy answers. Perhaps our own kids - when they grow up - will reverse the trend. US is a dynamic place - that's what is so great about this country. However, at this point, the corporate dependence on H1B is absolute - I will be very surprised if there are even minor meaningful changes in the status quo.

Agree with you for the most part. I think ppl. like you and me are on the brighter side of this skilled visa program. Let's face it, visa abuse and undercutting wages is also real and people have in fact made a business model out of it too. Those areas are ripe for reforms. But the election year rhetoric while a raging pandemic is in full swing doesn't bother to differentiate between both and instead things get painted with a broad brush to appeal to the base. Once the rhetoric settles and election passes, it will probably be back to trying changes through regulatory rule making of sorts instead of one size fits all approach, IMO (even if DT is re-elected).

[qesehmk]

Well written sport. So what this boils down to is that H1Bs are more likely to accept roles that need risk taking, learning, and adapting. Which is in a very different league than most normal jobs. Also H1Bs working in sillicon valley (particularly in Engineering jobs) or H1Bs in executive positions also will be paid quite generously.

However other than these places, H1Bs are generally underpaid. I will not be surprised to hear about underpaid people even from silicon valley. The reason is very simple. If you have a weakness, it will be exploited. That's how the world operates. You know who don't operate that way with their employees ? The absolutely world class companies in each of the industry sector. They value good people and nurture talent.

I do fully agree with your conclusion that H1B is here to stay. H1Bs are indeed highly skilled and do bring unbelievable value to American workforce. Regardless of what Miller and crowd believes, H1Bs indeed often work in areas where it is incredibly difficult to find Americans.

The premium is paid for the role and the skills in latest technologies. Think AWS everything, Redshift, Dynamo, EMR, containers, all the latest trends in software engineering. We are a little more forgiving and will hire based on potential and not current knowledge.

It actually so happened that I tried to pry away some of my prior reportees/friends to my current organization after several positions opened up. Naturally, they would have been my first targets having worked with them. Not one person moved. Not generalizing any trends here; maybe they have different priorities, but for a 50%+ hike, I would have jumped without blinking (and we are a more stable organization than where most of them work too). Learning the latest cutting edge stuff is great too as it opens up future prospects.

In fact I worked in another in-demand domain before and I know a few folks on H1B working across the startup scene here. Yup, they are all paid King's ransom (I have moved around a lot, have a large network and interview and also take interviews a huge number of times, so I generally know insider salary info of a wide range of people).

Thinking more about this, for an average position, we interview over 10 candidates and a majority of them are quite pedestrian, H1Bs included. So I am certainly not saying H1Bs are unicorns or bring a silver bullet solution to all your problems. However consistently, when hiring the cream of the crop from the field, a significant chunk/or even a majority are H1B folks. My point is that if these people didn't exist in the market as it is structured today, things would turn ugly very quickly as it will be impossible for us to fill a majority of our positions organization wide.

Obviously, the US should invest in their schooling system, and encourage more Americans in jobs requiring critical thinking. Having said that, although I don't want to stereotype, the combination of a native-born American vendor and an Indian/Chinese/East European immigrant worker has been repeated so many times in my direct experience that it's stopped being a cliche. I read once upon a time, native-born American women used to be in programming - I read they were quite instrumental in success of NASA's Apollo missions. That peaked around early 80s and since then, the native-born American women participation in CS just plummeted. Perhaps they don't have role models, are being fed poor normative cues...who knows? This tired cliche holds up very well in my own workplace; all women I have worked with directly in my last 15 years have been immigrants.

It's a complicated situation and there are no easy answers. Perhaps our own kids - when they grow up - will reverse the trend. US is a dynamic place - that's what is so great about this country. However, at this point, the corporate dependence on H1B is absolute - I will be very surprised if there are even minor meaningful changes in the status quo.

[Pundit Arjun]

Well written sport. So what this boils down to is that H1Bs are more likely to accept roles that need risk taking, learning, and adapting. Which is in a very different league than most normal jobs. Also H1Bs working in sillicon valley (particularly in Engineering jobs) or H1Bs in executive positions also will be paid quite generously.

However other than these places, H1Bs are generally underpaid. I will not be surprised to hear about underpaid people even from silicon valley. The reason is very simple. If you have a weakness, it will be exploited. That's how the world operates. You know who don't operate that way with their employees ? The absolutely world class companies in each of the industry sector. They value good people and nurture talent.

I do fully agree with your conclusion that H1B is here to stay. H1Bs are indeed highly skilled and do bring unbelievable value to American workforce. Regardless of what Miller and crowd believes, H1Bs indeed often work in areas where it is incredibly difficult to find Americans.

Agree Q - Have noticed most consulting companies [TCS, Infy,...] to underpay H1's. I have also noticed smaller consulting companies in US take advantage of candidates and pay them less. From my experience being on the board of a small company - I pay H1s and non-H1s same. My teams do not consider the attorney fee at all and reduce their pay. We accept it as a premium for a good candidate. Again being a small company and not being in silicon valley, I do not have many applicants applying on a daily basis but when they do and pass the coding tests[90% or higher] and other recruitment criteria, My teams do all they can to have them onboard.

[eaglenow]

I think the consulting companies are the primarily guilty of underpaying their employees compared to their value output. If they create a separate visa for consulting companies and keep H1 for regular full time positions, it will help clear out this issue.

Other than consulting companies, most companies are fair as they are looking to fill a need. I have analyzed the h1 as well as perm data and the average pay even considering the consulting companies is pretty high compared to what a native born middle class person earns.

I think what would be helpful is to implement the 50-50 rule where a company cannot have more than 50% of their employees on visas and removal of per country limits. Even better would be a work permit that is generic once approved and not tied to employer if the new job is in same or similar occupation.

Paying prevailing wage, free job portability, removal of country caps and 50-50 rule will help level the playing field and take care of the underpay scenario pretty quickly.

[jackus]

The interesting line in the article is


Like others have mentioned, the $1.2B will be negotiated with the second Covid package. The house version of HEROS will stop spillover from FB to EB, which will affect many backlogged folks. Republicans did not commit to that bill and may work on their own version. I am not sure how they will pass one before furloughs hit the employees.
USCIS / DHS can keep extending the furlough date, by starting to accept a ton of new applications. The agency is run by Cissna, who is from the DT camp. Will the career staff do something to increase income or will the admin wing from DT camp prevail? If people are losing their income, I would think that they will do something to increase income. 10% increase in fees is not going to be enough to avoid furlough.


HEROES ACT
https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hr6800/BILLS-116hr6800eh.pdf

IN PAGE 1755 mention about unsued visa will be rollover into next fiscal year. It mean that will spillover right?

[gs1968]

HEROES ACT
https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hr6800/BILLS-116hr6800eh.pdf

IN PAGE 1755 mention about unused visa will be rollover into next fiscal year. It mean that will spillover right?

The way I interpreted it is that any difference between the annual worldwide ceiling of FB,EB and DV green cards and the actual number issued will be added to FY 2021 and 2022. I think it will be added to the respective categories.It should be remembered that these numbers are a ceiling and not targets. The fall across from FB to EB will be eliminated to make sure the visa numbers are not counted twice. I think Spectator has addressed this before

[rabp77]

HEROES ACT
https://www.congress.gov/116/bills/hr6800/BILLS-116hr6800eh.pdf

IN PAGE 1755 mention about unsued visa will be rollover into next fiscal year. It mean that will spillover right?

it means no FB-> EB spill over for the next two years. Unused visas will be spill over back into FB for FB, and EB for eB for the next 2 years. its still just a proposal (not law), so things can change.

[1312011_eb2I]

This statement from CO is patently false. There is tens of thousands of people from EB-India who are simply waiting for a visa. No processing is needed. All they have to do is simply allocate the visa.

Thanks,
But how to fix this? Need your experience and expertise.

[qesehmk]

Thanks,
But how to fix this? Need your experience and expertise.
Here is what you do:

1) March in person to DOS / USCIS / Congress (homeland security related committee) and submit a written request to the heads asking full utilization of visas as well as moving the dates well ahead to ensure visas will be utilized.
2) Do this in batches for 3 months straight. 100 people per week. 12 weeks of repeatedly hammer the message home.

This will do the trick in my opinion. Do it for your own sake.