Educational Requirement Analysis of FY2017 Q2 Disclosure Data

[Spectator]

Analysis of Q2 FY2017 Disclosure Data by Educational Requirement

Please view with some caution. It's a a fairly quick analysis. There's also a degree of "art" in reviewing the Bachelors and Other data.


EB2 -------------- CHINA --- INDIA --- MEXICO --- PHILIPPINES ----- ROW -- Grand Total
Doctorate ---------- 263 ----- 143 ------- 16 ------------- 8 ----- 851 -------- 1,281
Masters ---------- 2,423 -- 13,065 ------ 140 ------------ 87 --- 3,422 ------- 19,137
Batchelors + 5 ----- 163 --- 4,841 ------ 103 ------------ 85 ----- 868 -------- 6,060
Other --------------- 29 ----- 423 ------- 10 ------------ 43 ----- 749 -------- 1,254

EB2 Total -------- 2,878 -- 18,472 ------ 269 ----------- 223 --- 5,890 ------- 27,732
------------------ 69.8% --- 75.2% ---- 26.6% --------- 33.5% --- 41.0% -------- 62.0%

EB3 -------------- CHINA --- INDIA --- MEXICO --- PHILIPPINES ----- ROW -- Grand Total
Batchelors --------- 807 --- 5,759 ------ 407 ----------- 236 --- 4,150 ------- 11,359
Associate ------------ 3 ------ 57 -------- 4 ------------- 4 ----- 198 ---------- 266
High School --------- 12 ------ 10 ------- 19 ------------ 68 ----- 685 ---------- 794
None --------------- 424 ----- 114 ------ 310 ----------- 134 --- 3,368 -------- 4,350
Other ---------------- 2 ----- 161 -------- 2 ------------- 1 ------ 60 ---------- 226

EB3 Total -------- 1,248 --- 6,101 ------ 742 ----------- 443 --- 8,461 ------- 16,995
------------------ 30.2% --- 24.8% ---- 73.4% --------- 66.5% --- 59.0% -------- 38.0%

Grand Total ------ 4,126 -- 24,573 ---- 1,011 ----------- 666 -- 14,351 ------- 44,727


Just %:

---------------- EB2 ----- EB3
CHINA --------- 69.8% --- 30.2%
INDIA --------- 75.2% --- 24.8%
MEXICO -------- 26.6% --- 73.4%
PHILIPPINES --- 33.5% --- 66.5%
ROW ----------- 41.0% --- 59.0%

Grand Total --- 62.0% --- 38.0%


Trend

---------------- China ---------- India ----------- Mexico ------- Philippines --------- ROW ------------- All
------------ EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3
Q3 2015 --- 73.4% -- 26.6% -- 74.4% -- 25.6% -- 38.9% -- 61.1% -- 46.4% -- 53.6% -- 62.5% -- 37.5% -- 69.8% -- 30.2%
Q4 2015 --- 70.1% -- 29.9% -- 74.7% -- 25.3% -- 38.2% -- 61.8% -- 40.7% -- 59.3% -- 58.0% -- 42.0% -- 68.0% -- 32.0%
Q1 2016 --- 67.7% -- 32.3% -- 72.8% -- 27.2% -- 28.2% -- 71.8% -- 33.0% -- 67.0% -- 49.8% -- 50.2% -- 63.3% -- 36.7%
Q2 2016 --- 68.1% -- 31.9% -- 73.9% -- 26.1% -- 30.9% -- 69.1% -- 30.1% -- 69.9% -- 48.2% -- 51.8% -- 63.5% -- 36.5%
Q3 2016 --- 70.8% -- 29.2% -- 75.2% -- 24.8% -- 33.6% -- 66.4% -- 33.3% -- 66.7% -- 48.7% -- 51.3% -- 65.0% -- 35.0%
Q4 2016 --- 71.2% -- 28.8% -- 75.5% -- 24.5% -- 32.9% -- 67.1% -- 34.2% -- 65.8% -- 47.3% -- 52.7% -- 64.8% -- 35.2%
Q1 2017 --- 71.1% -- 28.9% -- 74.8% -- 25.2% -- 28.5% -- 71.5% -- 33.4% -- 66.6% -- 41.2% -- 58.8% -- 61.7% -- 38.3%
Q2 2017 --- 69.8% -- 30.2% -- 75.2% -- 24.8% -- 26.6% -- 73.4% -- 33.5% -- 66.5% -- 41.0% -- 59.0% -- 62.0% -- 38.0%


The above represents only PERM cases. Additional to that are cases that do not require a PERM, such as NIW and Schedule A.

[suninphx]

Analysis of Q2 FY2017 Disclosure Data by Educational Requirement

Please view with some caution. It's a a fairly quick analysis. There's also a degree of "art" in reviewing the Bachelors and Other data.


EB2 -------------- CHINA --- INDIA --- MEXICO --- PHILIPPINES ----- ROW -- Grand Total
Doctorate ---------- 263 ----- 143 ------- 16 ------------- 8 ----- 851 -------- 1,281
Masters ---------- 2,423 -- 13,065 ------ 140 ------------ 87 --- 3,422 ------- 19,137
Batchelors + 5 ----- 163 --- 4,841 ------ 103 ------------ 85 ----- 868 -------- 6,060
Other --------------- 29 ----- 423 ------- 10 ------------ 43 ----- 749 -------- 1,254

EB2 Total -------- 2,878 -- 18,472 ------ 269 ----------- 223 --- 5,890 ------- 27,732
------------------ 69.8% --- 75.2% ---- 26.6% --------- 33.5% --- 41.0% -------- 62.0%

EB3 -------------- CHINA --- INDIA --- MEXICO --- PHILIPPINES ----- ROW -- Grand Total
Batchelors --------- 807 --- 5,759 ------ 407 ----------- 236 --- 4,150 ------- 11,359
Associate ------------ 3 ------ 57 -------- 4 ------------- 4 ----- 198 ---------- 266
High School --------- 12 ------ 10 ------- 19 ------------ 68 ----- 685 ---------- 794
None --------------- 424 ----- 114 ------ 310 ----------- 134 --- 3,368 -------- 4,350
Other ---------------- 2 ----- 161 -------- 2 ------------- 1 ------ 60 ---------- 226

EB3 Total -------- 1,248 --- 6,101 ------ 742 ----------- 443 --- 8,461 ------- 16,995
------------------ 30.2% --- 24.8% ---- 73.4% --------- 66.5% --- 59.0% -------- 38.0%

Grand Total ------ 4,126 -- 24,573 ---- 1,011 ----------- 666 -- 14,351 ------- 44,727


Just %:

---------------- EB2 ----- EB3
CHINA --------- 69.8% --- 30.2%
INDIA --------- 75.2% --- 24.8%
MEXICO -------- 26.6% --- 73.4%
PHILIPPINES --- 33.5% --- 66.5%
ROW ----------- 41.0% --- 59.0%

Grand Total --- 62.0% --- 38.0%


Trend

---------------- China ---------- India ----------- Mexico ------- Philippines --------- ROW ------------- All
------------ EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EB2 ---- EB3
Q3 2015 --- 73.4% -- 26.6% -- 74.4% -- 25.6% -- 38.9% -- 61.1% -- 46.4% -- 53.6% -- 62.5% -- 37.5% -- 69.8% -- 30.2%
Q4 2015 --- 70.1% -- 29.9% -- 74.7% -- 25.3% -- 38.2% -- 61.8% -- 40.7% -- 59.3% -- 58.0% -- 42.0% -- 68.0% -- 32.0%
Q1 2016 --- 67.7% -- 32.3% -- 72.8% -- 27.2% -- 28.2% -- 71.8% -- 33.0% -- 67.0% -- 49.8% -- 50.2% -- 63.3% -- 36.7%
Q2 2016 --- 68.1% -- 31.9% -- 73.9% -- 26.1% -- 30.9% -- 69.1% -- 30.1% -- 69.9% -- 48.2% -- 51.8% -- 63.5% -- 36.5%
Q3 2016 --- 70.8% -- 29.2% -- 75.2% -- 24.8% -- 33.6% -- 66.4% -- 33.3% -- 66.7% -- 48.7% -- 51.3% -- 65.0% -- 35.0%
Q4 2016 --- 71.2% -- 28.8% -- 75.5% -- 24.5% -- 32.9% -- 67.1% -- 34.2% -- 65.8% -- 47.3% -- 52.7% -- 64.8% -- 35.2%
Q1 2017 --- 71.1% -- 28.9% -- 74.8% -- 25.2% -- 28.5% -- 71.5% -- 33.4% -- 66.6% -- 41.2% -- 58.8% -- 61.7% -- 38.3%
Q2 2017 --- 69.8% -- 30.2% -- 75.2% -- 24.8% -- 26.6% -- 73.4% -- 33.5% -- 66.5% -- 41.0% -- 59.0% -- 62.0% -- 38.0%


The above represents only PERM cases. Additional to that are cases that do not require a PERM, such as NIW and Schedule A.

Thank Spec! Very useful numbers.

[anuprab]

the trend for the ROW seems to be more inclined towards EB3 versus the trend in China and India. This is concerning especially if EB3I is banking on SO from RoW. Thanks for the beautiful analysis Spec, you think RoW trend will impact EB3I negatively?

[Spectator]

the trend for the ROW seems to be more inclined towards EB3 versus the trend in China and India. This is concerning especially if EB3I is banking on SO from RoW. Thanks for the beautiful analysis Spec, you think RoW trend will impact EB3I negatively?anuprab,

Thanks for your kind comment. I would reiterate my health warning about the analysis.

Regarding your question, I really am not sure.

The Trackitt data doesn't suggest any great increase in approvals for EB3-ROW. It also suggests that USCIS have only reached a PD of about mid 2016 for approvals.

What Trackitt data generally doesn't reflect is CP approvals. With an almost Current COD, CP becomes much more attractive.

I have sensed that a cottage industry of brokers has appeared pushing EB3 to low skilled workers (EB3-EW) in places like China and Vietnam for people who are not already in the USA. I'm sure you've seen PERM mentioned for Cleaners, Fish Cutters, Meat packers etc. I've not tried to analyze any increase in these over time. To a certain extent, these numbers might not be too worrisome, since EB3-EW has an overall limit of 5k per year of the 40k total and EB3-EW is very retrogressed for China (about 11 years).

If I had to guess (and it is not based on any analysis - just gut feel), I would say that EB3-I should be alright for decent spillover in FY2017, but might start to come under increasing pressure in future years if the current trend continues. I could be completely wrong and wouldn't argue a contrary view.

[anuprab]

Thanks once again Spec for a very logical explanation. I just hope Eb3I clears the 06-07 mess soon. I know I am being selfish but would you blame me after waiting for 11 years? fingers cross for all Eb3I waiting for more than a decade.